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/^//VA /VC/>A L Z7/1 7"A Week ending: September 11, 1974 library JUN 0 8 1979 From the four weeks ended in early September of last year to the most recent four weeks, the money stock has expanded about 5.5 percent. However, since the money stock expanded at a much faster rate on average over the first eight months of 1973, the longer-term growth rate of money which has prevailed since early 1970 has been reduced only slightly over the past year. The money stock chart on page 5 shows a trend line of money growth from the first quarter of 1970 to the second quarter of this year. Over this period of four and one-half years, the money stock has risen 6.7 percent per year on average. The level of the money stock was above this line for much of 1972 and through the first half of 1973. Since the Fall of 1973 the money stock has varied closely about the trend line, dropping below in January and early February and again since early July. In order to substantially reduce the trend growth of money that has been observed over a period as long as four and one-half years would require that a considerably slower growth of money would have to be maintained for an extended period. Part of the recent slowing in money stock growth represents a response to a deceleration in the growth of the monetary base. Over the last four months the growth of the monetary base has slowed to a 6 percent annual rate from a 9.3 percent rate over the previous 5 months. The slowing in money growth also reflects a fall in the money multiplier, as shown on page 3. The fall in the money multiplier since mid-April has been associated with a marked rise in interest rates. The rise in interest rates has reflected a very substantial increase in the demand for bank credit, as indicated by the rise in the bank credit proxy on page 12. In order to meet the increased demand for credit, under condition of a slowing in the growth of the monetary base, banks have bid agressively for large CDs, as shown on page 10. The sharp rise in CDs has accompanied the acceleration in the growth of bank credit, but also has absorbed base money, hence reducing base available to support the demand deposits component of the money stock. Beginning the week of August 28, 1974, a series called loans sold outright to selected bank affiliates" reflects a newly issued definition of the group of affiliates included, as well as a somewhat different group of reporting banks. Because data prior to August 28 are not comparable to current data, the series on business loans adjusted" has been discontinued in this release. For an explanation of the revision of this series see the H.4.2 Statistical Release, "Weekly Condition Report of Large Banks and Domestic Subsidiaries" of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System dated September 6, 1974. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: September 13, 1974 MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY AOJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------ ---------------- 112 1 12 --------1----------1---- 4 10 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 NOV 5 19 DEC 2 10 SO 19 27 19 27 10 24 FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 11, MAR • 22 5 10 9 17 91 APR 14 20 11 25 AUG SEP 1974 USES OF MONETARY BASE ARE MEMBER BAf* RESERVES AND CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND NONMEMBER BANKS, ADJUSTED FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN DEPOSITS. FOR A DESCRIPTION OF TH£ BASE SEE THE AUGUST 1968 '1 REVIEW'' OF THIS BANK. * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 9/12/73 12/12/73 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt 2/13/74 3/13/74 4/10/74 5/8/74 6/12/74 7/10/74 9.3 10.6 9.2 8.7 7.5 7.7 11.6 9.3 8.6 7.3 7.6 9.1 8.3 6.7 7.2 6. 1 4.9 5.8 4.5 5.9 5.6 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING. 2/13/74 3/13/74 4/10/74 5/ 8/74 8/12/74 7/10/74 8/14/74 9/11/74 2 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.4 8.9 8.7 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.4 9.3 8.6 8.3 7.5 7.7 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MULTIPLIER^ FEDERAL RESERVE CRED I T 2/ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO RATIO MULTIPLIER 18Z1 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK END IMG: SEPTEMBER 4, RATIO 1974 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS - COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF ___ THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING SEPTEMBER II. 1974 FROM — JUN. _ FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT APR. MAR. 12.4 — SEP. lail AUG. JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2 16 50 IS 27 15 27 10 24 6 22 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY 1973 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 11, 2/ CLaIseI ,974 5 10 MILLIONS — 7 94,314 5 17 51 _ 14 26 II 25 AUG SEP 1974 T0 INCLUDE HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES, LOANS. FLOAT AND ••OTHER” AS1FTS An MIC rcn trna OFQBANKsfNT DM^A^SEASONALLY ADJuIteD^tSIS°BANK? SH'FTS ,N DEPf,SITS ***** http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 225 ---------- 1--------------1----- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -------------------- ----------- 225 BlLLLQijS. 214.4 215.6 215.6 215.4 214.3 214.9 4 18 1 IS 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 18 NOV DEC 2 18 30 13 27 13 27 10 FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 4, MAR 8 22 3 18 3 17 31 14 28 II 25 AUG APR SEP 1974 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , 9/5/73 12/5/73 2.3 5.0 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.3 5.7 5. 1 5. 1 5.3 5.6 4.7 4.2 2/6/74 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 3/6/74 4/3/74 5/1/74 6/5/74 7/3/74 4. 1 5.0 5.5 4.2 3.5 5.9 6.2 4.4 3.6 6.7 4.3 3.3 3.0 2.1 0.0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 0/ 6/74 6/74 3/74 1/74 5/74 3/74 7/74 4/74 11.8 9.5 8.6 8.3 6.6 5.7 * http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 290 ---------- ,--------------,----- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------ ---------------- 290 1874 _ BILLIONS 279.2 281.0 281.2 281.0 279.9 280.7 AUG 6.7Z TREND LINE FROM 1ST QUARTER * 70 TO 2ND QUARTER ‘74 JUL AUC SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 3 17 31 FEB MAR APR 1973 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 4, H 11 II 2* AUC SEP 1974 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE , AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 9/5/73 12/5/73 2/6/74 3/6/74 4/3/74 5/1/74 6/5/74 7/3/74 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 6/74 6/74 3/74 1/74 5/74 3/74 7/74 4/74 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3.9 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.3 5.7 5.5 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 5.8 5.5 12.1 10.5 9.3 8.9 7.3 6.7 6.3 6.4 6.6 5.3 4.9 6.9 7.0 5.2 4.8 6.9 4.6 4.2 3 6 3.3 1.7 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT PERCENT 13.5 13.0 1Z.5 12.0 1 1.5 I 1-5 90 DAY CD'S 11.0 1 1.0 10.5 PRIME BANK LOAN RATE 10.0 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 COMMERCIAL PAPER 8.0 7.5 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 MUNICIPAL BONDS** 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 12 28 4.5 0 23 7 21 DEC 4 18 JAN 1 15 FEB 1 15 29 12 28 10 24 1973 7 21 JUN 5 19 JUL 2 16 30 13 27 1974 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 13, 90 DAY CD'S *81* 1974 JULY AUG. 5 12 19 26 2 9 SEP. 16 23 30 6 13 * 20 27 12.05 12.30 12.66 12.09 11.99 12.05 12.11 12.24 12.48 12.30 12.00 PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-8 MONTH 11.81 11.95 11.95 11.50 11.23 11.48 11.63 11.80 11.85 11.72 11.63 PRIME BAMCERS' ACCEPTANCES 11.31 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.08 12.16 12.10 11.79 11.50 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS 8.62 8.66 8.71 8.77 8. 86 8.93 8.98 9. 03 9.08 9. 13 9.17 1974 MUNICIPAL BONDS***** 6.64 6.95 6.78 6.34 6.70 6.58 6.61 6.73 6.91 6.88 N. A. * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. S* BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS. THURSDAY DATA. *** SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES OF SECONDARY MARKET RATES FOR THE WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATES SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE. N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 0 SELECTED SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 14.0 PERCENT 10.5 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 10.0 10.0 THREE-MONTH TREASURY BILL MARKET YIELD DISCOUNT RATE 6 20 3 17 31 14 23 12 26 0 23 7 21 4 18 1 JAN FEB 15 I 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 3 10 JUN JUL 2 16 30 13 27 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDINGt SEPTEMBER 13, 1974 JULY AUG. SEP. 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 *** 20 27 FEDERAL FUNDSm 3-MONTH TREASURY BILLS 3-5 YEAR GOVERNMENT SECURITIES LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 13.55 13.34 13.04 12.60 12.29 12.09 12.02 12.23 11.84 11.64 11.48 7.53 7.45 7.72 7.43 7.84 8.75 8.75 9.29 9.37 9.34 9. 1 1 8. 47 8.60 8.35 8.08 8.55 8.59 8.58 8.69 8. 69 8.61 8.46 7.12 7.23 7.24 7. 12 7.24 7.31 7.35 7.30 7.36 7.33 7.29 1974 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. ** SKJI£F:2AY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS1 H.9 RELEASE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 7 TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 410 r--------- -------------- ------ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS -------------------- -------- =] 410 TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS NET TIME DEPOSITS* 4 18 1 JUL AUG 15 20 12 26 10 24 SEP OCT 7 21 5 19 2 16 NOV DEC JAN 5 10 FEB MAR 5 17 31 APR 1973 14 26 11 25 AUG SEP 1974 latest data plotted week enoing< September 4, 1974 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. ■NET, TI ME DEPOSI TS ARE DEFINED AS: SAVINGS DEPOSITS, TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT pi tic t mp CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFI CATES OF nFPn<5I T l^liFn >u T,ME DENOMINATIONS OF *100,000 OR MORE BY UkRGEWEEKLY REPORTING COI*£RC?AL IaKKS^ ° NET TIME DEPOS1TS • COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 9/5/73 12/5/73 2/6/74 13.6 13.8 12.6 12.1 11.4 11 .5 11.3 11.1 14.5 12.3 1 1.5 10.6 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.0 9.4 8.7 9.4 9.5 9.4 3/6/74 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 4/3/74 5/1/74 6/5/74 7/3/74 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 6/74 6/74 3/74 1/74 5/74 3/74 7/74 4/74 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6.7 6.8 8. 1 8.5 8.5 7.5 9.1 9.3 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.3 11.2 10.3 9.3 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK PLUS TIME DEPOSITS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MONEY STOCK PLUS TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS — 570 MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS Ml ■= 560 - 550 4 IS 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 NOV 5 19 DEC 2 16 50 15 27 15 27 10 24 FEB MAR APR LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 4, 6 22 5 19 5 17 51 14 26 11 25 AUG SEP 1974 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. Ml Mi IS DEFINED AS. CURRENCY, DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (SEE PAGE 6). MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt 9/5/73 12/5/73 2/6/74 3/6/74 4/3/74 5/1/74 6/5/74 7/3/74 6.6 6.6 7.4 7.0 6.8 7.2 8. 1 7.4 7. 1 8. 1 7.2 6.9 7.5 7.0 5.6 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING. 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ B/ 7/ 8/ 9/ fl/74 6/74 3/74 1/74 5/74 3/74 7/74 4/74 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8.9 10.1 9.4 9.3 8.9 9.0 8.6 8.4 10.8 9.5 9.2 8.7 8.9 8.4 8.1 1 1.0 10.0 9.0 9.2 8.5 8. 1 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSIT LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS , WEDNESDAY FIGURES NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 IQ 1 15 28 12 2C 10 24 7 21 NOV 5 IQ DEC 2 IQ 30 13 27 15 27 10 24 FEB MAR LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: SEPTEMBER 4, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ----------- ----------- ----------- 90 • 22 5 IQ 3 17 3 I 14 28 It 25 1974 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS1 H.6 RELEASE. 5laLYAREP0RTmGCC0»llIcRC*ALSBANKSEPOS'T ISSUED ,N DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis L---------------------1UttEY 1974 JULY AUG. SEP. 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT NOT SEAS. AOJ. 80.8 81.1 83.0 84.8 85.5 86.0 86.9 87.8 88.4 88.6 AM TIME DEPOSIT KTA BILLIONS CERTIFICATES NET TIME OF DEPOSIT DEPOS1TS 85.0 84.7 85.4 85.9 85.6 84.9 84.7 84.6 84.4 85. 1 317.4 318.5 318.5 319.3 320.3 320.6 321.5 321.4 321.9 321.9 ---------------------- m M2 m 598.1 597.8 599.4 598.5 599.6 601.5 602.7 602.4 601 .8 602.6 * SEE FOOTNOTE PAGE 8. SEE FOOTNOTE PAGE 9. *rn PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS ALL MEMBER BANKS iaz± AUG. IN THE NATION AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.5 r=-------- 1--------------1----- BILLIONS OF DOLLARS --------- ----------- -------- -1 4.5 wiiUQNa 7 14 21 26 SEP. 4 11 BOSS 3040 3437 3533 3906 3805 BORROWINGS I 4 10 19 21 II M 10 24 7 II NOV 8 10 DEC t 18 30 13 *7 13 27 10 M FEB MAR LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 11, 0 2? 8 IS J IT II 14 M II 15 AUC SEP 1974 BUSINESS LOANS (COMMERCIAL AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 152 INDUSTRIAL) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED I----------1--------1----------1 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 152 I compounded annual rates of change, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING SEPTEMBER 4, 1974 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING. ^^^^■BUSI NESS BUSINESS LOANS! ■-PANS JUL. JUN. MAY APR. MAR. DEC. SEP. 3, 5, 1, 3, 6, 5, 5, 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 1973 1973 BUSINESS LOANS ADJUSTED 25.6 NOT available 31.6 24.6 17.9 BUSINESS LQAfcgL BUSINESS LOANS JUL. AUG. 126,151 126,748 127,094 127,690 126,234 128,760 BU8 L ADJUS 129,056 129,564 130,046 130,525 _J N. A. I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 4 16 JUL 1 13 29 12 28 10 24 AUG SEP OCT 1973 2 16 30 13 27 IS 27 10 24 « 22 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY 1974 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. SEPTEMBER 4, 3 17 31 14 28 11 23 JUL AUG SEP 1974 SEE COVER PA6E 1/SERIES ON'BUS I NESS LOANS ADJUSTED1 HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED IN THIS RELEASE. FOR EXPLANATION. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS (CREDIT PROXY ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 505 r--------- 1---------------r------ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS --------- ------------ --------- 13 505 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING SEPTEMBER 4, 1974 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENOINOi CREDIT CREDIT PROXY -PftQXY ADJUSTED JUL. JUN. MAY APR. MAR. DEC. SEP. 3, 1974 3, 1974 1,1974 3, 1974 6, 1974 5, 1973 3, 1973 CREOIT PROXY ADJUSTED 1/ 11.9 BILLIONS CREDIT -PROXY CREDIT PROXY ADJUSTED CREDIT PROXY 478.0 488.8 479.9 JUL 1 IS 29 12 26 10 24 AUC SEP OCT 7 21 NOV S l» DEC 2 16 90 13 27 19 27 10 24 6 22 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY 1973 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGi SEPTEMBER 4, CURRENT DATA APPEAR 9 10 9 489.6 489.3 490.3 17 31 14 29 11 29 1974 1974 IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.9 RELEASE. 1/ ,l,NiLU2fL^M8E£ 5£i£ DEPOSITS, bank-related commercial U.S. BAMCS, AND CERTAIN OTHER NONDEPOSIT SOURCES. paper, EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 12 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis