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USFinancialData September 19, 2003 Final Edition Calendar of Releases Titles below are links to their respective web sites. MONDAY* September 15 Industrial Production (Aug) A: 0.1% P: 0.2% TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY* FRIDAY September 16 September 17 September 18 September 19 A: 0.3% CPI (Aug) P: 0.4% Treasury Budget (Aug) A: –$76.5B P: –$78.0B Initial Claims A: 399K P: 410K Capacity Utilization (Aug) A: 74.6% P: 74.6% FOMC Meeting Statement Housing Starts (Aug) A: 1.82M P: 1.81M Leading Indicators (Aug) A: 0.4% P: 0.4% Business Inventories (Jul) A: –0.1% P: –0.2% Latest issue Monetary Trends Building Permits (Aug) A: 1.89M P: 1.78M FOMC Minutes (previous meeting) Current Account (Q2) A: –$137.8B P: –$139.0B September 22 September 23 September 24 September 25 Initial Claims F: 400K P: 405K Existing Home Sales (Aug) F: 6.04M P: 6.00M September 26 F: 3.1% GDP (Q2) P: 3.1% Corporate Profits (Q2) New Home Sales (Aug) F: 1100K P: 1108K Dur Goods Orders (Aug) F: 0.6% P: 0.4% Help Wanted Index (Aug) September 29 Personal Income (Aug) F: 0.3% Consumption (Aug) F: 0.8% September 30 Consumer Conf (Sep) F: 82.5 October 1 October 2 October 3 ISM Index (Sep) F: 55.0 Initial Claims F: 400K Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) F: –13K Construc Spending (Aug) F: 0.4% Factory Orders (Aug) F: 0.8% Unemploym’t Rate (Sep) F: 6.2% ISM Non Mfg Index (Sep) F: 62.5 DEFINITIONS: A, actual value; P, previous week’s forecast; F, current week’s forecast; K, thousand; M, million; B, billion. *The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides H.3, H.4.1, and H.6 releases each Thursday and H.10 and H.15 releases each Monday. Forecast data are from Thomson Financial. Thomson Financial, 2003. All Rights Reserved. Use, duplication, or sale of this service or the data contained herein, except as described in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Subscription Agreement, is strictly prohibited. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves MZM M2 Yields on Selected Securities Yields on Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Treasury Securities Federal Funds Futures Market Equity Price Indices Crude Oil Prices Natural Gas Prices Exchange Rates Currency, Savings, and Small Time Deposits Large Time Deposits, Retail Money Funds, and Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Bank Loans Commercial Paper Reference Tables Notes Conventions used in this publication: 1. Unless otherwise indicated, figure and table data are weekly and seasonally adjusted. 2. For pages 7, 10, 12 (top chart), 13, and 18 (top and bottom right tables), the last observation is a daily average that incorporates all available data at the time of publication, which usually includes observations for the first three trading days of the week (Monday through Wednesday). The previous observations signify that week’s average. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, U.S. Financial Data Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8590. To be added to our free email notification list, please visit our web site at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd. updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 760 750 740 730 720 710 700 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2002 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Adjusted Monetary Base To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 09/18/02 12/11/02 02/19/03 03/19/03 04/16/03 05/14/03 06/25/03 02/19/03 7.5 03/19/03 7.4 9.3 04/16/03 7.1 8.4 6.1 05/14/03 6.9 7.8 5.7 5.2 06/25/03 6.1 6.5 4.4 3.8 3.2 07/23/03 6.1 6.4 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.5 08/20/03 6.2 6.6 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.8 6.9 09/17/03 6.0 6.3 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 5.7 07/23/03 5.6 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 101 98 95 92 89 86 83 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2002 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 09/04/02 11/27/02 02/05/03 03/05/03 04/02/03 04/30/03 06/11/03 02/05/03 14.4 03/05/03 4.9 -3.2 04/02/03 5.7 -0.2 -14.9 04/30/03 3.6 -2.2 -13.6 -0.5 06/11/03 8.1 5.1 0.8 14.2 15.4 07/09/03 6.2 2.9 -1.5 8.0 7.1 15.3 08/06/03 5.8 2.8 -1.0 6.9 5.9 11.3 -4.8 09/03/03 10.4 8.9 7.5 16.1 17.0 24.3 18.3 07/09/03 36.5 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data MZM Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2002 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 MZM To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 09/09/02 12/02/02 02/10/03 03/10/03 04/07/03 05/05/03 06/16/03 02/10/03 7.6 03/10/03 7.3 4.4 04/07/03 6.3 3.4 2.8 05/05/03 6.0 3.5 3.2 2.0 06/16/03 7.3 5.8 6.8 7.2 10.2 07/14/03 8.8 8.1 10.0 11.1 14.4 18.9 08/11/03 8.8 8.1 9.8 10.6 13.0 15.8 16.7 09/08/03 8.5 7.8 9.2 9.7 11.6 13.4 12.8 07/14/03 6.8 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data M2 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 6300 6200 6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5600 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2002 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 M2 To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 09/09/02 12/02/02 02/10/03 03/10/03 04/07/03 05/05/03 06/16/03 02/10/03 6.9 03/10/03 7.2 6.8 04/07/03 6.3 5.3 4.4 05/05/03 6.6 6.0 6.0 4.7 06/16/03 7.9 7.9 9.0 9.1 12.8 07/14/03 8.2 8.4 9.5 9.7 12.5 13.8 08/11/03 8.1 8.2 9.1 9.2 11.2 11.8 9.3 09/08/03 7.9 8.0 8.6 8.6 10.2 10.4 8.0 07/14/03 6.3 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/22/03 U.S. Financial Data Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 7 Corporate Aaa 6 5 Prime Rate 4 3 2-Year Swap 2 1 Commercial Paper 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2002 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Percent 6 5 10-Year Treasury 4 3 Federal Funds Rate 2 Intended Federal Funds Rate 1 3-Month Treasury 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2002 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Averages of Daily Figures Percent 6 5 4 3 2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2003 Jun Jul Aug Sep Feb Mar Apr May 2003 Jun Jul Aug Sep Mar Apr May 2003 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2002 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Averages of Daily Figures Percent 4 3 2 1 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2002 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spread Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2002 Nov Dec Jan Feb Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts Daily Data Percent 1.3 1.2 1.1 Oct 2003 || || || 1.0 Intended Target Rate Sep 2003 Nov 2003 0.9 0.8 May Apr Jun Aug Jul Sep 2003 Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates Percent 1.15 1.10 1.05 08/20/03 09/17/03 1.00 Intended Target Rate as of 09/17/03 0.95 07/23/03 0.90 Sep 2003 Oct 2003 Dec 2003 Nov 2003 Jan 2004 Feb 2004 Contract Month Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Dow Jones Industrial Average Averages of Daily Figures 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2002 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Wilshire 5000 and Standard & Poor’s 500 Averages of Daily Figures January 2, 1980 = 1078.29 1941-43 = 10 10500 1050 10000 1000 9500 950 S&P* (right scale) 9000 900 8500 850 Wilshire** (left scale) 8000 800 7500 750 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2002 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 *Copyright 2003 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Standard & Poor’s including its subsidiary corporations ("S&P") is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited without S&P’s prior written permission. **Source: Wilshire Associates Incorporated, www.wilshire.com Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Crude Oil Spot Prices West Texas Intermediate, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per barrel 40 36 32 28 24 20 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2002 May Jun Aug Jul Sep 2003 Crude Oil Futures Prices West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel 30 29 28 27 09/10/2003 09/17/2003 26 25 Oct Nov 2003 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2004 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Natural Gas Spot Prices Henry Hub, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per million btu 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2002 May Jun Aug Jul Sep 2003 Natural Gas Futures Prices Henry Hub Dollars per million btu 6.00 5.50 09/10/2003 5.00 09/17/2003 4.50 4.00 Oct Nov 2003 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2004 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures March 1973=100 January 1987=100 115 135 110 130 Broad Index (right scale) 105 125 100 120 Major Index (left scale) 95 115 90 110 85 105 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2002 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Exchange Rates Averages of Daily Figures Euro/US$ Yen/US$ 1.10 132 1.05 128 Euro (left scale) 1.00 124 0.95 120 Japan (right scale) 0.90 116 0.85 112 0.80 108 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2002 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 660 640 620 600 Aug Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2002 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 950 3200 930 3100 910 3000 Small Time (left scale) 890 2900 870 2800 Savings (right scale) 850 2700 830 2600 810 2500 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2002 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Large Time Deposits and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1000 950 Retail Money 900 850 800 Large Time 750 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2002 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Total Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2002 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2003 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 09/18/03 U.S. Financial Data Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 6300 4900 6100 4700 Bank Credit (left scale) 5900 4500 5700 4300 Loans and Leases (right scale) 5500 4100 5300 3900 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2002 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1025 525 1000 500 Large Banks (right scale) 975 475 950 450 All Banks (left scale) 925 425 900 400 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2002 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/22/03 U.S. Financial Data Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies Not Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 205 185 165 145 125 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2002 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Jun Jul Aug Sep 2003 Commercial Paper of Financial Companies Not Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1240 1220 1200 1180 1160 1140 1120 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2002 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2003 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 09/22/03 U.S. Financial Data Interest Rates Percent 30-Day Comm. Paper Jun Jul Aug Sep 90-Day CDs 2-Year Interest Corporate Corporate Rate Swap Aaa Bonds Baa Bonds Municipal Bonds Federal Funds 3-Month Treasury Bill 2-Year Treasury Securities 5-Year Treasury Securities 10-Year Treasury Securities Treasury Long-Term Average 27 0.97 0.98 1.43 5.06 6.26 4.47 1.21 0.86 1.28 2.36 3.42 4.54 4 1.01 1.05 1.52 5.20 6.36 4.51 1.13 0.87 1.31 2.49 3.58 4.67 11 1.01 1.04 1.55 5.30 6.42 4.56 0.96 0.88 1.35 2.60 3.72 4.78 18 1.01 1.05 1.64 5.45 6.57 4.71 1.02 0.89 1.45 2.82 3.93 4.95 25 1.02 1.05 1.73 5.62 6.75 4.83 1.01 0.91 1.56 3.08 4.18 5.15 1 1.02 1.07 1.91 5.84 6.97 5.07 1.04 0.95 1.71 3.31 4.40 5.38 8 1.03 1.08 2.06 5.83 6.98 5.06 0.97 0.94 1.77 3.24 4.34 5.38 15 1.03 1.08 2.10 5.93 7.07 5.18 0.98 0.94 1.82 3.35 4.49 5.48 22 1.04 1.08 2.17 5.89 7.02 5.10 1.18 0.95 1.89 3.39 4.47 5.41 29 1.02 1.09 2.27 5.87 6.97 5.07 1.00 0.98 1.98 3.49 4.49 5.37 5 1.04 1.10 2.25 5.90 6.96 5.07 1.01 0.95 1.92 3.51 4.52 5.41 12 1.01 1.08 1.99 5.78 6.86 4.94 0.96 0.94 1.69 3.23 4.34 5.30 19 * 1.02 1.08 1.92 5.76 6.82 . 1.02 0.93 1.63 3.10 4.26 5.25 *Averages of rates available Money Stock and Components Reserves and Base Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Jul Aug Sep M2 MZM Currency Small Time Savings Large Time Retail Money 28 6086.7 6426.0 646.8 839.0 3096.3 893.5 871.7 4 6121.0 6457.3 647.1 835.6 3114.4 901.3 869.4 11 6134.4 6465.6 648.0 833.4 3151.0 908.8 870.5 18 6175.0 6504.8 649.0 830.7 3173.9 895.7 866.4 25 6112.8 6453.2 650.7 828.4 3130.7 889.8 871.4 1 6120.3 6453.8 650.7 826.3 3148.9 887.0 868.1 8 6116.2 6457.0 651.0 824.1 3152.1 896.8 863.5 Bank Loans and Credit Jun Jul Aug Sep Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves 25 740.529 91.316 9 741.226 92.784 23 743.392 92.579 6 744.925 91.799 20 748.447 95.719 3 752.541 97.418 17 744.504 . Exchange Rate: Euro/$ Exchange Rate: Yen/$ Exchange Rates Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Aug Sep Bank Credit Loans and Leases C&I Loans (All) C&I Loans (Large) Comm. Paper (nsa) Total Borrowings 6 6236.4 4442.0 920.4 459.6 138.6 0.154 13 6213.4 4455.7 918.2 458.6 134.8 20 6186.5 4422.1 918.3 459.0 27 6190.4 4430.6 920.5 3 6212.6 4445.7 917.1 10 17 . . . . . . Major Broad Exchange Exchange Rate Index Rate Index 8 91.1 120.1 0.881 119.7 0.145 15 90.9 119.9 0.885 118.9 138.3 0.937 22 91.9 120.8 0.906 118.4 459.9 134.0 0.157 29 92.1 121.0 0.916 117.4 458.0 134.0 0.166 5 91.5 120.5 0.916 116.5 133.2 0.158 12 90.4 119.7 0.893 116.9 0.162 19 * 90.2 119.5 0.890 116.6 . . 138.3 Aug Sep *Averages of rates available Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. Financial Data Definitions M1: The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float. M2: M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts. M3: M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits; repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all banking offices in Canada and the United Kingdom; and institutional money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000 or more). Notes Page 3: Adjusted Monetary Base equals the sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 1996b, 2001). Page 4: Adjusted Reserves is defined as the sum of vault cash and Federal Reserve Bank deposits held by depository institutions and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series, a spliced chain index, is numerically larger than the Board of Governors’ measure, which excludes vault cash not used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements and Federal Reserve Bank deposits used to satisfy required clearing balance contracts; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 2001). Page 5: MZM includes the zero maturity, or immediately available, components of M3. MZM equals M2 minus small-denomination time deposits, plus institutional money market mutual funds (that is, the money market mutual funds included in M3 but excluded from M2). The label MZM, or “Money, Zero Maturity,” was coined by William Poole (1991) for this aggregate, proposed earlier by Motley (1988). Readers are cautioned that since early 1994 the level and growth of M1 have been depressed by retail sweep programs that reclassify transactions deposits (demand deposits and other checkable deposits) as savings deposits overnight, thereby reducing banks’ required reserves; see Anderson and Rasche (2001) and research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/swdata.html. Page 7: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the Intended Federal Funds Rate. Federal Funds Rate represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the release. Page 8: 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield is the most recently issued inflation-indexed bond of 10-year original maturity. 10-Year InflationIndexed Treasury Yield Spread equals the difference between the yield on the most recently issued 10-year inflation-indexed bond and the unadjusted 10-Year Treasury Note Yield of similar maturity. Page 13: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 release. The Major Index comprises 7 currencies. The Broad Index comprises the Major Index plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Page 14: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Savings Deposits is the sum of money market deposit accounts and passbook and statement savings. Small Time Deposits have a minimum initial maturity of 7 days. Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. Page 15: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Large Time Deposits are deposits of $100,000 or more. Retail Money Funds are included in M2. Retail money funds were originally called general purpose and broker/ dealer money market funds. Large time deposits and retail money funds are at all depository institutions. As of January 9, 2003, Total Borrowings includes primary, secondary, and seasonal credit. Prior to that, borrowings include seasonal, adjustment, and extended credit. Page 16: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. Bank Loans and Credit include foreign-related institutions. Bank Credit includes loans and leases and securities. All Banks includes foreign-related institutions. Large Banks are domestically chartered banks (adjusted for mergers) and report on a weekly basis. Page 17: Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/table1.htm. Page 18: Treasury Security yields are Treasury constant maturities as reported in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s H.15 release. The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the secondary market yield from the H.15 release. Federal Funds represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the table. Municipal Bonds represents Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Sources Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Monetary aggregates and components: H.6 release. Bank credit: H.8 release. Total Borrowings: H.4.1 release. Interest rates: H.15 release. Exchange rates: H.10 release. Commercial paper: Board of Governors web site. Chicago Board of Trade Federal funds futures contract. Dow Jones Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted monetary base, adjusted reserves, and MZM. Standard & Poor’s Standard & Poor’s 500 composite index. U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. inflation-indexed security yields. Wall Street Journal Oil (West Texas intermediate) and natural gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices. Wilshire Associates Incorporated (www.wilshire.com) Wilshire 5000 . Page 9: Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts trace through time the yield on three specific contracts. Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates displays a single day’s snapshot of yields for contracts expiring in the months shown on the horizontal axis. Page 11: Crude Oil (West Texas intermediate) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 12: Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 U.S. Financial Data References Anderson, Richard G. and Robert H. Rasche (1996a). “A Revised Measure of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 78(2), pp. 3-13. ____ and ____(1996b). “Measuring the Adjusted Monetary Base in an Era of Financial Change,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/ December, 78(6), pp. 3-37. Motley, Brian (1988). “Should M2 Be Redefined?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Winter, pp. 33-51. Poole, William (1991). Statement before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, November 6, 1991. Government Printing Office, Serial No. 102-82. Note: Articles from this Bank’s Review are available on the Internet at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/. ____ and ____(2001). “Retail Sweep Programs and Bank Reserves, 1994-1999,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February, pp. 51-72. 20 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis