Full text of U.S. Financial Data : February 3, 1994
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ii^ci reserve Bank FES 0 7 IQ94 mi; FFDKIUI j kfsfk K Wh of\f; Or SI.KH IN 77fE WEEK'S HIGHLIGHTS: >/ The composite index of leading economic indicators increased 0.7percent in December, following consecutive 0.5percent increases in October and November. The largest boost came from the index of consumer expectations. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 5.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 1993, according to the advance estimate, after rising at a 2.9 percent rate in the third quarter. For 1993, real GDP rose 2.8 percent, compared with a 3.9 percent increase in 1992. ✓ Prices, as measured by the implicit price deflator for GDP, rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of1993, after increasing at a 1.6percent rate in the third quarter. For 1993, prices rose 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent in 1992. The Federal Reserve Board recently revised money stock measures and related items. This revision reflects annual benchmark and seasonal factor adjustments. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research and Public Information Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The cost for a subscription is as follows: One year (50 issues) $21 Two years (100 issues) $36 To subscribe, please send your check or money order made payable to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to: Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 66953, St. Louis, MO 63166-6953. DO NOT SEND CASH. Checks from foreign subscribers must be payable in U.S. dollars and, except for those from Canada, must be drawn on a U.S. bank. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) elec tronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal computer and a modem at 314-621-1824. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 1994 Billions of Dollars Billions Nov 24 -Dec 8 22 Jan 5 423.4 422.7 423.3 425.0 Feb 432.' 2 December 8, 1993 are not available. *Bceak in series—revised 2 It it tl 27 It !t 10 24 7 2t 5 19 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2 11 JO It 2! 11 25 I 12 ( 20 J 17 I 15 20 12 !t I 23 Jun Sep Feb 1992 Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec 1993 Jan 1994 Latest data plotted reserve maintenance period ending: February 2, 1994 The adjusted monetary base is the sum of reserve accounts of financial institutions at Federal Reserve banks, currency in circulation (currency held by the public and in the vaults of all depository institutions) and an adjustment for reserve requirement ratio changes. The major source of the adjusted monetary base is Federal Reserve credit. Data are computed by this bank. A detailed description of the adjusted monetary base is available from this bank. Recent data are preliminary. Adjusted Monetary Base To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 7/7/93 8/4/93 9/1/93 9/29/93 10/27/93 12/8/93 1/5/94 2/2/94 Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 2/3/93 4/28/93 7/7/93 8/4/93 9/1/93 9/29/93 10/27/93 12/8/93 9.9 10.8 10.9 10.8 11.6 10.3 9.7 10.5 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 12.6 12.4 11.9 12.9 10.9 10.0 11.0 13.9 12.4 13.9 10.7 9.5 10.9 Beginning December 8, 1993 data are cm the revised basis and are not comparable to prior data; therefore, special caution should be taken in Interpreting growth rates. 10.6 13.2 9.5 8.4 10.1 14.0 8.9 7.7 9.9 8.7 7.1 10.0 2.9 7.6 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Slock (Ml) and Total Checkable Deposits Averages of Doily Figures Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 1160 ^ Billions of Dollars —— M1 850 — ^Breal In saries— evised data prior tc Novem Der 1, 1993 ax•e not availat le. 1135 1110 1994 ~~ Dec 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 Bi lions 11 28.7 11 31.0 11 30.0 11 30.2 11 32.6 11 36.0 830 _ . 810 ^/ /*" * 1085 1 (left scale) 1060 770 f r* 1035 790 /v A s/' / 750 TCD 1010 199 4 Billions Dec 20 799.6 27 801.7 3 799.6 __ 0 798.4 7 799.7 24 802.1 TC ) (right scale] 985 960 *Brea c in series— revised data >rior t Novem Der 29 7 21 Dec 1993 are not avail<xble. 4 18 1 15 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 Jan Jul Feb Mar Apr 1992 May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1993 I 3 17 31 14 28 Jan Feb 1994 Latest data plotted week ending: January 24, 1994 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.6 release. M1 is the sum of currency held by the nonbank public, demand deposits, other checkable deposits and travelers checks. Total checkable deposits is the sum of demand deposits and other checkable deposits at depository institutions. Money Stock (Ml) T II Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 1/25/93 4/26/93 6/21/93 7/26/93 8/23/93 9/27/93 10/25/93 11/22/93 ending: 6/21/93 7/26/93 8/23/93 9/27/93 10/25/93 11/22/93 12/27/93 1/24/94 10.1 10.1 10.4 11.0 10.8 10.5 10.1 9.7 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17.0 15.9 15.5 14.5 13.6 12.6 11.8 11.3 12.3 11.7 10.9 10.2 9.5 13.3 12.1 11.0 10.1 9.3 Beginning November 1, 1993 data are on the revised basis and are not comparable to prior data; therefore, special caution should be taken in interpreting growth rates. 12.0 10.6 9.6 8.7 8.5 7.9 7.2 7.2 6.5 6.0 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 710 690 4 Adjusted Reserves Billions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 110 1994 Billions Nov 10 101.2 24 103.5 Dec 8 102.0 22 Jan 106 102.2 5 103.0 19 103.2 102 90 94 90 86 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 10 24 7 21 5 IS 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 1992 1993 15 29 12 26 I 23 1994 Latest data plotted two weeks ending: January 19, 1994 Adjusted reserves is the difference between adjusted monetary base and currency component of Ml. Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: 6/23/93 7/21/93 8/18/93 9/15/93 10/13/93 11/24/93 12/22/93 1/19/94 Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 1/20/93 11.7 13.4 12.3 9.4 11.7 10.9 9.6 9.9 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4/14/93 24.9 20.2 14.1 16.8 14.7 12.5 12.6 6/23/93 14.0 5.4 11.7 10.1 7.9 8.6 7/21/93 8/18/93 9/15/93 10/13/93 11/24/93 Beginning December 8, 19S3 data are on the revised basis and are not comparable to prior data; therefore, special caution should be taken in -2.6 8.0 7.4 5.3 6.5 interpreting growth rates. 9.4 8.0 5.3 6.7 16.1 10.1 10.8 2.1 5.2 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Money Multiplier1/ Averages ot Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted Ratio Ratio Compounded annual rates of change, average of the four weeks ending January 17, 1994 from the four weeks ending: Jan 18, 1993 -0.2 Apr 26, 1993 1.5 Jul 19, 1993 0.5 Aug 30, 1993 0.7 Sep 27, 1993 -0.6 Oct 25, 1993 2.5 Nov 22, 1993 0.0 7 21 Dec 1992 Nov 8 Dec 6 2.663 2.664 — 4 18 1 15 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1993 2.8 11 25 § 22 6 20 Oct Nov Dec 1994 Latest data plotted two weeks ending: January 31, 1994 Currency Component of Ml2/ Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars beasonany Adjusted Compounded annual rates of change, average of the four weeks ending January 24, 1994 from the four weeks ending: Jan 25. 1993 10.2 Apr 26, 1993 10.4 Jul 26, 1993 10.1 Aug 23, 1993 9.8 Sep 27, 1993 7.8 Oct 25, 1993 8.7 Nov 22, 1993 8.8 data prior 1994 Billions Dec 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 321.3 321.5 322.5 323.7 325.0 325.9 7 21 4 H I 15 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1992 1993 1994 Latest data plotted week ending: January 31, 1994 1/ Ratio of M1 to adjusted monetary base 2/ Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.6 release. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 6 Yields on Selected Securities Percent Percent Averages of Daily Figures * ** — 7.0 9.0 Corp orate Aaa k>ndt /✓ * ---------- 1------ 9.0 \ r ** s' — v— '*•**«. * p ime Bo u x>n Rot <■ ^^, • V**' . S ✓ 4 Munic pal Bor da _ -*■ < w —. ■ — 5.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 V Cor nmerck 1 Paper 2.0 4 IB 1 15 29 12 28 12 26 9 23 7 21 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 11 25 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 1993 1992 Latest data plotted are averages of rates available for the week ending: February 4, 1994 1994 90—Day CDs 30—Day Commercial Paper 90-Day Bankers' Acceptances Nov 12 19 26 Dec 3 10 17 24 31 Jan 7 14 21 28 Feb 4 * 3.36 3.33 3.36 3.35 3.31 3.23 3.20 3.24 3.22 3.13 3.12 3.12 3.16 3.15 3.14 3.15 3.27 3.41 3.34 3.31 3.35 3.21 3.12 3.13 3.11 3.12 3.30 3.28 3.29 3.30 3.26 3.20 3.18 3.21 3.16 3.09 3.07 3.07 3.12 Corporate Aaa Bonds 6.92 6.94 6.99 6.95 6.86 6.97 6.95 6.94 7.01 6.87 6.92 6.91 6.89 1994 Corporate Baa Bonds Municipal Bonds ** 7.65 7.69 7.74 7.70 7.61 7.72 7.70 7.71 7.75 7.61 7.64 7.62 7.58 5.46 5.46 5.49 5.46 5.33 5.36 5.34 5.28 5.34 5.31 5.29 5.28 NA Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.15 release. * Averages of rates available •• Bond Buyer's Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data N A - Not Available Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2.0 Selected Interest Rates Percent Percent Averages of Daily Figures Discount Nov Dec 1993 Latest data plotted are averages of rates available for the week ending: February 4, 1994 1994 Federal Funds ** 3—Month Treasury Bill 6-Month Treasury Bill *** 1—Year Treasury Bill 5—Year Treasury Securities Long-Term Treasury Securities Nov 12 19 26 Dec 3 10 17 24 31 Jan 7 14 21 28 Feb 4 * 2.96 3.10 3.28 3.39 5.04 6.17 3.03 3.11 3.26 3.42 5.04 6.20 2.98 3.12 3.30 3.46 5.13 6.30 3.09 3.12 3.26 3.46 5.14 6.25 2.92 3.07 3.27 3.44 5.10 6.14 2.94 3.04 3.26 3.47 5.18 6.26 2.99 3.06 3.25 3.45 5.16 6.24 2.99 3.02 3.21 3.45 5.14 6.22 3.00 3.05 3.29 3.46 5.21 6.30 2.98 2.97 3.18 3.38 5.03 6.15 3.13 2.96 3.15 3.36 5.06 6.17 2.97 2.93 3.14 3.35 5.05 6.16 3.17 3.02 3.16 3.41 5.08 6.14 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.15 release excluding long-term Treasury securities which are computed by this bank. Treasury bill yields are on a discount basis. * Averages of rates available •* Seven-day averages for week ending two days earlier than date shown Auction average (discount) http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 8 Money Stock (M2) and Non-Mi Components of M2 Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 3585 ~ Billions of Dollars 2725 I M2 3560 1994 Billions Dec 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 3566.5 3566.3 3568.6 3‘>68.8 3J>75.4 3f>74.4 m; (left s :ale) r* T 2625 r' 0 JL 2525 —* 1 — 3510 ----------- W 3535 • _ \ ,e^eS' r C------- No n-M1 M2 MLons 199 4 Dec 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 3485 3460 2425 ► OX-M1 M2(ri< ht sea e) 4 18 Dec Jan 1992 15 Feb 2437.8 2435.3 2438.6 2438.6 2442.8 2438.4 2325 ___ I___ I___ 2225 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 5 19 Jul Mar Apr May Jun 1993 16 3 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 2 Aug Sep Oct Jan Feb Nov Dec 1994 Latest data plotted week ending: January 24. 1994 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.6 release. M2 is the sum of M1, overnight RPs issued by all commercial banks, overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks, savings (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits and general purpose and broker/dealer money market mutual funds. For more detail, see the H.6 release. Money Stock (M2) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average 1/25/93 4/26/93 6/21/93 7/26/93 8/23/93 9/27/93 10/25/93 11/22/93 of four weeks Beginning November 1, 1993 data ending: 6/21/93 7/26/93 8/23/93 9/27/93 10/25/93 11/22/93 12/27/93 1/24/94 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.6 4.2 4.0 3.8 0.9 1.8 1.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.3 2.4 3.8 3.5 3.3 are on the revised basis and are not comparable to prior data; therefore, special caution should be taken in interpreting growth rates. 2.1 4.0 3.6 3.4 4.4 3.7 3.3 5.2 4.2 2.4 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Savings and Money Market Funds Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars 1250 1220 Billions of Dollars 410 I I Savings 1994 Billions Dec 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 1215.8 1216.8 12 15.2 12 16.8 12 24.6 12 20.9 380 Sov ngs Dsposits [left sc ale) O9 1100 350 ■ ■ "V \ •Si «— ** / v' >V<* " ^ N 1160 320 Mono y Mark it (righ scale Mo iey Ma rket 199 Billi<3ns 1130 r 1100 Hr i i Dec 1992 ' r» i » T~r~l Jan Feb -- ■ i » r l"r T ■ 1 1 1 1 1 1 Li 1 i ' mr Tl * 1 -■ i ■ i1 1 1 1 1 1*1 4 Mar — Nov Apr May, Jun Jul 1993 Aug Sep Oct Dec JO 27 3 10 17 24 35C).1 349.4 — 351.1 351.5 349.3 348.5 Jan nr* i 1 290 1 ~r 1 J ■ i * Dec Jan Feb 1994 Note: Savings deposits are at all depository institutions. Money market funds are general purpose and broker/dealer. Large and Small Time Deposits1 / M Depository Institutions Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars ^ Averages of Daily Figures. Seasonally Adjusted I I 1005 Small Time 1994 Large Time (left scale) ) November 29, Billions Dec 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 1993 are not 786.1 785.3 783.6 782.4 — 781.4 780.5 available- Revised data pci°r W in 3«'-eS're 2 I I ~ --------- 310 280 Large irae 1994 - Dec 20 27 Jan 3 10 17 24 2 21 Dec Time Billions 338.5 ■ 336.9 339.3 340.5 342.3 342.5 875 — , __ • 810 Small Tima (right scale) 4 IS 1 15 1 15 29 12 2i 10 24 7 21 S 19 2 11 31 13 27 11 25 1 22 1 20 3 17 31 14 20 Jan Nov Feb 940 Mar 1992 Apr May Jun Jul 1993 Aug Sep Oct Dec Jan Feb 1994 Latest data plotted week ending: January 24, 199+ 1/ Large time deposits are those issued in denominations of $100,000 or more. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 745 10 I Ola uunOWnyo From Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 1994 Billions Dec 29 Jan 5 12 19 26 Feb 2 0.045 0.237 0.018 0.128 0.039 0.051 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 26 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1992 1993 1994 Adjustment + Seasonal Borrowings Billions of Dollars From Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of Dollars 1994 Dec 29 Jan 5 12 19 26 Feb 2 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 10 2 4 7 21 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 1992 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1993 Billions 0.045 — 0.237 0.018 0.128 0.039 — 0.051 6 20 3 1 7 1 15 29 12 2 6 9 23 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1994 Latest data plotted week ending: February 9, 1994 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Commercial Paper of Nonfinandal Companies Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Not Seasonally Adjusted Billions Dec 22 Jan 148.612 5 149.414 152.603 154.383 154.731 2 II 3# 13 27 10 24 10 24 7 21 5 1! 2 II 30 14 21 11 25 8 22 I 20 3 17 1 15 2! 12 21 9 23 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1992 1993 1994 Latest data plotted week ending: January 26, 1994 Commercial and Industrial Loans1/ Weekly Reporting Large Commercial Banks2/ Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Compounded annual rates of change, average of the four weeks ending January 19, 1994 from the four weeks ending: Jan 20, 1993 -1.3 Aug Sep Oct Nov 18, 22. 20, 17, 1993 1993 1993 1993 Billions of Dollars 1994 Dec 15 22 29 Jan 5 12 19 Billions 278.850.!— 280.153 278.896 277.784 278.201 280.224. -1.0 -0.5 -0.1 -■ 1992 1994 Latest data plotted week ending: January 19, 1994 1/ Commercial and industrial loans include banker's acceptances and commercial paper. 2/ Banks with domestic assets greater than $1.4 billion _ Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 315 Dollar's Trade-Weighted Exchange Index 1973=100 1973=100 Averages of Daily Figures 1994 1973=100 Dec 29 2 It 30 13 27 10 24 10 24 7 21 5 1! 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 9 23 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 1992 1993 1994 Latest data plotted week ending: February 2, 1994 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.10 release. Data are weighted averages of the foreign-currency price of the U.S. dollar, computed using 10 industrial country currencies. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis o s-< 3 3S O % « U http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis