Full text of U.S. Financial Data : May 8, 2003
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May 8, 2003 USFinancialData THE WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS: ■ At their meeting on May 6, members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the Committee’s target for the federal funds rate at 1.25 percent. In announcing this decision, the FOMC concluded: Recent readings on production and employment, though mostly reflecting decisions made before the conclusion of hostilities, have proven disappointing. However, the ebbing of geopolitical tensions has rolled back oil prices, bolstered consumer confidence, and strengthened debt and equity markets. These developments, along with the accommodative stance of monetary policy and ongoing growth in productivity, should foster an improving economic climate over time. Although the timing and extent of that improvement remain uncertain, the Committee perceives that over the next few quarters the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth are roughly equal. In contrast, over the same period, the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level. The Committee believes that, taken together, the balance of risks to achieving its goals is weighted toward weakness over the foreseeable future. ■ The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its business activity index for the nonmanufacturing sector rose 2.8 percentage points in April to 50.7 percent. An index value greater than 50 percent indicates positive economic growth. ■ In April, nonfarm payroll employment fell 48,000 and the unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 6 percent. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated. U.S. Financial Data will continue to be mailed to all subscribers through June 27, 2003. After that date, this publication will be available weekly only on the Internet at <research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd>. To be added to our free electronic mailing list, please visit our web site at <research.stlouisfed.org/maillist>. To obtain more information on the data, access the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database at <research.stlouisfed.org/fred> or send an e-mail to stlsFRED@stls.frb.org. Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 730 Billions of Dollars 2003 Feb 19 Mar 5 19 Apr 2 16 30 720 Billions of Dollars Billions 711.941 713.812 712.724 711.932 706.996 718.788 730 720 710 710 700 700 690 690 680 680 670 670 660 660 650 650 6 20 Mar 3 17 1 Apr 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 May Jun Jul 21 Aug 4 18 2 Sep 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 Oct Nov Dec 22 Jan 5 19 5 Feb 2002 19 2 Mar 16 30 14 28 Apr May 2003 The adjusted monetary base is the sum of Federal Reserve deposits and vault cash held by domestic depository institutions, currency held by the public, and an adjustment for the effect of changes in reserve requirement ratios. The monetary base series includes Federal Reserve deposits used to satisfy clearing balance contracts. Data are computed by this Bank. A detailed description of the adjusted monetary base is available from this Bank. Recent data are preliminary. Adjusted Monetary Base Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 5/1/02 10/2/02 7.7 10/30/02 6.9 4.2 11/27/02 6.4 4.0 3.0 12/25/02 6.3 4.2 3.8 4.3 2/5/03 8.5 7.8 9.5 11.5 15.0 3/5/03 8.0 7.2 8.4 9.6 11.5 14.1 4/2/03 7.3 6.3 6.9 7.6 8.6 9.6 1.1 4/30/03 6.8 5.8 6.1 6.6 7.2 7.6 1.1 7/24/02 10/2/02 10/30/02 11/27/02 12/25/02 2/5/03 3/5/03 0.0 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 2003 Mar 24 31 Apr 7 14 21 28 6200 Billions of Dollars Billions 6194.0 6188.6 6175.1 6173.2 6183.8 6233.0 6400 6200 6000 6000 5800 5800 5600 5600 4 18 1 Mar 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May Jun 8 22 Jul 5 19 Aug 2002 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 3 Feb 17 31 14 28 12 26 Mar 2003 Apr May MZM is M2 minus total small−denomination time deposits, plus institutional money funds, which are included in the non−M2 component of M3. Each component is seasonally adjusted. Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 4/29/02 9/30/02 10.2 10/28/02 8.6 5.1 11/25/02 10.4 9.1 11.0 12/30/02 10.5 9.5 11.0 16.2 1/27/03 9.3 7.8 8.0 10.6 5.5 3/3/03 9.1 7.9 8.1 9.9 6.4 4.0 3/31/03 8.4 7.1 7.0 8.3 5.2 3.1 5.0 4/28/03 7.7 6.3 6.0 6.9 4.2 2.3 3.3 7/29/02 9/30/02 10/28/02 11/25/02 12/30/02 1/27/03 3/3/03 0.4 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted 100 Billions of Dollars 2003 Feb 19 Mar 5 19 Apr 2 16 30 90 Billions of Dollars 100 Billions 72.341 75.232 71.714 72.187 68.038 74.157 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 6 20 Mar 3 17 1 Apr 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 May Jun Jul 21 Aug 4 18 2 Sep 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 Oct Nov Dec 22 Jan 5 19 5 Feb 2002 19 2 Mar 16 30 14 28 Apr May 2003 Adjusted reserves is the difference between the adjusted monetary base and the currency component of M1. Adjusted Reserves Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 5/1/02 10/2/02 5.7 10/30/02 3.5 0.6 11/27/02 5.8 5.0 6.0 12/25/02 9.4 10.8 16.6 31.1 2/5/03 16.0 20.2 30.1 43.5 53.2 3/5/03 8.9 9.7 12.3 17.3 16.1 7.4 4/2/03 5.3 4.7 4.9 7.4 4.4 −4.2 −35.4 4/30/03 3.6 2.6 2.1 3.7 0.7 −6.6 −29.0 7/24/02 10/2/02 10/30/02 11/27/02 12/25/02 2/5/03 3/5/03 −21.4 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M1) and Total Checkable Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1400 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars M1 2003 Mar 24 31 Apr 7 14 21 28 1350 1300 875 TCD Billions 1235.7 1241.3 1222.6 1221.4 1240.4 1246.3 2003 Mar 24 31 Apr 7 14 21 28 Billions 587.1 593.4 574.6 573.0 589.8 595.5 825 775 1250 725 M1 (left scale) 1200 675 1150 625 TCD (right scale) 1100 575 1050 525 4 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr Mar May 8 22 5 Jul Jun 19 2 Aug 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 3 Feb 17 31 14 28 12 26 Mar 2002 Apr May 2003 M1 is the sum of currency held by the nonbank public, total checkable deposits, and travelers checks. Total checkable deposits is the sum Fix of demand deposits and other checkable deposits at depository institutions. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 700 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Compounded annual rates of change, average of the four weeks ending April 28, 2003, from the four weeks ending: 680 Apr 29, 2002 Jul 29, 2002 Oct 28, 2002 Nov 25, 2002 Dec 30, 2002 Jan 27, 2003 Mar 3, 2003 660 640 2003 Mar 24 31 Apr 7 14 21 28 7.0 6.3 7.1 7.6 7.7 8.0 6.6 Billions 641.0 640.4 640.5 640.9 643.1 643.3 700 680 660 640 620 620 600 600 580 580 4 18 Mar 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May Jun 8 22 Jul 5 19 Aug 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep 2002 Oct Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 Feb 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 Mar Apr May 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures 8.00 Percent Percent 8.00 7.00 7.00 6.00 6.00 Corporate Aaa Bonds 5.00 5.00 Prime Rate 4.00 4.00 2−Year Interest Rate Swap 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 Commercial Paper 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 14 28 11 25 9 23 Mar 2003 Feb 14 21 28 Mar 7 14 21 28 Apr 4 11 18 25 May 2 9 Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2002 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2003 Apr May 30−Day Commercial Paper 90−Day CDs 2−Year Interest Rate Swap Corporate Aaa Bonds Corporate Baa Bonds Municipal Bonds * 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.23 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.21 1.22 1.21 1.23 1.22 1.20 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.18 1.22 1.25 1.22 1.23 1.26 1.26 1.24 1.23 1.90 1.87 1.84 1.72 1.70 1.97 1.92 1.80 1.88 1.94 1.89 1.78 1.73 5.97 5.96 5.89 5.82 5.82 5.99 5.94 5.81 5.81 5.80 5.68 5.56 5.50 7.09 7.06 6.97 6.90 6.90 7.04 6.97 6.91 6.93 6.89 6.79 6.68 6.61 4.83 4.79 4.74 4.69 4.67 4.83 4.84 4.79 4.76 4.74 4.66 4.58 N.A. Current data, from the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, are averages of rates available for the week ending May 9, 2003 . * Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Selected Interest Rates Averages of Daily Figures 6.00 Percent Percent 6.00 5.00 5.00 10−Year Treasury Securities 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 Federal Funds Rate 2.00 2.00 Intended Federal Funds Rate 3−Month Treasury Bill 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 14 28 11 25 9 23 Mar 2003 Feb 14 21 28 Mar 7 14 21 28 Apr 4 11 18 25 May 2 9 ** Apr May Federal Funds * 1.22 1.30 1.24 1.29 1.21 1.27 1.22 1.28 1.23 1.27 1.26 1.28 1.26 Jun Jul Aug 2002 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2003 Apr May 3−Month Treasury Bill 2−Year Treasury Securities 5−Year Treasury Securities 10−Year Treasury Securities Treasury Long−Term Average 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.15 1.09 1.14 1.15 1.10 1.13 1.16 1.14 1.11 1.09 1.63 1.62 1.57 1.47 1.47 1.72 1.65 1.54 1.61 1.70 1.66 1.56 1.48 2.94 2.87 2.76 2.61 2.62 2.97 2.93 2.84 2.92 2.98 2.97 2.88 2.76 3.95 3.89 3.78 3.65 3.65 3.97 3.96 3.90 3.97 3.99 3.97 3.92 3.83 4.97 4.95 4.86 4.77 4.77 5.01 5.04 4.99 5.04 5.02 4.97 4.90 4.84 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the intended federal funds rate. * Seven−day averages for week ending two days earlier than date shown. **Averages of rates available. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M2) and Money Zero Maturity Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 6400 M2 2003 Mar 24 31 Apr 7 14 21 28 6200 Billions 5897.6 5893.9 5890.1 5893.8 5909.3 5953.8 6200 MZM 6000 6000 5800 5800 M2 MZM 5600 2003 Mar 24 31 Apr 7 14 21 28 Billions 6194.0 6188.6 6175.1 6173.2 6183.8 6233.0 5400 5600 5400 4 18 1 Mar 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May Jun 8 22 Jul 5 19 Aug 2002 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 3 Feb 17 31 14 28 12 26 Mar 2003 Apr May M2 is the sum of M1, savings (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits and retail money funds. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Money Stock (M2) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 4/29/02 9/30/02 9.5 10/28/02 9.3 7.5 11/25/02 9.3 7.8 8.7 12/30/02 8.4 6.8 6.6 5.8 1/27/03 8.2 6.7 6.5 5.9 4.5 3/3/03 8.6 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.2 9.4 3/31/03 8.1 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.2 7.3 7.9 4/28/03 7.7 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.6 6.2 6.3 7/29/02 9/30/02 10/28/02 11/25/02 12/30/02 1/27/03 3/3/03 2.7 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1250 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 3000 Small Time 2003 Mar 24 31 Apr 7 14 21 28 1150 1050 Billions 870.1 868.5 867.0 866.8 865.4 863.3 2900 2800 2700 950 Small Time (left scale) 2600 850 Savings 750 2003 Mar 24 31 7 Apr 14 21 28 Savings Deposits (right scale) 650 2500 Billions 2866.8 2861.1 2888.0 2897.8 2895.9 2930.3 2400 2300 550 4 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr Mar May 8 22 5 Jul Jun 19 2 Aug 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 3 Feb 17 31 14 28 12 26 Mar 2002 Apr May 2003 Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. Fix Large Time Deposits and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1200 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Large Time 2003 Mar 24 31 7 Apr 14 21 28 1100 1200 Retail Money Billions 826.8 813.5 811.2 806.6 815.1 823.2 2003 Mar 24 31 7 Apr 14 21 28 Billions 925.0 923.1 912.7 907.9 907.5 913.9 1100 1000 1000 Retail Money 900 900 800 800 Large Time 700 700 4 18 Mar 1 15 Apr 29 13 27 10 24 May Jun 8 22 5 Jul 19 Aug 2002 2 16 30 Sep 14 28 11 25 Oct Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 Feb 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 Mar Apr May 2003 Large time deposits and retail money funds are at all despository institutions. Large time deposits are those issued in denominations of $100,000 or more. Retail money funds were originally called general purpose and broker/dealer money market funds. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Total Borrowings From Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures 1.6 Billions of Dollars Billions 0.011 0.029 0.036 0.028 0.030 0.050 2003 Apr 2 9 16 23 30 May 7 1.4 1.2 Billions of Dollars 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6 20 3 17 1 Apr Mar 15 29 12 26 10 24 May Jun Jul 7 21 4 Aug 18 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Sep Nov 8 Dec 22 5 Jan 19 5 19 Feb 2002 2 16 30 14 28 Apr Mar May 2003 As of January 9, 2003, borrowings include primary, secondary, and seasonal credit. Prior to that, borrowings include seasonal, adjustment, and extended credit. Fix Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States * Seasonally Adjusted 6700 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Bank Credit 2003 Mar 19 26 Apr 2 9 16 23 6500 6300 5250 Loans & Leases Billions 5974.8 5972.8 5994.2 6010.8 5991.5 6031.9 2003 Mar 19 26 Apr 2 9 16 23 Billions 4240.0 4232.0 4241.5 4268.6 4263.5 4251.8 5050 4850 6100 4650 Bank Credit (left scale) ** 5900 4450 5700 4250 5500 4050 Loans and Leases (right scale) 5300 3850 6 20 Mar 3 17 Apr 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 May Jun Jul 7 21 Aug 4 18 2 Sep 2002 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Nov Dec 8 22 Jan 5 19 Feb 5 19 Mar 2 16 30 14 28 Apr May 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions ** Includes loans and leases and securities Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies Not Seasonally Adjusted 300 Billions of Dollars 2003 Apr 2 9 16 23 30 May 7 250 Billions of Dollars 300 Billions 151.0 150.9 156.9 153.6 152.5 148.5 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 6 20 3 17 1 Apr Mar 15 29 12 26 10 24 May Jun Jul 7 21 4 Aug 18 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Sep Nov Dec 8 22 5 Jan 19 5 Feb 19 2 Apr Mar 2002 16 30 14 28 May 2003 Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/table1.htm. Fix Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted 1150 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 625 All Banks 2003 Mar 19 26 Apr 2 9 16 23 1125 1100 1075 Large Banks Billions 945.5 944.5 943.8 944.3 946.6 942.8 2003 Mar 19 26 Apr 2 9 16 23 Billions 470.4 469.7 469.1 468.6 469.9 467.7 600 575 550 1050 525 Large Banks (right scale) ** 1025 500 1000 475 975 450 All Banks (left scale) * 950 425 925 400 6 20 Mar 3 17 Apr 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 May Jun Jul 7 21 Aug 4 18 Sep 2002 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions. ** Weekly reporting, domestically chartered banks. 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Nov Dec 8 22 Jan 5 19 Feb 5 19 Mar 2 16 30 14 28 Apr May 2003 Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Trade−Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures 125 March 1973=100 2003 Apr 2 9 16 23 30 May 7 120 115 January 1997=100 145 Major 94.3 94.9 94.2 93.7 93.1 91.3 2003 Apr 2 9 16 23 30 May 7 Broad 123.3 123.6 122.8 122.1 121.5 119.8 Broad Index (right scale) 110 140 135 130 105 125 100 120 Major Currency Index (left scale) 95 115 90 110 6 20 Mar 3 17 Apr 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 May Jun Jul 7 21 Aug 2002 4 18 Sep 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Nov Dec 8 22 Jan 5 19 Feb 5 19 Mar 2 16 30 14 28 Apr May 2003 The major currency index (MCI) comprises 7 currencies. The broad index comprises the MCI plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis