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USFinancialData December 16, 2011 Final Edition Calendar of Releases Titles for the current week are links to their respective releases. MONDAY* December 12 TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY* FRIDAY December 13 December 14 December 15 December 16 Treasury Budget (Nov) Retail Sales (Nov) A: -$137.3B PF: -$139.0B A: 0.2% PF: 0.6% Import Prices (Nov) A: 0.7% PF: 0.9% Business Inventories (Oct) A: 0.8% PF: 0.9% FOMC Meeting Statement Initial Claims (12/10) A: 366K PF: 390K A: 0.0% Current Account (Q3) A: -$110.3B PF: -$107.4B Core CPI (Nov) A: 0.2% PF: 0.1% A: 0.3% CPI (Nov) PF: 0.1% PPI (Nov) PF: 0.2% Core PPI (Nov) A: 0.1% PF: 0.2% Industrial Production (Nov) A: -0.2% PF: 0.2% December 19 December 20 Housing Starts (Nov) CF: 635K PF: 630K December 21 Existing Home Sales (Nov) CF: 5.1M PF: 5.1M Building Permits (Nov) PF: 640K CF: 635K December 22 December 23 Initial Claims (12/17) CF: 380K PF: N/A New Home Sales (Nov) CF: 313K PF: 311K GDP (Q3) CF: 2.0% PF: 2.0% Personal Income (Nov) CF: 0.2% PF: 0.3% Corporate Profits (Q3) Consumption (Nov) CF: 0.3% PF: 0.4% Core PCE (Nov) CF: 0.1% PF: N/A Durable Goods (Nov) CF: 2.0% PF: 1.0% December 26 December 27 December 28 December 29 December 30 Initial Claims (12/24) CF: N/A DEFINITIONS: A, actual value; PF, previous week’s forecast; CF, current week’s forecast; K, thousand; M, million; B, billion. *The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides H.3, H.4.1, and H.6 releases each Thursday and H.10 and H.15 releases each Monday. Forecast data are from Thomson Reuters. ©Thomson Reuters, 2008. All Rights Reserved. Use, duplication, or sale of this service or the data contained herein, except as described in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Subscription Agreement, is strictly prohibited. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves MZM M2 Composition of Federal Reserve Assets and Liabilities Reserve Bank Credit and Selected Categories Other Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items Yields on Selected Securities Corporate Bond Spreads and Mortgage Interest Rates Yields on Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Treasury Securities Federal Funds Futures Market Equity Price Indices Crude Oil Prices Natural Gas Prices Exchange Rates Currency, Savings, and Small Time Deposits Institutional and Retail Money Funds, and Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Bank Loans Commercial Paper Outstanding Reference Tables Notes Conventions used in this publication: 1. Unless otherwise indicated, figure and table data are weekly and seasonally adjusted. 2. For pages 10, 14, 15 (top chart), 16 (top chart), and 22 (top table), the last observation is a daily average that incorporates all available data at the time of publication, which usually includes observations for the first three trading days of the week (Monday through Wednesday). The previous observations signify that week’s average. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, U.S. Financial Data Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8590. To be added to our free email notification list, please visit our web site at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd. updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2010 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Adjusted Monetary Base To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 12/15/10 03/09/11 05/18/11 06/15/11 07/13/11 08/10/11 09/21/11 05/18/11 74.7 06/15/11 74.6 67.7 07/13/11 64.7 53.6 40.0 08/10/11 57.3 44.8 29.6 12.0 09/21/11 44.9 31.1 15.2 2.5 -1.4 10/19/11 40.0 26.7 12.2 1.8 -1.1 -5.6 11/16/11 34.3 21.2 7.6 -1.4 -4.3 -8.4 -7.9 12/14/11 29.4 16.7 3.8 -4.1 -6.8 -10.4 -11.2 10/19/11 -16.1 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2010 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 12/01/10 02/23/11 05/04/11 06/01/11 06/29/11 07/27/11 09/07/11 05/04/11 137.9 06/01/11 129.9 179.4 06/29/11 117.9 144.7 71.1 07/27/11 103.1 115.0 52.1 35.9 09/07/11 78.3 76.3 25.4 11.3 -2.2 10/05/11 68.1 62.8 18.7 6.9 -3.6 -11.8 11/02/11 60.5 53.6 15.0 5.0 -3.6 -9.4 -5.2 11/30/11 50.7 42.2 7.9 -1.1 -8.8 -14.2 -13.9 10/05/11 -17.1 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data MZM Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 10800 10600 10400 10200 10000 9800 9600 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2010 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 MZM To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 12/06/10 02/28/11 05/09/11 6.5 06/06/11 6.8 10.1 07/04/11 7.5 10.6 05/09/11 06/06/11 07/04/11 08/01/11 09/12/11 10/10/11 10.4 08/01/11 9.2 12.8 14.5 17.7 09/12/11 10.1 13.3 14.7 16.6 18.3 10/10/11 10.0 12.7 13.6 14.7 15.4 12.4 11/07/11 9.3 11.4 11.7 12.3 12.3 9.3 5.2 12/05/11 8.8 10.6 10.6 10.9 10.7 8.1 4.7 2.8 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data M2 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 9750 9500 9250 9000 8750 8500 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2010 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 M2 To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 12/06/10 02/28/11 05/09/11 5.3 06/06/11 5.4 5.2 07/04/11 6.8 7.6 05/09/11 06/06/11 07/04/11 08/01/11 09/12/11 10/10/11 10.9 08/01/11 9.5 11.6 17.4 23.8 09/12/11 11.6 14.2 19.7 24.1 27.2 10/10/11 11.0 13.0 16.9 19.6 20.5 16.3 11/07/11 10.3 11.9 14.7 16.4 16.4 12.4 4.1 12/05/11 9.6 10.9 12.9 14.1 13.6 10.0 3.4 2.6 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Composition of Federal Reserve Assets End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 3500 Short-Term Lending to Financial Firms and Markets Rescue Operations 3000 Operations Focused on Longer-Term Credit Conditions Traditional Portfolio Traditional Portfolio and Long-Term Assets 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Composition of Federal Reserve Liabilities End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 3000 Source Base (not adjusted for reserve requirement changes) Treasury Financing Account Traditional Liabilities and Capital Account 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Oct Nov Dec 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2011 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Reserve Bank Credit and Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 3000 2400 Reserve Bank Credit 1800 U.S. Treasury Securities 1200 600 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Term Deposits Held by Depository Institutions End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of dollars 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Oct Nov 2010 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2011 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Federal Reserve Holdings of Agency Debt and Mortgage-Backed Securities Averages of Daily Figures Billions of Dollars 1200 1000 Mortgage-Backed Securities 800 600 400 200 Purchases of Agency Debt 0 Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Nov Dec 2011 Federal Reserve Holdings in the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility Averages of Daily Figures Billions of Dollars 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 Oct Nov Dec 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2011 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 7 6 Corporate Aaa 5 4 Prime Rate 3 2 2-Year Swap 1 30-Day Nonfinancial Commercial Paper 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Percent 5 4 10-Year Treasury 3 2 1 3-Month Treasury FFR Target Range | | Federal Funds Rate | | || 0 Oct Nov 2010 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2011 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Corporate Bond Yields Relative to Yields on 10 - Year Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 4 3 Baa - 10Y 2 Aaa - 10Y 1 0 Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Interest Rates on 30 - Year Conforming and Jumbo Mortgages Averages of Daily Figures Percent 6.0 5.5 Jumbo 5.0 4.5 Conforming 4.0 3.5 Oct Nov Dec 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2011 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Treasury Note Yields Averages of Daily Figures Percent 5 30-Year 4 3 10-Year 2 5-Year 1 0 Oct Nov 2010 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yields Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3 30-Year 2 1 10-Year 0 5-Year -1 -2 Oct Nov 2010 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2011 Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spreads Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3.0 30-Year 2.5 2.0 10-Year 5-Year 1.5 1.0 Oct Nov 2010 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2011 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts Daily Data Percent 0.30 0.25 0.20 Feb 2012 0.15 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 0.10 0.05 FFR Target Rate Range 0.00 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates Percent 0.13 0.12 Week Ending: 10/19/11 11/16/11 12/14/11 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Contract Month Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Averages of Daily Figures Closing Price February 5, 1971 = 100 15000 3000 NASDAQ (right scale) 14000 2800 13000 2600 12000 2400 Dow Jones (left scale) 11000 2200 10000 2000 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Wilshire 5000 and Standard & Poor's 500 Averages of Daily Figures January 2, 1980 = 1078.29 1941-43 = 10 15000 1500 14000 1400 Wilshire** (left scale) 13000 1300 S&P* (right scale) 12000 1200 11000 1100 Oct Nov 2010 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 *Copyright 2011 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Standard & Poor's including its subsidiary corporations ("S&P") is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited without S&P's prior written permission. **Source: Wilshire Associates Incorporated, www.wilshire.com Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Crude Oil Spot Prices West Texas Intermediate, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per barrel 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Nov Oct Dec 2011 Crude Oil Futures Prices West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel 102 101 12/07/2011 100 99 98 97 96 95 12/14/2011 94 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Natural Gas Spot Prices Henry Hub, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per million btu 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Nov Oct Dec 2011 Natural Gas Futures Prices Henry Hub Dollars per million btu 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 12/07/2011 3.4 12/14/2011 3.2 3.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures March 1973=100 January 1987=100 105 85 Broad Index (right scale) 81 101 77 97 73 93 Major Index (left scale) 69 89 65 85 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Exchange Rates Averages of Daily Figures Euro/US$ Yen/US$ 0.80 91 Euro (left scale) 0.75 87 0.70 83 Japan (right scale) 0.65 79 0.60 75 Oct Nov Dec 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1000 980 960 940 920 900 Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1200 6500 1100 6000 Savings (right scale) 1000 5500 Small Time (left scale) 900 5000 800 4500 700 4000 Oct Nov 2010 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Institutional and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 2100 1900 Institutional Money 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 Retail Money 700 500 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Total Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Oct Nov Dec 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2011 Note: Total borrowings include loans to depository institutions for primary, secondary, and seasonal credit, primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also contains asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc.,net, term asset-backed securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 9550 7000 9425 6875 Loans and Leases (right scale) 9300 6750 9175 6625 Bank Credit (left scale) 9050 6500 Nov Oct Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1325 725 1300 700 1275 675 All Banks (left scale) 1250 650 Large Banks (right scale) 1225 625 1200 600 Oct Nov 2010 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Commercial Paper Outstanding of Nonfinancial Companies Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2010 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011 Commercial Paper Outstanding: Financial and Asset-Backed Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 700 600 Financial 500 400 Asset-Backed 300 Oct Nov Dec 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2011 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 12/15/11 U.S. Financial Data Interest Rates Percent 30-Day Comm. Paper 90-Day CDs Sep 23 0.09 0.34 0.49 3.98 5.18 30 0.07 0.35 0.54 4.06 5.31 Oct Nov Dec Federal Funds 3-Month Treasury Bill 2-Year Treasury Securities 5-Year Treasury Securities 10-Year Treasury Securities 30-Year Treasury Securities 3.85 0.09 0.01 0.20 0.85 1.87 3.02 3.93 0.08 0.02 0.26 0.96 1.97 3.02 2-Year Corporate Corporate Municipal Interest Rate Swap Aaa Bonds Baa Bonds Bonds 7 0.08 0.36 0.63 3.91 5.26 4.14 0.07 0.01 0.27 0.96 1.93 2.88 14 0.09 0.37 0.67 4.10 5.52 4.17 0.07 0.02 0.30 1.14 2.22 3.17 21 0.09 0.37 0.64 3.98 5.41 4.08 0.07 0.03 0.28 1.07 2.20 3.18 28 0.08 0.37 0.63 3.97 5.36 4.12 0.07 0.02 0.29 1.11 2.28 3.29 4 0.11 0.37 0.58 3.84 5.11 4.02 0.08 0.01 0.23 0.91 2.07 3.07 11 0.11 0.39 0.62 3.88 5.12 4.02 0.08 0.01 0.25 0.90 2.05 3.08 18 0.10 0.43 0.74 3.89 5.16 4.09 0.08 0.01 0.26 0.91 2.02 3.04 25 0.10 0.45 0.80 3.81 5.11 4.07 0.08 0.02 0.27 0.91 1.94 2.90 2 0.11 0.45 0.72 4.00 5.28 4.12 0.08 0.02 0.26 0.94 2.04 3.02 9 0.09 0.49 0.67 4.02 5.30 3.93 0.08 0.01 0.24 0.90 2.04 3.05 16 * 0.14 0.50 0.69 3.96 5.24 . 0.07 0.01 0.24 0.86 1.97 2.98 *Averages of rates available Money Stock and Components Reserves and Base Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Oct Nov Dec Small Time Savings Retail Money 5964.5 722.2 Institutional Money M2 MZM Currency 9592.2 10528 985.6 31 9602.0 10549 986.8 777.1 5954.6 7 9650.0 10588 986.9 773.2 6003.7 14 9654.2 10603 989.9 770.2 6024.2 715.0 1718.8 24 780.2 1715.9 Sep 21 718.1 1724.2 Oct 717.9 1710.8 Nov Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves 2684.606 1703.67 5 2656.666 1665.91 19 2698.808 1700.77 2 2637.240 1660.07 21 9618.2 10571 993.1 766.2 6005.6 711.4 1719.1 16 2652.074 1664.38 28 9620.8 10572 994.2 764.4 6000.7 706.3 1715.7 30 2581.173 1609.41 5 9639.9 10601 994.9 762.1 6024.2 705.7 1722.9 Dec 14 2631.467 Bank Loans and Credit . Exchange Rates Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Nov Dec Major Exchange Broad Exchange Exchange Rate: Euro/$ Rate Index Rate Index Exchange Rate: Yen/$ Bank Credit Loans and Leases C&I Loans (All) C&I Loans (Large) Comm. Paper (sa) Total Borrowings 2 9403.0 6913.9 1320.0 686.4 195.6 10.894 Oct 28 70.4 97.7 0.714 75.9 9 9384.7 6918.4 1319.6 687.9 196.4 10.619 Nov 4 71.4 98.5 0.725 78.1 16 9404.8 6924.1 1319.8 688.2 198.7 10.520 11 71.7 98.8 0.731 77.8 23 9421.6 6910.9 1315.0 688.3 204.1 10.228 18 72.1 99.4 0.739 77.0 30 9436.8 6933.3 1315.1 687.9 199.1 9.809 25 73.1 100.8 0.746 77.3 2 72.7 100.0 0.746 77.8 9 72.5 99.6 0.747 77.7 7 . . . . 201.3 9.700 14 . . . . 199.6 9.981 Dec Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. Financial Data Definitions M1: The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float. M2: M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts. M3: M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits; repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all banking offices in Canada and the United Kingdom; and institutional money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000 or more). Notes Cover Page: Economic forecasts are median responses from the Thomson Reuters Weekly Economic Survey, which is sent out to 20 to 25 Wall Street economists each week (usually on Tuesday). These forecasts are released on Friday—at which time, Thursday’s USFD cover page will be updated. Page 3: Adjusted Monetary Base equals the sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 1996b, 2001, 2003). Page 4: Adjusted Reserves is defined as the sum of vault cash and Federal Reserve Bank deposits held by depository institutions and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series, a spliced chain index, is numerically larger than the Board of Governors’ measure, which excludes vault cash not used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements and Federal Reserve Bank deposits used to satisfy required clearing balance contracts; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 2001, 2003). Page 5: MZM includes the zero maturity, or immediately available, components of M3. MZM equals M2 minus small-denomination time deposits, plus institutional money market mutual funds (that is, the money market mutual funds included in M3 but excluded from M2). The label MZM, or “Money, Zero Maturity,” was coined by William Poole (1991) for this aggregate, proposed earlier by Motley (1988). Readers are cautioned that since early 1994 the level and growth of M1 have been depressed by retail sweep programs that reclassify transactions deposits (demand deposits and other checkable deposits) as savings deposits overnight, thereby reducing banks’ required reserves; see Anderson and Rasche (2001) and research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/swdata.html. Page 7: The asset groups are aggregates of the following categories on the H.4.1: Short-term lending to financial firms and markets is the sum of repurchase agreements, term auction credit, commercial paper funding facility, central bank liquidity swaps, money market investor funding facility, other loans (less AIG loan), and other assets. Rescue operations is the sum of credit extended to AIG, and net Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis portfolio holdings of Maiden Lanes I, II, III, and preferred interests in AIA Aurora and ALICO Holdings. Operations focused on long term credit conditions is the sum of Federal Reserve agency obligations held outright, mortgage backed securities, the term asset-backed securities loan facility (TALF), and the TALF LLC. Traditional portfolio is the sum of treasury securities, gold certificate account, special drawing rights, coin, items in process of collection, and bank premises. On the liability side, Source base is the sum of deposits of depository institutions and Federal Reserve notes. Treasury financing account appears on the H.4.1. Traditional liabilities and capital account is the sum of deferred availability cash items, foreign official account deposits, U.S. Treasury general account, accrued dividends, reverse repurchase agreements, other deposits, and capital accounts. H.4.1 data are not seasonally adjusted. Page 8: Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities include nominal securities, inflation-indexed securities, and the compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of inflation-indexed securities (inflation compensation). Term Deposits Held by Depository Institutions are interest-bearing deposits with a specific maturity date offered by the Federal Reserve Banks. For more information on the Term Deposit Facility, see http://www.frbservices.org/centralbank/term_deposit_facility.html. Page 9: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.4.1 release. For more information on these programs, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/recentactions.htm. Page 10: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the Intended Federal Funds Rate. Federal Funds Rate represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the release. Page 11: Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury security, Aaa- and Baarated corporate bonds, and the interest rate on 3-year conforming mortgages appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release. The interest rates on jumbo mortgages (typically, mortgages in excess of $417,000) are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Page 12: Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yields are the most recently issued inflation-indexed bonds of 5- ,10- , and 30-year original maturities. Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spreads equal the difference between yields on the most recently issued inflation-indexed bonds and the unadjusted Treasury Note Yields of similar maturities. Page 13: Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts trace through time the yield on three specific contracts. Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates displays a single day’s snapshot of yields for contracts expiring in the months shown on the horizontal axis. Page 15: Crude Oil (West Texas intermediate) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 16: Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 17: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 release. The Major Index comprises 7 currencies. The Broad Index comprises the Major Index plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Page 18: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Savings Deposits is the sum of money market deposit accounts and passbook and statement savings. Small Time Deposits have a minimum initial maturity of 7 days. Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. 23 U.S. Financial Data Page 19: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 and H.4.1 releases. Retail Money Funds are included in M2. Institutional Money Funds are not part of M2; they used to be included in M3, which was discontinued as of March 23, 2006. See www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted monetary base, adjusted reserves, and MZM. Total Borrowings include loans to depository institutions for (i) primary, secondary, and seasonal credit and (ii) primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also includes the assetbacked commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc., term assetbacked securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Data and recent information regarding Federal Reserve lending programs appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 release at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Standard & Poor’s Standard & Poor’s 500 composite index. Page 20: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. Bank Loans and Credit include foreign-related institutions. Bank Credit includes loans and leases and securities. All Banks includes foreign-related institutions. Large Banks are domestically chartered banks (adjusted for mergers) and report on a weekly basis. Page 21: Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/outstandings.htm. Page 22: Treasury Security yields are Treasury constant maturities as reported in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s H.15 release. The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the secondary market yield from the H.15 release. Federal Funds represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the table. Municipal Bonds represents Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Sources Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Monetary aggregates and components: H.6 release. Bank credit: H.8 release. Total Borrowings and Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items: H.4.1 release. Interest rates: H.15 release. Exchange rates: H.10 release. Commercial paper: Board of Governors web site. Chicago Board of Trade Federal funds futures contract. Dow Jones Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average. 24 NASDAQ Stock Market, Incorporated NASDAQ Composite®. U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. inflation-indexed security yields. Wall Street Journal Jumbo mortgage interest rates, oil (West Texas intermediate) and natural gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices. Wilshire Associates Incorporated (www.wilshire.com) Wilshire 5000 ®. References Anderson, Richard G. and Robert H. Rasche (1996a). “A Revised Measure of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 78(2), pp. 3-13. ____ and ____(1996b). “Measuring the Adjusted Monetary Base in an Era of Financial Change,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/ December, 78(6), pp. 3-37. ____ and ____(2001). “Retail Sweep Programs and Bank Reserves, 1994-1999,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February, pp. 51-72. ____ and ____ , with Jeffrey Loesel (2003). “A Reconstruction of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and Reserves,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October, 85(5), pp. 39-70. Motley, Brian (1988). “Should M2 Be Redefined?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Winter, pp. 33-51. Poole, William (1991). Statement before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, November 6, 1991. Government Printing Office, Serial No. 102-82. Note: Articles from this Bank’s Review are available on the Internet at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis