Full text of U.S. Financial Data : December 10, 1998
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IDT? PfcfcklBRARY federal a reserve XlJVNKol «r ST. LOUIS TW WEEK'S HIGHLIGHTS: ■ Yields on three-month Treasury bills averaged 4.36 percent for the week ending Dec. 11, an increase of 52 basis points from eight weeks earlier. Over the same period, the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds fell 1 basis point to an average of 5.01 percent (See Page 7). ■ Nonfarm payroll employment increased 267,000 in November, following gains of 145,000 in October and 172,000 in September. Year-to-date, monthly employment gains have averaged 226,000, compared with an average increase of about 277,000 over the first 11 months of 1997. The civilian unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points in November to 4.4 percent. ■ The current dollar value of total factory orders fell 1.6 percent in October. Likewise, the value offactory shipments dropped 0.1 percent in October, while the value of unfilled orders fell 0.9 percent. The latter was the largest drop since September 1993. Beginning with this issue, two new Federal Reserve measures of the U.S. dollar’s foreign exchange value will be published: The major currency index (MCI) and the broad index (BI). Until Jan. 1, 1999, when stage III of EMU will begin, the MCI will be comprised of 16 currencies; the BI includes the MCI plus 19 additional currencies. After Jan. 1, the euro will replace the 10 euro-area currencies, so that the MCI will become a seven-currency index and the BI will have 26 currencies. For more information, see “New Summary Measures of the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar, ” Federal Reserve Bulletin (October 1998). All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise indicated. U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8590. To be added to the mailing list, please call (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server atwww.stls.ffb.org/fred. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Billions 516.696 519.791 520.499 523.748 523.753 526.071 520- —...-500 5 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 4 1 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 Apr 22 5 19 16 30 14 28 11 25 9 23 May 1997 1998 The adjusted monetary base is the sum of Federal Reserve deposits and vault cash held by domestic depository institutions, currency held by the public, and an adjustment for the effect of changes in reserve requirement ratios. The monetary base series was recently revised to include Federal Reserve deposits used to satisfy clearing balance contracts. Data are computed by this bank. A detailed description of the adjusted monetary base is available from this bank. Recent data are preliminary. Adjusted Monetary Base Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: two maintenance periods ending: 12/3/97 2/25/98 5/6/98 6/3/98 7/1/98 7/29/98 8/26/98 5/6/98 3.8 6/3/98 5.3 4.0 7/1 /98 4.3 2.5 7/29/98 4.8 3.7 6.8 3.1 B/26/98 5.5 4.9 8.0 6.0 10.5 10/7/98 6.3 6.1 9.0 7.8 10.9 11.7 11/4/98 6.7 6.6 9.2 8.2 10.8 11.3 11.0 12/2/98 6.7 6.6 8.9 8.1 10.1 10.3 9.9 10/7/98 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5.6 8.7 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Billions 3886.3 3890.2 3897.6 3914.0 3915.2 3929.8 Oct 26 Nov 2 6 20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 23 9 23 20 15 29 13 27 10 24 4 7 21 2 5 16 30 14 28 1998 MZM is M2 (seasonally adjusted) minus total small denomination time deposits (seasonally adjusted), plus institutional money funds (seasonally adjusted), which are included in the non-M2 component of M3. Money Zero Maturity (MZM) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 12/1/97 3/2/98 4/27/98 6/1/98 6/29/98 7/27/98 8/31/98 4/27/98 14.2 6/1/98 13.0 13.6 6/29/98 12.6 12.9 9.1 7/27/98 11.8 11.5 8.1 8.2 8/31/98 12.0 11.9 9.5 10.2 10.0 9/28/98 13.1 13.5 12.1 13.4 14.3 18.3 11/2/98 14.1 14.8 14.1 15.5 16.7 20.0 23.8 11/30/98 14.4 15.1 14.5 15.8 16.8 19.4 21.8 9/28/98 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 20.6 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 4 Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Billions Sep 23 Nov 4 Dec 2 66.931 68.096 66.688 68.251 66.562 68.016 5 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 4 13 27 10 24 22 5 19 16 30 14 28 11 25 9 23 1997 Adjusted reserves is the difference between the adjusted monetary base and the currency component of M1. The adjusted monetary base series was recently revised: See the footnote to the monetary base chart for a description of the change. Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annua I rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 12/3/97 2/25/98 5/6/98 6/3/98 7/1/98 7/29/98 8/26/98 5/6/98 -10.5 6/3/98 -3.3 7/1/9B -7.9 -8.9 -0.2 7/29/98 -6.9 -7.2 0.1 -17.8 8/26/98 -3.7 -2.4 6.5 -4.6 13.7 10/7/9B -2.6 -1.2 5.9 -1.7 9.6 13.4 11/4/98 -2.5 -1.2 4.9 -1.6 7.2 9.1 2.2 12/2/98 -2.6 -1.4 3.7 -1.9 5.2 6.2 0.6 10/7/98 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -0.5 -2.1 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Money Stock(M1) and Total Checkable Deposits Averages of Daily Figures 1165 Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Millions Oct 26 1998 Oct 26 Nov 2 9 16 23 30 085.9 1091.0 1081.7 1083.0 1086.3 1097.5 Billions 623.5 627.9 618.0 618.8 621.2 631.6 M1 (left scale) TCD (right scale) 985 6 20 3 Oct 17 1 Nov 15 29 12 26 Dec Jan 9 23 Feb 9 23 18 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 Mar 1997 1998 M1 is the sum of currency held by the nonbank public, total checkable deposits and travelers checks. Total checkable deposits is the sum of demand deposits and other checkable deposits at depository institutions. Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Com oounded annual rates of c Tange, average of the our weeks ending Nove mber 30, 1998, from the Dec Mar J u Jun J u Au c Sep 1, 2 , 1, 29, 199" 1 9 9£ 1998 1998 3 1 , 28 , 8 8 9 1 0 1 0 1 2 9 1 998 1 99£ . . . . . . . 2 0 9 3 7 1 8 1998 Bi lions Oct 2 Nov 4 54.4 4 55.1 455.7' 456.3 457.1 457.9 9 16 23 30 17 Nov 1 15 29 Dec 12 26 Jan 23 Feb 9 23 6 Mar 20 Apr 4 18 May 1 15 29 Jun 13 27 10 24 Jul Aug 5 19 Oct 2 16 30 Nov 1 4 28 Dec 1998 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.6 release. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 6 Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent Percent Prime Rate Corporate Aaa Bonds Commercial Paper ....- 5.0 Municipal Bonds 14 28 1998 Sep Oct Nov Dec 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 15 29 12 26 12 26 10 24 4 11 18 30—Day Commercial Paper 90—Day CDs 90—Day Bankers' Acceptances Corporate Aaa Bonds Corporate Baa Bonds 5.49 5.45 5.23 5.25 5.22 5.03 5.05 5.11 5.11 4.95 4.84 5.09 5.14 5.42 5.37 5.22 5.29 5.26 5.14 5.16 5.27 5.31 5.21 5.18 5.20 5.13 5.38 5.34 5.19 5.20 5.17 5.03 5.07 5.13 5.20 5.18 5.10 5.13 5.08 6.42 6.37 6.25 6.25 6.45 6.47 6.44 6.56 6.44 6.39 6.28 6.18 6.20 7.10 7.07 7.01 7.05 7.25 7.28 7.26 7.42 7.34 7.33 7.28 7.19 7.21 Municipal Bonds ** 4.97 4.94 4.82 4.88 4.96 4.99 5.00 5.04 5.04 5.03 5.01 4.96 N.A. Current data are from the Federal Reserve Board's H.15 release, and are averages of rates available for the week ending on December 11, 1998 . Beginning September 2, 1997, the commercial paper rate reflects new source data, which is currently available only back to the first of the year. ** Bond Buyer's Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 25 Selected Interest Rates Averages of Daily Figures Percent Percent 30-Year Treasury Securities Federal Funds Rate ..- 5.0 Discount Rate - 4.0 3-Month Treasury Bill 31 14 28 1998 Sep Oct Nov Dec 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 * 12 26 Federal Funds ** 5.54 5.42 5.58 5.22 5.14 4.87 4.95 5.22 4.80 4.89 4.54 4.86 4.68 11 3—Month Treasury Bill 1 —Year Treasury Bill 5—Year Treasury Securities 10—Year Treasury Securities 30-Year Treasury Securities 4.62 4.53 4.26 3.96 3.84 3.85 4.12 4.43 4.42 4.35 4.47 4.38 4.36 4.54 4.40 4.22 4.01 3.96 3.84 3.93 4.27 4.34 4.33 4.38 4.26 4.33 4.62 4.48 4.24 4.18 4.22 4.17 4.22 4.45 4.51 4.59 4.62 4.39 4.41 4.83 4.67 4.46 4.41 4.58 4.59 4.63 4.83 4.82 4.85 4.83 4.64 4.62 5.21 5.14 5.00 4.88 5.02 5.08 5.12 5.29 5.27 5.26 5.21 5.05 5.01 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release. * Averages of rates available ** Seven-day averages for week ending two days earlier than date shown http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 25 8 Money Stock(M2) and Non-M1 Components of M2 Averages of Daily Figures Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 1998 Oct 26 Nov 2 Billions 4358.0 4360.3 4372.7 4379.6 4376.2 - 3275 M2 (left scale) Non-M1 M2 (right scale) Non—M1 M2 [8 Oct Billions 26 3272.1 3291.0 3296.6 3292.4 3278.7 6 20 3 17 15 29 12 26 9 23 9 23 6 20 4 1 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 1998 1997 M2 is the sum of M1, savings (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits and retail money funds. Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.6 release. Money Stock (M2) Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: To the average of four weeks ending: 12/1/97 3/2/98 4/27/98 6/1/98 6/29/98 7/27/98 8/31/98 4/27/98 9.1 6/1/98 7.7 6.9 6/29/9B 7.4 6.6 3.6 7/27/98 7.3 6.5 4.3 5.9 8/31/98 7.3 6.7 5.2 6.4 9/28/98 8.1 8.0 7.2 8.8 9.8 11.5 11/2/98 8.6 8.7 8.3 9.7 10.6 12.0 14.7 11/30/98 8.7 8.8 8.5 9.8 10.6 11.6 13.3 9/28/98 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6.7 11.7 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures beasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Small Time 1998 Oct 26 1075- Nov Billions 963.3 962.5 962.4 961.9 961.3 Savings Deposits fright scale) Small Time (left scale) Savings Billions Oct 26 1556.9 1576.5 1583.7 1581.4 1567.6 9 23 20 4 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 19 2 16 30 14 28 1997 1998 Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. Large Time Deposits and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures Billions of Dollars beasonally Adjusted of Dollars Large http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Retail Money Billions Retail Money Large Time 20 4 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 5 1 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 10 Total Borrowings From Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Billions Nov Dec 0.102 4 0.059 0.105 0.107 0.050 0.014 2 -1.0 0.4- 1 15 29 12 26 10 24 7 21 4 18 4 15 29 13 27 10 24 1 1997 22 5 1 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 9 23 1998 Borrowings include seasonal, adjustment and extended credit. Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States Billions 4503.0 4519.1 4517.7 4521.5 4521.2 4539.8 1998 Oct 21 1// Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 3600 3500 Bank Credit (left scale)2/ 3400 3300 3200 Loans & Leases 1998 Loans and Leases (right scale) 15 29 13 27 10 24 15 29 12 26 10 24 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1997 Jun Billions 3274.4 3287.5 3292.6 3301.3 3299.4 3308.0 28 4 11 18 25 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1998 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.8 release. 1/ Includes foreign—related institutions 2/ Includes loans and leases and securities http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3000 2900 16 30 14 28 11 25 Jul 3100 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies Not Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars Billions 245- Oct 28 Nov 4 235- Dec 232.1 234.3 232.2 235.0 233.4 230.0 2 - 235 - 225 - 205 29 13 27 10 24 14 28 11 25 1997 Note: Beginning September 2, 1997, the value of commercial paper outstanding uses new source data. See the Federal Reserve Board's H.15 release for more information. Commercial and Industrial Loans Billions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted Bii ions of Pollers All Banks Billions 946.8 949.5 948.6 950.6 951.4 953.1 i Large Banks (right scol Large Banks 98 Billions All Bonks (left scole) V 855- 5 29 2 26 10 24 15 29 Apr T"1 1*6 30 14 28'1'1 13 27 10 24 May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov 1998 Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.8 release. 1/ Includes foreign-related institutions 2/ Weekly reporting, domestically chartered banks http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures January 1 997-1 00 .. March 1973=100 Nov Nov 4 4 Dec 2 - 125 115-Dec 2 Broad Index (Right Scale) - 120 Major Currency Index (Left Scale) 1997 1998 At present, the mojor currency index (MCI) is comprised of 16 currencies. The brood index is comprised of the mojor currency index plus19 additional currencies. After Jan. t, 1999, when Stage III of EMU begins, the euro will replace the 10 euro-areo currencies in the MCI. See the October 1998 issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin for further details. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis <L id * CTT —1