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February 28, 2002

s Chairman Alan Greenspan delivered the Federal Reserve’s
semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Feb. 27. In his
testimony, he noted the FOMC’s economic projections for 2002:
[T]he central tendency of the forecasts of the members of
the Federal Open Market Committee is for real GDP to rise
2-1/2 to 3 percent during 2002. Such a pace for the growth
of real output is somewhat below the rates of growth typically
seen early in previous expansions…In line with past experience during the early stages of expansion, labor market
performance is expected initially to lag as firms rely primarily
on overtime and shifts from part-time to full-time work. The
unemployment rate is anticipated to rise somewhat further
over 2002, to the area of 6 to 6-1/4 percent. FOMC members
evidently anticipate that slack in resource utilization, the
lagged effects of past declines in energy prices, and
productivity growth will keep inflation low this year, with
the price index for personal consumption expenditure
increasing about 1-1/2 percent.
s Revised estimates showed that real GDP rose at a 1.4 percent
annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2001, 1.2 percentage
points above the advance estimate published in January.
s In January, the current-dollar value of new orders for manufactured
durable goods rose 2.6 percent. The value of manufacturers’
inventories fell 0.6 percent, which was the smallest drop in nine
All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated.
U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of
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