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L =2 . 3 ' Trends in Manufacturing: A Chartbook U. S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics S .M .S .U . L IB R A R Y U.S. D E P O S IT O R Y April 1985 Bulletin 2219 MAY 2 41985 Trends in Manufacturing: A Chartbook U.S. Department of Labor Ford B. Ford, Under Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner April 1985 Bulletin 2219 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C 20402 Preface Through charts, tables, and text, this chartbook portrays long-term trends in manufacturing output, em ploym ent, p ro d u c tiv ity , and related economic indicators and, wherever possible, comparable inter national data. It also devotes atten tion to developments in the last decade. Although movements of employment, production, and pro ductivity are affected by the business cycle, the periods examined in this report were believed to be, for the most part, at comparable stages of the cycle. The chartbook also in cludes BLS projections of employ ment and occupations for 1995 in the manufacturing sector. This chartbook was produced in the Office of Productivity and Technology in the Bureau of Labor Statistics by Rose N. Zeisel assisted by Charles Bell, under the direction of Jerome A. Mark, Associate Commis sioner, in collaboration with the Manufacturing Studies Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Material in this publication is in the public domain and, with appropriate credit, may be reproduced without permission. Contents Page Part I: Output, employment, and trade in manufacturing..................................................................................... 1 Chart 1. Output, 1950-83....................................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Employment, 1950-83.............................................................................................................................................. 5 3. Employment by industry sector, 1950 and 1983.................................................................................................. 7 4. Employment by occupation, 1983.......................................................................................................................... g 5. Employment by sex, 1960-83.................................................................................................................................. 11 6. Occupational distribution by sex, 1983................................................................................................................. 13 7. Educational attainment, 1973 and 1983.................................................................................................................. 15 8. Imports and exports, 1973 and 1981...................................................................................................................... 17 9. Export trade, selected countries, 1955 and 1980................................................................................................... 19 Part II: Productivity trends in manufacturing.......................................................................................................... 21 10. Output per hour of all persons, 1950-83................................................................................................................. 23 11. Output per employee hour, selected countries, 1950-83....................................................................................... 25 12. Output per hour, output, and hours, 1950-73 and 1973-83..................................................................................... 27 13. Output per hour, output, and hours, selected countries, 1950-73 and 1973-83.................................................... 29 14. Output per hour, output per unit of capital, and multifactor productivity, 1950-83............................................... 31 15. Output per hour, capital effects, and multifactor productivity, 1950-73 and 1973-83........................................... 33 16. Output per employee hour, selected industries, 1960-83...................................................................................... 35 17. Productivity rates before and after 1973, selected industries............................................................................... 37 Part III: Implications of productivity growth for employment, compensation, unit labor costs, and prices in manufacturing ....................................................................................................................................... 39 18. Output per employee hour and employment, selected industries, 1973-83......................................................... 41 19. Output and employment in selected industries with similar productivity growth, 1973-83................................. 43 20. Output per hour, unit labor costs, and compensation per hour, 1950-83.............................................................. 45 21. Composition of price changes, 1950-83................................................................................................................. 47 22. Output per employee hour and prices, selected industries, 1973-81.................................................................... 49 23. Output per employee hour and compensation per employee hour, selected industries, 1973-81 ...................... 51 24. Hourly compensation costs for production workers, selected countries, 1960-83.............................................. 53 25. Output per hour, hourly compensation, and unit labor costs, selected countries, 1960-73 and 1973-83............ 55 26. Unit labor costs, measured in U.S. dollars, selected countries, 1973-80 and 1980-83.......................................... 57 Contents— Continued Page Part IV: Factors affecting productivity change in manufacturing....................................................................... 59 Chart 27. Capital investment as percent of output, selected countries, 1965-73 and 1974-82............................................. gl 28. Research and development funds, current and constant dollars, selected years, 1967-82................................. 63 29. Research and development funds as percent of net sales in companies performing R&D, by size of company, 1981.................................................................................................................................... 30. Research and development funds as percent of net sales in companies performing R&D, selected industries, 1981.................................................................................................................................... gg 67 31. Research and development scientists and engineers per 1,000 employees, selected industries, 1982............. 69 Part V: Employment and occupational projections to 1995 in manufacturing.................................................. 71 32. Employment growth in high-technology industries and in total manufacturing, 1982-95................................... 73 33. Projected changes in occupational employment, 1982-95................................................................................... 75 34. Projected employment changes in fastest growing and most rapidly declining occupations, 1982-1995......... 77 Appendix: Supporting data for charts................................................................................................................................. 79-104 Part I. Output, employment, and trade in manufacturing This section presents information on long-term trends in output, employment, and trade in the m a n u fa c tu rin g s e c to r of the economy. In addition, it contains data on labor composition, sex, occupation, and educational attain ment. 2 Output of manufactured goods nearly tripled since 1950, but growth has slowed sharply in the last decade While the long-term growth of manufacturing output was moderate ly strong from 1950 to 1983, it slowed sharply in the last decade. Before 1973, the output of manufactured goods rose an average of 4.0 percent annually; after 1973, the growth rate was down to 0.9 percent, reflecting largely the decline in the early 1980’s. The slowdown was more pronounced in durable than in nondurable goods manufacturing. Nevertheless, manufacturing out put continued to account for almost one-quarter of total output of the economy through the postwar period. Manufacturing output1 (average annual percent change) Total Durable goods Nondurable goods Manufacturing out put as a percent of total output2 (average) 1950-83......................................... 3.1 3.0 3.1 24.4 1950-73..................................... 1973-83..................................... 4.0 0.9 4.0 0.7 4.0 1.1 24.6 24.1 Slowdown.................................... 3.1 3.3 2.9 0.5 Period 1 Gross product originating in manufacturing in constant dollars. 2 Gross national product in constant dollars. 3 Chart 1 Output 1 in manufacturing, 1950-83 Index, 1950 = 100 1950 1955 1960 1965 1Gross product originating in manufacturing, constant dollars. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1970 1975 1980 1985 There were 3 million more manufacturing jobs in 1983 than in 1950, but nearly 1.7 million fewer than in 1973 Over the last three decades, from 1950 to 1983, manufacturing employ ment rose from about 15.2 million to 18.5 million. While the growth rate was moderate from 1950 to 1973, employment declined in the follow ing decade, reflecting the slowdown in output. In 1983, there were nearly 1.7 million fewer employees in manufacturing than a decade earlier. Two-thirds of the decline in employment was in the durable goods sector, a reversal of the 1950-73 experience when more than three-quarters of the employment gains in manufacturing occurred in that sector. In 1983, the durable goods industries still accounted fora larger share (58 percent) of all manufacturing jobs than in 1950 (53 percent). 5 Chart 2 Employment in manufacturing, 1950-83 1950 1955 1960 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 6 Manufacturing accounted for less than one-fifth of all civilian jobs in 1983 While manufacturing employment increased by about a fifth (3 million jobs) since 1950, employment in service-producing industries more than doubled (40 million jobs). Con sequently by 1983, manufacturing ac counted for less than a fifth of civilian employment, down from almost a third in 1950. In contrast, the share of employment in service industries rose to about threequarters of the total by 1983. These changes in the industrial distribution of employment reflect different rates of growth in produc tivity and demand. 7 Chart 3 Employment by industry sector, 1950 and 1983 Percent 100 Manufacturing 80 60 i 40 Services I 20 1950 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1983 8 Manufacturing jobs are heavily concentrated in production operations About 6 of every 10 employees in manufacturing in 1983 held operator, craft, laborer, or other production jobs. The other 4 held managerial, professional, technical, sales, or ad ministrative support jobs. Com parable data are not available for earlier years, but statistics for a wide range of industries suggest that the proportion of operators, fabricators, and laborers has declined substan tially in the last several decades with the introduction and diffusion of ad vanced technology and materialshandling equipment. 9 Chart 4 Manufacturing employment by occupation, 1983 Farming, forestry, Technical, sales, administrative support production, craft, and repair Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 Women have filled an increasing share of manufacturing jobs over the past quarter century Women employees in manufactur ing increased by 37 percent from 1960 to 1983, while the number of e m p lo ye d men was v ir tu a lly unchanged. Women’s share of total manufac turing employment rose almost steadily over the period; in the 1960’s and 1970’s, there was a greater in crease in women employees than men and in the 1980’s, the number of women workers declined less rapid ly. By 1983, they accounted for onethird of the manufacturing work force. 11 Chart 5 Employment in manufacturing by sex 1960-83 1960 ‘ 1965 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1970 1975 1980 1985 12 Women hold almost 40 percent of operator, fabricator, and laborer jobs In the largest manufacturing oc c u p a tio n a l g ro u p , o p e ra to rs , fabricators, and laborers, men and women shared jobs in a ratio of 6 to 4 in 1983. In the managerial and profes sional group, 8 out of every 10 jobs were held by men. The largest con centration of women was in the technical, sales, and administrative support group. They held more than half of the jobs in this occupational category. Although comparable occupa tional data are not available for other years, an earlier series suggests significant changes in the jobs women hold. For example, from 1968 to 1982, the proportion of women in professional and technical jobs rose from 10 to 20 percent, and in manager, official, and proprietor jobs from 7 to 15 percent. 13 Chart 6 O ccu p a tio n a l d is trib u tio n in m a n u fa ctu rin g by sex, 1983 manufacturing professional sales, administrative support Source: Bureau of Labor S ta tis tic s production, fabricators, craft, and and laborers repair forestry, and fishing 14 Workers in manufacturing are better educated today than in the past E d u c a tio n a l a tta in m e n t of manufacturing employees is rising and is associated with patterns of in dustrial growth that require more education. Between 1973 and 1983, the proportion of employees with 4 years of college or more almost doubled, while the proportion that did not continue on to high school fell by almost half. By far the largest proportion of the workforce, almost half, has com pleted 4 years of high school, and this group has increased only slightly in the last decade. 15 Chart 7 Educational attainment in manufacturing, 1973 and 1983 Percent of all manufacturing employees Elementary school Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics High school College 16 Imports and exports account for an increasing proportion of manufacturing shipments International trade is becoming in creasingly important to manufactur ing. Exports as a ' percent * of shipments (export proportion) rose by half between 1973 and 1981 (latest available data). At the same time, im Year 1973..................................................... 1974..................................................... 1975..................................................... 1976..................................................... 1977..................................................... 1978..................................................... 1979..................................................... 1980..................................................... 1981..................................................... ports as a percent of supply (import penetration) increased by almost a third. Import penetration and export pro portion increased from 1973 to 1981 in almost every major industry group. ' Import penetration1 Manufacturing Export proportion2 Manufacturing 6.4 7.3 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.9 7.9 8.2 8.4 6.6 80 8.7 8.2 7.7 8.0 9.0 10 0 9.9 1 Imports as a percent of the sum of U.S. product shipments and imports. 2 Exports as a percent of U.S. product shipments. 17 Chart 8 Imports and exports by major manufacturing group, 1973 and 1981 Export proportion Import penetration 1973 1981 All manufacturing Food Tobacco Textiles Apparel Lumber Furniture Paper £ Printing and publishing Chemicals Petroleum refining Rubber Leather Stone, clay, and glass Primary metals Fabricated metals Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures 25 20 15 10 Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 18 The U.S. share of export trade in manufactured goods has declined sharply in the postwar period While international trade has become more important in the postwar period, the U.S. share of world export trade of all manufac tured goods and of technology intensive products declined sharply. By 1980 (latest available data), Ger many had a larger share of trade in manufactured goods than the United States, and almost the same share of the technology-intensive product market. At the same time, Japan was rapidly approaching the U.S. share of both of these export markets. The loss of American market shares to o th e r c o u n trie s is associated with many changes here and abroad, including comparative productivity growth, relative compen sation per hour, and the increasing value of the dollar abroad. 19 Chart 9 Share of export trade of all manufactured products and technology intensive products, selected countries, 1955 and 1980 Percent Technology-intensive products All manufactured products 50 40 30 1955 20 10 0 U.S. France Germany Note: For definitions, see footnote 2, table 9. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Japan U.S. France Germany Japan Part II. Productivity trends in manufacturing This part presents labor productivi ty measures for the manufacturing sector and for 75 manufacturing in dustries. It also contains multifactor productivity measures for manufac tu rin g . C o m p a ra b le data are presented for 5 foreign countries where available. The BLS productivity data measure output per hour of all employed per sons for the manufacturing sector, and output per employee hour for the industry groups. The BLS indexes of labor productivity relate output to the input of labor time, i.e., output per hour. Output is a measure of the amount of finished product provided by the manufacturing sector, while input is a measure of paid labor time. Labor is not solely or primarily responsible for productivity growth 21 and the use of labor productivity in dexes is not meant to imply this. In a technologically advanced society, labor effort is only one of many sources of productivity improvement. Trends in output per hour also reflect technological innovation, changes in capital stock and capacity utilization, scale of production, materials flow, m anagem ent s k ills , and other factors. The BLS multifactor productivity measure shows the changes in the amount of labor and capital used in production. As with the labor produc tivity index, this measure also re flects the joint effect of many in fluences, but does not reflect the ef fect of the substitution of capital for labor. 22 Manufacturing productivity has continued to climb, but at a slower rate Productivity in manufacturing was more than twice as great in 1983 as in 1950. The average annual gain over the entire period was 2.5 percent as productivity grew more rapidly in the nondurable goods sector than in the durable goods sector. The increase in manufacturing pro ductivity began to slow in 1973. Earlier it had grown at an annual rate of 2.8 percent, but during the decade ending in 1983, its growth rate slow ed to 1.8 percent. The slowdown was evident in both the durable and non durable goods sectors. No simple explanation exists for the decline in productivity growth since 1973, nor is there general agreement on the quantitative im pact of the factors which are thought to have contributed to the slowdown. Various explanations have been presented by researchers, but none, singly or in total, fully explains the falloff. Some of these explanations have been the effects of changes in the composition of the labor force, a leveling off in research and develop ment expenditures in the late 1960’s, the maturation of some industries with little new technology, the diver sion of investment funds to pollution abatement in some industries, energy price increases, and even changes in attitudes toward work. Output per hour of all persons in manufacturing ^(average annual percent change) Total manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods 1950-83............................................... 2.5 2.2 2.9 1950-73........................................... 1973-83........................................... 2.8 1.8 2.3 1.9 3.4 1.7 Slowdown........................................... -1 .0 -0 .4 - 1 .7 23 Chart 10 Output per hour of all persons in manufacturing, 1950-83 1950 1955 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 24 U.S. productivity growth has been among the lowest of the industrial countries before and after 1973 Productivity gains in manufactur ing were lower in the United States over the period 1950-83 than in the other major industrial countries studied by BLS. Before 1973, the U.S. productivity growth rate was the lowest of the countries shown; after 1973, the United States and Canada had the smallest gains. The slowdown in the last decade from the earlier postwar advance was pervasive among the in dustrial countries, but affected them unevenly. Except for the United Kingdom, the U.S. slowdown was the least severe of the countries shown. Although Japan experienced the largest falloff in productivity growth after 1973, its growth rate continued to be substantially greater than the rates in the other countries. Output per employee hour in manufacturing (average annual percent change) 1950-83 Country United States.................................... Canada............................................... France................................................ Germany............................................ Japan................................................. United Kingdom............................... 1950-73 1973-83 Change, 1950-73 to 1973-83 2.5 3.5 5.4 5.6 9.0 3.0 2.8 4.3 5.8 6.5 10.0 3.3 18 18 46 37 68 2.4 -1 0 -2 5 -1 2 -2 8 -3 2 -0 .9 25 C hart 11 O u tp u t per em ployee hour in m a n u fa ctu rin g , selected co u n trie s, 1950-83 1950 1955 1960 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 26 The productivity slowdown after 1973 is associated with greatly reduced output The productivity slowdown after 1973 is associated with a steeper drop in output growth than in hours. Both the durable and nondurable goods sectors recorded slower pro ductivity growth rates after 1973, and reflected greatly reduced output growth. However, the slowdown was more severe in the nondurable goods sector, where output growth declined considerably more rapidly than hours. 27 Chart 12 Output per hour, output, and hours in manufacturing, 1950-73 and 1973-83 Average annual percent change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 471-442 0 - 8 5 - 2 In all major industrial countries, output growth slowed down after 1973 As in the United States, the pro ductivity slowdown after 1973 in the other major industrial countries shown reflected substantially lower rates of output growth than in earlier years. The U.S. output growth drop ped to an average of less than 1 per cent annually in the past decade, while Japan’s rate fell to about 6 per cent annua lly. In the U nited Kingdom, output declined almost 2 percent. 29 Chart 13 Output per hour, output, and hours in manufacturing, selected countries, 1950-73 and 1973-83 Average annual percent change Output Output per hour 1950-73 United States — 1973-83 Canada France Germany Japan United Kingdom 0 5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 -5 0 5 10 1 5 -5 0 5 30 Multifactor productivity increased by three-quarters over the last three decades M u ltifa c to r p ro ductivity is a measure of output per unit of com bined labor and capital input. This p ro d u c tiv ity series shows the changes in the amount of labor and capital used in production. It reflects the combined effects of many in fluences, including changes in technology, the level of output, utilization of capacity, the organiza tion of production, managerial skills, as w e ll as ch a n g e s in th e characteristics and efforts of the work force. The tra d itio n a l p ro d u c tiv ity series—output per hour of all per sons— reflects these influences and also the impact of changes in capital per unit of labor. The new measure, therefore, supplements the existing measure by providing a basis for measuring that impact. Over the 1950-83 period, when multifactor productivity increased 1.7 percent per year, the traditional pro ductivity measure of output per hour in manufacturing rose 2.5 percent per year. The difference between the growth in labor productivity and multifactor productivity, 0.8 percent per year, is the effect of the substitu tion of capital for labor. Output per unit of capital (capital productivity) fluctuated over this period but did not register a significant trend. 1950-83 Measure Average annual percent change Output per hour................................................................................................. 2.5 Multifactor productivity................................................................................... 1.7 Capital services contribution.......................................................................... 0.8 31 Chart 14 Output per hour, output per unit of capital, and multifactor productivity in manufacturing, 1950-83 1950 1955 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 32 Multifactor productivity growth slowed significantly after 1973 M u ltifa c to r p r o d u c tiv ity in manufacturing grew at an average an nual rate of 2.1 percent from 1950 to 1973, and 0.8 percent from 1973 to 1983. This slowdown of 1.3 percen tage points per year reflects a greater decline in the rate of output growth than in the combined inputs of labor and capital services. The capital-labor ratio did not con tribute to the slowdown in output per hour, as it grew faster after 1973 than during the earlier period. Contribution of capital services per hour to productivity in manufacturing, 1950-83 (Average annual percent change) 1950-73 1973-83 Change 1950-73 to 1973-83 Output per hour................................ 2.8 1.8 - 1.0 Minus: Capital effects1................... 0.7 1.0 0.3 Equals: Multifactor productivity2 ................................. 2.1 0.8 -1 .3 Measure 1 Contribution of capital services per hour to output per hour. 2 Output per unit of combined labor and capital input. Chart 15 Output per hour, capital effects, and multifactor productivity in manufacturing, 1950-73 and 1973-83 1950-73 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1973-83 34 Productivity has advanced in almost all manufacturing industries since 1960 Almost all the manufacturing in dustries measured by BLS have shown productivity gains since 1960. The rates of growth for the individual industries were widely dispersed around the average rate for all manufacturing. Productivity changes differed among industries for a varie ty of reasons. Some industries, such as hosiery and synthetic fibers, which were among the leaders for the period, with an average annual in crease of about 6.5 percent, installed highly advanced production machin ery and enjoyed rapidly growing demand. In contrast, the decline in p ro d u c tiv ity in m e ta l-fo rm in g machine tools and the low growth rate in steel were associated with wide swings in output, aging equip ment, rising imports, and capacity utilization rates below efficient levels. 35 Chart 16 Output per employee hour, selected manufacturing industries, 1960-83 Average annual percent change Synthetic fiber Hosiery Aluminum rolling, drawing Corrugated, solid fiberboard boxes Paper, paperboard, and pulp mills Petroleum refining Motor vehicles and equipment Metal cans Soaps and detergents Nonwool yarn mills Bakery products Construction machinery and equipment Motors and generators Steel Wood office furniture Fabricated structural metal Steel foundries Footwear Metal-forming machine tools Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 36 Many manufacturing industries registered productivity declines after 1973 Although most industries showed gains over the last two decades, the growth was not steady. A slowdown in productivity growth after 1973 af fected more than half of the in dustries measured by BLS; about one-fifth showed actual productivity declines. However, more than one- fourth of the industries registered higher productivity gains after 1973. These included several food process ing and furniture industries, ceramic tile, and metal cans. Their higher pro d u c tiv ity ra te s are g e n e ra lly associated with the diffusion of new technology. 37 Chart 17 Productivity rates before and after 1973, selected manufacturing industries 1960-73 Average annual percent change 1973-81 Hosiery Synthetic fibers Pharmaceutical preparations Major household appliances Paper, paperboard, and pulp mills Wet corn milling Ceramic wall and floor tile Tires and inner tubes Motor vehicles and equipment 3 Bakery products Wood household furniture D 3 Steel Fabricated structural metal Steel foundries Metal-cutting machine tools Fabricated pipe and fittings -3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -2 -1 0 l 1 I____ I____ L 2 3 4 J____ L 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Part III. Implications of productivity change for employment, compensation, unit labor costs, and prices in manufacturing This section shows the implica tions of productivity change for varia tions in prices, hourly compensation, unit labor costs, and employment in manufacturing. It presents com parable data for the United States and other major industrial countries, where available, and explains the ef fects of changes in exchange rates on our competitive position. Output per hour is a critical link between the cost of labor and the price of goods and services. Labor costs, which include rates of pay, overtime, and fringe benefits, repre sent the largest single cost element for most industries. Thus, the trend in labor costs per unit of output plays a major role in determining prices. 40 Employment increased in some manufacturing industries with rising productivity, but declined in others As the chart illustrates, productivi ty gains may be accompanied by in creases or decreases in employment; no relationship between the two has been established. Of the industries which have shown some productivity growth since 1973, 72 percent registered employment losses, 26 percent had employment gains, and 2 percent had no change. In contrast, in 1960-73, fewer than one-third of the industries with productivity growth had registered declines in employ ment. Reductions in employment are associated with productivity growth either because of strong techno logical progress or modest or declin ing output. 41 Chart 18 Output per employee hour and employment, selected manufacturing industries, 1973-83 Average annual percent change Employment 8 ® Instruments to measure electricity • • Fabricated structural metal Pumps and compressors • \ Miscellaneous plastics products Valves and pipe fittings Preserved fruits and vegetables / • Bottled and canned soft drinks Petroleum r e f i n i n g \ Ready-mixed concrete — - ^ # 4 Sausages and other prepared meats Paper, paperboard, and luip m m s ' P h a r m a c e u t i c a l preparations Bakery products > — — Corrugated and solid fiber board w \ # Meat packing plants Wood household fu r n itu re ^ ** • 0 ^ Upholstered household furniture Construction machinery and equipment' • -2 Concrete products \ Footwear• -4 N' Nonwool yarn mills > Sawmills and planing mills, general \ Motor vehicles and equipment Farm and garden machinery • . Synthetic fibers ’ • Steel Fluid milk# # Radio and television receiving sets Tires and inner tubes# -6 -8 -10 I -6 I -4 -2 _____________ I_____________ I_____________ I______________I_____________ I_____________ 2 4 Output per employee hour Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 12 42 Similar productivity trends in different industries may reflect differing trends in output and hours The relation between labor produc tivity growth and employment trends is associated with an industry’s change in output. This is illustrated by the three industries shown on the chart, all of which had approximately the same productivity growth rate in 1973-83. Output rose considerably faster than productivity in the household cooking equipment in dustry, and employee hours increas ed. Where output gains exceeded the productivity rise only slightly (e.g., hosiery), employee hours rose only very moderately. In contrast, output in the tire industry declined, and employee hours dropped sharply. 43 Chart 19 Output and employment in selected industries with similar productivity growth, 1973-83 Average annual percent change 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 Employee hours -6 Household cooking equipment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Hosiery Tires Hourly compensation rose more after 1973 than before, and productivity growth declined; hence, unit labor costs rose much more rapidly after 1973 Unit labor cost is the ratio of hour ly compensation to output per hour. Thus, productivity change is an im p o rta n t d e te rm in a n t of c o s t movements. This is demonstrated by the two top panels of the chart, showing that changes in unit labor costs are inversely related to changes in productivity. Unit labor costs tend to rise when productivity growth slows or declines, and to slow or decline when productivity growth accelerates. Hourly compensation in manufac Output per hour Period and sector turing rose more sharply after 1973 than before. At the same time, the rate of productivity growth slowed down. Consequently, unit labor costs rose much more rapidly after 1973 than before. Hourly compensation changes in durables and nondurables were about the same before and after 1973; but because the slowdown in output per hour in nondurables was greater than in durables, unit labor costs accelerated more sharply in nondurables after 1973. Hourly compensation Unit labor costs Average annual percent change Total manufacturing: 1950-83........................................... 1950-73...................................... 1973-83...................................... 2.5 2.8 1.8 6.3 5.2 9.0 3.8 2.4 7.0 Durable goods: 1950-83........................................... 1950-73....................................... 1973-83 ...................................... 2.2 2.3 1.9 6.4 5.3 9.0 4.1 2.9 7.0 Nondurable goods: 1950-83........................................... 1950-73...................................... 1973-83...................................... 2.9 3.4 1.7 6.2 5.0 9.1 3.2 1.5 7.2 45 Chart 20 Output per hour, unit labor costs, and compensation per hour in manufacturing, 1950-83 Unit labor costs Compensation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 46 Unit labor costs and prices in manufacturing accelerated after 1973 Changes in unit labor costs are generally the most important compo nent of price change, as the chart shows. Thus if productivity growth mitigates increases in unit labor costs, this can in turn, mitigate in creases in prices. However, unit labor costs can be a result as well as a cause of price rises. Price increases that cause employee purchasing power to fall lead to pressure for higher wages. As shown in the chart, prices and unit labor costs in manufacturing ac celerated after 1973, as hourly com pensation increased and productivity growth slowed down. 47 Chart 21 Composition of price changes in manufacturing, 1950-83 Percent change from previous year Implicit price deflator Unit nonlabor payments 1950 1955 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 48 In many manufacturing industries, prices rose strongly while productivity declined The inverse relationship that generally prevails between price change and productivity change at the industry level is very evident for the 1973-81 period. Prices rose less than the average or declined in in dustries such as food processing, hosiery, synthetic fibers, and radio and television, where productivity rose at above-average rates. In con trast, prices rose strongly where pro ductivity declined over this period, or increased relatively slowly. Of the group where productivity declined, primary aluminum, steel foundries, and metal-cutting machine tools registered the largest price in creases. 49 Chart 22 Output per employee hour and prices, selected manufacturing industries, 1973-81 Average annual percent change Prices • Petroleum refining ' Construction machinery and equipnr ent • Farm and garden machine y . • steel / Motors and generators* Footwear* 1 * • • Bakery products / / Sawmills and planing mi Is, general / Preserved fru ts and vegetables Motor vehicles and equipment Tires and inner tubes 0 Bottled and canned soft drinks 9 Paper, paperboard, and pulp mills Miscellaneous plastics products ®i§ Corrugated and solid fiber board boxes • / . / / Meat packing plants lnstrum<3nts to measure electricity / Pharmaceutical preparations Synthetic fibers I -4 -2 1 ____________________ l____________________ 1 ____________________ ____________________ 0 2 Output per employee hour Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 4 6 8 Hourly compensation rose about as much in industries with declining productivity as in industries with productivity growth In contrast to prices, the factors in fluencing changes in compensation in individual industries have been in dependent of the factors influencing changes in productivity. This is shown by the high degree of unifor mity in changes in hourly compensa tion among the industries. Hourly compensation increased about as much between 1973 and 1981 in in dustries with declining productivity, such as steel foundries, metal forming machine tools, and primary aluminum, as in industries with a high rate of productivity growth, such as hosiery and wood office furniture. 51 Chart 23 Output per employee hour and compensation per employee hour, selected manufacturing industries, 1973-81 Average annual percent change Output per employee hour Wet corn milling Synthetic fibers Hosiery Wood office furniture Metal cans Primary copper, lead, zinc Tires Pharmaceutical preparation Glass containers Paper, paperboard Nonwool yarn mills Motor vehicles Steel Construction machinery Footwear Primary aluminum Motors and generators Fabricated structural metal Steel foundries Metal-forming machine tools -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1213 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1213 52 Hourly compensation costs in major industrial countries have been declining relative to the United States In 1983, at current exchange rates, hourly compensation costs for manufacturing production workers are higher in the United States than in Canada, France, Germany, Japan, or the United Kingdom. Hourly com pensation costs in these countries ranged from about 50 percent to over 90 percent of U.S. costs. Since about 1980, hourly compen sation costs in major industrial coun tries have been declining relative to the United States, reversing the longer term trend. For the 4 years ending in 1980, Germany hourly com pensation costs actually surpassed those in the United States; by 1983, they were 85 percent of U.S. costs. The changes shown in relative compensation levels reflect changes in relative currency values as well as differential rates of gain in hourly compensation as measured in each country’s own currency. To a signifi cant extent, the sharp increase in U.S. hourly compensation costs since 1980, compared with other countries, is the result of the strong appreciation of the dollar. 53 Chart 24 Hourly compensation costs for production workers in manufacturing, selected countries, 1960-83 1960 1965 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 1970 1975 1980 1985 Unit labor costs in manufacturing accelerated after 1973 in almost all industrial countries In almost all industrial countries, slower productivity advances after 1973, combined with increased gains in hourly compensation, resulted in higher rises in unit labor costs. From 1973 to 1983, unit labor costs in the United States accelerated to an average of 7 percent annually, up from 1.5 percent per year in 1960-73. While productivity gains slowed down to 1.8 percent after 1973, hourly compensation rose to 9 percent. Every country shown except Japan experienced higher unit labor costs (in national currency) after 1973. While all countries had slower pro ductivity growth after 1973, all coun tries except Japan and Germany had more rapid increases in hourly com pensation. 55 Chart 25 Output per hour, hourly compensation, and unit labor costs in manufacturing, selected countries, 1960-73 and 1973-83 (Average annual percent change) Output per hour Country Unit labor costs (nationa currenc> basis) 1 United States ■ W ■ 1_ Canada misiiii ■Hr h France . — 1 Germany Japan United Kingdom HU| ■ 0 5 10 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 0 5 10 15 Measured in U.S. dollars, unit labor costs in most industrial countries declined after 1980 Competitive relationships among countries are affected by relative changes in currency exchange rates as well as by relative changes in unit labor costs. Exchange rates have been especially volatile since the ear ly 1970’s, in some cases accen tuating and in other cases counter balancing relative changes in unit labor costs measured in national cur rencies. Since 1980, the value of the U.S. dollar has appreciated strongly, par ticularly against the currencies of the European countries. Consequent ly, unit labor costs measured in U.S. dollars declined by about 8 or 9 per cent per year in the European coun tries shown, and by nearly 3 percent in Japan, compared with an increase of almost 4 percent in the United States. 57 Chart 26 Unit labor costs in manufacturing, measured in U.S. dollars, selected countries, 1973-80 and 1980-83 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Part IV. Factors affecting productivity change in manufacturing This section presents data on some of the forces underlying pro ductivity changes in manufacturing. The charts show capital investment as a percent of output in the United States and in other industrial coun tries, and data on research and development in the United States. Capital investment and research and development funds can have an important role in productivity growth, but, for many reasons, cannot be directly tied to it. For example, ex penditures for safety and health equipment may or may not relate to changes in output per hour. Also, the time lag between investment and its impact on productivity varies con siderably. 60 The ratio of investment to output has been lower in the United States than in other industrial countries Capital investment as a percent of output in manufacturing in the United States averaged 11.1 percent in 1974-82, slightly above the average for 1965-73. Compared to the other industrial countries shown here, however, the U.S. investment rate has been low since at least 1965. The differences narrowed in the more recent period, when the other countries reduced their investment rates. 61 Chart 27 Capital investment as percent of output in manufacturing, selected countries, 1965-73 and 1974-82 Annual averages, percent 3 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Japan France Germany United Kingdom Real outlays for research and development in manufacturing have risen by three-fifths over the last two decades Funds for research and develop ment can generate increases in pro ductivity through the subsequent ap plication of more efficient equipment and processes. R&D expenditures by manufactur ing companies were more than four times larger in 1982 than in 1963. But in constant dollars, i.e., eliminating price changes, they increased only 60 percent, with almost all of the in crease coming after 1975. 63 Chart 28 Research and development funds, manufacturing companies, current and constant dollars, selected years, 1967-82 Index, 1963 = 100 100 — 1967 ^ 1970 Source: National Science Foundation 1972 ^ 1974 1976 —mu i-------— i—i—J------1— 1978 1980 1982 On average, large companies are more R&D intensive In general, large manufacturing companies are more R&D intensive than small companies. In 1981, com panies which performed R&D and had 25,000 employees or more spent an average of 4.6 percent of their net sales on R&D, while those with fewer than 25,000 employees averaged about 2 percent or less. 65 Chart 29 Research and development funds as a percent of net sales in manufacturing companies performing R&D, by size of company, 1981 Number of employees Percent of sales Source: National Science Foundation 66 The rate of R&D spending as a percent of net sales in manufacturing has declined Research and development funds have not increased as rapidly as sales for the manufacturing com panies engaged in R&D. Consequent ly, R&D funds as a percent of net sales have declined from 4.5 percent in 1963 to a low of 2.6 percent in 1979. By 1982, the rate had moved up to 3.7 percent, but it reflected reduc ed sales. At the same time, Federal funds as a percent of R&D outlays Year dropped sharply over the 20-year period. Of the major industries, aircraft and missiles registered the highest outlays for R&D as a percent of net sales in 1981, while textiles and ap parel had the lowest ratio. About three-fourths of the aircraft outlays were federally funded compared to less than 1 percent for textiles and apparel. R&D funds as percent of | Federal funds as percent of net sales1 (Manufacturing) R&D funds 1963................................................ 1967................................................ 4.5 4.2 57.3 50.4 1970................................................ 1971................................................ 1972................................................ 1973................................................ 1974................................................ 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 42.0 41.0 40.3 37.6 35.1 1975................................................ 1976................................................ 1977................................................ 1978................................................ 1979................................................ 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.6 35.4 35.1 34.9 33.2 32.3 1980................................................ 1981................................................ 1982................................................ 3.0 3.1 3.7 31.0 31.1 31.8 1 Only for those companies engaged in R&D activities. 67 Chart 30 Research and development funds as percent of net sales in manufacturing companies performing R&D, selected industries, 1981 Aircraft and missiles Communication equipment Electrical equipment Machinery Motor vehicles and equipment Chemicals and allied products Total manufacturing Primary metals Textiles and apparel 0 4 8 R&D funds as a percent of net sales Source: National Science Foundation 12 16 e s There is wide variation in use of R&D scientists and engineers among industries For all manufacturing companies engaged in R&D in 1982, the last year for which data are available, there were 35 R&D scientists and engineers per thousand employees, the highest rate in at least 20 years. Although the growth of R&D scientists and engineers, in general, was relatively steady over the two decades, employment of other occupations was more sensitive to the business cycle. The high rate in 1982, in part, reflects the falloff of other manufac turing em ploym ent w hich was associated w ith the econom ic downturn in that year. The proportion of R&D scientists to employment varies widely among the major industries in manufactur ing companies engaged in R&D. In 1982, aircraft and missiles had the highest proportion, 102 per thou sand, while textiles and apparel had the lowest, 3 per thousand. 69 Chart 31 Research & development scientists and engineers per thousand employees,! selected manufacturing industries, 1982 Aircraft and missiles Electrical equipment Chemicals Machinery Manufacturing average Motor vehicles and equipment Petroleum refining Paper Fabricated metal Stone, clay, and glass Primary metals Other transportation equipment Food Textiles and apparel1 1 In companies engaged in R&D. Source: National Science Foundation Proportion Part V. Employment and occupational projections to 1995 in manufacturing This section presents projections of employment and occupations for 1995, with special emphasis on hightechnology industries. BLS has developed three alternative employ ment projections to 1995, based on low, moderate, and high economic growth models for the overall economy. Data presented in this sec tion are based on the moderate trend version. The criteria used by BLS to classify high-technology industries are explained in table 32. Briefly, they are based on the amount of research and development expenditures, the proportion of scientific and technical personnel relative to total employ ment, and the degree of product sophistication. Employing these criteria, the BLS developed three definitions of high technology to analyze em ploym ent trends in manufacturing industries. Employment in high-technology industries is expected to increase more rapidly than manufacturing employment as a whole Employment in manufacturing is projected to grow by 1.6 percent an nually between 1982 and 1995. This growth rate is well above the rate of the 1970’s and in part reflects recovery from the 1982 employment low. By 1995, there would be about 4.3 million new manufacturing jobs. Continuing the trend of the 1970’s, employment in high-technology in dustries is expected to increase more rapidly than total manufactur Employment group1 ing employment. Employment in high-technology industries will in crease by 2.1 to 2.3 percent annually between 1982 and 1995 under the three definitions of high-tech in dustries developed by BLS. This would mean an increase of 0.9 to 2.3 million new high-tech industry jobs by 1995, or between one-fifth and one-half of all new jobs in manufac turing. Projected change in employment2 1982-95 Millions of workers Percent of total Total manufacturing.................................................. 4.3 - High-tech Group I ................................................... 2.3 53 High-tech Group II.................................................. .9 20 High-tech Group III................................................. 1.6 38 1 Data do not add to total because some industries are included in more than one group. For defini tions of high-technology employment groups, see table 32, footnote 1. 2 Projected changes in employment between 1982-95 are based on the moderate trend alternative of economic growth for the overall economy developed by BLS. 73 Chart 32 Employment growth in high-technology industries and in total manufacturing, 1982-95 Industry classification All manufacturing High-tech group I High-tech group II High-tech group III 0 2 Average annual percent change Note: For definitions of high-tech groups l-lll, see table 32. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3 The shift in occupational structure from lower to higher skilled jobs is expected to continue through 1995 Technological advance and chang ing patterns of industrial growth are expected to contribute to a con tinued shift in the occupational structure of the work force between 1982 and 1995. In manufacturing, these factors will increase demand for highly educated and skilled workers while reducing requirements for lower skilled workers. The fastest growing occupational groups will be professional and technical workers and managers, officials, and pro prietors, while the slowest growth is expected for sales workers and laborers. Percent distribution Occupational group 1982 1995 Total manufacturing employment....................................... 100.0 100.0 Professional and technical workers................................... Managers, officials, and proprietors..................................... Sales workers.......................................................................... Clerical workers...................................................................... Craft and related workers....................................................... Operatives................................................................................ Laborers.................................................................................... Service workers....................................................................... 10.3 6.7 2.2 11.7 18.6 40.2 8.5 1.8 11.5 7.4 2.1 11.7 18.4 38.7 8.1 1.8 75 Chart 33 Projected changes in occupational employment in manufacturing, 1982-95 Occupational group All manufacturing Professional and technical workers Managers, officials, and proprietors Sales workers Clerical workers Craft and related workers Operatives Laborers Service workers Percent change in employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics High-technology occupations are expected to account for 6 of the 10 most rapidly growing occupations The Bureau of Labor Statistics pro jects that employment will rise in almost all manufacturing occupa tions between 1982 and 1995, a trend which partially reflects recovery from low 1982 recession levels. Sharp in creases are projected for a number of occupations which are predominant ly found in rapidly expanding in dustries. A few declines are pro jected for occupations which are either concentrated in contracting in dustries or in those which are being severely affected by technological change. The expansion of high-technology in manufacturing is expected to fuel demand for workers in high-tech oriented occupations, all of which are classified as professional or te chnical. Based on the BLS moderate trend version of economic growth, these occupations are pro jected to account for 6 of the 10 fastest growing manufacturing oc cupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more. 77 Chart 34 Projected employment changes in fastest growing and most rapidly declining occupations1 in manufacturing, 1982-95 Electrical engineers Computer specialists Electrical and electronic technicians Mechanical engineers Mechanical engineering technicians Instrument makers/assemblers Designers Numerical control machine tool operators Industrial engineers Miscellaneous machine operators, rubber and miscellaneous plastic Miscellaneous machine operators, meat and dairy products Data entry operators Drafters Typesetters and compositors Aircraft structure assemblers Shoemaking machine operators -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percent change in employment 1 Includes all occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more which are projected to increase by more than 40 percent or decline by more than 5 percent in the moderate trend projection. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 70 Appendix Supporting Data for Charts Table 1. Output1 in manufacturing, 1950-83 (Index, 1950 = 100) Year Total manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods 1950.................................. 1951.................................. 1952.................................. 1953.................................. 1954.................................. 100.0 111.4 115.0 122.9 114.1 100.0 115.1 120.7 131.4 117.4 100.0 105.9 106.7 110.4 109.3 1955.................................. 1956.................................. 1957.................................. 1958.................................. 1959.................................. 126.4 127.3 128.0 117.0 130.6 132.4 131.3 131.8 113.8 129.2 117.6 121.5 122.3 121.7 132.7 1960.................................. 1961.................................. 1962.................................. 1963.................................. 1964.................................. 131.1 131.2 142.5 154.3 165.3 129.3 127.4 140.9 153.0 166.3 133.7 136.8 144.8 156.2 164.0 1965.................................. 1966.................................. 1967.................................. 1968.................................. 1969.................................. 180.6 194.5 194.0 204.6 211.5 185.2 201.4 201.6 211.9 218.1 173.8 184.2 183.0 193.9 201.7 1970.................................. 1971.................................. 1972.................................. 1973.................................. 1974.................................. 199.3 203.6 223.2 248.2 237.8 198.7 200.3 221.8 248.7 238.6 200.1 208.5 225.2 247.4 236.6 1975.................................. 1976.................................. 1977.................................. 1978.................................. 1979.................................. 221.0 242.2 258.8 272.6 280.0 216.1 239.8 259.8 278.4 286.1 228.1 245.7 257.2 264.0 271.0 1980.................................. 1981.................................. 1982.................................. 1983.................................. 267.8 274.4 256.8 270.2 269.2 276.9 252.2 266.6 265.8 270.8 263.7 275.5 1 Gross product originating in manufacturing, in constant dollars. Table 2. Employment in manufacturing, 1950-83 (in thousands) Year 1950.................................. 1951.................................. 1952.................................. 1953.................................. 1954................................. 1955................................. 1956................................. 1957................................. 1958.................................. 1959.................................. 1960.................................. 1961.................................. 1962.................................. 1963.................................. 1964.................................. 1965.................................. 1966.................................. 1967.................................. 1968.................................. 1969.................................. 1970................................. 1971.................................. 1972.................................. 1973.................................. 1974.................................. 1975.................................. 1976.................................. 1977.................................. 1978.................................. 1979................................. 1980................................. 1981................................... 1982.................................. 1983.................................. Total manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods 15,241 16,393 16,632 17,549 16,314 16,882 17,243 17,174 15,945 16/75 16/96 16/26 16,853 16/95 17,274 18,062 19/14 19,447 19,781 20,167 19,367 18,623 19/51 20,154 2 0/77 18,323 18,997 19/82 20,505 21,040 20,285 20,170 18,781 18,497 8,094 9,089 9,349 10,110 9,129 9,541 9,833 9,855 8 829 9 /7 3 9 459 9,070 9 480 9 /1 6 9,816 10 405 11,282 11,439 11,626 11,895 11,208 10,636 11 049 11 891 11,925 10,688 11/77 11,597 12,274 12,760 12,187 12,109 11,039 10,774 7,147 7,304 7,284 7,438 7,185 7,341 7,411 7 321 7 116 7 303 7 337 7 256 7 373 7 /8 0 7,458 7 656 7,930 8,007 8,155 8,272 8,158 7 987 8 102 8 262 8,152 7 635 7 920 8 /8 6 8,231 8,280 8,098 8,061 7,741 7,724 1Wage and salary workers Table 3. (Percent) Distribution of civilian employment by industry sector, selected years, 1950-83 Year Manufacturing Service-producing1 1950.................................. 1955.................................. 1960.................................. 1965.................................. 1970.................................. 1975.................................. 1980.................................. 1983.................................. 31.1 31.0 28.8 27.9 26.1 22.9 21.8 19.8 58.9 59.6 62.3 64.2 66.9 70.4 71.4 73.5 Other goods-producing2 10.0 9.4 8.9 7.9 7.0 6.7 6.9 6.7 1 Transportation, communication, public utilities, trade, finance, insurance and real estate, services, government, and miscellaneous. ? Farming, mining, and construction. 81 Table 4. Manufacturing employment by occupation, 19831 Occupational group Total (in thousands) Percent distribution Total manufacturing2....................... 19,947 100.0 Managerial and professional specialty..................................... 3,530 17.7 Technical, sales, and administrative support............. 3,812 19.1 Service........................................... 388 2.0 Precision production, craft, and repair......................... 3,815 19.1 Operators, fabricators, and laborers......................................... 8,297 41.6 Farming, forestry, fishing............ 105 0.5 1 Earlier data are not available due to changes in occupational classifications. As a result, data in this table are not comparable to data in table 33. 2 Includes wage and salary workers, self-employed, and unpaid family workers. Table 5. Employment in manufacturing by sex, 1960-83 (in thousands) Year Women Men Women employees as percent of total 1960.................................. 1961.................................. 1962.................................. 1963.................................. 1964.................................. 1965.................................. 1966.................................. 1967.................................. 1968.................................. 1969.................................. 1970.................................. 1971.................................. 1972.................................. 1973.................................. 1974.................................. 1975.................................. 1976.................................. 1977.................................. 1978.................................. 1979.................................. 1980.................................. 1981.................................. 1982.................................. 1983.................................. 4,371 4,292 4,474 4,482 4,537 4,768 5,213 5,353 5,490 5,667 5,448 5,229 5,470 5,865 5,849 5,257 5,607 5,880 6,237 6,466 6,317 6,341 5,990 5,981 12,425 12,034 12,379 12,513 12,737 13,294 14,001 14,094 14,291 14,500 13,919 13,394 13,681 14,289 14,228 13,066 13,390 13,802 14,268 14,574 13,968 13,829 12,791 12,516 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.4 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.1 28.7 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.7 31.1 31.4 31.9 32.3 Table 6. Occupational distribution in manufacturing by sex,1 1983 (in thousands) Occupational group Total Men Women Women as percent of total Total manufacturing............. 19,947 13,455 6,492 32.5 Managerial and professional specialty..... 3,530 2,852 678 19.2 Technical, sales, and administrative support. 3,812 1,791 2,021 53.0 Service............................... 388 315 73 18.8 Precision production, craft, and repair............ 3,815 3,252 563 14.8 Operators, fabricators, and laborers.................. 8,297 5,141 3,156 38.0 Farming, forestry, fishing............................ 105 104 1 1.0 1 Includes wage and salary workers, self-employed, and unpaid family workers. Table 7. Educational attainment in manufacturing by sex, 1973 and 1983 (Percent) Level of education All manufacturing employees Men Women 1973 Total Elementary ................ 0-8 years High school ................ 1-3 years 4 years College ................ 1-3 years 4 years or more 1983 1973 1983 1973 1983 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 17.1 9.5 17.0 9.4 17.5 9.7 20.6 42.7 14.3 45.0 19.2 40.5 13.3 42.1 24.4 48.1 16.5 51.3 11.1 8.4 15.9 15.3 12.6 10.7 16.6 18.6 7.3 2.7 14.3 8.2 83 Table 8. Import penetration and export proportion by major manufacturing group, 1973 and 1981 (Percent) Manufacturing group Export proportion^ Import penetration1 1973 1981 1973 1981 All manufacturing.................. 6.4 .84 6.6 9.9 Food....................................... Tobacco.................................. Textiles................................... Apparel.................................... Lumber.................................... Furniture................................. Paper....................................... Printing and publishing........ Chemicals.............................. Petroleum refining................ Rubber..................................... Leather.................................... Stone, clay, and glass........... Primary metals....................... Fabricated metals................. Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery............. Transportation equipment.... Instruments............................ Miscellaneous....................... 4.1 .5 5.3 7.3 9.8 2.8 5.8 .9 3.2 9.5 5.1 17.2 4.0 8.7 2.6 5.6 8.5 10.0 7.4 15.1 4.2 2.0 5.9 13.7 5.7 4.8 6.4 1.0 4.4 6.8 7.7 24.7 5.1 14.5 3.9 8.0 12.4 14.8 11.3 23.6 3.6 6.2 3.9 1.4 6.3 .7 4.3 1.3 9.4 2.0 3.6 2.4 3.2 3.6 4.1 16.3 7.8 10.1 13.5 9.5 5.2 12.7 5.9 3.4 7.3 2.6 6.2 1.9 12.7 1.9 6.3 5.4 5.5 6.7 6.9 24.0 13.5 16.8 19.0 12.1 1 Imports as a percent of product shipments plus imports. 2 Exports as a percent of product shipments. Table 9. Share of world export trade1 of all manufactured products and of technology intensive products,2 selected countries, selected years, 1955-80 (Percent) Country and product group 1955 1960 1970 1980 United States: All manufactured products................................... Technology-intensive products............................ 25.9 335.5 22.8 27.6 18.4 23.1 16.4 19.9 France: All manufactured products................................... Technology-intensive products............................ 8.8 36.4 9.1 7.7 8.3 7.6 10.2 9.0 Germany: All manufactured products.................................. Technology-intensive products............................ 14.6 317.6 18.2 21.2 19.8 20.4 19.8 19.3 Japan: All manufactured products................................... Technology-intensive products............................ 4.8 31.8 6.5 4.2 8.9 9.7 11.0 14.5 1 World export trade is defined as the sum of the exports of 14 or 15 of the most important industrial coun tries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2 As defined in this table, technology-intensive products are those produced by industries in which spending on research and development is 5 percent or more of gross product, and “natural” scientists, engineers, and technicians constitute 5 percent or more of total employment, or both. 3 Data are for 1954. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce. Table 10. Output per hour of all persons in manufacturing, 1950-83 (Index, 1950 = 100) Year Total manufacturing Durable goods Nondurable goods 1950..................................................... 1951..................................................... 1952..................................................... 1953..................................................... 1954..................................................... 100.0 103.4 105.3 107.1 108.7 100.0 101.9 104.3 105.6 106.5 100.0 104.3 104.9 106.7 110.6 1955..................................................... 1956..................................................... 1957..................................................... 1958..................................................... 1959..................................................... 114.1 113.3 115.6 115.1 120.6 112.6 109.0 110.8 108.1 113.3 114.5 118.0 121.2 125.0 130.7 1960..................................................... 1961..................................................... 1962..................................................... 1963..................................................... 1964..................................................... 121.4 124.7 130.1 139.4 146.2 113.6 116.3 121.9 129.9 137.0 132.3 136.6 141.4 152.7 158.6 1965..................................................... 1966..................................................... 1967..................................................... 1968..................................................... 1969..................................................... 150.8 152.4 152.4 157.7 160.5 142.1 142.1 142.6 147.2 148.7 161.9 166.0 164.9 171.5 176.4 1970..................................................... 1971..................................................... 1972..................................................... 1973..................................................... 1974..................................................... 160.1 169.9 178.4 188.1 183.7 146.5 155.7 163.3 169.3 164.5 179.8 190.3 200.3 216.3 212.7 1975..................................................... 1976..................................................... 1977..................................................... 1978..................................................... 1979..................................................... 189.0 197.4 202.3 204.1 205.4 168.8 178.7 183.5 185.2 184.5 219.5 224.9 229.8 231.8 237.0 1980..................................................... 1981..................................................... 1982..................................................... 1983..................................................... 205.8 212.2 216.5 225.8 184.2 191.0 193.7 204.6 238.6 244.0 251.0 257.1 85 Table 11. Output per employee hour in manufacturing, selected countries, 1950-83 (Index, 1950 = 100) Year United States Canada France Germany Japan United Kingdom 1950........................... 1951........................... 1952........................... 1953........................... 1954........................... 100.0 103.4 105.3 107.1 108.7 100.0 104.1 106.9 110.6 115.4 100.0 105.2 108.8 114.0 117.6 100.0 106.5 116.6 125.4 131.5 100.0 125.0 131.2 149.1 160.0 100.0 100.2 96.2 100.9 104.3 1955........................... 1956........................... 1957........................... 1958........................... 1959........................... 114.1 113.3 115.6 115.1 120.6 122.8 128.0 128.9 133.3 140.5 124.5 133.7 135.9 140.7 150.5 142.6 148.9 162.9 172.9 193.0 168.1 178.7 195.6 182.7 212.9 107.8 107.8 110.4 112.7 117.1 1960........................... 1961........................... 1962........................... 1963........................... 1964........................... 121.4 124.7 130.1 139.4 146.2 145.5 153.3 161.3 167.5 174.9 161.6 170.9 181.3 190.1 204.3 204.7 215.9 229.5 239.9 259.8 245.0 277.6 289.5 312.8 354.6 122.5 122.8 125.6 132.2 141.0 1965........................... 1966........................... 1967........................... 1968........................... 1969-........................... 150.8 152.4 152.4 157.7 160.4 181.5 187.7 193.7 206.9 219.1 218.3 235.4 249.8 275.9 291.9 277.4 288.7 305.6 327.7 349.9 369.6 406.9 466.9 525.6 607.2 145.4 150.3 157.4 168.8 172.8 1970........................... 1971........................... 1972........................... 1973........................... 1974........................... 160.1 169.9 178.4 188.1 183.7 222.2 238.0 248.6 264.3 270.2 308.6 325.6 344.9 365.1 378.6 359.1 373.7 398.4 422.5 444.9 684.5 727.7 810.7 893.8 915.6 176.7 185.3 198.7 212.5 217.1 1975........................... 1976........................... 1977........................... 1978........................... 1979........................... 189.0 197.4 202.3 204.0 205.4 263.2 278.3 289.3 293.4 301.6 393.4 422.6 445.2 471.4 492.6 461.1 492.2 512.1 525.2 549.8 951.0 1040.4 1114.9 1202.5 1309.4 215.1 226.1 227.2 230.1 232.6 1980........................... 1981........................... 1982........................... 1983........................... 205.8 212.2 216.5 225.8 295.1 302.7 295.3 315.3 500.1 513.3 541.9 574.7 557.4 570.3 580.3 606.9 1434.0 1513.4 1636.6 1729.8 230.1 245.2 252.6 268.1 NOTE: Data relate to all employed persons in the United States and Canada; all employees in the other countries. Table 14. Output per hour, output per unit of capital, and multifactor productivity in manufacturing, 1950-83 (Index, 1950 = 100) Year Output per hour Output per unit of capital Multifactor productivity1 1950.................................................... 1951.................................................... 1952.................................................... 1953.................................................... 1954.................................................... 1955.................................................... 1956.................................................... 1957.................................................... 1958.................................................... 1959.................................................... 1960.................................................... 1961.................................................... 1962.................................................... 1963.................................................... 1964.................................................... 1965..................................................... 1966.................................................... 1967..................................................... 1968.................................................... 1969.................................................... 1970.................................................... 1971.................................................... 1972.................................................... 1973.................................................... 1974.................................................... 1975.................................................... 1976.................................................... 1977.................................................... 1978.................................................... 1979.................................................... 1980..................................................... 1981..................................................... 1982.................................................... 1983.................................................... 100.0 103.4 105.3 107.1 108.7 114.1 113.3 115.6 115.1 120.6 121.4 124.7 130.1 139.4 146.2 150.8 152.4 152.4 157.7 160.5 160.1 169.9 178.4 188.1 183.7 189.0 197.4 202.3 204.0 205.4 205.8 212.3 216.8 225.9 100.0 104.9 101 0 104.1 94.2 101.2 97.8 94.7 85.0 94.2 93.2 92.0 98.3 104.0 108.3 113.5 115.0 107.0 107.0 106.4 97.2 97.7 105.6 114.5 105.4 94.6 101.7 105.8 107.4 105.3 96.0 95.1 87.7 92.7 100 0 103.9 103 9 106 1 104 0 110 0 108.2 108.7 105.0 111.9 112.0 113.6 119.4 127.5 133.4 138.3 139.9 136.6 139.9 141.3 137.5 143.6 152.2 161.8 155.4 154.0 162.2 167.1 168.8 168.7 165.0 168.3 167.4 175.1 1 For a discussion of multifactor productivity see Bulletin 2178, Sept. 1983. T re n d s in M u ltifa c to r P r o d u c t iv it y , 1 9 4 8 -8 1 , BLS 87 Table 12. Output per hour, output, and hours in manufacturing, 1950-73 and 1973-83 (Average annual percent change) 1950-83 1950-73 1973-83 Slowdown 1950-73 to 1973-83 Total manufacturing: Output per hour................ Output................................ Hours................................. 2.5 3.1 0.5 2.8 4.0 1.2 1.8 0.9 - 1.0 - 1.0 -3 .1 - 2.2 Durable goods: Output per hour................ Output................................ Hours................................. 2.2 3.0 0.8 2.3 4.0 1.7 1.9 0.7 - 1.2 -0 .4 -3 .3 - 2 .9 Nondurable goods: Output per hour................ Output................................ Hours................................. 2.9 3.1 0.2 3.4 4.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 - 0 .7 -1 .7 -2 .9 -1 .3 Sector and measure Table 13. Output per hour, output, and hours in manufacturing, selected countries, 1950-73 and 1973-83 (Average annual percent change) Output per hour Country Output Hours 1950-73 1973-83 1950-73 1973-83 1950-73 1973-83 United States............ 2.8 1.8 4.0 0.9 1.2 - 1.0 Canada...................... 4.3 1.8 5.5 .8 1.2 - 1.0 France....................... 5.8 4.6 6.6 1.8 .8 -2 .7 Germany.................... 6.5 3.7 7.7 .8 1.1 - 2.8 Japan......................... 10.0 6.8 14.8 6.2 4.4 -.6 United Kingdom....... 3.3 2.4 3.1 - 1 .9 -.3 -4 .2 NOTE: Data relate to all employed persons in the United States and Canada; ail employees in the other countries. 88 Table 15. 1973-83 Output per hour, capital effects, and multifactor productivity in manufacturing, 1950-73 and (Average annual percent change) Productivity Period Output per Output per hour of unit of all persons capital Inputs Multi factor product ivity1 Output2 Hours of Capital all persons3 services4 Combined units of labor and capital inputs5 Capital per hour of all persons 1950-83...................... 2.5 - 0.2 1.7 3.1 0.5 3.3 1.3 2.7 1950-73...................... 2.8 .6 2.1 4.0 1.2 3.4 1.9 2.2 1973-83....................... 1.8 - 2.1 0.8 0.9 - 1.0 3.0 .0 4.0 1 Output per unit of combined labor and capital inputs. 2 Gross domestic product originating in manufacturing, constant dollars. 3 Paid hours of all employees, plus the hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers engaged in manufacturing. 4 A measure of the flow of capital services used in manufacturing. 5 Hours of all persons combined with capital input, using labor and capital shares of output as weights. Table 16. Output per employee hour in selected manufacturing industries, 1960-83 Industry Wet corn milling1....................................... Malt beverages........................................... Synthetic fibers.......................................... Hosiery........................................................ Radio and television receiving sets2........ Fluid milk.................................................... Household refrigerators and freezers...... Aluminum rolling and drawing.................. Pharmaceutical preparations3.................. Corrugated and solid fiberboard boxes.... Household laundry equipment................. Ceramic wall and floor tile2....................... Household cooking equipment................ Mattresses and bedsprings2..................... Veneer and plywood2 ................................. Paper, paperboard and pulp mills............. Flour and other grain mill products.......... Household appliances, n.e.c..................... Cosmetics and other toiletries2 ............... Bottled and canned soft drinks2............... Petroleum refining..................................... Prepared feeds for animals and fowls1.... Tires and inner tubes ............................. Preserved fruits and vegetables2 ............. Motor vehicles and equipment................. Cigars.......................................................... Metal cans.................................................. Soaps and detergents2 ............................. Rice milling1............................................... Paints and allied products......................... Primary copper lead and zinc................... Concrete products2 ................................. Paper and plastic bags2 ............................ 1 1963-81. 2 1960-82. 3 1963-82. 4 1961-82. Average annual percent change Industry Average annual percent change 7.5 6.6 6.6 6.4 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 Transformers3 ............................................ Hydraulic cement...................................... Switchgear and switchboard apparatus3 Lighting fixtures4....................................... Beet sugar................................................... Copper rolling and drawing....................... Wood household furniture3...................... Upholstered household furniture2 ........... Metal household furniture2 ....................... Nonwool yarn mills2.................................. Gray iron foundries.................................... Brick and structural clay tile ..................... Sawmills and planing mills, general........ Bakery products2....................................... Metal office furniture2 .............................. Pumps and compressors2 ......................... Construction machinery and equipment2 Cereal breakfast foods3............................. Folding paperboard boxes5....................... Motors and generators2............................ Electric lamps............................................ Steel............................................................ Primary aluminum..................................... Wood office furniture2 .............................. Ball and roller bearings............................. Ciqarettes, chewinq and smokinq tobacco Vales and pipe fittings ............................. Hand and edge tools2................................ Blended and prepared flour1..................... Ready-mixed concrete2 ............................ Millwork2 .................................................... Fabricated structural metal2..................... Steel foundries2......................................... Metal-cutting machine tools..................... Footwear..................................................... Fabricated pipe and fittings2 .................... Metal-forming machine tools.................... 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 .9 .7 .7 .3 .2 .0 - 1.0 89 Table 17. Productivity rates before and after 1973, selected manufacturing industries (Average annual percent change) Industry 1960-73 1973-83 Hosiery.......................................................................................... Malt beverages.............................................. Synthetic fibers............................................. Household refrigerators and freezers......... Aluminum rolling and drawing..................... Pharmaceutical preparations1..................... Petroleum refining......................................... Major household appliances........................ Household laundry equipment.................... Radio and television receiving sets2........... Veneer and plywood2 ................................... Paper, paperboard and pulp mills ........................ Cosmetics and other toiletries2................... Fluid milk .................................................................................... Hydraulic cement ............................................................... Flourand other grain mill products.................... Wet corn milling3 .................................................................. Concrete products2 ............................................................ Corrugated and solid fiber board boxes ........ Ceramic wall and floor tile2 .......................... Prepared feeds for animals and fowls3....... Transformers1 ............................................... Mattresses and bedsprings2 ........................ Household cooking equipment................... Tires and inner tubes.................................... .... Switchgear and switchboard apparatus1 Household appliances nec........................... Cigars............................................................. Motor vehicles and equipment..................... Preserved fruits and vegetables2................. Soaps and detergents2.................................. Motors and generators2 ................................ Beet sugar...................................................... Bakery products2 ................................................................. Ball and roller bearings.................................................. Lighting fixtures4 ............................................................... Raw and refined cane sugar...................................... Sawmills and planing mills, general................. Clay refractories.................................................................. Wood household furniture2 ....................................... Farm and garden machinery2 ................................... Brick and structural clay tile .................................... Paper and plastic bags2 ................................................ Rice milling3 ............................................................................. Metal household furniture2 ....................................... Copper rolling and drawing ....................................... 7.1 6.6 6.5 6.5 5.8 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 3.4 5.0 5.2 3.0 1.7 2.7 -0 .7 3.1 2.6 6.3 2.2 2.4 - 1.6 5.0 0.7 2.7 11.5 0.2 2.9 5.1 4.1 2.0 2.2 3.8 4.4 0.6 2.9 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.4 Blended and prepared flour3 .................................... Gray iron foundries....................................... Glass containers........................................... Construction machinery and equipment2 ... Steel................................................................ Primary aluminum......................................... 0 . 0 1.2 0.4 -1 .7 0 . 0 2.2 1.6 0.9 -0 .4 0.2 - 0.1 -0 .5 3.7 1.0 3.0 -1 .1 -1 .1 0.4 2.6 - 0.2 0.4 0.6 Change 1960-73 to 1973-83 -3 .7 - 1.6 -1 .3 -3 .4 -4 .1 -2 .7 - 5 .9 - 2.0 -2 .3 1.6 -2 .3 - 2.0 - 6.0 0.8 - 3 .5 - 1.3 7.5 -3 .7 - 1.0 1.2 0.3 - 1.7 — 1.4 0.1 0.8 -2 .9 - 0.5 - 0.2 - 1.1 - 1.8 - 2.8 -3 .2 - 2.0 -2 .7 -4 .7 - 3 .0 - 0.8 - 1 .3 - 2.0 -3 .3 -2 .7 -2 .9 -3 .4 0.9 -1 .9 0.4 -3 .7 -3 .6 - 2.1 0.1 -2 .7 - 2.0 - 1.8 Table 17. tinued) Productivity rates before and after 1973, selected manufacturing industries—(con (Average annual percent change) Industry 1960-73 1973-83 Change 1960-73 to 1973-83 Pumps and compressors2 ............................. Paints and allied products............................. Fabricated structural metal2 ......................... Ready-mixed concrete2................................. Cereal breakfast foods1................................ Folding paperboard boxes5........................... Primary copper, lead, and zinc...................... Valves and pipe fittings2............................... Hand and edge tools2.................................... Nonwool yarn mills2 ...................................... Metal office furniture2.................................... Metal cans...................................................... Bottled and canned soft drinks2 ................... Upholstered household furniture2................ Electric lamps................................................ Steel foundries2 ............................................. Wood office furniture2 .................................. Cigarettes, chewing and smoking tobacco.. Metal-cutting machine tools......................... Fabricated pipe and fittings2 ........................ Footwear......................................................... Metal-forming machine tools........................ 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.7 2.7 - 1.0 - 1.0 2.3 0.1 3.9 0.8 - 0.1 2.7 3.1 4.2 4.8 2.4 2.7 - 1.8 3.5 1.0 - 2.7 -2 .4 0.0 -3 .8 -1 7 0.4 -3 .3 -3 .2 0.2 -1 .9 1.9 - 1.2 - 2.1 0.8 1.3 2.5 3.0 0.9 1.2 -3 .1 2.1 -0 .3 -4 .0 -3 .4 -0 .4 -4 .1 1 1963-73 and 1973-82. 2 1960-73 and 1973-82. 3 1963-73 and 1973-81. 4 1961-73 and 1973-82. 5 1963-73 and 1973-83. NOTE: Average annual rates of change based on the linear least squares trend of the logarithms of the index numbers. 91 Table 18. Output per employee hour and employment, selected manufacturing in dustries, 1973-83 (Average annual percent change) Industry Meat packing plants1 .................................... Sausages and other prepared meats1......... Fluid milk....................................................... Preserved fruits and vegetables1................. Flour and other grain mill products............. Cereal breakfast foods1................................ Rice milling2.................................................. Blended and prepared flour2 ........................ Wet corn milling2 .......................................... Prepared feeds for animals and fowls2....... Bakery products1.......................................... Raw and ref i ned cane sugar......................... Beet sugar...................................................... Malt beverages.............................................. Bottled and canned soft drinks1.................. Cigarettes, chewing and smoking tobacco. Cigars............................................................. Hosiery........................................................... Nonwool yarn mills1..................................... Sawmills and planing mills, general........... Millwork1........................................................ Veneer and plywood1 ................................... Wood household furniture1.......................... Upholstered household furniture1............... Mattresses and bedsprings1........................ Wood office furniture1 .................................. Metal office furniture1.................................. Paper, paperboard and pulp mills................ Paper and plastic bags1 ................................ Folding paperboard boxes............................ Corrugated and solid fiber board................. Synthetic fibers............................................. Pharmaceutical preparations1..................... Soaps and detergents1................................. Cosmetics and other toiletries1................... Paints and allied products............................ Petroleum refining........................................ Tires and inner tubes..................................... Miscellaneous plastics products1 .............. Footwear........................................................ Glass containers........................................... Hydraulic cement......................................... Brick and structural clay tile ....................... Ceramic wall and floor tile1.......................... Clay refractories........................................... Concrete products1...................................... Ready-mixed concrete1................................ 47 1 -4 4 2 O - 85 - 4 Output per employee hour 3.4 3.5 5.0 1.4 2.7 2.3 3.7 - 1.1 11.5 4.1 .4 2.2 1.2 5.0 4.8 1.0 3.2 3.4 2.7 1.6 - 1.1 2.2 - .4 2.4 1.0 2.2 3.5 3.1 2.4 -.5 .1 2.9 5.2 2.7 .4 - 1.6 2.7 -.7 4.4 2.0 .0 2.6 .7 -.1 5.1 .9 -.2 - 1.0 Employment - 1.2 .7 -4 .5 .0 -1 .5 2.0 3.9 .1 - 1.0 - .3 - .8 - 1 .7 - 2.2 -1 .5 1.0 .2 -9 .5 -.6 - 1.6 -1 .7 -.5 -1 .9 -.9 - 1.0 - 2.0 - 1.0 7.6 9.7 - 7 .8 .5 - .7 -4 .3 .6 1.5 2.7 - 1.6 .4 -5 .4 3.4 -3 .2 -2 .4 -1 .9 - 4 .7 - .5 -4 .5 -1 .5 .3 92 Table 18. Output per employee hour and employment, selected manufacturing in dustries, 1973-83—Continued (Average annual percent change) Industry Output per employee hour Employment Steel................................................................ Gray iron foundries........................................ Steel foundries1............................................. Primary copper, lead, and zinc..................... Primary aluminum......................................... Copper rolling and drawing.......................... Aluminum rolling and drawing..................... Metal cans..................................................... Hand and edge tools1.................................... Fabricated structural metal1........................ Valves and pipe fittings1............................... Fabricated pipe and fittings1 ....................... Farm and garden machinery1....................... Construction machinery and equipment1... Metal-cutting machine tools........................ Metal-forming machine tools....................... Pumps and compressors1 ............................ Ball and roller bearings................................. Transformers1 ............................................... Switchgear and switchboard apparatus1 .... Motors and generators1 ................................ Household cooking equipment................... Household refrigerators and freezers......... Household laundry equipment.................... Household appliances nec........................... Electric lamps............................................... Lighting fixtures1........................................... Radio and television receiving sets1........... Motor vehicles and equipment..................... Instruments to measure electricity1 ........... 0.4 .4 - 1.8 3.9 .6 3.0 1.7 4.2 -.1 - 1.0 .8 -2 .4 .2 -.2 -2 .7 -3 .8 .7 - 1 .7 2.0 .6 .0 3.8 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.7 .0 6.3 2.2 2.4 -4 .4 -4 .0 .5 - 8.2 - 1.1 -4 .5 -.9 -4 .1 1.3 1.0 1.8 6.5 -1 .4 - 1.2 - .5 -3 .6 2.4 -1 .7 -1 .9 -.2 .3 2.0 -4 .6 - 2 .3 - 1.1 - 3 .5 .4 -5 .2 -2 .3 5.8 1 1973-82. 2 1973-81. Table 19. Output and employment in selected manufacturing industries with similar productivity growth, 1973-83. (Average annual percent change) Industry Output per employee hour Household cooking equipment........ 3.8 5.9 2.0 Hosiery................................................ 3.4 3.7 .3 Tires..................................................... 4.4 -1 .4 -5 .6 Output Employee hours 93 Table 20. Output per hour, unit labor costs, and compensation per hour in manufactur ing, 1950-83 (Percent change from previous year) Year Output per hour Unit labor costs Compen sation per hour 1950.................................................... 1951.................................................... 1952.................................................... 1953.................................................... 1954.................................................... 5.4 3.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 -0 .3 6.4 4.6 3.7 2.9 5.1 10.1 6.5 5.4 4.5 1955.................................................... 1956.................................................... 1957.................................................... 1958.................................................... 1959.................................................... 5.0 - .7 2.1 -.4 4.8 - 1.1 7.2 3.8 4.9 - .9 3.9 6.4 5.9 4.5 3.8 1960.................................................... 1961.................................................... 1962.................................................... 1963.................................................... 1964.................................................... .7 2.7 4.3 7.2 4.8 3.5 .1 - .4 -3 .9 - .7 4.1 2.8 3.9 3.0 4.1 1965.................................................... 1966.................................................... 1967.................................................... 1968.................................................... 1969.................................................... 3.1 1.1 .0 3.5 1.7 - 1.1 3.4 5.0 3.5 5.2 2.0 4.5 5.0 7.1 7.0 1970.................................................... 1971.................................................... 1972.................................................... 1973.................................................... 1974.................................................... -.2 6.1 5.0 5.4 -2 .4 7.0 .0 .3 1.7 13.3 6.8 6.1 5.4 7.2 10.6 1975.................................................... 1976.................................................... 1977.................................................... 1978.................................................... 1979.................................................... 2.9 4.5 2.5 .9 .7 8.8 3.4 5.7 7.3 9.0 11.9 8.0 8.3 8.3 9.7 1980.................................................... 1981.................................................... 1982.................................................... 1983.................................................... .2 3.1 2.1 4.3 11.5 6.1 6.6 -.8 11.7 9.4 8.8 3.4 94 Table 21. Composition of price changes in manufacturing, 1950-83 (Percent change from previous year) Year Implicit price deflator Point contribution to percent change Unit labor costs Unit nonlabor payments1 1950.................................................... 1951.................................................... 1952.................................................... 1953.................................................... 1954.................................................... 1.9 5.8 1.1 1.9 2.2 -0 2 4.2 3.1 25 2.0 21 16 -2 0 _ 7 1 1955.................................................... 1956.................................................... 1957.................................................... 1958.................................................... 1959.................................................... 2.6 4.2 3.1 3.1 2.2 - .7 4.9 2.7 3.5 -.7 3.3 - 7 .4 - .4 2.8 1960.................................................... 1961.................................................... 1962.................................................... 1963.................................................... 1964.................................................... 1.5 .3 .7 - 2.1 .1 2.4 .1 - .3 -2 .7 -.5 -.9 .2 1.0 .6 .5 1965.................................................... 1966.................................................... 1967.................................................... 1968.................................................... 1969.................................................... .9 1.8 2.8 3.6 2.3 - .7 2.3 3.4 2.4 3.6 1.6 -.5 - .6 1.1 - 1 .3 1970.................................................... 1971.................................................... 1972.................................................... 1973.................................................... 1974.................................................... 4.3 3.1 .5 .3 9.0 5.0 .0 .2 1.2 9.5 -.7 3.1 .2 - 1.0 -.5 1975.................................................... 1976.................................................... 1977.................................................... 1978.................................................... 1979.................................................... 13.1 4.6 6.0 6.0 5.7 6.5 2.4 4.1 5.2 6.5 6.6 2.1 1.9 .8 -.8 1980.................................................... 1981.................................................... 1982.................................................... 1983.................................................... 7.9 8.0 4.7 3.3 8.5 4.7 4.9 - .6 -.5 3.3 - .2 3.9 1 Unit nonlabor payments include corporate profit and the profit component of proprietors’ income, as well as capital consumption allowances (replacement basis), net interest, and rental income of persons. NOTE: Figures in the second and third columns may not add to figures in the first column due to rounding. 95 Table 22. 1973-81 Output per employee hour and prices, selected manufacturing industries, (Average annual percent change) Industry Output per employee hour Prices Meat packing plants...................................... Sausages and other prepared meats.......... Fluid milk....................................................... Preserved fruits and vegetables.................. Flour and othergrain mill products............. Cereal breakfast foods.................................. Rice milling.................................................... Blended and prepared flour.......................... Wet corn milling............................................ Prepared feeds for animals and fowls......... Bakery products............................................ Raw and refined cane sugar......................... Beet sugar...................................................... Malt beverages.............................................. Bottled and canned soft drinks.................... Cigarettes, chewing and smoking tobacco. Cigars............................................................. Hosiery........................................................... Nonwool yarn mills....................................... Sawmills and planing mills, general........... Millwork......................................................... Veneer and plywood..................................... Wood household furniture............................ Upholstered household furniture................ Metal household furniture............................ Mattresses and bedsprings.......................... Wood office furniture................................... Metal office furniture................................... Paper, paperboard and pulp mills................ Paper and plastic bags.................................. Folding paperboard boxes............................ Corrugated and solid fiber board boxes..... Synthetic fibers............................................. Pharmaceutical preparations....................... Soaps and detergents.................................. Cosmetics and other toiletries.................... 4.0 4.5 5.0 1.2 3.0 2.1 3.7 - 1.1 11.5 4.1 .1 2.7 2.0 5.7 5.0 1.7 2.5 4.7 2.2 .8 -.8 2.2 -.4 2.2 .3 2.8 4.4 3.3 2.4 - 5 .4 3.0 6.3 2.9 .8 -1 .5 5.6 4.6 7.0 8.2 2.7 10.6 1.5 8.1 4.8 3.2 8.2 5.2 5.3 6.1 10.0 10.9 5.2 3.2 6.7 8.5 10.3 7.3 7.8 6.0 7.8 6.6 8.6 7.9 9.1 11.0 7.9 7.3 5.2 7.2 9.2 7.9 Table 22. Output per employee hour and prices, selected manufacturing industries, 1973-81 —Continued (Average annual percent change) Industry Output per employee hour Prices Paints and allied products............................ Petroleum refining........................................ Tires and inner tubes.................................... Miscellaneous plastics products................ Footwear........................................................ Glass containers........................................... Hydraulic cement......................................... Brick and structural clay tile ........................ Ceramic wall and floor tile............................ Clay refractories........................................... Concrete products........................................ Ready-mixed concrete................................. Steel................................................................ Gray iron foundries....................................... Steel foundries.............................................. Primary copper, lead, and zinc..................... Primary aluminum......................................... Copper rolling and drawing.......................... Aluminum rolling and drawing..................... Metal cans..................................................... Hand and edge tools..................................... Fabricated structural metal.......................... Valves and pipe fittings................................ Fabricated pipe and fittings......................... Farm and garden machinery......................... Construction machinery and equipment.... Metal-cutting machine tools........................ Metal-forming machine tools....................... Pumps and compressors.............................. Ball and roller bearings................................ Transformers................................................. Switchgear and switchboard apparatus..... Motors and generators................................. Household cooking equipment................... Household refrigerators and freezers......... Household laundry equipment.................... Household appliances nec........................... Electric lamps............................................... Lighting fixtures............................................ Radio and television receiving sets............. Motor vehicles and equipment..................... Instruments to measure electricity............. 2.6 .1 3.1 1.4 .0 2.6 -.3 -1 .1 5.0 1.6 .1 -.8 .8 - .4 - 1.8 3.2 -.1 2.1 1.2 3.6 .1 - 1.0 1.0 - 2.6 .3 .4 - .7 -2 .9 1.0 - .8 2.5 .5 - .3 2.6 2.9 2.6 3.0 2.4 .2 5.1 1.8 2.2 8.3 20.8 9.9 8.3 8.7 11.1 11.2 11.3 5.3 10.5 9.7 10.5 11.0 10.6 11.9 6.0 14.0 5.2 11.5 10.0 10.6 9.5 10.1 10.5 9.7 11.1 11.6 13.3 9.9 11.0 8.5 9.5 9.6 7.1 6.9 7.1 6.5 10.9 8.6 - .2 8.7 6.6 97 Table 23. Output per employee hour and compensation per employee hour, selected manufacturing industries, 1973-81 (Average annual percent change) Industry Wet corn milling............................................ Synthetic fibers............................................. Malt beverages.............................................. Radio and television receiving sets............. Fluid milk....................................................... Bottled and canned soft drinks.................... Ceramic wall and floor tile............................ Hosiery........................................................... Sausages and other prepared meats........... Wood office furniture................................... Prepared feeds for animals and fowls......... Meat packing plants...................................... Rice milling.................................................... Metal cans..................................................... Metal office furniture.................................... Primary copper, lead, and zinc..................... Tires and inner tubes.................................... Corrugated and solid fiber board boxes..... Household appliances nec........................... Flour and other grain mill products............. Household refrigerators and freezers......... Pharmaceutical preparations....................... Mattresses and bedsprings.......................... Raw and refined cane sugar......................... Glass containers........................................... Paints and allied products............................ Household cooking equipment................... Household laundry equipment.................... Cigars............................................................. Paper, paperboard and pulp mills................ Electric lamps............................................... Upholstered household furniture................ Instruments to measure electricity............. Nonwool yarn mills....................................... Veneer and plywood..................................... Copper rolling and drawing.......................... Cereal breakfast foods.................................. Beet sugar...................................................... Motor vehicles and equipment..................... Cigarettes, chewing and smoking tobacco. Output per employee hour Compensation per employee hour 11.5 6.3 5.7 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 10.2 10.9 10.9 10.1 4.7 9.4 8.2 7.8 9.0 9.4 9.3 9.2 6.9 11.3 10.0 12.3 10.2 9.4 8.5 9.6 9.8 9.4 7.2 9.9 10.9 8.7 7.3 9.7 9.4 9.1 11.0 9.0 7.2 9.7 9.0 10.2 8.9 11.1 8.6 9.7 13.1 Table 23. Output per employee hour and compensation per employee hour, selected manufacturing industries, 1973-81— Continued (Average annual percent change) Industry Output per hour Compensation per hour Clay refractories........................................... Miscellaneous plastics products................ Preserved fruits and vegetables.................. Aluminum rolling and drawing..................... Valves and pipe fittings................................ Pumps and compressors............................. Soaps and detergents.................................. Sawmills and planing mills, general........... Steel................................................................ Switchgear and switchboard apparatus..... Folding paperboard boxes............................ Construction machinery and equipment.... Farm and garden machinery......................... Metal household furniture........................... Lighting fixtures............................................ Concrete products........................................ Hand and edge tools..................................... Bakery products............................................ Petroleum refining........................................ Footwear........................................................ Primary aluminum......................................... Motors and generators................................. Hydraulic cement......................................... Gray iron foundries....................................... Wood household furniture........................... Paper and plastic bags.................................. Metal-cutting machine tools........................ Ready-mixed concrete................................. Ball and roller bearings................................ Millwork......................................................... Fabricated structural metal......................... Blended and prepared flour......................... Brick and structural clay tile ....................... Cosmetics and other toiletries................... Steel foundries.............................................. Fabricated pipe and fittings........................ Metal-forming machine tools....................... 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 .8 .8 .8 .5 .4 .4 .3 .3 .2 .1 .1 .1 .1 .0 - .1 -.3 -.3 -.4 -.4 -.5 -.7 -.8 -.8 -.8 - 1.0 - 1.1 - 1.1 -1 .5 - 1.8 - 2.6 -2 .9 12.5 9.4 9.0 11.1 9.6 9.9 10.3 9.1 11.1 8.9 8.1 10.8 10.1 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.2 8.8 10.9 8.0 12.2 9.3 9.6 9.7 7.7 9.2 8.7 8.2 8.3 9.3 8.0 7.8 8.9 7.3 9.4 8.6 9.0 99 Table 24. Hourly compensation costs for production workers in manufacturing, selected countries, 1960-83 (Index, United States = 100) United States (in dollars) United States Canada France Germany Japan United Kingdom 1960........................ 1961........................ 1962........................ 1963........................ 1964........................ 1965........................ 1966........................ 1967........................ 1968........................ 1969........................ $ 2.66 2.74 2.85 2.93 3.03 3.14 3.29 3.43 3.68 3.93 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 80 76 71 71 72 73 75 77 77 79 31 32 34 37 38 39 40 41 42 41 32 36 38 40 43 45 46 46 45 48 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 22 32 32 32 33 34 37 37 37 33 32 1970........................ 1971........................ 1972........................ 1973........................ 1974........................ 1975........................ 1976........................ 1977........................ 1978........................ 1979........................ 4.18 4.49 4.84 5.26 5.75 6.35 6.93 7.59 8.30 9.07 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 83 87 89 89 95 96 104 99 93 90 41 43 48 59 59 72 69 70 79 87 56 61 69 87 92 97 95 103 116 124 24 26 33 42 46 48 48 53 67 61 36 39 42 43 45 51 45 44 52 61 1980........................ 1981........................ 19821 ...................... 19831 ...................... 9.89 10.95 11.68 12.26 100 100 100 100 90 89 91 93 92 75 67 62 125 96 89 85 57 56 49 51 74 65 58 53 Year 1 Preliminary. Table 25. Output per hour, compensation per hour, and unit labor costs in manufacturing, selected countries, 1960-73 and 1973-83 (Average annual percent change) Country Output per hour Hourly compensation (national currency) Unit labor costs (national currency) 1960-73 1973-83 1960-73 1973-83 1960-73 1973-83 United States............ 3.4 1.8 5.0 9.0 1.5 7.0 Canada...................... 4.7 1.8 6.2 11.9 1.4 9.9 France....................... 6.5 4.6 10.0 16.0 3.3 10.8 Germany.................... 5.7 3.7 10.2 8.2 4.2 4.4 Japan......................... 10.5 6.8 15.1 9.8 4.2 2.8 United Kingdom....... 4.3 2.4 8.9 17.2 4.4 14.5 NOTE: Data relate to all employed persons in the United States and Canada; ail employees in the other countries. Table 26. Unit labor costs in manufacturing, measured in national currencies and in U.S. dollars, selected countries, 1973-83 (Average annual percent change) U.S. dollar basis National currency basis Country 1973-83 1973-80 1980-83 1973-83 1973-80 United States............ 7.0 8.4 3.9 7.0 8.4 3.9 Canada...................... 9.9 10.2 9.2 7.6 7.8 7.3 France....................... 10.8 11.0 10.5 5.0 11.8 -9 .3 Germany.................... 4.4 5.2 2.6 4.8 11.0 -8 .4 Japan......................... 2.8 4.5 - 1.1 4.1 7.2 - 2.8 United Kingdom....... 14.5 18.5 5.9 9.2 17.6 - 8.2 1980-83 Table 27. Capital investment as percent of output1 in manufacturing, selected coun tries, 1965-82 (Annual averages) Period 1965-82................................... 1965-73................................... 1974-82................................... United States France Germany Japan United Kingdom 10.5 10.0 11.1 15.1 16.5 13.6 212.8 14.3 311.2 21.2 25.3 17.1 13.6 14.3 13.0 1 Fixed capital and output measured in constant dollars. 2 1965-81. 3 1974-81. Table 28. Research and development funds, manufacturing companies, current and constant dollars, selected years, 1967-82 (Index, 1963 = 100) Year 1967.................................................... 1970.................................................... 1971.................................................... 1972.................................................... 1973.................................................... 1974.................................................... 1975.................................................... 1976.................................................... 1977.................................................... 1978.................................................... 1979.................................................... 1980.................................................... 1981.................................................... 1982.................................................... Source: National Science Foundation. Current dollars Constant dollars 128.1 140.5 142.6 152.5 166.2 179.0 189.8 211.7 233.7 259.6 297.0 345.6 404.0 459.7 116.1 110.1 106.4 109.3 112.6 111.5 108 2 114.6 119.6 123.7 130.2 138.6 148.1 159.0 101 Table 29. R&D funds as a percent of net sales in manufacturing companies perform ing R&D, by size of company, 1971 and 1981 Size (number of employees) 1 000 to 4,999.................................... 5000 to 9999 .................................. 10 000 to 24,999................................ 25 000 or more.................................. 1971 1981 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.7 2.1 } 1.9 4.6 Source: National Science Foundation. Table 30. R&D funds as percent of net sales in manufacturing companies performing R&D, and percent federally funded, by industry group, 1971 and 1981 Industry R&D funds as percent of net sales Federal funds as percent of total R&D funds 1971 Industrial chemicals.............................................. Drugs and medicines............................................. Other chemicals..................................................... Petroleum refining and related industries.............. Rubber products......................................................... Stone clay and glass products............................... Primary metals............................................................ 1971 1981 3.5 Textiles and apparel................................................... I timber wood products, and furniture.................... Papor and allied products.......................................... 1981 3.1 41.0 31.1 .5 .5 .7 .9 3.7 3.9 6.2 1.9 .9 2.2 1.8 .8 1.2 4.0 7.2 2.4 8.2 .4 .4 .9 0.8 1.7 (1) 0) 10.0 15.8 0) (1) 3.4 23.9 6.1 2.2 4.5 16.9 51.4 0) 54.2 79.2 22.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 (1) 7.2 14.4 (1) 0) (1) 0) (1) 20.5 12.5 10.9 37.9 (1) 37.8 22.7 (1) 12.9 (1) 72.6 17.3 d) 3.8 3.5 (1) (1) (1) (1) (D 16.2 5.7 Machinery.................................................................... Radio and TV receiving equipment....................... .8 1.4 5.2 6.8 (1) 9.6 7.4 0) 4.5 (1) 15.3 8.2 3.7 (D 10.5 (1) 6.4 .8 (1) 24.5 .4 (D (1) 0.0 Fleotronio components......................................... Motor vehicles and motor vehicles equipment....... Scientific and mechanical measuring instruments......................................................... Optical, surgical, photographic, and other instruments....................................... (1) Not separately available but included in total. Source: National Science Foundation. 6.4 3.1 (1) 17.5 102 Table 31. R&D scientists and engineers per 1,000 employees in selected manufacturing industries, 1982 Industry 1982 Total manufacturing.............................................. 35 Food and kindred products...................................... Textiles and apparel.................................................. Lumber, wood products, and furniture.................... Paper and allied products......................................... Chemicals and allied products................................. Petroleum refining and related industries.............. Rubber products........................................................ Stone, clay, and glass products................................ Primary metals........................................................... Fabricated metal products....................................... Machinery................................................................... Electrical equipment................................................. Motor vehicles and motor vehicles equipment...... Other transportation equipment............................... Aircraft and missiles................................................. Professional and scientific instruments................. Other manufacturing................................................. 6 3 (D 16 50 22 (D 14 9 15 40 52 32 8 102 (D 8 1 Not separately available but included in total. Source: National Science Foundation. Table 32. Employment growth in high-technology industries and in total manufacturing, 1982-95 (Numbers in thousands) Employment Projected 1995 employment alternatives1 2 Average annual percent change Industry classification 1982-95 1982 Low Moderate High Low Moderate High Total manufacturing........................................................ 18,781 22,580 23,110 23,753 1.4 1.6 1.8 Durable goods.............................................................. Nondurable goods....................................................... 11,039 7,741 14,051 8,259 14,284 8,827 14,751 9,003 1.9 0.7 2.0 1.0 2.3 1.2 Group I........................................................................... Percent of total manufacturing............................... 7,515 40.0 9,744 43.2 9,796 42.4 10,057 42.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 Group II.......................................................................... Percent of total manufacturing.............................. 2,532 13.5 3,518 15.6 3,410 14.8 3,453 14.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 Group I I I ........................................................................ Percent of total manufacturing............................... 5,143 27.4 6,789 30.1 6,757 29.2 6,920 29.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 High-technology manufacturing1.................................. 1 The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three definitions of high-technology industries: Group I includes industries with a proportion of technology-oriented workers (engineers, life and physical scientists, mathematical specialists, engineering and science technicians, and computer specialists) at least 1.5 times the average for all industries. Group II includes industries with a ratio of R&D expenditures to net sales at least twice the average for all industries. Group III includes industries with a proportion of technology-oriented workers equal to or greater than the average for all in dustries, and a ratio of R&D expenditures to sales close to or above the average for all industries. The definitions include manufacturing and nonmanufac turing industries, but for this table, only manufacturing industries have been included. Industries may be classified in more than one group. Fora listing of the manufacturing industries in each high technology group, see Richard W. Riche and others, “High Technology Today and Tomorrow: A Small Slice of the Employment Pie,” M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1983, table 1, p. 52. 2 Projections for employment in 1995 are based on three alternative versions of economic growth for the overall economy developed by BLS. The alternative assumptions are described in A.J. Andreassen and others, “Economic Outlook for the 1990’s: Three Scenarios for Growth,” M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1983, pp. 11-23. 103 Table 33. Projected changes in occupational employment in manufacturing,1 1982-95 Percent distribution Occupational group Percent change in employment 1982-95 1995 projections1 2 1982 Low trend Moderate trend High trend Low Moderate High Total manufacturing employment.............................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 19.8 22.6 26.0 Professional and technical workers............................... Managers, officials, and proprietors............................. Sales workers................................................................... Clerical workers............................................................... 10.3 6.7 2.2 11.8 11.7 7.4 2.0 11.8 11.5 7.4 2.1 11.7 11.4 7.4 2.1 11.7 36.3 32.8 11.4 19.8 37.0 36.0 15.5 22.5 40.3 40.0 18.8 25.8 Craft and related workers............................................... Operatives......................................................................... Laborers............................................................................ 18.6 40.2 8.5 18.6 38.6 8.1 18.7 38.7 8.1 18.7 38.7 8.2 20.3 15.1 13.7 23.5 18.1 17.0 27.2 21.3 20.7 Service workers................................................................ 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 14.9 17.8 21.1 1 Data in this table are not comparable to those in table 4. 2 Occupational employment projections for 1995 are based on three alternative versions of economic growth for the overall economy developed by BLS. The alternative assumptions are described in A. J. Andreassen and others, “Economic Outlook for the 1990’s: Three Scenarios for Growth,” M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1983, pp. 11-23. NOTE: Data may not add to total because of rounding. 104 Table 34. Projected employment in the fastest growing and most rapidly declining oc cupations in manufacturing, 1982-95 Percent change, 1982-95 Occupation1 1982 Projected2 1995 Total, all manufacturing................................. 18,848,278 23,110,229 22.6 Electrical engineers3 4 .......................................... Computer specialists3 4 ..................................... Electrical and electronic technicians3.............. Mechanical engineers3 ...................................... Mechanical engineering technicians3 .............. Instrument makers/assemblers......................... Designers............................................................. Machine tool operators, numerical control...... Industrial engineers3 .......................................... Miscellaneous machine operators, rubber and miscellaneous plastic............................. Aero-astronautic engineers3 .............................. Chemical engineers3 .......................................... Managers, other than restaurant, cafe, bar....... Electronic wirers................................................. Electrical machinery equipment assemblers.... Bindery operatives5 ............................................ Miscellaneous machine operators, food products other than meat and dairy............... Frame spinners.................................................... Miscellaneous machine operators, meat and dairy products.......................................... Data entry operators........................................... Drafters................................................................. Typesetters and compositors............................. Aircraft structure assemblers............................ Shoemaking machine operators........................ 162,705 124,110 137,737 118,759 36,945 28,788 43,131 66,090 120,387 263,889 198,928 219,591 176,632 54,584 42,127 62,397 95,496 173,609 62.2 60.3 59.4 48.7 47.7 46.3 44.7 44.5 44.2 189,738 29,122 34,030 1,258,855 36,977 98,643 73,611 266,209 40,442 46,754 1,712,663 49,601 132,144 73,007 40.3 38.9 37.4 36.0 34.1 34.0 - 0.8 51,750 25,725 50,365 24,784 -2 .7 -3 .7 42,448 51,327 112,171 84,721 33,266 51,517 39,917 46,786 101,425 74,136 26,150 35,976 - 6.0 - 8.8 -9 .6 -1 2 .5 -2 1 .4 -3 0 .2 1 Includes the 15 occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more which are projected to grow most rapidly. Also includes all declining occupations with 1982 employment of 25,000 or more. 2 Occupational employment projections for 1995 are based on the moderate-trend scenario of economic growth for the overall economy developed by BLS. For the three growth alternatives, see A. J. Andreassen and others, “Economic Outlook for the 1990’s: Three Scenarios for Growth,” M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1983, pp. 11-23. 3 Technologically oriented occupations as defined by the BLS. These are occupations in which most workers are involved in developing or applying new technologies. Their work involves in-depth knowledge of theories and principles of science, engineering, and mathematics underlying technology. For more information, see Richard W. Riche and others, “High Technology Today and Tomorrow: A Small Slice of the Employment Pie,” M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1983, pp. 50-58. 4 Includes computer systems analysts and programmers. 5 Includes assembly and stitching bindery workers and all others. U .S . GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1985 O - 4 7 1 -4 4 2 Productivity: A Selected. Annotated Bibliography ....... — U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 1984 Bulletin 2212 Productivity plays an important role in most issues of economic policy. Thus, there is a continuous need for information about pro ductivity to better understand the factors giving rise to variations in income, wealth, and employment, and in determining eco nomic policy. Covering the period 1979-82, the new edition of the Bureau’s annotated bibliography provides the source material for under standing productivity through a listing of 1,400 publications encompassing: • Concepts -Technological change • Measures and analyses -Research and — Total economy and the development private sector •Management and other — Industries organizational factors — Public sector -Energy, economies of — International scale, and other factors Factors affecting productivity • Effects of productivity change change on: — Work force characteristics -Prices and costs and education -Employment — Hours and schedules -Economic growth — Capital -Other economic variables — The following BLS regional offices will expedite orders. 1603 JFK Federal Bldg. Boston, Mass. 02203 1371 Peachtree St., N.E. Atlanta, Ga. 30367 Suite 3400 1515 Broadway New York, N Y. 10036 9th Floor Federal Office Bldg. 230 Dearborn St. Chicago, III. 60604 P.O. Box 13309 Philadelphia, Pa. 19101 Order form Please send 2nd Floor 555 Griffin Square Bldg. Dallas, Tex. 75202 You may also send your order directly to: 911 Walnut St. Kansas City, Mo. 64106 450 Golden Gate Ave. Box 36017 San Francisco, Calif. 94102 Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 copies of Productivity: A Selected. Annotated Bibliography, 1979-82, Bulletin 2212, GPO Stock No. 029-001-02831-8, at $7.00 each for a total of $ □ Enclosed is a check or money order payable to the Superintendent of Documents □ Charge to my GPO Account No------------------------------------------------------------------- □ Charge to my MasterCard* Account No. Expiration date □ Charge to my VISA* Account No---------- Expiration date. ‘Acceptable only on orders sent to the Superintendent of Documents. Name Organization (if applicable) Street address City, State, Bureau of Labor Statistics Regional Offices Region I Suite 1603 John F. 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