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Week ending: September 15r 1976 LIBRARY DEC 2 6 197? http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Over the last 6 months the monetary base, the prime determinant of the growth of the money stock (Ml), has increased at an annual rate of 7.2 percent, while Ml has increased at a 6 percent annual rate. Over the previous 6 months, however, the growth rates of the base and money stock were much more diverse — the base increased at approximately the same rate as recently, 6.9 percent, while money expanded at only a 2.1 percent rate. The convergence of the growth rates of the base and Ml in the most recent period is primarily attributable to the fact that more of the increase in the monetary base has been used to support demand deposits rather than time deposits and currency. The monetary base can be used either as currency or as reserves to support bank deposits (time and demand deposits). The allocation of a given increase in the monetary base between these uses affects the growth of the money stock (Ml). While a one dollar increase in the base can support only a one dollar increase in currency, the same dollar increase in the base used as bank reserves could support a multiple expansion in bank deposits. Therefore, the larger the proportion of a given increase in the monetary base that is used as currency, the smaller will be the resulting increase in the money stock. In addition, the growth of the money stock resulting from an increase in the monetary base is also reduced when more of the increase in the base is used as reserves to support time deposits (not a component of Ml), leaving a smaller proportion of the increase in the base available to support demand deposits. Over the last 6 months demand deposits have increased at a 4.8 percent rate, while over the previous 6 months they declined at a 0.3 percent rate. In contrast, the growth of total time deposits (net time deposits and large CDs) over the last 6 months slowed to a 6.5 percent rate from the 10 percent rate which prevailed during the preceding 6 months. The rate of growth of currency remained fairly stable over the two periods: 9.2 percent in the most recent period, compared to 9.4 percent in the previous 6-month period. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: September 17, 1976 MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY AOJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ----- ---------- ------------- 128 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS \28 ------------ 1---------- 1— 1976 AUG. MILLIONS 11 125.Q10 I 1 1 I I 11 1 1 1m * It 90 18 n 10 24 AUG SEP • JAN JOL FEB AUG LATEST DATA fLOTTED WEEK EhClNQi SEPTEMBER 15, 1976 SOURCES OF THE MONETARY BASE ARE r'UTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DE IS AVAILABLE AS REPRINT NO. 31 FROM FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST. LOUIS. MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 9/17/75 12/17/75 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt 2/1B/76 5/17/76 4/14/76 5/12/76 6/16/76 7/14/76 9.4 10.0 9.7 8.1 7.6 7.9 8.5 8.8 6.9 6.6 7.2 10.0 7.2 6.8 7.4 5*0 b*5 6.6 3.6 5.7 7.7 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGi 2/1S/76 3/17/76 4/14/76 5/12/76 S/1S/76 7/14/76 S/18/76 9/15/76 5.9 6.9 6.6 7.3 7.5 6.9 6.8 7.1 5.6 5.7 6.7 7.2 6.4 6.2 6.7 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 2 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis MULTIPLIER^ ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT2/ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO RATIO MULT PLIER laze. LATEST DATA PLOTTEO WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 8, bat I a 1976 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1,6 --------------- .------------ ,------ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ----- ---------- ------------- 116 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES — Of CHANCE, AVERAGE OF — THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING SEPTEMBER 15, 1970 FROM — THE FOUR WEEKS EN)INGi ” JUL. —JUN. -MAY APR. — MAR. — DEC. SEP. 14, 1976 16, 1976 12, 1976 14, 1976 17 ------17 1975 17 1975 8.2 5.7 6.S 8.0 ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT lSZfi. MILLIONS J I 1 I I I I I I I I 2 1« 30 , 3 27 to 24 AUC SEP • 22 3 19 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 10 24 JAN FEB 7 21 5 19 2 18 30 14 28 11 25 APR MAY 1976 JUL 8 22 AUG LATEST DATA PLOTTEO WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 15. 1976 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml ) / MONETARY BASE. 2/ FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT CONSISTS OF FEDERAL RESERVE HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES LOANS El oat AND OTHER ASSETS. ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT tSCOMPUTED BY SUBTRACtING TREASURY DEPOSITS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS FROM THIS SERIES.'aNDADJUSTING THESERIES FORRE SERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE &AME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BAMCS WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY? DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THISBANK* http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 720 BILLIONS 715 710.3 712.0 710 705 - 700 680 675 670 665 660 655 650 645 640 2 16 90 15 27 10 24 AUG 6 22 5 19 5 17 31 SEP 14 26 It 23 10 24 JAN FEB 7 21 5 19 APR MAY 1976 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 JUN JUL AUG 6 22 SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt SEPTEMBER 8, 1976 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.fl RELEASE. MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING, 9/10/75 12/10/75 8.2 8.9 8.9 9.9 9.7 9.3 9.7 9.6 10.7 10.2 11.6 11.0 10.2 10.6 10.5 2/11/76 3/10/76 4/7/76 5/5/76 6/9/76 7/7/76 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING, 2/11/76 3/10/76 4/ 7/76 5/ 5/76 6/ 9/76 7/ 7/76 8/11/76 9/ 8/76 4 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10.9 13.1 11.6 10.5 11.0 10.7 13.1 11.2 9.9 10.6 10.4 12.3 10.2 11.0 10.7 7.1 9.2 9.2 9.7 9.6 11.4 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 0 MONEY STOCK ( Ml ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 305.5 306.3 307.3 304.1 2 16 30 19 2T 10 24 AUG « 22 3 19 3 17 31 SEP 14 26 11 23 10 24 JAN 7 21 3 It 2 1* 30 14 26 11 23 FEB JUL I 22 AUG LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING, SEPTEMBER B, 197S CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. THE MONEY STOCK CONSISTS OF DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY Al« COIN HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC. • MONEY STOCK (Ml ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING, 9/10/75 12/10/75 2/11/76 3/10/76 6.1 10.7 8.5 6.3 6.9 6.1 12.7 9.0 6.2 6.9 6.0 4/7/76 5/5/76 6/9/76 0.8 3.7 3.2 3.9 3.1 7/7/76 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING, 2/11/76 3/10/76 4/ 7/76 5/ 5/76 6/ 9/76 7/ 7/76 8/11/76 9/ 8/76 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1.2 2.1 2.5 4.5 4.3 3.7 4.2 4.0 2.7 3.4 6.4 5.8 4.7 5.3 4.9 10.7 6.5 7.2 6.1 5.7 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 YI ELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 10,5 r- PERCENT —i 10.5 - L11.L M IL N IL 9.5 TTTT 10.0 ******* TTTT . \ 1111 ) V ■■ r' MUNIC IPAL BONDS 666 i F— "N v..__ J y r T\ V TTTT * Y TTTT 1 90 DAY CD ' S 60881 - 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.0 4.0 5» 111 .1111 ALL -11 LI- JJLL -111. 1 1 1.1. 1 LL 1 1 1 _LLLL 111 4 IS JUL I IS 29 12 26 10 24 AUG SEP OCT 1975 7 21 NOV 5 19 DEC 2 16 30 IS 27 t2 26 9 23 JAN FEB MAR APR 7 21 MAY 1976 1 1 .1 4 IS JUN hit 111. 11 r 2 16 SO 13 27 10 24 JUL AUG SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK EKMNG. SEPTEMBER 17, 1976 1976 JULY AUG. SEP. 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 3 10 17 * 24 90 DAY CD'S 66166 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 MONTH PRIkC BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES CORPORATE Aaa BONDS MUNICIPAL BONDS 686 5.73 5.75 5.58 5.47 5.43 5.36 5.45 5.35 5.35 5.33 5.34 5.35 5.80 5.81 5.65 5.65 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.43 5.45 5.50 5.50 5.69 5.66 5.48 5.47 5.35 5.34 5.34 5.33 5.30 5.28 5.31 5.31 8.63 8.57 8.53 8.55 8.54 8.51 8.48 8.42 8.42 8.41 8.38 8.39 6.87 6.78 6.78 6.76 6.73 6.65 6.60 6.60 6.58 6.52 6.52 N. A. * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. 666 BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA. 68166 SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES OF SECONDARY MARKET RATES FOR THE WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATES SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE. N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE „ . . PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6 6.5 4.5 4.5 0 7.0 - COM CRCIAL PAP El \ - 8.0 7.5 iTTTT 1/ y _____ q -H I 5.0 | 8.5 = M IL 1111 IN I 5.5 - I A jt 6.5 AAA 1 10NDS PR IME BAK K LO AN RATI 7.0 6.0 CO HPORATE TTTT 8.5 7.5 9.5 9.0 9.0 8.0 10.0 0 SELECTED SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 7.5 ------ PERCENT DISCOUNT RATE BILL H TRI IKET Yl iSURY FEDERAL FUWS RATE 4 18 1 15 2# 12 28 10 24 7 21 5 1# NOV DEC 2 18 90 13 27 12 28 FEB MAR # 23 7 21 4 ie MAY JUN 2 ie 30 13 tr 10 24 AUG SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK EWING* SEPTEMBER 17, 1978 1976 JULY 2 9 16 23 30 AUG. 6 13 20 27 SEP. 3 10 17 * 24 FEDERAL FUNDSm 3-MONTH TREASURY BILLS 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL 3-5 YEAR G0VERM4ENT SECURITIES LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 5.58 5.37 5.27 5.30 5.28 5.36 5.25 5.29 5.28 5.28 5.25 5.22 5.36 5.34 5.15 5.23 5.17 5.16 5.17 5.15 5.11 5.09 5.11 5.12 6.08 5.90 5.72 5.84 5.74 5.72 5.65 5.64 5.59 5.56 5.53 5.57 7.36 7.30 7.18 7.26 7.21 7.12 7.06 7.04 6.98 6.9t 6.88 6.88 7.84 T m 81 7.79 7 • 84 7.84 7.82 7.80 7.79 1 ./ti 7.72 7.70 7.69 aafsivEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.9 RELEASE. RATES ON LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT SECURITIES ARE COMPUTED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 NET TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 415 r----------- ,---------- 1----- 1313. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS —---------- ---------- n 415 BILLIONS 405.7 406.9 2 16 90 t9 27 10 14 AUG « 22 9 19 9 17 91 SEP H 26 II 29 10 24 JAN 7 21 5 19 2 16 90 M 26 II 29 FEB JUL 6 22 AUG LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 8. 1976 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. *NET'JA.APE.1ASi SAVINGS DEPOSITS. TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME (JERTtFICATES OF DEPOS IT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 6100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL^BANKS. NET TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING* 9/10/75 12/10/75 2/11/76 3/10/76 4/7/76 5/5/76 6/9/76 7/7/76 13.4 13.2 13.9 14.2 12.6 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.5 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING. 2/11/76 3/10/76 4/ 7/76 5/ 5/76 6/ 9/76 7/ 7/76 8/11/76 9/ 8/76 8 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 14.1 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.0 13.9 14.1 14.2 17.4 16. 1 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.9 15.0 14.8 14.7 14.0 13.8 14.1 14.3 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.5 13.8 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BJLLlfltffi 227.1 227.6 225. 1 2 IS SO IS 27 TO 24 AUG 8 22 3 19 S 17 31 SEP 14 28 11 23 10 24 JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK END INSt SEPTEMBER 6, CURRENT DATA APPEAR 7 21 3 19 2 18 SO 14 8 22 FEB 1976 IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 9/10/75 12/10/75 2/11/76 3/10/76 3.9 9.5 7.2 5.0 5.7 4.8 12.0 8.0 5.0 5.9 4.8 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS EN0ING« 4/7/76 5/5/76 10.3 5.7 6.5 5.2 -0.8 2.5 1.8 6/9/76 7/7/76 2.8 1.8 4.4 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt 2/11/78 3/10/76 4/ 7/76 5/ 5/76 6/ 9/76 7/ 7/76 8/11/78 9/ 8/76 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -1.2 -0.3 0.2 2.5 2.4 1.8 2.5 2.3 0.4 1.0 4.6 4.1 3.0 3.8 3.3 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS WEDNESDAY FIGURES NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 85 ------------ ------------------ 2 18 30 13 27 10 24 AUG BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -------------- ---------- 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 SEP 14 26 11 23 10 24 JAN FEB 7 21 3 19 APR MAY 2 16 30 14 26 11 25 JUL 88 6 22 AUG LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGi SEPTEMBER 8. 1976 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. «EKLYArePORTmGCwiIcRaALSBANKSEr°SIT ISSUED IN DOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1976 JULY r 14 21 28 AUG. 4 11 18 25 SEP. 1 8 15 22 29 CERTIFICATES CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OF DEPOSIT NOT SEAS. AOJ. SEAS. ADJ. 69,7 69.2 69.0 68.2 67.3 66.6 66.2 66.0 65.6 65.1 71.5 70.4 69.7 68.2 66.5 65.4 64.4 63.5 62.8 62.2 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS ALL MEMBER BANKS IN THE NATION AVERAGES OF DA ILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 2.0 M AUG. 2 16 SO 13 27 10 14 AUC 6 22 5 19 3 IT 3t 14 28 11 28 10 24 SEP JAN FEB MILLION n 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 26 11 23 APR MAY JUL • 22 AUG LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING* SEPTEMBER 15, 1976 BUSINESS LOANS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 126 ------------------------------ 106 104 102 100 — ( COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS _ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF —THE FOUR *EEKS ENDING - SEPTEMBER 8. 1976 FROM —THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING. . “ JUL. — JUN. - MAY —APR. _ MAR. DEC. 7, 9. 5, 7, 10, 10, 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1975 -2.8 -4.4 -2.6 -6.8 -11.0 -10.4 2 16 30 IS 27 10 24 AUG SEP 6 22 5 16 3 17 31 14 26 II 23 10 24 JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 8, http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FEB 7 21 5 19 APR MAY 2 16 30 14 26 It 23 JUL 6 22 AUG 1976 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 11 MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS (CREDIT PROXY ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING SEPTEMBER 8. 1978 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING* CREDIT CREDIT PROXY -EEQ2CL ADJUSTED, 550 = 540 530 CREDIT PROXY AOJUSTED 1/ 520 510 CREDIT PROXY 500 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 AUG SEP 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 11 23 10 24 JAN FEB 7 21 5 19 CREDIT PfiQXY CREDIT PROXY ADJUSTED 514.1 513.7 522.8 523.0 513,5 521.4 2 16 30 14 28 II 25 JUL AUG 490 470 8 22 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING* SEPTEMBER 8, 1976 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.9 RELEASE. 1/ INCLUDES MEMBER BANK OEPOSITS, BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER, EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S. BANKS, AND CERTAIN OTHER NONDEPOSIT SOURCES. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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