View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

/
/^//v>a

tsict x\

f_

o/i t x\

Week ending: January 4r 1978
The yield curve for U.S. Government securities has
become steeper since mid-October of this year. The yield curve
LIBRAP shifted up about 25 basis points between mid-October and late
DEC 2 8 1979December for maturities of three years and over. The rise in the
yield curve was smaller for shorter maturities, with almost no
change in yields on securities maturing in less than one year.
In contrast, the yield curve became flatter between late May and
mid-October, with almost no change in yields for maturities over
about 12 years but a rise of about 100 basis points in short-term
rates.
Yields on long-term corporate debt have also risen
relative to yields on short-term corporate debt since mid-October.
The differential between yields on Corporate Aaa bonds and
interest rates on 4-6 month prime commercial paper averaged 244
basis points in the week ending May 27, narrowed to 150 basis
points in the week ending October 14, and widened to 157 basis
points in the most recant week. The yield on corporate Aaa bonds
fluctuated within a narrow band around 8 percent most of last
year, but rose to 8.28 percent in the most recent week, the
highest rate since November 1976.

Yields on U.S. Government Securities
Percent
9.01------


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

December 28, 1977

Years to Maturity
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Released: January 6, 1978

MONETARY BASE
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
134

BILLIONS
__ NOV

130

129.7
129.4
129.9
129.9
130. 1

132

— JAN

130

128

126

124

122

120

118

3

IT

1

13 29 12 28

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 18

APR

MAY

I

15 29 13 27

10 24

7 21

5 19

2

16

14 28 11

25

1976
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JANUARY 4,

1978

THE MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND CURRENCY
IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS), ADJUSTED
FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE SAME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANKS
WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY. THE MAJOR SOURCES OF THE MONETARY BASE ARE
FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT AND THE GOLD STOCK. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DE­
SCRIPTION OF THE MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS.

MONETARY BASE
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,
1/5/77

4/6/77

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

6/1/77

7/6/77

8/3/77

9/7/77

9.2
9.7
10.7
10.0
9.9
9.4

10.7
1 1.7
10.7
10.4
9.7

12.1
10.6
10.2
9.5

10.7
10.2
9.2

10/5/77

11/2/77

3.4
7.7

7.9

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
6/
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/
1/

1/77
6/77
3/77
7/77
5/77
2/77
7/77
4/78


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

8.3
8.2
8.6
8.8
9.4
9.2
9.2
9.0

7.8
8.5
8.9
9.7
9.4
9.4
9. 1

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MULTIPLIER^
ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT*/
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RATIO

RATIO

MULTIPLIER

RATIO
—

2.4

—

2.3

2.58i
I I I I I I I I I II
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
114

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
__OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
_ JANUARY 4, 1978 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDINGi
NOV.
OCT.
SEP.
-----AUG.
JUL.
“ APR.
___JAN.

112

110

ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT

-

1977

11.0

108

10.2

106

104

102
1978

BILLIONS
100

98

3 17

1

IS 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 IS

APR

MAY

I

IS 29 13 27

10 24

7 21

5 19

SEP

OCT

2

16 30 H 28 11

DEC

23

JAN

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JANUARY 4, 1978
1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml ) / MONETARY BASE.
2/

RESERVE CREDIT CONSISTS OF FEDERAL RESERVE HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES. LOANS. FLOAT
ADJUSTED FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT IS COMPUTED BY SUBTRACfING TREASURY
gfPOS1
RESERVE BAM<S FROM THIS SERIES. AND ADJUSTING THE SERIES FOR RE­
SERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AND SHIFTS IN THE $AME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANKS
WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY.
DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2)
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
815

BILLIONS
NOV.

23

801.8
803.8
806. 1
805. 1
805.7
807. I

800
— 795
-

790

E

785

775

750
745
740
-3 735
-3 730
725
3

IT

1

15 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 18

APR

MAY

1976

1

15 29 13 27

10 24

7 21

5 19

2

16 30 14 28 11 25

1977

1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENOING: DECEMBER 28, 1977
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.

MONEY STOCK PLUS NET Tl ME DEPOSITS (M2)
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

12/29/76

3/30/77

5/25/77

6/29/77

7/27/77

8/31/77

9.3
9.0
10.3
9.7
9.6
9.8
9.2
8.9

9.2
11.4
10.2
10.0
10.2
9.3
8.9

12.7
10.3
10.0
10.3
9. 1
8.6

1 1.7
10.8
1 1.0
9.4
8.8

7.4
8.7
7.3
7.0

10.2
7.7
7.2

9/28/77 10/26/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/25/77
6/29/77
7/27/77
8/31/77
9/28/77
10/26/77
11/30/77
12/28/77


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

7.3
6.8

4.6

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

0

MONEY STOCK (Ml )
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
340

billions

331.5
333.2
334.9
333.9
335.3
335.7

DEC.

335

330

325

320

315

310

305

I

15 29 IZ M 9 23
JAN
FEB

9 23

6 20
APR

4 18
MAY

1 15 29 13 27 10 24

7 21

5 19

2 16 30 14 28 11 25
DEC
JAN

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE.
THE MONEY STOCK CONSISTS OF DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY AND COIN HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC.

MONEY STOCK (Mi )
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,
12/29/76

3/30/77

5/25/77

6/29/77

6.9
6.2
8. 1
7.7
7.8
8.5
7.3
7.3

8.5
11.5
9.9
9.8
10.6
8.5
8.4

11.1
8.8
8.9
10. 1
7.6
7.5

12. 1
11.1
12.2
8.6
8.4

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

7/27/77

8/31/77

9/28/77 10/26/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/25/77
6/29/77
7/27/77
8/31/77
9/28/77
10/26/77
11/30/77
12/28/77


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

6.7
9.4
5.9
6.1

12.3

6.2
6.5

5.0
5.7

1 .6

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES
AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

PERCENT

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5
CORPORATE Aaa BONOS
8.0

7.5

7.0

RIME BANK
OAN RATE

6.5
Cl PAL

6.0

5.5
COMMERCIAL PAPER

5.0

4.5

4.0

5 19

3 17 31

M 28 II

JAN

25

FEB

II

25

8 22

6 20

3 17

1

15 29 12 26

9 23

7 21

4 18

2

16 30 13 27

MAR

1976

1977

1978

LATEST OATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: JANUARY 6,

1978
NOV.

4
1 1
18

25
DEC.

2

9
16
JAN.

23
30
6 3*
13

1978

90 DAY
CD'S aee*

PRIME
COMMERCIAL
PAPER
4-6 MONTH

PRIME
BANKERS'
ACCEPTANCES

Aaa BONDS

CORPORATE

MUN1C1 PAL
BONDS 310*

6.67
6.74
6.68
6.65
6.62
6.63
6.72
6.72
6.78
6.77

6.61
6.61
6.59
6.56
6.57
6.60
6.64
6.68
6.68
6.71

6.69
6.66
6.57
6.51
6.46
6.55
6.57
6.65
6.71
6.71

8.08
8.10
8.07
8.07
8.08
8.13
8.18
8.23
8.28
8.28

5.55
5.55
5.45
5.45
5.47
5.54
5.55
5.55
5.66
N. A.

20
27

6

* AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
310* BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS. THURSDAY DATA.
3BB* SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES OF SECONDARY MARKET RATES FOR THE WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS
EARLIER THAN DATES SHOWN.
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE.
N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

SELECTED

INTEREST RATES

AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

PERCENT
----- 8.0

8.0 ----

3-5 YEAR
TREASURY SECURITIES

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
v__/

DISCOUNT RATE

THREE-MONTH TREASURY
BILL MARKET YIELD

JAN

FEB

MAR

9 23

MAY

JUN

1976

7 21

4 18

OCT

NOV

2

16 30 13 27

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDINGt JANUARY 6, 1978

1978
NOV.

4
1 1
18
25
DEC.
2
9
16
23
SO
JAN.
6 *
13
20
27

FEDERAL
FUNDS **

3-MONTH
TREASURY
BILLS

1-YEAR
TREASURY
BILL

3-5 YEAR
TREASURY
SECURITIES

LONG-TERM
TREASURY
SECURITIES

6.50
6.58
6.42
6.51
6.55
6.51
6.49
6.54
6.65
6.69

6.20
6. 15
6.07
6.06
6.04
6.07
6.03
6.03
6. 16
6. 17

6.60
6.55
6.49
6.48
6.49
6.52
6.50
6.53
6.57
6.54

7.36
7.30
7.24
7.25
7.29
7.36
7.38
7.43
7.51
7.55

7.70
7.71
7.67
7.65
7.66
7.71
7.74
7.80
7 87
7.90

* AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
** otrent'data^pIar™ ’fgIKB§Si'^F"g8!J|^SSsTwS. gASiulSSk1ER TnAN °ATE SHamTREaIury
COMPUTED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

LOUIS.

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

7

NET TIME DEPOSITS

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

8 ILL IONS OF DOLLARS
480

BILLIONS
NOV.

23

475

470.3
470.7
471.2
471.3
470.4

470
465
460
455
450
445
440
435
430
425
420
415

3 ir

t

IS 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 18

APR

MAY

1

1976

15 29 13 27 10 24

7 21

5 19

SEP

OCT

2 16 30 14 28 11

1977

25

1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.
* NET TIME DEPOSITS ARE DEFINED AS: SAVINGS DEPOSITS. TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS TIME
CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN
DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS.

NET TIME DEPOS1TS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
12/29/76

3/30/77

5/25/77

6/29/77

7/27/77

8/31/77

11.1
11.1
1 1 .9
1 1.3
1 1 .0
10.8
10.6
10. 1

9.7
1 1.4
10.5
10.1
10.0
9.9
9.3

13.8
11.5
10.8
10.5
10.2
9.5

1 1.7
10.6
10.2
10.0
9. 1

7.8
8.2
8.4
7.7

8.6
8.8
7.8

9/28/77 10/26/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/25/77
6/29/77
7/27/77
8/31/77
9/28/77
10/26/77
11/30/77
12/28/77

8


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

9.1
7.6

7.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
250 ---------- 1-------------1-----

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
-------- ---------- ---------- 250

BILLiONS
243.8
245. 1
246.9
245.7
246.8
246.9

I

JAN

15 29 13 27

10 24

7 2t

5 19

FEB

2

16 30 14 28 11

DEC

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28,

25

JAN

1977

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.

DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

12/29/76

3/30/77

5/25/77

6/29/77

7/27/77

8/31/77

6. 1
5.2
7.6
7. 1
7. 1
8. 1
6.4
6.4

8.3
11.9
10.0
9.7
10.7
8.0
7.9

11.2
8.6
8.4
10.0
6.7
6.7

12.5
11.0
12.6
7.8
7.6

5.6
9.2
4.5
4.9

12.7
4.7
5.1

9/28/77 10/26/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
5/25/77
6/29/77
7/27/77
8/31/77
9/28/77
10/26/77
11/30/77
12/28/77


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

3.4
4.3

-1.2

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

9

CURRENCY COMPONENT
OF MONEY STOCK
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS of DOLLARS

BILLIONS

— DEC
88.5

1

15 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

FEB

9 23

6 20

4 18

APR

MAY

1

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING-. DECEMBER 28.

15 29 13 27

10 24

7 21

5 19

2

16 30 M 26 It

DEC

23

JAN

1977

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.

CURRENCY
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,
12/29/76

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING;

3/30/77

5/25/77

6/29/77

7/27/77

8/31/77

8.5
10.0
9.4
9.9
9.9
9.9
9.7

10.8
9.7
10.4
10.2
10.2
9.8

10.8
11.4
10.9
10.7
10.2

9.9
9.7
9.8
9.4

11.1
10.7
10.0

9/28/77 10/26/77

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
END 1NGt
5/25/77
6/29/77
7/27/77
8/31/77
9/28/77
10/26/77
11/30/77
12/28/77


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

9.1
8.9
9.7
9.4
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.6

9.7
9.1

8.9

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS
ALL MEMBER BANKS IN THE NATION
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2.5 ---------- 1-------------1----1918

OF DOLLARS

1----------

2.5

MILLIONS

NOV. 30

JAN.

3 17

1

4

15 29 12 26

JAN

9 23

9 23

FEB

6 20

4 18

APR

MAY

1

13 29 13 27

10 24

7 21

5 19

2

16 30 14 28 11

25

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JANUARY 4, 1978

BUSINESS LOANS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
126 ---------- ------------- -----

( COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL )
WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
-------- ---------- --------- -I 126

_ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF
— THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
— DECEMBER 28. 1977 FROM
— THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: .
” OCT. 26,
— SEP. 28,
— AUG. 31 ,

1977
1977
1977

MILLIONS

10.7
13.8
10.8
I 1 .0

NOV. 23

.1.11 I I I
1

NOV

DEC
1976

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

15 29 13 27

JUN
iff

10 24

7 21

5

SEP

OCT

19

2

16 30

14 26 II 23

DEC

JAN
1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28, 1977


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT

LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS
WEDNESDAY FIGURES
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

76

------NOV.

billions

OF

dollars

72.5
73.3
74.0
76.5
77.3

3

17

1

13 29 12 26

9 23

9 23

6 20
APR

4 16
MAY

1

15 29

13 27

10 24

7 21
SEP

5

19

2

16 30

14 28

II

25

OCT
1978

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 28,
CURRENT DATA APPEAR

IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS'

NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT
WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS.

ISSUED

1977
H.6 RELEASE.
IN DENOMINATIONS OF 6100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

LOUIS