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August 29, 2019 Mr. Oliver Giesecke Columbia University 3022 Broadway New York, NY 10027 Dear Mr. Giesecke: This letter is in response to your Freedom of Information Act (“FOIA”) request dated and received by the Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC” or “Committee”) FOIA Service Center on June 10, 2019. On August 1, 2019, you refined your request via email. Pursuant to the FOIA, 5 U.S.C. § 552, your request stated: According to the Romer and Romer (2004) AER article there exist two “internal memos from the Federal Reserve showing the ‘expected federal funds rate.’ One covers the period from January 1971 to December 1984 and the other covers the period from December 1983 to September 1992. These memos are based on the Weekly Report of the Manager of Open Market Operations. In addition to numerical values, the memos contain brief remarks about the timing of moves and where, within a given range, the open market desk was aiming. These remarks make it clear that the series reflects Federal Reserve intentions rather than passive expectations or forecasts.” Staff members searched and located one document that appears to contain the information you requested. An internal memo dated February 20, 2003, includes a collection of eight series showing the expected federal funds over (and beyond) the time span in which you are interested. While the years covered in this document do not match the specific date ranges in your request, it is likely that truncated versions of two of the included series are the documents referred to in your request. Given your interest in this topic, you may also find useful an FOMC document titled “A Modern History of FOMC Communication,” (June 24, 2003), available on the FOMC’s public website at this location: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20030624memo01.pdf Your request is hereby granted in full. 1 Please let me know if I can be of further assistance.  1  If you have any questions, you may contact the FOMC FOIA Public Liaison at (202) 973-7400.  FOMC FOIA Tracking No. 2019-019  -2-  Sincerely, [Signed] Peter Garavuso FOMC FOIA Service Center Attachment  FOMC FOIA Tracking No. 2019-019  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Strictly Confidential (FR) Class I - FOMC  BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM DIVISION OF MONETARY AFFAIRS  Date:  February 20, 2003  To:  Normand Bernard, James Clouse, Athanasios Orphanides, Sherry Edwards, Gary Gillum, Matt Luecke and Jeff Slone  From:  David Lindsey  Subject:  Meeting next Tuesday at 10:00 am  I have scheduled a meeting in my office on Tuesday, February 25 at 10:00 am to discuss the intended funds rate in the following attachments, which give:  1) A New York Desk series that Sherry oversaw. 2) Bonnie Garrett's series, as shown in a) a memo. b) a chart by Matt. 3) A series from Rudebusch (1995) from Thorton and Wheelock (appendix B table Bl). 4) Bonnie's series from Thornton. 5) The Open Market Operations series on the funds rate target from the Board's web site in a) a table. b) a chart. 6) A series by Wrightson. 7) A series from Jeff Slone via Jim Clouse used for event studies. 8) The series on the operating targets for the funds rate and borrowing chosen by the FOMC, as prepared after each FOMC meeting by the Secretariat.  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  HISTORICAL CHANGES OF THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE & THE DISCOUNT RA TE (1971-PRESENT)  i  I  DATE  11971 jJanuary 7  DISCOUNT RATE  ICHANGE I 11-1/4  CHANGE  NEW LEVEL  Is  NEW LEVEL/RANGE  114  January 8  -1/4  4 1/2  January 12  -1/4  4 1/4  1-1/4 -1/4  114 13 3/4  January 18-22  -1/4  5  late January early February February 12-19  -1/4  I  early July July 15-16 mid August  I I  -1/4  February 19 jMarch to early July  +1/4  I  5  I  gradual increase  5 to 5 1/2  -0 to 1/4  5 to 5 1/4  to 1/4  5 to 5 1/2  gradual decrease  5 to 5 1/8  days prior to November 10  -0 to 1/8  5  November 12  -1/4  4 3/4  late November  cut to midpoint of 41/4to47/8  -1/4  cut to slightly below midpoint of  4 1/4 to 4 7/8  December 16  decrease  4 1/8  December 17  -1/8  4  mid December to Febrnary 1972  gradual decrease  3 1/2  December 10-17  I  to 5 3/4  +1/2 to 1/4  September to October November! 0-19  I  FEDERAL FUNDS RATE  II  -1/4  4 1/2  i  1972 March to late December  1973  gradual increase  5 1/2 to 5 3/4  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  lea1,y January jJ anuary 12-15  ]  I !1+112  Is  +1/4 to 0 -  5 3/4  +Oto 1/8  4 [O::,  1  7/8  January 19  + 1/4 to 1/8  late January  gradual increase  mid February  +1/8  6 1/2  +l/8 to 1/4  6 5/8 to 6 3/4  +l/8 to 0  6 3/4  +Oto 1/4  6 3/4 to 7  February 23-26 !early March  +1/2  5 1/2  I  II  mid March ll+l/4  5 3/4  May4 May 10-11  116 3/8  7  late March April 20 to May 4  6  +1/4  6  May 18 late May  +1/4  7 1/4  +Oto 1/4  7 1/4 to 7 1/2  itoO  17 1/2  8  7 7/8  +3/8  8 1/4  June 8-11  +1/2  6 1/2  +1/4  June 29 to July 2  +1/2  7  +3/4  ' 1/2 } 1/4  +1/4  9 1/2  mid July  gradual increase  10 to 10 1/4  late July  +1/2 to 1/4  10 1/2  !July 6  August13-14  I +1/2  7 1/2  late August  1/2  11  September to February '74  radual decrease  9  1974  ,,  March to mid April  gradual increase  days prior to April 24  +1/2 to 3/4  !April 24-25  j+l/2  10  I  1/2 to 10 3/4  8  April 25  +l/2 to 1/4  11  late May to mid July  gradual increase  13  late July to late November  gradual decrease  9 1/4  late November December 6-9 December 9 mid to late December late December  1975  -1/4  I  17 3/4  1~to0 -0 to 1/4  ~oO  !I  9 8 3/4 to 9  ial decrease  11-1/4  I  18  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  7 1/4  -1/2  January 3 - 10  -1/2  January 10  -1/4  17 1/2 7 1/4  mid January  gradual decrease  6 3/4 to 7  days prior to February 4  -1/4 to 1/2  6 1/2  -1/4  6 1/4  February 6 !late February  I -1/2  March 7-10  i  II  4  -1/2  February 4-5  I  6 1/4  March 21  I  I I  -1/4  6  -1/4  5 3/4  -1/4  5 1/2  I  i  I  I I  late April  I  early May  ~toO -1/4  May 15-16  5 to 5 1/4  I  6  I  early June  +1/4 to 0  5 1/4  mid June to mid September =  gradual incr  6 1/4 to 6 1/2  !October to early January '76  11976 !January 12 January 16-19  gradual decrease  I  I I I  /8  I  I I  I  I I  -1/2  -1/8  I  4 3/4  I  5 1/2  April 21  +1/8  May  gradual increase  5 1/2  I  July to early October  gradual decrease  Is  Ii  mid October  -1/8  5  November 19-22  -1/4  5 1/4  118  1977 +1/8 1+1/2  1  6  s 3/4 8  6 1/8  September 20  +-1/8  6 1/4  mid October  --1/4  6 1/2  mid September  October 25-26  11978  !:  !  mid August August 29-31  I  l I  4 3/4 . . 5 7/8 gradual increase  early December to early August '77  i  '  -1/8 -1/8  November 26  I  +1/4  D  6  I  :  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  January 6-9  +1/2  6 1/2  January 9 April 19  ~  6 3/4 17 7 1/8  +1/8  April 26 May 11  +1/2  '  I I  7 1/4  +1/8  April 27  I  i  i i  7  I  May 17  +1/4  7 1/2  June 21  +1/4  7 3/4  July 19  +l/8  7 7/8  August 16  +1/8  8  +Oto 1/8  8 to 8 1/8  I !  June 30 to July 3  August 18-21  +1/4  +l/2  7 1/4  7 3/4  1/4  to 1/8  August 25 September 8  I  +1/8  8 1/2  +1/8  8 5/8  +1/8  8 3/4  October 18  +1/4  9  days prior to November 1  + 1/2 to 3/4  9 1/2 to 9 3/4  jseptember 20 September 22  +1/4  8  September 29 October 13-16  November 1  +1/2  11+1  19 1/2  mid November jDecember 20  +3/8 to 1/8  I  +1/8  1979  ~  1+1/4  '.I 1110 1/4  +1/4  10 1/2  +1/8  10 5/8  +3/8  11  late August  +1/4  11 1/4  August 31  +1/8  11 3/8  +1/8  11 1/2  late April July 20  +1/2  10  July 27 jAugust 15 August 16-17  September 18-19  I +1/2  +l/2  10 1/2  11  September 19 October 6-8  i+l  jiate October  12 + 1 1/2  October 8  I  ''  8 1/2  +2 1/2  I13 15 1/2  r  I I:  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  I  !November to December  gradual decrease  I  j12 to 14  1980 I  gradual increase= 14  early to late January  l  /2 to l  13  Febrnary 15  increa;-,,  late February to late March  14 1/2 to 15  '  !  1120  '  I  April to mid May  d e c r e ~ to l l l/2 -1 to 3/4  May22  i  12  -1  May 28-30  o 10 3/4 I  -1 to 1 1/4  June 5  8 1/2 to 9 1/2 l  June 12-13  -1  11  July 25-28  -1  10  I  I  !August 7  I  mid September September 25-26  +1  1111  I I  + l 1/2 to 1/2  10  +1  11  +3/4 to 1  Ii  ~12  early October  !114 to 0  mid October to early November  gradual increase  November 7  +l 1/2 to l 1/4  15  +2 to 3  17 to 18  +2  19 to 20  -2  17 to 18  i  12  November 21 !December 4-5  !+1  !December 5  I I  11981  13 1/1 to 13 3/4 I  November 14-17  !December 29  11 I  !early to mid January  I I  !late January to mid April  I  May 4-5  13  t:,,eu  I  May 8  I  /mid June to mid October  I  /October 30 to November 2  1-1  !November 2  I  0  20  gradual decrease  16  raised to  18 to 20  14  +l  !late May  Luw,ud  I  gradual increase ]~ml decrease  /20 I14 1/2 to 15 1/2  13 13 to 14  -1 1/2  jmid to late November  l  /December 3-4  11-1  I12  jDecember 4  I  I  grdual decrease -1  i  13 12  I I  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  11982 jearly January to mid April  c:1  I  mid April to mid July July 19-20  -1/2  ",[~ '  11  -1/2  -  August 13-16  -1/2  ~1/2  August 16 August 26-27  -1/2  I  II -1/2 -1/2  9  November 22 December 13-15  -1  1 1/2 to 12  -1/2  11 1/2  I -1  10 to 10 1/2  -1/2 to 1  9 1/2  +1/2  10  ~  9 1/2  -1/2  9  -1/2  8 1/2  9 1/2  October 12 November 19-22  12 1/2 to 13  10  August 27 October 8-12  gradual decrease :  -1/2  August 2  jearly September  15  11 l/2  July 20 July 30 to August 2  gradual increase  8 1/2  '  1983  '  /') ·~ () 5/8  late May to mid August late August to early October  11984 jearly to late March  ual decrease  I I  gradual increase  March 29 April 6-9  + 1/4 to 1/2 +1/2  9 1/4 to 9 1/2  9  late June  3/4 to 10 10 to 10 1/2  + 1/2 to 0 /2  late July to late August  gradual increase  early September to mid October  gradual decrease  10  early November  -1/2  9 1/2  November 22  -1/2  9  early December  -1/4  Is 3/4 Is 114  November 21  December 21-24  -1/2  -1/2  ?  to 11 3/4  8 1/2  s  - l/2  I I  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  1985 mid February to mid March  l\gradual in  9  late March to early April  !gradual decrease  8 1/2  mid April  -1/4  8 1/4  -1/2  May 17-20  i  I  '  7 1/2 -1/2  May 20  oO  mid July late July to late August  f  gradual increase  September 6  +l/4to0  December 18  -1/4  0 1 '"'  7 3/4  3/4 to 8  1,  !  ,  ' 7 3/4  I  I  1986 i I  May7  -1/2  jApril 18-21  J-112  !late May jmid June  I I  JJuly 10-11  1-1/2  JJuly 11  I  7  -1/2  7 1/4  6 1/2  -1/2  6 3/4  i I  I  +Oto 1/8  3/4 to 6 7/8  6 -1/2  6 3/8 to 6 3/8  0 -1/2  1  5 1/2  August 21  -3/8 to 1/2  Is 7/8  late December  +1/8  6  1987 llgradual incre  late April to mid May September 3 September 4  +Oto 1/4 +l/2  6  in the weeks after October 19  3/4 to 7  ,+ 1/2 to 1/4  7 1/4  + 1/2 to 3/8  6 3/4 to 6 7/8  1988 late January to early February  I decrease · 6 1/2  late March to late June  I increase 1/8 to 1/4  mid July August 5 August 9 mid November  1r  I  to 0  mid August August 20-21  I I  12  6 1/2  7 1/2 7 5/8 to 7 3/4  + 1/8 to 0  7 3/4  + 1/4 to 1/2  8 to 8 1/4  +3/8 to 1/8  8 3/8  I  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  ll=e=a=rly~D=ec=e=m=b=e1=·====ll=======l\,======{11=+=1/=4=to=3/=8==9 1Il=8=5=/8=t=o=8=3=/4===~'/i  1989 ll==========ii=====ll=====H=======l~========l/ early January to early , February !gradual increase 9 1/4 to 9 3/8 February 23  + 1/4  February 24  + 1/2  7  9 1/2 to 9 5/8  + 1/4 to 1/8 -1/4 to 1/8 )decrease  19 1/2 to 9 5/8 8 1/4  July 13  -1/4  8  October 29  -1/4  7 3/4  November 14  -1/4  7 1/2  December 7  -1/4  early June  e:a.rl.y-J.uly....t9 mid December  1990  i  December 18-19  -1/2  6 1/2  -1/4  !December 19  7  1991 6 3/4 January 8 -1/4 ll=============~l=======ll======il======== ========l February 1 -1/2 6 -1/2  I  !March 8 -1/4 6 15 1/2 -1/4 5 3/4 April 30 -1/2 il=============~i======li====== ======91=========~ August 6 /4 5 1/2 ======ii===========lr September 13 -1/2 5 115 1/4  i  1  1  October 31  -1/4  5 !  41/2 -1/4 43/4 ! November6 -1/2 lr=D=e=c=e=m=b=er=6======,r======tr======\:==l/=4=======ti=4=1=/2========! lr===========,i=====li======\i=======;:ji==========J: December 20 -1 13 1/2 1-1/2 4 li==19=92=====,r=======:r======1i=========,lf=====I! April 9 i-114 3 3/4 li=============,i=====li======ii=======;:j~=========l1 July 2 -1/2 3 -1/2 3 1/4 ii==============9i====={l======:1=========ell==========! September 4 -1/4 3  1993 No changes  i'  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  ---  1994 February 4  l+l/4  3 1/4  March 22  +1/4  3 1/2  April 18  +1/4  3 3/4  May 17  +1/2  3 1/2  +1/2  4 1/4  August 16  +1/2  4  +1/2  4 3/4  1+3/4  4 3/4  +3/4  5 1/2  +1/2  5 1/4  +1/2  6  July 6  }14  5 3/4  December 19  -1/4  Is 112  I  I  II  I  !November 15  1995 February 1  11996 !January 31  I 1-1/4  5  -1/4  5 1/4  +1/4  5 1/2  1997 March 25  1998 September 29 October 15  -1/4 -1/4  4 3/4  -1/4  Is 114 Is  UPDATED 10/14/98 The Federal Reserve did not target the federal funds rate as a means of implementing monetary policy during the period from October 1979 until the late 1980s. During that interim period, the federal funds rate was the result of market forces, in combination with other policy targets such as the degree of reserve pressure and targets for borrowed reserves. The FOMC for many years set a target range for the federal funds rate which it considered acceptable in the context of current policy. NOTE:A gradual increase (or decrease) indicates that the rate was increased (or decreased) in two or more steps. All data are based on available records, but this Bank does not guarantee their accuracy.  I I  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 April 20, 2000  Memorandum To:  Bill Gavin  From:  Bonnie Garrett  Date:  April 20, 2000  Re:  Additional Comments on "A History of the Asymmetric Policy Directive" by Daniel Thornton and David Wheelock  In revising their paper, Daniel Thornton and David Wheelock responded to questions regarding their federal funds target data by calculating test statistics for an additional data series and adding these results to several footnotes in their paper. To ascertain the changes in the "target" federal funds rate during most of the 1980' s, when that rate was not explicitly targeted by the FOMC, is not a simple task. We have researched that period by reviewing the Desk manager's reports to the FOMC, the transcripts, the directives, and the records of policy actions. 1 The results, as shown in the table below, are based on staff judgments regarding the consensus of the FOMC and should not be viewed as "official" in any sense. They should be cited as unofficial interpretations of FOMC policy changes. The table shows 84 policy changes over the 1983 through 1999 period. 2 Of course, the inclusion of federal funds rate changes that are not truly policy changes would bias the results.  1  This research has allowed a more reliable determination of the total number of funds rate changes, which had previously been referred to tentatively as "about 88." 2 For example, the change in the funds rate at the August 21, 1984 FOMC meeting was included in the new data used by the authors. However, Peter Sternlight stated in his report to the FOMC at that meeting, 'The upward creep in the Federal funds rate, from weekly averages around 11 to 11 1/.i percent through most of July to around 11 1/2 to 11 3/.l percent in recent weeks (and 11.78 percent so for this statement period) has been something of a puzzle, occurring against a background of average adjustment and seasonal borrowing at the discount window that remained fairly consistently around the $1 billion level."  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 April 20, 2000  There is also some concern about extending the analysis of asymmetry back to 1983. In i 983 and 1984, asymmetric language was included in some of the directives, but it was not used to guide intermeeting policy moves. There were only two intermeeting policy changes during those years, June 23, 1983 and November 2 i, 1984, the latter of which served to align FOMC policy with a cut in the discount rate. At the June 23, 1983 conference call, a consensus approved a modest increase in reserve restraint within the framework of the directive from the May 24, 1983 meeting.  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 April 20, 2000  FOMC Policy Changes "Expected" Funds Rate May 24, 1983  8.5 - 8.75  June 23, 1983  9 or slightly higher  July 12-13.1983  9 or somewhat higher (9 - 9.5)  October 4, 1983  9.25 - 9.5  March 26-27, 1984  10- 10.5  July 16-17, 1984  11.25  October 2, 1984  10.5 - 10.625  November 7, l 984  9.5  November 21, l 984  9  December 17-18, 1984  8.5  February 12-13, 1985  8.25 - 8.5  February 21, 1985  8.5  April 18, 1985  8.25  May 17, 1985  7.75  August l, 1985  7.75 or a shade higher  September 6, 1985  8  December 16-17, 1985  7.75  March 7, l 986  7.25 or a shade higher  April 18, l 986  6.75 or slightly higher  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 April 20, 2000  Date  ~'..L&RfCted" Funds Rate  June 5, 1986  6.875  July 10, 1986  6.375  August 14, l 986  6.25 - 6.375  August 20, 1986  5.875  January 15, 1987  6  April 30, 1987  61/z or somewhat higher  May 19, 1987  6~ or somewhat lower  September 3, 1987  6~ to 7  September 4, 1987  71/4  September 22, 1987  7 3/8  October 23, 1987  7  October 28, 1987  63/4 to 6 7/8  January 28, 1988  bl/2 to M~  February 9-10, 1988  61/2  March 29, 1988  M~  May 7, 1988  7  May 25, 1988  7114  June 22, 1988  71/2  August 9, 1988  8 to 8114  November 22, 1988  8 3/8  December 13-14, 1988  8 5/8 to 8 3/4  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 April 20, 2000  Date  "Expected" Funds Rate  Early January 1989  8 7/8 to 9  February 14, 1989  9 to 9 1/8  February 24, 1989  93/.i to 9 7/8  June 6, 1989  9V2 to 9 5/8  July 5-6, 1989  91,4  July 27, 1989  9  October 19, 1989  8*  November 6, 1989  81/2  December 18-19, 1989  814  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Intended Federal Funds Rate, 1983 - 1989  Percent  12  11  r······ 10  9  8  7  6 1983  1984  1985  1986  1987  1988  1989  FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ST. LOUIS  Daniel L. Thornton is a vice president and economist and David C. Wheelock is an assistant vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Heidi L. Beyer provided research assistance.  A History of the Asymmetric Policy Directive Daniel L. Thornton and David C. Wheelock he Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the Federal Reserve System's principal monetary T policy-making committee. At the conclusion of 1  each FOMC meeting, the Committee issues operating instructions, known as the "directive," to the Open Market Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. From 1983 through 1999, these instructions included a statement about the Committee's expectations for future changes in the stance of monetary policy, in addition to instructions for current policy. The statement pertaining to possible future policy was known as the "symmetry," "tilt," or "bias," of the policy directive. The directive was said to be symmetric if it indicated that a tightening or an easing of policy were equally likely in the future. Otherwise, the directive was said to be asymmetric toward either tightening or easing. Since February 1994, the FOMC has publicly announced changes in current monetary policy immediately upon making them. Before May 1999, public announcements made at the conclusion of FOMC meetings did not indicate whether the FOMC had issued an asymmetric directive. From May to December 1999, however, announcements following FOMC meetings included a statement of the Committee's expectation about the direction of future policy action, regardless of whether an action was taken at that meeting. This practice attracted considerable attention and much speculation about how to interpret statements about possible future policy changes. The Fed has never provided an official interpretation of these statements. To help clarify its intentions, the FOMC established a subcommittee to review both its policy directive and the public announcement following FOMC meetings. In January 2000, the FOMC announced that the public statement issued at the conclusion of future FOMC meetings will indicate any  immediate change in the stance of policy, as well as the Committee's assessment of the balance of risks between heightened inflation pressure and economic weakness over the foreseeable future. The new language, however, is not intended to indicate the likely direction or the timing of future policy moves. The January 2000 announcement appears to bring to a close a distinct period in the history of Federal Reserve operating procedures. This article will review the history and implementation of asymmetry in FOMC policy directives between 1983 and 1999. Researchers and market participants have suggested at least three interpretations of the FOMC's use of asymmetric language. One is based on the belief that the FOMC chairman has discretion to adjust the stance of policy by small amounts between FOMC meetings without consulting the full Committee. An asymmetric directive, according to this interpretation, granted the chairman authority to make larger intermeeting policy changes in the direction specified by the asymmetric language than he otherwise was permitted to make. A second interpretation holds that the issuance of an asymmetric directive indicated that the FOMC was more likely to change the stance of policy either before or at the next FOMC meeting, than if a symmetric directive had been issued. Asymmetric language also is thought to have indicated the most likely direction of the policy action. Some observers interpret asymmetry as pertaining just to the intermeeting period, while others contend that asymmetry signaled likely changes in policy at the next FOMC meeting. Before 1994, the FOMC often changed its policy stance between meetings. Since 1994, however, it has rarely done so, suggesting a possible change in the horizon over which asymmetric language pertained. A third interpretation is that asymmetric directives primarily were used to build consensus among the voting FOMC members. For example, if several members of the Committee desired to tighten policy 1  The FOMC consists of the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks. All Board members are voting members of the FOMC, and the Board chairman serves as FOMC chairman. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York serves as FOMC vice chairman, and is a permanent voting member. The presidents of the remaining Reserve Banks have four votes, which rotate among them on a fixed schedule. Appendix A contains a listing of the members of the Board of Governors and Federal Reserve Bank presidents who served between 1983 and 1999.  SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000  1  REVIEW  ----------·  CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED FEDERAL FUNDS RATE, 1983-99 When the FOMC implemented policy by establishing targets for the level of borrowed reserves, FOMC members and staff estimated the level (or range) of the federal funds rate expected to ::ie consistent with the Committee's borrowed reserves target. Hence, changes in the expected funds rate during this period could reflect either policy changes or technical adjustments associated with achieving a given level of borrowed reserves. The FOMC did not, however, maintain a strict borrowed reserves target throughout the period studied here. At times, the Committee placed greater emphasis on the federal funds rate than on the level of borrowed reserves and, by the early 1990s, the FOMC probably had largely abandoned the targeting of borrowed reserves in favor of targeting the federal funds rate exclusively.  In this paper, we employ two distinct sets of data on changes in the expected federal funds rate. Both sets are presented below (Tables B1 and B2). The information used to construct Th.bl es 1-3 in the text are derived from data in Rudebusch (1995) for 198493. These data have been used widely by researchers, and are based on Manager's Reports from the Open Market Trading Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Spence Hilton of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provided similar data to us for 1983. A second, unofficial series on the expected federal funds rate associated with FOMC policy changes during 1983-89 was provided to us by staff of the FOMC Secretariat's office. It also is presented below.  Expected Federal Funds Rate and Dates of Changes in Expected Rate Date of Change  Expected Funds Rate  Date of Change  Expected Funds Rate  Expected Funds Rate  Date of Change 03/07/1986  7.25  04/10/1986  7.125  07/20/1983  9.375  07/27/1983  9.4375  11/23/1984  9.5 9  08/17/1983  9.5625  12/06/1984  8.75  04/17/1986  7  08/24/1983  9.5  12/20/1984  8.5  04/24/1986  6.75  11/08/1984  10/05/1983  9.375  12/27/1984  8.125  05/22/1986  6.8125  03/01/1984  9.5  01/24/1985  8.25  06/05/1986  6.875  03/15/1984  9.875  02/14/1985  8.375  07/11/1986  6.375  03/22/1984  10  02/21/1985  8.5  08/14/1986  6.3125  03/29/1984  10.25  03/21/1985  8.625  08/21/1986  5.875 6  04/05/1984  10.5  03/28/1985  8.5  12/04/1986  06/14/1984  10.625  04/18/1985  8.375  04/30/1987  6.5  06/21/1984  11  04/25/1985  8.25  05/21/1987  6.75  07/19/1984  11.25  05/16/1985  8.125  07/02/1987  6.625  08/09/1984  11.5625  05/20/1985  7.75  08/27/1987  6.75 6.875  08/30/1984  11.4375  07/11/1985  7.6875  09/03/1987  09/20/1984  11.25  07/25/1985  7.75  09/04/1987  7.25  09/27/1984  11  08/22/1985  7.8125  09/24/1987  7.3125  10/04/1984  10.5625  08/29/1985  7.125  10.5  09/06/1985  10/28/1987  7  10/18/1984  10  12/18/1985  7.875 8 7.75  10/22/1987  10/11/1984  11/04/1987  6.8125  Table BI continued on next page  14  SEPTEMIU/OCTOBIR 2000  FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ST, LOUIS  Expected Date of Change  Funds Rate  Date of Change  Expected Funds Rate  Expected Date of Change  Funds Rate  01/28/1988  6.625  12/20/1989  8.25  07/06/1995  5.75  02/11/1988  6.5  07/13/1990  8  12/19/1995  5.5  03/30/1988  6.75  10/29/1990  7.75  01/31/1996  5.25  05/09/1988  7  11/14/1990  7.5  03/25/1997  5.5 5.25  05/25/1988  7.25  12/07/1990  7.25  09/29/1998  06/22/1988  7.5  12/19/1990  7  10/15/1998  5  07/19/1988  7.6875  01/09/1991  6.75  11/17/1998  4.75  08/08/1988  7.75  02/01/1991  6.25  06/30/1999  5  08/09/1988  8.125 8.25  03/08/1991  6 5.75  08/24/1999  5.25  11/16/1999  5.5  10/20/1988 11/17/1988  8.3125  04/30/1991 08/06/1991  11/22/1988  8.375  09/13/1991  5.25  5.5  12/15/1988  8.6875  10/31/1991  12/29/1988  8.75  11/06/1991  5 4.75  01/05/1989  9 9.0625  12/06/1991  4.5  02/09/1989  12/20/1991  4  02/14/1989  9.3125  04/09/1992  3.75  02/23/1989  9.5625  07/02/1992  3.25  02/24/1989  9.75  09/04/1992  3  05/04/1989  9.8125  02/04/1994  3.25  06/06/1989  9.5625  03/22/1994  3.5  07/07/1989  9.3125  04/18/1994  3.75  07/27/1989  9.0625  05/17/1994  4.25  08/16/1994  4.75  08/10/1989  9  10/18/1989  8.75  11/15/1994  5.5  11/06/1989  8.5  02/01/1995  6  SOURCES: for 1983-Hilton; for 1984-93-Rudebusch (1995); for 1994-99-FOMC minutes.  SEPTEMDER/OCTOHR 2000  15  REVIEW  Unofficial Staff Interpretations of FOMC Policy Changes Date of Change 05/24/1983 06/23/1983 07/13/1983 10/04/1983 03/27/1984 07/17/1984 10/02/1984 11/07/1984 11/21/1984 12/18/1984 02/13/1985 02/21/1985 04/18/1985 05/17/1985 08/01/1985 09/06/1985 12/17/1985 03/07/1986 04/18/1986 06/05/1986 07/10/1986 08/14/1986 08/20/1986 01/15/1987 04/30/1987 05/19/1987 09/03/1987 09/04/1987 09/22/1987 10/23/1987 10/28/1987 01/28/1988 02/10/1988 03/29/1988 05/07/1988 05/25/1988 06/22/1988 08/09/1988 11/22/1988 12/14/1988  Expected Funds Rate or Range 8.5-8.75 9 or slightly higher 9 or somewhat higher 9.25-9.5 10-10.5 11.25 10.5-10.625 9.5 9 8.5 8.25-8.5 8.5 8.25 7.75 7.75 or a shade higher 8 7.75 7.25 or a shade higher 6.75 or slightly higher 6.875 6.375 6.25-6.375 5.875 6 6.5 or somewhat higher 6.75 or somewhat lower 6.75-7 7.25 7.375 7 6.75-6.875 6.5-6.75 6.5 6.75 7 7.25 7.5 8-8.25 8.375 8.5-8.75  Date of Change  Expected Funds Rate or Range  Early 01 /1989 02/14/1989 02/24/1989 06/06/1989 07/06/1989 07/27/1989 10/19/1989 11/06/1989 12/19/1989  8.875-9 9-9.125 9.75-9.875 9.5-9.625 9.25 9 8.75 8.5 8.25  NOTE: The values for the federal funds rates were developed by the FOMC Secretariat on the basis of its review of FOMC meeting transcripts and other records that are available to the public, currently through 1994. The funds rates shown in the table for the period prior to rnid-1989 in most cases do not reflect a decision by the FOMC to target the rates in question. They are based on staff judgments regarding the consensus of the POMC and should not be viewed as "official" in any sense. In this paper, we assume that a target change occurred on each recorded date, including those for which a specific rate or range was not given, e.g., July 13, l 983.  16  SIPTUll(R/OCTOBER 2000  http://www. federal reserve .gov/ fomc/fundsrate. ht  FRB: Monetary Policy, Open Market Operations  ~deral Reserve Board Open Market Operations Open market operations--purchases and sales of U.S. Treasury and federal agency securities--are the Federal Reserve' s principd tool for implementing monetary policy. The short-term objective for open market operations is specified by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This objective can be a desired quantity of reserves or a desired price (the federal funds rate). The federal funds rate ~s the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. The Federal Reserve's objective for open market operations has varied over the years. During the 1980s, the focus gradually shifted toward attaining a specified level of the federal funds rate, a process that was largely complete by the end of the decade. Beginning in 1994, the FOMC began announcing changes in its policy stance, and in 1995 it began to explicitly state its target level for the federal funds rate. Under a policy announced on January 19, 2000, the FOMC issues, shortly after each of its meetings, a statement that includes its assessment of the risks in the foreseeable future to the attainment of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. For more information on open market operations, see the article in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (102 KB PDF).  Intended federal funds rate Cha11g~2 1990 to present Challge  (hasis 12oints) Date  Level Increase Decrease· (percent):  2002 November 6  50  1.25  2001 December  I of 3  11  25  1.75  November 6  50  2.00  October 2  50  2.50  September 17  50  3.00  August 21  25  3.50  June 27  25  3.75  2/19/03 3:02 P,\  FRB: Monetary Policy, Open Market Operations  http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.  May 15  50  4.00  April 18  50  4.50  March 20  50  5.00  January 31  50  5.50  January3  50  6.00  2000 Mayl6  50  6.50  March21  25  ci.00  February 2  25  5.75  November 16  25  5.50  August24  25  5.25  Jtlne30  25  5;00  1999  1998 November 17  25  4.75  October· 15  25  5:00  25  5.25  September 29  ...  1997 March25  25  5.50  1996 January 31  25  5.25  12  25  5.50  July 6  25  5.75  1995 December  February 50  6.00  November 15  75  5.50  August l6  50  4.75  May 17  50  4.25  April 18  25  3.75  March 22  25  3.50  25  3.25  1 1994  February  4..  2 of 3  2/19/03 3:02 P1\  FRB: M01ietary Policy, Open Market Operations  1992 September 4  http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.;  25  3.00  July 2  50  3.25  April 9  25  3.75  50  4.00  6  25  4.50  November 6  25  4.75  October 31  25.  5.00  September 13  25  5.25  August 6  25  5.50  April 30  25  5;75  March8  25  6.00  February 1  50  January 9  25  6.25 · · 6.75  December 18  25  7.00  December 7  25  7.25  November 13  25  7.50  October 29  25  7.75  July 13  25  8.00  1991 December 20 December  1990  A basis point is 1/100 percentage point.  Horne I Monetary policy  Accessibility I Contact Us  r:asTupdafo: JaiiuarY29, 2003  3 of 3  2/19/0, J:02 Pi\  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 Intended Federal Funds Rate Percent  10  8  6  4  2  1989  1990  1991  1992  1993  1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  0  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  I  Chronology of Federal Reserve Policy Changes Since 1987 Date of Tightening:  Duration (in months) Number of moves: Cumul. change in fed funds:  Easing:  Duration (in months) Number of moves: Cumul. change in fed funds:  Tightening:  Duration (in months) Number of moves: Cumul. change in fed funds:  Movement 2-Jan 9 1987 30-Apr 7 20-May 144 2-Jul 3-Sep 4-Sep 8-0ct 19-0ct 4 4 4-Nov 28-Jan -81 1988 I I-Feb 14 15 331  JO-Mar 9-May 25-May 22-Jun 19-Jul 8-Aug 9-Aug 10-Nov  22-Nov 1989  Easing:  Duration (in months) Number of moves Cumul. change in fed funds:  40 24 -681  1990  1991  1992  1993 1994  Tightening:  Duration (in months) Number of moves: Cumul. change in fed funds:  12 7 300  Easing:  Duration (in months) Number of moves: Cumul. change in fed funds: Duration (in months) Number of moves: Cumul. change in fed funds: Duration (in months Number of moves: Cumul. change in fed funds: Duration (in months) Number of moves: Cumul. change in fed funds:  7 3 -75 1996 NIA 1997 I 25 2 1998 3 -75 8 1999  1995  Tightening:  Easing:  Tightening:  4 100 2000  JS-Dec 5-Jan 9-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 17-Mav 6-Jun 7-Jul 27-Jul 22-Aug 6-Nov 20-Dec 13-Jul 29-0ct 16-Nov 7-Dec ,, 18-Dec 8-Jan 1:Feb 8-Mar JO-Apr 6-Aug 13-Sep J_Q_'.Oct 6-Nov 6-Dec 20-Dec 9-Apr 2-Jul 4-Sep (None) 4-Feb 22-Mar 18-Apr 17-May 16-Aug 15-Nov I-Feb 6-Jul 19-Dec 31-Jan 25-Mar  29-Sep 15-0ct 17-Nov JO-Jun 24-Aug 16-Nov 2-Feb 21-Mar  # of Days Since  Movement  Previous Move 134 118 138 43 63 I 34 II 16 85 14 48  In Fed Funds 13 50 25 -13 25 50 -6 -25 -25 -19 -13 25 25 25 25 19 6 38 13 JJ 31 3I 31 25 19 6  New Rate Levels  -25 -25 -25  Fed Funds 6 6 l/2 6 3/4 6 5/8 6 7/8 7 3/8 7 5/16 7 1/16 6 13/16 6 5/8 6 1/2 6 3/4 7 7 1/4 7 1/2 7 11/16 7 3/4 8 1/8 8 1/4 8 3/8 8 11/16 9 9 5/16 9 9/16 9 314 9 13/16 9 9/16 9 5/16 9 1/16 9 8 1/2 8 1/4 8 7 3/4 7 1/2 7 1/4 7 6 3/4 6 1/4 6 5 3/4 5 1/2 5 1/4  -25  5  -25 -25 -50 -25 -50 -25  4 3/4 4 1/2 4 3 3/4 3 1/4 3  518 46 27 29 91 91 78 155 166 43 419  25 25 25 50 50 75 50 -25 -25 -25 25  3 1/4 3 1/2 3 3/4 4 l/4 4 3/4 5 1/2 6 5 3/4 5 l/2  553  -25 -25 -25 25 25 25 25  5 Y, 5 4 '!. 5  25  6  40 16 28 27 20 l 93 12 23 21  35 14  I 82 20 31 20 26 76  44 205 108 18 21 II 21 24 35 53 98 38 47 7 30 14 Ill 84 64  16 33 225  55 84 78 48  -25 -25 -25 -6 -50 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -25 -50  -25  5 l/4 5 1/2  5 '!, 5 Y, 5 '!.  Discount n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c 6 n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c 6 l/2 n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c 7 n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c 6 1/2 n/c 6 n/c 5 1/2 n/c  5 n/c 4 1/2 n/c 3 1/2 n/c 3 n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c 3 1/2 4 4 314 5 1/4 n/c n/c 5 nlc  5 4 '/, 4 y, n/c 4 '!. 5 5 y. 5 y,  Note: The actual dat.::s of some po!11y changes pnor to 1994 are uncertain, The Fed did not formally announce policy changes at the tsme, and vanous sources do not always agree. Funds target levels prior to 1994 are also open to debate in same cases. Where Fed sources show A range rather than a single rate for the target, we have treated the midpoint of the range as the targel. Source: R.H. Wnghtson Associates, Inc.  I  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Date  Target Federal Funds Rate  03/05/84 03/15/84 03/22/84 03/29/84 04/05/84 06/14/84 06/21/84 07/19/84 08/09/84 08/30/84 09/20/84 09/27/84 10/04/84 10/11/84 10/18/84 11/08/84 11/23/84 12/06/84 12/20/84 01/24/85 02/14/85 02/21/85 03/21/85 03/28/85 04/18/85 04/25/85 05/16/85 05/20/85 07/11/85 07/25/85 08/22/85 08/29/85 09/06/85 12/18/85 03/07/86 04/10/86 04/17/86 04/24/86 05/22/86 06/05/86 07/11/86 08/14/86 08/21/86 12/04/86 04/30/87 05/21/87 07/02/87 08/27/87 09/03/87 09/04/87 09/24/87  9.50 9.88 10.00 10.25 10.50 10.63 11.00 11.25 11.56 11.44 11.25 11.00 10.56 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.38 8.50 8.63 8.50 8.38 8.25 8.13 7.75 7.69 7.75 7.81 7.88 8.00 7.75 7.25 7.13 7.00 6.75 6.81 6.88 6.38 6.31 5.88 6.00 6.50 6.75 6.63 6.75 6.88 7.25 7.31  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  10/22/87 10/28/87 11/04/87 01/28/88 02/11/88 03/30/88 05/09/88 05/25/88 06/22/88 07/19/88 08/08/88 08/09/88 10/20/88 11/17/88 11/22/88 12/15/88 12/29/88 01/05/89 02/09/89 02/14/89 02/23/89 02/24/89 05/04/89 06/06/89 07/07/89 07/27/89 08/10/89 10/18/89 11/06/89 12/20/89 07/13/90 10/29/90 11/14/90 12/07/90 12/19/90 01/09/91 02/01/91 03/08/91 04/30/91 08/06/91 09/13/91 10/31/91 11/06/91 12/06/91 12/20/91 04/09/92 07/02/92 09/04/92 02/04/94 03/22/94 04/18/94 05/17/94  7.13 7.00 6.81 6.63 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.69 7.75 8.13 8.25 8.31 8.38 8.69 8.75 9.00 9.06 9.31 9.56 9.75 9.81 9.56 9.31 9.06 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.00 3.75 3.25 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.25  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  08/16/94 11/15/94 02/01/95 07/06/95 12/19/95 01/31/96 03/25/97 09/29/98 10/15/98 11/17/98 06/30/99 08/24/99 11/16/99 02/02/00 03/21/00 05/16/00 01/03/01 01/31/01 03/20/01 04/18/01 05/15/01 06/27/01 08/21/01 09/17/01 10/02/01 11/06/01 12/11/01 11/06/02  4.75 5.50 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.50 5.25 5.00 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.75 1.25  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1979 Meeting Dates  Borrowing Symmetry Directive Federal Funds Assumption  Expected Rate 10 or slightly higher  February 6  maintain funds rate  March 20  raise/lower objective if aggregates high/low  10 or slightly higher  April 17  raise/lower funds rate if aggregates high/low  10 or slightly higher  May 22  raise/lower funds rate if aggregates high/low  10.25  July 11  raise/lower funds rate if aggregates high/low  10.25 DR raised to 10% on 7/20  10.5 (7/27)  August 14  raise/lower funds 11 funds rate if agg. high/low DR raised to 10.5% on 8/17 11.25 (8/30)  September 18  raise/lower funds rate if agg. high/low DR raised to 11% on 9/19  11. 5  October 6  restrain expansion in reserves  11.5 - 15.5  November 20  restrain  1,500 DR raised to 12% on 10/8 1,700  13 - 14  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 1980 Meeting Dates  Directive Svmmetrv Borrowing Assumption Federal Funds  January 8-9  expansion  February 4-5  expansion  March 18  expansion  April 22  expansion  1,375 13 - 19 10.5 - 19 (5/6) on 5/7, surcharge on DR removed  May 20  expansion  100 DR cut to 12% on 5/30 DR cut to 11% on 6/13  8.5 - 14  July 9  expansion  75 DR cut to 10% on 7/28  8.5 - 14  August 12  expansion  September 16  expansion  1,000  Expected Rate 11.5 - 15.5  1,250 11.5 - 15.5 DR raised to 13% on 2/15 11.5-16.5 (2/22) 11.5-17.5 (3/6) 11.5-18 (3/7) on 3/17, 3% surcharge on DR 2,750  13 - 20  75  8.5 - 14  750  8 - 14 11-11.25  DR raised to 11% on 9/26  October 21  maintain on 11/17,  November 18  maintain  1,500  December 18-19  maintain  1,500  1,300 9 - 15 DR raised to 12% plus 2% surcharge  13 - 17 l 13 - 18 (11/26) DR raised to 13% plus 3% surcharge on 12/5 15 - 20  1. The Committee also removed the provision subjecting reserves to an intermeeting range for the federal funds rate.  ...)  -  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1981 Meeting Dates  Directive Svmmetry Borrowing Assumption Federal Funds  Expected Rate  February 2-3  maintain  15 - 20  March 31  maintain on 5/5,  May 18  1,300  1,150 13 - 18 DR raised to 14% plus 4% surcharge  reserves to decelerate M-lB growth  2,100  18 - 20  1,500  15 - 21  July 6-7  maintain  August 18  maintain  October 5-6  maintain 850 DR surcharge cut to 2% on 10/13 DR cut to 13% on 11/2 DR surcharge removed on 11/17  13-14 13. 5  November 17  maintain DR cut to 12% on 12/4  400  11 - 15 12-13  December 21-22  maintain  300  12-12.5  1,400 15 - 21 DR surcharge cut to 3% on 9/22 12 - 17  -4-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1982 Meeting Dates  Directive Svmmetry Borrowing Assumption Federal Funds  February 1-2  some decline in M-1  1,500  14 - 15  March 29-30  accept some shortfall in M-1  1,150  14 - 15  May 18  maintain  800  14  June 30-July 1  more rapid 800 growth acceptable DR cut to 11.5% on 7/19 DR cut to 11% on 7/30 DR cut to 10.5% on 8/13  13 - 15  August 24  more rapid growth acceptable DR cut to 10% on 8/26  10.5  October 5  maintain 300 DR cut to 9.5% on 10/8  November 16  December 20-21  350  2 maintain twd firmer 250 DR cut to 9% on 11/19 DR cut to 8.5% on 12/14 maintain expansion  200  Expected Rate  11. 5  11 10.5  10 9.5 9.5 9  8.5 8.5  2. Somewhat slower growth ... would be acceptable and desirable somewhat more rapid growth in the broader aggregates would be tolerated.  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1983  t'.1~'-eting Dates  Directive Symmetry Borrowing Assumption Federal Funds  February 8-9  maintain  twd ease 3  March 2 8-29  maintain  twd ease  250  Ma:{ 24  increase twd ease reserve restraint only slightly  350  Expected Rate  8.5  200  8.5 8.5 - 8.75  400-500 (6/23)  9 or slightly higher 9 to 9.5  July 12-13  increase slightly reserve restraint  no tilt  600-800  August 23  maintain  no tilt  700-900  October 4  maintain sl. less restraint  November 14-15  maintain  twd firmer  December 19-20  maintain  twd firmer  9.5  650  9.25 - 9.5  650  9.25 - 9.5  650  9.25 - 9.5  3. Lesser restraint would be acceptable. [Characterizations of the degree of restraint that would/might be acceptable were initiated in 1983 FOMC meetings.]  -o-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1984 Meeting Dates  Directive Synunetry Borrowing Assumption Federal Funds  Expected Rate  January 30-31  maintain  9.25 - 9.5  March 26-27  maintain twd firmer 1,000 on 4/6 announced DR incr. to 9%  10 - 10.5 10.5  May 21-22  maintain  no tilt  1,000  10.5  July 16-17  maintain  twd firmer  1,000  11.25  August 21  maintain  no tilt  1,000  11. 5  750  10.5 - 10.625  twd ease  650  October 2  maintain twd ease lesser degree of restraint sought in recent weeks  November 7  reduce twd ease 575 9.5 somewhat on 11/21 announced DR cut to 8.5% 9  December 17-18  reduce  twd ease 300 on 12/21 announced DR cut to 8%  8.5 8 -  8.25  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019 Directives and Borrowing Ass.vn:1..iti.ons 1985 Meeting Dates  Directive  Symmetry  Borr12w~ng Asumriticm  Expected Rate Federal Funds  February 12-13  maintain reserve conditions of recent weeks  twd firmer  350  8.25 - 8.5  8.5 (2/21) 8.5 - 8.75 (3/20) March 26  maintain  no tilt  8.5 8.25 (4/18)  400  450 (4/25) DR cut to 7.5% announced on 5/17 May 21  maintain about the same degree  twd ease  7.75 7.75  350 (on 6/20)  7.75 or a shade lower  350 400 (on 8/1) shade higher  7.625 - 7.75 7.75 or a  July 9-10  maintain  August 20  maintain no tilt pressure of recent weeks  425  October 1  maintain no tilt pressure of recent weeks  500  8  November 4-5  generally to maintain  twd ease  450  8 or a shade lower  December 16-17  decrease somewhat  twd ease  350  7.75  twd firmer  7.75 - 7.875  500 ( on 9 / 6)  8  -8-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1986 Meeting Dates  Directive  Symmetry  Borrowing Assumption  Expected Rate Federal Funds  February 11-12  maintain  no tilt  300  7.75 or a shade higher 7.25 or a shade higher  DR cut to 7% announced on 3/7 April 1  maintain  300  no tilt  (on 4/10) DR cut to 6.5% announced on 4/18 May 20  maintain  no tilt  4  300 (on 6/5)  July 8-9  7.25 or a shade higher 7.25 6.75 or slightly higher  6.75 - 6-7/8 6. 875  decrease twd ease 300 5 somewhat DR cut to 6% announced on 7/10 (on 8/14)  6.875 6.375 6.25-6.375 6.25 - 6.375  decrease no tilt 300 6 slightly DR cut to 5.5% announced on 8/20  5.875  September 23  maintain  twd firmer  300  5.875  November 5  maintain  no tilt  300  August 19  (on 11/20) December 15-16  maintain  twd ease  300 (on 1/15/87)  5.875 5.875 or a shade higher 5.875 or a shade higher 6  4. Restraint acceptable if monetary growth does not slow and economic growth picks up. Less restraint acceptable if markedly slow money growth and slow economic growth. 5. Taking account of the possibility of a change in the discount rate. 6. Taking account of the possibility of a change in the discount rate.  -9-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions  Meeting Dates  Directive  S)l:mmetr)I:  Borrowing Assumption  February 10-11  Maintain  twd firmer  300  March 31  Maintain  one-way twd firmer  300  6  400 on 4/30 May 19  increase  July 7  7  Expected Rate Federal Funds  8  6 or slightly higher 6-1/2 or somewhat higher 6-3/4 or somewhat lower  twd firmer  500  maintain  no tilt  500  August 18  maintain  twd firmer  September 22  maintain pressure sought in recent weeks  no tilt  600 500 on Oct. 23 450 on Oct. 28  7-3/8 7 6-3/4 to 6-7/8  November 3  maintain pressure sought in recent days  twd ease  400 300 on Dec. 4  6-3/4 to 6-7/8  December 15-16  maintain  no tilt  300 250 on Jan. 28  6-3/4 to 6-7/8 6-1/2 to 6-3/4  500 600 on Sept. 3 increase in DR to 6 % on 9/4  6-1/2 to 6-3/4 6-1/2 to 6-3/4 6-3/4 to 7 7-1/4  7. Increased somewhat from the degree of pressure sought in recent weeks. 8. "Taking account of the possibility of a change in the discount rate." $500 M with no change in discount rate.  -10-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions  Expected Rate Federal Funds  Meeting Dates  Directive  Symmetry  Borrowing Assumption  February 9-10  maintain slightly reduced pressure sought in recent days  no tilt  200  6-1/2  March 29  increase slightly  no tilt  300 400 on May 7  6-3/4 7  May 17  maintain initially  twd firmer  400 500 on May 25 550 on June 22  7  increase slightly  twd firmer  600  7-1/2*  June 29-30  increase in DR to 6-1/2 on 8/9  7-1/4 7-1/2  8 to 8-1/4  August 16  maintain  twd firmer  600  8 to 8-1/4  September 20  maintain  twd firmer  600  8 to 8-1/4  November 1  maintain  twd firmer  600 400 on Nov. 22  8 to 8-1/4 8-3/8  December 13-14  increase somewhat  twd firmer  500 initially 600 early Jan.  8-5/8 - - 3/4 8-7/8 to 9  * A rate of 7-1/2 or slightly higher was expected initially but the actual level came in higher (because an increase in the discount rate was anticipated in the market) and the Desk's expectation was raised to 7-5/8 to 7-3/4 by midJuly (without any change in the borrowing assumption).  -11-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions  Meeting Dates  Directive  Symmetry .  February 7-8  maintain  twd firmer  March 28  maintain  May 16  maintain  Borrowing Assumption  Expected Rate Federal Funds  600 on Feb. 14 700 increase in DR to 7% on Feb. 24 500* on March 9  8-7/8 to 9 9 to 9-1/8 9-3/4 to 7/8 9-3/4 to 7/8  twd firmer  500  9-3/4 to 7/8  no tilt  600* 500  on June 6  9-3/4 to 7/8 9-1/2 to 5/8  decrease no tilt slightly  600** 550  on July 27  9-1/4 9 to 9-1/8  August 22  maintain  twd ease  550  October 3  maintain  twd ease  500* 400** 350* 300 250*  on on on on  200* 150"'  on Dec 11  July 5-6  November 14 December 18-19  maintain decrease slightly  twd ease no tilt  9 to 9-1/8 Oct Nov Nov Nov  19 2 6 8  9 8-3/4 8-1/2 8-1/2  125  * Borrowing assumption changed for technical reasons ** Change in borrowing assumption reflected a technical adjustment and a change in reserve pressure.  8-1/4  -12-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions  Meeting Dates  Directive  Symmetry  Borrowing Assumption  February 6-7  maintain  no tilt  150*  March 27  maintain  no tilt  150 200* 300*  on April 26 on May 3  350* 400* 450*  on June 14 on June 28  May 15  July 2-3  maintain  maintain  no tilt  twd ease  Expected Rate Federal Funds  8-1/4 8-1/4  8-1/4  8-1/4  450 400 on July 13 450* on July 26 500* on August 2  8  August 21  maintain  twd ease  500  8  October 2  maintain  twd ease  450* 400* on October 18 350** on October 29 300* on November 8  8  November 13  decrease slightly  twd ease  225** 200* 150* 125 100  December 18  decrease slightly  twd ease  7-3/4  125**  7-1/2 on on on on  November December December December  23 6 7 13  on December 19  reduction in DR to 6-1/2 on Dec. 19 * Borrowing assumption changed for technical reasons ** Change in borrowing assumption reflected a technical adjustment and a change in reserve pressure.  7-1/4 7  -13-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions  1991 Meeting Dates  Directive  Symmetry  Borrowing Assumption  100 on Jan. 9 reduction·in DR to 6 % on Feb. 1 (100 bor. retained) February 5-6  maintain  March 26  maintain  May 14.  July 2-3  August 20  October 1  November 5  maintain  maintain  maintain  maintain  decrease somewhat  twd ease  100 75 on March 8 125* on March 21  125 150* reduction in DR to 5-1/2% 175** 200*  maintain  6-3/4. 6-1/4. 6-1/4. 6 6  no tilt  no tilt  no tilt  on on on on  April 18 April 30 April 30 May 2  225* 250* 275* 325*  on June on June on June  13 20 27  325 350* 4.00* 375  on July on July on Aug.  11  5-3/4. 25 6  on on on on  Sept. 5 Sept. 12 Sept. 13 Sept. 13  325 300* 275* 250* 175**  on on on on  Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct.  twd ease  twd ease  5-1/2 5-1/2  375 350* 300* reduction in DR to 5% 325**  twd ease  twd ease  5-3/4. 5-3/4.  5-1/4. 5-1/4.  175***  reduction in DR to 4.-1/2% 150* 125* 100* 75 December 17  Expected Rate Federal Funds  on Nov. on on on on on  Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. Dec.  3 10 17 31  5  6  4.-3/4.  6 7 14. 29 6  4.-1/2  75  reduction in DR to 3-1/2% on Dec. 20 on Dec. 20 100 75* on Jan. 16  4.-1/2 4.  -14-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions  Meeting Dates  Directive  Symmetry  Borrowing Assumption 75*  on Jan. 16  February 4-5  maintain  twd ease  100*  March 31  maintain  twd ease  100 75 100*  on April 9 on April 30  100 125* 150* 225  on May 21 on May 28 on June 25  May 19  June 30-July 1  August 18  October 6  November 17 December 22  maintain  maintain  maintain  maintain  maintain maintain  no tilt  225 twd ease reduction in DR to 3% 225 250 twd ease  twd ease  twd ease no tilt  4  3-3/4 on July 2 on July 2 on July 30 on Sept. 2 on Sept. 4  175* 150* 125* 100* 75*  on on on on  50  4 3-3/4 3-3/4  250 225* 200  75 50*  Expected Rate Federal Funds  3-1/4 3-1/4 3 3  October 15 October 22 October 29 November 5 3  on December 10 3  * Borrowing assumption changed for technical reasons. ** Borrowing assumption changed to reflect an easing in reserve pressures associated with a partial pass-through of the effects of the reduction in the discount rate. ***Offsetting adjustments were made that left the borrowing assumption unchanged at $175 million; the assumption was raised by $25 million following a modest easing of 1/4 percentage point in the federal funds rate expectation at the FOMC meeting on November 5 and a 1/2 percentage point reduction in the discount rate announced before the opening of business on November 6 but was lowered by $25 million for technical reasons.  -15-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1993 Symmetry  Borrowing Assumption  Meeting Dates  Directive  February 2-3  maintain  no tilt  50  March 23  maintain  no tilt  50 75* 100*  Expected Fed Funds Rate 3 3  on April 22 on May 13  May 18  maintain  twd. firming  100 125* on May 20 150* on June 10 200* on June 24  3  July 6-7  maintain  twd. firming  225* 250* on July 22  3  August 17  maintain  no tilt  250  3  September 21  maintain  no tilt  250 225* 200* 150* 100*  November 16  December 21 *  maintain  maintain  no tilt  no tilt  100 150* 100* 75* 50* 50  Borrowing assumption changed for technical reasons.  3 on Oct. on on Nov. on Nov.  14 4 11 3  on on on on  Dec. 9 3  -16-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1994 Meeting Dates February 3-4 March 22  May 17  Directive  Symmetry  increase slightly  no tilt  increase slightly  no tilt  increase no tilt somewhat DR increased to 3-1/2  Borrowing Assumption  Expected Fed Funds Rate  3-1/4  75 100 125 on 4/18 150 on 5/5* 175 on 5/12*  3-1/2 3-3/4  200  4-1/4  225 on 5/26 325 on 6/23 July 5-6  August 16  maintain  twd firmer  increase no tilt somewhat DR increased to 4  325 375 425 450  November 15  maintain  twd firmer  increase no tilt significantly DR increased to 4-3/4  475 450 425 375 325 275 225  4-1/4  4-3/4  475 500 475  September 27  on 7/7 on 7/21 on 7/28  on 8/25 on 9/1 4-3/4 on on on on on on  10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27 11/3 11/10  225  5-1/2  175 on 11/24 125 on 12/8 December 20  maintain  twd firmer  125  5-1/2  -17-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1995  Meeting Dates Jan 31-Feb 1  Directive increase somewhat  Symmetry  Borrowing Assumption  no tilt  Expected Fed Funds Rate  75  6  75 100 on 4/13 150 on 4/27 175 on 5/11  6  DR increased to 5-1/ 4 March 28  maintain  twd firmer  May 23  maintain  no tilt  175 225 on 6/22  6  July 5-6  decrease slightly  twd ease  250 275 on 7/20  5-3/4  August 22  maintain  no tilt  275  5-3/4  September 26  maintain  no tilt  275 250 on 10/12 200 on 10/26 100 on 11/9  5-3/4  November 15  maintain  no tilt  100 75 on 11/23  5-3/4  December 19  decrease slightly  no tilt  75 50 on 1/11/96  5-1/2  -18-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1996 Meeting Dates January 30-31  Directive decrease slightly  Symmetry no tilt  Borrowing Assumption  Expected Fed Funds Rate  50  5-1/4  50  5-1/4  DR reduced to 5% March 26  maintain  no tilt  75 on 4/25 100 on 5/9 May 21  maintain  no tilt  150 175 on 6/2 225 on 6/20  5-1/4  July 2-3  maintain  twd firmer  300 325 on 8/1  5-1/4  August 20  maintain  twd firmer  325  5-1/4  September 24  maintain  twd firmer  300 250 on 10/10 200 on 10/24 100 on 11/7  5-1/4  November 13  maintain  twd firmer  5-1/4 75 on 11/21  December 17  maintain  twd firmer  75  5-1/4  -19-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1997 Expected Fed Funds Rate  Meeting Dates  Directive  Symmetry  February 4-5  maintain  twd firmer  75  5-1/4  March 25  increase slightly  no tilt  75  5-1/2  Borrowing Assumption  125 on 4/24 175 on 5/8 May 20  maintain  twd firmer  225 250 on 5/22 275 on 6/19 325 on 6/26  5-1/2  July 1-2  maintain  twd firmer  350 on 7/3 400 on 7/31  5-1/2  August 19  maintain  twd firmer  400 375 on 9/25  5-1/2  September 30  maintain  twd firmer  375 275 on 10/9 225 on 10/23 150 on 11/6  5-1/2  November 12  maintain  twd firmer  150 125 on 11/20 100 on 12/4  5-1/2  December 16  maintain  no tilt  100 50 on 1/15/98  5-1/2  -20-  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions 1998 Meeting Dates  Directive  Symmetry  Feb 3-4  maintain  no tilt  March 31  maintain  twd firmer  Borrowing Assumption  Expected Fed Funds Rate  50  5-1/2  75  5-1/2  lQO on April 9 May 19  maintain  twd firmer  125 150 on June 4 175 on June 18  5-1/2  June 30-July 1  maintain  twd firmer  175 225 on July 2  5-1/2  August 18  maintain  no tilt  5-1/2 250 on July 29 275 on Aug. 13 200 on Sept. 24  decrease  October 15  decrease [Intermeeting action, no vote] [Discount rate reduced to 4-3/4 on 10/15) 100 on Oct. 22 75 on Nov. 5  November 17  twd ease  175 125 on Oct. 8  September 29  75 decrease no tilt [Discount rate reduced to 4-1/2 on 11/17]  5-1/4 5  4-3/4  50 on Dec. 17 December 22  maintai'n  no tilt  50  4-3/4  - 21 -  Authorized for public release by the FOMC Secretariat on 8/29/2019  Directives and Borrowing Assumptions  1999 February 2-3  maintain  no tilt  March 30  maintain  no tilt  so so  4-3/4 4-3/4  75 on April 22 100 on May 6 May 18  maintain  twd firmer  4-3/4