Publication:
Working Papers (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
1996-2023
These papers are written by San Francisco Fed economists, in some cases in collaboration with outside economists. They represent work prepared for later publication or presentation to professional meetings.
- 1990s
- 2000s
- 2010s
- 2020s
- The International Transmission of Shocks : Foreign Bank Branches in Hong Kong during Crises, Working Paper 2014-25
- A Risk-based Theory of Exchange Rate Stabilization, Working Paper 2016-15
- Measuring News Sentiment, Working Paper 2017-01
- The TIPS Liquidity Premium, Working Paper 2017-11
- Interest-Rate Liberalization and Capital Misallocations, Working Paper 2017-15
- Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises, Working Paper 2017-23
- What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates : Evidence from Derivatives Prices, Working Paper 2018-03
- Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier, Working Paper 2018-04
- Optimal Capital Account Liberalization in China, Working Paper 2018-10
- Taylor Rule Estimation by OLS, Working Paper 2018-11
- Efficiency in Sequential Labor and Goods Markets, Working Paper 2018-13
- Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability : Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?, Working Paper 2018-14
- Taking the Fed at its Word : A New Approach to Estimating Central Bank Objectives using Text Analysis, Working Paper 2019-02
- Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches, Working Paper 2019-03
- Job-Finding and Job-Losing : A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics, Working Paper 2019-05
- A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents, Working Paper 2019-11
- Market-Based Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Working Paper 2019-12
- Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends, Working Paper 2019-16
- Robots or Workers? A Macro Analysis of Automation and Labor Markets, Working Paper 2019-17
- Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Flatter Phillips Curve, Working Paper 2019-27
- The Safety Premium of Safe Assets, Working Paper 2019-28
- Medicaid Expansion and the Unemployed, Working Paper 2019-29
- The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy, Working Paper 2020-01
- Probability Assessments of An Ice-Free Arctic : Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections, Working Paper 2020-02
- The Transmission of Monetary Policy Under the Microscope, Working Paper 2020-03
- Exchange Rate Misalignment and External Imbalances : Optimal Monetary Policy Response?, Working Paper 2020-04
- Why Is Current Unemployment So Low?, Working Paper 2020-05
- An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect", Working Paper 2020-06
- Banks, Maturity Transformation, and Monetary Policy, Working Paper 2020-07
- Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence, Working Paper 2020-08
- Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics, Working Paper 2020-09
- Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises : An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach, Working Paper 2020-10
- Disasters Everywhere : The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered, Working Paper 2020-11
- Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier, Working Paper 2020-12
- The Costs of Payment Uncertainty in Healthcare Markets, Working Paper 2020-13
- Capital Controls and Income Inequality, Working Paper 2020-14
- Learning About Regime Change, Working Paper 2020-15
- Innovative Growth Accounting, Working Paper 2020-16
- World Productivity : 1996 - 2014, Working Paper 2020-17
- Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy, Working Paper 2020-18
- Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?, Working Paper 2020-19
- Why Has the Us Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?, Working Paper 2020-20
- Average Is Good Enough : Average-Inflation Targeting and the ELB, Working Paper 2020-21
- Does Disappointing European Productivity Growth Reflect a Slowing Trend? Weighing the Evidence and Assessing the Future, Working Paper 2020-22
- Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread of Covid-19, Working Paper 2020-23
- Replicating and Projecting the Path of Covid-19 With a Model-Implied Reproduction Number, Working Paper 2020-24
- The Rising Cost of Climate Change : Evidence from the Bond Market, Working Paper 2020-25
- The Credit Line Channel, Working Paper 2020-26
- Bank Risk-Taking, Credit Allocation, and Monetary Policy Transmission : Evidence from China, Working Paper 2020-27
- Reservation Benefits : Assessing Job Acceptance Impacts of Increased Ui Payments, Working Paper 2020-28
- A Simple Framework To Monitor Inflation, Working Paper 2020-29
- Competitive Effects of IPOs : Evidence from Chinese Listing Suspensions, Working Paper 2020-30
- Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory, Working Paper 2020-31
- New-Keynesian Trade : Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks, Working Paper 2020-32
- Learning in the Oil Futures Markets : Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications, Working Paper 2020-33
- The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters, Working Paper 2020-34
- Accounting for Low Long-Term Interest Rates : Evidence from Canada, Working Paper 2020-35
- Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy, Working Paper 2020-36
- Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier : It's in the Sign, Working Paper 2021-01
- Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns With Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion, Working Paper 2021-02
- Clouded in Uncertainty : Pursuing Financial Stability With Monetary Policy, Working Paper 2021-03
- Parents in a Pandemic Labor Market, Working Paper 2021-04
- The Economic Status of People With Disabilities and Their Families Since the Great Recession, Working Paper 2021-05
- Climate Policy Transition Risk and the Macroeconomy, Working Paper 2021-06
- Seawalls and Stilts : A Quantitative Macro Study of Climate Adaptation, Working Paper 2021-07
- Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets : Evidence from Mexico, Working Paper 2021-08
- The Impact of Covid on Potential Output, Working Paper 2021-09
- Small Business Lending Under the PPP and PPPLF Programs, Working Paper 2021-10
- The Economic Gains from Equity, Working Paper 2021-11
- Communicating Monetary Policy Rules, Working Paper 2021-12
- Ui Generosity and Job Acceptance : Effects of the 2020 Cares Act, Working Paper 2021-13
- Monetary Policy Spillovers Under Covid-19 : Evidence from U.S. Foreign Bank Subsidiaries, Working Paper 2021-14
- Fiscal Foresight and Perverse Distortions To Firm Behavior : Anticipatory Dips and Compensating Rebounds, Working Paper 2021-15
- Dynamic Labor Reallocation With Heterogeneous Skills and Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk, Working Paper 2021-16
- The Unemployed With Jobs and Without Jobs, Working Paper 2021-17
- From Deviations To Shortfalls : The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective, Working Paper 2021-18
- International Evidence on Extending Sovereign Debt Maturities, Working Paper 2021-19
- The Inexorable Recoveries of U.S. Unemployment, Working Paper 2021-20
- Productivity Slowdown : Reducing the Measure of Our Ignorance, Working Paper 2021-21
- Turbulent Business Cycles, Working Paper 2021-22
- Pricing Poseidon : Extreme Weather Uncertainty and Firm Return Dynamics, Working Paper 2021-23
- Central Bank Credibility During Covid-19 : Evidence from Japan, Working Paper 2021-24
- On the Inefficiency of Non-Competes in Low-Wage Labor Markets, Working Paper 2022-01
- Sellin' in the Rain : Weather, Climate, and Retail Sales, Working Paper 2022-02
- The Road of Federal Infrastructure Spending Passes Through the States, Working Paper 2022-03
- Fiscal Stimulus and Commercial Bank Lending Under Covid-19, Working Paper 2022-04
- Automation, Market Concentration, and the Labor Share, Working Paper 2022-05
- Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds, Working Paper 2022-06
- The UK Productivity "Puzzle" in an International Comparative Perspective, Working Paper 2022-07
- Dale W. Jorgenson : An Intellectual Biography, Working Paper 2022-08
- In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate, Working Paper 2022-09
- Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies, Working Paper 2022-10
- Housing Demand and Remote Work, Working Paper 2022-11
- Making Sense of Negative Nominal Interest Rates, Working Paper 2022-12
- Dynastic Home Equity, Working Paper 2022-13
- Evergreening, Working Paper 2022-14
- A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation, Working Paper 2022-15
- House Price Responses To Monetary Policy Surprises : Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data, Working Paper 2022-16
- Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic, Working Paper 2022-17
- Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation, Working Paper 2022-18
- The Impact of Covid on Productivity and Potential Output, Working Paper 2022-19
- Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures : The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics, Working Paper 2022-20
- Understanding Climate Damages : Consumption versus Investment, Working Paper 2022-21
- Fiscal Stimulus Under Average Inflation Targeting, Working Paper 2022-22
- Fiscal Policies for Job Creation and Innovation : The Experiences of U.S. States, Working Paper 2023-01
- Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support To Households and Firms, Working Paper 2023-02
- A Denial a Day Keeps the Doctor Away, Working Paper 2023-03
- The Benefit of Inflation-Indexed Debt : Evidence from An Emerging Bond Market, Working Paper 2023-04
- State-Dependent Local Projections : Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity, Working Paper 2023-05
- Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability, Working Paper 2023-06
- The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies : Common Shocks Or Common Trends?, Working Paper 2023-07
- Labor Market Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions, Working Paper 2023-08
- The Canary in the Coal Decline : Appalachian Household Finance and the Transition from Fossil Fuels, Working Paper 2023-09
- The Quality-Adjusted Cyclical Price of Labor, Working Paper 2023-10
- The Transmission of Negative Nominal Interest Rates in Finland, Working Paper 2023-11
- A Local Projections Approach To Difference-In-Differences Event Studies, Working Paper 2023-12
- Targeted Reserve Requirements for Macroeconomic Stabilization, Working Paper 2023-13
- Decomposing the Monetary Policy Multiplier, Working Paper 2023-14
- Significance Bands for Local Projections, Working Paper 2023-15
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Current working papers can be found at https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/working-papers/
1996-2023
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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