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Congressional Oversight Panel: Congressional Oversight Panel Analyzes Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability

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Home > Press > Congressional Oversight Panel Analyzes Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability

Congressional Oversight Panel Analyzes Commercial Real Estate
Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability
February 11, 2010
For Immediate Release

Wave of Refinancing Could Overwhelm an Already Weakened
Financial System Community Banks at Greatest Risk
WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Congressional Oversight Panel today released its February
oversight report, "Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability." The
Panel is deeply concerned that a wave of commercial real estate loan losses over the next
four years could jeopardize the stability of many banks, particularly community banks, and
prolong an already painful recession.
Commercial real estate (CRE) loans made over the last decade - including retail properties,
office space, industrial facilities, hotels and apartments - totaling $1.4 trillion will require
refinancing in 2011 through 2014. Nearly half are at present "underwater," meaning the
borrower owes more on the loan than the underlying property is worth. While these
problems have no single cause, the loans most likely to fail are those made at the height of
the real estate bubble. The Panel notes, however, "Even borrowers who own profitable
properties may be unable to refinance their loans as they face tightened underwriting
standards, increased demands for additional investment by borrowers, and restricted
credit."
Community banks, unlike the largest Wall Street banks, face the greatest risk of insolvency
due to mounting commercial real estate loan losses. According to federal guidelines, 2,988
banks nationwide are classified as having a "CRE Concentration." None of these banks are
among the 19 largest bank holding companies. Forecasts project that banks will suffer their
worst losses well after the timeframe examined by the stress tests - an exercise conducted
only on the nation's 19 largest bank holding companies - and well after Treasury's
authority expires under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
The Panel found that "a significant wave of commercial mortgage defaults would trigger
economic damage that could touch the lives of nearly every American." When commercial
properties fail, it creates a downward spiral of economic contraction: job losses;
deteriorating store fronts, office buildings and apartments; and the failure of the banks
serving those communities. Because community banks play a critical role in financing the
small businesses that could help the American economy create new jobs, their widespread
failure could disrupt local communities, undermine the economic recovery and extend an
already painful recession.
The full report is available at cop.senate.gov.
The Congressional Oversight Panel was created to oversee the expenditure of the
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds authorized by Congress in the Emergency
Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA) and to provide recommendations on

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Congressional Oversight Panel: Congressional Oversight Panel Analyzes Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability

regulatory reform. The Panel members are: former Securities and Exchange
Commissioner Paul S. Atkins; J. Mark McWatters; Richard H. Neiman, Superintendent of
Banks for the State of New York; Damon Silvers, Policy Director and Special Counsel for
the AFL-CIO; and Elizabeth Warren, Leo Gottlieb Professor of Law at Harvard Law
School.

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