Full text of U.S. Financial Data : December 31, 1998

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FEDERAL
A RESERVE
X HANK of
SELOUS

-3mW&
THE WEEK'S HIGHLIGHTS:
■

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6 percent
in November, with seven of the ten components contributing to the
rise. This was the second consecutive monthly rise in the Index.
Remarkably, the Index has only declined during four of the last
34 months, and all of these reversals were small.

■

Existing home sales rose at a 2.7 percent seasonally adjusted annu­
al rate in November. The 4.9 million units sold is just short of the
record pace established in July. Monthly sales of existing homes
averaged 4.76 million units during the first eleven months, well
above the average of 4.21 million units in 1997.

■

The final estimate of real GDP shows that the economy expanded at
a 3.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 1998. During the
first three quarters, the economy increased at a 3.7 percent annual
rate, very similar to the 4.1 and 3.8 percent annual rates for the
same periods in 1997 and 1996, respectively.

■

New orders for manufactured durable goods rebounded significantly
in November, increasing at a 13.2 percent annual rate. For the year,
durable goods orders are 3.4 percent higher compared with the same
period last year.

■

After rebounding significantly in November, the Conference Board’s
Consumer Confidence Index declined slightly in December. The
Index now stands at 126.1, significantly below June’s high of 138.2.

All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated.
U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8590. To be added to the mailing
list, please call (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809.

Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic
bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at www.stls.frb.org/fred.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2

Adjusted Monetary Base
Averages of Daily Figures
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars
Oct

21

Dec

2

Billions of Dollars

523.733
523.742
526.133
527.947

515“......

505-

5

-505

19

3

17 31

1 4 28

1 1 25

17

1997

1

15 29

12 26

9

23

7

21

4

1

16 30

1998

13 27

1999

The adjusted monetary base is the sum of Federal Reserve deposits and vault cash held by domestic depository
institutions, currency held by the public, and an adjustment for the effect of changes in reserve requirement
ratios. The monetary base series was recently revised to include Federal Reserve deposits used to satisfy
clearing balance contracts. Data are computed by this bank. A detailed description of the adjusted monetary
base is available from this bank. Recent data are preliminary.

Adjusted Monetary Base
Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending:
To the average of
two maintenance
periods ending:

12/31/97

3/25/98

6/3/98

7/1/98

7/29/98

8/26/98

9/23/98

6/3/98

4.9

7/1/98

3.7

3.1

7/29/98

4.4

4.4

3.1

8/26/98

5.3

5.7

6.0

9/23/98

5.6

6.2

6.6

9.9

11/4/98

6.6

7.3

8.2

10.8

11.3

11.0

12/2/98

6.6

7.3

8.1

10.1

10.4

9.9

10.4

12/30/98

6.5

7.1

7.7

9.3

9.4

8.8

8.9

11/4/98


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

10.5
10.3

6.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Money Zero Maturity (MZM)
Averages of Daily Figures
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

Billions
Nov

16

Dec

3914,1
3915.0
3928.4
3948.9
3957.5
3979.1

7

3650-

5 29

12 26

9

23

9

23

6

20

4

18

1

5 29 13 27

10 24

7

21

5

19

16 30

14 28

11

25

1997
MZM is M2 (seasonally adjusted) minus total small denomination time deposits (seasonally adjusted), plus institutional
money funds (seasonally adjusted), which are included in the non-M2 component of M3.

Money Zero Maturity (MZM)
Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending:
of four weeks
ending:

12/22/97

5/18/98

13.5

3/23/98

5/18/98

6/22/98

7/20/98

8/24/98

9/21/98

6/22/98

12.9

7/20/98

11.9

11.2

8/24/98

11.9

11.4

9.5

9.1

9/21/98

13.0

13.1

12.3

13.1

16.8

10/19/98

13.6

14.0

13.7

14.7

17.8

11/23/98

14.6

15.2

15.4

16.6

19.2

22.1

21.8

12/21/98

14.8

15.5

15.7

16.8

19.0

21.0

20.5

10/19/98


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

13.0
8.1

21.4

20.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

3

4
Adjusted Reserves
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars
Billions
Oct

7

Nov

4

Dec

2

68.096

66.688

75-

68.235
66.551
68.078
67.495
-75

...

5

19

3

17 3 1

14 28

11

25

11 25

8

22

20

3

1997

17

15 29

2 26

9

23

7

21

4

1

2

16 30

1998

13 27

1999

Adjusted reserves is the difference between the adjusted monetary base and the currency component of M1.
The adjusted monetary base series was recently revised: See the footnote to the monetary base chart for a
description of the change.

Adjusted Reserves
Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending:
To the average of
two maintenance
periods ending:

12/17/97

3/11/98

5/20/98

6/17/98

7/15/98

8/12/98

9/9/98

5/20/98

-8.1

6/17/98

-5.8

7/15/98

-6.5

-3.5

-1.9

8/12/98

-5.1

-1.8

0.7

-2.8

9/9/98

-3.6

-0.1

2.9

1.2

7.9

10/21/98

-2.8

0.4

2.8

1.7

5.7

11/18/98

-2.6

0.4

2.4

1.4

4.4

3.9

1.6

12/16/98

-1.8

1.1

3.1

2.4

5.0

4.8

3.4

10/21/98


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

-1.2

5.5

3.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Money Stock(M1) and Total Checkable Deposits
Averages of Daily Figures
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

Billions

Billions

1083.1
1086.0

Nov

16

618.8
621.0

1086.2
1080.8
1095.7

620.1
614.2
628.0

M1 (left scale)
1075-h

...... 645

1015-

TCD (right scale)

3

17

1 5 29

12 26

9

23

9

23

6

20

4

18

15 29

1997

13 27

10 24

7

21

5

19

16 30

14 28

1998

11

25

1999

Ml is the sum of currency held by the nonbank public, total checkable deposits and travelers checks.
Total checkable deposits is the sum of demand deposits and other checkoble deposits at depository institutions.

Currency Component of M1
Averages of Daily Figures
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

Compounded annual rates
of change, average of
the four weeks ending
December 21, 1998, from
the four weeks ending:
Dec
Ma r
Jun
J u I
Aug
Sep
0c t

22
23
22
20
24
2 1
1 9

,
,
,
,
,
,
.

1997
1998
1998
1 998
1 998
1 998
1 998

8 . 1
8 . 2
9 . 8
10.2
10.9
10.2
8 5

1998
Nov

Dec

3

17
Nov

1

15 29
Dec

12 26
Jan

9

23

Feb

9

23

Mar

6

20

27 10 24

Apr

Aug

7

21
Sep

Billions
16
23
30
7
14
21

456.3
457.1
458.0
458.0
458.6
459.6

5 ' 19 ' 2 ' 16 ' 30' 14 ’ 28 ' l'l '
Jan
1999

Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.6 release.


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

5

6

Yields on Selected Securities
Averages of Daily Figures
Percent

Percent

Prime Rate

- 7.0

Corporate
Aaa Bonds

Commercial Paper

5.0-.....

- 5.0

Municipal Bonds

7

21

5

19

2

16 30

13 27

13 27

10 24

8

22

5

1

3

17 31

14 28

11

25

9

23

6

20

4

1

1999

1998/99
Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

9
16
23
30
6
13
20
27
4
11
18
25
1

30—Day
Commercial
Paper

90-Day
CDs

90-Day
Bankers'
Acceptances

Corporate
Aaa Bonds

Corporate
Boa Bonds

5.25
5.22
5.03
5.05
5.11
5.11
4.95
4.84
5.09
5.16
5.26
5.44
5.35

5.29
5.26
5.14
5.16
5.27
5.31
5.21
5.18
5.20
5.13
5.14
5.18
5.13

5.20
5.17
5.03
5.07
5.13
5.20
5.18
5.10
5.13
5.07
5.04
5.07
5.13

6.25
6.45
6.47
6.44
6.56
6.44
6.39
6.28
6.18
6.18
6.19
6.27
6.29

7.05
7.25
7.28
7.26
7.42
7.34
7.33
7.28
7.19
7.19
7.21
7.27
7.30

Municipal
Bonds **
4.88
4.96
4.99
5.00
5.04
5.04
5.03
5.01
4.96
4.94
4.96
N.A.
N.A.

Current data are from the Federal Reserve Board's H.15 release, and are averages of rates available for the week
ending on January 1, 1999 . Beginning September 2. 1997, the commercial paper rate reflects new source data,
which is currently available only back to the first of the year.
** Bond Buyer's Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Selected Interest Rates
Averages of Daily Figures
Percent

Percent

Federal
Funds Rate
30-Year
Treasury Securities

Discount
Rate

- 4.0

3 —Month
Treasury Bill

13 27

13 27

10 24

14 28

11

25

1997

1998/99
Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

9
16
23
30
6
13
20
27
4
1 1
18
25
1 *

1999

Federal
Funds **
5.22
5.14
4.87
4.95
5.22
4.80
4.89
4.54
4.86
4.68
4.97
4.69
4.48

3—Month
Treasury
Bill

1 —Year
Treasury
Bill

5—Year
Treasury
Securities

10-Year
Treasury
Securities

30—Year
Treasury
Securities

3.96
3.84
3.85
4.12
4.43
4.42
4.35
4.47
4.38
4.36
4.37
4.44
4.46

4.01
3.96
3.84
3.93
4.27
4.34
4.33
4.38
4.26
4.31
4.27
4.41
4.40

4.18
4.22
4.17
4.22
4.45
4.51
4.59
4.62
4.39
4.39
4.36
4.59
4.60

4.41
4.58
4.59
4.63
4.83

4.88
5.02
5.08
5.12
5.29
5.27
5.26
5.21
5.05
5.00
5.01
5.16
5.13

4.82
4.85
4.83
4.64
4.60
4.59
4.75
4.71

Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.15 release.
* Averoges of rates available
** Seven-day averages for week ending two days earlier than date shown


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

7

8

Money Stock(M2) and Non-M1 Components of M2
Averages of Daily Figures
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

Billions
4379.7
4378.5

4 400-

4406.4
4425.1

M2 (left scale)
4250-

Non-M1 M2 (right scale)
Non-M1 M2
8

Billions

3308.2
3325.6
3329.4
15 29

12 26

9

23

9

23

6

20

4

15 29

1997

13 27

10 24

7

2

5

19

2

1 6 30

1 4 28

1998

1 1 25

1999

M2 is the sum of Ml, savings (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits and retail money
funds. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.6 release.

Money Stock (M2)
Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending:
To the average
of four weeks
ending:

12/22/97

3/23/98

5/18/98

6/22/98

7/20/98

8/24/98

9/21/98

5/18/98

8.3

6/22/98

7.7

6.1

7/20/98

7.3

5.8

4.9

8/24/98

7.2

6.0

5.5

5.8

9/21/98

8.1

7.5

7.8

8.9

10.8

10/19/98

8.4

8.1

8.5

9.6

11.2

11/23/98

9.0

8.9

9.5

10.5

11.9

13.9

13.0

12/21/98

8.9

8.8

9.4

10.2

11.3

12.6

11.6

10/19/98


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

14.0

11.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Savings and Small Time Deposits
Averages of Daily Figures
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

1650

Small Time
1998
Nov 16

Billions
961.9
961.3
960.6
959.3
958.6
957.1

1600
Savings Deposits (right scole)
1550

1500
Small Time (left scale)
1450

Savings
1998
Billions
Nov 16
1583.7
23
1581.4
30
1568.0
Dec
7
1594.4
14
1607.0
21
1607.6

875

3

17

15 29

12 26

Nov

15 29
Feb

Mar

Apr

May

1350

13 27 10 24
Jul

1997

1400

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

1998

1999

Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions.

Large Time Deposits and Retail Money Funds
Averages of Daily Figures
Billions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Large Time

Retail Money

754.5
764.7

Retail Money

15 29

13 27

10 24

7

2

5

19

2

16 30

14 28

II

25'

1997
1998
1999
Large time deposits and retail money funds are at all despository institutions. Large time deposits are those
issued in denominations of $100,000 or more. Retail money funds were originally called general purpose
and broker/dealer money market funds.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

9

10

Total Borrowings
From Federal Reserve Banks
Averages of Daily Figures

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars
Billions
Nov 25
Dec
2

i.o-...

0.107
0.050
0.014
0.038
0.024

-1.0

0.8-

-0.8

0.6-.........

1

14 28

11

25 11 25

22

6 20

3

17

1997

15 29

12 26

9

23

7

21

4

1

2

16 30

1998

13 27

1999

Borrowings include seasonal, adjustment and extended credit.

Bank Loans and Credit

All Commercial Banks in the United States
Billions of Dollars
Bank
3
11
18
Dec

1(/

Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Credit
Billions
4522.6
4522.2

Bank Credit (left scale)2/

2
4566.1

4250-

- 3250

Loans & Leases

4 150

3302.3

Loans and Leases (right
4050-

3327.9

22

6

20

3

17

1997

15 29

1998

12 26

9

23

7

21

4

1

2

16 30

13 27
1999

Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.8 release.
1/ Includes foreign—related institutions
2/ Includes loans and leases and securities


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

■ 255

Billions
Nov

18

Dec

2

235-

235.0
233.4
230.0
228.4
234.3

■ 245

226.1

■ 235

225

■ 215

205-a

205

195

15 29

12 26

9

23

7

21

4

2

16 30

13 27

185

1997
Note: Beginning September 2, 1997, the value of commercial paper outstanding uses new source data. See the
Federal Reserve Board's H.15 release for more information.

Commercial and Industrial Loans
Billions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars
565

All Banks

540
Dec

2
515

Large Bonks (right scale) 2/

490

Large Banks
98
Billions
All Banks (left seal

v

11

465

527.7
440

415

20' 3 ' 17

1998
Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.8 release.
1/ Includes foreign-related institutions
2/ Weekly reporting, domestically chartered banks


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

11

Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes
Averages of Daily Figures
Jonuary 1997=100

March 1973=100

Nov 25
Dec 2

Nov 25
Dec 2

130

125

115Broad Index
(Right Scale)

120

115

110

Major Currency Index
(Left Scale)

105

100
20

3

17

1

15 29 12 26

1997
1998
1999
At present, the major currency index (MCI) is comprised of 16 currencies. The broad index is comprised of the major currency
index plus 19 additional currencies. After Jan. 1. 1999. when Stage III of EMU begins, the euro will replace the 10 euro-area
currencies in the MCI. See the October 1998 issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin for further details.


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

kwmn

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