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Financial Deregulation Historical Perspective and Impact o f the Gam-St Germain Depository Institutions Act o f 1982 Gillian Garcia and The Staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CH ICAGO Staff Study 83-2 Financial D e r e g u l a t i o n Historical Perspective and Impact of the Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 by Gillian Garcia and The Staff of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Staff Study 83-2 March 1983 i Preface The Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act, which became law in October 1982, has been called the most significant legislation for depository institutions since the 1930s. This is an exaggeration, particularly as the same claim has also been made for the current act’s predecessor, the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980. Nevertheless, the 1982 act is important, particularly for thrift institutions. Moreover, it has implications for commercial banks and bank holding companies. These institutions, together with savings and loan associations, provide the principal depository institution competition in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. Consequently, as was done earlier for the 1980 act, a special issue of the Bank’s journal, Economic Perspectives (March-April 1983) is devoted to examining the Garn-St Germain Act’s implications for these institutions and also for the conduct of monetary policy. This staff study presents, in greater detail, the research conducted by the Bank’s research staff and consultants— research that is summarized in the Economic Perspectives special issue. The study was directed and edited by Gillian Garcia, who would like to thank her coauthors, the library and office staffs and, particularly Yvonne Peeples, for their support and co-operation in the project. Contents Preface i Introduction Gillian Garcia 1 History Leading to the Act Gillian Garcia 3 Risks in Intermediation............................................. Steps Toward Ending Regulation Q ................................... Increased Asset Powers................................................ Congressional Response to the Financial Crisis...................... The Main Features of the Act Gillian Garcia Sources of Funds...................................................... Uses of Funds and Other Powers................................... . Emergency Powers...................................................... Summa ry............................................................... The Impact on Commercial Banks Elijah Brewer The Industry Since 1950............................................... Legislative Content................................................... Outlook for the Industry.............................................. The Implications for Bank Holding Companies David R. Allardice 3 6 7 8 11 11 12 14 17 18 18 22 26 28 Interstate and Across-Industry Acquisition Powers...................... 28 The Insurance Activities of BHCs...... .............................. 32 Section 23A - Impact on Holding Companies........................... 36 Bank Service Corporations........................................ Conclusion..................................... The Impact on Savings and Loan Associations Herbert Baer 39 The New Asset Powers.................................................... The Potential Benefits from Asset Diversification..................... Raising New Income............................... Reducing Risk. ........................................................ Factors Inhibiting the Adoption of the New Powers................... Tax Considerations.................................................... 50 56 60 The New Liability Powers.............................................. The Effect on Costs................................................. The Effects on Liability Duration.............................. Toward Ending the Threat of Disintermediation......................... 72 72 73 75 The Emergency Powers.................................. The Characteristics that Distinguish Distressed Institutions........ Past FSLIC Policies Toward Failing S&Ls............................... The Growing Inappropriatiness of FSLIC Policy....................... The Net Worth Certificate Program..................................... Summary......................................... 76 77 80 81 82 43 47 36 Contents Due on Sale Provisions Thomas F. Cargill and John Dobra Steps Toward Reinstating the Clause................................. Interpreting the Reinstatement...................................... A Re-Examination of Deposit Insurance George G. Kaufman Risk-Sensitive Premiums............................................. Deposit Insurance Coverage.......................................... Implications for Monetary Policy 89 91 93 94 96 Gillian Garcia, Anne Marie L. Gonczy and Robert D. Laurent 97 Influence Over the Final Economy............. Control Over the Aggregates.............................. Conclusion........................................................... Appendix The New Accounts and MMMF Competition....................... What Remains to be Done 88 Larry R* Mote 97 100 104 105 106 Is Deregulation a Good Thing?........................................ Progress Toward Deregulation......................................... Conclusion...................................... 106 108 Footnotes.............................................................. 118 References 123 1 Financial Deregulation: Historical Perspective and Impact of the Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 The United States1 well-functioning financial markets have contributed to its economic growth and continuing prosperity. Recognizing this, successive governments have been eager to avoid dysfunction in those markets or sections of them. This is particularly so as such dysfunction has been judged to have seriously contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s. Consequently, as the 1970s progressed and it became increasingly clear that the financial position of the thrifts and, to a lesser degree, the commercial banks was deteriorating, continued efforts were made to alleviate their problems. These attempts (summarized below) led to the most recent legislation, the Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982. This paper offers an analysis of the Garn-St Germain legislation. It provides background material for the current (March-April, 1983) edition of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Journal, Economic Perspectives, that is devoted to the legislation. It will examine the history leading to the act and the state of the thrift and banking industries that prompted its passage. It will then summarize the main points of the legislation, and discuss its likely impacts. Particular attention will be given to the act’s implications for the commercial banking, bank holding company, and savings and loan industries, for these are the principal depository institution competitors in this, the Midwestern section of the United States. It will discuss briefly 2 the act’s solution to the due-on-sale controversy, the issues underlying Congress' mandate for an inquiry into deposit insurance, and the likely impact on monetary policy. The study will conclude with an examination of the issues that still remain to be addressed in order to insure the prosperity and efficiency of U.S. depository institutions. 3 HISTORY LEADING TO THE ACT In the past, the savings and loan associations, mutual savings banks, and credit unions that constitute the thrift industry, have been in the business of credit risk, denomination, maturity, and interest rate intermediation. That is, traditionally they have purchased small denomination, short-term deposits in order to make larger, longer-term fixed rate loans. Their intention has been to profit from this intermediation by charging a higher rate on their loans than that paid on their deposits.^ It is the maturity imbalance aspect of the thrifts1 business, together with a traditional inability to revise the interest rate or other terms of the loan on the occurrence of unforeseen events, that has presented the industry’s recent serious problems. Risks in Intermediation Such intermedtiation exposes depository institutions to three risks. The first is the traditional and recognized risk of default. Coping with this risk has remained the responsibility of management, although the current problems of potential default by several foreign governments and some large U.S. corporations is testing this responsibility. The second risk arises from the possibility that depositors may unexpectedly withdraw their deposits and the institution may not have enough liquid assets to meet the demand-liquidity risk. Central banks in general — and also the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) and the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) in the U.S. — to limit exposure to this risk. have long acted as lenders-of-last-resort 4 The third danger occurs when market interest rates rise unexpectedly. In a world where depository institutions pay market interest-rates on their liabilities, rising interest rates raise costs and put pressure on profits. This pressure is particularly acute for institutions that have made long-term loans at fixed rates, the traditional form of mortgage contract in the United States since the 1930s. This predicament — interest rate risk — is o particularly characteristic of the savings and loan industry.^ It has been exacerbated by an inability, in some states, to enforce due-on-sale clauses in mortgage contracts, thus extending the contract beyond its expected life. Avoiding undue exposure to this risk has remained management’s responsibility. But a pervasive inability to handle this risk among savings and loan associations (S&Ls) and mutual savings banks (MSBs) has caused Congress to intervene. During the past 2-3 years the position of this industry has deteriorated so severely as to provide the principal impetus for the current legislation. 3 Increasing pressure on thrift earnings, arising from rising market interest rates, provided a persuasive argument for the 1966 extension of interest rate ceilings on deposits to thrifts in addition to commercial banks, on which ceilings were imposed in 1933. The extension was intended to help thrift profitability by insuring that their sources of low-cost funds would be channeled particularly to mortgage lending, housing industry. thus sustaining demand in the In time however, deposit rates — in the face of rising market interest rates — fixed under Regulation Q led to the disintermediation that became a recurring problem at peaks of the business cycle. rapid disintermediation can lead to a liquidity crisis. Sudden and Liquidity crises are potentially life-threating to depository institutions, if the lender-of-last- 5 resort does not satisfy their liquidity needs. to sell assets. Then institutions are forced As the market value of assets is reduced by the higher interest rates, liquidation does not provide sufficient funds to pay off depositors and insolvency ensues. One way to prevent disintermediation is to allow thrifts and banks to pay market rates on their liabilities. The problem here is that those institu tions have followed customary practice and are, therefore, carrying a portfolio of fixed-rate long-term assets acquired in an earlier period at low rates, so that they may not be able to afford the higher rates. If they are forced to pay such rates in order to prevent disintermediation, profits will be sharply reduced or eliminated, as they have been in recent years. An industry with continuing years of negative earnings cannot remain viable. Congress and the industries' regulators have made a succession of attempts to alleviate these problems. During the 1960s and 1970s large depositors, having ready access to alternative instruments paying market rates, were successful in getting banks and thrifts to pay market rates on large (over $100,000) certificates of deposits, repurchase agreements, etc. It has taken much longer for the smaller saver to gain the same opportunity. However during the 1970s, efforts were made to prevent small-saver disintermediation. Permission was granted for financial institutions to pay rates above the low, regulated passbook savings deposit rate. In this way a hierarchy of Regulation Q rates for time deposits of increasing maturity was created. To obtain higher rates the saver was encouraged to extend the maturity of his certificate. The intention here was to lengthen the average maturity or, more precisely, the duration, of the liability portfolio to reduce the gap between assets and liabilities and also to discourage disintermediation by placing penalties on early withdrawals. 6 Steps Toward Ending Regulation Q As interest rates continued their trend upward, the regulators made several concessions toward permitting market interest rates to be paid to the small-saver. The first step was the short-lived Mwild-cardM certificate introduced in 1973. For a short period this allowed uncapped rates to be paid on a limited amount of long-term certificates of deposit. The second attempt, resulting from court action that overruled the regulators* objections, was an experimental permission for negotiable order of withdrawal accounts (NOWs) in the New England States. This allowed interest (at regulated rates) to be paid on transaction accounts. Money market certificates (MMCs) were introduced in June 1978. Automatic transfer accounts (ATS) followed in November 1978. The MMC allowed Treasury-bill linked rates to be paid on certificates of 6 months maturity. These certificates proved very popular and had the beneficial result of reducing depository institution exposure to disintermediation. However, they encouraged depositors to place their medium denomination ($10,000) deposits in relatively short-term accounts. This did nothing to help the S&Ls1 duration and interest-rate-imbalance problem. Consequently, permission was given in 1979 for a small savers* certificate (SSC) of 4 year, and later of 2^ year, maturity. This concession constitutes the fifth step toward deregulating deposit rates. In January 1981, NOW accounts became available nationwide in implementa tion of the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control (DIDMC) Act of 1980. Progress toward permitting market interest-related accounts was then stalled until the spring and summer of 1982, when two large denomination, short maturity (7-31 and 91 day) accounts were authorized and rate ceilings were removed on the longest-term accounts, according to the schedule for ceiling-removal established by the Depository Institutions Deregulation 7 Committee (DIDC) — the committee, composed of the heads of the federal government financial agencies, was established by the DIDMCA to oversee the orderly phase-out of interest rate ceilings by 1986. Nevertheless, the disintermediation problem remained, although its nature was changed. From the late 1960s to the mid-1970s disintermediation could be sudden and sharp. After the introduction of the MMC the disintermediation problem became one of slow attrition and forfeiture of growth. The money market mutual fund (MMMF) industry began in 1972, but it was dormant until 1978. It then began to grow rapidly, as interest rates rose, because it offered a small denomination, no minimum maturity, market-interest-rate vehicle to consumers. By the fall of 1982, MMMFs held $230 billion of the nation’s funds. Increased Asset Powers Successive tinkerings with the unpopular (among small savers and academics) Regulation Q had raised depository institutions’ interest costs but had eliminated neither disintermediation nor the duration imbalance of thrifts’ balance sheets. Profitability was thus jeopardized. Attention was then turned, at the beginning of the 1980s, to encouraging interestresponsiveness for assets as well as liabilities. While some states, such as California, already permitted their state-chartered institutions to offer variable residential rate mortgage contracts, the regulatory agencies did not permit them for federally chartered thrifts and banks until 1980. Nevertheless, the S&L industry’s position continued to deteriorate; Congressional action would be needed to alleviate it. 8 Congressional Response to The Financial Crisis As the decade of the 1970s closed, it was increasingly evident that the patch-work of ad hoc regulatory concessions and adjustments to Regulation Q was not succeeding. Furthermore, there were other important deterrents to depository institution profitability that lay beyond the regulators’ purview. The earnings and net worth position of the thrifts, in particular, deteriorated in the high interest rate, accelerating-inflation, depreciating-dollar, gold, silver and commodity price-explosion environment of the winter of 1979-80. The crisis atmosphere prompted the two houses of Congress to reconcile their differences over legislation proposed during 1979 and to enact the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control (DIDMCA) Act of I960.4 The DIDMCA aimed to strengthen deposit institutions’ positions by permitting greater flexibility on both the asset and liability sides of their balance sheets. It was clear at the time of passage, however, that the act was not a panacea. In particular, it would take several years for the new asset powers to reduce the average duration of the asset portfolio, to raise earnings and make them more responsive to rising market rates. The most immediate solution to the major S&L problem (the backlog of old, fixed, low rate mortgages) would be a sustained fall in market interest rates. Such a fall occurred in the quarter following the passage of DIDMCA, but it was short-lived and in any case was not caused by the Act. During the summer of 1980 rates began to rise rapidly and did not fall again significantly until the late summer of 1982. In the meantime, the position of the S&L industry had deteriorated so much that it was seen as the Achilles heel of the 9 financial system. The actual and potential failure rate of individual institutions was almost reminiscent of the 1930s. Legislation typically derives from the Congress* perception of a crisis. Such is a description of the process leading to the Garn-St Germain Act. Previously, different bills had been introduced into the Congress but had been stalled by the interplay between political parties and lobbying forces. As the perceived severity of the thrifts* crisis increased, political differences were suppressed, compromises were reached and action was taken.^ As discussed below in this paper, the resulting Garn-St Germain Act is primarily a rescue operation for the S&Ls and mutual savings banks. Titles I and II of the act contain emergency powers that give the regulators greater flexibility in dealing with crisis situations.^ optimistically been omitted from the 1980 act. These powers had But the new act also contains matters of import to commercial banks and bank holding companies and longer-term powers for S&Ls. As these institutions are the principal depository institution competitors in the Midwestern region of the United States, the discussion that follows will focus on these three groups. Another objective of the act is to move the financial system further along the path to deregulation, competitive efficiency, and equity for the small saver initiated under DIDMCA. The progress toward the removal of interest-rate ceilings had become stalled within the Depository Institution Deregulation Committee. ceiling-removal. The 1982 act urges the committee toward It also addresses questions of competition among the differing depository institutions and exhorts a **level playing field** between depository institutions in general and other participants in the financial services industry. It promotes these objectives by giving thrifts 10 (particularly S&Ls) increased asset powers, and by permitting all depository institutions to offer deposit accounts designed to be competitive with money market mutual fund accounts. implications. follow. These accounts have important monetary policy These issues are discussed further in the sections which 11 THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE 1982 ACT The 1982 Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act is complex, containing eight titles dealing in great detail with different areas of financial reform. Many of the minutiae will be passed over in the following discussion in order to emphasize those aspects that are considered most important. The discussion is divided into three sections: (A) powers permanently widening the sources of depository institution funds, including progress toward the removal of interest-rate ceilings, (B) provisions permanently expanding the uses of funds and other powers for financial institutions, and (C) enactments that temporarily grant emergency powers for regulators to deal with depository institution crises. A. The Sources of Funds A number of features of the act increase the ability of depository institutions to attract funds. 1. All federal insured depository institutions are given the opportunity to offer a new deposit account that is "directly equivalent to and competitive with money market mutual funds” (Title III, Part B, Section 324). In implementing this provision, the DIDC decided that the account, called the money market deposit account (MMDA) , to become available on December 14, 1982, should be federally insured, not subject to transaction account reserve requirements (despite permission for up to six preauthorized, telephone or automatic transfers of which no more than three may be by check), and have a minimum initial and maintained deposit of at least $2,300. The DIDC authorized (from January 5, 1983) a Super-NOW account to pay market interest rates on an unlimited transaction account available to all (except corporations) and to carry a transaction account reserve requirement (now 12 percent). The NOW account rate would be paid on either deposit falling below the required maintenance balance. 2. Federal, State and local governments are given permission to hold negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts (Title VII, Section 706). 12 3. Federally-chartered savings and loans associations are permitted to offer demand deposits to "persons or organizations that have a business, corporate, commercial, or agricultural loan relationship with the association" or to "a commercial, corporate, business or agricultural entity for the sole purpose of effectuating payments from a nonbusiness customer" (Title III, Part A, Section 312). The ability of depository institutions to raise funds is affected by the imposition of interest-rate ceilings. The 1982 act makes three provisions that encourage progress toward the removal of such ceilings. for the money market deposit account is one such step. authorization for the Super-NOW account. Authorization The second is the A third provision is the removal (on or before January 1, 1984) of any differential between the ceilings permitted to federal insured banks and thrifts (Title III, Section 326). B. Uses of Funds and Other Powers Both thrift and banking institutions benefit to some degree from the act’s provisions for expanded powers. However, federal savings and loan associations and savings banks gain the greatest enhancement in their powers. 1. Federal (i.e. federally-chartered) savings and loan associations and savings banks are authorized to i) offer overdraft loans in connection with their transaction or savings accounts; ii) invest in the accounts of federally insured institutions; iii) invest up to 100% of their assets in state and local government obligations, except that no more than 10% of capital may be placed in other than the general obligations of any one issuer); iv) offer real estate loans without loan to value restrictions; v) make non-residential real property loans to 40% of assets; vi) make secured or unsecured loans for "commercial, corporate, business, oy agricultural purposes," either directly or through participations; vii) make consumer (including inventory and floor planning) loans and other loans reasonably incident to personal, family and household purposes to 30% of assets; ix) invest up to 10% of assets in tangible personal property "for rental or sale;" x) offer loans to 5% of assets for educational purposes; xi) invest up to 1% of assets in federally guaranteed foreign assistance; and xii) place up to 1% of assets in small business investment companies (Title III, Part B, Sections 321, 322, 323, 324, 328, 329, and 330). 2. State laws and court decisions that prohibit the execution of due-on-sale provisions of mortgage contracts are pre-empted. However, 13 the pre-emption is delayed until October 1985 for "window-period" loans° (Title III, Section 341). 3. Any institution which is, or is eligible to become, a Federal Home Loan Bank member is authorized to convert its charter to a federal S&L savings bank or mutual savings bank. Institutions can change between mutual and stock form. Federal S&Ls and savings banks can convert to state charter where state law permits. The act also permits the de novo chartering of a federal S&L or Savings Bank (Title III, 313). 4. State banks and thrifts are empowered to offer the alternative mortgage instruments permitted to their federal counterparts (Title VIII, Sections 802-4). 5. The safety and soundness loans limits imposed on national banks are relaxed. The percentage of capital and surplus loanable to a single borrower is raised from the existing 10% to 15% plus another 10% for loans "fully secured by readily marketable collateral." Such limits are now specifically applied to loans made to foreign governments and their agencies (Title IV, Section 401). 6 . The act simplifies the real estate lending restrictions imposed on national banks (Title IV, Section 402) and relaxes the restrictions on insider loans (Title 4, Sections 429 and 430). Title V, Sections 507— 12 achieve the same objectives for credit unions. 7. The act authorizes the Comptroller of the Currency to charter bankers’ banks to be owned exclusively by depository institutions for the provision of services to their owners, directors and employees (Title IV, Section 404). 8 . The powers of bank service corporations are expanded into conformity with the powers of their owner depository institutions, except that service corporations may not take deposits (Title VII, Section 709). 9. The act amends the definition of a bank given in the Bank Holding Company Act to exempt institutions insured by the FSLIC or chartered by the FHLBBB. In the absence of such exemption the provision of demand deposits together with the offering of commercial loans would have rendered thrifts exposed to the restrictions of the Bank Holding Company Act. This would have limited out-of-state expansions, acquisitions and mergers. The act’s legislative history indicates that Congress intends the S&L industry to retain its primary role in the provision of credit for housing despite the increase in their other lending opportunities. Consequently, after the act’s passage the FHLBB withdrew its earlier proposed regulation that substantially increased the activities permitted to S&L holding companies 14 and service corporations into real estate brokerage, insurance underwriting, securities activities including the operation of mutual funds. The ability of federal institutions to engage in commercial and other activities is intended to give them access to short-maturity and variable rate loan instruments. consumer loans. The DIDMCA of 1980 had given thrifts powers to make These powers have not been widely used, however, partly due to the existence of usury limits on consumer loans in some states. Neither the 1980 nor the present act preempts these ceilings. At the same time the act reduces some of the powers of banks, their affiliates and holding companies. For example, Title IV, Section 410 subjects transactions between banks and their affiliates to stricter regulation, while easing restrictions on transactions among sister banks of the same holding company. Further, Title VI limits the insurance activities of bank holding companies. C. Emergency Powers Titles I and II of the act enhance for three years the powers of the FDIC and FSLIC to aid troubled banks and thrifts in emergency situations. 9 Until "Sunset" in October 1985, the agencies can more readily aid institutions which are: . closed, insolvent or in default; . in danger of closing, defaulting or becoming insolvent; or where . "severe financial conditions exist which threaten the stability of a significant number of insured institutions or of institutions possessing significant resources" and where "such action is taken in order to lessen the risk to the corporation..."; or in order to . facilitate the merger or acquisition of a troubled institution. Previously the FDIC could provide direct assistance only to an insured institution that was essential to the community. given only to reduce any risk or loss to the FDIC. Merger assistance could be Similarly, the FSLIC 15 previously could take action only when an institution was in, or in danger of, default. The actions which the insurance agency can take are sixfold. 1. They can issue guarantees. 2. They may purchase an insured institution’s assets or securities (excluding common and voting stock, to preclude nationalization); 3. They may assume a troubled institution's liabilities; make loans to deposits in, or contributions to an insured institution or to a company that has acquired, or will acquire a troubled insured institution (Title I, Part A, Section III, and Part B, Section 122). 4. They may authorize or require the conversion of a state-chartered savings bank insured by the FDIC into a federal savings bank or of a mutual savings and loan association or a mutual savings banks insured by the FSLIC into a federal stock association or savings bank (Title I, Part A, Section 112, and Part B, Section 121). 5. The FDIC can arrange a merger with, or acquisition of, a closed (or for an mutual savings bank, an endangered) large insured bank located in one state by an insured bank chartered in the same state but established by an out-of-state bank or holding company. The FSLIC has even wider powers with respect to institutions it insures. 6 . Title II of the act authorizes aid to federally insured savings and loan associations, savings banks, and commercial banks involved in residential real estate lending, through the purchase of net-worth certificates. State-insured institutions may also receive such assistance if the state agrees to indemnify the federal insurance fund. The net worth certificates are deemed to be "net worth" for statutory and regulatory purposes.7 7. Section VII of the act, mandates a staff study to consider the adequacy of and improvements in the present provisions regarding FDIC and FSLIC insurance of depository institutions. When arranging extraordinary acquisitions and mergers, the FDIC (and similarily for the FSLIC with regard to the institutions it insures) may solicit offers from qualified institutions. Where the lowest bid is not made by a like, in-state institution, institutions making adjacent bids, may be allowed to bid again. Then the insurance agency must attempt to minimize the risk of its aid subject to the following priorities: i) ii) iii) iv) v) like, in-state institutions, like, out-of-state institutions, different in-state institutions, different, out-of-state institutions, among out-of-state mergers, priority is to be given to adjacent-state institutions. 16 vi) the FSLIC (but not the FDIC) is required to give preference to minority bidders in the case of a failed, minority-owned institution. Provision is made for consultation with state regulators (Title I, Part A, Section 116, and Part B, Section 123). Similar powers are given to the NCUA with regard to troubled credit unions (Title I, Part C, Section 141). Prior laws permitted the FDIC to directly assist banks by making loans, purchasing assets or making deposits only when the bank was "essential to its community", and the FSLIC to directly assist thrifts only by making contributions or loans to or by purchasing assets from a defaulting thrift. Now, both corporations have substantially similar and expanded powers. Prior merger powers limited the FDIC to assist mergers only of an FDIC insured bank with another FDIC insured institution and only in order to avoid loss to itself. Now the act allows the FDIC to assist any federally insured depository institution to acquire a large failed commercial bank and the FDIC or FSLIC to assist a holding company, an insured institution or any other acceptable company to acquire a large (over $500 million in assets) troubled FDIC-insured savings bank, or any S&L. The act extends the powers the FSLIC had over federally chartered associations to state chartered thrifts. Powers are granted to convert state-chartered institutions into federal institutions. Further, the FHLBB can authorize the conversion of mutual associations or savings banks to federal stock form in emergencies. The act explicitly permits the emergency acquisitions such as that of Fidelity Federal Savings and Loan Association of Oakland by Citicorp which had met strong opposition previously. For interstate and interindustry mergers, the FDIC has these powers with respect to large (over $500 million in assets) troubled banks, while the FHLBB can aid any troubled institution. In order to prevent these provisions from readily leading to interstate banking, limits are placed on branching activities. 17 The net worth certificates permitted by the act are similar in concept to the income capital certificates used by the FSLIC prior to the 1982 act. They are a hybrid debt and equity instrument carrying fixed notional interest and having, in the case of failure by the issuing institution, priority over stockholders but not over creditors. The program can assist not only thrifts but also community banks that have at least 20 percent of their loans in residential mortgages or mortgage backed securities. Summary The act has several important implications. In the analysis that follows attention will be given to the act’s potential contribution toward solving the problems of savings and loan associations, commercial banks, bank holding companies. It will examine: the due-on-sale problem, the deposit insurance issue and the act’s implications for monetary policy. In so doing, it will also consider the likely effects on competition between commercial banks and S&Ls and on the ability of depository institutions in general to compete with other financial intermediaries. Finally, it will conclude with a discussion of what remains to be done to promote the prosperity and usefulness of U.S. depository institutions. 18 THE IMPACT ON COMMERCIAL BANKS In the decades since the second World War, commercial banks have several times re-evaluated their policies and strategies for generating and deploying loanable funds in the light of the problems facing the industry. In the first half of the century the real bills doctrine influenced bank strategies so that bank policies traditionally concentrated on ways to match specific sources of funds to selected uses. In the 1950s these policies were replaced by efforts to actively manage assets while taking for granted the supply of funds — a feasible approach as interest rate ceilings were not then binding. During the 1960s policies evolved further; toward actively managing the sources of funds — liability management — an approach necessitated when market rates rose above the ceilings. The Industry Since 1950 From the 1950s to the present day, the composition of bank assets and liabilities changed dramatically. For example, as Table 1 indicates, nonearning assets (such as cash, member bank reserves and balances due from banks) grew only sluggishly in dollar value so that their share in bank asset portfolios decreased from 23.9 percent in 1950 to 10.5 percent in 1981. The share of assets held in the form of Treasury securities also fell, while other earning assets (particularly loans) increased their percentage share. During this period the composition of liabilities also changed. The data in Table 1 show that reliance on demand deposits decreased while the share of time and savings deposits, particularly those paying market-related interest rates, increased. 19 Table 1 Percentage Distribution of Assets and Liabilities of 1 Commercial Banks' Assets Cash, reserves, and due from banks Treasury securities Other securities Loans Other assets Total assets 1950 1964 1981 23.9 36.7 7.3 30.9 1.2 100.0 17.4 18.2 11.2 50.6 2.6 100.0 10.5 6.6 14.0 56.0 12.9 100.0 73.8 24.9 56.3 40.0 0.8 2.9 100.0 23.9 57.6 12.5 6.0 100.0 Liabilities Demand deposits Time and Savings Deposits Borrowings Other liabilities Total liabilities 0.0 1.2 100.0 Includes all commercial banks in the United States except branches of foreign banks; included are members and nonmembers, stock savings banks, and nondeposit trust companies. 2 Includes federal funds purchased and securities sold under agreement to repurchase, and other liabilities for borrowed money. SOURCES: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Banking and Monetary Statistics 1941-1970 (Washington: U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1976), pp. 27-30; and Federal Reserve Bulletin 68 (April 1982), p. A17. 20 Banking strategies were successful overall during the period 1960-81. As the data in Table 2 show, the return on total assets was maintained over the period, while the return on capital was increased. Further, as Flannery [1981] has shown, commercial banks were able to protect their portfolios from interest-rate risk. as rapidly as costs. In periods of rising rates, revenues have risen at least In this situation, accounting profits provide a fair representation of the economic position of the industry. Apparently, in contrast to the situation in the S&L industry, there was no immediate crisis during 1982 in the banking industry which legislation needed to address. This situation should not be interpreted to mean that the industry was without problems, rather that any problems had not reached crisis proportions. The industry-wide profitability to date is due to the commercial banks1 success in overcoming the structural problems that caused the thrift crisis. For one thing, the threat of disintermediation had been avoided through increasing reliance on purchased funds paying market interest rates. This has prevented any sudden, rapid withdrawal of funds and has permitted growth in liabilities and assets over the years. Liabilities paying unregulated interest rates increased from 1 percent in 1965, to 37 percent at the end of 1979 and 50 percent at the close of 1981.^ Second, average earnings were maintained at a viable rate by changing asset composition so as to reduce the share of nonearning assets. Third, emphasis on short maturity and variable rate assets reduced exposure to interest rate risk [Flannery, 1981]. Although most commercial banks perform similar functions, they have not been equally affected by the problems facing the industry. The growth of money market mutual funds has proved more of a disadvantage to small commercial banks than to large banks. The latter, possessing established credit ratings, are able to issue large CDs to the MMMFs, while the former 21 Table 2 Profitability of Insured Commercial Banks Net Income as Percent of Total Assets Year .78 .72 .68 .69 .66 .67 .67 .70 .68 .82 .84 .82 .77 .79 .78 .76 .66 .66 .71 .76 .76 .73 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 U.S. Federal U.S. Federal 1. Based on 2. Includes 1 Total Capital 1, 2 9.69 9.02 8.44 8.50 8.32 8.41 8.47 9.24 9.35 10.95 11.36 11.16 10.74 11.38 11.20 10.56 10.14 10.44 11.53 12.44 12.30 11.86 Deposit Insurance Corporation, Annual Report (Washington: Deposit Insurance Corporation), various issues. year-end figures. equity capital, subordinated notes and debentures. 22 cannot do so directly. Further, smaller banks, serving the needs of their local communities, have loan characteristics (fixed rate and longer maturity) that expose them to interest rate risk. Nevertheless, as the data in Table 3 show, small banks in general have been able to maintain their profitability as well or better than the large banks.^ Further, as Eisenbeis and Kwast [1982] have shown, even banks that specialize in real estate lending remained profitable during the period 1970 through 1979. Banks holding 65 percent or more of their assets as real estate loans for at least 7 of these years achieved profitability by containing their operating expenses, particularly interest costs. Consequently, in 1982 commercial banks did not need legislation that would raise their average rate of return or reduce their exposure to interest rate risk. The major problem that now faces the banking industry is the age-old one - credit risk. Banks currently are exposed to actual and potential loan losses from foreign governments and both foreign and domestic corporations that are experiencing difficulty in making interest and scheduled capital payments. These problems are considered to be part of the normal business of banking and not in need of Congressional action - in the absence of a widespread financial crisis. Legislative Content Commercial banks have four current concerns. The first is the increased level and volatility of nominal and real interest rates during recent years, which affect both bank costs and returns. The second concerns the effects of the world-wide recession on actual and potential default rates on both domestic and international loans. A third is the likely impact of the expanded powers given to S&Ls under the DIDMCA and the Garn-St Germain Act. A 23 fourth concern is for the growing encroachment of nondepository institutions into what has traditionally been bank-reserved territory. The act makes contributions toward resolving some but not all, of the current concerns. For example, banks have been judged successful and, therefore, not in need of assistance in dealing with the level and volatility of interest rates. With regard to the worldwide recession and heavy exposure to default risk, action is being taken by the international banking agencies and central governments. The act contributes little here. Greater flexibility for the FDIC in emergency situations might be utilized if a crisis were to develop. Economists and others involved in the re-examination of deposit insurance will no doubt discuss this risk exposure when reconstituting the deposit insurance system to meet the new environment. Nevertheless, the Garn-St Germain Act has several important implications for commercial banks. First and foremost, the new MMD and Super-NOW accounts provide an opportunity for depository institutions in general to compete with money market mutual funds (MMMFs) for the supply of intermediary funds. Management’s positioning with regard to the characteristics of these accounts will determine whether a bank will be able to compete successfully with thrifts to insure an adequate share of the funds that flow to depository institutions in response to the new instruments. Second, the act’s requirement for the removal by the end of 1983 of any differential in the Regulation Q rates offered by banks and thrifts, should assist those banks that wish to compete with thrifts for their sources of funds. A third advantage given to commercial banks by the act is the ability to organize bankers’ banks. Increased powers for bank service corporations can also be utilized successfully by commercial banks. The provision, for example, could enable commercial banks to indirectly invest in the export 24 trading companies (that were authorized in concurrent legislation, the Export Trading Company Act of October 1982) even without the need to establish a holding company for this purpose. Fourth, banks are given greater flexibility in lending. For example, the safety and soundness limits on bank lending to individual borrowers are relaxed. The previous 10 percent of capital limit is raised to 15 percent plus another 10 percent for assets secured by readily marketable collateral. This should assist small agricultural banks, particularly those that wish to concentrate rather than diversify their portfolios. Previously, these banks have needed to organize loan participations or sales to correspondents. Henceforth they will have less need for these potentially costly resorts. However, specialization involves risk. In times of severe recession and falling commodity prices - the economic situation existing at the time of the act’s passage - further concentration of their portfolios could jeopardize the safety of agricultural banks and others. Former restrictions on real estate lending by national banks are removed and the Comptroller of the Currency is empowered to issue regulations concerning these loans. Fifth and finally, the clarification of the due-on-sale situation, which is discussed below in greater detail, may help those commercial, banks that are heavily invested in residential real estate to dispose of their backlog of low fixed-rate mortgage assets. One of the things which is not clear at this stage of writing is the likely impact on commercial banks of the act’s emergency powers, contained in Titles I and II. Discussion in the financial press has concentrated on the potential uses of these powers for troubled S&Ls and mutual savings banks. Nevertheless, threatened commercial banks are eligible for capital assistance under Title I. The regulatory view, however, is that few eligible commercial 25 Table 3 Return on Equity Capital of Insured Commercial Banks Large banks^ Year Small banks 1977 10.99 11.71 1978 12.28 12.36 1979 13.18 13.26 1980 12.91 13.31 1981 12.43 12.73 SOURCE: U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Bank Operating Statistics (Washington: U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), various issues. NOTES: 1. 2. Banks with $100 million or more in total assets. Banks with less than $100 million in total assets. 26 banks are likely to receive such aid, as the alternate solution of merger or acquisition is likely to prove less costly to the FDIC. 12 It is considered unlikely that more than a handful of troubled commercial banks would prove eligible for net worth guarantee assistance under Title II of the act, for assistance is limited to institutions having at least 20 percent of their loans invested in residential real estate. And, as Eisenbeis and Kwast (1982) have shown, real estate banks in general have remained soundly profitable. In summary, the relaxation of liability side restrictions is likely to be important for banks. However, with regard to increased asset powers, banks were not successful in achieving what they had sought. They were not, for example, explicitly given the opportunity to engage in full brokerage activities nor to underwrite municipal revenue bonds, corporate bonds or equities. Outlook for the Industry As a result of the new MMDA and Super-NOW account, the average funding cost will probably rise. This will put pressure on bank profit margins, particularly those of retail banks. Thus the interest rate spread between attracting and deploying funds may narrow as the act is implemented. The ability of the commercial banking industry to handle the effects of deregulation on this interest rate spread will depend heavily on individual banks* management skills. The new accounts may lessen the funding spread - the difference between the marginal and average costs of bank funds. In any industry that equates marginal costs to marginal revenues a level of average costs that is low in relation to average revenues promotes profitability. Some funding spread may remain, however, as a convenience premium reflecting retail depositors1 27 willingness to forego some interest rate yield in order to gain FDIC insurance and the advantages of bank’s full-service financial centers. One way for banks to maintain loan rates high enough to ensure profitability would be to include more middle-size firms in their future lending strategies. However, medium-size firms are exactly the ones whose business S&Ls, with their knowledge of local market conditions, might seek successfully as they take advantage of the new powers given in the present act and the DIDMC Act of 1980. 28 THE IMPLICATIONS FOR BANK HOLDING COMPANIES Passage of the Garn-St Germain Act will affect, to a limited extent, the future activities of the nation’s bank holding companies (BHCs). The four most significant developments are the (1) interstate and cross-industry acquisition provisions; (2) limitations on insurance activities; (3) removal of some constraints on transactions among sister subsidiary banks of the same holding company; and (4) expanded powers of the bank service corporations. In general, the legislative changes resulting from the Garn-St Germain Act should give some bank holding companies a marginally greater ability to expand the geographic and product scope of their activities in the coming years. Interstate and Across-Industry Acquisitions by Bank Holding Companies. The Garn-St Germain Act makes some progress toward addressing the long standing issues surrounding the interstate and cross-industry acquisition of financial institutions (particularly of savings and loan associations) by bank holding companies. The need for such progress has been clearly identified. In 1981, a report of the Department of the Treasury to the President, entitled Geographic Restrictions on Commercial Banking in the United States, noted that legal prohibitions against interstate acquisitions of commercial banks by bank holding companies were becoming "increasingly ineffective, inequitable, inefficient, and anachronistic...11 The study concluded that interstate expansion by bank holding companies and their acquisition of commercial banks were the least disruptive methods, for achieving the benefits of interstate bank expansion in the short-run. In September of 1981, a study by the staff of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, entitled Bank Holding Company Acquisitions of Thrift Institutions, examined the issue of bank 29 holding company acquisitions of nonbank financial institutions. The study concluded that, "few, if any, important public or private economic or supervisory factors suggest that BHCs should be precluded from acquiring thrifts." The study found that existing antitrust laws and regulatory structures were adequate to deal with any problems that might arise from such acquisitions. Title I, Section 116, of the Garn-St Germain Act gives the FDIC the authority to seek interstate or cross-industry mergers for insured commercial banks or mutual savings banks that are closed or, in the case of mutual savings banks, in danger of being closed. Such acquisitions are limited to institutions that have total assets in excess of $500 million, at the time of the most recent report of examination. In addition to other requirements, if the lowest acceptable bid is not from the same type of institution within the state where the financially troubled institution is located, the FDIC is required to solicit new bids from those institutions that had bids within the lesser of 15 percent or $15 million of the the lowest bid. A set of priorities are established to guide the FDIC in choosing among the bidders. These priorities, as described in a previous section, are as follows: . the same type of institution from the same state . the same type of institution from a different state . a different type of institution from the same state . a different type of institution from a different state These restrictions impose such severe limitations on the ability of BHCs to acquire commercial banks on an interstate basis that they seem likely to insure that only a few such acquisitions take place. First, the limitation that the acquired institution have over $500 million in assets will reduce 30 greatly the number of applicant bank holding companies, for few are large enough to absorb such a large bank. Second, the placing of bank holding companies, as institutions of a different type, last or next to last in the priority ranking, further limits BHCsf opportunities to acquire commercial banks on an interstate basis. The FDIC is also required to give priority to offers coming from states adjacent to the troubled bank. Nevertheless, the act has already been utilized in dealing with the fourth largest failure by a commercial bank. The United American Bank of Knoxville, Tennessee failed on February 14, 1983. And the act’s emergency provisions did permit the bank to be acquired by a bank holding company— First-Tennessee National Corp. the bidding process. The act’s priority provisions were utilized in As the highest bids in the first round of bidding came from an institution headquartered out-of-state, and as First Tennessee’s bid lay within the 15 percent or $15 million ball park, the holding company was permitted to bid again, successfully. The Garn-St Germain Act should make the acquisition of certain S&Ls easier; however, unanswered questions remain. For some time, BHCs have been able to engage in activities beyond commercial banking. 13 For example, the Congress, through Section 4 of the Bank Holding Company Act (BHCA), gave the Federal Reserve Board authority to permit BHCs to engage in certain nonbank activities. Section 4(c)(8) of the BHCA sets forth the tests that the Board is to follow in assessing the permissibility of nonbank activities. First, the Board must determine whether the activity is ’’closely related to banking,” that is, whether as a general matter the activity is permissible for bank holding companies. Second, the Board must determine whether the performance of the proposed activity by a BHC is ”a proper incident to” banking, that is, 31 whether it may reasonably be expected to produce public benefits that outweigh any possible adverse effects. As far back as 1974, the Board determined that the operation of savings and loan associations was Section 4 of the BHCA. 14 closely related to banking in the context of While the Board has traditionally held that S&L activities are closely related to banking, it has not determined such activities to be a proper incident of banking. Part of the argument used has been founded on the belief that Congress intended savings and loan associations to be maintained as specialized institutions, to act as lenders to the housing industry. While the Board had, before the act, the authority to approve bank holding company acquisitions of S&Ls, it was reluctant, except in a few limited situations considered on a case by case basis, to approve such acquisitions. It preferred to wait until Congress explicitly resolved the issue. In a limited sense, Congress has now addressed part of the issue relating to cross-industry acquisitions. Title I of the Garn-St Germain Act, for the first time, explicitly permits the cross-industry and interstate acquisitions of S&Ls by BHCs. Section 123 of the Garn-St Germain Act provides for the emergency acquisition of an open or closed insured thrift institution that is eligible for FSLIC assistance. This provision will permit certain interstate acquisition of S&Ls experiencing "severe financial conditions1* by a BHC. While bank holding companies now have explicit authority to acquire S&Ls encountering severe financial problems on both an intra and interstate basis, there is another requirement that is likely to reduce the frequency of such occurrences. Bidders located outside the state are to be given priorities similar to those applicable in the case of large bank failures. Again, as in the case of interstate bank acquisitions, BHCs are at the bottom of the 32 priority list. Compared to potential bank acquisitions, however, there is a greater likelihood that a bank holding company will acquire an S&L because there is no limitation on asset size and because the acquired institution need not be closed to be acquired. Thus, the Congress has addressed, in the Garn-St Germain Act, the short-run issue of interstate and cross-industry acquisitions of financially troubled thrift institutions and large failed banks. % However, it did not address the long-run issue relating to the acquisition of sound bank or thrift institutions. The Insurance Activities of Bank Holding Companies Title VI of the Garn-St Germain Act amends section 4(c)(8) of the BHCA by prohibiting bank holding companies from providing insurance as an underwriter, agent or broker. activities. It was Congress’s intent to restrict BHC insurance However, the initial legislation, through an error in drafting, actually expanded small (under $50 million in assets) bank holding companies’ ability to provide insurance services. An amendment was adopted to make technical corrections to the act and, as a result, small bank holding companies soon lost this expanded insurance authority. This unintended result had initially arisen from one of seven exceptions to the prohibition of insurance activities. This exception was quickly removed, but others remain. Exception A permits BHCs to act as a principal, agent, or broker in the issuance of insurance that is limited to assuring the repayment of any outstanding credit balance due to a BHC or its subsidiary, in the event of the death, disability, or involuntary unemployment of the debtor. Exception A could, however, be interpreted broadly to allow BHCs to underwrite credit-life and credit-accident and health insurance. Whether a broad or narrow 33 interpretation is given to this subsection of the act depends on the meaning construed for the word "principal". It may take court action to resolve this issue. Exception B permits BHCs to provide (as principal, agent, or broker) insurance that is limited to assuring repayment of an outstanding credit balance in the event of loss or damage to any property used as collateral for the loan. A similar exception applies to the extension of credit by a finance company subsidiary of the BHC. The losses that can be insured under Exception B are, during 1982, limited to $10,000 (or $25,000 in the case of extensions of credit to finance the purchase of a residential manufactured home). After 1982, the dollar amounts insured are to be adjusted by the percentage increase in the consumer price index. It was noteworthy that applications have already been filed and contested under this exception. American Fletcher Corporation, of Indianapolis, Indiana filed an application to engage in the sale of property and casualty insurance on property taken as collateral for loans made by its finance company subsidiary, Fletcher Financial Services, Inc. On December 8 , 1982 the Independent Insurance Agents of America Inc. and the Independent Insurance Agents of Alabama filed a protest against this application. They contend that Title VI of the Garn-St Germain Act generally prohibits BHCs from acting as agents in the sale of property and casualty insurance. As yet, the record in the case has not been fully developed and it represents one of the areas where the issues are unresolved. Exception C allows BHCs to continue to engage in insurance agency activities in: (1) communities having a population of less than 5,000 persons as determined by the last census; or (2) a community where the BHC, after giving notice and an opportunity for a hearing, demonstrates that inadequate 34 insurance agency facilities are available. These exemptions should have no immediate impact upon the insurance activities of BHCs, since these activities were previously available to them. Exception D is a grandfather provision that permits BHCs to continue any insurance agency activity which was engaged in by the BHC or its subsidiaries or which the Board had approved, before May 1, 1982. Under certain circumstances, previously approved insurance agency activities can be extended to new locations. Further, new kinds of insurance coverages can be sold as long as the expanded coverage will insure against the same kinds of risks as those previously covered. Exception E allows BHCs to engage in insurance activities involving the "supervision” on behalf of insurance underwriters the activities of retail insurance agents. The retail insurance agent’s activities must be limited to the sale of: (1) fidelity (e.g. bonding) insurance and property and casualty insurance on real and personal property that is used in the operations of the BHC or its subsidiaries; and (2) group insurance that protects the employees of the BHC or its subsidiary. If broadly interpreted, this exception could allow nonbank insurers to sell insurance on bank premises under bank "supervision". However, as this exemption was written to cover a unique situation in the State of Texas, it is not likely to be thus broadly interpreted. Nevertheless, Laura Gross [1983] reports that Banc One Corp of Ohio will soon beginning leasing bank space to agents of Nationwide Insurance Co. Nationwide plans to offer a full range of insurance services and to sell mutual funds and annuities. The letter of the BHC law will be met by maintaining separate entrances for the agency and the bank, but its spirit will be tested by the mutual proximity and visability. The entrance to the 35 bank and the insurance agency will be from the same lobby and only a glass wall will separate the institutions. Due to a drafting error now removed, exception F originally permitted any insurance agency activity by bank holding companies with total assets of $50 million or less. 15 Exemption G grandfathers insurance activities by BHCs that received Board approval prior to January 1, 1971. Obviously small bank holding companies would have benefitted from Exemption F, as drafted. The Garn-St Germain Act provides little in the way of assistance to the nation’s smaller banks and BHCs, but, by giving smaller institutions the capability of selling insurance, they would have acquired a significant competitive advantage in their struggle with thrifts and other larger financial institutions. No doubt, the provision would have prompted protests and litigation on the part of the insurance industry. Exception F, as originally drafted, could have led to a major expansion in the number of small BHCs formed nationwide and, in particular, those within the Seventh Federal Reserve District. About 72 percent (10,363) of the nation’s 14,415 insured commercial banks had assets of less than $50 million, as of December 31, 1981.^ For the Seventh District states, small banks constitute about 73 percent of the 3,341 insured commercial banks in the five state area (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin). However, in two states, Iowa and Wisconsin, small banks represent 84 percent and 82 percent, respectively, of all insured commercial banks. Before the exception was amended, bank holding company interest in the expanded insurance activities had begun to materialize. Small banks and BHCs inquired at the Seventh District Federal Reserve Bank about the possibility of acting as agents for the sale of a broad array of insurance. Furthermore, applications have been filed, although none have yet been accepted, by three 36 Seventh District BHCs. Given this revealed interest, it is likely that attempts will be made in the future to expand the scope of bank holding company insurance activities to sell all kinds of insurance pursuant to the act. Section 23A - Impact on Holding Companies Title IV, Section 410 of Garn-St Germain Act amends section 23A of the Federal Reserve Act. Prior to being amended, Section 23A limited financial transactions between a bank and its affiliated companies in order to prevent the misuse of bank funds.^ The Garn-St Germain Act liberalizes the types of transactions that may take place between banks affiliated with the same parent holding company. 18 The amended section 23A will allow for virtually unlimited financial transactions to take place between subsidiary banks of the same parent holding company. However, one constraint is placed on interbank financial transactions between affiliates of the same BHC. Banks are prohibited from engaging in transactions that involve low-quality assets. This constraint was adopted to prevent such transactions where the intent and effect would be to circumvent the bank examination process. Furthermore, it reduces the possibility that well-intentioned bank rescue operations by the parent BHC could go astray and result in multiple bank failures. The liberalization should improve the flow of funds that can take place among affiliated banks in the same holding company network. Thus, it will make it easier for a BHC to allocate funds to their highest yielding and best use and to aid smaller subsidiary banks. Bank Service Corporations Title VII, section 709 of the Garn-St Germain Act enables one or more banks to form a bank service corporation that will provide certain financial 37 services to all types of depository institutions and the public. Since 1962, banks have had the ability to form service corporations; however, their activities have been limited to providing bank services to commercial banks. Under the Garn-St Germain Act, bank service corporations may undertake three different types of activities. They may: (1) provide "depository institution services"; (2) offer other nondepository services that can be provided by banks, and (3) engage in the activities that the Board of Governors has found to be "closely related" to banking. "Depository institution services" include activities such as bookkeeping, statement preparation and mailing, and check sorting and posting. The act places no geographical limitations on the provision of these services. "Nondepository services" include all activities that banks can perform, except for deposit-taking. In general, these services may be performed only within the single state where the bank service corporation’s shareholders are located. With prior regulatory approval, service corporations may now undertake all of the activities that have been defined by the Board of Governors as being "closely related to banking" for purposes of the Bank Holding Company Act. Furthermore, these activities can be performed at any geographic location, and are subject only to applicable branching laws. Known as the "4(c)(8) activities", these services have previously been limited to a bank holding company or its nonbank subsidiaries. Now a service corporation may provide these services without forming a bank holding company and/or a nonbank subsidiary. Service corporations can now be formed by a number of small banks not affiliated through a common bank holding company structure. The bank service corporation provisions provide small banks having limited financial 38 and managerial resources (especially rural banks) with the means to offer nonbank services to their customers. Conclusion The Garn-St Germain Act should have only a marginal impact on the activities of bank holding companies. It does provide a legislative basis for expanding their activities in a geographic and product sense. However, given the circumstances under which this expansion might arise and the constraints imposed under the law, it should not produce any dramatic changes in either the location or types of products offered. expanded under the law. Insurance activities have not been Further, certain nonbank activities are likely to be conducted via bank service corporations rather than by nonbank subsidiaries of holding companies. 39 THE IMPACT ON SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS Andrew Carron [1982] has described the precarious condition of the thrift industry, which has been a subject of concern for over a decade. Unlike commercial banks, S&Ls have not been able to insulate themselves from interest rate risk, nor have they significantly altered the composition of their balance sheets. As the data in Table 4 show, since 1950 the S&L asset portfolio has remained heavily dependent on residential mortgages — with fixed rates — primarily while the liability portfolio has remained dependent on time and savings deposits. However, over time an increasing proportion of the liability portfolio, including time and savings deposits, has come to pay market interest rates. The funding of long-term fixed rate assets with short-term liabilities has been largely responsible for the decline in S&L profitability. As the data in Table 5 show, accounting profits have been highly variable for the last fifteen years and have declined during the the last five years. were negative in 1981, as they will be in 1982. understate the extent of the problem. They These data, however, Because S&Ls typically nlend long1* at fixed rates and "borrow short", the market value of assets declines more rapidly than that of liabilities when market interest rates rise. As Richard Kopcke [1980] and Edward Kane [1982] have shown, economic net worth declines immediately, while the accounting measure declines only over time. Utilizing a measure of economic profits would indicate an earlier and more serious problem for the industry than that shown in Table 5. By 1982, the problem had become very serious. A significant proportion of institutions had nearly exhausted their accounting net worth. Large numbers of institutions had also exhausted their economic net worth. Only 40 Table 4. Percentage Distribution of Assets and Liabilities of Insured Savings and Loan Associations Assets 1950 1964 Cash 5.9 3.3 1 . 0 U.S. Govt. Obligation 8.8 5.8 6.3 81.6 84.7 83.3 .9 2.9 Mortgage Loans and Mortgage Backed Securities 1981 Other Loans n.a. Other Assets 3.7 5.3 6.5 Total Assets 100.0 100.0 100.0 Liabilities Demand and NOW Accounts Savings and Time Deposits 0 . 0 89.5 0 . 0 91.5 1.3 80.9 6.2 t o C NI Borrowed Money Other Liabilities 4.3 3.3 3.6 Total Liabilities 100.0 100.0 100.0 14.2 n.a. - not available Sources: Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Savings and Home Financing Source Book 1955 (Washington: Federal Home Loan Bank Board, 1955); and Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Combined Financial Statements, 1965 and 1981 (Washington: Federal Home Loan Bank Board, 1955). 41 Table 5. Profitability of Insured Savings and Loan Associations Net Income as Percent of Year 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Total Assets .64 .49 .45 .58 .66 .54 .66 .71 .72 .52 .44 .59 .71 .77 .64 .13 -.71 Total Net Worth 9.41 7.00 6.61 8.40 9.29 7.71 9.84 11.45 11.61 8.38 7.58 10.53 12.90 14.00 11.63 2.45 -16.51 Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Combined Financial Statements, 1975 and 1981 (Federal Home Loan Bank Board, 1975 and 1981). 42 the existence of deposit insurance prevented large scale runs on the S&L industry. The FSLIC's resources were under heavy stress. The need to recapitalize the industry and prevent future crises forced Congress to consider a revision of policy towards the industry. The Garn-St Germain Act was the result. This was not the first time that policymakers had considered restructuring the industry. It had been recognized as early as 1971, in the Hunt Commission Report, that S&Ls would need extended powers to enable them to successfully compete in the changing technological, regulatory, and economic environment of the 1970s and 1980s. 20 Regulations designed for a previous era, by hindering the S&L adjustment process, posed a serious threat to the industry’s soundness. Despite Congress' several attempts to meet the industry's needs, it was not until 1978 that progress began toward achieving the necessary revisions. 21 And even then, the changes were initiated by regulatory decree rather than Congressional action. With the 1980 pasage of DIDMCA, Congress took the first steps towards restructuring the industry. However, only with the passage of the Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act did Congress fully address the industry's problems. It chose a two part package to accomplish this goal. First, Congress gave S&Ls greater flexibility in constructing their asset and liability portfolios. Second, Congress gave regulators emergency powers to deal with distressed institutions. The impact of the provisions affecting the savings and loan industry's asset portfolio, its liability portfolio, and the regulators' supervisory powers will be considered in turn. 43 The New Asset Powers Over the years S&Ls have faced fewer and fewer restrictions on the types and quantities of assets they may hold. presented in Table 6 . The history of this deregulation is The Garn-St Germain Act’s contribution to this process is to relax portfolio restrictions in two areas: consumer lending. commercial lending, and The act also relaxes portfolio restrictions relating to government lending; however, the act’s impact in this area is relatively minor. These changes are all documented in Table 6 . 1. Commercial Lending The most radical departure of Title III is the permission for S&Ls to engage in commercial lending. While some minor provision for S&L lending to business had been made under the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980, the present powers are more substantial. aspects of these commercial lending powers are discussed below. 22 Four The first provision simply expands S&Ls’ existing power to make loans secured by commercial real estate. The second and third provisions are completely new — they allow S&Ls to make both secured and unsecured loans to business, and to engage in leasing. The fourth provision inadvertently removed S&L authority to make construction loans. The Depository Institutions Deregulation Act of 1980 had given S&Ls the power to make commercial real estate loans up to 20 percent of assets. current act raises this limit to 40 percent of assets. The The present act also drops the 1980 requirement that the association have the first lien on the property. Removal of this requirement will enable savings and loan associations to make loans to business in order to finance the purchase of capital goods and inventories. Henceforth, businesses may borrow against the 44 Table 6 The Changing Portfolio Limitations on the Assets of Federally Chartered Savings and Loan Associations (percent of total assets) Classification Description Residential Residential mortgages Rate sensitive residential mortgages Commercial Loans secured by commercial real estate Commercial paper and Corporate debt Securities Commercial loans Construction loans Equpiment loans Consumer Government Footnotes: Tangible personal property (inc. leasing) Consumer loans (incident to household purposes — including inventory & floor planning loans) Credit card Overdrafts secured, incident to transaction accounts Education loans Federal government, guaranteed agency, or housing related State and local government “loan to value ratio ^loan to value ratio .first lien only ?5% before 1984 ^general obligations no more than 10% to Pre 1979 June '79 March '80 Oct. '82 100 0 100 100 100} 1001 100^ 100 0 0 20 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 5 20 0 5 100 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 5 100 100 100 0 100 0 100 100^ 100 100b 3 40 100, 104 0 100 10 30 90% removed (plus limited home-state real estate) any one issuer, except general obligations 45 equity in their real estate holdings to finance these non-real estate activities. The second provision relating to commercial lending activities allows associations to invest up to 5 percent of their assets in either secured or unsecured loans for business purposes. increased to 10 percent of assets. On January 1, 1984 this authority is The 1982 act gives S&Ls a third commercial lending power; for the first time they may invest up to 10 percent of their assets in tangible property to be used for leasing purposes. The fourth provision has inadvertently reduced S&L commercial lending powers. The DIDMCA of 1980 permitted S&Ls to invest up to 5 percent of their assets in construction loans. An error in drafting the 1982 act removed this authority. Attempts, made during December 1982, to amend the act to restore the construction loan authority, were unsuccessful. Finally, to facilitate use of these new powers, S&Ls were allowed to offer demand deposits to corporate customers. The impact of these four provisions, taken together, is potentially important. Savings and loan associations, if they were to exercise these four powers to their full extent, could devote up to 60 percent of their assets to satisfying the funding needs of business. If the associations make use of the comparative advantage they have, as a result of their knowledge of local market conditions and the credit-worthiness and potential profitability of local enterprises, they could provide significant competition to commercial banks in this segment of the loan market. 2. Consumer Lending The 1980 Depository Institutions Act had made a significant contribution toward increasing the range of S&L lending activities by permitting up to 20 46 percent of assets to be used to make consumer loans. the limit to 30 percent of assets. The 1982 act increases The range of activities encompassed within the consumer lending category is also broadened under the present act to include inventory and floor-planning loans. Such a broad interpretation of the term, "consumer lending," could, in fact raise the percentage of assets devoted to de. facto commercial lending purposes to a figure as high as 90 percent of assets. This broad definition of a consumer loan should allow S&Ls in states that have usury laws imposed on the more traditional form of consumer loans to escape the interest rate restriction. Usury ceilings on consumer loans were not removed either by the DIDMCA of 1980 or the present act. 3. Government Securities The authority, given by the Garn-St Germain Act, to invest in federal, state, and local government securities is not unprecedented. The DIDMCA, for example, permitted S&Ls to invest in fully guaranteed federal government and agency securities and in the general obligations of any state or locality without limit. Further, associations could invest up to 5 percent of assets and not more than 100 percent of net worth in "prudent" investments of its home state, its agents and localities. These latter state and local investments, however were to be related to residential real estate purposes. The present act extends S&L powers to invest in state and local securities. Associations are permitted to invest as much as they wish in state and local securities subject only to the safety and soundness provision that "an association may not invest more than 10 per centum of its capital and surplus in obligations of any one issuer, exclusive of investments in general obligations of any issuer" (Title III, Section 324). While the act does 47 broaden the power of S&Ls to invest in state and local securities, the unlimited ability to hold general obligations of state and local governments was given to S&Ls under the DIDMC Act of 1980. It will be argued later that these older powers, together with the new ones, are potentially important to S&L profitability. Summary In short, the act gives savings and loan associations broad powers to shift their portfolio composition away from dependence on residential real estate lending to other areas. To what extent will S&Ls utilize these powers? In order to answer this question, the potential benefits from asset diversification must be counter-balanced against the costs of their adoption. The following two sections of the paper are devoted to a discussion of these benefits and costs. THE POTENTIAL BENEFITS FROM ASSETS DIVERSIFICATION By improving net income, the new powers, granted by the act, make it easier for S&Ls to recoup their losses arising from their previous exposure to interest rate risk. In addition, by making it less difficult to reduce exposure to this risk, the act will, in time, enable S&Ls to avoid a repetition of their recent earnings squeeze. The present section first discusses the act’s likely impact on net income and then examines its impact on risk avoidance. Raising Net Income The act’s changes offer S&Ls the opportunity to increase net income and reduce the riskiness of that income. Net income will increase for two 48 reasons. First, there is considerable variation in the efficiency of individual banks and S&Ls. Permitting S&Ls to enter commercial and consumer loan markets will provide relatively efficient S&Ls with an opportunity to take business away from those commercial banks that are relatively inefficient. industry. However, these new activities do pose some challenges for the Consumer and commercial lending are considerably different from mortgage lending. Loan processing costs are higher for consumer loans, while both are subject to greater default risk and are less easily resold in secondary markets. commercial loans. lender. The lending process is also different, particularly for Mortgage lending is a retail operation: people come to the Commercial leading involves more individualized sales effort. Second, asset diversification may enable thrifts to reduce their average interest costs below levels that would otherwise prevail. In the past, thrifts have often offered a higher interest-rate than have commercial banks. This differential permitted thrifts to compensate depositors for the lack of transaction accounts, consumer loan services, commercial loan services and trust services. The data in Table 7 illustrate this phenomenon. The data show that the differential decreased toward the end of the period. The decrease is probably a result of two factors: moral suasion by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board and rising use of jumbo CD’s by money center banks. When thrifts became subject to interest-rate regulation in 1966, the differential was incorporated into the Regulation Q ceiling. The removal of restrictions on thrift activities, under the 1980 and current acts, makes it increasingly possible for thrifts to offer full-service banking. This ability can ultimately, but not immediately, decrease the differential necessary for thrifts to attract funds. 49 Table 7 The S&L Commerical Bank Differential Prior to the Extension of Regulation Q to the Savings and Loan Industry Average rates paid on Passbook at S&Ls 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 SOURCES: 2.52 2.58 2.69 2.81 2.78 2.94 3.03 3.26 3.58 3.53 3.86 3.90 4.08 4.17 4.18 4.23 Average Rates paid on Time Deposit by CBs .92 1.01 1.13 1.30 1.30 1.36 1.58 2.08 2.20 2.36 2.58 2.73 3.23 3.34 3.47 3.73 The Differential 1.61 1.57 1.56 1.51 1.57 1.58 1.45 1.18 1.18 1.17 1.28 1.17 .85 .83 .71 .50 Reg. Q Passbook Ceiling 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5/4.0 4.0 Average S&L passbook rates were obtained from Savings and Home Financing Sourcebook, Washington, D.C.: Federal Home Loan Bank Board (various years). Average rates for commercial bank time deposits were obtained from Banking and Monetary Statistics 1941-1970, Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (1976). Regulation Q ceiling rates on commercial bank passbook accounts were obtained from various issues of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. 50 Reducing Risk Utilizing the powers granted in the 1980 and present acts can, however, benefit earnings in another way. Institutions, which borrow short and lend long at fixed rates, have suffered in recent years from the detrimental effects of unanticipated movements in interest rates. When the time profiles of assets and liabilities are mismatched in this way, unexpected movements in market interest rates that reflect changes in the rate of inflation, cause the market value of liabilities to change less rapidly than the market value of assets — interest rate risk. That is, interest expense adjusts immediately while interest income adjusts slowly. When interest rates unexpectedly rise, this results in protracted accounting losses, a gradual decline in accounting net worth, and an immediate decline in economic net worth. Duration While the impact of the gap between the maturities of assets and liabilities is easy to comprehend, it has been found to be too imprecise a tool for a careful consideration of the thrift industry exposure to interest rate risk. received. Maturities reflect only the date at which the final payment is During periods of high interest rates, any final payment may be dominated by the flow of interest payments on the loan made prior to its maturity. phenomenon. The concept of duration has been designed to account for this Duration measures the average - a weighted average - time at which cash payments are received. The weights applied to the different time periods (measured in years), are the ratios of the present values of cash payments received in different periods to the sum of such present values. The discount factor used to calculate these present values is l/(l+r)t where r is the riskless rate of interest. 23 51 The use of duration as a measure of exposure to interest rate risk has intuitive appeal. An assetfs duration approximates the percentage decrease (increase) in its market value which occurs when interest rates rise (fall) by 1 percentage point. Thus, the longer an asset's duration, the greater is the loss (gain) in market value when interest rates rise (fall). The difference between the durations of assets and liabilities provides, therefore, a good rule of thumb for measuring an S&L's exposure to interest rate risk. When there is no difference, S&L profits are not affected by movements in interest rates. Such an association is said to be immunized against interest rate risk. Using such an approach then, it is possible to compare, at any time, the durations of savings and loan assets and liabilities. Typically, the duration of assets is considerably longer than that of liabilities. This mismatch in durations exposes the institution (and indeed the industry in general) to interest rate risk. approaches. The risk can be reduced by either or both of two The duration of assets can be reduced or that of liabilities can be increased. The contribution of the 1982 act toward lengthening the duration of liabilities will be discussed in the following section. The remainder of this section is devoted to discussing the act's implications for asset duration. Accomplishing the Risk Reduction Part A of Table 8 shows the derivation of the asset duration of a typical S&L. The duration of the whole asset portfolio is calculated by weighting the estimated durations of individual asset components by their relative importance in the portfolio. Researchers have estimated that the typical fixed rate mortgage has a duration of 5 years; this will clearly dominate any 52 Table 8 The Impact of Loan Portfolio Composition on Asset Duration A. Asset Duration of a Typical S&L Pre 1980. Mortgages Liquidity Portfolio Fixed, Long Term Assets Other Assets Percent of Assets Duration (years) 82 7 3 8 5.0 0.5 10.0 10.0 Duration of entire asset portfolio B. 5.235 Asset Duration of a Typical S&L Post Garn-St Germain Holding 18 Percent Commercial and Consumer Loans. Mortgages Liquidity Portfolio Fixed, Long Term Assets ^ Consumer and Commercial Loans1 Other Assets 64 7 3 18 8 Duration of entire asset portfolio C. 5.0 0.5 10.0 1.47 10.0 4.602 Asset Duration of a Typical S&L Holding 30 percent Commmercial and Consumer Loans Mortgages Liquidity Portfolio Fixed Long Term Assets Consumer and Commercial Loans Other Assets Duration of entire asset portfolio Source: NOTE: 52 7 3 30 8 5.0 .5 10.0 1.47 10.0 4.176 Harvey Rosenblum, Deposit Strategies for Minimizing the Interest Rate Risk Exposures of S&Ls. 1. Assumes that a typical loan has a maturity of 2 years, and is fully amortized, and that the two end of year cash payments are discounted at a rate of 10 percent a year. 53 estimate of an S&Ls average asset duration. In the example given, two of the other three asset components have longer durations than mortgages. Consequently, the institution's average duration is 5.2 years. 24 A plausible estimate of the duration of a typical consumer or commercial loan is 1.47 years. 25 Consequently, shifting assets from any of the three long duration categories in Table 8 into consumer or commercial loans will reduce the average duration of the full asset portfolio. Reducing asset duration will decrease the duration mismatch between assets and liabilities and lessen the exposure to interest rate risk. This will reduce losses suffered when interest rates rise unexpectedly. Given present market conditions, it is calculated that shifting 10 percent of the mortgage portfolio to commercial and consumer loans might reduce asset-side duration by about .35 years. Part B of Table 8 shows the assumptions made in deriving the estimate that shifting 18 percent of assets from mortgages to consumer and commercial lending will reduce asset side duration to 4.6 years. Part C of Table 8 demonstrates that redeploying 30 percent of assets from mortgages to consumer and commercial loans would reduce asset duration to 4.2 years. Similarly, further shifts to place 40 percent of assets into short loans would reduce duration to 3.6 years. The relationship between asset duration and the percentage of assets held in commercial and consumer loans is shown in Figure 1. Using Rosenblum's [1982] estimate that the average duration of liabilities is 1.27 years, redeploying 10 percent of assets from mortgages to consumer and commercial loans would reduce exposure to interest rate risk by approximately 9 percent. Redeploying 40 percent of assets would reduce interest rate risk by 35 percent. 54 Figure 1 The Relationship Between Asset Duration and Portfolio Composition Duration (in years) Percent of Assets Shifted from Mortgages to Consumer and Commercial Loans 55 Table 9 Use of Adjustable Rate Mortgages by Size Class (outstanding amounts of adjustable rate mortgages as a percentage of total mortgages) Asset size in millions of dollars Illinois California Florida 0-100 3.24 13.96 2.90 6.04 100-500 2.97 7.18 3.67 8.60 500-1,000 4.55 6.76 4.00 3.33 11.87 6.26 8.16 7.33 > 1,000 SOURCE: Texas Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Semiannual Report of Condition, June 1982. 56 In summary then, it is argued that utilizing the new asset powers embodied in DIDMCA and the Garn-St Germain Act can potentially raise earnings and reduce interest rate risk and costs. It must be recognized, however, that such portfolio shifts will also increase credit risk. Moreover, there exist factors which inhibit use of the new powers. FACTORS INHIBITING THE ADOPTION OF THE NEW POWERS Past experience indicates that S&Ls are reluctant to diversify their portfolios. One example is provided by the slow adoption of the variable-rate mortgage instruments, permitted first in the state of California and increasingly elsewhere since 1978. While it is recognized that consumer preferences for the well-tried fixed-rate mortgage may also be important here, it may be argued that S&Ls could have promoted the variable rate instruments more successfully, had they wished to do so. The data in Table 9 indicate the slow progress made toward the adoption of variable rate instruments. By June 1982, the proportion of the outstanding mortgage portfolio devoted to variable rate instruments by federally chartered S&Ls in four relatively progressive states, was less than 11 percent, despite the fact that S&Ls could have raised this percentage as high as 50 percent. Between January 1979 and June 1982, funds available for variable rate lending, arising from the repayment of existing mortgages and the growth of the liability base, equal 49.96 percent of the value of the June 1982 mortgage portfolio. In fact, Table 10 indicates that 41 percent of federally chartered S&Ls in the states of California, Florida, Illinois and Texas held no variable rate instruments as of June 1982. Further, under the best of circumstances, only an estimated 42 percent of the number of new loans closed were for variable rate mortgages in June 1982. 26 And this figure had fallen to 38 percent by 57 Table 10 Use of New Asset Powers by Federally Chartered S&Ls in Four States in 1982 (Associations Using Powers as a Percent of Federally Chartered Associations) California Credit Cards Closed End Consumer Loans Adjustable Rate, Renegotiable Rate and Variable Rate Mortgages SOURCE: Florida Illinois Texas Four State Total 50.5 20.6 9.3 22.4 23.2 13.9 42.1 19.2 13.5 19.4 41.3 76.0 55.6 64.0 58.6 Federal Home Loan Bank Board, June 1982 Semiannual Report of Condition. 58 December 1982. Large associations accounted for the majority of variable rate mortgages, while smaller associations still deal primarily in fixed rate mortgages. This slow rate of adoption occurred despite the fact that use of variable rate instruments was the only option available to S&Ls wishing to reduce their interest risk until the 1980 act broadened asset powers. The slow adoption of other new powers provides the second piece of evidence as to the conservative behavior of S&L managements. Federally chartered associations have generally been slow either to issue credit cards or to make closed end consumer loans, as the data in Table 10 demonstrate. The behavior of S&Ls in Texas provides the third set of evidence that argues that S&Ls may be slow to adopt the enhanced powers granted under the current act. Since the early 1940s, state-chartered S&Ls in Texas have been authorized to engage in consumer lending. Table 11 documents the relatively slow growth in the proportion of assets devoted to consumer loans. During the early years, adoption of consumer lending powers may have been inhibited by state usury laws positioned at levels below market rates. Nevertheless, adoption of the powers did not accelerate after the state of Texas Relaxed these ceilings in 1980. This evidence raises two questions. Why have S&Ls been so slow to utilize existing opportunities to diversify against interest rate risk? And, will their new powers eventually lead them to radically restructure their portfolios? Edward Kane [1982] has addressed the first of these questions. He argues that the existence and modus operandi of deposit insurance are the principal reasons for S&L hesitancy to diversify. The absence of risk-sensitive premiums allows S&Ls to pass their exposure to interest rate risk on to the shoulders of the FSLIC. This ability removes the incentive to diversify and encourages S&Ls to bet on falling interest rates, by continuing 59 Table 11 Use of Consumer Lending Powers by State Chartered S&Ls in Texas 1972-81 Other Loans as a Percentage ^ of Total Assets 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 NOTE: 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 Does not include mortgage loans, personal loans secured by savings accounts, unsecured property improvement loans, mobile home loans, or unsecured education loans. SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Bank Board Combined Financial Statement 1972-1981. 60 to offer fixed long-term mortgages. However, this analysis sheds little light on the diversification strategy that S&Ls would choose, if confronted with risk-sensitive premiums. Would they continue their role of mortgage specialists, simply switching from fixed rate to variable rate mortgages? Or, would they opt for a broad-based diversification into consumer and commercial lending? Tax Considerations A number of observers have argued that the tax system poses a significant barrier to diversification by S&Ls. This barrier is the result of a Congressionally mandated tax system (introduced in 1954 and modified in 1969) designed to reward S&Ls for specializing in residential real estate lending. By offering such rewards, Congress originally had hoped to increase the stock of funds available to finance the construction and purchase of residential housing. An association is legally permitted to allocate a portion of its before tax income to a special fund known as a bad debt reserve. This reserve is similar to a commercial bank's loan loss reserve. Income allocated to the bad debt reserve is not subject to federal income tax. Contributions to the bad debt reserve cease to be deductible once the bad debt reserve exceeds 6 percent of total assets. For banks, however, contributions currently cease to be deductible when the loan loss reserve exceeds the larger of .8 percent of loans or a measure of the level of losses - either current or historical. Thus for S&Ls, the bad debt reserve more closely resembles a pool of retained earnings than a loan loss reserve that is appropriate to managing losses anticipated as a result of credit risk. In retrospect, however, it is apparent that such loss provisions were, in fact, inadequate to deal with the recent interest-rate risk exposure. 61 Tax provisions limit the proportion of taxable income that may be contributed to the reserve. The limitations are based on an association's holdings of "qualified" assets - principally mortgages, federal government securities, and cash. An association holding 82 percent or more of its assets in qualified form can contribute to the reserve and deduct from taxable income up to 40 percent of income. For associations holding less than 82 percent in qualified assets, the maximum deductible contribution declines as the percentage holdings of qualified assets falls. Each successive 1 per cent reduction in qualified assets reduces the deductible contribution by an additional .75 percent of income. Reducing holdings of qualified assets from 82 percent to 81 percent decreases the deductible contribution from 40 percent to 39.25 percent. If an association holds less than 60 percent in qualified assets, it is not permitted to make any tax deductible contribution to the bad debt reserve. Because the bad debt deduction allows an association to shelter income by retaining earnings, the deduction reduces the association's marginal tax below what it would be in the absence of such deductions. Assuming a corporate tax rate of 46 percent, a savings and loan faces a discontinuous marginal tax schedule. The schedule increases as Y, the percentage of nonqualified assets (consumer loans, commercial loans, etc.) rises, T = 27.6 27.6 + .345(Y-18) 46 if 0 Y <_ 18 if 18 < Y £ 40 if 40 < Y <_ 100 The tax schedule rises regularly as Y increases between 18 and 40 percent; then it jumps steeply to 46 percent. Figure 2. This tax schedule is illustrated in 62 Figure 2 Marginal Tax Rata and Tha Share of Qualified Aaaots Marginal Tax Rate T Nonqualified Assets as a Percentage of Total Assets 63 The Bad Debt Deduction as a Barrier to Diversification It has been argued that the bad debt deduction poses a potential barrier to diversification since increasing holdings of nonqualified assets beyond 18 percent causes the association’s marginal tax rate to start rising. The Report of the Interagency Task Force on Thrift Institutions provides the best examination of this issue. Holding risk constant, the report demonstrates that in order to profitably increase nonqualified assets from 18 to 19 percent of the portfolio, the nonqualified asset (for example a consumer loan) would have to have a pre-tax net yield (revenues less interest and operating expenses) at least 54 percent higher than' the pre-tax net yield on a qualified asset (for example, a residential mortgage). 28 Consequently, if mortgages had a net pre-tax return of 100 basis points, a consumer loan of equal risk would have to have a net pre-tax yield of 154 basis points. Assuming that the assets are equally risky, this is a large differential; one which would appear to discourage shifts from mortgages to other assets. The report also demonstrates that, the greater any contemplated shift towards nonqualified assets, the greater is the premium necessary to make the change profitable. Figure 3 illustrates how after-tax income varies with Y, the proportion of nonqualified assets. It assumes that all qualified assets have a net pre-tax yield of 100 basis points, while all non-qualified assets have a net pre-tax yield of 150 basis points. Even though nonqualified assets have a higher pre-tax yield, only a massive restructuring of the portfolio permits an association to earn as much as it would holding only 18 percent nonqualified assets. Profitable diversification beyond the 18 percent cut-off would require the association to shift its asset composition from 18 percent nonqualified assets to 92 percent nonqualified assets. During the transition 64 Figure 3 Aftar-Tax Income and the Share of Nonqualified Assets net incom e 65 from the 18 percent portfolio to the 92 percent portfolio, its after-tax income would fall. Since (even if these rates differentials were realistic, which they are not) a transition of this magnitude would probably require a decade or more, the short-term losses due to diversification would.likely outweigh the long-term gains. Consequently, it is unlikely that an association would engage in such a massive diversification effort. On the other hand, because of the discontinuity in the tax schedule, an association does not lose much by diversifying, as long as it does not lose all of its bad debt deduction by devoting more than 40 percent of its portfolio to nonqualified assets. Thus, the bad debt deduction might not prevent a modest increase in holdings of nonqualified assets beyond the 18 percent level. The Tax Constraint May Not be Binding While the task force’s study suggests that the bad debt deduction does act as a barrier to diversification, there are five factors that mitigate its influence. First, since most associations currently hold substantially less than 18 percent of their assets in nonqualified form, it could be many years before the bad debt deduction became a factor in S&L decision-making. However, assuming that the new powers are attractive, it is quite likely that the bad debt deduction would eventually become effective. Second, it could also be argued that since many associations are losing money (and therefore have no taxable income) and will continue to be in this position for some time, tax incentives will not have a strong impact on behavior. However, these associations must eventually heal themselves or be made whole with FSLIC assistance. At that point, tax incentives will matter. Although these associations could initially diversify beyond the 18 percent 66 cutoff, planning to retrench once they return to profitability, the cost of initially building such a portfolio (and the staff to support it) and later disposing of it, would make the strategy unprofitable. Third, it could also be argued that the reported calculations assume that qualified and nonqualified assets are equally risky. It may be, from an S&L’s perspective, that the risk-adjusted return on certain nonqualified assets greatly exceeds the risk-adjusted return on mortgages. However, it is not clear how great these risk premia would be. Fourth, the tax laws require savings banks to hold only 72 percent of their assets in qualified form. Consequently, to partially diversify without foregoing tax advantages, an S&L could convert its charter to that of a savings bank. The fifth and final omission from the report’s analysis is potentially more important. The report implicitly assumes that the bad debt deduction is the only tax shelter available to the association. However, since 1980 S&Ls have had the power to hold general obligations of state governments. powers are extended under the present act. generally tax-exempt. These State and local securities are The implications of this power are important: they are explored below. The Impact of Tax-Exempt Securities on Diversification by S&Ls Commercial banks have long used tax-exempt securities to shelter otherwise taxable income. The gross yield on prime rated long-term tax-exempt securities averages only 69 percent of the yield on U.S. Treasury securities of similar maturity. 29 Banks are willing to accept such yields because the revenue from the securities is excluded when calculating net taxable income while 85 percent of the interest expense is included. As tax-exempt 67 securities are substituted for taxable assets, taxable revenues fall more rapidly than the interest and operating expenses that have to be subtracted from taxable revenues to compute taxable income. By holding sufficient quantities of these securities, taxable income can be practically eliminated, while after-tax income could rise. Whether or not an association would actually adopt such a strategy is another question. Generally speaking, an institution would only choose to hold the exempt securities if the relative yield on these securities (expressed as a percentage of the yield on a taxable asset of similar risk) exceeds (1 - T) where T is the institution’s marginal tax rate. As noted earlier, the yield on tax-exempt long-term securities is approximately 69 percent as much as a comparable U.S. Treasury security. S&Ls holding less than 18 percent nonqualified assets have a marginal tax rate of 27.6 percent. In this case (1 - T) equals 72.4 which is more than the relative yield (69), so these associations have little incentive to hold tax-exempt securities. However, if S&Ls begin to utilize powers granted by the act (as well as those granted in 1980), they will soon hit the 18 percent cutoff. As their holdings of nonqualified assets rise above 18 percent, their maximum bad debt deduction will fall and their marginal tax rate T, will steadily rise. Eventually, the marginal tax rate will rise to the point where it becomes profitable to hold tax-exempt securities. Once this point has been reached, as in the example below, it is assumed that S&Ls will use "tax-exempts11 to shelter all taxable income. Whether or not an association would actually choose to embark on such a strategy, depends on the yields of tax-exempt securities, nonqualified assets, and qualified assets. These factors determine how much diversification must occur before a highly diversified portfolio would earn as much after-tax 68 income as a portfolio holding only 18 percent non-qualified assets. The quantity of nonqualified assets required to reach this "break-even" point, in turn determines whether income lost during the transition would outweigh the long-term improvement in earnings. While there are no hard and fast answers to these questions, it is possible to work out examples illustrating the issues involved. Figure 4 illustrates how allowing an association to hold tax-exempt securities will alter its diversification decision. It is assumed that qualified assets yield i, that nonqualified loans yield (1.05)i, and that the cost of funds is «9i. In case A (previously illustrated in Figure 3) the association is not permitted to hold tax-exempt securities. Under these circumstances, as argued earlier, diversification beyond 18 percent nonqualified assets is unlikely. In case B, the association can hold tax-exempt securities. Here these securities count as nonqualified assets when computing the maximum allowable bad debt deduction. In this case, it is assumed that the yield on these securities is 66 percent of the yield on the qualified asset (say mortgages)• The ability to hold these securities reduces the break-even proportion of nonqualified assets from 92.2 to 51.1 percent. Unfortunately, in this case the required adjustment remains so large - from 18 percent nonqualified assets to 51.1 percent of nonqualified assets - that the present value of such a strategy is likely to be negative. Under these circumstances it is not expected that an association would choose to hold more than 18 percent of its portfolio in nonqualified assets. In Case C it is assumed that the yield on tax-exempt securities is 72 percent of the yield on the qualified asset. Where tax-exempt securities are allowed to count as qualified assets as in this case, the ability to hold tax- 69 Figure 4 T a x Ex e m p t Securities and the D iversification D ecision net income Proportion of nonqualified assets 70 exempt securities has a significant impact on the diversification decision. The break-even point now occurs when an institution holds a portfolio of only 30.2 percent nonqualified assets — required in Case B. a little more than half the proportion Furthermore, the loss in income over the range 18 < Y < 30.2 is relatively small, making the costs of transition negligible. Under these circumstances, it is quite likely that the bad debt deduction will not pose a significant barrier to S&L diversification into nonqualified assets. However, if S&L diversification is an accepted goal of public policy, it would be given greater encouragement by changing the law to allow state and local (along with federal) securities to count as qualified assets in the bad-debt provision. Summary The Report of the Interagency Task Force on Thrift Institutions argued that the bad debt deduction posed a significant barrier to the S&Ls desiring to devote more than 18 percent of their assets to commercial or consumer lending. There are two major factors the report did not take into account. The first is the fact that, on a risk-adjusted basis, the yields on these new activities may grossly exceed the yield on mortgage loans. The second recognizes that S&Ls have available an additional tax shelter, tax-exempt securities. While it is difficult to assess an S&L!s attitudes toward risk, it is possible to examine the impact of its being able to offer tax-exempt securities. The preceding examination of the different cases suggests that the significance of tax-exempt securities depends crucially on their yield relative to the yield on taxable assets. When this relative yield is low, say 66 percent, tax-exempt securities do little to lower the barriers created by the bad debt deduction. In this case, consumer and commercial loans are 71 unlikely to ever exceed 18 percent of an S&Ls assets. However, when the relative yield is high, say 72 percent, the ability to hold tax-exempt securities effectively eliminates the barrier created by the bad debt deduction. This illustration does not imply that S&Ls will cease to specialize in housing finance, only that their choice will be a result of economics of specialization and scope, rather than social engineering. 72 The The preceding associations powers to and can be the solving implications of sections promoted in following discussion these THE areas in ON COSTS While it is and depository money center from the banks of benefit with maintaining entering the of savings Germain section the threat in of and Act's 2) asset the S&L costs, loan new examines industry. reduction liability funds, below could any be small banks in and interest new may might Average those are profitability an increase disintermediation. powers of introduction increase likely of will examine in The each of insured accounts, staff. any costs accounts will they will simply change reaches by heavily interest market in thrifts. their payments indication coming the convenient. costs services First, these because be m o r e the markets funds on to associated for them, that these and costs. heavily from of operating clear funds the m o n e y funds, transaction no and on proportion higher is increase, come banks transaction will There relying to that the providing reduction S&Ls of money and market supply and marginal large the m o n e y available relatively increase of the funds counter-balanced necessary result the relying $100,000 This that is m o r e S&Ls below average new and deposits their the supply be Second, of it depositors. will lessening existing might facters a accounts accounts maintaining for 1) acknowledged supply retail currect powers act's problems Garn-St by: the institutions, by which their of Super-NOW paths for a the Powers turn. EFFECT deposit 3) ways, the The liability three duration, of problems. new liability discussed contribution these the New Liability on retail because a accounts large lower-paying, can portion regulated expect of the accounts funds such 73 as demand deposits and NOW has argued, Edward Kane [1982] [1978] have illustrated, explicit and/or interest gifts. rates Some explicit payments. charging for there is n o the passbook that with and the services to Kristine implicit same they expect savings depository institutions At reason or Chase time, choose in to the If new and the form also switch free to is Taggart services interest by explicitly correct, raise hand, regulated, implicit should other Robert of K a n e ’s a r g u m e n t accounts the supplement replace they would provide. On [1981] institutions payments would that accounts. then retail 31 i n s t i t u t i o n s ’ costs to raise rates not costs as high during as the any long unless differ an run . However, transition 8 percent, significantly accounts, in it from is that can establishes new accounts Furthermore, conceivable rates association phase. the that rates already a fee be are at m a r k e t on Super offered schedule to expected interest NOWs on would NOW reflect its 32 costs. This Third, ultimately market if rapidly. is illustrated institutions shift the In toward implicit short, i n s t i t u t i o n ’s d e p o s i t near that are greater and the in T a b l e now heavily reliance explicit a c t ’s n e w costs, 12. on costs deposit either retail funds of accounts or orientation, obtained retail explicit in from deposits are the m o n e y increase unlikely implicit, might to too reduce particularly an in the term. THE EFFECTS ON LIABILITY DURATION Both past, many long-term for the savers and chose accounts. short-term liability MMDA Super-NOW to account sacrifice To the extent accounts may allow duration may decrease. have instant liquidity that the people Thus at to for the payment transfer first availability. higher of m a r k e t from glance, rates the paid interest long-term it m a y In on rates accounts, appear that the 74 Tab l e 12 H y p o t h e t i c a l Interest Rates for M M D A s and S uper N O W Ac c o u n t s This table c o mpares (a) interest rates on the n e w a c counts w h e n cu s t o m e r s are exp l i c i t l y c h a r g e d p e r - i t e m for checks and p r e a u t h o r i z e d tran s f e r s w i t h (b) deposit rates that are adju s t e d down w a r d to c over a d e p o s i t o r y I nstitution's e x p e c t e d costs of che c k p r o c e s s i n g and transfers. A s s u m e that a depos i t o r y ins t i t u t i o n s e x pects full u t i l i z a t i o n of t r a n s a c t i o n s e r vices for a MMDA — i.e., 3 checks and 3 transfers per m o n t h — and ex p e c t s 20 N O W draf t s per m o n t h for a "Su p e r NOW" account. A ssume b a n k o p e r a t i n g costs of 25c per tra n s a c t i o n — per c h e c k or p r e a u t h o r i z e d transfer. [All these d a t a are illustrative p u r p o s e s and do not r epresent costs of a c t i v i t i e s at a p a r t i c u l a r or typical d e p o s i t o r y institutions.] A s s u m e also that the h y p o t h e t i c a l d e p o s i t o r y i n s t i t u t i o n prices transfers at cost to d e p o sitors. N o t e that an 8% rate, before a d j u s t m e n t for reserve r e q u i r e m e n t s and the a s s u m e d se r v i c e s cost for 20 checks, results in an adju s t e d de p o s i t rate that is w e l l b e l o w the 5h percent c e iling rate on regu l a r N O W accounts. The u n a d j u s t e d d e p o s i t rate w o u l d need to be 8.51 p e rcent if the a d j u s t e d rate w e r e to e q u a l the c e i l i n g rate on regular N O W accounts. D e posit rate for: $2500 $5000 $10 , 0 0 0 8% 82 8% 7.282 7.642 7.82% 82 82 82 Super N O W — aft e r reserve requirement a d j u s t m e n t w i t h c u s tomer cha r g e d ^ s e p a rately for t r a n sfers^ 7.04% 7.04% 7.04% Super N O W — after a d j u s t m e n t s 4.64% 5.84% 6.44% MMDA— -customer charged separ a t e l y for t ransfers M M D A — adju s t e d f o r ^ s e r v i c e cost of t r a n s f e r s 1 Super N O W — bef o r e adju s t e d for reserve req u i r e m e n t and w i t h cust o m e r c h arged s eparately for transfers Footnotes to Table - H y p o t h e t i c a l A d j u s t e d M M D A rate » R - X ( 1 0 0 ) , w h e r e R * (percent) Y Y * X * » 2 Interest Rates rate b efore a d j u s t m e n t aver a g e account bal a n c e ann u a l service cost (6 t r a n s f e r s ) ($.25)(12 months) = $18 R^ * the Super N O W rate ad j u s t e d for r eserve r e q u i r e m e n t s * R(l-k) w h e r e k * reserve req u i r e m e n t * .12 3 Fully adjusted Super N O W rate * R, - Z(100), * Y w h e r e Y * av e r a g e account b a l a n c e Z * ann u a l s ervice cost * (20 c h e c k s ) ($.25)(12 months) * $60 75 new a powers will temporary maturity exacerbate effect. are curves. and longer influence TOWARD the the By term average ENDING In THE rates lead principally 1973, and created Q a late to by 1970s, banks by selling attrition two be kinds. large and or m o r e this pressing financial received their be This of to between is only intermediate design the able as banks in new to their accounts favorably some deposit to kind problem. late — 1960s and early potentially threat rates of As on 1970s severe was removed CDs over $100,000 hampered market These retail chose in to the avoid funds, reduced the deposits. for the m o n e y market mutual interest from rates 1978 of and until funds that institutions, replaced rates by example, amount funds. in Regulation interest Larger ratings, rose institutions rapidly credit market rates paying market grew but interest depository mutual funds innovation disintermediation, market households instrument When between widened. good base. spread 1978. first direct, with first the has the of m a r k e t Money flexible rates substantial This payment capabilities. CDs, freedom spread During crisis. elsewhere. commercial the risk. deposits occurred when deposit sudden the less This thrifts of of eliminated liquid, 198 2 . particularly be regulated that funds the on institution may has restrictions transactions and and $10,000 if have rate portfolio. other a highly of its and offered Fall an institutions their the of ceilings will many placing having of Q interest OF DISINTERMEDIATION permitting second, and duration to setting alternatives, liquidity accounts ceilings judiciously could a on MMCs These the can withdrawals to Regulation disintermediation Disintermediation enough exposure institutions THREAT past, market-interest deposit the phased-out, own yield their As S&Ls lost Others were accounts suffered rising, 76 there were deposit outflows. Whether the deposit costly, particularly competition MMMFs risk have of held large CDs, has toward ending detrimental effect higher-rate assets. Growth in ask, industry to prevent evidence Reserve almost an low This the then, of affirmative that and billion of rate III intended to However, these that 1980, have the improve they powers and with powers to new were new While the by takes access By March deposited S&Ls. the the of funds new, for relevant S&L as retrieve two m o n t h s 9, very The as w e l l After be the new enable of important may important. will types proportion to higher industry. two an reduce the S&L on This deposits, in the rates to the relatively to form. increase gives to reductions with important. of Federal in M M D accounts and 33 Powers soundness I and recent S&Ls been housed Emergency Titles the funds MMMFs.. had expected that account, accounts to Act proved interest for to implications therefore, of lost Germain deal is, billion significant Thus, few appropriate. funds be is reduced. b a n k CDs, facilitated the industry's 1982. been second one way base is $310 cannot its growth was here Super-NOW in is have answer Garn-St the experienced 1981, regulators of the outflow The Title has return mortgages process these to the is commercial because further over not, pay market-related liability that deposit It funds funds is w h e t h e r the deposits reported $100 above, of to the the to or industry. mutual the M M D A argued question of S&L caused times, replaced disintermediation as lending. other quantities balance, beneficial, some the a c t ’s p e r m i s s i o n transactions step to were from money market S&L The losses At II the ma n y and S&Ls new powers viability remedy the the problems in accounting of the act in net provide associations that that of are long run. thrifts worth during industry are threatened 77 with failure remain in below purchase their assets institution. worth near 1981 from, It acquisitions net the of future, and make spells certificates 1982 interest levels. deposits out failing if in, guidelines institutions, from an rates, The or association empowers as a way and a not to failing interstate regulators to do regulators subsidize interindustry it declined, authorizes otherwise for and act having improve to its purchase b ook net worth. The importance consideration of characteristics FSLIC's of these three which previous sets reasons why the current environment. THE CHARACTERISTICS Andrew recent, Carron associations with on of and scale make more interest high the than However, above it is applicable. To associations (total less than large the not date, book, in and costs. The Seventh under associations. second, failing associations; and Plight as of the that 13 summarizes detail. and growing employee places would be particular of economies sufficient to viable. Reserve have in Institutions, C a r r o n 1s c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n Federal third, INSTITUTIONS realization inefficiency associations greater rapidly Carron the institutions in Thrift officer the all below smaller, costs. $150 million) Table for FROM SOUND costs, argues the associations; discussed S&Ls after first, sufficient are of m a n a g e r i a l clear whether assets be service He appreciated sound DISTRESSED distressed the from operating expense, of not distressed elimination half may factors average operating better information: failing DISTINGUISH important be dealing with These characterizes compensation, emphasis for procedures THAT can background distinguish the In h i s of procedures these powers District, failed is currently small proportionately information from the study 78 Table 13 H i g h P r o f i t A s s o c i a t i o n s vs. Low Profit Associations in the S e v e n t h D i s t r i c t in June 1981. (average) Variables Selected Portfolio Measure High Profit Low Profit Associations Associations ^ Difference1 "t" V a l u e (million dollars) 60,181 Total assets 167,614 227,795 - 3.24 (percent) C o n s u m e r loans Total assets(TA) 1.47 1.72 0.97 0.01 + 0.96 1.56 3.40 2.65 + 0.75 0.50 22.65 18.02 + 4.63 3.04* 63.55 62.14 + 1.41 0.76 0.89 4.66 - 3. 7 7 - 5.00* 1.54 6.53 - 4.99 - 8.89* 9.42 9.35 + 0.07 8.78 10.07 1.2 0 - 9.69* 1.4 2 1.66 0.24 - 2.97* 0.66 0.68 - 0.02 - 0.27 Occupancy, furniture and fixture expenses/TA 0.24 0.37 - 0.13 - 6.77* Advertising/TA 0.08 0.10 - 0.02 - 1.92** 7.83 9.5 5 - 1.74 -14.30* Conventional variable regular 1.27 renegotiable rate m o r t g a g e / T A Passbook* - rate mortgage/TA Conventional 0.25 NO W * and other savings accounts/TA Certificates with denominations of l e s s than $100,000/TA Certificates with of $1000,000 denominations or m o r e / T A Federal Home Loan Bank advances/TA Prices Mortgage Deposit loan rate rate Selected Expense Measures Total operating Salaries Total expenses/TA and w a g e s / T A interest expenses/TA * ^Indicates significant at least at the .01 l evel. ^Indicates significant at least at t he .05 lev e l . High profit 0.75 a s s ociation * low profit associations. 79 by Brewer In the [1982] study, S&Ls operating income deviation above associations assigned to profitable profitable are taxes. the m e a n for those low association This result Yet in is of this returns difference points. to differences of Eisenbeis in real in and economies of careful several less for less on their large than the $60 m i l l i o n vs. that that at the least in mortgage portfolios. profit is correct not have low facts. and in who had find a is [This that stable and clear of the First, deposit Federal cost rate. Home primarily is the seven basis profitability supported by that the w o r k specialize earnings’ performance particularly the risk. institutions only in the rate among banks District. differences to their low reflect efficiency. for profit Second, Loan and $227 district, profitable that data high is of interest differences commercial expenses, not to this finding are average Reserve are associations attributing operating it profit superior managerial examination average low returns. [1982] However, or and mean Carron's differences In profit the the Federal exposure standard high assets i n d u s t r y ’s p r o b l e m s important as net unprofitable of this one below average parts their that average certain to classed indicate their their CDs data in Kwast interesting These Seventh District. than deviation smaller of more one standard the according are incomplete, high scale than in associations p o r t f o l i o ’s e x c e s s i v e cost, costs.] all S&Ls with resulted lending to groups not Carron estate attributable A on between Thus, interest has two Associations suggests agreed its m o r t g a g e exposure their be generally into is m u c h evidence unprofitable group. assets characterization may It more profit (average and divided before and the association million). on Bank the Seventh institutions profitable advances as District pay reveal significantly associations rely a percentage of their 80 their total salaries, the assets. Third occupancy differences These and are data finally, advertising) small support and compared Carron's This Second, simply suggests lower interest reflect associations Carron's result fortuitously managers support If this associations arguments. of active of expenses, On is Carron's the the to is on of with scale are primary more funds better managed, a associations Q the factor. profitability, to that interest in healthy Regulation diffficult lower it the liabilities— with to expense. First, important Q that crucial expense to may be suggesting Such a may profitable argue is ceilings, better managers. Unfortunately, interest of (for associations, than the finding Regulation are total larger subject be exploit in not of it w o u l d the profitable determinant case, hand, expenses two' e x c e p t i o n s . average composition other arguments. characterization the having were attempts profitable in for differences are the non-interest lower findings economies differences restrictions. profitable that are to S e v e n t h D i s t r i c t weak, i n s t i t u t i o n s ones. though the that finding would is u n c l e a r w h i c h correct. PAST FSLIC POLICIES TOWARD FAILING S&Ls Traditionally, on an institution's book value of of net w o rth point a de was facto cutoff to the were replacement level assets cutoff point, FSLIC's of liabilities). lowered Such mergers the the of to book net below 4 percent point near FSLIC has 0 intervention in percent intervention arranged to o f f e r a to in effect. forced merger, three and 1982, benefits; iii) the of occurred In N o v e m b e r January is have (the b o o k v a l u e 5 percent. and, bad management; on worth Originally, fell intended decisions i) been predicated assets when 1980, the 3 percent. the often with a injection of new ratio Currently, below of the cutoff Typically, economies less the competitor. scale; capital. ii) 81 The Growing While failures Inappropriateness the due FSLIC to all well-suited by unanticipated two problems. benefits agency The Problem with worth not decline. capital with interest economies value that of scale Economies large on of it from risk as of (total in 1979, the they in are large provide a of staff the limited necessary not part, face three in size, mergers. assets principal are in the value of and mo r e excess instance, doubts of economic to of are lessen Furthermore, were much rationale for better when both merging force Chicago S&Ls. in the banking Allowing such at the retail is large dealing the uncertain. associations other hand, segment market, not left continuing be m o d e s t On genuine This rationale 34 to it w a s this four of of many the institutions competition. that mergers recognized obtain associations. $150 million). the to net began of a dominant in liabilities) difficult failing applicability likely already substantially conventionally more than managers institutions are market associations and scale less i n d u s t r y ’s e c o n o m i c surviving financial number of largest three large association. For there with acquiring markets. Thus, hand, caused, to the rise became banking could other isolated C o r p o r a t i o n ’s p o l i c i e s ceasing the the are to assets policy; associations merge, the are The with inefficiency, failures rates. mergers supervise began managers rate F S L I C ’s m e r g e r large rates injections clear interest and to Consequently, even are able in dealing operational with wide-scale hand, above, or to Mergers interest (market one Policy are w ell-suited dealing the mentioned the As to FSLIC mismanagement movements On is policies fraud, at of economic are currently benefits. yielding any Nevertheless, of the mergers ten to 82 continue to explains the m e r g e r "By by an important policy using mergers cost-cutting as m u c h of trouble spots 1982, In play p. the across all a by as the prior a means own FSLIC's strategy. to p a s s a g e supervisory securing industry's either interest by spreading associations, subsidy was in u s e in tool w hen outside of the as Garn-St a problem capital we net worth Richard are possible of conserving FSLIC's the industry's accounting Pratt Germain Act, cannot be resolved seeking to spread over insurance the industry's fund" [Pratt, 84]. other words, program, as or role rates would engineered authorized the by by FSLIC fall was to simply rescue Congress. The Garn-St Germain the capital more attempting the industry result was the Act as a regulators to use to or buy some net time until program worth logical evenly of certificate extension of such a policy. THE NET WORTH Title purchase II of the net worth promissory cash CERTIFICATE note worth issuance creates of stock 30, of repayment unless excess ratio of 50 The net w o rth is its the of the contains worth 2 and net bear act forces has ratio no income capital these broad risen the When above FSLIC the net may same be their net way an expires repayment. concerning required demand ratio the no the certificates 2 percent. worth Since certificates guidelines not to rates, treat the concerning institution will has to (much provisions No interest regulators purchase notes associations. purposes announced 3 percent, income. to promissory identical earlier authority FHLBB distressed regulatory certificates. net between percent act or by must The for FSLIC's however, repayment hands. capital The 1985. Recently worth as issued certificate certificates equity). on March the changes certificates authorizes certificates and necessarily Act PROGRAM When to begin the repayment exceeds 3 the net in 83 percent, the FSLIC may not demand repayment in excess of 75 percent of net income. The issue guidelines. guarantees purchase of Of these principal which limits can previous percent of be are: a s s o c i a t i o n ’s n e t the guarantees worth and 70 these guidelines certificates Table ratio and indicate 14 the that net worths 1 982. valued of They gives approximately at on 953 less than associations percent of total percent of distressed worth interest program rates situation may worth may category may move 0 and of 3 percent of all over but percent of were then they savings have for and net data associations would not fallen Then eligible, above in the net worth the second some while is to cutoff point FSLIC any one their for cease in net The to worth data they had first half of They represent these 3 approximately participation year, the year is , negative. the However, their below need can losses. 2 and qualify 2 the The between that of 1 and ratios formerly and if y e a r ’s asssociations, formerly with others, percent Of suggest of the between that the FSLIC associations. already half 60 in assistance. worth The in m i d - 1982. in quantity if assets. previous money loan of losses distressed; lost candidates is according portfolio the assets; purchase the and year. worth of restrictions losses y e a r ’s not associations and half their of 1 percent it m a y one y e a r ’s previous these since any 3 percent However, improve. become the 100 be in previous their mortgage assets. have of time, than therefore, percent the of concerning a s s o c i a t i o n ’s n e t between any a number guidelines 2 and associations distressed net of the a breakdown over 21 is to associations percent at m o r e spreads would, if subject are between y e a r ’s l o s s e s assets; to percent is a s s o c i a t i o n ’s n e t w o r t h amend interest issued 50 is net 11 in the as worth negative 3 percent assistance. net Table 14 The Spread on Mortgage the 3 to Number Portfolio Relationship between for Institutions Reporting Ratio Worth 2 Net 2 Average to Number 0 to 100 Worth on Mortgage to T o t a l Losses to T o t a l 1 Number Assets in J u n e Assets 1 to Average Portfolio (%) 1982 (%) 0 0 Average Size Size 100 Net Spread the R a t i o of of the and Number Size Total Average Number Size Average Size 9 134 11 154 5 23 2 18 27 $112 33 13 4 18 117 9 293 3 80 63 $149 -100 to 0 136 19 3 72 167 37 96 11 47 256 $165 -100 to - 2 0 0 225 314 115 301 38 225 24 188 402 $593 -300 to - 2 0 0 56 355 46 344 22 466 22 271 146 $355 300 6 92 6 68 47 223 59 $193 TOTAL 465 $264 $252 11 7 $218 109 $199 953 difference between the SOURCE: Federal Home Semiannual NOTE: 1. The spread earnings Loan Bank Financial on and Board Report, the mortgage the 262 average June 1982. portfolio interest is cost the of m o r t g a g e s . average interest 85 Moreover, permits market the S&Ls worth and to value distressed Bank and S&Ls the augment As a as of guarantee program, While it clear The the the net FSLIC merger, available time worth to or number to the the recent The guarantee of an recognized as that losses that are chances time will of for decide that appropriating occupancy to or to outlay. a in will or not It interest has by also increases the the will, in the net between two in to end, net to worth without the example, the futures total costs in the dissipating it in of the cut-off Their costs over point, net regain worth of the The occur, are measure worth approaching market). net be worth cut-off form can of gambling Managers of a worth as to a way buy revenues. interest. ultimate can viability be revenues Other nevertheless, their they time. to b o o k net below level and permits resorting reduce that it are such associations have certificate good program buys viability. is important. contribute to If m a n a g e r s the process enhanced salaries on investments risky 35 for the rise. the because to cut-off ultimately net again important above profitability. to once become failure. deplete below in participate may a good associations to net features not ultimate permits ratios primarily book rates other is begin is u s e f u l factor which worth remaining expenses program associations reaction failure probably worth the large. association's Some latter Management by net returning these potentially cash at net associations continue currently with This which between participating how many an doomed assets. without procedure difference precisely program association. will the rates fall book 1982, accounting interest industry, for Unfortunately, June by fixed worth associations guarantee immediate worth certain net a new unless is bolster of their result, announced b ook net book value worth is n o t their to percent, assisted, recently increase program. three Board economically viable and (in 86 associations, reduced. previously This will management While the also attempt has operate forever. As extends long and the decline mortgages of the not deposit observed, properly. associations offsetting only managers associations viable 20 agency worth to threat and losses purchase this that increase task of the m e a n for due to similar control program makes it possible be answered personnel." 36 by This have the old, this for of that, clauses that be the Growth process is managed such mismanaged merged out process This of by that are will give more expenses. to w e e d out incentives to m a n a g e r s ’’Q u e s t i o n s of the market claiming are Moreover, assets. expenses regulators offering not low-yielding being and accelerate operating contended be worth operating while to time. self-healing is n o t do from non-viable due-on-sale very guarantee net group the m o r t g a g e with of the some guidelines in institutions. dynamics seems of If further to regulators latter new higher-yielding their to to m i s m a n a g e m e n t decline longer, However, distinguished association exhaust the pre-emption guidelines losses in turnover to process. an operate compensation be Repayments attempted of to the to institutions. steady, incentives subject would this time-consuming associations partial remain compensation has above the rates. suggest percent associations, viability the the have net and institutions following ultimately, additional Because difficult associations accelerates FHLBB that a s s o c i a t i o n ’s interest partial 10 p e r c e n t the will appropriate non-viable rates associations will, The than an it w o u l d existence. to viable respect, accelerate, base The of insure interest in allow to this cause should life allow viable as portfolio will turn-over the In They to u n d e r t a k e economically been made important. incentives closure, association. permitting program ones. reduce willingness restructuring threatened with place, too much: long term rather than it m a y w e l l be of 87 that the corporation will associations It is despite with could net capital allowing these to be that no permit the changes to to to to is The not costless program of operate, cash. the improper management. particularly if interest rates do to allows operating without injection to determining which fail. program continue continue due discretion when hands. government associations substantial, to values losses exercise realize cash explicit potential remain to present or to and which important fact negative itself assist also the private and to need the associations an injection However, of by FSLIC is These potential not FSLIC, exposing continue losses to fall low. Summary In conclusion, ability only the of the improves FSLIC torwards increases these to the with delay mismanagement to m a k e successful. guarantee incentives, task them. of The non-viable the point is cash Because unclear, appear outlays, the to it it also finding viable due costs betting remains to that be of by Corporation merger of While it m u s t loss the less partners a it the the does It n o t to for permit cash improper to detect program delaying, seen whether the avoid the many contribution begin making to improves associations. C o r p o r a t i o n ’s a b i l i t y ultimate be allows associations. to significantly viable program makes at w h i c h the program economically C o r p o r a t i o n ’s e x p o s u r e regulators any worth deal with difficult associations. Although to requiring dealing Corporation net managerial increasingly institutions the are outlays, management this also they w i l l this the tactic sort it of of unclear. not will need be 88 DUE-ON-SALE Title in the The late clause gives part the of Prior 1970s is the to a the of the lenders management case of that the during to of to employ and Wellenkamp periods When v. of high lender must price the t e r m of loan. As interest interest charge rates unexpectedly: he any wishes to for sell, due-on-sale rise loan he an borrower provision charge and or the are Court The that, often an life pass of of of the m o r t g a g e price the m o r t g a g e to for on rate used The retain the to as would over the reflect issue received in the court argued their property rate on the alienation." a profit, expected the over the lenders mortgage. also the m o r tgage. if buyer he set When increases, house the used a portfolio ruling the on to maturity, the was mortgage to m a k e before maturity. controversy selling funds or the m o r t g a g e 1978 restraint that all clause 1970s, adjust life incentive a higher to if before California from cost repaid expected the in a mortgage, average the has on the controversy. "unreasonable rate little increasingly al. contracts the event emerged contracts. payable, their mortgage borrowers and loan 1970s, the that loan transferred during Supreme et. and the in clause was interest to due There was adjust rates mortgages can to prevented above controversy in m o r t g a g e in loan however, America unexpectedly, the the California according sold considerable interest fixed of The B a n k of legal loan rates borrower. represented, a is interest clause the the loan purpose; unreasonably setting the the raised the "clause" declare rates. attention with clause to the this ends conventional mortgage security this interest tool of m a n y rising the Act due-on-sale securing for existing mortgage the the 1982 a high-risk clause higher market the option protect began national the period to of over property transferred use C provision lender primarily be Ill-Part PROVISIONS can along If avoid with the 89 house. to As recoup higher this situation their funds when courts lenders equally and to state California. Some clause existence toward of the the significant to was in was In a n California sold, during in order and the states of the other the 1970s, lenders to relend the for since ultimate sense, the real the property estate up the a clause sought funds at a classic the of parts 1970s debate not laws to clause decision operating to to enforcement Despite attention was apply within prohibiting decision. the of the directed had over the controversy were decision was the country. generated the between being And enforceability California of the gains a state clause in ruled regulation. and as financial explicity federal federal used the windfall courts by most enormous significant superseded confrontation the reasons. Wellenkamp Second, were had national issues rights market. also two in o t h e r of Wellenkemp Wellenkamp the market against institutions states, economic clause the chartered estate over set lines in prohibition interpreted other California, restricting decision the situation legal real a debate laws the clause restrict California gains. sixteen along the and federally California First, model a house extended noninstitutional the repeatedly rate, California of recurred the that This regulatory goals. Steps Toward Even prior significant heard the California Reinstating to legal case v. of de the the act, Clause much development. Fidelity la Cuesta of The Savings and the controversy United States has been Supreme ended Court, by in and Loan Association of Glendale, decided that the in a clause, loan a June contract favor of a federally chartered institution, could be enforced despite the 1982, in 90 existence of state the of federal issue regulations, Board, room constituted for the loan include the clause The federal of ending The act use of The term in of and made credit loan of it." case the federal decided exclusively argued that the Federal Home Loan regulation which federally unions, and was Court by Thus contract relatively for clause sale a broad to property residential both the federal refers secured for over a by "real carries state-imposed is "lender" remedies the This Supreme scheme supplement controversy and include "pervasive to The Congress specifically act provides agency, credit 1982 the by associations, act override the contrary. and chartered mutual exercise Bank left no banks, savings this on banks option for could portfolio purposes. 1982 the the pre-emption. a states and management to authorized savings C law by a use the of a person, on manufactured the however, of lender and real it w i l l in financial to a go Title loan mortgage, specifies defined contracts. loan and on government is that fixed the contracts. advance, property a toward restrictions or for Ill-Part long way property Real act are a institution, loan, The providing property real property. borrower in by clause. state-imposed lenders homes. the clause of refers further on short; override loan" matter restrictions range lien the defined all by or to rights the and loan contract. There are two act defines First, the during the w i n d o w ruling prohibiting protecting the date enacted the important a (October the are period" subject, enforcement security on w h ich "window period, the qualifications of state 1982). the of loan. the in w h i c h for three general mortgage years, the clause for The window period prohibited Loan to contracts the clause created to to federal contracts, any reasons during date this state other covers the override. the the period created law or than period 1982 are from Act thus is 91 subject 1985. for to state restrictions The state legislature state chartered act; however, made by n a t i o n a l banks, and federal S&Ls courts banks, and in the any institutions state federal on and savings state within banks in the case provides for a years cannot and Second, they exist, accelerate three savings unions. if can legislatures federal credit clause, loan the of until the after federal enactment reregulate loan associations, act forbids property October override of the contracts federal savings enforcement transfers to by close family members. The act essentially restrictions on the the loan The close of contracts act also security clause of for over three the the Court to lenders, adjust the m o r t g a g e addition, management the in that however, period to it does explicitly of enact period by the can enforced clause of state be state-imposed allow the w i n d o w protecting ruling to those state restrictions on states laws prior to regulate chartered to lenders. protect the use to of the the security. purposes are significant made of are where best progress mortgaged against the efficiency. and/or the not act viewed, toward properties, the clause from settling and cannot an a dispute to w i n d f a l l be used to rate. considerations on 1982 situations economic restrictions the owners interest of and as m a k i n g arguments grounds equity during than gains, losses around grace irrespective other perspective, on year clause; override Reinstatement the w i n d f a l l justify the states loan, reasons Overall, of originated Supreme economic use clearly Interpreting The the federal use of support the compatible c l a u s e ’s u s e These for clause with are arguments the housing difficult to ultimately revolve industry. In by lenders for recent efforts at portfolio financial and 92 monetary reform. reasonable approach interfere with increasingly At the a to time when enforcement portfolio management, entire circumvented of the m a r k e t in clause restrictions deregulation movement by the and one way in or the represents on the end, another. a clause are 93 A RE-EXAMINATION OF DEPOSIT INSURANCE Federal deposit insurance was after the wor s t banking 1933, more one-third were than merged with slightly other better. became par because value, arising from attempted reserve of so investment securities more their sellers sales pay off all In 1933, guarantees deposits this way, the to United losses declined after its until 198 2 . that deposit any measure, failures 1982, at to of deposits amount the the insurance 4,000 in a forced to sell loans and been 1933 Thereafter failures commercial banks fractional securities funds As deposit par from a value for of rarely 100 per exceeded closed by the banks the of that their $100,000. runs their success. With these insurance currently sales and declined losses. need small withdrawals. experienced to u n d e r were a result, the at experiencing only full only deposits a hurried has their or of is insurance, eliminates fared time full. the closed on deposit federal and simultaneously sufficient in 1933 operate one of depositors receive on and loans acquire they wil l suffer any either numbers redeem banks volume introduced of large they w ere they were prices and many almost 42 the maturing deposit from hold and in 1929 institutions when history, States Between failed could not Because large insurance banks introduction. In the States the m a x i m u m federal resulting By the they United Thrift difficulties in U.S. unable bankruptcy depositors up were their banks liabilities, than buyers, banks into cash to m e e t the forced the banks occurred deposits. deposit and were financial their sharply, to failures their the c o u n t r y 1s h i s t o r y . commercial depression that of the in institutions. that the to w i t h d r a w the the fearful percentage many of the w o r s t basis, of in sounder Many depositors crisis introduced The on In banks and assets. number year of bank immediately 10 b a n k s Federal per year Deposit 94 Insurance the Corporation. banking structure introduction insurance the of Nevertheless, has deposit system at economy most changed time effectively to in described dramatically insurance, this as and see its it is the past reasonable whether present in elsewhere it form 50 to continues in this years examine to m e e t or whether issue, since the the the changes needs may of be needed. In deposit the this insurance FSLIC unions— spirit, for to to savings be structure and Gam-St agencies— conduct questions the and loan studies of considered operation, the 2) insurance, 4) insurance 7) public consolidating completed article and will insurance discuss premiums law, depository deposits become of insured and for insured insolvent. inequitable, premiums of 3) on the current NCUA risk, for system savings the for private financial condition deposit insurance agencies. The studies than 15, 1983. only extent two of later of these April issues; insurance bank purchasing the no the implications of banks, credit affects potential 5) federal In parti c u l a r , depositors the three and m utual system. the basis, and the the of banks, and are to be This risk-sensitive coverage. Premiums not to requires commercial possibility Congress the institutions effectively to of briefly premiums are to three submitted Risk-Sensitive By the how a voluntary disclosure for insurance 1) the on Act associations, are: insurance increased FDIC the additional basing Germain total the insurance in p r o p o r t i o n and Thus, all large deposits subsidize as deposit smaller and their institutions banks banks and/or beneficiaries to are are that that more not levied total are tend the insured deposits, not equally to h a v e operate risky on in banks. shouldering a a their risky smaller less This even risky not fair though and all likely proportion fashion only share appears of the 95 costs, but also encourages institutions to assume additional risk, in an attempt to reap additional rewards from the higher yields that riskier projects typically offer, while incurring no additional insurance costs. To discourage such behavior, the deposit insurance agencies have adopted regulations defining appropriate operating behavior and on-site examinations to monitor compliance. This has increased the regulatory burden borne by insured institutions and constrained the range of activities open to them. These constraints have interfered with the ability of the banks to provide all the services that they believe are in their best interests. As an alternative to these procedures, it has long been suggested that the insurance premiums be related to the risk characteristics of the bank balance sheet. This would make the premiums comparable to the premium structure for most other types of insurance. Race drivers pay higher accident insurance premiums than university professors, teenage drivers than adult drivers, and owners of buildings without sprinkler systems than owners of buildings with such systems. Likewise, riskier banks would pay higher deposit insurance premiums than less risky banks. The major barrier to introducing such premiums has been the difficulty of measuring default and interest rate risks, the two major risks incurred by depository institutions, with sufficient precision. Although still difficult, recent advances in our knowledge of the operations of financial institutions, in the ready availability of data on computers, and in examination procedures, have made quantifying risk somewhat easier and risk-sensitive premiums more feasible. In addition, because the higher premiums on riskier activities would discourage banks from engaging in these operations, shifting to a risk-sensitive premium structure would permit a significant reduction in the degree of bank regulation and supervision and would be consistent with the 96 current trend towards deregulation in financial services as well as in other industries. Deposit Insurance Coverage Future changes in the percentage of deposits insured, resulting from the study’s proposals, (to be published in April, 1983), could have significant implications both for the likelihood of runs on banks by depositors and for the risks incurred by the banks. The lower the percentage of each deposit account that is insured, the greater is the number of depositors potentially imperiled by bank failures and the more likely is a widespread attempt by these depositors to withdraw their deposits, whenever doubts arise about the financial integrity of the banks. On the other hand, at least some depositors, particularly large ones, will be more careful about the banks they use. By choosing those they consider least risky, they implicitly exert pressure on all banks to avoid assuming undue risks. This private market influence on the risk behavior of the banks would be diminished as the percentage of each deposit account insured increases and may be expected to disappear altogether when deposit accounts are insured in full. Then, in the absence of risk-related insurance premiums, banks would have incentives to gamble on the outcomes of risky activities. Two of the proposals to modify the current system of insuring the first $100,000 of all deposit accounts in different names are to 1) insure only transaction accounts and, possibly, savings accounts, or those accounts that can be transferred quickly out of an endangered bank and, thus, cause hurried sales of assets at depressed prices, and 2) graduate the insurance coverage so that it insures 100 percent of the first $100,000 of each account and progressively less of larger amounts, say, 75 percent of the next $100,000, 50 percent of the next $100,000, and so on. These, as well as other proposals, are likely to receive thorough examination in the studies. 97 IMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY The introduction of the Super NOW and money market deposit accounts poses two questions for the Federal Reserve in its conduct of monetary policy, at least in the near future. One question concerns the extent to which continued emphasis on monetary aggregate growth will enable the Fed to achieve the desired impact on the economy. The other question concerns the Fed's ability to control monetary aggregate growth. The two questions reflect the two-stage process inherent in the present conduct of monetary policy. At the first stage, the Federal Reserve establishes ranges of growth for a set of intermediate targets that are deemed consistent with achieving desired economic goals expressed in terms of employment, inflation, and GNP. At the second stage, the Federal Reserve uses its policy instruments (the supply of reserves provided through open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements) to control the set of intermediate targets. At present, these intermediate targets include various monetary and credit aggregates. Primary emphasis was given to Ml as an intermediate target until fall 1982, when emphasis was shifted to the broader aggregates because of distortions caused by the new accounts and other factors. The two-stage process, describing the current conduct of monetary policy can be summarized as the impact from reserves, R, to money, M, to GNP: R + M -► GNP Influence over the Final Economy The Federal Reserve's influence over the economy via the use of the monetary aggregates (that is, the transmission of the effects of changing the 98 growth rate of money to the real economy) is best understood in the context of the income velocity of circulation. Income velocity (v) measures the relationship between the level of nominal GNP and the quantity of money as a ratio. If the monetary aggregate rises faster than GNP, velocity falls. Conversely, velocity increases to the extent that GNP growth is greater than money growth. This relationship summarizes the money to GNP stage of Federal Reserve influence over the economy: Mv * GNP In order to maintain that influence, the Federal Reserve needs to anticipate what effect the new accounts will have on the velocities of the various monetary aggregates. The evidence suggests that the MMDAs are extremely popular, and that shifts of funds into MMDAs from non-M2 sources have contributed to the recent rapid growth in M2. Thus, it is highly likely that M2 velocity in the first quarter of 1983 will be lower than it would have been without the new accounts. It is not so easy to predict what will happen to Ml velocity, however. Shifts into Super NOW accounts from non-Ml sources will raise Ml growth, while shifts into MMDAs from Ml sources will lower Ml growth. will be is unclear. What the net impact However, while Super NOW accounts have not been as popular as MMDAS, the limited evidence available suggests that more funds have been shifted into Ml, than out of it. Thus, Ml velocity in the first quarter of 1983, may be lower than it would have been without the new accounts. Once the transition phase is over, the Federal Reserve will be able to recognize the new velocity relationships and use them in formulating policy. In the interim, however, it will be difficult for the Fed to know, for example, whether faster growth in M2 results from a stimulative policy on its 99 part or from an increase in the public’s desired holdings of that aggregate, reflected by a fall in velocity. In the latter case, holding the growth of M2 during the transition period to its previous rate would exert a depressing effect on economic activity, because the public, in order to satisfy its increased desire to hold money, would decrease expenditure levels. With this difficulty in mind, the Federal Reserve has decided to calculate the 1983 targeted growth range for M2 from a February/March average base instead of the usual fourth quarter average base, in anticipation that the bulk of the money shifts will have occurred by then. Also, to allow for some further shifts, the Fed also raised the M2 growth range projected for 1983. In the past, when transactions balances earned no interest, or (since NOW accounts became available nationwide in January 1981) regulated interest rates, the public's demand for the various monetary aggregates fell whenever market rates rose. This made velocity a function of interest rates. In this situation, when judging what target money growth rates to set, the Fed needed to take into account the variability in the relationship between money and income caused by changes in interest rates. Now that money holders can receive market rates without foregoing their money holdings, the interest elasticity complication in policy should be less important. 37 Thus, after the transition period is over and the new relationships are established and recognized, it may become easier to conduct monetary policy by setting intermediate targets for money. likely to be difficult. However, the transition period is This fact has been acknowledged by the Federal Reserve in its current shift toward greater flexibility in policy implementation. 100 Control over the Aggregates Federal Reserve control of any particular aggregate requires that the Fed know the relationship between its policy instruments and the aggregate to be controlled. This relationship can be summarized as, M = mR, where M is the monetary aggregate to be controlled, R is the level of reserves and m is the multiplier. Imagine that the Federal Reserve wished to control the level of transactions balances in an ideal situation in which the following conditions prevail: transactions balances are clearly distinguishable from other deposits; all and only transactions balances are included in Ml; all and only Ml components carry the same reserve requirement; and the Federal Reserve controls the supply of reserves precisely. In such a world, the multiplier relationship, m, between Ml and R would be known exactly and the Federal Reserve could control the quantity of Ml precisely. In the real world, however, the multiplier relationship is not known exactly. hold. There are many ways in which the ideal situation does not quite For example, reserve requirements are imposed on non-personal time deposits and Eurocurrency liabilities as well as on transactions accounts. addition, reserve requirements on transactions accounts are graduated — In 3 percent on the first $26.3 million and 12 percent on transactions accounts above this amount at each depository institution. Further complicating this situation is the act’s provision exempting the first $2 million of reservable liabilities at each institution. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s control of the supply of reserves is imprecise because other factors that are difficult to predict, such as float and Treasury balances, also affect the supply of reserves. 101 Furthermore, financial innovations have made it increasingly difficult to distinguish transactions accounts from other balances. Money market mutual funds, repurchase agreements, and other new instruments have some transactions features, for example, but they are not included in Ml and they are not subject to reserve requirements. The existence and growth of these instruments have complicated the Federal ReserveTs conduct of monetary policy by raising questions concerning the appropriateness of the current Ml definition as a measure of transactions balances. All of these factors serve to make the multiplier relationship less predictable, thereby impairing the Fedfs ability to control the monetary aggregates. How will the latest accounts affect this situation? Because of its unlimited transactions features, the Super NOW account has been classified as a transactions account for reserve requirement purposes, and it has been included in Ml. Because a market rate is earned, however, it is possible that some nontransactions funds might be placed in Super NOW accounts as well. The MMDA is more difficult to classify, because it has limited transactions features. Furthermore, the act mandates that MMDAs not be subject to transactions account reserve requirements. Personal (0 percent) and nonpersonal (3 percent) time deposit reserve requirements have been imposed on MMDAs, and they have been included in M2 along with other savings and small time deposits and money market mutual funds. As the public adapts to the new accounts, funds are shifted from other sources that may be subject to different or no reserve requirements. Such shifts make predictions of the multiplier relationship more uncertain than normal. For example, as the data in Table 15 demonstrate, MMDA balances have grown very rapidly to exceed $300 billion by early March. It is difficult for the Federal Reserve to know where these funds have come from and to anticipate 102 Table 15 The New Accounts and Honey Market Mutual Funds (billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) MMDA Super NOW MMMF 241.8 239.8 235.0 226.4 219.7 0.0 0.0 1 8 15 22 29 8.8 59.1 87.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jan 5 12 19 26 119.8 160.6 192.8 217.6 n.a. 11.7 15.4 17.4 216.2 215.2 212.3 210.7 Feb 2 9 16 23 242.8 261.3 276.2 289.5 19.5 21.6 22.7 23.5 209.0 207.0 204.6 203.4 March 2 9 16 300.4 310.6P 318.8P 24.6P 25.8P 26.6P 205.5 199.91 198.41 Dec Sources: Federal Reserve Statistical Release H6 (508) and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Note: p represents preliminary data. n.a. data are not available. 103 Table 16 Interest Rates Paid on MMFs, MMD, and Super NOW Accounts (at annual percentage rates) Week Ended MMMF 12-1-82 12-8-82 12-15-82 12-12-82 12-29-82 1-5-83 1-12-83 1-19-83 1-26-83 2-2-83 2-9-83 2-16-83 2-23-83 3-2-83 3-9-83 3-16-83 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 MMDA _ 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.0 9.8 9.4 9.2 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.1 8.1 Super NOW — 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.0 7.0 7.0 SOURCES: Data on the money fund 7-day average rate are taken from the Wall Street Journal according to Donoghue. Data on national average MMDA and Super NOW rates are from the Bank Rate Monitor. 104 what effect they will have on the multiplier relationship. The data in Table 15 show that money market mutual funds have declined, but their diminution has been only a small component in MMDA growth. Further, it is not clear how long the new accounts will continue to draw funds from other sources. At first glance the data in Table 16 suggest that while interest rates paid on the MMDA in paticular have declined since the early promotional efforts, they still remain above average MMMF rates. In this case it could be expected that MMDAs will continue to grow at an above long-term equilibrium rate. However it should be noted that SEC restrictions force MMMFs to quote simple interest rates, while depository institutions typically quote compound rates. more apparent than real. Consequently, the MMDA-MMMF differential is In this case MMDA growth may continue to moderate, and the transition phase may have already run its course. Conclusion If will the transition period soon be able to relationship that exists of and reserves, time, the restore new velocity should also growth of review be the the between its indeed nearing situation, the chosen monetary over the relationships that link accounts In the meantime, make completion, recognize control clarified. new is monetary the new control more and of m o n e y . the m o n e t a r y the the Fed multiplier aggregate quantity however, however, the At the aggregates introduction difficult. level to and same GNP 105 Appendix The New Accounts and MMMF Competiton The data in Table 15 show that money market deposit accounts have grown rapidly, while Super NOW accounts have been less popular. At the same time, money market mutual funds, the chief competitor for MMDAs, experienced 14 consecutive weeks of decline and, by March 9, assets had dropped by almost 17 percent, from their December 1 peak. It is difficult to determine, however, how much of this decline represents movements of funds into the new accounts at banks and thrifts versus how much has gone into other kinds of mutual funds, the bond and stock markets, or has been spent, because MMMF interest rates also have declined over this period. While the new deposit accounts may have worsened the outlook for the MMMF industry, they are not expected to destroy it. In fact, as Salamon [1983] has pointed out, at the same time that the total value of money market mutual funds has been declining, the number of funds has been growing. At the end of November 1982, before the introduction of the new accounts, there were 270 MMMFs. by the end of February, 1983. This number had increased to 304 106 WHAT REMAINS TO BE DONE The thrust of both the present act and the DIDMCA of 1980 is toward deregulation of the U.S. financial services industry. Together, the two acts take so large a step toward deregulation that they rival in importance the banking legislation of the 1930s; indeed, they effectively repeal much of that legislation. IS DEREGULATION A GOOD THING? Why is it a good idea today to remove regulation initiated during the 1930s? The movement toward the deregulation of depository institutions is not an isolated phenomenon: deregulation has earlier been applied to the airline, trucking, and securities brokerage businesses. The generality of this process suggests that a change has taken place in the theoretical underpinnings of the regulatory impetus. Theory of Regulation The imposition of regulations can be justified in situations where external economies or diseconomies exist i.e., where there are effects on third parties that are not taken into account by industry participants pursuing their own interests. In these cases, their actions do not reflect all the benefits or costs that they entail for society. To achieve the social optimum, participants must be shepherded into modifying their behavior. The shepherding influence can be applied by a governmental authority in either of two ways. The actions giving rise to external diseconomies can be forbidden (or rationed) by regulation or they can be discouraged by imposing a tariff on unwanted behavior. Conversely, where external economies exist, 107 society can encourage the activity either by requiring it to be done or by making it financially rewarding. Ultimately, then, the choice is between: 1) establishing regulations which impose hidden costs or rewards on the economy, and 2) directly altering the price system to achieve the desired objective. The legislation of the 1930s adopted the regulatory approach. Historical Background The regulations of the 1930s arose as a reaction to contemporary diagnosis of the Great Depression. It was believed, for instance, that excessive competition had weakened depository institutions and contributed to the widespread banking failures. In turn, bank failures spread and imposed unreasonable costs on others; that is, they carried (and still carry) external diseconomies. After the Great Depression, safety and soundness were to be ensured by eliminating the opportunities for both excessive competition and imprudent behavior. Competition was to be eliminated by Regulation Q, which placed restrictions on interest payable on savings deposits and forbade the payment of interest on demand deposits; restraints on permitted product lines; and stringent standards to be met in chartering new entrants to the industry. Imprudent behavior was to be limited by restrictions on portfolio composition, and the prohibition of banks from, for example, the brokerage, investment banking, and underwriting businesses. These regulations have been in force since the 1930s, or, in some cases, even earlier. But times have changed: higher and more volatile interest rates, greater ease of travel, and reduced costs of information storage and processing, have rendered many of the old regulations obsolete and/or unduly costly to industry participants. 38 In turn, the high incentives to avoidance have also raised the governmental costs of enforcing compliance so that a "regulatory dialectic" has developed. 39 108 In this situation, it has been judged time to deregulate and to replace explicit decrees wherever possible, by a system of price incentives. Nevertheless, it is appropriate to check, in each instance of deregulation, whether society’s objectives can best be attained in this way. Further, it may be necessary henceforth to invoke the existing anti-trust laws to prevent undue concentration in the financial services industry as in others. it is necessary to know how to price the targeted activities. Finally, Recent advances in the theory of financial economics make pricing feasible, if difficult. PROGRESS TOWARD DEREGULATION Taken together, the DIDMC Act of 1980 and the current Garn-St Germain legislation constitute an enormous step toward the deregulation of the financial services industry. Nevertheless, even if the ultimate goal of these acts is accepted— the achievement of a highly competitive, minimally regulated financial system— some issues remain to be addressed. Geographic Restrictions Perhaps the most obvious area in which further liberalization would be desirable— one dealt with only tangentially in the act— is the geographic restriction of commercial banking. For example, there remain geographic restrictions on branching both within and across states. Further, the Douglas Amendment to the Bank Holding Company Act prohibits interstate acquisitions of banks by bank holding companies. It is odd that banks should remain more restricted than S&Ls in this regard. Since the passage of the McFadden Act in 1927, federal banking law has deferred to state law in these matters, and the laws of most states are highly restrictive, particularly where interstate banking is concerned. 109 The Garn-St Germain Act deals with these geographic restrictions only in its emergency powers section. Titles 1 and II authorize the acquisition of closed, insured commercial banks and closed, or endangered thrifts by out-of-state insured institutions. These provisions expand financial institutions1 interstate branching capabilities by permitting them to operate deposit-taking offices in more than one state. Clearly designed for exceptional circumstances, the sections of the act allowing limited interstate acquisitions are subject to a sunset provision calling for their repeal after three years. Thus, the deference of federal branching law to state legislation has been disturbed only to a limited degree, and only temporarily, except that branches acquired under the act’s emergency authority may be retained after that authority expires. Adopted for a variety of reasons in the past, but having the primary effect of protecting narrow, parochial interests, state branching laws have Balkanized the banking industry to a degree not experienced by any other industry. The kinds of arguments used to justify these restrictions — states1 rights, the protection of small institutions, the preservation of personal service, keeping money in the local community, the lack of any clearcut superiority of branch bank performance, and soon — have all been considered and rejected as bases for protectionist legislation in most other industries. With some exceptions, students of the issue strongly favor the dismantling and eventual elimination of state geographical restrictions on branch and holding company banking. One way to achieve this objective would be to override or amend the National Bank Act and the Douglas Amendment to the Bank Holding Company Act to allow national banks to branch nationally. 110 That these restrictions have been rendered largely ineffectual, except in the case of deposit-gathering through local offices, by the establishment across state lines of Edge Act corporations, loan production offices, and the other, many and various nonbank subsidiaries of holding companies, is irrelevant. The restrictions still preclude a particular form of organization, and a form that many banks and thrifts would choose, if given the option. In this event, anti-trust legislation could still be applied to prevent undue horizontal integration in the industry. Chartering Another fundamental area of regulation, that neither the DIDMCA nor the current act dealt with sufficiently, is entry. While the two acts reduce barriers to entry into specific service lines by existing institutions, except in the emergency titles, they are silent on the issue of chartering of new banks. The traditional chartering process used by the Comptroller of the Currency, the FHLBB, and most state banking departments gave considerable weight to the financial condition of existing institutions and the "convenience and needs of the community". It is now recognized that such an approach is basically incompatible with a competitive financial system. Therefore, the chartering agencies, within the broad range of discretion granted them by legislation, are working to adjust their entry criteria to the changing environment. At some point, nevertheless, it may become necessary to amend the National Bank Act, in order to liberalize further the criteria that are being applied in judging charter applications. Asymmetrically, the Federal Home Loan Bank Board has already been given the necessary flexibility in chartering S&Ls and savings banks. Title III, Section 311 of the act empowers the Board to create and charter S&Ls and savings banks, "giving primary consideration to Ill the best practices of thrift institutions in the U.S." Most state governments are expected to respond by liberalizing their entry requirements for state-chartered institutions, in order to avoid giving any advantage to federally chartered institutions. Product Line Restrictions The original Garn bill would have liberalized restrictions on the securities activities of banks, allowing them to both underwrite all types of municipal revenue bonds and to manage money market mutual funds. These provisions were eventually dropped in one of the compromises necessary to secure passage of the act. The legislative history of the act also makes it clear that, while permitting diversification, the Congress wishes S&Ls to continue as major providers of funds for residential housing. In recognition of this, immediately on passage, the FHLBB withdrew its proposals to permit S&L service corporations to engage in a wide range of activities, including real estate brokering, the manufacture of mobile homes, insurance underwriting, securities activities, and the operation of mutual funds. During the pre-act hearings, commercial banks sought powers to underwrite all municipal revenue bonds and to offer full brokerage services. While the act does not explicitly grant these powers, recent rulings under existing laws by the Comptroller of the Currency, the FDIC, and the Federal Reserve Board will enable banks, their holding companies, or service corporations to offer discount brokerage services. They do not, however, have authority to act as dealers or underwriters of corporate securities or most municipal revenue bonds. Further, William Isaac, the chairman of the FDIC has recently questioned the legitimacy of nonbanks1 (such as Sears Roebuck’s and Merrill Lynch’s) entry into the banking industry. Consequently, the question of 112 competition between banks and nonbanks (and, in particular, the securities industry) is likely to surface again soon, and with greater urgency. Nevertheless, the restrictions on the securities activities of banks are one of the areas that need to be reconsidered carefully in light of their original rationale, the possible inefficiencies they may create, and any advantages they provide. While such restrictions originated in the 1930s, in response to abuses perceived at that time, the contribution of the securities1 abuses of a relatively few banks to the banking debacle of the 1930s, has never been clearly isolated from that of other events occurring at the same time. The economic importance of these abuses — egregiousness — may have been exaggerated. though not their Moreover, there may be means, short of divorcement, to achieve the ends intended by the Glass-Steagall Act, means that do not sacrifice the potential efficiencies of combining banking and underwriting in the same institution. On the other hand, it is also possible to exaggerate the benefits of such a recombination of commercial and investment banking. The legal separation restricts entry into investment banking only by a single class of institutions — banks; ail others are free to enter. Secondly, it has not been clearly demonstrated that potential conflicts of interest, arising from a bank’s fiduciary relationship with two sets of clients (borrowers and depositors), can be avoided by simply restructuring the bank’s internal operations. To the extent that this result is achieved by the erection of a ’’Chinese Wall” , analogous to that separating bank lending and trust department activities, the synergism alleged to inhere in such a combination of activities — to offer both of them — which is the major argument for allowing a bank would be lost. The benefits to be derived from commercial bank entry into expanded securities activities — e.g., municipal 113 revenue bond underwriting — appear miniscule, although this remains a point of considerable controversy. Third, there is little or no evidence on how much value customers place on the convenience of being able to bank and carry out securities transactions at the same institution. On balance, the close matching of advantages and disadvantages suggests the need for a much more fundamental reappraisal of the Glass-Steagall restrictions than has been undertaken to date. Depository Institution Powers Both DIDMCA and the Garn-St Germain Act do much to expand the asset and liability powers of nonbank depository institutions, particularly in the areas of consumer and commercial lending, the offering of transaction accounts, and — since DIDCfs actions in late 1982 — the offering of a savings deposit instrument (almost) free of reserve requirements and interest rate restrictions and a transaction account paying market interest rates. These changes greatly lessen, but do not eliminate, legally enforced specialization by depository financial institutions. To achieve complete elimination would require not only the removal of all maximum percentage restrictions on various types of assets that thrift institutions may acquire, but also the repeal, or further pruning, of the bad-debt deduction provisions that give savings and loan associations such an enormous incentive to concentrate on residential lending. If the country still wishes to subsidize housing construction, it would be preferable to make such subsidies direct and explicit, so that their costs can be more clearly perceived and evaluated. The intention of the broadened asset powers is to allow thrifts to diversify their portfolios, in order to reduce their (and ultimately the FSLIC’s) exposure to interest rate risk. However, use of these powers may, at the same time, increase thrift’s exposure to default risk. While the judge- 114 merit at this time is that asset deregulation will reduce the risks to thrifts, on balance, that may not always be so, A less dramatic, but, as the discussion of the act’s effects on savings and loan associations suggests, potentially effective way to achieve the riskreducing benefits of diversification, while continuing an emphasis on residen tial housing, would be to add state and local securities to the list of assets qualifying for the bad-debt deduction. Ending Regulation Q Interest rate deregulation, though a central purpose of DIDMCA and one pushed still farther by the Garn-St Germain Act’s authorization of the new money market deposit and Super-NOW accounts, is still incomplete. At the time of writing, the DIDC has postponed until its June 28, 1983 meeting, a decision on a proposal to allow depository institutions to offer business organizations an MMD account with unlimited transaction features and on a more far-reaching proposal to accelerate the timetable for the complete removal of interest rate ceilings on deposit accounts. Until this provision is adopted, the prohibi tion of interest on corporate demand deposits will continue to be circumvented by such devices as repurchase agreements, subsidized loan rates, etc. It should be noted, however, that while a business market-interest-paying deposit would be useful to small business, it would not prove attractive to larger corporations. Transactions accounts carry reserve requirements. and, therefore, earn a higher rate. RPs do not Consequently, even though RPs must be collateralized by government securities, they may remain a preferred instrument for larger corporations. Nevertheless, such circumventions are inherently clumsy and RPs, for example, give rise to unresolved legal issues, concerning ownership of the securities subject to repurchase. Moreover, they have destructive 115 implications for the meaning and accuracy of Ml and pose at least transitional difficulties for the conduct of monetary policy. Again, the judgement has been made that allowing depository institutions to set unregulated rates on their liabilities will not involve them in excessive and unsafe competition and further, that removal of Regulation Q will not interfere more than transitionally with the conduct of monetary policy. In this regard however, it must be pointed out that the problems caused by deregulation for monetary policy may be more serious and long-lasting. Complete removal of regulations on depository institution instruments, would allow managements to change the characteristics of the accounts they offer, whenever they judged it appropriate. In this way, the situation could arise that deposit characteristics could change with market conditions. could in this way switch from Ml to M2 type and the reverse. Instruments Conducting a monetary policy that uses a monetary intermediate target would become difficult and could also demand a sizeable staff to monitor, record, and interpret the continuing changes, as they occur. Whether the market will, in fact, respond in this way is an empirical question. In contrast, it may transpire that freedom to pay market interest rates will remove the incentive to modify the characteristics of financial instruments and and to create new ones. Such an outcome would favor the conduct of monetary policy. Emergency Powers The ultimate consequences of those provisions of the Garn-St Germain Act that are clearly of a transitional nature — in particular, those authorizing the issuance of net worth certificates to troubled thrift institutions — not clear. are Whether the great majority of those certificates can be retired within a reasonable time is questionable at best; repayment provisions are not 116 specified in the act, and the Federal Home Loan Bank Board has recently established guidelines for the FSLIC to follow concerning repayment. Repayment thus becomes conditional on the industry’s return to profitability. The current provisions buy some time for further scrutiny of the problem, for the natural healing process to occur as assets are repaid and reinvested on better terms, and, most importantly, for interest rates to fall. Absent these events, the thrift problem will recur. Deposit Insurance The establishment of deposit insurance for banks and thrifts has largely removed the external diseconomy arising from runs on depository institutions. Although accounts are currently insured only to $100,000, in recent decades prior to 1982, no depositor had incurred a loss as a result of a large bank failure. Secure in this knowledge, some banks have conducted operations that are more risky than they would be in the absence of deposit insurance. As deposit insurance premiums do not reflect risk, risk-takers expose the insurance agencies (and ultimately other depository institutions) to loss. In the past, unacceptable degrees of risk-taking have been prevented largely through regulations that prohibit specific types of unacceptable behavior. As the deregulatory process successively removes restraints on depository institution behavior, new ways must be found to prevent or discourage unacceptable behavior, possibly by pricing insurance according to risk exposure. 117 CONCLUSION In short, the Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act takes a second, important legislative step towards the deregulatory process set in motion by the DIDMCA of 1980. In doing so, it is expected to further the objectives of efficiency and equity, spelled out in the DIDMCA of 1980. nor the current one is a panacea. be done. Neither that act, Progress has been made but much remains to 118 Footnotes As Kaufman (1972) has pointed out, it is not necessary that the mortgage loan rate exceed the institution's cost of funds at every moment in time. At certain stages of the business cycle short-term rates are likely to exceed long-rates. Then losses will be made, which must be recouped and dominated over the full term of the loan by profits made during other stages of the cycle. 2 While come commercial banks, mutual savings banks and credit unions also have these problems, the position of those industries is not so precarious as that of the savings and loan industry. Credit unions' assets are principally consumer loans, which have shorter maturity than mortgages. Consequently, the industry's earnings have had a better chance to rise with market interest rates. Similarly, most commercial banks, having a loan portfolio with shorter duration than S&Ls and making more use of variable-rate lending arrangements, have been less exposed to interest-rate risk than S&Ls [Flannery, 1981]. The mutual savings bank industry has been exposed to interest rate risk but it has been protected by its high capital ratios. 3 The position of the thrift industry is examined by Carron [1982]. 4 Cargill and Garcia [1982] gives the act's history, summarizes its content, discusses its impact and the issues it leaves to be addressed. ^Fischer, Gentry and Verderamo [1982] provide a succinct description of the bills that originated in the two houses of Congress and the reconciliation process that led to the present act. ^Indeed Title I is based on a bill introduced into Congress by the federal insurance agencies. Hence, it is widely called the "Regulators' Bill." ^Such loans are subject to the same safety and soundness provisions as apply to national banks. g "Window period" loans are those made between the date of state prohibition and the date of enactment. q Title I, Part C, Section of the act gives similar flexibility to the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). ^During much of the 1950s and 1960s the ceilings were not binding. However, although Regulation Q interest rate ceilings were raised several times during the 1960s to permit banks to offer market rates on large time deposits, there were other times when those ceilings were binding, resulting in a run-off in the amount of large time deposits outstanding. Regulation Q interest rate ceilings on large time deposits in denominations of $100,000 or more were eliminated in the Spring of 1973. Such liabilities paying market interest rates include MMCs, SSCs, jumbo CDs, federal funds and RPs, and other liabilities for borrowed money. 119 ^See also Hanweck and Kilcollin [1982] for a demonstration of small bank success in dealing with interest rate risk. 12 This opinon was expressed during a telephone discussion with Gary Gilbert of the FDIC, on December 16, 1982. 13 Under Section 2(c) of the BHCA the term "bank*' is defined to be "any institutions...which (1) accepts deposits that the depositor has a legal right to withdraw on demand, and (2) engages in the business of making commercial loans." 14 The Board made this determination in considering the application by American Fletcher Corp., of Indianapolis, Indiana to acquire Southwest Savings and Loan Association, in Phoenix. The application was denied on the basis of adverse financial considerations. See The Federal Reserve Bulletin Vol. 60, 1974, p. 868. ^However, his exemption was quickly amended through the passage of Senate Joint Resolution 271, which limits the provision of insurance activities by prohibiting the sale of life insurance and annuities. 16 These data are taken from the FDIC's 1981 Statistics on Banking. ^Fo r a more detailed discussion of the changes (and their implications) to section 23A: Rose and Telley [1983] and Talley [1982]. 18 The statute continues to define the parent holding company and its subsidiaries as affiliates of the bank and thus limits financial transactions between them. 19 Section 709 of the act prescribes that "an insured bank may invest not more than 10 per centum of paid-in and unimpaired capital and unimpaired surplus in a bank service corportion. No insured bank shall invest more than 5 per centum of its total assets in bank service corporations." 20 See the Report of the President's Commission on Financial Structure and Regulation [1971], popularly called the Hunt Commission Report after its chairman. 21 Jones [1979], provides a detailed analysis of progress toward financial reform in the years to 1979. 22 For a summary and analysis of the DIDMC Act see Cargill and Garcia, [1982]. 23 A widely used measure of duration (D) is given by the equation, m Z D t=0 (l+ r)t m Z (l+r)t t=0 120 where Ct is the payment received in period t, m is the maturity of the asset, and r is the riskless discount rate. The market value of a debt security is: m MV = I t=0 ( l +r ) The rate of change in the market value of this security (given a permanent change in the riskless rate r) is: 9MV 3r m I t=0 1 l+r tC. (l+r)' The percentage change is: m l t-Q —— ■ / MV 3r - - - L l+r m l t=0 V (l+r)*1 = C l+r ( l +r) For more information on duration see Reilly and Sidhu [1980]. They discuss three definitions of duration which correspond to different measures for r. 24 This example is that of Rosenblum [1982]. 25 The estimate of the duration of a consumer commercial loan presented in Table 5 assumes a loan paid off in two equal year end payments. It is assumed that the discount rate is 10 percent. Therefore D = ( 1 . 1) ( — 1)- = 1.47 ( 1. ( 1 . 1 )' 1) 26, Stephen T. Zabrenski and Virginia K. Olin [1982] report that, in March 1982, fixed rate mortgage commitments account for only 30 percent of all mortgage commitments at large associations. On the other hand, the Federal Home Loan Bank Board’s "Monthly Mortgage Survey of Mortgage Interest Rates," which includes both large and small associations, found that fixed rate mortgages accounted for 53.5 percent of all loans closed in the first five days of March. These results suggest that most of the variable rate mortgages are being made by the large associations'. ^ S e e the Thrift Task Force Study of 1980 (pp. 107-123) for the basis of the current calculations. For a discussion of the history and relative severity of S&L taxation, see Biederman and Tuccillo [1974]. 28 The report shows (p.Ill) that the minimum pre-tax net yield on a nonqualified asset R ^ required to profitably hold more than 18 percent 121 nonqualified assets is: R^ = (1 *00690-.00345(Y-18) g ( .66190-.00345(Y-18) Q 1.54RQ ,if Y = 19. Here R is the pre-tax net yield on qualified assets, and Y is the percentage Q of nonqualified assets and S&L desires to hold. excess of 18 percent. Y is always assumed to be in Based on yields for Aaa municipal securities and Treasury securities, 1970-82. Data were obtained from Moody's Municipal and Government Manual, 1980, and Moody's Bond Survey. 30 A preliminary Federal Home Loan Bank Board Survey [1982] suggests that a large portion of the money flowing into the MMDA will be drawn from other accounts within the offering institution (38 percent from maturing certificates of deposit and 30 percent from passbook savings accounts). 31 Kane's analysis is relevant to competitive markets. However, there is evidence that depository institution markets are not perfectly competitive in some areas of the country. In non-competitive markets firms price below market rates. The Federal Reserve's Monthly Survey of Selected Deposits and Other Accounts provide evidence of unaggressive pricing among Seventh District banks of the 60 banks serveyed, only 3 offered a rate more than 100 basis points below the ceiling on MMCs, and only 35 offered such a rate on SSCs. By similar reasoning, banks in Chicago priced more competitively than those in Detroit. Non-competitive institutions may continue such practices by not aggressively pricing their new MMD and Super-NOW accounts. Where, however, the opportunity exists for S&Ls to compete more effectively with banks both in the deposit and loan segments of the market, institutions may be forced to compete more aggressively than in the past. Such extra competition would raise depository institution costs, while benefitting the consumer. 32 The authors thank Randall C. Merris for providing Table 12. 33 See the Federal Reserve Statistical Release, H6 (508) for March 18, 1983, table 3A. Carron [1982, p. 91] found that economies of scale are exhausted for institutions holding assets in excess of $140 million. Research on economies of scale in commercial banking have, in general, found that scale economies are exhausted at even smaller asset sizes. For a summary of such studies see Taddesse [1980]. There are two problems with these studies. On the one hand they do not control for changes in product quality; secondly, they may be vitiated by changes in technology that render increased size desirable. See also McNulty [1981, 1982]. 35 36 Examples of such behavior are provided in Baer [1982]. The quotation is taken from Pratt [1982, p. 89]. 122 37 In the context, the phrase "market interest rates" does not refer to Treasury bill rates. Rather, the phrase means rates that are set by market forces and are appropriate to instruments of immediate liquidity, high security and substantial convenience. Such rates are expected to be below Treasury bill rates. 38 The arguments for and against deregulation are discussed in greater detail by Kaufman, Mote, and Rosenblum [1982]. 39 Kane. The phrase "regulatory dialectic" was coined by Professor Edward J. See, for example, Kane [1982]. 123 References Baer, Herbert, "An American Tragedy: The Economics of the Savings and Loan Industry," unpublished paper, June 1982. Biederman, Kenneth R., and John A. Tuccillo, Taxation and the Regulation of the Savings Loans Industry, Lexington, D.C. Heath, 19761975. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Staff Study, Bank Holding Company Acquisitions of Thrift Institutions, 1981. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Banking and Monetary Statistics, 1941-1970, Washington, D.C. 1976. _____________________ Federal Reserve Bulletin, 60, 1974, 868; 68, April and November 1982, 693-699. _____________________ Monthly Survey of Selected Deposit and Other Accounts, various issues. Statistical Release, H6 , various issues, 1983. Cargill, Thomas F. and Gillian G. Garcia, Financial Deregulation and Monetary Control, Stanford, California, Hoover Institution Press, 1982. Carron, Andrew S., The Plight of the Thrift Institutions, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. 1982. Cassidy, Henry J. and Richard G. Marcis and Dale P. Riordan, "The Savings and Loan Industry in the 1980s," Federal Home Loan Bank Board Research Working Paper, number 100, December 1980. Chamberlain, Charlotte, and Robert R. Shullman, "How Consumers See Thrifts: Safety, Rates and Service," Federal Home Loan Bank Board Journal, July 1982, 2-8. Chase, Kristine L., "Interest Rate Deregulation, Branching and Competition in the Savings and Loan Industry," Federal Home Loan Bank Board Journal, Vol. 14, No. 11, November 1981, 2-6. Eisenbeis, Robert A. and Myron L. Kwast, "The Implications of Expanded Portfolio Powers on S&L Institution Performance," unpublished paper, 1982. 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Kane, Edward J., "S&Ls and Interest Rate Regulation; the FSLIC as an In-Place Bailout Program,” Housing Finance Review, Vol 1, No. 3, July 1982, 219-243. Flannery, Mark J., "Market Interest Rates and Commercial Bank Profitability: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, Vol 36, No. 5, December 1981, 1085-1101. Kaufman, George G., "The Thrift Institution Problem Reconsidered," Journal of Bank Research, Spring 1972. _________________ , Larry Mote, and Harvey Rosenblum "Implications of Deregulation for Product Lines and Geographical Markets," Federal Reserve of Chicago Proceddings of a Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, April 1982, 7-21. Koch, Donald L., Delores W. Steinhauser and Pamela Wigham, "Financial Futures as a Risk Management Tool for Banks and S&Ls," Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Economic Review, September 1982, 4-14. McNulty, James E., "Economies of Scale in the Savings and Loan Industry," Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta, Review Vol. 30 No. 1, January 1981. ______________ , "Economies of Scale: A Case Study of the Florida Savings and Loan Industry," Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Economic Review, November 1982, 22-31. Moody's Municipal and Government Manual 1980 Moody's Bond Survey. 125 Moran, Micheal J., "Thrift Institutions in Recent Years," Federal Reserve Bulletin, 68, December 1982, 725-738. Pratt, Richard Testimony, U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban affairs, Capital Assistance Act and Insurance Flexibility Act, Hearings before the Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affaris on S2531 and S2532. 97th Congress, 2nd session 1982. p. 84. Reilly, K., and Rupinder S. Sidhu, "The Many Uses of Bond Duration," Financial Analysts Journal, July-August 1980. Rose, John T. and Samuel H. Talley, "The Bank Affiliates Act of 1982: Amendments to Section 23A," Federal Reserve Bulletin November 1982, 693-699. Rosenblum, Harvey "Liability Strategies for Minimizing the Interest-Rate Risk," Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco Proceedings, of the Seventh Annual Conference, Managing Interest-Rate Risk in the Thrift Industry, December 1981, 157-180. Salamon, Julie, "Money Funds Proliferating as Assets Fall," Journal, March 11, 1983 21, 25. Wall Street Smith, Selby, "Texas S&Ls: Implications for Consumer Lending," Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Invited Working Paper, No. 13. Taddesse, Samuel, Economies of Scale in Banking: 1980. Review of the Literature, Taggart, Robert A. Jr., "Effects of Deposit Rate Ceilings: the Evidence from Massachusetts Savings Banks," Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol X, No. 2, May 1982, 139-157. U.S. Department of the Treasury, The Report of the Interagency Task Force on Thrift Institutions, June 1980. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Geographic Restrictions on Commercial Banking in the United States, 1981. U .S., Report of the Presidents Commission on Financial Structure and Regulation, Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, 1971 Zabrenski, Stephen T., and Virginia K. Ohlin, "Characteristics of Adjustable Mortgage Loans by Large Associations," Federal Home Loan Bank Board Journal, Vol. 15, No. 8 , August 1982, 21-24.