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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Bank Capital Regulation With and Without State-Contingent Penalties By: David A. Marshall and Edward S. 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76/ 4<<</ ss1 <;40<<31 ^6;` Wuhdf|/ Zlooldp I1 dqg Pdun Fduh|1 Fuhglw Ulvn Udwlqj V|vwhpv dw Odujh XV Edqnv1 Mrxuqdo ri Edqnlqj dqg Ilqdqfh/ 57/ 5333/ ss1 49:0 5341 ^6<` Zklwh/ Odzuhqfh M1 Wkh V)O Ghedfoh/ R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ Qhz \run/ 4<<41 ^73` Zlooldpvrq/ Vwhskhq G1 Glvfrxqw Zlqgrz Ohqglqj dqg Ghsrvlw Lqvxu0 dqfh/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf G|qdplfv 4 +4<<;,/ ss1 57905:81 76 Panel A Panel D 0.8 Default Prob. Deposits 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 Panel B 0.8 0.35 0.25 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Panel C 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 Panel E 0.8 1 1.4 unreg. bank full info. reg. cap. reg. 1.3 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Panel F 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1 Value Function 2.5 1.5 sigma 0 1.5 1.2 1 2 1 0.5 0 0.2 1.6 0.3 0.15 0.4 0 1 Portfolio Mean Screening Expenditure 0 0.6 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2 1.5 1 psi 0.6 psi Iljxuh 4= Edvholqh sdudphwhul}dwlrq= os ' fD> 4 ' ffD> > ' .D> > ' fD> j ' D> j ' f > @r ' D> @j ' f1 Iru iudqfklvh ydoxh udqjlqj iurp }hur wr 4 +krul}rqwdo d{hv,/ wklv jxuh glvsod|v wkh ghsrvlw ohyhov +Sdqho D,/ vfuhhqlqj h{shqglwxuh +Sdqho E,/ sruwirolr ulvn j +Sdqho F,/ ghidxow suredelolw| +Sdqho G,/ sruwirolr phdq +Sdqho H,/ dqg ydoxh ri uhjxod0 wru*v remhfwlyh ixqfwlrq +Sdqho I, lpsolhg e| wkh iroorzlqj wkuhh uhjxodwru| uhjlphv= Xquhjxodwhg edqn +vrolg olqh,> rswlpdo ixoo0lqirupdwlrq uhjxodwlrq +gdvkhg olqh,> rswlpdo fdslwdo uhjxodwlrq +gdvk0grw olqh,1 4@ 4? 4@ 4? 77 Panel A Panel D 0.8 Default Prob. Deposits 1 0.5 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Panel B 0.8 0.25 0.15 0.1 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Panel C 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 Panel E 0.8 1 1.4 unreg. bank full info. reg. cap. reg. 1.3 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Panel F 0.8 1 0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1 Value Function 2.5 1.5 sigma 0 1.5 1.2 1 2 1 0.5 0 0.2 1.6 0.2 0.05 0.4 0 1 Portfolio Mean Screening Expenditure 0 0.6 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 2 1.5 1 psi 0.6 psi Iljxuh 5= Edvholqh sdudphwhul}dwlrq zlwk srvlwlyh phdq0yduldqfh wudghr1 Wklv jxuh prglhv wkh edvholqh sdudphwhul}dwlrq lq Iljxuh 4 e| vhwwlqj @j ' f 78 Baseline 0.8 Default Prob. Deposits 1 Full information Unregulated market Capital reg only Capital and fines 0.5 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.25 0.2 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.5 1.45 1.4 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 psi 2.5 Value Function 1.5 Sigma 0.4 1.55 psi 1 0.5 0 0.3 psi 1.6 Portfolio Mean Screening Expenditure psi 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 2 1.5 1 0.5 psi 0 0.1 0.2 psi Iljxuh 6= Vxppdu| vwdwlvwlfv iru edvholqh uxq xvlqj julgghg phwkrgv1 Lq0 foxghv vroxwlrq wr wkh rswlpdo vwdwh0frqwlqjhqw sureohp +uhsuhvhqwhg e| wkh vwduv,1 79 Baseline, franchise value = 0.0 1.8 Limited liability constraint 1.6 1.4 1.2 Fine 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Return Iljxuh 7= Rswlpdo qh vfkhgxoh wr wkh vwdwh0frqwlqjhqw sureohp iru wkh edvh0 olqh uxq zlwk ' ff1 7: Baseline, franchise value = 0.15 1.8 Limited liability constraint 1.6 1.4 1.2 Fine 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Return Iljxuh 8= Rswlpdo qh vfkhgxoh wr wkh vwdwh0frqwlqjhqw sureohp iru wkh edvh0 olqh uxq zlwk ' fD1 7; Baseline 0.8 Default Prob. Deposits 1 0.8 0.6 Capital reg only Capital and fines Capital and monotonicity 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.25 0.2 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.5 1.45 1.4 0.5 0 0.1 0.2 psi 2.5 Value Function 1.5 Sigma 0.4 1.55 psi 1 0.5 0 0.3 psi 1.6 Portfolio Mean Screening Expenditure psi 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 2 1.5 1 0.5 psi 0 0.1 0.2 psi Iljxuh 9= Vxppdu| vwdwlvwlfv ri vroxwlrqv wr wkuhh sureohpv= rswlpdo fdslwdo uhjxodwlrq +grwwhg olqhv,/ rswlpdo fdslwdo uhjxodwlrq zlwk qhv +-,/ dqg rswlpdo fdslwdo uhjxodwlrq zlwk qhv xqghu wkh frqvwudlqw wkdw qhw lqfrph eh prqrwrqlfdoo| lqfuhdvlqj lq sruwirolr uhwxuq +vrolg olqhv,1 7< Baseline, monotonicity case, franchise value = 0.05 2 Limited liability constraint Fine 1.5 1 0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2 2.5 3 Return 1 Net return 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 Return Iljxuh := Rswlpdo qh vfkhgxoh zkhq qhv duh uhtxluhg wr vdwlvi| wkh prqrwrqlflw| frqvwudlqw1 Uhvxowv iru edvholqh sduhphwhul}dlwrq zlwk ' ffD 83