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p a p e r
Marriage and Consumption
Insurance: What’s Love Got
To Do With It?
by Gregory D. Hess
FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK
OF
CLEVELAND
Working papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated
to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to
the formal editorial review accorded official Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views
stated herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Working papers are now available electronically through the Cleveland Fed’s site on the World Wide
Web: www.clev.frb.org.
May 2001
Working Paper 01-04
Marriage and Consumption Insurance:
What’s Love Got to Do With It?
by Gregory D. Hess
This paper explores the role of marriage when markets are incomplete so that individuals cannot
diversify their idiosyncratic labor income risk. Ceteris paribus, an individual would prefer to
marry a “ hedge” (i.e. a spouse whose income is negatively correlated with her own) as it raises her
expected utility. However, the existence of love complicates the picture: while marrying a hedge
is important, an individual may not do so if she finds someone with whom she shares a great deal
of love. Is love more important to a lasting marriage than economic compatibility? To answer
this question, I develop a simple model where rational individuals meet, enjoy the economic and
non-pecuniary benefits of marriage (i.e. love), and then must decide whether to remain married or
divorce.
The model predicts that if love is persistent and the resolution of uncertainty to agents’ income is
early, then those who in fact married hedges (and for good reason) are the ones most likely to be
caught short with too little love in order to save a marriage in the event of an adverse shock.
Consequently, under these conditions individuals who are good hedges for one another are more
likely to marry one another, although once married, they will be more likely to divorce.
In contrast, if love is temporary (in the sense of reverting to a common mean) and the resolution of
uncertainty to agents’ income is predominantly later, then those who in fact marry hedges will in
fact be less likely to subsequently divorce. Evidence is provided to distinguish which of these
alternative scenarios is in support of these aspects of the decision to stay married. Additional
hypotheses regarding the effect of differences in the expected means and volatilities of partners’
incomes are also derived from the theory and tested.
Keywords: consumption insurance, marriage
JEL Codes: J12, D1, E21
Greg Hess is at Oberlin College and is a Research Associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of
Cleveland. The author appreciates comments from Adolfo Barajas, Gary Becker, Mark Bils,
Willem Buiter, Ralph Chami, Ben Craig, Dennis Epple, Athanasios Orphanides, Peter Rupert, Andre
Santos, Steve Sheppard, Robert Topel, Cheng Wang, Melvlyn Weeks and seminar participants at
Carnegie Mellon University (GSIA), DePaul University, Oberlin College, the University of Kansas,
the University of Maryland, the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Kansas City, and
conference participants at the 2000 meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics in San Jose,
Costa Rica.
Gregory D. Hess may be contacted at Oberlin College, Department of Economics, Rice Hall, Oberlin
OH 44140 (440) 775-8592, FAX (440) 775-6978, or gregory.hess@oberlin.edu
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ri wkhlu shulrg04 lqfrphv/ / dqg wkh yduldqfh ri wkhlu lqfrphv/ 2 dqg 2 1
+f, Wkh| ghflgh zkhwkhu ru qrw wr pduu|1
51 Shulrg 4
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. 1
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+f, Hdfk lqglylgxdo n @ l> m uhfhlyhv klv ru khu vhfrqg0shulrg lqfrph/ zklfk kdv d
suhvhqw ydoxh dv ri wlph shulrg 4 htxdo wr 3 +4,+| & .2& ,1 Li frxsohv glyrufh/
wkh| sd| wkh xwlolw| frvw !1
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pduulhg lqglylgxdov frqvxph f
2& 1
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ZKLWH
DJHP
DJHI
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HGP
HGI
HGP HGI
DJHP HGP
DJHI HGI
DJHP HGP DJHI HGI
QRNLGV
FDWK
SDUGLY
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s0ydoxh rffxsdwlrq
s0ydoxh rffxsdwlrq Furvv
s0ydoxh DJH ) HG Furvv
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3=4568@
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3=389:M
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3=3858U
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3=3353U
+3=3344,
3=7:<9M
+3=5583,
3=699<
+3=6354,
3=957;M
+3=5:46,
3=3538M
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3=3499
+3=346:,
3=3344M
+3=3338,
3=3<6;@
+3=3697,
3=3359
+3=364<,
3=3373
+3=3748,
453:
3=44<
3=334
3=334
3=346
Ghshqghqw Yduldeoh
+LL,
PJDS
6=3<98@
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5=645<@
+3=:894,
6=334<@
+3=;834,
3=44<3@
+3=36:4,
;=4533
+:=4:56,
;=;8<:
+9=3<88,
43=6989
+45=7:;3,
3=7698
+3=6365,
3=7;:6U
+3=5:87,
3=34;9
+3=3565,
3=7<6;
+3=::9;,
4=:<:6@
+3=:33;,
4=:5:;M
+3=;9:8,
453:
3=4<7
3=334
3=334
3=33<
+LLL,
YJDS
<=8<;3
+9=;99<,
44=39;4
+;=;:4;,
47=83<<
+46=448;,
3=8873
+3=78:3,
;=<366
+74=5;33,
::=8:53
+455=9<;8,
85=;:;7
+79=3336,
3=3358
+4=8;94,
7=5673
+9=4767,
3=4568
+3=436;,
53=7389
+4<=6767,
6=<963
+7=88:;,
8=6984
+7=8566,
453:
3=58;
3=334
3=334
3=996
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3=5<5
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54=79
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3=:93
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3=483
3=549
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4<=77:
Vwg1 Huuru
3=788
7=48:
3=7:3
6=:35
6=363
3=77;
3=76:
3=759
3=7;9
3=68:
3=4;4
9=<36
3=8:<
43|
3=333
6=333
3=333
53=33
4;=333
3=333
3=333
3=333
3=333
3=333
3=336
<=959
9=;79
58|
3=333
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3=333
54=33
4<=333
3=333
3=333
4=333
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3=436
45=577
3=7;4
Shufhqwloh
83|
3=333
43=333
4=333
56=333
54=333
3=333
3=333
4=333
3=333
3=333
3=54;
47=<83
;=499
:8|
4=333
46=333
4=333
58=333
56=333
4=333
4=333
4=333
4=333
3=333
3=655
4;=8;:
4:=;76
<3|
4=333
48=333
4=333
5:=333
58=333
4=333
4=333
4=333
4=333
4=333
3=743
6=<96
5:=;;8
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3=335
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3=338
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4=635
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3=3<5
+3=487,
3=339
+3=467,
3=39<
+3=37:,
3=36:
+3=397,
3=487
+3=47:,
3=368
+3=357,
3=379f
+3=35;,
4=:<;
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3=:84
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3=43;
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3=357
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3=3;8f
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3=348
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3=37;
+3=479,
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3=333
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3=434d
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3=349
+3=353,
3=396d
+3=357,
3=953
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4=457
+4=349,
3=48:
+3=463,
3=368
+3=445,
3=368
+3=367,
3=377
+3=379,
3=436
+3=457,
3=;<4e
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3=437f
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3=:55e
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4665
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3=356
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3=3:5e
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3=348
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3=394e
+3=358,
3=87<
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3=376
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3=489
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3=3:<
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3=366
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3=343
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3=55<f
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3=346
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3=38<e
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3=889
+3=;5:,
3=484
+4=486,
3=549f
+3=44<,
3=3;3
+3=448,
3=366
+3=367,
3=336
+3=386,
3=499
+3=45<,
3=363
+3=353,
3=385e
+3=359,
4=546
+3=<4;,
3=5<6
+4=47<,
3=3<3
+3=46<,
3=3<:
+3=44<,
3=394
+3=36;,
3=336
+3=386,
3=3;;
+3=466,
4=38;d
+3=73;,
3=438f
+3=387,
453:
56;5=5
3=336
4=36:e
+3=73;,
3=438f
+3=387,
453:
56;:=8
3=336
4=365e
+3=73:,
3=437f
+3=387,
453:
56;6=3
3=36:
4=384d
+3=73;,
3=438f
+3=387,
453:
56;3=4
3=355
3=735e
+3=497,
4=39;d
+3=73;,
3=43:e
+3=387,
453:
56::=9
3=368
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76
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Research Department
P.O. Box 6387
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