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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Evidence on the within-industry agglomeration of R&D, production, and administrative occupations Benjamin Goldman, Thomas Klier, and Thomas Walstrum November 2016 WP 2016-20 Evidence on the within-industry agglomeration of R&D, production, and administrative occupations Benjamin Goldman1, Thomas Klier2, and Thomas Walstrum3 November 30, 2016 Abstract To date, most empirical studies of industrial agglomeration rely on data where observations are assigned an industry code based on classification systems such as NAICS in North America and NACE in Europe. This study combines industry data with occupation data to show that there are important differences in the spatial patterns of occupation groups within the widely used industry definitions. We focus on workers in manufacturing industries, whose occupations almost always fit into three groups: production, administrative, or R&D. We then employ two approaches to document the spatial distributions of each group within an industry. First, we calculate the distribution of employment shares across local labor markets and second, we calculate a version of the Duranton and Overman (2005) agglomeration index. Both approaches reveal appreciable differences in the spatial distribution of occupation groups within most manufacturing industries. These differences have important implications for our understanding of the sources of industrial agglomeration, the spatial agglomeration of innovation, the effectiveness of local economic development initiatives, and the spatial properties of particular industries. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 3 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 1 2 1 Introduction The geographic concentration of industries – such as high-tech in Silicon Valley and autos in Detroit – has fascinated researchers and practitioners going back at least to Alfred Marshall (1890). This is because industrial agglomeration plays an important role in a variety of research and practical fields, including economic growth, industrial organization, international trade, business strategy, local economic development, local public finance, and urban planning. While theories of industrial agglomeration have been well developed for some time, empirical studies that test the theories have been published only somewhat recently. To date, these studies have primarily relied on data where observations are assigned an industry code base on classification systems such as NAICS in North America and NACE in Europe.1 This study shows that there are notable differences in the spatial patterns of occupation groups within these industry definitions, which can have important implications for our understanding of the nature and effects of industrial agglomeration. We are able to look within the black box of industry definitions because we use worker-level data from the American Community Survey (ACS) rather than establishment-level data, such as County Business Patterns. The ACS asks workers to specify their place of work, industry, and occupation. We sort the Census occupation codes into twelve large groups based on the similarity of the tasks the occupation titles describe. Following the earlier literature on industrial agglomeration, and to simplify our analysis, we focus on manufacturing industries. In that sector, production functions are similar to the extent that over 80% of workers fall into either the production, administrative, or R&D2 occupation groups. We use two approaches to document the differences in the spatial distributions of occupation groups within an industry. First, for each group within an industry, we calculate the distribution of employment shares across local labor markets. The idea behind this approach is that since the industry classification systems delineate industries based on the similarity of establishments’ production functions, we would expect the share of employment for an occupation group in any given local labor market to be close to that of the industry as a whole. That is, if 50% of all the workers in paper mills in the US are production workers, then we would expect to find that about 50% of the workers in paper mills in the Lake Winnebago, Wisconsin region are production workers. Overall, we find little evidence for that type of relationship. Instead, we find notable variation in employment shares for most occupation groups across local labor markets in most industries, with the largest variation typically for R&D shares. These classification systems generally seek to delineate industries based on the similarity of the production functions of establishments, though some industry definitions are based on the similarity of the product produced (Economic Classification Policy Committee 1993). 2 Note that because we are using occupation titles to identify R&D workers, our definition of R&D activity necessarily differs from the literature on R&D labs. 1 2 Our second approach is to calculate a worker-level (rather than establishment-level) version of the Duranton and Overman (2005) agglomeration index for each occupation group within an industry. The idea behind this approach is that if occupation groups have different agglomeration index values, their spatial distributions must be different. Here too, we find notable differences in occupation groups’ index values. In particular, we find that in most industries, R&D employment is the most concentrated, followed by administrative employment, and then production employment. The presence of agglomeration by occupation groups within industries is relevant to the many research fields where industrial agglomeration plays an important role. The most direct application is to the empirical literature on the sources of industrial agglomeration, which has made tangible progress in the past two decades (Combes and Gobillon 2015). The aim of this literature is to quantify the relative importance of the theories put forth by Marshall (1890) for what causes agglomeration economies. Marshall suggested that industries agglomerate and coagglomerate to reduce the costs of transporting goods, people, and ideas. Thus firms in the same industry cluster near customers or suppliers, cluster to share in the same local labor force, or to take advantage of intellectual spillovers. An additional explanation that has developed since Marshall is that industries cluster in areas with natural advantages, such as the wine industry in Napa Valley, where the soil and climate are particularly well suited to wine production. To distinguish between these explanations, empirical studies have constructed quantitative measures that aim to proxy for the possible sources of agglomeration economies and used these measures to try to explain the variation in the agglomeration or coagglomeration indexes of industries. Because it is likely that within-industry occupation groups cluster for different reasons, studies that incorporate such information may be able to obtain further precision in their estimates beyond what is in the current literature. Our study also relates to the literature on the spatial agglomeration of innovation. This line of research documents the highly concentrated nature of innovation in space – which is consistent with our finding that R&D workers are the most concentrated within industries – and seeks to understand why this is the case (Carlino and Kerr 2015). The primary sources of data for the literature are the locations of R&D labs, R&D spending, and patents and citations. The results of our study suggest that the location of R&D workers could be an additional useful source of information on where innovation happens. The results of this study are relevant for the literature on local economic development and place-based policies (Bartik 2012, Neumark and Simpson 2015). To the extent that such policies seek to support or develop an industrial cluster, it could be very important to account for the within-industry characteristics of the workforce needed for the cluster. For example, should a partnership between the firms in an industrial cluster and local educational institutions focus on developing engineers with 4-year degrees or developing skilled machine operators? 3 Finally, the results of our study can also be useful for the study of particular industries. For example, the declining share of motor vehicle production in the traditional Midwestern locations and the shift of the industry southward is well documented (see e.g. Klier and McMillen, 2008). Yet, this development does not seem to have affected the viability of the automotive R&D cluster, which remains centered in Detroit, and seems as strong today as it has been for quite some time (Hannigan, Cano-Kollmann and Mudambi 2015, Klier, Testa and Walstrum 2014, Walstrum and Testa 2013). 2 Data description Most studies of industrial agglomeration in the US use establishment-level data such as the Annual Survey of Manufactures or County Business Patterns. Unfortunately, these sources provide little information on the types of work that takes place in the establishments, which we show can vary widely for manufacturers. For example, a firm can have separate R&D labs and production plants that are separate establishments, but that are treated as identical in establishment-based datasets. To look within the black box of the industry definitions that the establishment data rely on, we use worker-level data from the public 2010-14 ACS, as provided by IPUMS (Ruggles, et al. 2015). ACS respondents report their age, employment status, work location, industry, and, importantly, their occupation. We include in our analysis anyone over age 16 who reports being employed. To delineate local labor markets, we use commuting zone definitions (year 2000 version) created by the US Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. Commuting zones (CZs) cover the entire United States, which is an advantage over the US Office of Management and Budget’s Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), which cover only urban areas. Like MSAs, CZs are a set of adjacent counties. The ACS identifies a respondent’s place of work as within the boundaries of a Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), which are drawn by the Census Bureau to contain roughly 100,000 people. Thus PUMAs in urban areas can cover very small land areas, while PUMAs in rural areas can cover multiple counties. Because PUMA boundaries are not county-based, occasionally, a PUMA overlaps more than one commuting zone. In this case, we use a crosswalk between counties and PUMAs generated by the Missouri Census Data Center’s MABLE/Geocorr14 geographic correspondence engine. We multiply the crosswalk’s population weights by the individual sampling weights in the ACS, so that the observations for individuals in PUMAs that fall in more than on CZ are split across the CZ based on the share of the PUMA’s population in each county. Industry is defined by the 2012 Census industry classification system, which is based on the NAICS and at roughly the same aggregation level as the 4-digit NAICS. We use the occupation codex created by IPUMS called OCC1990 that is based on Census occupation codes, but consolidated so that they are consistent across Census years from the present back to 1950. We then sort workers into one of 12 occupation groups based on their occupation titles. Appendix table A1 lists the occupation codes, occupation titles, and the 4 groups we assign to them. Table 1 shows the distribution of workers by occupation for all industries and for manufacturing industries. Across all industries, administrative workers are the largest group (25.7%), followed by production (12.5%). The ranking switches for manufacturing industries, with 45.8% of workers in the production group and 22.8% in the administrative group. R&D workers are the next largest group in manufacturing, representing 12.6% of workers. This share is much larger than for all industries together, where only 6.4% of workers are in R&D occupations. Figure 1 shows the distribution of occupation group shares across manufacturing industries. Production shares vary the most, while administrative and R&D shares are more uniform. Table 1 also shows that there are a number of occupation types that are closely tied to particular non-manufacturing industries. For example, educators largely serve in the education industry and farmers work almost exclusively in the farming industry. However, some ACS survey respondents say they are farmers working in a manufacturing industry. While it is possible that there are some food growers employed by manufacturing firms, it is likely that Census Bureau misclassified such workers’ industries or occupations. That said, it appears that the number of misclassifications is small. Moreover, our subsequent analysis focuses on production, administrative, and R&D workers. It is possible that some of these workers’ occupations are misclassified, but the measurement error is also likely to be small. 3 Methodology We use two approaches to document the differences in the spatial distributions of occupation groups within a manufacturing industry. First, we calculate the distribution of employment shares by occupation group across local labor markets as defined by CZs. For example, for workers in the dairy product manufacturing industry, for each local labor market, we calculate the share of workers who are in the production group. We then compare the distribution of local labor market shares to the overall share of production workers in dairy product manufacturing. If there is a large variance in the distribution of shares, we can conclude that the spatial distributions of within-industry occupation group are unique. To assess the size of the variance, we calculate the absolute percentage distance of each CZ’s occupation share from the overall industry share: 𝐴𝑏𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 = 100 ∙ | 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝐶𝑍 − 1|. 𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝐼𝑛𝑑 We then calculate for each occupation group the share of an industry’s workers who live in commuting zones where the absolute percentage distance is greater than 25% and 50%. We focus on the 53 of 80 manufacturing industries that have at least 20 commuting zones with more than 50 observations. 5 To measure the agglomeration of the occupation groups, we use the index created by Duranton and Overman (Duranton and Overman 2005). The DO index was designed to be calculated at the establishment level and is based on a nonparametric estimate of the probability density function of the pairwise distances between establishments. Thus the distribution’s mean is the mean distance between establishments. Our data are at the worker level and in calculating the index we treat each worker as an “establishment”. Calculating an agglomeration index requires a counterfactual distribution. The most common counterfactuals used in the literature to date are the distribution of overall employment and the distribution of overall manufacturing employment. Because we focus on manufacturing industries, we use the distribution of overall manufacturing employment as our counterfactual. An industry or occupation group exhibits agglomeration if the distribution of distances between its workers is more concentrated at smaller distances than the overall distribution of the distances between manufacturing workers. A nonparametric estimate of the distribution of pairwise distances between 𝑛 establishments is the summation of 𝑛(𝑛−1) 2 Gaussian kernel functions, giving a kernel density function of: 𝑛−1 𝑛 2 𝑑 − 𝑑𝑟𝑠 ̂= 𝐾 ∑ ∑ 𝑓( ), 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)ℎ ℎ 𝑟=1 𝑠=𝑟+1 where 𝑑𝑟,𝑠 is the distance between establishments 𝑟 and 𝑠 and 𝑓(∙) is a Gaussian kernel function with bandwidth ℎ.3 To calculate distances, we would ideally have the exact address of a worker’s place of work. In this case, we only know that the place of work is somewhere within a PUMA, so we use the Euclidian distances between PUMA centroids as the measure of the distance between workers. Because PUMAs contain multiple workers (“establishments”) with identical distance profiles, ̂ at the PUMA level, weighting by employment levels in the PUMA: we calculate 𝐾 𝑛 ̂= 𝐾 𝑛 2 𝑑 − 𝑑𝑟𝑠 ∑ ∑ 𝑤𝑟𝑠 𝑓 ( ), 𝑛 𝑛 ∑𝑟=1 ∑𝑠=𝑟 𝑤𝑟𝑠 ℎ 𝑟=1 𝑠=𝑟 where 𝑤𝑟𝑠 = 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑟 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑠 𝑖𝑓 𝑟 ≠ 𝑠 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑟 𝑤𝑟𝑠 = ( ) 𝑖𝑓 𝑟 = 𝑠. 2 For the bandwidth, we follow the standard approach in the literature, which is to use the optimal bandwidth derived by Silverman (1986), 1.06𝑠𝑛−0.2 , where 𝑠 is the standard deviation of the 𝑛(𝑛 − 1) distance. 3 6 ̂ does not have any positive density over negative We make a final adjustment so that 𝐾 distances. This problem arises because the kernels are symmetrical so that when individuals have very short distances between them, some of the affiliated kernel will be in negative territory. One solution, proposed by Silverman (1986), is to reflect the density for negative distances over the zero line. For example, any density at 𝑑 = −3 is added to the density at 𝑑 = 3. This adjustment results in the kernel density function 𝑛 ̂= 𝐾 𝑛 2 𝑑 − 𝑑𝑟𝑠 −𝑑 − 𝑑𝑟𝑠 ∑ ∑ 𝑤𝑟𝑠 [𝑓 ( )+𝑓( )] 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑑 > 0, 𝑛 𝑛 ∑𝑟=1 ∑𝑠=𝑟 𝑤𝑟𝑠 ℎ ℎ 𝑟=1 𝑠=𝑟 ̂ = 0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑑 ≤ 0. 𝐾 The DO agglomeration index is the sum of the differences in densities from zero miles up to a selected threshold. This is equivalent to the difference in the CDFs of the kernel density functions at a given distance. Formally, the index is: 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 ̂𝑖𝑛𝑑 (𝑑) − 𝐾 ̂𝑚𝑓𝑔 (𝑑) 𝑑𝑑 𝐾 Γ𝑖𝑛𝑑 = ∫ 0 We also calculate an alternate version of the index, which is the ratio of the CDFs of the kernel density functions at a given distance. We believe this version is easier to interpret in the context of this paper as it tells us how many times greater the share of pairwise distances under a certain threshold is for an industry or occupation group. Formally, the alternative “ratio” version of the index is: 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑 Ρ𝑖𝑛𝑑 = ∫ 0 ̂𝑖𝑛𝑑 (𝑑) 𝐾 𝑑𝑑 ̂𝑚𝑓𝑔 (𝑑) 𝐾 The value of the index hinges critically on the choice of threshold. The literature provides some guidance on the choice. Duranton and Overman (2005) use the median establishment-toestablishment distance in their UK-based data, which is 112 miles (180 kilometers). Ellison, Glaeser, and Kerr (2010) estimate a median plant distance of around 1,000 miles in their USbased data, calculate the index using thresholds ranging from 100 to 1,000 miles, and use the 250-mile threshold for their primary results. Ellison, Glaeser, and Kerr (2010) note that the large geographic area of the lower 48 states in US makes it harder to pick a threshold and that to date there is no theory to dictate the threshold. In this paper we report index values at the 100 and 250 mile threshold, and our preferred threshold is 100 miles. Our logic for the 100 mile preference is that a 100 mile diameter circle covers most metropolitan areas, but goes no further, so that the measure is not diluted by the relatively sparsely populated areas between metropolitan areas. Thus one way to think of the agglomeration index at this threshold is it that counts the number of metropolitan areas with a significant cluster: the lower the number, the greater the index. At 250 miles and greater 7 distances, the index has the advantage of capturing possible linkages between neighboring metropolitan areas, but at the expense of additional noise. 4 A case study of the auto industry The auto industry is an archetype of the clustering of occupation groups within an industry and thus serves as a useful case study. In this section, we document the spatial distribution of the auto industry’s R&D, production, and administrative occupation groups and show how their distributions differ using the methodology detailed in section 3. Figure 2 shows a dot distribution of all auto workers in the continental US from the 2014 ACS, where there are 2,500 dots and one dot equals 0.04% of workers. While there is some employment in the heavily populated coastal areas, the auto industry is clearly concentrated in the middle of the country, starting in the Detroit area and extending south along what is known as Auto Alley. Figure 3 provides a picture inside the overall spatial distribution of auto workers, with a separate map for production, administrative, and R&D workers. While all types of workers are concentrated in the Detroit area, production workers appear to be the most spread out, with greater density in Auto Alley and the Appalachians. Administrative and R&D workers also appear to be more concentrated in urban areas. Our first approach to quantitatively documenting these visual differences is to examine the distribution of employment shares by occupation group across local labor markets. The idea of this approach is that if the establishments within an industry have similar production functions, the employment shares of the occupation groups should be similar across local labor markets. Figure 4 shows maps for each of the occupation groups where we color-coded CZs based on how close they are to the occupation group’s countrywide share of industry employment. For example, panel C shows R&D worker shares across CZs. R&D workers make up about 12% of all autoworkers, and we assign yellow to commuting zones whose shares are plus or minus 25% percent of 12% (i.e., shares that range from 9% to 15%). In red commuting zones, the share is more than 50% of the overall industry share (i.e., greater than 18%) and in dark green commuting zones, the share is less than 50% of the overall industry share (i.e., less than 6%). Of particular importance in the case of the auto industry, the Detroit CZ (where about 16% of all autoworkers work) is red. About 28% of autoworkers in the Detroit CZ are R&D workers, which is over twice the share of the auto industry as a whole. We summarize the maps from figure 4 in figures 5 and 6. Figure 5 shows the distribution of employment shares by occupation groups across CZs as a histogram. Returning to the R&D distribution, panel C shows that around 75% of commuting zones have an R&D employment share that is less than the industrywide share and that around 60% of CZs have an R&D employment share that is 25% less than the industrywide share. This is strong evidence that auto R&D workers are not evenly distributed across local labor markets. 8 We also want to take into account that auto employment is not evenly distributed across the CZs that have auto employment. As we noted earlier, 16% of all autoworkers work in one CZ, Detroit. For this reason, we also calculate the distributions of occupation group shares across CZs weighted by the CZ’s total auto industry employment. Again turning to the R&D group, figure 6 panel C shows that around 40% of all autoworkers work in a CZ whose share of R&D workers is at least 25% percent less than the overall industry share. In addition, 26% of autoworkers work in a CZ whose share of R&D workers is at least 25% more than the overall industry share (70% of those workers work in the Detroit CZ). This too is strong evidence that auto R&D workers are not evenly distributed across local labor markets. We now apply our second approach for documenting differences in the spatial patterns of occupation groups within industries to the auto industry. We use the DO agglomeration index, which is based on the kernel density function (KDF) of pairwise distances between establishments, or in our case, workers. Figure 7 shows the KDFs for the occupation groups in the auto industry compared to the KDF for all manufacturing workers. All three occupation groups are clearly more concentrated than manufacturing as a whole (that is, they have a much larger share of pairwise distances at low mileages), but it is also clear that there are differences between the groups. R&D is far more concentrated than the other groups, and the distributions for administrative and R&D workers are slightly bimodal. Table 2 shows values of the DO index for the auto industry as a whole and the occupation groups within it when calculated using either a 100- or 250-mile threshold. At the 100-mile threshold, the standard (0.176) and ratio (7.2) versions of the index confirm that R&D employment is the most concentrated. The ratio version of the index indicates that the share of pairwise distances that are less than 100 miles is 7.2 times larger for R&D autoworkers than for all manufacturing workers. Administrative and production autoworkers are still quite concentrated (with ratios of 3.6 and 2.5), but notably less so than R&D autoworkers. At the 250mile threshold, R&D autoworkers are still much more concentrated than other autoworkers, but there is no difference in the concentration of administrative and production workers. 5 Results for all manufacturing industries While the auto industry is an archetype for within-industry agglomeration by occupation group, we find that occupation groups have agglomerate within most other manufacturing industries as well. We first document the extent to which occupation group shares in CZs differ from their industry’s overall share. Figure 8 shows the distribution across industries and occupation groups of the share of workers living in CZs where the absolute percentage distance is greater than 25%. Summary statistics for the distributions are given in table 3. As in the auto industry, the variance of R&D shares across CZs is the largest for most industries. For any manufacturing industry, at least 24% of workers live in a CZ where the absolute percentage difference is greater than 25%. The average is 62%. 9 Figure 9 shows the distribution across industries and occupation groups of the share of workers living in CZs where the absolute percentage distance is greater than 50%. At this threshold, far fewer workers qualify, particularly in terms of production shares, where for nine industries, zero workers qualify. However, there are many industries where a large share of workers qualify in terms of R&D shares, where the average share of workers is 34% and goes as high as 78%. We now turn to evidence on within-industry clustering of occupation groups based on DO agglomeration indexes. Table 4 shows summary statistics for the four versions of the index we calculate for across industries and occupation groups. (Note that the standard and ratio versions of the index inherently tell the same story because their formulas are closely related.) In line with the literature, the agglomeration indexes we calculate indicate that most manufacturing industries agglomerate, with an average standard version index value of 0.02 at the 100-mile threshold and 0.04 at the 250-mile threshold. The ratio versions of the indexes indicate that the average industry is 1.89 times more concentrated than manufacturing employment as a whole at the 100-mile threshold and 1.42 times more concentrated at the 250mile threshold. Once again in line with the literature, the indexes we calculate indicate that there is a lot of variation across industries in their degree of concentration, with some industries not concentrated at all (standard version index values of less than zero, ratio version index values of less than 1) and some industries highly concentrated. The agglomeration patterns of occupation groups within industries are quite similar to those of the auto industry. Administrative employment tends to be more concentrated than production employment at the 100-mile threshold, but not at the 250-mile threshold. R&D employment is the most concentrated, with an average 100-mile ratio index of 2.8, compared to an average production index of 1.9, and an average administrative index of 2.1. Figure 10 shows the full distributions of the 100-mile threshold ratio version index across industries and occupation groups. While index values for most industries fall between 1 and 2 for all occupation groups, it is clear that the R&D distribution is the widest and most skewed away from 1, followed by the administrative distribution, and, finally, the production distribution. We explicitly compare the occupation group index values for all versions of the index in table 5. For the standard indexes, we calculate the difference between the R&D index and either the production or administrative index. For the ratio indexes, we calculate the ratio of the R&D index to either the production or administrative index. On average, at the 100-mile threshold, R&D employment is 56% more concentrated than production employment and 33% more concentrated than administrative employment. At the 250-mile threshold, R&D employment is about 20% more concentrated on average than both production and administrative employment. It is also worth noting that there is some variation across industries in how different their occupation group indexes are. For a small minority of industries, R&D employment is less concentrated than production or administrative employment. There are also a handful of 10 industries where R&D is substantially more concentrated. Figure 11 presents the full distribution of the ratio of the R&D index to either the production or administrative index for the 100-mile ratio version of the index. Most of the ratios are greater than 1.25 and many are greater than 1.5, values that represent a notable difference in the degree of concentration. Figure 11 makes clear, then, that for most manufacturing industries, occupation groups have different spatial footprints. 6 Conclusion This paper provides evidence that occupation groups within industries have unique spatial patterns. We show this using two approaches. First, we document variation across local labor markets in occupation groups’ shares of employment. We find that for most manufacturing industries and most occupation groups, there are many local labor markets where an occupation group’s share is much larger or smaller than its overall industry share. Our second approach is to calculate agglomeration indexes for occupation groups. This approach reveals notable differences for most manufacturing industries in the degree of concentration of occupation groups, particularly when comparing R&D to production occupations. These differences provide strong evidence for a broad-based pattern of different spatial footprints for occupation groups within manufacturing industries. We hope that our finding will filter into the wide array of research topics where industrial agglomeration plays a role, including the literatures on the sources of industrial agglomeration, the spatial agglomeration of innovation, and local economic development. For example, R&D occupations likely cluster to take advantage of knowledge spillovers and labor market pooling, while production occupations likely cluster to take advantage of supplier linkages and proximity to customers. Because there are likely different forces behind the agglomeration of R&D and production occupation groups, the variation in their spatial patterns could help further clarify the relative importance of the sources of industrial agglomeration. The literature on the spatial agglomeration of innovation may benefit from the ability to identify the location of R&D workers within industries and possible knowledge sharing linkages across industries. Finally, the literature on local economic development could evaluate, for example, the payoff to subsidies to certain industrial clusters depends on the occupational composition of the cluster. 11 7 Tables and Figures Table 1. Distribution of Occupation Types, 2010-14 ACS Total Production Administrative R&D Business Services Transportation Sales Personal Services Education Entertainment Farming Government Health Employment (1000s) All Industries Manufacturing 144,377 14,967 18,113 6,854 37,164 3,407 9,188 1,887 9,047 916 5,982 683 15,718 637 15,339 355 13,336 < 100 6,618 < 100 1,778 < 100 10,022 < 100 2,073 < 100 Share All Industries Manufacturing 100.0 100.0 12.5 45.8 25.7 22.8 6.4 12.6 6.3 6.1 4.1 4.6 10.9 4.3 10.6 2.4 9.2 <1 4.6 <1 1.2 <1 6.9 <1 1.4 <1 12 Table 2. Duranton and Overman Indexes for the Auto Industry Standard Ratio 100-mile 250-mile 100-mile 250-mile All Workers 0.054 0.171 2.9 2.7 Production 0.042 0.167 2.5 2.7 Administrative 0.074 0.169 3.6 2.7 R&D 0.176 0.296 7.2 4.0 Note: The standard version of the index is the share of pairwise distances under a certain mileage threshold for a given group minus the share of pairwise distance under the threshold for all manufacturing workers. The ratio version of the index is the share of a given group divided by the share for all manufacturing workers. 13 Table 3. Summary statistics of distribution across industries of share of workers in commuting zones with absolute percentage distance from overall industry share greater than 25% or 50% Mean Std. Dev. Minimum Maximum Share of workers > 25% Production 30 21 1 79 Administrative 41 17 13 82 R&D 62 17 24 100 Share of workers > 50% Production 7 8 0 31 Administrative 14 12 0 62 R&D 34 18 2 78 Note: Commuting zones with fewer than 50 observations are excluded. Industries with fewer than 20 commuting zones with fewer than 50 observations are excluded. Fifty-three of 80 manufacturing industries meet this requirement. 14 Table 4. Summary statistics of the Duranton and Overman agglomeration indexes across industries, by version, mileage threshold, and occupation group Mean Std. Dev. Minimum Maximum Standard, 100-mile Industry 0.02 0.05 -0.01 0.36 Production 0.02 0.05 -0.01 0.37 Administrative 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.37 R&D 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.36 Standard, 250-mile Industry 0.04 0.08 -0.02 0.49 Production 0.04 0.08 -0.02 0.52 Administrative 0.04 0.07 -0.01 0.44 R&D 0.07 0.10 -0.02 0.53 Ratio, 100-mile Industry 1.89 1.65 0.77 13.67 Production 1.85 1.73 0.79 14.11 Administrative 2.10 1.72 0.84 14.08 R&D 2.77 2.05 1.07 13.88 Ratio, 250-mile Industry 1.42 0.77 0.83 5.87 Production 1.43 0.83 0.82 6.23 Administrative 1.41 0.66 0.88 5.36 R&D 1.73 1.00 0.82 6.27 Note: There are 80 manufacturing industries. The standard version of the index is the share of pairwise distances under a certain mileage threshold for a given group minus the share of pairwise distance under the threshold for all manufacturing workers. The ratio version of the index is the share of a given group divided by the share for all manufacturing workers. 15 Table 5. Summary statistics of the differences between or ratios of the standard or ratio versions of the Duranton and Overman agglomeration index for occupation groups, by mileage threshold Mean Std. Dev. Minimum Maximum Standard, 100-mile R&D minus Production 0.03 0.03 -0.01 0.13 R&D minus Administrative 0.02 0.03 -0.05 0.16 Standard, 250-mile R&D minus Production 0.03 0.04 -0.02 0.14 R&D minus Administrative 0.03 0.05 -0.01 0.28 Ratio, 100-mile R&D divided by Production 1.56 0.52 0.79 3.70 R&D divided by Administrative 1.33 0.38 0.74 3.19 Ratio, 250-mile R&D divided by Production 1.21 0.25 0.80 1.89 R&D divided by Administrative 1.20 0.22 0.88 1.92 Note: There are 80 manufacturing industries. The standard version of the index is the share of pairwise distances under a certain mileage threshold for a given group minus the share of pairwise distance under the threshold for all manufacturing workers. The ratio version of the index is the share of a given group divided by the share for all manufacturing workers. 16 17 Figure 2. Distribution of auto employment, all occupation groups, 2014 ACS (2500 dots, 1 dot = 0.04% of workers) 18 Figure 3. Distribution of auto employment by occupation group, 2014 ACS A. Auto production workers (2500 dots, 1 dot = 0.04% of workers) B. Auto administrative workers (2500 dots, 1 dot = 0.04% of workers) C. Auto R&D workers (2500 dots, 1 dot = 0.04% of workers) 19 Figure 4. Distribution of auto employment shares by occupation group and commuting zone, 2010-14 ACS A. Auto production workers B. Auto administrative workers C. Auto R&D workers 20 Figure 5. Distribution of auto employment shares by occupation group across commuting zones (solid red line is the industrywide share; dashed red lines are ±25% of the industrywide share), 2010-14 ACS A. Auto production workers B. Auto administrative workers C. Auto R&D workers 21 Figure 6. Distribution of auto employment shares by occupation group over commuting zones, weighted by employment A. Auto production workers B. Auto administrative workers C. Auto R&D workers 22 Figure 7. Kernel density function of pairwise distances between workers by occupation group (smoothed using a 25-mile lead, 25-mile lag moving average) A. Production B. Administrative C. R&D 23 24 25 26 27 8 References Bartik, Timothy J. "The future of state and local economic development policy: what research is needed." Growth and Change 43, no. 4 (December 2012): 545-562. Carlino, Gerald, and William R. Kerr. Agglomeration and Innovation. Vol. 5A, in Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edited by Gilles Duranton, J. Vernon Henderson and William C. Strange, 349-404. Elsevier, 2015. Combes, Pierre-Philippe, and Laurent Gobillon. The Empirics of Agglomeration Economies. Vol. 5A, in Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edited by Gilles Duranton, J. Vernon Henderson and William C. Strange, 247-348. Elsevier, 2015. Duranton, Gilles, and Henry G. Overman. "Testing for localization using microgeographic data." Review of Economic Studies 72 (2005): 1077-1106. Economic Classification Policy Committee. "Issue Paper No. 1." US Census Bureau. 1993. http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/history/docs/issue_paper_1.pdf (accessed November 30, 2016). Ellison, Glenn, Edward L. Glaeser, and William R. Kerr. "What causes industry agglomeration? Evidence from coagglomeration patterns." American Economic Review 100, no. June 2010 (2010): 1195-1213. Hannigan, Thomas J., Marcelo Cano-Kollmann, and Ram Mudambi. "Thriving innovation amidst manufacturing decline: the Detroit auto cluster and the resilience of local knowledge production." Industrial and Corporate Change 24, no. 3 (2015): 613-634. Klier, Thomas, and Daniel P. McMillen. "Evolving Agglomeration in the US Auto Supplier Industry." Journal of Regional Science 48, no. 1 (2008): 245-267. Klier, Thomas, William Testa, and Thomas Walstrum. "Michigan's Automotive R&D Part II." Midwest Economy Blog. March 17, 2014. http://midwest.chicagofedblogs.org/?p=2044 (accessed November 30, 2016). Marshall, Alfred. Principles of Economics. London: MacMillan, 1890. Neumark, David, and Helen Simpson. Place-based Policies. Vol. 5B, in Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edited by Gilles Duranton, J Vernon Henderson and William C. Strange, 1197-1287. Elsevier, 2015. Ruggles, Steven, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 6.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, 2015. 28 Silverman, Bernard W. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. London: Chapman and Hall, 1986. Walstrum, Thomas, and William Testa. "Michigan Automotive, More than Production." Midwest Economy Blog. November 12, 2013. http://midwest.chicagofedblogs.org/?p=2034 (accessed November 30, 2016). 29 9 Appendix Table A1. Occupational Classifications Code Title MANAGERIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SPECIALTY OCCUPATIONS Executive, Administrative, and Managerial Occupations: 3 Legislators 4 Chief executives and public administrators 7 Financial managers 8 Human resources and labor relations managers 13 Managers and specialists in marketing, advertising, and public relations 14 Managers in Education and related fields 15 Managers of medicine and health occupations 16 Postmasters and mail superintendents 17 Managers of food-serving and lodging establishments 18 Managers of properties and real estate 19 Funeral directors 21 Managers of service organizations, n.e.c. 22 Managers and administrators, n.e.c. Management Related Occupations: 23 Accountants and auditors 24 Insurance underwriters 25 Other financial specialists 26 Management analysts 27 Personnel, HR, training, and labor relations specialists 28 Purchasing agents and buyers, of farm products 29 Buyers, wholesale and retail trade 33 Purchasing managers, agents and buyers, n.e.c. 34 Business and promotion agents 35 Construction inspectors 36 Inspectors and compliance Administrators, outside construction 37 Management support occupations Professional Specialty Occupations Engineers, Architects, and Surveyors: 43 Architects Engineers: 44 Aerospace engineer 45 Metallurgical and materials engineers, variously phrased 47 Petroleum, mining, and geological engineers 48 Chemical engineers 53 Civil engineers 55 Electrical engineer 56 Industrial engineers 57 Mechanical engineers 59 Not-elsewhere-classified engineers Mathematical and Computer Scientists: 64 Computer systems analysts and computer scientists 65 Operations and systems researchers and analysts 66 Actuaries 67 Statisticians 68 Mathematicians and mathematical scientists Natural Scientists: 69 Physicists and astronomers 73 Chemists 74 Atmospheric and space scientists 75 Geologists 76 Physical scientists, n.e.c. 77 Agricultural and food scientists 78 Biological scientists 30 Category Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Educational Health Governmental Administrative Administrative Administrative Governmental Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Governmental Governmental Administrative R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D Table A1. Occupational Classifications Code Title 79 Foresters and conservation scientists 83 Medical scientists Health Diagnosing Occupations: 84 Physicians 85 Dentists 86 Veterinarians 87 Optometrists 88 Podiatrists 89 Other health and therapy Health Assessment and Treating Occupations: 95 Registered nurses 96 Pharmacists 97 Dietitians and nutritionists Therapists: 98 Respiratory therapists 99 Occupational therapists 103 Physical therapists 104 Speech therapists 105 Therapists, n.e.c. 106 Physicians' assistants Teachers, Postsecondary: 113 Earth, environmental, and marine science instructors 114 Biological science instructors 115 Chemistry instructors 116 Physics instructors 118 Psychology instructors 119 Economics instructors 123 History instructors 125 Sociology instructors 127 Engineering instructors 128 Math instructors 139 Educational instructors 145 Law instructors 147 Theology instructors 149 Home economics instructors 150 Humanities profs/instructors, college, n.e.c. 154 Subject instructors (HS/college) Teachers, Except Postsecondary: 155 Kindergarten and earlier school teachers 156 Primary school teachers 157 Secondary school teachers 158 Special Educational teachers 159 Teachers , n.e.c. 163 Vocational and Educational counselors Librarians, Archivists, and Curators: 164 Librarians 165 Archivists and curators Social Scientists and Urban Planners: 166 Economists, market researchers, and survey researchers 167 Psychologists 168 Sociologists 169 Social scientists, n.e.c. 173 Urban and regional planners Social, Recreation, and Religious Workers: 174 Social workers 175 Recreation workers 176 Clergy and religious workers 31 Category R&D R&D Health Health Health Health Health Health Health Health Health Health Health Health Health Health Health Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational Educational R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D Governmental Governmental Governmental Table A1. Occupational Classifications Code Title Lawyers and Judges: 178 Lawyers 179 Judges Writers, Artists, Entertainers, and Athletes: 183 Writers and authors 184 Technical writers 185 Designers 186 Musician or composer 187 Actors, directors, Producers 188 Art makers: painters, sculptors, craft-artists, and print-makers 189 Photographers 193 Dancers 194 Art/entertainment performers and related 195 Editors and reporters 198 Announcers 199 Athletes, sports instructors, and officials 200 Professionals, n.e.c. TECHNICAL, SALES, AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT OCCUPATIONS Technicians and Related Support Occupations Health Technologists and Technicians: 203 Clinical laboratory technologies and technicians 204 Dental hygienists 205 Health record tech specialists 206 Radiologic tech specialists 207 Licensed practical nurses 208 Health technologists and technicians, n.e.c. Technologists and Technicians, Except Health Engineering and Related Technologists and Technicians: 213 Electrical and electronic (engineering) technicians 214 Engineering technicians, n.e.c. 215 Mechanical engineering technicians 217 Drafters 218 Surveyors, cartographers, mapping scientists and technicians 223 Biological technicians Science Technicians: 224 Chemical technicians 225 Other science technicians Technicians, Except Health, Engineering, and Science: 226 Airplane pilots and navigators 227 Air traffic controllers 228 Broadcast equipment operators 229 Computer software developers 233 Programmers of numerically controlled machine tools 234 Legal assistants, paralegals, legal support, etc. 235 Technicians, n.e.c. Sales Occupations: 243 Supervisors and proprietors of sales jobs Sales Representatives, Finance and Business Services: 253 Insurance sales occupations 254 Real estate sales occupations 255 Financial services sales occupations 256 Advertising and related sales jobs Sales Representatives, Commodities: 258 Sales engineers 274 Salespersons, n.e.c. 275 Retail sales clerks 276 Cashiers 32 Category Administrative Governmental Entertainment R&D R&D Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment Administrative Health Health Health Health Health Health R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D R&D Transportation Transportation Entertainment R&D Production Administrative Administrative Sales Sales Sales Sales Sales Sales Sales Sales Sales Table A1. Occupational Classifications Code Title 277 Door-to-door sales, street sales, and news vendors Sales Related Occupations: 283 Sales demonstrators / promoters / models 290 Sales workers--allocated (1990 internal census) Administrative Support Occupations, Including Clerical Supervisors, Administrative Support Occupations: 303 Administrative supervisors Computer Equipment Operators: 308 Computer and peripheral equipment operators Secretaries, Stenographers, and Typists: 313 Secretaries 314 Stenographers 315 Typists Information Clerks: 316 Interviewers, enumerators, and surveyors 317 Hotel clerks 318 Transportation ticket and reservation agents 319 Receptionists 323 Information clerks, n.e.c. Records Processing Occupations, Except Financial: 326 Correspondence and order clerks 328 Human resources clerks, except payroll and timekeeping 329 Library assistants 335 File clerks 336 Records clerks Financial Records Processing Occupations: 337 Bookkeepers and accounting and auditing clerks 338 Payroll and timekeeping clerks 343 Cost and rate clerks (financial records processing) 344 Billing clerks and related financial records processing Duplicating, Mail, and Other Administrative Machine Operators: 345 Duplication machine operators / Administrative machine operators 346 Mail and paper handlers 347 Administrative machine operators, n.e.c. Communications Equipment Operators: 348 Telephone operators 349 Other telecom operators Mail and Message Distributing Occupations: 354 Postal clerks, excluding mail carriers 355 Mail carriers for postal service 356 Mail clerks, outside of post Administrative 357 Messengers Material Recording, Scheduling, and Distributing Clerks: 359 Dispatchers 361 Inspectors, n.e.c. 364 Shipping and receiving clerks 365 Stock and inventory clerks 366 Meter readers 368 Weighers, measurers, and checkers 373 Material recording, scheduling, Production, planning, and expediting clerks Adjusters and Investigators: 375 Insurance adjusters, examiners, and investigators 376 Customer service reps, investigators and adjusters, except insurance 377 Eligibility clerks for government programs; social welfare 378 Bill and account collectors Miscellaneous Administrative Support Occupations: 379 General Administrative clerks 33 Category Sales Sales Sales Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative R&D Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Governmental Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Transportation Administrative Administrative Administrative Production Administrative Administrative Governmental Administrative Administrative Table A1. Occupational Classifications Code Title 383 Bank tellers 384 Proofreaders 385 Data entry keyers 386 Statistical clerks 387 Teacher's aides 389 Administrative support jobs, n.e.c. 390 Professional, technical, and kindred workers--allocated (1990 internal census) 391 Clerical and kindred workers--allocated (1990 internal census) SERVICE OCCUPATIONS Private Household Occupations: 405 Housekeepers, maids, butlers, stewards, and lodging quarters cleaners 407 Private household cleaners and servants 408 Private household workers--allocated (1990 internal census) Protective Service Occupations Supervisors, Protective Service Occupations: 415 Supervisors of guards Firefighting and Fire Prevention Occupations: 417 Firefighting, prevention, and inspection Police and Detectives: 418 Police, detectives, and private investigators 423 Other law enforcement: sheriffs, bailiffs, correctional institution Administrators Guards: 425 Crossing guards and bridge tenders 426 Guards, watchmen, doorkeepers 427 Protective services, n.e.c. Service Occupations, Except Protective and Household Food Preparation and Service Occupations: 434 Bartenders 435 Waiter/waitress 436 Cooks, variously defined 438 Food counter and fountain workers 439 Kitchen workers 443 Waiter's assistant 444 Misc food prep workers Health Service Occupations: 445 Dental assistants 446 Health aides, except nursing 447 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Cleaning and Building Service Occupations, Except Households: 448 Supervisors of cleaning and building service 453 Janitors 454 Elevator operators 455 Pest control occupations Personal Service Occupations: 456 Supervisors of personal service jobs, n.e.c. 457 Barbers 458 Hairdressers and cosmetologists 459 Recreation facility attendants 461 Guides 462 Ushers 463 Public transportation attendants and inspectors 464 Baggage porters 465 Welfare service aides 468 Child care workers 469 Personal service occupations, n.e.c. 34 Category Administrative Administrative Administrative Administrative Educational Administrative Administrative Administrative Business Services Professional Services Professional Services Governmental Governmental Governmental Governmental Business Services Business Services Business Services Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Health Health Health Business Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Governmental Professional Services Governmental Professional Services Professional Services Table A1. Occupational Classifications Code Title FARMING, FORESTRY, AND FISHING OCCUPATIONS Farm Operators and Managers: 473 Farmers (owners and tenants) 474 Horticultural specialty farmers 475 Farm managers, except for horticultural farms 476 Managers of horticultural specialty farms Other Agricultural and Related Occupations: Farm Occupations, Except Managerial: 479 Farm workers 480 Farm laborers and farm foreman--allocated (1990 internal census) 483 Marine life cultivation workers 484 Nursery farming workers Related Agricultural Occupations: 485 Supervisors of agricultural occupations 486 Gardeners and groundskeepers 487 Animal caretakers except on farms 488 Graders and sorters of agricultural products 489 Inspectors of agricultural products Forestry and Logging Occupations: 496 Timber, logging, and forestry workers Fishers, Hunters, and Trappers: 498 Fishers, hunters, and kindred PRECISION Production, CRAFT, AND REPAIR OCCUPATIONS Mechanics and Repairers: 503 Supervisors of mechanics and repairers Mechanics and Repairers, Except Supervisors Vehicle and Mobile Equipment Mechanics and Repairers: 505 Automobile mechanics 507 Bus, truck, and stationary engine mechanics 508 Aircraft mechanics 509 Small engine repairers 514 Auto body repairers 516 Heavy equipment and farm equipment mechanics 518 Industrial machinery repairers 519 Machinery maintenance occupations Electrical and Electronic Equipment Repairers: 523 Repairers of industrial electrical equipment 525 Repairers of data processing equipment 526 Repairers of household appliances and power tools 527 Telecom and line installers and repairers 533 Repairers of electrical equipment, n.e.c. 534 Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics Miscellaneous Mechanics and Repairers: 535 Precision makers, repairers, and smiths 536 Locksmiths and safe repairers 538 Administrative machine repairers and mechanics 539 Repairers of mechanical controls and valves 543 Elevator installers and repairers 544 Millwrights 549 Mechanics and repairers, n.e.c. Construction Trades Supervisors, Construction Occupations: 558 Supervisors of construction work Construction Trades, Except Supervisors: 563 Masons, tilers, and carpet installers 567 Carpenters 573 Drywall installers 35 Category Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Professional Services Farm Farm Farm Farm Farm Business Services Professional Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Professional Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Professional Services Business Services Business Services Professional Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Business Services Production Production Production Production Table A1. Occupational Classifications Code Title 575 Electricians 577 Electric power installers and repairers 579 Painters, construction and maintenance 583 Paperhangers 584 Plasterers 585 Plumbers, pipe fitters, and steamfitters 588 Concrete and cement workers 589 Glaziers 593 Insulation workers 594 Paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators 595 Roofers and slaters 596 Sheet metal duct installers 597 Structural metal workers 598 Drillers of earth 599 Construction trades, n.e.c. Extractive Occupations: 614 Drillers of oil wells 615 Explosives workers 616 Miners 617 Other mining occupations Precision Production Occupations: 628 Production supervisors or foremen Precision Metal Working Occupations: 634 Tool and die makers and die setters 637 Machinists 643 Boilermakers 644 Precision grinders and filers 645 Patternmakers and model makers 646 Lay-out workers 649 Engravers 653 Tinsmiths, coppersmiths, and sheet metal workers Precision Woodworking Occupations: 657 Cabinetmakers and bench carpenters 658 Furniture and wood finishers 659 Other precision woodworkers Precision Textile, Apparel, and Furnishings Machine Workers: 666 Dressmakers and seamstresses 667 Tailors 668 Upholsterers 669 Shoe repairers 674 Other precision apparel and fabric workers Precision Workers, Assorted Materials: 675 Hand molders and shapers, except jewelers 677 Optical goods workers 678 Dental laboratory and medical appliance technicians 679 Bookbinders 684 Other precision and craft workers Precision Food Production Occupations: 686 Butchers and meat cutters 687 Bakers 688 Batch food makers Precision Inspectors, Testers, and Related Workers: 693 Adjusters and calibrators Plant and System Operators: 694 Water and sewage treatment plant operators 695 Power plant operators 696 Plant and system operators, stationary engineers 36 Category Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Professional Services Production Production Production Health Production Production Professional Services Professional Services Professional Services Production Governmental Production Production Table A1. Occupational Classifications Code Title 699 Other plant and system operators OPERATORS, FABRICATORS, AND LABORERS Machine Operators, Assemblers, and Inspectors Machine Operators and Tenders, Except Precision Metal Working and Plastic Working Machine Operators: 703 Lathe, milling, and turning machine operatives 706 Punching and stamping press operatives 707 Rollers, roll hands, and finishers of metal 708 Drilling and boring machine operators 709 Grinding, abrading, buffing, and polishing workers 713 Forge and hammer operators 717 Fabricating machine operators, n.e.c. Metal and Plastic Processing Machine Operators: 719 Molders, and casting machine operators 723 Metal platers 724 Heat treating equipment operators Woodworking Machine Operators: 726 Wood lathe, routing, and planing machine operators 727 Sawing machine operators and sawyers 728 Shaping and joining machine operator (woodworking) 729 Nail and tacking machine operators (woodworking) 733 Other woodworking machine operators Printing Machine Operators: 734 Printing machine operators, n.e.c. 735 Photoengravers and lithographers 736 Typesetters and compositors Textile, Apparel, and Furnishings Machine Operators: 738 Winding and twisting textile/apparel operatives 739 Knitters, loopers, and toppers textile operatives 743 Textile cutting machine operators 744 Textile sewing machine operators 745 Shoemaking machine operators 747 Pressing machine operators (clothing) 748 Laundry workers 749 Misc. textile machine operators Machine Operators, Assorted Materials: 753 Cementing and gluing machine operators 754 Packers, fillers, and wrappers 755 Extruding and forming machine operators 756 Mixing and blending machine operatives 757 Separating, filtering, and clarifying machine operators 759 Painting machine operators 763 Roasting and baking machine operators (food) 764 Washing, cleaning, and pickling machine operators 765 Paper folding machine operators 766 Furnace, kiln, and oven operators, apart from food 768 Crushing and grinding machine operators 769 Slicing and cutting machine operators 773 Motion picture projectionists 774 Photographic process workers 779 Machine operators, n.e.c. Fabricators, Assemblers, and Hand Working Occupations: 783 Welders and metal cutters 784 Solderers 785 Assemblers of electrical equipment 789 Hand painting, coating, and decorating occupations Production Inspectors, Testers, Samplers, and Weighers: 37 Category Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Professional Services Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Professional Services Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Table A1. Occupational Classifications Code Title 796 Production checkers and inspectors 799 Graders and sorters in manufacturing Transportation and Material Moving Occupations Motor Vehicle Operators: 803 Supervisors of motor vehicle transportation 804 Truck, delivery, and tractor drivers 808 Bus drivers 809 Taxi cab drivers and chauffeurs 813 Parking lot attendants 815 Transport equipment operatives--allocated (1990 internal census) Transportation Occupations, Except Motor Vehicles Rail Transportation Occupations: 823 Railroad conductors and yardmasters 824 Locomotive operators (engineers and firemen) 825 Railroad brake, coupler, and switch operators Water Transportation Occupations: 829 Ship crews and marine engineers 834 Water transport infrastructure tenders and crossing guards Material Moving Equipment Operators: 844 Operating engineers of construction equipment 848 Crane, derrick, winch, and hoist operators 853 Excavating and loading machine operators 859 Misc. material moving occupations Helpers, Construction and Extractive Occupations: 865 Helpers, constructions 866 Helpers, surveyors 869 Construction laborers 874 Production helpers Freight, Stock, and Material Handlers: 875 Garbage and recyclable material collectors 876 Materials movers: stevedores and longshore workers 877 Stock handlers 878 Machine feeders and offbearers 883 Freight, stock, and materials handlers 885 Garage and service station related occupations 887 Vehicle washers and equipment cleaners 888 Packers and packagers by hand 889 Laborers outside construction 890 Laborers, except farm--allocated (1990 internal census) MILITARY OCCUPATIONS 905 Military 38 Category Production Production Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Governmental Transportation Transportation Production Transportation Professional Services Business Services Production Production Production Governmental Working Paper Series A series of research studies on regional economic issues relating to the Seventh Federal Reserve District, and on financial and economic topics. The Urban Density Premium across Establishments R. Jason Faberman and Matthew Freedman WP-13-01 Why Do Borrowers Make Mortgage Refinancing Mistakes? Sumit Agarwal, Richard J. Rosen, and Vincent Yao WP-13-02 Bank Panics, Government Guarantees, and the Long-Run Size of the Financial Sector: Evidence from Free-Banking America Benjamin Chabot and Charles C. Moul WP-13-03 Fiscal Consequences of Paying Interest on Reserves Marco Bassetto and Todd Messer WP-13-04 Properties of the Vacancy Statistic in the Discrete Circle Covering Problem Gadi Barlevy and H. N. Nagaraja WP-13-05 Credit Crunches and Credit Allocation in a Model of Entrepreneurship Marco Bassetto, Marco Cagetti, and Mariacristina De Nardi WP-13-06 Financial Incentives and Educational Investment: The Impact of Performance-Based Scholarships on Student Time Use Lisa Barrow and Cecilia Elena Rouse WP-13-07 The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change Julian di Giovanni, Andrei A. Levchenko, and Jing Zhang WP-13-08 Structural Change in an Open Economy Timothy Uy, Kei-Mu Yi, and Jing Zhang WP-13-09 The Global Labor Market Impact of Emerging Giants: a Quantitative Assessment Andrei A. Levchenko and Jing Zhang WP-13-10 Size-Dependent Regulations, Firm Size Distribution, and Reallocation François Gourio and Nicolas Roys WP-13-11 Modeling the Evolution of Expectations and Uncertainty in General Equilibrium Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi WP-13-12 Rushing into the American Dream? House Prices, the Timing of Homeownership, and the Adjustment of Consumer Credit Sumit Agarwal, Luojia Hu, and Xing Huang WP-13-13 1 Working Paper Series (continued) The Earned Income Tax Credit and Food Consumption Patterns Leslie McGranahan and Diane W. Schanzenbach WP-13-14 Agglomeration in the European automobile supplier industry Thomas Klier and Dan McMillen WP-13-15 Human Capital and Long-Run Labor Income Risk Luca Benzoni and Olena Chyruk WP-13-16 The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti WP-13-17 A Portfolio-Balance Approach to the Nominal Term Structure Thomas B. King WP-13-18 Gross Migration, Housing and Urban Population Dynamics Morris A. Davis, Jonas D.M. Fisher, and Marcelo Veracierto WP-13-19 Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics Jaap H. Abbring, Jeffrey R. Campbell, Jan Tilly, and Nan Yang WP-13-20 Bubbles and Leverage: A Simple and Unified Approach Robert Barsky and Theodore Bogusz WP-13-21 The scarcity value of Treasury collateral: Repo market effects of security-specific supply and demand factors Stefania D'Amico, Roger Fan, and Yuriy Kitsul Gambling for Dollars: Strategic Hedge Fund Manager Investment Dan Bernhardt and Ed Nosal Cash-in-the-Market Pricing in a Model with Money and Over-the-Counter Financial Markets Fabrizio Mattesini and Ed Nosal WP-13-22 WP-13-23 WP-13-24 An Interview with Neil Wallace David Altig and Ed Nosal WP-13-25 Firm Dynamics and the Minimum Wage: A Putty-Clay Approach Daniel Aaronson, Eric French, and Isaac Sorkin WP-13-26 Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program Sumit Agarwal, Gene Amromin, Itzhak Ben-David, Souphala Chomsisengphet, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru WP-13-27 2 Working Paper Series (continued) The Effects of the Massachusetts Health Reform on Financial Distress Bhashkar Mazumder and Sarah Miller WP-14-01 Can Intangible Capital Explain Cyclical Movements in the Labor Wedge? François Gourio and Leena Rudanko WP-14-02 Early Public Banks William Roberds and François R. Velde WP-14-03 Mandatory Disclosure and Financial Contagion Fernando Alvarez and Gadi Barlevy WP-14-04 The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data at ‘Face Value’? Daniel A. Dias, Christine Richmond, and Mark L. J. Wright WP-14-05 Interpreting the Pari Passu Clause in Sovereign Bond Contracts: It’s All Hebrew (and Aramaic) to Me Mark L. J. Wright WP-14-06 AIG in Hindsight Robert McDonald and Anna Paulson WP-14-07 On the Structural Interpretation of the Smets-Wouters “Risk Premium” Shock Jonas D.M. Fisher WP-14-08 Human Capital Risk, Contract Enforcement, and the Macroeconomy Tom Krebs, Moritz Kuhn, and Mark L. J. Wright WP-14-09 Adverse Selection, Risk Sharing and Business Cycles Marcelo Veracierto WP-14-10 Core and ‘Crust’: Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates Andrea Ajello, Luca Benzoni, and Olena Chyruk WP-14-11 The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Implications Andrei A. Levchenko and Jing Zhang WP-14-12 Saving Europe?: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Austerity in Integrated Economies Enrique G. Mendoza, Linda L. Tesar, and Jing Zhang WP-14-13 Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch Francisco Buera and Juan Pablo Nicolini WP-14-14 Quantitative Easing in Joseph’s Egypt with Keynesian Producers Jeffrey R. Campbell WP-14-15 3 Working Paper Series (continued) Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi WP-14-16 Escaping the Great Recession Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi WP-14-17 More on Middlemen: Equilibrium Entry and Efficiency in Intermediated Markets Ed Nosal, Yuet-Yee Wong, and Randall Wright WP-14-18 Preventing Bank Runs David Andolfatto, Ed Nosal, and Bruno Sultanum WP-14-19 The Impact of Chicago’s Small High School Initiative Lisa Barrow, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, and Amy Claessens WP-14-20 Credit Supply and the Housing Boom Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti WP-14-21 The Effect of Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards on Technology Adoption Thomas Klier and Joshua Linn WP-14-22 What Drives Bank Funding Spreads? Thomas B. King and Kurt F. Lewis WP-14-23 Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia Stefania D’Amico and Athanasios Orphanides WP-14-24 Access to Refinancing and Mortgage Interest Rates: HARPing on the Importance of Competition Gene Amromin and Caitlin Kearns WP-14-25 Private Takings Alessandro Marchesiani and Ed Nosal WP-14-26 Momentum Trading, Return Chasing, and Predictable Crashes Benjamin Chabot, Eric Ghysels, and Ravi Jagannathan WP-14-27 Early Life Environment and Racial Inequality in Education and Earnings in the United States Kenneth Y. Chay, Jonathan Guryan, and Bhashkar Mazumder WP-14-28 Poor (Wo)man’s Bootstrap Bo E. Honoré and Luojia Hu WP-15-01 Revisiting the Role of Home Production in Life-Cycle Labor Supply R. Jason Faberman WP-15-02 4 Working Paper Series (continued) Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound Charles Evans, Jonas Fisher, François Gourio, and Spencer Krane Estimating the Intergenerational Elasticity and Rank Association in the US: Overcoming the Current Limitations of Tax Data Bhashkar Mazumder WP-15-03 WP-15-04 External and Public Debt Crises Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright WP-15-05 The Value and Risk of Human Capital Luca Benzoni and Olena Chyruk WP-15-06 Simpler Bootstrap Estimation of the Asymptotic Variance of U-statistic Based Estimators Bo E. Honoré and Luojia Hu WP-15-07 Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America Lee E. Ohanian, Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, and Mark L. J. Wright WP-15-08 Backtesting Systemic Risk Measures During Historical Bank Runs Christian Brownlees, Ben Chabot, Eric Ghysels, and Christopher Kurz WP-15-09 What Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Do? Stefania D’Amico and Thomas B. King WP-15-10 Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-level Analysis François Gourio, Todd Messer, and Michael Siemer WP-16-01 Measuring Interest Rate Risk in the Life Insurance Sector: the U.S. and the U.K. Daniel Hartley, Anna Paulson, and Richard J. Rosen WP-16-02 Allocating Effort and Talent in Professional Labor Markets Gadi Barlevy and Derek Neal WP-16-03 The Life Insurance Industry and Systemic Risk: A Bond Market Perspective Anna Paulson and Richard Rosen WP-16-04 Forecasting Economic Activity with Mixed Frequency Bayesian VARs Scott A. Brave, R. Andrew Butters, and Alejandro Justiniano WP-16-05 Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Emerging Market Economy Tara Iyer WP-16-06 Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes Since the Financial Crisis Jeffrey R. Campbell, Jonas D. M. Fisher, Alejandro Justiniano, and Leonardo Melosi WP-16-07 5 Working Paper Series (continued) Insurance in Human Capital Models with Limited Enforcement Tom Krebs, Moritz Kuhn, and Mark Wright WP-16-08 Accounting for Central Neighborhood Change, 1980-2010 Nathaniel Baum-Snow and Daniel Hartley WP-16-09 The Effect of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions on Financial Wellbeing Luojia Hu, Robert Kaestner, Bhashkar Mazumder, Sarah Miller, and Ashley Wong WP-16-10 The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shock Marco Bassetto, Luca Benzoni, and Trevor Serrao WP-16-11 Tax Credits and the Debt Position of US Households Leslie McGranahan WP-16-12 The Global Diffusion of Ideas Francisco J. Buera and Ezra Oberfield WP-16-13 Signaling Effects of Monetary Policy Leonardo Melosi WP-16-14 Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi WP-16-15 Escaping the Great Recession Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi WP-16-16 The Role of Selective High Schools in Equalizing Educational Outcomes: Heterogeneous Effects by Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status Lisa Barrow, Lauren Sartain, and Marisa de la Torre Monetary Policy and Durable Goods Robert B. Barsky, Christoph E. Boehm, Christopher L. House, and Miles S. Kimball WP-16-17 WP-16-18 Interest Rates or Haircuts? Prices Versus Quantities in the Market for Collateralized Risky Loans Robert Barsky, Theodore Bogusz, and Matthew Easton WP-16-19 Evidence on the within-industry agglomeration of R&D, production, and administrative occupations Benjamin Goldman, Thomas Klier, and Thomas Walstrum WP-16-20 6