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Tables of W o rk ing Lire LENGTH OF WORKING LIFE Bulletin No. 1001 UNITED FOR MEN August 1950 STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Mau rice J. Tobin, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Ewan Clague, Commissioner m s of uioftNne lk Length of Working Life for M en Bulletin No. 1001 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Maurice J. Tobin, Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Clague, Commissioner For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C. - Price LO cents LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, Washington, D. C., July 5, 1950 THE SECRETARY OF LABOR: I have the honor to transmit herewith a report on the length of working life of men. This is the first of a series of studies, planned by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, of the length and pattern of working life of men and women in the United States, and of related problems of employment opportu nities for older workers. This report describes a significant and pioneering development in the techniques for analyzing the dynamics of the labor force. The research project upon which it is based was planned and directed by Seymour L. Wolfbein, Chief of the Bureau's Manpower and Productivity Division. The report was written by Harold Wool, Chief of the Branch of Manpower Stud ies in that division. The following staff members (and former staff members) also participated in the planning and develop ment of the statistical materials included in this report: Irving Gedanken, Lester Pearlman, Leonard Eskin, and Stuart Garfinkle. Prior to publication, the report was reviewed by a number of technicians, who made many helpful suggestions and criti cisms* Included were actuaries, demographers, and statisti cians, both in other Federal agencies and in private industry. Acknowledgments are due, in particular, to staff members of the National Office of Vital Statistics? Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration; United States Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Agricultural Economics; Railroad Retirement Board; and of the Statistical Department of the Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. Ewan Clague, Commissioner. Hon. Maurice J. Tobin, Secretary of Labor. CONTENTS Page Introduction .............................................. The table of working life: Males, 194-0.......... . Differential patterns of working life, 1940 ................ 1 2 14- Changes in the pattern of working life, 1940--47............ 35 The trend of old-age dependency.................... . 41 The rate of labor force g r o w t h ............................ 45 Occupational separation rates .............................. 49 Alternative measures of working life expectancy . . . . . . . 53 Technical appendix Detailed table of working life, 1940 ............ Abridged tables of working life, 1940 and 1947. . . 58 71 T a b le s Page 4 1. - Table of working life; Bales, 1940 .............................. 2. - Table of working life; urban males, 1940 ......................... 18 3. - Table of working life; rural males, 1940 ......................... 19 4. - Table of working life; white males, 1940 ............ 5. - Table of working life; nonwhite males, 1940 . . . . . . 20 ..................... 21 6. - Table of working life; urban white males, 1940 ................... 22 7. - Table of working life; urban nonwhite males, 1940 23 8. - Table of working life; rural white males, 1940 ................... 24 9. - Table of working life; rural nonwhite males, 1940 ........ ... 25 10. - Median ages of accession and separation for the stationary labor force, males, by color and by urban-rural residence, 1940 ..................................... 26 11. - Average number of remaining years of life, in labor force and in retirement, males, by color and by urban-rural residence, 1940 ............................ 29 12. - Abridged tables of working life, males, 1940 and 1947 .......... 36 13- - Average number of remaining years of life, in labor force and in retirement; white males, 1900, 1940; total males, 1940, 1947, 1975 .................................. 42 14. - Estimated accessions to the male labor force, 1940-50 .......... 47 15- - Estimated separations from the male labor force, 1940-50 ........ 48 16. - Estimated separations due to death or retirement from selected occupations, 1940-50 .................. 50 . . . . . 17. - Average life expectancy and work-life expectancy, at birth ....................................................... 54 18. - Average number of years remaining in labor force, total males, 1940, 1947 ......................................... Appendix table la - Detailed tables of working life, males, 1940 ................................ 56 59-60 Charts Page 1. - Stationary population and labor force, total males, 194-0..................................................... 5 2. - Annual rate of labor force accession, total males, 194-0.................................................... 7 3. - Annual labor force separations due to death and retirement, total males,194-0............... 9 4-. - Average number of remaining years of life and of labor force participation, male workers, 194-0................ .. 13 5. - Annual rates of labor force accession, males in urban and rural areas, 1940 ...................................... 15 6. - Annual rates of labor force separation, males in urban and rural areas, 1940 .............. ................ .. 17 7. - Average number of remaining years of life, in labor force and in retirement, raale workers in urban and rural areas, 1940 .............................. 8. - Annual rates of labor force accession, white and nonwhite males, 1940.................. 31 9. - Annual rates of labor force separation, white and nonwhite males, 1940.................................. -......... 32 10. - Average number of remaining years of life, in labor force and in retirement, white and nonwhite male workers, 1940 ........................................ 34 11. - Stationary labor force, total males; 1940 and 1947 ............ .. 38 12. - Five-year separation rates from the labor force, total males, 1940 and 1947 40 13.,- Average number of remaining years of life, in labor force and in retirement, selected periods, male workers, age 2 0 ................................ 43 14. - Labor force participation rates, nonwhite males in urban areas, 1940 ................................................. 66 TABLES OF WORKING LIFE INTRODUCTION The average expectation of life has for many years been recognized as a valuable tool for the public health specialist, the life insurance actuary, the demographer, and for others interested in measuring the progress of man in his control over his biological environment. In similar fashion, the average length of working life— and the ages at which men begin and end their work careers— are of vital interest to all those concerned with the working population and with problems of economic welfare. Since the 18th century, at least, scholars have been aware of the close relationship between man's life expectancy and his potential earning capacity. Thus Adam Smith, in discussing the higher wages paid to skilled workmen, in dicated that a highly trained worker should receive a reward, over and above the usual wages of common labor, "which would replace to him the whole ex pense of his education, with at least the ordinary profits of an equally valu able capital. It must do this, too, in a reasonable time, regard being had to the uncertain duration of human life . . . " 1/ In a period when life expectancy was relatively short, when living stand ards were low and when the great majority of workers were still farmers or small handicraftsmen, it could be safely assumed that all but a handful would continue in gainful activity until stricken by death or serious disability. For most men, a distinction between the prospective physiological life span and the length of working life would therefore have been meaningless. However, the emergence of a large aged and dependent group in the popu lation has made evident the need for separate measurement of the duration of working life. 2/ The spectacular advances in medical science, in publichealth services, and in general living standards during the past century have brought a steady lengthening of the average expectation of life of American workmen. But industrialization and related social and economic trends have progressively limited the possibilities of gainful employment for those workers attaining advanced ages. Thus a growing gap has emerged between the working life and total life expectancy of the average worker. The existing size of this gap and future changes in this relationship will be extremely important in determining the relative economic burden of public and private programs for supporting the dependent aged. l/ The Wealth of Nations, Book II, chap. 1 (p. 228). (This and other historical references are cited by Louis I. Dublin and Alfred J. Lotka, The Money Value of a Man, Ronald Press, 1930.) 2/ In this context, estimates of the "expected period of work" for gain ful workers were published by W. S. Woytinsky in Labor in the United States, Social Science Research Council, 1933 (pp. 261-263). More recently, estimates of "average number of years in the labor force" were presented by John D. Durand in The Labor Force in the United States, 1890-1960, Social Science Research Council, 1948 (p. 56). - 2 - The present report contains a brief description of the pattern ing life, differentials by color and residence, and the application tables to problems of old-age dependency, labor force analysis, and tional outlook. A technical appendix is also included containing a description of methodology. THE TABLE OF WORKING LIFE; of work of the occupa detailed MALES, 194Q A standard life table is a statistical device for summarizing the mor tality experience of the population during a calendar year or similar brief period. For this purpose, a hypothetical population is constructed, starting with a given number of persons (usually 100,000) assumed to be born at the same time. This initial group is then reduced at successive ages on the basis of the prevailing mortality rates, until the last individual has been accounted for. The resulting population is called the "stationary popu lation" because the number of assumed births each year exactly equals the number of deaths. From the stationary population, a number of related vari ables are computed. The most significant of tnese is the average number of years of life remaining after each specified year of age, commonly referred to as the "average expectation of life" or the "average life expectancy." A table of working life (like a standard life table) follows, through successive ages, the experience of an initial cohort of 100,000 at birth. In addition to showing the attrition caused by mortality, the working-life table shows the number and proportion of persons in the stationary popula tion who may be expected to work or seek work over the life span, i.e., the "stationary labor force." From this stationary labor force, are derived, in turn, the rates of entry into the labor force, the rates of labor force sepa ration, and the average expectation of working life, at successive years of age. The pattern of labor force participation over age described by the table of working life is based on observed experience at a particular time. It shows what might be expected for men of a given age, if the prevailing rates of mortality and of labor force participation should remain unchanged over their life span. Like the standard life table, it is not a forecast of future trends. The standard life table normally shows two "population" columns; the number of survivors at each exact year of age (lx ) and the stationary popu lation (l^) which i3 also identified as the number of man-years lived by the cohort from one exact age interval to the following one. For detailed de scriptions of the standard life table, see Dublin, Lotka, and Spiegeiman, The Length of Life, Roland Press, 1949» and Thomas N. E. Greville, United States Life and Actuarial Tables, 1939-41, (Sixteenth Census of the United States: 1940). - 3 - The other major assumptions underlying the table of working life and the definitions of the functions shown are discussed in the following sections, which describe the table for total males, based on 194-0 experience. (See table 1.) In addition, a more detailed table showing all of the pertinent functions appears in the Appendix on pages 59-60. Stationary Population (Column 2) The number of men who would survive at each year of age, of an initial group of 100,000 births under 1940 mortality conditions, appears in column 2. As shown in chart 1, the stationary population declines fairly sharply in the first few years of life, owing to the toll of mortality in infancy and early childhood. Thereafter, attrition is slow, gradually increasing during the period of youth and middle age. After the fifties, the decline becomes progressively more rapid. Since the emphasis of this study is on the period of working age, the stationary population is actually shown i,n the tables beginning with the age of 14 years, at which age, measurement of labor force status begins under current Census definitions. Prior to attaining age 14, the original cohort of 100,000 has already been reduced to about 92,000. By age 52, the station ary population has dropped below the three-quarter mark; by age 67, to only about half of the original group; and by age 78, it has been reduced to less than a fourth. Stationary Labor Force (Columns 3 and 4) Figures in columns 3 and 4 show the number and percent of men in the stationary population who are in the labor force, in each year of age, under conditions of labor force participation similar to those prevailing in 1940. In accordance with Bureau of Census definitions, the labor force includes, in general, all persons 14 years of age or over (not in institutions) who are employed or who are seeking work. ( J In its classification of the pop ulation, labor force activity thus defined takes priority over other types of activity or status (such as student or retired). Thus the labor force, at any time, may include a certain proportion of part-time or irregular workers i j Included also are members of the Armed Forces. Persons on public emergency work projects, except NIA student workers, were classified as un employed, in the labor force, in 1940 and other periods when such projects were being conducted. For detailed definitions, see the publications of the 16th Census of Population and for current periods, the Census Bureau's Monthly Report on the Labor Force. 902693 0 - 50 - 2 - 4 Table 1* - Table of working 21fet nale®, 1940 J iL b^ril* lliii r of mM0.000 auaauBBLMi population X to X * 1 JbL. Aeeeaalona to the labor fore® (per 1,000 In u z s s s u a a s E -i ___ w pb W pbI ______i f r Vtoti Percent fare___ of Tear of age Lx I* x 1000 Ax i p) r i_______ m______ tfiL. Separation® fraa the labor fore® ( n r 1.000 In labor foro®) Do® to E____ 2SSM ______ 1f i 1l 1000 < £ :t !1_________________! 1000 qJ asm pfI ____ !______ A9s£S________1>___ W T W W T t t * 1i 1000 Qx * 1_________________ : 2 *x 1: < ii . _ k 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 92,115 91,968 91,812 91,638 91,446 91,236 5,610 11,192 21,152 35,692 52,240 65,626 6 .1 12.2 23.0 38.9 57.1 71.9 60.7 108.5 158.8 181.4 147.7 86.5 1 .6 1.7 1 .9 2.1 2 .3 2 .5 1 .6 1 .7 1.9 2 .1 2 .3 2 .5 — — — — 52.2 51.3 50.4 49 .5 48 .6 47.7 46.6 4 5 .7 44 .8 43.8 4 2 .9 42.0 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 91,008 90,771 90,526 90,273 90,O il 73,354 77,686 80,690 82,646 83,824 80.6 85.6 89.1 9 1 .6 93.1 49 .7 35.4 24.1 15.7 9 .0 2 .6 2 .7 2 .8 2 .9 3.0 2 .6 2 .7 2 .8 2 .9 3.0 — — — — — 46.8 45 .9 45 .0 44.1 43.3 41 .1 40.2 39.3 38.4 37.6 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 89,741 89,463 89,177 88,883 88,581 84,383 84,705 84,828 84,789 84,643 94 .0 94.7 95.1 95.4 9 5 .6 6 .5 4 .4 2 .7 1 .6 .7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3 .4 3 .5 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3 .5 — — — — — 42*4 41 .5 40.6 39.8 38.9 36.7 35.8 34.9 34.0 33.1 30-31 31-32 32-33 33-34 34-35 88,271 87,953 87,619 87,269 86,902 84,409 84,132 83,812 83,452 83,060 95 .6 9 5 .7 9 5 .7 95.6 95 .6 .3 3 .6 3 .8 4 .3 4 .7 5.1 3 .6 3.8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 — — — — — .3 .5 .7 38.0 37.2 36.3 35.5 34.6 32.2 31.3 30.5 29.6 28.7 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 86,520 86,122 85,700 85,254 84 , T ?7 82,636 82,173 81,664 81,109 80,501 95 .5 95.4 95.3 95.1 95 .0 — — — — 5 .6 6 .2 6 .8 7 .5 8 .1 4 .6 4 .9 5.2 5.6 6 .0 1 .0 1.3 1 .6 1 .9 2 .1 33.7 32.9 32.0 31.2 30.4 27.8 27.0 26.1 25.3 24.5 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 44-45 84,268 83,729 83,160 82,553 81,901 79,849 79,162 78,442 77,681 76,865 94.8 94.5 94.3 94 .1 93.9 .. — — — — 8 .6 9 .1 9 .7 10.5 11.3 6 .4 6.8 7 .3 7 .9 8 .5 2.2 2.3 2 .4 2 .6 2 .8 2 9 .5 28 .7 27.9 27.1 26.3 23.7 22.9 22.1 21.3 20 .5 45-46 46-47 47-48 48-49 49-50 81,205 80,458 79,661 78,809 77,895 75,996 75,069 74,078 73,026 71,909 93 .6 93.3 93.0 92 .7 92.3 — — — — " 12.2 13.2 14.2 15.3 16.5 9 .2 9 .9 10.7 11.6 12.5 3 .0 3.3 3 .5 3 .7 4.0 . 25.5 24.8 24.0 23.2 22.5 19.7 18.9 18.2 17.4 16 .7 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 76,921 75,883 74,783 73,616 72,379 70,723 69,471 68,144 66,733 65,225 91 .9 91.6 91 .1 90.7 90.1 — — — — — 17.7 19.1 20.7 22.6 24.6 13.5 14.5 15.6 16.8 17.9 4 .2 4 .6 5.1 5.8 6 .7 21.8 21.0 20.3 19.6 18.9 15.9 15.2 14*5 13.8 13.1 55-56 56-57 57-58 58-59 59-60 71,076 69,704 68,261 6 6 ;7 2 65,177 63,620 61,902 60,057 58,051 55,828 89.5 88.8 88.0 87.0 85.7 — — — — 27.0 29.8 33.4 38.3 46.8 19.2 20.6 2 2 .0 23.4 25.0 7 .8 9 .2 11.4 14.9 21.8 18.3 17.6 17.0 16.3 15.7 12.4 11.7 11.0 10.3 9 .7 <0-61 61-62 62-63 63-64 64-65 63,528 61,800 59,909 58,099 56,129 53,215 50,469 47,512 44,272 40,704 83.8 81.7 79.2 76.2 72.5 — — — — — 51.6 58.6 68.2 8 0 .6 105.1 26.9 28.9 30.9 33.1 35.2 24.7 29.7 37.3 47.5 69.9 15.1 14.5 13.9 13.3 12,7 9 .1 8 .6 8 .0 7 .5 7 .1 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 54,080 51,955 49,757 47,493 45,171 36,426 32,354 28,604 25,177 22,058 67.4 62.3 57.5 53.0 48 .8 — — — — — 111.8 115.9 119.8 123.9 128.8 37.8 40.7 43 .8 47.0 50.3 74.0 75.2 76.0 76.9 78.5 12.2 11,6 11.1 10.6 10.1 6 .8 6 .5 6.3 6 .1 5.8 70-71 TBL— 72 72-73 73-74 « -7 5 42,804 40,390 37,946 35,472 32,971 19,217 16,652 24,341 12,266 10,410 44 .9 41.2 37.8 34.6 31.6 — — — — 133.5 138.8 144.7 151.3 158.7 54.2 58.1 62.5 67.5 73.3 79.3 80.7 82.2 83.8 85.4 9 .6 9 .1 8 .6 8 .2 7 .7 5.6 5U 5.2 4 .9 4 .7 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 30,445 27,906 25,369 22,855 20,391 8,758 7,296 6,013 4,896 3,935 28.8 26.1 23.7 21.4 19.3 — — — — — 166.9 175.9 185.7 196.3 207.7 79.8 86.9 94.6 102.8 111.4 87.1 89.0 91.1 93.5 96.3 7.3 6 .9 6 .5 6 .1 5.8 4 .5 4 .3 4*1 3 .8 3.6 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 18,005 15,724 13,571 11,568 9,732 3,118 2,432 1,866 1,406 1,039 17.3 15.5 13.7 12.2 10.7 — — — — 219.9 232.9 246.7 261.3 276.7 120.4 129.8 139.7 149.9 160.3 99.5 103.1 107.0 111.4 116.4 5.5 5.2 4 .9 4 .6 4 .3 3 .5 3 .3 3 .1 2 .9 2 .7 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 8,076 6,605 5,321 4,220 3,294 752 532 367 247 161 9 .3 8 .1 6.9 5 .9 4 .9 .. — — — — 292.9 309.9 327.7 346.3 365.7 171.0 182.0 193.0 203.9 214.7 121.9 127.9 134.7 142.4 151.0 4 .1 3 .8 3 .6 3U 3.2 2 .6 2U 2 .3 2 .1 2 .0 90-91 92-93 93-94 94-95 2,529 1,910 1,418 1,035 742 102 63 37 21 12 4 .0 3.3 2 .6 2 .0 1 .6 .. — — •• — 385.9 406.9 428.7 451.3 474.7 225.2 235.5 245.7 255.7 265.6 160.7 171.4 183.0 195.6 209.1 3 .0 2 .8 2 .6 2 .4 2 .1 1 .9 1 .7 1 .6 1 .5 1 .4 95-96 96-97 97-98 360 244 522 6 3 1 1 .1 — -• 498.9 524.9 552.7 275.3 284.7 293.7 223.6 240.2 259.0 1 .8 1 .4 .8 1 .1 1 .0 .5 91-92 , .8 .5 . CHART I STATIONARY POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE TOTAL MALES, 1940 Number Living, of 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 Born Alive 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 AGE U N ITE D STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR S T A T IS T IC S 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 - 6 - in addition to those who normally engage in full-time work during the entire year. Unlike the stationary population, the stationary labor force starts at a very low initial level at age 14 and then rises rapidly during the late teens and early twenties, when most young men normally begin their work careers. The stationary labor force reaches its peak in the late twenties, when about 85,000 of the initial group of 100,000 males at birth may be expected to be in the labor force. Between the mid-twenties and the mid-fifties, the labor force curve follows that of the population closely. During this age span (the "prime" of working life) nearly all men are normally in the labor force; the remainder consists largely of those unable to work or of persons confined in institutions. After the mid-fifties, the labor force curve descends much more rapidly than does the stationary population, as an increasing proportion of men with draw from gainful activity. The percentage of men in the labor force (column 3) thus drops sharply, from over 90 percent at age 50 to less than 70 percent at age 65. By age 75, less than 30 percent of the men remaining in the stationary population are also in the labor force. Labor Force Accessions (Column 5) In column 5, the rate of entry into the labor force between successive years of age is shown per 1,000 persons in the stationary population. It was impossible to determine this rate directly from available data, because precise measures are not available of the number of young people who start work each year. Many youth pass through a transitional phase when their attach ment to the labor force is casual and ill-defined: For example, high school students may work occasionally after school hours or during school.vacation periods, but do not regard themselves as "workers" until they enter on a yearround work career. The rate of labor force accessions was therefore determined from the net increases in the percentage of population in the labor force between successive years of age. Of course, to the extent that some young men shift intermittent ly between worker and nonworker status, these figures understate the gross rates of labor force entry. Since these rates are based on April labor force activity, they also exclude youths who initially work during the summer school-vacation period. 1 7 Moreover, the stationary labor force is based on a particular seasonal level of activity, i.e., that of early April, when the 1940 Census was taken. However, the April seasonal level is fairly typical of the annual average level of labor force participation for men in different age groups, except for school-age youth, whose labor force participation rises sharply during the summer vacation period. In 1947, for example, differences between the April and the annual average level of worker rates for men in various age groups, were 1 percent or less, except for the age group 14-19, whose worker rate in April 1947 was about 8 percent below the 1947 annual average. CHART 2 ANNUAL RATE OF LABOR FORCE ACCESSION* TOTAL MALES, 1940 14 15 16 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 - 3 - Most young men enter the labor force in their late teens (chart 2), but net additions to the working force continue until the late twenties. At age 14, only 6 percent of all males were in the stationary labor force, under 1940 conditions. The annual rate of entry rose sharply thereafter to a peak of 181 per 1,000 between attained ages 17 and 18, when many youths completed their high school education. After the 18th year of age, the entry rate dropped rapidly to less than 10 per 1,000 by age 24. Labor Force Separations (Columns 6-8) Separations from the labor force are classified as: (1) due to death and (2) due to "retirement." Separations due to death also include persons who leave the labor force because of illness followed by death in an inter val of less than 1 year. Separations due to "retirement" cover all other withdrawals from the labor force, whether because of disability, old age, eligibility for a pension, prolonged unemployment, or other factors. As in the accession rate, the separation rate— and, specifically, the retirement rate— represents a net figure after allowance for any reentries into the labor force between successive years of age. During the age span when the proportion of men in the labor force is rising (between ages 14 and 31) it is assumed that separations from the labor force are due entirely to death, and that retirements are statistically in significant. For ages 32 and over, both the rate and number of separations are derived directly from the year-to-year changes in the stationary labor force, and include both the losses due to death and to retirement. Separation rates per 1,000 men in the labor force, as shown in chart 3, remain fairly low until the late fifties, although they rise gradually. Be tween the ages of 55 and 65, they accelerate rapidly, rising from an annual rate of 27 per 1,000 workers for age 55-56 to 105 per 1,000 worker's for age 64-65. In the interval between attained ages 64 and 65 (which includes separations at the 65th birthday) the separation rate increases most sharply. After age 65, for those persons remaining in the labor force, the rate of separations continues upward, but at a slower rate. The pattern of labor force separations in relation to age can be ex plained by the separate probabilities of death and retirement. Mortality 'rises fairly evenly over the life span, although at a progressively greater rate. However, the probability of retirement remains quite low between the thirties and mid-fifties, and then rises abruptly between the late fifties and the mid-sixties. Between ages 53 and 59, the probability of retirements is at an annual rate of 15 per 1,000 workers; by age 64- 65, it is almost 70 per 1,000. The retirement curve continues to rise after age 65, but at a much slower rate. In turn, this contrasting pattern of deaths and retirements means that their relative importance as.factors in labor farce separations differs quite markedly with age. At -the younger ages, death causes the large major ity of losses from the labor force. During the sixties and early seventies, however, retirement is much more important in labor farce separations. After CHART 3 ANNUAL LABOR FORCE SEPARATIONS DUE TO DEATH AND RETIREMENT TOTAL MALES, 1940 PER 1000 IN LABOR FORCE THOUSANDS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Rate (or Probability) Number, of 100,000 Born Alive -1 0 the mid-seventies, mortality again is the main factor for the relatively few men remaining in the labor force beyond this age. The concentration of labor force separations, particularly of retire ments, within a relatively short age span is also indicated in chart 3. 6/ In termsof numbers, annual losses from the labor force due to death and retirement are at their maximum in the mid-sixties, but the retirement peak is much more pronounced. During the age span of the sixties, over half of the retirements of men from the stationary labor force occur, as contrasted to only about a fourth of the deaths. The sharp rise in retirements during the sixties is due in part to the progressive increase in the proportion of men no longer physically or mentally able to continue in regular employment. Thus, in the 194-0 Census, the per centage of men reported as unable to work rose from 6.4- percent in the age group 55-59 years, to 12.1 percent among men 60-64 years of age, and to 31*5 percent in the group 65 to 74 years of age. 1 / The increased incidence of disability only partially explains the abrupt rise in the retirement curve during the sixties. Available evidence indicates that the process of industrial superannuation is not identified with any fixed chronological age spanj it varies with the individual worker and the nature of his occupation. The above Census data suggest that a curve showing the pro portion of men who actually become disabled for gainful employment at succes sive ages would probably reveal an inherently smooth pattern of increase, similar to that of mortality. In considerable part, the actual ages at which men withdraw from the labor force, in our modern industrial society, are determined by a variety of social and economic factors in addition to the physiological pattern of aging alone. The age span of the sixties, and particularly age 65, has come to be accepted as the conventional retirement age for men in many fields of employment. Provisions of public and private pension and old-age assistance programs have reinforced this practice. For example, State old-age assistance laws, which antedated the Federal social security program in many States, generally established age 65 as the minimum for assistance grants to the needy 6/ The number of separations from the stationary labor force is shown in Appendix table la. 7/ Source: 16th Census of the United. States, 1940, Population, Charac teristics of Persons Not in the Labor Force, table 1. The classification of workers as "unable to work" in the 1940 Census was based on responses to the Census enumerators by individual workers or members of their household, rather than on any independent medical determination. A considerable proportion of workers who regarded themselves as "unable to work" under the relatively depressed labor market conditions existing in the spring of 1940 probably could have engaged in some gainful employment under more favorable circum stances; it is likely that many of them reentered civilian employment during World War II. - 11 - aged. This age was subsequently adopted under two major Federal old-age security systems, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance program, and the Rail road Retirement Act. 8/ An overwhelming majority of pension plans in private industry likewise establish age 65 as the initial age of eligibility for a full annuity, exclusive of disability. 2/ Prevailing employer attitudes and policies towards employment of aging workers are probably even more significant in determining the ages at which workers retire. Even under relatively favorable labor market conditions, some employers are reluctant to hire workers above certain ages, such as age 4-5, and observe formal or informal maximum age limits in hiring. As a result, older men, once out of work, often experience difficulty in finding new jobs, and some of them, after prolonged unemployment, cease to look for work. This is illustrated by 1940 Census returns. Following a decade marked by severe depression, partial recovery, and the sharp recession of 1937-38, about 8 million workers were unemployed in the spring of 194-0. Long-term un employment (as measured by the proportion of wage and salary workers seeking work for 6 months or more) was almost twice as severe among men 55 years of age and over as among younger adult workers. 10/ Lack of job opportunities probably had led many older men to abandon the search for work, although still capable of working, and they were therefore reported as "not in the labor force" in the 1940 Census. 8 / The Social Security Act establishes age 65 as the minimum age of eligi bility for a primary old-age insurance benefit. Under the Railroad Retirement Act, age 65 is the minimum age for a full annuity; however, the act also pro vides for disability retirements prior to age 65 and for the retirement of longservice employees between ages 60 and 65 at a reduced annuity. 2/ Of 376 group annuity plans surveyed by the Social Security Administra tion, 363 establish age 65 as the "normal retirement age" for men. However, optional retirement at an earlier age, under certain conditions, is provided for under most of the plans. Weltha van Eenam, Analysis of Recent Group An nuities Supplementing Retirement Benefits under Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, Actuarial Study No. 25, Social Security Administration, February 1948. 10/ Of all experienced wage or salary workers, excluding those on public emergency work projects, the following proportions in each age group had been seeking work for 6 months or more in March 1940: &g& gro\?P 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 years and over Percent 7.0 4.5 4.7 6.2 9.1 9.2 Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, The Labor Force (Sample Statistics), Employment and Personal Characteristics, table 35. 902693 0 - 50 - 3 - 12 - Life Expectancy and Work-life Expectancy (Columns 9 and 10) The "average number of years of life remaining" as shown in column 9 of the table of working life, measures the average, or mean, life expectancy of men at a given exact age, on the assumption that they will be subject in all subsequent years to the mortality conditions prevailing in 194-0. Simi larly, the "average number of years remaining in the labor force" (column 10) represents the average working-life expectation of workers, on the assumption that they will be subject through their lifetime to the prevailing rates of labor force separation 11/ (chart 4). By comparison of the two averages, at different ages, a number of con clusions are possible regarding the duration of working life. Under 1940 conditions, a young man beginning his work career at his 18th birthday could typically expect to live for an additional L$> l/2 years, or to age 66 l/2. However, he could expect to continue working for slightly under 43 years, or until age 61, before being separated from the labor force. He could, therefore, anticipate an average gap of about 5 l/2 years between his period of working life and his total, or biological, life expectancy. 12/ This absolute difference remained fairly stable, and even widened slightly until the early sixties, reflecting the relatively greater probability, at these more advanced ages, of survival past the conventional retirement age. At age 60, for example, the average male worker had an average life expectancy of 15 years, and could expect to continue working for an average of 9 years. After age 65, the gap narrowed rapidly, partly because a greater proportion of the men who continue in the labor force past this age are likely to remain "in the saddle" until they die. Both estimates of life and work-life expectancy, it should be emphasized, are meaningful only as averages for large population groups. Some small per centage of 18-year-olds, for example, are likely to die before attaining age 19j others survive and may continue working into extreme old age. Similarly, the gap between the total life expectancy and working-life expectancy is for an average situation. This difference, which may be defined as the "average retirement-life expectancy," includes cases of men who are separated from the labor force because of death (i.e., with zero years in retirement), as well i l l Since the average working-life expectation is computed only for men in the labor force at a given year of age, rather than all men in the population at that age, it is determined solely by the pattern of labor force separations, and is not affected by the ages of labor force entry. For a discussion of alternative methods of measuring this function, see pp. 53-55* 12/ In this and subsequent comparisons between the average life expectancy and the average working-life expectancy, it has been assumed that the life expectancy of workers, at any given age, is identical with that of all persons alive at that age. This assumption is believed to be reasonably valid for ages where almost all men are either workers or potential workers. For a more detailed discussion see Appendix p. 63. CHART 4 AVERAGE NUMBER OF REMAINING YEARS OF LIFE AND OF LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION MALE WORKERS, 1940 YEARS BUREAU OF LABOR S T A T IS T IC S - H - as those of men who may spend a protracted period of years in retirement. Under 1940 conditions, less than half of all men workers could expect to spend any significant period of their life outside of the labor force. For those men who did retire, the average span of retirement was considerably longer than the "average retirement-life expectancy" for all men workers of the same age. Thus, men workers retiring at age 65 would probably live in retirement about 12 additional years, provided their mortality experience corresponded to that of other men of the same age. DIFFERENTIAL PATTERNS OF WORKING LIFE, 1940 The conditions under which men live and work obviously influence the pattern of working life. Basic information is at present not available for direct comparisons among workers in different occupations or socio-economic groups, but separate tables of working life have been constructed for urban and rural residents, and for white and nonwhite workers, based on the 1940 data (tables 2-9). From urban-rural comparisons some insight may be gained as to the differentials between farm and nonfarm workers. 13/ Likewise, the comparisons between whites and nonwhites (predominantly Negroes) are re lated to differences in occupational distribution, income level, and other social said economic factors. These differences in the rates of labor force entry and separation and in the 'average length of working life are here summarized, separately, for urban and rural residents and for whites and non whites. Urban-Rural Differences Age at Labor Force Entry. On the average, men in rural areas begin working at an earlier age than do urban residents. Thus, at the age of 14 years, 9 percent of youths in rural areas were already in the labor force as compared with only 2 percent of the urban youth. Annual accession rates were higher for the rural male population until age 15-16 (chart 5) after which age interval urban youth entered the labor force in proportionately greater numbers. These differences are also summarized in table 10, which indicates a median age at entry of 17.1 years for youth in rural areas, as compared with 17.8 years for the urban group. Several factors account for the earlier average age of entry of rural youth. Agriculture, which employs about half of all male workers in rural areas, is still predominantly carried on as a family enterprise. Many teen age farm youths work on the family farm while attending school. Moreover, the low income level of rural families in many sections of the country, rela tive to urban levels, tends to place greater pressure on rural youth to leave 13/ In rural areas, more than half of all employed men in 1940 were en gaged in agricultural pursuits; in urban areas almost all men workers were in nonagricultural employment* Separate tables could not be constructed for men living on farms, as distinct from total residents in rural areas, since mortality statistics were available only for the latter group. CHART 5 ANNUAL RATES OF LABOR FORCE ACCESSION* MALES IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS, 1940 PER 1000 IN POPULATION U N IT E D STATES D EPARTM ENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS After age 14 - 16 school earlier than urban youth. Finally, child labor legislation and com pulsory school attendance laws, which limit the labor force participation of youth in cities prior to age 16, are not applicable to rural youth, to the same degree. Age at Labor Force Separation. Annual rates of labor force separation were higher for urban workers, as a group, than for the rural workers. These differentials reflect both higher mortality among urban workers and an earlier average age at retirement. Rates of separations from the labor force because of death wex'e consis tently lower for rural men workers (chart 6). As a result, for rural men the median age of labor force separation because of death was 61.1 years, about 3 1/2 years higher than for urban men. This difference appears to be due largely to the high proportion of farm residents among the rural group. Farmers, because of their relatively more healthful mode of life and their lesser exposure to contagious diseases, have characteristically experienced much lower age-specific mortality rates than city workers. y j Retirement rates for Urban workers were also higher than for rural workers at all ages. The contrast becomes particularly pronounced after the conventional retirement period, in the mid-sixties. Thus, between the age of 64 and 65, the annual retirement probability of 85 per 1,000 for urban workers was more than 50 percent above the corresponding rural rate. This difference was reflected, too, in the earlier median age at retirement of the urban worker: 65.0 years compared with 66.5 years for rural men. Like mortality differentials, the lower rates of retirement among the rural group are due to the importance of farming as a source of livelihood for rural men workers. The elderly man has much more scope for useful em ployment on the family farm than in urban industry. Consequently, a rela tively small proportion of farmers withdraw completely from the labor force while still able to perform gainful work; rather they tend to "ease off" by adjusting their workload to their physical abilities. To some extent, this same opportunity to adapt to changing capacities at advanced ages exists for the business proprietor or own-account worker in urban areas. However, only a seventh of all employed men in urban areas were self-employed in 1940, as contrasted to over two-fifths of the rural men workers. The overwhelming proportion of urban men were employed as wage or salary workers in industry, commerce, or government, and as such were subject to the social and economic factors influencing retirement, discussed in the preceding section. 15/ 14/ See p. 52. W Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, The Labor Force (Sample Statistics), Employment and Personal Characteristics, table 11 . CHART 6 ANNUAL RATES OF LABOR FORCE SEPARATION MALES IN URBAN AND RURAL A R E A S ,1940 Total Separation Rate PER 1000 IN LAB O R FORCE Death Probability PER 1000 IN LABOR FORCE 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 AGE U N IT E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T OF B U R E A U OF L A B O R S T A T IS T IC S LABO R 65 70 75 80 85 90 18 Table 2. - Table of working life* urban sales, 1940 111 _________ Tear of age x to x * 1 LsL)_________ L2)________ LA1__________ ill___________ ill__________ (21_________ LSI_________ (21_________ (101 Humber liv in g of 100.000 born a liv e Accessions to it Separations from the labor force Average number of remaining In labor force the labor force it (per 1,000 In labor force) _____years o f t (per 1,000 in !i Due to a l l In Percent of Due to it Due to Labor force Dotmlation DODulation) ir DODulation Number. . causes death ii retirement ii L ife DarticiD ation ii j i 1000 <£ 1000 A* it 1000 ii lo o o »x 8* ! ** ** iI li s IH nf In year of a « ) (At bevinnirL£ of year of aee) 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1 .9 2 .2 2 .4 1 .9 2 .0 2 .2 2 .4 9 2 .5 5 5 .0 3 8 .4 2 5 .3 1 8 .4 1 1 .3 2 .5 2 .6 2 .7 . 2 .8 2 .9 2 .5 2 .6 2 .7 2 .8 2 .9 8 4 ,950 9 3 .6 9 4 .5 9 5 .0 9 5 .4 9 5 .6 8 .6 5 .5 3 .7 1 .9 .9 3 .0 3 .1 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 3 .0 3 .1 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 8 4,745 84,473 84,1 6 0 83,7 9 3 8 3 ,3 8 4 9 5 .7 9 5 .7 9 5 .7 9 5 .7 9 5 .6 .4 .1 3 .6 3 .8 4 .4 4 .9 5 .4 3 .6 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .5 5 .9 6 .6 7 .1 1 .1 1 .4 8 .3 4 .8 5 .2 5 .5 5 .8 6 .2 8 .9 9 .6 1 0 .3 1 1 .3 1 2 .3 9 2 ,3 1 9 9 2 ,1 6 8 9 2 ,0 0 4 9 1 ,8 2 9 9 1 ,6 a 9 1 ,4 3 9 2 ,0 6 9 5 ,9 5 7 1 4 ,9 0 4 2 9 ,7 9 7 4 8 ,155 6 3 ,3 0 8 2 .2 6 .5 1 6 .2 3 2 .4 5 2 .5 6 9 .2 4 2 .2 9 7 .2 1 6 2 .2 2 0 0 .6 1 6 6 .5 9 4 .8 9 1 ,2 2 3 9 0 ,9 9 3 9 0 ,7 5 2 9 0 ,5 1 0 9 0 ,2 5 6 7 1 ,829 76 ,6 6 9 7 9,960 82,043 83 ,4 7 6 7 8 .7 8 4 .3 2 6 -2 7 2 7 -2 8 2 8 -2 9 2 9 -3 0 8 9 ,9 9 2 8 9 ,7 2 6 8 9 ,4 5 0 8 9 ,1 6 4 8 8 ,8 6 9 8 4 ,250 8 4 ,7 6 8 3 0 -3 1 3 1 -3 2 3 2 -3 3 3 3 -3 4 3 4 -3 5 8 8 ,5 6 4 8 8 ,2 4 9 8 7 ,9 1 7 8 7 ,5 6 8 8 7 ,2 0 0 3 5 -3 6 3 6 -3 7 3 7 -3 8 3 8 -3 9 3 9 -4 0 8 6 ,8 0 7 8 6 ,3 8 8 8 5 ,9 4 3 8 5 ,4 7 3 8 4 ,9 8 0 8 2 ,9 3 4 8 2 ,4 4 4 81,908 81 ,3 2 8 •8 0 ,7 0 3 9 5 .5 9 5 .4 9 5 .3 9 5 .2 9 5 .0 4 0-41 4 1 -4 2 4 2 -4 3 4 4-45 8 4 ,4 5 3 8 3 ,8 8 8 8 3 ,2 8 2 8 2 ,6 2 9 8 1 ,9 2 3 8 0 ,0 3 4 79,3 2 0 7 8 ,5 6 0 7 7 ,7 4 6 7 6 ,8 6 6 9 4 .8 9 4 .6 9 4 .3 9 4 .1 9 3 .8 4 5 -4 6 4 6 -4 7 4 7 -4 8 4 8 -4 9 4 9 -5 0 8 1 ,1 6 3 8 0 ,3 4 0 7 9 ,4 6 1 7 8 ,5 2 3 7 7 ,5 2 1 7 5 ,9 2 2 7 4 ,9 1 1 7 3 ,8 2 7 72 ,6 6 7 7 1 ,4 2 9 9 3 .5 9 3 .2 9 2 .9 9 2 .5 9 2 .1 5 0 -5 1 5 1 -5 2 5 2 -5 3 5 3 -5 4 5 4 -5 5 7 6 ,4 4 4 7 5 ,2 9 2 7 4 ,0 6 5 7 2 ,7 7 0 7 1 ,3 9 6 7 0 ,1 1 0 6 8 ,7 1 0 6 5 ,2 2 7 6 3 ,9 7 9 63 ,9 7 9 9 1 .7 9 1 .3 9 0 .8 9 0 .2 8 9 .6 5 5 -5 6 5 6 -5 7 5 7 -5 8 5 8 -5 9 5 9 -6 0 6 9 ,9 4 2 6 8 ,4 0 8 6 6 ,7 9 2 6 5 ,0 9 1 6 3 ,3 0 4 • 62 ,1 6 8 60,2 0 0 58 ,0 5 5 55,729 5 3,197 8 8 .9 8 8 .0 8 6 .9 8 5 .6 8 4 .0 6 0 -6 1 6 1 -6 2 6 2 -6 3 6 3 -6 4 6 4 -6 5 6 1 ,4 3 0 5 9 ,4 6 8 5 7 ,4 2 2 5 5 ,3 0 0 5 3 ,1 0 9 5 0 ,2 5 7 4 7 ,2 6 4 4 4 ,1 5 5 4 0 ,8 0 2 3 7 ,0 9 2 8 1 .8 7 9 .5 7 6 .9 7 3 .8 6 9 .8 6 5 -6 6 6 6 -6 7 6 7 -6 8 6 8 -6 9 6 9 -7 0 5 0 ,8 5 4 4 8 ,5 4 2 4 6 ,1 7 7 4 3 ,7 6 9 4 1 ,3 2 7 3 2 ,a 6 2 8 ,1 2 7 24 ,2 7 5 2 0 ,8 5 7 1 7 ,8 3 6 6 3 .7 5 7 .9 5 2 .6 4 7 .7 4 3 .2 7 0 -7 1 71t 72 7 2 -7 3 7 3 -7 4 7 4 -7 5 3 8 ,8 5 6 3 6 ,3 6 2 3 3 ,8 4 5 3 1 ,3 1 6 2 8 ,7 9 4 1 5 ,1 4 2 1 2 ,7 8 7 1 0 ,7 3 0 8 ,9 2 9 7 ,3 4 0 3 9 .0 3 5 .2 3 1 .7 2 8 .5 2 5 .5 7 5 -7 £ 7 6 -7 7 7 7 -7 8 7 8 -7 9 7 9 -8 0 2 6 ,2 9 5 2 3 ,8 3 9 2 1 ,4 4 7 1 9 ,1 3 7 1 6 ,9 2 9 5 ,9 5 1 4 ,7 5 5 3 ,7 3 3 2 ,8 7 6 2 ,1 6 8 17.4 1 5 .0 1 2 .8 8 0 -8 1 8 1 -8 2 8 2 -8 3 8 3 -8 4 8 4 -8 5 1 4 ,8 3 5 1 2 ,8 6 9 1 1 ,0 4 3 9 ,3 6 6 7 ,8 4 4 1 ,5 9 6 1 ,1 4 5 799 539 352 1 0 .8 8 .9 7 .2 5 .8 4 .5 8 5 -8 6 8 6 -8 7 8 7 -8 8 8 8 -8 9 8 9 -9 0 6 ,4 8 0 5 ,2 7 7 4 ,2 3 2 3 ,3 4 0 2 ,5 9 1 221 133 3.4 2.5 9 0 -9 1 9 1 -9 2 9 2 -9 3 9 3 -9 4 9 4 -9 5 1 ,9 7 6 1 ,4 8 2 1 ,0 9 2 80 63 10 9 5 -9 6 49 1 4 -1 5 15-16 1 6 -1 7 1 7 -1 8 1 8 -1 9 1 9 -2 0 2 0 -2 1 21-22 2 2 -2 3 2 3 -2 4 2 4 -2 5 25-26 43-44 r 1 85,000 85,061 77 42 21 4 2 — ” 88.1 90.6 2 2 .6 1 9 .9 — — __ — — — " __ — — — — — — — — — __ — — — " __ — — — — __ — -— ” — — — — “ — -- __ 51.0 5 0 .1 4 9 .2 4 8 .3 4 7 .4 4 6 .5 4 5 .6 4 4 .6 4 3 .7 4 2 .8 4 1 .9 a .o 4 5 .6 4 4 .7 4 3 .8 4 2 .9 40.0 42.0 3 9 .1 3 8 .2 3 7 .3 3 6 .4 a .2 4 0 .3 3 9 .4 3 8 .5 3 7 .7 3 5 .5 3 4 .7 3 3 .8 3 2 .9 3 2 .0 3 6 .8 3 5 .9 3 5 .0 3 4 .2 3 3 .3 3 1 .1 3 0 .2 2 9 .3 2 8 .4 2 7 .5 1 .9 2 .1 3 2 .4 3 1 .6 3 0 .8 2 9 .9 2 9 .1 2 6 .7 2 5 .8 2 5 .0 2 4 .1 2 3 .3 6 .7 7 .2 7 .8 8 .5 9 .3 2 .2 2 .4 2 .5 2 .8 3 .0 2 8 .3 2 7 .4 2 6 .6 2 5 .8 2 5 .0 2 2 .5 2 1 .7 2 0 .9 2 0 .1 1 9 .3 1 3 .3 1 4 .4 1 5 .7 1 7 .1 1 8 .5 1 0 .1 1 0 .9 1 1 .8 1 2 .8 1 3 .9 3 .2 3 .5 3 .9 4 .3 4 .6 2 4 .2 2 3 .5 2 2 .7 2 2 .0 2 1 .2 1 8 .5 1 7 .8 1 7 .0 1 6 .3 1 5 .5 2 0 .0 2 1 .6 2 3 .4 2 5 .6 2 8 .3 1 5 .1 1 6 .3 1 7 .4 1 8 .8 2 0 .3 4 .9 5 .3 6 .0 6 .8 8 .0 2 0 .5 1 9 .8 1 9 .1 1 8 .4 1 7 .8 1 4 .8 1 4 .1 1 3 .4 1 2 .7 1 2 .0 3 1 .6 3 5 .6 4 0 .1 4 5 .5 5 5 .3 2 1 .8 2 3 .5 2 5 .3 2 7 .2 2 9 .2 9 .8 1 2 .1 1 4 .8 1 8 .3 2 6 .1 1 7 .1 1 6 .5 1 5 .9 1 5 .2 1 4 .6 1 1 .3 1 0 .6 1 0 .0 9 .3 8 .7 5 9 .5 6 5 .8 7 6 .0 9 0 .9 1 2 6 .1 3 1 .5 3 3 .9 3 6 .3 3 8 .6 4 0 .7 2 8 .0 3 1 .9 3 9 .7 5 2 .3 8 5 .4 1 4 .1 1 3 .5 1 2 .9 1 2 .4 1 1 .9 8 .2 7 .6 7 .1 6 .6 6 .2 1 3 2 .3 1 3 6 .9 1 4 0 .8 1 4 4 .8 1 5 1 .0 4 3 .5 4 6 .5 4 9 .7 5 3 .2 5 7 .0 8 8 .8 9 1 .1 9 1 .6 9 4 .0 1 1 .4 1 0 .9 1 0 .4 9 .9 9 .4 155.5 9 4 .3 9 5 .0 9 6 .7 1 0 1 .6 1 0 7 .0 9 .0 8 .5 8 .1 7.7 — — — — __ — — — -— — .4 .7 .9 1.6 90.4 5 .8 5 .6 5 .4 5 .2 5 .0 — — — -- 1 6 0 .9 1 6 7 .8 1 7 8 .0 1 8 9 .2 6 1 .2 6 5 .9 7 1 .1 7 6 .4 8 2 .2 __ — — — — 2 0 1 .0 2 1 4 .9 2 2 9 .6 2 4 6 .2 2 6 3 .8 8 8 .1 9 4 .2 1 0 0 .8 1 0 7 .4 1 1 4 .5 1 1 2 .9 1 2 0 .7 1 2 8 .8 1 3 8 .8 1 4 9 .3 6 .9 6 .5 6 .2 5 .8 — — — " 2 8 2 .6 3 0 2 .2 3 2 5 .4 3 4 6 .9 3 7 2 .3 1 2 1 .9 1 2 9 .7 1 3 7 .6 1 4 6 .2 1 5 5 .0 1 6 0 .7 1 7 2 .5 1 8 7 .8 2 0 0 .7 2 1 7 .3 5 .2 4 .9 4 .6 4 .3 4 .0 1.9 398.2 4 2 1 .1 4 5 7 .7 4 9 1 .1 5 2 9 .4 1 6 3 .9 1 7 3 .5 1 8 1 .7 1 9 0 .6 1 9 8 .1 2 3 4 .3 2 4 7 .6 2 7 6 .0 3 0 0 .5 3 3 1 .3 3 .7 3 .4 3 .1 2 .8 2 .5 1 *5 1 .3 1 .2 5 5 5 .3 5 7 5 .1 2 0 6 .4 2 1 5 .9 3 4 8 .9 3 5 9 .2 .8 __ — — — ” .5 .3 .2 — " — — — — 1 .8 1 .2 2.0 — — — " — — — - — — — — — — - 7 .7 7 .3 5.5 2 .1 1.6 1.0 .3 .2 .9 4 .8 4.4 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .5 3 .2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2 .4 2 .3 2 .1 1 .8 1.6 1.0 .9 .7 — " - 19 fable 3. - Table of working life: rural aalea, 1940 (2 ) (4) (3) ____»uaber liv in g of 100.000 born a liv e (1) Tear o f ago x to * ♦ 1 Percent of In i I t I* I* * *x * -<5> Accessions to the labor force (per 1,000 in population) 1000 Ax (8) (7) (6) Separations from the labor force (per 1,000 in labor fo rce) Dae to e l l Due to 1 Due to causes death 11 retirement 1000 £ 1000 o£ _____ (Between reiir s o f ace) r <t 11 1000 <£ ..... _ 1 1t ! 1 do) (9) Average nuaber of remaining years oft 1i Labor force L ife 11 pa rticip a tio n i' *x ■ i: 11 11 ___ fAt beginning of year of ace) 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-16 18-19 19-20 91,990 91,850 91,690 91,516 91,329 91,123 8,649 16,427 27,573 U , 778 56,681 68,329 17.9 30.1 45.7 62.1 75.0 9 .4 84.7 121.7 155.5 163.8 129.0 79.7 1.5 1 .7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.5 1 .7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 — — — — " 54.0 53.1 52.2 51.3 50.4 49.5 48.3 47.4 46.4 45.5 44.6 43.7 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 90,899 90,659 90,414 90,157 89,887 75,418 79,289 81,742 83,213 84,032 83.0 87.5 90.4 92.3 93.5 44.8 29.4 18.8 11.9 7.4 2 .7 2 .7 2.8 3.0 3.0 2 .7 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 — — — — " 48.6 47.7 46.9 46.0 45.1 42.8 41.9 41.0 40.1 39.3 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 89,615 89,333 89,045 88,747 88,448 84,449 84,607 84,592 84,489 84,309 94.2 94.7 95.0 95.2 95.3 4.7 2.9 2.0 1.2 .6 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 — — — — 44.3 43.4 42.5 41.7 40.8 38.4 37.5 36.6 35.7 34.9 30-31 31-32 32-33 33-34 34-35 88,142 87,834 87,510 87.177 86,836 84,066 83,803 83,501 83,176 82,825 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.4 95.4 .4 .1 — — " 3.5 3 .7 3.9 4.2 4.5 3.5 3 .7 3.8 3.9 4.0 — — .1 .3 ’ .5 40.0 39.1 38.2 37.4 36.5 34.0 33.1 • 32.2 31.3 30.5 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 86,488 86,121 85,737 85,342 84,930 82,449 82,035 81,583 81,093 80,567 95.3 95.3 95.2 95.0 94.9 __ — — — — 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.5 7.0 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.2 .8 1.1 1.4 1 .7 1.8 35.7 34.8 34.0 33.1 32.3 29.6 28.7 27.9 27.0 26.2 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 44-45 84,491 84,027 83,538 83,022 82,474 80,003 79,402 78,763 78,094 77,390 94.7 94.5 94.3 94.1 93.8 — — — 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 31.4 30.6 29.8 28.9 28.1 25.4 24.6 23.7 22.9 22.1 45-46 46-47 47-48 48-49 49-5C 81,896 81,285 80,634 79,946 79,212 76,652 75,880 75,068 74,212 73,303 93.6 93.4 93.1 92.8 92.5 __ — — — ~ 10.1 10.7 11.4 12.3 13.1 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.2 9.9 2.6 2 .7 2.9 3.1 3.2 27.3 26.5 25.7 24.9 24.1 21.3 20.5 19.8 19.0 18.2 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 78,424 77,582 76,684 75,731 74,719 72,337 71,310 70,225 69,083 67,883 92.2 91.9 91.6 91.2 90.9 __ — — ~ 14.2 15.2 16.2 17.4 18.7 10.7 11.6 12.4 13.4 14.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.3 23.4 22.6 21.8 21.1 20.4 17.4 16.7 15.9 15.1 14-4 55-56 56-57 57-58 58-59 59-60 73,644 72,505 71,299 70,021 68,679 66,616 65,246 63,756 62,099 60,207 90.5 90.0 89.4 88.7 87.7 __ — — — — 20.6 22.8 26.0 30.5 37.2 15.5 16.5 17.8 19.1 20.2 5.1 6.3 8.2 11.4 17.0 19.6 18.9 18.2 17.6 16.9 13.6 12.9 12.2 11.5 10.8 60-61 61-62 <8-63 63-64 64-65 67,277 65,799 64,242 62,604 60,882 57,968 55,524 52,736 49,591 46^121 86.2 84.4 82.1 79.2 75.8 — — — — ” 42.2 50.2 59.6 70.0 83.9 21.8 23.4 25.1 26.9 28.9 20.4 26.8 34.5 43.1 55.0 16.2 15.5 14.9 14.3 13.6 10.1 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 59,073 57,174 55,189 53,119 50,959 42,249 38,366 34,647 31,131 27,828 71.5 67.1 62.8 58.6 54.6 — — — — — 91.9 96.9 101.5 106.1 111.4 31.1 33.6 36.3 39.3 42.5 60.8 63.3 65.2 66.8 68.9 13.0 12.4 11.8 11.3 10.7 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.5 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 48,715 46,377 43,945 41,425 38,829 24,727 21*862 19,213 16,772 14,536 50.8 47.1 43.7 40.5 37.4 __ — — — 115.9 121.1 127.0 133.4 140.3 46.3 50.6 55.2 60.4 66.1 69.6 70.5 71.8 73.0 74.2 10.1 9.6 9.1 8*6 8 .1 6.2 5.9> 5.7 5.4 5.2 75*76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 36,163 33,441 30,677 27,888 25,1000 12,497 10,649 8,983 7,492 6,164 34.6 31.8 29.3 26.9 24.6 147.9 156.5 166.0 177.3 189.7 72.5 79.5 87.3 95.9 105.6 75.4 77.0 78.7 81.4 84.1 7 .6 7 .2 6 .7 6 .3 6 .0 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.9 80-81 81-82 82-83 83*84 84-85 22,333 19,626 17,024 14,570 12,301 4,996 3,979 3,113 2,388 1,795 22.4 20.3 18.3 16.4 14.6 — — — 203.9 218.4 233.3 248.3 263.9 115.9 126.5 137.2 147.9 158.8 88.0 91.9 96.1 100.4 105.1 5.6 5 .3 4 .9 4 .7 4 .4 3 .7 3^ 3.2 3.0 2.8 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 10,239 8,399 6,785 5,398 4,229 1,320 948 665 454 302 12.9 11.3 9.8 M 7.1 __ — — — “ 280.9 298.6 317.2 334.9 361.0 169.7 180.9 191.6 202.2 211.8 111.2 117.7 125.6 132.7 149.2 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .5 3 .3 2 .7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 90*91 91-98 92-93 93-94 94-95 3,261 2,474 1,847 1,357 980 193 120 71 40 22 5.9 4.8 3.8* 3.0 2.2 .. — — — ” 378.2 408.3 434.3 463.2 490.7 222.5 230.9 239.5 247.9 256.fr 155.7 177.4 194.8 215.3 233.9 3 .1 2 .9 2 .8 2 .6 2 .4 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 695 485 333 225 59 11 5 2 1 1.6 1.1 .7 .4 __ — — — 527.4 550.8 571.4 — 262.1 269.3 276.4 — 265.3 281.5 295.0 2 .1 1 .9 1 .5 1 .0 .4 1.2 1.0 .8 •5 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-100 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 902693 0 - 50 - 4 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis • — — — — ■ __ 20 Table 4. ( 1) Tear or age ».-Batter. UtI m gf 1W.QW torn aJ*L llit In labor force t t x t o x H U - 15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 2 0 -2 1 2 1-2 2 22-23 23-24 24-25 2 5 -2 6 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 31-32 32-33 33-34 34-35 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 (3) (2) In popnlatlon Percent of ___ Hunber___s population____ - Table of working life* vi-ite ..Tales, 1940 J5L Accessions to i (per 1,0 0 0 in noDulation) it ii « i JZL Due to a l l causes 1000 Ax iooo q| __________________ 1 ____________________ :____ (Between I* : ____________LI* re ar o f a*e 4<9 56.9 10 .6 2 1 .0 103.8 91,784 91,582 91,381 91,171 90,952 73,594 78,287 83,472 84,740 80.2 85.5 89.1 91.6 93.2 90,734 90,507 90,272 85,410 85,795 85,979 86,009 85,921 94.1 94.8 95.2 95.5 95.7 4 .5 2.9 1.7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .8 .8 2.9 85,744 85,514 85,251 84,953 84,622 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.8 95.7 .3 V— — " 3.0 3 .1 3 .5 3.9 4.3 84,258 83,854 83,401 82,901 82,354 95.7 95.6 95.4 95.3 95.1 — — — — 4.8 5.4 94.9 94.7 94.5 94.3 94.0 — — — — — 93.7 93.5 93.2 — — — — ““ 1 1 .1 1 2 .0 1 3 .0 .. — — — — 16.5 17.9 19.5 21.4 26.1 28.9 32.4 37.3 90,028 89,780 89,524 89,260 88,988 88,703 88,401 88,087 87,751 87,388 87,003 86,594 81,448 36.9 55.7 71.0 1.4 1 .6 1 .7 1 .8 1 .8 9 1.6 1.9 1.9 2 .1 2 .1 52.9 36.4 2 .2 2 .2 2 .2 2 .2 9.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 6 .6 2 .5 ,2 ; 5 2 4 .2 1 6 .1 6 .0 6 .6 7 .1 7.6 45-46 46-47 47-48 48-49 49-50 83,443 82,763 80,406 78,219 77,351 76,423 75,430 74,366' 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 79,501 78,531 77,494 76,394 75,225 73,228 72,020 70,731 69,352 67,868 92.1 91.7 91.3 55-56 56-57 57-58 58-59 59-60 73,976 72,644 71,235 69,746 68,177 66,266 64,536 62,671 89.6 88.8 88.0 60,640 58,378 86.9 85.6 — — — — — 60-61 62-63 63-64 64-65 66,520 64,777 62,944 61,018 58,998 55,693 52,864 49,798 46,417 42,667 83.7 81.6 79.1 76.1 72.3 '~ — — — — 106.4 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 56,892 54,696 52,421 50,067 47,639 38,127 33,830 29,896 26,294 23,023 67.0 61.9 57.0 52.5 48.3 — — — — 112.7 116.3 . 120.5 124.4 129.9 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 45,147 42,601 40,019 37,402 34,750 20,032 17,346 14,935 12,769 10,822 44.4 40.7 37.3 34.1 31.1 — “ — — ““ 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 32,071 29,377 26,689 24,031 21,426 9,083 7,549 6,212 5,052 4,055 28.3 25.7 23.3 21.0 18.9 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 18,902 16,486 14,204 12,078 10,126 3,206 2,494 1,906 1,430 1,052 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 8,363 6,799 5,438 4,275 3,301 90-91 91-92 92-93 9 3-94 94-95 2,502 1,861 1,358 971 680 82,030 81,247 467 314 207 81,769 81,148 80,491 79,791 79,033 9 2.8 92.5 9 0.8 9 0 .2 1.4 1 .6 1.7 86,161 85,691 85,190 84,649 84,069 95-96 96-97 97-98 it Due to i> retirement 1 r iooo o j jt 1000 Qx ________________I! rears of age) 4,552 9,823 19,422 34,065 51,332 65,306 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 44-45 61-62 Due to death 92,753 92,623 92,475 92,318 92,152 91,977 158.7 187.7 152.7 (8) ( 6) Separations froa the labor force 8 .1 8.7 9 .5 10.3 14.1 15.3 2 3 .6 J2L 12£L Average nuaber o f remaining i i 1 < t L ife t t S* • t 53.2 52.3 51.4 50.5 49.6 — — — 48.6 — — — — ” 47.7 Labor foroe n a r t id nation K 47.4 46.4 45.5 44.6 43.7 42.7 41.8 46 .8 4 0 .9 45.9 45.0 44.1 40.0 39.1 2.9 — — — — — 43.3 42.4 41.5 40.6 39.7 37.3 36.4 35.5 14.5 |3 .6 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.6 .. — •3 .5 .7 38.8 37.9 37.0 36.1 35.3 32.7 . § 1 .8 30.9 3.8 4 .1 4.4 4 .7 5.0 1 .0 34.4 33.5 32.6 28.2 27.4 26.5 25.7 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.9 7 .5 8 .2 8.9 9.6 10.4 11.3 1 2 .2 13.2 14.2 15.3 16.5 17.9 19.3 1.3 1 .6 1.9 31.8 38.2 3 0 .0 29.1 2 .1 30.9 2 .2 30.1 29.2 28.4 27,5 26.7 24.0 2.9 3.1 3.4 3 .7 4.0 25.9 25.1 24.3 23.5 19.9 19.1 18.3 17.6 4 .3 4 .7 5.3 2 2 .0 7 .1 19.1 8 .2 2.3 2 .4 2 .6 2 .8 2 2 .8 21.3 20.5 6 .1 19.8 2 4 .8 2 3 .2 2 2 .3 21.5 20.7 16.8 16 .1 15.3 14.6 13 .8 13.1 2 0 .8 1 1 .6 22.3 24.0 15.0 2 2 .0 18.4 17.7 17.1 16.4 15.7 25.9 27.9 30.0 32.3 34.4 24.9 30.1 37.9 48.5 72.0 15.1 14.5 13.9 13.3 12.7 37.1 1 2 .1 11 .6 1 1 .1 1 0 .5 6.7 6.5 6.3 50.2 75.6 76.3 77.3 77.8 79.7 10.0 5.8 134.1 139.0 145.0 152.5 160.7 54.1 58.2 62.7 67.9 73.7 80.0 80.8 82.3 84.6 87.0 9.5 9.0 8.6 8.1 7 .7 KA 3 .0 t 1 c 1 3.1 4.9 4 .7 — — — — 168.9 177.1 186.7 197.4 209.3 80.3 87.4 95.0 103.3 112.1 88.6 89.7 91.7 94.1 97.2 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.1 5.7 -4*0 3 #j 17.0 15.1 13.4 11.8 10.4 .. — — — — 222.1 235.6 249.7 264.6 280.2 121.4 131.2 141.6 152.5 164.0 100.7 104.4 108.1 112.1 116.2 5.4 5.1 4.8 4 .5 4.2 3 .4 3 .2 3 .0 2 .9 2 .7 757 532 365 244 158 9.1 7.8 6.7 5.7 4.8 .. — — — — 296.8 314.0 332.4 352.4 373.2 175,7 . 187.5 199;7 211.9 223,.8 121.1 126.5 132.7 140.5 149.4 4 .0 3 .7 3 .5 3.3 3.1 2 .5 99 60 35 19 10 4.0 3.2 2.6 2.0 1 .5 .. — — — 395.0 420.0 446.2 480.1 515.1 235.7 247.0 258.0 267.4 276.1 159.3 173.0 188.2 212.7 239.0 2.9 2 .7 2 .5 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 5 2 1 1.1 .6 .5 554.8 599.8 657.3 283.4 288.8 290.7 271.4 311.0 366.6 — — 4 6 .0 50.8 58.0 67.9 80.8 4 0 .0 43.2 4 6 .6 9.6 ' * 1.7 1 •• 1 2 ,4 11.7 1 1 .0 1 0 .3 9.7 9.1 8.5 8 .0 7 .5 7 .1 6 .0 LO 3 .6 2.4 2.2 2 .1 1.9 ■ 1*4 1.3 1 VA It .0ft »5 21 Table 5. - Table of working life: nonwbite males, 1940 J21 Tear of age X to X ML AA- Lex »x t ftmber living of 100.000 born aliTt ____ fr Iftoi force_______ [ In Percent of *1 (5) M l __________________ £ Z L _ 1000 4^ (i :* f 8 11 d 1* 1000 QJ t 1000 Qz 1l » 1000 4 1 1_______________ !!______________ i __ ___ (Between 3rears of age)_______________ : U - 15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 87,947 87,710 87,429 87,114 86,757 86,358 13,044 21,142 33,579 47,407 58,934 67,938 14.8 24.1 38.4 54.4 67.9 78.7 92.5 142.6 159.6 134.3 107.1 55.4 2 .7 3.2 3 .6 4 .1 4 .6 5.1 2 .7 3.2 3 .6 4 .1 4 .6 5.1 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 85,918 85,437 84,916 84,364 83,782 72,376 74,883 76,221 76,838 76,991 84.2 87.6 89.8 91.1 91.9 33.9 21.0 13.1 8 .1 5.0 5.6 6 .1 6 .5 6 .9 7.2 5.6 6 .1 6 .5 6 .9 7 .2 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 83,179 82,555 81,911 81,248 80,566 76,857 76,538 76,097 75,579 75,010 92.4 92.7 92.9 93.0 93.1 3 .1 1 .9 1.2 .8 .5 7 .5 7 .8 8 .1 8 .8 7 ,5 7 .8 8 .1 8 .4 8 .8 30-31 31 -32 32-33 33 -34 34-35 79,857 79,130 78,378 77,610 76,818 74,390 73,736 - 73,039 72,298 71,507 93.2 93.2 93.2 93.2 93.1 .3 9 .1 9 .5 10.1 10.9 11.6 9 .1 9 .5 9 .8 10.2 10.6 35-36 3 6-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 76,004 75,168 74,304 73,412 72,487 70,674 69,816 68,933 68,027 67,092 93.0 92.9 92.8 92.7 92.6 — — 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.4 40 -4 1 4 1 -4 2 42 -4 3 4 3 -4 4 4 4 -4 5 71,523 70,522 69,485 68,408 67,286 66,123 65,102 64,025 62,889 61,691 92.4 92.3 92.1 91.9 91.7 .. — — — — 15.4 16.5 17.7 19.0 20.3 45 -46 4 6 -4 7 4 7 -4 8 4 8 -4 9 4 9 -5 0 66,122 64,905 63,633 62,303 60,907 60,436 59,129 57,768 56,3*7 54,895 91.4 91.1 90.8 90.5 90 .1 .. — — — 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 59,451 57,941 56,388 54,798 53,176 53,388 51,842 50,268 48,666 47,038 89.8 89.5 89.1 88.8 88.5 55-56 56-57 57-58 58-59 59-60 51,533 49,874 48,208 46,535 44,860 45,389 43,695 41,925 40,105 38,168 8*.l 87.6 87.0 86.2 85.1 60-61 61-62 62-63 63-64 64-65 43,191 41,532 39,883 38,244 36,615 36,061 33,912 31,721 29,466 27,168 83.5 81.7 79.5 77.0 74.2 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 35,000 33,397 31,811 30,236 28,673 24,682 22,167 19,762 17,527 15,475 70.5 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 24,021 22,474 20,923 13,609 11,916 10,387 9,009 7,768 50.2 46 .6 43.2 40 .1 37.1 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 19,366 17,809 16,260 34,738 13,264 6,645 5,634 4,731 3,931 3,229 34.3 31.6 29.1 26.7 24.3 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 11,858 10,532 9,294 8,150 7,100 2,621 2,102 1,664 1,298 997 22.1 20.0 17.9 15.9 U.O 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 6,144 5,279 4,502 3,808 3,193 752 556 403 285 197 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 2,651 2,178 1,768 1,416 1,117 133 87 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 867 661 493 11 6 3 27,119 25,568 , 360 55 34 20 1 - ________ ( S L . Separations from the labor foroe Accessions to : L.000 in labor force)_________ the labor force :1__________ Due to : Due to Due to all 11 (per 1,000 in 1 1 death_____ 1 retirement___ .. •— — — — — _i2L .jiQj . Average maaber of remaining ___________ 151gg.911 ____________ Labor force Ufa 1 participation 0 ®x 1 « (At beeinn jmt of year of 44 .9 44 .0 43.1 42.2 41U 40.6 41.4 40 .5 39.6 38.7 37.9 37.0 39.8 39.0 38.3 37.5 36.7 36.2 35.4 34.6 33.8 33.1 36.0 35.2 34.5 33.8 33.0 32.3 31.5 30.8 30.0 29.2 »3 .7 1 .0 32.3 31.6 30.9 30.2 29.5 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.3 1 .1 1 .1 1 .1 1 .1 1 .1 28.8 28.1 27.4 26.7 26.1 24.8 24.1 23.4 22.7 22.0 U.O U .7 15.5 16.4 17.3 1 .4 1 .8 2 .2 2 .6 3 .0 25 U 24.8 24.1 23.5 22.8 21.3 20.6 20.0 19.3 18.7 21.6 23.0 24.4 25.9 27.5 18.4 19.6 20.9 22.4 23.9 3 .2 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .6 22.2 21.6 21 .0 20 .4 19.9 18.0 17.4 16.8 16.2 15.6 .. — — — "" 29.0 30.4 31.9 33.5 35.1 2 $.4 26.8 28.1 29.5 30.8 3 .6 3 .6 3 -8 4 .3 19.3 18.8 18.3 17.8 17.3 15.0 U4 13.8 13.3 12.7 .. — 37.3 40.5 43.4 48.3 55.2 32.1 33.3 34.5 35.8 36.9 5.2 7 .2 8 .9 12.5 18.3 16.9 16.4 15.9 15.5 15.0 12.1 11.6 11.1 10.5 10.0 59.6 38.0 39.2 4 0 .5 41.8 4 3 .0 21.6 U .6 71.1 78.0 91.5 25 U 30.6 36.2 u.i 9 .5 9 .1 8 .7 8 .2 7 .8 .. — — — — 101.9 108.5 113.1 117.1 120.6 4 4 .5 46 .0 47 .9 50.0 52.4 57.4 62.5 65.2 67.1 68.2 12.3 11.9 11.5 11.0 10.6 124.4 128.3 132.7 137.8 144.6 55.2 — — — 62.1 66.5 71.7 69.2 69.9 70.6 71.3 72 .9 10.1 9 .7 9 .3 8 .9 8 .5 6 .1 5.8 5.6 — •— —— — 152.1 160.3 169.2 178.6 188.3 77.4 83.7 89.9 9 5 .9 101.4 7 4 .7 7 6 .6 79.3 8 2 .7 86 .9 8 .1 7 .7 7U 7 .1 6 .8 4 .9 4 .7 4 .5 4 .2 4 .0 .. — — — — 198.2 208.6 219.8 232.2 245.8 106.7 111.8 116.8 121.7 126.6 91.5 96 .8 103.0 110.5 119.2 6 .5 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.4 3 .8 3 .6 3 .5 3.3 3 .1 12.2 10.5 9 .0 7 .5 6.2 — — — — 260.4 275.8 292.0 309.0 326.8 131.7 137.0 142.6 148.6 155.2 128.7 138.8 U9-4 160.4 171.6 5.2 5.0 4 .7 2 .9 2 .7 2 .6 2 .4 5.0 4 .0 3 .1 2 .4 1 .8 — — — — — 345.4 364.8 385.0 406.5 430.8 162.2 170.1 178.5 187.8 197.7 183.2 194-7 206.5 218.7 233.1 3 .4 3 .1 2 .8 1 .3 .9 .. — — 459.9 494.5 535.6 585.1 208.0 218.6 229.1 239.2 251.9 275.9 306.5 345.9 2 .4 2 .0 1 .5 .8 66.4 62.1 58.0 54.0 .6 .3 — —• — ... — — — — — — — 8.4 64.6 58.4 — — — — — 4— — — — 4 .0 48.5 13.7 13.2 12.8 4.5 7 .4 7 .1 6 .8 6.6 6.3 5U 5.1 4 .2 2.3 3 .9 2 .1 2 .0 1 .9 1 .7 1 .5 3 .7 1 .4 1 .1 1.0 .5 are) 22 tab!* 6. - Table of vorldag life* urban white males, 1940 ML 2) , , O) U) - o = E llilag of IDQ.QW te a lU n . fMTfif t Pareant of Xaar of age ML Accessions to tha labor foreo (par 1,000 in MSaparatlona L ML from tha _i___BWBlittW___ i_ 1000 q£ 1000 lx --------- ^ ML labor force (oar 1.000 In arm labor forca) tv etf Doe to Due to i retirement 1000 (At beeinnj 51.9 51.0 50.1 49.2 48.3 47.3 46.2 4^.3 44*4 43.5 42 .5 41.6 46.4 45.5 .6 43.7 42.8 U 40 .7 39.8 38.9 37.9 37.0 41.9 41 .0 40.1 39.2 38.3 36.1 35.2 34.3 33.4 32.5 .9 37.4 36.5 35.6 34.8 33.9 31.5 30.6 29.7 28.8 27.9 2 .2 33.0 32.1 31.3 30.4 29.5 27.1 26.2 25.3 24.5 23.6 22.8 22.0 21.2 20 19.6 23.8 23.0 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-16 18-19 19-20 92,861 92, 9 ? 92,974 92,417 92,251 92,076 1,862 5,564 13,984 28,837 47,786 63*258 2.0 6.0 15 a » a 51.8 68.7 39.9 90.9 160.7 205.6 168.7 96.8 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 91,892 91,699 91,497 91,296 91,086 72,044 77,121 80,610 82,839 84,401 78.4 84.1 88.1 90.7 92.7 56.9 39.9 26.3 19 a 11.8 2.1 2.2 2a 2.3 2a 2.1 2.2 2a 2.3 2.4 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 90,867 90,649 90,422 90,187 89,943 85,273 85,877 86,179 86,308 86,255 93.8 94.7 95.3 95.7 95.9 8.9 5.7 3.9 2.0 1.0 2a 2.5 2.6 — 2.8 2a 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 30-31 31-32 32-33 33-34 34-35 89,691 89,431 89,154 88,860 88,549 86,103 85,880 85,617 85,300 84,942 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 95.9 .3 2.9 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 mm mm 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 88,213 87,851 87,464 87,053 86,618 84,543 84,103 83,615 83,080 82,498 95.8 95.7 95.6 95 a 95.2 5.2 4.1 5.8 4 6 4.7 5.0 5.4 40-41 41-42 86,150 85,642 85,094 84,498 83,847 81,871 81,200 80,485 79,720 78,891 95.0 94.8 94.6 94a 94.1 48-49 49-50 83,143 82,378 81,558 80,681 79,741 78,000 , 77,041 76,009 74,899 73,708 93.8 93.5 93.2 92.8 92 a 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 78,724 77,630 76,458 75,212 73,881 72,433 71,071 <9,621 68,075 66,414 92.0 91.6 91.1 90.5 89.9 55-56 56-57 57-58 58-59 59-60 72,462 70,955 69,359 67,667 65,881 64,608 62,631 58,100 55,526 89.2 08.J 87a 85.9 84.3 60-61 63,997 62,013 59,936 57,772 55,530 52,522 49,460 46,270 42,809 38,948 82.1 79 a 77 a 74.1 70.1 — — — — mm 42-43 43-44 44-45 45-46 46-47 47-48 61-62 62-63 63-64 64-65 60,464 — — — — — — — 7.6 — 8.2 8.8 9.5 — — — a .7 1.1 1.4 1.7 2 .0 wa 3 .1 24.6 — 9.2 10.0 10.8 11.7 12.8 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.5 22.3 21.5 18.8 18.0 17.2 16.5 15.7 M — — — "* 18.8 20.4 22.2 24 a 27.2 13.9 15.1 16.3 17.6 19.1 4.9 5.3 5.9 6.8 20.8 20.0 19.3 18.6 17.9 15.0 14.2 13.5 12.8 12.1 30.6 34.6 39.1 44.3 54.1 20.7 22.4 9.9 26.2 2«a 14.9 18.1 25.9 17.3 16.6 16.0 15.3 14.7 11.4 10.7 10.0 9 .4 8.8 58.3 64.5 74.8 90.2 125.9 30.6 33.0 35 a 37.8 39.9 27.7 31.5 39.4 52a 86.0 14.1 12.4 11.9 8.2 7 .7 7 .1 6.6 6.2 131.5 135.9 139.7 143.8 150.1 42.8 45.9 49.3 52.8 56.5 88.7 90.0 90.4 91.0 93.6 11.4 10.9 10.4 9.9 9 .4 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.0 154.7 160.0 167.2 177.5 189.0 60.8 65.6 70.8 76.2 82.0 93.9 94.4 96.4 101.3 107.0 9 .0 8 .5 8.1 201.2 215.2 230.5 247.5 265.8 88.0 94.2 100.8 107.5 114.7 113.2 121.0 129.7 140.0 151.1 6 .9 6 .5 6.2 5.8 5.5 285.2 305.1 328.0 333.0 378.7 122 a 130.1 138.3 146.9 156.0 163.0 175.0 189.7 206.1 222.7 4.8 4.5 406.0 434.1 467.5 505.0 555.1 165.2 174.7 183.7 192.3 198.8 240.8 259 a 283.8 312.7 356.3 3.7 3a 3.1 2 .7 2a 1.7 60 5 a 655.7 705.3 204.8 210.2 215.0 400.6 445.5 490.3 2 .0 1.0 1.5 .8 .8 — — — — — — 39.2 35a 31.9 28.7 25.7 75-76 76-77 27,639 25,060 22,546 20,116 17,791 6,309 5,040 3,955 3,043 2,290 22.8 20.1 17.5 15.1 12.9 — — — — mm — — — -~ mm — — — • “* 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 15,585 13,512 11,585 9^15 8,207 1,681 1,202 835 561 363 1 0.8 85-86 86-87 87-88 226 134 76 40 20 3.3 2a 1.7 1.2 89-90 6,767 5,496 4,393 3^ 5 2 2,665 .8 — — — — 90-91 91-92 92-93 2,020 1,503 1,097 9 4 1 a .3 •1 — — mm 14.6 15.9 17.3 12.3 — 15,994 13,520 11,357 9,458 7,779 88-89 — — 2 .7 2 .9 40,779 38,177 35,547 32,902 30,260 £7 — ioa 11.3 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 8.9 •> 28.7 27.9 27.0 26.2 25.4 68-69 69-70 7A — a sa 64.0 58.2 52.8 47.9 43a . a mm mm mm mm- 7.0 7.7 — '* — — 34,O U 29,567 25,549 21,980 18,819 77-78 78-79 79-80 a 7.0 — 53^U 50,830 48,385 45,888 43,350 65-66 66-67 67-68 2 .7 J2SL q* _________________ i 1______________ 1 IBetween rears of are) » rear of are ML Average nunber of remaining _____ jpfresft Labor force participation „Hft — — — 4a mm mm * 5.9 6 24.2 2.3 2a 2.5 8 .1 12.2 13.6 13.0 7.7 7.3 5.2 4a 4 .0 a 4 .8 4*6 4a 4 .1 3 .9 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 22.6 a 2a 2 .1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 .5 23 Table 7. - Table af working life: urban eonuhite aalea, 1940 J lL zh Jaar of agp <3) U) taOW tara.ilAw, £ U tImt tf IInfitlabor foro# t Percent of BCTffWffl *___SatiSI___> BgBHliXlffl.. ( 5)________________ ( 6}___________ (2 )___________ ( 8 ) Aceeeaions to the labor force (per 1,000 In P9W1?**9p) 1000 Ax t Separation* Aron the labor force i t_________ (per 1.000 In labor force)_________ t i Due to all t Due to * Doe to : f_____SSBCS1___ !____08£&_____ t fPttlSSSBfe___ 1 * 1 a * 1000 Qx t d 1000 Qx * * r 1000 Qx * * _i2i________m __ Average nunber of remaining 1 Life t 0 * * 1 •x , 15 16 17 18 19 20 20-21 21-22 87,2b 16,953 •6,640 86,293 85,896 85,441 4,017 9,657 23,370 38,836 51,627 63,774 4.6 11.1 27.2 45.0 60.1 74*6 84,920 84,351 83,744 83,108 82,443 69,810 72,416 73,835 74,543 74,761 82.2 85.9 88.2 89.7 90.7 64.8 160.4 177.3 150.3 144.6 75.2 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.1 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.3 6.1 36.2 15.2 9.8 5.9 6.7 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 6.7 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 23.0 0 aw* (At beeinnit ___ __ (Beteeci yeare of age) (In year of a n 14 1516171819 - Labor force — — — — — .. -— — 42.0 41.1 40.3 39.4 38.6 37.8 38.5 37.6 36.7 35.9 35.0 34.2 37.0 36.2 35.5 34.7 34.0 33.4 32.6 31.8 31.1 30.3 33.3 32.6 31.8 31.1 30.4 29.5 28.8 28.1 27.3 26.6 25.8 25.1 24 U 23.6 22.9 22-23 23 24 - 25 24 25 26 27 28 29 - 26 27 28 29 30 81,750 81,031 80,294 79,531 78,752 74,619 74,331 73,898 73,316 72,661 91.3 91.7 92.0 92.2 92.3 4.5 3.0 1.5 .8 .5 8.8 9.1 9.5 0.8 10.2 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 1C .2 30 - » 31 32 33 34 - 71,960 71,221 70,440 69,605 68,718 92.3 92.3 92.4 92.3 92.2 .3 32 33 34 35 77,949 77,123 76,275 75,398 74,493 10.6 11.0 11.9 12.7 13.5 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 .7 1 .0 29.7 29.0 28.4 27.7 27.0 35 36 37 38 39 - 36 37 38 39 40 73,562 72,606 71,619 70,602 69,577 67,787 66,828 65,843 64,833 63,799 92.1 92.0 91.9 91.8 91.7 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.6 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 1 .1 1 .1 1 .1 1 .1 1 .1 26.3 25.7 25.0 24.3 23.7 22.2 21.5 20.8 20.2 19.5 68,479 67,370 66,225 65,840 68,804 62,737 61,624 60,438 59,160 57,797 91.6 91.5 91.3 91.0 90.6 17.7 19.2 21.1 23.0 24.8 16.2 17.0 17.9 19.0 20.2 1 .5 2 .2 3.2 4 .0 4 .6 23.0 22.4 21.8 21.2 20.5 18.8 18.1 17.4 16.8 16.2 62,515 61,158 59,721 58,210 5M27 56,361 54,854 53,283 51,650 49,969 90.2 89.7 89.2 88.7 — — — 21.6 23.4 25.2 27.1 5 .1 5.2 — 19.9 19.4 18.8 18.3 17.7 U .9 U .3 88.2 26.7 28.6 30.6 32.5 34.5 13.8 13.2 94,979 33,280 51,543 49,780 48,003 48,243 a , 689 42,877 41,049 87.7 87.2 86.7 mm mm mm mm 17.2 16.7 16.3 15.8 15.4 12.6 12.1 11.5 11.0 10.4 39,196 37,313 35,380 33,406 31,278 U .9 U .5 u .i 13.7 13.3 9 .9 9 .4 26,586 40- a 414243 -44 44- 42 43 454 6 - 47 4 7 - 48 4849- 46 45 49 50 — — — .. — — — mm mm — — — mm 29.0 30.8 — — — — — mm — a 5a 5a 5 .5 5 .7 6 .0 50 51 32-53 53 54 - 51 52 55 56 57 58 - 56 57 58 59 59- 60 46,217 44,424 42,629 40,834 39,045 63 37,265 35^99 33,749 64- 65 30,317 6566676869- 66 67 68 69 70 28,6U 27,003 25,394 23,817 22^74 17,087 14,568 12,279 10,289 8,581 43.2 38.5 7071727374- 71 72 73 74 75 20,739 19,273 17,814 16,385 14,992 7,122 5,882 4,832 3,947 3,205 34.3 30.5 27.1 24.1 21.4 77 78 79 80 13,643 12,343 11,100 9,920 8,809 2,586 2,073 1,649 1,301 1,017 19.0 16.8 U.9 13.1 11.5 mm mm mm mm 198.5 204.5 — 226.5 111.0 7,771 787 602 454 338 247 10.1 mm mm mm 116.0 — — 235.5 245.5 256.6 268.9 282.5 177 124 89 4.7 3.9 3.1 2.5 297.5 314.0 332.1 351.9 373.5 142.3 146.3 150.3 154a 219.1 — . — — 397.0 422.5 450.1 479.9 512.0 139.1 164.8 171.5 179.2 187.5 - 546.5 196a 60-61 61-62 626 3 - 64 75 -76 7677787980-81 81-82 82-87 83-84 84- 54 55 32,021 6 ,0 2 85 .5,935 <5,139 4,423 86878889*90 87 88 89 3*783 3,215 2,714 2,276 9091-92 92*93 93-94 94-95 91 85-86 99 46,480 28,929 24*244 21,917 19,622 86.1 85.5 " 84.8 mm 84.0 83.0 81.8 80.1 77.6 74.9 71.8 68.4 64.7 — — — — — — — 104.7 129.2 — mm mm 5.6 — mm — — — — 1,896 37 2.0 .. — — — — 1,567 1,284 1,041 834 9 23 1.5 1.1 mm mm 511. m u 8 4 A 2 .5 .3 X Jt 81.0 88.1 96.0 — 48a 4 .4 48.0 51.8 55.8 63.7 75.1 mm 59.7 53.9 8.8 7.6 36.5 38.5 40.5 42.6 45.1 147.4 137.1 162.1 166.0 170.0 174.1 178.5 183.1 187.9 193.0 211.1 218 a 32.5 34.1 35.6 37.1 38.6 40.2 41.8 6a 7 .0 8.0 9a 11.6 u .o 1 15.5 8.8 43.4 20.3 U .9 30.2 46.6 48.3 50.0 51.8 53.1 34.4 39.8 46.0 52.9 76.1 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.7 11.3 7.3 6 .9 6 .5 6 .1 5.7 54.6 56.6 58.9 92.8 100.5 103.2 10.9 10.5 10.2 9 .8 9 .4 5.2 5.0 4 .9 4 .8 6i a 6 4a 104.6 47.8 71.7 75.9 106.3 106.8 80a 85.1 90.1 95.2 100 a 105.7 120.8 125.3 129.7 134.1 138.2 305.6 107 a 107.5 307.9 9 .1 8 .7 8 .4 8 .0 7.7 8.3 7 .8 5a 4 .7 4 .5 4 .4 4 .3 4 .1 i osa 309.3 110.7 112.7 115.5 7 .4 7 .1 6 .8 6 .5 6.3 4 .0 3 .9 3 .7 3.6 119.5 124.7 131.3 339a 6 .0 5.8 5.5 5.3 3.3 3 .1 3 .0 2 .8 2 .7 348a 139.3 171.7 385.8 5.1 3a 4.8 4.6 2 .5 4 .3 4 .0 3 .7 2.2 2 .1 237.9 237.7 278.6 300.7 324.5 3 .4 3 .0 2 .6 2 .1 1 .6 1 .7 1.6 350.1 .9 201.6 2a 1.9 ia 1.2 1 .0 .5 - 24 Tab!* 8* - Table of working' Ufa: rural vhita sales, 1940 _I21 (2) Ml t Jhator l l i i i 18 9 f 1W .W 9 byrn a^lTa___ Tear o f ago X to X a 1 ____ In labor forca_______ | ^ Percent of ___ Huaber___ population t wx ** * I*x _____________ i_____________ re a r o f a n Ml Accessions to the labor force (per 1,000 In lOOO A* Separations fron the labor force _________ (per 1.000 In labor force)__________ 1 Due to Doe to a l l t Due to » retirement 1 death 1 <4 1000 qJ 1 1000 q£ » 1000 <£ « (Between years of are) u - 15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 92,627 92,497 92,349 92,192 92,026 91,8(2 6,760 14,246 25,304 39,732 55,398 67,867 7 .3 15*4 27.4 43.1 60.2 73.9 80.9 119.8 156.7 170.7 136.7 85.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2 .1 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 91,6(9 91,438 91,228 91,009 90,781 '75,605 79,729 82,380 83,998 84,926 82.5 87.2 90.3 92.3 93.6 46.9 31.0 19.9 12.5 7.9 2.3 2.3 2.4 2 .5 2 .5 2.3 2.3 2.4 2 .5 2 .5 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 90,554 90,319 90,080 89,832 89,585 85,431 85,662 85,710 85,668 «5,544 94.3 94.8 95.1 95.4 95.5 5.0 3.0 2 .1 1.2 .5 2.6 2.6 2 .7 2 .7 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2 .7 2.8 30-31 31-32 32-33 33-34 34-35 89,330 89,075 88,803 88,523 88,235 85,349 85,137 84,884 84,612 84,316 95.5 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.6 .3 2.8 3.0 3.2 3 .5 3.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 87,940 87,628 87,299 86,963 86,611 83,996 83,635 83,234 82,793 82,313 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.0 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.3 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 44-45 86,234 85,833 85,408 84,960 84,480 81,794 81,238 80,645 80,024 79,368 94.9 94.6 94.4 94.2 93.9 — — — — 45-46 46-47 47-48 48-49 49-50 83,969 83,427 82,847 82,230 81,568 78,677 77,953 77,189 76,379 75,516 93.7 93.4 93.2 92.9 92.6 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 80,854 80,086 79,261 78,381 77,440 74,595 73,610 72,565 71,462 70,297 55-56 56-57 57-58 58-59 59-60 76,433 75,355 74,202 72,970 71,664 60-61 61-62 62-63 63-64 64-65 1 Average nunber *_____________ years t t1 > L ife 1t ; > of remaining oft __________ Labor fores n a rticln a tio n :. 8wx 1t (At berinniiir of year of are) 55.0 54.1 53.2 52.3 51.4 50.5 48.9 48.0 47.1 46.2 45.2 44.3 49.6 48.7 47.8 46.9 46.0 43.4 42.5 41.6 40.7 39.8 45.1 44.2 43.3 42.5 41.6 38.9 38.0 37.1 36.2 35.3 .1 .3 .5 40.7 39.8 38.9 38.0 37.2 34.4 33.5 32.6 31.7 30.8 3.5 3 .7 3.9 4 .1 4.4 .8 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 36.3 35.4 34.5 33.7 32.8 29.9 29.0 28.1 27.3 26.4 6.8 7 .3 7 .7 8.2 8.7 4 .7 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.1 2 .1 2 .3 2.4 2 .5 2.6 31.9 31.1 30.2 29.4 28.5 25.6 24.8 23.9 23.1 22.3 — — — — 9.2 9.8 10.5 11.3 12.2 6.5 7 .0 7 .5 8.1 8.8 2 .7 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 27.7 26.9 26.1 25.2 24.4 21.5 20.7 19.9 19.1 18.3 92.3 91.9 91.6 91.2 90.8 — — — — — 13.2 U .2 15.2 16.3 17.6 9.5 10.3 11.1 12.0 13.0 3 .7 3.9 4 .1 4.3 4.6 23.6 22.8 22.1 21.3 20.5 17.5 16.7 15.9 15.1 U .4 69,060 67,713 66,237 64,9)4 62,650 90.4 89.9 89.3 88.5 87.4 __ — — 19.5 21.8 25.1 29.8 36.9 14.1 15.2 16.5 17.8 19.0 5.4 6.6 8.6 12.0 17.9 19.8 19.1 18.3 17.6 16.9 13.6 12.9 12.1 11.4 10.7 70,288 68,826 67,271 65,623 63,877 60,338 57,804 54,885 51,575 47,908 85.8 84.0 81.6 78.6 75.0 42.0 50.5 60.3 71.1 86.0 20.6 22.3 24.1 26.0 28.1 21.4 36.2 45.1 57.9 16.2 15.6 14.9 U .2 13.6 10.1 9.5 8.9 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 62,031 60,083 58,034 55,887 53,635 43,788 39,672 35,756 32,073 28,628 70.6 66.0 61.6 57.4 53U — — — “ 94.0 98.7 103.0 107.4 112.8 30.4 33.0 35.8 38.9 42.3 63.6 65.7 67.2 68.5 70.5 13.0 12.4 11.8 11.2 10.6 7.6 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.4 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 51,286 48,829 46,265 43,605 40,858 25,399 22,425 19,678 17,153 14,8(2 49.5 45.9 42.5 39.3 36.3 — — — — 117.1 122.5 128.3 134.7 141.7 46.2 50.6 55.4 60.7 66.5 70.9 71.9 72.9 74.0 75.2 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.1 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 38,035 35,148 32,217 29,259 26,298 12,739 10,836 9,125 7,595 6,235 33.5 30.8 28.3 26.0 23.7 — — — — 149.4 157.9 167.7 179.0 191.9 73.0 80.2 2*1 97.1 107.2 76.4 7 7.7 79.6 81.9 84.7 7 .5 7.1 6.6 6.2 5.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 4 .1 3.8 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 23,355 20,471 17,697 15,081 12,662 5,039 4,000 3,116 2,379 1,778 21.6 19.5 17.6 15.8 U .0 mm 206.1 221.1 236.6 252.6 269.3 118.1 129.3 1(0 .7 152.4 164.2 88.0 91.8 95.9 100.2 105.1 5.4 5.1 4.8 4 .5 4.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 10,468 8,516 6,811 5,354 4,134 1,299 926 644 435 285 12.4 10.9 9 .5 8.1 6.9 286.8 304.4 324.1 344.7 366.8 176.2 188*5 200.7 212.9 224.7 110.6 115.9 123.4 131.8 142.1 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.4 2 .3 2 .1 2.0 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 3,134 2,331 1,701 1,217 853 180 110 64 35 18 5.7 4 .7 3.8 2 .9 2 .1 390.7 419.6 446.2 480.1 515.1 236.3 247.1 258.0 267.4 276.1 194.4 172.5 188.2 212.7 239.0 2.9 2 .7 2.6 2.4 2.2 1.8 1 .7 1.5 1.4 1.3 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 585 393 259 167 554.8 999.8 657.3 698.2 283.4 288.8 290.7 295.0 271.4 311.0 366.6 403.2 2.0 1 .7 1.3 .8 1.1 1.2 . 9 • 4 2 1 — — — __ — — — — — — mm — — — mm — — — — mm — — — mm mm — — — 1.5 1.0 mm mm .8 •m .6 — .. .. — __ — .. mm — — mm mm — mm 28.2 8 .4 7.9 1 .0 .5 - 25 Table 9* - Table o f working l i f e : ru r a l nonwhite s a le s , 1940 m Tear of age x to x * 1 (4 ) _____ (2)________ ____ (3)_____ t Kasber liv in g o f 100.000 bom a liv e ____ In labor force________ t Percent of ' : In : Nunber x X : t I*X * * I* * *x x ___________ 1 • (In year o f are (7) (8) (5) ______ (6)______ Accessions to Separations froa the labor force _________ (per 1.000 in labor force)_________ x the labor force x (per 1,000 in One to a l l Dus to i1 Due to population) causes death 11 retirement X j 11 1000 (£ 1000 q£ 1000 Ax 1000 Qx 11 * X___________________1 i1 ________ ___________(Betweeia years of are) 1 (9) _______ m ________ Average nuaber o f reaalnlng __________ years of:___ Labor force L ife pa rticip a tio n ** 8wx . (At berin n l U -1 5 15-16 16-17 17-18 16-19 19-20 88,443 88,248 88,019 87,754 87,447 87,106 19,171 28,y?5 40,211 53,170 63,830 70,901 21.7 32.4 45.7 60.6 73.0 81.4 132.7 148.6 123.6 83.7 43.4 2.2 2.6 3.0 3 .5 3.9 4.3 2.2 2.6 3.0 3 .5 3.9 4.3 — — — — — 48.2 47.3 46.4 45.6 44.7 43.9 44.5 43.6 42.7 U .8 41.0 40.1 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 86,731 86,323 85,883 85,411 84,907 74,376 76,836 78,188 78,840 79,050 85.8 89.0 91.0 92.3 93.1 32.4 20.2 12.6 7.9 4.9 4 .7 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.2 4 .7 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.2 •— -— — •** 43.1 42.3 a .5 40.7 39.9 39.3 38.5 37.7 36.8 36.1 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 84,381 83,841 83,279 82,704 82,117 78,976 78,733 78,364 77,923 77,436 93.6 93.9 94.1 94.2 94.3 3.1 1.9 1.2 .8 .5 6.4 6.7 6.9 7 .1 7.2 6U 6.7 6.9 7 .1 7.2 — — — — 39.1 38.4 37.6 36.9 36.2 35.3 34.5 33.7 32.9 32.2 30-31 31-32 32-33 33-34 34-35 81,526 80,923 80,308 79,682 79,045 76,920 76,375 75,799 75,182 74,525 94.4 94.4 94.4 94.4 94.3 .3 — — — — 7.4 7.6 8.1 8.7 9.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 — — .3 .7 1.0 35.4 34.7 33.9 33.2 32.4 31.4 30.6 29.9 29.1 28.3 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 78,397 77,731 77,039 76,315 75,567. 73,836 73,124 72,390 71,627 70,843 94.2 94.1 94.0 93.9 93.7 — — — — “ 9.6 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.4 8.5 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 31.7 31.0 30.2 29.5 28.8 27.6 26.8 26.1 25.4 24.6 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 44-45 74,789 73,974 73,123 72,231 71,306 70,032 69,175 68,280 67,342 66,372 93.6 93.5 93.4 93.2 93.1 — — — — — 12.2 12.9 13.7 H .4 15.1 10.9 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 28.1 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.3 23.9 23.2 22.5 21.8 21.1 45-46 46-47 47-48 48-49 49-50 70,350 69,351 68,311 67,225 66,089 65,370 64,331 63,257 62,137 60,975 92.9 92.8 92.6 92.4 92.3 — — — — — 15.9 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.9 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.9 18.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 24.6 24.0 23.3 22.7 22.1 20.4 19.7 19.0 18.3 17.7 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 64,893 6 3 ,6 a 62,330 60,971 59,563 59,762 58,501 57,191 55,836 54,440 92.1 91.9 91.8 91.6 91.4 — — — — ** 21.1 22.4 23.7 25.0 26.4 19.3 20.6 21.8 23.1 24.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2 .1 21.4 20.8 20.3 19.7 19.1 17.0 16.4 15.7 15.1. 14.4 55-56 56-57 57-58 58-59 59-60 58,116 56,634 55,128 53,601 52,057 53,003 51,503 49,942 48,314 46,604 91.2 91.0 90.6 90.1 89.5 — — — — " 28.3 30.3 32.6 35.4 39.3 25.5 26.6 27.6 28.7 29.6 2.8 3 .7 5.0 6.7 9.7 18.6 lS.O 17.5 17.0 16.5 13.8 13.2 12.6 11.9 11.3 60-61 61-62 62-63 63-64 64-65 50,506 48,945 47,374 45,792 44,198 44,772 42,824 40,768 38,542 36,172 88.6 87.5 86.1 84.2 81.8 — — -— "" 43.5 48.0 54.6 61.5 69.0 30.7 31.8 33.0 34.3 35.7 12.8 16.2 21.6 27.2 33.3 15.9 15.4 14.9 14.4 13.9 10.8 10.2 9.7 9.2 8.7 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 42,594 40,975 39,344 37,703 36,055 33,676 31,093 28,475 25,884 23,373 79.1 75.9 72.4 68.7 64.8 — — — — 76.7 84.2 91.0 97.0 102.3 37.2 38.9 40.6 42.5 44.7 39.5 45.3 50.4 54.5 57.6 13.4 12.9 12.4 11.9 11.4 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.2 6.9 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 34,396 32,721 31,020 29,289 27,529 20,982 18,731 16,620 14,651 12,830 61.0 57.2 53.6 50.0 46.6 — — — — — 107.3 112.7 118.5 124.3 131.2 47.2 50.4 54.0 58.1 62.7 60.1 62.3 64.5 66.2 68.5 10.9 10,4 9.9 9.5 9.0 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.5 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79' 79-8Q 25,742 23,932 22,099 11,147 9,604 8,194 6,917 5,771 43.3 40.1 37.1 34.1 31.3 — — •— — — 138.4 146.8 155.9 165.7 176.2 67.8 73.8 80.2 86.7 93.0 70.6 73.0 75.7 79.0 8.6 8.2 7.8 7.4 7.1 4 .7 4.5 4.2 187.4 199.3 211.9 225.2 239.2 99.0 104.9 6.7 6.4 4.0 3.8 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 20,256 18,427 16,640 14,916 13,274 11,728 10,289 8,961 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 7,745 6,641 5,646 4,757 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-100 4,754 3,863 3,093 2,438 1,889 28.6 25.9 23.3 1,437 1,072 783 16 .0 1 3 .8 11 .8 2 0 .8 18.4 106.8 — — — — ~ — — — — — 560 9.9 391 8 .2 3,968 3,272 2,663 2,136 1,686 266 176 113 70 42 6.7 5.4 4.2 3 .3 2 .5 — — — — 1,309 997 744 543 386 24 13 7 3 1 1.8 1.3 .9 .6 .3 — — — — 253.9 269.3 285.4 302.3 8 3 .2 116.0 121.5 88.4 94.4 101.3 109.2 117.7 127.1 132.9 226.8 136.4 110.6 138.8 146.6 3 2 0 .1 145.0 151.9 338.9 358.9 380.4 403.9 430.1 159.7 168.4 177.9 187.9 197.9 2 3 2 .2 459.9 494.5 535.6 585.1 645.6 208.1 218.6 229.2 239.2 247.9 251.8 275.9 306.4 345.9 397.7 157.3 168.2 179.2 190.5 202.5 216.0 6 .2 5,9 5.6 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.3 4 .1 3.8 3 .5 3.3 3.0 2 .7 ‘9OV 1 0 1*7 7 I x.4 .8 5.2 5.0 3 .6 3.4 3.2 3,0 2 .8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 2 .2 2 ,0 1.9 1.7 1.6 i c 1.3 1.1 .8 .5 - 26 - Table 10. — Median ages of accession and separation for the (In years) Aere at seoaratioia Color and residence Age at accession All causes Deaths Retirements Total........ . White........ Nonwhite...... 17.5 17.7 16.5 63.2 63.6 57.7 59.0 60.0 52.6 65.5 65.5 66.2 Total urban...... White........ Nonwhite...... 17.8 17.8 17.0 62.1 62.6 54.8 57.7 58.5 49.9 65.0 65.0 64.1 Total rural...... White........ Nonwhite..... 17.1 17.3 16.1 64.7 65.0 61.7 61.1 62.1 55.7 66.5 66.4 68.5 1f Estimated on basis of tables of working life for 1940, - 27 It has not been possible, as yet, to develop separate tables of working life for wage and salary workers, but data on the age distribution of employed men, by class of worker, provide some insight into the differences between the retirement pattern of employees and of the self-employed. The proportion of wage and salary workers among employed men in each age group in 194-0 de clined gradually from a peak of 83 percent in the age group 20-24- years to about 56 percent for men aged 60 to 64- years. After age 64 the decline be came particularly sharp} among employed men aged 75 years and over, only 35 percent were wage and salary workers. This decline in wage and salary em ployment with age is due in part to the shift to self-employment by many employees as they acquire the requisite experience and capital. Some older workers who are past the conventional retirement age or who, for other rea sons, can no longer secure regular paid employment also tend to shift to work on their own account, often on a part-time or intermittent basis. 16/ However, the steepness of the decline of wage and salary employment after the early sixties strongly suggests that, on the average, men who have been employees during all, or most, of their working lives are compelled to with draw from gainful activity at an earlier age than are the self-employed. Life Expectancy and Work-Life Expectancy. The lower mortality rates of men living in rural areas are reflected in a significantly higher average life expectancy than for urban men workers. In 1940, the rural resident at age 20 had an average expectation of life of 43 l/2 years or 3 years more than men in urban areas (table 11). At age 60, the differential in favor of the rural worker was still fully 2 years. Since the rural worker tends to retire at a later age than the urban worker, his greater average longevity has contributed to his working life, rather than to the period of retirement. Thus, the average work-life ex pectancy of the rural worker at age 20 (42.8 years) was about 3 years greater than that of the urban worker; in contrast, the rural worker’s average re tirement-life expectancy of 6 years was about the same as for urban men. (See chart 7.) 16/ The relatively greater importance of part-time employment among older men is indicated by the proportion of employed men who worked less than 35 hours in the Census survey week, March 24-30, 194-0. This proportion rose from 10 percent among employed men aged -45-54 years (for whom hours of work were reported) to about 22 percent among those in the group 75 years and over. The relative increase in part-time employment with increased age was greatest, moreover, among farm residents, indicating the greater flexibility of employ ment conditions for this group. Sources Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, op.cit., table 29. 902693 0 - 50 - 5 CHART 7 AVERAGE NUMBER OF REMAINING YEARS OF LIFE IN LABOR FORCE AND IN RETIREMENT MALE WORKERS IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS, 1940 YEARS YEARS 60 1 60 - 50 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 10 0 U N IT E D S TATES BUREAU OF LABOR S T A T IS T IC S D E P A R TM E N T OF LABOR Total.----- 5.9 3.6 23.7 24.0 21.3 40.7 33.4 5.6 5.7 3.6 28.3 28.7 22.5 22.8 42.8 43.4 39.3 5.8 6.2 3.8 31.4 31.9 28.1 46.8 47.7 39.8 41.1 5*7 ✓ •< 41.8 Total urban White.... Nonwhite. 45.6 46.4 37.0 40.0 Total rural Fflaite. • •• Nonwhite. 48.6 49.6 43.1 36.2 23.0 6.0 6.0 5.8 6.1 4.1 15.1 15.1 14.6 9.1 9.1 9.5 5.1 18.8 5.8 5.9 4.2 14.1 H.l 12.9 8.2 8.2 7.3 5.9 5.9 5.6 25.4 25.6 23.9 6.0 6.3 4.2 16.2 16.2 15.9 10.1 10.1 10.8 6.1 6.1 5.1 i 1 * 1 j 0ewx (DO j 0 ex In retire ment i Total Age 60 In labor force (DO 1 X !x* ®x 1 0 (DO 0 ex ~ ewx In retire ment (DO 0 Total 29.5 30.1 25.4 White.... Nonwhite. In retire ment Age 40 In labor force X o ex h" Total (DO Color Age 20 In labor force Average number of remaining years of life, in labor force and in retirement, males, by color and by urban-rural residence, 1940 (DO Table 11. — - 30 - White-Nonwhite Differentials Labor Force Accessions. Nonwhite youths typically begin working at an earlier age than do white youths. At age 14, almost 15 percent of the non white males were in the labor force in 1940, as compared with only 5 percent of the whites. Labor force entry rates were higher for the nonwhites until ages 16-17; after this age interval, white youths began working in propor tionately greater numbers. (See chart 8.) This contrasting pattern of labor force entry resulted in a median age at accession of 16.5 years for the non whites, which was more than 1 year earlier than for white youths. This differential is closely related to the relatively unfavorable so cial and economic status of the nonwhite youths as a group. Lower family income and the larger average number of children per family have made it nec essary for nonwhite youths to contribute to the family livelihood at an earl ier age than white youths. Relatively more limited access to occupations requiring substantial training or education has also tended to reduce the incentive for Negroes as a group to obtain advanced education and has encour aged them to leave school at an earlier age. Labor Force Separations. Nonwhite men are subject to substantially higher rates of labor force separation than are white men, until the early sixties; above this age, the situation is reversed. (See chart 9>) For all nonwhite men in the 1940 stationary labor force, the median age at separa tion of 57.7 years was about 6 years lower than for white men. The differ ential was greatest for the urban nonwhites, who stopped working about 8 years earlier, on the average, than white men in urban areas. In rural areas,the median age at labor force separation of nonwhites was only about 3 years lower than for whites. The lower average age of labor force separation of nonwhites is largely due to 'their much higher rates of mortality, during the period of working age. At age 30, the death rate among nonwhite men was about 3 times as high as among whites, and— even at age 60— it was still about 50 percent above the corresponding rate for whites. These striking differences in mortality ex perience reflect the less adequate level of nutrition, hygiene, and medical care available to the nonwhite population, as well as the other basic handi caps associated with a lower standard of living. The apparently more favorable mortality rates reported for nonwhite men in the upper ages (i.e., above age 75) are partially explained by the high proportion of farmers, a group with particularly favorable mortality rates, among the nonwhites surviving to these ages. They may, however, be due in part to incomplete death registration of nonwhites and to biases in age re porting, and should therefore be interpreted with caution. 17/ 17/ See Appendix, p. 61. CHART 8 ANNUAL RATES OF LABOR FORCE ACCESSION PER I 0 0 0 IN POPULATION BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS WHITE AND NONWHITE MALES, 1940 CHART 9 ANNUAL RATES OF LABOR FORCE SEPARATION WHITE AND NONWHITE MALES, 1940 A LABOR FORCE U N IT E D STATES B U REAU OF DEPARTM ENT LA B O R Total Separation Rate OF S T A T IS T IC S LA B O R PER 1000 IN LABOR FORCE Death rPr robabm t¥ O D O D IIIT y U e a T ft - 33 - Retirement rates among nonwhite workers tend to be lower, at most ages, than among white workers, thus differing from the mortality pattern. The difference is most pronounced in the age span of the sixties, when nonwhite men apparently experience much less "bunching" of retirements. These dif ferences largely arise because a relatively high proportion of nonwhite workers are farmers or farm laborers, who are less subject to the social and economic factors that influence retirement of other workers. 13/ Separate examination of the retirement patterns of urban and rural work ers discloses significant contrasts between retirement rates of whites and nonwhites in, each group. In urban areas, the median retirement age of nonwhites in the stationary labor force (64*1 years) was about 1 year less than for white workers. This is probably due to a combination of factors: higher rates of unemployment among the urban nonwhites, a higher incidence of dis ability, and a much greater concentration in unskilled and semi-skilled jobs, in which age and physical disabilities are likely to be greater handicaps to continued employment. In rural areas, the reverse was true: the median retirement age of rural nonwhites, 68.5 years, was fully 2 years higher than for the white group. With work opportunities more readily accessible to them, virtually all able-bodied nonwhites in rural areas apparently continued working even at the most advanced ages. Thus, in rural areas in 1940, only about 5 percent of the nonwhite men, 75 years and over, not in institutions, were reported as out side of the labor force for causes other than disability, as compared with 14 percent of the whites. 19/ Life Expectancy and Work-Life Expectancy. A comparison of color differ entials in working-life expectancy shows that, at most ages, the known dif ferences in life expectancy apply to working life, although in lesser degree (chart 10). Under 1940 conditions, the average life expectancy for the non white worker, aged 20, was about 8 years less than that for a white youth of the same age. His working-life expectancy, of 36.2 years, was about 5 1 / 2 years less than for the white worker— largely reflecting his poorer chances of surviving through the "prime" of working life. Just as for total life ex pectancy, this differential narrowed gradually over the period of middle age and, by age 60, the working-life expectancy of the surviving nonwhite workers, as a group, actually exceeded that of white workers. This partly reflects the relatively low mortality rates of nonwhites at advanced ages, and partly the predominantly rural composition (and lower retirement rates) of the non white labor force in the upper age groups. 18/ In March 1940, about 45 percent of nonwhite males 55 years and over in the labor force were in rural-farm areas as compared with 28 percent of the white males. Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, The Labor Force (Sample Statistics), Employment and Personal Characteristics, table 1. 19/ Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, Char acteristics of Persons not in the Labor Force, table 1. CHART 10 AVERAGE NUMBER OF REMAINING YEARS OF LIFE IN LABOR FORCE AND IN RETIREMENT WHITE AND NONWHITE MALE WORKERS, 1 9 4 0 YEARS YEARS 34 W HITE U N IT E D STATES D E P A R TM EN T OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR S TA TIS TIC S NONWHITE WHITE NONWHITE W HITE NONWHITE - 35 Largely as a result of the shorter life expectancy of the nonwhites, their average retirement-life expectancy was also less than for white work ers. At age 20, the difference between the life and the working-life ex pectancies of the nonwhite worker, about 3 l/2 years, was over 2 years less than for a white man of the same age, mainly because a smaller proportion of the nonwhite workers could expect to attain retirement age. The retire ment-life expectancy of the nonwhites showed a pronounced rise, however, to over 5 years at age 60, reflecting the relative improvement in life expectancy of those nonwhite workers surviving to advanced ages. CHANGES IN THE PATTERN OF WORKING LIFE, 1940-47 The pattern of working life is continually changing. It is affected by trends in mortality and also by various long-term social and economic forces. In addition to these basic trends, experience during the past dec ade has revealed marked changes in the pattern of labor force participation in relation to age, resulting from wartime mobilization of the labor force and subsequent transition to a period of high postwar employment. In order to gage the effect of these changes on the length of working life, an abridged working-life table for males, by 5-year age groups, was constructed on the basis of 1947 experience (table 12). A comparable abridged table is also shown for 1940. Stationary Population and Labor Force The abridged tables, like the detailed tables for 1940, begin with an initial group of 100,000 persons born alive each year. The estimated num ber of survivors in the population and in the labor force, and the corre sponding rates of entry and separation from the labor force, are shown, how ever, for 5-year groups only. Thus, the 1947 stationary population, aged 10-14 , of 475>284 represents the probable number who would be living within these attained ages, on the assumption of 100,000 male live births annually (or 500,000 in a 5-year period) and subjected to the stated conditions of mortality. Use of this summary form was necessitated by the absence of any reliable population and labor force data by single years of age after 1940. 20/ 2o/ 'Hie rates of labor force participation shown in the 1947 table were based on a special tabulation of the Census Bureau's Monthly Report on the Labor Force for April 1947. Because of sample limitations, the development of estimates by single years of age was not feasible. - 36 - (1) (2) Abridged table of working life, males, 1940 1/ and 1947 (3) (4)__________($) (6) (71_____ (8) Accessions Separations from the labor force Number living of 100,000 (per 1.000 in labor force) to the born alive Due to Due to labor force Due to In labor force all death retire Percent of (per 1,000 In popu ment causes Number lation population in popu i lation) Age interval x to x+n n1* ' rf*x nwx (Within age interval) M°°n*x 1000 n d 1000 no£ 1000 n«x i 9 ) . ___ j l p i Average number of remaining years of Labor force Life partici pation (DO Table 12. — K (At beginning of age interval) (Between successive age intervals) ________________ i 1940 10-14 .................... 15-19..... 20-24..... 25-29..... 30-34..... 35-39..... 40-44..... 45-49..... 5 0 - 5 / .................... 55-59..... 65-69..... 70-74..... 75 and over 461,865 458,100 452,589 445,845 438,014 428,373 415,611 398,028 373.582 340,970 299,545 248,456 189,583 232,278 6,196 205,229 405,067 429,795 425,750 413,808 398,155 376,933 3A6.684. V/ f W W Af 305,850 2 a , 134 150,316 75,833 44,830 2/ 44.8 89-5 96.4 97.2 96.6 95.8 94.7 92.8 89.7 80.5 60.5 40.0 19-3 A31.0 441.6 68.0 7.9 - - - 8.2 12.0 H . 9 17.6 28.0 37.8 53.3 80.2 117.8 211.6 376.7 A95.5 576. A - 8.2 12.0 lA-9 17.6 21.9 29.7 A2.1 60.8 85.9 *7 115.7 1A8.9 191.8 262.A - - 6.1 8.1 11.2 19 .A 31.9 95.9 227.8 303.7 3H.0 - 51.3 A6.8 A2.A 38.0 33.7 29.6 25.5 21.8 18.3 15.1 12.2 9.6 - A5.8 A1.3 36.8 32.3 28.0 23.8 19.8 16.0 12 .A 9.2 6.8 5.6 - 1947 10-14..... 15-19..... 20-24..... 25-29..... 30-34..... 35-39..... 40-44..... 45-49..... 50-54..... 55-59..... 60-64..... 65-69..... 70-74...... 75 and over 475,284 472,525 , 468,041 462,739 456,917 449,323 438,330 422,149 398,186 365,102 322,102 267,931 204,978 263,826 18,320 259,889 421,237 447,931 445,494 436,293 422,112 401,886 371,508 331,878 278,618 179,782 89,575 60,944 2/ 55.0 90.0 96.3 97.5 97.1 96.3 95.2 93.3 90.9 86.5 67.1 A3.7 23.1 52A.1 3A6.7 67.2 6.9 - - ■ 5.8 9.5 11.3 12.6 20.7 32.5 A7.9 75.6 106.7 160.5 35A.7 501.8 5AA.3 - 5.3 9.5 11.3 12.6 16.6 2A.A 36.7 56.3 82.1 . 115.1 1A8.6* 189.2 258.8 - _ A.l 8.1 11.2 19.3 2A.6 A5.A 206.1 312.6 285.5 - _ 52.6 A8.0 A3 *5 39.0 3A.5 30.2 26.0 22.1 18.6 15.3 12.A _ 9.9 A7.A A2.8 38.2 33.6 29.1 2A.8 20.7 16.9 13.2 9.7 7.0 5.9 - - 1/ Labor force data for 1940 have been adjusted to allow for a revision in Census Bureau enumeration pro cedures introduced in July 1945* The resulting rates are comparable with those shown in the abridged table for 1947, but may not be compared directly with the detailed tables for 1940. See Appendix, p. 72. In accordance, with current Census definitions, only persons 14 years of age or over are enumerated in the labor force. No meaningful percentage of the population in the labor force could therefore be computed for the age interval 10-14 years. - 37 - There have been pronounced increases in the labor force potential of the male population as compared with 1940 (chart 11). Increases in the station ary labor force are shown for each age interval, with sharp gains recorded among the teen-age youth and, to a lesser extent, among the older men. In the aggregate, the stationary population in 1947 could expect to yield a total of 4,163,013 man-years in the labor force, which is 9 percent more than the cor responding total of 3*825,580 in 1940. 23/ This striking gain was traceable to the increase in also to the higher rates of labor force participation by The relative importance of these factors and 'the changes labor force entries and separations are discussed in the life expectancy and youths and older men. in the pattern of following sections. Lower Age of Labor Force Entry A marked reduction in the average age of entry into the labor force oc curred between 1940 and 1947. Under 1940 conditions, about 43 out of every 100 boys aged 10-14 could expect to begin their work careers in the following 5-year interval, as compared with an entry rate of 44 per 100 for youths who were 15-19 years of age in 1940. In 1947, the 5-year entry rate for boys 1014 years old rose to 52 per 100, while fewer entries occurred at the later ages than under 1940 conditions. 22/ The earlier average age of entrance into the postwar labor force, com pared with 1940, was due in part to the after-effects of World War II. Dur ing wartime, the long-term trend towards longer schooling had been interrupted. Millions of youths left school early to enter the Armed Forces or to take ci vilian jobs, and many others took part-time jobs after school hours. Although many youths quit the labor market after VJ-day, reconversion of the labor force did not bring a complete return to the prewar work pattern. Many young people who had acquired wartime work experience preferred to remain in the postwar labor market. In addition, large numbers of 17-19-year-old youths were still in the Armed Forces in April 1947, some of whom might otherwise have been in school. The changed employment situation also was important in reducing the av erage age of labor force entry. In April 1940, job opportunities for inex perienced youths were limited. About a third of all male youths, 17-18 years of age, who were in the labor force were reported as unemployed, and rela tively few boys attending school had opportunities for part-time employment after school hours. Thus, of 3*870,000 boy% 14-17 years old enrolled in school at the time of the 1940 Census, only 240,000, or 6 percent, were em ployed. In 1947, with jobs generally available and unemployment near the frictional level, over a fifth of the 14-17—year-olds enrolled in school were also employed. 23/ 21/ This total represents the cumulative number in the stationary labor force, obtained by a summation of column 3 in the abridged table. 22/ These findings are consistent with the statistics on the age distri bution of applicants for new Social Security account numbers. In 1940, the modal age of male applicants was 17} in 1947, the modal age was 16. 23/ U. S. Bureau of the Census, School Enrollment of the Civilian Popula tion: April 1947, table 6 (Series P-20, No. 12). CHART II STATIONARY LABOR FORCE MALES, 1 940 AND 1947 Number in Labor Force, of 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 Born Alive Annually THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 1 500 500 1940 1947 400 - 400 300 - 300 200 - 200 100 - 100 0 0 15-19 20*24 2 5 -29 3 0-34 3 5 -3 9 4 0-44 4 5 -4 9 5 0-54 AGE INTERVAL U N IT E D S T A TE S D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR S T A T IS T IC S 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 an d O ver - 39 - Later Age at Separation The 1940 and eration. declined years of labor force potential of the population was also enchanced between 1947 by a reduction in the age-specific rates of labor force sepAs shown in chart 12, the 5-year labor force separation rates at all ages up to 65, with the drop most pronounced for men 55-59 age. Reduced mortality was a major factor in the decline. Probabilities of separation due to death were lower at all age intervals in 1947 than in 1940. Although the decline in mortality continued a long-term trend, the great medical' advances of recent years, coupled with the pronounced rise in living standards, had resulted in a particularly favorable mortality record. Thus, between 1939 and 1947, deaths due to pneumonia and influenza had drop ped from 75.7 to 43«1 par 100,000 population, largely because of the exten sive use of chemotherapy and antibiotics; the tuberculosis death rate had declined by over a fourth, largely as a result of the improvement in the standard of living among low-income families and the increased facilities for treatment and detection of the disease. 24/ In addition, the proportion of men retiring from the labor force before the late sixties declined significantly. The 5-year probability of retire ment for men workers 55-59 years of age dropped by more than 50 percent, from 96 per 1,000 in 1940 to 45 per 1,000 in 1947. A slight decline was also recorded for the 60-64 group; however, the proportion of retirements among men aged 65-69 was somewhat higher in 1947 than in 1940. The higher level of job opportunities in the postwar period appears to have been a major factor in the shift of the retirement pattern. During the war years, age barriers to employment were generally lifted, and many older workers who had previously dropped out of the labor force returned to gainful employment. With the continuance of high employment after the war, many men in their late fifties and sixties remained at work in preference 1 to retiring. 25/ Higher postwar wages and prices also contributed to the later ages at retirement. Coverage under public and private old-age pension programs had expanded during the war years, but the benefits established were generally based on earnings during a period of years preceding the date of retirement. With job opportunities still available for many older men, retirement on pensions became relatively less attractive in the postwar years. 24/ Data from Federal Security Agency, Vital Statistics of the United States, 1947, Part I, table X. An analysis of recent changes in longevity appears in the Statistical Bulletin of the Metropolitan Life Insurance Co., January 1950. 25/ In 1947, there were about 842,000 men, 65 years or over, entitled to 0ASI benefits, but who had continued in covered employment, according to the Bureau of Old Age and Survivors Insurance of the Social Security Adminins tration. CHART 12 FIVE-YEAR SEPARATION RATES FROM THE LABOR FORCE TOTAL MALES, 1940 AND 1947 PER 1,000 IN LABOR FORCE * 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 AGE AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD UNITED STATES DEPARTM ENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 60-64 65-69 70-74 The Increase in Work-Life Expectancy The foregoing changes significantly increased both the total longevity and the working-life span of the American male worker between 1940 and 1947. In 1947, a 20-year-old male worker could expect to live an additional 48.0 years, or 1.2 years more than in 1940, and could look forward to an addi tional 42.8 years in the labor force, a gain of 1.5 years over 1940.. Since the increase in total life expectancy was matched by the lengthening of the work-life span between 1940 and 1947, there was no significant change in the number of years which the average male worker could expect to spend in re tirement. THE TREND OF OLD-AGE DEPENDENCX During the past few centuries, the average expectation of life has in creased markedly as a result of the great progress of medical science and the general rise in living standards. At the same time, a number of social and economic factors have tended to curtail the labor force participation of older men, particularly after age 65. Thus, for the average worker, the period has lengthened during which he must seek support from some source other than his own employment. In order to measure this trend, estimates of working-life expectancy of men were prepared for the year 1900. These estimates, it should be. noted, are not strictly comparable with those shown here for 1940 and 1947, because the mortality experience was limited to white men in the 11 States where death registration was required in 1900. However, the estimates provide a clear indication of the growing period of old-age dependency. Under 1900 conditions of mortality and of labor force participation, a young white man, at age 20, had an average additional life span of 42.2 years, and a working-life expectancy of 39.4 years (table 13). He could expect, therefore, 2.8 years outside of the labor force. Between 1900 and 1940, the life expectancy of a white male, at age 20, increased by 5.5 years. His av erage work-life expectancy, however, increased by only 2.6 years. Therefore, ■the gap between total life expectancy and working-life expectancy had widened to 5.7 years— about double the length in 1900. For those men who survived until age 60 the contrast is equally striking. While the life expectancy of a 60-year-old white man rose by almost 1 year be tween 1900 and 1940, his average working-life expectancy actually dropped more than 2 years, owing to the trend toward earlier retirement. Thus, both com parisons indicate a pronounced widening in the expected period of retirement in the course of the four decades. - 42 - Table 13. — Average number of remaining years of life, in labor force and in retirement; white males, 1900, 1940; total males, 1940, 1947, 1975 Average number of years of life remaining Year Total In labor force \ J gwx _______ In retirement ex - ewx At age 20 White males: 1900 2/........ 1940........... 42.2 47.7 42.0 2.8 5.7 1940........... 1947........... 1975 (A) 2 / .... 1975 (B) 2/ .... 46w8 48.0 52.7 52.7 41.3 42.8 42.8 45.9 5.5 5.2 9.9 6.8 39.4 Total males: At age 40 White males: 1900 2/........ 1940........... ; 27.7 30.1 24.2 24.5 3.2 5.9 29.6 30.2 33-9 33.9 23.8 24.8 24.5 27.2 5.8 5.4 9.4 6.7 Total males: 1940........... 1947........... 1975 (A) 2 / .... 1975 (B) 2/ .... At age 60 White males: 1900 2/........ 1940........... 14.3 15.1 11.5 9.2 2.8 5.9 1940........... 1947........... 1975 (A) 2 J .... 1975 (B) 2 l.... 15.1 15.3 9.2 9.7 7.9 10.5 5.9 5.6 8.9 6.3 Total males: 16.8 16.8 _____ 1/ Labor force estimates for 1900 and 1940 have been adjusted for com parability with the estimates for 1947 and 1975> but may not be compared directly with the detailed tables for 1940. See Appendix, p. 72. 2/ Mortality data based on records of 11 original death registration states. 2 ] A: Assumes continued decline in labor force participation rates for men, 55 years and over, based on 1920-40 trends. B: Assumes labor force participation rates at 1947 levels. 43 CHAR i 13 AVERAGE REMAINING YEARS OF LIFE IN LABOR FORCE AND IN RETIREMENT MALE WORKERS, AGE 20 YEARS YEARS TO 70 60 60 In Retirement Life Expectancy PROJECTION In Labor Force 50 50 40 - 40 30 - 30 20 - 20 - 10 10 1900 * 1947 1940 * DEATH U N IT E D STATES DEPA R TM EN T OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABO R S T A T IS T IC S W H IT E M A L E S , R E G IS T R A T IO N S T A T E S 1975 1975 (A) BASED ON PREW AR TR E N D S (B) BASED ON 1947 P A TTE R N S If this trend simply resulted from a preference for retirement and an increased financial ability to retire, it would not indicate any serious social problem. The weight of the evidence, however, lies in the opposite direction. A number of factors operated to reduce the opportunities of old er workers for gainful employment. There was a steady shift of employment opportunities from agriculture to nonagricultural industries and from small family-type establishments to large-scale business enterprises. Modern in dustry, with its more rigid and impersonal standards, its emphasis on speed and its tendency to set arbitrary age limits for hiring and retirement, of fered relatively fewer opportunities for gainful employment at advanced ages. And superimposed on these long-term trends was the mass unemployment of the 1930‘s, which caused many older men to abandon the search for work, even though they were still capable of a productive role in the economy. This long-term trend contrasts sharply with the experience between 1940 and 1947. As summarized in the preceding section, the shift from a depres sion to a full-employment economy was accompanied by increased labor force participation of men in their late fifties and sixties. As a result, despite the marked increase in longevity, the average period outside the labor force did not widen from 1940 to 1947. On the basis of both the prewar trend and the more recent experience during the past decade, alternative patterns of working life for the future may be projected (chart 13). To illustrate, two estimates of work-life ex pectancy have been prepared for the year 1975* The first assumes 1940 labor force participation rates for the younger adult age groups and a continued downtrend in the proportion of workers among men 55 years and over, based on the rates of decline in the period 1920-40. The second alternative is based on the maintenance of the 1947 rates of labor force participation. Under both assumptions, the estimates of life expectancy are based on a continued favorable trend in mortality, consistent with recent forecasts of the population published by the United States Bureau of the Census. 26/ Thus, under 1975 conditions, the 20-year-old man could expect an average lifetime of almost 73 years, as compared with 68 years in 1947| at age 60, his average lifetime would be extended to almost 77 years— 1 1/2 years above the 1947 level. Under the first alternative of average work-life expectancy of the 43 years, would be the same in 1975 in retirement would widen, however, years in 1947 and less than 3 years progressively earlier retirement, the 20-year-old male worker, slightly under as in 1947. The average life expectancy to almost 10 years, as compared with 5 (for white males) in 1900. 2 6 7 Forecasts of the Population of the United States, 1945-1975 (1947). The Census Bureau "low mortality" projection for 1975 was selected since it was most consistent with the mortality experience between 1945 and 1949. - 45 - The contrast at age 60 is also pronounced. Of an average future life time of almost 17 years, the 60-year-old worker could expect to continue in the labor force for only about 8 years, and would have to provide for about 9 years in retirement. The prospect would, therefore, be for a progressive decline in the work-life span and a further lengthening of retirement. The second alternative, based on the 1947 rates of labor force participa tion, produces quite different results. The gain in total longevity would be added mainly to the period of productive life. At age 20, the average working-life expectancy would be increased by more than 3 years as compared with 1947, and the span of retirement would be raised by 1 1/2 years. At age 60, the future work-life span, would increase by almost a full year as compared with 1947, rather than decline. These comparisons do not, of course, allow for all of the factors which may influence the relative economic burden of dependency in old age. Changes in the age structure of the population, for example, will be significant, and will be influenced by future trends in the birth rate and by future immigration, as well as by the increase in life expectancy. The prospective cost of old-age pensions and related programs will be affected, too, by changes in coverage, eligibility, benefit amounts, and in other provisions of these programs. Changes in the average levels of earnings and of productivity will also significantly affect the relative cost of pro grams for the aging. These comparisons do, however, focus attention on one of the pivotal aspects of the problem of old-age dependency. Individually and collectively, vital decisions will be made in the coming decades as to the disposition of the latter years of life between retirement and continued productive activity. In turn, these decisions will have important repercussions on the sise of the Nation's labor force, the national income, and on the pros pective standard of living of the American population. THE RATE OF LABOR FORCE GROWTH The rate 8 of labor force entry and separation are readily adaptable to a variety of manpower studies. To illustrate one major application, estimates of male labor force entries and separations during the decade 1940-50 were prepared on the basis of the 1947 abridged table for total males. This table was selected, in preference to the table for 1940, as more representative of the experience during the decade as a whole. In estimating the number of men entering tne labor force during the 1940-50 decade, 10-year accession rates for 5-year age groups were computed from the 1947 abridged table. Application of these rates to the male popula tion in each age group in 1940 yields an estimate of about 11,190,000 young - 4 6 - men who began their work careers during the past decade, or an average of about 1.1 million annually, 27/ (table 14). This estimate does not allow for labor force entries due to immigration, and is a "net" figure in the sense that it does not include the much greater volume of shifting between worker and nonworker status of seasonal and intermittent workers. Similar estimates of the number of men who were separated from the labor force during the decade 1940-50 were computed on the basis of the mortality and retirement patterns prevailing in 1947. As shown in table 15, 7.2 million men, or 17.5 percent of the male labor force in April 1940, are estimated to have left the labor force because of death or retirement during the past decade. 28/ Of these, 4*2 million workers, or about three-fifth3, were separated by death, and the remainder retired from gain ful activity owing to disability, receipt of pensions, or other causes. The estimated median age at separation was 62.2 years for all men workers separated during the decade, as compared with a median age of 58.1 years for workers separated because of death, and of 66.1 years, for retirements. The estimate of separations like that for labor force entrants, applies to a "closed group," i.e., the male labor force in 1940. No allow ance was made, for example, for separations of men workers who entered the United States after 1940 or those men who withdrew from the labor force and subsequently resumed year-round work activity. The difference between the estimates of male labor force entries and separations represents the estimated "natural" growth of the male labor force over the decade, 1940-50, i.e., the increase expected because of the changing size and age composition of the male population, exclusive of immigration. As the following tabulation shows, a natural increase of 4*0 million men workers, or about 10 percent, is estimated for the decade 1940-50. This means that, on the average, about 400,000 additional jobs for men workers were required annually during the decade, simply to allow for labor force growth resulting from the increase of the resident male population of working age. 277 On the basis of the 1940 abridged table, the estimated number of male entries into the labor force during the decade 1940-50 was 11,160,000, which is not significantly different from the estimate of 11,190,000 derived from the 1947 table. However, the distribution of male labor force entrants ty age in 1940, based on the 1940 abridged tables, did show a substantially larger proportion of prospective entrants from the age group 15-19 years, and correspondingly fewer entrants from the age groups 5-9 years, than shown in table 14* 28/ on the basis of the 1940 abridged table, about 7,850,000 men workers would have been expected to leave the labor force between 1940 and 1950, because of death or retirement, or about 10 percent more than the estimate based on the 1947 table. Table 14* — Estim ated accessions to the male la b o r fo rc e , 1940-50 l / Age in 1940 Total, ages 0-29 Male population 1940 (in thousands) -- 34.040 Accessions;, 1940-50 Rate (per 1,000 in popu lation) _ Number (in thousands) _____ U . 1 9 0 0-4 5,350 38.2 200 5-9 5,420 544-8 2,950 10-14 5,950 848.3 5,050 15-19 6,180 409.1 2,530 20-24 5,690 73.2 420 25-29 5,450 6.8 40 1/ Based on accession rates for total males, adapted from the abridged table for 1947. Table 15. — Estim ated separations from the male la b o r fo rc e , 1940-50 1 / Age in 1940 Total, 14 years and over .... 14-19 ___ 20-24 .... 25-29 .... 30-34 .... 35-39 .... 40—44 .... 45-49 .... 50-54 .... 55-59 .... 60-64 .... 65 years and over. 1/ 2/ 3/ Total separations 1940-50 Male labor force, 1940 2/ (in thousands) Rate (per 1,000 in labor force) 40,910 - Number 3/ (in thousands) 7,160 Retireiaents Deaths Probability (per 1,000 in labor force) — 2,840 5,080 5,220 4,910 4,610 4,240 3,980 3,480 2,700 1,940 20.2 23.3 33.0 52.5 78.9 119.9 174.2 250.0 458.3 678.5 60 120 170 260 360 510 690 870 1,240 1,320 20.2 23.8 28.9 40.5 59.9 90.2 132.3 184.9 236.6 264.8 1,910 814.1 1,560 378.1 Number (in thousands) 4,230 60 120 150 200 280 380 530 Probability (per 1,000 in labor force) - Number (in thousands) 2,930 _ — - 20 640 510 4.1 12.0 19.0 29.7 41.9 65.1 221.7 413.7 60 90 130 170. 230 600 800 720 436.0 830 640 Based on separation rates for total males, adapted from abridged table for 1947 (Table 12). Estimates are comparable to current MRLF. Adapted from Census releases P-50, No. 2 and P-44, No. 12. Total separations do not necessarily add to separate estimates of deaths and retirements, due to rounding. Humber (in thousands) Hale labor force, April 1940 Accessions, 1940-50 Separations, 1940-50 Natural growth: Number Percent of 1940 male labor force 40,910 11,190 7.160 4,030 9.9* The natural rate of labor force growth differs, of course, from the ac tual growth in the labor force from year to year, primarily because it does not allow for the effects of immigration and for year-to-year changes in the rates of labor force participation. It is, however, a significant measure because, over a period of years, the rate of natural growth of the labor force is largely determined by the age structure of the population and is not readily amenable to control by social and economic influences. From a somewhat different perspective, these comparisons of estimated labor force entries and separations indicate that almost two-thirds of the 11 million young men who began their work careers during the decade 194-0-50 were replacing older men who died or retired. This emphasizes the impor tance, for vocational guidance and related purposes, of determining the pro spective replacement needs in various fields of employment, as one factor affecting relative job opportunities. The development of such estimates will be discussed in the following section. OCCUPATIONAL SEPARATION RATES In the absence Of statistics on the number of persons leaving differ ent occupations, the tables of working life provide a means for estimating occupational replacement needs arising out of deaths and retirements. Giv en the age-specific rates of labor force separation from the tables of work ing life and an age distribution of men by occupation from Census or other sources, it is possible to estimate the probable number of men who will be separated from each occupation because of death or retirement, over a period of years. As an illustration of this application, the estimated number and rate of labor force separations in the period 1940-50 were computed for 33 selec ted occupations by applying 10-year separation rates, based on the 1947 abridged table, to the 1940 age distribution of experienced men workers in these occupations. These calculations disclose a wide range in the result ing rates of labor force separation, by occupation (table 16). Thus, as compared with an average decennial separation rate of 17.5 percent for all men workers, 33 percent of the blacksmiths, forgemen, and hammermen, and about 30 percent of the tailors and furriers, were expected to stop working - 50 Table 16. — Estimated separations due to death or retirement from selected occupations, 1940-50 Occupation Number of Separations; due to men in ex death or reitirement perienced Rate labor (per 1,000 Number force in labor force) 2/ 1940 1/ 86,900 Blacksmiths, forgemen, and hammermen ...... 118,100 Tailors and furriers....... .............. 763,900 Carpenters.................................. 155,400 Nasons, tile setters, and stonecutters..... Cabinetmakers and pattern makers..... ...... 91,100 34,100 Telegraph operators........................ 222,000 Barbers, beauticians and manicurists........ 32,900 Boilermakers....................... . Painters (construction), paperhangers, and 475,200 glaziers............................... . 79,200 Plasterers find cement finishers.......... . 319,300 Stationary engineers, cranemen, hoistmen.... Plumbers and gas and steam fitters...... . 210,100 87,200 Holders, metal............................. College instructors, professors and presidents 55,700 Machinists, millrights, and toolmakers...... 655,900 Structural and ornamental metal workers.... 38,400 21,700 Power station operators.................... Compositors and typesetters........ ........ 166,300 Printing craftsmen, excluding compositors and typesetters.......... .............. 65,500 Roofers and sheet metal workers••*•••«•*•••* 123,800 Bakers.................. .'.................. 133,800 Cooks, except private family..... ...... . 203,200 Bookkeepers, accountants, cashiers, ticket agents.... ............................... 493,800 226,300 Electricians............................... Rollers and roll hands, metal.............. 30,300 Painters, excluding construction and maintenance.................................. 93,800 Mechanics and repairmen, and loom fixers.... 969,600 Waiters and bartenders..................... 323,900 Designers and draftsmen.................... 101,400 Chemists, assayers, and metallurgists...... 58,300 Line-and servicemen, telegraph, telephone, power. ............... •« #•................. 109,800 Chauffeurs, truck drivers, and deliverymen.. 1,758,000 Welders and flame-cutters.............. . 137,000 330 299 264 233 • 229 228 218 217 28,700 35,300 201,700 36,200 20,900 7,800 48,400 7,100 209 205 199 197 188 182 176 169 169 168 99,300 16,200 63,500 41,400 16,400 10,100 115,400 6,500 3,700 27,900 166 166 155 153 10,900 20,600 20,700 31,100 150 144 134 74,100 32,600 4,100 131 131 129 125 114 12,300 127,000 41,800 12,700 6,600 113 94 93 12,400 165,300 12,700 1/ Includes employed men classified by current occupation and men seeking work or on public emergency work, classified by usual occupation. Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census, Series P-14, No. 13 (1943)* 2/ In computing occupational separation rates, age distributions by occu pation were based on data for employed men and men seeking work. Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, The Labor Force, (Sample Statistics), Occupational Characteristics, table 1. - 51 - in the decade 194-0-50. In contrast, decennial labor force separation rates of only about 10 percent were estimated for welders, truck drivers and line men, occupational fields which had a predominantly young labor force in 194-0. Clearly, oilier factors being equal, occupations with the greatest number of prospective losses because of death or retirement will offer the greatest job opportunities. Thus, it is significant that, although electricians slight ly outnumbered plumbers in 1940, the estimated number of labor force separa tions of plumbers during 1940-50 was about a fourth greater than among elec tricians. This means that, if employment trends were similar for the two occupations, relatively more jobs would have opened up for plumbers than for electricians over the decade, owing to the higher replacement needs. For purposes of appraising job prospects, replacement needs arising out of deaths and retirements must be considered in conjunction with all other factors affecting the demand for labor in various fields of work. In such industries as coal-mining, the presence of a large proportion of older workers has been due to a long-term employment downtrend. This is also true of cer tain occupations, such as telegraphy, which have been subject to technological displacement. However, in other fields of employment, relatively high replacement needs may appear in combination with a rising trend of employment. Thus, the build ing trades inherited a shortage of younger workers from the depression decade of the thirties, when few apprentices were trained. In the decade 1940-50, the high level of construction activity and the relatively heavy losses be cause of death and retirement combined to create a very favorable employment outlook. A somewhat similar situation existed in certain branches of the ap parel industry, which in the past were staffed largely by immigrants and which, in recent years, have become increasingly aware of the need for attracting new workers. A number of other important considerations enter into the use of estimated separation rates, based on experience for the labor force as a whole, for oc cupational outlook analysis. Occupational-Life Expectancy v. Working-Life Expectancy In certain occupational fields, including most of the professions and skilled trades, deaths and labor force retirements account for the greatest proportion of separations among experienced men workers. Relatively few men in such occupations are likely to shift to unrelated types of work, after hav ing invested a substantial period in training and education for their chosen field, except under extreme pressure (such as wartime mobilization or protrac ted unemployment) or unusual personal circumstances. In such occupations, the individual's working-life expectancy in the occupation may not differ signifi cantly from his total work-life expectancy and, therefore, estimated rates of labor force separation provide a significant guide to prospective replacement needs. These, moreover, are generally the occupations in which vocational guidance and planning are most important. - 52 - In other occupations, deaths and retirements account for only a small proportion of total separations of men workers. This is particularly true of many unskilled jobs and certain "entry" occupations, such as office boys or shipping clerks, for which turn-over is characteristically high, because the entrants tend to move on to more skilled and responsible jobs. It is typical, too, of workers in certain highly skilled occupations, such as ath letes, dancers, and air-line pilots, in which the individual's occupationallife expectancy is much shorter than his total working-life expectancy be cause of exacting physical standards. Professional athletes and ballet dancers, for example, are considered "old" at 40. In such occupations, ob viously, estimates of death or retirement rates based on experience for the labor force as a whole will not be very helpful in determining replacement needs. Differential Mortality Very little current information is available on the extent of differ ences in mortality between occupations, for men of the same age. Earlier studies, both in the United States and abroad, revealed a pronounced and fairly consistent pattern of differentials in mortality rates among men classified in broad occupational groups, reflecting differences in living standards and in their way of life. Farm workers, in general, had much lower mortality rates than nonfarm workers. Among nonfarm occupations, the lowest age-specific mortality rates were among white-collar workers, such as proprietors, professionals, and clerks; the highest mortality rates were among the unskilled and semiskilled manual groups. 29/ Some notable differences also appeared within the Inroad occupational groups, since some types of work are more hazardous and involve more "wear and tear" on the human organism than others* For example, relatively high mortality rates were found among manual workers in the hazardous mining and lumbering occupations. Similarly, because of their strenuous life and con stant exposure to disease, physicians experienced mortality rates consider ably higher than other professional workers. On the other hand, the ministry and teaching were among the occupations with the lowest age-specific death rates. If reliable mortality data are available for an occupation which indi cate significant differentials as compared with the broader population group, of course it is desirable to substitute the specific occupational death rates for those in the life tables. However, it is likely that the absence of separate mortality information will not seriously impair the usefulness of the estimates in the large majority of occupations. 29/ For statistics on differential mortality by occupation, see in par ticular: Jessamine Whitney, Death Bates by Occupation, National Tuberculo sis Association, 1934, and The Registrar General's Decennial Supplement, England and Wales, 1931, Part Ila, Occupational Mortality, H. M. Stationery Office, 1938. - 53 Differential Retirements Even in the absence of any comprehensive statistical data, it is apparent that significant differentials in age-specific retirement rates are likely to exist among occupations. Differences in the nature of the work, the degree of exposure to disabilities, the coverage and provisions of pension plans, the extent of opportunities for self-employment, and many other factors may influ ence the retirement patterns prevailing in different occupations. The use of over-all retirement rates is, therefore, in no sense a substitute for a de tailed analysis of the actual retirement patterns prevailing in individual oc cupations, where such information can be developed. They do, however, provide a useful point of departure for estimating the effect of differences in age distribution among the various occupations upon the prospective replacement needs due to retirement. ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF WORKING-LIFE EXPECTANCY The method of estimating the working-life expectancy and related func tions in the tables of working life represents one of several possible al ternatives. Among the principal alternatives are (1) the preparation of estimates of working-life expectancy for all persons living at a given age, rather than for those in the labor force at that age} (2) the use of differ ent definitions of labor force or employment status; and (3) the development of tables based on the actual experience of a generation during its life time, rather than upon the pattern of mortality and of labor force participa tion prevailing at a given time. Each of these alternative methods is dis cussed briefly. Work-Life Expectancy of the Population In the tables of working life, the average work-life expectancy (8wx ) has been defined as the average number of years in the labor force that re main for a group of persons in the labor force at a given age. It has, ac cordingly, been computed by dividing the cumulative man-years in the labor force remaining (Twx ) by the number of persons in the life-table labor force at the beginning of the year of age (lwy ) (See Appendix, p. 67). For certain purposes it,may be desirable to estimate the average worklife expectancy of all persons living in a given year of age, rather than of only those in the labor force. This measure, hereafter referred to as (ew'x), is computed by dividing the cumulative man-years in the labor force remaining (Twx ) by the number in the life-table population at the beginning of the year of age (lx ). 30/ Since the numerator is the same in both cases, it follows that the value of 8w'x will be smaller than 8wx in all cases, in proportion to the ratio lw^/l^j-, i.e., the worker rate. 30/ This definition was employed by John D. Durand in estimating the "av erage years in labor force" in The Labor Force in the United States, 1890-1960, Social Science Research Council, 194# (p. 259). - 54 - Each of the preceding measures has certain advantages for analytical purposes* The concept employed in the tables of working life is more con sistent with the conventions! concept of life expectancy, because it deals with the expectation of survival as a worker of persons who are workers at a given time. The alternative measure is, however, useful in gaging changes in the over-all length of working life, because it is influenced by changes in the age of labor force entry, as well as by the age of separation from the labor force. On the basis of the latter measure, for example, it is pos sible to compare the average working-life expectancy at birth with the total life expectancy (table 17). Table 17: Average life expectancy and work-life expectancy, at birth Average workinglife expectancy Average number of years of life outside of labor force 0 48.2 62.5 32.1 39.1 16.1 23.4 61.2 64.2 38.3 41.6 22.9 22.6 O 00 0 (DO O Average life expectancy eo - ew'o White males: 1900 1 / .... 1 9 4 0 ...... Total males: 1 9 4 0 ...... 1947 ...... 1/ Mortality rates based on original death registration States of 1900. - 55 - Under 1900 conditions, the average white male's life expectancy at birth was about 48.2 years and the average work-life, 32.1 years. He could therefore expect to spend about 16.1 years, or a third of his average life span outside of the labor force, either in school or in retirement. The work-life expectation at birth was considerably lower than a corresponding value at age 20 (37.6 years) since a considerable proportion of new born babies could not be expected to survive until working age. Between 1900 and 1940, the average life expectancy at birth increased by about 14 years, for white males. Only half of this gain was reflected in the increase in work-life expectancy. As a result of the long-term trends towards longer schooling and earlier retirement, the average period of dependency (i.e., the expected number of years outside of the labor force) also increased by about 7 years over this period. Between 1940 and 1947, a significant reversal of this pattern occurred. The total life expectancy and the work-life expectancy, at birth, both in creased by about 3 years, since the continued reduction in mortality was accompanied by an earlier entry into the labor force and later retirement. As a result, the expected period of dependency showed no significant change over this period and declined as a proportion of the total life expectancy at birth. A more detailed analysis of the changes between 1940 and 1947, com paring the alternative measures of working-life expectancy, is shown in table 18. The values of 8w'x are lower at each age than the corresponding 8wx value but differences are greatest for the youngest and oldest age groups, which have the largest proportions of the population outside the labor force. Because of the decrease in the age of entry into thg labor force between 1940 and 1947 and the later age at retirement, the ew»x func tion shows a somewhat greater gain over this period, at both age extremes, than does the average work-life expectancy of those in the labor force (8wx ). Alternative Measures of Employment Status In the present study, the worker rates are derived from Census data and are therefore consistent with the Census definition of the "labor force." Included in the labor force, under the Census definition, are all persons L4 years and over, not in institutions, who are either employed (for pay or profit, or as unpaid family workers) or unemployed. In its classification of the population, the Census definition gives priority to labor force activity over other status, such as student, housewife, or re tirement. As a result, the Census includes in the labor force, at both age extremes, and particularly among youth of school-age, a considerable propor tion of persons engaged in casual and part-time work. A measure based on major activity or status (e.g., worker, student, retirement), would yield a somewhat more realistic pattern of the ages at which young men permanently enter the year-round labor force, or of the ages at which older men withdraw from full-time work activity. Owing to lack of detailed data, however, it was impossible to develop estimates of working life based on that concept. Tabla 18. — Age last birthday 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 4 5 50 55 60 65 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... Average number of years remaining in labor force, total males 19AO, 1947 For persons in labor force at age x (8wx ) For persons alive at age x (8wfx ) 1947 1940 41.6 38.3 43.5 43.7 43.7 41.3 37.2 32.8 28.3 24.0 19.8 15.9 12.2 8.8 5.5 41.0 41.3 41.5 39.7 35.7 31.4 27.1 22.9 18.9 15.0 11.4 8.0 4.9 Increase 1940-47 3.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 .9 .9 .8 .8 .6 1947 1940 _ . - - - — - 47.4 42.8 38.2 33.6 29.1 45.8 41.3 36.8 32.3 28.0 23.8 19.8 16.0 12.4 9.2 6.8 24.8 20.7 16.9 13.2 9.7 7.0 Increase 1940-47 - 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 .9 .9 .8 .5 .2 Whereas the above alternative would probably have the effect of reducing slightly the estimated average work-life expectancy, a maximum measure would be obtained by including in the labor force all persons who were employed or unemployed at any time during the year, rather than at a given time, such as during the Census survey week. Some indication of the over-all difference in magnitude resulting from application of the former concept can be obtained from a recent Census Bureau survey. There were, in December 1947, about 44*8 million males in the United States who had done some work for pay or profit in 1947. This total was about 6.5 percent greater than the seasonal peak num ber of 42.1 million employed for pay or profit in August 1947, and about 12.0 percent above the corresponding level of 40.0 million in April 1947. 31/ Anal ysis of the Census data indicates that a relatively large proportion of the males with work experience during 1947, but who were not in the labor force in December 1947, were school-age youth and older men.. The use of a measure of labor force participation based on activity during any time of the year would therefore have the effect of showing an earlier average age of labor force en try and a later average retirement age. 3l/ Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census, Work Experience of the Population in 1947, Series P-50, No. 8j and Monthly Report on the Labor Force. The above comparison was limited to persons employed for wages or salaries and the selfemployed. The contrast would probably have been even more pronounced if com parable data were available for other labor force members (i.e., unpaid family workers and unemployed). - 57 - Apart from the lack of detailed statistics needed to develop this concept, such a measure would be undesirable for general use in the measurement of work ing-life expectancy, because it would give excessive weight to the casual or intermittent work activities of "fringe" groups. It might prove useful, how ever, for special analytical purposes, such as measurement of the expected in come-earning potential over the life-span. Generation Tables of Working Life In 1dae conventional life tables, the expectation of life and related func tions axe based upon the mortality rates prevailing during a particular year or period of years. The assumption is that a cohort of 100,000 persons b o m alive will be exposed to this fixed pattern as it passes through the life span. Similarly, in the tables of working life it is assumed that this cohort will be subject to the age-specific worker rates existing at a given time. Since both mortality rates and the probabilities of labor force participation have been subject to decided long-tern trends, the use of this more or less instan taneous picture will not conform to the actual experience of any particular generation over time. In connection with mortality data, it has been possible to construct "gen eration life tables" whereby the mortality experience of actual cohorts of the population is traced from one decade to the next. These tables have proved val uable for many analytical purposes. 32/ It is at least theoretically possible to construct similar tables of working life based on the labor force and occu pational statistics of the Decennial Censuses of Population. However, over a period of decades, there have been significant changes in the Census defini tions of labor force and occupational status, in the seasonal timing of the de cennial Census enumerations, in the age groupings shown, and in other Census procedures. Such changes render any precise computations based on comparisons of these data extremely hazardous. For these reasons, no attempt has been made to develop a "generation" table of working life for the present study. % / For a summary of applications of generation life tables, see Dublin, Lotka, and Spiegelman, op. cit. (pp. 174.-182). - 58 - TECHNICAL APPENDIX DETAILED TABLE OF WORKING LIFE, 1940 In applying the life table technique to the measurement of working life in the present study, an attempt was made to maintain the essential features of the standard life table structure. A number of departures from conven tional methodology have been introduced, however, partly because of the nature of the data and partly for ease in presentation. For the latter reason, the 1940 tables shown in this report omit several functions which are included in conventional life tables. A detailed table of working life for total males is shown in this Ap pendix (table la) for purposes of technical exposition. A description of the columns in this detailed table and of the methods of computation follows. Year of Age (x to x+1) (Column All of the variables in the table are expressed in terms of the exact birthday (x) or of the interval between successive birthdays (x to x+l), in accordance with standard life table practice. Mortality Rate (1,000'qx) (Column 2) The expected number of deaths between successive birthdays per 1,000 persons living at the beginning of the year of age are shown under the con ditions of mortality prevailing at the time of the life table. The rate of mortality is the keystone of the conventional life table, and all other vari ables pertaining to the life-table population and total life expectancy are derived from it. ( The rates of mortality of males, by color and urban-rural residence, were derived from the United States Bureau of the Census, United States Abridged Life Tables, 1939, Urban and Rural, by Regions, Color and Sex. Single-year mortality rates for the separate color and residence groups were interpolated graphically from these tables, which presented rates at 5-year intervals only. Since the 1939 abridged tables did not show mortality rates for total males and for certain other combined groups, it was necessary to derive these functions from the mare detailed groupings. For these combined groups, the mortality rates were computed from the weighted estimates of the number liv ing at successive birthdays (lx ), l/ by the following formula: _ l/ See p. 61 ~ ^~x+l - 59 - The.1939 abridged tables were used in the present study, in preference to the Census Bureau’s detailed United States Life and Actuarial Tables, 1939-41, because the former were the only official United States life tables presenting separate mortality rates by urban-rural residence. The mortality rates shown in the 1939 tables are slightly higher, up to about age 65, than in the corresponding tables for 1939-41, but are slightly lower above that age. The net effect on the estimates of total life expectancy is very slight, however. The maximum difference between the estimated life expectancies for the period of working life is at age 14, when the average number of years of life remaining for total males is 52.2 years, based on the 1939 tables and 52.36 years based on the 1939-41 tables. Mortality rate differentials between urban and rural residents and be tween whites and nonwhites must be interpreted with caution. Evidence exists that reporting of deaths is less complete in rural areas than in urban dis tricts. Underregistration of deaths of rural nonwhites is particularly pro nounced in parts of the South. There is also evidence that rural residents are reported as residents of adjacent urban communities on death certificates. These biases have the effect of exaggerating the mortality differentials in favor of rural residents as shown in the life tables. However, available evidence (including earlier studies of differential mortality by occupation) indicates that death rates for men in the middle and upper-age spans would remain lower for the rural population as a whole than for urban residents, even after allowing for these biases. Humber Living at Beginning of Year of Age (Lg.) (Column 3) This column shows the number of persons who would survive to the age in dicated from a group of 100,000 persons born alive, subject throughout life to the rates of mortality of column 2 . 2/ Since the mortality rates were not available from the 1939 abridged tables for certain combined groups (i.e., total males, total urban, and total rural) the corresponding lx values for these groups were derived from these tables by a weighting procedure. Thus, for total males, the lx values for total whites and nonwhites were weighted by their proportion of total male births, adjusted for underenumeration, in the total population. The weight ing ratios were based on the enumerated population of white and nonwhite males at age 2 in 1940, as shown in the 16th Census of Population, survived back to age 0 on the basis of the mortality rates for the respective groups, as shown in the 1939 life tables. Use of this method compensates for the relatively greater underenumeration of nonwhite infants, which is largely concentrated in the first 2 years of life. A similar weighting procedure was used for developing the functions for total urban and total rural males. 2/ The use of an initial group of 100,000 is consistent with standard life table practice, and is designed for ease in computing life table val ues. This has resulted, however, in some cases, in presenting data in a greater number of places than is warranted by the statistical reliability of the data. 60. Table la. - Detailed table of working life, males, 194-0 Tear of age x to x+1 "ito rta lity ---Average nusber Percent of i1 rata _____Umber liv in g of 100.000 bora alive____ of years population 1 Nuriber dying In year of l if e in labor 1[ par 1,000 In At beginning renalninw of age _____£2121____ «i alive at of year year of and a ll In year i( At beginning beginning of of age age later of year of years of ana : are JBK of , 0 1,000 q, ; *x •x wx ! 1Average nusber In year of age In year of age and a ll later years ^ i / s : At beginning > of yew * of age * ; ^ of years in 1 labor force s At beginning : of year : of awe 0 ; ®"x 14-13 15-lb lb-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 92,184 92,042 91,890 91,725 91,542 91,341 92,115 91,968 91,812 91,638 91,446 91,236 4,812,653 4,720,538 4,628,570 4,536,758 4,445,120 4,353,674 52.2 51.3 50.4 49.5 48.6 47.7 6.1 12.2 23.0 38.9 57.1 71.9 87,972 87,823 87,656 87,473 87,272 88,113 4,111,252 4,023,139 3,935,167 3,847,3a 3,759,688 3,672,a 5 88,179 88,043 87,897 87,740 87,565 87,372 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 91,122 90,890 90,648 90,400 90,142 91,008 90,771 90,526 90,273 90,011 4,262,438 4,171,430 4,080,659 3,990,133 3,899,860 46.8 45.9 45.0 44.1 43.3 80.6 85.6 89.1 91.6 93.1 87,054 86,827 86,593 86,351 86,100 3,584,943 3,497,889 3 ,a i,0 6 2 3,3 a , 469 3,238,118 87,163 86,9a 86,709 86,472 86,225 39.3 38.4 37.6 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 3.0 * .l 3.2 3.3 3.4 89,876 89,602 89,320 89,030 88,732 89 ,7a 89,463 89,177 88,883 88,581 3,809,849 3,720,108 3,630,645 3 ,5 a , 468 3,452,585 a .4 a .5 40.6 39.8 38.9 94.0 94.7 95.1 95.4 95.6 85,8a 85,576 85,302 85 ,o a 84,732 3,152,018 3,066,176 2,980,600 2,895,298 2,810,277 85,971 85,709 85,439 85,162 84,877 36.7 35.8 34.9 34.0 33.1 30-31 31-32 32-33 33-34 34-35 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 88,426 88,112 87,786 87,444 87,086 88,271 87,953 87,619 87,269 86,902 3,364,004 3,275,733 3,187,780 3,100,161 3,012,892 38.0 37.2 36.3 35.5 34.6 95.6 95.7 95.7 95.6 95.6 84,436 84,131 83,812 83,452 83,060 2,725,545 2 , 6a , 109 2,556,978 2,473,166 2,389,714 84,584 84,284 83,972 83,632 83,256 32.2 31.3 30.5 29.6 28.7 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.8 86,711 86,321 85,911 85,477 85,016 86,520 86,122 85,700 85,254 84,777 2,925,990 2,839,470 2,753,348 2,667,648 2,582,394 33.7 32.9 32.0 31.2 30.4 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.1 95.0 82,636 82,173 81,664 81,109 80,501 2,306,654 2,224,018 2 ,U 1,845 2,060,181 1,979,072 82,848 82,404 81,918 81,386 80,805 27.8 27.0 26.1 25.3 24.5 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 44-45 6.2 6.6 7.0 7.6 8.2 84,522 83,998 83,444 82,856 82,227 84,268 83,729 83,160 82,553 81,901 2,497,617 2,413,349 2,329,620 2,246,460 2,163,907 29.5 28.7 27.9 27.1 26.3 94.8 94.5 94.3 94.1 93.9 79,849 79,162 78,4a 77,681 76,865 1,898,5a 1,818,722 1,739,560 1,661,118 1,583,437 80,175 79,506 78,802 78,062 77,273 23.7 22.9 22.1 21.3 20.5 45-46 46-47 47-48 48-49 49-50 8.8 9.6 10.3 11.1 12.0 81,553 80,832 80,060 79,235 78,352 81,205 80,458 79,661 78,809 77,895 2,082,006 2,000,801 1,920,343 1,840,682 1,761,873 25.5 24.8 24.0 23.2 22.5 93.6 93.3 93.0 92.7 92.3 75,996 75,069 74,078 73,026 71,909 1,506,572 1,430,576 1,355,507 1,281,429 1,208,403 76,430 75,532 74,574 73,552 72,468 19.7 18.9 18.2 17.4 16.7 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.2 17.4 77,408 76,402 75,333 74,200 72,998 76,9a 75,883 74,783 73,616 72,379 1,683,978 1,607,057 1,531,174 1,456,391 1,382,775 a .8 a .o 20.3 19.6 18.9 91.9 91.6 91.1 90.7 90.1 70,723 69,471 68,144 66,733 65,225 1,136,494 1,065,771 996,300 928,156 861,a 3 71,316 70,097 68,808 67,438 65,979 15.9 15.2 a .5 13.8 13.1 55-56 56-57 57-58 58-59 59-60 18.7 20.0 21.4 22.8 24.4 71,728 70,390 66,982 67,506 65,964 71,076 69,704 68,261 66,752 65,177 1,310,396 1,239,320 1,169,616 1,101,355 1,034,603 18.3 17.6 17.0 16.3 15.7 89.5 88.8 88.0 87.0 85.7 63,620 61,902 60,057 58,051 55,828 796,198 732,578 670,676 610,619 552,568 6 4,0 2 62,761 60,980 59,054 56,940 12.4 11.7 11.0 10.3 9 .7 60-61 61-62 62-63 63-64 64-65 26.2 28.2 30.4 32.7 35.2 64,352 62,664 60,894 59,044 57,114 63,528 61,800 59,989 58,099 56,129 969,426 905,898 844,098 784,109 726,010 15.1 14.5 13.9 13.3 12.7 83.8 81.7 79.2 76.2 72.5 53 ,a s 50,469 47,512 44,272 40,704 496,740 443,525 393,056 345,5a 301,272 54,522 5 1,8a 48,990 45,892 a , 488 8.6 8.0 7.5 7.1 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 37.9 40.8 43.9 47.2 50.6 55,104 53,018 50,856 48,625 46,332 54,080 51,955 49,757 47,493 45,171 669,881 615,801 563,846 514,089 466,596 12.2 11.6 11.1 10.6 10.1 67.4 62.3 57.5 53.0 48.8 36,426 32,354 28,604 25,177 22,058 260,568 2 2 4 ,ia 191,788 163,184 138,007 38,565 34,390 30,479 26,890 23,618 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.8 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 54.4 58.4 62.8 67.7 73.5 43,988 a , 597 39,168 36,709 34,222 42,804 40,390 37,946 35,472 32,971 4 a , 425 378,6a 338,231 300,235 264,813 9.6 9.1 8.6 8.2 7.7 44.9 a .2 37.8 34.6 31.6 19,a 7 16,652 H ,3 a 12,266 10 ,a o 115,949 96,732 80,080 65,739 53,473 20,638 17,934 15,496 13,304 11,338 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.7 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 79.9 87.0 94.8 103.2 112.1 31,708 29,176 26,638 24,U2 a , 623 30,445 27,906 25,369 22,855 20,391 231,8a 201,397 173,491 148,122 125,267 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.1 5.8 28.8 26.1 23.7 a .4 19.3 8,758 7,296 6,013 4,896 3,935 43,063 34,305 27,009 20,996 16,100 9,584 8,027 6,654 5,454 4 ,a 6 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 121.6 131.4 141.9 152.7 163.9 19,198 16,864 14,648 12,570 10,650 18,005 15,724 13,571 11,568 9,732 104,876 86,871 71,147 57,576 46,008 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.3 17.3 15.5 13.7 12.2 10.7 3,118 2,432 1,866 1,406 1,039 12,165 9,047 6,615 4,749 3,343 3,526 2,775 2,149 1,636 1,222 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 175.7 187.6 200.1 212.4 224.9 8,904 7,340 5,963 4,770 3,757 8,076 6,605 5 ,3 a 4,220 3,294 36,276 28,200 a , 595 16,274 12,054 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 9.3 8.1 6.9 5.9 4.9 752 532 367 247 161 2,304 1,552 1,020 653 406 896 6a 450 307 204 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 237.6 250.5 263.2 275.7 288.3 2,912 2,220 1,664 1,226 888 2,529 1,910 1,418 1,035 742 8,760 6,231 4,321 2,903 1,868 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.1 4.0 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.6 102 63 37 a 245 143 80 a 22 132 82 50 29 16 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 95-96 96-97 97-98 302.2 315.2 327.8 632 441 302 522 360 244 1,126 604 244 1.8 1.4 .8 1.1 .8 .5 6 3 1 10 4 1 9 4 2 1.1 1.0 .5 ' 12 46.6 45.7 a .8 43.8 42.9 a .o a .i 40.2 9.1 2 / In ages H -31 inclusive, hypothetical values of lwz , Lez and Tvz were coaputed on the basis of the peak worker rate, at age 32, In order to eliminate the effect of labor force accessions. (See page ) - 61 Table la. - Detailed table of working life, males, 1940 - Continued Year of age x to x+1 (12) Mortality . rate Par 1,000 livin g in year (91) (lO) (90) _____ (18)_______ ___ (16)______ : Retirement Due to death :_____ Due to retirement_______ * rate Total______ ;_____ : s Number, of 1 Rate per : Number, of 1 Per 1,000 Number, of 100,000 « s 100,000 s in labor : Bar 1,000 la 100,000 1,000 in born :labor force in : : bora s labor force in born 1 force in rear of are : year of are : alive « ___year of are l,0 0 O ($ j 1,000 rQg 1,000 <j£ ; 1,00C ^ 1,000 Q® ; ** ! r« : 8* ____________________________________ Between realrs of age______________________________________ ______________________________ _ _ _ 1.6 1.6 60.7 9 9 — — — 1.7 1.7 19 19 108.5 — — — 158.8 40 40 1.9 1.9 — — — 2.1 75 2.1 181.4 75 — — 120 120 147.7 2.3 2.3 164 2.5 86.5 164 2.5 na (33) (1-5) Accessions to labor force Rate per Number, of 100,000 1,000 born liv in g in 1,000 Ox ** 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 4,523 3,213 2,182 1,417 810 49.7 35.4 24.1 15.7 9.0 191 210 226 240 251 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 191 210 226 240 251 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 583 394 2a 142 62 6.5 4-4 2.7 1.6 .7 262 271 280 288 296 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 262 271 280 288 296 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 30-31 31-32 32-33 33-34 34-35 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 26 304 320 360 392 424 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.1 304 320 335 350 366 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 35-36 36-37 37-38 38-39 39-40 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.0 .3 — — — " __ 463 509 555 606 652 5.6 6.2 6.8 7.5 8.1 380 402 424 454 483 40-41 41-42 42-43 43-44 44-45 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.9 8.5 687 720 761 816 869 8.6. 9.1 9.7 10.5 11.3 511 538 573 614 654 45-46 46-47 47-48 48-49 49-50 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.6 12.5 927 991 1,052 1,117 1,186 12.2 13.2 14.2 15.3 16.5 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 13.5 14.5 15.6 16.8 18.0 1,252 1,327 1,411 1,508 1,605 55-56 56-57 57-58 58-59 59-60 19.3 20.7 22.1 23.6 25.3 1,718 1,845 2,006 2,223 2,613 60-61 61-62 62-63 63-64 64-65 27.2 29.3 31.5 33.9 36.5 2,746 2,957 3,240 3,568 4,278 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 39.3 42.3 45.5 48.9 52.4 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 56.4 60.5 6 5 .2 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 83.4 90.9 99.1 107.8 117.0 -— — — _ — — — — __ — — — — __ — — — " __ _ __ — " 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 126.7 136.9 147.6 158.7 170.2 — — — — — — — ” 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 182.1 194.4 206.9 219.5 232.2 __ — — " 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 244.9 257.6 270.4 283.4 296.6 _ — — " ... — — — — 95-96 96-97 97-98 310.0 323.6 337.4 ' 70.5 76.6 5,591 9,979 14,580 16,623 13,507 7,692 — — — — __ — — — __ — — — " — — — " „ — — — — „ __ — — — ” __ — “ — — __ — — " __ — -— " -— — — __ — — — ” __ — — — -__ — — -” __ — — — — — — — " __ __ — — — — — — _ ~ — — — ~ — — ~ — — _ — __ — 58 _ — .3 .5 .7 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.6 6.0 83 107 131 154 169 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 6.8 7.3 7.9 8.5 6.4 176 182 188 202 215 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 699 743 793 847 898 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.6 12.5 228 248 259 270 288 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 17.7 19.1 20.7 22.6 24.6 955 1,007 1,063 1,121 1,168 13.5 14.5 15.6 16.8 17.9 297 320 348 387 437 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.7 4.3 4.7 5.2 5.9 6.7 27.0 29.8 33.4 38.3 46.8 1,222 1,275 1,321 1,358 1,396 19.2 20.6 22.0 23.4 25.0 496 570 685 865 1,217 7.8 9.2 11.4 14.9 21.8 7.9 9.3 11.6 15.1 22.1 51.6 58.6 68.2 80.6 105.1 1,432 1,458 1,468 1,465 1,433 26.9 28.9 30.9 33.1 35.2 1,314 1,499 1,772 2,103 2,845 24.7 29-7 37.3 47.5 69.9 25.1 30.2 37.9 48.3 71.1 111.8 1,377 1,317 1,253 1,183 37.8 40.7 43.8 47.0 50.3 2,695 2,433 2,174 1,936 1,731 74.0 75.2 76.0 76.9 78.5 75.4 76.8 77.7 78.7 80.5 l,oa 1,652 144.7 151.3 158.7 967 896 828 763 54.2 58.1 62.5 67.5 73.3 1,524 1,344 1,179 1,028 889 79.3 80.7 82.2 83.8 85.4 81.5 83.1 84.8 86.7 88.6 1,462 1,283 1,117 961 817 166.9 175.9 185.7 196.3 207.7 699 634 569 503 438 79.8 86.9 94.6 102.8 111.4 763 649 548 458 379 87.1 89.0 91.1 93.5 96.3 90.8 93.1 95.6 98.6 102.0 686 219.9 232.9 246.7 261.3 276.7 260 210 166 376 315 120.4 129.8 139.7 149.9 160.3 310 251 200 157 121 99.5 103.1 107.0 111.4 116.4 105.9 110.2 115.0 120.5 126.5 292.9 309.9 327.7 346.3 365.7 128 97 71 51 35 171.0 182.0 193.0 203.9 214-7 92 68 49 35 24 121.9 127.9 134.7 142.4 151.0 133.3 140.7 149.1 158.6 169.2 385.9 406.9 428.7 451.3 474.7 23 15 9 5 16 11 7 4 3 225.2 235.5 245.7 255.7 265.6 3 160.7 171.4 183.0 195.6 209.1 181.1 194.2 208.7 224.3 2a.1 498.9 524.9 552.7 2 1 1 275.3 284.7 293.7 1 1 0 223.6 240.2 259.0 4,072 3,750 3,427 3,119 2 ,8 U 2,565 2,311 2,075 1,856 566 460 367 287 220 165 120 86 59 39 26 16 9 6 3 2 1 115.9 119.8 123.9 128.8 133.5 138.8 1,110 25 42 — — — — — — — — — — .2 .5 .8 , ’ 259.2 '280-? 303.6 - 62 - Number Living in Year of Age (Lg) (Column A) The "stationary population? or the number of persons who would be living in any age interval under the assumption of 100,000 live births annually, subject throughout life to the specified mortality rates, is shown in this col umn. Under these fixed conditions, if births were distributed evenly throughout each year and if there were no migration, a census taken at any time would al ways show the same total population and the same number of persons in each age interval. On the assumption of an even distribution of deaths within each year of age, in ages 14 and over, the Lg function was computed by linear interpolation between the corresponding lx values, as follows: t* - V2 (V lx.!) Ihis method, though subject to some slight statistical bias, is consistent with prevailing actuarial practice. jj/ Number of Man-years of Life Remaining (Tx ) (Column 5) The total man-years of life remaining at a given age and at all succeeding years for persons alive at the exact year of age are given in this column. It may be expressed algebraically as follows: = S x=n 0 * ) Average Number of Tears of Life Remaining (ex ) (Column 6) The average life expectancy of persons in the stationary population is measured from the exact year of age. It is computed by dividing the cumulative man-years of life remaining, V by the number living at the beginning of the year of age, lx . 17 United States Life and Actuarial Tables, 1939-41, (p. 133) - 63 - This column may also be defined as the average life expectancy of work ers at any given age, if it is assumed that the mortality rates for persons in the labor force are identical with those for the total population, i j Percent of Population in Labor Force (wx) (Column 7) The percent of the population in the labor force, or the "worker rate," bears the same pivotal relationship to the estimates of working-life expec tancy as does the mortality rate to the computation of total life expectancy. Unlike the mortality function, which describes a rate during a specified time interval, the "worker rate" is based on a cross section of the popula tion at a given point in time, such as the Census week of 194-0. However, if it is assumed that the age-specific worker rates remain constant, apart from seasonal fluctuations, the differences between successive single-year worker rates at a given time may serve as a reasonable approximation of the net an nual rates of labor force accession or separation between successive ages, after allowing for mortality. This is a fundamental assumption inherent in the construction of tables of working life. In the tables of working life, crude worker rates for men, by urbanrural residence, color, and single years of age were derived from the Six teenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, The Labor Force (Sam ple Statistics), Employment and Personal Characteristics, table 1. Worker rates for rural residents were computed by combining the labor force and population data for rural-farm and rural-nonfarm areas. The employment characteristics and worker rates of rural-nonfarm residents resemble more closely those of urban residents than those of rural-farm groups. They were combined with the latter group because of the absence of any separate mortality data for rural-nonfarm residents. £7 No adequate information is available on differential mortality of workers and nonworkers. It may be assumed that men outside the labor force, particularly before age 60, have higher mortality rates, since they include a relatively large proportion of persons suffering from illness or serious disability. Moreover, it is frequently asserted that retirement, and the resulting difficulties in adjustment, tend to shorten the life span. On the other hand, persons who continue to work at advanced ages are more exposed to the possibility of death, through specific occupational hazard or as a result of their more active mode of life. In the case of railroad workers, actuarial studies by the Railroad Re tirement Board indicate relatively small differences in mortality rates be tween employees and annuitants retiring at age 60 or over on the basis of age and service. (U. S. Railroad Retirement Board, Annual Report, 194.6, p p . 86-9). If this general pattern held true for the labor force as a whole, errors resulting from the assumption of identical death rates would be relatively small, since retirements remain quite low until the late fifties. For example, if it were assumed that mortality rates at ages prior to 60 of persons outside the labor force were twice as great as for the en tire population, and if the mortality rates for those in the labor force were correspondingly adjusted, the work-life expectancy of men at age 30 would be increased by only 0.3 years. The crude worker rates developed from the Census data could not be used directly in determining the underlying pattern of labor force participation. Certain distortions and irregularities were introduced into these crude rates by the distribution of the institutional population and by biases in age re porting, as well as by random errors of sampling. In order to eliminate, where possible, the effects of such factors, the following adjustments were made: 1. Redistribution of Institutional Population. Many mental and penal institutions ar e ’located in rural-nonfarm areas, although their inmates (all outside of the labor force, by Census definition) are drawn from both the urban and rural population. In April 1940, for example, 3»7 percent of all males 14 years or over in rural-nonfarm areas were inmates of institutions, compared with 1.0 percent of the urban residents. This depressed the crude worker rates in rural areas, in relation to urban areas. In the absence of specific data on the original residence of inmates of institutions, they were redistributed in proportion to the urban-rural distribution of the non ins titutional population, by age and color. The 1940 institutional population, prior to age 60, constituted a fair ly small and stable percentage of the total population among white males, and therefore had no significant effect on age-to-age differences in worker rates. However, for nonwhite men, the percentage in institutions rose from about 1*3 percent at age 14 to 3*4 percent at 27, and then declined among those in the forties and fifties. These variations distorted the underlying pattern of labor force entries and separations for the nonwhite male popu lation. For nonwhite males aged 18 to 65, the pattern of worker rates based on the noninstitutional population was therefore used, adjusted to the av erage level of the worker rate based on the total population for this per iod. 2. Age-Reporting Bias. In addition to a tendency of respondents to report ages rounded to the nearest 0 or 5, other biases affected particular age groups in the population. Thus, in past censuses, there have been in dications that older persons often tended to report themselves -as younger for economic and personal reasons. At the upper age extremes, there has also been sane tendency towards exaggeration of age. Analysis of the 1940 Census population data in relation to mortality data for 1930-40 revealed a new bias: a tendency for older persons below age 65 to report their age as 65 years or over. This tendency, particularly pronounced among nonwhites, appeared to have developed after 1936, the year old-age assistance pro grams under the Social Security Act became effective in most States. In the construction of United States Life Tables for 1939-41, the following redistribution of the male Megro population was made to allow for this bias: - 65 - Estimated Male Negro Population Ms. 55-59 60-64 65-69 Source: Original Adjusted 208/656 154,632 151,407 218,324 168,242 128,129 Difference 9,668 13,610 - 23,278 United States Life Tables and Actuarial Tables, 1939-41, (p. 112) Since the apparent motive of this group for misreporting their ages appeared to be the desire to qualify for old-age assistance or pensions, it was assumed that a comparatively large proportion of such persons were out side the labor force. This appeared to be supported by the pattern of work er rates for urban nonwhites, which showed an exceptionally sharp drop at age 65, as compared with whites in the corresponding groups. Worker rates for nonwhite rural residents, whose old-age dependency problems differ substan tially from those of the urban workers, did not appear to exhibit any such distortion. The nonwhite urban population was therefore redistributed on the basis of the above estimates, and worker rates were adjusted on the as sumption that the population added to the younger age groups had the lower worker rates of the age group which they had reported, i.e., ages 65-69. The adjustment thus reduced the crude worker rates for urban nonwhites be tween ages 55 and 64, and reduced somewhat the decline in worker rates in the vicinity of age 65. 3. Smoothing of Worker Rates. The resultant worker rates still exhib ited considerable year-to-year irregularities after the above adjustments. It was assumed that the true worker rates for the population were inherently smooth, except for certain ages, such as 60, 65, or 70, when known institu tional factors were operative. Curve fitting with polynomials and by osculatory interpolation (using Jenkins’ fifth difference formula) was attempted, but neither of these meth ods gave satisfactory results. A free-hand curve-fitting was therefore adopt ed. A graphic illustration of the process of adjustment and smoothing of worker rates is shown in chart 14 for nonwhite males in urban areas. Humber in Labor Force in Year of Age (Lwx ) (Column 8) For ages 32 and over, the number in the stationary labor force was com puted directly as the product of the stationary population (Lx ) and the work er rate (wx ). For ages 14-31, inclusive, hypothetical Lwx values were esti mated by assuming that the same percentage of the population was in the labor force as at age 32, and that the labor force at age 32 was smaller than that at age 14 by the number of deaths between these years: Lw 14-31 = L14-31 (W32} This assumption was necessary in order to eliminate the effects of ac cessions when estimating the work-life expectancy of workers between the ages 14-31* 66 CHART 14 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES NONWHITE MALES IN URBAN AREAS, 1940 Percent Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS - 67 - Number of Man-years in Labor Force Remaining (Twx ) (Column 9) The total number of man-years in the labor force remaining in the given year and all following years for persons in the labor force at the exact year of age is computed from the values in column 8 as follows: 2 ^ x x-n Lwx Number in Labor Force, at Beginning of Year of Age (lwy) (Column 10) The number of survivors of 100,000 persons born alive expected to be in the labor force at each exact year of age (or birthday) is shown in this col umn. On the assumption of an even distribution of labor force separations between successive age intervals, it was computed by direct interpolation from the Lwx values of column 8, as follows: lwx = 1/2 (Lw x _ ! + L w x ) Average Number of Years in Labor Force Remaining (SwY ) (Column 11) The average work-life expectancy of persons in the labor force at a given age is computed by dividing the total remaining (Twx ) man-years in the labor force by the number in the labor force at the beginning of the year of age ( lw x ) • Mortality Rate, Between Successive Years of Age (1,000 Qx ) (Column 12) This and the following columns of the detailed table of working life trace the development of the estimated rates of labor force entry and of sep aration between successive years of age. These mortality rates differ, con ceptually, from those of the standard life table in one important respect. The conventional mortality rate (1,000 qx ) expresses the number of deaths ex pected between two exact age intervals (or birthdays) as a ratio to the num ber alive at the beginning of the year of age (3^). In the tables of working life, the mortality rate between successive years of age (1,000 Qx ) is based on the stationary population (L*), and expresses the number of deaths expected within an interval of 1 year as a ratio to the stationary population within the initial year of age. This rate is derived directly from the successive differences in the stationary population (column U) as follows: n - ** ~ **+1 X " h : This modification has been introduced into the tables of working life in order to facilitate the application of the derived rates of labor force entry and separation to available population and labor force data, which are almost invariably in terms of the attained age. It should be noted that the above rate may readily be expressed in terras of the conventional mortality rate. If it is assumed that deaths of persons - 68 - of working age are distributed evenly within each year of age, then the sta tionary population in any year of age (Lx) would equal the number of surviv ors at the mid-year of age. The mortality rate between successive years of age per 1,000 in the stationary population (1,000 Qx) therefore equals the mortality rate per 1,000 living at the exact mid-year of age (1,000 qx+i/2^* Accessions to the Labor Force (Columns 13 and 14) The net number of persons entering the stationary labor force between successive years of age (ax) (column 13) is computed from the net increments in the stationary labor force, up to age 32, after allowing for the probabil ity of deaths among workers during the year: ®x “ Lwx+1 " Lwx + Lwx The rate of accessions (column 14), per 1,000 persons in the stationary population, becomes in turn: 1,000 ax 1,000 Ax L^ Since the number and rate of accessions are derived from the net changes in the worker rates, no accessions are shown beyond the age of the peak work er rate (i.e., age 32). Separations from the Labor Force (Columns 15 and 16) The net number of persons separated from the stationary labor force be tween successive years of age is shown in column 15. Fran age 32 on, this was derived from the decrease in the stationary labor force between succes sive years of age: sx * Lwx - Lwx+i The annual rate of labor force separation between successive years of age was therefore: 1,000 4 = 1,000 sx Lwx Between ages 14 and 32, it was assumed that labor force separations were due solely to death and therefore: Q® = (^ and sx = Lwx (C^) Since some workers become permanently disabled and are forced to with draw from the labor force before age 32, a slight understatement of the true separation rate for these ages has resulted. The error, however, is believed to be statistically insignificant. Separations from the Labor Force Due to Death or Retirement (Columns 17-21) These columns (17-21) show the expected number of workers to be separat ed from the stationary labor force between successive years of age, because of - 69 - death or retirement (dx , rx ), and the corresponding probabilities, (1,000 Qx , 1,000 (£). Also shown is the derived rate of retirement ( 1 , 0 0 0 ^ ) . In order to determine these functions, it was necessary to assume that the age-specific death rate for persons in the labor force was the same as that for the population as a whole. *►/ Given the separation rate and the death rate, it was possible to derive the probability of separation due to death or retirement for ages 32 and over, and the retirement rate. The probability of death or retirement differs significantly from the corresponding rate. For example, the probability of death is defined as the ratio of the number of separations from the labor force because of death dur ing a year, to the number of persons in the stationary labor force at the be ginning of the year, i.e., The death rate, however, is the number E). Lw_ of deaths within the labor force divided by the number of workers exposed to death. On the assumption that retirements are distributed evenly within each year of age, the average person retiring is exposed to death, as a worker, for only half a year. The total number of workers exposed to death during the year would then be the number at the beginning of the year less half of those retiring, i.e., Lwx - 1/2 rx . The death rate, for persons in the labor force, may therefore be expressed ass Qx _____is______ Lwx - 1 / 2 (rx ) Similarly, the probability of retirement is: retirement iss 37 See p. rO ^ 63 = — Lw x . . - l/2 (dj r r Qx = - 1; and the rate of Lw„ - 70 - Solving algebraically, the respective formulae for the probabilities of death and retirement were computed as follows: 6/ > and <4 = Q^ Qx - Qx The retirement rate was also derived from the probabilities of death and retirement, as follows: 7/ 2 Qr rSc = — "5t 2 - Sc Finally, the number of deaths and retirements from the labor force were computed as the product of the stationary labor force and the respective prob abilities. r d„ = Lw_ (Q )J r * Lw„ (Q ) x x X X 6/ Proof Given the following relationships: (1) ( 2) * = Jk? * J k ? and -Lw,, ' TLw, X QS = Qd + Q; X X Ox =---S -7-- a“d rQx =- £— -Lwx - 1/2 rx Lw~ - l / 2 d x Dividing in (2) by Lw„ yields: d x d t- (3) Q £ 2Q - = ----£*x----- 1 - 1 /2 U * ) = ___ 1 2 - C Lwx and,in like manner: 2 Qr U) «x=Jk. and substituting for Q^, in (3): 2 - Q_ (5 ) — a- 2 -<«*-«*> Then, solving for yields: (6) . q (2 - , 8) Q^. =* ------ - 7 / The retirement rate may also be derived directly from the differences between successive worker rates for ages 32 and over: rSc ~ wx ~ wx+l Differences between the two methods are due solely to rounding. - 71 - ABRIDGED TABLES OF WORKING LIFE, 1940 AND 1947 An abridged table of working life was developed for 1947 because data were not available on population and labor force by single years of age for years subsequent to 1940. This form differs from the single-year tables for 1940 primarily because the stationary population and labor force are grouped in 5-year intervals and the rates of accessions and separations are shown from one interval to the next, for the grouped 5-year cohort. In this re spect, the form of the abridged table of working life differs from that of the conventional abridged life tables, which describe the change in a single year cohort from the beginning of one interval to the beginning of the next. The form used in the present study was designed to facilitate application of the rates to grouped data available from enumerative surveys of the popula tion and labor force. In general, the major assumptions and methodology described in the pre ceding section also apply to the abridged tables. In the present section, only those specific sources and methods are described which differ from those employed in the single-year tables for 1940. Following is a brief descrip tion of the columns of the abridged table (page 36). Age Interval (x to x-m) (Column 1) The functions in the abridged table, as in the single-year table, are expressed in terms of the exact birthday (x) or of an interval of n years between birthdays. The intervals cover 5-year groups, with the exception of the last (75 years and over). Stationary Population (nLx) (Column 2) The stationary population is the number living within the age interval of 100,000 persons born alive annually (or of 500,000 born alive in a 5-year period). For 1940, these values were derived by a summation of the single year Lx values shown in table la for each 5-year interval. For 1947, these values were based on the United States abridged life tables for that year. 8/ Since the abridged tables were shown separately for whites and nonwhites, the values of q L_ for total males were computed by weighting the respective white and nonwnite values by the estimated num ber of births of white and nonwhite males in 1947. Stationary Labor Force (do!limns 3 and 4) The percent of the stationary population in the labor force, i.e., the "worker rates," (nw_) an<* 't*ie stationary labor force (|jLwx), are shown with in each age interval. 8/ National Office of Vital Statistics, Federal Security Agency, Vital Statistics of the United States, 1947, Part I. -1 2 - For 1940, tli© grouped 5-year worker rates for total males shown in the abridged table for 1940 are not directly comparable with the corresponding single-year worker rates in table la. As noted previously, worker rates for the 1940 tables of working life were derived from the original published Cen sus statistics, two major revisions in these data have since been made by the Census Bureau. In 1944-, revised labor force statistics were issued, al lowing for misreporting of labor force status in April 194-0 of certain groups, such as NIA student-workers, persons on emergency relief projects, and other smaller categories. 2/ In July 194-5, the Census Bureau revised the‘labor force enumeration procedures used in its Monthly Report on the Labor Force (MRLF), after having discovered that the methods previously followed in the 1940 Census and in the MRLF tended to understate the number of workers in cer tain marginal groups. Comparable estimates of the labor force were subsequent ly released for the Census week in 1940, and for intervening months. 10/ Neither of the two Census revisions contained labor force estimates by single year of age, color, or residence; therefore, it was necessary to rely on the original Census data in developing the single-year 1940 tables. How ever, in constructing the abridged tables, 5-year worker rates comparable with the current MRLF were developed, based on interpolations from the revised Cen sus Bureau estimates. The effect of these revisions was to increase the rates of labor force participation both at the youngest and oldest ages, with rela tively little change for males in the intervening span. For 1947, a special MRLF tabulation by age, sex, and veteran status, in April 1947, served as the basis for computing 5-year worker rates. In gen eral, these rates paralleled those of similar grouped rates for 1940, although at a significantly higher level. For young men aged 20-34, however, they dropped below the 1940 rates. This was entirely due to the presence in this age group of large numbers of veterans of World War II, attending schools and colleges under the G. I. Bill of Rights. In order to eliminate the influence of this temporary factor from the 1947 abridged table, worker rates were com puted for civilian nonveterans in the age groups 20-34• The latter tied in reasonably well with the 1947 worker rates for total males at adjoining ages, and were therefore used. Otherwise, relatively little adjustment was required in the grouped 5-year worker rates. 11/ Accessions to the Labor Force (nAx ) (Column 5) In this column, the proportion of persons is shown in a given age group who may be expected to enter the labor force before they become 5 years older. The computation is made in the same way as for the single-year accession rates, with a substitution of the grouped data for the corresponding single-year func tions. 2 / d . S. Bureau of the Census, Estimates of Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment in the United States: 1940 and 1930. 10/ U. S. Bureau of the Census, Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment in tiie United States, 1940 to 1946, (Series P-50, No. 2). 11/ April 1947 worker rates from the MRLF were subject to sampling error. - 73 - Separations from the Labor Force (nQx ) (Column 6) Similarly, the rate of separation from the labor force within a 5-year period is shown for persons in the stationary labor force (nLwx ) at the be ginning of the period. Probabilities of Separation Due to Death or Retirement (Columns 7 and 8) These columns show the probable number of labor force separations due to death or retirement within a 5-year period per 1,000 persons in the sta tionary labor force at the beginning of the period. Following the practice for the single-year probabilities, these func tions were computed, initially, from the total separation rate (nQx ) and the death rate (nQx )» on the assumption of a constant relationship between the death rate and the retirement rate between successive age intervals. This assumption was considered sufficiently accurate for use in comput ing single-year probabilities of death or retirement, but a significant bias was introduced when it was applied to the grouped data. This was due to the fact that, during the ages of peak retirements, i.e., ages 60-75, the rela tionship between the death rates and retirement rates changed significantly within 5-year age intervals. In order' to adjust for this bias, the.probabil ity of death (nQx ) for total males in 1940 in successive 5-year intervals was derived directly from the single-year functions for 5-year age groups, as follows: n+8 n+4 n+5 , 2 dx 2 dx + 2 °x x-n+1 «=n x=n+4 (1) nLwx These derived values were then compared with those estimated by appli cation of the basic formula to the 1940 data. (2) 0a . A (2 - <£) 2 - Q* The following tabulation shows a comparison of the two sets of values Probability of Death (1) Age group Derived from single year values 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 , .0220 .0297 .0421 .0609 .0858 .1157 .1479 .1918 .2625 (2) "Estimated" (3) Ratio of "derived" to "estimated" (col. 1 / col. 2) .0220 .0297 .0420 .0608 .0858 .1157 .1504 .2022 .2817 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.0 100.0 98.3 94.9 93.2 Differences between the "estimated" and "derived" values are insignif icant prior to age 60, but became substantial from this age onward. In order to adjust far this bias, the empirical ratios derived above (column 3) were applied as adjustment factors to the estimated values comparable to current MRLF for ages 60 and over, in 194-0 and 1947. Corresponding ad justments were then made in the estimated probability of retirement (n0£)« Average Number of Remaining fears of Life (ex ) (Column 9) In both the abridged table for 1940 and the single-year table of work ing life, the average number of remaining years are identical for total males. In estimating the values for 1947, it was necessary to compute the number of persons living at the beginning of each age interval (lx ). This was derived from the United States abridged life tables for 1947 by combining the lx values for white and nonwhite males, by a weighting procedure similar to that described previously. Average Number of Tears of Working Life Remaining (8wx ) (Column 10) The working-life expectancy shown in the abridged tables is derived by the same method as in the single-year tables of working life. In order to estimate the number of persons in the labor force at the beginning of each age interval (lwx ), it was necessary to derive beginning-of-interval values for the worker rate, by interpolation between the successive 5-year grouped worker rates. ☆ U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : O — 1950
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