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USFinancialData August 1, 2013 Advance Edition Calendar of Releases Titles for the current week are links to their respective releases. MONDAY* July 29 TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY* FRIDAY July 30 July 31 August 1 August 2 A: 0.5% ECI (Q2) PF: 0.4% Initial Claims (7/27) A: 326K PF: 345K Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) A: N/A PF: 185K A: 1.7% GDP (Q2) PF: 1.0% Construct Spending (Jun) A: -0.6% PF: 0.4% Unemployment Rate (Jul) A: N/A PF: 7.5% ISM Index (Jul) PF: 52.0 A: 55.4 Core PCE (Jun) A: N/A PF: 0.1% FOMC Meeting Statement Factory Orders (Jun) PF: 2.2% Internat'l Economic Trends A: N/A Latest Issue National Economic Trends August 5 August 6 August 7 ISM Non Mfg Index (Jul) CF: N/A PF: 53.0 International Trade (Jun) CF: N/A PF: -$44.1B Consumer Credit (Jun) CF: N/A PF: $15.0B August 8 August 9 Initial Claims (8/3) CF: N/A PF: N/A Latest Issue Monetary Trends Latest Issue National Economic Trends August 12 Treasury Budget (Jul) CF: N/A August 13 August 14 August 15 August 16 Import Prices (Jul) CF: N/A CF: N/A Initial Claims (8/10) CF: N/A Retail Sales (Jul) CF: N/A Core PPI (Jul) CF: N/A CF: N/A Unit Labor Cost (Q2) CF: N/A CPI Core (Jul) CF: N/A Housing Starts (Jul) CF: N/A Industrial Production (Jul) CF: N/A Building Permits (Jul) CF: N/A PPI (Jul) Business Inventories (Jun) CF: N/A CPI (Jul) Productivity (Q2) CF: N/A Capacity Utilization (Jul) CF: N/A DEFINITIONS: A, actual value; PF, previous week’s forecast; CF, current week’s forecast; K, thousand; M, million; B, billion. *The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System provides H.3, H.4.1, and H.6 releases each Thursday and H.10 and H.15 releases each Monday. Forecast data are from Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 20. All Rights Reserved. Use, duplication, or sale of this service or the data contained herein, except as described in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Subscription Agreement, is strictly prohibited. research.stlouisfed.org Contents Page 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves MZM M2 Composition of Federal Reserve Assets and Liabilities Reserve Bank Credit and Selected Categories Other Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items Yields on Selected Securities Corporate Bond Spreads and Mortgage Interest Rates Yields on Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Treasury Securities Federal Funds Futures Market Equity Price Indices Crude Oil Prices Natural Gas Prices Exchange Rates Currency, Savings, and Small Time Deposits Institutional and Retail Money Funds, and Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Bank Loans Commercial Paper Outstanding Reference Tables Notes Conventions used in this publication: 1. Unless otherwise indicated, figure and table data are weekly and seasonally adjusted. 2. For pages 10, 14, 15 (top chart), 16 (top chart), and 22 (top table), the last observation is a daily average that incorporates all available data at the time of publication, which usually includes observations for the first three trading days of the week (Monday through Wednesday). The previous observations signify that week’s average. We welcome your comments addressed to: Editor, U.S. Financial Data Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or to: stlsFRED@stls.frb.org U.S. Financial Data is published weekly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data in this publication, please visit research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 or call (314) 444-8590. To be added to our free email notification list, please visit our web site at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd. updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Monetary Base Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Adjusted Monetary Base To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 07/25/12 10/17/12 12/26/12 01/23/13 02/20/13 03/20/13 05/01/13 12/26/12 -1.9 01/23/13 5.9 02/20/13 12.1 27.9 61.7 03/20/13 16.1 31.9 58.2 56.3 05/01/13 18.6 32.4 49.7 46.4 40.8 05/29/13 21.0 34.1 49.2 46.5 42.5 39.0 06/26/13 22.3 34.6 47.5 45.0 41.5 38.8 42.5 07/24/13 23.5 34.9 46.2 43.9 40.9 38.7 41.0 05/29/13 19.7 38.3 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 3 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Adjusted Reserves Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Adjusted Reserves To the average of two maintenance periods ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of two maintenance periods ending: 07/25/12 10/17/12 12/26/12 01/23/13 02/20/13 03/20/13 05/01/13 12/26/12 -3.1 01/23/13 5.9 28.9 02/20/13 13.5 38.3 75.2 03/20/13 23.7 52.5 93.6 104.7 05/01/13 26.8 51.0 76.0 76.9 76.8 05/29/13 31.7 55.7 79.0 80.4 81.3 63.0 06/26/13 33.5 55.7 75.2 75.5 75.2 60.8 73.2 07/24/13 33.9 53.9 69.8 69.3 67.9 55.5 60.8 05/29/13 46.7 Research Division 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data MZM Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 12100 12000 11900 11800 11700 11600 11500 11400 11300 11200 11100 11000 10900 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May Jun Jul Aug 2013 MZM To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 07/23/12 10/15/12 12/24/12 01/21/13 02/18/13 03/18/13 04/29/13 12/24/12 10.0 01/21/13 10.7 10.6 02/18/13 9.0 7.8 6.1 03/18/13 7.6 5.9 3.4 -1.7 04/29/13 7.8 6.6 5.2 2.7 4.4 05/27/13 7.3 6.0 4.6 2.6 3.8 6.2 06/24/13 7.2 6.1 4.9 3.3 4.4 6.3 4.5 07/22/13 7.6 6.7 5.9 4.7 5.8 7.6 7.0 05/27/13 9.4 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data M2 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 11000 10900 10800 10700 10600 10500 10400 10300 10200 10100 10000 9900 9800 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2012 May Jun Jul Aug 2013 M2 To the average of four weeks ending: Compounded annual rates of change, average of four weeks ending: 07/23/12 10/15/12 12/24/12 01/21/13 02/18/13 03/18/13 04/29/13 12/24/12 9.3 01/21/13 9.6 9.7 02/18/13 7.7 6.5 3.3 03/18/13 6.6 5.1 1.9 -2.5 04/29/13 6.9 5.9 4.1 2.1 4.6 05/27/13 6.6 5.5 3.9 2.3 4.2 6.4 06/24/13 6.4 5.4 4.0 2.7 4.3 5.8 3.8 07/22/13 6.8 6.1 5.0 4.1 5.7 7.2 6.5 05/27/13 8.3 Research Division 6 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Composition of Federal Reserve Assets End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 4000 Market Adjustment to Treasury and MBS Portfolio Short-Term Lending to Financial Firms and Markets 3500 Rescue Operations Operations Focused on Longer-Term Credit Conditions Traditional Portfolio 3000 Traditional Portfolio and Long-Term Assets 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Composition of Federal Reserve Liabilities End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of Dollars 3500 Source Base (not adjusted for reserve requirement changes) Treasury Financing Account 3000 Traditional Liabilities and Capital Account 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Reserve Bank Credit and Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 3600 3300 Reserve Bank Credit 3000 2700 2400 2100 U.S. Treasury Securities 1800 1500 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Term Deposits Held by Depository Institutions End of Period Wednesday Figures Billions of dollars 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2013 Research Division 8 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Federal Reserve Holdings of Agency Debt and Mortgage-Backed Securities Averages of Daily Figures Millions of Dollars 1400 1200 Mortgage-Backed Securities 1000 800 600 400 200 Purchases of Agency Debt 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Maturity Distribution of U.S. Treasury Securities Held by the Federal Reserve Billions of Dollars 900 800 700 600 500 1 Year or Less 5 to 10 Years 400 1 to 5 Years 300 Over 10 Years 200 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Yields on Selected Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 5 4 Corporate Aaa Prime Rate 3 2 1 2-Year Swap 30-Day Nonfinancial Commercial Paper 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Percent 4 3 10-Year Treasury 2 1 Federal Funds Rate FFR Target Range | || 3-Month Treasury || | | 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2013 Research Division 10 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Corporate Bond Yields Relative to Yields on 10 - Year Treasury Securities Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3.5 Baa - 10Y 3.0 2.5 Aaa - 10Y 2.0 1.5 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Interest Rates on 30 - Year Conforming and Jumbo Mortgages Averages of Daily Figures Percent 5.3 4.8 Jumbo 4.3 3.8 Conforming 3.3 2.8 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2013 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 11 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Treasury Note Yields Averages of Daily Figures Percent 4 30-Year 3 10-Year 2 5-Year 1 0 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug May Jun Jul Aug Jun Jul Aug 2013 Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yields Averages of Daily Figures Percent 2 1 30-Year 0 10-Year -1 5-Year -2 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2013 Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spreads Averages of Daily Figures Percent 3.0 30-Year 2.5 10-Year 2.0 5-Year 1.5 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Research Division 12 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts Daily Data Percent 0.30 0.25 0.20 Sep 2013 0.15 Jul 2013 | | | 0.10 Aug 2013 0.05 FFR Target Rate Range 0.00 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2013 Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates Percent 0.16 0.15 Week Ending: 06/05/13 07/03/13 07/31/13 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Contract Month Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Averages of Daily Figures Closing Price February 5, 1971 = 100 16000 3800 15000 3600 Dow Jones (left scale) 14000 3400 13000 3200 NASDAQ (right scale) 12000 3000 11000 2800 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Wilshire 5000 and Standard & Poor's 500 Averages of Daily Figures January 2, 1980 = 1078.29 1941-43 = 10 18000 1800 17000 1700 16000 1600 Wilshire** (left scale) 15000 1500 14000 1400 S&P* (right scale) 13000 1300 12000 1200 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug *Copyright 2011 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Standard & Poor's including its subsidiary corporations ("S&P") is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Reproduction of this data in any form is prohibited without S&P's prior written permission. **Source: Wilshire Associates Incorporated, www.wilshire.com Research Division 14 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Crude Oil Spot Prices West Texas Intermediate, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per barrel 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Crude Oil Futures Prices West Texas Intermediate Dollars per barrel 107 104 101 07/24/2013 07/31/2013 98 95 92 Sep Nov Oct 2013 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2014 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 15 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Natural Gas Spot Prices Henry Hub, Averages of Daily Figures Dollars per million btu 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Feb Jan Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Natural Gas Futures Prices Henry Hub Dollars per million btu 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 07/24/2013 3.6 3.5 07/31/2013 3.4 Sep Nov Oct 2013 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2014 Research Division 16 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Indexes Averages of Daily Figures March 1973=100 January 1987=100 85 105 Broad Index (right scale) 81 101 77 97 73 93 Major Index (left scale) 69 89 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Exchange Rates Averages of Daily Figures Euro/US$ Yen/US$ 0.90 105 0.85 99 Euro (left scale) 0.80 93 0.75 87 0.70 81 Japan (right scale) 0.65 75 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 17 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Currency Component of M1 Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1150 1125 1100 1075 1050 1025 1000 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Savings and Small Time Deposits Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1100 7500 1000 7000 900 6500 Savings (right scale) 800 6000 700 5500 Small Time (left scale) 600 5000 500 4500 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Research Division 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Institutional and Retail Money Funds Averages of Daily Figures, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 1900 1700 Institutional Money 1500 1300 1100 900 Retail Money 700 500 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Total Borrowings from Federal Reserve Banks Averages of Daily Figures Billions of dollars 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2013 Note: Total borrowings include loans to depository institutions for primary, secondary, and seasonal credit, primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also contains asset-backed commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc.,net, term asset-backed securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 19 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Bank Loans and Credit All Commercial Banks in the United States, Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 10200 7700 10100 7600 Bank Credit (left scale) 10000 7500 9900 7400 9800 7300 Loans and Leases (right scale) 9700 7200 9600 7100 9500 7000 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Commercial and Industrial Loans Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars Billions of dollars 1630 900 1590 875 Large Banks (right scale) 1550 850 All Banks (left scale) 1510 825 1470 800 1430 775 1390 750 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2013 Jun Jul Aug Research Division 20 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Commercial Paper Outstanding of Nonfinancial Companies Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug May Jun Jul Aug 2013 Commercial Paper Outstanding: Financial and Asset-Backed Seasonally Adjusted Billions of dollars 600 550 500 Financial 450 400 350 300 Asset-Backed 250 Jun Jul Aug Sep 2012 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2013 Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21 updated through 08/01/13 U.S. Financial Data Interest Rates Percent 30-Day Comm. Paper 90-Day CDs May 10 0.07 0.21 0.36 3.81 4.65 17 0.07 0.20 0.38 3.91 4.74 Jun Jul Aug Federal Funds 3-Month Treasury Bill 2-Year Treasury Securities 5-Year Treasury Securities 10-Year Treasury Securities 30-Year Treasury Securities 3.67 0.14 0.04 0.23 0.76 1.83 3.02 3.61 0.12 0.04 0.25 0.83 1.93 3.14 2-Year Corporate Corporate Municipal Interest Rate Swap Aaa Bonds Baa Bonds Bonds 24 0.06 0.20 0.39 3.95 4.78 3.70 0.10 0.04 0.26 0.88 1.99 3.18 31 0.06 0.20 0.46 4.06 4.90 3.84 0.09 0.05 0.30 1.03 2.14 3.29 7 0.06 0.19 0.46 4.10 4.99 3.93 0.09 0.05 0.31 1.04 2.12 3.28 14 0.06 0.18 0.48 4.24 5.11 4.16 0.09 0.05 0.32 1.11 2.20 3.33 21 0.06 0.19 0.46 4.33 5.23 4.37 0.10 0.05 0.31 1.22 2.33 3.43 28 0.08 0.20 0.55 4.41 5.42 4.63 0.10 0.06 0.39 1.44 2.55 3.56 5 0.07 . 0.53 4.33 5.36 4.39 0.09 0.04 0.36 1.45 2.56 3.53 12 0.06 . 0.52 4.37 5.41 4.55 0.10 0.04 0.37 1.48 2.64 3.65 19 0.05 . 0.49 4.31 5.29 4.52 0.09 0.03 0.33 1.35 2.54 3.59 26 0.05 . 0.49 4.34 5.25 4.77 0.09 0.03 0.32 1.36 2.57 3.61 0.05 . 0.49 4.38 5.30 . 0.09 0.04 0.32 1.38 2.61 3.66 2* *Averages of rates available Money Stock and Components Reserves and Base Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Jun Jul Currency Small Time Savings Retail Money 6868.7 641.5 Adjusted Monetary Base Adjusted Reserves 1 3034.021 1933.20 Institutional Money M2 MZM 10 10590 11769 17 10595 11779 1122 568.0 6880.3 652.0 1752.5 15 3105.519 1995.74 24 10573 11748 1126 564.9 6842.4 655.9 1739.5 29 3172.753 2041.29 1120 571.7 1750.7 1 10653 11837 1127 562.1 6889.0 665.3 1745.5 8 10645 11831 1128 559.3 6913.5 667.8 1745.5 15 10699 11894 1130 557.5 6937.7 666.7 1752.6 22 10716 11931 1132 555.7 6925.0 664.8 1771.2 May Jun Jul 12 3245.249 2122.98 26 3191.769 2053.22 10 3272.743 2114.50 24 3326.332 2167.84 Exchange Rates Bank Loans and Credit Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Jun Jul Bank Credit Loans and Leases C&I Loans (All) C&I Loans (Large) Comm. Paper (sa) Total Borrowings 19 10033.4 7297.7 1553.5 854.4 222.4 0.358 26 10033.8 7309.7 1561.4 858.1 231.4 0.367 3 10023.2 7313.4 1567.0 859.0 229.9 0.385 10 10001.3 7308.1 1560.8 854.6 214.9 0.360 17 10026.3 7326.7 1570.6 858.5 Major Exchange Exchange Broad Exchange Exchange Rate: Rate: Euro/$ Yen/$ Rate Index Rate Index Jun Jul 14 75.4 100.9 0.752 95.9 21 75.7 101.5 0.752 96.2 28 77.2 102.7 0.767 98.1 5 77.8 102.8 0.771 100.2 213.9 0.365 12 78.0 102.8 0.774 100.1 24 . . . . 214.4 0.361 19 77.2 102.0 0.763 100.0 31 . . . . 203.0 0.351 26 76.5 101.6 0.756 99.5 Research Division 22 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. Financial Data Definitions M1: The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float. M2: M1 plus savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts) and small-denomination (less than $100,000) time deposits issued by financial institutions; and shares in retail money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of less than $50,000), net of retirement accounts. M3: M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits; repurchase agreements issued by depository institutions; Eurodollar deposits, specifically, dollar-denominated deposits due to nonbank U.S. addresses held at foreign offices of U.S. banks worldwide and all banking offices in Canada and the United Kingdom; and institutional money market mutual funds (funds with initial investments of $50,000 or more). Notes Cover Page: Economic forecasts are median responses from the Thomson Reuters Weekly Economic Survey, which is sent out to 20 to 25 Wall Street economists each week (usually on Tuesday). These forecasts are released on Friday—at which time, Thursday’s USFD cover page will be updated. Page 3: Adjusted Monetary Base equals the sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 1996b, 2001, 2003). Page 4: Adjusted Reserves is defined as the sum of vault cash and Federal Reserve Bank deposits held by depository institutions and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series, a spliced chain index, is numerically larger than the Board of Governors’ measure, which excludes vault cash not used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements and Federal Reserve Bank deposits used to satisfy required clearing balance contracts; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a, 2001, 2003). Page 5: MZM includes the zero maturity, or immediately available, components of M3. MZM equals M2 minus small-denomination time deposits, plus institutional money market mutual funds (that is, the money market mutual funds included in M3 but excluded from M2). The label MZM, or “Money, Zero Maturity,” was coined by William Poole (1991) for this aggregate, proposed earlier by Motley (1988). Readers are cautioned that since early 1994 the level and growth of M1 have been depressed by retail sweep programs that reclassify transactions deposits (demand deposits and other checkable deposits) as savings deposits overnight, thereby reducing banks’ required reserves; see Anderson and Rasche (2001) and research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/swdata.html. Page 7: The asset groups are aggregates of the following categories on the H.4.1: Short-term lending to financial firms and markets is the sum of repurchase agreements, term auction credit, commercial paper funding facility, central bank liquidity swaps, money market investor funding facility, other loans (less AIG loan), and other assets. Rescue operations is the sum of credit extended to AIG, and net Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis portfolio holdings of Maiden Lanes I, II, III, and preferred interests in AIA Aurora and ALICO Holdings. Operations focused on long term credit conditions is the sum of Federal Reserve agency obligations held outright, mortgage backed securities, the term asset-backed securities loan facility (TALF), and the TALF LLC. Traditional portfolio is the sum of treasury securities, gold certificate account, special drawing rights, coin, items in process of collection, and bank premises. On the liability side, Source base is the sum of deposits of depository institutions and Federal Reserve notes. Treasury financing account appears on the H.4.1. Traditional liabilities and capital account is the sum of deferred availability cash items, foreign official account deposits, U.S. Treasury general account, accrued dividends, reverse repurchase agreements, other deposits, and capital accounts. H.4.1 data are not seasonally adjusted. Page 8: Federal Reserve Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities include nominal securities, inflation-indexed securities, and the compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of inflation-indexed securities (inflation compensation). Term Deposits Held by Depository Institutions are interest-bearing deposits with a specific maturity date offered by the Federal Reserve Banks. For more information on the Term Deposit Facility, see http://www.frbservices.org/centralbank/term_deposit_facility.html. Page 9: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.4.1 release. For more information, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/recentactions.htm. Page 10: Current data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release, except for the Intended Federal Funds Rate. Federal Funds Rate represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the release. Page 11: Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury security, Aaa- and Baarated corporate bonds, and the interest rate on 3-year conforming mortgages appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.15 release. The interest rates on jumbo mortgages (typically, mortgages in excess of $417,000) are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Page 12: Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yields are the most recently issued inflation-indexed bonds of 5- ,10- , and 30-year original maturities. Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yield Spreads equal the difference between yields on the most recently issued inflation-indexed bonds and the unadjusted Treasury Note Yields of similar maturities. Page 13: Rates on Federal Funds Futures Contracts trace through time the yield on three specific contracts. Rates on Federal Funds Futures on Selected Dates displays a single day’s snapshot of yields for contracts expiring in the months shown on the horizontal axis. Page 15: Crude Oil (West Texas intermediate) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 16: Natural Gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices are listed in the Wall Street Journal. Spot Prices are weekly averages of daily prices; Futures Prices are usually taken on Wednesday. Page 17: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 release. The Major Index comprises 7 currencies. The Broad Index comprises the Major Index plus 19 additional currencies. Further details may be found at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/summary/. Page 18: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 release. Savings Deposits is the sum of money market deposit accounts and passbook and statement savings. Small Time Deposits have a minimum initial maturity of 7 days. Savings deposits and small time deposits are at all depository institutions. 23 U.S. Financial Data Page 19: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.6 and H.4.1 releases. Retail Money Funds are included in M2. Institutional Money Funds are not part of M2; they used to be included in M3, which was discontinued as of March 23, 2006. See www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted monetary base, adjusted reserves, and MZM. Total Borrowings include loans to depository institutions for (i) primary, secondary, and seasonal credit and (ii) primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit. This category also includes the assetbacked commercial paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility, credit extended to American International Group, Inc., term assetbacked securities loan facility, and other credit extensions. Term auction credit is excluded. Data and recent information regarding Federal Reserve lending programs appear in the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 release at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Standard & Poor’s Standard & Poor’s 500 composite index. Page 20: Data appear in the Federal Reserve Board’s H.8 release. Bank Loans and Credit include foreign-related institutions. Bank Credit includes loans and leases and securities. All Banks includes foreign-related institutions. Large Banks are domestically chartered banks (adjusted for mergers) and report on a weekly basis. Page 21: Current data appear at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/cp/outstandings.htm. Page 22: Treasury Security yields are Treasury constant maturities as reported in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s H.15 release. The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield is the secondary market yield from the H.15 release. Federal Funds represents seven-day averages for the week ending two days earlier than the date shown in the table. Municipal Bonds represents Bond Buyer’s Average Index of 20 municipal bonds, Thursday data. Sources Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Monetary aggregates and components: H.6 release. Bank credit: H.8 release. Total Borrowings and Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Items: H.4.1 release. Interest rates: H.15 release. Exchange rates: H.10 release. Commercial paper: Board of Governors web site. Chicago Board of Trade Federal funds futures contract. Dow Jones Indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average. 24 NASDAQ Stock Market, Incorporated NASDAQ Composite. U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. inflation-indexed security yields. Wall Street Journal Jumbo mortgage interest rates, oil (West Texas intermediate) and natural gas (Henry Hub) spot and futures prices. Wilshire Associates Incorporated (www.wilshire.com) Wilshire 5000 . References Anderson, Richard G. and Robert H. Rasche (1996a). “A Revised Measure of the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, 78(2), pp. 3-13. ____ and ____(1996b). “Measuring the Adjusted Monetary Base in an Era of Financial Change,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/ December, 78(6), pp. 3-37. ____ and ____(2001). “Retail Sweep Programs and Bank Reserves, 1994-1999,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February, pp. 51-72. ____ and ____ , with Jeffrey Loesel (2003). “A Reconstruction of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base and Reserves,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October, 85(5), pp. 39-70. Motley, Brian (1988). “Should M2 Be Redefined?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, Winter, pp. 33-51. Poole, William (1991). Statement before the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, November 6, 1991. Government Printing Office, Serial No. 102-82. Note: Articles from this Bank’s Review are available on the Internet at research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/. Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis