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USFinancialData November 28, 2008 Final Edition Calendar of Releases Titles for the current week are links to their respective releases. MONDAY* November 24 TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY* FRIDAY November 25 November 26 November 27 November 28 December 4 December 5 Existing Home Sales (Oct) GDP (Q3) A: 4.98M PF: 5.00M A: -0.5% PF: -0.5% Corporate Profits (Q3) Initial Claims (11/22) A: 529K PF: 537K New Home Sales (Oct) A: 433K PF: 450K Durable Goods (Oct) A: -6.2% PF: -2.6% Consumption (Oct) A: -1.0% PF: -0.9% Core PCE (Oct) PF: 0.0% A: 0.0% December 1 December 2 December 3 ISM Index (Nov) CF: 38.4 PF: 37.6 ISM Non Mfg Index (Nov) CF: 43.0 PF: 42.2 Initial Claims (11/29) CF: 529K PF: N/A Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) CF: -300K PF: -268K Construct Spending (Oct) CF: -0.9% PF: -0.8% Productivity (Q3) CF: 1.0% PF: 1.0% Factory Orders (Oct) CF: -2.8% PF: -1.9% Unemployment Rate (Nov) CF: 6.7% PF: 6.7% Latest Issue National Economic Trends Unit Labor Cost (Q3) CF: 3.6% PF: 3.7% Consumer Credit (Oct) CF: $2.4B PF: $2.3B Current Economic Conditions (Beige Book) December 8 December 9 December 10 Treasury Budget (Nov) CF: N/A December 11 December 12 Initial Claims (12/6) CF: N/A Retail Sales (Nov) CF: -1.0% International Trade (Oct) CF: -$54.2B Business Inventories (Oct) CF: -0.2% Import Prices (Nov) CF: -4.6% PPI (Nov) CF: -1.9% Quarterly Services (Q3) Core PPI (Nov) CF: 0.2% DEFINITIONS: A, actual value; PF, previous week’s forecast; CF, current week’s forecast; K, thousand; M, million; B, billion. *The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides H.3, H.4.1, and H.6 releases each Thursday and H.10 and H.15 releases each Monday. Forecast data are from Thomson Reuters. ©Thomson Reuters, 2008. All Rights Reserved. Use, duplication, or sale of this service or the data contained herein, except as described in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Subscription Agreement, is strictly prohibited. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves MZM M2 Yields on Selected Securities Yields on Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Treasury Securities Federal Funds Futures Market Equity Price Indices Crude Oil Prices Natural Gas Prices Exchange Rates Currency, Savings, and Small Time Deposits Institutional and Retail Money Funds, and Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Selected Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items Bank Loans Commercial Paper Reference Tables Notes Conventions used in this publication: 1. Unless otherwise indicated, figure and table data are weekly and seasonally adjusted. 2. For pages 7, 10, 11 (top chart), 12 (top chart), 13, and 19 (top and bottom right tables), the last observation is a daily average that incorporates all available data at the time of publication, which usually includes observations for the first three trading days of the week (Monday through Wednesday). The previous observations signify that week’s average. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, U.S. Financial Data Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8590. To be added to our free email notification list, please visit our web site at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd. updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2008 Adjusted Monetary Base To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 11/21/07 02/13/08 04/23/08 05/21/08 06/18/08 07/16/08 08/27/08 04/23/08 0.0 05/21/08 0.6 0.6 06/18/08 1.6 2.2 5.8 07/16/08 2.2 3.1 6.3 7.6 08/27/08 3.0 4.0 6.7 7.5 09/24/08 7.8 10.7 16.2 19.1 22.5 29.3 10/22/08 31.2 43.4 65.1 79.6 101.2 140.8 341.0 11/19/08 61.9 86.7 130.4 160.5 205.7 285.9 631.2 09/24/08 7.4 1414.1 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov 2008 Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 11/21/07 02/13/08 04/23/08 05/21/08 04/23/08 -4.4 05/21/08 0.1 0.3 06/18/08 0.7 1.3 16.2 07/16/08 0.2 0.5 9.4 0.8 08/27/08 1.0 1.5 8.1 2.8 06/18/08 07/16/08 08/27/08 09/24/08 2.0 09/24/08 48.3 72.1 130.1 161.8 240.0 461.5 10/22/08 256.4 444.9 985.4 1499.3 2830.5 7659.4 194880.2 11/19/08 516.4 964.4 2318.0 3696.7 7192.3 18944.2 255860.4 1558606.5 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data MZM Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 9000 8800 8600 8400 8200 8000 7800 7600 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2008 MZM To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 11/19/07 02/11/08 04/21/08 05/19/08 06/16/08 07/14/08 08/25/08 04/21/08 19.8 05/19/08 16.7 06/16/08 16.5 16.8 7.9 07/14/08 13.9 12.7 3.9 5.4 08/25/08 12.2 10.6 3.6 4.3 09/22/08 10.8 8.9 2.5 2.9 -0.4 1.0 10/20/08 9.6 7.5 1.7 1.8 -0.9 -0.1 -2.4 11/17/08 9.7 7.9 2.9 3.2 1.1 2.2 1.9 09/22/08 17.1 0.2 3.8 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data M2 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 8000 7900 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun Jul Sep Aug Oct Nov 2008 M2 To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 11/19/07 02/11/08 04/21/08 05/19/08 06/16/08 07/14/08 08/25/08 04/21/08 9.0 05/19/08 7.3 6.6 06/16/08 7.0 6.1 1.6 07/14/08 6.0 4.8 0.8 1.8 08/25/08 5.6 4.5 1.7 2.5 1.7 09/22/08 5.8 4.9 2.8 3.7 3.4 5.2 10/20/08 7.6 7.3 6.4 7.8 8.6 11.4 17.8 11/17/08 7.3 7.0 6.1 7.3 7.8 9.8 13.2 09/22/08 15.9 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 9 8 Prime Rate 7 Corporate Aaa 6 5 Commercial Paper 4 2-Year Swap 3 2 1 0 Sep Nov Oct Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May 2007 Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Aug Sep Oct Nov Percent 6 5 Intended Federal Funds Rate || 10-Year Treasury 4 3 Federal Funds Rate | | 3-Month Treasury 2 1 0 Sep Nov Oct 2007 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Averages of Daily Figures Percent 6 5 4 3 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2007 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Averages of Daily Figures Percent 4 3 2 1 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 2007 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spread Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3 2 1 0 Sep Oct Nov 2007 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts Daily Data Percent 3.0 Jan 2009 Dec 2008 2.5 | | Nov 2008 2.0 Intended Target Rate 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Oct 2008 Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates Percent 2.0 1.7 Week Ending: 10/02/08 10/30/08 11/26/08 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2 Nov 2008 Dec 2008 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr 2009 Contract Month Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Averages of Daily Figures Closing Price February 5, 1971 = 100 15000 3000 14000 2800 Dow Jones (left scale) 13000 2600 12000 2400 11000 2200 NASDAQ (right scale) 10000 2000 9000 1800 8000 1600 7000 1400 Sep Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Wilshire 5000 and Standard & Poor's 500 Averages of Daily Figures January 2, 1980 = 1078.29 1941-43 = 10 16000 1600 15000 1500 Wilshire** (left scale) 14000 1400 13000 1300 S&P* (right scale) 12000 1200 11000 1100 10000 1000 9000 900 8000 800 Sep Nov Oct 2007 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov *Copyright 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Standard & Poor's including its subsidiary corporations ("S&P") is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited without S&P's prior written permission. **Source: Wilshire Associates Incorporated, www.wilshire.com Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Crude Oil Spot Prices West Texas Intermediate, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per barrel 150 130 110 90 70 50 Sep Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Crude Oil Futures Prices West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel 67 65 63 61 59 11/26/2008 57 55 11/19/2008 53 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Natural Gas Spot Prices Henry Hub, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per million btu 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 Sep Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Natural Gas Futures Prices Henry Hub Dollars per million btu 8.2 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 11/26/2008 6.8 11/19/2008 6.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures March 1973=100 January 1987=100 95 115 90 110 85 105 Broad Index (right scale) 80 100 75 95 Major Index (left scale) 70 90 65 85 Sep Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Exchange Rates Averages of Daily Figures Euro/US$ Yen/US$ 0.95 120 0.90 116 0.85 112 Japan (right scale) 0.80 108 0.75 104 0.70 100 0.65 96 Euro (left scale) 0.60 92 Sep Nov Oct 2007 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 810 800 790 780 770 760 750 Sep Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1380 5300 1340 5100 1300 4900 1260 4700 Small Time (left scale) 1220 4500 1180 4300 1140 4100 1100 3900 Savings (right scale) 1060 3700 1020 3500 Sep Nov Oct 2007 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Institutional and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 2500 2100 2300 1900 2100 1700 Institutional Money (left scale) 1900 1500 1700 1300 1500 1100 Retail Money (right scale) 1300 900 1100 700 Sep Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Nov Oct Total Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sep Nov Oct 2007 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Note: Total borrowings include loans to depository institutions for primary, secondary, and seasonal credit, primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit, asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, and other credit extensions, but exclude term auction credit. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Reserve Bank Credit and Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 2400 2100 1800 1500 1200 Reserve Bank Credit 900 U.S. Treasury Securities 600 300 Sep Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2007 Term Auction Credit Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 420 360 300 240 180 120 60 0 Sep Nov Oct 2007 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 10300 8500 10050 8250 9800 8000 9550 7750 Bank Credit (left scale) 9300 7500 9050 7250 Loans and Leases (right scale) 8800 7000 8550 6750 8300 6500 Sep Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2007 Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1650 1100 1600 1050 1550 1000 1500 950 All Banks (left scale) 1450 900 1400 850 1350 800 1300 750 Large Banks (right scale) 1250 700 Sep Nov Oct 2007 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Recent developments in the financial sector resulted in an unusually large increase in commercial bank assets and liabilities in September and October 2008. For more information, please see the notes to the Oct. 10, 2008, H.8 release at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/20081010/. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 Sep Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2007 Commercial Paper: Financial and Asset-Backed Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1100 1000 Asset-Backed 900 800 Financial 700 600 500 Sep Nov Oct 2007 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 11/28/08 U.S. Financial Data Interest Rates Percent Sep Oct Nov 30-Day Comm. Paper 90-Day CDs 5 2.03 2.79 3.22 5.49 7.04 12 2.03 2.79 3.16 5.46 19 2.29 4.06 2.97 26 1.99 4.14 3.47 Federal Funds 3-Month Treasury Bill 2-Year Treasury Securities 5-Year Treasury Securities 10-Year Treasury Securities 30-Year Treasury Securities 4.62 1.96 1.67 2.24 2.93 3.69 4.31 7.05 4.54 1.99 1.60 2.23 2.92 3.66 4.24 5.63 7.28 5.03 2.25 0.62 1.85 2.69 3.54 4.16 5.91 7.66 5.23 1.54 0.84 2.11 3.02 3.84 4.40 2-Year Corporate Corporate Municipal Interest Rate Swap Aaa Bonds Baa Bonds Bonds 3 2.05 4.75 3.29 5.96 7.86 5.36 1.32 0.76 1.75 2.77 3.70 4.19 10 1.65 4.94 2.94 6.12 8.25 5.47 1.59 0.57 1.56 2.63 3.69 4.08 17 1.62 4.82 3.00 6.47 9.09 6.01 0.96 0.45 1.68 2.90 4.02 4.27 24 1.47 3.88 2.70 6.32 9.29 5.32 0.69 1.04 1.59 2.64 3.74 4.13 31 1.19 3.45 2.72 6.42 9.49 5.35 0.82 0.61 1.59 2.77 3.92 4.24 7 0.82 2.65 2.52 6.37 9.33 5.24 0.24 0.39 1.36 2.56 3.82 4.22 14 0.64 2.27 2.31 6.37 9.26 5.14 0.28 0.21 1.23 2.41 3.78 4.24 21 0.49 2.26 2.18 5.99 9.14 5.13 0.36 0.07 1.11 2.12 3.38 3.93 28 * 0.55 2.21 2.17 5.84 9.17 . 0.56 0.09 1.18 2.10 3.15 3.65 *Averages of rates available Money Stock and Components Reserves and Base Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Oct Nov Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves 96.137 M2 MZM Currency Small Time 6 7828.8 8639.6 787.0 1288.9 4036.3 1039.0 2099.7 Aug 27 876.018 13 7871.4 8690.9 791.5 1305.6 4061.1 1048.4 2125.1 Sep 10 873.829 98.259 20 7925.5 8772.1 795.9 1317.1 4077.6 1075.7 2163.7 24 949.843 166.327 Savings Retail Money Institutional Money 27 7877.5 8718.7 800.2 1327.2 3989.3 1073.3 2168.4 3 7877.8 8754.0 802.9 1336.8 3950.3 1058.7 2213.0 10 7906.9 8785.0 803.1 1344.9 3998.1 1053.3 2223.0 17 7929.4 8817.2 803.8 1349.5 4021.7 1050.7 2237.3 Bank Loans and Credit Oct Nov 8 1016.695 230.559 22 1182.418 382.156 5 1265.072 466.622 19 1505.116 701.821 Exchange Rates Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Oct Nov Bank Credit Loans and Leases C&I Loans (All) C&I Loans (Large) Comm. Paper (sa) Total Borrowings 15 9910.2 7257.0 1606.3 827.5 198.0 437.530 22 10074.8 7272.4 1611.7 827.0 194.7 418.580 29 10011.7 7244.3 1605.7 822.9 199.5 388.809 5 9870.2 7174.4 1598.7 815.3 195.2 359.009 12 9912.8 7181.5 1607.9 822.7 Major Exchange Broad Exchange Exchange Rate: Euro/$ Rate Index Rate Index Oct Nov Exchange Rate: Yen/$ 17 79.7 106.3 0.739 101.4 24 82.3 109.2 0.772 98.5 31 83.2 109.6 0.790 96.4 7 81.4 107.7 0.777 98.9 204.6 322.932 14 83.1 109.6 0.791 96.5 19 . . . . 205.0 296.818 21 83.9 111.1 0.793 96.3 26 . . . . 209.4 283.180 28 * 82.5 110.1 0.774 95.9 *Averages of rates available Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 U.S. Financial Data Definitions M1: The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float. M2: M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts. M3: M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits; repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all banking offices in Canada and the United Kingdom; and institutional money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000 or more). Notes Cover Page: Economic forecasts are median responses from the Thomson Reuters Weekly Economic Survey, which is sent out to 20 to 25 Wall Street economists each week (usually on Tuesday). These forecasts are released on Friday—at which time, Thursday’s USFD cover page will be updated. Page 3: Adjusted Monetary Base equals the sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 1996b, 2001, 2003). Page 4: Adjusted Reserves is defined as the sum of vault cash and Federal Reserve Bank deposits held by depository institutions and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series, a spliced chain index, is numerically larger than the Board of Governors’ measure, which excludes vault cash not used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements and Federal Reserve Bank deposits used to satisfy required clearing balance contracts; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 2001, 2003). Page 5: MZM includes the zero maturity, or immediately available, components of M3. MZM equals M2 minus small-denomination time deposits, plus institutional money market mutual funds (that is, the money market mutual funds included in M3 but excluded from M2). The label MZM, or “Money, Zero Maturity,” was coined by William Poole (1991) for this aggregate, proposed earlier by Motley (1988). Readers are cautioned that since early 1994 the level and growth of M1 have been depressed by retail sweep programs that reclassify transactions deposits (demand deposits and other checkable deposits) as savings deposits overnight, thereby reducing banks’ required reserves; see Anderson and Rasche (2001) and research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/swdata.html. Page 7: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the Intended Federal Funds Rate. Federal Funds Rate represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the release. Page 8: 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield is the most recently issued inflation-indexed bond of 10-year original maturity. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spread equals the difference between the yield on the most recently issued 10-year inflationindexed bond and the unadjusted 10-Year Treasury Note Yield of similar maturity. Page 9: Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts trace through time the yield on three specific contracts. Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates displays a single day’s snapshot of yields for contracts expiring in the months shown on the horizontal axis. Page 11: Crude Oil (West Texas intermediate) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 12: Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 13: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 release. The Major Index comprises 7 currencies. The Broad Index comprises the Major Index plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Page 14: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Savings Deposits is the sum of money market deposit accounts and passbook and statement savings. Small Time Deposits have a minimum initial maturity of 7 days. Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. Page 15: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 and H.4.1 releases. Retail Money Funds are included in M2. Institutional Money Funds are not part of M2; they used to be included in M3, which was discontinued as of March 23, 2006. See www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm. Total Borrowings include loans to depository institutions for (ii) primary, secondary, and seasonal credit and (ii) primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also includes the asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Data and recent information regarding Federal Reserve lending programs appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 release at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Page 16: Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities include nominal and inflation-indexed securities and the compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of inflation-indexed securities (inflation compensation). Term Auction Credit are collateralized, term funds (28-day) that are auctioned to depository institutions under the temporary Term Auction Facility. Term Auction Credit became a Federal Reserve balance sheet item as of December 27, 2007. For more information on the Term Auction Facility, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/taf.htm. Page 17: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. Bank Loans and Credit include foreign-related institutions. Bank Credit includes loans and leases and securities. All Banks includes foreign-related institutions. Large Banks are domestically chartered banks (adjusted for mergers) and report on a weekly basis. Page 18: Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/outstandings.htm. Page 19: Treasury Security yields are Treasury constant maturities as reported in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s H.15 release. The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the secondary market yield from the H.15 release. Federal Funds represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the table. Municipal Bonds represents Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. 20 U.S. Financial Data Sources References Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Monetary aggregates and components: H.6 release. Bank credit: H.8 release. Total Borrowings and Selected Reserve Balance Sheet Items: H.4.1 release. Interest rates: H.15 release. Exchange rates: H.10 release. Commercial paper: Board of Governors web site. Anderson, Richard G. and Robert H. Rasche (1996a). “A Revised Measure of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 78(2), pp. 3-13. Chicago Board of Trade Federal funds futures contract. Dow Jones Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted monetary base, adjusted reserves, and MZM. ____ and ____(1996b). “Measuring the Adjusted Monetary Base in an Era of Financial Change,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/ December, 78(6), pp. 3-37. ____ and ____(2001). “Retail Sweep Programs and Bank Reserves, 1994-1999,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February, pp. 51-72. NASDAQ Stock Market, Incorporated NASDAQ Composite®. ____ and ____ , with Jeffrey Loesel (2003). “A Reconstruction of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and Reserves,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October, 85(5), pp. 39-70. Standard & Poor’s Standard & Poor’s 500 composite index. Motley, Brian (1988). “Should M2 Be Redefined?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Winter, pp. 33-51. U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. inflation-indexed security yields. Poole, William (1991). Statement before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, November 6, 1991. Government Printing Office, Serial No. 102-82. Wall Street Journal Oil (West Texas intermediate) and natural gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices. Note: Articles from this Bank’s Review are available on the Internet at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/. Wilshire Associates Incorporated (www.wilshire.com) Wilshire 5000 ®. 21 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis