Full text of U.S. Financial Data : May 29, 2003
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May 29, 2003 USFinancialData THE WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS: ■ According to the preliminary estimate, real GDP rose at a revised 1.9 percent annual rate during the first quarter. The advance estimate pegged first-quarter output growth at 1.6 percent. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that upward revisions to real personal consumption expenditures and real exports more than offset a downward revision to real equipment and software investment and an upward revision to real imports. ■ After-tax corporate profits (with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) fell $4.8 billion, or 0.8 percent, in the first quarter. Profits have declined 4.4 percent from a year earlier. ■ In April, the Conference Board’s help-wanted advertising index fell 3 percentage points to 35 percent (1987=100), its lowest level since September 1961. ■ New orders for manufactured durable goods fell $4.23 billion, or 2.4 percent, in April. Manufacturers’ shipments of durable goods fell 0.7 percent in April, while their inventories fell 0.1 percent. The value of unfilled orders reported by manufacturers fell 0.3 percent, the first decline in three months. ■ For the week ending May 28, the Federal Reserve’s major currency exchange rate index measured 88.9 percent (1973=100). Since March 26, the trade-weighted value of the dollar has declined 6.7 percent. ■ Spot prices for domestically produced crude oil (West Texas Intermediate) averaged $29.35 per barrel for the week ending May 27, up $4.12 per barrel from four weeks earlier. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated. U.S. Financial Data will continue to be mailed to all subscribers through June 27, 2003. After that date, this publication will be available weekly only on the Internet at <research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd>. To be added to our free electronic mailing list, please visit our web site at <research.stlouisfed.org/maillist>. To obtain more information on the data, access the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database at <research.stlouisfed.org/fred> or send an e-mail to stlsFRED@stls.frb.org. Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 730 Billions of Dollars 2003 Mar 19 Apr 2 16 30 May 14 28 720 Billions of Dollars Billions 712.724 711.931 706.996 718.990 719.844 724.301 730 720 710 710 700 700 690 690 680 680 670 670 660 660 3 17 Apr 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 May Jun Jul 7 21 4 Aug 18 Sep 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Nov Dec 8 22 Jan 5 19 Feb 5 19 Mar 2002 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Apr May Jun 2003 The adjusted monetary base is the sum of Federal Reserve deposits and vault cash held by domestic depository institutions, currency held by the public, and an adjustment for the effect of changes in reserve requirement ratios. The monetary base series includes Federal Reserve deposits used to satisfy clearing balance contracts. Data are computed by this Bank. A detailed description of the adjusted monetary base is available from this Bank. Recent data are preliminary. Adjusted Monetary Base To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 5/29/02 8/21/02 10/30/02 11/27/02 12/25/02 1/22/03 3/5/03 10/30/02 4.6 11/27/02 4.4 3.8 12/25/02 4.5 4.2 4.3 1/22/03 6.4 7.1 9.7 13.2 3/5/03 6.8 7.6 9.6 11.5 14.1 4/2/03 6.1 6.5 7.6 8.6 9.6 5.1 4/30/03 5.7 5.9 6.6 7.2 7.7 4.0 0.1 5/28/03 6.6 7.0 8.0 8.8 9.5 6.9 5.7 4/2/03 9.2 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 2003 Apr 14 21 28 May 5 12 19 6200 Billions of Dollars Billions 6172.2 6182.5 6232.5 6254.8 6267.1 6277.0 6400 6200 6000 6000 5800 5800 5600 5600 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May Jun 8 22 Jul 5 19 2 Aug 2002 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct 9 Nov 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 Feb 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 Mar Apr 2003 May 9 23 Jun MZM is M2 minus total small−denomination time deposits, plus institutional money funds, which are included in the non−M2 component of M3. Each component is seasonally adjusted. Money Zero Maturity (MZM) To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 5/20/02 8/19/02 10/21/02 11/18/02 12/16/02 1/20/03 2/17/03 10/21/02 7.9 11/18/02 8.9 6.9 12/16/02 10.6 10.3 18.4 1/20/03 8.7 7.4 10.2 8.1 2/17/03 8.9 7.9 10.3 8.9 3.5 3/17/03 8.3 7.2 8.7 7.3 3.2 6.5 4/21/03 7.2 5.8 6.6 5.1 1.7 3.1 −0.1 5/19/03 7.9 7.0 8.0 7.0 4.4 6.4 5.1 3/17/03 6.3 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted 100 Billions of Dollars 2003 Mar 5 19 Apr 2 16 30 May 14 90 Billions of Dollars Billions 75.232 71.714 72.187 68.038 74.360 73.039 100 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 3 17 Apr 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 May Jun Jul 7 21 4 Aug 18 Sep 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Nov Dec 8 22 Jan 5 19 Feb 5 19 Mar 2002 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Apr May Jun 2003 Adjusted reserves is the difference between the adjusted monetary base and the currency component of M1. Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 5/15/02 8/7/02 10/16/02 10/16/02 0.6 5.2 13.2 1/8/03 2/19/03 3/19/03 6.3 12/11/02 12/11/02 −0.7 11/13/02 11/13/02 23.6 1/8/03 5.0 11.3 16.3 20.4 2/19/03 8.0 14.3 19.6 23.0 16.5 3/19/03 5.4 9.9 11.9 12.7 5.8 6.9 4/16/03 −0.2 1.6 0.2 −1.3 −8.7 −11.9 −32.8 5/14/03 4.9 8.3 9.2 9.3 4.4 4.7 −4.7 2.0 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M1) and Total Checkable Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1450 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars M1 2003 Apr 14 21 28 May 5 12 19 1400 1350 875 TCD Billions 1220.8 1239.7 1246.5 1252.7 1248.0 1261.0 2003 Apr 14 21 28 May 5 12 19 Billions 572.5 589.1 595.8 601.9 596.7 608.6 825 775 1300 725 1250 675 M1 (left scale) 1200 625 1150 575 TCD (right scale) 1100 525 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May 8 22 5 Jul Jun 19 2 Aug 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 3 Feb 17 31 14 28 12 26 Apr Mar 2002 9 May 23 Jun 2003 M1 is the sum of currency held by the nonbank public, total checkable deposits, and travelers checks. Total checkable deposits is the sum Fix of demand deposits and other checkable deposits at depository institutions. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 710 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Compounded annual rates of change, average of the four weeks ending May 19, 2003, from the four weeks ending: 690 May 20, 2002 Aug 19, 2002 Nov 18, 2002 Dec 16, 2002 Jan 20, 2003 Feb 17, 2003 Mar 17, 2003 670 650 2003 Apr 14 21 28 May 5 12 19 6.7 6.3 7.2 7.2 7.6 6.7 6.0 Billions 640.9 643.1 643.3 643.4 644.0 645.1 710 690 670 650 630 630 610 610 590 590 1 15 29 13 Apr May 27 10 24 Jun 8 22 Jul 5 19 Aug 2 16 30 14 28 Sep Oct 2002 11 25 Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 Feb 3 17 31 Mar 14 28 12 26 Apr 9 May 23 Jun 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures 8.00 Percent Percent 8.00 7.00 7.00 6.00 6.00 Corporate Aaa Bonds 5.00 5.00 Prime Rate 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 2−Year Interest Rate Swap 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 Commercial Paper 0.00 0.00 5 19 3 Apr 2003 Mar 7 14 21 28 Apr 4 11 18 25 May 2 9 16 23 30 17 31 14 28 12 26 May Jun Jul 9 23 6 Aug 2002 20 Sep 4 18 Oct 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Nov Dec 7 Jan 21 Feb 7 21 4 18 Mar Apr 2003 2 16 30 13 27 May Jun 30−Day Commercial Paper 90−Day CDs 2−Year Interest Rate Swap Corporate Aaa Bonds Corporate Baa Bonds Municipal Bonds * 1.23 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.21 1.22 1.21 1.23 1.22 1.20 1.22 1.21 1.23 1.26 1.18 1.22 1.25 1.22 1.23 1.26 1.26 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.21 1.22 1.72 1.70 1.97 1.92 1.80 1.88 1.94 1.89 1.78 1.69 1.62 1.51 1.54 5.82 5.82 5.99 5.94 5.81 5.81 5.80 5.68 5.56 5.42 5.23 5.01 5.04 6.90 6.90 7.04 6.97 6.91 6.93 6.89 6.79 6.68 6.52 6.39 6.23 6.24 4.69 4.67 4.83 4.84 4.79 4.76 4.74 4.66 4.58 4.50 4.35 4.30 N.A. Current data, from the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, are averages of rates available for the week ending May 30, 2003 . * Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Selected Interest Rates Averages of Daily Figures 6.00 Percent Percent 5.00 6.00 5.00 10−Year Treasury Securities 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 Federal Funds Rate 2.00 2.00 Intended Federal Funds Rate 3−Month Treasury Bill 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 5 19 Apr 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 May 2003 Mar 7 14 21 28 Apr 4 11 18 25 May 2 9 16 23 30 ** Jun Federal Funds * 1.29 1.21 1.27 1.22 1.28 1.23 1.27 1.26 1.28 1.26 1.25 1.27 1.24 Jul 9 23 6 Aug 2002 20 Sep 4 18 Oct 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Nov Dec Jan 7 21 Feb 7 21 4 18 Mar Apr 2003 2 16 30 13 27 May Jun 3−Month Treasury Bill 2−Year Treasury Securities 5−Year Treasury Securities 10−Year Treasury Securities Treasury Long−Term Average 1.15 1.09 1.14 1.15 1.10 1.13 1.16 1.14 1.11 1.09 1.05 1.04 1.09 1.47 1.47 1.72 1.65 1.54 1.61 1.70 1.66 1.56 1.48 1.44 1.36 1.34 2.61 2.62 2.97 2.93 2.84 2.92 2.98 2.97 2.88 2.70 2.52 2.35 2.35 3.65 3.65 3.97 3.96 3.90 3.97 3.99 3.97 3.92 3.77 3.56 3.38 3.43 4.77 4.77 5.01 5.04 4.99 5.04 5.02 4.97 4.90 4.81 4.62 4.42 4.48 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the intended federal funds rate. * Seven−day averages for week ending two days earlier than date shown. **Averages of rates available. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M2) and Money Zero Maturity Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 6400 M2 2003 Apr 14 21 28 May 5 12 19 6200 Billions 5892.9 5908.2 5953.6 5992.6 6002.2 6012.5 6200 MZM 6000 6000 5800 5800 M2 MZM 5600 2003 Apr 14 21 28 May 5 12 19 5600 Billions 6172.2 6182.5 6232.5 6254.8 6267.1 6277.0 5400 5400 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May Jun 8 22 Jul 5 19 2 Aug 2002 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct 9 Nov 23 6 Dec 20 Jan 3 17 Feb 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 Mar Apr 2003 May 9 23 Jun M2 is the sum of M1, savings (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits and retail money funds. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Money Stock (M2) To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 5/20/02 8/19/02 10/21/02 11/18/02 12/16/02 1/20/03 2/17/03 10/21/02 8.4 11/18/02 8.6 7.6 12/16/02 8.0 6.7 6.9 1/20/03 7.4 6.0 5.7 3.9 2/17/03 8.1 7.3 7.7 7.1 8.4 3/17/03 7.9 7.1 7.3 6.8 7.6 10.1 4/21/03 7.0 6.1 5.9 5.2 5.4 6.1 2.5 5/19/03 8.2 7.7 8.0 7.7 8.4 9.8 8.4 3/17/03 9.5 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1250 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 3100 Small Time 2003 Apr 14 21 28 May 5 12 19 1150 1050 Billions 866.9 865.6 863.6 861.7 859.4 857.5 3000 2900 2800 950 Small Time (left scale) 2700 850 Savings 750 2003 Apr 14 21 28 May 5 12 19 Savings Deposits (right scale) 650 2600 Billions 2897.3 2895.4 2929.7 2963.2 2975.6 2977.6 2500 2400 550 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May 8 22 5 Jul Jun 19 2 Aug 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct 9 Nov 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 3 Feb 17 31 14 28 12 26 Apr Mar 2002 May 9 23 Jun 2003 Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. Fix Large Time Deposits and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1200 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Large Time 2003 Apr 14 21 28 5 May 12 19 1100 1200 Retail Money Billions 806.5 814.9 823.0 830.5 826.3 825.1 2003 Apr 14 21 28 5 May 12 19 Billions 907.9 907.5 913.9 915.0 919.1 916.3 1100 1000 1000 Retail Money 900 900 800 800 Large Time 700 700 1 15 29 13 Apr May 27 10 24 Jun 8 22 Jul 5 19 Aug 2002 2 16 30 14 28 Sep Oct 11 25 Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 Feb 3 17 31 Mar 14 28 12 26 Apr May 9 23 Jun 2003 Large time deposits and retail money funds are at all despository institutions. Large time deposits are those issued in denominations of $100,000 or more. Retail money funds were originally called general purpose and broker/dealer money market funds. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Total Borrowings From Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures 1.6 Billions of Dollars Billions 0.028 0.030 0.050 0.051 0.056 0.059 2003 Apr 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 1.4 1.2 Billions of Dollars 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 3 17 1 Apr 15 29 12 26 10 24 May Jun Jul 7 21 4 Aug 18 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Sep Nov Dec 8 22 5 Jan 19 5 Feb 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Apr Mar 2002 May Jun 2003 As of January 9, 2003, borrowings include primary, secondary, and seasonal credit. Prior to that, borrowings include seasonal, adjustment, and extended credit. Fix Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States * Seasonally Adjusted 6700 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Bank Credit 2003 Apr 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 6500 6300 5250 Loans & Leases Billions 6010.4 5991.1 6034.7 6076.7 6079.8 6110.6 2003 Apr 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 Billions 4268.4 4263.3 4253.7 4261.3 4281.0 4297.4 5050 4850 6100 4650 Bank Credit (left scale) ** 5900 4450 5700 4250 Loans and Leases (right scale) 5500 4050 5300 3850 3 17 Apr 1 15 May 29 12 26 10 24 Jun Jul 7 21 Aug 4 18 Sep 2 16 30 Oct 2002 13 27 11 25 Nov Dec 8 22 Jan 5 19 Feb 5 19 Mar 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Apr May Jun 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions ** Includes loans and leases and securities Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies Not Seasonally Adjusted 300 Billions of Dollars 2003 Apr 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 250 Billions of Dollars Billions 153.6 152.5 148.5 145.9 145.9 141.0 300 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 3 17 1 Apr 15 29 12 26 10 24 May 7 Jul Jun 21 4 Aug 18 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Sep Nov 8 Dec 22 5 Jan 19 5 Feb 19 2 Apr Mar 2002 16 30 14 28 11 25 May Jun 2003 Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/table1.htm. Fix Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted 1100 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars All Banks 2003 Apr 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 1075 1050 600 Large Banks Billions 944.2 946.5 943.2 940.8 935.3 935.5 2003 Apr 9 16 23 30 May 7 14 Billions 468.6 469.9 467.7 465.8 461.4 461.3 575 550 525 1025 500 Large Banks (right scale) ** 1000 475 975 450 All Banks (left scale) * 950 425 925 400 3 17 Apr 1 15 29 12 May Jun 26 10 24 Jul 7 21 Aug 4 18 Sep 2 16 30 13 Oct 2002 Nov 27 11 25 Dec 8 22 Jan 5 19 Feb 5 19 Mar 2 16 Apr 30 14 28 11 May 25 Jun 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions. ** Weekly reporting, domestically chartered banks. Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Trade−Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures 125 March 1973=100 2003 Apr 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 120 115 January 1997=100 Major 93.7 93.1 91.3 89.9 88.8 88.9 2003 Apr 23 30 May 7 14 21 28 Broad 122.1 121.5 119.8 118.5 118.0 118.0 110 150 145 140 135 Broad Index (right scale) 105 130 100 125 95 120 Major Currency Index (left scale) 90 115 85 110 3 17 Apr 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 May Jun Jul 7 21 Aug 2002 4 18 Sep 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Oct Nov Dec 8 22 Jan 5 19 Feb 5 19 Mar 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Apr May Jun 2003 The major currency index (MCI) comprises 7 currencies. The broad index comprises the MCI plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis