Full text of U.S. Financial Data : March 20, 2003
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March 20, 2003 USFinancialData THE WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS: ■ At the conclusion of its meeting held on March 18, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep its federal funds rate target unchanged at 1.25 percent. There were no dissents. In announcing this action, the FOMC said the following: While incoming economic data since the January meeting have been mixed, recent labor market indicators have proven disappointing. However, the hesitancy of the economic expansion appears to owe importantly to oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical uncertainties. The Committee believes that as those uncertainties lift, as most analysts expect, the accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with ongoing growth in productivity, will provide support to economic activity sufficient to engender an improving economic climate over time. In light of the unusually large uncertainties clouding the geopolitical situation in the short run and their apparent effects on economic decisionmaking, the Committee does not believe it can usefully characterize the current balance of risks with respect to the prospects for its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. Rather, the Committee decided to refrain from making that determination until some of those uncertainties abate. In the current circumstances, heightened surveillance is particularly informative. ■ In February, privately owned housing starts totaled 1,622,000 units at an annual rate. February’s rate was 11 percent below January’s, and it was the largest monthly decline since January 1994. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated. U.S. Financial Data will continue to be mailed to all subscribers through June 27, 2003. After that date, this publication will be available weekly only on the Internet at <research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd>. To be added to our free electronic mailing list, please visit our web site at <research.stlouisfed.org/maillist>. To obtain more information on the data, access the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database at <research.stlouisfed.org/fred> or send an e-mail to stlsFRED@stls.frb.org. Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 730 Billions of Dollars 2003 Jan 8 22 Feb 5 19 Mar 5 19 720 710 Billions of Dollars Billions 700.012 711.060 711.251 711.986 713.830 713.322 730 720 710 700 700 690 690 680 680 670 670 660 660 650 650 640 640 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 19 Jun 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 Jan 2002 Feb Mar 2003 The adjusted monetary base is the sum of Federal Reserve deposits and vault cash held by domestic depository institutions, currency held by the public, and an adjustment for the effect of changes in reserve requirement ratios. The monetary base series includes Federal Reserve deposits used to satisfy clearing balance contracts. Data are computed by this Bank. A detailed description of the adjusted monetary base is available from this Bank. Recent data are preliminary. Adjusted Monetary Base Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 3/20/02 8/21/02 6.8 9/18/02 6.3 5.3 10/16/02 6.0 5.0 3.8 11/13/02 5.9 5.0 4.2 4.5 12/25/02 5.6 4.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 1/22/03 6.9 6.8 7.1 7.9 9.1 10.7 2/19/03 7.3 7.3 7.8 8.6 9.7 11.0 16.6 3/19/03 7.0 6.9 7.3 7.8 8.5 9.3 12.1 6/12/02 8/21/02 9/18/02 10/16/02 11/13/02 12/25/02 1/22/03 7.6 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 2003 Feb 3 10 17 24 Mar 3 10 6200 Billions of Dollars Billions 6173.1 6166.6 6201.9 6183.6 6190.0 6173.2 6400 6200 6000 6000 5800 5800 5600 5600 7 21 4 Jan 18 Feb 4 18 Mar 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May 8 22 5 Jun Jul 2002 19 Aug 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 Feb 2003 3 17 31 Mar MZM is M2 minus total small−denomination time deposits, plus institutional money funds, which are included in the non−M2 component of M3. Each component is seasonally adjusted. Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 3/11/02 8/12/02 8.2 9/9/02 8.0 9.5 10/7/02 7.6 8.3 6/10/02 8/12/02 9/9/02 10/7/02 11/11/02 12/9/02 1/13/03 5.8 11/11/02 7.1 7.5 5.3 4.6 12/9/02 9.3 10.6 10.6 11.7 15.0 1/13/03 8.1 8.8 8.0 8.2 9.3 12.0 2/10/03 7.9 8.4 7.6 7.8 8.5 10.0 2.3 3/10/03 7.7 8.1 7.4 7.4 7.9 8.9 3.3 5.6 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted 100 Billions of Dollars 02/03 Dec 25 Jan 8 22 Feb 5 19 Mar 5 90 Billions of Dollars Billions 72.821 72.264 77.167 76.674 72.336 75.250 100 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 19 Jun 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 1 Dec 15 29 12 26 12 26 Jan 2002 Feb Mar 2003 Adjusted reserves is the difference between the adjusted monetary base and the currency component of M1. Adjusted Reserves Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 3/6/02 8/7/02 −5.0 9/4/02 −3.4 −6.4 10/2/02 −1.5 −2.6 10/30/02 −2.2 −3.6 3.0 1.6 12/11/02 2.8 3.9 13.2 15.3 16.7 1/8/03 2.8 3.8 11.3 12.5 12.7 22.1 2/5/03 9.3 12.5 23.1 26.5 30.0 43.3 48.7 3/5/03 4.1 5.4 11.4 12.3 12.3 17.4 8.8 5/29/02 8/7/02 9/4/02 10/2/02 10/30/02 12/11/02 1/8/03 8.9 11.8 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M1) and Total Checkable Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1400 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars M1 2003 Feb 3 10 17 24 Mar 3 10 1350 1300 875 TCD Billions 1239.5 1217.6 1234.1 1232.7 1248.3 1229.2 2003 Feb 3 10 17 24 Mar 3 10 Billions 598.9 575.8 591.0 588.7 603.8 584.0 825 775 1250 725 M1 (left scale) 1200 675 1150 625 TCD (right scale) 1100 575 1050 525 7 21 4 Jan 18 4 Feb 18 1 Mar 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May 8 Jun 22 5 Jul 19 2 Aug 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 3 Feb 2002 17 31 Mar 2003 M1 is the sum of currency held by the nonbank public, total checkable deposits, and travelers checks. Total checkable deposits is the sum Fix of demand deposits and other checkable deposits at depository institutions. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 700 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Compounded annual rates of change, average of the four weeks ending March 10, 2003, from the four weeks ending: 680 Mar 11, 2002 Jun 10, 2002 Sep 9, 2002 Oct 7, 2002 Nov 11, 2002 Dec 9, 2002 Jan 13, 2003 660 640 2003 Feb 3 10 17 24 Mar 3 10 7.3 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.6 8.0 9.6 Billions 632.9 634.2 635.5 636.4 636.8 637.6 700 680 660 640 620 620 600 600 580 580 7 21 Jan 4 18 Feb 4 18 Mar 1 15 Apr 29 13 May 27 10 24 8 Jun 22 Jul 2002 5 19 Aug 2 16 Sep 30 14 Oct 28 11 25 Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 Feb 3 17 31 Mar 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures 8.00 Percent Percent 7.00 8.00 7.00 Corporate Aaa Bonds 6.00 6.00 5.00 5.00 Prime Rate 4.00 4.00 2−Year Interest Rate Swap 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 Commercial Paper 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 4 18 1 Jan 2002/2003 Dec 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 31 Feb 7 14 21 28 Mar 7 14 21 15 Feb 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 Mar Apr 7 May 21 5 19 Jun Jul 2002 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Aug Sep 8 Oct 22 Nov 6 20 3 Dec 17 31 14 28 14 28 Jan Feb 2003 Mar 30−Day Commercial Paper 90−Day CDs 2−Year Interest Rate Swap Corporate Aaa Bonds Corporate Baa Bonds Municipal Bonds * 1.33 1.28 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.23 1.19 1.20 1.35 1.31 1.31 1.30 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.18 1.21 2.04 2.00 2.10 2.06 1.97 2.00 1.98 1.90 1.87 1.84 1.72 1.70 1.93 6.14 6.16 6.24 6.22 6.11 6.09 5.99 5.97 5.96 5.89 5.82 5.82 5.93 7.38 7.37 7.44 7.39 7.30 7.21 7.10 7.09 7.06 6.97 6.90 6.90 7.01 4.79 4.84 4.94 4.95 4.89 4.90 4.88 4.83 4.79 4.74 4.69 4.67 N.A. Current data, from the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, are averages of rates available for the week ending March 21, 2003 . * Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Selected Interest Rates Averages of Daily Figures 6.00 Percent Percent 5.00 6.00 5.00 10−Year Treasury Securities 4.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 Federal Funds Rate 2.00 2.00 Intended Federal Funds Rate 3−Month Treasury Bill 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 4 18 1 Jan 15 Feb 2002/2003 Dec 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 31 Feb 7 14 21 28 Mar 7 14 21 ** 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 Mar Federal Funds * 1.23 1.20 1.20 1.26 1.23 1.24 1.29 1.22 1.30 1.24 1.29 1.21 1.27 Apr 7 May 21 5 19 Jun Jul 2002 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 Aug Sep Oct 8 22 Nov 6 20 3 Dec 17 31 14 28 14 28 Jan Feb 2003 Mar 3−Month Treasury Bill 2−Year Treasury Securities 5−Year Treasury Securities 10−Year Treasury Securities Treasury Long−Term Average 1.16 1.20 1.18 1.17 1.15 1.16 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.15 1.09 1.13 1.71 1.70 1.80 1.75 1.67 1.72 1.69 1.63 1.62 1.57 1.47 1.47 1.69 2.89 2.91 3.12 3.11 2.96 3.01 3.02 2.94 2.87 2.76 2.61 2.62 2.91 3.92 3.94 4.10 4.10 3.97 4.01 3.98 3.95 3.89 3.78 3.65 3.65 3.90 4.99 5.00 5.13 5.11 5.00 5.00 4.95 4.97 4.95 4.86 4.77 4.77 4.96 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the intended federal funds rate. * Seven−day averages for week ending two days earlier than date shown. **Averages of rates available. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock (M2) and Money Zero Maturity Averages of Daily Figures 6400 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 6400 M2 2003 Feb 3 10 17 24 Mar 3 10 6200 Billions 5856.2 5866.8 5897.5 5877.8 5894.1 5890.0 6200 MZM 6000 6000 5800 5800 M2 MZM 5600 2003 Feb 3 10 17 24 Mar 3 10 Billions 6173.1 6166.6 6201.9 6183.6 6190.0 6173.2 5400 5600 5400 7 21 4 Jan 18 Feb 4 18 Mar 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May 8 22 5 Jun Jul 2002 19 Aug 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 Feb 2003 3 17 31 Mar M2 is the sum of M1, savings (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits and retail money funds. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Money Stock (M2) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 3/11/02 8/12/02 6.6 9/9/02 6.5 8.6 10/7/02 6.5 8.0 6.3 11/11/02 6.9 8.3 7.4 7.8 12/9/02 6.8 8.0 7.2 7.4 7.9 1/13/03 6.3 7.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 6/10/02 8/12/02 9/9/02 10/7/02 11/11/02 12/9/02 1/13/03 4.1 2/10/03 6.8 7.6 6.9 7.0 7.2 6.4 6.5 3/10/03 6.9 7.7 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.0 7.2 10.3 Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1250 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 3000 Small Time 1150 2003 Feb 1050 Mar Billions 876.4 874.3 872.9 871.5 870.5 869.9 3 10 17 24 3 10 2900 2800 950 2700 Small Time (left scale) 850 2600 Savings 750 2003 Feb Savings Deposits (right scale) 3 10 17 24 3 10 650 Mar 2500 Billions 2809.7 2847.6 2862.4 2840.9 2843.1 2864.0 2400 550 2300 7 21 4 Jan 18 4 Feb 18 1 Mar 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr May 8 Jun 22 5 Jul 19 2 Aug 16 30 14 28 11 25 Sep Oct Nov 9 23 6 Dec 20 3 Jan 17 3 Feb 2002 17 31 Mar 2003 Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. Fix Large Time Deposits and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted 1200 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Large Time 2003 Feb 1100 Mar Retail Money Billions 823.6 825.8 817.0 817.7 815.2 820.4 3 10 17 24 3 10 1200 2003 Feb Mar Billions 930.6 927.3 928.1 932.7 932.2 926.9 3 10 17 24 3 10 1100 1000 1000 Retail Money 900 900 800 800 Large Time 700 700 7 21 Jan 4 18 Feb 4 18 Mar 1 15 Apr 29 13 May 27 10 24 8 Jun 22 Jul 2002 5 19 Aug 2 16 Sep 30 14 Oct 28 11 25 Nov 9 23 Dec 6 20 Jan 3 17 3 Feb 17 31 Mar 2003 Large time deposits and retail money funds are at all despository institutions. Large time deposits are those issued in denominations of $100,000 or more. Retail money funds were originally called general purpose and broker/dealer money market funds. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Total Borrowings From Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures 1.6 Billions of Dollars 2003 Feb 12 19 26 Mar 5 12 19 1.4 1.2 Billions of Dollars Billions 0.031 0.019 0.013 0.029 0.045 0.018 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 5 May 19 3 Jun 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 6 Oct 20 4 Nov 18 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 Dec Jan Feb 2002 Mar 2003 As of January 9, 2003, borrowings include primary, secondary, and seasonal credit. Prior to that, borrowings include seasonal, adjustment, and extended credit. Fix Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States * Seasonally Adjusted 6600 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Loans & Leases Bank Credit 2003 Jan 29 5 Feb 12 19 26 5 Mar 6400 6200 5250 Billions 5893.2 5935.3 5956.6 5969.5 5992.9 6021.0 2003 Jan 29 Feb 5 12 19 26 Mar 5 Billions 4181.9 4189.7 4200.4 4199.5 4209.1 4211.1 5050 4850 6000 4650 5800 4450 Bank Credit (left scale) ** 5600 4250 5400 4050 Loans and Leases (right scale) 5200 3850 2 16 Jan 30 13 Feb 27 13 Mar 27 10 24 Apr 8 22 May 5 19 3 Jun 17 Jul 2002 31 14 Aug 28 11 25 Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 Jan 29 12 26 Feb 12 26 Mar 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions ** Includes loans and leases and securities Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fix Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies Not Seasonally Adjusted 300 Billions of Dollars 2003 Feb 12 19 26 Mar 5 12 19 250 Billions of Dollars Billions 149.7 154.0 153.4 155.8 157.3 161.6 300 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Apr Mar 8 22 5 May 19 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Jun Aug Sep 9 23 6 Oct 20 4 Nov 18 1 Dec 15 29 12 26 12 26 Jan Feb 2002 Mar 2003 Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/table1.htm. Fix Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted 1150 Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars All Banks 2003 Jan 29 Feb 5 12 19 26 Mar 5 1125 1100 1075 625 Large Banks Billions 959.9 954.5 953.8 955.9 953.3 950.6 2003 Jan 29 Feb 5 12 19 26 Mar 5 Billions 474.4 470.9 471.0 471.7 470.4 468.2 600 575 550 1050 525 Large Banks (right scale) ** 1025 500 1000 475 975 450 All Banks (left scale) * 950 425 925 400 2 16 30 Jan 13 27 13 Feb Mar 27 10 24 Apr 8 22 May 5 19 3 17 31 14 Jul Jun 2002 Aug 28 11 25 Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 Jan 29 12 26 12 Feb 26 Mar 2003 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. * Includes foreign−related institutions. ** Weekly reporting, domestically chartered banks. Fix Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Trade−Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures 125 March 1973=100 2003 Feb 12 19 26 Mar 5 12 19 120 115 January 1997=100 Major 95.6 95.2 94.5 94.1 93.0 94.9 2003 Feb 12 19 26 Mar 5 12 19 Broad 124.6 124.2 123.8 123.5 122.8 124.0 Broad Index (right scale) 110 145 140 135 130 105 125 100 120 Major Currency Index (left scale) 95 115 90 110 2 16 30 13 27 13 27 10 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr 8 22 May 5 19 Jun 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep 9 23 Oct 6 20 Nov 4 18 Dec 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 Jan 2002 Feb Mar 2003 The major currency index (MCI) comprises 7 currencies. The broad index comprises the MCI plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis