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Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

WESTERN
ECONOMICDEVELOPMENTS
March 1995
Executive Summary

District Update

Revised data on payroll employment show
a stronger recovery in the District. Total
District employment is now shown to have
increased 2.4 percent in the past year. The
District has the four fastest growing states
in the nation.

Recently revised payroll employment estimates
show that the District's recovery has been stronger than indicated by the previous data. 1 There
are still signs, however, of some moderation in
growth for some of the fastest growing states in
the District.

In California, revised payroll employment
figures indicate that a slow recovery has
been underway for almost 2 years. Employment gains have strengthened in construction, services, and non-aerospace
manufacturing, and the unemployment rate
has fallen almost 2 percentage points since
early 1994.

The revised data indicate that District employment increased about 2-2 percent over the past
year, about 1 percentage point faster than indicated by the previous data. 2 Revisions to the
California data account for much of the change
in District payroll employment growth. Jobs in
California are now estimated to have increased
by about 1 percent in 1994, compared to no gain
prior to the revisions. In the first two months of
1995, payroll employment increased at a 1.7
percent annual rate in California. Severe weather

In the District outside of California, employment in January increased 4-½ percentfrom a year earlier and the unemployment rate was 5.3 percent. Employment
growth remains strongest in the intermountain states, although the pace of growth in
these states has slowed recently.
Loan growth at a sample of District banks
remained strong in the fourth quarter.
Lending at California banks strengthened
across all categories.

'The payroll employment figures have been benchmarked from
March 1993, using information from the Unemployment Insurance system. Note that the data for most of 1994 remains subject
to future benchmark revisions.
2Growth

in 1993 also was revised up by about 1 percentage point,
to I-½ percent.

Nonagricultural Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Jan.711=2991

IOI
199
-

Feb
1992

Jun

Oct

Feb
1993

Jun

Oct

Feb
1994

Jun

Oct

Feb
1995

Western Economic Developments is produced twice quarterly by the Banking and Regional Studies Section of the Economic Research Department. The analyses represent
the views of the staff and do not reflect the official views of the senior bank management of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System. Western
Economic Developments is prepared by the Economic Research Department and distributed by the Public Information Department, (415) 974-2163.

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

conditions in March, however, could have a
temporary slowing effect on economic activity
in the state.
The revisions also raise employment growth
estimates for most other District states.3 For the
District, excluding California, employment increased 4-½ percent over the 12 months ending
in January. The District growth was fueled by
continued expansion in the four fastest growing
states in the nation -- Nevada, Utah, Arizona,
and Idaho. Growth in recent months in these
states remains strong, although the pace of employment gains has slowed in the intermountain
states. Oregon also reports robust growth, posting the 1 t h fastest rate of employment growth
over the past year. In Washington, conditions
remain moderate, but further layoffs at Boeing
weaken the outlook for the state.
The average unemployment rate in the District
outside of California is relatively low, at about
5.3 percent in January; however, over the course
of last year the fast expansion of employment in
these states was marked by equally rapid gains
in the labor force, so this unemployment rate
was little changed relative to a year earlier. In
contrast, California's unemployment rate has
declined almost 2 percentage points in the past
twelve months, to 7.3 percent in February.

MARCH 1995

California's Recession and Recovery
The revised payroll employment figures confirm that California is recovering from its unusually long and severe recession. The data also
verify that the adverse effects of the recession
were concentrated in a few major sectors and in
Southern California. In particular, sharp declines in the aerospace manufacturing industry
and retrenchment of over-built commercial real
estate markets were the primary forces behind
the job losses.
Since April 1993, overall payroll employment
has rebounded in most sectors and the recovery
in Southern California appears to be gathering
momentum. Construction employment has been
strengthening, non-aerospace manufacturing industries are adding jobs, the outlook for income
and spending growth is improving, and Southern
California now reports the fastest employment
growth in the state.
Recession
After peaking in July 1 9 9 , California payroll
employment fell 4.2 percent before bottoming
out in April 1993. During this period about
5 2 , j o b s were lost. Separate civilian employment survey figures show the number of
jobs peaking at about the same time (June 1 9 9 ) ,
declining more sharply through early 1991, and

The main exception is Utah, where the payroll estimates were
marked down a bit in 1993, and left virtually unchanged in 1994.

District Employment by Industry

District Employment by State
Number Employed

Annualized
%Change

%
Change

(thousands)

From

Number Employed

Month
Ago

Year
Ago

(thousands)

Jan-95

Dec-94

Jan-94

Annualized

Jan-95
263

Alaska
i
California

258

12,148
w

1,637

-.6

5.7

Total

.-4.6

Mining

-22.2

4.6

2,751

1.5

1.7

7.3

Transportation

1,67

1,65

1,49

2.3

1.7

1,338

4.4

Trade
F.I.R.E.

4,844

4,857

4,726

1,255

1,258

1,275

-3.1
-3.2

2.5
-1.6

Services
Government

5 , 9 6 5 , 9 4 2

5,713

3.7

4.3

3 , 6 1 3 , 6 1 2

3,568

-0.9

1.2

1,396

884

837

2,351

2,281

2.7

3.3

District

2,551

2,589

2,75

-2.2

2.4

Rest of U.S.

94,738

94,524

91,636

2.8

3.4

115,289

115,113

111,71 I

1.9

3.2

887

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2,356

Seasonally adjusted payroll employment data.

2.4

. - 2 . 2

964

Oregon

U.S.

-2.2

2,793

Washington

Ago

944

Nevada

1,396

2 , 7 5

Year

Ago

2,797

4
6

2,589

From

Manufacturing

535

474
7

2,551

From
Month

5.6

539

476

Construction

Jan-94

%
Change

536

Utah

1.9

1 2 ,H
31

Idaho

8.1

12,195
a

1 , 7 3 1 , 7 3 1

Arizona
i

261

Dec-94

% Change

Seasonally adjusted payroll employment data.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO

MARCH 1995

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

flattening out in 1992 and 1993. By either measure, the downturn was the longest and one of
the deepest in California since World War II.

rate, a gain of 2 1 3 , j o b s . Still, the recovery
has been among the slowest in post-war California history.

Virtually all the jobs losses during California's
recession were in three broad sectors. Of the
major groups, construction employment fell the
fastest between July 1 9 9 a n d April 1993, and
lost almost 1 2 , j o b s . Employment in the
manufacturing sector fell almost as fast and
directly accounted for about two-fifths of the
job losses in the state during the period. Within
manufacturing, the extremely hard-hit aerospace
industry (which comprised 11 percent of manufacturing employment in 1 9 9 ) accounted for
about 3 p e r c e n t of the manufacturing employment decline. Finally, the large trade sector lost
almost 2 , j o b s .

Most of the jobs added since April 1993 have
been in a few key sectors, while some industries
remain weak. Construction employment has risen
the fastest since April 1993, adding a total of
4 4 , j o b s (up 5.3 percent at an annual rate).
The service sector, which posted employment
gains even during the recession, has added
1 7 , j o b s since April 1993, an increase of 2.7
percent at an annual rate.
Among sectors still showing weakness, the trade
sector stopped losing jobs in early 1993, but
employment growth has been flat since then.
The manufacturing sector has continued to lose
jobs since April 1993. The aerospace industry
remains the center of manufacturing weakness,
with employment falling at a 16.7 percent annual rate since April 1993. Employment in other
manufacturing industries has been flat. Among
broad sectors, the largest job loss in 1994 was in
the finance, insurance, and real estate sector.

The job losses during the downturn also were
concentrated geographically. Southern California, where over half of California's jobs are
located, lost about 5 , j o b s between July
1 9 9 a n d April 1993. Los Angeles accounted
for about 85 percent of the decline. Northern
California lost about 7 , j o b s during the
period, while the Central Valley and other areas
actually had net additions to employment.

The recovery has taken hold in Southern California. Since April 1993, employment has increased at a .6 percent annual rate, a gain of
6 8 , j o b s . During 1994, employment in Southern California increased 1 percent. In addition,
as discussed in January's Western Economic
Developments, the unemployment rate in South-

Recovery

Since April 1993, California has been in a slow,
but steady recovery. Through February 1995,
employment has increased at a 1 percent annual

Payroll
(thousands)

California Employment
Seasonally Adjusted

Employment
Seasonally Adjusted

Civilian

Jan.511=991

(thousands)

127

14600

I212134215062

14514413900

1900

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

em California has fallen about 1 V percentage
points since the beginning of 1994 and retail
sales have increased modestly. Employment in
Northern California since April 1993 has been
essentially flat, although the unemployment rate
has fallen about 1 percentage point since the
first quarter of 1994.
Recent data and the sustainability of the recovery
The expected weakness in some areas, like aerospace and the finance, insurance, and real estate
sectors, add uncertainty to the outlook for California. In addition, an expected moderation in
growth of the national economy, raises some
concern about the sustainability of the California recovery. Indeed, based on historical patterns, the slowing in the national economy should
lead to a similar drop off in California.
However, California's unusual experience during this business cycle has left the state "out of
sync" with the national economy. Although slowing demand from the rest of the nation will
restrain growth somewhat, the momentum of
recovery in some sectors and the relative slack
in the economy should allow for moderate acceleration in the California recovery.
After slowing slightly during the second half of
1994, California employment growth since December has accelerated. California employment
picked back up to a 1.7 percent annual rate on
average in January and February. The recent
pace is close to private forecasts of payroll
employment growth for 1995 as a whole.
The recovery in several of the weakest sectors
appears to have taken hold. Construction employment has increased at an 18 percent annual
rate since December 1994. Despite some slowing in building activity at the end of 1994 and in
January 1995 (much of which may be related to
unusually heavy rains), most observers expect
solid growth in residential building permits in
California in 1995 and some reports suggest that
commercial markets may finally be strengthening.

MARCH 1995

While employment in the aerospace industry
has yet to stabilize, other manufacturing industries have started to add jobs. As manufacturers
in other parts of the country run into capacity
constraints, California's manufacturing sector
should benefit from the relative slack in the
state's labor markets. Service sector employment has grown at a 4 percent annual rate since
December 1994 and is likely to remain the
state's largest job creator during 1995.

Financial Conditions
Loans outstanding at all banks in California
grew in the fourth quarter of 1994, reflecting
gains across the board.4 As a result, California
banks ended 1994 with year-over-year gains in
business, real estate, and consumer loans (after
accounting for out-of-state transfers), reversing
the year-over-year losses seen in all three categories at the end of 1993. More recent data for
a sample of large banks in California show
accelerating growth in all three major loan categories in January and February of this year.
Earnings for California banks as a whole are
improving. Fourth-quarter data show increases
in average return on assets and average return on
equity. However, a sample of small banks in
Southern California reported losses in the fourth
quarter that were more severe relative to assets
and equity than in the third quarter. Loan quality
generally is slowly improving, with fourth-quarter declines in large banks' average past due
loan ratios for most major categories. The exceptions were a slight rise in the rate for business loans and a somewhat larger increase for
multifamily residential real estate loans in the
fourth quarter. Average tier 1 and total capital
ratios fell very slightly in the fourth quarter, but
remain strong. The slight decrease in capital
ratios likely was partially due to an increase in
stock buybacks.

4 C o n s u m e r

loans fell as a result of large California banking
organizations transferring some consumer loans to out-of-state
affiliates. Excluding these transfers, consumer loans grew solidly in the fourth quarter.

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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO

MARCH 1995

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Among the other states in the District, Arizona,
Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington reported increases in all three major bank
lending categories in the fourth quarter. Hawaii's,
Idaho's, and Washington's increases in business
loans constituted reversals of declines seen in
the third quarter. Alaska's banks reported the
first increase in real estate lending since the end
of 1993. However, Alaska also reported a fairly
large decline in business loans outstanding, and
Utah reported a decline in real estate lending.
Bank earnings in most other states in the District
were healthy to very strong in the fourth quarter.
However, Arizona banks' fourth quarter aver-

age returns were weak, and Hawaii banks' average returns, while somewhat healthier, also remained weak. Data for a sample of large banks
show that loan quality is improving in some
categories and deteriorating in others in the
District states outside of California. However,
except for business loans in Alaska and Hawaii,
and business and consumer loans in Nevada,
these states' average ratios of past due loans to
assets remain below national averages. Average
tier 1 and total capital ratios for District states
outside of California remain healthy to strong.

District Banking Indicators
Total Loan Volume
Large Commercial Banks
Seasonally Adjusted
Jan.5121=
291

Total Loans

15
1t

- -- ..

Commercial & Industrial

Real Estate
Consumer
l
a

985
+

8
Feb
1993

May

Aug

Nov

Feb
1994

May

Aug

Nov

Feb
1995

Annualized
% Change
From
Month
Ago

%
Change
From
Year

Feb-95

Jan-95

Feb-94

221.4

219.6

26.5

9.9

7.2

46.3

45.4

41.4

25.7

11.8

I 16.3

115.8

4.8

5.8

37.9
T

37.6
.

19.9
2 31.6 .

Ago

Deposits

238.4

24.3

242.7

Large Time

15.1

14.6

14.5

55.3

4.6

Small Time

39.5

39.7

42.2

-7.2

-6.4

MMDAs and Savings

87.2

86.5

96.2

1.4

-9.3

- 9 . - 1 . 8

Figures in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
•

•

• District less California --

California

District Manufacturing and Construction Indicators

Dec-94
Jan-95
Aerospace Employment, 1992=1
6 7 . 6 7 . 9
Electronics Employment, 1 9 9 2 = 1 9 6 . 9
95.5
U.S. Semiconductor Orders, $ Mil.
NIA
3314.1
Non-Residential Awards, 1 9 9 2 = 1 1 3 1 . 5
117.2
Residential Permits, Thousands
22498.2
2428.2
Western Housing Starts, Thousands
21.3
23.7

%
%
Change Change
From
From
Previous
Year
Ago
Jan-94 Month
7 4 . - 1 . 3 -9.5
95.1
1.4
1.9
2 4 7 2 . N I A
13.7
12.2
2426.2
-7.3
23.1
-1.1

NIA
26.8

-7.3
-7.8

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District Resources Indicators

%
%
Change Change
From
From
Previous
Year
Ago
Feb-95
Jan-95
Feb-94 Month
Crop Prices, 1992=1
,
d e e F - n 1o . 2- e 97.7
l
t 91.1
t
a 2.6
C .
1
1992=1
96.2
94.6
9 9 . 1 . 7
-2.9
Cattle Prices, California, $/Cwt.
54.1
1.8
-16.4
55.1
65.9
Lumber Production, Mil. of Board Feet
-.3
1,53.4
1,46.5
NIA
6.9
U.S.. Lumber Price,
S 1 9 9 . 2 = 1 1U 9 7 . 9 .
2 8 . 62 6 7 . 6 2 -4.8
Spot Price of Oil, $/Barrel
18.6
17.9
14.7
3.9
26.5
Rig Count
43.3
52.1
-14.5
5 . 7 -16.8
Mineral Prices, 1 9 9 2 = 1 3 . 3 1 2 . 7
2 6 . - 2 . 8
16.9

MARCH 1995

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

ALASKA, OREGON, AND WASHINGTON
Job growth appears to be slowing in Alaska,
although not by as much as estimated previously. Revised nonfarm payroll employment
figures for the state show an increase of 1.9
percent over the past year, compared to a 3.1
percent gain the previous twelve months. The
state unemployment rate declined about 3/4 percentage point over the most recent twelve months.
Although the payroll report for January showed
a large increase in employment, much of the
large gain in manufacturing employment owed
to a stronger-than-usual rebound from a seasonal low in production in the seafood processing industry.
Oil industry developments continue to dominate
the news in Alaska, where the state has established a commission to study potential oil-related regulatory reform. At the national level, a
bill to eliminate the ban on oil exports from
Alaska has been ratified by a key U.S. Senate
committee.

Oregon is the tenth fastest growing state in the
nation. Nonfarm payroll employment is now
shown to have increased about 4.4 percent over
the past year. The pace of employment growth
over the past twelve months was in excess of 4
percent in construction, manufacturing, trade,
and services. The rapid overall employment

Nonagricultural Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
192=124

1na2J
116

U.S.
11
118
96

Feb

Jun

Oct

1992

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Feb
1993

Jun

Oct

Feb
1994

Jun

Oct

Feb
1995

growth in 1994 led to a substantial tightening in
the labor market, and the Oregon unemployment
rate fell more than 2 percentage points last year.
The rapid economic growth in 1994 helped the
state's fiscal situation. In recent months, the
state government revised upward the projection
of 1993-95 biennium General Fund Revenues,
owing to larger-than-anticipated gains in personal income taxes and corporate income taxes.
Looking ahead, the private sector in Oregon is
expected to recoup some of this revenue windfall, as excess revenue "kicker credits" reduce
tax burdens in the 1996 tax year.
Labor market conditions in Washington improved noticeably in 1994, despite substantial
cutbacks at Boeing Aircraft, the largest manufacturer in the state. Total nonagricultural employment now is shown to have increased 3.3
percent over the past year, about 1 percentage
point faster than published earlier. Rapid employment gains in the trade, services, and transportation and utilities sectors were partly offset
by a drop in employment in the finance, insurance, and real estate sectors. Within manufacturing, the loss of 6 5 j o b s in the aircraft and
parts i n d u s t r y - 5 2 o f which were reported to
be at B o e i n g - o n l y partly offset the addition of
more than 9 o t h e r manufacturing jobs. The
state unemployment rate fell almost 1 percentage point over the course of the year.
Boeing recently announced that its Washington
state payrolls would decline by about 6 5 e m ployees in 1995. This is only a slightly larger
decline than last year, but the news has led to a
reassessment of the outlook for the Washington
economy. With multiplier effects that could more
than double the local impact of the job loss, the
Boeing reductions are expected to hold down
employment growth in Washington at least ½
percentage point, relative to a baseline of unchanged employment at Boeing. Nevertheless,
employment growth in the state appears to have
substantial momentum elsewhere.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO

MARCH 1995

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

CONSTRUCTION

Residential Construction Permits

Non-Residential Construction A wards

9I92=12175

1992=1175

15I25
15I25

I75
I75
WA

525

Feb

May

Aug

Nov

1992

Feb

May

Aug

Nov

1993

Feb

May

Aug

Feb

Nov

May

Aug

Nov

1992

1994

Feb

May

Aug

Nov

1993

Feb

May

Aug

Nov

I994

Data are seasonally adjusted three month moving averages.

Data are seasonaUy adjusted three month moving averages.

EMPLOYMENT
Number Employed
(thousands)
Jan
Dec
Jan
'94
'94
'95
Alaska
Total
Mining

262.5
26.8
o1 . 1 .i l
13.3
13.1
16.8
15.4
23.7
23.6
53.9
54.2
11.9
11.9
5 9 . 5 9 . 4
73.9
73.1

Manufacturing
T.C.P.U.
Trade
F.l.R.E.
Services
Government
Oregon
Total
Mining

%
Change
From
Year
Ago

Annualized
% Change
From
Month
Ago

Number Employed
(thousands)
Jan
Dec
Jan
'94
'94
'95

Washington
257.5
Total
8.1
1.9
Mining
11.2
-11.3
t
c
u- 1 . 7
r
t
s
12.8
19.9
Construction
3.9
Manufacturing
16.5
184.l
1.8
2 3 . 5 . 2
3 . T . C . P . U .
51.l
-6.4
5.5
Trade
11.6
.
2
.
6
F.l.R.E.
Services
56.6
-7.8
4.2
74.7
1 4 . - 1 . 1
Government

2,355.9 2 , 3 5 . 6 2 , 2 8 . 5
3.4n
3.6 o
3.3 C
126.125.8
123.4
34.2
341.9
336.7
119.7
119.3
114.5
583.6
578.9
557.2
124.3
123.2
125.8
613.9
615.7
585.5
443.1
443.9
434.l

%
Change
From
Year
Ago

2.7
-49.6 .
1.9
6.2
4.1
1.2
11.3
-3.5
-2.1

3.3
3
2.1
1.5
4.5
4.7
-1.2
4.9
2.1

Unemployment Rates(%)

1,396.4
1.6

Construction
Manufacturing
T.C.P.U.
e

Annualized
% Change
From
Month
Ago

F.LR.E.

Services
Government

1,395.7
1.6

1,338.1
1.6

65.8
65.9
57.9
225.8
224.5
216.8
7.3 a 7.3
r 67.9
3 5 2 . 3 5 . 3 3 6 . 9
8 8
8 9 . 8 9 . 1
354.7
356.5
336.1
237.2
237.8
232.9

.6
.

4.4
.

-1.8
13.6
7.2
4.2
T .
3 . .
5
7.1
4.5
. - 1 . 3
I.I
-5.9
5.5
- 3 . 1 . 8

Alaska.
Oregon

Jan

Dec

Feb

Jan

'95

'94

7.3
NIA

Washington

NIA

U.S.

5.4

. 7.6
8
5 . 4 . 9
5.5
6 .
5.7

5.4

6
6

1
6.8

6.6

6.7

Unemployment rates are from the household employment survey, all other data are for nonagricultural payroll employment.
All data are seasonally adjusted.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO

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WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

MARCH 1995

ARIZONA, CALIFORNIA, AND HAWAII
Arizona is the third fastest growing state in the
nation. Upward revisions to payroll employment figures show growth of 5. 7 percent over
the past year. January payroll employment was
flat from December. Labor markets continue to
tighten, dropping the unemployment rate to 4.5
percent in February, down 1-V percentage points
in the last year. Growth in nominal retail sales
accelerated in 1994, rising 6.6 percent compared with 5 percent during 1993. Sales of
durable goods were reported to have flattened
recently, however.
While gains in construction employment remain strong, some slowing in the residential
markets is evident. Residential building permit
numbers have been declining for the past six
months and fell below the level of a year earlier
in the three months ending in January. Nonresidential activity remains strong, fueled by
low vacancy rates and continued migration of
businesses to the state. The value of non-residential building awards for the three months
ending in January was almost double the level of
a year earlier.
The recovery in California continues to accelerate. Newly benchmarked payroll employment
figures show that the state has been slowly
adding jobs since April 1993. Seasonal adjust-

Nonagricultural Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Jan 1
92=124

1 2
116

112

HI
96
Feb
1992

Jun

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Oct

Feb
1993

Jun

Oct

Feb
1994

Jun

Oct

Feb
1995

ment difficulties likely exaggerated the swings
in January and February payroll employment;
averaging over the two-month period, employment increased at an annual rate of 1. 7 percent.
Employment growth has been relatively strong
in construction, services, and non-aerospace
manufacturing industries. Consistent with the
ongoing recovery in employment, the unemployment rate fell to 7 .3 percent in February,
down almost 2 percentage points since the beginning of 1994. In addition, business failures
declined during 1994, dropping 15 percent for
the state as a whole and falling 67 percent in Los
Angeles.
Severe flooding in March caused substantial
economic losses in some parts of the California.
Some damage estimates range as high as $2
billion, although transfer payments from other
areas will soften some of the local impact. An
estimated $ 3 m i l l i o n in crop losses were reported, primarily to vegetable crops in the Salinas Valley and tree crops in the Central Valley.

Hawaii's economy continues to strengthen modestly. Payroll job growth remains relatively weak,
but the level of employment has finally topped
year-earlier levels. Sluggish labor markets have
kept the unemployment rate relatively high during the last year. The large trade and services
industries show some strengthening, fueled by
continued recovery in tourism. Visitor counts
should receive a boost in 1995 from continued
recovery in the California economy and the
strength of the Yen against the dollar.
The construction sector shows some signs of
recovery. Residential building permit figures
were strong in 1994, and were almost double last
year's level in the three months ending in January. Signs of recovery in the non-residential
sector are more recent, but the value of nonresidential construction awards finally rose above
the level of a year earlier for the three months
ending in January.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO

MARCH 1995

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

CONSTRUCTION

Non-Residential Construction Awards
1

1 1

Residential Construction Permits

= 2

AZ
15125

15125

175

5
5HI

Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
1992
1993
1994
Data are seasonally adjusted three month moving averages.

May

EMPLOYMENT
Number Employed
(thousands)
Jan
Dec
Jan
'95
'94
'94
Arizona
Total
Mining
Construction

Manufacturing
T.C.P.U.
Trade
F.I.R.E.
Services
Government

T.C.P.U.
Trade
F.I.R.E.
Services
Government

Aug

Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
1992
1993
1994
Data are seasonally adjusted three month moving averages.

Nov

Annualized
% Change
From
Month
Ago

%
Change
From
Year
Ago

Aug

Nov

Annualized
% Change
From
Month
Ago

Number Employed
(thousands)
Jan
Dec
Jan
'95
'94
'94

1,731.I
1,637.2
-.6
12.5
11.7
2 1 .
115.8
11.2
16.7
196.3
185.5
7.6
8 7 . 8 1 . 9
29.6
425.3
3 9 5 . - 4 . 4
112.6
17.7
-1.2
493.8
462.3
-3.1
287.8
291.9
-6.9
Jan
'94

5.7
Total
. 5
Mining
15.9
Construction
6.5
Manufacturing
8.5
T.C.P.U.
7.3
Trade
3.6
F.I.R.E.
6.5
Services
- 2 . G o v e r n m e n t

536.3

538.6

27.8
17.2
41.6
135.2
38.2
164.9
111.4

28.7
3 . - 3 1 . 8
17.3
17.9
-6.7
41.5
41.7
2.9
135.6
1 3 3 . - 3 . 5
3 9 . . 38.2
165.162.4
-.7
112.3
1 1 1 . - 9 . 2

%
Change
From
Year
Ago

-7.3
-3.9
-.2
1.7
. 1
1.5
.4

Feb
'94
Unemployment Rates(%)

1 2 , 2 3 . 4 12,147.9
31.8
31.4
49.1
455.8
1,775.6
1,767.8
612.1
69.8
2,824.7
2,814.3
775.2
773.5
3,617.3
3,591.6
2,13.6
2,13.7

12,83.4
33.7
457.7
1,765.1

8.5
16.4
138.8
5.4

l.2
-5.6
7.1
.6

615.5
2,818.4
82.6
3,54.6
2,85.8

4.6
4.5
2.7
8.9
-.1

-.6
.2
-3.4
3.2
.9

Feb
'95

Jan
'95

Dec
'95

Feb
'94

Arizona
California
Hawaii

4.5
7.3
N/A

5.2
8.2
5.6

6.2
7.7
6
.

6
9

U.S.

5.4

5.7

5.4

Unemployment rates are from the household employment survey, all other data are tor nonagnculturaJ payroll employment.
AU data are seasonally adjusted.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

May

Hawaii

1,73.3
12.7
117.3
197.5
88.9
423.7
111.6
492.5
286.1
Feb
'95

California
Total
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing

---

•

Jan
'94

.
.
.

6.6

5
1
4

.
.

9
1
5.2
6.7

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

MARCH 1995

IDAHO, NEVADA, AND UTAH
Idaho is the fourth fastest growing state in the
nation. Over the last twelve months employment
grew 5.6 percent. The state's unemployment
rate, which was 5.3 percent in January, is below
the national average. However, economic growth
continues to moderate somewhat in Idaho. The
pace of employment growth has slowed since
October, and payroll employment gains were
particularly modest in January.
Consistent with the overall picture of a more
moderate rate of growth in Idaho, Christmas
sales were reported to be slow, and January sales
tax receipts were down slightly. Downsizing by
several major employers also are expected to
dampen Idaho's growth in the coming year;
layoffs have been announced at a few high technology facilities, although expansion at other
firms is likely to offset some of the loss.

Nevada is the fastest growing state in the nation.
Employment growth was a torrid 7 .3 percent
over the twelve months ending in January 1995.
The state's unemployment has declined about 3/
4 percentage point over the past year. Employment was little changed in January, after increasing rapidly in the previous two months.
Nevada is relatively more dependent on construction jobs than the rest of the Twelfth District. Construction jobs account for 7.4 percent

Nonagricultural Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted

of total employment in Nevada, compared with
an average of 4.6 percent for the Twelfth District as a whole. Most analysts have expected
some slowing in the construction sector following the completion of several huge hotel and
casino projects in 1994. However, as the new
hotel and casino capacity is becoming more
fully utilized, the job and income gains are
expected to boost other sectors of the economy.
Both the service and trade sectors, which together employ over 64 percent of the state's
workers, continued to add jobs at better than a 4
percent annual rate in January.

Utah is the second fastest growing state in the
nation. Employment increased at a 5.9 percent
annual rate over the twelve months ending in
January, down slightly from a 6.3 percent
increase for the prior year. Growth in the service
and trade sectors, which account for more than
half of the state's jobs, was especially strong
over the last year. The state's unemployment
rate, at 3.6 percent in January 1995, remains
well below the U.S. average.
Commercial construction activity remains
strong, and although residential construction
has softened considerably from its peak in early
1994, the three-month moving average of new
residential building permits rose in both December and January. The state also received a
boost from the recent decision by Micron Technology to locate a new $1.3 billion semiconductor plant and up to 3 , 5 e m p l o y e e s in Lehi,
Utah.

Jan
11=2991

24
12116

196

Feh
1992

Jun

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Oct

Feb
1993

Jun

Oct

Feb
1994

Jun

Oct

Feb
1995

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

MARCH 1995

CONSTRUCTION

Non-Residential Construction Awards

Residential Construction Permits
1992=13255Feb

1992=132521515Feb

May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May
1992
1993
1994
Data are seasonally adjusted three month moving averages.

Aug

Nov

May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
1992
1993
1994
Data are seasonally adjusted three month moving averages.

May

Aug

Nov

EMPLOYMENT
Number Employed
(thousands)
Jan
Dec
Jan
'95
'94
'94
Idaho
Total
Mining

Construction
Manufacturing
T.C.P.U.
Trade
F.1.R.E.
Services
Government
Nevada
Total
Mining

Construction
Manufacturing
T.C.P.U.
e
F.I.R.E.
Services
Government

Annualized
% Change
From
Month
Ago

%
Change
From
Year
Ago
5.6
22.7
14.5
5.8
6.1
. 3
2.5
6.7
2.5

475.5
2.7
3.8
74.9
22.7
119.6
24.2
16.6
9 4 . 9

474.2
45.l
2.8
2.2
3 . 2 6 . 9
74.3
7.8
22.5
21.4
119.5
I 13.6
24.5
23.6
105.7
99.9
4 . 9
91.7

3.3
-35.4
37.l
10.1
I 1.2
1 .
-13.7
10.7
-1.8

759.7
12.9
55.8
34.8

759.6
12.6
57.4
35.2

78.3
12.4
51.8
31.6

.2
32.6
-28.8
-12.8

7.3
4
7.7
1.1

3 9 . d3 8 . 9
149.4
148.9
34.6
34.8
338.7
337.5
94.5
94.3

36.3
138.2
32.9
315.3
89.8

a 3.1
4.1
-6.7
4.4
2.6

7.4
8.1
5.2
7.4
5.2

Number Employed
(thousands)
Jan
Jan
Dec
'94
'95
'94
Utah
Total
Mining

Construction
Manufacturing
T.C.P.U.
Trade
F.1.R.E.
Services
Government

883.6
886.5
8.3
8.4
5 1 . 5 . 3
12.1
ll9.7
51.l
5.8
212.4
212.4
47.6
47.5
233.5
232.6
162.5
161.9

%
Change
From
Year
Ago

3 7 . 4 . 5 . 9
8.4
-13.4
-1.2
44.2
1 8 . 1 5 . 4
4.1
5.6
I 13.7
48.6
7.3
5.1
199.2
.
6
.
6
5.1
45.3
2.6
2 1 7 . 4 . 7
7.6
16.6
4.5
1.2

Unemployment Rates(%)

Idaho
Nevada
Utah
U.S.

b
'95

Jan
'95

Dec
'94

Feb
'94

Jan
'94

T NIA
5.8
NIA

5.3
5.7
3.6

6.4.
5.9
3.5

5.3
6.5
3.4

5
6.6
3.2

5.7

5.4

6.6

6.7

5.4

Unemployment rates are from the household employment survey, all other data are for nonagricultural payroll employment.
All data are seasonally adjusted.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Annualized
% Change
From
Month
Ago

1995 Issues

Mailing Date

January
March
May
July
August
September
November
December

February 2
March
y aM3
18
July 7
August 17
September 28
November 16
December 21

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
11 Market Street
San Francisco, CA 9 4 1 5

WESTERN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS/ MARCH 1995

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PRESORTED
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