Full text of U.S. Financial Data : Week Ending: August 12, 1981
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trsjA /vc/>a l. Week ending: August 12, 1981 . The volume of business loans (commercial and industrial) at large wHwSHy-reporting commercial banks has increased substantially in the last four months. From the four weeks ending April 8 to the four weeks ending August 5, business loans increased at about a 23 percent rate. This rapid growth is similar to that experienced in the latter half of 1980: from the four weeks ending August 6, 1980 to the four weeks ending December 3, 1980, business loans increased at a comparable rate. While the growth of business loans is similar in these two periods, the behavior of the monetary aggregates is quite different. The table below shows that M1B increased at about a 15 percent rate in the earlier period. In contrast, M1B grew at only about a 2 percent rate in the most recent period of rapid growth of business loans. The fact that money growth was slower in this most recent period would suggest to many that interest rates, especially short-term, should have risen more rapidly over the last few months than during the prior period of sharp increases in business loans. However, money growth is only one of many factors affecting the supply and demand for credit (and even here a question exists as to whether rapid money growth leads to lower interest rates or whether it leads to accelerating inflation expectations and higher interest rates). The point is that the relationship between money growth and interest rates is not as predictable as many suggest. A comparison of interest rate movements over the two periods considered here shows the tenuous nature of this relationship. Short-term interest rates, in point of fact, rose less in the period of slow money growth than in the period of rapid money growth. For example, the 90-day CD rate rose from an average level of 14.43 in March 1981, to an average level of 17.76 in July 1981. This 333 basis point rise is less than half the rise experienced from July 1980 to November 1980. Growth rates of M1B and Business Loans and changes in the 90-day CD rate Business loans at large weekly-reporting commercial banks * Period 8/6/80 12/3/80 22.5 % 4/8/81 8/5/81 22.8 * ** *** M1B * Change in 90-day CD rate 14.7 % 703 ** 1.6 333 *** Compounded annual rates of seasonally adjusted data. Basis point change from average July 1980 level to average November 1980 level. Basis point change from average March 1981 level to average July 1981 level. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of Si. Louis http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Released: August 14, 1981 2 ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 174 1 1981 172 JUL. - 170 _ AUG. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 174 1--------- - BILLIONS 8 15 22 29 5 12 172 166.7 167.2 168.6 IDO.1 168.1 168.5 170 A. 168 /s/ 166 - 168 J 166 r 164 s. 162 - 1 r1 164 \ 162 - - - - 160 160 J1 158 - 158 - - - - - !u-L uiii -LLl 1 1 1 10 30 13 27 JUL AUG 10 24 SEP 1980 Mil III -i.m ■ Ill 5 19 3 17 31 NOV DEC LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK END INGt AUGUST |2, in 14 28 II JAN 111 jin jj j 25 FEB II 25 MAR 8 22 APR III 6 20 3 MAY 1981 17 JUN 1 1 1 1 jjj: I IS 29 12 JUL 26 AUG 1981 THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF; <I ) MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS. (2) CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS ), AND C3 ) AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES. THE MAJOR SOURCE OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THIS BANK. ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 8/13/80 11/12/80 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING; 1/14/81 2/11/81 3/11/81 4/15/81 5/13/81 6/10/81 4.5 5.0 6. 1 5.9 5.2 5.9 8.8 9.2 8. 1 6.8 7.4 7.6 6.8 5.6 6.5 7.3 5.4 6.6 3.5 5.7 6.0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING; 1/14/81 2/11/81 3/11/81 4/15/81 5/13/81 6/10/81 7/15/81 8/12/81 8.0 6.2 7.0 6.9 7.2 6.9 6.5 6.8 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 .2 3.8 4.3 5. 1 5. 1 4.7 5.3 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES!/ AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1981 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 50 BILLIONS 46.4 45.9 46.7 47.6 46.9 47.0 I I I I 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 AUG 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 SEP 14 28 JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED KEEK ENDING*. AUGUST 5. II 23 FEB II 23 • 22 6 20 I 13 29 12 71 MAR 1381 1/ ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE LESS CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC (MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS < ♦ ) CURRENCY HELD BY COMMERCIAL BANKS). ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 8/6/80 11/5/80 1/7/8I -1.7 1.3 1 .5 2.6 2.6 1.3 2.9 0.0 0.9 2.7 2.7 0.9 3.0 2/4/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING*. 3/4/81 4/8/81 5/8/81 6/3/81 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 7/81 4/81 4/81 8/81 6/81 3/81 8/81 5/81 8.7 5.4 6.3 5.7 6.0 5.7 4.4 5.4 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6.5 7.2 6. 1 3. 1 5.3 5. 1 4.4 1.3 4. I 5.7 0.9 4.7 -2.4 3.5 3.8 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE 8ANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 4 MONEY STOCK (MIA) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS — JUL. 360.9 AUG. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 400 360.2 359.8 360.5 363.9 I I I I 4 18 2 IS 30 13 27 AUG 10 I 24 JAN SEP 1980 FEB 15 29 12 26 MAR LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING-. AUGUST 5, 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. MIA CONSISTS OF CURRENCY AND COIN PLUS COMMERCIAL BANK DEMAND DEPOSITS HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC EXCLUDING THOSE HELD BY FOREIGN BANKS AND OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS. MONEY STOCK (MIA) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 8/6/80 11/5/80 1/7/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/4/81 3/4/81 4/8/81 5/6/81 6/3/81 -9.3 -5.8 -6.2 -6.1 -5.8 -1.3 -3.2 -4.0 -3.9 -2.6 -3.9 -3.9 -6.6 -5.8 -5.0 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 7/81 4/81 4/81 8/81 6/81 3/81 8/81 5/81 4.9 -3.3 -4.9 -4.8 -4. 1 -4.4 -4.6 -4.5 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -17.8 -17.2 -14.4 -12.0 -11.4 -10.6 -10.0 - 27.5 - 19.3 - 14.6 - 13.3 - 1 1 .9 - 10.9 t PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONEY STOCK ( MlB ) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS 427.4 426.6 428.6 433.7 425 420 415 410 405 400 395 390 « I® 2 18 30 13 27 AUG 10 24 I 22 5 IS 3 17 31 SEP 14 28 JAN II 25 11 25 8 22 6 20 FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 5, 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. MIB CONSISTS OF MIA PLUS OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL DEPOSITARY INSTITUTIONS. MONEY STOCK (MIB) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 8/6/80 11/5/80 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 1/7/81 2/4/81 3/4/81 11.1 12. 1 14.3 9. 1 6.9 6.0 12.8 15.5 8.8 6.3 5.3 17.3 7.9 5. 1 4.2 4/8/81 5/6/81 6/3/81 -5.7 -4.0 -0.9 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 7/81 4/81 4/81 8/81 6/81 3/81 8/81 5/81 8.8 9.0 9.4 10.0 1 1.1 8.9 7.8 7.2 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1.5 3.9 6.0 8.3 5.6 4.5 4.0 4.5 2. 1 1 .6 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF 6T. LOUIS 5 6 YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 22.0 PERCENT 22.0 21 .0 21 .0 ME BANK AN RATE 20.0 19.0 90 DAY CD'S 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6 20 JUN 4 18 I IS 29 12 10 24 7 21 NOV JUL 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 FEB DEC 13 27 MAR 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 1980 JUNE 5 12 19 26 JULY 3 10 17 24 31 AUG. 7 14 X 21 28 14 28 1981 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING, AUGUST 14. 1981 17 31 APR 1981 90 DAY CD'S PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER KXX PRIME BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES CORPORATE Aaa bonds CORPORATE Baa BONDS MUNICIPAL BONDS ** 17.37 16.72 16.60 16.97 17.10 17.68 17.47 18. 18 17.82 18.04 17.85 16,56 15.91 15.65 15.92 16.07 16.60 16.55 17.13 16.77 17.16 16.93 16.77 16. 17 16. 15 16.26 16.58 17.03 16.86 17.55 17.26 17.41 17.20 13.84 13.73, 13.61 13.77 14,04 14.19 14.25 14.55 14.61 14,82 14.59 15.78 15.76 15.75 15.82 15.97 16.05 16.15 16.30 16.25 16.31 16.20 10.59 10.63 10.73 10.74 10.85 10.97 11.09 11.34 1 1.44 11.63 N. A. IK AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. XX BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONOS, THURSDAY DATA. X** DATA ARE 4-MONTH COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES. N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 0 SELECTED INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT PERCENT 22.0 rr ~Z2 22.0 E z 21.0 E 20.0 \ E / v / = 18.0 E f E i 17.0 E 15.0 14.0 r~j~ E / 13.0 E r \ /A \ /'x.-N J 19.0 E 18.0 = 3-MONT y... ASURY 17.0 E 16.0 \ A v A = . ,7 E 15.0 f J E \ \ 14.0 “w“ a E 13.0 V 1 E 12.0 E 5-YE>VR TREASU RY SE<IURITI ES 11.0 A A D1SCOU NT 5 A 1 / 6 20 JUN 10.0 E v 8.0 K E A 9.0 0 ' [\\ E 11.0 7.0 , / E 1 \ 16.0 10.0 A /X J 1 v 'V 21 .0 20.0 1* / 19.0 12.0 E F EDERA L FUNDS RATE 9.0 E 8.0 E 7.0 HI -LUX XIX .tin .in -ILL 1111 XLL Xl.L. 111 -lux -LLL -LLLL _llL 4 18 JUL I 15 29 AUG 12 26 SEP 1980 10 24 OCT 7 21 NOV 5 19 DEC 2 16 30 JAN 13 FEB 27 13 27 MAR 10 24 APR 8 22 MAY 1981 5 19 JUN 3 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING; AUGUST 14. 1981 JUNE 5 12 19 26 JULY 3 10 17 24 31 AUG. 7 14 * 21 28 FEDERAL FUNDS »B* 18.40 19.33 19. 10 19.20 18.84 19.93 18.76 19.05 18.54 18.25 18.29 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL 15.69 14.79 14.31 14.39 14.34 14.82 14.56 15.50 15.07 15.43 15.19 6-MONTH TREASURY BILL *** 14.49 14.00 13.36 13.94 13.62 14.05 14.23 15.32 14.79 15.57 15.12 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL T3.53 13. 15 13.03 13.20 13.30 13.58 13.56 14.40 14.25 14.63 14.38 5-YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES 14.06 13.83 13.81 14.05 14.28 14.48 14.53 15. 17 15. 13 15,45 15.02 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. m SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE. *06K NEW ISSUE RATE RATES ON LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES ARE COMPUTED BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. TREASURY BILL YIELDS ON DISCOUNT BASIS. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS * 7 17 31 JUL 14 28 AUG 1981 LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES 12.93 12.73 12.62 12.92 13.22 13.28 13.29 13.74 13.76 14.04 13.75 0 MULTIPLIERS!/ CURRENCY OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES v AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EATIQ MONEY MULTIPLIERS AUG. ill I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 5, 1981 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I 24 “ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF -----THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING AUGUST 5, I 1981 -------FROM - THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: —JUN. MAY -APR. MAR. - FEB. NOV. - AUG. 3, 6, 8, 4, 4, 5, 6, 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1980 1980 7.0 6,5 7.7 7.6 7.7 6.8 7.6 CURRENCY J981 JUL. BILLION? 1 20.2 1.1 1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 I I I I I I 4 18 2 16 SO 13 27 AUG 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 5. 14 28 JAN 1 FEB 25 II 25 MAR 8 22 6 20 3 MAY JUN 17 1 IS 29 12 26 1981 1/ RATIO OF MOhCY STOCK (MIA) OR (MIB) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE 2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK (MIA) AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS billions of dollars 285 BILLIONS Z 280 236.7 240. 1 235.6 234.6 235. 1 238.6 AUG 275 270 265 260 245 240 235 4 18 2 18 30 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 JAN I I 25 FEB 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 MAR 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING-. AUGUST 5. 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK (MIA) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 8/6/80 11/5/80 1/7/81 2/4/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 3/4/81 4/8/81 -6.6 -8.5 -8.8 -9.1 - 7.5 - 8.3 - 8.8 5/6/81 6/3/81 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 7/81 4/81 4/81 8/81 6/81 3/81 8/81 5/81 3.2 -8.0 -10.4 -10.4 -9.6 -9.8 -9.8 -9.9 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -26.7 -26.2 -22.8 -20.0 -19.0 -17.7 -17.0 -39.3 -29.4 -23.7 -21.7 -19.5 -18.4 -16.9 -12.6 -12.6 -11.9 -11.7 -10.9 -10.7 -9.9 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 9 10 SAV NGS PLUS SMALL T I ME DEPOS TS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 500 r--------- 1------------- 1------ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------------------- -------- -j 500 millions 489.5 490.2 490.9 492.8 6 20 4 18 2 16 30 AUG 27 13 10 SEP 24 • 22 S 19 3 17 31 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 5, 14 28 JAN II FEB 23 II MAR 25 3 17 I IS 29 12 26 8 22 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN *100,000. SAVINGS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, 8/6/80 11/5/BO 1/7/81 AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 2/4/81 3/4/81 4/8/81 5/6/81 6/3/81 4.4 3.4 4.0 4.2 4.8 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.3 3.5 4. 1 5. 1 5.5 6.3 6.5 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 7/81 4/81 4/81 8/81 6/81 3/81 8/81 5/81 9.8 9. 1 8.2 7.9 7.2 7. 1 6.9 7.0 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9. 1 7.4 7. 1 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.2 3.9 4.8 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.9 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4-0 r-------- ,------------- 1----1981 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ------------------- -------- -i 4.0 M»LL | (MS — JUL. I I I I 4 16 2 JUN 16 30 JUL 13 27 AUG 10 24 SEP 1980 8 22 OCT 5 19 3 NOV 17 31 DEC 14 28 JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 12. I I 25 FEB I 1 25 8 22 MAR APR 6 20 MAY 1981 3 17 JUN JUL AUG 1981 BUSINESS LOANS (COMMERCIAL AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 186 184 182 180 178 176 INDUSTRIAL) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RA IES — OF CHANGE, AVERAGE 0 - the four Weeks end in G _ AUGUST 5, 1981 FROM _ THE FOUR WEEKS END IN G: — JUN. - MAY __APR. MAR. “ FEB. — NOV. - AUG. 3, 1981 6. 1981 8, 1981 4. 1981 4, 1981 5, 1980 6, 1980 / r- 22.9 23.3 22.8 16.7 I1.2 12.4 14.2 J 170 168 166 164 162 160 1 z1 - . u _____ j A / - V- 182 178 ~ r--------- 184 180 - 174 172 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 186 ~ / V/ - 176 174 172 170 168 - 166 164 162 8 180,815 15 180,589 160 22 180,696 29 181,375 “ AUG. 5 184,787 ^ 158 111111111111111 iis V _ 158 s 1 1 1. 1111 4 2 18 JUN 16 JUL in 30 13 27 AUG 111 10 24 SEP 1980 1111 -Ll.,1. 8 22 OCT 5 19 NOV 1111 3 17 DEC LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: AUGUST 5, http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 111 ..u.i. 31 14 28 JAN 11 FEB 25 111 -LI 1 1 11 25 a 22 6 20 APR MAY 1981 MAR 3 17 JUN 1 15 JUL 29 12 26 AUG 1981 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 11 12 LARGE TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 250 r=-------- ,-------------- ,------ 2 16 30 IS 27 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 I I 25 I I 1980 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING-. AUGUST 5. 25 ILL IONS OF DOLLARS 8 22 6 20 3 17 I 981 1981 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF $100,000 OR MORE. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS