Publication:
Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
1973-2023
Economic analysis for a general audience
- Economic Letter
- FRBSF Economic Letter
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter
- 1970s
- 1980s
- 1990s
- 2000s
- 2010s
- Global Household Leverage, House Prices, and Consumption
- Inflation: Mind the Gap
- Mortgage Choice and the Pricing of Fixed-Rate and Adjustable-Rate Mortgages
- Hong Kong and China and the Global Recession
- Diagnosing Recessions
- Can Structural Models of Default Explain the Credit Spread Puzzle?
- Okun's Law and the Unemployment Surprise of 2009
- Asia and the Global Financial Crisis : Conference Summary
- What Is China's Capital Seeking in a Global Environment?
- The Outlook for the Economy and Inflation, and the Case for Federal Reserve Independence
- The Housing Drag on Core Inflation
- Extended Unemployment and UI Benefits
- The U.S. and World Economic Geography Before and After the Downturn : Conference Summary
- Is the "Invisible Hand" Still Relevant?
- The Shape of Things to Come
- Loss Provisions and Bank Charge-offs in the Financial Crisis : Lesson Learned
- The "Inflation" in Inflation Targeting
- The Fed's Exit Strategy for Monetary Policy
- Challenges in Economic Capital Modeling
- Fiscal Crises of the States : Causes and Consequences
- Lifecycle Investment Decisions and Labor Income Risk
- Mortgage Prepayments and Changing Underwriting Standards
- Stock-Market-Based Measures of Sectoral Shocks and the Unemployment Rate
- Future Recession Risks
- Financial Market Imperfections and Macroeconomics : Conference Summary
- The Effect of Immigrants on U.S. Employment and Productivity
- Labor Force Participation and the Future Path of Unemployment
- Is the Recent Productivity Boom Over?
- Forecasting Growth over the Next Year with a Business Cycle Index
- Convex Payoffs: Implications for Risk-Taking and Financial Reform
- Underwater Mortgages
- TIPS and the Risk of Deflation
- The Greek Crisis: Argentina Revisited?
- Is Structural Unemployment on the Rise?
- Confidence and the Business Cycle
- The Breadth of Disinflation
- Mortgage-Backed Securities : How Important Is "Skin in the Game"?
- Risky Mortgages and Mortgage Default Premiums
- Consumers and the Economy, Part I : Household Credit and Personal Saving, 2011-01
- Consumers and the Economy, Part II : Household Debt and the Weak U.S. Recovery, 2011-02
- Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of the Fed's Asset Purchases, 2011-03
- Do Initial Claims Overstate Layoffs?, 2011-04
- What Is the New Normal Unemployment Rate?, 2011-05
- Could We Have Learned from the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98?, 2011-06
- Long-Run Impact of the Crisis in Europe : Reforms and Austerity Measures, 2011-07
- Life-Cycle Shocks and Income, 2011-08
- Recent College Graduates and the Labor Market, 2011-09
- Are Large-Scale Asset Purchases Fueling the Rise in Commodity Prices?, 2011-10
- The Fed's Interest Rate Risk, 2011-11
- Has the Treasury Benefited from Issuing TIPS?, 2011-12
- Operation Twist and the Effect of Large-Scale Asset Purchases, 2011-13
- Maintaining Price Stability in a Global Economy, 2011-14
- What Is the Value of Bank Output?, 2011-15
- Household Inflation Expectations and the Price of Oil : It's Déjà Vu All Over Again, 2011-16
- Economics Instruction and the Brave New World of Monetary Policy, 2011-17
- Monetary Policy When One Size Does Not Fit All, 2011-18
- TIPS Liquidity, Breakeven Inflation, and Inflation Expectations, 2011-19
- Stress Testing and Bank Capital Supervision, 2011-20
- Gauging the Impact of the Great Recession, 2011-21
- Securitization and Small Business, 2011-22
- When Will Residential Construction Rebound?, 2011-23
- Does Headline Inflation Converge to Core?, 2011-24
- The U.S. Content of "Made in China", 2011-25
- Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?, 2011-26
- Variable Capital Rules in a Risky World, 2011-27
- Credit Union Mergers: Efficiencies and Benefits, 2011-28
- Cap Rates and Commercial Property Prices, 2011-29
- Recent Layoffs in a Fragile Labor Market, 2011-30
- Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons from the Past Three Years, 2011-31
- Recent Trends in Small Business Lending, 2011-32
- What's in Your Wallet? The Future of Cash, 2011-33
- What Moves the Interest Rate Term Structure?, 2011-34
- Future Recession Risks: An Update, 2011-35
- Signals from Unconventional Monetary Policy, 2011-36
- Asset Price Booms and Current Account Deficits, 2011-37
- Fluctuating Fortunes and Hawaiian House Prices, 2011-38
- Bilateralism, Multilateralism, and Trade Rules, 2012-01
- The Federal Reserve and the Economic Recovery, 2012-02
- Why Is Unemployment Duration So Long?, 2012-03
- Government Spending: An Economic Boost?, 2012-04
- Mortgage Prepayment: An Avenue Foreclosed?, 2012-05
- U.S. and Euro-Area Monetary Policy by Regions, 2012-06
- Do Fed TIPS Purchases Affect Market Liquidity?, 2012-07
- Job Creation Policies and the Great Recession, 2012-08
- Emerging Asia: Two Paths through the Storm, 2012-09
- Why Has Wage Growth Stayed Strong?, 2012-10
- The Slow Recovery: It's Not Just Housing, 2012-11
- Credit: A Starring Role in the Downturn, 2012-12
- Worker Skills and Job Quality, 2012-13
- Commodity Prices and PCE Inflation, 2012-14
- Liquidity Risk and Credit in the Financial Crisis, 2012-15
- Fed Asset Buying and Private Borrowing Rates, 2012-16
- Are U.S. Corporate Bonds Exposed to Europe?, 2012-17
- Structural and Cyclical Economic Factors, 2012-18
- Housing Bubbles and Homeownership Returns, 2012-19
- U.S. Fiscal Policy: Headwind or Tailwind?, 2012-20
- Monetary Policy, Money, and Inflation, 2012-21
- The Outlook and Monetary Policy Challenges, 2012-22
- Pricey Oil, Cheap Natural Gas, and Energy Costs, 2012-23
- Asia's Role in the Post-Crisis Global Economy, 2012-24
- Consumer Debt and the Economic Recovery, 2012-25
- Small Business Loans and Small Bank Health, 2012-26
- Assessing State Business Climate Indexes, 2012-27
- Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation, 2012-28
- The Financial Crisis and Inflation Expectations, 2012-29
- The Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy, 2012-30
- Is China Due for a Slowdown?, 2012-31
- Credit Access Following a Mortgage Default, 2012-32
- Did the Housing Boom Affect Mortgage Choices?, 2012-33
- The Federal Reserve's Unconventional Policies, 2012-34
- Highway Grants: Roads to Prosperity?, 2012-35
- External Shocks and China's Monetary Policy, 2012-36
- Will the Jobless Rate Drop Take a Break?, 2012-37
- Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Uncertainty, 2012-38
- Balance of Payments in the European Periphery, 2013-01
- Monetary Policy in Uncertain Times, 2013-02
- Long-term Unemployment: What Do We Know?, 2013-03
- Aggregate Demand and State-Level Employment, 2013-04
- The Economy and Fed Policy: Follow the Demand, 2013-05
- U.S. Economic Mobility: The Dream and the Data, 2013-06
- What's Driving Medical-Care Spending Growth?, 2013-07
- On the Reliability of Chinese Output Figures, 2013-08
- Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Dollar, 2013-09
- Can Risk Aversion Explain Stock Price Volatility?, 2013-10
- Job Growth and Economic Growth in California, 2013-11
- Commercial Real Estate and Low Interest Rates, 2013-12
- Crises Before and After the Creation of the Fed, 2013-13
- Will Labor Force Participation Bounce Back?, 2013-14
- Economic Outlook: Moving in the Right Direction, 2013-15
- Fiscal Headwinds: Is the Other Shoe About to Drop?, 2013-16
- The Future of Social Security Disability Insurance, 2013-17
- The Economic Recovery: Past, Present, and Future, 2013-18
- What Caused the Decline in Long-term Yields?, 2013-19
- The Path of Wage Growth and Unemployment, 2013-20
- Uncertainty and the Slow Labor Market Recovery, 2013-21
- How Stimulatory Are Large-Scale Asset Purchases?, 2013-22
- The Price of Stock and Bond Risk in Recoveries, 2013-23
- What's Behind the Increase in Part-Time Work?, 2013-24
- The Changing Role of Disabled Children Benefits, 2013-25
- Small Businesses Hit Hard by Weak Job Gains, 2013-26
- Bubbles Tomorrow, Yesterday, but Never Today?, 2013-27
- The Zero Lower Bound and Longer-Term Yields, 2013-28
- Will Unconventional Policy Be the New Normal?, 2013-29
- Gauging the Momentum of the Labor Recovery, 2013-30
- Why Are Housing Inventories Low?, 2013-31
- Implied Rate Correlations and Policy Expectations, 2013-32
- Rebalancing the Economy: A Tale of Two Countries, 2013-33
- Expectations for Monetary Policy Liftoff, 2013-34
- Consumer Inflation Views in Three Countries, 2013-35
- Taxes, Transfers, and State Economic Differences, 2013-36
- Why Do Measures of Inflation Disagree?, 2013-37
- Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis, 2013-38
- Drivers of Mortgage Choices by Risky Borrowers, 2014-01
- Housing, Banking, and the Recovery: The Outlook, 2014-02
- Job Uncertainty and Chinese Household Savings, 2014-03
- When Will the Fed End Its Zero Rate Policy?, 2014-04
- State Hiring Credits and Recent Job Growth, 2014-05
- Fed Tapering News and Emerging Markets, 2014-06
- Private Credit and Public Debt in Financial Crises, 2014-07
- Stress Testing the Fed, 2014-08
- Career Changes Decline during Recessions, 2014-09
- Age Discrimination and the Great Recession, 2014-10
- How Important Are Hedge Funds in a Crisis?, 2014-11
- Interpreting Deviations from Okun's Law, 2014-12
- Is It Still Worth Going to College?, 2014-13
- Financial Market Outlook for Inflation, 2014-14
- The Slowdown in Existing Home Sales, 2014-15
- The Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy: The Road Back to Ordinary, 2014-16
- Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: Happy Marriage or Untenable Union?, 2014-17
- Household Expectations and Monetary Policy, 2014-18
- Will Inflation Remain Low?, 2014-19
- Slow Business Start-ups and the Job Recovery, 2014-20
- Bank Counterparties and Collateral Usage, 2014-21
- The Wage Growth Gap for Recent College Grads, 2014-22
- Long Road to Normal for Bank Business Lending, 2014-23
- Home Currency Issuance in Global Debt Markets, 2014-24
- Fueling Road Spending with Federal Stimulus, 2014-25
- Prospects for Asia and the Global Economy:
 Conference Summary, 2014-26
- Assessing Expectations of Monetary Policy, 2014-27
- How Much Do Medicare Cuts Reduce Inflation?, 2014-28
- Options-Based Expectations of Future Policy Rates, 2014-29
- Has China's Economy Become More "Standard"?, 2014-30
- Navigating toward Normal: The Future for Policy, 2014-31
- Housing Market Headwinds, 2014-32
- Does Slower Growth Imply Lower Interest Rates?, 2014-33
- The Risks to the Inflation Outlook, 2014-34
- Monetary Policy When the Spyglass Is Smudged, 2014-35
- Mixed Signals: Labor Markets and Monetary Policy, 2014-36
- Innovation and Incentives: Evidence from Biotech, 2014-37
- Global Aging: More Headwinds for U.S. Stocks?, 2014-38
- Why Is Wage Growth So Slow?, 2015-01
- Higher Education, Wages, and Polarization, 2015-02
- Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth, 2015-03
- The Recent Rise and Fall of Rapid Productivity Growth, 2015-04
- Animal Spirits and Business Cycles, 2015-05
- Competing for Jobs: Local Taxes and Incentives, 2015-06
- Do Place-Based Policies Matter?, 2015-07
- The View from Here: Outlook and Monetary Policy, 2015-08
- Mortgaging the Future?, 2015-09
- Majority of Hires Never Report Looking for a Job, 2015-10
- Have Long-Term Inflation Expectations Declined?, 2015-11
- Optimal Policy and Market-Based Expectations, 2015-12
- Did Massachusetts Health-Care Reform Affect Prices?, 2015-13
- Is Transition to Inflation Targeting Good for Growth?, 2015-14
- Monetary Policy and the Independence Dilemma, 2015-15
- The Puzzle of Weak First-Quarter GDP Growth, 2015-16
- Looking Forward: The Path for Monetary Policy, 2015-17
- Macroprudential Policy in a Microprudential World, 2015-18
- Involuntary Part-Time Work: Here to Stay?, 2015-19
- Transmission of Asset Purchases: The Role of Reserves, 2015-20
- The Stimulative Effect of Redistribution, 2015-21
- Finding Normal: Natural Rates and Policy Prescriptions, 2015-22
- The Recovery's Final Frontier?, 2015-23
- Assessing the Recent Behavior of Inflation, 2015-24
- Interest Rates and House Prices: Pill or Poison?, 2015-25
- Is China's Growth Miracle Over?, 2015-26
- Residual Seasonality and Monetary Policy, 2015-27
- Measuring Monetary Policy's Effect on House Prices, 2015-28
- Assessing Supervisory Scenarios for Interest Rate Risk, 2015-29
- Can We Rely on Market-Based Inflation Forecasts?, 2015-30
- The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper, 2015-31
- Why So Slow? A Gradual Return for Interest Rates, 2015-32
- Are Wages Useful in Forecasting Price Inflation?, 2015-33
- What's Different about the Latest Housing Boom?, 2015-34
- Global Fallout from China's Industrial Slowdown, 2015-35
- Dancing Days Are Here Again: The Long Road Back to Maximum Employment, 2015-36
- The Effects of Minimum Wages on Employment, 2015-37
- Reducing Poverty via Minimum Wages, Alternatives, 2015-38
- After the First Rate Hike, 2016-01
- Changes in Labor Participation and Household Income, 2016-02
- Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?, 2016-03
- Is There a Case for Inflation Overshooting?, 2016-04
- The Right Profile: Economic Drivers and the Outlook, 2016-05
- Rules of Engagement, 2016-06
- What's Up with Wage Growth?, 2016-07
- Worst-Case Scenarios and Asset Prices, 2016-08
- How Much Does the EMU Benefit Trade?, 2016-09
- Do Local Bond Markets Help Fight Inflation?, 2016-10
- Differing Views on Long-Term Inflation Expectations, 2016-11
- Data Dependence Awakens, 2016-12
- The Elusive Boost from Cheap Oil, 2016-13
- Aggregation in Bank Stress Tests, 2016-14
- Medicare Payment Cuts Continue to Restrain Inflation, 2016-15
- Economic Outlook: Springtime Is on My Mind, 2016-16
- Household Formation among Young Adults, 2016-17
- China's IPO Activity and Equity Market Volatility, 2016-18
- Energy's Impact on Inflation Expectations, 2016-19
- Do Macro Variables Help Forecast Interest Rates?, 2016-20
- Fed Communication and the Zero Lower Bound, 2016-21
- Fed Policy Liftoff and Emerging Markets, 2016-22
- Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World, 2016-23
- Longview: The Economic Outlook, 2016-24
- Projecting the Long-Run Natural Rate of Interest, 2016-25
- Fed Communication: Words and Numbers, 2016-26
- Bubbles, Credit, and Their Consequences, 2016-27
- Slow Credit Recovery and Excess Returns on Capital, 2016-28
- Clearing the Fog: The Effects of Weather on Jobs, 2016-29
- What Is the New Normal for U.S. Growth?, 2016-30
- Consequences of Rising Income Inequality, 2016-31
- Trend Job Growth: Where's Normal?, 2016-32
- Has the Fed Fallen behind the Curve This Year?, 2016-33
- Job-to-Job Transitions in an Evolving Labor Market, 2016-34
- TIPS Liquidity and the Outlook for Inflation, 2016-35
- Why Are Long-Term Interest Rates So Low?, 2016-36
- How Important Is Information from FOMC Minutes?, 2016-37
- How Does Business Dynamism Link to Productivity Growth?, 2017-01
- Looking Back, Looking Ahead, 2017-02
- Do All New Treasuries Trade at a Premium?, 2017-03
- Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth?, 2017-04
- Three Questions on R-star, 2017-05
- Age Discrimination and Hiring of Older Workers, 2017-06
- How Tight Is the U.S. Labor Market?, 2017-07
- Measuring Labor Utilization: The Non-Employment Index, 2017-08
- Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?, 2017-09
- What's in the News? A New Economic Indicator, 2017-10
- Brexit: Whither the Pound?, 2017-11
- Measuring Interest Rate Risk in the Very Long Term, 2017-12
- Preparing for the Next Storm: Reassessing Frameworks and Strategies in a Low R-star World, 2017-13
- Constructing the Home Purchase Sentiment Index, 2017-14
- Reserve Requirements as a Chinese Macro Policy Tool, 2017-15
- R-star, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy, 2017-16
- New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates, 2017-17
- Has the Dollar Become More Sensitive to Interest Rates?, 2017-18
- The Global Growth Slump: Causes and Consequences, 2017-19
- What's Holding Back Business Formation?, 2017-20
- Bridging the Gap: Forecasting Interest Rates with Macro Trends, 2017-21
- Monetary Policy's Role in Fostering Sustainable Growth, 2017-22
- The Natural Rate of Unemployment over the Past 100 Years, 2017-23
- Forecasting China's Role in World Oil Demand, 2017-24
- How Much Has Job Matching Efficiency Declined?, 2017-25
- Disappointing Facts about the Black-White Wage Gap, 2017-26
- Demographic Transition and Low U.S. Interest Rates, 2017-27
- China's Exchange Rate Policies and U.S. Financial Markets, 2017-28
- Interest Rates and the "New Normal", 2017-29
- Has the Wage Phillips Curve Gone Dormant?, 2017-30
- Missing Growth from Creative Destruction, 2017-31
- The Perennial Problem of Predicting Potential, 2017-32
- Stock Market Valuation and the Macroeconomy, 2017-33
- A New Conundrum in the Bond Market?, 2017-34
- What's Down with Inflation?, 2017-35
- Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook: A Fine Balancing Act, 2017-36
- Valuation Ratios for Households and Businesses, 2018-01
- How Do Banks Cope with Loss?, 2018-02
- Expecting the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts, 2018-03
- The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009, 2018-04
- Do Job Market Networks Help Recovery from Mass Layoffs?, 2018-05
- Monetary Policy Cycles and Financial Stability, 2018-06
- Economic Forecasts with the Yield Curve, 2018-07
- Do Adjustment Lags Matter for Inflation-Indexed Bonds?, 2018-08
- Raising the Speed Limit on Future Growth, 2018-09
- Supporting Strong, Steady, and Sustainable Growth, 2018-10
- How Much Consumption Responds to Government Stimulus, 2018-11
- How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices, 2018-12
- The Future Fortunes of R-star: Are They Really Rising?, 2018-13
- Is GDP Overstating Economic Activity?, 2018-14
- Getting from Diversity to Inclusion in Economics, 2018-15
- Do Foreign Funds Matter for Emerging Market Bond Liquidity?, 2018-16
- Can the Income-Expenditure Discrepancy Improve Forecasts?, 2018-17
- Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad, 2018-18
- The Financial Crisis at 10: Will We Ever Recover?, 2018-19
- Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions, 2018-20
- The Prime-Age Workforce and Labor Market Polarization, 2018-21
- How Persistent Are the Effects of Sentiment Shocks?, 2018-22
- The Slope of the Yield Curve and the Near-Term Outlook, 2018-23
- Why Aren't U.S. Workers Working?, 2018-24
- The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections, 2018-25
- Has Inflation Sustainably Reached Target?, 2018-26
- A Review of the Fed's Unconventional Monetary Policy, 2018-27
- Do Opioids Slow Return to Work after Injuries?, 2018-28
- Using Sentiment and Momentum to Predict Stock Returns, 2018-29
- How Much Do We Spend on Imports?, 2019-01
- Does Ultra-Low Unemployment Spur Rapid Wage Growth?, 2019-02
- Nonmanufacturing as an Engine of Growth, 2019-03
- How Much Could Negative Rates Have Helped the Recovery?, 2019-04
- Inflation: Stress-Testing the Phillips Curve, 2019-05
- Measuring Connectedness between the Largest Banks, 2019-06
- Inflationary Effects of Trade Disputes with China, 2019-07
- Modeling Financial Crises, 2019-08
- Climate Change and the Federal Reserve, 2019-09
- Banks' Real Estate Exposure and Resilience, 2019-10
- Does the Fed Know More about the Economy?, 2019-11
- The Evolution of the FOMC's Explicit Inflation Target, 2019-12
- Improving the Phillips Curve with an Interaction Variable, 2019-13
- The Risk of Returning to the Zero Lower Bound, 2019-14
- Is the Hot Economy Pulling New Workers into the Labor Force?, 2019-15
- Why Is the Fed's Balance Sheet Still So Big?, 2019-16
- Is Slow Still the New Normal for GDP Growth?, 2019-17
- How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?, 2019-18
- Why Is Inflation Low Globally?, 2019-19
- The Brexit Price Spike, 2019-20
- Unemployment: Lower for Longer?, 2019-21
- Negative Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in Japan, 2019-22
- A New Balancing Act: Monetary Policy Tradeoffs in a Changing World, 2019-23
- Zero Lower Bound Risk according to Option Prices, 2019-24
- Are Workers Losing to Robots?, 2019-25
- How Severe Is China's Slowdown? Evidence from China CAT, 2019-26
- Yield Curve Responses to Introducing Negative Policy Rates, 2019-27
- Is Rising Concentration Hampering Productivity Growth?, 2019-28
- Riders on the Storm, 2019-29
- Involuntary Part-Time Work a Decade after the Recession, 2019-30
- The Economics of Climate Change: A First Fed Conference, 2019-31
- 2020s
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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
1996-present available from the1973-2023
Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
No Copyright - United States (NoC-US)
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
- lcc: HC101.F47
- ddc: 330.973 F3175Sf
- oclc: 34526016
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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco). San Francisco: Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 1973-2023. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/4960, accessed on October 15, 2024.