Full text of Business Conditions Digest : December 1975
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ci
This report was prepared In the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman-Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer-Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-7106)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the
list of series and sources at the back of this report.
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Rogers C. B. Morton, Secretary
James L. Pate, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National
Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
Julius Shiskin, Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget
Sidney L. Jones, Department of the Treasury
Burton G. Malkiel, Council of Economic Advisers,
Executive Office of the President
J. Cortland Peret, Federal Reserve Board
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
an ticipa tions and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($13.85 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.35. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Supe
tendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, W,
ington, D.C. 20402.
1MB
New Features and Changes for This Issue
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
DECEMBER 1975
Data Through November
Series ES1 No. 75-12
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
20
23
25
28
30
33
Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
B8
Composite I ndexes
NBER Short List
44
46
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D3
D4
D5
D6
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .
48
49
54
56
58
60
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
I nventories and I nventory I nvestment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
37
39
Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . .
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
61
62
63
65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1, 1980.
66
67
68
PART II. TABLES
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
74
76
77
78
79
81
83
84
84
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D2
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
86
87
DT
Federal Government Activities
89
Price Movements
90
D5
D6
m
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
E3
E4
Wages and Productivity
92
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .
94
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
95
96
97
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
103
103
104
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See September 1975issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See November 1975 issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See April 1975issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series (See October 1975issue)
105
108
109
118
126
eaders are invited to submit comments and
iggestions concerning this publication.
ddress them to Feliks Tamm, Statistical
idicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findhanges in this issue are as follows:
ings of economic
research, newly avail-
1. Appendix C contains historical data for series 1, Dl, 2, 3>
1, 29, 31, *U, D M , ^6, 1*8, 56, 71, 1^5, 7^0, 7^0c, 7kl, 7^1c,
^5, 7^-5c, 7^6, 7^6c, 860, and the new reverse trend adjusted
idex of 12 leading indicators.
2. Recovery comparisons are shown in appendix G for series 19,
^ 1+1, 1+3, 1+7, lllf, X170D, 205, 770, 78lc, and the new composite
idexes of leading and coincident indicators.
able time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
ae January issue of Business Conditions Digest is scheduled for
l
on January 30.
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
ill
6 BEA PROJECTS
for economic
analysis
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzing
economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together approximately 600 economic time series in a form convenient for analysts whether their approach to the study of current business conditions and prospects is the national income modei, the leading indicators, anticipations
and intentions, or a combination of these. Other types of data such as foreign trade,
Federal Government activities, and international series are included to facilitate a
more complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts and tables. Appendixes provide historical data, series
descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. A computer
tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.
DEFENSE INDICATORS A monthly report for analyzing the current and prospective impact of defense activity on the national economy.
This report brings together the principal time series on defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national economy. These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 60 time series included are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense orderproduction-delivery process. Charts and analytical tables facilitate interpretation.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH
A re
P° rt ^
the study of eco
nomic trends over a long span of years, 1860-1970.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive,
long-range view of the U.S. economy. It is a basic research document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together under one cover, in
meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of longterm economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report
is available for purchase.
COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The
source statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by B E A in its analysis
of time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS.—Two variants of the Census computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The X - l l variant is used for adjusting monthly data and
the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
DIFFUSION INDEX PROGRAM.—A computer program for computing diffusion indexes,
cumulated diffusion indexes, and summary measures of the properties of each index.
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
ing current economic developments.
A
monthly report for analyz
This report provides a useful combination of current data for more than 2,500
statistical series and significant articles analyzing economic developments. These
data and analyses include such areas as the national income and product accounts,
the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment expenditures, regional
personal income, and the input-output accounts.
BUSINESS STATISTICS A b ' e n n i a ' reference volume containing
statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,500 time series. The
series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of
compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and
addresses of organizations which provide the basic data for the series.
IV
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT Is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1953 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for
series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or
trading days in each month. As used in
this report, the term "seasonal adjustment"
includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown
here on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the
smoothest series and 6 for the most
erratic. MCD moving averages (that is,
moving averages of the period equal to
MCD) tend to have about the same degree
of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term
moving average of a series with an MCD
of 5 will show its cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER,
aggregate
economic
activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As
a matter of general practice, neither new
reference turning dates nor the shading
for recessions will be entered on the charts
until after both the new reference peak
and the new reference trough bounding
the shaded area have been designated.
This policy is followed because of the
conceptual and empirical difficulties of
designating a current recession and the
practical difficulties of terminating the
shading of a current recession without
including part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories
valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is
provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and serv
ices includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from
the national income and product accounts
are described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for $pending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data
by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP
is also shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
The NBER has also specified a "short list1'
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists
of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this
section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 79 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes
based on leading indicators which have
been grouped by economic process. These
indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so
that its long-run trend parallels that of
the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading, coincident,
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
>v
Nv
Economic
Process
Cyclical
Timing
\^
Ny
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(26 series)
1, EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(13 series)
II, PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
HI
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Job vacancies
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(13 series)
Comprehensive
production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(20 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices ( l series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Ftows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(5 series)
Unit labor costs
(3 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates
(3 series)
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten
the leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these
series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In
some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
-
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these
series reflect processes which are not
direct measures of economic activity but
which do have a significant bearing on
business conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are from the national income and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few of the many available. For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other groups of series are included
in this section. The price movements
series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these measures. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected
segments of the labor force.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic varia-
bles (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
L i t . INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Basic Data
|M«y) (F.b.)
f
T
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" - June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L - l " is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted i y 2 , 2,
or ly-i months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates, latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ( " I " =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according
to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data 1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Pc rcent change
Average
1972
1973
1974
2dQ
1974
3dQ
1974
4th Q
1974
1st Q
1975
2dQ
1975
3dQ
1975
4th Q
to
1st Q
1975
1st Q
to
2dQ
1975
2dQ
to
3dQ
1975
A. N A T I O N A L I N C O M E A N D P R O D U C T
A1.
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.
Gross National Product
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars . .
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. . .
do
1158.0 1291*.9 1 3 9 7 . 1 * 1383.8 l'*16.3 l ' * 3 0 . 9 11*16.6 ll*'*0.9 150l*.i*
792.5 8 3 9 . 2 821.2 827.1 323.1 801*.0 780 .0 783.6 8 0 8 . 6
11*6.1 151*.3 170.2 167.3 172.1 178.0
186.0
183.9
181.6
5,51*1* 6,151* 6,592 6,537 6,677 6,731 6,652 6,753 7,033
3,791* 3,988 3,871* 3,907 3,830 3,782 3,663 3,673 3,780
-1.0
-3.0
2.0
-1.2
-3.1
1.7
0.5
1.3
1.5
0.3
3.2
1.1
l*.l
2.9
91*6.5 1065.6 11U2.5 1130.2 1155.5 1165.1* 1150.7 1175.1* 1227.5
91*1*.9 1055.0 1150.5 1131*.6 1168.2 1186.9 1193.1* 1220.5 1255.2
8 0 2 . 5 903.7 979.7 966.5 993.1 1008.8 1015.5 1078.5 1079.6
620.2 611.1*
5 8 0 . 5 619.6 602.8 603.5 602.9 591*.8 591.0
-1.3
0.5
0.7
-0.6
2.1
2.3
6.2
1*.9
2.8
0.1
-l.l*
220
222
221*
225
200
205
210
215
217
A 2 . National and Personal Income
220.
222.
224.
225.
226.
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars .
Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars . . .
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol.
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
l*.l*
Ann. rate, dol. . .
do
3,81*3
2,779
l*,295
2,91*5
l*,623
2,81*5
l*,565
2,850
t*,6Rl
2,81*2
'*,7i*5
2,798
I* ,7 68
2,775
5,055
2,907
5,01*7
2,858
0.5
-0.8
6.0
l*.8
-0.2
-1.7
226
227
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
729.0
527.3
118.U
78.8
39.7
299.7
310.9
805.2
552.1
130.3
86.9
1*3.1*
338.0
336.9
876.7
539.5
127.5
90.0
37.5
380.2
369.0
869.1
51*2.7
129.5
91.5
38.0
375.8
363.8
901.3
51*7.2
136.1
92.5
1*3.6
389.0
376.2
895.8
528.2
120.7
88.1
32.6
391.7
333.5
913.2
531.5
121*.9
89.6
35.3
398.8
389.5
938.6
539.7
130.6
93.5
37.1
1*10.1
397.9
968.8
51*8.6
138.6
96.3
1*2.3
1*22.7
1*07.5
1.9
0.6
3.5
1.7
8.3
1.8
1.6
2.8
1.5
l*.6
5.1
2.8
2.2
3.2
1.6
6.1
3.0
11*. 0
3.1
2.1*
230
231
232
233
2 3'*
236
237
179.3
116.8
1*1.1
75.7
51*.0
8.5
209.1*
136.8
1*7.0
89.8
57.2
15.1*
209.1*
11*9.2
52.0
97.1
1*6.0
11*.2
211.8
1U9.1*
52.2
97.2
1*8.8
13.5
205. 8
150.9
51.0
99.0
1*6.2
8.7
20 9.1*
151.2
53.7
97.5
'*0.l*
17.8
163.1
11*6.9
52.8
91*.2
35.3
-19.2
l'*8.1
11*2.7
1*9.1
93.6
36.1*
-31.0
179.1
11*3.6
1*9.6
91*.0
1*1.0
-5.5
-22.1
-2.8
-1.7
-3.1*
-12.6
-37.0
-9.2
-2.9
-7.0
-0.6
3.1
-11.8
20.9
0.6
1.0
0,1*
12.6
25.5
21*0
21*1
21*2
21*3
21*1*
21*5
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
-6.0
72.1*
78.1*
3.9
100.1*
96.1*
2.1
11*0.2
138.1
-1.5
138.5
11*0.0
-3.1
11*3.6
11*6.7
1.9
11*7.5
11*5.7
8.8
11*2.2
133.1*
16.2
136.0
119.8
13.0
11*2.7
129.8
6.9
-3.6
-8.1*
7.1*
-k.k
-10.2
-3.2
I*.9
8.3
250
252
253
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
255.7
101*.9
71*.8
150.8
276.1*
106.6
71*.l*
169.8
309.2
116.9
78.7
192O3
301*.1*
111*.3
76.6
190.1
312.3
117.2
78.1*
195.1
323.8
121*.5
81*.0
199.3
331.6
126.5
81*.7
205.1
338.1
128.1*
81*.8
209.7
31*3.5
130.5
86.1
213.0
2.U
1.6
0.8
2.9
2.0
1.5
0.1
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.6
260
262
26'*
266
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
211*.3
7.1
321.0
1.'*
21*0.9
9.1*
366.5
6.0
21*9.2
7.7
1*06.9
~6.5
2U8.5
-1.8
1*02.9
15.1*
259.8
5.7
1*13.2
3.0
21*6.2
18.3
1*18.6
-0.5
252.9
-13.1*
1*33.2
-5.7
261.7
-11*.7
1*1*9.8
-16.3
268.7
-9.2
1*61.3
3.7
2.7
-31.7
3.5
-5.2
3.5
-1.3
3.8
-10.6
2.7
5.5
2.6
20.0
270
271
27'*
275
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
707.1
75.9
25.9
92.2
1*5.6
786.0
96.1
26.1
105.1
52.3
855.8
93.0
26.5
105.6
61.6
81*8.3
89.9
26.3
105.6
60.1
868.2
92.1
26.6
105.8
62.8
877.7
91.6
26.8
103.1*
65.9
375.6
81*. 9
27.0
91*. 3
68.9
885.»*
86.1
27.1
101*.9
71.9
906.6
91*.6
27.1*
123.0
75.9
-0.2
-7.3
0.7
-8.8
l*.6
1.1
l.l*
0.1*
11.2
l*.i*
2.1*
9.9
1.1
17.3
5.6
280
282
281*
286
288
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
173.1*
52.6
211*.1*
71*.1*
207.5
77.0
206.3
71.5
19 6.1*
65.5
202.9
86.5
166.6
75.9
165.0
113.8
188.2
81*. 6
-17.9
-12.3
-1.0
1*9.9
11*. 1
-25.7
290
292
.do.
.do.
.do.
23.3
102.9
-5.1
25.7
110.8
3.5
17.3
119.5
-6.3
17.1
118.6
-1.0
9.9
120.7
0.2
13.1
122.9
-21*.6
27.9
21.5
127.1*
125.2
- 5 6 . 0 -101*.2
36.1*
130.0
-62.8
18.8
1.9
-31.1*
29.8
1.8
-1*8.2
30.5
2.0
'jl.i*
29'*
296
298
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
.do .
.do.
785.1*
7.0
83.7
31*.3
39.1
828.1*
10.8
91*.I*
32.9
1*1*.2
812.5
8.7
91*.0
21*.0
33.6
818.9
8.2
96.5
25.7
32.6
318.1
5.0
91*.1
23.6
38.9
793.1
10.9
89.2
20.1*
33.6
791.8
-11.7
33.8
17.3
26.7
800 .7
-17.1
80.3
17.5
33.7
810.9
-2.3
30.1*
13.1*
39.2
-0.2
-22.6
-6.1
-15.2
-20.5
1.1
-5.1*
-t*.2
1.2
26.2
1.3
11*.8
0.1
10.9
16.3
273
21*6
2'*7
21*8
21*9
.do .
61.0
57.3
56.5
56.3
56.5
57.0
57.1*
53.3
53.9
0.7
1.6
1.0
263
.do.
82.1
87.0
89.5
89.5
39.1*
39.3
90.2
90 .9
91.2
1.0
0.8
0.3
207
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
26.3
12.1*
61*. 6
51*.1
66.3
91*.7
127.6
132.9
116.9
32.9
5.3
-16.0
207
A 3 . Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236.
237.
Total, current dollars
Total, 1958 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current d o l l a r s . . .
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, current dollars
do
do
do
do
i*.l*
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.
Gross private domestic investment, total
Fixed investment, total nonresidential
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures .
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip. .
Fixed investment, residential structures
Change in business inventories, total 2
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
.do.
.do.
.do.
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services2
252. Exports
253. Imports
A 6 . Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
270.
271.
274.
275.
Final sales, durable goods
Change in business inventories, dur. goods2
Final sales, nondurable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods2
do
do
A 7 . Final Sales and Inventories
A8. National Income Components
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj.
Net interest
do
do
do
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
A1O. Real GNP (1958 dollars)
273.
246.
247.
248.
249.
263.
Final sales. 1958 dollars
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars2 . r . . .
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment, residential struc, 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods
and services, 1958 dollars
267. State and local government purchases of
goods and services, 1958 dollars
E1. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 d o l . 2 . . . .
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Average
1st Q
1975
2dQ
1975
3dQ
1975
Sept.
1975
Oct.
1975
Sept.
to
Oct.
1975
Nov.
1975
Oct.
to
Nov.
1975
1st Q
to
2dQ
1975
2dQ
to
3dQ
1975
1973
1974
do .
121*.0
166.1
163. 4
110.1
154.7
171.2
91.5
132.2
153.0
97.0
142.0
160.5
102.4
151.7
172.0
102.5
152.5
174.0
102
102.5
152
153.7
175.?) 178.6
-0.4
0.0
1.1
0.4
0.8
1.5
6.0
7.4
4.9
5.6
6.8
7.2
do .
do .
171. 4
159.3
169.8
190.7
149.7
193.8
148.6
180.6
154.4
174.6
157.0
173.6
158.1
174.4
159.0
172.2
0.7
0.5
0.6
-1.3
-0.7
-6.8
3.9
-3.3
do
do
do
do
do
102.0
120.3
123.2
118.6
118.1
92.8
114.9
133.1
125.0
110.6
82.3
104.0
112.1
116.4
88.9
114.0
115.3
125.2
101.4
88.7
113.9
117.0
12B.0
104.1
89.1
113.5
118.9
129.0
109.9
NA
89.4
84.5
109.3
112.3
119.9
96.4
114.fi
118.3
130.4
NA
0.5
-0.4
1.6
2.4
5.6
NA
1.0
-0.5
1.1
NA
2.7
5.1
0.2
3.0
7.8
5.2
4.3
2.7
4.4
5.2
40.7
40.0
39.0
39.1
39.6
39.8
39.9
39.8
0.3
-0.3
0.3
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.4
B. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S
B7. Composite Indexes
12 leading indicators:3
New index, original trend
New index, reverse trend adjusted. . .
Old index, reverse trend adj. (810) . .
1967=100 .
do .
4 coincident indicators, new index
6 lagging indicators, new index
LEADING INDICATOR
SECTORS
813. Marginal employment adjustments . .
814. Capital investment commitments
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows
.
.
.
.
.
810
813
814
815
816
817
B 1 . Employment and Unemployment
LEADING
INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg.
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
production workers, manufacturing2 .
2. Accession rate, manufacturing2
*5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4) .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 4 ) 2
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT
INDICA
Job Vacancies:
46. Help-wanted advertising
Hours
.do .
Per 100 employ.
3.8
4.8
3.2
4.2
2.4
3.3
2.4
3.6
2.7
4.0
2.8
3.7
2.8
3.6
2.8
3.6
0.0
-0.1
Thousands
Per 100 employ.
240
0.9
349
1.5
548
2.9
500
2.4
434
1.6
451
1.7
433
1.7
384
1.6
4.0
0.0
11.3
0.1
0.5
13.2
0.8
1967=100
126
110
76
76
83
83
83
87
0.0
4.8
0.0
9.2
46
149.50 150.90 146.50 145.44 146.47 147.26 148.23 148.32
76,896 78,413 76,864 76,438 77,004 77,310 77,508 77,549
80,957 82,443 80,821 80,959 81,795 81,872 82,019 81,986
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.7
-0.6
0.2
0.7
0.7
1.0
48
41
42
21
2
TORS
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments .
* 4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) 2
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate (inverted 4 ) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted 4 ) 2
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands
do
4.9
Percent
5.6
8.4
8.9
8.4
8.3
8.6
8.3
-0.3
0.3
-0.5
0.5
43
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.1
0.2
0 .4
-0 .8
0.9
45
do
2.7
3.5
6.0
6.8
do
2.3
2.7
4.8
5.7
5.2
5.3
5.2
4.9
0.1
0.3
-0.9
0.5
40
0.9
1.0
2.0
2.8
3.1
3.1
2.8
3.0
0.3
-0.2
-0.8
-0.3
44
1967=100
1294.9 1397.4 1416.6 1440.9 1504.4
839.2 821.2 780.0 783.6 808.6
125.6 124.8 111.6 110.4 114.2
116.1
116.8
0.4
0.2
1.7
0.5
-1.1
4.4
3.2
3.4
200
205
47
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1055.0 1150.5 1193.4 1220.5 1255.2 1270.9 1279.2 1290.1
247.6 266.2 257.3 257.2 265.4 269.5 271.8 274.4
0.7
0.9
0.9
1.0
2.3
0.0
2.8
3.2
52
53
Bil.dol
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Mil.dol
143.84
1279.6
41,943
33,477
4.9
2.6
3.9
1.9
56
57
54
59
LAGGING
INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (inverted 4 ) 2
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
INDICATORS
Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction .
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, deflated
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
164.10
1383.2
44,815
31,858
161.40
1435.8
46,290
31,015
163.64
1471.9
47,855
31,643
116.6
171.64 173.44 175.26
NA
1509.8
49,710 49,549 50,191 50,705
32,240 32,052 32,256 32,515
1.0
NA
1.3
0.6
1.0
0.8
1.4
2.5
3.4
2.0
111.8
NA
113.9
NA
-1.1
NA
1.9
NA
3.7
8.6
6.4
8.7
12
13
7.2
-2.7
0.5
-2.3
1.9
10
11
24
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING
INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations . . .
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
8. Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment .
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing .
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings
28. New private housing units started, total . . .
*29. New building permits, private housing
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT
INDICA TORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96: Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 . .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5 . . .
6
1967=100 .
Number . .
Bil. dol
1967=100 . . . .
Bil.dol
do . . . .
do . . . .
Mil. sq. feet
floor space . .
Ann. rate, thous
1967=100
Bil. dol., EOP .
do . . . .
117.9 112.4 102.5 106.3 113.1 113.1
27,443 26,584 24,542 26,661 28,990 29,365
41.16
184
12.28
11.13
10.32
44.42
171
13.54
14.22
11.53
36.50
141
11.39
11.46
9.86
39.38
182
12.78
11.08
10.25
42.20
177
12.85
10.8
10.44
42.23
157
11.93
42.39
166
12.15
41.87
148
12.39
0.4
5.7
1.8
-1.2
-10.8
2.0
10.21
10.69
11.05
4.7
3.4
7.9
29.1
12.2
-3.3
4.0
85.73
2,045
157.1
72.90
1,336
91.9
46.87
995
59.4
50.74
1,068
77 .5
48.66
1,258
90.0
50.12
1,269
94.4
54.10
1,457
93.0
41.
1,375
96.3
7.9
14.8
-1.5
-22.4
-5.6
3.5
8.3
7.3
30.5
-4.1
17.8
16.1
9
28
29
109.86 129.94 120.10 116.75 116.36 116.36 114.84 113.98
37.11 49.79 49.08 47.64 45.74
-1.3
-0.7
-2.8
-2.9
-0.3
-4.0
96
97
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Unit
Percent change
Average
Series title
1st Q
1975
2dQ
1975
3dQ
1975
Sept.
1975
1973
1974
99.74
111.92
114.57
112.46 112.16
134.71 152.81
153.03
150.24 149.29 1 4 9 . 2 5
Oct.
1975
Nov.
1975
Oct.
to
Nov.
1975
Sept.
to
Oct.
1975
1st Q
to
2dQ
1975
2dQ
to
3dQ
1975
-1,8
-0 .3
61
-0.6
69
B. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S - C o n .
B3. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
* 6 1 . Business expend., new plant and equip...
69. Machinery and equipment sales and busine
construction expenditures
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
153.40
NA
2.8
NA
-1.8
NA
-11.8
-8.4
25 . 5
24.2
245
31
-3
1
37
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2
* 3 1 . Change, mfg. and trade inven., book value2 .
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value2
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer 2 ©
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries 2 ©
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.2 . .
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
Percent
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Percent
.do.
Bil. dol..
15.4
26.7
14.2
46.6
-19.2
-10.4
-31.0
-18.8
-5.5
5.4
5.1
22.7
NA
17.6
63
55
32
29
30
37
42
38
5
6.4
13.9
1.5
-10.3
-5.4
-2.2
1.9
NA
-11.8
4.9
20
78
83
62
56
56
58
62
60
4
-2
-6
0
26
88
2.41
66
1.67
17
-3.28
24
-1.12
37
-0.13
44
-1.05
45
-1.51
44
-0.87
1
-0.46
-1
0.64
7
2.16
13
0.99
32
25
2 2 4.40 271.05
37.95
46.73
268.45
47.73
263.75 265.09 2 6 5 . 0 9
46.83
47.0 2 4 7 . 0 2
266.98
46.97
NA
NA
0.7
-0.1
NA
NA
-1.8
-1.9
0.5
0.4
71
65
4.1
-4
NA
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
* 7 1 . Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5 . . . .
65. Mfrs.' inven. of finished goods, book value5 .
Bil. dol., EOP . . .
do
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices©
1967=100
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. .
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dollars .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating in
corporate business2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg. 2 .
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars...
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars
173.1
219.0
181.2
181.3
178.4
184.2
181.9
179.8
-1.2
-1.2
0.1
-1.6
23
1941-43=10 . . .
107.43
82.84
78.81
89.07
87.62
84.67
88.57
90 .07
4.6
1.7
13.0
-1.6
19
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
72.9
50.2
85.0
53.1
62.3
35.9
70.3
40.0
82.6
46.5
12 .8
11.4
17.5
16.2
16
18
11.2
5.0
106.1
114.5
79.0
12.1
5.6
116.1
129.0
81.3
9.3
3.8
115.8
109.6
62.5
10.2
4.4
113.6
119.3
67.1
11.5
5.0
115.5
133.3
74.6
116.5
117.6
118.2
0.9
0.5
0 9
0.6
-1.9
8 .9
7.4
1 3
0.6
1.7
11.7
11.2
22
15
17
34
35
125.9
0.9
129.2
154.1
1.9
153.8
168.3
0.3
168.0
170.2
0.2
169.4
172.2
0.6
172.2
173.1
0.7
173.0
174.7
1.2
174.5
175.4
0.4
174.4
0.9
0.5
0.9
0.4
-0.8
-0.1
1.1
-0.1
0.8
1.2
0.4
1.7
55
55
58
Percent .
Cents . .
1967=100
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
!
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities© .
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A2 .
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods© . . .
1967=100....
Percent
1967=100 . . . .
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
.do.
131.1
146.5
157.5
158.8
157.1
0.8
-1.1
63
Dollars . . .
1967=100.
0.879
121.7
0.978
132.5
1.043
145.3
1.034
148.3
1.022
148.8
148.5
148.6
-1.2
0.3
68
62
Ann.rate.percent.
5.98
4.66
0.88
11.14
2.32
2.0 4
do
8.51
6.99
7.52
13.30
6.28
4.77
6.55
8.50
35.51
48.01
21.97
21.00
8.41
20.08
177.64 167.82
9.79
28.11
-22.91
-2.40
95.04
254.4
2.80
373.1
2.94
301.9
2.63
223.3
2.5 9
-1,389 -1,797
-60
84
-123
-136
42
319
6.30
5.87
9.16
6.70
6.65
5.42
5.40
9.61
6.97
6.96
6.16
6.33
9.72
7.09
7.23
6.24
6.38
9.89
7.28
7.44
5.82
6.08
9.54
7.29
7.39
5.22
5 .47
9.48
7.21
7.43
149.3
0.1
0.5
-0.9
2.1
-2.44
12.24
-4.48
14.68
10.26
-8.82
85
4.39
12.75
-0.38
8.36
5.78
-7.02
102
7.39
57.82
5.57
8.59
12.36
MA
9.28
NA
-0.39
9.86
2.77
-4.09
4.97
NA
3.71
NA
5.68
9.02
1.65
2.62
13 0
- 5 .68
5.17
13.51
9.48
11 8
103
33
112
113
110
NA
NA
19.1
0.31
26.0
0.0 4
14
39
-178
-277
-144
207
93
-0.42
-0.30
-0.35
0.01
-0 .05
-0.60
-0.61
-0.06
-0.08
0 .04
-0.88
-0.47
0.45
0.27
0.31
0.74
0.93
0.11
0.12
0.27
119
114
116
115
117
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85. Change in money supply (M1 ) 2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2) 2
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3) 2
33. Change in mortgage debt2
112. Change in business loans2
*113. Change in consumer installment debt 2
110. Total private borrowing
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted4) ® . .
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv. 4 ) 2 5 ,
do
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
Mil. dol
Percent, EOP . . .
191.6
2.27
15.47
9.79
42.30
37.13
-7.75
-21.26
9.70
0.22
107.43 120.08
7.78
4 7.96
2 . P. 0
12.68
205.5 1295.4
2.59
MA
NA - 5 3 0 . 4
NA
NA
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate2 ©
114. Treasury bill r a t e 2 ©
116. Corporate bond y i e l d s 2 ©
115. Treasury bond yields 2 @L
117. Municipal bond y i e l d s 2 ©
Percent . . .
do .
do .
...do .
...do.
8.74
7.03
7.89
6.31
5.19
10.51
7.87
9.42
6.98
6.17
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Average
1973
1974
1st Q
1975
2dQ
1975
3dQ
1975
Sept.
1975
Oct.
1975
Nov.
1975
Sept.
to
Oct.
1975
Oct.
to
Nov.
1975
1st Q
to
2dQ
1975
2dQ
to
3dQ
1975
0.0
-4.4
1.6
-2.6
66
72
-1.66
-1.78
NA
0.24
0.06
NA
109
67
118
419
-5.6
0.6
8.4
-11.2
-119
6.4
-0.6
11.3
9.1
500
502
506
508
512
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit—Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
Interest Rates:
109. Average prime rate charged by banks 2 ©
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 2 ©...
118. Mortgage yields, residential2®
Bil.dol., EOP ..
Bil. dol
144.52 152.93 152.33 152.39 154.81 154.81 155.53
NA
106.08 125.35 131.13 125.39 122.17 121.80 122.27 1 2 3 . 0 4
0.5
0.4
0.6
-0.43
NA
10.80
11.28
9.55
8.98
9.94
8.84
7.32
8.16
7.56
8.22
9.40
7.88
NA
119
5,905
2,31*3
189
5,786
-193
8,166
3,186
207
696
8,972
3,369
1,115
8,469
3,390
194
7,353
996
9,015
3,368
216
8,019
976
9,165
3,238
210
8,189
4,177
568
84
-245
-1,913
-1,328
3,574
525
-840
2,676
4,735
•2,100
3,178 5,015
2,730 4,553
2,003 3,832
-670 1,047
3,326
920
3,261 •1,714
4,547
4,121
3,500
1,580
208
4,919
1,837
1,823
1,829
1,717
2,406
1,547
-468
-432
-332
533
-712
6,633
250
515
517
519
521
522
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do .
Mil. dol. ..
do .
Bil.dol....
Mil. dol. ..
-5.6
258.5
264.2
74.4
7,085
1,571
1.71
2,954
-8.1
291.1
299.1
78.7
7,753
1,741
1.90
3,457
-54.4 •103.3
284.1 251.8
338.5 355.0
84.7
84.8
7,780 8,212
1,761 1,639
1.74
1.83
3,499 3,940
-67.0
295.8
362.7
86.1
8,529
2,143
1.95
3,998
7,791
1,535
1.99
3,0S0
8,623
1,543
1.20
-48.9
-11.4
4.9
0.1
5.6
-6.9
-4.9
12.6
36.3
17.5
2.2
1.5
3.9
30.8
12.1
1.5
600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625
1958=100 .
1967=100 .
Percent . . .
1967=100 .
149.6
133tl
0.7
134.7
167.0
147 t 7
1.0
160.1
178.0
157,0
0.5
171.2
180.4
159.5
0.6
173.0
183.6
162.9
0.6
176.7
1.3
1,6
0.1
1.1
1.8
0.0
2.1
211
781
731
750
146.6
158". 6
167.7
170 o 7
174.3
Percent
do
do
7.96
7.53
0.08
9.53
9.41
-0.21
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
500.
502.
506.
508.
512.
Merchandise trade balance2
Mil. dol. ..
Exports, excluding military aid
do.
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles,
do.
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
1967=100
General imports
Mil. dol. ..
250.
515.
517.
519.
521.
522.
Balance on goods and services2
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances2
Balance on current account2
Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital2 .
Net liquidity balance2
Official reserve transactions balance2
8,359
179
8,277
1,076
9,288
3,905
207
8,212
100
1.3
18.8
-1.4
0.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
Mil. dol. ..
do .
do.
do.
do .
do .
D3. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.
616.
621.
648.
625.
Federal surplus or deficit, NIA2
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures, NIA
National defense purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S
10.7
0.5
-39.7
NA
NA
NA
1.53
NA
NA
NA
NA
27.5
NA
163.6
0.5
177.7
164 t 6
0.7
178.9
165,6
0.7
173.2
0.6
0.2
0.7
0,6
0.0
-0.4
175.2
176.5
178.1
0.7
0.9
1.8
2.1
740
0.1
0.4
0.0
741
0.7
2.4
1.8
0.4
1.1
1.4
-0.1
2.6
2.6
859
745
746
770
858
D4. Price Movements
211. Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product . . .
781. Consumer prices, all items©.
781c.Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . . .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities©
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Average hourly earnings, production workers
in private nonfarm economy
741. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers in private nonfarm economy
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings,
nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm ..
746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm ..
.do
.do
1967 dol. .
1967=100 .
do .
do .
do .
110.1
107.4
106.7
107.1
107.1
107.2
107.4
107.5
0.2
95.73
148.7
111.7
115.1
113.6
90.97
161.6
109.4
112.0
110.4
88.15
170.8
108.6
110.3
108.4
90.26
173.9
109.0
111.5
109.9
91.51
177.2
10 8.9
114.4
112.8
91.70
91.66
92.26
n.o
D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
841. Total civilian labor force
842. Total civilian employment
843. Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 .
Thousands
do .
do .
88,716 91,011 91,810 92,514 93,084 93,191 93,443 92,979
84,410 8 5 , 9 3 6 84,146 84,311 85,283 85,413 35,441 85,273
4,306 5 , 0 7 6 7,664 8,203 7,802 7,773 8,002 7,701
0.3
0.0
-2.9
-0.5
-0.2
3.8
0.8
0.2
-7.0
0.6
1.2
4.n
841
842
843
-1.2
.-3.0
2.0
-4.9
850
851
-4.
-5.
-3.9
-3.5
852
353
41.3
-26.4
854
-5.
0.
14.8
-0.1
860
857
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 ..
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries .
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods ..
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
persons unemployed
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 © ..
Percent .
Ratio ..
83.0
1.47
79.0
1.51
68.2
1.67
67.0
1.62
69.0
1.54
1.53
1.52
NA
-0.7
NA
.do .
1967=100 .
2.87
93.2
3.31
100.8
3.47
100.4
3.31
94.6
3.18
91.3
3.0 8
91.fi
2.97
90.8
NA
90.8
-3.6
-0.9
0.0
Ratio
0.082
0.079
0.075
0.106
fl.078
do .
Percent . . .
0.872
5.8
0.658
6.2
0.294
6.1
0.277
6.3
0.318
6.2
0.318
0.309
0.336
-2.8
NA
3.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated b y © , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. 'Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA = not available, a - anticipated.
EOP = end of period. S/A=seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables "in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
For the latest month, new indexes are based on 11 components, old index on 9.
*Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
Chart
Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
a t SKP in current dollars, 8 (ann. rate, bli. del.)
205. GNP In 1958 dollars, $ten.rate, bil. dot.)
210. Implicit price deflator, Q (index: 195H00)
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, 0 (ann. rate, ttious. dol.)
217. Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars, G
(ann. rate, tnous. dot.)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
KCII
DECEMBER 1975
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A2
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
220. National income, current dollars, 0 (aim. rate, oil. dol.]
224. Disposable personal
current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, Wl. dol.)
225. Disposable personal income,
dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
226. Per capita disposable personal income, current dollars, 0
(ann. rate, ttious. dol
capita disposable ^rsonal income,
dollars, 0 (ann. rate, thous. dol.)
1.5J
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
10
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
T
P
P
T
T
IIOO-I
pi
fifpist
mp
PSlii
1
tsii
900-
iHi
P.
r « a a ! rniKiimntinn ttttumdWiirp*
mft
•i
ifcilt
*
1000-
Annual rate, WIliM dollars
800700-
sit230. Total, cwi ent dollars, Q
600-
^ ^ ^ ^ m .
Sillii .
Durable goods, total excluding automobiles
current dollars, Q
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
KCII
DECEMBER 1975
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A4
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
242. Nonresidential structures, Q
243. Producers' durable equipment, Q
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
12
DECEMBER 1975
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A5
FOREIGN TRADE
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
252. Exports of goods and services, II
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
IICII DECEMBER 1975
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A6
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
260r - -
240220200180160140120 100-
ft i
f
266. State and local governments, Q
80-
60-
if" \
40-
201953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
14
DECEMBER 1975
HCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(July) (May)
P
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
T
T
P
P
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
270. Filial sales, durable goods, 8
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q
%* y
;;#&;•
«W?s :;W;
+15-
||
|1|
!. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, 0
+10-
lill?
WMUS
S B
iiij
HSit
lifts
•l
Hit
.
+5-
.::
'
ISS
§8as
sW
\1
w
UK
y
r
0-5-
^
£
-10-15-20-25-
1953 54 55
56 57 58
59
60
61 62 63
64
65 66 67
68 69
70 71
72 73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
HCII
DECEMBER 1975
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A8
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
§|§
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
280. Compensation of employees, Q
284. Rental income of persons, Q
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
16
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A9
SAVING
(July) (May)
P
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
T
240220200180-
Annual rate, billion
290. Gross saving (private and government), 0
296. Capital consumption
allowances,!
294. unoisiriDuieo corporaie proms pius
298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
licit
DECEMBER 1975
17
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A10
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
P
T
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (1958) 1
GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
Final sales, 1958 dollars, 0
in business inventories,
dollars, 0
\^Ty\ZZ
.Fixed investment, nonresidential,
248. Fixed investment, residential structures, 1958
Personal consumption expenditures,
total, 1358 dollars, 0
of goods and
249. Gross auto product, 1958 dollars, 0
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.
18
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A l l
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Gross National Product Shares
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
T
P
P
T
T
Percent
70-i
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as percent of GNP. (1
65-
60 J
20-i
266A. State aad local government
purchases of goods awl services
262A. Federal Government purchases
15-
10-
244A. Fixed investment, residential structures as percent i t H P , Q
5-
0J
250A. Net exports of goods ami:
as percent of GNP, Q
245A. Change in busk$ss inventories as patent of GNP, Q
National Income Shares
{Percent
80 n
:
280A. iMpensation of employees as percent of national incime, Q
75-
\
•
• • • • iT*
70-
mmm
65 J
282A. Proprietors'income as
percrat $ national income. 1
28SA. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment as percent of Bathsial income, 8
10-
284A- Rental income of persons as percent of national income, Q
\
288A. Net interest as percent of national income, Q
5-
0J
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
ICO
DECEMBER 1975
19
Section
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
.eading Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
21. Average
workers,
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
overtime hours
(hours)
1 Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
i f
Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale) | J §
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
20
DECEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Bl
Roughly Coincident Indicators
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
T
P
P
T
T
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1967=100)
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (ann. rate, bil. man-hours)
14013012085-
M
807570-
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
6590-
ffl858075-
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities (millions)
706560-
55-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.
I I DECEMBER 1975
21
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
f t t Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
rate, married males
-inverted scale
Lagging Indicators
01234-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
22
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
P
T
T
1600-
Comprehensive Production
15001400130012001100-
*200. GNP in current dollars, 0 (am. rate, Ml. dol.
1000900800700-
•205. GHP is 1956 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. do).)
130-
ED
1201101001300-
• « . Industrial production
(index: 1967=100)
120011001000900800J
^ j j Comprehensvi e Income B B J J B J ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ B B l i l ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ B
*52. Personar income (ana. rate, fail, dol.)
m
300280260-
1
240220200180160-
^r
_- , ; /
.^^
M
Wiaao olid oaloriao IH miiuwju
j ^
140-
w. wages an salaries in mmnijr
*r
msmm.,
constriction
S*
(a«n.rato,til. d o l l ^ ^
'
120-
100-
80-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
KCII
DECEMBER 1975
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
1953 54
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production. Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
24
DECEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
12. Net business formation (index: 1967-100)
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
New orders, durable goods industries (Ml. do!
truction contracts, total value (index: 1967=100;
moving avg.-5-term) 1
and orders, plant and
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
F I X E D CAPITAL I N V E S T M E N T — C o n .
Leading Indicators—Con.
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil
I goods industries,
Ipntracts,
of floor area;
l
New private housing mits started, total (ann. rate, millions;
MCD moving avg.-4-term)
permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.
26
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
160 i Backlog of Investment Commitments
140120-
z
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (til. dol.f
10080605040-
30-
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, 0 (bil. dol)1
20-
10 ^
Lagging Indicators
140r120-
Investment Expenditures j
100-
•61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
8060180 "
160140120100-
Machinery and equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
8060-» 4 0 J
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
IICII
DECEMBER 1975
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
ms
Change in business inventories, Q
mii(ann. rate, Ml. dol.)
ge in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
rate, HI.' dot.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher i
in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials and
, Ml. dot; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
policy, production materials, percent of companies
commitments 80 days or longer
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.
28
DECEMBER 1975
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (May)
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
illlH
1 Inventory Investment and Purchasing - Con
100n
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
Lagging Indicators
y
ffi]
•71. Ml value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dot.)
300260220180140 -
10055-1
504540353025- •
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
2015-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
KCII
DECEMBER 1975
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July) (May)
P
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
T
T
P
P
T
T
[Sensitive Commodity Prices
*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index:1841-43=10)
Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ami rate, bil. dol.)
*16. Current dollars
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income originating
in corporate n m s s , U ipercenu
1210-
15. Profits later taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing, a (cents)
753-
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.
30
DECEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, A N D PROFITS—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Aug.)(Apr
(July) (May)
P
P
T
T
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars,
Roughly Coincident Indicators
190-i
180 170160150140130-
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1967=100)
120-
m
110-
•SSSii!
§§f§|l|p
100-
mi
am
190-j
liiiiii
180-
SSfSR
170160-
'Wffll
150-
!•
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1867*100)
140130120110-
mm
100-
;/|lg|Si.
..mi!
wit
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
9080-
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
ItCII
DECEMBER
1975
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Lagging Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
Unit labor cost, total private ecoiony-
63c. Change over 1-quarter spans, 0 (ann. rale
•62. Labor cast per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these se ies are shown on page 80.
DECEMBER 1975
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(July) (May)
T
P
P
T
T
IBB
ifiBtlf!
Jjjllfi in money supply (M1) (ann. rate, percent; MOD moving avg.
+20+15+10+50-5-
102. Change is money supply pins time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
liSlli
(ann. rate, percent* moving avg.-6-term)
Siiiiiil M
.Mi
+20+15+10+50-5-
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits attanksand
B l a n k institutions (KB) (aim, rate, percent; moving avg.-6-term)
+20+15-
mil
iti ill
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, fail, dol.)
112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, Ml. dol.;
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
110. Total private borrowing, 0 (ann. rate, bil. dol
f
Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
Iment loans (percent—inverted scale)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .
34
DECEMBER 1975
KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.—inverted scale)
119. Federal funds rate (percent)
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. del
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
weekly reporting large commercial banks
(bil. dol
101. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 8 (percent)
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
36
DECEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
T
pi
XlVOtt, X201 X2ilt)
New index of twelve leading indicators,
New index of four coincident indicators
41, 47, SO, X234| 1
New index of six lagging indicators
( s i l l X I , 82,710, 72, i|!i251)
1948 49
50
51
52
53 54
55
56
57
58 59
60
61 62
63 64
65 66 67
68 69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
NOTE: The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown in appendix G.
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
ItCII
DECEMBER
1975
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
Leading Indicator Subgroups
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
I
commitments (series 6,10,12,29)
Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23,25,31,37)
816. Profitability (series 16,17,19)
817. Sensitive financial flows (series 33,85,112,113)
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
38
DECEMBER
1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
•10. Contracts and orders, plant
ami eauioment (bil. dol.)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54 55
56
57
58 59 60
61 62
63 64
65 66 67
68 69
70
71 72
73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 77.
ItCII
DECEMBER
1975
39
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Juiy)(May)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
8060J
•19. Stock prices, MO common stocks
(index- 1941-43=10)
^A
/V'
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(am. rate, Ml. dol. ; MCD moving avg.--6 term)
240220200180160140-
•23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967-100)
120100 80-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61 62
63 64
65 66 67
68 69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.
40
DECEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Selected Indicators by Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Aug.)CApr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index:
Roughly C o i n c i d e n t Indicators
B;^-::v^l:;=/---.ii,
illiiiiiillii
8O-1
i l l !
;.
;V
. i l l " '
.. • . ' l l g .
••
:
•. ••••; . l i S I S l ! " < - . : •
' •'•
: .. • r r i l i l i i . - /
\;,,)Z
7570-
sriciteal payrolls ( m i i l i o i i s ) ^ ^ ^ i l l
•
••
•
^
l
l
i
i
l
•••••;
•
...'....
, . - .
:
:
;
;
: i i | I i l f ? - : ?
'•
•
•••
:
;
•
85- '
:
•••.'• . •-. ':• •
1 | i l l i J - - ••.
: 1 1 - " v..- : !lll : ; v . : '
60™
55JBfili
• •
.
:'•••: ; •;... . • • . s l i s i l .
. •
50-
345«
6-
910-
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 68 87 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 79, 80, and 81.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
41
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July)(May)
P T
1600 150014001300120011001000900-
•47. Mistrial production (index:
Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
* » . Manufacturing and trade sales (bil. dol
•54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61 62
63 64
65
66 67
68
69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
42
DECEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
and equipment, 0 (aim. rate, bil. dol
•71. Book value, manufacturing and
inventories (bil. dol.)
*62. Labor cost per
output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dol.)
•67. Bank rates on
1948 49 50
51
52
53
54
55
56 57
58 59
business loans, Q (percent)
60
61 62
63 64
65 66 67 68 69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 80, and 82.
ItO
DECEMBER
1975
43
Chart
AGGREGATE SERIES
Cl
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.)
P
(Nov.)
T
61. Business expenditures for new plait and equipment, all industries, Q
(a) Actual expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.
(b) Second anticipations as percent of actual decent)
106-i
104-
TT U
.fT
*| •
•*
itU
•
4
--T
*i * i'i
»-
Ittt
hhi
102-
tT
1009896-
(c) First anticipations as percent of actual (gercwt)
106 -|
104-
TfTI
!ltillT,T.ffBM
"^
»
f ^
'Mill
102-
1*
1L
1009896-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
44
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
Cl
(Dec.)
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.)
414. ConditiDi of manufacturers'
percent considered high less
excessite, 0 (prewt-imrted salt)
0 (1st. Q 1966-100)
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
l t d ) DECEMBER
1975
45
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Apr.)
(Feb.)
(Dec.)
(Nov.)
P
T
P
T
T
ttifftfcifin
infillYOC>
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment
(plotted at teriii
1007550-
(b) Second anticipations
2501007550-
(cWirct antininatinns
250-
D44fl. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)
90-i
8070
6050-J
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and
90-.
80706050-
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-
908070605070605040-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84 and 85.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
46
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.)
(Feb.)
(Dec.)
(Nov.)
P
T
P
T
facturing and trade (4-Q span)
D450. Level of inventories,
D460. Selling prices,raanufactdringand trade ( | j j § ) '
D466. Selling prices, retail trade
ill II
(Ms* 1
Iliii •
lilt fit
iW
Api yCs<\ii
ifflppf
ili
!•
H
1957
58
59
60
' /TV' V
Up'
v/
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
9080706050-
71
72
73
74
75 1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
licit
DECEMBER 1975
47
Chart Dl
FOREIGN TRADE
(July) (May)
P T
1953 54
55
56
57
58
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
48
DECEMBER 1975
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
P
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
T
+6-1
+4-
25Q. Balance on goods and services
+20-
5. Balance on geods, services and remittances
-2+6+4-
517. Balance on current account
+20-
Balanee oiiilfefit a
and long-term capital
-2-4-
+4-
Official reserve transactions balance
+2-
-2-
-4-6-
-10-12 J
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
BCII
DECEMBER
1975
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
titles to i l l foreipers, outstaying at end of period
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities
foreign official agencies, outstanding at
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pa^e 87. End-of-year figures are used prior to 1960.
50
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
P
T
P
T
T
;
--H .
Goods and Services Movements,
i Except Transfers Under Military Grants
2041921801681561441321201089684-
3 Excess of receipts
1 Excess of pajnents
•I
mil
mm
IlSiiS
Goods,
rvices--
72152-i
14413612812011210496-
SKI
•HI•
US
m
80-
ill!
72645660565248444036322824-
20-
16-
12-
4J
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
IICII
DECEMBER 1975
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
• E x c e s s of receipts (iHflow)
Excess of payrawts (outflow)
32-
28-
24-
20-
16-
12-
oi U.S. investments abroad
4-
0-
8-
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
4-
0-
Receipts from foretp travelers hi the U.S.
8-
7. U.S. military expenditures abroad
4-
0-
146. Military sales to foreigners
16-
12-
Si
4-
0
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
J
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
52
DECEMBER 1975
IICII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
iKi.
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
.,:•.-.
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
.... mm
w
+12-1
+8-
+4-
0-
-4+8-
+4-
0-
Si
-40-
-4-
-8+4-
0-
-4-
-12-
-16-
-20-
-24-
-28-
-32
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
J
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
" DECEMBER 1975
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
protect accauts, 0 (am. rate, Ml. del
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
54
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
264. Natioaat drttnse purchases. Q
616. Metis* Siiartraeit obligations, Mai
(fail. AH.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement j \ j /»
{l
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-tennl
-" ^
647. Hew onters, deteise prwhets iidnstries
(fail. W . ; MCO moving avg.-6-tenn)
64o.
N6W (NuBCS, u6l6ilS6
prodicts (bil. del.; MCD
iig a»g.~6-tenn)
625. Military contract awanls in U.S.
(fail. « . ; MCD moving avg.-B-tenn)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
55
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
gross prtv3t6 proQDCt
to 1965). Q (index: 1958=100)
pries index, all Hens (seasonally adj.)-
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
1
0ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
56
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
P
P
I
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
P
T
T
Wholesale prices-
751. Processed foods asd feeds
55c. Change in wholesale price index, industrial
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
80
61
82
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
1
0ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
57
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
(July) (May)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
Average hourly
private
(annual .Wa prior to 1 9 6 4 ) -
lar earnings (index: 1967=
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings
or nonsiipervisory workers (1967 dollars)
Average hourly compensation,
private nonfara economydollar compensation, 0
1967=100)
(index: 1967
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
58
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
-'•.•• H i l l
••
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
.
:
:
745c. Current dollar compensation
decisions, all iidustries,.
JBJ
748. First yeaf avg. changes, I (aoa. rate)
Negotiateil wage and
749. Average changes over lite or
contract, Q (ann. rate)
770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private economy, 0
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.2One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
BCII
DECEMBER 1975
59
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D6
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
MS. Females 20 years and over
846. Both ^xes, 16-19 years of
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
60
DECEMBER 1975
Chart E l
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (May)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
460440420400 J
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 3d quarter 1975. See special note on page 95.
DECEMBER 1975
61
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
to sales, manufacturing anil trade (ratio)
Ratio, M f i l M enters to shipments,
(index: 1957=106)
saving to disposable personal incone, 0 (ratio)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
I
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 96.
62
DECEMBER 1975
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
sum
workers, manafacturing—21 industries (9-mo. span—,
100 500-
goods iidustries-35 iadnstries O-no. s p a — , 1-n».
100500-
apannriatiims—17 indastries (3-8 span
100500-
FHCB-aiwt 1,000 corporatiois (4-0 span—, 1-4
90-1
705030 J
500 c o n m stocks--65-82 iohstries (9-rao. s p a i — , 1
100500-
prices—13 industrial materials (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo.
100 500-
insarance~47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo
100500-
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.
I DECEMBER 1975
63
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
D47.
I prodictiw--24 indostries (SHM. spaa— f I H M . s p a — 4
100 -i
50
0
uwfactired goods—22 iadastrias (6-MO. span
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 98.
64
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E5
RATES OF CHANGE
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T
fli^ttja>^M§
(Dec.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
^IkjfcMJV*
(Nov.)
T
jhMMtitittl: Mrjfc'jjfc
rmm cnange, amp mm
200. (c) 6WP in current dollars (1-Q span)
+20+15+10+50-5-
I B . ( 0 GHP in constant W h r s (1-Q span)
composite index of 4 coincident indicators (series 41T 47, 560
47. Wex of mdBStrial productiofl
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75 1976
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide," pp. 117-120.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
65
Section
F
Chart Fl
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
CONSUMER PRICES
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
180T
Consumer urices
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 103.
66
DECEMBER 1975
IICII
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
T
P
P
T
T
Industrial production-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.
BCII
DECEMBER 1975
67
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F3
STOCK PRICES
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
P
T
T
P
T
Stock prices-
1953 54
55
56
(Dec)
(Nov.)
P
T
19. United States
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 104.
68
DECEMBER 1975
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Q |
a. Total
b. Difference
210. Implicit price deflator
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
Year
and
quarter
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1,115.0
1,143.0
1,169.3
1,204.7
+31.8
+28.0
+26.3
+35.4
+12.2
+10.5
+9.5
+12.7
770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2
+11.8
+15.7
+11.5
+16.1
+6.4
+8.4
+6.0
+8.3
144.6
145.3
146.5
148.0
+1.9
+0.7
+1.2
+1.5
+5.5
+1.9
+3.3
+4.1
1,248.9
1,277.9
1,308.9
1,344.0
+44.2
+29.0
+31.0
+35.1
+15.5
+9.6
+10.1
+11.2
832.8
837.4
840.8
845.7
+18.6
+4.6
+3.4
+4.9
+9.5
+2.2
+1.6
+2.3
150.0
152.6
155.7
158.9
+2.0
+2.6
+3.1
+3.2
+5.5
+7.3
+8.3
+8.6
1,358.8
1,383.8
1,416.3
1,430.9
+14.8
+25.0
+32.5
+14.6
+4.5
+7.6
+9.7
+4.2
830.5
827.1
823.1
804.0
-15.2
-3.4
-4.0
-19.1
-7.0
-1.6
-1.9
-9.0
163.6
167.3
172.1
178.0
+4.7
+3.7
+4.8
+5.9
+12.3
+9.4
+11.9
+14.4
1,416.6
1,44-0.9
-14.3
+24.3
r+63.5
-3.9
+7.0
r+18.8
780.0
783.6
r808.6
-24.0
+3.6
r+25.0
-11.4
+1.9
r+13.4
181.6
183.9
186.0
+3.6
+2.3
+2.1
r+4.8
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
rl,504.4
••GROSS NATIONAL
• H PRODUCT-Con.
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
Year
and
quarter
217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars
| Q NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in cur-
222. Personal
income in current dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
+8.4
+5.1
(Ann. raie,
bil. dol.
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
5,354
5,478
5,593
5,750
3,702
3,770
3,817
3,886
912.3
932.5
954.3
987.0
913.3
930.9
950.3
985.0
774.7
790.0
807.2
838.1
566.2
573.6
581.9
600.1
3,720
3,787
3,861
4,000
2,719
2,749
2,784
2,864
5,951
6,079
6,214
6,368
3,968
3,983
3,992
4,007
1,027.6
1,051.2
1,077.3
1,106.3
1,013.6
1,039.2
1,068.0
1,099.3
869.5
892.1
913.9
939.4
615.1
618.2
621.8
622.9
4,143
4,244
4,339
4,452
2,931
2,941
2,952
2,952
6,429
6,537
6,677
6,731
3,929
3,907
3,880
3,782
1,118.8
1,130.2
1,155.5
1,165.4
1,112.5
1,134.6
1,168.2
1,186.9
950.6
966.5
993.1
1,008.8
610.3
603.5
602.9
594.8
4,497
4,565
4,681
4,745
2,887
2,850
2,842
2,798
6,652
6,753
r7,033
3,663
3,673
r3,780
1,150.7
1,175.4
1,193.4
1,220.5
1,255.2
1,015.5
1,078.5
1,079.6
591.0
620.2
611.4
4,768
5,055
5,047
2,775
2,907
2,858
,
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
rl,227.5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.
DECEMBER 1975
69
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
^ J P E R S O N A L CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total, in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
234. Automo bles
in current doll ars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate
bil.dol.
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
701.5
720.6
736.8
757.2
512.8
523.2
531.2
542.2
112.1
116.2
121.2
124.3
75.5
77.9
79.4
82.4
36.6
38.3
41.8
41.9
288.4
297.4
302.0
310.9
301.0
307.0
313.6
322.0
781.7
799.0
816.3
823.9
552.9
553.7
555.4
546.3
132.4
132.1
132.4
124.3
87.0
87.3
87.0
86.3
45.4
44.8
45.4
38.0
323.3
332.7
343.8
352.1
325.9
334.2
340.1
347.4
840.6
869.1
901.3
895.8
539.7
542.7
547.2
528.2
123.9
129.5
136.1
120.7
88.1
91.5
92.5
88.1
35.8
38.0
43.6
32.6
364.4
375.8
389.0
391.7
352.4
363.8
376.2
383.5
913.2
938.6
968.8
531.5
539.7
548.6
124.9
130.6
138.6
89.6
93.5
96.3
35.3
37.1
42.3
398.8
389.5
397.9
407.5
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
410.1
422.7
J J G R O S S PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
244. Residential
structures
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
169.4
175.5
182.1
190.2
112.7
114.7
117.5
122.5
40.7
41.0
40.6
42.2
72.0
73.7
76.8
80.3
51.8
52.9
54.5
56.7
+5.0
+8.0
+10.2
+11.0
199.0
205.1
209.0
224.5
130.5
135.6
139.0
141.9
44.6
46.2
47.9
49.3
85.9
89.4
91.1
92.6
58.5
58.7
58.1
53.6
+10.0
+10.7
+11.8
+28.9
210.5
211.8
205.8
209.4
145.2
149.4
150.9
151.2
51.3
52.2
51.0
53.7
93.9
97.2
99.9
97.5
48.4
48.8
46.2
40.4
+16.9
+13.5
+8.7
+17.8
163.1
148-1
179.1
146.9
142.7
143.6
52.8
49.1
49.6
94.2
93.6
94.0
35.3
36.4
41.0
-19.2
-31.0
-5.5
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
70
DECEMBER 1975
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
• M GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
mm
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
R J F O R E I G N TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
253. Imports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
262. Federal
260. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
264. National
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-7.1
-6.9
-4.8
-5.3
69.1
68.8
73.3
78.5
76.1
75.7
78.1
83.8
251.1
253.8
255.1
262.6
105.6
105.9
102.7
105.2
75.9
75.9
72.6
74.7
145.5
147.9
152.4
157.4
-0.8
+0.5
+6.7
+9.3
88.8
95.4
103.7
113.6
89.5
94.9
96.9
104.3
269.0
273.3
276.9
286.4
106.4
106.2
105.3
108.4
75.0
74.0
73.3
75.3
162.6
167.1
171.6
177.9
+11.3
-1.5
-3.1
+1.9
131.2
138.5
143.6
147.5
119.9
140.0
146.7
145.7
296.3
304.4
312.3
323.8
111.5
114.3
117.2
124.5
75.8
76.6
78.4
84.O
I84.8
190.1
195.1
199.3
+S.^
142.2
136.0
rl42.7
133.4
119.8
129.8
331.6
338.1
343.5
126.5
128.4
130.5
84.7
84.8
86.1
205.1
209.7
213.0
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+16.2
r+13.0
Wm NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
Mil
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Q | F I N A L SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
280. Compensation
of employees
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
204.6
210.6
218.3
223.6
+2.7
+5.8
+6.8
+13.2
309.7
318.9
322.7
332.6
+2.2
+2.2
+3.4
-2.2
683.8
699.0
712.6
732.9
72.9
74.6
75.8
80.1
25.5
24.4
26.8
26.7
237.8
241.2
243.9
240.6
+6.1
+7.7
+9.0
+14.8
347.9
359.7
374.2
384.1
+3.9
+3.0
+2.9
+14.1
759.1
776.7
793.3
814.8
89.1
92.8
99.3
103.2
26.3
25.7
26.2
26.4
242.3
248.5
259.8
246.2
+8.7
-1.8
+5.7
+18.3
392.8
402.9
413.2
418.6
+8.2
+15.4
+3.0
-0.5
828.8
848.3
868.2
877.7
98.4
89.9
92.1
91.6
26.4
26.3
26.6
26.8
252.9
261.7
268.7
-13.4
-14.7
-9.2
433,2
-5.7
-16.3
+3.7
875.6
885.4
906.6
84.9
86.1
94.6
27.0
27.1
27.4
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
U9.8
461.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,14,15, and 16.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
71
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
• • • N A T I O N A L INCOME COMPONENTS
• • I
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
J J S A V I N G IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
296. Capital consumption
allowances
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
86.5
89.5
92.9
99.8
43.6
44.9
46.2
47.5
164.4
169.4
175.0
184.6
53.3
49.0
49.3
58.9
21.3
22.1
23.3
26.5
98.9
103.7
103.3
105.8
-8.2
-5.2
-0.6
-6.5
103.9
105.0
105.2
106.4
49.2
51.1
53.2
55.5
201.1
207.9
217.0
231.7
65.3
69.6
73.2
89.3
26.3
24.9
25.6
26.2
107.4
110.5
111.5
113.9
+2.1
+3.0
+6.7
+2.3
107.7
105.6
105.8
103.4
57.5
60.1
62.8
65.9
224.5
206.3
196.4
202.9
84.4
71.5
65.5
86.5
23.9
17.1
9.9
18.1
115.8
118.6
120.7
122.9
+0.4
-1.0
+0.2
-24.6
94-3
104.9
rl23.0
68.9
71.9
75.9
166.6
165.0
rl88.2
75.9
113.8
84.6
21.5
27.9
r36.4
125.2
127.4
130.0
-56.0
-104.2
r-62.8
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
0@REAL
Year
and
quarter
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
GROSS
NATIONAL PRODUCT
246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
263. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services,
constant (1958)
dollars
267. State and local
government purchases of goods and
services, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
766.7
780.0
789.7
805.3
+4.2
+6.6
+8.5
81.3
82.4
83.8
87.2
33.8
34.2
34.3
34.8
36.1
37.5
40.9
41.8
62.9
62.5
59.5
59.2
80.9
81.3
82.4
83.8
825.5
829.6
832.7
825.7
+7.3
+7.8
+8.0
+20.0
92.2
94.3
95.1
96.0
35.0
34.1
32.6
29.8
46.3
45.2
43.6
41.6
58.9
57.7
56.2
56.4
85.2
86.2
87.5
89,3
819.9
818.9
818.1
793.1
+10.6
+8.2
+5.0
+10.9
96.3
96.5
94.1
89.2
26.4
25.7
23.6
20.4
29.2
32.6
38.9
33.6
56.3
56.3
56.5
57.0
89.7
89.5
89.4
89.3
791.8
800.7
r8l0.9
-11.7
-17.1
-2.3
83.8
80.3
80.4
17.3
17.5
19.4
26.7
33.7
39.2
57.4
58.3
58.9
90.2
90.9
91.2
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.
72
DECEMBER 1975
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
^ f f l SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
Percent of Gross National Product
241 A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
245A. Change
in business
inventories
250A. Net exports of goods
and services
262A. Federal
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
266A. State and local
govt. purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
62.9
63.0
63.0
62.9
10.1
10.0
10.0
10.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
+0.4
+0.7
+0.9
+0.9
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
9.5
9.3
8.8
8.7
13.0
12.9
13.0
13.1
62.6
62.5
62.4
61.3
10.4
10.6
10.6
10.6
4.7
4.6
4.4
4.0
+0.8
+0,8
+0.9
+2.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.5
+0.7
8.5
8.3
8.0
8.1
13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2
61.9
62.8
63.6
62.6
10.6
10.8
10.7
10.6
3.6
3.5
3.3
2.8
+1.2
+1.0
+0.6
+1.2
+0.8
-0.1
-0.2
+0.1
8.2
8.3
8.3
8.7
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9
64.5
65.1
64.4
10.4
9.9
r9.5
2.5
2.5
2.7
-1.4
-2.2
-0.4
+0.6
+1.1
r+0.9
8.9
8.9
8.7
14.5
14.6
14.2
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
^ H s H A R E S OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees
(Percent)
282A. Proprietors'
income
284A. Rental income
of persons
(Percent)
(Percent)
286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment
(Percent)
288A. Net interest
(Percent)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
75.0
75.0
74.7
74.3
8.0
8.0
7.9
8.1
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
9.5
9.6
9.7
10.1
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
73.9
73.9
73.6
73.6
8.7
8.8
9.2
9.3
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
10.1
10.0
9.8
9.6
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
74.1
75.1
75.1
75.3
8.8
8.0
8.0
7.9
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
9.6
9.3
9.2
8.9
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.7
76.1
75.3
73.9
7.4
7.3
7.7
2.4
2.3
2.2
8.2
8.9
10.0
6.0
6.1
6.2
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.
BCII DECEMBER
1975
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
K H E M P L O Y M E N T AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Job
Vacancies
Marginal Employment Adjustments
* 1 . Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance,
State programs1
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
Comprehensive
Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
1973
January
February
March
40.5
i.o
3.8
4.0
3.9
4.8
4.9
4.9
226
E>223
227
0.8
E>0.7
238
234
233
•0.8
126
126
127
146.60
147.73
148.41
0.8
0.9
0.8
125
126
127
148.74
149.13
149.57
40.9
April
May
June
40,
40.9
40,
July
August
September..
40,
40,
40,
3.8
3.7
3.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
232
247
241
1.0
H>129
126
125
149.88
149.95
150.38
October
November . .
December . . ,
40.6
40.6
40.7
3.7
3.8
3.7
4.9
[H>4.9
4.5
244
251
284
0.9
1.0
1.1
127
126
122
150.40
151.74
151.46
January
February
March
40.5
40.4
40.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
4.5
4.4
4.4
306
323
312
1.4
1.2
1.2
117
116
117
150.88
151.32
151.07
April
May
June
39.3
40.3
40.2
2.7
3.4
3.4
4.5
4.6
4.4
293
291
306
1.1
1.1
1.1
120
119
119
149.15
151.70
151.29
40.2
40.1
39.9
3.4
3.4
3.2
4.4
4.2
4.0
290
332
362
1.0
1.3
1.4
118
114
107
151.22
151.53
151.50
40.0
39.5
39.4
3.1
2.8
2.7
3.7
3.1
3.1
410
458
504
2.0
2.5
2.6
99
91
85
E152.62
149.99
148.48
39.2
38.8
38.9
2.4
2.4
2.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
548
550
545
3.1
3.0
2.7
77
76
74
147.96
146.15
145.38
39.1
39.0
39.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
3.9
3.5
3.5
517
496
487
2.6
2.6
2.1
74
74
81
145.58
145.70
145.04
July
August
September . .
39.4
39.7
39.8
2.6
2.8
2.8
4.2
4.0
3.7
410
UU2
451
84
S3
83
145.35
146.81
rl47.26
October
November . .
December . .
r39.9
P39.8
r2.8
p2.8
3.6
P3.6
r433
P384
1.5
1.5
1.7
1.7
pi.6
83
rl48.23
p!48.32
0)4.0
3.9
3.8
1974
July
August
September..,
October
November . . ,
December . . .
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
,
P 87
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by E > ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators.(chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20, 2 1 , and 39.
•'"Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
74
DECEMBER 1975
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
J ^ B E M P L O Y M E N T A N D UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS . . . .
* 4 1 . Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment—Con.
*43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
(Percent)
1973
5.0
5.0
4.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.4
1.1
1.0
1.0
80,521
80,669
81,022
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
0.9
76,940
77,207
77,366
31,14481,148
81,626
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.1
2.1
0.8
0.9
0o9
77,673
77,973
78,058
82,024
82,006
82,011
January
February
March
78,068
78,196
78,236
April
May
June
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
January
February
March
75,516
75,915
76,159
79,182
79,863
80,256
April
May
June
76,367
76,569
76,878
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . ,
E>4.6
2.6
4.8
4.9
B>2.6
2.8
2.2
2.2
0.9
0)0.8
82,051
82,050
82,126
5.2
5.2
5.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
0.9
0.9
0.9
78,351
78,486
78,530
82,272
82,565
82,755
5.0
5.2
5.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.4
2.2
2.6
78,648
|H>82,970
82,823
82,913
5.3
5.4
5.8
3.2
78,733
E>78,830
2.7
2.7
2.8
1.1
78,790
78,374
77,723
82,864
82,314
81,863
6.0
6.6
7.2
4.2
3.0
3.3
3.8
1.1
1.2
1.4
January
February
March
77,319
76,804
76,468
81,179
80,701
80,584
8.2
8.2
8.7
5.5
6.0
6.4
4.5
4.7
5.2
1.7
2.0
2.2
April
May
June
76,462
76,510
76,343
80,848
80,890
81,140
9.2
8.6
6.9
6.6
5.6
5.8
5.7
2.6
2.8
3.1
July
August
September...
76,679
77,023
r77,310
81,628
81,884
81,872
8.4
6.2
8.4
5.8
8.3
5.7
5.4
5.0
5.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
October
November . . .
December . . .
r77,508
p77,549
82,019
81,986
8.6
8.3
5.5
P5.1
5.2
4.9
2.8
3.0
0.8
1974
3.2
3.4
3.7
4.9
1975
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by M): for
series that mnve counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2 1 , 22, 4 1 , and 43.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
£ U
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Income
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross national product
in current dollars
*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
*47.Index of
industrial production
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1967-100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufactur
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
(Mil.dol.)
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales
59. Deflated
(1967 dollar)
sales
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1973
January
February
March
1,248.9
832.8
122.2
123.4
123.7
1,002.0
1,014.4
1,024.5
235.1
238.0
239.8
135,962
138,404
140,538
1,238.9
a , 242
a,979
33,930
34,106
E>34,393
April
May
June
1,277.9
837.4
124.1
124.9
125.6
1,031.7
1,038.9
1,047.2
242.2
244.1
246.8
140,215
141,924
141,697
1,267.2
41,185
41,723
41,167
33,384
33,553
32,832
July
August
September...
1,308.9
840.8
126.7
126.5
126.8
1,056.1
1,067.6
1,080.4
248.4
249.7
253.4
144,754
145,309
145,226
1,297.0
42,767
42,355
42,529
34,011
33,349
33,339
October
November . . .
December . . .
1,344-0
E>845.7
127.0
H>127.5
126.5
1,090.8
1,100.0
1,107.1
255.7
258.7
259.9
149,196
151,899
150,929
1,315^1
42,970
42,976
42,116
33,494
33,209
32,121
1,358.8
830.5
125.4
124.6
124.7
1,107.0
1,113.4
1,117.1
257.4
260.0
260.7
154,323
156,595
159,735
l,34l!9
43,079
43,295
43,938
32,523
32,246
32,453
1,383.8
827.1
124.9
125.7
125.8
1,125.2
1,135.2
1,143.5
262.7
265.3
267.9
160,999
163,048
163,539
44,406
44,838
44,727
32,467
32,326
31,896
1,416.3
823.1
125.5
125.2
125.6
1,159.5
1,167.2
1,178.0
268.6
271.7
273.5
168,082
171,229
170,355
45,905
46,920
45,858
32,395
32,771
31,528
1,430.9
804.0
124.8
121.7
117.4
1,185.0
1,184.5
1,191.0
H)274.6
267.4
264.3
170,997
167,918
162,347
45,844
44,529
45,109
31,212
30,064
30,416
January
February . . .
March
1,416.6
780.0
113.7
111.2
110.0
1,191.1
1,193.4
1,195.7
261.2
255.4
255.2
161,915
163,248
159,050
1,435^8
46,006
46,914
45,951
30,922
31,493
30,630
April
May
June
1,440.9
783.6
109.
110.
Ill,
1,203.1
1,214.3
1,244-1
255.7
256.7
259.1
162,374
163,038
165,504
1,471 .#9
46,813
48,173
48,578
31,035
31,971
31,922
J}>rl,5C4.4
r808.6
112.2
rll4.2
1,238.9
1,255.9
1,270.9
260.8
265.8
269.5
169,124
172,349
rl73,441
,509.8
49,655
49,925
r49,549
32,319
32,350
r32,052
rl,279.2
rll6.
pll6.8 [H>P1,29O.1
r271.8
p274-4
r5O,191
[H>p5O,7O5
r32,256
P32,515
40,707
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
,
July
August
September..
October....
November . .
December . .
1,407.6
1975
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23,24, and 42.
76
DECEMBER 1975
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
J J
TIMING CLASS . . . .
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business
Enterprises
*12.Index of
net business
formation
(1967=100)
New Investment Commitments
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
8.Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations 1
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
(Number)
(Bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
9. Construction contracts
for commercial and industrial buildings, floor
space1
(Million
sq. feet)
(Million
sq. meters)s
1973
January
February
March . .
119.1
119.9
E)12O.8
27,796
28,752
28,964
38.48
39.37
40.86
185
191
193
11.33
11.36
11.69
9.72
9.57
9.45
10.04
87.48
85.89
84.71
8.13
7.98
7.87
April
May
June
119.3
118.8
118.5
28,522
28,286
27,999
40.81
41.71
42.29
177
173
183
11.30
11.94
12.76
10.92
9.94
10.04
10.56
83.61
83.73
85.79
7.77
7.78
7.97
July
August
September...
118.2
117.2
115.6
27,664
26,689
26,240
41.01
41.71
40.70
175
199
182
12.62
12.65
12.26
11.67
10.57
10.28
10.39
E>95.42
89.80
83.77
H>8.86
8.34
7.78
October
November . . .
December . . .
116.2
117.6
1H.0
26,809
26,718
24,881
42.71
43.04
41.24
191
194
161
13.29
13.40
12.73
12.20
10.93
11.16
10.94
91.60
87.47
69.51
8.51
8.13
6.46
January
February
March
113.3
113.0
113.9
26,511
27,056
26,458
41.63
42.60
42.40
155
187
181
12.66
13.17
13.01
12.fi
11.00
11.42
11.30
76.53
80.67
75.07
7.11
7.49
6.97
April
May
June
115.9
116.3
115.7
29,071
27,562
25,785
44.32
46.96
47.20
167
x£8
166
13.67
14.57
13.84
14.98
11.92
11.80
12.01
82.77
77.98
75.83
7.69
7.24
7.04
July
August
September...
118.6
114.6
111.1
27,790
26,495
26,313
47.42
K9.18
46.21
177
170
187
E>15.16
13.52
14.08
E>16.38
H)12.80
11.80
11.83
76.64
82.17
73.70
7.12
7.63
6.85
October
November . . .
December . . .
105.2
105.1
106.3
25,404
25,555
25,003
44.39
42.70
38.09
148
154
176
12.87
12.34
13.64
12.68
11.38
10.62
10.46
62.47
56.71
54.25
5.80
5.27
5.04
January
February
March
102.9
101.7
103.0
24,406
24,29S
24,922
36.17
37.36
35.97
135
135
153
11.39
11.34
11.44
11.46
10.08
9.97
9.52
54.39
46.54
39.69
April
May
June
103.4
10^.8
110.7
26,506
26,634
26,843
38.98
39.43
39.73
189
182
174
13.01
12.99
12.34
11.08
10.31
10.30
10.14
56.90
44.79
50.54
4.70
July
August
September...
1-113.7
112.6
113.1
r28,896
41.68
42.69
42.23
165
H>208
157
12.65
13.98
11.93
pl0.82
10.73
10.39
10.21
52.60
43.25
50.12
4.89
4.02
4.66
October
November . . .
December . . .
relll.8
ell3-9
166
148
rl2.15
P12.39
rlO.69
pll.O5
54.10
41.99
5.03
3.90
1974
1975
28,708
E) 29,365
(NA)
r42.39
P41-87
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9) or The Conference Board (series 11).
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
BCII
DECEMBER 1975
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
••INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
•ill
INVESTMENT
£ Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
New Investment
Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Investment Expenditures
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
28. New private *29.Index of
new private
housing units
housing units
started, total 1
authorized by
local building
permits1
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(1967=100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing2
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
* 6 1 . Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
245. Change
in business
inventories1
1974
112.5
113.9
120.2
111.38
113.58
114.93
April
May
June
1,580
1,-467
1,533
108.9
99.9
96.1
117.82
122.02
126.08
July
1,314
1,156
1,157
89.6
80.0
73.5
129.67
134.30
B>135.70
1,106
1,017
69.9
66.4
72.1
134.22
132.66
129.94
January
February
March
1,437
1,881
1,511
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
107.27
144.. 58
147.63
149.04
+16.9
+35.2
+36.8
+35.8
63
59
57
111.40
149.90
151.29
156.22
+13.5
+24.8
+47.7
+53.0
59
58
56
113.99
151.32
151.94
155.49
+8.7
+57.3
+53.1
+61.5
54
57
58
H>116.22
H> 160.52
159.38
156.39
+17.8
[H>+67.4
+39.4
+47.7
49
47
41
114.57
153.54
155.41
150.14
-19.2
+1.2
-10.8
-21.6
37
30
30
112.46
151.74
148.75
150.24
-31.0
-17.7
-31.6
-7.0
26
31
29
112.16
148.67
149.95
rl49.25
-5.5
-4.8
+15.8
r+5.1
25
28
37
p+22.7
42
38
39.84
44.80
0)50.01
49.79
1975
January
February
March
999
1,000
985
59.4
60.4
58.3
125.87
123.25
120.10
April
May
June
1,130
1,094-
72.1
78.6
81.8
118.23
117.48
116.75
July
August
September...
1,235
1,269
rl,269
89.8
85.7
94.4
117.21
117.41
116.36
October
November . . .
December . . .
rl,457
pl,375
r93
P96.3
rlU.84
P113.98
49.08
47.64
P45.74
rall4.80
P153-40
(NA)
(NA)
1976
January
February
March
April
May
June
all8.l6
al20.87
,
July
August
September . .
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Current high values are indicated by E > ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by(H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 2 7 , 2 8 , 4 0 , and 43.
1
Series reaching high values before 1974 are as follows: Series 28, January 1972 (2,494); Series 29, December 1972 (208.5);
Series 245, 4th quarter 1973 (+28.9); Series 37, October 1973 (70). a This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not
be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
78
DECEMBER 1975
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
Inventories
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
• • P R I C E S , COSTS, AND PROFITS
^ • I N V E N T O R I E S AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer®
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
32. Vendor
performance, unfilled
companies re- orders, durporting slower able goods
industries
deliveries©
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil.dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive ComStock Prices
modity Prices
65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
*23.Index of
industrial
materials
prices©
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks©
(Bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
1941-43=10)
(Bil.dol.)
Profits and Profit Margins
Corporate profits after
taxes
*16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
18. Constant
1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1973
January
February
March
+4.1
+5.3
+3.2
63
68
67
78
84
+1.36
+1.64
+2.89
199.61
201.71
203.55
35.72
35.87
36.19
139.3
147.5
155.3
E>118.42
114.16
112.42
71.5
50.5
April
May
June
+4.2
+5.3
+6.9
77
80
78
90
0)92
89
+2.80
+3.14
+3.67
204.98
207.34
209.87
36.08
36.45
36.84
158.2
162.9
170.1
110.27
107.22
104.75
74.0
51.4
July
August
September...
+7.6
+6.3
+7.0
82
80
83
+2.05
+3.09
+1.90
211.84
214.05
215.51
36.85
36.74
37.04
178.1
189.8
186.3
105.83
103.80
105.61
72.9
49.8
October
November . . .
December . . .
+7.9
+5.7
+13.1
87
84
87
+2.42
+2.42
+1.56
217.30
220.17
224.40
37.12
37.33
37.95
188.1
192.4
208.9
109.84
102.03
94.78
73.2
49.1
January
February
March
+12.2
+11.8
+13.8
90
0)91
85
85
+1.52
+2.20
+1.34
227.34
230.40
233.39
38.46
38.89
39.11
215.9
232.0
237.2
96.11
93.45
97.44
83.2
54.5
April
May
June
+12.6
+16.0
+13.5
S3
84
84
84
79
76
+2.89
+4.20
+4.07
235.46
239.43
243.85
39.35
39.76
40.39
0)238.4
226.2
227.5
92.46
89.67
89.79
83.1
52.9
July
August
September...
H)+19.7
83
85
S3
72
68
52
+3.58
H>+4.64
248.63
253.05
258.18
41.34
42.09
43.41
228.2
224.2
214.7
82.82
76.03
68.12
0)94.3
0)58.2
October
November . . .
December . . .
+9.5
+4.8
+19.2
82
73
46
32
22
-1.47
-1.57
-2.71
263.79
267.08
271.05
44.27
45.58
46.73
204.4
196.4
183.4
69.44
71.7'4
67.07
79.5
46.9
+8.4
+2.1
-6.1
64
64
58
18
16
17
-4.07
-2.63
-3.15
0)271.15
270.25
268.45
47.60
47.70
0)47.73
180.1
181.1
182.3
72.56
80.10
83.78
62.3
35.9
-12.2
-10.5
-8.2
57
54
56
22
24
26
-1.87
-0.76
-0.72
266.97
264.34
263.75
47.29
47.01
46.83
186.4
184.2
173.2
84.72
90.10
92.40
70.3
40.0
-7.4
-6.5
-2.2
53
58
58
30
36
44
+0.45
+0.20
-1.05
263.34
264.66
r265.09
46.41
46.60
47.02
171.5
179.6
184.2
92.49
85.71
84.67
r82.6
r46.5
+1.9
(NA)
62
60
45
44
r-1.51
p-0.87
p266.98
(NA)
46.97
(NA)
181.9
179.8
1
180.6
88.57
90.07
2
88.28
91
1974
+17.9
+15.5
+1.39
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29, 3 0 , 4 0 , 4 1 , and 43.
•"•Average for December 2, 9, and 16.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
2
Average for December 3 , 10, and 17.
79
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| ^ P R I C E S , COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.
Year
and
month
22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orig. in
corporate
business
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all x
mfg. corp.
(Percent)
(Cents)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
dollars
55. Index of
wholesale
prices,
industrial
(1958) dol. commod.@
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*17. Ratio,
price to unit Net cash flows, corporate
labor cost
index, mfg. 34. Current 35. Constant
(1967=100)
58. Index of
Unit labor cost, total
private economy
wholesale
prices* mfd.
63.Index
goods@
63c. Change
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
120.0
121.3
122.8
121.6
123.6
125.7
127.6
124.2
125.3
126.0
126.4
128.3
130.1
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.
(Dollars)
*62.Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
11.4
4 .7
103.0
104-1
105.3
April
May
June
11.6
4 .7
104.7
105.6
106.4
July
August
September
11.1
4-7
October
November
December .
10.8
January
February
March
April
May
June
7.4
112.0
79.1
115.7
...
80.5
...
106.0
109.3
106.9
114.8
78.5
126.1
126.7
127.4
129.1
133.4
131.8
5.7
106.3
107.5
108.6
115.5
78.1
128.5
130.1
132.2
132.0
132.8
135.1
11.6
5.8
110.7
111.2
112.2
125.7
83-4
135.3
138.2
142.4
138.6
140.9
143.6
139.9
12.1
5.6
112.8
113.9
114.0
126.3
81.5
146.6
150.5
153.6
146.0
149.3
151.5
144.1
H)13.5
H>5.9
116.7
119.5
120.0
[H>138.6
0)86.4
157.8
161.6
162.9
156.4
161.8
162.4
148.5
11.1
4.9
120.9
(H)121.5
119-9
125.5
74.0
I64.8
165.8
166.1
165.2
166.2
166.9
153.6
9.3
3.8
...
117.5
116.2
113.7
109.6
...
62.5
167.5
I68.4
168.9
168.2
168.0
167.8
157.5
April
May
June
10.2
4.4
113.9
113.4
113.6
119.3
67.1
169.7
170.3
170.7
168.7
169.5
170.1
0)158.8
July
August
September
11.5
5.0
114.9
rll5.1
rll6.5
rl33.3
r74.6
171.2
172.2
173.1
171.4
172.3
173.0
157.1
11 U.I
0)175.4
0)174-5
118.4
II8.4
119.0
0.858
120.2
120.7
121.2
6.9
129.8
...
...
0.870
...
0.884
121.6
122.4
123.3
0.905
124.7
124.8
125.4
7.4
132.1
134.7
...
8.0
...
1974
July
August
September
.
October
November
December
125.6
126.5
127.4
0)16.4
0.937
...
0.964
129.0
130.2
131.8
0.993
134.0
134.6
135.5
1.023
136.8
138.1
140.5
0)1.043
144.0
144.5
147.3
1.034
147.8
148.6
148.4
1.022
149.1
rl48.7
rl48.5
12.6
12.8
14.4
1975
January
February
March
October
November
December
rll7.6
P 118.2
174.4
10.7
3.2
-4.1
rl48.6
0)pl49.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 3 1 , 3 2 , 4 1 , and 43.
^-Data beginning with the 4th quarter 1973 are not comparable with earlier data due to changes in the definition of profits
and in the rules for consolidation. The figure for the 4th quarter 1973 on the old basis is 4.8.
80
DECEMBER 1975
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ J MONEY AND CREDIT
TIMING CLASS . . . .
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (M1)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
102. Change in
money supply
plus time
deposits at
commercial
banks (M2)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
103. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change
in mortgage deb
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies1 2
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
112. Net
change in
bank loans to
businesses3
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*113. Net
change in consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil, dol.)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures® 1
(Mil, dol.)
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over,
consumer
installment
loans1
(Percent)
1973
+5.16
+4.67
+9.36
+7.02
+5.40
+10.65
+8.45
+6.99
+47.92
+49.33
+53.46
+23.70
+50.95
+41.00
+23.39
+23.96
H> +24.53
+6.51
+13.42
+13.72
+7.85
+12.03
+11.69
+8.20
+11.18
+11.76
+52.75
+53.51
+57.43
+26.14
+14.32
+13.07
+16.85
+23.89
+19.34
July
August
September...
+3.62
-0.45
-1.35
+5.24
+6.96
+4.54
+5.96
+5.26
+4.43
+53.60
+52.30
+43.74
+22.94
+29.40
+6.02
+23.98
+22.74
+16.31
October
November . . .
December . . .
+4.06
+12.60
+9.35
+9.48
+11.97
+10.58
+8.42
+10.49
+10.27
+40.69
+39.76
+31.66
+3.13
+4.31
+17.00
+20.40
+20.71
+4.92
-2.65
+9.75
+9.23
+6.92
+11.26
+9.50
+7.18
+9.47
+9.52
+36.94
+39.92
+41.93
+19.79
+1.04
+30.01
+11.00
+8.05
+7.40
+6.10
+4.34
+10.37
+7.99
+4.48
+11.16
+7.53
+3.68
+9.11
+48.34
+47.36
+39.54
[H>+52.21
+20.42
+14.92
July
August
September...
+1.71
+0.43
+0.86
+5.02
+4.60
+2.99
+4.77
+3.75
+2.99
+39.83
+31.58
+30.66
October
November . . .
December . . .
+3.85
+8.52
+3.38
+8.35
+7.90
+3.73
+7.09
+7.66
+5.90
-11.81
+3.41
+11.05
+2.54
+8.39
+11.63
+3.37
+11.34
D+1S.72
January
February
March
April
May
June
185,696
...
178,460
184,496
161,928
205.84
137.16
252.35
119.34
167.95
180.21
2.01
2.01
206.19
190.15
189.47
185.66
218.67
245.62
2.11
2.27
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
157,203
337.28
213.13
204.59
+13.84
+15.14 [H> 207,196
+13.03
209.76
375.69
215.50
+44.54
+14.17
+21.02
+15.90
+18.14
+8.12
164,008
153.40
232.68
217.01
+29.34
+24.11
+16.52
+9.90
+21.42
+14.22
+4.82
-4-80
-9.77
306.83
344.66
242.59
2.65
142,872
+5.62
+9.86
+13.88
+25.07
+30.26
+28.99
-11.59
-39.71
-17.42
-4.81
+2.84
-5.24
95,040
391.14
384.76
343.35
2.59
2.71
2.94
+7.29
+13.36
H>+19.25
+11.69
+14.89
H>+19.84
+36.54
+39.47
+35.38
-22.73
-22.70
-18.34
-2.90
-1.50
+5.06
107,432
372.08
357.79
175.92
2.74
2.65
2.63
+2.05
+2.86
+2.04
+8.17
+5.90
+4.77
+12.17
+9.43
+7.78
+40.72
+38.22
+47.96
-7.32
-18.72
r+2.80
+10.43
+6.00
+12.68
pl20,084
242.03
222.44
205.53
2.60
2.65
2.59
r-2.44
p+12.24
4
+1.62
r+4-39
p+12.75
4
+7.86
r+7.39
p+12.36
p+57.82
(NA)
r+5.57
p+9.28
+3.6l
+8.59
(NA)
1,295.39
(NA)
(NA)
2.'54
2.56
2#.6l
2#.63
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
f
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (§). Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33,34, and 4 1 .
•••Series reaching high values before 1973 are as follows: Series 33, December 1972 (+57.89); Series 14, December 1972 (86.79);
Series 39, December 1971 (1.71). 2Data include conventional mortgages held by GNMA. 3Data beginning October 1974 are not strictly
comparable with earlier data. See October 1974 BCD, page iii. 4Average for weeks ended December 3 and 10.
ItCII DECEMBER 1975
81
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank
Reserves
Interest Rates
93. Free
reserves @
119. Federal funds
rate©
114. Treasury bill
rate @
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Year
and
month
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt
116. Cor115. Treas- 117. Municporate bond ury bond ipal bond
yields© yields©
yields©
66. Consumer
installment
debt
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil.dol.)
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks1
(Mil.dol.)
Interest Rates
109. Average prime
rate charged
by banks©
*67. Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans, 35
cities©
118. Mortgage yields,
residential©
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March
-823
-1,388
-1,563
5.94
6.58
7.09
5.31
5.56
6.05
7.61
7.67
7.75
5.96
6.14
6.20
5.05
5.13
5.29
126,388
128,385
130,429
93,885
98,131
101,548
6.00
6.02
6.30
6.52
7.55
7.56
7.63
April
May
June
-1,564
-1,638
-1,653
7.12
7.84
8.49
6.29
6.35
7.19
7.70
7.69
7.73
6.11
6.25
6.32
5.15
5.14
5.18
131,833
133,824
135,436
103,726
104,919
106,008
6.60
7.01
7.49
7.35
7.73
7.79
7.89
July
August
September...
-1,584
-1,734
-1,477
10.40
10.50
10.78
8.02
8.67
8.48
7.97
8.45
8.10
6.53
6.85
6.41
5.40
,48
,10
137,434
139,329
140,688
107,920
110,370
110,872
8.30
9.23
9.86
9.24
8.19
(NA)
9.18
October
November . . .
December . . .
-i,ia
10.01
10.03
9.95
7.16
7.87
7.36
7.97
7.95
8.09
6.25
6.30
6.35
05
18
5.12
142,388
144,114
144,524
111,133
111,492
112,909
9.94
9.75
9.75
10.08
8.97
8.86
8.78
7.76
7.06
7.99
8.32
8.21
8.60
6.56
6.54
6.81
5.22
5.20
5.40
145,4a
146,112
146,729
114,558
114,645
117,146
9.73
9.21
8.83
9.91
-1,444
9.65
8.97
9.35
8.54
8.66
-1,506
-2,282
-2,739
10.51
11.31
11.93
8.23
8.43
8.14
9.04
9.39
9.59
7.04
7.09
7.02
5.73
6.02
6.13
147,882
149,144
150,230
121,497
123,199
124,442
10.02
11.25
11.54
11.15
9.17
9.46
9.46
10.18
7.75
10.30
H)8.74
8.36 H)1O.44
7.18
H>7.33
7.30
6.68
6.71
6.76
151,555
153,067
153,744
128,154
129,335
130,988
E>12.40
[H>12.00
9.85
10.30
6.57
6.61
7.05
154,146
153,746
152,932
131,813
133,598
B> 134,783
11.68
10.83
10.50
11.64
10.13
(NA)
9.51
-995
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
-790
-980
,
July
August
September..
October
November ..
December . .
-2,982 [H>12.92
-3,008
12.01
-2,957
11.34
11.98
12.00
(NA)
(H>10.38
-1,585
-960
-332
10.06
9.45
r8.53
7.24
7.58
7.18
10.29
9.22
9.47
7.22
6.93
6.77
-4a
7.13
6.24
5.54
6.49
5.58
5.54
9.17
8.84
9.48
6.68
6.66
6.77
6.82
6.39
6.74
152,531
152,768
152,331
133,817
130,508
129,056
10.05
8.96
7.93
9.94
8.99
8.84
8.69
5.49
5.22
5.55
5.69
5.32
5.19
9.81
9.76
9.27
7.05
7.01
6.86
6.95
6.97
6.95
152,089
151,964
152,386
127,162
125,270
123,742
7.50
r7.40
r7.07
8.16
(NA)
9.16
9.06
6.10
6.14
6.24
6.16
6.46
6.38
9.56
9.70
9.89
6.89
7.11
7.28
7.07
7.17
153,-255
153,755
154,812
123,132
121,572
rl21,805
r7.15
17.66
r7.88
8.22
9.13
9.32
9.74
5.82
5.22
5.23
6.08
5.47
3
5-50
9.54
9.48
"9.69
7.29
7.21
4
7.22
[H>155,528
(NA)
r122,269
pl23,042
123,343
1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
+95
+167
+17
-52
+288
July
August
September..
-276
October....
November . .
December ..
-136
pf42
p+319
2
+212
a
(H>7.44
5
7.39
7.43
7.32
7
7.96
7.53
7.26
9.53
9.41
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of theae series are shown on pages 35.36. and 43.
1
Data beginning with September 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October 1974 BCD, page iii. yAverage
for weeks ended December 3, 10, and 17. 3Average for weeks ended December 4, 11, 18, and 26. 4Average for weeks ended December 5,
12, and 19. BAverage for weeks ended December 4, H , and 18. BAverage for weeks ended December 3 and 10. 7Average for December 1
through 22.
82
DECEMBER 1975 I B M !
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES
New index of
12 leading
indicators,
original
trend
New index of
12 leading
indicators,
reverse
trend
adjusted1
New index of
4 coincident
indicators
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
125.0
125.7
124.5
164.5
166.0
164.8
163.4
166.5
168.0
140.8
144.4
147.5
102.2
102.5
103.2
121.2
121.6
122.2
124.1
124.9
0)126.6
164.3
166.3
H>169.7
168.2
169.6
170.3
151.3
154.2
158.1
0)103.3
103.2
102.3
120.8
120.9
July
August
September...
126.5
123.9
122.3
168.8
166.1
165.3
173.0
172.7
174.4
162.4
166.1
169.3
101,
102,
102.8
October
November . . .
December . . ,
122.4
121.7
119.8
165.8
166.6
164.8
176.4
0)178.2
175.6
170.3
171.7
175.8
117.5
117.7
119.6
162.5
163.2
166.0
173.7
172.6
172.2
117.4
116.5
113.7
163.4
163.0
160.0
July
August
September..,
112.9
108.8
104.3
October
November . . ,
December . .
Year
and
month
New index of
6 lagging
indicators
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2,
3,5)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6,10,
12,29)
815.Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
816. Profitability
(series 16,
17,19)
817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33,85,
112,113)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
114.8
116.6
118.8
115.6
116.3
118.5
124.2
125.9
0)128.6
0)122.4
118.6
121.3
123.9
118.1
119.0
118.8
120.4
123.7
121.9
121.1
120.5
118.9
123.6
126.9
125.3
118.6
120.8
119.2
122,
117,
108.7
102.6
100.8
97.7
118.9
119.2
116.1
127.1
129.1
132.9
119.6
119.0
119.5
108.2
110.6
104.7
177.7
177.6
178.7
95.3
95.2
94.8
115.7
116.6
117.3
132.1
135.2
134.6
122.8
123.7
125.6
106.9
109.6
115.8
171.8
172.5
171.6
184.0
189.4
192.3
95.6
95.6
96.1
118.3
118.4
117.4
135.3
137.3
138.0
124.8
125.0
126.4
123.1
121.0
116.1
159.
153,
147.
172.4
171.9
171.0
195.5
196.7
198.3
95.8
94.3
92.3
118.8
115.9
113.3
137.8
0)138.0
134.4
128.0
129.4
125.4
115.8
113.7
105.5
100.2
97.1
95.0
142.
138.
136.3
169.0
162.8
156.4
199.5
198.9
D199.5
89.0
85.7
83.9
109.5
108.3
108.8
129.2
124.1
120.7
124.9
124.4
119.4
106.2
101.1
92.8
91.6
91.0
91.8
131.9
131.5
133.3
152.5
149.7
147.0
rl92.3
rl90.2
82.5
81.9
82.5
104.1
104.1
103.9
113.3
112.2
110.9
117.1
115.9
116.1
89.1
90.5
88.7
94.6
96.6
99.7
138.0
141.5
146.6
147.6
148.8
149.5
rl85.4
rl81.6
rl74.8
83.9
84.0
85.7
107.6
109.0
111.3
112.1
112.4
112.5
117.7
119.8
rl22.2
94.0
96.2
99.1
102.0
102.6
102.5
rl50.6
152.1
152.5
151.4
rl54.7
rl57.O
175.6
rl74.7
rl73.6
89.3
r88.7
114.2
rll3.9
112.4
116.6
1-117.0
r-124.9
1-124.7
1-126.0
101.3
98.8
102.1
102.5
y
158.1
159.0
r-174.4
pl72.2
p89.1
(NA)
rll3.5
pll4-6
rll8.9
pll8.3
rl29.0
0)pl3O.4
plO9.9
(NA)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
1974
January
February
March
,
April
May
June
,
,
1975
January
February
March
,
April
May
June
July
August
September..,
October
November . . ,
December . . ,
y
152.5
153.7
3
198.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by K > . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
•"•Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the new index of 4 coincident indicators.
2
Excludes series X170D for which data are not yet available.
3
Excludes series 56D for which data are not yet available.
The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown in appendix G.
DECEMBER 1975
83
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
I B B AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual
c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
414. Condition
of manufacturers'
inventories; percent considered
high less percent
considered low
412. Manufacturers'
inventories, total
book value
410. Manufacturers'
sales, total value
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries
(Percent)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
96.19
97.76
100.90
103.74
100.6
100.8
101.0
101.2
100.5
102.4
100.9
100.6
206.2
211.4
215.1
224.6
110.2
113.0
116.1
120.9
9
11
12
13
107.27
111.40
113.99
116.22
99.9
99.3
99.1
98.4
100.8
98.7
99.3
99.8
232.4
242.1
255.0
252.8
126.5
133.5
143.0
150.4
18
22
23
31
114.57
112.46
112.16
rall4.80
98.8
100.8
101.2
103.0
101.2
101.5
236.0
240.5
a26l.O
a271.2
151.2
148.1
al46.2
al44-3
30
24
(NA)
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1976
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
all8.l6
al20.87
K B AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
416. Adequacy
of mfrs.' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(Percent)
B H DIFFUSION INDEXES
435. Index of
consumer
sentiment®
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(First quarter
1966=100)
(1-Qspan)
b. Second
anticipations
(1-Qspan)
D440. New orders,
manufacturing 1 ®
c. First
anticipations
(1-Qspan)
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Qspan)
(4-Qspan)
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
41
45
48
51
80.8
76.0
71.8
75.7
83.3
61.1
83.3
66.7
77.8
77.8
72.2
75.0
86.1
63.9
61.1
72.2
88
90
88
86
88
90
88
87
51
49
45
32
60.9
72.0
64.5
58.4
77.8
86.1
61.1
63.9
72.2
77.8
61.1
55.6
75.0
86.1
69.4
61.1
84
82
74
59
86
80
85
80
22
21
19
58.0
72.9
75.8
75.4
38.9
44.4
38.9
36.1
41.7
50.0
61.1
66.7
52.8
66.7
61.1
50
54
64
72
59
70
73
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1976
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
75.0
78
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44,45, and 46.
"""This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
84
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
• M
Year
and
quarter
(4-Qspan)
(4-Qspan)
(4-Qspan)
(4-Qspan)
(4-Qspan)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
D450. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 ®
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade 1 ®
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade 1 ®
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade 1 ©
Actual
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
(4-Qspan)
(4-Qspan)
(4-Qspan)
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
78
79
76
76
82
85
84
80
86
89
86
85
88
90
90
88
63
62
60
60
60
63
62
60
73
76
75
76
69
72
72
70
74
76
71
63
80
74
79
77
82
84
80
70
86
78
86
82
58
59
56
49
61
56
60
58
78
79
78
69
70
67
72
72
52
53
58
68
58
66
67
57
58
66
75
62
73
74
44
44
48
53
48
54
54
58
52
56
64
54
50
54
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1976
82
76
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
B B
60
56
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Selling prices
Year
and
quarter
D460. Manufacturing
and trade 1 ®
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Qspan)
D464. Wholesale trade 1 ®
D462. Manufacturing1©
Actual
(4-Qspan)
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Qspan)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Qspan)
D466. Retail trade1 ©
(4-Qspan)
(4-Qspan)
(4-Q span)
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
86
86
90
92
76
82
85
83
82
84
86
90
73
80
83
82
90
89
92
96
80
86
88
84
90
87
93
93
76
85
88
83
94
96
94
90
87
90
92
91
92
96
94
89
86
89
92
90
96
96
94
91
88
94
92
91
92
97
96
92
87
89
92
93
80
80
80
87
76
69
76
81
78
78
86
76
68
74
80
79
81
87
74
70
76
80
84
86
88
75
72
79
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1976
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
78
75
80
81
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
•""This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
(Mil. d o l . )
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
(1967=100)
512. General imports, total
(Mil. dol.)
1973
-289
-413
-102
4,955
5,070
5,311
2,304
2,248
2,307
164
172
184
5,244
5,483
5,414
April
May
June
+133
-142
-47
5,494
5,561
5,728
2,111
2,258
2,109
193
184
207
5,360
5,703
5,775
July
August
September..
+37
+32
+776
5,865
6,0^2
6,420
2,228
2,853
2,10 4
189
192
194
5,829
6,010
5,644
October
November . . ,
December . .
+589
+194
+658
6,585
6,879
6,949
2,633
2,291
2,665
195
205
191
5,996
6,684
6,291
January
February
March
+652
+231
-116
7,150
7,549
7,625
2,828
2,872
3,115
213
216
205
6,498
7,318
7,742
April
May
June
+82
-612
-260
8,108
7,652
8,317
3,375
3,520
2,960
219
206
210
8,025
8,264
8,577
July
August
September..
-615
-888
-297
8,307
8,379
8,399
2,900
3,204
3,327
211
219
215
8,922
9,267
8,696
October....
November . .
December . .
-100
0
-395
8,673
8,973
8,862
3,565
3,264
3,305
207
190
178
8,773
8,973
9,257
January
February . . .
March
-210
+917
+1,380
9,412
8,789
8,716
3,295
3,166
3,6^7
187
172
178
9,622
7,872
7,336
April
May
June
+557
+1,052
+1,737
8,570
8,145
8,692
3,193
3,446
3,531
194
191
197
8,013
7,093
6,954
July
August
September..
+977
+1,035
+976
8,885
8,996
9,165
3,338
3,479
3,288
214
225
210
7,908
7,961
8,189
October....
November . .
December . .
+1,076
(NA)
9,288
(NA)
p3,9O5
(NA)
p207
(NA)
8,212
(NA)
January
February
March
,
1974
1975
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
86
DECEMBER 1975
IICII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
and
quarter
250. Balance
on goods and
services
(Mil. doL)
515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances
Ml.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1 2 ®
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
521. Net
liquidity balance
519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital
517. Balance
on current
account
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1972
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
-1,786
-1,657
-1,245
-1,243
-2,187
-2,050
-1,625
-1,674
-2,773
-2,608
-2,198
-2,131
-3,953
-2,338
-2,966
-1,855
-3,460
-2,287
-4,570
-3,511
-3,563
-624
-4,681
-1,485
66,925
69,880
75,498
78,679
-361
166
1,553
2,820
-755
-228
1,147
2,110
-1,116
-849
653
1,647
-1,393
-1,085
1,917
-419
-6,811
-1,719
1,826
-950
-10,629
551
2,318
2,449
85,361
86,279
86,576
87,572
2,992
78
-235
989
2,622
-379
-692
550
26
-1,787
-1,500
-99
1,701
-2,302
-3,574
r-6,529
r-1,193
r-6,254
r-3,897
r-7,598
r552
r-4,200
rll7
r-4,868
91,154
98,865
105,439
112,885
3,178
r5,O15
p4,547
r2,730
r4,553
p4,121
2,003
r3,832
p3,5OO
r-670
r1,047
pi,580
r3,326
r920
P 208
r-3,26l
r-1,714
rp4,919
116,983
118,197
119,272
1973
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
• BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1©
(Mil.dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets 3 ©
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
252.
(Mil.dol.)
Exports
(Mil.dol.)
253.
Imports
(Mil.dol.)
Income on investment, military
transactions, other services
Merchandise, adjusted
Goods and services
536.
Exports
(Mil.dol.)
537.
Imports
(Mil.dol.)
540.
Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541.
Imports
(Mil.dol.)
1972
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
53,806
54,604
60,075
61,526
12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151
17,247
17,275
18,349
19,729
19,033
18,932
19,594
20,972
11,798
11,699
12,496
13,395
13,489
13,296
14,027
14,985
5,449
5,576
5,853
6,334
5,544
5,636
5,567
5,987
71,336
70,701
69,777
66,827
12,931
12,914
12,927
14,378
22,329
24,144
26,282
29,298
22,690
23,978
24,729
26,478
15,423
16,958
18,451
20,547
16,334
17,189
17,737
19,164
6,906
7,186
7,831
8,751
6,356
6,789
6,992
7,314
65,631
70,043
72,730
76,658
14,588
14,946
15,893
15,883
33,337
35,510
37,187
38,413
30,345
35,432
37,422
37,424
22,464
24,218
25,034
26,593
22,587
25,677
27,349
27,973
10,873
11,292
12,153
11,820
7,758
9,755
10,073
9,451
79,210
80,468
77,799
16,256
16,242
16,291
37,097
r35,198
P37,246
33,919
r30,l83
p32,699
27,188
r25,692
rp26,7l6
25,358
r22,314
rp24,690
9,909
r9,5O6
plO,53O
8,561
r7,869
p8,009
1973
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49. 50, and 51.
i ^ ^ t outstanding at end of quarter. 2 See (2) on page SS. ^Reserve position at end
of quarter. 4Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts
(exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
IICII
DECEMBER 1975
87
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
( ^ B A L A N C E OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
Travel
Income on investments
542. U.S. investments abroad
545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
549. Payments
for
548. Receipts
from
547. Military
expenditures
abroad ®
(Mil. dol.)
546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
2,274
2,387
2,595
2,905
1,364
1,403
1,462
1,612
673
695
713
736
1,232
1,231
1,250
1,329
332
281
255
295
1,222
1,272
1,105
1,185
2,170
2,213
2,290
2,398
1,726
1,730
1,750
1,861
3,123
3,304
3,576
3,995
1,799
2,096
2,413
2,511
836
817
860
899
1,338
1,394
1,375
1,419
347
455
531
1,009
1,174
1,236
1,072
1,177
2,600
2,610
2,864
2,848
2,045
2,063
2,132
2,207
6,129
6,447
7,054
6,438
2,884
4,483
4,700
3,879
997
955
1,016
1,064
1,463
1,476
1,455
1,579
663
678
766
837
1,166
1,324
1,279
1,335
3,084
3,212
3,317
3,481
2,245
2,472
2,639
2,658
4,304
r4,446
p4,678
3,128
r2,854
p2,900
1,229
rl,l64
pl,174
1,616
r1,484
pi,560
1,303
rl,209
pi,113
3,422
r3,292
P3,437
2,5H
r2,322
p2,436
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
954
804
pl,241
^ B A L A N C E OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Securities investments
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
561. U.S. investments
abroad
564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
575. Banking and other
capital transactions, net
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-221
216
156
229
1,121
335
1,315
760
1,059
961
718
1,769
476
318
-203
28
-747
-837
-993
-1,311
-923
365
-1,121
-1,518
371
583
990
711
2,065
1,025
539
1,339
1,718
489
1,173
675
-30
111
216
462
-910
-571
-1,567
-1,551
-2,096
-580
-152
-3,050
1,177
1,700
-1
-653
745
1,572
1,828
3,310
692
440
204
-663
646
313
304
726
-1,294
-670
-930
-1,487
r-7,020
r-7,631
r-1,799
r-3,994
340
r679
p-124
1,041
r2,304
P 668
r653
678
Pl,O33
2,031
1,001
p998
-1,407
r-1,273
P-1,389
r-2,104
r-3,419
P-1,3O5
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter .
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
Beginning with the 1st quarter 1975, data include nonmarketable nonconvertible U.S. Treasury bonds and notes which are not
included prior to this date. On the old basis, the figure for the 1st quarter 1975 is $113,143 million.
2
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
602. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
264. National
defense purchases
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil. dol.)
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
648. New orders, defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil. dol.)
1973
-11.2
249.1
260.2
75.0
6,840
7,337
7,361
1,631
1,838
1,704
1.62
1.63
1.80
2,824
2,899
2,947
April
May
June
-7.4
255.0
262.4
74.0
6,739
7,269
7,069
1,349
1,730
1,633
1.90
1.79
1.96
2,568
3,171
2,897
July
August
September...
-1.7
261.8
263.4
73.3
7,203
7,039
6,260
1,483
1,676
1,099
1.18
1.90
1.34
2,106
3,276
3,222
October
November . . .
December . . .
-2.3
268.3
270.6
75.3
7,671
7,443
6,794
1,788
1,771
1,149
1.83
2.12
1.45
3,176
3,515
2,850
-2.8
278.1
281.0
75.8
7,527
7,348
7,186
2,077
1,708
1,642
2.18
2.06
1.46
3,378
3,141
2*677
-3.0
288.6
291.6
76.6
7,883
7,302
7,663
2,040
1,330
1,412
1.53
2.08
1.75
4,343
2,881
3,440
-1.9
302.8
304.7
78.4
8,177
8,199
7,781
1,919
1,692
1,842
1.38
3.23
1.68
3,494
4,153
3,502
-24-.5
294.7
319.3
84.O
7,603
3,138
8,228
1,446
2,349
1,431
1.40
2.35
1.67
4,161
3,777
2,532
-54-4
284.1
338.5
84.7
7,609
7,508
8,223
1,424
1,509
2,349
2.15
1.70
3,693
3,987
2,817
-103.3
251.8
355.0
84.8
7,95.2
8,235
8,450
1,425
1,850
1,642
r-67.0
r295.8
362.7
86.1
8,718
9,077
7,791
2,074
2,821
1,535
I.64
1.66
1.91
1.82
2.05
1.99
8,623
1,543
(NA)
rl.20
pi. 53
January
February
March
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
,
July
August
,
September..
October
November . .
December . .
1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
,
July
August
September..
October
November . . ,
December . .
(NA)
4,122
3,926
3,773
3,842
r5,072
3,080
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " . estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
DECEMBER 1975
89
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
Year
and
month
211. Index
(1958=100)
Consumer price indexes
211c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
782. Food
All items
781. I n d e x ®
781c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(1967=100)
(Percent)
783. Commodities less
food
784. Services©
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
781c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
6.8
7.3
7.9
129.2
131.0
134.0
121.0
121.4
121.9
135.7
136.2
136.6
136.2
137.9
139.8
122.4
122.8
123.3
137.1
137.6
138.1
1973
January
February
March
145.1
April
May
June
148.0
July
August
September...
151.0
October
November . . .
December . . .
7.4
127.7
128.6
129.8
0.5
0.6
0.8
8.1
130.7
131.5
132.4
0.7
0.5
0.6
8.4
132.7
135.1
135.5
0.3
1.7
0.3
8.9
9.6
9.7
139.9
148.8
148.0
123.5
123.9
124.2
138.4
139.3
140.6
9.1
136.6
137.6
138.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
11.4
10.0
11.7
149.0
150.9
152.1
125.0
125.9
126.8
142.2
143.0
143.8
14.1
139.7
141.5
143.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
11.3
11.8
12.3
154.6
157.4
158.2
128.4
129.8
131.5
144.8
145.9
147.1
12.2
143.9
145.5
146.9
0.7
1.0
0.9
11.8
11.8
12.1
158.3
159.7
I6O.3
132.9
134.2
135.8
148.0
149.5
150.9
13.8
148.0
149.9
151.7
0.8
1.1
1.2
12.7
12.5
12.2
159.4
162.2
I64.8
137.5
139.3
140.8
152.6
154.2
156.0
12.6
153.0
154.3
155.4
0.9
0.9
0.8
11.7
10.4
8.5
166.9
168.8
170.4
141.8
142.9
143.8
157.3
158.7
160.1
7.7
156.1
157.2
157.8
0.6
0.5
0.3
7.8
6.6
6.6
171.9
171.4
170.3
144-5
145.6
146.4
161.3
162.6
163.2
5.5
158.6
159.3
160.6
0.6
0.4
0.8
7.6
6.8
7.2
170.9
171.8
174.4
147.5
147.8
148.5
164.
164
r7.4
162.3
162.8
163.6
1.2
0.2
0.5
7.4
8.1
177.4
177.4
177.6
149.9
150.7
151.2
I64.6
165.6
0.7
0.7
179.9
180.9
151.7
152.1
7.5
10.0
8.7
1974
January
February
March
159.5
April
May
June
164.2
July
August
September..,
169.6
October
November . . .
December . . .
174.7
1975
January
February
March
178.0
April
May
June
180.A
July
August
September..,
October
November . . ,
December . . ,
183.6
165.7
166.6
167.4
169.1
170.1
172.0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
Dn 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
90
DECEMBER 1975
HOI
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
IPRICEMOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
750. All
commodities®
58. Manufactured
goods©
751. Processed
foods and feeds
752. Farm
products
Industrial commodities
55. I n d e x ®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
55c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1973
January
February
March
124.5
126.9
129.8
121.6
123.6
125.7
131.7
135.5
140.4
143.3
147.5
158.1
120.0
121.3
122.8
0.2
0.9
1.1
8.0
8.6
9.3
April
May
June
130.5
133.2
136.0
126.4
128.3
130.1
141.5
145.9
150.7
161.7
170.2
178.4
124.2
125.3
126.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
9.4
8.6
7.8
July
August
September...
134.3
H2.1
139.7
129.1
133.4
131.8
145.5
164.9
156.3
172.1
211.8
201,8
126.1
126.7
127.4
0.2
0.6
0.7
8.4
10.0
12.3
October
November . . .
December . . .
138.7
139.2
141-8
132.0
132.8
135.1
154.5
154.8
155.7
193.6
189.9
189.9
128.5
130.1
132.2
1.1
1.5
1.8
16.5
19.8
24.9
January
February
March
146.6
149.5
151.4
138.6
140.9
143.6
161.1
162.6
161.5
200.6
200.4
193.5
135.3
138.2
142.4
2.0
2.0
2.8
28.5
31.1
32.2
April
May
June
152.7
155.0
155.7
146.0
149.3
151.5
I6I.4
160.0
156.0
187.9
180.8
164.5
146.6
150.5
153.6
2.6
2.5
2.2
34.4
35.6
30.8
July
August
September...
161.7
167.4
167.2
156.4
161.8
162.4
166.9
177.9
177.0
180.8
186.8
184.4
157.8
161.6
162.9
2.9
2.5
1.0
27.9
23.8
19.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
170.2
171.9
171.5
165.2
166.2
166.9
185.0
193.8
188.2
193.1
194.0
186.1
I64.8
165.8
166.1
1.5
0.8
0.4
14.0
9.5
7.6
January
February
March
171.8
171.3
170.4
168.2
168.0
167.8
185.3
180.3
175.7
177.9
170.2
168.1
167.5
I68.4
168.9
0.5
0.4
0.1
A-7
3.4
3-4
April
May
June
172.1
173-2
173.7
168.7
169.5
170.1
181.9
180.3
178.1
179.3
184.5
181.7
169.7
170.3
170.7
0.1
0.2
0.4
3.2
3.7
5.0
July
August
September...
175.7
176.7
177.7
171.4
172.3
173.0
183.9
184.5
186.3
193.7
190.7
198.9
171.2
172.2
173.1
0.4
0.6
0.7
7.3
8.2
October
November . . .
December . . .
178.9
178.2
174.5
174.4
187.7
186.5
203.2
198.0
174.7
175.4
1.2
0.4
1974
1975
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.
ItOI
DECEMBER 1975
91
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month
Real earnings
Current dollar earnings
740.Index
(1967=100)
740c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
740c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
741.Index
(1967=100)
741c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
741c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
859. Real
spendable
avg. weekly
earnings of
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv.
workers
(1967 dnl.)
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy
Current dollar compensation
745. Index
(1967=100)
745c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
745c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1973
January
February
March
142.3
142.7
143.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
6.4
6.1
6.1
111.2
110.8
110.4
-0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-1.1
-1.7
96.42
96.76
96.40
144.9
April
May
June
144-6
145.0
146.0
0.9
0.3
0.7
6.6
7.2
7.7
110.6
110.3
110.4
0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.8
-2.6
-0.9
96.34
95.83
95.89
147.0
July
August
September...
147.0
147.7
148.8
0.7
0.5
0.7
6.9
7.5
7.3
110.8
109.4
109.9
0.4
-1.3
0.5
-1.9
-1.9
-2.2
96.23
94.78
95.18
149.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
149.5
150.3
151.2
0.5
0.5
0.6
6.7
7.0
7.0
109.5
109.2
109.2
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
-4.2
-2.8
152.4
-4.3
94-58
94.66
94.22
January
February
March
151.8
152.8
153.9
0.4
7.0
8.5
9.8
108.4
107.9
107.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.4
-3.9
-2.9
-2.2
92.94
92.75
91.99
155.3
April
May
June
154.7
156.5
158.5
0.5
1.2
1.3
10.4
10.9
107.4
107.6
107.9
-0.1
0.2
0.3
-1.7
-1.2
-1.1
90.91
91.62
91.34
159.6
July
August
September..
159.2
160.6
162.0
0.4
0.9
0.9
11.5
10.0
9.0
107.5
107.2
107.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-1.
-2.
-2.
91.37
90.68
90.16
163.5
October
November . .
December . .
163.3
164.2
165.4
0.8
0.6
0.7
9.1
9.2
8.9
106.8
106.4
106.4
-0.2
-0.4
0.0
-2.3
-1.1
0.4
89.91
88.61
88.67
167.3
January
February . . .
March
166.3
167.8
169.1
0.5
0.9
0.8
7.6
8.0
8.4
106.3
106.6
107.2
-0.1
0.3
0.6
-0.2
1.3
1.7
88.43
88.08
87.93
170.8
April
May
June
169.4
170.6
172.2
0.2
0.7
0.9
106.8
107.1
107.3
-0.4
0.3
0.2
0.7
1.4
r0.2
87.58
91.67
91.53
173.9
July
August
September . .
173.1
174.6
rl75.2
0.5
0.9
0.3
8.4
8.3
r7.4
r8.6
p9.0
106.6
107.4
107.2
-0.7
0.8
-0.2
rl.l
p0.8
91.01
91.82
91.70
177.2
October
November . .
December . .
rl76.5
P 178.1
r0.7
p0.9
rlO7.4
plO7.5
r0.2
pO.l
10.2
7.4
5.9
7.8
7.0
7.2
3.0
8.6
1974
7.8
9.4
11.5
9.8
10.1
10.0
9.6
1975
8.6
8.4
7.4
8.0
91.66
P92.26
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Percent changes are centered -within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4-th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the^ middle
month of the 3d quarter.
92
DECEMBER 1975
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Year
and
month
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.
748. First
year average
changes
Real compensation
746. Index
(1967=100)
746c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per man-hour, total
private economy
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries©
749. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
7.1
5.6
770.Index
(1967=100)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
770c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
1.8
113.9
0.5
113.4
-2.7
113.4
-2.2
113.2
-2.3
111.2
-3.7
110.7
-1.8
110.1
-0.8
109.1
2.2
108.4
1973
3.8
January .,
February
March . . .
112.5
April
May.
June
111.7
July
August
September.
111.3
October..
November
December
110.8
-2.5
-1.7
7.8
6.7
-0.6
7.2
114.. 9
6.3
1H.6
-2.5
-1.6
4.6
115.5
0.5
S.I
5.6
1U.8
-1.8
-1.9
-1.1
0.7
1974
-3.9
January ..
February .
March . . ,
109.7
April
May.
June
109.7
July
August
September.
109.2
October..
November
December
108.5
6.9
6.2
112.3
-1.9
9.2
0.1
7.7
112.4
-2.1
-2.0
11.9
0.3
-1.5
8.0
112.0
-1.0
-2.6
-8.4
14.6
-5.1
8.7
-0.7
110.5
1975
P13.0
0.7
January .
February ,
March . . ,
108.6
April
May.
June
109.0
July
August
September.
108.9
1.3
-0.4
-0.6
P7.5
110.3
-0.3
P9.3
pll.4
P 7.7
4.2
111.5
p8.6
114.4
109.9
11.0
112.8
October..
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
ItCII
DECEMBER 1975
93
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
841. Total
(Thous.)
842. Employed
(Thous.)
Unemployment rates
843. Unemployed
844. Males
20 years and
over
(Thous.)
(Percent)
845. Females
20 years and
over
(Percent)
846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
847. White
(Percent)
848. Negro
and other races
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March
86,964
87,703
88,043
82,633
83,276
83,686
4,331
4,427
4,357
3.4
3.4
3.4
5.2
4.9
4.9
14.3
15.4
14.2
4.5
4.5
4.4
9.0
8.9
April
May
June
88,296
88,325
88,791
83,877
84,021
84,487
4,419
4,304
4,304
3.3
3.3
3.2
4.8
4.6
4.9
15.3
15.0
14.0
4.4
4.4
4.3
9.3
9.1
July
August
,
September..,
88,902
88,816
89,223
84,679
84,582
84,983
4,223
4,234
4,240
3.1
3.1
3.1
4.8
4.9
4.8
14.3
14.3
14.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
9.2
8.9
9.3
October
November . .
December . .
89,568
89,852
90,048
85,452
85,577
85,646
4,116
4,275
4,402
3.0
3.1
3.2
4.5
4.7
5.0
14.1
14.6
14.4
4.1
4.2
4.4
8.4
8.4
January
February
March
90,465
90,551
90,381
85,800
85,861
85,779
4,665
4,690
4,602
3.4
3.5
3.4
5.1
5.1
5.0
15.5
15.0
15.0
4.7
4.6
4.6
9.2
9.2
9.2
April
May
June
90,324
90,753
90,857
85,787
86,062
86,088
4,537
4,691
4,769
3.5
3.4
3.5
5.0
5.1
5.1
14.0
15.6
15.8
4.5
4.7
4.8
9.3
9.0
July
August
September..
91,283
91,199
91,705
86,403
86,274
86,402
4,880
4,925
5,303
3.6
3.8
3.9
5.2
5.3
5.7
16.2
15.3
16.7
4.8
4.9
5.3
9.4
9.4
9.9
October....
November . .
December . .
91,844
91,708
91,803
86,304
85,689
85,202
5,540
6,019
6,601
4.3
4.6
5.3
5.6
6.6
7.2
17.1
17.4
18.1
5.5
5.9
6.4
10.9
11.6
12.5
January
February . . .
March
92,091
91,511
91,829
84,562
84,027
83,849
7,529
7,484
7,980
6.0
6.2
6.8
8.1
8.1
8.5
20.8
19.9
20.6
7.5
7.4
8.0
13.4
13.5
14.2
April
May
June
92,262
92,940
92,340
84,086
84,402
84,444
8,176
8,538
7,896
7.0
7.3
7.0
8.6
8.6
8.1
20.4
21.8
19.2
8.1
8.5
7-9
July
August
September..
92,916
93,146
93,191
85,078
85,352
85,418
7,838
7,794
7,773
7.0
6.6
7.0
7.9
7.7
7.5
19.1
21.1
19.3
7.9
7.6
7.6
14.6
14.7
13.7
13.0
14.0
14.3
October
November . .
December . .
93,443
92,979
85,441
85,278
8,002
7,701
7.1
6.9
7.8
7.8
19.9
18.6
7.9
7.6
14.2
13.8
1974
1975
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
94
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
H B ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
Year
and
quarter
206. Potential GNP
205. Actual GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2
806.8
814.7
822.8
830.9
+35.9
+28.1
+24.7
+16.7
832.8
837.4
8^0.8
845.7
839.1
847.3
855.7
864.I
+6.3
+9.9
+14.9
+I8.4
830.5
827d
823.1
804.0
872.6
881.2
889.9
898.7
+42.1
+54.1
+66.8
+94.7
780.0
783.6
r808.6
907.6
916.5
925.5
+127.6
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+132.9
r+116.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by
the Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of
the Council in 1962. Since that time, it has been used as a standard with
which to evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce
if all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and
institutional arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has
never meant the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime
conditions but rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions
of reasonable price stability. This has always been less than complete
utilization. Under ordinary circumstances, some unemployment is present
because some workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old
plants are idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate
profitably. In the past, this degree of utilization has been reflected in an
overall unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated
with that degree of unemployment has typically not been specified.
Furthermore, notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary
over time.
Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the
DECEMBER 1975
Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 100
percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969. At the beginning of
1970, the Council estimated that after the fourth quarter of 1969 potential
was growing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, reflecting a rise of 1.8 percent
in the potential labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual hours of work,
and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour at potential. Drawing on a new
study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("The United States Economy in
1985", Monthly Labor Review, December 1973), the Council has lowered its
estimate of potential growth after 1969 to 4 percent per annum, reflecting
the following component changes: labor force, 1.8 percent; annual hours,
—0.3 percent; output per manhour, 2.5 percent.
Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. It cannot be reasonably assumed that potential
grows in each year or quarter at the same annual rate. Some qualifications
about the measure of potential appear on pages 64-65 of the 1974 Economic
Report.
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
• ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled
orders to shipments,
durable goods
industries
853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1967=100)
month
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Ratio)
860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
857. Vacancy rate
in total rental
housing®
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March
p82.8
April
May
June
,
1.47
I.46
1.45
2.59
2.60
2.67
90.1
90.8
90.7
0.075
0.866
0.847
0.867
5.7
1.46
1.46
1.48
,73
,78
91.4
92.0
92.9
0.078
0.842
0.871
0.878
5.8
02
06
92.6
95.0
95.1
0.080
0.910
0.886
0.878
5.8
September..
1.46
1.47
1.48
October
November . .
December . .
1.46
1.45
1.49
01
04
3.13
95.2
95.7
96.6
0.095
0.918
0.877
0.825
5.8
1.47
1.47
I.46
3.14
3.16
3.14
98.1
99.2
99.3
0.089
0.747
0.737
0.757
6.2
p80.1
•••
1.46
1.47
1.49
3.20
3.21
3.30
99.5
100.4
100.0
0.074
0.787
0.755
0.743
6.3
p79.4
1.48
1.48
1.52
3.39
3.45
3.46
101.0
99.2
102.7
0.066
0.720
0.689
0.601
6.2
P75.7
1.54
1.59
1.67
3.32
3.38
3.56
103.0
103.7
103.0
0.086
0.532
0.450
0.383
6.0
.67
,66
,69
3.50
3.44
3.47
101.8
100.4
99.0
0.075
0.304
0.302
0.276
6.1
.64
.62
.59
3.29
3.33
3.30
96.5
94.9
92.4
0.106
0.269
0.258
0.305
6.3
0.078
0.319
0.317
0.318
6.2
July
August
1974
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September..
p67#.6
•••
rp69.0
October
November . .
December . .
.56
.54
1.53
3.29
3.17
3.08
90.8
r91.4
r91.6
pl.52
(NA)
2.97
(NA)
r90.8
p90.8
0.309
pO.336
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
96
DECEMBER 1975
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
D1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
D11. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board1
(17 industries)
1-quarter
span
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits, mfg.,
First National City
Bank (about 1,000
corporations)
1-quarter
span
4-quarter
span®
D19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks
(65-71 industries) 2 ®
1-month
span
9-month
span
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1973
82
January
February
March
52.4
92.9
52.4
52.4
33.3
35.7
65.7
61.4
80.0
90.0
85.7
91.4
April
May
June
45.2
31.0
19.0
26.2
59.5
69.0
61.4
54.3
51.4
85.7
82.9
July
August
September..,
52.4
35.7
85.7
28.6
26.2
23.8
45.7
51.4
50.0
80.0
62.9
68.6
59
October
23.8
73.8
42.9
23.8
35.7
9.5
62.9
55.7
34.3
82.9
74.3
68.6
59
26.2
59.5
42.9
35.7
7.1
7.1
65.7
57.1
60.0
82.9
85.7
71.4
47
April
May
June
7.1
92.9
35.7
4.8
0.0
11.9
57.1
65.7
47.1
74.3
68.6
60.0
59
July
21.4
47.6
23.8
4.8
4.8
47.6
60.0
45.7
40.0
45.7
14.3
14.3
53
38.1
9.5
23.8
0.0
4.8
9.5
45.7
18.6
17.1
11.4
5.7
18.6
35
19.0
11.9
33.3
0.0
23.8
19.0
48.6
51.4
34.3
17.1
25
31
47
,
61.9
47.6
81.0
59.5
r64.3
r64.3
77.1
42.9
54.3
45.7
60.0
r65.7
r59
July
August
,
September..,
78.6
90.5
r78.6
p85.7
74.3
47.1
51.4
p82.9
P47
October
November . . ,
December . . ,
r64-3
P59.5
November . . .
December . . .
53
94
76
82
65
62
78
26.8
14.5
19.6
26.5
19.1
25.0
84.6
84.6
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
77
21.7
14.7
15.4
19.1
17.6
30.9
61.5
80.8
76.9
92,
92,
92.
74
66.2
41.9
88.2
23.9
16.4
26.9
73.1
65.4
46.2
92,
69,
76.9
75
89.0
7.5
13.4
35.8
53.7
35.8
46.2
69.2
69.2
100.0
84.6
76.9
71
85.8
50.7
91.0
28.8
10.6
6.1
84.6
69.2
53.8
69.2
76.9
61.5
59
9.7
27.3
39.4
6.1
10.6
4.6
61.5
38.5
53.8
61.5
46.2
46.2
4.5
7.6
1.5
4.6
51
3.1
10.8
38.5
46.2
42.3
46.2
23.1
23.1
50
66.2
70.8
9.2
23.1
38.5
70.8
19.2
23.1
7.7
23.
23
23.1
58
95.4
93.8
86.2
62.0
98.5
100.0
53.8
42.3
38.5
11.5
15.4
15.4
53
69.2
61.0
70.8
95.4
93.8
89.2
46.2
38.5
61.5
38.5
61.5
61.5
71
64.6
6.2
40.0
80.8
57.7
65.4
76.9
61
55
60
1974
January
February
March
,
August
September...
October
November . .
December . .
59
59
47
15
59
58
58
40
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
62.9
P51.4
12
P41
48
70.8
64.6
3
53.8
53.8
46.2
42.3
3
53.8
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are considered rising.) Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 3-quarter indexes on the 1st month of the 3d quarter, and 4-quarter
indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in D19, which requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted as an index (1-quarter span only).
Table E4 identifies the components for many of the indexes shown. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® .
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
•"•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Based on 71 components in January 1973, on 69 components through April 1973, on 68 components through October 1973, on 67 components through April 131J+, on 66 components through September 1974, and on 65 components thereafter. Component data are not
shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency. 3Average for December 2, 9, and 16.
2
ltd!
DECEMBER 1975
97
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1^DIFFUSION INDEXES-Cor
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
1.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
D41. Number of employees
on nonagriculural payrolls
(30 industries)
D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1973
January
February
March
67.0
74.5
3.6.2
68.1
66.0
74.5
68.3
86.7
86.7
85.0
83.3
85.0
79.2
91.7
62.5
83.3
79.2
83.3
95.5
97.7
95.5
100.0
95.5
95.5
87.0
76.1
65.2
100.0
97.8
95.7
April
May
June
53.2
36.2
57.4
38.3
68.1
57.4
63.3
65.0
76.7
83.3
76.7
70.0
50.0
77.1
54.2
79.2
77.1
79.2
95.5
90.9
84.I
95.5
95.5
95.5
30.4
69.6
56.5
100.0
100.0
87.0
July
August
September
63.8
46.8
44.7
57.4
8.5
8.5
65.0
65.0
56.7
68.3
81.7
83.3
70.8
70.8
62.5
79.2
70.8
54.2
75.0
91.0
77.3
90.9
95.5
95.5
73.9
34.8
73.9
69.6
47.8
91.3
October
November
December
46.8
72.3
2.1
38.3
29.8
23.4
76.7
76.7
68.3
83.3
76.7
75.0
45.8
62.5
45.8
45.8
35.4
45.8
79.5
86.4
90.9
95.5
90.9
90.9
65.2
56.5
43.5
87.0
95.7
87.0
January
February
March
53.2
83.0
40.4
19.1
14.9
34.0
53.3
66.7
46.7
46.7
35.4
37.5
64.6
39.6
33.3
52.1
90.9
95.5
88.6
95.5
95.5
95.5
78.3
60.9
78.3
91.3
78.3
91.3
April
May
June
51.1
56.4
43.3
34.0
12.8
55.3
44.7
47.9
70.8
50.0
54.2
41.7
41.7
91.0
84.I
81.8
95.5
90.9
90.9
47.8
60.9
39.1
91.3
87.0
78.3
July
August
September
75.5
48.9
28.7
31.3
12.5
10.4
81.8
77.3
68.2
77.3
72.7
72.7
95.7
52.2
60.9
52.2
50.0
60.9
October
November
December
1974
a.7
48.3
41.7
48,3
48.3
a.7
0.0
6.4
8.5
60.0
55.0
51.7
46.7
33.3
18.3
39.6
37.5
52.1
46.8
8.5
53.2
2.1
4-3
2.1
35.0
10.0
16.7
21.7
15.0
10.0
33.3
20.8
8.3
12.5
12.5
8.3
72.7
68.2
65.9
72.7
68.2
68.2
43.5
21.7
52.2
82.6
65.2
60.9
January
February
March
55.3
29.8
55.3
6.4
12.8
36.2
13.3
13.3
20.0
10.0
11.7
15.0
16.7
27.1
20.8
12.5
10.4
29.2
63.6
63.6
59.1
68.2
72.7
72.7
73-9
67.4
34.8
78.3
87.0
82.6
April
May
June
44.7
66.0
46.8
68.1
68 1
57.4
43.3
66.7
38*3
35.0
53.3
73.3
58.3
47.9
75.0
50.0
54.2
75.0
70.5
63.6
68.2
77.3
75.0
81.8
67.4
89.1
65.2
100.0
95.7
r95.7
July
August
September
68.1
42.6
31.9
80.9
80.0
p80.0
79.2
r79.2
r95.8
r83.3
p87.5
75.0
88.6
90.9
90.9
90.9
45.7
60.9
r54.3
p87.0
October
November
December
61.7
61.7
65.0
81.7
r85.O
r73.3
P55.O
50.0
1975
r56.3
p52.1
86.4
77.3
r54.3
P54.3
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by © .
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
1
Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
98
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1975
Diffusion index components
April
May
August
July
June
September
Octoberr
NovemberP
D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
39.1
39.0
39.3
39.4
39.7
Percent rising of 21 components
(62)
(48)
(81)
(79)
(90)
(79)
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products..
Furniture and fixtures
a.3
38.8
37.2
41.1
38.8
37.5
41.6
39.0
37.6
40.1
39.1
37.8
41.2
39.5
38.3
+ r41.7
+ r39.6
+ r38.9
+
+
41.5
39.9
39.0
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
40.3
39.7
40.2
39.5
40.3
39.6
40.6
39.7
40.7
39.9
+ r40.8
o r39.9
o
o
40.8
39.9
41.0
40.1
Fabricated metal products..
Machinery, except electrical
39.7
41.0
39.
40.
39.5
40.4
39.5
40.5
40.0
40.8
+ r40.2
- 40.7
40.3
40.7
40.4
40.7
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
39.4
40.5
39.
39.
39.3
40.0
39.5
40.7
39.6
41.2
o 39.6
- r40.9
39.6
40.5
39.8
40.3
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
39.2
38.1
39.3
38.1
39.4
38.3
+
-
39.7
38.1
39.5
38.2
+ r39.7
+ 38.7
39.8
38.8
40.0
38.7
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
39.9
38.3
39.9
36.9
39.9
39.8
+
-
40.7
37.6
r40.9
r38.0
40.5
37.5
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
37.7
34.3
38.9
34-4
39.2
35.2
40.1
35.4
39.6
35.2
40.4
35.5
40.9
r36.0
41.1
36.1
40.5
40.3
40.8
36.0
Paper and allied products..
Printing and publishing . . .
40.4
36.8
40.9
36.7
41.5
36.7
41.6
36.7
42.1
37.1
+ 42.2
- r36.9
42.4
37.0
42.7
37.3
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products .
40.3
41.0
40.6
40.7
41.2
40.9
41.3
41.1
41.0
41.3
r41.6
41-3
41.7
41.7
41.6
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c.
Leather and leather products
39.0
36.5
39.6
36.5
39.6
37.5
40.0
37.8
40.1
38.0
r40.1
38.4
40.0
38.9
39.8
38.5
- 42,227
+ 42,393
- 41,874
(47)
(51)
(63)
(51)
6,909
5,179
6,929
5,809
- 6,265
+ 5,196
+ 6,877
+ 5,282
-
+ 7,120
- 5,144
+ 7,425
+ 5,510
+ 7,859
+ 5,698
+
+
-
- 8,657
+ 8,393
+
39.8
+
39.9
-
39.8
(60)
(64)
Durable goods industries:
o
-
+
+
+
+
+
o
42.1
40.0
39.0
Nondurable goods industries:
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS'NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
+ 38,983
+ 39,428
+ 39,730
+ 41,681
(77)
(43)
(54)
(74)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products...
+ 5,395 + 5,863
+ 4,813 + 4,844
+ 5,887
- 4,700
+ 6,189
+ 5,111
Machinery, except electrical .
Electrical machinery
+ 6,946 + 7,117
+ 5,316 - 5,183
-
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+ 8,738 + 8,769
+ 7,775 - 7,652
+ 9,194
+ 7,832
Percent rising of 35 components
6,984
5,133
+
+
+ 42,6
7,368
5,279
+
+
+
9,793
7,941
- 9,758
+ 8,104
2
9,982
8,520
9,159
8,140
6,157
5,110
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
ltd*
DECEMBER 1975
99
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975
Diffusion index components
April
May
July
June
August
September
October
November
December
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price index (1967=100)
+ 186.4- - 184.2 - 173.2 - 171.5 + 179.6
184.2 - 181.9 - 179.8
180.6
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap
Lead scrap
Steel scrap
Tin
Zinc
Burlap
Cotton, 12-market average
Print cloth, average
Wool tops
Hides
Rosin
Rubber
Tallow
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(U.S. ton).
(metric ton).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(100 pounds).
(100 kilograms).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
-
(46)
(38)
0.399
0.880
0.384
0.847
0.073
0.161
76.961
84.834
3.298
7.271
0.378
0.833
0.198
0.217
- 0.081
0.179
+ 84.830
93.508
- 3-382
7.456
- 0.376
0.829
- 0.210
0.230
+ 0.424
0.935
+ 0.590
0.645
- 1.849
4.076
+ 0.227
0.500
0.431
0.950
0.581
0.635
2.143
4.724
0.255
0.562
39.068
86.129
0.275
0.606
0.123
0.271
- 40.972
90.327
+ 0.291
0.642
+ 0.116
0.256
(62)
-
O.366
0.807
- 0.050
0.110
- 70.675
77.905
+ 3.391
7.476
+ 0.383
0.844
+ 0.200
0.219
+ 0.438
0.966
+ 0.592
0.647
- 2.044
4.506
+ 0.259
0.571
- 30.461
67.154
+ 0.289
0.637
+ 0.127
0.280
(58)
(65)
(77)
0.418
0.922
0.051
0.112
58.448
64.427
3.336
7.355
0.387
0.853
0.183
0.200
0.446
+ 0.445
0.981
+ 0.066
0.146
0.452
0.996
0.081
0.179
81.303
89.620
3.229
7.119
0.395
0.871
0.180
0.197
0.505
1.113
0.584
0.639
2.358
5.198
0.253
0.558
28.817
63.530
0.319
0.703
0.155
0.342
0.983
0.581
0.635
2.119
4.672
0.269
0.593
29.849
65.805
0.315
0.694
. 0.127
0.280
+ 70.794
78.036
o 3.336
7.355
+ 0.390
0.860
- 0.177
0.194
+ 0.472
1.041
+ 0.588
0.643
+ 2.318
5.110
- 0.254
0.560
- 26.614
63.082
- 0.305
0.672
+ 0.143
0.315
(42)
(46)
+
~
+
+
0.432
0.952
0.085
0.187
68.088
75.053
3.355
7.396
0.405
0.893
-
0.422
0.930
-
0.076
0.168
- 63-918
70.457
o 3.355
7.396
-
0.398
0.877
-• 0.177 + 0.182
0.194
0.496
1.093
0.593
0.649
2.402
5.295
0.286
0.6.31
28.643
63.146
0,301
O.664
0.141
0.311
0.199
+ 0.520
1.146
- 0.576
0.630
+ 2.498
5.507
- 0.275
0.606
- 28.614
63.082
+ 0.319
0.703
+ 0.149
0.328
+ 77,023 + r77,310 + r77,508
+ 77,549
+
+
+
-
(54)
0.430
0.948
0.072
0.159
64.128
70.688
3.121
6.881
0.396
0.873
0.177
0.194
0.551
1.215
0.561
0.614
2-531
5.580
0.276
0.608
28.730
63.338
0.304
0.670
0.169
0.373
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
o 76,462
+ 76,510
76,343
+ 76,679
(43)
(67)
(38)
(65)
(82)
84
454
354
479
905
985
1,339
1,113
1,151
287
303
82
459
351
477
889
979
1,317
1,106
1,155
286
303
81
463
355
477
878
960
1,300
1,097
1,143
287
307
77
469
366
483
892
993
1,300
1,131
1,142
286
311
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products . .
Miscellaneous manufacturing
o
+
+
84
444
349
478
923
992
1,372
1,123
1,126
291
301
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
o
+
+
(85)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
75
475
379
r488
r9ll
rl,000
rl,314
rl,139
rl,140
291
r315
o
+
+
+
4+
+
+
-
(73)
(55)
75
479
r380
r487
r894
rl,004
rl,321
rl,154
rl,155
r294
r313
73
472
382
489
896
998
1,312
1,156
1,170
293
312
+
+
+
+
+
1,145
1,131 + 1,147 + rl,150 + rl,156 1,133 66
65 +
65
65 o
68
62 +
800
777 +
r8l9 +
832
r833
+
771 +
1,071 o 1,071
1,086 + rl,105 +
1,106
+
• 1,043 +
487 +
r490 +
479
493
474
469 +
628
632 632
r629
629
631
566
r573 +
577
r578
560
+
560 o
130
128
rl28 +
127
129 +
+
125 +
453
+
r471
439
+
+
468
436 +
220
226 4- r230 +
+
+
219
215 +
231
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products .
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c..
Leather and leather products
+
1,125
62
745
1,020
471
639
558
121
430
209
+
o
+
+
+
1,131
62
766
1,033
472
636
562
123
436
212
•'•Average for December 2, 9, and 16.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
100
DECEMBER 1975
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975
Diffusion index components
April
May
July
June
September1"
August
October1"
November*3
774
763
3,409
4,478
4,181
12,844
4,254
14,183
2,769
12,171
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS-Con/
(Thousands of employees)
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate . . .
Service
Federal Government
State and local government
732
3,441
4,508
4,176
12,671
4,209
13,878
2,731
11,961
738
3,439
4,491
4,175
12,682
4,208
13,889
2,732
11,994
752
3,432
4,467
4,181
12,864
4,239
14,113
2,765
12,080
749
3,415
4,466
4,159
12,857
4,218
14,050
2,756
12,099
743
3,395
4,464
4,161
12,823
4,203
13,990
2,745
12,071
741
3,392
4,469
4,153
12,724
4,202
13,871
2,738
11,953
+
- 3,404
+ 4,473
o 4,182
- 12,855
+ 4,248
+ 14,151
+ 2,767
+ 12,159
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)
-
All industrial production
2
110.1 +
111.1
(58)
(48)
(75)
95.0
112.4
89.9
110.9
91.8
110.9
116.9
104.0
84.7
131.1
113.7
103.8
87.6
129.7
105.'4
104.1
+
112.2 + r l U . 2
+
+
116.8
116.1
+ 116.6
(56)
(52)
(79)
(79)
(96)
+
-
92.8
109.7
96.5
112.7
96.7
116.1
-
96.6
115.3
96.5
115.9
112.3
103.8
90.5
130.9
+
+
+
112.9
103.4 + rlO4.4
92.9
91.0 +
132.4 - rl32.1
116.5
105.5
94.9
134.5
+ 117.2
+ 107.3
- 94.8
118.0
109.0
104.7
108.0
105.1
110.3
+
+
106.2 + rlO8.3
112.0 + 1-114.5
111.7
114.9
- 133.9
+ 111.8
- 113.6
105.6
128.5
109.6
129.0
107.9
131.1
+
+
109^4 +
131.8 +
rlO9.6
rl35.3
110.0
136.7
+ 137.6
100.4
88.2
68.0
103.8
90.9
70.0
106.9
91.5
71.2
110.7
92.9
73.5
+
+
-
rll5.0
r95.8
r71.7
121.2
96.1
81.2
106.7
122.4
(NA)
83.3
105.8
100.2
105.8
102.6
109.5
105.9
+
-
111.7
104.4
-I+
116.4
rlO7.1
121.2
107.2
126.9
107.8
132.8
120.2
133.5
135.7
118.5
132.7
138.2
122.4
140.1
+
+
+
143.4 + rH6.3
124.6 + rl26.7
141.6 + 1-147.8
149.3
127.0
151.8
122.9
115.9
123.8 +
103.8 -
125.1
102.2
+
+
126.3 +
104.8 +
rl26.7
105.7
126.9
109.3
150.6
126.9
151.3
126.0
127.4
(NA)
+
112.2 +
106.6 -
113.6 +
104.5 +
120.4
105.5
+
-
120.6
104.5
r-105.7 +
104.2 +
113.6
104.8
+ 114.6
o 104.8
+
-
125.8
104.7 -
114.8
100.4
110.6
95.3
+
110.3
101.4
rll9.2 r98.9 +
118.2
99.5
+ 118.3
99.1
Percent rising of 24 components .
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products..
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals .
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals . . . .
109.9 +
94.7
135.4
113.4
(NA)
(NA)
122.5
(NA)
(NA)
106.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
116.2
(NA)
106.9
147.6
151.4
127.6
(NA)
126.1
127.4
(NA)
118.5
103.9
107.6
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
2
ItCIt
DECEMBER 1975
101
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975
Diffusion index components
April
May
August
September
October
November
49,655
+ 49,925
r49,549
r5O,191
+ 50,705
(46)
(61)
(54)
(54)
(54)
+
10,531
- 10,429
+
3,933
5,017
510
+
3,901
5,201
509
- rlO,217
r3,940
r5,l62
r534
+ 10,523
+
4,129
- 4,999
522
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
728
511
876
34A
+
+
+
+
799
523
948
353
r773
r501
r879
r353
760
502
889
340
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1,280
688
1,515
478
+
-
1,277
711
1,505
472
rl,280
r735
rl,574
r490
+
1,300
725
1,605
490
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
8,120
751
3,832
1,526
929
r7,936
r763
r3,803
rl,525
r936
+
8,233
751
3,719
1,526
932
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July
June
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales
46,813
+ 48,173
+ 48,578
(67)
(89)
(65)
9,846
3,898
4,825
476
+ 10,105
+ 3,935
+ 5,094
+
482
+ 10,255
+ 3,984
5,081
+
496
746
506
819
337
+
o
+
+
788
506
854
356
+
+
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores . .
Lumber yards, building materials dealers.
Hardware stores
1,244
686
1,415
468
+
+
+
1,216
716
1,517
489
+
+
-
1,245
723
1,515
484
+
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
7,164
737
3,532
1,455
884
+
+
+
+
+
7,508
755
3,565
1,499
919
+
+
+
+
+
7,654
793
3,616
1,532
941
+
+
2
Percent rising of 23 components
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise)
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
774
517
863
346
+
+
o
+
-
8,082
768
3,790
1,525
927
o
+
+
+
o
+
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 3
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables.
Nonmetallic minerals products . . .
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment.
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products.
+
168.7
(70)
174.9
138.5
173.0
201.1
172.2
188.
180.
176.
160,
139,
143.
147.3
179.4
158.1
103.5
121.7
133.0
169.7
182.4
243.6
149.4
147.5
169.5
(64)
+
+
+
+
+
170.1
(68)
171.4
(75)
172.3
(89)
173.0
179.9
140.1
176.1
200.4
170.8
189.2
182.2
181.3
I65.I
141.8
143.9
148.2
+
+
+
-
186.1
171.4
108.5
129.9
133.1
170.3
182.2
272.1
150.8
151.3
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
183.0
138.6
173.1
200.6
171.1
188.8
179.4
177.6
+
+
+
+
181.0
139.0
173.3
199.4
169.1
188.6
181.7
178.2
179.6
139.2
174-7
197.3
167.7
188.5
182.2
179.6
161.4
140.1
142.9
147.5
+ 161.5
+ 140.4
+ U3.1
o 147.5
161.9
140.8
143.1
147.7
179.7
139.8
175.8
198.4
169-3
189.1
182.2
180.1
163.1
140.9
143.5
147.8
179.0
162.6
107.0
123.0
132.2
169.8
182.1
246.1
148.9
147.7
179.7
164.3
107.5
124.6
132.5
169.8
181.2
252.2
148.6
148.7
I84.6
167.4
107.8
127.3
132.4
170.0
181.4
258.8
150.1
149.3
186.3
169.4
108.5
128.8
132.8
170.0
182.1
268.6
150.0
149.3
174.5
(86)
(91)
179.1
141.1
177.1
204.7
170.7
190.2
182.4
181.8
-
-
174-4
(77)
178.3
+
141-5
+
-
177.7
204.1
170.1
190.0
182.6
182.8
165.9
142.3
150.0
147.6
166.7
143.1
150.6
148.6
186.2
182.8
114-9
132.3
133.6
170.9
182.3
274-2
151.5
152.4
182.6
188.3
115.6
134-3
171.3
182.9
275.0
151.8
154.4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
3
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
102
DECEMBER 1975
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
CONSUMER PRICES
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices©
136. France,
index of
consumer
prices©
138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices©
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices©
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
127
128
130
122
123
124
139
142
142
120
123
124
150
151
146
145
148
148
131
133
134
124
125
126
142
142
121
121
122
144
153
151
141
142
143
150
151
155
135
136
137
127
126
127
143
139
142
123
123
123
153
153
150
132
133
134
145
146
147
154
156
160
138
139
141
127
128
126
144
146
146
125
123
119
153
154
148
161
163
165
135
137
137
150
152
153
167
173
174
144
147
149
125
125
125
148
149
150
113
115
119
157
157
153
140
143
144
170
173
175
138
139
139
156
158
159
179
179
181
151
154
157
125
126
126
148
147
147
121
121
122
154
158
156
148
150
152
146
147
148
176
176
177
139
140
140
161
163
165
184
185
189
160
163
168
126
125
126
146
146
145
123
123
121
161
161
152
153
154
155
149
151
152
182
185
188
141
142
142
167
168
169
193
194
195
171
174
176
125
122
117
145
143
142
120
120
118
152
146
142
January
February
March
156
157
158
153
154
155
192
196
200
144
144
145
171
173
174
196
196
198
178
181
181
114
111
110
139
140
139
119
119
116
143
143
139
April
May
June
159
159
161
156
157
159
207
216
220
146
147
148
176
177
178
203
205
205
183
185
186
110
110
111
139
138
139
114
112
112
139
134
rl41
July
August
September...
162
163
164
162
163
163
222
224
226
148
148
149
179
181
182
206
205
209
187
188
190
112
114
116
138
138
pl36
112
111
pll2
137
137
pl36
October
November . . ,
December . . .
165
166
(NA)
(NA)
149
(NA)
(NA)
212
(NA)
(NA)
rll7
pll7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®
133. Canada, 132. United
Kingdom,
index of
index of
consumer
consumer
prices©
prices©
1967=100)
(1967=100)
January
February
March
128
129
130
125
126
126
144
144
145
126
127
128
136
136
137
138
140
143
April
May
June
131
132
132
128
129
130
148
149
150
129
129
130
138
139
140
July
August
September...
133
135
136
131
133
133
151
151
152
130
130
131
October
November . . .
December . . .
137
138
138
134
135
136
155
157
158
January
February
March
HO
142
H3
137
138
139
April
May
June
144
146
147
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . ,
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
1973
1974
1975
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
DECEMBER 1975
103
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
JJlNDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Con.
125. West
Germany,
'ndex of
'ndustrial
production
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
I M s T O C K PRICES
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
121.0ECD,1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices©
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices©
146. France, 145. West
index of
Germany,
stock
index of
prices®
stock
prices®
148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®
147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
150
156
151
186
186
193
142
144
142
124
123
123
129
124
122
146
145
143
182
168
164
174
173
185
139
136
142
387
364
363
83
84
93
April
May
June
153
152
154
190
196
197
142
144
145
132
134
138
120
117
114
142
135
135
168
167
171
191
196
190
142
130
128
344
339
338
97
109
125
July
August
September
147
154
156
197
200
201
144
146
147
141
131
139
115
113
115
141
144
146
161
156
154
183
179
180
120
119
116
355
351
333
118
105
107
October
November
December
155
156
156
205
207
203
148
148
146
141
139
138
119
111
103
153
148
134
159
151
126
183
166
166
118
112
106
325
313
285
109
108
97
154
153
152
202
202
199
147
147
147
148
143
144
104
102
106
139
141
146
126
124
116
173
167
153
110
110
108
293
308
304
106
108
112
152
152
153
196
200
189
148
148
150
148
145
147
101
98
98
136
123
122
112
112
103
145
134
134
112
112
108
305
303
306
116
106
97
July
August
September
150
149
151
191
183
183
148
146
147
144
131
145
90
83
74
118
113
101
94
82
74
135
125
106
103
104
295
270
261
90
88
76
October
November
December
149
148
142
180
175
169
145
142
137
138
130
124
76
78
73
101
97
93
71
65
58
114
113
117
97
101
239
245
255
74
79
72
January
February
March
140
142
144
162
160
160
137
138
137
129
132
126
79
87
91
103
112
109
69
99
109
177
134
144
105
112
120
250
271
284
71
79
82
April
May
June
136
141
138
165
166
169
135
133
135
128
120
127
92
98
101
112
115
116
115
126
127
155
142
139
124
119
114
290
298
297
78
77
73
July
August
September
132
140
pl40
173
pl70
(NA)
132
128
114
pl27
101
118
115
pill
144
150
pl45
116
293
280
271
66
92
119
115
128
117
rl32
October
November
December
(NA)
(NA)
96
plO7
rplO8
plO6
119
rpl25
p!27
p287
rp294
p290
p6l
rp64
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
...
.
...
99
96
1975
(NA)
93
QCJ
9o
P96
pl32
pl44
pl41
pl39
rpl49
pl48
120
64
64
P67
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except thoseseries that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
104
DECEMBER 1975
ItCII
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
I/C
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1.
*5.
*6.
8.
9.
*10.
*12.
13.
14.
*17.
Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Average initial claims, State unemployment insurance
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, total value
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures©
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
53-May 73
53-Apr. 73
53-May 73
53-Apr. 73
*19.
*23.
24.
28.
*29.
*41.
42.
46.
*47.
48.
Stock prices, 500 common stocks©
Industrial materials prices®
New orders, capital goods industries, nondefense
New private housing units started, total
New building permits, private housing
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
53-May
53-May
53-May
59-Apr.
53-July
53-May
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-May
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
50.
*52.
53.
*54.
55.
*56.
58.
59.
*62.
65.
Number of job vacancies, manufacturing
Personal income
Wages, salaries in mining, manufacturing, construction
Sales of retail stores, current dollars
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities®
Manufacturing and trade sales
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
0.16
1.97
1.30
1.52
1.23
1.42
.57
.95
2.10
.23
2.65
2.12
2.21
4.21
7.31
3.12
1.14
2.36
11.20
2.10
0.89
.76
.71
.88
.55
0.43
4.18
2.88
6.39
9.00
4.41
.65
2.24
23.49
.49
C1)
.81
.63
.83
C1)
.85
1.98
2.49
1.38
4.31
6.23
4.21
.29
.33
2.70
.88
.41
1.71
.90
3.91
5.83
3.65
.13
.25
1.65
.49
.28
1.61
.97
1.53
1.71
1.83
.26
.20
1.98
.69
.28
1.07
.93
2.56
3.41
2.00
.50
1.23
.83
.71
1.00
.61
.93
.87
.84
.98
.50
.63
.83
.71
.53
2.46
.90
.85
.90
.95
.98
2.41
3.16
3.86
3.09
69-Apr. 73
53-June 73
53-June 73
53-Apr. 73
53-Apr. 73
53-June 73
53-Apr. 73
53-Apr. 73
53-June 73
53-Apr. 73
4.56
.60
.81
.97
.21
1.00
.24
.93
.57
.60
1.99
.25
.47
.80
.11
.71
.14
.80
.47
.29
3.88
.54
.63
.52
.18
.63
.19
.41
.27
.51
.51
.47
.75
1.53
.61
1.13
.75
1.96
1.73
.56
.51
.47
.75
.85
.61
.59
.75
.73
.99
.56
5.33
5.98
3.18
2.15
4.96
2.45
4.26
1.88
2.09
3.52
Jan. 53-Mar. 73
.82
.13
.81
.16
.16
11.52
53-Apr. 73
53-May 73
53-July 73
53-Mar. 73
53-Apr. 73
53-June 73
0.47
4.74
3.27
6.67
9.10
4.70
.87
2.53
24.07
2.12
2.48
11.09
11.57
10.17
8.38
16.20
11.09
7.45
10.52
9.35
8.75
3.56
3.95
3.78
3.23
3.09
3.44
4.30
3.29
2.59
3.37
9.04
10.17
13.56
8.14
10.70
22.18
17.36
9.72
12.79
14.35
3.98
2.90
3.36
3.17
3.06
4.98
3.84
3.16
3.86
5.40
1.46
12.00
35.00
14.41
24.30
10.57
11.67
9.72
10.12
14.41
14.29
5.33
5.98
3.18
3.72
4.96
4.28
4.26
4.23
3.54
3.52
1.58
34.57
11.52
3.02
9.07
7.39
5.67
3.73
2.80
3.00
3.95
1.46
1.52
1.57
47
50
59
55
56
45
1.66
1.79
1.52
1.53
66. Consumer installment debt
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
* 7 1 . Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted
811. 12 leading indicators prior to reverse trend adjustment
813. Marginal employment adjustments
814. Capital investment commitments
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
53-Apr. 73
53-June 73
53-May 73
53-May 73
53-July 73
53-July 73
53-July 73
53-July 73
1.79
.54
.90
1.32
.99
.87
.89
.86
1.41
.18
.32
.51
.54
.53
.50
.67
1.02
.51
.83
1.18
.80
.67
.63
.49
1.38
.34
.38
.43
.67
.80
.80
1.37
.69
.34
.38
.43
.67
.80
.80
.65
1.94
9.07
7.39
5.67
3.73
2.80
3.00
2.08
1.48
11.57
35.00
16.27
15.25
13.67
13.67
9.11
11.71
815.
816.
817.
820.
825.
830.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
53-July
53-July
53-July
53-July
53-July
53-July
73
73
73
73
73
73
.87
.93
1.08
.90
.91
.93
.72
.55
.92
.40
.44
.31
.44
.70
.44
.78
.76
.88
1.63
.78
2.09
.52
.59
.35
.91
.78
.92
.52
.59
.35
2.22
3.51
2.14
5.47
5.23
9.11
1.70
1.68
1.65
1.57
1.46
1.53
9.46
10.25
9.11
18.92
18.92
22.36
3.06
3.51
4.00
5.47
5.23
9.11
.11
.14
6.13
12.19
5.62
4.11
11.42
23.45
18.68
17 .77
.18
.19
.06
.40
.56
.17
.12
.90
2.18
1.40
.61
.75
5.77
8.72
3.60
3.51
10.17
12.37
8.56
12.66
.61
.75
(*)
C1)
.91
.91
C1)
C1)
C1)
<*)
4.96
4.26
1.71
1.47
.65
.90
.52
.50
.46
1.57
1.66
1.68
1.60
1.42
1.46
1.74
1.54
1.48
1.42
1.51
10.57
9.72
8.14
11.09
10.20
10.06
6.56
8.24
9.31
11.00
4.96
4.26
3.02
2.39
2.72
3.57
2.06
2.16
2.24
2.31
17.05
.13
.17
.25
.49
1.05
.11
.27
.11
.08
1.47
.46
.16
.20
.37
.57
.21
.28
.17
.31
11.61
.29
1.04
1.21
1.33
1.86
.51
.93
.62
.26
1.50
(*)
.29 114.00
2.92
.54
2.89
.73
2.56
.80
1.99
.78
6.75
.51
.93
2.89
.62
4.40
.26 69.00
1.50
9.00
1.50 114.00
1.48 13.87
1.72 11.05
1.62 11.05
1.55
8.68
1.53 14.29
1.74
8.10
1.56 15.92
1.54 207.00
2.15
114.00
5.50
4.57
4.03
3.77
6.75
2.89
4.40
69.00
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
5 coincident indicators
5 coincident indicators, deflated
6 lagging indicators
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
55.
58.
502.
506.
508.
512.
616.
621.
625.
647.
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities®
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
Exports, excluding military aid
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
Military prime contract awards in U.S
New orders, defense products industries
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
July
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
59-Apr.
63-Mar.
57-Jan.
59-Apr.
53-Mar.
56-Mar.
53-Mar.
53-Apr.
73
73
73
73
74
73
73
73
73
72
648.
740.
741.
750.
751.
752.
781.
782.
783.
784.
New orders, defense products
Average hourly earnings of production workers
Real average hourly earnings of production workers
Wholesale prices, all commodities®
Wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
Wholesale prices, farm products
Consumer prices, all items®
Consumer prices, food
Consumer prices, commodities less foods
Consumer prices, services®
Feb.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
68-May
64-July
64-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
56-Apr.
56-Apr.
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
17.12
.46
.25
.33
.63
1.27
.24
.41
.21
. .31
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
105
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes—Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
T/c
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Continued
841.
842.
843.
859.
Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Real spendable average weekly earnings, nonagricultural
production or nonsupervisory workers
Jan. 53-Apr. 73
Jan. 53-Apr. 73
Jan. 53-Apr. 73
0.32
.34
3.46
0.28
.29
2.70
0.15
.18
1.87
1.84
1.61
1.45
0.65
.86
.78
2.11
2.27
2.17
1.52 20.25
1.52 24.30
1.54 9.00
4.63
3.32
3.32
Jan. 64-Apr. 73
.41
.37
.16
2.35
.86
1.95
1.66 13.87
3.52
.42
.84
.65
3.70
1.89
1.88
1.11
.87
.67
.73
.56
.87
2.78
2.17
2.79
2.43
1.55 10.65
1.64 13.50
1.49 9.72
1.58 9.72
5.06
4.02
4.32
2.43
2.42
1.68
2.76
1.80
2.01
2.50
2.15
1 .13
1 .43
1.52
1.36
1.17
1.18
80
40
41
95
78
61
1.01
.74
.91
.60
.95
.82
.56
.82
.84
.83
.60
.60
.71
.88
.92
.95
.70
.75
.63
4.23
2.65
3.29
2.71
3.21
2.73
4.94
8.96
15.19
12.74
11.52
26.78
4.10
2.90
3.34
3.49
2.46
2.65
3.59
34.43
9.64
16.00
21.91
18.54
18.46
16.13
22.00
11.05
8.34
9.31
9.64
16.13
9.04
9.04
6.97
8.13
8.71
7.39
7.74
5.53
5.83
8.24
6.13
7.00
10.48
10.48
20.17
14.18
12.68
34.29
7.27
3.74
4.26
3.49
4.48
5.04
4.76
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851.
852.
853.
860.
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods
Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
53-June
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
53-Apr.
73
73
73
73
.91
1.82
.99
5.25
.79
1.58
.72
3.21
Jan.
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan,
Jan
Jan
Jan,
Jan
53-Feb.
53-Feb.
53-Jan.
53-Feb.
53-Feb.
53-Jan.
53-Mar.
53-Mar.
53-Apr.
53-Mar.
53-Mar.
53-Feb.
53-Mar.
53-May
53-May
53-May
53-May
53-May
53-May
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
.94
10
00
37
64
69
59
.48
.29
.33
.49
.35
.77
3.22
2.73
3.21
3.86
3.51
3.75
.92
1.05
.96
1.27
1.64
1.57
1.32
.51
.34
.35
.47
.38
.76
2.54
2.19
2.10
3.24
2.82
2.45
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122.
123.
125.
126.
127.
128.
132.
133.
135.
136.
137.
138.
142.
143.
145.
146.
147.
148.
OECD European countries, industrial production
United Kingdom, industrial production
Canada, industrial production
West Germany, industrial production
France, industrial production
Italy, industrial production
Japan, industrial production
United Kingdom, consumer prices®
Canada, consumer prices®
West Germany, consumer prices®
France, consumer prices®
Italy, consumer prices®
Japan, consumer prices©
United Kingdom, stock prices ®
Canada, stock prices®
West Germany, stock prices @
France,stock prices®
Italy, stock prices©
Japan, stock prices®
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators. ©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
2.05
1.64
1.77
1.77
.81
.78
.85
.78
.88
1.68
* Not shown when MCD is " 6 /
Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as
Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
" C l " is the average month-to-month percentage change, without regard to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series (i.e., the series after adjustment for
measurable seasonal, trading-day, and holiday variations).
" C " is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average
of the seasonally adjusted series.
"T" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by dividing the cyclical
component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the
appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly
series. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD,
percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular component and the
cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month
spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the
shortest span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it
indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series become
dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an MCD
greater than " 5 " are shown as " 6 " .
106
" I / C " is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity
(large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. It is shownjor 1-month spans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is " 6 " , no I/C ratio is shown for the
MCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of smoothness and is
equal to the average number of consecutive monthly changes in the same
direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2
months, a change in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series Cl, irregular component I,
cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally
adjusted series.
A comparison of these ADR measures with the expected ADR of a random
series gives an indication of whether the changes approximate those of a random
series. Over 1-month intervals, the expected ADR of a random series is 1.5, and
the actual ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over
1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the expected
ADR is 2. For example, take the case of a series with ADR measures of 1.56 for
Cl, 1.45 for I, 8.71 for C, and 3.15 for MCD. The 1.56 for Cl indicates that
1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series reverse sign, on average, about
as often as expected in a random series. The 1.45 for I and 8.71 for C suggest
that the seasonally adjusted series has been separated into an essentially random
component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. The 3.15 for MCD indicates
that the MCD moving average of the seasonally adjusted data reverses direction,
on average, about every 3 months. Thus, for this series, month-to-month changes
in the MCD moving average usually reflect underlying short-term trend
movements while month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series
usually do not.
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability—Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Unit of
measure
Period
covered
Monthly series
I/C
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 Per 100
employees...
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 . . . d o
Ann. rate,
Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of
materials and supplies
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 bil.dol
Avg. weekly overtime hours, prod, workers, mfg. . . . Jan. 56-May 73 Hours
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries . Jan. 53-May 73 Bil.dol
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
3.
20.
21.
25.
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments
60 days or longer @
* 3 1 . Change in book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries®
33. Change in mortgage debt
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
*43. Unemployment rate, total
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate
85. Change in money supply (M1)
93. Free reserves®
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks (M2)
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
Jan. 53-June 73 bil.dol
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
Treasury bill rate®.
Treasury bond yields®
Corporate bond yields ©
Municipal bond yields®
Mortgage yields, residential®
0.17
0.05
3.13
0.81
2.04
1.52 11.05
3.24
.15
.13
.05
2.45
.86
2.34
1.52
9.35
5.02
1.50
.09
.52
1.48
.09
.50
.20
.04
.13
7.40
1.99
3.72
C1)
.65
.98
1.62
3.41
1.67
1.56 10.57
1.59 13.00
1.55
8.13
2.80
5.72
3.17
2.82
2.59
1.02
2.54
.83
1.81
1.60
9.35
3.65
4.14
4.10
.58
7.08
1.44
1.46 11.14
2.55
Jan. 53-Apr. 73 Pet. reporting .
Jan. 55-Feb. 73 Ann. rate,
bil.dol
3.48
2.82
1.87
1.51
.96
2.86
1.71
8.68
4.10
1.60
1.45
.51
2.85
.94
1.81
1.45
9.86
3.12
Pet. reporting .
Percent
...do
...do
...do
...do
3.04
.06
.14
.16
.07
.16
2.59
.06
.12
.13
.05
.09
1.34
.02
.07
.09
.05
.12
1.93
2.83
1.69
1.41
1.19
.77
.82
.64
.93
.75
.59
.77
2.29
1.92
3.00
2.61
4.96
4.42
1.77
7.59
7.14
8.42
9.00
6.57
7.59
3.89
3.13
3.89
4.10
7.81
4.42
3.16
85.78
.57
54.92
5.50
1.56
C1)
.95
1.48
2.03
1.43
6.26
1.56 10.17
2.69
3.16
2.47
.54
4.54
.98
1.66
1.52
6.59
2.47
1.76
1.64
.53
3.07
.88
1.93
1.55
6.96
3.17
3.23
1.33
3.16
1.25
.65
.39
4.85
3.19
C1)
.82
1.71
1.66
1.54
6.31
1.52 10.08
3.13
3.62
Jan.
Oct.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
53-Apr. 73
64-Feb. 73
55-Apr. 73
53-Apr. 73
53-Apr. 73
53-Apr. 73
Jan,
53-May
Jan.
53-May
Jan.
53-May
73 Ann. rate,
percent
3.16
73 Mil. dol
104.09
Ann. rate,
73 percent . . . .
2.54
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks
Jan.
and nonbank institutions (M3)
Jan.
112. Change in business loans
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
0.18
59-July 73 . . . d o . . .
53-July 73 Ann. rate,
bil.dol. .
Jan. 53-Mar. 73 . . . d o . . .
73
73
73
73
73
Percent
...do .
...do .
...do
...do
.19
.08
.13
.11
.05
.12
.06
.11
.09
.03
.13
.04
.07
.05
.05
.96
1.48
1.59
1.74
.56
.96
.70
.69
.79
.56
2.80
2.70
2.34
2.54
7.84
1.73
1.89
1.73
1.82
1.93
7.03
7.94
9.84
8.48
7.36
2.80
4.60
3.87
4.14
7.84
Merchandise trade balance
Jan. 58-Apr. 73
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Jan. 53-Apr. 73
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over
Jan. 53-Apr. 73
Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age . Jan. 53-Apr. 73
Unemployment rate, white
Jan. 54-Apr. 73
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Jan. 54-Apr. 73
Mil. dol.
Percent
...do .
...do .
...do .
...do .
115.81
.16
.21
.78
.16
.47
11.69
.12
.19
.74
.13
.45
22.71
.10
.08
.21
.08
.15
4.92
1.20
2.30
3.52
1.68
3.01
C1)
1.58
3.04
1.91
1.60
2.54
1.64
1.45
1.53
1.53
1.45
1.53
1.42
7.04
6.94
9.72
6.23
9.62
7.22
2.62
4.17
4.16
3.12
4.26
3.56
Jan.
Jan,
Jan,
Jan.
Jan.
53-July
53-July
53-July
53-July
53-Apr.
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500.
844.
845.
846.
847.
848.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators. ® Measures are based on unadjusted data,
average durations of run are for bimonthly spans.
1
Not shown when MCD is " 6 . "
.64
.81
.86
.84
.77
2
Bimonthly series; average changes, MCD, and
Brief Definitions of Measures Shown in Part 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This method is used for
series with zero or negative data and for other series where it seems appropriate,
such as series expressed in percent.
Thus, " C l " is the average month-to-month change in the seasonally adjusted
series. This average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in the
same unit of measure as the series itself.
" C " is the same for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series.
" I " is the same for the irregular component, which is determined by
subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part I.
107
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1975
Series
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
103.6 138.9
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations 1
143.9
109.5
92.7
108.5
93.6
107.0
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
manufacturing 2
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index,
manufacturing 3
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 4
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing 3
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
616. Defense Department obligations, total
107.3
97.0
79.9
86.4
115.0
83.5
74.2
83.6
105.6
104.8
105.4
90.9
92.9
101.4
107.5
83.6
99.2
98.2
97.3
99.0
99.2
99.8
99.9
100.8
101.1
100.9
101.1
100.4
99.9
98.9
98.6
-939
-1206
-349
-114
287
910
752
885
-36
-315
-427
510
98.7
102.5
107.9
107.9
104.4
103.8
103.3
101.5
93.0
89.5
98.0
100.4
100.8
100.4
100.3
99.8
99.2
99.5
99.5
99.9
99.9 100.3
98.9
98.8
99.8
101.0
101.2
100.9
101.0
100.5
100.0
99.6
98.9
99.0
107.8
91.5
91.0
92.9
81.6
129.8
113.5
107.9
98.9
104.7
92.6
87.3
133.1
104.0
84.9
80.5
62.0
164.0
72.8
88.9
98.1
112.3
107.0
91.4
96.6
83.3
93.2
70.7
69.1
175.6
113.9
104.4
103.2
107.2
90.8
90.6
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
625. Military prime contract awards in U.S
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 5
-8
18
-13
3
NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., rather than by the source agency. Seasonal adjustments
are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in Business Conditions Digest whenever they are available. Fora description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
This series is derived from seasonally adjusted components; it is further adjusted by these factors to remove residual seasonal variation.
4
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are
computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
5
1-quarter diffusion index; factors are placed in the first month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and these factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11
variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
2
3
108
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
1
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
1
AVERAGE. WORKWEEH CF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(HOURS)
II Q
IIIQ
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PtRIOU
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
45.3
40.6
40.5
40.4
39.3
39.7
40,9
40.6
41.0
39.5
45.4
40.4
40.4
40.2
39.4
39.7
40.8
40.7
40.9
39.7
45.2
40.5
40.3
40.3
39.0
39.7
41.0
40.6
41.1
39.4
45.1
40.4
40.2
40.2
38.6
40.1
41.2
40.1
41.0
39.4
44.3
39.9
40.6
40.3
38.8
40.2
40.9
40.4
40.9
39.5
44.5
39.8
40.3
40.2
38.9
40.5
40.7
40.5
40.7
39.5
44.3
39.8
40.1
40.0
39.1
40.9
40.6
40.2
40.6
39.6
40.6
40.5
40.0
40.1
39.1
41.1
40.3
40.5
40.5
39.7
41.7
40.5
40.5
39.8
39.5
40.7
40.4
41.1
39.7
39.5
41.4
40.3
40.4
39.8
39.5
40.9
40.1
41.1
40.1
39.6
41.1
40.2
40.6
39.8
39.1
41.1
40.4
41.0
39.7
40,1
41.1
40.5
40.7
39.5
39.3
40.9
40.6
41.1
39.6
40.0
45.3
40.6
40.4
40.3
39.2
39.7
40.9
40.6
41.0
39.5
44.6
40.0
40.4
40.2
38.6
40.3
40.9
40.3
40.9
39.5
42.3
40.3
40.2
40.0
39.2
40.9
40.4
40.6
40.3
39.6
41.2
40.3
40.6
39.7
39.3
41.0
40.4
41.1
39. 8
39.9
43.5
40.3
40.4
40.0
39.1
40.5
40.6
40.7
40.5
39.6
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
40.3
40.8
40.4
38.8
40.1
40.5
39.2
40.0
40.4
40,5
40,6
40.4
38.7
40.2
40.1
39.3
40.3
40.3
40.6
40.6
40.4
40.3
38.7
40.4
39.9
39.3
40.5
40.4
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.2
38.6
40.6
39.7
39.6
40.7
40.2
40.8
41.0
40.2
39.8
36.7
40.5
40.0
39.7
40.5
40.5
40.7
40.6
40.1
39.9
39.1
40.5
39.9
39.8
40.4
40.5
40.6
40.3
39.9
39.2
40.2
39.9
40.0
40.5
40.5
40.7
40.5
40.0
39.8
39.4
40.3
39.6
40.0
40.3
40.4
40.7
40.5
39.7
39.6
40.1
39.4
39.6
40.6
40.6
40.9
40.5
39.3
39.5
40.1
39.6
40.3
40.2
40.7
41.0
40.3
39.1
39.8
39.9
39.3
40.6
40.4
40.4
40.9
40.6
39.0
39.8
40.1
38.3
40.3
40.2
40.6
40.5
40.6
40.4
38.7
40.2
40.2
39.3
40.3
40.4
40.7
40.3
40.0
38.*
40.5
39.9
39.7
40.5
40.4
40.5
40.3
39.0
39.4
40.2
39.6
39.9
40. 5
40.5
40.9
40.5
39.1
39.7
40.0
39.1
40.4
40.3
40.6
40 • 9
40.7
40.4
39.3
39.2
40.3
39.7
39.8
40.4
<*U.5
40.7
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
41.1
41.4
41.0
40.3
40.7
40.4
40.0
40.3
40.5
40.5
41.3
41.7
40.3
41.1
40.4
40.2
39.6
40.5
41,0
40.4
41,4
41.5
40,4
40.7
40.8
40.1
39.6
40.4
40.9
40.4
41.0
41.5
40.5
40.1
40.7
39.9
39.7
40.7
40.9
39.3
41.2
41.5
40.4
40.9
40.7
39.8
40.0
40.5
40.7
40.3
41.1
41.4
40.4
40.9
40.7
39.9
40.0
40.7
40.7
40.2
41.1
41.3
40.5
40.9
40.6
40.1
40.0
40.6
40.6
40.2
41.1
41.4
40.7
40.7
40.6
39.8
39.8
40.6
40.5
40.1
40.9
41.3
40.8
40.9
40.7
39.2
39.4
40.6
40.6
39.9
41.2
41.2
40.7
40.9
40.6
39.5
39.9
40.7
40.6
40.0
41.3
41.2
40.7
40.7
40.4
39.6
40.1
40.8
40.6
39.5
41.4
40.9
40.7
40.7
40.6
39.6
40.2
40.7
40.7
39.4
41.3
41.5
40.6
40.7
40.6
40.2
39.9
40.4
40.6
40.4
41.1
41.5
40.4
40.6
40.7
39.9
39.9
40.6
40.8
39.9
41.0
41.3
40.7
40.8
40.6
39.7
39.7
40.6
40.0
40.1
41.3
41.1
40.7
40.8
40.5
39.6
40.1
40.7
40.6
39.6
41.2
41.3
40.6
40.7
40.6
39.8
39.9
40.6
40.7
40.0
Dl. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING—21 INDUSTRIES1
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PtRIOO
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
...
28,6
40,5
81.0
54.8
73.3
28.6
21.4
33.3
26.2
64.3
64,3
54.8
42.9
42,9
69.0
47.6
71.4
26.2
71.4
71.4
26,2
83.3
31.0
64.3
52.4
9.5
81.0
78.6
14.3
42.9
28.6
42.9
42.9
69.0
66.7
19.0
83.3
31.0
69.0
45.2
45.2
47.6
85.7
38.1
57.1
16.7
78.6
26,2
38.1
64.3
81.0
38.1
16.7
38.1
64.3
14.3
73.8
42.9
64.3
21.4
83.3
31.0
52.4
90.5
9.5
81.0
28.6
71.4
95.2
9.5
19.0
64.3
50.0
59.5
59.5
16.7
61.9
81.0
76.2
71.4
36.1
19.0
57.1
69.0
31.0
23.8
92.9
69.0
14.3
59.5
38.1
73.8
59.5
35.7
40.5
...
42.1
43.7
72.2
60.3
47.6
51.6
40.5
50.e
46.8
42.0
77.8
45.2
51.6
30.2
58.7
43.7
40.5
62.7
58.0
43.6
65.1
26.2
45.2
68.2
34.1
46.0
51.6
53.2
50.8
46,8
69.9
...
...
40.9
48.6
64.9
50.6
53.8
38.7
53.6
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
90.5
40.5
33.1
35.7
92.9
45.2
95.2
23.8
83.3
0.0
81.0
26.2
73.8
9.5
61.9
14.3
54.8
64.3
47.6
85.7
83.3
23.8
21.4
69.0
69.0
35.7
61.9
76.2
50.0
40.5
45.2
71.4
42.9
42.9
71.4
35.7
73.8
78.6
19.0
78.6
90.5
4.3
9.5
64.3
69.0
81.0
47.6
23.8
65.7
33.3
40.5
28.6
40.5
95.2
33.3
16.7
92.9
33.3
69.0
42.9
21.4
81.0
42.9
78.6
45.2
42.9
59.5
35.7
59.5
57.1
66.7
21.4
40.5
78.6
33.3
28.6
66.7
42.9
40.5
71.4
73.8
73.8
57.1
73.8
23.8
21.4
38.1
83.3
73.8
16.7
69.0
64.3
4.8
40.5
52.4
85.7
88.1
4.8
57.1
66.7
66.7
16.7
35.7
90.5
50.0
16.7
71.4
64.3
19.0
61.9
33.3
66.7
35.7
52.4
69.0
7.1
19.0
28.6
76.2
88.1
84.9
30.2
44.4
38.1
74.6
31.7
70.6
54.6
60.3
42.1
58.7
34.9
31.0
67.5
57.9
44.5
71.4
45.2
57.9
51.6
54.0
58.7
46.8
77.J
34.1
31.0
54.8
54.0
57.9
48.4
56.3
49.2
25.4
61.1
57.1
36.5
59.5
32.6
50.6
72.2
63.5
43.3
36.9
60.9
55.9
35.9
64.1
46,6
56.7
53.6
1965...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
61.9
59.5
73.8
U.9
52.4
40.5
81.0
52.4
52.4
26.2
64.3
83.3
4.8
92.9
19.0
21.4
19.0
81.0
92.9
59.5
76.2
33.3
47.6
U.9
85.7
28.6
71.4
42.9
52.4
42.9
16.7
40.5
57.1
19.0
35.7
26.2
35.7
88.1
45.2
7.1
61.0
57.1
31.0
90.5
45.2
33.3
78.6
U.9
31.0
92.9
38.1
31.0
54.8
57.1
38.1
54.8
50.0
81.0
19.0
35.7
54.8
19.0
73.8
35.7
31.0
76.2
54.8
26.2
52.4
21.4
42.9
57.1
61.9
52.4
57.1
23.8
33.3
78.6
35.7
47.6
26.2
52.4
59.5
78.6
59.5
9.5
21.4
47.6
85.7
23.8
71.4
50.0
40.5
52.4
26.2
76.2
81.0
71.4
23.8
38.1
73.8
40.5
76.2
23.6
45.2
54.8
78.6
57.1
73.8
9.5
78.6
19.0
35.7
45.2
71.4
59.5
71.4
19.0
42.9
23.8
67.5
58.7
42.1
38.9
52.4
30.2
57.1
58.8
65.9
42.9
45.3
42.9
47.6
55.5
39.7
38.1
54.8
60.3
31.7
45.2
41.3
42.8
65.1
55.0
49.2
36. 5
36.5
50.6
57.9
30.9
74.6
36.5
50.8
40.5
47.6
63.5
77.0
49.2
46.d
23.8
57.2
45.2
51.4
47.6
47.2
42.1
56.4
54.6
50.6
35.7
Dl. DIFFUSION INDEX FOP. AVERAGE WORKWEtK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING—21 INDUSTRIES2
(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)
13,3
14.3
90.5
78.6
26.2
90.5
0.0
92.9
23.8
4.8
78.6
81.0
42.9
64.3
0.0
92.9
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
76.2
4.8
90.5
45.2
40.5
dl, 0
2.4
100.0
31.0
21.4
14.3
92.9
23.6
40.5
88.1
61.9
69,0
61.9
14.3
95.2
42.9
47.6
14,3
50.0
100.0
14.3
U.9
19,0
95,2
26,2
83.3
85.7
42.9
59.5
42.9
14.3
97.6
31.0
42.9
9.5
33.3
85.7
4.8
16.7
45.2
90.5
28.6
73.8
59.5
95.2
64.3
45.2
19.0
100.0
21.4
52.4
4.8
50.0
95.2
23.8
71.4
26.2
21.4
47.6
90.5
19.0
71.4
42.9
38.1
59.5
73.8
59.5
0.0
50.0
95.2
26.2
73.8
0.0
78.6
81.0
9.5
21.4
69.0
88.1
21.4
95.2
28.6
73.8
85.7
85.7
16.7
14.3
83.3
71.4
14.3
90.5
69.0
33.3
47.6
90.5
21.4
4.8
90.5
40.5
9.5
97.6
50.0
76.2
83.3
92.9
19.0
0.0
100.0
38.1
9.5
95.2
45.2
66.7
71.4
81.0
35.7
2.4
95.2
42.9
7.1
90.5
23.8
57.1
95.2
85.7
21.4
4.8
92.9
35.7
38.1
66.7
26.2
50.0
85.7
38.1
54.8
7.1
100.0
U.9
9.5
92.9
21.4
59.5
88.1
47.6
2.4
85.7
73.8
38.1
85.7
4.8
95.2
33.3
57.1
U.9
95.2
19.0
19.0
78.6
38.1
52.4
92.9
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
88.1
90.5
9.5
61.9
45.2
U.9
69.0
83.3
52.4
35.7
78.6
88.1
U.9
69.0
19.0
14.3
90.5
83.3
33.3
7.1
85.7
61.9
U.9
61.9
23.8
19.0
81.0
92.9
35.7
7.1
78.6
42.9
21.4
38.1
40.5
33.3
42.9
40.5
73.8
40.5
14.3
52.4
90.5
59.5
0.0
50.0
23.8
23.8
90.5
28.6
9.5
59.5
68.1
69.0
U.9
59.5
14.3
71.4
31.0
66.7
16.7
76.2
69.0
26.6
4.8
71.4
U.9
66.7
50.0
21.4
21.4
81.0
59.5
26.2
4.8
90.5
U.9
31.0
P1.0
31.0
54.8
81.0
28.6
23.3
47.6
97.6
4.8
78.6
16.7
U.9
38.1
81.0
71.4
23.8
0.0
95.2
U.9
61.9
35.7
U.9
61.9
92.9
71.4
35.7
4.8
lr
2
This s e r i e s <
This s e r i e s <
U.°
78.6
95.2
26.?
4.8
; b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1970.
i b e g i n n i n g w i t h 1969.
50.0
16.7
42.9
95.2
35.7
66.7
AVERAGE FOR PtRIOU
66.7
0.0
92.9
73.8
23.8
83.3
0.0
90.5
94.4
39.7
43.7
34.9
28.6
61.9
28.6
U.9
95.2
16.7
28.6
95.2
21.4
73.8
57.1
73.8
9.5
23.8
38.1
14.3
45.2
95.2
71.4
9.5
9.5
...
...
23^8
38.'9
95.2
21.4
65.1
7,1
46.8
47,6
10.3
61.1
89.7
29.4
77.0
3.2
81.8
46.0
2.4
85.7
76.2
34.9
77.6
1.6
92.9
2^2
49^
88.9
31.4
65.9
U .7
62.5
95.2
16.7
16.7
26.2
92.9
27.8
65.9
77.8
66.7
64.3
85.7
15.9
13.5
80.9
66.7
15.1
94,4
49.2
77.8
72.2
86.5
25.4
2.4
96.0
38.9
16.2
84.1
31.7
57.9
64.1
44.4
46.8
10.3
96.6
15.9
19.0
88.9
27. C
61.9
79.4
78.0
2b.2
10.7
75.0
53.6
20.0
83.3
46.4
66.1
75.0
84.1
80.2
11.1
64.3
29.3
15.1
80.2
86.5
40.5
16.6
54.0
3b. 5
28.6
67.5
36.5
U.9
63.5
91.3
51.6
5.6
73.6
12.7
56.4
54.0
39.7
31.0
79.4
52.4
26.2
19.1
68.9
8.7
54.8
30.2
12.7
48.4
69.7
71.4
23.0
4.P
75.2
34.5
37.7
54,0
29.6
26.6
78.2
75.4
35.3
11.5
n!i
DECEMBER 1975
109
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Apr.
Mar
May
June
July
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
Sept
Dec.
II Q
1 Q
IIIQ
IV Q
?. ACCESSlOh KATE/ MANUFACTURING 1
(PEK 100 EMPLOYEES)
1945...
1946...
1947...
1946...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
7,7
9. 6
7,0
5.6
3.9
4.4
6.4
5.4
5.6
3.6
4.2
4.1
6. 8
9, 3
6.9
6.5
0
4.
4.4
6.?
5.?
5,7
3.4
6. 4
9. 6
6.9
6.3
8.9
6.9
6.5
8.1
6.4
5.2
3.9
4. 8
6. 1
5.0
5.5
3.5
5.5
4.0
4.8
6.0
5.3
4.4
5.3
b.5
4.9
5.2
4.8
5.6
3.1
AVERAGE F0»
6.8
6.8
7.7
8.5
5.7
5.6
4.3
6.1
6.?.
4.7
5.2
5.1
4.9
10. 5
6.6
b.6
7.2
10.0
8.U
5.9
5.J>
6.9
5.8
4.8
5.1
5.5
6.1
4.7
5.4
5.1
^>.3
b.3
5.7
4.5
5.7
3.7
5.4
4.b
4.1
4.5
4.3
3.5
3.9
3.1
4.C
8. 2
7. 5
7. ?
10. 4
7.0
6. 0
5. 9
6. 0
5.2
4.4
6.6
4.6
6.2
4.5
3.4
5. 1
4. 3
6.0
4,6
b. 7
4. 1
5. 1
4. 1
5.8
4.8
5.R
4,8
4,?
5.1
5.4
4.5
5.
5. 6
3. 7
5. 6
3. ?
3. 8
3. 9
4. 2
3. I
4. 0
4, 2
4. 1
3. 0
4. 1
5. b
4. 1
3.9
3.1
4,3
4.2
3.7
3.5
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.0
4.3
4.2
4.6
4.0
3.3
4.0
4.1
4.b
4, 3
3.3
3.9
4, 0
9. 0
3.7
4.1
4.
4.6
5.3
5.2
3.6
4.3
7.
9.
6. 9
5.6
4.5
6.2
5.2
5.6
PtRIOU
6.b
8.2
6.b
5.7
6.6
7.9
b.9
4.9
5.3
7.7
8.1
0.2
b.4
4.3
4.8
3.6
4.4
4,1
4,5
4.1
4.6
4.3
4. 0
3.1
4. 1
3.9
3. 1
4. 4
3.H
3.2
4,5
3.6
3.3
4.4
3.6
4.2
4.2
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.8
4.1
4.5
3 6
1961...
3,3
3.8
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.1
3. 8
4. 2
4# 3
4, 2
4. 0
4.1
4.i
3 d
4.0
4.5
4.2
3.6
3.6
4.2
3 8
4.2
4.1
1963...
1964...
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.0
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.9
3. 8
4. 0
3. 7
4. 0
3.9
4. 0
3.b
3.9
3.9
4.0
3.6
4.0
3.P
4.1
3. 8
3. 6
4.0
3.9
4.0
1965...
1966...
4. 1
4. 9
4. 1
5.0
4. ?
5.3
4.1
5.0
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.9
4.2
5.0
4, 4
5. 0
4. 5
5. 0
4, 7
4. 7
9
4. 1
5. 1
4.2
5.0
4.3
5.0
4.7
4.3
4.8
5.0
4.6
4. 7
4 8
4. 9
8
4. 5
4.6
4.6
4.6
3.9
3. 9
3
7
3. 7
9
4. 2
4.0
4.0
3.8
4.5
4.7
4. 5
4. 8
4, 6
4, 9
4. 6
4, 9
7
5
4.4
4.9
4.3
4.7
4.4
4.7
4.6
4.9
3< 1
**' '
4.5
1
1
1
2
2.
1
1
1
2
1
0.0
2. 1
1.0
1.6
2. 9
1,8
1.0
1.5
1 0
2 8
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
•j
4.5
4.1
3.6
5.0
3.9
3.7
5.1
6
5
4 5
PT
1968...
4, 4
4, 5
4. 5
4.6
1970...
4, 9
3
4. 4
4. 0
3.9
4.1
4.1
4.6
4 7
4.1
1972...
1973...
4, 4
4, 8
4. 3
4. 9
4. 4
4. 9
4.4
4.4
4.7
*
4.7
4.2
4.8
4.3
4.7
4<
1975...
1976...
4.6
4.6
4.6
7
4t
'
3
"
3. LAYOFF RATE/ MANUFACTURINGl
(PEK 00 tMPLOYEES)
19«5...
1946...
1947...
194b...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
0 7
2 1
1 0
14
3,0
1 8
1 1
1 5
0 9
2 9
0.9
2, 2
1.0
2 0
2. 7
2 1
1 0
1 5
1 0
2 7
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1
1
1
3
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
3
1
1
3
2
1
1
5
6
5
3
8
5
7
9
0
7
4
?
7
?
7
9
0
0
8
9
0.9
2. 1
1. 1
1.4
3. 1
1.6
1.0
1.4
1 0
2 8
1
1
1
3
1
2
2
1
1
1
5
rt
5
5
7
4
5
8
9
8
.0
1.3
2.1
,e
1.6
l.b"
1.4
.1
.4
5.2
,4
.1
.6
1.1
2.7
1.4
1.6
1.7
3.3
1.7
2.3
2.1
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.2
3.4
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
2.4
1.4
2.2
2.0
3.1
1.7
2.3
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.3
1.3
3.1
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.2
2.3
1.7
1.8
1.7
2.4
1.8
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1 2
1 4
1 .4
1 .1
1 .5
1.7
1.2
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
3
1
7
0 .3
1 .5
1 .?
0 ,7
1.4
1.2
21.
1.1
1.3
0 8
1.2
1.0
1.9
l.b
1.2
0.8
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.9
1.6
1.1
0.9
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.9
1.6
1.4
0.8
1 .2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1 1
1 6
1 ?
1 1
1 8
1 5
1 .1
1.2
1.5
11.4
1.6
1.7
1.8
?.5
1.8
2.4
2.3
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.5
2.1
2.3
2.0
2.6
1.9
2.2
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.1
l.b
1.5
1.2
1.0
1.0
4 4
4.6
4 7
4.0
3 y
4.4
4.8
3.3
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1.8
0.8
1.3
1.4
2.9
0.8
1.8
3.0
1.4
2.1
0.9
1.0
1.7
2.7
0.8
1.8
1.3
1.7
2.2
4. 2
1.1
1.0
1.3
2. 4
1,0
1.7
0. 9
1 9
2 1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
4
8
3
2
1
4
2
0
9
6
0
7
2
1.0
1.1
1.8
2. 8
1,2
1,7
0 8
2 2
1 9
0. 8
2 5
1 6
1 5
1 6
2 7
2 0
2 9
2 6
1 .8
2 1
1 8
1 7
1
1
2
1
2
2
2 8
1
1
1
2.
1
1
2
1
5
9
2.
3
6
9
9
4
6
1 9
1 9
1 8
1 5
i
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
197b...
1976...
4.3
3 7
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.1
1.9
2.0
1.1
0.9
1.3
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
3
2
2
V
7
1 .0
0 .8
1 ,4
1 .1
1 .3
1 .2
1 .3
2 .?
1.5
1 .0
0 .9
2 .0
1 2
1 2
1 1
1 3
2 0
1 4
0 ,9
1 .0
2 ,5
6
2
0
4
1
3
b
0
6
8
1
1
2
2
1
5
b
8
0
9
d. 8
1 ,9
1 9
1 7
1 6
n
1 .3
1 2
1 .1
1 ,4
1 ,7
1 .3
0 .9
1.1
2 .6
1
1
1
3
1
1
2
1
1
1
5
9
6
3
7
9
7
V
9
b
1 1
1 b
1 3
1 1
1 7
1 .6
1 .2
0 .8
1 .3
AVERAGE WEEKLY OVERTIME HOURS OF PRODUCTION WORKERS , MANUFACTURING
(HOURS)
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.3
3.2
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.2
2.b
1.5
1.9
1.8
2.9
1.7
2.4
2.2
1.9
1.8
1.6
1 4
1.2
5.8
0.9
1.1
l.b
2.7
0.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
2.1
1.6
1.7
2.1
2.3
2.U
2.5
2.1
2.1
.8
•6
L.2
.3
,i
.1
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.9
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
l.d
1.7
1.1
2.2
2.6
1.1
1.1
1.9
2.6
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.6
2.9
1.3
1.4
1.6
0.9
2.4
1.8
1.4
1.6
2.3
1.4
1.6
2.8
2.0
2.4
2.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.7
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.7
1 4
1.2
1.2
14
1.1
1.3
2.0
1.4
0.9
1.0
2.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.6
1.2
1.4
1.1
0.9
l.b
AVERAGE FOR PtRIOD
...
1945...
1951...
1953...
2 .e
2 .8
2 .8
2 .2
2 .2
2 ,7
2 .3
2 .6
2 .8
2 ,y
2 ,i
2 .2
2 .6
2 ,4
2 .7
2 .7
2 .9
2 .1
3 .2
3 .2
1 .9
2 .b
2 .b
2 .0
2 .8
2 .8
3 .0
3 .4
3.5
4.0
3.5
3.9
3 .3
3 .8
3 .7
3 .9
3.6
3.6
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.8
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.4
3.5
3 6
2.9
2.9
3.5
3.7
3.4
3 ,7
3 7
2 .8
2 .8
3 .5
3 .7
3 .2
2.8
2.7
2.3
1.9
2.8
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
4.1
3.5
4.1
3.5
3.9
3 .5
3.1
3.7
3 ,?
2
3
3 9
3 .6
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.9
3.4
2 ,8
2 .6
1 ,7
2 ,8
2 .7
2 .1
2 .«
2 .8
3 .0
2.8
1963...
1964. . .
3 0
2 ,7
1 ,9
2 .6
2 .8
2. 1
2 ,7
2 .7
2 ,9
1965...
1966...
3 ,5
3 ,9
3 .6
4 .1
3 .7
4 .1
1968...
3.4
3
3 .5
1970...
1971...
197?...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
3 ,3
2 ,3
3 ,?
2 9
3 ?
4 ,0
3 ,b
3 ,0
3 .8
3 .5
2 ,7
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.9
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.8
3.2
2.7
2.3
1.9
2.9
2.5
2.3
2.8
2.9
3 .?
2 .9
1.9
2 .5
3 .0
2 .1
2 .8
2 .7
2 ,9
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
2.5
1.7
2.8
2.4
2.?
2.*
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.7
2.7
2.3
1.8
2.9
2.6
2.2
2.8
3.8
3.4
3 .7
3
2 .8
3 .C
3 .6
3 .7
3 .1
2 ,4
2 ,5
2 .1
2 ,e
2 .8
2 ,9
3 ,2
3 ,8
3 ,8
3
3 .8
3 s
2 .7
3 .0
3 .7
3 .e
2 .8
3 .8
3 .b
3 n
3 .7
3, s
2 .7
3 .1
3 .8
3 .7
2 .7
2."a
2.3
2.0
2.7
2.4
3.0
2.9
3.1
2.b
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.8
2.3
2.9
3.3
3.4
3.b
3.d
4.0
3 3
3.b
3.7
3.9
3 3
3.o
3.0
2.v
3.7
3.6
3.9
3 4
3.6
3.6
3.0
2.9
3 .0
2 .7
1,b
2 .6
2 .8
2 .1
2 .8
2 ,7
2 .9
2.7
2.4
1.8
2.9
2.b
2.2
2.8
2.6
2.2
2.7
3 .6
4 .0
3 i|
3 .b
3 ,6
3 .2
2 .8
3 .2
3 .9
3 ,b
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.9
3.2
2.1
2,b
2.4
2.b
2.fa
2.9
3.b
3.7
3.3
3f 3
3.7
3.b
2.7
3.0
3.7
3.7
2.9
2.4
2.8
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.8
3.2
DECEMBER 1975
110
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
41.
Mar.
May
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
1 Q
II Q
39,022
43,333
44 557
4b'o51
43,525
46,764
48,168
49,993
49,673
49,250
41,74C
39,719
43 573
44,620
44,427
43,510
47,503
46,399
50,267
49,248
41,126
41,213
39,777
42,419
38,771
43,201
40,394
41,674
44,642
43,844
44,626
47,890
48,391
50,409
48,898
4b,10<!
43,54b
45,916
47,8<*5
48,612
50,297
48,746
45,077
43,166
46,6b3
48,017
49,721
49,878
49,066
44,691
43,77b
4b,222
47,649
46,820
50,232
49,022
Nov.
Dec.
38,&2l
43,263
44,345
45,094
43,163
46,652
48,049
49,719
49,845
49,109
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES DN NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS, ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY1
(THOUSANDS)
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
41,780
39,729
43,493
44,658
44,622
43,467
47,267
48,266
50,084
49,361
41,784
39,215
43,588
44,541
44,445
43,192
47,518
48,456
50,320
49,284
41,656
40,214
43,639
44,662
44,214
43,871
47,725
48,473
50,398
49,099
41,341
40,811
41,1*5
41,260
44,342
44,056
44,276
47,890
48,494
50,416
49,010
195b...
1956...
1957...
1956...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
49,360
51,910
52,860
52,054
52,456
54,221
53,573
54,745
55,960
57,326
49,538
52,127
53,044
51,486
52,602
54,452
53,423
55,050
56,092
57,666
49,866
52,180
53,1?4
51,158
52,884
54,380
53,522
55,176
56,205
57,718
196b...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
59,467
62,454
6b,284
66,701
69,381
71,156
70,817
72,401
75,516
78,063
59,715
62,744
65,281
67,077
69,618
71,219
70,686
72,520
75,915
78,196
59,957
63,134
65,361
67,197
69,835
71,353
70,754
72,870
76,159
78,236
D41. DIFFUSION
36,387
42,796
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
44,609
43,848
44,607
47,829
48,538
bO,3V4
45,603
40,912
41,568
43,668
44,925
43,626
44,99b
47,951
43,142
50,416
48,820
40,623
41,968
43,667
4b,l?4
43,457
45,367
47,951
47,986
50,413
48,730
40,320
42,490
43,851
4b,040
43,boo
46,064
47,815
48,70b
50,304
48,707
45*143
43,671
46,296
47,770
49,146
50,173
46,802
38,470
43,008
44,272
45,087
42,811
46,522
47,815
49,451
50,115
48,838
50,127
52,325
53,080
50,880
53,221
54,636
53,538
55,455
56,447
57,898
50,447
52,418
03,004
50,820
53,477
54,407
53,721
55,bo5
56,575
58,039
50,745
52,498
53,003
50,851
53,645
54,324
53,959
55,600
56,610
58,171
50,670
51,827
53,003
50,944
53,713
54,258
54,095
50,707
56,753
56,383
50,967
52,476
52,976
51,159
53,287
54,228
54,267
55,823
56,867
58,546
51,144
52,010
52,869
51,413
53,316
54,116
54,307
55,903
57,025
56,619
51,336
52,691
52,718
51,418
53,230
54,021
54,413
55,957
57,203
58,718
5l,5U
52,760
52,495
51,656
53,541
53,691
54,669
55,981
57,171
59,131
51,739
52,901
52,307
52,008
54,069
53,611
54,792
55,967
57,295
59,345
49,588
52,072
53,009
51,566
52,647
54,351
53,506
54,991
56,086
57,570
50,440
52,414
53,046
50,850
53,448
54,456
53,739
55,540
56,544
58,036
50,994
52,271
52,949
51,172
53,439
54,201
54,223
55,811
56,882
58,563
51,529
52,784
52,507
51,761
53,613
53,841
54,625
55,968
57,223
59,06b
bo,675
b2,406
52,894
51,363
53,313
b4,234
54,042
55,596
b6,702
58,331
60,144
63,390
65,442
67,455
70,008
71,304
70,946
73,118
76,367
78,351
60,436
63,638
65,553
67,b60
70,228
71,008
71*101
73,400
76,509
78,486
60,655
64,026
65,677
67,825
70,520
70,902
71,121
73,641
76,878
78,530
60,929
64,246
6b,638
68,046
70,693
70,960
71,180
73,687
76,940
78,648
61,130
64,399
66,001
68,256
70,798
70,797
71,179
74,007
11*201
78,733
61,399
64,bO4
66,084
66,421
70,873
70,66b
71,519
74,241
77,366
76,630
61,608
64,687
66,124
68,645
71,047
70,462
71,533
74,591
77,673
78,790
6l,9 0 8
64,892
66,624
66,9o5
71,001
70,326
71,723
74,645
77,973
78,374
62,242
65,062
66,816
69,221
71,178
70,699
71,992
75,099
78,058
77,723
59,713
62,777
65,309
6b,992
69,611
71,243
70,752
72,597
7b,863
78,167
60,412
63,685
65,5b7
67,613
70,252
71,071
71,056
73,386
76,605
78,456
61,153
64,383
65,974
66,241
70,786
70,874
71,293
73,97d
77,171
78,737
61,919
64,880
66,b21
68,924
71,075
70,496
71,749
74,845
77,901
78,296
60,81b
63,95b
65,657
67,951
70,442
70,920
71,222
73,714
7o,696
76,413
INDEX FOR NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS—30 INDUSTRIES1
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
...
51.7
5.0
53.3
90.0
61.7
75.0
20.0
61.7
33.3
20.0
66.3
86.7
58.3
71.7
28.3
56.7
55.0
26.7
83.3
71.7
56.7
78.3
28.3
56.7
38.3
36.7
85.0
71.7
58.3
63.3
23.3
4b.0
08.3
2b.0
83.3
46.7
b3.3
60.0
26.3
55.0
80.0
20.0
61.7
61.7
66.7
46.7
26.7
48.3
68.3
23.3
91.7
45.0
51.7
45.0
41.7
68.3
46.7
53.3
96.7
36.7
73.3
26.7
43.3
71.7
48.3
70.0
76.7
35.0
81.7
25.0
60,0
75.0
35.0
53.3
75.0
46.7
86.7
21.7
58.3
56.3
40.0
43.3
66.7
68.3
88.3
25.0
83.3
70.0
28.3
60.0
71.7
68.3
60.0
23.3
61.7
...
46,7
17!2
68,3
82.8
56.9
75.0
2b.5
52.2
62.2
27.2
83.3
60.0
59.4
56.7
26.1
62.6
54.4
48.9
88.4
38.9
66.9
32.2
48,3
67.8
34.4
52.2
71.1
61.1
8b.0
23.3
67.8
!!!
49.4
30.4
77.6
60.7
68.1
46.6
41.9
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
71.7
68.3
41.7
20.0
96.7
75.0
45.0
56.7
61.7
51.7
80.0
66.7
50.0
8.3
75.0
76.7
33.3
73.3
40.0
75.0
96.7
46.7
46.7
16.7
91.7
41.7
60.0
68.3
76.7
63.3
76.7
63.3
35.0
20.0
88.3
50.0
60.0
83.3
68.3
78.3
66.3
40.0
26.7
40.0
63.3
26.3
80.0
61.7
66.3
66.7
91.7
31.7
35.0
63.3
66.7
26.7
P6.7
58.3
06.7
08.3
51.7
25.0
40.0
63.3
65.0
38.3
63.3
56.3
63.3
71.7
63.3
80.0
41.7
65.0
46.7
36.3
60.0
65.0
56.7
66.7
71.7
33.3
36.7
90.0
66.3
25.0
58.3
55.0
66.7
90.0
73.3
78.3
26.7
70.0
33.3
25.0
81.7
b6.7
73.3
51.7
68.3
41.7
20.0
66.7
60.0
25.0
81.7
31.7
30.7
78.3
75.0
66.7
20.0
81.7
75.0
16.7
70.0
43.3
61.7
75.0
82.8
60.6
46.1
15.0
87.6
64.5
46.1
66.1
59.5
63.3
85.6
45.0
32.2
41.1
79.4
35.0
75.6
67,6
64.4
71.1
62.2
46.1
39.0
79.4
60.0
33.9
67.2
59.4
62.2
76.1
72.2
62.2
22.2
79.5
56.1
22.2
77.8
43.9
57.2
68.3
7b,7
b3.5
35.0
b3.6
70.8
38.9
60.7
b9,3
60,8
69.7
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
70,0
83.3
66.7
46.7
73.3
46,7
46.7
86.7
68.3
78.3
85.0
28.3
73.3
73.3
31.7
31.7
68.3
86.7
81.7
91.7
35.0
70.0
71.7
40.0
38.3
88.3
86.7
70.0
86.7
45.0
68.3
55.0
26.7
75.0
88.3
63.3
63.3
78.3
41.7
66.7
60.0
20.0
85.0
80.0
65.0
48.3
76.7
65.0
08.3
78.3
76.7
30.0
38.3
75.0
76.7
48.3
93.3
65.0
56.3
73.3
58.3
51.7
53.3
50.0
6b.0
60.0
70.0
76.7
65.0
70.0
56.3
25.0
8b.0
50.0
50.0
61.7
41.7
56.7
86.7
83.3
56.7
51.7
86.7
70.0
68.3
60.0
46.7
26.7
01.7
93.3
76.7
35.0
90.0
70.0
8b.0
78.3
46.7
26.7
73.3
85.0
76.7
10,0
85.0
58.3
70.0
78.3
56.7
55.0
58.3
83.3
68.3
16.7
76.7
88.3
43.3
63.3
74.4
39.b
38.9
61.1
80.6
47.8
70.0
83.3
48.3
71.1
63.9
25.6
66.1
81.1
68.3
46.1
82.6
63.9
57.6
68.3
52.8
44.0
66.1
73.9
62.2
55.6
67.2
66.1
74.4
78.9
bO.O
36.1
61.1
67.2
73.V
20.6
79.2
7b.4
b6.0
70.4
60.3
36.4
b8.0
80.8
71.3
42.5
t>6.3
86.3
65.0
55.0
D41. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS—30 INDUSTRIES2
(PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)
1947
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
43.3
16.7
73.3
76.7
66.7
86.7
16.7
48.3
10.0
93.3
76.7
63.3
71.7
15.0
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
88.3
71.7
48.3
13.3
95,0
78.3
20.0
85.0
56.7
63.3
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
78.3
93.3
50.0
86.7
60.0
36.7
36.7
93.3
85.0
66.7
51.7
11.7
83.3
73.3
58.3
70.0
13.3
43.3
53.3
15.0
93.3
63.3
55.0
68.3
23.3
46.7
05.0
20.0
98.3
46.7
63.3
bb.O
16.7
56.7
53.3
20.0
100.0
40.0
83.3
33.3
13.3
6b,0
70.0
33.3
100.0
36.3
85.0
26.7
40.0
73,3
68.3
33.3
93.3
46.3
96.7
30.0
56.7
83,3
43.3
50.0
96.7
48.3
93.3
20.0
60.0
81,7
25.0
55.0
96.7
bO.O
90.0
16.7
71.7
83.3
63.3
38.3
15.0
91.7
81.7
26.7
86,7
66,7
70.0
93.3
56.7
26.7
15.0
95.0
46.7
63.3
86,7
63.3
70.0
93.3
36.7
26.7
13.3
88.3
35.0
75.0
73.3
63.3
86.7
95.0
46.7
2b.0
21.7
86.3
26.7
83.3
80.0
70.0
81.7
85.0
45.0
20.0
05.0
73.3
30.0
86.7
76.7
70.0
90.0
80.0
41.7
16.7
66.3
61.7
20.0
80.0
53.3
70.0
80.0
78.3
51.7
16.7
85.0
51.7
18.3
66.7
46.7
51.7
93.3
73.3
55.0
11.7
91.7
56.3
20.0
81.7
40.0
58.3
91.7
78.3
93.3
41.7
75.0
71.7
30.0
53.3
90.0
83.3
46.7
76.7
90,0
41.7
86.7
73.3
28,3
40.0
93.3
85.0
46.7
90.0
85.0
38.3
90.0
78.3
25.0
51.7
86.7
83.3
43.3
90.0
6b.0
45.0
8b. 0
78.3
26.7
56.7
85.0
76.7
41.7
86.7
73.3
51.7
63.3
65.0
26.7
78.3
86.7
70.0
50.0
93.3
73.3
56.7
81.7
53.3
26.7
68.3
66.7
68.3
46.7
91.7
75.0
76.7
88.3
55.0
26.3
70.0
86.7
81.7
33.3
93.3
75.0
78.3
85.0
50.0
23.3
75.0
88.3
83.3
16.3
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
48,9
73,9
47.8
12.8
83.3
7b.6
62.8
76.1
15.C
18.'3
97.2
50.0
67.2
52.2
19.4
76.7
61.7
13.3
95.0
70.0
20.0
80.0
56.7
58.3
85.0
88.3
63.9
37,6
14.4
93,9
68.9
36.7
86.1
62.2
67.8
93.3
53.3
81.7
80.0
41.7
23.3
83.3
88.3
75.0
10.0
77.8
92.2
44.5
82.8
7b.0
31.7
43.3
92.2
84.4
53.4
b6.*7
90.0
50.0
86.7
20.0
83.3
71.7
15.0
60.0
60.0
73.3
85.0
20.0
90.0
80.0
68.3
18.3
93.3
63.3
20.0
83.3
45.0
50.0
81.7
63.3
60.0
13.3
96.7
7b.0
21.7
83.3
40.0
68.3
88.3
90.0
70.0
70.0
80.0
48.3
25.0
85.0
90.0
83.3
21.7
91.7
66.7
85.0
76.7
38.3
20.0
88.3
90.0
76.7
lb.O
75.0
...
...
38.*9
96.7
45.0
91.7
25.6
52.2
7b. 1
18.9
57.2
68.9
57.6
87.2
16.9
81.7
4b\3
31.8
91.5
57.1
77.2
43.2
42.1
91,1
42.8
23.9
33.3
63.3
30,6
81.7
76.7
67.e
86.1
77,2
49.6
15.0
81.7
57,2
19,4
82.8
46.7
60,0
86.i
80.0
63.3
lb.O
9b.0
69.4
20.6
82.2
47.?
b8.9
65.0
84.2
b4.9
22.9
56.1
76,0
34.9
70,8
64,2
62.2
81.6
88.9
81.1
45.0
86,1
73,9
26.1
62.2
86.1
7o.7
45.0
92.6
74.4
70.6
85,0
52.6
26.1
71.1
87.2
77.d
32.6
91.7
63.3
76.9
78.9
42.*
22.6
85.5
89.4
78.3
lb.6
87,6
77.8
b9,7
83.2
61,1
26,7
65,6
66.8
79.3
36.7
1976!!!
ith 1970.
ith 1969.
DECEMBER 1975
111
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
Jan.
Feb.
29.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
INDEX OF NEW PRIVATE HOUSING UNITS AUTHORIZED BY LOCAL dUlLDINfa PERMITS1
(1967=100)
II Q
III Q
IVQ
AVEKAbE FOR PEKIOD
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949. ..
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
86.6
80.1
109.4
80.4
157.4
146.3
99.6
104.9
101.9
91.4
85.8
100.4
81.9
159,2
114.8
115.3
110.7
100,4
114.7
83.9
104.0
86.6
159.1
104,5
105.5
111,6
105.8
82.7
77.5
116.5
96.6
161.9
96.9
103.5
106.2
106.9
82.3
80.5
106.7
104.2
161.3
99.3
101.2
106.4
108.8
79.6
91.6
103.1
106.4
160.7
96.9
101.6
103.5
116.9
77.6
96.6
102.2
110.2
182.8
92.9
107.9
99.9
119.9
77.7
106.1
94.6
112.3
158.2
94.8
107.6
96.4
118.9
76.3
111.2
84.8
136.2
133.7
122.2
U5.5
94.6
121.9
74.3
118.2
89.4
135.6
126.2
93.2
116.8
99.6
126.2
77.0
117.5
86.2
141.9
123.6
90.9
117.2
100.1
135.8
72.9
117.4
82.8
146.6
158.6
94.1
.108.3
102.4
132.0
97.6
83.3
104.b
83.C
158.6
121.9
106.8
109.1
102.7
81.b
83.2
106.8
102.4
161.3
97.7
102.1
105.4
110.9
77.9
105.3
93.9
119.b
158.2
103.3
110.3
97.6
120.2
74.7
117.7
86.1
141.4
136.1
92.7
114.1
100.7
131.3
82.9
97.4
9d,4
111.6
153.6
103.9
108.3
103.2
116,3
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
136,4
109.8
86.5
91,5
114,7
102,7
91,2
105,5
113.0
117.4
151,0
106.8
90.8
78.7
119.6
102,3
90,4
112.3
109.7
130.6
129.3
109.8
91.7
87.2
125.0
89.8
94,0
106.7
113.8
118.8
132.9
109.4
86.7
92.0
119.4
95.6
94.2
116.2
116.6
114.4
133.6
101.9
90.5
96.2
117.4
98.9
96.6
107.4
122.2
117.6
126.2
100.1
92.b
102.6
115.5
90.1
100.7
108.5
121.8
U5.8
126.7
99.4
86.2
111.9
112.5
93.9
101.9
111.9
119.6
116.1
122.2
97.0
92.0
111.7
113.7
93.4
10O.9
112.8
118.6
116.2
120.4
94,5
92.4
U4.5
109.4
92.6
103.2
U5.0
126.0
U4.5
117.8
93.2
91.1
118.1
105.3
91.4
105.6
111.1
128.1
111.4
107.5
93.7
86.5
134.1
100.7
92.0
108.3
116.3
122.9
113.5
107.0
92.8
89.3
115.8
108.2
89.4
109.2
U6.3
128.8
105.3
136.9
108.8
89,7
85.6
119.0
98.3
91.9
108.2
112.2
122,3
130.9
103.8
89,9
9b.9
117.4
94.9
97.2
110.7
120.2
115.9
123.1
97.u
90,2
112.7
111.9
93.3
104.7
113.2
122.1
116.9
110. fi
93.?
89.6
122.7
104.7
90.9
107.7
114.6
126.6
110.1
12b.9
100.7
89.8
104.b
113.4
94.3
100.4
111.7
120.3
116,3
1965...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
114.4
l?0.0
87.2
103.3
127.9
93,1
144.0
192.9
195.7
112.5
107,3
104,9
79.5
117,6
131,0
98,0
139.2
186,9
191.8
113.9
109.6
111.8
83.7
120.0
126,0
99.2
154.2
181,4
177.7
120.2
105.1
103.7
90.7
112.7
126.2
107.3
153.0
184.3
164.4
108.9
109.3
97.6
94.3
113.7
116.4
116.4
172.9
176.1
166.4
99.9
112.4
66.6
102.5
113.9
H8.2
U5.8
166.8
188.1
176.7
96.1
112.0
84.4
103.2
117.8
112.0
116.1
181.3
189.2
156.8
89.6
113.1
79.4
107.7
116.9
115.4
122.2
175.6
19b.0
155.9
80.0
H I .1
70.1
112.1
128.3
HO.7
12b.0
174.9
206,2
146.8
73.5
115.7
66.9
112.2
124.5
106.6
137.1
177.5
202.9
121.6
69.9
118.2
66.6
113.7
125.6
104.4
131.7
182.2
192.5
120.8
66.4
119.0
67.2
115.2
121.8
101.3
154.9
186.9
208.5
111.0
72.1
110.4
112.2
83.5
113.6
128.3
96.8
145.6
187.1
188.4
llb.b
106.9
96.0
95,8
113.4
120.3
113,2
164.2
183.5
169.2
101.6
112.1
78.u
107.7
121.7
112.7
121.1
177.3
196.6
153.2
81.0
117.6
66.9
113.7
124.C
104.1
141.2
Ib2.?
201.3
117.8
b9.5
112.3
68.3
100.2
116.2
116.3
110.1
167.4
192.2
Ib7.1
91.9
46.
MAN-HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS2
(ANNUAL HATt, BILLIONS OF MAN-HOUKS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1947...
194fl...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
92.06
93.53
92.53
89.28
98.83
100.59
103.94
100.60
92.19
93.36
92.32
86.93
99.18
101.12
104.53
101.00
92.20
93.94
91.51
90.63
99.81
100.59
104.91
100.65
91,70
92,69
91,33
91.23
99.99
100,26
104.64
100.32
91.62
93.ol
90.b2
92.b9
100,06
100.b9
104.34
99.68
91.12
94,06
89.86
93.53
99.96
99.87
104.29
99.75
91.62
94.36
89.56
94.53
99.92
99.39
104.34
99.63
91.39
94.15
b9.67
96.66
99.74
101.05
103.60
99.50
91.84
93.83
89.56
96.42
99.38
102.53
102.69
99.56
92.38
93.54
88.02
97.08
99.37
102.90
103.36
99.97
92.74
93.65
88.52
97.46
99.70
103.21
102.37
101.03
93.14
93.42
88.98
97.32
100.19
104.29
101.75
101.37
92.15
93.61
92.12
69.61
99.27
100.77
104.46
100.75
91.55
93.52
90.b7
92.4b
100.00
100.28
104.4?
99.98
91,62
94.11
09.60
95.67
99.66
100.99
103.54
99.56
92.75
93.54
68.bl
97.29
99,75
103.47
102.49
100.79
92.02
93.70
90.22
93.81
99.68
101.38
103.73
100.27
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
101.40
107.00
107.78
10?.05
106.23
110.00
107.74
109.92
113.21
114.70
101.96
107.31
108.55
103.27
106.43
110.17
107.82
111.42
113.37
116.55
103.29
106.97
108.26
102.93
107.48
109.62
107.96
112.00
113.38
116.92
103,30
107.35
107.73
102.01
108.20
110.36
107.49
112.59
114,20
116.91
104,59
107.25
107.70
102.24
108.07
109.97
108.->4
112. bl
114.bb
117,38
104.72
Io7.b9
107.59
102.23
109.24
109.83
108.99
U2.94
114.88
117.57
104.96
106.32
107.67
102.59
108.92
109.89
109.40
112.96
115.09
117.95
105.22
107.59
107.78
103.14
107.94
109.77
109.76
113.17
115.12
116.29
105.82
107.69
107.26
104.31
107.81
109.41
109.36
113.68
115.51
118.12
106,06
108.21
106,11
104.29
107.59
109,06
110.13
113.09
115.90
118.54
106.52
106.32
105,76
105.2?
108.04
109.53
110.96
113.45
115.62
119.57
106.97
108.64
105.56
105.62
109.71
106.86
110.75
113.14
115.72
120.49
102.22
107.09
108,20
103.75
106.71
109.93
107.84
111.11
113.32
116.06
104.20
107.40
107.67
102.16
108.77
110.05
108.27
112.78
114.55
117.29
105.34
107,20
107,57
103.3b
108.22
109.69
109.51
113.27
115.24
118.12
106.b?
108,39
105.61
105.04
106.4b
106,48
110.61
113.23
115.01
119.b3
104.57
107.52
107.31
103.58
108.04
109.54
109.06
112.60
114.73
117.75
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
120.76
126.23
131.33
131.48
137.36
139.42
137.89
141.26
146.60
150.88
121.26
127.25
130.27
132.87
137.01
137.99
136.78
141.90
147.73
151.32
121.68
127.96
130.16
132.77
138.14
139.36
137.57
141.98
148.41
151.07
1P1.76
1?7.96
130,02
133,08
138.18
138,92
137.70
142.92
148.74
149,15
122.48
12b.33
130.48
133.73
136.b2
136.23
138.^0
143.06
149,13
151.70
122.50
129.23
130,63
134.28
139.03
130.00
136.32
143.75
149.57
151.29
122.92
129.21
130.87
134.91
139.27
138.21
137.72
143.61
149.88
151.22
123.45
129.62
131.18
135.03
139.31
137.79
138.20
144.17
149.95
151.53
123.56
129.56
131.78
135.37
139.79
137.03
138.39
144.90
lbo.38
151.50
124.28
130.08
131.60
135.80
139.95
136.72
139.03
145.42
150.40
152.62
125.09
130.48
132.66
135.82
139.86
136.32
139.62
146.30
151.74
149.99
125.73
130.64
132.99
136.38
140.32
137.19
140.29
145.97
151.46
148.48
121.23
127.16
130.59
132.37
137.50
138.92
137.41
141.71
147.58
lbl.09
122.25
128.51
130.38
133.70
138.68
138.38
138.10
143.24
149.1b
150.71
123.31
129,4b
131.26
135.10
139.62
137.60
138.10
144.2b
150.07
lbl.42
12b.03
130.40
132.48
136.00
140.04
13b.74
139.65
145.90
151.20
lb0.36
122.96
128.88
131.1b
134.29
138.9b
137.93
138.32
143.76
149.50
150.90
56.
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES3
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOK PERIOD
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
31,lfiO
34,353
35,053
33,632
45,242
43,279
47,760
45,968
31,592
34,131
34,737
34,464
44,583
43,664
48,392
46,435
31,873
34,380
34,489
34,893
43,983
43,296
48,987
46,183
3?,231
34,890
34,169
35,474
43/250
43,767
48/935
46,640
32,774
34,702
33,521
36,666
43,5b6
44,228
48,904
45,866
32/692
35,398
33/648
38,462
43,172
44,346
48,398
46,349
32/088
35,881
33,065
42/054
42/082
43,452
49,372
46,180
32,679
36,053
33,623
43/205
42/807
44,288
48,185
45,796
33,726
36,012
34,189
41/024
42,703
4b,721
47,028
4b,042
34,747
35,864
32,915
40,665
43,193
47,139
47,540
46,011
34,927
35,571
33,275
39,880
43,140
46,853
46,333
47,465
35,409
35,662
32,934
43,028
42,733
47,496
45,602
48,603
94,64b
102,864
104,279
102,989
133,808
130,239
14b,139
13b,586
97,697
104,990
101,356
110,622
129,966
132,341
146,237
138,8bb
99,293
107,946
100,877
126,283
127,592
133,461
14b,385
137,820
105,063
107,097
99,124
123,573
129,0b6
141,466
139,475
142,079
396,716
422,897
405,b38
463,467
520/454
537/529
576/236
5b7/340
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
49,320
53,110
56,568
53,701
57,701
61,306
58,612
64,291
66,372
71,759
49,828
52,874
57,006
52,836
58,714
61,555
58,883
64,287
67,542
71,640
50,744
53,235
56,597
52,305
59,341
61,075
59,625
65,155
67,637
71,395
51,334
53,660
55,770
52/333
60/529
61/660
59/397
65/220
63/208
72/568
51,467
53,76o
b5,6bl
52/7b4
61/377
60/827
60/166
65/lb5
68/176
73/402
51,645
54/124
56,119
53/593
61/333
60/672
61/113
64/736
68/790
73/038
51,885
51,004
56,133
54,071
61,013
60,466
60,553
65,040
70,032
74,143
51,784
53,695
56,682
54,802
59,013
59,927
62,026
65,614
69,240
73,910
52,907
54,439
5b,601
5b,020
56,895
60,374
62,336
6b,885
69,699
7b,302
52,842
55,209
55,513
55,631
58,789
60,185
63,134
66,264
70,565
73,860
53,248
55,613
54,946
56,645
58,466
59,415
63,7o9
67,147
69,792
74,752
53,391
56,255
53,837
bl,011
60,434
59,626
64,022
66,059
71,162
77,155
149,892
159,219
170,171
156,842
175,756
184,436
177,320
193,733
201,551
214,794
154,446
161,552
167,540
158,680
183,239
183,159
160,676
195,111
205,174
219,026
156,576
159,93d.
168,616
163,893
178,921
180,769
184,915
196,539
208,971
223,3bb
159,461
167,077
164,29ft
169,3b3
177,689
179,226
190,865
199,470
211,519
225,767
620/39b
647/766
670/b23
650/768
71b/60b
72 7/590
733/776
784,853
627/215
602/944
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
77,078
84,889
88,204
94,330
100,303
103,974
107,072
116,003
135,962
154,323
77,267
85,468
87,776
94,443
101,171
104,593
108,692
117,998
138,404
156,595
78,830
87,089
68,364
95,218
101,529
103,952
109,815
120,008
140,538
159,735
79/161
86/61O
88/564
95,231
102/228
103/346
110/523
120,871
140,215
160,999
79/144
66/172
8H/832
96,177
102/2.57
104/661
111,892
122,244
141,924
163,048
79/400
87/354
89/538
96/738
102/625
105/182
112,826
12?,O85
141,697
163/539
80,822
86,718
89,26b
98,284
102,817
105,830
112,246
122,855
144,754
166,082
81,117
87,600
90,528
96,144
103,944
105,684
114,016
125,956
145,309
171,229
80,414
88,407
90,869
98,439
104,924
l0b,012
114,040
126,767
145,226
170,355
81,976
88,624
69,859
99,713
106,230
104,486
113,967
129,497
149,196
170,997
83,433
68,133
91,741
100,067
104,978
103,115
116,175
131,164
151,899
167,918
84,05b
88,109
93,584
99,357
104,792
105,863
116,218
133,Obi
150,929
162,347
233,175
257,446
264,344
283,991
303,003
312,519
325,579
3bb,009
414,904
470,653
237,705
260,142
266,974
288,146
307,110
313,191
335,243
365,200
423,636
487,586
242,353
262,925
270,682
292,667
311,685
317,726
340,302
375,b7o
435,289
509,66b
249,464
264,8b6
275,164
299,137
316,000
313,464
346,360
393,722
452,024
501,262
962,697
1/045/379
1/077/184
l/lb4/141
1/237/790
l/2bO/9C0
1/347/484
l/490/b09
1/726/053
1/969/167
DECEMBER
112
1975
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
31.
1948...
1949
195o!!.
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954,,.
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959!..
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
•«.
Apr.
Mar.
June
May
July
Sept.
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
1 Q
Dec.
CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES, TOTAL1
(ANNUAL KATE r BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
II Q
III Q
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE FOP PERIOD
8.6
7.1
4.5
2.0
9.0
11.4
5.1
5.2
5.0
3.0
-0.9
5.2
7.2
2.4
9,6
1.9
29.2
5.7
19.6
-0.3
17.8
-1.1
2.2
5.3
18.4
-0.2
5.4
3.6
16.6
-2.2
8.7
8.3
14.5
-4.5
3.9
7.3
9.4
2.2
5.7
-3.2
5.4
-3.0
9.5
21.9
5.2
-1.0
2.8
17.6
20.0
2.8
9.3
-5.0
24.0
2.5
5.8
-7.1
17.4
3.2
3.7
-3.4
2.3
21.8
1.5
9.1
6.4
13.5
-1.5
6.1
12.2
3.6
2.3
5.0
20.5
4.5
9.1
6.6
3.2
12.7
2.4
7.6
5.1
1.9
0.8
13.1
3.7
fc.O
8.0
-0.1
8.0
6.4
0.9
6.6
5.7
3.0
5.0
6,0
5.6
4.2
14.6
0.7
0.0
1.5
1.2
6.«
6.4
ft.6
1.1
8.9
4.8
4.1
9.9
2.4
-1.3
6.1
5.7
5.9
7.2
4.0
2.2
4.3
5.1
2.5
7.3
4.4
0.8
7.7
14.3
-10.9
5.1
9.0
3.6
-5.7
4.1
11.0
4!2
5.1
9.4
-5.7
8.0
3.0
5.1
7.0
10.7
-2.1
2.1
-l!2
1.4
0.6
6.4
5.2
4,7
13.0
-2,0
7.1
11.3
5.0
-8.6
2.3
1.8
-1.5
4.9
9.2
1.5
2.4
10.6
-5.0
6.6
1.5
5.5
8.9
5.4
7.0
-2.6
-0.5
-3.8
5.3
5*6
5,7
4.7
10,5
9.3
16.9
8.4
5.6
3.2
9.2
4.2
23.0
35.2
6,1
17.5
8.8
9.3
15.0
14.0
11.1
7.4
25.2
36.8
14.3
8.1
5.5
11.6
5.5
12.0
8.1
22.0
35.8
12.3
7.3
15.2
11.9
13.0
11.1
11.6
17.3
24.6
16.6
4.1
15. b
12.2
-0.8
H.5
16.2
28.3
47.7
20.9
2.5
9.7
11.2
13.2
3.3
7.9
30.3
53.0
12.8
16.2
6.6
6.0
12.0
14.3
9.0
8.4
23.7
57.3
12,2
17.1
11.5
13.3
U.3
12.0
13.0
22.9
26.5
53.1
0.1
10,8
2.6
2.6
6.3
-5.2
0.0
71.
-5.2
2.2
5.3
6.7
13.*9
I3!b
4,7
8,6
14.2
b.6
11.6
17.5
17.6
61.5
6.4
7.8
1.8
4.0
5.0
5.#0
b.5
6.7
-6.1
—0•5
1O.*3
3.3
O.'b
0.8
-3.7
2.9
0.9
5.4
4.4
6.0
2.0
0.9
10.1
7.3
5.5
6.2
-o!4
0.9
5.5
9.7
4.9
5.6
7.0
6.5
5.7
18.3
2.4
14.3
13.3
2.2
3.4
14.8
21.4
67.4
9.2
17.2
13.5
7.7
6.7
10.1
-1.5
14.6
34.5
39.4
10.5
15.1
15.8
10.6
13.2
5.1
16.2
22.1
50.7
47.7
10.7
13.7
11.3
7.7
10.7
7.6
10.6
6.6
23,4
35.9
8,7
17.3
4.6
13.5
11.8
8,5
8.6
11.9
25.3
41.8
10.0
15.6
6.3
9,3
12,D
11,0
11,2
16.3
22.6
57.3
8,5
16.9
10.6
10.9
11.1
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES, TOTAL BOOK VALUE1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
-3.0
10.3
10.4
2.1
3.7
—3.0
-3.2
3.6
2.8
5.4
...
• •.
...
9,5
15.9
6.7
10.4
11.5
5.8
0.0
8.2
9.2
17.2
35.5
51.5
13.0
26.7
46.6
52!sl
END OF PEKIOC
...
...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
47.52
53.30
49.66
62.26
70.72
74.01
75.73
48.24
53.33
49.63
63.74
70.63
74.19
75.44
48.83
53.06
50.07
65.27
70.62
74.64
75.12
49.20
52.41
50,37
66.65
70.43
75.37
74,74
49.it
51.87
51.06
67.67
70,05
75.09
74.42
50.11
51.42
51.67
66,65
70.23
76.17
74,04
51.06
51.05
51.40
69.10
69.99
76.96
73.70
51.49
50.81
53.23
69.53
69.91
77.19
73.24
51.92
50.89
54.71
69.53
70.80
77.41
73.17
52.34
50.56
56.38
69,77
71.58
76.99
72.85
52.58
50.10
58.37
69.96
72.06
76.40
73.20
52.51
49.50
59.82
70.24
72.38
76.12
73.18
48.83
53.06
50.07
65.27
70.62
74.64
75.12
50.11
51.42
51.67
68.65
70.23
76.17
74.04
51.92
50.89
54.71
69.5J
70.60
77.41
73.17
52.bl
49.50
59.82
70.24
72.3b
76.1?
73.IB
49,50
59,62
70,24
72.36
76.12
73.1b
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
73.55
80.27
87.85
88.66
37.12
92.78
94.33
96.21
101.22
105.93
73.82
81.33
88.05
88.07
87.52
93.86
94.16
96.81
101.52
106.28
74.45
81.75
88.21
87.62
87.94
94.64
93.69
97.47
101.77
106.70
74,5?
82.84
88.52
86.92
89.16
94.70
93,69
97,60
101.67
107.27
75,02
83.bl
88.bl
86..55
89,69
95,26
93,79
98.34
102.^7
107.01
75,69
R4.04
86,58
86.09
90.51
95.46
93.68
98.85
102.75
108.11
76.24
64.52
86.83
85.79
91.12
95.79
93.86
99.20
103.17
106.32
76.98
84.96
89.42
85.56
91.08
95.48
94.30
99.67
103.65
108.71
77.39
65.63
89.88
65.91
90.65
95.67
94.74
100.39
104.22
109.86
78,33
86.05
89,16
86.10
90.80
95.54
94.85
100.84
104.94
109.83
76.91
86.94
88.99
86,2«
90.70
95.66
95,49
100.92
105,40
110.64
79.52
87.30
89.05
86.92
91,89
94.75
95.65
101.09
105.48
111.48
74.45
61.75
68.21
87.62
87.94
94.64
93.69
97.47
101.77
106.70
75.69
84.04
88.58
66.09
90.51
95,46
93.66
98,85
102,75
108,11
77.39
85.63
89.88
85,91
90.65
95,67
94.74
100.39
104,22
109.66
79.52
87.30
89.05
86.S>2
91,69
94.75
95.65
101,09
105,46
111.48
79,52
87,30
89,05
66,92
91.39
94.75
Vb.05
101.09
10b.46
111.46
1965...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975,..
1976...
112.35
121.71
136.21
146,19
156.31
167.62
176.33
185.06
199.61
227.34
112.86
123.18
138.94
146.97
157.56
168.79
177.25
Ib5.68
201.71
230.40
114.16
124.37
139.62
147.43
158.53
169.25
178.25
186.36
203.55
233.39
114.81
125.39
140.23
148,70
159.52
170.33
179,17
187.32
204.98
235.46
115.H6
126.94
140.57
149,99
160.53
170.^6
180.13
18b,67
207,34
239.43
116.33
128.68
140,7b
150.80
161.46
171.36
180.40
18V.33
209.87
243.85
117.40
130.03
141.50
151.31
162.46
172.55
161.16
190.03
211.84
248.63
113.42
131.46
142.46
152.42
163.40
173.55
182.24
191.94
214.05
253.05
118.82
132.56
142.85
153.13
119.30
134.11
143.06
154.32
165.70
174.29
183.49
194.64
217.30
263.79
120.06
135.55
144.18
154.96
166.26
175.14
183.36
195.85
220,17
267.08
120.94
136.80
145.49
155.64
167.36
175.56
184.71
197.69
224.40
271.05
114.16
124.37
139.62
147.43
158.53
109.25
178.25
166.36
203.55
233.39
116,33
128,66
140.76
150.60
161,46
171,36
180.40
189.33
209.87
243.85
118,62
132.56
142.65
153.13
164,59
174.11
183.21
193.40
215.51
258.16
120,y4
136.80
145.49
155.64
167.36
175.56
184.71
197,09
224.40
271.05
120,94
136,80
145,49
15b.64
107.36
175,56
184.71
197,69
224,40
271.05
164.59
174.11
183.21
193.40
?15.51
258.16
145. WEST GERMANY—INDEX OF STOCK PRICES 2<£J)
(1967=100)
AVERAGE FOR PtRIOQ
!!!
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
9
10
18
14
16
9
10
18
13
16
U
15
13
17
9
12
14
13
19
9
11
16
13
17
8
11
14
13
18
9
11
17
13
17
12
14
14
20
14
15
14
21
1955...
1956...
1957...
1953...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
3 964...
27
31
28
32
54
92
136
118
91
27
30
28
32
54
92
136
117
87
113
28
30
26
33
56
93
134
116
90
115
31
30
26
35
58
98
137
112
93
113
->1
29
28
35
67
114
148
96
104
110
31
29
28
37
73
138
140
69
102
108
32
28
29
38
81
140
130
65
102
110
33
27
29
42
92
170
118
89
107
113
33
26
29
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976!!!
109
107
112
94
125
136
140
123
126
136
110
104
110
94
124
136
138
124
130
142
108
104
108
94
130
137
137
121
135
142
112
102
101
V2
1-Sl
144
1*5
121
lid
l-*0
112
102
96
90
134
145
120
119
136
126
108
100
91
92
137
138
117
120
134
120
103
102
92
104
137
144
122
120
139
U9
104
HI
no
88
124
134
144
U6
118
139
no
x
This series contains
8
fi
8
46
83
151
lid
83
107
112
102
96
108
134
145
117
113
134
116
99
9
15
14
15
23
14
15
23
17
13
15
25
31
28
29
49
82
144
124
63
105
106
29
28
30
49
84
140
128
96
102
106
31
28
30
51
90
138
122
94
105
109
100
93
110
136
151
115
109
131
118
96
97
90
U6
134
156
HO
105
132
112
97
96
90
117
131
151
109
113
131
106
101
9
16
9
9
10
lb
13
16
8
11
15
13
17
9
13
14
14
20
27
28
32
55
92
135
117
89
113
31
29
28
36
6b
117
142
99
100
110
33
20
29
42
85
154
122
86
105
112
107
HI
92
124
135
141
121
125
139
109
103
102
92
132
142
127
120
136
133
111
101
93
101
130
142
119
116
136
116
1C2
30
9
"9
16
14
15
24
12
15
14
19
30
28
30
30
29
29
40
73
126
131
98
100
110
30
6b
141
125
92
104
107
98
91
114
134
153
HI
109
131
112
98
102
99
100
131
143
124
117
132
126
105
i beginning with 1971.
i beginning with 1950.
113
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
46.
Apr.
109
83
72
65
47
34
62
63
72
45
109
77
72
63
40
34
63
67
73
43
110
82
70
59
40
35
66
65
77
41
110
81
68
59
3B
37
64
66
75
41
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
47
67
69
43
50
63
47
61
58
62
49
70
66
40
52
63
46
60
58
61
52
69
67
38
55
60
47
60
59
62
53
70
62
37
59
59
47
60
58
65
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
74
100
103
103
122
76
102
102
102
121
108
78
89
126
116
78
108
99
104
123
103
79
93
127
117
78
104
100
106
124
99
79
95
125
120
78
89
126
117
June
Aug.
July
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
1 Q
Dec.
INUFX OF HELP-rtANTEO ADVERTISING IN NEWSPAPERS1
(1967=100)
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
HO
May
Quarterly
113
b2
62
58
34
43
64
66
67
40
102
80
66
59
33
49
64
67
64
40
69
77
76
62
32
50
63
tib
69
01
37
59
58
49
62
56
t>5
58
68
59
36
62
57
51
60
57
67
60
65
60
40
64
55
51
60
59
69
til
62
106
99
106
120
92
84
97
127
119
82
106
97
109
119
90
85
104
129
118
105
y9
107
U4
V5
80
96
126
119
III Q
IVQ
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PtRIOD
103
78
63
59
35
40
03
65
70
41
102
70
05
D9
38
33
66
65
73
40
II Q
90
76
70
53
30
53
65
74
51
43
87
74
o7
48
29
51
6b
74
46
44
109
81
71
62
42
34
64
67
74
43
10b
76
6b
59
101
bv
6b
bv
ti«
75
70
53
71
61
40
87
77
73
57
31
54
65
74
56
40
37
36
64
6b
73
41
3i
47
64
66
64
4j
30
b3
65
74
bl
42
43
64
68
65
42
63
67
57
41
62
54
53
59
58
68
67
66
56
44
63
52
54
58
5ti
69
65
70
52
45
61
50
57
58
60
69
68
69
47
47
61
49
59
57
59
72
71
67
45
50
62
48
58
57
02
72
49
69
67
40
52
62
47
60
56
62
56
69
ol
37
60
56
49
61
5B
66
6j
6o
b6
42
63
54
bj
59
bd
69
68
69
48
47
61
4<?
D."
b7
60
71
59
66
bb
42
59
56
bd
59
59
67
85
105
101
111
117
88
85
107
126
114
86
104
100
113
124
86
82
103
125
107
92
103
101
119
123
81
83
109
127
99
97
103
100
119
119
80
84
109
126
91
98
102
101
117
lib
61
65
117
122
85
76
103
101
103
122
107
78
90
126
117
80
10b
99
106
123
9b
61
96
126
119
6b
10b
99
111
lku
e.d
84
105
127
113
96
103
101
116
119
61
84
IIP
125
9?
84
104
ICO
110
121
93
«2
101
126
110
1C1
7a
69
b8
36
1973...
1976...
860.
RATIO/ HELP-WANTED ADVERTISING TO PERSONS UNEMPLOYED1
(RATIO)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1943...
1949. . .
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
0.952
0.539
0.251
0.801
1.027
1.165
0.435
0.806
0.418
0.257
0.886
1.020
1.327
0.384
0.732
0.393
0.269
0.924
1.067
1.392
0.338
0.737
0.347
0.308
0.992
1.086
1.295
0.326
0.830
0.30b
0.329
1.0D9
1.038
1.302
0.316
0.793
0.276
0.354
0.940
1.027
1.296
0.344
0.761
0.246
0.410
0.977
0.987
1.201
0.325
0.746
0.234
0.521
0.986
0.956
1.145
0.309
0.602
0.23b
0.536
0.906
1.U92
0.997
0.303
0.751
0.188
0.612
0.882
1.197
0.845
0.325
0.690
0.224
0.609
0.688
1.26b
0.686
0.376
O.b88
0.212
0.576
0.988
1.321
0.466
0.410
0,830
0.45C
0.259
0.670
1.036
1.295
0.386
0.787
0.309
0.330
0.997
1.050
1.316
0.329
0.777
0.233
0.4fc9
0.957
1.012
1.114
0.312
O.t»76
0.20ft
0.599
0.919
1.261
0.672
0.370
...
••.
0.768
0.301
0.419
0.V36
1,090
1.100
0,349
1955...
1956...
1957...
1956...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
0.443
0.748
0.735
0.330
0.366
0.519
0.300
C.445
0.424
0.453
0.491
0.800
0.749
0.277
0.390
0.564
0.283
0.462
0.407
0.462
0.531
0.744
0.795
0.252
0.431
0.479
0.288
0.456
0.431
0.467
0.516
0.787
0.710
0.220
0.492
0.485
0.286
0.457
0.426
0.494
0.6U7
0.716
0.670
0.219
0.505
0.404
0.291
0.478
0.409
0.514
0.639
0.702
0.615
0.229
0.538
0.451
0.311
0.465
0.427
0.523
0.679
0.655
0.639
0.234
0.540
0.427
0.308
0.468
0.434
0.569
0.674
0.739
0.616
0.243
0.515
0.408
0,337
0.438
0.445
0.554
0,744
0.746
0.566
0.272
0.497
0.398
0.344
0,436
0.436
0.553
0.683
o.sio
0.513
0.293
0.405
0.350
0.371
0.454
0.448
0.551
0.726
0.71?
0.4Q5
0.334
0.454
0.337
0.409
0.422
0.423
0.604
0.706
0.715
0.385
0.355
0.50b
0.309
0.413
0.434
0.464
0.587
0.486
0.764
0.760
0.266
0.396
0.521
0.290
0.454
0.421
0.462
0.568
0.736
0.66b
0.223
0.512
0.473
0.296
0.467
0.421
0.510
0.699
0.713
0.608
0.250
0.517
0.411
0.330
0.447
0.436
0.55v
0.726
C.748
0.434
0.327
0.475
0.33?
0.39P
0.4J7
0.445
0.561
0.02b
0.740
0.017
0.272
0.47b
0.434
0.326
0.451
0.431
O.b26
1965...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
0.617
0.996
1.C33
1.065
1.336
1.019
0.463
0.526
0.366
0.747
0.607
1.077
1.042
1.012
1.338
0.933
0.474
0.539
0.847
0.737
0.662
1.113
1.021
1.077
1.350
0.845
0.472
0.551
0.867
0.757
0.646
1.095
1.029
1.165
1.339
0.776
0.475
0.572
0.842
0.787
0.703
1.000
1.006
1.103
1.301
0.723
0.4/4
0.562
0.871
0.755
0.721
1.098
0.985
1.074
1.266
0.662
0.514
0.597
0.878
0.743
0.739
1.097
0.961
1.126
1.236
0.641
0.511
0.778
1.078
1.021
1.194
1.220
0.016
0.495
0.t>40
0.910
0.651
0.8fl6
0.699
0.815
1.106
1.006
1.253
1.214
0.575
0.4b«
0.642
O.d76
0.001
0.871
1.096
0.956
1.318
1.201
0.520
0.494
0.664
0.918
0.532
0.940
1.10b
0.971
1.305
1.241
0.486
0.489
0.719
O.b77
0.450
0.963
1.043
0.996
1.297
1.167
0.477
0.496
0.760
0.825
0.363
0.629
1.062
1.032
1.051
1.341
0.932
0.470
0.539
0.660
0.747
0.690
1.084
1.007
1.13*+
1.323
0.727
0.48S
0.58^
0.864
0.762
0.777
1.094
1.003
1.191
1.223
0.611
0.49«
0.644
0.691
0.670
0.92b
l.Oo?
0.974
1.307
1.210
0.495
0.493
0.721
0.B73
0.4b*
0.75b
1.081
1.0o4
1.171
1.274
0.691
0.487
0.622
0.672
O.o56
COMPOSITE
0.720
2
NDtX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS, REVERSE TREND ADJUSTED
(1967=100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
...
1946...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
29.6
27.7
31.1
35.5
35.5
39.6
37.6
29.2
27.7
31.5
35.2
35.8
39.8
38.1
29.3
27.4
32.1
35.4
36.1
40.2
38.2
29.5
27.4
32.9
35.1
36.0
40.1
38.8
29.5
27.3
33.6
35.0
36.4
39.9
39.6
29.6
27.3
34.1
34.6
37.0
39.3
40.2
29.3
26.0
34.9
34.4
36.8
39.3
40.8
29.1
28.8
35.5
34,4
37.6
38.6
41.1
26.9
29.8
35.0
34.6
38.6
37.7
41.6
1955...
1956...
1957...
195d...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
45.5
«9.3
48.9
45.2
56.6
58.4
55.7
66.5
69.7
77.5
46.6
48.9
48,6
45.3
57.8
57.2
57.4
67.5
70.9
78.2
46.9
49.3
48.6
45.5
59.1
55.9
58,8
67.4
71.6
78.7
47.2
49.4
48.2
46.0
59.5
56.2
60.4
67.2
72.6
80.2
47.7
4S.4
4H.4
47.3
59.7
56.3
61.4
66.1
73.9
61.8
48.0
48.2
48.8
48.9
59.4
56.3
62.5
65.5
73.8
82.0
4b.6
48.5
48.9
49.9
59.5
56.6
62.7
60.3
73.6
83.1
49,0
48.6
46.5
51.3
58.8
57.0
63.8
66.9
73.9
83.9
49.6
4b.9
47.8
52.5
58.5
57.3
63.3
67.6
75.1
85.8
49,4
49.3
46.9
53.5
57.4
57.1
64.6
67.5
75.9
86.3
49.6
49,4
45.8
55.1
57.1
56.7
65.8
68.b
76.4
87.2
49.4
49.4
45.3
55.1
58.2
56.3
66.2
68.9
77.1
87.1
46.3
49.2
48.7
45.3
57.6
57.2
57.6
67.1
70,7
78.1
47.6
48.7
48.5
47.4
59.b
56.3
61. H
66.3
73.4
81.3
49,1
4f..7
46.4
51.2
56.9
57.0
63.3
66.V
74.2
84.3
49.b
4V.4
46.0
54.6
57.6
56.7
65.5
66.3
76.5
86.9
4b.l
49,0
47.9
49,6
56.5
50,8
62.0
67.2
73.7
82.6
1965...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
87.7
93.8
92.9
107.1
122.2
115.5
122.4
139,0
164.5
162.5
R7.9
100.2
93.6
108.7
121.6
114.9
125.0
141.5
166.0
163.2
"8.6
100.9
94.2
108.6
120.6
114.6
127.9
145.0
164.8
166.0
88.6
100.4
94.9
107.5
122.5
115.6
129.1
146.9
164.3
163.4
89.6
99.1
96.2
109.4
122.5
116.0
130,3
147.6
16o.3
163.0
69.9
97.5
V8.9
111.2
122.0
116.0
130.8
148.2
169.7
160.0
91.0
96.6
100.7
113.3
120.9
110.7
131.6
150.1
168.8
159.1
91.5
95.0
103.9
113.3
120.6
116.4
131.2
152.6
166.1
153.5
92.5
94.5
104.7
116.0
120.7
117.0
131.8
156.0
165.3
147.7
93.6
93.3
105.5
118.7
120.8
116.9
134.7
158.6
165.8
142.5
94.8
92.7
106.2
119.9
118.7
117.5
135.4
160.7
166.6
138.7
96.4
92.7
10^.2
121.3
117.4
120.6
137.0
164.0
164.8
136.3
88.1
100,0
93,6
108.1
121,5
115.0
125.1
141.8
165,1
163.9
89.4
99.0
96.7
109,4
1*12,3
115.9
130.1
147.6
166.e
162.1
91.7
<?5.4
103,i
114,2
120.7
116.7
131.5
152.9
166.7
153.H
94.9
92.9
106.6
120.0
119.0
118.3
135.7
161.1
165.7
139.2
91.0
96.6
100.0
112.9
120.9
116.5
130.6
150.a
166.1
154.7
2
ntains revisions beginning with 1973.
This series . ntains revisions beginning with 1948.
114
28.8
30.0
35.1
34.7
38.6
37.5
43.0
28.4
30.3
34.9
34.6
38.ft
37.2
44.1
28.1
30.6
34.9
35.1
39.2
37.3
44.5
29.4
27.6
31.6
35.4
35.0
39.9
38.0
29.5
27,3
33,5
34.9
36.5
39,8
39.5
29.1
28,9
35.i
34,D
37,7
38,6
41,2
2a.4
30.3
3b.0
34,9
38.9
37,3
43.9
34,9
37.2
38.9
40.6
2 V*. 1
28.b
33.6
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
740. AVERAGE HOJRLY FARN INf-S,, PRODUCTION WORKERS IN PRIVATE NONKAKf" ECONOMY
(INDEX: 1967= 100)
III Q
II Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PtRICD
42.6
46,0
4t>,2
bO.O
b3,7
56.4
b9,6
61.7
1952...
1964...
87.2
87.3
87.6
87.7
b7.8
88.0
86.3
88.8
88.9
89.0
89.4
89,8
87.4
87.8
88.7
69.4
63,7
67,0
70,3
73.2
75 8
76 4
80 b
83 5
85 y
66.3
1965...
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
197b..
1976..
69.9
93.5
97.8
103.2
109.8
117.0
125.5
134.3
142.3
151.8
90.3
93.7
98.2
103.8
110.5
117.8
126.5
134.8
142.7
152.8
90.7
94.0
98.5
104.3
111.1
118.5
126.9
135.4
143.3
153.9
90.6
94.6
99.0
104.*
111.6
119.0
127.6
136.6
144.6
154.7
91.2
94.8
99.3
105.3
112.3
91.4
95.2
99.7
106.0
113.0
120.4
129.2
137.1
146.0
158.5
91.7
95.4
100.4
106.5
113.6
121.1
129.9
137.9
147.0
159.2
92.1
95.7
100.6
107.0
114.1
122.2
130.6
138.4
147.7
160.6
92.3
96.2
101.0
107.7
U4.6
122.7
131.0
139.1
148.8
162.0
92.8
96.6
93.0
97.0
101.5
108.3
115.6
123.2
131.3
140.2
149.5
163.3
102.0
10P.8
116.4
123.9
131.6
140.7
150.3
164.2
93.2
97.4
102. b
109.5
116.6
124.5
133.3
141.7
151.2
165.4
90.3
93.7
96.2
103.8
110. b
117.6
126.3
134,8
142.8
152.6
91.1
94.9
99.3
105.4
112.3
119.7
128.6
136,8
145.2
156.6
92.0
95.0
100.7
107.1
114.2
122.0
130.3
138,5
147.d
160.6
93.0
97.0
10?.0
108.9
116.2
123.9
132.1
140.9
150.3
164.3
91.6
Vb',4
100.0
106,3
113.3
120, d
129,4
137. b
14b,o
lbb.o
740-C. PERCENT CHANGtS IN
119.7
128.7
136.7
145.0
156.5
NuF.X OF AVFftAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 3VFR 1-MONTH SPANS
(MONTHLYf KATE* PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR PtRIOD
...
...
...
...
• •.
...
...
...
...
1958...
• •.
...
...
• •.
1964...
...
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
...
0.2
0.3
0.3
...
1965...
1966..
1967..
1966..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.1
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
O.«
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.5
C.5
O.I
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.1
0.3
1.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.7
1.3
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.8
0.5
0.8
0.3
0,4
0.5
O.b
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.5
1.3
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
o. •
0.3
0.4
O.b
O.b
0.6
O.H
O.b
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.6
0,5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.8
740-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN NDEX OF AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS 3VER 6-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE/ PERCENT)
1
0 , 1I
o.:)
Q.t s
0 . :>
O.f >
o.1•
o . f •>
1.0
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
**
1950...
1952...
1953...
••
..
195ti...
1959...
••
••
2.8
1964. . 196b..
1966..
1967..
196b..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
NOTE:
3.4
3,0
3.1
3 6
4 .0
3.5
35
4 0
3 1
4.0
4 1
4.1
3.8
4.1
3.9
3.7
4.4
3.8
3.9
4.1
3.6
3,7
4,0
5.1
6.6
6.2
5.9
7.6
8.3
6.4
7.0
4.7
6.5
6.5
5.8
6.0
8.0
6.1
8.5
4.9
6.9
6.6
6.7
7.7
5.8
6.1
9.6
5.2
6.5
7.1
7.1
7.1
5.4
6.6
9.9
4.9
6.4
6.7
7.6
6.7
5.3
7.2
5.2
6.6
6.6
7.1
6.5
5.5
7.7
5.6
6.8
7.3
7.1
4.5
5.9
7.5
10.4
10.9
5.0
6.7
7.4
7.2
5.5
5.4
6.9
11.5
5.7
6.6
6.3
6.9
6.5
6.9
7.3
9.0
5.8
6.2
6.1
7.4
7.0
6.5
6.7
9.1
6.4
6.6
6.5
7.2
6.5
6.3
7.0
9.2
6.6
6.5
6.7
7.1
6.9
6.1
7.0
8.9
4,9
6,7
6,4
6.1
7.6
7.4
6.2
8.4
10.0
These series are adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
3 b
3 7
3.9
4,0
3.8
3.V
4.4
5,1
4,6
5,4
5,1
6.3
4.5
5,4
6,5
6,9
7,3
6.8
5.4
7.2
10.4
6,8
7,0
7,1
5.5
6.1
7.2
10.i
These series contain revisions beginning with 1970.
6.4
6.U
7.?
6,R
6.3
6.9
9.1
6,6
6,7
6,9
6.7
6.3
6.9
9.5
DECEMBER 1 9 7 5
115
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
741.
May
Apr.
Mar.
June
July
Sept
Aug.
Nov.
Oct.
III Q
II Q
1 Q
Dec.
KEAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS* PRODUCTIO -i WORKERS IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY
(INDEX: 1967= 100)
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
• a •
63 7
63 8
67 5
69 3
69,0
70 9
74 4
76 6
1964...
94.0
1965...
1966...
1967...
1966..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
197b..
1976..
95.9
97,9
99.1
101.1
102.7
103.1
105.1
108.8
111.2
108,4
741-C ,
94. 3
96.
97.
99,
101.
103.
103.
105.
108.
110.
107.
4
4
3
3
0
3
8
6
8
9
94. 5
96.
97.
99.
101.
102.
103.
106.
109.
7
5
5
4
8
5
0
2
no. 4
107. 5
94.
s
96.
97.
99.
101.
102.
103.
106.
109.
110.
107.
5
b
9
6
6
3
3
9
6
4
94. 7
96.
97.
99.
101.
103.
1U3.
106.
109.
110.
107.
7
8
8
6
0
4
6
7
3
6
94. 8
96.
98.
100.
102.
103.
103.
106.
109.
110.
107.
6
1
1
0
2
6
4
8
4
9
95. 0
96.
98.
100.
102.
103.
103.
106.
109.
110.
107.
9
1
3
1
2
9
7
9
8
5
9b. 5
97.
97.
100.
102.
103.
104.
107.
110.
109.
107.
4
8
2
2
2
6
1
1
4
2
9b. 5
97.
98,
100.
102.
103.
104.
107.
HO.
109.
107.
5
1
3
5
2
4
3
3
9
0
95. 5
95, 7
95. 9
94. 3
8
1
6
5
7
3
3
8
5
8
97, 8
98. 5
100. 7
102. 6
103. 7
104. 5
107. 3
110. 9
109. 2
106. 4
97. 7
98. 8
100. 9
102. 9
103. 2
104. 5
108. 3
111. 3
109. 2
106. 4
96. 3
97. 6
99. 3
101, 3
102. a
103. 3
105. 6
106, 9
110. fe
107. 9
97.
98.
100.
102.
103.
104.
107.
110.
109.
106.
PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVEH 1-MONTH SPANS
{MONTHLY RATE* PERCENT)
94. 7
96.
97.
99.
101.
102.
103.
106.
109.
110.
107.
6
9
9
8
9
4
<4
8
4
6
9 5 . ->
97.
98.
100.
102.
103.
104.
107.
110.
110.
107.
3
U
3
3
2
3
0
1
0
2
95. 7
79 4
52 3
83.4
84.5
86 8
86 4
90 2
92 2
93 7
Vb.l
97. e
98. 5
100. 7
102. 7
103. 5
104. 4
107. 6
111. 0
109. 3
106. 5
97.0
96.1
100.0
102.0
103.2
103.9
106.7
110.0
110.1
107.4
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
. ..
1964...
...
1965...
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.6
0.5
-0.1
-0,7
741-C ,
0 3
0
-0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-0
-0
5
5
2
3
p
7
0
4
5
0. 2
0
0
0.
0
-0
0
0
0
-0
-0
3
1
1
2
2
4
4
4
0 5
0. 2
1
3
4
3
p
,p
3
.6
.2
.1
0. 2
0. 0
-o. 1
0. 1
0. 4
0. 1
0. 3
-0. 2
-0. 3
0. 2
-0
0
0
0
-0
-0
0
0
0
-0
0. 1
0 3
1
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
3
3
0
2
1
0
3
0 3
0 1
0 4
-0 4
-0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0.
0.
0.
0.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 5
0
-0
-0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
-0
5
3
1
1
0
7
4
2
3
3
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
-0
0
0
0
-0
1
3
2
3
0
.2
2
.2
.5
.2
0 0
0 2
4
0
2
0
4
1
0
5
4
2
0 0
0 4
0 2
(; 1
0 .0
0 ,2
0 0
0 .1
- 0 .3
- 0 ,4
0
0
0
0
0
-0
0
0
-0
-0
c 2
0
0
0
0
-0
0
0
2
2
4
4
0
0
9
0 4
0 0
0 0
0,
-0
0.
0
0
0
0
0
-0
-0
.
0 3
3
1
2
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
D
3
3
5
PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARN NGS OVER 6-MONTH SPANS
(COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
0
.2
2
2
,1
.0
,1
.2
.0
.1
0. 3
0.
0
0.
0
0
0
0
0
-0
-0
3
0
1
2
0
3
3
2
1
3
0. 1
0.
0
0,
0
0
0
1
2
2
2
0
0
0
3
0 3
-0 2
-0 2
...
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
-0.2
-0.2
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945...
. . .
...
. . .
• .•
...
...
1961...
1962...
1964
1965...
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
NOTE:
116
. . .
2 P
,
2.2
0.0
3.7
2.2
0.3
-0.8
3.8
4.8
-0.4
-3.9
?
?
0 .1
.6
2 .1
0 ,9
- 0 te,
3 ,9
4 ,4
-1 .1
.9
1 .*>
0 .0
2 .8
2 .1
1 .5
0 R
3 .7
2 .8
- 1 .7
- 2 ,2
2 .0
0 .3
2 .4
2 .0
1.0
1 .6
3 .1
2 .1
-0 .8
- 1 .7
These s e r i e s a r e adjusted for overtime ( i n
p n
2 1
2 .1
2 1
2 ,4
1 .R
1 9
2 .5
1
1 6
1 2
1 7
2 1
0 9
1 9
2 5
2 0
- 0 .9
- 1 .1
2 .7
0 .6
1 .3
1 .6
2 .0
2 .0
1 .9
1.7
- 1 .9
- 1 .0
2 .1
1 .5
1 .8
1 .5
1 .3
2 .1
1 ,4
2 .2
- 1 .9
- 2 .2
2 .3
1,H
1 .6
1 .3
0 .1
1 .6
3 .5
2 .6
- 2 .2
-2 .9
2 .2
2 .1
1 .5
1 .2
- 0 .2
2 .3
4 .0
2 ,4
- 4 .2
- 2 .3
0 .1
3 .1
2 .3
1 .6
0 .2
2 .3
3 .2
1 .3
- 2 .6
-1 .1
0 .1
2 .8
2 .1
0 ,7
0 .4
2 ,9
3 ,7
0 .2
-4 ,3
0 .4
2
0
1
1
c
p
2
?
-2
-1
7
8
4
6
b
6
6
2
u f a c t u r i n g only) and i n t e r i n d u s t r y employment s h i f t s .
2 .0
0 .3
3 .0
2 .1
0 .9
- 0 .2
3 .8
4 .0
-1 .1
-3 .0
2 ,3
2 .2
2 .1
1 .9
0 .8
1 .9
2 ,0
0 .8
2,0
2 .7
2 .2
- 1 .4
- 1 .3
2 ,4
1 .2
1• 0
1 .o
1.1
1 .9
2 .3
2 • <i
- 2 .0
-2 .0
0 .8
2 .7
2 .0
1 .2
0 .1
2 ,b
3 .6
1.3
-3
- 1 .0
These s e r i e s c o n t a i n r e v i s i o n s beginning with 1970.
1.8
1.2
2.1
1.7
0.7
1.6
3.1
2.4
-2.1
-1.8
DECEMBER 1975
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
1 Q
745.
II Q
III Q
AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION, ALL EMPLOYEE^
NONFAKM ECONOMY
(IMUEX: 1967=100)
...
1945
194b
1947
1946
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
37.' 0
40.6
43.1
44.1
43.1
51.5
54.2
56.5
...
...
37.9
41.3
43.0
44.8
49.2
51.6
54.9
56.7
1955
1956
] 957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
5*.l
6l!o
65.2
57.8
71.0
74.1
75.7
79.?
81.9
85.2
58.8
62.2
65.9
68.3
71.6
74.7
77.0
79.8
82.3
86.1
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
88.3
92.7
97.7
104.8
111.7
119.a
127.4
135.6
144.9
155.3
89.3
94.4
99.3
106.3
113.6
121.2
129.7
137.3
147.0
159.6
IN PKIVATt
AVEFAGE
. • .
36.4
41.b
43.1
4o.b
49.5
52.2
5b.1
57.0
6.8
1.6
9.5
8.6
6,4
5,5
4.3
60.0
64.2
67.5
69.6
72.7
75.0
78.3
81.1
84.2
88.1
59.1
62.o
66,2
66.7
71.6
74. b
77.0
60.1
82.6
86.8
1955
1956
1957
I9b6
I9b9
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
2.9
6.6
6.P
2.0
6.9
7.9
3.7
5.1
3.9
4.5
91.5
97.2
102.3
110.4
117.8
124.9
132.6
141.4
152.4
Ib7.3
89,6
95.0
100.0
107.4
114.6
122.4
130.6
138.b
148.7
161.6
196b
1966
1967
1966
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
197b
1976
0.9
5.4
2.2
. •.
38. P
42.4
43.2
45.7
49.9
52.?
55.6
57.1
59.4
63.1
66,7
69.1
72.0
74,9
77.5
80.3
83.0
87.4
90.2
95.6
100.8
108.2
115.3
124.1
131.7
139.2
149.6
163.5
...
...
••.
...
9.3
7.9
0.6
9.?
1 ,R
5.9
9.2
4.5
6.3
3.0
1955
195b
1957
I95o
1959
I960
1961
196?
1963
1964
4.0
6.3
5.6
3.7
1965
1966
1967
1966
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
7.7
5.6
4.4
3.1
2.b"
8.9
7.1
b.4
4.1
2.6
4.2
4.0
3.4
3.6
3.4
5.2
4.1
7.0
5.1
3.5
4.?
3.?
4.3
3.7
3.8
4.6
5.0
7.0
3.9
4.7
4.4
2.2
4.7
3.4
4.0
3.2
6.0
5.4
7.3
6.6
7.8
6.1
5.7
7.4
9.4
3.9
6.2
5.3
8.0
6.7
6.3
6.1
6.6
7.8
9.8
5.0
5.4
7.3
6.6
7.2
6.7
6.5
6,9
7.2
10.0
3.7
...
9.0
4.2
4.2
9.7
5."
6.0
3.3
3.5
5,9
5.9
3.6
4.6
4.3
3.1
3.7
3.1
4.6
3.d
5.7
5.2
7.1
6.9
6.8
7.0
5.8
7.0
8.6
8.9
746-C, CHANG E FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN rcEAL AVG. HRLY. COMP.
ALL EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY
(ANN,K A TE,PERCENT)
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950.....
1951
1952
1953
1954
0.0
5.4
11.0
-7.4
4.8
6.3
3.4
2.6
6.6
3.4
195b
1956
1957
1956
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
3.2
0.2
-0.2
3.1
5.0
1.2
3.7
2.3
5.1
5.6
7.4
2.8
3.4
2.7
2.9
-0.4
1.5
0.8
4.9
-0.6
-0.3
4.3
5.3
3.8
-3.9
1.9
3.8
4.5
2.2
0.8
0.3
3.4
2.5
-2.5
0.1
6.3
NOTE:
...
0.7
0.3
2.7
0.7
7.0
1.3
1.2
3.6
-2.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1
...
...
...
These s e r i i
...
746.
AVERAGE
...
...
...
6.9
2.3
0.4
7.4
b'.4
4.5
3.1
4,8
b.6
4.fc
4.2
4.3
3.1
4.0
3,4
4.0
4.3
••,
,,,
•. •
4.1
5.2
6.3
7.0
5.9
6.0
6.6
5.9
8,6
9.0
lu.l
6.?
5,6
7.0
2.6
2.6
6.6
6.0
10.1
9.6
3.5
b.8
b.2
7.4
b.7
6.6
b.7
b.l
7.3
8.7
KEAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION1, ALL EMPLOYEES IN
PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY
(INDEX: 1967=100
AVERAGE
10.1
4.o
6.5
6.0
9.3
10.2
7.8
194b
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
I9b3
I9b4
195b,....
I9b6
I9b7....,
I9b6
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
...
56.9
57.4
bC.O
62.5
62.5
65.1
68.0
70.0
72.4
75,6
78.4
78.7
81.7
84.1
84.7
87.6
89.7
91.9
94.2
96.6
98.8
102,2
103.9
104.7
109*.5
112.5
109.7
4.3
1.7
1.0
5.0
0.4
1.1
0.9
1.3
1.1
5.4
2.8
3.2
2.9
3.9
1.4
-2.0
3.7
3.2
4.8
1.5
3.9
4.4
2.2
1.0
3.6
2.3
2.2
2.6
2.2
3.4
1955
1956
1957
1958,....
1959
i960
1961
1962
1963
1964,....
4.3
4.2
?.9
Ul
2.2
1.9
0.1
5.5
2.3
1.9
3.8
3.0
2.3
3.3
3.0
-2.9
0.4
2.7
-1.6
-2.6
1.8
2.8
2.4
3.1
1.2
0.6
2.3
2.8
1.0
1965
1966
1967..,,,
1966,....
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1.5
2.7
2.6
2.6
0.9
2.0
1.7
2.5
0.5
-1.7
-2.0
-2.1
-0.6
6.4
9.3
2.4
5.1
1.8
•4.9
£.5
4.3
2.9
3.5
3.2
o.9
2.8
1.9
4.2
4.6
7.6
6.7
6.1
7.2
6.2
7.6
5.1
5.9
11.b
...
...
...
0.7
4.7
3.8
2.0
1.7
5.6
2.9
2.1
1.3
3.3
2.6
2.1
2.4
2.0
4.1
-1.9
6.9
3.1
10.9
b.6
8.6
5,b
3,2
3.7
5,6
3,4
6,6
3.6
6.0
5.8
3.6
4.4
3.9
3.3
4.0
3,4
4.8
...
...
...
57.4
57.4
60.0
b2,9
63.2
bb.3
b6.6
70,4
57.6
5«.O
60.7
63.0
b4.2
65.3
69.0
71.0
57.4
59.2
60.9
b3.7
64.3
67,0
69,4
71.9
57.3
b6,0
60.4
63.1
63.6
6b.7
66.8
70.8
73.3
76.8
70.5
7S.6
02.3
64.3
06.1
06,1
90,0
92.7
74.0
77.1
76.7
79.7
62.4
84.5
66,3
88 ,4
90.2
93.9
74,6
77.7
79.3
80.b
82.6
84.1
37.1
89.1
91.3
94.3
73,6
76.9
76,6
79.4
62.2
84.1
85.9
06,3
90.3
93,4
94.7
97.5
99,9
102.8
104.2
104.7
107,4
110.2
111.7
1U9.7
95.3
97.9
100.4
103.3
104,2
106.2
105.C
110.7
111.3
109.2
96.2
98.6
101.0
104.1
10b.0
10b.4
103,1
111.4
110.8
108.5
9b. 0
97.7
100.0
103.1
104.4
105.2
107,7
110.6
111.7
109,4
746-C. 4-QTR PERCENT CHANGES U-. RtAL AVG. HOUKLY COMP., ALL
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NO,MF A HM ECONOMY 2 (ANN. KATE, PERCENT)
2.1
3.6
• • .
. • •
• • .
. ••
• •.
1.2
2.6
2.4
3.6
6.3
4.2
0.4
10.6
2.3
5.1
9.0
0,9
...
PERCENT CHANGE1
4.U
6.8
4.9
4.2
3.9
0.5
4.2
4.4
6,0
3.4
1.1
4.1
4.5
0.7
3.3
4.8
3.0
...
. •.
-1.4
...
10.2
••.
...
10.2
4.5
6.0
4.6
4.8
2.5
194b
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
I9b2
1953
1954
...
• • .
1.3
4.1
4.9
0.4
6.5
0.3
.,,
4.9
1969.....
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
PERCENT CHANGE 1
. •.
• *•
9,b
7.0
-0.2
12.9
b.6
b.6
IV Q
1.5
7.9
6.2
2.9
4.0
2.6
196b
1966
1967
7.6
9.5
III Q
11.2
4.4
5.7
6.3
7.2
7.0
6.1
II Q
745-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING HERIuD Ii\ AVG. HRLY. JCKP., ALL
(ANN. PATE, PERCENT)
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
.••
39.7
42.9
43.1
47.1
50.7
53.4
b5.9
57.6
...
...
9.7
6.1
1 Q
IV Q
745-C. 4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES IN AVG, HOURLY COMP,, ALL
(ANN. KATE, PEKCENT)
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY2
1945
1946
1947
1946
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
Annual
Year
...
...
...
3.3
2.7
4.6
1.0
4.1
3.6
3.6
3.7
4.3
2.0
1.5
2.7
1.7
3.6
2.3
2.4
3.3
2.0
2.5
2.4
3.1
0.6
0.6
2.6
3.1
-0.6
-2.1
...
...
...
...
0.8
4.6
a. 1
O.O
0.0
4.b
4.9
0.5
3.2
5.2
2.6
4.1
4.2
4.5
2.9
3.4
4.7
3.5
0.4
3.8
2.9
0.6
3.7
2.1
?.5
?!3
3.5
1.7
0.9
1.7
2.8
2.7
-2.5
-1.0
4.8
2.2
0.3
4.4
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.1
3.1
2.1
3.0
2.5
2,9
1.3
0.7
2.5
2,6
1.4
-1.8
-0,7
AVERAGE
...
_5t j
4.1
2.2
2.6
3.9
3.7
3.5
4.4
3.6
1.2
2.8
2.6
1.6
2.9
2.2
2.5
3.0
2.2
2.5
2.6
2.2
0.6
1.7
2^
-1.1
-1.4
DECEMBER 1975
Y e a r - t o - y e a r chai
117
G.
E x p e r i m e n t a l D a t a a n d Analyses
Selected Components of New Composite Index of Leading Indicators
(NOV.) (OCT.)
P
T
(JULY)(MAY)
P
T
(AUG.)(APR.)
P
T
(APR.) (FEB.)
P
T
(DEC.) (NOV.)
P
T
l l l | l l l j f t l | l l l | M i l M i l l M i l l M i l l I I I I I I M M 11 M M | i j i | l 1 1 I I 1 1 M i l || || I I I 11 I I I I I I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 J T I ' t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
35
30
X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars ( b i l . dol.)
CM
25 -^
20 1
15
12
10
100. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,
ent, U
1967 dollars (bil. dol.)
^
^A/fp^^/^
'
0
4
X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.
+30
+20
r
\AW
+10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
X201.
+4
Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1 (percent)
+2
0
-2
200
X108. Money balance (Ml), 1967 dollars (bil. dol.)
\
ED
190
180
170
+1.5
X136.
Percent change in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent)
+1.0
+0.5
0
1111111 [{{[ I 11 11 111111 11 11 M i l 11 11 111111 11 l i t 1111111 M i l l 111111111111 111111 1111111 111 11111111 f h 111 1111 11111111 1111
1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Current data for these s e r i e s are shown on page 120. The new leading index i s shown on pages 37 and 83.
^Series i s a weighted 4—term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed a t the terminal month of the span.
118
Jj
*
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Selected Components of New Composite Indexes of Coincident and Lagging Indicators
(JULY)(MAY)
P
T
(NOV.) (OCT.)
P
T
TTT TTT TTT TTT I I I I 1 I 1
rmrn
(AUG.)(APR.)
P
T
TTT TTT TTT TTT
(APR.)(FEB.)
P
T
(DEC.) (NOV.)
P
T
TTT TTT ITT TTT rrr TTT TTT nr TTT TTT TTT m TTT TT1 TTT
Coincident Indicators:
800
ED
700
^
600 ^
X234. Personal income less transfers, 1967 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
500 «
400
140
120
56D. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1967 dollars (bil. dol.)
100 3
-J 60
Lagging Indicators:
X1. Average duration of unemployment (weeks-inverted scale)
71D. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1967 dollars (bil. dol.)
14
16
18
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
EB
X251. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income (percent)
3
"
^
Z
|
"
14
12
10
8
6
4
MI
mm
in in in IN ui
i l l I L LI L L M LILL ILL I L L l t i l i M M
-* 2
III 111 M l
1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Current data for these series are shown on page 120. The new coincident and lagging indexes are shown on pages 37 and 83.
119
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Current Data for Selected Components of New Composite Indexes
X213. New
orders,
consumer
goods and
materials,
1967 dollars
10D. Contracts and
orders for
plant and
equipment,
1967 dollars
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
January
February
March
29,135
29,833
30,085
9.13
9.06
9.37
April
May
June
29,806
30,ADI
30,022
9.11
July
August
September...
29,694
29,801
29,229
October
November . . .
December . . .
30,134
29,608
28,750
Year
and
month
X201. Percent change
in sensitive
prices, WPI
crude materials excluding
foods and
feeds,
smoothed1
X108. Money
balance (Ml),
1967
dollars2
X136. Percent change
in total
liquid
assets,
smoothed1
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
10.70
10.84
11.32
1.12
0.95
0.90
200.8
200.4
198.8
0)1.12
1.07
0.99
632.2
637.1
639.7
113,828
114,801
115,040
11.0
10.5
10.6
177.59
178.19
178.55
12.61
12.66
12.73
11.51
13.25
17.44
1.16
.59
.08
198.4
199.5
200.6
0.99
1.06
1.10
639.3
639.8
640.0
114,052
114,412
113,253
10.0
10.1
9.7
178.56
179.21
180.15
12.78
12.88
12.93
0)21.33
19.97
16.81
2.16
1.85
1.90
200.5
197.0
196.3
1.06
0.98
0.89
115,622
113,469
113,511
9.7
9.9
9.5
181.06
181.24
181.56
13.01
13.05
13.02
16.38
17.79
18.97
2.36
3.27
3.88
195.3
195.8
196.0
0.79
0.71
0.72
643.5
644.2
0)649.5
649.1
649.3
645.2
115,632
0)116,827
114,166
10.1
10.0
0)9.3
182.45
183.63
185.92
13.05
13.10
13.05
10.02
9.76
13.47
6.35
0.65
4.06
4.42
4.94
193.4
192.8
192.4
0.82
0.89
0.88
636.1
631.8
628.2
115,120
114,863
115,054
9.5
9.6
9.5
186.96
187.93
188.07
13.14
13.12
13.13
X170D. Net
change in
inventories
on hand and
on order,
1967 dollars,
smoothed
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
X234. Per56D. Manusonal income facturing and
less transfer trade sales,
payments,
1967 dollars
1967 dollars
(Mil. dol.)
X I . Average
duration of
unemployment
71D. Manufacturing and
trade inventories,
1967 dollars
X251. Ratio,
consumer
installment
debt to
personal
income
(Weeks)
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
1973
9.40
10.03
10.08
9.75
9.70
0)10.62
10.42
9.95
1974
January
February
March
28,034
28,025
0)30,931
9.72
April
May
June
28,192
28,970
28,579
10.14
10.39
9.80
-2.77
-2.70
0.30
0)5-46
4.02
1.61
192.1
190.8
190.7
0.90
0.92
0.90
625.0
624.2
621.7
114,528
114,370
113,228
9.8
9.6
9.8
188.06
188.83
189.91
13.14
13.14
0)13.14
July
August
September...
28,351
28,334
27,096
10.40
9.15
9.25
2.05
-3.26
-10.85
0.95
1.70
2.26
189.4
187.3
185.3
0.82
0.67
0.52
623.9
622.6
620.2
113,542
113,097
110,918
10.1
9.9
9.7
190.37
189.84
190.25
13.07
13.11
13.05
October
25,854
24,356
21,569
8.36
7.86
8.42
-13.75
-13.38
-13.78
1.29
0.18
-0.53
184.2
183.8
182.9
0.44
0.46
0.48
617.1
609.7
606.6
109,379
105,651
101,699
9.8
9.8
10.0
191.71
191.73
192.78
13.01
12.98
12.84
20,655
21,152
20,831
7.13
7.06
7.00
-11.71
-18.34
-25.60
-1.39
-1.70
-1.28
180.0
179.5
180.6
0.48
0.51
0.60
602.7
598.7
596.6
101,286
102,174
99,870
10.7
11.7
11.4
0)193.26
191.53
190.12
12.81
12.80
12.74
April
May
June
22,536
22,777
23,114
7.83
7.80
7.42
-28.13
-24.81
-21.50
-0.41
0.45
0.99
180.1
181.1
182.6
0.68
0.73
0.86
597.1
602.0
603.3
101,382
101,917
102,805
12.9
13.4
15.4
189.61
187.60
185.87
12.64
12.51
12.25
July
August
September..
24,285
24,931
24,933
7.60
r8.26
r7.l6
-18.50
-11.38
r-4-32
0.84
0.42
0.71
180.8
180.9
180.4
0.98
0.91
0.70
604.4
610.7
615.6
103,877
105,079
rlO5,O91
15.4
15.7
16.2
185.32
185.73
rl85.12
12.37
12.24
12.18
October....
November . .
December . .
r24,916
p23,939
r7.23
P7.33
p-3.70
(NA)
1.11
0.68
178.8
P179.4
rO.55
p0.62
r6l6.1
p6l9.3
plO5,628
(NA)
15.4
16.8
pl84.76
(NA)
P12.l6
November . . .
December . . ,
1975
January
February
March
,
(NA)
NOTE: Graphs of these series are shown on pages 118-119. Historical data were shown in the May and November 1975 issues of
BCD. The new composite indexes, are shown on pages 37 and 83. The old leading index is shown on page 121. Series are seasonally
adjusted. Current high values are indicated b y 0 ) . The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; and "NA", not
available.
1
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
2
Series X108 reached its current high value (200.9) in December 1972.
120
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Old Composite Index of Leading Indicators
(NOV .) (OCT.)
P
T
(JULY)(I*AY)
P
T
(AUG.) (AF>R.)
P
T
(DEC.) (NOV.)
(APR • MFEB.)
P
T
T T n T n T r r T M T T T T T F T u T F T I I I I H " T i l I I I I U M l I I I I I I I I I I I II I I II I III l i m n in III I I I I I I I I I
Index: 1967=100
DD
Old I n d e x e s of 1 2 Leading Indicators
( s e r i e s 1, 5 , 6 , 1 0 , 1 2 , 1 6 , 1 7 ,
19, 23, 29, 3 1 , 1 1 3 )
Ratio
Scale
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
810.
Reverse trend adjusted
1
80
70
811.
140
130
120
110
100
90
Prior to trend adjustment
70
11 li HI 11111111111111 Illll 111111111111ii [ 11111111 til 11111111111111111111111111111111111 hit 11111111111111111111
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
Series 810:
Series 811:
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
197319741975-
155.9
167.8
153.2
158.8
170.2
153.4
161.3
172.3
152.5
159.7
173.0
157.6
162.9
175.6
159.5
164.3
176.0
164.5
165.6
Sept.
Oct.
rl70.1
167.3
177.9
rl72.0
165.1
172.2
174-0
166.8
168.3
175.9
197319741975-
121.5
125.1
109.1
123.3
126.3
108.9
124.8
127.5
107.8
123.1
127.4
111.0
125.1
128.9
111.9
126.2
125.7
128.7 E>130.8
115.0
rll8.5
127.0
129.2
rll9.4
124.9
124-5
120.3
125.7
121.3
121.1
E>179.6
Aug.
Nov.
Dec
168.1
162.8
2
178.6
165 .6
159 .3
126.2
116.9
122.5
123 .9
113 .9
3
Current high values are indicated by [fl); "r" indicates revised.
-••Reverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators (series 820).
Excludes series 16, 31> and 113 for which data are not yet available.
3
121
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS
This number indicates latest calendar
month of data plotted
(9 = September).
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the current business recovery beginning with the tentative trough date, March 1975. (This date is based on the new composite index of
coincident indicators.) To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective, cyclical paths
over generally similar historical periods are shown. The graphic presentations of the data for the
selected periods are superimposed according to a special chart design, explained below:
1. The objective of the chart is to compare the pattern
of the current business recovery with corresponding
historical patterns to facilitate critical assessment of
the amplitude, duration, and severity of the indicators'
current movements.
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
Series number, series title
Designations: "Coincident," "Leading,"
"Lagging," and "Unclassified"
indicate
the NBER timing
classification for the
series.
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
This
scale shows
deviations
(percent
differences) from reference peak levels.
• 130
-
0
2. The vertical line represents reference trough dates.
The current business recovery, beginning with the tentative business cycle low in March 1975, and the corresponding historical periods, beginning with May
1954 and April 1958,are presented so that their trough
dates are placed ak>ng this vertical line.
125
• 120
This
scale shows
actual series units and
applies only to the
current business cycle
(heavy solid line).
115
110
3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at
the current tentative business cycle high (November
1973). It also represents data levels at the selected
earlier business cycle peaks, July 1953 and August
1957. The peak levels are aligned along the horizontal
line for each business recovery depicted.
—>—15
I M I I I I I I I I I I I
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
+18
This scale measures
time in months before (negative side)
and after (positive
side) business cycle
trough dates.
4. For most series, deviations (percent differences)
from the current peak level are computed and plotted.
For series measured in percent units (such as the unemployment rate), these units (actual data) are plotted
rather than deviations from reference peak levels. The
numerical values of these deviations are shown in the
tables accompanying the charts.
6. In each chart, four curves are shown. One curve describes the current business recovery (heavy solid l i n e , * " " ) .
Two curves describe the 1954 and 1958 business recoveries (knotted line,« • • •, and starred line,*-*!*-*, respectively). The final curve (broken l i n e , - - - - ) represents the median pattern of the five post-World War II recoveries
(those with troughs in 1949, 1954, 1958, 1961, and 1970).
5. For series that move counter to movements in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an
inverted scale is used; i.e., declines in data are shown as
upward movements in the plotted lines, and increases
in data, as downward movements in plotted lines.
7. The business cycle (reference) peaks and troughs used in these charts are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research as follows: peaks, Nov. 1948 (IVQ 1948), July 1953 (II Q 1953), Aug. 1957 (IIIQ 1957),
Apr. 1960 (IIQ 1960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969); troughs, Oct. 1949 (IVQ 1949), May 1954 (IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958
(IIQ1958), Feb. 1961 (IQ 1961), Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970).
NOTE: November 1973 and March 1975 are not designated a business cycle peak and trough. These tentative, benchmark dates for the current business cycle have been selected
on the basis of the performance pattern of the new composite index of four coincident indicators. They serve as a means of current economic analysis and may be changed as more
information becomes available.
122
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
"I
11111111111 M 11 r
I
Four coincident indicators, composite index
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS
REF.
FROM
TROUGH
11/73
I irn-mrnI M M I I I M MIT
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
FOUR COINCIDERS
1967=100
I Coincident \
1 II 1 11 1 1IIII1 1 11 1 Deviations
from
preced.
peak
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
| Coincident \
-8.6
-12.2
-14.4
-16.0
162.8
152.5
149.7
11/74
12/74
1/75
2/75
147.0
3/75
-17.
-16.
-16.
-15.0
147.6
148.8
149,
151,
4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75
-13.2
-11.9
-11.3
-10.8
154.7
157.0
158.1
159.0
8/75
9/75
10/75
11/75
• 80000
> 79000
+1
0
• 78000
SERIES 41
THOUS.
• 77000
0.5
-0.3
-0.8
-1.5
78374
77723
77319
76804
11/74
12/74
1/75
2/75
-1.9
76468
3/75
-1.7
76462
76510
76343
76679
4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75
-1.2
-0.9
-0.6
-0.5
77023
77310
77508
77549
8/75
9/75
10/75
11/75
-2
• 76000
-3
> 75000
1958
SERIES 47
1967=100
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production index
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
-4.5
-7.9
-10.8
-12.8
121.7
117.4
113.7
111.2
11/74
12/74
1/75
2/75
-13.7
110.0
3/75
-13.8
-13.6
-12. 9
-12.0
109
110
111
112.2
4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75
-10.4
-8.9
-3.5
- 3 .4
114.2
116.1
116.6
116.8
8/75
9/75
10/75
11/75
| Coincident \
|
CURRENT MONTH
AMD
ACTUAL
YEAR
DATA
SERIES 43
PERCENT
1954"
I M I I I I I I I | \ I I I
-12
-6
| | | | | | | 1 1 | 1 I | | | | | | |
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
+18
4
3
2
1
6.6
7.2
8.2
8.2
11/74
12/74
1/75
2/75
0
8.7
3/75
1
2
3
4
8.9
9.2
8.6
8.4
4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75
5
6
7
8
8.4
8.3
8.6
8.3
8/75
9/75
10/75
11/75
-
8
-1 9
I M I M I I I I I I
-12
-6
0
I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
NOTE: NOVEMBER 1973 AND MARCH 1975 ARE NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK AND TROUGH. THESE TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATES FOR THE CURRENT
BUSINESS CYCLE HAVE BEEN SELECTED ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF FOUR COINCIDENT INDICATORS
THEY SERVE AS A MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE
123
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
1111111111111111111
T I 111 r i r r
rrjTrrrrpr
205. GNP in 1958 dollars
I
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QUARTER
FROM ACTUAL
AND
REF.
11/73
DATA
YEAR
TROUGH
-2
SERIES 205
ANN.RATE,
BIL.DOL.
-2.7
823.1 I I 1/74
-1
-4.9
Percent
+10
• •920
-7.8
+8
-7.3
• 900
+6
+4
+2
-4.4
780.0 1/75
783.6 11/75
808.6 I I 1/75
• 330
.360
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
• B/,0
SERIES 114
PERCENT
7.18
6.49
5.58
12/74
1/75
2/75
• 320
5.54
3/75
4/75
5/75
6/75
• 800
5.69
5.32
5.19
6.16
• 780
6.46
6.38
6.08
5.47
8/75
9/75
10/75
11/75
-2
-4
-6
1975
804.0 1V/74
ms
5.50 12/75
770. Index of output per man-hour
i
• 125
DEVIQRTRS
ATIONS
FROM
FROM
REF.
TROUGH 11/73
+8
-2
-1-4
i 1111111111 i i i 1111 i 11 11111111111 1
-12
-6
0
+6
+12 +18,
Months from reference troughs
-2
-2.4
112.0 1 1 1/74
-1
-3.7
110.5
1 V/7 4
0
-3.9
110.3
1/75
1
-2.9
111.5
1 1/75
2
-0.3
114.4 1 1 1/75
• 120
+2
0
781c. Change in consumer price index
6-month spans, centered
SERIES> 770
1967=100
+6
+4
CURRENT QUARTER
ACTUAL
AND
DATA
YEAR
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
• 115
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AMD
DATA YEAR
SERIES 781
PCT.CHANGE
-4
-3
-2
-1
10.4
8.5
7.8
6.6
0
6.6
3/75
1
2
3
4
7.6
6.8
7.2
7.4
4/75
5/75
6/75
8.1
8/75
11/74
12/74
1/75
2/75
His
11111111111111111111111111111 I I 11
-12
-6
0
+6
+12 +18
Months from reference troughs
NOTE: NOVEMBER 1973 AND MARCH 1975 ARE NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK AND TROUGH. THESE TENTATIVE, RENCHMARK DATES FOR THE CURRENT
BUSINESS CYCLE HAVE BEEN SELECTED ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF FOUR COINCIDENT INDICATORS.
THEY SERVE AS A MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
124
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Twelve leading indicators, composite index
i
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
Actual
data
for
cu rren t
cycle
DEVI^
MONTHS
FROM AT IONS
REF.
FROM
TROUGH
11/73
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
TWELVE LEADERS
1967=100
Percen
-,+15
CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
DATA YEAR
+10
• 130
-5
97.1 11/71*
95.0 12/7U
91.F 1/75
91.0 2/75
0 -24.6
91.8
3/75
-22.3
-20.6
-18.1
-16.2
94.6
96.6
99.7
102.0
4/ 7 5
5/75
6/75
7/75
-15.7
-15.8
-16.1
-15.8
102.6
102.5
102.1
102.5
+5
• 120
-20.2
-21.9
-24.7
-25.2
5
F
7
8
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
' 14.0
-h
-3
-2
-1
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
-.+75
• 130
• 160
8/75
9/75
10/75
11/75
• 120
SERIES
-10
1941-43=10
-15
-20
-J-25
90
X170D. Net change in inventories,
smoothed, end of span
I
-34.3
-28.9
-21.5
67.07
72.56
80.10
12/74
1/75
2/75
-17.9
83.78
3/75
1 -17.0
2 -11.7
3 -9.4
4 -9.4
84.72
90.10
92.40
92.49
4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75
5
6
7
8
85.71
84.67
8 8.57
90.07
8/75
9/75
10/75
11/75
• 100
1975
19
-16.0
-17.0
-13.2
-11.7
9 -13.5
• 100
• 80
88.28 12/75
Actual
+20
SERIES X170D
ANN.RATE,
BlL.DOL.
•i-30
+10
-4
-3
-2
-1
+20
-31.17
-31.57
-29.50
-36.13
-13.38 11/74
-13.78 12/74
-11.71 1/75
-18.34 2/75
0 -43.39
-25.60
3/75
1 -45.92
-42.60
-39.29
4 -36.29
-28.13
-24.81
-21.50
-18.50
4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75
5 -29.17
6 -22.11
7 -21.49
-11.38 8/75
-4.32 9/75
-3.70 10/75
• +10
-10
-20
SERIES 29
1967=100
-4
-3
-2
-1
-30
1975
-45.0
-40.3
-50.8
-50.0
66.4 11/74
72.1 12/74
59.4 1/75
60.4 2/75
0 -51.7
58.3
3/75
-40.3
-34.9
-32.3
-25.7
72.1
78.6
81 O 3
89.8
4/75
5/75
6/75
7/75
• -20
-40
M.I
-12
I.
,1
I
-6
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
I,
+18
5
6
7
8
-29.1
-21.9
-23.0
-20.3
85.7 8/75
94.4 9/75
93.0
10/75
96.3 11/75
111111111111111111111111111111111 i i
-12
-6
0
+6
+12 +18
Months from reference troughs
NOTE: NOVEMBER 1973 AND MARCH 1975 ARE NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK AND TROUGH. THESE TENTATIVE
BENCHMARK DATES FOR THE CURRFNT
BUSINESS CYCLE HAVE BEEN SELECTED ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF FOUR COINCIDENT INDICATOR?
THEY SERVE AS A MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE
125
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
escriptions
issue date) issue date)
A
Accession rate, manufacturing
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Capacity, manufacturers' adequacy
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturers', book value
Inventories, manufacturers', condition of
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Orders, new, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Prices, selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturers'
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Expenditures, personal consumption, NIA
Gross auto product, constant dollars, NIA
2
*61
D61
416
435
D446
412
414
D450
D440
D462
D460
D466
D464
D442
410
D444
234
249
20
74
12/75
8/68
46
54
84
84
85
84
84
85
S4
85
85
85
85
85
84
85
12/74
12/74
1/75
1/75
12/74
1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
1/75
12/74
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11
18
70
72
9/74
9/74
10/69
27,43,44 7 8 , 8 4
46
45
45
46
45
45
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
45
Q
Balance of payments
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net . . . .
Liabilities liquid
Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid
Liquidity, net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position, U.S. official
Reserve transactions balance
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income, military sales and services
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad, U.S. direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases
Total, general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad U S payments by
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates - See Interest rates.
Banking and other capital transactions, net, BOP
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing - See Credit.
Budget - See Government.
Building - See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, ratio to consumer goods
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl . . . .
Business failures current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories - See Inventories.
Business loans - See Bank loans.
Buying policy, production materials
575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522
53
49
49
252
542
560
540
536
546
506
508
564
502
548
544
253
543
49
53
50
50
88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
49
48
50
87
86
87
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
1/75
10/75
49
87
10/75
51
52
53
51
51
52
48
48
53
48
52
52
87
88
88
87
87
88
86
86
88
86
88
88
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
8/75
8/75
10/75
1/75
10/75
10/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
51
52
87
88
10/75
10/75
5/69
5/69
541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545
•72
112
51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52
33
87
88
87
88
88
86
88
88
82
81
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
1/75
10/75
10/75
4/75
4/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/72
11/72
575
53
88
10/75
5/69
26,40
78
96
4/69
11/68
11/68
11/68
25
84
81
77
77
12/75
3/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
6/75
6/75
28
79
11/74
12/74
*29
853
*61
D61
14
*12
13
49,51
36,43
62
27,43,44 78,84
46
34
25,39
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
8/68#
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
C vilian labor force, total
Coincident indicators, four, Cl
Coincident indicators, four, Cl, rate of change
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
• private nonfarm
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Compensation of employees, NIA
Compensation of employees, as percent of national
income NIA
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm percent change
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders
Four coinciders, rate of change
Lagging indicators, six
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
Twelve leaders original trend
Twelve leaders, reverse trend adjusted
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Pnntrartc total \/nlup
Contracts awarded for commercial and indus. bldgs. .
Expenditures, business, and machinery and
equipment sales
Housing starts
Residential structures, GPDI, constant dol., NIA . . .
Residential structures, GPDI, current dollars, N I A . . .
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures, personal - See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Corporate profits - See Profits.
Costs - See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, change in
Current account, balance, BOP
Current account and long-term capital, balance, BOP . . . .
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) issue date)
60
37
65
94
83
6/75
11/75
4/72
11/75
36,43
33
82
81
4/75
4/75
10/72
11/72
745
58
92
12/75
10/72
745 C
280
59
16
92
71
12/75
10/74
10/72
10/69
280A
19
73
10/74
10/69
746
58
93
12/75
10/72
746C
59
93
12/75
10/72
740
58
92
12/75
6/72
740 C
59
92
12/75
6/72
741
58
92
12/75
6/72
741C
859
748
749
53
59
58
59
59
23
92
92
93
93
76
12/75
8/75
10/74
10/74
8/74
6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68
37
65
37
83
11/75
11/75
83
11/75
11/75
38
38
38
38
38
37
37
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
8/75
8/75
8/75
8/75
5/75
12/75
5/75
5/75
26,40
25
26
78
77
77
12/75
4/69
6/75
27
26
18
12
62
36
34,41
34
78
78
72
70
96
82
81
81
8/74
4/75
9/74
9/74
3/75
3/75
3/75
8/75
9/68#
6/72
56,66
56
56
56
56
45
90,103
90
90
90
90
84
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
1/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/68
*10
25,39
77
4/75
9/68
112
110
*72
66
*113
39
33
517
519
33
34
36,43
36
34,41
34
33
49
49
81
81
82
82
81
81
81
87
87
4/75
10/74
4/75
3/75
3/75
8/75
4/75
10/75
10/75
11/72
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72
625
547
546
621
616
648
647
264
55
52
52
55
55
55
55
14,55
89
88
88
89
89
89
71,89
9/75
10/75
10/75
9/75
9/75
8/74
8/72
10/74
39
296
34
17
81
72
8/75
10/74
11/72
D61
D11
46
63
84
97
12/74
10/75
11/68
841
*72
112
814
815
813
816
817
*29
8
9
69
28
248
244
853
66
*113
39
781
781C
783
782
784
435
26
416
850
97
11
D11
296
45
62
27
26
63
17
84
96
78
77
97
72
1/75
8/74
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/74
814
35
34
38
31
31
83
80
80
8/75
8/74
8/74
11/68
10/69
1/72
1/72
Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Military expenditures abroad, U.S., BOP
Military sales to foreigners, BOP
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
Orders, new, defense products
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services, NIA
Deficit - See Government.
Deflators - See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Depreciation, NIA
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
126
10/69
11/68
10/72
10/72
11/72
D
C
Canada - See International comparisons.
Capacity, manufacturers', adequacy of
Capacity, ratio of output to
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, mfg., newly approved
Capital appropriations newly approved Dl
Capital consumption allowances, NIA
Capital investment - See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, net, corporate, current dollars
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
5/69
5/69
.....
9/68#
10/69
10/69
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Diffusion indexes-Con.
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components.
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, avg. wkly., unemployment insurance . .
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Orders, new, durable goods industries
Orders, new, durable goods industries, components .
Orders, new, manufacturing
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods, components
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, retail stores
Sales, retail stores, components
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg.,
components
Disposable personal income - See Income.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
D446
D41
D41
Tables
Charts
46
85
64
98
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
12/74
12/75
11/68
D23
D23
D47
D47
D5
64
98
63
98
63
97
10/74
4/69
100
3/75
101
D450
47
85
06
D6
63
97
D440
46
84
D19
63
97
D462
0460
D466
D464
47
47
85
47
85
47
85
D58
D58
D34
64
98
63
97
D442
D444
46
85
46
85
D54
D54
D1
64
98
8/75
12/74
10/74
6/69
11/68
12/74
10/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
7/75
11/68
5/69
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
6/69
99
85
102
102
63
D1
97
10/75
12/74
12/74
3/75
.. . . .
12/75
11/68
11/68
6/72
99
2
841
842
20
74
60
94
60
94
D446
46
85
*41
D41
D41
46
860
21,41
75
*5
D5
3
48
48
813
21
42
843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
•1
Dl
D1
12/75
6/75
6/75
12/74
12/75
8/68
4/72
4/72
11/68
8/68
12/75
12/75
12/75
12/74
100
64
98
21
74
62
96
20,39
74
63
98
20
74
21
74
65
38
83
20
74
21
75
60
94
60
94
60
94
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
20,39
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
74
99
97
63
6/69
6/69
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#
12/74
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
8/68
12/75
119
817
211
250
500
252
502
253
512
250
35
82
38
83
56
90
13
71
48
86
13
71
48
86
13
71
48
86
13
71
6/74
11/73
8/75
8/74
9/74
1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
250A
19
73
9/74
10/69
93
35
82
10/74
11/72
G
Government - See also Balance of Payments and Defense.
Budget, NIA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
Government surplus or deficit, total
602
601
600
298
54
89
54
89
54
89
17
72
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74
7/68#
7/68#
7/68#
10/69
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
570
53
88
10/75
5/69
263
18
72
Federal Government, current dollars
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
National defense
State and local governments, constant dollars
State and local governments, current dollars
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars, NIA
GNP constant dollars NIA
262
14
19
14
14,55
71
18
72
10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/74
10/74
10/74
10/74
11/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
11/73
10/69
10/69
262A
260
264
267
266
73
71
71,89
14
71
266A
19
73
249
18
9,18,23,
42,61
69,76,
*205
72
9/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
69
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
1/75
1/75
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
56
90
8/74
211C
56
90
8/74
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
46
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to number of persons
unemployed
860
Hniiri nf nrnrinrtinn wnrkpr^ mannfartnrinn
Average weekly overtime
21
Average workweek
*1
Components
D1
Diffusion index
D1
Housing
Housing starts
28
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits
*29
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
248
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA . . 244
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .
244A
Vacancy rate, rental housing
857
21
74
12/75
62
96
12/75
20
20,39
74
74
12/75
12/75
63
97
12/75
26
78
26,40
6/72
4/69
12
19
78
72
70
73
62
96
4/75
12/75
9/74
9/74
9/74
5/74
9
69
69
69
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
16
71
10/74
10/69
19
73
10/74
10/69
58
92
12/75
10/72
59
92
12/75
10/72
58
93
12/75
10/72
59
10
93
69
10
69
12/75
8/74
8/74
10/72
10/69
10/69
10
69
10
69
9/74
9/74
10/69
10/69
58
92
12/75
6/72
59
92
12/75
6/72
58
92
12/75
6/72
59
92
12/75
8/75
10/75
10/75
10/74
10/74
10/75
6/72
10/72
5/69
5/69
10/69
10/69
5/69
5/69
10/69
7/68
10/69
GNP, constant dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, current dollars, NIA
GNP, current dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, current dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
GNP, potential, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars, NIA
Per capita GNP, current dollars, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, differences, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, percent changes, NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, change in, NIA
Gross private domestic investment - See Investment,
capital.
205B
205C
*200
200B
200C
95
65
69
69
9,23,42
69,76
69
65
69
207
61
95
206
217
215
210
210B
210C
61
95
9
69
211
9
69
9
69
69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
H
1 IUUI J
6/75
8/75
12/75
12/75
3/75
8/75
12/75
5/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
3/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
12/75
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
f-ppjprfll
finvprnmpni* pnnctpnt HnllnrQ
CUClQl UUVCI 1 II 1 ICI 1 If UUIloLOIIL UUIIOlo
1
F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government - See Government.
Final sales - See Sales.
Financial flows, sensitive, Cl
Fixed weighted price index, NIA
Foreign series - See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments.
Balance, goods and services, NIA
Balance, merchandise trade
Exports, goods and services, NIA
Exports, merchandise, excl. military aid shipments. .
Imports, goods and services, NIA
Imports, merchandise
Net exports of goods and services, NIA
Net exports of goods and services, percent of
GNP, NIA
France - See International comparisons.
Free reserves
Government-Con.
Government grants and capital transactions, BOP
Government purchases of goods and services, NIA
100
E
Earnings - See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components.
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed . . . .
Initial claims, average weekly, unemployment
insurance
Initial claims, avg. wkly, unemployment insur., Dl . .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagric. establishments, rate of chg...
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, production workers, mfg
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed persons in civilian labor force, total . . .
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over . . . .
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, white
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing
Workweek, production workers, mfg., components..
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing, Dl .
Equipment - See Investment, capital.
Exports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Ul
pi UUUUUUI!
VVUI IXGIO,
12/74
iliailUIUOLUI I l l y
12/74
8/68
99
18
10/69
10/69
10/72
1
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Differences
Percent changes
Imports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.
210
210B
210C
t nrnmo
Compensation of employees, NIA
280
Compensation of employees, as percent of
national income, NIA
280A
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
745
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
745C
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
746
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
746C
Disposable personal income, constant dollars, NIA . . 225
Disposable personal income, current dollars, NIA . . . 224
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant
dollars, NIA
227
Disposable personal income, per capita, curr. dol., NIA
226
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
740
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
'..
740C
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
741
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
741C
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
859
Income on foreign investments in U.S., BOP
543
Income on U.S. investments abroad, BOP
542
Interest, net, NIA
288
Interest, net, percent of national income, NIA
288A
Investment income, military sales and services, BOP .
540
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services BOP
541
National income, NIA
220
Personal income, monthly
*52
Personal income, NIA
222
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
286
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment, percent of national income, NIA
286A
58
92
52
52
16
88
72
19
73
51
87
88
10
87
69
23,42
76
10
69
10/75
8/74
8/74
8/74
16
72
10/74
10/69
19
73
10/74
10/69
51
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
127
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Income-Con.
Proprietors' income, NIA
Proprietors' income, pet. of national income, NIA . .
Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, percent of national
income, NIA
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices, Dl
Industrial production -Seealso International comparisons.
U.S., components
U.S., Dl
U.S., index
U.S., rate of change
Insured unemployment
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur. . .
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur., Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net, NIA
Interest, net, as percent of national income, NIA
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term, bank rates
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, residential
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Inventories
Business inventories, change in, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales, ratio, mfg. and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Inventory valuation adjustment - See Profits.
Manufacturers', book value
Manufacturers', condition of
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies, manufacturers', change in,
book value
Materials purchased, higher inventories
Production materials, buying policy
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial .
Construction contracts, total value
Construction expenditures, business, and machinery
and equipment sales
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods . . . .
Gross private domestic investment, NIA
Equipment, producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in - See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, current dollars
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
Total
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
282
282A
284
284A
748
749
53
23
D23
D23
16
19
59
59
23
30,40
63
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
issue date) (issue date)
71
73
71
10/74
10/74
10/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
73
93
93
76
79
100
97
10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
10/74
10/69
6/72
6/72
7/68
4/69
10/74
4/69
3/75
3/75
11/74
11/68
11/68
D47
D47
h
47
47
64
23,42 67
65
D5
45
288
288A
20,39
63
22
16
19
6/75
8/75
3/75
10/74
10/74
6/69
6/69
10/69
10/69
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
36,43
35
35
36
35
36
35
35
10/75
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
12/74
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
133
136
137
138
132
781
135
66
66
66
66
66
56,66
103
103
103
103
103
90,103
103
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
7/75
11/74
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
5/69
9/72
123
126
127
128
121
122
*47
125
67
67
67
67
67
67
23,42,67
67
103
103
104
104
104
103
76,103
104
9/75
9/75
9/75
9/75
9/75
9/75
3/75
9/75
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
68
68
68
68
68
68
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
12/74
12/75
10/74
10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/75
12/74
8/75
10/69
10/69
f
143
146
147
148
142
19
145
101
98
76,103
10/72
11/68
10/72
271
275
246
245
245A
65
851
815
18
12,28
19
29
62
38
71
71
72
70,78
73
79
96
83
412
414
•71
*31
D450
45
45
29,43
28,40
47
84
84
79
78
85
1/75
1/75
12/75
12/75
12/74
11/68
11/68
2/69
2/69
11/68
20
37
26
28
28
28
79
78
79
9/75
4/75
11/74
9/68
12/74
12/74
97
11
D11
814
27
26
63
38
26
25
78
77
97
83
10/75
10/75
10/75
853
27
62
10/69
10/69
9/68
2/69
8/75
6/75
8/74
3/75
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
nvestment, capital-Con.
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . .
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . .
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures, Dl
nvestment, foreign, BOP
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Income on foreign investments in the U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investment income, U.S., military sales and services
U.S. direct investments abroad
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
taly - See International comparisons.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
lumber
24
10
61
D61
26
25,39
27,43,44
46
560
564
543
542
541
540
561
565
8/74
4/75
12/74
12/74
9/68
9/68
11/68
11/68
53
53
52
52
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
51
51
53
53
10/75
10/75
10/75
10/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
32
32,43
32
8/74
8/74
8/75
7/b«
11/68
10/72
32
30,41
8/75
8/74
10/72
11/68
37
20
11/75
12/75
11/75
8/68*
530
7/74
5/69
532
14
521
10/75
4/75
10/75
5/69
48
48
813
12/75
3/75
8/75
8/68#
8/68#
102
7/75
7/75
10/72
10/72
103
33
118
7/75
4/75
6/74
77
78,84
84
Japan -See International comparisons.
.abor cost per unit of gross product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy .
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy,
percent change
Labor cost, price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six, Cl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators - See Composite indexes.
Liabilities, liquid, to all foreigners, BOP
Liabilities, liquid and certain nonliquid, to foreign
official agencies, BOP
Liabilities of business failures
Liquidity balance, net, BOP
Loans - See Credit.
63C
M7
M
Machinery - See Investment, capital.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, rate of chg. .
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments and Foreign
trade.
Military - See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply (M1)
Money supply plus time deposits (M2)
Money supply, time deposits and deposits at
nonbank thrift institutions (M3)
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, residential
National defense - See Defense.
National Government - See Government.
National income - See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
Defense products
Defense products industries
Durable goods industries
Components
Diffusion index
Export orders, durables except autos
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI, NIA
Constant dollars, total
Current dollars, total
Percent of GNP, total
Structures
24
MO
648
647
*6
D6
D6
506
508
D440
247
241
241A
242
26
25,39
55
55
25,39
8/74
4/75
8/74
8/72
8/74
63
48
48
46
10/74
8/75
8/75
12/74
18
12
19
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
128
9/68
9/68
9/68#
9/68
8/68#
11/68
10/69
10/69
10/69
9/68#
11/68
243
247
241
241A
242
248
244
244A
240
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders - See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output, labor cost per unit of
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy, change in .
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Overtime hours of production, mfg., avg. weekly
9/75
121
*62
770
770C
858
850
21
32,43
58
59
58
62
20
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
Historical
Series
data
lescriptions
issue date) issue date)
8/74
8/75
8/75
8/75
8/74
12/75
11/68
10/72
10/72
6/68
12/74
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
e complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Serie:
data
lescriptions
issue date) [issue date)
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Historical
Series
lescriptions
data
issue date) issue date)
Sales
Personal consumption expenditures, NIA
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, except autos
Nondurable goods
Services
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income - See Income.
Plant and equipment - See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditures for, Dl
Contracts and orders for
Potential gross national product
Price indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators, NIA
Fixed weighted, gross private product
Fixed weighted, gross private product, change in
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Differences
Percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime rate charged by banks
Producers' durable equipment, GPDI, NIA
Production - See Industrial production and GNP.
Production materials, buying policy
Production of business equip, to consumer goods, ratio . .
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy,
change in
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, NIA
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment,
percent of national income, NIA
Corporate, undistributed, plus inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, net, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to income originating in corp. bus. . . .
Proprietors' income, NIA
Proprietors' income, percent of national income, NIA . . .
Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories
Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, as percent of national income,
NIA
Reserve position, U.S., BOP
Reserve transactions balance, BOP
Reserves, free
Residential structures - See also Housing.
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA . .
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .
Salaries - See Compensation.
234
232
233
236
237
231
230
230A
11
11
11
11
11
11,18
11
19
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
D61
M0
206
27,43,44
46
25,39
61
12/74
12/74
4/75
1/75
11/68
11/68
9/68
90,103
90
90
90
90
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
90
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
4/69
10/74
8/74
4/69
11/68
781
781C
783
782
784
56,66
56
56
211
211C
210
210B
210C
73
D23
D23
M7
63
30,41
M9
D19
30,40
63
79
97
10/74
10/74
5/69
5/69
750
752
751
55
55C
58
D58
D58
57
57
57
31,57
57
31,57
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
30,41
91
91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
80
7/75
8/74
6/69
11/68
D462
D460
D466
D464
109
243
47
47
47
47
36
12
85
85
85
85
82
70
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
6/74
9/74
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/73
10/69
26
853
28
62
79
96
11/74
3/75
12/74
11/68
59
58
8/75
8/75
10/72
6/68
30
30,41
16
8/74
8/74
10/74
1/72
7/68
10/69
286A
10/74
10/69
294
D34
D442
15
816
22
282
282A
10/74
10/75
12/74
8/74
8/75
8/74
10/74
10/74
10/69
37
4/75
30,40
90
69
69
69
79
100
97
770
770C
858
18
•16
11/68
3/69
Final sales, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade . . .
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturers' sales, total value
Manufacturing and trade sales
Manufacturing and trade sales, net, Dl
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
Saving, NIA
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income . . .
Profits, undistributed corporate, plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit, government
Securities purchases, BOP
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Selling prices - See Prices, selling.
Sensitive financial flows, Cl
Shipments, ratio of manufacturers' unfilled orders to .
State and local government - See Government.
Stock prices - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus- See Government.
Transportation and other services, payments, BOP . . .
Transportation and other services, receipts, BOP
Travel
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad, BOP
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S., BOP .
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Unemployment
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed,
ratio
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur. . .
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur., Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Persons unemployed, civilian labor force
Unemployment rates
Both sexes, 16-19 years
Females, 20 years and over
15 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
Males, 20 years and over
Married males, spouse present
Negro and other races
Total
White
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
Unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods indus. .
United Kingdom - See International comparisons.
270
274
273
57
851
15
15
18
24
62
71
71
72
76
96
10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
12/74
10/69
10/69
27
45
24,42
46
24
24,42
78
84
8/74
1/75
12/75
12/74
4/75
3/75
9/68#
11/68
2/69
11/68
64
3/75
6/72
296
290
292
854
17
17
17
62
10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68
294
298
17
17
10/74
10/74
10/69
10/69
564
565
53
53
10/75
10/75
5/69
5/69
817
852
38
62
8/75
8/74
9/68
30,40
63
10/74
10/74
5/69
5/69
549
548
52
52
10/75
10/75
5/69
5/69
545
544
114
115
52
52
35
35
10/75
10/75
6/74
6/74
5/69
5/69
7/64
7/64
*5
D5
3
843
62
20,39
63
20
60
12/75
6/75
8/75
12/75
6/75
6/69
6/69
8/68#
4/72
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
60
60
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
6/75
6/75
6/75
3/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
27
29
62
8/74
8/74
8/74
9/68
9/68
9/68
5/74
11/74
10/72
12/74
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
7/75
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
7/75
12/75
6/69
8/68
410
*56
D444
59
*54
D54
D54
*19
D19
96
25
852
85
76
76
102
6/72
7/68
10/69
10/69
Vacancy rate in rental housing
Vendor performance
857
32
10/74
284A
534
522
93
19
50
49
35
10/74
10/75
10/75
10/74
248
244
244A
18
12
19
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/69
5/69
11/72
10/69
10/69
Wages and salaries - See Compensation.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods, Dl
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, mfg., components .
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl .
750
752
751
55
55C
58
D58
D58
•1
D1
D1
57
57
57
31,57
57
31,57
64
20,39
91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
74
99
97
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
7/68
2/69
@FedFRASER