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INCOME
AND
OUTPUT
A Supplement to
the Survey of Current Business
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
OFFICE OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS
A Supplement to
the Survey of Current Business
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, LEWIS L STRAUSS, Secretary
OFFICE OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS, M. JOSEPH MEEHAN, Director
FOREWORD
This volume does more than bring up to date the material contained in the 1954
edition of National Income. Not only have new series and formulations been added, but
the range of subject matter has been broadened to include our work in the field of income
distribution. Here, too, we discuss recent progress on the national income accounts, requisites for further development, and our program foj; the future.
This is our silver anniversary volume, since we undertook our first report in the
national income field in 1932-33 in response to Senate Resolution 220, 72d Congress. It is
in itself a mark of the progress that has been made in the comprehensive reporting on the
national economy within a framework that has contributed much to knowledge and understanding. The use of national income accounts as a measure of America's economic position
and progress is today commonplace. They are accepted as guides to business operations and
Government policy determinations. The language of the accounts through wide use in our
press has become a normal and understandable guide to the public.
This is the fourth volume of a series initiated in 1947, but departs considerably from
the format and content of its predecessors. It was considered neither desirable nor necessary
to repeat in this volume what is still valid in the old. For those who wish the full detail of
the methods and of the underlying concepts, copies of the 1954 edition are available for
purchase or consultation from the usual sources.
Our intent here transcends earlier objectives. While the full range of income and
product data is carried forward and annotated, a major effort has been made to view in
perspective the entire framework of analysis. To this latter end the net qualitative yield of
a quarter of a century is surveyed.
Persons with special interests, as in marketing, income distribution by size and areas,
or overall trend analysis, will find within these covers the material needed for current
appraisals and for the establishment of relationships over time. Those seeking fuller knowledge of sources and methods are here equipped with explanations of new series and all
significant alterations of the old.
For the many with strong preferences for those features of the accounts which would
best repay prompt further development, the sections on the program ahead, and on the
availability of statistical prerequisites, may bring constructive thinking to closer focus. We
hope they will aid in the implementation of a program to meet our basic data needs more
adequately. To further this objective, we have placed considerable stress upon the shortcomings of the basic statistical data and specifications of the requirements for improving
the national income calculations.
The extraordinary range of information which the Office of Business Economics must
utilize regularly in its national income work makes us more than ordinarily conscious of
our dependence upon the large number of cooperating public and private agencies and
individuals that assist us so generously. This blanket expression of appreciation is supplemented by the acknowledgments which are included in this volume.
Director, Office of Business Economics.
NOVEMBER
1958.
Hi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
In presenting the results of our work on the national income
in recent years, OBE brings into focus the achievements of its
National Income Division and the contributions of those other
divisions whose activities aid in preparation of these accounts.
A general acknowledgment to the staff is thus appropriate. But,
as is always the case in bringing efforts to fruition in the form of
a book—which must derive from inspiration as well as from
workmanship—the responsibility for this volume fell largely upon
certain individuals to whom special thanks are due.
In addition to the principal authors listed on the title page,
Charles F. Schwartz and George Jaszi, the contributors to the
various parts and the particularized knowledge which they
brought to bear are here recognized with appreciation. Lawrence
Grose supervised most of the statistical work underlying the revision and expansion of series on the product side of the accounts.
Harlow D. Osborne was in charge of the property income estimates
and contributed much to Chapters 4, 5, and 6, concerned with the
development of the official income and product work. Selma F.
Goldsmith had responsibility for most of the income series and
drafted Chapter 3 analyzing the distribution of family incomes by
size. George M. Cobren supervised the preparation of the government accounts and drafted part of Chapter 8, on methodology.
The laborious and detailed work that went into the approximately 100 tables in the Statistical Section, involving both updating the existing accounts and development of new avenues of
information, was shared by numerous individuals. Those principally concerned are listed here alphabetically with their special
areas of competence:
Lillian P. Barnes—State and local government expenditures and
receipts; Edward O. Bassett—consumer commodities, involving
in particular the major task of incorporating data from the 1954
industrial censuses into the commodity flow estimates; Jacquelin
Bauman—corporate profits; Carolyn G. Bernhard—consumer
services; F. Beatrice Coleman—monthly personal income; Nancy
F. Culbertson—foreign transactions; Jeannette M. Fitzwilliams—
business and professional incomes; John A. Gorman—property in-
comes; Maurice Liebenberg—change in business inventories ai
corporate profits; Joseph Rosen thai—Federal Government e
penditures and receipts; Mabel A. Smith—quarterly consum>
expenditures; Robert C. Wasson—producers' durable equipmei
and capital consumption allowances; and Marilyn J. Young—en
ployee compensation and monthly personal income.
Loughlin F. McHugh, Chief of the National Economics Divi
sion, drafted Chapter 1 on economic growth and progress. Rober
E. Graham, Jr., who is in charge of OBE's regional income work
drafted Chapter 2. The graphic presentations in the volume were
executed by Anna M. Guindon and John A. Miskell.
To those portions of the volume relating to consumption and
investment OBE's Business Structure Division, Lawrence Bridge,
Chief, made valuable contributions. A similar role was performed
by the Balance of Payments Division, Walther Lederer, Chief, with
respect to international transactions.
Certain of the income and product series are prepared by
agencies other than the Office of Business Economics: Farm income by the Agricultural Economics Division of the Department
of Agriculture; direct estimates of personal saving by the Securities
and Exchange Commission; and new construction activity by the
Construction Industry Division, Business and Defense Services
Administration, U. S. Department of Commerce, in cooperation
with the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor,
Also to be noted is the cooperation of the Securities and Exchange
Commission with the Office of Business Economics in the collection
of the underlying plant and equipment investment data.
The statistics rest in a larger sense upon the work of the numer~uus Government and private agencies which provide the primary
source data needed to construct the national income and product
accounts. The cooperation of all these agencies is gratefully
acknowledged.
The progress recorded has been continuously aided by the
Bureau of the Budget, not only by its direct support, but by its
comprehensive recognition of our needs, which have been considered regularly in the development of the Government's statistical program.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword
Acknowledgments
The Economy Viewed Through the National Income Accounts
Chapter 7. Economic Growth and Progress
2. Expansion of Regional Markets
3. Family Income and Buying Power
27
40
Development of the National Income Measures
Chapter 4. Progress in Past Quarter Century
5. What's New in the Present Volume
6. Directions of Future Research
47
50
62
1
Data Sources and Procedures
Chapter 7. Summary Evaluation of the Postwar Estimates
8. How the Estimates Were Made
Strengthening the Gross National Product Measure
Developments in the Estimation of National Income
Measurement of Quarterly and Monthly Movements
Recommendations for Improvement of Primary Source Data
70
73
74
86
95
102
Statistical Section
List of Tables
Table Cross References: 1954 National Income Supplement and Present Volume
Summary Data for 1957
National Income and Product Tables
I. Gross National Product and National Income
II. Personal Income and Outlay
III. Government Receipts and Expenditures
IV. Foreign Transactions
V. Saving and Investment
VI. Income and Employment by Industry
VII. Supplementary Tables
109
112
114
117
117
143
163
181
187
199
219
Index
232
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE
NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
1. Economic Growth
and Progress
Growth and progress have constituted
the outstanding feature of the American
economy in the postwar period. The physical volume of total output in 1957 was
more than two-fifths above that of 10 years
earlier; on a per capita basis, output was
up more than one-fifth.
The postwar economic expansion has
been a continuation of the longer-term
course of developments in this country. The
salient facts of cyclical fluctuations and
basic growth are evident from Figure 1,
which traces the historical record of national output since 1909.
While growth in the past decade has not
been a steady process, the postwar setbacks
to business have been mild. With a concatenation of forceful influences—some temporary and some of a longer-term
character—conducive to expansion, prosperous conditions have prevailed through-
out most of the past decade. The standard
of living has improved substantially.
Postwar developments have reflected
primarily continued operation of the same
basic forces that have characterized our
economic life in the past. However, new
factors have also been at work. Government has played an increasing role, in the
main to meet the defense requirements of
the cold war but also to discharge added
responsibilities in the civilian sphere
through a broad range of social and economic programs.
Another set of factors influencing the
postwar scene was the abnormality of demand and supply conditions immediately
after the war. On the one hand, there was
a translation into effective demand of consumption and investment that had been
postponed during World War II and the
1930's. On the other, capacity to produce
Economic Growth Characterized Postwar Period
civilian goods was limited pending the completion of economic reconversion. Because
of these circumstances, the rate of economic advance was above average in the
first half of the decade.
In these years, technological progress
that had been latent during the depression
and unusually rapid under the exigencies
of war, became embodied in civilian production on a large scale. However, continuous improvements in the techniques
and organization of production were an
outstanding feature of the entire postwar
period, and were both a cause and an effect
of the generally high rate of business investment.
It seems appropriate at this point to
review our progress—to establish its dimensions and characteristics, and to assay our
current status not only in the light of the
more recent past but in broader historical
perspective.
Fig. 1
UTILITY OF INCOME MEASURES
I960
Central focus is provided by the comprehensive and detailed statistics embodied
in the national income and product measures. These furnish at once a convenient
summary of recent movements in aggregate
income and output and a vast array of supporting information necessary for adequate
appraisal of economic developments. They
encompass within a uniform framework
the record of several decades so that current trends can be placed against the background of the past.
Size, composition, and use of the Nation's output, the industrial structure in
which it is produced, and the distribution
of the corresponding income flows—geographically and among the Nation's families—all are encompassed in the guides
provided by national income measurements.
The present volume incorporates improvements of these estimates stemming
from a major statistical review occasioned
by the availability of additional primary
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
data. Also, the estimates have been expanded to include new types of measurements which will give a sharper focus to the
view of the economy provided by national
income statistics.
In this chapter, we analyze some key features of the postwar economic record with
the aid of this information. Attention is
directed to the following major points:
1. Postwar output expansion to its present dimensions;
2. Changing market demand patterns;
3. Structural aspects of industrial activity and purchasing power;
4. Cyclical forces in the postwar economy.
Regional developments and shifts in the
size distribution of consumer incomes and
buying power are discussed in the two succeeding chapters.
EXPANSION OF THE POSTWAR
ECONOMY
Gross national product in 1957 was
valued at $440 billion, as compared with
$234 billion 10 years earlier. Over this period, prices rose 30 percent. Much of the
advance reflected the aftermath of World
War II, and another spurt came with the
Korean conflict, but pressures on the price
level were characteristic of the entire period. After adjustment for the price factor,
aggregate output expanded, as already indicated, by more than two-fifths over the
decade.
This expansion was unusually rapid but
a note of caution is necessary in appraising
the postwar record for its more enduring
aspects. A decade's experience is generally
not sufficient to indicate a long-term trend,
especially when developments are as influenced by temporary factors as they were
in the period under review.
TEMPORARY POSTWAR FACTORS
The decade started from a relatively low
base. Investment had lagged in the 1930's;
and during the war the stock of capital
available for peacetime use had been depleted by heavy wear-and-tear and by the
need to channel resources into the production of facilities and munitions required
directly for the war effort. Moreover, employment and real output immediately
after the war were affected by the technical and organizational bottlenecks associated with the transition to peacetime
production.
Productive capacity was thus capable of
very rapid expansion from the early postwar base. Demand factors were also conducive to a swift rise of output. Consumers had had to defer demand on a large
scale during the war, and correspondingly
had accumulated financial resources which
greatly improved their liquidity positions.
Backlog demands made themselves felt extensively in consumer markets once wartime restrictions had been removed.
Another factor affecting the consumer
market was rapid population growth. Population had not sustained its earlier expansion during the 1930's, when the increase
was roughly half that of the preceding decade. The birthrate began to rise during
the war and this rise was further accentuated after the termination of hostilities.
Similarly, the rate of new family formation
was particularly high during the early
postwar period. These demographic developments reinforced the buoyancy of consumer demand.
Incentives to invest were also powerful.
Against the background of a receptive consumer market, the business community was
eager to make up for capital depletion in
the prior span of years, to incorporate in
productive facilities past advances in technology, and to lay the basis for further expansion on a broad scale. As in the case of
consumers, liquid resources accumulated
during the war helped to finance postwar
expenditures. After-tax profits, which had
been restrained during the war, assumed
a more normal relationship to sales as
taxes were lowered and other wartime controls removed.
Foreign markets also had an influence
on United States production that was special to this period. Some of our customers
abroad were in a backlog-demand and liquid-asset position analogous to that of domestic buyer groups. Other foreign countries, whose productive operations had
been seriously damaged and disorganized
by the war, needed to supplement their
current output, both in order to maintain
minimum living standards and to initiate
programs designed to rebuild their capital
facilities, Crop failures further added to
foreign requirements in the short run.
With the U. S. Government financing
these requirements on a large scale, the demand for our exports soon rose to a postwar peak not approached in earlier or later
peacetime years.
In gauging our postwar expansion, it is
obviously necessary to take these extraordinary factors into account. In combination,
they resulted in an abnormally low early
postwar production base and in an exceptionally rapid economic expansion over the
next few years. If appropriate allowance
for these developments is made, the postwar achievement is seen to be broadly in
line with the record of the past half century, as depicted in Figure 1.
LONG-TERM GROWTH
The salient features of this long-term
record may be summarized as follows. The
$440 billion of gross national output in
1957 compares with an aggregate of $196
billion at the end of the 1920's—the last
prewar period of generally prosperous conditions—and with the $112 billion in 1909,
these earlier figures also being stated in
1957 prices. Thus, total real output has
quadrupled over the last 50 years. This
rise represents an average annual growth
of about 3 percent—a rate which held approximately both in the 1909-29 period
and in the subsequent 3-decade interval.
With population doubling, per capita
output in real terms in 1957 was twice that
of 1909..
In a basic sense, the increase in real output was even more pronounced. The available statistical techniques make only partial allowance for changes in the quality—
as distinguished from the quantity—of real
output. Inasmuch as improvements in
product quality have constituted a major
avenue of economic progress, the quantitative measures that can be calculated do not
reflect the full extent of our economic
growth.
FACTORS IN GROWTH
The increase in the number of manhours worked—an average of about 1 percent per year since 1909—has been a clearcut factor in the long-term growth of real
output. Employment, it may be noted, expanded substantially more over this period—IJ/2 percent per year. But the average length of the workweek declined
sharply, as employees and entrepreneurs
chose to take some of the improvement in
Fig. 2
Postwar Shifts in
Consumer Expenditures
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
their living standards in the form of shorter
working hours.
All of the other factors that—in addition
to man-hours worked—have contributed
to the growth of real output are summed
up in a conventional statistical calculation—"output per man-hour worked."
This measure has increased at an average
annual rate of about 2 percent over the
last half century, thus accounting for the
larger part of real output expansion.
Most of this gain has come from technological and managerial progress, a high
rate of capital formation including the development of natural resources, and constant advances in the education and skills
of the working population. Shifting of the
work force into activities in which productivity is relatively high has also contributed.
So have the economies of large-scale production and increased division of labor associated with the growth of population and
of the market economy.
It is not possible to quantify in a comprehensive manner these manifold factors
which have contributed to economic
growth. However, significant measures are
available of one of them—the stock of tangible capital assets used in the Nation's
productive establishments. These show a
striking secular growth in the amount of
plant and equipment used per unit of labor
engaged in production, and corroborate the
view that this growth is one of the major
factors explaining the rise in the productivity of American business.
A study of manufacturing recently completed by the Office of Business Economics,
the results of which are reproduced in
the Statistical Section of this report, is of
special interest in this connection. This
study developed for a span of 30 years
series for manufacturing establishments on
private investment in structures and equipment, on the depreciation of these two
forms of fixed capital on alternative valuation bases, and on net capital formation in
the form of both fixed capital and inventories. Time series on the total volume of
the various forms of manufacturing capital
were also provided; and these were compared with measures of man-hours worked
and of manufacturing output, to examine
the interaction of these key variables.
From the standpoint of the present discussion, the most important facts brought
out by this study are those relating to the
relative use of labor and capital in manufacturing. Over the last 30 years, the physical amount of capital applied in manufacturing production virtually doubled,
whereas the number of man-hours worked
increased by two-fifths. (See Figure 27 in
Chapter 5.) In other words, over this
period the amount of capital per man-hour
increased more than one-third. This increased application of capital of improved
efficiency undoubtedly has been a big fac
tor in the growth of manufacturing production, which in 1957 had risen to 2J/i
times its 1929 volume.
The fact that the expansion of output in
manufacturing significantly outstripped
that in either labor or capital input underscores the importance of the other factors,
noted above, making for production
growth—factors which cannot be quantified.
MARKET DEMAND
PATTERNS
Ours is a market economy. Basic to its
organization is a reliance on countless
transactions among a multiplicity of independent economic units to produce and
distribute the Nation's output. Even Government, which has come to play such a
vital role, works its economic influence by
entering the market and by modifying,
rather than replacing, market forces. To
understand the functioning of the economy,
it is necessary to reduce the voluminous detail of business activity to manageable proportions. National income statistics perform this essential task—by delineating the
broad markets for national output and the
significant types of product and income
flows that picture their dimensions and
behavior.
We shall make a brief survey of each of
these markets in the postwar period. Attention will be drawn to the major forces
that affected their behavior, as well as to
new structural features.
Later in this chapter, it will be shown
how the changing patterns of market demand affected the industrial structure of
the economy, and how the various markets
interacted in the cyclical swings of postwar
business.
Apart from its contribution to an understanding of the overall economy, study of
these broad national markets is useful as a
background for more special types of market research focusing on the vast amount
of income and expenditure detail reported
in the Statistical Section of this volume.
Consumer Buying and Income
A major element of strength in the postwar economy was provided by consumer
demand for goods and services. The basic
support for this demand stemmed from the
dynamic elements in the economy which
produced a generally high and expanding
flow of income to individuals.
Personal income—which measures this
flow on a before-tax basis—totaled $348
billion in 1957 as compared with $192 bil-
lion 10 years earlier. This expansion of
four-fifths was similar to that in the current-dollar value of gross national product.
Personal income consists in the main of
individuals' earnings from current production. A significant additional part is disbursed by government in the form of social
security benefits and other transfer payments; these are partly offset by the contributions made by individuals to the financing of the government-administered
social insurance programs.
These government payments and socialsecurity deductions made a sizable addition, on balance, to the current purchasing power of consumers in the postwar period. This was more than offset, however,
by higher taxes. Income and other tax payments made by individuals to the Federal,
State, and local governments in 1957 came
to nearly $43 billion, or 1 2 ^ percent of total personal income. This tax ratio varied
between 1 1 ^ percent and 121^ percent
from 1951 to 1957, and for the earlier
postwar years averaged somewhat lower.
In the prewar period, personal taxes had
absorbed about 3 percent of personal
income.
With the proportion of income taken by
taxes not varying substantially over most
of the postwar period, the course of income
after taxes paralleled generally that of total personal income. The 1947-57 expansion in disposable personal income likewise approximated four-fifths in dollar
terms, and amounted to almost 50 percent
on a real basis—that is, after allowance for
the 10-year increase in consumer prices.
SPENDING AND INCOME
After the end of the war, individuals
stepped up their buying relative to income
in the attempt to fill backlog demands.
These were made effective by a greatly improved financial position reflecting both
accumulated liquid assets and lowered
debts. Consumer expenditures amounted
to 97 percent of disposable personal income in 1947—an exceptionally high ratio
which doubtless meant that an unusual
number of families drew on their liquid
assets to supplement current income.
The spending-income ratio, however,
was soon reduced as the special buying
needs were met. It averaged 9 4 ^ percent
in the 1948-50 period and 92/ 2 percent
from 1951 to 1957. In none of the 7 years
of the latter span did the ratio differ from
the average by as much as one percentage
point.
The ratio of consumer expenditures to
disposable income was thus relatively stable during most of the postwar period—
a fact supporting the view that income was
by far the principal determinant of consumption. This broad generalization in no
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
way minimizes the role of other factors influencing consumer spending, such as the
availability and use of consumer credit.
They were manifested most clearly in
quarterly variations in the income-consumption ratio; their influence in the shaping of short-term business fluctuations will
become apparent from the subsequent discussion of postwar business cycles.
Another point may be noted. The comparative stability found in the consumption-income ratio was not displayed by
the saving-income ratio; its relative fluctuations were wide even on an annual
basis. Since personal saving is the difference between much larger income and
consumption totals, movements in these
totals having only slight effect on the consumption-income ratio resulted in much
sharper relative changes in saving and in
the saving-income ratio.
CONSUMER PURCHASING AND GNP
The consumer market throughout the
postwar period absorbed around twothirds of total gross national product. This
share was lower than that which prevailed
in prosperous prewar years, when threefourths of total output flowed through
consumer channels.
This fundamental change reflected the
expansion in the role of Government resulting primarily from the heightened requirements of national defense, although
an increase in civilian-type services rendered by Government was involved also.
This shift to Government in the use of current output was accomplished through a
considerable step-up in the rates of taxation. The ratio of disposable personal income to GNP was thereby lowered; and,
in turn, there was a corresponding reduction in the ratio of consumption to GNP
as individuals in the past decade spent and
saved roughly the same proportions of
their after-tax incomes as they did in the
prewar era.
The reduction in the ratio of personal
consumption to production has been accompanied by a large expansion in the
latter, and the absolute volume of real consumption is currently far above prewar
levels. Compared with the late 1920's, it
is more than twice as high in the aggregate
and 50 percent greater on a per capita
basis.
SHIFT IN PATTERNS
The cross-currents in consumer markets
were many and varied in the postwar period. Out of the myriad developments,
however, certain broad patterns emerge.
Apart from the fact that they depict a significant aspect of the postwar economy,
knowledge of them may contribute background perspective for studies utilizing the
individual product detail.
Figure 2 highlights the main facts which
must be interpreted. It shows that the
goods-services distribution of consumer expenditures in 1947 differed quite significantly from that for 1929 or 1957. The
services share of total consumption in 1947
was below that of either terminal year; conversely, the share of nondurable goods in
1947 was relatively high—markedly above
1929 or 1957. The proportion of expenditures going for durable goods in 1947 fell
between the terminal-year ratios, and
thereby was not inconsistent with an apparent long-term tendency for such expenditures to absorb a rising share of the
total consumer market.
The divergent movements in the shares
of services and nondurable goods, it may
be added, proceeded more or less steadily
on an annual basis throughout the decade,
and involved strikingly different percentage changes in these categories of expenditures. From 1947 to 1957, total outlays by
consumers for services advanced 107 percent; those for nondurable goods, 48 percent. These compare with increases of 72
percent in total consumption expenditures
and 79 percent in disposable personal income.
These postwar shifts in the goods-services
composition of the consumer market can
be viewed broadly in one of two ways. On
the one hand, they may represent basic
tendencies to which trend significance
should be accorded, with the changes since
1947 representing a break with previously
established patterns. On the other hand,
the early postwar distribution of consumer
spending may have been shaped in considerable degree by temporary influences, in
which case the observed 1947-57 shifts,
particularly of services and nondurable
goods, would be viewed largely as movements back toward the more basic relationships depicted by the prewar distribution.
The latter view appears valid. The postwar record, it is believed, does not warrant
the assumption that over the long run the
trends in spending for services and for nondurable goods are markedly different, or
that these broad groups of outlays are substantially independent of changes in disposable income. Supply and price conditions in the consumer market of 1947 were
distorted not only by special aftermath-ofwar circumstances, but also by carryover
effects of the war and depression. In large
degree, developments in the ensuing decade
reflected a correction of these dislocations.
PRICE MOVEMENTS VARY
In an evaluation of the changes in the
goods-services distribution of consumer expenditures over the past decade, it should
first be noted that they mainly reflected
differential price movements rather than
fundamental alterations of the consumption pattern in real terms. As Table 1
shows, the 1947 distribution appears much
less out of line with 1929 and 1957 when
the comparison is based on expenditure
data adjusted for changes in prices. Relative to 1929 and 1957, the 1947 share of
services is higher in the constant-dollar distribution than it is in the current-dollar
figures, and the share of nondurable goods
is correspondingly reduced. Some reduction is also apparent in the 1947 ratio of
durables to total real spending, indicating
that prices of such goods in that year were
also relatively high.
Prices of commodities dropped more
Fig. 3
Expanded Role of
Government Mainly in
National Defense
than those of services in the early 1930's
and rose much more from then until shortly
after the war, at which time they were substantially higher, relative to 1929, than
service prices. The gap between service and
commodity prices narrowed substantially
in the past decade. As shown by the table,
prices of services moved up 40 percent, or
more than double the increase for commodities. Despite these changes, the composite implicit price index for services in
1957 was still up less from 1929 than commodities—60 percent as compared with 77
percent.
The steep advance in the dollar value of
service expenditures from 1947 to 1957,
and the lesser rise of commodities (especially of nondurables), thus reflected primarily a catching-up of the prices of
services with those of commodities. This
process was fairly pervasive among the
major types of expenditures, but develop-
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
ments relating to housing, food, and clothing had a large weight in determining the
broad picture of price and volume changes
in the consumer market.
MORE GOES FOR HOUSING
Rental rates, which during the 1930's
had declined more and recovered less than
other prices, were held in check by war
and early postwar controls. They advanced
at a faster-than-average rate after the war,
but in 1957 were relatively quite low in
comparison with 1929. It is for this reason
that outlays for housing in 1957—covering
both cash rents and the rental value of
owner-occupied dwellings—still comprised
a significantly lower proportion of total
current-dollar expenditures than in 1929,
although the proportion was up substantially from the end of the war.
Measured in constant dollars, the 1957
share of housing in total consumption was
above 1929, as well as 1947. This fact is
attributable not only to the large volume
of new dwelling units that were added to
the housing stock in the postwar period,
but also to an improvement in average
quality of the units.
This improvement reflected an upgrading that accompanied the pronounced
shift from rented to owned quarters. The
long-term trend to home ownership in this
country had been interrupted first during
the depression and then by the wartime
restrictions on residential construction.
The trend was resumed in the postwar upsurge of residential building and was encouraged by unusually favorable terms of
mortgage financing. By 1957, about 60
percent of all nonfarm residences were
owner-occupied, compared with 40 percent in 1940.
It may be added that if housing is excluded from service expenditures the longrun relationship of services to total consumption is changed in both current and
constant dollars. In current dollars, exclusion of housing largely eliminates the
decline in the relative importance of services from 1929 to 1957. Over that period,
the real volume of services other than
housing declined appreciably—from 28
percent to 25 percent.
third compares with one-fourth for 1929.
This expansion reflected relatively large
increases in both food prices and the real
volume of food consumption. Largely because of the extraordinary demand for
food resulting from the deterioration of
agricultural production in other parts of
the world, food prices rose sharply after
wartime controls were lifted in the fall of
1946. With the improvement in world food
conditions and with other goods in relatively more abundant supply, food prices
advanced at a below-average pace from
1947 to 1957. In the latter year, food purchases as a proportion of total consumption—in both current and constant dollars—were not substantially out of line
with relationships prevailing in prosperous
prewar years.
The fact that the current-dollar ratio
for food was somewhat higher in 1957
than in 1929 is largely attributable to the
differing status of alcoholic beverages in
the two periods. It is also to be noted that,
apart from these beverages, maintenance
of the food share of total consumption
reflected in part the better processing and
packaging which were introduced in the
postwar years to attract the demands of a
consumer market characterized by rising
real incomes.
CLOTHING SHARE LOWER
Demand for apparel was strong in the
early postwar period, and clothing prices
moved up swiftly after the removal of
price controls. Compared with 1929, prices
of clothing and shoes in 1947 were up most
among the major categories of consumer expenditure. As a proportion of total
consumption, apparel purchases in 1947
were only slightly below 1929 in current
dollars, but were off substantially in real
terms.
Throughout the subsequent decade, the
consumer continued—in extension of an
apparent long-term tendency—to use less
The Role of Government
Government has provided a large and
somewhat irregular market for the Nation's output in the postwar period. Total
purchases of goods and services by Federal,
State, and local governments ranged from
a low of 12 percent of GNP in 1947 to a
high of 23 percent in 1953. Recently, about
20 percent of total output was bought by
government.
Changes in the rate of government
spending have tended to be concentrated
in relatively brief periods. Much of the
upward movement to the 1953 high
occurred during 1951 and 1952, and the
subsequent downward adjustment was accomplished by 1955.
The relative rise in public purchases as
compared with the prewar period has been
substantial, and has in the main reflected
the requirements of national defense. Government purchases for civilian functions
have expanded only moderately in relation
to total output. (See Figure 3.) Changes in
the defense program have been the main
source also of the postwar fluctuations of
government spending.
IMPACT OF DEFENSE
National defense purchases—$44 billion
in 1957—consist mainly of expenditures for
the military functions of the Defense Department. Also included are goods destined
for military assistance to foreign countries,
outlays for atomic energy development, and
Table 1.—Percent Distributions of Consumer Expenditures by Major Groups, in Current
and Constant Dollars
Distribution based on
current dollars
FOOD SHARE READJUSTED
The large food category accounts for
one-fourth of ,total consumer expenditures
and for more than one-half of the outlays
for nondurable goods. As may be seen
from the table, changes in the relative importance of these outlays—both before and
after 1947—were dominated by the food
component.
Purchases of food accounted for an extraordinarily high share of the total consumer dollar in 1947; the ratio of one-
of his consumption dollar for clothing. The
share of total real consumption going for
apparel declined from 10 percent in 1947
to Sy2 percent in 1957. The drop on a
current-dollar basis was even larger because of the fact, just noted, that clothing
prices were exceptionally high in the early
postwar period.
Total goods and services
Distribution based on
constant (1957) dollars
1929
1947
1957
1929
1947
1957
Implicit price deflators
(1957=100)
1929
1947
1957
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
58
80
100
Durable goods
11.7
12.4
14.0
11.7
11.8
14.0
58
85
100
Nondurable goods
47.7
56.5
48.5
50.2
53.2
48.5
55
85
100
24.7
32.9
26.6
26.1
30.5
26.6
55
87
100
100
Food and beverages
Clothing and shoes
Other
Services.
- ..
. . ._
11.9
11.4
8.6
13.5
10.2
8.6
51
89
11.1
12.2
13.3
10.6
12.5
13.3
61
78
100
40.6
31.1
37.5
38.1
35.0
37.5
62
71
100
Housing
14.5
9.4
12.5
10.0
10.5
12.5
84
72
100
Other
26.1
21.7
25.0
28.1
24.5
25.0
54
71
100
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
the stockpiling of strategic and critical ma- stemmed mainly from the impaired fiscal
terials. Since 1953, and over the postwar position of State and local government
decade as a whole, defense outlays have units.
Contrariwise, the generally prosperous
accounted for about one-half of total governmental purchases. Their share was conditions of the postwar period improved
lower prior to the Korean war, and higher the revenue sources of State and local governments and their ability to borrow, and
during the years of that conflict.
Dollarwise, and also in percentage terms, otherwise strengthened their willingness to
fluctuations have been particularly pro- embark upon construction and other pronounced in the procurement of military grams. Population growth and shifts—such
equipment, currently the largest single item as the movement to suburban residential
in a broad object breakdown of defense areas—provided a special impetus to the
outlays. Moreover, the composition of demand for many services typically proequipment procurement has been subject vided by these governments.
to continuing change, as rapid progress in
A detailed view of government services
military technology has led to a high rate in the national income framework is proof obsolescence in general, and more par- vided for the first time by the new functicularly to a shift from conventional items tional breakdown of public expenditures
included in this report. Outlays for eduto nuclear and other modern weapons.
Inasmuch as the production of military cation—including new construction as well
goods is concentrated largely in durable as running expenses—currently account
goods manufacturing, the impact of for almost two-fifths of total State and local
changes in the defense program on the na- purchases. Expenditures for highways (the
tional economy cannot be inferred from construction of which is financed to a subcomparisons of the broad defense and stantial extent by Federal grants) account
national output totals alone. As the subse- for another 20 percent. The remaining
quent analysis of postwar business fluctua- two-fifths implements a wide variety of
tions will show, the specific industrial other functions, the most important of
incidence of defense purchases is an essen- which are health and sanitation, general
tial link in the chain of causal events exr administration, public safety and protecplaining the dynamics of postwar business tion, the provision of public utility capital
facilities, and the maintenance and deconditions.
In an assessment of the longer-range velopment of natural resources.
Most of the categories of State and local
economic effects of the defense program,
its impact on scientific and technological purchases have shared in the postwar exprogress should be noted. The large defense pansion of the total. Inasmuch as a major
funds now being disbursed for research and part of this expansion took the form of new
development have augmented substan- construction, which had lagged particularly
tially the total amount of our national re- in the prior decade, categories of expendisources devoted to this purpose. The direct tures—such as education and highways—
aim of these public outlays is of course the which involve relatively high ratios of new
strengthening of our military defenses, but construction grew at particularly rapid
they also affect general economic produc- rates.
tivity because of the close interrelations
Developments in the area of Federal
which have developed between military and civilian purchases have been less striking.
Examination of the record reveals the inindustrial technological progress.
creased Federal responsibilities (as compared with the prewar period) in such
CIVILIAN FUNCTIONS EXPAND
varied fields as foreign affairs, public
As already indicated, purchases for ci- health, social security, the care of veterans,
vilian functions have accounted for about transportation, agriculture, and natural reone-half of the government total since the sources. But fluctuations in Federal purwar. State and local expenditures have far chasing of sufficient size to make an imprint
outranked the nondefense outlays of the on overall business conditions have been
Federal Government. Amounting to $13 confined to two major programs: expendibillion in 1947 and to $36 billion 10 years tures for agricultural price support mainly
later, they rose steadily over the entire by the Commodity Credit Corporation,
decade. Federal purchases were about $5 and (in the earlier part of the decade)
billion in both terminal years, although foreign economic assistance in kind.
their decade average was somewhat higher.
The upsurge in State and local pur- GROWTH OF OTHER EXPENDITURES
chases—from less than 6 percent to 8 perPurchases of goods and services are the
cent of GNP—is explicable partly in terms largest item on the list of government exof prior restrictions upon such spending. penditures. Other categories are included
During the war these restrictions reflected also, and have assumed increasing importhe precedence of military over civilian re- tance in the postwar period. In 1957, for
quirements. In the prewar decade they instance, governmental units purchased
$86 billions of goods and services. The total
expenditures of these units, as measured in
the national income accounts, amounted
to more than $114 billion on a consolidated
basis.
The difference consisted largely of transfer payments ($21 billion) and interest
paid on government debt ($6 billion). Although these payments do not involve the
performance of productive services, economic significance attaches to them because they establish broad sources of income that do not move with the cycles of
economic activity. In the case of unemployment insurance benefits, they actually
move in a contrary fashion and have a
stabilizing effect by partly offsetting
changes in earnings from production.
The growth of transfer payments has
been substantial. Setting aside international grants in cash, which in 1957
amounted to about $lJ/2 billion and are
discussed in the survey of foreign markets,
government transfer payments to persons
increased from about $11 billion in the
early postwar years to $20 billion in 1957.
They accounted for about 5 percent of personal incomes in the postwar decade, as
compared with 1 percent in 1929.
Table 2.—Government Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income Accounts,,
Selected Years, 1929-57
[Billions of dollars]
Receipts
1929
1947
1950
1953
1957
11.3
57.1
69.3
94.9
116.2
Personal taxes
2.6
21.5
20.8
35.8
42.7
Corporate profits taxes..
1.4
11.3
17.9
20.2
21.6
Indirect business taxes..
7.0
18.6
23.7
30.2
37.6
6.9
Contributions for social
insurance..
Expenditures
Purchases
.
National defense
Other
Transfer paj^ments, etc_Surplus or deficit
.2
5.7
8.7
14.2
10.2
43 8
61.1 102.0
114. 5
8.5
28/4
39.0
82.8
85.7
.6
10.2
14.1
49.0
43.9
7.8
18.1
24.8
33.9
41.8
1.7
15.4
22.1
19.2
28.8
1.0
13.3
8.2
-7.1
1-7
A few major developments explain the
postwar course of these government payments to individuals. Most important was
the expansion of the various social security
programs broadly defined, which has reflected both natural growth and extended
coverage. The old-age and survivors insurance program was the most important
item in this connection, accounting for $7
billion of the $9 billion net growth of transfer payments from 1947 to 1957. State
unemployment insurance benefit payments
have risen also as rates were increased, and
so have disbursements for the various forms
of public assistance.
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
Partly countering the growth of these
and other civilian types of transfers have
been disbursements to former military personnel. Military pensions, disability, and
retirement payments increased throughout
the postwar period. But their annual
growth was more than offset until recently
by the progressive decline of special programs—such as mustering-out and terminal leave payments, and readjustment,
self-employment, and subsistence allowances to veterans—which were at their
peak in the years immediately following
World War II.
HIGHER TAX YIELDS
As can be seen from Table 2, the enlarged flow of governmental expenditures
during the postwar period was accompanied by a record volume of taxation.
Combined receipts of all levels of government in 1957, at $116 billion, about
matched expenditures for that year. Individual income and other personal taxes
accounted for almost 40 percent of the
receipts aggregate, and corporate profits
taxes for almost 20 percent. Sales, excise,
property and other indirect taxes constituted more than 30 percent of the total,
and the remaining 10 percent consisted of
employment taxes and other contributions
for social insurance.
In spite of changes in tax rates, these
broad proportions are generally representative of the source pattern of governmental receipts for the postwar period as a
whole.
The main contrast with the late 1920's
lies in the relative expansion of individual and corporate income taxes, which are
the mainstays of the expanded Federal revenue structure, and in the employment
taxes associated with the social security
program which had not been established
in the earlier period. Mirroring these developments, the share of indirect taxes has
declined.
CUMULATIVE SURPLUS
The near-balance of receipts and expenditures which obtained in 1957 was
characteristic also of the postwar period as
a whole. As can be seen from Figure 4, periods of surplus and of deficit have alternated, reflecting largely the course of defense expenditures and the state of the
business cycle. Over the 1947-57 period as
a whole, however, government receipts
and expenditures, as measured in the national income accounts, were slightly better than in balance, resulting in a surplus
of $26 billion—about 3 percent of total receipts or expenditures. With the cumulative accounts of State and local governments showing a small deficit, the Federal
fiscal position was actually somewhat more
favorable than that shown by the combined figures.
Needless to say, approximate balance of
government receipts and expenditures
does not imply that government operations are neutral in their effects upon
business conditions. Given the current size
of government intakes and outpayments,
they have significant repercussions on the
economy whether or not they are in balance.
Some of the effects of governmental expenditures have been mentioned earlier.
An important consequence of the postwar
tax structure may be pointed up here, because it is relevant to the subsequent discussion.
The enlarged volume of taxation has
weakened the link between earnings from
production and the disposable income of
individuals and corporations. Changes in
the value of national production and in
the earnings arising from it are not transmitted fully to private income recipients
but are dampened by changes in the Government tax take. Quite apart from these
mechanical cushioning effects, a high level
of taxation enlarges the opportunity of the
Government to influence market demand
via tax rate adjustments. As will be shown
later, the role of taxation has been clearly
discernible in the course of postwar business cycles.
Foreign Markets
Exports are another major market for
United States production. Foreign demand
was high through most of the postwar
period. Centering at first on the needs of
economic reconstruction, it subsequently
reflected the general prevalence of prosperity and the investment programs all over
the world which have been aimed at longrun improvement in living standards.
Foreign purchases from the United
States are of course financed mainly
through foreigners' sales to us. In the postwar period, however, an unusually large
fraction of the financing has been dependent on loan and cash aid programs carried
on by the United States Government. Outlays under such programs aggregated $30
billion in the 1946-57 period. Adding aid
in kind—which, however, is treated in the
GNP measures as a component of Government purchases—brings the 12-year total
of United States aid to $62 billion.
Loan and grant funds from this country
played an especially important part in foreign trade financing under the conditions
of economic emergency just after the war.
Their relative role has declined since that
time, as imports have tended upward with
the general economic expansion. While
total cash grants and loans under these
Government programs have shown no
growth in the period, they have been continued on a substantial scale as part of our
overall international security program, and
are still of critical importance to free economies in many parts of the world.
EXPORTS 5 PERCENT OF OUTPUT
Foreign countries bought roundly 5 percent of the postwar output of the United
States, the fraction having reached a peak
of 8 percent in 1947. In absolute terms the
high point came in 1957, with an export
total of $26 billion. (These figures exclude
military and other Federal aid in kind.)
Though price advances contributed to the
growth of the total over the past decade,
there was a substantial increase in real
volume as well.
Superimposed on the basic tendency of
exports to expand since World War II has
been a series of large fluctuations. The
most notable of these was the bulge which
came as an immediate aftermath of the
war. Aside from emergency needs for the
relief and rehabilitation of foreign nationals at that time, United States products were needed to help make good the
destruction or undermaintenance of productive facilities abroad. Many countries,
moreover, had accumulated liquid reserves
and deferred requirements for United
States production, just as had the United
States consumer and capital-goods markets.
Subsequent fluctuations around the
longer-term uptrend stemmed from a variety of similarly transitory factors. A sharp
reaction followed the 1947 peak. Somewhat later, the Korean hostilities had brief
but widespread repercussions in world
markets. These, like the more limited effects of the Suez crisis of late 1957, were
additional to the changes attributable to
such factors as year-to-year variations in
world output and prices of agricultural
commodities, and to cyclical movements
in European business activity.
FINANCING OF EXPORTS
The accompanying table shows how foreign buyers obtained dollar exchange to
pay for their purchases of United States
products. Since 1947 such buying has
totaled close to $200 billion. All but about
$30 billion was balanced by United States
purchases from abroad. Two-thirds of the
remainder was financed through cash
grants by the United States Government,
and one-third through United States private and public investment.
Imports of goods and services grew
rather steadily throughout the period, and
in 1957 passed $20 billion—a figure more
than twice that recorded a decade earlier.
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
8
After allowance for the rise in prices, the
bulk of this expansion is seen to have reflected an increase in the physical volume of
trade.
Dollar earnings of foreigners from sales
to the United States tended to finance a
progressively larger share of our exports
as war-born dislocations were overcome.
The export surplus declined from $9 billion
in 1947 to $1 billion or less annually in most
years of the 1950-55 period. There was,
Table 3.—Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts, Selected Years,
1947-57
[Billions of dollars]
Exports of goods and services
[mports of goods
services. .
1950
1953
1955
17.9
13.1
16.6
19.4
26.0
26.0
and
Export surplus
8.9
12.5
17.0
18.3
21.0
21.0
9.0
.6
-.4
1.1
5.0
5.0
.1
2.8
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
8.9
-2.2
-2.0
A
3.5
Net transfer payments
by Government-__
Net
foreign
ment
1957
1947
invest-
however, an increase in the past 2 years.
From 1952 to 1957, the portion of this
surplus financed by cash transfers from
the Federal Government was stable at
about $ 1 % billion a year, or roughly half
as much as in the peak years of the Marshall Plan. These cash transfers are grants
for the furthering of economic develop-
ment abroad. (Military aid, being given in
kind rather than in cash, is excluded here
along with economic aid in kind; this
treatment is consistent with that underlying the GNP measure of exports.)
Net foreign investment by the United
States has been comparatively limited in
most years since the early postwar period,
when the totals were swelled by Federal
Government loans of an emergency aid
character. In the 1950-55 period, in fact,
foreigners' new investment (including gold
purchases) here generally exceeded the
flow of United States capital abroad. More
recently, there was a rise in net foreign
investment by the United States. This involved a sharp expansion in the outflow
of American private capital and, in 1957, a
drop in new investment here by foreigners.
The net effect was to permit the financing
of a $4 billion increase in our export balance from 1955 to 1957 with relatively
little dependence on expansion in Government grants and lending.
Private investment abroad fluctuated
around $1 billion annually during most of
the postwar period, but rose in 1956 and
1957 to $3 billion or more. Direct investment of United States business firms in
foreign branches and subsidiaries accounted
for $2 billion in each of those years.
One of the characteristic features of foreign investment since the war has been the
relatively large contribution of direct investment to the total. Ordinary tradefinance credit and the purchase of foreign
Fig. 4
Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures
Billion Dollars
100
Deficit
75
Receipts
Jk>T
50
25
0
J$
w
... 1..
1947
\~y
Surplus
¥
Expenditures
-
. i.. i i . . .
48
49
50
QUARTERLY
I i i i 1 i i i (i ii ii i i 1 i ii 1 l i i 1 ii i 1 1 1 I |1 I 1
51
52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
TOTALS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AT ANNUAL RATES
securities as portfolio investments, on the
other hand, have been relatively less important than in prewar patterns of capital
outflow.
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS
As has been noted, United States Government programs have released dollar exchange in our foreign markets not only
through the cash grants distinguished in
the table but also through international
loans and credits.
In addition to the foreign purchases of
our output which have been made possible
with these funds, large amounts of American goods and services have been bought by
the Federal Government for the use of
friendly foreign nations under our military
and economic aid programs. The $62-billion total which is analyzed in Figure 5
comprises such assistance in kind as well as
loans and cash grants. The great bulk of
this total is seen to have taken the form of
grants rather than loans. Two-thirds of it
was for emergency relief and other economic aid; the military-aid fraction has
been up in recent years, however, amounting since 1952 to over one-half of the total.
Domestic Investment
An essential requirement for a progressive industrial economy is that a portion
of current output be used for investment
in capital goods. The United States economy has characteristically featured a high
rate of investment; this has been a major
influence in the outstanding growth of our
standard of living.
Investment is typically one of the more
dynamic elements of demand. Its principal components—fixed capital and inventories—are both subject to rapid change.
The former accounts for the principal share
of total investment, and includes outlays on
industrial plant and equipment, housing,
and related facilities. Since multiple-use
goods of relatively long life are involved,
production of them need not be geared at
all closely to current use, and hence can
be bunched or postponed.
Inventory investment—the change in
business inventories—is an item which can
be either positive or negative as inventories
are raised or lowered. It is subject to pronounced short-term variability—a feature
brought out in the subsequent discussion
of postwar cyclical developments. At this
time, however, attention is called to one
central fact: Inventory holdings are a sizable element in the capital structure of
business, and their expansion with the
growth of the economy has accounted for
a significant part of total investment. In
manufacturing, which holds a large part
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
of all inventory goods in the economy,
stocks at the end of 1957 came to over $50
billion, equal to roughly three-eighths of
the total of capital goods in the industry.
Moreover, the buildup of manufacturers'
inventories over the 1929-57 span was
nearly as large as the growth in the net
real value of structures and equipment.
(See Figure 30 in Chapter 6.)
CAPITAL INVESTMENT HIGH
Gross fixed business investment—expenditures on nonresidential construction
and producers' d u r a b l e equipment—
reached $47 billion in 1957, an all-time
high in terms of both current dollars and
physical volume. This investment was sizable throughout the postwar period, even
when reduced during the brief intervals of
cyclical contraction.
A large backlog of demand for capital
facilities had accumulated by the end of
World War II, stemming from the period
of underinvestment during the 1930's, restrictions imposed in the war period, and
the heavy wear-and-tear on equipment involved in the pressures of war production.
Once supply conditions after the war permitted resumption of volume production
of capital goods, business moved forward
almost continuously in its programs of
modernization and expansion, spurred by
the general prosperity of the period. These
programs traced three wavelike patterns
superimposed on an upward sloping
trend: the first culminating in 1948, the
second in 1953, and the third in 1957.
While the expansion in outlays for business facilities in the postwar period reflected in part rising equipment prices and construction costs, the new additions to the
physical stock of capital were of record
proportions.
Current-dollar outlays in this period
constituted about the same relative share of
GNP—around one-tenth—as in the prosperous 1920's, the most recent comparable
period of facilities expansion. Expressed in
constant dollars, the share of postwar fixed
investment was somewhat lower than in
that earlier period. However, it seems best
not to read this difference too literally,
inasmuch as the constant-dollar data do
not take complete account of quality
change and over the long-run quality improvements in fixed equipment probably
have exceeded those in other goods and
services.
CAPITAL STOCK IMPROVED
Ratios of fixed investment to total output, while helpful in studying market
demand patterns and fluctuations, do not
portray the extent to which the supply of
capital is geared to growth requirements.
To shed light on this latter aspect, information on productive capacity is needed.
While this is difficult to obtain, a few broad
qualitive aspects may be noted in assessing
the postwar investment programs of business.
The first relates to the environment in
which the postwar expansion was initiated
and carried through. While private investment was held back in the 1930's and the
war years, advances in science and technology had continued apace. The intensive
search for labor- and materials-saving
facilities encouraged by the pressures of
Fig. 5
Foreign Assistance
By U. S. Government
Cumulative, 1946-57
war requirements, and the subsequent continuing emphasis on research and development, quickened the pace of discovery of
new techniques. Thus, it was possible to
incorporate into the postwar programs
types of machinery, materials, and processes which were probably far more efficient
than ever before.
Secondly, it appears that the capital
stock in the past decade was in an especially favorable working condition in terms
of its age composition. To throw some light
on the "newness" aspect of facilities, an
attempt has been made to measure the relation of net equipment stocks (after depreciation) to gross stocks. Whereas this
ratio will tend to exceed 50 percent in a
growing economy, throughout most of the
period it was markedly above it, and exceeded the 55 percent ratio which applied
during the late 1920's.
A third factor to be noted about postwar
business fixed investment concerns its relative composition as between equipment and
construction: This differed markedly
from that of the 1920's. The shift involved
is covered in the lower panel of Figure 6,
which shows that business expenditures for
fixed capital in the recent period were
concentrated much more heavily upon acquisition of new equipment, and proportionately less upon plant expansion.
Also of interest in this regard is Figure
30 in Chapter 6. This depicts the striking
change which has occurred in the composition of capital assets in manufacturing
over the past several decades. Measured
in constant dollars, the net value (after
depreciation) of the stock of equipment
has grown very substantially whereas the
additions to manufacturers' plant have
been comparatively moderate.
It is clearly evident that business firms
have found it feasible to conserve on the
space aspect of their facilities. This basic
development may reflect in part a more
intensive utilization of existing plant capacity and, possibly more important, an improvement in design and engineering not
only of the newer buildings, but of the new
equipment put in place as well. There
would seem to be a reasonable presumption that this shift in application of the
business investment dollar has involved a
more productive allocation of fixed capital
resources.
ACTIVE HOUSING MARKET
In addition to the substantial accumulation of industry-type fixed facilities during
the past decade, investment in new housing
for the Nation's population also represented an important claim on resources
and at the same time contributed significantly to the favorable record of total business activity.
Nonfarm r e s i d e n t i a l construction
amounted to $17 billion in 1957. This was
moderately below the record of $18^4
billion in 1955, but almost 2J/2 times the
dollar volume of 1947 which was still affected by conditions carrying over from the
war. Much of this dollar rise over the
decade represented higher construction
costs; after allowance for this factor, the
real volume of nonfarm housing put in
place in 1957 was half again as large as in
the earlier year.
During the first few years after World
War II, demands for housing associated
with normal family growth were augmented by demands of many families
which had been required to "double-up"
because of war-engendered shortages or
still inadequate financial resources. Thus,
demand was strong; the ceiling on housing
activity was set by the capacity limitations
of the period.
By the early 1950Js, these abnormal demand and supply conditions had been substantially alleviated. Construction of new
housing was exceptionally rapid in 1950,
10
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
with the physical volume put in place that
year up almost 40 percent over the average
of the two preceding years. The volume of
activity tapered in 1951 and 1952, rose to
an all-time high by 1955, and receded over
the next two years. The quantity of housing put in place in 1957 equaled that of
1950, and was higher than in any prior
year.
For the postwar period as a whole, the
absolute volume of housing production was
far above any previous experience. Relative to the total value of output, nonfarm
residential construction was close to that
of the 1920's, which encompassed the previous housing boom.
A combination of favorable circumstances helped to make effective the record
housing requirements of the postwar
period. Incomes were high and generally
rising; other financial circumstances of
would-be homeowners, including their
liquid-asset position, were also generally
favorable; and the terms of financing were
made more liberal than ever before.
As the postwar experience unfolded,
mortgage financing terms became a significant factor influencing housing activity.
Liberalization of terms helped the expansion of residential purchases in 1949-50, in
1954-55, and probably in 1957-58. On
the other hand, in 1951-52 and 1956-57
changes in mortgage terms appear to have
constituted restrictive influences.
solidated statement is that private saving—•
from individuals and corporations—accounted for all but a small fraction of the
postwar total. The portion of total national
saving contributed by government—
through an excess of governmental receipts over expenditures—was less than 5
percent for the 1947-57 period as a whole.
As pointed out earlier, the cumulative
governmental surplus on income and product transactions for this period amounted
to $26 billion—comprised of a surplus of
$30 billion for the Federal Government and
a deficit of $4 billion for State and local
Fig. 6
Business Fixed Investment
In postwar years was high . .
and featured a shift from
buildings to equipment
Financing Investment
The tremendous volume of postwar investment entailed financing on an unprecedented scale.
For the economy as a whole, the saving
required to finance the expansion of capital assets is derived from individuals, corporations, and government. Separate
data on the saving of these groups is given
for all postwar years in table V - l of the
Statistical Section; also recorded are the
matching flows of private domestic investment (fixed capital formation and inventory change) and foreign investment. In
this consolidated statement of saving and
investment for the Nation, the financial
investments involving transactions among
the domestic segments of the economy are
canceling.
PRIVATE SAVING PREDOMINATES
As is readily apparent from this table,
private domestic investment dominates the
overall investment picture. Foreign investment for the 1947-57 period taken as a
whole amounted to only 2 percent of a
gross investment aggregate on the order of
$575 billion.
On the saving side, perhaps the most
noteworthy feature revealed by the con
governments. On a year-to-year basis, it
may be emphasized again, swings in the
government surplus or deficit were sometimes sizable; they affected short-run economic developments much more than is
indicated by the cumulative data which
are used to provide a broad postwar
perspective.
SOURCE AND USE OF CAPITAL FUNDS
By reason of the overwhelming importance of individuals and corporations in
the postwar saving and investment picture,
two additional tables in the Statistical Section—V-9 and V-10—are particularly
relevant to the present discussion. These
contain postwar estimates of the sources
and uses of capital funds for individuals
(including those owning their own businesses) and for nonfinancial corporations.
Condensations of these materials, in the
form of cumulative data for the 1947-57
period as a whole, are provided in the two
accompanying tabulations. In addition to
data on gross investment in tangible assets
and on gross saving, these tabulations cover
transactions in financial assets and liabilities.
These "sources-and-uses" estimates may
thus be viewed broadly as elaborations of
the consolidated saving and investment
account—as breakdowns of it in the form
of separate saving-investment accounts for
individuals and nonfinancial corporations.
However, these three sets of data have not
yet been brought into full definitional and
statistical consistency; this will be accomplished as part of a comprehensive study
of saving and investment, described in later
chapters, now under way in the Office of
Business Economics. Meanwhile, although
comparisons of a detailed type should be
avoided, the present materials are adequate
to support significant generalizations regarding the postwar financing of individuals and of corporations, particularly when
based on data for the period as a whole.
INTERNAL FINANCING IMPORTANT
Before the discussion is thus directed to
the financial positions of these economic
groups, two further observations of a more
general import may prove of interest.
1. Taken together, the three statistical
tables we have been discussing indicate
that, for the postwar period as a whole,
changes in net financial claims on other
parts of the economy for government, individuals, and nonfinancial corporations
were not large in relation to the gross flows
involved.
For government, as already noted, the
cumulative $26 billion surplus for the years
1947-57 represented a small percentage
of the aggregate receipts or expenditures
of the period. In similar fashion, gross saving did not differ substantially from gross
investment in the case of either individuals
or corporations; the net change in financial claims (increase in financial assets
less increase in debt) did not bulk large in
terms of total financing requirements which
amounted to around $400 billion for each
group. (For corporations, this generalization includes an allowance for the fact that
the differences shown in the table would
be reduced if the figures were tied fully
into the national income accounts.)
As against this substantial similarity of
financial inflows and outflows for each of
the groups for the whole postwar period,
two additional points may be noted briefly:
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
that such similarity held to a much less
degree over short intervals within the period, and that it reflected offsets in a network of flows among the several groups
which have a particular significance for
study of the saving and investment process.
It will be understood that these comparisons of saving, investment, and financial flows of individuals and corporations
apply to each sector as a whole. The individuals or firms contributing to saving were
not necessarily the same as those making
the investments. Among individuals, the
processes of saving and investment are
usually so separate that there is little direct
causal relationship between the amounts
involved. In the case of corporations, however, the correspondence between the saving and investment processes is probably
sufficient for the availability of internal
funds to have had some effect on the
amount of corporate investment and, conversely, for the size of corporate requirements for investment funds to have influenced the amount of dividend payments,
and of retained profits.
2. For reasons already indicated, conclusions based on joint use of the consolidated saving and investment account and
the related tables for corporations and individuals should be kept on a general level.
These materials cannot be used, for example, to obtain precise measures of the
comparative changes in financial claims of
the several economic groups. It would appear, however, that for the period 1947-57
as a whole gross corporate saving was less
than gross investment, and that corporations absorbed additional funds from outside sources to finance the difference; that
government was a net lender for the period
as a whole; and that in the case of individuals also there was a net outflow of current
funds to help finance expansion elsewhere
in the economy, although the amount involved may have been rather small. It is to
be noted, however, that the surplus underlying government lending reflected an
excess of receipts over expenditures in
social insurance accounts, and therefore
may be viewed as constituting saving
directly on behalf of individuals.
FINANCING OF INDIVIDUALS
In the acquisition of tangible assets, the
major use of individuals' capital funds in
the postwar period was for investment in
housing. The remainder of physical investments made by individuals—also large—
was in their capacity as owners of noncorporate businesses, and consisted primarily of outlays for fixed facilities. (See
Table 4.)
The investment of nonfarm entrepreneurs involved in opening new businesses
was an especially dynamic factor in the
early postwar years. The business popula4AA7RQ r\ PIO
tion had been restricted during the depression and the war, but with the return
to prosperous peacetime conditions new
firms were formed at a record rate. By 1948
the business population was restored to a
size more in line with the long-term trend.
Individuals channeled a sizable share
of their gross saving into the more liquid
types of assets in the past decade. About
$75 billion was added to cash and savings
accounts, or two-fifths of individuals' total
addition to financial assets. This was superimposed on the already huge accumulations built up during the war. When individuals are considered as a group, their
liquid-asset position was quite favorable
throughout the postwar period, far more
so than before the war.
Individuals also added around $70 billion to their equities in private insurance
and pension reserves. The funds thus set
aside were, of course, available through
financial intermediaries for financing the
capital requirements of business firms and
purchasers of other capital assets, such as
housing. A sizable additional volume of
saving in the form of insurance and pension reserves accrued to individuals
through government-administered funds;
such saving, as already noted, is regarded
in the national accounts as part of the
government surplus.
The remainder of the financial asset accumulation of individuals took the form
of purchases of securities, divided about
equally between government and private
issues. These purchases either represented
a direct contribution of individuals to the
financing of the issuing units or were an
addition to the indirect supply of personal
saving which flowed through banks and
other financial institutions to the investment markets.
These accumulations of physical and financial assets by individuals were financed
from gross saving and from borrowed
funds roughly in a 2-to-l proportion. The
postwar rise in individuals' indebtedness,
about $170 billion, was exceptionally rapid. This is explained in part by the relatively low indebtedness at the end of World
War II. The favorable wartime financial
conditions had permitted most individuals
to pay off a substantial amount of outstanding debt; at the same time, wartime
restrictions had limited the availability of
housing and consumer durables, the principal uses which normally involve substantial borrowing.
Use of borrowed funds was also fostered
by financial developments in the postwar
period. Interest costs were low by historical standards, and other terms of borrowing, especially for residential purchases,
were greatly liberalized. The largest share
of the total increase in personal debt took
the form of federally insured or guaranteed mortgages on which terms of financing were especially liberal. Undoubtedly,
11
these permitted the purchase of residential
properties by many individuals who might
not otherwise have aspired to home ownership.
The generally buoyant condition of real
estate markets, characterized by rising real
estate values, was also conducive to mortgage debt expansion.
It seems clear that on an overall basis
the financial position of individuals remained generally favorable throughout the
postwar years, although of course not all
individuals or groups shared the same experience. Given the high and generally rising volume of income, at no time was
Table 4.—Sources and Uses of Private
Noncorporate Funds, Cumulative Totals,
1947-57 1
[Billions of dollars]
Sources, total
Personal saving
455
.
Depreciation
.
Nonfarm housing
All other
Increase in debt
Mortgage debt on nonfarm housing
Consumer debt
All other debt
Uses, total
171
116
34
82
168
81
33
54
455
Gross investment in tangible assets
Nonfarm housing
All other
282
136
145
Increase in financial assets
Liquid assets
Currency and bank deposits
Savings and loan associations
shares
Securities
Government
Corporate and other
Private insurance and pension reserves.
174
73
40
33
34
16
18
67
1. Data cover individuals (including noncorporate business), nonprofit institutions, and private pension and related funds.
there evidence that weaknesses in the financial situation of individuals significantly affected the growth and stability of the
economy.
CORPORATE FINANCING
As in the case of individuals, corporations added substantially to their financial
as well as physical assets in the postwar
period.
As shown in Table 5, total uses of funds
requiring financing amounted to about
$380 billion. Of this, three-fourths represented investment in tangible assets; onefourth, an increase in financial assets
taking the form of extension in book credit
to customers and additions to liquid and
other short-term assets.
Note should be taken of the fact that
corporations made only slight additions to
their liquid resources over the past decade.
This reflects for the most part the excess
12
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
liquidity with which corporate business entered the postwar period. This favorable
position was fairly general among business
firms, and seldom if ever in the past decade
was liquidity an important independent
factor serving to limit business activity.
Internal sources—retained earnings and
depreciation allowances-—accounted for
three-fifths of total corporate financial requirements. It may be noted, however, that
whereas retained earnings consituted the
predominant form of internal financing in
Table 5.—Sources and Uses of Corporate
Funds, Cumulative Totals, 1947-57 1
[Billions of dollars]
Sources, total
Internal sources
Retained profits
Depreciation
External long-term sources
Stocks
Debt
Short-term sources
Trade payables
Other
Uses, total
Gross investment in tangible assets
Plant and equipment
Inventories
379
230
106
124
85
25
60
64
27
37
379
292
246
46
Increase in financial assets
87
Cash and U. S. Government securities
13
Receivables and other assets
74
1. Excluding banks and insurance companies.
the early part of the decade, the steady
rise of depreciation made that source of
financing predominant in the more recent
period.
The reduction in the relative importance
of retained earnings was characteristic of
most industries, and reflected in considerable degree a gradual move away from the
low ratios of dividends to after-tax profits.
While these stemmed in part from heavy
investment requirements, they were also
a legacy of the financial troubles of the
1930's, as most corporate executives carried over at least into the early postwar
years a determination to establish comfortable equity cushions.
The almost continuous prosperity of the
past decade and its concurrent rebuilding
of plant and equipment slowly brought a
higher payout to stockholders. However,
as late as 1957 the dividend-earnings ratios
of most industries remained conservative
in historical perspective. These relatively
low postwar dividend payments permitted
a substantial buildup of equity funds to
offset in part the impact on corporation
financial structures of the rapid upsurge
in postwar borrowing.
The reduced share of retained earnings
in gross corporate saving also reflected the
substantial and steady postwar rise in depreciation allowances which was general
throughout corporate industry. This rise
stemmed from both basic factors and from
special influences related to tax law
changes. Depreciation allowances were
fairly low at the start of the period. As the
record-breaking postwar spending programs proceeded—generally involving expanded physical capacity purchased at
rising cost—the depreciable asset base and
depreciation allowances were steadily increased.
Rapid amortization provisions were introduced into the tax laws, first in 1950 for
defense-related expansions and later, in
1954, for all new facilities. Both of these
changes gave a special impetus to depreciation allowances in the more recent
period. By 1957, the 1950 provision was of
declining importance, but this was still
being largely offset by the rise imparted by
the 1954 change. Obviously, as time goes
on these special aspects will lose force since
there was no change in total depreciation
allowed, but merely in its time-phasing.
In addition to the huge amounts of gross
equity funds supplied from these internal
sources, corporations raised about $25 billion through the sale of new stock issues.
These were probably of somewhat lesser
relative importance than in earlier prosperous periods, but total equity financing—
internal and external combined—appears
to have supplied a relatively large part of
aggregate needs.
Corporate business borrowed substantial
sums in the postwar period, with the net
increase in interest-bearing debt from 1947
to 1957 amounting to $60 billion.
In consideration of this increase, it
should be noted first that debt and its
servicing requirements were exceptionally
low at the start of the period. Not only had
corporations paid off a substantial volume
of existing obligations from liquid funds
accumulated during the war years, but
Table 6.—Percentage Distribution of Gross
National Product, by Durability and Source
of Demand
1929
Gross national product
Durable goods
Personal consumption
Producers' durable equipment
Government purchases
Other i
Nondurable goods
1947
100.0 100.0
100.0
17.4
20.2
20.8
8 8
5.6
.4
2.6
7.1
1.3
3.0
9.1
6.3
4.1
1.3
36.5
41.1
32.5
Personal consumption
Government
purchases
Other 1
36.1
.6
-.2
39.9
.9
.3
31.4
.9
.2
Ser v ices
Personal consumption
Government
purchases
Other 1
35.4
30.7
4.8
-.1
30.7
22 0
84
.3
35.2
24.2
11.2
Construction
10.7
8.0
11.5
8 3
2.4
6.5
1.5
8 3
3.2
Private
Government
o
1. Consists of net exports and change in business inventories.
much of the debt still outstanding had been
refinanced on the more favorable terms
then prevailing.
Interest costs, while tending upward
over most of the last decade, have remained low as compared with the past.
Corporate bond yields (Moody's series)
currently average 4 percent, about one
point above the postwar average but almost
two points below the average for the 1920's.
Total corporate interest payments on outstanding debt in 1957 were up about twofifths from 1929, but over this period there
was a much greater rise in the source from
which these payments are made—profits
before taxes and interest. Interest paid in
1957 was 14 percent of these available
funds, compared with an average of 22 percent just prior to World War II and 34
percent in 1929.
CHANGING INCOME
STRUCTURE
The expansion of gross national product
has been accompanied by a corresponding
rise in the national income—a comprehensive alternative measure of national output
expressed in terms of the earnings derived
from production. From 1947 to 1957, the
national income increased from $198 billion to $364 billion, or four-fifths. This rise,
of course, reflected not only the expansion
in physical volume of production but also
the sharp advance in prices over the period.
Interest attaches to the national income
mainly because it lends itself to breakdowns which differ from those of the gross
national product, and hence throw additional light on the functioning of the economy.
In this section, the broad effects of
changes in the product composition of output on the industrial income structure are
traced, and it is shown how changes in that
structure, in turn, influenced the forms—
such as wages and profits—in which income has accrued. Industrial shifts affect
the forms of income mainly because the
various industries differ widely as to their
predominant type of legal organization—
e. g., corporate vs. noncorporate business—
and hence as to the income type patterns
they generate.
Analysis of these basic distributions of
income—by industry, by type, and by legal
form of organization—is of interest primarily because they provide essential links
in explaining the circular flow of income
and purchasing power through the economy as this is affected by, and in turn
affects, final demand as registered in the
GNP.
These three distributions have numerous other uses also. For instance, the industrial origin of national income is
13
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
indicative of the relative utilization of
economic resources by the various industries. Again, the breakdown by income
types is relevant to the consideration of the
distribution of income among economic
groups. The legal-form distribution is useful in a variety of studies bearing on the
institutional structure of the economy.
Industrial Patterns
One of the new tables in this volume
makes it possible to trace more clearly the
impact of shifts in the composition of final
product on the industrial distribution of
the national income. This is table VI1-5
in the Statistical Section, which provides
a classification of the gross national product by major type of product—durable
goods, nondurable goods, services, and construction.
In the conventional breakdown of gross
national product by type of expenditures,
the goods-services classification is provided
only for the consumer market, and, in the
case of construction, only the private component is shown. The new table extends the
goods-services-construction breakdown to
the entire GNP. It provides a superior basis
for studying the link between product demand and industrial activity, since the industrial structure of national income is
closely related to this comprehensive product classification of total output.
Table 6 shows this new classification in
a condensed form for 1929, 1947, and 1957.
It will be understood that the goods-services percentages given here differ from the
corresponding data already considered for
personal consumption. As indicated above,
the type-of-product classification in Table
6 is carried through for all components of
national product, not just for consumption.
Correspondingly, the percentage breakdowns in this table are based on total GNP,
whereas the earlier figures are based on
total consumption.
SHIFTS IN PRODUCT COMPOSITION
Over the past decade, the principal
change in composition of gross national
product was a relative decline in the goods
portion and a rise in the services portion.
This is evident from the following data
based on Table 6:
Percent cf GNP
1929
1947
1957
Goods
54
61
53
Services
35
31
35
C onstruction
11
8
12
This shift from 1947 to 1957 does not
appear to have been part of a long-run
trend. When the figures are considered in
historical perspective, and interpreted in
light of the particular economic forces at
work in the early postwar period, the
goods-services-construction breakdown of
GNP for 1947 appears out of line. Specifically, the goods component seems relatively high, and services and construction
correspondingly low. From this vantage
point, the postwar shifts in broad product
composition are seen to have represented
a return toward earlier, more normal patterns, rather than the establishment of new
basic movements and relationships. This
generalization is similar to that already
made in the case of personal consumption,
which, of course, is a major determinant of
the product composition of GNP.
When durable goods and nondurable
goods are looked at separately, it is clear
that the up-then-down pattern of the total
goods percentage reflects the movement of
nondurable goods, which are the larger
part of the total. The durable goods percentage for 1947 did not differ substantially
from what would have been expected on
the basis of the apparent long-term upward
trend in the relative importance of durable
goods in the gross national product.
These postwar shifts in the composition
of GNP stemmed from a variety of influences pointed out in the previous section
on Market Demand Patterns. Developments in all major markets—government,
consumer, foreign, and investment—contributed to the broad pattern of changing
product mix which emerged.
BROAD INDUSTRIAL IMPACT
The effect of this pattern on the industrial origin of national income is clearly
evident when the separate industry divisions are grouped according to whether
their output is mainly dependent, directly
or indirectly, on final demand for goods
and construction, on the one hand, or for
services, on the other. Needless to say, such
a grouping of industries must be somewhat
arbitrary. Many industries contribute to
the final value of both goods and services.
The transportation industry is an example.
Transportation services enter the value of
goods output in the GNP and are also
represented directly as services when
bought separately by final users, as in the
case of the transportation of passengers.
For purpose of the present analysis, the
goods-associated industries are considered
to be agriculture, manufacturing, mining,
contract construction, trade, and transportation; the services-associated industries
consist of finance, communications and
public utilities, services proper, and government.
The contract construction industry is not
classified separately by reason of the fact
that there is only tenuous correspondence
in movement between this industry on the
income side and construction activity as
included in the GNP. Among the several
differences in coverage between the two
measures, most important are these: That
the GNP construction component—unlike
the contract construction industry—includes force-account work and excludes altogether the value of maintenance and
repair. In the text table below, construction is included with goods in both the
GNP and national income breakdowns:
Goods (including construction) as percent of G N P . . - . _-
1929
1947
65
69
1957
65
Goods-associated industries as percent
ofNT
- .
64
70
64
Services as percent of G N P _ ._ -
35
31
35
Services-associated industries as percent
of NT
36
30
36
As may be seen, there is a remarkable
correspondence between the goods and
services breakdowns of the gross national
product and national income. While this
may have stemmed in part from offsetting
errors in the income allocations, the tabulation establishes beyond doubt the pervasive influence of shifts in the composition
of final demand on the postwar industrial
income structure. This influence, it may be
added, is evident not only in the above
comparison involving the years 1947 and
1957, but on an annual basis as well.
Clearly depicted by the annual data is a
more or less steady rise in the services share
of both GNP and national income, and a
corresponding reduction in the share of
these aggregates accounted for by goods.
Since the postwar shifts in product composition of GNP reflected in the main relatively short-term adjustments, rather than
basic trends, the same generalization applies to the income changes which they
produced. This central finding should serve
as a background in more detailed studies
of the postwar industrial origin of national
income.
The breakdowns of GNP shown above
are based on the current-dollar values of
goods and services. If analogous breakdowns of constant-dollar GNP are prepared—on the basis of table VI1-6 in the
Statistical Section—the relative shares of
goods and services in 1947 appear to be
fairly well in line with long-run developments. In other words, the postwar shifts
in product composition of GNP were due
mainly to the price factor—to relatively
high prices for goods and low prices for
services in 1947, and to their subsequent
readjustment. Therefore, it seems evident
that measures of real income or output by
14
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
industry would show developments for the
postwar period much more in conformity
with long-term trends than those displayed
by the current-dollar data analyzed above.
HIGHLIGHTS BY INDUSTRIES
While any detailed examination of individual industries is precluded, it will be of
interest to highlight the main developments
which occurred in farming, manufacturing,
trade, and government. The first three
account for the bulk of the goods-associated
industry group. Government forms a significant part of the services-associated
group, and is of independent interest.
With respect to the private-industry components of the latter group, it may be noted
that their rate of increase over the postwar
period generally exceeded that of total
national income. This uniformity of developments reflected the broad supply and
demand conditions which in the past decade
affected the services area of the economy
as a whole.
Income originating in farming has had
a long-term downtrend relative to total
national income. In the early postwar period, however, farming temporarily regained a share of the income total—nearly
10 percent—matching that of the late
1920Js. This experience was due to the
prevailing relatively high prices for farm
products which reflected a strong domestic
market reinforced by exceptional foreign
demand. The latter, as noted earlier, was
an outcome of the damaged state of world
agriculture and of the poor growing conditions abroad which characterized the
early postwar years.
As world crop and livestock conditions
improved, farm prices began to recede, and
the longer-term trends affecting United
States farm income reappeared. Beginning
with 1949, income from farming declined
steadily as a proportion of the national
income, to a figure of 4 percent in 1957.
Though the farm share of total national
income has fallen sharply, per capita income originating in farming has been well
maintained over the past quarter-century
in relation to the all-industry average.
Underlying this development is a strong
shift of labor away from farming; the
number of persons engaged in this industry
declined from 19 percent of all persons
engaged in production in 1929 to 8 percent
in 1957.
Manufacturing, the largest of the goodsassociated industries, increased greatly in
relative importance from 1929 to 1957—
from 25 percent to 31 percent of the national income. A figure similar to that for
1957 had been established by 1947 and,
with irregular variations, was characteristic
of the entire postwar decade.
The trend significance of this stability—
its meaning for the longer run—is quite
uncertain because of the many special factors that were operative in this comparatively brief period. Important among them
were the abnormally high output of goods
in the early postwar years, to which manufacturing was the major contributor; the
particular impact of the Korean conflict
upon this industry; and the three postwar
recessions which, although mild for the
economy as a whole, significantly affected
the course of production in manufacturing.
While measurement is not possible, it
would seem that up through the Korean
conflict the net balance of economic forces
was especially favorable for the manufacturing industry; one should therefore not
conclude that the postwar stability in the
ratio of manufacturing to total national
income rules out the presence of an underlying upward trend.
Income originating in trade is strongly
correlated with demand for goods, and followed quite closely the post-1947 decline in
the ratio of goods output to total production. Trade income rose from 15 percent
of the national income total in 1929 to 19
percent in 1947—then declined to 16 percent in 1957. This postwar decline was
broken only by slight rises in 1949 and 1954
as income from trade in those years weakened less than income from manfuacturing
and certain other industries particularly
affected by the recessions.
Income originating in government—the
compensation of government employees
(including military personnel) —accounted
for 9 percent of the national income in
1947. It moved up irregularly to 12 percent
of the total by 1952, and held approximately at that figure through 1957.
Measuring, as it does, the value of services of government employees, income
originating in government is included
above with the services-associated industries. Obviously, however, the factors bearing on the government component are
basically different from those affecting
service industries in the private area. The
moderate expansion of government services since 1947, and the spectacular growth
since 1929, resulted mainly from the increased responsibilities which the Federal
Government had to assume in the sphere
of national defense.
Income by Type
The industrial shifts just reviewed have
had much to do with changes observed in
the relative importance of the different
types of national income.
The type-breakdown of income is a
classification of earnings, before deduction
of direct taxes, according to the forms
which they take—employee compensation,
profits of corporate and of unincorporated
business, rental income of persons, and net
interest.
ROLE OF INDUSTRY SHIFTS
Shifts in the industrial origins of national
income affect its type-distribution because
the income type pattern generated in production varies widely from industry to industry. Such variations, as already noted,
are associated primarily with interindustry
differences in legal form of organization.
For example, an industry in which the corporate form of organization predominates,
while sole proprietorships and partnerships
are less important, will of course account
for relatively more corporate profits and
less noncorporate business net income than
will an industry in which the roles of these
two legal forms of organization are the
reverse. Even apart from differences in the
legal form structure, the proportions of the
various types of income originating vary
industrially, depending on the relative
amounts of labor and capital used and
many other factors.
The decline in income from agriculture
was an important source of change in the
type-distribution of national income after
World War II. Largely in reflection of this
development, the share of proprietors' income was reduced over this period—from
about one-fifth of the total national income
in the early years to a ratio somewhat in
excess of one-tenth at the end of the period.
A secondary, much less significant, factorin this connection was the decline in the
relative importance of trade—much of the
income from which arises in noncorporate
businesses—from the unusually high fraction of national income which it represented just after the war.
The rise in the government fraction of
national income is another feature of the
postwar industrial pattern which had an
effect on the distribution of income by type.
Since earnings from government enter the
income total in the form of employee compensation only, any expansion is reflected
exclusively in this particular income share.
It may be added that, over the longer
run, the growth in compensation of military and other government personnel has
been the most notable of several developments outside the ordinary business system
which have had a strong impact on the distributive shares of national income. For
many comparisons of the postwar and prewar distributive-share patterns, it is essential that these developments—which we
have traced in other reports, including the
1954 National Income supplement—be
taken into account.
A third marked shift since the end of
World War II was the rise in the percentage of national income consisting of inter-
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
est. This likewise was associated in part
with a change in the industrial structure
of the economy: An expansion in the finance-insurance-real e s t a t e category,
where activity increased with the pace of
capital formation and the growth in the
accumulated stock of capital. (Also important was an increase in interest rates over
the period as a whole; this, however, was
not an industry shift phenomenon.)
The changes in type-distribution noted
have of course not been mutually independent. A rise or fall in any type of income, others remaining constant, tends of
itself to produce a contrary movement in
the percentages of the total accounted for
by the others. The increases in the payroll
and interest fractions have been the larger
because other factors were tending to depress the proprietors' percentage, and vice
versa.
major type of income arising in corporate
business.
After dipping in the recession of 1949,
the profit ratio resumed its advance with
the recovery of early 1950. It reached a
high point shortly thereafter under the influence of the large price and output
advances following the outbreak of hostilities in Korea.
A reaction toward the long-term average followed as the special pressures of the
time subsided. Besides this, the broad
movement apparent in the chart reflects
the 1953—55 cyclical dip and recovery,
with the ratio for 1957 also affected by
the business downturn which came in the
latter part of the year.
The tendency for the profit ratio in the
more recent period to revert toward the
long-term average is clearly evident from
the figures. Setting aside the years most
affected by cyclical conditions, the per-
15
interest-bearing debt declined relatively to
corporate assets and interest rates fell relatively to rates of return on such assets. As a
result, a shift from interest to profits occurred within the property income flow.
Combined, these two snares accounted for
a fraction of total income originating in
corporations which varied between onefourth and one-fifth for the period 1922—
29; the range for the period 1951-57 was
between these same limits.
ROLE OF DEPRECIATION
Profits are obviously hard to measure
with precision. Difficulties associated with
the making of proper allowance for depreciation should be mentioned specifically.
The profit ratios charted here are based
upon calculations employing the depreciation concepts which have been used in corporate tax returns. These are not neces-
SWING IN PROFIT RATIO
Fig. 7
Some of the most notable postwar
changes in the type-distribution of income
are thus seen to have involved industry
shifts which altered the legal form structure of the economy.
There is, however, one other change to
which this generalization does not apply.
A rise in the share of corporate profits in
the early postwar years was followed by a
downdrift—the dollar total showing a
horizontal trend after 1951 while national
income as a whole expanded. This swing
cannot be accounted for in terms of a
changing legal form of organization, for
the same movement appears in the distribution of income from corporate business
taken by itself. Moreover, detailed studies
have shown it to be characteristic of a
broad range of industries, so that a structural shift toward typically lower-profit industries apparently was not a major factor
in it.
The flow of corporate profits is of strategic importance for the functioning of the
economy, both through its role as incentive
to invest and through its influence on the
sources of investment funds, and its swing
in relative magnitude since World War II
deserves further examination.
Figure 7 shows that the share of profits
in total income originating in corporate
business increased from about one-fifth in
1946 and 1947 to a peak above one-fourth
in 1950 and 1951, and then moved downward to cancel the earlier gain.
The initial advance came after war controls had been dropped and as reconversion
from war to peacetime patterns of demand
and production was accomplished. In these
circumstances the relative changes in
prices, wages, and industrial efficiency
were such as to bring about a considerably
sharper advance in profits than in employee compensation, which is the other
Profits and Property Income as Percent of Income
Originating in U. S. Corporations
Percent
* Before tax, and including
inventory
valuation
adjustment
centage for 1952 was below that for 1951; sarily the most appropriate for economic
1956, in turn, was lower than 1952; and analysis. For instance, they reflect changes
this tendency seems to have continued into in the tax laws, such as the special amorti1957. During this period, the relative cost- zation provisions enacted in 1950 and the
price conditions which had been associated legalization of alternative formulae which
with the unusually rapid economic expan- permitted accelerated depreciation under
the Revenue Code of 1954. Profit ratios
sion of the earlier postwar years did not, of
adjusted to eliminate the effects of these
course, persist.
The 35-year perspective afforded by the changes might be higher by one or two
chart shows the profit percentage to have percentage points for 1957, and would
been fluctuating since 1951 in about the show a somewhat different movement over
same broad range as during the 1920's. the past few years. The broad pattern of
downdrift since 1951 which is suggested in
The comparison is even closer in terms of
the fraction represented by property in- the chart would remain, however, and no
come as a whole—including interest as well change in the interpretation of it would
as profits. Over the past several decades, seem to be called for.
16
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
The fact that tax depreciation is based
on original cost values introduces an additional element that requires consideration, especially in problems involving
longer-term comparisons. For many objectives of economic analysis, it would be preferable to value depreciation in terms of
current replacement cost. Generally speaking, this change of method would raise
depreciation and reduce profits relatively
more in the postwar period than during
the 1920's. It is believed, however, that the
effect on the ratio of profits to total income
originating in corporate business would be
moderate. If, in addition, we take account
of the tendency of the special tax provisions to lower the profits measure in recent
years relative to prior periods, it would
seem reasonably certain that the conclusions drawn above as to the basic trend of
the profit ratio are independent of the
particular characteristics of the depreciation measure.
War. The termination of hostilities in
1953 was followed by a cut in effective
rates, the excess profits tax expiring at the
end of that year.
For the postwar period as a whole, average effective rates of Federal and State
profits taxes combined have ranged from a
1947-1948 low of less than two-fifths to a
Korean peak above 50 percent. These figures are much higher than any recorded
prior to World War II. The average for
1922-29 was less than 15 percent.
The disposition made of after-tax profits
since the war has also differed considerably from that of the prosperous 1920's,
and has reflected the shift in corporate
financing toward greater reliance upon internal funds. In general, the fraction paid
out in dividends has been markedly lower,
and that retained higher, than a generation ago. The payout ratio has moved up
considerably from year to year during the
more recent period, however, as was described in the section dealing with corporate finance.
DISPOSITION OF PROFITS
The movement of corporate profits actually realized after taxes has reflected the
course of before-tax earnings as discussed
above, together with the changes in tax
rates. The latter, in turn, have been dependent upon the fiscal requirements of
the government, especially in connection
with its national defense responsibilities.
Corporate taxes were sharply reduced at
the end of World War II, and increased
again to meet the needs of the Korean
POSTWAR CYCLICAL
DEVELOPMENTS
While one of the outstanding features of
the postwar period has been the vigorous
uptrend in business activity, the economy
has been subject to periods of cyclical
fluctuations with recessions occurring in
1948-49, 1953-54, and 1957-58.
These recessions were mild. There was
Fig. 8
Gross National Product in Current and
Constant Dollars
no repetition of the serious cyclical disturbance which ensued shortly after World
War I, when total output dropped by 9
percent from 1920 to 1921, manufacturing
activity was off by 25 percent in the same
period, and unemployment in the latter
year averaged over 10 percent of the labor
force. The postwar recessions were rather
of the same order as the more moderate
contractions of the 1910's and 1920's, and
substantially milder than the downturn in
1937—38 when the economy moved sharply
lower despite the incomplete nature of the
previous recovery from the deep 1930-32
depression.
In this concluding section of the chapter, we shall trace the cyclical patterns of
the postwar period as they have thus far
emerged, bringing out their dimensions
and timing and the major forces contributing to the upswings and downturns. The
national income and product data which
will be relied upon for this purpose include not only the familiar quarterly figures on gross national product and national income, but also the newly developed quarterly series for GNP in constant:
dollars and other new breakdowns of the
current-dollar data.
The new quarterly information on real
GNP is a valuable supplement to the current dollar figures. By abstracting from the
influence of price changes, it makes possible
a comprehensive view of short-term fluctuations in real output and the underlying
elements of real demand. There is now
available a rounded picture of quarterly
productive activity in terms of currentdollar GNP, constant-dollar GNP, and the
prices at which output is valued.
The quarterly series for real GNP and
the implict price indexes are shown in
tables 1-5 and VII-3 of the Statistical
Section. These tables have been computed
with 1954 prices as a base. Because the
recent level of prices furnishes a more familiar reference point, the figures have
been converted to a 1957 base for present
purposes and are shown in Table 9 at the
end of this chapter.
The quarterly movements of currentand constant-dollar GNP over the postwar
period are traced in Figure 8. The similarity of the broad patterns of change is
clearly apparent. There are, however, significant differences in the movements of
the two series; those bearing specifically
upon the interpretation of the postwar
business cycles will be noted in the following review.
RISE IN PRICES
I i i i 111
i 11i i 11i i 11i 111
1947 48
49
50
51
i 11 i i 1 1 i i 11 t i 1 1 1
52
53
54
55
i 1 1 i 1111
56
57
QUARTERLY TOTALS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AT A N N U A L *RATES
1 1 1 1 1 i
58
59
The spread between the current-dollar
and constant-dollar values of gross national product reflects, of course, the advance in prices which prevailed over much
of the postwar period, and which made for
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
a generally more pronounced upward
movement in the current-dollar line. The
impact of inflation was largest in the years
immediately after the war, when controls
were lifted and costs and prices were
brought into a new alignment. More than
one-half of the entire postwar price increase occurred in the 1946-48 period,
when extraordinary demands placed a severe strain on productive capacity.
The postwar period featured two other
pronounced upward movements in prices.
One was associated with the Korean conflict; the other occurred during 1956 and
1957. As can be seen from the chart, comparative stability prevailed in the period
1952-55, although the general average of
GNP prices edged upward. This experience reflected the better adaptation of supply to demand after the Korean buildup, as
discussed later; the dampening effects of
the 1953-54 downturn; and the offsetting
movements during the period in the agricultural and industrial components entering the final price structure. By early 1956,
agricultural as well as other prices were on
the upgrade in a general setting of buoyant demand, high output, and rising production costs.
It is noteworthy that in the past decade
there was an almost total absence of downward pressures on the general price level.
Even in the two most recent recessions,
prices edged forward. (See Figure 9.) A
moderate downward movement was registered in the 1948-49 period concurrent
with the break in agricultural prices in
early 1948.
regular swings which importantly influenced short-term movements in total activity—at times countering changes in
private spending and at others reinforcing
them.
Purchases by State and local governments m the past decade were an almost
steady orce for stability and growth.
The huge volume of demand for consumer nondurables and services also rose
Fig. 9
General Price Level
Changed Little in
Postwar Recessions
Quarterly Price Deflators for GNP
DIFFERING DEMAND PATTERNS
Figure 10 shows on a quarterly basis significant groupings of aggregate real demand. The semilog, "ratio" scale used for
plotting purposes facilitates direct comparison of percentage changes, in contrast to
the preceding GNP chart which gives
equal weight to dollar changes regardless
of absolute size of the measured item.
In the second line are grouped those demand elements which historically have
been sensitive to cyclical influences: business investment (construction expenditures, purchases of producers' durable
equipment, and changes in business inventories) , purchases of consumer durable
goods, and foreign market demand as
measured by the net export balance. The
combined demand for these items was
cyclically sensitive also in the postwar period, although, as pointed out below, there
were notable exceptions within the group
which at times dampened the cyclical
movement of the combined total.
Federal Government purchases are
shown separately. Dominated by the requirements of national defense, this large
segment of demand exhibited wide and ir
17
By 1948, however, these effects were
largely worked off. A better balance between supply and demand emerged, and
the price rise tapered. This was brought
about partly through an appreciable expansion of real output and partly through
a diminution in the intensity of some of
the demands, including those from abroad,
from which the greatest pressures had
emanated.
With these signs presaging a slowdown
in the pace of economic activity, three actions on the part of the Federal Government provided a fillip to production during 1948.
First, Federal income taxes on individuals were cut in the spring of 1948, adding
to the strength of consumer markets at a
time when some slackening, especially in
real volume, had become apparent.
Second, grants made under the newly
introduced Marshall Plan helped to stabilize the foreign market which had been
sliding since mid-1947.
Third, an increased defense program
was announced, and this was the major
factor in a strong upward movement of
Federal purchases during 1948. With Federal receipts tending lower as a result of
the tax cut and with expenditures moving
higher, the Federal Government impact on
the economy was strongly expansionary in
1948, in contrast to the moderating influence which had been exerted in earlier
postwar years.
A gradual rise in State and local government purchases reinforced the expansionary influence of Federal Government
activities.
RISE IN DEMAND TAPERS
steadily and was subject to only minor
cyclical fluctuations. This demand and
State and local purchases together accounted for two-thirds of real gross national product in 1957.
The 1948-50 Movements
The peak of total business activity during the first business cycle after World War
II was reached in the final months of 1948.
As already indicated, strong inflationary
pressures which had been prevalent since
1941 dominated also most of the postwar
period leading up to that peak. With the
physical volume of production pressing
against capacity, much, if not most, of the
pressure exerted by intensive consumer,
business, and foreign buying was reflected
in price movements. The effects on prices
of the pent-up demands engendered by the
war and of the purchasing power created
by expansionary wartime financing had
been restrained for a time, but were manifested in the price level with particular
force during this period.
The cresting of real output in 1948 was
due to the leveling of demands in the private economy.
At the cyclical peak in the fourth quarter of that year, the combined total of
personal consumption expenditures, fixed
investment, and net exports—a sum representing private final demand—was in real
terms fractionally below the corresponding
quarter of 1947, though up by 4 percent
in current dollars.
This movement in real purchases was
the net result of divergent changes in individual markets. Net exports in late 1948,
although supported by the Marshall Plan,
were much lower than in 1947. Real purchases of consumer durable goods and
dwellings reached peaks in the spring and
summer months, and by the fourth quarter
were moderately below year-before levels.
On the other hand, consumer expenditures
for services moved higher throughout
1948.
The remaining private real demand elements—consumer purchases of nondurables and business investment in construe-
18
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
tion and equipment—were virtually stable
throughout the year.
The expansion of final real demand during 1948 thus stemmed wholly from government. In part because of this shift,
much of the expansion centered in services, and the rise in commodity demand
flattened out. With this development, and
the increase in the productive capacity of
the economy, substantial inventory accu-
in the final quarter of 1948, business expenditures on nonresidential construction
and producers' durable equipment fell by
about one-sixth during the ensuing year.
The reduction was especially pronounced
in manufacturing, but nonmanufacturing
industries were also affected. (See Figure
11.) The principal exception was afforded
by public utilities, with gas companies
showing steady expansion and electrical
Fig. 10
manufacturing, which supplies most of the
goods which compose the Nation's inventory holdings. Since the fall-off in fixed investment demand was principally in producers' durable equipment—also made
primarily in manufacturing establishments—it is apparent that factory output
bore the brunt of the decline in aggregate
production. Compared with the moderate—2 percent—decline in real GNP
from the fourth quarter of 1948 to the second quarter of 1949, the fall in manufacturing output amounted to almost 10 percent, and was especially sharp in the durable-goods industries.
Gross National Product in Constant Dollars
Quarterly Fluctuations in Major Markets Differ Widely
Billion 1957 Dollars (ratio scale)
QUARTERLY TOTALS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AT ANNUAL RATES
mulation appeared. This had been prevented in 1947 by a general excess of
demand over supply.
It may be noted that total current-dollar
GNP in the final months of 1948 was
almost 9 percent above the last quarter of
1947. Roughly two-thirds of this rise reflected higher prices; total real output was
up by about 3 percent. Most of this increase
in volume had been achieved by the summer of 1948.
BUSINESS INVESTMENT OFF
The 1948-49 downturn centered in
business fixed investment and inventories.
From a high annual rate of $30 billion
utilities maintaining their fixed capital outlays throughout 1949.
With the shift in the final demand picture, business adopted more cautious buying policies in the latter part of 1948, but
inventory accumulation continued at a
substantial rate in the final quarter of the
year. After holding even in the first quarter of 1949, inventories were reduced
sharply in the second and liquidation proceeded at irregular rates during the remainder of the year.
Inventory liquidation was by far the
largest item in the decline of national output from the fourth quarter 1948 peak to
the second quarter 1949 trough. This
liquidation had a particular impact on
STRENGTH OF CONSUMER BUYING
Private demands other than business investment held up extremely well in 1949.
After hesitating in the first quarter of
1949, real consumption moved up steadily
and by the fourth quarter was 4 percent
above the same period of 1948. The current-dollar rise was smaller, as prices of
commodities—especially of nondurables—
declined throughout the year.
The strength of consumer spending in
1949 was due in large measure to the fact
that the disposable income of individuals
held up much better than total output.
Whereas gross national product was reduced by about $10 billion on an annual
rate basis from the fourth quarter of 1948
to the second quarter of 1949, the drop in
disposable income during this period was
only $4 billion. This differential movement
was attributable to several factors: The
payment of sizable unemployment compensation benefits, the reduction in payments of Federal individual income taxes
as a result of the previous year's legislation,
and the maintenance of dividend payments to individuals notwithstanding a sizable fall in corporate profits.
Of comparable importance was the willingness of consumers to spend increasing
proportions of their available income—a
fact reflected in the steady cutting of personal saving from a 1948 peak of over $14
billion (annual rate) in the third quarter
of that year to $5 billion by the final quarter of 1949.
HOUSING REBOUNDS
Residential construction outlays decreased 15 percent from the spring of 1948
to a low point one year later. By the middle of 1949, they were moving upward
again, and in the final quarter the real
volume of building was one-eighth higher
than a year earlier.
Tightening of money markets and reduced availability of the more liberal kinds
of mortgage financing—Government supported—were influences in the softening
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
>f housing demand in early 1948. A reversil of these influences in 1949, following
he reduction in business investment denands upon capital markets and the easing
Df credit policies, was undoubtedly important in the quick turnabout of building
activity.
Government demand, which had moved
forward throughout 1948, continued to be
Government. The net export balance
showed an improvement as the domestic
recession lowered import demand.
RECOVERY IN EARLY 1950
It became apparent in the second half
of 1949 that the curtailment of output had
been excessive in relation to the existing
19
comes, adding further impetus to consumer
purchasing. A business upswing of substantial dimensions was under way and was
carrying the economy toward full-capacity
operation. By the first quarter of 1950, the
volume of national production had moved
2 percent above its previous high.
The 1953-55 Decline and
Recovery
The second cyclical peak in total output
was reached in the spring of 1953, capping
a steady expansion in dollar and real output which had started with the recovery
from the 1948-49 recession.
KOREAN WAR BACKGROUND
a strong expansionary force in 1949. Federal purchases leveled off at the high rate
which had been reached at the end of
1948, with farm price-support outlays an
important sustaining influence. State and
local government spending rose uninterruptedly during 1949, and was the major
factor in the further growth of total government demand in that year.
Foreign trade was a supporting influence in 1949. Exports were approximately
maintained for the year as a whole, largely
because of expanded foreign aid by the
stable volume of business sales. Accordingly, in early 1950 production was stepped
up, and the accumulation of inventories
was resumed. Meanwhile, the recovery of
residential construction had grown into a
sustained building boom, and consumer demand, already strong, was being bolstered
by large Government payments to veterans.
These factors, moreover, were being reinforced by a renewed upturn in business
fixed investment.
This widening resurgence of production
generated increases in employment and in-
Recovery from this recession was strongly
reinforced by the requirements of the
Korean conflict which erupted at midyear.
The defense program that evolved provided not only for a sharp step-up in the
direct military potential, but also for the
establishment of a broad base of productive
facilities to permit prompt economic mobilization in case of full-scale war.
Federal purchases turned up quickly
and entered a prolonged phase of rapid expansion. By the fall of 1951, they had
more than doubled and, still on the upgrade, were absorbing a much enlarged
share of total output.
In addition, purchases of the consuming
public moved upward sharply through
early 1951, with some bunching in the
scare buying waves of the summer of 1950
and the opening months of 1951.
Superimposed on these expanding final
demands was a rapid buildup of business
inventories. The increase which occurred
in the 12-month period ended September
1951 was by far the largest on record for
an annual interval.
Although total output rose briskly, these
huge demands outstripped the supply of
goods. Strong inflationary tendencies reasserted themselves, with the general average of final-product prices increasing
almost 10 percent in the year after the
start of the Korean conflict.
Around the middle of 1951., the economic situation changed significantly. Output continued to expand at a rapid rate,
and it became apparent that the production potential of the Nation had. been underestimated. Taxes had been raised, and
the establishment of price, wage, and other
economic controls afforded some assurance
that inflation would be kept in check.
As a consequence of these developments, and of the well-stocked position of
individuals after several months of extraordinarily heavy buying, there was a marked
easing in the urgency of consumer demand. This was paralleled by a curtail-
20
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
ment of business buying which entailed a
very substantial inventory readjustment—
with a notable scaling down in the accumulation of civilian goods.
In this setting, it was possible to achieve
a further substantial expansion in national
defense expenditures and allied fixed capital outlays concurrently with a high rate of
Civilian demand increased, particularly
in the durable goods lines previously restricted by controls and material shortages.
Residential, institutional, and State and
local construction, business investment in
plant and equipment other than in defenseconnected industries, and consumer and
inventory demand for automobiles and
reflected developments in final demand.
On a real basis, the rise in consumer expenditures, particularly for goods, tapered
sharply in the first two quarters of 1953
and substantial stability characterized busi ness fixed investment, residential construction, net exports, and State and local government purchases. Some further increase
in Federal outlays helped to sustain aggregate demand in this period, but a sizable
cutback in them was foreshadowed by the
January 1953 budget message.
Fig. 12
Postwar Downturns in
Plant and Equipment Expenditures
QUARTERS-SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED
* Third quarter for 1958 anticipated in August reports to SEC-OBE
civilian consumption and a diminution of
inflationary pressures. From mid-1951 to
mid-1952, the rise in the general price level
was limited to 2 percent.
In the third year of the Korean conflict—from mid-1952 to mid-1953—the
Nation's capacity to produce continued to
expand substantially while the rate of
growth in national defense outlays tapered
off. This shift in the relation of supply and
demand permitted the relaxation and subsequent removal of economic controls.
other durable goods all contributed to a
spurt in economic activity.
From the second quarter of 1952 to the
corresponding period of 1953, gross national product increased 8 percent. Virtually all of this gain was in real output as
prices on an overall basis changed but little.
The bulk of this increase in real output
occurred in the earlier part of the period.
As the economy approached a cyclical peak
in mid-1953, there was a noticeable slackening in the rate of expansion. This mainly
BUSINESS TURNS DOWN
From the second quarter 1953 high of
$369 billion, the annual rate of gross national product receded almost 3 percent to
a low of $359 billion in the second quarter
of 1954. The decline in real output was
somewhat larger, almost 4 percent.
The onset of the business downturn was
manifested in a shift from inventory accumulation to liquidation. In essence, this
shift was a result of the changing demand
situation—the leveling of private purchases
and the altered picture for Federal spending.
Following several quarters of sizable accumulation which had served to replenish
stocks of civilian-type goods, inventories
held almost even in the third quarter of
1953 and were liquidated on a large scale
in the fourth. This turnabout, which was
concentrated in the hard-goods industries,
accounted for almost the entire drop in
gross national product in the second half
of 1953. Stocks continued to be drawn
down through most of 1954, but the pace
of liquidation was fairly uniform and thus
exerted no further downward pressure on
business activity.
The major element of decline in final
demand was Federal purchases. These were
reduced with the cutback in defense spending after the end of the Korean war. The
reduction, centering in the procurement of
hard goods, was moderate in the latter part
of 1953 but quite sharp in the first half of
1954. The contraction from the $59 billion
annual rate reached in the spring of 1953
amounted to $12 billion, and further small
decreases occurred in the latter half of
1954. In an evaluation of the impact of
Federal Government operations upon the
economy in this period, account should also
be taken of tax reductions and other fiscal
and financial measures discussed below.
Business outlays for fixed facilities constituted the other element of decline in final
demand during the recession. However, the
downdrift in these outlays from mid-1953
to the low point in the fourth quarter of
1954 was moderate in the aggregate.
As shown by the two charts on plant and
equipment, Figures 11 and 12, changes in
fixed capital expenditures varied consider-
21
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
ably by industry. There were pronounced
reductions in the iron and steel and nonferrous-metals manufacturing industries;
elsewhere, declines which occurred were of
generally smaller proportions, and some industries continued to expand their capital
outlays, running counter to the overall
trend.
SUSTAINING INFLUENCES
While these changes were occurring,
other demands for output were a major
sustaining influence on total business activity.
Consumer expenditures showed a dip—
concentrated in durable goods—in the
fourth quarter of 1953 and thereafter advanced steadily. Residential building activity was stable throughout the business
downturn and began to move up strongly
by the middle of 1954. Purchases by State
and local governments increased substantially during the recession, and foreign markets were a supporting force.
An easing of credit conditions helped
to maintain aggregate demand in the
1953-54 recession. Reflecting in part the
lessened requirements of business for outside funds and in part the positive policies
of Federal authorities, interest rates fell and
the terms of borrowing improved. This
change in the credit situation was especially
important for the housing market, and also
affected State and local government demand.
DISPOSABLE INCOME RISES
More powerful in their sustaining effect
on business activity were the forces that
cushioned disposable incomes and thereby
provided a support for consumer spending.
In the face of a $10 billion drop in the
annual rate of GNP from peak to trough,
the quarter-to-quarter flow of disposable
personal income at no time turned downward. In fact, over this span—from the
second quarter of 1953 to the corresponding quarter a year later—disposable income
actually went up by $2 billion, at annual
rates. Several developments accounted for
these divergent movements.
As has been indicated, the decline in
output centered in durable goods, and
therefore had its principal impact upon
manufacturing a n d transportation, in
which the corporate form of organization
predominates. With employee compensation relatively well maintained, the bulk of
the drop in corporate production and income was reflected in before-tax profits.
However, the fall-off in profits on an
after-tax basis was cushioned by a sharp
reduction in tax liabilities, stemming not
only from the shrinkage in the tax base,
but also from the abolition of the excess
profits tax at the start of 1954. In addition,
corporations were in a position to increase
dividend pay-out ratios since in the previous period undistributed profits had been
relatively high. Dividend disbursements to
individuals were accordingly maintained.
In shoft, incomes distributed by business
fell much less than the value of business
production. Income receipts of individuals,
moreover, were bolstered by an increase in
transfer payments, mainly in the form of
unemployment insurance benefits. Further
adding to the disposable income of individuals was a substantial reduction in the
rates of Federal individual income taxation, which became effective in early
1954.
As in 1948-49, consumers spent increasing proportions of their disposable income
during the recession period. This was reflected in personal saving which, after having risen temporarily in the fourth quarter
of 1953, tended downward during 1954.
This independent strength of consumer demand reinforced the supportive effect of
disposable income upon aggregate activity.
UPTURN IN LATE 1954
During the first three quarters of 1954,
the expansion of consumer expenditures,
residential building, and State and local
government purchases roughly offset the
continuing cutbacks in Federal spending.
More broadly, this expansion provided the
foundation for an atmosphere of business
confidence—manifested, for example, in
the strength of the stock market—which
contributed to the near stability of business
investment in this period.
This setting of overall business stability
and confidence was a major factor in the
resumption of inventory accumulation
around the turn of the year, after several
quarters of liquidation had brought stocks
into better adjustment with current sales.
Around the same time, total final demand
turned up as the decline in Federal purchases leveled out.
The business recovery which thus got
underway received special impetus from a
spurt in automobile demand and output.
This was a major element in the upsurge
of economic activity both in the final quarter of 1954 and the first quarter of 1955.
Over this two-quarter span, two-fifths of
the rise in total output was accounted for
directly by purchases of automobiles for
consumption and business purposes and
accumulations of automobile inventories
in manufacturing and trade.
Subsequently, the base of the recovery
broadened. The economy continued to
benefit from the pervasive influence of the
high level of automobile production, but
expansion was provided by other markets,
notably private investment expenditures
for construction and equipment and consumer expenditures other than for automobiles. Inasmuch as Federal purchases
were maintained at their reduced level
during 1955, and State and local purchases went up only moderately, virtually
the entire economic expansion stemmed
from the growth of private demands.
The upswing of activity that started in
the fall of 1954—after the economy had
remained close to its recession low during
the first three quarters of the year—was
one of the most vigorous on record. By the
first quarter of 1955, real output had
passed the previous cyclical peak of the
spring of 1953, and in the final quarter exceeded it by 7 percent.
Absorption of the unused resources and
additional capacity that had become available in the recession made for an exceptionally rapid expansion of production
through the first half of 1955, with the
general price averages advancing only
moderately. During the latter months of
that year the production growth rate slackened somewhat with the economy's approach to peak-volume operation and, concurrently, price pressures intensified.
The 1957-58 Swing
A brief review of the key developments
that followed the 1955 cyclical recovery
and projected the economy to new highs
in income and output will provide background perspective on the downturn in the
latter part of 1957.
Economic expansion during 1956 was
characterized by divergent and partly offsetting tendencies in demand and supply.
Business demands for fixed capital were
intense, continuing the strong upward
movement that had been resumed in early
1955. In some lines, these demands outstripped the economic resources—productive capacity, materials, and labor—that
were available to meet them. The strong
investment climate of 1956 was manifested
Table 7.—GNP and Final Purchases, Selected
Quarters, 1955-57
(Seasonally adjusted at annual rates)
Quarter
GNP
Implicit
(bilprice
lions of deflator
dollars) (1957=100)
Billion J> of 1957dollars
ONP
Inven- Final
purtory
change chases
IV, 1955
409
94
435
8
427
IV, 1956
430
98
441
5
436
I, 1957
11,1957
III, 1957
436
441
446
99
100
101
442
443
442
1
3
2
441
440
440
22
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
also in a continuing substantial buildup of
inventories.
Foreign trade contributed to the further
business advance in 1956, with export demand up strongly during the year. Mirroring primarily the uptrend in State and
local purchases, government demand was
also an expansionary influence.
On the other hand, weaknesses developed in some other markets. Most notably,
automobile demand fell sharply from the
abnormal high reached in 1955; and residential building, which also had contributed to the upsurge in 1955, receded
moderately, partly because of tighter credit
conditions. The market for consumer durables other than autos was generally sluggish, with purchases of some types of
household goods below 1955.
With the economy operating on a very
high plane, the growth of real output
within the year 1956 was of course less
than that realized during the period of
cyclical recovery from the 1954 low. The
1956 output rise was further limited by the
demand-supply i m b a l a n c e s indicated
above. In some industries, where demands
were particularly urgent, production was
restricted by supply considerations; in
others, where supplies were potentially
ample, it was held down by a lack of
demand.
Reflecting an overall demand that was
extraordinarily high in spite of spot weaknesses, and was accompanied by generally
increasing unit-production costs, there was
a sharp upturn in prices during 1956. The
rise in costs reflected the continued increase in wage rates as well as a spurt in
real labor requirements per unit of output;
the latter stemmed from the general tapering in the output rise and from the imbalances between supply and demand that for
large segments of the economy led to capacity utilization either above or below
optimal rates. Another factor in the costprice situation was a renewal, in early
1956, of the rise in farm prices; these had
been receding for several years.
FACTORS UNDERLYING DOWNTURN
Fig. 13
Postwar Cyclical Changes
In Inventories
1948
1949
1950
QUARTERLY NONFARM TOTALS, SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED, AT ANNUAL RATES
The tenor of business activity was
changing as the economy moved into 1957.
Some easing in the buoyancy of demands
was apparent, and productive capacity to
satisfy them was becoming more ample.
With the improvement in supplies relative
to demand, there was a sharp cutback in
the rate of business inventory accumulation, following the sizable buildup of stocks
which had occurred during 1955 and 1956.
As evidenced mainly by the gradual leveling off in capital expansion programs reported by business, the intensity of demands for plant and equipment slackened.
The further expansion of these massive
outlays through the third quarter of 1957
appears to have reflected the updrift of
capital goods prices.
But changes also emerged in other elements of demand. Among these was the
drop in our export trade from the exceptionally high rate reached early in 1957 by
reason of the Suez crisis and other special
factors—a rate markedly out of line with
the purchasing ability of foreign countries
as derived from our own buying of foreign
goods and services and our capital exports.
Again, weaknesses in the market for consumer durables became more apparent,
with unit sales of automobiles and some
other major items off moderately fr6m
prior levels.
In their effects on the general demand
situation, these several factors were reinforced by the depressing influence of
Government decisions in the spring of 1957
to ease budgetary pressures by cutting back
the future rate of Federal purchasing.
These decisions, which resulted in a sharp
reduction in new Government contracts,
directly affected current business produc-
tion and also dampened the general economic outlook.
By contrast, consumer demand for nondurable goods and services continued to
advance in the period leading up to the
fourth-quarter 1957 downturn. Accounting
for virtually the entire rise in the value of
gross national product from the first to the
third quarters of 1957, it was the dominant
element in the maintenance of record economic activity in that period.
Several factors were instrumental in the
strength of consumer buying. Supplementing the high rate of earnings from production in the spring of 1957 were the initial
disbursements of social security benefits
made to groups that had been brought under coverage by prior legislation. An increase in the willingness of the consuming
public to spend—as evidenced by a declining saving ratio—appears to have been an
additional element. It should also be noted
that, with corporate profits squeezed by
unfavorable cost-price developments, an
exceptionally large part of the additional
amounts spent by consumers in this period tended to flow back to them in the
form of incomes available for spending in
the market for consumer goods and
services.
Table 7 summarizes the course of output, prices, and final demand as these
broad economic variables were shaped by
the developments which have been reviewed. It shows a steady rise in currentdollar GNP, the accompanying rise in
prices, and the gradual flattening in the
real volume of output and final demand.
The stability of final real demand in the
1957 period is particularly noteworthy.
The upward momentum was ended, and
some indications of a cyclical downswing
had emerged.
DECLINE SHARP
The recession which began in the early
fall of 1957 was sharp but uneven in its
incidence and brief. From its peak annual
rate of $446 billion in the third quarter,
GNP fell by 4 / 2 percent to a low of $426
billion in the opening quarter of 1958, and
then firmed in the second. The decline
was somewhat larger in real terms—5J/2
percent—as final product prices continued
to rise on the average.
This reduction in the physical volume
of national output exceeded the peak-totrough movements of 2 percent and 4 percent registered in the 1948-49 and 195354 recessions; common to all of them,
however, was the occurrence of a major
part of the drop in a relatively brief period.
The drop in total output from the third
quarter of 1957 to the first quarter of 1958
was concentrated largely in investment and
investment-type goods. Business invest-
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
ment in plant, equipment, and inventories,
and consumer purchases of durables fell
in the aggregate by nearly one-fourth—
from $90 billion to $69 billion, at annual
rates. The impact of this drop was almost
wholly upon durable-goods industries—a
pattern characteristic of all three postwar
recessions despite the substantial differences among them in the particular markets from which the declines in final
demand stemmed.
DEMANDS FOR OUTPUT VARY
The sharp swing in business inventories
which occurred during the 1957-58 recession reflected the prior leveling or easing of
real demand for important segments of
industry, as well as its concurrent decline.
Of the $7 billion annual-rate decline of
GNP from the third quarter to the fourth,
$5 billion was accounted for by a switch
from inventory accumulation to liquidation. In the first quarter of 1958, the basic
demand factors at work expressed themselves more clearly. A shrinkage in total
final demand contributed about as much
to the further fall of national production
as did the intensified rate at which stocks
were being reduced. Thereafter, final demand firmed, and inventories—continuing
down at somewhat diminished rates—exerted less of a drag on economic activity.
(Inventory fluctuations in the 1957-58 recession, as well as in the two earlier postwar
cycles, are shown in Figure 13.)
Fixed investment tilted down in the
fourth quarter of 1957 and was reduced
sharply in the first quarter of 1958. For the
half year as a whole, the reduction accounted for one-fourth of the drop in
total GNP. The further decline of fixed
investment in the spring quarter was
milder, and business plans for capital outlays reported in the summer of 1958 indicated a firming in the second half of the
year.
The course of our foreign trade, as already indicated, contributed importantly
to the timing of the recent business recession. Down already in the third quarter of
1957 from the high reached early in the
year, exports dropped sharply in the next
half year. Imports, the demand for which
in recent years has been comparatively insensitive to the trend of domestic business,
were well maintained throughout the period.
In contrast to the earlier postwar experience, demand for consumer durables
in the 1957-58 recession underwent a sharp
reduction, with most of it occurring in the
opening quarter of 1958. (See Figure 14.)
The change in the economic climate in the
prior quarter contributed to the magnitude
of the decline as, with economic prospects
uncertain, many large-ticket purchases
were postponed. A 20 percent cut in automobile sales, from a level that had already
been rather disappointing, was the major
underlying event; consumer purchases of
furniture and household equipment were
down also, but less so.
Federal purchases advanced through the
spring of 1957, reaching a quarterly peak
ahead of the general turn in business. A decline in them was foreshadowed by the
sharp fall in orders that accompanied the
cutback in military programs. Purchases
receded slightly in the second half of 1957
before a reversal of military procurement
policy turned them up again in 1958. The
change in forward orders was again sharper
than that which occurred in actual pur-
23
the business adjustments of 1948-49 and
1953-54. Purchases of State and local governments continued to increase without interruption. Housing construction tended
to recover from its prior decline in the first
half of 1957, although subject to special
disturbances stemming from the abnormally severe 1958 winter weather. Consumer
purchases of nondurable goods and services—in contrast to those of durables—
turned up in the first quarter of 1958, after
the nondurables had dipped slightly. Prices
paid by consumers advanced throughout
this period; on a real basis, the dip extended into the first quarter of 1958.
DISPOSABLE INCOME MAINTAINED
Fig. 14
Durable Goods in Three
Postwar Cycles
A major influence supporting the consumer market was the degree to which disposable personal income held up despite
the sharp drop in national output. From
peak to trough, income decreased $4 billion, at annual rates; value of output, $20
billion. This development, as can be seen
from Figure 15, was one which the recent
downturn shared with the preceding postwar recessions, and the chain of causation
was much the same.
Quite briefly, the 1957-58 demand reduction centered in durable goods (including inventory holdings). It hit hardest
industries—notably manufacturing and
transportation—which are primarily corporate. The volatile corporate profits share
bore the brunt of the output decline—falling from $43 billion to $32 billion, at annual rates—but dividend payments to
individuals held stable as part of the fall
in before-tax profits was absorbed by taxes
and part by undistributed earnings. Adding concurrently to the income receipts
of individuals from production was a
mounting flow of Government transfer
payments, reflecting chiefly the automatic
cyclical expansion in unemployment compensation.
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT SUPPORTS
QUARTERLY TOTALS, SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED, AT A N N U A L RATES
chases, and was more indicative of the impact of Federal purchase programs on business activity.
The remaining demands for national
output were well sustained, following a
general pattern that had characterized also
The role of Federal Government receipts
and expenditures in helping to stem the
recent business decline is brought out in
Table 8, which presents these transactions
as they enter the national income accounts.
The outstanding feature of the change
in the Federal fiscal position from the 1957
peak in business activity to its trough in
the first quarter of 1958 was a decline in
the quarterly tax take amounting to $7
billion at annual rates. This occurred primarily in corporate profits taxes and reflected the cut in the underlying profits
base. In conjunction with the fall in receipts, Federal expenditures showed a rise
of $3 billion, mainly in transfer payments.
24
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
Table 8.—Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income Accounts,
Selected Quarters at Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rates, 1948-58
[Billions of dollars]
IV
II
II
1948
1949
1950
II
III
1953
1954
1955
1957
1958
1958
Receipts
42.6
38.5
47.3
72.3
63.3
71.7
83.3
76.1
76.1
Personal taxes
18.2
16.2
17.3
32.5
29.0
31.3
37.7
36.6
36.5
Corporate profits taxes
11.6
9.2
15.5
21.0
16.1
19.9
21.0
15.4
15.6
Other...
12.8
13.1
14.5
18.8
18.2
20.5
24.6
24.1
24.0
Expenditures
38.8
42.4
39.0
79.4
68.7
68.1
79.9
82.8
86.0
Purchases of goods and services
22.1
22.3
17.2
58.9
47.1
44.7
49.7
49.7
50.7
Transfer payments to persons..
7.4
8.9
10.3
9.5
11.6
12.5
15.9
18.3
20.3
Other
9.3
11.2
11.5
11.0
10.0
10.9
14.3
14.8
15.0
8.3
-7.0
-5.4
3.5
3.4
-6.6
Surplus or deficit (—).-..
3.8
Table 8. In the 1957-58 downturn, Federal authorities took numerous steps to
ease credit conditions and otherwise encourage the use of private purchasing
power. Those relating to credit included
the Federal Reserve Board's lowering of
reserve requirements and rediscount rates
and its open market operations, and the
supporting actions by other Federal agencies engaged in financial activities, especially those bearing on the mortgage
market. In addition, the process of contract
awards for defense and other procurement
was stepped up, as was noted, and the Congress provided higher authorizations for defense and other requirements.
RECOVERY PRONOUNCED
The first of these changes helped to
shield the current buying power of the
private economy from the downward pressure to which before-tax production earnings were subject. The second constituted
a positive supplementation of that buying
power. The combined influence of these
revenue and expenditure changes was mirrored in a shift from a quarterly surplus on
income and product account of $3 billion
at annual rates to a deficit of $7 billion.
Under the influence of increases in both
transfer payments and Government purchases, this deficit rose to $10 billion in
the second quarter of the year.
The table also shows that a similar
mechanism was effective in the two prior
business recessions as well, although its
precise working was affected by differences
in tax and expenditure policies.
In the 1948-49 downturn, when a $4
billion surplus was converted into a deficit
of the same size, the prior cut in the rates
of the individual income tax accentuated
the shrinkage in tax receipts associated
with lower earnings, and provided additional support to disposable personal incomes. A step-up in the foreign assistance
program was another special feature of
this period.
The pattern of automatic tax shrinkage
and expenditure rise was altered drastically
in the 1953-54 downturn. Superimposed
upon the reduction in tax take caused by
the declining tax base were the abolition
of the corporate excess profits tax and
substantial reductions in the individual
income-tax rates. More than offsetting
these autonomous changes on the receipts
side, however, was the large reduction in
Government purchases. Expressing the
combined effect of these developments, receipts and expenditures moved into closer
balance during the second postwar recession, and the quarterly deficit was reduced
from an annual rate of $7 billion to $ 5 / 2
billion during the year of declining business activity.
Taxes and transfer payments, it is important to note, have a stabilizing effect
during periods of recovery also. Mainly
because of the upsurge in the corporate
profits tax base, taxes rose sharply in the
two periods of recovery shown in the table,
and acted as a brake on disposable incomes
available to the private economy. On the
expenditure side, the shrinkage in unemployment insurance benefits provided an
offset to the generally continuing uptrend
in transfers.
The influence of the Federal Government was not confined to the changes in
receipts and expenditures summarized in
Aggregate economic activity firmed in
the second quarter of 1958 as prior demand
declines tapered and prior increases continued or picked up strength.
The further drop in business capital expenditures was comparatively mild; foreign demand leveled out; and consumer
purchases of durables were only fractionally
lower than in the first quarter. Already on
the upgrade by reason of the shift in military procurement policy, Federal purchases
received added impetus from agricultural
price-support operations; Federally aided
transactions in the market for residential
property heralded an increase in construction activity; personal consumption expenditures for nondurables and services
Fig. 15
Consumer Buying Power better maintained than
Output during postwar recessions
QUARTERS-SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND PROGRESS
25
Table 9.—Gross National Product, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, in Constant Dollars, 1947—58
[Billions of 1957 dollars]
1948
1947
1949
Line
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
I
II
Gross national product
300.6
302.7
Persona] consumption expenditures
202.4
206.1
22.9
108.9
70.6
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Gross private domestic investment
New construction
Residential nonfarm.
Other. - -_- -
.._
10
Producers' durable equipment
11
12
Change in business inventories—total
Nonfarm only
13
Net exports of goods and services
14
Government purchases of goods and services
15
Federal
16
State and local
-
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
305.7
311.5
305.0
309.0
316.8
319.3
321.3
316.7
315.4
314.0
319.6
316.5
316.4
207.0
207.1
205.7
208.4
209.3
209.7
210.9
209.6
210.3
214.2
215.4
219.8
214.9
24.2
110.7
71.3
24.6
110.1
72.3
25.8
108. 5
72.8
24.4
109.5
71.8
25.1
109.5
73.7
26.0
109.1
74.2
26.4
108.4
74.9
25.5
110.0
75.4
25.7
109.3
74.6
24.8
110.1
75.4
27.2
110.7
76.3
28.3
109.9
77.2
29.8
111.6
78.4
27.5
110.6
76.8
III
IV
Year
46.7
45.5
45.5
54.3
47.9
53.9
57.3
57.9
56.2
56.4
48.1
41.6
45.8
42.0
44.4
20.8
9.4
11.4
20.7
9.1
11.6
22.8
10.6
12.2
26.3
12.7
13.6
22.5
10.6
11.9
24.8
12.5
12.3
26.1
13.2
12.9
26.0
12.7
13.2
25.1
11.7
13.4
25.6
12.6
13.0
24.1
11.2
12.9
24.2
11.3
12.8
25.4
12.6
12.7
26.9
14.1
12.8
25.2
12.4
12.8
24.9
25.0
25.0
25.6
25.1
26.3
26.2
26.0
26.9
26.4
24.3
23.6
22.4
21.4
22.9
1.0
1.5
-.2
1.9
-2.2
-.2
2.4
3.3
.3
1.6
2.8
2.2
5.1
3.5
6.0
4.5
4.2
3.3
4.5
3.4
-.3
-6.2
-5.0
-2.0
-.9
-6.4
-5.9
-3.7
,-2. 8
9.5
9.7
9.8
7.1
9.0
3.5
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.6
42.0
41.4
43.3
42.9
42.4
43.2
47.9
49.6
51.7
48.1
22.7
21.6
23.1
22.1
22.4
22.2
26.5
27.8
29.6
26.5
19.3
19.8
20.2
20.8
20.0
21.0
21.5
21.8
22.1
21.6
.5
4.1
52.9
29.6
23.3
4.1
3.4
1.5
3.3
54.1
55.0
53.3
53.8
29.8
29.9
27.5
29.2
24.3
25.1
25.8
24.6
1952
1951
1950
Line
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
1
Gross national product
326.7
336.7
351.2
358.6
343.4
361.2
369.0
376.2
376.9
370.7
379.8
379.5
383.2
393.7
384.1
2
Personal consumption expenditures
221.6
225.3
237.2
228.3
228.1
233.8
225.7
228.9
231.3
229.9
231.4
234.3
235.5
242.2
235.8
3
D u r a b l e goods . _ , . _ _ _
N o n d u r a b l e goods
30.4
112.2
79.0
39.1
116.4
81.7
33. 6
113.6
80.9
29.1
113.5
83.1
29.4
115.3
84. 1
29.0
117.2
85.0
30.5
115.6
83.7
29.7
118.7
85.9
33.0
121.4
87.8
60.3
29.8
119.6
86.5
52.6
28.2
120.4
86.8
56.2
29.1
13.9
15.2
29.0
14.0
15.0
29.9
14.7
15.2
29.3
14.1
15.2
Gross private domestic investment
52.4
31.2
113.3
80.8
60.7
63.8
33.7
112.4
82. 1
74.7
63.1
34.6
116.5
82.7
66.8
71.0
65.6
59.3
65.5
28.3
117.7
85.5
60.1
New construction..
_Residential nonfarni
Other
28.5
15.5
13.0
30.6
17.0
13.6
31.8
18.2
13.6
31.5
16.9
14.5
30.8
17.1
13.7
31.1
16.3
14.8
29.6
14.2
15.4
28.9
13.3
15.6
29.4
14.2
15.2
29.0
13.6
15.4
10
Producers' durable equipment
21.1
24.5
26.7
26.4
24.6
24.9
25.5
25.8
28.6
13.4
15.2
25.7
25.5
26.0
26.5
23.2
25.2
25.2
11
12
Change in business inventories—total
Nonfarm only
2.8
2.6
5.6
5.1
5.3
4.4
16.8
15.9
7.6
7.0
10.8
10.0
15.9
15.2
10.9
10.3
5.0
4.5
10.7
10.0
5.0
4.6
-3.0
-3.6
4.0
3.6
5.2
5.0
2.8
2.4
4
5
6
7
8
9
Services
13
Net exports of goods and services
14
Government purchases of goods and services
15
Federal
16
State and local
_ ._
1.9
1.2
-.1
.6
.8
.5
2.5
4.4
4.4
3.0
4.2
3.5
.4
-.6
1.9
50.8
49.5
50.3
55.1
51.4
59.9
69.8
77.3
82.0
72.3
84.0
89.1
91.2
91.7
89.0
24.3
23.1
23.9
28.6
25.0
33.2
42.7
50.1
54.8
45.2
56.7
61.5
63.8
63.9
61.5
26.5
26.4
26.5
26.5
26.5
26.7
27.1
27.2
27.1
27.0
27.3
27.6
27.4
27.8
27.5
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Gross national product
Personal consumption expenditures..
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
_._
Gross private domestic investment
_ . _ __
New construction
Residential nonfarm
Other
10
Producers' durable equipment
11
12
Change in business inventories—total
Nonfarm only
.... _ ._
13
14
_ _ __ _
Net exports of goods and services.
Government purchases of goods and services
15
Federal
16
State and local
_
_ _.
1955
1954
1953
Line
2
57.3
Year
I
II
III
395.9
401.5
391.4
390.0
246.3
247.3
245.6
248.8
33.6
122.4
90.3
34.6
123.0
89.6
32.6
122.1
90.9
1
II
III
IV
401.2
406.1
402.7
246.2
248.5
248,2
34.6
122.9
88.7
35.1
123.9
89.5
35.3
122.9
90.1
Year
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
392.5
400.8
393.9
413.9
422.0
430.5
434.7
425.5
251.5
255,9
250.4
261.7
266.9
273.4
275.4
269.4
33.7
123.4
91.7
33.9
124.6
93.0
35.4
126.4
94.1
33.9
124.1
92.4
39.7
126. 5
95.6
40.9
129.3
96.8
43.4
131.8
98.2
41.8
134.1
99.5
41.4
130.4
97.5
60.1
60.6
58.3
52.2
57.8
53.5
53.7
55.6
59.3
55.7
66.2
70.4
72.4
73.9
70.8
30.6
15.0
15.6
31.1
15.2
16.0
31.2
14.9
16.3
31.4
14.8
16.6
31.1
15.0
16.1
31.5
15.1
16.5
32.6
16.3
16.3
34.0
17.4
16.6
35.5
18.6
16.9
33.5
16.9
16.6
37.7
20.1
17.6
38.3
20.4
17.9
38.5
20.0
18.5
38.0
19.3
18.7
38.2
20.0
18.2
26.7
25.7
26.2
25.7
26.1
24.9
24.3
24.0
23.1
24.1
23.5
25.2
27.5
28.2
26.1
2.8
3.4
3.7
4.5
.9
1.6
-4.9
-4.7
.6
1.2
-2.9
-3.0
-3.2
—3. 6
-2.4
-3.0
.8
.2
-1.9
-2.4
5.0
4.2
7.0
6.3
6.5
5.9
7.7
7.2
6.5
5.9
-.2
c
-.6
.2
-.3
.5
1.5
1.2
3.0
1.7
2.0
1.1
1.8
1.4
1.7
84,0
83.6
95.1
97.6
96.8
97.3
96.7
91.8
86.0
84.2
82.5
86.1
84.0
83.5
82.9
60.9
69.3
68.0
67.8
68.0
61.4
55.1
52.6
50.7
55.0
51.2
50.2
49.6
50.4
50.3
28.3
28.2
28.8
29.5
28.7
30.3
30.9
31.6
31.8
31.1
32.8
33.4
33.4
33.6
33 3
26
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
Table 9.—Gross National Product, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, in Constant Dollars, 1947—58—Continued
[Billions of 1957 dollars]
1956
1957
1958
Line
I
1
2
4
5
()
H
Gross national product _
--
Personal consumption expenditures
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
* .
- --
- -- -- -- -
Gross private domestic investment
New construction
Residential nonfarm
Other
- __ _
-
10
Producers' d urable equipment
11
12
Change in business inventories—total
Nonfarm only
-
13
Net exports of goods and services
14
Government purchases of goods and service*.
1K
Federal
16
State and local
-
- -
moved upward again; and State and local
government outlays expanded further. Inventory liquidation was a little lower than
in the first quarter, and thus contributed to
the improvement in aggregate demand on a
net basis.
By the third quarter, economic recovery
was clearly under way. Reflecting substantial increases in consumption, housing, and
government buying, and a pronounced
slackening in the rate of inventory liquidation, gross national product registered a
sharp advance. Fixed investment outlay
was the only major demand that did not
contribute to the general rise. But, as already noted, the decline had apparently
leveled out and firming tendencies were in
evidence.
The 1957-58 turnabout of GNP was the
quickest on record in the postwar period.
It contrasted with the pattern in 1954,
when output remained low for three
quarters, and with that in 1949, when out-
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
433.2
434.1
435.2
440.9
436.0
441.6
442.8
442.4
434.1
440.3
418.0
4i9.0
428.3
276.4
276.6
276.5
280.5
277.5
282.5
283.5
287.2
284.6
284.4
280.7
281.5
284.7
40.6
135.2
100.6
39.3
135. 6
101.7
38. 5
134.9
103.1
40.2
136.0
104.3
39. b
135.4
102.4
40.5
136.8
105. 2
39.5
137.6
106.4
40.3
139.8
107. 1
39.4
137.7
107. 5
39 9
138.0
106. 5
36 3
136.8
107.7
35 5
137. 7
108.3
35 8
139 9
109 0
73.4
71.7
71.5
70.9
71.8
67.1
67.0
65.9
61.1
65.3
49.4
48.5
52.7
37.4
18.5
18.9
36.9
18.0
18.9
36.9
17.7
19.1
36.9
17.9
19.0
37.0
18.0
19.0
36 9
17.3
19.6
36.0
16.5
19.5
36.3
16.8
19.5
36.7
17.5
19.2
36.5
17.0
19.5
35. 7
17.0
18.7
34 2
16.2
18.0
35 7
17 8
17.9
28.3
28.5
28.9
29.1
28.7
29.1
28.2
27.8
26.3
27.9
22.4
21.8
21.8
7.7
7.7
6.3
6.6
5.8
4.9
4.7
6.2
6.2
1.1
2.8
1.9
1.8
.9
-1.9
-2.7
1.0
.2
-8.7
-8.8
-7.5
-7.6
-4.8
-5.2
1.0
3.3
82.3
82.6
48. 1
48.0
34.2
34.5
5.7
3.7
83.5
48.9
34.6
4.9
3.4
84.6
83.2
49.3
48.6
35.2
34.7
.6
5.7
86.3
50.2
36.1
6.2
4.7
3.0
4.9
1.1
1.1
1.3
86.1
84.6
85.4
85.7
86.7
87.8
89.6
50.2
48.9
48.3
49.4
48.9
49.9
50.9
35.9
35.7
37.1
36.3
37.8
38.0
38.7
put hesitated for two quarters before resuming a steady upward course.
At an annual rate of $439 billion in the
third 1958 quarter, the value of gross national product was $13 billion above the
recession low and had recovered twothirds of the fall from the prior peak
reached a year earlier. Prices having risen
over this period, the increase in real output
had canceled about two-fifths of the previous loss.
Personal income, which at its low point
in February 1958 was only 2 percent under
the August 1957 high, was back up to the
peak by June and continued its strong advance through the summer.
CONCLUDING COMMENT
As this is written in October 1958, we
have a substantial but as yet incomplete recovery following a sharp business decline.
IV
Year
Although personal income has moved
up to a record rate, corporate profits
are still below their earlier high; employment in nonagricultural industries has recovered about one-fourth of its earlier loss,
and unemployment though improving remains a problem in many areas; automobile sales and output are low and a test of
the recovery in demand awaits the availability of the 1959 models, which are only
now beginning to go on display. So the
tracing of the upward phase of the current
business cycle is still a matter for the future.
Again we have had, through the national income accounts, prompt measures
of retrogression and progress which have
given business and Government a comprehensive picture upon which analyses and
actions could be based. This has contributed greatly to knowledge and understanding, which are essential guides to policies
of both action and restraint in the economic sphere.
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE
NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
2. Expansion of
Regional Markets
The growth and structure of regional economic structure. Following these brief
markets in the United States during the profiles, the overall postwar growth of the
postwar period are traced in this chapter regions is summarized by use of aggregate
through OBE's estimates of personal in- and per capita income data in real as well
as in current-dollar terms. Finally, in an
come by States.
Since these estimates cover the current analysis which focuses to a large extent on
income received by individuals from all the industrial sources of income, the shifts
sources, they constitute a major purchas- evidenced by these summary measures are
ing power guide which yields directly a evaluated for the light they shed on basic
geographic breakdown of the broad con- economic developments among the regions
sumer market. Although personal income over the postwar span.
is measured before deduction of income
and other direct personal taxes, these can
ECONOMIC
be excluded in order to derive State estimates of disposable personal income, a
PROFILES
somewhat more precise market measure.
As a complete measure of the income
The personal income data for 1957 reflow to individuals, personal income also
qualifies as an indicator of business ac- veal directly key characteristics of the curtivity and economic growth among regions, rent regional economies and of the geoand provides a particularly valuable frame- graphic markets for goods and services. The
work for relating regional developments to requisite information by States covers both
those on a national scale. The usefulness total and per capita personal income, disof the State income figures as a tool of posable personal income, and breakdowns
economic analysis is enhanced by reason of income and earnings by industrial
of the significant breakdowns which ac- sources.
company the overall totals. The rich array
of underlying detail—in terms of both inFEATURES OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION
dustrial sources and types of income—
facilitates understanding of the individual
Included in Tables 1 and 2 are columns
regional economies.
The State income measures, then, por- showing for 1957 the percentage of natray the dimensions of the regional markets tional personal income received by each
and, more generally, afford a significant State and region and the percentage relaand comprehensive basis for viewing the tionship between its per capita income and
regional economies. They furnish an eco- that of the Nation; also shown are the dolnomic record for the States that is both lar figures on which the percentages are
current and long term, both summary and based. These data bring out two broad features of the geographic distribution of indetailed.
come
in this country.
The ensuing review of these voluminous
First, they are a forceful reminder that,
statistics focuses on highlights—on significant aspects of the current geographic in- irrespective of past and current differencome distribution and of the changes which tials in relative income movements, the inhave occurred in the postwar period..The dividual States and regions vary substanavailable historical record extending back tially in volume of total income. Of the
to the late 1920's is drawn upon for per- 1957 personal income total of $345 billion,
spective, as a background against which to more than two-fifths was accounted for by
five States: New York ($41 billion), Calievaluate the postwar developments.
More specifically, the State income data fornia ($35 billion), Illinois ($24 billion),
are first utilized to delineate present-day Pennsylvania ($23 billion), and Ohio ($21
regional differences in market size and billion). By contrast, five States each re466759 0—59
3
ceived $1 billion or less in personal income—Vermont,
Wyoming,
Nevada,
North Dakota, and Idaho.
Also to be noted is that two regions—
the Mideast and Great Lakes—account for
almost one-half of all personal income;
that Massachusetts, Texas, and California
dominate their respective regional income
Fig. 16
Growth in Income
and Population
27
28
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
totals; and that the five Rocky Mountain
States, though embracing a huge land area,
receive only a little over 2 percent of the
Nation's income.
Second, although the geographic distribution of income reflects mainly the location of population, differentials in per
capita income are wide. By regions, per
capita income ranges from almost one-fifth
above the national average in the Far West
and Mideast to nearly one-third below it
in the Southeast. On a State basis, of course,
the spread in average income levels is much
greater.
As compared with the United States figure of $2,027, per capita personal income
in 1957 varied from $2,821 in Connecticut
to $958 in Mississippi. In Connecticut and
others in the top rank—Delaware, New
York, California, District of Columbia, and
New Jersey—average incomes ranged from
one-fourth to two-fifths above the national
average. In 10 of the 12 Southeastern
States, as well as in North Dakota and
South Dakota, per capita incomes in 1957
were from one-fourth to one-half below
the countrywide average.
DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
The best available measure of the dimensions of geographic markets for consumer
goods and services is furnished by disposable personal income, which defines the individual income flow on an after-tax basis.
Estimates by States and regions are given
in table 11-10 of the Statistical Section for
selected years of the period from 1929 to
1955. While the latter year is the most recent for which tabulations of Federal individual income taxes are presently available
from the Internal Revenue Service on a
State-of-residence basis, the regional estimates of disposable income have been extended here to 1957 by means of the incomplete information at hand.
As shown in the accompanying tabular
comparison, the relative distribution of
disposable income by regions in 1957 was
quite similar to that of total income. Such
Personal and Disposable Income, 1957
Billions of dollars Percent distribution
Per- Dispos- Per- Dispossonal
able
sonal
able
income income income income
United States
New England.,
Mideast
Great Lakes
Plains
Southeast
Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Far West
. .
345.3
302.9
100.00
100.00
22.7
87.9
77.6
27.9
19.7
76.2
67.8
24.9
6.57
25.46
22.46
8.08
6.51
25.11
22.38
8.23
53 1
23.4
7.7
45.0
47 8
20.9
6.8
38.8
15 38
6.79
2.24
13.02
15 78
6.91
2.26
12.82
similarity, which also prevailed in marked
degree on a State basis, was even closer for
1929 and 1947—pointing to the fact that
the relative shifts among regions in disposable income were about the same as those
in the before-tax measure.
The relatively close correspondence between the distributions of personal income
and disposable income is attributable to
the moderate "weight" of personal taxes
in this context. In 1957, taxes absorbed
12/2 percent of personal income in the
United States. Even significant variations
around this nationwide average could—
and did—result in a regional distribution
of income after taxes that in relative terms
differed only moderately from the beforetax distribution.
The foregoing finding of "similarity" between disposable income and personal income is based on a comparison of relationships shown for these two measures between
each area and the United States. For any
particular area, however, the percentage
changes in personal income and disposable
income over the long run differ markedly,
just as they do for the country as a whole;
differences in these changes over the postwar decade, however, are only moderate,
by reason of the fact—noted in Chapter
1—that the national ratio of personal taxes
to personal income did not vary substantially in this period.
BROAD INDUSTRIAL SOURCES
Important to an understanding of the
current regional economies is a knowledge
of their industrial structure. Basic information along this line is to be found in a
breakdown of personal income into the
amounts received by residents of each State
from farming, government, and private
nonfarm industry.
The most striking fact revealed by Table
4 is the wide variation in the percentage
of income received from farming. As compared with 4 percent nationally, regional
proportions range from 1 percent in the
Mideast to 12 percent in the Plains, with
the percentage in the Rocky Mountain
States and the two southern regions varying from 6 to 9 percent. By States, of
course, variations are more extreme—from
1 percent or less in several of the New England and Mideastern States to 20-30 percent in South Dakota, North Dakota,
Iowa, and Nebraska.
Government income disbursements in
1957 formed about one-sixth of all personal income in the United States. Of
the $58 billion disbursed to individuals,
about two-fifths—$23 billion—came from
State and local governments. In 37 States,
the latter element accounted for a fairly
uniform proportion (6-8 percent) of total
income. Therefore, Federal Government
payments introduce the main geographic
differentials in the proportion of personal
income received from government. These,
in turn, stem primarily from the location
of national defense installations, as reflected in payroll disbursements to military
personnel on duty and to civilian employees
of the defense agencies. The remainder of
Federal Government disbursements to residents of the States is distributed throughout
the country rather uniformly in relation
to total income.
Government disbursements bulk largest
in the four regions of the South and West,
where they account directly for about onefifth of total income. The proportion is
smallest—one-eighth—in the Great Lakes
States.
Nationally, 79 percent of personal income in 1957 was disbursed by private
nonfarm industries. The considerable variation around this average—from 88 percent in Connecticut to 51 percent in South
Dakota—reflects chiefly the widely differing importance of farming as a source of
personal income throughout the country.
EXPANSION OF REGIONAL MARKETS
CIVILIAN INCOME BY INDUSTRIES
The breakdown of personal income just
reviewed—farm, government, and private
nonfarm—is as far as one can go in classifying total income in each State according
to industrial source. The private nonfarm
income totals by States cannot be subdivided by industry mainly because of the
lack of information on industrial sources
of dividends and interest.
It is possible, however, to allocate a
large portion of total income—four-fifths
on a national basis—by State and industry.
This portion—termed "civilian income received by persons for participation in current production"—covers, except for
military disbursements, the combined total
of wages and salaries, other labor income,
and proprietors' income. These three flows
can be characterized very largely as the
earnings received by individuals, both employees and self-employed, for their efforts
in current production. Accordingly, Table
5, which shows individuals' earnings in
each industry as a percent of total civilian
earnings in 1957, affords a comprehensive
and meaningful picture of the industrial
structures of the State and regional
economies.
The major fact revealed by examination
of this table is that farming, mining, and
manufacturing account for the bulk of geographic variations in the industrial composition of total civilian earnings. This fact, in
turn, encompasses two others: (a) Despite
their widely differing importance individually, these 3 industries together account for
roughly similar proportions of total civilian
earnings in most areas; and (b) the proportions of aggregate civilian income by
States and regions derived from the other
industrial divisions enumerated in Table
5—singly as well as in combination—are,
on the whole, fairly uniform.
In amplification of this broad characterization of the industrial source patterns
of civilian earnings by geographic areas, the
condensation given below of Table 5 may
prove helpful. It shows for the United
States and each of the eight regions the percentage of total civilian earnings in 1957
received from four groups of industries:
Commodity-producing, distributive, service, and government. In addition to farming, mining, and manufacturing, the commodity-producing group includes contract
construction and "other" (the latter comprised largely of agricultural services, forestry, and fisheries). The distributive
industries consist of wholesale and retail
trade, transportation, and communications
and public utilities. The service category
comprises the services industry proper and
finance, insurance, and real estate. Finally,
the "Government" column in the accompanying tabulation combines the data
shown in Table 5 for Federal civilian and
State and local.
As evidenced by the breakdown of individuals' civilian earnings in 1957, the
industrial structures of the various States
and regions exhibit general correspondence
in the relative importance of commodity
production and distributive, service, and
government activities. The extent of geographic uniformity in the relative impor-
29
tance of the commodity-producing group
of industries (see Figure 20) is fairly rough,
but is none the less significant. It stands
in sharp contrast to the widely varying
emphasis placed upon farming, mining,
and manufacturing within the commodityproducing segment, as depicted in Table
5. And within each of these three major
industries there is further, detailed specialization in production—a fact so widely
Table 1.—Personal Income and Population
Total income
State and region
Amount
(milliens)
1957
Continental United States
New England
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut ..
Mideast
- -
___ _
New York
New Jersey
_ . ..
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
__________
District of Columbia
Great Lakes
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana.
Illinois
Wisconsin
_
_____
_ _
Plains
Minnesota-.
__
Iowa
Missouri
North Dakota. _
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Southeast __ _ __
Virginia _ West Virginia.
__ _
Kentucky
Tennessee . . . _
_ _ ...
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia. _
__ _
_- _
FloridaAlabama.
...
Mississippi
Louisiana _
Arkansas- __
Southwest
_ _
Oklahoma
Texas
New Mexico
Arizona. _ __
Rocky Mountain._
_
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
Utah
Far West___
__
Washington
Oregon
Nevada. _
California
Territory of Hawaii
___.
Population
Percent of continental
United States 1
1929
1947
1950
Percent c h a n g e '
1957
1929 to
1957
1947 to
1957
Number
(thousands)
1957
Percent change 2
1929 to 1947 to
1957
1957
345,272
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
303
83
170,333
40
22,687
8.32
6.89
6.73
6.57
218
74
9,871
21
9
1,568
1,065
626
11,361
1,715
6,352
.56
.38
.26
4.51
.69
1.92
.52
.32
.21
3.48
.60
1.76
.48
.31
.20
3.45
.57
1.72
.45
.31
.18
3.29
.50
1.84
227
231
178
194
188
287
60
73
61
73
52
91
943
572
376
4,866
862
2,252
18
22
5
15
26
41
10
12
6
6
10
14
87, 901
32.06
26.49
26.36
25.46
220
75
36,722
30
14
40,954
14,089
23,327
1,200
6,242
2,089
16.47
4.33
8.79
.28
1.47
.72
12.69
3.84
7.28
.26
1.61
.81
12.43
3.86
7.30
.31
1.67
.79
11.86
4.07
6.76
.35
1.81
.61
190
279
210
400
395
240
71
94
70
140
105
37
15,888
5,627
11,043
438
2,895
831
31
41
14
86
79
72
14
22
8
43
28
-5
77,559
23.61
22.47
22.51
22.46
283
83
35,035
39
20
16, 706
20,748
9,110
23,579
7,416
4.44
6.04
2.30
8.50
2.33
4.67
5.75
2.61
7.22
2.22
4.79
5.72
2.66
7.10
2.24
4.84
6.01
2.64
6.82
2.15
339
301
362
224
271
89
91
85
73
76
7,803
9,200
4,533
9,637
3,862
63
39
41
27
32
28
19
20
15
19
27,913
8.87
8.85
8.80
8.08
268
67
15,309
15
14
75
69
76
11
45
68
60
3,321
2,799
4,255
644
702
1,452
2,136
29
14
17
-4
2
6
14
19
12
11
11
17
15
15
87
37,193
37
16
6,145
5,056
8,256
924
1,075
2,640
3,817
1.80
1.66
2.66
.30
.34
.95
1.16
1.86
1.58
2.49
.44
.39
.83
1.26
1.86
1.68
2.53
.35
.35
.86
1. 17
1.78
1.46
2.39
.27
.31
.76
1.11
299
256
263
265
273
226
282
53,088
11.67
15.03
15.17
15.38
431
19
6,302
3,071
4,172
4,791
5,924
2,796
5,407
7,522
4,171
2,093
4,804
2,035
1.23
.93
1.19
1.15
1.22
.55
1.18
.88
1 00
.67
1.01
.66
1.73
1.02
1.26
1.47
1.78
.82
1.53
1.54
1 24
.74
1.20
.70
1.78
.98
1.26
1.46
1.82
.83
1.56
1.61
1 18
.71
1.30
.68
1.82
.89
1.21
1.39
1.72
.81
1.57
2.17
1 21
.61
1.39
.59
498
287
309
388
466
495
433
899
387
267
455
261
92
59
75
73
76
80
87
159
78
50
111
54
3,797
1,976
3,040
3,463
4,498
2,370
3,779
4,098
3,151
2,185
3,068
1,768
57
15
17
33
44
36
30
184
19
9
47
-5
16
5
8
9
19
19
16
61
7
4
19
-4
23,438
4.97
6.25
6.50
6.79
451
98
13,381
49
24
3 687
16, 364
1,399
1,988
1 26
3.21
.20
.30
1 14
4.41
.30
.40
1 11
4.61
.35
.43
1 07
4.73
.41
.58
242
495
718
683
70
96
143
165
2,277
9,138
830
1,136
4.
59
98
164
7
24
43
74
7,731
1.88
2.23
2.23
2.24
379
84
4,146
53
30
64
60
69
102
93
666
640
316
1,673
851
27
43
42
66
68
26
23
23
35
34
1 263
1,043
644
3,339
1,442
36
.26
.18
.75
.33
41
.35
.20
.87
.40
42
.34
.21
.86
.40
37
.30
.19
.96
.42
305
364
326
420
408
44,955
8.62
11.79
11.70
13.02
508
102
18,680
130
37
397
423
719
539
74
63
151
111
2,722
1,769
267
13, 922
75
87
197
152
22
30
79
40
52
603
5,792
3,385
647
35 131
1,098
1.36
.75
.09
6 42
1.76
1.09
. 14
8 80
1.77
1.09
.14
8 70
1.68
.98
.19
10 17
. oo
.31
.32
1. Computed from data in table II-8, Statistical Section.
2. Based on data from U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
16
30
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
known as not to require statistical confirmation. Notable examples include the geographic concentration of automobile, textile, and tobacco manufactures; the limited
areas of petroleum and gas mining; and
the production of citrus fruits, beef cattle,
cotton, tobacco, and wheat in sections determined almost entirely by soil and
weather conditions.
ONE NATIONAL ECONOMY
It is believed that these two broad features—commodity-production specialization on the one hand, and generally similar
importance of distributive and service
(including government) pursuits on the
other—provide a significant view of the
geographic economies of the United States.
They depict these economies as highly
interdependent, linked to each other by a
complex network of commodity and service flows. Further, they support a general
view of the United States as a single "national economy" comprised of comple-
Percent of Total Civilian Earnings, 1957
Commodity- Distribproducutive
ing
indusindustries
tries
United States.
New England-.
Mideast
Great Lakes
Service
industries
Government
45
28
16
11
Plains
48
42
53
45
24
28
25
30
18
19
14
15
10
11
g
10
Southeast.- - .
Southwest
Rocky Mountain,...
Far West
43
41
40
40
28
30
31
28
16
17
15
19
13
12
14
13
mentary, interrelated regional economies—
rather than as a "weighted average" of
separate regional economies having a high
degree of independence and passing
through individually distinct stages of economic structure (as delineated here by the
4-way grouping of industries).
Bearing significantly on this point, it is
to be noted that the profound economic
changes of the past quarter of a century—
featuring a vast growth in real national
output and shifts in its composition—have
had relatively little impact on geographic
differences in the broad industrial source
patterns of income. In 1929, as well as in
1957, both specialized commodity-production and distributive and service activities
were of roughly similar importance
throughout the country.
These features of regional income patterns in the United States—specialized
commodity production and similar emphasis upon distribution and service—are
attributable to numerous factors. Among
them are the location and character of
natural resources, mobility of labor and
capital funds, common institutions and
laws, and access to broader regional and
national markets made possible by the
absence of trade barriers and by highly
developed systems of transportation and
'communication.
The close economic interlink of geographic areas in this country is indicated
also by an interesting tally of year-to-year
changes in personal income by States since
1929. This shows that in every year in
which the change in personal income
(either total or per capita) on a national
basis has been appreciable the direction
of change has been the same in all or a
very large majority of the individual
States. It would seem to be clearly indicated
that the major stimulus of economic forces
in the United States is national rather than
geographic in scope and origin.
This characterization of the relation between the national and regional economies
of the United States is not, of course, at
variance with two well-known facts: That
the regions can, and do, exhibit differing
overall rates of economic growth, as our
income measures clearly reveal; and that
the national economy can, and does, derive strength from the effective utilization
and development of human and material
resources in the several regions. For if the
basic stimulus, or climate, of economic
forces in the United States is national in
scope, economic growth in the country as
a whole must perforce reflect the character
of regional responses to it.
SUMMARY OF
GROWTH
Over the period from 1947 to 1957,
personal income in real terms showed an
expansion of nearly one-half on a national
basis—about the same as that which occurred in the physical volume of gross national product. Translated to a per capita
basis, the income rise over the decade
amounted to more than one-fifth.
Through the availability of specially
compiled price indexes, it is possible to
adjust the State income estimates for
EXPANSION OF REGIONAL MARKETS
changes in consumer prices, and thus to
determine geographic differences in the
relative growth of real income.
RISE IN PURCHASING POWER
The largest relative advances in aggregate real income from 1947 to 1957—
almost three-fifths—were scored in the Far
West and Southwest, while growth in the
Southeast was only a little less. The record
for the Great Lakes and Rocky Mountain
regions was about the same as that for the
country as a whole. In the highly developed New England and Mideast areas,
the expansion in real income approximated two-fifths; in the Plains States, it
amounted to one-third. These comparative
advances in purchasing power, along with
the absolute volume of income in each region, are shown here in the text table.
Personal Income—Billions of 1957 Dollars
1947
United States
New England
Mideast
Great Lakes
Plains
Southeast
Southwest
Rocky Mountains
Far West
- ._
... _
1957
Percent
increase,
1947-57
236.3 345.3
46
16.3
61.8
53.8
20.9
22.7
87.9
77.6
27.9
39
42
44
34
34.7
15.0
5.3
28.6
53.1
23.4
7.7
45.0
53
57
47
57
Accompanying the gains in total real income, and contributing to them, were
widely varying rates of population advance. (See Figure 16.) As compared with
a growth of about one-fifth for the country as a whole, the 1947-57 population increases by regions varied from nearly twofifths in the Far West and almost one-third
in the Rocky Mountain States to one-tenth
in New England. The pattern of regional
expansion in population differed significantly from that in total real income.
In real income per capita, an outstanding advance over the past decade was made
by the Southeast, as shown in Figure 17.
Gains in New England, the Mideast, and
Southwest also exceeded the national
average.
While differences in postwar economic
growth are thus apparent, of primary note
is the broad upsurge which characterized
all sections of the Nation. In 1957, real income was a record in every State and
region.
COMPARATIVE INCOME EXPANSION
Following this sketch of income changes
in real terms, consideration is now turned
to the regular current-dollar figures. These
are available, as noted, in considerable
component detail, and thus permit analysis of some of the principal factors under
31
lying relative shifts in the regional distri- sizable decline in textile manufacturing,
the State's largest industry.
bution of income.
It should first be noted that the State
In the case of the District of Columbia,
and regional increases in current-dollar in- it should be noted that the figures are not
come from 1947 to 1957 reflect the same at all indicative of what happened in the
pattern of change observed in real income. Washington Metropolitan Area as a whole.
This generalization stems from the fact The District comprises a city of limited
that relative increases in consumer prices geographic size, and growth in the postwar
appear to have been quite similar in period has taken place in the Maryland
most broad regions of the country, and and Virginia suburbs, which have exthat such similarity has held in marked de- panded greatly. The income of the Washgree among States.1
ington Metropolitan Area in 1957—at
Given this fact, it follows that the rank- $4/2 billion—was more than double that
ing of the regions as to relative expansion received by residents of the District of
in current-dollar income was the same as Columbia.
that noted above for real income. Relative
increases were thus largest in the Far West
and Southwest, where total income douREGIONAL SHIFTS
bled from 1947 to 1957; and the rise recorded for the Plains States—two-thirds—
BY INDUSTRY
was least. (See Table 1.) In the Great
Lakes and Rocky Mountain States, income
Next in this review is an evaluation of
expansion closely approximated the na- the State and regional income changes over
tionwide rate of a little over four-fifths. the postwar period. This will be carried out
The increase fell somewhat below that rate through an analysis of underlying factors
in New England and the Mideast, and ex- as evidenced in the components of personal
ceeded it in the Southeast.
income, principally those which record the
On a State basis, there was some tend- earnings of individuals on an industry
ency for the 1947—57 increases in total in- basis.
come to be above average or below average
The endeavor will be to gauge the exin conformity with the record of the region
tent
to which the measured changes in total
in which a State is located. Within this
general pattern, the actual rates of increase income from 1947 to 1957 reflect differences in basic growth tendencies among the
varied widely.
The largest relative advances in total in- regions. This requires an allowance, at
come over the past decade occurred in least rough, for those temporary or special
Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, factors which may have been present in
and Delaware. While it must be kept in either or both of the terminal years 1947
mind that these States are in general and 1957, and thus may have served to
among the smaller ones in terms of income obscure developments of a more fundavolume and that growth proceeded from a mental nature.
Experience with the State income data
relatively low base, in each of them income
in 1957 was approximately 2J/2 times the has shown that the temporary or special
1947 dollar total. In the first four States factors making for irregularity of movelisted, above-average increases were gen- ment in the geographic income flows stem
eral among major industries; in Delaware, in large degree from two sources—farming
the impetus stemmed chiefly from manu- and government.
facturing—more specifically, from the
After a discussion of the geographic
State's large chemical industry—and from changes in these income sources from 1947
a spurt in construction activity.
to 1957, attention will be directed to the
At the other end of the scale were North pattern of postwar regional economic
Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas, Missis- growth indicated by the data on nonfarm
sippi, Rhode Island, and the District of income and private nonfarm income. BeColumbia, where the advances from 1947 cause these data abstract from the direct
to 1957 ranged from one-tenth to one-half. effects of the special elements reflected in
In the two Dakotas, Arkansas, and Missis- the agricultural and governmental income
sippi, the rise in aggregate income was flows, they tend to provide better measures
dampened by a drop in farm income; ac- than total income of the more basic shorttivity in nonfarm industries in each of these term developments in the State and refour States expanded at a pace approxi- gional economies. It may also be added
mating that for the Nation. In Rhode Is- that nonfarm measures of geographic inland, the principal limiting factor was a come growth have an independent usefulness for market research.
1. State and regional consumer price indexes used
in this report for deflating personal income in
selected years 1929-53 were prepared by Abner Hurwitz and' Carlyle P. Stallings of the U. S. Department of Labor, and published in "Interregional Differentials in Per Capita Real Income Change,"
Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume Twenty-one,
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957. Hurwitz and Stallings extended the indexes to 1957 on
a regional basis for use in this volume.
FARM INCOME DECLINES
The economic development of the past
decade most clearly imprinted on the regional distribution of income was the strong
32
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
decline in farm income from the abnormal
high attained in 1947.
The total income received by individuals
from farming amounted to $17 billion, or 9
percent of national personal income, in
1947, when farm prices were exceptionally
high and foreign demand was at a peak because of the disruption of production in
many parts of the world as a result of the
war. By 1957, farm income had receded to
$14 billion, or 4 percent of total income.
This decline, of course, was at a much
steeper rate than the historical one since
1929, when farming accounted for 8 ^ percent of personal income. The long-term
trend, it may be added, has been accompanied by a shift of population from farm
to city—to which the tremendous growth of
capital equipment in agriculture gave impetus—and over the past quarter-century
average incomes earned in farming have
more than kept pace with those in nonfarm
pursuits.
It is also to be noted that in the personal
income measure no allowance is made for
capital gains, whether realized or unrealized. These were large in both the war
and postwar periods, which witnessed a
great rise in the value of farm property.
In an evaluation of postwar alterations
in the regional income distribution, it is
of prime importance to take account of the
pronounced geographic effects of the divergence in movement between farm and
nonfarm incomes, the latter having shown
a comparatively steady growth.
Fig. 19
Per Capita Personal Income as Percent of
National Average by Regions
In most regions of the country, the 1947—
57 decline in farm income was of about
the same relative magnitude as in the
country as a whole, and its effect on total
income was generally proportionate to the
relative importance of agriculture in the
economies. By States, however, variations
in rates of change were also a significant
contributing factor. The percentages of
total income received from farming in the
various States and regions in 1957 and the
percent changes in farm income from 1947
to 1957 are recorded in Table 4.
One further note regarding farm income
is relevant. This concerns its considerable
volatility from year to year on a State
basis. Because agriculture is so specialized
geographically, weather conditions, price
fluctuations, and other factors that cause
variations in farm production have a larger
impact on income in specific areas than in
the country as a whole.
Accordingly, in the study of geographic
shifts in income from agriculture, an averaging of the data for two or three years
at each end of the period under review is
apt to yield more meaningful results than
comparision based on single years. By regions, much of the instability characterizing single years cancels in the intraregional
State variations. But on a State basis the
choice of periods for measurement may be
of critical importance.
An example, admittedly extreme, of the
instability of single-year data is afforded
by Iowa and Nebraska. For both States,
1947 was a drought year, in which corn
production was reduced sharply with a
consequent lowering of f a r m income,
whereas 1948 was a bumper year. If 1947
is used as a base for measuring the postwar
change in income from agriculture, Iowa
shows a gain of one-fourth by 1957, and
Nebraska one-eighth. On the other hand,
if 1948 is used as the base, farm income
drops nearly one-third in Iowa and oneseventh in Nebraska.
LARGER ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
As brought out in Chapter 1, the postwar
role of government in the economy has
been much larger than in prewar years,
primarily because of the expanded requirements of national defense and of social insurance, veterans', and related programs.
In 1929, income paid out to individuals by
government totaled $6 billion, or 7 percent
of personal income nationally. In 1957,
such disbursements came to $58 billion, or
17 percent of individual incomes. This
total, in turn, compared with $28 billion
for 1947.
Government income disbursements represent the total of all types of income
paid to individuals by Federal, State, and
local governmental agencies. They include
33
EXPANSION OF REGIONAL MARKETS
wages and salaries, "other" labor income,
interest, and transfer payments. Only payments made directly to persons are included. The personal income arising from
government purchases from business is included in the private income flows.
After the immediate postwar adjustment, government disbursements to individuals were a generally expansionary
factor throughout the Nation in the upward sweep of economic activity. In every
region, they rose at a more rapid rate from
1947 to 1957 than the income disbursed to
persons from the private economy.
Income paid out by government increased at below-average rates in New
England and the Mideast, at an aboveaverage pace in the four southern and
western regions, and at roughly the national rate in the Great Lakes and Plains
States.
The above relationships between government and private income flows hold on
a decade basis for broad regions, but not
in terms of annual changes in individual
States. Here, the potential volatility of
governmental income disbursements becomes operative. The main factor making
for wide swings in them is the relocation of
military personnel and the associated
changes in civilian employment attendant
upon military installations, but variations
in unemployment benefits, disbursement of
veterans' bonuses, and other types of transfers also operated to this effect at various
times throughout the postwar period.
As shown in Table 4, differences among
the States in the 1947-57 percentage increase in government income disbursements were quite substantial—much wider
than in the case of the regional increases.
This variability, which centered chiefly in
Federal disbursements, had a significant
effect in some States on the relative
changes in total income over this period.
NONFARM DISTRIBUTIONS ALTERED
The best, and most direct, way of gauging the geographic effects of income
changes in farming and government is to
compare the relative movements in nonfarm income and private nonfarm income
with those in total income. Such a comparison can aid materially in interpreting
and evaluating the State and regional shifts
in total personal income.
Private nonfarm income is a valuable
analytical tool for evaluating short-run
changes in regional economic activity. As
already indicated, it is free of the direct
effects of numerous erratic elements such
as the vagaries of weather, sharp variations
in farm prices, and relocation of military
personnel. Elements of this type sometimes
mask income changes in the large private
nonfarm area of the economy—which pays
out four-fifths of all income to individuals—and render total income an inappropriate measure of basic economic growth.
Provided here is a regional summary,
drawn from Table 4, of the relative increases in total income, nonfarm income,
and private nonfarm income over the
1947-57 decade.
The major feature of the tabulation relates to the Plains States. In this—the most
agricultural—region, total income advanced least; nonfarm income, by contrast,
showed an increase matching the nationwide average. The dampening influence of
agriculture on total-income changes is evident also for the Rocky Mountain States,
Southwest, and Southeast, but less pronouncedly.
A corollary influence will be noted for
New England, the Mideast, and Great
Lakes States, the industrial heart of the
Nation, where only a small fraction of
total income is derived from farming. In
these areas, the downward "pull" which
Table 2.—Per Capita Personal Income
Percent of continental United States l
P e r c e n t change
{
Amount
State and region
(dollars)
1957
1929
1947
1950
1957
1929 to
1957
1947 to
1957
Continental United States. -
2,027
100
100
100
100
188
54
New England
2,298
125
109
109
113
162
60
1.663
1,862
1,665
2,335
1,990
2,821
85
98
89
130
124
146
87
92
84
109
109
129
80
88
79
111
110
128
82
92
82
115
98
139
177
170
166
156
128
174
45
54
52
63
39
67
2,394
138
118
118
118
146
54
2,578
2,504
2, 112
2,740
2,156
2,514
165
132
110
145
111
181
130
119
102
124
103
133
126
120
105
144
107
147
127
124
104
135
106
124
122
169
173
169
177
97
50
59
57
68
60
44
Great Lakes _
2,214
114
111
111
100
176
52
Michigan
Ohio. .
Indiana
Illinois
Wisconsin
2,141
2,255
2,010
2,447
1.920
113
111
87
136
97
110
107
99
124
98
113
108
102
123
98
106
111
99
121
95
170
189
228
156
182
47
60
54
50
48
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Mideast
New York
_
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Delaware _
.. .
Maryland
District of Columbia_ _
Plains
Minnesota
Iowa .
Missouri
North Dakota
South Dakota.. Nebraska
Kansas
Southeast.-.
Virginia
West Virginia
Kentucky..
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia.
Florida . .
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Arkansas
,.
Southwest..
Oklahoma
Texas New Mexico
Arizona..
Rocky Mountain..
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming...
Colorado. _.. _
Utah.._.
Far West-..
_.
1,823
81
95
94
90
219
47
1,850
1,806
1,940
1,435
1,531
1,818
1,787
85
82
89
53
59
84
76
95
90
93
110
94
94
98
94
97
97
85
81
98
92
91
89
96
71
76
90
88
209
213
209
283
267
208
234
47
52
59
-1
24
46
39
1,427
52
67
68
70
288
62
1.660
1,554
1,372
1,383
1,317
1, 180
1 431
1,836
1,324
958
1,566
1, 151
62
66
56
54
48
38
50
74
46
41
59
43
76
78
65
67
68
59
67
87
60
50
67
55
82
73
64
67
68
59
68
86
58
49
73
54
82
77
68
68
65
58
71
91
65
47
282
236
251
267
294
337
309
252
309
236
277
277
66
51
61
58
47
51
62
61
67
45
78
60
1,752
67
84
86
86
270
59
1, 619
1,791
1, 686
1,750
65
68
58
84
77
86
75
87
76
90
78
87
80
88
83
86
257
275
314
196
60
59
71
52
57
1,865
85
101
96
92
213
41
1,896
1,630
2,038
1,996
1,694
85
72
96
91
80
111
95
113
102
90
108
86
109
97
86
94
80
101
98
84
219
224
201
213
203
30
30
37
49
44
2,407
129
124
120
119
165
47
114
115
132
128
112
107
130
124
105
94
120
124
184
180
176
154
42
26
40
50
105
H
90
Washington
Oregon .
Nevada
California
2,128
1,914
2,423
2,523
Territory of Iluwciii
1,821
1. Computed from data in table II-9, Statistical Section.
107
97
125
142
S2
34
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
farm income exerted on the general income
stream in the 1947—57 period was comparatively slight.
In general, as brought out in the tabulation, regional shifts in private nonfarm
income over the past decade were similar
to those in nonfarm income. On a State
basis, the degree of similarity was less
Percent Increases in Income, 1947 to 1957
Total
United States
New England
Mideast
Great Lakes
Plains
Southeast
Southwest
Rocky Mountain..Far West
-
Nonfarm
Private
nonfarm
83
93
90
74
75
83
67
77
78
90
94
73
75
88
92
87
98
84
102
104
124
114
111
100
123
113
109
marked as the relative movements in private nonfarm income and government
income disbursements were considerably
divergent—the latter being more erratic.
By reason of this fact, the data on postwar
changes in private nonfarm income recorded in Table 4 have a particular relevance to the analysis of income flows on a
State basis. It may also be added that the
value of this type of measure is enhanced
as the time period under review becomes
shorter, and the relative importance of
random factors greater.
An example of the value of the private
nonfarm data is afforded by Mississippi.
In that State, total income rose 50 percent
from 1947 to 1957, as compared with the
national figure of 83 percent. If the direct
effects of a drop of one-third in farm income are excluded, the relative growth in
Mississippi is seen to be much more favorable—an advance of 85 percent in nonfarm
income comparing with 93 percent for the
country as a whole. If the effects of a belowaverage increase in income from government are also removed, it would appear
that in private nonfarm income the State
did about as well as the Nation—88 percent
as compared with 90 percent.
Because in the year 1947 Mississippi had
an exceptionally high farm income and an
unusual concentration of military personnel, it is believed that the comparison
based on private nonfarm income, which
abstracts from these nonrecurrent elements,
gives the truest picture of the basic tendency in the Mississippi income flow relative
to that of the Nation over the past decade.
Sources of Private Nonfarm
Income
This review of the postwar expansion of
regional markets turns now to a tracing of
the shifts in private nonfarm income to
their industrial source. While this has the
main purpose of shedding light on the fac
tors underlying such shifts, it should also
be noted that information on developments
in broad industrial divisions of the economy has an independent utility for regional
economic and market research.
This examination is based on Table 3,
containing for the individual States and
regions percentage increases by major industrial divisions in the income received
by individuals from private nonfarm
sources for their participation in current
production. For each of the several industries shown in the table, this measure covers wages and salaries, other labor income,
and proprietors' income.
The main finding which emerges is a
highly significant one—that the geographic.
shifts in individuals' earnings by industry
fall generally into the same pattern as total
private nonfarm income. That is to say,
regional changes in private nonfarm income in the postwar period did not represent the residual effect of a netting out of
diverse economic forces. Rather, the summary changes stemmed from industrial developments that are pervasive throughout
the regional economies.
In New England and the Mideast, earnings of individuals in all major private
nonfarm industries rose at less-than-average rates. In the two southern and two
western regions, nearly every industry
moved up at a better-than-average pace. In
the Great Lakes and Plains States, where
growth approximated the national rate,
expansion in most individual industries
also came close to the countrywide average.
IMPACT OF MANUFACTURING
The manufacturing industry is of obvious and basic importance in conditioning
changes in the regional distribution of
income.
The expansionary impact of manufacturing on the regional economies was
greatest in the Far West, Southwest, and
Rocky Mountain States. In each of these
regions, individuals' factory earnings rose
much faster than income received from
other private nonfarm industries.
The effect of manufacturing was sizable
also in New England, which derives a high
proportion of its income from this source.
There, the less-than-average growth of the
industry was a major influence in the overall record. Most other private nonfarm industries in the States of this area experienced postwar growth rates closer to the
national average.
In the Mideast, Great Lakes States, and
Southeast, the role of manufactures in
shaping postwar economic growth was in
proportion to the importance of the industry in the regional economy, since in each
of these areas relative changes in factory
earnings were roughly in line with the experience of other private nonfarm industries. In the Mideast, the lag in earnings
from manufacturing relative to the Nation
was of about the same proportion as that
in other major industries. In the Southeast, manufacturing activity rose at aboveaverage rates, but no more so than did
earnings from other industries generally.
In similar fashion, expansion in the Great
Lakes States in manufacturing as well as
most other industries was fairly close to the
national rate.
Among States, there was strong conformity to the regional pattern. Every New
England and Mideastern State with the
exception of Delaware and Maryland experienced less-than-average increases in
earnings from manufacturing over the
1947-57 period. Of the 25 Southern and
Western States, 20 bettered the national
rate of increase, and in 3 of the remaining
5 the difference was minor.
In relative terms, the outstanding gain
on a State basis was scored by Arizona,
where income from manufacturing in 1957
was 5 times its 1947 volume. As a proportion of total private nonfarm income,
manufacturing in this State moved from
8 percent in 1947 to 15 percent in 1957—
Fig. 20
Importance of Commodity
Producing Industries
EXPANSION OF REGIONAL MARKETS
the latter still far short of the comparable
national figure of 32 percent.
Other top-ranking gains in manufacturing were registered by California, Texas,
Florida, and Kansas. In each, individual
incomes from this industry in 1957 were
nearly 3 times as large as a decade earlier.
In Arizona, California, Texas, and Florida, nearly all industries shared in the rapid
growth; in Kansas, it centered primarily in
aircraft production.
California's strong advance in manufacturing from 1947 to 1957, it may be
noted, was derived in large degree from
the transportation equipment, electrical
machinery, and fabricated metals industries. These three types of manufactures,
which bulk large in the State's industrial
structure, were among the top growth industries of the postwar period throughout
the Nation generally, and their relative expansion in California was substantially
above average.
Regional shifts in manufacturing over
the postwar years, it may be observed,
were in line with those over the longer period back to 1929. For that period also,
New England and the Mideast—while experiencing large growth in absolute
terms—accounted for lower shares of manufacturing income, while the Southeast,
Southwest, and Far West each obtained a
larger share. The experience of the heavily
industrialized Great Lakes States was "average" over the past three decades as well
as in the postwar period alone.
Two types of shifts in the geographic
distribution of manufacturing from 1947
to 1957 are evident. The first relates to a
shift in factory production from one established area to another. Examples of this
type include the movement of textiles from
the northeastern sections of the country to
the Southeast; the westward trend of lumber manufactures from the Southeast to
Washington, Oregon, Montana, and
Idaho; and the further concentration of tobacco manufactures in North Carolina and
Virginia, together with the relative drift
away from Pennsylvania.
The second type of change in manufacturing involves the spread of activity from
old established sections to newer and comparatively less developed areas. Probably
the most dramatic relates to nonautomotive
transportation equipment—to its increased
relative importance in Missouri, Kansas,
Georgia, Texas, Washington, and California and to its relative decline in the
Mideast, particularly New Jersey and
Pennsylvania, and in several States of the
Great Lakes. In paper production, the
Southeast increased its share appreciably
in the postwar period, while in chemicals
manufacturing, Louisiana, Florida, and
Texas experienced appreciably better-thanaverage growth.
TRADE-SERVICE PATTERN CONFORMS
After manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade is the largest industrial source of
earnings for the Nation's employed labor
force. Ranking next are the service industries. These embrace a wide variety of
establishments and activities—such as
medical, legal, engineering, and other professional services; amusements and recreation, including motion pictures; various
types of services to business; personal services; domestic services; hotels; and charitable, welfare, and relief organizations.
In general, income from trade and the
services exhibited a regional pattern of
relative shifts from 1947 to 1957 much like
that in private nonfarm income. For both
groups of industries, there were declines in
the percentage of the national total received in New England and the Mideast;
little change in the share of the Great
Lakes; a moderate reduction in the proportion received in the Plains States; and
increased shares to the Southeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountain States.
The sole departure from pattern was the
fractional decline in the share of income
from trade and service accounted for by the
Far West. This contrasted with the region's
general record of substantial relative gain.
Examination of the course of change within
the decade indicates that the moderate lag
of the Far West in the expansion of trade
and service activities was a product of developments in the early postwar years.
From 1950 to 1957, expansion in the region
considerably outpaced that in the country
as a whole.
Also noteworthy was the below-average
postwar rise of the Plains States in income
from trade. Here, the region's comparatively less favorable experience would appear to reflect the indirect consequences of
the drop in income from farming, the region's principal industry.
OTHER GROUPS GENERALLY IN LINE
To this point, the discussion of industrial
income sources has covered farming, government, manufacturing, trade, and services. Changes in earnings in five other industries over the postwar decade are shown
in Table 3. These include mining, contract
construction, finance, transportation, and
communications and public utilities.
The picture which emerges upon study of
the data for these industries is fairly uniform, and similar in general outline to that
observed for private nonfarm industry as a
whole. It includes larger-than-average advances in the Southeast, Southwest, Rocky
Mountain States, and Far West; belowaverage advances in New England and the
Mideast; and a mixed record for the Great
Lakes and Plains States, with changes in
the separate industries only moderately
35
different from the national average and
tending to offset.
It is to be noted, however, that the postwar growth of the contract construction industry, as measured in terms of the 1947
and 1957 data, showed irregular variation
by regions, with notable deviations from the
general pattern. But this industry is subject
to wide fluctuations in activity, particularly
on a geographic basis, and comparative regional changes based on single-year reference points are apt to lack sufficient
stability to be meaningful. When the regional postwar changes in this industry are
studied more broadly—by looking at the
general course of developments throughout
the whole period—it becomes evident that
in construction activity also there was basic
consistency with the broad trend of developments.
A marked degree of uniformity between
changes in total private nonfarm income
and in the volume of individuals' earnings
in the various industry divisions prevailed
on a State as well as regional basis. The
underlying State data should be examined,
however, for the many specific features
which this generalization cannot reveal.
Such data include not only those given here
in Tables 3 and 4, but also the detailed
tabular materials on earnings by industry
contained in our basic report, "Personal Income By States," as updated in the latest
August issue of the SURVEY OF CURRENT
BUSINESS.
It may be found, for instance, that in
West Virginia and Kentucky payrolls in
coal mining in 1957 were no higher than
in 1947—because of which fact the overall advance in individuals' earnings from
mining in the Southeast was of less-thanaverage proportion. By way of further
example, the more detailed statistics on
mining also reveal such contrary developments as the outstanding postwar expansion of crude petroleum and natural gas in
Texas and Louisiana; the sizable growth
of metal mining in Montana and Utah;
and the increase in both of these types of
mining in Colorado.
Longer-Run Perspective
While the main focus of this chapter is
on regional economic growth in the postwar period, perspective can be gained by
considering this growth against the background of long-term developments. An
observed income change in an area over
the relatively short span from 1947 to 1957
will be accorded greater trend significance
if it is found to fit in with the record of
the past, or if deviations from that record
can be explained on the basis of temporary factors.
The key data for judging the extent to
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
36
which regional income changes in the postwar period were in fundamental accord
with the long run are contained in the accompanying tabulation. The figures provided here are a simple and convenient
measure of regional income shifts—of the
change in income for each region relative
to that of the United States. They were
obtained by computing the percent increase
or decrease from 1929 or 1947 to 1957 in
the percentage of the Nation's income received by each region.
As pointed out earlier and emphasized
below, the regions differ widely in absolute
volume of income. This is a fact which, particularly from a marketing standpoint,
Percent change irl income
shares
1929 to 1957
New England
Mideast
Great Lakes
Plains
Table 3.—Postwar Changes in Private Nonfarm Earnings
. _ _. _
Southeast
Southwest - ..
Rocky Mountain ._ _
Far West
1
Total
Private
nonfarm
-21
-21
-5
-9
-23
"-I
+32
+37
+ 19
+51
+41
+47
+21
+48
1947 to
1957
Private
nonfarm
t)
Q
-2
-1
+1
+5
+ 17
+12
+ 10
Percent changes in individuals' earnings in private nonfarm industries , by States and
regions, 1947 to 1957
State and region
Contract
Private
nonfarm Vlining construction
ndustries
Manuacturing
CommuWhole- Finance,
Trans- nications
sale and
insurretail ance, and portation and p u b - Services
lic utilitrade
real estate
ties
Continental United States
88
51
136
93
67
146
56
121
93
New England
70
120
131
59
58
127
42
94
91
59
70
62
65
40
91
100
0
100
129
0
250
77
117
108
112
86
206
46
58
49
55
23
79
61
67
64
48
49
79
153
192
171
116
118
137
61
47 '
44 1
36
46
47
84
79
62
99
58
110
64
81
67
96
51
104
73
-13
124
74
58
109
49
102
87
67
91
69
135
99
37
88
121
-23
119
137
120
245
145
32
63
81
78
164
102
23
53
84
55
89
77
22
96
140
125
107
159
68
48
65
45
28
53
25
95
119
110
183
122
39
78
113
88
124
113
54
... -
Mideast
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Great Lakes
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Wisconsin
. . .
Plains
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
North Dakota
South Dakota
- ...
Nebraska
Kansas
. _ _- .
Southeast
Virginia
West Virginia. .
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia .
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Arkansas
-
Southwest
OklahomaTexas
New Mexico
Arizona Rocky Mountain
Montana Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
Utah
. .
Far West
Washington
Oregon
Nevada
California
_ .
. . . .
Territory of Hawaii
36
88
27
153
89
68
144
53
114
96
94
94
93
77
86
128
28
93
97
100
76
85
69
73
75
62
65
153
150
189
124
152
72
57
52
44
57
135
128
124
92
107
103
130
160
162
140
148
142
90
109
126
111
60
155
58
128
96
94
81
86
99
83
81
108
170
78
39
267
100
450
84
159
89
111
259
165
105
128
102
103
104
67
82
99
183
59
56
57
72
63
54
72
157
152
136
212
180
160
200
64
35
66
74
21
55
57
127
129
129
150
122
127
128
109
95
90
89
90
94
93
98
38
154
103
85
203
60
152
95
97
60
91
88
88
89
96
164
90
85
124
75
35
12
13
3
114
33
110
160
-8
93
286
37
142
163
155
84
97
128
113
226
230
100
258
96
98
78
129
107
85
85
111
192
100
105
101
111
82
69
76
80
79
78
82
137
80
65
91
44
168
148
180
133
216
283
189
303
183
205
212
171
62
51
46
43
84
46
55
101
23
46
80
56
145
138
144
152
148
147
120
233
150
178
140
138
114
76
93
84
76
79
75
140
85
67
115
64
123
133
1.30
185
89
221
68
170
114
99
122
171
173
115
131
233
138
120
120
123
264
142
185
147
398
68
89
125
123
156
221
475
284
65
71
60
42
133
164
389
205
92
105
267
148
109
104
208
134
74
206
64
146
110
97
81
75
131
111
142
35
58
131
116
168
153
135
267
203
102
133
91
136
167
71
36
50
97
70
200
190
200
218
194
58
51
43
88
56
150
117
180
143
164
98
93
127
95
105
72
112
166
61
167
66
129
90
80
59
160
115
8
80
85
76
108
62
186
118
112
59
191
198
53
38
102
65
118
147
375
175
51
63
67
70
180
117
180
138
69
68
249
92
0
U
33
43
92
29
U
56
woo
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
1. Consist, of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, and proprietors' income.
99
84
93
97
98
should be kept in mind in interpreting the
percentage changes recorded in the tabulation; as might be expected, there tends to
be an inverse relationship between size of
relative income expansion and market concentration.
First to be noted from the tabulation is
the similarity between changes in the regional distributions of personal income and
private nonfarm income over the long span
from 1929 to 1957. This is significant in
view of the particular suitability of the
private nonfarm income measure for evaluating basic developments over the short
run as well.
A second fact revealed is that the shifts
in private nonfarm income from 1947 to
1957 accorded with those over the whole
period since 1929. Thus, we can infer with
considerable assurance that postwar economic developments among broad regions
of the Nation were generally in line with
long-run trends. This continuity is portrayed in Figure 18.
Both in the postwar decade and over
the whole period since 1929, the pattern
of regional income shifts included relative
declines in New England and the Mideast;
relative gains in the Far West, Southwest,
Southeast, and Rocky Mountain States;
and comparatively little change in the
shares of the Great Lakes and Plains States.
A noteworthy difference between postwar
and long-run developments occurred in
the Southeast, where aggregate income expansion in the past decade exceeded the
countrywide average only moderately, as
against the region's outstanding growth
since the late 1920's.
For a rounded view of developments in
this area, however, attention should be
called to a fact previously noted—that
over this decade the Southeast's percentage
increase in per capita real income was
largest among the regions. In addition to
the fact that the area's total income rose
somewhat more than the nationwide rate,
both population growth and the rise of
consumer prices in the Southeast were
moderately below average. Reflecting these
events was an increase of one-third in the
EXPANSION OF REGIONAL MARKETS
Southeast's per capita real income, as compared with a little over one-fifth for the
country as a whole.
REGIONS DIFFER WIDELY IN SIZE
Perspective on the income changes just
reviewed requires recognition of the fact
that the regions vary substantially in their
economic dimensions. As measured by personal income, these are set forth in the
accompanying text table.
Personal Income—Billions of Dollars
1929
United States
New England..
__ - -_
Mideast
Great Lakes
Plains
Southeast
.- _. . . . _
Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Far West -
1947
1957
85.7
189.1
345.3
7.1
27.5
20.2
7.6
13.0
50.1
42.5
16.7
22.7
87.9
77.6
27.9
10.0
4.3
1.6
7.4
28.4
11.8
4.2
22.3
53.1
23.4
7.7
45.0
It is instructive to view the regional
shifts in terms of absolute increases in income. Total personal income received in
the four regions of the South and West
totaled $129 billion in 1957, as compared
with $23 billion in 1929. Though starting
from a lower income base, this expansion
considerably outstripped that in New England and the Mideast—from $35 billion to
$111 billion.
There are numerous parallels between
New England and the Mideast in respect
to their patterns of development. However, the most fundamental characteristic
they have in common is simply their comparative economic maturity. The reductions in the percentages of income received
in New England and the Mideast reflect in
large measure the industrial, commercial,
and population growth of the newer and
less developed parts of the country. Any
tapering in this rate of growth would make
the forces underlying the shift in the distribution of income toward the South and
West less strong in the future than they
were in the past. And it is to be emphasized that New England and the Mideast
still account for one-third of the Nation's
personal income and are principal centers
of population and production.
While this section on "Longer-Run Perspective" has been brief, it might be noted
that long-term trends by States and regions
were measured and analyzed in some detail in the Personal Income volume.
DIFFERENTIALS IN AVERAGE
INCOMES
Relative movements in per capita income by regions over the postwar decade
were fairly uniform—more so than the
movements in total income. Notwithstanding, per capita incomes rose more than
average in New England and the Southeast, and less than average in the Plains,
Rocky Mountain, and Far West areas.
Whereas the ratios of regional per capita
incomes to the national average were not
altered markedly over the postwar period,
there has been a pronounced longer-run
tendency toward a reduction in these differentials. As shown in the tabulation
below, relative differences in per capita
income among the regions were substantially smaller in 1957 than in 1929.
Regional as percent of national
per capita income
New England.
Mideast
Great Lakes .
Plains.
Southeast
Southwest
Rocky Mountain
Far West
.
_ _
1929
1940
1944
1947
125
138
114
81
127
133
112
81
110
120
110
88
109
118
111
95
113
118
109
90
52
67
85
129
58
70
89
132
68
85
92
130
67
84
101
124
70
86
92
119
1957
Over this period, the percentage by
which per capita incomes exceeded the national average declined in New England,
the Mideast, the Far West, and Great
Lakes States—all high-income areas. At the
same time, each of the four regions with
comparatively low per capita incomes
showed improvement relative to the national average. On a State basis, the lessening of relative differences in average income
levels is evident to a striking degree.
Examination of the text table reveals
that the bulk of the reduction in regional
differentials actually took place during the
war years 1940-44. Shifts prior to 1940
were generally small, and the regional differentials obtaining in 1944 were carried
over with only moderate alteration into the
postwar period and since then, as noted,
have tended to remain relatively stable in
most regions. Significant exception to pattern is afforded only by the Far West.
CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT STABILITY
Since the recent comparative stability
in the per capita income relatives is at variance with the considerable narrowing recorded over the long run, a problem arises
in trying to decide which of the two broad
patterns offers the better guide to the
future. Unfortunately, there is no certain
37
answer. We are inclined, however, to the
thesis that the longer-term measures are of
greater significance in this regard.
It was pointed out that several special
influences affected regional changes in
total personal income during the postwar
period. Their impact on per capita income
cannot be measured, for lack of knowledge
regarding the interaction, or interrelation,
between income and population changes.
However, these special influences which
were operative on total income are nevertheless quite relevant to an evaluation of
the postwar stability in regional per capita
income differentials, and the attempt
should be made to take account of them at
least qualitatively.
For instance, the postwar decline in farm
income was singled out as a principal development serving to obscure the basic income trends. This development dampened
relative income growth in several of the
low-income regions, and had a contrary,
relatively favorable, effect on the totalincome shares of New England and the
Mideast.
Regarding the trend significance of the
postwar pattern of regional per capita
incomes, there is another aspect that warrants consideration. It stems from the character of developments in the prewar and
war periods. Broadly speaking, regional
per capita income differentials widened
and then narrowed as underlying secular
forces in the national economy were first
checked by depression, gradually relaxed
during the prewar recovery, and then unleashed in the upsurge of the economy to
full employment during the war. In view
of these sweeping shifts, as depicted in
Figure 19, it seems relevant to conjecture
whether the reduction in regional differentials that had taken place by 1944 might
have happened somewhat sooner than
would have been the case under conditions
of generally full employment throughout
the period. If so—if the reduction in regional income differentials under such conditions would have come more gradually—
then the stability of these differentials over
the postwar period has restricted meaning
as a reflection of the basic trend.
In any event, study of the course of geographic per capita income differentials
within the past three decades has not uncovered a sufficiently regular pattern of
development to warrant any considerable
basis for judgment of the probable future
course. Nor does reasoning along the above
lines, which was amplified in the Personal
Income bulletin, point to a definitive solution of the problem.
Reduction in average income differentials has been one of the most fundamental
regional developments. Despite the difficulties involved, additional research is needed
to aid in ascertaining the main underlying
factors, with the idea that these might aid
in understanding the basic trend.
38
THE ECONOMY VIBWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
Table 4.—Personal Income by Broad Industrial Sources
Percent of personal income$,
State and region
Continental United States
New
_._
...
..__....
England
Maine
. . _.
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
- ___ .
-
._. _. ._
_.
..
_. . .
. _._
. .
___ . .
._ . .
Mideast
Mideast.
New York
New Jersey.
_...___
_ _
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
.__..
District of Columbia
.
_ _
Great Lakes
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Wisconsin
- ..
-.
..
-
. .
_ __
Plains
Minnesota
Iowa
- - - Missouri
North Dakota
South Dakota . _ . - . _ _ - - _ _ .
Nebraska
Kansas
-
_ ..
Southeast
Southeast.
Virginia
West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Arkansas __
.
..
..
- ._ ._
. .__
-
-
... _
__ __ ._
..
- -
-
..
-
__._--
-
Southwest
Southwest.
Oklahoma
Texas
New Mexico. Arizona
__. _
_ .
._._
__ -
_ _
Government income
disbursements 2
Private
Total
nonfarm personal
income 3 income
Government income disbursements
Private
nonfarm
income
Total
income
Farm
income 1
100.0
4.1
16.9
10.3
6.6
79.0
83
-18
93
108
94
136
100.0
1.3
16.4
10.2
6.2
82.3
74
-19
77
98
99
97
73
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
4.7
2.4
7.5
.6
.5
1.2
20.0
18.4
17.1
17.6
22.3
11.3
13.9
12.5
10.4
10.9
15.8
6.2
6.1
5.9
6.7
6.7
6.5
5.1
75.3
79.2
75.4
81.8
77.2
87.6
60
73
61
73
52
91
-22
-11
-11
-28
-18
-12
68
77
72
74
53
93
108
104
95
98
82
101
137
102
91
93
92
104
63
110
100
108
61
98
60
72
68
'70
46
92
100.0
.9
15.9
9.7
6.2
83.2
75
-24
78
94
80
122
75
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
.9
.9
1.1
2.1
1.2
14.9
13.7
14.3
11.8
23.8
43.8
7.7
8.3
9.3
7.4
18.1
39.7
7.3
5.4
5.1
4.3
5.7
4.1
84.2
85.4
84.6
86.2
74.9
56.2
71
94
70
140
105
37
-17
-15
-34
0
-35
72
96
72
147
111
37
91
117
87
207
164
32
72
95
80
207
156
29
116
164
101
206
193
76
69
93
70
141
98
41
Total
Federal State and
local
Farm
income
Nonfarm
income
Total
Federal State and
local
90
100.0
3.1
13.1
7.3
5.8
83.9
83
-16
90
101
97
105
88
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1.9
1.9
4.7
3.2
6.3
13.3
12.9
13.2
12.9
13.7
6.5
7.6
7.4
7.6
7.2
6.8
5.4
5.7
5.3
6.5
84.8
85.2
82.2
83.9
80.0
89
91
85
73
76
-23
—25
-19
-1
-21
95
97
97
77
92
90
112
126
86
117
108
98
116
81
111
75
135
141
95
124
96
94
94
76
89
100.0
12.1
16.4
9.6
6.8
71.6
67
-17
94
105
94
125
92
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8.4
20.8
5.7
24.2
28.9
20.2
7.0
15.4
14.7
15.3
19.1
20.1
17.7
19.8
8.1
8.3
9.3
10.5
12.7
11.1
12.6
7.3
6.4
6.1
8.6
7.4
b. 6
7.3
76.3
64.5
79.0
56.7
51.0
62.1
73.2
75
69
76
11
45
68
60
-22
24
-8
-54
-10
13
-65
98
87
86
99
95
91
110
99
103
93
91
120
112
139
81
94
72
80
127
113
141
123
116
138
108
111
111
135
97
84
85
102
86
86
113
100.0
6.2
21.4
14.2
7.1
72.4
87
-18
104
119
96
189
100
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
3.6
2.2
7.9
6.1
9.3
7.0
5.7
4.9
5.7
12.3
4.1
14.1
29.7
14.9
19.8
18.5
18.6
22.9
21.5
20.5
22.8
23.4
19.9
23.1
23.9
8.5
13.3
11.7
11.7
16.1
14.5
13.9
15.0
14.7
9.7
15.4
5.8
6.4
6.5
6.8
6.9
6.8
7.0
6.6
7.9
8.7
10.2
7.7
66.7
83.0
72.3
75.4
72.1
70.1
72.8
74.6
71.5
64.4
76.0
62.9
92
59
75
73
76
80
87
159
78
50
111
54
-24
-38
-20
-24
-12
-21
-20
59
-31
-36
-24
-21
104
64
95
88
96
99
103
168
97
85
129
83
116
87
115
88
110
115
135
171
122
77
152
96
104
69
94
61
81
100
111
156
97
50
82
78
179
118
173
165
189
160
203
211
193
156
297
148
99
61
90
88
95
96
167
90
88
124
79
100.0
6.2
19.5
12.5
7.0
74.3
98
-27
124
129
115
158
123
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
5.0
6.0
6.7
10.2
23.1
17.9
27.0
20.8
14.0
11.6
17.5
13.0
9.1
6.2
9.5
7.8
71.9
76.2
66.3
69.0
70
96
143
165
-54
-30
-10
80
98
122
177
181
101
123
205
198
93
107
188
188
116
159
241
216
97
122
167
176
93
100.0
9.3
20.5
12.8
7.7
70.2
84
-23
114
120
111
135
113
-
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
16.6
15.9
11.6
5.7
5.3
18.4
18.4
20.5
21.4
21.9
10.9
10.9
12.7
13.4
14.6
7.4
7.5
7.8
8.0
7.4
65.1
65.7
67.9
72.9
72.8
64
60
69
102
93
-16
-14
-16
-39
-21
102
90
95
134
109
121
106
140
131
98
109
104
128
123
89
141
111
163
145
116
97
86
84
135
113
- _.. . . .
100.0
4.2
18.9
11.1
7.8
76.8
102
2
111
123
96
178
109
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
5.2
6.0
3.7
3.9
22.4
17.6
19.9
18.5
14.2
9.7
13.0
10.7
72.4
76.4
76.4
77.6
74
63
151
111
-20
— 14
-8
6
86
73
169
120
94
119
269
129
83
92
300
97
116
164
221
194
84
65
151
118
100. G
7.7
S8.6
SO. 2
8.2
7.9
7.0
7.8
8. A
53.6
52
10
57
70
66
88
49
Rocky Mountain
_
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
Utah
-
Far West
West.
._ . . .
Percent changes by broad industrial source 5, 1947 to 1957
1957
_
-
- _ ___
Washington
Oregon
Nevada
_.
California
T e r r i t o r y of H a w o i l -
_ _
_
- ._ _ __ .
- .___
_ _ _
. _._ _
_
1. Consists of net income of farm nronrietors, farm wages, and farm "other" labor income, less personal contributions under the OASI program.
2. Consist of income disbursed directly to persons by the Federal and State and local governments. Comprise wages and salaries (net of employee contributions for social insurance),
other labor income, interest, and transfer payments.
3. Equals total personal income less farm income and government income disbursements.
EXPANSION OF REGIONAL MARKETS
39
Table 5.—Industrial Composition of Civilian Income in 1957
]Percent
State and region
Total
Farms
distribution by industry of civilian income received by persons for participation in current production
Mining
Contract
Wholesale Finance,
construc- Manu- and retail insurance,
tion
facturing
and real
trade
estate
Continental United States
- - ..
New England
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
M assachusetts
Rhode Island
C onnecticut
-- --
-
Mideast
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
_Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Great Lakes
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Wisconsin
-
._ _
Plains, .
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
_-
--
_- - _.
Southeast
Virginia
West Virginia
- --Kentucky
_ .
__ _ _
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
__ Georgia
..
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Arkansas
- _. Southwest __
Oklahoma
Texas
New Mexico
Arizona
.
__ __ . . .
_..__.
Rocky Mountain
M o n t a n a . _. _.
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado. . _ _ - . - . _ . _ _
Utah
Far West
Washington _
Oregon
Nevada
_
California
. ._
Territory of Hawaii
_
CommuniTransporcations
tation
and public
utilities
Federal
Government
State and
local government
Other
100.0
5.2
1.8
6.7
31.1
19.4
4.7
5.4
2.8
11.8
3.9
6.9
100.0
1.7
.2
6.4
39.6
17.9
5.3
3.5
2.9
12.4
3.1
6.6
.6
100 0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
6.1
3.1
9.6
.2
.1
1.2
6.9
6.4
5.5
4.8
3.4
5.3
5.8
5.6
5.5
4.9
3.7
3.3
2.9
3.1
2 7
.1
7.6
5.7
2.7
9.8
11.8
12 3
13 5
10.8
11.5
4 2
4.4
31
35
5 0
1.3
65
6.5
7 2
7 2
65
5.5
12
.4
4
.2
.1
19.9
17.0
18.4
18.8
18.8
15.9
3.6
4.3
3.9
.8
.7
33.9
39.6
30.5
37.4
40.8
45.2
1.5
3.1
3.1
2.5
0.3
4
.5
100.0
1.2
.9
5.8
34.1
19.5
5.5
5.5
3.0
13.3
4.3
6 7
3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100 0
1.1
1.0
.2
.3
5.3
6.6
5.3
5.3
3 2
5.7
8.9
3.8
3.4
2.8
2.0
.3
8.3
3.0
2 7
2 4
3.3
2 0
11 8
38.9
80
5 7
5.2
5 4
6 6
4.6
.2
2
1.6
6.0
4.8
5.8
4.3
15 0
12.4
10.7
9 9
12.3
19.5
2
3
2.8
.1
22.0
17.7
17.0
14.6
17.9
17.4
7.1
4.7
1.3
2.9
29.7
40.8
41.1
46.0
27.7
3.5
4.1
4.4
4.4
2.8
2.9
5
.3
100.0
3.7
.8
6.4
41.5
18.0
3.8
5.0
2.5
10.0
2.1
6.1
.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
2.3
2.3
5.6
3.9
7.7
.7
.8
.8
1.0
.4
5.8
6.8
6.0
6.6
6.1
47.1
43.8
43.1
35.6
38.9
16.8
17.2
17.3
19.8
18.4
3.1
3.5
3.5
4.8
3.7
3.4
5.3
5.2
6.0
4.2
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.5
9.6
9.5
7.9
1.3
2.7
71
55
6 0
56
7 0
1
3
2
2
2
11.5
9.5
2 0
2.3
1.5
100.0
15.1
1.4
6.7
21.5
20.8
4.4
6.7
2.7
10.6
2.8
7.0
.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
10.3
25.6
2.4
.4
8.1
5.3
6.9
4.7
2.5
2.5
6.4
7.9
4.8
3.3
7.2
3.2
4.9
3.9
3.3
7.2
8.1
3.1
8.9
10.2
10.3
3.4
3.4
5.8
12.5
22.6
8.9
9.1
1.4
.5
3.1
2.6
2.2
2.0
31
7.0
5.3
7.5
7.0
11.0
9.7
11.6
4.3
3.5
36
7.8
6.7
5 6
85
8.0
7.4
80
.3
.3
.6
1.4
21.0
19.3
21.7
24.0
19.8
20.3
20.5
4.7
3.7
7.1
22.7
19.8
28.2
100.0
7.9
3.3
7.3
24.4
19.7
4.3
5.7
2.6
11.5
5.4
7.4
.4
4.7
1.8
20.1
6.7
21.2
26.0
25.6
30.0
32.7
35.0
27.0
11.6
29.2
21.0
18.7
19.2
18.8
15.1
17.9
21.0
18.8
17.7
21.9
24.4
17.7
20.4
19.9
18.3
4.2
6.9
2.5
11.5
14.1
7.0
2.6
3.4
4.0
6.7
6.8
5.4
3.7
2.6
2.0
8.4
1.7
3.7
4.9
6.3
6.7
7.0
7.8
7.5
8.7
9.2
7.5
.5
.1
.2
2
.3
.3
.6
.8
.2
.5
.6
.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
29.7
35.9
25.6
7.4
6.1
.9
6.8
6.7
5.9
11.7
9.1
.3
.2
5.8
6.0
2.6
10.0
7.2
6.7
6.9
15.5
5.2
18.4
.5
.7
2.4
1.7
7.6
2.3
6.3
11.8
7.3
5.5
8.9
6.0
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.8
7.0
3.9
3.6
4.1
3.6
4.5
3.2
5.6
5.8
4.8
4.2
7.1
6.3
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.7
2.7
2.5
3.0
3.2
3.2
10.3
11.3
10.0
10.1
10.9
16.6
9.8
11.0
12.7
10.2
2.6
4.8
5.6
4.2
7.8
4.8
2.8
4.3
2
1
.2
9
2
7.1
7.5
7.5
100.0
7.9
7.3
7.9
17.4
21.2
4.7
5.9
3.2
12.0
5.0
7.3
.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
6.4
10.1
6.8
5.5
3.5
8.0
7.7
9.4
12.8
10.2
12.9
4.8
4.1
4.5
6.3
5.0
4.0
3.0
3.9
3.6
11.9
11.6
15.8
12.9
6.5
6.6
9.0
6.2
21.4
21.8
17.7
19.1
4.4
7.6
8.5
14.9
19.4
4.3
9.0
5.0
10.7
.5
.3
.4
.3
100.0
11.7
5.6
9.1
13.7
20.3
4.1
7.3
3.1
10.9
6.2
7.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
20.4
19.5
14.8
7.5
6.4
7.7
3.1
10.1
3.8
7.8
6.4
8.8
9.2
10.2
9.2
10.1
14.7
8.2
14.8
15.9
19.0
18.7
15.8
22.6
19.4
3r
3.3
3.5
4.8
4.1
8.7
6.5
11.7
6.4
7.0
2.9
3.0
2.7
3.3
3.0
9.7
10.5
10.1
12.5
9.4
3.7
3.9
5.1
6.4
10.3
8.0
7.8
8.8
7.7
7.4
6.6
6.7
8.6
(2)
(2)
.2
.1
.1
100.0
5.4
.8
7.5
26.1
20.0
5.3
5.3
2.8
13.3
4.5
8.3
.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
6.7
7.4
4.8
5.0
.3
.3
4.6
.9
7.4
6.7
11.4
7.5
26.2
25.2
6.1
26.5
20.4
21.8
18.1
19.7
4.7
4.6
3.6
5.5
6.1
6.7
6.7
5.0
2.3
3.2
2.7
2 9
10.8
11.8
28.5
13.6
5.9
3.4
5.9
4.4
8.5
8.5
7.6
83
.6
.4
.2
.7
100.0
11.1
.1
7.2
10.3
19.9
3.2
5.7
3.0
12.9
15.5
10.5
• 4
1. Dollar figures underlying these percentages are published in table 70, page 21, of the August 1958 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS.
2. Less than .05 of one percent.
Services
]
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE
NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
3. Family Income and
Buying Power
High levels of productive activity during
the postwar period have given a substantial
lift to the flow of incomes to consumers.
In turn, the buying power thus generated
has stimulated the demand for the goods
and services turned out by the productive
establishments of the Nation. This stimulus has been exerted directly through a
broad and active market for consumption
goods, and indirectly through the investment market, which has absorbed a record
volume of capital goods and inventories
to facilitate the enlarged flow of consumption.
The broad dynamics of these mutually
interacting events have been outlined in
Chapter 1, and Chapter 2 has dealt with
regional aspects. We shall now examine
the size structure of consumer incomes and
buying power, since this is a particularly
important link in the complete chain of
developments.
The current average income of American
families and single consumers is high—it
was more than $6,000 in 1957. This average summarizes a distribution which shows
prosperity to be widely diffused among the
more than 50 million consumer units that
comprise the Nation. Moreover, we are
not dealing here with a static record. With
only minor interruptions, American families have risen on the income scale during
the postwar period, and have provided an
expanding mass market for relatively expensive types of consumption goods and
services. This market is a unique characteristic of the United States economy.
These major conclusions are drawn from
OBE's estimates of the size distribution of
family incomes, which also provide detailed documentation to support them, as
well as the qualifications that necessarily
go with broad generalizations of this type.
These estimates provide cross-section
views of the distribution of before-tax
income by size of income and of the number of families and single consumers in
each income bracket. They also furnish
information on income taxes paid by the
various income groups and of the distribution of income after such taxes. The
40
latter are a close approximation to a distribution on a disposable-income basis.
Separate data are also given on the beforetax distribution of incomes of nonfarm
families, farm families, and single consumers. This information on taxes and on
major consumer groups makes possible a
more precise interpretation of the broad
conclusions relating to the level and distribution of family incomes.
The key series have been prepared in
current dollars for selected years covering
the war and postwar periods, and supplementary estimates adjusted for price
changes have also been made. These time
series show the upward shift of consumer
incomes in terms of current dollars, and
permit separation of the price and real
volume factors that have contributed to
this shift.
Finally, special estimates of the size distribution of income for the year 1929 have
been prepared. These put into historical
perspective the rise along the real income
scale and the broadening of the prosperous
middle-income markets which it entailed.
Fig. 21
Family Personal Income
In 1957
Distribution by Income Bracket
A CROSS-SECTION VIEW OF
FAMILY INCOMES
The 1957 distribution of families and
single consumers and their incomes along
the income scale is shown in Figure 21
(and in Table 1). The largest proportion
of consumer units—one-fourth of the
total—was in the income range between
$4,000 and $6,000. This bracket included
the median family income of $5,060; onehalf of the units had incomes below this
amount and one-half had incomes above it.
About two-fifths of families and single consumers were in the two adjacent income
brackets, $2,000 to $4,000, and $6,000 to
$8,000. The latter bracket included the
mean family income of $6,130.
Fourteen percent of the total—comprising in large part single individuals and
farm operator families—received incomes
of less than $2,000. The remaining 20 percent had incomes above $8,000, with the
proportions decreasing rapidly in the top
income brackets.
The distribution of income was pitched
higher on the income scale than the distribution of consumer units. In the chart
this is particularly visible in income brackets above $8,000, which include much
FAMILY INCOME AND BUYING POWER
larger proportions of aggregate income
than of consumer units, and in brackets
below $4,000 for which the reverse is true.
Impact of Taxes
Because of taxation, the distribution of
current buying power differs from that of
before-tax incomes. Table 2 summarizes
salient features of the Federal individual
income tax, which was the most important
factor in this connection.
In 1956, the latest year for which tax
distribution estimates could be prepared,
Federal individual income tax liabilities
totaled about $32 billion. (Capital gains
taxes are excluded from this total because
the gains themselves are not part of personal income.) This represented an average tax of about $600 per family and unattached individual. State and local income
taxes, which are not examined here, would
have added only $30 to this average.
A larger than proportionate share of the
Federal income tax was paid by the high
income recipients. Effective tax rates (tax
liability expressed as a percent of total
before-tax personal income) increased
from a negligible proportion in the low
brackets to 21 percent in the $15,000 and
over group.
The graduation of the Federal income
tax is most substantial in the $15,000 and
over range, which is not broken down
further for 1956 because of lack of detailed information. Units in the higher part
of this range are subject to tax rates that
are much heavier than the average for
the group.
Personal income, it should be noted, includes nontaxable items, such as certain
types of income in kind and transfer payments; and all taxable forms of personal
income are not fully reported on income
tax returns. Thus, the effective rates on
personal income are somewhat lower than
those derivable from tax data.
Moreover, because the rates shown in
Table 2 are averages on total income before deductions and exemptions, they are
substantially lower than the marginal
rates, implicit in these averages, to which
increments of income are subject.
Finally, effective rates for given income
brackets represent averages on the incomes
of families differing widely with respect
Family income
l
income total; those above $6,000, 63 percent of it. In terms of after-tax incomes—
a closer approximation to consumer purchasing power—45 percent of the national
total was accounted for by consumer units
with less than $6,000, and 55 percent by
units with more than that sum.
T h e contrast was particularly pronounced in the top ranges. Thus, in terms
of before-tax income, families with $15,000 and over received 17 percent of the
national total; those that remained in this
income bracket after paying their income
taxes accounted for only 12 percent of the
national market in terms of after-tax purchasing power.
Percentage distribution
in 1956 of—
Before-tax
income
Under $2,000...
$2,000-13,999---$4,000-$5,999
$6,000-$7,999
$8,000-$9,999
41
2.8
12.4
21.5
20.4
12.0
After-tax
income
3.5
15.3
26.2
19.6
10.5
Income of Consumer Groups
Additional features of the income structure of consumer markets are revealed by
distinguishing among three broad groups
$10,000-114,999-.
13.6
12.5
of consumer units. The largest of these—
12.4
17.3
$15,000 and over
nonfarm families—covers all units of two
100.0
100.0
Total
or more related persons other than the
farm group. Numbering 38/2 million in
1. Represents income brackets before tax for the first col1956, nonfarm families accounted for 73
umn, and after-tax for the second.
percent of all consumer units. Farm operato composition and size and hence with tor families—those operating farms whether tenant- or owner- operators—totaled 5
respect to tax liability.
Reflecting the impact of the Federal in- million, or 9 percent. Included in this
come tax, after-tax family income was 10 group are full-time farmers as well as fampercent less than before-tax income, and ilies whose farming operations represent
its distribution differed noticeably from only secondary pursuits.
The third group of 9/j million unatthat of the before-tax aggregate. As can
be seen from the accompanying tabulation, tached individuals, 18 percent of the total,
families with before-tax incomes below consists of persons other than institutional
$6,000 in 1956 received 37 percent of the residents not living with relatives. Included are persons living alone (or with
nonrelated persons) in their own house or
apartment, as well as lodgers and servants
in private homes, lodging houses, and
hotels.
Table 1.—Distribution of Consumer Units and Their Income by Income Level, 1947 and
The highest average income is found in
1953-57
the nonfarm family group. In 1956 personal income averaged $6,920 for these
N u m b e r of families and unattached
Family personal income billions of
Family personal income
individuals (millions)
dollars)
families, as compared with $4,035 for the
(before income taxes)
farm operator group (including their in1947
1954
1955
1953
1956
1957
1947
1954
1955
1953
1957
1956
come from nonfarm as well as farm
sources). The comparable average for unUnder $2,000
8.5
11.1
9.0
8.2
7.6
7.3
13.2
9.9
10.5
8.9
8.5
9.6
$2,000-$3,999___
13.4
12.1
42.0
17.1
13.8
13.6
12.7
51.2
40.8
41.4
38.6
36.9
attached
individuals was $2,800.
$4,000-$5,999
13.6
65.1
13.3
65.8
66.9
9.2
13.1
13.5
13.5
44.5
67.0
67.4
Reflecting this range in average income,
9.6
53.2
53.5
58.5
$6 000-$7 999
7 8
3 8
7.7
8.5
9.2
26.0
63.5
66.3
29.1
29.8
32.2
$8,000-$9,999
3.4
4.8
1.5
3.3
3.6
4.3
13.3
37.7
42.6
there were substantial differences in the
3.9
$10,000-$14,999
2.6
2.7
3.5
31.6
31.9
42.5
1.2
14.3
36.2
3.0
46.7
distributions by income brackets of the
$15,000 and over
- 1.5
2.2
22.1
42.2
54.1
2.0
47.1
1.6
40.8
.8
1.8
59.8
three groups of consumer units. Farm
Total
50.5
51.2
52.2
52.8
44.7
53.5 184.6 272.2 274.0 291.9 312.3
328.2
operator families and, in particular, unattached individuals, are much more heavPercent distribution
ily concentrated in the lower ranges of the
income scale than nonfarm families. (See
4
18
14
4
Under $2,000
17
16
14
7
3
25
3
3
Table 7.) In 1956, for example, 43 per$2,000-$3,999_
15
15
38
27
27
24
23
28
26
12
14
11
20
24
$4 000-$5,999
26
24
24
26
26
26
25
23
22
21
cent of unattached individuals and 30
9
19
17
14
$6,000-357,999
15
19
15
16
18
20
20
20
$8,000-$9,999 .
7
8
7
9
7
11
11
11
3
6
12
13
percent of farm operator families received
personal incomes of less than $2,000, as
3
6
5
5
7
7
8
$10,000-$14,999
12
14
12
13
14
15
4
4
12
15
lh
17
$15,000 and over
2
3
3
3
18
compared with only 5 percent of nonfarm
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
families. Also, only some 10 percent of the
individuals and 25 percent of the farm
42
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
group are estimated to have had incomes
above $5,000, compared with over 60 percent of nonfarm families.
In an interpretation of the income distribution of the farm operator group, attention is called to the significant element
of imputed income from food and housing
that is included. Food produced and con-
understatement of actual economic status
that occurs for consumer units that were
in existence for only part of the year and
are listed at their part-year incomes. This
type of downward bias in the income distributions affects multiperson family units
also, but is believed to be relatively more
important for unattached individuals.
Table 2.—Distribution of Consumer Units, Family Income, and Federal Individual Income
Tax Liability, by Income Level, 1956
Family personal income (before income taxes)
Number of
families and Family perunattached sonal income
(billions of
individuals
(millions)
dollars)
Federal
individual
income tax
liability
(billions of
dollars)
Tax rate
(percent)
Under $1,000..,.
$l,000-$l,999
$2,000-$2,999
$3,000-$3,999
$4,000-14,999
2.7
5.0
5.9
6.8
7.0
1.4
7.5
14.7
23.9
31.2
0.0
.2
.7
1.4
2.1
0.0
2.7
4.8
5.7
6.6
$5,000-$5,999
$6,000-$7,499
$7,500-$9,999
6.5
7.4
6.0
35.8
49.7
51.5
2.8
4.4
4.7
7.8
8.9
9.1
$10,000-$14,999_.
$15,000 and over
3.5
2.0
42.5
54.1
4.4
11.3
10. 5
20.9
52.8
312.3
32.0
10.2
but they make a relatively smaller contribution to the income total in low and high
family income brackets than in the middle
income ranges. In the brackets between
$4,000 and $10,000 wages and salaries
comprised over four-fifths of total income
in 1955; below $4,000 and above $10,000
they represented only three-fifths of the
total.
Transfer payments were the most important supplementary income source below
$4,000, accounting for one-fourth of total
family income in that range. Business and
professional incomes, and the various items
of property income, were relatively most
significant in the range above $10,000, each
comprising one-fifth of the total in that
bracket.
POSTWAR RISE IN FAMILY
INCOME
The recent distribution of family incomes is the result of a process of growrth
that has characterized most of the postwar
period. Total family income rose from $185
billion in 1947 to $328 billion 10 years later.
With the number of families and single
sumed by farm families is valued at farm
More generally, it should be noted that consumers increasing from 45 million to
prices, although for some purposes a retail even full-period low incomes in a particular 5 3 / million over the same period, average
2
valuation might be more appropriate. Val- year do not invariably signify inadequate before-tax
income advanced, with only
uation of imputed income at retail prices levels of living. Living status is affected minor interruptions, from $4,130 in 1947
would decrease somewhat the proportions also by such factors as incomes earned in to $6,130 in 1957 (Table 4). Income taxes
of farm operator families in the low in- adjacent years by the same family unit, accounted for about one-tenth of family
come brackets.
family requirements which vary with the income in most of these years.
More broadly, the basic differences in size and composition of the unit, and the
Part of the income rise reflected the upthe mode of living make meaningful income amount of capital resources available for
ward
movement of prices. But there also
comparisons between farm and nonfarm supplementing current income receipts.
occurred
a substantial increase in real infamilies very difficult. In spite of the impucomes. In terms of 1957 dollars, before-tax
tation of key items, many forms of income
incomes averaged $1,000 higher in 1957
and production that arise within housethan 10 years earlier (see Figure 22) ; on
holds escape measurement although similar Source Patterns
an
after-tax basis the increase was almost
items are taken into account if they are part
$900.
These real increases represented an
of a market economy. Items thus omitted
annual
average rate of growth of 1 ^4 perThe
income
structure
of
the
large
nonare relatively more important for farm than
cent.
farm
family
group
is
examined
further
in
for urban families.
The postwar rate of growth has been
Also, the greater complexity of urban Table 3, which shows striking differences in
somewhat
higher than the long-term rate
the
distribution
of
major
types
of
income
life calls for many unavoidable expenditures in the course of earning one's living among family income brackets. Dividends found for the entire period from 1929 to
which have no counterpart in the rural and business income are concentrated most date. For before-tax incomes, the 1929-57
and for
economy. On the other hand, the urban heavily in the income range above $10,000, growth was V/2 percent per year,
!
after-tax
incomes
it
averaged
1
/4
percent.
wages
and
salaries
in
the
middle
income
population has access to many types of consumption goods and services which are not range between $4,000 and $10,000, and The rise in income taxes that made for the
easily available to farm families. For these transfer payments in the range below lesser growth in after-tax incomes occurred
and other reasons it is not possible to meas- $4,000. The high proportion of transfers mainly during World War I I ; in spite of
ure with any degree of precision dif- flowing to families in low income brackets some reductions in the postwar period, tax
ferences in the level of living for farm and reflects the concentration in those brackets rates did not revert to their prewar levels
urban families. The conclusion that is most of aged couples living on pensions or old- as Federal expenditures remained relausually drawn, however, is that compari- age benefits and of families dependent on tively high.
As has been noted in connection with
sons based upon the present income defi- public assistance.
The figures are rearranged in the lower the discussion of the real GNP, the high
nitions tend to overstate the economic
status of nonfarm families relative to that bank of Table 3 to show the relative im- postwar rates of growth cannot be taken as
portance of the various types of income in evidence of a change in long-term trend.
of farm families.
In connection with the large proportion the family income total for each income The retardation of normal economic develof unattached individuals in the low in- bracket. Wages and salaries represent the opment during the depression of the 1930's,
come brackets, note should be taken of the major income source in all income ranges, and the pent-up demands that became efTotal
FAMILY INCOME AND BUYING POWER
fective after World War II, are important
factors which may account for the differential rates of growth.
Upward Income Shift
The rise in average family income over
the 1947 to 1957 decade was reflected in a
marked upward shift of families along the
income scale. This is illustrated in Figure
23, which compares the income distribution
of consumer units in current dollars for
1947 and 1957.
The chart shows a broad shift of the income distribution curve from the range
below $4,000 on the left-hand side of the
diagram to the higher income bands on the
right-hand side. Reflecting expansion in
economic activity, the rise in prices, and
the increase in the total number of households, families with current-dollar incomes
above $4,000 more than doubled between
1947 and 1957. In the earlier year there
were some 16 l/i million consumer units in
the range above $4,000; their number increased to 34 million last year. In contrast,
units with incomes below $4,000 declined
from 28 million in 1947 to 19/ 2 million in
1957. In percentage terms, families and
unattached individuals with incomes above
$4,000 accounted for 37 percent of the total
number in 1947 and 63 percent in 1957.
(See Table 1.)
The broad shift of families from income
brackets below $4,000 to higher income
ranges is mirrored in the distribution of
their total income. In 1957, the 34 million
consumer units that had incomes of more
than $4,000 received about $280 billion of
total income. This contrasted with $120
billion in that range received by 16% million consumers in 1947.
Incomes of all three major component
groups of consumer units did not increase
proportionately over the postwar decade,
and the relative importance of the groups
in the total population also changed. As a
result, the consumer composition of the
various broad income ranges in recent years
has differed substantially from that in 1947.
The total number of farm operator families decreased by almost one million during
this period while nonfarm families and individuals increased by about 9 million.
Over the decade the average income of the
farm group—including their off-farm income as well as net amounts earned from
farming operations—increased relatively
less than that of nonfarm consumer units.
Reflecting these differential changes,
farm operator families accounted for a
smaller fraction of the consumer units in
the upper income ranges in 1956 than in
1947. For example, in the income range
above $4,000, farm operator families comprised 5 percent of the total in 1956 as
compared with over 10 percent in 1947.
Within lower income brackets farm operator families accounted for about the
same proportion of the total in both years.
This stability stemmed from the fact that
the decline in the total number of farm
families was offset by a relatively larger
concentration of them in the low income
range. In interpreting these figures, it
should be recalled that farm incomes were
unusually high in the immediate postwar
years.
Unattached individuals predominated in
the lower income brackets in both 1947
and 1956. However, the relative importance of these individuals within successive income brackets up to about $5,000
was much larger in 1956 than in 1947. In
the earlier year they comprised one-third
of all consumers in the $1,000 to $2,000
income bracket, and one-fifth of those in
the $2,000 to $3,000 bracket; 10 years later
the corresponding proportions were almost
one-half and one-third, respectively.
This change in the composition of the
low income range reflected in part the
Table 3.—Relative Importance of Major Types of Income by Income Level, Nonfarm
Multiperson Families, 1955
Family personal income (before
income taxes)
Nonfarm
families
Total family Wages and
personal
salaries
income
Nonfarm
business
and professional
income
Transfer
Dividends
and in- Interest and payments
and
miscome from
rental
cellaneous
income
estate and
income
trusts
Percent distribution
Under $4,000
$4,000-$5,999 . .
$6,000-$9,999
$10,000 and over_
28.0
30.4
29.8
11.8
11.8
23.1
34.0
31.1
10.3
26.0
38.4
25.3
13.9
22.4
61.3
11.6
78.4
12.0
19.7
28.0
40.3
54.7
19.2
21.1
5.0
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8.9
7.4
7.2
24.5
4.4
3.3
11.3
8.7
2.4
3.7
6.3
Percent of total income
Under $4,000
$4,000-$5,999 ...
$6,000-$9,999
$10,000 and over^
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
63.4
81.3
81.7
58.9
19.3
1.2
1.0
1.3
9.6
Total
100.0
72.4
9.8
3.8
466759 O—59
4
2.0
5.9
6.5
5.3
43
slightly larger proportion that unattached
individuals comprised of the total population in 1956 than in 1947. But the main
reason for the change was the upward shift
in incomes that took place over the decade.
During a period in which current-dollar
incomes increased on the average by almost
Table 4.—Average Family Personal Income
Before and After Federal Individual Income Tax Liability
Average (mean) personal income per
Year
Number
family and unattached individual
of families and
unatBefore tax
After tax
tached
individuals
In cur- In 1957 In cur- In 1957
(millions) rent
dollars 1
dollars 1 rent
dollars
dollars
1929
36.1
$2,340
$3,940
$2, 320
$3,910
1947
44.7
4,130
5,120
3,720
4,610
1950
1951
1952
1953
48.9
49.5
50.2
50.5
4,440
4,900
5,120
5,390
5,180
5,360
5,500
5,720
4,070
4,420
4,570
4,810
4,750
4,830
4,910
5,100
1954
1955
1956
1957
51.2
52.2
52.8
53.5
5,360
5,600
5,910
6,130
5,640
5,870
6,110
6,130
4,840
5,050
5,310
5,480
5,100
5,290
5,480
5,480
1 The price indexes used as deflators are those employed in
deflating the personal consumption expenditure series in the
national income accounts.
one-half and relative income changes
within the nonfarm sector were small;, the
composition of given income brackets that
prevailed in the beginning of the period
can be expected to shift to income brackets
about 50 percent higher.
Real Income Rise
For many purposes it is of interest to examine the changes in income size distribution that have taken place after the effect
of the price rise has been eliminated, that
is, to determine changes in the size distribution of real incomes. These can be
derived only in rough fashion because
separate indexes applicable to the various
income brackets are not available. It is
therefore necessary to use the same index
throughout the income range even though
all brackets may not have been affected by
the price rise in the same way. Moreover,
available price indexes which refer to consumer expenditures for goods and services
must be applied to income totals that include income taxes and saving as well as
outlays for consumption.
In Table 5 an approximate conversion
of the 1947 current-dollar distribution of
families and unattached individuals into
1957 dollars has been made by applying to
that distribution the price index used in
deflating the personal consumption expenditure component of gross national
44
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
product. Differences between these 1947 come scale that has reflected both real
deflated figures and the income distribu- growth and inflation, and in spite of all the
tion for 1957 reflect—approximately—the other changes that have occurred in the
shifts that have taken place in real (con- American economy during the postwar
stant-dollar) family incomes.
years, the relative share of the various
The upward shift of families into brack- broad income groups in the total consumer
ets above $4,000 that was noted earlier in market was much the same in 1956 as it
the current-dollar series appears also, had been in 1947. Moreover, the stability
though substantially dampened, in the con- has held for all the years for which data
stant-dollar figures. The number of con- are available—1947 and 1950-57—includsumer units with real (1957-dollar) in- ing, it may be noted, the recession year
comes over $4,000 increased from 23 mil- 1954.
lion in 1947 to the 34 million already cited
As compared with 1947, only fractional
for 1957. In the current-dollar series the changes in relative shares have occurred.
number in this range more than doubled. Apparently there were small increases in
Similarly, compared with 11^4 million or the relative amounts of purchasing power
26 percent of families and unattached in- received by the three middle groups and a
dividuals with real incomes above $6,000 correspondingly minor decrease for the top
in 1947, there were 20/ 2 million, or 38 per- group. In absolute terms, the purchasing
cent, in that range in 1957. Consumer units power of all groups increased substantially
with real incomes above $10,000 increased over this period.
in number from 3*/2 million in 1947 to
more than 6 million last year.
PREWAR COMPARISON OF
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
Relative Shares
Another view of income and purchasing
Because of deficiencies in the source
power is provided in Table 6 which is de- data, income size distributions that are
signed to show the income position of the available for prewar years are not comNation's families relative to each other. parable in quality to those for the war and
Consumer units have been ranked by size postwar periods. Moreover, significant
of their income and divided into five comparisons between the postwar and some
groups of equal number. The table shows prewar data are impeded because it is
the percentage share of total income re- difficult to allow for the effects of cyclical
ceived by each group, and by the top 5 per- fluctuations, and for changes in the methods
cent of consumers, in 1947 and 1956.
of accounting for income that have ocThe most striking feature of this table curred over this period in part as a result
is the stability in income shares which it of heavier income taxation.
displays. In spite of the marked upward
Nevertheless, two bodies of data are
shift of consumer units on the absolute in- available—Kuznets' series for upper in-
Table 5.—Distribution of Consumer Units
by Real Income Level, 1947 and 1957
Number of
families and
unattached
individuals
(millions)
Family persona]
income in 1957
dollars (before
income taxes)
1957
Under $2,000
$2,000-$3,999
$4,000-$5,999
$6,000-17,999
$8,000-$9,999
1947
(in 1957
dollars)i
14
23
25
18
9
18
31
25
12
6
$10,000-$14,999..
$15,000 and over
3.9
2.2
2.1
1.3
7
4
5
3
Total
53.5
44.7
100
100
1. For limitations of the adjustment for price changes,
see text.
come groups and a family income distribution based on the Brookings study for
19291—which suggest strongly that the
structure of consumer purchasing power
was significantly different in the last period
of prewar prosperity from that in the postwar decade. While precise measurement is
not possible, these data indicate that the
dispersion of family incomes was smaller
in recent years than in 1929.
Families that comprised the lower and
middle income groups received a larger
proportion of total consumer income in the
postwar period than did their counterparts
in 1929. For the lowest 40 percent of units
the relative income share was 16 percent
in 1956 as compared with about 13 percent
in 1929, and for each of the next two-fifths
the gain was also in the order of 3 percentage points.
Percentage of total
family income
1929
Lowest
Constant (1957) Dollars
6 •-
}
2
3
4
Highest
Total
Current Dollars
dollars)!
8.0
13.7
11.5
5.6
2.5
Fig. 22
Thousand Dollars
1947
(in 1957
1957
7.3
12.1
13.6
9.6
4.8
Fifths of consumer units
Expansion of Average Family Personal Income
Percent distribution
Top 5 percent
.
_ -
1956
14
19
54
5.0
11.3
16.5
22.3
44.9
100
100.0
30
20.1
»
/
I
/
Correspondingly, the percentage share
of the highest fifth of consumers decreased
4
•-
2 •-
1929
47
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
1. Simon Kuznets, Shares of Upper Income Groups
in Income and Savings, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1953 ; Maurice Leven
et al., America's Capacity to Consume, Brookings
Institution, Washington, 1934. The family income
distribution for 1929 that underlies the present discussion represents the Brookings Institution estimates adjusted in several ways so as to make them
as nearly comparable as possible, definitionally, with
the OBE postwar series. The most important of
the adjustments was to remove realized capital
gains and losses which are not included in the postwar income distribution series. For a description of
the adjustments, see Selma F. Goldsmith, "Relation
of Census Income Distribution Statistics to Other
Income Data," in An Appraisal of the 1950 Census
Income Data, Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol.
23, Princeton University Press for National Bureau
of Economic Research, 1958.
FAMILY INCOME AND BUYING POWER
Table 6.—Distribution of Family Personal
Income Among Fifths of Consumer Units,
1947 and 1956
1956
1947
Per
Fifths of
consumer
units
cent
of
fam-
Income range
ily
Income range
personal
income
Under $1,730--.
$1,730 to $2,800..
$2,800 to $3,830..
$3,830 to $5,470. .
Highest--.. $5,470 and over
Lowest
5.0
2
3
4
11.0
16.0
22.0
46.0
Total
Percent
of
famiiy
personal
in-
come
Under $2,510...
$2,510 to $4,120..
$4,120 to $5,660. .
$5, 660 to $7,790. .
$7,790 and over
5.0
11.3
16.5
22.3
44 9
100.0
100.0
Top 5 percent
$9,560 and over. . 20.9 $13,490 and over.
20.1
over this period, from 54 percent in 1929
to 45 percent in 1956. The decrease reflected the experience of the top 5 percent
of consumer units. In absolute terms, of
course, the income of the highest fifth rose
along with that of other income groups.
The magnitude of the market shifts implied by these changes is brought out more
clearly if we compare consumer purchasing
power as it was actually distributed in 1956
with the distribution that would have prevailed had the 1929 relative patterns been
in force. In 1956, the income of the top
5 percent of consumer units—those earning $13,500 and more—accounted for $63
billion. Had 1929 patterns prevailed, the
income of this group would have aggregated about $30 billion more. About $12
billion of this difference accrued to consumer units comprising the lowest 40 percent of the population—those with incomes
below $4,100. The remaining $18 billion
was received by the next 40 percent.
terms of 1957 dollars) has risen from
$3,940 in 1929 to $6,130 in 1957. This represented an increase of more than one-half
in real before-tax income; for real aftertax income the rise was 40 precent. The
corresponding average annual growth
rates were V/2 percent and 1*4 percent,
respectively.
This rise in real income, supplemented
by the changes in the relative position of
the various income groups that have just
been summarized, has led to a very pronounced increase in the share of the total
consumer market that consists of middle
income families.
If—somewhat arbitrarily—we define this
market as embracing consumer units that
earned between $4,000 and $10,000 in
terms of recent prices, we find in 1957 approximately 28 million consumer units in
this range, whose incomes amounted to
$176 billion. They accounted for about
one-half of the number of families and
also of the total income. In 1929, by contrast, about 8 million families—only onefifth of the total—were correspondingly located on the real income scale. Their
incomes (in terms of 1957 prices) amounted to $46 billion, or one-third of the total.
Putting the comparison in somewhat
different terms, the number of middle income families, as defined here, was 3 ^
times as large in 1957 as in 1929, whereas
the total number of families in the population increased by only 50 percent. The ag-
gregate income of this group also increased
relatively much more than total consumer
income.
Factors in Market Shift
The causes of this shift in the structure
of consumer markets have not yet been fully
analyzed. Growth in national productivity,
which was the major factor underlying the
increase in real income and purchasing
power, has been discussed in an earlier
chapter. The circumstances responsible for
the shift in relative incomes are less easily
distinguished. However, a few of them
stand out fairly clearly.
The accompanying tabulation shows for
1929 and for the average of the postwar
years, 1947-57, the percentage distribution of family personal income by types of
income. The major feature of the table is
the relative decrease in dividends, rental
income, and interest income on the one
hand, and the increase in wages and salaries
and transfer payments on the other. Inasmuch as the former types of income account
for a relatively large proportion of the total
income receipts of upper income groups,
and the latter for those of lower and middle
income groups (see discussion of income
source patterns), the kind of change indicated by the table may be expected to
account for at least part of the shift in the
size distribution of consumer incomes and
purchasing power that has been reviewed.
Fig. 23
Changes in Family Income Distribution
There was a marked upward shift of family incomes from 1947 to 1957
Million Units
10
Increase in Middle Incomes
Since 1929 there has occurred a substantial increase in the real purchasing power
of incomes. Average family income (in
Family personal income
in 1957 dollars (before
income taxes)
Number of
families and
unattached
individuals
(millions)
1929
1957
Total family
personal income in 1957
dollars (billions
of dollars)
1929
1957
Under $2,000
$2,000-$3,999
$4,000-$5,999..._
12.4
14.0
5.1
7.3
12.1
13.6
13.4
40.8
24.6
8.5
36.9
67.4
$6,000-$7,999
$8,000-$9,999
$10,000 and over
1.7
1.2
1.7
9.6
4.8
6.1
11.3
10.2
41.5
66.3
42.6
106.5
36.1
53.5
141.8
328.2
Total
45
^^s^^K^vTvrv^ ^ *
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
46
THE ECONOMY VIEWED THROUGH THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
Many complex factors were in turn responsible for the change in the composition
of personal income by income type. Higher
corporate taxes and earnings retention
seem to be the most important factors accounting for the reduced share of dividend
disbursements. Rent control and monetary
policies may have been responsible in part
for reducing the relative importance of
rental and interest incomes, respectively.
Percent distribution
Income type
Wages and salaries and other labor
income
- _Transfer payments. __ _._
Proprietors' income:
Farm
__-.____
_.
Nonfarm
Dividends _ _
Personal interest income
Rental income
1947-57
average
1929
_
Total family personal income.
59.7
1.6
66.7
5.3
7.1
10.4
5.7
10.3
6.9
8.2
6.1
3.7
4.7
3.6
100.0
100.0
The increase in the share of transfer payments reflects the establishment and expansion of social security programs and also
the growth of pension and other payments
to veterans. The importance of wages and
salaries in the income total was bolstered
by the rise in the compensation of government employees accompanying the expanded level of government operations
which characterized the postwar period as
compared with prewar.
Quite apart from these factors which affected the size distribution of consumer
income by changing the composition of income by type, there appear to have been
others that affected it by reducing the dispersion of individual types of income. The
clearest evidence in this respect refers to
the important wage and salary component
which accounts for about two-thirds of the
family income total.
Based on wage and salary data collected
for detailed occupation and industry
groups in the last two Decennial Population Censuses, it has been found that three
major developments have contributed to
a narrowing of income differentials for
wage and salary earners between 1939 and
1949: (a) Decreases in relative income dispersion for men within practically all of the
more than one hundred occupations and
industries that were studied; (b) relatively
greater gains in median wage and salary
income for low-paid than for high-paid occupations and industries; and (c) an
increase in the proportion of workers classified in occupations with comparatively
little income dispersion.2
Although the interrelationships between
the size distributions of individual types
of income and the distribution of total
family income are complex, it can be expected that a reducton of wage and salary
differentials such as the one observed
would be reflected in a reduction in income
dispersion among families.
Similar data are not available for years
other than 1939 and 1949. However, there
is evidence that the reduction in wage and
salary differentials holds also when the
postwar decade as a whole is compared
2. Herman P. Miller, Income of the American
People, New York, 1955, and "Changes in the Industrial Distribution of Wages in the United States,
1939-1949," in An Appraisal of the 1950 Census
Income Data, Studies in Income and Wealthy Vol.
23, Princeton University Press for National Bureau
of Economic Research, 1958.
with 1929. An analysis of the average annual earnings of employees, which are
available in considerable industry detail on
a yearly basis for the period 1929 to date,
indicates that the dispersion in these earnings was substantially smaller during the
entire postwar decade than in the prewar
period, most of the reduction having apparently occurred within the war years.
This reduction in industry wage and salary
differentials points to a simultaneous reduction in dispersion in the size distribution of wage and salary earnings, and thus
broadens and extends the prewar-postwar
wage comparison that has been made on
the basis of the Decennial Census data.
Another development that is relevant to
the subject matter is the changing role of
the farm population in the economy, which
has been discussed in earlier chapters of this
volume. The number of farm operator
families has decreased substantially over
the period since 1929, and the incomes of
these families—including off-farm earnings—have risen on the average somewhat
more than those of the nonfarm group.
Given the fact that average farm family
incomes are much below those of nonfarm
families, both of these developments are
likely to have made a contribution—though
not a substantial one—to the reduction in
relative dispersion of family incomes.
Table 7.—Distribution of Nonfarm Families, Farm Operator Families, and Unattached
Individuals, by Income Level, 1956
Number of consumer units (thousands)
Family personal income
(before income taxes)
Total
Nonfarm
families
Percent distribution
Farm op- Unattached
erator
individuals
families
Total
Nonfarm
families
Farm op- Unattached
erator
individuals
families
Under $1,000
$l,000-$l,999__$2,000-$2,999...
$3,000-$3,999...
$4,000-$4,999_-_
2,688
4,954
5,871
6,784
6,941
433
1,663
2,891
4,523
5,554
462
1,035
939
752
538
1,794
2,255
2,041
1,509
849
5.1
9.4
11.1
12.9
13.2
1.1
4.3
7.5
11.8
14.5
9.3
20.9
18.9
15.1
10.9
19.0
23.8
21.6
16.0
9.0
$5,000-$5,999.-_
$6,000-$7,499_._
$7,50O-$9,999...
6,540
7,416
6,042
5,704
6,806
5,632
390
347
251
446
263
159
12.4
14.0
11.4
14.9
17.7
14.7
7V8
7.0
5.1
4.7
2.8
1.7
$10,000-$14,999.
$15,000 and ove;
3,545
2,019
3,307
1,873
160
90
78
56
6.7
3.8
4.9
52,800
38,386
4,964
9,450
Total....
100.0
100.0
3.2
1.8
100.0
100.0
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL
INCOME MEASURES
4. Progress in Past
Quarter Century
The present report incorporates the new
material on the national income and output of the United States economy which
the Office of Business Economics has developed in recent years. In a broader sense,
however, the report is founded upon work
which we have carried on progressively
over the last quarter of a century.
Study of the national income by the
Department of Commerce was initiated at
a time when the country was in a major
depression and there was urgent need to
understand and to improve the functioning of the economy. The work was
undertaken in 1932 in response to Senate
Resolution 220 of the 72d Congress, which
directed the Secretary of Commerce to prepare a report including "estimates of the
portions of the national income originating
from agriculture, manufacturing, mining,
transportation, and other gainful industries
and occupations, and estimates of the distribution of the national income in the
form of wages, rents3 royalties, dividends,
profits, and other types of payments."
The first report, covering the years
1929-32, was issued early in 1934 as
Senate Document No. 124 of the 73d Congress, and the estimates were carried forward regularly in succeeding years.
In 1938, we provided a major tool for
current business analysis in the form of
monthly estimates of income payments to
individuals. These estimates were the predecessor of our present personal income
series, the most comprehensive measure of
economic activity available on a monthly
basis.
A year later annual distributions of income by States were published, to furnish
market, guides and measures of regional
trends in business.
World War II gave a major impetus to
national income work, because basic policy relating to economic mobilization required tools for evaluating the Nation's
total production potential and for determining the portions of output that could
be devoted to war use. Measures of the
gross national product, by type of product
and major market outlet, were prepared
to provide the factual background for such
calculations.
With a large share of rising production
diverted to military purposes, incomes increased faster than civilian supplies during the war, and steps had to be taken to
keep the resulting inflationary tendencies
in check. The new product series were
related to the previously developed information on income flows, to make possible
a quantitative assessment of inflationary
forces, and to facilitate the establishment
of financial and other policies adequate to
deal with them.
In this manner national income data
were expanded and transformed to yield
a comprehensive statistical picture of the
national economy in terms of interrelated
product and income flows. This general
framework for organizing economic information continued to be indispensable to the
formulation and execution of governmental
policies to deal with the domestic and international economic problems of the postwar period. The statistics also became a
major tool of economic analysis in the
hands of the business community and of
other private groups whose contribution to
a decade of economic progress has been
reviewed in earlier chapters.
The principal steps which OBE has taken to develop national income information
to meet the requirements of economic
analysis during the postwar years will be
set forth briefly.
New View of the Economy
In 1947, the first National Income supplement
to
the
SURVEY
OF CURRENT
was published, representing a
landmark in the development of national
income work. The report carried out four
major objectives: (1) A recasting of
United States national income and product statistics into the framework of a comprehensive national economic accounting
system designed to provide an integrated
overall view of the economic structure and
BUSINESS
process; (2) the introduction of a number
of changes in the definitions of the several
income and product aggregates; (3) a
basic improvement of the statistical series
back to 1929; and (4) the provision of
much greater detail on the composition of
the income and product flows.
Thus, at the beginning of the postwar
period OBE provided a set of basic data
unique in their systematic and detailed
description of economic life in terms of the
production, distribution, and use of national output. The series first published in
the 1947 supplement have since been carried forward in OBE's monthly SURVEY OF
CURRENT BUSINESS on a regular schedule
which has included publication of detailed
annual reports each July and quarterly
summaries on a current basis.
Need Met for Measures of
Real Output
Initially, all the estimates were expressed in terms of current dollars only.
There remained an obvious need for a
measure of the real volume of national
output and its components. S u c h a
measure was necessary to supplement the
current-dollar figures in the study of inflationary and deflationary processes, and
also to assess trends in national productivity and standards of living.
To fill this gap in economic information,
estimates of constant-dollar gross national
product were published in 1951. The new
series covered on an annual basis the
period back to 1929, with the total GNP
broken down to show separately the broad
categories of consumption, investment,
and government purchases.
When the new income and product series were issued in 1947, it was possible to
provide only a brief explanation of definitions, and a description of statistical sources
and methods was totally lacking. At that
time we promised a more extensive report
47
48
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL INCOME MEASURES
which would describe fully the official national income and product series.
Presentation of Concepts
and Methods
This obligation was discharged in 1951
with the publication of the second National
Income supplement. This volume marked
a further major development in United
States national income work, for the provision of full explanations of the conceptual and statistical bases of the official
income and product accounts was a task
of first-order importance that met a widespread need among users of the statistics. Also contained in the report was a
summary view of the functioning of the
United States economy as seen through
the medium of the accounts.
The discussion of statistical methodology was conducted with candor. Meaningful mathematical measures of reliability
cannot be calculated for national income
statistics; only a frank evaluation of the
sources and methods underlying them can
provide the understanding which is needed
for their effective use in economic analysis.
Another important purpose in focusing
on the quality of the statistics was to provide guidance and impetus to the Federal
program of primary data collection.
A major task of the next few years was
the incorporation into the income and
product accounts of the statistical data collected by the postwar industrial and population censuses during the 1947-50 period.
For major portions of the product flow,
these censuses provided the first benchmark data since 1939.
Revisions of the estimates based on this
material, as well as other statistical information which had become available since
1947, were presented in the 1954 National
Income supplement. This report also revised and brought up to date the portions
of the 1951 supplement dealing with definitions and concepts, and with statistical
methodology.
Discussion of the latter subject was expanded in particular, to take into account
the results of the statistical revisions published in the 1954 report. The detailed description of sources and methods was rewritten in the light of new data sources and
procedures; and the revisions were analyzed for the light they shed on the reliability of the estimating techniques used
pending the availability of census benchmark data.
It appeared that these techniques had
produced reliable preliminary measures of
national output and of its broad components, but that revisions for some of the
more detailed breakdowns had been substantial. These revisions, it was noted in
the foreword to the report, "underscore
the need which we have repeatedly stressed
for further development of the primary
data sources on which the national income
estimates are based."
The 1954 National Income supplement
is a basic reference volume on the United
States national income accounts. Therefore, it required only updating in the present volume, which is of a different kind.
The 1954 Supplement is not superseded
by the present report. It continues to be
the basic source of estimates for the prewar
and war periods; for the discussion of
definitions and concepts, which has not
been repeated here; and also for the description of sources and methods, which in
the present report is confined to an explanation and evaluation of the statistical revisions which have been introduced into
the estimates.
Personal Income for
Market Analysis
In addition to the several National Income supplements, two major projects in
the field of personal income measurement
have served to extend materially the scope
and value of the official national income
work. These projects, both of which represented large-scale undertakings extending
over a period of years, yielded the widely
used Office of Business Economics series
on personal income by size classes and by
States. Both of these established new
sources of information on the country's
economic structure in general and on the
composition of consumer markets in particular.
The estimates of personal income by
size classes were established in 1953, when
they were reported, described, and analyzed
in a special supplement to the SURVEY OF
CURRENT BUSINESS. 1 These estimates, covering selected years since 1944, provided
size distributions of before-tax incomes for
nonfarm families, farm families, and single
consumers, and size distributions of aftertax incomes for all consumer units combined. The series have since been kept up
to date in regular annual reports in the
totals based on the OBE personal income
estimates.
The State series on personal income
covers all years since 1929. This annual
economic record consists of both overall
figures on total and per capita personal income and the detailed sources of income by
type and by industry.
The complete set of estimates was presented in a series of 80 tables in a SURVEY
supplement published in 1956.2 This report also provided detailed explanations
of the concept, statistical derivation, and
reliability of the personal income measures,
together with an analysis of the results of
regional economic development, with particular focus on long-term trends.
The Personal Income supplement incorporated a number of improvements over
the "State income payments" work which
had been initiated in 1939. The new State
series, tied in with the conceptually improved personal income measure included
in the national income and product accounts, provided essential information in
much greater detail, fully documented and
explained.
The report also featured a new purchasing power guide—the first official estimates
of disposable personal income by States.
Other Developmental Work
They are based on two major sources of
information—consolidated tabulations of
(1) individual income tax returns by the
Internal Revenue Service, and (2) sample
field surveys conducted bv the Bureau of
the Census and by the Survey Research
Center of the University of Michigan for
the Federal Reserve Board. Involved in
the derivation of the estimates is the complex task of integrating these data sources
and of adjusting the results to controlling
The development and improvement of
the national income accounts which occurred during the postwar period is most
clearly apparent in the five major publications discussed above. However, this
backward look over the past decade would
not be complete without reference to portions of our national income work that are
not directly reflected in these reports.
1. Speedups in the inflow of primary
data combined with long experience in
estimating work have enabled OBE to present a comprehensive and systematic view
of the Nation's economic activity on an
exceedingly prompt time schedule. We
make available monthly estimates of personal income 2 weeks after the end of the
month, and quarterly summaries of the
entire set of the national income and product accounts 6 weeks after the close of the
reference period. This information is basic
for the analysis of current economic developments, including our monthly and quarterly reviews of business conditions in the
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. Its widespread use is reflected in the increasingly
high order of economic appraisals now
available in the business and daily press.
2. A number of articles appearing in
the SURVEY have contributed to developmental research in the national income
1. Income Distribution in the United States. U. S.
Government Printing Office, Washington. 1953. 65
cents.
2. Charles P. Schwartz and Robert E. Graham. Jr..
Personal Income by States Since 1929, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington. 1956, $1.50.
SURVEY.
PROGRESS IN
field. Examples are the several studies of
capital formation, consumption, and
stocks; the cross-classification of GNP by
type of output and purchaser group; and
the measurement and analysis of gross
product originating in farming. Our regular investigations into the sources and uses
of funds by corporations may also be mentioned in this connection, as well as the
Plant and Equipment Survey which OBE
conducts jointly with the Securities and
Exchange Commission. Throughout the
past decade this survey has furnished a key
economic indicator, in the form of data
on the anticipated and actual capital outlays by business—quarterly as well as annual, and broken down by industry groups.
3. The Office of Business Economics
has maintained an active role in international developments in the field of national
income. Prior to the publication of our estimates on a new and revised basis in 1947,
we held a series of meetings in Washington
with technicians from the United Kingdom and Canada in order to exchange
views and to promote international comparability of national income statistics.
Subsequently, the National Income Division has aided United Nations and OEEC
technical committees working toward a
standard national accounting system designed to have international applicability.3
In addition to cooperating with international organizations for the improvement of national income concepts and
measurement, the Office of Business Eco3. Measurement of National Income and the Construction of Social Accounts, Studies and Reports
on Statistical Methods, No. 7, United Nations. Geneva, 1947; A Standardised System of National
Accounts, Organization for European Economic Cooperation, Paris, 1952 ; A System of National Accounts and Supporting Tables, Studies in Methods
2, United Nations, New York, 1953.
nomics has provided help to a great many
countries where income research was less
highly developed. In the past 10 years, the
training courses for foreign personnel
which are conducted by OBE's National
Income Division and Balance of Payments
Division have graduated about 175 technicians from more than 50 different
countries.
Reflecting the initial emphasis of the
program, nearly one-half of these technicians have come from Latin America. In
the more recent period, participation has
been quite diversified, extending to all
major regions of the free world.
4. Our assistance has also been made
available to public and private groups concerned with the level and composition of
income locally. Cooperation has been given
to various organizations, mostly university
bureaus of business and economic research,
engaged in the estimation of income by
counties. At the request of the Territory of
Hawaii, we conducted a study which established a Territorial income series consistent with our regular State estimates,
and which, more generally, set forth a systematic approach to area income measurement.4
The Office of Business Economics recently prepared an economic base survey
for the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers as
part of the Corps' study of the water resource development of the Delaware River
Basin. Central to this survey was a set of
specially constructed estimates of personal
income for the Delaware River Service
Area and its principal subdivisions. One of
the major ends served by the study was to
furnish a basic guide to all those interested
4. See Charles F. Schwartz, Income of Hawaii,
U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington, 1953.
PAST QUARTER
CENTURY
49
in the methodology required for calculating income flows on a smaller-than-State
basis.
Another undertaking of significance to
local income research was our part in organizing a conference on regional income
studies held at Duke University in the
spring of 1955.5
5. As the national income and product
accounts have grown in use and become
firmly established as tools of economic
analysis during the postwar years, their
underlying concepts have been subjected
to increasing scrutiny and discussion
among economists. OBE has taken an
active part in such evaluations, contributing a number of papers to this literature.
The autumn 1955 meetings of the Conference on Research in Income and
Wealth, sponsored by the National Bureau
of Economic Research, provide a major
case in point. These were devoted entirely
to an appraisal of OBE's work on the national income accounts. We presented a
comprehensive paper before this leading
forum, dealing with the major conceptual
problems of economic accounting and the
general lines along which future work
might proceed. We also responded in detail to the other papers that were read.6
Having reviewed the development and
scope of OBE's past work in the national
income field, we turn now to a discussion
of the new statistical tools that are introduced in this volume.
5. See Regional Income, Studies in Income and
Wealth, Vol. 21, Princeton University Press for
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957.
6. A Critique of the United States Income and
Product Accounts, Studies in Income and Wealth,
Vol. 22. Princeton University Press for National
Bureau of Economic Research, 1958.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL
INCOME MEASURES
5. What's New in
the Present Volume
This chapter discusses the new information on United States income and output
which is incorporated in the present report.
A summary view, setting forth highlights of
the new material, is given below. This is
followed by more detailed comments explaining the nature and significance of the
new tables in the Statistical Section of the
report, and thus furnishing a guide to their
use in economic analysis.
SUMMARY OF
NEW DATA
The summary 6-account system previously used has been redesigned and simplified to bring out measures and relationships
for current economic analysis. The set of
supporting tables has been greatly expanded, and has been organized around
the new 5-account system.
Increased emphasis has been given to
real-volume measures as supplements to
the usual current-dollar series. Quarterly
estimates of gross national product in dollars of constant purchasing power, presented here for the first time, are an outstanding illustration.
Several other new bodies of data on the
GNP have been incorporated. One of these
is a classification of output into durable
goods, nondurable goods, services, and construction. Another is a breakdown by the
legal form in which the producing entities
are organized.
Consumer income is more fully covered
in the new set of tables. In particular,
OBE's income-size and regional data have
been summarized in this volume.
Increased provision has been made for
the analysis of governmental activities. Included, for example, are distributions of
public expenditures, separately for Federal
and for State and local governments, by
type of governmental service rendered. At
50
the same time, tables relating the income
and product measures to data in the United
States Budget and to summaries of the
fiscal statistics of State and local governments provide information facilitating the
use of all these materials together in consistent fashion.
The presentation of the economic transactions of the United States with other
nations has been expanded and clarified,
and tied into the official statistics of the
balance of payments which OBE compiles.
Assembled in this report also are a number of tables which will serve as buildingblocks for OBE's study of saving and investment flows (see below). In addition to
such widely used tabulations as our sources
and uses of corporate funds, this group of
materials includes an analysis of the formation, consumption, and stocks of capital
goods in manufacturing, using various alternative valuation bases for these items.
Finally, a new framework for current reporting is embodied in the quarterly tables.
It is introduced at various points in the
Statistical Section of the report, and deserves a special word at this time.
Quarterly Tables Expanded
The previous set of quarterly tables consisted of distributions of GNP by major
components, national income by type of income, personal income by its disposition
among taxes, consumption, and saving, and
a reconciliation of the three major aggregates.
In the present version, perhaps the most
notable new element is the supplementation of the quarterly current-dollar GNP
breakdown by a corresponding table in
dollars of constant purchasing power. To
the quarterly information previously furnished on national income have been added
summary breakdowns by industry division
and by legal form of organization, the latter
showing separately the amounts of income
of each type originating in corporate business. Closely related to these is a distribution of seasonally adjusted corporate profits
by four broad industry groups.
None of the quarterly breakdowns of national income can be completed for a current quarter, of course, until the data on
corporate profits are available. Because of
delays in the reporting of the basic information, it has not yet become possible to
place the estimation of corporate profits on
the same schedule as that of other income
and product items. The tabulation of personal income and its disposition, however,
has been developed into an improved
framework for the reporting of other income developments as soon as they become
known.
The impact of fluctuations in consumer
income on spending and saving is of course
modified by changes in personal taxes; this
relationship continues to be shown on a
quarterly basis.
Quarterly materials on other major parts
of the economy have been elaborated in the
new system of tables. For the Federal Government and also for State and local governments, data are provided on receipts,
expenditures, and surplus or deficit. For
international transactions, the measure of
the net foreign balance is shown in the
context of the latest available estimates of
the gross flows of exports and imports as
well as net international transfers. Finally,
the saving and investment of the Nation
are given in conspectus.
In short, the system of quarterly reporting has been expanded to provide an improved summary of current economic developments. This has been accomplished
by means of a set of tables paralleling as
closely as possible the new 5-account system (described below) that ties together
the annual estimates. However, because of
differences in the timing of the basic data
flows, modifications in the quarterly presentation have been made to facilitate
prompt reporting of key figures. Also, information has been added that is not
WHAT'S NEW IN THE PRESENT VOLUME
brought out by the 5-account system but is
nevertheless important for current economic analyis—notably data on constantdollar gross national product and on the
origins of the national income by industry
and by legal form of organization.
THE 5-ACCOUNT
SYSTEM
The new system of summary accounts is
being adopted after considerable discussion in the literature of economic accounting. As compared with the one presented
in the 1954 and earlier National Income
supplements, it has been simplified by the
omission of detail relating to the institutional origins of production, in order to
bring out more clearly the types of economic flows and relationships that are of
key importance for current business analysis.
The new summary accounting system
appears at the beginning of the Statistical
Section. The first account—that of the
National Income and Product—presents
the output of the Nation both in terms of
final product flows and in terms of the
basic income types generated in its production. The next two accounts deal respectively with Personal Income and Outlay
and with Government Receipts and Expenditures. In conjunction with the first
account, these show the manner in which
basic production incomes are modified by
transfers and taxes and become available
for disposal by consumers and government.
They also show current purchases of output
by these two institutional groups—personal
consumption in the one case and government purchases of goods and services in
the other.
A fourth statement, the Foreign Account, shows purchases of United States
output by foreign nations; these are seen
in the context of our purchases of foreign
output and of current income transfers.
The fifth and final account, the Gross
Saving and Investment Account, shows, on
the one hand, the parts of income not yet
accounted for—namely, incomes saved or
retained in various parts of the economy,
rather than spent on the current use of
output—and, on the other, the several
forms of investment in which these current
surpluses are embodied, as seen from the
standpoint of the Nation as a whole.
In the prior 6-account setup, the National Income and Product Account was
elaborated by information showing the institutional origins of the gross national
product. This included a separate production account for business enterprises and
similar production statements embodied
on the accounts for other institutional
groups (persons and government) and
also for the rest of the world.
In the new presentation, the more significant of these underlying details are still
carried in the regular statistical tables, but
all of them have been eliminated from the
summary accounts. The business account
is omitted in its entirety from the new system ; and the income and product subtotals
are dropped from the other current accounts, along with the detailed entries
formerly included as necessary to support
these.
With the removal of these items, the
number of entries previously carried in the
summary account tables has been substantially reduced. The broad measures
found analytically most useful now stand
out more clearly in their various interrelationships.
Something has of course been sacrificed
to this end. The institutional structure of
productive activity, stressed in the original
set of accounts, is not shown in the new
form. Again, the business account eliminated here is useful as a conceptual bridge
relating national production and its accounting to their business analogues. It is
hoped, however, that the gains in simplicity, in aptness for other principal uses of
the accounts, and perhaps also in international comparability, outweigh these
costs.
The 5-account system and the more detailed 6-account system from which it is
condensed are of course not the only summary forms into which national income
statistics can be cast to provide a bird's-eye
view of the entire economy. Among the
many possible alternatives, one has been
reproduced in table VII-1 of the Statistical
Section because it has proved particularly
convenient in broad economic analysis.
The essence of this statement is its presentation of the gross national product as
equal at once to the purchases of consumers, businesses, government, and foreign
nations and also to the disposable receipts
of these groups. The purchase breakdown
of the GNP is the conventional one; the
fact that the disposable receipts of the
economic groups listed also add up to the
GNP aggregate reflects basically the exhaustive allocation of total receipts from
the sale of output among the owners of
the economic resources used in production.
Transfers and taxes modify the initial allocation to yield the disposable incomes or
receipts of the various economic entities,
but the sum total available for allocation
is not affected by this process of redistribution.
The changes in accounting design introduced in the present volume do not represent our final word on the subject. For
example, there remains for consideration
a variety of unsolved problems in the classification of transactions within the accounts. It seems likely, moreover, that there
51
will be some scope for further improvement
in the mutual relationships between the
account items and the supporting tables.
Similarly, the former will probably require
modification in order to serve with maximum effectiveness as a framework for integrating such developmental projects as
those outlined in the next chapter—which
of course could not be taken into consideration in any detail in drawing up the
present set of accounts.
These projects include substantial elaboration of the accounts for persons and
government, a detailed tracing of the
process of saving and investment, and the
provision of additional information on the
industrial sources of the national output
in current and constant dollars. While unlikely to affect the fundamental structure
of the 5-account system, such projects
would be fairly certain to call for modifications in it.
Summary accounts—whatever particular
form they may take—should not be regarded as substitutes for the supporting
tables on the various income and product
flows. They condense the information contained in these tables and place it in the
context of the economic process as a whole.
But once this focus has been established,
most types of economic analysis must proceed beyond the accounts to utilize the
wealth of factual information shown by
the statistical tables.
We turn next to a consideration of these
supporting tables. They have been rearranged and grouped in the present report
in accordance with the structure of the
new set of accounts, and approximately
doubled in number.
NATIONAL PRODUCT AND
INCOME
The Statistical Section contains a set of
18 annual and quarterly tables detailing
the composition of national income and
gross national product. The following discussion will focus on the material that is
new.
Annual Real GNP
The annual constant-dollar GNP series
hitherto published have been thoroughly
reworked in this volume. The composite
price indexes have been reweighted to take
into account the results of the 1954 censuses, as well as the revisions in the BLS
Consumer Price Index beginning with
1953. The latter have extended the areas
of consumption to which this index is applicable and correspondingly reduced
52
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL INCOME MEASURES
those for which the price series of the Agricultural Marketing Service of the Department of Agriculture are used. Finally, all
constant-dollar series in the Statistical
Section have been expressed in terms of
1954 dollars instead of the 1947 dollars
previously employed.
Quarterly Real GNP
Reference has already been made to the
new quarterly measures of real gross national product. These are presented (table
1-5) in the same product breakdown as
the current-dollar quarterly figures.
These real-volume estimates have been
among the most-needed extensions of
United States national income statistics.
This is partly because of their importance
in indicating promptly the pace and focal
points of inflationary or deflationary
changes. More broadly, it is due to the key
role of the Nation's total production volume in determining employment on the
one hand and the scale of living on the
other. Figure 8 in Chapter 1 shows the
course of real production over the postwar
period—compared with that of currentdollar GNP—as revealed by the new quarterly series.
The quarterly constant-dollar estimates
are derived by dividing seasonally adjusted
current-dollar GNP components by appropriate price indexes; the elimination of
seasonal variations from the latter has constituted a special problem requiring careful attention. The deflation procedure has
been carried out separately for about one
hundred product groups, involving the
combination of several times as many
price indexes drawn from Bureau of Labor
Statistics and other sources. The results so
obtained have been adjusted to annual constant-dollar figures that are prepared in an
even finer breakdown.
In view of the fact that the quarterly
real GNP is a new series which will be employed widely, it is important to draw the
attention of users to its principal characteristics.
First, undue significance should not be
attached to small, irregular changes shown
by these quarterly constant-dollar measures
of total GNP and its main components.
While inevitable imprecisions in the basic
data preclude meaningful interpretations
of these estimates to the last decimal, as it
were, they can be taken as valid indicators
of real volume changes which are of significant magnitude or which fall into
pattern, either in terms of this body of data
itself or when studied in relation to other
economic variables.
For example, for the several quarters preceding the business downturn in the
autumn of 1957, the estimates of total real
GNP show small changes to which no pre- nificant quality change, or whose physical
cise significance should be accorded. On units are not clearly definable for other
the other hand, when the estimates are reasons.
rightly interpreted they convey the imporThe quarterly constant-dollar figures are
tant fact that total real output was ap- affected, in different degrees, by these same
proximately stable during this prerecession difficulties. On balance, the price informainterval when current-dollar output was tion available on a quarterly basis—parstill rising.
ticularly for the most current period—is
A second, closely related, point is that somewhat weaker than that underlying the
these new real volume data and the asso- annual estimates.
ciated implicit price indexes are not suffiIn addition, certain special problems are
ciently accurate for any exact assessment encountered in the estimation of quarterly
of the relative contributions of the price current-dollar GNP, from which the conand volume factors to the quarter-to- stant-dollar measure is derived. These are
quarter changes in the market value of discussed in Chapter 8, which contains a
gross national product.
section dealing with the methodology emThe price and current-dollar value data ployed in estimating the current-dollar in•are statistically independent. The price come and product series on a less-thandata are not ordinarily subject to substan- annual basis.
tial revisions even though, as will be noted
presently, they are not entirely satisfactory
for the deflation of GNP. In practice,
therefore, statistical revisions in the cur- Goods, Services, and
rent-dollar GNP series tend to be reflected
Construction
very largely in the real volume measure.
Suppose, for instance, that the initial estimates for a given quarter show a rise from
The usual classification of gross national
$400 billion to $404 billion, or one percent,
in the annual rate of current-dollar GNP product focuses on purchaser groups, and
and an increase of one-half percent in over- also provides a great deal of information on
all prices applicable to the GNP. Price and the product composition of final output.
real volume thus appear of equal import- The latter type of breakdown, however, is
ance in accounting: for the change in cur- not carried through systematically for all
rent-dollar GNP. If, subsequently, a down- buyer groups.
In the present volume, a new set of tables
ward revision of $1 billion, or one-fourth
of one percent, occurs in the GNP, this will shows type-of-product information on a
show up almost entirely in the real volume consistent basis for the GNP as a whole.
Current-dollar and real output are classichange, and the indicated importance of
this change will decline from one-half to fied into durable goods, nondurable goods,
services, and construction; and production
one-third.
A third, perhaps even stronger, caveat in each of the two categories of goods is
should be entered with respect to any at- shown also as the1 sum of final sales and intempt to use these quarterly constant- ventory change. A cross-classification of
product by type of buyer is also
dollar estimates in productivity analysis. type of
2
given.
The margin of error attributable to the
These new tables will be useful for many
output estimates, when combined with that
in the available man-hour data, renders purposes. They will help, for instance, in
judgment on this score extremely hazard- the analysis of problems in which the duous. Even the preliminary annual estimates rability of output is a significant factor.
of real output, which are customarily pub- They will make it easier to trace the induslished each February in the SURVEY, have trial impact of shifts in final demand. They
supported only the most tentative com- will permit a more refined analysis of inventory holdings in relation to output.
ments in this connection.
The major reasons why constant-dollar Again, they will enhance the usefulness of
estimates of GNP, valuable as they are, are the gross national product as a framework
subject to certain particular limitations within which other measures of physical
production, more restricted in scope but
have been set forth in the 1954 National affording valuable detail on various segIncome supplement, in connection with the ments of the economy, may be interpreted.
annual series. There, we called attention to
One of the economic developments
the shortcomings of price deflation. These
which
emerge more clearly in the light of
stem from the lack of price information directly applicable to many components of the new data is the rise in the importance
the current-dollar product flow; from the of durable goods relative to total GNP
fact that, generally speaking, available over the past 30 years. This is shown in
Figure 24.
price information cannot take adequte account of premiums, discounts, and bargain
sales; and from even more basic problems
1. See tables 1-6 and 1-7.
encountered in pricing items subject to sig2. See tables VII-5 through VII-7.
WHAT'S NEW IN THE PRESENT VOLUME
The total national output of durables
and construction is an aggregate which has
been of wide interest, particularly in connection with studies of capital and of investment broadly defined. While purchases
of such output by consumers and public
bodies are not classified as investment in
the national income accounts, the new
tables provide users interested in such a
broad measure with the data needed to
calculate it.
Users familiar with the conventional
breakdown of gross national product will
have little difficulty in visualizing the content of the new one which has been added.
For durable goods, the chief components of
the new series are the familiar measures of
producers' durable equipment and of personal consumption expenditures for durables. To the sum of these are added special
estimates of such purchases by Federal,
State and local governments and of exports—less imports—of these goods. The
resulting total covers all sales to final users.
To convert it into an output measure, we
add an allowance for business inventory
change, as indicated by data on the holdings of durable-goods manufacturers and
distributors.
The aggregates for production and final
purchases of nondurables are derived by
a parallel method.
The total for final services represents
personal consumption expenditures in this
category, public purchases of services from
business and from government employees
(as measured by their compensation), and
net service exports.
The last of the four type-of-product
categories combines the private and public
components of new construction activity.
It represents the value of work put in place
during the year. No attempt has been made
in any of the tables in this volume to
break this portion of output between sales
of finished structures and changes in sellers' inventories.
Though carefully done, the special estimates required for the new type-of-product series are in general less reliable than
are the more familiar breakdowns of the
gross national product. For example, the
relative proportions of durables and of
nondurable goods involved in business inventory change can be measured only
roughly, since the basic data are classified
by line of trade and not by type of good
held in inventory. The estimates of government purchases of durables are also rough;
this point will receive further attention in
later chapters.
Production by Major Groups
There are a number of purposes which
require measurement of the gross product
originating in particular parts of the Na-
tion's economy. Neither the trend of output nor its short-run fluctuations need be
the same for government as for business,
or for farmers as for nonfarm producers.
To the extent to which total GNP can be
broken down to distinguish the contributions of such different producer groups,
economic analysis can be made more realistic and more fruitful.
Accordingly, in the present volume we
have brought together OBE's work to date
Fig. 24
Durable Goods Output
Contributes Rising Share of Total
Percent
600
BASED U P O N
CURRENT DOLLARS
1947
1957
on the current- and constant-dollar value
of gross product originating in farming
and nonfarm business and in certain nonbusiness groups. The general procedure has
been to prepare explicit estimates of production originating in government, households and institutions, the foreign sector,
and farming, and to deduct these from the
total GNP to obtain nonfarm business
gross product as a residual.
The current-dollar output of the three
•nonbusiness groups is measured by the
incomes originated by them. The contribution of farm business to the national
product has been estimated as the total
value of farm products less farmers' cost
purchases from nonfarm business (which
in the last analysis represent values originating off, rather than on, farms). The
resulting measure of output is in principle
53
equal to the sum of income derived from
farm production plus certain other charges,
mainly taxes and depreciation.
The constant-dollar measures are derived in the same general framework. The
real gross product of farming is estimated
by the separate deflation of product values
and cost purchases, each in considerable
detail. In contrast, the measures of the real
output of nonbusiness groups are based on
conventions necessary to meet certain special difficulties involved in the definition
and estimation of output originating in
these sectors. These conventions limit the
significance of the results.
The real output of government is measured in terms of deflated labor input,
without allowance for changes in productivity. Real income from foreign investment is obtained by deflating the currentdollar flows by composite price indexes that
measure changes in the purchasing power
of these flows in foreign trade transactions.
The labor component of the real product
of households and institutions reflects labor
input; the interest component traces the
purchasing power of this flow in consumer
markets.
Employed with due regard to the shortcomings which are apparent from the
methodological summary given above, the
new type-of-producer breakdowns of the
GNP should facilitate a more systematic
study of current-dollar and real output
patterns than has heretofore been feasible.
Both the farm-nonfarm breakdown and
that by legal form permit of such use. The
former 3 shows that for several decades
gross product originating in nonfarm business has continued to rise substantially
faster than has product originated in farming. (See Figure 31 in Chapter 6.) The difference in rates of output growth has
stemmed not only from a lesser rate of expansion in the output of farm products as
such, but also from the fact that the substantial recorded increase in farm products
supplied has involved a larger farm use of
gasoline, chemical fertilizers, and other
nonfarm materials. The relatively more
limited rise shown in the measure of GNP
from agriculture than in total output of
farm products reflects the attribution of
the value contributed by these materials
to nonfarm rather than to farm producers
in the GNP measure.
The legal-form breakdown of nonfarm
gross product 4 serves primarily to set aside
the productive contribution of government, private households, and the foreign
sector, so as to permit a closer examination
of business gross product. Many types of
economic analysis—for instance, those relating output to factor input—can focus
more sharply if they are conducted in this
3. Tables 1-15, 1-16, and VII-9 through VII-11.
4. Tables 1-12, 1-13, and 1-16.
54
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL INCOME MEASURES
more restricted framework. The estimates
of output of the nonbusiness groups may
also be used directly, in spite of their limitations, adding perspective to studies of
the institutional forms of production.
the country's economic statistics in that
earlier period—in respect both to the variety and to the reliability of the data
available.
Quarterly National Income
Historical Series
Important for trend analysis are time
series covering long periods. The present
volume extends back to 1909 the currentand constant-dollar measures of GNP, and
of the portions originating in general government, in farming, and in other types
of production (see Figure 25, based on
Reference has been made above to three
new quarterly tables on the national income: limited breakdowns of the total by
industry and legal form of origin, and of
corporate profits by industry.5 Such estimates have been used from time to time in
the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS, on
a
semiannual basis, and have been found
Fig. 25
Expansion in Major Segments of the
Gross National Product
Billion 1957 Dollars (ratio scale)
600
in which the corporate form of organization predominated. They made clear also
that, with corporate payrolls only moderately down, the matching reduction in
income centered in corporate profits. Dividends were maintained, nevertheless, partly because a cut in taxes cushioned the
decline in earnings available for distribution. As a result, only about one-third of
the total decline in corporate production
and in income generated was reflected in
a reduction of disbursements to the consuming public. With incomes in noncorporate production up, transfer payments
expanding, and personal taxes cut, total
disposable consumer income available for
spending and saving held steady or actually
increased throughout the 1953-54 recession period.
Here again, note must be taken of statistical limitations in the estimates. Source
data available on a quarterly basis do not
approach in statistical adequacy those
which underlie the annual measures of
profits and other income shares. To minimize the resulting margins of error, the
industrial and other classifications involved
have been condensed.
400
Private Nonfarm GNP
200
PERSONAL INCOME AND
OUTLAY
\
The second group of statistical tables relates to personal income and its disposition.
Assembled here are summaries of OBE's
studies of the geographic and size distributions of income, as well as annual and
shorter-period estimates of the national totals for personal income and expenditure
and their components.
100
80
60
40
20
State and Size Distributions
10
8
6
I I l I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I l I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I 1 I I I I I I 11 I I
1905
10
15
20
25
30
table 1-16). The principal generalizations
as to long-term growth made in Chapter 1
are drawn from these figures.
It must be emphasized that the pre-1929
series should be used with particular awareness of their statistical limitations. They
incorporate a great deal of painstaking research, undertaken in the course of a long
succession of private and governmental
studies. Nevertheless, their quality necessarily reflects the less developed state of
35
40
45
50
55
60
very useful in tracing the effects of initial
changes in demand through the economic
system.
For instance, these data illuminated one
of the most striking features of the 195354 business recession—the maintenance
of consumer income in the face of a decline in production and the income generated by it. The data showed that the
chief impact of the initial drop in final
demand was upon production in industries
Estimates of personal income—total and
per capita—are given by States and regions
for each year from 1929 on. Also provided
are supplementary measures, for selected
years, of disposable personal income which
allow for the differential effect of taxes on
the distribution of consumer purchasing
power.6
Underlying these summary tables is a
wealth of detailed information to be found
in the basic reports on personal income by
States.7 These reports show for each State
and region annual data since 1929 on the
composition of personal income by type,
with payrolls broken down in considerable
industry detail and proprietors' income distributed between farm and nonfarm. For
5. See tables 1-11, 1-14, and VI-10.
6. Tables II-8 through 11-10.
7. Charles F. Schwartz and Robert E. Graham,
Jr., op. ct., and latest annual report in the August
SUBVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS.
WHAT'S NEW IN THE PRESENT VOLUME
selected years, they likewise show for each
area the broad industrial sources of total
personal income and of civilian income received from employment (including selfemployment), as well as manufacturing
wage and salary disbursements by two-digit
industry groups.
Also appearing in the second part of the
Statistical Section are summaries of family
personal income distributed by income size.8
The tables show consumer units and their
income by dollar income brackets and by
quintiles arranged according to income size,
covering selected years from 1944 through
1956. Separate distributions by size of income are given for nonfarm families, farm
operators' families, and unattached individuals for the years 1953-56. (The 1956
data are shown in Figure 26.)
The income size tables, like those on the
geographic distribution of income, summarize a more detailed study of the subject. The basic reports on the income size
study 9 include distributions by income
after Federal jncome taxes and a variety
of ancillary data developed in the course
of the study: e. g., money income excluding imputed items, and data on family
composition by broad income size groups.
While the most obvious use of these personal income measures is as indicators of
the geographic and size distributions of
consumer incomes, they have a broader
significance for economic understanding.
The State series provide the most comprehensive available measures of business activity in the various States and regions, as
well as detailed descriptions of their economic structures. The use of these series
as the framework for studies of regional
economic development illustrates their applications in fields other than marketing.
The size estimates likewise depict conditions of major economic significance.
The statistical foundations of the State
and size distributions are described in the
reports cited above. A word should perhaps be said here about how State personal income and family personal income
differ from the familiar overall national
total which is reported monthly.10
In definition, State personal income is
identical with the national series except in
one respect—that payments by the Federal
Government to its civilian and military
personnel stationed outside the continental
United States are excluded from the State
figures. Family personal income is likewise
8. Tables 11-11 through 11-13.
0. Income Distribution in the United States, U. S
Government Printing Office, Washington, 1953, and
latest annual article in the SURVEY OF CURRENT
BUSINESS.
10. Apart from the conceptual differences noted
here, it should be observed that the latest (July
1958) revisions in the national total have not all
been carried into the State and size distributions
shown in the Statistical Section of the present
volume.
adjusted in line with the common sense of
such a measure. In particular, adjustments
are made to exclude income flows to military personnel not living with their
families, to institutional residents, and to
nonprofit institutions, as well as the undistributed incomes of private trust, welfare, and pension funds.11
New National Series
The tables on personal income on a national basis have been expanded in order
to introduce additional monthly and quarterly information.12 Manufacturing payrolls, available hitherto only on an annual
basis, will henceforth be reported currently, by month and quarter. A 4-way
breakdown of transfer payments will be
made available quarterly.
Additional monthly detail on proprietors' and property income is also presented. Because of gaps in the primary data
and other difficulties encountered in the
preparation of short-term income estimates, most of this detail has little significance of its own. It is provided mainly at
the request of analysts who need it to
round out their use of other monthly time
series that possess independent validity, or
to recombine monthly personal income
components in alternative forms. In addition, users will sometimes find such detail
helpful in tracing the exact source of
changes in the reported total of personal
income.
Appended to the quarterly and annual
tables is a measure of disposable personal
income in dollars of constant purchasing
power—a series frequently requested by
users of our data. A conceptual problem
posed by this new series should be mentioned. If disposable income is thought of
as the sum of consumption and saving, the
procedure of deflating the total by the implicit price index for personal consumption expenditures—as is done here—is seen
to be somewhat arbitrary. This procedure
may be justified pragmatically, however,
since income saved is a relatively small
part of the total and no clearly superior
alternative for deflating saving seems to be
available.
Annual information on consumer expenditures in constant dollars, detail on
which has heretofore been confined to the
totals for durables, nondurables, and services, is now shown separately for the major
subcategories of these in table 11-5. The
new series are provided in response to a
widespread demand for greater detail,
11. The unit of measurement is the family or unattached individual, as defined by the Census
Bureau. Families are groups of two or more persons
related by blood, marriage, or adoption and residing together; unattached individuals are persons,
other than institutional inmates, who are not living
with their relatives.
12. See tables II-I through II-3.
55
which has here been met within the practical limitations imposed by the basic price
data available and by special conceptual
difficulties met in deflating certain service
items in particular.
GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS
AND EXPENDITURES
The third group of tables brings together a greatly expanded set of materials
on the income and product flows involving
government.
New Quarterly Data
New quarterly tables show receipts and
expenditures in some detail, together with
the surplus or deficit on income and
product account. (See Figure 4 in Chapter 1.) These are presented separately for
the Federal Government and for State
and local governments as a group.13 They
are designed to provide an integrated, upto-date picture of developments in public
finance, as these developments affect the
national economy. The breakdown between Federal and other governments will
prove useful because of the substantially
different circumstances surrounding fiscal
operations at these two levels.
From the standpoint of carrying the
series forward on a current basis, the delayed availability of data on corporate
profits and profits tax accruals for the current quarter will present a special problem.
Depending on progress in the fields of data
collection and tabulation and on the particular economic conditions prevailing, it
may or may not prove feasible to estimate
this key revenue item on a preliminary basis
so as to complete the tables.
Expenditures by Function
and Object
A new annual table provides estimates
of government purchases and other expenditures classified by type of function
(table 111-8). The breakdown, relating
outlays to their end-purposes and indicating the costs of the various kinds of services rendered to the public, represents an
advance over the distributions previously
shown, which went no further in this direction than to distinguish defense from
nondefense outlays.
Of the many possible schemes for classifying the functions of government, the one
adopted for the present report is an inte13. Tables III-3 and III-4.
56
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL INCOME MEASURES
grated version of those employed in the
Budget of the United States Government
and in the reports of the Census Bureau on
State and local government finances. On
the whole, this classification is very similar
to one developed by the United Nations,
the grouping and nomenclature of which
were also taken iQto account.
It should be noted that the functional
classification of government expenditures
needs further work, conceptual as well as
statistical. At present not even the proper
goals of such a classification are definitely
established. For instance, specialists sometimes ask for a breakdown permitting the
separation of outlays which benefit business
from those which benefit consumers,
though it is doubtful whether this idea can
be implemented in practice. The present
classification is not designed for this purpose; the details shown might, however,
perhaps be rearranged in such a way as to
cast light on the matter.
The estimates for each functional category show Federal outlays separately from
those of State and local governments. A
further breakdown classifies outlays for
each function into purchases of goods and
services, transfer and interest payments,
and subsidies (net of government enterprise surpluses). In the case of the Federal
Government, grants-in-aid represent a
fourth category.
In connection with many of the functions, the goods and services purchased consist mainly of employee services. In the case
of others, substantial outlays for equipment,
construction, or materials are involved as
well. For major types of national defense
activities, and for education, two functional categories which are of particularly
great interest and of primary quantitative
importance, another new table shows expenditures for such major objects separately (table III—9). The object details
given represent a selection of the measures
Fig. 26
Distribution of Families and Individuals by
Size of Income in 1956
Percent
20
10
30
FARM OPERATOR FAMILIES
20
10
30
UNATTACHED INDIVIDUALS
10
Under 1 1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
Size of Family Personal Income—Thousand Dollars
10 & Over
found most useful in current analyses of the
GNP. As in other areas, a good deal of potentially valuable detail has had to be foregone because of data limitations.
Relation to Other Data
Closing the section on government
transactions is another set of tables which
has frequently been called for. These link
the receipt and expenditure aggregates in
the national income accounts to the corresponding totals in the United States
Budget and, for State and local governments, to those compiled by the Census
Bureau. The relationship of the income
and product measures, which are designed
specifically for economic analysis, to these
bodies of primary statistical data is of interest chiefly as providing a link facilitating
their joint use. For example, the new tables
will help users to translate reported budgetary developments into terms of shifts in
governmental demand for goods and services, and to evaluate the implications for
other parts of the national economy.
Moreover, many of the specific items involved in the reconciliation are of intrinsic interest because they illuminate aspects
of financial management.
In view of the importance of these tables
in economic analysis, we shall explain their
contents in some detail. The relation items
are grouped into a few broad categories.
(Overlapping items are classified for convenience according to the nature of their
principal components.) Such groups include those reconciling differences in (1)
agency coverage, (2) treatment with respect to netting and consolidation, (3)
time periods during which the transactions
reported are deemed to have been carried
out, and (4) handling of capital transactions.
Table 111-10, dealing with the Federal
Government, relates the "administrative"
and "cash" budgets to the statement of
Federal receipts and expenditures which
appears in the national income and product accounts. A detailed reconciliation between the Federal administrative and cash
budgets appears both in the Budget document itself (Special Analysis A) and in
current issues of the Treasury Bulletin.
The major components of this reconciliation, as summarized in table 111-10, are
adjustments made to the administrative
budget in order to consolidate the accounts
of trust funds, Government-sponsored enterprises, and the general and special funds
of the Treasury. Thus the cash-budget
totals already incorporate the principal
adjustments to be made for national in-
WHAT'S NEW IN THE PRESENT VOLUME
come purposes as to agency coverage as
well as to account consolidation.
With respect to agency coverage, a reverse adjustment of the Federal cash budget
is required to remove the totals for the
District of Columbia, since these are included with the State and local figures in
the national income statistics.
As regards consolidation and netting, the
following principal adjustments of the cash
budget are made. The Government's contributions to the veterans' life insurance
funds and the contributions of the Government and its employees to employee
retirement funds are consolidated out in
the cash budget as intragovernmental
transactions. They are added back both to
receipts and expenditures in the national
income accounts, where these payments
are treated as earned by the recipients and
invested by them in the funds.
Property income flows are reported
partly on a gross basis in the cash budget;
for national income purposes, governmental receipts of such income are netted
against payments by deducting them from
both sides of the cash budget.
The timing adjustments are required
mainly to convert the Government records
of transactions with business from a cash
basis to an accrual basis consistent with
their treatment in the business accounts.
Examples of items requiring such adjustment include business taxes—especially
corporate profits taxes—and Treasury
payments for goods delivered earlier or to
be delivered later.
A variety of other items which serve
essentially to adjust the time-reference of
transactions records are also shown. One
of these eliminates the time lag which
occurs between employers' withholding of
individual income taxes on their employees' pay and the forwarding of these sums
to the Treasury; the cash budget reflects
such collections only as they are covered
into the Treasury, while for national income purposes the collection is deemed to
have been made at the time of withholding.
Another adjustment which deserves mention is for GCG-guaranteed nonrecourse
loans to farmers. These enter the cash
budget only as the Government guarantee
is redeemed. In national income accounting, however, such loans are treated as
current purchases at the time they are
made (along with nonrecourse loans extended directly by the CCC).
The final group of adjustments to the
cash budget is required to eliminate receipts and expenditures reflecting transactions in financial and second-hand assets.
The present national income account for
Government (as for other transactor
groups) is designed to cover currentaccount transactions only. Capital-account
dealings are shown only in a statement for
the economy as a whole, in which transac
tions in financial and second-hand assets
cancel out.
Adjustments similar to those made for
the Federal Government are applied also
to the State and local government figures
reported by the Census Bureau (table III—
11). The agency coverage of the Census
totals is modified to exclude the State unemployment insurance funds, which are
held in trust by the Federal Government
and are treated as part of the Federal financial structure in the cash budget and
in the national income statistics alike.
Under the head of netting and consolidation, adjustments are required to convert
the transactions of government enterprises from a gross to a net basis; and entries paralleling those outlined above for
the Federal Government are made for
property income flows and government
contributions to government-employee retirement funds. Business tax receipts are
converted from a cash to an accrual basis;
and capital transactions are excluded both
from receipts and from expenditures.
FOREIGN
TRANSACTIONS
The present report incorporates an extensive revision in the handling of foreign
transactions, a reconciliation table explaining the difference between the national
income treatment of these and their treatment in the United States balance of international payments, and a substantial
volume of empirical data drawn from the
latter.
The changes in the handling of foreign
transactions can best be understood by reference to their previous treatment in the
national income accounts. In that treatment, foreign transactions were represented
in the GNP statement by the balance of
three items: (1) United States exports of
goods and services less (2) imports and less
(3) transfers (net)—gifts and grants—
made by this country to abroad.
New Treatment of Major
Categories
Exports of goods and services enter the
gross national product positively, because
they are a component of United States
output. Imports of foreign goods and services enter negatively, because they are included in the purchases of the various
market groups distinguished in the GNP
breakdown; they must therefore be deducted from the sum of these purchases
57
to derive from the purchases side a measure of output attributable to the United
States. The prior treatment of gifts and
grants was similar to that of imports because—along the then conventional lines—
these transfers were included in the purchase components of GNP as though they
represented imports of foreign services.
Inasmuch as any excess of receipts from
exports over payments for imports and
transfers must be matched by a corresponding change in the net international asset position of the United States, the balance of
these three items was labeled "net foreign
investment" in the former GNP statement.
In the new treatment of international
transactions adopted in the present volume,
net cash transfers made by the U. S. Government are no longer included in the Government-purchase component of the gross
national product. They are correspondingly omitted from the calculation of the
foreign entry, thus leaving total GNP unchanged. In conformity with this definitional change, that entry is now designated
as "net exports of goods and services." Also
to be noted, the underlying gross flows of
exports and imports are shown separately.
The Government grants formerly merged
with Government purchases are now recognized and labeled as grants in the national accounts: They appear as a new and
separate component of Government expenditures (leaving total Government expenditures unchanged). The counterentry is to
be found in the new foreign account. Designed to show the key flows affecting foreign trade, this account presents receipts
from exports as financed by payments for
imports, by net cash transfers from the U. S.
Government, and by funds made available
by United States investment abroad. In
the future, our regular reports on the GNP
will include a statement of the foreign
account in terms of these four measures.
The new treatment has several advantages. It introduces an analytically important distinction between Government purchases, on the one hand, and cash grants,
on the other. It makes the breakdown of
GNP conform consistently, and appropriately, to a measure of the flow of goods and
services to broad purchaser groups (instead
of expressing the foreign entry in terms of
the financial concept of net foreign investment). And it shows the net foreign balance in terms of the underlying gross
export and import totals, thus providing a
better view of the relative importance of
foreign trade to the United States economy.
It may be seen that some information
has been added by this revision in the
handling of foreign transactions, whereas
none has been lost. In particular, net foreign investment continues to be recorded
in the accounts even though it is no longer a
component of the gross national product.
58
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL INCOME MEASURES
Attention should be called to certain
more detailed definitional aspects of the
new treatment. The most important of
these relates to the exact line that has been
drawn to distinguish foreign aid in cash—
which is represented in the new tables by
an international transfer—from foreign aid
in kind, which continues to be reflected as a
purchase by Government. Cash aid is defined to include all aid involving the transfer of funds to a foreign agency or account;
aid in kind is aid not involving such a transfer of funds. The result of these definitions
is a concept of cash aid that is relatively
wide, and of aid in kind that is correspondingly narrow. Illustrative of a number of
borderline cases which are handled as cash
grants are the instances in which funds are
transferred for the purchase of specified
commodities. These are not analytically
very much different from direct shipment
of the commodity without any international
transfer of funds intervening.
In principle, it will have been noted, the
treatment of personal gifts (immigrant and
other private remittances) should have
been changed along with that of governmental aid transactions. In practice, because of the relatively small scale of private remittances, it has not seemed worthwhile to burden the accounts with the special transfer entries which would be required for a parallel treatment. Personal
remittances are therefore still handled as
consumer purchases.
The treatment of international flows of
public debt interest has been revised in
line with the interpretation placed on internal flows of such interest. All these government interest payments, international as
well as domestic, are now handled consistently as analogous to transfer payments.
Balance-of-Payments Bridge
In relation to the detailed statistics of
the balance of international payments
which are compiled by OBE, the main
difficulty with the former national income
tables on foreign transactions was the inconvenience met with in using the two
sets of materials together. Definitional differences between them are now explained
in table IV-4. These differences stem primarily from the points just considered,
each of which gives rise to entries in the
reconciliation table.14
Data Provided for Full View
The picture of United States foreign aid
which emerges in this framework is still
far from complete. Gash grants represent
only part of total United States foreign
assistance, which has taken the form also
of grants in kind and of Government loans.
Table IV-6 provides a summary view of
the entire program. It shows aid outlays
distributed by form—grants and long- and
short-term credits—and by military and
nonmilitary character, a broad geographic
breakdown being given for each of the
latter. These data are drawn from a separate and continuing OBE study of foreign
aid as such. It should be noted that they
differ somewhat in the definitions and timing of specific transactions from the balance-of-payments summaries.15 They are
shown here in highly condensed form; a
large volume of supporting material on
the types and geographic patterns of aid
expenditures is available in other OBE
publications.16
A summary of the balance of payments
is given in table IV-5. 17 This table shows
annual data on exports, imports, and transfers, with information on each conforming
to that in the quarterly balance-of-payments reports published in the SURVEY. Extensive geographical detail on all of these
items and further breakdowns by type for
most of them are published in the regular
balance-of-payments publications of the
OBE. The most recent of these is the Balance of Payments Statistical Supplement.18
SAVING AND
INVESTMENT
Of critical importance in the economic
process are the flow of saving into productive investment and the contributions of
the capital so accumulated to output and
to income. The Office of Business Economics has been concerned for many years
with the study of this subject, both in connection with the national income and
product and through other programs.
The most widely used and economically
significant of these OBE studies have been
brought together in condensed form in the
fifth group of tables. Included also are
certain tabulations, supplied by other agen14. From total exports of goods and services as
given in the balance-of-payments statement, there
are deducted (1) military grants and other grants
in kind, which are still treated as Government purchases rather than as exports in the national income
accounts, and (2) the inflow of interest to U. S.
Government. (It may be noted that the latter item
is used as a statistical approximation of interest
payments by foreign governments.)
Imports of goods and services as given are adjusted by adding personal remittances and deducting public-debt interest paid to foreigners.
A third subsection of the table summarizes net
balances on goods and services according to the balance-of-payments and national income definitions.
A fourth quantifies the differences between the
two definitions of international transfers. From
the balance-of-payments measure we deduct military and nonmilitary transfers in kind as well as
private remittances, and we add the net outflow of
public-debt interest. It may be noted that these
adjustments are the obverse of those made to the
balance-of-payments totals for goods and services.
Finally, the table shows how net foreign investment can be derived as the net balance of exports
less imports and transfers (by either the balanceof-payments or the national income definitions, since
the adjustments merely rearrange items without
altering the balance of debits and credits).
cies, which have been part of the annual
national income reports since 1947.
Unlike the other statistical tables, this
set contains a substantial amount of material not yet integrated into the national
income accounts. A research project now
under way has as one of its major aims the
remedying of this situation, which is a
source of trouble when the attempt is made
to use the data in conjunction with one
another.
Fixed Investment
Following the familiar summary of
Sources and Uses of Gross Saving which
introduces this set of tables, there appears
a detailed breakdown of investment in the
form of new construction. This is given
not only in current dollars as before but
also, somewhat condensed, in dollars of
constant purchasing power (table V - I V ) .
For the most part, the deflation here has
been accomplished by the use of cost indexes. In the regular constant-dollar GNP
tables, it may be noted, we have modified
these cost indexes to reflect changes in
profit margins—a modification which
renders them more suitable for use in deflation since such margins are of course
included in the current value of construction activity.
The construction statistics are prepared
by the Business and Defense Services Administration of the Commerce Department
in cooperation with the Department of
Labor. They are supported by further
breakdowns of various types in the reports
of these other agencies.
The standard GNP table showing private purchases of producers' durable equipment by type of product is likewise now
presented in constant dollars (table V-6)
as well as current dollars. These materials,
like the construction activity details, represent important elements in the three-way
classification of capital formation by commodity type and by the industry and legal
form of the purchaser—which, as explained
later, we consider most essential for effective analysis.
Regrettably, data problems encountered
in the estimation of the current-dollar
series have so far prevented breakdowns of
producers5 durables from being carried
15. A detailed reconciliation appears in the Balance of Payments Statistical Supplement (Washington, U. S. Government Printing Office, July 1958,
$1.00).
16. See Foreign Grants and Credits by the United
States Government (Washington, Office of Business
Economics, quarterly).
Foreign Aid by the United States Government,
1940-51, a supplement to the SURVEY OF CURRENT
BUSINESS (Washington, U. S. Government Printing
Office, 1952, $1.00) and annual articles appearing
in the April issue of the Survey.
17. For international capital transactions, see
table V-II in the Statistical Section.
18. See footnote 15 above.
WHAT'S NEW IN THE PRESENT VOLUME
forward beyond 1954. (See discussion of
this problem in Chapter 8.)
All these tables on construction and
equipment outlays are essentially breakdowns of regular components of the gross
national product. Related to them and
utilized in estimating these components,
but differing somewhat in categories both
of goods and of purchasers covered, are the
widely used OBE-SEG tabulations of new
plant and equipment expenditures by
United States business (table V-7).
These are based on quarterly surveys
which gather information on recent past
and anticipated future outlays. The survey
results are analyzed regularly in the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS, where a
variety of supplementary material is provided to support and illuminate the standard industry breakdown. The latter breakdown is given in table V-7, where it
represents industry-of-purchaser detail of
the type required for the three-way classification just mentioned.
Sources and Uses of Funds
An analysis of personal saving in terms
of estimated balance-sheet changes has
been included in the national income statistics through a tabulation showing Securities and Exchange Commission estimates
of personal saving and a comparison with
Department of Commerce estimates. This
tabulation is presented in a rearranged
form as table V-9, with a shift in emphasis
to bring out the totals and details of
real and financial investment and of net
borrowing.
Broadly paralleling this account of personal saving and how it is used are two
regular OBE tabulations which deal respectively with the sources and uses of
corporate funds and with capital transactions in the balance of payments.
The former (table V—10) sets corporate
plant, equipment, and inventory investment in the perspective of the corporations'
internal fund sources, long-term and other
external sources, and changes in financial
assets. It is a principal tool for the understanding of developments in investment
finance.
The tabulation of the balance of payments on capital account (table V - l l )
is a section of the regular balance-of-payments statement published quarterly by the
Office of Business Economics. It details
the applications of United States investment funds abroad—including loans by the
U. S. Government—and of foreign funds
in this country.
Together, these three tables reflect most
of the financial transactions involved in
the flow of national saving to gross private
and net foreign investment. As has been
noted, they have not been articulated with
466759 0—59
5
one another. Because of definitional and
statistical differences among them, crosscomparisons and other types of analysis
involving the use of the three in conjunction are possible only on a very general
level.
Capital in Manufacturing
The saving and investment part of the
Statistical Section ends with a group of
annual tabulations dealing with physical
investment in manufacturing since 1929.19
In these, gross private purchases of
structures and of equipment are given in
current and constant dollars. Annual depreciation charges are measured on the
basis of the same valuations (and also in
terms of original cost). Net formation of
structure and equipment capital is shown
in current dollars and constant dollars as
the difference between the purchase and
depreciation series, and this measure is
supplemented by correspondingly valued
series on inventory change to account comprehensively for net tangible private capital formation in manufacturing establishments. Finally, estimates of net stocks of
structures and of equipment are derived by
the "perpetual inventory" method—i. e.,
essentially by differencing gross purchases
and the depreciation accruing on them.
These estimates, taken together with a
series on total inventory holdings, give a
complete picture of the real asset structure
of manufacturing over the past 30 years.
The results of this study are key materials for an understanding not only of the
changing composition of capital but also
of its relationships to output, income, and
employment. Illustrating some of the
types of conclusions possible from these
data are several which are discussed in detail—and with proper qualifications—in
the November 1956 issue of the SURVEY:
the shift in form of fixed capital from plant
to equipment; the relatively greater
growth since 1929 in the stock of capital
than in the annual man-hour input; and
the sharper uptrend in output than in the
value of capital applied to production.
(See Figure 27.)
Materials for Basic Study
All these newly introduced bodies of
data may be viewed, in conjunction with
those which were also included in earlier
reports on the national income, as building-blocks for use in OBE's study of saving and investment.
One aspect of this study centers around
the preparation of separate accounts for
19. Tables V-12 through V-15u
50
each of the major saver-investor groups.
Into these will fit improved and mutually
consistent versions of the tables on personal
saving and its disposition, on corporate
fund sources and uses, and on the capital
transactions in the balance of payments.
Certain deficiencies of these tabulations
from the standpoint of such use in their
present form have already been noted.
Various conceptual and statistical inconsistencies among them need to be resolved.
The figures on fixed investment provide an
important example. Involved here is the
relationship between the plant and equipment survey data used in the personal and
corporate fund-use tables, on the one
hand, and the totals for construction and
equipment spending which are included in
the GNP, on the other. The basic source
materials underlying these two sets of
tables seem at times to conflict in the
movement they indicate for fixed capital
outlays.
Many of the other series included also
call for more precise definition, and for
strengthening of their statistical foundations both to reduce margins of error and
to permit more adequately detailed
presentation.
A coordinate part of the saving and investment project is aimed at developing
measures of capital formation, consumption, and stocks in the economy along the
lines indicated by the special tabulations
here presented for manufacturing. The
value bases and other aspects of capital
change are to receive intensive study in
this connection.
Further discussion of this project is deferred to the next chapter.
INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT
BY INDUSTRY
In this section are brought together all
the standard industry tables on the origins
of the components of total national income, on the number of employees and
their average annual earnings, on the number of persons engaged in production, and
on corporate sales.
In addition, there is included for the first
time a breakdown of depreciation charges
for corporate business by industry and for
noncorporate business by industry division.
These new data have been much in demand for use in deriving "gross" variants
of business and national income originating. Most of the values shown represent
charges allowable for tax purposes, which
reflect acquisition cost to the holder. Farm
depreciation is presented on a replacement
cost basis, however, and personally owned
housing (in the real estate industry) is depreciated in terms of its original construction cost.
Work on alternative economic measures
60
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL INCOME MEASURES
of capital consumption has been initiated;
because of the numerous theoretical difficulties and data gaps involved, the present
concepts are the only one for which measures both comprehensive and detailed can
be provided for some time to come.
Also included in this part of the Statistical Section is the quarterly breakdown of
corporate profits by broad industry groups
(table VI-10) to which attention has been
drawn earlier. This is presented on a seasonally adjusted basis, incorporating the
results of an extended study of typical quarterly patterns. Since these patterns are in
general clearer and more consistent in data
adjusted to eliminate inventory gains and
losses, the seasonals have been removed using data so adjusted. Corresponding details for book profits are not available.
Quarterly profits are shown in total without seasonal adjustment and including and
excluding inventory valuation gains in the
final part (VII) of the Statistical Section,
which also contains a variety of other supplementary tables.
were based in part on extensive studies and
investigations which it conducted on its
own, including a canvass not only of the
producers of the national accounts but also
of the main groups of users, including business, labor, and university economists. In
addition, the Review Committee took into
account the results of the 1955 meeting of
Fig. 27
Increase in Manufacturing
Output, 1929 to 1957
Related to Labor and
Capital Expansion
Percent
150 —
100 —
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS REVIEW
COMMITTEE
Completion of the portion of OBE's
work program discussed in this chapter
covers most of the needs in this field that
could be implemented with the resources
made available for collection and processing of primary statistical data for national
income estimation. These needs were reviewed with the National Accounts Review
Committee that last year reported on the
status of the United States economic accounts. Meeting these needs is an outcome
of OBE's progress in recent years; this permitted what may appear to be a quick
implementation of the Committee's recommendations.
The Review Committee, consisting of a
representative group of economists connected with private organizations, was organized in late 1956 by the National Bureau
of Economic Research, at the request of
the U. S. Bureau of the Budget, to review
and appraise the national economic accounts and present recommendations for
their improvement. Its report was completed in the middle of 1957 and appears
as an appendix to last year's congressional
hearings on the national economic accounts.20
The recommendations of the NARC
20. XL S. Congress. Joint Economic Committee :
The National Economic Accounts of the United
States. Hearings before Subcommittee on Economic Statistics, 85th Congress, 1st session, October 29 and 30, 1957, Washington, U. S. Government Printing Office, 1957. In this volume, a
statement by Charles F. Schwartz, Assistant Director of the Office of Business Economics, sets
forth OBE's development program snowing its
agreement with major recommendations of the
National Accounts Review Committee.
50
-
Production
:
Physical
Capital*
Man-Hours
Including inventories and
government - owned assets
the Conference on Research in Income and
Wealth, which was devoted to an appraisal
of the United States national income and
product accounts. To this meeting we contributed a detailed review of the conceptual
basis of the official accounts, as well as discussions of the various proposals concerning
these accounts which were made by other
participants.21
The recommendations of the Review
Committee for the national income work
can be grouped under three principal headings: Definitions of the major aggregates;
presentation of the existing data and of
various additional sets of estimates capable
of early completion; and future developmental work desirable for the longer term.
Comment on Major Aggregates
The overall scope and definition of the
major aggregates are scarcely touched at
all by the many separate recommendations
contained in the Review Committee's re21. See the paper by George Jaszi on "The Conceptual Basis of the Accounts," and replies to other
papers, in Studies in Income and Wealth, Volume 22.
Princeton University Press for National Bureau of
Economic Research, 1958.
port. The measures of national income and
of gross national product would be changed
only to a minor extent—principally by the
addition of interest paid on the debt of
State and local governments, which is not
included in our measures of the Nation's
output. The Committee's proposal for this
change emerged from a weighing of pros
and cons involved in controversial theoretical questions of long standing, and is
one with which we do not agree.
Personal income and disposable income,
under the Committee's suggestions, would
be changed only to include transfer payments to individuals from abroad—an item
of very small magnitude which is now
netted against the corresponding inflow (a
component of consumer outlay). The practical reasons for not introducing this change
have been noted earlier in connection with
our discussion of the revised treatment of
international transactions.
In this summing up of the Review Committee's recommendations with respect to
their effect on the aggregates, we do not
wish to imply that the individual Committee members regard the definitions which
have been adopted in the national income
and product accounts as representing a
wholly satisfactory and fully settled state
of affairs. The definition under which national output can most usefully be measured is in part a matter of judgment requiring some difficult and controversial
decisions, and the Committee encountered
a number of areas which always have presented problems to the national income
technicians. In general, however, the Committee felt that the present handling of
these areas was as adequate as might be
expected pending further developments in
the field. In a few instances it quite advisedly has recommended the provision of
alternative, supplementary measures, in reflection not only of an unsettled state of
professional opinion but also of the need
for different measures to serve different
purposes.
Shorter Term Proposals
While proposals of the National Accounts Review Committee would not alter
significantly any of the basic aggregates,
they called for certain changes in the detailed material. Improvements introduced
in the present volume which may be considered to be in line with the major shortrange recommendations of the Committee
are referred to below.
Particularly to be noted among these
is the 5-account system which introduces
the statistical tables. The basic changes
represented by this system, which are reviewed above, have been rather uniformly
in the direction which found approval in
the NARC Report. (As the Committee remarks, to a great extent the same principles
WHAT'S NEW IN THE PRESENT VOLUME
were already embodied in the quarterly
tables of the national income and product.)
It will be observed, incidentally, that
changes in the categories of transactions
distinguished have been held to a selected
few in the present version, pending further
study. The particular set of account stubs
shown in Appendix A of the Committee's
report—designated as "tentative and
. . . not to be regarded as a specific recommendation by the Committee"—presents certain difficulties: e. g., it leaves no
place in the system for national income and
for corporate profits as such, and it calls
for a redefinition of personal income which
is not advocated in the body of the report
itself.
The first group of tables in the Statistical
Section of the present volume contains several innovations which bear on requests
made by the Committee. One of these represents the fruition of OBE's work on the
measurement of real gross product on a
quarterly basis. The new tabulations of current-dollar and real gross product in terms
of durables, nondurables, services, and construction may also be mentioned, along
with those of GNP by producer group—
nonfarm business, government, agriculture,
etc. The former will, in the words of the
Review Committee's report, "permit users
to treat purchases of consumer durables
and government outlays for structures and
equipment as capital expenditures which
increase the stock of material wealth," if
they wish. The producer-group breakdown
is one requested for use in analysis of output as related to employment and manhours.
The extension of the current- and constant-dollar gross national product estimates back to 1909 likewise fills a longrecognized gap which was stressed by the
Committee.
In the second group of tables, dealing
with personal income and outlay, we have
made several additions which relate to
views of the NARC. Most noteworthy are
the constant-dollar estimates of consumer
expenditures for the major subcategories of
durables, nondurables, and services, which
are in line with the Committee's recommendation for finer breakdowns of the
annual figures.
Among the additions made to the government tables, there are five which deal
with subject matters of particular concern
to the Review Committee. One is the functional classification of expenditures. The
added object breakdown of government
purchases is another. The systematic reconciliation of our measures of receipts and
expenditures with those of the Federal
Budget and the Census Bureau was specifically endorsed, and a wish was indicated
for a quarterly measure of the Federal surplus or deficit such as we now provide. A
fifth change—the reclassification of cash
foreign aid to treat it as a transfer rather
than a purchase outlay—is only partly in
the direction of the Committee's preference.
With regard to this last point, we have
not followed the Committee's proposal to
extend the same treatment to aid in kind.
One reason for not taking this further step
of imputing a payment and a foreign purchase in the case of aid rendered in kind is
that we doubt its analytical superiority—a
doubt which seems to be reflected, with respect to the military-aid component which
dominates the total, on page 199 of the
NARC report. Also, there is the logical difficulty of restricting the notion of government transfers in kind once such a notion
is applied to any purchased good or service.
As indicated by the earlier discussion in
this chapter, we believe that the broader
definition of foreign aid should be implemented statistically through supplementary
tables, rather than in the main GNP statement itself. Therefore, in this case, and in
two or three others which have been handled more summarily than in the classification scheme of the Review Committee's
report, the new set of national income statistics contains the information required for
a different treatment if desired by the user.
The quarterly and annual tables on foreign transactions in the national income
accounts likewise include several features
which have the effect of adapting them
along the lines of preference of the Committee. Chief among these is the presentation of exports and imports of goods and
services on a gross basis, with transfers and
investment shown in their role as helping
to finance such trade. Again—a minor
point elaborated by the Committee—the
inflows and outflows of public-debt interest are now isolated and treated like transfer payments.
61
The saving and investment part of the
Statistical Section brings together the
initial contributions to our major project
under way in this field. This is a key
area where the Review Committee joined
others in calling for further progress in
OBE's national income accounts.
Tables which incorporate rudimentary
sector saving-investment accounts are
shown for persons, corporations (other
than banks and insurance companies), and
foreigners dealing with the United States
on capital account. Detail on real fixed investment is included for the first time, in
the form of constant-dollar tables on construction activity and producers' durable
equipment. Both these and the breakdown
of plant and equipment outlay by industry
of purchaser which is now introduced into
the standard set of national income tables
represent steps toward the three-way classification of fixed investment which the
Committee, like ourselves, finds most important for analysis in this area. Finally,
the special tables for manufacturing include much information—such as depreciation valued at constant cost and at replacement cost—which fits into the Committee's suggested program for improved
measures of real capital and changes
therein.
Developmental Work
As will be seen in the next chapter from
our discussion of the needed directions of
future research in national income, we
find our views broadly consistent with most
of the major suggestions which the National Accounts Review Committee makes
for longer range developmental work—including in particular the pointed emphasis on more and better source data as essential for the effective implementation of
such programs.
With respect to this latter basic requirement endorsed by the Committee, it is our
hope that a broad Government program
will be established to close data gaps and
to speed up the production of primary information—steps which are necessary for
significant improvement in the present national income and product estimates and
for the success of developmental projects in
this field.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL
INCOME MEASURES
6. Directions of
Mure Research
A balanced program for national income
work must have two main elements. One
is to strengthen the statistical quality of
the existing measures. The other is to improve the national income accounts conceptually and extend them to areas of the
economy not now adequately covered.
Before we turn to a discussion of developmental work proper, it must be stressed
that a major part of our effort will continue
to be in the statistical area. Our plans here
are shaped by the fact that the National
Income Division is a processor rather than
a collector of primary data. Its chief role
is to point up significant data gaps and to
promote and help design steps to fill them.
Such steps represent the key to any
major improvement in the reliability of
the estimates. An increase in the resources
available to OBE for its processing function may also be expected to yield gains in
accuracy. While limited by comparison
with those possible from data improvement,
these gains will nevertheless be very substantial in relation to the cost involved.
Similar comments apply to the proposals for developmental work. Continued
advances may be anticipated with the resources now at hand, but adequate progress requires both an increase in the staff
available for work directly on the national
accounts and the gathering of additional
statistical data.
Since resources are necessarily scarce,
one must be selective in planning how to
use them. There are, in our judgment, real
priorities in the sequence in which desired
objectives should be met. The projects that
will be discussed in this chapter could become the elements of a balanced program,
under moderately optimistic assumptions
as to the supply of data and the staff for
processing them.
In outlining the particular areas of research where we feel progress would be
most desirable, we shall refer to the types
of data improvement likely to be most
helpful. This will permit a view of the
work of the data-collecting agencies of the
Federal Government in the light of what
is needed for the development of the na62
tional income accounts. Obviously no detailed listing of data requirements is
possible or necessary at this stage. Yet there
are certain immediate or basic requirements that clearly should be stressed.
tant example is the strengthening of our
program in the field of business anticipations, in which a rich harvest in terms of
economic guidance has rewarded our past
work.
Saving-Investment Accounts
THE INVESTMENT
PROCESS
The Office of Business Economics has
for many years been engaged in the measurement and analysis of various aspects of
the saving-investment process, a key element in the functioning of our economy.
This work is being more closely integrated
and extended further.
The core of the project, from the national income standpoint, is the elaboration of the saving-investment information
now contained in the national accounts.
The work involved here has to do with the
improved measurement of saving and capital formation, on the one hand, and of the
associated financial flows, on the other.
As in our work in general, we shall
endeavor to present the new information
in a conceptual framework well adapted
to the needs of economic analysis. We also
plan to give full attention to data problems. In the derivation of the new measures, existing sources will be used as intensively as possible, and needs for additional data programs will be formulated
and brought to the attention of the Budget
Bureau and of the data-collecting agencies.
And, in deciding upon the detail in which
the new measures are to be designed, we
shall be guided closely by the adequacy and
reliability of the primary information
available to construct them.
It should be noted that the OBE savinginvestment program includes a number of
developmental and analytical projects
which lie beyond the sphere of national income accounting per se} and which will
therefore not be reviewed here. An impor-
The basic framework for tying the new
information together will be a set of saving-investment or fund sources-and-uses
statements for major economic groups,
along lines which the National Accounts
Review Committee viewed with approval
in contemplating the directions to be followed in extending our work.
These statements can be viewed as deconsolidations of the present national saving-investment account (see table V - l of
the Statistical Section). In this table, the
savings or surpluses of the major economic
groups, carried forward from their respective current accounts, are matched by the
various kinds of capital formation. The
proposed accounts will be set up along
the same general lines, but will also show
transactions in financial assets and liabilities among domestic groups as they affect,
or are influenced by, the real changes in
saving and investment. These transactions
—the means by which much of the national
saving is effected and real investment made
possible—cancel out when the accounts of
the various groups are consolidated into a
national statement.
Proceeding along institutional lines
similar to those drawn in the present national income accounts, we plan to establish
separate saving-investment or sources-anduses accounts for individuals and for government. To these will be added similar
accounts for nonfinancial corporations and
for financial institutions. A statement
covering international capital transactions
will complete the set. Like the summary
current accounts, the new saving-investment statements will be supplemented by
a set of tables which will contain supporting detail.
Our present plans provide for informa-
DIRECTIONS
tion only on an annual basis. We shall, in
addition, explore the possibilities of
shorter term measurement; however, the
statistical problems—stemming from the
general insufficiency of the data, their lack
of synchronization, and their seasonal
variability—are very large.
The manner in which saving-investment
information is to be provided within the
framework of the national accounts has
merely been sketched above. The following discussion will deal further with the
economic groups to be distinguished, and
with the measurement of their financial
and real saving-investment transactions.
The plans are subject to further specification and modification in the light of the
conceptual work that remains to be done,
and in the light of the data problems that
will be encountered as we proceed in their
implementation.
Treatment of Major Groups
As now defined, the personal segment of
the economy covers nonprofit institutions
and private pension and welfare funds
along with consumer households. For analysis of the saving-investment process, it
would be desirable to have separate information on these entities. There are several
alternative ways in which the separation
can be effected; these are being studied,
taking into account the requirements of
analysis as well as the statistical information available to implement them.
Another splitup of the personal saving-
investment account that would be of great
interest would separate the transactions of
major types of families—families headed
by farm proprietors, nonfarm entrepreneurs and wage-and-salary earners, for
instance. The basic statistical information
necessary to make these distinctions would
be extremely difficult and costly to obtain,
however, and there is little hope that it will
become available on a regular basis in the
foreseeable future.
In the absence of empirical data, attempts have been made to segregate entrepreneurial saving on the basis of a variety
of assumptions—all of them, however,
based on the common premise that it is
possible to distinguish the saving-investment transactions in which an entrepreneur engages in his business capacity from
those in which he engages in a personal
or consumer capacity. We do not believe
that the entrepreneur himself is aware of
such a distinction; nor is such a distinction
embodied in existing business accounting
records. Accordingly, we do not plan to
introduce this vivisection of the entrepreneurial personality into the national
accounts.
The government fund sources-and-uses
statement should be subdivided to distinguish Federal from State and local governments. This project and possible extensions of it will be referred to in our statement concerning research on the government accounts.
As to the further subdivision of the corporate nonfinancial group, we have done
some work in the past on the breakdown
of sources and uses of corporate funds
Fig. 28
Financing Corporate Capital Requirements
Cumulative, 1947-1957
Fixed outlays dominated
use of funds
Over half of funds obtained
from internal sources
80
OF FUTURE RESEARCH
63
along broad industrial lines, and hope to
strengthen and extend this work in the
national income framework.
The new financial sector that has been
proposed likewise calls for further breakdowns. These should segregate, e. g., the
saving-investment transactions of the commercial banking system and of life insurance companies, in their entirety or on a
more selective basis.
In dealing with financial institutions, we
shall have in mind the role of the national
accounts as tools of general economic analysis. Information will be developed so as
to shed light on overall business conditions;
we are not concerned with additional financial detail, however essential it may be for
other uses such as the technical analysis of
the money and capital markets. The development of the latter type of materials is
in the province of other agencies.
Financial Transactions
For the classifying of financial transactions, we shall need a uniform scheme for
grouping financial assets and liabilities—
one that is both useful for broad economic
analysis and capable of being carried
through the major accounts on the basis of
the statistical information that can be made
available. Needless to say, this general
scheme should be supplemented (through
the device of supporting tables) by additional detail of analytical interest for
specific economic groups.
A kindred set of issues is concerned with
whether transactions within such groups
should be presented on a consolidated or
a combined basis and the extent to which
they should be netted or grossed. Here
again, conclusions stemming from the requirements of economic analysis should be
judged in the light of what is statistically
feasible.
Tangible Investment
60 -
40 -
20 -
0
Liquid
Assets
Other
Working
Capital
Fixed
Capital
Other
Our program proposal for measuring
tangible investment calls for a comprehensive and consistent set of estimates of
private fixed capital formation, with breakdowns of the national total by type of commodity (structure or equipment), by purchasing industry, and by legal form of
investor. The estimates of inventory investment should also be improved. With a reasonable strengthening of present data
sources along the lines suggested by our
methodological review in Chapter 8, and
some additional information from the
plant and equipment survey, it would be
possible to make real progress toward these
goals.
The legal-form breakdowns of fixed in-
64
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL INCOME MEASURES
vestment which are proposed will link these
series directly with the accounting framework outlined above. To the extent that
data by legal form can be cross-classified by
commodity and industry, the link will be
improved. The data situation limits the
possibilities in this direction, however, and
the intrinsic analytical interest of such
cross-classifications would not justify a
major data-gathering effort.
tial uses of the results in economic analysis
or imposed by the gaps in the basic information, however, we can probably elaborate our measurement of these items.
Judging from work we have done in the
past (see the March 1943 issue of the
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS), it would
seem feasible to supplement our existing
series on consumer purchases of durables
with associated measures of current use, as
reflected in their depreciation. These purchase and depreciation measures could
then be used, together with available
Capital Consumption and
Stocks
Fig. 29
State and Local
Governments
Another facet of our proposed work in
the saving and investment area is the development of capital consumption measures supplementary to those now included
in the national accounts. (This project, it
will be noted, implies alternative series on
net business incomes and savings also.)
As is well known, our present depreciation charges are mostly byproducts of
income tax accounting. They are based on
a valuation of capital equipment at its
cost to the current owner. These values
are depreciated on the basis of assumptions
as to useful life and conventions as to time
phasing which have no clear economic
foundations and are, moreover, affected by
such partly extraneous factors as changes
in the income tax laws or their administration.
For many analytical purposes it would
be desirable to put the measures of capital
consumption on alternative valuation
bases—for instance a current-dollar valuation which would make them comparable
with the current-dollar series on gross capital formation, or a constant-dollar basis
which would make them comparable with
the constant-dollar series. Also desirable
are measures utilizing time patterns of depreciation that are more realistic from an
economic standpoint than the present conventional ones.
Needless to say, formidable conceptual
and statistical problems are encountered
in pursuing this line of inquiry, but it
would be desirable to press forward toward
estimates of net capital formation—and of
the resulting net capital stocks—for the
economy as a whole and for its major
segments.
direct information, in making estimates of
net stocks of consumer durables.
As noted earlier, we have made some
progress in segregating government purchases of structures and equipment (see
tables VII-5 and VII-6 in the Statistical
Section), and we shall urge improvements
in data collection necessary to strengthen
these estimates (see Chapter 8).
Consumers and Government
JJata Sources
We have no plans for extending our
present concept of capital formation to
embrace consumer durables or structures
and equipment acquired by government.
Within the limits suggested by the poten-
The tables assembled in part V of the
Statistical Section provide a great deal of
material for the integrated study of saving
and investment just outlined. In particular,
the tables on personal saving and its disposition (V-9), the sources and uses of cor-
Sources and Uses of Funds
Cumulative, 1948-57
BILLION DOLLARS
100-
80-
Borrow- •
60-
ed. Grants
ing
;
Roodl
40-
Construction
(incl. land)
iii
Operating
Surplus
20 —
0
888
1im
Sssu
Sources
I Increase I
I in Liquid|
Assets
Uses
porate funds (V-10 and Figure 28), and
the balance of payments on capital account
( V - l l ) constitute the basis for the construction of the proposed saving-investment accounts for persons, nonfinancial
corporations, and international transactions.
Additional work on these tables will be
required, however, because, produced at
different times for different purposes, they
were not designed as parts of an interrelated accounting system. They must bq
made consistent with one another and with
the national income accounts.
Also, it may be noted that these tabled,
as they now stand, are statistically quite
rough in spots. Many of their deficiencies
and inconsistencies, which began to emerge
clearly only when they came to be viewed
as parts of a whole, can be remedied even
on the basis of existing information; intensive work along these lines is a major
aspect of the saving-investment study.
Basically, however, the statistical quality
of the tables will depend on the availability
of new and improved data sources. Most of
the data that are necessary are required
also for the strengthening of the statistical
foundations of our present estimates, as indicated in Chapter 8. Particularly relevant
are the comments relating to capital formation and to business incomes—broadening
the scope of the data-collection programs
needed for the latter to refer not only to
incomes proper but also to the surrounding
balance sheet items. In the area of unincorporated business, especially, the information now available is weak.
The accounts for financial institutions
will be based mainly on balance sheet information collected by the Internal Revenue Service and various regulatory agencies. The governmental account will be derived from Federal fiscal statistics and from
State and local fiscal statistics as summarized by the Census Bureau. The principal
data gaps are in the materials for certain
types of financial institutions and for State
and local governmental units.
A special statistical problem that should
perhaps be mentioned, as common to the
entire set of the proposed saving-investment accounts, is that of the "float"—
broadly defined to include checks in transit,
commercial instruments in the mail, and
goods in the process of being shipped. This
float threatens to disturb the synchronization of the various accounts even if the
basic statistical information is quite reliable
in all other respects. An effort will be made
to sort out the accounting procedures giving rise to timing discrepancies, and to utilize existing information as well as to suggest new data programs that can be used
to eliminate them.
Our major project to date in the estimation of variant measures of depreciation,
and of net capital formation and net capi-
DIRECTIONS
tal stocks, is the study of manufacturing
summarized in tables V-12 to V-15 of the
Statistical Section. (See Figure 30.) Several types of information are needed before we can proceed confidently to the
preparation of similar estimates for other
major sectors and for the economy as a
whole.
First, we need the comprehensive and
consistent set of data on gross investment
to which reference has already been made.
Most urgently required are the commodity
and industry breakdowns; the legal-form
information would also be helpful.
Secondly, much more information is required on the length of economic life and
on the time pattern of use of the various
types of structures and equipment. The
only comprehensive data now available on
this subject are the tabulations in Bulletin
"F" of the IRS. The appropriateness of
this information has frequently been questioned.
Thirdly, improved price information is
needed on capital goods items. Statistical
study of these is hampered by the pervasiveness of extreme quality change stemming from technological progress. This
whole aspect of price measurement is one
in which definite knowledge is largely lacking. Even limited projects—such as a precise evaluation of the bearing of standard
practices of price index number construction on the measurement of quality
change—would be useful.
With information of the three types
specified, it would be possible to make
much better estimates of net capital formation, and of capital stocks based upon
the perpetual inventory method, which involves the cumulation of successive increments of net capital change. Finally, it
would be desirable to have periodic benchmark data on the existing stocks of various
types of durable assets, against which the
results of the perpetual inventory method
could be checked.
This report also contains additional
breakdowns of real product by sector or
industry. Specifically, the total is subdivided into gross product originating in
farm and nonfarm business, in government, in households and institutions, and
in transactions with foreign countries. The
procedures by means of which these estimates are derived have been discussed in
Chapter 5.
65
OF FUTURE RESEARCH
Double Deflation Approach
In principle, constant-dollar gross product originating in each industry should be
determined by estimating the industry's
sales and inventory change in constant-dollars and deducting from the sum of these
its constant-dollar purchases of intermediate products from all other industries. If
measures so derived are consolidated, inter-
Fig. 30
Real Net Capital in Manufacturing
Shift in Composition Accompanies Large Growth
Billion 1957 Dollars (ratio scale)
200
Total
^ ^ ^
100
80 60
STRUCTURES
40
—
—
INVENTORIES
20 —
10
^ ^ o ^ ^
j LJ LJ 1 1_! 1
1925
30
:\5
t t
J
»-• * ^
/
EQUIPMENT
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | | |
40
45
50
55
60
END OF YEAR
REAL PRODUCT
BY INDUSTRY
The Office of Business Economics' basic
measure of the real GNP (table 1-2) is
derived by deflating the various final products by appropriate price indexes. The
breakdown yielded directly by the present
methodology is therefore essentially one by
type of commodity or service purchased.
In the present report we have extended
the hitherto published breakdowns of this
kind by providing comprehensive series on
total GNP by major type of product, and
new detail relating both to real consumption and fixed capital formation.
This type of breakdown of the real GNP
could be carried further by making comprehensive estimates of real national product by industry of origin. The precise
industry detail in which the estimates
should be prepared cannot be determined
without further statistical experimentation.
A reasonable goal, subject to modification
in the light of the data situation, would be
to make estimates for all industry divisions
with some additional detail for manufacturing.
industry sales and purchases of intermediate goods cancel out, leaving total industry sales to final users plus inventory
change—i. e., real GNP by type of product
in its presently published form.
The OBE measure of gross product originating in farming (see tables VI1-9 and
VI I-10, as well as Figure 31) represents
pioneering work along these lines. More
recently the Bureau of Labor Statistics has
developed measures of a similar type for
manufacturing. But the definition of
66
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL
INCOME MEASURES
"gross" adopted by BLS is not the same
as the one underlying the gross national
product, and the BLS measure also departs from the national income accounts
framework with respect to its weighting
system and in some other ways.
As part of the proposed measurement of
real output, the methodology used for
farming should be extended to other industries. Preliminary study indicates, how-
suits that are tolerable approximations of
the theoretical ideal.
Extant conventional-type measures of
industry output will need adjustment to
the definitional framework of the national
accounts with respect to industry classification, weighting, etc., as far as possible.
For a number of industries output measures do not exist and would have to be
constructed. These are generally lines in
Fig. 31
Gross Farm Product
Has increased less than total farm output . . .
Billion 1957 Dollars
40
TOTAL FARM OUTPUT
^-iil
30
;
20
INTERMEDIATE
PRODUCTS CONSUMED*
10
0
because of the rising use of purchased materials
Percent
60
RATIO OF INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS
CONSUMED TO FARM OUTPUT
will be conditioned by the supply of primary data. While we believe that a useful
measure of constant-dollar GNP by industry of origin can be constructed even with
the present data, it is obvious that the accuracy of the results as well as the industry
detail and time-breakdown in which they
can be prepared will depend on the quantity and quality of the basic data.
To improve the conventional measure
of total industry output and to calculate
similar measures for industries not now
covered, better value- and volume-data
are needed on industry sales and production. These require a further extension and
strengthening of the Census Bureau program of industrial census enumerations
and sample surveys. Progress in the measurement of output as properly defined in
the GNP framework—industry sales plus
inventory change, or production, less industry purchases of intermediate goods—
requires that improved information be
compiled on the latter item as well. Finally,
better price information specifically applicable to industry sales is needed for the
shortcut approach, and for the full-fledged
procedure comparable data relating to
industry purchases are required in addition.
Some of these data needs are touched
on in Chapter 8, with reference to the
measurement of final product. In connection with the present project, the requirements are more extensive, embracing data
for the estimation of intermediate product
flows (and the prices applicable to them).
40
GOVERNMENT
20
ACCOUNTS
Annual Average for the Period
* Includes feed, fertilizer, fuel, etc.
ever, that it will not be possible to universalize the approach in the foreseeable
future. There are many industries for
which data on sales, purchases, and prices
are too deficient to permit the application
of the full-fledged double-deflation approach.
Conventional Measures
For industries to which the doubledeflation approach cannot be applied, we
can resort to conventional-type measures
which reflect total industry output without
deduction of the intermediate goods consumed. There is a great deal of evidence
that this statistical shortcut will yield re
which conceptual problems of output
measurement are particularly intractable
(e. g., trade and the services) and in which
the value and price or volume data necessary to make the calculations are sparse.
A genuine contribution could be made in
this area by a thorough sorting out of the
conceptual problems and by an intensive
utilization of the data sources at hand. Our
present measures of constant-dollar GNP
by type of product would probably be
benefited as an incidental result of this
work.
Data Needs
As in the case of other branches of national income work, the degree of success
With public receipts and expenditures
assuming such an important role in the
network of income and product flows, a
great deal of interest focuses on the government accounts. A considerable amount
of new information bearing on government
operations has been introduced into the
present volume. But much work remains
to be done.
The functional breakdown of governmental expenditures shown in the Statistical Section represents a major step forward. As we have already pointed out,
however, in this exceedingly difficult field
further research is needed even at the conceptual level.
Object-class details of expenditure,
which are needed in tracing the industrial
impact of changes in the rate and pattern
of government outlays, are better represented in the new set of tables than in the
old set. It is clear, however, that the
amount of concrete detail of this sort which
is provided still falls far short of that required for systematic analysis. Improvement waits on the availability of better
DIRECTIONS OF FUTURE RESEARCH
primary data. To be most useful, the new
materials should be so classified as to facilitate their use in conjunction with statistics for other purchaser groups and for
sales by producers.
Another important project in economic
accounting for government is an analysis
of the changes in financial assets and liabilities associated with the surplus or deficit. This undertaking is closely related
to the saving-investment program outlined
above. Besides the financial data, the latter will also bring together certain information on inventories, public construction
and realty holdings, and public purchases
and stocks of durable equipment.
Our summary account for government
is in a sense a consolidation of the accounting records of many different governmental
entities. As such, it can be made more
meaningful by distinguishing the different
contributions which the various types of
public bodies make to the aggregates.
Separation of State from local government
transactions, for instance, would illuminate
not only the differences in fiscal position
which are characteristic of the two levels,
but also certain associated fiscal relationships between them which have become
very important in recent years.
Again, the special characteristics and
significance of public enterprises justify
more explicit accounting for these than
is now provided in the national income
and product framework.
Even within the broad categories of general government—Federal, State, or local—there are differences along institutional or organizational lines which call for
separate treatment, in the interests both
of economic and administrative analyses.
It is clear that for their own purposes each
such group of governmental institutions
will require accounts elaborated in a different direction. However, as their accounting systems have developed in recent
years—characteristically, toward greater
utility for managerial and policy purposes
as well as in their original function of enforcing fund accountability—certain common features have tended to emerge.
Some of these have likewise been found to
be appropriate from the standpoint of national economic accounting; and categories developed for the latter, in turn,
have proved helpful for designing forms
suitable for use by the public bodies themselves.1
In view of this evidence of a kinship of
objectives, we see a fruitful field of work
in the integration of the national income
accounts for government with those kept
by the governmental entities, and we hope
to contribute to this work.
1. See United Nations, Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, A Manual for Economic and
Functional Classification of Government Transactions (New York, 1958).
REGIONAL INCOME
WORK
The measurement of regional income
should be extended on a limited basis to
encompass areas of smaller size than the
States, particularly metropolitan areas. The
latter account for three-fifths of the Nation's tctal population and the establishment of income records for the larger, if
not all, of them would constitute a valuable tool for market research.
It may be noted that two of the most
troublesome features of local-area income
estimation generally are bypassed or minimized in the case of metropolitan areas.
First, farm income, which is extremely difficult to measure on a local-area basis, is
either absent or of very small magnitude in
metropolitan areas. Secondly, the "commuter problem" tends to be relatively less
important. Certain income components
(wages and salaries, in particular) are
measured at the point of disbursement
(place of work), while others (property income, for example) are estimated on a
residence basis. This situation raises especially knotty problems in small-area income estimation, for where workers reside
in one area and work in another the basic
income data for such areas are partly on a
"where-received" basis and partly on a
"where-earned" basis. Adequate data to
convert personal income wholly to either
of the two definitions are lacking. However,
the use of metropolitan areas as the geographic unit of estimation reduces the
problem since commuting across boundary
lines is generally not very great in the case
of these areas.
County income estimation is conducted
largely by State government departments
and university bureaus of business research, which are in a good position to assemble data for their States, to explore
local sources of information, and to carry
out the very detailed analytical work required. The method generally followed is
to secure total income as the sum of separately estimated components derived
through allocation of OBE State-wide
totals on the basis of the most relevant
available data.
Serving as a guide for such work by those
interested in particular geographical areas
is a "pilot" study recently completed by
OBE. This study was part of an economic
base survey of the Delaware River Service
Area we made for the U. S. Army Corps of
Engineers. Covering selected years of the
period since 1929, it provided estimates of
total income by type and industry as well as
per capita income. These were prepared
not only for the service area as a whole,
but separately for eight subdivisions. The
figures for the subdivisions, in turn, were
67
built up, for the most part, from detailed
information assembled for the area's 49
counties.
The Office of Business Economics does
not plan to engage in county-income measurement on a comprehensive or continuing
basis. To compile income series for the
more than 3,000 counties in the Nation
would require a very large increase in personnel. Moreover, it would be costly to
provide for and assemble here in Washington the basic data that would be needed
in such a project.
INCOME SIZE
DISTRIBUTION
The main objective of OBE in this field is
to improve the annual distributions of consumer units by size of family personal income. Aside from limitations of a purely
statistical character, the main shortcoming
of these distributions is their lumping together of all nonfarm families into a single
large and heterogeneous group. The most
important step that could be taken to make
the income-size materials more useful
would be the construction of separate distributions for families headed by entrepreneurs, by wage earners, and by others.
These three types of families differ widely
from one another in their economic status
and behavior and it would obviously be
desirable to have separate data for each.
Another type of information which
would be useful, especially for purposes of
interpreting the causal factors behind
changes in the size distribution, would be a
breakdown showing the principal sources
of income for the respective types of families at each income level. Illustrative estimates for all nonfarm families combined
are shown in Figure 32.
The basic data needed to extend our
estimates in these two directions are of
essentially the same character as those required to improve the reliability of the
present distributions. The suggested increase in the amount of detail provided by
family type, and that on income sources,
would of course call for statistically stronger
basic data than do the summary estimates
now published.
These summary figures are derived by integrating data from Federal individual income-tax return tabulations with statistics
from Census and other sample field surveys
of family income, and adjusting the results
to control totals based on the OBE measures of the various types of personal income. Use of the tax return data requires
so-called "matching studies," which relate
the incomes of sample consumer units to
the tax returns they file and thus provide a
68
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL
INCOME MEASURES
means for converting distributions of tax
return incomes to a family income basis.
Also required are IRS audit studies yielding up-to-date information on underreporting of income to the tax authorities. The
sample survey information requires improvement with respect to the handling of
families at the lower end of the income scale
and on farms. In addition, it should show
in greater detail how the principal types
of income distinguished in our control
totals are distributed by family income
level.
which may be expected from recent technical progress in the making of such surveys,
experience indicates that the results as
tabulated will diverge from the independently derived totals for the Nation. It
would seem appropriate for the National
Income Division to reconcile and integrate the survey-based distributions with
these totals, as we now do annually with
the basic survey and tax return data on
the distribution of income.
As to causes, the family income distribution may be viewed as reflecting three
Fig. 32
Major Sources of Family Income
By Income Groups in 1955
Percent of type of income
Families
•
with
100
income of—
$10,000
and
over
matching study called for above would
cast light on how individual recipients are
combined into consumer units. Key primary data on the size distributions of the
various types of income should be obtained
from tax returns and the decennial census
schedules—mainly improved detail of each
kind of income distributed by its own size
and, for the tax returns, crossbreaks of
employees' as well as proprietors' earnings
by broad occupational groups.
Reference above to family personal income as the basis of our distributions
should not be taken to imply final acceptance of this concept as the only one for
all purposes. To the contrary, we should
like to experiment with a number of variant bases—distinguished, e. g., by the inclusion of capital gains or by the exclusion of imputed items—which may prove
superior in one connection or another.
More broadly, business practices in accounting for income naturally change over
time, in response to tax legislation and
other institutional shifts; and these changes
affect our distributions. While it is not in
general possible to make adjustments
which will eliminate such effects, continued
study of them is important for a proper interpretation of our statistics.
60
$6,000
to
$9,999
$4,000
to
$5,999
under
INDUSTRY SALES AND
PURCHASES
M
•I
$4,000
20
WM
1 II
Dividends &
Nonfarm
Wages &
Transfer
Income From
Business &
Salaries
Payments
Estates &
Professional
Trusts
Income
Note.-Distribution is for nonfarm mu/f/person families by size of personal income before tax.
Primary data and resources permitting, factors, each of which in turn is determined
it would be desirable to provide additional by different basic economic forces and
tools for relating our income distributions therefore deserves separate study. One is
to the economic variables which are in- the distribution of individuals' receipts of
fluenced by them, on the one hand, and to specific types of income, classified directly
the causes that underlie them, on the other. by the size of such receipts. The second is
The most important project under the the relative importance of the various types
first of these headings would be one of income in the total. The third is the patyielding estimates of taxes, consumption, tern in which individual recipients of the
and saving for the families in each income various kinds of income are combined into
group. To carry out such a project ade- family units.
quately would require comprehensive new
Information and techniques should be
field surveys of the type which have been developed by which these factors could be
conducted, e. g., by the Bureau of Labor isolated and their specific effects on the
Statistics among the urban families in its final family distribution traced and evaluSurvey of Consumer Expenditures in 1950. ated. About the first and last of them, in
Despite the improvements in reliability particular, not enough is known. The
The central objective of national income
statistics is to depict the economic process
in terms of interrelated income and product flows. The project to be discussed, like
the preceding ones, would make a significant contribution to this goal. It differs
from them, however, in that the resources
required for its successful inplementation
are on a quite different scale from those
which would be sufficient to make substantial progress in the other directions that
have been outlined.
Utilizing the accounts in their present
form, we can study income as originating
in production in the various industries,
trace the way this income accrues to the
major economic groups—businesses, consumers, and government—and see how
this basic flow is modified by taxes and
transfers. It is also possible to observe the
spending of incomes, so modified, for current purposes (broadly defined to include
personal consumption as well as government purchases of goods and services).
The channeling of the remainder of income—i. e., saving—into investment demand is not now shown in our tables. The
study of saving and investment outlined
earlier is intended to account clearly for
this stage in the economic circulation, thus
DIRECTIONS OF FUTURE RESEARCH
rounding out the statistical picture of how
income is transformed into final demand.
To complete the depiction of the circular process, it is necessary to show the
manner in which this demand in turn
generates incomes in the various industries
of the economy. The study of industry sales
and purchases is intended to provide this
link, by showing how final demand is translated into demand for the products—including intermediate goods—of the various
industries.
The provision of this information within
the framework of the national accounts
would enhance their usefulness in the
analysis of general business conditions.
Also important, it would strengthen them
in their capacity to throw light upon the
effect of changes in total demand or its
composition upon particular industrial
markets. The analysis of changes in industrial supply and cost conditions would be
facilitated as well.
To see more completely the essence of
the new statistical information and its relation to the information we now provide,
it is best to envisage it in terms of an operating account for each industry group
selected for analysis.
The credit side of this account would
show production as the sum of sales and
inventory change, with sales subdivided
into (a) intermediate products going to
each of the other industries and (b) final
products disposed of in each major market
now distinguished in the regular GNP
tables—consumer, fixed investment, government, and export. The debit side of the
account would show purchases of intermediate goods from each supplying industry and from abroad, income originating
(wages, profits, etc.), indirect business
taxes, and depreciation and kindred capital
consumption allowances. The sum of the
last three groups of items, it may be noted,
measures gross product originating in each
industry.
Industry income and gross product, on
the one hand, and direct industry sales in
final markets, on the other, would thus be
shown in their interrelation with the network of other industry sales and purchases.
We would then have a basic framework for
analyzing repercussions of changes in final
demands not only on incomes generated
in the industries directly affected but, also,
through changes in the current-account
purchases of these industries, on the income flows from other industries which
contribute to the production of the final
output.
The accounting relationships of the new
statistical information to that we now pub-
lish emerge most clearly in terms of the
consolidation of the industry accounts. Industry sales and purchases of intermediate
goods would cancel, and (with imports
netted against exports) the credit side of
the consolidated account would show gross
national product in its conventional form
as the sum of sales to final markets and
inventory change; the debit side would exhibit the same magnitude measured in
terms of national income, business taxes,
and capital consumption allowances.
The foregoing very general sketch may
serve to bring out the essence of the new
information and show how it fits into the
present framework of the national accounts. Several more specific points should
also be noted.
1. In the development of the new information, it would be simpler from a
statistical standpoint to confine the crossbreak by purchaser and seller to intermediate goods, showing the flow of capital
goods by seller industry only, i. e., without
providing a cross-classification by purchaser industry. The cross-classification by
purchaser would be of great interest, however, and every effort should be made to
obtain it.
2. Decisions have to be made as to the
industry detail that is to be provided. For
the purposes of the type of economic analysis to which national income statistics
are best adapted, a reasonable goal would
be a fairly aggregative type of presentation distinguishing major industry divisions
and two-digit groups within manufacturing. It would be desirable, of course, to
set the project up in such a manner that
the totals shown would be capable of
further disaggregation for uses in which
this is necessary.
3. Benchmark calculations should be
made for years covered by basic census enumerations, but the series should be maintained on an annual basis, although in a
more condensed form if this is indicated
by the limitations of the primary data.
4. The working out of a detailed scheme
for handling transactions among industries
poses several difficult issues. For instance,
for many purposes it is desirable to depart
from the depiction of the actual passage
of commodities from producers to distributive industries and from the latter
to final users. It may be more advantageous
to show these users as purchasing directly
from producers and as making separate
payments to the distributive industries
(equal to the gross margins these industries
add to the cost of goods purchased).
Similarly, for some purposes it is desirable to show the amounts of raw materials
69
consumed during the accounting period,
rather than the amounts purchased, by
the various industries. (As can be seen, this
modification would involve opposite adjustments in the industry measurement of
inventory change.) Similar departures
from the actual flow of goods and services
are indicated for some uses of the statistics
in the case of secondary products and imports. These and other procedures should
be carefully reviewed in the light of the
major analytical uses to which the figures
are to be put and of the primary data available to make the estimates.
Data Gaps
It should be stressed that a large body of
additional facts is needed to produce reliable estimates of the type outlined. Many
of these facts represent further, detailed
elaboration of basic information which
has not so far been produced in a satisfactory fashion even in the summary form
in which it is needed for the present
national product estimates.
The latter needs have been indicated
in Chapter 8 in the discussion of our consumption and capital formation measures.
The requirements of a cross-classification
of purchases and sales among industries
are the most exacting, because this involves
the most comprehensive and articulated
presentation of product flows.
No attempt will be made here to outline
in any detail the data necessary to carry out
the project. The most important data
sources are the Census of Manufactures
and the Annual Survey of Manufactures,
and this reporting system should also be
used to provide much of the additional information that is required. Broadly speaking, we need information on manufacturers' sales by type of purchaser, improved
information on materials consumed and on
investment by industry, and improved data
on the product detail of shipments. Similar
information will be required for nonmanufacturing industries; it should be obtained
mainly through regularization, integration,
and expansion of the Census program.
Moreover, the problems met in deriving a
consistent industry classification of national
income on an establishment basis (see
Chapter 8) also arise in the present project. In terms of the new industry accounts
that have been sketched, what is involved
is a measurement of income originating
that is consistent both internally and with
the surrounding sales and purchases
estimates.
DATA SOURCES A N D PROCEDURES
7. Summary Evaluation of the
Postwar Estimates
The two chapters in this part of the volume deal with the statistical foundations of
the national income and product estimates.
Following a general discussion of the
scope and results of the statistical revisions
that have been introduced, an account is
provided of the data and procedures used
in preparing the new postwar estimates.
This covers each of the principal income
and product components, both annual and
quarterly. At the end of Chapter 8 we list
the major deficiencies in the basic data
sources available for national income work,
and give recommendations as to how these
sources could be strengthened.
This focus on methodology and revisions is desirable because a knowledge of
them is necessary for an assessment of the
reliability of the national income and product estimates. It is obvious that such an
assessment is of first-order importance, both
from the standpoint of facilitating informed uses of the figures and of promoting
further improvements in them. However,
the fact that it must derive primarily from
a knowledge of the statistical basis of the
estimates perhaps requires elaboration.
This can be set forth briefly through a series
of generalizations drawn from fuller discussions of this general subject which have
been included in our previous national income bulletins.
ASSESSMENT OF
RELIABILITY
Statistical data on the United States
economy are not collected in the framework of a coordinated program designed
for income and product measurement. Our
estimates must be constructed from an extensive array of diverse information which
for the most part is not directly or wholly
suitable for this purpose, and which must
be processed to adjust for differences in
definition and to fill gaps in coverage. Although basic information is drawn from
numerous private sources, the mainstay of
the national income and product estimates
is government-produced statistics; these
70
include not only censuses and other general-purpose economic information, but
also many types of data that become available from government agencies as a byproduct of their administrative functions.
The essence of OBE's task in the national
income field is to assemble these relevant
diverse data and to adjust them, through
estimation, in a step-by-step buildup of the
income and output measures. Such a detailed statistical approach is followed
chiefly for the purpose of maximizing reliability.
The reliability of the national income
and product estimates cannot be assessed
quantitatively. These estimates incorporate a great deal of basic data which may
be presumed from their general characteristics to be "reliable," but for which the
extent of accuracy cannot be specified in
exact terms. Beyond such data, the area of
uncertainty widens. For they are buttressed
by countless other data of differing quality,
scope, and relevance; and resort must also
be had to indirect procedures in the attempt to overcome the gaps or deficiencies
in the statistical source materials available
for national income estimation.
It is to be stressed, too, that to know the
degree of probable error in individual figures would not be sufficient. More often
than not, the concern would be with the
error in relationships among the figures,
particularly over time. Throughout the
period since 1929, the amount and quality
of basic data have varied widely among the
various income and product components.
Since, then, the degree of error in the
national income and product estimates is
not subject to quantitative determination,
the assessment of reliability must be based
in large degree on an analytical appraisal
of the data and procedures underlying the
estimates and of the record of revisions. The
primary aim of the methodological descriptions contained in the present volume, as
well as in the preceding income supplements, is to provide the basis for such appraisals. The endeavor is to portray the
essential character of the estimates—focusing on those aspects which bear most directly on accuracy—and to provide our
frank judgments concerning the adequacy
of the various series.
To round out the points which have been
sketched above, some further observations
should be made:
No other approach to national income
work would make feasible the assessment
of error mathematically. Suppose, for instance, that—in sharp contrast to present
procedure—the national income and product measures were derived wholly from
samples. Quantitative expression of "probable error" would then be possible. In itself,
however, this would involve an estimate,
and hence measure of uncertainty, because
of a lack of knowledge of the true universe
and its composition; and, more important,
it would not cover errors due to faulty reporting of information by respondents, negligence on the part of enumerators, etc.
The errors stemming from such sources may
in practice be larger than those which are
attributed to sampling itself. Moreover,
they are most difficult to determine and
hardly ever can be quantified.
Inability to measure error is not, of
course, confined to the field of national income but encompasses the entire range of
economic statistics. It is also relevant to
note that work in national income—in fact,
in the social sciences generally—seldom requires a rigorous specification of probable
error. Further, studies in these fields do not
depend for their validity and usefulness on
statistics having a high degree of exactitude. The national income and product
figures are of generally good quality and,
despite the inevitable margin of error in
them, are found widely useful in economic
analysis.
Of final note, analysis of reliability on
any detailed and comprehensive scale is
seldom, if ever, called for. With respect
to most specific applications of the national income and product estimates, reasonably careful study of the relevant descriptions of methodology and concept will
give a clear indication as to whether the
estimates are suitable for the intended
use.
Such a study will usually prove rewarding. It will lead to more effective utiliza-
SUMMARY EVALUATION OF THE POSTWAR ESTIMATES
tion of the data by channeling them into components which tied in with both these
uses warranted by their nature and degree benchmarks and the previous ones for 1947.
of accuracy. It will also forestall many mis- Therefore, the opportunity was taken to
applications of the data as, for example, revise our estimates on a broad scale—to
when the informed user becomes wary of incorporate also noncensus data which had
drawing seemingly significant conclusions become available since the last major refrom small changes in a series which are vision four years ago, and to carry through
obviously well within the margin of error. desired improvements in estimating techWe turn now to a discussion of the sta- niques.
tistical revisions which have been incorpoThe series on corporate profits and busirated into the present volume.
ness and professional proprietors' income
were significantly affected by this extension
of the scope of the revisions; the estimates
STATISTICAL
of wages and salaries were strengthened
for several of the industry groups and reREVISIONS
fined in still other respects; special revisions
of farm income, embodying Census of
Recent-year estimates of national in- Agriculture data, were prepared by the
come and product are based on incom- Department of Agriculture; the revisions
plete data and are revised as additional of residential construction which were
information becomes available. For most issued last year by the compilers of the
components there is a significant basis for data were incorporated into the GNP; and
revising the initial figures. An important other improvements were effected as all
example is furnished by those components, of the many income and product composuch as business earnings and inventories, nents came under careful statistical review
which are affected by the lag in the avail- and appraisal and were altered wherever
ability of tabulations from Federal income there was felt to be an appreciable need.
tax returns.
In addition to this more basic revision
Periodically, statistical revisions must ex- of a periodic nature, the previously pubtend further back to incorporate census in- lished national income and product figures
formation obtained at intervals which can were subjected to the same kind of current
range up to 10 years. Such benchmark in- review and alteration as are regularly asformation finds widespread use in our sociated with the July National Income
work, especially in building up the product Number of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSIside of the accounts. Finally, in certain in- NESS. In this, revisions of recent-period
stances improved sources and/or methods estimates—usually covering 3 years—are
may become available which call for revi- incorporated on the basis of statistical insions over an even longer period of years. formation becoming available during the
past year.
The statistical changes which are preScope of Current Revisions
sented in this report extend from 1946. We
went back that far in order to take account
In this report, our estimates have un- of revisions in the residential construction
dergone a major review occasioned prin- and farm income series. A few other comcipally by the availability of tabulations ponents have been modified for 1946 and
from the 1954 Census of Manufactures and
1947, but for most the changes begin
Census of Business. These sources have with 1948.
been utilized to prepare new benchmarks
A reworking of the figures before 1946
for consumer commodities and producers' was not undertaken because the case for
durable equipment, according to the doing so was not compelling. We revised
"commodity flow" procedure. T h e y back to 1929 in the 1954 National Income
yielded requisite benchmark data also for supplement, and any further changes at
numerous individual series of consumer this time would have fallen generally in
expenditures for services. While the 1954 the category of minor refinements, since
censuses thus afforded a comprehensive the basic data available for the earlier
basis for making necessary revisions of the period already have been mined rather
gross national product, they had limited thoroughly. Also, we were mindful of the
effect on the national income. The latter
inconvenience which revisions, whatever
is dependent on industrial census data only
in minor degree; in the main, it rests on their merit, cause the users of the statistics.
All in all, we have attempted to put the
statistics collected under the administration
of the social security and Federal income- national income and product estimates for
the entire postwar period on as solid a
tax systems.
statistical footing as is possible at the presThe preparation of new benchmarks for ent time. This generalization applies not
important components of the gross national only to the annual figures, but also to the
product for 1954 meant that our tables quarterly series, which likewise were rehad to be "opened up" for a back period viewed comprehensively and in a number
of years, so as to provide—by means of of significant instances basically recast as
"interpolation"—annual series for those to statistical methodology.
71
As a result of this work, the statistical
basis for estimating the GNP was put substantantially on a final basis through 1954.
The component estimates through that
year now incorporate a very large bulk of
the basic data that may be expected from
present statistical sources. The principal
exception relates to consumer expenditures
for services, for which one-third or more
of the total awaits another decennial
benchmark from the 1960 Census of Population and Housing. Also to be noted is
that data collected in the Census Bureau's
1956 National Housing Inventory called
into question the post-1950 estimates of
residential construction, and that the
issue—as discussed later—has not reached
definitive solution pending a necessary
special survey.
For the year 1955, the status of the GNP
figures is about the same as that described
for 1954 except that the estimates for consumer commodities, and probably producers' durable equipment, will be affected
somewhat by the future incorporation of
results from the 1958 manufacturing and
business censuses. The estimates of gross
national product for 1956 and 1957,
especially the latter, are decidedly more
preliminary.
The basis for revision of the national
income is likewise rather complete through
1954 and 1955, with subsequent-year
figures more tentative. The farm income
series, however, may be revised further in
the light of studies now in progress; and
there is always the possibility that for some
other components new data may become
available to suggest a modification of the
past record. This latter generalization, of
course, applies to the entire range of statistical series covered by the field of national
income and product.
Overall Results
It is time now to ask what this substantial volume of revision work has contributed to knowledge about the reliability
of the national income and product
figures. What has been learned about the
statistical basis of the estimates r
this
most recent effort to improve the r i ' We
shall pursue this question along general
lines, and against the background of our
previous experience; the provision of specific information about statistical problems
and methodology, and about the extent to
which the component series have been
altered, is reserved for the next chapter.
In the 1954 National Income supplement, after having completed a similar
statistical review, we reported that the revisions which had been made in the initial
estimates of national income and gross
national product were very moderate—
generally less than 1 percent. The results
this time are similar.
72
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
For the years 1946-54, the differences
between the new income and product
aggregates and the figures they superseded
are quite small. For the subsequent period,
the revisions are somewhat larger, though
still moderate—as exemplified by the GNP
for 1957, which at $440 billion on the new
basis exceeds the previous figure by $6 billion, or somewhat more than 1 percent.
This increase in level dates largely from
1955, with the revised estimates serving to
accentuate the picture of strong recovery
already shown for that year. The 1955-57
expansion in GNP, as well as in the income
flow, recorded by the revised figures is
closely similar to that previously measured.
In the new estimates of gross national
product, the incorporation of 1954 census
data and of other information resulted in a
replacement of components forming about
two-fifths of the total. The smallness of
the percentage revisions in aggregate GNP
thus constitutes favorable evidence regarding the quality of the extrapolating
procedures that are used pending the
availability of census information.
We would first point out that an outcome of this general type had been expected. This was because the national income, which is a reliable measure dependent on census data only in minor degree,
had confirmed the gross national product
estimates in the interim period—through
the moderate size of the statistical discrepancy. The advantages of estimating
income and product flows in an interrelated accounting framework are clearly
apparent in this connection.
But this favorable outcome, although
anticipated, must be qualified. First, while
the revisions of total GNP were moderate,
the underlying statistical situation is not so
adequate as might be implied. As the next
chapter explains, we encountered certain
difficulties in the estimation of consumer
expenditures and producers' durable equipment, and found it necessary to make reductions totaling $4*/2 billion—or a little
over 1 percent of GNP—in the initial calculations of these series for 1954 when
collateral information indicated they had
turned out too high. While we are reasonably sure that the decisions made in this
connection were in the nature of improvements, the implications for reliability of
the GNP are not the same as if the total
had been added up directly from benchmark information not subject to significant
limitations.
A second qualification stems from the
fact that extrapolating errors were generally larger in components than in the
total GNP. In itself, this fact conforms
with a well-known tendency in national income and other fields of estimation, and
hence is not surprising. In the work just
concluded, however, the revisions in numerous component series were quite sizable,
and the results on this score were less satisfactory than in 1954.
A third qualification regarding the moderateness of revisions in the GNP total
relates to a point already noted—that not
all of the basic data that are relevant to its
calculation have yet become available.
However, setting aside the estimates for the
most recent year or two, consumer expenditures for services are probably the most
"preliminary" major component; on the
basis of past experience, subsequent revisions in this series are unlikely to have
substantial effect on the gross national
product total.
Implications for Reliability
The results of the revision work noted
above may thus be said to have a twofold
implication for reliability of the estimates.
First, they confirm our belief, expressed
on page 64 of the 1954 Supplement, that
"the estimated annual totals of gross national product, national income, and personal income are subject to only a small
percentage of error." In this connection,
it is well to remind that an error of $4
billion, while large in an absolute sense, is
still only 1 percent of our greatly expanded
GNP.
At the same time—and this is the second
point—the state of the basic data for estimating some components of gross national
product is a source of definite concern. The
statistical review of the postwar figures
pointed up an impreciseness in the overall
totals of consumer commodity expenditures
and producers' durable equipment; and,
beyond this, the revisions in numerous parts
of these important GNP components were
sizable. The next chapter includes a discussion of the difficulties encountered in
these phases of the work, and of the steps
that have been taken to help remedy the
deficiencies and to minimize errors. The
success achieved in this direction could
only be partial, and there remains a clear
need for better statistical data on certain
of the product flows.
Other lessons derived from this comprehensive statistical effort may be commented
upon briefly. One such lesson serves simply
to affirm the advisability of the step taken
4 years ago in reducing the amount of detail shown for personal consumption expenditures, net income of unincorporated
businesses, and several other series. A primary reason for this move was the fact that
the basic data situation had not improved
in line with our expectations in 1947 at the
time the original system of tables was established.
How much detail to publish or release is,
of course, a problem of long standing. We
have reexamined this problem in connection with the expansion of statistical tables
for this report, and have attempted to
strike a balance between the needs of analy
sis, on the one hand, and the undesirabil
ity of issuing weak estimates, on the other
The material which has been added is believed to be sufficiently reliable when usec
appropriately. Provision of any significant
amount of additional detail must await further development and improvement in the
basic data.
In actual fact, the national income and
product series are published—and have
been in the past—in somewhat greater detail than is warranted by the statistical reliability of some of the ultimate components. While it would be hazardous to
attach precise significance to the level and
movement of these components, offsetting
errors make it feasible to recombine them
into reliable subtotals differing from the
published ones and better adapted to serve
specific types of economic analysis. It is in
order to facilitate such judicious recombinations that some of the estimates (in particular, recent-year detail on the industrial
origin of some of the income shares and on
the product breakdown of some of the con
sumer commodity and service flows) art
published, and one should be aware that
the use that can be made of these series in
isolation is limited.
There is one more observation to be
made regarding the further experience
gained in this latest work—namely, that it
has underlined the fact that the measurement of income and product on a lessthan-annual basis encounters a number of
difficulties that are particular to shortterm estimation. To use the quarterly and
monthly measures effectively, one should
be aware of their characteristics. The description of these measures which is provided in the next chapter is intended to be
of some help in this regard.
Conclusion About Revisions
In conclusion, the preparation of this
volume has served to reaffirm our belief in
the manifold usefulness of the national income statistics. Inadequacies in these statistics have seldom proved of material consequence from the standpoint of general
economic analysis. The estimates of national income and product have given a
comprehensive view of the performance of
the economy which in no major sense has
been altered by statistical revisions.
Nevertheless, the work on this volume
has pointed up a number of areas in wliich
the figures require strengthening in order
to improve their usefulness for more particular purposes. This strengthening is especially desirable in view of the increasing
demands which are being placed upon the
income and product estimates. It can come
about only through the provision of better
basic data—the raw materials from which
the estimates are constructed—and this, in
turn, would appear to be quite feasible.
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
8. How the Estimates
Were Made
The broad purpose of this chapter is to
advance knowledge about the reliability of
the GNP and national income measures
through a discussion of the sources and
methods used in deriving their components. We shall report on the statistical
problems which were encountered in making the postwar estimates embodied in this
volume, and how these problems were
handled.
The 1954 National Income supplement*
contains a full account of the methodology
employed in estimating the various income
and product components. Given this background, our present purpose will be served
best by bringing the 1954 description up to
date on a summary basis—amending it or
revising it wherever necessary, and pointing
up those aspects of the postwar methodology which bear particularly on the quality
of the estimates.
Scope of chapter
We shall take up first the annual gross
national product estimates; then, the various components on the income side of the
accounts. The third section covers the
quarterly and monthly series, and contains
information on methodology not previously recorded in any of our bulletins.
The chapter concludes with a listing of
major data gaps brought out in this review
of the postwar income and product series,
together with recommendations for the
elimination of these deficiencies.
The ensuing account of methodology
does not deal with either the State income
or size distribution series. The statistical
basis of the former is covered fully in our
recent volume on Personal Income by
States Since 1929. In that volume, a summary discussion of the derivation and reliability of the State series is provided as
part of the chapter titled, "A General View
of the Estimates"; and this is followed by
a detailed explanation of sources and meth-
ods which serves to document the earlier
overall appraisal. A careful description of
the basic methodology used in the size distribution estimates may be found in the
special supplement, Income Distribution in
the United States, and this was up-dated
in the April 1958 SURVEY OF CURRENT
BUSINESS.
New IRS report
On the whole, data sources for estimating the national income and product have
remained much the same in the past few
years. Such specific changes as have oc-
curred are noted below, but one new valuable source of information which was
designed to strengthen several components
of the national income accounts may be
singled out at this time. Reference is had
to Business Indicators, a series of reports
by the Internal Revenue Service which
was initiated in the spring of 1958 for the
purpose of providing an advance release
of key statistical information regularly
published in Statistics of Income.
The Business Indicator reports issued
this year provided data for 1956, classified
by industry groups, on net income, sales,
Fig. 33
Relation of Income and Product Aggregates, 1957
Depredation,
etc. $$9 Bit
Indirect Business
Taxes $3f Bil.
Undistributed
Earnings
$44 BU.
Transfer pQym&t&s?
Notional
Income
•$364 Sit
Distributed
Earnings
Distributed
$320 i i l
$320 Bil,
Gross
National Product
$440 Billion
National
Income
$364 Billion
Personal
Income
$348 Billion
Earnings
Taxes
$43 B&
Personal
Income
Alter Taxes
$305 Sit
Disposable
Personal Income
$305 Billion
* Including $6 billion of net interest paid by Government
1. National Income—1954 Edition, U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington, 1954, $1.50.
73
74
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
taxes, inventories, and other items taken
from the Federal tax returns of corporations, sole proprietorships, and partnerships. These tabulations, which were made
available more than a year ahead of the
regular schedule, were derived from samples used to produce Statistics of Income
benchmarks.
The specific industries and items selected for Business Indicators were those
for which "adequate and timely data are
not available from other Government
sources and could be obtained at a minimum cost from returns filed with the Internal Revenue Service." On the basis of
these criteria, agriculture, forestry, and
fishery were excluded from unincorporated
businesses, and manufacturing from corpo-
rations. The main points of note here are
that the Department of Agriculture is the
regular source of the necessary estimates
for farming, and that the Securities and
Exchange and Federal Trade Commissions, through their Quarterly Financial
Survey, furnish current sample-based data
for manufacturing similar to the special
tabulations for nonmanufacturing corporations derived by Business Indicators.
The precise degree of reliability of these
new data will not be established until a
comparison between them and the final
tabulations from tax returns is available
for a number of years. But there can be
little doubt that they represent a substantial improvement over the type of interim
information that had to be utilized until
now.
be exaggerated, many such series—particu
larly in the area of the services—were im
proved through the incorporation of dat;
which had become available since the las
major revision 4 years ago. A significan
example is afforded by the professiona
services category, where Internal Revenue
Service tabulations of the sales of proprietorships and partnerships were utilized tc
indicate the movement of consumer expenditures. And a particularly noteworthy
improvement centers in the development of
new figures on the automobile "allocation"—the proportions by which total (private) sales of passenger cars, gasoline and
oil, automobile repairs, and certain other
items are subdivided between consumers
and business.
Adjustment of the Total
Strengthening the
Gross National Product Measure
The statistical review of the gross national product, as already indicated, centered mainly in personal consumption
expenditures and producers' durable equipment. Following a description of this
larger task, we take up the changes found
necessary in the other components.
For residential construction, the revisions embodied in the new data issued last
year, and now incorporated into the GNP,
were sizable. For business inventories, foreign transactions, and government purchases, however, the statistical modifications were, on the whole, relatively minor.
CONSUMER
EXPENDITURES
The 1954 Census of Manufactures and
Census of Business provided an extensive
basis for the preparation of new benchmark figures on personal consumption expenditures. The revision work on consumer
expenditures for 1954 may be viewed as
consisting of three phases:
1. The "commodity flow" method was
used to derive estimates for individual commodity groups which together formed over
four-fifths of total consumer commodity expenditures. This method earlier had been
applied biennially for odd-numbered years
of the 1929-39 period and for 1947—years
for which a Census of Manufactures, the
prime requisite statistical source, had been
taken.
As described in the 1954 National Income supplement, the commodity flow
procedure involves numerous estimating
steps. In broad outline, these entail securing commodity data at producers' prices on
the output of factories, farms, and fisheries; segregating for each commodity the
portion of total output not requiring further processing, and destined for personal
consumption; and then passing from finished output at producers' prices to final
costs to consumers by tracing the commodities through the various stages of the
distributive system. Of necessity, the commodity flow method depends on the periodic industrial censuses—including those
of retail and wholesale trade—to provide
most of the basic information for separating consumer commodities from total output, tracing their flow, and measuring their
costs of distribution.
2. For a large number of individual
items of consumer expenditures on services, benchmark estimates were prepared
for 1954 on the basis of information collected for that year in the Census of Business. Such items make up about one-sixth
of aggregate consumer outlays on services.
3. All component series of consumption
expenditures, both commodities and services, not affected by the availability of 1954
census materials were nonetheless given a
careful statistical review. While the importance of this part of the work should not
In general, then, it may be said that
personal consumption expenditures for
1954 were revised by the usual methods.
The processing of Census of Manufactures
and Census of Business data largely followed established procedure; as compared
with the revision work that was done 4
years ago, the study of automobile allocations was the principal new feature.
Some of the more specific aspects of
methodology underlying the new 1954
estimates of consumer expenditures will be
described presently. We discuss at this time
the broader problems that were encountered in the estimates.
The first difficulty arose when the numerous separately estimated items of consumer expenditures were added up for
1954 and the resulting total appeared too
high. As will be seen, the problem was not
major in terms of the broad aggregates of
personal consumption and gross national
product, particularly since a reasonable
solution of it became evident. Its impact
within the accounts, however, was more
substantial—as, for example, with respect
to its implications for the personal saving
estimates. Our explanation of the handling
of this matter, which involved fairly technical issues, is developed at some length in
the interest of clarity.
APPRAISAL OF THE PROBLEM
After the estimates of consumer expenditures for the individual series had been
totaled for 1954, and then fitted into the
national income accounts, two results were
immediately apparent:
1. The "statistical discrepancy" was a
sizable positive figure, indicating that gross
national product as estimated from the expenditure side of the accounts exceeded
gross national product derived as the sum
of incomes and other charges.
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
2. The difficulty appeared to center in
an imbalance between income and consumption. This was indicated by the fact
that personal saving obtained by subtracting personal consumption expenditures
from disposable personal income was considerably lower than the direct estimate
of personal saving prepared by the Securities and Exchange Commission, whereas
the latter was closely approximated by the
OBE "alternative estimate'5 of personal
saving. With reference to table V-l in the
Statistical Section, this alternative series
is equal to gross investment less government surplus and less gross private saving
other than personal saving. Statistically, it
is obtained most readily by adding the statistical discrepancy to the more conventional (income less consumption) measure
of personal saving.
At this stage, a detailed statistical review
of the entire set of income and product
estimates was undertaken. This, however,
did not appreciably affect the initial results. That is, our reexamination of the
individual income and product series in
the attempt to trace the source of the statistical discrepancy did not uncover substantial instances in which the initial methodology was regarded as faulty.
The problem thus remained, and in approximately the same dimensions. We were
faced with two possible courses—to permit
the estimates to stand, that is, to publish
them with their obvious blemishes; or to
adjust the figures so as to eliminate what
we considered, upon analysis, to be the
source of difficulty even though it could
not be located specifically, or demonstrated
in terms of actual statistical methodology.
The latter course seemed clearly preferable ; and the decision was reached to bring
the national income accounts into better
conformity by reducing the initial estimates of consumer expenditures. We may
spell out to some extent the considerations
that led to this decision.
First, we accepted as being probably correct the above-noted indication that the
statistical discrepancy reflected estimating
errors in the general area of personal income and expenditure. An opposite conclusion would have implied that both the
SEC direct estimate of personal saving and
the OBE "alternative" estimate were
grossly in error, despite their good agreement with each other; and that the statistical trouble spot in the figures was in
the area of gross investment and nonpersonal saving—a situation which seemed less
plausible than that entailed in the assumption that the principal error lay in the
personal saving estimate derived as the
difference between disposable income and
consumption.
The latter estimate, because it is obtained as the residual between much larger
totals, is subject to substantial percentage
466759 0—59
6
error. The OBE "alternative" estimate of
personal saving is also a residual measure.
It is not possible to say which of these two
residuals, in general, is likely to be the
more reliable, although in the present instance of the 1954 estimates we were inclined to favor the "alternative" estimate
upon consideration of the statistical quality
of the income and product estimates involved. With regard to the SEC measure
of personal saving, which is provided
through direct estimates of changes in the
assets and liabilities of persons, data deficiencies make this type of procedure a
hazardous one also.
Although none of the three available
measures of personal saving could be regarded as particularly reliable, we took
into account that they were to a very large
extent statistically independent and thus
could be used to provide useful statistical
checks upon each other. Considerable
weight was therefore attached to the fact
that, in the estimates initially reviewed, the
SEC direct measure and the OBE "alternative" measure were in line with each other,
not only for 1954, but also throughout the
period 1948—53. For each of the 6 years of
that period, as for the benchmark year
1954, the tentative estimates initially
turned in by staff members showed a positive statistical discrepancy and a personal
saving figure—income less consumption—
that appeared too low in relation to both
of the other personal saving series.
What, then, caused this figure to be "too
low"? Did the error center in disposable
income, in consumer expenditures, or in
some combination of the two? To these
questions there can be no sure answers.
Our own judgment, as already indicated,
led to a scaling down of the initial calculation of consumer expenditures. This
amounted to I1/* percent of the 1954 total,
or $35/2 billion. The reduction was allocated proportionately among the individual
commodity and service items since it did
not appear advisable—nor was there any
feasible basis—to attempt to gauge relative
accuracy among them. Adjustment of the
1954 benchmark estimates, together with
the interpolations between 1947 and 1954
which followed, meant that the final estimates for 1948-53 are also lower than they
otherwise would have been—by proportions which roughly represent a straightlining between zero percent for 1947 and
1J/2 percent for 1954.
The decision which we made regarding
the 1954 figures may be said to be twofold:
(1) Rejecting the initial estimate of consumer expenditures derived by the usual
procedure of building up the total from
detailed, separately calculated commodity
and service items; and (2) substituting in
its place the aggregate approximately indicated by subtracting the SEC direct estimate of personal saving from our own
figure on disposable personal income. When
75
viewed in this way, the published 1954 consumer expenditure total is seen to have a
specific basis; and the value of estimating
income, consumption, and saving in an
interrelated framework is once more
brought into clear focus. As a corollary,
however, it will be recognized that the
three measures of personal saving shown in
table V—8 have lost a considerable measure of their statistical independence for the
post-1947 period.
CONSIDERATIONS OF RELIABILITY
This point must be emphasized: The decision that the consumer expenditure figure
was too high—rather than that the personal income calculation was too low—
represented a judgment, although we believe a good one. It was noted in Chapter
7 that quantitative measures of the reliability of the various income and product
series are not available, and cannot be constructed on a meaningful basis. We therefore had to rely on an appraisal that, as
compared with personal consumption expenditures, personal income is a better
estimated series with statistical procedures
more clearly indicated.
In terms of the broad components of
personal income, a very high rating of reliability must be assigned to wages and
salaries, dividends, and transfer payments,
which together account for four-fifths of
the total. Among other components, only
rental income of persons—less than 4 percent of all personal income—can be stated
flatly to be deficient; and personal interest
income and other labor income are rated
as satisfactory.
The estimates of proprietors' income—
both farm and business and professional—
are subject to significant shortcomings. In
the case of the latter (nonfarm) series,
however, one should guard against the easy
generalization that it is patently and substantially too low by reason of the fact that
it is founded principally on tax return information. For it should be noted that the
tabulations of Federal tax returns are quite
comprehensive in scope and have been adjusted for gaps in coverage by reference to
census materials, and that the reported
compilations from taxpayers' original returns have been raised for understatement.
The allowance which has been made for
understatement—based largely on an Internal Revenue Service "audit control"
study of sole proprietorships, but supplemented liberally by us where the IRS data
were not applicable—is quite sizable. In
1954, it amounted to $5 billion, or 20 percent of the IRS total of sole proprietorship
and partnership net income to which it
was related.
When the appraisal is directed to the
estimates of personal consumption expen-
76
DATA
SOURCES AND
PROCEDURES
ditures, it is clear that a high degree of
reliability attaches to this large segment of
the gross national product. But there would
appear to be several reasons for drawing
a distinction—less favorable—between the
estimates of consumer expenditures and
those of personal income. The more important are as follows:
1. There is no counterpart in personal
consumption expenditures to the accuracy
that is imparted to personal income by the
estimates of wages and salaries, dividends,
and transfer payments.
2. The estimating procedures applied to
consumer commodities are fairly complex.
3. Certain basic statistical sources on
which the estimates of consumer services
rely are rather infrequent in timing, and
some were not available for 1954 or a proximate year. Most important was the decennial Census of Population and Housing,
upon which one-third of the consumerservice expenditure total for 1950 was
based.
4. In the categories of both commodities and services, the estimation of consumer expenditures is rendered imprecise
at several stages by an inadequacy of requisite statistical data. As will become evident
from the later description of methodology,
a particular handicap is the lack of comprehensive, accurate information for making "consumer allocations"—for segregating sales to consumers from sales to business and government.
There is one final point. By our procedure of having adjusted personal consumption expenditures and left (disposable)
personal income intact, we do not imply
that all of the evident error in personal
saving as initially estimated was concentrated in consumer expenditures. Rather,
we believe the procedure adopted reflects
the substance of the matter—that the bulk
of the error was in consumption but that
a more elaborate assessment and proration
of error would not have been warranted,
from the standpoint of either the extent
of our knowledge or the difference in results which would have obtained.
Commodity Composition
Attention is now directed to another
problem that emerged in the recent work
on personal consumption expenditures. We
refer to the fact that the 1954 revisions
among components of total consumer expenditures for commodities were generally
quite sizable. The situation, we felt, was
not one which could be handled in routine
statistical fashion, by simply adjusting the
provisional, or preliminary, estimates for
1948-54 to the new benchmarks and then
moving forward from 1954 by means of
the same data and procedures which had
proved inadequate. Accordingly, the meth
odology of interpolation and extrapolation
in the commodity segment of consumer
expenditures has been altered in order to
improve the estimates for past periods and
to prevent a recurrence of large biases in
the future.
BACKGROUND OF PROBLEM
Prior to an explanation of this change
in methodology, the background and dimensions of the problem which gave rise
to it may be explored briefly.
Our previously published postwar estimates of consumer expenditures for individual commodity groups were based, in
the main, on an extrapolation from 1947
by retail sales. In itself this method cannot
take account of year-by-year changes in
the relative importance of business purchases at retail and consumer purchases
outside retail trade—allowances for which
are difficult to make. But a more significant shortcoming of retail trade data in
this application is that, with the exception
of department store sales, they are not
available by commodities, but according
to a not very detailed classification by type
of store.
This classification assigns a store to a
single category on the basis of the commodity accounting for the principal part
of its business. But food stores, for instance,
sell goods other than food, and food is sold
also in other types of retail outlets, including drug and department stores. With
diverse movements in the sales of various
commodities, use of sales data classified by
type of store to move commodity groups
will give rise to errors which, however, may
be presumed to show an offsetting
tendency.
This was borne out by our experience in
the revisions made 4 years ago. The projections of consumer commodities from 1939
by retail sales missed the commodity-flow
benchmark total for 1947 by only 3 percent, and the record for the individual commodity groups was mixed. However, for
an extrapolation procedure covering an 8year period marked by extensive war and
postwar changes and a near tripling in
total dollar expenditures, the results were
considered "broadly satisfactory." There
was no clear pattern of bias and, with the
reservations expressed in the 1954 National
Income supplement, we continued to use
retail sales as an index of consumer expenditures. They provided the basis for interpolating between the 1939 and 1947
commodity-flow benchmarks and, as noted,
for moving the latter forward.
When the extrapolations for 1954 are
compared with the new commodity-flow
benchmarks for that year, two facts are
readily evident: (1) The differences
among commodity groups are generally
substantial; and (2) these, however, are
approximately canceling so that the overall
totals agree quite well, even apart from the
1/4 -percent reduction that was applied to
the benchmark figures.
For the commodity groups, the extent of
divergence between provisional and benchmark estimates found for 1954 was considerably greater than that for 1947 (as
shown on page 105 of the 1954 Supplement). We of course regard with particular concern the discrepancy which developed in the important food series. Our
published estimate for that component for
1954 has been lowered by 10 percent, or
$7.0 billion; and for 1957 the corresponding revisions amount to 115/2 percent, or
$9.8 billion.
Based principally on the results of the
1954 Census of Retail Trade, tests show
that these errors in the consumer commodity figures may be attributed only in
generally minor part to biases in the estimates of retail sales. Instead, they centered mainly in this particular application
of the retail sales data—in using them to
indicate changes in consumer expenditures
by commodity lines.
In the food category alone, very little
of the overall upward bias was due to errors
in the retail sales figures which we used.
Part of this bias came from the procedure
of utilizing retail sales information to extrapolate food sold outside retail channels,
which our 1954 benchmark study showed
had actually declined somewhat from
1947. But the bulk of the discrepancy in
the food series evidently resulted from a
shift in the composition of food store sales
toward nonfood types of merchandise. This
same shift contributed largely to the general understatement which characterized
the provisional estimates of consumer expenditures for nonfood commodities.
STEPS IN NEW PROCEDURE
Because of this record of revisions, the
procedure of simply using retail sales to
move from one census period to the next
has been modified as follows for the large
"commodity flow" segment of personal
consumption expenditures:
1. Overall totals for this segment were
established for the years 1948-53 by using
the published estimates (based on the retail
sales extrapolation from 1947) to interpolate between the 1947 and 1954 benchmarks. Similar totals for 1955-57 were
derived as the sum of component estimates
extrapolated from 1954 by the usual retail
sales procedure. In this initial key step of
setting up "control" totals, we were guided
by the fact that for both 1947 and 1954 the
provisional estimates based on the movement of retail sales turned out quite well
in the aggregate as compared with the
benchmarks.
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
2. For 1951, special estimates were developed by individual commodity groups
and then, through a downward adjustment
of 3 percent, made to conform with the
independently derived total. These estimates, to be described below, were based
for nonfood lines on an abbreviated commodity-flow approach utilizing product
data from the Census Bureau's Annual
Survey of Manufactures; for food expenditures, on a Department of Agriculture
series on the retail value of domestic farm
foods bought by civilian consumers (reconciled to our concept and adjusted through
interpolation to the food expenditure estimates for 1947 and 1954 prepared by the
basic commodity-flow method). The Agriculture series, which is available annually,
has corresponded well in movement to the
estimates of consumer expenditures for
food derived in our various commodityflow studies.
These "secondary" benchmark estimates
for 1951 provided valuable additional information bearing on the commodity distribution of consumer expenditures within
the period 1947-54. As it turned out, they
differed quite significantly from figures for
1951 based on an interpolation by retail
sales, and in general are assuredly superior
to them. In such an interpolation, lack of
information necessitates the assumption
that the bias or error observed for the
terminal benchmark year developed in an
approximately cumulative, straight-line
fashion during the period.
3. Another "secondary" benchmark distribution was established for 1956. It
proved feasible to base this one wholly on
the (abbreviated) commodity-flow procedure, for food expenditures as well as
for the various other commodity groups.
An upward adjustment of about l*/s> percent was required to bring the individual
commodity estimates into line with the
"control" total.
For a number of groups, the estimates
yielded by the 1956 abbreviated commodity-flow procedure differed little from
the 2-year extrapolations based on retail
sales. A notable variation appeared in food,
with the series based on the movements of
retail food store sales again exhibiting too
sharp a rise. It is to be noted, however,
that the further bias resulting from this
method should not be calculated as the
difference between the food revisions in
1956 and 1954. Of this difference, $2/ 2
billion, roughly one-half may be said to
have stemmed from this bias. About $%
billion may be ascribed to our treatment
of the sales data themselves in the provisional procedure, and about $/ 2 billion
to the previous error in level in 1954.2
2. That is, with our level off by $7.0 billion for
1954, even a correct extrapolation would have meant
a further error of $% billion for 1956, given the
8 percent rise in food expenditures which occurred
over the 2-year period.
4. At this stage, with distributions for
the commodity-flow segment available for
1947, 1951, 1954, and 1956, estimates for
other years of the post-1947 period were
derived by interpolation and extrapolation,
with adjustment to the previously established totals. For this purpose, use was
made of the Agriculture Department's
series for food expenditures and our own
retail sales-based series for the other groups.
By way of recapitulation, the current
method of estimating consumer commodities for the preponderant "commodity
flow" segment has these main ingredients:
(1) Development of periodic benchmarks
from the Census of Manufactures and
Census of Business; (2) the setting of
control-totals for other years through interpolation and extrapolation by an aggregate series constructed from components
based on the movement of retail sales data
classified by type of store; (3) the establishment for selected years of commodity
distributions derived from an abbreviated
commodity-flow method; and (4) the
preparation of distributions for other years
through an interpolation (and extrapolation) procedure based for food expenditures on Department of Agriculture data
and for other commodity lines on the OBE
"components" series noted above, based on
changes in retail sales.
As compared with the former procedure
of simply extending the commodity-flow
benchmarks by the component series based
on the movement of retail sales, this revised approach very probably represents a
distinct improvement insofar as the commodity composition of the total is concerned. It lessens the emphasis on the
retail sales-based series, and, through the
abbreviated commodity-flow distributions
which will be updated from year to year,
it should prove adequate to spot the main
biases developing in the current extrapolations.
At the same time, while the new procedure is likely an improvement over the
old, it still rests to a considerable, if lessened, extent on the retail-store sales
approach which has proved inadequate on
a commodity basis. Further, the "abbreviated" commodity-flow procedure needs
strengthening in a number of places; in
particular, it cannot be regarded as sufficiently reliable to register annual changes
accurately.
These considerations bearing on the estimates for noncensal years are apart from
the fact that the basic commodity-flow
procedure itself cannot yield precise measures, or realize its reliability potential,
given the source materials presently available for its implementation.
This need for better data on consumer
expenditures is emphasized in the listing
of major data gaps at the conclusion of
this chapter. Meanwhile, additional infor-
77
mation on the elements of strength and
weakness in the present methodology for
consumer expenditures is provided in the
immediately following description. For
commodities, this supplements the foregoing general account by filling in some
details about procedures in the "commodity flow" area, as well as by covering the
series estimated by other methods. For services also there is provided a summary of
methodology underlying the present revisions.
Commodity Flow Method, 1954
The commodity-flow method used in
making the new benchmark estimates for
1954 was closely similar to that which had
been followed for 1947. Basic values were
those of the 1954 manufacturing census,
classified and allocated product by product.
These products, together with an allowance
for nonmanufactured foods based on Department of Agriculture data, were combined into consumption groups and then
raised from producers' values to consumer
expenditure levels by adding transportation
costs, trade markups, and taxes with lesser
adjustments for exports, imports, and
inventory changes. In the estimation of the
important markup element, the principal
sources were the 1954 wholesale census and
tabulations of Federal income tax returns
for that year by the Internal Revenue
Service; retail markups, in particular, were
based on a special sample of tax returns,
as were the 1947 markups.
MANUFACTURING DATA
At the manufacturing level, the first task
was to classify the full census array of commodities into the categories of "finished,"
"unfinished," and "mixed," according to
the definitions given in the 1954 National
Income supplement. This classification was
greatly facilitated by the extent of commodity detail—approximately 6,000 separate products—reported in the 1954 census.
Such detail serves to break up otherwise
mixed product items into products which
can be assigned individually, thus reducing
the problem of allocation.
The greater number of the commodities
reported could be classified directly as
either finished or unfinished. An overwhelming proportion of commodities in
this initial finished classification could be
assigned immediately to either the consumer commodity or producers' durable
category. However, some finished commodities fell into both of these categories,
and so required allocation. This problem
was not important.
Commodities which could not be classified directly as wholly finished or unfinished—the "mixed" commodities—re-
78
DATA
SOURCES AND
PROCEDURES
quired special study to allocate them among
the categories of consumer commodities,
producers' durables, and unfinished. Such
study, a key element in the commodity-flow
procedure, received little direct assistance
from the Census reports. The principal
lack was information on the distribution of
manufacturers5 sales by class of customer,
which the 1954 census, like its 1947 predecessor, did not collect (except in the case
of book publishing). Sales distribution data
had been a feature of the prewar manufacturing censuses.
With such data unavailable, 1947 allocation ratios were generally assumed to
apply to 1954, although in a limited number of cases modifications were introduced
on the basis of a clear change in conditions
or the advice of industry experts. Unfortunately, however, the 1947 allocation ratios
themselves had drawn rather heavily on
those for 1939, the latest year for which
sales distribution data were collected.
The judgmental factor, in short, played
much too large a role in the 1954 product
allocations. And it was somewhat larger
than in the 1947 estimates, to which the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, in its work on
interindustry flows, had provided considerable special assistance in this particular
phase of the commodity-flow procedure.
TRACING THE FLOW
In the earlier commodity-flow estimates
through 1939, manufacturers' sales to their
various classes of customers, together with
similar distributions of wholesalers' sales,
had been the basis for tracing the flow of
commodities through wholesale and retail
channels, as well as for estimating direct
factory sales to consumers.
For wholesaling, it was again necessary
in the 1954 estimates to give up the commodity-flow approach, since the requisite
distribution data for estimating wholesalers' purchases—the core of this approach—were not available. The substitute
procedure, which is complex and probably
less reliable, was like that devised for 1947.
For retailing, however, omission of sales
distributions from the 1954 (and 1947)
Census of Manufactures did not prevent
continuation of the commodity-flow treatment. Retailers' purchases of consumption
commodities could be estimated somewhat
indirectly and without significant error,
by procedures explained in the 1954
Supplement.
The critical requirement was for information on retail markups, which alone account for one-third of the final consumer
value of commodities estimated by the
commodity-flow method. It may be said
that the information on this element which
has been available for the past two commodity-flow studies has been inadequate
for the needs of national income calcula
tions. It has been an area of retrogression
in the Federal statistical program from our
point of view.
The estimation of retail markups for
1954 departed little from 1947 procedure.
The principal source was a sample of Federal income tax returns for 25 kinds of
business, provided by the Bureau of the
Census and the Internal Revenue Service.
This was drawn from Census lists as a
probability sample stratified by sales size,
with about 300 cases in each kind of
business or 7,000 in all. However, many
tax returns in the sample could not be
located and the number of cases which
finally could be used approximated 4,000.
One other observation may be made concerning the data sources which were available for raising the consumption commodity groups from producers' to final consumer values. This has to do with the fact
that the 1954 business census fell short of
its 1948 counterpart in several respects
significant to the consumer commodity estimates. It did not obtain data on commodity breakdowns of retailers' sales; and
it did not tabulate and report the service
receipts of retailers, the merchandise sales
of service trades, and most of the data
collected on inventories in trade.
change, retailers' inventory change, re
tailers' markups, and retail excise and sale
taxes; other steps in the procedure wer<
based on 1947 relationships, as exemplifiec
by the extrapolation of transportatior
charges from 1947 by manufacturers' shipments plus excise taxes. For the importani
retail markup element, the 1947 commodity group rates were extrapolated to 1951
mainly by department store data from the
National Retail Dealers' Association, as
well as by Internal Revenue Service data,
and applied to estimated retailers' cost of
sales. The overall markup ratio turned out
to be intermediate between the comparable
figures for 1947 and 1954.
Six commodity groups—women's clothing, men's clothing, jewelry and watches,
drugs, trailers, and magazines and newspapers—were accorded separate treatment
in the 1951 study. Consumer expenditures
for these groups, selected because of their
particular characteristics in relation to the
data situation, were interpolated between
1947 and 1954 by the estimates of manufacturers' shipments.
The 1956 study was based upon somewhat better shipments data. Also noteworthy, it covered the food group—manufactured food through the Annual Survey,
and nonmanufactured food through Agriculture Department data in a procedure
that shortcut the extensively detailed
^Secondary" Benchmarks
benchmark effort by carrying out the alloThe abbreviated commodity-flow pro- cations of farmers' cash receipts for relacedures that yielded the "secondary" tively broad product classes.
The actual method adopted for the
benchmarks for 1951 and 1956 were based
various
commodity groups for 1956 was
principally on the Census Bureau's Annual
Survey of Manufactures. The product quite abbreviated, mainly because data of
(shipments) data collected in this survey the type used for 1951 were not fully
are much less detailed than those in a full available to estimate retailers' markups.
census, and are subject to marked sampling Specifically, manufacturers' shipments were
variability for some of the consumption classified and allocated, and imports were
expenditure groups. However, the Annual added and exports subtracted; and the
Survey has shown decided improvement in shipments series so adjusted was used to
these and other respects since its initiation extrapolate the 1954 final expenditure
estimates for the individual commodity
in 1950.
In these summary applications of the groups. Finally, inventory changes were incommodity-flow method, the classification troduced. These were derived from Census
and allocation of reported product data Bureau monthly inventory series and IRS
conformed with decisions made in the Business Indicators data—which sources
benchmark studies. The allocations for were not sufficiently detailed for our pur1951, for example, were based on rates pose and permitted only rough estimation
of inventory adjustments by commodity
for both 1947 and 1954, interpolated if
necessary at four-sevenths of the difference groups.
The present situation calls for the instibetween them. The 1956 allocations were
held at the 1954 rates. For both "second- tution of commodity-flow estimates on an
ary" benchmarks, the allocation rates were annual basis. The clear requirement is for
applied to 5-digit classes of manufactured continued improvement in the annual
products, which were the finest detail manufacturing surveys and increased availability of auxiliary data, notably on reavailable in the 1951 and 1956 Surveys.
The 1951 commodity-flow study, as al- tailers' markups.
ready noted, did not cover food. For most
individual groups, all steps in the 1947
benchmark procedure—as outlined in the Interpolating Series for Food
exhibit on page 111 of the 1954 Supplement—were carried out. Actual estimates
The earlier general account of problems
were made for manufacturers' excise taxes, encountered with the recent estimates of
imports and exports, wholesalers' inventory consumer expenditures noted that the ex-
HOW
trapolation of food expenditures by retail
store sales had led to substantial error, and
that we had introduced a revised series
utilizing figures of the Department of Agriculture for interpolation of periodic "commodity flow" estimates. A brief description
of this interpolating series is in order.
The series is derived by making a number of adjustments to the published figures
of the Agricultural Marketing Service on
the retail cost of farm foods purchased by
domestic civilian consumers. In the preparation of these figures, the basic value
data are the AMS estimates of cash receipts from farm marketings, which are
allocated or adjusted to represent only food
for civilian consumption. These farm
values then are raised to a retail basis by
the application of ratios of retail prices
to farm prices for equivalent units; the
minimum procedure is to mark up a group
of related foods by the average ratio for
a selection of items in the group, but if
data permit ratios are applied for individual subgroups or product classes. The overall method allows for waste and loss, byproducts, nonfood use, food for export and
military use, interfarm sales, and changes
in stocks (except retail stocks). Elements
of retail price covering changes in manufacturing and marketing services may not
always be reflected fully. But where reasonably good estimates of prices and volumes
are possible, account is taken of such
changes as the increased proportion of
potatoes sold as potato chips, or the additional cost involved in shifts to smaller
sizes of canned fruits and vegetables.
To this published AMS series on the retail cost of farm foods bought by civilian
consumers, adjustments must be made in
order to approximate the definition of food
expenditures (excluding alcoholic beverages) in the national accounts. Among
these, the additions needed to cover nonfarm foods (fishery products) and imported food are estimated by the AMS.
Principal adjustments which we make are
the deduction of food such as hospital
meals treated otherwise in the national accounts, the addition of military food,
the incorporation of retailers' inventory
changes, and the bringing of trade margins
implicit in the AMS series into conformity
with our definition. These various adjustments are not large in relation to the overall food total and, although statistically
crude in some respects, are not capable of
engendering appreciable errors.
Other Methods, 1954
From commodity-flow benchmarks and
interpolation procedure, we turn briefly
to the groups estimated by other methods,
which contribute about one-fifth of all
commodity expenditures by consumers. In
total, these groups were revised upward for
1954 by $2/ 2 billion, or 9 percent. This
change was due entirely to the increased
allocations to consumers of expenditures
for passenger cars and related products,
which are discussed later. Apart from this
factor, revisions would on balance have
reduced the total of these groups moderately.
In this category, automotive expenditures are predominant and "retail valuation"—estimated quantity purchased multiplied by an appropriate average retail
price—is the principal method. The pricing of new passenger cars continues to require careful study, although a major advance serving to facilitate this was brought
about by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
through reflection of allowances and discounts in new car prices beginning in
1954. In our method, imported cars have
been accorded separate treatment because
of their increased importance. Used car
margins, moreover, have been put on a
somewhat firmer basis, with the Automobile Manufacturers Association, National
Automobile Dealers Association, and Bureau of the Census each contributing data
for the past few years which were not previously available.
Expenditures for gasoline and oil, like
the estimates of passenger car purchases,
were affected substantially by the new consumer-allocation ratio. Otherwise, the only
noteworthy change in method occurred in
the average price series which is applied to
the estimated quantity of gasoline to obtain expenditures prior to consumer allocation. The retail pricing now draws mainly
on BLS data, which, along with price information from the Agricultural Marketing
Service, have been introduced to supplement the Texas Company price series long
used in this estimate.
The series on purchased fuel and ice
(combined with fuel produced and consumed on farms in the expenditure table)
is unique in its reliance upon retail valuations for periodic revisions and upon retail
sales data for extrapolations. It did not
escape the biases generally imparted by the
latter. The various source materials available for the 1954 benchmark estimate were
generally the same as those which had
been used for 1947.
New data were incorporated in the
tobacco series, which is also estimated by
the retail valuation method, but these made
no appreciable difference in the final
values.
Comment may also be made on several
of the imputations. Two imputed items of
consumer commodities, food and fuel produced and consumed on farms, are supplied by the Agricultural Marketing Service. These were changed moderately in the
recent AMS review of its postwar farm
income series. For another imputed series—
THE ESTIMATES
WERE
MADE
79
standard clothing issued to military personnel—only slight revisions were found necessary.
Services
The postwar revisions of total consumer
expenditures for services included in this
report are quite small. For 1954, the new
aggregate of $86.3 billion is approximately
one-half percent lower than the one it replaced. Prior to the overall adjustment of
1954 consumer expenditures discussed
above, the services total was 1 percent
higher than the previously published estimate. It may be added that this latter
difference, in turn, was about equivalent to
the amount by which consumer services
were affected by the increase in the ratio
for allocating the automobile service items
between consumers and business.
The good showing of the estimates of
consumer service expenditures in the aggregate reflected a substantial offsetting in
the revisions made for individual components. While these revisions in general attest
to the need for better data, it should be
observed that the largest percentage revisions occurred for the most part in items
of relatively small magnitude, and that a
few of the most sizable changes—around
one-fifth—resulted mainly from the special
new auto-allocation study. This study—as
described below—was the first of its kind in
many years, and we expect to keep a closer
watch on this phase of the estimates than
has been possible in the past, and thereby
minimize the errors from this source.
Apart from the auto-allocation study,
the principal new source materials utilized
in the revision of consumer services were
the Census of Business for 1954 and Internal Revenue Service tabulations of the
receipts of professional practitioners for
the years 1953-56. Numerous, more specific, sources of information, extending
over the entire range of the services, were
also taken into account. It may be added
that consumer expenditures for services
represent one of the most detailed areas
of estimation in the field of national income, with the 55 service items for which
expenditures are shown in table 11-4 actually comprised of several hundred sepa~
rate series of estimates.
CENSUS OF BUSINESS DATA
Benchmark data for items accounting for
about one-sixth of total consumer expenditures for services are obtained from the
Census of Business. Data utilized in preparing these estimates consist of the service
receipts of retailers as well as of service
establishments.
Receipts data reported in the 1954 Census of Business supplied the basis for new
80
DATA
SOURCES AND
PROCEDURES
estimates comparable to the previous
benchmarks for 1948.3 Only moderate
changes were called for in most Censusbased items as the result of the new data;
exceptions were the laundering and radio
and television series, which were reduced
by 9 percent and 21 percent, respectively.
The usefulness of the 1954 Census of
Business data for the present estimates was
restricted by the lack of certain breakdowns formerly provided. In particular,
separate tabulations of receipts from services and receipts from commodity sales,
which had been included in earlier censuses, were not available for 1954. In most
cases, service receipts were estimated on
the basis of their relationship to total receipts in 1948. However, for two areas
where this breakdown is of particular importance—automobile repair and radio
and television repair—the Census Bureau
supplied special samples.
Although the upward revision of 18 percent in the automobile repair item in 1954
stemmed almost entirely from the new
auto-allocation ratio, the method of deriving total auto repair expenditures prior to
allocation was also changed. Census data
were used for estimating the receipts of
service establishments from this source,
but the corresponding service receipts of
new car dealers were derived from sample
data prepared by the National Automobile
Dealers Association. The reported data in
the form of repair labor costs (on new and
used cars) as a percent of new cars sold
were doubled to allow roughly for parts
used in making repairs, and then multiplied by the number of new car sales. This
allowance for parts was based on the BLS
1947 Interindustry Relations Study and on
a cost breakdown contained in the yearbook issue of "Mail-Me-Monday Barometer
of Small Business," published by the Accounting Corporation of America.
For the three largest professions, the
most recent data collected in the OBE surveys pertained to the year 1948 for dentists,
to 1949 for physicians, and to 1954 for lawyers. The information on lawyers' incomes,
covering the years 1947-54, was not available in time for the previous revision of
the national income and product statistics,
but has been fully incorporated in the
present report. The results of the legal survey, which was carried out with the cooperation of the American Bar Association,
were published in the December 1956 issue
PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
OTHER CHANGES
The Office of Business Economics periodically has conducted sample questionnaire surveys to obtain basic data for estimating the professional services category
of proprietors' income and of consumer
expenditures for services. With regard to
the latter, survey information on the average gross incomes of professional persons
from independent practice, and on the
percentage of gross income received from
individuals (as contrasted with government and business), has been used in conjunction with available information on the
total number of persons in each profession
to secure the consumer expenditure
estimates.
As indicated, besides incorporating Census and IRS data and taking into account
the new auto allocation, we reexamined
all the individual service series and made
revisions on the basis of any new information available or any change in procedure
deemed advisable. Almost all the items
were modified, at least to some degree;
the more important revisions may be noted
briefly.
Several revisions on the income side of
the accounts—discussed later—affected
service items. A reworking of wages and
salaries in the "private households" industry, for example, was carried over directly
into the "domestic service" component of
consumer services, which is the same as
employee compensation in that industry.
Also in wages and salaries, a revision of
the religious-organizations component of
3. These latter estimates, together with the series
used to interpolate and extrapolate the benchmark
estimates, are described in some detail in the 1954
National Income supplement.
of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS.
In the professional services area, the material available from OBE surveys has been
supplemented by tabulations from the Internal Revenue Service. These cover the
gross receipts of professional practitioners
as compiled from Federal income tax returns of individuals for the years 1953-56
and of partnerships for 1953 and 1956.
Both sets of figures for 1956 were provided
in Business Indicators, to which previous
references have been made.
This body of IRS information has been
used to indicate the movements of consumer expenditures for the various types
of professional services in the more recent
period. Such use of the gross receipts data
may be expected to be generally valid, by
reason of the fact that a very large proportion of the business done by independent
professional persons is with consumers. The
outstanding exception is provided by lawyers, only about one-half of whose gross
income from independent practice is received from individuals.
Our revisions of consumer expenditures
for the services of physicians and lawyers
were fairly moderate, but they were very
substantial in the case of dental services.
The 1948 results from our last survey of
dental incomes had been carried forward
on the basis of indirect data and methods.
the "nonprofit membership organizations'
industry affected the "religious and welfare
activities" component of consumer services
because such payrolls are used to extrapolate the portion of expenditures in this
category benchmarked on the 1936 Census
of Religious Bodies.
Service expenditures in the important
"Housing" category also underwent revision, as discussed presently in connection
with rental income of persons. As a result
of the incorporation of new source materials, both the space rental value of owneroccupied nonfarm dwellings and the space
rent of tenant-occupied nonfarm dwellings
were changed moderately—each by about
4 / 2 percent, for example, in 1954.
Procedural changes brought about a
quite sizable revision in the consumer service series for private elementary and secondary schools. This series formerly had
been derived as the product of (a) reported
enrollment in these schools, and (b) the
estimated average expenditure per pupil
in public elementary and secondary
schools. For this report, we modified item
(b) so as to reflect the estimated postwar
movement in average expenditures for
pupils of private elementary and secondary
schools, utilizing for this purpose mainly
the National Income Division's estimates
of the payrolls of these schools.
The estimates of interest on personal
debt have been raised considerably—11
percent in 1954. This change centered
mainly in revisions of the Federal Reserve
Board's consumer credit statistics.
As a final note, consumer allocations
were reviewed (in addition to those for
autos) and changes were made notably for
these series: Telephones, airlines, hotels
and other lodging places, street and electric
railways, electricity, and motion pictures.
The information on which these revisions
were based was generally fragmentary
since, on the whole, data for making consumer allocations of service expenditures
are unsatisfactory. This situation has an
important effect on certain individual
series such as hotels; but, with respect to
the total, components adding to only about
one-tenth of all consumer service expenditures constitute a substantial allocation
problem—a point discussed in the 1954
Supplement.
Passenger Car Allocation
Since passenger car sales are not reported separately by type of purchaser—individuals, business, and government—this
breakdown must be developed for purposes
of gross national product estimation. After
allowance for government purchases, it is
necessary to allocate expenditures for new
cars and for used cars (dealers' gross
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
margins) between personal consumption
expenditures and producers' durable equipment. The problem of making this allocation is complicated by the fact that passenger cars are frequently used partly for
business and partly for personal purposes.
In general, the attempt is made in the
present estimating procedure to allocate to
business use all passenger car outlays which
are charged to business expense.
Formerly, new passenger car sales and
gross margins on used cars were allocated
70 percent to personal consumption expenditures and 30 percent to producers'
durable equipment (except for World War
II, when the new car allocation to business
was raised). These proportions were derived mainly from surveys made by the
Bureau of Public Roads to determine road
use in terms of mileage.
More recent studies by the Bureau of
Public Roads indicate that the relationship
between personal and business usage has
changed considerably, and the present estimates have been revised in line with this
finding.
The new reference base has been the
Bureau's surveys of motor vehicle use
taken variously during the period 1950-54,
based upon representative samples drawn
from 17 States. Analysis of the data, both
published and unpublished, collected in
these surveys indicates that—on the basis
of mileage driven—83 percent of the sales
of new passenger cars and gross margins
on used cars is allocable to personal consumption expenditures, and 17 percent to
producers' durables.
Tests indicated that the 17-State data
are probably representative, that is, that
the results which they showed were about
the same as would have obtained from a
full-scale surveying of all the States. First,
the 17 States yielded the same 70-30 allocation pattern for 1934-37 as had the
entire survey for that period; and, secondly,
they showed a prewar-to-postwar percentage increase in passenger car registrations
closely similar to that for the United States
total.
The old allocation has been retained
through 1947 on the ground that the consumer proportion probably did not rise in
the early postwar years when automobiles
were still in short supply and business firms
continued—as they did during the war
period—to obtain a larger than normal
share of supplies available. The new allocation has been introduced into the estimates starting with 1953 and linked to the
former 70-30 pattern by straight-line interpolation back to 1947.
Corroboration of the new 83-17 ratio—
or at least of a substantial shift from the
former 70-30 allocation—was found in
several independent sources. (1) Unpublished data tabulated from the 1950 BLS
Consumer Expenditure Survey, while only
partly relevant to the present estimate,
clearly indicated that the existing 70 percent allocation to personal use was too low
for the more recent period. (2) Calculations based upon the Federal Reserve
Board study, Financing New Car Purchases, showed that in 1954 and 1955 business users made about 20 percent of all new
car purchases. However, in view of the
faster turnover of cars used by business,
the proportion of the total stock of cars in
business use must be less than 20 percent.
(3) Studies for recent years made by the
Dominion Bureau of Statistics for the Canadian national income estimates show
about the same breakdown between business and personal use of automobiles as
the new United States benchmark. It is
significant that the Canadian prewar allocation also was 70—30.
While these independent studies serve to
confirm the general reasonableness of the
revised allocation, this estimate is rough
and continues to involve a considerable
measure of judgment. Currently under
way is a comprehensive study which promises to yield more definitive results, and
which could be repeated at regular intervals. This study entails the collection of
direct data on the net outlays (purchases
81
minus sales) of new and used passenger cars
by both consumers and business. The results
will be based upon a coordination of information from three sources: (a) A special
questionnaire to the respondents of the
OBE-SEC Plant and Equipment Survey,
data from which are already at hand; (b)
the Federal Reserve Board Survey of Consumer Finances for 1958; and (c) a survey,
yet to be undertaken, of the auto purchases
of the major car rental companies.
The shift from a 70-30 to 83-17 automobile allocation, it may be noted finally, has
had a quite noticeable effect on the estimates. For the year 1954, for example, this
particular revision raised consumer expenditures for passenger cars (new and used) by
$1.6 billion; lowered producers' purchases
of durable equipment by the same amount;
and raised consumer expenditures for tires,
tubes, accessories, and parts by $0.3 billion,
for gasoline and oil by $1.2 billion, and for
automobile repairs, insurance, and tolls by
$% billion.
As will be evident, the revisions stemming from the passenger car series were
offsetting between consumer expenditures
and producers' durables, and hence did not
affect the gross national product total. The
Fig. 34
Distribution of Gross National Product, 1957
Total $440 Billion
Net
Exports
1.1%
Consumer I
Expenditures {
64.6%
I
82
DATA
SOURCES AND
PROCEDURES
other revisions, however, increased the
GNP (by a little over $2 billion in 1954)
through their effect on consumer expenditures. The business-use portion of expenditures for gasoline and oil, tires, accessories,
repair work, etc., is an intermediate product not included in the gross national product, and therefore cannot counterbalance
an error in the consumer-use portion.
FIXED NONRESIDENTIAL
INVESTMENT
Producers' durable equipment, as already explained, was the second major
component of GNP to undergo a thorough
statistical reworking. In turning to this, we
shall cover the broader area of "fixed nonresidential investment," which includes not
only the producers' durable item but also
private construction except housing. This
treatment is followed, even though the construction series has not been revised, in
order to put the work done on producers'
durables into perspective.
Consideration is given also to the OBESEC series on new plant and equipment expenditures. This series, as well as that on
construction, was taken into account in
setting the final estimates of producers'
purchases of durable equipment. As will be
seen, the essential approach was twofold:
(a) Preparing annual estimates of producers' durable equipment for the period
1947-56, and (b) modifying this series in
the light of a check made on the movement
of producers' durables plus private nonresidential construction against plant and
equipment expenditures adjusted approximately to the GNP concept.
In this area of fixed nonresidential investment, then, we have dealt with three
series of estimates. The following brief account of the scope and main statistical
characteristics of these series will be helpful
in understanding the uses which we have
made of them.
PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIPMENT
This component of the gross national
product is defined to cover newly produced
durable equipment (with an average life
exceeding 1 year) acquired by private business enterprises and nonprofit institutions.
It is estimated by type of commodity, as
shown in table V-4.
The "commodity flow" method is the
basic procedure followed in estimating producers' durable equipment. The application of this method, similar in its essentials
to that already described for consumer
commodities, entails segregating finished
producers' durables from total manufacturing output and then tracing their flow
through distributive channels so as to arrive
modities, has two particular features which
contribute to reliability. First, the problem
of "allocation" is mitigated by the fact
that manufacturers' sales of finished durable equipment (apart from the special
problem of government purchases) can be
derived, in general, from the vast amount
of detailed product data in the Census of
Manufactures through selection of items
in their entirety or allocation of "mixed"
items having relatively little other use.
Secondly, and more important, the successive estimating adjustments to manufacturers' sales required by the commodityflow method do not bulk large in the case
of producers' durable equipment, and are
virtually offsetting. That is, the estimation
required to convert producers' value to
final market values is less than in the consumer commodity series—chiefly because
only a comparatively small volume of producer durables flows through retail
channels.
(b) On the other hand, it is very difficult in some cases to segregate parts, or
components, from finished equipment; this
is especially true of the segment of producer durables comprised of products customarily charged by business to current
expense, instead of amortized through depreciation allowances. And difficulties are
also encountered for some commodities in
making the correct classification in relation to construction, the definition of which
calls for the inclusion of the installed value
of equipment generally considered an integral part of a structure and commonly
included in the construction contract price.
For the handling of these problems, actual survey information is required. The
classification and allocation offinisheddurable equipment rest to an undue degree on
persona] judgment, notwithstanding the
assistance afforded by the extensive product detail in the Census of Manufactures.
(c) The parenthetical reference above,
"apart from the special problem of government purchases," signifies another phase
of the commodity-flow method which
sometimes has impaired accuracy. As already indicated, government purchases
are deducted from manufacturers' sales as
a separate step in the procedure, and the
CONSIDERATIONS OF RELIABILITY.
I t is
underlying data on this item have genernot easy to rate the producer durables series ally been quite imprecise. The amounts of
as to reliability, although it may be said such purchases deducted have varied
in general that any overall appraisal must widely, from a few hundred million dollars
be favorable. The principal elements which in 1947 to a peak of $6.8 billion in 1952.
must be taken into account in judging the For 1954 and 1956, the estimated amounts
accuracy of the series tend to change were $4.0 billion and $3.0 billion, respecmarkedly in relative importance from one tively.
period to the next, and the difficulty is
(d) As might be expected, commodityalso enhanced by the fact that it has not flow estimates of producer durables other
been possible to utilize uniform source ma- than for years based on the Census of
terials. Following, however, are the points Manufactures are of lesser reliability,
of main relevance to a statistical appraisal. though generally adequate. For the postwar
(a) The application of the commodity- period estimates for nonbenchmark years—
flow method to producers' durables, as those other than 1947 and 1954—are
compared with that to consumer com- based principally on the Census Bureau's
at the final costs to purchasers. Currently,
business passenger cars—around 10 percent
of the total—are the only sizable component for which this method is not followed.
New benchmark estimates of producers'
durable equipment were derived for 1954
by procedures which in all major respects
followed those used for 1947, as set forth in
some detail in the 1954 National Income
supplement. The major task again involved
the classification and allocation of the detailed product information collected in the
Census of Manufactures. Attention may be
called, however, to the substantial effort
devoted to obtaining better data on government purchases of durable equipment—
which are subtracted from manufacturers'
shipments to obtain the final estimates of
durable equipment, by commodity groups,
valued at producers' prices.
This effort was only partly successful, for
the data on government equipment purchases which we were able to secure already
embodied some estimation, were in general
not sufficiently detailed for our purposes,
and had to be adjusted by us in various
ways, notably to eliminate the estimated
amounts included for parts and other intermediate products. For Federal Government
purchases, data extending back over most
of the postwar period were obtained from
the Department of Defense and Atomic
Energy Commission; and the usual tabulations of contract awards under the WalshHealey Act were supplied by the Department of Labor. The estimates of equipment
purchased by State and local governments
were pieced together from data, mostly unpublished, provided by the Governments
Division, Bureau of the Census.
Along with the preparation of the new
benchmark figures for 1954, we revised the
annual series on producers' durable equipment back to 1948. A reworking of the annual series was indicated, and made possible, by the new information for 1954 on
manufacturers' shipments and distributors'
markups. In addition, as just indicated,
the data on Government purchases acquired from the Defense Department and
the Atomic Energy Commission covered
not only 1954, but a number of earlier
years as well.
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
Annual Survey of Manufactures, which
was initiated in 1950. These estimates are
subject to sampling variability at the manufactures' sales level—although for most
producer durable groups this is small—and
to errors stemming from the use of benchmark relationships to determine allocations
of the less-detailed product information
available in the Annual Survey, as well as
the major elements of distributive costs.
(e) The series on business passenger
cars, the main group not derived from the
commodity-flow procedures, depends substantially on an allocation between consumers and business which is not very firm.
However, the basis of this allocation has
been improved by the new study which was
undertaken for this report—as described
earlier in connection with the estimates
of personal consumption expenditures.
CONSTRUCTION
The construction component of fixed
business investment—new private construction except nonfarm residential—is estimated in the Business and Defense Services
Administration, Department of Commerce,
from data of widely varying quality. This
series, which is classified by type of construction, is subject to a marked degree of
error because of the uncertainties as to
coverage, valuation, and timing for some
components.
About 40 percent of the total—all except public utility construction, farm construction, and oil and gas well drilling—
is based on monthly reports on contract
awards issued by the F. W. Dodge Corporation. These provide reasonably good
value information for projects covered,
particularly in periods when escalator
clauses and other similar arrangements are
not important. However, use of contract
award reports for this purpose poses difficult problems of estimation because (a)
coverage is not complete, (b) there is a
varying time lag between the reported data
of a contract award and the start of actual
construction, and (c) there is further variation in the rate of progress after the start.
With regard to (a), the F. W. Dodge
Corporation data until recently applied
only to the 37 States east of the Rocky
Mountains, and it was necessary to fill in
estimates for the Western States by reference to building permit information and
reports on construction contract awards appearing in various trade journals. But even
apart from this geographic adjustment, the
scope of the contract awards data does not
purport to be complete; allowance for
undercoverage is based on a raising ratio
developed from the 1939 Census of Construction and from trade sources.
In the absence of definite information on
(b) above, the assumption is made that the
delay between the letting of contract
awards and start of construction averages
one month. Then, with reference to (c),
typical activity patterns which have been
established for various types and sizes of
projects are used to translate the value of
starts into construction activity—to allocate
contract values to the particular time periods during which the work is presumed to
have been done. This procedure cannot be
very precise.
Public utility construction, which accounts for about 30 percent of the private
nonresidential total, is estimated chiefly
from direct reports of work done or paid
for. These come from Federal regulatory
agencies, private corporations, and trade
associations. Statistical problems in this
segment are relatively minor, and the
quality of the estimates is accordingly high.
Reliability is substantially lower for the
remainder of the private nonresidential
series, consisting in roughly equal magnitudes of farm construction and oil and gas
well drilling. The farm series, prepared in
the Agricultural Marketing Service, is developed chiefly from periodic sample surveys of the construction expenditures of
farm operators, with annual interpolations
based on indicators such as estimated consumption of lumber and sales of building
materials in rural areas, and on a variety of
other data. The series on costs of drilling
oil and gas wells has 2 benchmark years,
1939 and 1954, for which data collected in
the Census of Mineral Industries and compiled from trade publications were utilized.
The annual estimates that are tied to these
benchmarks are developed from figures on
the number of wells completed, as reported
in trade sources, and average cost per well
as estimated by adjusting the Census-based
averages to take account of changes in labor
costs and efficiency, material costs, proportion of wildcat ventures, and average depth
of wells.
PLANT AND EQUIPMENT OUTLAYS
These key data on business investment
are collected in regular surveys, quarterly
and annual, which cover the whole of the
private economy except for agriculture,
professional practitioners, nonprofit institutions, and finance, insurance, and real
estate. The plant and equipment series is
constructed mainly from reports to the
Securities and Exchange Commission by
corporations registered with the Commission and from a large sample of unregistered companies, unincorporated and incorporated, maintained in the Office of
Business Economics. Unlike the producer
durable and construction series, the estimates of business expenditures for new
plant and equipment are available in a
breakdown by industry.
The fact that the plant and equipment
83
survey does not cover the entire private
economy—and that separate data for the
noncovered segments are lacking—prevents
its direct incorporation into the gross national product. In addition, the data for
certain industry groups, notably "Commercial and other," would benefit from an
enlargement of the sample. It should also
be noted that the survey has not provided
regular, comprehensive information on a
breakdown of total expenditures into the
separate categories of plant and equipment.
PROCEDURE OF ESTIMATION
In addition to the obvious primary objective of deriving the best possible figures,
the procedure adopted for estimating fixed
nonresidential investment took into account a further consideration. This was the
desirability of utilizing the three series discussed above—showing fixed capital formation by type, on the one hand, and by
industry, on the other—in such a way as
to facilitate their joint use by analysts in
a more or less consistent fashion.4
The approach we have followed, as already briefly indicated, was as follows:
A series for the years 1947-56 was prepared as the sum of private nonfarm residential construction—the regular estimates
issued by the Business and Defense Services
Administration of the Department of Commerce—and of producers' durable equipment. We also prepared a series representing an adjustment of the plant and
equipment survey results. The major such
adjustments—for the purpose of making
the plant and equipment figures conform
more closely in definition to the sum of
the construction and producers' durable
series—consisted of the following additions: (a) Tractors and farm equipment,
based on data provided by the Department
of Agriculture; (b) capital outlays charged
to current expense, as derived in connection with the producers' durable equipment series; and (c) the estimated amount
of producers' purchases of automobiles not
accounted for in the survey. Certain of
these necessary adjustments are rough; and
others which are called for in principle,
such as including the investment of nonprofit institutions, cannot be made for lack
of data. All in all, the adjustments which
have been made secure a series which
is not precise as to level, but rather one
which is regarded as furnishing a fairly
reliable indication of the year-to-year
4. It may be noted that this approach is in line
with the broader plan for development of the basic
data on fixed capital expenditures noted in Chapter
6. The plan regards as necessary for effective
analysis in this area consistent estimates of fixed
investment broken down in three ways : by type of
producers' durable equipment and of construction,
by industry of purchaser, and by legal form of organization of the purchaser.
84
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
movements in fixed nonresidential investment.
In fact, the series is probably more reliable in this respect than is the one derived
as the sum of producers' durable equipment
and private nonresidential construction.
Despite its incompleteness in scope and the
aforementioned need to strengthen sample
coverage in certain areas, the plant and
equipment series covers a preponderant
part of the relevant universe and rests on
reported business data. Estimation is a relatively minor factor, whereas it is a rather
substantial factor in the series obtained by
summing producers' durables and construction activity.
For the period from 1947 to 1954, there
was tolerably good correspondence in
movement between the two series. However, considerable improvement was effected by adjusting the sum of durable
equipment and construction by $1 billion
in each of 3 years. The adjustment was
downward in 1950 and 1954 and upward
in 1952.
In the period 1954-56, however, the two
series differed substantially in movement.
As compared with the adjusted plant and
equipment figures, the equipment-construction series registered a considerably steeper
rise from 1954 to 1955 but increased markedly less from 1955 to 1956. Over the 2year period as a whole, the expansion
shown by the two series was not substantially different—$8/2 billion for the adjusted plant and equipment series and $10
billion for the other.
Unfortunately, the collateral statistical
information that was available for checking which of the two series might be the
more correct was quite limited. About the
only definitive finding pointed to the rise
shown by producers' durable equipment
from 1954 to 1955 as being too large. The
rough test that was made in this connection
involved splitting out the estimated share
of producers' durable equipment purchased
by manufacturers, and comparing the results with investment expenditures as reported in the Census Bureau's Annual Survey of Manufactures.
The course we followed, which was influenced only in part by this test for manufacturing, was to make sizable adjustments
in the equipment-construction totals. The
estimates actually used were derived essentially by averaging the movements of the
adjusted plant and equipment and equipment-construction series from 1954 to 1956.
For the year 1955, the sum of producers'
durable equipment and construction as included in the gross national product is
about $2/2 billion lower than that initially
estimated; for 1956, the corresponding adjustment was roughly $ l / 2 billion.
In point of fact, the various adjustments
that were imposed on the equipment-construction series by use of the adjusted plant
and equipment series were made wholly in
producers' durable equipment. The construction series was not assigned part of
these adjustments by reason of the fact that
it is prepared by another agency and published in a detailed breakdown, and our
changing it for this purpose would have
been inappropriate and would have resulted in confusion and inconvenience on
the part of users.
The adjustments made to producers'
durable equipment in 1950, 1952, and
1954—$1 billion each—were fairly moderate, amounting to about 5 percent of
total purchases of equipment in each of
those years. The adjustment was spread
proportionately among the various commodity groups, as published in table V-5.
The adjustments for 1955 and 1956 were
too large, however, to warrant the maintenance and publication of the commodity
breakdown of producers' durable equipment. It is therefore because of the lack of
consistency shown by the several fixed capital formation series in the period from
1954 to 1956 that we have discontinued—
at least temporarily—the commodity
breakdown of the producers' durable series
after 1954.
SUMMARY NOTE
The procedure which we have followed
of giving weight to the Plant and Equipment Survey was, in part, for the purpose
of achieving a reasonable statistical consistency between the type-of-product data
provided by the producers' durable equipment and construction activity series, on
the one hand, and the industry data provided by the survey, on the other. More
directly, the procedure was intended to
lessen the error in fixed nonresidential investment and also—in this respect—in the
total GNP. We have used the adjusted
plant and equipment data to check upon
and alter the movements shown by the combined total of producers' durable equipment and private nonresidential construction, so that the influence of these two
series in the GNP has been reduced substantially.
The statistical situation in this area of
fixed investment obviously is not satisfactory. The need for better data is clearly
indicated.
There is one point still to be noted—
a procedural one. The foregoing brief account carried the methodology only
through 1956, which was the latest year
for which it was possible to prepare estimates of producers' durable equipment by
the commodity-flow method. It remains
to be added that for the current period—
1957 and 1958 at the present writing—
the estimates of producers' durable equipment, quarterly as well as annual, are obtained through extrapolation by the plant
and equipment series. For the July 1959
National Income Number of the SURVEY,
for example, commodity-flow estimates of
producers' durable equipment will be prepared for 1957; the procedure based on a
comparison of producers' durables plus
construction with the adjusted plant and
equipment series will be resumed; and the
latter series will again be used as the basis
for the current extrapolations.
OTHER
COMPONENTS
Following the descriptions of the work
done on personal consumption expenditures and producers' durable equipment,
attention is now directed to the statistical
changes made in the other components of
GNP. These are discussed under the headings of residential construction, nonfarm
inventories, farm inventories, foreign transactions, and government.
RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION
Revisions in the additions and alterations component of the series on private
nonfarm residential construction, prepared
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, have
been incorporated into the gross national
product. Their effect is to raise the level
of the series substantially for the postwar
period. In magnitude, the revisions vary
from $/ 2 billion in 1945 to around $ 3 / 2
billion in recent years.5 They amounted to
roughly 25 percent of the previously published nonfarm residential building total
for most years, although the proportion is
higher for the early postwar period.
The postwar estimates of expenditures
for residential additions and alterations
had been derived from the BLS regularly
published series on the value of building
permits issued for residential additions and
alterations, adjusted for undercoverage. As
reported in a Technical Note appearing in
the June 1957 Construction Review, joint
publication of the Departments of Commerce and Labor, a new benchmark estimate was prepared for 1950 and the building permit information was then used to
extend it to other years. More precisely,
the latter information provided the basis
for extrapolation back to 1947 and the link
between the new and old series was concentrated in 1945 and 1946—the BLS
assumption being that all of the discrepancy in level between the two series accumulated during that period.
The 1950 benchmark was developed
mainly from two sources: (1) The 1950
5. Because our revisions of the national income
and product series began with 1946, the 1945 revisions of residential construction was not entered in
the accounts.
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
Survey of Consumer Expenditures, which
was made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to collect data for revising the Consumer Price Index and (2) the Federal
Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances for 1951. The former study yielded
a classification of expenditures for additions and alterations as against maintenance and repairs, but was only urban in
coverage. The FRB survey did not provide
a clear distinction between these two categories of outlays but covered all owneroccupied nonfarm structures.
With regard to using the trend of building permits to move the 1950 benchmark to
other years, the procedure may be said to
have obvious potential weakness by reason
of the fact that such data had proved to be
a very deficient indicator of level. On the
other hand, a BLS test shows that the results checked fairly well for most years
against an alternative series derived by basing the extrapolation from 1950 on FRB
estimates of owners' total expenditures on
their homes (including maintenance and
repair as well as major additions and alterations ). The maximum difference occurred
in 1947, for which the extrapolation based
on the FRB data yielded an estimate of additions and alterations about $360 million
higher than the figure of $1,960 million
derived from the trend of building permits.
Despite this substantial revision, the basic
data for estimating the value of residential
construction remain unsatisfactory. The
situation was pointed up most recently in
connection with tabulations from the 1956
National Housing Inventory. After such allowances as are possible for differences in
definition and coverage, the NHI samplebased data on units added by new construction from April 1950 to December 1956
were found to exceed substantially the BLS
series on new nonfarm dwelling units
started during the same period. The latter
series figures prominently in the estimates
of value of nonfarm residential construction as entered in the gross national
product.
This basic discrepancy in the housing
statistics was reported in the Census Bureau's news release of November 23, 1957,
on the National Housing Inventory. It was
noted there that special field surveys would
be conducted in the attempt to obtain a
quantitative evaluation of the discrepancies
now apparent, and to establish the basis
for achieving the largest feasible degree of
comparability between the two series.
As analytical work in this difficult area
goes forward, careful attention will be given
to the implication for the national income
accounts of existing BLS and Census data
and of the results of future surveys.
NONFARM INVENTORIES
The statistical revisions which have been
introduced into the annual estimates of
change in nonfarm business inventories
stem mainly from the availability of Internal Revenue Service data on book values
for 1955 and 1956. The 1955 data were included in the usual Statistics of Income
tabulations; those for 1956 were provided
in Business Indicators, the new report series
previously noted.
For 1957, the estimated changes in book
values were based chiefly on the following
sources: For manufacturing, the OBECensus monthly Industry Survey, supplemented for this purpose by special tabulations covering a group of large corporations not reporting to this Survey; and for
trade, the OBE regular wholesale and retail samples plus preliminary information
from the Census Bureau's Annual Retail
Trade Survey for 1957.
It may be observed in this connection
that the inventory valuation adjustment
has been changed only slightly in the latest
figures. The smallness of the revisions
should not be taken to mean that this series,
or the underlying revaluation of book values, is firmly based. On the contrary, adjustment of the reported book value data
to a current cost basis required for national
income accounting involves quite difficult
estimation. The generally limited scale of
postwar revisions in the inventory valuation
adjustment—which is characteristic of this
series—signifies only that the final sources
of price information used in the revaluation procedure do not differ significantly
from the preliminary information on which
the estimates are based initially.
FARM INVENTORIES
The farm component of "Change in
business inventories" is measured by the
Agricultural Marketing Service as the difference between physical quantities of
crops and livestock on farms at the beginning and end of the year, multiplied by
average prices for the year. It is derived
as the sum of separate State estimates for
individual crop and livestock items. No
inventory valuation adjustment is required
since the farm inventory changes are computed directly from data on physical stocks
and current prices.
The procedure of using average prices
for the year—average State prices received
by farmers—to value the changes in physical stocks was adopted by the Agricultural
Marketing Service 3 years ago. (See the
Farm Income Situation, No. 155, October
31, 1955.) Until then, it was the practice
to value physical change in farm inventories in terms of year-end prices. In connection with the development of farm income estimates for the State personal
income series, however, it was found that
85
materially different results obtained for
some years when the inventory changes
were valued at annual average prices.
In the measurement of farm income, the
purpose of the inventory change item is to
convert sales to a production basis—to exclude sales out of inventory when inventories on farms decline, and to add income
in excess of sales when inventories on farms
increase. Clearly, valuation of inventory
change at average prices for the year yields
a measure more comparable to sales than
one based on year-end prices. Accordingly,
the former expedient of using year-end
prices as an approximation of average
prices was discarded, and the entire series
was reworked on the latter basis.
These farm inventory revisions had been
included in the national income accounts
back to 1952. The present volume, however, provided the opportunity to extend
them to 1946. For the years 1929-45, the
change in farm inventories still remains
on the year-end price basis.
The revisions in farm inventory change
just incorporated into the national income
accounts are largest for 1947 and 1948—
roughly $600 million in each year. For the
earlier period, differences between the two
series are substantial ($300 to $400 million) only in 1934, 1936, and 1937.
FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS
The actual statistical changes that have
been made in the foreign component of
GNP are inconsequential. The sizable postwar differences that appear between "Net
exports of goods and services" and the
former "Net foreign investment" item are
definitional in character. As explained in
Chapter 5, they reflect primarily the
changed treatment of Government international transfer payments. More specifically,
the Government's cash grants to foreign
countries no longer enter into the calculation of either net exports or Federal purchases of goods and services, whereas formerly such grants were, on the one hand,
included with Federal purchases and, on
the other, deducted from exports (along
with imports) in the derivation of net
foreign investment.
The new handling of international cash
grants thus involves offsetting changes in
the Federal Government and foreign segments of gross national product. The concept of net foreign investment is retained,
but the measure of it appears as an entry
in the Foreign Transactions Account rather
than as a component of GNP.
GOVERNMENT
The annual postwar estimates of Federal
Government purchases are appreciably
lower than before, because of the changed
86
DATA
SOURCES AND
PROCEDURES
treatment of international transfers. Statistical revisions of the various series on
Federal expenditures and revenues are extremely minor, and routine in nature.
A considerable amount of new work was
done on the State and local government
series, but this entailed only small changes
in the figures since the preliminary estimates were found to measure up quite well.
Revisions were made in local government receipts and expenditures for the
years 1946-51 on the basis of the Census
Bureau publication, Historical Statistics on
State and Local Government Finances,
1902-53, published in 1955. This report
coordinated and classified on a consistent
basis a large body of statistical materials on
State and local government finances for
selected years of this half-century period.
Benchmarks from this source were introduced into the present estimates for the
years 1946, 1948, and 1950. Corresponding
data for 1952 and 1953 as reported in this
source already had been incorporated
into our estimates from earlier Census
publications.
Developments in the Estimation
of National Income
Revising the estimates of national income posed a quite different—less formidable—problem from that just described for
the gross national product. This was because the two sides of the accounts differ
greatly in the character of their underlying
data sources. In essence, important components of the GNP—consumer commodities, consumer services, and producers'
durables—are dependent on periodic censuses, whereas the estimates of national income do not rest on census enumerations
to any appreciable extent.
The estimates of wages and salaries,
which account for over three-fifths of the
total national income, are constructed
mainly from information which is available annually. Important examples are the
payroll data tabulated from reports by
business for social security purposes, and
the figures reported by the Federal Government on the disbursements made to its
civilian and military personnel. While census information is utilized in estimating
wages and salaries in certain industries, its
importance to this area in general is distinctly secondary.
NEW TREASURY DATA
With respect to the next two largest components of the national income, the various
industrial and population censuses are not
used at all in the series on corporate profits,
and figure only to a minor degree in the
estimation of the income of unincorporated
nonfarm enterprises. These components
are founded almost entirely on Internal
Revenue Service tabulations of the Federal income tax returns of corporations,
individuals, and partnerships.
For corporations, tabulations have been
prepared on an annual basis in substantial
industrial detail, but in the past did not
become available until more than 2 years
after the year to which they referred. For
example, at the time the 1956 estimates
were reported in the July 1957 National
Income Number of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS, IRS profits tabulations
from corporation income tax returns extended through 1954, and it was necessary to project the comprehensive data
for that year to 1955 and 1956, and then
currently into 1957, on the basis of a variety
of source materials by industry which were
considerably less reliable.
IRS tabulations of net income and related items in the noncorporate area have
been available on an aggregate basis annually (except for the latest 2 or 3 years),
but less frequently by industry. In the past,
the industry tabulations were not regularized and usually did not cover partnerships along with proprietorships.
Two recent developments in the IRS
data directly benefited the estimates of
corporate profits and income of unincorporated nonfarm enterprises prepared for
this report. The first was the issuance of
the Business Indicators reports for 1956,
which served to advance IRS reporting for
nonmanufacturing corporations and for
sole proprietorships and partnerships fully
one year ahead of the past schedule. And
secondly, since our previous major revision in 1954 the Internal Revenue Service
has compiled and released, in addition to
Business Indicators, several other statistical
tabulations of partnership and/or proprietorship incomes in the recent period.
These additional tabulations, in conjunction with those previously available, enabled us to revise and improve the postwar
series on unincorporated nonfarm business
incomes and to base it, up through 1956
on annual IRS data.
The other components of national in
come—supplements to wages and salaries
net income of farm proprietors, net interest, and rental income of persons—are each
relatively small and are satisfactory except
in the case of the rental series. Again, the
major data sources underlying these components are annual rather than periodic.
FEATURES OF THE ESTIMATES
The foregoing brief summary has perhaps afforded a sufficient basis for making
several generalizations about the quality of
the national income estimates and the nature of the recent postwar revisions of them.
1. The national income is based for the
most part on statistical sources which yield
data annually, and which are of generally
high quality.
2. The accuracy of the national income
estimates for the current period, however,
is affected by the delay in availability of
comprehensive data on business incomes.
The new IRS Business Indicators series
takes on a particular significance for the
national income series because it puts the
reporting of such data on an accelerated
basis and reduces the period for which resort must be had to less satisfactory source
materials for extrapolation.
3. A principal requirement to improve
the national income estimates is better
profits data, covering both incorporated
and unincorporated businesses, for the current period pending the availability of information from the Internal Revenue Service. It may be added that the social security
wage data do not become available in time
for use in the preliminary estimates for the
current year—1958 at present—but that
the current monthly information, mainly
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, for
projecting the estimates of wages and salaries in the interim has proved generally
adequate.
4. Because the national income estimates
depend to a comparatively small extent on
censuses, the revisions on the income side
of the accounts were in general more
"selective" than the comprehensive statistical recasting which was given to consumer
expenditures for commodities, producers'
purchases of durable equipment, and part
of the consumer services series. However, as
we indicated above, issuance by the Internal Revenue Service of additional income
tax return tabulations permitted this kind
of a systematic reworking to be carried out
in the instance of unincorporated nonfarm
business income.
This section of the chapter describes the
revisions that were undertaken for each of
the components of national income. It also
covers capital consumption allowances,
which constitute an important item of con-
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
ceptual difference between the national income and the gross national product. Other
such items of difference—indirect business
tax and nontax liability, subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises,
and business transfer payments—are not
discussed because these series were left
generally intact.
INCOME BY INDUSTRY
Before discussion of these various components of the national income, note should
be taken of a problem concerning the estimation of its industrial distribution. The
further work we did on this problem did
not lead to a solution; it remains on the
agenda for future research.
Most components of the national income—and the bulk of the total—are distributed by industry on the basis of a
classification of establishments. Corporate
profits and interest, however, are classified
industrially in acccordance with the major
activity (revenue source) of each company
or affiliated system of companies taken as
a whole.
Comparisons of corporate property incomes with other items of national income,
while valid for all industries combined, are
therefore more or less imprecise for any
individual industry. (See the 1954 National Income supplement.) This imprecision varies from one industry to another,
depending in general on the relative importance of multi-industry companies.
Among the industries particularly affected
are the refining of petroleum and nonferrous metals and the manufacture of motor
vehicles—which include substantial profits
from economic activity that is classified
elsewhere for purposes of measuring other
types of income—and petroleum and metals extraction, where the reverse condition
exists. As can be seen, industry comparisons with respect to total income originating are also affected in such cases.
In principle, the noncomparability could
be removed either by allocating the corporate profits and interest of multi-industry
enterprises among the different establishments they own or by regrouping the other
income flows from such enterprises on a
company basis.
The latter solution would avoid difficult
problems of cost accounting that arise in
the allocation of profits among various
establishments owned by a company. In
spite of these problems, however, a national
income breakdown based on the classification of establishments is preferable in
general, because it serves better all the
varied analytical purposes which require
information about the type of productive
activity in which business units are engaged.
As a practical matter, neither of the two
solutions can be carried through the na
tional income tables without considerably
more primary data than are now available.
The information at hand is generally sufficient to indicate that the noncomparabilities in the present national income measures
are significant for certain areas of the economy; but it does not provide a basis for
quantitative adjustments to eliminate these
noncomparabilities.
A statistical source apparently holding
some promise is a series of sample tabulations by the Internal Revenue Service of
corporate tax returns showing substantial
amounts of depletion. These tabulations
provide figures on "net income subject to
depletion" attributed by the taxpayers to
depletable properties yielding specified
minerals. In principle, such figures could be
used to construct a rough series of mining
profits on an establishment basis, comparable to the payroll series. Unfortunately,
these sample tabulations are so far available
for a few years only. Moreover, the fact that
the net income allocations serve as the
basis for determining allowable percentage
depletion appears to have impaired their
usability for the purposes here envisaged.
Pending solution of this latter problem, an
extension of the tabulations to cover a
longer period of time, and the development
of materials for a corresponding adjustment in other industries where the problem
is also of considerable importance, we decided against an interim adjustment for
mining in the present volume.
A potential source of comprehensive data
in this area is the Company Statistics program of the Census Bureau. This has so far
yielded cross-tabulations of payrolls and
other items by industry of company and
industry of establishment from the 1954
Censuses of Business, Manufactures, and
Mining Industries. This program is intended to provide a bridge between bodies
of industry data classified on the two alternative bases. The Census data, however,
cannot as yet be satisfactorily tied in with
the tax return materials which are the basic
source of profits data. Because companies
may report to the IRS on a more (or less)
consolidated basis than to the Census Bureau, a substantial number of them may be
included in one industry in the tax return
tabulations while the Census Bureau's company statistics include them in a different
industry.
Again, errors might occur in an establishment allocation of company profits
based on the particular items the Census
Bureau has cross-classified. The closest approximation to profits the latter yield is the
difference between payrolls and total value
added. This difference is much grosser than
profits, and it rests in the end on a valuation of shipments which, for intracompany
transactions, may not be tied closely enough
to market prices to provide a realistic basis
for an establishment allocation of profits.
Finally, the Census experience of 1954 is
87
not easily generalizable to apply to other
years in the estimation of such a volatile
item as profits.
COMPENSATION OF
EMPLOYEES
The postwar revisions of wages and salaries are quite minor in the aggregate. This
result reflects the generally high quality of
the underlying basic data for this large
component of the national income, although for a few industries the payroll estimates remain statistically weak.
While the new work on wages and salaries undertaken for this report has not in
general affected the estimates significantly,
it has served to refine them in a number of
places. The improvements which have
been introduced are described below separately for the important segment of payrolls estimated from social security data
and for "noncovered" industries.
The estimates of supplements to wages
and salaries have not been altered for
years through 1954; for the subsequent
period, they have been revised to incorporate the Internal Revenue Service tabulation of corporations' contributions to private pension funds for 1955—which was
issued this past spring—and various other
pieces of data now available for 1956 and
1957. This lack of back-year revisions reflects chiefly an absence of additional basic
data; it should not be taken to mean that
the statistical basis of this component is
fully satisfactory. While the supplements
series is a generally adequate one, there are
several ways in which it can, and should,
be strengthened.
ff
Covered" Industries
For this report, a somewhat different
method was devised for estimating the total
of wages and salaries paid out in industries covered by the Social Security Act.
This method, which was adopted for the
period beginning with 1951, can best be
described after reviewing the original procedure. This review will also give a background for the second type of revision made
in the "covered" payroll series, namely, the
preparation for recent years of new payroll estimates for "small" firms not covered by the State unemployment insurance
laws.
CHARACTERISTICS OF DATA
Through 1950, the old-age and survivors
insurance (OASI) program and the State
unemployment insurance (UI) programs
covered the same universe of industries,
88
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
ranging over virtually the whole of commercial and industrial employment. The
area of the economy thus embraced by the
Social Security Act accounted for about
three-fourths of total wages and salaries
and close to nine-tenths of private-industry
wages and salaries.
The payroll statistics furnished by
neither the OASI nor UI programs were
complete. Only taxable wages were available from OASI, since employers were not
required to report the amounts earned by
employees over the $3,000 taxable wage
base. Under the UI programs, both taxable
and total payrolls were reported by the
establishments covered, but most of these
programs exempted firms with few employees (ranging in that period from 1 to 7,
according to the individual State laws),
as well as firms in business intermittently
or for short periods.
A "control" total for the social security
universe—to which independently derived
industry estimates were adjusted—was prepared for the period through 1950 by adding together the following three parts:
1. Taxable payrolls reported under the
OASI program—that is, the taxable payrolls of all firms under social security coverage, accounting for about four-fifths of the
total payrolls of these firms.
2. Nontaxable payrolls reported under
UI, derived by simply subtracting taxable
payrolls from total payrolls as reported by
employers covered by the State laws.
3. An estimate, based on social security
data, of the nontaxable payrolls of "small"
firms—those small enough to be excluded
from UI coverage by the varying size-offirm coverage provisions of the State laws.
This portion of "covered" wages and salaries not reported under either social security program amounted to less than 1
percent; virtually the entire total was based
on employer-reported data summarized in
the tabulations noted under (1) and (2)
above.
The method used to derive a total of
"covered" wages and salaries was not followed for the separate industries since the
OASI taxable-wage data by industry had
been compiled only from small samples and
were not available for the whole period on
an establishment (as distinct from company) basis. Instead, industry series were
built up from the following components
involving a different, though also integrated, use of the social security data:
1. Total payrolls reported under the UI
programs. These data, which accounted in
the aggregate for almost 95 percent of total
covered wages and salaries in the pre-1951
period, are classified by industry on an
establishment basis.
2. The estimated total payroll of small
firms covered by OASI but not UI. This
estimate was based on OASI special tabulations, usually in connection with the report on County Business Patterns, showing
the taxable payroll for the first quarter of
1956 data—prepared in connection with
the given year, classified by State and in- County Business Patterns—are new; they
dustry, for firms of a size excluded from represent a significant addition to the basic
UI coverage. Since virtually all of the first- information available for estimating "covquarter payroll in such small firms could be ered" payrolls, particularly since it had
assumed to be taxable, the addition of UI been necessary to hold constant the relatotal payrolls and OASI small-firm taxable tionships indicated by the prior small-firm
payrolls gave a very close approximation to study for 1951.
total payrolls in each industry in the first
The tabulations furnished by the Buquarter of the year. The ratio of this total reau of Old-Age and Survivors Insurance
to the UI component—a "small-firm rais- for 1956 showed employment as of miding ratio"—was applied to the annual total March by State and industry in a 2-way
of UI payrolls in each industry to adjust it classification by size of establishment (0-3
to include the pay in small firms.
and 4-7 employees) that approximated the
3. An unexplained discrepancy. In all required definitions very closely. While
years, the sum of the industry estimates de- direct payroll data of course would have
rived from (1) and (2) above fell short of been preferable, these employment figures
the overall controlling total. The amount have proved quite helpful. This was espewas always relatively small but varied from cially true because the average pay of
year to year, being $0.8 billion in 1947, for small-firm employees could be estimated
example, and $0.2 billion in 1950. Adjust- apparently without substantial error, by
ment of the industry estimates to the total reason of the fact that for most industries
was accomplished by allocating the amount on a national basis the ratio of such averof the discrepancy among them in propor- age pay to that for employees in all estabtion to the OASI small-firm payrolls.
lishments had shown essential stability for
Beginning with 1951, a problem was en- the period through 1951.
countered in constructing the control-total
With regard to the introduction of the
of social security payrolls by the method overall upward adjustment noted above,
outlined above. Taxable earnings under the the need for such an adjustment was inOASI program (which were raised to dicated by the fact that the sum of the
$3,600 and are now $4,200) no longer co- industry estimates had fallen short of the
incided with those under the UI laws controlling total in the past. In other
($3,000), and coverage of OASI was ex- words, we felt that the UI data adjusted
panded to include some groups not cov- to cover small firms would probably conered under the UI programs. For a number tinue to understate slightly the actual
of years, however, the Bureau of Old-Age amounts of "covered" wages and salaries.
and Survivors Insurance furnished a speIn this connection, it was observed that
cial estimate of what the OASI taxable for the few years for which such a compariwage total would have been in terms of son could be made the amount of payroll
the 1950 coverage provisions—thus per- estimated by OASI to be missing from
mitting an extension of the basic pro- County Business Patterns because of decedure.
linquency in reporting closely approxiThis estimate was subject to appreciable mated the unexplained discrepancy besampling variability and, moreover, be- tween the sum of our industry estimates
came more difficult as the period of years and the controlling total. An oversimplified
beyond 1950 lengthened. It was therefore view of this correspondence would be that
decided, in connection with this report, to all of the payroll omitted from County
attempt to develop a different method of Business Patterns because of delinquent rehandling the control-total aspect of cov- porting referred to small firms, and thus
was excluded also from the small-firm tabered wages and salaries.
ulations used in the national income estimates. Undoubtedly, however, some of this
delinquent reporting was in large firms. To
REVISED METHOD
illustrate with hypothetical breakdowns,
The method which has been adopted is the amount of delinquent reporting in
a variant of the former approach in build- County Business Patterns for the first quaring up the individual industry estimates. ter of 1947, $0.8 billion at an annual rate,
For all years since 1951, UI total payrolls may have represented $0.6 billion in small
for each industry have been raised to cover firms and $0.2 billion in the larger firms;
small firms in accordance with the regular and our $0.8 billion "unexplained discrepmethod; and an overall upward adjust- ancy" for 1947 may have reflected an
ment of these results has then been intro- undercoverage of $0.6 billion in the OASIduced to take the place of what was for- based estimates for small firms and $0.2
merly the "unexplained discrepancy."
billion in the UI figures, with the latter
The small-firm ratios for this period understatement resulting from the provihave been based on OASI tabulations for sions in many State laws that firms are
the first quarters of 1951 and 1956, with not subject to UI coverage until they have
straight-line interpolation for the inter- been in the requisite size class for a certain
vening years. It may be noted that the number of weeks, usually 20.
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
In any case, the close agreement between delinquent reporting in County Business Patterns and the "unexplained discrepancy" in the years for which both
figures were available led us to use the
former item for 1951 and 1956 to take the
place of what was conceptually the "unexplained discrepancy." For intervening
years the all-industry total of this item was
interpolated by small-firm payrolls. The
resulting figures were distributed among
industries in proportion to estimated smallfirm payroll.
For each year since 1947 the amount of
wages and salaries added to the sum of the
initially computed industry estimates—
under the label of either an "unexplained
discrepancy" or delinquent reporting in
County Business Patterns—has been less
than a billion dollars.
"Noncovered" Industries
In the "covered" area of wages and salaries, revision of the method of estimating
the controlling total and the receipt of
small-firm tabulations for 1956 took care
of the more significant problems. For "noncovered" payrolls, a review of existing
methodology led to improvements in the
estimates for a number of industries, all
of them among the statistically weaker
series.
by the BLS consumer price index for domestic service. The revisions for this payroll series extend back to 1948 and are appreciable for the more recent period, for
which the new figures are less than the former ones by about $I/2 billion, or approximately one-sixth.
HOSPITALS
Pay in kind has been a weak element of
the series on wages and salaries paid out by
hospitals. Formerly, pay in kind was extrapolated from a 1935 Census of Hospitals
benchmark on the basis of estimated employment multiplied by a weighted combination of the food and rent components
of the consumer price index. To improve
this procedure, we turned to the American
Hospital Association's "Salary Survey,"
which contains much information on pay in
kind by type of hospital, type of personnel,
and type of perquisite (food, lodging, and
laundry). The 1946 and 1956 surveys were
used to construct new pay-in-kind benchmarks, and each type of pay in kind was
interpolated for the intervening years by
the product of employment and the relevant price index (food, rent, and laundry,
respectively). The incorporation of these
AHA data was the major factor in reducing
the overall estimates of hospital wages and
salaries—by almost $400 million, or 15 percent, by 1956.
HIGHER EDUCATION
PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS
Our former method of estimating the
total pay of domestic servants was to multiply Census employment (from the Current
Population Survey) by an average earnings
series benchmarked on the Census of Poplation and extrapolated by the BLS price
index for domestic service.
Beginning with the year 1954, the Census
Bureau made available unpublished data
on hours worked corresponding to the employment figures. Estimates of total manhours computed from these data when
divided into the previous payroll series
yielded an average hourly pay which appeared high. From the files of the Bureau
of Labor Statistics, however, we tabulated
information on the prevailing wages per
8-hour day paid to domestic workers in
over 50 scattered cities during the months
of 1952 and 1953 (as reported by employment agencies in those cities)—which information implied an average hourly rate
of pay that was lower and seemed reasonable.
The new estimates of wages and salaries
in private households have thus been prepared by multiplying total man-hours by
average hourly earnings, with benchmarks
for the latter interpolated and extrapolated
The U. S. Office of Education published
for the school year 1953-54 total payrolls in
schools comprising the great bulk of all
private institutions of higher education. It
also published for the same schools the ratio
of aggregate payrolls to aggregate educational, general, and auxiliary expense. This
ratio was applied to the comparable expense total in all private higher education
to obtain a benchmark for total payrolls.
The new series is about 5 percent lower
than the superseded one for the more recent period.
Such comprehensive data relating to
payrolls in private higher education had
not heretofore been published by the Office
of Education. The series are to be continued in the regular Biennial Surveys of
that Office.
NONPROFIT ORGANIZATIONS
Part of the expansion of the OASI program in 1951 consisted of making eligible
for coverage on an elective basis the various types of nonprofit organizations exempt
from Federal income tax under Section 101
(6) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1939.
These religious, charitable, scientific, literary, educational, and similar organizations
89
are exempt from UI coverage and formerly
were exempt from OASI coverage. Only
limited information has been available on
the wages paid in such organizations.
In connection with the 1951 and 1953
editions of County Business Patterns, the
Bureau of Old-Age and Survivors Insurance collected and reported separately (in
"OASI Coverage Statistics, First Quarter,
1953") the payroll in those organizations
which had elected to be covered by OASI.
In the opinion of a representative of that
Bureau, the bulk of the organizations eligible had elected to be covered by 1953.
We did not use the OASI data for hospitals, schools, and colleges since more comprehensive information for these types of
organizations, including implicitly the Section 101 portion, was available from other
sources.
For all other organizations represented,
the amounts reported by OASI for 1953
were used to derive benchmarks for this
category of payrolls in the industries concerned. Since these amounts were necessarily minimums, we raised them by 10
percent for each industry except religious
organizations, where a 25-percent raising
factor was applied on the assumption of
a relatively smaller coverage on an elective
basis.
In total, approximately $1 billion of payrolls is included in the 1953 estimates on
the basis of these OASI data. This amount
is not a net addition to the wage and salary
totals since in various industries the figures
based on OASI data were used as benchmarks to replace weaker estimates. However, in some industries and parts of industries, most significant of which was "civic,
social, and fraternal organizations," the
new data provided estimates for categories
of payrolls not previously included in the
national income.
INCOME OF UNINCORPORATED
ENTERPRISES
The estimates of income of unincorporated nonfarm business establishments
have been revised back to 1948. This latest
of several periodic reviews of source materials and procedures in this difficult area
can be said to have improved the statistical basis of the series quite significantly.
Estimation in this field has generally required the laborious piecing together and
adjustment of various types of data from
numerous sources, some only inferentially
connected with noncorporate business income. While such difficulties remain a
characteristic of the work, the enterpreneurial income series now, for the first time,
is founded for an appreciable span of years
on a comprehensive and uniform body of
90
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
statistical data. Reference is had to taxreturn tabulations by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) of the incomes of sole
proprietorships and partnerships covering
the period from 1945 through 1956.
This basic information is fully incorporated into the estimates contained in this
volume. IRS tabulations for 1945 and 1947,
the first comprehensive data on the incomes of unincorporated nonfarm enterprises, had previously been utilized, along
with certain other tabulations of this type
which were available for a few succeeding
years. For the present report, the post-1947
series was thoroughly revised in light of the
substantial volume of additional tax-return
information compiled and issued by the
Internal Revenue Service in the past several years. A variety of other source materials also went into the calculations, but
the new IRS reports were of overriding
importance.
The revised estimates of the income of
unincorporated business and professional
enterprises differ appreciably from the former series. In the main, the revision is a
statistical one, with the IRS and other data
indicating a higher level, particularly for
recent years, than had been estimated from
the incomplete and less direct materials at
hand. Part of the revision, however, stems
from an extension of the scope of the estimates. A careful reexamination of the
coverage provided by our estimates of the
various types of noncorporate forms of
organization indicated the advisability of
attempting to fill certain gaps which had
previously been neglected because of the
crudity of available basic data and the presumably small amounts involved. Examples
of such omissions which have been remedied at least roughly are afforded by mutual
nonlife insurance companies and enterprises owned by fiduciaries. For these, as
well as for miscellaneous other types of noncorporate organizations not covered in the
past, the estimated annual net income for
the recent period amounts to about $^4
billion.
In the work on nonfarm entrepreneurial
income just completed, separate estimates
were made for approximately 65 industries
listed in table 1-10, which shows the industrial origin of national income. Because
of the general inadequacy of the entrepreneurial series on a "2-digit" industry basis,
the series is not published in such detail but
only, as in table VI-4, for broad industry
divisions. Revisions were quite sizable, however, even for some of these broader categories, and serve to point up the extreme
difficulty of estimating entrepreneurial income well, particularly on an industry
basis.
The significant improvement in the new
estimates noted above is relative only.
There are still a number of ways in which
the nonfarm entrepreneurial income series
can be made more reliable. Probably the
most essential need in this regard, as recorded in the final section of this chapter,
is for periodic, comprehensive audit studies
by the Internal Revenue Service along the
lines of the one for 1949 already embodied
in the figures.
INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE DATA
Two sets of IRS data, both derived from
samples, were utilized for preparing annual
estimates of the income of unincorporated
business and professional enterprises for the
period beginning with 1948. One consisted
of periodic tabulations by industry of the
net income, sales, and related items reported by (a) individuals (sole proprietorships) on the business schedule of their
Federal income tax returns, and (b) partnerships on their mandatory informational
returns to the Government. Tabulations for
sole proprietorships were available for 1949,
1951, 1953, 1954 (in a limited industry
breakdown), 1955, and 1956; partnership
data were reported for 1953 and 1956.
The other series of IRS information,
which was available annually for 1948-55
without an industry breakdown, showed
the total net income from (a) individually
owned businesses, and (b) partnerships as
reported by individuals on the "face" of
their Federal income tax returns. With specific reference to the individual income tax
return (form 1040) for 1955 and other
recent years, item (a) was a combination
of lines 8 and 9 on page 1—"Profit (or loss)
from business" and "Profit (or loss) from
farming"; and item (b) represented "Income from partnerships" as tabulated from
page 3, schedule H (line 1). Of further
note, item (a) consisted of amounts transferred by individuals from schedules C and
F of the form 1040 return; item (b), which
was part of line 10 on the "face" (page 1)
of the return but not shown separately
there, represented a reporting by individuals of the amounts distributed to them
by partnerships, whereas the partnership
figures included in the industry tabulations
were taken, as already noted, from the returns of the partnerships themselves.
SUMMARY OF METHOD
The tabulations from the Internal Revenue Service outlined above became the
principal basis for an estimating procedure
for the period 1948-55 which may be said
to have consisted in essence of the following steps:
1. Filling in, through estimation, the
gaps in IRS industry data—that is, estimating by individual industry groups the
total net income of sole proprietorships and
partnerships for 1948, 1950, and 1952 and
of partnerships alone for 1949, 1951, 1954,
and 1955.
2. Adjusting (proportionately) the re
sultant 1948-55 industry figures, year b)
year, to a controlling total developed primarily from the IRS "face-of-return" information.
3. Adjusting for incompleteness, or undercoverage, in the IRS universe, as measured against census information on sales
or number of proprietors.
4. Allowing for differences in industrial
classification between the IRS tabulations
and the system followed in the national
income.
5. Raising the figures to correct for the
understatement of net income reported on
tax returns—largely on the basis of a special IRS audit study made some time ago
for the year 1949.
6. Adding in the estimated business incomes of certain types of proprietors or
noncorporate entities not covered, for one
reason or another, in the IRS sole proprietorship and partnership tabulations.
The main new feature of this methodology was step 2—the development of annual
"control" totals so as to eliminate from aggregate unincorporated nonfarm business
income the errors arising from the necessary use of estimation by industry because
IRS data were not available at all for some
years and only in part for others. With the
incorporation of such controlling totals,
the income of unincorporated business and
professional enterprises included in the
national income accounts represents essentially the annual totals tabulated from
individuals' Federal income tax returns, adjusted upward to allow for understatement
of reported net income and for the estimated amounts of income not covered altogether by these returns.
The various adjustments made to IRS
data may take on a more precise meaning
from the additional notes on methodology
given below. It is first to be noted, however,
that the actual procedure of estimation
varied somewhat from the 6-step method
which has been summarized. The latter, it
is believed, sets forth the essence of the
matter more clearly than would an outline
of the actual way in which the estimates
were prepared. Because of statistical convenience, and mostly to avoid unnecessary
computations, the procedures which were
used differed as follows from those outlined
above:
1. The industry information for sole proprietorships and partnerships reported by
the Internal Revenue Service was adjusted
for undercoverage (step 3), differences in
industrial classification (step 4), and understatement of reported net income (step
5) before estimation was employed to extend the industry estimates to all years of
the period.
2. Adjustment to the controlling total
came next. However, the total was of course
adjusted for this purpose to include the
amounts by which the industry figures had
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
been increased by the estimation involved
in steps 3 and 5. It is recognized that this
adjustment caused the control-total to lose
in part its statistical independence of the
industry estimates, but it should be added
that the actual results differed not at all
in the aggregate and inconsequentially by
industry from those which would have obtained if the 6-step method summarized
above had been followed literally.
3. The final step was the same as in (6)
above—allowing for incomes of proprietors
outside the scope of IRS coverage.
the major professions conducted by the
Office of Business Economics. The latest
such survey, covering the legal profession
for the years 1947-54, was utilized in this
report.
Estimates of postwar professional incomes obtained by this approach have generally been moderately higher than those
based on IRS data adjusted for audit.
While the difference involved, around $5/2
9i
Apart from the audit and undercoverage
adjustments, noted above, that were introduced into the control totals to make them
conform with the industry estimates, an
annual series of these totals was derived
by adjusting as follows the IRS face-ofreturn amount of business and professional
income reported on individual income tax
returns:
1. The estimated amount of net farm
Fig. 35
PREPARATION OF INDUSTRY SERIES
It has been noted that the reported IRS
net income data for individual nonfarm
industries required adjustment for any incompleteness of coverage and for differences in industrial classification. Important
new source materials for making both types
of adjustment were provided by the 1954
censuses of business—covering retail trade,
wholesale trade, and the services—manufactures and mining.
Procedures for incorporating the 1954
Census information, for raising the estimates for understatement in reporting on
the original tax returns, and for making
interpolations to derive the initial estimates
of business and professional incomes by
industry for years not covered by the IRS
data were, in general, similar to the methodology for 1947-49 described in the 1954
National Income supplement.
Allowance for understatement in the
IRS tax-return data was a particularly
important step in procedure. The chief
basis for making it was an IRS intensive
audit for 1949, based on a representative
sample, giving primary emphasis to business income reported by individuals. The
study was carried on by experienced field
investigators through direct contact with
taxpayers and examination of their records.
This IRS audit permitted an adjustment
to be made, by industry, of the net income
reported for tax purposes by individual
proprietors. For lack of data, the same relative adjustment was applied to the income reported by partnerships, although
collateral audit information indicated that,
insofar as size-of-firm differences alone
were determining, a lesser adjustment
might have been in order. More important,
it was necessary to use the 1949 audit allowance for an industry for all years of the
series (from 1929 to 1957).
Another type of audit adjustment, as it
were, is included in the estimates of the
income of professional practitioners.
These estimates have been derived for
the most part by multiplying the number
of professional persons in independent
practice by average net income figures denved from mail questionnaire surveys of
466759 0—59
7
Distribution of National Income, 1957
Total $364 Billion
Net Interest 3.5 %
Rental Income 3.3 %
billion a year recently, may reflect statistical errors at least in part, it has been
retained in the estimates and viewed as a
kind of audit adjustment.
OTHER PHASES OF PROCEDURE
The development of control-totals formalized into a regular procedure the previous use of the face-of-return information
as a check on the "sum-of-industry" estimates. (See the 1954 Supplement, pp.
82-83.)
income included in the face-of-return total
was subtracted. This figure was available
from the IRS industry tabulations for the
years noted above, and was obtained for
other years by interpolation on the basis
of the Agriculture Department's annual
series on net income of farm operators (exclusive of noncash items of income).
2. Allowance was made for differences
in definition between net income reported
on tax returns and included in the national
income accounts. Under this heading came
the adding back of deductions that had
been taken for depletion allowances and
the subtraction of several items (such as
92
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
dividends and interest received by partnerships and earnings of insurance solicitors)
that are counted in other components of
the national income. All together, these
allowances for definitional differences,
based mostly on IRS tabulated data for
selected years, entailed a lowering of the
reported face-of-return total by $300-400
million a year in the postwar period.
The controlling totals derived in this
manner were then subjected to a statistical
check. This involved IRS data on sole
proprietorship income, which accounts for
two-thirds of the business and professional
universe. The total of such income reported
in the IRS industry tabulations (for 1947,
1949, 1951, and 1953-55) was compared
with that derived from the face-of-return
information (reported total adjusted to
exclude farm income). Very good agreement was found except for 1954 and 1955,
when the two series showed a considerable
divergence.
No explanation of this was found. Statistically, the face-of-return figures are regarded as probably somewhat superior to
the industry tabulations, but one cannot
be sure and the latter data seemed more
reasonable in this particular instance.
Given this uncertainty, the controlling
totals developed from the face-of-return
information were adjusted downward for
1954 and 1955, by averaging the two sets
of IRS data for sole proprietorships. The
effect of this adjustment on the final estimates of noncorporate business income was
about $54 billion in each of the 2 years.
The control-totals that were obtained by
adjusting the face-of-return figures for
farm income, definitional differences, and
the statistical divergence just noted accounted for three-fourths of the final estimates of unincorporated nonfarm enterprise income. The audit allowances
formed another 15 percent. Part of the
remainder represented estimated incompleteness of IRS coverage in various industries, but the bulk of it consisted of the
incomes of special groups not typically reporting their business incomes on individual income tax returns.
Included here were the income of ownaccount workers in contract construction
(such as carpenters and painters) operating from their own homes (see the 1954
Supplement, p. 80), patronage refunds
and stock dividends paid by farmers cooperatives, incomes from businesses owned
by fiduciaries, and the net profit of mutual
nonlife insurance companies. These and
other such items total around $2 billion a
year and, on the whole, have an unsatisfactory statistical basis.
ESTIMATES FOR 1956 AND 1957
For the year 1956, for which face-ofreturn totals were not yet available from
the Internal Revenue Service, the estimates of business and professional incomes were based on an extrapolation
from 1955 by industry figures constructed
primarily from IRS tabulations. It is to be
noted that the IRS data that were used for
1956—covering both sole proprietorships
and partnerships—were the product of the
accelerated tabulation program embodied
in the Business Indicator series. The availability of 1956 industry tabulations in time
for the preparation of the detailed national
income statistics for 1957 represents a
marked improvement over the earlier 2year time lag which had characterized IRS
reporting in this area.
For 1957, pending the availability of taxreturn tabulations by industry, the estimates were based on movements from 1956
indicated by such data as retail sales, construction activity, wages and salaries, and
corporation profits. To obtain the benefit
of appropriate weighting, the extrapolations were carried out in as much industry
detail as possible.
It is to be emphasized, however, that
the data underlying these current extrapolations were, for the most part, fragmentary and only indirectly relevant. For this
reason, the changes in nonfarm proprietors'
income shown for the period beyond the
latest reporting of IRS data are subject
to possibly substantial error.
Farm Income
The Agricultural Marketing Service of
the Department of Agriculture furnished
for this report a new set of figures on the
net income of farm proprietors for the
years 1946-57. Most other farm items that
enter the national income and product
accounts were also modified.
For the early postwar years, these revised
estimates of farm proprietors' income are
appreciably higher than the figures they
replaced in our tables. The annual differences in the period 1946-48 vary from
about $1 billion to $1^2 billion, or from 6
to 9 per cent. The corresponding changes
are less for the years 1949-51, and become
quite small in the subsequent period.
The above differences for the years
1946-51 mainly reflect the AMS revision
made 3 years ago, which we had not had
the opportunity to incorporate into our
tables. This revision, which was presented
and described in the October 1955 Farm
Income Situation, centered primarily in
depreciation charges and inventories. The
main points involved are covered in this
chapter by the separate notes provided on
these items.
The current revision of the AMS farm
income and expenditure estimates—pre-
sented in the July 1958 Farm Income Situation—has had the effect of raising nei
income slightly for the years 1946-52, anc
of changing it very little thereafter, in comparison with the series established in 1955.
In this most recent effort, complete adjustments were made to the 1954 Census
of Agriculture and several other changes
in data and procedures were introduced.
Our tables thus incorporate the latest
AMS estimates of farm proprietors' income
and related items for the years since 1946.
This is not true for the period 1929-45, for
which revised AMS series were also prepared in 1955, a year following our own
revisions of the national income and product estimates back to 1929. However, the
differences between the 1929-45 farm
income figures carried in our tables and
the ones which superseded them in the
1955 AMS report are generally small. The
latter, revised series is shown in table
VII-12 of the Statistical Section.
Attention may be called to the program
of farm income reporting developed by the
Office of Business Economics and the Agricultural Marketing Service in early 1956,
with the cooperation of the Office of Statistical Standards of the Bureau of the
Budget. The essential feature of this program is an agreement on the part of OBE
and AMS to carry in their reports the same
figures on farm income, both quarterly and
annual. In the past, differences in publication schedules and in the timing of revisions
had prevented a synchronization of farm
income data in the publications of the two
agencies. The new arrangement—now in
its third year—is a benefit to the many
individuals who make joint use of the OBE
and AMS income reports.
OTHER
COMPONENTS
Included under this heading are descriptions of the new statistical work which has
been done in four remaining areas on the
"income side" of the national income and
product account: Rental income of persons, corporate profits, interest, and capital
consumption allowances.
The statistical revisions in these four sets
of measures were of a selective character.
As we have indicated earlier, the more
basic, "top-to-bottom" kind of statistical
reworking such as was done for the estimates of consumer commodities, producers'
durables, and business and professional income was not involved.
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
Rental Income of Persons
The postwar revisions of rental income
of persons incorporate a somewhat simplified estimating procedure and a variety of
new source materials. Their effect was to
lift the net rent series a few hundred million dollars in most years; the largest revision (that for 1956) amounted to $0.6
billion, or 6 percent. At the same time, beginning with 1951 estimated consumer expenditures for rental of tenant-occupied
dwellings were revised upward, and spacerental values imputed to owner-occupied
dwellings revised downward, by amounts
ranging up to $0.8 billion annually.
Rental income of persons is estimated as
the sum of three components. The largest
of these consists of the returns (net rents
and royalties) from rented nonfarm property. Approaching it in magnitude is the
imputed net return from owner-occupied
nonfarm dwellings. The third component
is net rent from farm realty; this is
measured by use of data from the Department of Agriculture, and is revised in the
present report only to incorporate routine
minor revisions in these data. The discussion below is confined to the nonfarm cash
and imputed components.
RENTED NONFARM PROPERTY
The estimates of the former—persons'
net rental income from nonfarm property—had been derived through a rather
intricate procedure described on pages 8691 of the 1954 National Income supplement. This procedure included a detailed
structural analysis of gross rent flows and
expenses—a framework which facilitated
the consistent use and interpretation of all
available data on rents. The net rent
measure, however, emerged as the last in
a series of residuals obtained by differencing
relatively larger items, so that its margin
of error was substantial despite the
thoroughness with which the data were
exploited.
An alternative measure, based on the
totals of net rents and royalties reported by
individuals and fiduciaries for income tax
purposes, has been maintained from year
to year as a check. This series is also subject
to a variety of weaknesses. Inclusion of an
uncertain amount of farm rent, gaps in the
data for fiduciaries, incompleteness of coverage, and a response bias offset entirely
or in part by taxpayers' neglecting in some
cases to charge interest and tax costs
specifically to the rental properties they
hold—these are some of the major sources
of error in the measure based on tax returns. Adjustments, necessarily rough, are
made for the first two only.
These alternative rent series moved together prior to World War II (allowing
roughly for changes in the coverage of the
tax data), but diverged after 1941, when
an apparent sharp downward bias began
to appear in the tax return measure. Since
1947, however, the latter again has been
consistent in movement with the more
elaborately based series and has been substituted for it in the basic procedure. However, an abbreviation of the old method is
still used to obtain an extrapolator for the
two most recent years, for which the tax
data are not yet available.
OWNER-OCCUPIED NONFARM DWELLINGS
The estimates of imputed net rent from
owner-occupied dwellings—and of the
space-rent or rental value of nonfarm
housing—have also been revised, to incorporate new source materials. The framework of estimation described in the 1954
Supplement has been retained.
One of the most important of the new
data sources was the Census Bureau's 1956
National Housing Inventory. This was used
in the preparation of estimates of the total
number of dwellings, and to revise the
allocation of the total between owneroccupied and rental housing. It also provided new information on the course since
1950 of rental rates and of facility and
utility costs.
Data from a number of other surveys by
the Census Bureau also made possible an
improvement in the postwar rent estimates. The regular samplings of households
and families (Series P-20) and of dwelling
vacancies and occupancies (Series H - l l l )
were used in interpolating and extrapolating the number and distribution of dwelling
units. The 1954 survey of "fixup" expenditures provided a new benchmark on home
owners5 repair and maintenance costs.
Advance releases of the 1957 Census of
Governments, dealing with real estate assessments, furnished a basis for revising the
tenure distribution of taxes and of value of
nonfarm dwellings.
Among new materials from other
sources, several were supplied by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. A special tabulation of changes in the rental rates on
one-family homes included in the Bureau's
sample underlying the rent component of
the Consumer Price Index was used to
adjust the trend of mean imputed rental
values. An index of insurance costs from
the same source was applied in determining
the course of landlords' expenses for fire insurance, which are deducted in estimating
home owners' net rental income. Another
such deduction, for depreciation, was revised to reflect in the depreciation base the
new and higher BLS estimates of the value
added by additions and alteration.
Despite the revisions which have been
outlined, the rent estimates continue to be
among the least satisfactory components of
93
the national income statistics. This condition is largely ,a reflection of the heterogeneity, poor statistical quality, and serious
gaps which characterize the basic data at
many points.
Corporate Profits
Revisions in corporate profits were moderate in the earlier postwar years, averaging around three-quarters of a billion
dollars for the before-tax series in the
period 1950-54. For the years 1955-57,
they ranged up to $2^2 billion, or 6
percent.
Several factors contributed to the 194854 revisions. The data base previously used
in evaluating the effects of IRS audit on
the underlying income tax statistics was
discontinued, and was replaced by a new
one which tended to raise the estimates.
The inclusion for the first time of an allowance for the operating profits of speculative
builders classified by IRS as gain from
sales of property had a similar effect.
Working generally in the opposite direction, but of small influence dollarwise, was
the introduction of a better method of
treating the profits earned by foreign
branches of United States corporations.
All three changes represented improvements in the processing of data according
to the basic methodology of corporate
profits estimation.
For the post-1954 period, the effect of
these was augmented by the incorporation
of Statistics of Income profits data for 1955
at a level more than $1 billion higher than
had been indicated by the extrapolators
used in the interim. Also incorporated in
the present series are the new Business Indicators reports, preliminary sample tabulations from 1956 tax returns made by the
Internal Revenue Service on an accelerated schedule. Availability of this new data
source annually is expected to improve considerably the reliability of the currentperiod estimates for nonmanufacturing
industries, to which it is confined. Only
for the terminal year and for the current
quarterly estimates is it now necessary to
rely on the heterogeneous data described
for these industries on pages 95—96 of the
1954 Supplement. It should be noted, however, that the Business Indicators for 1956
did not require a significant change in the
overall movement previously shown by the
profits estimates; the 1955-57 change in
the new estimates is substantially the same
as that shown earlier.
ALLOWANCE FOR AUDIT
The revisions made in the allowance
for profits disclosed by audit reflected the
adoption of a new method. This was
94
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
required by data developments, and is
believed to provide a more adequate view
of the facts.
The old procedure involved inferring
the ultimate amount of audit for a given
year from the incomplete results reported
up to the time of estimate. The inferences
were based on time patterns constructed
from IRS cross-tabulations of audit results
by year when obtained and by year in
which tax liability had accrued. Since the
audit data were in terms of additional tax
liability rather than of additional taxable
income found, special problems were encountered also in the treatment of corporations reporting no net income. Finally,
as bases of universe estimates, the data did
not provide an adequate coverage of small
corporations.
Beginning with 1952, the tax-year detail
of additional tax assessments was replaced
by tabulations by asset-size class, which
provide extensive coverage for the larger
corporations. Also, a special IRS study for
1949 served to indicate the extent of the
additional profits and tax liability applicable to the smaller size group, including
deficit corporations. The two sets of
source data were used in combination to
derive a comprehensive estimate of the general level of audit profits for the early 1950s.
Year-to-year variations around this level
for the postwar period were based primarily on the movements of total compiled
deductions and of Federal tax liability
(prior to audit).
OTHER CHANGES
With respect to the introduction of a
special allowance for the profits of operative
or speculative builders, IRS data for these
concerns are reported in such a way that
the bulk of their income appears as "gains
from sale of property other than capital
assets." Income so reported by the IRS had
been excluded from the national income
measure of corporate profits, being interpreted ,as essentially a capital gain. The case
of operative builders is now recognized as
an exception, and their profits are calculated without deducting this item.
Improvements in the international elements of the profits flow have been made by
use of IRS tabulations of information filed
in support of claims for tax credits for foreign income taxes paid. In particular, the
industry distribution of corporate profits
has been strengthened by the revised allocation of foreign branch profits. Formerly,
the amounts of such profits included in the
IRS industry data were unknown, and the
estimates made of them were tenuous. With
the tabulations referred to above, it has
been possible to remove approximately the
actual amounts of branch profits and, with
adjustments to balance of payments concepts and timing, to assign them to the
"rest of the world" industry.
The estimates of corporate profits tax
liability, after-tax profits, net dividend
payments, and retained net income, as
well as of profits before tax, have been
revised in' the present volume. The revisions in tax liability and in dividends
have been relatively small. Of these two
series, the former has been estimated for
the most recent years in the light of reported tax collections as well as beforetax profits, and was not involved in the
revision noted above for operative builders.
The dividend series was scarcely affected
by the 1946-54 revisions outlined above,
and errors in extrapolating it have generally been small. The revisions which have
been made in before-tax profits, therefore,
have tended to spill over directly into aftertax profits and thence into undistributed
net income.
Net Interest
The estimates of net interest included
in this report for the period beginning with
1948 are uniformly lower by 5 to 7 percent
than those previously published. The revisions of personal interest income, which
includes public debt interest, have been
somewhat smaller.
These changes were made to take advantage of newly available data. Bench-
Fig. 36
Corporate Profits by Industry Groups
Billion Dollars (ratio scale)
100
80
Total
60
40
20
10
Ii i i I ii i I i i t 1 i i i I i i i 1 ii i 1 i i i 1 i i i 1 i i iI i i i 1i i i 1 i ii 1 i i i 1I I I
Durable-Goods Manufacturing
20
10
8
\
Nondurable-Goods Manufacturing
.
I II IIIi II 1 1 1 I 1 l II Il Il 1 I i i Ii i i I i i i 1 i i i 1 I I l 1 II I1 I I I III 1
20
10
8
6
Public Utilities
I l l II I I 1 l l I1 l I I I l ) 1 1 1 II 1 II I 1 I I I1 II I 1 I II II I l Il l I II l I 1 I i i
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
QUARTERLY TOTALS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, AT ANNUAL RATES
Note: Data include inventory valuation adjustment
1958
1960
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
marks based on tabulations of Federal income tax returns were obtained for the
series on interest paid by nonfarm proprietors and partners; and a minor reduction in the estimates of farm debt interest was made by the Department of
Agriculture. The figures for corporate interest paid and received, like those for
corporate profits, were revised to incorporate Statistics of Income data for 1955. In
the case of consumer interest payments, the
underlying debt estimates were revised upward by the Federal Reserve Board, and
a higher consumer allocation was applied
to automobile debt in line with our allocation study of auto purchases discussed earlier. Outweighing the effect of these revisions in consumers' obligations, however,
was the correction of an underestimate in
the measure of personal finance companies'
interest receipts, which are deducted from
interest paid in our procedure.
These several revisions affected not only
the interest component of national income
but that of personal income as well. A
further change, involving only the former,
stemmed from the new treatment of interest received by the Government from
abroad. This inflow is treated analogously
to a transfer, and therefore is excluded
from national income.
for the earlier period but by about $1 billion a year recently.
This reworking of the nonfarm unincorporated estimates was made possible by
the availability of Internal Revenue Service tabulations of depreciation as reported
on tax returns—by partnerships for 1953
and 1956, and by proprietorships for 1954
and 1956. The 1956 data were reported in
Business Indicators, which, as noted
earlier, provided on an accelerated schedule tabulations of key items from business
and individual tax returns.
This body of IRS data was utilized to
prepare on an industry basis the first direct
estimates of depreciation for unincorporated nonfarm enterprises since 1947,
the most recent year for which comparable
tabulations had been available. In the
interim, the 1947 benchmark had been
moved forward largely by estimates for
comparable corporate industry groups.
The reduction in nonfarm unincorporated business depreciation has been offset in part by an increase in residential
depreciation. This stemmed from the
upward revisions in the BLS estimates of
the additions and alterations component of
residential construction, as discussed
earlier.
Our revision of corporate depreciation
charges was mostly of a routine nature.
95
This large component was raised about $}4
billion for 1955, reflecting the use of Statistics of Income data for all corporations.
The 1956 estimate was increased about $1
billion; tabulations from Business Indicators were used to derive nonmanufacturing corporations' depreciation, while depreciation for manufacturing companies was
extrapolated from the somewhat higher
1955 benchmark.
The estimates of capital outlays charged
to current expense have been increased by
moderate amounts for most recent years.
A new 1954 benchmark was prepared for
producers' purchases of durable equipment
customarily charged to current expense by
use of detailed product statistics collected
in the Census of Manufactures. A second
significant change in this series occurred in
the costs of oil and gas well drilling currently expensed, for which the first direct
estimate since 1939 was constructed largely
from data reported in the 1954 Census of
Mineral Industries.
The revisions in capital consumption allowances were wholly statistical. Nonetheless, this is an area of national income research where much new developmental
work is needed, such as to derive more
meaningful measures of the volume of capital used up in production than are afforded
by book depreciation charges.
Capital Consumption
Allowances
The estimates of capital consumption
allowances presented in this report
increased from $10^4 billion in 1946 to
$37/ 2 billion in 1957. For the years 194651, the figures are from $1 to $ l / 2 billion
less than those previously published. The
revision for the subsequent period was
more moderate—downward by less than
$J4 billion each year.
The revisions for the earlier postwar
period centered very largely in farm depreciation. Several years ago the Department
of Agriculture changed its treatment of
farm capital expenditures and associated
depreciation charges. Whereas we had
recorded the new series in the national
income accounts beginning with 1952, it
was only with the present report that opportunity was afforded to incorporate the corresponding figures for 1946-51. As explained in the October 1955 Farm Income
Situation, the revision of farm depreciation
under discussion entailed the reclassification into current expenses of certain
expenditures on repairs and parts which
previously had been included in capital
outlays.
Modifications have also been made in
the depreciation series for nonfarm unincorporated enterprises. The new figures
for this series are lower—by small amounts
Measurement of Quarterly
and Monthly Movements
In their role as the most comprehensive
available measures of short-term changes
in overall economic activity, the quarterly
and monthly national income statistics have
been subject to a steadily widening interest.
Although based generally on more limited
information, these forerunners of the annual series have demonstrated their ability
to depict current economic trends and to
highlight major factors affecting the course
of general business activity.
In recognition of the urgent need for
up-to-date information on the state of the
Nation's economy, efforts have been made
to speed up the reporting system of national
income statistics. Toward this end, the
Office of Business Economics maintains a
continuing check on the gross national
product, national income, and related
series. In addition to the regularly published quarterly series, preliminary summaries are prepared reflecting the incom-
plete but latest .available data to provide a
current frame of reference for the monthly
business reviews in the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. These preliminary summaries are also regularly furnished to the
Council of Economic Advisers in order to
meet their need for the promptest possible
reporting on current economic developments.
With this same objective in mind, the
schedule of the published series has been
advanced. Since the spring of 1957, the
monthly personal income figures have been
issued 2 weeks after the close of the month
to which they refer—an advance of about
3 weeks over the previous schedule. The
quarterly income and product statistics
(with the exception of corporate profits)
are available about 6 weeks after the end
of the calendar quarter. The delay in corporate profits estimates—which become
available 3 x / 2 months after the calendar
96
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
quarter to which they refer—reflects the
timing of underlying source materials, and
is something we would very much like to
see eliminated by more prompt reporting.
In a number of important respects, our
quarterly and monthly series differ from
the corresponding annual figures. In general, these series are based on less complete information, and more reliance must
be placed on samples and indirect estimating procedures. The problem of synchronizing the income and product flows is
also greater. Additionally, the necessity of
adjusting the monthly and quarterly data
for seasonal variations interposes special
and sometimes difficult problems. Seasonal
adjustments are themselves in the nature
of estimates, and hence subject to error.
Patterns of seasonality in many of the
individual component series were modified
for the present volume, and this type of
adjustment doubtless will continue to be
improved as our experience in the postwar
period is lengthened. Also, many of the
data limitations in the existing quarterly
and monthly series can be overcome,
and toward this objective we have made
several specific recommendations in the
last section of this chapter. Nonetheless, a
margin of error inevitably will remain in
these series. But when used with proper
caution and judgment, the short-term
data—as the experience to date proves—
are extremely helpful in the measurement
and analysis of current business developments.
It may be noted that, apart from changes
in the basic data and in seasonal adjustments, the quarterly and monthly estimates are affected by revisions in the annual series to which they are controlled.
These series are of a preliminary nature
for the two or three most recent years, and
are subject to revision each July (in the National Income Number of the SURVEY) . As
a consequence, the quarterly and monthly
figures must be adjusted in line with these
regular changes made in the annual estimates. A similar problem arises periodically in connection with the incorporation
of census data which may affect the annual estimates for a more extended period.
As discussed earlier, experience with
these revisions has shown that the overall
annual aggregates are generally changed
by only a small percentage, but that the
changes in some components may be
sizable and thereby affect the quarterly
and monthly distributions. On the whole,
patterns indicated by the quarterly and
monthly figures tend to be corroborated in
the subsequent revisions, particularly if
users of the data have not interpreted the
initial changes too stringently.
UNADJUSTED SERIES
One of the significant changes made in
the new quarterly format in this report
relates to the handling of the unadjusted
series, that is, data without correction for
seasonal variation. In brief, the unadjusted
series have been retained for the gross national product and its components but
discontinued for the income components
of the national accounts with the exception of corporate profits. The discontinuance of the unadjusted income series, an
admittedly regrettable step, was undertaken in the light of our experience with
these data over the past decade.
The original decision to include unadjusted income data in our published reports
was marginal at the time the national accounts were set up in 1947, and reflected
a balance of divergent considerations. On
the one hand, there was the obvious general
advantage of showing matching sets of
unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data,
since unadjusted data are needed for certain purposes and some analysts prefer to
work with the data in this form. It was also
recognized as good statistical practice to
give users of the national income series an
opportunity of viewing the impact of
seasonal adjustments upon the estimates.
On the other hand, the character of the
"unadjusted" income data generally gave
us pause by reason of the fact that they
were not in most cases truly unadjusted.
In the present report, the latter consideration has come to have overriding importance. The data sources have not been
developed to the point required to have a
completely unadjusted income series, nor
is there any early prospect of such development. For example, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics monthly series used to interpolate
the annual estimates of wages and salaries
reflect "regular" earnings in the pay period
nearest the middle of the month, and do
not include such additional elements as
year-end bonuses. In this interpolation
process, we are therefore in effect spreading such "extra" payments over the year in
accordance with the pattern of regular
earnings, so that the resultant unadjusted
series already embodies a partial correction
for seasonality. Similarly, proprietors' income estimates, both farm and nonfarm,
constitute a particularly difficult area in
which actual net income information is
lacking on a monthly (or quarterly) basis.
Indeed, the very concept of net income on
a monthly basis lacks clarity—particularly
when applied to farming. In this situation,
income is estimated indirectly by reference
to seasonally adjusted materials—mainly
business sales or receipts-—and the same
estimates are then used for both the unadjusted and seasonally adjusted series.
In the case of other income components
such as rent and interest, where unadjusted
monthly data are also lacking, the estimates
are derived by means of graphically
smoothed curves fitted to the annual totals.
This procedure implicitly eliminates random fluctuations as well as seasonal varia-
tions from the time series. It may be added,
however, that income flows of this type are
characteristically more stable in the shortrun and therefore more amenable to
graphic smoothing than most other types.
While this data situation, in our opinion,
does not appreciably affect the reliability
of the seasonally adjusted monthly and
quarterly income series, it does negate
meaningful comparison between unadjusted and adjusted figures. Our Dresent
decision has also been influenced by periodic inquiries about the unadjusted income
series which clearly indicated that the limitations of these series—quite understandably—were often not recognized.
MAJOR DATA SOURCES
To assist users of our quarterly and
monthly estimates in the difficult task of
gauging their general order of reliability,
the following notes have been prepared.
These summarize the major underlying
data sources, and single out the strong and
weak points of methodology.
In most cases, the data sources utilized
in the preparation of the estimates are mentioned but not described. Reference to
OBE's Business Statistics supplement—issued biennially for odd-numbered years—is
therefore in order. This Supplement includes annotated descriptions of the more
than 2,600 statistical series—together with
back data for the series themselves—which
are carried regularly on a monthly or quarterly basis in the SURVEY OF CURRENT
BUSINESS.
GROSS
NATIONAL PRODUCT
The ensuing discussion of the quarterly
estimates of gross national product is subdivided according to the principal components of this aggregate. The general
approach in these figures parallels that followed annually: Total GNP is built up as
the sum of individually estimated components, with the quarterly interpolations and
extrapolations prepared for a large number
of separate series in order to make best use
of the available basic data.
Personal Consumption
Expenditures
In the main, the data underlying the
quarterly estimates of consumer purchases
of durable and nondurable goods in tables
II-6 and II—7 are essentially the same as
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
those used to interpolate the annual estimates between the census-based benchmarks for 1947 and 1954, and the special
"secondary" benchmarks established for
1951 and 1956 as described earlier in this
chapter. These data are based primarily
on the relative movements in retail sales,
with principal reliance placed on retail
sales by type of store, prepared by the
Bureau of the Census, and department
store sales by type of department, compiled by the Federal Reserve Board. In
addition, use is also made of unpublished
compilations of State sales tax data, sales
data from trade associations and other
private organizations, quantity and price
information for individual groups of commodities, and Federal retail excise tax collections.
Our discussion of methodology in connection with the annual estimates brought
out the limitations involved in using data
on retail sales by type of store to measure
changes in consumer expenditures for
commodities. However, such limitations—
stemming from the evident shifts in commodity lines among the various types of
stores—might be expected to be lessened
on a quarterly basis.
The principal components of consumer
commodities which rely on source data
other than retail sales are passenger cars,
gasoline and oil, and tobacco. For these,
there are sufficient quantity and price data
to follow the general methodology used in
the annual estimates.
group, the interpolating series for purchases of electricity is based on electric
power sales to residential consumers multiplied by revenue per kilowatt-hour, from
data compiled by the Edison Electric Institute. Similarly, purchases of gas are estimated from revenue sales of manufactured
and natural gas to residential consumers as
reported by the American Gas Association.
Quarterly movements of outlays for telephone service are based on Federal Communication Commission data on station
revenues of telephone carriers.
97
CONSTRUCTION
The quarterly, like annual, estimates of
new private construction rest very largely
on the monthly construction activity series
prepared jointly by the Business and Defense Services Administration of the Department of Commerce and the Bureau of
Labor Statistics of the Department of
Labor. The monthly figures are reported
on a seasonally adjusted as well as an unadjusted basis. Only one relatively small
part of new private construction in the
GNP—petroleum and gas well drilling—is
outside the scope of these regularly published monthly statistics, and therefore requires special estimation.
HOUSING.—The rental value of nonfarm
dwellings (owner-occupied and tenant-occupied combined) is interpolated and extrapolated on the basis of the estimated
The methodology underlying the connumber of occupied nonfarm dwelling struction estimates was summarized in the
units multiplied by the rent component of
1954 National Income supplement, and the
the BLS Consumer Price Index.
main features of these estimates have also
been brought out earlier in this chapter
TRAN SPORTATION .—Quarterly
changes in connection with the discussions of resiin purchased local transportation are deter- dential construction and fixed nonresidenmined mainly from data on passenger oper- tial investment. As is well known, there are
ating revenues of local transit lines com- weaknesses in much of the underlying
piled by the American Transit Association. source material, and these have a particular
Purchased intercity transportation is based effect on the monthly and quarterly series.
on passenger revenues as reported for Class Over the considerable range of the conI railways and Class I intercity motor car- struction estimates for which building-perriers by the Interstate Commerce Commis- mit and contract-awards data are used, the
sion, and for certificated airlines by the timing adjustments necessary to convert
Civil Aeronautics Board.
these types of information to a work-putThe estimates of auto repair services and in-place concept are imprecise on an anof bridge and road tolls, two of the prin- nual basis, and doubtless are less adequate
cipal service components included in user- for shorter time periods.
operated transportation, are derived indirectly by taking into account net gallons
EXPENDITURES FOR SERVICES
of gasoline taxed (compiled by the Public PRODUCERS' DURABLES
Roads Administration) and fluctuations in
For the quarterly estimation of consumer the BLS consumer price index for auto reThe quarterly estimates of producers'
expenditures for services, there is no body pair services.
purchases of durable equipment, both
of source data comparable in relative scope
Two of the more important service
to the retail sales series used for commodi- groups not shown separately in tables I I - unadjusted and seasonally adjusted, are
ties. Instead, the service estimates are 6 and 11-7 are personal services and recre- derived largely by interpolation and extrabuilt up in considerable detail to take ad- ation. The quarterly movements of per- polation of the annual estimates by series
vantage of the great variety of source ma- sonal services are based largely on payroll based on the OBE-SEC Plant and Equipterials bearing on this heterogeneous area. or employment data relating to major com- ment Survey. The survey results are adjusted for comparability, principally by
A partial listing by major groups of some ponents such as laundering, cleaning and
of the principal data sources is given be- dyeing, and garment repair. The recre- the exclusion of construction expenditures
(on the basis of the data just referred to),
low. These data are used as indexes, in ation estimates incorporate the data on exthe
addition of expenditures for passenger
effect, for interpolating between the esti- penditures for motion pictures prepared by
mated annual totals and extrapolating Sindlinger & Co., and Internal Revenue cars to the extent they are not covered, and
them into the current period.
Service data on the collection of Federal the inclusion of farm equipment, which is
outside the scope of this survey. The farm
As will be seen, the statistical underpin- admissions and related taxes.
purchases used in this adjustment are
ning of the quarterly estimates of consumer
benchmarked upon annual censuses of
expenditures for services is not strong. The
shipments of farm machines, equipment,
relative stability of these expenditures,
and tractors, and are extrapolated by
however, is a mitigating factor—serving to
Census Bureau data on sales of retail farm
lessen the magnitude of error which might
Gross Private Domestic
equipment dealers.
otherwise occur.
In the present revision, the Plant and
Investment
Equipment Survey has been used to estiHOUSEHOLD OPERATION.—One compomate the quarterly movement of producers'
nent of this category—consumer outlays for
This important component of the gross durables for the period back to 1947. Prior
domestic services—is the same as the esti- national product is estimated separately to this report, the survey had been used
mates of wages and salaries for the "pri- for new private construction, producers' only for the period starting in 1953. The
vate households" industry, as described be- purchases of durable equipment, and the quarterly movement in the earlier years
had been based mainly on selected industry
low. In the important household utilities change in business inventories.
98
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
sales data reported in the OBE Industry
Survey, except for the 1950-52 period when
data from the National Production Authority were utilized.
It should be emphasized that this procedure of deriving the quarterly movement
of producers' durable equipment is equivalent to using the plant and equipment data
to guide the movement of total fixed nonresidential investment, that is, producers'
durables plus private nonresidential construction. This is so because, as noted above,
the Commerce-Labor estimates of construction are deducted in computing the
adjusted plant and equipment series which
is used for interpolating and extrapolating
the annual totals of producers' durable
equipment. This deduction thus serves to
offset errors in the quarterly movements
of the private nonresidential construction
component of the GNP.
trade do not become available in time for
the initial quarterly figures. Estimates for
this group of industries are first made
judgmentally, and then are revised for the
following July National Income Number
on the basis of data obtained largely from
the SEC quarterly reports on "working
capital of United States corporations."
VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.—The source
materials and methods used in calculating
this adjustment on a quarterly basis are
generally the same as those followed annually, although the quarterly procedure is
abridged at a number of points. The annual estimates are described at length in
the 1954 Supplement, which emphasizes
the unusual difficulty of the procedure and
the limited knowledge about the actual
prices and accounting methods reflected in
the reported inventory book values.
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
The quarterly nonfarm inventory component of GNP—unadjusted for seasonal
variations—is derived as the sum of the
change in book values and the inventory
valuation adjustment. The available statistical information bearing on these two
items is sufficiently adequate to yield usable
orders of magnitude, but not precise
measurements.
Because of the residual nature of the
calculations, even small percentage errors
in the aggregates from which the changes
are computed can have an appreciable effect on the inventory component of gross
national product. In addition to this consideration, data requirements for accurate
measurement of this component are heightened by reason of its extreme volatility;
changes in business inventories often account for a major portion of quarterly increments in the entire gross national product. This volatility, it may be added, is
also one of the factors which contribute to
the difficulty of determining seasonal patterns in the quarterly changes in business
inventories.
NONFARM BOOK VALUES.—For manufac-
turing, quarterly movements in the book
value of inventories are based upon
monthly data collected in the OBE-Census
Bureau Industry Survey, which covers a
sample of reporting companies accounting
for more than 45 percent of total manufacturers' sales. The book values of wholesalers' inventories are based on relative
monthly changes obtained from the Census Bureau's sample of merchant wholesalers. Changes in inventory book values in
retail trade are estimated from the Census
sample of retail establishments and the
Federal Reserve Board's monthly data on
department store stocks. Data on nonfarm
inventories outside manufacturing and
CHANGE IN NONFARM INVENTORIES.
Measuring nonfarm inventory changes on
a seasonally corrected basis represented one
of the major tasks in the quarterly revisions undertaken for this report. Adjustments for seasonality, which have an unusually sharp impact on inventory data,
were developed on several different bases.
The series selected for incorporation into
the GNP was derived from separate adjustments of seven component parts: manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade—
each separately for durable-goods and nondurable-goods groups—and all other nonfarm industries.
Somewhat different results were obtained depending upon whether the seasonal adjustment was carried out directly
for the nonfarm inventory component of
GNP—as was done for this report—or as
the sum of separate seasonally adjusted
entries for the change in nonfarm book
values and for the inventory valuation adjustment—which was our previous procedure. Differences also appeared when
the seasonal adjustment was done for the
total and in varying degrees of industrial
detail. However, the results yielded by
these variant procedures, which were
tested with the aid of the UNIVAC program at the Bureau of the Census, were
in general only moderately different.
FARM INVENTORIES.—Actual data on
quarterly changes in farm inventories are
incomplete in coverage. Therefore, estimates are obtained simply by fitting a
smooth curve through the annual data.
For the current year, the Agricultural
Marketing Service guides the quarterly
trend of this series by means of a continuing check with Department of Agriculture
specialists on the outlook for major types
of crops and livestock.
Net Exports
Exports and imports are estimated quarterly by the same methodology which is
used on an annual basis. The estimates are
part of OBE's quarterly balance of payments statements published regularly in
the March, June, September, and December issues of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. A delay in the availability of information for some components prevents the
preparation and publication of the export
and import totals one month sooner to synchronize them with the gross national product series, and means that the net export
component of GNP for the latest quarter
must be based on incomplete data.
The postwar statistical revisions of this
component of quarterly GNP were
extremely minor, and reflected for the most
part slight alterations in seasonal adjustments. The substantial difference between
the new series on net exports and the former net foreign investment component is
wholly definitional in character—a point
explained both in connection with the
annual estimates in this chapter and in the
discussion of the new treatment of foreign
transactions in Chapter 5.
Government Purchases
The procedure of estimating Federal
purchases of goods and services quarterly
parallels closely that which is followed in
the annual series.6 However, information
for some of the adjustments required to
convert budgetary data to a national
income basis is either lacking by quarters
or does not become available in time for the
initial estimates.
A principal example of such information
is that necessary to shift the financial data
from a time-of-payment to a time-of-purchase basis. Data for this adjustment—
relating to Government purchases on
credit, advances, and prepayments—are
available with a lag of about 3 months
from special tabulations of the Securities
and Exchange Commission. A comparable
timing problem, which must be resolved in
the current quarterly estimates with only
partial information, arises in connection
with the farm price-support operations of
the Commodity Credit Corporation.
In this report, the changes in the quarterly Federal purchases series due to statistical revisions have been small, and
reflected mainly the introduction of seasonal correction in the national defense
component. The appreciable differences in
6 The Daily Statement of the United States
Treasury and the Monthly Statement of Receipts
and Expenditures of the United States Government
provide most of the basic data.
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
level between the new and old series are
definitional in nature; as discussed earlier,
the Government's international cash grants
are no longer included with Federal
purchases.
For deriving the quarterly movement of
purchases by State and local governments,
chief reliance is placed upon the estimated
payroll and construction outlays of these
units.7 Such outlays account for about
three-fourths of total State and local government purchases. Quarterly changes in
other purchases are estimated by taking into
account the indicated annual trend and
the fairly systematic relationship of these
purchases to wages and salaries.
Quarterly Constant-Dollar GNP
In the past, the estimates of gross national product available on a quarterly
basis consisted of the current-dollar series
for which the general methodology has just
been described. There existed an important
need for corresponding quarterly estimates
of GNP in constant dollars, in order to obtain a more frequent and up-to-date measure of real volume changes than that
afforded by the annual series.
This need has been met in the present
volume; the new quarterly estimates of
gross national product in constant dollars
are shown for the period since 1947 in
table 1-5 of the Statistical Section. The
figures are presented in Chapter 5, where a
description of them is provided. This covers
briefly the data and procedures used in
the estimation and the particular characteristics and limitations of these new constant-dollar measures that should be taken
into account for their informed use in
analysis.
PERSONAL
INCOME
Personal income is the only major income or product aggregate which is estimated on a monthly basis and, by reason
of its comprehensiveness of scope and the
significant supporting detail provided, it is
a leading current indicator not only of
consumer purchasing power but of general
business activity as well.
The monthly figures as shown on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis in Table
II—3 are averaged to obtain the corresponding quarterly series contained in Table
II—2. In addition to the personal income
7. As noted below, the payroll estimates are based
on BLS data ; the construction figures are reported
in the official Commerce-Labor series.
total and its breakdown by type of income
and by industrial source, this latter table
also shows the disposition of personal income among the items of taxes, consumption (described above), and saving.
The bulk of personal tax and nontax payments consists of income taxes withheld
by the Federal Government. Quarterly collections of these taxes as reported by the
Treasury are lagged one quarter to reflect
the approximate timing of actual withholding from individuals' pay.8 The seasonally adjusted series is derived by interpolating and extrapolating the calendar year
totals of withheld taxes on the basis of
seasonally adjusted payroll data.
For most other types of personal tax and
nontax payments to the Federal and State
and local governments, the general procedure is to use collections for a given calendar year to reflect the seasonally adjusted
annual rate in each quarter of that year.
A similar procedure is used for tax refunds,
which are netted out of total collections
to arrive at the estimates of personal taxes
shown in table 11-2. For current quarters,
the estimates of collections and refunds
for the year as a whole required by this
procedure are modified on the basis of
available data as the year progresses.
Personal saving is derived statistically
as the difference between disposable personal income—personal income less personal tax and nontax payments—and personal consumption expenditures. Because
of the residual nature of this estimate, relatively small changes in these income and
expenditure aggregates can lead to disproportionately large changes in estimated
personal saving. Accordingly, the quarterly
estimates for this item should be used with
caution, and interpreted more as broad
indicators of general tendency than as
precise measures of the quarter-to-quarter
movement.
Attention is now directed to the personal income series itself, which is estimated in substantial detail. The overall
annual rate of personal income for a given
month is derived as the sum of numerous
items shown separately in the published
data, and most of these, in turn, are built
up from an extensive array of finer component series. The twofold purpose behind
this approach is a familiar and traditional
one in national income measurement—
partly to obtain analytically useful breakdowns, but mostly to minimize errors of
estimation by employing a detailed framework to take advantage of all available
information in a systematic fashion.
The following description of sources and
methods touches upon each of the published components of personal income.
8. After January 1951, contributions of both employees and employers for old-age and survivors
insurance are included in the reported data ; these
contributions must be estimated and deducted.
99
WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS
First, we shall review the large component of wages and salaries, starting with
the private industry group, following on
with government, and concluding with a
note on seasonals.
PRIVATE.—For individual industry groups
comprising over 85 percent of the total,
monthly changes in private-industry payrolls are estimated from Bureau of Labor
Statistics sample information on employment and (in most cases) average weekly
earnings. Of the remaining 15 percent,
one-half is based on various public agency
sources: Railroad wages and salaries are
extrapolated by payroll data reported by
the Interstate Commerce Commission;
movements in farm wages reflect Department of Agriculture sample data on employment and wage rates; and domestic
service payrolls are based on Census Bureau Monthly Reports on the Labor Force
and the BLS consumer price index for
domestic service. For industries for which
no current information is available—about
7 percent of the total—the monthly estimates are founded on projections of past
trends and on relationships with allied
industries.
Information on payrolls reported under
the State unemployment insurance laws—
available after a 6-month lag—affords a
broad check upon the reasonableness of
the initial quarterly estimates based on the
monthly data.
GOVERNMENT.—The civilian payrolls of
the Federal Government—executive, legislative, and judicial—are reported monthly
to the Civil Service Commission from records of the individual agencies. The data
do not become available in time for our
schedule, but subsequent revisions in the
preliminary estimates (based on employment changes) are usually small. Military
payrolls are extrapolated by the strength
of the Armed Forces, as reported by the
Department of Defense; changes in pay
rates are taken into account.
The monthly change in State and local
government wages and salaries is based
initially on BLS employment estimates
compiled from a sample of government
units. Payroll data from the same source
become available about 6 weeks after the
close of the month to which they pertain.
SEASONALS.—In addition to adjustment
to the revised annual figures, the monthly
wage and salary estimates in this report
reflect (1) a comprehensive reworking of
the seasonal correction factors, and (2)
changes in the BLS interpolating series
from April 1956 to date, resulting from its
100
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
periodic alignment with data from Government social insurance programs.
Revised seasonal corrections, which had
been introduced into the 1954-56 data in
July 1957, were, in the present report,
applied to the time series as far back as it
appeared fruitful to reopen the estimates.
In most cases this meant beginning with
1951, although for some industries the revised seasonals were applied to the monthly
series for earlier years.
These new seasonal patterns were developed in considerable detail. For example, separate adjustment factors were
calculated for 19 industries in manufacturing; additionally, for each of these industries separate seasonally adjusted series
on employment, average weekly hours, and
average hourly earnings consistent with the
adjusted payroll series were computed both
for checking and for general analytical purposes. Comprehensive computations were
also made for nonmanufacturing industries, but the underlying data did not permit the preparation of a degree of industrial
detail comparable to that for manufacturing.
PROPRIETORS' INCOME
Direct data on the net income of unincorporated enterprises are lacking on a
monthly basis. It is therefore necessary to
employ indirect measures, tied to the annual estimates, to indicate the general
course of proprietors' income in the
monthly series. The monthly interpolations
are made in considerable industrial detail
in order to provide an appropriate weighting of the various types of relevant information used. For the major industry groups,
entrepreneurial income changes are based
on such indicators as sales (in trade and
manufacturing), payrolls (contract construction and insurance), consumer expenditures for services (services industries),
and mortgage records (real estate).
The object of this procedure is to catch
as much as possible of the general trend in
this type of income, and the month-tomonth movements should not be read too
closely. In itself, the procedure can only
attempt to indicate the course of gross receipts (or of some similar measure of the
volume of business activity), rather than
changes in the net-to-gross relationship.9
However, a careful study is maintained of
such data as are available on profit-ratios
in the corporate segments of the various industries, and this material is taken into account in making the entrepreneurial income estimates.
The monthly estimates of net farm income are based on the Agricultural Mar9. Such changes are reflected in the procedure
only through shifts in the relative importance of the
separate industrial components.
keting Service series on cash receipts from
farm marketings, Government payments to
farmers, and prices paid by farmers for
production items (including interest, taxes,
and wage rates). Given the partial state of
the less-than-annual statistical information
on farmers' inventories of crops and livestock, the monthly inventory change
needed to complete the income estimate is
obtained, as noted above, by a graphic
smoothing of previous annual data which
are extended by a running forecast for the
current year supplied by the AMS.
A continuous check on the monthly
farm income estimates is maintained
against the quarterly series prepared by
the AMS. Any discrepancy between these
monthly and quarterly estimates—which
is usually small—is reconciled in line with
the OBE-AMS agreement to carry identical quarterly figures on the net income of
farm operators.
DIVIDENDS
This component of monthly personal income is estimated from a sample of publicly reported dividends which is maintained by the Office of Business Economics.
The sample includes approximately 5,500
corporations and accounts for three-fourths
of total dividend disbursements.
The unadjusted monthly data are subject to wide seasonal swings, and are also
affected by temporary shifts in payment
dates and other sporadic factors. Therefore, application of seasonal adjustment
factors on a monthly basis has not proved
feasible. This is done quarterly instead, and
seasonally adjusted monthly estimates are
obtained essentially by straight-line interpolation of the adjusted quarterly averages. For the month of December, however, with the aid of information collected
in the dividend sample, separate allowance is made for any unusual variation in
the volume of year-end "extras" and special disbursements.
PERSONAL CONTRIBUTIONS FOR
SOCIAL INSURANCE
Month-to-month changes in employee
contributions for old age, survivors, and
disability insurance, railroad retirement
insurance, and Federal civilian employee
retirement systems are based on relevant
wage and salary data, with the necessary
account also taken of changes in contribution rates. Contributions to Federal Government life insurance funds and State
sickness compensation funds are based on
receipts reported by the various funds.
The estimates of monthly contributions to
State and local retirement systems represent a smooth curve drawn through annual
totals. Data on the annual contributions of
self-employed persons under the old age,
survivors, and disability insurance program, which are payable in the first quarter
of the year, are obtained from the Social
Security Administration and smoothed
throughout the year to approximate a
seasonal adjustment.
OTHER TYPES OF INCOME
For the other components of personal income—other labor income, personal interest income, and rental income of persons—very little statistical information is
available on a monthly basis. Each of them
is estimated by drawing a smooth curve
through the annual estimates—a procedure
which requires projections for the current
year which are subject to continuing check
and modification. The resulting monthly
series reflect, therefore, broad trends and
cyclical influences, but not random fluctuations.
While the method adopted here is a convention necessitated by lack of data, it is
believed to give satisfactory results. These
components typically exhibit fairly regular
changes on an annual basis, and the general assumption for them of a smooth progression in the monthly movements is not
unreasonable. Taken together, other labor
income, personal interest income, and
rental income account for a little over onetenth of total personal income.
TRANSFER PAYMENTS
For the most part, transfer payments are
reported directly by various governmental
agencies such as the Social Security Administration, Veterans' Administration,
Bureau of Employment Security, and U. S.
Civil Service Commission. For some components of transfer payments, such as State
and local government pensions and business transfer payments, no monthly information is available. The monthly estimates
for these components are derived from a
smooth curve fitted to the annual data. It
is necessary to use this latter procedure for
about 15 percent of total transfer payments
currently.
RELATION OF THE
AGGREGATES
With the principal exception of corporate earnings, which are discussed now,
the source data for the components of the
quarterly national income total have
already been covered in the description of
personal income. National income differs
from personal income in that it excludes
transfer payments and net interest paid
bv p-overnment, and it includes both
employee and employer contributions for
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
social insurance and the portions of corporate earnings not paid out in dividends.
A minor difference also appears in the
wage and salary components, in that retroactive wage payments are included in the
national income when earned and in personal income when received.
CORPORATE EARNINGS
A substantial amount of work has been
done on the corporate profits part of the
quarterly national income estimates—most
recently in connection with the present volume. The existing source materials have
been utilized assiduously, and constant
efforts have been made to improve the estimating procedures. It is clear, however,
that the further gains to be achieved in this
direction are quite limited.
Instead, the next significant stride
depends on the development of better basic
data. In general, profits data for quarterly
periods are adequate for manufacturing
but not for most of the other industries—a
fact which limits the industry detail which
we can provide (see Figure 36). One of
the prime needs is for an extension to nonmanufacturing industries, notably trade, of
the kind of sample financial survey which
has been provided for the past ten years
for manufacturing.
In the preparation of the quarterly series
on profits before tax, the general procedure
is to use the available basic data to interpolate and extrapolate the estimated annual
totals, separately by industry groups. The
data for the manufacturing industries,
which account for more than half of total
corporate profits, are collected in the Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission sample survey,
Quarterly Financial Report for United
States Manufacturing Corporations. Quarterly movements of profits in the public
utility and transportation industries are
based on reports of regulatory agencies—
Federal Communications Commission,
Federal Power Commission, and Interstate
Commerce Commission. The series for the
finance industry are derived in large measure from the summaries of net earnings of
the member banks of the Federal Reserve
System. For most other industries, including contract construction, services, wholesale trade and parts of retail trade, quarterly movements are evaluated by reference
to standard sales series or other activity
indicators and to cost-price changes, or to
reports for related industries as indicative
of shifts in profit ratios. The retail trade
estimates also rely for relevant segments
on profit margin data obtained from the
National Automobile Dealers Association
and the National Retail Merchants
Association.
The adjustment for seasonal variation
in this volatile component of the national
accounts is difficult to accomplish. To deal
with the diversity in seasonal patterns that
is encountered, the correction is made in
considerable industrial detail.
The seasonal patterns in corporate profits have been subject to periodic revision
as the postwar experience lengthened. Indeed, one of the major statistical tasks undertaken for this volume was a detailed
review and reworking, where necessary,
of the seasonal corrections in this area, but
notably for the 22 industries comprising
the manufacturing group. It should be
noted that the correction for seasonal variation is made in terms of the corporate
profits share of national income (corporate
profits before tax and inventory valuation
adjustment), which our experience has
shown permits a more meaningful basis
of adjustment than profits before taxes.
The total inventory valuation adjustment, as already set forth, is derived in the
process of estimating the quarterly change
in business inventories in the GNP. The
corporate-noncorporate breakdown of this
total is based upon the corresponding
breakdown of the book value of inventories
as developed in the annual estimates. The
relationship of corporate to total IVA on
a quarterly basis is ascertained by straightline interpolation.
Corporate profits taxes are derived by
multiplying the quarterly estimates of profits before taxes by annual tax ratios. For
current quarters, the ratio of taxes to profits before tax for the latest full year are
used with any necessary adjustments, such
as to allow for new Federal tax legislation.
Other profit components are found as
residuals: profits after tax being equal to
profits before tax less corporate profit
tax liability, and undistributed corporate
profits being equal to profits after tax less
dividends.
CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ALLOWANCES
Among the items of conceptual difference between national income and gross
national product, by far the largest are
capital consumption allowances and indirect business taxes.
Capital consumption allowances are estimated separately for depreciation, accidental damage to fixed capital, and capital
outlays charged to current expense.
Quarterly data on depreciation are
available for the large manufacturing division from the FTC-SEC Quarterly Fi-
101
nancial Report. The unadjusted depreciation estimates for other industries, and the
seasonally adjusted series for all industries,
are estimated by fitting a curve to the
annual data. This same procedure is also
followed for the estimates of accidental
damage to fixed capital.
The quarterly figures on capital outlays
charged to current expenses, on the other
hand, are derived in the process of estimating producers' durable equipment.
Essentially, the annual totals for this item
are interpolated and extrapolated quarterly on the basis of producers5 durables for
those categories of equipment which include important items charged to current
expense.
INDIRECT BUSINESS TAXES
For Federal indirect business tax liabilities, the annual totals are distributed on a
quarterly basis by Treasury data on deposits of excise taxes. The Federal nontax
series represents interpolations of budgetary fiscal year data; preliminary quarterly
estimates for this item are checked on the
basis of collection data which become available with a lag of about one quarter.
For the State and local government component of this item, the major sales taxes
levied by the States are moved by the appropriate components of the retail sales
series. Internal Revenue Service data on
taxpaid withdrawals of tobacco products
are similarly utilized in connection with
State sales taxes on tobacco. Most other
taxes and nontaxes are derived by graphic
smoothing of the annual data.
GAPS IN BASIC
DATA
The foregoing sections have covered the
statistical methodology underlying the annual, quarterly, and monthly income and
product series. Attention was focused on
considerations bearing upon the reliability
of the estimates so as to provide a guide for
the use of the data in economic analysis.
In the course of this discussion, the significant gaps in basic data flow have been
brought out, and occasional references have
been made to the ways in which the flow
of primary information might be improved.
In the concluding section which starts
on the next page, the major data gaps will
be listed and discussed systematically, and
comprehensive recommendations for improvements will be made.
102
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
Recommendations for Improvement oi
Primary Source Data
The following discussion of ways to improve the basic data will be selective.
It will include OBE's requirements from
other Government agencies for materials
that would fill major gaps in the existing
statistical information and lead to significant improvements in the national income
and product accounts. Moreover, it will be
confined to fields in which recommendations that are fairly clear-cut and of broad
applicability can be made—as distinguished from those in which solutions are
less obvious or require detailed technical
explanations.
Not included, for instance, is a discussion of our requirements, in connection
with the investment and consumption
components of the GNP, for better information on accounting practices used by
business—in drawing the borderline
between capital outlays and current costs,
in measuring inventories, and in charging
various consumption-type goods to business
expense. Again, data on the float of Government checks and additional information on Government receivables and payables are needed to improve the timing of
the Government purchase series particularly on a quarterly basis.
Regularization and extension of the
Census Bureau surveys of State and local
government finances would be desirable
to provide better benchmark and current
information for the State and local government receipt and expenditure components
of the national accounts. A variety of data
relating to the numbers, rental values, and
expenses of real properties would improve
both the personal consumption and rental
income series. Additional price data are
required for the estimates of inventory
change and of the constant-dollar national
product.
A discussion of these and other requirements was included in a comprehensive presentation we made to the National
Accounts Review Committee; this was
reprinted as appendix E of their report.
Also submitted to the Committee were our
proposals for the improvement of the primary data underlying OBE's regional and
size distribution estimates; we are in general agreement with the recommendations
of the Committee regarding these two
subjects.
The following discussion will deal in
turn with personal consumption expendi
tures for commodities, producers' durable
equipment, private construction activity,
business inventory change, entrepreneurial
income, and corporate profits.
The first two of these items, it will be
recalled, raised particular problems in the
preparation of the postwar estimates.
The construction activity series, and the
one measuring the change in business
inventories for current periods, are known
to require strengthening. However, except
for inclusion of the reported statistical revisions in the estimates of residential building, and of our reworking of the seasonal
patterns of inventory change, this could
not be accomplished in the present report,
for lack of basic data.
Both the entrepreneurial and the corporate profit series were improved significantly in the revisions just completed. But
more information is needed to strengthen
further the benchmark as well as currentperiod estimates of these two important
income components.
Consumer Commodities
The following recommendations for improving the source data that support the
estimates of consumer commodities will
focus on the commodity-flow method, on
the assumption that this method will continue to be relied upon to derive the bulk of
the commodity estimates.
In view of the complexities of the method
and the data gaps that hamper its execution, it should be indicated why alternative
methods of estimation are ruled out.
Specifically, we must comment on the idea
that retail sales data be made the mainstay
of the consumer commodity estimates. The
suggested procedure would be to eliminate
from the retail sales totals, sales made to
others than consumers—for instance, sales
of building materials—and to add to them
consumer purchases from sellers other than
retailers—such as direct purchases of food
from farmers.
Two major difficulties stand in the way
of the "retail sales" approach. In the first
place, it would be impossible by this method
to obtain estimates by type of commodity.
Retail sales information is available by
type of store only, and this is not an ade-
quate indication of commodity breakdown,
as our recent experience has demonstrated.
Secondly, the retail trade method of estimating the commodity total yields results
that are substantially lower than those obtained by the commodity-flow method.
This has been not only our own experience,
but also that of other national income estimators who have preceded us in this field.
While the causes of this discrepancy have
not finally been determined and need
further study and investigation, it is our
view that estimates benchmarked upon
retail sales data would be too low.
The essence of the commodity-flow
method, it will be remembered, is to select
among producers' shipments of commodities those destined for personal consumption without further processing, and to add
to the commodities so allocated inventory
changes and margins at the wholesale and
retail trade level, and many other items
such as transportation costs and sales taxes,
to arrive ultimately at an estimate of the
total value of commodities when purchased
by consumers.
DISTRIBUTION OF MANUFACTURERS'
SALES
In the accomplishment of the first step—
the selection of commodities destined for
ultimate consumption without further
processing—the distributions of manufacturers' sales by classes of purchasers, available in the manufacturing censuses of 1929,
1935, and 1939, are the single major source
of information. Briefly, sales to "industrial,
commercial, professional, and institutional
users"—the 1939 designation—are taken to
represent nonconsumer use, and only the
remaining sales are subject to the further
steps of the commodity-flow procedure,
such as the addition of trade inventory
changes and margins.
In the absence of the information on the
distribution of manufacturers' sales from
the 1947 and 1954 censuses, the commodity
allocations for those years had to be based
on the 1939 patterns, modified by reference to a variety of data which, on the
whole, were not satisfactory. It may be
noted, specifically, that a thorough and
systematic canvass of expert industry
knowledge was made to plug the gap created by the lack of up-to-date census information, but although this approach was
helpful, it was not an adequate substitute
for the latter.
In the light of this situation, we wish
to recommend firmly that the Census Bureau resume the collection of information
relating to the distribution of manufacturers' sales, and note with satisfaction
that work along these lines in connection
with the 1958 census is planned. We are
aware of the difficulties that led the Census
Bureau to discontinue the collection of the
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
data in 1947. We hope, however, that with
advances in the techniques of data collection it will be possible to devise new procedures which will provide reliable sales
distribution data by type of commodity,
with coverage and detail adequate to implement effectively the commodity-flow
method.
TRADE INVENTORIES
In tracing the flow of commodities from
producers to consumers, allowance must
be made for changes in the inventories of
these commodities held by wholesalers and
retailers: Increases in such inventories
must be deducted and decreases added to
producers' shipments to estimate the
amounts actually delivered to consumers.
Inventory data included in the wholesale and retail trade censuses were never
wholly satisfactory for this purpose. They
were available by type of store, rather than
on a commodity basis. The lack of synchronization in the dates of the manufacturing and trade censuses further added
to the difficulty of relating the inventory
data to producers' shipments.
Recently, the position has become even
weaker. The 1954 Census of Wholesale
Trade collected data on beginning and
year-end inventories, but only the latter
were tabulated. In the 1958 census only
year-end data will be collected. No inventory data were tabulated from the 1954
Retail Trade Census, and none will be
collected for 1958.
In the absence of usable data in the basic
censuses, the 1954 benchmark calculations
of wholesale inventory changes relied on
the 1953 Survey of Wholesale Trade. Retail inventory changes were developed from
corporate tax return data. The inventory
information in these sources was less detailed than that in the pre-1954 censuses;
and, inasmuch as comprehensive surveys
of wholesale trade have not been conducted since 1953, the data available for
future commodity-flow calculations are
likely to be still less satisfactory.
The fact that inventory changes in trade
for the year 1954 as a whole were comparatively small was fortunate from the
standpoint of making the benchmark estimates for that year. But one cannot count
upon a repetition of this fortuitous event;
under less favorable circumstances absence
of detailed, reliable information on trade
inventory change may emerge as a significant gap in the commodity-flow method.
Accordingly, the provision of such information—either via the census enumerations or through strengthened sample surveys—should be put on the agenda for data
improvements.
RETAIL TRADE MARGINS
The addition of trade margins is a quantitatively very important step in the com
modity-flow method. In 1954, for instance,
these margins constituted about one-half
of the value of producers' shipments of
commodity-flow commodities and about
one-third of the total value of these commodities in the hands of consumers.
Wholesale margins are much smaller
than retail margins, approximately onefifth their size. While the information on
which their estimates rest is not fully satisfactory, we feel that a tolerable estimate
of this item can be made.
With respect to retail trade margins the
situation is different. Since data on retailers' expenses are not collected in the Census of Retail Trade, no information pertinent to the estimate of margins is available
from this source. Instead, as noted earlier,
we have been relying on the results of a
sample of retail trade firms drawn from
income tax returns on the basis of a list prepared from Census Bureau records.
Our work with this sample has raised
doubts as to its adequacy. Frequent and
inexplicable differences between sales as
given on the Census list and in the tax
records were noted; and, among other
problems, difficulties were encountered in
eliminating margins attributable to the
manufacturing activities of trade firms
from the income tax return data. More
generally, the sample was too small for our
requirements.
In view of this situation, it is imperative
that more adequate resources be allocated
to the collection of information on retail
trade margins. The most obvious avenue
is to strengthen the present procedure by
increasing the size of the sample and devoting more care to its selection. Alternatively, the feasibility of developing margin
information in connection with the Annual
Census Surveys of Retail Trade should be
considered.
DATA FOR ANNUAL ESTIMATES
As will be recalled from the earlier
review of methodology, in estimating consumer commodities a major difficulty is
encountered in obtaining a correct breakdown of their composition for nonbenchmark years to which, given the present data
situation, a full-fledged commodity-flow
method cannot be applied.
Prior to the current revisions, the general
procedure was to interpolate and extrapolate the benchmark estimates of the commodity detail obtained via the commodityflow method by sales data of corresponding types of retail stores. But basic changes
in merchandising practices have disqualified the retail interpolation and extrapolation method as means of obtaining reliable
estimates of commodity composition.
To minimize the error stemming from
the use of retail sales data, we have introduced several changes in methodology,
featuring the establishment of "secondary"
103
benchmarks based upon an abbreviated
version of the commodity-flow method.
While we believe that these changes will
prevent gross errors in commodity composition by reducing the use of retail sales
data, we recognize the weaknesses of the
abbreviated commodity-flow method. Specifically, the Annual Surveys of Manufactures which are used in lieu of the Census
of Manufactures as a source for producers' shipments of manufactured commodities present this information in less
detail than does the basic census. Another
major gap is the absence of current information on trade margins that could be utilized to build up the commodity-flow
estimates.
In order to obtain more reliable information on the annual composition of the
commodity flow, the commodity detail of
the Annual Survey of Manufactures should
be expanded on a selective basis, and
annual information on retail trade margins
usable in conjunction with the commodityflow method should be provided. Next in
order of importance would be an improvement in the information on wholesale and
retail inventories, along the lines indicated
earlier.
Producers' Durable Equipment
The estimates of producers' durable
equipment provide information on the
breakdown of fixed investment by types of
product. They are thus an essential element
in a balanced program for the development
of fixed investment statistics which envisages, in addition, breakdowns of the total
by industry and legal form of the purchaser.
The producers' durable estimates, like
those of consumer commodities, are based
for the most part on the commodity-flowT
method. The recommendations that have
been made for the strengthening of that
method in connection with the consumption series apply here also, but with some
change in emphasis. For instance, inasmuch as producers' durable equipment
does not usually pass through retail channels, the main inventory data that are
required in the present connection relate
to wholesale trade.
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
Again, the main use that would be made
of manufacturers' sales distributions in the
estimation of producers' durable equipment would be in the determination of purchases of such equipment by government.
These purchases must be deducted from
manufacturers' shipments of equipment,
because the GNP investment series covers
private business only; government acquisitions of investment goods are part of
104
DATA SOURCES AND PROCEDURES
government purchases of goods and services. It is accordingly essential from the
standpoint of the producers' durable estimates that the manufacturers' sales distributions show separately sales to government—Federal and State and local.
Government purchases of durable equipment are large and variable; regular information on them is required to develop
annual estimates of producers' durable
equipment utilizing an abbreviated commodity-flow method that builds on the
shipment data contained in the Annual
Surveys of Manufactures.
Governmental records, from which information relative to equipment purchases
is now derived, are ,at present inadequate in
coverage, detail, and timing to provide the
requisite information. Better accommodation of governmental accounting systems—
including those of the Department of Defense, which is the largest purchaser of
durable equipment—to the needs of national income measurement is one avenue
to data improvement that should be
explored.
An alternative approach that should be
considered is to derive the information on
the government take of producers' durables from sellers' rather than from buyers'
records, in conjunction with the Census
surveys of manufactures. In this connection, it may be recalled that data on government purchases obtained during World
War II and the Korean war in surveys run
by the Census Bureau were a key element
in the estimation of private producers'
durable equipment for those periods.
Construction Statistics
Owing to the importance and volatility
of construction activity, the weakness of
existing construction statistics has been a
handicap to the development of a reliable
set of national accounts.
Accurate and meaningful measurement
is difficult in the field of construction,
which is populated by small-business units
that are often hard to identify and do not
maintain accurate business records. In the
absence of adequate resources devoted to
construction statistics, the available estimates have not provided a reliable indication either of the level of construction activity or of its short-term movements.
Significant understatements of the former
have come to light recently, with possible
further upward adjustments in the offing.
Measurement of short-term movement has
been handicapped by the lack of information relating to the actual time phasing of
construction projects constituting the bulk
of private construction, and to a lesser
extent by the difficulty of measuring
seasonal movements.
A comprehensive program for the improvement of construction statistics is now
under active consideration by the Budget
Bureau and the interested Federal agencies. The major specifications—additional
to those of providing more reliable estimates of the level and movement of the
value of construction put in place—which
such a program would have to satisfy from
the standpoint of strengthening the
national accounts are briefly discussed
below.
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK
In the first place, this program would
have to be designed to yield consistent
measures of output, in terms of construction put in place, on the one hand, and in
terms of the wages, profits, and other incomes earned in construction, on the other.
At present these two types of measures, to
the extent that they can be put together on
the basis of available information, often
yield inconsistent results, particularly on a
quarterly basis.
Secondly, the construction program
should be framed carefully to meet as far
as possible the definitional issues that arise
in fitting construction into the national
accounts. To mention only a few outstanding ones, careful distinctions must be
drawn between construction, on the one
hand, and durable equipment and the improvement of land on the other. New construction (including major alterations and
repairs) must be distinguished from repair
and maintenance outlays. The treatment
of profit margins must be clear-cut and
meaningful, and the value of new construction must also be defined clearly with
respect to such marginal items as architects'
fees and settlement charges.
It is to be emphasized that, from our
standpoint, any useful survey of construction must be based not only upon a thorough knowledge of the construction industry itself, but also upon an analysis of transactions in the real estate markets in which
the products of the industry are bought and
sold, and of the place of these transactions
in the national accounts. In this manner
the results will be either directly appropriate for inclusion in the national accounts
or, wherever definitional departures appear
unavoidable, it will at least be clear in what
respect they will have to be modified in
order to make them appropriate for
inclusion.
Third, improvements in the present classification of construction activity seem
desirable. This classification is a hybrid
between one based on product type and one
based on purchasing industry. While in the
case of construction the two classifications
coincide much more closely than in the
case of producers' equipment, so that broad
commonsense inferences from one to the
other are usually possible, the present construction classification should be reviewed
so as to yield the best possible information
for product and industrial breakdowns of
private fixed investment.
Inventory Change
Inventory change is a volatile item
which, although small in relation to total
national output, accounts for a large part
of short-term fluctuations in business activity. Accurate measures of the inventory
component of gross national product are
therefore highly desirable from the standpoint of analyzing the ups and downs of
business.
CURRENT DATA FOR TRADE
In the measurement of current inventory
change, trade is the major area that requires strengthening. Needless to say, it is
recognized that progress is made difficult
by the inadequacies of existing business
records and by the problems involved in
sampling this segment of the economy.
For wholesale trade, current sample information is confined to monthly reports
from merchant wholesalers. No information is available on other types of wholesalers—such as agents and brokers, assemblers of farm products, and bulk
petroleum stations, accounting for about
one-quarter of the inventory holdings of
firms engaged in wholesale trade. The first
step to remedy this gap would be to reinstitute the Survey of Wholesale Trade
(taken in 1953) on a regular annual basis.
The coverage of the survey should be comprehensive to include wholesalers other
than merchant wholesalers; it should be
designed to provide information by legal
form, and to take adequate account of
business turnover.
With respect to retail inventories, the
main requirement is the strengthening of
the monthly sample for small retailers. The
current sample of retailers with 10 or fewer
outlets is 1,500 out of a universe population
of about 1.7 million. These small retailers
account for about 80 percent of total retail
inventory holdings.
Provision of legal form information
would be desirable in connection with the
annual survey.
Book values outside manufacturing and
trade, it might be noted, are not now covered adequately on a current basis. Quarterly information relating to corporations
is contained in the Securities and Exchange
Commission's Working Capital of United
States Corporations. But it is not too se-
HOW THE ESTIMATES WERE MADE
curely founded, and becomes available too
late for inclusion in the current quarterly
estimates of gross national product. (Noncorporate business inventories outside
manufacturing and trade are not covered
at all, but are insignificant in magnitude.)
While the deficiency in inventory information outside manufacturing and trade
is not a major one from the standpoint
of the national accounts, it would be desirable to remedy it in view of the intensity
with which inventory data are being
scrutinized by analysts of business fluctuations.
Proprietors' Income
The estimates of nonfarm entrepreneurial income 10 for the postwar period have
been strengthened considerably, mainly
because of improvements in the data furnished by the Internal Revenue Service.
First, the extension of the individual
income tax and the upsurge of money
incomes have increased the coverage
of entrepreneurial incomes in IRS taxreturn statistics to such an extent that these
statistics can now serve as the springboard
for estimating the level of these incomes
as well as a comprehensive indicator of
their annual change. Secondly, the IRS
audit control program has provided valuable information for adjusting the totals
reported on income tax forms for the
underreporting of income. Thirdly, the
publication of Business Indicators has cut
down substantially the period for which
we must rely on fragmentary information
to extrapolate our estimates.
The following recommendations are
directed toward further improving the
IRS data and filling the gap in recentperiod information which these data cannot provide.
AUDIT CONTROL STUDIES
The last audit control study which was
tabulated referred to 1949 and was confined to sole proprietors. Audit control
studies should be made at regular intervals,
and extended to cover partnerships. A
shortcoming of the audit control program
from our standpoint is that it is not
designed to disclose all underreporting of
10. This discussion is limited to nonfarm entrepreneurial income. The farm component is discussed
in detail in Major Statistical Series of the U S
Department of Agriculture, Volume 3, Gross and
Net Farm Income, Agricultural Handbook No. 118
U. S. Department of Agriculture, December 1957
income, but only that portion of it which
might be discovered by an audit investigation of a specified intensity. To obtain a
closer approximation of the magnitude of
total underreporting, a subsample of the
audit control sample might be subjected to
further, even more thorough processing.
ANNUAL SAMPLE SURVEYS
To improve the estimates for the most
recent years, an attempt should be made
to obtain data on entrepreneurial incomes
through an annual sample survey. Substantial difficulties in securing reliable information would of course be encountered in
this area in which small, ephemeral units
without adequate accounting records are
numerous. However, no other alternative
seems to be available for strengthening this
important component of the national
income estimates.
Corporate Profits
The estimates of corporate profits have
been strengthened by the key data on nonmanufacturing corporations made available in Business Indicators. Using these
data in conjunction with the SEC-FTC
quarterly sample on manufacturing corporations, we can now extend the Statistics
of Income benchmark to all but the last
1 or 2 years without resort to data sources
that are obviously inferior.
Three major gaps remain to be filled.
First, current quarterly reporting of corporate profits should be extended to nonmanufacturing corporations. Extension to
wholesale and retail trade is most urgent.
In the longer run, however, consideration
should be given to other nonmanufacturing
industries that contribute sizably to the
profits total and are not covered
adequately, such as by reports of regulatory agencies.
Secondly, the current quarterly reports
should be speeded up. The results of the
present quarterly survey of manufacturing corporations are published on a schedule which entails a two-month lag in their
inclusion in the national income and product accounts. In view of the strategic importance of profits in economic fluctuations, this is a serious handicap to current
business analysis.
Thirdly, the audit control program of
the IRS should be extended to corporations. On the basis of the information now
available, we are able to make only an
order-of-magnitude allowance for profits
disclosable by audit.
105
AVENUES OF
PROGRESS
In a discussion of data gaps and their
remedies, one must both make a balanced
evaluation of the existing situation and set
standards that are reasonable. With respect to the former point, our listing of the
deficiencies of the available source materials should not give rise to the impression that the present data situation is poor.
Quite on the contrary. The primary source
data upon which the United States national income and product estimates rest
compare favorably in quantity and quality
with those available in most, if not all,
other countries, and have undergone major
improvements over the years. It is true that
progress has not been uniform, and we are
especially concerned about the pace of it
during the postwar period.
Just as it would be mistaken to take a
pessimistic view of the present state of the
primary data underlying the national income and product estimates, so would it be
wrong to pin excessive hopes on the results
that might flow from their improvement.
From the review of statistical approach and
methodology, it may be fairly concluded
that no expenditure of resources on the
improvement of the estimates that can
rationally be justified can ever free them
of some margin of error.
However, as has been pointed out, national income estimates are eminently useful in economic analysis even though they
are subject to error, provided that in handling them one is aware of their limitations. While the most obvious avenue of
rendering them more useful is to continue
work on their improvement, an equally
important approach is to help users to employ the statistics effectively, in spite of
their shortcomings.
The Office of Business Economics has
improved the accuracy of national income
statistics in the past by pressing its requirements for primary data, and by processing the existing information by careful
estimating methods. It has promoted the
effective use of national income statistics
through its analyses of the American economy in the national income framework,
and through its published evaluations of
the methodology underlying the estimates.
The present volume continues in this tradition—in addition to extending the factual information on the United States
economy in the statistical tables which
follow.
Statistical
Section
466759 O~59
8
STATISTICAL SECTION
LIST OF TABUS
I. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME*
Page
1-1. Gross National Product or Expenditure, 192957 (2)
1-2. Gross National Product or Expenditure in Constant Dollars, 1929-57 (40)
1-3. Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
Rates, 1946-57 (45)
1-4. Gross National Product or Expenditure, Quarterly, 1946-57 (44)
1-5. Gross National Product or Expenditure, SeasonAlly Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
Rates, in Constant Dollars, 1947-57 . . . .
1-6. Gross National Product by Major Type of Product, 1929-57
1-7. Gross National Product by Major Type of Product, in Constant Dollars, 1929-57
1-8. National Income by Type of Income, 1929-57
(1 and 34) . . . . ' .
1-9. National Income by Type of Income, Seasonally
Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates,
1946-57 (43)
1-10. National Income by Industry, 1929-57 (13) . .
118
118
120
122
124
126
126
126
128
130
Pago
I—11. National Income by Industry Division, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
Rates, 1946-57
1-12. National Income and Gross National Product
by Legal Form of Organization, 1929-57 (7,
12, and 36)
1-13. Gross National Product by Legal Form of
Organization, in Constant Dollars, 1929-57 .
1-14. National Income by Corporate and Noncorporate Form of Organization, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates,
1946-57
1-15. Farm and Nonfarm Business Gross Product, in
Current and Constant Dollars, 1929-57 . . .
1-16. Gross National Product Originating in General
Government, Farms, and All Other Industries,
in Current and Constant Dollars, 1909-28 . .
1-17. Relation of Gross National Product, National
Income, and Personal Income, 1929-57 (4) .
1-18. Relation of Gross National Product, National
Income, and Personal Income, Seasonally
Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates,
1946-57 (49)
132
134
136
136
138
138
138
140
I. PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAY*
Page
II—1. Personal Income and Its Disposition, 1929-57
(3 and 36)
II—2. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Seasonally
Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates,
1946-57 (47)
11-3. Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted Monthly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57 (52). . . '.
11-4. Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Type of
Product, 1946-57 (30)
, ~
_,
,.
, .. .
TT , D
11-D. Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major
Type, in Constant Dollars, 1946-57
144
146
148
150
151
II-6. Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major
Type, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals
at Annual Rates, 1946-57 (51)
152
11-7. Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major
Type, Quarterly, 1946-57 (50)
154
Page
II—8. Personal Income, by States and Regions, 192957
II—9. Per Capita Personal Income, by States and
Regions, 1929-57
_
Personal Income, Total and Per
n 10 Disposable
Capita, by States and Regions, Selected Years,
1929-55
11-11. Distribution of Consumer Units and Their
Family Personal Income by Income Brackets,
Selected Years, 1944-56
11-12. Distributions of Nonfarm Families, Farm Operator Families, and Unattached Individuals and
Their Family Personal Income, by Income
Brackets 1953-56
. . .
,„
^
.
.,
.
'
T,
.
/
,
'
',
A
fT
r
T
T
11-13. Distribution of Family Personal Income Among
Quintiles of Consumer Units, Selected Years,
1944-56
Figures in parentheses refer to corresponding tables in the 1954 National Income supplement.
156
158
160
161
161
161
AQQ
110
STATISTICAL SECTION
III.
GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES*
Page
III—1. Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures,
1946-57 (8 and 9)
111-2. State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures, 1946-57 (8 and 9)
164
165
III—3. Government Receipts and Expenditures, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
Rates, 1946-57
166
111-4. Government Receipts and Expenditures, Quarterly, 1946-57
168
III—5. Social Insurance Funds, 1946-57 (10)
170
. . . .
III—6. Contributions for Social Insurance, 1946-57
(34 and 35)
IV.
170
Page
111-7. Government Transfer Payments to Persons,
1946-57 (36)
111-8. Government Expenditures by Type of Function,
1952-57
111-9. Object Breakdown of Government Purchases of
Goods and Services, Selected Functions,
1952-57
111-10. Relation of Federal Government Receipts and
Expenditures in the National Income Accounts to the Budget, 1952-57
111-11. Relation of State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income
Accounts to Bureau of Census Data, Fiscal
Years 1952-56
Pag*
182
182
182
178
178
179
Page
IV-4. Relation of Foreign Transactions in the National
Income Accounts to Balance of Payments, 194657
IV-5. Balance of Payments on Goods, Services, and
Unilateral Transfers, 1946-57
IV-6. United States Government Net Foreign Assistance, 1946-57
184
184
185
SAVING AND INVESTMENT*
Page
V - l . Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, 1946-57 (5)
188
V-2. Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, Seasonally
Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates,
1946-57
188
V-3. New Construction Activity, by Type, 1946-57
(31)
V-4. New Construction Activity, by Type, in Constant
Dollars, 1946-57
191
V-5. Private Purchases of Producers' Durable Equipment, 1946-54 (32)
192
190
V-6. Private Purchases of Producers' Durable Equipment, in Constant Dollars, 1946-54
. . . .
192
V-7. Expenditures on New Plant and Equipment by
U. S. Business, 1946-57
193
V-8. Net Change in Business Inventories, 1946-57
(33)
193
Page
V-9. Securities and Exchange Commission Estimates
of Personal Saving and Its Disposition and
Comparison with Office of Business Economics
Estimates of Personal Saving, 1946-57 (6) . .
V-10. Sources and Uses of Corporate Funds, 1946-57 .
V - l l . Balance of Payments on Capital Account, 194657
V—12. Private Purchases of Structures and Equipment
for Manufacturing Establishments, 1929-57 .
V-l 3. Depreciation on Privately Owned Structures and
Equipment in Manufacturing Establishments,
1929-57
V-l4. Net Formation of Privately Owned Structure and
Equipment Capital in Manufacturing Establishments, 1929-57
V-l 5. Real Net Value of Privately Owned Structures,
Equipment, and Inventories in Manufacturing
Establishments, End of Year, 1928-57 . . . .
* Figures in parentheses refer to corresponding tables in the 1954 National Income supplement.
172
FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS
IV-1. Foreign Transactions in the National Income
Accounts, 1946-57
IV-2. Foreign Transactions in the National Income
Accounts, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57
IV-3. Foreign Transactions in the National Income
Accounts, Quarterly, 1946-57
V.
171
194
195
195
196
196
196
196
LIST OF TABLES
VI.
INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY*
Page
VI-1. Compensation of Employees, by Industry, 194657 (14)
VI-2. Wages and Salaries, by Industry, 1946-57 (15) .
VI-3. Supplements to Wages and Salaries, by Industry
Division, 1946-57 (16)
VI—4. Income of Unincorporated Enterprises, by Industry Division, 1946-57 (17)
VI-5. Corporate Profits Before Tax, by Industry, 194657(18)
VI—6. Federal and State Corporate Profits Tax Liability, by Industry, 1946-57 (19)
VI-7. Corporate Profits After Tax, by Industry, 1946—
57(20)
VI-8. Net Corporate Dividend Payments, by Industry,
1946-57(21)
VI-9. Undistributed Corporate Profits, by Industry,
1946-57(22)
VI-10. Corporate Profits (Before Tax) and Inventory
Valuation Adjustment, by Broad Industry
Groups, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals
at Annual Rates, 1946-57
VII.
Page
200
201
VI—11. Inventory Valuation Adjustment, by Industry
Division, 1946-57(23)
VI-12. Net Interest, by Industry Division, 1946-57
(24)
202
VI-13. Number of Full-Time Equivalent Employees, by
Industry, 1946-57(25)
211
VI-14. Average Number of Full-Time and Part-Time
Employees, by Industry, 1946-57 (26) . . . .
212
VI-15. Average Annual Earnings per Full-Time Employee, by Industry, 1946-57 (27)
213
202
203
204
210
210
VI-16. Number of Persons Engaged in Production, by
205
206
207
Industry, 1946-57 (28)
214
VI-17. Corporate Sales, by Industry, 1946-57 (29) . .
215
VI-18. Corporate Depreciation Charges, by Industry,
1946-57
VI-19. Noncorporate Depreciation Charges, by Industry
Division, 1946-57
216
217
208
SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES*
V I I - l . Gross National Product: Receipts and Expenditures by Major Economic Groups, 1946-57 . .
VII-2. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National
Product or Expenditure, 1929-57 (41)
. . .
VII-3. Implicit Price Deflators for Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Gross National Product or Expenditure, 1947-57
VI1-4. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National
Product by Major Type of Product, 1929-57 .
VI1-5. Gross National Product by Major Type of
Product and Purchaser, 1929 and 1947-57 . .
VI1-6. Gross National Product by Major Type of
Product and Purchaser, in Constant Dollars,
1929 and 1947-57
VI1-7. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National
Product by Major Type of Product and Purchaser, 1929 and 1947-57
VII-8. Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National
Product by Legal Form of Organization,
1929-57 .
VII-9. Income and Gross Product Originating in
Farming, 1929-57
Page
220
220
Page
VII-10 Farm Gross Product, in Constant Dollars,
1929-57
VII-11 Implicit Price Deflators for Farm Gross Product,
1929-57
VII-12, Revised Farm Series. 1929-45
226
226
228
222
V I I - l 3. Implicit Price Deflators for Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Major Type, 1946-57 .
222
VII-14. Implicit Price Deflators for New Construction
Activity, 1946-57
224
VII-l 5 Implicit Price Deflators for Producers' Durable
Equipment, 1946-54
229
VII-16, Monetary and Imputed Interest, 1946-57 (37) .
229
VII-17. Major Items of Personal Income and Personal
Consumption Expenditures in Kind, 1946-57
(39)
229
VII-18. Corporate Profits and Inventory Valuation Adjustment, Quarterly, 1946-57 (42)
230
VII-19. Relation of Corporate Profits, Taxes, and Dividends to Corresponding Totals as Tabulated
by Internal Revenue Service, 1946-55 (38) . .
230
224
225
226
226
* Figures in parentheses refer to corresponding tables in the 1954 National Income supplement.
111
228
228
STATISTICAL SECTION
TABLE CROSS REFERENCES
1954 NATIONAL INCOME SUPPLEMENT AND PRESENT VOLUME
1954 National Income supplement
U. S. Income
and Output
TABLE
NO.
1 National Income by Distributive Shares, 1929-53 . .
2 Gross National Product or Expenditure, 1929-53 . .
3 Personal Income and Disposition of Income, 1929—
53
Relation of Gross National Product, National Income,
and Personal Income, 1929-53
Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, 1929-53 . . . .
TABLE
NO.
1-8
j_t
1954 National Income supplement
TABLE
NO.
16
17
II_1
18
1-17
V-l
19
20
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Securities and Exchange Commission Estimates of
Personal Saving and Comparison with Department
of Commerce Estimates of Personal Saving, 1933—
53
V-9
Consolidated Business Income and Product, 192953
part to 1-12
Government Receipts, 1929-53
Ill—1 & 2
Government Expenditures, 1929-53
Ill—1 & 2
Social Insurance Funds, 1929-53
Ill—5
Transactions of the Rest of the World with the United
States, 1929-53
Parts to I V-l and
National Income by Legal Form of Organization,
1929-53
National Income by Industrial Origin, 1929-53 . .
Compensation of Employees, by Industry, 1929-53 .
Wages and Salaries, by Industry, 1929-53 . . . .
112
Supplements to Wages and Salaries, by Industry
Divisions, 1929-53
Income of Unincorporated Enterprises, by Industry
Division, 1929-53
Corporate Income before Federal and State Income
and Excess Profits Taxes, by Industry, 1929-53 . .
Federal and State Corporate Income and Excess
Profits Tax Liability, by Industry, 1929-53 . . .
Corporate Income after Federal and State Income
and Excess Profits Taxes, by Industry, 1929-53 . .
TABLE
NO.
VI-3
VI-4
VI-5
VI-6
VI-7
21
Net Corporate Dividend Payments, by Industry,
1929-53
VI-8
22 Undistributed Corporate Income, by Industry, 192953
VI-9
23 Inventory Valuation Adjustment, by Industry Division, 1929-53
VI-11
24 Net Interest, by Industry Division, 1929-53 . . . . VI-12
25 Number of Full-Time Equivalent Employees, by
Industry, 1929-53
VI-13
26
V-l 1
27
1-12
.1-10
VI-1
VI-2
U. S. Income
and Output
28
29
30
Average Number of Full-Time and Part-Time Employees, by Industry, 1929-53
Average Annual Earnings per Full-Time Employee,
by Industry, 1929-53
Number of Persons Engaged in Production, by Industry, 1929-53
Corporate Sales, by Industry, 1929-53
Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Type of
Product, 1929-53
VI-14
VI-15
VI-16
VI-17
H-4
TABLE CROSS REFERENCES
U. S. Income
and Output
1954 National Income supplement
TABLE
NO.
TABLE
NO.
1954 National Income supplement
113
U. S. Income
and Output
TABLE
NO.
TABLE
NO.
31
New Construction Activity, by Type, 1929-53 . . .
V-3
42
32
Private Purchases of Producers' Durable Equipment,
1929-52
National Income by Distributive Shares, Quarterly,
1939-53
'. part to VII-18
V-5
43
National Income by Distributive Shares, Seasonally
Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates,
1939-53
1-9
44
Gross National Product or Expenditure, Quarterly,
1939-53
1-4
Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally
Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates,
1939-53
1-3
33
Net Change in Business Inventories, 1929-53
V-8
34
Supplements to Wages and Salaries, 1929-53
1-8,
111-6
35
Personal Contributions for Social Insurance, 1929-53. Ill—6
45
36
Transfer Payments, 1929-53
1-12, II—1, III-7
37
Monetary and Imputed Interest, 1929-53 . . . .
38
Reconciliation of Department of Commerce Estimates
of Corporate Profits with Internal Revenue Service
Tabulations, 1929-51
VII-19
VII-16
39
Major Items of Personal Income and Personal Consumption Expenditures in Kind, 1929-53 . . . . VII-17
46
Disposition of Personal Income, Quarterly, 1939-53 .
47
Disposition of Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1939-53 .
48
Relation of Gross National Product, National
Income, and Personal Income, Quarterly, 193953
49
Relation of Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1939-53 . .
1-18
Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type,
Quarterly, 1939-53
II-7
51
Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type,
Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
Rates, 1939-53
II-6
52
Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted
Totals at Annual Rates, 1929-53
11-3
50
40
Gross National Product or Expenditure in Constant
Dollars, 1929-53
41
Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product
by Major Segments, 1929-53
VI1-2
1-2
11-2
Monthly
STATISTICAL SECTION
SUMMARY DATA FOR 1957
I.—National Income and Product Account, 1957 *
[Billions of dollars]
Item.
1
Item
Compensation of employees.
2
3
4
Wages and salaries
Disbursements (II-7)
Excess of accruals over disbursements (V-ll)
5
6
Supplements
Employer contributions for
(111-18)
Other labor income (11-11)
7
social
insurance
254.6
24
Personal consumption expenditures (II-2).
284. 4
238. 1
238.1
.0
25
Gross private.domestic investment (V-l)_.
65.3
26
27
28
Net exports of goods and services.
Exports (IV-1)
Imports (IV-2)
4.9
26.0
21.0
29
Government purchases of goods and services (III—1)
85. 7
16. 5
7. 6
8.9
8
Proprietors' income (11-12)
9
Rental income of persons (11-15)
11.8
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
41. 9
10
43.0
Profits before tax
Tax liability (111-15)
Profits after tax
Dividends (11-16)
Undistributed (V-12)
43.4
21.6
21. 8
12.4
9.4
16
Inventory valuation adjustment (V-13)_
17 Net interest (11-18)
-1. 5
12. 6
18 NATIONAL INCOME
364.0
11
12
13
14
15
1. 6
19
Business transfer payments (11-21)
20
Indirect business tax and nontax liability (III—16)
21
Current surplus of government enterprises less subsidies
37. 6
(111-10)
22
3
37. 7
Capital consumption allowances (V-14)
.7
23 Statistical discrepancy (V-16)
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
-1.
_.._
440.3
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
1. Numbers in parentheses indicate accounts and items of counter-entry in the accounts.
114
440.3
SUMMARY DATA FOR 1957
115
II.—Personal Income and Outlay Account, 1957 1
[Billions of dollars]
Item
Item
1
Personal tax and nontax payments (III—12)
42. 7
2
Personal consumption expenditures (1-24)
284. 4
3
4
5
6
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Personal saving (V-10)
39. 9
138. 0
106. 5
20. 7
7
Wage and salary disbursements (1-3)
8
9
10
Manufacturing,
Other private. _
Government
11
Other labor income (1-7) _
12
Proprietors' income (1-8).
Business and professional.
Farm
13
14
80.6
117. 4
40. 1
8. 9
43. 0
31.4
11.6
15 Rental income of persons (1-9) _
11.8
16
12. 4
Dividends (1-14)
17 Personal interest income
Net interest (1-17)
Net interest paid by government (III—9).
18
19
20
Transfer payments
21
22
23
PERSONAL OUTLAY AND SAVING
238. 1
347.
Business (1-19)_ ___
Government (III-7).
Less: Personal contributions for social insurance (III—19)_
PERSONAL INCOME
18. 8
12. 6
6.2
21. 5
1. 6
19. 9
6. 6
347. 9
III.—Government Receipts and Expenditures Account, 1957 1
[Billions of dollars]
Item
1
2
3
4
5
6
Item
Purchases of goods and services (1-29)
Federal
National defense (less sales)
Other
State and local
Transfer payments
85. 7
12
49. 4
43. 9
5. 5
36.3
13
14
15
Corporate profits tax accruals (1-12)
21.6
21. 3
16
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals (1-20)
37. 6
Contributions for social insurance
14. 2
7
To persons (11-22)
19. 9
17
8
Foreign (IV-3)
1. 5
9
Net interest paid (11-19)
6. 2
18
19
10 Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises
(1-21)
_____
11 Surplus or deficit ( —) on income and product account
(V-15)
Personal tax and nontax receipts (II—1)
Federal
State and local
Employer (1-6)
Personal (11-23)
37. 4
5. 4
7. 6
6. 6
1.3
1. 7
GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES AND SURPLUS-- 116.2
GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS
1. Numbers in parentheses indicate accounts and items of counter-entry in the accounts.
42. 7
116.2
116
STATISTICAL SECTION
IV.—Foreign Transactions Account, 1957 1
[Billions of dollars]
Item
Item
1
Exports of goods and services (1-27)
26. 0
RECEIPTS FROM ABROAD
2
Imports of goods and services (1-28)
3
Transfer payments from U. S. Government (III—8)
4
Net foreign investment (V-9)
PAYMENTS TO ABROAD
26.0
21.0
1. 5
3. 5
26.0
V.—Gross Saving and Investment Account, 1957 1
[Billions of dollars]
Item
1
Item
Gross private domestic investment (1-25)
65. 3
2
3
4
New construction
Residential nonfarm
Other
36. 5
17. 0
19. 5
5
Producers' durable equipment
27. 9
6
7
8
Change in business inventories
Nonfarm
Farm
9
Net foreign investment (IV-4)
1.0
.2
.8
10
Personal saving (II-6)
11
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements (1-4)
12
Undistributed corporate profits (1-15)
13
Corporate inventory valuation adjustment (1-16)
14
Capital consumption allowances (1-22)
'___
37. 7
15
Government surplus or deficit ( —) on income and product
account (III—11)
Statistical discrepancy (1-23) _
1. 7
3. 5
16
GROSS INVESTMENT
68.
GROSS SAVING
ANCY
1. Numbers i n parentheses indicate accounts and items of counter-entry in the accounts.
AND
20. 7
STATISTICAL
.0
9. 4
— 1. 5
DISCREP-
.7
68.
I. Gross National Product and National Income
PAGE
1-1. Gross National Product or Expenditure, 1929-57 (2)
118
1-2. Gross National Product or Expenditure in Constant Dollars, 1929-57 (40)
118
1-3. Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57 (45)
1-4. Gross National Product or Expenditure, Quarterly, 1946-57 (44)
120
122
1-5. Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, in Constant Dollars, 1947-57
1-6. Gross National Product by Major Type of Product, 1929-57
124
126
1-7. Gross National Product by Major Type of Product, in Constant Dollars,
1929-57
1-8. National Income by Type of Income, 1929-57 (1 and 34)
126
126
1-9. National Income by Type of Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals
at Annual Rates, 1946-57 (43)
1-10. National Income by Industry, 1929-57 (13)
1-11. National Income by Industry Division, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57
1-12. National Income and Gross National Product by Legal Form of Organization, 1929-57 (7, 12, and 36)
1-13. Gross National Product by Legal Form of Organization, in Constant Dollars,
1929-57
1-14. National Income by Corporate and Noncorporate Form of Organization,
Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57
1-15. Farm and Nonfarm Business Gross Product, in Current and Constant Dollars,
1929-57
1-16. Gross National Product Originating in General Government, Farms, and
All Other Industries, in Current and Constant Dollars, 1909-28
1-17. Relation of Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income,
1929-57 (4)
1-18. Relation of Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income,
Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57 (49)
* Figures in parentheses refer to corresponding tables in the 1954 National Income supplement.
128
130
132
134
136
136
138
138
138
140
118
NATIONAL
INCOME
AND
PRODUCT
TABLES
Table I—1.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, 1929—40
[Millions of dollars]
1929
Line
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
Gross national product
104,436
91,105
76,271
58,466
55,964
64,975
72,502
82,743
90,780
85,227
91,095
100,618
Personal consumption expenditures
78,952
70,968
61,333
49,306
46,392
51,894
56,289
62,616
67,259
64,641
67,578
71,881
9,212
37,677
32,063
7,155
34,010
29,803
5,485
28,946
26,902
3,646
22,758
22,902
3,469
22,251
20,672
4,213
26,656
21,025
5,111
29,319
21,859
6,304
32,836
23,476
6,925
35,185
25,149
5,686
33,985
24,970
6,670
35,131
25,777
7,771
37,215
26,895
16,231
10,265
5,523
913
1,391
2,888
6,277
8,404
11,747
6,661
9,309
13,155
8,707
6,183
3,968
1,876
1,431
1,709
2,299
3,281
4,403
3,960
4,757
5,452
Residential nonfarm
3,625
5,082
2,075
4,108
1,565
2,403
630
1,246
470
961
625
1,084
1,010
1,289
1,565
1,716
1,875
2,528
1,990
1,970
2,680
2,077
2,985
2,467
Other
5,850
4,465
2,839
1,593
1,589
2,304
3,066
4,169
5,095
3,644
4,180
5,531
1,674
-383
-1,284
- 2 , 556
-1,629
-1,125
912
954
2,249
-943
372
2,172
1,836
-162
-83
-300
-1,608
324
-2,590
34
-1,370
-259
195
-1,320
376
536
2,066
-1,112
1,726
523
-1,046
103
316
56
1,902
270
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
ServicesGross private domestic investment
New construction.-_
Producers' durable equipment
Change in business inventories
___
Nonfarm
Farm
Net exports of goods and services
Exports
Imports
^
_
Government purchases of goods and services.
Federal
771
690
197
169
150
429
-54
-93
62
1,109
7,034
6,263
5,448
4,758
3,641
3,444
2,474
2,305
2,402
2,252
2,975
2,546
3,265
3,319
3,539
3,632
4,553
4,491
4,336
3,227
4,432
3,544
5,355
3,846
8,482
9,182
9,218
8,078
8,031
9,764
9,990
11,816
11,712
12,816
13,320
14,073
1,311
1,410
1,537
1,480
2,018
2,991
2,931
4,815
4,552
5,280
5,157
6,170
1,344
1,432
22
1,549
12
1,484
4
2,022
4
2,997
6
2,935
4
4,818
3
4,557
5
5,286
6
7,171
7,772
7,681
6,598
6,013
6,773
7,059
7,001
7,160
7,536
1,258
3,908
9
8,163
2,223
3,956
9
7,903
.
National defense
Other
Less: Government sales
State and local
1,509
.—
Table 1-2.—Gross National Product or Expenditure in Constant Dollars, 1929-40 l
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
Line
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1930
1929
Gross national product
Personal consumption expenditures.
Durable goods
Nondurable goods..
Services
Gross private domestic investmentNew construction
Residential nonfarm.
Other..
1931
1939
1940
130.1
126.6
138.5
152.9
173.3
183.5
175.1
189.3
205.8
106.0
103.5
108.9
115.8
127.7
132.1
129.9
137.3
144.6
14.9
65.3
48.0
11.8
62.1
46.4
10.3
61.8
44.6
7.8
56.9
41.4
7.5
55.2
40.8
8.6
58.8
41.5
10.7
62.1
42.9
13.1
69.2
45.3
13.8
71.6
46.8
11.2
72.8
45.9
13.3
76.7
47.2
15.3
80.2
49.1
35.0
23.6
15.0
3.9
4.0
7.4
16.1
21.0
27.0
15.5
21.6
29.0
20.9
15.4
10.9
6.0
4.6
5.1
9.4
11.3
10.1
12.2
13.6
8.7
12.2
5.1
10.4
4.2
2.1
3.9
1.6
3.0
l.tt
3.2
3.1
3.6
4.6
4.9
5.0
6.3
5.1
5.0
6.8
5.4
7.3
6.3
3.2
-.3
-.3
-.4
1938
116.6
8.8
1. Implicit price deflators are shown in table VII-2.
1937
153.0
-.7
Federal
State and local.
1936
120.3
3.0
Government purchases of goods and services-
1935
164.5
11.1
Exports..
Imports..
1934
128.1
Change in business inventories..
Net exports of goods and services.
1933
181.8
Producers' durable equipment-.
Nonfarm.
Farm
1932
.2
.2
11.1
10.9
9.9
9.7
18.5
20.5
2.9
15.6
3.4
17.1
6.6
5.9
-1.8
-3.5
1.7
-.3
8.4
8.7
21.6
3.7
17.9
3.5
3.7
5.0
6.7
9.2
10.5
7.3
8.5
10.9
-5.6
-4.2
-2.8
2.6
2.4
5.2
-1.8
1.0
4.5
-6.3
.7
-3.5
-.7
.3
-3.1
.9
1.7
4.3
-2.0
-2.3
.4
.6
.4
3.8
.6
.3
1.1
9.5
9.2
10.5
9.4
30.1
31.1
11.0
19.1
13.1
18.0
-.6
-1.9
-2.2
3.4
1.8
-1.6
6.8
7.1
6.8
7.7
6.9
7.5
7.3
9.2
7.7
9.8
9.3
10.9
20.5
19.9
22.8
23.0
26.9
26.0
9.3
8.5
28.8
3.9
16.6
5.3
14.6
6.9
15.8
6.7
16.3
10.3
16.6
9.6
16.4
11.4
17.4
-.3
119
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
Table 1-1.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, 1941-57
[Millions of dollars]
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Line
125,822
159,133
192,513
211,393
213,558
210,663
234,289
259,426
258,054
284,599
328,975
346,999
365,385
363,112
397,469
419,214
440,328
1
81,875
89,748
100,541
109,833
121,699
147,109
165,409
178,313
181,158
195,013
209,805
219,774
232,649
238,025
256,940
269,400
284,442
o
9,659
43, 208
29,008
6,968
51, 324
31, 456
6,605
59, 259
34,677
6,764
65,368
37, 701
8,105
73, 222
40,372
15, 892
84,802
46,415
20, 593
93,382
51.434
22, 723
98, 737
56, 853
24, 584
96, 607
59, 967
30, 351
99. 801
64, 861
29, 471
110.135
70,199
29,099
115,100
75, 575
32,875
117, 961
81,813
32, 398
119,328
86, 299
39, 632
124, 762
92, 546
38,369
131,382
99,649
39, 926
137,971
106, 545
3
4
5
18,072
9,875
5,600
7,130
10,430
28,140
31,459
43,087
32,977
49,970
56,334
49,863
50,340
48,872
63,843
68,180
65,292
6
6,629
3,721
2,326
2,712
3,833
11,028
15, 254
19,454
18,813
24, 215
24, 811
25, 532
27, 588
29, 722
34,941
35, 732
36,483
7
3,510
3,119
1.715
2.006
885
1,441
815
1,897
1,100
2,733
4,752
6,276
7,535
7,719
10,122
9,332
9,642
9,171
14,100
10,115
12, 529
12, 282
12, 842
12,690
13,777
13,811
15,379
14,343
18, 705
16, 236
17, 677
18,055
17,019
19,464
8
9
6,942
4,343
4,027
5,438
7,654
10, 733
16, 667
18, 925
17, 236
18, 940
21,290
21, 264
22, 305
20,789
23,119
27,002
27, 856
10
4.501
1,811
-753
-1.020
-1,057
6,379
-462
4,708
-3,072
6,815
10,233
3,067
447
-1,639
5. 783
5,446
953
11
4,049
452
052
1,159
-577
-176
-575
-445
-595
-462
6,350
29
1,298
-1,760
2,976
1,732
-2,209
-863
6,000
815
9,057
1,176
2,146
921
1,068
-621
-2,129
490
5,486
297
5,925
-479
195
758
12
13
961
1,094
2,796
4,913
14
17, 476
16, 515
19.381
18, 287
22,955
20,159
25, 954
21,041
15
16
75,592
78,838
85,681
17
45, 282
45, 721
49,381
18
39,081
6, 559
358
40,330
5,722
331
44,347
5,456
422
19
20
21
30.310
* 33,117
36,300
22
1,124
-207
-2,245
-2,099
-1,438
1,916
9,039
3,490
3,760
587
2,376
1,318
-434
5,968
4,844
4,937
5,144
4,546
6,791
5,438
7,537
7.368
8,806
12, 792
7,876
17,900
8,861
14,505
11,015
13,958
10, 198
13,098
12,511
17, 857
15,481
17,431
16.113
16. 600
17, 034
24,751
59,717
88,617
96,529
82,867
30,498
28,382
34,536
40,159
39,029
60,460
76,044
82,830
75,254
16,923
52,027
81, 223
89,006
74, 796
20, 582
15,650
19,306
22, 241
19.348
38, 768
52, 854
57,964
47, 548
13, 794
3,173
44
49,567
2,664
204
80,384
1,480
641
88, 615
1,552
1,161
75,923
1,031
2,158
18,791
4.486
2,695
11,360
5,417
1,127
11,578
8,231
503
13. 570
8,853
182
14, 257
5,202
111
33,86-1
5,213
309
46, 408
6,717
271
49, 289
8.989
314
41.189
6,674
315
7,828
7,690
7,394
7, 523
8,071
9.916
12, 732
15, 230
17,918
19, 681
21, 692
23,190
24, 866
27, 706
Table 1-2.—Gross National Product or Expenditure in Constant Dollars, 1941-571
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1954
1953
1955
1956
1957
Line
1
238.1
266.9
296.7
317.9
314.0
282.5
282.3
293.1
292.7
318.1
341.8
353.5
369.0
363.1
392.7
402.2
407.0
154.3
150.8
154.6
160.2
171.4
192.3
195.6
199.3
204.3
216.8
218.5
224.2
235.1
238.0
256.0
263.7
270.3
2
17.6
85.6
51.1
10.9
87.3
52.6
9.4
90.0
55.2
8.6
94.0
57.6
9.8
101.4
60.2
19.4
107.6
65.3
23.3
105.3
67.0
24.6
105.1
69.6
26.3
106.3
71.7
32.1
109.2
75.5
29.2
111.2
78.2
28.5
115.0
80.8
33.1
118.3
83.7
32.4
119.3
86.3
39.6
125. 4
91.0
37.9
130.2
95.6
38.1
132.7
99.4
3
4
5
36.7
18.8
10.7
12.3
17.0
42.4
41.5
49.8
38.5
55.9
57.7
50.4
50.6
48.9
62.5
63.1
57.8
6
15.3
7.8
4.4
4.8
6.6
17.3
19.9
22.7
22.3
27.4
26.0
26.0
27.6
29.7
33.9
32.8
32.3
7
7.9
7.4
3.6
4.2
1.7
2.7
1.4
3.4
1.8
4.8
7.3
10.0
9.6
10.3
11.4
11.2
11.2
11.1
15.5
11.9
12.9
13.2
12.8
13.2
13.6
14.0
15.4
14.3
18.2
15.7
16.4
16.4
15.5
16.9
8
9
21.7
10
12.9
7.4
6.9
9.2
12.7
16.1
8.6
3.6
-.6
-1.7
-2.4
9.0
7.6
1.0
1.6
2.0
-.5
.0
-1.1
-.6
-1.6
-.8
9.1
-.1
22.8
19.8
21.3
22.0
21.8
22.5
20.8
22.5
24.8
24.1
.1
4.4
-3.6
7.2
9.7
2.6
.5
-1.6
6.1
5.6
1.4
11
1.4
-1.6
3.0
1.4
-2.6
-1.0
6.5
.7
9.0
2.2
.4
1. 1
-.7
-2.1
.5
5.4
.7
5.5
.0
.1
1.4
12
13
-
-.6
-2.9
-6.6
-6.7
-5.6
3.8
8.0
2.0
2.6
.2
2.2
1.2
-.9
1.0
.9
2.4
3.9
14
10.6
11.3
7.6
10.5
6.7
13.2
7.4
14.1
9.8
15.3
15.8
12.0
19.2
11.1
14.7
12.8
15.1
12.4
14.5
14.2
17.3
15.1
16.9
15.7
16.4
17.3
17.5
16.5
19.2
18.3
22.2
19.8
24.3
20.5
15
16
47.7
100.1
137.9
152.2
131.2
43.9
37.2
42.1
47.2
45.1
63.3
77.7
84.3
75.3
73.2
72.9
75.0
17
30.7
16.9
84.7
15.4
123. 9
14.0
138.4
13.8
117.1
14.0
28.2
15.8
19.4
17.8
22.9
19.2
25.3
21.9
21.6
23.5
39.3
24.1
53.3
24.5
58.8
25.5
47.5
27.7
43.5
29.7
42.0
30.9
42.7
32.3
18
19
120
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table 1-3.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-47
[Billions of dollars]
1947
Line
I
III
IV
Year
III
IV
Year
Gross national product
198.0
206.3
217.1
221.2
210.7
226.0
230.0
235.6
245.1
234.3
Personal consumption expenditures
137.3
143.0
152.7
155.4
147.1
159.4
163.9
167.2
171.2
165.4
12.7
80.8
43.9
14.9
82.6
45.5
17.4
87.7
47.5
18.6
88.1
48.7
15.9
84.8
46.4
19.1
90.7
49.6
20.3
93.0
50.6
20.8
94.2
52.2
22.1
95.7
53.4
20.6
93.4
51.4
22.1
29.0
29.6
31.8
28.1
29.8
29.2
29.6
36.7
31.5
8.5
10.8
12.2
12.6
11.0
13.3
13.8
15.6
17.9
15.3
3.5
4.9
4.6
6.2
5.3
6.9
5.6
7.0
4.8
6.3
6.2
7.0
6.3
7.4
7.6
8.0
9.6
8.3
7.5
7.7
Durable goods
Nondurable good s
Services
Gross private domestic investment
New construction
Residential nonfarm
7.7
9.4
11.4
14.5
10.7
16.1
16.4
16.7
17.4
16.7
Producers' durable equipment
5.9
8.8
6.1
4.7
6.4
.4
-1.0
-2.7
1.4
-.5
Change in business inventories—total
6.0
8.7
5.9
4.8
6.4
1.5
1.5
-.3
2.4
1.5
3.8
4.5
6.5
4.9
4.9
9.0
9.4
9.9
7.9
9.0
11.1
7.3
12.4
7.9
14.4
7.9
13.2
12.8
7.9
1^4
18.4
9.0
18.5
8.6
17.2
9.3
17.9
8.9
34.9
29.7
28.3
27.5
28.8
29.4
28.4
25.9
20.2
18.1
15.9
15.7
15.6
24 5
39
2 5
19.4
4.4
3.6
16.3
4.9
3.1
18.1
15.0
4.8
1.7
15.1
10.3
6.1
1.3
11.5
5.1
11.4
5.4
1.1
9.5
10.2
11.0
10.7
6.1
.9
12.9
Other
Nonfarm only
Net exports of goods and services
Exports
Imports
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal
National defense
Other
Less: Government sales
State and local
8.3
29.1
30.5
20.6
18.8
4.5
2.7
8.5
27.8
15.9
13.0
4.3
1.4
11.9
12.4
.9
13.7
12.7
Table 1-3.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1952-53
[Billions of dollars]
1952
Line
1953
II
III
IV
Year
III
IV
Year
Gross national product
341 0
341.3
347.0
358.6
347.0
364.5
368.8
367.1
361.0
365.4
Personal consumption expenditures
214 6
217.7
219.6
227.2
219.8
230.9
233.3
234.1
232.3
232.6
27. 7
113. 3
73. 6
29.1
113.9
74.7
27.5
115.9
76.2
32.1
117.2
77.9
29.1
115.1
75.6
33.2
118.1
79.6
33.4
118.6
81.2
33.6
117.8
82.8
31.2
117.4
83.7
32.9
118.0
81.8
52,.2
45.6
49.1
52.6
49.9
52.0
52.9
51.1
45.2
50.3
25. 2
25.4
25.4
26.1
25.5
26.9
27.8
27.7
27.9
27.6
Residential nonfarm
12, 4
12. 8
12.7
12.7
12.8
12.6
13.4
12.7
12.8
12.7
13.7
13.2
14.0
13.8
13.8
14.0
13.7
14.2
13.8
13.8
Other
21 9
22.4
19.4
21.2
21.3
22.5
22.0
22.6
21.9
22.3
Producers' durable equipment
5. 1
-2.2
4.3
5.3
3. 1
2.5
3. 1
.7
-4.6
.4
Change in business inventories—total
40
-3.3
3.4
4.7
2.1
3.0
4.0
1.5
-4.3
1.1
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services
Gross private domestic investment
New construction
Nonfarm only
Net exports of goods and services
Exports
Imports
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal
National defense
Other
Less: Government sales
State and local
3,. 1
2.8
.1
-.7
1.3
-.3
-.7
.0
-.4
19. 0
15. 9
18.3
15.5
16.0
16.0
16.4
17.1
17.4
16.1
16.5
16.7
16.5
17.2
16.7
17.5
16.7
16.7
16.6
17.0
82.8
71. 1
75.2
78.2
79.5
76.0
81.8
83.3
82.7
83.5
48. 5
52.1
55.0
55.8
52.9
57.4
58.9
57.7
57.8
58.0
43. 0
5. 8
3
46.2
6.2
.3
47.0
8.1
.2
49.3
6.7
.2
46.4
6.7
.3
49.8
8.0
.4
50.5
8.7
.3
49.3
8.7
.3
47.6
10.5
.3
22, 5
23.1
23.2
23.7
23.2
24.4
24.3
49.3
9.0
.3
24.9
121
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
Table 1-3.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1948-51
[Billions of dollars]
1949
1948
II
Line
III
IV
259.8
256.4
258.8
257.0
258.1
265.8
274.4
293.2
304.3
284.6
317.8
326.4
333.8
338.1
329.0
179.0
181.1
180.5
184.0
181.2
185.7
189.9
204.4
200.1
195.0
211.5
205.5
208.8
213.4
209.8
2
22.7
98.7
56.9
22.4
97.8
58.8
24.5
97.1
59.5
25.1
95.3
60.1
26.3
96.3
61.5
24.6
96.6
60.0
26.8
96.2
62.6
27.9
97.7
64.3
35.5
103.3
65.7
31.2
102.0
66.9
30.4
99.8
64.9
33.0
110.2
68.3
28.0
108.1
69.4
28.5
109.5
70.8
28.4
112.7
72.3
29.5
110.1
70.2
3
4
5
43,9
43.1
36.8
30.8
33.7
30.6
33.0
39.8
46.9
51.1
61.4
50.0
56.9
61.6
56,3
51.0
56.3
6
18.5
18.2
18.6
19.9
18.8
21.6
23.6
25.6
25.3
24.2
25.7
25.0
24.5
24.5
24.8
7
8.9
9.3
9.6
9.0
10.9
9.0
9.6
9.2
12.2
9.4
13.8
9.8
15.4
10.3
14.4
10.9
14,1
10.1
14.1
11.6
12.5
12.5
11.8
12.7
12.1
12.4
12.5
12.3
8
9
III
IV
257.7
264.0
265.9
259.4
174.7
177.5
180.2
180.8
178.3
21.6
98.1
55.0
22.6
98.7
56. 2
23.6
99.0
57.6
23.1
99.2
58.5
39.9
43.2
45.2
249.5
Year
II
Year
II
i
1951
1950
I
I
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
1
18.4
19.8
20.1
19.4
19.5
9.7
8.6
18.2
10.5
9.2
10.4
9.7
9.7
9.7
10.1
9.3
9.0
9.4
18.3
19.0
20.1
18.9
18.3
17.9
16.8
16.0
17.2
15.7
18.4
20.6
21.1
18.9
20.7
21.3
21.6
21.5
21.3
10
3.3
5.1
6. 1
4.3
4.7
.0
-5.3
-1.7
-5.3
-3.1
2.5
4.9
4.9
15.0
6.8
10.5
15.2
10.2
4.9
10.2
11
2.3
2.9
3.9
2.8
3.0
.6
-4.1
-.6
-4.7
-2.2
2.2
4.2
3.8
13.8
6.0
9.3
14.0
9.1
3.8
9.1
12
4.8
3.3
2.8
3.0
3.5
4.6
4.6
3.7
2.1
3.8
2.0
1.1
-.6
-.2
.6
-.2
1.7
3.9
4.2
2.4
13
15.5
10.7
14.2
10.9
14.2
11.5
14.1
11.0
14.5
11.0
15.2
10.6
15.0
10.3
13.6
9.9
12.1
10.0
14.0
10.2
12.5
10.5
12.4
11.3
13.4
14.0
14.2
14.4
13.1
12.5
15.9
16.1
17.7
16.0
18.9
15.0
18.9
14.8
17.9
15.5
14
15
30.1
33.7
35.8
38.2
34.5
39.5
39.9
40.9
40.3
40.2
38.4
36.5
38.2
43.0
39.0
49.5
57.7
64.9
69.5
60.5
16
15.9
19.0
20.3
22.1
19.3
22.5
22.3
22.6
21.6
22.2
19.1
17.2
18.4
22.7
19.3
28.7
36. 1
42.9
47.4
38.8
17
11.2
5.8
1.1
11.3
8.1
.4
11.8
8.8
.3
12.1
10.2
.2
11.6
8.2
.5
13.5
9.3
.3
13.7
8.9
.2
14.1
8.6
.1
13.0
8.7
.1
13.6
8.9
.2
12.6
6.6
.1
12.0
5.2
.1
14. 1
4.4
.1
18.3
4.5
.2
14.3
5.2
.1
24.3
4.5
.2
31.2
5. 1
.2
38.1
5.2
.4
41.8
6.0
.4
33.9
5.2
.3
18
19
20
14.2
14.7
15.6
16.1
15.2
17.0
17.6
18.3
18.7
17.9
19.3
19.3
19.8
20.3
19.7
20.9
21.6
21.9
22.1
21.7
21
Table I—3.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1954—57
[Billions of dollars]
III
IV
Year
1957
1956
1955
1954
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
II
III
Line
IV
Year
360.0
358.9
362.0
370.8
363.1
384.3
393.0
403.4
408.9
397.5
410.8
414.9
420.5
430.5
419.2
430.3
441.2
445. 6
438.9
410.3
1
233.7
236. 5
238.7
243.2
238.0
249.4
254.3
260.9
263.3
256.9
265.2
267.2
269.7
275.4
269.4
270.8
282.5
288.3
287.2
284.4
2
31.2
117.9
84.6
32.3
119.6
33.9
121.0
88.3
32.4
119.3
86. 3
38.2
121.2
90.0
39.1
123. 7
91.6
41.4
126.1
93.4
39.8
128.1
95.3
39.6
124.8
92.5
38.7
129.6
96.9
37.8
130. 9
98.6
37.5
131.6
100.6
39.5
133.4
-102.5
38.4
131.4
99.6
40.2
135. 5
104.1
39.5
137.1
105. 9
40.4
140.5
107.4
39.6
138.8
108.7
39.9
138.0
106.5
3
4
5
46.6
32.2
118.8
85. 5
47.2
48.8
52.3
48.9
58.8
63.1
65.4
67.6
63.8
68.0
67.7
68.1
68.8
68.2
65.9
67.0
66.7
61.5
65. 3
6
27.8
28.9
30.2
31.6
29.7
33.9
34.9
35.4
35. 4
34.9
35.2
3*. 8
35.8
36.2
35.7
36.1
36.1
36.6
37.1
36.5
7
13.7
14.1
14.7
14.2
15. S
14.4
17.0
14.6
15.4
14.3
18.5
15.4
18.9
16.0
18.9
16.5
18.4
17.0
18.7
16. 2
17.8
17.4
17.7
18.1
17.6
18.3
17.7
17.7
18.1
17.2
18.9
16. 5
19.6
16.9
19.7
17.6
19.6
17.0
19.5
8
9
2L4
20.9
20.7
19.9
20.8
20.5
22.1
24.4
25 4
23.1
25. 9
26.6
27.3
27.0
28.7
28.1
28.0
26.7
27.9
10
-2.6
-2.7
-2.1
.8
-1.6
4.4
6.1
5.7
6.7
5.8
6.9
5.4
4.9
5.4
1. 1
2.9
2.2
-2.3
1.0
11
-2.8
-3.2
-2.8
.2
-2.1
3.8
5.7
5.5
6. 7
5.5
7.4
6.2
5.3
5.9
.6
2.0
1.3
-3.1
.2
12
.4
2.3
1.0
1.5
.7
1.3
.9
1.1
.8
2.8
3.2
5.6
6.0
4.8
3.3
4.9
13
18.7
16.5
17.5
16.5
18.7
17.2
18.6
17.9
20.0
20.3
19.4
10.4
18.3
23.6
20.4
4.4
24.8
20.4
2.8
23.0
20.2
26.4
20.8
26.6
20.6
26.0
21.2
24.9
21.6
26.0
21.0
14
15
75.3
74.6
74.9
16
.3
16.0
15.7
17.9
17.1
17.3
16.8
79.4
74.4
74.1
73.0
52. 9
47.1
45. 9
44.4
47.5
45.1
44.7
44.8
S. 4
.3
26.5
41.5
5.9
.3
40.0
6.2
.3
38.4
6.2
.3
41.2
6.7
.3
38.8
6.2
.4
27.3
28.2
28.7
27.7
39.2
6.2
.3
29.5
30.2
18.7
75.8
45.3
39.2
6.5
.4
30.5
20.9
20. 1
18.4
28.2
4.4
4.6
77.1
75.6
76.8
22. 5
19.8
77.2
79.5
81.8
78.8
85.0
85.7
85.8
86.9
85.7
46.1
45. 3
44.8
44. 5
46.1
47.5
45.7
49.1
49.7
49.7
49.1
49.4
17
39.1
7.4
.4
39.1
6.6
.4
39.1
6.1
.3
39.1
5.7
.4
41.0
42.1
5.7
.3
40.3
5.7
.3
43.7
5.8
.4
44.9
5.1
.3
44.9
5. 2
.5
43.9
5.7
.5
44.3
5.5
.4
18
19
20
31.0
30.3
32.0
32.7
33.4
33.1
35.9
36.0
36.1
37.8
36.3
5.4
.3
122
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table 1-4.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Quarterly, 1946-47
[Billions of dollars]
1946
Line
II
1947
IV
III
Year
III
IV
Year
48.0
50.5
54.0
58.2
210.7
54.6
56.5
58.0
65.2
234.3
32.3
35.5
37.1
42.3
147.1
37.6
40.6
40.7
46.6
165.4
2.7
18. 6
11.0
3.7
20.3
11.5
4.1
21.2
11.8
5.4
24.7
12.1
15.9
84.8
46.4
4.2
20.9
12.4
5.1
22.7
12.8
4.9
22.8
13.0
6.4
26.9
13.3
20.6
93.4
51.4
6.1
6.2
8.6
7.2
28.1
8.0
6.4
8.1
8.9
31.5
1.8
2.7
3.4
3.2
11.0
2.8
3.5
4.4
4.6
15.3
Residential nonfarm..
Other
l!l
1.1
1.5
1.5
1.9
1.4
1.8
4.8
6.3
1.2
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.1
Producers' durable equipment
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.5
10.7
4.0
4.3
4.0
4.4
Change in business inventories—total.
2.8
1.1
2.4
.5
6.4
1.2
-1.3
-.3
2.3
1.1
2.4
.6
6.4
1.4
-.7
.3
.2
.8
1.4
1.4
1.3
4.9
2.2
2.6
2.2
2.1
3.4
2.0
3.5
2.1
12.8
7.9
4.3
4.8
2.2
4.3
2.1
4.5
2.4
9.0
17.9
8.9
Gross national product
Personal consumption expendituresDurable goods
Nondurable goods.
Services
..
Gross private domestic investment.
New construction
Nonfarm only
Net exports of goods and services
Exports..
Imports..
3.3
1.9
2.7
1.9
Government purchases of goods and services.
8.7
Federal
6.1
1.0
.6
National defense
Other
Less: Government sales_
7.5
7.0
7.3
30.5
5.1
4.5
4.5
20.6
4.8
1.1
.9
4.1
1.2
3.7
1.2
.4
18.8
4.5
2.7
2.8
9.9
2.4
State and local.
2.1
7.5
7.7
16.7
-.5
1.3
6.9
7.0
7.6
28.4
3.8
4.0
3.3
1.1
.3
3.8
4.0
15.7
2.6
1.5
.3
2.5
1.5
.2
2.9
1.3
.2
11.4
5.4
1.1
2.8
3.1
3.2
3.6
12.7
6.9
Table 1-4.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Quarterly, 1952-53
[Billions of dollars]
1952
1953
Line
I
II
III
Year
IV
I
II
Year
IV
III
Gross national product
82.9
84.5
85.6
94.1
347.0
88.1
91.9
91.0
94.4
365.4
Personal consumption expenditures
50.7
54.1
53.4
61.5
219.8
54.7
58.1
57.2
62.6
232.6
6.1
26. 1
18.6
7.4
27.9
18.8
6.6
27.9
18.8
9.0
33.1
19.4
29.1
115.1
75.6
7.4
27.3
20.0
8.6
29.0
20.5
8.2
28.5
20.5
8.8
33.1
20.8
13.8
10.7
12.7
12.6
49.9
13.5
12.9
13.3
10.7
32.9
118.0
81.8
50.3
5. i
6.4
7.0
6.7
25.5
5.7
7.0
7.7
7.1
27.6
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.2
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.2
12.8
12.7
2.8
3.0
3.6
3.4
3.9
3.8
3.5
3.6
13.8
13.8
22.3
Durable goods
N ondurable goods
Services
Gross private domestic investment
New construction
Residential nonfarm
5.2
5.9
4.5
5.7
21.3
5.1
5.9
5.4
5.8
Producers' durable equipment
3.3
-1.6
1.1
.3
3.1
2.6
-.1
.2
-2.3
.4
Change in business inventories—total
3.0
-1.9
.9
.1
2.1
2.7
.1
.4
-2.2
1.1
.9
.6
-.2
1.3
—.1
-.1
4.8
4.0
4.5
3.9
Other
Nonfarm only
Net exports of goods and services
Exports
Imports
Government purchases of goods and services.
Federal
National defense
Other
Less: Government sales
State and local
-.4
.2
-.4
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.2
17.4
16.1
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.0
4.4
4.3
4.1
16.6
17.0
82.8
17.4
19.0
19.7
19.9
76.0
20.0
21.0
20.9
21.0
12.1
13.1
13.8
13.8
52.9
14.3
14.9
14.5
14.4
58.0
10.7
1.5
.1
11.7
1.5
.1
11.8
2.0
.1
12.2
1.7
.1
46.4
6.7
.3
12.4
2.0
.1
12.7
2.2
.1
12.4
2.2
.1
11.8
2.6
.1
49.3
9.0
.3
5.3
5.8
5.9
6.1
23.2
5.7
6.2
6.4
6.6
24.9
123
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
Table I—4.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Quarterly, 1948—51
[Billions of dollars]
I
Year
IV
III
II
I
III
II
1951
1950
1949
1948
Year
IV
I
II
III
IV
Year
Line
I
II
III
IV
Year
60.3
63.1
65.4
70.6
259.4
62.5
63.1
64.3
68.1
258.1
63.9
67.5
73.1
80.1
284.6
77.0
80.6
82.7
88.7
329.0
41.4
43.9
44.0
49.1
178.3
42.0
45.2
44.2
49.8
181.2
43.8
47.2
50.0
54.0
195.0
50.1
51.0
50.9
57.7
209.8
:
4.8
22.8
13.8
5.7
24.0
14.2
5.7
24.0
14.3
6.6
27.9
14.6
22.7
98.7
56.9
4.9
22.4
14.8
6.2
24.0
15.0
6.2
23.1
14.9
7.4
27.1
15.3
24.6
96.6
60.0
5.9
22.1
15.7
7.1
24.0
16.2
8.8
25.0
16.3
8.6
28.7
16.7
30.4
99.8
64.9
7.3
25.5
17.2
7.2
26.4
17.5
6.9
26.5
17.5
8.0
31.7
18.0
29.5
110.1
70.2
3
4
5
10.3
9.7
12.1
10.9
43.1
9.7
6.5
9.3
7.4
33.0
10.5
10.5
13.8
15.1
50.0
14.9
14.4
14.7
12.3
56.3
6
3.8
5.0
5.6
5.0
19.5
3.9
4.6
5.2
5.1
18.8
4.5
6.0
7.2
6.5
24.2
5.5
6.3
6.8
6.3
24.8
7
1.9
1.9
2.7
2.3
3.0
2.6
2.5
2.5
10.1
9.3
1.8
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.5
2.8
2.3
9.6
9.2
2.5
2.1
3.5
2.5
4.4
2.8
3.7
2.8
14.1
10.1
2.9
2.6
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.1
3.1
12.5
12.3
8
9
4.2
4.7
4.6
5.5
18.9
4.2
4.6
4.1
4.6
5.0
5.7
18.9
4.9
5.5
5.1
5.8
21.3
10
19
4
47
1.6
—2.6
1.6
29
68
4.6
26
28
2
10 2
11
1.4
3.0
1.7
-2.3
2.6
6.0
4.3
2.3
2.6
9.1
12
1.1
1.3
.6
2
.6
.7
1.3
2.4
13
23
2.1
-.5
4.4
17.2
3.7
-2.1
-3.1
2.3
.3
-1.9
-2.2
2.2
-.2
1.3
.7
.6
3 8
.3
.5
-.3
I
1.2
1.0
.5
.9
3.5
3.8
2.7
3.7
2.7
3.3
2.8
3.7
2.8
14.5
11.0
3.7
2.6
3.9
2.5
3.2
2.5
3.2
2.5
14.0
10.2
3.0
2.6
3.3
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.6
13.1
12.5
3.9
4.0
4.6
4.0
4.4
3.8
4.9
3.7
17.9
15.5
14
15
7.4
8.6
8.8
9.7
34.5
9.7
10.1
10.1
10.3
40.2
9.3
9.3
9.6
10.9
39.0
12.1
14.6
16.3
17.4
60.5
16
4.0
4.8
4.9
5.6
19.3
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
22.2
4.7
4.3
4.6
5.6
19.3
7.1
9.1
10.8
11.8
38.8
17
2.9
1.5
.3
2.8
2.0
1
2.8
2.2
1
3.1
2.6
.1
11.6
8.2
.5
3.4
2.3
.1
3.4
2.2
3.4
2.2
3.3
2.2
13.6
8.9
.2
3.1
1.6
3.0
1.3
3.5
1.1
4.6
1.1
14.3
5.2
.1
6.0
1.1
7.9
1.3
9.6
1.3
.1
10.4
1.5
.1
33.9
5.2
.3
18
19
20
3.4
3.8
3.9
4.1
15.2
4.0
4.5
4.6
4.8
17.9
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.2
19.7
5.0
5.5
5.6
5.7
21.7
21
Table 1-4.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Quarterly, 1954-57
[Billions of dollars]
1955
1954
Year
I
II
87.1
89.5
89.6
97.0
55.4
59.0
58.1
65.5
7.1
27.0
21.3
8.2
29.3
21.5
7.6
28.9
21.5
12.3
11.3
5.9
7.3
2.8
3.2
3.8
3.5
1956
Year
I
II
1957
Year
II
I
Line
Year
I
II
III
IV
363.1
92.7
97.7
100.0
107.1
397.5
99.1
102.5
104.5
113.1
419.2
104.6
109.6
110.5
115.6
440.3
1
238.0
59.2
63.3
63.6
70.9
256.9
63.1
66.0
66.0
74.3
269.4
66.3
70.2
70.6
77.3
284.4
2
9.5
34.1
21.9
32.4
119.3
86.3
8.7
27.8
22.6
10.0
30. 3
23. Q
9.8
30.5
23.4
11.1
36. 2
23.6
39.6
124.8
92.5
8.8
29.9
24.4
9.6
31.7
24.7
8.9
31.9
25.2
11.1
37.8
25.4
38.4
131. 4
99.6
9.2
31.0
26.2
10.0
33.6
26.6
9.6
34.1
26.8
11.1
39.3
26.9
39.9
138.0
106.5
3
4
5
12.8
12.4
48.9
15.1
15.2
17.2
16.3
63.8
17.2
16.3
17.9
16.9
68.2
16.4
16.3
17.4
15.2
65.3
6
8.4
8.1
29.7
7.2
8.9
9.8
9.1
34.9
7.5
9.1
10.0
9.2
35.7
7.7
9.2
10.1
9.5
36.5
7
4.5
3.9
4.3
3.7
15.4
14.3
3.7
3.4
4.9
4.0
5.3
4.5
4.7
4.3
18.7
16.2
3.6
3.9
4.6
4.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.7
17.7
18.1
3.4
4.3
4.3
4.8
4.8
5.3
4.5
5.0
17.0
19.5
8
9
7.6
III
IV
IV
III
IV
III
4.9
5.6
4.9
5.3
20.8
4.6
5.8
5.9
6.7
23.1
5.8
6.9
6.6
27.0
6.3
7.4
6.9
7.3
27.9
10
1.4
-1.7
-.5
Q
-1.6
3.3
.5
1.4
.5
5.8
3.9
.3
1.3
5.4
2.4
-.3
.4
-1.6
1.0
11
1.4
-1.8
— .7
-2.1
3.1
.4
1.4
.5
5. 5
4.0
.5
1.4
5.9
2.2
— .5
.2
— 1.8
.2
12
.8
1.0
.4
.2
.5
1.1
.3
.7
.4
1.5
2.8
1.5
1.4
.7
1.3
4.9
13
5.8
5.1
5.6
5.2
6.4
4.9
23.0
20.2
6.6
5.1
6.8
5.4
6.4
5.2
21.8
26.0
21.0
14
15
85.7
16
.3
i
— 1.1
3.9
3.9
4.6
4.4
4.1
4.2
4.8
4.1
17.5
16.5
4.6
4.2
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.7
5.3
4.7
19.4
18.3
5.2
4.9
19.4
18.8
18.7
18.3
75.3
18.1
19.0
19.1
19.3
75.6
18.6
19.5
20.2
20.5
78.8
20.5
21.7
6.1
5.4
21.8
13.2
11.9
11.5
11.0
47.5
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.4
45.3
11.1
11.2
11.6
11.8
45.7
12.2
12.5
12.5
12.2
49.4
17
11.1
2.1
.1
10.5
1.5
.1
10.0
1.6
.1
9.5
1.5
.1
41.2
6.7
.3
9.8
1.5
.1
9.8
1.6
.1
9.8
1.6
.1
9.7
1.8
.1
39.1
6.6
.4
9.7
1.5
.1
9.9
1.4
.1
10.3
1.4
.1
10.4
1.4
.1
40.3
5.7
.3
10.9
1.4
.1
11.3
1.3
.1
11.3
1.3
.1
10.9
1.4
.1
44.3
5.5
.4
18
19
20
6.2
7.0
7.2
7.3
27.7
6.9
7.7
7.8
7.9
30.3
7.4
8.3
8.6
8.7
33.1
8.3
9.2
9.3
9.6
36.3
21
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve
Bank 0—59
of St. Louis9
466759
124
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table 1-5.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, in Constant Dollars, 1947—48 ]
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
1947
1948
Line
IV
III
Year
I
II
III
Gross national product
278.4
280.4
282.9
287.2
282.3
286.4
293.3
Personal consumption expenditures
192.5
196.1
196.9
197.0
195.6
198.1
199.0
21.8
104.7
65.9
23.1
106. 4
66. 5
24.7
104.3
68.0
23.3
105.3
67.0
24.0
105.3
68.9
24.8
104.9
69.3
40.6
39.3
23.5
105.8
67.5
39.2
46.4
41.5
47.4
50.7
18.4
18.3
20.2
22.3
19.9
22.0
23. 1
Residential nonfarm.
Other
8.6
9.9
8.2
10. 0
9.6
10.5
11.6
10.7
9.6
10.3
11.4
10.7
12.0
11.2
Producers' durable equipment
21.5
21.6
21.6
22.1
21.7
22.8
22.6
.6
-.5
-2.5
2.0
-.1
2.7
4.9
1.4
1.8
-.3
2.9
1.4
1.9
3.1
Durable goods
Nondurable goods..
Services
Gross private domestic investment.
New construction
Change in business inventories—total
Nonfarm only
Net exports of goods and services
Government purchases of goods and services.
Federal
State and local.
8.5
8.7
8.8
6.2
8.0
2.9
1.7
36.8
36.3
38.0
37.6
37.2
37.9
42.0
19.6
17.2
18.7
17.6
20.0
18.0
19.1
18.5
19.4
17.8
19.2
18.7
22.9
19.1
24.1
19.4
1. Implicit price deflators are shown in table VII-3.
Table I—5.—Gross National Product or Expenditure,
Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, in Constant Dollars, 1953—54l
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
1954
1953
Line
III
IV
Year
IV
III
Year
Gross national product
368.9
373.2
370.2
363.9
369.0
360.4
359.5
362.1
370.1
363.1
Personal consumption expenditures
234.0
236.2
236.0
234.1
235.1
233.4
236.4
239.0
243.2
238.0
33.0
118. 1
82.8
33. 5
119.2
83.6
33.7
118.1
84.1
32.1
117.7
84.3
33.1
118.3
31.2
117.4
84.9
32.2
118.6
85.6
32.4
119.8
86.8
33.9
121.5
87.9
32.4
119.3
86.3
52.8
53.0
51.0
45.4
83.7
46.9
47.0
48.9
52.2
48.9
27. 1
27. 6
27.6
27.8
50.6
27.9
28.9
30.2
31.5
29.7
Residential nonfarm^
Other
13.6
13.5
13.8
13.8
13.5
14.1
13.5
14.3
27.6
13.6
14.0
13.7
14.2
14.8
14.1
15.8
14.4
16.9
14.6
15.4
14.3
Producers' durable equipment
23.1
22.2
22.2
22.5
21.5
20.9
20.7
19.9
2.6
3.2
-4.6
.5
-2.5
-2.9
-2.0
3.2
4. 1
1.5
-4.3
1. 1
-2.6
-3.4
-2.7
.1
-.9
-.1
.9
.6
2.4
1.0
84.3
58.8
25.5
80.1
75.2
73.6
72.2
75.3
53.1
27.0
47.7
27.5
45.5
28.1
43.9
28.3
47.5
27.7
Durable goods
Nondurable goods.
Services
Gross private domestic investment.
New construction
Change in business inventories—total
Nonfarm only
Net exports of goods and services. .
-.8
-1.1
-1.2
-.5
Government purchases of goods and services
83.0
85.1
84.4
84.9
57.9
25. 1
60. 0
25.1
58.8
25.6
58.7
26.2
Federal
State and local..
1. Implicit price deflators are shown in table VII-3.
20.8
-1.6
-2.1
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
125
Table 1-5.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, in Constant Dollars, 1949—52 l
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
1949
1952
1951
1950
Line
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
291.5
290.3
295.6
293.0
292.7
302.7
312.0
325.6
331.6
318.1
334.0
340.0
346. 3
346.9
341.8
349.6
349.3
352.6
362.3
353.5
1
199.9
203.6
204.8
209.0
204.3
210.7
214.2
225.6
217.0
216.8
222.3
214.5
217.5
219.8
218.5
220.0
222.7
223.8
230.2
224.2
2
23.7
105. 9
70.4
26.0
106. 4
71.2
27.1
105. 6
72.1
28.5
107.3
73.2
26.3
106. 3
71.7
29.0
107.9
73.8
29.8
108.9
75.4
37.3
111.9
76.3
32.2
108.1
76.7
32.1
109.2
75.5
33. 0
112 0
77.2
27.8
109. 2
77.6
28. 1
110.9
78.6
27 7
112.7
79.4
29. 2
111.2
78.2
27.0
113.2
79.8
28.4
114. 1
80.2
27.0
115.8
81.0
31.6
116.7
81.9
28.5
115.0
80.8
3
4
5
41.9
35.8
39.8
36.4
38.5
46.2
53.8
56.5
66.3
55.9
59.1
62.7
57.7
51.9
57.7
52.7
46.0
49.5
53.2
50.4
6
21.3
21.4
22.5
23.9
22.3
25.3
27.3
28.3
28 0
27.4
27.6
26.2
25. 6
25. 3
2fi.O
25. 7
25. 8
25.7
26.5
26.0
7
10. 1
11.2
10.3
11.1
11.5
11.0
12.8
11.1
11.2
11.1
14.0
11.3
15. 5
11.8
16.5
11.8
15.4
12.6
15.5
11.9
14.8
12.8
12.9
13.4
12.0
13.5
12.1
13.2
12.9
13.2
12.4
13.3
12.6
13.2
12.8
13.0
13.4
13.1
12.8
13.2
8
9
21.0
20.4
19.3
18.5
19.8
18.2
21.1
23.0
22.8
21.3
21.5
22.0
22.3
22.2
22.0
22.5
22.9
20. 0
21.8
21.8
10
-.4
-6.0
-2.0
-6.0
-3.6
2.7
5.4
5.2
15.5
7. 2
10.0
14.5
9.8
4.5
9.7
4.6
-2.7
3.8
4.9
2.6
11
4. 1
12
.4
-4.6
-.8
-5.4
-2.6
2.4
4.8
14.5
6.5
9.2
13.7
9.2
3.9
9.0
4.0
-3.3
3.3
4.7
2.2
3.4
3.4
2.8
.9
2.6
1.1
.6
-.7
.0
.2
.0
1.8
3.6
3.6
2.2
3.5
2.8
-.2
-u.
1.2
13
46.3
47.4
48.2
46.8
47.2
44.6
43.5
44.2
48.3
45.1
52.5
61.1
67.6
71.6
63.3
73.4
77.7
79.5
80.0
77.7
14
25.6
20.7
25.8
21.6
25.9
22.4
23.8
23.0
25.3
21.9
21.1
23.6
20.0
23.5
20.7
23.5
24.7
23.6
21.6
23.5
28.8
23.8
36.9
24.1
43.3
24.2
47.4
24. 1
39.3
24.1
49.1
2,3
53.2
24.5
55. 2
24.4
55. 3
53.3
24.5
15
16
Table 1-5.—Gross National Product or Expenditure, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, in Constant Dollars, 1955-57
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
1956
1957
Line
II
III
IV
Year
IV
III
Year
1
II
IV
III
Year
382.2
389.5
397.5
401.1
392.7
399.6
400.4
401.4
407.1
402.2
107.9
109. 3
109.1
401.2
107.0
248.7
253.7
259.9
261.8
256.0
262.7
262.9
262.7
266. 6
263.7
268.5
269. 3
272.9
270.4
270.3
37.9
121.6
89.2
39. 0
124.3
90.4
41.5
126.7
91.7
39.9
128.9
92.9
39. 6
125.4
91.0
38.8
130.0
93. 9
37. 5
130. 3
95. 0
36. 8
129.7
96. 3
38. 4
130. 8
97.4
'M. 9
130. 2
95. 6
38.7
131.6
UK. 2
Al .'5
3S. 5
I
100.0
37. 6
132.4
100.3
38. 1
132. 7
09.4
58.5
62.3
63.9
65.2
62.5
61.5
62.8
62.8
59.3
59.5
58. 1
54.0
57.8
33. 5
34. 0
P.4. 2
33. 7
33. 9
33. 2
32.7
31.»
:V2. l
32. 5
18.3
15.2
18.5
15. 5
18.2
16. 0
17.6
16.1
18.2
15. 7
16.8
16.3
16. 1
16. 1
15.0
16. 9
15. 2
16. 9
15.9
IB. 6
K». 9
21.7
23.7
24.4
22.5
24.4
22. 7
24. 1
10
4.7
6. 5
6. 0
7. 1
6.1
11
3.9
5.8
5.4
(). 6
1.5
.4
1.2
.7
73.4
73.1
72.6
73.5
73.2
72.1
72.3
73.1
74.0
72.9
75.5
44. 3
29.2
43.4
29.7
42.9
29.7
43. 6
29.9
43.5
29.7
41.0
30.4
41.6
30.7
42.3
30. 8
42.7
31.3
42.0
30.9
43.4
32.1
m.
r
62. 5
63.1
32. 7
32. S
16.1
16.6
16.2
16. 5
16.4
16. 4
2i. 6
24. 9
25. 1
24. S
24. 3
21. 0
6. 9
5. 5
5. 2
4.6
5. 6
3.3
2. 3
-1.3
1, 1
5.4
7.0
5. 8
5.1
4.2
1.8
.8
-2. 7
. 1
.9
.3
2.5
2.9
4.0
5.1
3.7
2.0
3.9
13
75.4
74.1
74. 8
75.0
U
43.4
31.9
42.3
31.8
41. S
33. 0
42.7
32. 3
l,'i
2.4
15. 7
16. 9
4.6
12
16
126
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table 1-6.—Gross National Product by Major Type of Product, 1929-40 l
[Billions of dollars]
Line
1929
Gross national product.
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
104.4
91.1
76.3
58.5
56.0
65.0
72.5
82.7
90.8
85.2
91.1
100.6
Final sales
Inventory changeGoods output
,
Final sales
Inventory change-.
102.8
1.7
91.5
-.4
77.(5
-1.3
61.0
-2.6
57.6
-1.6
66.1
-1.1
71.6
.9
81.8
1.0
88.5
2.2
86.2
-.9
90.7
.4
98.4
2.2
56.3
54.6
1.7
47.1
47.5
-.4
37.4
38.7
-1.3
26.8
29.3
-2.6
27.1
28.7
-1.6
34.1
35.3
-1.1
39.9
39.0
.9
45.7
44.7
1.0
51.4
49.1
2.2
45.4
46.4
n
49.2
48.8
.4
56.4
54.3
2.2
Durable goods output.
Final sales
Inventory change..
18.1
16.7
1.4
11.8
12.9
-1.0
8.0
9.2
-1.2
3.8
5.8
-2.0
5.1
5.6
-.5
7.7
7.6
.1
9.6
9.3
.3
12.6
11.7
.9
14.5
13.7
.8
10.3
11.1
-.9
13.1
12.8
.3
17.3
16.1
1.2
Nondurable goods output.
Final sales
Inventory change
38.1
37.9
.3
35.2
34.6
.6
29.5
29.5
.0
23.0
23.5
-.5
22.0
23.1
-1.1
26.4
27.7
-1.3
30.2
29.7
.6
33.1
33.0
.0
36.8
35.4
1.5
35.2
35.3
-.1
36.0
36.0
.1
39.1
38.2
1.0
Services
37.0
35.0
32.2
28.0
26.1
27.5
28.7
31.5
32.9
33.7
34.5
36.0
Construction.
11.2
9.0
6.6
3.7
2.8
3.3
3.9
5.5
6.6
6.1
7.4
8.2
1. For further detail see table VII-5.
Table I—7.—Gross National Product by Major Type of Product, in Constant Dollars, 1929—40 *
[Billons of 1954 dollars]
Line
1929
Gross national product..
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
181.8
164.5
153.0
130.1
126.6
138.5
152.9
173.3
183.5
175.1
189.3
205.8
Final sales
Inventory change..
Goods output
Final sales
Inventory change..
178.8
3.0
154. 7
-1.8
135.7
-5.6
130.8
-4.2
141.2
-2.8
150.3
2.6
171.0
2.4
178.3
5.2
176.9
-1.8
188.3
1.0
201.4
4.5
95.4
92.5
3.0
165.2
-.7
83.4
84.1
-.7
77.8
79.5
-1.8
64.3
69.9
-5.6
63.6
67.8
-4.2
72.0
74.7
-2.8
82.4
79.7
2.6
93.9
91.6
2.4
102.1
96.9
5.2
93.9
95.7
-1.8
102.7
101.7
1.0
115.5
111.0
4.5
Durable goods output..
Final sales
Inventory change. .
30.8
28.2
2.6
20.5
22.4
-2.0
15.0
17.8
-2.8
7.6
12.4
-4.8
10.6
12.1
-1.5
15.6
15.4
.2
19.8
19.0
26.2
24.2
2.0
28.7
27.0
1.6
19.7
21.6
-1.9
25.5
25.0
.5
33.1
30.8
2.4
Nondurable goods output..
Final sales
Inventory change
64.7
64.3
63.0
61.7
62.8
61.7
56.7
57.5
53.0
55.7
-2.7
56.3
59.3
-3.0
62.6
60.7
67.7
67.4
73.5
69.9
3.6
74.2
74.1
77.2
76.7
82.3
80.3
54.6
57.4
Services
Construction.
.4
1.3
1.0
60.3
59.3
57.7
26.1
21.8
17.5
o
54.1
11.8
8.4
9.2
1.9
.3
59.7
64.3
10.9
15.1
65.0
16.4
.1
.4
2.1
65.9
67.6
70.2
15.3
19.0
20.1
1. For further detail see table VII-6. Implicit price deflators are shown in table VII-4.
Table 1-8.—National Income by Type of Income, 1929-40
[Millions of dollars]
Line
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
National income
87,814
75,729
59,708
42,547
40,159
48,959
57, 057
64,911
73,618
67,581
72,753
81,634
Compensation of employees.
51,085
46,844
39,740
31,054
29,539
34,295
37,340
42,910
47,934
44,994
48,108
52,129
50, 423
45, 485
308
4,630
662
101
561
169
46,187
41, 033
311
4, 843
39,119
33, 861
304
4, 954
46,107
38, 614
354
7,139
42, 976
34, 752
365
7,859
45, 941
37, 742
388
7,811
49, 818
41, 395
563
7,860
590
147
443
166
36, 690
30,189
303
6,198
650
171
479
180
41, 920
34, 054
334
7,532
621
111
510
158
28, 997
23, 855
267
4,875
542
133
409
140
33, 705
27, 629
268
5,808
657
106
551
160
30, 477
25, 511
292
4,674
577
126
451
148
990
418
572
238
1,827
1,234
593
2,018
1,423
595
2,167
1,540
627
2,311
1,624
687
282
218
228
248
392
391
3.52
303
277
299
334
375
367
379
14,759
11,540
8,734
5,316
5,599
7,010
10,387
10,482
12,691
11,128
8,791
8,649
142
7,410
6,655
755
5,581
4,970
611
3,384
3,089
295
3,166
3,691
-525
2,433
4,564
4,618
-54
5,351
5,401
-50
6,530
6,650
-120
3,952
7,073
7,102
-29
6,793
6,572
221
11,610
7,293
7,459
-166
4,317
5,968
4,130
3,153
1,932
1,971
2,446
1,661
1,776
5,618
4,335
2,742
Wages and salaries
Private
Military
Government civilian L.
Supplements to wages and salaries
Employer contributions for social insurance...
Other labor income
Employer contributions to private pension
and welfare funds.
Other
Proprietors' income
Business and professional
Income of unincorporated enterprises..
Inventory valuation adjustment
Farm
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment.
Profits before tax
Profits tax liability
Profits after tax
Dividends
Undistributed profits
Inventory valuation adjustment
Net interest
405
13,010
5,425
4,778
3,761
2,713
-1,992
1,694
2,918
5,002
2,081
2,560
5,689
6,582
1,634
-1,970
3,145
951
2,194
2,863
-669
5,740
1,409
4,331
4,548
-217
4,685
48
472
- 3 , 010
-738
-2,143
-625
-227
4,263
3,300
1,029
2,271
3,187
-916
6,403
1,441
4,962
3,788
1,174
-2,426
1,091
1,716
744
972
2,587
-1,615
6,204
3,322
842
2,480
5,490
151
521
-370
2,056
-31
963
4,869
4,751
4,741
6,445
3,260
- 3 , 017
385
- 3 , 402
2,565
- 5 , 967
2,414
1,047
4,568
2,885
10,100
9,628
1,369
8,259
5,813
2,446
-780
498
-1,278
4,088
-5,366
8,442
8,487
-45
6,235
1,502
4,733
9,120
9,320
2,834
6,486
4,043
2,443
-714
-200
4,604
4,490
4,636
4,708
5,042
5,839
5,434
5,985
1. Includes also the pay of employees of government enterprises and of permanent
United States residents employed in the United States by foreign governments and international
organizations.
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
127
l
Table 1-6.—Gross National Product by Major Type of Product, 1941-57
[Billions of dollars]
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Line
125.8
159.1
192.5
211.4
213.6
210.7
234.3
259.4
258.1
284.6
329.0
347.0
365.4
363.1
397.5
419.2
440.3
1
121.3
4.5
157.3
1.8
212.4
-1.0
214.6
-1.1
204.3
6.4
234.8
254.7
4.7
261.1
-3.1
277.8
6.8
318.7
10.2
343.9
3.1
364.9
.4
364.8
-1.6
439.4
1.0
2
3
94.5
92.7
1.8
133.8
134.8
-1.0
130.7
131.7
-1.1
128.8
122.4
6.4
143.8
144.3
-.5
157.0
152.3
4.7
149.3
152.4
-3.1
163.6
156.8
6.8
191.8
181.6
10.2
198.2
195.2
3.1
206.9
206.4
.4
197.4
199.0
-1.6
391.7
5.8
217.2
211.4
5.8
413.8
5.4
73.2
68.7
4.5
193.3
-.8
121.3
122.0
-.8
226.9
221.4
5.4
234.7
233.7
1.0
4
5
6
27.8
24.7
3.0
36.0
35.0
1.0
54.6
54.6
.0
58.4
59.1
-.6
49.5
50.7
-1.3
39.8
34.5
5.3
47.4
46.0
1.4
49.8
48.9
.9
47.9
49.9
-2.1
60.7
56.7
4.0
74.4
67.5
6.9
75.6
74.5
1.2
79.8
78.9
.9
71.6
74.1
-2.5
84.3
81.3
3.0
89.1
85.8
3.3
91.7
91.0
.8
7
8
9
45.5
44.0
1.5
58.6
57.8
.8
66.7
67.4
-.8
75.3
75.7
-.4
81.2
81.0
.2
89.0
87.9
1.1
96.4
98.2
-1.8
107.2
103.4
3.8
101.5
102.4
-1.0
102.9
100.1
2.8
117.4
114.1
3.3
122.6
120.7
1.9
127.0
127.5
-.5
125.9
125.0
.9
132.9
130.2
2.7
137.8
135.7
2.1
142.9
142.7
.2
10
11
12
40.9
50.5
62.6
71.9
76.7
68.5
71.8
78.1
83.5
89.8
102.9
112.3
119.5
124.1
133.4
143.6
154.8
13
11.6
14.1
8.6
5.8
6.2
13.4
18.7
24.3
25.2
31.2
34.2
36.4
39.0
41.6
46.9
48.7
50.8
14
Table 1-7.—Gross National Product by Major Type of Product, in Constant Dollars, 1941-57 *
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Line
238.1
266.9
296.7
317.9
314.0
282.5
282.3
293.1
292.7
318.1
341.8
353.5
369.0
363.1
392.7
402.2
407.0
1
229.5
8.6
263.2
3.6
297.3
-.6
319.6
-1.7
316.4
-2.4
273.5
9.0
282.4
-.1
288.7
4.4
296.3
-3.6
310.9
7.2
332.1
9.7
350.9
2.6
368.5
.5
364.8
-1.6
386.6
6.1
396.6
5.6
405.5
1.4
2
3
133.0
124.4
8.6
146.9
143.3
3.6
171.4
172.0
-.6
188.1
189.8
-1.7
183.1
185.5
-2.4
164.2
155.2
9.0
163.3
163.4
-.1
167.7
163.4
4.4
162.3
165.9
-3.6
177.6
170.4
7.2
191.7
182.0
9.7
196.8
194.2
2.6
207.7
207.2
.5
197.4
199.0
-1.6
216.9
210.8
6.1
221.5
215.9
5.6
220.2
218.8
1.4
4
5
6
46.1
40.3
5.8
50.2
47.8
2.4
73.7
73.2
.4
82.5
83.7
-1.2
72.9
75.4
-2.5
53.2
45.4
7.8
55.8
54.3
1.5
55.4
54.6
.8
51.9
54.3
-2.4
65.3
61.0
4.3
74.6
67.4
7.1
75.1
73.9
1.2
80.8
79.8
1.0
71.6
74.1
-2.5
83.1
80.1
3.0
84.4
81.5
3.0
83.1
82.4
.7
7
8
9
87.0
84.2
2.8
96.7
95.5
1.2
97.8
98.7
-1.0
105.6
106.1
-.5
110.3
110.1
.2
111.0
109.7
1.3
107.5
109.2
-1.6
112.3
108.8
3.5
110.5
111.6
-1.2
112.3
109.4
2.9
117.1
114.5
2.6
121.8
120.3
1.5
126.9
127.4
-.5
125.9
125.0
.9
133.8
130.7
3.1
137.1
134.5
2.6
137.2
136.4
.8
10
11
12
78.5
92.2
109.9
119.5
120.1
97.4
94.7
97.2
100.7
105.0
114.2
119.8
122.5
124.1
130.2
136.0
141.8
13
26.5
27.8
15.4
10.4
10.8
20.8
24.3
28.2
29.7
35.4
36.0
36.9
38.8
41.6
45.6
44.8
45.0
14
Table 1-8.—National Income by Type of Income, 1941-57
[Millions of dollars]
1941
1942
104,710
137,694
64,789
85,271
62,086
51,894
1,866
8,326
82,109
66,123
6,168
9,818
2,703
1,983
720
314
3,162
2,302
860
401
1944
1945
170,310
182,639
109,587
121,286
105,828
79,197
14,133
12, 498
3,759
2,677
1,082
586
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
181,248
180,879
198,177
223,487
217,690
241,876
279,313
292,155
305,573
301,794
330,206
349,356
363,951
1
123,181
117,697
128,757
140,969
140,834
154,190
180,327
195,012
208,812
207,595
223,852
241,799
254,637
2
116,823
83,843
20,033
12,947
117, 577
82,664
21,819
13,094
111, 836
91, 241
7,818
12, 777
122, 858
105, 512
4,067
13, 279
135, 214
116,443
3,970
14, 801
134, 310
113, 809
4,248
16, 253
146,391
124,121
4,999
17, 271
170, 788
141, 928
8,684
20,176
184,835
151, 870
10,472
22,493
198,030
164,157
10,337
23, 536
196, 259
161, 867
9,951
24,441
210, 902
174,927
9,778
26,197
227,304
189, 258
9,668
28,378
238,120
198,001
9,634
30,485
3
4
5
6
4,463
2,937
1,526
948
5.604
3,805
1,799
1,132
5,861
3,970
1,891
1,231
5,899
3,565
2,334
1,555
5,755
3,042
2,713
1,810
6,524
3,503
3,021
2,024
7,799
3,976
3,823
2,743
9,539
4,753
4,786
3,582
10,177
4,861
5,316
4,019
10, 782
4,788
5,994
4,598
11,336
5,122
6,214
4,739
12,950
5,814
7,136
5,523
14,495
6,597
7,898
6,070
16, 517
7,570
8,947
6,957
7
8
9
10
Line
406
459
496
578
667
660
779
903
997
1,080
1,204
1,297
1,396
1,475
1,613
1,828
1,990
11
17,401
23,907
28,187
29,565
30,835
36,573
35,492
40,194
35,583
37,541
42,329
42,233
40,723
40,442
42,149
42,435
43,001
12
10,897
11,512
-615
6,504
13,899
14, 266
-367
10,008
16,823
16,979
-156
11,364
18,040
18,109
-69
11, 525
19,011
21, 321
23,026
-1,705
15, 252
19,948
21, 419
-1,471
15, 544
22, 405
22, 815
-410
17, 789
22, 657
22,194
463
12, 926
23, 541
24, 635
-1,094
14,000
25,995
26,322
-327
16, 334
26,896
26, 695
201
15,337
27,445
27, 613
-168
13, 278
27, 751
27,800
-49
12, 691
30,382
30, 580
-198
11, 767
30, 803
31,300
-497
11, 632
31,403
31,700
-297
11, 598
13
14
15
16
19,117
-106
11,824
3,465
4,547
5,097
5,413
5,634
6,208
6,510
7,297
8,274
9,013
9,431
10,154
10,528
10,869
10,698
10,887
11,837
17
14,511
19,678
23,781
23,033
18,413
17,288
23,626
30,848
28,226
35,663
40,954
37,672
37,314
33,743
43,126
42,933
41,878
18
16, 982
7,610
9,372
4, 458
4,914
20, 882
11, 415
9,467
4,289
5,178
24, 554
14,074
10,480
4,484
5,996
23,320
12,949
10, 371
4,673
5,698
18,977
10,689
8,288
4,691
3,597
22, 551
9,111
13, 440
5,784
7,656
29,525
11, 283
18, 242
6,521
11, 721
33,000
12, 483
20, 517
7,243
13, 274
26, 370
10, 375
15, 995
7,473
8,522
40, 628
17,865
22, 763
9,208
13, 555
42,153
22,447
19, 706
9,029
10, 677
36, 691
19, 459
17,232
8,954
8,278
38, 311
20, 222
18,089
9,225
8,864
34,061
17,220
16,841
9,839
7,002
44,862
21,827
23,035
11, 215
11, 820
45, 493
22, 422
23,071
12,038
11,033
43,426
21, 649
21, 777
12,355
9,422
19
20
21
22
23
- 2 , 471
-1,204
-773
-287
-564
-5,263
-5,899
-2,152
1,856
-4,965
-1,199
981
-997
-318
-1,736
-2,560
-1,548
24
4,544
4,291
3,658
3,342
3,185
3,113
3,792
4,179
4,773
5,469
6,272
7,084
8,196
9,145
10,381
11,302
12,598
25
128
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table 1-9.-—National Income by Type of Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-47
[Billions of dollars]
1946
1947
Line
IV
III
II
III
IV
193.1
194.5
198.4
206.5
125.7
127.1
128.8
133.2
128.8
111.8
91.2
7.8
119.6
101.8
4.7
121.0
103.6
4.0
123.2
106.3
3.8
127.5
110.1
3.9
122.9
105.5
4.1
13.2
12.8
13.2
13.4
13.1
13.5
13.3
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.1
5.7
5.8
5.9
38.0
21.0
17.0
36.6
21.3
15.3
37.2
20.1
17.1
33.6
19.8
13.9
34.8
19.6
15.2
36.3
20.3
16.0
35.5
19.9
15.5
I
II
Na tional income
169.6
176.6
185.2
191.9
180.9
Compensation of employees.
113.2
115.2
119.5
122.7
117.7
107. 3
82.4
12.5
12. 4
109.3
89.1
7.6
113.6
94.8
5.9
116.8
98.4
5.3
5.8
12.6
12.9
34.0
5.9
5.9
20.7
13.3
35.8
21.7
14. 1
38.4
21.8
16.6
Wages and salaries
Private
Military
Government civilian x _
Supplements to wages and salaries.
Proprietors' income
Business and professional_
Farm
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment.
Profits before tax
Profits tax liability.
Profits after tax
Inventory valuation adjustment..
Net interest
5.9
13.5
14.7
6.0
8.8
-1.2
3.0
Year
Year
198.2
6.1
6.2
6.6
6.2
6.5
6.2
6.4
6.9
6.5
16.5
17.9
26.0
10.5
15.5
21.2
30.2
12.2
18.0
17.3
22.6
9.1
13.4
20.2
29.8
11.4
18.4
23.8
28.5
10.9
17.6
24.5
28.5
10.9
17.6
26.0
31.2
11.9
19.3
23.6
29.5
11.3
18.2
-5.3
-9.7
-4.7
-4.0
-5.2
-5.9
3.1
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.0
3.8
19.3
7.8
11.5
-2.8
-8.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
1
1. Includes also the pay of employees of government enterprises and of permanent United States residents employed in the United States by foreign governments and internationa
organ izations.
Table 1-9.—National Income by Type of Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1952-53
[Billions of dollars]
1952
Line
1953
III
National income
Compensation of employees..
Wages and salaries
Private
Military
Government civilian1.
Supplements to wages and salaries..
Proprietors' income
Business and professional.
Farm
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment.
Profits before tax
Profits tax liability..
Profits after tax
Inventory valuation adjustmentNet interest
IV
Year
II
III
IV
Year
292.2
306.3
308.7
307.2
300.1
305.6
195.0
202.4
195.0
206.4
209.7
210.4
208.8
208.8
184.8
151.4
10.7
191.9
158.4
10.5
23.1
184.8
151.9
10.5
195.7
162.0
10.3
23.4
198.8
164.8
10.4
23.6
199.6
165.7
10.4
23.5
198.0
164.1
10.3
198.0
164.2
10.3
23.5
10. 1
22.7
10.5
22.5
10.7
10.9
10.8
23.6
10.8
41.2
42.4
10.2
41.4
10.2
41.2
40.7
40.3
10.8
40.7
26.4
14.7
26.8
15.6
43.9
26.8
17.1
27.5
13.9
42.2
26.9
15.3
27.6
13.7
27.5
13.2
27.4
12.9
40.7
27.3
13.3
27.4
13.3
10.3
10.4
287.2
288.0
190.3
192.0
180.4
148.3
10.2
21.9
181.9
149.0
10.6
22.3
10.0
9.9
10.1
39.1
36.6
37.9
20. 1
17.8
35.5
18.8
16.7
292.4
36.0
35.3
18.7
16.6
13
1.2
.7
6.7
6.9
7.2
10.2
10.4
10.5
10.6
40.5
39.8
37.5
10.7
31.4
31.4
16.6
14.8
10.5
37.3
38.1
20.2
17.9
37.7
36.7
19.5
17.2
40.9
21.6
19.3
41.4
21.9
19.6
39.5
20.9
18.7
1.0
-.4
-1.6
-2.0
.0
-1.0
7.5
7.1
7.8
8.1
8.4
8.6
8.2
38.3
20.2
18.1
1. Includes also the pay of employees of government enterprises and of permanent United States residents employed in the United States by foreign governments and internationa
organizations.
129
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
Table I—9»—'National Income by Type of Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1948—51
[Billions of dollars]
1948
I
1919
Year
II
III
IV
214.4
222.6
227.4
229.2
223.5
136.3
139.1
143.6
144.5
141.0
130.7
113.0
3.8
13.9
133.4
115.3
3.9
14.2
137.9
118.6
4.0
15.2
138.7
118.6
4.2
15.8
135.2
116.4
4.0
14.8
Year
II
III
IV
220.8
217.4
217.8
214.8
217.7
222.1
233.6
142.4
141.1
139.8
139.9
140.8
143.2
149.6
136.1
116.0
4.2
15.9
134.7
114.4
4.1
16.2
133.3
112.7
4.2
16.4
133.2
112.2
4.5
16.5
134.3
113.8
4.2
16.3
136.0
114.9
4.4
16.6
142.0
120.8
4.3
16.9
I
1951
1950
I
II
Line
IV
Year
250.6
261.1
241.9
270.8
278.2
282.0
286.0
279.3
1
158.0
165.8
154.2
173.7
179.4
182.5
185.5
180.3
2
150.0
127.6
4.9
17.5
157.4
133.1
6.3
18.0
146.4
124.1
5.0
17.3
164.5
138.1
7.4
19.0
169.9
141.8
8.5
19.7
172.9
142.8
9.2
21.0
175.6
144.8
9.7
21.1
170.8
141.9
8.7
20.2
3
4
5
6
III
I
II
III
IV
Year
5.7
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.8
6. 3
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.5
7.3
7.5
8.0
8.4
7.8
9.2
9.5
9.6
9.9
9.5
7
37.4
41.3
41.7
40.4
40.2
36.4
35.9
35.1
35.0
35.6
35.5
36.2
38.8
39.7
37.5
41.5
42.2
42.4
43.2
42.3
8
21.4
16.0
22.2
19.1
22.9
18.8
23.1
17.3
22.4
17.8
22.7
13.7
23.0
12.9
22.7
12.4
22.3
12.7
22.7
12.9
22.2
13.3
23.1
13.2
24.5
14.2
24.4
15.3
23.5
14.0
25.9
15.6
25.9
16.3
26.0
16.4
26.2
17.0
26.0
16.3
9
10
7.0
7.1
7.4
7.6
7.3
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.7
8.3
8.8
8.9
9.1
9.2
9.0
9.3
9.3
9.5
9.7
9.4
11
29.6
30.9
30.6
32.4
30.8
29.6
27.6
29.6
26.2
28.2
29.4
33.5
39.2
40.6
35.7
40.4
41.1
41.2
41.1
41.0
12
32.4
12.3
20.2
33.8
12.8
21.0
33.4
12.6
20.7
32.4
12.3
20.2
33.0
12.5
20.5
28.2
11.1
17.1
24.7
9.7
15.0
26.6
10.5
16.1
26.0
10.2
15.8
26.4
10.4
16.0
30.1
13.2
16.8
36.8
16.2
20.6
46.5
20.4
26.0
49.2
21.6
27.5
40.6
17.9
22.8
49.1
26.2
23.0
42.1
22.4
19.7
37.8
20.1
17.7
39.6
21.1
18.5
42.2
22.4
19.7
13
14
15
-2.9
-2.9
-2.8
-.1
-2.2
1.4
2.8
3.0
.2
1.9
-.7
-3.3
-7.3
-8.5
-5.0
-8.7
-1.0
3.5
1.5
-1.2
16
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.7
4.9
5.0
4.8
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
5.5
6.0
,2
6.4
6.6
6.3
17
Table 1-9.—National Income by Type of Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1954-57
[Billions of dollars]
1954
1955
Year
II
III
IV
299.3
299.4
300.9
307.5
301.8
316.9
206.6
206.6
206.7
210.3
207.6
214.8
195.4
161.5
10.1
23.9
195.4
161.2
10.0
24.3
195.4
160.8
9.9
24.7
198.7
163.9
9.8
25.0
196.3
161.9
10.0
24.4
202.5
167.5
9.7
25.4
I
I
II
1956
Year
III
IV
I
327.3
335.0
341.4
330.2
342.2
346.2
222.0
226.8
231.7
223.9
235.3
240.6
209.3
173.2
10.0
26.1
213.5
177.3
9.8
26.4
218.1
181.5
9.7
26.9
210.9
174.9
9.8
26.2
221.4
184.3
9.7
27.4
226.4
188.6
9.7
28.0
II
1957
Line
IV
Year
I
350.8
357.9
349.4
361.5
364.1
368.7
361.5
364.0
1
243.0
248.1
241.8
251.6
254.9
257.3
254.8
254.6
2
228.2
189.8
9.7
28.8
232.9
194.1
9.6
29.3
227.3
189.3
9.7
284
235.6
196,2
9.6
29.8
238.4
19S. 6
9.7
30.2
240.5
199.9
9.8
30.8
238.0
197.4
9.5
31.1
238.1
198.0
9.6
30.5
3
4
5
6
III
II
III
IV
Year
11.2
11.2
11.3
11.6
11.3
12.3
12.7
13.3
13.5
13.0
13.9
14.2
14.7
15.1
14.5
16.0
16.4
16.8
16.8
16.5
7
40.6
39.6
40.9
40.6
40.4
41.1
42.4
42.6
42.5
42.1
42.0
42.1
42.7
42.9
42.4
42.6
43.0
43.5
42.8
43.0
8
27.1
13.6
27.6
12.0
27.8
13.1
28.5
12.1
27.8
12.7
29.3
11.8
30.4
12.1
30.9
11.7
31.0
11.5
30.4
11.8
30.7
11.3
30.9
11.3
30.8
11.9
30.9
12.0
30.8
11.6
31.1
11.5
31.4
11.6
31.7
11.8
31.3
11.5
31.4
11.6
9
10
10.8
10.9
10.9
10.9
10.9
10.8
10.7
10.6
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.9
11.2
10.9
11.4
11.7
12.0
12.2
11.8
11
32.5
33.3
33.0
36.1
33.7
40.3
41.9
44.4
45.8
43.1
43.3
41.6
42.8
44.0
42.9
43.7
42.0
43.1
38.8
41.9
12
32.5
16.5
16.1
33.3
16.9
16. r.
33.7
17.1
16.7
36.6
18.5
18.1
34.1
17.2
16.8
41.4
20.2
21.3
42.8
20.8
22.0
46.6
22.7
23.9
48.6
23.6
24.9
44.9
21.8
23.0
46.2
22.8
23.4
44.8
22.1
22.7
44.3
21.8
22.4
46.7
23.0
23. 7
45.5
22.4
23.1
46.1
23.0
23.1
43.5
21.7
21.8
44.2
22.0
22.1
39.9
19.9
20.0
43.4
21.6
21.8
13
11
15
-.5
-.3
-1.1
-2.2
-2.8
-1.7
-2.8
-3.2
-1.5
-2.7
-2.6
-2.4
-1.5
-1.1
-1.1
-1.5
16
9.6
9.1
9.9
10.6
10.8
10.4
10.9
11.1
11.4
11.7
11.3
12.1
12.5
12.8
12.9
12.6
17
.0
.0
—. 7
8.8
9.0
9.3
-.9
10.3
130
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table 1-10.—National Income by Industry, 1929-40 l
[Millions of dollars]
Line
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
All industries, total
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
Farms
Agricultural services, forestry, a n d fisheries
Mining
Metal mining
Anthracite mining
Bituminous a n d other soft-coal mining
Crude petroleum a n d n a t u r a l gas
Nonmetallic mining a n d quarrying
Contract construction
Manufacturing
Food a n d kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile-mill products
Apparel a n d other finished fabric products
Lumber a n d furniture products 2
Lumber a n d wood products, except furniture _
F u r n i t u r e a n d fixtures
Lumber a n d timber basic products
Furniture a n d finished lumber products
Paper a n d allied products
Printing, publishing, a n d allied industries
Chemicals a n d allied products 2
Products of petroleum a n d coal 2
Rubber products
Leather a n d leather products
Stone, clay, a n d glass products
Metals, metal products, a n d miscellaneous 2
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products, including ordnance.
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Iron a n d steel a n d their products, including
ordnance.
Nonferrous metals a n d their products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Machinery, except electrical 2
Electrical machinery 2
Transportation equipment, except automobiles. _ .
Automobiles a n d automobile equipment
Wholesale and retail trade
Wholesale trade
Retail trade and automobile services
Finance, insurance, and real estate
Banking
Security and commodity brokers, dealers and exchanges.
Finance, n. e. c
Insurance carriers
Insurance agents and combination offices
Real estate
Transportation
Railroads
Local and highway passenger transportation
Highway freight transportation and warehousing __
Water transportation
Air transportation (common carriers)
Pipeline transportation
Services allied to transportation
Communications and public utilities
Telephone, telegraph, and related services
Radio broadcasting and television
,
Utilities: electric and gas
Local utilities and public services, n. e. c
Services
Hotels and other lodging places
Personal services
Private households
Commercial and trade schools and employment
agencies.
Business services, n. e. c
Miscellaneous repair services and hand trades
Motion pictures
Amusement and recreation, except motion pictures
Medical and other health services
Legal services
Engineering and other professional services, n. e. c
Educational services, n. e. c
Nonprofit membership organizations, n. e. c
Government and government enterprises
Federal—general government
Federal—government enterprises
State and local —general government
State and local—government enterprises
Rest of the world
1932
1933
1934
40,159
3,713
3,590
123
647
38
130
257
181
41
755
7,562
1,331
142
699
542
305
48,959
3,723
3,603
120
1,158
123
172
417
376
70
1,066
10,905
1,599
146
1,102
784
547
57,057
6,411
6,268
143
1,211
166
139
446
378
82
1,297
13,265
1,873
203
1,201
850
653
42,547
3,332
3,199
133
673
20
151
241
211
50
1,056
7,207
1,409
312
714
498
329
615
507
504
1,501
1,036
809
274
491
613
3,347
281
372
388
1, 220
830
309
232
390
439
1,861
118
211
270
883
561
121
113
305
123
768
123
182
290
793
621
76
102
271
208
1,031
264
283
418
928
726
120
134
413
330
1,781
2,970
2,217
1,110
410
684
757
596
1,890
1,045
315
1,385
13,358
4,222
9,136
12,693
1,957
655
634
496
1,481
824
288
841
12,229
4,053
8,176
10,592
1,480
144
412
339
753
503
142
561
9,743
3,181
6,562
8,646
985
70
196
162
299
245
89
168
6,354
2,158
4,196
6,753
733
153
194
424
276
69
382
5,485
1,781
3,704
5,745
495
260
200
888
421
8,572
6,636
4,597
825
560
266
-3
129
262
2,864
1,125
28
1,631
80
10,338
599
1,279
3,253
40
402
7,752
5,604
3,766
766
533
216
-10
105
228
2,790
1,097
9
1,608
76
9,187
543
1,203
2,363
38
-28
718
366
6,535
4,369
2,828
633
481
173
4
81
169
2,628
991
16
1,563
58
7,863
442
1,030
1,815
31
-63
576
328
5,081
3,210
1,979
512
418
127
10
56
108
2,286
794
21
1,410
61
6,133
305
800
1,362
22
561
312
440
381
1,536
689
206
402
640
5,093
879
581
3,456
177
810
559
301
438
337
1,476
683
184
413
649
5,316
915
584
3,630
187
746
445
273
361
269
1,306
701
152
412
626
5,426
921
582
3, 737
186
547
356
224
194
178
1,037
591
102
393
569
5,150
880
544
3,565
161
393
1929
1930
87,814
8,278
8,083
195
2,048
466
284
649
447
202
3,808
21,888
2,135
256
1,796
1,262
1,528
75,729
6,226
6,044
182
1,628
275
282
531
348
192
3,179
18,232
2,394
299
1,405
1,003
1,122
852
676
562
1,589
1,129
917
355
602
799
4,323
1931
n. e. c—Not elsewhere classified.
1. National income originating in each industry is the sum of factor costs incurred by the
industry in production. Hence, it is the net value added to production by the industry,
measured at factor costs. In the business sector of the economy, except government enterprises, it is equal to the excess of the market value of the industry's product and the subsidies
it receives over the sum of the following costs: purchases of goods and services from other
enterprises, indirect business tax and nontax liability, business transfer payments, and capital
1937
1938
64,911
5,405
5,266
139
1.520
263
146
535
461
115
1,983
16,182
2,076
134
1,361
973
891
73,618
7,214
7,029
185
1,912
452
137
600
581
142
2,078
19,305
2,401
196
1,601
992
1,072
67,581
5,907
5,741
166
1,470
271
114
458
523
104
1,993
15,006
2,252
223
1,094
917
852
72,753
5,933
5,761
172
1,582
343
126
501
482
130
2,323
17,925
2,269
297
1,261
1,028
1,001
328
341
461
1,042
806
208
213
376
409
2,345
449
442
505
1,171
961
317
214
424
576
3,084
564
508
565
1,253
1,167
542
292
461
653
3,806
430
422
573
1,137
1,007
491
204
403
503
2,479
494
507
556
1,213
1,202
434
278
424
663
3,377
1,086
1,478
2,069
2,597
1,600
2,267
381
314
733
376
119
649
8,056
2,476
5, 580
5,633
541
215
461
406
1,014
526
139
930
9,200
2,919
6,281
5,933
665
183
557
458
1,398
710
232
1,155
10,590
3,234
7,356
6,580
778
279
510
1,760
912
332
1,300
12,212
3,926
8,286
7,237
895
243
438
441
1,247
661
263
700
11,943
3,779
8,164
7,676
846
159
591
519
1,490
852
396
1,184
12,453
3,830
8,623
7,920
882
165
0
571
289
4,130
3,036
1,866
450
416
153
10
47
94
2,000
691
14
1,237
58
5,567
271
695
1,199
20
19
650
315
3,893
3,415
2,062
485
466
178
8
103
113
2,198
741
32
1, 359
66
6,231
341
782
1,336
23
77
720
330
3,958
3,700
2, 250
478
526
200
14
106
126
2,280
777
38
1,401
64
6,669
371
857
1,428
29
140
801
347
4, 235
4,277
2, 635
535
587
243
22
107
148
2,487
842
53
1,528
64
7,479
413
958
1,662
32
151
906
386
4,656
4,634
2,808
546
654
293
26
130
177
2,725
925
66
1,668
66
8,246
471
1,110
1,930
39
220
922
383
5,146
4,052
2,370
499
658
206
30
120
169
2,717
947
65
1,642
63
7,907
456
1,024
1,718
34
168
926
390
5,389
4,642
2,737
515
739
280
44
131
196
2,863
1,005
76
1,717
65
8,276
481
1,049
1,866
34
330
191
210
154
948
561
98
363
527
5,326
1,164
485
3, 531
146
323
424
203
283
197
1,036
600
113
361
532
6,271
1,694
540
3,884
153
303
473
218
329
211
1,115
624
121
574
230
391
253
1,253
647
144
376
546
8,108
3,570
662
3,696
180
300
607
247
437
305
1,323
680
156
394
547
7,772
3,013
675
3,889
195
283
599
259
426
266
1,330
666
164
409
556
8,524
3,505
698
4,121
200
386
261
434
288
1,381
692
181
415
556
8,523
3,414
719
4,185
205
313
36J
528
6,724
1,768
614
4,178
164
367
consumption charges. In the other sectors of the economy (government, personal, and rest
of the world) and also in government enterprises, this value added in production (as measured
in the present series) can be described only as factor costs incurred. "National income
originating" is a more net concept of value-added than that used by the Bureau of the Census
in compiling the Census of Manufactures. "Value added by manufacture" is obtained in the
Census of Manufactures by deducting from the value of products only "the cost of materials,
supplies, containers, fuel, purchased electric energy, and contract work." National income
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
Table 1-10.—National Income by Industry, 1941-57
131
1
[Millions of dollars]
1941
1942
1943
104,710
8,470
8,269
201
2,299
504
165
805
620
205
4,195
33,027
2,737
220
2,067
1,463
],691
137,694
12,403
12,148
255
2,571
581
192
989
556
253
6,471
45,343
3,693
185
2,852
1,928
1,973
170,310
14,143
13,864
279
2,741
498
213
1,133
646
251
5,460
58,149
4,395
189
3,014
2,418
2,089
182,639
14,483
14,152
331
2,891
403
239
1,263
757
229
4,135
60,124
4,951
283
2,965
2,705
2,170
181,248
14,889
14, 526
363
2,717
334
219
1,195
741
228
4,280
52,008
5,010
236
3,015
2,914
2,133
180,879
18,652
18, 235
417
2,970
302
283
1,242
839
304
6,477
48,479
5,539
326
4,005
3,355
2,811
198,177
19,303
18, 836
467
4,191
515
300
1,815
1,178
383
8,401
58,717
5,803
364
4,657
3,383
3,455
907
784
1,030
1,363
1,940
826
489
617
1,070
7,165
1,090
883
1,124
1,434
2,774
1,152
594
778
1,171
9, 593
1,138
951
1,257
1,739
3,349
1, 459
898
859
1,192
12, 589
1,142
1,028
1,348
2,029
3,350
1,326
1,019
884
1,134
12, 598
1,080
1,053
1,341
2,234
3,221
1,244
928
925
1,146
10, 679
1,448
1,363
1,696
2,697
3,271
1,510
1,082
1,082
1,561
8,851
1,938
1, 517
2,208
3,055
3,763
2,209
1,124
1,114
1,852
11,094
5,076
6,895
9,068
9,045
7,389
5,531
7,566
1,200
889
3,844
1,893
2,262
2,350
17,254
5,228
12,026
9,172
1,097
109
1,491
1,207
5,395
2,474
6,214
2,009
10,649
1,188
78
1,945
1,576
5,917
3,347
12,105
1,333
23,831
6,911
16,920
11,569
1,410
173
1,934
1,619
5,807
3,708
12, 446
1,401
25,745
7,640
18,105
12,197
1,661
178
1,686
1,604
5,084
3,051
7,730
1,117
27,997
8,242
19, 755
12,830
1,829
315
1,753
1,567
4,717
2,376
1,691
1,909
34,417
10, 393
24, 024
14,479
2,167
283
1,912
1,616
6,192
3,398
1,524
3,522
37,341
11,651
25,690
15,250
2,159
132
6,884
3,630
1,868
4,044
41,453
13,005
28, 448
17,628
2,437
168
225
918
444
6,379
6,300
3,778
582
1,021
432
77
145
265
3,324
1,135
106
2,011
72
9,806
584
1,286
2,188
57
364
1,021
468
7,530
8,598
5,568
904
1,183
425
113
317
288
3,669
1,367
109
2,121
72
10,981
674
1,548
2,201
112
283
1,101
488
8,114
10,784
6,971
1,218
1,308
595
151
129
412
3,934
1,547
139
2,169
79
12,295
877
1,893
2,107
159
273
1,087
529
8,469
11,245
6,899
1,293
1,354
857
175
145
522
4,062
1,652
175
2,152
83
13,618
983
2,012
2,360
134
272
1,077
568
8,769
10,536
6,009
1,306
1,390
989
192
131
519
4,244
1,751
186
2,218
89
14,614
1,085
2,121
2,635
72
333
1,183
750
9,763
10,245
5,466
1,412
1,699
823
217
126
502
4,792
1,973
203
2,523
93
17,205
1,322
2,552
2,766
89
403
1,403
852
10,301
11,498
6,294
1,393
1,993
814
243
151
610
5,114
2,077
226
2,709
102
18,919
1,287
2,634
3, 272
114
779
350
513
368
1,575
763
264
439
640
10,500
5,027
808
4,388
277
363
826
419
652
388
1,806
793
385
461
716
16,332
10, 645
918
4,473
296
365
915
610
830
436
1,988
814
344
503
819
27,037
20, 899
1.139
4,663
336
367
1,055
701
883
507
2,341
874
320
532
916
33,716
27, 250
1,188
4,938
340
423
1,179
703
930
613
2,459
930
335
569
983
36,764
29,786
1,248
5,370
360
369
1,471
843
1,133
810
3,024
954
454
660
1,127
22,592
14, 545
1,448
6,177
422
571
1,634
938
1,054
794
3, 544
1,033
560
813
1,242
18,619
9,343
1,440
7,320
516
824
20,312
6,195
14,117
1944
1945
1946
1947
1954
1955
1956
1957
Line
1949
1950
223,487
21,902
21, 355
547
5,247
636
343
2,096
1,721
451
10,576
66,777
6,608
424
5,158
3,496
3,849
2,661
1,188
217,690
16,897
16, 332
565
4,334
509
261
1,446
1,662
456
10,475
62,702
6,409
496
4,123
3,317
3,371
2, 219
1,152
241,876
17,923
17,328
595
5,010
691
282
1,706
1,804
527
11,833
74,371
6,654
470
4, 545
3,414
4,236
2, 842
I 394
279,313
20,493
19, 829
664
5,499
797
279
1,806
2,011
606
14,213
88_495
6,998
547
5,183
3,816
4,735
3,209
I 526
292,155
19,532
18, 807
725
5,237
720
254
1,554
2,095
614
15,383
90,172
7,618
587
4,584
3,906
4,567
2,982
1, 585
305,573
17,498
16, 750
748
5,208
817
202
1,490
2,056
643
15,881
97,953
8,016
703
4,407
4,050
4,511
2,917
1, 594
301,794
16,922
16,128
794
4,923
766
161
1,133
2,182
681
16,043
91,057
7,944
680
3,789
3,866
4,278
2,752
1, 526
330,206
16,084
15, 234
850
5,609
990
133
1,313
2,410
763
17,358
104,490
8,826
696
4,320
4,129
4,995
3,233
1,762
349,356
16,138
15, 206
932
6,265
1,095
168
1,555
2,603
844
19,080
109,901
8,949
731
4, 402
4,443
5,113
3,198
1,915
363,951
16,229
15, 280
949
6,191
847
171
1,609
2,783
781
19,648
112,517
9,119
802
4,120
4,398
4,635
2,721
1,914
2,333
3,293
4,258
3,477
1,061
1,241
2,124
13, 029
5,918
4, 400
2,152
3, 442
4,276
2,682
948
1,102
2,079
11,928
5, 402
3 974
2,683
3,637
5,096
3,071
1,044
1,111
2,639
15. 399
7,153
5 106
3,373
3,878
6,178
3,746
1,633
1,334
3,017
18, 968
9, 091
Q 236
3,120
4,130
5,909
3,335
1,700
1,338
2,831
18, 287
7,903
6, 553
3,317
4,483
6,269
3,761
1,716
1,344
3,138
21,065
9,393
7, 475
3,351
4,608
6,308
3,694
1,387
1,322
3,150
18, 546
7,686
6, 767
3,725
5,069
7,486
4.042
1,704
1,368
3,792
22, 025
10,176
7,372
4,011
5,455
7,799
4V378
1,881
1,437
4,031
23, 658
11,105
7,714
3,872
5,671
8,172
4,063
1,911
1,458
3,957
24,186
11, 229
8,128
1,020
\, 691
997
1, 555
1 245
1^895
1 602
2^ 039
1, 775
2^056
1, 959
2, 238
1, 940
2,153
2,085
2,392
2,290
2,549
2,358
2,471
6,191
3,456
1,917
4,813
40,567
12,401
28,166
19,969
2,568
179
7,246
4, 415
2,046
6,665
42,707
13, 682
29,025
21,789
2,904
278
9,869
5,476
3,346
6,398
47,187
15, 905
31, 282
23,575
3,319
309
10, 667
6,303
4,856
6,434
48,951
16, 232
32,719
25,573
3,800
297
10, 809
6,985
5,711
7,668
49,753
16, 551
33, 202
27,608
4,278
307
9,733
6,261
5,721
6,419
50,649
16, 614
34, 035
29,312
4,363
451
10,370
6,681
5,728
9,534
55,000
18, 729
36, 271
30,918
4, 586
491
12,108
7,500
6,493
7,512
57,339
20,096
37, 243
32,134
5,041
<*70
12, 298
8,344
7,432
8,079
59,622
20,929
38, 693
34,611
5,520
465
289
1,943
940
11,851
12,680
7,123
1.380
2,287
810
306
192
582
5,896
2,462
253
3,067
114
20,656
1,339
2,830
3,621
133
390
2,720
969
13,143
11,926
6,341
1,341
2,376
748
349
202
569
6,563
2,670
262
3, 514
117
21,333
1,354
2,898
3,887
146
461
2,254
1,138
14, 754
13,278
7,076
1. 336
2,819
748
434
256
609
7,198
2,962
316
3,794
126
23,089
1,385
3,006
4,557
169
601
2,481
1,270
15, 595
14,867
7,776
1,434
3,117
967
526
285
762
8,304
3. 339
389
4,430
146
25,063
1,461
3,149
4,882
168
676
2,675
1,430
16, 695
15,382
7,913
1,474
3,380
931
593
296
795
9,208
3,701
430
4,913
164
26,928
1, 535
3,258
5,186
163
693
3,103
1,567
17,660
15,754
7,715
1,455
3,814
1,003
662
292
813
10,127
4,159
476
5, 311
181
29,201
1,566
3,395
5,937
159
664
3,372
1,725
18, 737
14,444
6,546
1,410
3,836
852
710
286
804
10,757
4,364
532
5, 661
200
30,214
1,585
3,468
5,995
166
812
3,409
1,826
19,794
15,781
7,116
1,411
4,301
987
800
286
880
11,677
4,838
629
6,014
196
33,740
1,657
3,652
6,960
184
814
3,202
1,945
20,662
16,766
7,486
1,444
4,628
1,044
909
299
956
12,484
5,251
690
6,341
202
36,959
1,731
3,856
7,840
208
961
3,345
2,054
22,266
17,258
7,432
1,483
4,855
1,151
977
317
1,043
13,340
5,659
729
6,740
212
39,422
1,814
4,019
8,341
226
3<
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
51
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
6(
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6!
1,848
937
893
833
4, 072
1, 174
672
942
1,362
19,681
8,895
1,627
8,502
657
991
1,872
877
879
815
4,182
1,253
680
1,019
1,471
21,919
9,966
1,806
9,422
725
1,005
2,097
930
830
825
4,544
1,339
731
1,088
1,588
23,490
10, 690
1,897
10,124
779
1,188
2,365
1,046
853
865
4,946
1,449
948
1, 173
1,758
30,221
16,193
2,081
11,069
878
1,396
2,668
1,132
852
918
5,389
1,507
1,156
1,251
1,913
34,466
18,837
2, 379
12, 174
1,076
1,323
2,974
1,176
815
1,032
5,906
1,595
1, 245
1,341
2,060
35,276
18, 509
2,367
13,246
1,154
1,314
3,172
1,182
895
1,103
5,971
1,745
1,286
1,447
2,199
35,856
17, 683
2 352
U, 620
1,201
1,617
3,611
1,310
926
1,187
6,997
1,900
1,474
1,571
2,311
37, 766
18, 240
2,521
15, 727
1,278
1,783
4,167
1,413
887
1,261
7,547
1, 965
1,809
1,788
2,487
40,269
18,841
2,667
17, 439
1,322
2,021
4,615
1,488
867
1,335
8,045
2,095
1,952
1,972
2,653
42,869
19, 427
2,830
19,197
1,415
2,244
6
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
8
8
8
8
by industrial origin is obtained statistically by aggregating the data presented in tables VI-l
and VI-5 and the industry detail underlying tables VI-4, VI-11, and VI-l2 together with the
rental income of persons (shown in table 1-12 and classified in the real estate industry). Footnotes to these tables are, therefore, relevant to table 1-10 also.
For information on the system of industrial classification used in the national income estimates, see pages 66-67 of the 1954 National Income supplement.
1952
1948
1951
1953
1(
1
1
1
11
1(
r
i<
2(
2
2'
2,
%
2,
2(
2
%
2S
3(
3
3'
3
3
2. Owing to changes in the industrial classification of the underlying data, figures for 1948
and subsequent years in this and a number of other industries are not strictly comparable with
those shown here for 1947 and earlier years. Estimates for 1948 national income comparable
to those shown for 1947 are as follows: Lumber and furniture products, $3,954; Chemicals and
allied products, $4,427; Products of petroleum and coal, $3,290; Metals, metal products, and
miscellaneous, $12,546; Machinery, except electrical, $7,011; and Electrical machinery, $3,693,
132
NATIONAL
INCOME
AND PRODUCT
TABLES
Table I—11.—NationaI Income by Industry
Division, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1946—47
[Billions of dollars]
1946
1947
Line
All industries, total
II
III
IV
Year
II
III
IV
Year
169.6
176.6
185.2
191.9
180.9
193.1
194.5
198.4
206.5
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
16.5
17.4
20.2
20.5
18.7
21.0
17.5
19.0
19.8
19.3
Manufacturing
Durable-goods industries
40.4
17.3
23.1
48.4
23.8
24.7
50.1
27.0
23.2
54.9
27.8
27.2
48.5
23.9
24.6
55.7
28.6
27.0
58.4
31.9
26.5
59.1
30.9
28.2
61.6
32.8
58.7
31.0
27.7
31.9
33.6
35.8
36.2
34.4
36.4
36.5
37.2
13.9
14.4
14.6
15.1
14.5
15.0
14.9
15.2
Finance, insurance, and real estate
9.4
10.2
10.7
10.6
10.2
10.4
11.4
11.9
Transportation
5.4
3.9
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.8
5.4
Communications and public utilities
16.2
17.0
17.6
18.0
17.2
18.3
18.8
19.1
Services
27.1
22.3
20.7
20.2
22.6
19.5
19.0
17.8
9.3
10.6
11.3
10.0
12.2
13.1
13.8
Nondurable-goods industries
Wholesale and retail trade
Government and government enterprises
Other
Table I—11.—National Income by Industry
Division, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly
28.8
39.2
15.9
12.3
5.5
19.4
18.2
14.6
198.2
37.3
15.2
11.5
5.1
18.9
18.6
13.4
Totals at Annual Rates, 1952—53
[Billions of dollars]
1953
1952
Line
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
287.2
288.0
292.4
300.6
292.2
306.3
308.7
307.2
300.1
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
18.9
19.8
21.4
18.0
19.5
17.8
17.4
17.1
17.6
17.5
Manufacturing
Durable-goods industries
89. 6
53.5
36.0
87.9
52.1
35.7
87.8
51.7
36.2
95.2
58.4
36.8
90.2
53.9
36.2
100.1
61.8
38.3
100.6
61.9
38.7
99.4
60.9
38.5
91.8
55.0
36.8
98.0
59.9
38.1
47. 6
49.0
49.0
50.2
49.0
49.8
50.1
49.6
49.5
49.8
24.7
25.3
25.8
26.4
25.6
26.9
27.6
27.8
28.1
27.6
15. 6
14.9
15.1
15.9
15.4
15.9
16.0
15.9
15.2
15.8
9.1
8.9
9.2
9.6
9.2
9.9
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.1
All industries, total
Nondurable-goods industries
Wholesale and retail trade
Finance, insurance, and real estate
Transportation
Communications and public utilities
Services
Government and government enterprises
Other
305.6
26.1
26.6
27.2
27.8
26.9
28.4
29.1
29.5
29.8
29.2
33.5
34.4
34.9
35.1
34.5
35.2
35.5
35.2
35.2
35.3
22.1
21.4
21.9
22.4
21.9
22.2
22.3
22.5
22.6
22.4
133
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
Table 1-11.—National Income by Industry Division, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1948-51
[Billions of dollars]
I
214.4
1950
1949
1948
Year
II
III
IV
222.6
227.4
229.2
223.5
21 9
Year
II
I
II
III
IV
220.8
217.4
217.8
214.8
217.7
222.1
233.6
17.7
17.0
16.4
16.6
16.9
17.2
17.0
I
1951
Line
IV
Year
250.6
261.1
241.9
270.8
278.2
282.0
286.0
279.3
1
18.2
19.3
17.9
19.7
20.4
20.6
21.2
20.5
2
85.7
50.4
35.3
89.2
52.0
37.2
89.5
51.7
37.8
89.5
53.1
36.4
88.5
51.8
36.7
3
4
5
6
III
I
II
III
IV
Year
20.0
23.1
23.0
21.5
65.2
34.5
30.8
66.2
34.6
31.6
67.3
35.7
31.6
68.4
37.0
31.4
66.8
35.4
31.3
65.4
35.6
29.8
62.2
33.6
28.6
63.4
34.1
29.3
59.8
31.4
28.4
62.7
33.8
28.9
64.0
35.1
28.9
70.7
40.1
30.5
78.4
45.6
32.8
84.6
49.7
34.9
74.4
42.6
31.7
40.5
41.3
41.9
42.1
41.5
41.2
40.9
40.2
40.0
40.6
41.0
41.9
44.8
43.1
42.7
47.8
46.6
47.0
47.4
47.2
20.7
20.0
20.8
21.5
22.2
22.7
21.8
22.7
23.2
23.9
24.5
23.6
7
11.9
12.6
13.8
14.8
13.3
14.5
14.9
14.8
15.5
14.9
8
16.7
17.3
18.0
18.6
17.6
19.0
19.8
20.4
12.4
12.5
12.9
13.0
12.7
12.2
12.1
12.0
11.5
11.9
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.1
5.9
6. 3
6.5
6.7
6.7
6.6
0.8
7.1
7.3
7.6
7.2
7.9
8.1
8.4
8.8
8.3
9
19.9
20.5
21.1
21.2
20.7
21.3
21.2
21..3
21.6
21.3
22.2
22.8
23.4
23.9
23.1
24.6
24.9
25.2
25.5
25. 1
10
18.6
19.0
20.1
21.0
19.7
21.5
21.7
22.0
22.5
21.9
22.4
22.5
23.6
25.5
23.5
27.7
29.5
31.5
32.2
30.2
11
15.5
16.9
17.3
17.5
16.8
16.2
16.1
15.5
15.5
15.8
15.8
17.5
18.9
19.6
18.0
20.2
21.4
21.1
21.5
21.1
12
Table 1-11.—National Income by Industry Division, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1954-57
[Billions of dollars]
1954
I
1955
I
II
III
IV
299.3
299.4
300.9
307.5
301. S
17.8
16.4
17. 2
16.3
16.9
91.3
54.8
36.5
90.4
53.8
36.6
89.3
52.7
36.6
93.1
55.1
38.0
91.1
54.1
36.9
49.3
50.5
50.9
51.8
50.6
28.6
29.2
29 5
29.9
29.3
14.5
14.3
14.4
14.6
14.4
15.2
Year
1957
1956
II
III
IV
Year
316.9
327.3
335.0
341.4
330.2
312.2
346.2
16.0
16.4
16.0
15. 9
16.1
15.7
15 8
98.0
59.0
38.9
103.2
62.1
41.1
106.8
64.6
42.2
110. 2
66.9
43.2
104. 5
63.1
41.4
108. 0
65. 0
43.0
108.4
65. 2
43.2
53.5
53.9
55.9
56. 5
55.0
56.5
56.6
58.2
58. 0
57.3
30.4
30.8
31.1
31.4
30.9
31.0
31.9
32.3
32.7
32.1
15.6
16.1
16.2
15.8
16.6
16.8
16. 6
17.0
16.8
17.3
I
II
Line
IV
Year
350.8
357.9
349.4
361.5
364.1
368.7
361.5
364.0
1
10. 5
16.6
16.1
16.1
16.2
16.5
16.1
16.2
2
108.9
65. 0
43. 9
114.2
70.3
43.8
109.9
66.4
43.5
114.1
70.4
43.6
113. 0
69.2
43.7
113.9
69.8
44. 1
109.2
66.3
42.9
112. 5
68.9
43.6
3
4
5
59.2
59.6
60.5
59.1
59.6
6
33.5
34.2
35.2
35.6
34.6
7
17.4
17.6
16.8
17.3
8
III
i
II
III
IV
Year
10.5
10.7
10.8
11.0
10.8
11.3
11.7
11.7
12.1
11.7
12.2
12.4
12.7
12. 0
12.5
13.1
13.3
13.4
13.6
13.3
9
29.6
29.8
30.3
31.1
30.2
32.1
33.3
34.4
35.2
33.7
36.0
36.6
37.3
38.0
37.0
38.5
39.3
39.9
40.0
39.4
10
35.3
35.7
36.1
36.4
35.9
36.8
37.9
38.0
38.4
37.8
39.3
40.0
40.7
41.1
40.3
42.1
42.6
43.3
43.4
42.9
11
22.4
22.4
22.3
23.2
22.6
23.7
24.6
25.2
25.5
24.8
26.4
27.7
27.7
27. f>
27.1
27.7
28.5
28.5
27.7
28.1
12
134
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table 1-12.—National Income and Gross National Product by Legal Form of Organization, 1929-40
[Millions of dollars]
1929
Line
National income
ncome originating in business, total..
Corporate business
Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Compensation of corporate officers. _.
Other wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salaries
Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment.
Profits before tax
Profits tax liability
Profits after tax
Inventory valuation adjustment
Net interest
Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salariesProprietors' income
Business and professional
Income of unincorporated enterprises.
Inventory valuation adjustment
Farm
Net interest^
Other private business _.
Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salaries-
1933
1934
1935
1937
1938
1939
72,753
75,729
59,708
42,547
40,159
48,959
57,057
64,911
73,618
67,581
78,179
66,814
51,464
35,216
32,903
40,697
48,253
54,565
63,332
56,640
61,748
45,224
38,490
28,328
18,426
17,345
23,380
27,017
32,273
37, 587
32,256
36,185
33,739
33,307
3,337
29,970
432
30,303
29,886
3,139
26, 747
417
24,888
24,508
2,698
21,810
380
18,603
18. 274
2,133
16,141
329
17,620
17,318
1,995
15,323
302
20,642
20,305
2,173
18,132
337
22.632
22,266
2,345
19,921
366
25,818
25,185
2,713
22,472
633
30,042
28,754
2,809
25,945
1,288
26,758
25,348
2,591
22,757
1,410
29,290
27,771
2,697
25,074
1,519
6,445
1,638
-1,936
-1,990
1,031
2,759
4,898
6,082
4,016
5,505
9,396
1,369
8,027
3,185
842
2,343
1,656
744
912
-625
2,986
951
2,035
5,636
1,409
4,227
6,113
1,502
4,611
3,053
1,029
2,024
3,260
-2,983
385
-3,368
1,047
153
521
-368
472
-776
498
-1,274
2,414
6,219
1,441
4,778
-714
1,802
1,759
15,912
10,838
6,425
6,365
60
4,821
4,770
51
8,710
5,557
4,946
611
3,153
5,303
3,371
3,076
295
1,932
4,351
4,307
44
5,585
3,152
3,677
-525
2,433
777
714
628
1,742
23,941
20,052
8,596
8,533
63
14,713
8,745
8,603
142
5,968
7,794
7,729
65
11,499
7,369
6,614
755
4,130
632
2
1932
87,814
1,617
Sole proprietorships and partnerships.
1931
-2,143
1,715
10,564
1,707
12, 515
4,966
4,920
46
6,996
4,550
4,604
-54
2,446
553
759
8,256
46
778
777
1
41
1,626
16,330
5,449
5,401
48
10,365
5,329
5,379
-50
5,036
516
6,456
5,247
4,363
4,109
722
721
1
608
607
1
564
563
1
613
612
1
24
13
14
14
652
651
1
22
7,501
793
792
1
-227
4,128
-738
1,557
17,155
6,233
6,141
92
10,448
6,496
6,616
-120
3,952
474
4,295
706
699
7
-31
963
1,463
1,482
20,175
18,359
7,062
6,847
215
12,649
7,031
7,060
-29
6,776
6,523
253
11,097
6,762
6,541
221
5,618
4,335
464
486
4,700
5,127
783
755
28
31
1,390
19,285
7,203
6,936
267
11,580
7,263
7,429
-166
4,317
502
5,354
814
785
29
30
Rental income of persons .
5,425
4,778
3,761
2,713
1,971
1,694
1,661
1,776
785
764
21
42
2,081
2,560
2,742
31
Net interest
1,992
1,904
1,949
1,913
1,814
1,788
1,793
1,779
1,792
1,753
1,768
758
758
745
13
771
771
757
14
768
768
754
14
705
705
691
14
631
631
617
14
693
693
679
14
778
778
760
18
842
842
818
24
870
870
838
32
860
38
924
924
884
40
Proprietors' income—business and professionals
32
33
34
35
Government enterprises
Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salaries-
34
30
4,335
4,545
4,658
4,445
4,695
5,578
5,946
7,266
6,902
7,626
7,599
37
38
39
Income originating in general government
Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salaries _.
4,335
4,192
143
4,545
4,396
149
4,658
4,503
155
4,445
4,274
171
4,695
4,524
171
5,578
5,396
182
5,946
5,740
206
7,266
7,047
219
6,902
6,654
248
7,626
7,363
263
7,599
7,313
286
40
Income originating in households and institutions 4__
4,490
3,624
3,039
2,493
2,238
2,381
2,491
2,780
3,101
2,929
3,093
1,871
1,860
1,677
1,667
1,802
1,792
1,882
1,871
2,044
2,029
2,272
2,249
2,152
2,126
2,276
2,250
36
41
42
43
Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salaries
44
Net interest 5
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
5:
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Income originating in the rest of the worldWages and salaries 6
Corporate profits after tax i
Net interest
Gross national product..
Business
Income originating in business (line 2 above)
Other
Indirect business tax and nontax liability
Business transfer payments
Corporate gifts to nonprofit institutions...
Consumer bad debts
Other
Statistical discrepancy
Less: Subsidies minus current surplus of government enterprises.
Capital consumption allowances
General government (line 36 above)
Households and institutions (line 40 above)
Rest of the world (line 45 above)
2,863
2,853
2,652
2, 641
2, 278
2, 267
10
11
11
11
10
10
11
15
23
26
26
1,627
972
761
622
561
579
609
736
829
777
817
810
1
232
577
746
547
393
323
303
367
300
283
386
313
1
137
608
1
-4
550
1
-34
426
1
-2
324
1
60
242
1
159
207
1
104
195
1
122
160
1
247
138
2
184
127
91,105
76,271
58,466
55,964
64,975
72,502
82,743
90,780
85,227
91,095
82,190
68,027
51,135
48,708
56,713
63,698
72,397
80,494
74,286
80,090
66, 814
15,376
7,155
534
35
390
109
-977
-123
51, 464
16, 563
6, 858
6411
40
497
112
84(1
35, 216
15, 919
6,768
737
31
598
108
754
-4J
32,903
15, 805
7,055
659
27
530
102
948
18
40,
16,016
7,815
641
27
508
106
731
283
48, 253
15, 445
8,190
594
28
458
108
-171
403
54, 565
17,832
8,663
594
30
461
103
1,118
39
63,332
17,162
9,15'
56'
33
428
106
-248
60
56, 640
17, 646
9,154
429
27
296
106
456
176
61. 748
18,342
9,365
451
31
316
104
1,173
485
7,615
7,161
7,112
7,235
7,496
7, 746
7,783
7,838
4,445
4,695
5,578
5,946
7,266
6,902
7,626
7,599
2,493
2,238
2,381
2,491
2,780
3,101
2,929
3,093
393
323
303
367
300
283
386
313
104,436
94,801
78,179
16, 622
7,003
587
3:
452
103
268
-147
8,617
4,335
4,490
810
8,541
4,545
3,624
746
-4(1
8,16(i
4,658
3,039
547
1. This series is net only of imputed interest received, and of cash interest received by firms
engaged in lending as a principal activity; cash interest received by other proprietors is considered to be received in the proprietors' personal capacity.
2. Includes all mutual financial institutions; producers' and consumers' cooperatives; nonprofit organizations, such as trade associations furnishing services to business; individually
owned property including owner-occupied homes; and miscellaneous forms of business organization.
3. Estimated patronage refunds and stock dividends paid by farmers' cooperatives and
profits of mutual nonlife insurance companies.
135
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
Table 1-12.—National Income and Gross National Product by Legal Form of Organization, 1941-57
[Millions of dollars]
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
180,879
198,177
223,487
217,690
241,876
279,313
292,155
305,573
301,794
330,206
349,356
363,951
1
154,453
174,625
198,246
189,887
211,482
241,557
250,060
261,619
256,538
281,760
297,010
308,045
2
86,302
104, 710
120,404
115,527
132,302
153,309
158, 502
168,958
163, 257
184, 209
195,167
202,057
3
68,969
65, 748
5,143
60,605
3,221
81.168
77, 254
6,026
71, 228
3,914
90,049
85,906
6,733
79,173
4,143
87, 729
83,362
6,743
76, 619
4,367
97, 404
91, 736
7,607
84,129
5,668
113, 296
106, 227
8,122
98,105
7,069
121, 609
114,089
8,338
105, 751
7,520
132,411
124, 240
8,676
115, 564
8,171
130,420
121,896
9,006
112, 890
8,524
142,184
132, 505
10.356
122,149
9,679
154,017
143,393
na
na
10,624
161, 949
150,024
na
na
11,925
4
5
6
7
8
18,185
16,863
22,937
30,012
27,394
34,663
39,739
36, 551
36,188
32,330
41, 568
41,172
39,953
9
18, 749
10, 689
8,060
-564
22,126
9,111
13,015
-5,263
28,836
11, 283
17, 553
- 5 , 899
32,164
12,483
19,681
-2,152
25, 538
10,375
15,163
1,856
39,628
17, 865
21, 763
-4,965
40,938
22,447
18,491
-1,199
35, 570
19,459
16,111
981
37,185
20, 222
16,963
-997
32, 648
17,220
15,428
-318
43,304
21, 827
21, 477
-1,736
43, 732
22,422
21,310
-2,560
41, 501
21,649
19, 852
-1,548
10
11
12
13
1945
1942
104,710
137,694
170,310
182,639
181,248
118,497
140,564
145,771
141,053
56,437
72,904
88,087
90,110
82,414
41,051
39,070
3,472
35,598
1,981
52,293
49,965
3,691
46, 274
2,328
63, 595
60,761
3,745
57,016
2,834
66, 525
63,346
3,759
59,587
3,179
63,485
60,316
4,118
56,198
3,169
14, 280
19,453
23, 543
22,740
20, 657
11,415
9,242
-1,204
24,316
14,074
10, 242
-773
23,027
12,949
10,078
-287
91,373
16, 751
7,610
9,141
- 2 , 471
1943
1944
1941
1946
Line
1,106
1,158
949
845
744
470
605
343
404
235
274
342
359
507
457
-22
155
14
27,632
37,005
43,045
45,938
48,629
56,963
57,978
64, 253
58,863
62,684
70,238
71,933
71,859
71,353
74, 722
77, 729
79,686
15
9,783
9,434
349
12, 732
12,311
421
14,648
14, 203
445
16,204
15, 733
471
17, 640
17,136
504
20,303
19, 757
546
22,326
21, 718
608
23,942
23,358
584
23,506
22,895
611
24,875
24,123
752
27, 714
26,837
877
29,354
28,460
894
30,883
29,959
924
30, 703
29, 693
1,010
32, 270
31,166
1,104
34,898
33,670
1,228
36,382
35,013
1,369
16
17
18
17,341
10,837
11,452
-615
6,504
23,811
13,803
14,170
-367
10,008
28,038
16,674
16,830
-156
11,364
29,424
17,899
17,968
-69
11, 525
30, 713
18,889
18,995
-106
11,824
36,393
35,303
19, 759
21,230
-1,471
15,544
39, 886
22,097
22,507
-410
17, 789
34, 870
21,944
21,481
463
12, 926
37, 277
23,277
24,371
-1,094
14,000
41,874
25, 540
25,867
-327
16,334
41,877
26, 540
26,339
201
15,337
40,247
26,969
27,137
-168
13, 278
39,908
27, 217
27, 266
-49
12, 691
41,666
29,899
30,097
-198
11, 767
42.034
30, 402
30, 899
-497
11, 632
42, 524
30,926
31, 223
-297
11. 598
19
20
21
22
23
21,141
22, 846
-1, 705
15, 252
508
462
359
310
276
267
349
425
487
532
650
702
729
742
786
797
780
24
6,219
7,374
7,957
8,195
8,402
9,318
9,981
11,305
12,966
13,820
15,051
16,170
17, 281
18,375
19,030
20,125
22,057
25
916
887
29
986
958
28
1,053
1,025
28
1,110
1,080
30
1,164
1,135
29
1,395
1.363
32
1,558
1,524
34
1,763
1,717
46
1,869
1,817
52
2,084
2,018
66
2,290
2,212
78
2,465
2,369
96
2,683
2,581
102
2,836
2,718
118
3,041
2,905
136
3,313
3,161
152
3,550
3,377
173
26
27
28
60
96
149
141
122
180
189
308
713
264
455
356
476
534
483
401
477
29
3,465
4,547
5,097
5,413
5,634
6,208
6,510
7,297
8,274
9,013
9,431
10,154
10,528
10,869
10,698
10,887
11,837
30
1,778
1,745
1,658
1,531
1,482
1,535
1,724
1,937
2,110
2,459
2,875
3,195
3, 594
4,136
4,808
5,524
6,193
31
1,085
1,085
1,040
45
1,214
1.214
1,167
47
1,475
1,475
1,427
48
1,528
1,528
1,477
51
1,608
1,608
1,550
58
1,870
1,870
1,808
62
1,956
1,956
1,894
62
2,284
2,284
2,213
71
2,531
2, 531
2,450
81
2,676
2,676
2,580
96
2,959
2,959
2,867
92
3,455
3,455
3,352
103
3,521
3,521
3,436
85
3,553
3,553
3,490
63
3,799
3,799
3,692
107
3,989
3,989
3,817
172
4,245
4,245
4,017
228
32
33
34
35
9,415
15,118
25,562
32,188
35,156
20,722
16,663
17,397
19,388
20,814
27,262
31,011
31,755
32,303
33,967
36,280
38,624
36
9,415
9,146
269
15,118
14,809
309
25, 562
25,190
372
32,188
31,491
697
35,156
33,352
1,804
20, 722
18,770
1,952
16,663
15,435
1,228
17,397
16, 542
855
19,388
18,035
1,353
20,814
19,672
1,142
27, 262
25,973
1,289
31,011
29,588
1,423
31, 755
30,417
1,338
32,303
30,880
1,423
33,967
32. 262
1,705
36, 280
34, 208
2,072
38,624
36,082
2,542
37
38
39
3,559
3,714
3,817
4,257
4,670
5,133
6,065
6,853
7,410
8,392
9,098
9,761
10,885
11,336
12,696
14,045
15,038
40
2,533
2,503
30
2,918
2,889
29
3,240
3,208
32
3,719
3,684
35
4,117
4,077
40
4,421
4,373
48
5,069
5,016
53
5,518
5,462
56
5,795
5,735
60
6,319
6,244
75
6,786
6,652
134
7,093
6,952
141
7,539
7,377
162
7,758
7,560
198
8,570
8,351
219
9,281
9,034
247
9,867
9,587
280
41
42
43
1,026
796
577
538
553
712
996
1,335
1,615
2,073
2,312
2,668
3,346
3,578
4,126
4,764
5,171
44
363
365
367
423
369
571
824
991
1,005
1,188
1,396
1,323
1,314
1,617
1,783
2,021
2,244
45
6
231
126
10
225
130
14
238
115
12
293
118
11
228
130
17
425
129
17
689
118
16
836
139
16
832
157
18
1,000
170
20
1,215
161
25
1,121
177
20
1,126
168
22
1,413
182
21
1,558
204
21
1,761
239
20
1,925
299
46
47
48
125,822
159,133
192,513
211,393
213,558
210,663
234,289
259,426
258,054
284,599
328,975
346,999
365,385
363,112
397,469
419,214
440,328
49
112,485
139,936
162,767
174,525
173,363
184,237
210,737
234,185
230,251
254,205
291,219
304,904
321,431
317,856
349,023
366,868
384,422
50
91,373
21,112
11,296
502
58
332
112
375
102
118,497
21,439
11, 769
495
98
283
114
-830
150
140,564
22,203
12, 735
505
159
246
100
-1,720
183
145, 771
28,754
14,127
506
234
165
107
2,766
652
141,053
32,310
15, 522
532
266
150
116
4,467
760
154,453
29,784
17,313
557
214
193
150
2,088
868
174, 625
36,112
18,641
674
241
258
175
3,541
-226
198, 246
35, 939
20,405
739
239
298
202
-847
-171
189,887
40,364
21,637
781
223
353
205
510
-162
211, 482
42, 723
23, 747
843
253
328
262
-734
198
241, 557
49,662
25.647
985
343
328
314
1,247
187
250,060
54,844
28,140
1,169
399
398
372
1,374
-154
261, 619
59,812
30, 203
1,369
494
468
407
1,283
-431
256, 538
61, 318
30,151
1,262
314
521
427
853
-243
281,760
67, 263
32,865
1,457
415
674
468
988
33
297,010
69,858
35,631
1,526
415
574
537
-935
1,045
308,045
76, 377
37,644
1,595
415
574
606
725
1,330
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
9,041
10,155
10,866
12,007
12,549
10, 694
13,030
15,471
17,274
19,065
21,970
24,007
26, 526
28,809
31,986
34,681
37.743
60
9,415
15,118
25,562
32,188
35,156
20,722
16,663
17,397
19,388
20,814
27,262
31,011
31,755
32,303
33,967
36,280
38,624
61
3,559
3,714
3,817
4,257
4,670
5,133
6,065
6,853
7,410
8,392
9,098
9,761
10,885
11,336
12,696
14,045
15,038
62
363
365
367
423
369
571
824
991
1,005
1,188
1,396
1,323
1,314
1,617
1,783
2,021
2,244
63
4. Includes private households; and religious organizations, social and athletic clubs, labor
organizations, nonprofit schools and hospitals, charitable and welfare organizations, and all
other nonprofit organizations furnishing services to individuals.
5. This series measures gross interest paid; it is termed "net interest" only because it is a
component of that distributive share.
6. Pay of permanent United States residents employed in the United States by foreign
governments and international organizations.
7. Measures net inflow from abroad of dividends and branch profits; the net inflow from
abroad of undistributed profits and corporate profits tax liability is excluded from this line
and from the national income aggregate.
136
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
in Constant Dollars, 1929—40 1
Table I—13.—Gross National Product by Legal Form of Organization,
IBillions of 1954 dollars]
1929
Line
Gross national product..
1930
1932
1931
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1940
1939
181.8
164.5
153.0
130.1
126.6
138.5
152.9
173.3
183.5
175.1
189.3
205.8
159.5
143.2
132.3
110.3
106.3
116.3
129.5
147.2
158.2
148.4
162.4
177.9
General government
10.3
10.8
11.0
10.8
11.5
13.3
14.2
16.7
15.7
17.0
17.2
17.7
Households and institutions..
10.4
8.8
8.2
7.7
7.5
7.9
8.0
8.4
8.7
8.4
8.7
9.2
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.2
1.0
.9
1.2
1.0
1.0
Business
Rest of the world
1. Footnotes to table 1-12 are relevant to this table also. Implicit price deflators are shown in table VII-8.
Table 1-14.—National Income by Corporate and Noncorporate Form of Organization,
Rates, 1946-47
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly
Totals at Annual
[Billions of dollars]
1946
Line
1947
I
II
180.9
193.1
194.5
198.4
206.5
198.2
86.3
98.3
103.3
106.3
110.9
104.7
74.6
71.1
3.5
69.0
65.7
3.2
78.3
74.5
3.7
79.6
75.7
3.8
81.8
77.8
4.0
85.1
80.9
4.1
81.2
77.3
3.9
20.7
29.6
12.2
17.4
-8.9
16.9
22.1
9.1
13.0
-5.3
19.5
29.2
11.4
17.8
-9.7
23.1
27.8
10.9
16.9
-4.7
23.8
27.9
10.9
17.0
-4.0
25.2
30.4
11.9
18.5
-5.2
22.9
28.8
11.3
17.6
-5.9
I
II
III
IV
169.6
176.6
185.2
191.9
75.9
83.8
89.8
95.7
Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salaries _
62.3
59.3
3.0
67.2
64.1
3.1
71.8
68. 5
3. 3
Corporate profits and linventory valuation adjustment '
Profits before tax
Profits tax liability
Profits after tax !
Inventory valuation adjustment
13.2
14.4
6.0
8.4
-1.2
16.1
18.9
7.8
11.1
-2.8
17. 5
25. 6
10.5
15.1
-8. 1
National income
Income originating in corporate business-
Net interest
Income originating outside corporate business.
Year
III
Year
IV
.4
.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.6
.6
.7
.6
93.8
92.8
95.4
96.1
94.6
94.7
91.2
92.2
95.5
93.5
1. Excludes corporate profits originatin g in the rest of the world sector.
Table 1-14.—National Income by Corporate and Noncorporate Form of Organization,
Rates, 1952-53
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly
Totals at Annual
[Billions of dollars]
1953
1952
Line
National income
Income originating in corporate business,.Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salaries.
s
9
10
11
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Profits before tax '
Profits tax liability
Profits after tax i .
Inventory valuation adjustment
Net interest
l
..
12 ] Income originating outside corporate business
1. Excludes corporate profits originating in the rest of the world sector.
I
II
III
IV
I
II
287.2
288.0
292.4
300.6
157.1
155.1
156.2
165.7
292.2
306.3
158.5
170.5
118.8
111. 4
7. 4
119.2
111.8
7.4
121.0
113.4
7.5
127.5
119.7
7.8
121.6
114.1
7.5
38.0
36.7
20.1
16.6
1.3
35.5
34.4
18.8
15.5
1.2
34.9
34.2
18.7
15.4
.7
37.8
37.1
20.2
16.8
.8
36.6
35.6
19.5
16.1
1.0
Year
Year
III
IV
308.7
307.2
300.1
305.6
172.2
170.5
162.7
169.0
130. 8
122. 8
8.0
133.2
125.1
8.1
133.7
125.4
8.3
131.9
123.7
8.3
132.4
124.2
8.2
39.3
39.8
21.6
18.2
-.4
38.6
40.2
21.9
18.4
-1.6
36.5
38.5
20.9
17.6
-2.0
30.3
30.3
16.6
13.7
.0
36.2
37.2
20.2
17.0
-1.0
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
.4
.4
.4
130.2
133.0
136.2
134.9
133.7
135.8
136.5
136.7
137.5
136.6
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
137
Table 1-13.—Gross National Product by Legal Form of Organization, in Constant Dollars, 1941-571
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1952
1951
1953
1954
1955
1956
Line
1957
238.1
266.9
2%. 7
317.9
314.0
282.5
282.3
293.1
292.7
318.1
341.8
353.5
369.0
363.1
392.7
402.2
407.0
1
205.8
225.1
237.8
251.2
248.6
244.1
250.3
260.4
258.2
281.8
299.5
308.7
323.7
317.9
346.2
354.1
357.7
2
22.0
32.1
50.3
58.1
57.0
29.9
22.8
22.8
23.9
24.8
30.8
33.2
32.8
32.3
32.2
32.8
33.2
3
9.2
8.8
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.6
8.2
8.7
9.2
10.1
10.3
10.4
11.1
11.3
12.5
13.4
13.9
4
1.0
.9
.8
.9
.8
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
5
Table 1-14.—National Income by Corporate and Noncorporate Form of Organization,
Rates, 1948-51
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Totals at Annual
[Billions of dollars]
1949
1948
Year
I
II
Line
Year
III
IV
220.8
217.4
217.8
214.8
217.7
222.1
233.6
250.6
261.1
241.9
270.8
278.2
282.0
286.0
279.3
1
118.8
115.3
115.9
112.1
115.5
118.1
127.3
138.6
145.1
132.3
149.8
153.5
154.2
155.7
153.3
2
90.0
85.9
4.1
89.7
85.5
4.2
88.2
83.9
4.3
86.8
82.4
4.4
86.2
81.7
4.5
87.7
83.4
4.4
89.4
84.3
5.1
94.5
89.0
5.4
100.4
94.5
5.9
105.3
99.1
6.2
97.4
91.7
5.7
110.2
103.4
6.8
113.3
106.3
7.0
113.9
106.8
7.1
115.7
108.4
7.3
113.3
106.2
7.1
3
4
5
31.5
31.5
12.3
19.3
-.1
30.0
32.2
12.5
19.7
-2.2
28.8
27.4
11.1
16.3
1.4
26.7
23.8
9.7
14.1
2.8
28.7
25.7
10.5
15.3
3.0
25.4
25.2
10.2
15.0
.2
27.4
25.5
10.4
15.2
1.9
28.5
29.2
13.2
15.9
-.7
32. 6
36.0
16.2
19.8
-3.3
38.0
45.3
20.4
24.9
-7.3
39.5
48.1
21.6
26.5
-8.5
34.7
39.6
17.9
21.8
-5.0
39.4
48.1
26.2
21.9
-8.7
39.9
40.9
22.4
18.5
-1.0
40.0
36.5
20.1
16.4
3.5
39.7
38.2
21.1
17.1
1.5
39.7
40.9
22.4
18.5
-1.2
6
7
8
9
10
.3
.3
.4
.4
.4
.4
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.3
.3
.3
.3
.3
11
102.0
102.1
116.0
109.6
121.0
124.7
127.8
130.3
126.0
12
III
IV
214.4
222.6
227.4
229.2
223.5
116.7
119.5
121.8
123.6
120.4
87.5
83.4
4.1
89.2
85.1
4.1
91.7
87.6
4.2
91.8
87.6
4.2
28.8
31.7
12.3
19.4
-2.9
30.0
32.9
12.8
20.1
-2.9
29.7
32.5
12.6
19.9
-2.8
.4
.3
.3
.3
97.8
103.1
105.6
105.6
103.1
101.9
Year
102.7
102.2
III
II
I
104.0
106.3
Year
I
II
II
I
1951
1950
IV
111.9
Table 1-14.—National Income by Corporate and Noncorporate Form of Organization,
Rates, 1954-57
III
IV
Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
[Billions of dollars]
1954
I
2J9.3
162.2
!
1
Year
II
III
IV
299.4
300.9
307.5
162.3
1956
1955
161.6
167.0
301.8
163.3
I
316.9
175.1
Year
II
III
IV
327.3
335.0
341.4
181.7
187.6
192.5
330.2
184.2
I
III
II
342.2
191.6
1957
346.2
193.1
350.8
195.4
IV
Year
I
II
357.9
349.4
361.5
364.1
200.6
195.2
202.6
Line
202.5
Year
IV
III
368.7
204.8
361.5
364.0
1
198.4
202.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
130.5
122.0
8.5
129.8
121.4
8.4
129.4
120.9
8.5
132.0
123.3
8.7
130.4
121.9
8.5
135.9
126.7
9.1
140.7
131.2
9.5
144.3
134.3
10.0
147.9
137.7
10.2
142. 2
132.5
9.7
150.0
139.8
10.2
153.3
142.9
10.4
154.4
143. 6
10.8
158.4
147.3
11.1
154.0
143.4
10.6
160. 5
148.9
11.6
162.4
150.6
11.9
163.6
151.4
12.1
161.3
149.2
12.1
161.9
150.0
11.9
31.2
31.2
16.5
14.8
.0
32.0
32.0
16.9
15.2
.0
31.7
32.4
17.1
15.3
34.4
35.0
18.5
16.5
-.5
32.3
32.6
17.2
15.4
-.3
38.8
39.9
20.2
19.7
-1.1
40.5
41.4
20.8
20.5
-.9
42.9
45.1
22.7
22.4
-2.2
44. 1
46.9
23.6
23.2
-2.8
41.6
43.3
21.8
21.5
-1.7
41.6
44.5
22.8
21.7
-2.8
39.9
43. 1
22.1
21.0
-3.2
41.0
42.5
21.8
20.7
-1.5
42.2
44.9
23.0
21.9
-2.7
41.2
43.7
22.4
21.3
-2.6
41.9
44.3
23.0
21.3
-2.4
39.9
41.5
21.7
19.8
-1.5
41.1
42.1
22.0
20.1
-1.1
37.0
38.1
19.9
18.2
-1.1
40.0
41.5
21.6
19.9
-1.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.4
.5
.5
.5
.5
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.2
.2
.2
.2
11
137.1
139.3
140.5
138.5
141.8
145.7
147.4
148.9
146.0
150.7
153.0
155.4
157.4
154.2
3159.0
161.6
163.9
163.1
161.9
12
•
n
•
137.2
138
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table 1-15.—Farm and Nonfarm Business Gross Product, in Current and Constant Dollars, 1929-40 1
1930
Line
1931
1932
1933
1934
1936
1935
1937
1938
1939
1940
89,132
[Millions of current dollars]
Business gross product..
Farm
Nonfarm
94,801
82,190
68,027
51,135
48,708
56,713
63,698
72,397
80,494
74,286
80,090
9,817
7,733
6,192
4,448
4,588
4,331
6,944
6,263
8,089
6,726
6,498
6,843
84,984
74,457
61,835
46,687
44,120
52,382
56,754
66,134
72,405
67,560
73, 592
82,289
177.9
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
Business gross product..
Farm
Nonfarm
159.5
143.2
132.3
110.3
106.3
116.3
129.5
147.2
158.2
148.4
162.4
16.5
15.1
17.6
16.6
16.3
13.5
16.5
14.1
17.6
17.8
17.8
17.5
143.0
128.1
114.6
93.8
89.9
102.7
113.0
133.1
140.5
130.6
144.7
160.4
1. Footnotes to table 1-12 are relevant to this table also. For details on farm gross product, see tables VII-9 and VII-10.
Table 1-16.—Gross National Product Originating
in General Government, Farms, and All Other Industries,
Dollars, 1909-14
in Current and
Constant
[Billions of dollars]
Line
1909
1910
1912
1911
1913
1914
Current Dollars
Gross national product...
General government..
Farms
All other industries i.
33.9
1.0
5.5
27.4
35.7
1.1
5.9
28.7
36.2
1.1
5.2
29.9
39.8
1.2
6.3
32.3
40.0
1.3
5.7
33.1
39.0
1.4
6.1
31.5
104.1
5.0
13.9
85.2
106.8
5.3
14.2
87.3
109.5
5.5
13.7
90.3
116.1
5.7
15.6
94.8
117.0
5.9
14.0
97.2
112.1
6.2
15.1
90.9
1954 Dollars
Gross national product...
General governmentFarms
All other industries L
1. This subtotal exceeds nonfarm business gross product in table 1-15 by the amounts of gross national product originating in households and institutions, and in the rest of the world sector;
the latter have not been separately estimatedforthe pre-1929 period.
Table 1-17.—Relation of Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income, 1929-40
[Millions of dollars]
Line
1929
Gross national product
Less: Capital consumption allowances
Equals: Net national product
Less: Indirect business tax and nontax liability
Business transfer payments
Statistical discrepancy
Plus: Subsidies minus current surplus of govern
ment enterprises.
Equals: National income
Less: Undistributed corporate profits
Corporate profits tax liability
Corporate inventory valuation adjustment
Contributions for social insurance
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements
Plus: Net interest paid by government
Government transfer payments to persons
Business transfer payments
Equals: Personal income
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
104,436
91,105
76,271
58,466
55,964
64,975
72,502
82,743
90,780
85,227
91,095
8,617
8,541
8,166
7,615
7,161
7,112
7,235
7,496
7,746
7,783
7,838
8,148
95,819
82,564
68,105
50,851
48,803
57,863
65,267
75,247
83,034
77,444
83,257
92,470
7,003
587
268
7,155
534
-977
6,859
(>49
840
6,768
737
754
7,055
659
948
7,815
641
731
8,190
594
-171
8,663
594
1,118
9,157
567
-248
9,154
429
456
9,365
451
1,173
10,021
431
804
-147
-123
-49
-45
18
283
403.
39
60
176
485
420
100,618
87,814
75,729
59,708
42,547
40,159
48,959
57,057
64,911
73,618
67,581
72,753
81,634
2,446
1,369
472
243
0
-3,010
842
3,260
253
0
-5,366
498
2,414
262
0
-5,967
385
1,047
278
0
-2,426
521
-2,143
285
0
-1,615
744
-625
304
0
-669
951
-227
333
0
-217
1,409
-738
598
0
48
1,502
-31
1,800
0
-916
1,029
963
1,977
0
1,174
1,441
-714
2,136
0
2,443
2,834
-200
2,282
0
983
909
587
964
999
534
1,084
2,065
649
1,141
1,433
737
1,170
1,457
659
1,230
1,553
641
1,141
1,806
594
1,101
2,926
594
1,204
1,851
567
1,192
2,405
429
1,205
2,512
451
1,291
2,683
431
85,763
76,881
65,698
50,115
47,208
53,575
60,210
68,480
73,921
68,554
72,884
78,680
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME139
Table I—15.—Farm and Nonfarm
1942
1941
1944
1943
1945
1946
Business
1947
Gross Product,
1948
1949
in Current
1950
1951
and Constant
1952
1941—57 l
Dollars,
1954
1953
1955
1956
1957
Line
^Millions of current dollars!
112,485
139,936
162,767
174,525
173,363
184,237
210,737
234,185
230,251
254,205
291,219
304,904
321,431
317,856
349,023
366,868
384,422
1
9,363
13, 388
15, 288
15,658
16, 230
19, 280
20, 747
23, 821
19, 295
20, 537
23,552
22, 759
20, 895
20, 344
19, 612
19, 388
19, 273
2
103,122
126,548
147,479
158,867
157,133
164,957
189,990
210, 364
210, 956
233, 668
267, 667
282,145
300, 536
297, 512
329, 411
347, 480
365,149
3
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
205.8
225.1
237.8
251.2
248.6
244.1
250.3
260.4
258.2
281.8
299.5
308.7
323.7
317.9
346.2
354.1
357.7
4
18.8
20.4
18.8
19.2
18.1
18.4
16.9
19.3
18.3
19.3
18.1
18.8
19.5
20.3
21.4
21.5
20.8
5
187.0
204.6
219.0
232.0
230.5
225.7
233.4
241.1
239.9
262.5
281.4
289.9
304.3
297.5
324.7
332.5
336.9
6
Table I—16.—Gross National Product Originating in General Government, Farms, and All Other Industries,
Dollars, 1915-28
in Current and
Constant
[Billions of dollars]
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1921
1920
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
40.5
1.4
6. 3
32.8
48.9
1.5
6.8
40.5
61.1
2.2
11.0
47.9
77.1
5.1
12.1
60.0
84.9
3.6
12.8
68.6
91.9
2.9
12.2
76.8
70.3
3.2
7.0
60.1
75.0
3.1
7.8
64.1
86.2
3.2
8.7
74.3
85.9
3.4
8.4
74.1
94.5
3.5
10.2
80 8
98.6
3.7
9.5
85.4
111.4
6.4
16.0
89.0
120.0
6.6
14.6
98.8
120.5
132.9
16.9
15.1
100.9
132.6
11.7
15.2
105.7
125.6
8.7
15.1
101.7
114.9
8.6
13.7
92.7
133.2
8.4
14.8
110.1
149.2
8.5
15.6
125.1
149.0
8.8
15.0
125.2
161. 8
9.2
16.0
136.6
170.8
9.4
15.6
145.8
8.5
15.6
96.4
1928
1927
Line
83.3
98.8
4.1
9.5
85.2
1
2
3
4
170.5
9.8
16.3
144.5
171.8
10.0
15.7
146.1
5
6
7
8
96.5
3.9
9.2
Table I—17.—Relation of Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income, 1941—57
[Millions of dollars]
1941
1942
1943
125,822
159,133
192,513
9,041
10,155
10, 866
Line
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
211,393
213,558
210,663
234,289
259,426
258,054
284,599
328,975
346,999
365,385
363,112
397,469
419,214
440,328
17, 274
19,065
34, 681
37, 743
2
12,007
12, 549
10, 694
13,030
15, 471
1
21, 970
24,007
26, 526
28, 809
31,986
365,483
384,533
402,585
3
116,781
148,978
181,647
199,386
201,009
199,969
221,259
243,955
240,780
265,534
307,005
322,992
338,859
334,303
11,296
502
375
11, 769
495
-830
12, 735
505
-1,720
14,127
506
2,766
15, 522
532
4,467
17, 313
557
2,088
18, 641
674
3,541
20,405
739
-847
21, 637
781
510
23, 747
843
-734
25, 647
985
1,247
28,140
1,169
1,374
30,203
1,369
1,283
30,151
1,262
853
32, 865
1,457
988
35, 631
1,526
-935
37,644
1,595
725
4
5
6
102
150
183
652
760
868
-226
-171
-162
198
187
-154
-431
-243
33
1,045
1,330
7
104,710
137,694
170,310
182,639
181,248
180,879
198,177
223,487
217,690
241,876
279,313
292,155
305,573
301,794
330,206
349,356
363,951
8
4,914
7,610
-2,471
2,784
0
5,178
11,415
-1,204
3,468
0
5,996
14,074
-773
4,516
209
5,698
12, 949
-287
5,173
-193
3,597
10,689
-564
6,138
14
7,656
9,111
-5,263
5,981
-30
11, 721
11,283
-5,899
5,683
15
13, 274
12, 483
-2,152
5,220
35
8,522
10, 375
1,856
5,737
-46
13, 555
17,865
-4,965
6,870
24
10, 677
22,447
-1,199
8,170
74
8,278
19,459
981
8,614
-22
8,864
20, 222
-997
8,728
-76
7,002
17,220
-318
9,695
0
11,820
21,827
-1,736
10, 995
0
11,033
22, 422
-2,560
12, 313
0
9,422
21, 649
-1,548
14,168
0
9
10
11
12
13
1,289
2,611
502
1,517
2,648
495
2,140
2,459
505
2,809
3,082
506
3,683
5,633
532
4,463
10,854
557
4,420
11,113
674
4,527
10,542
739
4,670
11, 622
781
4,794
14, 304
843
4,973
11,590
985
5,016
12, 041
1,169
5,171
12, 887
1,369
5,407
14, 961
1,262
5,389
16,050
1,457
5,745
17,094
1,526
6,174
19,868
1,595
14
15
16
96,275
123,497
151,392
165,696
171,222
179,298
191,581
210,435
208,319
228,468
256,692
273,071
288,259
289,825
310,196
330,513
347,897
17
466759 0—59
140
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table 1-18.—Relation of Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
Rates, 1946-47
[Billions of dollars]
1946
Line
Gross national productLess: Capital consumption allowances
Indirect business tax and nontax liabilityBusiness transfer payments.-.
Statistical discrepancy
Plus: Government transfer payments to persons
Net interest paid by government
Dividends...
Business transfer payments
Equals: Personal income
_
IV
Year
206.3
217.1
221.2
210.7
226.0
230.0
235.6
245.1
234.3
10.5
17.0
.6
10.8
17.7
.6
10.7
17.3
11.9
17.9
.6
12.9
18.2
.7
13.3
18.7
.7
14.1
19.7
.7
13.0
18.6
.7
2.8
3.2
11.3
18.0
.6
-.4
169.6
Less: Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Contributions for social insurance
E xcess of wage accruals over disbursements
III
10.1
16. 5
1.7
Equals: National income
II
198.0
3.0
Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises_
Year
IV
III
13. 5
6.1
.8
12.0
4.4
5.3
.5
171.4
1.2
.4
176.6
16.5
6.1
185.2
17.9
5.9
.0
11.1
4.5
5.6
.6
176.7
2.1
.1
191.9
180.9
21.2
5.8
.0
17.3
6.0
.0
10.6
4.5
5.9
.6
9.7
4.5
6.4
.6
10.9
4.5
5.8
182.9
186.0
179.3
2.3
3.5
4.2
3.9
3.5
-.1
-.2
-.3
-.3
-.2
193.1
194.5
20.2
6.1
.0
10.1
4.4
6.6
.6
188.6
23.8
6.1
.0
198.4
24.5
5.3
.0
206.5
26.0
5.3
.0
198.2
23.6
5.7
.0
13.7
4.4
6.4
.7
193.8
10.7
4.4
6.8
.7
11.1
4.4
6.5
.7
197.8
191.6
4.4
6.3
.7
186.0
Table 1-18.—Relation of Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
Rates, 1952-53
[Billions of dollars]
1953
1952
Line
Gross national product
Less: Capital consumption allowances
Indirect business tax and nontax liability
Business transfer payments
Statistical discrepancy.._
II
III
IV
Year
341.3
347.0
358.6
347.0
364.5
368.8
367.1
361.0
365.4
23.9
28.1
1.2
24.1
1.2
.8
24. 7
29. 2
1. 2
2. 6
24.0
28.1
1.2
25.6
29.8
1.3
26.2
30.1
1.4
2.0
26.8
30.4
1.4
27.4
30.4
1.4
26.5
30.2
1.4
-.2
_ 2
292.4
300.6
36.0
8.6
38.9
8.8
.0
12.3
5.0
9.0
1.2
275.6
2.3
Equals: National income
Less: Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment-.
Contributions for social insurance
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements
287.2
Year
23.4
27.0
1.1
-. 1
Equals: Personal income
IV
341.0
Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises
Plus: Government transfer payments to persons
Net interest paid by government
Dividends
Business transfer payments
III
39.1
8.6
.1
11.6
5. 0
9.0
1.1
266.1
.0 I
-. 1 ;
288.0 |
36.6 j
28.3
8. 5 i
-1 I
n.7 ;
5.0 !
8 9|
1.2
269.7
1.4
1. I
1.2
1.3
-.5
-.4
300.1
305.6
A
-.2
-.4
306.3
12.5
5.0
9.0
1.2
292.2
37.7
8.6
.0
12.0
5.0
9.0
1.2
280.6
273.1
285.4
40.5
8.8
.0
12.7
5.1
9.3
1.3
308.7
307.2
39.8
8.9
-.1
37.5
8.7
-.1
31.4
8.5
-.1
12.7
5.1
9.4
1.4
12.8
5.2
9.4
1.4
13.4
5.3
9.4
1.4
37.3
8.7
-.1
12.9
5.2
9.2
1.4
288.7
289.8
289.7
288.3
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AND NATIONAL INCOME
141
Table I—18.—Relation of Gross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
Rates, 1948-51
[Billions of dollars]
1951
Line
Year
II
III
IV
249.5
257.7
264.0
265.9
259.4
14.8
19.6
.7
15.4
20.3
15.5
20.8
.8
-.5
16.1
20.9
.8
-1.2
-.1
15.5
20.4
.7
-.8
o
211A
I
1950
1949
1948
Year
III
IV
259.8
256.4
258.8
257.0
258.1
265.8
274.4
16.6
21.0
.8
.6
17.0
21.5
.8
-.5
17.5
22.1
.8
.4
18.0
21.9
.8
1.5
17.3
21.6
.8
.5
18.5
22.3
.8
2.3
18.9
23.3
.8
-2.1
-.3
2
—. 1
o
-L5
o
-.2
-.1
214.4
222.6
227.4
229.2
223.5
220.8
29.6
5.2
.1
30.9
5.1
.1
30.6
5.3
-.2
32.4
5.3
.1
30.8
5.2
.0
29.6
5.8
.1
11.0
4.5
6.9
.7
10.8
4.5
7.1
.7
10.4
4.5
7.4
.8
9.9
4.6
7.6
.8
10.5
4.5
7.2
202.7
209.6
214.8
214.4
210.4
I
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
293.2
304.3
284.6
317.8
326.4
333.8
338.1
329.0
1
19.1
25.2
.8
-2.3
19.8
24.2
.9
-1.3
19.1
23.7
.8
7
20.7
25.9
1.0
-.3
21.5
25.0
1.0
1.0
22.4
25.4
1.0
3.1
23.2
26.3
1.0
1.7
22.0
25.6
1.0
1.2
2
3
4
5
6
III
II
I
II
.0
—. 2
.1
.2
.3
.3
.2
.3
2
.2
.1
.2
217.8
214.8
217.7
222.1
233.6
250.6
261.1
241.9
270.8
278.2
282.0
286.0
279.3
7
27.6
5.7
-.3
29.6
5.7
.0
26.2
5.7
.0
28.2
5.7
.0
29.4
6.6
.0
33.5
6.7
.0
39.2
6.9
.0
40.6
7.3
.1
35.7
6.9
.0
40.4
8.1
.2
41.1
8.2
-.1
41.2
8.1
.8
41.1
8.3
-.6
41.0
8.2
.1
8
9
10
11.2
4.6
7.4
.8
11.7
4.7
7.3
.8
11.9
4.7
7.3
.8
11.8
4.7
7.8
.8
11.6
4.7
7.5
.8
20.6
4.7
7.9
.8
14.2
4.8
8.3
.8
11.1
4.8
9.5
.8
11.3
4.8
11. 1
.9
14.3
4.8
9.2
.8
11.3
4.9
8.9
1.0
11.6
4.9
8.7
1.0
11.7
5.0
9.0
1.0
11.7
5.0
9.3
1.0
11.6
5.0
9.0
1.0
11
12
13
14
209.3
208.9
207.2
207.9
208.3
220.2
221.5
230.8
241.2
228.5
248.1
255.2
258.7
264.3
256.7
15
Tabls I—18.—Relation, of G ross National Product, National Income, and Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual
Rates, 1954-57
[Billions of dollars]
I
1
!
|
1956
1955
1954
Year
II
III
IV
360.0
358.9
362.0
370.8
363.1
27.9
30.1
1.3
1.0
28.5
30.2
1.3
-.8
29.1
29.8
1.2
.8
29.9
30.5
1.2
1.7
28.8
30.2
1.3
.9
Year
in
1957
Year
Line
Year
II
III
IV
384.3
393.0
403.4
408.9
397.5
410.8
414.9
420.5
430.5
419.2
436.3
441.2
445.6
438.9
440.3
1
30.8
31.4
1.3
3.7
31.6
32.8
1.4
_ 2
32.4
33.3
1.5
1.2
33.0
34.0
1.5
-.9
32.0
32.9
1.5
1.0
33.7
34.5
1.5
2
34.3
35.3
1.5
-1.3
35.0
35.8
1.5
-1.5
35.7
37.0
1.5
-.5
34.7
35.6
1.5
— .9
36. 6
37.1
1.6
.9
37.5
37.8
1.6
1.5
38.1
37.9
1.6
.7
38.5
37.7
1.6
.7
37.7
37.6
1.6
.7
2
3
4
5
6
I
II
I
IV
I
II
III
IV
-.4
-.3
o
L
.0
-.2
-.1
.0
.1
2
.0
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.0
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.3
299.3
299.4
300.9
307.5
301.8
316.9
327.3
335.0
341.4
330.2
342.2
346.2
350.8
357.9
349.4
361.5
364.1
368.7
361.5
364.0
7
32.5
9.6
.0
33.3
9.6
.0
33.0
9.7
.0
36.1
9.9
.0
33.7
9.7
.0
40.3
10.6
.1
41.9
10.8
.5
44.4
11.2
— .6
45.8
11.4
.0
43. 1
11.0
.0
43.3
11.9
.0
41.6
12.1
.0
42.8
12
44.0
12.7
.0
42.9
12.3
.0
43.7
14.0
.0
42.0
14.1
.0
43.1
14.3
.0
38.8
14.2
.0
41.9
14.2
.0
8
9
10
14.1
5.4
9.4
1.3
14.9
5.4
9.5
1.3
15.2
5.4
9.7
1.2
15.9
5.4
10.1
1.2
15.0
5.4
9.8
1.3
15.7
5.3
10.2
1.3
16.1
5.3
10.5
1.4
16.1
5.4
10.9
1.5
16.2
5.5
12.2
1.5
16.0
5.4
11.2
1.5
16.6
5.5
11.7
1.5
17.0
17.3
5.8
12.2
1.5
17.6
5.9
11.8
1.5
17.1
5. 7
12.0
1.5
18.4
6.1
12.5
1.6
19.9
6.2
12.6
1.6
20.0
6.2
12.7
1.6
21.3
6.2
12.0
1.6
19.9
6.2
12.4
1.6
11
12
13
14
287.4
287.6
289.7
294.2
289.8
298.5
307.5
313.8
319.7
310.2
322.3
332.3
338.1
330.5
342. 3
348.4
351.8
349.7
347.9
15
—•
12! 0
1.5
328.7
:l
II. Personal Income and Outlay"
PAGE
II—1.
Personal Income and Its Disposition, 1929-57 (3 and 36)
Personal Income and Its Disposition, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals
at Annual Rates, 1946-57 (47)
II—3. Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Totals at Annual Rates,
1946-57 (52)
*
144
11-2.
11-4.
Personal Consumption Expenditures, by Type of Product, 1946-57 (30)
146
148
150
11-5.
Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type, in Constant Dollars,
1946-57
II—6. Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57 (51)
II—7. Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type, Quarterly, 1946—57
(50)
154
II—8. Personal Income, by States and Regions, 1929-57
156
II-9.
158
Per Capita Personal Income, by States and Regions, 1929-57
11-10. Disposable Personal Income, Total and Per Capita, by States and Regions,
Selected Years, 1929-55
11—11. Distribution of Consumer Units and Their Family Personal Income by
Income Brackets, Selected Years, 1944-56
11-12. Distributions of Nonfarm Families, Farm Operator Families, and Unattached Individuals and Their Family Personal Income, by Income
Brackets, 1953-56
11-13. Distribution of Family Personal Income Among Quintiles of Consumer
Units, Selected Years, 1944-56
*Figures in parentheses refer to corresponding tables in the 1954 National Income supplement.
151
152
160
161
161
161
144
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table II-l.—Personal Income and Its Disposition, 1929-40
[Millions of dollars]
Line
Personal income.
Wage and salary disbursements
Commodity-producing industries >
Manufacturing only
Distributive industries '
Service industries 1
Government
Other labor income-
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
85,763
76,881
65,698
50,115
47,208
53,575
50,423
21, 492
16, 092
15, 558
8,435
4,938
46,187
18,547
13,850
14,491
7,995
5,154
39,119
14,286
10,810
12, 523
7,052
5,258
30,477
9,926
7,678
9,758
5,827
4,966
28, 997
9,807
7,827
8,804
5, 244
5,142
33, 705
12,057
9,643
9,918
5,654
6,076
1936
1937
1939
1940
60,210
68,480
73,921
68,554
72,884
78,680
36, 690
13, 542
10, 829
10,708
5,939
6,501
41,920
15, 789
12, 410
11, 765
6,500
7,866
46,107
18,358
14, 571
13,162
7,094
7,493
42,976
15,274
11, 837
12,631
6,847
8,224
45,941
17,358
13,585
13, 284
7,100
8,199
49, 818
19, 714
15, 584
14,202
7,479
8,423
561
551
510
451
409
443
479
572
595
627
14, 759
8,791
5,968
11,540
7,410
4,130
8, 734
5, 581
3,153
5,316
3,384
1,932
5,599
3,166
2,433
7,010
4,564
2,446
10, 387
5,351
5,036
10, 482
6,530
3,952
12, 691
7,073
5,618
11,128
6,793
4,335
11,610
7,293
4,317
13,010
8,442
4,568
Rental income of persons..
5,425
4,778
3,761
2,713
1,971
1,661
1,776
2,081
2,560
2,742
2,885
Dividends
Personal interest income..
Transfer payments
Old-age and survivors insurance benefits..
State unemployment insurance benefits...
Veterans' benefits 2
Others
5,813
7,428
1,496
5,490
6,949
4,088
6,923
2,565
6,575
2,056
6,212
2,587
6,099
2,863
5,892
4,548
5,842
4,685
5,912
3,788
5,809
1,533
2, 714
2,170
2,116
2,194
2,400
3,520
601
932
1,574
1,140
773
1,397
545
1,571
438
1,756
474
1,926
1,889
1,631
2,418
1
2
593
1,822
3,187
5,828
2,834
10
393
531
1,900
4,043
5,781
3,114
35
518
524
2,037
Proprietors' income
Business and professional.
Farm
Less: Personal contributions for social insurance._
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments..
Federal
State and local
2,963
14
429
522
1,998
142
147
151
152
152
157
162
180
566
554
596
2,643
1,263
1,380
2,507
1,134
1,373
1,858
607
1,251
1,455
331
1,124
1,464
474
990
1,595
595
1,000
1,888
827
1,061
2,258
1,130
1,128
2,921
1,723
1,198
2,862
1,635
1,227
2,440
1,235
1,205
2,604
1,364
1,240
Equals: Disposable personal income
83,120
74,374
63,840
48,660
45,744
51,980
58,322
66,222
71,000
65,692
70,444
76,076
Less: Personal consumption expenditures..
78,952
70,968
61, 333
49, 306
46, 392
51,894
56,289
62, 616
67,259
64, 641
67, 578
71,881
4,168
3,406
2,507
-646
-648
86
2,033
3,606
3,741
1,051
2,866
4,195
134, 935
126, 058
121, 369
104, 645
102,107
109,202
120,004
134, 872
139,489
131,912
143,179
153,070
Equals: Personal saving
Addendum: Disposable personal income in constant
(1954) dollars.
1. "Commodity-producing" industries consist of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries; mining; contract construction; and manufacturing. "Distributive" industries consist of whole-
sale and retail trade, transportation, and communications and public utilities, "Service"
industries comprise finance, insurance, and real estate, and services.
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAY
145
Table II—\.—Personal Income and Its Disposition, 1941—57
[Millions of dollars]
1941
1942
96,275
123,497
62, 086
27, 523
21,714
16, 320
8,051
10,192
82,109
39,151
30,922
18, 010
8,962
15, 986
1944
1945
151,392
165,696
171,222
105,619
48, 984
40, 883
20,129
9,875
26,631
117,016
50, 401
42, 913
22, 705
10, 930
32, 980
117, 563
45,865
38, 229
24, 773
12,012
34, 913
1943
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
179,298
191,581
210,435
208,319
228,468
256,692
273,071
288,259
289,825
310,196
330,513
347,897
1
111,866
46, 043
36, 476
30, 923
14,305
20, 595
122, 843
54, 336
42, 500
35,164
15, 997
17, 346
135,179
60, 257
46, 459
38, 802
17, 349
18, 771
134, 356
56, 914
43,860
39, 016
17, 925
20, 501
146, 367
63,495
49, 393
41,313
19, 289
22, 270
170, 714
74, 885
58, 277
45, 953
21, 060
28, 816
184, 857
80, 547
62, 960
48, 749
22, 628
32, 933
198,106
88, 077
69, 881
51, 797
24, 283
33, 949
196, 259
84, 062
66, 077
52, 324
25, 481
34, 392
210, 902
91, 390
72, 252
55, 766
27, 771
35,975
227, 304
98,665
77, 697
60,134
30, 459
38, 046
238,120
102,180
80,630
63, 258
32, 563
40,119
2
3
4
5
6
7
Line
720
860
1,082
1,526
1,799
1,891
2,334
2,713
3, 021
3,823
4,786
5, 316
5, 994
6,214
7,136
7,898
8,947
8
17, 401
10, 897
6,504
23, 907
13,899
10,008
28,187
16,823
11, 364
29, 565
18,040
11, 525
30, 835
19,011
11,824
36, 573
21, 321
15, 252
35, 492
19, 948
15, 544
40,194
22, 405
17, 789
35, 583
22,657
12,926
37,541
23, 541
14, 000
42, 329
25, 995
16, 334
42, 233
26, 896
15, 337
40, 723
27, 445
13, 278
40, 442
27, 751
12, 691
42,149
30. 382
11, 767
42, 435
30, 803
11,632
43,001
31, 403
11, 598
9
10
11
3,465
4,547
5,097
5,413 •
5,634
6,208
6,510
7,297
8,274
9,013
9,431
10,154
10, 528
10, 869
10, 698
10, 887
11, 837
12
4,458
5,833
4,289
5,808
4,484
5,798
4,673
6,151
5,784
7,576
6,521
8,212
9,208
10, 263
9,029
11,245
8, 954
12,100
9,225
13, 367
9,839
14, 552
11,215
15, 770
12, 038
17, 047
2,964
165
80
507
2,212
3,588
209
62
901
2,416
11,411
378
1,094
6,754
3,185
11, 787
463
775
6,745
3,804
12, 403
664
1,730
5,104
4,905
15,147
954
1,367
4,884
7,942
12, 575
1,872
837
3,897
5,969
13, 210
2,177
992
3,863
6,178
14, 256
2,979
954
3,738
6,585
16, 223
3,633
2,015
3,848
6,727
17, 507
4,915
1,369
4,250
6,973
18, 620
5,652
1,400
4,227
7,341
12, 355
18, 772
21, 463
7,321
1,755
4,341
8,046
13
14
3,143
130
344
500
2,169
7,243
8,706
11,281
552
790
5,769
4,170
7,473
9,443
3,113
88
344
509
2,172
4,691
6,868
6,165
273
446
2,776
2,670
15
16
17
18
19
801
1,166
1,839
2,236
2,333
2,011
2,118
2,178
2,234
2,894
3,417
3,753
3,940
4,573
5,181
5,716
6,598
20
3,293
2,016
1,277
5,981
4,668
1,313
17, 845
16,517
1,328
18, 935
17, 536
1,399
20,867
19, 379
1,488
18, 729
17,162
1,567
21, 468
19,650
1,818
21,135
18,997
2,138
18, 665
16,194
2,471
20, 813
18,179
2,634
29, 211
26,278
2, 933
34, 357
31,165
3,192
35, 785
32, 359
3,426
32, 940
29,155
3,785
35, 748
31, 521
4,227
40, 059
35, 244
4,815
42, 748
37, 389
5,359
21
22
23
92,982
117,516
133,547
146,761
150,355
160,569
170,113
189,300
189,654
207,655
227,481
238,714
252,474
256,885
274,448
290,454
305,149
24
81, 875
89, 748
100, 541
109, 833
121, 699
147,109
165, 409
178, 313
181,158
195, 013
209, 805
219, 774
232, 649
238,025
256, 940
269, 400
284,442
25
11,107
27,768
33,006
36,928
28,656
13,460
4,704
10,987
8,496
12,642
17,676
18,940
19,825
18,860
17,508
21,054
20,707
26
175,107
197, 506
205,457
213, 937
211, 768
209,894
201, 079
211, 508
213, 815
230, 984
236,959
243,586
255, 024
256, 885
273, 355
284, 202
290, 066
27
2. Includes the payments listed in lines 11-14 in table III-7, and veterans' aid and bonuses
paid by State and local governments.
3. Includes the government transfer payments from table III-7 that are not shown separately above, and business transfer payments.
146
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table II-2.—Personal Income and Its Disposition, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-47 *
[Billions of dollars]
1946
Line
III
Personal income.
Wage and salary disbursements
Commodity-producing industriesManufacturing only
Distributive industries
Service industries
Government
Other labor income..
Proprietors' income
Business and professional.
Farm
IV
Year
II
III
[V
Year
171.4
176.7
182.9
186.0
179.3
188.6
186.0
193.8
197.8
191.6
106.5
40.2
31.5
28.1
13.5
24.8
110.2
44.9
35.9
30.9
14.1
20.3
113.6
48.4
38.3
31.8
14.6
18.8
116.8
50.6
40.2
32.7
15.1
18.5
111.9
46.0
36.5
30.9
14.3
20.6
119.6
52.7
41.2
33.7
15.4
17.8
121.0
53.4
42.0
34.2
15.9
17.4
123.1
54.3
42.3
35.7
16.3
16.8
127.5
56.8
44.4
36.9
16.4
17.3
122.8
54.3
42.5
35.2
16.0
17.3
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.3
21.3
15.3
37.2
20.1
17.1
33.6
19.8
13.9
34.8
19.6
15.2
36.3
20.3
16.0
35.5
19.9
15.5
1.8
1.8
1.9
2.0
34.0
20.7
13.3
35.8
21.7
14.1
38.4
21.8
16.6
38.0
21.0
17.0
5.6
7.5
11.7
.4
1.2
6.8
3.2
Rental income of persons..
5.9
6.2
6.6
6.2
6.5
6.2
6.4
6.9
6.5
Dividends
Personal interest income.
Transfer payments
Old-age and survivors insurance benefits,.
State unemployment insurance benefits...
Veterans' benefits
Other
5.3
7.4
5.9
7.6
6.4
7.8
5.8
7.6
7.9
6.3
8.1
6.4
8.3
6.8
8.5
11.1
.4
.9
6.6
3.2
10.3
.4
.7
5.8
3.3
11.4
.4
1.1
6.8
3.2
10.8
.4
.9
5.8
3.6
10.6
.5
.9
5.5
3.8
14.4
.5
.8
9.2
3.9
11.4
.5
.6
6.4
3.9
6.5
8.2
11.8
.5
.8
6.7
3.8
Less: Personal contributions for social insurance..
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments..
Federal
S tate and local
Equals: Disposable persona] income
Less: Personal consumption expenditures
Equals: Personal saving
Addendum: Disposable personal income in constant (1954) dollars.
12.5
.3
1.5
7.7
3.0
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
17.8
16.2
18.6
17.0
1.5
19.0
17.5
1.6
19.5
17.9
1.6
18.7
17.2
1.6
21.1
19.3
1.7
21.2
19.4
21.5
19.7
1.9
22.1
20.2
1.9
21.5
19.6
1.8
158.2
163.9
166.5
160.6
167.5
172.3
175.7
170.1
167.2
171.2
165.4
.5.1
4.5
4.7
202.9
202.2
201.1
1.5
153.6
137.3
16.3
143.0
152.7
155.4
147.1
159.4
15.1
11.2
11.0
13.5
8.1
218.1
207.4
200.1
209.9
202.3
1.8
164.8
163.9
197.1
215.5
1. Footnotes to table 11-1 are relevant to this table also.
Table II-2.—Personal Income and Its Disposition, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1952-53 1
[Billions of dollars]
1952
1953
Line
Personal income
Wage and salary disbursements
Commodity-producing industries_
Manufacturing only
Distributive industries
Service industries
Government
Other labor income _
Proprietors' income
Business and professional _
Farm
Rental income of persons..
Dividends
Personal interest income.
Transfer payments
Old-age and survivors insurance benefits _
State unemployment insurance benefits. _
Veterans' benefits
Other
II
III
IV
266.1
269.7
275.6
280.6
273.1
180.3
78.6
61.1
47.6
22.1
32.0
181.8
78.5
61.3
48.1
22.4
32.8
185. 1
79.7
62.1
49.2
22.8
33.4
191.9
85.1
67.2
50.1
23.2
33.5
184.9
80.5
63.0
48.7
22.6
32.9
Year
II
III
IV
Year
285.4
288.7
289.8
289.7
288.3
195.8
87.6
69.5
50.7
23.6
33.8
198.9
88.9
70.9
51.7
24.2
34.0
199.7
88.8
70.5
52.4
24.5
34.1
198.1
87.0
68.6
52.3
24.8
34.0
198.1
88.1
69.9
51.8
24.3
33.9
5.9
6.1
6.2
6.0
40.7
27.4
13.3
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.3
5.8
41.2
26.4
14.7
42.4
26.8
15.6
43.9
26.8
17.1
41.4
27.5
13.9
42.2
26.9
15.3
41.2
27.6
13.7
40.7
27.5
13.2
40.3
27.4
12.9
40.7
27.3
13.3
9.9
10.1
10.3
10.4
10.2
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.5
9.0
11.8
8.9
11.9
9.0
12.2
9.0
12.5
9.0
12.1
9.3
12.9
9.4
13.2
9.4
13.5
9.4
13.8
9.2
13.4
12.7
2.0
1.1
3.5
6.0
12.9
2.0
1.1
3.5
6.3
13.5
2.1
1.0
4.3
6.1
13.7
2.6
.8
4.1
6.2
13.2
2.2
1.0
3.9
6.2
14.0
2.7
.9
3.9
6.5
14.1
3.0
.8
3.7
6.5
14.2
3.1
.9
3.7
6.5
14.8
3.1
1.3
3.6
6.8
14.3
3.0
1.0
3.7
6.6
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
33.9
30.8
3.1
34.0
30.8
3.2
34.5
31.3
35.0
31.7
3.3
34.4
31.2
3.2
35.5
32.1
3.3
35.9
32.5
3.4
36.0
32.5
3.5
35.8
32.3
3.5
35.8
32.4
3.4
Equals: Disposable personal income
232.1
235.6
241.1
245.6
238.7
250.0
252.8
253.8
253.8
252.5
Less: Personal consumption expenditures _
214.6
217.7
219.6
227.2
219.8
230.9
233.3
234.1
232.3
232.6
17.5
17.9
21.5
18.4
18.9
19.0
19.4
19,7
21.6
19.8
238-. 1
240.9
245.8
248.8
243.6
253.3
256.1
255.9
255.9
255.0
Less: Personal contributions for social insurance_
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments_
Federal.
State and local
_.
Equals: Personal s a v i n g . . .
Addendum: Disposable personal income in constant (1954) dollars.
1. Footnotes to table II-l are relevant to this table also.
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PERSONAL
Table II-3.—Personal Income, Seasonally Adjusted
INCOME
AND
OUTLAY
149
Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57 1—Continued
Monthly
[Billions of dollars]
Proprietors'
income
Wage and salary disbursements
Year and month
1952
Personal
income
All industries
Commodityproducing
Distrib-
Service
Government
utive
Other
labor
income
Manu-
Total
facturing only
Rental
income
Business
and professional
Farm
persons
9.8
9.9
9.9
of
263.7
267.2
267.3
267.7
269.8
271.5
178.8
180.6
181.3
180.8
181.8
182.8
77.8
78.9
79.0
78.6
78.7
78.2
60.5
61.2
61.6
61.4
61.4
61.2
47.4
47.5
47.9
47.6
48.0
48.5
21.9
22.1
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.6
31.7
32.1
32.2
32.3
32.7
33.5
5.1
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.3
26.3
26.7
26.3
26.6
26.9
27.0
14.0
15.3
14.9
15.2
15.3
16.3
July
August
September
October
_
November . . .
December.., ..
270.5
276.9
279.4
280.5
279.6
281.6
180.5
186.1
188.7
190.2
192.1
193.4
75.6
80.4
83.1
83.9
85.1
86.5
58.6
62.7
65.0
66.1
67.1
68.3
48.9
49.4
49.3
49.8
50.2
50.2
22.7
22.8
23.0
23.1
23.1
23.3
33.2
33.5
33.3
33.5
33.6
33.4
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
26.8
26.6
27.0
27.5
27.2
27.8
Total
273.1
184.9
80.5
63.0
48.7
22.6
32.9
5.3
283.7
285.0
287.6
287.5
288.4
290.2
193.9
195.8
197.5
198. 1
199.0
199.5
86.7
87.6
88.6
88.8
88.8
89.2
68.7
69.5
70.5
70.9
70.9
71.0
50.2
50.8
51.2
51.3
51.9
52.0
23.4
23.6
23.8
24.1
24.1
24.3
33.6
33.8
33.9
33.9
34.1
34.1
July
August
September.
October... . . _.
November
December
290.1
289.5
289.9
290.5
289.2
289.2
200.0
200.0
199.2
199.1
198.0
197.0
89.3
89.0
88.1
87.9
86.8
86.3
71.1
70.7
69.8
69.4
68.5
68.0
52.3
52.3
52.5
52.5
52.5
52.1
24.5
24.5
24.6
24.7
24.8
24.8
Total
288.3
198.1
88.1
69.9
51.8
January..
February.
March. . .__ _
April... .... .
May__ .
. _
June...
287.3
287.9
286.9
287.0
287.4
288.3
195.6
195.7
194.9
195.1
195.4
195.6
84.9
85.0
84.3
83.8
83.9
83.9
67.1
66.8
66.3
65.9
65.9
65.8
July
August... .
September.
October... ._
November
December. _
288.3
289.4
291.4
291.5
294.5
296. 7
195.0
195.3
196.0
197.0
199.0
200.2
82.8
82.6
82.9
83.6
85.2
85.8
289.8
196.3
296.6
298.1
300.8
305.1
308.1
309.4
July
August
September..
October
November.
December..
Total.
January
February
March
April
M a y . . __
June
_
1953
January
February
March
April
May
June.
1954
Total.
January. _
FebruaryMarch.^
April
May
June
.
January..
February.
March
April
May
June.. ___
1955
1956
July
August
September..
October
November..
December..
Total .
January...
February.
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total
Less:
Personal
Personal Trans- contri- NonagriDivi- interest fer pay- butions
cultural
ments for social income
dends income
insurance
10.0
10.1
10.1
9.0
9.0
9.0
8.9
8.9
9.0
11.7
11.8
11.8
11.9
11.9
12.0
12.8
12.5
12.7
12.8
13.2
12.8
3.9
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.7
246.2
248.4
249.1
249.1
251. 1
251.8
17.3
17.2
16.9
15.7
13.0
13.0
10.2
10.3
10.3
10.4
10.4
10.4
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.1
8.8
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.6
13.0
13.9
13.7
13.5
13.5
13.9
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
249.7
256.3
259.0
261.4
263.4
265.2
26.9
15.3
10.2
9.0
12.1
13.2
3.8
254.3
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
5.9
6.0
27.4
27.7
27.6
27.5
27.4
27.5
14.2
13.2
13.6
13.0
13.0
13.7
10.4
10.4
10.4
10.5
10.5
10.5
9.2
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.4
12.7
12.9
13.0
13.1
13.2
13.3
14.0
13.9
14.2
14.1
13.9
14.3
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
266.1
268. 5
270.5
271.1
271.9
273.0
34.0
34.1
34.1
34.0
34.0
33.9
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.2
6.2
27.6
27.3
27.3
27.4
27.3
27.3
13.0
12.3
13.4
13.2
13.2
13.6
10.5
10.5
10.6
10.6
10.7
10.7
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
13.4
13.5
13.7
13.8
13.8
13.9
14.1
14.3
14.2
14.9
14.5
15.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
4.0
3.9
3.9
273.7
273.7
273.0
273.9
272.6
272.3
24.3
33.9
6.0
27.4
13.3
10.5
9.2
13.4
14.3
3.9
271.5
52.1
51.9
51:8
52.1
52.2
52.0
24.7
24.8
24.9
25.2
25.1
25.3
33.9
33.9
33.9
34.0
34.2
34.4
6.
6.
6.
26.9
27.2
27.2
27.6
27.4
27.8
14.0
13.7
13.0
12.0
11.9
12.2
10.7
10.8
10.8
10.9
10.9
10.9
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.5
9.6
14.0
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
14.5
15.0
15.3
15.8
16.1
16.2
16.2
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
270.0
270.7
270.5
271.5
272.0
272.7
64.9
64.7
65.0
65.6
67.1
67.5
52.4
52.4
52.5
52.6
52.7
53.1
25.4
25.6
25.8
26.0
26.3
26.4
34.4
34.7
34.8
34.8
34.8
34.9
6.2
6.2
6. 3
6.3
6.4
6.5
27.8
27.8
27.9
28.0
28.4
29.1
12.2
13.1
13.9
12.0
12.3
11.9
10.9
10.9
10.9
10.9
10.9
10.9
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.9
10.7
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.9
15.0
15.1
16.5
16.3
16.6
17.3
17.2
17.0
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
272.8
273.0
274.1
276.2
278.9
281.4
84.1
66.1
52.3
25.5
34.4
6.2
27.8
12.7
10.9
9.8
14.6
16.2
4.6
273.8
201.0
202.2
203.9
206.8
209.3
210.5
86.2
87.1
88.4
89.7
91.3
91.5
67.9
68.8
69.7
70.8
72.1
72.3
53.3
53.5
53.8
54.3
55.1
55.6
26.6
26.6
26.9
27.2
27.4
27.6
34.9
35.0
34.8
35.6
35.5
35.8
6.6
6.7
6.9
7.0
7.0
7.1
29.0
29.1
29.8
30.1
30.4
30.6
12.0
11.9
11.4
12.2
12.1
11.9
10.8
10.8
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
15.2
15.3
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.7
16.8
16.9
17.4
17.5
17.5
17.6
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.2
281.3
282.9
285.9
289.5
292.5
294.1
312.8
313.1
315.6
316.7
319.6
322.7
214.2
213.3
214.8
216.2
218.4
219.8
92.2
92.2
93.0
94.0
95.4
95.7
72.7
72.9
73.6
74.6
76.0
76.0
56.3
56.7
57.1
57.2
57.7
58.4
27.9
28.2
28.4
28.5
28.7
29.0
37.8
36.2
36.3
36.5
36.6
36.7
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.5
7.5
30.7
30.9
31.1
31.0
31.0
30.9
11.2
11.9
12.0
11.4
11.9
11.2
10.6
10.6
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.9
11.2
11.4
11.5
13.7
15.8
15.9
16.1
16.2
16.3
16.4
17.6
17.6
17.6
17.6
17.8
17.8
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.3
298.2
297.8
300.1
301.9
304.2
308.0
310.2
210.9
91.4
72.3
55.8
27.8
36.0
7.1
30.4
11.8
10.7
11.2
15.8
17.5
5.2
295.0
321.0
322.2
323.8
327.4
328.6
330.2
220.3
221.0
222.8
225.7
225.8
227.5
95.6
95.6
96.2
98.2
98.1
98.6
75.7
75.3
75.8
77.2
76.9
77.2
58.7
58.8
59.4
59.9
59.9
60.5
29.3
29.5
29.8
30.0
30.1
30.4
36.8
37.1
37.4
37.6
37.7
38.0
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.8
30.8
30.6
30.8
30.7
31.0
30.9
11.3
11.7
10.9
11.1
11.5
11.1
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.8
11.6
11.7
]1.8
]1.9
12.0
12.1
16.4
16.5
16.5
16.8
16.9
17.0
18.0
18.0
18.3
18.4
18.6
18.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.7
306.3
307.1
309.4
312.7
313.5
315.5
329.3
333.2
334.5
337.4
337.9
338.9
225.9
228.6
230.2
231.3
232.5
235.0
96.8
98.9
99.9
101.1
101.4
102.9
75.9
77.7
78.6
79.9
80.3
81.4
60.3
60.5
60.8
60.4
61.0
61.5
30.6
30.8
30.8
31.1
31.3
31.6
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.7
38.9
39.0
7.9
8.0
8.1
8..1
8.3
8.4
30.7
31.0
30.6
30.8
30.9
31.0
11.7
12.2
12.0
13.1
11.9
11.2
10.8
10.9
11.0
11.1
11.2
11.3
]2. 2
12.3
12.2
12.3
J2.3
10.9
17.1
17.2
17.3
17.5
17.6
17.8
18.6
18.9
18.9
19.1
19.1
19.2
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.9
314.1
317.5
319.0
320.8
322.5
324.1
330.5
227.3
98.7
77.7
60.1
30.5
38.0
7.9
30.8
11.6
10.9
12.0
17.0
18.6
5.7
315.4
340.1
342.8
344.1
345.9
348.6
350.7
234.3
235.8
236.6
236.9
238.4
240.0
101.8
102.4
102.5
102.7
102.6
103.4
80.7
80.9
80.9
81.1
81.0
81.5
61.7
62.1
62.4
62.4
63.3
63.9
31.7
31.9
32.1
32.3
32.5
32.6
39.2
39.4
39.6
39.5
40.0
40.2
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
9.0
31.0
31.2
31.1
31.3
31.4
31.6
11.4
11.6
11.5
11.6
11.6
11.5
11.4
11.4
11.5
11.6
11.7
11.8
12.4
12.5
12.5
12.6
12.6
•2.7
18.0
18.2
18.4
18.6
18.7
18.9
19.7
19.9
20.3
21.0
21.8
21.8
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.6
325.1
327.6
329.0
330.6
333.3
335.6
351.8
352.1
351.4
350.6
350. 2
348.4
240.5
240.8
240.2
238. 6
238.0
237.3
103.3
103.1
102.4
101.5
101.0
99.8
81.4
81.3
80.7
80.0
79.8
78.6
64. 0
64.2
64.2
63.5
63. 6
63.7
32.8
32.9
32.9
32. 9
32.9
33.2
40.4
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.5
40.6
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.2
9.2
9.2
31.8
31.8
31.6
31.6
31.2
31.2
11.9
11.8
11.7
11.4
11.4
11.8
11.9
12.0
12.1
12.1
12.2
12.2
12. 8
12.8
12.7
12.6
12. 6
10.8
18.9
19.0
19.1
19.1
19.1
19.2
21.7
21.5
21.5
22.6
23.0
23.3
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
336.2
336.6
336.1
335.7
335.2
333. 0
347.9
238.1
102.2
80.6
63.3
32.6
40.1
8.9
31.4
11.6
11.8
12.4 1
18.8
21.5
6.6
332.7
1957
„._.
.
150
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table II-4.—Personal Consumption
Expenditures,
by Type of Product, 1946-57*
[Millions of dollars]
1946
Line
I. Food i and tobacco _
1. Food purchased for off-premise consumption (n. d. c.)
2. Purchased meals and beverages 2 (n. d. c.)
3. Food furnished government (including military)
and commercial employees (n. d. c.)
4. Food produced and consumed on farms (n. d. c.)
5. Tobacco products (n. d. c.)
II. Clothing, accessories, and jewelry.
1. Shoes and other footwear (n. d. c.)
2. Shoe cleaning and repair (s.)
3. Clothing and accessories except footwear 3
a. Women's and children's (n. d. c.)
b. Men's and boys' (n. d. c.)
4. Standard clothing issued to military personnel
(n. d. c ) .
5. Cleaning, dyeing, pressing, alteration, storage, and
repair of garments including furs (in shops) not
elsewhere classified (s.).
6. Laundering in establishments (s.)
7. Jewelry and watches (d. c.)
8. Other* (s.)
III. Personal care_
1. Toilet articles and preparations (n. d. c.)
2. Barbershops, beauty parlors, and baths (s.)IV. Housing.
1. Owner-occupied
nonfarm dwellings—space-rental
value 5 (s.).
2. Tenant-occupied nonfarm 5dwellings (including lodging houses)—space rent (s.).
3. Rental value of farmhouses (s.)
4. Other« (s.)
V. Household operation
1. Furniture, including mattresses and bedsprings
(d. a ) .
2. Kitchen and other household appliances 7 (d. c.)
3. China, glassware, tableware, and8 utensils (d. c.)
4. Other durable house furnishings9 (d. c.)
5. Semidurable house furnishings (n. d. c.)
1948
1949
1952
1953
1955
1956
1957
52,496
58,274
60,216
59,670
66,250
69,522
70,606
71,431
73,292
76,875
81,641
33,332
11, 709
1,349
38, 677
11,939
1,023
40,312
11,996
1,021
39,198
11,686
1,000
40,351
11, 749
1,076
44,610
12,936
1,632
46,935
13,419
1,769
47, 834
13,722
1,650
49,145
13,766
1,478
50,591
14,371
1,292
53,308
15,062
1,198
57,092
15,589
1,227
2,628
3,478
2,766
3,869
2,732
2,228
4,272
2,062
4,432
2,329
4,743
2,246
5,153
2,035
5,365
1,824
5,218
1,688
5,350
1,669
5,638
1,659
6,074
23,451
23,795
25,539
26,449
26,668
26,749
28,430
29,719
29,985
3,109
199
15,995
10,205
5,790
212
3,323
194
16,017
10,014
6,003
272
3,315
204
17, 420
10,857
6,563
414
3,2.50
202
18,345
11,622
6,723
256
3,260
202
18, 528
11,925
6,603
161
3,270
203
18,599
11,977
6,622
79
3,611
210
19,695
12,477
7,218
52
3,746
218
20,648
12,892
7,756
61
3,749
228
20, 834
13,173
7,661
59
1,439
1,462
1,543
1,608
1,671
1,677
1,754
1,816
1,867
4,155
22,215
22,952
2,781
241
15,097
9,728
5,369
364
2,955
227
15,610
9,963
5,647
229
1,198
1,349
3,090
216
16.831
10, 916
5,915
191
1,431
715
1,506
313
796
1,463
323
835
1,436
326
835
1,353
309
838
1,370
319
841
1,465
337
848
1,577
363
859
1,611
376
858
1,682
381
865
1,835
408
876
1,920
434
1,894
469
2,086
2,253
2,311
2,324
2,452
2,626
2,786
2,973
3,151
3,399
3,726
3,963
1,109
977
1,245
1,008
1,283
1,028
1.2H0
1,014
1,375
1,501
1,125
1,593
1,193
1,697
1,276
1,739
1,412
1,881
1,518
2,040
1,686
2,123
23,247
25,382
27,485
29,108
30,738
32,767
24,356
1,840
1,077
13,800
15,567
17,588
19,295
35,367
21,198
7,343
8,471
9,755
10,915
4,750
5,113
5,723
6,370
13,134
14,266
15, 520
16,720
18,033
19,854
7,800
8,611
9,373
9,803
10,018
10,146
1,736
769
30,947
3,393
1,765
827
32,275
3,576
1,711
874
32,738
3, 637
1,741
946
36,522
4,180
1,744
1,023
38,875
4,432
10,395
1,794
1,114
39,984
4,343
22,064
12,117
1,408
602
25,651
2, 689
6,978
1,464
639
29,003
2,248
1,447
536
23,949
2, 552
3,070
1,608
705
30,785
3,184
1,811
1,263
2,194
2,039
3, 179
1.348
2, 453
2, 135
3, 468
1,457
2,712
2,354
3,127
1,414
2,605
2,332
3,940
1,531
2,990
2,647
3,873
1,637
3,270
2,824
3,815
1, 610
2, 934
2,615
3, 985
1,678
2,862
2,550
4,033
1,703
2,653
2,390
4,694
1,862
3,045
2,573
4, 885
1,905
3, 332
2, 655
4,762
1,899
3,340
2,650
924
1,523
1,628
1.599
1,728
1,909
1,832
2,015
2,152
2.374
2, 543
2,770
426
4,941
1,270
754
433
2,484
440
5,682
1,406
862
464
2,950
469
6,428
1,561
956
490
3. 421
496
6, 299
1, 748
1,028
512
3,011
515
6,990
1,964
1,171
554
564
7,524
2,210
1,324
594
3, 396
616
7,874
2,453
1, 445
660
3,316
674
8,285
2, 730
1, 560
724
3,271
698
8,870
3,017
1, 762
764
3,327
764
9,624
3, 300
1,984
857
3,483
819
10, 263
3, 606
2,210
912
3,535
862
10,819
3,899
2,343
970
3,607
9. Telephone, telegraph, cable, and wireless (s.)
10. Domestic
service (s.)
11. Other 10 (s.)
VI. Medical care and death expenses
1. Drug preparations and sundries (n. d. c.)
2. Ophthalmic products and orthopedic appliances
(d. c ) .
3. Physicians (s.)
4. Dentists (s.)
5. Other professional services n (s.)
1,312
2,120
814
6,893
1,271
396
1,383
2,348
906
7,685
1,313
400
1,579
2, 363
995
8,674
1. 466
431
1,737
2,356
997
9,003
1,555
454
1,942
2,572
1,078
9,711
1,719
2, 616
2, 690
1,344
12,200
2,137
604
2, 693
2,520
1,389
13,049
2,163
595
2,966
2,942
1,498
3,239
3,187
1,615
15,293
2,869
814
3,539
3,283
1,717
10,485
1,979
546
2,386
2,614
1,258
11,252
2,058
580
16,399
3,098
873
1,720
772
338
2,327
900
445
2,338
920
455
2,427
961
482
2,519
997
510
2,657
1,098
544
2, 840
1,234
586
3,109
1,406
634
3, 470
1,625
697
3, 693
1,705
734
12
6. Privately controlled hospitals and sanitariums
(s.)
7. Medical care and hospitalization insurance 13 (s.)
8. Funeral and burial expenses (s.)
VII. Personal business
1. Brokerage charges and interest, and investment
counseling (s.).
2. Bank service charges, trust services, and safe-deposit
box rental (s.).
1,163
444
789
4,993
1,621
559
925
6,560
290
1,772
557
952
7,015
247
2,037
629
970
8,005
446
2,729
942
1,128
10,783
342
2,962
1,056
1,124
3,229
1,090
1,187
12,993
676
3, 518
1,055
1,245
14,520
625
3,884
1,064
1,348
15,736
292
313
339
2,248
641
1,045
8,927
408
364
2,486
749
1,080
9,586
343
234
2,020
784
390
1,397
513
868
5,707
244
260
383
414
510
578
644
1,499
1, 532
1,768
1,877
2,008
2,184
2,472
2,794
2,947
3,240
3, 666
3,863
1,292
609
618
421
12,066
9,004
2,436
1,492
1,717
1, 549
668
904
550
15,390
12,316
4,587
1,674
1,975
1,623
763
1,232
592
17,794
14, 601
5,724
1,669
2,205
1,668
832
1,498
580
20,864
17, 777
8,077
1,684
2,364
1,816
868
1, 923
605
24,654
21, 651
10, 729
2,223
2,497
2,197
934
2,154
686
24,526
21, 353
9,444
2,106
2,833
2,271
964
2.488
665
25,165
21,906
8,872
2,161
2,991
2, 379
1,007
3,144
703
29,619
26, 331
11,822
2,205
3,339
2,515
1,088
3,346
726
29,328
26,177
11,347
2,027
3,418
2,775
1,174
3,867
751
35,341
32,179
15,800
2,454
3,651
3,145
1,201
4,497
808
33,776
30, 559
13, 260
2,368
3,861
3,565
1,278
4,901
883
36,345
33,054
14, 575
2,528
4,108
3,034
65
260
3,630
69
381
4, 435
76
492
5,003
85
564
5,375
94
733
6,040
107
6,705
132
1,045
7,547
144
1,274
8,007
153
1,225
8,770
162
1, 342
9,558
186
1,326
10, 220
214
1,409
1,951
1,334
554
63
1,111
627
2,007
1,326
614
67
1,067
589
2,098
1,402
620
76
1,095
602
2,063
1,401
583
79
1,024
515
2,041
1,359
604
78
962
443
2,068
1,359
627
82
1,105
496
2,089
1,367
634
88
1,170
511
2.106
1,367
647
92
1,182
484
2,031
1,313
623
95
1,120
427
2,008
1,273
636
99
1,154
407
1,987
1,261
621
105
1,230
416
1,990
1,240
638
112
1,301
404
341
106
37
321
120
37
323
134
36
324
151
34
313
176
30
340
241
28
338
295
26
318
352
28
26
256
465
26
264
525
25
279
593
25
6. Cleaning and polishing preparations, and miscellaneous household supplies and paper products
(n. d. c ) .
7. Stationery and writing supplies (n. d. c.)
8. Household utilities
a. Electricity (s.)
b. Gas (s.)
c. Water (s.)
d. Other fuel and ice (n. d. c.)
54
1947
3. Services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries except insurance companies (s.).
4. Expense of handling life insurance 14 (s.)
5. Legal services (s.)
6. Interest on personal debt (s.)
_
7. Other « (s.)
VIII. Transportation
1. User-operated transportation
a. New cars and net purchases of used cars (d. c.).
b. Tires, tubes, accessories, and parts (d. c.)
c. Automobile repair, greasing, washing, parking, storage, and rental (s.).
d. Gasoline and oil (n. d. c.)
e. Bridge, tunnel, ferry, and road tolls (s.)
f. Automobile insurance premiums less claims
paid (s.).
2. Purchased local transportation
a. Street and electric railway and local bus (s.).
b. Taxicab (s.)
:
c. Railway (commutation) (s.)
3. Purchased intercity transportation
a. Railway (excluding commutation) and sleeping and parlor car (s.).
b. Intercity bus (s.)
c. Airline (s.)
d. Other » (s.)
Footnotes for this table follow table II-6 on pages 152 and 153.
1,303
404
20,092
320
1,505
605
26,232
2,779
3, 301
2,160
2,661
1,179
11,663
574
14,014
2,473
685
3,189
1,508
653
602
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAY
Table II-4.—Personal Consumption
151
Expenditures, by Type of Product, 1946-57*—Continued
[Millions of dollars]
Line
IX. Recreation.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Books and maps (d. c.)
Magazines, newspapers, and sheet music (n. d. c.)__
Nondurable toys and sport supplies 17 (n. d. c.)
Wheel goods, durable toys,
sport equipment, boats,
and pleasure aircraft 17 (d. a ) .
5. Radio and television receivers, records, and musical
instruments (d. c ) .
6. Radio and television repair (s.)
7. Flowers, seeds, and potted plants (n. d. c.)
8. Admissions to specified spectator amusements
a. Motion picture theaters (s.)
b. Legitimate theaters and opera, and entertainments of nonprofit institutions (except
athletics) (s.).
c. Spectator sports I8 (s.)
9. Clubs 19and fraternal organizations except insurance (_s.).
10. Commercial participant amusements 20 (s.)
11. Pari-mutuel net receipts (s.)
.
12. Other 2> (s.)
X. Private education and research.
1. Higher education 22 ( s .)
2. Elementary and secondary schools 22 (s.).
3. Other 23 (s.)
XI. Religious and welfare activities 24 ( s .)_
97
98
99
100
101
102
XII. Foreign travel and remittances—net_1. Foreign travel by United States residents (s.)
2. Expenditures abroad by United States Government
personnel (military and civilian) (n. d. c ) .
3. Personal cash remittances to foreign countries less
personal cash remittances to the United States by
foreigners (s.).
4. Less: expenditures in the United States by foreigners
(s.).
Total personal consumption expenditures
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
11,704
12,257
12,892
13,256
14,220
15,161
15,908
778
1,573
1,663
904
790
1,689
1,709
994
831
1, 776
1, 694
1,093
806
1,825
1,624
1,174
888
1,917
1,842
1,397
1,006
1,954
2,008
1,575
1,026
2,170
2,048
1,698
2,457
2,264
2,373
2, 608
2,741
2,792
2,872
2,988
201
504
1,868
1,445
281
524
1,775
1,367
185
350
582
1, 708
1,299
188
389
634
1,646
1,233
192
428
675
1, 594
1,172
200
475
687
1,660
1,210
225
522
721
1, 700
1,217
251
585
770
1,741
1,225
276
652
824
1,658
1,116
296
82
83
84
85
86
233
438
240
458
223
467
221
483
221
506
222
525
246
671
87
88
436
256
603
440
246
598
463
237
628
490
253
656
510
323
694
545
367
7.56
232
582
615
375
869
240
627
415
255
574
225
549
565
362
788
668
408
947
725
431
1,017
89
90
91
1,162
1,411
1,553
1,683
1,801
1,951
2,109
2,244
2,389
2,597
2,848
3,047
92
501
350
311
649
420
342
713
458
382
784
483
416
817
531
453
868
585
498
925
650
534
967
710
567
1,022
774
593
1, 077
863
657
1,170
951
727
1,232
1,026
789
93
94
95
1,915
2,032
2,227
2,235
2,364
2,483
2,696
2,778
2,988
3,106
3,441
3,607
96
770
837
994
1,131
1,082
1,282
1,623
2,126
2,175
2,288
2,399
2,460
97
450
388
597
450
727
417
850
501
920
444
924
705
1, 044
960
1,174
1, 370
1,263
1,337
1,456
1,314
1,625
1,301
1,734
1,316
98
99
179
200
205
219
225
243
100
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
8,621
9,352
9,808
10,122
11,278
594
1,099
843
809
536
1, 243
910
972
588
1,374
1,079
630
1,454
1,172
847
677
1,495
1,396
878
1,143
1,429
1,479
1,704
115
447
2,066
1,692
174
140
475
2,004
1,594
188
174
483
1,918
1,503
182
200
359
222
399
379
241
526
220
Line
77
78
79
80
302
379
370
413
458
519
560
618
630
701
752
833
101
147,109
165,409
178,313
181,158
195,013
209,805
219,774
232,649
238,025
256,940
269,400
284,442
102
103
Durable commodities (d. c.)
15,892
20,593
22,723
24,584
30,351
29,471
29,099
32,875
32,398
39,632
38,369
39,926
103
104
Nondurable commodities (n. d. c.)
84,802
93,382
98,737
96,607
99,801
110,135
115,100
117,961
119,328
124,762
131,382
137,971
104
105
Services (s.)
46,415
51,434
56,853
59,967
64,861
70,199
75,575
81,8)13
86,299
92,546
99,649
106,545
105
Footnotes for this table follow table II-6 on pages 152 and 153.
Table II-5.—Personal Consumption
Expenditures by Major Type, in Constant Dollars, 1946-57 l
[Billions of 1954 dollars]
Line
1946
Total personal consumption expenditure
Durable goods, total
Automobiles and parts 2
Other
Nondurable goods, total
1947
1949
1948
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
192.3
195.6
199.3
204.3
216.8
218.5
224.2
235.1
238.0
256.0
263.7
270.3
19.4
23.3
24.6
26.3
32.1
29.2
28.5
33.1
32.4
39.6
37.9
38.1
5.0
7.4
8.2
10.4
13.8
11.6
10.6
13.8
13.4
17.9
14.9
15.5
14.3
15.9
16.4
15.9
18.3
17.5
17.9
19.3
19.0
21.7
23.0
22.6
132.7
107.6
105.3
105.1
106.3
109.2
111.2
115.0
118.3
119.3
125.4
130.2
Food and beverages 3
63.0
61.1
60.0
60.3
61.1
61.9
63.4
65.3
66.2
69.0
71.7
73.7
Clothing and shoes 4
21.2
20.2
20.4
20.4
20.9
20.8
21.8
22.0
21.9
23.3
23.9
23.7
Gasoline and oil
Line
4.3
4.6
5.0
5.6
6.0
6.6
7.1
7.7
8.0
8.7
9.2
9.4
Other
19.1
19.3
19.7
20.0
21.2
22.0
22.6
23.2
23.2
24.4
25.4
25.8
9
Services, total
65.3
67.0
69.6
71.7
75.5
78.2
80.8
83.7
86.3
91.0
95.6
99.4
10
19.0
20.6
21.9
23.3
24.8
26.1
27.3
28.3
29.1
30.3
31.8
33.7
11
8.1
8.7
9.1
9.4
10.2
10.9
11.2
11.7
12.1
13.5
14.6
15.3
12
Housing
Household operation «
Transportation
Other
,
5
,
7.8
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.5
7.9
8.1
8.2
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.4
13
30.4
,40.0
30.9
31.5
33.0
33.3
34.1
35.5
37.1
39.0
40.9
42.0
14
1
1. Implicit price deflators are shown in table VII-13.
2. Consists of items VIII-1-a and VIII-1-b in table II-4.
3. Consists of items 1-1,1-2,1-3, and 1-4 in table II-4.
4. Consists of items II-l, II-3, and II-4 in table II-4.
5. Consists of service items included in this category in table II-4.
152
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table II-6.—Personal Consumption
Expenditures by Major Type, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946~47l
[Billions of dollars]
1947
1946
Line
III
Year
IV
II
Year
IV
III
I
II
137.3
143.0
152.7
155.4
147.1
159.4
163.9
167.2
171.2
165.4
12.7
14.9
17.4
18.6
15.9
19.1
20.3
20.8
22.1
20.6
Automobiles and parts
2.3
3.3
4.6
5.6
3.9
5.6
6.4
6.2
6.8
6.3
Furniture and household equipment
7.3
8.3
9.4
9.7
8.7
10.1
10.6
11.2
11.9
11.0
Goods and services, total
Durable goods, total
.
I
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
Nondurable goods, total
80.8
82.6
87.7
88.1
84.8
90.7
93.0
94.2
95.7
93.4
Food and beverages
46.3
47.2
50.7
51.8
49.0
53.1
54.4
55.0
55.2
54.4
Clothing and shoes
18.0
18.0
19.0
18.0
18.2
18.4
18.5
18.9
19.4
18.8
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.0
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.9
3.6
Other
13.7
14.5
14.9
14.9
14.5
15.9
16.5
16.6
17.2
16.6
Services, total
43.9
45.5
47.5
48.7
46.4
49.6
50.6
52.2
53.4
51.4
13.2
13.6
14.0
14.4
13.8
14.7
15.1
15.8
16.6
15.6
6.6
6.5
6.7
6.9
6.7
7.1
7.3
7.5
7.6
7.4
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.4
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
19.3
20.4
23.3
23.7
23.0
Other
Gasoline and oil
Housing
Household operation
Transportation
Other
21.5
22.0
20.8
22.3
22.7
1. Footnotes to table II-5 are relevant to this table also.
2. Consists of items V-l, V-2, V-3, V-4, and IX-5 in table II-4.
Table II-6.—Personal Consumption
Expenditures by Major Type, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1952-531
[Billions of dollars]
1953
1952
Line
I
II
til
IV
219.8
230.9
233.3
234.1
232.3
232.6
29.1
33.2
33.4
33.6
31.2
32.9
11.0
14.4
14.5
14.6
12.6
14.0
14.6
14.1
14.6
14.8
14.8
14.6
14.7
4.2
3.9
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
118.0
Year
I
II
III
IV
214.6
217.7
219.6
227.2
27.7
29.1
27.5
32.1
Automobiles and parts
10.1
11.4
9.3
13.4
Furniture and household e q u i p m e n t 2 .
13.8
13.9
14.2
3.8
3.9
4.0
Goods and services, total
Durable goods, total
Other
Year
Nondurable goods, total
113.3
113.9
115.9
117.2
115.1
118.1
118.6
117.8
117.4
Food and beverages
63.4
64.2
64.7
65.1
64.4
65.3
65.4
65.1
65.2
65.2
Clothing and shoes
21.7
21.2
22.1
22.4
21.9
22.5
22.3
21.6
21.3
21.9
6.5
6.6
6.8
6.9
6.7
7.1
7.4
7.8
7.9
7.5
Other
21.8
21.9
22.3
22.8
22.2
23.2
23.5
23.3
23.0
23.2
Services, total
73.6
74.7
76.2
77.9
75.6
79.6
81.2
82.8
83.7
81.8
26.7
27.2
27.8
28.3
27.5
11.4
11.7
11.9
11.8
11.7
7.4
7.9
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.0
32.0
33.7
34.3
35.0
35.5
34.6
Gasoline and oil
Housing
Household operation
Transportation
Other
24.7
10.5
25.1
10.7
7.3
7.3
31.1
31.6
25.6
10.9
26.2
11.1
7.5
7.6
32.2
33.0
25.4
10.8
1. Footnotes to table II-5 are relevant to this table also.
2. Consists of items V-l, V-2, V-3 V-4, and IX-5 in table II-4.
Footnotes to table II-4.
•Consumer durable commodities are designated (d. c ) , nondurable commodities (n. d. c ) ,
and services (s.) following group titles.
1. Expenditures for food (items 1-4) include consumer expenditures for alcoholic beverages
of the following amounts in millions of dollars: 1946, $8,360; 1947, $8,620; 1948, $7,900; 1949,
$7,680; 1950, $7,790; 1951, $8,060; 1952, $8,530; 1953, $8,610; 1954, $8,500; 1955, $8,700; 1956, $8,990;
and 1957, $9,140. Expenditures for food (items 1-4) excluding alcoholic beverages are as follows in millions of dollars: 1946, $40,6,58; 1947, $45,785; 1948, $48461; 1949, $46, 432; 1950, $47,448;
1951, $53,447; 1952, $55,839; 1953, $56,631; 1954, $57,713; 1955, $59,242; 1956, $62,247; and 1957,
$66,427.
2. Comprises purchases of meals and beverages from retail, service, and amusement establishments, hotels, dining and buffet cars, schools, school fraternities, institutions, clubs, and
industrial lunchrooms, and also tips.
3. Includes luggage.
4. Comprises watch, clock, and jewelry repairs, dressmakers and seamstresses not in shops,
costume and dross suit rental, and miscellaneous personal services related to clothing.
5. Space rent covers heating and plumbing facilities, water heaters, lighting fixtures, kitchen
cabinets, linoleum, storm windows and doors, window screens, screen doors, and window
blinds or shades, but excludes other furnishings, equipment, and related services—furniture,
stoves and ranges, refrigerators, repairs of furniture and appliances, fuel, electricity, etc.
6. Comprises transient hotels, tourist cabins, clubs, schools, and institutions.
7. Includes refrigerators and freezers, cooking ranges, dish washers, laundry equipment,
heating stoves, air conditioners, sewing machines, vacuum cleaners, and other small electric
appliances.
8. The principal house furnishings included are floor coverings, comforters, quilts, blankets,
pillows, picture frames, mirrors, art products, portable lamps, and clocks. Also includes
writing equipment and hand, power, and garden tools.
9. Consists mainly of textile house furnishings (except those specified in group V-4) including piece goods allocated to house furnishings use. Among other products covered are
lamp shades, brooms, and brushes.
10. Comprises maintenance services for appliances and house furnishings, moving and warehouse expenses, postage and express charges, premiums for fire and theft insurance on personal
property less claims paid, and miscellaneous household operation services.
11. Comprises services of osteopathic physicians, chiropractors, chiropodists and podiatrists,
private duty trained nurses, and miscellaneous curative and healing professions.
12. Comprises current expenditures (including depreciation) of nonprofit hospitals and
sanitariums and payments by patients to proprietary hospitals, sanitariums, and nursing
homes.
13. Premiums less claims: accident and health insurance, mutual accident and sick benefit
associations, and group hospitalization associations. Also covers administrative and medical
expenses of group health associations and student fees for medical care.
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAY
153
!
Table II—6.—Personal Consumption
Expenditures by Major Type, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1948—51
[Billions of dollars]
1948
1949
Year
II
III
IV
174.7
177.5
180.2
180.8
178.3
21.6
22.6
23.6
23.1
22.7
I
I
1951
1950
II
III
IV
179.0
181.1
180.5
184.0
181.2
22.4
24.5
25.1
26.3
24.6
Year
Line
II
III
IV
Year
I
185.7
189.9
204.4
200.1
195.0
211.5
205.5
208.8
213.4
209.8
1
26.8
27.9
35.5
31.2
30.4
33.0
28.0
28.5
28.4
29.5
2
I
II
III
IV
Year
6.9
7.1
7.7
7.9
7.4
8.2
10.1
10.3
10.4
9.8
11.0
12.2
14.9
13.8
13.0
13.4
11.1
11.1
10.6
11.6
3
11.3
12.1
12.5
11.7
11.9
10.9
11.1
11.5
12.7
11.5
12.6
12 A
17.0
14.0
14.0
15.9
13.3
13.7
14.0
14.2
4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.7
5
98.1
98.7
99.0
99.2
98.7
97.8
97.1
95.3
96.3
96.6
96.2
97.7
103.3
102.0
99.8
110.2
108.1
109.5
112.7
110.1
6
56.5
56.4
55.7
55.6
56.1
54.8
54.4
53. 6
53.7
54.1
53. 6
54. 3
56.8
56.3
55. 2
61. 2
60.9
61. 5
62.3
61.5
7
19.5
20.0
20.3
20.7
20.1
20.2
19.6
18.5
19.0
19.3
18. 9
19.1
20.3
20.1
19.6
21.9
20.5
20.6
21.6
21.1
8
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.4
4.7
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.8
5.9
6.1
6.3
6.0
9
17.8
17.9
18.5
18.3
18.1
18.1
18.1
18.0
18.5
18.2
18.6
19.0
20.6
20.1
19.6
21.3
20.8
21.3
22.4
21.4
10
55.0
56.2
57.6
58.5
56.9
58.8
59.5
60.1
61.5
60.0
62.6
64.3
65.7
66.9
64.9
68.3
69.4
70.8
72.3
70.2
11
17.0
17.3
17.8
18.2
17.6
18.6
19.1
19.5
20.0
19.3
20.5
21.0
21.4
21.9
21.2
22.4
22 9
23.5
24.2
23.2
12
7.9
7.9
8.0
8.0
7.9
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.7
8.4
9.0
9.2
9.3
9.6
9.3
9.9
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.1
13
5.7
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.1
6. I
6.3
0.4
6.5
6.3
6.7
6.9
7.0
7.1
6.9
14
24.5
25.2
25.7
26.0
25.4
25.8
26.0
26.3
26. 6
26.2
27.0
27.9
28.5
28.8
28.1
29.2
29.6
30.1
30.6
29.9
15
Expenditures by Major Type, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1954-57 1
Table II-6.—Personal Consumption
[Billions of dollars]
1954
1956
1955
1957
lane
I
II
III
IV
233.7
236.5
238.7
243.2
238.0
249.4
31.2
32.2
32.3
33.9
32.4
38.2
Year
I
II
I
II
III
IV
254.3
260.9
263.3
256.9
265.2
267.2
39.1
41.4
39.8
39.6
38.7
37.8
Year
I
II
IV
Year
IV
Year
269.7
275.4
269.4
279.8
282.5
288.3
287.2
284.4
1
37.5
39.5
38.4
40.2
39.5
40.4
39.6
39.9
2
3
III
III
12.4
13.2
13.3
14.5
13.4
17.8
18.1
19.7
17.4
18.3
16.0
15.1
15.0
16.5
15.6
17.3
16.7
17.3
17.1
17.1
14.7
14.8
14.6
15.0
14.8
16.0
16.2
16.9
17.2
16.6
17.4
17.5
17.1
17.7
17.4
17.5
17.3
17.5
17.0
17.3
4
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.8
4.9
5.1
4.8
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.5
5.5
5
117.9
118.8
119.6
121.0
119.3
121.2
123.7
126.1
128.1
124.8
129.6
130.9
131.6
133.4
131.4
135.5
137.1
140.5
138.8
138.0
6
65.4
65.8
66.5
67.2
66.2
66.2
67.5
68.7
69.4
67.9
70.3
70.9
71.3
72.5
71.2
73.6
75.3
77.1
76.2
75.6
7
21.8
21.8
21.7
22.4
21.9
22.7
23.2
23.6
23.9
23.4
24.1
24.3
24.6
24.8
24.5
24.8
24.3
25.1
24.4
24.6
8
7.9
7.9
8.0
8.2
8.0
8.4
8.7
8.9
9. 1
8.8
9.2
9.5
9. 6
9.9
9.6
10.2
10.2
10.3
10.2
10.2
9
22.8
23.2
23.4
23.3
23.2
23.9
24.3
24.9
25.7
24.7
26.0
26.2
26.1
26.2
26.1
26.9
27.3
28.0
28.0
27.5
10
98.6
100.6
102.5
99.6
104.1
105.9
107.4
108.7
106.5
11
32.8
34.4
35.1
35.7
36.3
35.4
12
84.6
85.5
86.9
88.3
86.3
90.0
91.6
93.4
95.3
92.5
96.9
28.6
28.9
29.2
29.7
29.1
30.1
30.5
31.0
31.4
30.7
31.8
32.3
33.1
33.8
11.9
12.0
12.2
12.5
12.1
13.0
13.2
13.7
14.2
13.5
14.4
14.7
14.9
15.1
14.8
15.3
15.6
15.8
16.2
15.8
13
8.0
7.9
7.9
8.0
7.9
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.4
8.3
8.5
8.6
8.5
8.7
8.6
8.9
9.0
9.2
9.0
9.0
14
36.0
36.7
37.6
38.1
37.1
38.7
39.5
40.3
41.2
39.9
42.1
43.0
44.1
44.9
43.5
45.5
46.2
46.7
47.s2
46.4
15
Footnotes to table II-4—Continued.
14. Comprises total operating expenses of life insurance companies and fraternal and assessment associations, excluding payments to policy-holders and expenses allocated to accident
and health insurance.
15. Comprises total payments to labor unions minus cash benefits, employment agency
fees, employees' payments to professional associations, miners' expenditures (for explosives,
lamps, and smithing), money order fees, classified advertisements, net purchases from pawnbrokers and miscellaneous second-hand stores, and other personal business services.
16. Comprises baggage charges and coastal and inland waterway and ferry foot passenger
fares.
17. Groups IX-3 and IX-4 include games, toys, sporting, athletic, and photographic goods,
and related products. These commodities are divided roughly between the two groups on
the basis of durability.
18. Comprises professional baseball, football, and hockey, horse and dog race tracks, college
football, and other amateur spectator sports.
19. Comprises gross receipts less cash benefits of fraternal, patriotic, and women's organizations except insurance; and dues and fees of athletic, social, and luncheon clubs, and school
fraternities.
20. Comprises billiard parlors, bowling alleys, dancing, riding, shooting, skating, and
swimming places, amusement devices and parks, daily fee golf course greens fees, golf instruction, club rental, and caddy fees, sightseeing buses and guides, and private flying operations.
21. Comprises photo developing and printing, photographic studios, collectors' net acquisitions of stamps and coins, hunting dog purchase and training, sports guide service, veterinary
service, purchase of pets, camp fees, nonvending coin machine receipts minus payoff, and
other commercial amusements.
22. The estimates represent current expenditures (including depreciation) net of receipts
accounted for separately in consumer expenditures, such as receipts from meals, rooms, and
entertainments.
23. Comprises fees paid to commercial, business, trade, and correspondence schools; fees
for musical, dancing, and other instruction except athletics; and current expenditures (including depreciation) of foundations for education and research.
24. Comprises religious bodies, social welfare and foreign relief agencies, political organizations, museums and libraries, and foundations (except foundation expenditures for education
and research). The estimates represent current expenditures (including depreciation but
excluding relief payments within the United Stites), and are net of receipts accounted for
separately in consumer expenditures, such as receipts from meals, rooms, and entertainments.
154
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table II—7.—Personal Consumption
Expenditures
by Major Type, Quarterly,
1946—47 *
[Billions of dollars]
1946
Line
I
Goods and services, total
II
1947
Year
IV
III
I
II
Year
IV
III
32.3
35.5
37.1
42.3
147.1
37.6
40.6
40.7
46.6
165.4
2.7
3.7
4.1
5.4
15.9
4.2
5.1
4.9
6.4
20.6
.5
.8
1.2
1.4
3.9
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.7
6.3
1.6
2.1
2.2
2.8
8.7
2.2
2.7
2.7
3.4
11.0
Durable goods, total
Automobiles and parts
Furniture and household equipment.
Other
.6
.8
.7
1-2
3.3
.6
.8
.7
1.3
3.4
Nondurable goods, total
18.6
20.3
21.2
24.7
84.8
20.9
22.7
22.8
26.9
93.4
Food and beverages
10.9
11.6
12.9
13.5
49.0
12.5
13.4
14.0
14.5
54.4
Clothing and shoes
3.8
4.6
4.1
5.7
18.2
4.0
4.6
4.0
6.2
18.8
.6
.8
.8
.8
3.0
.7
.9
1.0
.9
3.6
Other
3.3
3.3
3.3
4.6
14.5
3.7
3.8
3.7
5.3
16.6
Services, total
Gasoline and oil
/
11.0
11.5
11.8
12.1
46.4
12.4
12.8
13.0
13.3
51.4
Housing
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
13.8
3.7
3.8
4.0
4.1
15.6
Household operation
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.7
6.7
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
7.4
Transportation
1.1
1.3
1.4
1.3
5.1
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.4
5.5
Other
4.9
5.2
5.3
5.5
20.8
5.6
5.8
5.7
5.9
23.0
1. Footnotes to tables II-5 and II-6 are relevant to this table also.
Table II-7.—Personal Consumption
Expenditures
1952-531
by Major Type, Quarterly,
[Billions of dollars]
1953
1952
Line
I
II
Year
IV
III
I
II
Year
IV
III
50.7
54.1
53.4
61.5
219.8
54.7
58.1
57.2
62.6
232.6
6.1
7.4
6.6
9.0
29.1
7.4
8.6
8.2
8.8
32.9
Automobiles and parts
2.4
3.2
2.4
3.1
11.0
3.4
4.0
3.7
2.9
14.0
Furniture and household equipment _
3.0
3.3
3.4
4.3
14.1
3.2
3.6
3.6
4.3
14.7
.7
.9
.8
1.6
3.9
.8
1.0
.9
1.5
4.1
Nondurable goods, total
26,1
27.9
27.9
33.1
115.1
27.3
29.0
28.5
33.1
118.0
Goods and services, total
Durable goods, total
Other
Food and beverages
15.0
16.0
16.5
16.9
64.4
15.5
16.2
16.6
16.9
65.2
Clothing and shoes
4.4
5.3
4.8
7.4
21.9
4.7
5.5
4.7
7.1
21.9
Gasoline and oil
1.4
1.8
1.8
1.7
6.7
1.6
2.0
2.1
1.9
7.5
Other
5.2
4.9
4.9
7.1
22.2
5.5
5.3
5.1
7.2
23.2
Services, total
18.6
18.8
18.8
19.4
75.6
20.0
20.5
20.5
20.8
81.8
Housing
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
25.4
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
27.5
Household operation
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.8
10.8
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.9
11.7
Transportation
1.7
1.9
2.0
1.9
7.4
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.0
8.0
Other
7.8
8.0
7.9
8.2
32.0
8.4
8.7
8.8
8.7
34.6
1. Footnotes to tables II-5 and II-6 are relevant to this table also.
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAY
155
Expenditures by Major Type, Quarterly, 1948—51 ]
Table W—l .—Personal Consumption
[Billions of dollars]
1951
Line
III
II
I
1950
1949
1948
Year
IV
I
II
Year
IV
III
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
41.4
43.9
44.0
49.1
178.3
42.0
45.2
44.2
49.8
181.2
43.8
47.2
50.0
54.0
195.0
50.1
51.0
50.9
57.7
209.8
1
4.8
5.7
5.7
6.6
22.7
4.9
6.2
6.2
7.4
24.6
5.9
7.1
8.8
8.6
30.4
7.3
7.2
6.9
8.0
29.5
2
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.0
7.4
1.9
2.6
2.8
2.5
9.8
2.6
3.1
4.0
3.3
13.0
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.5
11.6
3
2.5
3.1
3.0
3.4
11.9
2.4
2.8
2.7
3.6
11.5
2.7
3.2
4.1
4.0
14.0
3.5
3.3
3.3
4.1
14.2
4
.6
.8
.7
1.3
3.4
.6
.8
.7
1.2
3.3
.6
.8
.7
1.3
3.4
.7
.8
.8
1.4
3.7
5
22.8
24.0
24.0
27.9
98.7
22.4
24.0
23.1
27.1
96.6
22.1
24.0
25.0
28.7
99.8
25.5
26.4
26.5
31.7
110.1
6
13.3
14.0
14.2
14.6
56.1
12.9
13.5
13.6
14.1
54.1
12.6
13.4
14.4
14.8
55.2
14.4
15.1
15.6
16.3
61.5
7
5.0
4.0
6. 1
19.3
3.9
4.8
4.4
6.5
19.6
4.8
5.0
4.4
7.0
21.1
8
1.3
1.4
1.3
5.0
1. 1
1.4
1.5
1.3
5.4
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.5
6.0
9
4.3
4.8
4.4
6.6
20.1
4.1
.9
1.2
1.2
1.1
4.4
1.0
4.2
4. 1
4.2
5.6
18.1
4.3
4.1
4.1
5.6
18.2
4.4
4.3
4.7
6.2
19.6
5.0
4.7
4.8
6.8
21.4
10
13.8
14.2
14.3
14.6
56.9
14.8
15.0
14.9
15.3
60.0
15.7
16.2
16.3
16.7
64.9
17.2
17.5
17.5
18.0
70.2
11
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.6
17.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
19.3
5.1
5.2
5.4
5.5
21.2
5.6
5.7
5.9
6.0
23.2
12
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.0
7.9
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.2
8.4
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
9.3
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.6
10.1
13
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.5
6.0
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.5
6.1
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.6
6.3
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
6.9
14
6.2
6.4
6.4
6.5
25.4
6.5
6.6
6.5
6.6
26.2
6.8
7.1
7.0
7.2
28.1
7.3
7.5
7.4
7.6
29.9
15
Table II—7.—Personal Consumption
Expenditures by Major Type, Quarterly, 1954—57 1
[Billions of dollars]
1954
II
I
1955
IV
III
Year
I
II
III
1957
1956
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
Line
III
IV
Year
55.4
59.0
58.1
65.5
238.0
59.2
63.3
63.6
70.9
256.9
63.1
66.0
66.0
74.3
269.4
66.3
70.2
70.6
77.3
284.4
1
7.1
8.2
7.6
9.5
32.4
8.7
10.0
9.8
11.1
39.6
8.8
9.6
8.9
11.1
38.4
9.2
10.0
9.6
11.1
39.9
2
3.1
3.8
3.2
3.3
13.4
4.4
5.1
4.7
4.1
18.3
4.0
4.2
3.6
3.9
15.6
4.3
4.6
4.2
4.0
17.1
3
3.3
3.5
3.6
4.4
14.8
3.5
3.9
4. 1
5.0
16.6
3.8
4.2
4.2
5.2
17.4
3.9
4.2
4.3
5.0
17.3
4
.7
1.0
.9
1.7
4.3
.8
1.1
1.0
2.0
4.8
1.0
1.2
1.1
2.1
5.3
1.0
1.2
1.2
2.1
5.5
5
27.0
29.3
28.9
34.1
119.3
27.8
30.3
30.5
36.2
124.8
29.9
31.7
31.9
37.8
131.4
31.0
33.6
34.1
39.3
138.0
6
15.5
16.3
17.0
17.4
66.2
15.6
16.8
17.6
18.0
67.9
16.6
17.5
18.3
18.8
71.2
17.4
18.6
19.7
19.8
75.6
7
4.3
5.6
4.7
7.4
21.9
4.6
5.8
5.0
8.0
23.4
5.0
5.8
5.3
8.3
24.5
4.8
6.2
5.5
8.2
24.6
8
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.0
8.0
1.9
2.3
2.4
2.2
8.8
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.4
9.6
2.3
2.7
2.7
2.5
10.2
9
5.4
5.3
5.1
7.3
23.2
5.7
5.4
5.5
8.1
24.7
6.2
5.9
5.8
8.3
26.1
6.4
6.1
6.2
8.8
27.5
10
21.3
21.5
21.5
21.9
86.3
22.6
23.0
23.4
23.6
92.5
24.4
24.7
25.2
25.4
99.6
26.2
26.6
26.8
26.9
106.5
11
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.4
29.1
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.9
30.7
8.0
8.1
8.3
8.5
32.8
8.6
8.8
8.9
9.1
35.4
12
3.3
2.9
2.8
3.1
12.1
3.6
3.3
3.1
3.6
13.5
4.0
3.6
3.4
3.7
14.8
4.2
3.8
3. 6
4.0
15.8
13
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
7.9
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.1
8.3
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
8.6
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.2
9.0
14
9.0
9.3
9.4
9.4
37.1
9.6
10.0
10.3
10.1
39.9
10.4
10.8
11.3
11.0
43.5
11.3
11.6
11.9
11.6
46.4
15
466759 O—-59
11
156
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table II-8.—Personal Income, by States and Regions, 1929-40
[Millions of dollars]
State and region
Line
1
Continental United States.
New England
Maine
New Hampshire.
Vermont
Massachusetts...
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Mideast
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia.
Great Lakes
Michigan..
Ohio
Indiana. . .
Illinois
Wisconsin.
Plains
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
North Dakota.
South Dakota..
Nebraska
Kansas
Southeast.
Virginia
West Virginia...
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina..
South Carolina .
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Arkansas
Southwest.
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
85,661
76,780
65,597
50,022
47,122
53,482
60,104
68,363
73,803
68,433
72,753
78,522
7,125
6,588
5,881
4,699
4,413
4,836
5,152
5,799
6,015
5,530
5,940
6,398
479
322
225
3,862
596
1,641
460
302
205
3,588
540
1,493
396
263
168
3, 259
485
1,310
309
204
129
2,650
390
1,017
307
200
121
2,442
379
964
342
229
132
2,652
402
1,079
358
238
146
2,804
433
1,173
420
258
165
3,127
484
1,345
425
272
170
3,204
502
1,442
396
259
161
2,954
465
1,295
417
274
172
3,162
500
1,415
444
285
184
3,385
534
1,566
27,465
25,580
22,146
17,236
16,019
17,726
18,992
21,654
22,730
21,188
22,347
23,949
14,105
3,714
7,531
240
1,260
615
13,186
3,495
6,904
203
1,176
616
11, 379
3,071
5, 846
186
1, 060
604
2,440
4,406
144
858
539
8,322
2,172
4,122
140
787
476
9,070
2,364
4,721
157
891
523
9,669
2,565
5,049
174
943
592
10, 914
2,910
5,850
215
1,076
11, 339
3,068
6,207
236
1,164
716
10, 708
2,869
5,593
201
1, 118
11,152
3,100
5,933
241
1,186
735
11,713
3,433
6,417
270
1,3
807
20,235
17,328
14,431
10,501
9,737
11,544
13,378
15,394
17,109
15,060
16,428
17,818
3,803
5,178
1,973
7,280
2,001
3,186
4,472
1,681
6,235
1,754
2, 593
3,804
1,431
5,187
1,416
1,882
2,716
1,022
3,780
1,101
1,668
2,631
982
3,434
1,022
2,167
3,087
1,184
3,945
1,161
2,554
3, 523
1, 397
4,484
1,420
3,014
4,060
1,608
5,112
1,600
3,389
4,432
1,838
5,743
1,707
2,891
3,863
1,605
5,116
1,585
3,215
4,265
1,767
5,566
1,615
3,610
4,606
1,8""
5,964
1,740
7,584
6,802
5,633
4,252
3,781
4,156
5,468
5,588
6,415
5,926
6,165
6,515
1,539
1,419
2,275
253
288
811
999
1,423
1,255
2,073
208
248
713
882
1,198
988
1,838
124
166
568
751
961
735
1,379
119
130
424
504
832
633
1,276
98
89
382
471
964
673
1,394
119
122
352
532
1,214
1,052
1,602
178
202
552
1,285
971
1,778
152
160
529
713
1,469
1,270
1,928
209
209
548
782
1,359
1,136
1,809
180
205
533
704
1,432
1,183
1,914
202
219
521
694
1,467
1,272
1,982
224
230
578
762
9,990
8,558
7,503
5,655
5,777
6,835
7,559
8,708
9,450
8,861
9,525
10,387
1,054
794
1,020
982
1,046
470
1,015
753
856
570
866
564
933
712
853
850
929
421
897
683
705
407
753
415
623
766
732
789
358
750
589
589
346
676
386
691
450
563
534
603
275
584
478
427
252
514
284
696
456
554
560
678
305
602
440
440
266
493
287
780
551
624
667
809
360
712
537
550
339
573
333
870
604
720
728
894
399
789
592
584
361
638
380
985
703
803
836
986
451
895
726
679
461
731
452
1,081
754
930
918
1,088
482
946
813
723
459
786
470
1,022
678
819
841
1,018
456
897
801
677
426
790
436
1,127
723
855
886
1,111
511
967
892
704
444
834
471
1,267
111
914
995
1,171
584
1,060
982
801
474
861
501
4,254
3,648
3,069
2,303
2,276
2,573
2,961
3,360
3,810
3,684
3,820
4,090
516
1,561
92
134
805
2,600
184
231
867
2,776
199
248
Oklahoma
Texas
New Mexico.
Arizona
1,077
2,752
171
254
2,399
142
223
718
2,044
125
182
Rocky Mountain.
1,614
1,485
1,179
932
312
225
151
642
284
271
222
132
603
257
207
168
109
501
194
182
124
86
380
160
162
106
84
380
156
7,394
6,791
5,755
4,444
1,166
647
79
5,502
1,043
593
76
5,079
851
496
61
4,347
638
373
52
3,381
Montana..
Idaho
Wyoming..
Colorado. .Utah
Far West
Washington..
Oregon
Nevada
California. . . .
Territory of Hawaii..
590
1,720
112
151
1,950
136
176
749
2,247
163
201
2,548
178
223
797
2,498
171
218
1,031
1,248
1,453
1,466
1,441
1,494
1,598
197
179
94
397
164
260
189
116
477
206
264
228
130
586
245
284
212
146
586
238
284
216
136
564
241
294
226
145
578
251
318
242
152
617
4,231
4,781
5,346
6,407
6,808
6,743
7,034
7,767
601
355
48
3,227
707
432
52
3,590
797
464
65
4,020
568
83
4,817
1,008
591
77
5,132
995
580
80
5,088
1,058
629
90
5,257
1,152
677
99
5,839
218
246
530
1,524
94
128
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAY
157
Table II-8.—Personal Income, by States and Regions, 1941-57
[Millions of dollars]
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
19.50
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
148,409
160,118
164,549
175,701
189,077
207,414
205,452
225,473
252,960
269,050
283,140
285,339
306,598
327,947
345,272
1
10,892
11,274
11,372
12,286
13,026
13,949
13,829
15,180
16,809
17,725
18,697
18,857
20,200
21,581
22,687
2
712
409
261
4,711
882
2,547
876
446
293
5,392
1,028
2,857
878
482
293
5,671
1,067
2,883
856
513
319
5,823
1,067
2, 794
933
567
362
6,342
1,066
3,016
982
615
389
6,581
1,126
3,333
1,061
663
414
7,066
1,173
3,452
1,087
699
448
7,799
1,287
3,860
1,187
779
502
8,505
1,410
4,426
1,297
817
522
8,855
1,471
4,763
1,298
862
542
9,333
1,545
5,117
1,312
894
543
9,403
1,515
5,190
1,452
952
567
10,056
1,617
5,556
1,526
1,007
603
10, 764
1,692
5,989
1,568
1,065
626
11, 361
1,715
6,352
3
4
5
6
7
8
27,850
33,172
38,906
42,113
43,472
47,066
50,093
54,271
54,505
59,448
65,140
68,782
72,612
73,231
78,014
83,485
87,901
9
13,209
4,085
7,646
315
1,674
921
15, 206
5,048
9,154
356
2,254
1,154
17, 752
6,024
10, 678
404
2,709
1,339
19. 483
6,520
11,470
424
2,870
1,346
20, 599
6,558
11,641
431
2,829
1,414
22, 712
6,886
12, 576
460
2,924
1,508
23, 997
7,268
13, 756
500
3,046
1,526
26, 060
7,876
14, 876
550
3,309
1,600
26,144
7,930
14, 771
599
3,384
1,677
28, 054
8,699
16, 477
689
3, 755
1,774
30,163
9,968
18, 038
754
4,323
1,894
31,681
10, 708
18, 922
812
4,716
1,943
33, 265
11,411
20,145
876
5,028
1,887
34,189
11,622
19, 572
906
5,084
1,858
36,508
12, 351
20, 706
1,049
5,453
1,947
38,876
13,273
22,170
1,189
5,948
2,029
40,954
14,089
23, 327
1,200
6,242
2,089
10
11
12
13
14
15
22,084
27,227
32,748
34,901
35,511
38,332
42,488
47,505
45,924
50,744
57,557
60,768
65,761
64,894
70,208
74,646
77,559
16
4,522
5,765
2,526
7,153
2,118
5,812
7,166
3,209
8.367
2,673
7,269
8,641
3,899
9,772
3,167
7,570
9,160
4,116
10, 743
3,312
7,215
9,326
4,271
11,188
3,511
7,743
9,853
4,419
12, 487
3,830
8, 832
10, 880
4, 925
13, 647
4,204
9,579
12,227
5,581
15, 472
4,646
9,522
11, 736
5,398
14, 654
4,614
10, 803
12, 891
6, 006
15, 984
5,060
12,103
14,892
6,951
17, 777
5,834
12,902
15,908
7,285
18, 579
6,094
14, 516
17,316
8,012
19,669
6,248
14,127
17, 241
7.623
19, 751
6,152
15, 785
18,589
8,251
20,968
6,615
16,361
19,814
8,768
22,611
7,092
16, 706
20, 748
9,110
23, 579
7,416
17
18
19
20
21
7,934
10,566
12,352
13,014
13,780
15,341
16,726
19,239
17,896
19,854
21,733
22,859
23,168
24,084
24,683
25,983
27,913
22
1,678
1,511
2,463
321
288
697
976
2,119
2,014
3,097
381
443
1,010
1,502
2,404
2,321
3,553
506
479
1.226
1,863
2,519
2,258
3,814
535
534
1,302
2,052
2,788
2,460
3,984
549
600
1,407
1,992
3,213
2,978
4,459
596
637
1,446
2,012
3,511
2,986
4,695
836
739
1,574
2,385
4,028
3,934
5,321
802
888
1,851
2,415
3,810
3,403
5, 219
678
690
1,699
2,397
4,184
3,799
5,705
781
793
1,949
2,643
4,624
4,072
6,306
804
932
2,045
2,950
4,796
4,272
6,660
755
815
2,179
3,382
5,049
4,110
7,000
771
881
2,106
3,251
5,450
4,260
7,579
872
861
2,203
3,458
5,760
4,519
7,996
903
906
2,289
3,610
6,145
5,056
8,256
924
1,075
2,640
3,817
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
13,493
18,456
22,856
25,478
26,380
26,965
28,416
31,233
30,943
34,193
38,900
41,528
43,153
43,148
47,154
50,510
53,088
30
1,729
933
1,118
1,290
1,533
769
1,350
1,211
1,089
684
1,123
664
2,590
1,123
1,498
1,640
2,063
1,089
1,836
1,685
1,520
970
1,508
934
2,945
1.285
1,854
2.108
2,515
1,262
2,354
2, 459
1.880
1.191
2,008
995
3,269
1,404
1,986
2,464
2,779
1,412
2,638
2,770
2,058
1,329
2,179
1,190
3,375
1,519
2,067
2,592
2,892
1,428
2,724
2,895
2,161
1,304
2,153
1,270
3,336
1,683
2.235
2,634
3,198
1,484
2,744
2,813
2,162
1,254
2,106
1,316
3,278
1,936
2,383
2,776
3,372
1.554
2.890
2,903
2,337
1,395
2,272
1,320
3,565
2,176
2,719
3,006
3,620
1,755
3,088
3,053
2,542
1,564
2.601
1,544
3,626
2,050
2,624
2,992
3,596
1,700
3,098
3,210
2,429
1,391
2,789
1,438
4,024
2,203
2,834
3,288
4,108
1,869
3,510
3,632
2,659
1,590
2,937
1,539
4,737
2,439
3,318
3,633
4,613
2,284
4,046
4,077
3,030
1,740
3,248
1,735
5,130
2,540
3,524
3.796
4,768
2,468
4,337
4,543
3,223
1,862
3,540
1,797
5,220
2,547
3,644
4.050
4,885
2,543
4,460
5,041
3,344
1,889
3,721
1,809
5,256
2,414
3,627
4,056
5,023
2,414
4,414
5.312
3,258
1,836
3,756
1,782
5,603
2,586
3,782
4,347
5,535
2,604
4,918
6,088
3,708
2,065
3,985
1,933
6,061
2,860
4,014
4,607
5,872
2,694
5,237
6,820
3,914
2,076
4,377
1,978
6,302
3,071
4,172
4,791
5,924
2,796
5,407
7,522
4,171
2,093
4,804
2,035
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
4,988
7,007
9,226
10,160
10,272
10,578
11,822
12,919
13,816
14,666
16,794
18,172
18,670
19,136
20,513
21,932
23,438
43
982
3,459
238
309
1,390
4,822
319
476
1,706
6,464
404
652
1,940
7,123
457
640
1,958
7,169
491
654
2,000
7,400
509
669
2,166
8,332
575
749
2,359
9,054
649
857
2,432
9,778
717
889
2,514
10,375
798
979
2,806
11,826
935
1,227
3,060
12, 712
1,005
1,395
3,161
13, 013
1,055
1,441
3,162
13,391
1,088
1,495
3,341
14, 380
1,159
1,633
3,532
15,326
1,245
1,829
3,687
16,364
1.399
1,988
44
45
46
47
1,941
2,665
3,222
3,247
3,405
3,718
4,209
4,545
4,552
5,010
5,770
6,091
6,158
6,174
6,670
7,222
7,731
48
388
298
195
728
332
467
435
235
1,010
518
545
501
281
1,185
710
550
555
295
1,195
652
568
546
302
1,317
672
657
595
339
1,429
698
772
653
381
1,654
749
865
706
418
1,760
796
791
706
440
1,794
821
957
757
474
1,930
892
1,050
849
552
2,284
1,035
1,066
916
543
2,468
1,098
1,093
883
547
2,492
1,143
1,071
880
537
2,543
1,143
1,158
917
570
2,783
1,242
1,222
1,010
609
3,045
1,336
1,263
1,043
644
3,339
1,442
49
50
51
52
53
9,909
13,802
18,207
19,931
20,357
21,415
22,297
23,753
23,987
26,378
30,257
33,125
34,921
35,815
39,156
42,588
44,955
54
1,562
897
119
7,331
2,291
1,286
215
10,010
2.979
1,720
227
13, 281
3,282
1,767
229
14,653
3,190
1,740
233
15,194
3,208
1,874
249
16,084
3,331
2.071
258
16,637
3,609
2,261
273
17, 610
3,641
2,235
276
17,835
3,986
2,451
314
19, 627
4,414
2,748
369
22, 726
4,694
2,914
428
25,089
4,883
2,934
462
26,642
4,956
2,919
508
27, 432
5,211
3,139
582
30,224
5,476
3,352
603
33,157
5.792
3,385
647
35,131
55
56
57
58
341
612
778
1,028
1,009
721
725
685
689
796
864
889
898
952
1,024
1,098
59
1941
1942
1943
95,953
122,417
7,754
9,522
533
347
219
3,970
685
2,000
•
719
1.079
660
420
7,072
1,191
3. 527
5,154
4,489
7, 055
783.
910
2,259
3,434
Line
158
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table II-9.—Per Capita Personal Income, by States and Regions, 1929-40
[Dollars]
State and region
Line
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1
Continental United States
703
624
529
401
375
423
472
534
573
527
2
New England
876
806
718
572
535
583
616
691
715
601
690
627
913
871
1,029
575
648
569
844
787
926
491
560
468
767
712
805
379
430
360
622
576
621
374
419
339
570
561
587
413
477
370
616
596
654
428
495
409
646
639
704
500
536
462
718
706
804
505
565
478
735
723
859
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Maine ..- . .._ _
New Hampshire..Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island _._ _
Connecticut
-
-
__ .
New York
New Jersey
Pennsyl vania
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia
Great Lakes
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Wisconsin
. ._
.
-
_ _.
-
. .
_ _._
_.. - --_ _ .
. . .
.
..
Plains
Minnesota
Iowa
M issouri
North Dakota
South D a k o t a
Nebraska
Kansas
.-
-
-
-
- -
_. . .
--- -
-
--
__- .._
-
_
Southeast
Virginia
West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Arkansas
__ _ _
_
-
...__-
- - - -
- -
.._ .
- - - - - - -
Southwest
Oklahoma
Texas
New Mexico
Arizona
48
Rocky Mountain
49
Montana
54
.
Mideast
44
45
46
47
50
51
52
53
_
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
Utah
___.
- -
__ .
--
___
Far West
55
56
57
58
Washington
Oregon
Nevada
California
59
Territory of Hawaii
- -
-
_ __
1939
1940
556
595
656
704
757
470
534
452
677
670
769
493
559
480
727
713
834
523
579
507
784
743
917
973
890
762
588
543
598
637
723
757
701
738
790
1,159
931
775
1,017
777
1,273
1,043
859
716
849
719
1,262
886
745
602
769
640
1,198
681
592
451
588
511
1,051
634
529
421
565
465
900
684
578
482
628
521
921
723
628
517
690
545
974
810
713
599
850
617
1,095
839
750
634
929
664
1,162
792
700
562
782
633
1,096
825
751
599
916
661
1,117
870
822
648
1,004
712
1,170
803
684
568
411
380
449
518
593
656
574
621
667
793
781
612
957
682
659
671
519
816
595
540
568
439
675
474
394
404
311
489
364
349
390
297
442
336
452
457
357
508
380
528
519
419
575
463
616
597
480
652
519
682
651
545
731
553
572
565
474
650
512
624
619
519
705
517
679
665
553
754
554
572
510
419
315
279
306
401
411
474
439
456
483
598
577
628
375
417
590
535
552
507
569
305
358
517
468
458
398
495
182
239
410
399
363
295
368
176
188
306
268
311
254
338
145
129
276
251
358
268
368
177
179
255
285
447
417
422
266
300
401
357
470
387
468
229
240
390
381
535
508
508
319
319
409
421
494
455
478
278
316
402
382
517
469
506
314
340
395
380
526
501
524
350
359
439
426
368
313
273
204
207
242
266
304
327
302
319
343
435
462
391
377
334
270
350
521
324
285
415
305
384
411
325
325
293
241
308
464
266
203
358
223
368
358
289
275
248
204
256
395
222
174
318
209
282
258
210
197
187
157
199
314
161
126
239
155
283
260
205
204
207
174
204
284
165
131
226
155
314
311
229
240
245
205
240
339
205
165
260
177
345
337
262
260
269
226
267
367
215
175
286
201
386
389
290
300
295
253
301
440
248
222
325
239
417
416
334
328
321
267
311
476
262
220
348
247
387
371
292
298
296
249
290
452
243
200
346
226
422
387
303
308
316
273
310
486
250
205
357
242
466
407
320
339
328
307
340
513
282
218
363
256
474
401
334
250
245
276
314
354
399
384
394
418
454
478
407
591
368
411
333
514
299
346
287
424
216
262
209
315
222
253
209
300
247
284
243
353
293
318
286
406
317
363
333
454
369
408
354
492
343
396
333
468
345
409
352
477
373
432
375
497
596
538
422
331
314
362
435
500
499
487
500
531
595
503
677
637
559
503
497
584
580
505
383
370
476
474
378
337
270
374
356
309
299
228
365
355
300
361
378
403
369
314
473
393
489
442
392
477
461
542
538
465
513
418
601
531
450
514
421
553
507
450
530
434
585
516
462
570
464
608
546
487
910
816
680
520
490
546
600
703
727
708
726
785
750
683
878
995
665
620
826
889
538
513
649
746
403
384
542
574
378
363
500
541
439
439
531
592
489
464
650
651
568
554
822
760
600
564
748
786
586
544
762
764
617
582
841
775
662
623
876
840
525
577
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAY
159
Table II-9.—Per Capita Personal Income, by States and Regions, 1941-57
[Dollars]
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Line
719
909
1,102
1,194
1,234
1,249
1,316
1,420
1,382
1,491
1,649
1,727
1,788
1,770
1,866
1,961
2,027
1
903
1,104
1,276
1,313
1,336
1,379
1,438
1,511
1,474
1,628
1,831
1,917
1,968
1,944
2,084
2,215
2,298
2
620
707
629
902
921
1, 142
850
849
757
1, 074
1,134
1,417
1,087
967
902
1,261
1,184
1,590
1,091
1,048
930
1,300
1,261
1,601
1, 067
1,106
1,013
1, 351
1, 267
1,568
1,117
1,145
1,058
1,398
1,349
1,578
1,150
1,208
1,099
1, 434
1.436
1, 693
1.229
1, 269
1,170
1, 513
1, 513
1,751
1,175
1,244
1,122
1,490
1,464
1, 699
1,188
1,314
1,185
1, 662
1,644
1,908
1,326
1.473
1,335
1, 850
1,810
2, 206
1,452
1,530
1,403
1,919
1,855
2,334
1,455
1, 576
1,441
1,963
1,893
2,418
1,434
1,620
1, 468
1.937
1, 852
2,371
1,578
1.722
1,549
2,086
1,955
2, 515
1,641
1,785
1,625
2,236
2,000
2, 697
1,663
1,862
1, 605
2, 335
1,990
2.821
3
4
5
6
7
8
1,099
1,307
1,432
1,492
1,507
1,553
1,646
1,621
1,761
1,912
1,995
2,076
2,053
2,162
2,297
2,394
9
1, 109
1, 170
942
1.207
1, 120
1, 304
1,379
1,432
1,133
1,438
1,292
1, 508
1, 536
1,563
1,240
1,483
1,331
1, 561
1, 644
1, 591
1, 268
1, 507
1,318
1, 635
1, 691
1, 529
1,273
1,533
1,313
1, 689
1, 715
1,570
1, 348
1, 634
1,350
1,748
1,798
1,650
1,446
1, 763
1, 457
1, 905
1, 756
1,622
1,422
1, 896
1, 453
2,078
1,883
1,792
], 566
2.153
1,588
2.198
2. 001
1, 995
1,733
2, 257
1, 770
2,313
2, 087
2,113
1, 790
2,360
1,892
2,347
2, 150
2,224
1,892
2,482
1, 986
2, 230
2,174
2, 215
1, 804
2,422
1,939
2, 196
2, 305
2, 305
1,903
2,649
1,965
2,321
2, 456
2,408
2,027
2,844
2,105
2,442
2, 578
2, .504
2,112
2,740
2, 150
2,514
10
11
12
13
14
15
817
1,003
1,237
1,316
1,346
1,349
1,457
1,592
1,514
1,661
1,869
1,939
2,050
1,961
2,084
2,173
2,214
16
827
829
720
895
075
1,047
l,02S
913
1, 039
872
1,347
1, 259
1.132
1, 258
1,053
1,387
1,322
1,198
1,392
1, 115
1,319
1,349
1,248
1,470
1,186
1,318
1,311
1,193
1,530
1,209
1.454
1,412
1,303
1,636
1,294
1,542
1,552
1,440
1,809
1,402
1, 504
1,472
1, 364
1,690
1,361
1, 684
1, 614
1, 521
1,827
1,467
1, 855
1, 870
1,688
2. 030
1,694
1,932
1,958
1,758
2, 085
1, 751
2,120
2, 032
1,920
2,185
1,770
1,982
1,931
1. 796
2,156
1,694
2,145
2,070
1,903
2,251
1, 786
2,158
2,184
1,977
2,385
1,872
2.141
2,255
2,010
2,447
1,920
17
18
19
20
21
597
805
967
1,046
1,112
1,164
1,244
1,414
1,292
1,408
1,529
1,604
1,609
1,652
1,660
1,724
1,823
22
017
007
040
522
470
548
552
790
825
809
054
742
811
849
935
995
962
927
816
993
1,034
998
984
1,073
1, 002
950
1,072
1,164
1,100
1,069
1,134
1,009
1,047
1,163
1,159
1,174
1,207
1, 186
1,046
1,083
1,151
1,116
1,256
1,190
1,221
1,446
1,232
1,243
1,288
1, 404
1,547
1,384
1,383
1,451
1,463
1,276
1, 298
1,320
1,344
1,136
1,094
1,305
1,245
1,397
1,447
1,443
1, 260
1,213
1.468
1,374
1, 533
1, 551
1, 562
1,320
1,414
1, 549
1,512
1,578
1,617
1,664
1,222
1,239
1,652
1,716
1,646
1,546
1,721
1,228
1,331
1,578
1,641
1,649
1,691
1,712
1.241
1, 360
1,668
1,697
1,710
1,571
1,805
1,365
1,266
1,585
1,679
1,767
1,641
1,905
1,407
1,307
1,605
1,717
1,850
1,800
1,940
1,435
1,531
1,818
1,787
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
435
584
719
814
856
849
883
968
943
1,009
1,128
1,194
1,232
1,229
1,319
1,385
1,427
30
581
495
392
433
420
392
424
597
375
313
449
338
782
013
533
555
575
540
571
709
515
440
593
471
839
738
689
717
691
039
725
985
651
528
784
541
898
822
759
856
765
724
835
1, 090
735
627
879
672
946
890
794
902
821
743
882
1,151
780
627
892
722
990
921
811
856
858
763
844
1,137
1, 002
1,029
850
876
894
779
884
1, 143
794
662
881
719
1,112
1,146
965
935
943
879
948
1,184
856
753
1,002
846
1, 101
1,062
921
925
919
838
932
1,203
810
667
1,059
1,222
1,095
958
995
1,009
881
1,016
1,288
867
729
1,089
1,474
1,274
1,191
1,136
1,149
1,111
1,208
1. 466
1, 045
851
1,250
1,481
1,278
1,224
1,219
1,165
1,132
1,246
1,556
1,081
1,296
780
805
1,394
1,215
1,116
1,081
1,114
1,043
1,145
1,380
989
792
1,176
908
967
988
1,508
1,224
1,221
1,213
1,196
1,071
1,222
1,533
1,071
875
1.302
1,006
1, 569
1,316
1,264
1,279
1,279
1,134
1,349
1,665
1,202
981
1.361
1,091
1, 636
1,456
1,339
1,347
1,333
1,157
1,412
1, 755
1,254
964
1,454
1,123
1, 66(3
1,554
1,372
1, 383
1,317
1,180
1,431
1,836
1,324
958
1,566
1,151
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
506
698
892
1,010
1,030
1,006
1,100
1,173
1,246
1,286
1,415
1,497
1,528
1,550
1,605
1,676
1,752
43
434
524
471
628
624
712
628
898
774
931
758
986
944
1.038
869
1,036
967
1,051
926
1,107
939
1,028
906
1,083
1.015
1,128
988
1,149
1,129
1,187
1,075
1,242
1,155
1,283
1,113
1,245
1,133
1,340
1,163
1,297
1, 285
1,447
1,297
1,551
1,398
1.519
1, 364
1,647
1,459
1,550
1,394
1,610
1,464
1,581
1,417
1,574
1, 525
1,640
1,463
1.584
1,573
1,714
1, 535
1, 684
1,619
1,791
1,686
1,750
44
45
46
47
916
995
960
771
1, 141
873
1, 205
744
605
829
729
874
654
899
1,072
1,095
1,168
1,195
1,324
1,387
1,346
1,428
1,647
1,703
1,672
1,637
1,707
1,785
1,865
48
715
594
783
048
603
896
904
944
891
890
1,128
1,004
1,142
1,030
1,132
1,168
1,080
1,229
1,063
1,058
1,191
1,114
1,258
1,183
1,128
1,278
1,169
1.340
1,195
1,094
1,457
1,251
1,488
1,338
1,178
1,596
1,281
1,554
1,394
1.219
1,390
1,239
1,588
1,385
1,224
1,606
1,279
1, 629
1,446
1,283
1,768
1,446
1,890
1,732
1,456
1, 780
1, 568
1, 841
1,804
1,502
1,786
1,487
1,861
1,735
1,528
1, 733
1,484
1,814
1,694
1,498
1.844
1,506
1,833
1,784
1,554
1,871
1, 616
1,927
1,870
1,619
1,896
1, 630
2, 038
1, 996
1,694
49
50
51
52
53
966
1,256
1,514
1,557
1,535
1,585
1,633
1,711
1.687
1,795
1,984
2,078
2,126
2,113
2,234
2,348
2,407
54
1, 203
1, 140
1,547
1,281
1,473
1,401
1,493
1,540
1,535
1,415
1,477
1,582
1,425
1.381
1,585
1,580
1,395
1,396
1,717
1,654
1,497
1,518
1,732
1,678
1,600
1,609
1,750
1,750
1,587
1,562
1,758
1,725
1,671
1. 602
1,938
1,848 [
1,816
1,751
2,171
2,051
1,912
1,824
2,339
2,144
1,971
1,811
2,357
2, 196
1,961
1, 764
2, 330
2, 186
1,990
1, 853
2, 376
2,330
2, 047
1,934
2,355
2, 461
2,128
1,914
2.423
2,523
55
56
57
58
1,186
1,239
1,328
1,312
1,384
1,411
1,354
1,403
1,586
1,721
1,740
1,717
1,731
1,787
1,821
59
871
838
975
1,009
749
1,087
1
160
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table II—10.—Disposable Personal Income, Total and Per Capita, by States and Regions, Selected Years, 1929—55
1929
Continental United States..
New England
Maine
New Hampshire..
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Mideast.
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
District of Columbia..
Great Lakes
Michigan...
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Wisconsin..
Plains.
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
__.
North Dakota..
South Dakota..
Nebraska
Kansas
Southeast.
Virginia
West Virginia...
Kentucky
Tennessee
North Carolina..
South Carolina..
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Arkansas
Per capita (dollars)
Total (millions of dollars)
State and region
Line
1946
1950
1953
1955
1929
1940
1946
1950
1953
1955
83,020
75,924
157,003
204,729
247,752.
271,240
682
575
1,116
1,354
1,565
6,901
6,169
10,874
13,769
16,306
17,789
849
730
1,221
1,477
1,716
1,835
467
315
220
3,724
577
1,598
432
275
178
3,261
515
1,508
859
515
333
5, 562
951
2,654
1,012
644
416
6,996
1,170
3. 531
1,165
756
487
8,096
1, 359
4,443
1,333
851
512
8,811
1,431
4,851
586
675
613
881
844
1,003
509
559
490
755
716
883
1,029
1,040
974
1,226
1,204
1, 389
1,106
1,211
1,101
1,491
1,494
1,745
1,306
1,382
1,295
1,703
1, 665
2,100
1,449
1.539
1,399
1,828
1,730
2,196
26,361
22,952
41,246
53,327
62,559
67,981
934
757
1,320
1,579
1,789
1,884
13,381
3,593
7,332
222
1,230
603
11,142
3,325
6,199
232
1,265
789
19, 645
6,129
11,213
383
2, 554
1,322
24, 938
7,899
14,991
565
3,335
1,599
28, 371
9.968
17, 584
695
4,303
1,638
31, 495
10, 928
18, 272
834
4,742
1,710
1,099
901
754
941
759
1,248
828
796
626
862
688
1,143
1,462
1,360
1,135
1.277
1,147
1,480
1,674
1,627
1,425
1.766
1,411
1,981
1,834
1,943
1, 652
1,969
1,699
1,936
1,988
2,039
1,680
2,106
1,709
2,038
19,636
17,310
34,245
46,020
57,194
61,871
780
648
1,205
1,506
1,783
1,836
3,673
5,037
1,934
7,050
1,942
3,502
4, 475
1,854
5,804
1,675
6,938
8,822
3,998
11,039
3,448
9,776
11,711
5,515
14, 438
4,580
12, 540
15,023
7,132
17,059
5,440
13,873
16, 348
7,388
18, 466
5,796
766
760
600
927
662
659
646
.540
734
533
1,181
1,174
1,080
1,352
1,088
1,524
1,466
1,397
1,650
1,328
1,831
1,763
1,709
1,895
1,541
1,885
1,820
1,704
1,982
1,565
7,402
6,336
13,950
18,192
20,485
22,108
558
469
1,058
1,290
1,422
1,487
1,494
1,385
2,221
247
281
797
977
1,422
1,236
1,928
218
224
564
744
2,898
2,737
4,045
545
595
1, 307
1,823
3,787
3,494
5,233
718
742
1,803
2,415
4,439
3,668
6,148
694
807
1,868
2,861
4,819
3, 831
6,772
802
795
1,989
3,100
581
563
613
366
407
580
523
510
487
509
341
349
429
416
1, 059
1,109
1,076
956
1,012
1,041
1,011
1,264
1,331
1,323
1,158
1,135
1,358
1,256
1,447
1,379
1, 511
1,105
1,219
1.399
1,444
1,512
1,413
1,613
1,255
1,169
1,431
1,505
9;785
10,094
24,826
31,722
39,001
42,902
360
333
782
936
1,113
1,200
1,032
782
1,000
963
1,021
462
998
727
839
561
848
552
1,232
758
893
970
1,134
572
1,031
937
782
464
834
487
3, 080
1, 558
2,060
2,428
2,971
1,387
2, 508
2,517
1,994
1,181
1,910
1,232
3, 699
2, 057
2,612
3,056
3,832
1,749
3,255
3,329
2,471
1,511
2,706
1,445
4,639
2,313
3,260
3,664
4,435
2,331
4,052
4,496
3,037
1,764
3, 343
1, 667
426
455
384
370
326
266
344
503
317
281
407
298
453
397
312
330
317
301
331
489
275
213
352
249
914
852
747
789
797
713
771
1,018
686
570
752
683
1,123
1,023
883
925
942
825
942
1,181
806
693
1,003
756
1,316
1,161
1,095
1,103
1,057
1,037
1,132
1,388
982
816
1,164
910
1,408
1,198
1,137
1,168
1,174
1,046
1,233
1,496
1,098
921
1,228
1,009
5,025
2,354
3,400
3,970
5,079
2,403
4,494
5, 471
3,387
1,937
3, 595
1,787
1,651
4,169
3,985
9,588
13,388
16,532
18,405
464
407
912
1,174
1,353
1,440
Oklahoma
Texas
New Mexico..
Arizona
1,056
2,699
167
247
844
2,708
193
240
1, 831
6,688
464
605
2,293
9,459
736
900
2,811
11,499
937
1, 285
3, 008
12,893
1,039
1,465
445
468
363
421
363
481
859
929
826
979
1,034
1.221
1,073
1,192
1,298
1,369
1,238
1,436
1,373
1,470
1,312
1,412
Rocky Mountain.
1,575
1,552
3,364
4,584
5,433
5,941
581
515
1,082
1,306
1,475
1,521
305
219
148
625
278
311
236
148
595
262
601
543
309
1,268
643
884
694
435
1,744
827
975
790
479
2,167
1, 022
1,041
826
507
2,449
1.118
582
490
664
620
547
557
452
592
527
475
1,169
1,067
1,221
1,060
1,008
1,483
1,172
1, 495
1,306
1,190
1,593
1,330
1,629
1,509
1,366
1,658
1,356
1,630
1,570
1,399
7,191
7,526
18,910
23,727
30,242
34,243
885
761
1,399
1,614
vl,841
1,954
1,138
627
77
5,349
1,124
658
95
5,649
2,882
1,666
209
14,153
3,631
2,205
276
17,615
4,277
2,537
382
23, 046
732
662
856
967
646
606
841
813
1,253
1,241
1,441
1,455
1,522
1,441
1,704
1,659
1,727
1,566
1,949
1,899
1,769
1,623
2,020
2,033
239
639
622
561
1,166
1,267
1,532
1,547
Southwest.
Montana. .
Idaho
Wyoming.
Colorado. .
Utah
Far West.
Washington.
Oregon
Nevada
California
Territory of Hawaii..
4,631
2,750
495
26, 367
851
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAY
Table II—11.—Distribution of Consumer
Units and Their Family Personal Income by Income Brackets, Selected Years, 1944—56
Aggregate family personal income (millions of dollars)
Number of families a n d unattached individuals (thousands)
Line Family personal income
(before income taxes)
Line
1944
1946
1947
1950
4,352
8,108
8,762
7,723
4,535
3,826
7,606
8,791
8,590
5,364
3,748
7,370
8,459
8,628
5,725
2,515
2,259
1,385
3,065
2,547
1,751
$10,000-$14,999
$15,000-$19,999
$20,000-$24,999
707
246
108
$25,000-$49,999
$50,000 a n d over
140
40
Under $1,000
$l,000-$l,999
$2,000-$2,999
$3,000-13,999
$4,000-$4,999
$5,000-$5,999
$6,000-$7,499
$7,500-$9,999
161
...
...
Total
1951
1956
1944
1946
1947
1950
2,390
12, 338
21,938
26,960
20, 261
2,017
11, 570
22, 007
29,906
23, 956
1,973
11,231
21,176
30,045
25, 583
1951
1952
1953
1954
1952
1953
1954
1955
3,861 3,227
7,464 6,022
8,091 7,164
8, 586 8,192
7,054 7, 455
3,282
5,687
6, 541
7,636
7,631
2,956
5,554
6,364
7,061
7,117
3,071
5,889
6,509
7,291
7,118
2,918
5,327
6,272
7,275
7,117
3,474
3,151
2,170
4, 694 5,580
3,836 5,323
2,758 3,390
6, 072 6,152 6, 032 6, 363 6,540 13, 739 16, 725 18, 957 25,603 30, 502 33, 200 33, 702 33,033
5,801 6, 379 6, 284 6, 940 7, 416 14, 942 16, 833 20, 812 25, 578 35, 596 38,759 42,611 41, 947
4,121 4, 768' 4, 734 5,186 6, 042 11,802 14, 905 18,454 23, 364 28, 531 34, 660 40, 707 40, 333
1,070
332
143
1,199
386
167
1,536
414
218
M523
2,041
598
316
2,636
734
274
2, 661
745
313
3,017
852
356
191
54
208
55
294
84
336
95
384
100
383
98
397
106
433
114
2,688
4,954
5,871
6,784
6, 941
1955
1956
1,943 1,1
1,688 1,518 1,571
8,627 8,438 8,951
11, 333 9,1
20, 273 17,945 16,411 15, 998 16, 345
29,983 28, 696 26, 792 24,817 25,615
31, 533 33, 552 34, 305 32, 057 32,055
3, 545 8,483 12, 784 14, 300 18, 310 22,617 24, 212 31,561 31, 856
4, 215 5,692 6,586 7,083 8,933 10, 214 12, 557 12, 749
2, 395 3,165 3,700 4,826 6,063
6,821 6,931
2, 019
4, 651 6,308 6,879 9,743 11,097 ] 2, 633 12, 793 13, 294 14, 528
3,607 4,837 4,902 7,690 8,356 8,675 8,606 9,276 10,118
9
10
11
12
13
40,880 43,330 44,740 48,890 49,480 50,210 50,510 51,150 52,170 52,800 147,721 170, 705 184,598 217,262 242,652 257,162 272,186 273,956 291,905 312,255
14
$3, 614 $3, 940 $4,126 $4, 444 $4, 904 $5,122 $5, 389 $5, 356 $5,595 $5,914
15
Average (mean) family
personal income.
Table 11-12.—Distributions of Nonfarm Families, Farm Operator Families, and Unattached Individuals and Their Family Personal Income,
by Income Brackets, 1953-56
Nonfarm families
Line
1954
1953
Family personal income (before income taxe;
taxes)
Unattached individuals
Farm operator families
1956
1953
1954
1955
1956
Number (thousands)
Under $1,000..
$l,000-$l,999_$2,000-$2,999..
$3,000-$3,999__
$4,000-$4,999_ _
408
1,955
3,216
4,872
5,852
513
2,306
3,367
5,122
5,872
471
1,848
3,178
5,035
5,824
433
1,663
2,891
4,523
5,554
530
1,145
1,019
804
569
526
1,130
1,000
787
557
973
775
546
462
1,035
939
752
538
2,019
2,454
2,129
1,385
697
2,032
2,454
2,142
1,381
689
1,948
2,393
2,122
1,464
747
1,794
2, 255
2,041
1,509
849
$5,000-$5,999__
$6,000-$7,499. _
$7,500-$9,999- -
5,444
5,848
4,399
5,344
5,769
4,374
5,613
6,389
4,809
5, 704
6,806
5,632
399
347
250
387
335
242
385
338
244
390
347
251
309
184
119
302
180
118
365
213
133
446
263
159
$10,000-$14,999_$15,000-$19,999..
$20,000-$24,999_.
2,420
672
280
2,452
686
286
2,799
791
327
3,307
158
44
18
152
42
18
154
43
18
160
57
17
10
56
17
65
18
11
78
$25,000-$49,999_.
$50,000 a n d over
347
89
361
97
397
104
1,873
21
4
21
4
90
15
5
15
5
16
5
35,802
36,549
37,585
38,386
5,308
5,201
4,964
9,400
9,400
9,500
9,450
Total .
Line
Family personal income (before income taxes)
5,085
Aggregate family personal income (millions of dollars)
Under $1,000..
$l,000-$l,999__
$2,000-$2,999__
$3,000-$3,999_.
$4,000-$4,999._
198
3,037
8.186
17, 236
26, 402
246
3,581
8,569
18,118
26,490
226
2,874
8,100
17, 838
26, 315
201
2,591
7,357
15, 994
25, 018
363
1,730
2,537
2,807
2,555
360
1,704
2,483
2,740
2,497
342
1,633
2,407
2,690
2,444
318
1.557
2,327
2,615
2,410
957
3,672
5,275
4,774
3,100
965
3,666
5,293
4,757
3,068
912
3,573
5,264
5,063
3,328
861
3,354
5,058
5,232
3,770
$5,000-$5,999_ _
$6,000-$7,499__
$7,500-$9,999._
29,838
39,087
37, 557
29,278
38, 524
37,266
30, 791
42, 778
41,057
31,287
45. 619
48,038
2,183
2,307
2,137
2,117
2,229
2,070
2,104
2,250
2,085
2,129
2,310
2,150
1,680
1,218
1,013
1,638
1,194
998
1,976
1,414
1,129
2,422
1,740
1,351
$10,000-$14,999..
$15,000-$19,999..
$20,000-$24,999_.
28,990
11, 512
6,201
29, 361
11, 735
6,331
33.563
13, 561
7,245
39, 642
1,890
753
406
1,826
722
392
1,843
732
399
1,916
680
293
213
669
292
208
767
313
242
925
$25,000-$49,999...
$50,000 and over-
11, 567
7,812
12, 095
8,478
13,291
9,231
719
340
694
349
701
376
507
454
505
448
537
511
Total
227,623
230,072
246,870
265,725
20,727
20,183
20,006
$6,358
$6, 295
$6,568
$6, 922
$3,905
$3,881
$3,934
1
\
Average (mean) family personal income-
49,978
J
Quintile (consumer
units ranked by
income)
Percent distribution of family personal income
Lowest
2
3
4.
Highest
6
Total
7
Top 5 percent
2,298
1, 787
1
J
20,030
23,836
23,701
25,029
26,500
$4,035
$2, 536
$2, 521
$2,635
$2,804
Units , Selected Years , 1944-56
Lower income limit of quintile
Mean family personal income
Line
1944
1
2
3
4
5
1
}
Table 11-13.—Distribution of Family Personal Income Among Quintiles of Consumers
Line
56
1947
1950
1953
1956
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
$1,023
2,275
3,308
4,542
9,483
$1, 056
2,418
3,579
4,911
10,254
$1,322
3,038
4,471
6,072
12,041
$1, 465
3,345
4,876
6,617
13, 266
$1, 510
2,450
3,410
4,800
$1, 730
2,800
3,830
5,470
$1, 810
3,020
4,160
5,850
$2,260
3,770
5,180
7,160
$2, 510
4,120
5,660
7,790
8,240
9,560
10,200
12, 320
13,490
4.9
10.9
16.2
22.2
45.8
5.0
11.0
16.0
22.0
46.0
4.8
10.9
16.1
22.1
46.1
4.9
11.3
16.6
22.5
44.7
5.0
11.3
16.5
22.3
44.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
3,614
4,126
4,444
5,389
5,914
20.7
20.9
21.4
19.9
20.1
14, 963
17, 226
19,066
21,481
23,794
$882
1,979
2,920
4,014
8,272
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
HI. Government Receipts and Expenditures*
PAGE
III—1. Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures, 1946-57 (8 and 9)
III—2. State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures, 1946-57 (8
and 9)
III—3. Government Receipts and Expenditures, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57
'
164
165
166
III—4. Government Receipts and Expenditures, Quarterly, 1946-57
168
III-5. Social Insurance Funds, 1946-57 (10)
170
III—6. Contributions for Social Insurance, 1946-57 (34 and 35)
170
III—7. Government Transfer Payments to Persons, 1946-57 (36)
171
111-8. Government Expenditures by Type of Function, 1952-57
172
111-9. Object Breakdown of Government Purchases of Goods and Services,
Selected Functions, 1952-57
"
III—10. Relation of Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures in the National
Income Accounts to the Budget, 1952—57
111-11. Relation of State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures in
the National Income Accounts to Bureau of Census Data, Fiscal Years
1952-56
*Figures in parentheses refer to corresponding tables in the 1954 National Income supplement.
178
178
179
164
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table III-l.—Federal Government
Receipts and Expenditures,
1946-57 l
[Millions of dollars]
Line
Receipts.
Personal tax and nontax receipts before refunds.
Income taxes.
Estate and gift
taxes.
Other taxes 2
Nontaxess
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
39,200
43,311
43,411
39,062
50,216
18,815
17,987
734
1
21,323
20,446
830
20,783
19.825
900
18, 562
17, 751
754
19,888
19,167
659
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
64,462
67,707
70,341
63,777
72,757
78,737
82,458
28, 078
27,247
751
33, 301
32,370
850
34,976
33, 981
922
32,055
31,067
921
34,621
33, 572
38,494
37,151
1,281
40,895
39,385
1,448
Line
47
58
57
62
81
73
67
67
62
62
1,673
1,786
2,368
1.709
1,800
2,136
2,617
2,900
3,100
3,250
3,506
19, 650
18.997
16,194
18,179
26, 278
31,165
32,359
29,155
31, 521
35,244
37,389
10, 679
11,813
9,773
17,098
21, 569
18,639
19, 419
16, 455
20,869
4\, 381
20,655
7,943
7,297
2,330
1,267
3.700
436
8,173
7,501
2,177
1,312
4,012
410
8,230
7,561
2,204
1,320
4,037
381
9,099
8,252
2,419
1,348
4,485
549
11, 276
10, 215
2,820
1,614
5,781
10,143
9,048
2,706
1,543
4,799
565
11,136
8,677
2,459
1,447
4,771
591
10, 593
9,622
2,726
1,663
5,233
582
2,806
1,596
5,464
679
11, 726
10,370
3,044
1,638
5,688
743
12, 403
10,926
2,902
1,704
6,320
787
205
210
262
298
330
389
472
530
591
613
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
79
69
83
72
67
68
68
82
88
96
125
191
18
7,896
7,874
8,090
8.158
9,032
9, 530
10, 525
11,194
10,055
11,040
11,601
12, 212
19
5, 493
5,108
4,511
4,937
5,907
7,085
7,378
7,369
9,327
10, 511
12,202
20
37,014
31,135
35,414
41,599
41,027
58,045
71,613
77,715
68,915
71,900
79,582
21
20, 582
14, 545
931
7,801
2,695
15, 650
9,343
951
6,483
1,127
19,306
8,895
1,187
9,727
503
22,241
9,966
1,488
10,969
182
19, 348
10, 690
1, 625
7,144
111
38, 768
16,193
2,982
19, 902
309
52,854
18,837
4,186
30,102
271
57,964
18, 509
4,151
35,618
314
47, 548
17,683
3, 445
26, 735
315
45, 282
18, 240
2,800
24,600
358
45, 721
18,841
2,772
24,439
331
49,381
19,427
3,018
27,358
422
22
23
24
25
26
Transfer payments..
To persons. 5
Foreign (net) ~
9,535
9,214
321
9,009
8,887
122
9,213
7,652
1,561
11, 992
8, 754
3,238
13, 675
10,884
2,791
10,810
8,663
2,147
10,384
8,906
1,478
11,252
9,669
1,583
12,969
11,607
1,362
14,028
12, 514
1,514
14,895
13,475
1,420
17,347
15,896
1,451
27
28
29
Grants-in-aid to State and local governments 6_
1,108
1,738
2,228
2,339
2,478
2,635
2,811
2,882
3,050
3,257
4,087
30
Net interest paid
Interest paid
Less: Interest received.
Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises 7 . . .
4,170
5,217
1,047
4,167
5,230
1,063
4,400
5,611
1,211
4,509
5,804
1,295
4,709
5,996
1,287
4,729
6,290
1.561
4,846
6,637
1,791
5,006
6,887
1,881
4,920
6,863
1,943
5,238
7,596
2,358
5,632
8,397
2,765
81
32
Less: Tax refunds
Equals: Personal tax and nontax receipts.
Corporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals before refunds
Excise taxes
Liquor
Tobacco
Other
Customs duties
Capital stock
tax
Nontaxes 4
Less: Tax refunds
Equals: Indirect business tax and nontax accruals..
Contributions for social insurance
Expenditures
Purchases cf goods and services.Compensation of employees.
New construction
Other purchases
Less: Government sales
Surplus or deficit (—) on income and product account.
93
1,653
17,162
8,649
7,975
7,267
2.691
1,219
3,357
503
4,264
5,354
1,090
69,570
1,619
571
645
738
1,156
1,280
1,011
842
1,165
1,635
2,789
3,135
34
2,186
12,176
7,997
-2,537
9,189
6,417
-3,906
-7,374
-5,793
3,842
6,837
2,876
35
1. Includes transactions of social insurance funds, which can be separated by use of the
data furnished in table III-5. For an explanation of the t r e a t m e n t of Government enterprises, see P a r t II of 1954 National Income supplement. For a list of these enterprises, see
footnotes to the table on industrial classification in the Introduction to Part I I I of the 1954
supplement.
2. Consists of dividends tax and automobile use tax.
3. Consists mainly of charges for Government products and services not accounted for under
Government enterprises; of fines and penalties; and of donations. Receipts from the sale of
surplus property are not included.
4. Consists mainly of charges for Government products and services not accounted for
under Government enterprises, including rents and royalties; and of fines and penalties.
Receipts from the sale of surplus property are not included.
8,112,
5. Consists of net Government grants in cash, net Government pensions and other transfers, and net income on investments paid by Government.
6. Includes shared receipts as well as grants-in-aid. The latter consist of highway grants,
education grants (agricultural research and education, vocational education, and rehabilitation, defense training and research programs, and veterans' postwar training programs),
public assistance grants (mainly categorical assistance under the Social Security program),
grants for the administration of the Unemployment Compensation program and of the U. S.
Employment Service, Public Health grants, the Federal contribution to the District of Columbia, and miscellaneous other grants.
7. Subsidies reflected consist of Government payments to farmers, payments for the exportation and diversion of surplus agricultural commodities, shipping subsidies, and subsidy
payments to air carriers.
GOVERNMENT
RECEIPTS AND
EXPENDITURES
165
Table III-2.—State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures, 1946-57 l
[Millions of dollars]
Line
Receipts
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Income taxes
Death and gift taxes 2
Motor vehicle licenses .
Property taxes 3
Other taxes
*
Nontaxes 5
,
_._ _
Corporate profits tax accruals
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals
Sales tax..
States
General __
Gasoline
Liquor
T obacco
Local. -__ - _.Motor vehicle licenses 2 . . .
Property taxes 3
_
Other taxes 7 . _
Nontaxes8...
Federal grants-in-aid
9
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
13,042
15,502
17,818
19,580
21,418
23,491
25,498
27,408
29, 111
31,728
34,945
37,838
1,567
409
153
199
155
86
565
1,818
488
177
226
171
101
655
2,138
571
183
253
189
115
827
2,471
721
175
288
211
130
946
2,634
779
182
326
227
141
979
2,933
910
209
373
245
149
1,047
3,192
1,008
218
397
266
169
1,134
3,426
1,048
238
421
287
182
1, 250
3,785
1,143
255
458
306
191
1,432
4,227
1,355
285
504
330
223
1,530
4,815
1,580
336
543
360
235
1,761
5,359
1,778
357
573
384
249
2,018
462
604
670
602
767
878
820
803
765
958
1,041
994
9,417
2,899
2,716
1. 051
1,020
427
218
183
271
4,836
1,037
374
10, 767
3,508
3,202
1,330
1,176
407
289
306
324
5,346
1,158
12, 315
4,115
3, 715
1,584
1,318
439
374
400
368
5,938
1,346
13, 479
4,333
3,882
1,609
1,451
418
404
451
412
6,642
1,501
14, 715
4,801
4,317
1,828
1,625
442
422
484
460
7,143
1,634
16,117
5,366
4,815
2,118
1,791
462
444
551
517
7,696
1,784
17, 615
5,847
5,220
2,347
1,968
449
456
627
570
8,385
1,993
19,009
6,264
5, 546
2,509
2,100
471
466
718
629
9,096
2,189
20,096
6,469
5,766
2,557
2,296
455
458
703
675
9,673
2,307
21, 825
7,103
6,324
2,838
2,491
514
481
779
728
10, 434
2,517
24,030
7,989
7,100
3,208
2,787
565
540
889
782
11, 395
2,790
25,432
8,435
7,660
3,512
2,902
575
571
875
832
12,079
2,984
431
548
591
677
754
820
831
972
1,043
1,074
1,102
575
709
800
963
1,085
1,236
1,359
1,583
1,668
1,802
1,966
1,108
33
Less: Current surplus of government enterprises
Surplus or deficit (—) on income and product account
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
1,738
1,986
2,228
2,339
2,478
2,635
2,811
2,882
3,050
3,257
4,087
9,916
6,177
1,431
2,308
17,567
15, 230
8,502
3,640
3,088
20,156
17,918
9,422
4,916
3,580
22,428
19,681
10,124
5,376
4,181
23,790
21, 692
11,069
6,437
4,186
25,447
23,190
12,174
6,715
4,301
27,136
24, 866
13,246
7,243
4,377
30,053
27, 706
14, 620
8,477
4,609
32,713
30,310
15, 727
9,161
5,422
35,499
33,117
17,439
10,233
5,445
39,009
36,300
19,197
11, 336
5,767
25
26
27
28
1,640
2,226
2,890
2,868
3,420
2,927
3,135
3,218
3,354
3,536
3,619
3,972
29
293
555
262
253
521
268
263
550
287
270
585
315
285
624
339
264
656
392
287
733
446
325
814
489
401
945
544
469
1, 088
619
507
1,241
542
1,361
30
31
32
751
797
816
900
958
1,093
1,165
1,273
1,408
1,602
1,944
1. See footnote 1 to table III—1.
2. State only; includes State drivers' licenses.
3. Property taxes levied on houses of owner-occupants are classified as indirect business
taxes.
4. Consists of poll taxes and miscellaneous licenses and permits.
5. Consists of charges for government products and services not accounted for under government enterprises (such as tuition fees and public hospital fees); fines and penalties; donations;
and special assessments for outlay paid by unincorporated business, including homeowners.
Line
14,414
12, 732
7,320
2,483
2,929
11,098
Expenditures
30
31
32
34
1947
Contributions for social insurance
Purchases of goods and services. _
Compensation of employees
New construction,.
Other purchases . . .
Transfer payments to persons
Net interest paid
Interest paid.Less: Interest received
29
1946
251
-576
-1,010
-299
51
272
-942
734
819
1,744
1,805
-554
-1,171
24
33
-985
34
6. Minor State sales taxes not specified below are included in "Other taxes."
7. Consists of gross receipts taxes, franchise taxes, licenses, permits, severance taxes, documentary and stock transfer taxes, and minor State sales taxes.
8. Consists mainly of charges for government products and services not accounted for under
government enterprises, including rents and royalties; fines and penalties; special assessments
for operation; and donations.
9. See footnote 6 to table III-l.
166
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table III-3.—Government Receipts and Expenditures, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-47 1
[Billions of dollars]
1946
Line
ni
IV
Year
III
IV
Year
35.1
37.8
41.0
42.9
39.2
43.5
42.8
42.5
44.5
43.3
16.2
5.7
7.5
5.7
17.0
7.4
7.8
5,6
17.5
10.0
8.1
5.4
17.9
11.6
8.2
5.3
17.2
8.6
7.9
5.5
19.3
10.8
7.8
5.5
19.4
10.3
7.6
5.5
19.7
10.3
7.7
4.7
20.2
11.3
8.3
4.7
19.6
10.7
7.9
5.1
Federal Government expenditures...
44.4
37.1
33.7
32.8
37.0
30.6
29.6
33.7
30.6
31.1
Purchases of goods and services..
25.9
20.2
18.1
18.1
20.6
15.9
15.1
15.9
15.7
15.6
Transfer payments.
To persons
Foreign (net)___
10.9
10.5
9.8
9.6
.2
9.0
8.8
.3
8.4
8.0
8.3
8.3
.0
7.9
7.8
.1
11.4
11.1
8.4
8.2
9.0
8.9
.1
1.5
1.8
Federal Government receipts..
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Corporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals..
Contributions for social insurance
.5
Grants-in-aid to State and local governments
Net interest paid
4.1
Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprisesSurplus or deficit (—) on income and product account
State and local government receipts
2.5
12.2
1.5
.3
9.0
.4
1.0
.4
.3
1.1
2.0
1.2
4.2
4.2
.8
1.6
10.1
2.2
7.3
12.6
13.4
1.5
.4
9.2
.5
.9
1.6
.5
9.6
.5
1.2
4.1
4.2
.7
.6
12.9
.2
.2
1.8
1.8
4.2
4.2
.5
8.7
13.9
15.8
16.3
1.9
.6
11.4
.6
1.8
15.6
13.7
2.5
.2
.8
12.7
2.2
.3
.8
.7
1.1
13.2
14.6
15.3
13.0
1.6
.5
9.4
.5
1.1
11.1
1.7
.6
10.1
.6
1.5
1.8
.6
10.6
.6
1.8
10.0
10.6
11.6
13.2
13.9
8.9
1.5
.3
.8
9.5
1.5
.3
.7
10.2
1.8
.3
.7
11.0
1.8
.3
.8
9.9
1.6
.3
.8
11.9
1.8
.3
.8
12.4
2.1
.3
.8
1.9
.6
11.0
.6
1.8
14.9
12.9
2.6
.2
.8
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.4
.9
Purchases of goods and services
Transfer payments to persons
Net interest paid
Less: Current surplus of government enterprises
Surplus or deficit (—) on income and product account.
1.7
4.2
.5
13.9
1.6
.6
9.8
.5
1.4
12.3
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Corporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accrualsContributions for social insurance
Federal grants-in-aid
State and local government expenditures...
4.2
.7
-9.3
_
4.2
9.2
1.4
1.2
1.0
9.5
12.2
15.5
1.8
.6
10.8
.6
1.7
14.4
I. Footnotes to tables III-l and III-2 are relevant to this table also.
Table III-3.—Government Receipts and Expenditures, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1952-53 ]
[Billions of dollars]
1952
1953
Line
II
I
Federal Government receipts..
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Corporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals^
Contributions for social insurance
Federal Government expenditures
Purchases of goods and services
Transfer payments
To persons
Foreign (net)
Grants-in-aid to State and local governments
Net interest paid
Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises.
Surplus or deficit (—) on income and product account
Year
IV
III
Year
IV
III
II
I
67.4
66.8
67.0
69.6
67.7
71.6
72.3
71.1
66.3
70.3
30.8
19.2
10.0
7.4
30.8
18.0
10.6
7.3
31.3
17.9
10.5
7.3
31.7
19.4
11.0
7.5
31.2
18.6
10.5
7.4
32. 1
20.7
11.3
7.5
32.5
21.0
11.3
7.5
32.5
20.0
11.3
7.3
32.3
15.9
10.9
7.2
32.4
19.4
11.2
7.4
66.5
70.9
74.3
74.7
71.6
76.7
79.4
76.8
78.1
77.7
48.5
52.1
55.0
55.8
52.9
57.4
58.9
57.7
57.8
58.0
9.6
8.5
1.1
10.4
8.5
1.9
11.0
9.2
1.7
10.5
9.3
1.2
10.4
8.9
1.5
11.4
9.6
1.8
11.4
9.5
1.9
10.7
9.5
1.2
11.6
10.2
1.4
11.3
9.7
1.6
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.2
3.4
2.7
2.9
2.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.8
1.1
1.0
1.0
.9
1.0
.9
.8
.8
.9
.8
1.0
-4.2
-7.2
-5.1
-3.9
-5.1
-7.0
-5.6
-11.8
-7.4
24.6
25.3
25.7
26.4
25.5
26.3
27.8
27.5
27.9
27.4
State and local government receipts
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Corporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals _
Contributions for social insurance
Federal grants-in-aid
3.1
.8
17.0
1.2
2.5
3.2
.8
17.5
1.2
2.6
3.2
.8
17.8
1.3
2.7
3.3
.9
18.2
1.3
2.8
3.2
.8
17.6
1.2
2.6
3.3
.9
18.5
1.3
2.2
3.4
.9
18.8
1.3
3.4
3.5
.8
19.2
1.4
2.7
3.5
.7
19.5
1.4
2.9
3.4
.8
19.0
1.4
2.8
State and local government expenditures
24.7
25.4
25.5
26.0
25.4
26.7
26.7
27.3
27.9
27.1
22.5
3.0
.3
1.2
23.1
3.2
.3
1.2
23.2
3.1
.3
1.2
23.7
3.2
.3
1.2
23.2
3.1
.3
1.2
24.4
3.1
.3
1.2
24.3
3.2
.3
1.3
24.9
3.3
.3
1.3
25.7
3.2
.3
1.3
24.9
3.2
.3
1.3
-.1
-.1
.2
.4
.1
-.4
1.2
.3
.0
.3
Purchases of goods and services
Transfer payments to persons
Net interest paid
Less: Current surplus of government enterprises
Surplus or deficit (—) on income and product account.
1. Footnotes to tables III-l and III-2 are relevant to this table also.
GOVERNMENT
RECEIPTS AND
167
EXPENDITURES
Table III-3.—Government Receipts and Expenditures, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1948-51 1
[Billions of dollars]
1949
1948
1950
1951
Line
I
II
Year
IV
III
I
II
III
Year
IV
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
Year
IV
III
45.0
43.2
42.8
42.6
43.4
39.7
38.5
39.4
38.7
39.1
43.1
47.3
53.6
56.9
50.2
67.7
63.8
61.7
64.6
64.5
21.1
11.6
7.8
4.5
18.7
12.1
8.1
4.4
18.0
11.9
8.3
4.5
18.2
11.6
8.2
4.6
19.0
11.8
8.1
4.5
16.3
10.5
7.9
5.0
16.2
9.2
8.2
4.9
16.2
9.8
8.5
4.9
16.1
9.6
8.1
4.9
16.2
9.8
8.2
4.9
16.7
12.6
8.0
5.7
17.3
15.5
8.8
5.7
17.9
19.6
10.2
5.9
20.8
20.7
9.1
6.3
18.2
17.1
9.0
5.9
25.5
25.1
10.1
7.1
25.9
21.6
9.2
7.1
26.2
19.3
9.2
7.0
27.5
20.3
9.7
7.2
26.3
21.6
9.5
7.1
31.1
34.7
37.0
38.8
35.4
41.1
42.4
42.2
40.8
41.6
47.0
39.0
36.6
41.6
41.0
47.5
55.7
62.0
67.0
58.0
15.9
19.0
20.3
22.1
19.3
22.5
22.3
22.6
21.6
22.2
19.1
17.2
18.4
22.7
19.3
28.7
36.1
42.9
47.4
38.8
8.6
8.0
.6
9.0
7.8
1.2
9.7
7.4
2.3
9.5
7.4
2.2
9.2
7.7
1.6
11.5
8.5
3.0
12.9
8.9
4.0
12.0
9.0
3.1
11.6
8.7
2.9
12.0
8.8
3.2
20.1
17.2
2.9
13.7
10.3
3.4
10.2
7.8
2.4
10.7
8.2
2.5
13.7
10.9
2.8
10.4
8.3
2.1
11.0
8.7
2.3
10.8
8.8
2.0
11.1
8.8
2.3
10.8
8.7
2.1
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.2
2.6
2.5
q
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
A a
A c
A a
A
A
A
Q
Q
10
11
12
.6
.6
.7
.6
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.3
13.9
8.5
5.8
3.8
8.0
-1.4
-3.9
-2.8
-2.1
-2.5
-3.8
8.3
17.0
15.3
9.2
20.2
8.1
-.3
-2.4
6.4
14
17.0
17.7
18.1
18.4
17.8
19.0
19.2
19.9
20.1
19.6
20.6
21.3
21.8
22.0
21.4
23.2
23.3
23.3
24.1
23.5
15
2.1
.7
11.8
.7
1.8
2.1
.7
12.2
.7
1.9
2.2
.7
12.5
.7
2.1
2.2
.7
12.7
.7
2.1
2.1
.7
12.3
.7
2.0
2.4
.6
13.0
.8
2.1
2.5
.6
13.3
.8
2.1
2.5
.6
13.6
.8
2.4
2.5
.6
13.9
.8
2.3
2.5
.6
13.5
.8
2.2
2.6
.6
14.2
.9
2.4
2.6
.7
14.5
.9
2.5
2.7
.9
15.0
1.0
2.2
2.7
.9
15.1
1.0
2.3
2.6
.8
14.7
1.0
2.3
2.9
1.0
15.8
1.1
2.5
2.9
.9
15.8
1.1
2.6
3.0
.8
16.2
1.1
2.2
3.0
.8
16.6
1.1
2.6
2.9
.9
16.1
1.1
2.5
16
17
18
19
20
16.7
17.2
18.0
18.2
17.6
19.1
19.7
20.6
21.2
20.2
22.1
22.6
22.4
22.7
22.4
23.1
23.7
24.0
24.2
23.8
14.2
3.0
.3
.8
14.7
3.0
.3
.8
15.6
2.9
.3
.8
16.1
2.6
.3
.8
15.2
2.9
.3
.8
17.0
2.7
.3
.9
17.6
2.8
.3
.9
18.3
2.9
.3
.9
18.7
3.1
.3
.9
17.9
2.9
.3
.9
19.3
3.4
.3
.9
19.3
3.9
.3
.9
19.8
3.3
.3
1.0
20.3
3.1
.3
1.0
19.7
3.4
.3
1.0
20.9
3.0
.3
1.0
21.6
2.9
.3
1.1
21.9
2.9
.3
1.1
22.1
2.9
.3
1.1
21.7
2.9
.3
1.1
22
23
24
25
.4
.4
.2
.3
.3
-.1
-.5
-.7
-1.0
-.6
-1.4
-1.3
-.6
-.7
-1.0
.1
-.3
-.7
-.1
-.3
26
13
Table III-3.—Government Receipts and Expenditures, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1954-57 l
[Billions of dollars]
1954
III
1955
Year
I
II
III
Year
II
III
IV
78.7
83.2
82.7
83.3
80.6
82.5
1
35.2
21.4
11.6
10.5
37.1
21.9
12.1
12.1
37.3
20.7
12.5
12.2
37.7
21.0
12.3
12.4
37.5
19.0
12.0
12.2
37.4
20.7
12.2
12.2
2
3
4
5
74.7
71.9
77.7
80.1
79.9
80.8
79.6
6
47.5
45.7
49.1
49.7
49.7
49.1
49.4
7
14.9
13.7
1.2
15.5
13.9
1.6
14.9
13.5
1.4
16.0
14.6
1.4
17.8
16.0
1.8
17.1
15.9
1.2
18.6
17.2
1.4
17.3
15.9
1.5
8
9
10
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.9
3.8
4.3
4.4
4.1
11
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.6
12
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
13
3.8
7.7
7.3
5.8
6.5
6.8
5.5
2.6
3.4
-.2
2.9
14
33.0
31.7
33.9
34.6
35.4
35.9
34.9
37.1
37.4
38.3
38.5
37.8
15
4.3
1.0
22.8
1.7
3.1
4.2
1.0
21.8
1.7
3.0
4.7
1.1
23.4
1.7
3.0
4.8
1.0
23.9
1.8
3.2
4.9
1.0
24.3
1.8
3.4
5.0
1.1
24.6
1.9
3.4
4.8
1.0
24.0
1.8
3.3
5.2
1.1
25.0
1.9
3.9
5.3
1.0
25.3
1.9
3.8
5.4
1.0
25.6
2.0
4.3
5.5
.9
25.7
2.0
4.4
5.4
1.0
25.4
2.0
4.1
16
17
18
19
20
33.4
32.7
34.3
35.1
35.7
36.8
35.5
38.5
38.7
38.9
40.6
39.0
21
31.0
3.5
.5
1.7
30.3
3.5
.5
1.6
32.0
3.6
.5
1.7
32.7
3.6
.5
1.7
33.4
3.6
.5
1.8
34.4
3.7
.5
1.8
33.1
3.6
.5
1.7
35.9
3.8
.5
1.8
36.0
3.9
.5
1.8
36.1
4.0
.5
1.8
37.8
4.1
.6
1.8
36.3
4.0
.5
1.8
22
23
24
25
-.5
-.4
-.4
-1.0
-.6
-1.4
-1.3
-.6
-2.1
-1.2
26
II
63.2
63.3
63.1
65.5
63.8
69.3
71.7
74.3
75.7
72.8
77.5
29.1
15.7
10.3
8.1
29.0
16.1
10.1
8.0
29.1
16.3
9.7
8.1
29.4
17.7
10.1
8.2
29.2
16.5
10.1
8.1
30.6
19.3
10.5
8.9
31.3
19.9
11.3
9.2
31.9
21.7
11.2
9.6
32.3
22.6
11.2
9.6
31.5
20.9
11.0
9.3
34.5
21.7
11.1
10.2
73.8
68.7
68.2
67.8
69.6
68.5
68.1
68.8
70.1
68.9
69.8
52.9
47.1
45.9
44.4
47.5
45.1
44.7
45.3
46.1
45.3
44.8
12.2
10.8
1.4
12.7
11.6
1.2
13.2
11.8
1.4
14.0
12.5
1.5
13.0
11.6
1.4
14.2
12.2
1.9
14.0
12.5
1.5
13.7
12.5
1.2
14.1
12.7
1.4
14.0
12.5
1.5
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.1
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
5.0
.9
1.0
1.2
1.5
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
-10.6
-5.4
-5.1
-2.3
-5.8
.8
3.5
28.5
29.0
29,3
29.7
29.1
30.5
3.7
.7
19.7
1.5
2.9
3.8
.7
20.0
1.6
2.8
3.8
.8
20.2
1.6
2.9
3.9
.8
20.4
1.6
2.9
3.8
.8
20.1
1.6
2.9
4.1
.9
20.9
1.6
2.9
28.8
29.6
30.6
31.1
30.1
26.5
3.3
.4
1.4
27.3
33
.4
1.4
28.2
3.4
.4
1.4
28.7
3.4
.4
1.5
27.7
3.4
.4
1.4
-.3
-.7
-1.3
-1.4
-.9
IV
I
III
IV
77.9
78.4
81.2
35.1
21.1
11.4
10.3
35.4
20.8
11.6
10.7
35.9
22.0
12.4
10.9
70.6
72.6
44.5
46.1
14.3
13.0
1.3
15.0
13.5
1.5
3.0
3.0
4.9
5.0
1.8
1.6
5.5
5.6
31.2
32.3
4.2
.9
21.5
1.7
3.0
4.3
1.0
22.2
1.7
3.2
32.0
32.6
32.9
29.5
3.5
.4
1.5
30.2
3. 6
.5
1.6
30.5
3.5
.5
1.6
-1.5
-1.4
-.6
-.4
-1.0
II
Year
Year
Line
I
I
IV
1957
1956
168
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table III—4.—'Government Receipts and Expenditures,
Quarterly, 1946—47
[Billions of dollars]
1946
Line
II
Federal Government receipts..
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Corporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance
1947
III
IV
Year
II
III
IV
Year
11.6
8.1
9.7
9.8
39.2
14.2
9.2
10.0
9.9
43.3
7.1
1.2
1.8
1.5
2.9
1.8
1.9
1.4
3.9
2.5
2.1
1.3
3.3
3.1
2.1
1.3
17.2
8.6
7.9
5.5
8.2
2.6
1.9
1.5
3.5
2.5
1.8
1.4
4.3
2.6
2.0
1.2
3.7
3.0
2.2
1.0
19.6
10.7
7.9
5.1
11.1
9.5
8.2
8.2
37.0
7.7
7.6
8.1
7.7
31.1
Purchases of goods and services.
6.5
5.1
4.5
4.5
20.6
4.0
3.8
3.8
4.0
15.6
Transfer payments-.
To persons
Foreign (net)__.
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.0
9.5
9.2
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.1
9.0
8.9
Federal Government expenditures - -
Orants-in-aid to State and local governments
.1
.2
Net interest paid
Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises.
Surplus or deficit (—) on income and product account
State and local government receipts
.1
.1
.3
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.3
.4
1.1
.4
.4
.5
.5
1.7
1.1
1.0
4.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
4.2
.1
.1
1.6
.2
.3
.1
.0
1.5
1.6
2.2
6.4
1.7
1.9
2.2
3.5
.3
.2
2.5
.1
.4
3.1
13.0
1.6
.5
9.4
.5
1.1
11.1
3.6
.5
.1
2.5
.1
.4
3.1
3.8
.5
.1
2.6
.1
.4
3.9
.4
.1
2.8
.1
.5
3.5
3.7
4.1
.4
.2
2.9
.2
.5
4.1
14.4
2.8
.4
.1
.2
9.9
1.6
.3
.8
2.8
.5
.1
.2
3.2
.6
.I
.2
3.6
.6
.1
.2
12.7
2.2
.3
.8
1.9
.5
.2
.0
1.1
.2
1.0
1.0
.7
.5
-1.4
3.1
3.1
.5
.1
2.2
.1
.2
.4
.1
2.3
.1
\2
2.5
2.7
3.3
.4
.1
2.4
.1
.3
2.8
Purchases of goods and services
Transfer payments to persons
Net interest paid
Less: Current surplus of government enterprises.
2.2
.4
.1
.2
2.4
.4
.1
2
2.5
.4
.1
.2
Surplus or deficit (—) on income and product account.
.6
.5
.6
Personal tax and nontax receipts
C orporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals.
Contributions for social insurance
Federal gran ts-in-aid
State and local government expenditures.
12.2
15.5
1.8
.6
10.8
.6
1.7
1. Footnotes to tables III-l and III-2 are revelant to this table also.
Table III-4.—Government Receipts and Expenditures,
1952-53i
Quarterly,
[Billions of dollars]
1952
Line
II
Federal Government receiptsPersonal tax and nontax receipts
Corporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance
Federal Government expenditures
Purchases of goods and services
Transfer payments
To persons
Foreign (net)
Grants-in-aid to State and local governments
Net interest paid
Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises..
Surplus or deficit (—) on income and product account
State and local government receipts
Personal tax and nontax receipts
Corporate profits tax accruals
Indirect business tax and nontax accruals.
Contributions for social insurance
Federal grants-in-aid
State and local government expenditures
Purchases of goods and services
Transfer payments to persons
Net interest paid
Less: Current surplus of government enterprises
Surplus or deficit (—) on income and product account..
1. Footnotes to tables III-l and III-2 are relevant to this table also.
1953
Year
IV
III
Year
IV
III
20.4
15.6
16.2
15.5
67.7
21.5
16.6
17.5
14.7
70.3
11.2
4.6
2.4
2.2
6.4
4.6
2.6
1.9
7.3
4.5
2.7
1.8
6.2
4.9
2.8
1.6
31.2
18.6
10.5
7.4
11.7
4.9
2.7
2.3
6.3
5.5
2.8
2.0
7.9
5.0
2.8
1.7
6.5
4.0
2.8
1.4
32.4
19.4
11.2
16.6
17.9
18.6
18.5
71.6
19.2
20.0
19.3
19.3
12.1
13.1
13.8
13.8
52.9
14.3
14.9
14.5
14.4
2.5
2.2
2.6
2.1
2.7
2.3
2.5
2.3
10.4
8.9
1.5
2.9
2.4
2.6
2.3
2.8
2.5
.3
.5
.4
.2
2.9
2.4
.5
.3
.3
.6
.6
.7
.7
.7
.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
.3
.3
3.8
-2.3
6.2
6.3
.8
.2
4.4
.3
.6
6.4
.7
.2
4.5
.3
.7
.9
.2
4.2
.3
.6
5.9
5.3
.8
.1
.3
.3
.2
-2.4
.2
-3.0
6.6
2.6
4.7
1.0
-3.9
25.5
.5
.5
1.2
.2
2.4
3.2
.8
17.6
1.2
2.6
6.5
.9
.2
4.5
.3
.5
1.2
.2
-3.4
7.0
1.0
.2
4^7
.3
.8
.2
.1
-1.8
-4.6
6.9
7.0
.2
5.0
.3
.2
4.8
.3
.7
7.4
77.7
58.0
11.3
9.7
1.6
2.8
4.8
-7.4
27.4
3.4
.8
19.0
1.4
2.8
6.4
6.5
.7
.2
4.6
.3
.7
6.7
25.4
6.3
6.7
7.0
7.1
27.1
5.8
.8
.1
.3
5.9
.8
.1
.3
6.1
.8
.1
.3
23.2
3.1
.3
1.2
5.7
.8
.1
.3
6.2
.8
.1
.3
6.4
.8
.1
.3
6.6
.8
.1
24.9
3.2
.3
1.3
-.1
.0
.0
.1
.2
.3
-.1
-.1
.3
GOVERNMENT
RECEIPTS AND
169
EXPENDITURES
1
Table III-4.—Government Receipts and Expenditures, Quarterly, 1948-51
[Billions of dollars]
1949
1948
I
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
1951
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Line
Year
9.4
10.0
9.6
43.4
12.3
8.3
9.7
8.9
39.1
12.7
10.8
13.4
13.3
50.2
20.1
14.8
14.8
14.7
64.5
1
8.6
2.7
1.9
1.2
3.3
2.9
2.0
1.2
3.8
3.0
2.1
1.2
3.3
3.2
2.2
1.0
19.0
11.8
8.1
4.5
6.6
2.5
1.9
1.3
2.7
2.3
2.0
1.3
3.8
2.5
2.2
1.2
3.1
2.5
2.1
1.1
16.2
9.8
8.2
4.9
6.3
2.9
1.9
1.6
3.3
3.8
2.1
1.6
4.3
5.0
2.6
1.5
4.3
5.4
2.4
1.3
18.2
17.1
9.0
5.9
9.8
5.9
2.4
1.9
5.1
5.5
2.2
1.9
5.9
4.8
2.3
1.7
5.3
5.4
2.5
1.5
26.3
21.6
9.5
7.1
2
3
4
5
7.8
8.7
9.0
9.9
35.4
10.4
10.7
10.2
10.3
41.6
11.8
9.9
9.0
10.4
41.0
11.9
14.1
15.5
16.6
58.0
6
4.0
4.8
4.9
5.6
19.3
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
22.2
4.7
4.3
4.6
5.6
19.3
7.1
9.1
10.8
11.8
38.8
7
2.2
1.9
.3
2.3
1.8
.5
2.5
1.9
.6
9.2
7.7
1.6
2.9
2.2
3.2
2.2
1.0
2.9
2.1
.7
3.0
2.2
.7
12.0
8.8
3.2
5.1
4.4
.7
3.4
2.6
.9
2.4
1.9
.6
2.7
2.0
.6
13.7
10.9
2.8
2.6
2.1
.5
2.8
2.2
.6
2.7
2.2
.5
2.7
2.2
.5
10.8
8.7
2.1
8
9
10
11
JO JO
14.4
to ©to
II
1950
.4
.4
.5
.6
2.0
.5
.5
.6
.6
2.2
.6
.6
.6
.6
2.3
.6
.6
.6
.7
2.5
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
4.3
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
4.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
4.5
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
4.7
12
.1
.2
.1
.2
.6
.2
.2
.1
.2
.7
.3
.4
.2
.3
1.2
.4
.5
.2
.2
1.3
13
6.7
.6
1.1
-.4
8.0
1.9
-2.4
-.5
-1.5
-2.5
.9
.9
4.4
3.0
9.2
8.2
.7
-.7
-1.9
6.4
14
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.7
17.8
4.7
4.8
5.0
5.1
19.6
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
21.4
5.8
5.8
5.8
6.0
23.5
15
.6
.2
2.9
.2
.4
.6
.2
3.0
.2
.4
.5
.2
3.1
.2
.5
.5
.2
3.3
.2
.6
2.1
.7
12.3
.7
2.0
.7
.2
3.2
.2
.5
.7
.1
3.3
.2
.5
.6
.2
3.4
.2
.6
.5
.2
3.6
.2
.6
2.5
.6
13.5
.8
2.2
.8
.1
3.5
.2
.6
.6
.2
3.6
.2
.6
.6
.2
3.8
.2
.6
.6
.2
3.8
.3
.6
2.6
.8
14.7
1.0
2.3
.9
.2
3.8
.3
.6
.8
.2
4.0
.3
.6
.7
.2
4.1
.3
.6
.6
.2
4.2
.3
.7
2.9
.9
16.1
1.1
2.5
16
17
18
19
20
4.0
4.4
4.5
4.6
17.6
4.5
5.0
5.2
5.4
20.2
5.3
5.7
5.6
5.8
22 A
5.5
6.0
6.1
6.2
23.8
21
15.2
2.9
.3
.8
4.0
.7
.1
.2
4.5
.7
.1
.2
4.6
.7
.1
.2
4.8
.8
.1
.2
17.9
2.9
.3
.9
4.6
.9
.1
.2
4.9
1.0
.1
.2
5.0
.8
.1
.2
5.2
.8
.1
.2
19.7
3.4
.3
1.0
5.0
.8
.1
.3
5.5
.7
.1
.3
5.6
.7
.1
.3
5.7
.7
.1
.3
21.7
2.9
.3
1.1
22
23
24
25
.3
.2
-.2
-.2
-.4
— 6
-.1
-.5
1
-.3
-1.0
.3
-.2
-.2
-.1
-.3
26
3.4
.8
.1
.2
3.8
.8
.1
.2
3.9
.7
.1
.2
4.1
.6
.1
.2
.2
.0
.0
.0
Table III—4.—Government Receipts and Expenditures, Quarterly, 1954-57 *
[Billions of dollars]
1955
1954
III
IV
I
II
19.5
14.2
15.4
14.7
10.9
3.8
2.5
2.5
5.2
4.3
2.5
2.2
7.0
4.0
2.4
1.9
6.1
4.5
2.6
1.6
1956
I
II
63.8
18.3
18.6
18.3
17.5
29.2
16.5
10.1
8.1
8.7
4.7
2.5
2.4
8.1
5.3
2.8
2.4
7.9
5.3
2.8
2.4
6.8
5.6
2.9
2.1
Year
III
IV
1957
I
II
III
IV
72.8
20.0
20.6
19.4
18.7
31.5
20.9
11.0
9.3
9.3
5.3
2.7
2.8
9.5
5.5
2.8
2.8
8.9
5.1
2.9
2.6
7.5
5.5
3.2
2.4
Year
Line
I
II
III
IV
78.7
21.6
22.0
20.6
18.3
82.5
1
35.2
21.4
11.6
10.5
10.0
5.4
2.9
3.3
10.3
5.4
3.1
3.2
9.3
5.2
3.1
3.0
7.8
4.8
3.1
2.6
37.4
20.7
12.2
12.2
2
3
4
5
Year
Year
18.4
17.5
17.0
16.6
69.6
17.2
17.3
17.1
17.3
68.9
17.5
17.8
18.1
18.6
71.9
19.5
20.3
20.0
19.8
79.6
6
13.2
11.9
11.5
11.0
47.5
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.4
45.3
11.1
11.2
11.6
11.8
45.7
12.2
12.5
12.5
12.2
49.4
7
3.2
2.8
.4
3.3
2.9
.3
3.2
2.8
.3
3.3
3.0
.3
13.0
11.6
1.4
3.7
3.2
.5
3.6
3.2
.4
3.3
3.0
.3
3.4
3.1
.3
14.0
12.5
1.5
3.7
3.4
.3
3.8
3.4
.4
3.6
3.3
.3
3.8
3.4
.4
14.9
13.5
1.4
4.1
3.8
.4
4.5
4.1
.5
4.1
3.9
.3
4.5
4.2
.4
17.3
15.9
1.5
8
9
10
.7
.7
.8
.8
2.9
.7
.7
.9
.8
3.0
.7
.7
.9
.9
3.3
.9
.9
1.1
1.2
4.1
11
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
5.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.3
4.9
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
5.2
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
5.6
12
.2
.4
.3
.3
1.2
.4
.5
.4
.4
1.6
.6
.7
.7
.7
2.8
.8
1.0
.8
.5
3.1
13
1.1
-3.3
-1.6
-2.0
-5.8
1.2
1.4
1.2
.1
3.8
2.6
2.8
1.3
.1
6.8
2.1
1.7
.6
-1.5
2.9
14
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.5
29.1
7.5
7.9
8.1
8.3
31.7
8.4
8.7
8.9
9.0
34.9
9.1
9.5
9.6
9.7
37.8
15
1.0
.2
4.8
.4
.7
1.0
.2
5.0
.4
.7
.9
.2
5.1
.4
.8
.9
.2
5.2
.4
.8
3.8
.8
20.1
1.6
2.9
1.1
.2
5.1
.4
.7
1.2
.2
5.4
.4
.7
1.0
.2
5.6
.4
.9
1.0
.3
5.8
.4
.8
4.2
1.0
21.8
1.7
3.0
1.3
.3
5.7
.4
.7
1.3
.3
6.0
.4
.7
1.2
.2
6.1
.5
.9
1.1
.3
6.2
.5
.9
4.8
1.0
24.0
1.8
3.3
1.4
.3
6.1
.5
.9
1.5
.3
6.3
.5
.9
1.3
.2
6.4
.5
1.1
1.2
.2
6.6
.5
1.2
5.4
1.0
25.4
2.0
4.1
16
17
18
19
20
6.8
7.6
7.8
7.9
30.1
7.5
8.4
8.4
8.5
32.7
8.0
8.9
9.2
9.3
35.5
8.9
9.8
10.0
10.3
39.0
21
6.2
.8
.1
.3
7.0
.8
.1
.3
7.2
.8
.1
.4
7.3
.9
.1
.4
27.7
3.4
.4
1.4
6.9
.9
.1
.4
7.7
.9
.1
.4
7.8
.9
.1
.4
7.9
.9
.1
.4
30.3
3.5
.5
1.6
7.4
.9
.1
.4
8.3
.9
.1
.4
8.6
.9
.1
.4
8.7
.9
.1
.4
33.1
3.6
.5
1.7
8.3
1.0
.1
.4
9.2
1.0
.1
.4
9.3
1.0
.1
.5
9.6
1.0
.1
.5
36.3
4.0
.5
1.8
22
23
24
25
.2
-.3
-.5
-.4
-.9
.0
-.5
-.3
-.2
-1.0
.4
-.2
-.4
-.4
-.6
.2
-.4
-.4
-.7
-1.2
26
170
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table III-5.—Social Insurance Funds, 1946-57 l
[Millions of dollars]
1946
Line
1949
19.50
4,937
1,856
3,081
732
2,349
5, 907
2,448
3, 459
396
3,063
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
7,085
2,904
4,181
486
3,695
7,378
2,975
4,197
525
3,672
206
303
7,369
3,086
4,064
324
3,740
219
347
8,112
3,651
4,238
172
4,066
223
319
9,327
4,120
4,909
364
4,545
298
455
10, 511
4,420
5,623
609
5,014
468
475
12, 202
5,166
6,514
968
5,546
522
424
Line
Federal
Contributions for social insurance.
Employee contributions
Employer contributions
Government and government enterprises.
Private
Self-employed persons' contributions
Less: Transferred to general government
5,493
1,773
3.720
1, 654
2,066
244
114
175
226
338
Equals: Retained by social insurance funds.
Plus: Investment income
5, 249
4,994
667
4, 336
756
4,711
853
5, 569
884
6,697
887
7, 075
1,008
7,022
1,118
7,793
1,193
8,872
1,198
10,036
1,272
11, 778
1,342
Equals: Net receipts _ __
Less: Benefit payments.
5,857
2,348
5,661
2,123
5, 092
2,226
5,564
3,492
6, 453
6,100
7,584
4, 352
8,083
4,758
8,140
5,606
8,986
7, 463
10, 070
8,040
11, 308
8,937
13,120
11,177
Equals: Surplus or deficit (—)
3,509
3, 538
2, 866
2,072
353
3,232
3,325
2,534
1,523
2, 030
2,371
1,943
488
238
250
250
575
285
290
290
709
349
360
360
0
11
800
378
422
420
2
16
963
446
517
510
7
17
1,085
513
572
570
2
17
1,236
572
664
660
4
16
1,359
635
724
720
4
17
1,583
699
884
880
4
17
763
905
900
5
17
1,802
828
974
970
4
18
1,966
910
1,056
1,050
6
20
13
14
15
16
17
18
Equals: Retained by social insurance funds
Plus: Investment income
482
86
568
91
101
784
122
946
142
1,068
168
1,220
199
1,342
210
1,566
248
1,651
287
1,784
331
1,946
377
19
20
Equals: Net receipts
Less: Benefit payments..
568
260
659
297
799
326
906
356
1,088
1,236
466
1.419
543
1,552
609
1,814
700
1,938
743
2,115
854
2,323
964
21
22
362
473
690
770
943
1,114
1,195
1,261
1,359
23
1955
1956
1957
5,108
1,833
3, 275
840
2,435
4, 511
1,829
2, 682
342
2, 340
10
11
State and local
Contributions for social insurance
Employee contributions
Employer contributions
Government and government enterprises.
Private
Less: Transferred to general g o v e r n m e n t - .
Equals: Surplus or deficit (—)
1. For a listing of social insurance funds and for detail on employer and employee contributions and benefit payments, see tables III-6 and III-7.
Table III—6.-—Contributions for Social Insurance, 1946-57
[Millions of dollars]
Line
1949
1946
1947
1948
5,981
5,683
5,220
5,737
3,970
3,565
3,042
3,503
Old-age and survivors insurance
State unemployment insurance
Federal unemployment tax
Railroad retirement insurance
Railroad unemployment insurance
687
893
184
163
139
780
1,029
212
271
143
Federal civilian employee retirement systemsState and local employee retirement systems..
Cash sickness compensation funds
Government life insurance
241
250
241
290
Total contributions for social insurance.
Employer contributions
1,413
599
2,011
2,118
Old-age and survivors insurance.
State unemployment insurance..
Railroad retirement insurance. _.
687
44
163
780
33
271
Federal civilian employee retirement systemsState and local employee retirement systems._
C ash sickness compensation funds... \
Government life insurance
262
190
48
617
246
230
55
503
Employee contributions..
Self-employed persons' contributions.
Old-age and survivors insurance...
1951
1952
6,870
8,170
8,614
8,728
9,695
10,995
12,313
14,168
1
3,976
4,753
4,861
4,788
5,122
5,814
6,597
7,570
2
965
228
283
25
816
1,010
223
277
23
1,308
1,217
232
282
24
1,660
1,465
263
307
26
1,776
1,350
263
319
25
1,882
1,288
298
312
25
2,458
1,081
289
294
24
2,825
1,221
304
3,014
1,475
326
316
76
3, 653
1,505
338
304
97
3
4
5
6
7
244
360
0
273
420
2
459
316
510
7
316
570
2
144
326
660
4
138
188
720
4
71
42
880
4
50
144
900
5
393
970
4
23
599
1,050
6
18
8
9
10
11
2,178
2,234
2,894
3,417
3,547
3,721
4,350
4,883
5,248
6,076
18
283
816
11
277
13
282
1,660
13
307
1,776
14
319
1,882
14
312
2,458
13
294
2,825
14
3,014
16
316
3,653
17
304
13
14
15
350
330
48
402
371
395
51
474
391
465
48
533
427
520
52
439
431
580
55
447
430
640
59
456
513
700
63
460
600
760
68
474
673
840
70
519
16
17
18
19
206
219
223
298
468
522
20
206
219
223
298
468
522
21
275
280
414
1950
1953
1954
Line
GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
171
Table I I I - 7 . — G o v e r n m e n t Transfer
Payments
to Persons,
1946-57
l
[Millions of dollars]
1946
Line
Total government transfer payments to persons
Federal Government
Benefits from social insurance funds
Old-age and survivors insurance benefits
State unemployment insurance benefits
Railroad retirement insurance benefits
Railroad unemployment insurance benefits.
Federal civilian pensions
Government life insurance benefits
Direct relief
Military pension, disability, and retirement payments
Adjusted compensation benefits 2 . _ ._
Mustering-out payments to discharged servicemen and
terminal-leav^ benefits.
Readjustment, self-employment, and subsistence allowance to veterans.
Other 3
State and local governmentBenefits from social insurance funds
Government pensions
__
Cash sickness compensation
Direct relief
Special types of public assistance..
Genera] assistance
Other <
1948
1949
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Line
10,854
11,113
10,542
11,622
14,304
11,590
12,041
12,887
14,961
16,050
17,094
19,868
9,214
8,887
7,652
8,754
10,884
8,663
8,906
9, ii69
11,607
12,514
13,475
15,896
2,348
378
1,094
159
40
349
328
2,123
463
775
212
39
282
352
2,226
552
790
283
28
220
353
3.492
664
1,730
320
103
242
433
6,100
954
1,367
337
60
273
3,109
4,352
1,872
837
345
20
288
990
4,758
2,177
992
476
42
328
743
5, 606
2, 979
954
515
46
396
716
7,463
3,633
2,015
578
157
412
8,040
4,915
1,369
620
93
453
590
8, 93V
5, 652
1,400
674
70
553
588
11,177
7,321
1,755
738
93
648
622
1,693
18
2,131
1,181
6
2,297
3
431
!, 402
2
2,478
2
2,887
116
2,562
1
453
2, 747
1
167
2, 431
1
153
3,120
0
297
3,214
0
192
3,394
0
121
10
11
12
13
1,222
652
504
480
2,927
3,135
466
430
36
543
500
43
3,218
609
560
49
2. 345
2,055
290
2,267
2,075
192
2,297
2,129
168
677
194
295
2.780
244
1,640
:, 577
J, 605
2,284
411
395
!, 280
411
2,890
260
255
5
5,226
297
275
22
1,177
1,057
120
,478
.314
164
1,727
1,529
198
203
451
837
326
300
26
1. Classification differs from functional breakdown of transfer payments in table III-8.
2. For the period coyered in this table, consists almost entirely of cash redemptions by veterans of adjusted service bonds issued under the Adjusted Compensation Payment Act of
January 27, 1936.
3. Consists of military and naval insurance payments, payments to nonprofit institutions,
profits of military post exchanges and navy exchanges and ships' stores, payments under the
466759 0—59
1950
356
325
31
343
1,708
480
3,420
308
360
38
•
1
324
355
607
730
781
757
14
325
327
351
441
15
3,354
3,536
3,619
3S972
16
700
640
60
743
680
63
854
780
74
964
880
84
17
18
19
2,357
2,207
150
2,433
2,238
195
2,495
2,283
212
2, 563
2,367
196
2,766
2,556
210
20
21
22
252
221
298
202
242
498
462
Panama Canal Construction Annuity Act, enemy alien and civilian war assistance, payments to United States military and civilian prisoners of war, and Atomic Energy Commission
fellowships.
4. Consists of veterans' aid and bonuses, payments for the care of foster children in private
family homes, and payments to nonprofit institutions.
172
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table III-8.—Government Expenditures by Type of Function, 1952-57 l
1952
[Millions of dollars]
Federal
Line
1
Total
2
National defense
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Purchases
of goods
and services
Total
--
-
_ .__
Military services and foreign military assistance
Atomic energy development _..
.
._._._..
Stockpiling and defense facilities
Other
General government
General administration
General property and records management
Central personnel management and employment costs
Net interest paid
Other
-
Conduct of foreign affairs and informational activities
Foreign economic assistance and other transfers
Health, education, and welfare
...
Grants-in- Subsidies
Transfer aid to State less current
payments and local surplus of
and net in- govern-2
governments
terest paid
ment enterprises 3
15,113
2,635
1,011
25,447
23,190
46,408
1,074
70
-100
124
124
2
44,368
1,813
1,000
271
43,422
1,721
1,000
265
1,034
12
-100
36
36
3
40
52
50
50
4
6
38
38
5
6
6,512
1,474
5,078
3,059
2,261
769
769
1,212
1 212
212
212
283
244
244
725
11
11
13
1,478
6,043
464
3,745
1,837
15,951
13,545
2,406
16
56
109
3,145
3,143
2
17
7,937
6,529
1,045
363
2,826
2,826
7 907
6,529
1,045
333
30
18
19
452
452
2,374
2,374
1,860
945
1,860
945
584
331
584
331
27
2£
2S
3C
192
183
183
31
198
14
37
5,152
1,279
1,034
2,718
121
37
24
Veterans'services and benefits
.
Education, training, and other benefits
Compensation and pensions
Insurance
Hospitals and medical care
Administration and other services
Commerce and housing
Regulation of commerce and finance
41
42
43
TransDortation
Highways
Water
Air
45
Housing and community redevelopment
46
47
48
49
Public utilities
Transit
Electricitv
Water and gas
50
51
Postal services
Other
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
63
3,689
1,034
2,655
60
27
40
80
-3
f
\
1,338
1,277
80
2C
21
30
21
23
24
21
26
61
27
24
-51
-3
-3
o
40
44
125
2
232
32
39
1C
11
12
14
15
198
34
35
36
37
38
32
292
1,948
72
33
543
287
1,478
270
-
7
292
470
198
Labor and manpower
32
762
109
31
830
2,240
307
29
30
1
21
Education
Elementary and secondary
Higher..
__ . . .
..
Other
Social security and special welfare services._
Public assistance and relief
Unemployment benefits
Old age and retirement benefits
.
Other
Civilian safety
Police
Fire
Prisons
1,165
210
18
19
27
28
1,236
287
3,422
191
157
23
24
25
26
-51
328
4,729
322
22
Less: CurTransfer
rent sur- Line
payments
plus of
and net in- governterest paid ment enterprises
52,854
Public health and sanitation
20
21
Purchases
of goods
and services
47,452
17
)
- - I
Total 2
71,613
611
4,729
International affairs and finance
State and local
Agriculture and agricultural resources
Stabilization
of farm Drices and income
Financin°r farm ownership and utilities
Conservation ot agricultural resources
Other services
Natural resources
Conservation and development of resources
Recreational use of natural resources
Other
Less* Government sales
See footnotes at end of table.
_.
5,057
1,203
3,738
116
903
2,217
755
913
269
27
110
909
267
766
2,217
755
1,932
736
33
33
1,136
532
438
597
72
389
490
460
166
136
30
-64
9
8
818
9
184
4
2
498
14
14
6,218
364
364
49
4,475
4,394
19
4,616
4, 503
51
77
1,274
700
691
61
358
164
436
29
116
119
45
1,374
1,378
58
1,314
30
30
1,318
30
30
58
271
271
45
34
Zl
31
37
3?
62
62
-81
460
1,134
3S
4C
141
109
32
41
45
4[
44
572
112
41
-34
45
-77
o
640
63
193
384
674
18
270
386
4(
47
4£
4<
-68
-181
26
207
5(
51
529
343
341
49
798
20
32
184
5,084
698
184
255
32
242
341
2
341
-62
688
687
-62
380
307
1
380
307
2
55
2
K
5'
5v
5(
-1
5'
-1
5*
51
6(
61
GOVERNMENT
RECEIPTS AND
173
EXPENDITURES
1
Table III-8.—Government Expenditures by Type of Function, 1952-57 —Continued
1953
[Millions of dollars]
Federal
Line
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Purchases
of goods
and services
Total
Total
National defense ...
...
_.
.
Military services and foreign military assistance
Atomic energy development
Stockpiling and defense facilities
Other
_
.
. .
_ ._.
-
General government
General administration . . . . . .
. ...
General property and records management
Central personnel management and employment costs
Net interest paid
_ ..
...
Other
International affairs and
finance
.
.. . .
. .
Conduct of foreign affairs and informational activities
Foreign economic assistance and other transfers
Health, education, and welfare -
. . .
State and local
Grants-in- Subsidies
Transfer aid to State less current
payments and local surplus of
governand net in- govern-2
ment enterterest paid
ments
prises 3
57, 964
16,098
2,811
842
27,136
24,866
49,289
1,020
90
-98
139
139
2
47, 330
1,872
888
211'
46, 432
1 772
888
197
980
40
16
60
-98
44
53
44
53
42
42
3
4
5
6
6,585
1,326
5,301
-54
3,308
2,411
748
167
579
4,846
245
748
167
183
1,271
254
791
228
396
4,846
59
—54
1,271
254
1,363
325
95
2,050
465
1,583
238
1,812
236
229
1,583
7,002
494
4,541
1,970
17,203
14,725
2,478
45
82
3,192
3 187
5
17
8,912
7,453
1,080
379
8 873
7,453
1,080
340
39
18
19
20
21
2,913
2,913
482
482
2,431
2,431
22
23
24
25
26
1,998
1, 042
598
358
1,995
1,042
596
357
3
27
28
29
30
194
188
188
139
13
14
12
12
277
150
18
19
20
21
Education
Elementary and secondary
343
104
239
307
68
36
239
22
23
24
25
26
Social security and special welfare services
Public assistance and relief
Unemployment benefits
--...-.-..Old age and retirement benefits
Other
27
28
29
30
Civilian safety
Police
Fire
Prisons
31
32
Labor and manpower
Other
36
6,133
1,396
1,000
3,559
178
182
2
24
27
63
117
4,496
33
39
Veterans' services and benefits
Education, training, and other benefits
Compensation and pensions
Insurance
Hospitals and medical care
Administration and other services
Commerce and housing
40
Regulation of commerce and finance
41
42
43
44
Transportation
Highways
Water
Air
45
Housing and community redevelopment
46
47
48
49
Public utilities
Transit
Electricity
Water and gas
50
51
Postal services
Other
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
- .
Agriculture and agricultural resources
Stabilization of farm prices and income
Financing farm ownership and utilities
Conservation of agricultural resources
Other services
Natural resources
Conservation and development of resources
Recreational use of natural resources
Other
Less* Government sales
See footnotes at end of table.
. ..
3,543
1,273
934
37
7
609
325
37
8
9
10
11
12
95
13
2
14
15
/
1
1,455
1,394
16
39
1,000
3,496
61
o
24
27
220
5
26
5
4,810
1,098
3,653
59
627
2,369
736
851
227
26
548
2,369
736
53
847
225
4
2
1,681
562
568
44
44
1,149
596
402
151
478
59
305
114
560
537
23
-54
9
8
3
126
599
-57
17
14
4,179
3,599
3,667
43
292
177
3,328
29
111
131
46
1,421
1,445
66
1,357
30
34
1,381
30
34
66
314
314
46
1
2
_3
~
34
35
36
37
38
Less: CurTransfer
rent sur- Line
payments
plus of
and net in- governterest paid ment enterprises
77,715
Public health and sanitation
}
Purchases
of goods
and services
50,301
17
Other
Total 2
13
13
6,532
413
413
97
14
4,785
4,684
53
48
4,950
4,811
86
53
-71
280
7
18
-22
11
582
-71
534
111
339
14
181
31
32
126
33
34
35
36
37
38
126
5,301
551
2
1
1,231
39
165
127
33
5
41
42
43
44
390
110
45
758
43
264
451
751
25
286
440
46
47
48
49
-184
21
205
50
51
367
362
362
5
362
-90
679
684
-90
329
355
-5
329
355
40
5
52
5
53
54
55
56
5
57
5
58
59
60
61
174
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table III-8.—Government Expenditures by Type of Function, 1952-57 ! —Continued
1954
[Millions of dollars]
Federal
Line
Purchases
of goods
and services
Total
State and local
Grants-m- Subsidies
Transfer
id to State ess current
and local
surplus of
payments
governand net in- govern-2
ments
ment enterterest paid
3
Purchases
of goods
and services
Total 2
prises
Less: CurTransfer rent surpayments
plus of
and net in- governterest paid ment enterprises
Line
1
Total
69,570
47,548
17,975
2,882
1,165
30,053
27,706
2
National defense
42,113
41,189
916
97
-89
151
151
2
38,975
1,937
1,009
192
38,168
1,837
1,009
876
40
20
-89
60
50
58
50
58
3
4
43
43
6,726
1,289
5,468
22
-53
3,786
2,721
717
147
509
5 006
347
717
1 388
303
938
328
412
5,006
50
—53
1,388
303
1, 602
401
92
1,776
413
1,362
213
1,563
212
201
1,362
8,982
536
6,425
2,023
235
119
40
76
351
106
63
Military services and foreign military assistance __ Atomic energy development
Stockpiling and defense facilities
- _
Other
3
4
5
General government
7
General administration
General property and records management
Central personnel management and employment costs
Net interest paid
Other
8
9
10
11
12
International affairs and finance
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
Conduct of foreign affairs and informational activities. Foreign economic assistance and other transfers _ _ - .
Health, education, and welfare
Public health and sanitation.
. _ _ . _.
Education
Elementary and secondary
}
Higher... ...
.. .
Other
Social security and special welfare services
.. . .. Public assistance and relief
Unemployment benefits.- . .
Old age and retirement benefits
-.. . .. _ . .. _
Other
Civilian safety. _
Police
Fire
'
Prisons.
-- -. . .. __.__Labor and manpower
Other—
.- .
-. .
-Veterans' services and benefits
Education, training, and other benefits _
Compensation and pensions
. .. Insurance
Hospitals and medical care _
Administration and other services
Regulation of commerce and finance. _
41
42
43
44
Transportation
Highways. .
Water
Air
.
45
Housing and community redevelopment-
46
Public utilities
Transit
Electricity
Water and gas
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
.. . ...
Commerce and housing
40
47
48
49
- .
_
_ .
..
Postal services.
Other
____-.
_.
- _.
.
. .
_ __.
. . .
_ _.
. _
- -
... . .
. ...
Natural resources
Set footnotes at end of table.
43
43
8,096
1,439
2 172
4 279
206
213
2
29
31
66
145
22
- ..
. ...
___ _.
,
__
-
__ _
-
1,101
36
7
700
401
36
g
g
10
11
12
92
13
14
15
19,025
16,396
2,629
If
3, 461
3 455
o
17
10,075
8,517
45
392
10,030
8,517
1,166
347
3,112
3,112
536
536
2,576
2,576
2,178
1,133
652
393
2,176
1 133
651
392
2
204
199
199
30
-2
f
245
2,172
4,213
1,498
1,437
IS
IS
2C
21
45
2S
21
24
21
2t
61
-2
2
29
31
262
9
58
4 785
951
3,804
30
680
2,474
698
736
197
24
632
24
9
2"
2£
2i
3C
1
1
3]
35
2,474
12
18
18
3[
34
SI
3f
3'
3£
18
698
195
4
2
1,476
522
585
38
38
1,179
632
357
190
418
60
248
110
-86
10
732
1
1
245
6,385
1,408
1
369
585
572
176
13
109
67
-96
..
...
Conservation and development of resources
Recreational use of natural resources
Other
Less: Government sales
147
97
.
Agriculture and agricultural resources
Stabilization of farm prices and income
Financing farm ownership and utilities
Conservation of agricultural resources
Other services
308
17
175
3,755
367
-22
21
2,815
1,699
2,270
38
315
192
1,436
24
98
141
51
1,212
1,264
74
1,149
36
1,201
36
74
27
27
315
315
35
51
12
12
5,913
7,279
402
402
5, 536
5, 395
89
52
5,709
5,536
115
58
199
—40
—24
— 71
55
1,366
3^
173
141
26
6
41
45
331
132
4c
804
61
243
500
844
85
314
445
4(
4'
4$
4(
217
5(
5
346
-57
-184
33
1,065
390
383
383
7
383
— 126
758
764
-126
357
407
—6
357
407
834
14
217
4(
4£
44
7
55
7
K
5^
5*
5(
6
5'
5
5*
5(
6(
61
GOVERNMENT
Table III-8.—Government Expenditures by Type of Function,
RECEIPTS AND
175
EXPENDITURES
l
1952-57 —Continued
1955
[Millions of dollars]
Federal
Line
I
Total
National defense
3
4
5
. - - -
Military services and foreign military assistance„ _
\tomic energy development
Stockpiling and defense facilities __. - -__ _
Other
General government
g
q
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Grants-inSubsidies
Purchases
Transfer
aid to State less current
of goods
payments
and local
surplus of
governand serv- i n d net ingovernments 2
ices
terest paid
ment enterprises 3
Total
2
General administration
. _ . . .
General property and records management
Central personnel management and employment costs.__
Net interest paid
Other
International affairs and finance
Conduct of foreien affairs and informational activities . ..
Foreign economic assistance and other transfers.. _
Health education, and welfare
18,948
3,050
1,635
32,713
30,310
39,081
953
88
-76
151
151
2
37, 549
1,676
658
163
36, 722
1, 560
658
141
903
50
-76
54
65
54
65
32
32
3
4
5
p,
6,859
1,382
5,417
40
4,063
2,883
786
155
651
4, 920
347
786
155
198
1,466
356
962
243
453
4,920
44
"40
1,466
356
1,673
469
99
2,084
569
1,514
221
1,863
221
348
1,514
9,573
470
7,036
18
19
20
21
Fducation
Elementary and secondary
Higher
Other
365
22
23
24
25
26
Social security and special welfare services
Public assistance and relief
Unemployment benefits
Old age and retirement benefits
Other
27
28
29
30
Civilian safety
Police
Fire
Prisons
31
32
Labor and manpower
Other
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
Veterans' services and benefits
Education, training, and other benefits
Compensation and pensions
Insurance
HosDitals and medical care
Administration and other services
Commerce and housing
Regulation of commerce and finance
40
41
42
43
44
Transportation
Highways
Water
\ir
45
Housing and community redevelopment
46
47
48
49
Public utilities
Transit
Electricity
Water and eas
50
51
Postal services
Other
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
-
Agriculture and agricultural resources
Stabilization of farm prices and income
Financing farm ownership and utilities
Conservation of agricultural resources
Other services
Natural resources
Conservation and development of resources
Recreational use of natural resources
O+her
Less: Government sales
See footnotes at end of table.
_-
.. . ..
— _. .
-
Less: CurTransfer
rent sur- Line
payments
plus of
and net in- governterest paid ment enterprises
45,282
Public health and sanitation
|
Purchases
of goods
and services
40,046
17
---
Total 2
68,915
246
- - -
State and local
66
22
117
20
20
2,070
"
51
127
2
29
32
89"
36
6, 999
32
743
469
32
99
q
10
11
12
13
1
20,833
18,138
2,695
16
82
3, 689
3,683
6
17
248
11,360
9,636
1,314
410
11,317
9, 636
1,314
367
43
18
19
20
21
3, 209
3, 209
567
567
2,642
2,642
22
23
24
2t
26
2, 364
1, 238
693
433
2, 360
1,238
691
431
4
27
28
29
30
214
2U
211
104
12
-3
1,526
1,466
43
1, 462
5,537
60
-3
29
32
270
11
56
11
5,004
956
4,028
20
769
2,663
622
765
185
13
743
2,663
622
13
760
183
5
2
1,739
464
713
35
35
1,270
759
338
173
411
58
231
12?
4
12
496
-66
1,212
14
15
/
I
51
1 602
1
314
8,652
1,468
1, 462
5, 626
96
4,005
-3
92
562
12
12
6, 300
7,866
410
410
6,165
6.029
74
62
146
12
107
39
5, 951
5,864
39
48
-8
34
73
1
-108
180
471
—47
— 168
67
33
34
35
36
37
38
1,251
407
401
401
6
401
1,566
39
40
41
42
43
44
182
148
45
1,042
80
257
705
969
79
365
525
46
47
48
49
235
50
51
1,621
2,367
36
298
231
1,316
24
110
171
60
1,036
1,097
79
-140
855
859
963
39
34
1,024
39
34
79
-140
381
478
381
478
358
358
1,051
12
188
92
214
165
35
14
2,932
60
31
32
92
713
701
25
-19
2
2
6
52
6
53
54
55
56
4
57
4
58
59
60
61
176
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table III-8.—Government Expenditures by Type of Function, 1952-57 1 —Continued
1956
[Millions of dollars]
Federal
Line
1
Total.
2
National defense
3
4
5
7
g
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
..
.
.
..
Military services and foreign military assistance
Atomic energy development. . .
Stockpiling and defense facilities . . . . .
Other
General government
.
.
International affairs and
finance
......
..
._
Conduct of foreign affairs and informational activities
Foreign economic assistance and other transfers
22
23
24
25
26
Social security and special welfare services . . . .
Public assistance and relief- . . .
_ .. . .
Unemployment benefits
Old age and retirement benefits
Other
----.
27
28
29
30
Civilian safety.
Police
Fire
Prisons
31
32
Labor and manpower
Other
.
. .
..
.-
- -
.. -
...
Veterans'services and benefits
.. ..
Education, training, and other benefits
Compensation and pensions
Insurance
Hospitals and medical care
Administration and other services
.
......
..
Commerce and housing
Regulation of commerce and finance
41
42
43
44
Transportation
Highways
Water
Air. .
45
Housing and community redevelopment.. - - . . . . . . . -
46
47
48
49
Public utilities
Transit
Electricity
Water and gas
50
51
Postal services
Other
61
A1
_
Agriculture and agricultural resources
Stabilization of farm prices and income
Financing farm ownership and utilities
Conservation of aGrriculrural resources
Other services
Natural resources
Conservation and development of resources
Recreational use of natural resources
Other
Less * Government sales
See footnotes at end of table.
76
5,828
553
5,238
37
2,068
611
1,420
242
242
1,826
369
.
. . . .
]
837
328
350
206
115
294
59
56
56
9.823
1,539
1,470
6,452
362
411
I
30
34
124
286
23
23
1, 420
Purchases
of goods
and services
Total 2
Less: CurTransfer
rent sur- Line
payments
plus of
and net in- governterest paid ment enterprises
2,789
35,499
33,117
-59
177
177
2
-59
61
82
61
82
34
34
3
4
5
6
-57
4,441
3,125
1,586
344
1.064
-57
1,586
344
1,873
507
131
22
J18
10,833
40
58
59
60
891
50
812
189
421
Education
Elementary and secondary
Higher
...
Other
57
38,031
1.672
458
169
-
812
189
974
5,238
121
18
19
20
21
53
54
55
56
98
1,540
Public health and sanitation
52
3,257
941
7,334
17
39
20,133
40,330
.
Health, education, and welfare.
34
35
36
37
38
45,721
41,310
38, 863
1,798
458
191
General administration
General property and records management.. . . .
Central personnel management and employment costs
Net interest paid
Other
Grants-in- Subsidies
Transfer aid to State less current
payments and local surplus of
governand net in- governments 2
ment enterterest paid
prises 3
71,900
.
__
16
33
Purchases
of goods
and services
Total
State and local
4,126
1,361
854
507
1,744
1
45
7
45
g
9
10
11
12
131
37
13
37
14
15
7,829
2,171
22,598
19,867
2,731
16
31
91
4,182
4,177
5
17
235
12, 398
10,403
1,507
488
12,346
10,403
1, 507
436
52
18
19
20
21
3,252
3,252
580
580
2,672
2,672
22
23
24
25
26
2,540
1,336
735
469
2,538
1,336
734
468
2
27
28
29
30
231
226
226
40
11
-4
f
1
235
7,798
1,614
1,538
52
1,470
6,328
76
-4
30
34
292
10
61
10
5,104
973
4,115
16
805
2,701
625
797
176
8
789
2, 701
625
8
791
174
6
2
2,186
595
791
39
39
1,464
827
448
189
490
54
303
133
26
10
-4
791
773
183
18
145
38
16
11
11
6,813
8,508
453
453
6,461
6,333
52
76
6,728
6,533
95
100
39
40
267
200
43
24
41
42
43
44
161
161
45
1,024
71
368
585
46
47
48
49
-184
59
243
50
51
431
426
426
5
426
-74
1,556
62
337
252
-403
31
117
181
71
1,189
1,240
87
-138
999
1,003
1,100
54
35
1,151
54
35
87
-138
490
513
-4
490
513
331
331
1,959
31
220
1,695
1,107
107
300
700
2,207
2,210
33
34
35
36
37
38
0
30
26
71
29
83
36
-68
115
632
25
602
—1
31
32
29
29
800
1
1
5
52
5
53
54
6fi
56
4
57
4
58
58
6C
61
GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
177
Table I I I - 8 . — G o v e r n m e n t Expenditures
by Type of Function,
1
1952-57
—Continued
1957
[Millions of dollars]
State and local
Federal
Line
Purchases
of goods
a n d services
Total
Grants-in- Subsidies
Transfer aid to State less current
payments and local surplus of
and net in- govern-2
governterest paid
ments
ment enterprises 3
Total 2
Purchases
of goods
and services
Less: CurTransfer
rent sur- Line
payments
plus of
and net in- governterest paid ment enterprises
1
Total
79,582
49,381
22,979
4,087
2
National defense
45,371
44,347
989
104
42,419
2,183
567
202
41, 574
2,024
567
182
914
75
84
7,664
1,378
6,321
809
202
960
5,632
61
809
202
312
55
648
5,632
41
2,069
617
1,451
1
13
300
1,769
300
317
1,451
1
14
15
13,135
722
9,955
2,462
426
265
46
115
374
108
266
329
63
266
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Military services and foreign military assistance
Atomic energy development
Stockpiling and defense, facilities
Other..
General government
. _ __.._._
. .
General administration. . . .
General property and records management..
Central personnel management and employment costs
Net interest paid.
.._
_ _ _ _ . .
Other
International affairs a n d
finance..
. . . . . _ . . . . _ . _
Health, education, and welfare
17
Public health and sanitation
18
19
22
23
24
25
26
Education
Elementary and secondary
Higher.. .
..
_.
_.
Other
Social security and special welfare services
Public assistance and relief
Unemployment benefits.. ..
.. ..
Old age and retirement benefits
Other
.
. .
..
27
28
29
30
Civilian safety
Police
Fire
Prisons .
31
32
Labor and manpower
Other...
.
-
21
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
. -
Education, training, and other benefits
Compensation and pensions
Insurance
.
_. . . . . . .
...
Hospitals and medical care
Administration and other services
Transportation
Highways
Water
45
Housing and community redevelopment
46
47
48
49
Public utilities
Transit
Electricity
50
51
Postal services
Other..
58
59
60
61
. ._
Commerce and housing
41
42
43
44
57
_ _
Veterans' services and benefits
Regulation of commerce and finance
53
54
55
56
)
. .
40
52
. . _
Conduct of foreign affairs and informational activities
Foreign economic assistance and other transfers
. ...
_ ._
_
. .
Air
Water a n d gas .
.
__.
.
45
260
2
23
27
161
97
Stabilization of farm prices a n d i n c o m e
F i n a n c i n g farm o w n e r s h i p a n d utilities
C o n s e r v a t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s o u r c e s
.__
Other services
Natural resources
Conservation and development of resources
Recreational use of natural resources
Other
-69
204
2
-69
69
97
69
97
38
38
3
4
5
6
-58
4,870
3,404
1, 735
367
1,156
—58
1, 735
367
2,080
542
146
9,909
1,848
8,061
964
542
40
7
40
8
9
10
11
12
146
21,745
2,945
16
4, 590
4,584
6
17
13,562
11,320
1»712
530
13, 506
11,320
1,712
474
56
18
19
56
21
3, 51(5
3,516
635
635
2,881
2,881
22
23
24
25
26
2, 774
1, 454
801
519
2,772
1,454
800
518
2
27
28
29
30
250
248
248
8
68
10
-4
f
I
1,831
1 £24
107
—4
23
27
51
11
5,277
1,006
4,263
769
2,841
662
819
186
9
760
2,841
662
813
184
6
2
2,545
506
1,309
47
47
1,847
1 314
258
275
362
35
119
208
18
9
—4
1,309
1 279
30
730
176
139
37
9
1
1
31
32
58
33
34
35
36
37
38
58
58
10
10
7,587
9,350
506
506
7,117
6,973
58
86
7,398
7 187
101
110
1,763
40
281
214
43
24
41
42
43
44
26
176
150
45
1,206
117
327
762
1,073
74
386
613
46
47
48
49
— 195
64
259
5C
51
474
469
469
5
469
47
41
2,602
-208
_.-._.
1,940
46
345
271
-544
31
117
188
83
._
1,341
1,435
98
-192
1,116
1,118
1,236
63
42
1,330
63
42
98
-192
5.59
559
—2
559
559
422
422
545
83
2,727
2,484
15
228
39
133
43
-59
149
592
41
_._.__.
1,506
1,805
24,690
301
11
1. This classification of expenditures by function follows generally similar classifications
published for the Federal Government in the Budget of the United States Government for the
Fiscal Year Ending June 30,1959, and for State and local governments, in the governmental
finances reports of the Bureau of the Census. The principal classification difference occurs
in Federal expenditures. National defense in this table differs from Major National Security
in the Budget by the inclusion (in line 6) of expenditures of the National Advisory Committee
for Aeronautics, Selective Service System, and Federal Civil Defense Administration, and
by the exclusion of expenditures for defense support under the mutual defense assistance
36,300
204
_ . . . - -
..
Agriculture and agricultural resources
Less: Government sales
45
12,000
1,726
1,848
8,222
204
23
1
39,009
20
23
4,514
3,135
5
52
5
53
54
55
56
2
57
2
5S
59
6C
61
program. The latter are included in this table in foreign economic assistance and other
foreign transfers (line 15).
2. Federal grants-in-aid are reflected in both Federal and State and local expenditures. If
all government expenditures are combined these grants-in-aid should be deducted from the
total to avoid duplication.
3. A negative entry in this column indicates a current surplus of government enterprises,
or an excess of such surplus over subsidy payments where both types of entry occur for the
same function.
178
NATIONAL
INCOME
AND
PRODUCT
TABLES
Table III—9.—Object Breakdown of Government Purchases of Goods and Services, Selected Functions, 1952—57
[Millions of dollars]
1952
Line
1953
1954
1955
1956
1952
Line
43,422
46,432
38,168
36,722
38,031
41,574
Federal Goverment—Continued
Stockpiling and defense facilities.
Net acquisition of strategic
materials
15,158
14,934
14, 302
14,620
14,778
14, 822
Defense production facilities i.
10,472
4,686
10,337
4,597
9,951
4, 351
9,778
4,842
9, 668
5, 110
9, 634
1,388
1,307
1,030
1,313
1,395
Federal Government
Military services and foreign
military assistance
Wages and salariesMilitary _
Civilian..
Construction
26, 876
30, 191
22, 836
20, 789
21,858
19, 070
Military equipment
Other goods and services. 7,806
18, 789
11,402
15, 634
7,202
13, 290
7, 499
14, 429
7,429
Other purchases..
1954
1955
1956
1957
1,000
888
1,009
658
458
992
739
815
508
318
315
8
149
194
150
140
252
State and local government
5, 188
Education
1, 322
25, 430
16, 235
9,195
1. Includes only expenditures made by nondefense agencies, principally the General
Services Administration. Expenditures for defense production facilities made by the Department of Defense are included in lines 5, 7, and 8.
2. Includes amounts spent for atomic research in State institutions of higher education
Table III—10.—Relation of Federal Government
1953
2
7,957
8,926
10,088
11,382
12,428
13,603
Wages and salaries 3
5,314
5,812
6,434
6,987
7,831
8,837
Construction
1,601
1,705
2,125
2,436
2,548
2,817
Other purchases
1,042
1,409
1,529
1,959
2,049
1,949
under contractual agreements with the Federal Government. These amounts are shown
separately in line 4 of Table III-8.
3. Differs from public education wages and salaries shown in Table VI-2 by the inclusion
of public library payrolls.
Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income Accounts to the Budget, 1952—57
[Billions of dollars]
Calendar years
Fiscal years
Line
1952
1953
1954
1956
1956
second
half
1957
1957
Line
Second
half
First
half
Receipts
Budget receipts
Less: Intragovernmental transactions
Receipts from exercise of monetary authority
61.4
2. 1
.1
64.8
2.2
.1
Plus: Trust fund receipts
Equals: Federal receipts from the public (consolidated cash receipts)
68.0
71.5
64.7
2.1
.1
60.4
68.2
71.0
28.1
43.0
29.3
2.1
.0
2.7
.0
3.2
.0
1.6
.0
1.7
.0
9.2
9.5
11.7
14.4
6.2
8.2
1.4
.0
7.2
71.6
67.8
77.1
82.1
32.6
49.5
35.1
.2
.2
.2
.2
.7
.0
-.4
-.3
.1
.2
.2
.3
5.2
.1
.2
-5.1
.1
.1
.1
3.9
-.2
.1
Less: Adjustment for agency coverage:
District of Columbia revenues
Plus: Adjustments for netting and consolidation:
Federal Government contributions to:
E mployee retirement funds
Veterans' life insurance funds
Federal Government employee contributions to employee retirement
funds.
Interest, dividends, and other earnings. _
-.4
Adjustments for timing:
Excess of taxes included in national income accounts over cash collections:
Personal
Corporate profits
Other
Miscellaneous
.2
-1.9
.1
-.7
.2
.5
.1
-.4
11
12
13
14
.6
-1.6
.1
.0
-4.1
-.3
-.3
.2
.3
.1
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.4
.3
.4
.6
.3
.5
.6
.3
.4
.4
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
15
16
17
65.5
69.9
65.9
67.0
76.4
81.7
38.1
43.6
18
Less: Adjustments for capital transactions:
Realization upon loans and investments
Proceeds from sale of government property
Recoveries and refunds
Equals: Receipts—national income accounts
GOVERNMENT
Table III—10.—Relation of Federal Government
RECEIPTS AND
179
EXPENDITURES
Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income Accounts to the Budget, 1952—57—Con.
[Billions of dollars]
Calendar years
Fiscal years
Lino
1953
19£2
1951
1955
1956
Line
1957
1956
second
half
1957
First
half
Second
half
Expenditures
Budget expenditures ..
20
21
22
23
Less: Intergovernmental transactions
Accrued interest and other noncash expenditures (net)
Plus* Trust fund expenditures
Government-sponsored enterprise expenditures (net)
_. _
24
Equals: Federal payments to the public (consolidated cash expenditures)
64.6
66.5
69.4
33.8
35.6
36.1
19
2. 1
.6
8.5
1
2.7
9
3.2
—.8
1.6
-.9
1.7
.1
1.4
.1
20
21
9.4
3
13.0
5.3
2
7.7
— 2
7.1
3
22
23
71.9
70.5
72.6
80.0
38.6
41.4
41.9
24
.1
.2
.2
.2
.2
.1
.1
.1
25
.3
.0
.0
.2
.5
.3
.0
.7
.3
.3
.1
.6
.0
.3
.0
.3
26
©CO
19
7
—.8
-.6
o
-.3
-.6
29
65.4
74.3
67.8
2. 1
.3
2.2
53
— 3
5. 3
— 1
2.1
6
7.2
— 4
68.0
76.8
.1
o
Less: Adjustment foi agency coverage:
25
District of Columbia expenditures
Plus: Adjustments for netting and consolidation:
26
27
28
Federal Government contributions to:
Employee retirement funds.
_.
_.
.
. . . . . .
Veterans' life insurance funds
Federal Government employee contributions to employee retirement
29
Interest received and proceeds of government sales
.3
.1
.4
.1
.4
.1
.4
.1
.5
_
27
28
-.7
—.9
—.6
.8
.0
.7
.2
.6
1.7
.5
-1.0
.4
-.4
.6
-.2
.9
.2
-.3
-.4
.8
.0
30
31
-.4
.0
-.2
.7
-. 1
-. 1
-.1
.4
.3
-1.3
-.8
-1.0
-1.1
-.4
.4
-.6
-.3
-.6
32
33
Adjustments for timing:
30
31
32
33
Accrued interest on saving bonds and Treasury bills - . _.
Commodity Credit Corporation guaranteed non-recourse loans (net
change).
Increase in clearing account
. . .
Miscellaneous
_._----..-_--. .
_
.-.
Less: Adjustments for capital transactions:
34
35
36
37
38
39
Loans and other adjustments:
Federal National Mortgage Association secondary market operations.
Other .
.
.
Purchase of land and existing assets. . . . _. .
__..
Trust and deposit fund expenditures
Redemption of International Monetary F u n d notes
- _..
(l)
(0
Equals: Expenditures—national income accounts
-.1
0)
1.8
1.7
.1
.1
.0
.1
-.2
.0
66.5
76.3
-.6
1.7
.1
1.0
.1
.8
.3
34
1.1
.4
.6
-.2
.7
35
36
.1
-.2
-. 1
.0
.5
-.2
.0
.8
-.2
.0
.5
.0
.3
.7
.0
.2
.0
.0
.4
.3
74.5
68.1
69.7
76.5
36.7
39.8
39.8
37
38
39
1. Included in line 35 for years prior to fiscal year 1955.
Table III-ll.—Relation of State and Local Government Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income Accounts to Bureau of Census
Data, Fiscal Years 1952-56 l
[Billions of dollars]
1952
Line
1953
1954
1955
1956
Line
Total revenue from own sources—Cen-
28.4
30.5
32.4
34.5
Less: Excess of tax collections over accruals
.1
.0
.1
-.1
-.1
3
Receipts of utilities and liquor stores
3. 1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4
Receipts of other commercial activities
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
Interest received
Sale of existing assets and capital
gains
Plus: Government contributions to selfadministered insurance funds
Federal grants-in-aid
10
Equals: Total receipts-"national income
accounts
1954
1955
1956
1.6
.4
.1
.5
1.6
.5
.1
.6
1.5
.5
.1
.6
1.3
.6
.1
.7
2
11
Total direct expenditures—Census
30.9
32.9
36.6
40.4
43.2
12
Less: Operating expenditures and current
surplus of utilities and liquor
stores
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
13
Operating expenditures and current
surplus of other commercial activities
1.3
1.7
1.9
14
Unemployment compensation benefits
1.0
1.8
1.3
15
Interest received
.4
16
Purchases of land and existing
structures
17
18
38.4
2
Receipts of unemployment compensation funds
1953
Expenditures
Receipts
1
1952
1.5
.7
.1
.7
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.1
24.8
27.1
28.7
30.8
34.2
1.5
.5
.5
.5
.5
.7
Plus: Government contributions to selfadministered insurance funds
.5
.6
.6
Equals: Total expenditures—national income accounts
25.1
26.9
29.5
.7
1.2
.7
32.4
35.0
1. Reconciliation items are derived mainly from publications of the Governments Division of the Bureau of the Census; Federal grants-in-aid aro from Treasury and Bureau of the Budget
sources.
2. Total less intergovernmental.
IV. Foreign Transactions
PAGE
IV-1.
Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts, 1946-57
IV-2.
Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-57
IV-3.
Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts, Quarterly, 1946-57
IV-4.
Relation of Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts to
Balance of Payments, 1946-57
182
182
182
184
IV-5.
Balance of Payments on Goods, Services, and Unilateral Transfers, 1946-57
184
IV-6.
United States Government Net Foreign Assistance, 1946-57
185
182
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table IV-1.—Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts, 1946—57
[Millions of dollars]
Line
Receipts from abroad...
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
17,857
17,431
16,600
17,476
19,381
22,955
25,954
16, 600
17,476
19,381
22, 955
25, 954
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
12,792
17,900
14,505
13,958
13,098
Line
Exports of goods and services_
12, 792
17,900
14,505
13, 958
13,098
17,857
17, 431
Payments to abroad . .
12,792
17,900
14,505
13,958
13,098
17,857
17,431
16,600
17,476
19,381
22,955
25,954
122
8,917
11,015
1,561
1,929
10,198
3,238
522
12,511
2,791
- 2 , 204
15, 481
2,147
229
16, 113
1,478
-160
17,034
1,583
-2,017
16,515
1,362
-401
18,287
1,514
-420
20,159
1,420
1, 376
21,041
1, 451
3, 462
Imports of goods and services
Net transfer payments by Government.
Net foreign investment
Table IV-2.—Foreign Transactions
7,876
321
4, 595
in the National Income Accounts, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-47
[Billions of dollars)
1946
1947
Line
II
I
Receipts from abroad
Exports of goods and services
Payments to abroad
IV
Year
II
Year
IV
III
11.1
12.4
14.4
13.2
12.8
17.4
18.4
18.5
17.2
17.9
11.1
12.4
14.4
13.2
12.8
17.4
18.4
18.5
17.2
17.9
11.1
12.4
14.4
13.2
12.8
17.4
18.4
18.5
17.2
17.9
7.3
.5
3.3
7.9
.2
4.3
7.9
.3
6.2
8.3
.4
4.5
7.9
.3
4.6
8.5
.0
9.0
9.0
.1
9.3
8.6
.2
9.7
9.3
.2
7.7
.1
8.9
Imports of goods and services
Net transfer payments by Government
Net foreign investment
Table IV-2.—Foreign Transactions
III
in the National Income Accounts, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1952-53
[Billions of dollars]
1953
1952
Line
II
I
Receipts from abroad
Exports of goods and services
III
19.0
18.3
19.0
18.3
19.0
18.3
15.9
1.1
2.0
15.5
1.9
.9
Payments to abroad
Imports of goods and services
Net transfer payments by Government
Net foreign investment
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
16.4
17.4
16.5
16.5
16.7
16.7
16.6
16.0
16.4
17.4
16.5
16.5
16.7
16.7
16.6
16.0
16.4
17.4
16.5
16.5
16.7
16.7
16.6
17.1
1.2
-1.9
16.1
1.5
-.2
16.7
1.8
-2.1
17.2
1.9
-2.6
17.5
1.2
-2.0
16.7
1.4
-1.4
17.0
1.6
-2.0
16.0
16.0
1.7
-1.7
Table IV-3.—Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts, Quarterly, 1946-47
[Billions of dollars]
1947
1946
Line
I
Receipts from abroad
II
2.7
Exports of goods and services
Payments to abroad
Imports of goods and services
Net transfer payments by Government
Net foreign investment
III
3.3
Year
IV
3.4
3.5
12.8
I
II
4.3
III
Year
IV
4.8
4.3
4.5
17.9
4.5
17.9
2.7
3.3
3.4
3.5
12.8
4.3
4.8
4.3
2.7
3.3
3.4
3.5
12.8
4.3
4.8
4.3
4.5
17.9
1.9
.1
1.3
2.0
.1
1.3
2.1
.1
1.2
7.9
.3
4.6
2.1
.0
2.2
2.2
.0
2.6
2.1
.0
2.2
2.4
.1
2.0
8.9
.1
8.9
1.9
.1
.7
Table IV—3.—Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts, Quarterly, 1952—53
[Billions of dollars]
I
1
2
Receipts from abroad
Exports of goods and services
3
Payments to abroad .. . _
4
Imports of goods and services
Net transfer payments by Government
Net foreign investment
5
6
1953
1952
Line
.
. .
II
III
IV
Year
II
I
III
IV
Year
4.8
4.5
3.8
4.2
17.4
4.0
4.3
4.0
4.3
16.6
4.8
4.5
3.8
4.2
17.4
4.0
4.3
4.0
4.3
16.6
4.8
4.5
3.8
4.2
17.4
4.0
4.3
4.0
4.3
16.6
4.0
.3
.6
3.9
.5
.1
4.0
.4
-.6
4.2
.2
-.2
16.1
1.5
— .2
4.1
.5
-.6
4.4
.5
-.6
4.4
.3
-.7
4.1
.3
-.1
17.0
1.6
-2.0
183
FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS
Table IV-2.—Foreign Transactions
in the National Income Accounts, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1948-51
[Billions of dollars]
1949
1948
I
II
III
Year
IV
I
11
III
1951
1950
Year
IV
I
III
II
Year
IV
I
II
III
IV
Year
Line
15.5
14.2
14.2
14.1
14.5
15.2
15.0
13.6
12.1
14.0
12.5
12.4
13.4
14.2
13.1
15.9
17.7
18.9
18.9
17.9
1
15.5
14.2
14.2
14.1
14.5
15.2
15.0
13.6
42.1
14.0
12.5
12.4
13.4
14.2
13.1
15.9
17.7
18.9
18.9
17.9
2
15.5
14.2
14.2
14.1
14.5
15.2
15.0
13.6
12.1
14.0
12.5
12.4
13.4
14.2
13.1
15.9
17.7
18.9
18.9
17.9
3
10.7
.6
4.2
10.9
1.2
2.1
11.5
2.3
.5
11.0
2.2
.9
11.0
1.6
1.9
10.6
3.0
1.6
10.3
4.0
.6
9.9
3.1
.7
10.0
2.9
-.8
10.2
3.2
.5
10.5
2.9
-.9
11.3
3.4
-2.3
14.0
2.4
-3.0
14.4
2.5
-2.7
12.5
2.8
-2.2
16.1
2.1
-2.3
16.0
2.3
-.6
15.0
2.0
1.9
14.8
2.3
1.9
15.5
2.1
.2
4
5
6
Table IV—2.—Foreign Transactions
in the National Income Accounts, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly
Totals at Annual Rates, 1954—57
[Billions of dollars]
1954
II
I
III
1955
IV
Year
I
II
III
1957
1956
IV
Year
I
III
II
IV
Year
II
I
III
IV
Year
Line
16.0
17.9
17.3
18.7
17.5
18.7
18.6
20.0
20.3
19.4
20.9
22.5
23.6
24.8
23.0
26.4
26.6
26.0
24.9
26.0
1
16.0
17.9
T7.3
18.7
17.5
18.7
18.6
20.0
20.3
19.4
20.9
22.5
23.6
24.8
23.0
26.4
26.6
26.0
24.9
26.0
2
16.0
17.9
17.3
18.7
17.5
18.7
18.6
20.0
20.3
19.4
20.9
22.5
23.6
24.8
23.0
26.4
26.6
26.0
24.9
26.0
3
15.7
1.4
-1.0
17.1
1.2
-.'/
16.8
1.4
-.9
16.5
1.5
.7
16.5
1.4
-.4
17.2
1.9
-.5
17.9
1.5
-.8
18.7
1.2
.1
19.4
1.4
-.5
18.3
1.5
-.4
20.1
1.3
19.8
1.5
1.3
20.4
1.2
2.0
20.4
1.6
2.8
20.2
1.4
1.4
20.8
1.4
4.2
20.6
1.8
4.2
21.2
1.2
3.6
21.6
1.4
1.9
21.0
1.5
3.5
4
5
6
Table IV—S.^Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts, Quarterly, 1948—51
[Billions of dollars]
1948
I
II
III
1949
IV
Year
I
II
III
1951
1950
IV
Year
I
III
II
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
Line
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.7
14.5
3.7
3.9
3.2
3.2
14.0
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.7
13.1
3.9
4.6
4.4
4.9
17.9
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.7
14.5
3.7
3.9
3.2
3.2
14.0
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.7
13.1
3.9
4.6
4.4
4.9
17.9
2
3.8
3.7
3.3
3.7
14.5
3.7
3.9
3.2
3.2
14.0
3.0
3.3
3.2
3.7
13.1
3.9
4.6
4.4
4.9
17.9
3
2.7
.2
1.0
2.7
.3
.7
2.8
.5
-.1
2.8
.6
.3
11.0
1.6
1.9
2.6
.7
.3
2.5
1.0
.3
2.5
.7
.0
2.5
.7
-.1
10.2
3.2
.5
2.6
.7
-.4
2.8
.9
3.5
.6
-.8
3.6
.6
-.6
12.5
2.8
-2.2
4.0
.5
-.7
4.0
.6
.0
3.8
.5
.2
3.7
.5
.8
15.5
2.1
.2
4
5
6
A
1
Table IV-3.—Foreign Transactions in the National Income Accounts, Quarterly, 1954-57
[Billions of dollars]
1954
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
1957
1956
1955
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
I
II
III
IV
Year
Line
3.9
4.6
4.1
4.8
17.5
4.6
4.8
4.7
5.3
19.4
5.2
5.8
5.6
6.4
23.0
6.6
6.8
6.1
6.4
26.0
1
3.9
4.6
4.1
4.8
17.5
4.6
4.8
4.7
5.3
19.4
5.2
5.8
5.6
6.4
23.0
6.6
6.8
6.1
6.4
26.0
2
3.9
4.6
4.1
4.8
17.5
4.6
4.8
4.7
5.3
19.4
5.2
5.8
5.6
6.4
23.0
6.6
6.8
6.1
6.4
26.0
3
3.9
.4
-.3
4.4
.3
.0
4.2
.3
-.5
4.1
.3
.4
16.5
1.4
-.4
4.2
.5
-.1
4.6
.4
2
4.7
.3
-.3
4.7
.3
.2
18.3
1.5
-.4
4.9
.3
-.1
5.1
.4
.3
5.2
.3
.1
4.9
.4
1.0
20.2
1.4
1.4
5.1
.4
1.1
5.4
.5
1.0
5.4
.3
.4
5.2
.4
.9
21.0
1.5
3.5
4
5
6
184
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table IV-4.—Relation of Foreign Transactions
1946-57 1
in the National Income Accounts to Balance of Payments,
[Millions of dollars]
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
of goods and services, total—BP
Net military grants
Goods and services, excluding net military grants Net Government grants in kind, nonmilitary
Income on investments—Government
Equals: Exports of goods and services—NIA3__
14,804
69
14, 735
1,922
21
12,792
19,780
43
19, 737
1,771
66
17,900
17,089
300
16, 789
2,182
102
14,505
16,061
210
15, 851
1,795
98
13,958
14,427
526
13,901
694
109
13,098
20,333
1,470
18,863
808
198
17,857
20,708
2,603
18,105
470
204
17,431
21,335
4,254
17,081
229
252
16,600
21,110
3,161
17, 949
201
272
17,476
22,328
2,325
20,003
348
274
19,381
26,123
2,605
23, 518
369
194
22,955
28,916
2,440
26. 476
317
205
25,954
Imports of goods and services, total—BP
Plus:
Net private remittances
Less:
Income on investment—Government
Equals: Imports of goods and services—NIA.
•7,241
650
15
7,876
8,208
669
16
8,861
10,349
683
17
11,015
9,702
521
25
10,198
12,098
444
31
12,511
15,142
386
47
15,481
15,760
417
64
16,113
16,644
476
86
17,034
16,088
4S6
59
16,515
17,937
444
94
18,287
19,810
503
154
20,159
20,707
535
201
21,041
10
Balance on goods and services, total—BP [lines (1) minus
(7)].
Total excluding net military grants [lines (3) minus (7)]. ...
Net exports of goods and services—NIA [lines (6) minus
(10)].
Net unilateral transfers to foreign countries, total—BP
Less:
Net military grants
Equals: Totalexcluding net military grants
Less:
Net private remittances
Net Government grants in kind, nonmilitary . ...
Plus:
Net income on investments—Government [lines (9)
minus (5)].
Equals: Net transfer payments by Government—NIA
*7,563
11,572
6,740
6,359
2,329
5,191
4,948
4,691
5,022
4,391
6,313
8,209
11
7,494
4,916
11,529
9,039
6, 440
3,490
6,149
3,760
1,803
587
3,721
2,376
2,345
1,318
437
-434
1. 861
961
2,066
1,094
3,708
2,796
5, 769
4,913
12
13
2,968
69
2,899
650
1,922
-6
2,655
43
2,612
669
1,771
-50
4,811
300
4,511
683
2,182
-85
5,837
210
5,627
521
1.795
-73
4,533
526
4,007
414
694
-78
4,962
1,470
3,492
386
808
-151
5,108
2,603
2, 505
417
470
-140
6,708
4, 254
2, 454
476
229
-166
5,423
3,161
2,262
486
201
-213
4,811
2,325
2,486
444
348
-180
4,937
2, 605
2,332
503
369
-40
4,747
2,440
2,307
535
317
-4
14
15
16
17
18
19
321
122
1,561
3,238
2,791
2,147
1,478
1,583
1,362
1,514
1,420
1,451
20
Net foreign investment—BP=NIA [lintes (11) minus
(14)=(12) minus (16)=(13) minus (20))].
* 4,595
8,917
1,929
522
-2,204
229
-160
-2,017
-401
-420
1,376
3,462
Line
Exports
Less:
Equals:
Less:
2
4. Includes an adjustment for geographical coverage. Total imports of goods and services
were increased by $250 million, and the balance on goods and services, and net foreign investment, respectively, decreased by the same amount. (See footnote 1, page 139 of the 1954
National Income supplement.)
1. Reconciliation items are obtained from published and unpublished balance of payments
data.
2. BP—balance of payments.
3. NIA—national income accounts.
Table IV-5.—-Balance of Payments
Line
on Goods, Services, and Unilateral Transfers, 1946—57
[Millions of dollars]
Line
10
11
12
Exports of goods and services, total
Military supplies and services transferred under grants,
net.
Goods and services, excluding military transferred under grants, total.
Merchandise, adjusted i.
Transportation
Travel
Miscellaneous services:
Private
Government 1
Military transactions
Income on investments:
Direct investments
Other private
Government
Imports of goods and services, total
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Transportation
Travel
Miscellaneous services:
Private
17
Government, excluding military
18
19
Military expenditures
Income on investments:
Private
20
Government
21
13
14
15
16
Balance on goods and services:
Total
Excluding military supplies and services transferred
under grants.
Unilateral transfers, net [to foreign countries (—)]:
Total
Excluding military supplies and services
Private remittances
.
Government:
Military supplies and services
Other grants
Pensions and other transfers
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
14,804
69
14, 735
19,780
43
17,089
300
14,427
526
16, 789
13,901
20,333
1,470
18,863
20,708
2,603
19, 737
16,061
210
15,851
18,105
21,335
4,254
17, 081
11, 707
1,383
271
16, 015
1,738
364
13,193
1,317
334
12,149
1,238
392
10,117
1,033
419
14,123
1,556
473
13, 319
1,488
550
471
131
448
70
505
100
0)
545
132
0)
607
132
0)
677
152
589
162
21
869
167
66
1,064
174
102
1,112
185
98
1,294
190
109
6,991
5,073
459
462
8,208
5,979
583
573
10,349
7,563
646
631
9,702
6,879
700
700
190
102
493
195
178
455
219
211
799
197
15
229
16
7,813
7,744
1955
1956
1957
21,110
3,161
17, 949
22,328
2,325
28,916
2,440
20,003
26,123
2,605
23,51^
12, 281
1,198
574
12, 799
1,171
595
14,280
1,420
654
17, 321 f 19, 327
1,847
1,619
785
705
714
206
0)
0)
754
172
192
829
149
179
879
122
204
938
121
156
1,492
192
198
1,419
205
204
1,442
216
252
1,725
230
272
1,912
258
274
2,160
304
194
12,098
9,108
818
754
15,142
11, 202
974
757
15,760
10, 838
1,115
840
16,644
10,990
1,081
929
16,088
10, 354
1,026
1,009
17,937
11, 527
1,204
1,153
19,810
12, 791
1,432
1,275
20,707
13,291
1,428
1,372
13
14
15
16
234
235
621
247
250
576
330
254
1,270
343
277
1,957
392
267
2,535
429
248
2,603
486
242
2,823
520
264
2,910
531
312
3,120
17
18
19
263
17
308
25
314
31
308
47
326
64
364
86
360
59
408
94
464
154
452
201
20
21
11,572
11,529
6,740
6,440
6,359
6,149
2,329
1,803
5,191
3,721
4,948
2,345
4,691
437
5,022
1,861
4,391
2,066
6,313
3,708
8,209
5,769
22
23
-2,968
-2,899
-650
-2,655
- 2 , 612
-669
-4,811
-4,511
-683
-5,837
- 5 , 627
-521
-4,533
-4,007
-444
-4,962
-3,492
-386
-5,108
-2,505
-417
-6,708
-2,454
-476
-5,423
- 2 , 262
-486
-4,811
-2,486
-444
-4,937
-2,332
-503
-4,747
-2,307
-535
24
25
26
-69
- 2 , 274
25
-43
-1,897
-46
-300
- 3 , 894
66
-210
- 4 , 997
-109
-526
-3,484
-79
-1,470
-3,035
-71
-2,603
-1,960
-128
- 4 , 254
-1,837
-141
-3,161
-1,647
-129
-2,325
-1,901
-141
-2,605
-1,695
-134
- 2 , 440
-1,613
-159
27
28
29
0)
0)
1. Military transactions prior to 1953 are included in merchandise and in Government services (lines 4 and 8).
Line
26, 476
lj, 131
J37
3C8
2,313 ,
363
205
10
11
12
185
FOREIGN TRANSACTIONS
Table IV-6.—United States Government Net Foreign Assistance, 1946-57
l
[Billions of dollars]
1946
Line
Total 2.
Grants
Long-term credits.__
Short-term credits 3.
Other aid.
Western Europe and dependent areas
Near East (including Greece and Turkey) and AfricaSouth Asia
Other Asia and Pacific
American Republics
Unspecified areas
1948
1950
1952
1953
1955
1956
1957
5.7
5.3
5.7
4.2
4.6
5.0
6,4
4.9
4.6
4.9
5.1
2.9
2.6
1.9
3.9
4.3
1. 1
5.2
.5
4.0
. 1
4.5
. 1
4.6
.4
6 1
2
.0
4.9
-.1
.2
4.3
-.1
.3
4.4
.0
.6
4.1
.3
.2
.5
1.5
2.7
4.3
3.2
2.4
2.6
2.5
3. 1
1.2
2.0
1.2
1.4
1.0
1.6
1.1
1. 1
1.4
2.1
1.7
2.2
2.3
2.6
.7
.4
.2
.7
.1
.1
.4
.4
.3
1.0
.2
.1
.5
.3
.3
1.0
.2
.2
.0
.1
.0
.4
.2
.3
.2
5.4
5.7
4.9
5.4
3.6
3.2
2.4
3.3
.2
.0
4.3
.1
.0
.9
. 1
.3
3.8
.2
.0
.8
.0
.1
4.2
.2
.0
.9
2.7
.2
.0
.6
.0
.1
2. 1
.3
.1
.5
. 1
.0
1.4
.4
.1
.4
.1
.0
1. A reconciliation of the net foreign assistance items as shown in this table with comparable
entries in the balance of payments is given in the Balance of Payments Statistical Supplement,
Office of Business Economics, 1958, pp. 120-3.
2. Does not include the U . S . Government capital investment in the International Bank
for Reconstruction and Development, International Finance Corporation, and International
Monetary Fund; as follows: 1946, $0.3 billion; 1947, $3.1 billion; 1956, less than $50 million.
1949
5.5
Military supplies and services (grants)...
Western Europe and dependent areas..
O ther areas
1947
Line
10
11
12
13
14
3. Short-term claims acquired by the U. S. Government under agricultural sales programs,
less short-term liability for currencies advanced by foreign governments pending delivery
of agricultural commodities.
V. Saving and Investment
PAGE
V - l . Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, 1946-57 (5)
V-2.
Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at
Annual Rates, 1946-57
188
V-3.
New Construction Activity, by Type, 1946-57 (31)
190
V-4.
New Construction Activity, by Type, in Constant Dollars, 1946-57
191
V-5.
Private Purchases of Producers' Durable Equipment, 1946-54 (32)
192
V-6.
Private Purchases of Producers' Durable Equipment, in Constant Dollars,
1946-54
V-7.
Expenditures on New Plant and Equipment by U. S. Business, 1946-57
V-8.
V-9.
466759 O—59
192
193
Net Change in Business Inventories, 1946-57 (33)
Securities and Exchange Commission Estimates of Personal Saving and Its
Disposition and Comparison with Office of Business Economics Estimates
of Personal Saving, 1946-57 (6)
V-10.
Sources and Uses of Corporate Funds, 1946-57
V - l l . Balance of Payments on Capital Account, 1946-57
194
195
195
V-l 2. Private Purchases of Structures and Equipment for Manufacturing Establishments, 1929-57
196
V-l 3. Depreciation on Privately Owned Structures and Equipment in Manufacturing Establishments, 1929-57
196
V-l 4. Net Formation of Privately Owned Structure and Equipment Capital in
Manufacturing Establishments, 1929-57
196
V-l 5. Real Net Value of Privately Owned Structures, Equipment, and Inventories
in Manufacturing Establishments, End of Year, 1928-57
196
*Figures in parentheses refer to corresponding tables in the 1954 National Income supplement.
188
13
193
188
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table V-l.—Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, 1946-57 l
[Millions of dollars]
1946
1947
1948
1949
26,517
23,571
37,615
36,102
40,321
49,198
52,184
54,142
54,353
59,578
64,208
66,324
13, 460
7, 656
-5,263
9,041
4, 704
11,721
-5,899
11,062
10, 987
13, 274
- 2 . 152
13, 101
8,496
8, 522
1,856
15,091
12, 642
13, 555
-4,965
16, 500
17,676
10, 677
-1,199
18, 753
18,940
8.278
981
20, 872
19, 825
8,864
-997
23, 066
18,860
7,002
-318
25, 202
17, 508
11,820
-1,736
27, 943
21,054
11,033
- 2 , 560
30, 755
20, 707
9,422
-1,548
33, 704
407
1,246
-30
567
1,401
15
574
1, 796
35
518
1, 665
-46
616
1,949
24
909
2,308
74
684
2, 451
-22
813
2,647
-76
917
2, 690
0
1,055
2,988
0
729
3,197
0
897
3, 142
0
Government surplus on income and product transactions
4,130
13,264
8,248
-3,113
8,179
6,118
-3,855
-7,102
-6,735
2,857
6,283
1,705
F ederal
State and local
Gross investment.
Gross private domestic investmentNet foreign investment
2,186
1,944
12,176
1,088
7,997
251
- 2 , 537
-576
9, 189
-1,010
6,417
-299
-3,906
51
-7,374
272
- 5 , 793
-942
3.842
-985
6,837
-554
2,876
-1,171
Line
Gross private saving
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits
Corporate inventory valuation adjustment.
Depreciation charges
Accidental damage tofixedbusiness capital-.
Capital outlays charged to current expense...
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements..
15
Statistical discrepancy.
1954
1957
Line
32,735
40,376
45,016
33,499
47,766
56,563
49,703
48,323
48,471
63,423
69,556
68,754
28,140
4,595
31, 459
8,917
43,087
1,929
32,977
522
49, 970
- 2 , 204
49, 863
-160
50, 340
-2,017
48,872
-401
63,843
-420
68,180
1,376
65,292
3,462
2,088
3,541
-847
510
56, 334
229
1,247
1,374
1,283
853
-734
10
11
13
14
-935
1. In principle gross private saving plus government surplus on income and product transactions equals gross investment. Because of estimating errors, it differs from it by the amount of
the statistical discrepancy.
Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1946-47 ]
Table V-2.—Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, Seasonally Adjusted
[Billions of dollars]
1946
I
Line
Gross private saving..
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits
Corporate inventory valuation adjustmentCapital consumption allowance
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements..
Government surplus on income and product transactions..
Federal
State and localGross investment..
Gross private domestic investment.
Net foreign investment
Statistical discrepancy.
II
1947
Year
IV
III
II
I
III
Year
IV
29.5
27.8
23.5
25.0
26.5
22.2
20.4
25.6
25.9
23.6
16.3
3.5
1 o
10.1
.8
-7.1
15.1
5.9
-2.8
10.5
-.9
11.2
9.6
-8.1
10.8
.0
11.0
11.6
-8.9
11.3
.0
13.5
7.7
-5.3
10.7
.0
8.1
11.8
-9.7
11.9
.0
.9
11.2
-4.7
12.9
.0
5.1
11.2
-4.0
13.3
.0
4.5
12.5
-5.2
14.1
.0
4.7
11.7
-5.9
13.0
0
2.7
9.1
11.7
4.1
14.2
14.6
9.6
14.5
13.3
2^0
10. 1
1.6
2.2
1.9
12.9
1.3
13.2
1.4
8.7
.9
13.9
.7
12.2
1.1
-9.3
2.2
25.4
33.3
7.3
1.8
35.9
36.4
32.7
38.8
38.5
39.4
44.3
40.4
22.1
3.3
29.0
4.3
29.6
6.2
31 8
4.5
28.1
4.6
29.8
9.0
29.2
9.3
29.6
9.7
36.7
7.7
31.5
8.9
3.0
2.8
3.2
-.4
2.1
2.3
3.5
4.2
3.9
3.5
1. Footnote to table V-l is relevant to this table also.
Table V-2.—Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, Seasonally Adjusted
Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1952-53 *
[Billions of dollars]
1952
II
Line
Gross private saving..
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits
Corporate inventory valuation adjustment..
Capital consumption allowance
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements..
III
1953
II
Year
IV
III
Year
IV
51.1
50.8
53.6
52.8
52.2
54.2
54.2
53.7
51.3
54.1
17.5
8.8
1.3
23.4
.1
17.9
7.7
1.2
23.9
.1
21.5
7.6
.7
24.1
-.3
18.4
9.0
19.0
10.1
-.4
25.6
.0
19.6
10.2
19.7
24.7
.0
18.9
8.3
1.0
24.0
.0
26.2
-.1
21.6
5.4
.0
27.4
-.1
19.8
8.9
-1.0
26.5
-. 1
9.3
-2.0
26.8
-.1
.9
-4.3
-7.0
-4.7
-3.9
-5.5
-5.9
-5.4
-11.8
-7.1
Federal
State and local
1.0
-.1
-4.2
-.1
-7.2
.2
-5.1
.4
-3.9
.1
-5.1
-.4
-7.0
1.2
-5.6
.3
-11.8
.0
-7.4
.3
Gross investment..
54.3
46.5
47.4
50.7
49.7
49.9
50.3
49.1
43.8
48.3
52.2
2.0
45.6
.9
49.1
-1.7
52.6
-1.9
49.9
-.2
52.0
-2.1
52.9
-2.6
51.1
-2.0
45.2
-1.4
50.3
-2.0
2.3
.0
2.6
1.4
1.1
2.0
1.2
1.3
Government surplus on income and product transactions..
Gross private domestic investmentNet foreign investment
Statistical discrepancy.
1. Footnote to table V-l is relevant to this table also.
189
SAVING AND INVESTMENT
Table V-2.—Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1948-51
[Billions of dollars]
1949
1948
I
II
30.2
37.9
40.3
41.9
4.8
13.3
-2.9
14.8
.1
11.4
13.9
-2.9
15.4
.1
14.4
13.4
-2.8
15.5
-.2
13.2
12.5
-.1
16.1
.1
14.3
8.9
5.9
13.9
.4
8.5
.4
44.1
45.3
5.8
2
45.7
39.9
4.2
43.2
2.1
-.3
-1.5
1950
II
in
IV
36.1
41.9
39.7
34.1
45.5
8.5
8.5
1.9
17.3
.0
15.2
8.9
18^5
.0
11.8
12.4
-3.3
18.9
.0
5.8
16.5
-7.3
19.1
.0
17.6
16.5
-8.5
19.8
.1
-3.2
-3.1
-5.2
6.9
16.4
14.6
8.2
20.4
7.8
-.9
-2.5
6.1
7
-2.1
-1.0
-2.5
-.6
-3.8
-1.4
8.3
-1.3
17.0
-.6
15.3
-.7
9.2
-1.0
20.2
.1
8.1
-.3
Q
n
-2.4
-.1
6.4
-.3
8
9
34.3
29.8
33.5
38.9
44.6
48.2
58.7
47.8
54.6
61.0
58.2
52.9
56.6
10
30.8
.6
33.7
.7
30.6
-.8
33.0
.5
39.8
-.9
46.9
-2.3
51.1
-3.0
61.4
-2.7
50.0
-2.2
56.9
-2.3
61.6
-.6
56.3
1.9
51.0
1.9
56.3
.2
11
12
-.5
.4
1.5
.5
2.3
-2.1
-2.3
-1.3
-.7
-.3
1.0
3.1
1.7
1.2
13
II
37.6
39.3
36.3
37.4
31.4
11.0
13.3
-2.2
15.5
.0
11.6
9.7
1.4
16.6
.1
9.1
7.7
2.8
17.0
-.3
8.1
8.8
3.0
17.5
.0
5.3
8.0
.2
18.0
.0
4.1
8.2
-1.5
-4.4
-3.5
3.8
.3
8.0
.3
-1.4
-.1
-3.9
-.5
-2.8
-.7
44.8
45.0
38.4
31.4
45.2
.5
43.9
.9
43.1
1.9
36.8
1.6
-.5
-1.2
o
.6
IV
Year
Line
I
i
III
1951
Year
IV
III
I
II
III
IV
40.3
34.6
52.3
56.0
53.7
49.2
1
12.6
13.6
-5.0
19.1
.0
8.2
14.1
-8.7
20.7
.2
20.9
11.0
-1.0
21.5
20.7
8.7
20.4
9.2
1.5
23.2
-.6
17.7
10.7
-1.2
22.0
.1
2
3
4
5
6
Year
i
3.5
22.4
.8
Year
Table V-2.—Sources and Uses of Gross Saving, Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly Totals at Annual Rates, 1954-57 *
[Billions of dollars]
1955
1954
1956
I
II
54.4
55.3
60.4
59.4
62.8
18.9
7.0
-.3
28.8
.0
14.4
11.1
-1.1
30.8
.1
17.8
11.5
-.9
31.6
.5
16.8
13.0
-2.2
32.4
-.6
19.8
12.8
-2.8
33.0
.0
-3.7
-6.7
-.7
2.1
4.9
-2.3
-1.4
-5.8
-.9
.8
-1.5
3.5
-1.4
5.5
-.6
47.9
53.1
48.5
58.4
62.3
65.5
47.2
-.4
48.8
-.9
52.3
.7
48.9
-.4
58.8
-.5
63.1
-.8
.8
1.7
.9
3.7
-.2
I
II
55.5
53.7
53.4
55.1
21.0
6.7
.0
27.9
.0
18.3
7.0
.0
28.5
.0
18.0
7.0
-.7
29.1
.0
17.7
8.0
-.5
29.9
.0
-10.9
-6.1
-6.4
-10.6
-.3
-5.4
—. 7
-5.1
-1.3
45.6
46.8
46.6
-1.0
1.0
III
IV
Year
1957
I
II
III
IV
59.6
60.5
63.4
66.2
66.5
17.5
11.8
-1.7
32.0
.0
17.9
11.7
-2.8
33.7
.0
21.6
10.7
-3.2
34.3
.0
22.4
10.2
-1.5
35.0
.0
21.7
11.9
-2.7
35.7
.0
5.1
2.9
7.2
6.9
5.4
5.6
3.8
-1.0
7.7
-.5
5.8
- .4
67.1
63.4
67.5
7.3
-.4
69.0
65.4
•1
67.6
-.5
63.8
-.4
68.0
-.5
67.7
1.3
1.2
-.9
1.0
-.2
-1.3
III
Year
IV
A
Year
Line
Year
I
II
III
IV
64.2
65.1
68.4
66.8
64.9
66.3
1
21.1
11.0
-2.6
34.7
.0
20.3
10.6
-2.4
36.6
.0
23.2
9.2
-1.5
37.5
.0
20.4
9.4
-1.1
38.1
.0
19.6
8.0
-1.1
38.5
.0
20.7
9.4
-1.5
37.7
.0
2
3
4
5
6
5.5
6.3
4.1
1.3
2.8
-2.3
1.7
7
6.5
-1.0
6.8
-.6
5.5
-1.4
2.6
-1.3
3.4
-.6
-.2
-2.1
2.9
-1.2
8
9
70.0
71.6
69.6
70.1
71.2
70.3
63.4
68.8
10
68.1
2.0
68.8
2.8
68.2
1.4
65.9
4.2
67.0
4.2
66.7
3.6
61.5
1.9
65.3
3.5
11
12
-1.5
-.5
-.9
.9
1.5
.7
.7
.7
13
190
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT TABLES
Table V-3.—New Construction
Activity, by Type, 1946-57 i
[Millions of dollars]
Line
/1956
Lin
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
13,390
18,688
24,281
25,217
31,216
34,230
36,433
38,982
41,644
46,902
48,737
50,837
1
11,028
15,254
19,454
18,813
24,215
24,811
25,532
27,588
29,722
34,941
35,732
36,483
2
Residential buildings (excluding farm)
New dwelling units
Additions and alterations
Nonhousekeeping units
4,752
3,300
1,307
145
7,535
5,450
1,960
125
10,122
7,500
2,467
155
9,642
7,257
2,200
185
14,100
11, 525
2,400
175
12,529
9,849
2,490
190
12, 842
9,870
2,787
185
13, 777
10, 555
2, 955
267
15, 379
12, 070
3,013
296
18, 705
14,990
3,376
339
17, 677
13, 535
3,695
447
17, 019
12, 615
3,903
501
3
4
5
6
Nonresidential buildings (excluding farm)2
Industrial buildings
Warehouses, office and loft buildings,..
Stores, restaurants, and garages
Other nonresidential buildings
Religious
Educational
Hospital and institutional
Social and recreational
Miscellaneous
3,341
1,689
331
801
520
76
123
85
125
111
3,142
1,702
237
619
584
126
174
110
99
75
3, 621
1,397
352
901
971
251
253
126
224
117
3,228
972
321
706
1,229
360
269
202
262
136
3,777
1,062
402
886
1,427
409
294
344
247
133
5,152
2,117
544
827
1,664
452
345
419
164
284
5,014
2,320
515
622
1,557
399
351
394
125
288
5,680
2,229
739
1, 052
1,660
472
426
317
163
282
6,250
2,030
958
1,254
2,008
593
529
337
228
321
7,611
2,399
1,311
1,907
1,994
734
492
351
239
178
8,817
3,084
1,684
1,947
2,102
768
536
328
275
195
9,556
3,557
1 893
1^ 671
2,435
868
525
525
311
206
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Public utilities
Railroads
Telephone and telegraph
Other public utilities 3
1,374
258
305
811
2,338
318
510
1,510
3, 043
379
713
1,951
3,323
352
533
2,438
3,330
315
440
2,575
3,729
399
487
2,843
4,003
438
570
2,995
4,416
442
615
3,359
4,284
353
655
3,276
4,543
374
805
3,364
5,113
427
1,066
3,620
5,774
406
1,068
4,300
17
18
19
20
Farm construction
Residential
Nonresidential
856
409
447
1,397
683
714
1,544
738
806
1,488
695
793
1,635
763
872
1,846
863
983
1,905
890
1, 015
1,731
809
922
1,645
769
876
1,600
750
850
1,560
730
830
1,590
744
846
21
22
23
Petroleum and natural gas well drilling
653
773
1,059
1,054
1,261
1,491
1,683
1,864
2,043
2,321
2,445
2,345
24
52
69
65
78
112
64
85
120
121
161
120
199
25
2,362
3,434
4,827
6,404
7,001
9,419
10,901
11,394
11,922
11,961
13,005
14,354
26
374
354
113
101
85
55
200
599
96
287
85
131
156
1,301
196
618
223
264
359
2,068
177
934
477
480
345
2,384
224
1,133
496
531
595
3,497
974
1,513
528
482
654
4,136
1,684
1,619
473
360
556
4,346
1,771
1,714
365
496
336
4,636
1,506
2, 134
360
636
266
4,218
721
2,442
322
733
292
4,074
453
2,556
298
767
506
4,486
473
2,825
333
855
27
28
29
30
31
32
895
194
84
260
13
204
1,451
351
141
424
64
158
1,774
535
164
670
137
2,131
619
184
852
54
177
2,272
659
160
942
62
887
2, 518
775
184
912
51
1,388
2,820
790
168
900
45
1,307
3,160
883
167
892
83
1,030
3,870
982
189
773
106
1,313
4,050
1,085
233
701
95
1,395
4,655
1,275
384
826
104
1,322
5,215
1,344
393
971
117
33
34
35
36
37
38
Total new construction activity
New private construction activity
All other private 4
New public construction activity
Residential buildings
Nonresidential buildings
Industrial
Educational
Hospital and institutional
Other nonresidential buildings
.
5
Military facilities
Highways
Sewer and water systems
Miscellaneous public service enterprises
Conservation and development
All other public 6
1. These construction data are published by the Business and Defense Sci vices Administration of the Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department
of Labor, except for petroleum and natural gas well drilling which is estimated by the Office
of Business Economics.
2. Excludes nonresidential building by privately owned public utilities.
3. Consists of local transit, petroleum pipeline, electric light and power (including construc-
1955
1957
7
8
r
tion with Rural Electrification Administration funds), and manufactured and natural gas.
4. Consists of sewer and water, roads, bridges, and miscellaneous nonstructural items such
as parks and playgrounds.
5. Consists of public administration, social and recreational, commercial, and miscellaneous
nonresidential.
6. Includes publicly owned parks and playgrounds, memorials, etc.
191
SAVING AND INVESTMENT
Table V-4.—New Construction Activity, by Type, in Constant Dollars, 1946-57 *
[Millions of 1954 dollars]
Line
1
2
Total new construction activity
New private construction activity
1957
Line
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
21,048
24,361
28,551
30,184
35,743
36,303
37,321
39,038
41,644
45,555
44,890
45,153
1
17,495
19,981
22,982
22,675
27,659
26,306
26,267
27,712
29,722
33,877
32,928
32, 461
2
15,379 | 18,148
1956
3
Residential buildings (excluding farm)
7,367
9,641
11,597
11.408
15, 670
12,993
12,966
13, 679
16, 427
15 531
3
4
Nonresidential buildings (excl