Full text of U.S. Financial Data : January 23, 1986

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RESEARCH LIRRagy

r^4inancial Data

Federal

JAN

g7

1986

January 23, 1986

Interest rates on single-family home mortgages have followed the general
downward trend in long-term rates that began early in 1984. From their recent
peaks of 14.81 percent and 12.54 percent in July 1984, the average rates on
both fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have
declined, by 317 basis points and 240 basis points, respectively. The relatively
larger declines in rates on FRMs has narrowed the rate spread between the two
types of mortgage.
Average interest rates on ARMs tend to be lower than those on FRMs because
borrowers are taking a risk that the interest rate will adjust upward and their
monthly payments will become higher. This possibility leads borrowers to reduce
their use of ARMs when the interest rate spread between the two mortgages
narrows. As the table on the back page indicates, the ongoing decline in the
FRM-ARM rate spread since July 1984 has been associated with a 17 percen­
tage point reduction in the share of the mortgage market held by ARMs.
—Michael T. Belongia
(continued on back page)

THE
FEDERAL
JRESERVE
AllVNKnf
ST.IOI is

,

\

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
242
240

DEC.

18

234.3

JAN.

I

234.9
237. !
237.8
236.3

238
236
234
232
230
228
226
224

222
220
218
216

7 21

9 19

NOV

DEC

2 19 SO 13 27 IS 27 10 24

FEB

MAR

8 22

9 19

3 17 31

14 28

AUG

APR

11

29

9 23

20

NOV

SEP

4 10

1

19 29

DEC

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGi JANUARY 22, 1986
....... ........ .........
THE ADJUSTED MONETARY
BASE IS THE ,____
SUM OF ESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL
HHBnK BANKS
w*™. CURRENCY
IN-----------------CIRCULATION
(CURRENCY HELD SY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF ALL
RESERVE
------------- --------------DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS) AND AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES.
THE MAJOR
SOURCE OF TIC ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT.
DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS
BANK. A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM THIS BANK.
RECENT DATA ARE PRELIMINARY.
ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGi

1/23/85

4/24/85

6/19/85

7/24/85

8/21/85

9.5
8.5
7.5
8.5
7.5
7.3
7.9
8.0

9.7
7.6
9.2
7.6
7.3
8.2
8.2

2.8
7.0
5.2
5.3
6.7
7.0

8.7
5.5
5.6
7.3
7.5

7.6
7.0
8.7
8.7

9/25/85 10/23/85 11/20/85

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING;
6/19/85
7/24/85
8/21/85
9/25/85
10/23/85
11/20/85
12/25/85
1/22/86


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2.3
6.4
6.9

9.9
9.5

11.2

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MONEY STOCK (Ml )

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS

of dollars

840 cr­
ises.
DEC

5 10

BILLIONS.
623.3
622.5
627.6
624.6
629. 1
622.3

3 17 31

14 28 11

JAN

25 11

FEB

25

8 22

6 20

3

17

1

15 20 12 28

MAR

0 23

7 21

4

OCT

NOV

18

2 18 30 13 27

1986
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JANUARY 13, I960
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.B RELEASE.
Ml IS THE SUM OF CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC, DEMAND DEPOSITS, OTHER CHECKABLE
DEPOSITS AND TRAVELERS CHECKS.

MONEY STOCK (Ml )
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ,

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING*

1/14/65

4/15/85

6/10/85

7/15/85

B/12/85

11.1
1 1.9
11.9
13.2
11.8
11.1
1 1.9
11.4

14.8
14.2
15.7
13.2
12.0
13. 1
12.3

13.8
16.4
12.6
11.1
12.6
11.7

17.0
11.6
9.9
12.0
11.0

1 1 .3
9.2
12.0
10.8

9/16/85 10/14/85 11/11/85

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
6/10/85
7/15/85
8/12/85
9/16/85
10/14/85
11/11/85
12/16/85
1/13/86


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2.5
8.7
7.9

12.6
10.4

13.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

4

MONEY MULTIPLIER^
CURRENCY COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK s
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RATIO

Ml MULTIPLIER

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JANUARY 13, 1986
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
174

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
___OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
- JANUARY 13, 1986 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING.
NOV.
OCT.
SEP.
— AUG.
_ JUL.
APR.
— JAN.
-

II,
14,
16,
12,
15
15,
14

1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985

172

170

5.9
7.3
6.5
7.3
7.7
8.1
7.7

168

166

CURRENCY

IMS.

B.1LL I.QNS.
170.7
170.8
171.0
171.0
171.4

5 18

5 IT 31

14 28 11

JAN

FEB

1984

23 11

MAR

25

8 22

8 20

3 17

MAY

JUN

1

15 28 12 28

8 23

7 21

4 18

OCT

NOV

2 18 30 13 27

1985

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JANUARY 13, 1986
1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml ) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE.


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PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

160

158

TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
460 rr--------,------------- .-----

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
------------------- -------- =1 *60

BILLIONS
446.7
445.8
450.8
451 .8
445.2

5 19

3 17 31

14 28 II 25 II

JAN

FEB

25

8 22

MAR

6 20

3 17

MAY

JUN

1

15 20 12 26

9 23

OCT

NOV
1986

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JANUARY 13,

1986

IS THE SU“ 0F DEMAND DEPOSITS AND OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL

TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt
1/14/85

4/15/85

6/10/85

7/15/85

8/12/8S

17.2
16.1
18.3
15.0
13.3
14.9
14.0

15.6
19.2
14.3
12.1
14.4
13.3

19.9
12.9
10.5
13.6
12.4

12.9
9.8
13.8
12.3

9/16/85 10/14/85 11/11/85

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDINGt
6/10/85
7/15/85
8/12/85
9/16/85
10/14/85
11/11/85
12/16/85
1/13/86

12.5
13.5
13.4
15. 1
13.3
12.3
13.6
12.9


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

0.7
9.5
8.6

14.7
11.9

16.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

6

YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES
AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES

PERCENT
14.0

14.0

13.0

CORPORATE
Aaa BONOS

PRIME
LOAN

INI Cl PAL
BONDS

90 DAY
CD’S

2 16 90 14 28 II

DEC
1984

29

JAN

8 22

8 22

9 10

FEB

3 IT 31

14 28 12 28

0 23

6 20

4 18

I

IS 20

IS 27 10 24

JUN
JUL
1985

1986

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: JANUARY 24,

1986
NOV.

DEC.

JAN.

1
8
15
22
29
6
13
20
27
3
10
17
24 X
31

1986.

90 DAY
CD'S

30-DAY
COMMERCIAL
PAPER

90-DAY
BANKERS”
ACCEPTANCES

CORPORATE
Aaa BONDS

CORPORATE
Baa BONDS

MUNICIPAL
BONDS mm

7.82
7.79
7.82
7.80
7.86
7.94
7.81
7.67
7.80
7.74
7.81
7.91
7.85

7.77
7.87
7.88
7.79
7.82
7.94
7.85
7.79
7.86
7.89
7.75
7.84
7.80

7.71
7.70
7.73
7.72
7.73
7.78
7.67
7.56
7.70
7.65
7.66
7.72
7.61

10.87
10.67
10.56
10.47
10.43
10.43
10.26
10.05
9.97
9.92
9.95
10. 18
10. 13

12.24
12.12
12.02
11.91
11.85
11.87
11.70
11.43
11.36
11.36
11.37
11.48
11.46

8.76
8.68
8.60
8.37
8.51
8.54
8.42
8.38
8.36
8.33
8.04
8.10
N. A.

NOTE*
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS” H.15 RELEASE.
K AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE
XX BOND BUYER”S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA
N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

SELECTED

INTEREST RATES

AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES

PERCENT
13.0

PERCENT
13.0

[CUR ITIES

TREASURY

10.0

FEDERAL.
RATE

tY BILL

2

16 30 14 28 II

DEC
1984

25

JAN

8 22

8 22

5 18

FEB

3 17 31

14 28 12 26

8 23

JUN
JUL
1985

6 20

4 18

SEP

OCT

I

15 28 13 27 10 24

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: JANUARY 24, 1986.

1986
NOV.

DEC.

JAN.

1
8
15
22
29
6
13
20
27
3
10
17
24 *
31

FEDERAL
FUNDS KX

3-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL

6-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL XXX

1-YEAR
TREASURY
BILL

5-YEAR
TREASURY
SECURITIES

LONG-TERM
TREASURY
SECURITIES

7.89
8.30
7.95
8. 13
7.71
8.49
8.03
8.05
8.02
9.55
8.20
7.94
7.87

7.20
7.25
7.29
7.23
7.18
7.24
7.10
7.06
7.02
7.04
7.13
7. 17
7.01

7.37
7.30
7.23
7.26
7.26
7.26
7.02
7.01
7.05
7.07
7. 1 1
7.28
7.14

7.41
7.36
7.34
7.30
7.33
7.35
7.13
7.07
7.09
7. 12
7.21
7.32
7.24

9.55
9.38
9.30
9.21
9. 17
9. 12
8.76
8.55
8.54
8.50
8.65
8.86
8.74

10.48
10.31
10.21
10.08
10.06
10.05
9.74
9.52
9.46
9.44
9.53
9.72
9.67

NOTE. SySRI'HI.E6TA..APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H. 15 RELEASE EXCLUDING LONG-TERM TREASURY
■ averaM^o^rates^vailaIle0**^™ BY ™IS bank'
treasury bill yields are on a discount basis.
«B» SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ELDING TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN
« AUCTI ON AVERAGE I DISCOUNT I


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BALK OF ST. LOUIS

7

8
COMMERCIAL BANK
SMALL TIME DEPOSITS!/
LARGE TIME DEPOSITS 2/
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

410
1986

BILLIONS
384.!
385.-

SMALL TIME DEPOSITS

370

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JANUARY 13, 1088
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1M

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
295

BILLIONS

— DEC,

281.7
280.6

LARGE TIME DEPOSI

280

275

270

265

260

S IB

3 17 31

14 2S II 29 II 25
JAN
FEB
MAR

1984

• 22

9 20
MAY

3 17 I 15 20 12 26
JUN
1985

B 23

7 21
OCT

4 IB
NOV

2 16 30 13 27

1986

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JANUARY 13, 1086
1/ TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN 8100,000
2/ TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

COMMERCIAL BANK
TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

StASUNALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
805 r--------1------------- 1------

_ DEC.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
------------------------------- ®°5

790.6
790.8
798. 1
799.2

5 16

3 17 31

14 28 II

JAN

25 11

25

8 22

FEB

8 20

3 17

MAY

JUN

1

15 26 12 28

6 23

7 21

4 18

OCT

NOV

2

18 30 13 27

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JANUARY 13, 1086
TOTAL TIME IS THE SUM OF SAVINGS DEPOSITS, SMALL TIME DEPOSITS AND LARGE TIME DEPOSITS.

TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING.
1/14/85

4/15/85

6/10/85

7/15/85

8/12/85

9/16/85 10/14/85 11/11/85

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDINGi
6/10/85
7/15/85
8/12/85
9/16/85
10/14/85
11/11/85
12/18/85
1/13/86

2.8
1 .6
0.8
1 . 1
1.8
1.9
2.3
2.8


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1 . 1
-0.2
0.5
1 .7
1.8
2.4
3.0

-3.7
-1.4
0.7
1 . 1
2.0
2.8

-0.3
2.3
2.4
3.2
4.0

5.3
4.5
5.0
5.5

5.5
5.7
6.3

4.6
5.7

7.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

9

10

BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

8.0

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

---------- ----

TOTAL BORROWINGS

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JANUARY 22, 1086
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ADJUSTMENT + SEASONAL BORROWINGS

7 21
NOV

5 10
DEC

2 10 90 19 27 19 27 10 24
FEB
MAR
APR

0 22

B 10

9 17 91 M 20 11 20

0 29

0 20
NOV

4 10
DEC

1

16 20

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JANUARY 22, 1088
1/ 63.767 FOR 11/27/85


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAhK OF ST. LOUIS

MMDAS,

MMMFS AND SUPER NOWS

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS,

NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)

MMDAs 1/
November
December

January

MMMFb 2/

$329.4
330.0
330.4
331.8
332.6
332.1
332.9
336.9
337.4

18
25
2
9
16
23
30
6
13

Super NOWs 3/

$239.6
242.1
241.0
241.0
240.6
240.6
239.3
236.6
243.1

$62.5
61.9
62.8
64.1
63.8
63.8
63.6
66.5
66.6

1/ Money market deposit accounts at commercial banks
2/ Total money market mutual fund balances
V NOW accounts at all depository institutions eligible to earn more than 5.25
percent

BUSINESS LOANS v
. ( COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL )
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ILL IONS OF DOLLARS
—i---------- ------------- 265

265 ---- 1----,--_ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF
_ the four Weeks ending

NOV.

6,

1985

nuo. i ,
JUL. 10,
- APR. 10,
JAN. 9,

I aoo
1985
1985
1985

DEC.

4

JAN.

1

255,634
253,612
257,024

111 I 1 I I
NOV
DEC
1984

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. JANUARY 8,

1111 I I
JUN
ig

AUG

SEP

NOV

1-11 1111
DEC

1986

1/ BUSINESS LOANS INCLUDE BANKERS* ACCEPTANCES AND COMMERCIAL PAPER.
2/ BANKS WITH DOMESTIC ASSETS GREATER THAN 81.4 BILLION


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

11

Spread Between Rates on FRMs and ARMs
and the ARM Share of New Mortgages
Date
July 1984
July 1985
December 19852

Spread1
227
177
150

ARMs as percent of
total new mortgages
66%
53
49

'Difference in basis points between the commitment interest rates on FRMs and ARMs for loans at 90
percent of sale prices
Preliminary
Source: Federal Home Loan Bank Board


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