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USFinancialData September 13, 2013 Final Edition Calendar of Releases Titles for the current week are links to their respective releases. MONDAY* September 9 TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY* FRIDAY September 10 September 11 September 12 September 13 Consumer Credit (Jul) A: $10.4B PF: $12.5B Initial Claims (9/7) A: 292K PF: 328K A: 0.3% PPI (Aug) PF: 0.2% Import Prices (Aug) A: 0.0% PF: 0.4% Core PPI (Aug) A: 0.0% PF: 0.1% Treasury Budget (Aug) A: -$147.9B PF: -$152.0B Retail Sales (Aug) A: 0.2% PF: 0.4% Business Inventories (Jul) PF: 0.2% A: 0.4% September 16 September 17 Industrial Production (Aug) CPI (Aug) CF: 0.4% PF: 0.3% CF: 0.2% PF: 0.2% Capacity Utilization (Aug) CF: 77.8% PF: 77.8% CPI Core (Aug) PF: 0.2% CF: 0.2% September 18 September 19 Housing Starts (Aug) CF: 920K PF: 913K Initial Claims (9/14) CF: 330K PF: N/A Building Permits (Aug) CF: 950K PF: 950K Current Account (Q2) CF: -$97.2B PF: -$96.8B FOMC Meeting Statement September 23 September 24 September 20 Existing Home Sales (Aug) CF: 5.25M PF: 5.34M September 25 September 26 September 27 New Home Sales (Aug) CF: 428K Initial Claims (9/21) CF: N/A Personal Income (Aug) CF: 0.3% Durable Goods (Aug) CF: 0.5% GDP (Q2) CF: 2.5% Consumption (Aug) CF: 0.3% Corporate Profits (Q2) Core PCE (Aug) CF: 0.1% DEFINITIONS: A, actual value; PF, previous week’s forecast; CF, current week’s forecast; K, thousand; M, million; B, billion. *The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides H.3, H.4.1, and H.6 releases each Thursday and H.10 and H.15 releases each Monday. Forecast data are from Thomson Reuters. ©Thomson Reuters, 20 . All Rights Reserved. Use, duplication, or sale of this service or the data contained herein, except as described in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Subscription Agreement, is strictly prohibited. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves MZM M2 Composition of Federal Reserve Assets and Liabilities Reserve Bank Credit and Selected Categories Other Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items Yields on Selected Securities Corporate Bond Spreads and Mortgage Interest Rates Yields on Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Treasury Securities Federal Funds Futures Market Equity Price Indices Crude Oil Prices Natural Gas Prices Exchange Rates Currency, Savings, and Small Time Deposits Institutional and Retail Money Funds, and Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Bank Loans Commercial Paper Outstanding Reference Tables Notes Conventions used in this publication: 1. Unless otherwise indicated, figure and table data are weekly and seasonally adjusted. 2. For pages 10, 14, 15 (top chart), 16 (top chart), and 22 (top table), the last observation is a daily average that incorporates all available data at the time of publication, which usually includes observations for the first three trading days of the week (Monday through Wednesday). The previous observations signify that week’s average. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, U.S. Financial Data Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8590. To be added to our free email notification list, please visit our web site at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd. updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2012 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2013 Adjusted Monetary Base To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 09/05/12 11/28/12 02/06/13 03/06/13 04/03/13 05/01/13 06/12/13 02/06/13 13.0 03/06/13 17.7 38.2 04/03/13 21.0 39.6 46.1 05/01/13 22.4 38.4 41.7 38.9 06/12/13 27.0 42.1 46.4 46.1 46.7 07/10/13 25.3 37.6 38.9 37.1 35.0 35.7 08/07/13 28.2 40.4 42.7 41.9 41.3 43.7 34.9 09/04/13 29.1 40.3 42.3 41.5 40.9 42.7 36.3 07/10/13 51.8 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2012 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2013 Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 09/05/12 11/28/12 02/06/13 03/06/13 04/03/13 05/01/13 06/12/13 02/06/13 15.3 03/06/13 22.3 49.9 04/03/13 30.9 60.5 85.6 05/01/13 31.9 56.5 68.8 68.6 06/12/13 40.7 65.4 79.5 82.5 07/10/13 36.5 55.5 61.7 60.0 49.4 53.5 08/07/13 42.3 62.0 70.0 70.2 63.5 71.1 50.5 09/04/13 43.4 61.5 68.2 68.1 62.3 67.8 52.7 07/10/13 74.7 87.7 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data MZM Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 12100 12000 11900 11800 11700 11600 11500 11400 11300 11200 11100 11000 10900 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2012 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2013 MZM To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 09/03/12 11/26/12 02/04/13 03/04/13 04/01/13 04/29/13 06/10/13 02/04/13 9.2 03/04/13 7.7 04/01/13 7.2 6.1 1.9 04/29/13 7.3 6.4 3.9 6.2 06/10/13 6.8 5.9 4.0 5.3 07/08/13 6.8 6.0 4.4 5.5 5.9 5.0 08/05/13 7.7 7.3 6.4 7.7 8.4 8.6 12.0 09/02/13 7.3 6.8 6.0 7.0 7.4 7.3 8.9 07/08/13 6.6 5.7 10.3 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data M2 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 11000 10900 10800 10700 10600 10500 10400 10300 10200 10100 10000 9900 9800 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2012 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2013 M2 To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 09/03/12 11/26/12 02/04/13 03/04/13 04/01/13 04/29/13 06/10/13 02/04/13 8.0 03/04/13 6.6 4.8 04/01/13 6.4 4.9 2.0 04/29/13 6.5 5.3 3.8 6.3 06/10/13 6.1 5.0 3.7 5.2 07/08/13 6.1 5.1 4.2 5.4 5.5 4.7 08/05/13 6.9 6.3 6.0 7.3 7.8 7.9 11.1 09/02/13 6.6 6.0 5.6 6.7 7.0 6.9 8.5 07/08/13 5.2 9.6 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Composition of Federal Reserve Assets End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 4000 Market Adjustment to Treasury and MBS Portfolio Short-Term Lending to Financial Firms and Markets 3500 Rescue Operations Operations Focused on Longer-Term Credit Conditions Traditional Portfolio 3000 Traditional Portfolio and Long-Term Assets 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Composition of Federal Reserve Liabilities End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 4000 Source Base (not adjusted for reserve requirement changes) 3500 Treasury Financing Account Traditional Liabilities and Capital Account 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Reserve Bank Credit and Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 3900 3600 Reserve Bank Credit 3300 3000 2700 2400 2100 U.S. Treasury Securities 1800 1500 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Term Deposits Held by Depository Institutions End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of dollars 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Federal Reserve Holdings of Agency Debt and Mortgage-Backed Securities Averages of Daily Figures Millions of Dollars 1400 1200 Mortgage-Backed Securities 1000 800 600 400 200 Purchases of Agency Debt 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Maturity Distribution of U.S. Treasury Securities Held by the Federal Reserve Billions of Dollars 900 800 700 600 500 1 Year or Less 5 to 10 Years 400 1 to 5 Years 300 Over 10 Years 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 5 4 Corporate Aaa Prime Rate 3 2 1 2-Year Swap 30-Day Nonfinancial Commercial Paper 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Jun Jul Aug Sep Percent 4 3 10-Year Treasury 2 1 Federal Funds Rate FFR Target Range | | 3-Month Treasury | | | | | 0 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Corporate Bond Yields Relative to Yields on 10 - Year Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3.5 Baa - 10Y 3.0 2.5 Aaa - 10Y 2.0 1.5 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Interest Rates on 30 - Year Conforming and Jumbo Mortgages Averages of Daily Figures Percent 5.3 4.8 Jumbo 4.3 3.8 Conforming 3.3 2.8 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Treasury Note Yields Averages of Daily Figures Percent 4 30-Year 3 10-Year 2 5-Year 1 0 Jul Aug Oct Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yields Averages of Daily Figures Percent 2 1 30-Year 0 10-Year -1 5-Year -2 Jul Aug Oct Sep Nov 2012 Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spreads Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3.0 30-Year 2.5 10-Year 2.0 5-Year 1.5 Jul Aug Oct Sep 2012 Nov Dec Jan Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts Daily Data Percent 0.30 0.25 0.20 Nov 2013 0.15 Sep 2013 | | | 0.10 Oct 2013 0.05 FFR Target Rate Range 0.00 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 2013 Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates Percent 0.14 0.13 Week Ending: 07/17/13 08/14/13 09/11/13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Contract Month Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Averages of Daily Figures Closing Price February 5, 1971 = 100 16000 3800 15000 3600 Dow Jones (left scale) 14000 3400 13000 3200 NASDAQ (right scale) 12000 3000 11000 2800 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Wilshire 5000 and Standard & Poor's 500 Averages of Daily Figures January 2, 1980 = 1078.29 1941-43 = 10 19000 1900 18000 1800 17000 1700 Wilshire** (left scale) 16000 1600 15000 1500 S&P* (right scale) 14000 1400 13000 1300 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep *Copyright 2011 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Standard & Poor's including its subsidiary corporations ("S&P") is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited without S&P's prior written permission. **Source: Wilshire Associates Incorporated, www.wilshire.com Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Crude Oil Spot Prices West Texas Intermediate, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per barrel 110 105 100 95 90 85 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr 2012 May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Crude Oil Futures Prices West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel 108 107 106 105 09/11/2013 104 103 09/04/2013 102 101 100 99 98 97 96 95 Oct Nov 2013 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2014 Jun Jul Aug Sep Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Natural Gas Spot Prices Henry Hub, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per million btu 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr 2012 May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Natural Gas Futures Prices Henry Hub Dollars per million btu 4.0 3.9 09/04/2013 3.8 3.7 3.6 09/11/2013 3.5 Oct Nov 2013 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2014 Jun Jul Aug Sep Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures March 1973=100 January 1987=100 85 105 Broad Index (right scale) 81 101 77 97 73 93 Major Index (left scale) 69 89 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Exchange Rates Averages of Daily Figures Euro/US$ Yen/US$ 0.90 105 0.85 99 Euro (left scale) 0.80 93 0.75 87 0.70 81 Japan (right scale) 0.65 75 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1150 1140 1130 1120 1110 1100 1090 1080 1070 1060 1050 1040 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1100 7500 1000 7000 900 6500 Savings (right scale) 800 6000 700 5500 Small Time (left scale) 600 5000 500 4500 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Institutional and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1900 1700 Institutional Money 1500 1300 1100 900 Retail Money 700 500 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Total Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Note: Total borrowings include loans to depository institutions for primary, secondary, and seasonal credit, primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also contains asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc.,net, term asset-backed securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 10200 7700 10100 7600 Bank Credit (left scale) 10000 7500 9900 7400 9800 7300 Loans and Leases (right scale) 9700 7200 9600 7100 9500 7000 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1630 900 1590 875 Large Banks (right scale) 1550 850 All Banks (left scale) 1510 825 1470 800 1430 775 1390 750 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Commercial Paper Outstanding of Nonfinancial Companies Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Sep Commercial Paper Outstanding: Financial and Asset-Backed Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 600 550 500 Financial 450 400 350 300 Asset-Backed 250 Jul Aug Sep Oct 2012 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 09/12/13 U.S. Financial Data Interest Rates Percent 30-Day Comm. Paper Jul 21 0.06 0.19 0.46 4.33 5.23 28 Jun 90-Day CDs 0.08 0.20 0.55 4.41 Federal Funds 3-Month Treasury Bill 2-Year Treasury Securities 5-Year Treasury Securities 10-Year Treasury Securities 30-Year Treasury Securities 4.37 0.10 0.05 0.31 1.22 2.33 3.43 5.42 4.63 0.10 0.06 0.39 1.44 2.55 3.56 2-Year Corporate Corporate Municipal Interest Rate Swap Aaa Bonds Baa Bonds Bonds 0.07 . 0.53 4.33 5.36 4.39 0.09 0.04 0.36 1.45 2.56 3.53 0.06 . 0.52 4.37 5.41 4.55 0.10 0.04 0.37 1.48 2.64 3.65 19 0.05 . 0.49 4.31 5.29 4.52 0.09 0.03 0.33 1.35 2.54 3.59 26 Aug 5 12 0.05 . 0.49 4.34 5.25 4.77 0.09 0.03 0.32 1.36 2.57 3.61 2 0.05 . 0.49 4.42 5.32 4.70 0.09 0.04 0.32 1.40 2.64 3.69 9 . 0.48 4.43 5.34 4.73 0.09 0.05 0.32 1.38 2.62 3.68 0.06 . 0.51 4.56 5.44 4.80 0.08 0.05 0.34 1.50 2.73 3.77 23 0.05 . 0.55 4.67 5.55 4.91 0.09 0.04 0.38 1.64 2.86 3.87 30 0.05 . 0.55 4.54 5.40 4.96 0.08 0.03 0.39 1.60 2.76 3.72 6 0.05 . 0.62 4.67 5.49 5.03 0.08 0.02 0.47 1.76 2.92 3.84 13 * Sep 0.05 16 0.05 . 0.61 4.71 5.54 . 0.08 0.02 0.47 1.74 2.93 3.86 *Averages of rates available Money Stock and Components Reserves and Base Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Savings Retail Money 555.8 6924.9 665.0 1135 553.8 6974.2 660.4 1765.2 1136 551.6 7000.9 659.5 1768.9 MZM 22 10716 11931 1132 29 Aug 10762 11974 5 10785 12002 Institutional Money 12 10762 11967 1137 550.6 7010.1 661.2 10742 11945 1138 548.9 6997.2 659.0 10778 11985 1141 545.8 7002.3 664.6 10790 12015 1141 543.3 7001.9 667.4 2122.98 26 1768.5 3191.758 2053.18 10 3272.734 2114.49 1752.2 2 3245.235 12 Jul 1751.9 26 Adjusted Reserves Jun 1755.7 19 Sep Adjusted Monetary Base 1771.1 Currency M2 Jul Small Time 24 Sep 3326.324 2167.84 7 3393.786 2266.90 21 Aug 3427.849 2274.85 4 3465.642 2316.59 Exchange Rates Bank Loans and Credit Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Bank Credit Loans and Leases C&I Loans (All) C&I Loans (Large) Comm. Paper (sa) Major Exchange Exchange Broad Exchange Exchange Rate: Rate: Euro/$ Yen/$ Rate Index Rate Index Total Borrowings Jul 31 10021.5 7322.7 1574.5 863.7 203.2 0.351 Jul 26 76.5 101.6 0.756 99.5 Aug 7 9989.0 7305.0 1571.0 860.5 197.5 0.316 Aug 2 76.4 101.9 0.754 98.5 14 9981.4 7293.6 1572.7 860.2 194.2 0.335 9 76.1 101.5 0.751 97.1 21 9984.1 7310.2 1570.4 861.2 210.8 0.344 16 76.1 101.7 0.753 97.6 28 9980.7 7309.7 1568.9 859.4 215.5 0.277 23 76.2 102.3 0.747 98.0 4 . . . . 215.5 0.270 30 76.6 102.9 0.752 98.1 11 Sep . . . . 227.6 0.273 6 77.0 103.1 0.760 99.5 Sep Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. Financial Data Definitions M1: The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float. M2: M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts. M3: M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits; repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all banking offices in Canada and the United Kingdom; and institutional money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000 or more). Notes Cover Page: Economic forecasts are median responses from the Thomson Reuters Weekly Economic Survey, which is sent out to 20 to 25 Wall Street economists each week (usually on Tuesday). These forecasts are released on Friday—at which time, Thursday’s USFD cover page will be updated. Page 3: Adjusted Monetary Base equals the sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 1996b, 2001, 2003). Page 4: Adjusted Reserves is defined as the sum of vault cash and Federal Reserve Bank deposits held by depository institutions and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series, a spliced chain index, is numerically larger than the Board of Governors’ measure, which excludes vault cash not used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements and Federal Reserve Bank deposits used to satisfy required clearing balance contracts; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 2001, 2003). Page 5: MZM includes the zero maturity, or immediately available, components of M3. MZM equals M2 minus small-denomination time deposits, plus institutional money market mutual funds (that is, the money market mutual funds included in M3 but excluded from M2). The label MZM, or “Money, Zero Maturity,” was coined by William Poole (1991) for this aggregate, proposed earlier by Motley (1988). Readers are cautioned that since early 1994 the level and growth of M1 have been depressed by retail sweep programs that reclassify transactions deposits (demand deposits and other checkable deposits) as savings deposits overnight, thereby reducing banks’ required reserves; see Anderson and Rasche (2001) and research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/swdata.html. Page 7: The asset groups are aggregates of the following categories on the H.4.1: Short-term lending to financial firms and markets is the sum of repurchase agreements, term auction credit, commercial paper funding facility, central bank liquidity swaps, money market investor funding facility, other loans (less AIG loan), and other assets. Rescue operations is the sum of credit extended to AIG, and net Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis portfolio holdings of Maiden Lanes I, II, III, and preferred interests in AIA Aurora and ALICO Holdings. Operations focused on long term credit conditions is the sum of Federal Reserve agency obligations held outright, mortgage backed securities, the term asset-backed securities loan facility (TALF), and the TALF LLC. Traditional portfolio is the sum of treasury securities, gold certificate account, special drawing rights, coin, items in process of collection, and bank premises. On the liability side, Source base is the sum of deposits of depository institutions and Federal Reserve notes. Treasury financing account appears on the H.4.1. Traditional liabilities and capital account is the sum of deferred availability cash items, foreign official account deposits, U.S. Treasury general account, accrued dividends, reverse repurchase agreements, other deposits, and capital accounts. H.4.1 data are not seasonally adjusted. Page 8: Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities include nominal securities, inflation-indexed securities, and the compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of inflation-indexed securities (inflation compensation). Term Deposits Held by Depository Institutions are interest-bearing deposits with a specific maturity date offered by the Federal Reserve Banks. For more information on the Term Deposit Facility, see http://www.frbservices.org/centralbank/term_deposit_facility.html. Page 9: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.4.1 release. For more information, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/recentactions.htm. Page 10: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the Intended Federal Funds Rate. Federal Funds Rate represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the release. Page 11: Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury security, Aaa- and Baarated corporate bonds, and the interest rate on 3-year conforming mortgages appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release. The interest rates on jumbo mortgages (typically, mortgages in excess of $417,000) are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Page 12: Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yields are the most recently issued inflation-indexed bonds of 5- ,10- , and 30-year original maturities. Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spreads equal the difference between yields on the most recently issued inflation-indexed bonds and the unadjusted Treasury Note Yields of similar maturities. Page 13: Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts trace through time the yield on three specific contracts. Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates displays a single day’s snapshot of yields for contracts expiring in the months shown on the horizontal axis. Page 15: Crude Oil (West Texas intermediate) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 16: Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 17: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 release. The Major Index comprises 7 currencies. The Broad Index comprises the Major Index plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Page 18: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Savings Deposits is the sum of money market deposit accounts and passbook and statement savings. Small Time Deposits have a minimum initial maturity of 7 days. Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. 23 U.S. Financial Data Page 19: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 and H.4.1 releases. Retail Money Funds are included in M2. Institutional Money Funds are not part of M2; they used to be included in M3, which was discontinued as of March 23, 2006. See www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted monetary base, adjusted reserves, and MZM. Total Borrowings include loans to depository institutions for (i) primary, secondary, and seasonal credit and (ii) primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also includes the assetbacked commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc., term assetbacked securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Data and recent information regarding Federal Reserve lending programs appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 release at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Standard & Poor’s Standard & Poor’s 500 composite index. Page 20: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. Bank Loans and Credit include foreign-related institutions. Bank Credit includes loans and leases and securities. All Banks includes foreign-related institutions. Large Banks are domestically chartered banks (adjusted for mergers) and report on a weekly basis. Page 21: Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/outstandings.htm. Page 22: Treasury Security yields are Treasury constant maturities as reported in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s H.15 release. The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the secondary market yield from the H.15 release. Federal Funds represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the table. Municipal Bonds represents Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Sources Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Monetary aggregates and components: H.6 release. Bank credit: H.8 release. Total Borrowings and Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items: H.4.1 release. Interest rates: H.15 release. Exchange rates: H.10 release. Commercial paper: Board of Governors web site. Chicago Board of Trade Federal funds futures contract. Dow Jones Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average. 24 NASDAQ Stock Market, Incorporated NASDAQ Composite®. U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. inflation-indexed security yields. Wall Street Journal Jumbo mortgage interest rates, oil (West Texas intermediate) and natural gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices. Wilshire Associates Incorporated (www.wilshire.com) Wilshire 5000 ®. References Anderson, Richard G. and Robert H. Rasche (1996a). “A Revised Measure of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 78(2), pp. 3-13. ____ and ____(1996b). “Measuring the Adjusted Monetary Base in an Era of Financial Change,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/ December, 78(6), pp. 3-37. ____ and ____(2001). “Retail Sweep Programs and Bank Reserves, 1994-1999,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February, pp. 51-72. ____ and ____ , with Jeffrey Loesel (2003). “A Reconstruction of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and Reserves,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October, 85(5), pp. 39-70. Motley, Brian (1988). “Should M2 Be Redefined?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Winter, pp. 33-51. Poole, William (1991). Statement before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, November 6, 1991. Government Printing Office, Serial No. 102-82. Note: Articles from this Bank’s Review are available on the Internet at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis