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F/A//iA^cr//ii. o/i r/i Week ending: September 15,1982 SEP £ 0 1982 ^ Although interest on securities of similar maturity " generally move in the same direction in response to market forces, differences between rates may develop as a result of investors' perceptions of the financial strength of the issuers. For example, corporate Aaa bonds carry lower market rates than corporate Baa bonds because their issuers are rated as better credit risks; Treasury securities have lower yields than corporate securities of similar maturity because the federal government has the power to raise revenue through taxation. The recent pattern in long- and short-term interest rates evinces a greater preference for financial strength on the part of investors. The table below indicates that the interest rate spreads between private and Treasury issues of similar maturity, and between corporate Baa and Aaa bonds, have all increased since last year. For example, the spread between corporate Aaa bonds and long-term Treasury securities has increased from 91 to 105 basis points. The largest increase occurred in the spread between corporate Baa and Aaa bonds, which has nearly doubled. —Donald M. Brown Interest Rate Spreads* (averages of weekly data) Four-week periods 8/28/81 9/18/81 8/27/82 9/17/82 91 105 Corporate Baa bonds less corporate Aaa bonds 138 261 90-day CDs less 3-month Treasury bills 229 237 4-month commercial paper less 3-month Treasury bills 136 238 Rate Spreads Corporate Aaa bonds less long-term Treasury securities ♦Differences in basis points. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: September 17, 1982 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 182 BILLIONS 180 179.4 179.7 179.7 179.3 180.3 180.0 — AUG. I 15 29 12 26 9 23 7 30 13 27 10 24 10 24 JAN FEB 21 OCT NOV LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 15, 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 I I 25 1982 THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF: (I) RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS, (2) CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS), AND (3) AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES. THE MAJOR SOURCE OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAIL ABLE FROM THIS BANK. ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 9/16/81 12/16/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/17/82 3/17/82 4/14/82 5/12/82 6/16/82 7/14/82 6.6 8.3 9.5 7.6 7.4 7.3 8.9 10.3 7.8 7.5 7.4 12.2 8.3 7.8 7.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 3.6 4.6 6.7 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/17/82 3/17/82 4/14/82 5/12/82 6/16/82 7/14/82 8/18/82 9/15/82 6.6 6.7 6.6 7.2 7.9 7. 1 7.0 7.0 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9.5 8.7 9.3 9.9 8.5 8.3 8. 1 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS ADJUSTED RESERVES AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 52 ------------- 1---------- 1-------- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -------------------------------- 52 billions 49.0 50.0 50.3 J-LJ-.1 5 JUL AUG SEP OCT 1981 NOV DEC JAN FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 8. MAR APR 19 MAY 1982 2 16 30 JUN 14 28 JUL II 25 8 22 AUG 1982 ‘RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS PLUS CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION) LESS CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC. ADJUSTED RESERVES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 9/9/81 12/9/81 2/10/82 3/10/82 4. 1 6.5 5.2 6.2 6.3 5.7 5.3 5.7 14.3 10. 1 10.8 10.0 8.6 7.7 8.0 8.4 10.3 9.2 7.4 6.3 7.0 5.5 5.9 4.5 3.9 5.0 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 4/7/82 5/5/82 6/9/82 7/7/82 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/10/82 3/10/82 4/ 7/82 5/ 5/82 6/ 9/82 7/ 7/82 8/11/82 9/ 8/82 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9.9 6.7 5.4 6.4 3.6 3. 1 4.8 1 .2 4.1 6.0 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 4 MONEY STOCK ( Ml ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 470 E-------- 1-------- 1 198£ Z AUG. -SEP. Z / A" i 450 E In n 455 453.5 453.6 454.8 456.2 456.9 461.2 k- — 4 11 18 25 1 8 - BIILl.ONS 1111 450 445 440 435 430 425 E 111 ■ 420 =A, M il 425 /V T TTTT 430 TTTT TTTT 435 TTTT 440 /\ A TTTT h J in 445 TTTT TTTT 460 = L U L L .1111 465 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 470 s _LLLL -LLL I 15 29 12 26 JUL AUG i 1111 _LLL 9 23 7 21 SEP OCT 1981 111 1 II 1 .in i- -LLL 111 2 16 50 13 27 DEC JAN 10 24 FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 8, 1 1 1 MAR 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 APR in ■LLl- 1 1.1 L 16 30 14 26 11 21 10 24 MAY 1982 JUN JUL 25 AUG 8 22 SEP 1982 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. Ml CONSISTS OF CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC PLUS COMMERCIAL BANK DEMAND DEPOSITS HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC (EXCLUDING THOSE HELD BY FOREIGN BANKS AND OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS) AND OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS OF ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS PLUS TRAVELERS' CHECKS. MONEY STOCK ( Ml ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 9/9/81 12/9/81 2/10/82 3/10/82 4/7/82 9.6 7.9 7.3 7.4 6.8 5.3 5.3 6. 1 9.4 8.0 8.0 7.0 4.8 4.9 6.0 1.3 3.4 3.2 1 .0 1 .8 3.6 5.8 4.6 1.5 2.4 4.3 5.0 0.8 2. 1 4.4 5/5/82 6/9/82 -2.2 0.5 3.7 -0.8 4.0 7/7/82 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/10/82 3/10/82 4/ 7/82 5/ 5/82 6/ 9/82 7/ 7/82 8/11/82 9/ 8/82 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9.9 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 420 MONEY MULTIPLIER iy CURRENCY COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK 2/ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO Ml MULTIPLIER I I I I LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 8, 1982 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF —the four Weeks ending SEPTEMBER 8, 1982 FROM - THE FOUR WElliKS ENDING: -----JUL. JUN. - MAY APR. -----MAR. DEC. - SEP. 1982 1982 1982 CURRENCY 1982 BILLIONS 29! 6 29.7 30!0 30 !o I I I I I I I I I I I I JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 8, FEB 1982 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml ) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE 2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. 5 LOUIS 6 YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 22.0 22.0 21 .0 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 18.0 18.0 90 DAY CD’S PR ME BANK LOAN RATE 17.0 16.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 I I .0 COMMERCIAL PAPER 10.0 9.0 8.0 I I I I 3 17 31 14 AUG 28 II I 25 SEP 15 29 1 i 26 FEB 12 26 9 23 7 0 21 AUG MAR SEP 1982 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: 1982 JULY AUG. SEP. 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 * 24 90 DAY CD’S 15.21 14.80 13.96 12.58 12.01 11.43 11.63 9.77 9.73 10.42 10.58 10.94 PRIME COMMERC1AL PAPER *** PRIME BANKERS’ ACCEPTANCES 14.68 14.24 13.46 12.05 12.01 11.33 11.50 9.68 9.48 10.48 10.72 11.02 14.73 14. 15 13.50 12.03 11.71 11.23 11.23 9.66 9.59 10. 18 10.38 10.73 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. *# BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, *## DATA ARE 4-MONTH COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES. N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CORPORATE Aaa BONDS 15.07 14.96 14.65 14.32 14.39 14.22 14.14 13.48 13. 15 13.20 13.04 13.07 SEPTEMBER 17. CORPORATE Baa BONDS 16.95 16.88 16.82 16.70 16.78 16.69 16.71 16.26 15.86 15.73 15.63 15.71 1982 MUNICIPAL BONDS #* 12.58 12.47 12.36 12.01 11.97 11.87 11.86 10.82 10.38 10.74 10.75 N. A. THURSDAY DATA. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SELECTED INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 21 .0 r— PERCENT —1 21.0 20.0 19.0 5-YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 14.0 12.0 SCOUNT RATE 1 1 .0 11.0 3-M TREASU I I I I 3 17 31 14 28 II 25 9 23 I NOV 15 29 12 26 12 26 2 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: 1982 JULY AUG. SEP. 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 * 24 16 30 FEDERAL FUNDS ** 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL 6-MONTH TREASURY B1LL ### 14.81 14.47 13. 18 12.14 11.02 11.15 10.90 10.11 9.04 10. 15 10.14 10.27 12.81 12.23 1 1 .71 10.64 10.51 9.80 9.70 7.88 7.50 8.31 8.34 8.05 13.42 12.98 11.97 11.44 11.38 10.67 10.94 9.82 8.99 9.75 9.61 9.70 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL 12.86 12.50 12.06 11.29 11.50 11.13 11.06 9.71 9.68 10. 12 10.09 10.12 SEPTEMBER 17, 5-YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES 14.73 14.48 14.10 13.66 13.89 13.62 13.59 12.53 12.38 12.54 12.43 12.49 27 10 2A e^“g^“vI“yoR?°hd:y5srI^la4Ir than oate shown- C0MPUTED BY ™E FEDERAL RESERVE BANK 0E ST' PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. 7 1982 LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES 13.85 13.68 13.40 13.11 13.30 13.08 13.02 12. 17 12.04 12. 16 12.03 12.03 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 DEC LOUIS 8 TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS^ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 335 ------------- 1---------- 1----- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------------------------------- 335 BILUflMS _ AUG. _ SEP. 319.8 319.9 320.8 322. I 322.5 326.8 I I I I 30 OCT 13 27 JAN NOV LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 8, 10 24 5 10 24 APR FEB 19 2 16 30 M 28 II 25 8 22 MAY 1982 1/ DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 9/9/81 12/9/81 2/10/82 3/10/82 9.7 7.9 7.6 5.9 3.0 3.6 5.0 -0.6 1.6 0.9 -2.1 -0.4 2.0 4.2 2.2 -1 .8 0. 1 2.8 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING*. 4/7/82 5/5/82 6/9/82 7/7/82 2.2 -3.0 -0.4 2.9 -6.8 -2.2 2.2 -2.9 3.4 12.0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/10/82 3/10/82 4/ 7/82 5/ 5/82 6/ 9/82 7/ 7/82 8/11/82 9/ 8/82 10.9 8.6 7.7 7.5 6.4 4.4 4.6 5.7 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS TOTAL TIME DEPOSITSi/ ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 860 BILLIONS 850 841.5 840.2 842.5 843.5 844. 1 840 830 820 810 800 790 780 770 760 750 740 730 720 710 I I I I 0 JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 8, FEB 1982 1/ SAVINGS DEPOSITS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS PLUS LARGE TIME DEPOSITS TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 9/9/81 12/9/81 2/10/82 9.5 12. 1 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.5 14.5 20.7 20.4 19.4 19. 1 19.4 17.5 3/10/82 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 4/7/82 5/5/82 6/9/82 7/7/82 18.2 18. 1 18.9 16.4 17.4 18.6 15.7 19.5 15.2 14.0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/10/82 3/10/82 4/ 7/82 5/ 5/82 6/ 9/82 7/ 7/82 8/11/82 9/ 8/82 5.5 7.7 9.3 10.5 11.3 11.9 12.8 12.3 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 20.4 19.1 18.8 19.2 17. 1 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 9 10 SMALL TIME DEPOSITS^ COMMERCIAL BANK SAVINGS DEPOSITS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 420 =---------- 1---------- 1------------- 1---------- — 350 330 310 23.9 23.4 22.3 23.7 24.6 19.5 19.5 )EPOS TS l l l l J ill SMALL TIME - 19 32 AUG. SEP. i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 8, i .n i -li-L _LLL 4 Is 408.8 408.2 410.2 1111 l-i-ii In. I, 170 360 350 340 320 310 0 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 185 TTTT TTTT TTTT 175 370 1982 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 180 380 330 406.C 48?:1 25 1 8 400 390 - si 1 1 i B LLIO _______ 320 1982 1982 1982 1982 1982 198! 1981 _§l 340 7, 9, 5, 7, 10, 9. 9, U LL 360 JUL. JUN. MAY APR. MAR. DEC. SEP FT mr 370 — = = — = = TTTT 380 = 410 = TTTT 390 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS END 1NC SEPTEMBER 8, 1982 FRC THE FOUR WEliKS END 1 NC T T T TTTT TTTT 400 = = TTTT 410 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 420 i IS!12 = 25 155.9 156.1 156.C |55.| _ 8 AUG. BILLIO MS 156.6 4 11 18 SEP. 180 175 170 SAV1NGS DEP )S 1 TS E TTTT 165 "" 160 z E 0 TTTT TTTT 130 COM ’OUNDE D ANNU \L RAT ES the four Weeks endinc SEPTEMBER 8, 1982 FRC M ~THE FOUR WEEKS END 1NC = _ 145 J ill 155 150 165 z - z_ JUL. 7, z JUN. 9, - MAY 5, —APR. 7, = MAR. 10, = DEC. 9, - SEP. 9, *1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 15 29 JUL 12 26 AUG 1982 -10.4 1982 -10.7 1982 -7.7 1982 -6.6 1982 -4.1 1981 -0.4 1981 -2.0 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 9 23 SEP 7 21 OCT = 145 140 135 l 130 111 4 18 NOV llll 1 1 1 DEC JAN 2 16 30 13 1 1 1 27 10 24 FEB llll 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 24 MAR 1981 llll 1 1 1 JUN JUL 2 MAY 16 30 14 1 1 1 28 II AUG s -LILL 25 8 22 SEP 1982 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 8, 1/ COMMERCIAL BANK TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 150 1982 IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN *100,000. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 0 f BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.5 r------------,---------- ,------ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ---------------------------- ^ 4.5 MILLIONS AUG. I 2 16 30 13 27 JAN 10 24 10 24 7 21 30 M 28 II 25 8 22 FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 15, 1982 BUSINESS LOANS 17 (COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS 2/ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 220 r------------1---------- 1-----Z — Z Z" BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -------- ----- =1 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING SEPTEMBER 8, 1982 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: * Z MAY APR. 7 DEC. IT SEP. 9 9 1982 1982 15.5 15.4 17.4 15.0 MILLIONS AUG. SEP. 4 1 213,237 213,201 212,864 214,674 214,939 Ml......................... I I I I 2 OCT 16 30 13 27 10 24 10 24 NOV LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 8, 1982 1/ BUSINESS LOANS INCLUDE BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES AND COMMERCIAL PAPER. 2/ BANKS WITH DOMESTIC ASSETS OF $750 MILLION OR MORE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 11 220 12 LARGE TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 290 BILLIONS 285 280 275 270 265 260 255 250 245 240 235 230 1981 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING, SEPTEMBER 8. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ 1982 H.6 RELEASE. TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF *100,000 OR MORE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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