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Week ending: September 22,1971 <%rtn Hjji. LIBRARY JUN 05 19?9 The nation's money stock has expanded at a 9 per cent annual rate so far in 1971 (page 5). The growth of money has decelerated in recent months, however, despite a continued rapid expansion in Federal Reserve credit. Over the past three months, money has expanded at a 3.6 per cent rate, after rising at an extremely rapid 12 per cent rate in the previous five months. For comparison, money grew 5.4 per cent in 1970 and at a trend growth rate of 3.3 per cent from 1957 to 1969. Growth of time deposits at commercial banks has also decelerated in recent months, after rising rapidly during most of 1970 and the first part of 1971 (page 6). Time deposits other than large certificates of deposit (net time deposits) have risen at a 6.2 per cent annual rate in the past three months, somewhat slower than the 10.7 per cent trend growth rate from 1960 to 1970. In comparison, net time deposits increased at a 14 per cent rate from February 1970 to December 1970 and at a 24 per cent rate in the first five months of 1971. Part of the growth of time deposits in commercial banks in 1970 and early 1971 can be attributed to rapid reintermediation of saving funds; the recent deceleration of time deposit growth signals a marked slowing of this process. The growth of saving deposits in nonbank thrift institutions has slowed somewhat from the growth rate in the first part of 1971, but has not slowed as much as saving flows into commercial banks. For example, nonbank thrift institution deposits have expanded at a 15 per cent annual rate in the past three months, somewhat slower than the 23 per cent rate in the first five months of 1971. However, the growth rate over the past three months is still faster than the trend rate of 8.3 per cent from 1960 to 1970. GROWTH OF TIME AND SAVING DEPOSITS (Compounded annual rates of change) 1960 to 1970 Total Time Deposits at Commercial Banks 12/68 to 2/70 2/70 to 12/70 12/70 to 5/71 5/71 to 8/71 11.7% -4.7 % 23.3% 23.3% 2/ 10.3%- 1.0 14.3 23.8 3.0 8.6 23.1 15.1 2.0 11.3 23.4 11.6 Net Time Deposits at Commercial Banks 10.7 Nonbank Thrift Institutions—^ 8.3^ ~ Net Time Deposits Plus Nonbank Thrift Institutions 6.2^ 1/ Deposits at mutual savings banks and savings and loan institutions. 27 4 weeks ending 6/16/71 to the 4 weeks ending 9/15/71. 3/ Prior to 1964, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis series. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: September 24, 1971 MONETARY BASE 1/ FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT^ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR llflEEKS ENDING -----SEPTEMBER 22, 1971 FRO THE FOUR WEEKS ENDINGi THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS _ - JUL. JUN. MAY — APR. MAR. _ FEB. JAN. 21, 23, 19, 21, 24, 24, 20, 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 MONETARY BASE 6.8 7.8 7.4 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.7 1971 MILLIONS 25 87 1 88 15 88 8 88 22 88 I I I I 78 _ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING -----SEPTEMBER 22, 197! FROM. THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 76 12.5 _ FEB. JAN. 74 13.8 12.9 12.3 24 20 FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT 72 70 MILLIONS 7 15 22 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 9 23 6 20 JAN 3 17 FEB 3 17 31 1970 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 22, 14 28 12 26 9 23 I I I 7 21 1 I I I 4 18 7 I I 1 ! 5 29 13 27 1971 1971 1/ USES OF MONETARY BASE ARE MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND NONMEMBER BANKS. ADJUSTED FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN DEPOSITS. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE BASE SEE THE AUGUST 1968 ••REVIEW" OF THIS BANK. 2/ DEFINED TO INCLUDE HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES, LOANS. FLOAT AND "OTHER" ASSETS, ADJUSTED FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT CHANGES AND CHANGES IN REQUIREMENTS DUE TO SHIFTS IN DEPOSITS AMONG CLASSES OF BANKS. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 RESERVES ALL MEMBER BANKS IN THE NATION AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 33.0 33.0 32.5 31.0 31.0 30.5 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.0 7 21 OCT NOV JAN FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING* SEPTEMBER 22, APR 1 IS 20 13 27 MAY 1971 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H,9 RELEASE. * BREAK IN SERIES DUE TO CHANGES IN REGULATION D EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 1, http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1971 AUG. SEP. BILLIONS 18 25 1 8 15 22 31.8 31.4 31.9 32.3 32.2 31.8 1970. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR ifcEEKS ENDING SEPTEMBER 22. 1971 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: JUL. JUN. MAY APR. MAR. FEB. JAN. 21, 23, 19, 21, 24, 24, 20, 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 17.9 10.6 9.6 11.1 9.3 9.3 9.5 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 180 176.7 176.7 176.5 175.6 174.9 5 18 2 16 30 14 28 II 25 OCT NOV 8 23 6 20 JAN 3 17 FEB 3 17 31 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt SEPTEMBER 15, 14 28 12 28 APR MAY 8 23 1 7 21 ! 5 28 13 27 1971 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS1 H.6 RELEASE. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 9/16/70 1/13/71 2/17/71 3/17/71 4/14/71 2.8 5. 1 7.4 5.4 8.1 8. 1 7.6 6.8 10.6 14.5 8.5 12.9 12. 1 10.7 9. 1 21.2 10.3 15.5 13.9 11.9 9.9 6.3 14.5 12.9 10.7 8.6 10.6 9.7 8.0 6.0 5/12/71 6/16/71 7/14/71 19.0 13.3 9.6 5.4 3.0 1.0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt 2/17/71 3/17/71 4/14/71 5/12/71 6/16/71 7/14/71 8/18/71 9/15/71 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 235 billions 228.6 228.7 228.1 227.4 227.1 226.9 230 225 220 215 210 5 10 2 16 SO 14 28 II 25 0 23 6 20 3 17 JAN FEB 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 9 23 7 21 JUL 4 18 AUG I 15 20 13 27 1970 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 15, 1971 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 9/16/70 1/13/71 2/17/71 3/17/71 4/14/71 5/12/71 6/16/71 7/14/71 3.6 5.5 7.5 6.0 8. 1 8. 1 7.7 7.0 10.4 13.5 8.9 12.2 11.6 10.4 8.9 18.8 10.4 14.2 13. 1 11.3 9.5 7.4 13.5 12.2 10.4 8.4 10.3 9.7 8.2 6.3 16.8 12.1 8.9 6.0 3.6 1.5 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/17/71 3/17/71 4/14/71 5/12/71 6/16/71 7/14/71 8/18/71 9/15/71 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 6 TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 260 250 TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS 240 230 220 NET TIME DEPOSITS * 210 200 190 5 10 2 16 30 14 28 II 25 9 23 6 20 JAN 3 17 FEB 3 17 31 14 2* 12 25 APR MAY 9 23 1 7 21 15 29 13 27 1970 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 15, 1971 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. * NET TIME DEPOSITS ARE DEFINED AS: SAVINGS DEPOSITS, TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF *100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS. NET TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 9/16/70 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 1/13/71 2/17/71 3/17/71 4/14/71 5/12/71 6/16/71 7/14/71 32.5 30.3 25.4 23.2 20.7 17.9 16.6 30.0 23. 1 21.0 18.4 15.6 14.3 17.7 17. 1 14.8 12.4 11.5 13.6 11.7 9.7 9. 1 12.3 9.5 8.8 6.0 6.2 5.5 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/17/71 3/17/71 4/14/71 5/12/71 6/16/71 7/14/71 8/18/71 9/15/71 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 20.3 22.4 22.8 21.3 20.6 19.3 17.7 16.8 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK PLUS TIME DEPOSITS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 r=-------- -------------- ------ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------ -------------- ---------=1 500 MONEY STOCK PLUS TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS 5 19 2 16 30 ! 4 28 11 25 9 23 6 20 3 17 JAN FEB 3 17 31 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGi SEPTEMBER 15, 14 28 12 26 9 23 7 21 JUL 4 18 AUG 1 15 29 13 27 1971 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. Mi IS DEFINED AS: CURRENCY, DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (SEE PAGE 6). MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS ( M2 ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 9/16/70 1/13/71 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/17/71 3/17/71 4/14/71 5/12/71 6/16/71 7/14/71 24.2 16.6 17.5 15.6 13.5 11.9 12.6 15.2 13.5 11.5 10.0 11.8 10.6 9.0 7.7 14.4 10.9 8.9 6.3 5.0 3.6 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING; 2/17/71 3/17/71 4/14/71 5/12/71 6/16/71 7/14/71 8/18/71 9/15/71 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11.5 13.5 14.7 13.3 14. 1 13.5 12.6 1 1.7 20.7 21.5 16.8 17.4 15.9 14. 1 12.6 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS billions 5 19 of WEDNESDAY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED dollars 2 16 50 14 28 11 25 9 25 6 20 JAN 5 17 FEB 5 17 51 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 15. 14 28 12 26 billions of dollars 9 25 7 21 4 18 1 IS 29 15 27 1971 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS***H.6 RELEASE. NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis MONEY AND TIME DEPOSIT DATA CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT 1971 AUG. SEP. OCT. 4 1 1 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 BILLIONS NET TIME DEPOS1TS * 30. 1 29.7 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.5 31.9 227.4 227.7 227.6 228.2 228.4 228.8 228.7 M2 m 454.1 456. 3 456.3 456.3 455.8 455.9 455.6 * SEE FOOTNOTE PAGE 6. ** SEE FOOTNOTE PAGE 7. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS (CREDIT PROXY ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 365 r----------------------------- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS —------------- -------- n 365 CREDIT PROXY ADJUSTED 1/ IREDIT PROXY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB 9 23 MAR APR MAY 7 21 JUL 4 1« AUG t 15 29 13 27 1970 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt SEPTEMBER 15, 1971 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE. 1/ INCLUDES MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS, BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER. EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S. BANKS, ANO CERTAIN OTHER NONDEPOSIT SOURCES. 19Z1 BILLIONS CREDIT PROXY AUG. SEP. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 1 18 25 1 8 15 CREDIT PROXY ADJUSTED 344.4 346.8 350. 1 349.9 349.9 350.2 348.7 350.5 353.8 353.8 353.7 353.9 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING SEPTEMBER 15, 1971 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: CREDIT CREDIT PROXY PROXY ADJUSTED JUL. JUN. MAY APR. MAR. FEB. JAN. M, 16, 12, 14, IT, IT, 13, 1 9T1 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 14.T 10.3 11.2 11.0 11.1 12.4 13.5 13.4 9.7 10.3 9. 1 8.4 9. 1 9.7 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY per cent CORPORATE AAA BONDS MUNICIPAL PRIME COMMERCIAL LOAN RATE DISCOUNT RATE THREE-MONTH TREASURY BILL MARKET YIELD 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 M 25 2 16 30 14 28 11 8 22 FEB 25 9 25 MAR 8 20 AUG 5 IT SEP 1 15 29 1970 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 24, 1971 1--------------------------CORPORATE Aaa BONOS 1971 AUG. SEP. OCT. 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 * 1 8 15 22 29 3-MONTH TREASURY BILLS 3-5 YEAR GOVERNMENT SECURITIES LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT SECUR1T1ES MUNICIPAL BONDS «* 7.69 7.71 7.48 7.50 7.45 7.42 7.44 7.43 5.28 5.24 4.71 4.69 4.47 4.62 4.79 4.75 6.85 6.81 6.05 6.06 5.89 5.94 6.00 6.00 5.93 5.90 5.64 5.70 5.58 5.51 5.59 5.57 6.07 6.03 5.49 5.71 5.39 5.36 5.38 N.A. X AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. XX BOND BUYER'S AVERAGF INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, N.A. - NOT aVa'LABLE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis THURSDAY DATA. PRFFARED BY FEDERAL RFSERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SELECTED SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PER CENT PER CENT 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-T0-6 MONTH 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 4.0 3.5 3.0 7 21 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 NOV DEC 1970 8 22 5 19 FEB S 19 MAR 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 MAY JUN 9 23 6 20 3 17 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDINGs SEPTEMBER 24, http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 MONTH 1971 AUG. SEP. OCT. 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 * 1 8 15 22 29 FEDERAL FUNDS PRIME BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES 5.65 5.58 5.53 5. 48 5.70 5.75 5.42 5. 46 5.63 5.63 5.55 5.53 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 15 29 1971 90 DAY CD'S K* 5.75 5.83 5.78 5.63 5.70 5.75 5.75 5.75 1 5.80 5.82 5.88 5.75 5.56 5.55 5.60 5.66 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. FEDERAL FUNDS LAST FIVE DAYS AVAILABLE DATA ARE SECONDARY MARKET RATES, WEEKLY AVERAGES ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THF BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS BORROWINGS AND EXCESS RESERVES ALL MEMBER BANKS !N THE NATION BILLIONS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DOU.ARS 2.0 ---------------r- BORROWINGS EXCESS RESERVES 0.8 - NET FREE RESERVES 1.2 - -I .6 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 7 21 SEP OCT JUL AUG 1970 4 18 NOV 2 16 50 13 2/ 10 24 10 24 DEC JAN FEB MAR 9 19 MAY 1971 T 21 APR 2 16 90 14 28 It 25 8 22 JUL AUG SEP JUN J LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING) SEPTEMBER 22. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1971 MILLIONS EXCESS RESERVES 1971 AUG. SEP. OCT. 4 1 1 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27 517 27 224 91 324 224 266 227 BORROWINGS 764 593 1179 771 706 765 457 328 FREE RESERVES - 247 566 955 680 382 541 191 101 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 2.0 -