Full text of New England Economic Review : August 25, 1919
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Federal Reserve Bank OF BOSTON Business and Money Conditions in the New England District •• prepared by Frederic H. Curti~•• Chairman and Federal Reserve Agent. Thia report ia compiled about the twentieth of each month and i• published for the information of member bank• and otbera who have aa■i1ted in its preparation . BosTON, MASS., August 25, The industrial unrest has overshadowed all other factors in this district during the past month. The interference with transportation facilities, traction and railroad, has placed a burden on all lines of industry which has caused for the most part a general slowing down,largely due, however, thus far to apprehension of the manufacturer rather than through any direct slackening up of business demand. Retail business continues exceptionally good. The banking situation is much improved over the previous month . Savings banks report in all but a few sections increased deposits, and the demand on commercial banks for accommodation, especially from cotton and woolen industries, has fallen off to a considerable extent. Money rates, with a continued demand for Government financing, remain much the same, banks for the most part limiting their commitments for their own customers, preparing themselves for the usual seasonable fall demand. Owing to redemptions of CertifiMoney cates of Indebtedness and lessened reserve requirements, member banks have, during the last few days, reduced their borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bank. Although money has been in more plentiful supply rates have remained extremely firm and have not reflected the extreme conditions prevailing in the New York market. Call money is generally 6 per cent., with time money at 5¼ to 6 per cent. and commercial paper ranging around 5¼ per cent., some at 5¼ per cent. Prime bankers' acceptances 90 days, 4-f'6 endorsed and 4¾ unendorsed. Labor troubles continue to cause Labor great local inconvenience to the people of New England, being largely confined, however, to the transportation field. The strike of railroad shop men and others resulted in a freight embargo which, during its continuance, prevented shipments to and from the mills. From correspondents generally come reports that substantially the only unemployment is that caused by unwillingness to work, the only idleness being due to strikes. The shortage of 1919 skilled workers is everywhere noticeable with the possible exception of the building trades. Employment offices have more requests for workers than can be supplied. Unskilled labor is decidedly short. W The wool market is somewhat quieter 00 I than a month ago. Prices continue extremely firm. Most of the mills have sufficient wool with which to complete prei-ent contracts, but have no surplus supplies. Dealers feel that they are not warranted in buying much wool at the present price level and they are not expected to be purchasers at the London auctions, even should the quality be such as is needed here. Some mills may take advantage of the opportunity to get certain grades of wool. The needs of European mills are so great, however, that it does not seem likely that prices will fall sufficiently to make it profitable to import wool here. This year contracts for fall delivery are still in process of completion and many customers have already placed orders for next season. This has kept mills going at about their normal capacity. Recent offerings of the American Woolen Company for next spring were so small that many buyers got less than 10 per cent. of their usual needs. Uncertainty is again in evidence Cotton among the cotton mills. Some resales of goods have been made at cut prices. Most mills refrain from meeting these cuts as they have plenty of business booked. On the other hand, sales for spot delivery have taken place at much higher prices. Although mills would like to operate night and day, it is impossible to obtain help for this purpvse, owing to the higher wages being earned by employees who do not feel the need of working nights for additional pay. The cotton market continues about the same. Sales of the shorter staples show real declines in price. while long staple has not ceased to advance. Some holders of cotton are now accepting offers which were turned down only a short while ago. An unusually large amount of Dry Goods -dry goods are being sold. Those who earlier sold for fall delivery are finding it very difficult to make these deliveries on time. Manufacturers have in some cases actually demanded and received more than their contract price, due to unexpected wage increases. This has caused considerable advances in the cost to the consumer. On the wh ole, prices may be said to be somewhat more steady, and the larger buyers, although still committing themselves for a lead, are keeping a sharp outlook for indications of a change. The volume of shoe Shoes and Leather sales is only limited by manufacturing capacity, but manufacturers hesitate to make expensive additions to plant owing to the uncertainty of future conditions affecting busim:ss. So much of the present call is for the better grades of shoes that one manufacturer reports that parts of leather left over are being sold to Europe rather than beiflg used in. cheap shoes, which do not have a ready m~rket. An interesting sidelight on the psychology of the current attitude of the public on the high cost of living is furnished by an instance cited of a lot of shcies which were moving slowly being cleaned up at once on the price being r.iised $ 1.00. Leather is not in quite as great demand as a few weeks ago, but while prices have become steadier it is still high, with further increase anticipated. Hides are scarce, with European buyers outbidding Americans in foreign markets. . . Although of good Lumber and Butldmg volume, the demand for lumber at present high prices has fallen off somewhat. During the strike of railroad shopmen stock accumulated to such an extent that some mills shut down temporarily, but with the lifting of the embargo production was resumed. The present outlook is, however, that this winter's cut will be smaller than usual since lumber meo do not want to lake any chance of having high cost material left on their hands. There seems to be plenty of money and materials at high prices available, but with labor costing about I 50 per cent. more than before the .war, the incentive to resume building operations on a comprehensive scale is not keen, though in a few localities there are real building booms with more or less speculation in real estate. Fair weather was favorable for the Crops completion of haying and harvesting of oats and tobacco. Except where the rainfall has been insufficient corn is in excellent condition. Potatoes continue generally in good condition with no complaint of blight. Early peaches are being picked in Connecticut. Worms have done considerable damage in many localities to beans. Other truck and garden crops are in good condition. . Exports from Boston for Foreign Trade the month of July were $3 1,ooo,ooo against S 13,700,000 the previous year. Imports at $27,000,000 showed an increase of only $ 5,2 00,000 over July, 1918. Farmers in this section will Bangor, Me. obtain most satisfactory results from their summer operations, both as to prices of products raised and quan tity. The deposits of the local banks are, it is believed, higher at this time than they have been for many years past, but there is a continual demand for money locally. . Business is • prosperous. Lewi ston, Me, Manufacturers and retailers are having a good business, mills and shoe shops are operati ng at capacity, and there is very little unemployment. The local demand for money is good, there being no surplus of unloaned cash in the banks. The retail merchants report Portland, Me. a large volume of business due to the unusual number of summer visitors in this vicinity, an especially large number being from Canada. Wholesale trade also reports a large volume with satisfactory collections. Labor conditions on the whole are satisfactory and the number of unemployed is small. Local rates for money are 5 and s½ per cent. Manufacturing plants seem Concord, N. H. to be running on full time, with plenty of orders. Stone industries are busy and laborers are well employed. Retail merchants report business good, and there is a very good local demand for money, with the banks keeping their surplus well employed. Industrial conditions are Brattleboro, Vt. quite satisfactory. Manufacturing plants are running to capacity, and there is a good demand for skilled and unskilled labor, with practically no unemployment. Retail trade is good in spite of the high prices. The banks find a good local demand for all loanable fund s, and so far as we know, are buying no commercial paper. The mills report a short. F all River, Mass. age of help and all who care to work can find employment. The retailers report a good trade and people spending money freely. The local money market is well supplied with funds, deposits being well maintained. The paper and textile • Fitchburg, Mass, industries are all extremely busy. Machinery, however, is not so active, but is steadily increasing its business. Apart from the foundries where a st rike is on there is very little unemployment. Money continues in firm demand. . The majority of shoe Haverhill, Mass. manufacturers are supplied with orders to work to full capacity until January 1, 1920. Among the shoe workers there is no noticeable- unemployment. Th ere is unrt:st among labor, and practically for the first time in the history of Haverhill, all labor is organized. There is the usual demand for money, and collections are good. The retailers report that their business has been good, with some falling off at present. Business is good. As New Bedford • Mass. fo r labor, there is still a scarcity in the cotton mills, and in nearly every other industry of any size more help could be used were it available. Money with our banks is in good demand and rates firm at from 5½ per cent. to 6 per cent. The woolen mills are all . Pittsfield, Mass. busy. No one need be out of employment if he desires to work. The retail stores are doing a very good business at high prices. Banks are rather short of funds. . Labor conditions here Sprmgfield, Mass. are in a very unsettled condition. There are some strikes on at the present time, but except for this cause there is practically no unemployment. There appears to be, as usual, ample money to take care of business needs here in the city. Business being done by our manufacturers is good in volume. With retailers there is the usual summer quiet. Practically all plants, Pawtucket, R. I. either in textile or metals, are running to capacity. Their books are crowded with orders. Retail trade is brisk. We have noted a marked increase in the demand for money for manufacturing purposes as well as for building and mortgage loans during the last two months. Money has been generHartford, Conn. ally em ployed. Rates have closely approximated 6 per cent. Outside investment in commercial paper has been greatly restricted. Manufacturing has been prosperous, with increasing orders and at increasing prices, A, JANUARY of Quota Sub1cription1 $1,719,000 1,217,000 786,SOO 29,695 , 000 3, 516,000 s,00 2 ,000 $3,827,000 1,312,000 2,00 2,000 27,3 60,000 4,411,000 4 , 888,000 93 . 39. 109. 80. 102. $41,935,500 $ 43,800,000 96. Quota Subscribed 45 . 1 TO AUGUST No. No. Pcrmit1 !9S 119 110 478 171 290 Brockton Lowell Lynn Mancheste r N,:w Bedford . New Haven Portland Sprin,-fi eld 207 212 l18 71 4 191 ISO 798 Worcester Total Outside Boston, 4,387 Total . Amount 422.142 411.481 166.710 1.601,S26 bl9.b41 1,011.711 480.28! 110.71>4 2.609,7~ 1.111.947 712.117 1. 744. 786 1.919.~14 - -- 741 $15,871 ,052 7.827.987 . 5,130 $23,699,039 Bolton = 1 1918 1919 Lawrence 1920 Per Cent. Maine . . New Hampshire Vermont . Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut Total Buildina& Permits for New Conotruetion ls■aed in the Leading Cities of thi■ Di■triet Fall River Fitc:hbur1 Hartford Sales of Certificate, of lndebtednesa SERIES labor being fully employed where willing to work ; but strikes being troublesome in some quarters. Building is quite active notwithstanding material is high. The tobacco crop looks especially promisin g. There is practically New Britain, Conn. no unrest apparent on the part of labor in this city ; in fact, there is a shortage of labor. The demand for money is greater than for the past two or three years, both for commercial purposes and for building purposes. Manufacturers and retailers are doing a record business, and have been for the past two or three months. Business conditions New Haven, Conn. are excellent, most facto ries bei ng unable to take care of all the business offered. There seems to be little, if any, unemployment. The local money market shows a decided tendency towards stringency, most of the banks being short of money and large borrowers, with very little, if any, outlook for any easing-off. . Woolen and cotton mills Norwich, Conn. are running on full time. One of t he successful sporting arms plants is doi ng a good business, while the largest "munit ion" plant has been closed since J uly first. The money in the banks seems to be very fully loaned up. Aside from men out on strike, the number of unemployed men is small. • Business conditions in a Providence, R. I. general way are good. The st reet car strike which lasted about 18 days and involved the tie-up of all cars operating in the city and State has been settled with an increase of wages from 48 cents to 56 cents an hour. The textile business continues good, especially in woolen lines ; but the machinery business is not showing any special improvement over a previous report. The jewelry business continues excellent, with a scarcity of help. Permit, 79 88 19 2!9 77 lib ';fl 121 11 1 400 91 240 449 % Amount Chanr e 81. 111 196 216.791 71 121.772 16 21 1. 117.162 721.011 - 11 748.001 + ll 47.410 +918 99.IS l 414 411. 717 110 2,482.911 41 211.! S2 2~ 119.0'IO 212 811.881 128 1 ! i $7,927,854 l.082.162 + 100 +rn 2,484 $11 ,010,216 + 115 2,177 107 - - - -- - Boato11 Clearin& Route fiiure1 compare H ClearinC House Baab in the lar,er oitiea in thia cliatriet follows; Repon the fello•iDL o lbe lotal cbariee to tbelr depoth.on' a«oaDII, (la Thooundl of Dollan) 10. •19 Aur. 17, •18 11 $33,200 112,777 11,688 19,217 85, 366 11 $34, 200 4,703 557,693 465,443 121,889 11, 803 21, 304 85,646 68,550 21, 790 69,53 2 21,140 61,392 14,909 350,067 416, 129 300,1 50 Aur. 10. •19 Number of Banks Capital Circulation Loans and Discounts Demand Deposits Due to Banks Time Deposiu Exchanges for Clearing Due from Banks . Cash and Reserve with Federal Reserve Bank, Excess Reserve and Cash, Exchanges for week July 11 $34, 200 '1,7 37 541 , 999 455,909 Un Tbouun.dt or Dollars) Foor Weeki Fou.r Wu.Ju Endinr Aar. 13, •10 July 16. •19 $19, 603 33,832 156,178 20, 471 21,539 34,875 68, 65 8 192,063 90,022 29,17S 65,026 !122,1 68 36,404 157,6-H 19,889 23 ,4 70 35, 156 6S,59S 190,031 73, 757 29, 875 77,270 $731,442 2,023,546 $731,260 2,135,914 , $2,754,988 $2,867,174 Bangor, Me. . Fall River, Mass. Hartford, Conn. Holyoke, Mass. Lowell, Mass. New Bedford, Mass. New Haven, Conn. Providence, R. I. Springfield, Mass. Waterbury, Conn. Worcester, Mass. 4,741 495,295 441,073 117,911 16,556 16,858 82,261 Total outside of Booton Boston Total all Citiea . Eodiae Condition of Forty•two Selected Member Banks ON AUGUST 15, 1919 With Comparative Totals for July 18, 1919, and Augus1 16, 1918 (In Tbou1and1 of Dollan) Tweat y•thrce Aur. 15 1919 $26,312 16,936 15,221 179,240 13,867 168, 568 73,659 12,253 U. S. Bonds and Notes U. S. Certi6cates Loans secured by U. S. obligations, Other loans and investments Reserve F. R. B. Net Demand Deposits Time Deposits Gov. Depo&its Baak ■ July 18 1919 $27,085 12,795 16,750 225, 891 13,532 159, 450 72,401 11,490 Nineteen Banik• ia Bo•ton July 18 Aar. 16 % Chan,. 1919 19 18 in year out1id e of Boeton Aur. 10 1918 $15,811 15,883 8, 168 225,520 12,91S 157,487 69,863 18,281 % Cbanr• Aur. 15 1910 in year + $ 14, 383 38,859 42,683 439,212 57,83S 554,182 33,083 42,924 66. 41 + 6.62 + 86. 34 - 25. 82 + 7. 37 7.03 + 5.43 - 32.91 + $13,307 30, 576 55, 734 566, 650 54,705 562, 181 32,994 21,674 $13,95 2 38,706 31,617 552,670 54,5 21 495,037 27,058 68,662 + 3.08 . 39 . 35 -2 5.8 3 + 6.07 +11 . 94 +22 .26 -S9.96 + + Statement of Condition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Un TboaHndt of Dollul) LIABILITIES RESOURCES Aor. Hi, •19 July 18, •19 ,. ••. 16. •18 Gold Reserve against F. R. Notes, Gold Reserve against Deposits, TotalGold . Legal Tender and Silver Total Reaenu Discounts secured by U. S. Sec., Discounts- Commercial Paper Bankers Acct. bought in open market, U.S. Sec. pledged to secure obligation, Other U. S. Securities owned Total Earninll A11et1 . Uncollected Items Other Resources Total Reaoureea . $87,1 24 72, 202 159,326 8,820 168,146 111,748 8,433 25,184 21,436 553 167,354 70,341 2,284 408,125 $73,910 47,992 121,902 6,531 128,433 130,820 6,910 23,445 21,436 557 183,168 77,329 2,019 390,949 Aor. 15. •19 Jaly 18, •19 Aur. 10. •18 F. R. Notes Net $191,077 $178,961 $112,857 F. R. Bank Notes Net, 21,376 16,668 Due Treasury U. S. , 5,54 2 13,643 9,166 Due Members Net . 108,523 106,635 93,769 38,664 Collection Items, etc., 67,871 61,855 Gro11 Depo1i11, 181,936 182,133 141,599 Capital 6,937 6, 877 6,474 Surplus . 5, 206 5,206 7S All other Liabilities, 1,593 1,104 2, 104 $64,361 73,327 137,688 2,629 140,317 ·42,813 22,168 21 ,61 6 2,362 88,959 53,066 767 283,109 Total Liabilities, 408,125 390,949 283,109 OFFICERS CHARL ES A. MORSS FREDERIC H. CURTISS Go'1Jtrt1or Cltairmat1 and Federal RtJe~ /lgent CHARLES E. SPENCER, Ja. Deputy GO'Wrnor CHESTER C. BULLEN WILLIAM WILLETT Dq,uty Go<u,rnor /IJ1i1tant Casltitri Ca1/ti,r CHARLES F. GETTEMY llufrtant Federal R,11r<t11 llgtt1t FRANK W . CHASE ERNEST M. LEAvrrr L. w ALLACE SWEETSER WILLIAM N. KENYON HARRY A . SAUNDERS