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Week ending: September 19, 1973 library: JUN 0 8 1979 The money stock has increased at a 5.4 rate in the past six months. Within this period a 2.9 percent rate of increase in the past three an 8 percent rate in the previous three months. increased 5.8 percent in the past year, somewhat percent average rate from 1967 to 1972. percent annual money grew at months and at Money has below the 6.3 Money plus net time deposits, a more broadly defined monetary aggregate, has increased at a 7.6 percent annual rate in the past six months. This period is composed of a 6.3 percent rate in the past three months and an 8.9 percent rate in the previous three months. The slowing in this aggregate reflects the slowing of the money component. The net time deposit component has increased at a 9.6 percent annual rate in the past three months, the same as the rate in the previous three months. The recent growth of time deposits was facili tated by the raising of maximum interest rate ceilings payable by banks on consumer-type savings deposits as well as the exemption of ceiling rates on some longer maturity savings deposits. The monetary base, a primary determinant of the trend growth of the money stock, has slowed to a 4.7 percent annual rate in the past three months, as compared with an 8.1 percent rate in the previous three months. Federal Reserve credit has actually declined in recent months. The recent contraction of this aggregate has tended to offset the influence on the base of the large decline in Treasury deposits at the Federal Reserve. These deposits have declined from $3 billion in late June to only $0.2 billion in the week ending September 12. The prime bank loan rate is now quoted at a record level of 10 percent at a number of commercial banks. This rate compares with a peak of 8-1/2 percent in 1969-1970. Despite this latest change, the prime rate remains 50 basis points below the four- to six-month commercial paper rate. In addition the cost of bank funds through the issuance of 90-day large CD's is nearly 11 percent and is slightly over 11 percent for 90-day Eurodollars. The effective cost of these funds is even higher after reserve requirements are taken into account. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: September 21, 1973 MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 04 MILLIONS 102 — SEP. 100 98 96 94 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 H 28 11 25 9 23 6 20 4 16 1 15 29 12 26 1973 1972 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGs SEPTEMBER 19. 1973 USES OF MONETARY BASE ARE MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND NONMEMBER BANKS. ADJUSTED FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN DEPOSITS. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE BASE SEE THE AUGUST 1968 •’REVIEW" OF THIS BANK. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , 9/20/72 1/17/73 2/21/73 3/21/73 9.2 9. 9 10.0 9.8 9.3 9.4 8.5 8. 1 8. 1 8.8 8.8 8. 1 8.4 7.2 6.8 12.2 11.0 9.5 9.6 8.0 7. 4 9.5 8. 1 8.6 6.9 6.4 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGs 4/18/73 5/16/73 6/20/73 7/18/73 7. 1 8.0 6. 1 5.7 7.7 5.4 5.0 5.2 4.7 2.3 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGs 2/21/73 3/21/73 4/18/73 5/16/73 6/20/73 7/18/73 8/22/73 9/19/73 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MULTIPLIERS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT*/ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO RATIO 2.9 2.8 MULTIPLIER 2.7 2.6 2.5 AUG. 2.615 2.604 2.605 2.4 2.577 2.589 2.61 1 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 12, 1973 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILL TONS OF DOLLARS 94 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES ___OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING - SEPTEMBER 19, 1973 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: - JUL. JUN. 18, 20, 92 90 1973 -12.8 1973 -2.4 FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT ---- APR. MAR. 68 86 84 82 !97? AUG. MILLIONS 15 I I I I I I 5 19 2 10 30 13 27 U 25 0 22 0 20 3 17 31 14 20 14 29 11 25 9 23 0 20 4 10 I 4L o 15 29 12 20 1973 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 19, 1973 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml) / MONETARY BASE. 2/ DEFINED TO INCLUDE HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES, LOANS, FLOAT AND "OTHER’’ ASSETS, ADJUSTED FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT CHANGES AND CHANGES IN REQUIREMENTS DUE TO SHIFTS IN DEp6s(TS AMONG CLASSES OF BANKS. DATA ARE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 215 203.7 204.8 205. 2 203.3 203.7 203.8 210 205 200 195 5 IS 2 16 30 13 27 II 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 14 28 II FEB MAR 25 S 23 6 20 5 28 12 26 APR 1972 1973 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 12, 1973 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 9/13/72 1/10/73 2/14/73 3/14/73 4/11/73 2.0 3.3 6.9 7.8 6.0 4.9 2.0 7.2 8.2 6.0 4.8 11.5 11.5 7.9 6.0 5/9/73 6/13/73 7/11/73 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/14/73 3/14/73 4/11/73 5/ 9/73 6/13/73 7/11/73 8/15/73 9/12/73 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4.8 5.0 4.0 4.3 5.7 6.3 5.5 4.9 -0.3 -0.8 0.8 4. 1 5.2 4.2 3.4 14.0 8.4 6.0 4.3 2.4 -1.4 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILL-IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 275 BILLIONS 263.6 270 263.0 263.7 263.8 265 260 255 250 5 19 2 16 90 13 27 11 25 6 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 26 14 26 11 FEB SEP OCT 1972 MAR 25 • 23 6 20 4 16 JUN APR JUL 1 15 20 12 26 1973 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 12, 1973 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 9/13/72 1/10/73 2/14/73 3/14/73 4/11/73 5.8 6. 1 5.3 5.7 6.7 7.0 6.3 5.8 0.9 0.8 2.5 5.0 5.8 4.8 4.3 4. 1 5.5 8.0 8.3 6.7 5.8 4.4 8.0 8.4 6.5 5.4 11.5 11.0 7.8 6.4 5/9/73 6/13/73 7/11/73 4.3 2.9 0.0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/14/73 3/14/73 4/11/73 5/ 9/73 6/13/73 7/11/73 8/15/73 9/12/73 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 12.2 7.7 5.9 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS lilMlili BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 = 350 E 340 1 TOTAL 330 TIME DEPOSI TS 1 i MUM 320 S E E 300 300 E 200 290 E 280 280 | 260 NET TIME DEPOSI lllllllll 270 3S 270 rs* ~ 200 1 1 1 _LLLL -1 Lb 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 16 30 13 27 11 25 6 22 6 20 1 1 1 1 5 19 2 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1J.-LL 3 17 JAN 111 31 ..111. 1 1 1 14 26 14 24 11 FEB MAR APR i i 1 lilt • 23 4 20 MAY JUN 23 -L1.-L IIH J_Lu 4 14 1 13 2* 12 24 JUL AUG SEP 1973 1972 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 12, 1973 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. W NET TIME DEPOSITS ARE DEFINED AS> SAVINGS DEPOSITS, TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS Tl» CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 4100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS. NET TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt 9/13/72 1/10/73 2/14/73 3/14/73 4/11/73 5/9/73 8/13/73 11.6 11.1 10.7 10.8 10.6 10. 1 10.0 10.4 8.8 8.7 9.3 9.3 8.6 8.8 9.4 8.4 9.4 9.3 8.5 8.7 9.4 9.8 9.6 8.5 8.8 9.6 10.2 8.5 8.9 9.8 7.3 8.2 9.5 7.6 9.6 7/11/73 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/M/73 3/14/73 4/11/73 5/ 9/73 6/13/73 7/11/73 8/15/73 9/12/73 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11.8 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK PLUS TIME DEPOSITS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 630 620 610 600 MONEY STOCK PLUS TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS = 590 ■= 580 5 = II 25 9 22 6 20 3 17 31 SEP OCT 1972 14 2* FEB 14 29 MAR I 23 9 23 = 9 20 4 JUN APR 530 520 = 21« 90 19 27 540 = 19 550 = S 560 5 MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS 570 510 JUL 19 3 29 12 29 1973 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 12, 1973 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. ** M* IS DEFINED AS: CURRENCY. DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (SEE PAGE 6). MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS IM2) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING. 9/13/72 1/10/73 2/14/73 3/14/73 4/11/73 5/9/73 6/13/73 7/11/73 8.7 8.6 8. 1 8.3 8.7 8.6 8.2 8. 1 4.9 4.9 6.0 7.3 7.3 6.9 6.9 6.3 7.5 8.7 8.4 7.7 7.6 7,3 8.9 8.5 7.7 7.6 10.8 9.7 8.3 8. 1 9.6 7.9 7.7 5.9 6.3 5.8 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGs 2/14/73 3/14/73 4/11/73 5/ 9/73 6/13/73 7/11/73 8/15/73 9/12/73 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS WEDNESDAY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 70 ----------------------- ------- S IS Z 16 30 19 Z7 II Z3 « ZZ 6 ZO 3 17 31 14 Z« 14 Z6 FEB I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------- ------------- ---------- 70 ZS B 23 6 ZO 4 16 JUN MAR JUL 1 15 ZB 1Z 26 1873 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING, SEPTEMBER 12, 1973 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis * •'«.000 Ofl MORE BY LARGE MONEY AND TIME DEPOSIT DATA 1973 JULY AUG. SEP. 4 1 1 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT BILLIONS NET TIME DEPOS1TS * MZ m 63. 1 63.9 64.4 65.4 65.5 66.2 67.3 67.4 67.6 67. 1 67.0 283.0 282.4 283.2 283.4 284.6 285.5 285.9 287.2 287.3 288.3 288.3 547.4 546.8 548.0 547.0 548.4 549. 1 550.3 552. 1 550.2 552.0 552.2 * SEE FOOTNOTE PAGE 6. 3e* SEE FOOTNOTE PAGE 7. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST LOUIS MEMBER BANK DEPOSiTS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS (CREDIT PROXY ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 455 445 435 CREDIT PROXY ADJUSTED 1/ 425 415 405 CREDIT PROXY 395 385 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 14 28 11 1972 25 9 23 6 20 1973 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 12, 4 18 1 15 29 12 26 ' 1973 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.9 RELEASE. 1/ INCLUDES MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS, BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER, EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S. BANKS, AND CERTAIN OTHER NONDEPOSIT SOURCES. 1211 BILLIONS CREDIT -ER.QXY , AUG. SEP. 8 15 22 29 5 12 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CREDIT PROXY ADJUSTED 435.0 437.8 437.7 435.7 437.8 439.7 441.5 445. 1 444.9 443.2 445. 1 446.6 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING SEPTEMBER 12, 1973 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: CREDIT CREDIT PROXY PROXY ADJUSTED JUL. JUN. MAY APR. MAR. FEB. SEP. 11, 13, 9. 1 1 , 14, 14, 13, 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1972 10. 1 10.8 10.8 10.7 12.0 13.8 12.8 11.9 12.4 12.2 12.0 13. 1 14.9 13.4 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY* PERCENT 9,5 ---- PERCENT ----- 9.5 CORPORATE AAA BONDS THREE-MONTH TREASURY BILL MARKET YIELD BONDS MK DISCOUNT RATE 5 29 13 27 10 24 4 16 JUL AUG OCT NOV 6 22 3 19 2 JAN FEB 16 2 16 SO 13 27 11 APR 25 6 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 26 MAY LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 21, 1973 1973 JULY AUG. SEP. 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 S 28 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS 3-MONTH TREASURY BILLS 3-5 YEAR GOVERNMENT SECURITIES LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MUNICIPAL BONDS 9BK 7.41 7.44 7.45 7.48 7.53 7.61 7.71 7.77 7.73 7.64 7.63 7.65 7.94 7.78 8.03 8.17 8.30 8.70 8.86 8.71 8.62 8.80 8.94 8.64 7.15 7.29 7.48 7.76 8.02 8. 16 7.80 7.50 7.35 7.27 7.45 7. 18 6.44 6.43 6.50 6.64 6.90 6.97 6.83 6.74 6.62 6.45 6.52 6.45 5.34 5.40 5.37 5.48 5.59 5.58 5.47 5.44 5.34 5. 18 5. 18 N. A. * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. get BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPA. BONDS, THURSDAY DATA. N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SELECTED SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 11.0 r- PERCENT 11.0 — FEDERAL FUNDS RATE PRIME BANK LOAN RATE COMMERCIAL PAPER I 1 I 1 I I I 1 I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 4 IS JUL AUG 1 15 29 13 27 SEP OCT 1972 10 24 NOV S 22 DEC 3 19 2 IS JAN FEB 2 IS 30 13 27 MAR APR 11 23 MAY 1973 S 22 JUN S 20 3 17 31 JUL AUG 14 28 SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 21, 1973 1973 JULY AUG. SEP. 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 X 28 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 MONTH FEDERAL FUNDS ** PRIME BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES 90 DAY CD'Saw 8.75 8.90 9. 15 9.60 9.86 10.05 10.25 10.25 10.45 10.38 10.48 10.50 10.21 9.52 10.22 10.58 10.57 10.39 10.39 10.52 10.79 10.79 10.74 10.80 8.94 9.00 9.05 9.50 9.85 10.15 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.35 10.50 8.67 9.03 9.36 9.85 10.14 10.52 10.81 10.71 10.93 10.93 10.90 10.97 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. *23 FEDERAL FUNDS AND CD RATES ARE SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATES SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.9 RELEASE. CD DATA ARE SECONDARY MARKET RATES. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS ALL MEMBER BANKS IN THE NATION billions of AVERAGES OF DAILY dollars 1973 AUG. FIGURES billions of dollars MI LL IQNS 15 1916 2135 2558 2362 1487 BORROWINGS I I I I 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 6 ZO 8 22 3 17 31 14 28 FEB 14 Z8 11 25 9 23 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 12- 26 MAR 1973 1972 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 19, 1973 BUSINESS LOANS ( COMMERCIAL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND INDUSTRIAL ) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS T1 2 ~ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE — AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING _ SEPTEMBER 12, 1973 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: BUS I NESS BUS I NESS LOANS LOANS ADJUSTED 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1972 JUL. — JUN. _ MAY — MAR. __ SEP. 110 108 -BUSINESS LOANS ADJUSTED 106 1/ 23.2 19.8 26.2 21.6 21.2 104 21.0 22.4 102 27.0 100 23.9 28.6 26.0 98 — 96 94 MILLIONS 92 BUS I NESS LOANS, BUSINESS LOANS LOANS adjusted; 90 88 86 84 I I I N I I I I I I I I I II 5 19 Z 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 14 28 11 25 9 23 1 6 20 JUN 15 29 12 28 JUL 1973 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 12, 1973 i7 INCLUDES LOANS SOLD OUTRIGHT BY COMMERCIAL BANKS TO OWN SUBSIDIARIES, FOREIGN BRANCHES, HOLDING COMPANIES, AND OTHER AFFILIATES. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis