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L a. . 3 : 5 ^ 5 3 Employment Projections for 1995: Data and Methods U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics April 1986 Bulletin 2253 Employment Projections for 1995: Data and Methods U.S. Department of Labor William E. Brock, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner April 1986 Bulletin 2253 F o r sa le by th e S u p erin ten d en t o f D ocu m en ts, U .S. G overnm ent P r in tin g Office W ash in gton , D.C. 20402 Preface This bulletin provides the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics employment projections for the year 1995. The bulletin contains three parts: The projections, the meth odology, and supplementary data. The projections are contained in four articles reprinted from the November 1985 issue of the M o nth ly L abor Review. Part II provides a discussion of projection methodology, covering each stage of the projection process. The tables in part III add the more detailed data that are most often requested by users. These projections are part of a program initiated 25 years ago to study alternative patterns of growth and their effects on employment in various industries and occupations. Previous economic and industry employ ment projections in this series were for the years 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, and an earlier version for 1995. Labor force and occupational projections have been done for a somewhat longer period. While the coverage in this bulletin is extensive, further detailed information, including data in machine-readable form, is available from the b l s Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections and from the National Technical Information Service. The authors of the Review articles are cited at the beginning of each article. The articles on methodology in part II were prepared by various members of the staff of the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projec tions. The tables in part III were compiled and prepared for publication by David Frank. Vivian Minor assisted in the preparation of the output and employment series. Manuscripts were prepared by Marilyn Queen. Material in this publication is in the public domain and, with appropriate credit, may be reproduced without permis sion. Contents Page Part I. Part II. Part III. Economic and employment projections to 1995 The economic outlook to 1995: new assumptions and projections................ The 1995 labor force: b l s ’ latest projections.............................................. A second look at industry output and employment trends through 1995 ......... Occupational employment projections: the 1984-95 outlook........................... Projection methods Overview....................................................................................................... Labor force................................................................................................... Aggregate economy....................................................................................... Final demand................................................................................................ Input-output model....................................................................................... Industry output and employment................................................................. Industry assumptions................................................................................ Occupational employment............................................................................. Supplementary data Tables: A-l. Values of selected aggregate economic variables, 1984, and assump tions for 1990 and 1995................................................................. Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force, 1984 and projected 1985-95: B-l. By age and sex.................................................................................. B-2. By race, age, and sex......................................................................... Appendix. 2 16 25 41 58 61 65 68 75 77 82 87 98 100 101 Final demand by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995: C—1. Gross national product................................................................. C-2. Personal consumption expenditures............................................... C-3. Gross private domestic investment................................................ C-4. Net exports of goods and services ................................................. C-5. Government purchases of goods and services................................ 115 Gross output and employment by industry, selected years, 1959-84, and projected 1995: D -l. Gross duplicated output................................................................ D-2. Wage and salary employment........................................................ 118 121 E-l. Wage and salary employment by detailed industry, 1984 and projected 1995.............................................................................. 124 Bureau of Labor Statistics input-output sectoring plan................................... v jq3 105 109 H2 129 Part I. Economic and Employment Projections to 1995 The economic outlook to 1995: new assumptions and projections With a base year o f1984 instead o f1982, the real G N P annual growth rate remains at 2 .9 percent in the middle scenario; productivity growth, however, is assumed to accelerate under the revised projections B etty W . S u The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its projections of the U.S. economy to 1995.1The new projections, with 1984 as the base year, approximate or parallel the previous projections, which were based in 1982. Once again, the focus is on the moderate-growth projec tion, characterized by strong productivity and investment growth, a declining unemployment rate, and a real annual rate of growth in gross national product ( g n p ) of 2.9 percent between 1984 and 1995. Two alternatives to the moderategrowth projection have also been developed: (1) higher pro ductivity-lower unemployment (high-growth), and (2) lower productivity-higher unemployment (low-growth). (For pre sentation simplicity these are labeled, particularly in the tables, as high, moderate, and low.) The two alternatives, discussed later in the article, are designed to provide a range of economic responses to a given policy mix for those meas ures of economic performance which most affect the in dustrial and occupational employment projections. Pro jected g n p growth for 1984-95 ranges between 2.2 percent for the low-growth alternative to 3.S percent for the high. Other alternatives, designed to examine the sensitivity of the projections to selected policy variations, are currently being explored. By 1995, under the assumptions used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, g n p is projected to range between $3.0 and $3.6 trillion (in 1977 dollars), with disposable personal income between $2.0 and $2.1 trillion, while civilian em ployment is projected to range between 116 and 126 million jobs. In all scenarios, annual rates of growth in g n p and employment slow in the latter half of the projection period. This reflects a slowdown in population and labor force growth after 1990.2 The unemployment rate is assumed to drop for all three versions, from 7.5 pereent in 1984 to 7.0 percent in 1995 for the low-growth alternative, to 6.0 percent for the moderate-growth version, and to 5.0 percent for the high. The following tabulation shows the rates of growth for selected key economic variables, historically and pro jected:3 R a te o f c h a n g e (in p e r c e n t): a c tu a l Real ................................ deflator ...................... Real disposable income .......................... Real disposable income, per ca p ita ___ Civilian labor force ........ Civilian em p loym en t___ Real output per person (productivity), all industries ...................... gnp Betty W. Su is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Norman C. Saunders, a senior economist in the same office, contributed the section on major assumptions. g n p 2 1 9 6 8 -7 3 1 9 7 3 -7 7 1 9 7 7 -8 4 3.4 5.1 2.0 7.3 2.6 6.9 4.3 2.2 3.1 3.2 2.6 2 .3 ' 1.2 2.6 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.5 tivity, and energy. Values for selected assumptions are shown in tables 1 and A-l. The assumptions for the moderate-growth scenario are briefly described here. ________ Average levels: actual________ Unemployment r a te .................. 1968 1973 1977 1984 3.6 4.9 7.1 7.5 Fiscal policy. Real defense purchases of goods and ser Rate o f change (in percent): projected 198 4 -9 0 1990-95 vices are assumed to increase at an annual rate of 5.3 percent between 1984 and 1990. After 1990, growth in defense expenditures is expected to taper sharply to the 1.0 to 1.5 percent annual real growth range. Real nondefense purchases of goods and services are as sumed to increase much less sharply during the rest of the 1980’s—up at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent to 1990. After 1990, this category of expenditures is expected to increase at the modest rate of 0.9 percent each year. A modest growth path for other Federal expenditure cat egories has generally been assumed. No real growth is as sumed for food stamp benefits, military retirement and veterans’ benefits, medicare payments, and Social Security payments during 1984-90. Growth in these categories is a combination of inflation adjustment and client population shifts. After 1990, some resumption of growth in all of the expenditure categories mentioned above is assumed—about 1 to 2 percent annually. Federal grants-in-aid to State and local governments and Federal subsidy programs are assumed to decline in real terms over the entire projection horizon. On the revenue side, effective personal tax rates are ex pected to remain virtually unchanged over the entire pro jection period at 10.7 percent of personal income. The recent trend toward lower effective tax rates on corporate profits is assumed to continue through 1995. Social insurance contributions will continue to raise their effective share of income—from 12.2 percent in 1984 to 14 percent in 1995—as currently mandated wage base changes and rate increases take effect over the next decade. The net effect of these assumptions is a level of Federal expenditures which drops from 24.4 percent of g n p in 1984 to 23 percent by 1995, and a level of receipts that increases from 19.4 percent of g n p in 1984 to 20.2 percent by 1995. The deficit remains high throughout the projection period, but it declines as a proportion of g n p , from 5 percent in 1984 to 3 percent in 1995. High Moderate Low High Moderate Low 2.2 2.8 2.2 3.5 3.0 4.0 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.0 5.3 g n p deflator . . . . Real disposable 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.1 income ........ . 2.7 Real disposable income, per 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.6 capita............ . 1.8 Civilian labor 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.3 force ............ . 1.5 Civilian 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.5 1.5 employment . . 1.8 Real output per person (pro ductivity), all 1.7 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.9 industries . . . . 2.4 Real g n p ........... . Average levels: projected 1995 1990 Unemployment rate ............ High Moderate 5.9 6.3 Low High 7.5 5.0 Moderate Low 6.0 7.0 The first section of the article describes the major as sumptions underlying b l s ’ demand projections. The second and third sections discuss the projected aggregate and in dustrial demand trends for the moderate-growth scenario. The fourth section describes the results of the high- and low-growth alternatives. Finally, the last section compares the current projections with the previous 1995 projections. Detailed explanations of the methodology for the projec tions are given in part II of this bulletin. Part III presents supplementary data. Major assumptions An important focus of the b l s projection program is the structure of industrial and occupational employment. Influ encing that structure is the demand for the goods and ser vices of individual industries. The Bureau uses two steps to project industrial demand: (1) projections of aggregate economic trends, and (2) the disaggregation of these ag gregate trends into purchases from specific industries. The aggregate economic projections—projections of g n p and its major components—are based on assumptions de veloped by b l s used in conjunction with the Wharton long term macroeconomic model.4 Trends in g n p and its major components are determined in the model by the interaction of a range of factors: income elasticity, money supply, in flation, interest rates, Federal policies, and so forth. In addition, numerous assumptions are required for fiscal and monetary policies, demographics, foreign economic ac Monetary policy. Monetary policy is best described as accommodative. Money supply growth has been set to par allel projected growth in nominal g n p . Thus, monetary pol icy does not interrupt growth by being too restrictive nor is it required to combat a resurgence of inflation. The money supply, which largely determines the level of interest rates, coupled with the decline in the Federal deficit as a percent of g n p , brings both short- and long-term interest rates down, dropping about 3 to 4 percentage points over the 10-year horizon of the projections. Demographic changes. The population projections un derlying the aggregate projections are the middle range pub 3 lished by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in 1983. The labor force projections, middle scenario, described in the article by Howard N Fullerton, are also incorporated in the moderate growth aggregate projections. from a high of 115.0 in 1980 to 71.5 in 1984. The decline is assumed to continue in 1985, but at a much lower rate. After 1985, the exchange rate is projected to turn around. This implies a smooth decrease in the value of the dollar vis-a-vis other currencies, back to approximately the 1980 level by 1995. Foreign activity. Estimates of imports and exports are af fected in the projections by both domestic and foreign eco nomic activity. It is assumed that real economic growth for the major trading partners of the United States would more or less parallel real U.S. g n p growth. World gross domestic product (less that of the United States and centrally planned economies) is assumed to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent between 1984 and 1990, and at a rate of 2.7 percent during 1990-95. The average gross domestic prod uct deflator for the same economic grouping is assumed to increase at 5.6 percent annually during 1984-90 and 5.1 percent annually for 1990-95. Since 1980, the weighted average exchange rate for the U.S. dollar has been declining at a very robust rate, dropping Energy. The barrel price (in 1984 dollars) of imported crude (freight on board) is assumed to decline from $28 per barrel in 1984 to $23 in 1995. Unemployment. A target path for the civilian unemploy ment rate was also selected. A smooth decline is assumed, from 7.5 percent in 1984 to 6.3 percent in 1990 and 6.0 percent in 1995. General assumptions. The further assumptions of smooth growth with no business cycle fluctuations, and lack of major economic upheavals, such as major wars and price shocks, are also included. The sensitivity of projections to assumptions Users of the Bureau of Labor Statistics projections should keep in mind that b l s (or others preparing similar projections) must make many judgments regarding the probable behavior of those factors which affect the future course of the U.S. economy. In addition, b l s must make judgments about the response of the various models to the primary assumptions. In short, while projections preparation and the use of models in preparing these projections may sound precise and scientific when de scribed, developing economic projections is still very much an art filled with uncertainty. The assumptions made by b l s cover a broad range, from those about which we may be reasonably certain, to those which are not at all predictable. The role of b l s in preparing these projections is to exercise judgment with regard to reasonable expectations for the assump tions, tempered by a knowledge of the sensitivity of the various models to those assumptions. That is, if a par ticular assumption is highly uncertain, yet has little im pact on the outcome of the projections, it is important that the analyst be aware of this and also make that known to the users of the projections. A few examples may help to clarify this point. The future course of the youth labor force can have major effects on various occupational categories. Those who will be in this segment of the labor force in 1995 have all already been bom. Unless some major shifts in the factors underlying the decision to participate in the labor force take place or unless immigration for this age group swells, we can know with a great degree of certainty how large the youth labor force will be in 1995. Another demographic example is the share of the pop ulation accounted for by those aged 85 and over. This too can be predicted with a high degree of certainty. Unlike the prior example, however, even a substantial error in projecting this category of the population would have very little impact on the projection results because only a few of the group are in the labor force. A third example would be the manner in which the monetary authority is assumed to respond to economic developments. The responses of the Federal Reserve Board to various situations are quite uncertain in the future, and the distribution of demand g n p is also sensitive to those responses through their impact on the level of interest rates in the economy. A final example is the assumption regarding the sta tistical discrepancy in the National Income and Product Accounts. The measure of the difference between the income and product sides of the g n p accounts fluctuates widely from year to year and is subject to many nearterm factors which are very difficult to predict or even to quantify. Nonetheless, a serious error in this assump tion will have little noticeable impact on the projection results owing to the very small share of the g n p accounted for by this assumption. The b l s has long been aware of these issues. It is one of the reasons alternative projections are prepared. How ever, we feel that further work is necessary. Currently, we are preparing several studies aimed at exploring fur ther those assumptions to which the occupational em ployment projections are the most sensitive. The studies involve aggregate sensitivity analyses. In addition, sev eral industry-level studies examining the sensitivity of occupational demand to alternative technological and in stitutional assumptions are under way. These studies are scheduled for completion and release by mid-1986. 4 the 1982-84 period, while real consumer spending, despite high real interest rates, has surged at a 4.9-percent annual pace and gross investment at a 23-percent annual rate, paced by growth in equipment outlays. Under the moderate-growth assumptions, real g n p is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent during 1984-90. The rate of growth is projected to moderate after 1990, averaging 2.8 percent per year between 1990 and 1995, primarily in re sponse to slowing population and labor force growth. Total g n p and its various components are presented in table 2 in constant 1977 prices for selected years from 1973 to 1995.5 Consumption expenditures have traditionally accounted for the largest share of g n p and have shown the least var iation among the four major final demand sectors over time. However, because of the projected impact of higher income, new technology, changes in relative prices, and shifting population mix, consumers’ behavior is expected to show The disaggregation of the aggregate trends into purchases from specific industries is based on final demand “bridge tables”—that is, a set of percentage distributions of aggre gate final demand among industries. These tables transform demand estimates from the macro model to an input-output format. The projected changes in the bridge tables are based on reviews of studies of technological change, the relative output trends among industries, and the judgments of b l s analysts. Aggregate demand Gross national product consists of personal consumption expenditures ( p c e ), gross private domestic investment, for eign trade, and government purchases of goods and services. Since late 1982, when the recovery began, the growth of real g n p has accelerated to an annual rate of 5.2 percent in Table 1. Values of selected aggregate economic assumptions, 1976,1984, and assumed values for 1990 and 1995 19 9 0 19 9 5 19 8 4 19 76 Lo w M o d e ra te Lo w H ig h M o d e ra te H ig h F e d e r a l ( n u m b e r s in b illio n s ): D e f e n s e p u r c h a s e s , 1 9 7 2 d o lla r s ............................................................................................................................. N o n d e f e n s e p u r c h a s e s , 1 9 7 2 d o lla r s F o o d s t a m p b e n e f i ts , 1 9 7 2 d o lla r s 6 4 .4 9 2 .4 1 2 2 .0 1 2 2 .0 1 2 2 .0 1 2 9 .5 1 2 9 .5 1 2 9 .5 3 2 .4 3 1 .1 3 5 .4 3 5 .4 3 5 .4 3 7 .1 3 7 .1 3 7 .1 3 .3 4 .9 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 M ilita r y r e ti r e m e n t , 1 9 7 2 d o lla r s 1 6 .0 1 4 .9 1 5 .5 1 5 .5 1 5 .5 1 5 .9 1 5 .9 1 5 .9 M e d ic a r e p a y m e n t s , 1 9 7 2 d o lla rs 1 3 .8 2 6 .6 3 1 .8 3 1 .8 3 1 .8 3 8 .1 3 8 .1 3 8 .1 S o c ia l S e c u r i ty b e n e f i ts , 1 9 7 2 d o lla rs 5 6 .6 7 9 .1 880 8 8 .0 8 8 .0 9 3 .7 9 3 .7 9 3 .7 O t h e r tr a n s f e r s , 1 9 7 2 d o l l a r s ............................................................................................................................................ 1 8 .5 2 3 .4 2 5 .2 2 5 .2 2 5 .2 2 7 .9 2 7 .9 2 7 .9 O l d - a g e a n d s u r v iv o r s in s u r a n c e ta x a b le i n c o m e , c u r re n t d o l l a r s ......................... 1 5 ,3 0 0 3 6 ,6 0 0 5 6 ,1 0 0 5 6 ,1 0 0 5 6 ,1 0 0 7 8 ,6 0 0 7 8 ,6 0 0 7 8 ,6 0 0 ................................................................. 1 1 .7 1 4 .0 1 5 .3 1 5 .3 1 5 .3 1 5 .3 1 5 .3 1 5 .3 G r a n t s - i n - a i d , c u r re n t d o l l a r s ............................................................................................................................................ 6 1 .1 9 2 .5 1 2 6 .6 1 2 6 .6 1 2 6 .6 1 6 7 .2 1 6 7 .2 1 6 7 .2 S u b s i d i e s , c u r r e n t d o l l a r s ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 .8 2 4 .2 2 0 .4 2 0 .4 2 0 .4 2 7 .1 2 7 .1 2 7 .1 O l d - a g e a n d s u r v iv o r s in s u r a n c e c o m b in e d t a x rate T r a n s f e r s t o f o r e ig n e r s , c u r re n t d o lla rs In te re s t p a id to f o r e ig n e r s , c u r r e n t d o lla r s ............................................................................................... 3 .2 8 .0 9 .1 9 .1 9 .1 1 1 .0 1 1 .0 1 1 .0 4 .5 1 9 .4 2 6 .3 2 6 .3 2 6 .3 2 9 .0 2 9 .0 2 9 .0 9 0 .0 S ta te a n d lo c a l (n u m b e r s in b illio n s ): 7 1 .3 7 1 .4 7 8 .1 8 0 .6 8 2 .3 8 4 .1 8 8 .3 .......................................................................................... 2 8 .2 3 3 .1 3 6 .6 3 9 .0 4 0 .9 3 9 .7 4 3 .9 4 6 .1 S a f e t y p u r c h a s e s , 1 9 7 2 d o lla rs 1 3 .4 1 4 .6 1 6 .4 1 7 .3 1 8 .2 1 7 .6 1 9 .6 2 0 .6 O t h e r p u r c h a s e s , 1 9 7 2 d o l l a r s ....................................................................................................................................... 5 5 .4 5 6 .7 6 3 .8 6 8 .5 7 1 .3 7 0 .1 78 4 8 1 .5 T r a n s f e r s , 1 9 7 2 d o l l a r s ................................................................................................................................................................ 2 0 .9 2 4 .1 2 9 .2 2 9 .2 2 9 .2 3 2 .9 3 2 .9 3 2 .9 0 .8 3 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .7 4 .7 4 .7 - 3 .6 - 2 6 .0 5 - 1 0 2 .7 - 9 9 .5 - 1 3 1 .0 1 0 .2 1 7 .5 1 7 .5 1 7 .5 1 7 .5 1 7 .5 E d u c a t io n p u r c h a s e s , 1 9 7 2 d o lla r s H e a lt h a n d w e lfa r e p u r c h a s e s , 1 9 7 2 d o lla r s D i v i d e n d in c o m e , c u r re n t d o lla rs N e t in te r e s t , c u r r e n t d o l l a r s ................................................................................................................................................. - 7 1 .1 - 7 0 .5 -7 8 M o n e t a r y ( n u m b e r s in b il li o n s o f c u r r e n t - d o l l a r s ) : R e s e r v e r e q u ir e m e n t, d e m a n d d e p o s i t s , (in p e r c e n t ) ................................................................. 1 7 .5 1 7 .5 R e s e r v e r e q u ir e m e n t, tim e d e p o s i t s , (in p e r c e n t ) ........................................................................... 3 .4 1 .2 1 .2 1 .2 1 .2 1 .2 1 .2 1 .2 F r e e r e s e r v e s .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 0 .1 0 .1 0 5 0 .5 M o n e y m a r k e t m u t u a l fu n d s 3 .0 1 8 4 .2 2 7 1 .0 2 7 1 .0 0 .5 2 7 1 .0 0 .5 4 1 7 .4 0 .5 4 1 7 .4 0 .5 4 1 7 .4 1 .8 1 3 7 .8 2 1 6 .5 2 1 6 .5 ............................................................................................................................................ 2 1 6 .5 2 9 3 .5 2 9 3 .5 2 9 3 .5 O v e r n i g h t r e p u r c h a s e a g r e e m e n t s ............................................................................................................................. 8 .5 5 0 .5 8 2 .7 8 2 .7 8 2 .7 1 1 0 .2 1 1 0 .2 1 1 0 .2 T e r m r e p u r c h a s e a g r e e m e n t s , c o m m e r c i a l b a n k s ........................................................................... 2 9 .9 4 7 .4 4 7 .4 4 7 .4 6 5 .1 6 5 .1 6 5 .1 t h r i f t s .............................................................................................................. 1 0 .2 1 .4 2 6 .3 4 7 .2 4 7 .2 4 7 .2 6 6 .5 6 6 .5 6 6 .5 O v e r n i g h t E u r o d o ll a r s 0 .0 1 0 .0 24 2 2 4 .2 2 4 .2 3 7 .3 3 7 .3 3 7 .3 T r a v e le r ’ s c h e c k s .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 .6 5 .1 6 .5 6 .5 6 .5 8 .2 8 .2 8 2 9 5 .4 7 8 9 5 .4 7 8 1 0 3 .7 0 4 O t h e r c h e c k a b le d e p o s i ts ................................................................................................................................................. T e r m re p u rc h a s e a g re e m e n ts , D e m o g r a p h ic ( n u m b e r s in m illio n s ) : 76 846 8 5 .9 4 0 9 1 .9 2 6 9 1 .9 2 6 9 1 .9 2 6 ................................................................................................................... 8 3 .4 7 4 93 430 9 9 .8 8 5 9 9 .8 8 5 9 9 .8 8 5 9 5 .4 7 8 1 0 3 .7 0 4 1 0 3 .7 0 4 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 5 6 .8 2 7 6 1 .9 9 6 6 8 .1 8 3 6 8 .1 8 3 6 8 .1 8 3 7 2 .2 5 0 7 2 .2 5 0 7 2 .2 5 0 N u m b e r o f h o u s e h o l d s ................................................................................................................................................................ 73 846 8 4 .9 8 5 9 5 .5 9 8 9 5 .5 9 8 9 5 .5 9 8 10 2 446 1 0 2 .4 4 6 1 0 2 .4 4 6 N u m b e r o f u n re la te d i n d i v i d u a l s .................................................................................................................................. 2 0 .5 4 3 31 905 3 4 .2 8 7 3 4 .2 8 7 3 4 .2 8 7 3 6 .7 4 7 3 6 .7 4 7 ........................................................................................................................ 5 7 .1 7 4 6 3 .8 3 5 6 5 .8 4 1 6 7 .1 4 6 6 8 .1 4 4 6 7 .2 5 8 6 9 .2 8 2 7 1 .4 5 2 F e m a le la b o r f o r c e , a g e 1 6 a n d o v e r ................................................................................................................... 38 983 4 9 .7 0 9 5 4 .2 5 9 5 5 .5 0 7 5 6 .1 5 6 5 7 .8 4 2 5 9 .8 8 6 6 1 .4 4 8 2 .3 2 2 M a le p o p u l a t i o n , a g e 1 6 a n d o v e r F e m a le p o p u l a t i o n , a g e 1 6 a n d o v e r N u m b e r o f fa m ilie s M a le la b o r f o r c e , a g e 1 6 a n d o v e r 3 6 .7 4 7 A r m e d fo r c e s 2 .1 4 1 2 .2 3 9 2 .3 2 2 2 .3 2 2 2 .3 2 2 2 .3 2 2 2 .3 2 2 S e lf - e m p lo y e d 5 78 3 7 .7 8 5 7 .9 7 4 8 .1 9 1 8 363 8 .1 7 5 8 .6 3 2 464 .3 3 5 .3 1 0 .3 5 4 .3 7 4 .2 0 2 .2 3 5 336 899 - .8 5 9 - 1 .0 8 1 - 1 .1 4 6 - .2 4 1 - .6 3 6 - .6 8 5 6 ,6 1 7 .9 U n p a i d f a m i ly w o r k e r s C o n c e p t u a l d i f f e r e n c e ..................................................................................................................................................................... - 208 - 8 .9 2 1 F o r e ig n : 3 ,6 9 3 .0 4 ,5 2 9 .5 5 ,2 8 3 . 7 5 ,5 6 7 . 9 5 ,7 6 4 .4 5 ,9 4 8 9 6 ,3 6 1 . 3 W o r l d g r o s s d o m e s t ic p r o d u c t d e fla to r ( 1 9 7 2 = 1 0 0 ) ................................................................. 1 5 3 .3 2 9 7 .1 4 3 3 .5 4 1 2 .0 3 9 1 .4 6 1 0 .9 5 2 8 .3 480 8 E x c h a n g e ra te ( 1 9 7 2 98 31 7 1 .4 8 8 2 .9 0 8 9 .2 1 9 3 .6 2 9 2 .4 2 1 0 5 .7 4 1 2 0 .0 6 W o r l d g r o s s d o m e s t ic p r o d u c t , b illio n s o f 1 9 7 2 d o lla rs = 10 0 ) 5 somewhat different patterns in the next 10 years. For ex ample, consumer electronics products are projected to be come increasingly popular and important. In 1977, p c e accounted for 63.1 percent of real g n p . During 1982-84, the p c e share was higher than usual because of the aftermath of the deep recessions and because of the relatively low prices of imported consumer goods, caused in part by the high value of the dollar. By 1995, the p c e share is estimated to decline because of the impact of a projected slowdown in population growth, as well as the larger share of g n p accounted for by investment expenditures. The decline in p c e ’ s g n p share represents a return to the consumption pat terns experienced during the 1970’s, when p c e averaged about 63 to 64 percent of g n p . Over the coming decade, consumption expenditures are projected to shift more toward durable goods and services and away from nondurable goods. The slow growth in con sumer nondurables is in line with the slowdown in popu lation growth. More important, because income elasticities for durables and services exceed those for nondurables, it is estimated that consumers will demand relatively more durable goods and services as real family incomes rise. As a result, the share of nondurable goods is projected to ac count for 34.2 percent of total p c e in 1995, down from 37.6 percent in 1984. Since 1967, expenditures by consumers on services have exceeded expenditures on nondurables. Spending on ser vices is projected to continue to increase relatively from a 46.8-percent share of total p c e in 1984 to 50.2 percent in 1995. Spending on financial, legal, and business services is expected to expand rapidly. Health care and other related services are estimated to become the fastest-growing part of services consumption. By 1995, the share of durables is projected to remain close to 15.6 percent of total p c e . A s noted earlier, durable goods have a high income elasticity, which implies that higher real incomes have a favorable effect on purchases of high-priced durable goods. This is projected to foster du rable consumption growth despite a projected slowdown in household growth. The steady demand for durables is also stimulated by a growing demand for household electronic goods. On net balance, however, the rate of growth of consumer durables in the projection period is slower than for past trends. Gross private domestic investment consists of (1) pur chases of producers’ durable equipment; (2) investment in nonresidential structures; (3) purchases of residential struc tures; and (4) changes in inventories of business. Histori cally, gross domestic investment is one of the most volatile elements of final output. Accounting for 17.9 percent of g n p in 1972 and 18.8 percent in 1973, gross investment accounted for only 14.1 percent in 1982 and 15.5 percent in 1983, primarily because of the effects of high interest rates, high inflation, and the recessions of the 1970’s and early 1980’s on housing construction. Since the end of the latest recession in late 1982, in vestment spending has climbed to its historically high levels. The strength of the recovery in spending on purchases of producers’ durable equipment has been particularly dra matic, an increase of 33 percent on average from the fourth quarter of 1982—the recession trough—to the second quarter of 1984, which is almost twice as large as the increase in any comparable recovery period. A major contributor to this increase was the category of office machinery which in cludes computers. Investment in nonresidential structures, especially for commercial buildings, recovered so sharply during the last 2 years that it was well ahead of the average for the previous postwar recoveries. Investment in residen tial structures, that is, housing construction, also rebounded strongly. Private housing starts for 1984 were about 1.8 million units versus 1.06 million for 1982. The extent to which changes in tax laws in 1981 and 1982 contributed to the current recovery of business investment is unclear.6 Nevertheless, the future mix of monetary and fiscal policies assumed by b l s in this set of projections, which determines the level of real interest rates, is estimated to be more favorable toward investment than in the recent past. Although Federal deficits in nominal terms are pro jected to remain high through 1995, as a percent of g n p they are projected, using the assumptions stated earlier, to decline from 5.0 percent of g n p in 1984 to 3.0 percent in 1995. As a result, interest rates (measured by the 3-month Treasury bill rate) are projected to fall from their 1984 level of 9.52 percent to 7.55 percent in 1995. This decline con tributes to the projected increase in the share of g n p ac counted for by investment expenditures, which attain a 19.0percent level in 1995. Business investment is estimated to be a great contributor to real growth during the projection period. Real exports and imports are projected to continue to account for a larger share of g n p . Exports are estimated to rise to 13.4 percent of g n p in 1995 and imports to a 13.8percent share. For merchandise imports, the major growth area is expected in capital goods. For merchandise exports, the demand for “high-tech” goods is estimated to increase rapidly during the projection period. In 1984, the Nation experienced a large trade deficit as net exports fell to an unprecedented —$64.2 billion (in nominal terms), from - $8.3 billion in 1983. The worsening of the trade deficit was largely in merchandise trade. Mer chandise imports were up 26 percent from 1983 to 1984, while merchandise exports increased only 10 percent. The weakness in merchandise exports and the strength in mer chandise imports continue to reflect the effects of cumulative dollar appreciation. The current account trade balance, un der the assumptions used in the b l s projections, is expected to remain in deficit into the 1990’s, but the net exports share of g n p is projected to decline over the study period. Because of differential price results, the real trade balance under the same assumptions is assumed to show improve 6 a slowdown in long-term growth of automobile demand is anticipated, caused by the decline in the number of new auto registrants because of a long-term demographic swing. In addition, the continued rise in automobile costs may lead ultimately to lower replacement demand. Purchases of cars, vans, and light trucks as a whole, are estimated to rise at the moderate rate of 2.0 percent per year during 1984-95. This represents an increase in new car sales to 10.9 million units in 1995. Purchases of imported cars, because of the assumption that imports will continue to improve their com petitive position in this country, are projected to account for a larger proportion of the industry’s output—28.2 per cent in 1995, compared with 13.5 percent in 1977 and 23.4 percent in 1984. Demand for auto parts is expected to echo the slowing growth in demand for automobiles. Purchases of tires and inner tubes, accounting for about one-half of total sales of auto parts, are projected to show a very slow growth during the projection period, partly because of the increased use of smaller-size tires and the decreased replacement for longerlasting tires. ments after 1985. Real net exports would still be negative by 1995, but with a relatively narrow gap, as a result of a stable rate of inflation and the assumption of a slow but steady increase in the exchange rate. Government purchases of goods and services7 are as sumed to rise at a slightly faster rate than g n p throughout the 1980’s, then begin to slow after 1990, relative to overall g n p growth. This pattern reflects that defense spending, especially in the areas of computers and communication equipment, is anticipated to grow very strongly—by about 5.3 percent per year between 1984 and 1990—but then is assumed to slow sharply (to 1.2-percent growth per year) in the 1990-95 period. The real nondefense portion of Fed eral purchases is estimated to show only minimal growth in the next 10 years; an annual growth rate of 1.1 percent is projected for 1984-95. State and local spending on goods and services is pro jected to increase more slowly than g n p in the 1990's, averaging 2.3 percent per year for both the 1984-90 and the 1990-95 periods. It should be noted that the projected growth rate of State and local purchases is somewhat faster than the recent trend. The slower growth during 1977-84 was the result of strict, recession-induced expenditure con trols by State and local government. Between 1980 and 1983, total real State and local government purchases dropped about $2 billion, although purchases began a turnaround in 1984. Personal computers. Among the consumer-related indus tries, personal computers and computer peripheral equip ment, such as disk drives and printers, are projected to be the most rapidly growing demand category. The substantial demand for personal computers that began in the late 1970’s continued in 1984. The projections concerning the personal computer market in the longer term are still optimistic de spite short-run problems, as rapid technological change is expected to sustain improvements in computer system ca pabilities, thus attracting new buyers, as well as repeat cus tomers. In addition, improved software will likely propel demand for personal computers. Furthermore, the educa tional market is considered important. Many children are exposed to the use of computers at school, and for many it will become another standard appliance. Purchases of per sonal computers are projected to grow at a robust rate of 20.9 percent per year in 1984-95. This means that real spending on home computers should reach $8.1 billion in 1995, eight times that of 1984. Industry final demand Each demand sector mentioned above accounts for pur chases from a different set of industries. Households con sume a different variety of industrial products than businesses. Clearly, the products of food-related industries, such as meat products or soft drinks, are heavily consumed by house holds, while the products of machinery-related industries, such as engines and office machines, are heavily consumed by business as investment goods. Industry demand is af fected by shifts both in the relative importance among the various final demand sectors and in each sector’s distribution of purchases from each of the producing industries in the economy.8 Telephone equipment. The consumer market for telephone sets over the next 10 years is expected to be positive. Be cause of the a t &t divestiture and changes in regulation, more people are replacing leased telephones with their own. Moreover, telephone sets have become much more available to consumers; the new products, such as cordless telephones and telephone clock-radios, have also been widely intro duced. Purchases of telephone equipment are expected to increase at a rapid rate of 20 percent annually between 1984 and 1995, following the strong growth of 11.5 percent an nually between 1977 and 1984. Consumption expenditures Motor vehicles. After the dismal sales experienced by the automobile industry from 1980 to 1982, new car sales boomed to 10.4 million units in 1984 from a cyclical low of 8.0 million units in 1982. The increase in motor vehicle sales was mostly accounted for by domestic cars; sales of im ported cars were constrained, at least somewhat, by “vol untary” import quotas during 1982-84. The recovery of the new car market reflects the improvement in economic conditions—higher personal income, stable gasoline prices, a reduced inflation rate, and improved consumer confidence. Demand for motor vehicles probably will remain strong in the near future because of a backlog of demand. However, Consumer electronics. A great deal of technological in novation has brought many unique electronic products to 7 the market in the past 5 years. Demand for consumer elec tronic products, with no recent evidence of cyclicality, has been increasing dramatically in recent years. These products Include television sets, video disc players, automobile ra dios, video cassette recorders, and audio tape recorders. The new popular interest in video entertainment, which is aroused by an increasing variety of cable t v programs and pre-recorded video cassettes, is stimulating the demand for modular color television sets. Also, televisions will likely be used more and more as monitor-receivers to serve as a display screen for home computers and video games. As a result, demand for radio and television receiving sets as a group is estimated to increase strongly; from the already high level of 1984, an annual rate of 3.9 percent is projected for the 1984-95 period, reaching $22 billion in 1995. increase include relatively inelastic demand for health care services; a generally more rapid rate of increase in prices; a rising proportion of the elderly in the total population; costly surgical and iri-hospital treatment; technological de velopment which allows the use of sophisticated and ex pensive medical equipment; new and costly medical procedures; and government and private insurance systems. It is estimated that medical care spending will continue its upward trend in the coming decade. By 1995, such spend ing is projected to account for 8 percent of total p c e , but spending patterns will change considerably over the next 10 years. Mirroring the projected growth in the aging popu lation, nursing home services will increase. Moreover, the rapid expansion of health maintenance organizations, spurred by the provision of more affordable and comprehensive med ical services, should attract members of other health plans. Also, the continuing Federal restriction on payments to hos pitals will be a strong motivation to curb hospital care in favor of other kinds of health care services, which are usu ally less expensive. Expenditures for physicians’ services are projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the 1984-95 period, accounting for 3.9 percent of total p c e in 1995 versus 3.4 percent in 1984. Expenditures for hospitals are estimated to show a much slower growth of 1.7 percent per year between 1984 and 1995, down from 3.6 percent during 1977-84; while expenditures for other medical ser vices are projected to grow faster, at an annual rate of 5.7 percent between 1984 and 1995, up from 3.4 percent for 1977-84. Consumer nondurables. Expenditures for nondurables tend to be more closely tied to population growth than other categories of consumer expenditures. The projection of slow growth in population and household formation in the next decade is reflected in a moderate growth rate for all non durables except for drugs and pharmaceutical products. For example, spending on dairy products is estimated to grow 2.4 percent per year between 1984 and 1995, while spending on apparel products is projected to grow even more slowly, 1.7 percent. Spending on gasoline is expected to decline below its 1977 level, as the stock of automobiles grows less rapidly and average fuel efficiency continues at a moderate rate of increase. Conversely, drugs are the only nondurable consumer product projected to show strong long-term growth: 7.4 percent per year for the 1984-95 period, as compared with 2.6 percent for 1977-84. The estimate for high growth is linked to the continuation of new product development, increases in prices of prescription drugs (such as cardio vascular drugs), further expansion in the use of generic drugs, and the rising number of elderly in the population who proportionately consume more drugs. The following tabulation highlights those PCE-related in dustrial categories with the best projected performance: The 10 largest Banking and fin a ncial services. Personal banking and fi nancial services have been expanding rapidly in recent years, as more persons enjoy banking and credit union services, such as the new and convenient automatic teller machine and the spread of investment counseling. Both banking and financial services are projected to expand even more in the future, with credit cards, debit cards, and in-home banking programs. However, because banking services are facing more intense competition from financial services, the latter are providing a wider array of financial products, such as retirement accounts, competitive deposit accounts, mutual funds, and insurance. Spending for personal banking ser vices is projected to grow at a rate of 3.6 percent per year between 1984 and 1995, while spending for financial ser vices is projected to increase at a rate of 5.6 percent. 1977 dollars The 10 fastest growing PCE-related industrial Annual percent categories during 1984-95: growth rate Computers and computer-related equipment 20.9 Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................... 20.0 Drugs ............................................................................... 7.4 Electronic components and accessories .................. 6.9 Professional se r v ic e s.................................................... 5.8 Medical services ........................................ Communications services .......................................... 5.7 Credit agencies and financial b rok ers.............. 5.6 Real estate ....................................................................... 4.7 Amusement and recreation services ........................ 4.5 M edical care services. Since the mid- 1960’s, medical care expenditures have grown rapidly. Reasons for the rapid PCE-related industrial ca teg o ries in 1995: (in billions) Owner-occupied real estate ................................. $261.4 Real estate ............................................................... 100.8 97.6 Eating and drinking places ........................................ Doctors’ and dentists’ se r v ic e s.................................. 79.2 Motor vehicles ........................................... Hospitals ......................................................................... 58.1 Communications services ........................................... 56.6 A pparel............................................................................. 49.1 Banking services ........................................................... 48.1 Electric utilities ............................................................. 47.3 8 64.0 5.7 and medical instruments. These products are all character ized by rapid changes, partly because of changes in tech nology. In contrast, equipment products for which investment demand is projected to grow slowly include farm and garden machinery, mining and oilfield machinery, and railroad equipment. The following tabulation shows the highlights for those industrial categories related to purchases of producers’ du rable equipment ( pde) with the best expected performance: Business investment As mentioned earlier, business investment (nonresidential investment) is expected, under the assumptions used by bls in this set of projections, to remain strong throughout the projection period, boosting the business investment share of gnp. From 1984 to 1995. investment in equipment, the largest portion of investment, is estimated to grow by 3.8 percent per year, outpacing growth in gnp. Equipment in vestment’s gnp share is projected to rise to 10.3 percent by 1995, from 7.6 percent in 1977 and 9.4 percent in 1984. During the 1970's, investment in equipment was directed more toward energy-efficient and environmentally safe equipment. Over the next decade, investment in equipment is likely to be highly concentrated in technologically ad vanced equipment, as businesses invest to increase produc tivity, cut costs, and respond to the availability arid capabilities of new technologies. This equipment includes not only com puters and advanced communication equipment, but man ufacturing machinery incorporating programmable controls and robotics. The five largest PDE-related industrial categories in 1995: Computers and computer-related equipment .......................................................... Motor vehicles ...................................................... $62.4 41.8 Radio and communication equipment ............ 21.6 Communication services .................................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus.................. 19.0 18.0 The five fastest growing PDE-related A nnual p ercen t industrial categories during 1984-95: g ro w th ra te Computers and computer-related equipment ....................................................... 8.5 Computers. Investment spending on computers and com puter-related equipment is projected to continue to boom through the 1990’s. All major industries are projected to have made heavy commitments to computers during the next 10 years. In addition, intense competition and continued technological change are estimated to combine to sustain increases in capabilities and decreases in prices. Thus, busi ness investment in computers is expected to show a sharp growth, averaging 8.5 percent per year between 1984 and 1995. This will bring spending on computers to 18.6 percent of total equipment spending, ranking it the largest item of total purchases of producers’ durable equipment. Communication services .................................... Medical and dental instruments ........................ Telephone and telegraph apparatus .................. Radio and communication equipment ............ 8.1 5.7 5.2 4.5 Business investment in nonresidential structures is a small but very cyclical part of gnp. During the 1983-84 recovery, nonresidential structures did not turn up until late 1983. After that, investment expenditures recovered sharply in the mature stages of the business cycle, increasing by 16 percent between 1983 and 1984. The largest percent increase was for commercial buildings. Because more of future economic growth is projected to come from high-technology industries, which invest heavily in research and development but are not generally structure intensive, investment in nonresidential structures is esti mated to grow principally to modernize the existing capital stock: factories, offices, transmission lines, and other struc tures. As a consequence, an average growth rate of only 2.0 percent per year is projected for 1984-95. Metalworking machinery. The increase in demand for metalworking machinery in recent years reflects the interest in flexible manufacturing and automation, which incorporate robots and highly automated metal cutting tools, as well as lasers and fluid cutting techniques. Business spending for metalworking machinery is expected to continue its rapid advance through the next decade, reaching about $14 billion by 1995, almost double that in 1977. Communication equipment and services. Continued growth in the demand for industrial electronic equipment (ranging from radio and television broadcast equipment to mobile radio equipment and cable television equipment), as well as the introduction of new high-technology products and services (such as fiber-optic cable, cellular mobile radio telephone, and video-conferencing) promise to widen the applicability of communication technologies. Investment demand for communication equipment and services is pro jected, therefore, to increase two- to threefold over 1984— 95. Other fast-growing investment demand is projected for optical equipment, scientific and controlling instruments, 1 9 7 7 d o lla r s (in b illio n s) 9 Housing From the end of the 1960’s until the beginning of this decade, demand for new housing (residential investment) increased at a steady rate, although usually interrupted by business cycles. Similarly, housing construction was se verely depressed in the 1980-82 recessions. New housing starts plummeted from a high of 2.0 million units in 1977 to 1.1 million units in 1982, while residential investment expenditures (in real terms) declined from $99 billion in 1977 to $60.4 billion in 1982. Even though the downswing reversed sharply during the 1983-84 recovery period, new housing starts have averaged only about 1.7 million units for the last 2 years. During each economic recovery in the 1970’s, housing starts bounced back to more than 2 million units and stayed there for a few years. Record-high mortgage rates are among the key reasons that housing has not re bounded as fast as in the past, but the demographic factors also play an important role. In the 1970’s, baby boomers formed households in record numbers and this was reflected in housing demand. Now this age group is growing out of the typical age for forming new households. Long-term housing demand is mainly determined by de mographic factors and geographic movements, although higher housing prices and higher real interest rates could retard demand. Primarily because of projected slowdowns in population growth and changes in the age structure of the population, the number of households is projected to show a slower growth of 1.7 percent per year between 1984 and 1995, below the rate of 1.9 percent during 1973-84. The decline in household formation is projected to reduce the number of housing starts to a level of 1.6 million units in 1995 in spite of the assumption of steadily improving real interest rates. Between 1973 and 1983, the stock of multiple units grew more rapidly than the stock of single units, averaging 2.4 percent growth, compared with 2.0 percent for single units. This pattern is projected to continue over the next 10 years, but a narrowing of the differential is also likely. The im proved picture in the future for single-family units relative to multiple units stems from the shift of population structure. The 25- to 44-year-old group, used as proxy for the home buying market, is projected to maintain a consistently high proportion of the adult population in 1995; individuals in this group have traditionally favored single-family homes. The stock of mobile homes, which was at the level of 3.4 million units in 1984, is projected to stabilize at about 3.2 million units over the study period. equipment, are expected to increase sharply because of strong demand from their end users. A rapid growth of 10 percent per year is projected between 1984 and 1995. It is important to note that the expansion of exports for electronic com ponents, however, will be significantly tempered by the parallel expansion of imports. Over the past 20 years, the U.S. trade balance always has benefited from strong exports of agricultural products. While agricultural surpluses are still expected to continue over the projection period, the share of the agricultural in dustry with respect to total exports is estimated to be smaller, 6.9 percent in 1995 versus 8.3 percent in 1984. Other tra ditional export industries, such as aircraft and motor vehi- / cles, are projected to continue to exhibit their sizable share of total exports. Among services exports, the most rapidly growing in dustry is communication services, averaging 10.5-percent growth per year in the 1984-95 period; a strong demand for U.S.-built communication equipment, as well as tele phone and telegraph apparatus, implies a strong demand for communication services. The following tabulation high lights those industries with the best expected performance: Foreign trade It is assumed that as the U.S. dollar falls, import price increases will gradually reflect the drop in the dollar’s value. In turn, the growth of real imports is expected to show a slower pace. Average growth of 4.0 percent per year for total imports is projected in the 1984-95 period, as com pared with 6.5 percent for 1977-84 and 15.9 percent during 1982-84. In 1980, nearly one-fourth of merchandise imports was accounted for by crude oil and petroleum products. How ever, in 1984, petroleum imports were less than 15 percent of total merchandise imports. The lagged impacts of the 1979-80 oil price increases are still inducing conservation and substitution away from oil and reducing the growth of oil demand: petroleum dropped to 3.4 million barrels per day in 1983 from a high level of 6.5 million barrels per day in 1979. Despite the recent fall in oil demand, in the long term, demand for imports is projected to increase because of falling domestic production. Domestic oil production, is projected to continue to decline over the projection period, from 8.6 million barrels per day in 1984 to 7.9 million The five largest merchandise export 1 9 7 7 d o lla r s industrial categories in 1995: (in b illio n s) Computers ............................................................ $31.5 Electronic components ....................................... 19.5 Motor vehicles .................................................... 16.5 Food and feed grains ......................................... 14.6 Aircraft................................................................. 13.8 The five fastest growing export A nnual p ercen t industrial categories during 1984-95: g ro w th ra te Computers .................................................................. 10.5 Communication services ......................................... 10.5 10.1 Radio and television receiving s e t s ........................ Electronic components ............................................. 10.1 9.1 Telephone and telegraph apparatus......................... The trade picture is expected to show improvements in the coming decade under the assumptions used in this set of projections. With gradual depreciation of the U.S. dollar assumed, along with the stronger world economic growth, the gnp share of real net exports is projected to recover from -2 .2 percent in 1984 to —0.4 percent in 1995. Real exports are expected to increase much faster than total gnp in the 1990’s. An annual growth rate of 5.6 percent for exports is projected in the 1984-95 period, while a rate of 2.9 percent for gnp is projected. By 1995, merchandise exports are estimated to be even more highly concentrated in “ high tech’’ goods, such as computers, electronic com ponents, communication equipment, and drugs, because technology has risen to become a worldwide concern. The U.S. technological lead in computers is universally ac knowledged. Thus, by 1995, the computer industry is pro jected to become the largest export industry, accounting for 7.4 percent of total exports. Also, exports of electronic components, the basic building blocks of all electronic 10 barrels by 1990 and 7.6 million barrels by 1995. In contrast, petroleum imports are expected to increase steadily from 3.9 million barrels per day in 1984 to 5.7 million in 1990 and 6.9 million in 1995. With no real oil price increases assumed during the projection period, demand for petroleum imports is projected to increase at a rate of 2.6 percent per year during 1984-95. Instead of imported oil, Americans are buying more for eign-made steel, textiles, apparel, automobiles, and busi ness equipment. During the 1980-82 recessions, the market penetration of imported cars was record breaking. As a result of a recovery of the U.S. car market and a limit on Japanese imports, the import share declined from 28.8 percent in 1982 to 23.6 percent in 1984. But the restraint program ended on April 1, 1985. Despite a new set of self-imposed restraints, Japanese automobiles are expected to expand their share of U.S. markets in the near future. As noted earlier, the long-term automobile import share is expected to resume its increase because of the assumption that imports will continue to improve their competitive position in this coun try. Auto imports are projected to grow at a rate of 4.0 percent per year between 1984 and 1995. Capital goods are increasingly being bought from foreign producers. Imports of electronic components, which have made major inroads in recent years, are projected to exceed exports by 1995, capturing 23.8 percent of the industry’s output. Imports of office machines have already dominated the U.S. market since the 1970’s. Their projected values reach $3.1 billion in 1995, representing 41.9 percent of the industry’s output. Imports of machine tools accounted for about 40 percent of domestic machine tool sales in 1984. This industry is expected to become even more international by 1995. Also, lured by lower prices, foreign steel took a record 26 percent of the domestic market in 1984, or an increase from a 20.5-percent of market share in 1983 and 18.5 per cent in 1979. Even with import curbs for the next 5 years, foreign competition is anticipated to remain strong through 1995. Imports of the products of some labor-intensive indus tries, such as apparel products and textiles, are also projected to continue to increase, as developing countries seek larger shares of the U.S. market. The traditional imported goods, such as motorcycles, jewelry, and watches, also continue to dominate the U.S. market for these products in the next decade in the b l s projections.9 The following tabulation highlights those industries with the best expected perfor mance: The five largest merchandise import 1 9 7 7 d o lla r s industrial categories in 1995: (in b illio n s ) Motor vehicles ................................................... $50.6 Computers ........................................................... 28.6 Crude petroleum and natural g a s ..................... 27.9 Electronic components ...................................... 26.6 Apparel products ................................................ 23.5 The five highest import penetration Im p o rts o u tp u ts industrial categories in 1995: ra tio Watches and clock s............................................ 74.6 Leather products ................................................ 60.2 Radio and television receiving s e ts ................. 58.3 Motorcycles and bicycles ................................ 56.7 Jewelry and silverware...................................... 55.2 Government Total real government purchases of goods and services are projected to grow more slowly than total gnp over the 1984-95 period, as reflected by the fact that government purchases, as a percent of gnp, fall from 18.8 percent in 1984 to 18.0 percent in 1995. However, when the various parts of government are viewed separately, a more complex picture emerges. Federal Government defense spending is projected to in crease to 5.7 percent of gnp by 1995, from a level of 5.4 percent held in 1984. This is a result of an average annual growth rate of 5.3 percent projected from 1984 to 1990, and 1.2 percent from 1990 to 1995. For the whole period, from 1984 to 1995, GNP is projected to grow 2.9 percent while defense grows 3.4 percent. However, the growth of Federal nondefense purchases is less than gnp over the whole period, resulting in a drop from 2.0 percent of gnp in 1984 to 1.7 percent in 1995. This pattern is duplicated by State and local government purchases of goods and services, which are projected to drop from 11.4 percent to 10.7 percent of gnp . All four of the major components of State and local government purchases—education, health and welfare, safety, and other purchases including highway construction—are assumed to have growth rates slower than gnp over the projection period. Spending on education, the largest State and local government component, is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent during 1984-95, reflecting that the population of 5- to 17-year-olds is pro jected to grow only at a rate of 0.8 percent per year. Spend ing per student is estimated to increase at a rate of 1.0 percent per year. Government spending is further divided between com pensation of employees and spending on purchases of goods and other services. In the defense sector, there is little ex pectation that the level of armed forces and civilian defense employment will increase dramatically over that of 1984, so the increases in spending will be for material. Compen sation, as a percent of total real defense purchases, is pro jected to continue to drop from its 46-percent level in 1977 and 35 percent in 1984 to 26 percent in 1995. After com pensation, the major recipient of defense spending is the manufacturing sector of the economy which is projected to hold its historical share of noncompensation purchases at 67 percent. Within the manufacturing sector, relatively more spending on computers and communication equipment causes the share of these industries to increase at the expense of such purchases as food and clothing which are devoted to 11 a stable armed force level. In the nonmanufacturing areas, communications, along with specialized professional ser vices such as computer and data processing, will grow much faster than total defense purchases and thus take a larger share. Slower projected growth for the remaining functions of government, than projected growth for total gnp, reflects the demographic landscape of the projection period. A ma turing population will require relatively less real education expenditures but more health expenditures than were ne cessitated by the baby boom, while a completed highway program will call only for expenditures on upkeep. pected. In addition, investment is estimated to be more robust because of a decline in the user cost of capital relative to labor. Investment equipment is projected to grow at an average rate of 4.9 percent in the 1984-95 period, 1.1 percentage point over the moderate-growth case. The higher incomes growth in this alternative is partic ularly beneficial to spending on consumer durables because consumer durables are more responsive to income changes than some other categories. Auto sales increase rapidly in the high-growth version, exceeding 12 million units by 1995, compared with 10.9 million units in the moderate-growth projection. Demand for U.S. exports increases as a result of the stronger world growth and stable rate of inflation. Demand for imports is also expected to rise as a result of higher economic growth. Real exports in the high-growth version are $48 billion higher in 1995 than in the moderate-growth case, while real imports are only $11 billion above the moderate-growth projection, resulting in a trade surplus of about $25 billion in 1995, compared with a trade deficit of $12 billion in the moderate-growth scenario. Real Federal purchases of goods and services at the total level show no change in the high-growth projection, while State and local purchases of goods and services show a slight increase, higher by $12 billion in 1995 than in the moderate alternative. Finally, higher income growth rates lead to higher Federal Government revenue collections, which in turn, lead to a projection of a balanced Federal budget in 1995. Alternative growth paths Two alternative projections of growth have been prepared with variations in those responses to economic policy which have the greatest impact on the industrial employment and occupational projections. It should be noted that the alter natives are not policy alternatives. In fact, both fiscal and monetary policies, with the exception of Federal spending programs which respond to economic stimuli, such as un employment benefits, remain the same in all three scenarios. The purpose of the alternatives is to provide a reasonable range of outcomes around the probable responses of the economy to a given set of policy assumptions. The assumptions underlying the high-growth alternative are that the civilian labor force is estimated to grow more rapidly, reaching almost 133 million by 1995, approxi mately 4 million more than in the bls middle-growth labor force projection; and the unemployment rate is estimated to drop more rapidly over the projection horizon, reaching 5.9 percent in 1990 and 5.0 percent in 1995. Productivity growth is even higher than in the moderate-growth version. In con trast, the assumptions underlying the low-growth alternative are that the labor force will expand less rapidly and the unemployment rate will not improve very much over the projection period. In addition, a sluggish rate of productivity growth is also assumed. Each of the alternatives is sum marized below and estimates from these scenarios are pre sented along with the moderate-growth projection in tables 1 and 2. Low growth. In this alternative, as noted above, a rela tively more consumer-oriented growth path is assumed with less relative investment growth and much lower productivity growth. Real gnp is $234 billion lower in 1995 than in the mod erate-growth case, and durable items are particularly af fected by the slower growth. Lower levels of disposable income dampen purchases of automobiles, furniture, and other durable goods. Thus, consumption of durable goods is 6.5 percent below the moderate-growth projection by 1995, while total consumption spending is 6.1 percent below the moderate-growth version. With lower economic growth, business investment in this scenario shows a relatively poorer performance. By 1995, total investment is 7.6 percent below the moderate-growth version, especially investment in producers' durable equip ment which ends up about 10 percent below moderate growth. Dampened capital goods spending leads to lower produc tivity over the entire period. The demand for imports is assumed to be reduced by lower economic activity. However, the lower economic growth is projected to hamper export growth even more. Real exports are lower by $47 billion in 1995, compared with the moderate-growth levels, while real imports are off by only $12 billion. As a result, real net exports are projected to reach a $47 billion deficit by 1995 in the low-growth H igh growth. This alternative differs from the moderategrowth version primarily in the 1984-90 period. Real gnp is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent during 1984-90, a full percentage point higher than in the moderate-growth projection. Between 1990 and 1995, gnp is projected to grow at a rate of 3.5 percent annually. The gnp in 1995 is $310 billion higher than in the moderategrowth case. Within gnp, the component of demand most sensitive to the alternative assumptions is business investment, espe cially investment in equipment. With more gnp and lower interest rates in this version, higher real investment is ex 12 Table 2. Gross national product, 1973,1977,1984, and projected to 1990 and 1995 [B illio n s o f 1 9 7 7 d o llars] 19 10 19 9 5 198 4 19 77 19 73 Low M o d e r a te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h $ 2 ,3 6 7 . 3 $ 2 ,6 9 1 . 4 $ 2 ,8 2 1 . 4 $ 2 ,9 8 6 . 7 $ 3 ,0 0 6 .4 $ 3 ,2 4 0 .5 $ 3 ,5 5 0 .9 1 ,5 2 2 .2 1 ,7 4 4 .3 1 ,8 0 8 . 4 1 ,9 3 0 .4 1 ,9 2 9 . 2 2 ,0 5 3 . 5 2 ,2 5 7 . 9 Ite m S 1 ,8 2 5 .3 $ 1 ,9 7 6 . 6 P e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n ............................................................................................................................. 1 ,1 1 1 .9 1 ,2 4 6 . 5 D u r a b l e s ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 6 2 .1 1 8 4 .4 2 3 7 .2 2 7 5 .5 2 8 4 .4 3 0 7 .9 2 9 9 .9 3 2 0 .6 3 6 3 .7 N o n d u r a b l e s ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 5 5 .1 4 9 0 .5 5 7 2 .2 6 1 7 .9 < 6 4 1 .7 6 8 0 .6 6 5 9 .7 7 0 2 .5 7 6 3 .0 S e rv ic e s ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 9 4 .8 5 7 1 .6 7 1 2 .8 8 5 1 .0 8 8 2 .4 9 4 2 .0 9 6 9 .6 1 ,0 3 0 .4 1 ,1 3 1 .2 G r o s s p r iv a te d o m e s t ic i n v e s t m e n t ..................................................................................... 3 4 3 .5 3 3 6 .6 4 5 2 .4 4 9 7 .8 5 2 4 .5 5 5 7 .9 5 6 9 .1 6 1 5 .6 6 7 2 .5 E q u i p m e n t ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 3 6 .3 1 4 9 .9 2 2 1 .7 2 5 6 .7 2 7 0 .3 2 9 0 .5 3 0 2 .5 3 3 5 .0 3 7 5 .0 G r o s s n a tio n a l p r o d u c t ........................................................................................................................ ......................................................................................................... 7 7 .3 6 6 .0 9 2 .9 9 7 .9 1 0 2 .2 1 0 6 .7 1 1 1 .4 1 1 6 .0 1 2 5 .9 ................................................................................................................... 1 0 1 .8 9 9 .0 9 7 .3 1 1 1 .5 1 1 2 .3 1 1 2 .6 1 2 0 .4 1 2 2 .5 1 2 0 .7 .................................................................................................................................. 2 8 .1 2 1 .7 4 0 .5 3 1 .7 3 9 .7 4 8 .2 3 4 .8 4 2 .0 5 0 .9 - 5 2 .3 - 6 8 .0 - 4 4 .7 - 4 5 .9 2 3 8 .2 3 1 4 .2 3 4 0 .2 3 5 5 .3 3 8 8 .6 4 3 5 .6 4 8 3 .4 - 4 0 1 .2 - 4 3 5 .7 - 4 4 7 .3 - 4 5 8 .2 N o n r e s id e n t ia l s t r u c t u r e s R e s id e n tia l s t r u c t u r e s In v e n to ry c h a n g e " N e t e x p o r t s ................................................................................................................................................................ - 2 .6 - 2 .1 E x p o r t s .................................................................................................................................................................... 1 6 1 .4 1 8 5 .3 - 4 7 .1 2 5 .2 - 1 1 .8 ............................................................................................................................................................... - 1 6 4 .0 - 1 8 7 .4 - 2 9 0 .4 - 3 8 2 .2 - 3 8 4 .9 ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 7 2 .5 3 9 5 .6 4 4 5 .0 5 1 7 .3 5 3 3 .2 5 4 4 .2 5 5 5 .2 5 8 3 .2 5 9 5 .3 F e d e r a l .................................................................................................................................................................... 1 3 6 .8 1 4 3 .4 1 7 4 .8 2 2 4 .3 2 2 4 .3 2 2 4 .3 2 3 7 .4 ' 2 3 7 .4 2 3 7 .4 1 7 3 .1 1 7 3 .1 1 7 3 .1 1 8 3 .8 1 8 3 .8 1 8 3 .8 Im p o rts G o ve rn m e n t D e f e n s e ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 7 .0 9 2 .8 1 2 7 .2 N o n d e fe n s e ............................................................................................................................................ 3 9 .9 5 0 .5 4 7 .6 5 1 .2 5 1 .2 5 1 .2 5 3 .6 5 3 .6 5 3 .6 S ta te a n d l o c a l ............................................................................................................................................ 2 3 5 .7 2 5 2 .2 2 7 0 .2 2 9 3 .0 3 0 8 .9 3 1 9 .9 3 1 7 .8 3 4 5 .9 3 5 7 .9 P e rc e n t d istrib u tio n ........................................................................................................................ 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 P e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n ............................................................................................................................. 6 0 .9 6 3 .1 6 4 .3 6 4 .8 6 4 .1 6 4 .6 6 4 .2 6 3 .4 6 3 .6 D u r a b l e s ................................................................................................................................................................ 8 .9 9 .3 1 0 .0 1 0 .2 1 0 .1 1 0 .3 1 0 .0 9 .9 1 0 .2 ................................................................................................................................................. 2 4 .9 2 4 .8 2 4 .2 2 3 .0 2 2 .7 2 2 .8 2 1 .9 2 1 .7 2 1 .5 ............................................................................................................................................................... 2 7 .1 2 8 .9 3 0 .1 3 1 .6 3 1 .3 3 1 .5 3 2 .3 3 1 .8 3 1 .9 G r o s s p r iv a te d o m e s t ic i n v e s t m e n t ..................................................................................... 1 8 .8 1 7 .0 1 9 .1 1 8 .5 1 8 .6 1 8 .7 1 8 .9 1 9 .0 1 8 .9 E q u i p m e n t ........................................................................................................................................................... 7 .5 7 .6 9 .4 9 .5 9 .6 9 .7 1 0 .1 1 0 .3 1 0 .6 G r o s s n a tio n a l p r o d u c t N o n d u r a b le s S e iv ic e s ......................................................................................................... 4 .2 3 .3 3 .9 3 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .6 3 .5 ................................................................................................................... 5 .6 5 .0 4 .1 4 .1 4 .0 3 .8 4 .0 3 .8 3 .4 ............................................................................................................................. 1 .5 1 .1 1 .7 1 .2 1 .4 1 .6 1 .2 1 .3 1 .4 N o n r e s id e n t ia l s t r u c t u r e s R e s id e n tia l s t r u c t u r e s I n v e s tm e n t c h a n g e N e t e x p o r t s ................................................................................................................................................................ Im p o rts - 0 .1 8.8 - 2 .2 - 0 .1 - 2 .5 - 1 .6 - 1 .5 - 1 .6 0 .7 - 0 .4 9 .4 1 0 .1 1 1 .7 1 2 .1 1 1 .9 1 2 .9 1 3 .4 1 3 .6 ................................................................................................................................................................ - 9 .0 - 9 .5 - 1 2 .3 - 1 4 .2 - 1 3 .6 - 1 3 .4 - 1 4 .5 - 1 3 .8 - 1 2 .9 ........................................................................................................................................................... 2 0 .4 2 0 .0 1 8 .8 1 9 .2 1 8 .9 1 8 .2 E x p o r t s ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 8 .5 1 8 .0 1 6 .8 F e d e r a l ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7 .5 7 .3 7 .4 8 .3 8 .0 7 .5 7 .9 7 .3 6 .7 D e f e n s e ........................................................................................................................................................... 5 .3 4 .7 5 .4 6 .4 6 .1 5 .8 6 .1 5 .7 5 .2 N o n d e fe n s e ............................................................................................................................................ 2 .2 2 .6 2 .0 1 .9 1 .8 1 .7 1 .8 1 .7 1 .5 S ta te a n d l o c a l ............................................................................................................................................ 1 2 .9 1 2 .8 1 1 .4 1 0 .9 1 0 .9 1 0 .7 1 0 .6 1 0 .7 1 0 .1 G o ve rn m e n t A v e r a g e a n n e a l ra te o f c h an g e 1 9 9 0 -9 5 19 8 4 -9 0 1 9 7 3 -7 7 19 0 4 -9 5 1 9 7 7 -8 4 Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Low M o d e r a te H ig h Low M o d e r a te H ig h ........................................................................................................................ 2 .0 2 .6 2 .2 3 .0 lo 2 .2 2 .8 3 .5 2 .2 2 .9 3 .8 P e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n ............................................................................................................................. 2 .9 2 .9 2 .3 2 .9 4 .0 2 .0 2 .6 3 .2 2 .2 2 .8 3 .6 D u r a b l e s ................................................................................................................................................................ 3 .3 3 .7 2 .5 3 .1 4 .4 1 .7 2 .4 3 .4 2 .2 2 .8 4 .0 N o n d u r a b le s ................................................................................................................................................. 1 .9 2 .2 1 .3 1 .9 2 .9 1 .3 1 .8 1 .3 1 .9 2 .7 ................................................................................................................................................................ 3 .7 3 .2 3 .0 3 .6 4 .8 2 .6 3 .1 2 .3 3 .7 2 .8 3 .4 4 .3 G r o s s p r iv a te d o m e s t ic i n v e s t m e n t ..................................................................................... - 0 .5 4 .3 1 .6 G r o s s n a tio n a l p r o d u c t S e rv ic e s 2 .7 2 .1 2 .8 3 .7 2 .5 4 .6 3 .3 3 .3 4 .4 3 .8 5 .8 2 .5 3 .4 3 .6 2 .4 5 .2 2 .9 3 .8 4 .9 ......................................................................................................... - 3 .9 5 .0 0 .9 1 .6 2 .3 2 .6 2 .6 3 .4 1 .7 2 .0 2 .8 ................................................................................................................... - 0 .7 - 0 .2 2 .3 2 .4 2 .5 1 .6 1 .8 1 .4 2 .0 2 .1 2 .0 .................................................................................................................................. - 6 .2 9 .3 - 4 .0 - 0 .3 3 .0 1 .9 1 .1 1 .1 0 .3 2 .1 E q u i p m e n t ........................................................................................................................................................... N o n r e s id e n t ia l s t r u c t u r e s R e s id e n tia l s t r u c t u r e s In v e n to ry c h a n g e - 1 .4 E x p o r ts .......................................................................................................................................................................... 3 .5 3 .7 4 .7 6 .1 6 .9 4 .3 5 .1 6 .4 4 .6 5 .6 6 .7 Im p o rts .......................................................................................................................................................................... 3 .4 6 .5 4 .6 4 .8 5 .5 2 .7 3 .1 2 .7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 .5 1 .7 2 .5 3 .1 3 .4 1 .4 1 .8 1 .8 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 .2 2 .9 4 .3 4 .3 4 .3 1 .1 1 .1 1 .1 G o ve rn m e n t 2.0 2 .5 2 .7 2 .8 2 .8 3 .4 - 1 .1 4 .6 5 .3 5 J , 1 .2 1 .2 1 .2 2 .8 3 .4 ............................................................................................................................................ 6 .1 - 0 .9 1 .2 1 .2 1 .2 0 .9 0 .9 0 .9 1 .1 1 .1 1 .1 S ta te a n d l o c a l ............................................................................................................................................ 1 .7 1 .0 1 .4 2 .3 2 .9 1 .6 2 .3 2 .3 1 .5 2 .3 2 .6 Fed eral D e f e n s e ........................................................................................................................................................... N o n d e fe n s e Note : 3 .4 f r o m th e bls m a c r o m o d e l 's e s t im a te s in 1 9 7 2 d o ll a r s . T h e s e d a t a r e fle c t th e b e n c h m a r k H is to ric a l d a t a in 1 9 7 7 d o lla r s w e r e r e e s tim a te d f r o m th e N a tio n a l In c o m e a n d P r o d u c t A c c o u n t s ' e s t im a te s in 1 9 7 2 d o ll a r s ; p r o je c te d d a t a in 1 9 7 7 d o lla r s w e r e r e e s tim a te d 5 .3 r e v is io n s re le a s e d in M a y 1 9 8 4 b y th e B u r e a u o f E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s . 13 alternative, which is significantly below the $12 billion def icit of the moderate-growth case. Real Federal Government spending on goods and services is assumed to follow the same path as in the moderategrowth projection. With lower receipts forthcoming from a sluggish economy, the Federal deficit, in nominal terms in this b l s alternative, is projected to reach nearly $500 billion by 1995, versus $267.9 billion in the moderate-growth case. State and local spending is very sensitive to changes in the availability of receipts and hence to the poorer prospect for the economy. Total spending by State and local gov ernment in the low-growth alternative is thus below the moderate-growth projection by $28 billion in 1995. reference year in the current projections, while 1984 was a projected year in the previous projections: Comparisons with previous projections Real g n p .................................... Civilian labor force.......... Civilian employment......... Real output per person, all industries.................. Unemployment rate, 1995 G rowth rate, 1984-95 Previous projections H igh Moderate Low Real g n p .................................... Civilian labor force.......... Civilian employment......... Real output per person, all industries.................. Unemployment rate, 1995 3.5 1.6 1.6 2.9 1.2 1.2 2.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 5.2 1.3 6.0 1.3 6.8 C urrent projections H igh Moderate Low 3.8 1.5 1.7 2.9 1.2 1.3 2.2 0.9 0.9 In November 1983, b l s published its initial projections of the 1995 economy10 in the same format, including a moderate-growth scenario and a high- and a low-growth 2.2 1.7 1.4 alternative. Starting from a cyclical low point in 1982, pro 5.0 6.0 7.0 jected g n p growth to 1995 ranged from 2.8 percent for the low-growth alternative to 3.3 percent for the high. In the Because real g n p and its components are measured in revised projections, g n p growth from 1984 to 1995 ranges constant 1977 prices for this set of projections, while con from 2.2 percent to 3.8 percent per year. stant 1972 prices were used for the past projections, final By 1995, under the previous projections, civilian em demand components can only be compared in terms of per ployment was projected to range between 122 million and centage distribution or growth rates. Expenditures for equip 130 million jobs. By comparison, the current projected em ment investment and defense purchases of goods and services ployment levels are lower for all three scenarios. The down i are now projected to grow much faster than the initial es ward revision in projected employment results primarily timates; both the export and import shares of g n p are higher from a lower growth in the labor force, in turn reflecting in the current projections. However, personal consumption the slowdown in the rate of growth in female labor force expenditures are expected to claim a relatively smaller share of g n p than previously estimated. participation that began in 1978 and continued into 1984. Lastly, the previous projections of final demand by in Another major difference between this set of projections and the last projections is in productivity. As stated earlier, dustry used a Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output a strong rate of productivity growth is assumed and em table for 1972 and a BLS-estimated table for 1977. For the phasized in the current moderate- and high-growth versions. current projections, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’1977 The projected 1995 unemployment rate is unchanged in input-output table and a b l s ’ preliminary table for 1984 are the current moderate-growth projection from that previously used. The utilization of these tables in the current projections assumed, while the differences in both the high- and low- resulted in many historical data revisions and provided more growth alternatives are very modest. The following tabu current information on technological trends, and, presum lation shows the projected annual growth rates, 1984-95, ably, contributed to many of the differences between the for selected economic variables for the two projections. It earlier and current projections, particularly at the industry □ is important to note that the year of 1984 is the last historical level. ■FOOTNOTES 'For previous articles see Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and John Tschetter, “ The 1995 labor force: a second look,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 3-10; Arthur J. Andreassen, Norman C. Saunders, and Betty W. Su, “ Economic outlook for the 1990’s: three scenarios for economic growth,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 11-23; Valerie A. Personick, “The job outlook through 1995: industry output and employ ment projections,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 24-36; George T. Silvestri, John M. Lukasiewicz, and Marcus E. Einstein, “Oc cupational employment projections through 1995,” Monthly Labor Re view, November 1983, pp. 37-49; and Richard W. Riche, Daniel E. Hecker, and John U. Burgan, “ High technology today and tomorrow: a small slice of the employment pie,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 50-58; also Employment Projections for 1995, Bulletin 2197 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1984). 2See Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “The 1995 labor force: BLS’ latest projections,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1985, pp. 17-25. 3In this tabulation, real output per person, as measured by real gnp/ civilian employment, is derived from the Wharton macroeconomic model— a model which is selected by bls to develop the Bureau’s aggregate eco nomic projection. (See footnote 4.) It is important to note that productivity measures presented in this article are not comparable to the published bls data series, which are developed by the bls Office of Productivity and Technology. For the definitions of labor productivity, multifactor produc 14 tivity, and other related measures, and their historical data series, see the Current Labor Statistics section of the Monthly Labor Review. 4The bls aggregate projections have been developed in the context of the long-term model of the U.S. economy provided by Wharton Econo metric Forecasting Associates, Inc. The Wharton model was selected from the commercial models offered to the Bureau on the basis of a competitive procurement and should not be deemed either more or less suitable, on a theoretical basis, than the other models considered in the procurement action. 5The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ latest 1977 input-output tables were used in their present benchmark revision. However, during this projection, the revised estimates of the National Income and Product Accounts were only available for 1977. The rates of change between the revised final demand sectors underlying the National Income and Product Accounts and the previously published demand sectors for 1977 were weighted by each of the major category levels, and these weights were carried over in the projection period. 6See Barry P. Bosworth, “Taxes and the investment recovery,” Brook ings Papers on Economic Activity (Washington, DC, The Brookings Insti tution, 1985), pp. 1-38. pensation of military and civilian employees. State and local government purchases of goods and services are also a major part of total State and local government expenditures, which also include transfer payments to persons and net interest. State and local government purchases are separated by type of function. Major categories used are education, health and wel fare, safety, and all other. 8Demand by industry is only part of the picture, because an industry’s output is dependent not only on the final demand categories, such as personal consumption, but also upon intermediate use by other industries: for example, final demand by consumers for cars leads to intermediate demand by auto producers for steel, glass, plastic, computer and accounting services, and all of the other goods and services necessary for the production of motor vehicles. Total output by industry, the sum of final demand and intermediate demand, is derived by use of the input-output model. For a fuller description of the model, see pages 58-59. It should be noted that the input-output estimates of final demand for 1984 are estimated by bls based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ 1977 input-output tables and the demand estimates of the National Income and Product Accounts for 1984. These estimates are preliminary. Also, developments related to out put, employment, and labor productivity are discussed by Valerie Personick elsewhere in this bulletin. 7 Federal Government purchases of goods and services are a major part 9Imports in the bls projections are valued at domestic port value. Imports of total Federal Government expenditures, which also include transfer are assigned to the relevant or most nearly comparable domestic industry payments to persons and to foreigners, grants-in-aid, and net interest. On based on the nature of the product, except for those noncomparable imports, the demand side of the National Income and Product Accounts, the Federal such as stamps and coins. sector is divided into defense and nondefense, and then each of these 10See several articles listed in footnote 1. categories is further split into purchases of goods and services and com 15 The 1995 labor force: BLS’ latest projections A third look shows that the 1995 labor force will have about 129 million persons, 2 million fewer than projected earlier; the proportion of blacks will increase, but women are still expected to have the fastest growth H o w a r d N F u l l e r t o n , Jr . The labor force is projected to reach 129 million persons in 1995, up from 114 million in 1984, according to new Bureau of Labor Statistics projections. The new middle growth pro jections show the labor force growing at a slower rate over the 1984-95 period than over the 1975-84 period, with the slowest growth occurring during the early 1990’s. Blacks are expected to account for a larger share (20 percent) of the future labor force growth, the consequence of higher birth rates during the past several decades. Women also are expected to account for a larger share of growth (60 percent), the consequence of continued increased par ticipation rates. Because of the aging of the baby-boom generation and the projected continued declines in partici pation among older persons, nearly three-fourths of the 1995 labor force is projected to be in the prime working ages (25 to 54 years), compared with two-thirds of the 1984 labor force. The prime working age component of the labor force is projected to increase by 21 million, while the overall labor force is projected to increase by only 15 million in asmuch as the numbers of those in both the older and youn ger labor force are projected to drop. Participation among women ages 25 to 44 is expected to exceed 80 percent in 1995, up from 70 percent in 1984 and 50 percent in 1970. The continuing increases reflect changes in marital status, educational attainment, fertility, and rising career aspirations. Participation among persons ages 55 and over is expected to be only 25 percent in 1995, down from 30 percent in 1984 and 39 percent in 1970. These persistent declines reflect increasing percentages of workers who are eligible for pensions and who select early retirement. This article presents b l s ’ third look at the 1995 labor force.1 Each look has resulted in lower 1995 labor force participation. The revisions reflect the more modest in creases in female participation over the last several years, compared with the substantial increases during the 1970’s. The change in historical trends occurred mostly among 20to 34-year-old women and reflects the movement of the baby-boom generation through these ages. The projections are presented by age, sex, and race for 1990 and 1995. They are based on the Bureau of Census middle population projection as well as b l s assumptions concerning future trends in labor force participation.2 The projection for each component of the middle growth scenario is based on past trends of labor force activity ex tended forward to 1995. These extrapolated trends, modified when necessary, are then applied to Census Bureau popu lation levels for different groups.3 (The methods for pro jecting the labor force and other components of b l s ’ economic growth model are described in part II.) Also discussed briefly are two scenarios (low and high growth) which il lustrate the sensitivity of labor force trends to demographic assumptions such as male and female and Howard N Fullerton, Jr. is a demographic statistician in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statis tics. 16 black and white labor force participation rates converg ing over time. These alternative scenarios provide some insights into the range of uncertainty concerning the future size of the U.S. labor force. Finally, this article compares current projections with projections of the 1995 labor force published by b l s in 1980 and 1983. Labor force trends are projected to continue to vary by age, sex, and race. (See table 1.) During the last 15 years, the prime age female labor force has consistently been the fastest growing group. While the growth for this group is expected to slow, it would still be one of the fastest growing elements in this latest projection. The 1970-80 trends re flected large increases in both population and participation; the 1980-84 trends reflect modest increases. In absolute nufiibers, the 1975-84 and projected 1984-95 increases in the prime age female labor force are nearly equal. The youth labor force (ages 16 to 24) also grew rapidly during the 1970’s; during the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, it is projected to decline in absolute numbers. This change reflects the movement of the baby-boom generation into and through this age group. The projected population declines will more than offset projected modest increases in partic ipation for this age group. The older labor force (those 55 years and over) expanded during the 1970’s, began to contract in the 1980’s, and is expected to continue declining. The decline reflects a slow ing of the growth of the older population that began about 1980. In the 1970’s, population growth more than offset participation decreases for this group; in the 1980’s and 1990’s, this is not expected to hold. The prime age male labor force has grown steadily; it is Middle growth scenario The labor force is projected to continue the slowdown in growth that began in the late 1970’s. The largest growth, 3.3 percent or 3.2 million additional persons, occurred over the 1977-78 period. Over the 1980-84 period, the labor force grew by only 1.7 million persons per year. Over the 1984-85 period, the average increase is expected to be only 1.4 million persons per year— 1.5 million during the 1984— 90 period and 1.3 million during 1990-95.4 The change in labor force growth between the late 1970’s and early 1980’s reflected sharply lower population and participation growth rates during the early 1980’s. The labor force trends over the last and next decade are dominated by the movement of the baby-boom generation from the ages of labor force entry into the prime working ages. The par ticipation trends are affected by the aging of the baby-boom generation and by an increasing propensity of older workers to retire early. Table 1. Civilian labor force, by sex, age, and race, actual 1975-84 and middle growth projections to 1995 A c tu a l Pro je c te d G ro u p T o ta l, 1 6 y e a rs an d o v e r (th o u s a n d s ) ............................................................................................................................................ M e n .............................. 19 75 19 8 0 198 4 19 9 0 19 9 5 9 3 ,7 7 5 1 0 6 ,9 4 0 1 1 3 ,5 4 4 1 2 2 ,6 5 3 1 2 9 ,1 6 8 5 6 ,2 9 9 6 1 ,4 5 3 6 3 ,8 3 5 6 7 ,1 4 6 6 9 ,2 8 2 1 6 to 2 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2 ,3 7 1 1 3 ,6 0 6 1 2 ,7 2 7 1 1 ,1 6 3 1 0 ,5 4 0 2 5 t o 5 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 4 ,9 9 1 3 8 ,7 1 2 4 2 ,3 0 2 4 8 ,0 7 9 5 1 ,2 0 0 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 ,9 3 8 9 ,1 3 5 8 ,8 0 5 7 ,9 0 4 7 ,5 4 2 W o m e n ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 7 ,4 7 5 4 5 ,4 8 7 4 9 ,7 0 4 5 5 ,5 0 7 5 9 ,8 8 6 55 and over 1 0 ,2 5 0 1 1 ,6 9 6 1 1 ,2 6 0 1 0 ,0 8 9 9 ,6 2 3 2 1 ,8 6 0 2 7 ,8 8 8 3 2 ,3 6 0 3 9 ,6 3 2 4 4 ,5 1 9 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 ,3 6 5 5 ,9 0 4 6 ,0 8 4 5 ,7 8 6 5 ,7 4 4 W h it e ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 2 ,8 3 1 9 3 ,6 0 0 9 8 ,4 9 2 1 0 5 ,4 6 7 1 1 0 ,0 8 6 B la c k .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 ,2 6 3 1 0 ,8 6 5 1 2 ,0 3 3 1 3 ,6 0 2 1 4 ,7 9 6 ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 ,0 1 0 0 .0 M e n ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 6 t o 2 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 0 .0 1 3 .2 5 7 .5 1 2 .7 5 6 .2 1 1 .2 5 4 .7 9 .1 5 3 .6 2 5 to 5 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 7 .3 3 6 .2 3 7 .3 3 9 .2 6 .4 1 6 t o 2 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 5 t o 5 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 55 and over T o t a l , 1 6 y e a r s a n d o v e r (p e r c e n t ) 8 .2 3 9 .6 9 .5 8 .5 7 .8 ......................................................................................................... 4 0 .0 4 2 .5 4 3 .8 1 0 .9 1 0 .9 9 .9 4 5 .3 8 .2 4 6 .4 1 6 to 2 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 6 .1 2 8 .5 3 2 .3 3 4 .5 55 and ove r ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. W o m e n .................................................................................................... 2 5 to 5 4 2 3 .3 5 .8 7.4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 .7 5 .5 5 .4 4 .7 4 .4 W h it e ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 8 .3 8 7 .5 8 6 .7 8 6 .0 8 5 .2 B la c k .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 .9 1 0 .2 1 0 .6 1 1 .1 1 1 .5 55 and o ve r A v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te o t ch an g e 19 7 5 -8 0 19 8 0 -8 4 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 .5 2 .7 1 .5 1 .3 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 .9 1 .8 1 .0 .8 1 9 7 0 -7 5 T o ta l, 1 6 y e a rs a n d o v e r M en 19 8 4 -9 0 1 6 to 2 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 .9 1 .9 - 1 .7 2 5 t o 5 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 .7 2 .0 - 2 .2 - 1 .8 .8 .4 W o m e n ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 .5 4 .0 2 .2 1 .9 1 6 to 2 4 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 .8 2 .7 .9 - 1 .8 2 5 t o 5 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 55 and o ver . . ....................................................... - - 3 .7 5 .0 3 .8 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. .6 1 .9 .8 2 .5 3 .2 W h ite .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 .4 B la c k .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... — Note: Dash indicates data not available. 17 1 .0 .6 - 1 .1 2 .2 2 .2 .9 55 an d o ve r 1 9 9 0 -9 5 1 .3 - .8 .9 2 .4 3 .4 - .9 1 .5 - .1 1 .3 1 .1 9 2 .6 2 .1 1 .7 Table 2. Civilian noninstitutional population, by sex, age, and race, actual 1975-84 and projected to 1995 [N u m b e r s in th o u s a n d s ] A c tu a l P r o je c te d G ro u p 19 75 19 8 0 198 4 19 9 0 19 9 5 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 5 3 ,1 5 3 1 6 7 ,7 4 5 1 7 6 ,3 8 3 1 8 6 ,6 5 5 1 9 3 ,8 1 7 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 2 ,2 9 1 7 9 ,3 9 8 8 3 ,6 0 5 8 8 ,5 6 8 9 2 ,0 6 5 1 6 to 2 4 1 7 ,0 8 4 1 8 ,2 8 2 1 7 ,4 9 4 1 5 ,1 6 2 1 4 ,2 5 4 2 5 to 5 4 3 7 ,0 7 1 4 1 ,0 9 5 4 5 ,0 3 9 5 1 ,4 0 7 5 5 ,0 5 4 T o ta l, 1 6 y e a rs an d o v e r M en 1 8 ,1 3 8 2 0 ,0 2 1 2 1 ,0 7 3 2 1 ,9 9 9 2 2 ,7 5 7 W o m e n ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 0 ,8 6 0 8 8 ,3 4 8 1 0 1 ,7 5 2 1 7 ,9 2 9 1 8 ,8 9 5 9 2 ,7 7 8 1 7 ,9 2 8 9 8 ,0 8 7 1 6 to 2 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 5 ,6 5 3 1 4 ,7 4 6 2 5 to 5 4 . : ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 9 ,7 0 0 4 3 ,6 0 3 4 7 ,4 3 6 5 3 ,5 4 4 5 6 ,9 9 4 55 and over ................................................................................................ : ..................................................................................................... 2 3 ,2 3 1 2 5 ,8 5 0 2 7 ,4 1 3 2 8 ,8 9 0 3 0 ,0 1 2 W h it e ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 3 4 ,7 9 0 1 4 6 ,1 2 2 1 5 2 ,3 4 7 1 0 5 ,4 6 7 1 6 4 ,8 6 0 B la c k ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 5 ,7 5 1 1 7 ,8 2 4 1 9 ,3 4 8 2 1 ,2 0 4 2 2 ,6 5 8 1 9 8 4 -9 0 1 9 9 0 -9 5 55 and over A v e r a g e a n n u a l rate o f ch an g e 1 9 7 0 -7 5 19 7 5 -8 0 ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 .2 1 .8 1 .3 0 .9 0 .8 .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 .4 1 .9 1 .3 1 .3 0 .8 T o ta l, 1 6 y e a rs an d o v e r M en ................................... 19 8 0 -8 4 1 6 t o 2 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 .1 1 .4 2 5 t o 5 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 .0 2 .1 2 .3 2 .2 55 and over .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 .7 2 .0 1 .3 0 .7 0 .7 W o m e n ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 .1 1 .8 1 .2 1 .0 0 .7 - 1 .1 - 2 .4 - 1 .2 1 .4 1 6 t o 2 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 .5 1 .1 - 1 .3 - 2 .2 2 5 t o 5 4 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 .8 1 .9 2 .1 2 .0 1 .3 55 and over 2 .5 2 .2 1 .5 0 .9 0 .8 1 .6 1 .0 0 .8 0 .6 2 .5 2 .1 1 .5 1 .3 .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. W h it e ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ B la c k ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Note: D a s h in d ic a te s d a ta n o t a v a ila b le . So u r c e : 2 .0 — - 1 .2 D a t a a re b a s e d o n C e n s u s B u r e a u " m i d d l e " p r o je c t io n s o f th e p o p u l a ti o n . tality, and net migration. Of the three, births have the great est and most direct impact on the labor force, life expectancy the least. Past trends in births have a direct impact on the 1995 labor force; future births are important only as they affect women’s and men’s labor force participation. Births have fluctuated in long cycles over the past century, reflecting different combinations of fertility rates and num bers of women in their childbearing years. There was a sharp increase in births with the end of World War II, but the highest level occurred in the 1950’s. From 1954 through 1964, annual births exceeded 4 million. Between the late 1960’s and the mid-1970’s, births dropped, numbering only 3.2 million in 1975. Since then, births have been rising and are expected to peak in 1988 at 3.9 million. After that, the number of births is projected to drop, as the baby-boom generation moves past its peak childbearing years, even as the total fertility rate is assumed to continue increasing slight ly. Following is the total fertility rate (births per woman), 1955-95:5 expected to continue doing so. Like the prime age female labor force, the increases for men over the next decade are projected to be the same size as the last decade’s. Prime working age women are expected to account for more than one-third of the labor force in 1995. Because of the differing trends in participation by age, the prime age labor force share of the total labor force has been steadily increasing since 1975 and is expected to reach nearly 75 percent in 1995. The black labor force has grown faster than the white labor force for the last two decades; this is expected to continue. Even so, blacks would still account for a modest share (about 12 percent) of the 1995 labor force. The black share of the additions to the labor force over the 1984-95 period paints a more dramatic picture; they are projected to account for almost 20 percent of the additions to the labor force. The projected growth in the labor force reflects two im portant underlying factors—population and labor force par ticipation. An examination of these factors reveals their contribution to future labor force growth. ________ A c tu a l ________ 1955 1965 1975 1982 W h i t e . . . . .................... 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.8 B l a c k ............ ............... 4.1 3.6 2.2 2.3 Population projections Past and future trends in the labor force are determined by the composition of population and by the proportion of the population working or seeking work (participation or activity rates) within each of the age, sex, and race groups. The labor force changes as the composition of the population changes because each group differs as to levels and trends of participation. The population projections reflect trends in births, mor P r o je c te d 1995 1.9 2.0 Because of the swings in births during the 1940-80 period, the 25- to 54-year-old population group will be the fastest growing component during the next decade; the 16- to 24year-old population will decline. (See table 2.) Those bom in 1957, the peak year for births, will be 38 years in 1995; those bom in 1973, the trough year for births, will be 22 years. 18 Black birth rates are higher than those of whites. Thus, the black population is growing faster and has a younger median age than the white population. The younger popu lation of blacks would have proportionately more labor force entrants. Life expectancy changes affect mainly the number and sex composition of the older population. This, however, has only a modest effect on the labor force projections, given that older persons have relatively low levels of labor force participation. Following is the life expectancy at birth (in years) for men and women, 1955-95:5 Actual Projected 195 5 19 6 5 1975 1982 1995 Men .............................. 66.7 Women ........................ 72.8 66.8 73.7 68.8 76.6 70.6 78.1 72.3 79.8 Migration will have an increasingly important impact on labor force growth during the next decade. The Census Bureau assumed that the yearly level of net migration during the next decade would be about the same as it has been recently. Following is the net migration (in thousands), 1955— 95:5 _________Actual_________ Projected 19 5 5 1965 1975 19 8 2 1995 Total m igration.......... 373 449 480 450 387 However, net migration will account for about 25 percent of the additions to the total population, compared with about 20 percent during the 1970’s and 13 percent during the 1960’s. According to Vernon M. Briggs, Jr., “ In the 1970’s and early 1980’s, the United States legally admitted twice as many immigrants in absolute numbers as did all of the remaining nations of the world combined.” 6 Further, since World War II, more immigrants are women and most are in the prime working ages.7 Labor force participation The second element in labor force projections is b l s ’ projections o f labor force participation rates. Trends in par ticipation are projected for 82 age, sex, and race or ethnic groups. These projections involve two steps. First, past trends in participation are extrapolated to 1995. Second, these extrapolated trends are modified when cross-sectional and cohort analysis show an inconsistency with the timeseries analysis. The second step has a major impact on most projected trends. Patterns o f participation differ by age and sex. (See chart 1.) Male rates are higher than w om en’s at all ages. Partic ipation increases rapidly during the teens and early twenties. Participation for women peaks in their late twenties; for men, in their early thirties. While the gap between male and female participation has been diminishing, it is projected to continue at least through 1995. The past declines in male participation are expected to continue through 1995; past 19 These women, and their spouses, will have reached a point in their working lives when earnings no longer increase rapidly.9 Thus, to maintain their living standard, they will have to increase their time in the labor force.10 Some econ omists argue that because of the size of the baby-boom generation, its lifetime earnings will be depressed. If true, this would further encourage these women to contribute to family income through increased labor force activity.11 Data for the labor force participation rates of white women look very different, depending on whether one analyzes cohorts (generations) or cross-sectional patterns (the rate in a given calendar year for all labor force groups by age). For the entire post-World War II period, successive gen erations of white women have had greater labor force par ticipation at the age of labor force entry. Furthermore, J. Gregory Robinson and Claudia Goldin report that rates for cohorts rise along with age until the participants reach their fifties.12 A chart of the participation rate of several cohorts therefore would show an upward curve which levels off in the fifties and then declines; each successive cohort would have a higher curve (except for the 1940-44 and 1945-49 birth cohorts). Charts of the cross-sectional pattern, how ever, do not show this constant rise. Instead, they show a relative decline, or “ valley,” because participation rates appear to rise sharply through ages 25 to 29, then drop for ages 30 to 39, then rise again. The “ valley” in the crosssectional chart appears because the participation rate of women age 35 in 1975 was lower than the rate of women age 25 in that year. Note, however, that while the rate for women age 35 in 1975 is lower than the rate for 25-year-olds in 1975, it is not lower than the 1974 rate for the 25 year-old women who were bom in 1949. (See chart 1.) It might also be noted that although this “ valley” may be of interest, it has been disappearing in the cross-sectional data and this projection has it disappearing completely. Again, this re flects the interaction of two changes, lower growth in par ticipation at the age of entry into the labor force and higher growth in participation in the prime working ages. Table 3. Civilian labor force participation, by sex, age, and race, actual 1975-84 and middle growth projection to 1995 A c tu a l P ro je c te d G ro u p 19 7S 19 8 0 .................................... 6 1 .2 6 3 .8 ........................................................................................... 7 7 .9 7 7 .4 7 3 .6 7 3 .9 T o t a l .1 6 y e a r s a n d o v e r M en 198 4 19 9 0 19 9 5 6 4 .4 6 5 .7 6 6 .6 7 6 .4 7 5 .8 7 5 .3 1 6 to 2 4 ....................................................................... 7 2 .4 7 4 .4 7 2 .8 2 5 to 5 4 ...................................................................... 9 4 .4 9 4 .2 9 3 .9 9 3 .5 93 0 ............................................................. 4 9 .3 4 5 .6 4 1 .8 3 5 .9 3 3 .1 ................................................................................. 4 6 .3 5 1 .5 5 3 .6 5 6 .6 5 8 .9 5 7 .2 6 1 .9 6 2 .8 6 4 .5 6 5 .3 7 8 .1 55 and o ve r W om en 1 6 to 2 4 ....................................................................... 2 5 to 5 4 ....................................................................... 5 5 .1 6 4 .0 6 8 .2 7 4 .0 ............................................................. 2 3 .1 2 2 .8 2 2 .2 2 0 .0 1 9 .1 W h i t e .......................................................................................... 6 1 .5 6 4 .1 6 4 .6 6 5 .9 6 6 .8 B l a c k ........................................................................................... 5 8 .8 6 1 .0 6 2 .2 6 4 .1 6 5 .3 55 and o ver A v e r a g e a n n u a l rate o f c h a n g e 1 9 7 0 -7 5 1 9 7 5 -8 0 1 9 8 0 -8 4 1 9 8 4 -9 0 19 9 0 -9 5 T o ta l, 1 6 y e a rs M en .................................................................. ........................................................................................... 1 6 to 2 4 ...................................................................... 2 5 to 5 4 ...................................................................... 55 and over W om en ............................................................ ................................................................................ 0 .3 - .5 .8 - .3 - 2 .4 1 .3 0 .8 - .1 - .1 - .1 - .1 - 2 .2 - 2 .5 - 1 .6 - 1 .5 2 .2 2 .2 1 .6 ...................................................................... 1 .9 3 .0 W h i t e ........................................................................................... B l a c k .......................................................................................... N ote : .4 — - .1 - .6 ....................................................................... - 1 .8 .0 0 .3 .0 1 6 to 2 4 . . .................................................. - .4 0 .4 .5 2 5 to 5 4 55 and o ver 0 .2 - .3 1 .0 - .4 1 .6 - .7 .2 .9 .1 .8 .4 .2 1 .4 1 .1 - 1 .7 - .9 .8 .2 .3 .3 .7 .5 .5 .4 O a s h in d ic a te s d a ta n o t a v a ila b le . increases in female participation are expected to continue, albeit at slower rates. (See table 3.) White women. Participation of white women ages 20 to 29 increased rapidly during the early 1970’s, but moderately during the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. (See table 4.) Mod erate increases are projected to continue through 1995, as career aspirations and other factors, such as the use of child care facilities, continue to influence participation decisions of women. The change from rapid to moderate participation reflects, in part, the passage of the baby-boom generation through their twenties. Those bom in the late 1940’s and early 1950’s (the initial phase of the baby-boom generation) experienced a “ marriage squeeze,” a shortage of men 2 to 3 years older than themselves. Along with other factors, this squeeze increased the average age of women at marriage.8 Because participation is much higher for single than for married women, the overall participation of women increased. (The squeeze had little effect on male rates because their partic ipation varies little by marital status.) The marriage squeeze during the 1960’s and early 1970’s paralleled (and was a likely factor in) the declining fertility rates and increasing educational attainment among 20- to 29-year-old women. Since the mid-1970’s, the marriage squeeze has lessened and should remain stable for at least the next decade. The population projections assume that fertility rates will in crease slightly over the next decade. Participation among white women ages 30 to 45 is ex pected to continue increasing rapidly during the next decade. Black versus white women. In the 1960’s and early 1970’s, the participation of prime working age black women ex ceeded that of white women by as much as 15 percentage points for a few age groups. By 1984, white rates equaled or exceeded those of blacks in most age groups. To make this projection, it was necessary to consider whether par ticipation of white women was likely to equal or exceed that of black women in the prime working age groups. Participation rates for black women have been projected to remain above those of whites at ages 30 to 64, but below those for whites at ages 25 to 29. A further assumption in the projections is that changes in family status would not result in labor force for black women being below those of white women. The labor force participation rates of a few age groups of women are projected to increase by more than 1 percent 20 less competition. However, a greater proportion of the youth population is projected to be minority. To the extent that minorities live where there are fewer jobs, their participation or at least their chances of employment could be lower than one would expect, even if openings for youths exist else where. The absolute decline in the numbers of younger workers during the next decade may imply a labor shortage for some employers. Some employers of younger workers, particu larly teenagers, are responding to this shortage either by hiring a different age mix of employees or by offering higher wages to continue attracting teenage employees. a year. The following tabulation shows the eight groups with the fastest participation growth projected for 1984-95: Age group Race Projected growth per year 1.4 25-34 White women... 35-44 White women... 1.3 1.1 45-54 White women... 1.0 35-44 Black women ... .9 45-54 Black women ... .9 25-34 Black women ... .8 20-24 Black women ... 18-19 .8 White women... As noted earlier, the activity rates of men are expected to continue their slow descent. The rates of black men have been (and are projected to continue) declining most rapidly. Those of white men are expected to drop at a moderate pace. Older persons. The participation rate of older workers is projected to drop substantially through 1995. Several factors lead to this projection. For those 65 and over, rates have dropped for the entire century. The drop for those 55 to 64 is a post-World War II phenomenon; there is no indication that this drop will end soon. A recent National Bureau of Economic Research study concludes that the largest ex pected gain from most pension plans is obtained by retiring as soon as a person is eligible.13As more people are covered by pension plans, labor force participation of older workers can be expected to drop.14They may start withdrawing funds Teenagers. Participation among most teenage groups de clined over the past decade, but are expected to increase over the next decade. Teenage participation has been more cyclically responsive than other age groups. Teens have also faced considerable competition for jobs in the recent past; now that their numbers are falling, there should be relatively Table 4. 1995 Civilian labor force and participation rates by sex, age, and race, actual 1 9 7 5 -8 4 and middle growth projection for P a rtic ip a tio n rate L a b o r fo rc e (th o u s a n d s ) G ro u p P ro je c te d A c tu a l T o ta l. 1 6 y e a r s a n d o v e r M en ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 6 to 1 9 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 0 to 2 4 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 5 to 3 4 A c tu a l P ro je c te d 19 75 19 8 4 19 9 5 19 75 19 8 4 19 9 5 6 1 .2 6 4 .4 6 6 .6 9 3 ,7 7 5 1 1 3 ,5 4 4 1 2 9 ,1 6 8 7 7 .9 7 6 .4 7 5 .3 5 6 ,2 9 9 6 3 ,8 3 5 6 9 ,2 8 2 5 9 .1 56 0 5 7 .9 4 ,8 0 5 4 ,1 3 4 3 ,7 5 0 8 4 .5 8 5 .0 8 7 .3 7 ,5 6 5 8 ,5 9 4 6 ,7 9 0 9 5 .3 9 4 .4 9 3 .7 1 4 ,1 9 2 1 8 ,4 8 8 1 8 ,2 4 7 35 to 4 4 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 5 .6 9 5 .4 9 4 .3 1 0 ,3 9 8 1 4 ,0 3 7 1 9 ,2 3 2 4 5 to 54 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 2 .1 9 1 .2 9 0 .4 1 0 ,4 0 1 9 ,7 7 6 1 3 ,7 2 1 6 ,1 1 9 7 5 .6 6 8 .5 6 2 .6 7 ,0 2 3 7 ,0 5 0 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 2 1 .6 1 6 .3 1 1 .0 1 ,9 1 4 1 ,7 5 5 1 ,4 2 3 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4 6 .3 5 3 .6 5 8 .9 3 7 ,4 7 5 4 9 ,7 0 4 5 9 ,8 8 6 5 1 .2 55 to 64 65 and o ve r W om en 1 6 to 1 9 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 9 .1 5 1 .8 2 0 to 2 4 .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 4 .1 7 0 .4 7 6 .3 6 ,1 8 5 7 ,4 5 1 6 ,3 1 6 5 4 .9 6 9 .8 8 1 .1 8 ,6 7 3 1 4 ,2 3 4 1 6 ,1 6 8 25 to 34 4 ,0 6 5 3 ,8 0 9 3 ,3 0 7 5 5 .8 7 0 .1 8 0 .5 6 ,5 0 5 1 0 ,8 9 6 1 6 ,9 4 3 4 5 to 5 4 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 4 .6 6 2 .9 7 1 .3 6 ,6 8 3 7 ,2 3 0 1 1 ,4 0 8 5 5 to 6 4 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 0 .9 4 1 .7 4 2 .7 4 ,3 2 3 4 ,9 1 1 4 ,6 9 5 8 .2 7 .5 5 .5 1 .0 4 2 1 ,1 7 3 1 ,0 4 9 6 1 .5 7 8 .7 6 4 .6 6 6 .8 9 8 ,4 9 2 1 1 0 ,0 8 6 5 6 ,0 6 2 5 9 ,8 9 4 3 5 to 4 4 65 and over ............................................................ 7 7 .1 7 5 .8 8 2 ,8 3 1 5 0 ,3 2 4 1 6 to 2 4 .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 4 .4 7 5 .0 7 7 .0 1 0 ,9 3 1 1 0 ,9 7 7 9 ,0 5 1 2 5 to 54 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 5 .1 9 4 .8 9 4 .0 3 1 ,2 2 5 3 7 ,0 6 7 4 4 ,0 6 2 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 4 9 .7 4 2 .2 3 3 .3 8 ,1 6 7 8 ,0 1 6 6 ,7 8 1 W o m e n ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 4 5 .9 5 3 .3 5 8 .4 3 2 ,5 0 8 4 2 ,4 3 1 5 0 ,1 9 2 5 9 .0 6 5 .5 6 8 .3 8 ,9 8 8 9 ,7 0 6 8 ,1 7 5 5 4 .3 6 8 .0 7 8 .0 1 8 ,7 3 2 2 7 ,3 7 8 3 7 ,0 9 0 2 2 .7 2 1 .8 1 8 .7 4 ,7 8 8 5 ,3 4 6 4 ,9 2 7 5 8 .8 6 2 .2 6 5 .8 9 ,2 6 3 1 2 ,0 3 3 1 4 ,7 9 6 7 1 .0 7 0 .8 6 ,1 2 6 W h i t e ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... M e n .................... 55 and over 16 to 24 2 5 to 54 ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 55 and over B l a c k .................................................................................... M e n ............................................................................................... 16 to 2 4 .......................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 5 to 24 55 and over W o m e n ..................................................................................... 1 6 to 2 4 2 5 to 54 55 and over ............................................................................................................................................................................... 6 2 .3 6 9 .5 5 3 .4 5 ,0 1 6 6 0 .3 1 ,2 3 7 1 ,4 6 2 1 ,1 4 6 8 8 .6 8 8 .1 8 6 .2 3 ,1 0 9 4 ,0 4 1 5 ,5 ? 8 7 ,2 1 5 4 4 .7 3 6 .2 2 9 .5 6 70 623 541 4 8 .9 5 5 .2 6 2 .7 4 ,2 4 7 5 ,9 0 7 7 ,5 8 1 4 5 .5 4 9 .7 5 0 .9 1 ,0 7 8 1 ,2 9 1 1 ,1 4 0 6 0 .9 7 0 .6 2 5 .4 8 2 .2 2 ,6 5 1 3 ,9 9 4 5 ,7 9 1 2 3 .4 5 17 621 650 26 2 21 from Individual Retirement Accounts ( ir a ’s ) at age 59Vz, which may also contribute to the trend in lower participation. Older people dominate the groups with rapidly declining labor force participation. Following are the eight groups with the most rapidly declining participation rates projected for 1984-95: Race Projected decline per year Age group Black men ........... White men ........... Black women __ White women __ Black men ........... White men ........... Black men ........... Black men ........... By 1995, more of the total U.S. population, including children, is projected to be in the labor force than not in the labor force, as the economic dependency ratio shows. (The economic dependency ratio is defined as the number of persons not in the labor force, including those under age 16, per hundred persons in the labor force.) The numerator of the economic dependency ratio can be decomposed by age: those under 16, those 16 to 64, and those 65 and over. The following tabulation shows the economic dependency ratio, 1955-95: 65 and older 65 and over 65 and over 65 and over 60-64 60-64 18-19 16-17 - 5 .4 - 3 .5 - 2 .9 - 2 .6 - 1 .8 -1 .1 - .7 - .7 1955 Implications of underlying assumptions 1955 1965 1975 1984 1995 40.2 40.3 40.1 40.5 — 35.8 36.5 34.8 34.8 34.1 35.2 35.4 34.5 35.3 33.5 37.6 37.9 37.3 37.8 36.3 1975 1984 1995 125.0 61.1 43.4 20.5 104.5 47.9 34.9 21.7 98.4 46.1 28.2 24.0 The drop in the economic dependency ratio over the 1955— 95 period in the 16-64 age group (from 51 persons per hundred workers to 28 per hundred) reflects the steady entry of women into the work force. The ratio for this age group has dropped by a third over the last 30 years. The ratio attributed to youth has also dropped by more than a third. In 1955, the youth ratio was high because of the baby-boom births; then it dropped with the entry of the baby-boom generation into the work force. The dependency ratio attributed to older people has grown over the period, reflecting both the aging of the population and lower participation of older workers. By 1995, this group would account for a quarter of the ratio, up from a tenth in 1955. Although older people account for the small est segment of the “ dependent” population, their costs per person are three times that of the other groups.15 Thus, a cost-weighted dependency ratio for older people would rise, and older persons would account for a larger portion of the overall ratio. Prime working age workers (those 25 to 54) are projected to account for 74 percent of the 1995 labor force, compared with 66 percent in 1984 and 61 percent in 1970. Women would make up nearly 60 percent of the increase. Because of the drop in the numbers of younger and older workers, prime working age men would also be an increasing pro portion of the labor force in the 1990’s. This development should have a positive effect on labor productivity. The increase in relative size of the prime age male labor force comes about because of the more rapid drop in participation or population of other age groups, not because of a rise in prime age male participation. The rise in women’s share results from the drop in younger and older workers, as well as from a rise in participation of women. To pursue the age structure of the labor force further, the median age of the labor force peaked around 1960, affected by the rapid entry of the baby-boom generation into the labor force in the 1970’s. By 1975, it had dropped sharply; the drop over the next 9 years has been more modest. Under the assumptions of the middle growth projection, the median age of the labor force would increase from 1984 through 1995. The 1995 labor force would be older than the 1975 labor force (have a greater median age). For the population as a whole, women are older than men; however, for the labor force, men have a greater median age. The difference in the median age of women and men in the labor force was 1Vz years in 1955. This difference narrowed over the 1960’s, but remains and is projected to continue. The white labor force was less than a year older than the black labor force in the mid-1970’s, a difference that is projected to continue. Following is the median age of the labor force by sex and race, 1955-95: T otal....... 40.0 Men .................. 40.5 Women ............. 38.7 White................. 40.3 B lack.................. — 1965 Total .................... 142.8 151.8 Under 16 years ............. 74.9 81.3 16-64 years ................ 51.4 50.6 65 years and over .......... 16.4 19.9 Women. The proportion of the labor force that is female increased from 40 percent in 1975 and 44 percent in 1984 and is projected to reach 46 percent by 1995. Although women are more than half the population 16 and older, they will not account for half of the labor force as long as their participation rates remain 10 percentage points lower than men of the same age. Women do account for slightly more than half of the increment to the population 16 and older; during the early 1970’s, when the baby-boom group was entering the labor force, each sex contributed to the labor force growth in proportion to their population growth. During the late 1970’s as the entry of the baby-boom generation ended, women provided a greater share of the increment to the labor force. During the early 1980’s, their share of labor force growth was more than 10 percentage points more than their addition to the population. In the late 1980’s, as their participation growth slows, the percent of the increment should fall slightly, and continue falling in the early 1990’s. The following 22 of the lessening of the marriage squeeze which also could cause the participation rates for these women to slow even more over the next decade. If this occurs, the 1995 labor force would be sharply lower than the middle scenario por trays (low scenario). Should the 1970’s phenomena of ac celerating growth recur during the next decade, the 1995 labor force would be sharply higher than the middle scenario (high scenario). The high scenario presents a labor force with male and female rates nearly converging. This might be attained with a greater proportion of families with two wage earners and either a greater demand for child care facilities or the pres ence of fewer children than are implicit in the middle scen ario. Or it might be achieved with a greater proportion of single heads of household and higher divorce rates, com pared with the middle scenario. Either way, the high scen ario implies substantially greater changes in the traditional family. Further, it assumes the activity rates of black men will increase, converging with those of whites, a sharp change in trends from the past. The low scenario reflects both a sharp deceleration in the trends of the 1970’s and a modest deceleration of the 1980— 84 trend. This scenario represents a return to the growth pattern of the 1950’s and early 1960’s. While not a reversal of the growth in women’s participation rates and related shifts in marital status, this scenario implies only modest growth. A second assumption for the middle scenario concerns the relative trends in black-white participation. Over the last two decades, the rates for black and white women have been converging (toward the higher black rates), while the rates for black and white men have been diverging. The middle (and low) scenario assumes these respective trends will con tinue. The high scenario assumes that the rates for black men converges to the higher white male rates. tabulation shows the percent of population and labor force growth attributed to women, 1970-95: Labor force . . Population .. . Difference .. 1 9 7 0 -7 5 1 9 7 5 -8 0 1 9 8 0 -8 4 1 9 8 4 -9 0 1 9 9 0 -9 5 53.9 53.2 .5 60.9 52.5 8.4 63.9 51.7 12.2 63.7 52.1 11.5 61.3 51.8 9.5 Blacks should account for a growing proportion of both the population and of the labor force between now and 1995. Their proportion of the population is expected to increase more than their proportion of the labor force. The population growth reflects higher fertility and. thus a young er population. This in itself partially explains why the pro portion of blacks is higher in the population than in the labor force— more blacks than whites are too young to work. In addition, younger blacks of working age have substantially lower participation than other population groups. The com bination of these two factors explains blacks' modest share of the labor force increment in the mid-1970's. a time when many youth were entering the labor force. While the pro portion of growth attributed to women levels out after 1990. blacks should account for a growing proportion of the labor force after 1990, indicating their great importance in labor force developments as the century ends. The following tab ulation shows the percent of population and labor force growth attributed to blacks, 1972-95: Blacks. 1 9 7 2 -7 5 Labor force . 8.2 Population .. . 13.6 Difference .. . - 5.4 1 9 7 5 -8 0 12.2 14.2 - 2.0 1 9 8 0 -8 4 17.7 17.8 - .1 1 9 8 4 -9 0 1 9 9 0 -9 5 17.2 18.6 - 1.4 18.3 20.1 - 1.8 Alternative scenarios The projections reflect underlying assumptions; the results are significantly altered by changes in those assumptions. Different assumptions yield a 1995 labor force ranging from 124.4 million participants (low scenario) to 134.1 million (high scenario).16 (See table 5.) In the middle scenario, participation rates of women ages 20 to 29 are assumed to continue their 1977-84 trends over the 1984-95 period. During the late 1960’s and 1970’s, the participation for 20- to 29-year-old women steadily accel erated. Growth slowed in the mid-1970’s, in part, because Previous bls projections The 1995 labor force projections described above are lower than those published in 1983, but higher than those published in 1980. (See table 6.) The current projections are lower than the 1983 projec tions because they reflect the slowdown in the rate of growth Table 5. Three scenarios of the civilian labor force and participation rates, by sex, age, and race, projections for 1995 P a rtic ip a tio n rate L a b o r fo rc e (th o u s a n d s ) G ro u p T o t a l ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. M en H ig h M id d le Lo w H ig h M id d le Lo w 6 9 .2 6 6 .6 6 4 .2 1 3 4 ,0 8 5 1 2 9 ,1 6 8 1 2 4 ,4 1 1 7 1 ,6 2 1 6 9 ,2 8 2 6 6 ,2 1 9 7 7 .8 .................... 7 5 .3 7 1 .9 1 6 to 2 4 y e a rs ............................................................................................................................................................................... 77 5 7 3 .9 66 7 1 1 ,0 5 0 1 0 ,5 4 0 9 ,5 1 4 2 5 to 5 4 y e a r s ............................................................................................................................................................................... 94 4 9 3 .0 90 7 5 1 ,9 5 9 5 1 ,2 0 0 4 9 ,9 5 5 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3 7 .8 3 3 .1 2 9 .7 8 ,6 1 2 7 ,5 4 2 6 ,7 5 0 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 61 4 58 9 57 2 6 2 ,4 6 4 5 9 ,8 8 6 5 8 ,1 9 2 1 6 to 2 4 y e a r s ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 8 .6 6 5 .3 64 4 1 0 ,1 1 2 9 ,6 2 3 9 ,4 9 5 2 5 to 5 4 y e a rs 4 3 ,1 3 2 55 y e a rs an d o v e r W om en 8 1 .2 7 8 .1 7 5 .7 4 6 ,2 9 2 4 4 ,5 1 9 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 20 2 1 9 .1 1 8 .5 6 ,0 6 0 5 ,7 4 4 5 ,5 6 5 W h i t e ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 9 .0 66 8 1 1 3 ,7 6 1 1 1 0 ,0 8 6 1 0 6 ,3 2 7 B l a c k ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 70 3 6 5 .8 6 4 .5 60 4 1 5 ,9 3 2 1 4 ,7 9 6 1 3 ,6 8 6 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 55 y e a rs an d o v e r 23 ever, the revised population projections accounted for less than 1 percent of the overall change. One reason the current and 1980 projections differ is because of revisions in the population projections, the result of the introduction of the population controls from the 1980 Census. Also, the difference between the current and the 1980 projected labor force reflects changes in labor force activity. How accurate are these new projections? This question obviously cannot be answered until after 1995, but the ac curacy of past b l s projections has been reviewed. Between 1965 and 1976, b l s published four projections of the 1980 labor force. Each underestimated the 1980 labor force by 1.7 to 2.9 percent. Most of the discrepancy was attributed to an underestimation of participation rates of women.17 T h e l a b o r fo r c e w ill c o n t in u e t o g r o w , according to the middle growth scenario, although more slowly than in the recent past. Women’s labor force participation would continue to grow slowly. Blacks would be a greater pro portion of the labor force. By 1995, about three-quarters of the labor force would be in the 25- to 54-year-old age group, reflecting the aging of the baby-boom generation and the drop in participation by older workers. Table 6. Comparison of current and previous labor force middle growth projections for 1995 [N u m b e r s in th o u s a n d s ) P r o je c tio n s m a d e in Hem D iffe re n c e b e tw e e n 1 9 8 5 a n d p ra v lo u s p ro je c tio n s Num ber 19 8 5 198 3 P e rc e n t 19 8 0 1983 19 8 0 198 3 19 8 0 L a b o r fo rc e : To ta l M en ......................................... 1 2 9 ,1 6 8 .................................................. 6 9 ,2 8 2 W o m e n ......................................... 5 9 ,8 8 6 - 1 .7 1 3 1 ,3 8 7 1 2 7 ,5 4 2 - 2 ,2 1 9 1 ,6 2 6 6 9 ,9 7 0 6 7 ,6 1 1 -6 8 8 1 ,6 7 1 - 1 .0 5 9 ,9 3 1 - 1 ,5 3 1 -4 5 - 2 .5 - 6 1 ,4 1 7 1 .3 2 .5 .1 P a r t ic ip a t io n ra te : ......................................... 6 6 .6 6 7 .8 6 8 .6 - 1 .2 - 2 .0 - 1 .8 - 2 .9 .................................................. 7 5 .3 7 6 .1 7 6 .8 - .8 - 1 .5 - 1 .1 - 2 .0 ........................................ 5 8 .6 6 0 .3 6 1 .2 - 1 .7 - 2 .6 - 2 .8 - 4 .2 To ta l M en W om en P o p u l a t io n : To ta l ........................................ 1 9 3 ,8 1 7 1 9 3 ,8 3 3 1 8 6 ,0 3 4 -1 6 7 ,7 8 3 9 2 ,0 6 5 9 1 ,9 4 7 8 8 ,0 3 1 118 4 ,0 3 4 <1 ) .1 4 .2 .................................................. W o m e n ........................................ 1 0 1 ,7 5 2 1 0 1 ,8 8 6 9 8 ,0 0 3 -1 3 4 3 ,7 4 9 - .1 3 .8 M en ’ B e tw e e n - 4 .6 .1 a n d 0 .0 . in women’s participation which started in 1978 and contin ued through 1984. Much of the decrease in men’s labor force participation occurred among older men whose par ticipation is projected to continue to decrease. There were modest changes in the projected size of the population, reflecting the revision in mortality at the older ages. How ■FOOTNOTES ’These projections replace those described by Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and John Tschetter in “The 1995 labor force: a second look,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 3-10; and Howard N Fullerton, Jr., The 1995 labor force: a first look,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1980, pp. 11-21. 2Projections of the Population of the United States: 1983 to 2080, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952 (Bureau of the Census, 1984). 3For a short description of the BLS demographic labor force projec-. tion methodology, see part II of this bulletin. , 4The labor force (civilian labor force and resident Armed Forces)- is projected to be 124,450,000 in 1990 and 130,965,000 in 1995. Of these, 55,698,000 in 1990 will be women and 60,462,000 in 1995 will be women. Because there is no age or race detail in the resident Armed Forces measure of the labor force, this article is based on the civilian labor force. sData are from the Census Bureau. 6Vernon M. Briggs, Jr., Immigration Policy and the American Labor Force (Baltimore, m d , The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1984), p. 1. 7Marion F. Houstoun, “ Aliens in irregular status in the United States: a review of their numbers, characteristics, and role in the U.S. labor market,” International Migration, 1983, pp. 372-414. 8Robert Schoen, “ Measuring the Tightness of a Marriage Squeeze,” Demography, February 1983, pp. 61-78. According to Schoen, “The marriage squeeze is shown to be capable of producing significant changes in both the level and distribution of marriage” (p. 61). Also see Kingsley Davis, “ Wives and work: Consequences of the sex role revolution,” Pop ulation and Development Review, September 1984, pp. 397-417; and Kingsley Davis and Peitronella van den Oever, “ Demographic foundations of new sex roles,” Population and Development Review, September 1982, pp. 495-511; Willard L. Rodgers and Arland Thornton, “ Changing Pat terns of First Marriage in the United States,” Demography, May 1985, pp. 265-79; and Thomas J. Espenshade, “ Marriage trends in America: Estimates, implications, and causes,” Population and Development Re view, June 1985, pp. 193-245. 9Valarie Kincade Oppenheimer, “The life-cycle squeeze: The interac 24 tion of men’s occupational and family cycles,” Demography, May 1974, pp. 257-45. 10Valarie Kincade Oppenheimer, “ The Easterlin hypothesis: another aspect of the echo,” Population and Development Review, SeptemberDecember 1976, pp. 433-57. “ Richard Easterlin, “ Relative economic status and the American fer tility swing,” in Eleanor Sheldon, ed., Family Economic Behavior (Phil adelphia, p a , Lippincott, 1973); Richard Easterlin, Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare (New York, Basic Books, 1980). Also, see Finis Welch, “ Effects of Cohort Size on Earnings,” Journal of Political Economy, October 1979, pp. 565-98; and Richard B. Freeman, “ The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles, ’’ The Jour nal of Human Resources, summer 1979, pp. 289-318. 12See J. Gregory Robinson, 44Labor Force Participation Rates of Cohorts ofWomen in the United States: 1890-1979,” presented at the 1980 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America; and Claudia Goldin, “The Changing Economic Role of Women: A Quantitative Approach,” Journal of Interdisciplinary History, spring 1983, pp. 707-33. 13David A. Wise, “ Labor Aspects of Pension Plans,” n b er Reporter, Winter 1984-85, pp. 23-25. “ Robert L. Clark, “ Aging and labor force participation,” in Pauline K. Robinson, Judy Livingston, and James E. Birren, eds., Aging and Technological Advances (New York, Plenum, 1985), pp. 39-54. “ Robert Clark and Joseph Spengler, “ Dependency ratios: Their use in economic analysis,” in Julian Simon and Julie Devanzo, eds., Research in Population Economics, Vol. 2 (Greenwich, c t , j a i Press, 1980), pp. 63-67. 16b l s ’ alternative scenarios of gross national product, industry output, and employment trends and occupational requirements use the macro labor force model’s projections of total labor force. This was done because the macro labor force is part of the macroeconometric model of the economic projections. “ See Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “ How accurate were the 1980 labor force projections,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1982, pp. 15-21. A second look at industry output and employment trends through 1995 In new BLS projections, the shift o f employment from manufacturing to services in coming years is more pronounced , but manufacturing output continues to be an important factor in GNP growth Valerie A. Personick New projections prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that, under a certain set of macroeconomic assump tions, total employment will reach almost 123 million in 1995, a gain of nearly 16 million jobs from 1984. Almost 9 out of every 10 of these new jobs will be added in a service-producing industry (transportation, communica tions, public utilities, trade, finance, insurance, real estate, miscellaneous services, and government). The remainder are projected to be goods-producing jobs (manufacturing, construction, mining, and agriculture). One component of the broadly defined service-producing sector, the miscellaneous services sector (which includes business, personal, and medical services), will account for almost half of the 16 million new jobs. Growth in miscel laneous services between 1984 and 1995 is projected to be almost double the average rate of 1.3 percent for the econ omy as a whole. By 1995, this sector is expected to account for more than 1 out of every 4 jobs in the U.S. economy. The Bureau has developed three alternative sets of eco nomic and employment projections for the year 1995. The macroeconomic assumptions underlying these projections, which consist of a high-growth, moderate-growth, and lowgrowth scenario, are described by Bureau economist Betty Su on pp. 2—15. This article focuses on the employment and output of the middle projection, with the two alternatives described later. Overview The business services industry is projected to have the most new jobs and the second-fastest rate of growth among the 149 industries studied.1The continued shift toward con tracting out some firm operations and growth in demand for computer software and other types of modem business ser vices are factors underlying this development. Jobs in durable manufacturing industries are projected to rise by 1.5 million, but this gain will be partly offset by a 0.1 million decline in nondurable goods jobs. Employment in manufacturing is projected to just top 21 million by 1995, slightly below its 1979 peak. Although manufacturing employment shows only modest growth between 1984 and 1995, the value of output in manufacturing is projected to rise rapidly. Under the as sumptions of the moderate-growth scenario, the capital spending boom of 1984 will continue; exports of manufac tured goods will grow rapidly after the current imbalances in international exchange rates equilibrate; and defense de mand will continue strong at least through 1990. These factors spur production in manufacturing to a 3.0-percent yearly increase, compared to 2.9 percent for real gnp as a whole. The rise in manufacturing output without corre sponding increases in employment occurs because of the projected faster rate of advance in productivity in this sector. The projection of total employment of 122.8 million in 1995 represents growth averaging 1.5 percent a year from 1984 to 1990 and 1.0 percent during 1990-95. In the earlier years, there is still some residual recovery from the 1980— Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 25 82 recessionary period, but this is followed by a long-term slowdown in employment growth related to a decline in labor force growth. The deceleration of the labor force ac tually began in 1979, as the first members of the smaller birth cohort from the “baby bust” of the late 1960’s reached working age. (Howard N Fullerton provides a complete discussion of this point in his article on pp. 16-24 of this» bulletin.) Of the 122.8 million employment level projected for 1995, 8.9 million workers are expected to be nonagricultural selfemployed and unpaid family workers. The number of selfemployed persons has been rising in recent years, especially during the cyclical downswing. When new hiring is tight, some people go into business for themselves or supplement their salaried jobs with side businesses. Most self-employed jobs are concentrated in trade or service industries. Despite the shrinking importance of the cyclical factor, the projected continued shift to service sector employment will contribute to the growth of self-employment—by increasing the de mand for business and professional consultants, for exam ple. Overall, g n p is projected to expand by 3.0 percent a year to 1990, slowing to 2.8 percent between 1990 and 1995. A steady economy is assumed, with no business cycle fluc tuations or major economic upheavals. The civilian un employment rate is projected to drop from 7.5 percent in 1984 to 6.3 percent in 1990 and 6.0 percent in 1995. Where will the new jobs be? From 1959 to 1984, the U.S. economy added nearly 40 million jobs, one-half of them during the 1969-79 period. As has been well documented, service-producing industries, especially the other services sector, have absorbed ever in creasing proportions of this rapidly expanding work force. Goods-producing industries, on the other hand, have de clined in importance as employment sources, although they still contribute a sizable share to g n p . Manufacturing jobs were 25.1 percent of all jobs in 1959, but only 18.5 percent by 1984. (See table 1.) Other services, in contrast, ac counted for 14.1 percent of total employment in 1959 and 22.4 percent in 1984. While manufacturing gained almost 3 million jobs over the 1959-84 period, this growth was dwarfed by the 14 million added in the other services sector. However, simply looking at jobs somewhat overem phasizes the restructuring of the U.S. economy. In terms of output, the restructuring has been far more modest. (See table 2.) Manufacturing production represented 26.6 percent of private g n p in 1959, rose to a high of 29.7 percent during the peak of the Vietnam war buildup, and then tapered slowly to 25.7 percent by 1984. Overall, the manufacturing share of output dropped less than 1 percentage point over the 25-year span 1959-84, compared with a 6.6-percentagepoint decline in its share of total jobs. Other important employment shifts over the 25-year pe riod included the shrinkage of the agricultural sector, with 26 an absolute decline of 2.3 million jobs and a drop in share of total employment from 8.2 percent to 3.1 percent. Gov ernment jobs (Federal, State, and local) increased from less than 12 percent of total employment in 1959 to 15.7 percent in 1979. However, since then the public sector share of the total has fallen, although employment levels have not changed much. Many of the shifts seen over the last 25 years are projected to continue to 1995. The employment shift to services is one of these, with jobs in industries such as business ser vices, health care, professional services, and others ac counting for 25.4 percent of all jobs by 1995. Similarly, government employment is projected to grow modestly in absolute levels but to decline as a share of total employment, continuing the trend started in the late 1970’s. Chart 1 il lustrates the relative employment growth of some of the major sectors. Business services. The business services industry is pro jected to lead all others in numbers of new jobs and to rank second in terms of rate of employment growth. (See table 3.) This is the case despite the relatively small size of the industry compared to some others, such as retail trade, eat ing and drinking places, wholesale trade, and new construc tion. Each of these other industries had more employment than business services in 1984—in fact, retail trade was almost three times as large—but they will add smaller num bers of new jobs through 1995 than business services. More than 2.6 million new business service jobs are projected to be added to 1984’s level of 4.6 million, an annual growth rate of 4.2 percent. Table 4 shows employment projections for detailed business service industries. The expansion of the business services industry has been tremendous over the past few decades, with real output increasing fivefold over the past 20 years and employment quadrupling. Growth has been spurred by a combination of factors. First, many new types of services have now become integral parts of modem business operations. The computer and other technological advances have led to demand for programming and software services and for a whole range of consulting and management services. Security services have become widespread as organizations attempt to curb high insurance premiums and uninsured losses. Require ments for temporary help have expanded beyond clerical jobs to include technical and professional occupations. These and other new types of services have been introduced or have expanded in recent years and are now necessary in the operations of many firms. Second, firms have found it more efficient to contract out many of these services rather than rely on in-house staff. An outside contractor can maintain a large specialized staff and enjoy economies of scale not possible for each indi vidual firm. For permanent operations, such as security or janitorial services, overhead and management expenses are reduced by contracting out,2 and for one-time or infrequent Table 1. Employment by major sector, 1959-95 E m p lo y m e n t (in th o u s a n d s )1 Pro je c te d A c tu a l E c o n o m ic se cto r 19 9 0 19 5 9 19 9 5 198 4 19 79 19 6 9 Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h Lo w H ig h M o d e ra te T o t a l ............................................................................................................................. 6 7 ,7 8 4 8 1 ,5 0 8 1 0 1 ,4 7 1 1 0 6 ,8 4 1 1 1 2 ,7 9 7 1 1 6 ,8 6 5 1 1 9 ,0 2 0 1 1 7 ,2 6 8 1 2 2 ,7 6 0 A g r i c u l t u r e .................................................................................................................................. 5 ,5 8 3 3 ,6 2 2 3 ,3 4 0 3 ,2 9 3 3 ,1 2 5 3 ,1 6 4 3 ,2 0 1 2 ,9 7 1 3 ,0 5 9 3 ,1 2 8 1 2 7 ,7 1 9 6 2 ,2 0 1 7 7 ,8 8 6 9 8 ,1 3 1 1 0 3 ,5 4 8 1 0 9 ,6 7 2 1 1 3 ,7 0 1 1 1 5 ,8 1 9 1 1 4 ,2 9 7 1 1 9 ,7 0 0 1 2 4 ,5 9 1 ........................................ 8 ,0 8 3 1 2 ,1 9 5 1 5 ,9 4 7 1 5 ,9 8 4 1 6 ,4 6 5 1 6 ,5 9 6 1 6 ,7 9 5 1 6 ,8 2 0 1 7 ,1 4 4 1 7 ,5 9 2 ............................................................................................................................. N o n a g r ic u lt u r e ................................................................................................................... G o v e r n m e n t (in c lu d in g e n t e r p ris e s ) 2 ,2 3 3 2 ,7 5 8 2 ,7 7 3 2 ,8 0 7 2 ,7 9 0 2 ,7 9 0 2 ,7 9 0 2 ,8 0 0 2 ,8 0 0 2 ,8 0 0 .................................................................................................... 5 ,8 5 0 9 ,4 3 7 1 3 ,1 7 4 1 3 ,1 7 7 1 3 ,6 7 5 1 3 ,8 0 6 1 4 ,0 0 5 1 4 ,0 2 0 1 4 ,3 4 4 1 4 ,7 9 2 P r i v a t e ....................................................................................................................................... 5 4 ,1 1 8 6 5 ,6 9 1 8 2 ,1 8 4 8 7 ,5 6 4 9 3 ,2 0 7 9 7 ,1 0 5 9 9 ,0 2 4 9 7 ,4 7 7 1 0 2 ,5 5 6 1 0 6 ,9 9 9 Fe d e ra l S ta te a n d lo c a l 6 14 501 70 4 651 633 659 6 76 600 631 ......................................................................................................... 3 ,9 1 0 4 ,3 7 4 5 ,8 7 9 5 ,9 2 0 5 ,9 1 0 6 ,1 8 9 6 ,2 7 6 6 ,3 3 1 6 ,6 3 6 6 ,8 5 6 .................................................................................................... 1 7 ,0 1 8 2 0 ,4 6 7 2 1 ,4 0 1 1 9 ,7 7 9 2 0 ,0 6 3 2 0 ,9 1 3 2 1 ,3 2 0 2 0 ,0 8 9 2 1 ,1 2 4 2 2 ,0 3 7 ................................................................................................................... 9 ,5 8 2 1 2 ,0 8 0 1 2 ,9 8 5 1 1 ,7 4 4 1 2 ,3 4 9 1 2 ,8 7 2 1 3 ,1 2 2 1 2 ,5 6 8 1 3 ,2 1 6 1 3 ,7 8 8 N o n d u r a b l e .......................................................................................................... 7 ,4 3 6 8 ,3 8 7 8 ,4 1 6 8 ,0 3 5 7 ,7 1 4 8 ,0 4 1 8 ,1 9 8 7 ,5 2 1 7 ,9 0 8 8 ,2 4 9 .......................................................................................... 4 ,2 5 5 4 ,6 3 7 5 ,4 1 4 5 ,5 0 0 5 ,7 2 6 5 ,9 5 7 6 ,0 6 5 5 ,9 9 6 6 ,3 0 4 6 ,5 8 6 2 9 ,5 4 5 M in i n g ............................................................................................................................. C o n s tru c tio n M a n u f a c t u r in g D u r a b le 661 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c o m m u n i c a t io n s , a n d p u b lic u tilitie s 2 .................................................................................................................................. 1 3 ,4 9 2 1 6 ,6 7 1 2 2 ,3 1 1 2 4 ,2 9 0 2 5 ,9 9 1 2 7 ,1 0 6 2 7 ,7 0 6 2 6 ,8 4 8 2 8 ,2 7 2 F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d real e s t a t e .................................... 2 ,9 5 9 3 ,8 5 9 5 ,5 1 4 6 ,2 9 6 6 ,6 9 9 6 ,9 9 1 7 ,1 4 6 7 ,0 2 4 7 ,3 9 7 7 ,7 1 6 S e r v ic e s 9 ,5 9 1 1 3 ,3 2 6 1 9 ,6 3 5 2 3 ,8 8 6 2 7 ,0 8 0 2 8 ,1 4 2 2 8 ,6 6 2 2 9 ,6 0 7 3 1 ,1 7 0 3 2 ,5 3 7 2 ,2 7 9 1 ,8 5 6 1 ,3 2 6 1 ,2 4 2 1 ,1 0 6 1 ,1 4 8 1 ,1 7 4 982 1 ,0 2 3 1 ,0 6 0 1 0 0 .0 Tra d e ........................................................................................................................ P r iv a t e h o u s e h o l d s ..................................................................................... P e rc e n t d is trib u tio n T o t a l ............................................................................................................................. 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 A g r i c u l t u r e ................................................................................................................................... 8 .2 4 .4 3 .3 3 .1 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 9 1 .8 9 5 .6 9 6 .7 9 6 .9 9 7 .2 9 7 .3 9 7 .3 9 7 .5 9 7 .5 9 7 .6 ........................................ 1 1 .9 1 5 .0 1 5 .7 1 5 .0 1 4 .6 1 4 .2 1 4 .1 1 4 .3 1 4 .0 1 3 .8 ............................................................................................................................. N o n a g r ic u lt u r e .................................................................................................................... G o v e r n m e n t (in c lu d in g e n t e r p ris e s ) 3 .3 3 .4 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .4 2 .3 ..................................................................................................... 8 .6 1 1 .6 1 3 .0 1 2 .3 1 2 .1 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 2 .0 1 1 .7 1 1 .6 P r i v a t e ....................................................................................................................................... 7 9 .8 8 0 .6 8 1 .0 8 2 .0 6 2 .6 8 3 .1 8 3 .2 8 3 .1 8 3 .5 8 3 .8 Fe d e ra l S ta te a n d lo c a l M in i n g .9 .6 .7 .6 .6 .6 .6 .5 .5 .5 ......................................................................................................... 5 .8 5 .4 5 .8 5 .5 5 .2 5 .3 5 .3 5 .4 5 .4 5 .4 .................................................................................................... 2 5 .1 .............................................................................................................................. C o n s tr u c ti o n 2 .2 2 5 .1 2 1 .1 1 8 .5 1 7 .8 1 7 .9 1 7 .9 1 7 .1 1 7 .2 1 7 .3 ................................................................................................................... 1 4 .1 1 4 .8 1 2 .8 1 1 .0 1 0 .9 1 1 .0 1 1 .0 1 0 .7 1 0 .8 1 0 .8 N o n d u r a b l e ......................................................................................................... 1 1 .0 1 0 .3 8 .3 7 .5 6 .8 6 .9 6 .9 6 .4 6 .4 6 .5 M a n u f a c t u r in g D u r a b le T r a n s p o r t a t io n , c o m m u n i c a t io n s , a n d .......................................................................................... 6 .3 5 .7 5 .3 5 .1 5 .1 5 .1 5 .1 5 .1 5 .1 5 .2 .................................................................................................................................. 1 9 .9 2 0 .5 2 2 .0 2 2 .7 2 3 .0 2 3 .2 2 3 .3 2 2 .9 2 3 .0 2 3 .1 F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d real e s t a t e ................................... 4 .4 4 .7 5 .4 5 .9 5 .9 6 .0 6 .0 6 .0 6 .0 6 .0 1 4 .1 1 6 .3 1 9 .4 2 2 .4 2 4 .0 2 4 .1 2 4 .1 2 5 .2 2 5 .4 2 5 .5 3 .4 2 .3 1 .3 1 .2 1 .0 1 .0 1 .0 .8 .8 .8 p u b lic u tilitie s 2 Tra d e S e rv ic e s ........................................................................................................................ P r iv a t e h o u s e h o l d s ..................................................................................... A v e r a g e a n n u a l rate o f ch an g e 19 8 4 -9 0 1 9 5 9 -6 9 1 9 6 9 -7 9 Low T o t a l ............................................................................................................................. 1 .9 A g r i c u l t u r e .................................................................................................................................. - 4 .2 N o n a g r ic u lt u r e ................................................................................................................... 2 .2 - .8 1 9 9 0 -9 5 19 8 4 -9 5 1 9 7 9 -8 4 1 .0 - .3 2 .3 2 .3 1 .1 4 .2 M o d e ra te 0 .9 - .9 H ig h 1 .5 . 1 .0 7 Lo w 0 .8 1 .8 - 5 -1 19 1 .6 M o d e ra te 0 H ig h 1 .4 1 .0 - 8 4 .7 10 7 Lo w - .5 M o d e ra te 0 .9 - 1 .5 9 H ig h 1 .3 - .7 .9 1 .3 1 .6 - .5 1 .7 2 .7 .0 5 .6 .1 .2 .1 8 .1 9 2 .1 .1 1 .1 .0 .0 .0 .................................................................................................... 4 .9 3 .4 .0 .6 .8 1 .0 .5 8 1 .1 .6 .8 1 .1 P r i v a t e ....................................................................................................................................... M in in g .............................................................................................................................. 2 .0 - 2 .0 2 .3 1 .0 1 .7 2 .1 9 .6 .9 1 .0 7 1 .8 .1 ......................................................................................................... 1 .1 3 .0 .1 .0 .7 1 .0 - 1 .0 1 .4 1 .6 .4 1 .4 3 .5 1 .3 - 1 .6 1 .4 1 .8 .6 1 .0 .................................................................................................... 1 .9 .4 - 1 .6 .2 .9 1 .3 .0 .2 .7 .1 .6 1 .0 ................................................................................................................... 2 .3 .7 - 2 .0 .8 1 .5 1 .9 .4 .5 1 .0 .6 1 .1 1 .5 N o n d u r a b l e ......................................................................................................... - G o v e r n m e n t (in c lu d in g e n t e r p ris e s ) Fe d e ral ........................................ ............................................................................................................................. S ta te a n d lo c a l C o n s tr u c ti o n M a n u f a c t u r in g D u r a b le 1 .2 .0 .......................................................................................... .9 1 .6 .................................................................................................................................. 2 .1 .9 .5 - - - .1 .5 .6 - .2 .7 .0 .7 1 .3 1 .6 .3 1 .8 2.2 - .5 11 - - .3 .1 - .6 - - .3 .1 .9 1 .3 .2 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c o m m u n i c a t io n s , a n d p u b lic u tilitie s 2 Tra d e 3 .0 .3 1 .7 1 .1 .9 1 .1 1 .7 .7 .8 1 .1 .8 1 .2 1 .7 1 .3 .9 1 .4 1 .8 1 .5 1 .0 1 .5 1 .9 2 .4 2 .8 - 1 .4 F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d real e s t a t e ................................... 2 .7 3 .6 2 .7 1 .0 1 .8 2 .1 S e r v ic e s 3.3 4 .0 4 .0 2 .1 2 .8 3 .1 1 .8 2 .1 2 .6 - 1 .9 - 1 .3 .9 - 2 .4 - 2 .3 - 2 .0 ......................................................................................................................... P r iv a t e h o u s e h o l d s ..................................................................................... - 2 .0 -3.3 - 1 .3 - 1 .0 2 .0 - 2 .1 - 1 .7 'I n c l u d e s w a g e a n d s a la r y j o b s , th e s e l f- e m p lo y e d , a n d u n p a id f a m i ly w o r k e r s . 2D o e s n o t m a t c h d e ta il in ta b le 7 b e c a u s e th e s e e s t im a te s e x c lu d e p u b lic e le c tric u tilitie s . operations, it is often quicker and cheaper to hire outside expertise than to develop it in-house. Contracting out for the proliferating new services required in today’s economy has strongly spurred employment growth in the business services industry. The future of the industry depends on the same types of ends: new operations coming into importance and being performed by specialized firms. However, demand for some types of contract business services may be approaching sat uration, and growth for these is, as a consequence, projected to be more modest than for the industry as a whole. Ex amples include detective and protective services and ser vices to buildings. Employment will continue to expand faster in these areas than in most other sectors of the econ27 Table 2. Gross product originating by major sector, 1959-95 B illio n s o f 1 9 7 7 d o lla rs A c tu a l P r o je c te d E c o n o m ic s e c to r 19 9 0 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 79 19 9 5 198 4 Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h $ 3 ,3 1 2 . 4 .................................................................................................... $ 8 7 9 .3 S 1 ,3 3 3 .8 $ 1 ,8 6 0 .4 $ 2 ,0 7 7 . 9 $ 2 ,4 6 5 .3 $ 2 ,5 9 3 .5 $ 2 ,7 5 6 .1 $ 2 ,7 7 6 .4 $ 3 ,0 0 5 .1 A g r i c u l t u r e ................................................................................................................................... 4 4 .7 4 7 .8 5 6 .8 6 5 .9 7 0 .0 7 3 .8 7 8 .2 7 3 .5 8 0 .7 8 8 .5 3 ,2 2 3 . 9 T o t a l p r iv a te ................................................................................................................... 8 3 4 .6 1 ,2 8 6 .0 1 ,8 0 3 .6 2 ,0 1 2 . 0 2 ,3 9 5 .3 2 ,5 1 9 .7 2 ,6 7 7 .9 2 ,7 0 2 . 9 2 ,9 2 4 .4 M i n i n g ........................................................................................................................................ 3 2 .7 4 4 .8 5 1 .2 5 5 .0 5 6 .3 6 0 .1 6 4 .5 5 7 .5 6 4 .8 7 2 .6 C o n s tru c tio n .................................................................................................................... 7 1 .3 8 7 .4 9 1 .3 8 5 .7 9 7 .7 1 0 0 .6 1 0 3 .5 1 0 7 .3 1 1 3 .3 1 1 8 .2 ............................................................................................................... 2 3 3 .7 3 7 8 .2 5 0 0 .8 5 3 3 .9 6 0 8 .3 6 4 3 .5 6 9 3 .3 6 6 9 .3 7 3 8 .6 8 2 7 .4 D u r a b l e .............................................................................................................................. 13 76 2 3 2 .1 3 0 4 .5 3 2 4 .5 3 8 0 .7 4 0 3 .5 4 3 7 .4 4 2 6 .5 4 7 2 .3 5 3 2 .2 N o n a g r ic u lt u r e M a n u f a c t u r in g 9 6 .1 1 4 6 .1 1 9 6 .3 2 0 9 .4 2 2 7 .6 2 4 0 .0 2 5 5 .9 2 4 2 .8 2 6 6 .3 2 9 5 .2 ................................................................................................ 7 6 .9 1 2 7 .9 1 9 0 .0 2 0 2 .8 2 4 8 .2 2 6 0 .0 2 7 8 .4 2 8 6 .3 3 1 0 .5 3 4 1 .0 ..................................................................................................... 4 1 .7 6 0 .5 7 8 .5 6 9 .8 7 7 .2 8 0 .9 8 5 .8 8 3 .6 9 0 .6 9 9 .0 C o m m u n i c a t i o n s ................................................................................................ 1 3 .6 2 8 .3 5 8 .0 7 5 .0 1 0 7 .6 1 1 2 .6 1 2 1 .7 1 3 4 .7 1 4 5 .8 1 6 0 .6 N o n d u r a b le ............................................................................................................... T r a n s p o rta tio n , c o m m u n ic a tio n s , a n d p u b lic u tilitie s T r a n s p o r t a t io n P u b l ic u t i l i t i e s .......................................................................................................... 2 1 .6 3 9 .1 5 3 .5 5 8 .0 6 3 .4 T r a d e ............................................................................................................................................. 1 6 0 .7 2 4 2 .3 3 5 0 .2 4 1 1 .6 4 5 7 .2 .................................................................................................................... 6 0 .6 1 0 1 .8 1 5 3 .5 1 8 7 .0 .................................................................................................................................. 1 0 0 .1 1 4 0 .5 1 9 6 .7 2 2 4 .6 ........................................ 1 2 9 .3 2 0 0 .5 3 0 0 .9 3 4 7 .8 .............................................................................................................................. 1 1 6 .7 1 7 9 .0 2 6 4 .0 G o v e r n m e n t e n t e r p r i s e s ................................................................................. 1 6 .0 2 2 .9 2 8 .8 R e s t o f w o r ld a n d s ta tis tic a l d i s c r e p a n c y ......................... - 2 .7 3 .0 2 6 .4 W h o le s a le R e ta il F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d real e s ta te S e rv ic e s ’ 7 0 .9 6 8 .0 7 4 .1 8 1 .4 4 7 6 .1 66 5 5 0 6 .2 4 9 4 .1 5 3 2 .3 5 8 4 .0 2 0 5 .7 2 1 5 .6 2 2 8 .5 2 2 0 .5 2 4 0 .4 2 6 3 .6 2 5 1 .5 2 6 0 .5 2 7 7 .7 2 7 3 .6 2 9 1 .9 3 2 0 .4 4 2 7 .5 4 4 2 .6 4 7 4 .1 4 9 3 .2 5 2 3 .1 5 7 6 .8 3 1 5 .5 3 7 8 .9 3 9 4 .6 4 1 8 .0 4 3 0 .8 4 6 1 .9 5 0 3 .7 2 9 .4 3 3 .1 3 4 .5 3 6 .6 3 6 .2 3 8 .8 4 2 .6 3 0 .3 8 8 .1 1 0 7 .7 1 0 3 .3 1 2 8 .2 1 4 1 .1 1 5 7 .6 P e rc e n t d is trib u tio n 19 9 0 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 79 199 5 19 8 4 Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h ..................................................................................................... 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 A g r i c u l t u r e ................................................................................................................................... 5 .1 3 .6 3 .1 3 .2 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 9 4 .9 9 6 .4 9 6 .9 9 6 .8 9 7 .2 9 7 .2 9 7 .2 9 7 .4 9 7 .4 9 7 .3 T o t a l p r iv a te N o n a g r ic u lt u r e .................................................................................................................... 3 .7 M i n i n g ........................................................................................................................................ 3 .4 2 .8 2 .6 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .1 1 0 0 .0 2 .2 2 .2 .................................................................................................................... 8 .1 6 .6 4 .9 4 .1 4 .0 3 .9 3 .8 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 ............................................................................................................... 2 6 .6 2 8 .4 2 6 .9 2 5 .7 2 4 .7 2 4 .8 2 5 .2 2 4 .1 2 4 .6 2 5 .0 D u r a b l e .............................................................................................................................. 1 5 .6 1 7 .4 1 6 .4 1 5 .6 1 5 .4 1 5 .6 1 5 .9 1 5 .4 1 5 .7 1 6 .1 N o n d u r a b le 1 0 .9 1 1 .0 1 0 .6 1 0 .1 9 .2 9 .3 9 .3 8 .7 8 .9 8 .9 9 .6 1 0 .2 9 .8 1 0 .1 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 1 0 .3 1 0 .3 1 0 .3 C o n s tru c tio n M a n u f a c t u r in g ............................................................................................................... T ra n s p o rta tio n , c o m m u n ic a tio n s , an d ................................................................................................ 8 .7 ..................................................................................................... 4 .7 4 .5 4 .2 3 .4 3 .1 3 .1 3 .1 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 C o m m u n i c a t i o n s ................................................................................................ 1 .5 2 .1 3 .1 3 .6 4 .4 4 .3 4 .4 4 .9 4 .8 4 .8 p u b lic u tilitie s T r a n s p o r t a t io n 2 .5 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 1 8 .3 1 8 .2 1 8 .8 1 9 .8 1 8 .5 1 8 .4 1 8 .4 1 7 .8 1 7 .7 1 7 .6 P u b l ic u t i l i t i e s ......................................................................................................... Tra d e ............................................................................................................................................. 6 .9 7 .6 8 .3 9 .0 8 .3 8 .3 8 .3 1 1 .4 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 0 .8 1 0 .2 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 9 .9 9 .7 9 .7 ........................................ 1 4 .7 1 5 .0 1 6 .2 1 6 .7 1 7 .3 1 7 .1 1 7 .2 1 7 .8 1 7 .4 1 7 .4 S e r v i c e s ’ ................................................................................................................................... 1 3 .3 1 3 .4 1 4 .2 1 5 .2 1 5 .2 1 5 .5 1 5 .4 1 5 .2 1 .8 1 .7 1 .5 1 .4 1 5 .2 1 .4 1 5 .4 G o v e r n m e n t e n t e r p r i s e s ................................................................................. 1 .3 1 .3 1 .5 3 .6 4 .2 1 .3 3 .7 1 .3 4 .6 1 .3 4 .7 1 .3 4 .8 W h o le s a le R e ta il ................................................................................................................... .................................................................................................................................. F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d real e s ta te R e s t o f w o r ld a n d s ta tis tic a l d i s c r e p a n c y ......................... - .3 .2 7 .9 8 .0 8 .0 A v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te o f c h a n g e 19 8 4 -9 0 1 9 5 9 -6 9 1 9 6 9 -7 9 19 9 0 -9 5 19 8 4 -9 5 19 7 9 -8 4 Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h .................................................................................................... 4 .3 3 .4 2 .2 2 .9 3 .8 4 .8 2 .4 3 .0 3 .7 2 .7 3 .4 4 .3 A g r i c u l t u r e .................................................................................................................................. .7 1 .7 3 .0 1 .0 1 .9 2 .9 1 .0 1 .8 2 .5 1 .1 1 .8 2 .7 2 .9 3 .8 2 .7 3 .5 T o t a l p riv a te ................................................................................................................... 4 .4 3 .4 M i n i n g ....................................................................................................................................... 3 .2 1 .3 C o n s tru c tio n ................................................................................................................... 2 .1 .4 .............................................................................................................. 4 .9 2 .8 N o n a g r ic u lt u r e M a n u f a c t u r in g 4 .9 2 .4 3 .0 3 .8 .4 1 .5 2 .7 .4 1 .5 2 .4 .4 1 .5 2 .6 2 .2 2 .7 3 .2 1 .9 2 .4 2 .7 2 .1 2 .6 3 .0 1 .3 2 .2 3 .2 4 .5 1 .9 2 .8 3 .6 2 .1 3 .0 4 .1 2 .2 1 .4 - 1 .3 4 .4 D u r a b l e ............................................................................................................................. 5 .4 2 .8 1 .3 2 .7 3 .7 5 .1 2 .3 3 .2 4 .0 2 .5 3 .5 4 .6 N o n d u r a b le 4 .3 3 .0 1 .3 1 .4 2 .3 3 .4 1 .3 2 .1 2 .9 1 .4 2 .2 3 .2 ............................................................................................... 5 .2 4 .0 1 .3 3 .4 4 .2 5 .4 2 .9 3 .6 4 .1 3 .2 3 .9 4 .8 .................................................................................................... 3 .8 2 .6 - 2 .3 1 .7 2 .5 3 .5 1 .6 2 .3 2 .9 1 .6 2 .4 3 .2 C o m m u n i c a t i o n s ............................................................................................... 7 .6 7 .4 5 .3 6 .2 7 .0 8 .4 4 .6 5 .3 5 .7 5 .5 6 .2 7 .1 P u b l ic u t i l i t i e s ......................................................................................................... 6 .1 3 .2 1 .6 1 .5 2 .3 3 .4 1 .4 2 .2 2 .8 1 .5 2 .3 3 .1 .............................................................................................................. T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c o m m u n i c a t io n s , a n d p u b lic u tilitie s T r a n s p o r t a t io n Trad e 4 .2 3 .8 3 .3 1 .8 2 .5 3 .5 ................................................................................................................... 5 .3 4 .2 4 .0 1 .6 2 .4 3 .4 1 .4 2 .2 2 .9 1 .5 2 .3 3 .2 .................................................................................................................................. 3 .4 3 .4 2 .7 1 .9 2 .5 3 .6 1 .7 2 .3 2 .9 1 .8 2 .4 3 .3 ............................................................................................................................................ W h o le s a le R e ta il 1 .6 2 .3 2 .9 1 .7 2 .4 3 .2 ........................................ 4 .5 4 .1 2 .9 3 .5 4 .1 5 .3 2 .9 3 .4 4 .0 3 .2 3 .8 4 .7 ............................................................................................................................. 4 .4 4 0 3 .1 3 .8 4 .8 2 .6 3 .2 3 .8 2 .9 3 .5 4 .3 G o v e r n m e n t e n t e r p r i s e s ................................................................................ 3 .7 2 .3 3 .6 .4 2 .0 2 .7 3 .7 1 .8 2 .4 3 .1 1 .9 2 .6 3 .4 R e s t o f w o r ld a n d s ta tis tic a l d i s c r e p a n c y ......................... ( 2) 2 4 .3 2 .8 1 9 .5 2 3 .5 2 2 .7 7 .8 5 .6 8 .8 1 4 .0 1 5 .0 1 6 .2 F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d real e s ta te S e rv ic e s ’ i n c l u d e s p r iv a te h o u s e h o l d s . E s t i m a t e c a n n o t b e c a lc u la te d . 28 Chart 1. Total employment in selected major economic sectors, 1959-84, and projected, 1985-95 puter services industry will also increase, but much less rapidly than jobs in programming and software services. Hardware developments have allowed more on-site pro cessing, and repetitive data processing tasks generally re quire less highly specialized skills than programming and software services. These developments in new hardware and software now permit a firm’s own nontechnical personnel to perform routine processing. The temporary help industry is another business service with potential for rapid growth. Firms have become more successful in using temporary help to meet peak workloads and to weather business cycle swings without having to hire or fire permanent employees. Also, more workers may be willing to work as temporaries in coming years because of the opportunities for flexible scheduling and for part-time employment. Between 1978 and 1983, employment in tem porary help agencies grew a rapid 6.6 percent a year, and in 1984 alone, the job level increased another third. The use of temporaries is expected to increase 5.0 percent a year between 1984 and 1995, faster than the 4.2-percent rate projected for business services as a whole. The management and public relations industry is another omy, but because of saturation and the slowdown in new nonresidential construction, growth is expected to be slower than during the 1970’s and early 1980’s. A component of business services that appears to be far from saturation is computer and data processing services. According to many industry experts, all signs point to con tinued explosive employment growth for this industry. At 8.4 percent a year, it is projected to be the fastest growing of all 378 3-digit3 industries in the economy. Most of the growth within the computer and data pro cessing industry will likely be in programming and software services. The investment boom in high technology products such as computer-assisted manufacturing and robotic pro duction techniques projected to occur over the next decade will require significant increases in new software develop ment, especially in high-level programming languages. Availability of new and cheaper computer hardware will also stimulate demand from small businesses and private consumers for new software, including “packaged” soft ware. As a result, demand for programming services is projected to be very high through the next decade. Employment in the data processing portion of the com 29 category that is projected to grow faster than the average for all business services. Included in this area are firms that manage all the business and financial operations for other organizations (such as doctors’ offices). Also included are consulting services (except engineering, computer, or lab oratory research), public relations services, lobbying, and sales promotion. Consulting services have been increasingly contracted for as rapidly changing technology requires the use of highly skilled specialists. Table 3. Projected changes in employment1for selected industries, 1984-95 B u s in e s s s e r v i c e s .......................................................................................................... 2 ,6 3 3 R e ta il tr a d e , e x c e p t e a tin g a n d d r in k in g p la c e s ............................... 1 ,6 9 1 ................................................................................................ 1 ,2 0 3 E a t i n g a n d d r in k in g p la c e s W h o le s a le tr a d e .................................................................................................................................... 1 ,0 8 8 M e d ic a l s e r v ic e s , n . e . c ................................................................................................................. 1 ,0 6 5 P r o fe s s i o n a l s e r v ic e s , n . e . c .................................................................................................. 1 ,0 4 0 N e w c o n s tr u c ti o n ............................................................................................................................... D o c t o r s ’ a n d d e n t is t s ' s e r v ic e s Professional services. A closely related area, the profes sional services industry, also ranks among the top six in terms of rate of employment growth and number of new jobs added between 1984 and 1995. (See table 3.) Included in this industry are legal services, engineering services, and accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services. (See table 4.) Growth has occurred in this industry for many of the same reasons cited earlier for business services. Increased demand (such as from increased litigation), and contracting out for specialized professional services has led to 4.4percent annual growth in employment and 4.9-percent in crease in output over the 1959-84 period. Growth is pro jected to continue strong through the 1990’s, averaging 3.5 percent for employment and 4.1 percent for output. More than 1 million new jobs are projected to be added by 1995, bringing employment in the professional services sector to 3.3 million. 558 ................................................................................. 540 H o te l s a n d lo d g in g p l a c e s ..................................................................................................... 385 C r e d i t a g e n c ie s a n d fin a n c ia l b r o k e r s 382 ............................................................. Ave ra g e annual ra te o f c h a n g e (p e rc e n t) F a s te s t g ro w in g M e d ic a l s e r v ic e s , n . e . c ................................................................................................................. 4 .3 B u s in e s s s e r v i c e s ............................................................................................................................... 4 .2 C o m p u t e r s a n d p e rip h e ra l e q u i p m e n t ............................................................. 3 .7 ...................................................................................... 3 .7 .......................................................................................................... 3 .5 P r o fe s s i o n a l s e r v ic e s , n . e . c .................................................................................................. 3 .5 M a te ria ls h a n d lin g e q u i p m e n t T r a n s p o r t a t io n s e r v ic e s S c ie n tific a n d c o n tr o llin g i n s t r u m e n t s ............................................................. 2 .9 M e d ic a l in s tr u m e n ts a n d s u p p l i e s ............................................................................ 2 .8 D o c t o r s ’ a n d d e n t is t s ' s e r v ic e s ................................................................................. 2 .6 ............................................................................................................................... 2 .5 P la s tic s p r o d u c t s M o s t ra p id ly d e c lin in g C o tto n Trade. The three trade industries fill out the list of the top four industries in terms of numbers of new jobs to be added between 1984 and 1995. Employment in wholesale and retail trade and in eating and drinking establishments is projected to grow by 4 million, to more than 28 million, by 1995. However, the rate of job growth, at 1.4 percent a year, is just slightly faster than that for the economy as a whole. The real output of eating and drinking places rose rapidly over the past decade as more women entered the labor force and as the large population of young people boosted the popularity of fast-food establishments. Employment in creases in eating and drinking places represented more than 10 percent of all jobs created in the economy between 1969 and 1979, and more than 16 percent of new jobs between 1979 and 1984. Demand for meals away from home is expected to taper in the next decade as the rate of growth of total disposable income slows, although there will still be opportunities for employment gains as an older popu lation shifts its demand toward more labor-intensive “ sitdown” restaurants. Employment in eating and drinking places is projected to rise by 1.2 million, to 6.9 million, by 1995, accounting for only about 7.6 percent of all new jobs. Other retail establishments showing projected iarge job gains include grocery stores and department stores, with each group growing faster than total retail trade employment as a whole. Table 5 shows employment in some of the key E m p lo y m e n t g a in (in th o u s a n d s ) M o s t n e w jo b s .................................................................................................................................................................. Ave ra g e annual ra te o f c h a n g e (p e rc e n t) - 4 .2 W o o d e n c o n t a i n e r s ......................................................................................................................... - 3 .6 L e a t h e r p r o d u c t s in c lu d in g f o o t w e a r .................................................................. - 2 .8 I r o n a n d f e r r o a l lo y o r e s m in in g ................................................................................. - 2 .7 S u g a r ....................................................................................................................................................................... - 2 .7 L e a t h e r ta n n in g a n d fin is h in g ...................................................................................... - 2 .6 R a ilr o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ............................................................................................................... - 2 .6 N o n fe r r o u s m e ta l o r e s m i n i n g , e x c e p t c o p p e r .................................... - 2 .6 D a ir y p r o d u c t s ......................................................................................................................................... - 2 .3 B la s t fu r n a c e s a n d b a s ic ste e l p r o d u c t s ........................................................ - 2 .2 ’ I n c lu d e s w a g e a n d s a la r y j o b s , th e s e l f- e m p l o y e d , a n d u n p a id f a m i ly w o r k e r s . n . e .c . = n o t e ls e w h e r e c la s s ifie d . types of wholesale and retail establishments. Miscellaneous shopping goods stores (such as those selling jewelry, books, cameras, and sporting goods) are projected to grow quite a bit faster than the average for all retail stores. Gasoline service stations, on the other hand, are expected to have virtually no increase in jobs. Retail trade components pro jected to show absolute employment declines include variety stores, miscellaneous general merchandise stores, motor cycle dealers, fuel and ice dealers, household appliance stores, and furriers and fur shops. Many of the items for merly carried exclusively by these establishments now are being sold in department stores or in other types of retail stores. Part of the anticipated rise in retail employment can be attributed to an increasing number of part-time jobs. In 1984, the workweek averaged 32.8 hours in retail stores and only 27.1 hours in eating and drinking places, compared to an average of more than 40 hours in manufacturing. The projections show the trend toward more part-time employ ment continuing: weekly hours in 1995 average 31.7 in retail trade stores and 26.2 in eating and drinking establishments. In wholesale trade, which is projected to add more than 30 than some other types of health care establishments. Cost-containment measures are expected to restrict the expansion of the health care industries over the next decade, despite increased demand generated by an aging population and by advances in medical technology. Hospital employ ment is projected to grow only 0.7 percent a year through 1995; doctors’ and dentists’ services, by 2.6 percent; and other medical services, by 4.3 percent. All rates are con siderably slower than historical trends, although other med ical services still ranks number one among all the industries in the economy in terms of projected growth. New health care jobs number 1.9 million over the next 11 years in the b l s projections, about 1 out of every 9 new jobs. 1 million jobs, a large part of the gain will be among ma chinery and equipment wholesalers. This reflects both the initial large size of this industry and increased sales of du rable investment goods related to new capital spending. Other wholesalers projected to enjoy rapid employment growth are suppliers of sporting goods, paper and paper products, metals and minerals, and motor vehicles and auto equip ment. Health care. Medical care industries have been very im portant in contributing to employment growth in the past. Jobs in doctors’ and dentists' offices rose by more than 1 million between 1959 and 1984. Hospitals added more than 2 million new jobs, while other medical services (such as nursing homes, outpatient facilities, and rehabilitation cen ters) increased employment by 1.5 million. In terms of rates of job growth, other medical serv ices was first among the three health care industries, and. in fact, led all other in dustries in the economy between 1959 and 1984. While total private employment over this period was increasing at an annual pace of 1.7 percent, other medical services posted a 7.3-percent growth rate, hospitals, 4.6 percent, and doc tors’ and dentists’ offices, 3.8 percent. Employment in all health care sectors combined accounted for almost 1 out of every 9 new jobs added to the economy between 1959 and 1984, and almost 1 out of every 5 over the 1979-84 period. The value of output in health care has also risen dra matically. Despite price increases that have been much higher than the average for the economy as a whole, the real value of output of hospitals averaged a 6.4-percent annual gain for the 1959-84 period, compared to 3.0 for g n p . The real value of other medical services expanded by 6.6 percent a year, and output in doctors’ and dentists’ offices posted a 4.6-percent annual gain. By 1984, health care expenditures in real terms were about 6 percent of g n p (10 percent in current dollar terms). In the last few years, however, new cost-containment measures, especially for hospitals, have altered this expan sionary trend. The Federal Government has imposed strict limits on hospital reimbursements made under medicare, and private insurers are following the lead with other cost saving restrictions. According to the American Hospital As sociation, the average length of stay in a community hospital dropped from 7.2 days in 1980 to a record low of 6.7 days in 1984. Hospital employment actually decreased in 1984, the only such occurrence since estimates for the industry were first published in 1958. Part of the cutback in hospital care is being taken up by doctors’ offices and other medical facilities, such as nursing homes, emergency treatment centers, and home health ser vices. This is possible, in part, because some procedures that used to require a hospital stay can now be performed in alternative settings. The shift has been encouraged by public and private health insurers because hospitals are gen erally more capital-intensive and have higher overhead costs Outlook for other service-producing industries Noncommercial sector. Another large employment indus try is the noncommercial (or nonprofit) sector. Included in this industry are social services (such as nonprofit counseling centers, disaster relief, or the Salvation Army), community action agencies, fund-raising organizations, senior citizens’ associations, museums, and membership organizations (such as labor unions or business, political, or religious groups). Employment in these noncommercial and membership or ganizations—2.2 million in 1984—is projected to grow to 2.5 million by 1995, or at a pace just about in line with the average for the economy as a whole. /Amusements. A field projected to grow almost twice as fast as the economy as a whole is amusement and recreation services. This industry is expected to continue to enjoy the effects of increased spending on leisure-time activities and the current popularity of health and fitness clubs. Personal consumption expenditures on amusement and recreation ser vices are projected to grow by 4.5 percent a year between 1984 and 1995, compared to 2.8 percent for all consumer spending. Employment is projected to rise from 869,000 in 1984 to more than 1.1 million by 1995. The demand for banking and credit services is expected to be very high over the next 10 years. Deregulation in the industry, the projected capital spending boom, and the introduction of many new services will spur demand. It is also assumed that problems related to the recent uneven performance of several large U.S. banks due to heavy debt losses and to the uncertainty surrounding the huge loan balances of developing countries will be resolved. Industry losses in 1984 were linked primarily to those bank customers whose asset values fell because of the slower inflation rate, such as energy investors, real estate devel opers, home buyers, and farmers. Despite high demand for financial services, employment in banking and credit agencies is projected to rise at a much slower pace than in the past. Jobs in banking and credit agencies combined expanded by more than 4 percent a year over the 1959-84 period, and for credit agencies alone, that F in a n c ia l s e r v ic e s . b l s 31 rate accelerated to 6.6 percent during the most recent 4-year span. Future job gains will be limited by consolidation of financial services and by advances in automatic banking. A total of 569,000 jobs are projected to be added in the two financial industries. Employment in the insurance industry is also not expected to keep up with historical rates of growth. This industry, too, is becoming more concentrated and more automated. Functions once performed only by underwriters can now be computerized, cutting paperflow and allowing clerical per sonnel to prepare rate quotes. Industry job gains are pro jected to average 1.5 percent a year between 1984 and 1995, compared with 2.0 percent between 1959 and 1984. Table 5. Employment in selected trade industries, 1979-95 [In thousands] T o t a l , all i n d u s tr i e s 1 1 0 6 ,8 4 1 . . . . 1 9 8 3 -8 4 4 .2 1 .3 ............................................. 4 ,6 1 2 7 .1 1 3 .5 4 .2 W a g e a n d s a la r y j o b s .............................. 4 ,0 5 9 6 .2 1 3 .5 4 .3 B u s in e s s s e r v ic e s 1 80 - .8 6 .0 1 .6 1 3 .4 4 .1 16 6 6 .9 609 4 .0 8 .9 4 .0 P e r s o n n e l s u p p l y s e r v ic e s 828 6 .8 3 0 .5 4 .7 s te n o g ra p h ic .................................... . . . 16 0 6 .2 2 2 .2 3 .8 .............................. 631 6 .6 3 3 .7 5 .0 37 1 2 .2 1 7 .8 4 .3 E m p l o y m e n t a g e n c ie s T e m p o r a r y h e lp . . P e r s o n n e l s u p p l y , n . e .c . C o m p u t e r a n d d a ta p r o c e s s in g s e r v ic e s . 4 74 1 2 .7 1 3 .9 8 .4 P r o g r a m m in g a n d s o ftw a re 16 3 2 0 .3 1 8 .5 1 0 .6 D a ta p r o c e s s in g 232 7 .8 8 .4 5 .5 78 2 0 .3 2 2 .3 1 0 .6 1 ,7 2 8 5 .4 1 1 .3 3 .3 . . . . .............................. ............................................................ la b s ............................................................ 19 3 3 .9 9 .8 2 .0 458 8 .0 1 3 .6 4 .8 394 5 .0 8 .8 2 .8 D e t e c t iv e a n d p r o te c tiv e s e r v i c e s ............................................. E q u i p m e n t re n ta l a n d le a s in g .................................................. P h o t o f i n is h in g la b s .................... 15 8 6 .5 1 5 .6 3 .0 78 3 .8 9 1 .5 3 .3 M is c e lla n e o u s b u s in e s s s e r 447 4 .9 12 3 ................................... 2 ,2 9 5 4 .8 7 .1 W a g e a n d s a la r y j o b s ............................... 1 ,6 9 7 5 .3 8 .4 4 .1 650 7 .1 7 .9 4 .4 635 3 .8 1 0 .4 3 .8 389 5 .8 64 3 .9 v ic e s , n . e . c ...................................... P r o f e s s i o n a l s e r v ic e s 1 L e g a l s e r v ic e s ............................................. 3 .5 E n g in e e r i n g a n d a rc h ite c tu r a l s e r v ic e s ....................................................... A c c o u n t i n g , a u d it i n g , a n d b o o k k e e p in g ........................................ 6 ,9 8 5 1 ,0 8 8 W a g e a n d s a la r y j o b s ................................................... 1 ,2 0 4 5 ,5 5 0 6 ,5 7 8 1 ,0 2 8 M a c h in e r y , e q u i p m e n t , a n d s u p p lie s 1 ,2 6 1 1 ,3 9 3 1 ,8 0 3 4 10 1 5 ,9 1 9 _ G r o c e r i e s a n d re la te d p r o d u c t s .................... 648 710 806 E le c tr ic a l g o o d s .................................................................. 405 477 5 70 93 M o t o r v e h ic le s a n d a u to e q u i p m e n t . . 439 424 509 85 96 ........................................................................................... 1 1 ,9 5 3 1 2 ,6 6 0 1 4 ,3 5 1 1 ,6 9 1 W a g e a n d s a la r y j o b s ................................................... 1 0 ,5 1 7 1 1 ,2 3 6 1 2 ,8 9 0 1 ,6 5 4 ....................................................................... 2 ,0 0 2 2 ,3 1 8 2 ,8 1 7 499 D e p a r t m e n t s t o r e s ............................................................. 1 ,8 7 8 1 ,9 2 5 2 ,3 6 6 441 N e w a n d u s e d c a r d e a l e r s .................................... 881 844 904 60 M is c e lla n e o u s s h o p p i n g g o o d s s t o re s 569 690 871 18 1 5 77 581 582 1 ......................... 489 530 592 62 E a t i n g a n d d r in k in g p la c e s 1 .................................... 4 ,8 5 7 5 ,7 3 3 6 ,9 3 6 1 ,2 0 3 .................................... Communications services. Under the assumptions used in the bls projections, the communications sector will enjoy the highest rates of growth in output of all the major sectors in the economy. (See table 2.) The demand for telecom munications services for data transmittal or other functions is expected to continue to show tremendous growth. The breakup of at&t is also anticipated to lead to output growth by stimulating competition. The value of communi cations services is projected to expand by 6.2 percent a year, 1984-95. As in past years, most of the increases in new telecom munications services will not require much additional em ployment. After remaining relatively constant at about 1 million to 1.2 million jobs for many years, employment in communications (except broadcasting) is projected to rise a bit to 1.3 million by 1995. Most of the increase will be limited to local cable television service operations, which are expected to grow as cable tv expands to new markets. The number of telephone workers is not projected to in crease. M a n a g e m e n t a n d p u b lic ............................................. 5 ,8 9 7 truckers rather than wage and salary workers. Air trans portation employment is projected to have a much slower rate of growth than in the past, as a shakeout in the industry continues. On the other hand, the transportation services industry (mostly travel agencies) will be one of the top 10 employment growth sectors. The business of making travel arrangements is increasingly being shifted from the airlines to independent travel agents, in response to the complexity of the new rates and conditions of purchase arising from increased airline competition. R e s e a r c h a n d d e v e lo p m e n t re la tio n s 5 ,5 0 1 i n c l u d e s w a g e a n d s a la r y j o b s , th e s e l f- e m p l o y e d , a n d u n p a id f a m i ly w o r k e r s . M is c e lla n e o u s b u s in e s s s e r v ic e s 1 2 2 ,7 6 0 .................................................................. D r u g a n d p r o p r ie ta r y s t o r e s C o m p u te r - r e l a t e d s e r v ic e s , n . e . c ............................................................ 1 0 6 ,8 4 1 G a s o lin e s e r v ic e s t a tio n s M a il in g , r e p r o d u c t io n , a n d S e r v i c e s to b u i l d i n g s ......................... 1 0 1 ,4 7 1 G r o c e r y s t o re s C r e d i t r e p o r tin g a n d c o l l e c t i o n ................................................... ............................... p la c e s 1 P r o je c te d , 19 8 4 -9 5 0 .8 In c re a s e , 19 8 4 -9 5 R e ta il tr a d e e x c e p t e a tin g a n d d r in k in g A v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te o f g ro w th 19 7 8 -8 3 P r o je c te d , 19 9 5 W h o le s a le tr a d e 1 Table 4. Employment growth in selected business and professional services, 1978-95 198 4 e m p lo y m e n t (In th o u s a n d s ) 198 4 T o t a l , all i n d u s tr i e s 1 Distribution services. Deregulation has also had, and will continue to have, a big impact in some of the transportation industries, in particular trucking and airlines. The output of the trucking industry is expected to grow along with the expanding economy. Employment will also increase in line with past trends, but more of it will consist of self-employed In d u s try 19 79 In d u s try i n c l u d e s w a g e a n d s a la r y j o b s , th e s e l f- e m p lo y e d , a n d u n p a id fa m i ly w o r k e r s . n .e .c . = So u r c e : Manufacturing: strong demand but little job gain n o t e ls e w h e r e c la s s ifie d . for not p u b lis h e d b e fo r e 1 9 8 2 , th e H is to r ic a l w a g e a n d s a la r y d a t a a re b a s e d o n b ls e s t a b lis h m e n t s u r v e y : in d u s tr ie s f o r w h ic h e s t a b lis h m e n t s u r v e y d a ta w e r e As mentioned earlier, a capital spending boom, continued strong growth in real defense expenditures, and a rise in 1 9 7 8 - 8 3 ra te s a r e b a s e d o n u n e m p lo y m e n t in s u r a n c e d a t a . 32 worker; emphasis on nonproductive types of investment, such as for pollution control; and the oil price shocks, which diverted investment funds from production to energy con servation. Over the coming decade, many of these problems are expected to abate. Productivity began a turnaround in 1983 and 1984 pri marily as a result of the upswing in the business cycle, but this upturn is expected to be the start of a long-range advance in output per worker hour. Projections of large growth in investment expenditures on productive equipment, a more experienced labor force, and stable prices (including oil prices), contribute to the optimistic outlook for productivity. Gains are projected to average 1.7 percent annually through 1995. Much of the productivity improvement will be centered in manufacturing. Manufacturing establishments are ex pected to take advantage of many new technologies as they expand facilities or replace aging capital stock. The new technologies include computer-assisted design, engineering, and manufacture; numeric control and computer-process control; industrial robots for many types of production op erations, such as material handling, welding, spray painting, and parts assembly; lasers for printing, communications, metal fastening or cutting, and other functions; and nu merous other changes specific to particular industries.4 Many of these new technologies are available now, but their use will be considerably more widespread in the next decade. The rate of technology diffusion within a particular man ufacturing industry will depend on a number of factors: the size of firms, the industry concentration ratio, the cost struc ture of the industry, and the potential market for its product. New technologies improve product quality and are often labor-saving, permitting output to grow without a corre sponding increase in employment. Thus, while the value of output of the manufacturing sector is projected to grow by 3.0 percent a year from 1984 to 1995, employment is pro jected to rise only 0.6 percent annually. Because this rate of job increase is slower than that for the total economy, manufacturing employment is projected to decline as a pro portion of all jobs from 18.5 percent in 1984 to 17.2 percent in 1995. The decline in the manufacturing share of employment is most severe in nondurable goods industries, which for the most part do not supply any of the capital equipment or defense goods that will account for much of the growth in demand for manufacturing output. In fact, the projected slight drop in the all-manufacturing share of private gnp between 1984 and 1995 results from a decrease in the non durable share. Nondurable goods are more heavily depen dent on consumer purchases, which are expected to grow only modestly. Expenditures for food and clothing are ex pected to increase only in line with population growth, about 1.8 percent a year. Employment in nondurable manufac turing is actually projected to show an absolute decline, from 8.0 million jobs in 1984 to 7.9 million in 1995. Of exports of capital goods are expected to take place during the projection period, and this spending will provide a large boost to the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing output is projected to grow 3.0 percent a year from 1984 to 1995, compared to 2.9 percent for total gnp. An investment boom is projected because of expected lower real interest rates; the prospect of a stable, noninflationary economy; and the desire on the part of manufacturers to take advantage of new technologies, purchases of which were postponed during the low-investment recession years 1980-82. Expenditures for producers’ durable equipment under these assumptions are projected to rise much faster than total gnp through 1995—3.8 percent compared to 2.9 percent. Augmenting the demand for capital investment goods will be greater expenditures for defense and for exports. Real defense purchases of goods and services are projected to show 5.3-percent annual growth between 1984 and 1990, and then taper off. This spending will have a large impact on the aircraft and guided missiles, ordnance, shipbuilding and repair, and communications equipment industries. Ex ports are also expected to increase much faster than gnp, and will be highly concentrated on high technology goods such as computers, electronic components, and communi cations equipment. Somewhat offsetting this high demand for capital goods, however, is a parallel rise in imports. Durable goods imports have made sizable inroads in the domestic market in recent years, especially in electronic components, office equip ment, machine tools, and other types of machinery and electrical equipment. The strength of the dollar against for eign currencies and slower economic growth in foreign mar kets made the United States an especially attractive magnet for imports in 1984, during which the Nation’s merchandise trade deficit hit a record $123 billion (in current dollars). Market shares accounted for by imports are projected to continue to rise for almost all durable manufacturing in dustries, but overall demand for capital goods is expected to be high enough for domestic production to expand as well. The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken after 1985, tending to curb the import merchandise boom. Total imports in real terms are projected to grow 4.0 percent a year be tween 1984 and 1995, while exports are expected to enjoy a 5.6-percent yearly gain. The increased investment in capital equipment leads to the projection of a reversal in a long-term trend for pro ductivity. As has been well documented, growth in output per worker hour slowed dramatically in this country during the 1970’s. From the 2.1-percent annual increase posted between 1968 and 1973, productivity gains fell to 0.8 per cent a year from 1973 to 1979, and then to 0.5 percent a year between 1979 and 1982. Although many of the reasons for the slowdown are still unknown, several causes have been cited, such as the influx of new, inexperienced workers to the labor force; a slowing in capital accumulation per 33 36 nondurable goods industries covered in these projections, 27 are projected to lose jobs. Durable goods manufacturing industries have a somewhat better job outlook, with total employment rising from 11.7 million in 1984 to 13.2 million in 1995. Production of durable goods remains unchanged at 15.6 percent of private g n p over the projections period. Those durable goods in dustries that produce the new, advanced capital equipment expected to be in great demand will be especially favored, and several of the machinery, electrical equipment, and instruments industries are projected to show strong output and employment growth. Computers and electronic components. Among the ex panding durable goods industries, computer manufacturing ranks first. As in the last few decades, the domestic com puter industry is projected to show phenomenal output gains despite rising competition from imports. This industry and the electronic components industry were the output growth leaders over the 1959-84 period, and their position will remain unchallenged through the projections span. In the b l s projections, computer production grows 8.4 percent a year, and electronic components, 7.5 percent, compared to only 2.9 percent annually for g n p . These rates of output growth occur despite rising competition from foreign man ufacturers. Demand for these products is expected to be so high that it will absorb increases in both imports and do mestic production. Imports of computers are projected to grow almost 12 percent annually from 1984 to 1995, raising their share of total output (domestic production plus imports) from 15.5 percent to 20.4 percent. Foreign producers will also be competing with U.S. firms for overseas markets, but U.S. exports of computer equipment are still projected to rise by 10.5 percent a year, 1984-95. As a result, the industry will continue to have a positive net trade balance. For electronic components, the picture is somewhat dif ferent in that imports are projected to exceed exports by 1995. Domestic production will remain strong, however, due to the increasing ubiquity of the computer chip, soon to be found in even the most mundane of machines and consumer products. The computer and electronic components industries have typically enjoyed very high rates of productivity growth. Quality advances have occurred even as unit costs declined, and this trend is projected to hold through the nineties. Employment is projected to expand from 479,000 in 1984 to 713,000 in 1995 in computer production and for electronic components, from 673,000 to 846,000. Thus, despite very rapid expansion of output, only 234,000 new jobs will be added in the manufacture of computer hardware and only 173,000 in electronic components manufacture; together, these increases are equivalent to less than two-thirds of the gains projected for computer and data processing services. 34 Communications equipment. Production of communica tions equipment is projected to get a big boost from several key demand areas. One is the market for telecommunica tions linkups to transmit computer data, which is far from sated. Another is defense expenditures, a large part of which go for communications equipment. The expansion of the cable television industry will also contribute to demand for communications equipment. In addition, export gains are expected as world demand for sophisticated U.S. equipment grows. Output of telephone and telegraph apparatus (including cellular phones and carrier equipment) is projected to grow 6.0 percent a year between 1984 and 1995, and that of radio and communication equipment (such as broadcasting equip ment, satellites, radar, traffic control systems, and sonar and laser systems), by 5.0 percent. Job gains will be con siderably smaller owing to productivity growth, but at 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, they are greater than the all-industries average of 1.3 percent and considerably above the 0.6 percent projected for manufacturing industries as a whole. Autos. The introduction of new technologies is expected to have a significant impact in the auto industry. New plants are expected to incorporate the most up-to-date processing techniques available, turning out more cars with fewer work ers. Plans have already been announced for several new operations, including g m ’ s Saturn Project, which will rely heavily on computer-assisted design and manufacturing and on robotic production methods. Thus, while domestic output in the auto industry is expected to grow, employment in 1995 is projected to be lower than at present. The industry was hit especially hard by the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions. As high interest rates, unemployment, and prices kept many buyers away from dealer showrooms, production fell an average of 13.8 percent annually between 1979 and 1982. Employment dropped 10.9 percent a year; from a high of 1 million jobs in 1978, the number of jobs fell by 300,000, to a 20-year low of 701,000 in 1982. In contrast, 184,000 jobs were cut back during the 1974-75 recession. The industry’s recovery began in 1983 and picked up momentum in 1984. The 1984 value of production of cars, trucks, and vans was 50 percent higher than 1982’s trough, and employment was back up to 863,000. After recovery from the cyclical downturn, however, long term secular trends are projected to dampen the industry’s expansion. Demographic changes curbing the numbers of first-time buyers have reduced the potential market for new cars, and high sticker prices discourage frequent replace ment. At the same time, the system of voluntary quotas on auto imports from Japan is being relaxed. These factors are projected to limit domestic output growth to 1.7 percent a year from 1984 to 1995, compared to prerecession gains in the 3- to 5-percent range. Imports, which represented 13.5 percent of the real value of total production in 1977, and as the strength of the dollar, large international wage dif ferentials, and the lag in introducing new technologies such as continuous casting, domestic steel could not compete with cheaper-priced substitutes or foreign imports. The steady substitution of lighter-weight materials in transportation and other equipment accelerated as energy prices rose in the wake of the 1973-74 oil crisis. Even where steel continues to be used, it is often rolled thinner. By 1984, imports of steel had captured 18.7 percent of the total U.S. market, compared to 12.7 percent in 1977. By 1995, imports are projected to represent 32 percent of the total value of steel used in this country. Domestic production is anticipated to be only a little above 1984’s level. Whatever small gains are made in production will be achieved through rising productivity. In the b l s projections, steel employment drops from 335,000 in 1984 to only 261,000 in 1995. 23.4 percent in 1984, are projected to account for 28.2 percent of the market by 1995. Given that all of the projected increases in domestic output will be accomplished with pro ductivity gains, industry employment is projected to fall to 828,000 in 1995. Machinery and other capital equipment. In the moderategrowth set of projections, many machinery and electrical equipment producers are expected to enjoy very healthy output gains over the next decade as a result of the invest ment boom. The material handling equipment industry, for example, is projected to experience output growth of 5.5 percent a year. This is the industry that supplies robotic handling equipment for moving goods within plants and factories, including hoists, cranes, and conveyors. Em ployment is projected to rise 3.7 percent a year, placing the industry among the top five fastest job gainers. (The level of employment remains very small, however. Total jobs are expected to rise from 80,000 to 119.000.) Other durable goods industries expected to benefit from the investment and defense upswing include guided missiles and space vehicles, scientific and controlling instruments, medical and dental instruments and supplies, optical and ophthalmic equipment, electric transmission equipment, and miscellaneous electrical machinery (which includes elec tromedical equipment). All of these industries have pro jected output growth rates of over 4.0 percent, compared to 2.9 percent for the economy as a whole. The high level of investment spending will also help several industries that are still struggling out of a recession slump. The industry manufacturing construction, mining, and oilfield machinery picked up production and jobs in 1984, but full recovery is not yet complete. Output and employment are projected to post 3.4-percent and 1.8-percent rates of gain through 1995, but the industry’s 1995 employment level is still far short of the 1981 peak. Another industry for which recovery has been slow is that producing farm and garden machinery. In recent years, low prices for farm commodities, changes in Federal support programs, and reduced foreign demand have seriously crimped the U.S. agricultural sector, forcing many farmers into fore closures and bankruptcies. In the long run, however, re covery in the agricultural sector is anticipated, and the Nation’s farm machinery producers should benefit from an improving world economy and from the favorable economic conditions projected to stimulate investment spending on all types of capital goods. Despite this projected upturn, though, both production and jobs in farm machinery are not expected to return to their prerecession levels by 1995. Nondurable goods. As noted, many nondurable manufac turing industries are projected to lose jobs over the next decade. Limited demand growth coupled with improved production methods will contribute to this development. Job losses occur in all of the 10 food processing industries included in the b l s projections. Employment is projected to decline from 1.6 million jobs in 1984 to fewer than 1.5 million in 1995. Some output gains will be registered, par ticularly for grain mill products, soft drinks, confectionery products, alcoholic beverages, and canned and frozen foods. In apparel and other textile products, imports are expected to inhibit domestic production growth. Clothing imports are projected to rise to about 38 percent of the total market in 1995. The use of the computer in pattern grading and marker preparation, laser cutting of fabrics, and numerically con trolled cutting and sewing machines are some of the new technologies projected to be more widespread in the 1990’s. Employment in apparel manufacturing is projected to be 818,000 in 1995, compared to 1.023 million in 1984. The chemical products industry is not expected to enjoy the rapid output growth characteristic of this industry during the sixties and early seventies. During that time span, pro duction expanded in the 5- to 7-percent range, but after oil prices started to rise dramatically, the United States began to lose its competitive edge in producing chemicals. Annual output growth slowed to 2.8 percent between 1973 and 1979, and, as was the case for many other industries, pro duction actually fell during the recession. Output picked up in 1984 and is projected to grow by 2.8 percent a year through 1995, but productivity gains will check increases in employment. The only exceptions to the job-loss trend in nondurable industries will be printing and publishing, drugs, and mis cellaneous plastics products. Projected job growth in these industries, however, represents a slowdown from past trends. In printing and publishing, output growth offsets the mod Steel. The steel industry lost more than one-third of its jobs in the 1980-82 recessionary period, and regained vir tually none of them in 1984. The decline in the steel industry actually began long before 1980. Because of such factors 35 est increases expected in productivity. Electronic compo sition, already prevalent in the production of big-city daily newspapers, is expected to become widely used by many smaller publications as well. Employment in newspapers, books, and other printing and publishing is projected to rise from 1.5 million in 1984 to 1.8 million by 1995, but the average rate of gain of 1.6 percent compares unfavorably to the 1.8 percent posted for 1959-84. The drug industry is projected to show very rapid output growth—4.5 percent a year—between 1984 and 1995. A high rate of new product introductions and the growing number of elderly in the population will stimulate produc tion. The industry has typically enjoyed strong productivity growth, however, and this is expected to continue. Em ployment increases are projected to average 1.6 percent a year through 1995, compared to 2.7 percent over the past 25 years. In plastics products, historically a high-growth, low-pro ductivity industry, output advances an average 4.3 percent a year and employment, 2.5 percent, over the projections period. Productivity improvements are limited in this in dustry due to the small size and specialized operations of its many firms and to the diversity of items produced. will be 3.2 percent, reflecting the addition of 0.7 million new jobs. Government . Very little growth is expected in total government em ployment within the next 15 years. Most of the increased defense expenditures projected for the rest of this decade will be for materiel purchases and not for civilian personnel. Nondefense expenditures in real terms are projected to grow only very slowly, and employment is projected to remain at 1984’s level. In State and local governments, a 1.2 million job gain is projected, bringing employment to 14.3 million in 1995. The projected upturn, which follows several years of em ployment cutbacks, primarily reflects an increase in the el ementary school age population. Many more women have recently entered the prime childbearing ages, and while birth rates are not increasing, the total number of births is. This “echo effect” of the postwar baby boom is beginning to stimulate demand for elementary schoolteachers, most of whom are in the public sector. Employment in public ed ucation is projected to rise from 6.7 million in 1984 to 7.2 million in 1995, accounting for about 3 out of every 7 new jobs in State and local governments. High tech. High technology is often touted as the source of new employment opportunities to help replace jobs lost in declining “ smokestack” industries. While faster-growing than the average for all sectors, and particularly the man ufacturing sector, high tech industries are projected to ac count for only a small proportion of new jobs through 1995. The Bureau’s definition of a high technology industry rests on the level of research and development expenditures, the ratio of scientific and technical personnel to total em ployment, and product sophistication, developed three definitions of high tech, ranging from very broad to very narrow, in its first look at this subject.5 New employment projections for industries meeting the tests for the inter mediate definition are shown in table 6. Employment in these high technology industries ac counted for 6.1 percent of all wage and salary jobs in 1972, 6.4 percent in 1984, and is projected to represent 7.0 percent by 1995. About 1.7 million, or almost 11 percent, of the 15.9 million total new jobs added between 1984 and 1995 will be in those high technology industries. As can be seen in table 6, 40 percent of the new high tech jobs will be in computer and data processing services. Under the very broadest definition, which includes some mining, communications, trade, and professional services industries as well as additional manufacturing sectors, high tech will account for 14.6 percent of all jobs in 1995, an increase of 3.2 million from 1984’s level. Under the nar rowest definition, which is limited to drugs, computers, communications equipment, electronic components, and aircraft and guided missiles, the high tech share in 1995 b l s 36 Table 6. Wage and salary employment In high technology industries,1 1972-95 [In thousands) S IC 2 In d u s t r y 198 4 T o t a l n o n f a r m w a g e a n d s a l a r y .......................... 7 3 ,6 7 5 9 4 ,4 6 1 1 1 0 ,0 9 2 H ig h t e c h n o l o g y ........................................................................................... 4 ,4 6 9 6 ,0 2 4 7 ,7 3 0 6 .1 6 .4 7 .0 .................................... 14 1 143 15 2 P e r c e n t o f to ta l 281 P ro ja c te d , 19 72 ............................................................................ I n d u s t r ia l in o r g a n ic c h e m ic a ls 19 9 5 282 P la s tic m a te r ia ls a n d s y n t h e t ic s .............................. 229 177 16 1 283 D r u g s .................................................................................................................... 15 9 206 243 284 285 C le a n e r s a n d to ile t p r e p a r a t io n s ............................... P a in t s a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s ................................................... 122 69 145 62 16 0 57 286 In d u s tr ia l o r g a n i c c h e m ic a ls 14 3 16 4 16 5 ........................................ 287 A g r i c u ltu r a l c h e m ic a ls ............................................................. 56 289 M is c e lla n e o u s c h e m ic a l p r o d u c t s ......................... P e t r o le u m r e f i n i n g ............................................................................ 90 92 90 291 15 1 15 1 142 348 O r d n a n c e a n d a c c e s s o r i e s ................................................... 82 76 36 115 115 124 177 16 8 19 7 260 526 351 E n g in e s a n d t u r b i n e s 355 S p e c ia l in d u s t r y m a c h i n e r y .................................................................. .............................................. 61 61 357 O f f i c e , c o m p u t i n g , a n d a c c o u n tin g 361 E le c tr ic tr a n s m i s s io n e q u i p m e n t ............................... 12 8 116 13 1 362 E le c tr ic a l in d u s tr ia l a p p a r a t u s ........................................ 209 206 241 m a c h i n e s ..................................................................................................... 365 R a d i o a n d te le v is io n r e c e iv in g e q u i p m e n t 366 C o m m u n i c a t io n e q u i p m e n t 367 E le c tr o n i c c o m p o n e n t s a n d a c c e s s o rie s 369 M is c e lla n e o u s e le c tric a l m a c h i n e r y a n d 3 72 A ir c r a ft a n d p a r ts . ............................................. .. s u p p l i e s .......................................................................................................... ............................................................................ 14 0 91 75 6 85 458 6 17 78 7 355 6 73 846 13 2 15 6 18 6 495 596 6 70 196 3 76 G u i d e d m is s ile s a n d s p a c e v e h i c l e s .................... 93 15 5 381 E n g in e e r i n g a n d la b o r a t o r y in s tr u m e n ts . . 65 80 92 382 M e a s u r i n g a n d c o n tr o l lin g in s tr u m e n ts . . . 16 0 250 3 10 383 O p tic a l in s t r u m e n t s a n d l e n s e s .................................... 18 35 34 384 M e d ic a l a n d d e n ta l in s tr u m e n ts a n d 234 s u p p l i e s .......................................................................................................... 91 172 386 P h o t o g r a p h ic e q u i p m e n t a n d s u p p lie s 117 124 13 5 73 7 C o m p u t e r a n d d a ta p r o c e s s in g s e r v ic e s . . 10 7 4 74 1 ,1 4 9 73 9 1 R e s e a r c h a n d d e v e lo p m e n t la b o r a t o rie s .. 111 19 3 240 . . . ’ See text footnote 5. S t a n d a r d in d u s tr ia l c la s s ific a tio n a s d e fin e d b y th e U . S . O f fi c e o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t th r o u g h 1 9 7 2 . largest percentage errors tend to occur in the smallest in dustries, however. When the industry errors are weighted by employment, the average absolute error for each industry declines to about 8 to 12.5 percent. In addition, while actual growth rates for the 149 industries will vary widely, pro jected growth rates usually fall within a much narrower band. The very fastest rates of growth or the very fastest rates of decline are usually underestimated. To help address the fact that 10- to 15-year projections obviously entail uncertainty, bls prepares alternatives to its baseline, or moderate-growth, projection. The alternatives developed for this set of projections include a high-growth case (with a larger labor force, lower unemployment, and greater gnp), and a low-growth case (with the opposite characteristics). Under low-growth assumptions, total employment only reaches 117.3 million by 1995, compared to 122.8 million in the baseline projection. Because the lower employment level is reflected across all industries, the distribution of employment among the major sectors remains about the same. The only difference in the distribution is that gov ernment accounts for a larger share, because Federal em ployment is assumed to be the same in all three scenarios and State and local government employment is only slightly lower than in the base case. (See table 1 for employment estimates for all three scenarios by major industrial sector, and table 7 for detailed industry projections.) In the high-trend version, total employment stands at 127.7 million in 1995, 5 million more than the base case. Again, the distribution of employment among the major sectors resembles that of the baseline scenario. Employment in private education, on the other hand, is not expected to rise until after 1995, when today’s larger birth cohorts begin to reach college age. Most of private school employment is concentrated in colleges and univer sities. Because of the 1970’s “baby bust,’’ enrollment in these institutions in 1995 is projected to reach its lowest level since 1968. It should be noted that the rise in public school employ ment reflects only enrollment gains and a slight improve ment in teacher-student ratios. If many States approve new graduation requirements, longer schooldays or schoolyears, and more rigorous academic standards, additional staff may be needed. Employment in public hospitals is projected to remain almost level over the next decade at 1.1 million, as hospital cost-containment programs and a shift to private hospitals limit job growth in this part of State and local government operations. Jobs in other functions of State and local gov ernments such as police, firefighting, sanitation, welfare, and administration are expected to rise modestly from 5.4 million in 1984 to 6.1 million in 1995. Declines in Federal grants-in-aid to States and localities and fiscal conservatism in general will keep the rate of job growth much lower than in the sixties and seventies. Construction The construction industry is projected to benefit from the expected growth in capital investment, particularly after 1990. Nonresidential construction is projected to recover from the recent oversupply of commercial office buildings, and to grow as factory modernization accelerates. In the bls projections, business expenditures on construction in crease by 1.6 percent annually through 1990, and 2.6 per cent a year, 1990-95. Residential construction shows the opposite pattern. The growth rate projected for the years 1984-90 is 2.4 percent, but only 1.8 percent, 1990-95. The initial expansion results as interest rates drop slowly and the industry continues to recover from the slump in new residential construction dur ing the 1980-82 recession years. After 1990, demographic effects such as a slowdown in the rate of new household formation and a drop in the population of potential first time homeowners begin to slow the rate of new home con struction again. Productivity is projected to accelerate in the construction industry as the prefabrication of modular buildings and other new construction techniques become more widespread. Em ployment in construction is projected to rise from 5.9 million to over 6.6 million by 1995. The rate of job growth is somewhat slower than past trends. Differences from previous projections In 1983, bls published its first estimates of economic growth and employment through 1995.7 The new projected employment level is lower than the previous projection for two main reasons: the new projection of the 1995 labor force is lower because of a slowdown in the rate of increase in women’s labor force participation that started in 1978 and continued through 1984; and there was a downward revision in the exogenously determined adjustment factor which converts household employment (number of persons working) to establishment employment (number of jobs).8 At the industry level, the new output and employment trends differ from previous estimates in a variety of ways: • The last projections for 1995 used 1982, a recession year, as the latest historical reference point. Many industries were expected to show high rates of growth primarily because of recovery from recession lows. Because this recovery has already occurred for many sectors, the pro jected growth rates for 1984-95 appear to be lower. • Some industries have not fully recovered yet from their recession troughs but are still expected to do so. This may result in projections of unusually high rates of growth Alternatives Evaluations of previous bls projections have shown that at the industry level, the employment estimates can vary from actual experience by as much as 17 percent.6 The 37 Table 7. Employment1 by Industry, 1959-95 [In th o u s a n d s ] A c tu a l P r o je c te d In d u s try 19 9 0 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 79 19 9 5 198 4 Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h A g r i c u lt u r e , f o r e s t r y , a n d fis h e r ie s : 1 .4 7 9 75 4 449 374 3 18 324 327 297 305 3 10 M e a t a n im a ls a n d l i v e s t o c k .......................................................................................... 933 70 1 527 472 439 448 452 398 404 4 15 C o tto n ............................................................................................................................................................ 539 15 9 58 46 33 31 38 24 29 33 F o o d a n d fe e d g r a i n s ............................................................................................................... 9 15 589 583 604 536 555 561 500 506 5 15 A g r i c u ltu r a l p r o d u c t s , n . e . c .............................................................................................. 1 ,1 6 8 D a ir y a n d p o u l tr y p r o d u c t s ........................................................................................... 1 .3 6 9 1 ,0 3 7 1 ,1 5 5 1 ,1 5 5 1 ,1 5 0 1 ,1 5 5 1 ,1 6 7 1 ,1 3 5 1 ,1 5 7 ................................................................................. 63 55 80 78 73 77 78 76 82 89 ............................................................................................................... 285 327 488 564 5 75 5 74 5 78 540 5 76 598 15 F o r e s t r y a n d f is h e r y p r o d u c t s A g r i c u ltu r a l s e r v ic e s M in i n g : ............................................................................ 33 30 31 17 14 15 16 12 13 .................................................................................................................... 23 34 33 16 14 16 18 12 14 I r o n a n d fe r r o a llo y o r e s m in in g C o p p e r o r e m in in g 16 ................................................................................. 31 25 38 24 21 22 24 16 18 19 C o a l m i n i n g ............................................................................................................................................. 201 13 8 261 19 8 19 1 19 9 203 18 1 18 5 18 9 C r u d e p e tr o le u m a n d n a tu r a l g a s 303 N o n f e r r o u s m e ta l o r e s m in in g ....................................................................... 202 15 7 2 12 285 283 291 296 2 74 289 S to n e a n d c la y m in in g a n d q u a r r y i n g ............................................................. 10 5 99 10 4 90 91 96 97 87 92 97 C h e m ic a l a n d f e r tiliz e r m in e r a l m i n i n g ........................................................ 19 18 25 21 19 21 22 18 20 22 C o n s tru c tio n : M a in te n a n c e a n d re p a ir c o n s t r u c t i o n ............................................................ N e w c o n s tr u c ti o n ......................................................................................................................... 870 868 1 ,3 3 9 1 ,2 4 6 1 ,2 7 5 1 ,3 3 2 1 ,3 5 8 1 ,3 7 3 1 ,4 0 4 1 ,4 3 0 3 ,0 4 0 3 ,5 0 6 4 ,5 4 0 4 ,6 7 4 4 ,6 3 5 4 ,8 5 7 4 ,9 1 8 4 ,9 5 7 5 ,2 3 2 5 ,4 2 7 M a n u f a c t u r in g : D u r a b le g o o d s : O r d n a n c e ....................................................................................................................................................... 50 175 73 95 10 3 10 8 110 10 5 111 118 G u i d e d m is s ile s a n d s p a c e v e h i c l e s .................................................................. 94 10 7 81 120 14 3 149 15 1 143 15 2 15 8 13 7 149 125 .......................................................................................... 305 230 237 203 18 4 19 2 195 18 3 19 0 19 5 M i l l w o r k , p l y w o o d , a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s , n . e . c ................................. 264 3 10 393 360 366 380 385 363 381 394 L o g g in g ....................................................................................................................................................... S a w m i lls a n d p la n in g m ills 14 9 10 7 111 114 10 0 10 7 114 .................................................................................................................... 43 36 19 14 11 12 13 8 9 10 H o u s e h o ld f u r n i t u r e .................................................................................................................... 259 3 16 329 295 303 3 17 322 303 321 332 W o o d e n c o n ta in e rs F u r n i tu r e a n d f i x t u r e s , e x c e p t h o u s e h o ld ............................................. 12 6 15 3 176 2 11 241 247 254 249 262 275 ................................................................................................................................................................. 15 3 18 8 202 16 9 16 7 171 175 16 4 173 179 C e m e n t a n d c o n c r e te p r o d u c t s ................................................................................. 210 228 255 231 238 245 248 238 249 255 G la s s S tr u c tu r a l c la y p r o d u c t s ..................................................................................................... 78 64 52 38 32 35 36 26 30 33 ...................................................................................... 49 45 52 45 44 47 48 46 47 50 S to n e a n d o t h e r m in e r a l p r o d u c t s , n . e . c .................................................... 125 140 165 13 3 14 6 • 15 0 15 4 14 4 149 15 6 B la s t f u r n a c e s a n d b a s ic s te e l p r o d u c t s .................................................. 588 644 5 71 335 283 3 11 339 235 261 325 204 P o t t e r y a n d re la te d p r o d u c t s 269 3 12 324 209 19 2 205 208 18 2 19 4 P r im a r y c o p p e r a n d c o p p e r p r o d u c t s ............................................................. 13 7 16 0 16 1 13 3 13 2 13 7 140 127 13 3 140 P r im a r y a l u m i n u m a n d a l u m i n u m p r o d u c t s ......................................... 111 15 3 170 14 7 14 7 15 3 15 7 15 0 15 8 16 2 .............................................. 78 93 93 77 71 75 76 66 70 74 M e ta l c a n s a n d c o n t a i n e r s ................................................................................................ 75 87 80 58 54 58 59 48 52 55 H e a t in g e q u i p m e n t a n d p lu m b in g f i x t u r e s .............................................. 71 76 76 63 60 63 64 57 60 62 542 I r o n a n d ste e l f o u n d r i e s a n d fo r g in g s ........................................................ P r im a r y n o n f e r r o u s m e ta ls a n d p r o d u c t s F a b r ic a t e d s t ru c t u r a l m e ta l p r o d u c t s ............................................................ 345 440 507 501 525 114 448 97 496 88 535 117 479 S c r e w m a c h in e p r o d u c t s ..................................................................................................... 99 10 6 10 8 10 1 10 8 113 M e ta l s t a m p i n g s .............................................................................................................................. 18 9 255 245 2 11 2 19 229 231 224 232 240 C u t le r y , h a n d t o o ls , a n d g e n e ra l h a r d w a r e ............................................. 13 5 16 5 18 5 14 8 15 5 16 1 16 3 15 6 16 4 16 9 F a b r ic a te d m e ta l p r o d u c t s , n . e . c .............................................................................. 232 3 15 3 76 344 3 72 387 393 381 402 423 E n g in e s a n d t u r b i n e s ............................................................................................................... 90 112 14 5 116 115 121 123 117 124 13 0 12 8 141 18 4 111 12 5 13 1 13 5 129 13 6 145 .............................................. 16 2 202 2 76 178 203 208 2 11 206 2 16 226 ................................................................................. 65 95 10 6 80 99 10 4 10 5 113 119 12 3 M e ta lw o r k in g m a c h i n e r y ..................................................................................................... 252 347 3 79 3 13 346 360 366 357 3 77 392 F a r m a n d g a rd e n m a c h in e ry ...................................................................................... C o n s t r u c t i o n , m i n in g , o ilfie ld m a c h i n e r y M a te ria ls h a n d lin g e q u i p m e n t .......................................................................................... 16 4 206 205 16 8 176 18 7 19 0 18 6 19 7 204 ...................................................................................... 221 291 329 273 292 309 3 13 308 325 336 N o n e le c tr ic a l m a c h i n e r y , n . e . c .................................................................................... 16 8 246 3 12 301 326 338 344 337 356 366 111 74 1 S p e c ia l in d u s tr y m a c h i n e r y G e n e ra l in d u s tr ia l m a c h i n e r y 224 339 4 79 6 14 640 648 680 713 T y p e w r it e r s a n d o t h e r o ffic e m a c h i n e s ....................................................... 28 52 59 48 46 50 50 41 44 47 S e r v i c e in d u s tr y m a c h i n e s ............................................................................................... 97 14 7 18 8 171 178 18 7 19 1 18 6 19 4 201 E le c tr ic t r a n s m i s s io n e q u i p m e n t ........................................................................... 15 7 207 221 224 221 228 230 221 231 238 250 C o m p u t e r s a n d p e rip h e ra l e q u i p m e n t ............................................................. E le c tr ic a l in d u s tr ia l a p p a r a t u s ...................................................................................... 176 223 251 206 223 230 232 229 241 H o u s e h o ld a p p l i a n c e s .............................................................................................................. 15 7 18 7 178 15 0 14 7 15 3 15 5 14 6 15 0 15 6 E le c tr ic lig h tin g a n d w ir in g e q u i p m e n t ....................................................... 13 4 205 225 201 212 221 223 2 13 223 234 R a d i o a n d te le v is io n re c e iv in g e q u i p m e n t ............................................. 114 15 6 116 93 89 90 95 83 87 91 T e l e p h o n e a n d te le g r a p h a p p a r a t u s ................................................................. 10 5 14 6 16 5 144 16 8 171 173 176 18 0 18 4 ....................................................... 252 409 357 4 72 537 556 564 584 607 622 E le c tr o n i c c o m p o n e n t s a n d a c c e s s o r i e s .................................................. 213 394 525 6 73 75 0 79 7 808 802 846 877 E le c tr ic a l m a c h i n e r y a n d s u p p l ie s , n . e . c ..................................................... 112 125 176 16 3 18 1 18 3 18 9 18 6 19 4 205 M o t o r v e h ic le s .................................................................................................................................. 696 9 12 991 863 820 852 863 79 5 828 A i r c r a f t ............................................................................................................................................................ 72 2 805 632 634 666 692 710 680 714 73 7 S h ip a n d b o a t b u ild in g a n d r e p a i r ...................................................................... 15 2 19 3 230 19 9 206 222 225 2 15 225 237 41 51 74 36 36 36 39 35 36 38 9 14 20 16 15 17 18 14 16 19 R a d i o a n d c o m m u n i c a t io n e q u i p m e n t R a ilr o a d e q u i p m e n t ................................................................................................................... M o t o r c y c l e s , b ic y c le s , a n d p a r ts ...................................................................... S e e f o o t n o t e s a t e n d o f ta b le . 38 861 Table 7. Continued—Employment1 by industry, 1959-95 [In th o u s a n d s ] A c tu a l P ro je c te d 19 9 0 Indu stry 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 79 19 9 5 19 8 4 Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h M a n u f a c t u r i n g :- C o n t i n u e d D u r a b le g o o d s — C o n tin u e d 23 89 10 3 86 10 2 10 5 99 10 6 114 ....................................................... 166 19 5 2 15 222 263 268 274 287 304 3 15 M e d ic a l in s tr u m e n ts a n d s u p p l i e s ...................................................................... 45 82 14 4 172 207 2 16 220 223 234 244 O p tic a l a n d o p h t h a lm ic e q u i p m e n t 85 75 81 77 76 80 82 73 78 81 69 111 13 4 124 13 0 13 3 13 4 13 0 13 6 14 3 T r a n s p o r t a t io n e q u i p m e n t , n . e . c .............................................................................. S c ie n tific a n d c o n tr o llin g in s tr u m e n ts ................................................................. P h o t o g r a p h ic e q u i p m e n t a n d s u p p lie s W a tc h e s a n d c l o c k s ................................................................................................................... 30 35 28 15 98 15 16 17 14 15 17 67 78 92 78 75 78 82 73 78 81 ............................................. 116 14 9 145 14 1 13 6 143 14 4 13 6 14 3 149 M a n u f a c t u r e d p r o d u c t s , n . e . c ...................................................................................... 232 233 244 208 208 211 2 15 19 5 203 2 10 339 J e w e l r y a n d s i l v e r w a r e ......................................................................................................... M u s ic a l in s tr u m e n ts a n d s p o r tin g g o o d s N o n d u r a b le g o o d s : M e a t p ro d u c ts ................................................................................................................................. 325 344 363 361 335 345 350 320 331 D a ir y p r o d u c t s ................................................................................................................................. 327 260 18 9 16 4 129 13 4 13 8 12 2 12 7 13 3 249 291 3 16 286 2 73 287 293 261 275 284 C a n n e d an d fro ze n fo o d s ............................................................................................... .................................................................................................................. 14 0 13 7 147 13 0 128 13 2 13 5 12 4 12 8 13 5 ............................................................................................................................ 3 14 286 238 218 19 1 19 7 200 18 2 18 8 19 4 ............................................................................................................................................................... 38 36 31 25 21 22 23 18 19 20 C o n f e c t io n e r y p r o d u c t s ......................................................................................................... 79 87 80 77 67 71 73 61 66 G r a i n m ill p r o d u c t s B a k e ry p r o d u c t s Sugar 71 A lc o h o lic b e v e r a g e s .................................................................................................................. 10 7 97 86 72 61 63 65 51 58 64 S o f t d r in k s a n d f l a v o r i n g s ............................................................................................... 111 142 15 3 144 13 4 13 9 14 1 127 13 4 15 4 15 7 146 13 9 14 8 F o o d p r o d u c t s , n . e . c .................................................................................................................. 14 4 15 1 160 15 0 15 1 15 4 95 83 70 65 59 61 61 54 56 58 ................................................................................ 6 19 6 16 531 440 390 406 408 343 361 381 F lo o r c o v e r in g m i l l s .................................................................................................................. 39 58 61 54 44 47 49 41 44 45 T o b a c c o m a n u fa c tu rin g ................................................................................................... F a b r ic , y a r n , a n d th re a d m ills T e x tile m ill p r o d u c t s , n . e . c ............................................................................................... 74 82 71 56 49 52 54 44 47 49 H o s ie r y a n d k n it g o o d s ......................................................................................................... 221 251 227 206 179 18 5 18 6 16 0 16 9 177 A p p a r e l .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 ,1 0 1 1 ,2 4 4 1 ,1 2 5 1 ,0 2 3 883 924 937 775 8 18 851 F a b r ic a te d te x tile p r o d u c t s , n . e . c ............................................................................ 144 18 2 19 8 19 4 18 4 19 1 200 177 18 6 19 7 P a p e r p r o d u c t s ................................................................................................................................. 4 15 494 486 465 486 492 455 480 498 P a p e r b o a r d c o n ta in e rs a n d b o x e s ...................................................................... 175 231 214 19 6 179 19 0 19 2 173 18 4 432 463 497 5 12 522 526 548 565 289 298 307 296 3 13 325 483 190 329 3 76 ................................... 15 6 2 10 230 274 P r in tin g a n d p u b li s h i n g , n . e . c ..................................................................................... 450 549 639 725 79 2 826 839 856 890 925 I n d u s tr ia l c h e m i c a l s .............................................................................................................. 260 296 328 300 291 302 307 287 306 322 N e w s p a p e r p rin tin g a n d p u b lis h in g ................................................................. P e rio d ic a l a n d b o o k p r in tin g a n d p u b lis h in g 54 65 70 61 61 62 64 60 62 64 C h e m ic a l p r o d u c t s , n . e . c ................................................................................................. 82 124 99 99 95 10 2 10 4 96 10 2 10 5 P la s tic m a te ria ls a n d s y n th e tic r u b b e r .................................................. 81 10 8 10 0 88 83 87 89 79 83 86 S y n th e tic f i b e r s ............................................................................................................................. 79 112 15 3 88 82 229 89 235 74 234 79 245 82 254 16 6 A g r ic u ltu r a l c h e m i c a l s ......................................................................................................... 10 6 13 2 T43 206 75 222 ...................................................................... 89 123 14 0 145 14 9 15 4 15 6 15 4 16 0 P a in t s a n d a llie d p r o d u c t s .......................................................................................... 62 72 69 62 57 60 61 54 58 60 2 17 18 2 2 10 18 9 179 18 3 18 5 16 8 175 18 2 D ru g s .......................................................................................................................................................... C le a n in g a n d to ile t p r e p a r a tio n s P e t r o le u m r e fin in g a n d re la te d p r o d u c t s .................................................. T ir e s a n d in n e r t u b e s .............................................................................................................. 10 5 R u b b e r p r o d u c t s e x c e p t tir e s a n d t u b e s .................................................. 178 16 2 16 7 14 8 14 0 145 148 12 6 13 2 13 7 P la s tic s p r o d u c t s , n . e . c ......................................................................................................... 94 320 494 544 620 659 6 76 6 70 712 75 3 L e a th e r ta n n in g a n d f i n i s h i n g ..................................................................................... L e a th e r p r o d u c t s in c lu d in g f o o t w e a r ............................................................ 119 127 94 87 90 92 82 86 92 36 29 20 17 13 15 15 11 13 13 341 3 16 232 178 14 5 15 2 16 1 12 1 13 0 13 9 3 14 T r a n s p o r t a t io n : L o c a l tr a n s it a n d in te r c ity b u s e s ........................................................................... 930 3 15 651 3 14 559 302 3 78 3 17 3 16 323 325 325 332 272 323 283 330 298 338 T r u c k t r a n s p o r t a t i o n .................................................................................................................. R a ilr o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ........................................................................................................ 1 ,0 1 9 1 ,2 1 2 1 ,5 5 1 1 ,5 6 0 1 ,6 7 3 1 ,7 5 0 1 ,7 8 3 1 ,7 6 6 1 ,8 6 8 1 ,9 5 0 239 234 222 206 207 218 222 220 230 239 18 5 357 443 498 5 16 538 545 556 5 79 607 W a te r tr a n s p o r ta tio n .............................................................................................................. A i r tr a n s p o r ta tio n P i p e lin e s , e x c e p t n a tu ra l g a s ..................................................................................... 24 18 20 19 19 20 21 20 20 22 T r a n s p o r t a t io n s e r v i c e s ........................................................................................................ 71 111 19 8 262 3 18 333 339 362 382 399 90 74 9 13 1 19 1 237 253 263 268 2 78 290 303 ...................................... 9 19 1 ,1 2 1 1 ,1 1 6 1 ,1 7 6 1 ,2 2 2 1 ,2 4 3 1 ,2 2 8 1 ,2 9 5 1 ,3 5 3 ................................................................. 430 460 608 70 2 73 8 76 3 778 78 4 827 863 2 15 220 220 223 218 227 233 214 226 235 63 88 94 115 118 12 1 12 4 118 12 4 13 3 C o m m u n i c a t io n s : R a d io a n d te le v is io n b r o a d c a s t i n g ...................................................................... C o m m u n i c a t io n s , e x c e p t r a d io a n d tv P u b l ic u tilitie s : E le c tr ic u tilitie s , p u b lic a n d p riv a te G a s u tilitie s ...................................................................... W a te r a n d s a n ita r y s e r v i c e s .......................................................................................... Trad e: W h o le s a le tra d e E a tin g a n d d r in k in g p la c e s .......................................................................................... R e ta il tr a d e , e x c e p t e a tin g a n d d r in k in g p la c e s .................... 3 ,3 8 0 4 ,1 5 9 2 ,0 0 2 2 ,8 0 6 4 ,8 5 7 5 ,7 3 3 6 ,1 9 0 6 ,4 7 0 6 ,5 9 7 6 ,6 2 5 6 ,9 3 6 7 ,2 5 0 8 ,1 1 0 9 ,7 0 6 1 1 ,9 5 3 1 2 ,6 6 0 1 3 ,3 2 9 1 3 ,9 2 6 1 4 ,2 8 2 1 3 ,5 9 0 1 4 ,3 5 1 1 5 ,0 0 4 5 ,5 0 1 5 ,8 9 7 6 ,4 7 1 6 ,7 1 0 6 ,8 2 7 6 ,6 3 2 6 ,9 8 5 7 ,2 9 1 F in a n c e , in s u r a n c e , a n d real e s ta te : B a n k i n g .......................................................................................................................................................... 644 987 1 ,4 9 8 1 ,6 7 8 1 ,7 0 6 1 ,7 8 0 1 ,8 5 7 1 ,7 7 7 C r e d it a g e n c ie s a n d fin a n c ia l b r o k e r s ............................................................ 391 652 900 1 ,2 3 9 1 ,4 0 0 1 ,4 6 7 1 ,4 9 2 1 ,5 3 8 1 ,6 2 1 1 ,6 8 9 1 ,1 5 0 1 ,3 6 8 1 ,7 4 8 1 ,9 0 4 2 ,0 7 5 2 ,1 5 0 2 ,1 7 3 2 ,1 1 2 2 ,2 3 7 2 ,3 3 5 774 852 1 ,3 6 8 1 ,4 7 5 1 ,5 1 8 1 ,5 9 4 1 ,6 2 4 1 ,5 9 8 1 ,6 7 5 1 ,7 4 7 In s u r a n c e ............................................................................................... R e a l e s t a t e ................................................................................................................................................ S e e f o o t n o t e s at e n d o f ta b le 39 1 ,8 6 5 1 ,9 4 6 Table 7. Continued— Employment1 by industry, 1959-95 [In thousands] A c tu a l P r o je c te d In d u s try 19 9 0 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 79 19 9 5 198 4 Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h 2 ,4 2 0 S e rv ic e s : H o t e l s a n d lo d g in g p l a c e s ............................................................................................... 906 1 ,0 6 0 1 ,5 4 3 1 ,9 1 4 2 ,0 6 3 2 ,1 4 6 2 ,1 9 8 2 ,1 5 3 2 ,2 9 9 ...................................................................................... 1 ,2 0 2 1 ,2 2 6 1 ,2 3 1 1 ,3 8 8 1 ,4 8 6 1 ,5 3 5 1 ,5 7 2 1 ,5 7 9 1 ,6 6 4 ............................................................................................... 5 76 629 626 663 638 6 70 6 71 636 6 75 70 9 ......................................................................................................................... 830 1 ,6 8 8 3 ,1 7 3 4 ,6 1 2 5 ,9 9 5 6 ,2 0 0 6 ,3 1 0 6 ,8 8 7 7 ,2 4 5 7 ,5 3 5 ............................................................................................................................................. 12 3 13 4 16 5 213 246 250 253 260 267 277 P r o f e s s i o n a l s e r v ic e s , n . e . c ............................................................................................. P e r s o n a l a n d re p a ir s e r v ic e s B e a u ty a n d b a r b e r s h o p s B u s in e s s s e r v ic e s A d v e r t is i n g 1 ,7 3 2 78 5 1 ,0 4 1 1 ,8 0 4 2 ,2 9 5 2 ,7 0 2 2 ,8 2 3 2 ,8 7 6 3 ,1 7 0 3 ,3 3 5 3 ,4 8 3 ........................................................................... 443 566 834 1 ,0 2 2 1 ,0 1 5 1 ,0 7 9 1 ,1 0 2 1 ,1 2 3 1 ,1 9 4 1 ,2 4 9 ............................................................................................................................. 232 247 309 328 346 358 366 3 77 390 408 A m u s e m e n t s a n d r e c r e a tio n s e r v i c e s ............................................................ 3 78 496 76 8 869 1 ,0 0 3 1 ,0 4 5 1 ,0 6 6 1 ,0 8 4 1 ,1 3 5 1 ,1 8 1 A u t o m o b il e r e p a ir a n d s e r v ic e s M o t i o n p ic tu r e s 642 801 1 ,3 4 6 1 ,6 5 0 1 ,9 0 2 1 ,9 4 9 2 ,1 2 0 2 ,1 9 0 H o s p i t a l s ....................................................................................................................................................... 9 75 1 ,7 7 6 2 ,6 1 4 3 ,0 0 1 3 ,0 9 3 3 ,2 4 2 3 ,3 0 0 3 ,0 7 1 3 ,2 5 6 3 ,4 0 0 M e d ic a l s e r v ic e s , n . e . c ............................................................................................................ 3 13 6 71 1 ,4 3 2 1 ,8 2 1 2 ,3 4 7 2 ,4 4 9 2 ,4 9 5 2 ,7 2 5 2 ,8 8 6 3 ,0 2 3 D o c t o r s ' a n d d e n t is t s ’ s e r v ic e s ........................................................................... 1 ,9 8 9 2 ,2 8 4 853 1 ,2 2 7 1 ,7 1 8 1 ,9 2 8 1 ,9 8 3 2 ,0 5 7 2 ,0 8 5 2 ,0 2 5 2 ,1 4 7 2 ,2 3 5 ................................................................................. 1 ,3 3 3 1 ,7 6 4 2 ,0 7 2 2 ,1 8 2 2 ,2 6 1 2 ,3 3 9 2 ,3 8 0 2 ,3 9 6 2 ,4 8 6 2 ,6 0 2 .................................................................................................................... 2 ,2 7 9 1 ,8 5 6 1 ,3 2 6 1 ,2 4 2 1 ,1 0 6 1 ,1 4 8 1 ,1 7 4 982 1 ,0 2 3 1 ,0 6 0 U S . P o s t a l S e r v i c e .................................................................................................................... 5 74 73 2 661 70 3 657 699 712 640 6 77 721 F e d e r a l e n t e r p r i s e s , n . e . c ..................................................................................................... 10 4 15 2 15 5 12 3 129 13 4 13 6 13 3 140 145 E d u c a tio n a l s e r v i c e s .................................................................................................................... N o n c o m m e r c ia l o r g a n i z a t io n s H o u s e h o ld in d u s t r y G o v e r n m e n t e n t e r p ris e s : L o c a l g o v e r n m e n t p a s s e n g e r tr a n s it ............................................................ 71 87 13 0 174 19 4 19 7 200 202 209 2 19 S ta te a n d lo c a l e n t e r p r i s e s , n . e . c ........................................................................... 225 351 541 485 493 5 13 525 509 536 568 1 1 n c lu d e s w a g e a n d s a la r y j o b s , th e s e l f- e m p lo y e d , a n d u n p a id fa m i ly w o r k e r s , n .e .c . = n o t e ls e w h e r e c la s s ifie d . for some industries between 1984 and 1995. Examples are construction and mining machinery, farm machinery, and some of the mining industries. • The composition of in 1995 in the new projections is shifted more towards producers’ durable equipment, exports and imports, and defense. Purchases of nondur able goods, on the other hand, are now projected to be lower. • More investment in capital goods results in higher pro ductivity in the new projections, especially in man ufacturing. Consequently, manufacturing employment in g n 1995 is lower than previously estimated. In the last pro jections, many manufacturing industries were not ex pected to reattain historical peaks, and that is even more true in the new projections. • The shift to service employment is even more pronounced in the new projections. Despite a lower total employment level in 1995, service sector employment is almost the same as in the previous set of projections. The service sector had been expected to account for 24.5 percent of total jobs in 1995; now, it is expected to hold a 25.4percent share. □ p b l s FOOTNOTES manufacturing industries. Two nonmanufacturing industries—computer and data processing services and research and development laboratories— are included because their product is technical support for manufacturing industries. The broadest definition of a high technology industry specifies only that the proportion of technology-oriented workers to total employment must be one and a half times the average for all industries. The narrowest definition requires the industry ratio of r&d expenditures to net sales to be twice the all-industry average. For more information on high tech industries, see Richard W. Riche, Daniel E. Hecker, and John U. Burgan, “ High-technology today and tomorrow; a small slice of the employment pie,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 50-58. 6John H. Tschetter, “ An evaluation of bls ’s projections of 1980 industry employment,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1984, pp. 12-22. 7See several articles in the Monthly Labor Review, November 1983, pp. 3-49; and Employment Projections for 1995, Bulletin 2197 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 1984). 8For a discussion of the differences between household and establish ment employment, see the Explanatory Notes in any monthly issue of the BLS publication Employment and Earnings. 1In developing projections, b l s procedures yield employment at two distinct levels of disaggregation. In the input-output model used, the econ omy is divided into 156 sectors, of which 149 have employment. As the projections proceed, a second level of disaggregation produces employment projections for 378 separate industries at the 3-digit sic (Standard industrial Classification) level, which match the industry detail in the industry-oc cupation matrix used in developing the projections of employment by occupation. 2As reported in personal interviews with industry executives conducted b y b l s staff. 3See footnote 1. 4For descriptions of many of these new technologies, see the series of publications developed by the Bureau’s Office of Productivity and Tech nology. The latest report, The Impact of Technology on Labor in Four Industries, Bulletin 2228 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 1985), contains a complete list of these studies. 5The b l s intermediate definition of high tech includes manufacturing industries having a ratio of r & d expenditures to net sales that is close to or above the average for all industries, and a ratio of technology-oriented workers to total employment equal to or greater than the average for all 40 Occupational employment projections: the 1984-95 outlook The occupational structure o f the economy is estimated to change through the mid-1990’s as employment growth rates fo r many occupations depart from historical trends G eorge T. S i l v e s t r i a n d Jo h n M. L u k a s ie w ic z include all the detailed occupations found in the economy. (See table 1.) Over the 1984-95 period, the three major occupational groups having the largest proportion of workers with a col lege education or specialized post-secondary technical train ing are expected to increase faster than the average for all occupations (that is, the projected growth rate for total em ployment). The first of these three major groups, executive, administrative, and managerial workers, is projected to in crease by 22 percent, compared with the 15-percent growth rate for total employment. The demand for salaried man agers is expected to increase rapidly as firms increasingly depend on trained management specialists. The projected rate of growth for professional specialties is 22 percent, with an increase of 2.8 million jobs. Many occupations in this group are expected to surge, including computer-related occupations, engineering, and health specialties. The ranks of technicians and related support workers, with a 29-percent increase, are projected to grow the fastest of all the major occupational groups. This group also had the fastest rate of growth from 1973 to 1984. The rate of expansion of all three groups, while faster than average, will be slower than in the past. The number of salesworkers is projected to increase faster than average from 1984 to 1995, adding about 2.2 million jobs. The projected increase of 20 percent, however, is about half of the growth rate experienced from 1973 to 1984. Administrative support workers, including clerical, which grew about as fast as average during the 1973-84 period, According to the most recent projections of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, occupational employment growth trends over the 1984-95 period are expected to depart from the recent past for some broad occupational groups and for many detailed occupations. Some occupations, especially in the clerical group, are expected to slow their rate of growth considerably, while others, mainly blue-collar occupations, that grew in the past are expected to decline. These changes result from a projected slowing of total employment growth, from changes in industry growth trends, and from techno logical change affecting the occupational structure of in dustries. Many occupations that expanded rapidly from the early 1970’s to the mid-1980’s will still grow faster than average, although they are expected to have slower growth rates through the mid-1990’s. Despite the slowing of total employment growth, from 23 percent to 15 percent, a few occupations are expected to grow faster over the 1984-95 period than over the previous 11 years. Broad occupational structure Insights into the changing occupational structure of the United States, implied by the Bureau’s projections, can be obtained by viewing the data in several different ways. The first approach presented here is a comparison of past and projected growth for the 10 major occupational groups that G eorge T. Silvestn and John L ukasiew icz are econ om ists in the D ivision o f Occupational O utlook, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. 41 Table 1. Total civilian employment by broad occupational group, actual 1984 and projected 1995, and percent change in employment, 1973-84 and 1984-95 [Numbers in thousands] 198 4 P e r c e n t ch a n g e in e m p lo y m e n t 19 9 5 O c c u p a tio n T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. Num ber P e rc e n t Num ber P e rc e n t 1 9 7 3 -8 4 1 9 8 4 -9 5 1 0 6 ,8 4 3 1 0 0 .0 1 2 2 ,7 6 0 1 0 0 .0 2 3 .4 1 4 .9 ............................................................................................................... 1 1 ,2 7 4 1 0 .6 1 3 ,7 6 2 1 1 .2 4 8 .4 2 2 .1 P r o f e s s i o n a l w o r k e r s ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 2 ,8 0 5 E x e c u t i v e , a d m i n i s t r a t iv e , a n d m a n a g e r ia l w o r k e r s 1 2 .0 1 5 ,5 7 8 1 2 .7 4 6 .2 2 1 .7 T e c h n i c i a n s a n d re la te d s u p p o r t w o r k e r s .................................................................................................................................................. 3 ,2 0 6 3 .0 4 ,1 1 9 3 4 5 8 .3 2 8 .7 S a l e s w o r k e r s ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 1 ,1 7 3 1 0 .5 1 3 ,3 9 3 1 0 .9 4 1 .5 1 9 .9 A d m in is t r a t iv e s u p p o r t w o r k e r s , in c lu d in g c l e r i c a l ................................................................................................................... 1 8 ,7 1 6 1 7 .5 2 0 ,4 9 9 1 6 .7 2 4 .7 P r iv a t e h o u s e h o l d w o r k e r s ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 993 .9 811 .7 9 .5 - 2 7 .0 - 1 8 .3 2 1 .3 S e r v i c e w o r k e r s , e x c e p t p r iv a te h o u s e h o ld w o r k e r s .............................................................................................................. 1 5 ,5 8 9 1 4 .6 1 8 ,9 1 7 1 5 .4 3 7 .6 P r e c is io n p r o d u c t i o n , c r a f t , a n d re p a ir w o r k e r s .............................................................................................................................. 1 2 ,1 7 6 11 4 1 3 ,6 0 1 1 1 .1 2 0 .2 O p e r a t o r s , f a b r ic a t o r s , a n d l a b o r e r s ................................................................................................................................................................. 1 7 ,3 5 7 1 6 .2 1 8 ,6 3 4 1 5 .2 - 7 .2 7 .3 3 ,5 5 4 3 .3 3 ,4 4 7 2 .8 -5 9 - 3 .0 F a r m i n g , f o r e s t r y , a n d fis h in g w o r k e r s Note: ...................................................................................................................................................... E s t im a t e s o f 1 9 8 4 e m p l o y m e n t , th e b a s e y e a r f o r th e 1 9 9 5 p r o je c t io n s , w e r e d e r iv e d f r o m d a ta c o lle c te d in th e O c c u p a t io n a l E m p l o y m e n t S ta tis tic s T h e 1 9 7 3 - 8 4 c h a n g e w a s d e r iv e d f r o m C u r r e n t P o p u l a t io n S u r v e y (cps) (oes) S u rve ys. S u r v e y s f o r 1 9 7 3 w e r e n o t a v a ila b le . T h e o c c u p a tio n a l g r o u p s in th is ta b le c o n f o r m to th e cps c la s s ific a tio n a n d d o n o t m a t c h th e oes c la s s ific a tio n f o u n d in ta b le 2 . d a ta b e c a u s e oes are projected to grow more slowly than average through the mid- 1990’s. This group is expected to add 1.8 million jobs during the 1984-95 period, however, and remain the largest group, with 20.5 million workers in 1995. Workers in this occupational group are not concentrated in any specific in dustry sector; they are found in virtually every industry in the economy. Therefore, differences in employment growth trends among industries will have less of an impact on clerical workers than on most other broad groups. What is already having an effect on the employment of clerical work ers and should be more pronounced through the mid-1990’s is the rapid spread of computerized office equipment and other related office automation. The automation of clerical tasks will slow the growth of many detailed occupations, including secretaries and typists and cause others, such as payroll and timekeeping clerks, to decline. As a result, the share of total employment accounted for by the administra tive support group, is projected to decline from 17.5 percent in 1984 to 16.7 percent in 1995. Private household workers are expected to continue their long-term employment decline. However, the rate of decline is projected to be considerably slower than the rate of decline from 1973 to 1984. Service workers, except private household workers, are projected to continue to grow faster than total employment, despite a significant slowing of the growth rate from 38 percent during the 1973-84 period to 21 percent for the 1984-95 period. This occupational group is expected to account for more job growth than any other broad group and to account for 3.3 million of the 16 million jobs expected to be added from 1984 to 1995. In contrast, during the 1973-84 period, three other occupational groups, managers, professional workers, and clerical workers, each added more jobs than service workers. The large number of new jobs expected to be added by service workers is a result of the continued shift of the economy from goods production to services production. As in the recent past, employment in service-producing industries, particularly those in which 1 1 .7 service workers are concentrated, is expected to continue to increase faster than goods-producing industries and ac count for a much greater share of total employment. Precision production, craft, and repair occupations are projected to grow by nearly 12 percent—somewhat more slowly than total employment. Their percent of total em ployment is expected to decline slightly from 11.4 to 11.1 percent. The increase of these workers is heavily tied to the growth of the construction and manufacturing industries in which they are concentrated; manufacturing is projected to grow slowly, while construction is projected to have average growth, thereby slowing the growth of the precision pro duction, craft, and repair occupations. Operators, fabricators, and laborers are projected to in crease by only 7 percent from 1984 to 1995. Nevertheless, this represents a change from the 1973-84 period when the rate for these workers declined. However, during the 1973— 84 period, employment declined in many manufacturing industries in which these workers are concentrated because the effects of the 1980-82 recession period were still felt in many industries in 1984. Over the 1984-95 period, man ufacturing is projected to grow slowly. Many detailed oc cupations in this major occupational group, including machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors, are expected to be affected by the new technologies in manufacturing, such as computer-aided manufacturing and robotics. However, technological change is expected to have less of an impact on transportation and material moving occupations in this group, such as truck drivers, bus drivers and airplane pilots. Farming, forestry, and fishing workers are expected to continue to decline because of productivity growth in ag riculture. The projected decline for these workers, about 3 percent, however, is expected to be about half that in the recent past. Methodological approach The Bureau’s method of developing occupational projec tions provides a method for Bureau analysts to account for 42 have an increase in demand for elementary schoolteachers as the number of elementary school age children rises, but a decline in demand for college teachers as the number of college age students declines. Therefore, the occupational structure of the educational services industry in 1995 is projected to have a larger proportion of elementary school teachers than in 1984 but to also have a smaller proportion of college teachers. It is important to remember that occupational structure changes and industry employment shifts do not operate in isolation. The factors interact with one another and it is usually not possible to attribute an occupational employment change solely to one factor. Computer programmers, for example, are generally increasing as a proportion of em ployment in most industries, but overall employment growth for this occupation is also affected by increasing total em ployment within most industries that are large employers of these computer-related occupations. The Bureau has developed three sets of occupational pro jections with each set tied to one of the economic and in dustry employment alternatives presented elsewhere in this publication. The projected staffing patterns of industries used to translate industry employment into occupational employment were identical for all alternatives. The different growth rates for occupations among the alternatives, therefore, reflect the assumptions and analyses that underlie the alternative industry employment projections. The basic changes in the occupational structure of the economy from 1984 to 1995 among the three alternatives are similar. Thus, although this article focuses on the mod erate scenario, the discussion would be very similar if either of the other scenarios were highlighted. The major differ ences in trends among the alternatives are discussed later in this article. Differences in the occupational projections among the three alternatives should not be considered as the potential range within which projected 1995 employment will fall. The potential range is wider because most occu pations are sensitive to a much wider variety of assumptions than those that were considered in the alternatives that are presented. the effects of the wide variety of factors that are expected to cause changes in employment for specific occupations. An industry-occupation matrix is the primary statistical tool used for developing occupational projections. The matrix for 1984 presents, in percentage terms, the distribution of more than 500 occupations in 378 industries based on recent surveys of occupational employment by industry .1The oc cupational structure for each industry was projected to 1995 through analyses of the factors that are expected to change the structure. The projected structure was applied to the projected total industry employment derived from the Bu reau’s economic model, which captures expected changes in the structure of demand among industries, changes in labor requirements per unit of output, and other factors as specified in the accompanying articles. The complex factors that affect the employment growth for detailed occupations can be classified into two catego ries—the expansion of detailed industries and the changing occupational structure of industries. The growth of specific industries has a significant bearing on the growth of occu pations because occupations account for widely different proportions of employment in different industries. For ex ample, the growth of health-related occupations is closely tied to the growth of the health services industry, but the growth of the banking industry has little direct impact on health occupations. The main causes of occupational structure changes within industries are: (a) technological change, (b) changes in business practices and methods of operation, and (c) product demand changes. Technological innovations may increase or reduce labor requirements for an occupation. For ex ample, the growing use of computer technology is expected to increase the requirements for systems analysts and com puter programmers and in nearly all industries these workers are expected to account for an increasing share of total employment during the 1984-95 period. However, require ments for typists are expected to be reduced because of the spreading use of word processing equipment and the amount of these workers is projected to decline as a proportion of employment in virtually all industries. Nevertheless, in many industries, employment of typists is expected to rise as the increase in total industry employment overrides the impact of technology. In addition to technological innovations, changes in busi ness practices and methods of operation affect the occupa tional structure of an industry. For example, the growing tendency of businesses to contract out building cleaning services will reduce the proportion of employment ac counted for by janitors and cleaners in most industries. However, the negative effect on employment of janitors of this trend will be offset by significant employment gains in the building cleaning services industry. Changes in the demand for goods and services provided by an industry will also affect its occupational struc ture. For example, the educational services industry will Detailed occupational employment trends Projections for detailed occupations having 25,000 or more workers in 1984 are presented in table 2.2 The job market over the 1984-95 period implied by these projections can be viewed from a variety of perspectives. One view indicates occupations that are expected to provide the largest numerical growth. Another view presents occupations that are expected to have the most rapid growth Or the largest percentage declines. It is also useful to view occupations from the perspective of job clusters that contain occupations concentrated in specific industrial sectors of the economy or which perform related types of activities. Within each cluster, occupations generally have wide ranges of skill oi training requirements. (Text continues on page 50) 43 Table 2. Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1984 and projected 1995 T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t (In th o u s a n d s ) 1 9 8 4 - 9 5 e m p lo y m e n t c h a n g e 19 9 5 O c c u p a tio n 198 4 N u m b e r s In th o u s a n d s P e rc e n t Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h tren d tren d tren d tren d tre n d tren d tren d tre n d tre n d 15 20 1 0 6 ,8 4 3 1 1 7 ,2 6 8 1 2 2 ,7 6 0 1 2 7 ,7 1 8 1 0 ,4 2 5 1 5 ,9 1 8 2 0 ,8 7 5 10 ............................................. 1 1 ,2 7 4 1 3 ,1 3 9 1 3 ,7 6 2 1 4 ,3 1 0 1 ,8 6 5 2 ,4 8 7 3 ,0 3 5 17 22 27 M a n a g e r ia l a n d a d m in is tr a t iv e o c c u p a t i o n s ............................................................ 8 ,8 3 3 1 0 ,2 4 7 1 0 ,7 3 9 1 1 ,1 7 6 1 ,4 1 4 1 ,9 0 6 2 ,3 4 4 16 22 27 T o t a l , all o c c u p a t i o n s ................................................................................................................................................. M a n a g e r ia l a n d m a n a g e m e n t re la te d o c c u p a tio n s E le m e n t a r y a n d s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l p r in c ip a ls a n d a s s is ta n t p r i n c i p a l s ................................................................................................................................................. 125 13 3 13 7 14 2 9 12 17 7 10 14 F o o d s e r v ic e a n d lo d g in g m a n a g e r s ........................................................................... 657 711 746 778 55 89 121 8 14 18 P u b lic a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , c h ie f e x e c u t iv e s , le g is la to r s , a n d .................................................................................................... 141 15 4 15 8 16 2 13 17 21 9 12 15 M a n a g e m e n t s u p p o r t o c c u p a t i o n s .......................................................................................... 2 ,4 4 1 2 ,8 9 2 3 ,0 2 2 3 ,1 3 3 451 581 692 18 24 28 882 1 ,1 3 5 1 ,1 8 9 1 ,2 3 5 253 307 353 29 35 40 122 129 13 1 13 4 7 10 12 6 8 10 55 58 59 61 2 4 6 4 7 10 23 g e n e ra l a d m i n i s tr a t o r s A c c o u n t a n t s a n d a u d ito r s ......................................................................................................... C o m p l ia n c e a n d e n fo r c e m e n t in s p e c t o r s , e x c e p t c o n s t r u c t i o n ....................................................................................................................................... C o n s tr u c ti o n a n d b u ild in g in s p e c t o r s ...................................................................... C o s t e s t i m a t o r s ............................................................................................................................................ 114 13 0 13 6 140 15 21 26 13 19 P e r s o n n e l s p e c ia lis ts a n d re la te d w o r k e r s 3 19 365 381 394 46 62 75 14 19 23 s e r v i c e ................................................................................................................................................. 72 90 95 98 19 23 26 26 32 37 P e r s o n n e l, t r a in i n g , a n d la b o r re la tio n s s p e c i a l i s t s .................... 19 8 223 232 240 25 34 42 13 17 21 S p e c ia l a g e n t s , i n s u r a n c e .................................................................................................... 26 29 31 32 3 5 6 12 18 23 4 18 460 482 500 43 64 83 10 15 20 23 ....................................................... E m p l o y m e n t in te r v ie w e r s , p r iv a te o r p u b lic e m p l o y m e n t P u r c h a s in g a g e n ts a n d b u y e r s .......................................................................................... P u r c h a s in g a g e n t s , e x c e p t w h o l e s a l e , re ta il, a n d fa r m p ro d u c ts ....................................................................................................................................... W h o le s a le a n d reta il b u y e r s , e x c e p t fa r m p r o d u c t s . . . . T a x e x a m in e r s , c o lle c to r s , a n d r e v e n u e a g e n t s ........................................ 18 9 216 225 232 28 36 43 15 19 229 244 258 269 15 28 39 6 12 52 50 51 51 10 0 -1 -2 - 1 -3 -3 17 -2 78 90 95 12 17 21 15 22 27 ..................................................................................... 1 ,4 6 8 1 ,8 9 6 1 ,9 8 0 2 ,0 5 1 427 5 11 582 29 35 40 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 ,3 3 1 1 ,7 3 4 1 ,8 1 1 1 ,8 7 7 403 480 546 30 36 41 A e r o n a u ti c a l a n d a s tr o n a u tic a l e n g i n e e r s ............................................................ 48 60 62 64 12 14 16 25 30 33 29 U n d e r w r i t e r s ...................................................................................................................................................... E n g in e e r s , a r c h it e c t s , a n d s u r v e y o r s E n g in e e r s ............................................................................................................................. 56 66 69 72 10 13 16 18 24 C iv il e n g i n e e r s , in c lu d in g tra ffic e n g i n e e r s ....................................................... 175 214 222 229 39 46 53 30 E le c tr ic a l a n d e le c tro n ic s e n g in e e r s C h e m ic a l e n g in e e r s 22 27 ........................................................................... 390 5 71 597 6 17 18 1 206 227 46 53 58 In d u s tr ia l e n g i n e e r s , e x c e p t s a fe t y e n g i n e e r s ............................................. 125 15 4 16 2 16 8 29 37 43 23 29 35 M e c h a n ic a l e n g in e e r s ........................................................................................................................ 237 303 3 17 329 66 81 93 28 34 39 A r c h i t e c t s , in c lu d in g la n d s c a p e a r c h i t e c t s ................................................................. 93 113 118 12 2 20 25 29 21 27 31 S u rve yo rs 44 48 50 52 4 6 8 10 14 17 .................................................. 658 886 921 951 229 263 293 35 40 45 C o m p u t e r s y s te m s a n a ly s t s , e le c tro n ic d a ta p r o c e s s i n g .................... 308 498 520 539 190 212 231 62 69 75 L i f e s c i e n t i s t s ........................................................................................................................................................... 113 126 129 13 2 13 16 19 12 14 17 54 62 64 65 8 9 11 14 17 20 25 27 27 27 2 ..................................................................................................................................................................... N a t u r a l , c o m p u t e r , a n d m a t h e m a tic a l s c ie n tis ts B io lo g ic a l s c ie n tis ts ............................................................................................................................. 2 6 7 8 M a t h e m a tic a l s c i e n t i s t s ............................................................................................................................. 51 61 63 65 10 12 13 19 23 26 P h y s ic a l s c i e n t i s t s ............................................................................................................................................ 18 6 202 209 2 16 16 24 30 9 13 16 14 F o r e s te r s a n d c o n s e r v a tio n s c i e n t i s t s ...................................................................... 2 85 90 94 97 5 9 12 5 10 ................................... 46 51 53 55 5 7 8 11 15 18 S o c ia l s c i e n t i s t s ........................................................................................................................................................... 212 44 2 19 40 8 16 18 19 21 6 33 7 14 45 226 47 26 ................................................................................................................................................................ 18 6 38 22 P s y c h o l o g i s t s ........................................................................................................................................................... 97 113 118 12 2 16 21 25 17 22 26 S o c i a l, r e c r e a tio n a l, a n d r e lig io u s w o r k e r s ...................................................................... 78 9 878 9 10 946 89 121 15 7 11 15 20 C l e r g y .................................................................................................................................................................................... C h e m is t s ................................................................................................................................................................ G e o l o g is t s , g e o p h y s i c i s t s , a n d o c e a n o g r a p h e r s E c o n o m is t s 296 303 3 15 328 7 19 32 2 6 ....................................................... 34 35 36 38 1 2 4 2 6 11 ....................................................................................................................................... 12 3 14 4 149 15 5 21 26 32 17 21 26 D i r e c t o r s , r e lig io u s a c tiv itie s a n d e d u c a t io n R e c r e a tio n w o r k e r s S o c ia l w o r k e r s ...................................................................................................................................................... L a w y e r s a n d ju d g e s ............................................................................................................................................ 335 396 4 10 425 61 75 90 18 22 27 524 6 74 70 5 73 2 15 1 18 1 208 29 35 40 ........................................ 33 39 40 41 6 7 8 18 21 24 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 490 635 665 691 145 174 200 30 36 41 7 J u d g e s , m a g i s tr a t e s , a n d o t h e r ju d ic ia l w o r k e r s La w ye rs 11 4 ,5 1 0 4 ,8 1 5 4 ,9 6 5 5 ,1 3 1 305 456 621 10 14 .............................. 1 .6 6 0 1 ,9 2 2 1 ,9 8 1 2 ,0 4 7 262 321 387 16 19 23 T e a c h e r s , p r e s c h o o l ............................................................................................................................. 278 307 3 19 330 29 41 52 10 15 19 T e a c h e r s , k in d e rg a rt e n a n d e l e m e n t a r y ................................................................. 1 ,3 8 1 1 ,6 1 5 1 ,6 6 2 1 ,7 1 6 234 281 335 17 20 24 ......................................................................................................... 1 ,0 4 5 1 ,0 6 2 1 ,0 9 3 1 ,1 2 9 17 C o lle g e a n d u n iv e r s ity f a c u l t y ......................................................................................................... 73 1 636 654 6 75 -9 6 833 864 894 T e a c h e r s , lib r a r ia n s , a n d c o u n s e l o r s ..................................................................................... T e a c h e r s , p r e s c h o o l, k in d e r g a r t e n , a n d e le m e n t a r y T e a c h e rs , s e c o n d a ry sc ho o l 86 83 -5 6 2 -1 3 5 -1 1 8 -8 117 14 7 F a r m a n d h o m e m a n a g e m e n t a d v i s o r s ................................................................. 27 23 24 25 -3 -3 -2 -1 2 -1 0 - 7 G r a d u a te a s s is ta n t s , t e a c h i n g ............................................................................................... 14 5 13 4 13 7 142 -1 2 -8 -4 -8 -6 -2 I n s t r u c t o r s , a d u lt ( n o n v o c a ti o n a l ) e d u c a tio n 13 2 16 1 O t h e r te a c h e r s a n d i n s t r u c t o r s .................................................................................................... 747 48 -7 7 16 20 16 6 171 124 13 4 13 8 14 3 9 14 19 8 11 15 L ib r a r i a n s , a r c h iv i s ts , c u r a t o r s , a n d re la te d w o r k e r s .............................. 174 18 6 19 2 19 8 12 18 24 7 10 14 L i b r a r i a n s ................................................................................................................................................................ 15 5 16 6 171 177 11 16 22 7 10 14 15 2 176 18 2 18 8 23 29 36 15 19 23 2 ,6 1 0 3 ,2 0 3 3 ,3 4 9 3 .4 8 9 594 73 9 28 34 ............................................. T e a c h e r s a n d in s t r u c t o r s , v o c a tio n a l e d u c a tio n a n d tra in in g C o u n s e lo rs ................................................................................................................................................................ H e a lth d ia g n o s in g a n d tre a tin g o c c u p a tio n s ................................................................. 29 34 12 39 22 30 31 39 40 42 8 9 879 11 24 29 34 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 15 6 18 5 19 5 203 28 39 47 18 25 30 D ie titia n s a n d n u t r i t i o n i s t s ................................................................................................................... 48 58 60 62 10 12 15 21 26 31 C h i r o p r a c t o r s ........................................................................................................................................................... D e n ti s ts 23 26 54 7 12 18 23 29 ........................................................................................................................................................... 29 35 36 38 6 8 10 20 27 34 P h a r m a c i s t s ................................................................................................................................................................ 15 1 15 8 16 6 173 7 15 22 5 10 14 P h y s i c i a n s a s s i s t a n t s .................................................................................................................................. 25 33 35 37 8 10 12 33 40 46 O p t ic ia n s , d is p e n s in g a n d m e a s u r i n g ................................................................................ O p t o m e t r is t s 42 49 51 44 10 Table 2. Continued—Civilian employment in occupationa with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1984 and projected 1995 T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t (In th o u s a n d s ) 1 9 8 4 - 9 5 e m p lo y m e n t ch an g e N u m b e r s in th o u s a n d s 19 9 5 O c c u p a tio n 198 4 P e rc e n t Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tre n d ................................................................................................................... 4 76 556 585 607 81 10 9 13 1 17 23 28 R e g is t e r e d n u r s e s ............................................................................................................................................ 1 .3 7 7 1 ,7 5 3 1 ,8 2 9 1 ,9 0 8 3 76 452 532 27 33 39 T h e r a p i s t s .................................................................................................................................................................... 225 2 76 287 299 P h y s ic ia n s a n d s u r g e o n s 51 62 74 23 28 33 O c c u p a t io n a l th e r a p is ts 25 32 33 35 7 8 9 27 31 37 P h y s ic a l th e r a p is ts 58 79 83 86 21 25 28 36 42 48 66 69 R e s p ir a to r y th e r a p is ts 9 11 15 16 21 27 47 54 55 57 6 8 10 14 17 21 40 47 48 50 7 9 10 18 22 26 1 .1 9 2 1 ,4 0 6 1 ,4 7 3 1 ,5 3 0 214 281 337 18 24 28 55 S p e e c h p a t h o lo g is t s a n d a u d i o l o g i s t s ...................................................................... V e te r in a r ia n s a n d v e te r in a r y in s p e c to r s W r i t e r s , a r t is t s , e n t e r ta in e r s , a n d a th le te s ...................................................................... 63 A r tis ts a n d c o m m e r c ia l a rtis ts 204 252 264 2 74 48 60 70 23 29 34 D e s i g n e r s , e x c e p t in te r io r d e s ig n e r s 205 239 251 261 34 46 56 17 22 27 M u s i c i a n s .................................................................................................................................................................... 19 2 208 2 17 226 16 26 35 8 13 18 P h o to g r a p h e r s a n d c a m e r a o p e r a t o r s 10 1 123 129 13 4 23 29 34 23 29 33 50 58 61 63 9 11 14 17 23 27 36 ........................................................................... P r o d u c e r s , d ir e c to r s , a c t o r s , a n d e n te r ta in e r s 95 119 12 5 13 0 24 30 35 26 32 ....................................................... 56 60 62 65 4 6 9 7 11 R e p o r te r s a n d c o r r e s p o n d e n t s .................................................................................................... 69 79 82 86 10 13 17 14 19 24 ............................................. 19 1 234 245 254 42 54 63 22 28 33 T e c h n ic ia n o c c u p a t i c n s .................................................................................................................................. 3 .0 4 9 3 ,7 7 0 3 ,9 3 5 4 ,0 8 8 720 886 1 ,0 3 9 24 29 34 H e a lth te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o l o g i s t s ................................................................................ 1 .1 8 8 1 ,3 2 9 1 ,3 8 8 1 ,4 4 7 140 19 9 259 12 17 22 21 29 P u b lic re la tio n s s p e c ia lis ts a n d p u b lic ity w r ite r s R a d io a n d T V a n n o u n c e r s a p d n e w s c a s t e r s W r ite r s a n d e d it o r s , in c lu d in g te c h n ic a l w r ite r s 76 D e n ta l h y g i e n i s t s ...................................................................................................................................... 92 98 10 2 16 22 26 16 34 E m e r g e n c y m e d ic a l t e c h n i c i a n s .......................................................................................... 47 49 50 52 2 3 5 4 7 11 L ic e n s e d p ra c tic a l n u r s e s ............................................................................................................. 602 680 70 8 73 9 78 10 6 13 7 13 18 23 236 243 254 265 18 M e d ic a l a n d c lin ic a l la b o r a t o r y t e c h n o lo g i s ts a n d 28 3 7 M e d ic a l r e c o r d s te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o l o g i s t s ........................................ 33 42 44 46 9 10 12 26 31 37 R a d i o lo g ic te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o l o g i s t s ............................................................ 115 13 5 14 1 148 20 27 33 18 23 29 20 t e c h n i c i a n s ........................................................................................................................................... 6 12 36 40 41 43 3 5 7 9 14 .................... 1 ,3 1 4 1 ,6 1 5 1 .6 8 6 1 ,7 4 7 301 3 71 433 23 28 E n g in e e r i n g t e c h n i c i a n s ................................................................................................................... 73 0 9 78 1 .0 2 2 1 ,0 5 9 248 292 329 34 40 45 C iv il e n g in e e r in g te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o l o g i s t s .............................. 58 71 74 77 13 16 19 23 28 32 404 5 79 607 629 175 202 225 43 50 56 27 32 34 35 5 7 8 20 26 31 71 23 30 37 42 S u r g ic a l te c h n ic ia n s ............................................................................................................................ E n g in e e r i n g a n d s c ie n c e te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o lo g is ts E le c tr ic a l a n d e le c tro n ic s te c h n ic ia n s a n d te c h n o lo g is ts I n d u s tr ia l e n g in e e r in g te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o lo g is ts . . . . M e c h a n ic a l e n g in e e r in g te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o lo g is ts . . 78 345 366 75 384 400 21 39 55 6 11 . 239 2 70 2 79 288 31 40 49 13 17 20 ......................... 546 826 862 894 2 79 3 15 347 51 58 64 21 25 D r a f t e r s ..................................................................................................................................................................... P h y s ic a l a n d life s c ie n c e te c h n ic ia n s a n d te c h n o lo g i s ts T e c h n i c i a n s , e x c e p t h e a lt h , e n g i n e e r in g , a n d s c ie n c e 55 .. 16 20 33 16 25 29 30 31 4 5 6 16 .............................................................................................................. 341 559 586 609 218 245 268 64 72 79 ............................................................................................................................. 53 10 0 10 4 10 8 47 51 55 90 98 10 5 T e c h n ic a l a s s is ta n t s , l i b r a r y .................................................................................................... 42 45 46 47 3 4 5 6 9 12 M a r k e tin g a n d s a le s o c c u p a t i o n s .................................................................................................... 1 1 ,1 7 3 1 2 ,6 9 7 1 3 ,3 9 3 1 3 ,9 9 0 1 ,5 2 5 2 ,2 2 0 2 ,8 1 7 14 20 25 1 ,9 0 2 2 ,3 4 3 2 ,4 6 9 2 ,5 7 9 441 566 6 77 23 30 36 B r o a d c a s t t e c h n i c i a n s ....................................................................................................................... C o m p u te r p ro g ra m m e rs P a ra le g a l p e r s o n n e l C a s h ie r s .......................................................................................................................................................................... C o u n t e r a n d re n ta l c le rk s I n s u r a n c e s a le s w o r k e r s ................................................................................................................... 96 93 98 10 1 2 5 ........................................................................................................................ 3 71 384 405 422 13 34 51 15 4 7 ’ 569 ’ 598 ’ 623 22 51 75 363 396 415 432 33 M a n u f a c t u r in g s a le s w o r k e r s ......................................................................................................... R e a l e s ta te a g e n ts a n d b r o k e r s B r o k e r s , re al e s ta te R e a l e s ta te a p p r a is e r s ............................................................................................... ............................................................................................................................. S a le s a g e n t s , re al e s ta te .............................................................................................................. -3 52 -3 2 3 4 6 9 14 9 14 69 9 14 18 43 48 50 52 5 7 9 12 16 21 320 348 365 380 28 45 60 9 14 19 22 ............................................................................................................................. 38 42 45 46 5 7 13 19 S a l e s p e r s o n s , r e t a i l ....................................................................................................................................... 2 ,7 3 2 2 ,9 1 6 3 ,0 7 5 3 ,2 1 3 18 4 343 480 7 13 18 S e c u ritie s a n d fin a n c ia l s e r v ic e s s a l e s w o r k e r s .................................................. S to c k c le r k s , s a le s f l o o r ........................................................................................................................ 81 5 74 10 7 607 113 641 118 6 70 26 32 67 36 32 33 96 6 39 12 45 17 T r a v e l a g e n t s ........................................................................................................................................................... 72 98 8 10 3 10 8 26 32 36 37 44 50 ’ 1 ,2 4 8 ' 1 ,5 3 6 ’ 1 ,6 1 7 ’ 1 ,6 8 8 288 369 440 23 30 35 .............................. 1 8 ,7 1 6 A d ju s te r s a n d i n v e s t i g a t o r s .............................................................................................................. W h o le s a le tr a d e s a le s w o r k e r s .................................................................................................... A d m in is tr a tiv e s u p p o r t o c c u p a t io n s , in c lu d in g cle ric a l 1 9 ,5 7 2 2 0 ,4 9 9 2 1 ,3 3 2 856 1 ,7 8 3 2 ,6 1 6 530 603 632 655 74 10 2 12 5 14 19 24 .................................................................................................................................. 65 74 78 81 9 13 17 14 21 26 B ill a n d a c c o u n t c o l l e c t o r s ......................................................................................................... 115 13 7 14 4 15 0 22 28 34 19 25 30 I n s u r a n c e a d ju s te r s , e x a m in e r s , a n d in v e s tig a to r s 13 4 15 8 166 171 24 32 38 18 24 28 I n s u r a n c e c la im s a n d p o lic y p r o c e s s in g c l e r k s ........................................ 12 5 13 2 13 8 14 3 7 13 18 A d ju s t m e n t c le r k s 5 10 14 6 11 .................................................. 59 68 69 71 8 10 12 14 17 20 C o m m u n i c a t io n s e q u i p m e n t o p e r a t o r s ........................................................................... 472 535 561 585 62 89 113 13 19 24 T e l e p h o n e o p e r a t o r s ............................................................................................................................. 89 112 W e lfa r e e lig ib ility w o r k e r s a n d in te r v ie w e r s 15 456 5 19 545 568 C e n tr a l o ffic e o p e r a t o r s 77 64 68 71 -1 2 -9 -6 -1 6 -1 1 - 7 D i r e c t o r y a s s is ta n c e o p e r a t o r s 32 28 30 31 -4 -2 -1 -1 2 - 7 -3 63 14 19 25 347 426 447 466 79 10 0 118 23 29 . . . . 3 11 434 454 4 72 12 2 14 3 16 1 39 46 C o m p u t e r o p e r a t o r s , e x c e p t p e rip h e ra l e q u i p m e n t .............................. 241 337 353 366 96 111 125 40 46 52 70 97 10 2 10 6 27 32 36 38 45 51 21 S w it c h b o a r d o p e r a t o r s .............................................................................................................. C o m p u t e r o p e r a t o r s a n d p e rip h e ra l e q u i p m e n t o p e r a t o r s P e r ip h e r a l E D P e q u i p m e n t o p e r a t o r s 34 52 D u p l ic a t in g , m a i l, a n d o t h e r o ffic e m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s ......................... 15 3 170 178 18 5 17 25 32 11 17 F in a n c ia l r e c o rd s p r o c e s s in g o c c u p a t i o n s ................................................................. 2 ,6 2 9 2 ,6 7 6 2 ,8 1 2 2 ,9 2 9 47 18 3 300 2 7 11 B illin g , c o s t , a n d rate c l e r k s .................................................................................................... 2 16 240 254 265 25 38 49 11 18 23 B illi n g , p o s t in g , a n d c a lc u la tin g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s ......................... 234 258 272 283 25 38 50 118 205 B o o k k e e p i n g , a c c o u n t i n g , a n d a u d itin g c le rk s 11 16 21 ........................................ 1 ,9 7 3 1 ,9 9 0 2 ,0 9 1 2 ,1 7 8 17 .......................................................................................... 207 18 8 19 6 204 -2 0 I n f o r m a t io n c l e r k s ........................................................................................................................................... 73 7 810 855 894 72 117 15 7 10 16 21 H o te l d e s k c l e r k s ....................................................................................................................................... 99 10 9 116 12 2 10 17 23 10 17 23 P a y r o ll a n d tim e k e e p in g c le rk s 45 -1 1 -4 1 -1 0 6 -5 10 -2 Table 2. Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 2 5 , 0 0 0 workers or more, actual 1984 and projected T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t (In th o u s a n d s ) 19 9 5 O c c u p a tio n 19 8 4 N e w a c c o u n ts c l e r k s , b a n k in g .......................................................................................... R e c e p t io n is t s a n d in fo r m a ti o n c le r k s ...................................................................... 19 9 5 1 9 8 4 - 9 5 e m p lo y m e n t ch a n g e N u m b e r s In th o u s a n d s P e rc e n t Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h Low M o d e r a te H ig h tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tre n d 72 78 82 85 6 10 14 9 14 19 458 5 12 542 566 54 83 10 8 12 18 24 6 11 R e s e r v a t io n a n d tr a n s p o r ta ti o n tic k e t a g e n ts a n d tra v e l c l e r k s ........................................................................................................................................................... M a il a n d m e s s a g e d is t r ib u t io n w o r k e r s ...................................................................... 10 9 111 116 121 802 75 7 79 6 842 3 -4 5 7 -5 12 2 40 - 1 -6 5 M a il c l e r k s , e x c e p t m a ilin g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d p o s ta l s e r v ic e ....................................................................................................................................................... M esse n g e rs ...................................................................................................................................................... 13 6 13 5 140 14 4 -2 3 67 74 78 81 ............................................................................................................................. 281 273 389 308 -8 P o s t a l s e r v ic e c l e r k s ............................................................................................................................. 3 17 274 290 309 -4 3 -2 7 P o s t a l m a il c a r rie r s 7 8 10 14 8 27 -1 10 3 6 16 20 3 10 -3 -8 -1 3 -9 -3 M a te ria l r e c o r d i n g , s c h e d u l in g , d is p a t c h in g , a n d d is tr ib u tin g ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 ,4 1 7 2 ,4 2 6 2 ,5 4 5 2 ,6 5 0 10 12 8 234 0 5 10 ................................................................................................................................................................ 203 225 235 243 22 32 40 11 16 20 D i s p a t c h e r s , e x c e p t p o li c e , fir e , a n d a m b u l a n c e ................................... 14 4 16 1 169 176 17 25 32 12 17 22 D i s p a t c h e r s , p o lic e , f ir e , a n d a m b u l a n c e ............................................................ 59 63 65 67 5 6 8 8 11 14 M e te r r e a d e r s , u t i l i t i e s ............................................................................................................................. 50 51 53 55 1 3 5 1 6 10 o c c u p a tio n s D is p a tc h e rs O r d e r f ille r s , w h o le s a le a n d reta il s a le s P r o c u r e m e n t c le rk s ...................................................................... ....................................................................................................................................... P r o d u c t i o n , p la n n i n g , a n d e x p e d itin g c le r k s ........................................................ 226 208 2 19 229 -1 8 - 7 3 53 56 58 60 3 5 7 2 14 222 233 242 9 19 29 -8 ' 1 -3 6 10 14 4 9 13 9 14 10 .................................................. 78 8 73 4 772 805 -5 4 .................................................................. 651 6 76 711 742 26 61 91 4 37 37 39 41 0 2 4 0 5 ............................................. 893 957 1 ,0 0 1 1 ,0 4 0 63 10 7 146 7 12 16 B r o k e r a g e c l e r k s ................................................................................................................................................. 29 33 35 37 4 6 7 13 20 25 289 282 S to c k c le rk s , s to c k r o o m , w a re h o u s e , o r y a rd T r a f f i c , s h i p p in g , a n d re c e iv in g c le rk s W e i g h e r s , m e a s u r e r s , c h e c k e r s , a n d s a m p l e r s , re c o rd k e e p in g R e c o r d s p r o c e s s in g o c c u p a t io n s , e x c e p t fin a n c ia l F ile c le r k s ..................................................................................................................................................................... 296 308 -1 6 - 7 7 17 - 7 19 -2 -2 2 7 2 ............................................................ 122 13 0 13 4 13 9 9 12 17 7 10 14 O r d e r c le r k s , m a t e r ia l, m e r c h a n d is e , a n d s e r v i c e ........................................ 297 337 355 3 70 40 57 73 13 19 25 L i b r a r y a s s is ta n t s a n d b o o k m o b i le d r iv e r s P e r s o n n e l c l e r k s , e x c e p t p a y r o ll a n d t i m e k e e p i n g ........................................ 10 8 12 3 12 7 13 1 14 13 17 21 37 39 41 42 2 19 4 22 S ta te m e n t c l e r k s ................................................................................................................................................. 6 6 11 16 S e c r e t a r ie s , s t e n o g r a p h e r s , a n d t y p i s t s ................................................................................ 4 ,0 2 7 4 ,0 2 7 4 ,2 0 9 4 ,3 7 2 0 18 2 345 0 5 2 ,7 9 7 2 ,9 2 8 3 ,0 6 4 3 ,1 8 6 13 1 268 239 13 8 14 3 14 8 -1 0 2 -9 6 S e c r e t a r i e s ..................................................................................................................................................................... S te n o g r a p h e r s T y p is t s ...................................................................................................................................................... -3 991 962 1 ,0 0 2 1 ,0 3 8 -2 9 11 47 5 ,7 4 4 6 ,1 7 7 6 ,4 5 5 6 ,7 0 7 433 711 963 41 7 1 5 12 17 C o u r t c l e r k s ................................................................................................................................................................ 33 9 19 23 26 34 41 43 44 7 9 10 21 26 31 92 10 3 10 8 113 11 16 21 12 18 23 ........................................................................... 324 3 19 334 347 .................................................................................................................................. 2 ,3 9 8 2 ,5 1 1 2 ,6 2 9 2 ,7 3 4 D a ta e n t r y k e y e r s , e x c e p t c o m p o s in g L o a n a n d c r e d it c le rk s S ta tis tic a l c le r k s ............................................................................................................................. .................................................................................................... ............................................ T e a c h e r a id e s a n d e d u c a tio n a l a s s is ta n ts T e lle r s ................................................................. ............................................................................................................................................................................... S e r v ic e o c c u p a tio n s ............................................................................................................................................ B u ild in g s e r v ic e o c c u p a tio n s ......................................................................................................... 12 3 14 4 13 7 15 0 93 78 81 84 479 548 566 586 6 14 -3 8 C u s t o m e r s e r v ic e r e p r e s e n t a t iv e s , u tilitie s G e n e ra l o ffic e c le r k s 42 8 9 10 -4 0 C r e d i t c h e c k e r s ...................................................................................................................................................... ............................................................ 40 5 -4 2 ............................................. ............................................................................................................................................................................... O t h e r c le ric a l a n d a d m in is tr a t iv e s u p p o r t w o r k e r s 389 -9 2 -5 113 14 -1 5 70 -1 10 23 231 336 21 -1 2 5 27 -9 86 -2 11 -1 6 10 7 15 3 7 10 14 17 -1 3 18 22 -9 22 493 492 5 17 539 24 47 0 5 9 1 6 ,5 8 2 1 8 ,8 9 1 1 9 ,7 2 8 2 0 ,5 4 8 2 ,3 0 9 3 ,1 4 7 3 ,9 6 6 14 19 24 2 ,9 8 1 3 ,2 7 4 3 ,4 2 5 3 ,5 6 6 293 444 584 10 15 20 2 ,9 4 0 41 3 ,2 3 3 41 3 ,3 8 3 293 443 582 10 15 20 42 3 ,5 2 2 44 0 1 3 6 ,6 3 7 7 ,7 7 2 8 ,1 3 0 8 ,4 9 0 1 ,1 3 5 1 ,4 9 3 1 ,8 5 3 J a n i t o r s a n d c le a n e r s , in c lu d in g m a id s a n d h o u s e k e e p in g c le a n e r s ................................................................................................................................................. P e s t c o n tr o lle r s a n d a s s i s t a n t s ............................................................................................... F o o d a n d b e v e r a g e p r e p a r e r s a n d s e r v ic e o c c u p a tio n s .............................. - 1 17 3 7 23 28 ................................................................................................................... 68 76 80 84 9 13 17 13 19 25 B a r t e n d e r s ..................................................................................................................................................................... 400 489 5 12 535 89 112 13 5 22 28 34 884 1 ,0 5 0 16 5 2 10 256 B a k e r s , b re a d a n d p a s t r y 421 478 1 ,0 9 5 494 1 ,1 4 0 C o o k s , in s titu tio n a l o r c a f e t e r i a .......................................................................................... 5 12 57 73 91 13 17 22 C o o k s , r e s t a u r a n t ....................................................................................................................................... 463 5 72 601 628 10 9 13 8 16 4 23 36 23 30 C o o k s , e x c e p t s h o r t o r d e r ................................................................................................................... C o o k s , s h o r t o r d e r a n d s p e c ia lty fa s t f o o d ............................................................ D i n in g r o o m a n d c a fe te ria a tte n d a n t s a n d b a r r o o m h e lp e r s . . 19 24 96 12 30 17 307 364 381 399 56 74 91 18 24 1 ,4 1 7 1 ,4 8 1 15 2 215 279 425 4 76 499 521 51 74 29 ....................................................... 1 ,2 0 1 987 1 ,3 5 4 1 ,1 5 5 1 ,2 0 5 1 ,2 5 8 16 9 2 19 271 17 22 28 H o s t s a n d h o s t e s s e s , r e s ta u r a n t, l o u n g e , a n d c o ffe e s h o p . . . 13 2 160 16 8 176 29 36 44 22 28 34 W a ite r s a n d w a i t r e s s e s ............................................................................................................................. 1 ,6 2 5 1 ,9 5 3 2 ,0 4 9 2 ,1 4 2 329 424 5 17 20 26 32 1 ,6 6 6 2 ,0 8 0 2 ,1 6 4 2 ,2 5 9 4 15 498 593 25 30 D e n ta l a s s i s t a n t s ................................................................................................................................................. 169 204 217 226 35 48 57 20 28 34 M e d ic a l a s s i s t a n t s ............................................................................................................................................ 12 8 19 5 207 2 16 67 79 88 53 62 69 F o o d p r e p a r a tio n a n d s e r v ic e w o r k e r s , fa s t f o o d F o o d p r e p a r a t io n w o r k e r s , e x c e p t fa s t f o o d H e a lt h s e r v ic e a n d re la te d o c c u p a tio n s ................................... ................................................................................ 13 18 23 36 ................................................................................ 1 ,2 6 8 1 ,5 6 7 1 ,6 2 1 1 ,6 9 3 299 353 424 24 28 33 N u r s i n g a i d e s , o r d e r li e s , a n d a t t e n d a n t s ............................................................ 1 ,2 0 4 1 ,5 0 1 1 ,5 5 2 1 ,6 2 1 297 348 4 16 25 29 35 ....................................................................................................................................... 64 66 69 72 2 5 8 3 8 13 .................................................................................................................................. 37 42 43 45 4 6 8 12 17 22 N u r s i n g a id e s a n d p s y c h ia t r ic a id e s P s y c h ia tr ic a id e s P h a r m a c y a s s is ta n t s .................... 33 40 42 44 7 9 11 23 28 35 .............................................................................................................. 1 ,5 7 4 1 ,7 8 2 1 ,8 7 0 1 ,9 5 0 208 295 3 75 13 19 24 A m u s e m e n t a n d re c re a tio n a t t e n d a n t s ........................................................................... 14 9 18 1 18 9 19 6 32 39 46 21 26 31 P h y s ic a l a n d c o rr e c tio n a l t h e r a p y a s s is ta n t s a n d a id e s P e r s o n a l s e r v ic e o c c u p a tio n s .................................................................................................... 31 31 33 35 0 2 4 1 7 12 B a r b e r s ............................................................................................................................................................................... 94 94 98 10 4 0 4 9 0 4 10 24 55 80 4 116 15 0 18 0 22 29 34 13 17 20 26 28 33 15 24 29 34 4 6 5 9 B a g g a g e p o r te r s a n d b e llh o p s 626 639 6 74 651 70 4 F li g h t a t t e n d a n t s ................................................................................................................................................. 64 74 77 81 S o c ia l w e lfa r e s e r v ic e a i d e s .............................................................................................................. 98 122 126 13 2 10 24 U s h e r s , l o b b y a t t e n d a n t s , a n d tic k e t t a k e r s ............................................................ 42 44 46 48 2 P r iv a t e h o u s e h o l d w o r k e r s ........................................................................................................................ 993 778 811 840 46 -2 15 -1 8 2 -1 5 3 V 596 524 ....................................................................................................................................... CVJ CVJ 5 72 ................................................................................ C h ild c a re w o r k e r s C o s m e t o l o g is t s a n d re la te d w o r k e r s 10 -1 8 14 13 -1 5 Table 2. Continued—Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1984 and projected 1995 T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t (In th o u s a n d s ) N u m b e r s In th o u s a n d s 19 9 5 O c c u p a tio n 198 4 P e rc e n t Low M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h tren d tren d trend tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d 1 ,9 2 4 2 ,2 2 7 2 ,3 0 6 2 ,3 7 9 303 382 455 16 20 24 .................................................................................................... 13 0 171 175 18 0 41 45 50 31 35 38 P r o t e c t iv e s e rv ic e o c c u p a t i o n s .............................................................................................................. C o r r e c tio n o ffic e r s a n d ja ile rs 1 9 8 4 - 9 5 e m p lo y m e n t ch an g e ........................................................................................................................ 308 347 356 365 39 48 57 13 16 F i r e f i g h t e r s ........................................................................................................................................................... 243 2 73 280 287 31 38 45 13 16 18 F ir e fig h tin g a n d p r e v e n tio n s u p e r v i s o r s ................................................................. 57 64 66 68 8 9 11 13 16 20 F ir e fig h tin g o c c u p a tio n s 19 520 5 72 586 600 51 66 80 10 13 15 ..................................................................................... 10 4 113 116 118 9 12 15 9 11 14 P o lic e d e te c tiv e s a n d i n v e s t i g a t o r s ................................................................................ 64 69 70 71 5 6 7 8 10 11 P o lic e p a tr o l o f f i c e r s ............................................................................................................................. 353 390 400 4 11 37 48 58 10 13 17 P o lic e a n d d e te c tiv e s .................................................................................................................................. P o lic e a n d d e te c tiv e s u p e r v is o r s ................................................................................................................................................. 75 80 82 84 4 7 9 6 9 12 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 73 3 879 921 958 146 18 8 225 20 26 31 3 ,5 5 4 3 ,2 9 1 3 ,4 4 7 3 ,5 6 7 -2 6 4 -1 0 8 82 75 78 81 - 7 -4 740 79 8 830 857 58 90 117 8 12 16 69 78 81 83 9 12 14 13 17 20 699 727 75 2 C ro s s in g g u a rd s G u a rd s A g r ic u ltu r e , f o r e s tr y , fis h in g , a n d r e la te d o c c u p a tio n s 12 - 7 -3 -8 -5 0 S u p e r v i s o r s , f a r m i n g , f o r e s t r y , a n d a g r ic u ltu r e re la te d o c c u p a tio n s ...................................................................................................................................................... A g r i c u ltu r e re la te d o c c u p a tio n s ......................................................................................................... A n im a l c a r e ta k e r s , e x c e p t fa r m ............................................................................................... -1 -2 49 77 F a r m w o r k e r s ...................................................................................................................................................... 1 ,0 7 9 9 11 958 988 -1 6 8 -1 2 1 -9 1 -1 6 -1 1 -8 F a rm e rs an d fa rm m a n a g e rs 1 ,4 4 2 1 ,3 1 5 1 ,3 8 0 1 ,4 3 2 -1 2 7 -6 2 -1 1 -9 -4 - 1 G a r d e n e r s a n d g r o u n d s k e e p e r s , e x c e p t f a r m ....................................................... ......................................................................................................... 650 F is h e r s , h u n t e r s , a n d t r a p p e r s .................................................................................................... 46 42 44 47 -4 -2 F o r e s tr y a n d lo g g in g o c c u p a t i o n s .......................................................................................... 13 5 119 125 13 1 -1 6 -1 0 10 2 1 -4 8 12 -9 -4 -1 2 - 7 16 2 -3 ......................................................................................................... 1 ,4 7 0 1 ,4 8 1 1 ,5 5 5 1 ,6 2 2 11 85 15 2 1 6 C o n s tr u c ti o n t r a d e s ................................................................................................................................................. 3 ,3 4 7 3 ,5 8 3 3 ,7 4 3 3 ,8 7 7 236 396 530 7 12 16 .................................................................................................... 140 148 15 5 16 1 8 15 20 5 11 15 C a r p e n t e r s .................................................................................................................................................................... 944 B lu e -c o lla r w o r k e r s u p e r v is o r s B r ic k la y e r s a n d s to n e m a s o n s C a r p e t in s ta lle rs 998 1 ,0 4 6 1 ,0 8 5 54 10 1 140 71 78 82 86 8 11 15 11 16 21 ............................................. 25 28 29 29 3 4 5 11 15 18 ................................................................................................................................................. C e ilin g tile in s ta lle rs a n d a c o u s tic a l c a r p e n te rs 10 6 11 15 ............................................................................................... 10 6 118 12 3 127 12 17 21 12 16 20 D r y w a ll in s ta lle rs a n d f i n i s h e r s .................................................................................................... 10 6 112 117 121 6 11 15 6 11 14 D r y w a ll i n s t a l l e r s ....................................................................................................................................... 62 65 69 71 4 7 10 6 12 31 33 34 35 2 3 4 8 11 14 545 606 633 657 61 88 112 11 16 20 25 C o n c r e t e a n d te r r a z z o fin is h e rs T a p e rs .......................................................................................................................................................................... E le c tr ic ia n s ............................................................................................................................................................... 16 G la z ie r s ............................................................................................................................................................................... 37 43 45 46 6 8 9 15 21 H a r d tile s e tte r s ................................................................................................................................................. 25 27 28 29 2 3 4 9 12 H ig h w a y m a in te n a n c e w o r k e r s .................................................................................................... 143 14 7 15 1 15 5 4 8 12 3 6 9 In s u la tio n w o r k e r s ............................................................................................................................................ 52 57 59 61 5 7 9 9 14 17 .............................................................................................................. 3 78 3 78 395 409 0 17 31 0 4 8 P ip e la y e r s a n d p ip e la y in g f i t t e r s ............................................................................................... 48 54 56 58 5 7 9 11 15 19 P l u m b e r s , p ip e fitt e rs , a n d s t e a m f i t t e r s ........................................................................... 395 472 42 R o o f e r s ............................................................................................................................................................................... P a in te r s a n d p a p e r h a n g e r s 14 436 455 61 77 12 2 13 2 13 8 143 10 16 21 8 13 17 ................................................................. 86 98 10 2 10 6 12 16 19 14 18 22 R e in f o r c in g m e ta l w o r k e r s ......................................................................................................... 35 39 41 42 5 7 8 14 19 22 7 13 18 22 S tr u c tu r a l a n d r e in fo rc in g m e ta l w o r k e r s S tr u c tu r a l m e ta l w o r k e r s 11 15 20 .............................................................................................................. 52 59 61 63 9 12 E x tr a c ti v e a n d re la te d w o r k e r s , in c lu d in g b l a s t e r e r s ........................................ 175 170 178 18 4 -5 2 8 -3 1 5 R o u s t a b o u t s ................................................................................................................................................................ 81 77 81 84 -4 0 3 -5 0 3 M e c h a n i c s , in s ta lle rs , a n d r e p a i r e r s .......................................................................................... 4 ,3 9 1 4 ,8 0 6 5 ,0 3 8 5 ,2 4 7 647 855 9 15 19 4 8 7 13 18 4 14 C o m m u n i c a t io n s e q u i p m e n t m e c h a n ic s , in s ta lla tio n , a n d r e p a i r ..................................................................................................................................................................... 73 72 76 79 C e n tr a l o ffic e a n d P B X in s ta lle rs a n d r e p a i r e r s ........................................ 39 42 44 46 -1 503 530 557 580 27 53 76 5 11 15 50 74 78 81 24 28 31 49 56 63 25 3 3 6 5 7 -2 E le c tr ic a l a n d e le c tro n ic e q u i p m e n t m e c h a n ic s , in s ta lle rs , a n d r e p a i r e r s ........................................................................................................................................................... D a ta p r o c e s s in g e q u i p m e n t re p a ire rs ...................................................................... E le c tr ic m o t o r , t r a n s f o r m e r , a n d re la te d r e p a i r e r s .............................. 52 56 59 31 62 4 4 5 7 10 15 7 21 E le c tr o n ic h o m e e n t e r ta in m e n t e q u i p m e n t r e p a i r e r s ......................... 13 19 E le c tr o n ic s r e p a ire rs , c o m m e r c ia l a n d in d u s tr ia l e q u i p m e n t 56 25 62 28 64 30 65 8 10 11 14 -2 2 -1 7 18 -1 4 6 S ta tio n in s ta lle rs a n d r e p a ire rs , t e l e p h o n e ....................................................... 111 87 92 96 6 -2 4 T e l e p h o n e a n d c a b le T V lin e in s ta lle rs a n d re p a ire rs 18 3 19 3 202 2 11 10 20 28 5 11 15 . . 1 ,4 5 2 1 ,5 5 9 1 ,6 3 2 1 ,7 0 2 10 6 179 250 7 12 17 ..................................................................................... 430 443 464 483 13 34 54 3 27 29 30 31 2 3 4 6 .................... M a c h in e r y a n d re la te d m e c h a n ic s , in s ta lle rs , a n d re p a ire rs I n d u s tr ia l m a c h in e r y m e c h a n ic s M a c h in e r y m a in t e n a n c e m e c h a n ic s , m a r in e e q u ip m e n t M a c h in e r y m a in t e n a n c e m e c h a n ic s , te x tile m a c h in e -1 9 -4 -1 5 26 21 22 23 p la n t . . . , ............................................................................................................................................ M a c h in e r y m a in te n a n c e w o r k e r s .................................................. 32 34 36 37 2 3 5 61 61 64 67 0 3 M a i n t e n a n c e r e p a i r e r s , g e n e r a l u t i l i t y .................................................. -5 -3 -1 9 8 11 -1 5 12 15 -1 0 M a c h in e r y m a in te n a n c e m e c h a n ic s , w a t e r a n d p o w e r 10 6 5 1 5 15 10 878 9 70 1 ,0 1 5 1 ,0 5 7 92 13 7 179 10 16 20 ........................................................................................................................................... 84 85 89 95 1 6 11 1 7 13 V e h ic le a n d m o b ile e q u i p m e n t m e c h a n ic s a n d r e p a i r e r s .................... 1 ,5 7 7 1 ,7 8 6 1 ,8 7 4 1 ,9 5 1 209 297 3 74 13 19 24 10 6 12 2 12 5 128 15 18 22 14 17 21 M illw r ig h ts A ir c r a f t m e c h a n ic s a n d e n g in e s p e c ia lis ts ....................................................... ................................................................. 18 3 204 2 15 224 21 32 41 18 22 A u t o m o t i v e a n d m o t o r c y c l e m e c h a n i c s ................................................................. 922 1 ,0 5 2 1 ,1 0 7 1 ,1 5 4 13 1 18 5 232 14 20 B u s a n d tr u c k m e c h a n ic s a n d d ie s e l e n g in e s p e c ia lis ts 2 11 246 259 2 70 36 48 59 17 23 25 28 .................... 77 86 89 92 R a il c a r r e p a i r e r s ....................................................................................................................................... 27 20 21 22 A u t o m o t i v e b o d y a n d re la te d re p a ire rs M o b ile h e a v y e q u i p m e n t m e c h a n ic s , e x c e p t e n g in e s S m a ll e n g in e s p e c ia lis ts . . . .............................................................................................................. O t h e r m e c h a n ic s , in s ta lle rs , a n d re p a ire rs ............................................................ C o in a n d v e n d in g m a c h in e s e r v ic e rs a n d re p a ire rs ......................... 9 12 - 7 -6 ' 15 -5 11 12 15 -2 5 -2 2 19 -1 8 33 36 38 40 4 6 8 12 17 78 6 859 899 935 73 114 15 0 9 14 19 33 36 38 40 3 5 7 9 15 20 173 19 4 203 12 17 21 92 20 4 37 87 210 97 29 83 9 14 5 11 16 23 H e a t in g , a ir c o n d it io n in g , a n d re fr ig e r a tio n m e c h a n ic s a n d in s ta lle rs ................................................................................................................................................ H o m e a p p lia n c e a n d p o w e r to o l re p a ire rs ....................................................... 47 Table 2. Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1984 and projected 1995 T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t (In th o u s a n d s ) 1 9 8 4 - 9 5 e m p lo y m e n t ch a n g e 19 9 5 O c c u p a tio n 19 8 4 O f fi c e m a c h in e a n d c a s h re g is te r s e r v ic e rs N u m b e r s In th o u s a n d s P e rc e n t Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h Lo w M o d e r a te H ig h tren d tren d tre n d tren d tren d tre n d tre n d tre n d tre n d 35 .................................................. 53 65 68 71 13 16 19 24 30 .......................................................................................... 57 63 65 68 5 8 11 9 14 19 .................................................................................................... 85 91 96 10 0 6 11 15 7 13 18 P r e c is io n p r o d u c t io n o c c u p a t i o n s .................................................................................................... 2 ,8 5 4 2 ,9 9 2 3 ,1 4 0 3 ,2 6 6 13 8 287 412 10 14 280 293 304 -2 2 -9 47 50 52 -1 -1 8 P r e c is io n in s tr u m e n t r e p a ire rs T ir e r e p a ire rs a n d c h a n g e r s P r e c is io n f o o d w o r k e r s ............................................................................................................................. B a k e r s , m a n u f a c tu r i n g ................................................................................................................... 302 48 2 5 2 - 7 4 -1 3 ......................................................................................................... 222 203 2 13 220 -9 -1 ........................................................................................................................ 944 995 1 ,0 4 4 1 ,0 8 4 52 10 0 141 5 B o i l e r m a k e r s ....................................................................................................................................................... 38 40 41 43 2 4 6 6 J e w e l e r s a n d s il v e r s m it h s 32 33 35 37 1 3 5 B u t c h e r s a n d m e a tc u tt e r s P r e c is io n m e ta l w o r k e r s ......................................................................................................... 1 -3 -8 -4 7 -1 11 15 10 15 8 14 2 ........................................................................................................................................................... 354 3 72 391 407 18 37 53 5 10 15 S h e e t m e ta l w o r k e r s .............................................................................................................................. 232 254 265 274 22 33 41 9 14 18 M a c h in is t s T o o l a n d d ie m a k e r s .............................................................................................................................. 16 5 172 18 1 18 8 8 16 23 5 10 14 P r e c is io n p r in tin g w o r k e r s .................................................................................................................... 113 125 129 13 4 12 16 21 10 14 18 C o m p o s i t o r s , ty p e s e t t e r s , a n d a r r a n g e r s , p r e c i s i o n ......................... 37 39 41 42 2 4 5 7 10 14 L it h o g r a p h y a n d p h o t o e n g r a v i n g w o r k e r s , p r e c is io n .................... 45 51 53 55 6 7 9 12 17 21 P r e c is io n t e x ti le , a p p a r e l, a n d fu r n i s h in g s w o r k e r s ................................... 266 259 2 73 284 C u s t o m ta ilo r s a n d s e w e r s ......................................................................................................... 127 13 3 141 146 43 34 35 37 S h o e a n d le a th e r w o r k e r s a n d r e p a ir e r s , p r e c is io n ......................... - 7 7 6 -1 0 13 -8 18 -3 19 - 7 7 3 5 -2 3 10 -1 9 15 -1 5 U p h o l s t e r e r s ....................................................................................................................................................... 63 66 69 72 3 6 10 14 19 9 2 19 231 241 20 32 9 41 5 P r e c is io n w o o d w o r k e r s .............................................................................................................................. 10 16 21 99 113 118 12 3 24 13 19 24 C a b in e tm a k e r s a n d b e n c h c a r p e n te rs 13 19 ................................................................................................................................... 34 35 37 39 1 4 5 4 10 16 ............................................................................................................................................ 45 49 52 54 4 7 9 9 15 19 F u r n i tu r e f in is h e rs W o o d m a c h in is t s ...................................................................... I n s p e c to r s a n d re la te d o c c u p a t i o n s ..................................................................................... I n s p e c to r s , t e s t e r s , a n d g r a d e r s , p r e c is io n .................................................. O t h e r p r o d u c t io n in s p e c t o r s , te s te r s , g r a d e r s , a n d s o r te rs O t h e r p r e c is io n w o r k e r s ........................................................................................................................ 689 73 2 802 43 80 113 6 12 16 254 288 302 3 15 34 49 61 14 19 24 435 444 467 487 9 31 52 2 7 12 381 401 4 17 41 60 77 12 18 23 340 76 9 ............................................................ 51 57 61 64 6 10 13 11 19 25 ....................................................... 25 30 32 33 5 7 8 21 27 32 M a c h in e s e t te r s , s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , o p e r a t o r s a n d t e n d e r s .................... 5 .5 5 3 5 .4 7 2 5 .7 4 8 5 ,9 9 6 -8 1 19 6 443 57 70 74 77 14 17 20 29 33 D e n ta l la b o r a t o r y t e c h n ic ia n s , p r e c is io n P h o t o g r a p h ic p r o c e s s w o r k e r s , p r e c is io n -1 4 8 30 35 27 31 N u m e r ic a l c o n tr o l m a c h in e to o l o p e r a t o r s a n d t e n d e r s , m e ta l a n d p la s tic ................................................................................................................................................. 24 C o m b in a t io n m a c h in e to o l s e t te r s , s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s . o p e r a t o r s , a n d t e n d e r s .............................................................................................................. 10 8 13 1 13 6 14 1 23 846 779 820 857 -6 6 64 61 64 67 -3 28 24 25 27 -4 22 M a c h in e to o l c u ttin g a n d fo r m in g s e t te r s , o p e r a t o r s , a n d te n d e r s , m e ta l a n d p la s tic ............................................................................................... -2 6 12 -8 1 -3 D r illin g m a c h in e to o l s e tte r s a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , m e ta l a n d p l a s t i c ............................................................................................................................................. 0 2 - 5 4 0 E x t r u d i n g a n d d r a w in g m a c h in e s e tte r s a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , m e ta l a n d p la s tic ................................................................................ -1 -3 -1 4 -9 -1 -2 G r in d in g m a c h in e s e tte r s a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , m e ta l a n d p l a s t i c ............................................................................................................................................................ 95 89 94 98 -5 0 3 -5 98 93 98 10 2 -5 0 4 -5 171 15 7 16 5 173 -1 5 - 7 1 -9 -4 170 15 5 16 3 170 -1 6 -8 -9 - 4 0 35 34 35 37 -2 1 -5 0 4 3 L a t h e m a c h in e to o l s e tte r s a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , m e ta l a n d p l a s t i c ............................................................................................................................................................ M a c h in e f o r m in g o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s , m e ta l a n d p la s tic 4 0 1 M a c h in e to o l c u ttin g o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s , m e ta l a n d p l a s t i c ............................................................................................................................................................ -1 M illin g m a c h in e s e tte r s a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , m e ta l a n d p l a s t i c ............................................................................................................................................................ 0 P r e s s m a c h in e s e tte r s a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , m e ta l a n d 48 45 47 49 -4 -2 0 -8 -3 1 63 58 61 64 -5 -2 1 -8 -3 1 ............................................................................................................................................................ 19 2 220 231 240 28 39 49 15 20 25 M e ta l f a b r ic a t o r s , s tru c tu r a l m e ta l p r o d u c t s .................................................. 44 51 53 55 7 10 11 17 22 26 p l a s t i c ............................................................................................... ............................................................ P u n c h in g m a c h in e s e tte r s a n d s e t - u p o p e r a t o r s , m e ta l a n d p la s tic ............................................................................................................................................................ M e ta l fa b r ic a tin g m a c h in e s e t te r s , o p e r a t o r s , a n d re la te d w o rk e rs W e ld in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , te n d e r s , s e t te r s , a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s ................................................................................................................................................. 13 0 14 9 15 7 16 3 19 26 33 14 20 25 304 342 362 382 39 58 79 13 19 26 48 55 58 60 6 9 12 13 19 25 M e ta l a n d p la s tic p r o c e s s m a c h in e s e t te r s , o p e r a t o r s , a n d re la te d w o r k e r s .................................................................................................................................. E le c tr ic p la tin g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , te n d e r s , s e t te r s , a n d s e t - u p o p e r a t o r s , m e ta l a n d p l a s t i c ............................................................ M e ta l m o l d in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , t e n d e r s , s e t te r s , a n d s e t 37 38 40 42 0 3 5 1 7 12 ........................................................................................................................ 14 4 175 18 5 195 31 42 52 22 29 36 P r i n t i n g , b i n d i n g , a n d re la te d w o r k e r s ........................................................................... 407 443 461 4 78 36 u p o p e r a t o r s ....................................................................................................................................... P la s t ic m o l d in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , t e n d e r s , s e t te r s , a n d s e t-u p o p e ra to rs 71 9 13 18 70 79 82 86 9 13 16 14 18 23 222 239 248 257 17 26 35 7 12 16 . . 69 76 78 81 6 9 12 9 13 17 .............................. 113 123 128 13 3 10 15 20 9 14 18 T y p e s e ttin g a n d c o m p o s in g m a c h in e o p e ra to rs a n d te n d e rs . . 36 38 39 41 2 4 5 6 10 14 T e x til e a n d re la te d s e t te r s , o p e r a t o r s , a n d re la te d w o r k e r s . . . 1 ,4 2 2 1 ,1 9 0 1 ,2 5 3 1 ,3 1 0 -2 3 2 12 5 13 4 141 14 8 B i n d e r y m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , s e t te r s , a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s P r in ti n g p r e s s o p e r a t o r s .............................................................................................................. O f f s e t lith o g r a p h ic p r e s s s e tte r s a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s P r in tin g p r e s s m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s 54 -1 6 9 -1 1 3 -1 6 -1 2 -8 L a u n d r y a n d d r y c le a n in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d t e n d e r s , e x c e p t p r e s s e r s ............................................................................................................................. 9 16 7 23 13 18 P r e s s i n g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s , te x ti le , g a r m e n t , 116 10 1 10 6 110 -1 5 -1 0 -6 -1 3 -9 ...................................................................... 6 76 534 563 586 -1 4 1 -1 1 3 -8 9 -2 1 -1 7 S e w in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , n o n g a r m e n t ............................................................ 13 6 128 13 5 142 - 7 -1 S h o e s e w in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d t e n d e r s ............................................. 33 21 22 24 -1 2 -1 0 a n d r e l a t e d ............................................................................................................................................ S e w in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , g a r m e n t 48 6 -9 -5 -3 6 -5 0 -3 2 -1 3 4 -2 8 Table 2. Continued— Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actuai 1984 and projected 1995 T o ta l e m p lo y m e n t (In th o u s a n d s ) 1 9 8 4 - 9 5 e m p lo y m e n t c h a n g e 19 9 5 O c c u p a tio n 198 4 N u m b e r s In th o u s a n d s P e rc e n t Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tren d tre n d tren d -5 5 -4 4 -3 2 -2 0 -1 6 -1 1 T e x tile m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , t e n d e r s , s e t te r s , a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , w i n d i n g ................................................................................................................... 2 79 223 235 247 14 5 14 9 15 7 16 2 4 12 17 3 8 12 63 65 68 70 2 5 8 3 9 12 73 75 79 81 3 6 9 4 9 12 1 .9 7 8 2 ,0 4 5 2 ,1 4 7 2 ,2 3 6 67 16 9 258 3 9 13 44 45 47 49 1 3 5 3 7 10 45 77 42 45 46 -2 0 2 -5 0 4 75 79 83 -2 2 6 -2 3 7 7 W o o d w o r k i n g m a c h in e s e t te r s , o p e r a t o r s , a n d o t h e r re la te d w o rke rs ........................................................................................................................................................... S a w in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , t e n d e r s , s e t te r s , a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s ................................................................................................................................................. W o o d w o r k i n g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , t e n d e r s , s e t te r s , a n d s e tu p o p e r a t o r s ....................................................................................................................................... O t h e r m a c h in e s e t te r s , s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , o p e r a t o r s , an d t e n d e r s .............................................................................................................................................. B o ile r o p e r a t o r s a n d t e n d e r s , lo w p r e s s u r e .................................................. C e m e n tin g a n d g lu in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s . . . . C h e m ic a l e q u i p m e n t c o n tr o l le r s , o p e r a t o r s , a n d te n d e r s . . 12 2 119 12 5 13 1 -3 3 9 -3 2 C u tt in g a n d s lic in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d t e n d e r s ......................... 61 59 62 64 -2 0 3 -4 1 5 E le c tr o n ic s e m i c o n d u c t o r p r o c e s s o r s 30 36 38 40 8 9 25 30 C r u s h in g a n d m ix in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s ...................................................................... E x t r u d i n g a n d f o r m in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s . . . . 71 76 79 F u r n a c e , k il n , o r k e ttle o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s 63 47 50 52 402 ........................................ 72 6 1 -1 6 5 8 -1 1 -1 3 19 7 2 -2 5 12 -1 7 -2 1 369 382 4 19 13 33 50 3 9 ............................................................ 69 72 76 79 3 7 11 5 10 15 .......................................................................... 60 66 69 72 6 9 12 10 15 20 P a p e r g o o d s m a c h in e s e tte r s a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s ......................... 60 59 63 65 2 4 P h o t o g r a p h ic p r o c e s s in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s . . 26 32 33 35 5 7 8 P a c k a g in g a n d fillin g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d t e n d e r s .................... P a in t in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s P a in t e r s , t r a n s p o r ta ti o n e q u i p m e n t -1 3 7 27 32 -2 21 14 H a n d w o r k in g o c c u p a t io n s , in c lu d in g a s s e m b le r s a n d ........................................................................................................................................................... 2 ,6 2 4 2 ,7 5 5 2 ,8 9 3 3 ,0 1 5 13 1 269 391 5 10 15 P r e c is io n a s s e m b l e r s .................................................................................................................................. 353 399 4 19 434 46 66 82 13 19 23 E le c tr ic a l a n d e le c tro n ic e q u i p m e n t a s s e m b le r s , p r e c is io n 176 19 6 205 213 20 29 37 11 17 21 61 72 75 78 10 14 17 17 23 28 27 fa b r ic a t o r s E le c tr o m e c h a n ic a l e q u i p m e n t a s s e m b le r s , p r e c is io n .................... 52 60 64 66 8 11 14 16 22 . . . 2 ,2 7 1 2 ,3 5 6 2 ,4 7 5 2 ,5 8 1 85 203 309 4 9 ....................................................................................................................................... 77 68 72 74 -9 -5 -3 -1 2 - 7 -3 -6 -3 -1 -1 2 - 7 -3 M a c h in e b u ild e r s a n d o t h e r p r e c is io n m a c h in e a s s e m b le r s O t h e r h a n d w o r k e r s , in c lu d in g a s s e m b le r s a n d fa b r ic a t o r s C a n n e ry w o rk e rs .......................................................................................... 49 44 46 48 E le c tr ic a l a n d e le c tro n ic a s s e m b l e r s ........................................................................... 259 288 302 3 13 28 62 64 7 C u tt e r s a n d t r i m m e r s , h a n d . 42 54 11 16 14 21 M a c h in e a s s e m b l e r s ............................................................................................................................. 51 59 M e a t , p o u l t r y , a n d fis h c u tte r s a n d t r i m m e r s , h a n d ......................... 98 90 93 95 P a in t in g , c o a t i n g , a n d d e c o ra tin g w o r k e r s , h a n d .............................. 41 43 45 47 2 4 7 5 11 17 W e ld e r s a n d c u t t e r s ............................................................................................................................. 308 333 349 364 25 41 56 8 13 18 P l a n t a n d s y s te m o c c u p a t i o n s .............................................................................................................. 2 75 285 297 -8 10 -5 13 -3 14 -8 20 24 -3 -5 309 10 22 34 4 8 ........................................................................... 35 35 36 38 0 1 3 4 9 P o w e r d is t r ib u t o r s a n d d i s p a t c h e r s ..................................................................................... 26 29 30 32 3 4 6 10 16 21 S t a t io n a r y e n g in e e r s 54 56 58 61 2 4 6 3 7 11 82 88 91 94 7 9 12 8 11 15 C h e m ic a l p la n t a n d s y s te m o p e r a t o r s .................................................................................................................................. W a te r a n d liq u id w a s te t r e a tm e n t p la n t a n d s y s te m o p e r a to r s -1 12 T r a n s p o r t a t io n a n d m a te r ia l m o v in g m a c h in e a n d v e h ic le o p e r a t o r s ................................................................................................................................................................ A ir c r a f t p ilo ts a n d flig h t e n g in e e r s M o t o r v e h ic le o p e r a t o r s 4 ,6 7 8 4 ,9 6 9 5 ,2 0 6 5 ,4 1 8 291 528 740 6 11 16 ..................................................................................... 79 94 97 10 1 15 18 22 19 23 28 ........................................................................................................................ 3 ,0 6 1 3 ,4 2 2 3 ,5 8 6 3 ,7 2 9 361 525 668 17 22 ........................................................................................................................................................... 459 522 536 552 63 77 93 14 17 20 B u s d r i v e r s , lo c a l a n d i n t e r c i t y ..................................................................................... 13 1 14 5 14 9 15 3 14 18 22 11 14 17 B u s d riv e rs , sc h o o l 328 118 3 77 13 2 387 49 13 8 399 143 59 20 71 25 15 11 18 17 22 21 ................................................................................................................................................. 2 ,4 8 4 2 ,7 6 8 2 ,9 1 1 3 ,0 3 3 11 17 R a il tr a n s p o r ta ti o n w o r k e r s .............................................................................................................. 113 84 88 93 -2 9 -2 5 -2 0 -2 5 -2 2 -1 8 48 33 35 37 -1 4 -1 3 -1 1 -3 0 -2 6 -2 2 B u s d riv e rs ........................................................................................................................ T a x d r iv e r s a n d c h a u f f e u r s ......................................................................................................... T r u c k d r iv e r s R a ilr o a d b r a k e , s ig n a l, a n d s w it c h o p e r a t o r s ............................................. W a t e r tr a n s p o r ta ti o n a n d re la te d w o r k e r s ................................................................. P a r k in g lo t a tte n d a n t s 56 57 60 13 284 62 1 ............................................................................................................................. 40 39 42 44 -1 S e r v i c e s t a tio n a t t e n d a n t s ................................................................................................................... 303 928 281 297 3 10 -2 1 896 938 9 76 41 -3 2 M a te ria l m o v in g e q u i p m e n t o p e r a t o r s C o n v e y o r o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s ........................................................................... ..................................................................................... 38 37 39 428 3 1 -6 -1 9 1 12 6 2 3 -2 7 - 7 48 -3 3 6 10 3 8 1 5 -2 -2 2 3 110 115 122 389 326 342 357 -6 3 O p e r a ti n g e n g i n e e r s ............................................................................................................................. 357 385 400 4 13 27 43 56 8 12 16 11 -3 1 6 -1 6 12 6 10 3 I n d u s tr ia l tr u c k a n d t r a c t o r o p e r a t o r s ...................................................................... -4 6 19 22 H o i s t , w i n c h , a n d c r a n e o p e r a t o r s ................................................................................ H e lp e r s , la b o r e r s , a n d m a te ria l m o v e r s , h a n d 6 549 12 -1 2 18 -8 ....................................................... 4 ,1 6 6 4 ,6 1 5 64 269 448 2 6 443 4 .2 3 1 449 4 ,4 3 6 H e lp e r s , c o n s tr u c ti o n t r a d e s ......................................................................................................... 4 70 486 6 27 43 1 6 H e lp e r s , e x tr a c tiv e w o r k e r s .............................................................................................................. 29 30 31 32 1 2 3 3 7 11 M a c h in e fe e d e r s a n d o f f b e a r e r s ............................................................................................... 2 78 281 296 309 3 18 31 1 6 11 R e f u s e c o lle c to rs ............................................................................................................................................ 10 99 112 116 12 0 14 17 22 14 18 22 H a n d p a c k e rs a n d p a c k a g e r s ................................................................. 325 327 344 358 19 33 1 6 10 V e h ic le w a s h e r s a n d e q u i p m e n t c le a n e rs 14 4 14 5 15 3 16 0 3 1 9 16 1 6 11 ................................................................. ’ W a g e a n d s a la r y w o r k e r s o n l y . 49 Occupations adding largest number of jobs. Thirty-seven of the 500 detailed occupations for which projections were developed account for about one-half of the projected total job growth between 1984 and 1995. (See table 3.) About one-fourth of the occupations generally require a college degree, roughly the same proportion found among all jobs in the economy. In general, these occupations are numer ically large (only two had less than 300,000 workers in 1984). Some of these occupations have projected rates of growth that are average or higher. However, others are projected to grow more slowly than average, but because of their employment size they will add significant numbers of new jobs over the 1984-95 period. Collectively, these 37 occupations accounted for 36 percent of total employ ment in 1984, and this proportion is expected to increase only to 39 percent by 1995. The detailed occupations in table 3 do not include what are called residual categories for the major occupational groups. The residual categories are often very large because they contain a wide range of job titles and therefore account for much of the group’s employment growth. For instance, the residual category, “all other managers and administra tors,” is projected to grow by more than 1.8 million workers T a b le 3 . O c c u p a tio n s w ith th e la r g e s t jo b out of a total growth of 1.9 million workers in the major occupational group, managerial and administrative workers. Fastest growing and fastest declining occupations. The fastest growing occupations provide a different perspective on future occupational employment changes. (See table 4.) It is important to note that some of these occupations are increasing rapidly from relatively small employment levels and, therefore, are not found on the list of occupations that will add the most new jobs. Notable exceptions are computer programmers, computer systems analysts, electrical and electronics engineers, and electrical and electronics tech nicians and technologists. These technologically oriented occupations, however, collectively do not account for a large portion of jobs projected to be added in 1995. Almost half of the 20 fastest growing occupations are in the com puter field or health field, which will continue to be among those with the strongest future growth. Table 5 shows the 20 most rapidly declining occupations. Most are concentrated in industries that have recently con tracted and are expected to continue to do so. Several are in the apparel and textile industries, both of which have suffered employment losses because of foreign competition g r o w t h , 1 9 8 4 --9 5 [N u m b e r s in th o u s a n d s ] C h a n g e In e m p l o y m e n t E m p lo y m e n t O c c u p a t io n P e r c e n t o f to ta l 1 9 8 4 -9 5 jo b g ro w th 19 8 4 C a s h i e r s ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 ,9 0 2 19 9 5 2 ,4 6 9 Num ber P e rc e n t 1 9 8 4 -9 5 556 2 9 .8 R e g is t e r e d n u r s e s ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 ,3 7 7 1 ,8 2 9 452 3 2 .8 2 .8 J a n i t o r s a n d c l e a n e r s , i n c l u d i n g m a i d s a n d h o u s e k e e p i n g c l e a n e r s ......................... 2 ,9 4 0 3 ,3 8 3 443 1 5 .1 2 .8 T r u c k d r i v e r s ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 ,4 8 4 2 .7 3 .6 2 ,9 1 1 428 1 7 ,2 1 ,6 2 5 2 ,0 4 9 424 2 6 .1 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 ,2 4 8 1 ,6 1 7 369 2 9 .6 2 .3 N u r s i n g a i d e s , o r d e r li e s , a n d a tte n d a n t s .................................................................................................................................. S a le s p e r s o n s , r e t a i l ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 ,2 0 4 1 ,5 5 2 348 2 8 .9 2 .2 2 ,7 3 2 3 ,0 7 5 343 1 2 .6 2 .2 A c c o u n t a n t s a n d a u d i t o r s .................................................................................................................................................................................... 882 1 ,1 8 9 307 3 4 .8 1 .9 ....................................................................................................................................... 1 ,3 8 1 1 ,6 6 2 281 2 0 .3 1 .9 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 .7 9 7 3 ,0 6 4 268 9 .6 1 .7 C o m p u t e r p r o g r a m m e r s ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 341 586 245 7 1 .7 W a it e r s a n d w a itr e s s e s ......................................................................................................................................................................................... W h o le s a le tr a d e s a le s w o r k e r s T e a c h e r s , k in d e rg a rte n a n d e le m e n t a r y S e c r e ta r ie s G e n e ra l o ffic e c le rk s ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 .7 1 .5 2 ,3 9 8 2 ,6 2 9 231 9 .6 1 .4 .............................................................................................................. 987 1 ,2 0 5 2 19 2 2 .1 1 .4 F o o d p r e p a r a t io n a n d s e r v ic e w o r k e r s , fa s t f o o d ......................................................................................................... 1 ,2 0 1 1 ,4 1 7 F o o d p r e p a r a t io n w o r k e r s , e x c lu d in g fa s t f o o d 2 15 1 7 .9 ................................................................................ 308 520 212 6 8 .7 1 .3 E le c tr ic a l a n d e le c tro n ic s e n g i n e e r s ...................................................................................................................................................... 390 597 206 5 2 .8 1 .3 E le c tr ic a l a n d e le c tro n ic s te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o l o g i s t s ..................................................................................... 404 607 202 5 0 .0 1 .3 G u a r d s ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 73 3 921 18 8 2 5 .6 1 .2 ....................................................................................................................................... 922 1 ,1 0 7 18 5 2 0 .1 1 .2 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 490 665 174 3 5 .5 1 .1 524 6 74 .9 C o m p u t e r s y s te m s a n a ly s t s , e le c tro n ic d a ta p r o c e s s in g A u t o m o t i v e a n d m o t o r c y c l e m e c h a n ic s La w ye rs C o s m e t o l o g is t s a n d re la te d w o r k e r s ................................................................................................................................................. 1 .4 15 0 2 8 .7 .............................................................................................................. 463 601 13 8 2 9 .7 ............................................................................................................................................ 878 1 ,0 1 5 13 7 1 5 .6 .9 B o o k k e e p i n g , a c c o u n t i n g , a n d a u d itin g c l e r k s ................................................................................................................... 1 ,9 7 3 2 ,0 9 1 118 6 .0 .7 C o o k s , r e s t a u r a n t ..................................................................................... M a in te n a n c e r e p a ir e r s , g e n e ra l u tility B a rt e n d e r s ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 400 241 112 2 7 .9 .7 C o m p u t e r o p e r a t o r s , e x c lu d in g p e r ip h e ra l e q u i p m e n t .......................................................................................... 353 111 4 6 .1 .7 P h y s ic ia n s a n d s u rg e o n s ................................................................................................................................................................................... 476 585 10 9 2 3 .0 .7 L ic e n s e d p ra c tic a l n u r s e s .................................................................................................................................................................................... 602 70 8 1 7 .6 .7 C a r p e n te r s ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 944 1 .0 4 6 10 1 1 0 .7 .6 S w it c h b o a r d o p e r a t o r s ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 347 447 10 0 2 8 .7 .6 F o o d s e r v ic e a n d lo d g in g m a n a g e r s ................................................................................................................................................ 657 5 12 .9 10 6 746 89 1 3 .6 .6 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 545 633 88 1 6 .2 .6 T e a c h e r a id e s a n d e d u c a tio n a l a s s i s t a n t s ................................................................................................................................. 479 566 88 1 8 .3 .6 B lu e -c o lla r w o r k e r s u p e r v i s o r s .................................................................................................................................................................... 1 .4 7 0 1 ,5 5 5 85 5 .8 .5 R e c e p t io n is t s a n d in fo r m a ti o n c l e r k s ................................................................................................................................................ 458 542 83 1 8 .2 .5 M e c h a n ic a l e n g in e e r s 237 3 17 81 3 4 .0 .5 E le c tr ic ia n s ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 50 Table 4. Fastest growing occupations, 1984-95 [N u m b e r s in th o u s a n d s ] C h a n g e In e m p lo y m e n t 19 8 4 -9 5 E m p lo y m e n t 198 4 O c c u p a tio n P a ra le g a l p e r s o n n e l ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ C o m p u t e r p r o g r a m m e r s ......................................................................................................................................................................................... C o m p u t e r s y s te m s a n a ly s t s , e le c tro n ic d a ta p r o c e s s in g (edp) ................................... M e d ic a l a s s i s t a n t s ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. D a t a p r o c e s s in g e q u i p m e n t r e p a ire rs ............................................................................................................................................ E le c tric a l a n d e le c tro n ic s e n g i n e e r s ...................................................................................................................................................... E le c tric a l a n d e le c tro n ic s te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o l o g i s t s ..................................................................................... C o m p u t e r o p e r a t o r s , e x c e p t p e rip h e ra l e q u i p m e n t P e r ip h e r a l edp e q u i p m e n t o p e r a t o r s ................................................................................................................................................. T r a v e l a g e n t s ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ P h y s ic a l th e r a p is ts P h y s ic ia n a s s is ta n t s ................................................................................................................................................................................................... S e c u ritie s a n d fin a n c ia l s e r v ic e s s a l e s w o r k e r s ................................................................................................................... M e c h a n ic a l e n g in e e r in g te c h n ic ia n s a n d t e c h n o lo g is ts ..................................................................................... L a w y e r s .................................................. C o r r e c tio n o ffic e rs a n d f i l e r s ..................................................................................................................................................................... A c c o u n t a n t s a n d a u d i t o r s .................................................................................................................................................................................... M e c h a n ic a l e n g in e e r s R e g is t e r e d n u r s e s ......................... E m p l o y m e n t in te r v ie w e r s , p r iv a te o r p u b lic e m p l o y m e n t s e r v i c e ....................................................... 53 341 308 128 50 390 404 241 70 72 58 25 81 55 490 130 882 237 1,377 72 - Num ber 104 586 520 207 78 597 607 353 102 103 51 245 212 79 28 206 202 111 32 32 83 35 113 75 665 175 1,189 317 1,829 95 25 10 32 20 174 45 307 81 452 23 * P e rc e n t 19 8 4 -9 5 97.5 71.7 68.7 62.0 56.2 52.8 50.7 46.1 45.0 43.9 .3 1.5 1.3 5 .2 1.3 1.3 42.2 40.3 39.1 36.6 35.5 34.9 34.8 34.0 32.8 31.7 .2 .1 .2 .1 1.1 .7 .2 .2 .3 1.9 .5 2 .8 .1 puters have become increasingly modular in construction, leading to greater ease of repair, but the number of computers is expected to increase rapidly enough to require the services of numerous data processing equipment repairers. Data entry keyers are the only computer-related occu pation not expected to grow rapidly. The technology for data entry is changing so fast that fewer keypunch operators are needed. These workers are being replaced by terminal operators, many of whom do this work only incidentally to their main functions, for example, airline ticket agents, cashiers, and so forth. Optical character recognition equip ment and direct sensing equipment are other ways of in putting data without using data entry keyers. and technological improvements. These two industries com bined are projected to lose about 350,000 jobs by 1995. Other declining occupations are in railroad transportation, agriculture, and private households, industries which are expected to continue their long-run declines. Occupations that are expected to be affected adversely by technological changes are stenographers, industrial truck and tractor op erators, telephone station installers and repairers, and sta tistical clerks. Job clusters Computer occupations. The applications for computers have expanded dramatically over the last two decades, and it appears that they will continue to do so through the mid1990’s. Workers engaged in developing computer-based systems and in operating these systems are projected to increase substantially by 1995. The number of computer systems analysts is projected to grow 69 percent from 1984 to 1995, adding more than 212,000 jobs. This occupation will benefit from the rise in new computer applications. Computer programmers are expected to increase 72 percent by 1995, or by 245,000 jobs over this period. The mounting number of new computer applications and the need to mod ify existing systems should bring about rapid employment growth for computer programmers, despite the increasing efficiency of programming methods. Computer operators should continue their healthy em ployment growth, increasing 46 percent or by 111 ,000 jobs between 1984 and 1995. This increase is expected to occur as more small and medium size firms introduce more com prehensive computer systems. The number of data processing equipment repairers is pro jected to increase about 56 percent, adding 28,000 jobs by 1995. Many of these workers will be needed to service the more mechanical computer-related equipment, such as disk and tape drives and printers, in addition to computers. Com 19 9 5 P e rc e n t o f tota l jo b g ro w th Scientific and technical occupations. High technology in dustry growth and the increasing use of high technology products in the economy as a whole will lead to the in creasing employment of scientific and technical personnel. Engineers are projected to increase 36 percent during the 1984-95 period, adding 480,000 jobs. Much of this sharp rise will be found among electrical and electronic engineers (up 206,000) engaged in developing computers, commu nications equipment, and defense-related electronic equip ment. Mechanical engineers and civil engineers are two other numerically important engineering specialties which are expected to grow rapidly. Mechanical engineers, with projected growth of 81,000 jobs from 1984 to 1995, will be needed to keep product design and production methods up-to-date as a part of industry’s desire to remain compet itive. Civil engineers, up 46,000 jobs, will be needed for additional heavy construction. Engineering and scientific technicians and technologists are projected to grow 28 percent between 1984 and 1995, adding 371,000 jobs. These occupations follow the em ployment trends of their related scientific and engineering occupations. Drafters are expected to be a major exception 51 among the technician occupations. They are expected to increase more slowly than the average for total employment, owing to the introduction of computer-aided design ( c a d ) equipment, which has increased the efficiency of drafting operations, and is expected to continue. The expanding need for drafting work and the ability of management to improve the quality of work by using c a d , however, will prevent a decline in drafters, despite the greater efficiency of the new equipment. Biological scientists are projected to increase about av erage between 1984 and 1995, as they continue to develop drugs, food products, and chemicals. The number of chem ists is projected to rise 10 percent, or slower than average, reflecting the relatively mature industries in which they are concentrated. Mathematical scientists should have faster than average growth, mainly as a result of increased statistical work and mathematical modeling. Health-related occupations. Occupations in the health care field, including medical professionals, technicians, and ser vice workers, are projected to increase by 26 percent and add 1.4 million jobs by 1995. This faster than average rate of growth, however, will not be uniform across industries and occupations related to the delivery of health care. The hospital industry, in particular, is undergoing major changes in the services it provides and in the occupational skill mix needed to provide them. Hospital employment soared over the 1973-84 period, but slower than average growth is Table 5. Fastest declining occupations, 1984-95 [Numbers in thousands] E m p lo y m e n t 19 9 5 P e rc e n t d ec lin e In e m p lo y m e n t O c c u p a tio n 198 4 S te n o g r a p h e r s ................................................................. S h o e s e w in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d 239 14 3 - 4 0 .3 t e n d e r s ............................................. v _ ........................... 33 22 - 3 1 .5 48 35 - 2 6 .4 27 21 - 2 2 .3 R a ilr o a d b r a k e , s ig n a l, a n d s w it c h o p e r a t o r s ........................................................................... R a il c a r r e p a ire rs ....................................................... F u r n a c e , k il n , o r k e ttle o p e r a t o r s a n d te n d e r s ................................................................. 63 50 - 2 0 .9 43 35 - 1 8 .6 993 811 - 1 8 .3 S h o e a n d le a th e r w o r k e r s a n d ........................................ r e p a ir e r s , p r e c is io n P r iv a t e h o u s e h o l d w o r k e r s ......................... S t a tio n in s ta lle rs a n d r e p a ir e r s , t e l e p h o n e ........................................................................... 111 92 - 1 7 .4 6 76 563 - 1 6 .7 2 79 235 - 1 5 .7 S e w in g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , g a rm e n t ........................................................................... T e x tile m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s , te n d e r s , s e t te r s , a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , w i n d i n g ................................................................................. M a c h in e r y m a in t e n a n c e m e c h a n ic s , ................................................... 26 22 - 1 4 .8 S ta tis tic a l c l e r k s ............................................................ 93 81 - 1 2 .7 389 342 - 1 1 .9 te x tile m a c h in e s In d u s tr ia l tr u c k a n d tr a c t o r o p e r a t o r s ........................................................................... C e n tr a l o ffic e o p e r a t o r s Fa rm w orke rs - 1 1 .5 ................................... 77 68 ................................................................. 1 ,0 7 9 958 - 1 1 .2 73 1 654 - 1 0 .6 27 24 - 9 .6 28 25 - 9 .1 C o lle g e a n d u n iv e r s ity fa c u lt y . . . . Fa rm and h o m e m an agem en t a d v is e r s ........................................................................... E x t r u d i n g a n d d r a w in g m a c h in e s e tte r s a n d s e t -u p o p e r a t o r s , m e ta l a n d p l a s t i c .................................................. P r e s s i n g m a c h in e o p e r a t o r s a n d t e n d e r s , te x ti le , g a r m e n t a n d re la te d ................................................................................. P o s t a l s e r v ic e c le r k s ............................................. 116 10 6 - 8 .8 3 17 290 - 8 .5 projected for the 1984—95 period. Despite the deceleration in hospital employment, faster than average growth is pro jected for nursing homes, doctors’ offices, and outpatient care facilities. Cost-containment pressures, technological advances that allow sophisticated care to be provided on an outpatient basis, and consumer demand for community-based and home health care will have an adverse impact on some occupations and a favorable impact on others. Surgical technicians are projected to grow as fast as the average employment growth for all occupations and medical and clinical laboratory tech nologists are projected to grow more slowly than average. The number of physicians’ assistants, however, is expected to grow much faster than the economy’s projected average growth as hospitals and health maintenance organizations employ more of them to help contain costs. Additional op portunities for physicians’ assistants are also expected in large multi-specialty offices of physicians. The number of medical records technologists and technicians is also ex pected to grow much faster than average, owing to the great importance of the medical records department to hospitals in monitoring and reducing costs. Medical assistants are also projected to grow much faster than average. Contrib uting to future job growth is the projected increase in the number of physicians in practice and the extremely rapid growth in outpatient care facilities, such as urgent care cen ters and “ surgicenters.” Most other health occupations are expected to experience faster or higher than average growth. Registered nurses are expected to remain the largest specialty with 1.8 million workers in 1995—an increase of 33 percent over 1984, creating 452,000 jobs. Most of the job growth for registered nurses is expected to occur in hospitals, despite the relatively slow rate of growth for this industry within the health ser vices sector. Their importance in hospitals will increase as they take over some of the functions performed by other health personnel. The next largest group, nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants, is projected to increase by 29 percent and 348,000 new jobs, followed by licensed prac tical nurses—up 18 percent and 106,000 new jobs. The dominant factor contributing to job growth for both nurses aides and licensed practical nurses is the aging of the pop ulation. Care of the aged, however, is expected to continue to shift away from hospitals to nursing homes and home health care. By 1995, nursing homes (with a projected rate of growth of 44 percent) should move ahead of hospitals as the primary employer of both nurses aides and licensed practical nurses. Physicians and surgeons are another large occupational group that is projected to increase faster than average—up 23 percent. Other smaller health occupations that are pro jected to grow rapidly include physical therapists, occu pational therapists, dental hygienists, dental assistants, and dietitians. Education-related occupations. 52 Occupations in education, pational group in 1995 with 20.5 million workers. The num ber of new jobs created is large, even with slow growth, because of the relatively large employment base in 1984. Significant numbers of new jobs in the future are expected to be added in several clerical fields, including secretaries (268,000 jobs); general office clerks (231,000 jobs); book keeping, accounting, and auditing clerks (118,000 jobs); and receptionists and information clerks (83,000 jobs). Other occupations are expected to be more severely af fected by office automation and other types of technological changes that will result in little or no job growth for some and declining employment for others. Typists, for example, will continue to be affected by developments in word pro cessing and are expected to have little change in employment from 1984 to 1995. Low growth rates are also expected for file clerks; reservation and transportation ticket agents; traffic, shipping, and receiving clerks; and production, planning, and expediting clerks. Several occupations are expected to decline in employment between 1984 and 1995, including stenographers (down 40 percent), statistical clerks (down 13 percent), and payroll and timekeeping clerks (down 5 percent). Technological changes in specific industries are also ex pected to adversely affect certain occupations. The imple mentation of electronic switching in the telephone industry, for example, is projected to cause the number of central office operators to decline by 11 percent. Also, the rapid spread of automated teller machines and the increased use of electronic funds transfer in banking is expected to cause tellers to increase more slowly than average, in contrast to the rapid growth that has occurred for many years. United States Postal Service clerks are projected to decline by 9 percent owing to the further application of technologies that reduce labor requirements in this occupation, including computer forwarding, optical character recognition, sorting devices, and electronic weighing of mail. Many of these same technological advances will curtail the need for mail clerks (except mailing machine operators and postal ser vice), but rapid growth of private express mail companies is expected to moderate some of the impact and result in little change in employment for the occupation. Some clerical occupations are projected to increase sig nificantly, despite technological changes because they are concentrated in industries that are expected to increase in employment. Among these occupations are switchboard op erators, adjustment clerks, bill and account collectors, in surance adjusters and investigators, court clerks, and credit checkers. as a group, are projected to grow about as fast as average. However, different rates of change are expected for the various specialties owing to changing demographics of the school-age population and other factors determining the rates of growth or decline of employment at the elementary, sec ondary, and post-secondary levels. Kindergarten and elementary schoolteachers are projected to increase 20 percent and add 281,000 new jobs. School enrollments at the elementary level are expected to become a larger proportion of total enrollments and teacher-pupil ratios are also expected to increase. Favorable employment opportunities are expected for teacher aides and educational assistants—up 18 percent and about 88,000 new jobs. Secondary schoolteachers are projected to grow more slowly than average (5 percent), adding 48,000 jobs. While sec ondary school enrollments are expected to become a smaller proportion of total school enrollments, the effect of this relative decline will be moderated somewhat by an increase in teacher-pupil ratios. College and university faculty are projected to decline from 731,000 in 1984 to 654,000 in 1995, a loss of 77,000 jobs to the profession. The primary reason for this drop is the expected decline in college enrollments through 1995. The number of vocational education and training teachers and instructors is expected to have an average rate of in crease. The number of 18- to 24-year-olds, who are the primary consumers of vocational education, will decline through 1995. However, this decline is expected to be par tially offset by an increase in the number of adults who may need retraining because of technological displacement. Preschool teachers also grew rapidly in the past and are now projected to increase only as fast as average in the future. The rate of increase in the population under 5 years of age and in the labor force participation rate of women are both expected to slow down through 1995. The numbers of professional librarians, library techni cians, and library assistants are all expected to grow more slowly than average because of the slow enrollment growth in schools, where most library occupations are found, and the continued trend to automate the circulation, cataloging, and acquisition departments of most libraries. Office clerical workers. This group experienced a rapid growth in the 1960’s and average growth in the 1970’s but is projected to grow more slowly than average between 1984 and 1995. In addition to the direct impact that computerized office equipment will have on the clerical work force, the rate of employment growth of these workers is expected to be further slowed as more and more professionals and man agers use desktop personal computers and executive work stations to do some of the work previously delegated to support staff. In spite of the slowing employment growth, it is important to remember that office clerical workers are projected to add almost 2 million jobs and remain the largest major occu Service occupations, except private household workers. A continued trend toward eating outside the home is foreseen, but within the eating and drinking industry, a slowing in the growth of employment in fast-food establishments and an increase in restaurants is expected. A rapid projected rate of growth for the industry overall will result in a faster than 53 add 185,000 jobs. Bus and truck mechanics and diesel en gine specialists should add another 48,000 jobs. Automotive body and related repairers should gain 32,000 jobs by 1995. Thus, motor vehicles are expected to be responsible for about two-fifths of the total growth of the mechanics and repairs occupational group. Other occupations in this group also contribute signifi cantly to its employment growth. General utility mainte nance repairers are projected to add 137,000 jobs. Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers are expected to add 29,000 new jobs. average increase for food and beverage service occupations with 1.5 million jobs added by 1995. Among the occupa tions in this group projected to add large numbers of new jobs are waiters and waitresses (424,000); food preparation workers, except fast-food (219,000); and restaurant cooks (138,000). Because of their large employment size, food preparation and service workers in fast food restaurants are projected to add 215,000 jobs, despite only average growth. The number of janitors and cleaners is projected to show average growth, 15 percent, but because of the size of the occupation this will result in 443,000 new jobs. In most industries, however, janitors and cleaners will decline as a proportion of employment, as contractors will increasingly provide these services. An exception is the services to build ings industry, in which the large concentration of these employees is expected to grow very rapidly. The numbers of police and detectives and of workers in firefighting occupations are both projected to increase as fast as the average, adding 66,000 and 48,000 new jobs. Guards are expected to increase at a faster than average rate, adding almost 188,000 new jobs. As with janitors and cleaners, their services are increasingly being purchased by contract ing out. About 295,000 new jobs are expected to be added by personal service workers. Several of the detailed occupa tions are projected to grow faster than average, including flight attendants, cosmetologists and related workers, so cial welfare service aides, and amusement and recreation attendants. Production occupations. Employment growth of produc tion occupations is closely tied to the growth of manufac turing employment. Within the production worker cluster, the occupational group of helpers, laborers, and material movers (hand) should increase more slowly than average because of the growing use of automation in manufacturing. Blue-collar worker supervisors are projected to increase more slowly than average but add 85,000 additional jobs because of the large size of the occupation. Other occupations within the production worker cluster are also affected by changing practices within the manufacturing industries. Precision production jobs overall are projected to increase by 10 percent, with about 287,000 new jobs. Precision inspectors, testers, and graders should increase rapidly, up almost 49,000 jobs, as more emphasis is placed on quality control of high technology products. Sheet metal workers should gain almost 33,000 jobs. Machinists are being af fected by the introduction of numerically controlled machine tools which require less specialized set-up procedures and therefore, their numbers are expected to grow more slowly than average. Machine setters, set-up operators, and tenders are projected to increase by only 4 percent because of increasing automation in most manufacturing industries. However, this slow growth should still yield 196,000 more jobs on account of the large size of this group of occupations. The number of plastic mold ing machine operators and tenders would, under the assump tions used by b l s in developing these projections, grow faster than average between 1984 and 1995. This growth results from the increasing substitution of plastics for other materials in manufactured goods. Many of the textile and garment oc cupations in this group should decline mainly as employment in the apparel and textile industries decline as a result of increasing foreign competition. The handworking occupations, including assemblers and fabricators, are projected to grow more slowly than average. Precision assemblers, however, should increase as fast as average, adding 66,000 jobs in the high technology indus tries, such as electronics, aircraft, and machine tools. Construction trades. The construction trades are expected to experience a moderate employment growth of 12 percent between 1984 and 1995. However, even this moderate growth should generate 396,000 additional jobs because of the large employment in this group of occupations. Carpenters, the largest of the construction trades, are projected to grow about as fast as average and add about 100,000 jobs between 1984 and 1995. Electricians, another large construction trade, should have more significant em ployment growth between 1984 and 1995, with a growth rate of 16 percent and 88,000 additional jobs. The employ ment of electricians is split about evenly between those working in the construction industry and those doing main tenance work throughout the rest of the economy. Mechanics and repairers. Mechanics, installers, and re pairers are projected to increase 15 percent, adding 647,000 new jobs by 1995. Many of these occupations are employed in manufacturing which tends to slow their growth, but they are also found outside manufacturing, sharing the more rapid expansion of those industries. Wherever mechanics, install ers, and repairers are employed, they have increased em ployment to some extent because of the growing use of capital equipment which requires maintenance and repair. Automotive and motorcycle mechanics are projected to Transportation and material moving occupations. Employment in this group of occupations generally follows overall economic activity, increasing when total employ- 54 in occupational employment from one scenario to another are caused only by differences in projected industry em ployment levels because the same set of occupational staff ing patterns were used for all three scenarios. The following identifies the top 10 occupations with the greatest numerical differences between the alternative (high or low) projected employment and the moderate-trend employment: ment is increasing and declining in recessions. After peaking in 1979, employment for this group declined during the recessions of 1980 and 1982. With recovery in 1984, em ployment rose again and is now projected to increase about as fast as total employment, adding 528,000 jobs by 1995. The largest detailed occupation in the group is truck driv ers, with employment projected to increase from 2.5 million in 1984 to 2.9 million in 1995. No significant technological developments are anticipated that would adversely affect their employment. Average growth is also expected for both the drivers of school buses and local and intercity buses. The fastest growing occupation in this group is aircraft pilots and flight engineers (23 percent), whose employment is expected to be favorably influenced by the faster than av erage growth projected for the air transportation industry. Some transportation and material moving occupations will be adversely affected by declining industry employment and others by technological change. The rapid decline in em ployment projected for the railroad industry (from 369,000 to 272,000) will cause railroad transportation workers to decline. The shift to self-service gasoline stations will con tinue to have an impact on the employment of service station attendants, with little change in employment projected over the 1984-95 period. Industrial truck and tractor operators are projected to lose 46,000 jobs owing to technological innovations. New industrial trucks that are linked to the dispatcher by computer will make their operators more pro ductive and the growth of automated warehouses will elim inate the need for many of these workers. Occupation Salespersons, retail ...................................................... Janitors and cleaners .................................................... Truckdrivers .................................................................. Secretaries ...................................................................... Cashiers .......................................................................... General office clerks .................................................... 118,000 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks . . . . 101,000 Waiters and waitresses ..................................................... 96,000 Registered nurses ............................................................... 76,000 Blue-collar worker supervisors ....................................... 74,000 Data uses and limitations The current and projected occupational employment data presented in this article were developed at a detailed industry level as part of a national industry-occupation employment matrix. Data on specific occupations from the matrix along with other information on training requirements, nature of work, working conditions, and earnings will be used in the 1986-87 edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook which will be issued in the spring of 1986. In addition to being used in the development of career guidance infor mation, national occupational employment data and projec tions are used at all levels of government, and by others, to formulate education plans, including vocational education and training requirements. Most discussions of future job opportunities focus on the employment growth in industries and occupations. Because faster growing industries and occupations generally offer better opportunities for employment and advancement, em ployment growth is an important gauge of job outlook. However, it is not the only one. Another element in the employment outlook is replacement needs. Replacement openings occur as people leave occupations. Some individ uals transfer to other occupations as a step up the career ladder or to change careers. Some temporarily stop working, perhaps to return to school or care for a family, and some leave the labor force permanently—retirees, for example. In many occupations, as a consequence, replacement needs are more important than openings owing to growth in an occupation.3 Another consideration in interpreting the data on occupational demand is the availability or supply of workers trained or educated to enter an occupation. Even with rapidly expanding job openings from either growth or replacement needs, jobseekers may have a difficult time finding a job because the supply of workers is expanding at an even faster pace. □ Low and high alternative projections Total employment in the moderate-trend projections var ies by only about 4 percent from both the low and high alternatives. The distribution of employment by broad oc cupational group varies little among the alternatives (table 6) because of offsetting changes within the major occupational groups. In looking at specific occupations, however, sig nificant differences may exist between the moderate and either the low and high alternatives (table 2). The differences Table 6. Percent distribution of total employment by major occupation group, 1984 and projected 1995 alternativves 19 9 5 O c c u p a t io n Total em ploym ent ............................................... Executive adm in istra tiw e , and managerial w o r k e r s .............................................................. Professional w orkers Technical and related support Salesworkers ...................................... Adm inistrative support w orkers, including c le r ic a l..................................................... Private household w o rk e r s ................................ Service w orkers, except private household workers .............................................................. Precision production, craft, and repair w o r k e r s ............................................... Operators, fabricators, and laborers Farming, forestry, and fishing workers 19 8 4 Lo w M o d e ra te H ig h 100.0 10.6 100 0 11.2 100.0 11.2 100.0 11.2 12.0 3.0 10.5 12.8 3.4 10.8 12.7 3.4 10.9 12.6 3.4 11.0 17.5 9 16.7 7 16 7 7 16.7 .7 14.6 15.4 15.4 15.4 114 16.2 3 3 11.1 15.1 2.8 11.1 15.2 2.8 11.1 15.2 2.8 Employment difference 159,000 150,000 143,000 137,000 126,000 55 FOOTNOTESnational matrix is d eveloped by applying data on occupational staffing patterns o f industries collected in the O ccupational Em ploym ent Statistics program to estim ates o f annual average industry em ploym ent collected in the Current Em ploym ent Statistics program. T hese surveys count jobs rather than people; therefore, the em ploym ent estim ates contained in this report are different from those derived from a count o f individuals in the Current Population Survey. 1Data on occupational distribution patterns are derived from the O c cupational Em ploym ent Statistics surveys for all nonagricultural industries, except private households. S ee Handbook of Methods, Bulletin 213 4 (B u reau o f Labor Statistics, 1982), for a description o f the OES survey. 2Table 2 includes only detailed occupations with em ploym ent o f 2 5 ,0 0 0 or more in 1984. Projections d eveloped in greater detail with em ploym ent o f 5 ,0 0 0 or more in 1984 w ill be published in the spring o f 1986 in Occupational Projections and Training Data, 1986 edition. Current and projected occupational em ploym ent estim ates are d eveloped by the Bureau in the National Industry-O ccupational Em ploym ent Matrix program. The 3 A discussion o f replacem ents, including rates for selected occupations, w ill appear in Occupational Projections and Training Data to be available in the spring o f 1986. 56 Part II. Projection Methods Overview For several decades, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been preparing 5 to 15 year projections of the U.S. economy. Since the early 1970’s, projections have been prepared on a regular 2-year cycle. The projections cover the future size and composition of the labor force, the rate of aggregate economic growth, industrial produc tion, and industrial and occupational employment. The data serve a number of users who need information on future changes in the U.S. economy. The information on future employment opportunities by occupation, for example, is used by counselors, educators, and others helping young persons choose a career, and by officials who plan education and training programs. Over the years, the procedures used to develop the projections have undergone many changes, as new data series were released and economic and statistical tools improved. Since the late 1970’s, the bls projection methodology has been relatively unchanged and it is that system which is described below. The bls projections are developed in a series of five steps each of which is based on a separate model: (1) labor force; (2) aggregate economic performance; (3) industry final demand and total industry production; (4) industry employment; and (5) occupational employment. While each of these five steps is conducted separately, the projection model used in each step depends upon inputs from the earlier steps and feeds logically into the next. Although the models used to develop projections for each step in the process are complex, they provide only a framework for detailed analysis of the structure and composition of the economy in the future. As a result of detailed analyses, the models are run and rerun, assump tions are revised, and the results are reviewed until, in the judgment of the bls staff, projections are achieved for all of the integral parts of the system which are both reasonable and internally consistent. the population projections in hand, bls analyzes and projects changes in labor force participation rates for 82 age, sex, and race groups. The labor force participation rate projection for each group is developed by first selecting a trend rate of change based on participation rate behavior during 1962-1984 or for some sub-period which analysis indi cates is more appropriate. Second, the rate is modified when the time-series projections for the specific group appear inconsistent with the results of cross-sectional and cohort analyses. This second step, in which many of the selected growth rates are averaged, ensures consistency among the various groups. Finally, the sizes of the anticipated labor force are calculated by applying the labor force participation rates to the population projec tions. The results are again reviewed for consistency. Aggregate economy Aggregate economic performance-the second model in the bls projection procedures-is developed by projecting the Gross National Product (gnp ), and major categories of demand and income. Because the purpose of the bls projections is to identify long-term trends, no attempt is made to project cyclical movements. The labor force and population projections are but two of many inputs used in the model. Alternative economic scenarios, usually three, are developed to provide controls for the various categories of demand and employment. The scenarios encompass a range of possible rates of growth. In later stages of the projection process, industry output and employment projections and occupational projections are developed that are consistent with the aggregate econom ic alternatives. Wharton Econometrics developed the model used by the Bureau to project aggregate economic trends, in response to a competitive procurement process. The Wharton long-term model is a system of behavioral relationships and identities based on annual data and designed to allow an analyst to explore the determinants of medium- to long-term growth in the U.S. economy. Made up of approximately 2,400 equations, the model is driven by a set of 900 exogenous variables. Under the terms of this agreement, the Bureau uses the Wharton long-term macroeconomic model to develop the bls projections, bls analysts determine the assumptions and Labor force The labor force projections, the first step in the bls projections sequence, are determined by the future age, sex, and racial composition of the population and by trends in the labor force participation rates—the percent of a specified group in the population who will be working or seeking work. The population projections, prepared by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, are based on trends in birth rates, death rates, and net migration. With 58 investment, among each of the 156 industries in the bls input-output model. In projecting changes in these bridge tables, expected changes in technology, consumer tastes or buying patterns, the industrial pattern of exports and imports, the future composition of each industry’s busi ness investment, and other structural factors are consid ered. values for the exogenous variables and equation adjust ments in the Wharton model. The exogenous variables include true policy variables, such as various Federal transfer programs, the response of the monetary authority to growth in the economy, and the level of the armed forces. They also include variables for which other reliable and generally accepted projec tions are available, such as the population projections developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Finally, the exogenous variables include those items which are too volatile or too politically determined to project. The former group includes such items as economic growth and inflation rates in the economies of the major trading partners of the United States and the long-term behavior of the U.S. dollar’s exchange value. The latter group includes items such as energy prices. It should be noted that the bls does not rely on the Wharton model alone for projecting possible trends in the future. Rather, the model provides a framework for the preparation of a consistent set of economy-wide projections given a set of exogenous assumptions, bls analysts then review the aggregate results for reasonable ness. The review includes checks on internal consistency, evaluation of continuity with past trends, and compari sons with projections made by others. Although the review tends to focus on such items as gnp , unemploy ment, and productivity, the model’s framework ensures that other important measures of economic performance are not overlooked. Input-output model The next element in developing industry output pro jections is the projection of the input-output table which accounts for the changes in the input pattern or the way in which goods or services are produced by each industry. In general, two types of changes in these input patterns are made in developing a future input-output table: (a) those made to the inputs of a specific industry (as, for example, the changes in inputs in the publishing industry); and, (b) those made to the inputs of a specific commodity in all or most industries (as for increased use of business services across a wide spectrum of industries). These changes are based on studies of specific industries conducted internally or by other organizations both within and outside of government. Changing the input patterns in the future input-output table is the procedure used to accommodate the impacts of expected relative price changes, or future changes in technology. The output requirements by industry are developed by multi plying the projected input-output table by the projected levels of final demand. Final demand The bls projection procedure then moves from the aggregate to the industrial level. For the industry demand projections, the U.S. economy is disaggregated into 156 producing sectors that cover the U.S. industrial struc ture, both the public and private. The framework for this procedure is an input-output model. The initial inputoutput data used by bls are prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. The development of projections of industry output begins with the aggregate demand projections from the Wharton model. In this model, projections are made for 14 categories of consumption, 4 types of investment, 15 end-use categories of foreign trade, and 6 categories of government spending. A further disaggregation of the values from the model is then undertaken: purchases of producers’ durable equipment, for example, are estimated for 107 consuming industries. Furthermore, to develop industry demand projections, provision is made to allow for shifts in the industrial makeup of a given demand category. This is accom plished by projecting “bridge tables” relating individual types of demand to producing industries. The bridge table is a percent distribution for each given demand category, such as for a consumption category or for Industry employment The projected changes in industry employment are computed based on the projected changes in output and other factors, bls uses a regression model containing an equation for each industry to estimate worker-hours as a function of (a) the industry’s output, (b) aggregate capacity utilization, (c) the relative price of labor, and (d) a technology variable as approximated by the output/ capital ratio. For each industry, worker-hours are con verted into jobs using trends in average annual hours for that industry. In order to balance total employment from the aggregate projections with the sum of employment projections, a number of iterations of the process are necessary. The projections of employment for the 156 producing sectors in the economic growth model are further disaggregated using a time series regression model into 378 industries that, with few exceptions, correspond to three-digit Standard Industrial Classification codes. The 378 resulting projections are reviewed in light of a broad range of economic information. These projections are then used as inputs into the process of projecting occupational employment. 59 tency of this large structure, the bls projection procedure encompasses detailed review and analysis of the results at each stage for reasonableness and for consistency with the results from other stages of the bls projections. For example, changes in staffing patterns in the occupational model are closely related to changes in industry produc tivity and technology. Productivity projections are re viewed in detail by the bls Office of Productivity and Technology. In short, the final results reflect innumera ble interactions among staff members who focus on particular variables in the model. Because of this review, bls’ projection process converges to an internally consis tent set of employment projections across a substantial number of industries and occupations. The continued cross-checking of the assumptions and results makes it difficult to quantify the effects of each change in each variable. Occupational employment The model used to develop the occupational employ ment projections is an industry-occupation matrix show ing the distribution of employment for 378 industries and for more than 550 detailed occupations. Occupational staffing patterns for the industries are based on data collected by State Employment Security Agencies and analyzed by bls. Staffing patterns of industries in the base-year indus try-occupation matrix are projected to the target year of the projections to account for changes expected to occur because of technological change, shifts in product mix, and other factors. The changes introduced into the inputoutput model for expected technological change, as an example, may also change future staffing patterns in industries using the new technology. (For example, one would expect greater employment of computer specialists as computer technology spreads across industries.) The projected industry employment data are applied to the projected industry occupational staffing patterns, yield ing employment by occupation for each industry. This is aggregated across all industries to yield total occupation al employment for the projected year. The projection process at the Bureau of Labor Statis tics does not end with the development and publication of a set of projections. Once the target year is reached, bls evaluates the projections to determine what changes in assumptions or models would have made them more accurate. Knowing the sources of errors helps improve the projection process. It also highlights for users the imprecise nature of making statements about future economic, industrial activity, or employment growth. Final review An important element of the projection system is its comprehensive structure. To ensure the internal consis 60 Labor Force necessary to include the Coast Guard and reserves on active duty for less than 6 months. To prepare the labor force projections, it is also necessary to have an age-sex-race distribution. To obtain that, we assume that the Armed Forces will have the same age-sex-race structure as in 1983, the most recent year for which Census data are available. From 1990 on, the Armed Forces are assumed to have the same structure as in 1989. With the addition of the Coast Guard and reserves, the Armed Forces are projected to have the following composition (in thousands): The Bureau of Labor Statistics ( bls) projections of the labor force are developed by age, sex, and race for 198595. They are based on the middle population projections of the Bureau of the Census and bls assumptions concerning future trends in labor force participation. The projections are presented with three alternative scenarios to cover a range of possibilities for future labor force growth. Population The Census projections are for the total population including the Armed Forces and the institutional popula tion. (See Bureau of the Census, C urrent Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 952.) These projections use the cohort-component method, in which the components of population change (births, deaths, and net migration) are projected separately for each birth cohort (persons bom in each year). The base-year population estimate is moved forward year by year using projected survival rates and net immigration by single year of age, sex, and race. Each year, a new birth cohort of persons under the age of 1 is added to the population by applying projected age-race-specific fertility rates to the female population. In Census’ middle scenario, fertility is assumed to reach an ultimate completed cohort fertility of 1.9 births per woman. This is consistent with recent levels of fertility, women’s expectations of future births, and social and economic trends leading to lower fertility, namely, increases in labor force participation, educational attain ment, and age at first marriage. Mortality is assumed to decline rapidly through the year 2005. The Census’ middle scenario assumes life expectancy at birth will be 72.3 years for men in 1995, 79.8 years for women. Finally, Census’ scenario assumes immigration will be a constant annual net inflow of 450,000, roughly equal to the measured level of net immigration over the past decade. From Census’ total population estimates, bls substracts estimates of the 1995 Armed Forces and institu tional population. At the time the projections were prepared, the goal of the Department of Defense for 1989 was an active duty force of 2,253,000. To make the projections consistent with Current Population Survey estimates (source for the historical labor force data), it is 1985 ............... 1986 ............... 1987 ............... 1988 ............... 1989 ............... T o ta l M en 2,235 2,276 2,299 2,314 2,322 2,005 2,041 2,059 2,072 2,079 W om en 230 235 240 242 243 The 1995 noninstitutional population estimates are obtained by assuming that the 1983 ratio of institutional population to total population by age, sex, and race continues to hold. Participation rates The second element in the labor force projections is bls projections of labor force participation rates, which are projected in two steps for 82 different age, sex, and race groups. First, past trends are extrapolated to 1995. Second, these extrapolated trends are modified when cross-sectional and cohort analyses show an inconsisten cy with the time series analysis. The second step has its largest impact for black women, its smallest impact for white men. Trends in participation for each group are estimated by regressing participation rates against time for two peri ods, designated the longer (1954-84) and the shorter (1977-84). The initial projections of participation rates are extrapolations of the historical trends to the year 1995. In some instances, the longer trend is used; in others, the shorter trend. These initial 1995 estimates are then reviewed to ensure that they result in a coherent cross-sectional pattern in 1995 and that the resulting cohort labor force pattern also is meaningful. For those that are not, participation rates are changed and the resulting time-series projection reviewed. The steps in this methodology are illustrated in table 1. Columns 1 and 2 show the historical time trends as 61 Table 1. Selected variables for labor force participation model, whites and blacks and others Age/sex/ race group White women 16 to 1 7 ............... 18 to 1 9 ............... 20 to 24 ............... 25 to 2 9 ............... 30 to 3 4 ............... 35 to 3 9 ............... 40 to 44 ............... 45 to 49 ............... 50 to 54 ............... 55 to 59 ............... 60 to 61 ............... 62 to 64 ............... 65 to 69 ............... 70 to 71 ............... 72 to 74 ............... 75 and over......... Black and other women 16 to 1 7 ............... 18 to 1 9 ............... 20 to 2 4 ............... 25 to 2 9 ............... 30 to 3 4 ............... 35 to 39 ............... 40 to 44 ............... 45 to 49 ............... 50 to 54 ............... 55 to 59 ............... 60 to 61 ............... 62 to 64 ............... 65 to 69 ............... 70 to 71 ............... 72 to 74 ............... 75 and over......... White men 16 to 1 7 ............... 18 to 1 9 ............... 20 to 2 4 ............... 25 to 29 ............... 30 to 34 ............... 35 to 39 ............... 40 to 44 ............... 45 to 49 ............... 50 to 54 ............... 55 to 59 ............... 60 to 61 ............... 62 to 64 ............... 65 to 69 ............... 70 to 71 ............... 72 to 74 ............... 75 and over......... Average annual percent change 1965-84 1977-84 Used in middle scenario (Col. 1) (Col. 2) (Col. 3) 0.93 0.83 1.29 1.99 1.87 1.54 1.28 0.86 0.45 0.05 -0.13 -0.11 -0.19 -0.17 -0.06 -0.06 -0.46 0.13 0.66 1.33 1.85 1.56 1.30 1.35 0.72 0.18 -0.11 0.17 -0.04 -0.01 -0.03 -0.01 1977-84 0.14 0.07 0.29 0.78 1.07 0.72 0.71 0.25 0.03 -0.17 -0.04 -0.36 -0.28 -0.23 -0.45 -0.15 -0.36 -0.35 -0.24 -0.02 0.17 0.86 1.20 0.77 0.12 0.28 0.25 0.22 -0.57 -0.40 -0.39 • -0.02 0.21 0.44 0.21 -0.09 -0.14 -0.09 -0.12 -0.15 -0.31 -0.59 -1.24 -1.39 -1.03 -0.74 -0.53 -0.26 -1.25 -0.53 0.02 -0.07 -0.13 -0.01 -0.21 -0.06 -0.04 -0.27 -0.98 -1.42 -0.76 -0.54 -0.56 -0.14 11 11 11 11 11 lr it n 11 1965-84 11 11 11 11 11 1977-84 11 11 11 11 ll 11 11 11 11 1965-84 11 11 11 ll 11 1965-84 11 11 •i 11 11 1977-84 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 62 Actual 1984 participation rate Participation rate, 1995 Middle scenario estimate (Col. 4) Based on extrapolating 1977-84 trend (Col. 5) (Col. 6) Difference between the two estimates (Col. 7) 44.8 65.2 72.5 70.8 68.8 69.5 69.7 66.1 59.3 49.4 39.6 28.3 14.1 8.5 6.5 2.4 39.7 66.6 79.8 85.4 89.1 86.7 84.0 80.9 67.2 51.4 38.4 30.2 13.7 8.4 6.2 2.3 44.9 64.8 79.0 81.7 81.4 81.2 79.3 74.0 66.7 51.3 38.1 28.3 12.1 6.7 5.1 1.6 5.2 -1.8 -0.8 -3.7 -7.7 -5.5 -4.7 -6.9 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -1.9 -1.6 -1.7 -1.1 -0.7 24.6 45.8 60.5 68.4 70.6 74.0 72.3 67.2 60.0 53.0 43.8 32.7 14.8 8.6 5.5 2.7 20.6 41.9 57.9 68.2 72.5 83.5 85.5 75.7 61.3 56.1 46.5 35.1 8.5 4.2 1.2 2.5 27.0 45.5 64.5 76.5 81.5 81.9 80.9 78.0 69.1 54.7 42.9 32.5 11.6 5.3 3.0 1.2 6.4 3.6 6.6 8.3 9.0 -1.6 -4.6 2.3 7.8 -1.4 -3.6 -2.6 3.1 1.1 1.8 -1.3 47.0 70.7 86.5 94.8 96.0 96.3 95.7 94.1 89.9 81.6 69.2 48.0 24.8 18.3 14.5 7.7 33.3 64.9 86.7 94.0 94.6 96.2 93.4 93.4 89.5 78.6 58.4 32.4 16.4 12.4 8.3 6.2 49.3 75.6 89.5 94.9 95.6 95.3 94.7 92.7 89.3 78.7 59.0 37.7 16.8 12.5 10.6 6.1 16.0 10.7 2.8 0.9 1.0 -0.9 1.3 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.6 5.3 0.4 0.1 2.3 -0.1 Table 1. Selected variables for labor force participation model, whites and blacks and others—Continued Average annual Participation rate, 1995 percent change Used in Actual 1984 Age/sex/ Difference Based on middle participation Middle race group extrapolating between scenario rate 1965-84 1977-84 scenario 1977-84 the two estimate trend estimates (Col. 1) (Col. 2) (Col. 3) (Col. 4) (Col. 5) (Col. 6) (Col. 7) Black and other men 16 to 17 ............... -0.71 -1.27 No change 17.7 14.8 26.9 12.9 -0.71 47.5 7.0 18 to 1 9 ............... -0.56 55.3 54.5 20 to 24 ............... -0.17 -0.65 77.2 75.3 76.6 1.3 25 to 29 ............... -0.46 -0.62 Half, 1965-84 87.1 80.3 84.2 3.9 30 to 3 4 ............... 80.4 -0.41 -0.83 89.5 87.2 6.8 " -0.24 35 to 39 .............. -0.66 90.8 83.5 89.5 6.0 40 to 44 .............. -0.71 -0.22 No change 90.3 82.5 90.3 7.8 " 45 to 49 ............... -0.35 0.28 87.3 90.4 87.3 -3.1 " 50 to 54 ............... -0.49 -0.56 81.7 81.9 75.7 6.0 " 55 to 59 ............... -0.90 -1.36 64.4 68.9 53.9 10.5 60 to 61 ............... -1.20 -1.34 1977-84 44.1 58.8 52.1 8.0 " 62 to 64 .............. -1.56 -0.66 43.4 36.1 3.4 39.5 " 65 to 69 ............... -1.14 -1.39 22.5 7.2 16.5 9.3 " 70 to 71 ............... -0.70 -0.56 16.7 10.5 11.5 1.0 " 72 to 74 ............... -0.59 -0.51 6.8 13.3 7.2 0.4 75 and over......... -0.33 -0.41 6.2 1.7 3.8 2.1 " " " also used because it emphasizes a period when the percentage of women entering and graduating from college has been relatively stable; prior to 1977, that percentage was increasing. For white women ages 25 to 49, the addfactors reflect a constraining of participation to be nearly equal and slightly above the rate for white women ages 20 to 24. These addfactors are necessary to impose a cross-sectional pattern that has been evolving over the past decade. Projected trends for younger “black and other women” are increased, compared to historical trends, for it is assumed that cross-sectional patterns for black and other women and white women will be comparable. For several reasons, the methodology for projecting black-only participation rates differs from the methodol ogy for projecting white and black-and-other rates. Data for blacks only were not collected before 1972; are not available at the same level of aggregation as for whites and for blacks and others; and the historical trends for blacks only are considerably more volatile than the trends for blacks and others. Most important, the blackonly estimates have to be consistent with the black-andother estimates. Thus to a great extent the addfactors for blacks-only reflect this last constraint. (See table 2.) estimated in a least squares regression equation. Column 3 shows the trends used in the middle scenario for initial calculation of a 1995 participation rate. Column 4 shows actual levels of participation in 1984. Column 5 shows participation for the year 1995 if the 1977-84 trend were to continue, 11 (years) times the short-run (1977-84) trend added to the 1984 rate. Column 6 is the projected participation rate for the bls middle scenario. Column 7 is the difference between the extrapolated and final estimates. These differences (usually labeled “addfactors” in an econometric model) reflect the judgments made by bls for each group, judgments based on cohort, crosssectional, and time-series analyses. As seen in table 1, the addfactors (column 7) for male teenagers are large; the addfactors for most white male groups between 25 and 59 years old are modest. For male teenagers, the addfactors reflect, among other things, substituting the long-run trend for the short-run trend. The long-run trends put less emphasis on the cyclical swings which have affected teenage participation in recent years. For prime-age white men, the addfactors reflect the constraining of the various rates to be nearly equal in 1995. This near equality has been a crosssectional pattern for men for several decades. For white women, ages 20 to 24, the short trend is used and not adjusted, largely because of the Census fertility assumption. Fertility trends play a significant role in determining female participation over time. Census’ assumed fertility trends for the 1984-95 period (a slight increase) parallel the trends for the 1977-84 period (a slight increase) and are considerably different from the 1965-77 trends (a substantial decline). The short trend is Total and civilian labor force The total labor force is calculated by multiplying the projected total labor force participation ratios by the Series II population projection; the civilian labor force is then projected by subtracting the Armed Forces from the total labor force. Two ratios are then calculated: The 63 ratio of the civilian labor force to the projected civilian noninstitutional population—the civilian labor force participation rate; and the ratio of the total labor force to the total noninstitutional population, the total labor force participation rate. Since the labor force participation rates as published for survey data are based on annual averages the rates are not strictly comparable with the historical data. Table 2. Selected variables for labor force participation model, blacks Age/sex/ race group Black women 16 to 17..................... 18 to 19..................... 20 to 24..................... 25 to 34..................... 35 to 44..................... 45 to 54..................... 55 to 59..................... 60 to 64..................... 65 and over............... Black men 16 to 17..................... 18 to 19..................... 20 to 24..................... 25 to 34..................... 35 to 44..................... 45 to 54..................... 55 to 59...................... 60 to 64..................... 65 and over............... Average annual percent change 1972-84 (Col. 1) 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.18 0.07 -0.15 -0.06 -0.04 -0.05 -0.14 -0.04 -0.04 -0.23 -0.12 -0.11 Used in middle scenario Actual 1984 participation rate (Col. 2) 1972-84 • Participation rate, 1995 Based on extrapolating 1972-84 trend Middle scenario estimate (Col. 3) (Col. 4) (Col. 5) Difference between the two estimates (Col. 6) 23.9 45.3 60.6 71.5 73.7 64.5 53.6 37.5 8.0 24.0 45.3 60.8 72.4 74.6 64.9 55.6 38.3 6.4 25.8 45.9 64.0 79.2 82.5 71.1 54.0 37.9 5.8 1.8 0.6 3.2 6.8 7.9 6.2 -1.6 -0.4 -0.6 26.9 56.1 79.1 88.9 90.1 83.8 68.4 48.3 13.7 26.2 55.7 78.5 87.4 89.7 83.4 65.9 47.0 12.5 24.8 52.3 76.3 87.1 89.2 82.3 63.6 42.8 7.4 -1.4 -3.4 -2.3 -0.3 -0.5 -1.1 -2.3 -4.2 -5.1 i M f1 11 11 II 11 11 II II • 1 II II 11 II II 11 64 Aggregate Economy tions are available, such as the population and other demographic variables projected by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and the labor force projected by bls. In addition, there are variables which the model was not designed to project or which do not follow predictable relationships. The first category includes such items as the rate of economic growth and the inflation rate in the countries that are major trading partners of the United States. Although world trade models exist which attempt to predict these variables for all major world trade areas, the Wharton Long-Term Model (and virtually all other long-term U.S. growth models) is not designed to make these kinds of projections. The second group includes variables which are subject to political influences, such as the supply and price of foreign crude oil. The purpose of this step in the projections process is to develop a consistent view of the aggregate economy under a reasonable set of policy assumptions. The major inputs to the aggregate model are the labor force projections developed in the first step of the process, projections of the population and other demographic variables developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, and assumptions developed by bls regarding likely future paths for fiscal and monetary policy instruments and for foreign economic growth. The major results passed along to the next step of the projections are the level of gross national product and its major demand components, as well as the level and distribution of aggregate employment in the economy. The flow of data into and out of this stage of the projections is detailed in table 1. The model used by the Bureau to develop aggregate economic projections is selected through a competitive procurement process. The most recent award was to Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc., for their Long-Term Model of the U.S. Economy. It should be noted that, although the Bureau uses the Wharton model for aggregate projections development, it does not use the projections developed by Wharton. The assump tions and results of the aggregate projections are devel oped entirely within bls. Running the model and reviewing the results Once a reasonable set of assumptions for all of the exogenous variables has been formulated, the second step is to run the model and review the results with the overall goal of consistency and reasonableness in mind. General ly, many runs of the model are required, each with changes to exogenous factors or to the underlying behavioral relationships, before a set of acceptable figures for final demand and employment is arrived at. Further runs are often performed as a result of the review of the results carried out at the industry and occupational levels of the projections. The final result is a set of consistent aggregate and industry projections of output, employment, and occupations in the U.S. econo my. Because a considerable amount of judgment enters into the process of deciding which results are “reasonable” and which are not, bls also produces alternative projec tions which attempt to focus on those areas of judgment which are the most critical or which are subject to the widest range of possibilities for future growth. The resulting alternatives generally present a range of possible growth paths wide enough to incorporate all the differing views. Specifying the assumptions The first step in developing a set of aggregate economic projections is to specify all of the exogenous assumptions necessary to solve the model. This includes fiscal policy items such as defense and nondefense purchases of goods and services, various Federal transfer programs, personal and corporate tax policy, and grants-in-aid to State and local governments. Assumptions are also made about factors affecting monetary policy. These would include the manner in which the Federal Reserve Board responds to real growth and inflation, as well as many of the components of the broadly defined money supply, M3. These exogenous assumptions include some variables for which other reliable and generally accepted projec 65 Table 1. Sources and disposition of data for macroeconomic stage of the projections I. Variables incorporated from earlier projection stages Level of the Armed Forces Male labor force, age 16 and over Female labor force, age 16 and over Male resident population, all age groups Female resident population, all age groups III. Variables passed from the macroeconomic model to later stages of the projections Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures New cars Trucks and recreational vehicles Used cars Tires, tubes, and accessories Durable furnishings and household equipment Other durable goods Clothing and shoes Food Gasoline and oil Fuel oil and coal Other nondurable goods Housing Telephone and telegraph Electricity Natural gas Water Other household operations Transportation Health-related expenditures Other services II. Variables incorporated as part of the macroeconomic stage of the projections Fiscal policy assumptions Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Defense purchases of goods and services Nondefense purchases of goods and services Subsidies less current surplus Compensation per employee Ratio of compensation to purchases Earnings covered by social insurance taxes Synfuel subsidies Transfers to foreigners Food stamp benefits Military retirement and veterans’ benefits Medicare Social Security Other transfer payments Value of a standard deduction Value of an individual exemption Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) taxable income Effective tax rate on homeowners Effective tax rate on landlords Total OASI tax rate Wage accruals less disbursements Interest paid to foreigners Gross private domestic investment Producers’ durable equipment, nonresidential Nonresidential structures Producers’ durable equipment, residential Residential farm structures Residential nonfarm structures Inventory change Farm Nonfarm, nonmanufacturing Manufacturing, non-auto Auto Monetary policy assumptions Overnight repurchase agreements Term repurchase agreements at commercial banks Other checkable deposits Money market mutual funds Term repurchase agreements at thrifts Overnight Eurodollars Travelers’ checks Free reserves Reserve requirement on demand deposits Reserve requirement on time deposits Interest rate on large certificates of deposit Exports of goods and services Food, feed, and beverages Consumer goods Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods Autos and parts Other merchandise Factor income Other services Foreign economic activity assumptions World gross domestic product World gross domestic product deflator Import deflator, non-energy Merchandise import deflator Exchange value of the dollar Imports of goods and services Food, feed, and beverages Consumer goods Crude petroleum Refined residuals Other refined petroleum products Natural gas Other industrial supplies and materials Capital goods Autos and parts Other merchandise Factor income Other services Energy price and availability assumptions Gross output price, crude petroleum and natural gas liquids Barrel price of imported crude oil, fob Gross output price, natural gas MCF price, imported natural gas Gross output price, coal Relative mine-mouth price, eastern vs. western coal 66 Table 1. Sources and disposition of data for macroeconomic stage of the projections— Continued Adjustment factor, household to establishment data Mining Durable manufacturing Nondurable manufacturing Transportation Utilities Communications Construction Finance, insurance, and real estate Wholesale and retail trade Other services Federal State and local III.—Continued Government Federal Defense purchases less compensation Defense compensation Nondefense purchases less compensation Nondefense compensation State and local Education purchases less compensation Education compensation Health, welfare, and sanitation purchases Safety purchases less compensation Safety compensation Other purchases less compensation Other compensation Employment Agricultural Self-employed Unpaid family workers Private household workers Miscellaneous Stock of plant and equipment, by industry Value-added, by industry Compensation, by industry Manufacturing workweek Unemployment rate 67 Final Demand ed by capital investment, which is composed of fixed investment and the change in business inventories. Fixed investment represents purchases of durable equipment and structures by business and nonprofit institutions and purchases of dwellings by persons. Change in business inventories represents the value of the increase or de crease in raw materials, semifinished goods, and finished goods held by business. Final demand is one of the three ways in which gross national product ( g n p ) can be viewed; the others are from the income side and from the output side. Final demand is national product distributed among final users, broadly categorized into four groups: Persons, business, foreign, and government. Final demand analysis is concerned with the distribution of g n p , first, by demand user and then, for each user, by producing industry. Final demand determines the output and thus the employment distribution of the economy. The purpose of the production process is the satisfaction of demand. Changes in the level and distribution of employment over time are a result of variation in the demand for goods and in the means of producing these goods. To measure the impact of both these changes, an input-output system is used. An input-output system describes the interrelation ships between industries that are necessary to create a final product. Each industry within the economy relies on a number of other industries to supply inputs for further processing, which are called intermediate prod ucts. When dollar purchases of inputs are expressed as a percent distribution, the intermediate purchases are re ferred to as coefficients of production. Input-output tables are used to measure the ramifications to all industries of changes in outputs. The demand for inter mediate products varies as the production process chang es over time due to changes in technology and other factors. In order to project employment levels by indus try for a future year, it is necessary to construct final demand bills of goods and an input-output table that reflect assumed changes. Foreign trade. Net exports represent the value of total exports of goods and services less the value of total imports of goods and services. Exports and imports are handled separately and are netted out only at a final stage to present a conceptually consistent level of g n p . Although exports are treated in the same manner as any other component of final demand, imports require a unique treatment. Total imports are divided into two categories: (1) imports by final users, as well as interme diate imports, which are competitive with domestic products; (2) imports which have no domestic counter parts, such as coffee and diamonds. Competitive imports are shown as a negative column of demand; that is, they are subtracted from final demand in order to yield demand for domestic output. For example, final and intermediate demand for automobiles includes some share that is met by foreign producers. By subtracting the value of foreign automobiles from total demand for autos, the demand for domestic automobiles is derived. This is done for every industry for which there are competitive imports; the result is the demand for domestic goods by each industry. Noncompetitive imports encompass products that have no domestic substitutes. Under existing production pro cesses, they cannot be replaced by domestic items without altering the nature of the product. These imports are directly allocated to the industries which use them as purchases from the noncompetitive import industry. Thus, coffee, which is not produced in the United States, is directly allocated to the food products industry, where it is processed before being sold to the personal consump tion expenditure category of final demand. Other kinds of noncomparable imported products, such as bananas and tapestries, which require no further processing are sold directly to final users and allocated to the “noncompara ble imports” industry. In the import bill of goods, there is a negative entry which equals the sum of these final Definitions Consumption. Demand on the part of persons is repre sented by personal consumption expenditures ( p c e ) ; persons are defined as individuals and certain nonprofit institutions. Purchases of dwellings are not considered part of the consumption sector; they are included in the business or capital investment sector. However, annual housing costs are reflected in p c e by the calculation of an imputed rental value of owner-occupied dwellings that is added to consumption outlays. Investment. Demand on the part of business is represent 68 manipulations required to construct input-output tables. Worksheets are included along with each input-output table describing the census sources from which each purchase is derived. The preparation of each new bill of goods includes changes or improvements to the concepts that were used to produce the previous bills, along with adjustments to the g n p accounts. These improvements involve bench mark changes to g n p as well as adjustments to remove the effect of purely definitional changes. In addition, the latest bills of goods were priced in 1977 dollars rather than in 1972 dollars. demand purchases of noncomparable products plus those purchases of noncomparable products used as inputs in the production process. Government. Government demand is defined as the goods and services purchased by all government units. Govern ment purchases are the direct spending on the part of government units to carry out their missions. Govern ment purchases differ from expenditures in that expendi tures include transfer payments, interest payments, and subsidy payments, all of which represent money given by government to other g n p sectors. Monies paid to groups or individuals who are the final spenders of these funds are included in those sectors of demand. Sales of government assets are accounted for as negative pur chases and thus offset the total value of direct govern ment purchases. For analytical purposes, government purchases are separated into two major functions— Federal Government and State and local government— each of which is further disaggregated. There are two categories in the Federal function—defense and nonde fense—and four in the State and local function—educa tion; health, welfare, and sanitation; safety; and all other. Consumption expenditures. Personal consumption ex penditures are compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( b e a ) of the Department of Commerce as part of its measurement of g n p . They are available annually from 1929, disaggregated into 82 components or types of consumption expenditures. Each of the 82 components is composed of goods similar in length of usefulness— durables, nondurables, and services. Each of the 82 p c e categories is distributed—via a “bridge” table—to certain of the 537 producing industries. It is useful to have data at this low level of allocation since it allows removal of effects due to temporary influences, such as shortages or surpluses of certain goods caused by weather, interrup tions in the movement of goods due to international events, strikes, and/or business cycles. Transitory events that affect the base year are neutralized to the extent necessary to avoid distortion of the historical series. Historical data In general, projections of final demand entail the compilation of historical data in a form that helps one determine the industry distribution of the economy in some future year. For past years, large amounts of data in various forms are available which must be fashioned to the requirements of the projections model. This fashion ing of data includes the combination of data series into the more comprehensive categories upon which the macro model is constructed as well as adjustments to better reflect basic changes in the economy. The data must incorporate the definitions and concepts of final demand upon which this system is constructed. The industry composition of final demand components is called a bill of goods. The creation of a bill of goods requires a level of detail that is available only from the economic censuses. Therefore, the historical series depends heavily on the census years of 1958, 1963, 1967, 1972, and 1977. The present set of projections uses 1977 as the base year, as did the previous set. However, an actual input-output table, rather than an estimated table, was available for these projections. In addition, supplementary data series were available through 1984, enabling the incorporation of the most recent economic trends into the projections. The construction of a bill of goods for years for which no input-output data are available is carried out by the replication of the procedures for developing the previous bill. Economic census data become available years prior to the publication of the input-output table for that census year, the delay resulting from the extensive data Equipment. Historical data for equipment investment are available annually in two distinct forms. The first shows producers’ durable equipment ( p d e ) as a bundle of investment goods and services which are purchased by individual industries to carry out the production process. The second shows the annual level of investment of the economy allocated to distinct types of capital goods categories. Data on investment by industry, the first basis, are obtained from the Office of Business Analysis ( o b a ) of the Department of Commerce for all 3-digit and for several 4-digit industries, which b l s aggregates to 107 consuming industries. A capital flows matrix converts these 107 bundles of investment goods into the producing industries required by the input-output system. Each industry’s production process calls for its own kinds of capital goods, reflected in a capital flows matrix. Capital flows tables are calculated only in input-output years and so have been constructed in current dollars for 1958, 1963, and 1972. Since 1977 was not available for this set of projections, an estimated table was created based on the 1972 table. The second form of annual p d e data is by 24 major types or categories such as aircraft, agricultural machin ery, passenger cars, and communication equipment. 69 Input-output conventions allocate inventory changes to the producing industry, no matter which industry holds the inventory. Using data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures, inventory-shipments ratios for historical years are derived and benchmarked to input-output conventions. Again, these values represent a composite of different types of investment goods which must be disaggregated into the various producing industries required by the input-output system. This disaggregation is accomplished by the use of a bridge table which distributes each major category to the input-output industry that actually produces the investment good. Producers’ durable equip ment by category is available in the National Income and Product Accounts ( n i p a ) annually in current and in 1972 dollars, while the bridge table is available only for inputoutput years. The data in this form have proven most useful in the construction of bills of goods for recent years and as a check in the creation of the 1977 capital flows matrix. Foreign trade. Unlike other sectors of final demand, historical data on imports and exports are plentiful and detailed. Instead of problems of disaggregation and estimation, foreign trade data must be aggregated. Data on both exports and imports can be obtained from the detailed merchandise trade statistics published annually by the Bureau of the Census. For exports, this includes data by sic product code and by Schedule B commodity code. For imports, data are available by SIC-based product code and by special U.S. tariff schedule code. For most industries, the foreign trade data rely on an analysis of the trends of imports and exports as shares of output. The ratios for 1978, 1979, 1981, 1982, and, for merchandise trade, 1977 are all compared. Data require ments after aggregation involve modification and aug mentation to reflect balance-of-payments and inputoutput conventions. Structures. Historical data for investment in structures are available from the Department of Commerce as part of the National Income and Product Accounts. Detail for nonresidential structures includes expenditures for indus trial, commercial, educational, and telephone and tele graph facilities. For residential structures, detailed data include expenditures such as for single-family homes, multi-family units, mobile homes, and farm housing units. In some cases, these detailed series have to be further disaggregated. For example, nonresidential com mercial buildings are disaggregated to office buildings, warehouses, garages and service stations, and stores and restaurants. In total, expenditures for 26 types of nonresi dential and 9 types of residential structures are developed in this set of projections. The new construction industry is different from the rest in that it produces only for final demand; no output is sold to other industries as an input for further processing. In the b e a input-output system, this is represented as an industry which has a column of inputs summing to the total output of the industry and equal to final demand, b l s , on the other hand, removes the new construction industry from the body of the table and represents the direct purchases as a bill of goods. A special industry called the new construction industry has been created to account for the value-added portion of construction. For the input-output years, the construc tion bill of goods is the same as the input column, while for the non-input-output years, changes are introduced into the input distribution to reflect economic and technological variations in the production process. Government. Historical data for government purchases of goods and services are available annually, for the two Federal and four State and local purchases categories in total only. Although some data by industry are available for defense purchases, little or no industry data are available for the other categories, thus making it difficult to disaggregate the series. This lack of industry data is not such a weakness as it might appear, however, since, with the exception of a few defense-related industries, the portion of any industry’s output going to satisfy govern ment demand is minor. Government is, however, a major consumer of new construction, and in this area, good historical series are available from the Bureau of the Census in the Construc tion Review. As discussed earlier, the b l s ’ procedure for handling of new construction differs from that of B E A . New construction bills of goods are created by applying appropriate control totals to the new construction input columns of the most recent input-output table. The new construction control totals at low levels of detail are derived by comparing data obtained from the Construc tion Review with construction values from the published input-output table. Adjustments made to the Construc tion Review data in input-output years are assumed to be constant for non-input-output years. Then, after the construction bills of goods are initially scaled to these controls, they are changed to reflect known technological changes and economic effects that would vary the pattern. For one other category of government purchases, Inventory change. The change in business inventories is very different from the other components of investment. First, there are entries, either negative or positive, in almost every industry except construction and services. In addition, the relative importance of any entry can change greatly from year to year. Historical data for the bill of goods for inventory change are available only for the input-output years. 70 compensation of employees, there is a consistent series of data. Real-dollar compensation is equal to the change in the number of employees from the base year plus a measure of the increase in productivity of these workers. Since the base year for the historical data is 1977, changes in employment levels from 1977 are used to move the series forward. S ervices Owner-occupied nonfarm dwellings; nonfarm rental expenditures; rental value of farm houses; other housing. Electric utilities Gas utilities Telephone services Electricity. Natural utilities. Telephone and telegraph. Water and sanitary services; domestic services; other household services. Automobile repair; road tolls; automo bile insurance less claims paid; bus and trolley car transportation; taxicabs; commuter rail transportation; railway transportation; intercity buses; airline transportation; other intercity trans portation. Other household operations Transportation services Projections Consumption expenditures. The macro model projects personal consumption expenditures at a 15-category level. These 15 categories are a composite of the 82 categories which are available annually from b e a . For the projected year, an input distribution is created for each of the 15 macro model categories that reflect the collapsing of the 82-category distribution down to 15. Each of the 15 categories is then modified to reflect technological and economic assumptions as well as trends that have been observed in industry input patterns and which are expected to continue over the projected time span. Health and other services The following table shows how the 82 detailed product categories collapse to the 15 major product groups. D u ra b le s Autos and parts Motor vehicles; auto parts. Furniture and household equipment Household furniture; household appli ances; china, glassware, and utensils; other durable household furnishings; radio, television receivers, records, and musical instruments. Other durable goods Jewelry and watches; ophthalmic and orthopedic products; books and maps; wheel goods, durable toys, and sports equipment. Food for off-premise consumption; purchased meals and beverages; food furnished employees; food produced and consumed on farms; alcoholic bev erages. Clothing and shoes Shoes; clothing and luggage; militaryissue clothing. Gasoline and oil Fuel oil and coal Other nondurables Gasoline and oil. Shoe cleaning and repair; laundering and dry cleaning; other clothing main tenance services; barbershops, beauty parlors, and baths; physicians; dentists; other professional services; private hospitals and sanitariums; health in surance; brokerage charges and invest ment counseling; bank service charges; imputed bank and credit union ser vices; expense of handling life insur ance; legal services; funeral and burial expenses; other business services; radio and television repair; motion picture admissions; legitimate theater admis sions; admissions to sport events; clubs and fraternal organizations; commer cial participant amusements; parimu tuel net receipts; other recreation ser vices; private higher education; private elementary and secondary education; other private education and research; religious and welfare activities; foreign travel by U.S. residents; expenditures in the U.S. by foreigners. Equipment. For the first time, b l s has developed and used a model for projecting equipment investment. The model is used for projecting nonresidential equipment only, but this accounts for over 98 percent of total producers’ durable equipment; residential equipment, the remaining 2 percent, is not within the scope of the investment model. N o n d u r a b le s Food and beverages Housing The model deals with investment trends for 107 consuming industries—87 manufacturing and 20 non manufacturing industries. The most important element of this investment model is its industrial detail. Other fuels. Tobacco products; toilet articles and preparations; semidurable house fur n is h in g s; c le a n in g an d lig h tin g su p p lies; sta tio n e r y and w r itin g supplies; drug preparations and sun dries; m agazines, newspapers, and sheet music; nondurable toys and sporting goods; flowers, seeds, and potted plants; expenditures abroad by Government personnel; personal re mittances to foreigners. Investment trends by industry are projected in three stages. The first step is projecting equipment trends by consuming industry. To operate this model, three explan atory variables are required: The lagged value of output by industry, capacity, and cost of capital. A behavioral equation to estimate equipment investment is specified as: 71 output conventions, two approaches are required: (1) factors or scalers; and (2) an equipment flows matrix. First, factors are used for adjusting the investment estimates of step 1 initially stated by industry of owner, into the estimates by industry of user. The o b a ’s industry investment series is based on data which reflect owner ship, while the equipment flows matrix is based on data which reflect users. They differ because of leasing. Second, the equipment flows matrix disaggregates an industry’s equipment to a bundle of investment goods and services, which are purchased by individual indus tries. The estimates of equipment investment by industry, when multiplied by the equipment flows matrix, yield the estimates of investment goods and services by type, that is, p d e bills of goods. The third step of the model is to make the investment estimates consistent with the macro data. Several defini tional inconsistencies exist among the many investment data sources. Notably, p d e underlying the n i p a includes purchases of government surplus assets, passenger autos owned by households that are used for business purposes, and the capitalized trade margins on purchases of used equipment assets; o b a ’ s series excludes these compo nents. As a result, the n i p a and o b a ’ s equipment investment differ both in level and in trends. In addition, scrap, used, and secondhand goods are not within the investment flows matrix, because this matrix deals with the purchases of new equipment only. Thus, in the third step of the model, additional calculations are required. By adding up the initial estimates from step 2 and scaling to the control totals, this step eliminates the inconsisten cy among the n i p a estimates, equipment flows matrix on input-output conventions, and the o b a equipment esti mates. In essence, this step scales the investment esti mates by industry to the investment estimates from a macro solution. Only total nonresidential equipment controls are derived from the macro model over the projection period. For this reason, a single investment control is allocated to producing industries for the projected years. As mentioned earlier, residential durable equipment of landlords is not within the scope of the investment model. In the macro model, investment in residential equipment is also treated as an individual investment component. Therefore, this category is projected based on historical trends as a share of total p d e , and is then scaled to the projected control of the macro model. Finally, feedback from the review of the result requires extensive reworking of data. This is required especially for the computer industry, because all major industries are expected to make heavy commitments to computers during the next 10 years. First, the equipment flows matrix is modified by changing the relationship between computers and the other equipment which industry purchases. Second, the investment estimates of 107 Et = ao + aiY,.] + a2Ct + a3Pt + U t Where E Y C P U : gross investment, equipment, by industry : output, by industry : capacity utilization, economywide : cost of capital, economywide : error term and ao is a constant term at, a2, a3 are parameters t indicates the time period. Equipment data for this model, as mentioned earlier, are from the Department of Commerce. The projections system deals with 156 industries—95 manufacturing, 49 nonmanufacturing, 5 government enterprises, and 7 special industries. However, equipment data for nonman ufacturing industries are available only at the less detailed 2-digit sic level; equipment data for some manufacturing industries, such as sugar and confection ery products, are lumped together as a single industry. Also, government enterprises and special industries are not included in this investment model because their acquisition of investment goods is not part of p d e in the National Income and Product Accounts. Output data are from the b l s industry data base, and are collapsed to 107 industries. For manufacturing industries, capacity is measured by capacity utilization rates from the Federal Reserve Board. For nonmanufac turing, capacity is measured by unemployment rates from the Current Population Survey. The cost of capital is measured in one of two ways: (1) the ratio of the p d e deflator to the g n p deflator; and ( 2 ) the “real” corporate bond interest rate, which is computed as: corporate bond interest rate = (coraaa *(l-cortax /corpro ))-chppde Where coraaa cortax corpro chppde = = = = Moody’s AAA corporate new issue rate corporate profits tax liability corporate profits before tax change in p d e deflator The cost of capital also is obtained from the macro model data base. For these projections, annual time series data from 1958 to 1981, in 1977 constant dollars, are used to estimate real equipment investment at the industry level. Several specifications of the investment equation are estimated for each industry.1This is required because the lag structure for output varies by industry. For example, the public utilities industry has a long lag structure, while the motor vehicles industry has a relatively short lag structure. Also, two price variables are experimented with, to ensure a reasonable coefficient for the cost of capital. The second step of this model is to project equipment purchases by industry of origin. To convert the estimates of step 1 into producing industries of step 2 on input- 72 and materials; capital goods; autos and parts; other merchandise; and services. Imports consist of the same components as exports, with the addition of an eighth component, petroleum and petroleum products. Adjust ment factors are calculated for the import and export components of the final demand sector of the macro model. These factors are applied to the import/export control values from the macro model, in order to translate from 1972 n i p a concepts to 1977 input-output concepts. The industry levels of imports and exports are added and scaled to the total values of the macro model. For most industries, it is assumed that the ratios of imports and exports to output would continue to change according to past trends. Specific assumptions are made for some labor-intensive industries, such as apparel products and textiles. Imports of these products have grown substantially as a share of the total output of these items purchased in the United States. This rise is assumed to continue, as developing countries seek larger shares of the U.S. market. purchasing industries are then run through the adjusted matrix, giving a p d e of 156 producing industries. Chang es in the distribution of computers by industry are made repeatedly until the demand for computers in all indus tries is equal to the level of investment that is required by the distribution of output. Structures. Initial estimates of the projected bills of goods for structures are made at the level of the most detailed categories. First, data from 1958 to 1984 are used to project the movement of these detailed categories into the future. Second, these estimates are transformed to a set of final demand producing industries. Changes that could be expected in the input structure are incorporated in the projected bills of goods. The initial projections are aggregated and evaluated against the projected controls of the macro model. Further adjustments are made as necessary after review. Inventory change. Projections of inventory change by producing industry are based primarily on projected industry outputs. A constant percentage of output for each industry is used as an initial estimate of the bills of goods. Industries which have a perishable product are adjusted to be more in line with past levels. The initial projections are modified as necessary in later stages in the projection process. Less effort is expended on the allocation of inventory changes to the producing indus tries, because this investment category is relatively unim portant in long-term projections. Government. The macro model projects purchases in total for the two Federal categories of demand and for the four State and local categories. Total government employment is also projected and allocated to the Federal and State and local functions. The labor force projections include an estimate of the level of the Armed Forces in the projected year, which must be added to the projection of Federal civilian employment to arrive at an estimate of Federal purchases of compensation. The projected compensation purchases are the change in level from 1977 to the projected year of the number of employees plus the change in productivity, resulting in a 1977 dollar value. Projections of new construction purchases are derived for each of the six government categories based on assumptions affecting future needs on the part of each government category as well as trends which are observ able by a study of historical data. These construction controls are then applied to the projected industry distribution of each government construction category. The remaining level of purchases, i.e., total purchases less compensation and new construction, for each category is distributed to the producing industries. This distribution reflects adjustments for technological and economic change. Foreign trade. The projection of competitive imports by industry is mainly based on analysis of existing and expected shares of the domestic market. Trade agree ments which might restrict imports are also taken into account. The value of total exports is distributed by industry, primarily on the basis of time trends and expected world conditions. It is necessary to rely on simple projection techniques to project exports by industry because long term estimates of foreign income and prices are not widely available. There are seven components for exports and eight components for imports in the final demand sector of the macro model. The seven export components are: Foods, feeds, and beverages; consumer goods; industrial supplies The variables in (1.1) through (1.9) are specified as follows: E, * gross equipment investment Y, = output KY, = 1/2*Y, . , + 1/2*Y , . 2 LYt = 3/6*Y, . , + 2/6*Yt . 2 + 1/6*Y, . 3 C, = capacity utilization or unemployment rate OC, - 3/4*C, + 1/4*C, . , PP, = pde deflator, / gnp deflator, IN, = (coraaa,*(l - cortax, /corpro, )) - chppde, ‘N in e sp ecification s o f the in vestm en t equ ation are used as: (1.1) E, - ao + a,*KY, + a2*OC, + a3*PP, (1.2) E, = ao + a,*KY, + a2*OC, + a3*IN, (1.3) E, = ao + a,*LY, + a2*OC, + a3*PP, (1.4) E, = ao + a,*LY, + a2*OC, + a3*IN, (1.5) E, = ao + a,*Y, _ , + a2*Y, „ 2 + a3*OC, + a4*PP, (1.6) E, = ao + a,*Y, , + a2*Y, _ 2+ a3*OC, + a4*IN, (1.7) E, = ao + a ,* Y ,. , + a2*Y, 2+ a3*Y, _ 3+ a4*OC, + a,*PP, (1.8) E, = ao + a,*Y, . , + a2*Y, . 2+ a3*Y, . 3+ a4*OC, + a3*IN, (1.9) E, = ao + a,*Y, , + a2*Y, _ 2 + a,*Y, . , + a4*OC, 73 FOOTNOTES—Continued are estimated over the 1958-76 period, and then equipment investment is forecast over the 1977-81 period. The average error over the years 1978 to 1981 is computed, and the equation yielding the lowest average error is the one used in the projection model. where coraaa, cortax, corpro, and chppde are specified in the same manner as described in the text. To choose among the nine equations for each industry, all equations 74 Input-Output Model specific method used for some of the products was changed for 1977. The third major change was the inclusion of “coverage adjustments” in the calculation of 1977 output for many commodities. The impact of this was generally minor, although for a specific industry the impact might be large. The last major change was to update the dollar base of the table to 1977. The make table, or market shares matrix, mechanically redefines many of the secondary products using an “industry technology” approach. This means that the secondary products are assumed to have the same technology as the primary products of the industry where they were produced. When redefining these commodities, the structure of the producing industry is left unchanged, but the structure of the primary producer is modified to account for the differing technologies of the different industries which may be producing the commodity. Other secondary products which were not included in the make table were redefined using a “commodity technolo gy” approach. This assumes that the secondary products differed greatly from primary products of the industry in which they were produced. For these, the input structure of the primary industry was used to adjust the input structure of the producing industry. These specific redefi nitions were taken care of in the use table. Input-output relationships may be expressed either in producers’ values or purchasers’ values. Both b l s and b e a value inputs purchased by a consuming industry at the price the producer received. Trade margins and transportation costs associated with these inputs appear as direct purchases by the consuming industry from the trade and transportation industries. Since the inputoutput tables are in producers’ values, all trade and transportation margins have to be stated as demand on those sectors. This method allows b l s to maintain the detail on actual purchases of specific materials—mate rials are not sold to or purchased from the trade industry. The output of these trade sectors is measured in terms of total margins—operating expenses plus profits. The transactions recorded in the input-output tables are based on data contained in the Census of Manufac tures and the other economic censuses. The Bureau of the Census assigns establishments to an industry based on the establishment’s primary output—those products or services which produce the largest part of its revenue. Many establishments also produce other products which After final demand purchases are projected, the inter mediate demand, or additional output of each industry that is required to support the projected final demand, is calculated using an input-output model. This model provides a framework for projecting industry outputs, or the total of final demand and intermediate sales required of each industry. An input-output “use” table is a rectangular matrix in which the entries represent the transactions of each sector with all other sectors. Each row of the matrix shows the sales of each commodity (the primary product of the industry with the same name) to every consuming industry and to final demand. The sum of all the entries in a row represents commodity output. Each column of the matrix shows the inputs of commodities to that industry which were used to produce its output. The sum of purchased inputs plus value added (returns to capital, labor, and entrepreneurial ability) equals the output of the industry. A second table, the “make” table, is a matrix which shows the production of commodities by each industry. Each row of the matrix shows which commodities that industry produces, and each row sums to industry output. Each column of the matrix represents a commod ity and shows which industries produce the commodity. Each column sums to commodity output. The 1977 b e a input-output study represents a change from the 1972 and earlier benchmark input-output studies. The 1977 study was used as a basis for the revised b l s projections, even though changes in the study and timing difficulties limited b l s ’ ability to create a times series of consistent input-output tables for this set of projections. Midway through the process, an attempt was made to estimate a 1984 input-output table with preliminary data. This resulted in an unbalanced estimate of 1984 final demand, output, and intermediate demand. This table allowed b l s to begin to estimate the changes which had occurred since 1977, although the inability to balance the system means that it had not properly captured all of these changes. The changes introduced in the 1977 input-output study were of four major kinds. The most obvious change was the use of 1977 sic codes, which resulted in a few changes in industry definitions. A second change was in the handling of some of the secondary products. Al though secondary products are always redefined, the 75 study, so the basis of those projections was the 1972 b e a study and an estimate of the 1977 relationships prepared by b l s . When the 1977 b e a table was released, it was found that the two tables were significantly different. Thus, the first step was to examine the old projections for 1995 in light of the b e a 1977 table to determine what the 1995 coefficient would have been had the 1977 b e a data been available. This necessitated the repricing of the previous projections from 1972 dollars to 1977 dollars. As mentioned previously, there were numerous conceptu al changes which further distorted the comparison of the 1972 and 1977 b e a input-output tables. Further changes were made to the 1995 coefficients based on sources (articles, industry studies, etc.) which had recently become available. Then, projected final demands were combined with the projected input-output coefficients to generate projected outputs, which were then evaluated based on historical data and expected relationships. This led to further revisions in the project ed tables and final demands for 1995. b l s was also estimating data for 1984, and, when this was available, the 1995 projections were again evaluated in light of these data. In some cases, it was found that coefficients had changed more between 1977 and 1984 than had been thought. This necessitated further changes to the projec tions. Coefficients were projected in several diffent ways. Industry studies were evaluated, and coefficents in specif ic industries were modified based on the expectations of the industry analyst. In other industries, expected chang es were incorporated by making changes across the row of the table (for example, plastics were expected to grow at the expense of metals). When analysis of projected outputs indicated a problem, specific inputs were exam ined to determine a pattern of change which may have been missed earlier. The same total requirements tables, calculated to show industry output required to meet demand for commodi ties, were used for each of the alternative models. The use and make tables consistent with each of these scenarios were calculated, and are available upon request. are different from the primary output—secondary prod ucts. A commodity is the primary production of the industry with the same name, but may be produced anywhere in the economy. Final demand is expressed in terms of commodities, as is the demand for goods used in production. But these commodities may be produced by a variety of industries. The market shares matrix, derived from the make table, indicates what proportion of each commodity is produced in each industry. This allows an increase in demand for a commodity to increase produc tion in each industry which produces it. The Economic Growth projections for 1995 involved three sets of input-output tables—1977, 1984, and 1995. All tables were prepared in 1977 constant dollars. The 1977 tables represent an aggregation of the 537-order b e a tables to the 156 b l s sectors. The major difference in the b l s and b e a tables resulted from the movement of new construction materials purchases to final demand and the inclusion of a dummy industry to handle compensation and value added in new construction. The 1984 tables were estimated in 1977 dollars, based upon the 1977 b e a tables and 1977 input-output concepts. The 1995 tables were also projected in constant dollars based upon the 1977 and 1984 tables. Coefficients are projected to change for several rea sons—technological change is an important factor, but not the only one. Changes in product mix or relative prices can also cause significant changes in coefficients. Because the b l s industries are aggregates of the more detailed b e a sectors, a simple change in the relative importance of those sectors can have a large impact on the coefficients. Also, as the relative price or availability of substitute inputs change, substitutions might occur. The methodology for projecting 1995 input-output coefficients was somewhat different from that used for previous projections. As this was to be an update, rather than a completely new set of projections, an attempt was made to adjust the projections previously released in November 1983. This was more difficult to do than it would seem. The first set of 1995 projections was prepared before the release of the b e a 1977 input-output 76 Industry Output and Employment ters and economies of scale, as well as for the effect of technical change on the demand for labor. As a practical matter, however, we do not have sufficient industry-specific historical data to adequately estimate these parameters. In the bls model, the regres sion equation for labor productivity relates total hours paid by industry to the output of the industry, the relative price of labor (real wages), a measure of technol ogy (the output/capital ratio), and capacity utilization (as approximated by the unemployment rate). It is expressed in log form: The estimates of employment by industry are projected by a labor model developed by bls. The labor model has an equation for each of the Economic Growth sectors for which there is employment, 149 in all. The results of the labor model are useful in and of themselves to describe future job trends among industries, and are also used as inputs in the industry-occupation matrix, which projects employment by occupation. Specification of labor model The labor model uses as one of its prime variables the industry output projections developed in the preceding steps of the Economic Growth projections system. The expected level of demand for an industry’s product (both final and intermediate demand) is a key determinant of the demand for labor in that industry. Other variables affecting the demand for labor are the relative cost of labor compared to the costs of other inputs (such as capital), the state of technology (as approximated by the output/capital ratio), and the degree of capacity utiliza tion (which reflects the stage of the business cycle). Projections of these last three variables are obtained from the macroeconomic model, described earlier. Altogether, the four variables determine the productivity of labor for each industry, that is, how much labor will be required to produce the output determined by the final demand and input-output projections. In order to make this projection, the labor model estimates a regression equation for each industry. These regression equations have as their theoretical underpin ning a production function, which is a technological relationship describing the output that can be produced in each industry with a certain combination of labor and capital inputs.1 The production function implies that labor and capital can be substituted for one another to produce a given level of output. The actual combination of labor and capital inputs will depend upon their relative costs. Theoretically, the production function can be solved for the labor input by respecifying the equation and setting the marginal product of labor equal to the marginal price of the labor input (since under conditions of profit maximization and perfect competition, the marginal product of any input equals its marginal cost). One could, at least conceptually, solve the estimated coefficients of such a model for the substitution parame InL = ao + a, ln(w/p) + a2 InY + a3 ln(Y/K ) + a4 InCAP where L w p Y Y /K CAP = = = = = = labor the wage rate all prices output the state of technology capacity utilization. To estimate the values of the coefficients ao, at, a2, a3, and a4, standard regression techniques are used. The relative wage term and the output/capital term are only available for 26 industrial sectors (see table 1), and the measure of capacity utilization is economywide. Thus, the only industry-specific variable in the labor demand model is the output estimate. The values of the coeffi cients for each of the 149 industries in the model are available upon request. Solving the model Once the values of the independent variables are projected by the macroeconomic and final demand and input-output portions of the model system, the equations for industry hours can be solved. The dependent variable in the labor model is wage and salary worker hours for each industry (or total worker hours for the agriculture and household sectors). To convert worker hours to number of jobs, a projection of average annual hours is made for each sector based on the projection of the average workweek from the macro model. Worker hours divided by average annual hours yields wage and salary employment for each sector. The individual industry results are then scaled to total wage and salary employment in durable goods manufacturing, nondurable goods manufacturing, and nonmanufactur ing, which are obtained from the macro model. Projections of self-employed and unpaid family worker 77 Table 1. Industry sectors in Wharton macroeconomic model Wharton sector 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. of higher productivity growth than in the recent past. The control totals for the employment from the macro model, as a consequence of the higher productivity assumption, forced the employment projections of the labor model to be scaled back 12 percent across all durable manufacturing industries and 22 percent across all nondurable manufacturing industries in 1995. In addition to the general assumption about a major shift to new technologies in all industries, specific industry assumptions were made to further adjust the results of the labor model projections. These additional assumptions are described in detail in the next chapter. Corresponding Economic Growth sectors Agriculture, forestry, fisheries.......... Mining........................................................ Lumber and wood products................... Furniture and fixtures............................. Stone, clay, and glass ............................. Primary metals.......................................... Fabricated metals..................................... Machinery ................................................. Electrical and electronic equipment...... 10. Motor vehicles.......................................... 11. Other transportation equipment and miscellaneous manufacturing.............. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. Instruments and related products......... Food and kindred products................... Tobacco.................................................... Textile mill products................................ Apparel....................................................... Paper products.......................... ............... Printing and publishing.......................... Chemicals.................................................. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. Petroleum products ................................. Rubber and plastics................................. Leather....................................................... Transportation........................................... Communications....................................... Public utilities........................................... Commercial and other............................. 1-7 8-14 35-38 39-40 60-64 65-69 16, 70-76 77-87 88-96 97 17, 98-102, 108-110 103-107 18-27 28 29-32 33-34 41-42 43-45 46-53 Disaggregation of results Once the employment projections for the 149 Econom ic Growth sectors are final, they are used to develop the projections of occupational employment. The data for the 149 sectors are disaggregated to the 3-digit sic level, totaling 368 detailed industries. This is accomplished by independently developing time series regression estimates for each of the 368 industries, and then scaling the results to the 149 sectors in the labor model. These adjusted projections for the 368 detailed industries serve as the basis for the industry-occupational projections, which are described in the next chapter. 54 55-57 58-59 111-117 118-119 120-122 15, 123-128, 130-145, 147-149, 152, 155 jobs for each industry are based on the wage and salary projection plus a projection of the trend in the relation ship between wage and salary employment and selfemployment. The results are also scaled to a control total from the macro model. Equations are also estimated for seven farm sectors, but for total hours only, not wage and salary hours. The seven farm industries are then scaled to total farm employment from the macro model. Historical data used in estimation of labor model To estimate the values of the coefficients for the four variables in each industry’s labor demand equation, standard regression techniques are used. The values of these coefficients for each of the 149 industries in the model are available upon request. The data used in estimating the coefficients of the 149 industry equations in the labor model are time series for the years 1958-83. A description of the data follows. Adjustments to the model results For some industries, the labor model equations may not be appropriate and may produce results that are incongruous with past experience or with widely accept ed expectations about the future. This comes about most frequently in industries which do not operate near the conditions of profit maximization (or economic equilibri um) required for estimating the production function. Adjustments are usually required when the historical and projected output trends are very divergent; when the output and employment series are unrelated; when new technologies are expected; and when the labor productiv ity trend may imply negative employment. These adjust ments are implemented with the use of addfactors. In the set of projections presented at the beginning of this bulletin, several specific assumptions were made to override the initial results of the labor model. The most important was a general assumption in the macro model Labor Labor, the dependent variable in the labor model, is measured in terms of worker hours: the number of jobs times the average number of hours per year. The labor model is estimated with wage and salary worker hours for each industry in the private nonagricultural sector and in government enterprises, and with total worker hours (wage and salary plus self-employed and unpaid family workers) in the farm sectors and in private households. Government enterprises are included in the labor model as separate industries, but general govern ment workers are not included since general government employment is projected in the macroeconomic model, not in the industry-level labor model. Data on jobs and hours for nonagricultural wage and salary workers come from the Bureau’s Current Employ ment Survey (the establishment survey). Data for other classes of workers, which include the self-employed, 78 on the 1980 Census, affected data for the years 1971 to unpaid family workers, agriculture, and private house hold workers, come from the Bureau’s Current Popula tion Survey (the household survey). The data from the two surveys are published monthly by b l s in Employ ment and Earnings.2 The wage and salary data from the Current Employ ment Survey are disaggregated by industry based on the 1972 version of the Standard Industrial Classification (sic) . Within manufacturing, these data are usually available for 4-digit sic industries. In some nonmanufac turing industries, however, there is not enough detail to construct employment measures for an Economic Growth sector. In these instances, the Bureau’s unem ployment insurance data base provides the missing detail. This employment data base is compiled by State agencies from reports of establishments covered under State unemployment insurance laws. These tabulations cover about 98 percent of employees on nonagricultural pay rolls in the United States, and are available at the 4-digit sic level. The paid hours of nonagricultural wage and salary workers are the number of jobs within an industry times average weekly hours in the industry, multiplied by 52. Average weekly hours for production or nonsupervisory workers are available from the establishment survey. For nonproduction workers in goods-producing industries, the hours data assume a 39.7-hour week for all years in the durable goods industries and 39.3 hours in nondura ble goods. For supervisory workers in service-producing industries, the workweek is assumed to be the same as for nonsupervisory workers. In some cases, employment and hours data are not published in Employment and Earnings for years prior to 1972 because of substantial changes between the 1967 and 1972 Standard Industrial Classification systems. In these instances, 1958-71 data for the Economic Growth sectors were linked to data previously published, ensur ing a consistent employment time series. The last 3 years of the employment and hours data from the establishment survey are preliminary. Each year, the last 3 years of data are benchmarked to the unemployment insurance data mentioned earlier. Estimates for other classes of workers besides wage and salary workers are derived annually from the Cur rent Population Survey ( c p s ) , or household survey. The c p s provides employment information on self-employed and unpaid family workers, private household workers, total agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and agricultural services. The distribution of the agricultural jobs by type of commodity (i.e., meat, dairy, cotton, etc.) is derived from Department of Agriculture data on hours worked by enterprise group. The data for other classes of workers from the c p s are revised as information from each new decennial Census of Population becomes available. The last revision, based 1982. Output Current-dollar output is measured as gross domestic output, or duplicated output. It is a gross or duplicated measure in that it includes not only the value added in each industry but also the value of all intermediate inputs into the production process. Output is expressed in producer’s value, exclusive of trade or transportation margins. (These margins are part of the output of the trade and transportation industries.) Output is measured as production (including inventory change) by a group of establishments as classified by their sic code, and in cludes primary and some secondary products and miscel laneous receipts. This measure of industry output differs from a measure of commodity output because of the inclusion of these secondary products. Commodity out put is defined as the production of the characteristic products of the corresponding industry, wherever made. Historical output data are developed from a variety of sources. For manufacturing, the time series is based on the value of shipments plus inventory change from the Census or Annual Survey of Manufactures for each 4digit sic industry within the Economic Growth sector. For nonmanufacturing industries, many different sources are used, including Agricultural Statistics, the Minerals Yearbook, Internal Revenue Service data, and numerous others. A description of the detailed methods used to develop time series output for each of the nonmanufac turing industries is available upon request. For every industry, the output time series data are benchmarked to the industry gross output measures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ input-output table for the year 1977. Benchmarking is done to adjust the data so that it is conceptually and statistically consistent with input-output accounting. For example, one important adjustment is the inclusion of manufacturers’ excise taxes in the producer’s value of commodity shipments. In addition, some departures from the strict establishment definition of industry output are made in the inputoutput table. For example, in the seven agricultural industries and in the two construction industries, prod ucts are grouped by type and thus reflect a commodity, not an establishment, classification. Another modifica tion involves redefining certain types of secondary prod ucts to the industries which are the primary producers of the products. An example is electric energy produced and sold by the manufacturing, mining, or railroad industries; it is redefined to the electric utility industry. Similarly, rental activities of all industries are redefined to the real estate industry; manufacturing in trade and services industries is redefined to the appropriate manufacturing industry; construction work performed by all other industries is redefined to the construction industry. This 79 approach is used where the input structure for the redefined commodity is significantly different from the producing industry’s input structure.3 To develop the benchmark for each industry, a ratio of the domestic output from the b e a input-output table to the current-dollar output measure is calculated for 1977. This ratio is then multiplied by the base output measures for the years 1958-83 to derive benchmarked currentdollar output. The benchmarking is even more significant for non manufacturing than for manufacturing industries, since it is more difficult to develop precise output measures that conform exactly to input-output definitions of output for nonmanufacturing industries. In many sectors, several data series are combined to try to measure all the different types of output included. For example, the output of the local transit industry includes the services of taxicabs, intracity buses, mass transit rail systems, and long-distance or intercity buses. A different data source is used for each, and each piece is individually benchmarked to its corresponding 1977 input-output value, obtained from unpublished b e a data. The definitions and conventions used to develop the input-output tables deal only with nominal or currentdollar output, since each table is concerned only with the structure of the economy at a given time. However, since this Office is concerned with economic growth or change over time, it must adjust the time series of nominal output for price change to arrive at real output. To be consistent with the National Income and Product Ac counts, the price measures used to derive real output are current-year-weighted. The price data rely heavily on the detail of the industry sector price indexes and the consumer price indexes prepared and published by b l s . The output data for the 1995 projections were based on constant 1977 prices. To develop constant-dollar output for manufacturing industries, the shipments and inventory change data at the 4-digit level (before benchmarking) are deflated by a 4-digit industry sector price index, then the 4-digit values are summed for each Economic Growth sector. This sum is then divided by the unbenchmarked current-dollar output total for that industry to yield a weighted deflator. The deflator is then multiplied by the benchmarked current-dollar output figure to arrive at benchmarked constant-dollar output. To develop constant-dollar output for nonmanufactur ing industries, a variety of price deflators are used, including b l s consumer price indexes and b e a gross product originating deflators. model) for each of 26 industrial sectors. Table 1 shows the Economic Growth Sectors which correspond to each of these 26 macro sectors. The output/capital ratio is also developed for the 26 sectors in the Wharton model. The numerator uses constant-dollar value added, and the denominator is a constant-dollar measure of the capital stock, determined by the accumulation of investment less depreciation. It is expected that, in future versions of the labor model, this term will be linked to the investment model recently developed by b l s for 107 industries (described in the section on final demand). Capacity utilization is approximated by the unemploy ment rate, which is used to capture the stages of the business cycle. As the economy moves toward full employment, capacity utilization tends to be high, while in recession, capacity is typically underutilized. This variable is projected in the macro model. Limitations of historical employment and output data Users should be aware that in many cases historical data have been estimated because adequate information is not available on an annual basis. Further, although consistency has been aimed at, employment and output series could not be made conceptually consistent in all cases. In addition, the last few years of the historical output data for each sector are preliminary and may not be as reliable as the rest of the time series. The Annual Survey of Manufactures, which is the basis for the output data for the manufacturing industries, has about a 2-year time lag. For service industries, the time lag of the data sources varies. Outputs based on i r s data may contain a 3-year lag; other data sources such as agricultural statistics, transportation revenues, or utilities production may have only a 1-year lag. When the original source data are not yet available, annual updates are made with Federal Reserve Board indexes of production for manu facturing and mining industries, or with gross product originating data from b e a for all other industries. Users should also be aware that the historical labor productivity measures implicitly contained in the Eco nomic Growth industry time series data are not the Bureau’s official industry indexes. The official indexes of historical labor productivity are prepared by the Office of Productivity and Technology. Those indexes are devel oped in considerably more detail than the data used for the Economic Growth labor model. For a description of the methods used in compiling the official measures, see Productivity Measures for Selected Industries, annual editions, Bureau of Labor Statistics.4 However, for inputoutput work, the Office of Economic Growth’s measures are useful. Other variables Relative wage is measured as the ratio of current-dollar compensation to total value added. This variable is projected in the macroeconomic model (the Wharton 80 —FOOTNOTES— Definitions and Conventions of the 1972 Input-Output Study (Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 1980). A similar bulletin, based on the 1977 input-output study of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is expected to be published shortly. 4The most recent of these annual bulletins is Productivity Measures for Selected Industries, 1958-84, Bulletin 2256 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1986). ‘For more information on production functions, the reader can consult a variety of econometric textbooks. As an example, see Michael D. Intriligator, Econometric Models, Techniques, and Applications (Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1978), pp. 262-280. 2See Explanatory Notes in the monthly periodical Employment and Earnings for a full description of the establishment and household data. 3For more information on the concept of industry output, see 81 Industry Assumptions production lines incorporate industrial robots and allow much greater automation for processes such as welding, fastening, material handling, painting, assembly, and inspection. The “just-in-time” inventory method, assisted by computer control, was also assumed to become more widespread. The computer was assumed to play an increasing role in offices, too, as well as in factories. Computerized recordkeeping and office automation were projected to become even more diffused than they are now. In addition to the general assumption about a major shift to these new technologies in all industries, specific industry assumptions were made to further adjust the initial results of the various model projections. These additional industry-specific assumptions are described in detail in table 1. In the current set of projections, several assumptions were made to override the initial results of the final demand models, the input-output projections, and the labor model. One of the most important for employment was a general assumption of higher productivity growth than in the recent past. Projections of lower real interest rates, a stable, noninflationary economy, and pent-up demand for new capital equipment postponed during the 1980-82 recessionary period led to a projection of a strong increase in investment spending for capital equip ment. This new capital equipment, in turn, leads to higher productivity growth, especially in manufacturing. It was assumed that much of the new capital spending would be for high-technology innovations, such as the new, highly engineered, computer-controlled production systems already in use in some industries. These flexible Table 1. Specific industry assumptions for 1995 projections Industry Assumptions Industry Assumptions Forestry and fishery products Negative government demand reflects sales from national timberlands. Logging will be adversely affected by a reduction in the average size of houses, a result of energy conservation and smaller families. Crude petroleum and natural gas Iron and ferroalloy ores mining Slower growth reflects a continuation of the shift away from dependence on these metals. Copper ore mining Copper production is expected to be ad versely affected by the increased use of fiber optics and satellites for communica tions. Nonferrous metal ores mining Assumes increased use of platinum in the making of glass and as a catalyst in cleaning auto emissions and in petroleum refining. Increased use of lead batteries will not overcome the impact of decreased use of silver in photography; silver is being replaced by electronic storage and display of both motion and still pictures. Also assumes the continued movement of the aluminum mining industry to less devel oped nations. Imports projected to rise to almost half of total output. Slow output growth reflects the continued shift away from petroleum as an energy source to electricity produced by nuclear and hydro plants, as well as conservation of all energy in all production processes. The shift by the economy to an increased share of services also requires less energy. Imports projected to rise only modestly. Assumed the recent increases in employ ment in response to 198l ’s higher oil prices would not continue. Long-term sta bility of oil prices would lead to a stable employment level and higher productivity, as only the more proven drilling sites will be profitable. Food industries Health-conscious consumers are expected to restrict their purchases of dairy, sugar, confectionery, and bakery products and to slightly increase their use of prepared convenience foods as well as restaurant meals. Processed foods and animal feeds will contain less sugar; other types of sweeteners will be substituted. Fabric, yarn, and thread mills Productivity assumed to be even higher than projected by the labor model. New equipment for textile manufacturing, espe cially open-end spinning and shuttlelessloom weaving, will be more widespread as the industry consolidates. Coal mining Productivity may be higher than initially projected by the labor model because of the expected continued shift to more capi tal-intensive western coal. 82 Table 1. Specific industry assumptions for 1995 projections— Continued Industry Apparel Assumes apparel imports will rise from 25 percent of total real output in 1984 to over 38 percent by 1995. Productivity higher than labor model projects because of more widespread use of new technologies, such as laser cutting of fabric and computerdesigned layouts. Sawmills and planing mills Higher productivity than projected by labor model because of greater use of new technologies. Millwork, plywood, and wood products Demand for these products is related to wood products, the new construction in dustry, and the maintenance and repair industry. Moderate long-term growth is expected. A continuing shift from plywood to waferboard, which uses wood scraps reinforced with glass and synthetic fibers, is foreseen. Wooden containers The use of wooden containers will contin ue to decline as other materials, especially plastics, become stronger and less expen sive, and as other packaging materials and methods become more developed and widely used. Furniture and fix tures except house hold Investment spending on furnishings for commercial and office buildings is ex pected to continue its upward trend, spurred by the overall capital spending boom as well as the need for many new types of furnishings for office moderniza tion. Paperboard contain ers and boxes Paper is expected to continue to replace metals as a container for noncarbonated beverages. Industrial inorganic and organic chemi cals Growth in exports is assumed to be severe ly limited, as production shifts to foreign sites closer to petroleum sources. A shift in the inputs to domestic production of in dustrial alcohol from petroleum to grains and corn is expected to continue. Drugs Past research is expected to provide drugs in the near future which improve memory and alertness, retard aging, and attack genetic disorders such as sickle cell ane mia, hemophilia, muscular dystrophy, and others. An aging population will contrib ute to an increasing demand for drugs. Cleaning and toilet preparations Rising per capita real incomes will insure the continued growth in the consumption of cosmetics and perfumes, along with continued increased use by men. Petroleum refining and related products Increased energy efficiency of autos will allow consumers to increase miles driven with little or no increase in gasoline con sumption. Tires and inner tubes The use of radial tires and the lighter weight of cars as well as a leveling off in the number of cars on the road will result in a static demand for tires. Imports will continue to gain market share, from 14 percent of all output in 1984 to over 23 percent in 1995. Industry Assumptions 83 Assumptions Plastics products, n.e.c Continued replacement of glass bottles with polyethlene terephthalate (PET) along with the overcoming of problems in its use in less than 2-liter bottles will increase the growth of this industry’s output. The technology for making plastic containers has improved sufficiently to make likely a drastic decline in the use of glass bottles and jars and metal cans for many food products and beverages. The production of more frozen foods and mi crowave products will add to growth. Productivity is expected to turn up in the future despite decreases in past years; some consolidation of small firms is ex pected, and new techniques will permit automatic remolding. Leather products, in cluding footwear Imports will account for a larger share of the market. The disparity in labor costs between many foreign suppliers and U.S. producers could be narrowed significantly with the application of new technologies, but the large capital investment required is beyond the reach of small and medium sized producers. Glass Some increased use of glass is expected for solar heating and for the transmission of audio and visual data by glass cable, although the continued shift to plastic packaging will limit demand for glass. Cement and concrete products Modest long-term growth is expected be cause of expanded use by the construction industry. Low-cost and better fire-safety gypsum board is expected to gain market share in mobile homes and office build ings. Structural clay prod ucts Very slow long-term growth is expected. Housing construction will still be the ma jor factor in determining the demand for clay. The replacement of brick and clay products in construction by plastic sewer pipe and metal fireplaces will have an adverse effect on this industry’s growth. Blast furnaces and basic steel New techniques for making stronger light er weight steel will allow the industry to maintain many of the current markets. The inputs to this new steel will be less, resulting in a drop in the value of inputs and value of sales of this steel. Also, substitution of plastics and composites for steel will continue. Imports will rise to 32 percent of total output from 19 percent in 1984. Because the slight projected in creases in domestic output will only be possible if the steel industry continues to restructure and modernize, productivity was assumed to rise faster than past trends. Assumes accelerated shift to minimills and widespread use of more efficient technologies such as continuous casting. Table 1. Specific industry assumptions for 1995 projections— Continued Industry Assumptions Iron and steel foundries New techniques for making stronger light er weight steel will allow the industry to maintain many of the current markets. The inputs to this new steel will be less, resulting in a drop in the value of inputs and value of sales of this steel. Higher productivity than projected by labor mod el; assumed increased use of computercontrolled molding equipment and materi al moving equipment. Primary copper and copper products Slow growth in demand as a result of substitution of other products as well as an increasing share taken by imports from foreign sources located in less developed countries. General decrease in relative us age of copper, especially due to fiber optics and satellite communication systems. Higher productivity than projected by labor model because of increased use of modern, automated equipment. Primary aluminum and aluminum prod ucts Increased offshore supplies are expected with the end of cheap hydroelectric supplies in the Northwest and the move ment of processing facilities to the primary producing nations. Primary nonferrous metals More than half of all output will be supplied by imports. Higher productivity than projected by labor model because of new technologies. Metal cans and con tainers The technology for making plastic con tainers has improved sufficiently to make likely a drastic decline in the use of both glass bottles and jars and metal cans for many food products and beverages. The production of more frozen foods and mi crowave products will add to growth. Also assumes higher productivity than project ed by labor model. Fabricated structural metals Moderate growth is expected mainly be cause of increases in industrial and office building construction, and increases in maintenance and repair construction for bridges and tunnels. Farm and garden machinery Weak food prices, high interest rates on machinery purchases, and a strong dollar brought farmers’ buying power to a record low in 1984. A long-term recovery is anticipated, but this industry is not pro jected to return to its 1979 peak by 1995. Recovery of output from current low levels is projected to be accomplished with higher productivity; more computer-controlled assembly of machinery equipment is expected. Construction, mining, and oilfield machin ery Industry A small increase in the mining industry is the major factor behind a small increase in investment purchases. Exports are ex pected to show healthy growth. Projection of recovery of output from current low levels will be accomplished with higher productivity; more computer-controlled assembly of machinery equipment. 84 Assumptions Metalworking ma chinery Assumes a rapid growth in investment demand reflecting the continued efforts to automate operations with robotics and machine tools linked by computer con trols. Imports will increase in market share. The expansion of robots from the present tasks of welding and painting to the textile, drugs, electronics, and other industries with improvement in software and communications will ensure healthy growth. Special industry ma chinery Small increases in investment demand re flect the adoption of computer-controlled monitoring of production. Imports will rise as a share of output. Computers and pe ripheral equipment Assumes a significant increase in equip ment investment spending on computers as all major industries make heavy com mitments to computers. Also, intense competition and continued technological change will combine to increase capabili ties and decrease prices. Exports and im ports both projected to show very rapid growth, but net trade balance will still be in U.S. favor. Typewriters and oth er office machines An increase in business spending on office machines reflects increasing office auto mation; replacment demand for word pro cessors, electronic typewriters, and ad vanced copiers will be strong. Imports will substantially increase their market share. Electric transmission equipment A moderate growth in investment is based on the expansion and maintenance plans of the industry and new residential and nonresidential construction activity. Radio and television receiving equipment Replacement of silver-based negatives with electronic movie and still pictures along with the continued sales of video cassette recorders and television monitors for home computers will insure healthy growth for this industry. Domestic pro duction will expand despite large increase in imports. Telephone and tele graph apparatus New telecommunications products and services will lead to substantial consumer demand. A continued rapid growth in investment purchases is expected because of increased use of computers and inter communications of business with comput ers, the modernization programs of the telephone companies, and the expansion of other common carriers. Radio and communi cation equipment Laser systems are included in this indus try’s output and are expected to add to an already strong Defense Department de mand. A significant increase in investment demand reflects the continued growth in industrial electronic equipment as well as the introduction of new high-technology products. Electronic compo nents and accessories Exports and imports will both rise sub stantially. The inclusion of electronic com ponents or small computers in virtually every type of machinery will lead to “smart” machines, capable of doing more and communicating more with other ma chinery or with the operator. Table 1. Specific industry assumptions for 1995 projections— Continued Industry Motor vehicles Assumptions Industry Assumptions Prices will be held down by new efficient production methods and by such changes as a shift from the unitized steel body, which creates the chassis and body from one mold, to production of body and chassis parts in the form of plastic panels. The retarding effects of increases in fuel and auto prices and in interest rates over the 1979 to 1982 period are not expected during the projected period. Car usage will also rise somewhat as a result of the movement to the Sunbelt. However, de mand will be adversely affected by a smaller population of first-time car buyers, a smaller proportion of multicar families, and an increase in the average age of cars on the road. Imports are assumed to increase their market share only slightly, as many foreign producers set up plants in the United States. Truck transportation Projected employment was lowered be cause of expectations of higher productivi ty and lower employment levels due to deregulation in the trucking industry. De regulation has eliminated several uneco nomic rules and reduced the problem of empty backhauls; increased competition could lead to a greater volume of business and may encourage truckers to utilize their equipment more efficiently. Technol ogies expected to be in greater use include twin trailers, diesel-powered engines, and computer scheduling and recordkeeping. Radio and television broadcasting Productivity assumed to rise despite past declines. Communication, except radio and television Significant increases in business spending due to the introduction of new high-tech services and the rising use of data commu nications in the telephone industries. The prevalence of computers and their commu nication needs, as well as electronic mail, will cause the normal business to need more telephone services. As the prices of these services decline, they will be used instead of some business travel. Higher productivity than projected by labor mod el because of technological advances in telecommunications. Electric utilities, private and public The inability of many industries to further conserve energy will mean an increase in their usage of electricity, especially in view of the expected shift away from gas and oil as sources of energy, and the use of more automated plants and offices. Electricity is three times as expensive to produce as natural gas and fossil fuels but is more efficient in the production process. As sumes higher productivity than projected by labor model. Gas utilities Industries will use relatively less gas to heat their plants and as a raw material in manufacturing. Eating and drinking places Business expenditures on restaurants and bars are expected to decline relatively as firms make an effort to contain costs in this area. New techniques in communica tions will lower the amount of business travel. Banking Higher productivity than projected by labor model because of accelerating use of automated teller machines and electronic funds transfer systems. Insurance Higher productivity than projected by labor model because of computerized un derwriting; paperflow requirements cut. Hotels and lodging places As companies control costs by cutting back on business trips per unit of output, there will be relatively less business ex penditures for hotels. Business services This industry includes computer and data processing services, as well as photocopy and management and consulting services. Firms are expected to greatly increase their contracting-out for these services. Aircraft Continued replacement of aging, fuel-inef ficient, and noisy aircraft will result in increased investment demand, while joint production ventures will lead to increased imports. Productivity was lowered below model estimate; modem technologies are already widely diffused. Assumes further technological improvements to be limited. Ship and boat building and repair Exports will show healthy growth. Higher productivity is assumed because of in creased improvements to shipbuilding fa cilities. These include floating drydocks, cranes with greater lifting capacity, auto mated equipment, and increased use of prefabricated modular components. Railroad equipment A slight increase in investment is expected between 1984 and 1995, but output will remain substantially less than its 1979 peak. Imports will more than double their market share. Motorcycles, bicycles, and parts Imports will increase their already sub stantial market share. Transportation equipment, n.e.c Demand for mobile homes is projected to decrease somewhat. Scientific and controlling instruments Investment purchases will grow faster than the historical trend because of the increase in expenditures on research and development. Medical and dental instruments A very rapid growth in investment is expected because of technological change and product innovation. Optical and ophthal mic equipment Investment spending will grow rapidly, mainly due to the greater use of new products which incorporate more ad vanced technology. Photographic equip ment and supplies Growth will be fueled by the shift to the use of electronics from the use of tradition al silver-based negatives. Imports will gain market share. Watches and clocks Imports will rise from 54 percent to 75 percent of total output. 85 Table 1. Specific industry assumptions for 1995 projections— Continued Industry Advertising Industry Assumptions Industries will spend relatively more on advertising as competition intensifies, and as firms seek to differentiate their products and extend their markets. 86 Assumptions Professional services n.e.c. This industry includes legal, engineering, and accounting services. Firms are ex pected to increase their contracting-out for these services. U.S. Postal Service Higher productivity than projected by labor model because of improvements in mail handling equipment. Occupational Employment Total 1984 employment Estimates of self-employed and unpaid family workers by occupation were developed only at the total (all industry) level based on data in the 1984 Current Population Survey. They were added to the sum of wage and salary workers in all 378 industries in the matrix to derive estimates of total employment by detailed occupa tion for the economy. The national industry-occupation matrix was the basic analytical tool used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to develop the 1984-95 occupational projections. The ma trix presents data on employment by detailed occupation for wage and salary workers by industry. A matrix for a specific year can be viewed from two perspectives. One view focuses on the occupational composition of each industry and thereby indicates how an industry utilizes workers in different occupations to produce its products or services. Another view focuses on how each occupa tion is distributed across industries. In addition to its descriptive characteristics, the matrix is used as the basic tool to project occupational employment between a current (base) year and the target year of the projections. This section describes how the 1984 matrix was developed and how the 1995 matrix was projected using the 1984 matrix as the base. It also describes how estimates of occupational employment of self-employed workers and unpaid family workers were developed and added to wage and salary employment data to derive estimates of total 1984 and projected 1995 employment by occupation. 1995 matrix For wage and salary workers, the occupational pat terns in the 1984 matrix were projected to 1995. The projected patterns were based on an analysis of the factors expected to cause change over the 1984-95 period. The projected 1995 pattern for each industry was then multiplied by projected total wage and salary worker employment for each industry derived through the Bureau’s projections of employment by industry. Total 1995 projected employment Estimates of self-employed and unpaid family workers were projected based on an analysis of trends in the ratio of employment for each of these classes of workers to employment of wage and salary workers. Projected employment for these workers was added to wage and salary worker projections to derive total employment projections for each detailed occupation. Summary 1984 matrix The occupational distribution of wage and salary workers for the 1984 matrix was developed for each of 378 detailed industries. The most current Occupational Employment Statistics (oes) survey data for each indus try were used to develop occupational distribution (staff ing) patterns for industries covered by the survey. For other industries, either 1980 Decennial Census data or 1984 Current Population Survey (cps) data were used, except for the Federal Government, for which staffing patterns were developed from data compiled by the Office of Personnel Management. Estimates of employment by occupation in 1984 were derived by multiplying the occupational distribution of employment for each of these 378 industries by 1984 wage and salary worker employment for each industry. For all industries except agriculture and private house holds, data on total wage and salary worker employment were obtained from the Bureau’s Current Employment Statistics (ces) program. For agriculture and private households, cps data were used. 1984 Matrix All industries, except agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting and trapping, private households, and Federal Government Occupational distribution patterns from the oes sur veys were used to develop estimates of 1984 employment of wage and salary workers in industries covered by the surveys. The oes surveys are conducted on a 3-year cycle, with about one-third of the industries covered each year of the cycle. The surveys are based on a sample of employers in all nonagricultural industries except private households and the Federal Government. To develop the 1984 matrix, occupational staffing patterns were developed from the most recent national survey data available. The survey years were as follows: Manufacturing industries and hospitals, 1983; trade, transportation, communications, public utilities, and 87 State and local governments, 1982; mining, construction, finance, insurance, real estate, and services, other than hospitals and education, 1981; and education, 1979. The staffing patterns from these surveys were then applied to 1984 annual average industry employment estimates. Because the oes surveys of hospitals and educational institutions combine government and private employ ment, they were combined for these industries in the matrix. Therefore, staffing patterns of industries from the 1980 census were used only for detailed occupations that were comparable.1Occupations that were not comparable and that were judged not to be fully covered in the oes surveys were collapsed or combined into residual occupa tional categories in the industry-occupation matrix. For scientists, engineers, and engineering and science technicians, the oes survey classification included a residual category in all industries. When a detailed occupation in each of these groups was not listed separately in the oes survey questionnaire for a specific industry, it was included in the residual. Because the 1980 census collected data in a format comparable to the oes survey for these groups, but included all detailed occupations, a percent distribution of census data for occupations not covered in the survey was applied to the residual category in the oes survey for that industry to develop employment estimates for the detailed occupa tions. For all other occupations that were judged to require enhancement, the proportion that the occupation repre sented of total wage and salary worker employment in the industry in the 1980 census was applied to total industry employment in the comparable oes survey industry. The resulting employment total was used for the occupation, and a comparable total was subtracted from the appropriate oes survey residual. To avoid developing estimates that were very small and that would be both unreliable and have little bearing on total occupational employment, data were disaggregated using this procedure only for occupations for which employ ment in an industry accounted for more than 0.5 percent of the total for the occupation in the census. In addition, if the procedure resulted in employment of less than 50 in a specific oes survey industry, no enhancement was made. In instances where one census industry was equivalent to more than one oes survey industry, the computed census ratio was used in each comparable matrix industry in the group. In industries where the enhancement procedure resulted in an employment total greater than the appropriate residual in the oes survey data, the enhancement was limited to total employment in the residual. To enhance 1981 and 1982 data, the 1970 census was used in a manner similar to that described above. In a few instances, other modifications were made based on data available from other sources, such as the National Center for Education Statistics ( nces). N ces data on preschool teachers, elementary school teachers, secondary school teachers, and college and university faculty were judged to be more accurate than oes data for these workers. Data for these occupations were placed into the matrix for the educational services industry, and all other occupations were adjusted proportionally through an iteration procedure. In a similar manner, data Occupational classification. The 1984 matrix conforms to the classification system first used in the 1983 oes surveys of manufacturing and hospitals. That classifica tion is compatible with the Standard Occupational Clas sification (soc). The 1981 and 1982 oes survey data, however, were based on a different classification system and had to be reclassified into the new system for use in the 1984 matrix. A crosswalk relating old to new oes survey occupations was used in this process. Difficulties were encountered in using the crosswalk because some occupations were split into more than one occupation in the new classification. In addition, some occupations in the new classification were not previously identified separately and therefore had been included in broader (or residual) categories. For such occupations, employment data from the 1983 manufacturing and hospital surveys were collapsed into residuals in the 1984 matrix, if employment was expected to be found in other industries. When data become available from a complete oes survey cycle, these occupations can be identified separately in the matrix. Modifications to o e s occupational patterns. In some industries, some detailed occupations contained in the oes classification system were not listed on the oes survey questionnaire but were included in a broader group or a residual category. To develop economywide employment estimates for these occupations, it was necessary to “enhance” the survey data by disaggregating employment from the appropriate survey category. The following paragraphs describe the enhancement proce dures and other modifications designed to increase accuracy. To enhance 1983 data, occupational data from the 1980 census were used. Although data from the census and the oes surveys are based on the same classification framework, they are not identical. To use census data, a crosswalk between the census and the new oes classifica tion system was used. In classifying census data into the new oes system, comparability problems arose similar to those encountered in integrating the old oes data into the new system. In this process, considerable judgment had to be used to match some census occupations with occupations in the matrix; for some occupations, the relationship was considered to be tenuous at best. 88 were used in the matrix: Data were developed separately for the postal service and all other Federal employment. Problems occurred primarily in classifying occupations found only in the Federal Government into their proper place in the oes survey system. Some of these occupa tions, such as postal service clerks and postal mail carriers, are classified separately in the matrix. from the Interstate Commerce Commission for selected occupations in the railroad industry were used in the matrix. Data from religious organizations on the number of clergy were also substituted for oes data in developing the 1984 matrix. For a small number of other occupations, an analysis of cps data indicated that employment patterns in 1984 probably had changed significantly from the reference period of the 1981 and 1982 oes surveys. For example, rapid growth of cashiers was observed in the cps between 1981 and 1984 in gasoline stations, department stores, and grocery stores. Modifications were made to coeffi cients for cashiers in the 1981 oes surveys in these industries, and other occupations were adjusted propor tionally. Total 1984 Employment To develop total employment estimates by occupation, estimates of self-employed and unpaid family workers were developed to add to wage and salary worker employment. These estimates, developed at the all industry level only, were taken directly from the c p s . Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping Data on the occupational distribution of wage and salary workers in agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping were derived from the 1980 census. Occupa tional distribution patterns were developed for five industries: (1) agriculture production, crops; (2) agricul ture production, livestock; (3) agricultural services (in cluding horticultural); (4) forestry; and (5) fishing, hunting, and trapping. Similar data could have been developed from the 1984 cps, but it was believed that the larger sample used in the census would provide more reliable data. However, 1984 cps data were used as the industry controls in the 1984 matrix. Also, for the very large occupations that dominate these industries—farm ers, farm managers, and farm workers—1984 cps annual averages were used in the 1984 matrix. Estimates of wage and salary workers by occupation are based on payroll records of establishments and represent the number of jobs by occupation rather than a count of individuals. Since individuals may hold more than one job, they are counted in all jobs they hold. However, for the agriculture and private household industries, each person is only counted once within these industries since the cps only counts an individual once in his or her primary job. If these workers also held wage and salary jobs in other industries, however, they would be counted in those jobs as well. In preparing the matrix for publication, occupations with total employment (wage and salary workers and self-employed and unpaid family workers) of less than 5,000 workers were collapsed into appropriate residuals. Exceptions were made for occupations requiring signifi cant training, and for residual categories that were needed to complete subtotals considered to be of signifi cance. As a result of the collapsing of occupations into residual categories, the total number of occupations covered in the 1984 matrix available to the public is 500, of which 60 are residual categories. Private households Data on the occupational distribution of employment in private households were derived from the 1984 cps rather than from 1980 census data because the census total was roughly one-third less than the totals in the cps each year from the late 1970’s to 1984. Because the census covers only 1 month, April 1980, it was judged that the annual average data based on monthly surveys would be more accurate. 1995 Matrix The basic procedure used to develop the 1995 occupa tional projections for wage and salary workers was to project the staffing patterns in the 1984 matrix to 1995 and then apply the projected staffing patterns to projec tions of industry employment developed through the Bureau’s economic growth system. Self-employed and unpaid family workers were projected separately and added to the sum of wage and salary workers for all industries to derive the projections of total occupational employment. Federal Government Data on the occupational composition of Federal Government employment are maintained by the Office of Personnel Management. These data, however, are com piled in greater detail than needed for immediate use in the matrix. It was necessary, therefore, to convert smc data to the oes survey classification. For most occupa tions, converted smc data for 1982 were the latest available. However, for a few detailed occupations— postmasters, postal service clerks, postal mail carriers, and air traffic controllers—1984 data were available and The analytical efforts involved in developing the projections can best be described in a series of steps. 89 Review and analysis of historical data In projecting the staffing patterns from 1984 to 1995, the first step was to review historical employment data to identify trends. A variety of data sources were reviewed, including past oes surveys, the cps surveys conducted by other Federal agencies such as the National Center for Education Statistics and the National Science Founda tion, and studies conducted by nongovernment organiza tions. Analyses were then conducted to identify the factors underlying the trends identified through the review of historical data. In this process, use was made of analyti cal studies of specific industries and occupations, techno logical change, and a wide variety of economic data. Based on these analyses, judgments were made wheth er the factors identified as causing changes in occupation al utilization in the past would have less, more, or the same effect in the future. Factors identified were wide ranging. They included technological change, both in the processes used to produce products and services and in products and services themselves, changes in the ways business activities are conducted, changes in organiza tional management and objectives, changes in the mix of products and services produced by industries, and chang es in the size of business establishments within industries. and because improvements in word processing equipment are expected to continue. However, because a very large proportion of establishments already use such equipment, the trend is not likely to accelerate. Table 1 identifies matrix occupations for which industry-occupation cell coefficients were projected to change over the 1984-95 period. The table also provides a brief description of the reasons underlying the change. Preparing numerical estimates The translation of analytical judgments into numerical estimates is the most subjective step in the projections procedure. For example, most analysts would agree with the judgment described above on the effect of word processing on employment of typists. Yet numerical estimates of the reduction in the proportion of typists in each industry in which they are employed could vary significantly among individual analysts. To maintain consistency among the judgments of the analysts the following procedure was used to develop the initial projected coefficients for all occupations across industries. A determination was made as to whether the coefficient should be changed and, if so, whether the change, either a decrease or an increase, would be small, moderate, significant, or very significant. Guidelines for changing coefficients across all industries were as follows: Small—1 percent to 4 percent; moderate—5 percent to 9 percent; significant—10 percent to 20 percent, and very significant—20 percent or more. Table 1 identifies the groups in which the occupations fell. Analysts could use any percent change within the guidelines. For example, a moderate change on the high side would be 8 or 9 percent and on the low side 5 or 6 percent. Coefficients were also projected for specific industries that differed from the economywide analysis. Identification of new factors Studies were also conducted to identify technological changes and other factors that could cause the future utilization of workers to change within industries when an analysis of past trends was not applicable. For example, an analysis of past trends could not identify the impact of robots on staffing patterns because, for most industries, this technology has not yet been put in place to any significant extent. However, robots are expected to have a significant impact on some occupations, especially in the automobile manufacturing industry. Information of this nature can be identified from studies conducted by other organizations as well as through studies conducted by bls staff. Research conducted by the Bureau’s Office of Productivity and Technology was used intensively in these analyses. Much information of this nature was also obtained during the course of the research conducted in preparing the 1986-87 edition of the Occupational Out look Handbook. An example will serve to identify the nature of the analytical judgments that were made to reflect technolog ical change. In historical data, employment of typists has shown little change over the past several years despite overall growth of the economy and an increasing amount of associated paperwork. The increasing use of word processing equipment was identified as the major factor underlying the declining proportion of typists. Analyses indicated that this trend would continue, since word processing equipment is not yet found in all organizations Balancing the results All projected changes were then processed through the computer system prepared to compile an industry-occu pation matrix. Since the projected ratios for virtually all industries at this point did not add to precisely 100 percent, an iteration procedure was used to balance the industry to 100 percent. Applying the ratios to projected employment The resulting occupational distribution patterns were then applied to the projections of industry employment. The initial projections for all occupations derived by adding across industries and adding preliminary projec tions of self-employed and unpaid family workers were arranged in several table formats suitable for analysis. This included arrangement of data by growth rate and by total numerical change, the development of a change factor matrix for each occupation (the percent change from 1984-95 for each occupation/industry cell coeffi 90 cient), and the distribution of each occupation across all industries in 1984 and 1995. and the final projections of wage and salary workers developed. Detailed review A detailed review was then made of all the projections. Staff participating in the review brought their knowledge gained through experience and studies in preparing the Occupational Outlook Handbook and related activities. Consistency of analyses and assumptions used in other aspects of the Bureau’s projection model were a signifi cant input to the review process. As a result of the review, numerous changes were made to the occupational coefficients, which were then processed into a revised matrix. Final review A final review was then conducted in which knowl edgeable persons in specific fields were asked for their comments on the implications of the projections. The projections were again reviewed for consistency with the general assumptions made in developing the economic model and those made when the analyses underlying historical changes in coefficients and employment trends were made. Resulting changes were made in the matrix Adding self-employed and unpaid family workers Projections of self-employed and unpaid family work ers were developed based largely on historically observed ratios of these workers to wage and salary workers in each occupation. Analyses showed that these trends were generally consistent over the past 10 years, although in some occupations the ratios increased, in others declined, and in others remained relatively unchanged. It should be noted that self-employment is a significant proportion of employment in only a small number of occupations, including physicians, dentists, and other medical special ists; the construction crafts; and manager-owners of small businesses in retail trade. For most occupations, the data have little bearing on the projections. Unpaid family workers represent a significant proportion of workers only for farm workers, cashiers, and some clerical occupations such as receptionists, secretaries, and book keepers. The totals for self-employed, unpaid family workers, and wage and salary workers were then summed to arrive at the final projections. ’The problems discussed here were also encountered in developing estimates for data placed in the matrix from sources other than the oes surveys, including agricultural industries, the private household indus try, self-employed workers, and unpaid family workers. For these categories, either 1980 census or 1984 cps data were used, both of which have the same occupational classification system. 91 Table 1. Occupations with projected changes to employment coefficients in the National Industry-Occupation Matrix, 1984 to 1995 Occupation Reasons underlying projected changes Occupation Significant increases Accountants and auditors Significant increases in virtually all indus tries due to the growing emphasis on the use of financial data in day-to-day business decisionmaking, as well as the rapid growth of internal auditing functions di rected at improving employees’ efficiency. Only small to moderate increases are ex pected in accounting, auditing, and book keeping services in Federal, State, and local governments. Aeronautical and astronautical engineers Significant increases in aircraft and parts manufacturing and the Federal Govern ment to reflect expected increases in re search and development activity and de fense expenditures. Artists and commercial artists The use of computers to produce images is not technologically advanced enough to produce images as well as human artists can. Therefore, a significant increase is expected in mailing, reproduction, com mercial art and photography, and steno graphic services due to increased demand for artwork. A moderate increase in adver tising. Automotive and motorcyle mechanics Cashiers A significant increase in motor vehicle dealers (new and used) due to the growing complexity of automotive technology, par ticularly increasing applications of elec tronics, which are expected to make auto mobiles more difficult to service and re pair. Only a moderate increase in automo bile repair shops is expected because estab lishments in this industry will be forced to limit the range of work they perform due to limited expertise or lack of expensive diagnostic or repair equipment. A small decrease in gasoline service stations as the trend toward more self-service stations that do not perform repair is expected to continue. Significant increases in all retail trade industries, reflecting the growing impor tance of self-service. The only important exception is gasoline service stations, where only a moderate increase is project ed. Automated payment systems are ex pected to offset partially the increased demand for cashiers in self-service sta tions. Computer programmers Significant increases in all industries, re flecting the increasing use of computers throughout the economy as improvements to both hardware and software make com puter technology more versatile, cheaper, and easier to use. Computer systems analysts, electronic data processing Significant increases in all industries, re flecting the rising use of computers. Correction officers and jailers Significant increases in Federal, State, and local government due to the public’s in creasing concern about law and order. 92 Reasons underlying projected changes Electrical and electronics engineers Significant increases in virtually all indus tries to develop, install, and maintain computers and other electronic equip ment, and to incorporate electronic de vices in new products and in production facilities. Electrical and electronics technicians and technologists Significant increases in almost all indus tries due to the expected increased use of computers and other electronic equipment throughout the economy which will re quire more technicians for research and development, maintenance, installation, and sales support. Industrial engineers Significant increases in virtually all indus tries due to the expected increase in ex penditures for capital equipment and the need to integrate separate areas of factory automation into whole automated facto ries. They are also expected increasingly to be used to develop systems for office automation. Instructors, adult (nonvocational) education A significant increase in educational ser vices to reflect the growing adult popula tion and the increasing emphasis on selfimprovement and leisure studies. Mechanical engineers Significant increases in nearly all indus tries due to expected increases in expendi tures for research and development, na tional defense, and capital outlays. Medical assistants A significant increase in offices of physi cians as assistants continue to take over some of the duties of other workers. These workers are valued for their flexibility and versatility in both the clerical and clinical areas. Occupational therapists A significant increase in hospitals due to the more intensive use of therapy services to reduce average length of patient stays. Paralegal personnel A significant increase in legal services due to the growing acceptance of these work ers as cost-effective members of the legal service team. Physical therapists A significant increase in hospitals due to the expectation that therapy services will be used more intensively to reduce the average length of patient stays. Registered nurses A significant increase in hospitals due to changes in staffing patterns brought about by continued pressure to contain costs plus increasing complexity of care. A signifi cant increase in offices of other health practitioners, reflecting the growing accep tance of nurse practitioners. Securities and financial services sales workers A significant increase in commercial and stock savings banks due to legislation that has reduced regulation in the financial services industry to allow banks to offer products such as money market funds and stocks. Table 1. Occupations with projected changes In employment coefficients in the National Industry-Occupation Matrix, 1984, to 1995— Continued Occupation Teachers, kindergarten and elementary Reasons underlying projected changes Occupation A significant increase in educational ser vices as kindergarten and elementary school enrollments become a larger pro portion of total school enrollments. Guards A moderate increase in the rapidly grow ing miscellaneous business services indus try, which includes contract security firms. Significant decreases in virtually all other industries, reflecting an increasing use of technologically advanced security systems as well as a trend by firms to contract out security services because it is easier and less expensive than operating a proprietary security staff. Hosts and hostesses, restaurant, lounge, and coffee shop A moderate increase in eating and drink ing places due to expected rapid growth in full-service restaurants and slower growth in fast-food restaurants. Industrial engineering technicians and technologists Moderate increases in virtually all manu facturing industries because of expected increases in expenditures for research and capital equipment needed to integrate sep arate areas of factory automation. Judges, magistrates, and other judicial workers Moderate increases in Federal and local governments due to the public’s increasing concern about law and order and the expected continued backlog of cases wait ing to be heard. A significant increase in State government due to expected rapid growth of judicial functions. Lawyers Significant increases in industries other than the legal services industry and gov ernment as more legal work is expected to be done in-house. Mechanical engineering technicians and technologists Moderate increases in virtually all manu facturing industries because of expected increases in expenditures for research and development, defense, and capital equip ment. Peripheral EDP equipment operators Moderate increases in all industries due to the expected rise in computer usage throughout the economy. Pharmacy assistants A moderate increase in hospitals due to expected continuing pressure to contain costs. Hospitals are expected to expand their utilization of technological advances such as computer profiles of patients and automated dispensing of medication. Physician assistants A moderate increase in hospitals as physi cian assistants replace some medical resi dents due to pressure to contain costs. A significant increase in outpatient care facil ities, where their use is cost-effective. Public relations specialists Moderate increases in all industries, re flecting the expected growing importance of public relations activities throughout the economy. Radiologic technologists and technicians Moderate increases in hospitals due to the expected continued expansion of diagnos tic and therapeutic applications in radiolo gy; in offices of physicians, reflecting the expected acceleration of the trend toward large medical group practices offering an expanded range of services; and in outpa tient care facilities, reflecting the growth of freestanding diagnostic imaging centers. Moderate increases Bakers, bread and pastry A moderate increase in grocery stores due to an expected continuation of the trend toward large supermarkets with their own bakeries. Bartenders A moderate increase in eating and drink ing places, reflecting expected slow growth of this industry’s fast-food segment, which employs few bartenders, and more rapid growth of other segments, where employ ment of bartenders is concentrated. Biological scientists Moderate increases in almost all industries outside of government due to increasing interest and research opportunities in bio logical and medical research caused by advances in biotechnology and the appli cations of biotechnology to other areas. Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists Moderate increases in all industries due to the expected increase in the demand for small and medium-sized diesel engines for power trucks, buses, automobiles, and gen erators. Bus drivers, school A moderate increase in educational ser vices as elementary and secondary school enrollments become a larger proportion of total school enrollments, and as a growing proportion of the school age population becomes concentrated in suburban areas. Chemical engineers Moderate increases in manufacturing in dustries due to expected increases in re search and development expenditures. Computer operators, except peripheral equipment Moderate increases in all industries, re flecting an expected rise in computer usage throughout the economy. Cooks, restaurant A moderate increase in eating and drink ing places, reflecting expected continued growth of full-service restaurants at the expense of fast-food establishments. Court clerks A moderate increase in local government due to the public’s increasing concern about law and order and the expected continued backlog of cases waiting to be heard. A significant increase in State gov ernment due to the expected rapid growth of judicial functions. Data processing equipment repairers Moderate increases in all industries, re flecting the rising use of computers. Electricians Moderate increases in all manufacturing industries as electricians become increas ingly involved in the maintenance of elec tronic controllers used on production equipment. Geologists, geophysicists, and oceanographers Moderate increases in industries con cerned with locating increasingly scarce and harder to find oil, gas, and mineral deposits. 93 Reasons underlying projected changes Table 1. Occupations with projected changes in employment coefficients in the National Industry-Occupation Matrix, 1984, to 1995— Continued Occupation Occupation Reasons underlying projected changes Teacher aides and educational assistans A moderate increase in educational ser vices as elementary and secondary school enrollments become a larger proportion of total school enrollments. Teachers, preschool A moderate increase in educational ser vices due to the expected increase in enrollments in church-operated schools and day care centers. A significant in crease in religious organizations due to the expected increase in demand for day care services. Small increases in all manufacturing in dustries due to rising research and devel opment expenditures and a shift in compo sition of output toward specialty chemi cals, which require more work by chem ists. Elementary and secondary school principals and assistant principals Small increase in educational services as elementary and secondary school enroll ments become a larger proportion of total school enrollments. Emergency medical technicians Small increases in local government and hospitals, reflecting an expected increase in local government support for public safety and health services, and an attempt by hospitals to increase their share of the emergency medical services market. Underwriters A small increase in the insurance industry. The increasing complexity of policies and greater competition among insurance car riers will cause insurance companies to analyze risks more carefully. Waiters and waitresses A small increase in eating and drinking places due to the expected faster growth of full-service restaurants than fast-food res taurants. Small decreases Hotel desk clerks A small decrease in hotels, motels, and tourist courts, reflecting the trend toward larger hotels with computerized reserva tion systems. Painting machine operators and tenders Small decreases in furniture, primary met als, fabricated metal products, nonelectri cal machinery, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment as production painters become more productive due to technological advances which utilize ro botic equipment. Pharmacists A small decrease in drug stores and pro prietary stores due to the expected contin ued shift to larger drug and variety stores or drug and department stores. As the average number of employees in these establishments increases, pharmacists are expected to become a smaller proportion of the total industry employment. A mod erate increase is expected in hospitals due to the growing emphasis on clinical phar macy. Salespersons, retail Small decreases in all retail trade indus tries due to the continuing shift to selfservice and discount operations that re duce the demand for salespeople. A signifi cant decrease in grocery stores where the shift to self-service is expected to be stron ger than in other retail establishments. Teachers, secondary school A small decrease in educational services as secondary school enrollments become a smaller proportion of total school enroll ments. Moderate decreases Small increases Chemists Reasons underlying projected changes 94 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks Moderate decreases in all industries, re flecting the continuation of the trend to ward automation of bookkeeping opera tions. Blue-collar worker supervisors Moderate decreases in all manufacturing industries as firms are expected to assign more workers to each supervisor in order to compete with foreign firms. Also, to the extent that the use of automated machin ery eliminates production worker jobs, there are expected to be corresponding declines in supervisory positions. Broadcast technicians Moderate decreases in all industries re flecting the increased use of electronic broadcasting equipment that increases the productivity of technicians. Cooks, short order and specialty fast food A moderate decrease in eating and drink ing places due to expected slower growth of the fast-food segment than other parts of the industry. Electrical and electronics assemblers Moderate decreases in all industries due to the expected greater application of indus trial robots to perform assembly opera tions. Electronic home entertainment equipment repairers Moderate decreases in all industries due to the lower maintenance requirements of equipment made with microelectronic cir cuitry. Food preparation and service workers, fast food A moderate decrease in eating and drink ing places due to expected slower growth of the fast-food segment than other parts of the industry. Janitors and cleaners, including maids and housekeeping cleaners Moderate decreases in virtually all indus tries due to an expected increase in con tracting out cleaners of cleaning services. A small increase in services to dwellings and other buildings where contractual cleaning services are located. Jewelers and silversmiths A moderate decrease in miscellaneous shopping goods stores as new jewelry stores are expected to be primarily sales outlets which either contract out repair work or centralize repair services in one location. A small decrease in jewelry man ufacturing due to increased productivity resulting from the use of lasers and other more efficient equipment. Table 1. Occupations with projected changes in employment coefficients in the National Industry-Occupation Matrix, 1984 to 1995— Continued Occupation Machinists Physicians Postal service clerks Occupation Reasons underlying projected changes Moderate decreases in all industries, re flecting the increasing use of more produc tive metalworking technologies such as numerical-control machine tools, machin ing centers, and flexible manufacturing systems. A moderate decrease in offices of physi cians as large group practices provide more complex therapeutic and diagnostic procedures that require more support per sonnel. A moderate decrease in the Postal Service due to the further application of technolo gies that reduce labor requirements in this occupation such as computer forwarding, presorting programs, bar code sorters, and optical character readers. Production, planning, and expediting clerks Moderate decreases in all industries as automation continues to reduce the need for these workers. Reservation and transportation ticket agents A moderate decrease in certificated air transportation due to the continued reduc tion in labor requirements resulting from the computerization of reservation and ticketing functions. Roustabouts Moderate decreases due to greater mecha nization and greater use of new equipment such as backhoes, electronic testers, power tools, and hoists. Service station attendants A moderate decrease in gasoline service stations, reflecting the continued shift to self-service stations. Stock clerks, sales floor Moderate decreases in all industries due to computerized technology which has sim plified inventory control and the use of optical scanners which read bar codes to register prices of item purchased. The use of scanners means that prices do not have to be marked on each item, thereby lower ing the demand for these workers. Tellers Moderate decreases in commercial and stock savings banks and savings and loan associations due to an expected increase in the number of automated teller machines. Traffic, shipping, and receiving clerks Moderate decreases in all industries as more of these workers use computer tech nology in their work. Wholesale and retail buyers except farm products A moderate decrease in all industries as computerized equipment is used more to record transactions. Brokerage clerks Significant decreases in financial industries due to the increasing use of data process ing equipment that greatly increases the efficiency of these workers. Butchers and meatcutters A significant decrease in grocery stores and a small increase in meat products manufacturing, reflecting the continued shift in the processing of beef from retail to manufacturing establishments. Central office operators A significant decrease in telephone com munication due to the increasing central ization and automation of routine operator tasks. College and university faculty A significant decrease in educational ser vices as college and university enrollments decline sharply as a proportion of total school enrollments. Compositors, typesetters, and arrangers Significant decreases in newspapers and commercial printing, reflecting a contin ued diffusion of technology that already has substantially reduced requirements for these workers through the use of video display terminals and photocomposition. Data entry keyers, except composing Significant decreases in all industries due to expected improvements to data entry techniques, such as on-line processing, optical character recognition technologies, and improvements to data communica tions systems. Directory assistance operators A significant decrease in telephone com munication due to an expected increase in automated responses to customer inquiries and an expected decrease in demand for services arising from charging for directo ry assistance. Drafters Significant decreases in all industries due to the expected continuing spread of com puter-aided design technology which al lows drafters to become more productive. Farm and home management advisors A significant decrease in educational ser vices due to the projected decline in the number of farmers who rely on the ser vices of these workers. File clerks Significant decreases in all industries due to the expected continued growth of com puterized filing systems which enable oth er office personnel to assume some of the duties of these workers Graduate assistants, teaching A significant decrease in educational ser vices as college and university enrollments decline sharply as a proportion of total school enrollments. Industrial truck and tractor operators Significant decreases in all industries due to anticipated productivity increases and warehouse automation. New industrial trucks that are linked to the dispatcher by computer and the growth of automated warehouses are expected to eliminate the need for many industrial trucks and opeiators. Significant decreases Architects, including landscape architects A significant decrease in engineering, ar chitectural, and surveying services as the demand for architectural services is not expected to grow as fast as the demand for engineering services. Barbers A significant decrease in beauty shops, where employment of barbers is not ex pected to grow as fast as for cosmetolo gists. 95 Reasons underlying projected changes Table 1. Occupations with projected changes in employment coefficients in the National Industry-Occupation Matrix, 1984 to 1995-— Continued Occupation Licensed practical nurses Reasons underlying projected changes A significant decrease in hospitals as changes in patient care requirements re sulting from shorter length of stays and use of sophisticated medical technologies accelerates the long-term trend toward reliance on nursing personnel at higher levels of clinical skill. Mail clerks, except mailing machine operators and Postal Service Significant decreases in all industries due to the expected widespread adaptation of innovations such as electronic mail, fac simile transmission, and optical character recognition. Medical and clinical laboratory technologists and technicians A significant decrease in hospitals as much of the work currently being performed in hospital laboratories is expected to be shifted to other industry sectors, including offices of physicians and commercial labs. Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants A significant decrease in hospitals as changes in patient care requirements re sulting from shorter length of stays and use of sophisticated medical technologies accelerate the long-term trend toward reli ance on nursing personnel at higher levels of clinical skill. Order fillers, wholesale and retail sales Significant decreases in all industries due to continued automation of the duties of these workers. Payroll and timekeeping clerks Significant decreases in all industries due to the expected widespread application of computer technology to the payroll and timekeeping functions. Radio and TV announcers and newscasters A significant decrease in radio and TV broadcasting, where much of the future industry growth is expected in "behind the scenes’’ jobs such as sales and clerical workers. Cable TV, which is expected to be the fastest growing segment within the industry, employs relatively few announcers. Occupation 96 Reasons underlying projected changes Secretaries Significant decreases in all industries, re flecting the impact of office automation. Station installers and repairers, telephone A significant decrease in telephone com munication due to an increasing use of telephones that are cheaper to replace than to repair, and to modular plugs that allow consumers to install their own telephones. Statistical clerks Significant decreases in all industries due to the expected impact of computer tech nology on recordkeeping and statistical analyses. ‘ Stenographers Significant decreases in all industries due to the expected continued spread of dicta tion equipment. Stock clerks; stock room, warehouse, or yard Significant decreases in all industries due to expected further application of comput er technology to inventory control. Surveyors A significant decrease in engineering, ar chitectural, and surveying services as the demand for surveying services is not ex pected to grow as fast as the demand for engineering services. Typists Significant decreases in virtually all indus tries, reflecting the widening implementa tion of office automation equipment and expected continued improvements in word processing technology. A significant in crease in mailing, reproduction, commer cial art and photography, and stenograph ic services, which includes commercial word processing bureaus, the expansion of which will increase the demand for typists. Part III. Supplementary Data Table A-1. Values of selected aggregate economic variables, 1984, and assumptions for 1990 and 1995 Variable Low 1984 High Moderate 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 92.356 31.075 4.880 14.927 26.583 79.122 23.430 122.017 35.385 4.967 15.503 31.800 87.972 25.235 129.513 37.080 5.484 15.894 38.134 93.656 27.862 122.017 35.385 4.967 15.503 31.800 87.972 25.235 129.513 37.080 5.484 15.894 38.134 93.656 27.862 122.017 35.385 4.967 15.503 31.800 87.972 25.235 129.513 37.080 5.484 15.894 38.134 93.656 27.862 36.751 14.000 92.454 24.200 7.984 19.393 8.781 0.328 3.598 1.000 37.413 54.388 9.000 56.189 15.300 126.623 20.407 9.079 26.260 9.593 0.272 4.541 1.000 37.413 54.387 9.000 78.509 15.300 167.223 27.052 11.047 28.993 10.745 0.272 6.058 1.000 37.413 54.387 9.000 56.189 15.300 126.623 20.407 9.079 26.260 9.593 0.272 4.541 1.000 37.413 54.387 9.000 78.509 15.300 167.223 27.052 11.047 28.993 10.745 0.272 6.058 1.000 37.413 54.387 9.000 56.189 15.300 126.623 20.407 9.079 26.260 9.593 0.272 4.541 1.000 37.413 54.387 9.000 78.509 15.300 167.223 27.052 11.047 28.993 10.745 0.272 6.058 1.000 37.413 54.387 9.000 71.398 33.102 14.628 56.672 24.106 3.249 -7.270 8.675 88.393 35.619 90.579 70.612 0.82 5.861 12.067 78.070 36.625 16.377 63.822 29.217 4.190 -11.264 9.053 82.997 33.402 84.943 66.217 0.82 6.083 18.321 84.103 39.650 17.643 70.120 32.884 4.731 -13.126 9.514 78.423 31.529 80.081 62.503 0.82 6.083 24.518 80.641 38.992 17.334 68.535 29.217 4.190 -11.264 9.053 82.997 33.402 84.943 66.217 0.82 6.083 18.321 88.344 43.901 19.589 78.419 32.884 4.731 -13.126 9.514 78.423 31.529 80.081 62.503 0.82 6.083 24.518 82.316 40.927 18.191 71.295 29.217 4.190 -11.264 9.053 82.997 33.402 84.943 66.217 0.82 6.083 18.321 89.996 46.080 20.581 81.454 32.884 4.731 -13.126 9.514 78.423 31.529 80.081 62.503 0.82 6.083 24.518 0.175 0.012 0.068 184.158 137.792 50.540 0.175 0.012 0.488 271.004 216.513 82.732 0.175 0.012 0.488 417.352 293.539 110.228 0.175 0.012 0.488 271.004 216.513 82.732 0.175 0.012 0.488 417.352 293.539 110.228 0.175 0.012 0.488 271.004 216.513 82.732 0.175 0.012 0.488 417.352 293.539 110.228 29.860 26.324 9.996 5.059 47.384 47.219 24.153 6.484 65.076 66.544 37.292 8.160 47.384 47.219 24.153 6.484 65.076 66.544 37.292 8.160 47.384 47.219 24.153 6.484 65.076 66.544 37.292 8.160 61.996 84.985 31.905 63.835 49.709 2.239 7.785 0.335 -0.899 68.183 95.598 34.287 65.841 54.259 2.322 7.974 0.310 -0.898 72.250 102.446 36.747 67.258 57.842 2.322 8.175 0.202 -0.283 68.183 95.598 34.287 67.146 55.507 2.322 8.191 0.354 -1.107 72.250 102.446 36.747 69.282 59.886 2.322 8.632 0.235 -0.678 68.183 95.598 34.287 68.144 56.156 2.322 8.363 0.374 -1.172 72.250 102.446 36.747 71.452 61.448 2.322 8.921 0.336 -0.727 Federal Defense purchases (billions of 1972 dollars)................................. Nondefense purchases (billions of 1972 dollars)............................ Food stamp benefits (billions of 1972 dollars)................................ Military retirement (billions of 1972 dollars).................................... Medicare payments (billions of 1972 dollars).................................. Social Security benefits (billions of 1972 dollars)........................... Other transfers (billions of 1972 dollars) ........................................ Old-age and survivors insurance maximum taxable salary (billions of current dollars)........................................................................ Old-age and survivors insurance combined tax rate (percent)...... Grants-in-aid (billions of current dollars)......................................... Subsidies (billions of current dollars)............................................... Transfers to foreigners (billions of current dollars)......................... Interest paid to foreigners (billions of current dollars)................... Average compensation (thousands of 1972 dollars)...................... Ratio of compensation to purchases............................................... Value of a standard deduction (current dollars).............................. Value of individual exemption (current dollars)............................... Effective tax rate, homeowners (percent)....................................... Effective tax rate, landlords (percent)............................................. Federal gasoline tax (cents per gallon)........................................... State and local Education purchases (billions of 1972 dollars) ............................... Health, labor, and welfare purchases (billions of 1972 dollars)..... Civil safety purchases (billions of 1972 dollars).............................. Other purchases (billions of 1972 dollars)...................................... Transfers to persons (billions of 1972 dollars) ............................... Dividend income (billions of current dollars) ................................... Subsidies (billions of current dollars)............................................... Average compensation (thousands of 1972 dollars)...................... Education employment (thousands)................................................. Health, labor, and welfare employment (thousands)...................... Civil safety employment (thousands)............................................... Other employment (thousands)........................................................ Personal income subject to State and local tax (proportion)......... Effective tax rate, all States (percent)............................................. State and local gasoline tax (cents per gallon).............................. Monetary Reserve requirement, demand deposits (percent).......................... Reserve requirement, time deposits (percent)................................ Free reserves (billions of current dollars)....................................... Money market mutual funds (billions of current dollars)................ Other checkable deposits (billions of current dollars).................... Overnight repurchase agreements (billions of current dollars)...... Term repurchase agreements, commercial banks (billions of current dollars)............................................................................. Term repurchase agreements, thrifts (billions of current dollars) .. Overnight Eurodollars (billions of current dollars)........................... Travelers checks (billions of current dollars)................................... Demographic Number of families (millions) ........................................................... Number of households (millions)...................................................... Number of unrelated individuals (millions)...................................... Civilian labor force, men, age 16 and over (millions)..................... Civilian labor force, women, age 16 and over (millions)................ Armed Forces (millions).................................................................... Self-employed (millions).................................................................... Unpaid family workers (millions)....................................................... Private household workers and conceptual difference (millions).... Foreign activity World gross domestic product (billions of 1972 dollars) ............... 4,529.500 5,283.698 5,948.898 5,567.898 6,361.296 5,764.398 6,617.893 World gross domestic product deflator (1972 — 100)................... 297.100 433.500 610.900 412.000 528.300 391.400 480.800 71.48 82.90 92.42 89.21 105.74 93.62 Exchange rate (1972 — 100).......................................................... 120.06 6.692 8.011 5.200 6.692 8.011 6.692 Miltary agency transfers (billions of 1972 dollars).......................... 8.011 51.217 51.217 40.116 60.270 60.270 51.217 60.270 Exports, factor income (billions of 1972 dollars) ............................ 98 Table A-1. Values of selected aggregate economic variables, 1984, and assumptions for 1990 and 1995— Continued Variable ♦ Low 1984 1990 1995 High Moderate 1990 1995 1990 1995 Foreign activity— Continued Direct defense expenditures abroad (billions of 1972 dollars)....... Imports of automobiles and parts (billions of 1972 dollars).......... Imports, factor income (billions of 1972 dollars)............................. 5.600 13.700 23.300 6.400 23.800 35.300 7.000 27.900 45.679 6.400 23.800 35.300 7.000 27.900 45.679 6.400 23.800 35.300 7.000 27.900 45.679 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 55.075 30.512 0.098 3.509 19.940 1.948 0.016 0.002 0.007 2.210 0.527 15.859 30.036 13.369 92.145 33.091 0.113 4.015 23.133 1.851 0.016 0.002 0.007 2.460 0.546 18.815 35.698 12.769 97.109 33.102 0.131 4.514 25.677 1.900 0.016 0.002 0.007 2.650 0.557 20.651 39.183 12.269 92.145 33.091 0.113 4.015 23.133 1.851 0.016 0.002 0.007 2.523 0.554 18.815 35.698 12.769 97.109 33.102 0.131 4.514 25.677 1.900 0.016 0.002 0.007 2.785 0.571 20.651 39.183 12.269 92.145 33.091 0.113 4.015 23.133 1.851 0.016 0.002 0.007 2.563 0.563 18.815 35.698 12.769 97.109 33.102 0.131 4.514 25.677 1.900 0.016 0.002 0.007 2.872 0.586 20.651 39.183 12.269 28.15 40.18 56.10 40.18 56.10 40.18 56.10 2.75 4.10 5.91 4.10 5.91 4.10 5.91 0.65 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 1.79 17.162 1.79 23.632 1.79 30.962 1.79 23.632 1.79 30.962 1.79 23.632 1.79 30.962 Miscellaneous Ratio of minimum wage to average hourly earnings...................... Capital consumption adjustment, corporate profits (billions of 1972 dollars)............................................................................... Ratio of consumption of small trucks to new cars......................... Military clothing and shoes (billions of 1972 dollars)..................... Food furnished employees (billions of 1972 dollars)...................... Financial services furnished free (billions of 1972 dollars) ........... Capacity value, new housing (millions)............................................ Farm housing starts (millions).......................................................... Public multi-unit housing starts (millions)........................................ Public single-unit housing starts (millions) ...................................... Residential equipment (billions of 1972 dollars) ............................. Farm residential structures (billions of 1972 dollars) ..................... Gas mileage, city driving, all cars (miles per gallon)...................... Gas mileage, highway driving, all cars (miles per gallon).............. Persons traveling to work by non-automobile means (millions)..... Domestic wellhead price, lower 48, crude petroleum (dollars per barrel)........................................................................................... Domestic wellhead price, natural gas (dollars per million cubic feet)............................................................................................. Ratio of consumption of new automobiles to total personal consumption expenditures ......................................................... Ratio of non old-age survivors insurance contributions to personal income less transfer payments.................................. Business transfer payments (billions of 1972 dollars) ................... 99 Table B-1. Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force by age and sex, 1984 and projected 1985-95 (Population and labor force in thousands and labor force participation in percent) Group 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Population Total, 16 and o ve r...................... 176,386 178,177 180,167 182,154 183,785 185,284 186,655 M en........................................... 83,609 84,485 85,437 86,402 87,187 87,905 88,568 16 to 2 4 ................................. 17,495 17,028 16,674 16,426 16,012 15,567 15,162 24 to 54 ................................. 45,041 46,105 47,226 48,312 49,391 50,456 51,407 55 and over............................ 21,073 21,352 21,537 21,664 21,784 21,882 21,999 Women ..................................... 92,777 93,692 94,730 95,752 96,598 97,379 98,087 16 to 2 4 ................................. 17,928 17,475 17,114 16,868 16,477 16,054 15,653 24 to 54 ................................. 47,437 48,439 49,551 50,595 51,614 52,631 53,544 55 and over............................ 27,412 27,778 28,065 28,289 28,507 28,694 28,890 W hite......................................... 152,349 154,004 155,487 156,936 158,076 159,095 160,017 Men ........................................ 72,725 73,587 74,313 75,030 75,592 76,092 76,549 Women................................... 79,624 80,417 81,174 81,906 82,484 83,003 83,468 Black and other........................ 24,037 24,173 24,680 25,218 25,709 26,189 26,638 Men ........................................ 10,884 10,898 11,124 11,372 11,595 11,813 12,019 Women................................... 13,153 13,275 13,556 13,846 14,114 14,376 14,619 Black......................................... 19,347 19,597 19,934 20,297 20,615 20,920 21,204 Men ........................................ 8,652 8,753 8,909 9,075 9,223 9,365 9,498 Women................................... 10,695 10,844 11,025 11,222 11,392 11,555 11,706 188,082 189,438 190,875 192,294 193,817 89,262 14,914 52,229 22,119 98,820 15,406 54,320 29,094 160,984 77,031 83,953 27,098 12,231 14,867 21,491 9,631 11,860 89,921 14,700 52,983 22,238 99,517 15,188 55,043 29,286 161,889 77,481 84,408 27,549 12,440 15,109 21,765 9,759 12,006 90,621 14,580 53,655 22,386 100,254 15,068 55,679 29,507 162,862 77,969 84,893 28,013 12,652 15,361 22,063 9,902 12,161 91,312 14,409 54,348 22,555 100,982 14,898 56,338 29,746 163,818 78,447 85,371 28,476 12,865 15,611 22,349 10,037 12,312 92,065 14,254 55,054 22,757 101,752 14,746 56,994 30,012 164,860 78,975 85,885 28,957 13,090 15,867 22,658 10,185 12,473 Labor force participation Total, 16 and o ve r...................... 64.4 64.5 64.7 64.9 65.2 65.4 65.7 66.0 66.2 66.3 66.5 66.6 M en........................................... 16 to 24 ................................. 24 to 54 ................................. 55 and over............................ Women ..................................... 16 to 2 4 ................................. 24 to 5 4 ................................. 55 and over............................ W hite......................................... Men ........................................ Women................................... Black and other........................ Men ........................................ Women................................... Black......................................... Men ........................................ Women................................... 76.3 72.7 93.9 41.8 53.6 62.8 68.2 22.2 64.6 77.1 53.3 62.6 71.4 55.3 62.2 70.8 55.2 76.2 72.9 93.8 40.7 54.0 63.1 69.1 21.8 64.8 76.9 53.7 62.7 71.3 55.6 62.5 70.9 55.8 76.1 72.7 93.8 39.7 54.5 63.1 70.2 21.5 65.0 76.8 54.2 63.0 71.4 56.2 62.9 70.9 56.4 75.9 72.6 93.7 38.7 54.9 63.2 71.1 21.1 65.1 76.6 54.6 63.3 71.4 56.7 63.1 70.8 56.9 75.8 72.8 93.6 37.8 55.5 63.5 72.2 20.7 65.4 76.5 55.2 63.7 71.4 57.3 63.4 70.8 57.4 75.8 73.2 93.6 36.8 56.1 64.0 73.1 20.4 65.7 76.5 55.7 64.1 71.6 57.9 63.8 70.9 58.0 75.8 73.6 93.5 35.9 56.6 64.5 74.0 20.0 65.9 76.5 56.2 64.5 71.7 58.6 64.1 71.0 586 75.7 73.9 93.4 35.2 57.1 64.9 74.9 19.7 66.1 76.4 56.8 64.9 71.8 59.2 64.5 71.0 59.2 75.6 74.1 93.3 34.5 57.6 65.1 75.8 19.5 66.3 76.2 57.2 65.2 71.8 59.7 64.8 71.1 59.6 75.5 74.2 93.2 33.9 58.0 65.2 76.6 19.3 66.5 76.1 57.7 65.5 71.8 60.2 65.0 71.0 60.0 75.4 74.1 93.1 33.5 58.5 65.3 77.4 19.2 66.6 76.0 58.0 65.7 71.8 60.7 65.2 70.9 60.5 75.3 73.9 93.0 33.1 58.9 65.3 78.1 19.1 66.8 75.8 58.4 65.9 71.7 61.1 65.3 70.8 60.8 Labor force Total, 16 and o ve r...................... 113,537 114,950 116,574 118,217 119,739 121,256 122,653 124,042 125,318 126,596 M en........................................... 63,833 64,380 64,978 65,605 66,129 66,662 67,146 67,598 67,998 68,405 16 to 2 4 ................................. 12,727 12,421 12,124 11,928 11,657 11,401 11,163 11,027 10,891 10,814 24 to 54 ................................. 42,302 43,268 44,300 45,285 46,246 47,207 48,079 48,794 49,446 50,012 55 and over............................ 8,804 8,691 8,554 8,392 8,226 8,054 7,904 7,777 7,661 7,579 Women ..................................... 49,704 50,570 51,596 52,612 53,610 54,594 55,507 56,444 57,320 58,191 16 to 2 4 ................................. 11,260 11,020 10,799 10,660 10,469 10,279 10,089 9,991 9,887 9,829 24 to 5 4 ................................. 32,360 33,493 34,775 35,997 37,241 38,470 39,632 40,709 41,722 42,663 55 and over ............................ 6,084 6,057 6,022 5,955 5,900 5,845 5,786 5,744 5,711 5,699 W hite......................................... 98,491 99,799 101,019 102,242 103,363 104,467 105,467 106,459 107,361 108,260 Men ........................................ 56,061 56,608 57,039 57,486 57,845 58,203 58,524 58,814 59,065 59,317 Women................................... 42,430 43,191 43,980 44,756 45,518 46,264 46,943 47,645 48,296 48,943 Biack and other........................ 15,046 15,151 15,555 15,975 16,376 16,789 17,186 17,583 17,957 18,336 Men ........................................ 7,772 7,772 7,939 8,119 8,284 8,459 8,622 8,784 8,933 9,088 Women................................... 7,274 7,379 7,616 7,856 8,092 8,330 8,564 8,799 9,024 9,248 Black......................................... 12,032 12,252 12,530 12,806 13,067 13,344 13,602 13,859 14,094 14,332 Men ........................................ 6,127 6,206 6,315 6,423 6,527 6,638 6,740 6,842 6,934 7,030 Women................................... 5,905 6,046 6,215 6,383 6,540 6,706 6,862 7,017 7,160 7,302 100 127,860 129,168 68,832 10,674 50,611 7,547 59,028 9,728 43,584 5,716 109,147 59,594 49,553 18,713 9,238 9,475 14,564 7,119 7,445 69,282 10,540 51,200 7,542 59,886 9,623 44,519 5,744 110,086 59,894 50,192 19,082 9,388 9,694 14,796 7,215 7,581 Table B-2. Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force by race, age, and sex, 1984 and projected 1990 and 1995 (Population and labor force in thousands and labor force participation in percent) Group Population 1984 White, 16 and over..................................... 152,349 Labor force Labor force participation 1990 1995 1984 1990 1995 1984 1990 1995 160,017 164,860 64.6 65.9 66.8 98,491 105,467 110,086 M en........................................................... 16 to 1 7 ................................................. 18 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 24 ................................................. 25 to 2 9 .................................................. 30 to 34 ................................................. 35 to 3 9 .................................................. 40 to 44 ................................................. 45 to 4 9 ................................................. 50 to 54 ................................................. 55 to 5 9 ................................................. 60 to 61 ................................................. 62 to 64 ................................................. 65 to 6 9 ................................................. 70 to 71 .................................................. 72 to 74 ................................................. 75 and over............................................ Women ..................................................... 16 to 1 7 ................................................. 18 to 1 9 .................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 25 to 2 9 ................................................. 30 to 34 ................................................. 35 to 3 9 ................................................. 40 to 4 4 ................................................. 45 to 4 9 .................................................. 50 to 5 4 .................................................. 55 to 5 9 ................................................. 60 to 61 ................................................. 62 to 6 4 ................................................. 65 to 6 9 ................................................. 70 to 71 ................................................. 72 to 7 4 ................................................. 75 and over............................................ 72,725 3,019 3,094 8,522 8,775 8,041 7,103 5,751 4,800 4,635 4,756 1,837 2,624 3,635 1,197 1,577 3,359 79,624 2,899 3,135 8,782 8,897 8,176 7,335 5,936 4,998 4,916 5,248 2,106 3,058 4,475 1,677 2,137 5,849 76,549 2,672 2,806 7,117 8,655 9,019 8,272 7,521 5,914 4,790 4,351 1,773 2,597 3,953 1,331 1,696 4,082 83,468 2,568 2,848 7,380 8,705 9,124 8,422 7,676 6,107 5,040 4,713 1,975 2,988 4,873 1,733 2,325 6,991 78,975 2,787 2,519 6,450 7,454 8,776 9,061 8,321 7,465 5,782 4,581 1,639 2,403 3,853 1,406 1,885 4,593 85,885 2,675 2,574 6,717 7,511 8,804 9,161 8,422 7,630 6,033 4,923 1,809 2,724 4,653 1,827 2,566 7,856 77.1 47.0 70.7 86.5 94.8 96.0 96.3 95.7 94.1 89.9 81.6 69.2 48.0 24.8 18.3 14.5 7.7 53.3 44.8 65.2 72.5 70.8 68.8 69.5 69.7 66.1 59.3 49.4 39.6 28.3 14.1 8.5 6.5 2.4 76.5 48.2 73.4 88.1 94.9 95.8 95.7 95.2 93.4 89.5 79.9 63.2 42.1 20.1 14.9 12.3 6.7 56.2 44.9 64.9 76.2 77.0 75.9 76.2 74.7 70.7 63.5 50.5 38.7 28.4 12.9 7.4 5.9 1.9 75.8 49.3 75.6 89.5 94.9 95.6 95.3 94.7 92.7 89.3 78.7 59.0 37.7 16.8 12.5 10.6 6.1 58.4 44.9 64.8 79.0 81.7 81.4 81.2 79.3 74.0 66.7 51.3 38.1 28.3 12.1 6.7 5.1 1.6 56,061 1,420 2,189 7,370 8,315 7,721 6,842 5,506 4,518 4,165 3,880 1,271 1,259 900 219 229 257 42,430 1,300 2,043 6,363 6,297 5,624 5,101 4,139 3,302 2,915 2,593 833 866 631 142 138 143 58,524 1,288 2,060 6,270 8,214 8,640 7,916 7,160 5,524 4,287 3,476 1,121 1,093 795 198 209 273 46,943 1,153 1,848 5,624 6,703 6,925 6,418 5,734 4,318 3,200 2,380 764 849 629 128 137 133 59,894 1,374 1,904 5,773 7,074 8,390 8,635 7,880 6,920 5,163 3,605 967 906 647 176 200 280 50,192 1,201 1,668 5,306 6,136 7,166 7,439 6,679 5,646 4,024 2,525 689 771 563 122 131 126 Black and other, 16 and over.................... 24,037 26,638 28,957 62.6 64.5 65.9 15,046 17,186 19,082 M en........................................................... 16 to 1 7 .................................................. 18 to 1 9 ................................................. 20 to 2 4 ................................................. 25 to 29 ................................................. 30 to 34 ................................................. 35 to 3 9 ................................................. 40 to 44 ................................................. 45 to 4 9 .................................................. 50 to 54 ................................................. 55 to 5 9 ................................................. 60 to 61 .................................................. 62 to 6 4 .................................................. 65 to 6 9 .................................................. 70 to 71 .................................................. 72 to 74 .................................................. 75 and over............................................ 10,884 636 638 1,586 1,476 1,304 1,052 813 684 607 562 216 290 365 144 158 353 12,019 599 595 1,373 1,645 1,589 1,367 1,119 837 679 562 208 290 420 139 165 432 13,090 618 552 1,328 1,502 1,741 1,640 1,383 1,117 812 640 217 294 431 148 194 473 71.4 26.9 55.3 77.2 87.1 89.5 90.8 90.3 87.3 81.9 68.9 58.8 43.4 22.5 16.7 13.3 6.2 71.7 27.5 55.0 76.7 85.6 88.3 90.2 90.2 87.3 81.6 66.4 54.3 41.0 18.6 13.7 9.7 4.9 71.7 27.7 54.5 76.6 84.2 87.2 89.5 90.3 87.3 81.7 64.4 52.1 39.5 16.5 11.5 7.2 3.8 7,772 171 353 1,224 1,285 1,167 955 734 597 497 387 127 126 82 24 21 22 8,622 165 327 1,053 1,408 1,403 1,233 1,009 731 554 373 113 119 78 19 16 21 9,388 171 301 1,017 1,265 1,518 1,468 1,249 975 663 412 113 116 71 17 14 18 101 Table B-2. Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force by race, age, and sex, 1984 and projected 1990 and 1995—Continued (Population and labor force in thousands and labor force participation in percent) Group Population Labor force participation Labor force 1984 1990 1995 1984 1990 1995 1984 1990 1995 W o m e n ............................................................ 16 to 1 7 ....................................................... 18 to 1 9 ....................................................... 20 to 2 4 ........................................................ 25 to 2 9 ........................................................ 30 to 3 4 ........................................................ 35 to 3 9 ........................................................ 40 to 4 4 ....................................................... 45 to 4 9 ........................................................ 50 to 5 4 ........................................................ 55 to 5 9 ........................................................ 60 to 61 ........................................................ 13,153 642 672 1,798 1,751 1,579 1,259 1,002 830 758 721 267 14,619 597 641 1,619 1,845 1,816 1,611 1,345 1,014 839 737 286 15,867 618 596 1,566 1,704 1,916 1,847 1,622 1,339 1,005 821 294 55.3 24.6 45.8 60.5 68.4 70.6 74.0 72.3 67.2 60.0 53.0 43.8 58.6 26.1 45.4 62.8 72.9 76.7 78.6 77.3 73.5 65.0 54.1 43.4 61.1 27.0 45.5 64.5 76.5 81.5 81.9 80.9 78.0 69.1 54.7 42.9 7,274 158 308 1,088 1,198 1,115 932 724 558 455 382 117 8,564 156 291 1,017 1,345 1,393 1,266 1,040 745 545 399 124 9,694 167 271 1,010 1,304 1,562 1,513 1,312 1,044 694 449 126 Black, 16 and o v e r.......................................... 19,347 21,204 22,658 62.2 64.1 65.3 12,032 13,602 14,796 M e n .................................................................. 16 to 1 7 ........................................................ 18 to 1 9 ....................................................... 20 to 2 4 ....................................................... 25 to 3 4 ........................................................ 35 to 4 4 ........................................................ 45 to 5 4 ........................................................ 55 to 5 9 ........................................................ 60 to 6 4 ....................................................... 65 and o v e r................................................. W o m e n ............................................................ 16 to 1 7 ........................................................ 18 to 1 9 ........................................................ 20 to 2 4 ........................................................ 25 to 3 4 ....................................................... 35 to 4 4 ....................................................... 45 to 5 4 ....................................................... 55 to 5 9 ........................................................ 60 to 6 4 ........................................................ 65 and o v e r................................................. 8,652 524 531 1,292 2,164 1,411 1,012 453 404 861 10,695 532 574 1,491 2,625 1,756 1,276 593 526 1,322 9,498 482 483 1,116 2,596 1,907 1,145 438 396 935 11,706 486 525 1,322 2,961 2,292 1,450 584 557 1,529 10,185 492 434 1,045 2,587 2,346 1,436 475 388 982 12,473 496 475 1,240 2,879 2,715 1,788 635 551 1,694 70.8 26.9 56.1 79.1 88.9 90.1 83.8 68.4 48.3 13.7 55.2 23.9 45.3 60.6 71.5 73.7 64.5 53.6 37.5 8.0 71.0 25.7 54.0 77.6 87.8 89.6 83.0 64.6 44.7 9.7 58.6 24.9 45.7 62.4 76.0 79.0 68.2 53.9 37.7 6.6 70.8 24.8 52.3 76.3 87.1 89.2 82.3 63.6 42.8 7.4 60.8 25.8 45.9 64.0 79.2 82.5 71.1 54.0 37.9 5.8 6,127 141 298 1,022 1,924 1,271 848 310 195 118 5,905 127 260 904 1,876 1,294 823 318 197 106 6,740 124 261 866 2,279 1,709 950 283 177 91 6,862 121 240 825 2,250 1,811 989 315 210 101 7,215 122 227 797 2,253 2,093 1,182 302 166 73 7,581 128 218 794 2,280 2,240 1,271 343 209 98 102 Table C-1. Gross national product by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995 (Millions of 1977 dollars) 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High T o ta l.......................................................................................... 1,976,566 2,367,276 3,006,427 3,240,651 3,550,885 1. Dairy and poultry products.................................................. 2. Meat animals and livestock................................................ 3. C o tto n ...................................................................................... 4. Food and feed g rains........................................................... 5. Other agricultural products................................................. 2,375 -1,156 1,705 8,793 14,397 2,612 -1,240 2,272 11,534 16,573 2,826 -1,017 2,107 13,903 18,136 3,029 -1,324 2,299 15,213 20,458 3,322 -1,704 2,484 16,497 23,235 6. Forestry and fishery products ............................................ 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................... 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.......................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ................................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except copper............... -1,175 1,053 -1,334 -40 -69 -2,007 1,436 -949 13 -243 -2,878 1,888 -1,018 84 -324 -2,836 2,035 -1,129 103 -262 -2,700 2,170 -1,272 123 -202 Industry 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ............................................................................ Crude petroleum and gas, except drilling ...................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying.............................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ............................ Maintenance and repair construction.............................. 2,525 -33,955 1,028 128 16,339 3,741 -19,620 1,168 -33 18,032 5,395 -26,311 1,245 176 20,186 6,054 -26,805 1,404 281 22,005 6,727 -27,262 1,501 387 22,889 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance................................................................................ Guided missiles and space v eh icle s............................... Meat products....................................................................... Dairy products....................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s .................................................. 3,574 4,657 28,260 17,864 17,353 5,549 4,844 31,150 18,071 19,382 7,509 9,166 36,264 18,440 22,553 7,836 9,218 39,009 19,749 24,342 8,156 9,269 42,845 21,581 26,888 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products............................................................... Bakery products ................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products ...................................................... Alcoholic beverages............................................................. 8,275 10,072 53 5,313 10,533 10,526 10,936 407 7,344 12,024 14,173 9,946 -329 8,909 14,292 15,259 10,630 -266 9,533 15,359 16,758 11,615 -162 10,483 17,049 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings .................................................. Other food products............................................................. Tobacco manufacturing...................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ............................................ Floor covering m ills.............................................................. 7,677 12,267 10,195 2,151 3,881 8,373 16,135 9,334 988 3,641 10,341 19,377 8,191 1,200 4,601 11,069 20,882 8,804 1,601 5,131 12,141 22,962 9,769 2,085 5,725 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products.................................................. Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................... Apparel ................................................................................... Other fabricated textile products...................................... Logging................................................................................... 280 1,957 29,235 4,671 977 160 1,251 31,647 4,162 1,115 175 2,315 27,879 4,903 1,516 280 2,508 31,259 5,378 1,714 398 2,753 35,642 6,041 1,923 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills ................................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products............... Wooden containers.............................................................. Household furniture.............................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household....................... 4,316 11,166 -17 9,655 5,977 4,213 14,388 14 11,070 8,839 3,806 19,173 16 12,546 11,590 4,071 20,207 20 14,376 13,008 4,203 20,968 25 16,595 14,738 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products..................................................................... Paperboard............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing.................................. Periodical, book printing and publishing ......................... Other printing and publishing ............................................ 6,319 679 3,741 7,747 3,648 7,558 541 4,000 10,257 4,768 9,587 772 3,962 12,891 6,175 10,913 868 4,233 13,992 6,828 12,557 970 4,682 15,093 7,458 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals.................... Agricultural chem icals.......................................................... Other chemical products.................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber ............................ Synthetic fib e rs ..................................................................... 4,132 1,118 2,005 1,327 210 4,968 2,824 2,604 1,914 521 1,330 2,262 4,127 2,817 925 2,284 2,576 4,498 3,301 1,069 3,255 2,905 4,997 3,814 1,219 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ....................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations...................................... Paints and allied products.................................................. Petroleum refining and related products......................... Tires and inner tubes........................................................... 8,001 12,245 2,167 43,570 4,202 10,139 12,952 2,231 37,561 4,168 17,091 16,609 2,441 37,876 3,125 18,847 17,845 2,592 41,974 3,335 21,008 19,759 2,691 44,372 4,202 See footnotes at end of table. 103 Table C-1. Gross national product by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ........................ Plastic products.................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather............................. Leather products including footw ear............................... G la ss........................................................................................ 1,746 3,502 10 5,523 1,479 2,469 4,990 -46 4,270 984 2,233 7,791 -70 3,004 1,159 2,525 8,832 -49 3,542 1,399 2,850 9,987 -26 4,251 1,646 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products......................................... Structural clay products....................................................... Pottery and related products............................................. Other stone and clay products.......................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products......................... 9,180 1,307 782 2,711 -1,219 9,014 1,167 710 2,452 -3,790 10,398 1,307 505 3,533 -11,141 11,134 1,385 641 3,832 -11,109 11,592 1,433 808 4,163 -10,954 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s............................ Primary copper and copper products.............................. Primary aluminum and aluminum products.................... Primary nonferrous metals and products........................ Metal containers .................................................................... 1,580 2,677 21 -1,793 295 1,401 2,127 -687 -3,301 279 1,760 1,669 -3,250 -6,573 404 1,932 1,963 -3,119 -6,641 461 2,070 2,342 -2,951 -6,684 525 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtu re s....................... Fabricated structural metal products............................... Screw machine products.................................................... Metal stam pings................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardware.............................. 2,053 17,272 61 1,908 3,165 1,586 15,736 -25 2,013 2,705 1,509 21,551 -166 2,042 3,255 1,603 23,229 -95 2,336 3,670 1,679 24,864 -9 2,654 4,152 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal p roducts....................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................... Farm machinery.................................................................... Construction, mining, oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipm ent.............................................. 5,702 4,681 9,460 13,691 4,058 6,298 2,627 6,072 11,422 3,197 7,873 3,588 7,575 15,952 5,555 8,927 4,140 8,893 16,786 6,135 9,963 4,695 10,359 16,939 7,075 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery...................................................... Special industry m achinery................................................ General industrial m achinery............................................. Other nonelectrical machinery........................................... Computers and peripheral equipm ent............................. 8,615 6,745 7,962 490 10,167 9,228 6,069 8,163 1,103 35,852 11,915 7,416 10,563 1,119 77,876 13,326 8,415 12,141 1,269 87,639 16,307 9,799 13,818 1,446 99,082 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipm ent........................ Service industry m achines................................................. Electric transmission equipment ...................................... Electrical industrial apparatus............................................ Household appliances......................................................... 1,759 7,257 6,232 2,991 9,177 2,833 7,464 7,168 2,416 11,173 2,776 10,855 8,678 3,326 11,916 3,332 12,026 9,727 3,794 13,517 3,973 13,438 10,791 4,308 15,392 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g ................................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ............................... Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................... Radio and communication equipm ent............................. Electronic com ponents........................................................ 4,992 4,051 5,550 12,482 2,069 5,677 6,339 10,252 25,305 1,986 6,698 6,552 17,680 42,633 -438 7,299 9,123 19,903 46,010 1,866 8,007 12,355 22,920 50,143 4,383 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent.................... 97. Motor veh icle s....................................................................... 98. A irc ra ft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.................................... 100. Railroad equipm ent............................................................. 4,436 77,166 19,592 8,558 3,266 4,849 70,008 28,523 9,573 1,553 8,207 75,708 35,621 12,656 1,044 9,046 83,531 37,790 13,218 1,330 10,272 101,581 40,096 13,738 1,629 Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................... Other transportation equipm ent........................................ Scientific and controlling instrum ents............................. Medical and dental instrum ents....................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipm ent................................. 568 6,527 5,620 3,379 1,931 819 6,497 6,766 5,204 3,174 399 9,082 10,292 8,581 4,354 552 9,414 11,560 9,298 4,812 688 10,224 12,786 9,800 5,310 106. Photographic equipment and supplies........................... 107. Watches and clo cks............................................................ 108. Jewelry and silverw are...................................................... 109. Musical instruments and sporting goods....................... 110. Other manufactured products........................................... 6,094 722 4,324 5,487 3,841 7,868 172 3,015 7,031 2,997 9,932 -147 2,863 7,990 2,776 11,211 -17 3,534 8,798 3,190 12,656 116 4,219 9,939 3,630 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. See footnotes at end of table. 104 Table C-1. Gross national product by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation...................................................... Local transit and intercity b u se s ..................................... Truck transportation............................................................ Water transportation ........................................................... Air transportation................................................................. 7,685 7,640 16,908 8,454 14,824 7,495 6,767 18,980 10,761 15,106 8,146 7,947 26,826 11,164 19,688 8,748 8,568 28,846 11,854 21,519 9,562 9,151 31,212 12,564 23,610 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation........................................................ Transportation services..................................................... Radio and television broadcasting.................................. Communications except radio and television............... Electric utilities, public and private.................................. 912 777 344 30,168 30,733 906 1,405 697 44,328 37,758 1,225 2,376 745 82,578 50,408 1,341 2,602 791 89,244 54,498 1,427 2,841 860 98,200 59,027 121. Gas utilities, excluding public............................................ 122. Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................. 123. Wholesale tra d e ................................................................... 124. Eating and drinking places................................................ 125. Retail trade, except eating and d rinking........................ 11,152 5,452 105,163 65,836 185,390 10,485 6,532 147,968 78,150 233,093 8,248 7,995 172,489 90,816 276,053 9,199 8,557 186,296 96,560 295,009 10,177 9,289 202,944 105,555 323,775 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................. Credit agencies and financial brokers............................ Insurance............................................................................... Owner-occupied real e sta te .............................................. Real e sta te ............................................................................ 26,378 11,994 33,297 131,812 68,443 36,814 19,566 40,500 166,171 85,009 50,828 33,193 45,242 247,358 127,588 54,237 35,348 48,319 261,423 134,984 58,753 38,384 52,472 292,015 147,787 131. Hotels and lodging places................................................. 132. Personal and repair services............................................ 133. Barber and beauty sho p s.................................................. 134. Miscellaneous business services.................................... 135. Advertising............................................................................. 12,010 18,822 7,149 17,151 1,026 12,879 19,969 7,252 27,088 1,072 16,694 20,127 6,966 38,211 1,514 17,721 21,393 7,399 40,151 1,680 19,386 23,197 8,039 42,123 1,767 136. Miscellaneous professional service s.............................. 137. Automobile re p a ir................................................................ 138. Motion pictures.................................................................... 139. Amusements and recreation services............................ 140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services........................................ 26,624 27,193 3,482 13,436 42,001 38,781 28,037 4,824 17,829 55,724 54,465 29,705 7,291 27,154 78,841 58,360 32,055 7,865 28,834 84,027 62,317 34,565 8,597 31,308 91,121 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals................................................................................ Medical services, except hospitals................................. Educational services (private)........................................... Nonprofit organizations...................................................... Post O ffice............................................................................. 44,669 18,166 23,099 24,468 3,741 56,533 23,388 25,421 31,428 4,160 66,056 35,042 27,149 41,444 4,532 70,826 38,040 28,721 44,023 4,867 76,475 40,937 31,041 47,816 5,260 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit C orporation......................................... Other Federal enterprises................................................. Local government passenger tra n s it.............................. Other State and local enterprises................................... Noncomparable im p o rts .................................................... -81 -37 0 3,746 -13,374 -70 52 0 4,249 -20,673 -8 173 0 4,365 -14,896 -8 213 0 4,668 -14,821 -8 254 0 5,061 -14,221 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand goods.............................. New construction industry................................................. Government industry........................................................... Rest-of-worid industry......................................................... Private households.............................................................. Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................... -2,673 73,870 203,934 23,464 5,930 -18,582 3,619 83,446 211,463 17,550 5,161 -9,000 -2,396 105,170 229,979 57,094 3,868 -18,347 -3,526 110,522 235,421 66,566 4,133 -22,112 -3,174 115,318 238,491 75,965 4,524 -26,774 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 105 Table C-2. Personal consumption expenditures by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995 (Millions of 1977 dollars) 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High T o ta l.......................................................................................... 1,246,481 1,522,188 1,929,209 2,053,484 2,257,935 1. Dairy and poultry products.................................................. 2. Meat animals and livestock................................................ 3. C o tto n ....................................................................................... 4. Food and feed grains........................................................... 5. Other agricultural products................................................. 2,210 301 0 493 7,232 2,410 609 0 555 8,347 2,577 795 0 613 8,870 2,739 844 0 652 9,432 2,990 917 0 712 10,321 6. Forestry and fishery products ............................................ 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................... 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.......................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ................................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except copper............... 788 353 0 0 0 1,210 703 0 0 0 2,231 973 0 0 0 2,372 1,034 0 0 0 2,591 1,124 0 0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ............................................................................ Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ...................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying.............................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ............................ Maintenance and repair construction.............................. 215 0 20 2 0 288 0 18 2 0 314 0 39 1 0 335 0 41 2 0 353 0 46 2 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance................................................................................ Guided missiles and space ve h icle s............................... Meat products........................................................................ Dairy products........................................................................ Canned and frozen fo o d s .................................................. 630 0 27,204 16,334 16,834 945 0 29,688 16,749 18,412 1,174 0 34,039 17,532 22,388 1,265 0 36,174 18,632 23,792 1,359 0 39,487 20,338 25,971 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products............................................................... Bakery products ................................................................... Sugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products ....................................................... Alcoholic beverages.......................................................... 6,702 9,676 1,315 5,754 11,777 8,736 10,575 1,178 7,771 13,977 11,570 9,438 1,068 9,498 17,554 12,296 10,030 1,135 10,094 18,655 13,422 10,949 1,239 11,019 20,363 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings.................................................. Other food products............................................................. Tobacco m anufacturing....................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ............................................ Floor covering m ills.............................................................. 7,395 10,516 8,437 882 1,852 8,017 14,810 8,470 1,196 2,082 9,880 17,318 7,452 1,375 2,498 10,500 18,404 7,946 1,468 2,826 11,462 20,090 8,781 1,597 3,227 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products.................................................. Hosiery and knit g o o d s ...................................................... Apparel ................................................................................... Other fabricated textile products....................................... Logging................................................................................... 192 1,828 31,366 4,068 0 222 1,133 40,598 4,148 0 234 2,293 45,992 5,138 0 258 2,450 49,134 5,506 0 291 2,651 53,174 6,078 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills ................................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products............... Wooden containers.............................................................. Household furniture.............................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household........................ 0 548 0 8,642 566 0 672 0 9,724 1,030 0 1,442 0 11,342 1,255 0 1,625 0 12,834 1,420 0 1,847 0 14,654 1,622 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products...................................................................... Paperboard............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing.................................. Periodical, book printing and publishing ......................... Other printing and publishing ............................................ 5,307 192 3,715 5,469 1,054 6,261 171 3,985 7,579 1,573 8,444 263 3,949 9,385 2,536 9,006 280 4,210 10,086 2,705 9,925 309 4,653 10,903 2,990 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals.................... Agricultural chem icals.......................................................... Other chemical products.................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r............................ Synthetic fib e rs..................................................................... 89 285 775 0 0 114 253 1,109 0 0 84 347 1,373 0 0 89 370 1,427 0 0 99 409 1,604 0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ....................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations...................................... Paints and allied products.................................................. Petroleum refining and related products........................ Tires and inner tubes........................................................... 5,598 11,322 168 38,595 3,984 6,685 11,879 150 33,761 4,545 13,707 15,170 230 33,306 4,506 14,616 16,170 245 35,646 4,570 16,152 17,875 271 36,502 5,290 Industry See footnotes at end of table. 106 Table C-2. Personal consumption expenditures by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1995 Moderate 1995 Low 1984 1995 High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ....................... Plastic products.................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather............................. Leather products including footw ear............................... G lass....................................................................................... 1,477 983 0 7,609 829 1,649 1,850 0 8,729 791 1,722 3,261 0 8,630 834 1,833 3,657 0 9,228 937 2,012 4,155 0 9,989 1,067 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products........................................ Structural clay products...................................................... Pottery and related products............................................. Other stone and clay products.......................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products......................... 1 0 776 346 11 2 0 774 356 11 2 0 719 521 14 2 0 813 553 14 2 0 929 610 16 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rgings............................. Primary copper and copper products.............................. Primary aluminum and aluminum products.................... Primary nonferrous metals and products....................... Metal containers................................................................... 0 10 38 0 0 0 14 34 0 0 0 12 22 0 0 0 14 25 0 0 0 16 28 0 0 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtu re s ...................... Fabricated structural metal products............................... Screw machine products.................................................... Metal stam pings................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardware.............................. 314 60 69 729 1,586 178 67 75 649 1,746 202 57 96 672 2,014 228 65 103 760 2,212 261 74 114 868 2,486 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal products...................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................... Farm m achinery.................................................................... Construction, mining, oilfield m achinery.......................... Material handling equipm ent.............................................. 452 207 105 0 0 433 190 118 0 0 511 314 144 0 0 552 339 163 0 0 617 362 186 0 0 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery..................................................... Special industry m achinery................................................ General industrial m achinery............................................. Other nonelectrical machinery........................................... Computers and peripheral equipm ent............................. 281 92 0 40 86 315 103 0 63 1,000 376 101 0 66 7,133 425 114 0 67 8,071 485 130 0 78 9,216 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipm ent......................... Service industry m achines................................................. Electric transmission equipment ...................................... Electrical industrial apparatus............................................ Household appliances........................................................ 334 432 47 44 7,014 375 604 48 49 9,336 582 812 77 47 9,425 658 900 82 54 10,633 752 1,030 90 61 12,121 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g ................................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ................................. Telephone and telegraph apparatus............................... Radio and communication equipm ent............................. Electronic com ponents....................................................... 1,318 7,617 30 681 529 1,625 14,607 64 1,818 1,644 1,728 19,796 418 1,902 3,038 1,881 22,368 473 2,152 3,422 2,122 25,543 541 2,458 3,910 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent.................... 97. Motor vehicles ...................................................................... 98. A irc ra ft.................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.................................... 100. Railroad equipm ent............................................................. 2,003 46,124 427 2,734 0 2,519 51,324 597 3,823 0 3,766 63,101 651 3,985 0 3,912 63,967 703 4,304 0 4,469 74,100 750 4,590 0 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ..................................... Other transportation equipm ent....................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents............................. Medical and dental instruments ...................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipm ent................................. 1,379 2,949 53 599 952 1,429 3,386 61 891 1,729 1,664 4,237 77 1,247 2,106 1,798 4,328 85 1,338 2,274 1,917 4,969 96 1,453 2,426 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ........................... Watches and clocks............................................................ Jewelry and silverware ...................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods....................... Other manufactured products........................................... 1,427 1,275 5,158 5,573 1,954 2,244 824 5,657 8,790 1,687 3,323 1,430 6,673 9,002 1,736 3,565 1,559 7,261 9,661 1,883 3,874 1,685 7,831 10,647 2,092 See footnotes at end of table. 107 Table C-2. Personal consumption expenditures by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation....................................................... Local transit and intercity b u se s ...................................... Truck transportation............................................................ Water transportation ........................................................... Air transportation................................................................. 3,295 5,852 8,379 1,873 12,769 3,745 5,054 8,973 2,379 13,350 3,940 5,859 10,608 2,194 17,816 4,162 6,298 11,260 2,339 19,084 4,620 6,807 12,375 2,511 20,681 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation........................................................ Transportation services...................................................... Radio and television broadcasting.................................. Communications except radio and television............... Electric utilities, public and private.................................. 579 462 344 22,394 25,816 552 814 697 30,867 31,313 680 1,389 745 52,992 43,728 728 1,494 791 56,589 47,250 746 1,614 860 61,919 51,509 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public............................................ Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................. Wholesale tra d e ................................................................... Eating and drinking places................................................ Retail trade, except eating and d rin kin g ........................ 11,237 4,771 51,956 67,477 170,594 10,952 5,703 71,062 79,382 214,609 9,966 6,940 78,838 91,884 254,352 10,695 7,414 84,184 97,648 271,680 11,587 8,104 92,107 106,591 298,816 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking.................................................................................. Credit agencies and financial brokers............................ Insurance............................................................................... Owner-occupied real e sta te .............................................. Real e sta te ............................................................................ 22,304 11,088 32,140 131,812 49,502 32,604 18,588 39,214 166,171 60,980 45,304 31,893 44,012 247,358 95,343 48,120 33,875 46,904 261,423 100,770 52,279 36,803 50,898 292,015 112,526 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places................................................. Personal and repair services............................................ Barber and beauty s h o p s.................................................. Miscellaneous business services.................................... Advertising............................................................................. 11,039 18,273 7,149 4,210 19 11,583 19,304 7,252 7,396 18 14,508 19,080 6,966 11,079 31 15,369 20,278 7,399 11,794 33 16,945 22,047 8,039 12,815 36 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional service s .............................. Automobile re p a ir................................................................ Motion pictures.................................................................... Amusements and recreation services............................ Doctors' and dentists’ services........................................ 9,634 25,437 2,726 13,292 39,189 11,717 26,000 3,584 17,658 52,018 20,605 27,051 5,113 26,861 74,520 21,886 29,089 5,431 28,532 79,153 23,778 31,434 5,904 31,002 85,994 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals................................................................................ Medical services, except hospitals................................. Educational services (private)........................................... Nonprofit organizations...................................................... Post O ffice............................................................................. 37,784 11,067 21,113 24,255 2,692 48,346 13,980 23,914 31,169 3,000 54,743 24,103 25,320 41,084 3,295 58,146 25,601 26,894 43,638 3,519 63,172 27,814 29,219 47,409 3,850 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit C orporation......................................... Other Federal enterprises................................................. Local government passenger tra n s it.............................. Other State and local enterprises................................... Noncomparable im p o rts.................................................... 0 0 0 3,575 8,727 0 0 0 4,050 13,659 0 0 0 4,061 14,487 0 0 0 4,339 15,433 0 0 0 4,722 16,851 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s.............................. New construction industry................................................. Government industry........................................................... Rest-of-world industry......................................................... Private households.............................................................. Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................... 5,502 0 0 -7,221 5,930 0 6,888 0 0 -8,134 5,161 0 9,424 0 0 -11,270 3,868 0 9,327 0 0 -11,972 4,133 0 11,138 0 0 -13,013 4,524 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 108 Table C-3. Gross private domestic investment by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995 (Millions of 1977 dollars) 1995 Moderate 1995 High 1977 1984 1995 Low T o ta l.......................................................................................... 336,629 452,370 569,119 615,596 672,484 Dairy and poultry products.................................................. Meat animals and livestock................................................ C o tto n ...................................................................................... Food and feed g rains........................................................... Other agricultural products................................................. 75 -1,258 -143 -682 2,656 119 -1,645 -166 -871 2,752 120 -2,020 -229 -1,509 2,606 144 -2,435 -276 -1,819 3,141 175 -2,948 -334 -2,203 3,803 6. Forestry and fishery products ............................................ 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................... 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.......................................... 9. Copper ore m ining................................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except copper............... 34 131 -437 -3 434 43 149 -716 -5 384 54 168 -702 -4 523 65 173 -847 -5 599 79 178 -1,025 -6 671 Industry 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ............................................................................ Crude petroleum and gas, except drilling ...................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying.............................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ............................ Maintenance and repair construction.............................. 161 806 641 39 179 300 648 600 63 211 258 585 748 63 249 311 739 781 76 257 377 892 822 92 267 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance................................................................................ Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................... Meat products....................................................................... Dairy products....................................................................... Canned and frozen fo o d s .................................................. 181 -36 345 159 532 334 -43 544 196 891 291 -31 638 255 854 348 -43 769 307 1,029 420 -57 931 372 1,246 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products............................................................... Bakery products ................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products ...................................................... Alcoholic beverages............................................................. 169 108 104 20 150 315 151 84 27 177 354 173 84 32 183 427 209 102 38 219 517 253 123 46 264 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings.................................................. Other food products............................................................. Tobacco manufacturing...................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ............................................ Floor covering m ills.............................................................. 119 -83 365 1,082 1,953 222 -55 280 1,017 1,778 191 -92 171 994 2,752 230 -111 206 1,199 2,940 278 -135 250 1,451 3,128 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products.................................................. Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................... Apparel ................................................................................... Other fabricated textile products...................................... Logging................................................................................... 109 133 2,355 257 93 176 108 2,383 179 173 172 130 2,952 233 149 196 157 3,554 273 179 225 190 4,299 324 217 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills ................................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products............... Wooden containers.............................................................. Household furniture.............................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household....................... 5,935 10,591 8 1,163 4,692 5,957 14,234 14 1,598 7,876 5,730 18,180 12 1,566 9,834 5,916 18,887 15 1,880 10,942 5,978 19,354 18 2,264 12,403 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products..................................................................... Paperboard............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing.................................. Periodical, book printing and publishing ........................ Other printing and publishing ............................................ 1,184 185 6 215 377 1,899 142 12 401 702 1,778 172 15 345 605 2,039 206 18 416 729 2,360 249 22 504 882 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals.................... Agricultural chem icals.......................................................... Other chemical products.................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r............................ Synthetic fib e rs ..................................................................... 1,247 222 504 201 58 1,222 233 593 475 57 1,450 107 733 419 59 1,683 129 817 505 72 1,940 156 923 612 87 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ...................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations...................................... Paints and allied products.................................................. Petroleum refining and related products........................ Tires and inner tubes........................................................... 388 268 1,558 5,914 673 524 367 1,573 5,520 539 458 422 1,760 7,045 722 552 494 1,825 7,897 842 668 583 1,860 8,959 991 See footnotes at end of table. 109 Table C-3. Gross private domestic investment by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ........................ Plastic products.................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather............................. Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................... G lass........................................................................................ 284 1,919 18 211 294 337 2,811 24 363 290 427 3,057 29 256 329 489 3,327 35 308 366 561 3,638 42 372 414 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products......................................... Structural clay products...................................................... Pottery and related products............................................. Other stone and clay products.........................................N. Blast furnaces and basic steel products......................... 6,777 1,149 425 1,962 4,048 6,875 1,137 529 1,860 3,328 7,448 1,179 684 2,576 3,910 7,731 1,221 726 2,725 4,199 8,045 1,258 782 2,908 4,624 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and forgings............................. Primary copper and copper products.............................. Primary aluminum and aluminum products.................... Primary nonferrous metals and products........................ Metal containers................................................................... 820 2,668 666 180 193 698 2,785 756 249 186 1,050 3,657 748 266 238 1,128 3,861 870 315 282 1,218 4,184 1,022 377 336 71. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtu re s ...................... 72. Fabricated structural metal products............................... 73. Screw machine products.................................................... 74. Metal stam pings................................................................... 75. Cutlery, handtools, general hardware.............................. 1,495 12,517 186 251 1,309 1,287 11,704 321 248 1,131 1,113 15,815 303 326 1,542 1,152 16,835 350 388 1,649 1,179 18,136 409 463 1,778 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal products...................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................... Farm m achinery.................................................................... Construction, mining, oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipm ent.............................................. 4,139 2,086 9,071 9,595 3,586 5,377 1,321 5,897 8,261 3,052 7,068 1,637 8,251 10,812 4,907 7,776 1,885 9,417 10,797 5,376 8,534 2,139 10,731 10,108 6,214 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery..................................................... Special industry m achinery................................................ General industrial m achinery............................................. Other nonelectrical machinery........................................... Computers and peripheral equipm ent............................. 7,933 5,435 6,271 241 6,160 9,275 6,535 7,901 412 26,529 13,145 6,778 9,259 420 57,556 14,381 7,437 10,306 489 63,590 17,173 8,467 11,456 578 71,056 86. Typewriters and other office equipm ent......................... 87. Service industry m achines................................................. 88. Electric transmission equipment ...................................... 89. Electrical industrial apparatus............................................ 90. Household appliances......................................................... 1,829 5,008 5,180 2,210 2,320 2,772 5,411 5,219 1,974 2,495 3,745 7,445 6,730 2,280 3,442 4,163 8,154 7,489 2,534 3,701 4,670 9,139 8,286 2,831 3,966 91. Electric lighting and w irin g ................................................. 92. Radio and television receiving s e ts ................................. 93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................... 94. Radio and communication equipm ent............................. 95. Electronic com ponents........................................................ 2,726 436 5,315 5,994 525 3,521 930 11,023 14,650 1,888 3,999 952 17,095 21,153 1,942 4,226 1,064 19,148 23,540 2,331 4,539 1,216 21,976 26,670 2,812 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent.................... 97. Motor veh icle s.................................................................... .. 98. A irc ra ft.................................................................................. .. 99. Ship and boat building and repair.................................... 100. Railroad equipm ent............................................................. 2,001 35,280 2,964 2,427 2,904 2,058 39,127 4,059 1,055 1,352 3,610 42,758 4,626 2,026 1,309 3,942 48,575 5,379 2,222 1,561 4,259 55,628 6,244 2,421 1,836 Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ..................................... Other transportation equipm ent........................................ Scientific and controlling instrum ents............................. Medical and dental instrum ents...................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipm ent................................. 129 3,461 3,531 1,812 1,108 120 3,111 4,709 3,019 1,637 169 4,646 7,281 5,215 2,468 196 4,848 8,217 5,559 2,689 234 4,980 9,133 5,715 2,971 106. Photographic equipment and supplies........................... 107. Watches and clocks............................................................ 108. Jewelry and silverw are...................................................... 109. Musical instruments and sporting goods....................... 110. Other manufactured products........................................... 3,267 95 473 491 1,511 4,907 87 582 492 1,366 5,459 70 511 859 1,455 6,040 84 616 942 1,627 6,793 102 746 1,053 1,805 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. See footnotes at end of table. 110 Table C-3. Gross private domestic Investment by Industry, 1977,1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. 1977 1995 Moderate 1995 Low 1984 1995 High Railroad transportation...................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ..................................... Truck transportation............................................................ Water transportation........................................................... Air transportation................................................................. 1,718 70 3,657 412 409 1,972 82 4,089 508 618 2,336 98 6,514 668 770 2,542 102 7,072 736 842 2,766 107 7,743 816 934 116. Pipeline transportation........................................................ 117. Transportation services..................................................... 118. Radio and television broadcasting.................................. 119. Communications except radio and television............... 120. Electric utilities, public and private.................................. 96 1 0 3,941 277 127 1 0 8,751 330 151 1 0 17,976 390 178 1 0 19,965 401 212 1 0 22,730 417 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public............................................ Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................. Wholesale trade ................................................................... Eating and drinking places................................................ Retail trade, except eating and d rinking........................ 144 53 28,848 126 13,829 169 61 45,834 162 17,357 199 73 52,045 175 20,095 205 75 57,282 181 21,523 214 79 63,333 187 23,070 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. Banking.................................................................................. Credit agencies and financial brokers............................ Insurance............................................................................... Owner-occupied real e sta te .............................................. Real e sta te ............................................................................ 576 5 932 0 11,105 668 8 1,049 0 14,412 775 9 1,271 0 18,319 799 9 1,315 0 18,655 832 9 1,389 0 18,456 131. Hotels and lodging places................................................. 132. Personal and repair services............................................ 133. Barber and beauty s ho p s .................................................. 134. Miscellaneous business services.................................... 135. Advertising............................................................................. 135 56 0 1,896 11 147 72 0 3,508 11 191 84 0 3,669 14 197 87 0 3,800 14 205 92 0 4,032 14 136. Miscellaneous professional services.............................. 137. Automobile re p a ir................................................................ 138. Motion pictures.................................................................... 139. Amusements and recreation services............................ 140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services........................................ 7,156 677 145 1 0 12,041 876 270 1 0 13,663 1,016 232 1 0 14,109 1,055 280 1 0 14,789 1,126 339 2 0 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals................................................................................ Medical services, except hospitals................................. Educational services (private)........................................... Nonprofit organizations...................................................... Post O ffice............................................................................. 0 0 0 4 58 0 0 0 4 68 0 0 0 5 81 0 0 0 5 83 0 0 0 6 87 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit C orporation......................................... Other Federal enterprises................................................. Local government passenger tra n s it.............................. Other State and local enterprises................................... Noncomparable im p o rts.................................................... 0 0 0 30 55 0 0 0 35 81 0 0 0 42 89 0 0 0 43 106 0 0 0 45 127 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s.............................. New construction industry................................................. Government industry........................................................... Rest-of-world industry......................................................... Private households.............................................................. Inventory valuation adjustm ent........................................ -10,373 58,136 0 0 0 -18,582 -4,413 68,684 0 0 0 -9,000 -15,566 83,239 0 0 0 -18,347 -17,138 85,923 0 0 0 -22,112 -19,052 89,927 0 0 0 -26,774 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. Ill Table C-4. Net exports of goods and services by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995 (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High T o ta l.......................................................................................... -2,111 -52,284 -47,071 -11,670 25,185 Dairy and poultry products.................................................. Meat animals and livestock................................................ C o tto n ...................................................................................... Food and feed g rains........................................................... Other agricultural products................................................. 43 -205 1,251 6,215 4,010 31 -211 1,922 10,012 4,990 61 198 1,970 12,969 6,057 69 256 2,209 14,543 7,233 78 316 2,452 16,147 8,438 6. Forestry and fishery products ............................................ 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................... 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.......................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ................................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except copper............... -1,088 21 -848 -13 -512 -2,160 25 -152 58 -641 -4,173 54 -206 138 -862 -4,267 61 -172 158 -876 -4,355 68 -137 179 -888 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ............................................................................ Crude petroleum and gas, except d rilling ...................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying.............................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ............................ Maintenance and repair construction.............................. 2,010 -34,860 -105 -3 26 2,995 -20,355 77 -190 30 4,673 -26,937 -178 20 55 5,246 -27,586 -145 100 62 5,830 -28,196 -111 184 69 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance................................................................................ Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................... Meat products........................................................................ Dairy products........................................................................ Canned and frozen fo o d s .................................................. 896 536 -173 21 -584 749 160 -75 -198 -548 1,055 529 23 -1,113 -1,533 1,197 593 307 -1,107 -1,427 1,342 658 602 -1,099 -1,312 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products............................................................... Bakery products ................................................................... Sugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products ...................................................... Alcoholic beverages............................................................. 1,293 -19 -1,397 -511 -1,385 1,343 -120 -889 -513 -2,121 2,075 -117 -1,537 -699 -3,429 2,345 -113 -1,564 -685 -3,496 2,621 -109 -1,587 -669 -3,558 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings.................................................. Other food products............................................................. Tobacco m anufacturing...................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ............................................ Floor covering m ills.............................................................. 106 1,599 1,393 74 -3 68 1,085 584 -1,378 -288 170 1,854 568 -1,416 -766 226 2,246 652 -1,325 -765 283 2,647 738 -1,228 -763 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products.................................................. Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................... Apparel ................................................................................... Other fabricated textile products...................................... Logging................................................................................... -56 -4 -5,128 77 884 -275 10 -12,274 -498 942 -273 -109 -22,090 -939 1,367 -220 -99 -22,560 -9^0 1,535 -165 -89 -22,995 -899 1,706 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills ................................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products ............... Wooden containers.............................................................. Household furniture.............................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household........................ -1,777 -717 -30 -271 -178 -1,898 -1,222 -7 -375 -959 -2,124 -1,424 -7 -544 -732 -2,067 -1,380 -5 -536 -714 -2,002 -1,330 -3 -527 -692 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products..................................................................... Paperboard............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing.................................. Periodical, book printing and publishing ......................... Other printing and publishing ............................................ -1,575 165 -14 281 75 -2,060 63 -39 278 -107 -2,319 96 -59 503 28 -2,010 117 -59 614 69 -1,683 139 -60 728 113 46. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals.................... 47. Agricultural chem icals.......................................................... 48. Other chemical products.................................................... 49. Plastic materials and synthetic ru bb e r............................ 50. Synthetic fib e rs ..................................................................... 1,267 389 248 1,101 139 2,119 2,107 363 1,401 441 -1,524 1,587 1,157 2,354 814 -877 1,832 1,355 2,751 946 -202 2,083 1,558 3,157 1,080 176 189 154 -8,673 -638 539 144 121 -8,534 -1,125 -959 218 47 -9,379 -2,396 -676 305 68 -9,179 -2,418 -380 395 91 -8,949 -2,436 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ...................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations...................................... Paints and allied products.................................................. Petroleum refining and related products......................... Tires and inner tubes........................................................... See footnotes at end of table. 112 Table C-4. Net exports of goods and services by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ....................... Plastic products.................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather............................. Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................... G la ss....................................................................................... -498 140 -9 -2,348 36 -156 -159 -70 -4,890 -397 -852 825 -99 -5,987 -364 -812 1,138 -84 -6,117 -313 -768 1,462 -68 -6,239 -259 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products........................................ Structural clay products...................................................... Pottery and related products............................................. Other stone and clay products.......................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products......................... -85 -68 -499 8 -5,770 -257 -169 -670 -139 -7,497 -337 -178 -1,008 -39 -15,514 -330 -178 -1,019 37 -15,823 -323 -177 -1,028 116 -16,107 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s............................. Primary copper and copper products.............................. Primary aluminum and aluminum products.................... Primary nonferrous metals and products....................... Metal containers................................................................... 93 -424 -813 -1,997 24 -5 -1,086 -1,634 -3,569 -20 -150 -2,629 -4,192 -6,859 -2 -130 -2,599 -4,190 -6,976 7 -109 -2,562 -4,179 -7,082 17 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtu re s...................... Fabricated structural metal products............................... Screw machine products.................................................... Metal stam pings................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardware.............................. 106 769 -311 751 -140 -17 481 -563 925 -526 -32 1,286 -766 773 -820 -20 1,483 -755 898 -759 -7 1,684 -741 1,026 -695 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal products...................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................... Farm machinery.................................................................... Construction, mining, oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipm ent.............................................. -151 1,525 183 3,607 226 -860 431 -59 2,567 -140 -1,561 510 -981 4,409 257 -1,417 771 -866 5,204 351 -1,263 1,040 -745 6,018 447 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery..................................................... Special industry m achinery................................................ General industrial m achinery............................................. Other nonelectrical machinery........................................... Computers and peripheral equipm ent............................. 135 1,106 1,220 65 2,722 -694 -718 -310 468 2,134 -2,068 338 509 419 208 -1,952 662 1,008 492 2,903 -1,826 998 1,525 567 5,700 86. Typewriters and other office equipment ......................... 87. Service industry m achines................................................. 88. Electric transmission equipment ...................................... 89. Electrical industrial apparatus............................................ 90. Household appliances........................................................ -796 1,022 245 339 -308 -643 672 978 -37 -836 -2,270 1,325 882 307 -1,245 -2,253 1,567 1,121 503 -1,139 -2,230 1,816 1,367 706 -1,026 Electric lighting and w irin g ................................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ................................. Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................... Radio and communication equipm ent............................. Electronic com ponents....................................................... 220 -4,124 111 796 241 -193 -9,332 -980 -118 -3,500 -62 -14,459 -834 1,820 -8,579 57 -14,589 -718 2,473 -7,128 180 -14,691 -597 3,148 -5,603 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent.................... 97. Motor veh icle s...................................................................... 98. Aircraft .................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.................................... 100. Railroad equipm ent............................................................. 96 -7,289 6,399 368 209 -133 -23,543 5,173 -174 143 253 -34,665 7,211 -480 -452 576 -34,125 8,569 -454 -442 911 -33,484 9,962 -426 -430 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ..................................... Other transportation equipm ent....................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents............................. Medical and dental instruments ...................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipm ent................................. -972 85 924 350 -388 -770 -32 511 519 -549 -1,501 151 927 1,169 -896 -1,531 184 1,201 1,355 -840 -1,560 217 1,483 1,546 -781 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ........................... Watches and clocks............................................................ Jewelry and silverware ...................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods....................... Other manufactured products........................................... 186 -693 -1,301 -925 -311 -604 -801 -3,227 -2,607 -530 -842 -1,760 -4,347 -2,431 -1,112 -535 -1,777 -4,374 -2,414 -1,093 -215 -1,790 -4,392 -2,391 -1,072 See footnotes at end of table. 113 Table C-4. Net exports of goods and services by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation...................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ..................................... Truck transportation............................................................ Water transportation ........................................................... Air transportation................................................................. 1,988 0 1,744 5,358 -86 910 0 2,000 6,683 -376 658 0 3,587 6,376 -1,802 761 0 4,020 6,819 -1,485 867 0 4,462 7,264 -1,151 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation........................................................ Transportation services...................................................... Radio and television broadcasting.................................. Communications except radio and television............... Electric utilities, public and private.................................. 125 296 0 985 -290 92 569 0 2,137 -449 230 941 0 5,708 -519 258 1,054 0 6,398 -500 287 1,170 0 7,100 -480 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public............................................ Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................. Wholesale tra d e ................................................................... Eating and drinking places................................................ Retail trade, except eating and d rin kin g ........................ -1,641 7 17,733 81 58 -2,150 6 23,291 166 86 -4,408 16 29,776 464 141 -4,480 18 32,099 520 158 -4,544 20 34,439 577 175 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking.................................................................................. Credit agencies and financial brokers............................ Insurance............................................................................... Owner-occupied real e sta te .............................................. Real e sta te ............................................................................ 179 112 -185 0 3,705 247 158 -178 0 5,008 365 241 -715 0 7,219 409 270 -662 0 8,091 454 300 -606 0 8,979 131. Hotels and lodging places................................................. 132. Personal and repair services............................................ 133. Barber and beauty sho p s .................................................. 134. Miscellaneous business service s.................................... 135. Advertising............................................................................. 16 13 0 1,195 23 22 25 0 1,925 34 34 73 0 3,019 55 38 82 0 3,452 63 42 91 0 3,895 72 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional service s .............................. Automobile re p a ir................................................................ Motion pictures.................................................................... Amusements and recreation services............................ Doctors’ and dentists’ services........................................ 2,162 -9 406 0 1 4,005 -13 715 0 1 7,403 -22 1,514 0 3 8,298 -22 1,705 0 4 9,210 -22 1,900 0 4 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals................................................................................ Medical services, except hospitals................................. Educational services (private)........................................... Nonprofit organizations...................................................... Post O ffice............................................................................. 0 0 0 73 40 0 0 0 103 58 0 0 0 158 90 0 0 0 177 101 0 0 0 197 112 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit C orporation......................................... Other Federal enterprises................................................. Local government passenger tra n s it.............................. Other State and local enterprises................................... Noncomparable im p o rts.................................................... 0 154 0 1 -26,610 0 216 0 1 -38,948 0 330 0 1 -35,613 0 370 0 1 -36,503 0 411 0 ., 1 -37,343 151. Scrap, used and secondhand goods.............................. 152. New construction industry................................................. 153. Government industry........................................................... 154. Rest-of-world industry......................................................... 155. Private households.............................................................. 156. Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................... 1,294 1 0 31,001 0 0 166 1 0 25,969 0 0 2,536 1 0 69,063 0 0 2,903 1 0 79,257 0 0 3,277 1 0 89,677 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 114 Table C-5. Government purchases of goods and services by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995 (Millions of 1977 dollars) 1984 1995 Low T o ta l......................................................................................... 395,566 445,002 555,170 583,242 595,281 1. Dairy and poultry products...................................^............ 3. C otto n ...................................................................................... 4. Food and feed grains........................................................... 5. Other agricultural products................................................. 47 7 597 2,767 499 53 7 517 1,837 484 68 10 366 1,830 603 77 11 366 1,837 653 80 11 366 1,840 674 6. Forestry and fishery products ............................................ 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................... 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.......................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ................................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except copper............... -909 548 -49 -25 9 -1,099 560 -82 -41 14 -991 693 -110 -50 15 -1,006 768 -110 -50 15 -1,015 799 -110 -50 15 11. Coal m ining............................................................................ 12. Crude petroleum and gas, except drilling ...................... 13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying.............................. 14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ............................ 15. Maintenance and repair construction.............................. 140 99 471 89 16,134 157 87 473 91 17,791 149 42 636 92 19,881 161 42 727 104 21,686 167 42 744 110 22,553 16. O rdnance................................................................................ 17. Guided missiles and space v eh icle s............................... 18. Meat products....................................................................... 19. Dairy products....................................................................... 20. Canned and frozen fo o d s .................................................. 1,868 4,158 885 1,351 571 3,521 4,727 993 1,324 628 4,989 8,669 1,564 1,766 845 5,025 8,669 1,759 1,917 947 5,035 8,669 1,826 1,970 983 Grain mill products............................................................... Bakery products ................................................................... Sugar....................................................................................... Confectionery products ...................................................... Alcoholic beverages............................................................. 112 307 30 51 -10 131 330 34 59 -10 174 451 56 78 -16 191 504 62 85 -19 198 522 64 87 -20 26. Soft drinks and flavorings.................................................. 27. Other food products............................................................. 28. Tobacco manufacturing...................................................... 29. Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ............................................ 30. Floor covering m ills.............................................................. 56 235 0 114 79 66 295 0 154 69 99 297 0 246 117 113 343 0 260 130 118 360 0 265 133 31. Other textile mill products.................................................. 32. Hosiery and knit goods ...................................................... 33. Apparel ................................................................................... 34. Other fabricated textile products...................................... 35. Logging................................................................................... 35 0 641 269 0 37 0 941 332 0 41 0 1,025 471 0 45 0 1,131 519 0 47 0 1,164 538 0 36. Sawmills and planing m ills ................................................. 37. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products............... 38. Wooden containers.............................................................. 39. Household furniture.............................................................. 40. Furniture and fixtures, except household....................... 158 745 5 121 897 155 704 7 123 892 200 975 10 182 1,233 221 1,074 10 198 1,360 227 1,098 10 204 1,406 Paper products..................................................................... Paperboard............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing.................................. Periodical, book printing and publishing ........................ Other printing and publishing ............................................ 1,403 137 34 1,782 2,142 1,458 164 42 1,999 2,601 1,685 241 58 2,657 3,006 1,877 265 64 2,876 3,324 1,954 273 67 2,957 3,473 46. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals.................... 47. Agricultural chem icals.......................................................... 48. Other chemical products.................................................... 49. Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r............................ 50. Synthetic fib e rs ..................................................................... 1,529 223 479 25 14 1,513 231 539 38 23 1,319 221 863 45 52 1,388 245 898 45 52 1,419 256 912 45 52 51. 52. 53. 54. 1,839 465 286 7,733 183 2,392 563 388 6,814 209 3,885 799 404 6,903 292 4,356 876 454 7,610 341 4,568 906 469 7,859 356 2. Meat animals and livestock................................................ 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Drugs ...................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations...................................... Paints and allied products.................................................. Petroleum refining and related products......................... 55. Tires and inner tubes........................................................... See footnotes at end of table. 115 1995 Moderate 1995 High 1977 Industry Table C-5. Government purchases of goods and services by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tu b e s ........................ Plastic products..................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather............................. Leather products including footw ear............................... G la ss........................................................................................ 483 459 1 51 320 638 488 1 69 300 937 649 0 104 360 1,015 710 0 124 408 1,045 731 0 129 425 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products......................................... Structural clay products....................................................... Pottery and related products............................................. Other stone and clay products.......................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products......................... 2,486 225 80 395 492 2,394 199 77 375 368 3,285 306 110 475 449 3,731 341 121 518 500 3,869 352 124 529 514 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s............................. Primary copper and copper products.............................. Primary aluminum and aluminum products.................... Primary nonferrous metals and products........................ Metal containers.................................................................... 666 423 130 23 79 707 415 157 19 113 859 629 171 20 168 934 687 177 21 171 961 704 179 21 172 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtu re s....................... Fabricated structural metal products............................... Screw machine products..................................................... Metal stam pings.................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardware.............................. 137 3,926 117 176 410 138 3,484 142 191 354 225 4,393 201 271 518 242 4,847 207 290 567 246 4,970 209 297 582 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal products....................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................... Farm machinery..................................................................... Construction, mining, oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipm ent.............................................. 1,261 862 100 489 246 1,348 685 115 594 286 1,855 1,127 161 731 391 2,016 1,144 179 785 408 2,075 1,154 187 813 414 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery...................................................... Special industry m achinery................................................ General industrial m achinery............................................. Other nonelectrical m achinery........................................... Computers and peripheral equipm ent............................. 267 111 471 144 1,199 331 149 572 160 6,190 462 199 794 214 12,980 472 202 826 221 13,075 475 204 837 224 13,110 86. Typewriters and other office equipm ent......................... 87. Service industry m achines................................................. 88. Electric transmission equipm ent....................................... 89. Electrical industrial apparatus............................................ 90. Household appliances......................................................... 392 796 759 398 151 329 777 923 430 177 719 1,273 990 691 293 763 1,405 1,035 704 322 782 1,452 1,048 709 331 91. Electric lighting and w irin g ................................................. 92. Radio and television receiving s e ts ................................. 93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus............................... 94. Radio and communication equipm ent............................. 95. Electronic com ponents........................................................ 729 123 94 5,011 774 723 134 145 8,954 1,954 1,033 263 1,000 17,758 3,160 1,136 280 1,000 17,844 3,241 1,165 287 1,000 17,868 3,264 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent.................... 97. Motor veh icle s....................................................................... 98. A irc ra ft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair..................................... 100. Railroad equipm ent............................................................. 336 3,051 9,802 3,029 152 405 3,100 18,694 4,869 58 579 4,514 23,133 7,124 187 616 5,114 23,139 7,146 211 631 5,337 23,140 7,153 223 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................... Other transportation equipm ent........................................ Scientific and controlling instrum ents............................. Medical and dental instrum ents....................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipm ent................................. 31 32 1,112 618 259 40 32 1,485 776 357 66 49 2,006 949 676 90 55 2,057 1,046 689 97 57 2,074 1,087 694 106. Photographic equipment and supplies........................... 107. Watches and clo cks............................................................ 108. Jewelry and silverw are....................................................... 109. Musical instruments and sporting goods........................ 110. Other manufactured products........................................... 1,215 45 -6 349 687 1,321 61 2 356 474 1,992 113 25 559 697 2,141 117 31 610 774 2,203 118 34 630 803 See footnotes at end of table. 116 Table C-5. Government purchases of goods and services by industry, 1977, 1984, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1977 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 111. Railroad transportation....................................................... 112. Local transit and intercity b u s e s ..................................... 113. Truck transportation............................................................ 114. Water transportation........................................................... 115. Air transportation................................................................. 685 1,718 3,128 811 1,733 867 1,630 3,919 1,191 1,514 1,212 1,990 6,117 1,926 2,904 1,284 2,168 6,493 1,960 3,078 1,309 2,237 6,632 1,973 3,146 116. Pipeline transportation........................................................ 117. Transportation services..................................................... 118. Radio and television broadcasting.................................. 119. Communications except radio and television............... 120. Electric utilities, public and private.................................. 111 18 0 2,848 4,929 135 20 0 2,574 6,584 164 46 0 5,902 6,809 177 53 0 6,292 7,347 182 56 0 6,451 7,581 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public............................................ Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................. Wholesale tra d e ................................................................... Eating and drinking places................................................ Retail trade, except eating and d rinking........................ 1,413 621 6,626 -1,848 909 1,514 762 7,781 -1,560 1,042 2,492 965 11,831 -1,707 1,465 2,779 1,050 12,732 -1,789 1,649 2,920 1,086 13,064 -1,799 1,714 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking.................................................................................. Credit agencies and financial brokers............................ Insurance............................................................................... Owner-occupied real e sta te .............................................. Real e sta te ............................................................................ 3,319 789 410 0 4,131 3,295 812 414 0 4,609 4,384 1,051 675 0 6,707 4,909 1,194 763 0 7,467 5,187 1,272 791 0 7,825 131. Hotels and lodging places................................................. 132. Personal and repair services............................................ 133. Barber and beauty sho p s .................................................. 134. Miscellaneous business services.................................... 135. Advertising............................................................................. 820 480 0 9,850 972 1,126 567 0 14,259 1,009 1,961 890 0 20,444 1,414 2,117 946 0 21,105 1,569 2,194 967 0 21,381 1,645 136. Miscellaneous professional service s .............................. 137. Automobile re p a ir................................................................ 138. Motion pictures.................................................................... 139. Amusements and recreation services............................ 140. Doctors’ and dentists’ services........................................ 7,672 1,088 205 143 2,811 11,018 1,174 255 170 3,705 12,794 1,660 430 291 4,317 14,067 1,933 448 301 4,870 14,540 2,028 454 304 5,123 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals................................................................................ Medical services, except hospitals................................. Educational services (private)........................................... Nonprofit organizations...................................................... Post O ffice............................................................................. 6,885 7,098 1,986 136 951 8,187 9,408 1,507 152 1,035 11,313 10,939 1,829 197 1,066 12,680 12,439 1,826 203 1,165 13,303 13,123 1,822 205 1,212 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit C orporation......................................... Other Federal enterprises................................................. Local government passenger tra n s it.............................. Other State and local enterprises................................... Noncomparable im p o rts.................................................... -81 -191 0 139 4,453 -70 -165 0 163 4,535 -8 -157 0 261 6,141 -8 -157 0 284 6,143 —8 -157 0 292 6,144 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s.............................. New construction industry................................................. Government industry........................................................... Rest-of-world industry......................................................... Private households.............................................................. Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................... 904 15,734 203,934 -317 0 0 978 14,761 211,463 -285 0 0 1,210 21,930 229,979 -699 0 0 1,382 24,596 235,421 -699 0 0 1,462 25,389 238,491 -699 0 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 117 Table D-1. Gross duplicated output by industry, selected years, 1959*84, and projected 1995 (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1959 1969 1977 1979 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 1. Dairy and poultry products.................................................. 2. Meat animals and livestock................................................ 3. C o tto n ....................................................................................... 4. Food and feed grains........................................................... 5. Other agricultural products................................................. 19,579 30,654 3,417 20,199 20,051 19,041 33,566 2,962 25,685 26,124 20,048 32,633 4,091 31,135 30,497 20,805 35,595 4,073 34,320 32,423 23,185 38,142 4,643 37,207 34,690 23,789 44,837 4,467 43,369 38,048 25,512 47,926 4,920 46,789 41,960 27,926 52,295 5,448 51,019 46,963 6. Forestry and fishery products ............................................ 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................... 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.......................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ................................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except copper............... 4,326 5,783 1,937 1,037 1,358 3,116 7,595 3,072 1,931 1,479 4,508 8,082 2,084 1,883 1,480 3,711 9,044 3,068 1,989 1,497 4,548 9,984 1,911 1,515 1,181 4,596 12,029 1,680 1,688 914 5,220 12,993 1,946 1,917 1,187 6,036 14,273 2,312 2,204 1,515 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Coal m in in g ............................................................................ Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ...................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying.............................. Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining ............................ Maintenance and repair construction.............................. 10,823 36,599 3,531 1,230 58,418 13,844 53,133 4,632 2,003 61,452 16,878 49,253 4,872 2,182 74,753 18,890 50,564 5,346 2,436 80,280 19,820 51,667 4,749 2,568 84,920 23,591 50,908 5,530 2,489 93,400 25,978 58,045 6,062 2,849 100,733 28,780 65,357 6,579 3,264 109,714 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance................................................................................ Guided missiles and space vehicles ............................... Meat products........................................................................ Dairy products........................................................................ Canned and frozen fo o d s .................................................. 1,957 5,503 26,910 19,208 11,771 10,423 8,751 35,930 19,599 17,798 3,851 5,163 43,798 23,907 23,325 4,169 6,086 44,100 22,850 23,818 5,776 5,723 48,316 24,959 26,362 7,932 10,293 54,694 25,717 31,117 8,308 10,460 58,805 27,544 33,512 8,694 10,644 64,557 30,112 36,906 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products............................................................... Bakery products................................................................... Sugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products ...................................................... Alcoholic beverages............................................................. 14,109 11,876 3,062 4,167 7,735 19,092 13,207 3,846 5,314 11,924 23,869 12,828 4,170 6,419 15,897 23,846 12,786 3,525 6,833 17,522 28,061 14,131 4,136 8,629 17,904 35,221 13,967 3,620 10,441 21,342 37,837 14,926 4,007 11,178 22,923 41,480 16,308 4,580 12,288 25,355 26. Soft drinks and flavorings.................................................. 27. Other food products............................................................. 28. Tobacco manufacturing....................................................... 29. Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ............................................ 30. Floor covering m ills.............................................................. 4,585 18,113 11,394 20,927 1,108 7,891 24,440 11,913 26,179 3,097 11,216 25,482 12,924 29,387 4,784 12,220 29,174 12,493 28,468 5,564 12,381 32,634 11,888 28,444 4,396 14,896 37,950 10,387 28,269 5,694 15,944 40,834 11,163 31,738 6,310 17,476 44,846 12,381 36,243 7,033 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. Other textile mill products.................................................. Hosiery and knit g o o d s ....................................................... Apparel ................................................................................... Other fabricated textile products....................................... Logging................................................................................... 2,486 3,542 21,831 3,407 4,469 3,737 6,838 29,260 6,460 6,151 4,218 9,545 33,250 8,278 9,212 4,549 9,479 32,207 7,936 8,867 4,888 8,724 34,724 7,700 11,261 5,364 9,134 32,169 8,912 13,547 5,975 10,111 35,927 9,754 14,719 6,828 11,375 40,777 11,057 15,967 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. Sawmills and planing m ills ................................................. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products............... Wooden containers.............................................................. Household furniture.............................................................. Furniture and fixtures, except household........................ 10,709 7,179 886 6,250 3,082 10,435 11,376 983 8,278 5,534 12,004 17,905 522 10,614 6,542 12,233 17,762 489 10,956 7,148 13,142 22,461 526 11,861 9,293 14,890 29,280 324 14,052 12,234 16,099 31,167 359 16,101 13,689 17,332 32,963 402 18,589 15,478 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products..................................................................... Paperboard............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing.................................. Periodical, book printing and publishing ......................... Other printing and publishing ............................................ 20,868 6,919 9,888 8,727 12,812 32,373 11,263 12,547 12,927 19,030 38,871 13,381 13,563 14,566 22,996 41,845 13,436 14,291 15,916 25,253 47,436 13,957 15,998 19,463 31,725 58,460 15,980 19,081 24,420 42,051 64,212 17,485 20,566 26,438 45,582 71,504 19,433 22,637 28,732 49,981 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals.................... Agricultural chem icals.......................................................... Other chemical products.................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r............................ Synthetic fib e rs ..................................................................... 16,695 3,730 4,694 4,996 1,935 29,928 7,449 7,657 10,710 4,355 40,693 9,189 8,099 12,673 7,468 41,547 9,653 10,135 13,957 8,574 38,225 9,234 9,742 16,423 7,114 42,581 10,590 12,633 21,306 8,163 47,708 11,630 13,817 23,754 9,144 53,886 12,885 15,345 26,851 10,385 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. Drugs ....................................................................................... Cleaning and toilet preparations....................................... Paints and allied products.................................................. Petroleum refining and related products......................... Tires and inner tubes........................................................... 3,921 6,037 3,987 50,074 5,242 8,344 10,665 5,108 73,309 8,220 13,951 14,985 15,165 15,853 6,707 6,320 99,097 106,568 9,552 8,202 17,596 16,556 6,470 88,027 8,593 26,082 20,771 7,140 99,151 9,051 28,554 22,373 7,727 108,834 9,794 31,593 24,732 8,391 118,167 11,454 118 Table D-1. Gross duplicated output by industry, selected years, 1959-84, and projected 1995—Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1959 1969 1977 1979 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tubes ....................... Plastic products.................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather............................. Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................... G la ss....................................................................................... 6,623 5,991 1,820 7,055 5,424 10,118 14,419 1,658 7,503 7,825 6,624 23,903 1,575 6,335 9,290 6,175 25,382 1,038 5,815 9,184 7,363 31,247 1,112 5,215 8,573 8,349 44,461 886 3,788 9,596 9,244 49,302 1,049 4,406 10,607 10,459 55,461 1,256 5,212 11,929 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products........................................ Structural clay products...................................................... Pottery and related products............................................. Other stone and clay products.......................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products......................... 10,186 1,707 1,040 4,948 43,897 13,189 1,824 1,360 6,461 58,761 14,718 1,770 1,260 8,244 50,802 15,988 1,811 1,365 9,182 55,940 14,957 1,703 1,331 8,391 38,688 16,909 1,857 1,391 10,940 35,103 18,164 1,981 1,611 11,947 40,100 19,178 2,086 1,882 13,184 46,911 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s............................. Primary copper and copper products.............................. Primary aluminum and aluminum products.................... Primary nonferrous metals and products....................... Metal containers................................................................... 9,802 8,853 7>91 7,204 5,174 14,877 13,795 13735 11,509 7,757 15,288 15,107 17^337 9,314 8,867 16,432 15,597 18^850 9,598 8,736 11,877 15,314 17^499 8,942 7,301 13,693 15,702 17^527 7,528 7,851 15,117 17,683 19^946 9,174 8,502 17,095 20,221 23’121 11,315 9,384 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtu re s ...................... Fabricated structural metal products............................... Screw machine products.................................................... Metal stam pings................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardware.............................. 2,751 13,565 4,369 9,193 4,610 3,528 21,712 5,225 13,443 7,087 3,031 24,406 5,056 15,272 8,483 3,252 26,159 5,892 15,013 8,783 2,679 22,842 5,811 13,952 7,664 2,835 30,764 6,753 15,820 9,114 3,038 33,233 7,534 17,502 10,070 3,263 35,846 8,585 20,044 11,328 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal products...................................... Engines, turbines, and generators................................... Farm m achinery.................................................................... Construction, mining, oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipm ent.............................................. 9,360 4,395 5,765 9,279 2,421 14,820 7,884 7,204 13,034 4,778 18,129 10,473 11,731 17,981 4,900 19,959 10,956 13,261 19,911 5,911 20,283 7,727 8,426 15,746 4,174 25,266 9,850 10,654 21,414 6,845 28,050 11,005 12,230 22,777 7,534 31,348 12,346 14,011 23,543 8,599 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking machinery..................................................... Special industry m achinery................................................ General industrial m achinery............................................. Other nonelectrical machinery........................................... Computers and peripheral equipm ent............................. 8,513 6,499 8,762 4,382 1,758 14,135 10,328 14,102 7,639 6,014 13,482 8,904 16,491 8,648 13,182 15,699 9,481 18,243 10,919 22,086 14,564 8,405 17,064 11,118 43,478 18,610 10,191 20,817 14,255 93,472 20,703 11,456 23,393 15,732 105,028 24,472 13,164 26,349 17,713 118,587 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. Typewriters and other office equipm ent......................... Servfce industry m achines................................................. Electric transmission equipment ...................................... Electrical industrial apparatus............................................ Household appliances........................................................ 981 3,357 4,364 5,294 4,931 1,894 8,326 6,969 9,029 8,691 2,921 12,127 8,433 9,715 10,722 3,277 13,639 9,860 11,005 11,282 4,020 12,507 8,969 9,193 11,296 4,707 16,572 12,554 11,808 13,920 5,424 18,273 14,019 13,211 15,650 6,273 20,498 15,592 14,875 17,715 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. Electric lighting and w irin g ................................................. Radio and television receiving s e ts ................................. Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................... Radio and communication equipm ent............................. Electronic com ponents........................................................ 5,211 1,515 2,431 5,323 3,141 8,175 4,071 6,085 15,121 8,533 8,494 6,301 7,929 15,232 15,116 9,523 6,927 10,566 20,138 22,300 10,023 8,839 14,304 30,722 37,746 12,053 9,935 24,242 48,336 72,956 13,190 13,047 27,087 52,155 83,378 14,623 17,038 30,915 56,778 95,868 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent.................... 97. Motor veh icle s...................................................................... 98. Aircraft .................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.................................... 100. Railroad equipm ent............................................................. 3,328 46,333 28,281 4,623 2,398 9,884 5,587 9,025 9,198 82,637 118,632 112,968 109,109 39,865 26,876 36,428 37,519 9,538 10,921 6,881 9,573 4,509 7,043 4,740 2,076 14,044 119,136 47,965 13,891 2,212 15,443 131,088 51,012 14,555 2,606 17,541 156,911 54,311 15,196 3,041 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ..................................... Other transportation equipm ent....................................... Scientific and controlling instrum ents............................. Medical and dental instrum ents...................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipm ent................................. 273 1,338 4,493 1,448 1,194 585 5,115 5,022 3,339 1,460 1,027 6,936 7,093 5,112 2,305 1,156 6,340 7,561 5,907 3,015 1,025 6,852 8,591 7,377 3,590 1,217 9,566 12,816 11,167 5,116 1,459 9,940 14,303 12,083 5,651 1,699 10,813 15,837 12,862 6,237 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. Photographic equipment and supplies ........................... Watches and clocks............................................................ Jewelry and silverware ...................................................... Musical instruments and sporting goods....................... Other manufactured products........................................... 1,940 599 2,810 2,938 4,769 5,674 1,158 4,823 4,601 7,438 9,675 1,431 5,174 6,248 8,761 11,927 1,196 4,387 6,496 8,770 12,337 828 3,847 7,405 7,474 16,137 660 3,742 9,033 8,349 17,926 909 4,520 9,927 9,230 20,019 1,185 5,327 11,179 10,285 119 Table D-1. Gross duplicated output by industry, selected years, 1959-84, and projected 1995— Continued (Millions of 1977 dollars) Industry 1959 1969 1977 1979 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation....................................................... Local transit and intercity b u s e s ..................................... Truck transportation............................................................ Water transportation........................................................... Air transportation................................................................. 17,569 8,692 24,932 14,863 5,900 21,590 9,027 35,950 12,367 17,866 22,917 9,353 49,139 16,329 23,964 25,080 9,845 53,844 19,864 28,764 22,665 8,519 53,942 19,225 26,384 22,312 9,504 69,560 20,379 33,359 24,217 10,261 75,269 21,795 36,374 26,699 11,079 82,344 23,361 39,977 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation........................................................ Transportation services..................................................... Radio and television broadcasting.................................. Communications except radio and television............... Electric utilities, public and private.................................. 1,415 1,889 4,935 14,148 23,788 2,536 3,347 6,457 29,961 43,633 3,365 3,923 8,638 53,884 64,418 3,747 4,275 8,612 64,980 70,800 3,440 5,604 9,669 81,808 83,698 3,896 7,825 11,036 152,493 104,534 4,263 8,510 11,913 164,772 113,373 4,609 9,303 13,097 180,999 124,105 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. Gas utilities, excluding public............................................ Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................. Wholesale tra d e ................................................................... Eating and drinking places................................................ Retail trade, except eating and d rin kin g ........................ 30,143 47,455 45,198 49,081 47,496 2,375 3,177 4,262 5,046 5,845 94,302 152,856 196,680 216,484 254,808 60,174 68,331 89,975 92,729 110,822 97,438 161,267 202,344 217,464 239,682 48,951 7,504 300,628 128,318 296,449 53,662 8,084 326,334 137,051 316,773 59,280 8,839 358,343 149,751 346,989 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking.................................................................................. Credit agencies and financial brokers............................ Insurance............................................................................... Owner-occupied real e sta te .............................................. Real e sta te ............................................................................ 18,209 10,891 33,795 59,353 54,511 29,852 46,263 51,663 61,972 14,237 18,966 21,123 33,174 44,171 67,619 67,750 72,376 91,276 131,812 140,599 166,171 96,237 145,026 160,510 189,236 84,688 47,237 87,130 247,358 270,164 90,758 50,410 93,216 261,423 288,687 98,833 54,820 101,617 292,015 316,734 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places................................................. Personal and repair services............................................ Barber and beauty sho p s.................................................. Miscellaneous business services.................................... Advertising............................................................................. 4,803 17,009 7,991 17,972 5,425 12,369 19,273 9,781 47,918 6,533 18,804 24,908 7,453 79,103 7,027 20,129 20,973 26,132 26,193 7,466 7,600 94,597 138,059 8,352 10,689 28,302 29,288 7,372 221,090 15,021 30,299 31,319 7,829 238,247 16,236 33,137 34,107 8,491 259,798 17,873 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services .............................. Automobile re p a ir................................................................ Motion pictures........................................................ Amusements and recreation service s............................ Doctors’ and dentists’ services........................................ 24,715 25,121 5,898 7,051 19,598 36,993 34,330 5,291 10,056 30,460 52,052 43,601 8,438 16,998 43,365 62,956 47,145 10,348 18,169 46,575 81,390 49,679 12,738 22,171 60,278 117,629 55,164 16,891 32,707 81,278 126,589 59,618 18,295 34,774 86,563 137,243 64,875 20,114 37,761 93,792 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals................................................................................ Medical services, except hospitals................................. Educational services (private)........................................... Nonprofit organizations....................................................... Post O ffice............................................................................. 12,728 5,743 16,739 14,590 9,152 26,789 12,565 19,964 23,211 12,238 47,134 22,236 25,434 29,468 13,589 50,164 25,199 28,548 33,372 14,665 57,921 29,116 27,764 39,069 17,034 69,124 43,563 30,458 48,987 19,756 74,079 47,112 32,283 52,071 21,306 79,871 50,671 34,868 56,522 23,288 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................... Other Federal enterprises................................................. Local government passenger tra n s it.............................. Other State and local enterprises................................... Noncomparable im p o rts.................................................... 0 1,625 1,458 9,708 0 0 3,247 1,837 13,636 0 0 4,503 2,147 16,322 0 0 4,893 2,685 17,894 0 0 4,904 2,941 17,599 0 0 6,446 4,033 21,663 0 0 6,913 4,352 23,284 0 0 7,593 4,696 25,435 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. 0 0 0 Scrap, used and secondhand g o o d s.............................. 0 0 New construction industry................................................. 150,084 197,553 193,580 199,579 213,343 0 0 0 0 Government industry........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rest-of-world industry......................................................... 7,325 6,824 6,399 Private households.............................................................. 12,647 10,092 0 0 0 0 0 Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................... 0 278,776 0 0 4,846 0 0 291,869 0 0 5,152 0 0 301,616 0 0 5,580 0 120 Table D-2. Wage and salary employment by industry, selected years, 1959-84, and projected 1995 (Thousands of jobs) 1959 1969 1977 1979 1984 1995 LOW 1995 Moderate 1995 High Total1 ......................................................................................... 49,973 62,513 71,438 77,971 82,593 92,118 96,838 101,031 1. Dairy and poultry products.................................................. 2. Meat animals and livestock................................................ 3. C otto n ....................................................................................... 4. Food and feed g rains........................................................... 5. Other agricultural products................................................. 392 247 143 243 363 217 202 46 170 299 183 206 27 217 405 172 202 22 224 443 159 201 19 257 491 126 169 10 213 483 130 172 12 215 492 132 177 14 219 497 6. Forestry and fishery p roducts............................................ 7. Agricultural, forestry, fishery services............................... 8. Iron and ferroalloy ores m ining.......................................... 9. Copper ore m in in g ................................................................ 10. Nonferrous metal ores mining except copper............... 31 149 33 23 28 33 206 30 34 25 38 255 25 34 32 39 300 31 33 37 41 323 17 16 22 47 309 12 12 15 50 330 13 14 17 55 343 15 16 18 11. Coal m in in g ............................................................................ 12. Crude petroleum and gas, except d rillin g ...................... 13. Stone and clay mining and quarrying.............................. 14. Chemical and fertilizer mineral m in in g ............................ 15. Maintenance and repair construction.............................. 198 186 101 19 870 135 146 97 18 259 198 99 25 1,339 197 263 88 868 225 170 93 23 1,114 21 1,246 181 249 85 18 1,373 185 263 89 20 1,404 188 276 94 22 1,430 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. O rdnance................................................................................ Guided missiles and space veh icle s ............................... Meat products........................................................................ Dairy products........................................................................ Canned and frozen fo o d s .................................................. 50 94 317 317 246 175 107 336 249 288 69 352 187 300 73 81 358 180 315 95 120 357 163 286 105 143 316 121 258 111 152 328 126 272 117 158 335 132 281 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Grain mill products............................................................... Bakery products................................................................... Sugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products....................................................... Alcoholic beverages............................................................. 134 301 38 78 104 133 278 36 87 95 142 236 34 77 84 144 231 31 80 85 130 211 25 76 71 119 176 18 61 51 124 181 19 57 130 188 20 71 64 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Soft drinks and flavorings.................................................. Other food products............................................................. Tobacco m anufacturing....................................................... Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ............................................ Floor covering m ills.............................................................. 111 143 95 615 38 142 147 83 613 57 144 155 71 546 60 153 157 70 528 61 144 155 65 434 53 127 135 54 336 41 134 143 56 354 43 139 150 58 373 45 31. Other textile mill products.................................................. 32. Hosiery and knit g o o d s ...................................................... 33. A p parel................................................................................... 34. Other fabricated textile products....................................... 35. Logging................................................................................... 74 220 1,089 137 94 81 251 1,235 174 78 71 233 1,136 180 84 70 227 1,115 189 89 55 204 1,012 184 89 44 160 765 166 73 46 168 808 174 78 49 177 840 185 83 36. Sawmills and planing m ills ................................................. 37. Other millwork, plywood, and wood products............... 38. Wooden containers.............................................................. 39. Household furniture.............................................................. 40. Furniture and fixtures, except household........................ 305 237 43 259 107 230 292 36 316 145 228 332 21 315 149 237 365 19 329 169 203 346 14 295 192 183 348 303 230 8 190 365 9 321 242 195 377 10 332 253 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. Paper products...................................................................... Paperboard............................................................................. Newspaper printing and publishing.................................. Periodical, book printing and publishing......................... Other printing and publishing ............................................ 413 174 318 156 414 482 230 368 210 516 483 209 396 217 529 493 214 420 230 585 485 196 441 274 658 455 172 489 296 756 480 183 508 313 785 498 190 525 325 815 46. Industrial inorganic and organic chem icals.................... 47. Agricultural chem icals.......................................................... 48. Other chemical products.................................................... 49. Plastic materials and synthetic ru bb e r............................ 50. Synthetic fib e rs..................................................................... 259 53 81 81 79 295 64 123 108 132 321 327 70 99 100 112 299 61 99 88 88 287 59 95 79 74 305 61 101 83 79 321 63 104 51. D ru g s ....................................................................................... 52. Cleaning and toilet preparations...................................... 53. Paints and allied products.................................................. 54. Petroleum refining and related products......................... 55. Tires and inner tubes........................................................... 105 89 62 216 105 143 123 72 182 119 181 130 192 139 69 210 127 206 145 62 189 94 233 153 54 168 82 243 160 57 175 253 165 60 181 92 Industry See footnotes at end of table. 121 66 68 94 98 117 66 202 130 66 86 86 82 Table D-2. Wage and salary employment by industry, selected years, 1959-84, and projected 1995— Continued (Thousands of jobs) Industry 1959 1969 1977 1979 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. Rubber products except tires and tu b e s ........................ Plastic products..................................................................... Leather tanning and industrial leather............................. Leather products including fo o tw e a r............................... G la ss........................................................................................ 177 91 36 338 152 160 317 29 314 185 161 423 23 232 199 166 488 20 226 199 148 539 17 176 164 126 666 11 117 158 132 707 13 127 167 137 748 13 135 172 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. Cement and concrete products......................................... Structural clay products....................................................... Pottery and related products............................................. Other stone and clay products.......................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products......................... 203 78 48 123 587 223 64 45 139 644 228 50 46 146 554 249 52 48 162 571 224 38 39 130 334 232 26 37 139 235 242 30 38 144 261 249 33 40 151 325 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s............................. Primary copper and copper products.............................. Primary aluminum and aluminum products.................... Primary nonferrous metals and products........................ Metal containers................................................................... 268 137 111 78 75 312 160 153 92 87 302 147 150 82 78 323 161 170 91 80 209 133 147 76 58 181 127 150 66 48 193 133 157 70 52 204 140 162 74 55 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtu re s....................... Fabricated structural metal products............................... Screw machine products..................................................... Metal stam pings................................................................... Cutlery, handtools, general hardware.............................. 71 333 87 188 135 76 432 113 254 165 69 474 101 238 175 76 523 116 244 184 63 437 96 209 148 57 490 101 223 155 60 514 108 232 162 62 530 112 240 168 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. Other fabricated metal products....................................... Engines, turbines, and generators.................................... Farm m achinery..................................................................... Construction, mining, oilfield machinery.......................... Material handling equipm ent.............................................. 225 90 126 162 64 306 112 140 202 94 336 125 167 257 93 370 145 182 276 106 336 115 110 178 79 372 116 128 206 113 394 124 136 216 118 413 130 144 226 122 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. Metalworking m achinery...................................................... Special industry m achinery................................................ General industrial m achinery............................................. Other nonelectrical machinery........................................... Computers and peripheral equipm ent............................. 245 164 221 145 111 341 206 291 224 224 325 190 295 241 262 369 205 329 286 339 306 168 273 271 478 348 186 308 305 679 367 197 325 322 713 382 204 336 331 741 86. Typewriters and other office equipm ent......................... 87. Service industry m achines................................................. 88. Electric transmission equipm ent....................................... 89. Electrical industrial apparatus............................................ 90. Household appliances......................................................... 27 97 157 176 157 52 147 207 223 187 49 171 190 233 180 58 188 221 251 178 48 171 224 206 150 41 186 221 229 146 43 194 231 241 150 46 201 238 250 155 91. Electric lighting and w irin g ................................................. 92. Radio and television receiving s e ts ................................. 93. Telephone and telegraph apparatus............................... 94. Radio and communication equipm ent............................. 95. Electronic com ponents........................................................ 134 113 105 252 213 205 155 146 409 394 205 123 147 315 405 225 115 165 357 525 201 91 144 472 673 213 81 176 584 802 223 85 180 607 846 234 89 184 622 877 96. Other electrical machinery and equipm ent..................... 97. Motor v eh icle s....................................................................... 98. A irc ra ft..................................................................................... 99. Ship and boat building and repair.................................... 100. Railroad equipm ent............................................................. 106 692 721 146 41 122 911 804 189 51 151 947 500 224 56 174 990 632 226 74 156 860 631 194 35 178 793 680 209 35 186 826 714 220 36 197 859 737 231 38 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a rts ...................................... Other transportation equipm ent........................................ Scientific and controlling instrum ents............................. Medical and dental instrum ents....................................... Optical and ophthalmic equipm ent................................. 9 22 165 45 82 13 88 194 82 71 18 107 190 128 68 20 103 213 144 77 15 86 222 172 75 14 97 286 223 70 16 104 302 234 75 19 112 314 244 78 106. Photographic equipment and sup p lie s........................... 107. Watches and clo cks............................................................ 108. Jewelry and silverw are....................................................... 109. Musical instruments and sporting goods........................ 110. Other manufactured products........................................... 68 29 67 116 205 111 35 78 149 214 130 30 93 145 200 134 28 92 145 208 124 15 78 128 179 129 13 73 130 160 135 14 78 137 166 142 16 81 143 172 See footnotes at end of table. 122 Table D-2. Wage and salary employment by industry, selected years, 1959-84, and projected 1995— Continued (Thousands of jobs) Industry 1959 1969 1977 1979 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. Railroad transportation ...................................................... Local transit and intercity buses ..................................... Truck transportation ............................................................ Water transportation ........................................................... Air transportation................................................................. 929 281 848 238 179 650 281 1,086 231 353 550 261 1,222 196 386 559 263 1,339 216 438 378 269 1,324 199 493 272 262 1,487 198 552 283 267 1,571 206 574 298 274 1,639 215 602 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. Pipeline transportation....................................................... Transportation services..................................................... Radio and television broadcasting.................................. Communications except radio and television............... Electric utilities, public and private.................................. 24 63 89 748 430 18 105 131 918 460 19 147 169 1,017 550 20 186 188 1,121 608 19 247 232 1,111 702 20 343 272 1,224 784 20 362 284 1,291 827 22 378 297 1,349 863 121. Gas utilities, excluding public............................................ 122. Water and sanitary services, except p u b lic .................. 123. Wholesale tra d e ................................................................... 124. Eating and drinking places................................................ 125. Retail trade, except eating and drinking ....................... 215 43 3,082 1,603 6,460 220 68 3,907 2,466 8,354 212 84 4,708 3,949 9,888 220 92 5,204 4,513 10,517 222 108 5,550 5,403 11,236 214 115 6,248 6,363 12,213 225 121 6,578 6,659 12,890 235 129 6,866 6,961 13,475 126. 127. 128. 129. 130. B anking.................................................................................. Credit agencies and financial brokers............................ Insurance............................................................................... Owner-occupied real e sta te .............................................. Real e sta te ............................................................................ 640 369 1,028 0 577 983 632 1,276 0 685 1,357 755 1,513 0 901 1,498 869 1,630 0 1,046 1,676 1,178 1,753 0 1,123 1,776 1,453 1,942 0 1,231 1,865 1,531 2,056 0 1,288 1,946 1,596 2,146 0 1,343 131. 132. 133. 134. 135. Hotels and lodging places................................................. Personal and repair services............................................ Barber and beauty s ho p s .................................................. Miscellaneous business services .................................... Advertising............................................................................. 547 775 219 679 106 753 840 335 1,528 121 1,137 778 304 2,382 131 1,261 810 319 2,914 146 1,539 928 348 4,059 183 1,832 1,103 406 6,153 221 1,955 1,160 430 6,469 227 2,057 1,208 452 6,726 235 136. 137. 138. 139. 140. Miscellaneous professional services .............................. Automobile re p a ir................................................................ Motion pictures.................................................................... Amusements and recreation services............................ Doctors’ and dentists’ services....................................... 412 245 195 322 292 710 366 207 445 521 1,083 498 214 666 966 1,302 575 228 712 1,082 1,697 683 220 801 1,396 2,511 814 235 1,009 1,910 2,638 864 243 1,056 1,972 2,755 903 254 1,099 2,056 141. 142. 143. 144. 145. H ospitals................................................................................ Medical services, except hospitals................................. Educational services (private)........................................... Nonprofit organizations...................................................... Post O ffice............................................................................. 967 214 716 1,311 574 1,770 592 1,113 1,751 732 2,465 1,168 1,409 1,918 654 2,608 1,323 1,580 2,038 661 2,994 1,751 1,748 2,127 703 3,068 2,667 1,853 2,308 640 3,253 2,824 1,964 2,394 677 3,396 2,958 2,044 2,506 721 146. 147. 148. 149. 150. Commodity Credit Corporation ......................................... Other Federal enterprises................................................. Local government passenger tra n s it.............................. Other State and local enterprises................................... Noncomparable imports .................................................... 0 104 71 225 0 0 152 87 351 0 0 147 123 496 0 0 155 130 541 0 0 123 174 485 0 0 133 202 509 0 0 140 209 536 0 0 145 219 568 0 151. 152. 153. 154. 155. 156. Scrap, used and secondhand go o d s.............................. New construction industry................................................. Government industry........................................................... Rest-of-world industry......................................................... Private households.............................................................. Inventory valuation adjustm ent......................................... 0 2,234 0 0 2,228 0 0 2,791 0 0 1,826 0 0 2,886 0 0 1,395 0 0 3,330 0 0 1,264 0 0 3,399 0 0 1,238 0 0 3,627 0 0 978 0 0 3,821 0 0 1,019 0 0 3,963 0 0 1,056 0 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. 1 Excludes general government. 123 Table E-1. Wage and salary employment by detailed industry, 1984 and projected 19951 (Employment in thousands) 1995 Low 1995 Moderate Industry SIC code Total, all industries........................................................................ - Agriculture, forestry, and fish in g .............................................. 1,573 1,538 1,593 M in in g ............................................................................................. Metal m ining................................................................................ Coal mining ................................................................................. Oil and gas extraction............................................................... Crude petroleum and natural gas liquids............................ Oil and gas field service s....................................................... Nonmetallic mining and quarrying.......................................... 10 11, 12 13 131, 2 138 14 975 56 197 613 263 350 109 926 40 181 603 249 354 103 Construction.................................................................................. General contractors and operative b u ild e rs........................ Residential building construction .......................................... Operative builders..................................................................... Nonresidential building construction.................................... General contractors, except building.................................... Highway and street construction.......................................... Heavy construction, except highway and s tre e t............... Special trade contractors......................................................... Plumbing, heating, and air-conditioning.............................. Painting, paper hanging, and decorating............................ Electrical w o rk ........................................................................... Masonry, stonework, tile setting, and plastering .............. Carpentering and flo o rin g ....................................................... Roofing and sheet-metal w o rk .............................................. Concrete w o rk ........................................................................... All other special trade contractors....................................... _ 15 152 153 154 16 161 162 17 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178, 9 4,345 1,158 577 59 521 765 245 520 2,422 561 153 447 378 142 183 142 416 M anufacturing............................................................................... Durable goods m anufacturing................................................. Lumber and wood products................................................... Logging camps and logging contractors........................... Sawmills and planing m ills ................................................... Millwork, plywood, and structural wood m em bers.......... Wood buildings and mobile hom es.................................... All other wood p rod u cts........................................................ Furniture and fixtures............................................................... Household furniture................................................................ Office fu rn itu re ......................................................................... Partitions and office and store fixtures.............................. All other furniture and fixtu re s............................................. Stone, clay, glass, and concrete products......................... Glass and glassware, pressed or blown ........................... Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products........................... All other stone, clay, glass, and concrete products....... Primary metal industries.......................................................... Blast furnaces and basic steel products........................... Iron and steel foundries......................................................... Nonferrous rolling and draw ing............................................ Nonferrous foundries (castings)........................................... All other primary metal industries........................................ Fabricated metal products..................................................... Metal cans and shipping containers.................................. Cutlery, handtools, and hardware........................................ Heating equipment and plumbing fixtures......................... Fabricated structural metal p roducts................................. Screw machine products and bolts, nuts, and washers Metal forgings and stam pings.............................................. Coating, engraving, and allied services............................. Ordnance and accessories, n e c .......................................... Miscellaneous fabricated metal products.......................... Machinery, except electrical.................................................. Engines and tu rb in e s............................................................. Farm and garden machinery and equipm ent................... Construction and related machinery and equipm ent..... Metalworking machinery and equipm ent........................... Special industry machinery except m etalworking............ General industrial machinery and equipm ent.................. Office, computing, and accounting m achines.................. Refrigeration and service industry machinery.................. Miscellaneous machinery, except electrical..................... 24-25, 32-39 24 241 242 243 245 244, 9 25 251 252 254 253, 9 32 322 327 321, 3-6, 8-9 33 331 332 335 336 333, 4, 9 34 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 35 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 19,412 11,522 707 89 203 220 74 120 487 295 64 67 62 595 99 199 297 858 333 149 193 87 96 1,464 58 148 63 437 96 250 107 76 229 2,197 114 110 257 306 168 273 526 171 271 1984 . 124 Percent change 1984-95 Low Moderate High 10.8 15.9 20.6 1,632 -2.2 1.3 3.7 971 45 185 632 263 370 109 1,011 50 188 657 276 381 116 -5.0 -28.9 -8.5 -1.6 -5.3 1.1 -6.6 -.4 -19.9 -6.5 3.2 -.1 5.7 .4 3.7 -10.8 -4.7 7.2 4.7 9.1 6.6 4,704 1,228 545 57 625 820 237 582 2,657 622 153 499 389 152 199 155 488 4,916 1,283 570 60 653 857 248 608 2,777 650 160 522 406 158 208 162 510 5,074 1,324 588 62 674 884 266 628 2,866 671 165 539 419 164 215 168 526 8.3 6.1 -5.6 -2.9 20.0 7.2 -3.1 12.1 9.7 10.7 .1 11.8 2.7 6.6 9.0 9.1 17.3 13.2 10.8 -1.3 1.5 25.4 12.0 1.3 17.1 14.6 15.7 4.6 16.8 7.4 11.4 13.9 14.0 22.6 16.8 14.4 1.8 4.7 29.4 15.6 4.6 20.9 18.3 19.5 8.0 20.6 10.6 15.0 17.6 17.7 26.5 19,678 12,360 685 73 183 232 76 122 533 303 76 84 70 593 89 214 290 719 235 121 183 85 96 1,568 48 155 57 490 101 263 124 81 248 2,617 116 128 319 348 186 308 720 186 305 20,692 12,996 725 78 190 246 85 126 563 321 80 89 73 621 94 223 304 771 261 128 192 89 100 1,650 52 162 60 514 108 275 131 86 262 2,755 124 136 334 367 197 325 756 194 322 21,594 13,568 767 83 195 252 96 131 585 332 83 93 77 645 97 229 320 858 325 135 202 93 103 1,718 55 168 62 530 112 287 138 91 276 2,863 130 144 348 382 204 336 787 201 331 1.4 7.3 -3.1 -18.3 -10.0 5.3 1.9 1.6 9.3 2.6 18.2 27.0 13.5 -.4 -10.6 f.1 -2.1 -16.2 -29.7 -19.0 -5.0 -1.9 -.3 7.1 -16.3 4.2 -9.8 12.3 4.6 5.3 16.0 7.2 8.5 19.1 1.7 16.3 23.8 13.9 11.2 12.8 36.8 8.7 12.5 6.6 12.6 2.6 -12.5 -6.6 11.6 14.7 5.2 15.4 6.7 24.2 33.5 19.3 4.3 -5.9 11.9 2.6 -10.2 -21.7 -14.1 -.2 3.2 3.5 12.7 -10.1 9.4 -4.8 17.7 11.7 9.8 22.6 13.3 14.6 25.4 8.0 23.2 30.0 20.1 17.7 18.8 43.6 13.6 18.9 11.2 17.8 7.1 -7.5 -4.2 14.3 30.1 9.7 20.1 12.5 30.0 39.6 24.8 8.4 -2.8 15.0 7.7 -.1 -2.7 -9.5 5.0 7.5 6.5 17.3 -4.8 13.2 -2.4 21.5 96,957 107,396 112,360 116,905 See footnotes at end of table. 1995 High 16.6 14.6 26.8 19.4 20.4 30.3 13.7 30.8 35.3 24.9 21.5 22.9 49.5 17.7 22.2 Table E-1. Wage and salary employment by detailed industry, 1984 and projected 19951— Continued (Employment in thousands) Industry SIC code Electrical and electronic machinery and equipm ent......... Electric transmission and distribution equipm ent............ Electrical industrial apparatus.............................................. Household appliances............................................................ Electric lighting and wiring equipm ent............................... Radio and television receiving equipm ent......................... Communication equipm ent................................................... Electronic components and accessories........................... Miscellaneous electrical equipment and supplies........... Transportation equipm ent...................................................... Motor vehicles and equipm ent............................................. Aircraft and p a rts .................................................................... Ship and boat building and repairing................................. Guided missiles and space vehicles and p a rts ............... All other transportation equipm ent..................................... Professional and scientific instrum ents............................... Engineering and scientific instrum ents.............................. Measuring and controlling instrum ents.............................. Medical and dental instruments and supplies................. Photographic equipment and supplies............................... All other professional and scientific instrum ents............. Miscellaneous manufacturing industries ............................. Jewelry, silverware, and plated w a re ................................. Toys and sporting go o d s...................................................... All other miscellaneous manufacturing industries........... Nondurable goods m anufacturing.......................................... Food and kindred products ................................................... Meat products......................................................................... Dairy products.......................................................................... Preserved fruits and vegetables.......................................... Grain mill products ................................................................. Bakery products...................................................................... Sugar and confectionery products ................................. Beverages................................................................................. All other food and kindred products.................................. Tobacco m anufactures............................................................ Textile mill products................................................................. Weaving mills, c o tto n ............................................................. Weaving mills, man-made fibers.......................................... Knitting m ills ............................................................................. Textile finishing, except wool and knit goods.................. Yarn and thread m ills ............................................................. All other textile mill products ............................................... Apparel and textile products.................................................. Men's and boys’ suits and coats......................................... Men’s and boys’ furnishings ................................................ Women’s and misses’ outerwear ....................................... Women’s and children’s undergarm ents........................... Children’s outerwear .............................................................. Miscellaneous apparel and accessories............................ All other apparel and textile products................................ Paper and allied products...................................................... Paperboard m ills ..................................................................... Converted paper and paperboard products..................... Paperboard containers and boxes ..................................... All other paper and allied products.................................... Printing, publishing, and allied industries............................ Newspapers.............................................................................. Periodicals ................................................................................ Books ........................................................................................ Commercial printing................................................................ Blankbooks and bookbinding............................................... All other printing, publishing and allied products............ Chemicals and allied products.............................................. Industrial inorganic chem icals.............................................. Plastics and synthetic materials and man-made fibers .. D ru g s.......................................................................................... Soap, detergents, cosmetics, and toilet g o o d s ............... Paints and allied products.................................................... Industrial organic chem icals................................................. Agricultural chem icals............................................................ Miscellaneous chemical products....................................... Petroleum refining and related industries........................... 36 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 369 37 371 372 373 376 374, 5, 9 38 381 382 384 386 383, 5, 7 39 391 394 393, 5-6, 9 20-23, 26-31 20 201 202 203 204 205 206 208 207, 9 21 22 221 222 225 226 228 223-4, 7, 9 23 231 232 233 234 236 238 235, 7, 9 26 263 264 265 261, 2, 6 27 271 272 273 275 278 274, 6-7, 9 28 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 289 29 See footnotes at end of table. 125 1984 1995 Low 2,208 116 206 150 200 91 617 673 156 1,906 860 596 194 155 101 714 80 250 172 124 89 384 55 111 218 7,891 1,618 357 163 236 130 211 101 214 205 65 746 119 99 204 68 106 150 1,197 72 338 387 86 64 46 204 681 57 226 196 201 1,372 441 107 102 468 69 186 1,048 143 177 206 145 62 164 61 91 189 2,529 121 229 146 213 81 759 802 178 1,932 793 637 209 187 107 821 88 297 223 129 83 363 48 117 198 7,318 1,382 316 121 208 119 176 79 178 185 54 580 50 100 160 55 100 116 931 39 287 313 51 40 24 178 627 51 241 172 162 1,540 489 123 105 544 74 206 1,034 142 153 233 153 54 156 59 84 168 1995 Moderate 2,648 131 241 150 223 85 787 846 186 2,023 826 670 220 196 110 860 92 310 234 135 89 381 53 123 205 7,695 1,450 328 126 222 124 181 85 191 193 56 612 52 105 168 57 106 123 982 41 302 331 53 42 25 187 663 54 255 183 171 1,606 508 130 111 565 77 214 1,089 152 161 243 160 57 165 61 90 175 1995 High Percent change 1984-95 Low Moderate High 2,746 138 250 155 234 89 807 877 197 2,107 859 692 231 203 122 894 95 319 244 142 95 395 56 128 211 8,026 1,509 335 132 231 130 188 91 203 200 57 644 55 110 177 61 112 129 1,025 43 315 344 56 44 26 198 688 56 264 190 178 1,665 525 135 115 587 80 223 1,133 159 167 253 165 60 173 63 93 181 14.5 4.5 11.3 -2.8 6.3 -10.8 23.1 19.2 14.1 1.3 -7.8 6.8 8.0 20.2 5.3 15.0 10.9 19.1 29.6 4.4 -6.5 -5.5 -13.0 5.7 -9.2 -7.3 -14.6 -11.4 -26.1 -11.9 -8.5 -16.8 -22.1 -17.0 -9.7 -17.5 -22.2 -58.3 .4 -21.7 -19.9 -5.1 -22.3 -22.2 -45.7 -15.1 -19.1 -40.9 -37.6 -48.5 -12.7 -7.9 -10.9 6.7 -12.3 -19.2 12.2 10.9 15.2 2.3 16.3 6.7 10.7 -1.3 -.2 -13.5 13.2 5.3 -12.4 -4.9 -2.6 -7.9 -11.1 19.9 12.5 16.9 .1 11.3 -6.2 27.6 25.7 19.1 6.1 -4.0 12.5 13.4 26.5 9.2 20.4 15.6 24.2 36.0 8.8 -.1 -.9 -4.6 11.4 -6.1 -2.5 -10.4 -8.3 -22.6 -6.1 -5.3 -14.1 -16.2 -11.0 -5.6 -13.8 -18.0 -56.0 5.5 -17.7 -15.6 .1 -17.9 -18.0 -42.7 -10.4 -14.6 -37.6 -34.2 -45.7 -8.4 -2.6 -6.0 12.5 -6.7 -14.7 17.0 15.4 22.0 8.4 20.8 10.8 15.5 3.9 6.2 -8.9 18.4 9.9 -7.0 .7 .4 -1.9 -7.4 24.3 18.8 21.2 3.8 16.7 -1.9 30.8 30.3 26.0 10.5 -.1 16.2 19.1 30.7 21.0 25.1 19.0 27.9 41.7 14.3 6.1 2.8 .6 15.8 -3.2 1.7 -6.8 -6.1 -19.0 -2.1 -.4 -11.2 -10.6 -5.4 -2.5 -12.5 -13.7 -53.5 10.9 -13.4 -10.9 5.6 -13.8 -14.4 -40.4 -6.8 -11.2 -35.1 -31.5 -43.5 -3.0 .9 -2.5 16.8 -3.5 -11.5 21.3 19.1 26.7 12.6 25.5 15.2 19.9 8.1 11.8 -5.3 22.9 13.6 -2.8 5.7 3.9 1.4 -3.9 Table E-1. Wage and salary employment by detailed industry, 1984 and projected 19951— Continued (Employment in thousands) Industry Petroleum refining................................................................... All other petroleum refining and related industries......... Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.................... Tires and inner tu b e s ............................................................. Fabricated rubber products, nec ......................................... All other rubber and miscellaneous plastics products .... Leather and leather products................................................ Footwear, except rubber........................................................ All other leather and leather products............................... Transportation, communications, and utilities...................... Transportation............................................................................. Railroad transportation............................................................ Local and interurban transit................................................... Local and suburban transportation .................................... School buses............................................................................ All other local and interurban transit.................................. Trucking and warehousing..................................................... Trucking, local and long distance and trucking term inals............................................................................. Public warehousing................................................................. U.S. Postal S ervice.................................................................. Water transportation................................................................ Water transportation services.................................... ......... All other water transportation .............................................. Air transportation...................................................................... Certificated air transportation............................................... All other air transportation.................................................... Pipelines, except natural gas ................................................ Transportation services........................................................... Arrangement of transportation............................................. All other transportation .......................................................... Communications and u tilitie s .................................................. Communications........................................................................ Telephone communication ................................................... Radio and television broadcasting..................................... All other communication services.................................... . Utilities and sanitary services................................................ Electric services...................................................................... Gas production and distribution........................................... Combination electric and gas, and other u tilities............ All other utilities and sanitary services.............................. Wholesale and retail trade ........................................................ Wholesale tra d e .......................................................................... Wholesale trade, durable g o o d s........................................... Motor vehicles and auto parts and supplies.................... Furniture and home furnishings........................................... Lumber and other construction m aterials.......................... Sporting, toy, photographic, and hobby goods................ Metals and minerals, except petroleum ............................ Electrical goods ...................................................................... Hardware, plumbing, and heating equipment and supplies .............................................................................. Machinery, equipment, and supplies.................................. Miscellaneous durable goods .............................................. Wholesale trade, nondurable goods.................................... Paper and paper products.................................................... Drugs, proprietaries, and sundries...................................... Apparel, piece goods, and notions .................................... Groceries and related products........................................... Farm-product raw m aterials................................................. Chemicals and allied products............................................. Petroleum and petroleum products.................................... Beer, wine, and distilled alcholic beverages.................... Miscellaneous nondurable g o o d s........................................ Retail tra d e .................................................................................. Building materials, garden supplies, mobile homes ........ Lumber and other building materials dealers .................. Paint, glass, and wallpaper s to re s ..................................... Hardware stores...................................................................... Retail nurseries, lawn and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers...................................................... SIC code 1984 291 295, 9 30 301 306 302-4, 7 31 314 311, 3, 5-7, 9 1995 Moderate 1995 High Percent change 1984-95 Low Moderate High 151 38 782 94 110 577 192 116 76 137 31 874 82 90 701 128 69 58 142 32 924 86 95 744 139 75 64 148 34 976 92 98 786 148 80 68 -9.4 -18.1 11.8 -13.1 -17.6 21.5 -33.5 -40.2 -23.4 -5.6 -14.7 18.3 -9.5 -13.7 28.9 -27.5 -35.4 -15.6 -2.0 -11.5 24.9 -3.1 -10.4 36.2 -23.0 -31.3 -10.4 40-47 40 41 411 415 412-4, 7 42 5,873 3,632 369 269 85 87 97 1,324 6,240 3,773 261 262 82 102 78 1,487 6,562 3,962 272 267 83 105 79 1,571 6,871 4,150 286 274 85 107 81 1,639 6.2 3.9 -29.2 -2.6 -3.8 18.2 -20.0 12.3 11.7 9.1 -26.1 -.5 -1.8 20.6 -18.3 18.6 17.0 14.3 -22.3 1.9 .6 23.6 -16.3 23.8 421, 3 422 43 44 446 441-5 45 451 452, 8 46 47 472 471, 4, 8 48,49 48 481 483 482, 9 49 491 492 493 494-7 1,231 94 703 199 108 92 493 405 88 19 256 173 82 2,242 1,343 954 232 157 899 442 172 200 84 1,401 86 640 198 106 91 552 448 104 20 354 252 102 2,467 1,496 937 272 287 971 516 165 199 90 1,480 91 677 206 111 95 574 465 109 20 373 266 107 2,601 1,575 988 284 303 1,026 547 174 210 95 1,545 95 721 215 116 99 602 488 115 22 390 278 112 2,721 1,646 1,033 297 316 1,076 573 182 220 101 13.8 -8.3 -8.9 -.8 -1.3 -.1 12.0 10.6 18.7 2.4 38.3 45.3 23.4 10.0 11.4 -1.9 17.5 83.3 8.0 16.8 -4.0 -.8 6.9 20.3 -3.1 -3.7 3.6 3.1 4.3 16.5 14.9 23.9 5.5 45.9 53.4 30.1 16.0 17.3 3.5 22.5 93.3 14.1 23.7 .9 4.8 12.8 25.5 1.2 2.6 7.9 7.4 8.6 22.2 20.4 30.5 13.7 52.3 60.1 35.7 21.4 22.6 8.2 28.0 102.0 19.6 29.6 5.4 9.8 19.9 50,51 50 501 502 503 504 505 506 22,134 5,550 3,272 424 125 201 74 137 477 24,820 6,248 3,817 483 139 227 89 158 541 26,122 6,578 4,018 509 147 239 93 166 570 27,296 6,865 4,194 531 153 250 98 173 595 12.1 12.6 16.6 14.0 11.7 12.8 20.6 14.8 13.6 18.0 18.5 22.8 20.1 17.6 18.7 27.0 20.9 19.6 23.3 23.7 28.2 25.3 22.8 23.9 32.5 26.2 24.8 507 508 509 51 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 52-59 52 521 523 525 250 1,393 192 2,277 175 159 183 710 144 131 207 153 415 16,584 658 344 65 155 274 1,712 193 2,431 203 181 176 766 130 146 203 174 452 18,572 718 371 72 172 288 1,803 204 2,559 213 191 186 806 137 154 213 183 476 19,545 758 392 76 182 301 1,881 212 2,671 223 199 194 841 143 160 223 191 497 20,431 792 410 80 190 9.5 22.9 .8 6.7 15.8 13.8 -3.7 7.8 -9.5 11.7 -2.0 13.5 9.0 12.0 9.1 8.1 11.4 11.2 15.3 29.4 6.1 12.4 21.9 19.8 1.3 13.5 -4.6 17.6 3.2 19.5 14.7 17.9 15.1 14.1 17.6 17.4 20.3 35.1 10.8 17.3 27.2 25.0 5.8 18.5 -.4 22.7 7.7 24.8 19.7 23.2 20.4 19.3 22.9 22.7 95 102 108 113 7.8 13.7 18.9 . . 526, 7 See footnotes at end of table. 1995 Low 126 Table E-1. Wage and salary employment by detailed Industry, 1984 and projected 19951— Continued (Employment in thousands) Industry SIC code 1984 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High Percent change 1984-95 Low Moderate High General merchandise s to re s ................................................. Department s to re s .................................................................. Variety s to re s ........................................................................... Miscellaneous general merchandise sto re s ..................... Food stores................................................................................ Grocery s to re s ......................................................................... Meat and fish (seafood) m a rke ts....................................... Retail bakeries......................................................................... All other food s to re s .............................................................. Automotive dealers and gasoline service stations........... Motor vehicle dealers (new and u se d ).............................. Auto and home supply sto res.............................................. Gasoline service stations...................................................... All other automotive de a le rs................................................ Apparel and accessories stores............................................ Men’s and boys' clothing and furnishings sto res............ Women’s ready-to-wear sto re s............................................ Family clothing sto re s ............................................................ Shoe s to re s .............................................................................. All other apparel and accessories stores.......................... Furniture and home furnishings s to re s ............................... Furniture and home furnishings, except appliances...... Household appliance stores................................................. Radio, television, and music s to re s ................................... Eating and drinking p la c e s .................................................... Miscellaneous retail s to re s .................................................... Drug stores and proprietary s to re s .................................... Liquor s to re s ............................................................................ Used merchandise stores..................................................... Miscellaneous shopping goods stores............................... Nonstore retailers................................................................... Fuel and ice d e a le rs .............................................................. Retail stores, n e c .................................................................... 53 531 533 539 54 541 542 546 543-5, 9 55 551 553 554 552, 5-7, 9 56 561 562 565 566 563-4, 8-9 57 571 572 573 58 59 591 592 593 594 596 598 599 2,278 1,925 216 136 2,655 2,318 59 153 126 1,802 796 296 581 129 1,002 114 363 200 208 117 675 391 83 201 5,403 2,111 530 128 72 689 258 105 328 2,509 2,241 166 102 3,045 2,669 65 166 146 1,813 809 323 552 130 1,091 122 396 207 233 133 724 436 67 222 6,363 2,309 561 133 91 826 261 89 348 2,649 2,366 176 107 3,214 2,817 68 175 154 1,913 853 341 582 137 1,151 129 418 218 246 140 764 460 70 234 6,659 2,437 592 141 96 871 276 94 366 2,771 2,475 184 112 3,359 2,945 71 183 161 2,000 892 357 609 142 1,202 134 437 228 257 147 799 481 73 245 6,961 2,547 619 147 100 911 288 99 383 10.2 16.4 -23.0 -25.3 14.7 15.2 10.0 8.4 16.2 .6 1.5 9.3 -5.0 .7 8.8 6.9 8.9 3.5 11.9 13.9 7.3 11.4 -19.7 10.3 17.8 9.4 5.9 3.8 26.3 19.8 1.3 -14.7 5.9 16.3 22.9 -18.8 -21.2 21.0 21.5 16.1 14.4 22.4 6.2 7.1 15.3 .2 6.1 14.8 12.8 15.0 9.0 18.1 20.2 13.2 17.6 -15.2 16.4 23.2 15.4 11.7 9.5 33.3 26.4 6.9 -10.0 11.6 21.7 28.6 -15.1 -17.6 26.5 27.1 21.4 19.6 27.8 11.0 12.0 20.5 4.8 10.7 19.9 17.9 20.2 13.7 23.4 25.6 18.4 23.0 -11.4 21.7 28.8 20.7 16.8 14.5 39.4 32.1 11.7 -5.9 16.6 Finance, insurance, and real e sta te ........................................ B anking........................................................................................ Commercial and stock savings banks................................. Mutual savings b anks.............................................................. All other banking...................................................................... Credit agencies other than ba n ks.......................................... Savings and loan associations.............................................. Personal credit institutions..................................................... Mortgage bankers and brokers............................................. All other credit agencies......................................................... Security and commodity brokers and dealers.................... Insurance carriers...................................................................... Life insurance............................................................................ Accident and hlth insurance, medical service p la n s ........ Fire, marine, and casualty insurance................................... All other insurance carriers.................................................... Insurance agents, brokers, and services............................. Real e sta te .................................................................................. Real estate operators and le sso rs...................................... Real estate agents and m anagers...................................... All other real e sta te ................................................................. Combined real estate, insurance, loan, law offices, and holding and other investment o ffice s .......................... . 60 602 603 601, 4-5 61 612 614 616 611, 3, 5 62 63 631 632 633 635-7, 9 64 65 651 653 654, 5 5,681 1,676 1,520 77 80 698 325 204 102 66 340 1,233 532 153 468 80 519 1,059 491 413 155 6,344 1,775 1,601 87 87 807 365 242 109 91 436 1,392 530 196 569 97 550 1,157 547 440 170 6,679 1,865 1,682 91 92 850 384 255 115 96 459 1,474 561 208 602 103 582 1,210 572 460 178 6,967 1,946 1,755 95 96 886 400 266 120 100 479 1,538 585 217 628 108 608 1,262 596 479 186 11.7 5.9 5.3 13.2 9.7 15.7 12.2 18.3 7.2 38.1 28.4 12.9 -.4 28.2 21.6 21.3 5.9 9.2 11.4 6.4 10.2 17.6 11.2 10.6 18.9 15.3 21.9 18.1 24.8 13.0 45.1 35.3 19.5 5.4 35.7 28.6 28.7 12.1 14.2 16.4 11.3 15.2 22.6 16.1 15.5 24.0 20.2 27.0 23.0 30.2 17.8 51.0 41.0 24.7 10.0 41.6 34.2 34.5 17.0 19.1 21.4 15.9 20.4 156 226 238 249 44.9 52.5 59.3 29,417 1,271 1,024 366 324 73 260 4,187 183 80 165 609 828 474 1,847 35,077 1,419 1,098 306 384 83 325 6,374 221 90 246 894 1,306 1,093 2,525 36,633 1,514 1,157 322 406 88 341 6,695 227 95 258 940 1,375 1,149 2,652 38,148 1,593 1,209 335 427 91 356 6,961 235 99 268 977 1,431 1,195 2,757 19.2 11.7 7.2 -16.5 18.4 13.6 24.7 52.3 20.6 12.7 48.4 46.7 57.7 130.8 36.7 24.5 19.1 12.9 -12.2 25.4 19.5 30.9 59.9 23.7 18.4 55.8 54.3 66.0 142.6 43.6 29.7 25.4 18.0 -8.6 31.7 24.3 36.7 66.3 28.2 23.2 61.9 60.5 72.8 152.3 49.2 Services.......................................................................................... Hotels and other lodging p la ce s ............................................ Personal services...................................................................... Laundry, cleaning, and garment services........................... Beauty sho p s............................................................................. Funeral service and crematories .......................................... All other personal services.................................................... Business services...................................................................... Advertising ................................................................................. Consumer credit reporting and collection agencies......... Mailing, reproduction, commercial art, and stenography . Services to dwellings and other buildings.......................... Personnel supply services..................................................... Computer and data processing services............................ All other business services.................................................... 66,67 - 70 72 721 723 726 722, 4-5, 9 73 731 732 733 734 736 737 735, 9 See footnotes at end of table. 127 Table E-1. Wage and salary employment by detailed industry, 1984 and projected 19951— Continued (Employment in thousands) 1995 Low 1995 Moderate 1995 High Percent change 1984-95 Industry SIC code Automobile repair, services, and garages............................ Automobile rentals and leasing, without d rive rs............... Automobile repair s h o p s ......................................................... All other automobile services and garages........................ Miscellaneous repair services................................................. Electrical repair sho p s............................................................. All other miscellaneous repair services.............................. Motion pictures........................................................................... Motion picture th e a te rs........................................................... All other motion picture production and services............. Amusement and recreation, except motion pictures......... Theatrical producers, bands, and entertainers ................. Bowling alleys and billiard and pool establishments........ Commercial sp o rts ................................................................... All other amusement and recreation services, except motion pictures................................................................. Health services........................................................................... Offices of physicians............................................................... Offices of dentists.................................................................... Offices of other health practitioners.................................... Nursing and personal care facilities.................................... Hospitals2 ................................................................................... Medical and dental laboratories............................................ Outpatient care facilities.......................................................... All other health sevices........................................................... Legal services............................................................................. Educational services3 ................................................................ Social services............................................................................ Individual and family social services................................... Job training and vocational rehabilitation services........... Child day care services........................................................... Residential care ......................................................................... Social services, n e c ................................................................. Museums, art galleries, and z o o s .......................................... Membership organizations ...................................................... Business associations............................................................. Labor unions and similar labor organizations.................... Civic, social, and fraternal associations.............................. Religious organizations............................................................ All other membership organizations.................................... Private households.................................................................... Miscellaneous services............................................................. Engineering, architectural, and surveying services........... Accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services.............. All other miscellaneous services .......................................... 75 751 753 752, 4 76 762 763-4, 9 78 783 781, 2 79 792 793 794 683 139 425 120 315 98 217 220 109 111 801 94 99 79 814 176 530 108 412 124 288 235 100 135 1,009 113 96 85 864 187 562 115 433 131 303 243 103 140 1,056 118 100 89 903 195 587 121 451 136 315 254 108 146 1,099 123 104 92 19.1 27.0 24.7 -9.7 30.8 27.0 32.5 7.0 -8.2 21.8 25.9 20.3 -2.7 7.9 26.4 34.8 32.2 -3.8 37.6 33.7 39.3 10.4 -5.2 25.8 31.8 25.8 1.2 12.2 32.2 40.9 38.2 1.0 43.2 39.1 45.1 15.5 -.9 31.5 37.2 31.0 4.9 16.2 791, 9 80 801 802 804 805 806 807 808 803, 9 81 82 83 832 833 835 836 839 84 86 861 863 864 866 862, 5, 9 88 89 891 893 892, 9 529 7,189 907 426 148 1,145 4,078 113 191 181 650 7,897 1,241 246 192 309 268 227 42 1,501 86 135 328 846 106 1,238 1,158 635 389 134 714 8,656 1,229 516 277 1,609 4,182 126 374 343 999 8,276 1,581 337 254 320 413 258 44 1,535 89 135 338 842 130 978 1,647 915 566 167 748 9,054 1,313 551 290 1,650 4,366 135 390 359 1,049 8,516 1,667 351 269 339 441 268 45 1,590 93 140 350 871 135 1,020 1,729 961 594 174 780 9,470 1,368 574 308 1,729 4,571 141 405 374 1,096 8,794 1,746 369 280 353 464 281 48 1,662 97 147 366 910 142 1,056 1,806 1,003 621 182 35.0 20.4 35.4 21.2 87.0 40.6 2.5 11.3 96.1 89.7 53.7 4.8 27.4 37.2 32.2 3.5 54.2 13.6 4.0 2.2 3.7 .1 3.0 -.5 22.6 -21.0 42.2 43.9 45.4 25.0 41.4 25.9 44.7 29.4 95.8 44.2 7.1 19.3 104.5 98.6 61.5 7.8 34.3 42.9 40.0 9.6 64.5 18.1 7.9 5.9 7.8 3.7 6.7 3.1 27.1 -17.6 49.3 51.2 52.8 29.9 47.4 31.7 50.7 34.8 108.0 51.1 12.1 24.6 112.4 106.9 68.7 11.4 40.7 50.3 45.8 14.2 73.1 23.8 12.9 10.7 13.2 8.4 11.5 7.7 33.1 -14.7 55.9 57.9 59.6 35.9 G overnm ent.................................................................................. Federal G overnm ent................................................................. State government, except education and h ospitals.......... Local government, except education and hospitals.......... . 91 92 93 7,547 2,104 1,784 3,659 8,069 2,160 2,039 3,870 8,193 2,123 2,095 3,975 8,312 2,079 2,151 4,082 6.9 2.7 14.3 5.8 8.6 .9 17.4 8.6 10.1 -1.2 20.6 11.6 1 Industry employment totals presented in this table were used to develop the 1984 and projected 1995 national industry-occupation matrices. 2 Includes State and local hospitals. 128 1984 Low Moderate 3 Includes State and local education. NOTE: Detail may not add to totals because of rounding. Percentages are based on unrounded data. High Appendix Bureau of Labor Statistics input-output sectoring plan Industry sector number and title 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries Dairy and poultry products.................................................... Meat animals and livestock.................................................... Cotton....................................................................................... Food and feed grains ............................................................. Agricultural products, n.e.c..................................................... Forestry and fishery products ............................................... Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services ..................................................................................... Bureau of Economic Analysis Input-Output Sector Standard Industrial Classification (sic) 1972 1.01-1.02 1.03 2.01 2.02 2.03-2.07 3.00 pt. pt. pt. pt. pt. 08 4.00 0254, 07 (except 074), 085, 092 5.00 6.01 101, 106 102 01, pt. 01, pt. 01, pt. 01, pt. 01, pt. (except 02 02 02 02 02 085), 091, 097 11 12 13 14 Mining Iron and ferroalloy ores mining............................................. Copper ore mining................................................................... Nonferrous metal ores mining, except copper....................................................................................... Coal mining............................................................................. Crude petroleum and natural gas.......................................... Stone and clay mining and quarrying................................... Chemical and fertilizer mineral mining................................. 6.02 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 10 (except 101, 102, 106) 11, 12 131, 132 14 (except 147) 147 13 Maintenance and repair construction Maintenance and repair construction..................................... 12.01-12.02 pt. 15, pt. 16, pt. 17 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Manufacturing Ordnance ................................................................................. Complete guided missiles and space vehicles....................... Meat products......................................................................... Dairy products......................................................................... Canned and frozen foods........................................................ Grain mill products ................................................................ Bakery products....................................................................... Sugar........................................................................................ Confectionery products............................................................ Alcoholic beverages................................................................. Soft drinks and flavorings...................................................... Food products, n.e.c................................................................ Tobacco manufacturing .......................................................... Fabric, yam, and thread mills............................................... Floor covering mills................................................................ Textile mill products, n.e.c...................................................... Hosiery and knit goods.......................................................... Apparel.................................................................................... Fabricated textile products, n.e.c............................................ Logging.................................................................................... Sawmills and planing mills..................................................... Millwork, plywood, and wood products, n.e.c...................... Wooden containers.................................................................. Household furniture ................................................................ Furniture and fixtures, except household.............................. Paper products......................................................................... Paperboard containers and boxes .......................................... Newspaper printing and publishing....................................... Periodical and book printing, publishing.............................. 13.02-13.07 13.01 14.01 14.02-14.06 14.07-14.13 14.14-14.17 14.18 14.19 14.20 14.21 14.22-14.23 14.24-14.32 15.01-15.02 16.01-16.04 17.01 17.02-17.10 18.01-18.03 18.04 19.01-19.03 20.01 20.02-20.04 20.05-20.09 21.00 22.01-22.04 23.01-23.07 24.01-24.07 25.00 26.01 26.02-26.04 348, 3795 3761 201 202 203, 2091-2092 204 205 2061-2063 2065-2067 208 (except 2086-2087) 2086-2087 207, 209 (except 2091-2092) 21 221-224, 226, 228 227 229 225 23 (except 239), 39996 239 241 242 243, 2448, 2452, 249 244 (except 2448) 251 25 (except 251) 26 (except 265) 265 271 272-274 Printing and publishing, n.e.c................................................. Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals........................... Agricultural chemicals............................................................. Chemical products, n.e.c.......................................................... Plastic materials and synthetic rubber.................................. Synthetic fibers................................................................. ...... Drugs........................................................................................ Cleaning and toilet preparations Paints and allied products...................................................... Petroleum refining and related products............................... 26.05-26.08 27.01 27.02-27.03 27.04 28.01-28.02 28.03-28.04 29.01 29.02-29.03 30.00 31.01-31.03 275-279 281 (except 28195), 2865, 2869 287 2861, 289 2821-2822 2823-2824 283 284 285 29 Tires and inner tubes............................................................. Rubber products except tires and tubes............................... Plastics products, n.e.c............................................................. Leather tanning and finishing ............................................... Leather products including footwear..................................... Glass ........................................................................................ Cement and concrete products .............................................. Structural clay products ......................................................... Pottery and related products.................................................. Stone and other mineral products, n.e.c................................ 32.01 32.02-32.03, 32.05 32.04 33.00 34.01-34.03 35.01-35.02 36.01, 36.10-36.14 36.02-36.05 36.06-36.09 36.15-36.22 301 302-306 307 311 31 (except 311) 321-323 324, 327 325 326 328, 329 8 9 10 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 129 Bureau of Labor Statistics input-output sectoring plan— Continued Industry sector number and title 65 66 67 Blast furnaces and basic steel products................................. Iron and steel foundries and forgings................................... Primary copper and copper products................................... 68 69 Primary aluminum and aluminum products......................... Primary nonferrous metals and products, 70 71 72 73 Bureau of Economic Analysis Input-Output Sector Standard Industrial Classification (sic) 1972 331 332, 339, 3462 3331, 3351, 3357, 3362 Metal cans and containers ..................................................... Heating equipment and plumbing fixtures............................. Fabricated structural metal products..................................... Screw machine products......................................................... .37.01 37.02-37.04 38.01, 38.07, 38.10, 38.12 38.04, 38.08, 38.11 3802, 38.03, 38.05 38.06, 38.09, 38.13, 38.14 39.01-39.02 40.01-40.03 40.04-40.09 41.01 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 Metal stampings....................................................................... Cutlery, handtools and general hardware.............................. Fabricated metal products, n.e.c............................................. Engines and turbines............................................................... Farm and garden machinery.................................................. Construction, mining and oilfield machinery......................... Materials handling equipment................................................. Metalworking machinery......................................................... Special industry machinery..................................................... General industrial machinery................................................. Nonelectrical machinery, n.e.c................................................. Computers and peripheral equipment ................................... Typewriters and other office machines.................................. Service industry machines...................................................... Electric transmission equipment............................................. Electrical industrial apparatus................................................ Household appliances............................................................... Electric lighting and wiring equipment................................. Radio and television receiving equipment ............................. Telephone and telegraph apparatus....................................... 41.02 42.01-42.03 42.04-42.11 43.01-43.02 44.00 45.01-45.03 46.01-46.04 47.01-47.04 48.01-48.06 49.01-49.07 50.00 51.01 51.03-51.04 52.01-52.05 53.01-53.03 53.04-53.08 54.01-54.07 55.01-55.03 56.01-56.02 56.03 346 (except 3462-3463) 342 347, 349 351 352 3531-3533 353 (except 3531-3533) 354 355 356 359 3573-3574 357 (except 3573 and 3574) 358 361, 3825 362 363 364 365 3661 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 Radio and communication equipment................................... Electronic components and accessories.................................. Electrical machinery and supplies, n.e.c. Motor vehicles......................................................................... Aircraft .................................................................................... Ship and boat building and repair......................................... Railroad equipment................................................................. Motorcycles, bicycles and parts............................................. Transportation equipment, n.e.c.............................................. Scientific and controlling instruments................................... 56.04 57.01-57.03 58.01-58.05 59.01-59.03 60.01-60.04 61.01-61.02 61.03 61.05 61.06-61.07 62.01-62.03 3662 367 369 371 372, 376 (except 3761) 373 374 375 379 (except 3795), 2451 381, 382 (except 3825) 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 Medical and dental instruments and supplies....................... Optical and ophthalmic equipment....................................... Photographic equipment and supplies................................... Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices......................... Jewelry and silverware............................................................ Musical instruments, toys and sporting goods...................... Manufactured products, n.e.c................................................... 62.04-62.06 63.01-63.02 63.03 62.07 64.01 64.02-64.04 64.05-64.12 384 383, 386 387 391, 393, 395, 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 Transportation Railroad transportation............................................................ Local and interurban passenger transit ................................. Trucking and warehousing..................................................... Water transportation................................................................ Air transportation.................................................................... Pipelines, except natural gas.................................................. Transportation services............................................................ 65.01 65.02 65.03 65.04 65.05 65.06 65.07 40, 474, pt. 4789 41 42, pt. 4789 44 45 46 47 (except 474 and pt. 4789) 118 119 Radio and television broadcasting.......................................... Communications, except radio and television....................... 67.00 66.00 483 48 (except 483) 120 121 122 Electric utilities, public and private...................................... Gas utilities, excluding public................................................ Water and sanitary services, excluding public......................................................................................... 68.01, 78.02, 79.02 68.02 491, pt. 493, and public 492, pt. 493 68.03 49 (except 491, 492 and pt. 493) 69.01 74.00 50, 51 58 69.02 52-57, 59, 7396, 8042 3334, 28195, 3353-55, 3361 3332, 333,3339, 334, 3356, 3369, 3463 341 343 344 345 385 3961 394 396 (except 3961), 399 (except 39996) Communications Electric, gas, and sanitary services Trade 123 124 125 Wholesale trade........................................................................ Eating and drinking places..................................................... Retail trade, except eating and drinking places......................................................................................... 130 Bureau of Labor Statistics input-output sectoring plan— Continued Industry sector number and title Finance, insurance, and real estate 126 127 128 129 130 Banking.................................................................................... Credit agencies and financial brokers ................................... Insurance ................................................................................. Owner-occupied real estate..................................................... Real estate................................................................................ 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 Hotels and lodging places...................................................... Personal and repair services.................................................... Beauty and barber shops........................................................ Business services....................................................................... Advertising............................................................................... Professional services, n.e.c....................................................... Automobile repair and services.............................................. Motion pictures........................................................................ Amusements and recreation services...................................... Doctors’ and dentists’ services............................................... Hospitals................................................................................... Medical services, n.e.c.............................................................. Educational services ................................................................ Noncommercial and membership organizations.................... 145 146 147 148 149 U.S. Postal Service.................................................................. Commodity Credit Corporation.............................................. Federal enterprises, n.e.c.......................................................... Local government passenger transit....................................... State and local enterprises, n.e.c............................................. 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 Noncomparable imports.......................................................... Scrap, used and secondhand goods....................................... New construction .................................................................... Government industry.............................................................. Rest of the world industry..................................................... Household industry................................................................. Inventory valuation adjustment.............................................. Bureau of Economic Analysis Input-Output Sector Standard Industrial Classification (sic) 1972 70.01 70.02-70.03 70.04-70.05 71.01 71.02 60 61, 62, 67 63, 64 n.a. 65, 66, pt. 1531 72.01, 77.08 72.02 72.03 73.01 73.02 73.03 75.00 76.01 76.02 77.01 77.02 77.03 77.04, 77.06-77.07 77.05, 77.09 70, 836 72 (except 723, 724), 76 (except 769) 723, 724 73 (except 731, 7396), 769 731 81, 89 (except 892) 75 78 79 801-803, 8041 806 . 074, 8049, 805, 807-809 82, 833, 835 832, 839, 84, 86, 892 78.01 78.03 78.04 79.01 79.03 43 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 80.00 81.00 11.01-11.05 82.00 83.00 84.00 85.00 n.a. n.a. 138, pt. 15, pt. 16, pt. 17 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 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