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USFinancialData January 14, 2010 Advance Edition Calendar of Releases Titles for the current week are links to their respective releases. MONDAY* TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY* FRIDAY January 11 January 12 January 13 January 14 January 15 International Trade (Nov) A: -$36.4B PF: -$34.5B Treasury Budget (Dec) A: -$91.9B PF: -$92.0B Current Economic Conditions (Beige Book) Initial Claims (1/9) A: 444K PF: 437K A: N/A CPI (Dec) PF: 0.2% Retail Sales (Dec) A: -0.3% PF: 0.5% Core CPI (Dec) A: N/A PF: 0.1% Business Inventories (Nov) Industrial Production (Dec) PF: 0.2% A: 0.4% A: N/A PF: 0.6% Import Prices (Dec) A: 0.0% PF: 0.0% January 18 January 19 January 20 Housing Starts (Dec) CF: N/A PF: 580K January 21 Capacity Utilization (Dec) PF: 71.8% A: N/A January 22 Initial Claims (1/16) CF: N/A PF: N/A Building Permits (Dec) CF: N/A PF: 590K CF: N/A PPI (Dec) PF: 0.1% Core PPI (Dec) CF: N/A PF: 0.2% Latest Issue Monetary Trends January 25 January 26 January 27 January 28 January 29 Exisitng Home Sales (Dec) CF: N/A New Home Sales (Dec) CF: N/A Initial Claims (1/23) CF: N/A CF: N/A Latest Issue Internat'l Economic Trends FOMC Meeting Statement Durable Goods (Dec) CF: N/A CF: N/A GDP (Q4) ECI (Q4) DEFINITIONS: A, actual value; PF, previous week’s forecast; CF, current week’s forecast; K, thousand; M, million; B, billion. *The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides H.3, H.4.1, and H.6 releases each Thursday and H.10 and H.15 releases each Monday. Forecast data are from Thomson Reuters. ©Thomson Reuters, 2010. All Rights Reserved. Use, duplication, or sale of this service or the data contained herein, except as described in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Subscription Agreement, is strictly prohibited. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves MZM M2 Composition of Federal Reserve Assets and Liabilities Reserve Bank Credit and Selected Categories Other Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items Yields on Selected Securities Corporate Bond Spreads and Mortgage Interest Rates Yields on Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Treasury Securities Federal Funds Futures Market Equity Price Indices Crude Oil Prices Natural Gas Prices Exchange Rates Currency, Savings, and Small Time Deposits Institutional and Retail Money Funds, and Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Bank Loans Commercial Paper Outstanding Reference Tables Notes Conventions used in this publication: 1. Unless otherwise indicated, figure and table data are weekly and seasonally adjusted. 2. For pages 10, 14, 15 (top chart), 16 (top chart), and 22 (top and bottom right tables), the last observation is a daily average that incorporates all available data at the time of publication, which usually includes observations for the first three trading days of the week (Monday through Wednesday). The previous observations signify that week’s average. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, U.S. Financial Data Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8590. To be added to our free email notification list, please visit our web site at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd. updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Adjusted Monetary Base To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 01/14/09 04/08/09 06/17/09 5.4 07/15/09 -6.6 -13.6 08/12/09 -4.2 -8.3 06/17/09 07/15/09 08/12/09 09/09/09 10/21/09 11/18/09 -26.3 09/09/09 4.1 5.0 1.6 48.0 10/21/09 14.6 20.4 27.0 67.8 96.3 11/18/09 19.8 27.1 36.1 71.6 93.1 93.2 12/16/09 20.6 27.4 35.1 63.2 76.9 72.5 55.4 01/13/10 14.5 18.4 21.7 40.4 46.0 37.2 14.1 -10.6 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 12/31/08 03/25/09 06/03/09 07/01/09 07/29/09 08/26/09 10/07/09 06/03/09 25.5 07/01/09 -7.9 18.8 07/29/09 -7.3 13.5 -59.7 08/26/09 -2.3 18.8 -38.2 18.6 10/07/09 18.4 49.8 10.2 88.8 146.8 11/04/09 35.4 75.0 46.1 136.4 205.1 310.4 12/02/09 40.2 78.1 53.9 130.4 179.3 236.6 226.2 12/30/09 32.9 62.3 38.7 92.0 117.5 137.8 95.8 11/04/09 20.2 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data MZM Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 9700 9600 9500 9400 9300 9200 9100 9000 8900 8800 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan 2010 MZM To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 01/05/09 03/30/09 06/08/09 07/06/09 08/03/09 08/31/09 10/12/09 06/08/09 10.6 07/06/09 9.1 5.3 08/03/09 7.7 3.8 08/31/09 5.7 1.7 -2.6 -4.4 10/12/09 5.2 1.8 -1.1 -1.7 -1.9 11/09/09 4.6 1.4 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 0.8 12/07/09 4.1 1.1 -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 0.1 -1.3 01/04/10 3.4 0.5 -1.6 -2.0 -2.1 -0.9 -2.3 11/09/09 -0.1 -3.0 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data M2 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 8500 8400 8300 8200 8100 8000 7900 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan 2010 M2 To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 01/05/09 03/30/09 06/08/09 07/06/09 06/08/09 5.3 07/06/09 4.7 1.7 08/03/09 3.6 0.5 08/31/09 2.4 -0.7 -2.8 -4.9 10/12/09 2.5 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 08/03/09 08/31/09 10/12/09 11/09/09 -1.0 -0.7 11/09/09 2.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 1.4 4.7 12/07/09 2.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.8 4.2 5.0 01/04/10 2.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 1.3 3.1 3.0 1.1 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Composition of Federal Reserve Assets End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 3500 Short-Term Lending to Financial Firms and Markets Rescue Operations 3000 Operations Focused on Longer-Term Credit Conditions Traditional Portfolio Traditional Portfolio and Long-Term Assets 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 2009 Composition of Federal Reserve Liabilities End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 3000 Source Base (not adjusted for reserve requirement changes) Treasury Financing Account Traditional Liabilities and Capital Account 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Nov Dec Jan 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2009 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Reserve Bank Credit and Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 2400 2100 1800 Reserve Bank Credit 1500 1200 900 U.S. Treasury Securities 600 300 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 2009 Term Auction Credit Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 540 480 420 360 300 240 180 120 60 0 Nov Dec 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2009 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Federal Reserve Purchases of Agency Debt and Mortgage-Backed Securities Averages of Daily Figures Billions of Dollars 1000 800 Mortgage-Backed Securities 600 400 200 Purchases of Agency Debt 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Dec Jan 2010 2009 Federal Reserve Holdings in the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility Averages of Daily Figures Billions of Dollars 50 40 30 20 10 0 Nov Dec Jan 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2009 Aug Sep Oct Nov Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 7 Corporate Aaa 6 5 4 Prime Rate 3 2-Year Swap 2 1 30-Day Nonfinancial Commercial Paper 0 Nov Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Dec Jan 2010 2009 Percent 5 4 10-Year Treasury 3 2 Intended Federal Funds Rate 1 Federal Funds Rate 3-Month Treasury FFR Target Range || | 0 Nov Dec 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2009 Aug Sep Oct Nov Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Corporate Bond Yields Relative to Yields on 10 - Year Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 7 6 Baa - 10Y 5 4 3 2 Aaa - 10Y 1 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 2009 Interest Rates on 30 - Year Conforming and Jumbo Mortgages Averages of Daily Figures Percent 8.0 7.5 Jumbo 7.0 6.5 6.0 Conforming 5.5 5.0 4.5 Nov Dec Jan 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2009 Aug Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Averages of Daily Figures Percent 5 4 3 2 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 2009 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Averages of Daily Figures Percent 4 3 2 1 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 2009 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spread Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3 2 1 0 Nov Dec 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2009 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts Daily Data Percent 0.7 0.6 Mar 2010 0.5 0.4 Feb 2010 | | | 0.3 Jan 2010 0.2 FFR Target Rate Range 0.1 0.0 Aug Sep Nov Oct 2009 Dec Jan 2010 Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates Percent 0.35 Week Ending: 11/16/09 12/15/09 01/13/10 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 Jan 2010 Feb 2010 Mar 2010 Apr 2010 May 2010 Jun 2010 Contract Month Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Averages of Daily Figures Closing Price February 5, 1971 = 100 12000 2400 11000 2200 10000 2000 Dow Jones (left scale) 9000 1800 8000 1600 7000 1400 NASDAQ (right scale) 6000 1200 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Wilshire 5000 and Standard & Poor's 500 Averages of Daily Figures January 2, 1980 = 1078.29 1941-43 = 10 12000 1200 11000 1100 Wilshire** (left scale) 10000 1000 9000 900 S&P* (right scale) 8000 800 7000 700 6000 600 Nov Dec 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2009 Nov Dec Jan 2010 *Copyright 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Standard & Poor's including its subsidiary corporations ("S&P") is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited without S&P's prior written permission. **Source: Wilshire Associates Incorporated, www.wilshire.com Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Crude Oil Spot Prices West Texas Intermediate, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per barrel 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Nov Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Nov Oct Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Crude Oil Futures Prices West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel 90 88 86 01/06/2010 84 82 01/13/2010 80 78 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2010 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2011 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Natural Gas Spot Prices Henry Hub, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per million btu 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Nov Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Nov Oct Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Natural Gas Futures Prices Henry Hub Dollars per million btu 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50 01/06/2010 6.25 6.00 5.75 01/13/2010 5.50 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2010 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2011 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures March 1973=100 January 1987=100 100 120 95 115 90 110 Broad Index (right scale) 85 105 80 100 Major Index (left scale) 75 95 70 90 65 85 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Exchange Rates Averages of Daily Figures Euro/US$ Yen/US$ 0.80 108 Euro (left scale) 0.75 104 0.70 100 0.65 96 0.60 92 Japan (right scale) 0.55 88 0.50 84 Nov Dec Jan 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2009 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 870 860 850 840 830 820 810 800 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1420 5300 1340 4900 Small Time (left scale) 1260 4500 1180 4100 Savings (right scale) 1100 3700 1020 3300 Nov Dec 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2009 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Institutional and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 2700 2300 2500 2100 Institutional Money (left scale) 2300 1900 2100 1700 1900 1500 1700 1300 1500 1100 Retail Money (right scale) 1300 900 1100 700 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Nov Oct Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Total Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Nov Dec Jan 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2009 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Note: Total borrowings include loans to depository institutions for primary, secondary, and seasonal credit, primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also contains asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc.,net, term asset-backed securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 9800 8000 9550 7750 Bank Credit (left scale) 9300 7500 9050 7250 Loans and Leases (right scale) 8800 7000 8550 6750 8300 6500 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan 2010 Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1800 1200 1700 1100 All Banks (left scale) 1600 1000 1500 900 1400 800 Large Banks (right scale) 1300 700 1200 600 Nov Dec 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2009 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Commercial Paper Outstanding of Nonfinancial Companies Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2008 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2010 2009 Commercial Paper Outstanding: Financial and Asset-Backed Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 900 800 Asset-Backed 700 Financial 600 500 400 Nov Dec Jan 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2009 Aug Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 01/14/10 U.S. Financial Data Interest Rates Percent Oct Nov Dec Jan 30-Day Comm. Paper 90-Day CDs 23 0.12 0.24 1.33 5.16 6.30 30 0.12 0.22 1.32 5.22 6.34 Federal Funds 3-Month Treasury Bill 2-Year Treasury Securities 5-Year Treasury Securities 10-Year Treasury Securities 4.31 0.12 0.07 0.99 2.38 3.43 4.22 4.39 0.11 0.07 0.98 2.41 3.49 4.30 2-Year Corporate Corporate Municipal Interest Rate Swap Aaa Bonds Baa Bonds Bonds 30-Year Treasury Securities 6 0.11 0.22 1.26 5.27 6.39 4.41 0.12 0.05 0.90 2.35 3.53 4.36 13 0.16 0.22 1.17 5.28 6.40 4.40 0.12 0.07 0.84 2.30 3.48 4.40 20 0.12 0.21 1.06 5.16 6.27 4.35 0.12 0.04 0.76 2.19 3.35 4.28 27 0.14 0.20 1.04 5.07 6.24 4.33 0.11 0.05 0.73 2.12 3.30 4.25 4 0.13 0.21 1.07 5.11 6.29 4.24 0.12 0.06 0.73 2.10 3.34 4.29 11 0.14 0.22 1.14 5.25 6.37 4.19 0.12 0.03 0.78 2.18 3.47 4.44 18 0.13 0.22 1.17 5.26 6.33 4.18 0.12 0.04 0.84 2.31 3.56 4.48 25 0.15 0.21 1.25 5.32 6.42 4.21 0.12 0.07 0.95 2.50 3.76 4.61 1 . 0.21 1.40 5.34 6.41 4.25 0.11 0.08 1.10 2.64 3.83 4.64 8 0.14 0.21 1.31 5.30 6.34 4.31 0.08 0.06 1.02 2.60 3.83 4.67 15 * 0.14 0.20 1.19 5.31 6.28 . 0.11 0.05 0.95 2.54 3.80 4.69 *Averages of rates available Money Stock and Components Reserves and Base Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Nov 23 Dec Jan M2 MZM Currency Small Time 8392.3 9555.7 858.8 1097.1 Savings Retail Money 4799.4 819.1 Institutional Money 2260.5 Oct Nov 30 8414.7 9565.1 858.3 1091.1 4817.9 814.4 2241.5 7 8402.0 9542.7 858.6 1082.9 4823.8 810.5 2223.6 14 8405.1 9537.4 858.2 1075.2 4843.7 803.4 2207.5 21 8397.1 9500.5 857.4 1068.4 4845.0 798.1 28 8413.2 9515.8 857.4 1061.5 4866.2 797.4 4 8366.7 9537.8 856.8 1054.2 4788.9 799.3 2225.3 Bank Loans and Credit 21 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves 1963.548 1092.02 4 2024.372 1169.75 18 2010.211 1151.62 2 2081.232 1238.61 2171.8 16 2035.958 1202.87 2164.1 30 1994.435 1123.98 13 1971.456 Dec Jan . Exchange Rates Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Dec Jan Bank Credit Loans and Leases C&I Loans (All) C&I Loans (Large) Comm. Paper (sa) Total Borrowings 2 9106.1 6792.1 1355.9 669.4 115.7 102.515 9 9111.6 6774.2 1349.6 666.5 108.8 84.479 16 9095.8 6747.7 1344.9 664.7 109.4 23 9047.3 6708.6 1338.3 662.9 101.4 30 9069.6 6718.4 1337.7 660.6 Major Exchange Broad Exchange Exchange Rate: Euro/$ Rate Index Rate Index Exchange Rate: Yen/$ Nov 27 72.8 100.8 0.667 88.1 Dec 4 72.5 100.5 0.666 87.6 86.771 11 73.5 101.4 0.679 88.6 87.080 18 74.4 102.0 0.691 89.8 103.1 88.133 25 74.8 102.5 0.698 91.5 1 74.7 102.4 0.697 92.3 8 74.4 101.7 0.695 92.5 6 . . . . 111.0 90.127 13 . . . . 116.2 87.995 Jan Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. Financial Data Definitions M1: The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float. M2: M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts. M3: M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits; repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all banking offices in Canada and the United Kingdom; and institutional money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000 or more). Notes Cover Page: Economic forecasts are median responses from the Thomson Reuters Weekly Economic Survey, which is sent out to 20 to 25 Wall Street economists each week (usually on Tuesday). These forecasts are released on Friday—at which time, Thursday’s USFD cover page will be updated. Page 3: Adjusted Monetary Base equals the sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 1996b, 2001, 2003). Page 4: Adjusted Reserves is defined as the sum of vault cash and Federal Reserve Bank deposits held by depository institutions and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series, a spliced chain index, is numerically larger than the Board of Governors’ measure, which excludes vault cash not used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements and Federal Reserve Bank deposits used to satisfy required clearing balance contracts; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 2001, 2003). Page 5: MZM includes the zero maturity, or immediately available, components of M3. MZM equals M2 minus small-denomination time deposits, plus institutional money market mutual funds (that is, the money market mutual funds included in M3 but excluded from M2). The label MZM, or “Money, Zero Maturity,” was coined by William Poole (1991) for this aggregate, proposed earlier by Motley (1988). Readers are cautioned that since early 1994 the level and growth of M1 have been depressed by retail sweep programs that reclassify transactions deposits (demand deposits and other checkable deposits) as savings deposits overnight, thereby reducing banks’ required reserves; see Anderson and Rasche (2001) and research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/swdata.html. Page 7: The asset groups are aggregates of the following categories on the H.4.1: Short-term lending to financial firms and markets is the sum of repurchase agreements, term auction credit, commercial paper funding facility, central bank liquidity swaps, money market investor funding facility, other loans (less AIG loan), and other assets. Rescue operations is the sum of credit extended to AIG, and net Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis portfolio holdings of Maiden Lanes I, II, III, and preferred interests in AIA Aurora and ALICO Holdings. Operations focused on long term credit conditions is the sum of Federal Reserve agency obligations held outright, mortgage backed securities, the term asset-backed securities loan facility (TALF), and the TALF LLC. Traditional portfolio is the sum of treasury securities, gold certificate account, special drawing rights, coin, items in process of collection, and bank premises. On the liability side, Source base is the sum of deposits of depository institutions and Federal Reserve notes. Treasury financing account appears on the H.4.1. Traditional liabilities and capital account is the sum of deferred availability cash items, foreign official account deposits, U.S. Treasury general account, accrued dividends, reverse repurchase agreements, other deposits, and capital accounts. H.4.1 data are not seasonally adjusted. Page 8: Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities include nominal and inflation-indexed securities and the compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of inflation-indexed securities (inflation compensation). Term Auction Credit are collateralized, term funds (28-day) that are auctioned to depository institutions under the temporary Term Auction Facility. Term Auction Credit became a Federal Reserve balance sheet item as of December 27, 2007. For more information on the Term Auction Facility, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/taf.htm. Page 9: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.4.1 release. For more information on these programs, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/recentactions.htm. Page 10: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the Intended Federal Funds Rate. Federal Funds Rate represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the release. Page 11: Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury security, Aaa- and Baarated corporate bonds, and the interest rate on 3-year conforming mortgages appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release. The interest rates on jumbo mortgages (typically, mortgages in excess of $417,000) are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Page 12: 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield is the most recently issued inflation-indexed bond of 10-year original maturity. 10-Year Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spread equals the difference between the yield on the most recently issued 10-year inflationindexed bond and the unadjusted 10-Year Treasury Note Yield of similar maturity. Page 13: Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts trace through time the yield on three specific contracts. Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates displays a single day’s snapshot of yields for contracts expiring in the months shown on the horizontal axis. Page 15: Crude Oil (West Texas intermediate) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 16: Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 17: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 release. The Major Index comprises 7 currencies. The Broad Index comprises the Major Index plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Page 18: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Savings Deposits is the sum of money market deposit accounts and passbook and statement savings. Small Time Deposits have a minimum initial maturity of 7 days. Savings deposits and small time deposits 23 U.S. Financial Data are at all depository institutions. Page 19: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 and H.4.1 releases. Retail Money Funds are included in M2. Institutional Money Funds are not part of M2; they used to be included in M3, which was discontinued as of March 23, 2006. See www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted monetary base, adjusted reserves, and MZM. Total Borrowings include loans to depository institutions for (i) primary, secondary, and seasonal credit and (ii) primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also includes the assetbacked commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc., term assetbacked securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Data and recent information regarding Federal Reserve lending programs appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 release at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Standard & Poor’s Standard & Poor’s 500 composite index. Page 20: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. Bank Loans and Credit include foreign-related institutions. Bank Credit includes loans and leases and securities. All Banks includes foreign-related institutions. Large Banks are domestically chartered banks (adjusted for mergers) and report on a weekly basis. Page 21: Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/outstandings.htm. Page 22: Treasury Security yields are Treasury constant maturities as reported in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s H.15 release. The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the secondary market yield from the H.15 release. Federal Funds represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the table. Municipal Bonds represents Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Sources Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Monetary aggregates and components: H.6 release. Bank credit: H.8 release. Total Borrowings and Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items: H.4.1 release. Interest rates: H.15 release. Exchange rates: H.10 release. Commercial paper: Board of Governors web site. Chicago Board of Trade Federal funds futures contract. Dow Jones Indexes 24 Dow Jones Industrial Average. NASDAQ Stock Market, Incorporated NASDAQ Composite®. U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. inflation-indexed security yields. Wall Street Journal Jumbo mortgage interest rates, oil (West Texas intermediate) and natural gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices. Wilshire Associates Incorporated (www.wilshire.com) Wilshire 5000 ®. References Anderson, Richard G. and Robert H. Rasche (1996a). “A Revised Measure of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 78(2), pp. 3-13. ____ and ____(1996b). “Measuring the Adjusted Monetary Base in an Era of Financial Change,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/ December, 78(6), pp. 3-37. ____ and ____(2001). “Retail Sweep Programs and Bank Reserves, 1994-1999,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February, pp. 51-72. ____ and ____ , with Jeffrey Loesel (2003). “A Reconstruction of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and Reserves,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October, 85(5), pp. 39-70. Motley, Brian (1988). “Should M2 Be Redefined?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Winter, pp. 33-51. Poole, William (1991). Statement before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, November 6, 1991. Government Printing Office, Serial No. 102-82. Note: Articles from this Bank’s Review are available on the Internet at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis