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ST F//V/I/VC//1L LJ X\ TX\ Week ending: September 12, 1979 ' fDuring the past week most major money market banks raised the prime commercial loan rate to 12.75 percent. This increase is the fourth since late July. These recent increases in the prime rate reflect the combined effects of the rising cost of funds to banks and the strong demand for business loans. Interest rates on large negotiable certificates of deposit (CDs), a primary source of funds for commercial banks, have risen sharply. For example, the interest rate on 90 day CDs has risen to 11.84 percent in the week ending September 14. Because member banks are required to hold reserves against these funds, the effective cost of these deposits to member banks averaged 12.87 percent in the most recent week. In contrast, the effective cost of this source of funds was 11.18 percent during the last week of July. The continued strength in business demand for short-term credit is evident in the recent rapid growth of both business loans and commercial paper outstanding. Cannercial and industrial loans by large weekly reporting banks have grown at about a 26 percent annual rate over the last two months and commercial paper issued by non-financial corporations continues to increase at a high rate. Since borrowing from banks and borrowing in the commercial paper market are substitute forms of financing for large corporations, the prime rate and the commercial loan rate tend to move together. Since the end of July the four- to sixmonth commercial paper rate has risen about 170 basis points (page 6) while the prime rate has climbed 100 basis points. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve has revised the series on business loans at weekly reporting large commercial banks beginning with January 1979 data. The revision was due to a reclassification of certain categories of loans and had little effect on the levels or growth rates of business loans. Data in this release are on the revised basis. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: September 14, 1979 2 ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS >54 ----- 1------ 1- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS --------- ----- 154 M8.7 149.3 149.6 150.3 150.5 150.7 AUG. I I 11 1 111 I I I I 2 18 30 13 27 11 SEP 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 M 28 M 28 M FEB OCT MAR 25 9 25 8 20 4 JUN APR 18 1 15 29 12 20 JUL LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENOING: SEPTEMBER 12, 1979 rue >n “IlCURR^C? I RASF CONSISTS OF’ C I ) HELD BANK PUBLIC AT IN FEDERAL RESERVE B*«S iiicTpn udnftaryNBC1RCUL$!t I ON (CURRENCYMEMBER BY THERESERVES AND THE THE VAULTS OF COfcMEAciAL BANKS) AND ( 3 ) AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RAT 10 CHANGES. THE MA ior SOURCF OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BAW A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THIS BANK. ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 9/13/78 12/13/78 2/14/79 3/14/79 4/11/79 5/9/79 6/13/79 2.8 6.5 5.2 7.0 7.5 8.5 7.9 5.7 7.9 8.2 9.2 7.4 9.8 9.7 10.7 7.8 8.4 9.8 12. 1 12.9 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING-. 2/14/79 3/14/79 4/11/79 5/ 9/79 6/13/79 7/11/79 8/15/79 9/12/79 8.4 7.6 6.8 7.7 7.0 7.7 7.9 8.4 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5.8 4.8 6.6 5.7 6.9 7.3 8. 1 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MULTIPLIER 1/ ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CRED I T 2/ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO 2.9 RATIO 2.9 MULT IPLIER A V i979 AUC SEF Illl 1 1 1 i i i i ill ill j.111 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 5, 1979 .in ' 4 |:B . 1 \ : 111. 11111111111 11 ii 111 BATJ.C BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 134 - 1------ 1----- 1----“ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R KIES AVERAGE 132 -- OF CHANGE,ArEEKS END 1 4G THE FOUR “ SEPTEMBER 12, 1979 ‘ROM __ THE FOUR WEEKS END IfvIG: \ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 134 132 _ - 130 - 128 126 JUL. 11, 1979 JUN. 13, 1979 -- MAY 9, 1979 _ APR. 11, 1979 MAR. 14, 1979 _ SE p! 13,' 1978 130 AD- USTED =EDERA L RES ERVE :red i t 14. 13.: 9.' 10.. 8.' - 128 ,r~\ J 9. - "S . t 126 - - - 120 I 18 SILL IQ NS. _ 1SZ2 AUG . v A 5T - 5 IB JUL 120 28.S 118 116 Illl 8 llll: 111 2 1 1 1 IS 30 13 27 AUG SEP II OCT 1 II 1 25 8 22 NOV 1 1 1 -LLLL | | | 6 20 DEC 3 17 JAN 31 1 1 1 14 28 FEB 1 1 1 14 28 11 MAR 1978 APR 111.1 25 B 23 MAY SEP .5 12 30! 7 30.7 1 16 11111111 ii 11111 \ 6 20 4 18 1 JUN JUL AUG IS 2fl 12 2 SEP 1979 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 12, 1979 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK ( Ml ) / ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE 2/ FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT CONSISTS OF FEDERAL RESERVE HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES, LOANS, FLOAT AND OTHER ASSETS. ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT IS COMPUTED BY SUBTRACTING TREASURY DEPOSITS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS FROM THIS SERIES. AND ADJUSTING THE SERIES FOR RE SERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES. DATA ARE C0MPUTE6 BY THIS BANK. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 SI run 'IS dO >«V9 3A«3S3d 1V«3<]3d 2‘21 l Cl SCI S' 1 l 2' l l 2'0l A8 £21 221 0'2 l O' l l Q3avd3dd O' l l 801 i -oi 6'8 0‘0l 1 '01 2 ‘6 68 2'2 08 2> 8'2 2'2 £9 2 S rv 22 S' l http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9'2 £’2 9'9 6' S 2'S S> 62/S 62/8 62/fr 62/9 62/2 62/* 62/2 62/2 /6 /8 /2 /9 /S /► /C /2 :ON 10N3 sxaaM anod do aovaaAv bhi oi 82/9/2l 82/9/6 62/2/C 62/2/2 62/9/9 62/Z/S 62/*/* 62/V/2 :9N1QN3 SM33M anod do aovaaAv 'bonvho do saiva IVnNNV aaaNnodwoo () siisodaa awu iaN snid moois A3N0N '3SV313U 9‘H iSd0NU3A09 dO 0UVO8 3H1 Nl «V3ddV VIVO lN3a«nO 6261 'S «39W3id3S :9NI0N3 M33M 0311014 VlVd 1S31V1 6261 das onv nnr Nnr 8261 aav 82 avw 92 aaa IE NvrC 1 H »l 21 avh oaa 02 9 aon 22 9 ioo d3S onv « II 22 Cl PC 91 2 inr 81 S - 1------ 1----=1 0C6 - 0E6 •=-----------L savnoa do sNom suvnoa Q3isnrav a“I“ivnosv3s S3dfl0ld All VO dO S39VH3AV do SNomie ( zw) susodaa ami ibn smd >ioois abnoai f MONEY STOCK ( Ml ) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 385 i II u 1979 “ AUG. 1 8 15 22 29 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 385 i— 1 rn AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1 BILLIONS 372.2 373.5 375.4 374.2 374.2 1 A - A in i M ill A 1111 r A V V 1111 / k IVv r i 1111 m il £V z K1 1 1 1111 JUL AUG 5 10 IB 30 1 11 -HI. 1 111 .11 1 1111 SEP OCT 1978 JAN 13 27 11 25 8 22 NOV 111 6 20 3 17 31 DEC 14 III 111 28 14 28 11 FEB MAR 1111 6111 0 23 20 25 APR MAY 1979 JUN hi 4 18 JUL _LLU_ -LLL I 15 20 12 26 AUG SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 5. 1979 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. THE MONEY STOCK CONSISTS OF DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY AND COIN HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC. MONEY STOCK (Ml ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 9/6/78 12/6/78 2/7/79 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 3/7/79 4/4/79 10.8 8.4 9.0 9.2 9.4 11.4 11.4 10.9 10.8 5/2/79 6/6/79 7/4/79 10.4 10.4 10. 1 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 7/79 7/79 4/79 2/79 6/79 4/79 8/79 5/79 0.9 0.6 0.8 2.9 3. 1 3.9 4.5 4.9 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -2.0 -1 . 1 2.7 3. 1 4. 1 4.9 5.5 0.5 6.8 6.2 7. 1 7.6 8.0 7.5 8.3 8.8 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 6 YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY 13.0 13.0 12.5 12.5 PRIME BANK LOAN RATE 12.0 1 1.5 11.5 11.0 10.5 90 DAY CD'SmeK 10.0 COMMERCIAL PAPER 9.5 CORPORATE AM BONDS 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 MUNICIPAL 6.5 6.0 1 JUL AUG 15 29 13 27 OCT 1976 10 24 NOV 8 22 5 19 2 18 JAN FEB 2 18 30 13 27 II 25 • 22 8 20 3 17 31 14 28 1979 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 14, 1979 90 DAY CD'S wet 1979 JULY 6 13 20 27 AUG. 3 10 17 24 31 SEP. 7 14 21 28 m PR IIC COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 MONTH 9.84 9.94 10. 10 10.29 10.23 10.25 10.53 10.81 11.08 11.36 11.84 9.62 9.75 9.83 9.98 9.98 10.07 10.32 10.56 10.87 11.24 11.69 PR <ME BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES 9.73 9.94 10.03 10. 17 10. 1 1 10.27 10.60 10.82 11.11 1 1.51 11.75 CORPORATE Aaa BOWS MUNICIPAL BONDS M 9. 16 9.17 9. 19 9.23 9.24 9.20 9.20 9.23 9.30 9.34 9.41 6.08 6. 1 1 6. 15 6. 19 6. 14 6. 13 6. 16 6.23 6.36 6.47 N. A. * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. mm BOND BUYER’S AVERAGE OF SECONDARY MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA. WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS INDEX OF 20 SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES MARKET RATES FOR THE WEEK ENDING n a EARUER^THAN^DATES SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.9 RELEASE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 0 SELECTED INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY ' PERCENT 12.0 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE scrr DISCOUNT RATE 3-5 YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES THREE-MONTH TRI iASURY BILL MARKET Yll :ld 4 18 I 15 28 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 18 2 16 2 16 30 13 27 APR 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 MAY LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 14, 1979 1979 JULY 6 13 20 27 AUG. 3 10 17 24 31 SEP. 7 14 X 21 28 FEDERAL FUNDS XX 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL 6-MONTH TREASURY BILL XXX 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL 3-5 YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES 10.42 10.28 10.35 10.63 10.75 10.67 10.80 11.04 11 r 1 6 11.02 11.30 9. 10 9.28 9.31 9.28 9.23 9.40 9.52 9.55 9.74 10.20 10.48 8.87 9. 16 9.26 9.47 9.30 9.32 9.48 9.50 9.65 9.78 10.29 8.70 8.79 8.93 9.00 8.93 8.95 9. 15 9.28 9.41 9.84 9.98 8.71 8.82 8.91 9.00 8.98 8.95 9.02 9. 12 9.30 9.52 9.50 8.74 8.82 8.88 8.90 8.88 8.85 8.87 8.90 8.98 9. 12 9. 12 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. ** S|y|^-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN. m ^2R^L£AI£t£PPEAR IN THE B0ARD ** GOVERNORS1 H.9 RELEASE. NEW ISSUE RATE C0*UTE0 BY THE FE“ RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 7 8 NET TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 560 c----1------ 1- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS --------- ---- =1 560 AUG. 546.6 547.9 548. 5 549.6 551.5 I 1 1 l 5 10 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 SEP OCT 1978 6 22 NOV 6 20 DEC 3 17 31 JAN 14 28 14 20 FEB MAR 11 25 APR 9 23 MAY 1979 6 20 4 JUN JUL 18 I 15 29 12 26 AUG SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 5. 1979 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. * NET TIME DEPOSITS ARE DEFINED AS: SAVINGS DEPOSITS, TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF •100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS. NET TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 9/6/78 12/6/78 2/7/79 3/7/79 4/4/79 5/2/79 6/6/79 7/4/79 6.7 8.7 8.9 10.2 1 1 . 1 1 1.5 9.4 9.4 10.9 1 1.9 12. 1 10.9 12.4 13.2 13.3 12.2 13.3 13.4 15.5 14.9 14.6 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 7/79 7/79 4/79 2/79 6/79 4/79 8/79 5/79 7. 1 7. 1 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.6 9.3 9.6 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4.0 4.5 6.0 6.7 7.9 8.9 9.4 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILL-10148 OF DOLLARS IT T 'T f\ T ill ___ >._ » 1SZ2 - AUG. 1 8 15 22 29 -SEP. 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 280 1—1— BILLIONS 269.3 270.2 271.9 270.4 270.3 272.1 11 LH.JLL. M A /V r\ 1111 \ V 260 A 1 1 V /V - / 1 1111 1 Vi 'M il M il M il ^1 1 1 - ii 11 2 IB 90 AUG 111 111 13 27 11 25 SEP OCT 1978 1111 8 22 in NOV 1111 3 17 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK END INGs SEPTEMBER 5, III 111 111 FEB 31 JAN MAR APR 14 28 14 78 11 1111 -LLL 111. J-LLL _LLL 25 0 23 MAY 1979 6 20 4 JUN JUL 18 1 15 AUG 20 12 26 SEP 1979 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 9/6/78 12/6/78 2/7/79 3/7/79 4/4/79 -1.7 6.7 5.4 6.8 7.2 7.3 12.4 8.4 9.5 9.3 9. 1 12. 1 12.4 11.4 10.8 5/2/79 6/6/79 7/4/79 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 7/79 7/79 4/79 2/79 6/79 4/79 8/79 5/79 -2.6 -2.8 -2.4 0.6 0.8 1.9 2.6 3.0 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -6. 1 -4.6 0.6 0.9 2.4 3.3 3.8 7.0 7.7 7.7 10.7 9.9 8.5 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 9 10 CURRENCY COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 108 billions AUG. SEP. 103.0 103.3 103.5 103.8 103.9 104.8 I I I I 8 22 6 20 3 17 3) SEP OCT 1978 14 28 14 28 11 FEB MAR 25 9 23 APR 1979 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 5, 1979 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. CURRENCY COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 9/6/78 12/6/78 2/7/79 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 3/7/79 4/4/79 5/2/79 6/6/79 7/4/79 6.7 7.9 7.9 9. 1 10. 1 8.4 8.3 9.6 10.8 9.0 10.4 11.7 10.7 12.4 14.4 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 7/79 7/79 4/79 2/79 6/79 4/79 8/79 5/79 10.8 10.4 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.8 10.3 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9.8 9. 1 8.7 8.9 8.8 9.3 10.0 7.5 7.2 8.0 8.0 8.9 9.9 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS ALL MEMBER BANKS IN THE NATION AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3.5 r-----i------ 1--1971 MILLlQN§ SEP. 5 19 JUL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS —------------ ------- Z35 5 2 10 30 13 27 II 25 8 22 AUG SEP OCT NOV 1978 B 20 DEC 3 17 31 14 28 14 28 II 25 9 23 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY 1979 6 20 JUN 4 18 JUL I 15 29 12 26 AUG SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 12. 1979 BUSINESS LOANS (COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 154 WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 154 - 1- - - -1- - - 1- - - 152 150 148 146 144 - 152 “ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RA TES — OF CHANGE. AVERAGE IN G — THE FOUR WEEKS END 0 — SEPTEMBER 5. 1979 FR _ THE FOUR WEEKS ENO1NG: — JUN. — JUL. — MAY APR. “MAR. — DEC. -SEP. 4. 1979 6. 1979 2, 1979 4, 1979 7, 1979 6. 1978 6, 1978 Ls. 148 25.6 24.6 25.3 27.5 24.4 21.2 17.9 - / 142 140 138 136 134 132 130 128 126 - sJ S 19 JUL r*/ MILL 10NS 1SL AUG. 1 8 15 22 29 5 1 II 2 16 AUG 148,625 149,222 148,878 149,484 149,863 151,674 NOV 6 20 DEC FEB JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 5, http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis MAR APR MAY 1979 6 20 JUN 4 18 JUL AUG 144 _ _ 130 SEP 1979 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 11 146 ” “ — 1 i f i 111 i i i i 1 1 l 13 1 17 31_m_ ii i 28.1.1. L nil -LI 1 11ii11111111' Li. 14 28 14 1 15 29 12 26 11 25 9 23 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 SEP OCT 1978 150 142 140 138 136 134 132 128 126 0 12 CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS JILL IONS OF DOLLARS 06 ----- 1-------1--- WEDNESDAY FIGURES NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK END INGt SEPTEMBER 5, 1979 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF *100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS