Full text of U.S. Financial Data : Week Ending: January 6, 1982
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F/A^/i/vcr//ii o/ir/i Week ending: January 6, 1982 klBRAWY JAN 1 2 t90iNet interest rates are determined by numerous factors that affect the supply of and the demand for credit, including changes in the rate of growth of money (M1B). All other things equal, an acceleration in the short-run rate of money growth will cause interest rates to fall, while a deceleration will cause interest rates to rise. Data on the rate of growth of M1B corresponding to peak-to-trough and trough-to-peak movements in the 90-day CD rate, however, suggest that changes in the rate of money growth have not been the primary determinant of short-run movements in short-term interest rates during the past year. For example, from the four weeks ending March 18 to the four weeks ending May 13, money grew at a 16.2 percent rate, up from the 6.3 percent rate of the previous three-month period. Despite this acceleration, the 90-day CD rate rose 527 basis points over this period. Likewise, from the four weeks ending May 13 to the four weeks ending June 17, the money supply decreased at a rate of 11.3 percent, while the 90-day CD rate declined 220 basis points. The only exception to this positive relationship between interest rate movements and M1B growth occurred during the period beginning July 22 when the rate of growth in M1B accelerated to 4.5 percent and the 90-day CD rate declined 667 basis points. Movements in the 90-day CD rate appear to have been closely linked to changes in credit demand. The table below shows that rising interest rates have been associated with accelerating rates of business loan activity, while decreasing interest rates have been associated with decelerating rates of loan activity. The one exception to the pattern occurred during the five-week period from May 13 to June 17. The 90-day CD rate declined by 220 basis points despite no change in the rate of growth of loan activity. Growth Rates of M1B and Business Loans, and Changes in the 90-day CD Rate Business loans at large weekly reporting banks* M1B* Changes in 90-day CD rate** 12/17/80 - 3/18/81 -6.2% 6.3% -670 3/18/81 - 5/13/81 18.3 16.2 527 5/13/81 - 6/17/81 18.3 -11.3 -220 6/17/81 - 7/22/81 27.6 1.2 158 7/22/81 - 11/25/81 12.5 4.5 -667 11/25/81 - 12/30/81 21.4 12.3 152 Week ending * ** Compounded annual rates of change of seasonally adjusted data. Changes in basis points for data ending two days later than date shown. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: January 8, 1982 2 ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 176 BULLIONS JAN. 170.2 170. I 170.0 170.5 170.7 172.0 1 JAN FEB 15 29 12 26 9 23 7 21 OCT MAR NOV 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING-. JANUARY 6, 1982 THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF: ( I ) RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS, (2) CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS), AND (3) AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES. THE MAJOR SOURCE OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THIS BANK. ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 1/7/81 4/8/81 6/3/81 7/8/81 8/5/81 6.0 5.2 6.0 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.7 7.0 6. 1 4.7 4.4 4.8 5.0 6.0 5.0 3.2 3.0 3.8 4.2 6.8 3.6 3.3 4.3 4.6 0.3 1 .0 2.8 3.4 9/9/81 10/7/81 11/4/81 5.3 5.6 7.0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10/ 11/ 12/ 1/ 3/81 8/81 5/81 9/81 7/81 4/81 9/81 6/82 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -0.4 2.6 3.5 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS ADJUSTED RESERVES AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 ---------- 1------------- ,-------1981 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS --------------------------------- 50 BILLIONS NOV. 47.7 47.6 47.3 47.2 46.6 I I I I 3 NOV 1/ DEC Mil 31 14 28 JAN I I 25 FEB II MAR 25 8 22 APR 6 20 3 MAY JUN I I I I 17 1980 JUL SEP OCT NOV DEC 1981 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30. JAN 1982 1981 £9JiKTIP MONETARY BASE (RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS PLUS CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION) LESS CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC. ) ADJUSTED RESERVES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 12/31/80 4/1/81 5/27/81 6.2 4.0 7.8 3.9 2.6 4.5 2.0 1.2 8. 1 2.5 1 .0 3.7 0.7 7/1/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/29/81 9/2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/27/81 7/ 1/81 7/29/81 9/ 2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 12/ 2/81 12/30/81 3.2 3.5 2.6 5.2 2.9 2. 1 3.5 1.7 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10.2 1.7 0.0 3.5 0.0 3.7 0.9 5.0 0.5 -10.3 -0.8 -5.0 6.3 -1.7 0.0 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 4 MONEY STOCK ( Ml A) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 ---------- -------------------- NOV DEC 1980 JAN FEB MAR APR LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: MAY JUN DECEMBER 30. JUL 1981 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------,------------- ,---------- 400 NOV. DEC. 25 OCT NOV SEP 361.2 365.6 363.9 363. 1 364.6 363.7 DEC JAN 1982 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. MIA CONSISTS OF CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC PLUS CO&44ERCIAL BANK DEMAND DEPOSITS HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC (EXCLUDING THOSE HELD BY FOREIGN BANKS AND OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS) PLUS TRAVELER'S CHECKS OF NONBANK ISSUERS. MONEY STOCK (MIA) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/31/80 4/1/81 -13.0 -12.8 -11.2 -9.5 -9.3 -8.0 -6.8 -6.0 -4.5 -3.5 -2.4 -3. 1 -2. 1 -1 . 1 -0.6 5/27/81 7/1/81 7/29/81 9/2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/27/81 7/ 1/81 7/29/81 9/ 2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 12/ 2/81 12/30/81 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -7.0 -4. 1 -4.8 -3. 1 -1.7 -1.0 0.8 -1.8 -0.2 0.9 1.4 -2.5 -0.2 1 . 1 1.6 -1.3 1 .0 1 .7 4.9 4.6 4.4 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK (MIB) billions of AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED dollars billions of dollars BILLIONS 450 — NOV. 437.2 441.2 441.8 MAY JUN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30. CURRENT DATA APPEAR 1981 IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. MIB CONSISTS OF MIA PLUS OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL DEPOSITARY INSTITUTIONS. MONEY STOCK ( MIB ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/31/80 4/1/81 5/27/81 7/1/81 7/29/81 9/2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 10.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 5.5 5.4 6.2 6.4 2.6 3. 1 3.7 2.8 3. 1 4.4 4.9 -3.0 0.0 -0.4 0.5 2.6 3.5 5.4 3. 1 3.5 5.5 6. 1 2.3 3. 1 5.6 6.3 1.5 5.6 6.4 9.0 9. 1 1 1 .0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/27/81 7/ 1/81 7/29/81 9/ 2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 12/ 2/81 12/30/81 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 6 YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 22.0 22.0 21.0 PRIME BANK LOAN RATE 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 90 DAY CD'S 18.0 18.0 17.0 17.0 16.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS 13.0 12.0 I 1.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 AUG II 0 25 SEP NOV DEC 1980 1982 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: 1982 NOV. DEC. JAN. 6 13 20 27 4 1 1 18 25 1 8 * 15 22 29 90 DAY CD'S 14. 13 12.77 11.97 11.51 11.62 11.96 12.68 13. 16 13.03 12.96 PRIME COMMERC1AL PAPER *** 13.64 12.41 11.57 11.09 11.35 1 1 .61 12.34 12.71 12.71 12.69 PRIME BANKERS’ ACCEPTANCES 13.54 12.34 11.51 11.14 11.37 11.71 12.31 12.83 12.67 12.49 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. ** BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, ### DATA ARE 4-MONTH COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES. N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis CORPORATE Aaa BONDS 14.88 14. 18 13.92 13.92 13.99 14. 16 14.11 14.36 14.50 14.72 JANUARY 8, CORPORATE Baa BONDS 16.87 16.41 16.20 16.08 16. 15 16.42 16.55 16.75 16.86 16.96 1982 MUNICIPAL BONDS XX 12.44 11.43 11.71 11.98 12.18 12.89 13.00 13.17 13.30 N. A. THURSDAY DATA. PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SELECTED INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 22.0 22.0 21 .0 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 20.0 20.0 19.0 18.0 1 j~ 3-MONT TREASURY 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 DISCOUNT RATE 13.0 12.0 12.0 5-YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES 1 1.0 10.0 10.0 5 NOV 19 DEC 2 16 30 13 FEB 27 13 27 MAR 10 24 APR AUG SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: JANUARY 8, FEDERAL FUNDS XX 1982 NOV. 6 13 20 27 DEC. 4 1 1 18 25 JAN. 1 8 15 22 29 X 14.79 14.01 13. 17 12.42 12.48 12.04 12.26 12.43 12.54 12.98 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL 12.21 10.93 10.31 10.23 10.39 10.47 10.94 11.14 11.35 11.60 6-MONTH TREASURY BILL XXX 12.72 11.51 10.97 10.92 10.70 10.77 11.60 11.84 12.45 12.28 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL 12.35 11.29 10.78 10.63 10.85 11.13 11.53 12. 16 12.23 12.35 5-YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES 14.36 13.43 13.12 12.81 13.03 13.47 13.44 14.03 14.04 14.40 X AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. XX SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK 1982 LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES 13.81 13. 16 12.78 12.71 12.78 13.21 13.19 13.54 13.69 14.06 END ING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARL IER THAN DATE SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.I5 RELEASE. NEW ISSUE RATE RATES ON LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES ARE COMPUTED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS. TREASURY BILL YIELDS ON DISCOUNT BASIS. XXX http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 7 8 MULTIPLIERS!' CURRENCY OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES 2/ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO 3.0 2.9 RATIO >V. 2.8 MONEY MULTIPLIERS 2! 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 RATIO >V. 2. 1 25 2.0 I .9 I I I 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30. 1981 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 128 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF OF ur CHANGE, unwioc, AVERAGE ur ___THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING DECEMBER 30. 1981 FRO» THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: SEP. “ jul! APR. ---- DEC. 28, 30. 2. 29. I, 1, 31. 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1980 8.9 6.8 5.4 4.6 5.6 6.0 5.9 CURRENCY 1LLIQNS )V. 2! I II I 25 JAN FEB 8 22 6 20 3 OCT MAR 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30, 1 I I I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 .1 1.1 17 NOV 1981 1981 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (MIA) OR (MIB) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE 2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK (MIA) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED billions of dollars BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 280 BILLIONS NOV. 25 234.5 239.0 236.9 235.9 236.8 235. I 275 270 265 260 255 250 245 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 II 25 II 25 8 22 6 20 3 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 7 21 -LL1LLUJ 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' 1981 H.6 RELEASE. DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK ( Ml A ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 12/31/80 4/1/81 5/27/81 7/1/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/29/81 9/2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 5.0 3.6 2.7 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/27/81 7/ 1/81 7/29/81 9/ 2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 12/ 2/81 12/30/81 -21.5 -20.7 -18.8 -16.4 -15.9 -14. 1 -12.3 -11.4 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -9.2 -8.3 -6.6 -7.3 -5.7 -4.3 -3.8 -12.2 -8.2 -8.9 -6.4 -4.5 -3.9 -2.6 -5.4 -2.9 -1.3 -1.0 -5.5 -2.2 -0.4 -0.2 -3.3 -0.3 -0. 1 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 9 10 SAVINGS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ILL IONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS of dollars BILLION? “ NOV. 25 510.9 510.5 51 1.5 512.0 51 I .5 51 I .3 INI 5 19 3 17 31 14 JAN 28 11 25 FEB II 25 8 22 6 20 3 I 17 15 29 12 26 9 23 7 21 MAR 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING-. DECEMBER 30, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ 1981 H.6 RELEASE. TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN *100,000. SAVINGS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 12/31/80 4/1/81 5/27/81 4.3 4.8 6.3 6.0 6.7 8.2 7.9 6.2 8.0 7.2 8.0 9.7 9.2 7/1/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 7/29/81 9/2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 15.0 12.0 12.2 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 5/27/81 7/ 1/81 7/29/81 9/ 2/81 9/30/81 10/28/81 12/ 2/81 12/30/81 4. I 4.5 4.8 5.7 5.5 6. 1 7.3 7. 1 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9.2 7.7 8.6 10.6 9.8 8.2 9.2 1 1.5 10.4 7.9 1 1 .6 10. 1 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Z 1982 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4.0 MILLIONS — DEC. 3.0 JAN. 6 2.5 2.0 1.5 ! .0 JAN FEB MAR OCT NOV 1980 1982 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JANUARY 6, 1982 BUSINESS LOANS u ( COMMERCIAL AND I NDUSTRIAL) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ” “ - COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING DECEMBER 30, 1981 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: ” “ _ OCT. SEP. SEP. JUL. JUL. APR. DEC. 28, 30, 2, 29, 1, 1, 31, 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 ------ BANKS 2/ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 196 17.8 MILLIONS NOV. 25 DEC. 2 188,997 90,731 191,112 192,405 191,087 192,836 I I I I I I I i I I I I I I I I 22 JAN FEB 6 20 3 17 MAR 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30, 1981 1/ BUSINESS LOANS INCLUDE BANKERS’ ACCEPTANCES AND COMMERCIAL PAPER. 2/ BANKS WITH DOMESTIC ASSETS OF *750 MILLION OR MORE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 11 12 LARGE TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 265 260 255 250 245 240 235 230 225 220 215 210 205 I I I I 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 30, 1981 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF *100,000 OR MORE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
@FedFRASER