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The Structure of the U.S. Economy in 1980 and 1985 Projections of gross national product, its income and demand composition, input-output relations, and output, productivity, and employment, U.S. Department of Labor Peter J. Brennan, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin, Commissioner 1975 Bulletin 1831 For salo by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D C. 20402, GPO Bookstores, or BLS Regional Offices listed on inside back cover. Price 85 cents Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents Preface This bulletin contains projections of employment by industry for 1980 and 1985, based on projections of the labor force, potential gross national product (GNP), the composition of income and demand GNP, interindustry relationships, and projections of industry output, average hours, output per man-hour, and employment. Each of the elements in these projections is discussed in considerable detail in the chapters which follow. The methods used in developing the projections are covered in appendix A. This study is similar in content to earlier research in which projections were developed for 1970, 1975, and 1980. Some of these earlier studies are listed at the end of the bulletin. The 1980 projections in this study replace or update the earlier projections for 1980. The bulletin is part of a comprehensive coordinated program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics to provide information on what the U. S. econo my might be like in coming years under certain assumptions. The primary use of the employment projections by industry is to provide a framework for the occupational outlook program of the Bureau. A detailed bulletin on occupational manpower and training requirements is currently in press The projections oi potential GNP serve as a benchmark against which to measure the performance of the economy. The detailed projections of demand, output, and employment have important uses in providing in sight into the effects of alternative government policies on the composi tion of demand, on employment by industry, and, through the use of an industry-occupational matrix, on employment by occupation. Further, for business firms, these projections are an important source of informa tion in developing long-range capital investment programs and in under standing the changing structure of markets. The projections presented in this bulletin were summarized in four arti cles in the December 1973 issue of the Monthly Labor Review and in The U. S. Economy in 1985, Bulletin 1809 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1974). Other articles and reports are planned to present additional findings and evaluations for some of the major topics included in the study. An impor tant addition to the projections is to be concerned with alternative energy assumptions. Because of recent rapid changes in the supply of and demand for energy and the changes these are expected to make in the economy as a whole over the coming years, the Bureau will be developing projections which include alternatives to the energy assumptions used in the studies already published. The research for this bulletin was carried out in the Bureau’s Division of Economic Growth under the general supervision of Jack Alterman, then Assistant Commissioner for Economic Trends and Labor Conditions. Ronald E. Kutscher, Chief of the Division of Economic Growth, was responsible for direct supervision of the projections and for preparation of the final report. The early research on the macro-projections was conducted by Eva E. Jacobs. The responsibility for this research was later assumed by Charles T. Bowman, who was assisted by Terry H. Morlan and John H. Tschetter. The final demand estimates were prepared under the supervision of Donald P. Eldridge by Arthur J. Andreassen, Richard P. Oliver, Norman C. Saun ders, Robert A. Sylvester, and Thomas F. Fleming. The updating and pro jections of the input-output tables were the responsibility of William I. Karr, who was assisted by Thomas J. Mooney. The projections of output per man-hour were prepared jointly by Leopold A. Sveikauskas, of the Division of Productivity Research and John H. Tschetter who, in addition, developed the projections of output and employment. Marybeth Tschetter was responsible for the discussion of alternative demand structures. Valerie A. Personick assisted in the preparation of the industry statements. IV C ontents Page Introduction............................................................................................................................. ; 1 General assumptions........................................................................................................ 1 Assumptions directly affecting rate of economic growth.............................................. 2 Other assumptions........................................................................................................... 2 Methods............................................................................................................................. 2 Qualifications.................................................................................................................... 3 Highlights and implications................................................................................................... Projected U. S. economic growth..................................................................................... Income GNP...................................................................................................................... Demand GNP.................................................................................................................... Output and employment............................... Implications....................................... 4 4 4 5 6 8 Chapter 1. Supply projections of gross national product................................................... Population................................. Labor force........................................................................................................................ Employment: persons and jobs....................................................................................... Hours................................................................................................................................. Labor productivity (output per man-hour).................................................................... Supply GNP....................................................................................................................... 12 12 13 17 20 22 23 Chapter 2. Income and demand GNP................................................................................. Income GNP............................................. Prices................................................................................................................................. Demand GNP................................................................................................................... 26 26 38 40 Chapter 3. The structure of demand................................................................................... Personal consumption expenditures............................................................................... Gross private domestic investment................................................................................ Net exports....................................................................................................................... State and local government............................................................................................. Federal Government........................................................................................................ 45 45 55 61 66 67 Chapter 4. Projection of input-output tables....................................................................... Conventions of input-output tables................................................................................. Projection of coefficients................................................................................................... Review of coefficient change by industry..... .................................................................. Alternative technological possibilities............................................................................ 70 70 71 73 77 Chapter 5. Projected changes in industrial composition of output, productivity, hours, and employment............................................................................. Output.............................................................................................. !........................... Productivity.................................................................................................................... Average hours............................................................................................................... Employment.................................................. 80 80 87 91 92 v C o n te n ts— Continued Page Chapter 6. Impact of alternative assumptions on projected growth of real GNP........................................................................................................... 98 Alternative GNP growth rates..................................................................................... 98 Alternative combinations of factors..............................................................................104 Chapter 7. Impact of alternative structures of demand GNP on employment.................................................................................................................. 107 Employment associated with various types of demand............................................. 107 Average versus incremental job requirements...........................................................110 Impact of shifts in the structure of demand...............................................................110 Chapter 8. Comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections...................................113 Factors determining real GNP......................................................................................... 113 Distribution of demand GNP............................................................................................ 115 Changes in gross product originating..............................................................................117 Changes in industry output and employment................................................................. 119 Tables: 1. Values of variables used in assumptions, 1955, 1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985................................................................................... 2. Major determinants of supply GNP, 1955, 1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985.................................................................................................... 3. Personal income, sources and disposition, 1955, 1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985................................................................................... 4. Changes in GNP and major demand components, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85................................................................................. 5. Changes in gross product originating, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85............................................................................................ 6. Total employment (counting jobs rather than workers) by major sector, 1955, 1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985............................... 7. U. S. population, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985........................................................................................................................... 8. Total labor force by age and sex, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985................................................................................... 9. Labor force, employment, hours, productivity, and potential GNP, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985................................... 10. Derivation of civilian employment control totals, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985............................................................. 11. Total nonagricultural employment and voluntary part-time nonagricultural employment, 1966-72................................................................... 12. Personal income, sources and disposition, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985........... 13. Disposable personal income per capita, 1955, 1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985................................................................................... 14. Gross saving and investment, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985................................................................................................... 15. Federal Government revenues and expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985............................................................. VI 1 5 5 6 7 8 13 15 18 20 21 28 30 31 32 C o n te n ts— Continued Tables — Continued 6 16. State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.................................................. 17. Price changes, GNP and major components, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85................................................................................ 18. GNP and major demand components, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.................................................................................. 19. Personal consumption expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.................................................................................. 20. Consumer purchases of automobiles and mobile homes, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.................................................. 21. Changes in consumer purchases of selected durable goods, selected periods, actual and projected, 1951-85.................................................................. 22. Food consumption per capita, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985................................................................................................... 23. Changes in consumer purchases of selected household services, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85................................................... 24. Consumer purchases of selected transportation services, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985................................... 25. Consumer purchases of selected "other services,” selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985............................................................ 26. Changes in personal consumption expenditures by producing sector: the 15 fastest growing industries between 1970 and 1980..................... 27. Consumer purchases of china, glassware, and tableware by producing industry, 1963, 1970, and projected for 1985..................................... 28. Gross private domestic investment, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.................................................................................. 29. Private construction, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985......................................................................................................... 30. Producers’ durable equipment by producing industry, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985................................................... 31. U. S. exports by major sector, 1963, 1970, and projected for 1980 and 1985................................................................................................................... 32. U. S. imports by major sector, 1963, 1970, and projected for 1980 and 1985.......................................................................................................... 33. U. S. balance of payments by major component, selected years 1963-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985............................................................. 34. Changes in State and local government purchases of goods and services, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85................................... 35. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.................................................. 36. Average coefficient change, selected industries, selected periods, actual and projected, 1963-85................................................................. 37. Industries with significant changes in output, 1963-70............................... 38. Industries with significant projected changes in output, 1970-80....................... 39. Industries with significant projected changes in output, 1980-85....................... vi i 36 38 41 46 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 58 59 62 64 65 66 67 72 73 73 74 C tents — Continued Page Tables — Continued 40. Gross product originating in total private economy by major sector, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985....................... 81 41. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in domestic output, 1968-80..................................................................................................................... 84 42. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in domestic output, 1980-85..................................................................................................................... 84 43. 44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. 62. 63. 64. Industries projected to grow most slowly in domestic output, 1968-80.................................................................... 85 Industries projected to grow most slowly in domestic output, 1980-85........................ 85 Industries with significant projected changes in domestic output growth rates from 1959-68 to1968-80.................................................................. 86 Industries with significant projected changes in domestic output growth rates from 1968-80 to1980-85................................................................... 88 Productivity change by sector, selected periods, actual and projected, 1948-85................................................................................... 89 Range of industry productivity (output per man-hour) projections, 1968-80..................................................................................................................... 90 Changes in average annual hours by major sector, selected periods, actual and projected, 1948-85................................................................................. 91 Total employment (counting jobs rather than workers) by major sector, selected years 1955-72 andprojected for 1980 and 1985......................... 93 Industries projected to grow most rapidly in employment, 1968-80.................... 96 Industries projected to grow most rapidly in employment, 1980-85.................... 96 Industries projected to show largest increases in number of jobs, 1968-80 and 1980-85............................................................................................... 97 Combined effects of population growth and participation rates on labor force projections............................................................................................. 100 Projections under alternative assumptions: isolated effects............................... 100 Projected GNP and growth rates under selected combinations of alternative assumptions...........• ......................................................................... 104 Jobs per $1 billion of final demand components, 1980........................................ 108 Jobs per $1 billion of final demand components, 1985........................................ 109 Manufacturing jobs per $10 billion of Federal defense purchases and State and local government purchases of health, welfare, and sanitation, 1980.................................................................................I l l Jobs per $10 billion of consumer durables and consumer services, by major sector and selected industries, 1980...........................................................112 Major determinants of supply GNP: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections......................................................................................... 114 GNP by major demand category: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections......................................................................................... 116 Gross product originating by major sector: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections................................................................. 116 Industries for which projections of domestic output growth rates differed by more than 2 percentage points........................................................... 119 viii Contents — Continued Page Tables — Continued 65. Employment by major sector: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections....... .............................................................................................. 121 66. Employment in selected industries: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projection....... ........................................................................... 121 67. Differences in projected growth rates for 1980 domestic output and employment, by industry................................................................................. 122 Charts: 1. Average annual rates of change in population and labor force, actual and projected, selected periods................................................................................. 14 2. Labor force by age, 1960, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985..................... 16 3. Average annual rates of change in labor force, employment, productivity, and gross national product, actual and projected, selected periods..................... 24 4. Federal Government expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.......... 34 5. State and local government revenues, selected years and projected for 1980 and 1985............................................................................................................ 37 6. Gross product originating, total private economy, by major sector, 1955, 1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985....................................................... 83 7. Employment by major sector, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985..................................................................................................................... 95 A-l. Diagram of economic growth projection system........................................... 125 Appendixes: A. B. C. Methods of developing the 1980 and 1985 projections......................................... 124 Industrial composition of final demand by category, input-output matrices, and related data....................................................................................... 152 Industry output and employment data.................................................................... 368 IX Energy A ssum ptions The projections contained in this bulletin were completed prior to the oil embargo and resulting petroleum shortage. A major element in their development was the set of energy supply-demand projections of the U. S. Department of Interior, which assumed that the increasing shortfall of domestic energy supply relative to demand through 1985 would be met largely by substantial increases in imports of crude oil and petroleum products. In light of the embargo and the need to minimize U. S. dependence on oil imports, various programs along the lines of "Project Independence” are now under active con sideration. Such programs to increase U. S. self-sufficiency in energy requirements obviously would have a substantial im pact on consumers, government, and business demand for a whole variety of goods and services. Such changes would, in turn, affect relative growth of industry output, employment, and occupational requirements. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has, therefore, started a major research effort to develop comprehensive sets of alternative projections which would explore the demand, output, and manpower implications of "Project Independence,” as well as other strategies for reduc ing energy demand, expanding domestic energy supply, and minimizing reliance on energy imports. The results will be made available when the study is completed, probably in mid-1975. x Introduction This bulletin provides detailed projec tions for 1980 and 1985 of gross national product (GNP) the income and demand com position of GNP, the industrial composition of demand, input-output coefficients, and output, man-hours, productivity, and em ployment by industry. The projections were developed for the 1968-80 and 1980-85 periods. The year 1968 was chosen as a base because it was characterized by full employment of resources and productivity advances at or near their longrun poten tial. The projection period 1968-80 is gen erally compared with 1955-68 — a period of comparable length when the economy was operating near capacity. At the same time, to focus more on the current period, in most cases the implied 1972-80 growth is also shown. These estimates are not forecasts but are projections of what the U. S. economy might be like in 1980 and 1985 under given assumptions, some explicit, but others, even more numerous, implicit. To enable the reader to evaluate these projections, the most important assumptions are spelled out in the following three sections. General assumptions 1. Fiscal and monetary policy and man power training and educational programs will be able to achieve a satisfactory balance between relatively low unemployment and relative price stability, permitting achieve ment of the long-term potential economic growth rate. Consequently, the projections assume a 4-percent unemployment rate (of the civilian labor force) and a 3-percent an nual rate of increase in the implicit GNP price deflator (table 1). It is assumed that this unemployment rate and this rate of price increase will be reached in 1975 and that these rates will remain the same through 1985. 2. The institutional framework of the American economy will not change radi cally. 3. Economic, social, technological, and scientific trends will continue, including val ues placed on work, education, income, and leisure. 4. Efforts to solve major domestic pro blems such as air and water pollution, solid waste disposal, congestion in large urban Table 1. Values of variables used in assumptions, 1955,1968, 19 72, and projected for 1980 and 1985 Projected Variable 1955 1968 1972 1980 4.4 Unem ploym ent rate (p e rc e n .t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Armed Forces (m illio n s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 Im p licit GNP deflator ( 1 9 6 3 = 1 0.0.). . . . . . . . 84.9 Population (m illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165.9 Average weekly hours (pa id p riv ate). . . . . . . .. 41.0 Productivity (p riv ate GNP per m an-hour, 1 9 63 dollars).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 3.30 Federal purchases (billio n s of dollars, 44.1 current p ric e s .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal transfer payments (b illio n s of 16.1 dollars, current p ric e s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal grants-in-aid (b illio n s of dollars, current p ric e s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 3.6 3.5 113.8 20 0.7 38.5 5.6 2.4 136.1 2 0 8.8 37.8 4.0 2.0 175.6 224.1 36.9 4.0 2.0 20 3 .8 23 5.7 36 .3 (2 ) 1.2 2.3 1.5 -.5 (2 ) -9 .1 4.6 4.86 5.34 6.85 7.85 98.8 104.4 16 6.6 56.1 98 .3 18.7 37.7 (2 ) -.5 (2 ) -4 .7 3.4 .9 - .4 3.0 1.0 - 3 3.0 2.4 2.9 2.8 21 8 .5 6.4 1.4 4.5 5.6 178.4 2 2 7 .6 10.1 15.1 10 1 5.0 90 .2 1 Compound interest rates between term in al years. 1985 Average annual rates of change ' Projected 1955-68 1980-85 1968-72 1968-80 137.5 14.8 19.2 14.0 8.8 2 Not calculated. 1 1.0 0.0 areas, and inadequate safety conditions O th er assum ptions in industry may preempt a larger share of the Nation’s productive resources but not Government. All levels of government will enough to have a more than marginal ef expand efforts to meet a wide variety of fect on the long-term economic growth rate. domestic requirements but State and local Such efforts, may, however, affect indus government activity will continue to grow trial growth in some geographic areas. relative to Federal Government activity. 5. The U. S. energy supply-demand bal It has been further assumed that Federal, ance will be roughly in line with that pro State, and local budgets will be close to being in balance by 1980 and 1985. This jected by the U.S. Department of the assumes: Interior in U.S. Energy Through the Year 2000, published in December 1972. This 1. No change in Federal tax legislation. Future ef means major reliance on oil imports, partic fects of the Tax Reform Act of 1969 have been taken into account. ularly refined petroleum, to close the energy 2. The tax rate for social security contributions is supply-demand gap. Any price changes re left at currently legislated levels (Social Security sulting from energy shortages or disruptions Amendments of 1972) but the wage base is allowed to grow with the deflator for personal consumption expend are not considered. See the note on energy itures, thus maintaining a constant real wage base. assumptions on page x. 3. Federal transfer payments will continue at the levels implied in the provisions of current Federal legis lation through 1975. After 1975, transfer payments are assumed to increase in accord with: (a ) the rate of increase of the population over age 62; (b ) the rate of price increase; and (c) an expansion of 3 percent a year to allow for increases in coverage and real bene fits. 4. Increased Federal revenue resulting from growth in the economy will be used to a large extent to con tinue to expand Federal grants to State and local governments, although grants are projected to increase at a diminishing rate. The substantial increase in Federal grants will make it possible for State and local governments to dampen the increase in their tax rates. 5. Defense expenditures, in constant dollars, are assumed to continue to decline as a proportion of the Federal budget and of total GNP. The size of the Armed Forces will be reduced to about 2 million and will remain at that level. 6. Federal nondefense purchases of goods and ser vices, in constant dollars, are assumed to increase at rates below that of real GNP, but will account for an increasing share of total Federal purchases of goods and services. Assumptions directly affecting rate of economic growth 1. Population. BureauJof the Census Se ries E projections are assumed. Series E assumes that fertility rates remain at the replacement level. 2. Labor force is based on the population and assumed participation rates. Future participation rates for each age-sex group (with differentiation made for women with and without children under 5) are derived by extrapolating the trend for the period 1955-72 and tapering this trend so that in 50 years all changes are reduced to approx imately zero. Residential construction. Estimates assume that the Nation will meet its housing goals by 1978. Thereafter, residential construc tion is projected to remain a constant pro portion of real GNP. In international trade, it is assumed that by 1980 and 1985 the United States will have achieved a slight surplus in its net export balance, in spite of increased im ports of oil. 3. Average annual hours (paid) are as sumed to decline by 0.5 percent a year in the agricultural sector; in the private nonagricultural sector they are assumed to decline by 0.3 percent a year. 4. Productivity in the private nonfarm eco nomy is assumed to grow at its long-term rate — 2.7 percent a year. The shortfall in productivity for the recent period, 1968-72, compared to the long-run trend, will be made up by 1980. The annual trend rate of 5.5 percent for the farm sector is assumed to continue throughout the proj ection period. Methods A brief summary of methods is included here. A more complete description is con 2 tained in appendix A for those interested in reviewing each step of the projection procedure in detail. The projections were developed using the following sequence: The projection system involves anumber of checkpoints to see that projections made at different stages in the sequence are mutually consistent. Important among these checks is the balancing of the employment projections with the total employment used in the initial stage. Occupational projections are developed at a later stage; these de each of these variables and examine the ramifications. However, the combinations and permutations would make the task insurmountable. For that reason, the pro jections discussed in this bulletin concen trate on a basic set of estimates and assumptions. However, the implications for the overall growth rates and the implica tions for industry output and employment of alternative demand assumptions are dis cussed in chapters 6 and 7, respectively. Even when alternative assumptions can be made and carried through, uncertainties exist. While the projections have been care fully worked out and reviewed and the mod els used, tested, and evaluated, many ques tions are left unanswered. Any model or technique is only a shortcut attempt to capture intricate relationships in the econo my. These shortcuts may obscure important structural changes. Also, it is usual, in making projections, to tend, when all else fails, to move toward the center of reason able alternatives, while the economy is never quite that cooperative. Further, in developing projections for periods as dis tant as 1980 and 1985, it is inevitable that events will take place which could material ly affect these projections. As one example, it is conceivable that defense expenditures could be drastically increased or reduced as a result of international developments or decisions regarding national priorities. This would affect not only Federal Govern ment expenditures, but also tfie level and structure of investments and consumer ex tailed projections are published in separate penditures, input-output relationships, and 1. Labor force projections were developed through separate projections of the population and labor force participation rates for various groups in the population 16 years and over, by age and sex. 2. Potential output (gross national product) was projected as the product of three major variables: (a ) employment, based on the projected labor force and an assumption of a 4-percent unemployment rate; (b) annual hours per job; and (c) output per man-hour. 3. Distribution of potential GNP into major cate gories of demand was projected through the use of a macroeconometric model which starts with potential GNP and develops estimates of government revenue, personal income, and business income. The income estimates were then used to develop projections of government purchases of goods and services, personal consumption, and investment expenditures. 4. Conversion of projected major components of demand into detailed industry employment estimates was done in three substages: (a) major final demand components were distributed into detailed "bills of goods” on an item-by-item basis; (b) the potential de mand for all final goods and services was converted into industry output requirements through the use of interindustry (input-output) relationships projected to 1980 and 1985; and (c) projected industry output was derived and subsequently converted into employment requirements based on projections of annual hours per job and output per man-hour. bulletins’ the relative rates of output and employ ment growth for selected industries. Conse quently, while BLS has taken considerable time and care in developing these projec tions, before they are used by others they should be evaluated carefully, particularly the assumptions underlying them. As a consequence, the projections should be considered as estimates amid uncertain ty. Nevertheless, they are believed to be useful in providing indicators of relative future growth of demand, output, and em ployment. Qualifications Preparing a set of projections as com prehensive as those described in this bulle tin requires making many assumptions, some of which have a great deal of uncer tainty attached to them. It would be possi ble to make alternative assumptions for 1 See forthcoming BLS Bulletin 1824, Occupational Man power and Training Needs, Revised 1974. 3 Highlights and Implications labor force. Thus, the 3.8 percent rate of growth in GNP during 1955-68 occurred in conjunction with labor force growth of 1.5 percent a year. By contrast, the labor force is projected to grow on the average by 1.8 percent a year during 1968-80. The differ ence is translated into an increase in the potential growth. On the other hand, during 1980-85, labor force growth is expected to slow to 1.1 percent a year, and a corre sponding diminution in economic growth is expected. Below is a brief summary of the more detailed contents covered in the succeeding chapters, followed by a discussion of the major implications of the projections. Projected U. S. economic growth Real gross national product (GNP) is projected to grow faster during 1968-80 (4.1 percent a year in 1963 dollars)2 than it did during 1955-68 (3.8 percent), pri marily as a result of the projected accel erated growth in the labor force in the 1970’s (table 2). On the other hand, the projected 1980-85 rate of growth is appre ciably slower— 3.3 percent a year. Income GNP The implied rate of growth during 197280, at 4.7 percent, is appreciably higher than the 1968-80 rate because the unem ployment rate in 1972 was higher than 4.0 percent and productivity growth fell short in 1969-72. These projections indicate that, if estimate! of potential GNP were made for each year rather than for the two points in time (1980 and 1985), the slowing of the rate of increase in potential GNP would be gin about 1978 and continue at least through 1985. Summarizing, the factors used in deter mining the GNP for 1980 and 1985 are growth in labor force, unemployment, em ployment change, change in average hours, and productivity, each of which is discussed in chapter 1. Variations in historical and projected economic growth rates, aside from periods of less than full utilization of re sources, come about largely because of variations in the rate of increase in the 2 The 1968-80 growth in real GNP (4 .0 9 percent a year) would be somewhat different if stated in 1972 dollars or 1958 dollars — 3.97 percent and 4 .1 0 percent, respectively. In the December 1973 Monthly Labor Re view article which summarized these projections, the esti mates were shown in 1972 dollars. 4 Total personal income is projected to in crease at 8.0 percent a year during 196880 (stated in current prices), or appreci ably faster than over the 1955-68 period. The increase reflects both the faster real growth in GNP and the faster rate of price increase projected. The projected growth in personal income slows down from 1980 to 1985 because of both the expected slower growth of real GNP and the somewhat lower rate of price increase. These are discussed in more detail in chapter 2. Personal con sumption expenditures—by far themostimportant use of personal income — follow very closely the growth in personal income, both historically and in the projected period. In spite of the closeness of the projected growth rates for the various income uses, an exami nation of relative shares of income (table 3) shows a clearly rising share of income going to taxes and interest, a stable share going to savings, and a declining share go ing to consumption. An examination of government revenues and expenditures (on a national income accounts basis) over the 1968-80 period shows the projected rate of increase in Federal expenditures to be a little lower than for revenues — 7.5 and 7.6 percent a Table 2. Major determinants of supply G N P , 1955,1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985 Projected Category 1955 1968 Average annual rates of change 1 1972 1980 Total labor force, including m ilitary (th o u s a n d s .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Employed (persons c o u n t) ............ Em ploym ent (jo b s count) (th o u s a n d s ).. Government 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Average annual man-hours (private hours p a id ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total private m an-hours ( m illio n ..... s) Private GNP per m an-hour (1 9 6 3 do llars). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... Total GNP (b illio n s of 1963 d o lla rs ) Government o u tp u t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private G N P. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1955-68 Projected 1968-80 19 80 -85 68 ,0 7 2 65 ,2 2 0 6 9 ,2 5 2 9,475 59 ,77 7 8 2 ,27 2 7 9 ,4 5 5 8 4 ,8 7 3 14 ,45 3 7 0 ,42 0 88,991 84 ,15 1 8 8 ,50 6 14,786 73,72 0 10 1,8 09 9 7 ,81 7 1 0 4,0 76 17 ,47 0 8 6 ,6 0 6 1 0 7 ,7 1 6 10 3,4 87 11 0,1 09 19,60 0 9 0 ,5 0 9 1.47 1.53 1.54 3.30 1.27 1.79 2.95 1.71 1.59 1.74 1.13 1.16 1.13 2.33 .89 2,1 3 0 12 7 ,3 4 4 2 ,000 1 4 0,8 70 1,965 1 4 4,8 24 1,920 166,291 1,888 170,8 92 -.4 8 .78 -.3 4 1.39 -.3 4 55 3.30 46 8.7 48.8 41 9 .9 4.8 6 75 9.2 74 .0 68 5.2 5.34 84 8 .9 76.1 77 2 .8 6.85 1,228 .2 89 .6 1,138 .6 7.85 1,441 .5 100.1 1,341 .5 3.02 3.78 3.25 3.84 2.90 4.09 1.61 4.32 2.7 6 3.25 2.2 4 3.33 1 Compound interest rates between term in al years. 2 Governm ent em ploym ent figures are fu ll-tim e and p a rt-tim e em ploym ent. year respectively (in current prices) — only moderately less than the 1955-68 rate. The implied 1972-80 rate is not appreciably different, although the increase in revenue is somewhat faster than in expenditures. Between 1980 and 1985, both Federal ex penditures and revenues are projected to slow to a growth rate of about 6 percent a year, in line with the slowing in the entire economy. By contrast, over the 1955-68 period, Federal expenditures increased somewhat faster than revenues, moving the Federal budget from a surplus to a defi cit position. The projections for State and local govern ment expenditures show a continuation of very significant rates of increase as the demand for government services continues. The 1968-80 projections show rates of in crease of more than 10 percent a year (in current prices) for both revenues and ex penditures. In 1980-85 the rate of increase of State and local revenues and expendi tures slows to 8 percent a year as the eco nomy slows. 3 Private em ploym ent and man-hours were compiled by the Productivity and Technology, Bureau of Labor S tatistics. projected at a rate of 4.3 percent a year (1963 dollars). The projected 1980 to 1985 rate of increase for consumer expenditures is 3.3 percent a year, a considerable slow ing in growth (table 4). Chapter 3 contains a detailed discussion of the projected com position of consumer expenditures and other categories of demand GNP. Table 3. Personal income, sources and disposition, 1955, 1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985 (Percent distribution) Projected Com ponent 1955 1968 1972 1980 1985 Personal income: sources ................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Com pensation of em ployees ....... 70.3 71.2 71.2 68 .9 69.7 > ... 5.2 Governm ent transfers to persons 8.1 10.5 10.3 9.6 O ther s o u rc e s 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 24.0 22.0 24 .8 24.6 Less: personal co ntributions for social insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 3.3 3.7 3.9 3.8 Personal income: d is p o s itio.n . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 . Personal tax and nontax paym ents... 11.4 14.2 15.1 15.5 16.7 Interest paid by co n su m ers ........... 2.1 2.1 1.5 2.5 2.6 ( 3 ) ( 3) .1 Personal transfers to fo reig n ers ..... .2 .1 Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 5.8 5.3 5.8 5.7 Personal consum ption expenditures. 81.8 77.8 77.4 76.2 75.0 1 Includes wages and salaries plus other labor income. 2 Includes proprietors’ income, rental income of persons, come, dividends, and business transfers to persons. 3 Less than .05 percent. Demand GNP interest in SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. The largest component of demand GNP is personal consumption expenditures; their projected expansion is in keeping with the longrun trend, that is, at rates slightly faster than for GNP. In 1968-80, the growth in personal consumption expenditures is 1985 While significantly smaller than con sumption, investment is an important part of GNP because it represents the Nation’s commitment today to future growth in the 5 Table 4. Changes in GNP and major demand components, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85 (Based on data in 1 9 63 dollars) Average annual rates of c h a n g e ! Com ponent Projected 1955-68 Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal consum ption expenditures .. Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t... Fixed in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n re s id e n tia.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R esidential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N et export of goods and services.. E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G overnm ent purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal gov ernm e nt ................ N ational defen se. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O th er. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and local governm ent ...... 1968-80 1980-85 3.8 4.0 2.6 2.7 4.2 -.6 - 7.1 6.2 7.4 4.1 4.3 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.2 14.0 7.0 6.7 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.5 2.6 4.9 5.1 4.4 3.4 2.6 7.6 5.6 2.7 -.4 - 1.7 3.3 5.1 3.2 2.1 1.7 2.9 3.8 ’ Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCE: H istorical data from U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics: projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. economy. The rate of growth during 196880 for the residential structures component of investment is 4.2 percent a year (table 4). Of course, between 1968 and 1972, a very significant expansion had already taken place, so that the implied 1972-80 rate of growth for residential structures is only 1.1 percent a year. Nonresidential in vestment is projected to expand at a some what faster rate than during 1955-68. This is in keeping with the overall expansion in the rate of growth in GNP during this period. From 1980 to 1985 the projected rate of growth in nonresidential investment is about the same as for total GNP so that the share of nonresidential investment re mains at about the level projected for 1980. Both imports and exports are projected to increase at rates faster than the GNP. Over the 1968-85 period, U. S. exports are projected to expand rapidly, with agricul tural exports and the nonmerchandise com ponents, particularly returns on investment, leading the expansion. These increases off set the very large increase projected in oil imports, accompanied by a general slowing in growth in other import categories. The projection for total Federal purchases of goods and services during 1968-80 shows very little growth.3 However, the projection results from divergent trends among the two components of Federal purchases — defense and nondefense. For example, the national defense component is projected to decline 1.7 percent a year (table 4). Of course, all of the decline and more had taken place by 1972 so that defense pur chases during 1972-80 are projected to increase 1.8 percent a year or about $7 billion (in real terms). Nondefense pur chases during 1968-80 are expected to ex pand at a rate of 3.3 percent a year, or a considerable slowing of the earlier pace (7.6 percent during 1955-68) when the space program was undertaken and reached its peak — a factor not expected to add much growth to nondefense Federal purchases in the future. State and local government purchases are projected to slow to 5.1 percent a year during 1968-80 and to slow further to 3.8 percent a year in 1980-85. State and local government purchases have been, over the past 15 years, one of the fastest growing components of demand. The anticipated slowing of the rate of increase in overall State and local purchases, however, masks some major changes of emphasis in the pattern of expenditures. Perhaps the great est of these is the diminished role of educa tional services relative to other purchases. Output and employment Among the shifts projected in output is a steady decline in the importance of agri culture and mining — a continuation of the 3 It is important to remember that in the demand system of GNP accounts, government demand covers only its purchases of goods and services. The earlier sec tion on government revenues and expenditures covered all categories of Federal expenditures. In the previous discussion of- Federal purchases the rate of increase was in current prices. In this section the discussion is in real 1963 dollars. Federal and State and local expenditures in current prices are discussed in more detail in chapter 2, while Federal, State, and local purchases of goods and services in constant 1963 dollars are described in chapter 3. 6 trend of the past.4 (The detailed discus sion of output and employment is in chapter 5.) The decline in the relative importance of construction is not projected to continue at the same pace as in the past, principally because of the expansion in residential housing and nonresidential structures pro jected for the 1970’s. Manufacturing is not expected to change its relative share in the projected period. However, because of the increase in the overall growth rate in 1968-80, the growth of manufacturing is projected to be somewhat faster than in the past, in spite of a decline in the relative importance of military production (table 5). The wholesale and retail trade share of total gross product originating, on the other hand, is expected to show a moderate de cline— at least from the 1972 level, particu larly during 1980-85, as the economy slows down and the amount of goods moved through trade channels moderates even more. With business and professional ser vices and medical services all showing strong growth, the "other services” sector is projected to expand somewhat in the fu ture. The finance, insurance, and real estate sector has increased appreciably in the past and is expected to increase sharply during 1972-85. Between 1972 and 1980, employment (on a jobs concept) is expected to increase by 16 million while from 1980 to 1985 the projections show an expected increase of 6 million, reaching over 107 million jobs in 1985 or 22 million more jobs than in 1972 (table 6). However, dramatic differences in growth are evident between the 1972-80 period, when jobs will increase by 2 million a year, and the 1980-85 period, when they will increase by 1.2 million a year. The latter figure is equal to the employment growth during 1955-72. Growth in government employment is projected to moderate at the Federal, State, and local levels. Yet the projection indicates an increase of over 5 million jobs in govern ment (primarily State and local) by 1985. Table 5. (Based on data in 1963 dollars ) Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1 Sector Projected 1955-68 Total p riv a te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N ona g ricu ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tran sportation, co m m unication, and public utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance and real estate Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Government e n te rp ris e .s........... 1 9 68 -80 1980-85 3.8 .8 4.0 2.0 1.1 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.3 .7 4.4 1.1 2.4 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.3 1.0 3.4 .3 1.7 3.1 3.2 3.0 4.9 3.3 7.2 5.9 4.0 5.3 3.3 4.6 4.3 4.4 5.9 4.6 7.9 5.6 4.4 4.7 4.2 4.5 5.1 4.4 4.2 3.1 5.1 4.8 2.5 2.7 2.4 4.0 3.8 3.8 1 Compound interest rates between term in al years. SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1 9 63 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. The moderation in the growth of govern ment employment while total employment is increasing translates into an appreciable stepup in the rate of growth in private sec tor employment—from 1.2 percent a year during 1955-68 to about 1.7 percent a year in 1968-80, returning in 1980-85 to a rate lower than in 1955-68. The projections of employment in the private sector, particularly at the major sector level of detail, reflect a continuation of the shifts in employment which have taken place for most of the postwar period. However, some sectors which until recently had declining employment are expected to show increases in the future. Even though the growth in manufactur ing employment is less than 1.0 percent a year to 1985, because of the size of the sec tor nearly 3 million more jobs are projected from the previous peak level reached in 1969 and over 4 million more from the 1972 level. Retail trade is projected to add more than 3 million jobs between 1972 and 1985. However, the big expansion in ‘ Gross product originating is used as a measure of output and is an alternative way of viewing GNP. It represents the value added (in real terms, at least as used here) of goods and services produced or originating in each of the industries or sectors of the economy. Changes in gross product originating, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85 7 Table 6. Total employment (counting jobs rather than workers), by major sector, 1955,1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985 Thousands of jobs Sector 1955 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Governm ent 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N onagriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ons truc tion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tran sportation, com m unication, and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real estate Other services 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Averageannual ratesof change 1 Projected 1968 1972 6 5 ,7 4 5 6,914 58,831 6,4 3 4 52 ,39 7 832 3,582 17 ,30 9 9,782 7,527 8 0 ,9 2 6 11 ,84 5 69 ,08 1 3,816 6 5 ,2 6 5 640 4,0 3 8 2 0 ,1 3 8 11,828 8 ,3 1 0 4,353 2,918 832 603 13,201 3,063 10,13 8 2,6 5 2 10,46 8 4,519 2,8 6 8 986 665 16,655 3,894 12,761 3 ,720 15 ,55 5 Projected 1980 1985 8 5 ,59 7 13,29 0 72,30 7 3,450 6 8 ,85 7 645 4,3 5 2 19,281 11,091 8,1 9 0 1 0 1,5 76 16,610 8 4 ,9 6 6 2,3 0 0 8 2 ,6 6 6 655 4,908 2 2 ,9 2 3 13,629 9,2 9 4 107,609 18,80 0 88 ,80 9 1,900 8 6 ,90 9 632 5 ,184 2 3 ,4 9 9 14,154 9 ,3 4 5 4,7 2 6 2,842 1,150 734 18,432 4,235 14,19 7 4,3 0 3 17,118 5,321 3,250 1,300 771 2 1 ,6 9 5 4 ,946 16,749 5,349 2 1 ,8 1 5 5,368 3,266 1,312 790 « 22,381 5,123 17,25 8 5,932 2 3 ,91 3 1955-68 1968-80 1980-85 1.6 4.2 1.2 - 3.9 1.7 - 2.0 .9 1.2 1.5 .8 1.9 2.9 1.7 - 4.1 2.0 .2 1.6 1.1 1.2 .9 1.2 2.5 .9 - 3.7 1.0 .7 1.1 .5 .8 .1 .3 .1 1.3 .8 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.6 3.1 1.4 1.0 2.3 1.2 2.2 2.0 2.3 3.1 2.9 - .2 .1 .2 .5 6 .7 .6 2.1 1.9 NOTE. Em ploym ent on a job concept includes wage and salary workers, ' Compound interest rates between term inal years. 2 Governm ent em ploym ent used here is the BLS concept, to be c o n self-em ployed, and unpaid fam ily workers. A job count is d iffe ren t from a sistent with other em ploym ent data. It differs from the governm ent em ploy person count of em ploym ent because, in a job count, persons holding more m ent shown in table 2 by the inclusion of government enterprise em ploy than one job are counted m ore than once. m ent as well as by other differences in coverage. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3 Includes paid household em ployment. of the GNP growth rate during the period 1980-85. Over most of the 1960’s and 1970’s, the potential growth in the economy has been or is expected to be 4 percent or more a year. However, beginning in the late 1970’s and continuing through 1985 and beyond, the potential growth rate in the economy will be no more than 3-1/3 percent a year.5 This slowdown will affect the expected rate of growth in business sales, capital expansion, and other items closely related to rates of growth in the economy. Thus, businesses will be called up on to expand the facilities necessary to meet the increasing rate of economic growth anticipated during the mid-1970’ s, yet not to overexpand facilities for the late 1970’s and early 1980’s when growth rates are slowing down. employment is projected to continue to be in other services, resulting from both a slight shift in output toward this sector and the relatively slower growth in its produc tivity. Implications This section discusses some of the impli cations of the projections summarized in the preceding sections for economic growth, incomes, the distribution of demand, and employment. Potential GNP growth. The projections for 1968-80 assume that all of the shortfall in productivity from 1968 to 1972, and the less-than-full utilization of the labor force in 1972, will be made up by 1980. There fore, one concern raised by these projec tions is the ability of the economy, first, to reach and then maintain the full-employ ment growth rate, particularly over the 1972-80 period. The projections imply a dramatic slowing 5 The labor force projections for 1980-85, which show growth of 1.1 percent a year, indicate that, if all else remains the same, the potential growth rate of the eco nomy will drop to nearly 3.0 percent a year during 198590 as the labor force growth slows further to 0.9 percent a year. 8 While the projected slowdown in theGNP growth rate may produce some problems, it could also bring some benefits. Among the benefits would be lessened pollution. Even without advances in treatment, pollu tion would not increase as rapidly as when the economy is growing faster. Also, use of scarce resources such as fuels, minerals, or timber will slow as the economy slows and thus lessen the rate of depletion of these critical resources. This slowdown in resource use can be particularly significant for an economy pressed for energy resources. The gradual slowing in the growth of State and local government purchases may ease the strains on local taxpaying capacity caused by the demands placed on this level of government. It is still true, however, that the projections call for expansion at rates higher than GNP growth, which would indicate continued pressure for increases in revenues. This is particularly so if one examines the problems facing society which are an important responsibility of State and local governments — local mass transit, municipal waste water and sanitary treat ment systems, and low-income housing, to list a number of the more important. The growth in both exports and imports at rates exceeding the rate of growth in GNP will continue to make the United States more dependent on changes in foreign countries. While the U. S. foreign trade sec tor is still small compared to many ether countries, recent experience has made the United States mindful of the ramifications of changes in trading position among the industrial countries. Also, if one adds the possibility or even the necessity of provid ing increasingly for energy needs from abroad, the United States will be even more concerned with trading relationships around the world. These projections tend to confirm the belief that, if the United States meets a large part of its expanding energy needs from imports, there will be constant pressure on the overall balance of pay ments. At the same time, while these pro jections assume a favorable balance of pay ments, it is assumed to arise from large returns on income from U. S. investments abroad; a continuing deficit in the balance of trade is projected. This deficit in trade implies a continuing adjustment problem as industries or localities are affected by the shifting in production of certain products from United States to foreign locations. These projections show an increased share of real demand devoted to nonresidential investment. Although not an expli cit part of the projections, it is reasonably safe to say that some portion of the in crease will be needed for pollution abate ment purposes. Further, it is conceivable that a large amount of investment for pro ducing energy will be required. These Income growth. A particularly important facet of these projections is the growth in real per capita income. The proj ected growth from 1968 to 1980 is at an appreciably faster rate than during 1955-72. This gener al indicator of the level of living gives an unusually favorable outlook for the rest of the 1970’ s; the early 1980’ s will see a re turn to a rate of increase more like the late 1950’s and 1960’s. This speedup in the remainder of the 1970’ s occurs because in this period the labor force or working popu lation increases appreciably faster than the population not in the work force. Thus, on a per capita basis, growth in income accel erates. It is generally believed that when real income is increasing rapidly, people may be more willing to assume burdens of financing programs in the public interest— pollution control, mass transit, or low-income housing—than if income growth is small. Distribution of demand. While theprojected changes in demand follow to a considerable extent those of the past, certain implica tions arise from the changing structure of demand. First, the proj ections do not assume any large resurgence of defense or spacerelated spending, but instead show only a gradual growth, particularly for defense. This growth will fall appreciably below the GNP growth rate. For those industries or communities which are or have been strong ly dependent on defense purchases, no great expansion can be foreseen, even though selected areas may, by virtue of their work on a current or new defense system, undergo some expansion. 9 government employment presents another type of challenge. For instance, labormanagement collective bargaining proce dures in this sector of the economy are in an early stage of development. The prob lems of maintaining essential public servicies during strikes or "sick-outs” present difficult challenges to local governments and, as this sector grows in size, the poten tial for problems of this nature will expand until bargaining procedures have been established for the public sector.6 An addi tional element in the growth in public sector employment is its impact on economic growth in the economy as a whole. A larger proportion of employment in the public sec tor, with the assumption of no change in government productivity, implies a slowing of the rate of economic growth, at least as conventionally measured. There is a twofold impact as an increas ing proportion of the work force moves into the services sector. First, since employment in services is generally more stable than employment in other sectors (particularly more so than in durable goods manufactur ing), the economy will be less prone to abrupt swings in employment with changes in economic activity.7 At the same time, an economy with a higher proportion of its work force in services may have a higher built-in rate of inflation because many service indus increased investment needs raise impor tant questions concerning financing require ments. It will be crucial that public policy be directed toward fostering the personal, business, or public savings necessary to finance this projected expansion in invest ment. The projections of demand in the public sector (Federal, State, and local) show a slightly diminishing share, implying growth at less than the rate of expansion in real GNP. At the same time it is assumed that Federal income tax rates will not change from their present levels and that social security tax rates will incorporate only those changes already existing inlaw. State and local tax rates are not explicit in the projections but tax collections by these governments are projected to grow at about the same pace as at present, even with increased rates of income growth (particu larly during 1968-80) so that a dampening of the rate of increase in these tax rates seems implied. Still, the projections show slight deficits for Federal, State, and local governments in 1980 and 1985. Therefore, any major expansion of public programs (national health insurance, or a very largescale publicly financed crash effort to pro duce more energy) would have to be financed from expanded Federal grants-inaid, higher taxes, or significant cuts in the rate of expansion of existing programs such as defense or education. tries have, by their nature, very low rates of productivity growth. Since wages advance in this sector at least as fast as in other industries, if not faster, the lower produc tivity potential of services will put increas ing pressure on labor costs and prices.8 This was a major consideration in assuming a higher rate of price increase for future years than has prevailed in the economy over the past 1 5 -2 0 years. The relative growth of Employment. The employment implications of these projections follow or reinforce many earlier projections developed by the BLS and other research groups developing em ployment projections. Employment Shifts. The decline projected for agricultural employment implies a con tinuing movement of people from rural to urban areas. In some instances, this will put further pressure on overutilized public facilities in urban areas and at the same time make maintenance of essential public services such as education and health care in sparsely settled rural areas increasingly difficult because of the lack of a viable tax base. The continuing growth of State and local 6For a discussion of some facets of this problem, see "Exploring Alternatives to the Strike," Monthly Labor Review, September 1973, pp. 43-51. 7For further discussion of this, see Geoffrey H. Moore, "S o m e Secular Changes in Business Cycles and their Implications for Research Policy,” paper presented at meeting of American Economic Association, December 28, 1973. 8This could be offset to some extent by the lower level of wages in services; the shift in employment to these sectors will, all else being equal, lower average wages in the economy. 10 fewer workers entering the labor force. Per haps one could even envision a more orderly adjustment than in past periods as the economy moves toward absorbing only 1.2 million new job entrants in the 1980’s com pared with 2 million in the 1970’s. However, the slowdown will cause some structural changes in employment which could present some adjustment problems. Primary among these is the very slow growth projected in retail trade. This sector has been a job source for many, particularly women who are seeking only part-time employment. As this sector slows somewhat more than the economy as a whole, job entrants may have to seek full-time work in other sectors, or not enter the labor force if they are only interested in part-time work. Also, one can anticipate that the conversion from a 4.1 percent a year rate of real economic growth in the 1968-80 period to a 3.3 percent rate in 1980-85 will not be entirely smooth. If business continues to expand at earlier rates after the labor force slowdown, labor shortages could follow — particularly among skilled categories. This brief discussion of the employment implications of the projections is enough to show that problems will exist, even though higher standards of living are projected in the future as per capita income grows and the number of job openings expands. These problems will require an active participa tion of manpower officials in Federal, State, and local governments and in the private sector. the service industries will have other im portant implications, particularly for man power policy, encompassing as they do not only the high-skill areas such as medical and dental services, consulting and research firms, and computer leasing, but also the lesser skilled employees in hospital main tenance, food service, and personal services. Although the demand for household help is expected to continue to increase appre ciably as women further expand their parti cipation in the labor force, the number of people willing to do this work is declining, particularly as better paying or more desira ble work opportunities are opened in other sectors.9 This probably means both an appreciable rise in wages for domestic help and a further sharing of household duties between working wives and husbands. Employment slowdown. The slowdown in employment growth during 1980-85 should not make it more difficult for new entrants in the labor force to find jobs, since the slowdown in economic growth results from 9The projection system used in developing these estimates has a consumption model, one element of which is an equation for domestic services. It is interest ing to note that this model projects an expansion in de mand for domestic services of over 125 percent from 1968 to 1985 while the employment projection shows a decline of over 35 percent in household employment over the same period— pointing up the expected divergence of supply and demand in this employment group. Of course, in the final set of projections the outlays by consumers were set equal to the expected supply of workers for household employment; the supply element was thought to be the controlling factor in this situation. 11 Chapter 1. Supply Projections of Gross National Product importance in estimating labor force and ultimately supply GNP; it is the composi tion of the population already living. This composition depends on past fertility rates and the resulting patterns of population growth. By far the most important phenomenon which will influence population composition during the 1972 to 1985 period is the rapid growth in fertility which began right after World War II and ended in the late 1950’s. This postwar "baby boom” will be translated into a bulge in the 25- to 34-year-old age group during the 1972 to 1980 period. The population bulge will decline after 1980. Evidence of this can be seen in table 7. The postwar swell or boom in population has a decisive impact on labor force growth through the early period (1968-80) of these projections. However, the decline in the birth rate beginning in the late 1950’s and continuing to the present begins to have a decisive impact on labor force growth in the late 1970’ s (chart 1). Although past popu lation growth determines the primary effect of population on potential GNP, projected population growth has a role also, through the effects of fertility rates which influence the participation of women in the labor force.1 This effect will be discussed in the 0 section on the labor force. As mentioned above, fertility rates are the key variable in projecting population growth, since the number of women of child bearing age, net immigration, and mortality rates have relatively little variability within a 15-year horizon. The Bureau of the Census makes alternative projections of population based on different assumptions about fertili- Supply projections of gross national pro duct (GNP) refer to the potential output of the economy given its available resources, in particular its human resources or man power. This chapter discusses the factors influencing the projections of supply GNP. Population projections are the beginning point for estimating potential GNP. The population projections used in this study are those developed by the Bureau of the Census. Labor force projections were then developed, utilizing estimated labor force participation rates (percent of population in the labor force) for various age and sex groups. After deducting the Armed Forces (set by assumption), a level of civilian em ployment was determined by assuming an unemployment rate for the civilian sector of the economy and subtracting the result ing unemployment level from the total civil ian labor force, Employment was then con verted to the basic productive unit for labor—man-hours. This conversion required projections of average annual hours per employee. The final step in projecting poten tial GNP was to project productivity or output per man-hour, which, when multi plied by total man-hours, yielded an esti mate of supply GNP. A discussion of each of the steps in the derivation of potential GNP is presented in this chapter. Population Population growth depends primarily on twc factors: the number of women of child bearing age and their fertility rates. In estimating population 15 years in the fu ture, fertility rates are the more variable factor, since the women who will reach childbearing age are already living. Similar ly, all the persons who will compose the labor force during the projection period are presently living. Thus, it is not primarily the growth of the population which is of 10 Although total population growth is less important than the characteristics of the existing population for projecting total supply GNP, it is important in other aspects of the projections. For example, per capita GNP is affected by total population. The proportion of the population under will have an effect on projected per capita GNP. This is discussed in ch. 2. 12 Table 7. U. S. population, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Projected Population group 1955 1968 1965 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 Millions of persons Population (including Armed Forces overseas) ...... 165.9 194.3 2 0 0.7 2 0 4.9 20 7 .0 2 0 8.8 224.1 23 5.7 N o ninstitutional population 16 years and o ld..... er 112.7 129.2 13 5.6 140.2 142.6 145.8 165.0 173.3 Average annual rates of change 1 Projected 1955-68 1965-72 19 72 -80 1968-85 19 68 -80 1980-85 Population (including Armed Forces overseas) ...... 1.48 1.04 0.88 0.95 0.92 1.01 Noninstitutional population 16 years and o ld..... er 1.43 1.74 1.57 1.45 1.65 98 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 19 72 . The projections are from series E SOURCES: ( 1 ) Population, including Armed Forces overseas: Bureau ( 2 ) N oninstitutional population 16 years and older: of the Census, Current Population Reports, series P-25, No. 493, Decem ber Statistics. ty.n Table 7 shows the 1980 and 1985 levels of the series E projections, which were chosen as the basis of the BLS labor force projections. Series E assumes a fertility rate which averages 2.1 children per woman at the completion of her childbearing years.1 In general, the fertility level in 2 the series E projection is consistent with birth expectations of the 18- to 24-year-old wives surveyed in 1972, adjusted for pre vious experience with projected birth ex pectations.1 The 2.1 fertility rate com 3 pares with a 3.7 rate in 1960 during the "baby boom.” A fertility rate of 2.1 is referred to as the "replacement rate” of fertility. Although it is often said to imply zero population growth, this applies only in the very long run (i.e. well into the 21st century) and does not consider the impact of immigra tion. As can be seen in table 7, population continues to grow under this assumption through 1985. This is due to the unusually large number of women entering childbear ing age at the beginning of the projections, of Labor i.e., the impact of the "baby boom.” If it were not for the fact that a sharp reduction in the birth rate has taken place — the"baby bust” — there would be a sharp increase in the number of births because of the increase in the number of women of childbearing age. Labor force Total change. Labor force projections are derived from projections of the noninstitu tional population age 16 and over by apply ing projected participation rates for various age and sex groups. While changing partici pation rates have some effect on labor force projections, the most important factor is the changing composition of the population. This is because the variations in participation rates are much larger between age and sex categories than over time within individual categories. As an example, in 1968 the participation rate for males 16 to 19 years old was 60.6 percent, while for males 35 to 44 years old it was 97.2 percent. How ever, the changes in participation rates with in these two groups from 1960 to 1968 were only from 62.4 to 60.6 percent and from 97.7 to 97.2 percent respectively. As shown in table 8, the labor force is expected to increase by 18.7 million per- 11 Current Population Reports, series P-25, No. 493 (Bureau of the Census, December 1972). 12 Denis F. Johnston, "T h e U. S. Labor Force: Pro jections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1973, pp. 3-13. 13Current Population Reports, series P -2 0 , No. 240 (Bureau of the Census, September 1972), p.4. Bureau 13 Average Annual Rates of Change in Population and Labor Force, Actual and Projected, Selected Periods u b CD 00 O CD LD 00 00 14 00 CD 6 00 L O Note: Rates are compound interest between terminal years. o CN Table 8. Total labor force by age and sex, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Millions of persons Average annual ra te s Projected Category 1985 1955-68 1965-72 19 72 -80 1968-85 19 68 -80 1980-85 1955 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 68.1 77.2 82 .3 85 .9 8 6 .9 89 .0 101.8 107.7 Male labor fo r c e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 7.5 . . 16-24 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 . 25-34 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5 35-54 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.7 . 55-64 ye a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 . 65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 . 50.9 9.8 10.7 21.6 6.8 2.1 53.0 11.0 11.4 21.5 7.0 2.2 54.3 11.8 12.0 21 .3 7.1 2.2 54 .8 12.1 12.3 21 .2 7.1 2.1 55.7 12.6 12.8 21.1 7.1 2.0 62 .6 13.5 17.5 21 .8 7.7 2.1 Female labor fo r c e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16-24 ye a rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25-34 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 35-54 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55-64 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 5.9 4.3 11.4 3.6 1.0 29.2 7.2 5.1 12.0 3.9 1.0 31 .6 8.1 5.7 12.5 4.2 1.1 32.1 33 .3 8.4 8.9 5.9 6.5 12.5 12.6 4.2 4.2 1.1 1.1 39 .2 10.3 9.3 13.4 5.1 1.2 Total labor force (including m ilitary) 20 .6 4.2 4.3 9.0 2.4 .8 SOURCE: 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 1.47 2.06 1.69 1.60 1.79 1.13 66 .0 12.5 19.4 24 .4 7.7 2.1 .85 2.81 - 06 .67 1.07 -1 .2 2 1.28 3.7 0 2.66 -.3 5 .77 -.7 5 1.58 90 3.99 .37 1.00 .22 1.30 .74 3.19 74 .55 -.2 0 1.39 1.75 3.67 .11 .79 -.3 8 1.07 -1 .6 2 2.06 2.28 -.0 4 .23 41 .7 9.7 10.3 15.1 5.2 1.3 2 .7 4 4.26 1.40 2.27 3.91 1.92 3.48 6.09 6.01 1.36 2.36 1.52 2.09 1.78 4.48 .80 2.38 1.68 2.11 1.79 4.24 1.36 1.66 1.65 2.48 3.00 5.09 .93 2.11 1.81 1.23 -1 .0 7 2.24 2.41 .61 1.26 Bureau of Labor S tatistics. increase, while the 16 to 24 age bracket actually decreases by 1.6 million persons between 1980 and 1985, marking thebeginning of the effects of the sharp decline in fertility rates which began in the late 1950’s and continued through the early 1970’s (chart 2). A second major factor affecting the labor force and its composition has been the dra matic increase in female participation rates, especially those in the 16 to 34 age brack et. From 1965 to 1972 the female labor force grew at an annual rate of 3.48 per cent, nearly triple the corresponding rate for males (1.28 percent). The rapid increase in labor force participation by women, partic ularly those of childbearing age, is associ ated, among other factors, with the recent sharp decline in fertility rates. In the projec tions, fertility rates are assumed to stabi lize at their recent low levels. Thus, although the female labor force is projected to grow more rapidly than the male labor force, the difference between their projected rates of growth is much less than it was from 1965 to 1972 or from 1955 to 1968. Consequently, while the portion of the labor force which women constitute increased from 30percent in 1955 to over 37 percent in 1972, it is only expected to expand to 38.7 percent by 1985. sons between 1972 and 1985, reaching a level of 107.7 million in 1985. The rapid increase in the labor force due to the post war "baby boom” began in the late 1960’s and will taper off beginning about 1978. This effect is reflected in the growth pattern of the labor force, which is projected to grow 1.79 percent annually from 1968 to 1980 (1.69 percent in 1972-80) but slows to 1.13 percent between 1980 and 1985. Changing composition. Not only is the rate of increase of the labor force going to change in the future but its age-sex compo sition will change as well. While not directly relevant to the supply GNP, this changing composition does have important implica tions. The effects of past population growth are particularly evident in the age distribu tion of the labor force. For example, the share of the labor force 25 to 34 years of age increases from 19.4 percent in 1965 to 27.6 percent in 1985. The movement of the postwar cohort is also evident in the growth rates of various age groups. Its entry into the labor force is reflected in very high growth rates for the 16- to 24year-old group from 1965 to 1972. Between 1968 and 1980, the group 24 to 35 is the faster growing age group. After 1980, the growth of the 35 to 54 age group begins to 1980 of change i Projected 15 Chart 2. Labor Force by Age, 19 6 0 ,19 7 2 , and Projected for 1980 and 1985 M illions 110 16 to 19 years 100 90 80 20 to 34 years 70 60 50 40 35 to 54 years 30 20 10 55 years and over 0 1960 1972 1980 16 1985 Employment: persons and jobs Conversion from persons to jobs. Theoreti cally, the relationship between labor force and employment is a simple one. Employ ment can be derived by subtracting unem ployed persons in the labor force from the total labor force. However, there are two measures of employment available. One is prepared for the BLS by the Bureau of the Census from its Current Population Survey. It is usually referred to as the "household series” because it is obtained through a survey of households. This census employ ment measure is essentially a count of per sons who are employed. The second employ ment series is prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is based on a count of jobs rather than persons. It is often termed the "establishment series” because it is derived from a survey of business establish ments. Since the labor force estimates are derived from the household survey, employ ment figures which are derived by applying an employment rate to labor force projec tions correspond to the first type of employ ment measure. However, for the purpose of estimating GNP output and employment within an input-output system, the estab lishment measure of employment is used because it is available in greater industry detail. The procedure followed in the projection of "jobs” employment is to first estimate "persons” employment from the labor force projections and then convert to jobs by means of an "adjustment factor.” The ad justment factor compensates for a number of differences between the two employment concepts. To illustrate, a brief summary of the adjustments for 1968 follows. 1 4 One of the most important differences is that the job concept counts multiple job holders separately, i.e., for each job they hold, while the household survey does not distinguish between single and multiplejobholders. The estimated effect of multiple jobholding for 1968 was to add 2.2 million jobs to the number measured by the house- hold series. Further, the labor force is based on persons 16 years of age and over, while the job count in the establishment series includes those under 16 years of age. In 1968, these younger workers numbered 484,000. A third source of discrepancy be tween the two employment measures relates to persons who are on unpaid absences from work. The household series counts these persons as employed but the establishment series does not. The size of this discrepancy was estimated as 1.6 million persons in 1968. Finally, since the household survey is controlled by Census of Population numbers, its results are affected by the census undercount. It is estimated that the 1960 census undercount resulted in a 2.4-million persons employment undercount in 1968. The four factors discussed above account for most of the difference between jobs and persons employment estimates. The remain ing differences are smaller and more diffi cult to quantify. They include, for example, differences in coverage, timing, sampling, and estimating techniques. Table 9 shows both employment series and the adjustment factors for selected historical years and as projected for 1980 and 1985. Both employment projections have growth rates and patterns very simi lar to those of the labor force. The pro jections of employed persons are based on assumed unemployment rates which decline from current levels to 4 percent by 1975 and remain there through 1985. In the absence of a consistent and predictable relationship between total labor force and the adjustment factor, the 1980 and 1985 adjustment factors were assumed to have the same ratio to total labor force as the average of 1967-70. Jobs are projected to grow at 1.71 percent annually from 1968 to 1980 and to slow to 1.13 percent after 1980. The fact that employment on a jobs basis grows more slowly than the total labor force from 1968 to 1980 is due to the high level of employment in 1968 and the fact that unemployment was less than 4 percent in 1968. 14The estimates and much of the discussion are based on an article by Gloria P. Green, "Comparing Employment Estimates from Household and Payroll Se ries,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1969, p. 12. Projected employment. The projections in table 9 show a change in the relative growth rates of government and private 17 Table 9. Labor force, employment, hours, productivity, and potential GNP, selected years 195 572 and projected for 1980 and 1985 --------------1 Projected Category 1955 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 Total labor force (including m ilitary) (m illio n s ) ........... 68.1 Unem ployed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 Employed (p e rs o n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 .2 A djustm ent factor (to jo b s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 Em ploym ent (jo b s ) (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 .3 G overn m ent2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 M ilita r y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 C ivilian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 . State and local. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 P riv a te 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 9.8 A g ricu ltu ral. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 N onagricu ltu ra.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 .3 Average annual m a n -h o u rs -p rivate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,130 .. A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,4 8 0 . N ona griculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,0 8 8 . Total private man-hours (b illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 7.3 . A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.0 . N ona g ricu ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.4 Private GNP per man-hour (1 9 6 3 d o lla rs.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 3.30 A gricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.24 N onagriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.59 . Total GNP (billio n s of 1963 d o lla rs .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 8.7 .. Governm ent o u tp u .t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 .8 Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.7 M ilita r y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.9 C ivilian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.8 State and loc al. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.1 . Private G N P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 1 9.9 A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.8 N ona griculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400.1 . 77.2 3.4 73.8 3.9 77 .7 12.0 4.6 2.7 1.8 7.4 65.7 4.3 6 1 .4 2,052 2,3 7 6 2,0 2 9 134.8 10.3 124.5 4.45 2.17 4.64 6 6 1 .8 61 .7 25 .4 11.7 13.7 36.3 600.1 22 .4 577.7 82 .3 2.8 79 .5 5.4 84 .9 14.5 5.6 3.5 2.1 8.8 70 .4 3.8 6 6 .6 2,0 0 0 2,3 1 4 1,982 140.9 8.8 13 2.0 4.86 2.5 0 5.02 75 9.2 74 .0 30.7 15.0 15.6 4 3 .3 6 8 5 .2 22.1 66 3.1 85 .9 4.1 81 .8 5.1 86 .9 14.7 5.1 3.1 2.0 9.6 72.1 3.4 68 .7 1,968 2 ,2 8 4 1,952 14 2.0 7.8 134.2 4.94 3.00 5.05 776.1 75 .4 28 .4 13.2 15.2 47 .0 70 0.7 23 .4 6 7 7 .2 86 .9 5.0 81 .9 4.7 86 .6 14.7 4.7 2.7 2.0 10.0 71 .9 3.4 S8.5 1,962 2 ,2 9 3 1,946 89.0 4.8 84.2 4.4 8 8 .5 14.8 4.4 2.4 2.0 10.4 73.7 3.5 70 .3 1,965 2,267 1,950 14 4.8 7.8 137.0 5.34 2.97 5.47 8 4 8.9 76.1 25 .4 10.3 15.1 50 .8 7 7 2.8 23 .2 74 9.5 10 1.8 4.0 97 .8 6.3 104.1 17.5 4.1 2.0 2.1 13.4 86 .6 2.3 84 .3 1,9 2 0 2 ,180 1,913 16 6.3 5.0 161.3 6.85 4.77 6.91 1,2 2 8 .2 89 .6 24 .0 8.6 15.4 65 .6 1 ,1 3 8 .6 23 .9 1 ,114 .7 107.7 4.2 10 3.5 6.6 110.1 19.6 4.1 2.0 2.1 15.5 90 .5 1.9 88 .6 1,888 2,1 2 7 1,8 8 3 170.9 4.0 166.9 7.85 6.21 7.89 1,4 4 1 .5 100.1 24 .2 8.6 15.7 75.8 1,3 4 1 .5 25.1 1,3 1 6 .4 141.1 7.7 133.4 5.14 3.20 5.25 8 0 0 .4 75 .4 26.7 11.7 14.9 4 8 .8 7 2 5 .0 2 4 .6 7 0 0 .4 See footnotes at end of table. sector employment. Between 1955 and 1968, the average annual growth rate of public employment was 3.3 percent a year while private employment grew at an aver age annual rate of 1.3 percent. This dif ference in growth was due almost entirely to State and local employment, which grew at a rate of 4.9 percent. The growth rates projected from 1968 to 1985 for pub lic and private employment are much closer together. The projections for public employ ment assume a continuation of the decline in Federal total employment (including Armed Forces) which began in 1969. Much of the decline is due to the post-Vietnam military cutback which is most evident in the growth rates projected from a 1968 base. The decline in military forces contin ues after 1972, reflecting conversion to a smaller, volunteer army. After 1980 mili tary employment is assumed to remain at 2 million persons, far below the 1968 Armed Forces level of 3.5 million. Federal civilian employment is projected to be 2.1 million persons in 1985, nearly the same as its 1968 level. Because of declining military employment and stable civilian Federal em ployment, the Federal Government share of total employment is projected to decrease from 6.6 percent in 1968 to 3.7 percent in 1985.1 5 State and local government employment is projected to grow more slowly than in the past, although still at a rate well above private employment. Growing at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent from 1968 to 15A t this stage government enterprise employment is excluded from government employment (Federal, State, and local) and included in private nonagricultural em ployment. In ch. 5 government employment, consistent with BLS definitions, includes government enterprise employment. 18 Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1 Category Projected 19 55 -68 1.47 .09 1.53 2.30 1.54 3.30 1.30 1.17 1.54 4.93 1.27 - 3.94 1.72 -.4 8 -.5 3 -.4 0 .78 -4 .4 5 1.32 3.02 5.54 2.61 3.78 3.25 1.38 1.17 1.53 4.95 3.84 .85 3.96 - 1 9 65 -72 1 9 72 -80 1 9 68 -85 2 .0 6 5 .3 3 1.89 1.57 1.87 3.0 3 - .46 - 1.82 1.37 4.8 8 1.66 -3 .2 2 1.96 -.6 2 - .67 -.5 7 1.03 -3 .8 7 1.38 2.6 4 4.5 9 2 .3 8 3.62 3.0 4 .00 - 1.80 1.40 4.9 2 3.68 .50 3.79 1.69 - 2.3 4 1.98 4.6 4 2 .0 5 2.12 - 1.06 -2 .2 2 .32 3.38 2.03 -5 .6 7 2.31 -.2 9 -.5 0 -.3 2 1.74 -5 .4 2 2.06 3.18 6.1 0 2.9 9 4.7 3 2 .0 5 .71 2.27 .22 3.2 4 4.96 .49 5.09 1.60 2.4 2 1.57 1.19 1.54 1.81 -1 .8 3 -3 .2 7 .0 2 3.36 1.49 -4 .0 2 1.69 - .34 - .49 - .30 1.14 -4 .4 9 1.39 2.8 6 5.50 2.70 3.8 4 1.79 -1 .4 1 -3 .2 2 .04 3.35 4 .0 3 .75 4.12 1968-80 1.79 2.95 1.75 1.21 1.71 1.59 - 2.64 -4 .5 9 - .09 3.52 1.74 - 4.1 3 1.98 - .34 - .50 - .29 1.39 -4 .6 1 1.68 2.90 5.53 2.70 4.09 1.61 -2 .0 3 - 4.5 3 -.1 1 3.52 4.32 .65 4.42 1980-85 1.13 1.16 1.13 1.13 1.13 2.33 .15 .00 .29 2.95 .89 — 3.75 1.00 - .34 - .49 - .32 .55 -4 .2 2 .68 2.76 5.42 2.69 3.25 2.24 .16 .00 .39 2.93 3.33 .98 3.38 Total labor force (including m ilitary) (m illio n s ) Unem ployed. Employed (p e rs o n s ). Adjustm ent factor (to jobs). Em ploym ent (jobs) (m illio n s ). Governm ent 2 Federal. Military Civilian. State and local. Private 3 . Agricultural. N onagricultural. Average annual m an-hours-private. Agriculture.. Nonagriculture. Total private man-hours (b illio n s ). Agriculture. Nonagriculture. Private CNP per m an-hour (1 9 6 3 d o lla rs ). Agriculture.. Nonagriculture. Total GNP (billio n s of 1963 dollars) . Government output. Federal. M ilita r y . Civilian. S tate and local. Private G N P. Agriculture. Nonagriculture. ' Compound interest rates between term in al years. this bulletin which are consistent with the BLS em ploym ent data base. 2 Government em ploym ent figures are fu ll-tim e and p a rt-tim e em ploy 3 Private em ploym ent and to tal hours paid were compiled by the O ffice m ent from U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. of Productivity, Bureau of Labor Statistics. They are d iffe re n t from th e government em ploym ent data used elsewhere in Derivation of civilian employment control totals. The previous discussion described the translation of employment on a persons concept to employment on a jobs concept. There is a further adjustment or conversion in the employment series which is not used in deriving the supply GNP but is important in subsequent chapters in discussing em ployment by industry. This conversion is the derivation of civilian employment con trol totals using a BLS measure of govern ment employment. The government employ ment described earlier is based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U. S. Department of Commerce and is used to be consistent with the GNP data needed for the derivation of supply GNP. However, since the data on private sector 1980, State and local employment reaches 13.4 million by 1980, then slows its growth rate to 3.0 percent a year, reaching 15.5 million in 1985. Private employment, which still accounts for the bulk of total employment, is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.7 percent from 1968 to 1980. The increase over its 1955-68 rate of 1.3 percent is due to the rapid increase in the labor force beginning in the late 1960’s. As the postwar genera tion becomes absorbed into the labor force, the growth in employment slows markedly. The 1980-85 rate of increase for private employment is projected at less than 1 per cent a year. This slowdown has a major impact on the projections of GNP, as will be discussed later in this chapter. 19 employment by industry are a BLS series, it is desirable for the sake of consistency to use a BLS measure of government em ployment. This derivation of civilian employ ment control totals is shown in table 10 data for selected historical years and pro jected for 1980 and 1985. This level of civil ian employment and its composition is the one discussed in detail in chapter 5. Hours Private employment projections are con verted to estimates of man-hours, which are the basic unit of labor input to production, by multiplying employment by a projected level of average annual hours per employee. The measure of man-hours used is "hours paid.” Although the number of man-hours Table 10. Derivation of civilian employment control totals, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Thousands Projected Component 1955 1965 1. Total em ploym ent (jo b c o n c e p. t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 ,2 5 2 . 2. Less: general governm ent (n a tio n al incom e basis) 9,475 .. 3. Total p /iv ate em ploym ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59,77 7 4. A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 ,434 5. N ona g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3 ,3 4 3 . 6. S elf-em p lo ye.d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,827 . 524 7. Unpaid fam ily w orkers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8. H ouseholds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 ,2 8 5 946 9. G overnm ent en te rp ris e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10. Wage and salary em ploym ent (p r iv a ...... te ) 43,76 1 Adjustm en t to BLS governm ent basis: 6,9 1 4 . 11. BLS to ta l civilian g o v ern m e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12. BLS to ta l nonagriculture wage and salary . . . . . . . . . . ... 50 ,6 7 5 13. Total civilian em ploym ent, BLS governm ent basis.... 6 5 ,7 4 5 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 7 7 ,6 8 9 11 ,99 4 6 5 ,6 9 5 4 ,338 6 1 ,35 7 6,1 7 7 617 2 ,604 1,217 5 0 ,7 4 2 8 4 ,8 7 3 14,45 3 7 0 ,42 0 3,816 6 6 ,6 0 4 6,211 547 2,4 3 7 1,343 5 6 ,0 7 0 8 6 ,8 7 7 14 ,71 9 7 2 ,1 5 8 3,421 6 8 ,7 3 7 6,411 569 2 ,2 7 9 1,420 58,05 8 8 6 ,5 9 2 14,69 3 7 1 ,89 9 3 ,3 5 3 6 8 ,5 4 6 6 ,502 589 2 ,2 4 0 1,426 5 7 ,7 8 9 8 8 ,50 6 14 ,78 6 7 3 ,7 2 0 3,4 5 0 7 0 ,2 7 0 6 ,6 0 8 583 2,191 1,416 5 9 ,4 7 4 1 0 4 ,0 7 6 1 7 ,47 0 8 6 ,6 0 6 2 ,300 8 4 ,3 0 6 6 ,7 1 5 560 1,825 1,640 7 3 ,56 6 1 1 0 ,1 0 9 1 9 ,60 0 9 0 ,5 0 9 1,900 8 8 ,6 0 9 6 ,7 1 5 525 1,660 1,700 7 8 ,0 0 9 10,07 4 6 0 ,8 1 5 7 4 ,5 5 2 11,845 6 7 ,9 1 5 8 0 ,9 2 6 1 2 ,53 5 7 0 ,7 3 8 8 3 ,2 7 3 1 2 ,8 5 6 7 0 ,4 7 1 8 3 ,32 7 1 3 ,29 0 7 2 ,7 6 4 8 5 ,5 9 7 1 6 ,61 0 9 0 ,17 0 1 0 1 ,5 7 6 1 8 ,80 0 9 6 ,8 0 9 1 0 7,6 09 1985 Average annual rates of change i Projected 1955-68 . . Total em ploym ent (jo b c o n c e p. t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less: general governm ent (n a tio n al incom e basis)... ... Total private em ploym ent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 A g ricu ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5. N o na griculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. S elf-em ployed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. 7. Unpaid fam ily w orkers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8. H ouseholds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9. Governm ent e n te rp ris e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10. Wage and salary em ploym ent (p riv a...... te ) Adjustm en t to BLS governm ent basis: 11. BLS to ta l civilian g o v ern m e. n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12. BLS to ta l nonagriculture wage and salary ............. 13. Total civilian em ploym ent, BLS governm ent basis... 1. 2. 3. 1 1965-72 19 72 -80 0.9 1.3 .7 -3 .0 1.1 .5 1.3 1.0 2.2 1.1 1.9 3.0 1.7 - 3.2 2.0 1.0 -.8 - 2.4 1.4 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.0 -4 .9 2.3 .2 - .5 -2 .3 1.9 2.7 1.5 1.8 1.5 - 4.0 1.7 .5 - .2 -2 .2 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.7 - 4.1 2.0 .7 .2 _ 2.4 1.9 2.3 2.9 1.4 1.1 4.0 2.6 1.8 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.1 1.7 2.9 2.4 1.9 7. Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCES: Line 1. Sum of lines 2 and 3. 2. U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data are consistent with data on govern m ent em ploym ent in table 2. General governm ent excludes governm ent enterprises. 3, 4, and 5. BLS O ffice of Productivity and Technolgy. Line 5 is th e sum of lines 6-10. 6. U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 20 8, 10. 11. 12. 13. 1968-85 1968-80 1980-85 1.1 2.3 .9 - 3.7 1.0 0 - 1.3 - 1.9 .7 1.2 2.5 1.4 1.2 BLS data from household survey. 9. U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Eco nom ic Analysis. BLS data from establishm ent survey. BLS data from establishm ent survey. Governm ent includes governm ent enterprises. BLS data from establishm ent survey. Sum of lines 4 , 6 , 7 , 8 , and 12. This is the control to ta l used in chapter 5 for detailed em ploym ent projections. worked would be more appropriate for meas uring productivity, these data are not avail able in sufficient industry detail. The "hours paid” measure of labor input does not re flect changes in paid vacation or sick leave; thus an increase in paid leave would, by itself, tend to lower the apparent productiv ity of labor as measured by output per paid man-hour. ways. Within the nonagricultural sector there has been a relatively rapid growth in the services, trade, and construction in dustries which have relatively large shares of part-time employment as compared to manufacturing, for example. The second aspect of the changing industry mix is the decline in the number of agricultural em ployees. The downward trend in farm work ers has contributed to the overall decrease in average hours because average hours of agricultural employees are considerably higher than for nonagricultural employees. In 1968, for example, annual hours per employee in agriculture averaged 2,314, while for the nonagricultural sector they averaged 1,982. Historical trend in hours. Average annual hours worked have been declining. As shown in table 9 , in the private economy average hours decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent between 1955 and 1968. Average agricultural hours, although higher than in the nonagricultural sector, have been declin ing faster. Very little of the recent decrease in average hours in the nonagricultural sec tors has been the result of shorter standard workweeks. Rather, it has reflected changes in the number of part-time employees and the changing industry mix. The 1966 to 1971 period was one of very rapid decreases in average hours, primarily as a result of the relative increase in part-time employ ment. For example, voluntary part-time employment as a percent of total employ ment rose from 11.4 percent in 1966 to 13.5 percent in 1972 (table 11). Two of the most important factors in this growth were increases in the number of women entering the labor force on a part-time basis and in the number of college and high school stu dents working part time while enrolled in school. The changing industry mix has contribu ted to the decline in average hours in two Table 1 1 . Projected trend in hours. Average annual hours in the private sector are projected to continue declining at 0.34 percent a year. This rate of decrease is less than has been experienced since the mid-1960’s, but is comparable to the 1947-66 rate of decline of 0.32 percent for the nonagricultural sector. As agricultural employment carries a small er and smaller weight in the total, the trend in total average hours approaches more closely that of the nonagricultural sector. Projected average annual hours in the private nonagricultural sector assume a return to the long-term trend following a period of relatively rapid declines in hours. This deceleration of the downward move ment primarily reflects the change in parttime employment among women and college students — whose numbers are projected to Total nonagricultural employment and voluntary part-time nonagricultural employment, 1966-72 Category 1966 1 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Average annual rate so fc h an g e 1 9 66 -72 2 Total nonagricultural em ploym ent at w o rk (th o u s a n d s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 5 ,4 5 3 6 6 ,82 6 6 8 ,0 4 5 70,018 70 ,68 4 71,14 6 7 3 ,66 2 1.99 Voluntary p a rt-tim e nonagricultural em ploym ent a t work (th o u s a n d s ). . . . . . . . . . 7,441 8 ,048 8,452 9,027 9,387 9 ,503 9,9 3 7 4.9 4 Voluntary pa rt-tim e as a percent of .. total em ploym ent a t w ork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.4 13.5 - 1 Data prior to 1966 are not com parable because they included 1 4 - and 15-year-olds. 2 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 21 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor S tatistics. increase more slowly in the future. The rapid increase in part-time employment, which was a major factor in creating the 0.6-percent annual rate of decrease in nonagricultural average hours from 1965 to 1972, is not expected to continue in the projections. Between 1968 and 1985 nonagricultural hours are projected to decrease at 0.3 percent a year. Two of the major reasons for the pro jected slowdown in the decline of average hours relate to demographic phenomena (discussed in detail earlier). The first of these demographic factors is that the large influx into the high school and college age population which was a result of the large postwar generation is largely over. During the projections period, these persons will move up into the age group where they will be more likely to seek full-time employment, thus decreasing the supply of student parttime labor. The second demographic factor relates to the fertility rate projections. To the extent that recent declines in the fertil ity rate have been associated with increases in female labor force participation, the assumption of a stabilizing of fertility rates near their present levels implies a slowdown in the growth in the number of women will ing to be part-time workers. Thus, these two factors are the principal reasons for the projected slowing in the rate of decline in private nonagricultural hours. Total private man-hours, which result from the projections of employment and average annual hours, are expected to grow at a rate of 1.1 percent annually from 1968 to 1985. Total man-hours in agriculture are projected to decline at nearly the same rate as in the 1955 to 1968 period. By 1985, agricultural man-hours are only 2.4 percent of total private man-hours. Of course, the sharp decli e in the growth in total and nonagricultural man-hours after 1980 is a result of the labor force slowdown and the resulting employment slowdown rather than of any change expected in the rate of de cline in average hours. is the productivity of labor, measured as private GNP per man-hour paid. Because of the definition of government output in the national income accounts, government productivity is handled separately. The pro ductivity of public employees is assumed to be constant over time; therefore their output in any year is defined as the num ber of employees times the level of compen sation per employee which prevailed in the base year, 1963 in this study.1 6 Within the private sector, two types of change may bring about movements in productivity. One type of change occurs within individual industries and is the result of changes in technology or in the quality of the labor force. The other type of change is the result of shifts in the importance of industries or sectors of the economy which have different levels of pro ductivity. It has been estimated that nearly 90 percent of the change in productivity which occurred between 1947 and 1966 was due to the first factor (change within an industry) while about 10 percent of the productivity change was due to the second factor (shifts between industries).1 The 7 most important of the shifts was from the low-productivity farm sector (although the rate of farm productivity was rising rapidly) to the relatively high-productivity nonagri cultural sector. Because of the great disparity in productivity levels and rates of growth in these two sectors, they have been projected separately. The projected average annual growth rate for total private output per man-hour in 1963 dollars is 2.9 percent from 1968 to 1980 and 2.8 from 1980 to 1985. During the 1968-85 period, nonagricultural output per man-hour was assumed to grow at 2.7 percent annually, which is consistent with its longrun historical trend. 16 The effect of this definition of government output is to make constant-dollar GNP estimates more sensitive to shifts between public and private employment. An in crease in the share of employment in the public sector, given some level of total employment growth, would have the effect of decreasing the growth rate of potential GNP. Labor productivity (output per man-hour) 17 Jerome A. Mark, "W a g e Price Guidepost Statis tics: Problems of Measurement,” American Statistical Association 1968: Proceedings of the Business and Eco nomic Statistics Section, pp. 123-29. The link between the man-hour projec tions and potential private GNP estimates 22 An important pattern in the cyclical behavior of productivity change which is hidden by averaging the growth from 1968 to 1980 is reflected in the 1965-72 and 1972-80 growth rates also shown in table 9. The period from 1965 through 1970 was one of very low productivity gains, with an average annual growth of only 1.7 percent in the nonagricultural sector. After 1970, productivity in this sector began to recover and grew at an annual rate of over 4 per cent in 1970-72. This recovery of productiv ity is assumed to continue through the late 1970’ s, after which the growth of nonagri cultural output per man-hour returns to its historical rate of 2.7 percent. Thus, although the 1972 to 1980 rate of pro ductivity gain in the nonagricultural sector, at 3.0 percent a year (table 9) is above the long-term trend, it can be viewed as a recovery period — the recovery returns pro ductivity to its long-term trend rate of 2.7 percent by 1980. The rapid growth in agricultural produc tivity of 5.5 percent from 1955 to 1968 is in line with long-term historical trends. This relatively rapid growth has been due to the great amount of technological change which has occurred in the agricultural sector. Farm productivity is projected to continue its growth, displaying a pattern similar to that in the nonagricultural sector. However, its effect on the growth rate of overall private output per man-hour declines as its share of toted output and employment continues to decline. Thus, total private productivity growth (just as the trend in average hours) moves closer to the nonagricultural pro ductivity rate of growth as the farm share falls. represents an increase of $592.6 billion from the 1972 level of $848.9 billion. The projected growth in GNP is more rapid from 1968 to 1980 (4.1 percent a year) than after 1980 (3.3 percent a year). This compares with a growth in GNP of 3.8 per cent a year from 1955 to 1968 (chart 3). Slower growth after 1980 is primarily a result of the projected labor force slowdown. This slowdown will dominate the discussions of income and demand GNP and output and employment by industry which follow in subsequent chapters.1 9 Private GNP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.3 percent from 1968 to 1980. After 1980, its growth rate decreases to 3.3 percent. Its pattern of growth is thus similar to that of toted GNP. Most of the gains in the private sector take place in the nonagricultural sector. (In agri culture, increasing productivity barely off sets losses in manpower.) The public sector as a whole shows a much lower growth rate than the private sector as well as a considerable decrease over its own historical rates. In fact, the 1.6-percent growth rate projected for 1968 to 1980 is about half of the 1955-68 rate. The slowdown in the growth of the govern ment sector GNP from 1968 to 1980 results from actual decreases in the Federal sector and a slowdown in the rate of growth of the State and local sector. In the Federal sector, decreases in military personnel are pro jected; Federal civilian employment for 1968-80 is projected to be stable. However, from 1968 to 1972 a decline occurred in the Federal civilian sector, so that for 1972-80 it is projected to show a modest increase. State and local GNP growth slowed from the 1955-68 rate of 5.0 percent to an aver age annual rate of 3.4 percent from 1968 to 1985. The relative decrease in public sector Supply GNP Projected GNP growth. The projections of labor force, unemployment, employment, average hours, and productivity, when com bined, result in a projected 1985 GNP of $1,441.5 billion (in 1963 dollars).1 This 8 l9The 1968-80 growth in real GNP (4 .0 9 percent a year) is somewhat different if stated in 1972 dollars or 1958 dollars — 3.98 and 4 .1 0 percent respectively. This difference in growth rates arises primarily because the government share of GNP varies considerably depend ing on the price level in which it is stated. This follows since by assumption government has no change in pro ductivity and thus all wage changes in government (but not in the private sector) are considered as price in creases; the later the constant-dollar price base; the larger the government share. 18The sequence of projections can be summarized as: Projected labor force less unemployed equals employment (person concept); converted to jobs and multiplied by average hours equals total man-hours; multiplied by output per man-hour equals supply GNP. 23 Chart 3. Average Annual Rates of Change in Labor Force, Employment, Productivity, and Gross National Product, Actual and Projected, Selected Periods Percent - 1.0 Total labor force (including m ilita ry) Unemployed (persons) Employed (persons) Private em ploym ent (jobs) Average annual man-hours (private) Total private man-hours Private GNP per man-hour (1963 dollars) Total GNP (1963 dollars) Note: Rates are compound interest between terminal years. lower than the assumed long-term level of 4 percent. For all of the other factors — average hours, labor force growth, and output per man-hour— 1968 was on or very near the long-term trend.2 Therefore, no 0 adjustments for these factors were consid ered necessary. If the adjustment is made for the level of unemployment, the 196880 potential growth rate of the U. S. economy becomes 4.13 percent compared with the 4.09 percent derived without adjust ment. 2' employment and GNP contributes to a more rapid growth of constant-dollar GNP than would have been predicted if the public and private sector shares of out-put had remained constant. Although a shift in out put is taking place, its impact is modest— the 1985 share of private GNP is 93 percent compared to the 1972 share of 91 percent. Potential GNP growth. While the projections of GNP reflect the potential output of the economy in 1980 and 1985 with fully em ployed manpower resources, the growth rate from 1968 to 1980 cannot be considered potential. The base year, 1968, needs to be adjusted for any deviation from trend or potential. Unemployment in 1968 was 20 This determination was made by calculating a least squares trend line, plotting the residuals from the trend line, and observing the 1968 value. 21 For a related discussion, see Arthur M. Okun, "Upw ard Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy,” Brook ings Papers on Economic A ctivity, Issue 1: 1973, pp. 207-61. 25 Chapter 2. Income and Demand GNP The previous chapter was devoted to the discussion of potential GNP estimates. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the major components of GNP from two points of view. GNP is a measure of the flow of goods and services produced and consumed annually. It can thus be measured at two points in the flow, as it is produced or as it is consumed. GNP measured at the point of production, which is termed income GNP, consists of the sum of the earnings of the factors of production. Demand GNP, on the other hand, is the term for GNP measured at the point of consumption or final demand. The first section of this chapter discusses the primary income components of GNP; the second section discusses prices. In the final section the demand components of GNP are presented. The primary income and demand com ponents of GNP are projected with the aid of a macroeconometric model which was originally developed by Lester Thurow of the Massachusetts Institute of Tech nology.2 The model (discussed in more 2 detail in appendix A) has three sectors. The first sector projects the potential sup ply GNP. This section of the model has been overridden by the derivation of supply GNP discussed in chanter 1. The supply part of the model was not used because it was believed to overstate the potential growth in the economy.2 The remaining 3 two sections of the macromodel are devoted to estimating the income and demand com ponents of GNP. In essence, the production of supply GNP generates the income com- ponents and personal income and these in turn determine the demands.If the resulting estimate of demand GNP is not equal to the supply estimate of GNP, it is necessary to bring about equality by modifying various policy assumptions. In practice this is done only until the gap between demand and supply is sufficiently small .so that it is not worth rerunning the model. The residual gap is then allocated on a judgmental basis. In the projections, the 1985 residual be tween supply and demand GNP was only 0.04 percent of GNP in 1985 and 0.26 percent in 1980.2 4 Income GNP The components of GNP as measured by the income approach are frequently pre sented in two different ways. The basic building blocks of income GNP are catego rized according to the form in which they are paid. These categories are: (1) wages and salaries (including supplements), (2) proprietors’ income, (3) rented income, (4) net interest income, and (5) corporate pro fits and inventory valuation adjustment. The second method frequently used is a deriva tion of personal income, that is, income which accrues to persons rather than to corporations or directly to governments. The Thurow model utilizes this method since personal income net of personal taxes is an important link between supply GNP and demand GNP in the model. The derivation of personal income is shown in appendix B, table B2. Because the focus of these pro jections is on how the changing structure of the economy will affect employment by 22See Lester Thurow, " A Fiscal Policy Model of the U. S .,” Survey of Current Business, June 1969, pp. 45-64. The original model developed by Lester Thurow has been revised and updated by the Bureau of Econo mic Analysis of the U. S. Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 23 See appendix A for a fuller discussion of the factors behind the decision not to use the production function in the macromodel. 24 In the Thurow macromodel a considerable number of exogenous variables are used. These data are tabu lated for selected historical years and projected for 1980 and 1985 in appendix table B -l. 26 industry, this section will discuss the sources and disposition of income in three categories — personal income, business, and govern ment.2 This method ofpresentationisused 5 because it provides a more direct approach to the discussion of the structure of demand GNP in the final part of this chapter. Personal income: its sources and disposition. Total personal income, the largest income category, is projected to increase at 8.0 percent a year during 1968-80 (stated in current prices), or appreciably faster than the 6.3 percent a year rate over the 1955-68 period. The increased rate reflects both the faster real growth in GNP and the faster rate of price increase projected. The projected growth in personal income slows down from 1980 to 1985 because of the slowing in growth of real GNP and the somewhat lower rate of price increase. Table 12 depicts two facets of income flows — first, the sources of personal income such as compensation, dividends, or government transfer payments (such as social security), and second, the disposition of personal in come among personal consumption expendi tures, taxes, interest, or savings. Among the sources of personal income — compensation of employees, government transfers, and other 2 —most categories fol 6 low the same pattern of growth — apprecia bly faster in 1968-80 than in 1955-68 — then slowing from 1980 to 1985 to a rate more nearly comparable to the 1955-68 period. The one major category which does not parallel this pattern is government trans fers to persons. These are projected to rise over the period 1968-80 by 10.1 percent a year,- or the same pace as in 1955-68, while’' the slowdown in 1980-85 is much sharper than for other income categories, falling to a growth rate of 5.0 percent. The growth in transfer payments during 197280 is only 7.7 percent a year, which is a marked slowdown from the extremely rapid growth of transfer payments during 1968-72. The past rapid growth of transfer pay25 The foreign sector is not discussed in this report. 26 Other income covers rental income, interest in come, dividends, proprietors’ income, and business trans fers to persons. ments resulted not only from increases in real benefits, but from the broadening cover age of social security and the increased number of individuals receiving welfare pay ments. The projections assume that the broadening of coverage will not be an im portant factor in the future: transfer pay ments will increase only as real benefits increase or as prices increase, and to a much lesser extent because of any expan sion of the number of individuals covered. This projected slower expansion in transfer payments means that their relative contri bution to personal income, which grew from about 5 percent of the total in 1955 to over 10 percent by 1972, will no longer be grow ing. In fact, for 1980-85 their share is ex pected to decline. However, it should be pointed out that if future changes in social security increase real benefits faster than was assumed, broaden coverage, or make other changes affecting payments, the slow down would be moderated. An additional consideration in examining sources of income is contributions for social insurance, which are subtracted from per sonal income. These contributions were pro jected separately for four programs: (1 )old age and survivors’ disability insurance (OASDHI), (2) unemployment insurance, (3) State and local social insurance, and (4) other Federal social insurance programs. OASDHI is the largest of these four cate gories. In 1971 it accounted for 67 percent of total social insurance contributions. The projections of contributions for OASDHI show a large decline in the rate of increase over past rates. From 1955 to 1968 they grew at an average annual rate of 13.8 percent, but the projections imply a growth rate of 7.5 percent from 1968 to 1985. The reasons for this slowdown are embodied within the Social Security Amendments of 1972 which served as the basis for the pro jections. This legislation specifies wage base levels and tax rates. The projections do not attempt to predict the effects of future changes in legislation but rather assume that the current legislation will remain in force. The growth provided for in the tax rates and wage base falls far below past rates of increase. An additional assumption is that coverage will increase only very 27 Table 12. Personal income, sources and disposition, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Projected Component 1955 1958 1959 1963 1968 1965 1971 1970 1972 1980 1985 Billions of current dollars Personal income: sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C om pensation of em ployees .1..... Governm ent transfers to persons ... O ther sources 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less: personal co ntributions for social insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal income, d is p o s itio.n. . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal tax and nontax paym ents. .. In te rest paid by c o n su m ers ........... Personal transfers to foreig n ers ..... Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal consum ption expenditures. $ 3 1 0 .9 21 8 .6 16.1 81 .4 $ 3 6 1 .2 24 9.8 24.1 94.2 $ 3 8 3 .5 2 6 9 .4 24.9 97.1 $ 4 6 5 .5 32 6.0 33.0 118.3 $ 5 3 8 .9 377.6 37.2 137.5 $ 6 8 8 .9 4 0 0 .3 56.1 165.3 $ 8 0 8 .3 5 7 4.2 75.1 18 7.0 $ 8 6 3 .5 6 0 9.8 88.9 195.7 $ 9 3 9 .2 6 6 8 .6 98 .3 2 0 7 .0 $ 1 ,7 3 6 .5 1,195 .7 17 8.4 4 3 0 .8 $ 2 ,3 7 6 .9 1,6 5 5 .9 2 2 7 .6 584.0 5.2 31 0.9 35.5 4.7 .5 15.8 25 4 .4 6.9 361.2 42.3 5.9 .6 22 .3 290.1 7.9 38 3.5 46.2 6.5 .6 19.1 31 1.2 11.8 4 6 5.5 60 .9 9.1 .6 19.9 37 5 .0 13.4 53 8 .9 65.7 11.3 .7 28.4 4 3 2 .8 22 .8 6 8 8 .9 97 .9 14.3 .8 39.8 536.2 28 .0 8 0 8 .3 116.6 16.8 1.0 56.2 6 1 7 .6 30*9 8 6 3.5 117.5 17.7 1.0 60 .2 6 6 7.2 34.7 93 9 .2 142.2 19.7 1.0 49 .7 72 6 .5 68 .4 1,7 3 6 .5 2 6 9 .3 4 3 .9 .8 10 1.3 1,3 2 1 .2 90 .6 2 ,3 7 6 .9 3 9 7 .0 6 1 .6 .8 13 4.3 1,783.1 Percent distribution Personal income: sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C om pensation of em ployees ...... 1 G overnm ent transfers to persons ... O ther sources 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less: personal co ntributions for social insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal income: disposition ............ .. Personal tax and nontax paym ents.... In te rest paid by co n su m ers ........... Personal transfers to fo reig n ers ..... Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal co nsum ption expenditures. 100.0 70.3 5.2 26.2 100.0 69 .2 6.7 26.1 10 0.0 70.4 6.5 25 .3 100.0 70.0 7.1 25.4 100.0 70 .0 6.9 25 .5 10 0.0 71.2 8.1 24 .0 100.0 71 .0 9.3 23.1 100.0 70.6 10.3 22.7 100.0 71 .2 10.5 22 .0 10 0.0 6 8 .9 10 .3 2 4 .8 100.0 69 .7 9.6 24 .6 1.7 10 0.0 11.4 1.5 .2 5.1 81 .8 1.9 100.0 11.7 1.6 .2 6.2 80 .3 2.1 10 0.0 12.0 1.7 .2 5.0 81.1 2.5 100.0 13.1 2.0 .1 4.3 80.6 2.5 10 0.0 12.2 2.1 .1 5.3 80 .3 3.3 100.0 14.2 2.1 .1 5.8 77.8 3.5 100.0 14.4 2.1 .1 7.0 76.4 3.6 10 0.0 13.6 2.0 .1 7.0 77 .3 3.7 100.0 15.1 2.1 .1 5.3 77 .4 3.9 100.0 15.5 2.5 3.8 10 0.0 16.7 2.6 ( 3) ( 3 ) 5.8 76 .2 5.7 75.0 Average annual rates of change 4 Projected 19 55 -68 . Personal income: sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C om pensation of em ployees 1..... Governm ent transfers to pers o n... s O ther sources 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less: personal co ntributions for social insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal income: d is p o s itio.n . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal tax and nontax paym ents.... Interest paid by co nsum ers ........... Personal transfers to fo reigners ..... Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal consum ption expenditures. 19 65 -72 1 9 72 -80 19 68 -85 19 68 -80 19 80 -85 6.3 6.4 10.1 5.6 8.3 8.5 14.9 6.0 8.0 7.5 7.7 9.6 7.6 7.4 8.6 7.7 8.0 7.7 10.1 8.3 6.5 6.7 5.0 6.3 12.1 6.3 8.1 8.9 3.7 7.4 5.9 14.6 8.3 11.7 8.3 5.2 8.3 7.7 8.9 8.0 8.3 10.5 -2 .8 9.3 7.8 8.5 7.6 8.6 9.0 9.6 8.0 8.8 9.8 5.8 6.5 8.1 ^ 7.0 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 7.4 7.3 8.1 7.8 , r b (3) ■ ° - 5.8 6.2 4 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 1 Includes wages and salaries plus other labor income. 2 Includes proprietors’ income, rental incom e of persons, interest in SOURCE: H istorical data from U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau come, dividends, and business transfers to persons. o f Econom ic Analysis; projection s by Bureau of Labor Statistics . 3 Less than .05 percent. 28 slowly from now until 1985. The other three categories of social insur ance contributions show less change from their past rates than OASDHI. As would be expected during a period of prolonged full employment, the unemployment insurance contribution rates paid by employers are projected to decline and remain at a low level. Contributions for State and local government social insurance, which are pri marily for employee retirement funds, show a slightly decreased growth rate from past levels in keeping with the moderate in creases projected for State and local em ployment. Similarly, other Federal social insurance programs, consisting largely of employees’ retirement systems and veter ans’ life insurance, reflect the decreases projected for Federal military and civilian employment. As a whole, social insurance contributions are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.6 percent from 1968 to 1985, nearly 4 percentage points below the 1955-68 rate of 11.8 percent. For the 1980 to 1985 period they are projected to increase at a rate of 4.9 percent, less than the GNP growth rate. Turning to the disposition of personal income among consumption, savings, inter est, and taxes, personal consumption ex penditures— by far the most important of these uses — follow very closely the growth in personal income, both historically and in the projected period. However, some income uses are growing faster than consumption, although the magnitude of consumption ex penditures tends to disguise the fact that their share of income is declining. Personal taxes have increased significantly faster than total personal income during 1955-68 and have represented a growing share of income. As incomes rise, the progressive nature of the Federal income tax causes a greater than proportional increase in the share going to taxes. However, in the 196880 period the tax reduction brought about by the Tax Reform Act of 1969 and a slow ing in the rate of growth in State and local tax collections are expected to narrow the difference. Over the 1980-85 period taxes and personal income return to a relation ship more like the one which prevailed during 1955-68. The other income use which has grown significantly faster than total income is interest. The share of income go ing to interest rose from 1.5 percent in 1955 to 2.1 percent by 1972 and is pro jected to further expand to 2.6 percent by 1985. Savings, unlike taxes and interest, have on the whole taken a constant share of in come over the years 1955 to 1972. The savings rates projected through 1985 are consistent with long-term historical experi ence. Although studies on the causes of changing savings rates have been far from conclusive, most analysts have paid atten tion to the roles of inflation and expecta tions. 2 Findings tend to indicate that both 7 high inflation and pessimistic expectations generated by high unemployment rates have the effect of increasing savings. The un usual combination of inflation and unem ployment which occurred in 1970 and 1971 may have accounted for the unusually high savings rate in those years. The employ ment and inflation assumptions of the pro jections a^ compatible with savings rates closer to those before 1970. Disposable personal income per capita, in current prices, is projected to grow at a markedly higher rate than in the past, particularly over the 1968-80 period, re flecting both an acceleration in real growth and moderately higher prices. The level of per capita disposable personal income rose from $1,659 in 1955 to $3,816 in 1972 (table 13), and is projected to increase to $6,547 in 1980 and $8,400 by 1985. In con stant dollars of 1963 purchasing power, the growth in per capita income is from $2,933 in 1972 to $4,428 in 1985, or a growth of 3.2 percent a year — a truer measure of rising standards of living. However, this rise — as is the case with other elements of the projections — has an uneven pattern of growth within the projected period, expand ing 3.4 percent a year during 1968-80 and slowing to 2.4 percent a year in 1980-85. Gross saving and investment. The second category of income is saving and invest27 See, for example, F. Thomas Juster and Paul Wachtel, "Inflation and the Consumer,"BrookingsPapers on Economic A ctivity: Issue 1: 1972, pp. 71-122. 29 Table 13. Disposable personal income per capita, 19 5 5 ,19 6 8 ,19 7 2 , and projected for 1980 and 1985 Average annual rates of change 1 Protected Item 1955 1968 Projected 1972 1980 1985 1955-68 1968-80 19 80 -85 Disposable personal incom e per capita (cu rre n t d o lla rs.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1 ,6 5 9 $ 2 ,9 4 5 $ 3 ,8 1 6 $6 ,54 7 $ 8 ,40 0 4.5 6.9 5.1 Disposable personal incom e per capita (1 9 6 3 d o lla rs.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,897 2,6 3 9 2 ,9 3 3 3,941 4,4 2 8 2.6 3.4 2.4 1 Compound interest rates between term in al years SOURCE: Comm erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Historical data in current dollars from U.S. D epartm ent of ment. Among the sources of funds for in vestment— personal, business, or public saving — the largest is business. This cate gory is projected to follow the general pat tern of most income items — a rate of increase in 1968-80 appreciably above 195568, followed by a moderating in the rate of growth in 1980-85 to one comparable to the 1955-68 pace (table 14). The major fac tor behind this expansion in the 1970’s is the rapid rate of economic growth. A large part of business saving consists of capital consumption allowances, which are a measure of the capital stock which is used up in the production of the GNP. The largest part of capital consumption allow ances is depreciation, which reflects, among other factors, Internal Revenue Service regulations such as accelerated deprecia tion allowances. In the Thurow macromodel, corporate capital consumption allowances are dependent on the stock of capital and its age, while the noncorporate portion is related primarily to the stock of housing. As a whole, capital consumption allowances are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.5 percent from 1968 to 1985, at the same rate as GNP. Although the over all 1968-85 rate of growth of capital con sumption allowances is the same as for GNP, there is a much smaller decline in the 1980 to 1985 period. The growth rate for capital stock takes longer to reflect the slower growth in the GNP. Personal saving is not projected to accele rate in the 1970’s in spite of the increased rate of growth of income. The unusually high savings rates of the late 1960’s and early 1970’s are expected to return to rates data in 1963 dollars an iections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. nearer the long-term average by the mid1970’s. Saving is used primarily for gross private domestic investment. In the projections, the 1968-80 growth in investment is appreciably higher than in 1955-68—8.5 percent com pared with 4.9 percent (both in current prices) (table 14). This difference in the projected growth is due to a rise in the prices of investment goods, an expansion in the rate of real growth in nonresidential investment, and a large increase in the rate of residential construction. Government revenues and expenditures. Government revenues and expenditures (on a national income accounts basis) is the comprehensive account for government transactions. Revenues include personal taxes, corporate profits taxes, indirect busi ness taxes, and contributions for social insurance. The expenditures account in cludes, in addition to purchases of goods and services, transfer payments, interest payments, subsidies, current outlays of gov ernment enterprises, and land acquisition. The major factors affecting government revenues and expenditures, in addition to the changing growth pattern of real GNP in the projected period, are tax receipts, defense expenditures, and the changing demographic composition of the population. In total, Federal revenues are projected to grow slightly faster than expenditures. From 1972 to 1980, revenues are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.9 percent while expenditures will grow at 7.4 percent (table 15). During 1980-85 Federal revenues are projected to advance 30 Table 14. Gross saving and investment, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Projected Component 1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 Billions of current dollars Gross saving !. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Business saving 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Government surplus or d e fic it ( -... ) Other 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.9 15.8 46.3 2.7 2.1 60.7 22 .3 49 .4 - 1 2 .5 1.6 73.0 19.1 56.8 -2 .1 -.8 90 .2 19.9 6 8 .8 1.8 -.3 112.2 28 .4 84 .7 2.2 -3 .1 125.6 39 .8 95 .4 -6 .8 -2 .7 13 7.6 56.2 97 .0 -1 0 .1 - 5.5 151.1 60 .2 111.4 - 1 8 .1 - 2.3 170.6 47.7 12 4.8 -2 .8 -1 .1 34 0.2 10 1.3 25 1 .6 -1 3 .8 1.0 45 2.8 134.3 33 1 .2 -1 3 .4 .7 Gross inv estm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gross private dom estic investm ent... Net foreign in v estm en................. t 66.9 67.4 -.5 60.7 60 .9 -.2 73.0 75 .3 -2 .3 90 .2 87.1 3.1 11 2.2 108.1 4.1 125.6 126.0 - .4 137.6 136.3 1.3 151.1 15 3.2 - 2.1 170.6 17 8.3 - 7.6 34 0.2 3 3 4.6 5.6 45 2 .8 4 4 5.3 7.5 Percent distribution Gross saving 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Business saving 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Government surplus or d e ficit ( -... ) O ther 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 23.6 69.2 4.0 3.1 100.0 36.7 81 .4 - 2 0 .6 2.6 100.0 26.2 77 .8 -2 .9 -1 .1 100.0 22.1 76 .3 2.0 -.3 100.0 2 5 .3 75 .5 2.0 -2 .8 100.0 31.7 76.0 -7 .8 - 2.1 10 0.0 40 .8 70.5 -1 2 .0 -4 .0 100.0 3 9 .8 73.7 -1 .6 1.5 100.0 29.1 73.2 - 1.6 - .6 100.0 29 .8 74 .0 - 4.1 .3 100.0 29.7 73.1 -3 .0 .2 Gross investm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t... N et foreign in v estm en................. t 100.0 100.7 - .7 100.0 100.3 ' - .3 100.0 103.2 -3 .2 100.0 96 .6 3.4 100.0 96 .3 3.7 10 0.0 100.3 -.3 100.0 99.1 .9 100.0 101.4 - 1.4 10 0.0 104.5 -4 .5 100.0 98 .4 1.6 100.0 98.3 1.7 Average annual rates of change 4 Projected 1955-68 1 9 65 -72 19 72 -80 19 68 -85 1968-80 1980-85 Gross saving 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal saving. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Business saving 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 7.4 5.7 6.2 8.3 5.7 9.0 9.3 9.2 7.8 7.4 7.6 8.7 8.1 8.4 5.9 5.8 5.7 Gross investm en t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t... N et foreign inv estm ent ................. 5.0 4.9 1 7 6.2 7.4 9.0 8.2 7.8 7.7 8.7 85 ( 5) ( 5) ( 5) ( 5) 5.9 5.9 6.0 1 Gross saving has been adjusted for the statistical discrepancy. 4 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 2 Include undistributed co rporate profits, corporate inventoryvaluation 5 Not calculated because of change in sign. ad justm ent and co rporate and noncorporate capital consum ption allowances. 3 Includes capital grants received by th e United States, wage accruals SOURCE: Historical data from the U.S. D epa rtm ent of Comm erce, Bu reau of Economic Analysis: projection s by Bureau of Labor Statistics. less disbursem ents, and the statistical discrepancy. In spite of the fact that revenues are projected to grow faster than expenditures, there will still be a $4.5 billion deficit in 1985. Thus, even with a slowing in the rates of growth of all components of Federal expenditures, present tax laws do not gener ate enough Federal revenues to keep the budget in balance or produce a surplus under full-employment conditions. A look at the composition of Federal revenues (table 15) shows a somewhat dif- 6.3 percent annually while expenditures grow at 5.9 percent. The projections of personal and corporate income taxes were adjusted for the estimated effects of the provisions of the Tax Reform Act of 1969,2 8 but do not assume any major changes in present tax laws. 28 In 1985, this adjustment accounts for a reduction of $24.6 billion in revenues. 31 Table 15. Federal Government revenues and expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 (National income accounts basis) Pro] ected Category 1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1971 1972 1980 1985 $1 98 .9 $ 2 .2 8 .7 1 0 7 .9 89.9 37 .8 33.3 $ 4 2 1 .0 19 5.8 86 .5 $ 5 7 0 .0 289 0 112.1 1970 Billions of c u . rent dollars R ev en u e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ts .... C orporate p ro fits taxes................ . Ind ire ct business tax and nontax re c e ip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ontributions fo r social insurance.... $72.1 31 .4 20 .6 $7 8.7 36.8 18.0 $8 9 .7 39.9 22.5 $ 1 14 .5 51.5 24.6 $ 1 24 .7 53.8 29.3 $ 1 7 5 .0 79.7 36.7 $ 1 9 2 .0 92 .2 31 .0 10.7 9.3 11.5 12.4 12.5 14.8 15.3 23.1 16.5 2 5 .1 18.0 40.7 19.3 4 9 .5 20.4 55.2 19.9 ‘ 63 .0 30 .2 10 8.6 36 .5 13 2.3 E xp enditu res . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... Purchases of goods and services T ran sfer paym ents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Grants-in-aid to S tate and local . go v ern m e n ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Net interest p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68.1 44.1 14.5 88.9 53.6 21.3 91 .0 53.7 21.9 113.9 64.2 29.1 123.5 66 .9 32.5 18 1.5 98 .8 48.2 2 0 3 .9 96 .2 6 3 .2 22 1.0 98.1 74.9 2 4 4 .6 104.4 8 2 .9 4 3 1.7 166.6 149.7 57 4 .5 2 1 8 .5 191.9 3.1 4.9 1.5 5.6 5.6 2.7 6.8 6.4 2.1 9.1 7.7 3.6 11.1 8.7 4.3 18.7 11.7 4.1 24 .4 14.6 5.5 29.1 13.6 5.4 37.7 13.5 6.1 90 .2 18.1 7.0 1 3 7.5 18.7 8.0 4.0 - 10.2 - 1.2 .7 1.2 - 6.5 -1 1 .9 - 22.2 - 15.9 - 10.6 - 4.5 Federal surplus or d e fic it ( - ............. ) Percent dis tribution R ev enue s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ts .... Corporate profits tax es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . In d ire ct business tax and nontax re c e ip ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ontributions for social in s u ran c e.... 100.0 43 .6 28 .6 100.0 46 .8 22 .9 10 0.0 44.5 25.1 10 0.0 45.0 21 .5 100.0 43.1 23 .5 100.0 45.5 21 .0 10 0.0 48 .0 16.1 100.0 45.2 16.7 10 0.0 47 .2 16.5 10 0.0 4 6 .5 20 .5 100.0 50.7 19.7 14.8 12.9 14.6 15.8 13.9 16.5 13.4 20 .2 13.2 20.1 10.3 23 .3 10.1 2 5 .8 10.3 27 .8 8.7 2 7 .5 7.2 2 5 .8 6.4 23 .2 Exp enditu res. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... Purchases of goods and services Tran sfer paym ents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Grants-in-aid to S tate and local 100.0 64.8 21 .3 100.0 60 .3 24.0 10 0.0 59.0 24.1 100.0 56.4 25 .5 100.0 54.2 26.3 10 0.0 54.4 26.6 10 0.0 47.2 31 .0 100.0 44.4 33.9 10 0.0 42.7 33 .9 1 0 0.0 3 8 .6 34.7 100.0 38.0 33 .4 4.6 7.2 2.2 6.3 6.3 3.0 7.5 7.0 2.3 8.0 6.8 3.2 9.0 7.0 3.5 10.3 6.4 2.3 12.0 7.2 2.7 13.2 6.2 2.4 15.4 5.5 2.5 2 0 .9 4.2 1.6 23 .9 3.3 1.4 g o ve rn m e n ts........................................ . N et interest p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Average annual rates of change 2 Projected 19 55 -68 R ev enue s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ts .... Corporate profits taxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Indirect business tax and nontax rec eip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ontributions for social in s u ra n c e .... E xpenditures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Purchases of goods and services .... T ran sfer paym ents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Grants-in-aid to S tate and local g ov ernm e nts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N et interest pa id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 65 -72 19 72 -80 1 9 68 -85 19 68 -80 7.1 7.4 4.5 9.1 10.5 3.7 7.9 7.7 10.9 7.2 7.9 6.8 7.6 7.8 7.4 6.3 8.1 5.3 4.1 12.0 2.7 14.1 5.4 7.0 4.3 7.2 4.4 8.5 3.9 4.0 7.8 6.4 9.7 10.3 6.6 14.3 7.4 6.1 7.7 7.0 4.8 8.5 7.5 4.5 9.9 5.9 5.6 5.1 14.8 6.9 8.0 19.1 6.5 5.1 11.5 3.7 1.7 12.5 2.8 4.0 14.0 3.7 4.6 8.8 .6 2.7 19 80 -85 Includes subsidies less current surplus of governm ent enterprises S O U R C E: Historical data from U .S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of plus a sm all am ount of wage accruals less disbursem ents in 1971 and 1972. Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 32 with different factors influencing each component. Federal purchases of goods and services increased by about 6.5 percent a year dur ing 1955-72. They are projected to slow to an increase of 6.1 percent a year during 1972-80 and to 5.6 percent during 1980-85, as expenditures on defense and the space program decline from their earlier high rates of growth. The proportion of Federal ex penditures going for purchases of goods and services declined from 65 percent in 1955 to 43 percent by 1972 and is projected to decline to 38 percent in 1985 (chart 4 )• The two major expenditure categories of grants-in-aid and transfer payments have been sources of very rapid growth in recent years. Between 1965 and 1972 grants-in-aid to State and local governments grew at a rate of 19 percent annually. Their growth is projected to slow down considerably after 1972, 11.5 percent annually from 1972 to 1980. The 14.0 percent growth rate shown from 1968 to 1980 is influenced by the very rapid increase between 1968 and 1972. Therefore, the apparent sharp drop after 1980 is an overstatement. Comparing 197280 with 1980-85, the slowdown is from 11.5 percent to 8.8 percent on an annual basis. This slowdown in grants-in-aid reflects the somewhat better financial position of State and local governments and the inevitable slowing in a category after an initial rapid growth phase. (If grants-in-aid were to grow during 1972-85 at the 19 percent a year pace of 1965-72, they would equal $362 billion, or almost two-thirds of ex pected Federal revenue by 1985.) The other major source of growth in Fed eral expenditures has been transfer pay ments. In 1972, transfer payments (suchas social security and welfare payments) and net interest accounted for nearly 40 percent of Federal expenditures, and had increased at an annual rate of 12.9 percent since 1965. A much sharper slowdown is pro jected for transfer payments and net interest than for grants. The important factor in the past growth of transfer payments, not ex pected to be a factor in the future, was growth in the population covered. From 1975 to 1985 the growth in transfer pay ments was assumed to be equal to the sum ferent pattern for the projected period (1972-85) than in the past. In the 1955-72 period, social insurance contributions far outpaced other Federal revenues in their rates of growth. As a result, during this period social insurance contributions in creased from 13 percent of total Federal revenues to over 27 percent by 1972. How ever, in the 1972-80 period they are pro jected to increase at a somewhat slower rate than total Federal revenues and thus will decline as a percent of the total. In the 1980-85 period the difference is even more pronounced. The slowdown reflects the fact that social insurance contributions are not progressive and, unless rate changes are made, they will increase at a slower rate than income tax revenues, which are progressive. The increasing share of revenue sin 195572 coming from social insurance contribu tions offsets declines in the share repre senting corporate profits taxes and indirect business taxes. Indirect business taxes in 1972-85 are projected to continue to decline as a share of Federal revenues, since they are not progressive. On the other hand, personal income taxes in the 1972-85 period represent a larger share of Federal revenues because they have a progressive rate struc ture. The projections of corporate profits taxes are consistent with their historical share of Federal revenues. Total Federal expenditures are projected to be $431.7 billion in 1980 and $574.5 bil lion in 1985 (in current dollars), with the 1985 level more than double the 1972 level of $244.6 billion (table 15). Total Federal Government expenditures are less volatile than expenditures for goods and services alone, a component which is strongly in fluenced by the military budget. A sizable slowdown is expected in the growth of Fed eral expenditures. After increasing at an average annual rate of 10.3 percent from 1965 to 1972, Federal expenditures are projected to slow to an increase of 7.5 per cent of a year from 1968 to 1980, 7.4 percent from 1972 to 1980 and 5.9 percent in 1980-85. This slowdown in Federal ex penditures reflects a general decrease in the growth of each of the major components, 33 C h art 4 Federal Government Expenditures, Selected Years 1 9 5 5 -7 2 and Projected for 1980 and 19 85 Percent d istrib u tio n T*-7-rT — S K® SS Other Percent 100 'jy jg g ife i'^ '.r g y mm Net interest paid Grants-in-aid to State and local governments ’ * ?w T ;-V •* :* s* ISP 1111 <r z l BsaagSTss SSis* &ftS : <j&T g S tfg$L g 5 HgpH ^ ;s M sB$£! S g ®M iS S *; :* j. r 90 V wmm — 80 ^S ; 5M i i l t ?v& 3 :§ #S Transfer payments 70 60 :iW r ■ -p :V ■'S;: SfesS S oJ' IJ§ 5 if 50 "A V ^’ciy- ivjy'!£i;% t 40 Purchases o f goods and services ^l-.1.v .tt' •v r 'T y,,^yyV'-'' W0M 30 , ' i| ' ■■■ j > ’ ’.'-i/VJ'ivv20 — 1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 34 10 of the rates of increase in prices (the per sonal consumption expenditures deflator) and in the number of persons over 62 years of age, both of which were projected to be growing at a slower rate than in recent experience. The implicit assumption is that Federal transfers will keep up with inflation and with the growth in the number of re cipients, but that no major new programs will be begun. Turning next to State and local govern ment revenues and expenditures (table 16), they are projected to increase as they have in the past, at faster rates than GNP and Federal Government revenues and expendi tures. As a consequence of this rapid growth, State and local revenues and ex penditures, which were less than one-half the Federal level in 1955, by 1985 are pro jected to be about 90 percent of the level of the Federal government. State and local government revenues and expenditures are projected (endogenously in the macromodel) and are affected by the growth of GNP and the continued growth of grants-in-aid, but also reflect a projected decline in school enrollees as a share of the population. Thus, even though the growth in GNP would con tinue to spur State and local government expenditures, their growth is projected to taper off from recent rates because of the slowdown in school enrollments and the slower expansion in Federal grants to State and local governments. State and local ex penditure growth is expected to decline from an annual rate of 11.9 percent between 1965 and 1972 to 10.1 percent from 1972 to 1980. As a result of the assumed slow down for grants-in-aid and slower growth in GNP after 1980, the growth rate of State and local expenditures falls to 7.8 percent a year in current dollars between 1980 and 1985. State and local expenditures and reve nues have remained quite close to one another in the past (1972 and 1973 being notable exceptions). This is primarily due to the statutory restrictions against State and local borrowing to finance current ex penditures which constrain many of these governments. In the projections it was assumed initially, therefore, that State and local revenues were equal to expenditures. This was accomplished by lowering the personal tax projections by the difference between total expenditures and the sum of the five revenue categories projected by the model. By so doing, the rate of increase in State and local tax rates was dampened. The tendency for the personal income tax equation to overpredict revenues made this procedure the most realistic means of main taining a balance between expenditures and receipts.2 9 As noted, total State and local govern ment revenues have increased in the past at rates closely paralleling expenditures. For example, in the 1955-68 period the expansion of these revenues was at 9.9 percent a year compared with 9.6 percent each year for expenditures (table 16). The projections of State and local revenues also closely parallel those for expenditures. Thus, the growth during 1968-80 at 10.4 percent a year is significantly faster than the 7. 7 percent a year pace of 1980-85, the slow down reflecting both the slower GNP growth and a projected slowing of Federal grantsin-aid (an important State and local govern ment revenue source). Within total State and local revenues, im portant shifts have been taking place and are projected to continue. Personal income taxes and Federal grants-in-aid increased as a percent of total State and local revenues during 1955-72 — and the projections contin ue that increase (chart 5). At the same time indirect business taxes (largely sales and property taxes), lacking progressivity, do not increase as fast as other State and local revenues and thus constitute a declin ing share of revenues (from 68 percent in 1955 to a projected 42 percent by 1985). 2 9 The small deficits for State and local governments shown in table 16 are the result of distributing a part of the residual supply-demand gap in the Thurow model to State and local government purchases. The personal in come tax equation predicts large increases in State and local income tax collections because, during the period of its fit, 1947-71, many States were adding income taxes for the first time or were increasing rates from nominally low rates (1 or 2 percent) to 2-4 percent. Therefore, implicitly, the model is picking up a relationship between income changes and State and local tax rates which clearly cannot continue into the future. This equation, if unconstrained, would show State and local personal tax revenues in 1985 approaching Federal revenues in magni tude. 35 Table 16. State and local revenues and expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected tor 1980 and 1985 Projected Category 1958 1955 1959 1963 1965 1968 1971 1972 1980 $ 1 5 2 .3 $ 1 7 7 .2 27J 34 .3 4.1 4.9 $ 3 4 9 .8 73 .5 9.1 $ 5 0 5 .8 10 8 .0 14.6 1970 1985 Billions of current dollars R e v en u e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ... ts Corporate profits taxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . In d ire ct business tax and nontax rec eip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Contributions fo r social insurance.... Federal gran ts-in-aid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $3 1 .4 4.1 1.0 $4 1.6 5.5 1.0 $4 6 .0 6.3 1.2 $ 6 3 .4 9.4 1.7 $ 7 5 .5 11.8 2.1 $1 07 .1 18.3 3.2 $ 1 3 5 .0 24 .4 3.8 21 .4 1.8 3.1 27 .0 2.5 5.6 28 .9 2.7 6.8 39 .4 3.8 9.1 45 .9 4.5 11.1 60 .6 6.4 18.7 74.1 8.3 24 .4 82 .0 9.4 29.1 89 .6 10.7 37.7 156.4 20.7 90 .2 2 1 3 .9 31 .8 13 7.5 Exp enditu res . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... Purchases of goods and services Transfers paym ents to pers o n...... s N et interest p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less: cu rrent surplus of governm ent en terprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.7 30.1 3.7 .5 44 .0 40 .6 4.6 .6 46 .8 43 .3 4.8 .7 62 .2 58.2 6.0 .8 74 .5 70.2 6.9 .5 107.5 100.8 10.0 (2 ) 133.2 12 3.3 14.1 -.4 ' 14 8.3 136.2 16.6 -.2 ' 1 6 4.0 15 0.5 18.2 -.4 3 5 3.0 32 6.0 31 .0 .5 51 4.7 4 8 0 .8 38 .2 .7 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4 .4 4.5 4.9 -2 .3 - .8 1.2 1.0 .3 1.8 4.0 13.1 -3 .2 - Surplus or d e fic it (— ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 1.3 - 8.9 Percent dis tribution R e v en u e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ts. . .. Corporate profits tax es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ind ire ct business tax and nontax receip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ontributions fo r social in s u ran c e.... Federal gran ts-in-aid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 13.1 3.1 foo.o 13.4 2.4 10 0.0 13.7 2.7 100.0 14.8 2.7 100.0 15.7 2.7 100.0 17.1 2.9 10 0.0 18.1 2.8 10 0 .0 18.2 2.7 10 0.0 19.4 2.7 100.0 2 1 .0 2.6 1 0 0.0 21 .4 2.9 68.1 5.8 9.9 64.7 6.0 13.5 62 .9 5.9 14.8 62.1 6.0 14.4 60 .9 5.9 14.7 56.6 6.0 17.4 54.9 6.1 18.1 53.8 6.2 19.1 50 .6 6 .0 2 1 .3 44.7 5.9 25 .8 42 .3 6.3 27 .2 Exp enditu res. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Purchases of goods and services ..... Tran sfers paym ents to pers o n...... s 100.0 92.2 11.2 1.4 100.0 92 .2 10.4 1.4 100.0 92 .6 10.3 1.5 10 0.0 93 .6 9.7 1.2 100.0 94 .2 9.2 .7 100.0 93 .8 9.3 — 10 0.0 92 .6 10.6 -.3 100.0 91 .9 11.2 - 1 1 0 0.0 91 .8 11.1 -.3 100.0 9 2 .4 8.8 .1 10 0.0 93 .4 7.4 .1 4.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.0 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7 1.3 1.0 N et in te re s t p a id .................................... Less: cu rre nt surplus of governm ent en terprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Average annual rates of c h a n g e 3 Projected 1955-68 R e v en u e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ... ts C orporate profits tax es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . In d ire ct business tax and nontax receip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Contributions fo r social insurance.... Federal gran ts-in-aid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Exp enditu res. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Purchases of goods and services ..... Transfers paym ents to pers o n...... s N et interest p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less: cu rrent surplus of governm ent en terprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1965-72 19 72 -80 19 68 -85 1 9 68 -80 19 80 -85 9.90 12.17 9.5 0 12.97 16.40 13 .09 8.88 10.00 8.16 9.5 6 11.02 9.44 10.36 12 .30 9.2 4 7.6 5 8.00 9.92 8.34 10 .23 14.76 10 .02 13 .23 19 .04 7.21 8.59 11 .5 3 7.7 0 9.87 12.46 8.2 2 10 .25 14 .02 6.46 8.97 8.8 0 9.59 9.74 8.07 -17.41 11.92 11.52 14 .89 10.05 10 .14 6.88 ( 4 ) ( 4 ) 9.6 5 9.6 3 8.1 9 18.51 10.42 10 .28 9.87 23 .6 9 7.83 8.0 8 4.27 6.96 6.12 5.62 2.2 0 2.40 1.72 .22 1 D etail does not include wage accruals less disbursem ents. 2 Less than $ 5 0 m illion. 3 Compound interest rates between term inal years. Not ca,culatec*SOURCE: H istorical data fro m U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Economic Analysis; projection s by Bureau of Labor S tatistics. 36 C h art 5. State and Local Government Revenues, Selected Years 1 9 5 5 -7 2 and Projected for 1 9 8 0 and 1985 Percent d istribution Percent 100 Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits taxes Indirect business tax and nontax receipts C ontributions fo r social insurance W Federal grants-in-aid §m 1 ’ i l l 8j B W 0 4 s s 10 |8 S H a w Mmmmmwmmm .... 1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 37 Table 1 7 . Price changes, GNP and major components, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85 Average annual rates of change 1 Component Projected 19 55 -68 Gross national pro d u c t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal c o n s u m p tio .n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N onresldentlal in v estm en t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential in v e s tm e n. t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Exp orts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal purchases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and local p u rc h ase s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total private e c o n o m y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 1.9 2.4 2.6 1.2 .5 2.9 4.0 2.0 19 65 -72 1972-80 1968-85 19 68 -80 19 80 -85 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.6 3.2 3.7 5.8 5.8 3.7 3.2 3.1 2.6 3.3 1.1 .8 2.8 4.3 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.6 2.0 2.2 4.1 4.7 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.8 2.1 2.3 4.4 4.9 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.6 3.1 1.9 1.9 3.3 4.3 2.8 1 Compound interest rates between term in al years. SOURCE: Historical data from U S. D epartm ent of Com m erc of Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. For State and local governments, the goods and services component of expendi tures represents well over 90 percent. Therefore, the growth rate of purchases tends to be almost identical to that of total State and local expenditures. State and local transfer payments represented a de clining share of expenditures over the 195565 period. After that, an increase in their growth rate relative to total expenditures took place, reversing the decline in their relative share. State and local government transfers to persons are dominated by Medi caid and welfare programs. These transfers have experienced very rapid growth in re cent years, largely due to increasing num bers of recipients. For example, between 1967 and 1970 the number of families under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program doubled, from 1.3 to 2.6 million, accounting for nearly all of the growth in program benefits. This source of rapid growth is expected to taper off after 1975, when the number of recipients will have stabilized as a percent of the popula tion. These expectations are based on natural limits in the programs as well as the effects of prolonged high employment rates. As was the case with Federal trans fer payments, assuming no significant new programs, the growth rate of State and local transfers is assumed to equal the sum of the population growth rate and the rate of increase in prices (as reflected by the personal consumption expenditures defla tor) from 1975 to 1985. Prices The macromodel used in developing these projections yields a combination of currentand constant-dollar GNP projections. A set of deflators is required in order to convert the current dollars from the income sector for use in the demand and supply sectors. The model uses deflators for the major components of demand GNP and for private GNP. For the purposes of these projections, the constant-dollar estimates are the crucial ones since they are the basis for the final demand estimates subsequently used in the input-output system. Nevertheless, a brief discussion of the price projections may be useful. The private GNP deflator was pro jected exogenously and the model generates the component deflators on the basis of the private sector projections. 3 0 GNP price projections. The private sector inflation rate is projected to stabilize at 2.8 percent a year after 1975, with the price increase for the total economy sta bilizing at 3.0 percent (table 17). These rates are well above those of the 1955 to 1968 period, but below the 1965 to 1972 period. Thus, the projected rates of price 30 While the overall GNP deflator is set by assump tion, the deflators for major demand components con sistent with the overall deflator are developed using an extension of the macromodel developed by Richard Barth. See "T h e Development of Wage and Price Relationships for a Long-Term Econometric Model.” Survey of Current Business, August 1972, pp. 15-20. 38 increase are consistent with the belief that recent inflation levels have consisted of both temporary cyclical effects and some more permanent effects which will persist in the projection period. The private sector deflators show relative growth rates con sistent with past experience, although the variation is slightly less, relative to the private GNP deflator. The government defla tors are also generally consistent with past experience, except for the low growth of the Federal purchases deflator from a 1972 base. This distorts the long-term Federal deflator projections because of the very large increase in the Federal deflator from 1971 to 1972. lower the share of real personal consump tion expenditures. This comes about as a result of offsetting changes. First, personal income falls as a percentage of current-dollar GNP as inflation rates increase. Also, the influence of progressive tax rates causes disposable personal income as a percent of GNP to fall even further. The second change, which nearly offsets the first, is that the PCE deflator moves less than proportionate ly to the private GNP deflator. The net result of moving from a 2.8-percent to a 4.0-percent inflation assumption is to lower the real share of personal consumption expenditures by 0.3 percent. When interest rates are allowed to change with the alter native inflation assumptions, the effects on personal consumption expenditures are nul lified. However, the changes in interest rates affect residential construction. For example, in moving from 2.8 to 4.0-percent inflation (with the interest rate increased also), the residential investment share of real GNP is reduced by 0.4 percent. Thus, the results of the analysis indicate that, within the somewhat narrow range of price assumptions tested here, no appreci able change in the distribution of real demand GNP results. This follows because the price deflators for the components of GNP tend to maintain their position rela tive to the total GNP deflator. However, it should be pointed out that the price model used may, by and large, be linear so that within almost all ranges of prices used this same conclusion would result. It would seem Alternative price assumptions. Because of real uncertainty attached to any longrun price projections, several test runs of the macromodel were made in order to estimate the effect of different rates of inflation on the 1985 distribution of the demand GNP components (in real terms). The procedure used was to enter longrun private GNP inflation rates of 2.5 and 4.0 percent and compare the projections to those based on the basic 2.8-percent rate. In each run the demand component deflators corresponding to the alternative inflation rates were derived within the model by equations link ing them with the private GNP deflators. In addition, various exogenous variables which are related to the level of inflation, such as government compensation rates, transfer payments, and the social security wage base, were adjusted to be consistent to be a reasonable question as to how close with the new inflation levels. The relation ship between interest rates and inflation levels is not clear and has not been quanti fied. In order to determine possible effects of interest-rate change, each inflation level was run under two interest-rate assumptions (1) interest rates unchanged from the basic model, and (2) interest rates changed by the same amount as the rate of inflation. The results of the runs on alternative rates of inflation showed that the level of inflation within the ranges tested has only a very slight effect upon the distribution of the demand components of real GNP. When interest rates are held constant, the only significant effect of higher inflation is to to reality this may actually be. Also, these tests did not explore the impact on prices of changes below the major component level. This could also be an important factor which could influence the structure of real GNP. An additional test of the price assump tion entailed using the endogenous part of the price-wage model to derive the overall GNP deflator rather than setting it by assumption. Here the concern is whether a 4-percent unemployment rate and the 3percent rise in the deflator are consistent. Tests with this portion of the macromodel indicated that it was not so much the level of unemployment that affects prices as the speed at which a specified unemployment 39 rate is approached. Thus, a gradual decline in the unemployment rate to 4 percent is not incompatible with a 3-percent rate of price increase. In fact, the model derived an appreciably lower rate of price change. However, the 3-percent rate of price in crease may not be compatible with substan tial cyclical changes in the unemployment rate. This is a subject requiring further investigation. sonal consumption expenditures (PCE), the largest category of demand GNP, is defined as the measure of the market value of goods and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the imputed value of goods and services received as income in kind.3 PCE accounts for nearly 1 two-thirds of constant-dollar GNP. Historically, real PCE has grown slightly faster than GNP, but more slowly than per sonal income (because of increases in the share of income going to interest and taxes), one of its primary determinants. The pat tern of projected PCE growth is similar to that of the total economy (table 18). After 1980, PCE growth falls to 3.3 percent annually (1963 dollars) from its 4.3 per cent rate from 1968 to 1980. It should be emphasized here that the slowdown pro jected for PCE and GNP growth after 1980 does not represent an assumed recession. The full-employment assumption is main tained throughout the projection period and the pattern of PCE growth for the economy results from the slowdown in labor force growth and the resulting slowdown in GNP and disposable personal income. However, from 1972 to 1980, PCE shows about the same rate of growth as GNP. PCE is not increasing at a faster rate than GNP primarily because of the recovery in investment and the net export position over this period and the already high level of PCE in 1972. On the other hand, by 1980, PCE is again growing at, or slightly above, the GNP rate.3 2 The prices of consumer goods and ser vices have, historically, increased less than total GNP prices. This behavior is pro- Demand GNP In chapter 1 the projected growth in real GNP during 1968-80 and 1980-85 were discussed. In an earlier section of this chap ter the growth in income for the same time periods was analyzed. These two factors, overall growth in the economy and relative growth of income components, are basic determinants of the relative growth in de mand GNP and its composition. The discus sion in this section will concentrate on changes in major demand components. A discussion of the detailed changes in distri bution within each demand category is con tained in chapter 3. The demand approach to determining the gross national product consists of the measurement of income at the point of ex penditures rather than as it is earned. Demand GNP is commonly broken down into four major categories of expenditures. These are (1) personal consumption ex penditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services. The demand sector of the macroeconometric model provides esti mates of these categories in constant dol lars. (Table 18 shows the components of demand GNP in 1963 dollars for selected historical years and as projected for 1980 and 1985.) Most of the discussion in this section is in terms of constant dollars, since these are the basic projections and repre sent changes in real production from the economic resources available, net of infla tion. However, a corresponding table on the current-dollar components of GNP is pro vided in appendix B (table B-3). 311mputed items include the space-rental value of owner-occupied houses; clothing and housing furnished in kind to government, military, and business employees; fuel and food produced and consumed on farms; and ser vices received from financial institutions, excluding insur ance received without explicit charge. 3 2It should be emphasized again that, for the purpose of comparing historical trends and long-term projections, 1968 is a more appropriate base than 1972 since 1968 is more comparable to the full-employment assumptions for the projected years. Measurement from comparable points in the business cycle gives the best indication of long-term trends; the 1972 to 1980 period, for example, has more of the characteristics of a re covery period. Personal consumption expenditures. Per 40 Table 18. GNP and major demand components, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 198b Proiected Component 1955 1958 1959 1963' 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 Billions of 1963 dollars Gross national p ro d u c t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal consum ption e x p en d itu res. Gross private dom estic investm en t... Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n re s id e n tia.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Change in business in v e n to rie s ... Net exports of goods and services ... S p o r t s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Governm ent purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal G o v e rn m en t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and local governm ent ...... $468.7 $479.1 291.2 30 7.3 78.7 64.1 72.8 65.5 45.8 43.3 27.0 22.2 5.9 - 1 . 4 2.4 3.4 21.1 23.2 17.7 20 .8 95.3 54.7 40.7 10 5.3 57.6 47.7 $ 5 0 9 .5 32 6.2 76.6 72.3 45 .8 26.5 4.4 .4 24.0 23.6 590.4 375.5 85 .8 80.5 53.9 26.6 5.3 5.8 32.5 26 .6 $ 6 6 1 .8 4 2 3.2 102.4 94.1 68 .5 25.6 8.3 6.5 37.9 31.4 $ 7 5 9 .2 4 8 1 .8 10 9.3 10 3.4 78.4 25 .0 5.9 1.3 46 .2 4 4 .9 $7 76 .1 50 8 .0 107.4 10 3 .8 79 .9 23 .8 3.6 2.6 52 .8 50 .2 $ 8 0 0 .4 5 2 7.6 114.7 10 9.8 78.7 31.2 4.9 .7 53 .3 52 .6 $ 8 4 8 .9 5 5 9.6 128.0 123.8 86 .5 37.3 4.2 - 1.6 57 .0 58 .6 $ 1 ,2 2 8 .2 79 9.9 192.7 181.9 141.0 40 .8 10.8 6.3 104.5 98.2 $ 1 ,4 4 1 .5 94 1 .9 22 4 .2 21 3 .8 165.4 48 .4 10.4 7.2 133.0 125.9 106.3 56.5 49.7 123.2 64.1 59.1 129.7 62.5 67 .2 166.8 84.4 82.3 158.1 69.4 88 .6 157.3 65 .7 91 .6 162.9 65.7 97 .2 2 2 9 .3 80.1 149.1 26 8.2 88 .9 179.3 Percent distribution Gross national p ro d u c.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal consum ption e x p en d itu res.. Gross private dom estic investm ent. .. Fixed in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n re s id e n tia.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R esidential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Change in business in v e n to rie... s Net exports of goods and services .... E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Governm ent purchases of goods and ervices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal G o v e rn m e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... State and local governm ent 100.0 62.1 16.8 15.5 9.8 5.8 1.3 .7 4.5 3.8 100.0 64.1 13.3 13.7 9.0 4.6 - .2 .5 4.8 4.3 100.0 64 .0 15.0 14.2 9.0 5.2 .9 .1 4.7 4.6 10 0.0 63.6 14.5 13.6 9.1 4.5 .9 1.0 5.5 4.5 100.0 63.9 15.5 14.2 10.4 3.9 1.3 20.3 11.7 8.7 21.9 12.0 10.0 20.9 11.1 9.8 20.9 10.9 10.0 5.7 4.7 100.0 63.4 14.4 13.6 10.3 3.3 .8 .2 6.1 5.9 100.0 65.4 13.8 13.4 10.3 3.1 .5 .3 6.8 6.5 100.0 65 .9 14.3 13.7 9.8 3.9 .6 .1 6.7 6.6 10 0.0 65.9 15.1 14.6 10.2 4.4 .5 -.2 6.7 6.9 100.0 65.1 15.7 14.8 11.5 3.3 .9 .5 8.5 8.0 100.0 65.3 15.5 14.8 11.5 3.4 .7 .5 9.2 8.7 19.6 9.4 10.2 22 .0 11.1 10.8 2 0 .4 8.9 11.4 19.7 8.2 11.4 19.2 7.7 11.5 18.7 6.5 12.1 18.6 6.2 12.4 1.0 Average annual rates of change 2 Projected 1955-68 Gross national p ro d u c t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal consum ption ex p e n d itu re s . Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t... Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n re s id e n tia.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R esidential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Change in business in v e n to rie s ... N et exports of goods and services ... E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Governm ent purchases of goods i and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal G o v e rn m en.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and local g overnm ent ...... 1965-72 1972-80 3.8 4.0 2.6 2.7 4.2 - .6 .0 -7 . 1 6.2 7.4 3.6 4.0 3.2 4.0 3.4 5.5 -9 .3 4.7 4.6 5.2 4.9 6.3 1.1 12.5 ( 3) ( 3) 6.0 9.3 7.9 6.7 4.4 3.4 5.6 3.3 .7 5.4 4.4 2.5 5.5 1968-85 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.4 10.6 6.4 o 6.3 2.8 .3 4.7 1968-80 1980-85 4.1 4.3 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.2 5.2 14.0 7.0 6.7 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.5 -.8 2.6 4.9 5.1 2.7 -.4 5.1 3.2 2.1 3.8 1 These num bers d iffe r from th e current-dollar num bers because these SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau o are from the 1963 inpu t-output accounts and thus include rebenchm arking. Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2 Compound interest rates between term in al years. projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics: 3 N et exports were negative in 1972. 41 jectedto continue, resulting in a slower rate of increase for the PCE deflator than for the overall GNP deflator. For this reason, the current-dollar values of PCE (in appendix table B-3) represent a smaller share and exhibit less growth, relative to GNP, than the constant-dollar figures just discussed. grows faster than GNP over the 1968 to 1985 period as a whole, its sensitivity to economic growth is reflected in the fact that from 1980 to 1985, when GNP growth slows down, investment growth declines sharply to 3.2 percent a year or slightly less than the GNP growth rate for the period. Real investment in residential structures is projected to grow at 4.2 percent annually from 1968 to 1980 and at 3.5 percent after 1980. Several factors are involved in this projected slowing in 1980-85. The effect of the decrease in the GNP growth from 1980 to 1985 is reinforced by a decrease in the rate of new family formation as the recent decrease in birth rates is translated into lower population growth in the primary family formation age group during the 1980’s, especially when compared to the 1968-80 rate of family formation. In addition, the effects of the housing goals program have been incorporated into the projections through the late 1970’s. It is assumed that the end of this program will be accompanied by some slowdown in the rate of expansion in residential investment. The fourth category of GPDI, change in business inventories, is a small share of the total and is a cyclical variable. With the assumption of a rapidly growing stable economy through 1980, the change in busi ness inventories is projected to grow} at a rate of 5.2 percent from 1968 to 1980. As the GNP growth rate slows after 1980, change in business inventories declines in constant dollars. Gross private domestic investment. Gross private domestic investment (GPDI) con sists of purchases of capital resources which will be productive of goods and services in the future. Gross private domestic invest ment is projected separately in the macroeconometric model for four categories of expenditures. These categories are (1) non reside ntial structures, (2) producers’ dura ble equipment, (3) residential structures, and (4) change in business inventories. For the historical years shown in table 18, an average of 14.7 percent of the GNP was devoted to new capital formation, re placement of existing capital, and residen tial construction. The share of GPDI in the GNP varies between a high of 16.8 percent in 1955 and a low of 13.3 percent in 1958, exhibiting sensitivity to changing economic conditions. The projected level of GPDI in 1985 is $224.2 billion (in 1963 dollars), 15.5 percent of GNP. The projected growth rate of GPDI is 4.4 percent annually from 1972 to 1985, well above the 1965 to 1972 rate of 3.2 percent. In evaluating invest ment as an economic phenomenon however, it is more meaningful to break it into nonresidential investment, residential invest ment, and business inventories. When this is done, the declining share of total invest ment can be seen as attributable to the slow growth in residential structures during 1955-68. Nonresidential investment has in creased faster than GNP, and, as a conse quence, it has increased its share of GNP. In the 1968-80 period it is projected to grow at 5.0 percent a year—appreciably faster than the GNP growth of 4.1 percent over the same period (both in 1963 dollars). Several factors influence the rapid growth, one being the appreciable acceleration in the rate of increase of business savings. Additionally, requirements for pollution con trol raise the projected needs for invest ment. Although nonresidential investment The current-dollar investment projec tions (appendix table B-3) behav^ very much like the constant-dollar projections relative to GNP and in their growth pat terns. This is because the rates of price increase for investment goods and over all GNP have been quite similar and are projected to continue growing at nearly the same rates. The deflator for residential investment is projected to grow more rapid ly than the nonresidential deflator, however, as it has in the past. Therefore, the cur rent-dollar share of residential investment in total investment is slightly higher than the corresponding share in 1963 dollars. 42 Net exports of goods and services. Net ex ports of goods and services is exogenous to the macromodel used in developing these projections. Therefore, the levels of imports and exports shown in table 18 were not derived from this model, as were the other components of demand GNP. The level of 1985 net exports in 1963 dollars is pro jected to be $7.2 billion or 0.5 percent of GNP. The projection assumes a recovery from the negative net exports of 1972. Both imports and exports have been growing faster than GNP historically; this continues in the projected period. By 1985, imports are projected to reach $125.9 billion (in 1963 dollars) representing 8.7 percent of GNP. The comparable ratios of imports to GNP in 1955 and 1972 were 3.8 and 6.9 percent, respectively. Exports are projected to reach $133.0 billion (in 1963 dollars) by 1985. The relative growth rates of imports and exports are of primary importance since only the net exports figure enters into the GNP estimate. The strong growth in the domestic economy projected through 1980 is accompanied by an improvement in the net export position. From 1968 to 1980, the average annual rate of increase for exports is projected to be 7.0 percent a year, compared to the rate for imports of 6.7 percent. Although net exports increase slightly between 1980 and 1985, the pro jected growth rate of imports during that period is slightly above the export rate.3 3 billion (in 1963 dollars) by 1985, an in crease of $105.3 billion over their 1972 level. As a share of GNP, they are pro jected to be 18.6 percent in 1985, slightly below the 19.2 percent share in 1972 and well below the 1968 share of 22.0 percent. In general, the growth of the government portion of demand GNP is projected to slow down, but the trends and projections are best discussed separately for Federal Gov ernment and State and local governments (table 18). Federal purchases of goods and services are dominated by national defense, which accounted for 71 percent of the total in 1972. The growth rates for defense and therefore total Federal purchases are very irregular. This is largely due to the use of 1968 as a reference base — a year of high defense purchases to support the Vietnam war. Thus, the 1955-68 growth rate in Federal purchases of 3.4 percent is unreal istically high, and the projected change for 1972-80 of 2.5 percent a year, slowing to 2.1 percent a year in 1980-85, is probably more representative. This projection of slow er growth than in 1955-68 assumes that there will be no major war. Because of the Vietnam conflict and the no-war assump tion, it is best to use 1972 as a basis for describing trends in Federal purchases. An additional factor in the projected slowing of Federal purchases is that the space pro gram, which grew rapidly until the late 1960’s, is not expected to add any impetus Government purchases of goods and ser vices. The portion of government expendi ture which enters directly into demand GNP is called purchases of goods and services.3 4 In tdtal, government purchases of goods and services are projected to reach $268.2 34 Such expenditures as current outlays of govern ment enterprises, transfer payments, interest payments, subsidies, and land aquisition are excluded from the government purchases account. Government purchases are shown in table 18 separately for Federal Government and State and local governments. If expenditures were used instead of purchases as the measure of government demand in the demand GNP account, it would result in a double counting problem. For example, grants-in-aid would appear both in Federal expenditures and in State and local expenditures. In many cases, such as welfare grants, the expenditures would be counted a third time when spent by their private sector recipients. For the Federal Government, the share of nonpurchases in total expenditures is much higher than for State and local governments. In 1972, the nonpurchases share was 57 percent for the Federal Government, but only 8.2 per cent for State and local. Because of these differences, purchases alone are not an accurate vehicle for compar ing Federal with State and local government expenditures. 33 In current dollars net exports are projected to reach $9.7 billion in 1985, 0.33 percent of current-dollar GNP (appendix table B-3). The share is smaller than the 1963-dollar share because the price deflator for net ex ports rises less rapidly than the GNP deflator. Projected imports in current dollars have a greater growth relative to exports than in 1963 dollars because the import deflator rose faster between 1968 and 1972 than the export deflator. After 1972, the export and import defla tors in these projections are assumed to rise at the same rate. 43 slow during the projected period relative to the past growth of 5.6 percent a year dur ing 1955-68, but they still are projected to increase faster than GNP. Increasing at an annual rate of 5.1 percent between 1968 and 1980, State and local purchases reach $149.1 billion in 1980 and further increase to $179.3 billion by 1985 (1963 dollars). The continued increase of State and local purchases is influenced by both the rapid growth of the general economy from 1968 to 1980 and the continued increase in Fed eral aid to these governments. The increase is projected to be less rapid than in the past because of the slower growth expected in public school enrollment and a diminished rate of growth of Federal grants-in-aid. After 1980, the growth of State and local pur chases is expected to taper off even further to an annual rate of 3.8 percent. This slow down is primarily related to decreased growth rates of population and income, which influence State and local governments through their tax base and the require ments for their services. In addition, it has been assumed that Federal grants-in-aid will increase even less rapidly after 1980 than in the 1972 to 1980 period. to Federal expenditures over the 1972-85 period. The overall Federal purchases projection in current dollars results in a decrease in this share of GNP. The 5.9-percent rate of increase projected for 1972 to 1985 is well below the GNP growth rate of 7.4 percent and also below the growth rate of Federal purchases from 1965 to 1972 of 6.6percent. The explanation lies in the compensation deflator, that is, the rate of increase in gov ernment wages (and prices of government product as used in the national income accounts) is not expected to be as rapid in the future as during 1965-72, when Federal employees were receiving extra pay raises to achieve comparability with the private economy. State and local government purchases of goods and services have been character ized by very rapid and steady growth since the early 1950’s. They have increased as a share of real GNP from 8.7 percent in 1955 to 11.5 percent in 1972.3 The real growth 5 of State and local purchases is expected to 35 In current dollars the increase was even greater, 7.6 to 13.0 percent. (See appendix table B -3.) 44 Chapter 3. The Structure of Demand In chapter 2 the derivation of the major components of demand was described. In that chapter, however, the treatment was in terms of the sources and uses of funds, that is, income (originating as a part of the production process) and demand for goods and services (reflecting the concomitant disposition of those funds). In the previous chapter, the changes (as well as inter actions) among the conventional categories of demand — consumption, investment, gov ernment, and transactions with the rest of the world were traced, with the dollar flows of income and demand stated initially in the price levels of the period they repre sent, or current dollars, and subsequently in 1963 dollars, or in real terms. The focus of this chapter is the changing structure of real demand among the major categories, that is, consumption, invest ment, etc., and also the changing composi tion of demand within each of the major demand categories such as durable or non durable consumer commodities. This de tailed analysis of the industrial structure of demand provides the link to the input-output system discussed in chapter 4 and the re sulting industrial distribution of output and employment in chapter 5. GNP growth path, particularly over the longer run. This close relationship to GNP is an important factor, particularly during the projected slowdown in GNP growth in the 1980-85 period. Growth in total consumer expenditures. The growth of PCE was faster on average dur ing the 1960’s, at 4.5 percent a year, than during the 1950’s (3.5 percent). Ovei the 1955-68 period the growth was 4.0 percent (table 19). The projected growth in con sumer expenditures for 1968-80 suggests a pattern closer to that of the 1960’s — increasing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent a year. Since PCE did not grow as rapidly between 1968 and 1972, a 4.6 percent annual growth rate from 1972 is implied to reach the 1980 projected level of consumer expenditures. After 1980, the slowdown in the growth of GNP is accompanied by a corresponding deceleration of the growth of PCE to an average rate of 3.3 percent annually, or a rate closer to the pattern in the 1950’s. Part of the growth in PCE is due to an increase in population, i.e. in the number of consumers. However, most of the growth is due to an increase in consumption per indivi dual. Between 1955 and 1968, PCE per capita grew at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent or from a level of $1,755 to $2,401 per capita (in 1963 dollars). By 1980 the projections show $3,569 per capita consumption and by 1985, $427 above that level, or $3,996 per capita. Since these figures are adjusted for price change, they suggest how much our standard of living has increased and is expected to continue to improve. The trend in terms of the number of households is somewhat different because the growth in households lags significantly Personal consumption expenditures As the largest component of demand GNP, consumer expenditures during the postwar period have varied as a proportion of GNP from 60 to 66 percent (measured in 1963 dollars). The projections of PCE for 1980 and 1985 fall into this range (65.1 percent of GNP in 1980 and 65.3 percent in 1985). In general, because of the size of PCE, the growth pattern follows closely the 45 Table 19. Personal consumption expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Projected Component 1955 1958 1959 1960 1963 1965 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 Billions of 1963 dollars Personal consum ption ex p e n d itu re s .... . Durable goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Autos and p a rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F u rn itu re an d household eq u ip m e n t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther durable go o d .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Food and beverages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Clothing and s h o e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gasoline and o i.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other nondurable go o d s. . . . . . . . . . . S e rv ic e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H ousing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Household operation s e rv ic e.s. . ........... Tran sportation servic es O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2 9 1 .2 42 .8 22.2 16.2 4.4 136.2 74.9 24 .3 10.1 26 .9 112.2 38 .3 16.7 10.9 46 .3 1 $ 3 0 7 .3 $ 3 2 6 .2 $ 3 3 5 .7 $ 3 75 .5 $ 4 2 3 .2 $ 4 8 1 .8 $ 4 9 9 .3 $5 08 .0 $ 5 2 7 .6 $ 5 5 9 .6 $ 7 9 9 9 ($ 9 4 1 .9 52.9 84.1 37.0 43 .0 44 .2 9 1 .0 102.7 14 6.0 170.1 82.4 65.7 79 9 20 .9 25.3 43 .5 16.1 19.9 40.4 49 .5 38.4 36.2 32.0 70 .2 80 .3 16.1 4.9 144.5 78.7 24.9 11.5 29.5 125.7 44 .0 19.0 11.3 51.5 17.6 5.4 151.7 82.1 26.4 12.0 31.2 131.5 46 .0 19.8 11.8 53.8 17.6 5.7 154.6 83.3 26 .9 12.4 32 .0 136.9 48.1 20.7 12.3 55.8 20.9 6.7 167.9 87.9 29.5 13.7 36.8 154.7 55.6 23.4 12.7 63.1 25.6 8.1 185.5 95.4 33.9 15.2 40.9 172.0 62.5 25.6 13.5 70.5 31.0 10.5 205.1 102.5 38.4 17.7 46.4 196.8 71.7 29 .6 15.2 80.3 32.6 11.1 20 9 .8 102.9 39.4 18.8 48 .6 205.4 75.3 31.3 15.5 83.3 34 .6 11.5 21 4.7 104.7 39 .8 19.8 50.4 2 1 0.9 78.3 32.9 15.4 84.3 36 .0 11.6 2 1 9 .6 107.1 41 .3 20 .6 50 .6 2 1 7 .0 8 0 .8 33.7 15.9 86 .5 40 .7 12.6 2 2 9 .4 10 9.3 44.1 22 .2 5 3 .8 2 2 7.4 83 .6 35 .6 16.6 91 .6 55 .8 65 6 19.9 24 .2 3 1 6 .8 3 6 4 .0 14 5.8 16 4.2 57.1 6 2 .8 3 3 .0 40 .9 8 0 .8 96.1 3 3 7 .2 4 0 7 .7 12 4.5 153.4 52 .3 6 3 .8 23 .2 26 .5 137.1 164.1 Percent distribution Personal consum ption e x p e n d itu re s .... Durable goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Autos and p a rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Furniture and household eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther durable goo d .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Food and beverages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Clothing and s h o es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gasoline and o il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther nondurable g o o d .s......... S e rv ic e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Housing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Household operation s e rv ic e... s Tran sportation services.......... . . Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 14.7 7.6 100.0 12.0 5.2 100.0 13.2 6.1 100.0 13.2 6.2 100.0 14.1 6.7 100.0 15.5 7.6 100.0 16.6 8.0 100.0 16.8 8.1 100.0 16.2 7.1 10 0.0 17.2 8.2 10 0.0 18.4 8.8 10 0.0 18.2 8.8 10 0 .0 18.0 8.5 5.5 1.5 46 .8 25.7 8.3 3.5 9.2 38.5 13.1 5.7 3.7 15.9 5.2 1.6 47 .0 25.6 8.1 3.7 9.6 40 .9 14.3 6.2 3.7 16.7 5.4 1.7 46 .5 25.2 8.1 3.7 9.5 40 .3 14.1 6.1 3.6 16.5 5.2 1.7 46.1 24 .8 8.0 3.7 9.5 40 .8 14.3 6.2 3.7 16.6 5.6 1.8 44.7 23.4 7.9 3.6 9.8 41.2 14.8 6.2 3.4 16.8 6.0 1.9 43.8 22.5 8.0 3.6 9.7 40.6 14.8 6.0 3.2 16.6 6.4 2.2 42 .6 21 .3 8.0 3.7 9.6 40 .8 14.9 6.1 3.1 16.7 6.5 2.2 42.0 20 .6 7.9 3.8 9.7 41.1 15.3 6.4 3.1 16.7 6.8 2.3 42 .3 20.6 7.8 3.9 9.9 41.5 15.4 6.5 3.0 16.6 6.8 2.2 4 1 .6 20 .3 7.8 3.9 9.6 41.1 15.3 6.4 3.0 16.4 7.3 2.2 4 1 .0 19.5 7 9 4 0 9.6 4 0 .6 14.9 6 4 3.0 16.4 70 2.5 39 6 182 7 1 4 1 10.1 42.1 15.6 6 5 2.9 17.1 7.0 2.6 38 .6 17.4 6.7 4.3 10.2 43 .3 16.3 6 8 2.8 17.4 L___ Average annual rates of change Projected 1951-59 Personal consum ption e x p e n d itu re s .... Durable goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Autos and p a rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Furniture and household eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other durable g o o d .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Food and beverages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Clothing and s h o e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gasoline and o il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther nondurable g o o d s. . . . . . . . . . . S e rv ic e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Housing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Household operation s e rv ic e... s Tran sportation services ........... Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 9 55 -68 1 9 60 -69 1965-72 1968-72 1972-80 19 68 -85 19 68 -80 19 80 -85 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.0 4.9 4.3 4.5 7.4 7.6 4.0 6.6 6.4 3.8 6.5 6.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.3 5.2 5.2 3.3 3.1 2.7 3.3 5.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 5.9 3.1 4.0 5.1 4.6 1.2 3.5 5.1 6.9 3.2 2.4 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.9 4.5 2.6 4.3 7.1 7.7 3.5 2.4 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.6 5.1 4.7 2.6 4.6 6.8 6.5 3.1 2.0 3.8 5.6 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.8 3.0 3.8 7.0 4.7 2.8 1.6 3.5 5.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.7 2.2 3.3 4.0 5.9 4.1 3.7 3.3 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.3 5.2 4.5 5.0 3.4 28 2.9 5.0 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.6 3.3 4.3 5.0 5.5 3.7 3.0 3.4 5.3 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.9 3.6 4.6 3.3 4 .0 2.8 2.4 1.9 4.4 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.1 2.7 3.7 ' Compound interest rates between te rm in a l years. SOURCE: Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; Historical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics. 46 product or service to total PCE and relative prices, using appropriate lags for these variables. Each equation projects expendi tures for a product annually in per capita terms.3 All projections are made in con 8 stant dollars, that is, in real terms.3 In 9 this model, the projected movement over time of expenditures for a product depends on the past behavior that was captured in the equation and the assumed changes and levels of the independent variables. Each product reacts differently to the variables. Of particular importance is the slowdown of the expansion of PCE. Several products are very sensitive to changes in total PCE while others show a more stable trend in that they are not nearly as sensitive to sharp changes in income growth. behind population growth.3 The 1955-68 6 growth rate of households was about 1.8 percent a year. This period had a corre sponding 2.1-percent growth of consumption per household. From 1968 to 1980, the growth of average consumption per house hold is projected at a slightly faster rate, 2.5 percent a year, though the number of households continues to increase at the 1955-68 rate. Household formation slows slightly in the 1980-85 period to an annual rate of 1.7 percent while the marked slow down in the expansion of PCE results in a 1.6-percent growth rate for personal con sumption expenditures per household. Distribution of consumer expenditures. The projection of the level of personal consump tion expenditures as described in chapter 2 is based on a macromodel. The task de scribed in this chapter is the projection of the distribution of consumer demand into what is called an input-output bill of goods. This is done in two steps. First, total PCE is distributed among types of products the consumer will purchase, such as transporta tion. Then the products are traced to their producing industry in the input-output sys tem, for example, the amount of purchased transportation produced by airlines, buses, or taxis. Two procedures are involved and will be discussed separately below. Hendrick S. Houthakker and Lester D. Taylor3 developed a system of dynamic 7 equations to project 82 consumption cate gories in the national income accounts as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U. S. Department of Commerce. Two structural behavioral models were consid ered in the Houthakker-Taylor research, one based on stock-level adjustment or habit formation and the other describing consumer attempts to attain a level of con sumption. Projected levels of a given consumer good or service are determined in general by relating expenditures for this Durable consumer goods. Of the three ma jor components of PCE, the durable goods category has been the most sensitive to changes in economic conditions. Although the smallest component, it has experienced, in general, the most rapid longrun growth, increasing its share of PCE from 12.5 per cent in 1951 to 18.4 percent in 1972. How ever, expenditures on durable consumer goods have also demonstrated the most pronounced variation in growth. Therefore, it is very important to examine the whole time path in comparing growth rates. For example, 1955 was a remarkably good year for durables; 1958, a recession year, was one of the worst, actually below the 1955 level. The 1955-68 growth rate in spending on consumer durables was 4.9 percent annually (table 19). On the other hand, from 1958 to 1968 durables grew at an annual rate of 7.9 percent. While PCE was experiencing a slower growth in the 1950’s, durable goods averaged a 1.2-percent increase for every 1-percent growth in PCE. In the 1960’s when PCE experienced a more rapid growth, averaging an increase of 4.5 percent annual ly, durables increased 1.6 percent for every OQ 36Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1 9 7 2 ( Bu reau of the Census), table 50, p. 39, "Households, Fami lies, Subfamilies, Married Couples, and Unrelated Individuals: 1950 to 1 9 71 .” 37H. S. Houthakker and L. D. Taylor, Consumer Demand in the United States: Analyses and Projections (Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1970.) Working with consumption per capita avoids any implicit assumption about population growth. 39This research on the consumption model was origi nally in 1958 dollars. However, in these projections the 1958 constant-dollar figures have been converted to 1963 dollars to be consistent with the input-output table used. 47 percentage point increase in PCE. The projections of consumer durables show reactions to changing growth patterns in PCE.4 Although the projected rate of 0 expenditures for durables for the entire period 1968-85 continues to be greater than that of the total PCE, the slower overall growth in the economy projected during the 1980’s causes a response in which durables grow at a rate of 3.1 percent from 1980 to 1985 while PCE is projected to increase at an average of 3.3 percent. Therefore, the proportion of PCE going to durables falls slightly after 1980, to 18.0 percent in 1985. The more rapid growth of durables between 1968 and 1972 relative to PCE results in a slower growth rate between 1972 and 1980, although the 1968-80 growth rate for dura bles, at 5.2 percent, is significantly above that for total consumer expenditures. Durable goods make up 11 of the approxi mately 80 PCE categories projected. The dominant product in both magnitude (about 40 percent of expenditures for durables) and effect on the behavior of the major component is new cars and net purchases of used cars (VIII. l.a). 4 A very volatile 1 item, it includes, in addition to domestic new cars, imported new cars, margins on used cars, recreational vehicles and trail ers, mobile homes, and value to scrap dealers of junked cars. Each of the compo nents of the automobile category has a different rate of growth. Recently, foreign new cars and mobile homes and recrea tional vehicles have grown much more rapid ly than the total of consumer purchases of motor vehicles. For instance, between 1955 and 1968 expenditures for mobile homes grew at an annual rate of over 14 percent a year. Between 1968 and 1972, they grew at a rate of over 20 percent a year. The growth of purchases of imported cars has been equally rapid (table 20). Table 20. Consumer purchases of automobiles and mobile homes, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 (Based on data in 1963 dollars, purchaser prices) Percent distribution 1955 1958 1965 1968 1972 19 80 1985 T o ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10 0 .0 10 0.0 Dom estic new c a r s .... 90.7 Im ported c a rs . . . . . . . . . .6 Mobile homes and recreational vehicles... 2.2 Other 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 80.5 4.9 86.0 3.8 82.1 6.6 73 .4 9.6 69 .5 12.3 68 .9 14.2 4.4 10.2 5.2 5.1 8.1 3.2 13.8 3.2 11.7 6.5 12.1 4.8 Average annual rates of change 2 Projected 1955-68 1958-68 19 68 -72 19 68 -80 1 9 72 -80 1980-85 3.9 9.3 6.2 4.9 4.3 2.5 Dom estic new c a r s .... 3.1 24.2 Im ported cars . . . . . . . . . Mobile homes and recreational vehicles... 14.7 9.5 12.5 3.2 16.6 3.5 11.6 3.6 9.1 2.3 3.0 16.1 21.5 8.2 2.2 3.1 T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ’ 1 Includes used car margins and inventory change ad justm ent. 2 Compound in te re s t rates between term in al years. SOURCE: H istorical data based on data from U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau o f Labor S tatistics. Because the recession of 1958 had a significant dampening effect on consumer purchases of automobiles (entire category VIII. l.a) in the 1950’s, expenditures for autos during this decade appear to have a much slower rate of growth than in the 1960’ s. By observing the annual trend in consumer purchases of autos it can be seen that there were only 3 years during the 1960’ s in which auto expenditures were less than the previous year, while during the previous decade five such turndowns occurred.4 The 1951-59 rate of growth in 2 auto purchases was 4.5 percent but between 1960 and 1969 the growth rate averaged 7.6 percent. The projection from 1968 to 1980 falls between the two, at 4.9 percent a year, but from 1972 the rate of growth is only 4.3 percent due to the remarkable expansion in auto purchases in 1971 and 40Durable consumer goods are not projected in total but represent the summation of projections for different products within the Houthakker-Taylor system. 4’ The number in parentheses refers to the catego ries in table 2.5 in the July 1973 issue of the Survey of Current Business published by the Department of Com merce. Table A -l in appendix A of this bulletin repro duces this listing for the reader’s convenience. Any number of this nature refers to this table. Projected Category 42See July 1972 and earlier July issues of Survey of Current Business. 48 Table 21. Changes in consumer purchases of selected durable goods, selected periods, actual and projected, 1951-85 (Based on data in 1963 dollars, purchaser prices) Average annual rates of change Projected Category 1951-63 1955-65 19 59 -68 19 63 -68 1968-72 19 72 -80 1968-85 1968-80 1 9 80 -85 5.6 3.5 2.8 6.1 3.2 5.5 8.0 3.5 6.8 10.3 5.0 7.5 1.8 2.7 6.8 4.5 5.3 4.7 3.4 3.8 4.6 3.3 4.4 5.4 3.6 2.4 2.9 Ophthalm ic products and orthopedic a p p lia n c e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 5.5 7.4 9.6 -3 .0 5.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 l.b Tires, tubes, accessories and parts ....... 5.7 7.4 6.8 8.6 9.1 5.9 6.1 6.9 4.6 Wheel goods, durable toys, sport equipm ent, e tc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 6.8 7.1 9.2 11.2 7.1 7.3 8.4 4.6 Radio and TV receivers, records, and musical ins tru m en ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 7.3 11.0 13.3 9.6 4.8 5.7 6.4 4.0 - - - - - - - - -\ * II. 7 Jewelry and w a tc h e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . V. 1 F u rn itu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. V. 4 Other durable house furnishings ............ VI V III 2 IX. 4 IX 5 1 Compound interest rates between term in al years. SOURCE. Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by NOTE: Category numbers refer to classification system shown in ap p en Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics. dix table A -l. 1972. Between 1980 and 1985 the rate is projected to be slower, at 2.5 percent. The projections take into account the effects on auto purchases of pollution abatement equipment and its short-term effect of damp ening buyer interest in cars, continuing urban congestion which may slow buyer en thusiasm for more cars, and a continuing trend toward smaller cars, which in dollar terms translates into less dollars of auto purchase. Several other durable consumer goods show higher growth rates than the average for personal consumption expenditures. These are furniture and household equip ment and include household furniture (V. 1), other durable house furnishings (V.4), and radio and television receivers, records, and musical instruments (IX. 5). These three product groups compose about one-fifth of consumer durables. All three increase their share of PCE rapidly until 1980 and lose momentum quickly in the 1980’s. The high growth rate for furniture until 1980 corre sponds to the growth rate for housing. Most products in durable goods have a relatively high growth rate, consistent with past trends. Wheel goods, durable toys, sport equipment, boats and pleasure air craft (IX.4), and tires, tubes, accessories, and parts (VIII. l.b) grow at rates signifi cantly faster than the average for personal consumption expenditures and maintain strong growth after 1980, 7.3 percent for category IX.4 and 6.1 percent for VIII. l.b between 1968 and 1985 (table 21). On the other hand, ophthalmic and orthopedic pro ducts (VI.2) and jewelry and watches (II.7) though experiencing fairly consistent growth in the 1960’s, demonstrated a defi nite slowing in the rate of growth in the latter part of the decade. In the projected period 1972-85 expenditures for these pro ducts will be growing at a pace below their long-term historical rates. Nondurable goods. Unlike expenditures for durable goods, nondurable expenditures have consistently grown more slowly than total consumer expenditures. This is as expected because many nondurable goods are considered necessities and their pur chase is generally not influenced much by 49 Table 22. Food consumption per capita, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 1963 dollars, purchaser prices Projected Category 1968 1972 1 9 80 1 9 85 1955 1.1 1.2 1.3 Food o ff prem ise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Food on prem ise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Food furnished government and com m ercial em ployees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Food produced and consumed on fa r m. s. . . . . . 1959 1965 $3 2 3 112 $340 109 $366 112 $3 77 120 $387 128 $473 166 $508 179 8 10 7 7 7 4 8 3 7 3 9 2 9 2 Average annual rates of change 1 Projected 19 55 -68 1.1 1.2 Food o ff prem ise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Food on prem ise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1959-68 1968-72 19 68 -80 1 9 72 -80 1.2 .5 1.2 1.1 .7 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.5 3.3 19 80 -85 1.4 1.5 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCES: ( 1 ) Food consum ption: Historical data from U.S. D e p a rt NOTE: Population estim ates for calculating per capita consum ption are ment of Com m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 19 63 dollars for July 1 of each year. Category numbers refer to classification system by Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics . ( 2 ) Population: Bureau of th e Census; projections are series E. shown in appendix table A -l. changes in income.4 A consequence of the 3 slower growth is that nondurable goods have been a continually smaller proportion of PCE over time. In 1955, 46.8 percent of consumers’ purchases were nondurables while by 1972 only 41.0 percent of PCE consisted of nondurables. This slower growth relative to PCE is projected to continue so that in 1985 the percentage taken by non durables is expected to decline to 38.6 (table 19). / About half of the expenditures for con sumer nondurable goods are for food and beverages. Food and beverage purchases have been growing at rates much slower than PCE and for most years less rapidly than other nondurables purchases. Food purchased for off-premise consumption ( 1.1), that is, food eaten at home, is projected to expand at a rate of 2.5 percent in real terms to 1980, reaching a per capita rate of $473 from $387 in 1972. This compares to a growth of 1.2 percent a year from 1955 to 1968. The faster growth reflects the projected faster growth in income dur ing the 1970’s. This growth is expected to slow over the 1980-85 period. Restaurants (1.2) are projected to expand rapidly in the 1970’s but during the 1980’s are projected to return to the 1959-68 growth trend (table 22). The trend in expenditures for gasoline and oil (VIII. l.d) is not characteristic of nondurables in general; these commodities have shown a rapid growth rate in the past (table 19). This trend is projected to conti nue. The projected increase of 5.1 percent annually from 1972 to 1980 is based on increased usage of auto transportation and higher real costs per mile of driving caused by more elaborate equipment on cars, espe cially for pollution abatement. The projec tion does not hypothesize any constraint in the supply of gasoline such as was experi enced in early 1974. "Other nondurable goods” (table 19) is an aggregate of 12 products, including a wide variety of goods such as toilet articles, stationery, flowers, and coal. This compo nent accelerated from a growth rate of approximately 3 percent a year in the 1950’s, below the rate for PCE, to an aver age of 4.8 percent in the 1960’ s; this is pro jected to slow down to 3.5 percent in the 1980-85 period, still above the rate of growth of PCE. *3 It should be noted, however, that two items, pur chased meals, i.e., restaurant meals (1.2), and clothing and luggage (II.3 ) are among the more income-elastic consumer expenditures. 50 cent for the 1980’s. Household operation services consists of six categories. The growth rates for the 1950’s and 1960’ s as well as for the pro jection period 1968-85 is 4.6 percent a year, though the 1980-85 period is expected to show a slightly slower growth rate than this long-term trend. Telephone and tele graph service (V.9) is projected to grow the fastest in the household operation cate gory, averaging 7.5 percent a year between 1968 and 1980 and 5.9 percent thereafter (table 23). Telephone service is one of the fastest growing consumption categories. Domestic service (V. 10) is projected to continue to decline in real terms as this work appeals to fewer and fewer workers. The electricity (V.8.a) projection explicitly assumes a higher relative price, a depar ture from past trends, and accounts for the somewhat slower rate projected for 196880, while the 1980-85 slowdown reflects the slower growth in income in this period. Attempts to include a price variable in the household gas (V.8.b) equation were not successful. The new equation does include more recent data but does not represent any effects of constraints in supply. In the past the category of transporta tion services has demonstrated consum ers’ attachment to the automobile and to their independence and comfort. Trains, buses, and cabs have suffered a deteriora ting market. In the projection, some of these trends have been modified and others reversed in the belief that, as congestion and pollution become more severe, consum- Services. The growth pattern of ser vices appears to have been more stable in the last two decades than that of the other components of consumer expendi tures. Between 1951 and 1963 services grew at an average rate of about 4 percent a year. Total consumer expenditures were increasing more slowly, at 3.5 percent a year, which raised the proportion of consum er expenditures devoted to services from 38.8 percent to 41.2 percent during this period. Between 1963 and 1969, services expanded at a slightly greater rate, 4.5 percent a year. During this same period, durables were expanding even faster while nondurables, although expanding somewhat faster than they had previously, still were not keeping pace with the other two con sumer components. Consequently, services’ share of PCE remained at 41 percent for both years. Between 1968 and 1972, the growth rate slowed, largely as a result of the housing component. In order to maintain the longrun trend, a strong 5 percent growth is projected for 1972 to 1980. The 1980-85 period con tinues the projected growth of services at a faster rate than total PCE. Housing is of particular interest because the four housing categories share a signifi cant part of the total service category. For example, in 1972, housing expenditures were 36.8 percent of total services and have shown a growth of about 5 percent a year during the last two decades. A slight ly slower trend is projected, 4.7 percent a year between 1968 and 1980 and 4.3 per Table 23. Changes in consumer purchases of selected household services, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85 (Based on data in 1963 dollars, purchaser prices) Average annual rates of change 1 Projected Category 19 55 -65 V .8.a V.8.b V .9 V.10 ' E le c tric ity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 5.0 Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7 Telephone and te le g ra.p .h. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Domestic service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - . 7 19 59 -68 19 68 -72 1968-80 19 72 -80 1980-85 6.0 4.2 7.7 -1 .6 6.3 2.7 7.0 -3 .3 5.4 3.7 7.5 -2 .1 4.9 4.2 7.8 -1 .5 3.9 3.4 5.9 -2 .9 Compound interest rates between term inal years. NOTE: table A -l. SOURCE: Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by Bureau Category num bers refer to classification system shown in appendix of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. 51 Table 24. Consumer purchases of selected transportation services, selected years 1955-1972 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Millions of 1 9 63 dollars, purchaser prices Projected Category 1955 V lll.2 .b V III .2 .c V III .3 .a V III .3 .b V III.3 .C V III .l.c V II I . l . e V III.l.f Ta xica b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$ 68 3 Railway (c o m m u ta tio. .n. ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Railway ( in te r c ity ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3 0 In te rc ity b us. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 342 A irlin.e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 4 Autom o bile repair, greasing, washing, parking, storage, re n ta. .l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,186 Bridge, tunnel, ferry, and road to lls . . . . . . . . . 176 A utom o bile insurance prem ium s less claim s p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,570 1959 $ 682 143 319 274 69 0 1965 $ 1968 1972 $ 557 129 100 241 2,66b 1980 1985 575 130 243 303 1,260 $ 582 137 165 289 2,112 6 ,1 6 3 300 7,107 444 7,5 7 8 519 8,473 630 11,24 6 939 1 2 ,48 9 1,189 1,762 2,0 4 8 2,5 2 0 2,814 3,247 3,5 8 4 $ 596 152 388 323 5,157 $ 601 163 456 342 6 ,6 9 3 Average annual rates of change 1 Projected 1955-65 V III .2 .b V III.2 .c V III.3 .a V III .3 .b V III.3 .c V II I . l . c V II I . l . e V III.l.f Ta xica b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- 1.8 Railway (c o m m u ta tio n ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 1.6 Railway (in te r c ity ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 5.6 In te rc ity b u s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- 1.2 A irlin.e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 . Autom o bile repair, greasing, washing, 3.2 parking, storage, r e n ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 Bridge, tunne l, ferry, and road to.lls. . . . . . .. Autom o bile insurance prem ium s less 2.7 claim s p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1959-68 19 68 -72 19 68 -80 19 7 2 -8 0 19 80 -85 - 1.7 -.5 -7 .1 .6 13.2 - 1.1 -1 .5 -1 2 .0 - 4.5 5.9 0..2 .9 7.4 .9 7.7 0 .9 2.1 18.5 3.7 8.6 0.2 1.4 3.3 1.1 5.4 2.3 6.3 2.8 5.0 3.3 5.1 3.6 5.1 2.1 4.8 4.1 2.8 2.1 1.8 2.0 ' C om P ° und Interest rates between term inal * earsSOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D epa rtm ent of Comm e NOTE: Category num bers refer to classification shown in appendix of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor S t table A -l. tics; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics. ers will venture back to mass transporta A slight rise in intercity bus travel (VIII. tion. The 1968-80 growth rate of the entire 3.b) is projected, though a rate lower than transportation category is projected at 3.6 the rate of growth of population. Airline travel (VIII.3.c), on the other hand, will percent a year. Purchased local transportation declined show a substantial increase, at a rate of from $2.8 billion in 1951 to $1.5 billion in 7.7 percent a year from 1968 to 1980 and 1969. Taxicab use (VIII.2.b.) is projected 5.4 percent in the 1980-85 period. However, to level off by 1980 at approximately the this projected growth is slower than the level of the 1960’s and street and electric rate of increase in airline travel in the railway and local buses (VIII.2.a) are pro past; extraordinary growth averaging over jected to slow their decline to that of the 10 percent annually took place in both the 1950’s and the 1960’s. The slowdown in 1960’ s. Intercity railway transportation the rate of growth of airline travel reflects (VIII.3.a) is projected to increase to $456 the maturing of the industry. million in 1985 from $165 million in 1968, "Other services” (table 19) is a mixture although in general this category of trans of 30 separate categories. For the past two portation has declined since 1955 (table 24). Incorporated in these projections is the * decades it has been a fairly constant per cent of PCE (16-17 percent) implying near expectation that the rising costs of other ly the same growth rate as PCE. This is modes of transportation will make railroad expected to continue. Expenditures for motravel more attractive. 52 Table 25. Consumer purchases of selected “ other services," selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 M illions of 1963 dollars, purchaser prices Projected Category 1955 Medical services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$ 1 3 ,2 1 4 4,5 2 9 V I.3 P h y sic ian.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . V I.4 D e n tis ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,839 VI.6 Privately controlled hospitals and s a n ita riu m s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,519 13,54 0 Personal business services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private e d u c a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,155 X .l H ig h e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,259 991 X.2 Elem entary and secondary s c h o o ls . . . . . . . . . 905 X.3 O th e. r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R ec re atio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,910 1,924 IX.8 .a M otion picture th e a te rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1959 1965 1970 1971 1980 1985 $ 1 6 ,2 7 6 5,675 2,0 7 0 $ 2 1 ,6 8 5 7 ,130 2,617 $ 2 4 ,7 4 3 7,815 2 ,795 $ 3 0 ,7 8 4 9,467 2,984 $ 4 9 ,3 5 6 13,903 4 ,8 4 5 $ 6 1 ,5 4 0 1 6 ,5 1 3 5 ,730 5,7 1 0 15,15 7 3,942 1,684 1,290 968 6,251 1,209 8 ,213 2 0 ,4 2 5 5,417 2,431 1,797 1,189 6,9 5 8 826 10,025 2 3 ,7 4 5 6,722 3,085 1,983 1,654 7,420 736 12,95 8 2 6 ,5 0 5 7,209 3,247 2 ,049 1,913 8 ,234 674 2 4 ,51 9 3 9 ,0 4 0 10 ,45 8 4,9 7 9 2,417 3,072 11,519 592 3 2 ,2 0 6 4 6 ,0 3 9 12 ,48 6 5,886 2,6 5 0 3,9 5 0 13,151 521 Average annual rates of change ' Projected 1955-65 5.1 Medical services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 V I.3 P hy sic ian.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . VI.4 D e n tis ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 V I.6 Privately controlled hospitals and s a n ita riu m s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 4.2 Personal business services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private e d u c a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 X .l H ig h e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 6.1 X.2 Elem entary and secondary s c h o o.ls . . . . . . .. X.3 O th e r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8 R e c re a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 -8 . 1 IX .8 a M o tion picture th e a te .rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 59 -68 1968-72 19 68 -80 1972-80 1980-85 4.8 3.6 3.4 5.6 4.9 1.7 5.9 4.9 4.7 6.1 4.9 6.2 4 .5 3.5 3.4 6.5 5.1 6.1 7.0 4.9 6.1 1.9 -5 .4 6.7 2.8 1.8 1.3 .8 3.7 2.6 - 2.2 7.7 4.2 3.8 4.1 1.7 5.3 3.7 - 1.8 8.3 5.0 4.8 5.5 2.1 6.1 4.3 3.3 5.6 3.4 3.6 3.4 1.9 5.2 2.7 - 2.5 1 Compound interest rates between term in al years. SOURCE: H isto rical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau NOTE: Category num bers refer to classification system shown in ap p en of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 19 63 dollars by Bureau of Labor S ta tis tics; projections by Bureau o f Labor Statistics. dix tab le A -l. tion pictures (IX. 8. a) are expected to con tinue to decline as they have in the past (table 25). Medical services will increase in the future, at an average annual rate of 6.1 percent from 1972 to 1980. This is due primarily to the rapid expansion projected in privately controlled hospitals and sani tariums (VI. 6), although services of physi cians (VI.3) and dentists (VI.4) are ex pected to increase faster than in the past. Private education will have a declining share of PCE, growing at only 3.8 percent com pared to the average rate in the 1960’s of 5.8 percent. This slower growth for private education expenditures will be due to reduc tions in enrollment in private secondary and elementary schools in line with the reduced number of children in these age groups, and a reduced participation rate in private colleges and universities (X. 1) as public universities absorb an increasing proportion of college enrollees. However, other education (X.3), encompassing many adult education activities, will continue to have a strong growth pattern, over 5 per cent a year through 1985. Personal consumption expenditures by pro ducing sector. The discussion above des cribed the projection of consumer expend itures grouped into goods and services according to their use by the consumer. However, the input-output table is defined in terms of producing industries. The next 53 step in the projection of consumer expendi tures is to redefine the consumer categories in terms of the parts of each consumption category that are produced by each of the 134 industries. For any product, the proportion that is produced by a particular industry may change over time due to alterations in the composition of the consumer goods caused by demand fluctuations, technological changes, and other economic and noneco nomic factors. As an example, a steadily increasing proportion of all dinnerware pur chased by consumers has been plastic dinnerware. The distribution of producing industries for each of the consumer product groups was projected to 1980 and 1985. Initially each consumer category is shown in pur chaser prices. To arrive at the portion of these purchases generated by the pro ducing industry, the value added by certain industries providing transportation or dis tribution services must be separated from the purchasers’ value. (These transporta tion and distribution industries are called the margin industries and include whole sale and retail trade, insurance, and five transportation sectors.) Finally, the consum er bill of goods is arrived at by summing all values generated by each of the produc ing sectors. Four bills of goods were produced using the process described above. Two were for historical years: 1963, which is the base and is the source of all the resulting bridges (conversion tables between consumption data shown by category and by producing industry); and 1970, using the Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE estimates as of July 1972 and a projected bridge.4 The 4 other two were for the projection years 1980 and 1985. The bridge or transformation matrix that redefines product detail into input-output sector detail was computed in terms of 1963 dollars. Consequently, all projections which were made in 1958 dol lars are inflated to 1963 dollars to be con sistent with the input-output tables. Table 26. Changes in personal consumption expenditures by pro ducing sector: the 15 fastest growing industries between 1970 and 1980 (Based on data in 1 9 6 3 dollars, producers’ value) Average annual rates of change ' Industry 87 84 85 63 86 97 34 126 99 41 113 32 36 96 10 40 M iscellaneous transportatio n eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... Ship and boat building and re p a ir Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to... rs Railroad and other transportatio n eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Air tra n s p o rta tio. n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P rin tin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D irectly allocated im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . ... C om m unications, except radio and TV P a in.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Advertising. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P ap e rb o a rd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Agricultural c h e m ic a.ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W ater tra n s p o rta tio .n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Stone and clay mining and quarrying.. Cleaning and to ile t p re p a ra tio..... ns 1970-80 18.1 9.1 6.2 9.0 11.2 8.3 8.2 8.2 11 6 13.0 2.9 12.0 8.6 -2 .7 8.0 5.1 3.7 7.2 1.8 8.1 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.8 Compound interest rates between term inal years. NOTE: tab le A -2. Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix SOURCE: Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of C om m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics. Among the structural changes to the bridge matrix, imports was the most impor tant factor. Table 26 shows that between 1963 and 1970 directly allocated imports (EG industry 126)4 grew at a rate of 12 5 percent annually. Growth in per capita in come encouraged the import of a greater proportion of various products. In the pro jections, the level of imports was projected independently and distributed among the relevant products. The largest changes in imports are expected to be in food, shoes, clothing, and cars. The projected growth of imports directly allocated to PCE will be more modest than the 1963-70 rate. The entire margin category — that is the cost of moving goods from producer to con sumer^—accounts for over 22 percent of 45 Imports directly allocated to consumer expendi tures are those requiring no processing. Imports re quiring processing, such as steel, are allocated to the intermediate sector and may be embodied in goods bought by consumers, such as domestically produced cars. 44 For a description of the PCE bridge matrix, see Nancy W. Simon, "Personal Consumption Expenditures in the 1958 Input-Output Study,” Survey of Current Business, October 1965, pp. 7-20. 19 63 -70 54 PCE for all the years studied. The propor tion falls slightly in the projection period, mostly in the 1980’s. This is consistent with the projected growth of the three major components of PCE, specifically the slower growth of durables in comparison to the more sustained expansion of services. Dura bles require transportation and trade while services have no such margin—producer and buyer interchange directly, with no intermediaries. Trade will continue to cover about 95 percent of the margin although the compo nents will be growing at different rates — wholesale faster than the total, and retail more slowly. Among the transportation mar gin components, railroad and truck trans portation will not grow as rapidly as water, air, and other transportation, and insurance. This is also due to longrun shifts in the composition of transportation as well as to the shift towards imports. The consumers’ bridge matrix can be better understood by examining one cate gory of consumption and the producing industries which contribute to it (table 27). The consumption category china, glassware, Table 27. tableware, etc. (V.3) contains a variety of products produced by 10 industries, with the composition of these industries changing over time. The most impressive change with in this product group is that for imports, which rise from 14 percent of the total in 1963 to 38 percent in 1985. The plastic products industry is also expected to grow substantially faster than the total. Offset ting these increases are the industries that produce glass products, screw machine pro ducts, and miscellaneous manufacturing products. These industries will continue to grow more slowly than the total china and glassware category and thus their share declines. Gross private domestic investment Gross private domestic investment (GPDI) includes private spending for plant and equipment, residential structures, and net change in business inventories.4 This 6 investment is projected to total $192.7 bil lion in 1980 and $224.2 billion in 1985 (in 1963 dollars), or to show an average an nual growth rate of 4.8 percent for 1968-80 and 3.1 percent for 1980-85. These projected rates compare with an average annual rate of 2.6 percent for total private investment between 1955 and 1968 (table 28). Projections of investment demand are made separately for the major components of investment, as well as separately at the most detailed level for which data are avail able. The overall levels of investment are determined by the macromodel. Within in vestment, the initial projections of the dis tribution of investment by detailed category are based on past trends and relationships. As the projection process proceeds, the detailed projections of the composition of investment are modified on the basis of the projected rates of growth in industry output generated by the input-output system. This is done in order to achieve consistency between derived industry outputs and the Consumer purchases of china, glassware, and tableware by producing industry, 1963, 1970, and projected for 1985 (Based on data in 1 9 63 dollars, producers’ value) Percent distribution Industry Projected 1963 43 44 46 48 57 61 62 92 126 1985 T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.0 . 28 1970 100.0 100.0 M illw ork, plywood, and other wood products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 Rubber p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Plastic p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.9 . Glass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1 Miscellaneous stone and clay products ... 7.0 .7 Miscellaneous nonferrous m etal products. Screw m achine p roducts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7 Other fab ricated m etal products ............ 7.6 Miscellaneous m anufactured products .... 17.7 D irectly allocated im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.2 .. 1.9 .2 26.7 10.2 7.0 .7 15.4 7.5 12.0 18.3 1.5 .1 27.1 6.2 4.2 .4 9.3 5.8 7.2 38.1 NOTE: table A-2. Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix 46Net change in business inventories is not an im portant factor in long-range projections. Although the SOURCE: Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of system of accounts used here forces, for consistency, a Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by projection of net inventory change, it is not separately Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. discussed. 55 Table 28. Gross private domestic investment, selected years, 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Billions of 1963 dollars C om ponent Projected 1955 Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t ...... Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nonresidential (p la n t and e q u ip m e n t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tru ctu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producers’ durable equipm ent. . R es idential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Change in business in v e n to rie...... s 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 $7 8 .7 72.8 $64.1 65.5 $7 6 .6 72.3 $ 8 5.8 80 .5 $ 1 0 2 .4 94.1 $ 1 0 9 .3 103.4 $ 1 0 7 .4 103.8 $ 1 1 4 .7 109.8 $ 1 2 8 .0 12 3.8 $ 1 9 2 .7 18 1.9 $ 2 2 4 .2 2 1 3 .8 45 .8 18.2 27.5 27.0 5.9 43 .3 18.5 24 .8 22.2 -1 .4 45 .8 18.2 27.7 26.5 4.4 53.9 20.133.8 26 .6 5.3 68.5 25.1 43 .4 25.6 8.3 78 .4 26 .4 52 .0 25 .0 5.9 79 .9 26 .6 53 .3 23 .8 3.6 78.7 25 .3 53 .4 31 .2 4.9 8 6 .5 2 5 .9 6 0 .6 37 .3 4.2 141.0 42 .4 98 .6 4 0 .8 10.8 165.4 49 .4 116.1 4 8 .4 10.4 Average annual rates of change 1 Projected 1955-68 Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t ...... Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N onresidential (p la n t and e q u ip m e n t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producers’ durable equipm ent. R es id en tial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Change in business in v e n to rie...... s 19 65 -72 1 9 72 -80 19 68 -85 1968-80 1980-85 2.6 2.7 3.2 4.0 5.2 4.9 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.8 3.1 3.3 4.2 2.9 5.0 -.6 0 3.4 .4 4.9 5.5 -9 .3 6.3 6.4 6.3 1.1 12.5 4.5 3.8 4.8 4.0 3.4 5.0 4.0 5.5 4.2 5.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.5 -.8 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce, Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics. structures is changing; the shift is expected to result in considerably higher rates of growth. level and composition of investment de mand.4 7 Private investment grew at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent over the 195568 period and is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.8 percent between 1968 and 1980. These rates compare with 3.8 percent and 4.3 percent for total pri vate GNP over the same periods. This higher rate of growth for investment rela tive to private GNP is explained in large part by the trend in expenditures for new construction—residential and nonresidential. While most components of total invest ment are projected to increase at rates consistent with their historical trend, par ticularly in relationship to private GNP, residential structures are projected to in crease during 1968-80 at rates considerably higher than those attained in recent years. Also, the composition of nonresidential 4 7 The methodology for investment and other gories is discussed in detail in appendix A. Private residential construction. This cate gory of investment consists of single-family housing, apartments, additions and altera tions to existing housing units, and hotels and motels. The major considerations in pro jecting the demand for housing over the long run are the size and age distribution of the population, changes in income and family size, and changing preferences. These factors affect both the level and composi tion of residential construction activity. This component of investment is pro jected to total $40.8 billion in 1980 and $48.4 billion in 1985 (1963 dollars) (table 28). Compared to the 1968 level of $25.0 billion, this represents a projected average annual growth rate of 4.2 percent between 1968 and 1980. However, the 1968-72 ex pansion in residential construction, at an cateaverage annual rate of 10.5 percent, re sults in a projected rate of growth of 1.1 56 percent a year for 1972-80. From 1980 to 1985 the projected average rate of growth is 3.5 percent. These projected rates com pare with a decline in expenditures for resi dential structures (in real terms) of 0.6 percent between 1955 and 1968. The pro jected level of residential construction, par ticularly for 1980, is consistent with the level called for in the Nation’s housing goals.4 8 During 1960-72, a rapid rise in the con struction of apartment buildings took place. In this 12-year period multifamily housing averaged an increase of 13.0 percent a year while single-family housing grew at only 2.0 percent a year. However, over the last few years a considerable slowdown in the growth of apartments relative to single family housing has taken place. Thus, while the level of single-family housing construc tion in 1969 was lower in real terms than in 1960, during 1969-72 it increased at an average rate of 14.1 percent a year. Al though the projections were not made sep arately for single and multifamily residen tial construction, the demographic changes would indicate strong potential for multi family units. However, the turnaround of the last few years makes this far from a certainty. In 1972, additions and alterations ac counted for 13.4 percent of private residen tial construction. At the same time, non housekeeping units, hotels and motels, accounted for 4.1 percent. Given the low projected increase in the rate of private residential construction between 1972 and 1980, nonhousekeeping units are expected to increase somewhat as a share. Addi tions and alterations are expected to con tinue their trend as a declining share of private residential construction. pollution or safety requirements. Plant and equipment investment by businesses is pro jected to total $141.0 billion in 1980 and $165.4 billion in 1985 (1963 dollars). From $78.4 billion in 1968, plant and equipment investment is projected to grow at an aver age annual rate of 5.0 percent to 1980. Between 1980 and 1985 the projected rate of growth is an average of 3.2 percent a year. The increase and subsequent decline in the rate of increase follows the projected changes in private GNP growth over the period. These projected rates of growth in plant and equipment investment com pare with an average annual rate of 4.2 percent for the same category over the 1955-68 period (table 28). Since 1955 the structures component of investment has generally increased at a lower rate than equipment spending. For example, from 1955 to 1968 nonresidential construction put in place grew at an aver age annual rate of 2.9 percent. Over the same period spending for equipment aver aged an annual increase of 5.0 percent. However, between 1968 and 1980 nonresi dential construction put in place is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent. This relatively large increase in the projected growth of expenditures for structures is chiefly due to a projected rate of increase for public utilities of 6.4 percent a year between 1968 and 1980. Plant. In the input-output system the de mand for nonresidential construction (plant) is divided among three sectors. The first, nonresidential buildings, includes industri al plant, commercial and office buildings, religious buildings, educational buildings, hospital and institutional buildings, and a category referred to as other nonresiden tial buildings. Included in this last cate gory are bus terminal buildings, airport buildings, movie theaters, and other recrea tional buildings. Private demand for non residential building grew at an average annual rate of 4.2 percent between 1955 and 1968 (table 29). The output of this sec tor is projected to grow at an average an nual rate of 3.7 percent between 1968 and 1980. Commercial and office buildings, hos pitals, and other nonresidential buildings Plant and equipment. Investment by busi nesses in plant and equipment is a major factor influencing the rate of real growth in the economy. Firms invest in plant and equipment in order to expand productive capacity and to bring newer technologies into use as well as increasingly to meet 48See the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968 and the Second Annual Housing Report, updated by subsequent annual reports of the Department of Housing and Urban Development. 57 Table 29. Private construction, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Millions of 1963 dollars Projected Com ponent 1955 T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1958 1965 1963 1959 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 $ 4 5 ,2 0 0 $ 4 0 ,7 0 0 $ 4 4 ,7 0 0 $ 4 6 ,7 0 0 $ 5 0 ,7 0 0 $ 5 1 ,4 0 0 $ 5 0 ,4 0 0 $ 5 6 ,5 0 0 $ 6 3 ,2 0 0 $ 8 3 ,2 0 0 $ 9 7 ,8 0 0 Residential s tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Brokers’ com m issions on sale of structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 0 N et purchases of used s tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 7 ,0 0 0 2 6 ,1 0 9 2 2 ,2 0 0 2 2 ,0 3 8 2 6 ,5 0 0 2 5 ,94 1 2 6 ,6 0 0 2 6 ,1 7 6 2 5 ,6 0 0 2 5 ,2 7 0 2 5 ,0 0 0 2 4 ,5 9 0 2 3 ,8 0 0 23,601 3 1 ,2 0 0 30,91 7 3 7 ,3 0 0 3 6 ,9 5 3 4 0 ,8 0 0 4 0 ,4 3 3 4 8 ,4 0 0 4 7 ,9 6 4 1,188 1,1 6 0 1,136 1,069 1,039 1,181 1,019 1,409 1,577 1,591 1,888 - 297 -9 9 8 - 577 - 64 5 710 -7 7 1 N onresidential s tru c tu re.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 N onresidential buildings ... 14 Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 All othe r co nstruction ...1 109 B roke rs 'com m is sion s on sale of s tru c tu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 N et purchases of used s tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,20 0 17,88 8 9,117 4 ,5 5 3 4,2 1 7 1 8 ,5 0 0 1 8 ,45 6 9 ,7 2 8 4 ,8 8 9 3,8 3 9 1 8 ,2 0 0 1 8 ,26 4 9 ,689 4 ,6 2 4 3,951 2 0 ,1 0 0 2 0 ,0 0 5 1 1 ,6 6 9 4 ,6 7 6 3 ,660 2 5 ,1 0 0 2 5 ,0 2 0 1 5 ,79 7 5,617 3,6 0 6 2 6 ,4 0 0 2 6 ,3 7 2 1 5 ,5 4 9 7 ,5 4 8 3,276 2 6 ,6 0 0 2 6 ,6 0 0 1 5 ,3 5a 8 ,016 3,231 2 5 ,3 0 0 2 5 ,3 0 8 1 4 ,31 0 7,981 3,017 2 5 ,9 0 0 2 5 ,8 8 7 14,101 8 ,6 7 5 3,111 4 2 ,4 0 0 4 3 ,3 5 8 2 3 ,9 4 8 1 5 ,92 5 2 ,4 8 5 4 9 ,4 0 0 4 9 ,3 5 0 2 8 ,6 0 4 1 8 ,35 4 2 ,3 9 2 152 167 164 155 150 134 129 119 117 212 247 160 -1 2 3 - 22 7 -6 0 -7 0 106 - 129 -1 2 7 - 104 -1 7 0 -1 9 8 - - - 820 - 1,126 - 1 , 2 2 9 -1 ,2 2 4 -1 ,4 5 2 Average annual rates of change 2 Projected 19 55 -68 19 65 -72 19 72 -80 1968-85 19 68 -80 19 80 -85 T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.1 3.3 Residential s tru c tu re.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Brokers’ com m issions on sale of s tru c tu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - .6 - .5 5.5 5.6 1.1 1.1 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 3.5 3.5 N onresiden tial stru c tu re................... s New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 N onresidential buildings ... 14 Public u tilitie .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 16 All othe r construction > . . . . 109 B rokers’ com m issions on sale of s tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — 6.1 .1 2.8 2.5 3.5 2.9 3.0 4.2 4.0 -1 .9 .4 .5 - 1.6 6.4 - 2.1 6.4 6.3 6.8 7.9 -2 .8 3.8 3.8 3.7 5.4 - 1.8 4.0 4.0 3.7 6.4 - 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.6 2.9 - .8 - 1.0 - 7.7 3.7 3.9 3.1 3.4 1 Includes farm residential construction. In the national incom e a c Adm inistration and the Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, U.S. D ep a rtm en t of counts, farm residential is not included here but is included in residentialCom m erce, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; p ro jectio n s by Bureau of Labor S tatistics. construction. 2 Compound interest rates between term inal years. NOTE: Numbers fo r com ponents refer to sectoring plan shown in ap pen dix SOURCE: H istorical data from the Dom estic and Intern atio n a l Business tab le A-2. 0 are expected to be the faster growing com ponents of this sector, although hospital construction in particular is not expected to grow nearly as fast as it has in the past. A second category of private nonresidential construction is public utilities con struction which includes railroad, telephone and telegraph, electric utility, gas utility, and petroleum pipeline construction. Pri vate demand for this sector grew at an average annual rate of 4.0 percent between 1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1980the 09 private demand for public utility construc tion is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.4 percent. A significant factor in the higher growth is the continu ing need for ever-increasing capacity in al most all of segments of the public utility sector but most particularly for electric utilities. Over the 1955-68 period electric utility construction increased at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent, raising its share from 41.4 to 49.9 percent of total private utility construction. Over the 1965-72 58 period, on the other hand, electric utilities construction grew at 11.2 percent per year; thus, by 1972, electric utilities’ share had increased further to 60.4 percent. This com ponent of public utility construction is ex pected to become even larger by 1980. The third private nonresidential con struction sector is "all other nonresidential construction” which includes nonresidential farm construction, oil and gas well drilling and exploration, and all other private con struction. This last category includes all privately owned projects which are not classified elsewhere such as streets, air fields, playgrounds, etc. This sector’s out put declined at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent over the 1955-68 period. This decline is projected to continue between 1968 and 1985, reflecting continued de clines in farm employment as well as the assumption used in these projections that a large part of the increases in energy re quirements would be met from imports—as a consequence oil and gas well drilling was not projected to expand. Equipment. Expenditures for producers’ durable equipment (PDE) are projected to increase from $52.0 billion in 1968 to $98.6 billion in 1980 (1963 dollars). Between 1980 and 1985, PDE is projected to increase to $116.1 billion. These projections reflect an annual rate of growth of 5.5 percent be tween 1968 and 1980 and 3.3 percent for the 1980-85 period. From 1955 to 1968, PDE expenditures increased at an average Table 30. Producers’ durable equipment by producing industry, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 M illions of 1963 dollars, purchaser prices Industry Projected 1958 1955 30 43 60 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 n ] 72 73 74 75 78 79 80 81 83 84 85 86 87 89 91 92 99 . Other fu rn itu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rubber p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fabricated structural m e ta l ........... Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to rs ... . Farm m achinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Construction, m ining, and oil field m ach in ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a terial handling e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . M etalw orking m a chinery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........... Special industry m a c h in e ry General industrial m achin ery. . . . . . . . . . Computers and peripheral equipm ent Typewriters and other office m a c h in e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Service in dustry m a chin es.................. Electric transm ission e q u ip m e n t .... Electrical industrial a p p a ra tu....... s Radio and television se ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Telephone and telegraph ap p aratu s .. Other electronic co m m unication eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M o tor veh icles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ship and boat building and repair.... Railroad and other transportatio n eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Miscellaneous transportatio n eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Medical and dental in s tru m e n ts ..... Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M iscellaneous m anufactured p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Com m unications, except radio and T V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $7 6 1 11 513 398 1,720 $ 760 14 561 448 1,788 1959 $ 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 838 15 482 40 9 1,831 $ 1 ,1 2 6 18 536 388 1,900 $ 1 ,2 2 8 24 797 391 2 ,227 $ 1 ,3 7 5 25 877 723 2,9 0 5 $1,48 1 19 893 799 2,9 9 8 $ 1 ,4 0 0 24 88 3 911 2,805 $ 1 ,5 3 4 32 871 87 0 3,465 $ 2 ,4 6 2 32 1,572 1 ,607 5 ,014 $ 2 ,7 1 6 35 1,746 1,897 5,847 1,694 552 1,682 1,814 1,278 515 1,431 49 0 1,307 1,629 1,133 707 1,698 557 1,358 1,771 1,117 751 1,758 665 1,668 2,0 2 4 1,382 1,279 2,1 0 5 877 2,2 2 9 2 ,6 7 5 1,720 1,745 ' 2 ,2 6 3 923 2 ,4 9 3 2 ,5 6 0 1,732 2 ,8 1 3 2 ,455 980 2 ,283 2,469 1,790 3,422 2,4 9 2 922 1,745 2,2 8 4 1,625 2,9 3 5 2,8 5 0 1,037 1,952 2,5 7 4 1,829 3,326 3 ,970 1,702 3,427 3 ,992 2 ,927 9 ,314 4 ,5 3 0 2 ,248 3 ,789 4.114 3,604 13,02 9 186 795 1,133 454 89 634 255 811 1,110 444 106 757 262 881 1,172 48 5 125 834 335 1 ,110 1,275 584 112 906 43 3 1,392 1,454 744 161 1,150 623 1,675 1,191 644 186 1,304 60 2 1,845 1,267 647 171 1,870 561 1,904 1,197 631 175 1,669 636 2,212 1,297 703 142 1,225 1,073 3 ,526 2,1 5 7 1,2 7 8 337 3 ,574 1,368 4 ,1 5 0 2,649 1,449 380 4 ,1 9 3 386 46 4,925 130 292 460 55 3,1 2 2 263 484 527 54 4 ,0 9 5 602 452 904 96 5 ,6 6 3 44 5 344 1,099 176 7,041 914 488 1,539 197 8 ,5 7 4 2 ,2 8 9 547 1,643 242 7 ,9 0 5 1,368 60 8 1,592 22 3 9 ,5 1 4 721 634 1,263 169 12 ,40 7 1,028 830 3,2 2 8 468 14,474 4 ,0 9 4 1,267 3,937 619 15,93 4 5,414 1,393 1,314 894 935 952 1,942 1,8 8 0 1,696 1,984 1,862 2,9 9 8 3,149 69 164 82 156 89 168 169 269 227 320 370 427 508 46 2 549 487 645 520 1,061 1,170 1,398 1,370 88 80 93 196 287 434 661 763 824 1,5 9 3 2 ,349 300 355 393 495 586 700 725 822 1,015 1,070 1,197 340 405 446 486 615 697 1,002 893 653 1,813 2,1 4 5 See foo tn o te s at end o f tab le. 59 Table 30. Producers’ durable equipment by producing industry, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985—Continued Average annual rates of change 1 Industry Projected 1955-68 30 43 60 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 71 72 73 74 75 78 79 80 81 83 84 85 86 87 89 91 92 99 Other fu r n itu r.e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Rubber p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fabricated structural m e ta l ........... Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to... rs .. Farm m achin ery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Construction, mining, and oil field m a ch in ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M ateria l handling eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . .. M etalw orking m achin ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Special industry m a c h in e ........... ry General industrial m achin ery. . . . . . . . . . Com puters and peripheral equipm ent Typew riters and other office m a c h in e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Service industry m achin es ............. Electric transm ission e q u ip m e.... nt E lectrical industrial a p p a ra tu s ....... .. Radio and television se ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . Telephone and telegraph a p p a ra tu s .. O ther electronic com m unication eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M o tor v e h icles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ship and boat building and rep a ir.... Railroad and other transportatio n eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Miscellaneous transportatio n eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Medical and dental in s tru m en..... ts Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Miscellaneous m anufactured p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Com m unications, except radio and T V . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1965-72 1972-80 1968-80 1980-85 4.7 6.8 4.2 4.7 4.1 3.2 4.2 1.3 12.1 6.5 6.1 .1 7.7 8.0 4.7 4.1 1.9 4.1 5.8 4.2 5.0 2.0 5.0 6.9 4.7 2.0 1.8 2.1 3.4 3.1 2.3 4.0 3.1 2.7 2.4 13.9 4.4 2.4 -1 .9 -.5 .9 9.7 4.2 6.4 7.3 5.6 6.1 13.7 4.2 5.4 2.5 2.8 4.4 9.4 4.8 5.2 2.7 3.8 4.5 10.5 2.7 5.7 2.0 .6 4.2 6.9 9.8 5.9 .4 2.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.8 -1 .6 -.8 -1 .8 .9 6.8 6.0 6.6 7.8 11.4 14.3 4.7 5.5 4.8 4.9 4.3 7.1 4.6 6.4 5.1 5.9 5.1 8.8 5.0 3.3 4.2 2.5 2.4 3.2 11.2 11.8 4.4 24.7 4 .9 2.0 -.6 8.4 1.7 7.9 12.4 13.5 1.9 18.9 5.4 5.7 7.0 3.7 5.2 5.7 6.4 7.5 4.5 5.0 7.3 4.1 5.8 1.9 5.7 1.9 2.8 -.6 6.1 3.1 4.0 1.0 13.7 7.6 16.1 7.2 6.4 10.7 8.1 7.1 9.2 8.8 5.7 3.2 13.1 16.3 8.6 10.4 11.4 8.1 6.7 8.2 .7 3.2 3.6 2.3 5.7 .8 13.6 6.8 8.3 3.4 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. projections by Bureau o f Labor Statistics. SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 19 63 dollars by Bureau of Labor S tatistics; annual rate of 5.0 percent in real terms (table 28). For the 40 industries producing produc ers’ durable equipment, 1968-80 projected growth rates range from 2.0 percent a year for rubber products to 11.4 percent for photographic equipment (which includes photocopying equipment). (See table 30.) Computers and peripheral equipment is expected to increase at an average an nual rate of 10.5 percent between 1968 and 1980. In addition to photographic equip ment and computers, transportation equip ment (primarily trailers), telephone and telegraph apparatus, and medical and den 1968-85 NOTE: tab le A-2. Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in app tal instruments are expected to increase at rates well above the average for all PDE between 1968 and 1980. The projected average annual rates of growth are 9.2 percent for miscellaneous transportation equipment, 8.8 percent for telephone and telegraph apparatus, and 8.8 percent for medical and dental instruments. While industries producing PDE are largely manufacturing industries, the de mand for PDE comes from all industries. Thus, the changing composition of PDE is related to industry growth rates and chang ing technology in the economy as a whole, not just the manufacturing industries that 60 produce capital equipment. As a result, the faster growing types of PDE are asso ciated with industries which are gaining in relative importance and with industries which are substituting newer types of equip ment in their operations. During the 1955-68 period, electronic components and aircraft were among the five fastest growing types of investment goods. For the 1968-80 period, the elec tronic components industry is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 7.5 percent, down from an average annual rate of 11.8 percent over the 1955-68 period. This industry produces magnetic recording tape. The demand for this item is expected to more than keep pace with the overall growth of PDE but to increase at a slower rate than during the 1955-68 period. The aircraft and parts industry is ex pected to grow at less than the rate for all PDE over the 1968-80 period but to more than keep pace with the expansion in pri vate GNP. The projected rate of 5.0percent a year between 1968 and 1980 compares with an average annual rate of 24.7 percent over the 1955-68 period. This is not the slowdown it appears to be at first glance. In the past, this investment item has ex perienced extremely large yearly changes, both increases and decreases. Between 1968 and 1971 investment in aircraft showed an average annual rate of decline of 31.8 per cent a year. As a consequence, the pro jected average annual rate of increase is 21.3 percent when calculated between 1971 and 1980, compared to the 5.0 percent over 1968-80. In addition, investment expenditures for construction, mining and oil field machinery, farm machinery, general industrial machin ery, and motor vehicles and trucks will expand, but less rapidly than PDE. N et exports Net exports in the input-output system reflect the balance on goods and services as reported in the U. S. balance of pay ments accounts. Net exports represent the excess of exports over imports in mer chandise trade, military transactions, tra vel and transportation, investment income, and other services. The following section describes the assumptions underlying the projection of net exports, their treatment in the input-output system, the projections of U. S. imports and exports, and the impli cations of these for the U. S. balance of payments. Assumptions. In projecting net exports, several assumptions were made in addition to those underlying the projections as a whole. Income flows to foreigners from their investments in the United States grew sharply during the late 1960’s. It was felt that this growth in income outflows was a relatively short-term anomaly in the balance of payments. Thus, it was assumed that investment income flows to foreigners would slow to the longer run historical rate of growth by the mid-1970’s and remain at that rate for the rest of the projection period. Second, imports of both crude and re fined petroleum were assumed to follow pro jections developed by the U. S. Department of the Interior.4 Implicit in this Interior 9 Department study is the assumption that U. S. refinery capacity would not expand by a significant amount during the 1970’s due to long lags in refinery construction. As a result, 90 percent of the increases in petroleum imports between 1970-80 were assumed to be in the form of refined petro leum products. After 1980 the Interior De partment study assumed that refinery capa city in the United States would start to increase as refineries started in the mid1970’s came into operation. Thus, petroleum import increases between 1980 and 1985 were split equally between the crude petro leum industry and the refined petroleum products industry. This assumption, of course, has been brought into serious ques tion since initially made. For that reason BLS is currently developing 1980 and 1985 projections with different energy assump tions. Finally, it was assumed that over the latter half of the projection period (roughly 1978-85) the United States would experi ence a favorable balance of trade in goods (U. 61 49 S. United States Energy Through the Year 2000 Department of the Interior, December 1972). Table 31. U .S. exports by major sector, 19 6 3 ,19 70 , and projected for 1980 and 1985 Percent distribution M illions of 1963 dollars Sector Projected 1963 T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....... Agriculture, forestry, and fis h e rie s M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ra n s p o rta tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C om m unication and public u tilitie s ....... T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta ...... te Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Governm ent e n te rp ris e.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dum m y industries 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Special industries 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1970 198C Projected 1985 $3 2 ,6 7 8 $ 5 2 ,4 6 7 $ 1 0 4 ,5 0 0 $ 1 3 3 ,4 2 5 3,014 536 2 17,107 3,141 105 1,819 45 9 762 91 317 367 4,9 5 8 3,3 2 0 860 3 2 8 ,4 3 3 5,038 285 3,1 0 8 802 1,296 108 557 456 8,201 5,731 1,582 8 5 6 ,3 4 2 9,541 824 5,824 1,590 2,532 176 1,110 1,240 18,000 Average annual rates of change 1 6,380 1,935 8 6 9 ,81 5 11,771 1,118 7,207 1,983 3,131 197 1,500 1,680 2 6 ,70 0 Projected 1963 1970 1980 1985 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 7.0 6.4 7.2 5.0 9.2 1.6 .0 52.4 9.6 .3 5.6 1.4 2.3 .3 1.0 1.1 15.2 6.3 1.6 .0 54.2 9.6 .5 5.9 1.5 2.5 .2 1.1 .9 15.6 5.5 1.5 .0 53.9 9.1 .-8 5.6 1.5 2.4 .2 1.1 1.2 17.2 4.8 1.5 .0 52.3 8.8 .8 5.4 1.5 2.4 .2 1.1 1.3 20.0 1.4 7.0 6.0 7.5 7.0 15.4 8.0 8.3 7.9 2.5 8.4 3.2 7.5 4.5 5.6 6.8 6.2 5.8 9.5 5.8 6.2 6.0 4.1 6.8 9.1 8.2 5.6 6.3 10.3 7.1 6.6 11.2 6.5 7.1 6.9 5.0 7.2 10.5 8.2 2.2 4.1 0 4.3 4.3 6.3 4.3 4.5 4.3 2.3 6.2 6.3 8.2 19 63 -70 19 70 -85 19 70 -80 1980-85 3 Special industries include governm ent, rest of the world, households, 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 2 Three synthetic industries which represent an aggregation of co m and inventory valuation adjustm ent. m odities or services originating in other industries but whose use is related to a common activity for which in form ation on consum ption is generally SOURCE: Historical data com piled and converted to 19 63 dollars by available only fo r the entire group. These three industries are 1) business Bureau of Labor S tatistics from data prepared by Bureau of Econom ic A naly travel, en tertain m en t, and gifts, 2 ) o ffic e supplies, and 3) scrap, used and sis and Bureau of th e Census, U. S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce; projections by Bureau o f Labor Statistics. secondhand. For more detail see appendix A. and services. However, as will be discussed later, this still implies a merchandise trade deficit, largely because of the very large projected increase in the importation of petroleum. turnaround was due primarily to sales of grain to Russia. Even if these sales con tinue at their present level or with some modest growth, it is expected that agricul tural exports will again decline as a percent of total exports. Between 1970, and 1980 exports are expected to increase by more than $52 bil lion or at a rate of 7.2 percent, slightly higher than the 1963-70 rate of growth. Those sectors which are projected to grow much more rapidly than the average are communications and public utilities (pro jected 1970-80 rate of growth of 11.2 per cent) and the special industries sector (pro jected rate of 8.2 percent). In the first sector the high growth rate is explained by high projected rates of growth in interna tional communications networks, both tele phone and telegraph, which are expected to be spurred on by the dissemination of ad vanced communications technology (for ex ample, COMSAT). The communications in dustry (which includes all communications except for radio and television) is expected to grow by 11.5 percent a year between 1970 and 1980. In the special industries sector the high growth rate is caused by U. S. exports. Total U. S. exports grew by approximately $20 billion (1963 dollars) between 1963 and 1970 — or at an average annual rate of 7.0 percent. (See table 31.) During this period, 7 of the 13 sectors under consideration increased their share of total exports. The manufacturing sec tor increased its share from 52.4 per cent of total exports in 1963 to 54.2 percent in 1970. This was due mainly to large increases in exports of com puters and peripheral equipment and electronic components, which were rela tively minor industries in 1963 in terms of exports. The sector which underwent the largest decline during this period was agri culture, forestry, and fisheries. Its share of exports declined from 9.2 percent in 1963 to 6.3 percent in 1970 and 6.1 in 1971. In 1972, agricultural exports reversed their trend and rose to $4.1 billion, approximate ly 7.2 percent of total U. S. exports. This 62 expected large growth in income returns from U. S. investment in foreign countries. Although high expectations are held for a few industries (most notably the computer industry, projected to grow by 12.5 percent a year between 1970 and 1980, and the electronic components industry, projected to grow at a rate of 7.6 percent), U. S. exports of manufactured goods are expected to grow at a steadily decreasing rate throughout the projection period. By 1980, manufacturing exports are projected to ac count for 53.9 percent of total exports, down from 54.2 percent in 1970. The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector, and the min ing sector are expected to continue to have a declining share of overall exports during the 1970-80 period. All other sectors are expected to hold a roughly equivalent posi tion in total exports to 1980. Between 1980 and 1985 a slowdown in growth of U. S. exports is expected. In creases of approximately $29 billion (1963 dollars) are projected over this 5-year period with an implied rate of growth of 5.0 percent a year. Again, higher than aver age rates of growth are expected in the communications industry and in investment income flows. Manufacturing is projected to lag even further behind, decreasing its share of total exports to 52.3 percent by 1985. The foreign demand for electronic compo nents is still expected to be high during this period (the projected rate of growth of exports in this industry is 5.8 percent a year) while demand for computers is pro jected to decline to about the average growth rate of exports. U.S. imports. Imports in the U.S. inputoutput framework are split between those items which are intermediate goods in the production process and those items which go directly to the final user. For example, in table 32, the value of imports in the manufacturing sector represents only those manufactured imports (such as steel) which are intermediate to other goods. Other manufactured imports appear in the final demand categories (watches in personal consumption expenditures and some im ported trucks in gross private domestic investment, for example).5 0 Between 1963 and 1970 total U. S. im ports grew by more than $22 billion (1963 dollars), or at an average annual rate of 7.9 percent. Of the 17 major sectors (in cluding the 5 final demand categories) un der consideration, 8 grew more rapidly than imports as a whole. These categories with rapid growth include the special industries sector (mainly rest-of-the-world industry — chiefly income flows), communication and public utilities, private investment, person al consumption, and reexports. Only one sector, other services, underwent an abso lute decline from 1963 to 1970. The remain der of the sectors grew more slowly than the total; most were very close to the over all growth rate with the exception of the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector (with an annual growth rate of 1.0 percent) and the mining sector (1.9 percent). Between 1970 and 1980, total imports (merchandise and other) are projected to grow at the slightly lower rate of 7.6 per cent a year. This represents an expected increase in imports of about $53 billion (in 1963 dollars) over 1970 levels. Of this in crease, almost $11 billion is expected to occur in the oil industries: crude oil in the mining sector and refined oil in the manu facturing sector. Due to the assumptions concerning the distribution between crude and refined oil imports during this period, most of the projected increases fall in the manufactured petroleum products industry. For this reason, the manufacturing sector, which has maintained its share of total im ports at approximately 41 percent over the historical period, is projected to increase its share to more than 46 percent by 1980. The other sector projected to undergo sharp growth between 1970 and 1980 is the com munication and public utilities sector, which is projected to grow at an annual rate of 12.0 percent a year. This high rate of growth is due mainly to large projected increases in natural gas imports (liquified petroleum gases). The projected rate of growth of imports in this industry is 17.1 percent a year between 1970 and 1980. 50 A more detailed discussion of this method of classi fication is given in appendix A. 63 Table 32. U .S. imports by major sector, 19 6 3 ,19 70 , and projected for 1980 and 1985 Percent distribution Millions of 1963 dollars Sector T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Projected Projected 1963 1970 1980 Average annual rates of change 1 1985 $2 6 ,9 3 5 $ 4 9 ,3 1 4 $ 1 01 ,84 1 $ 1 2 5 ,9 6 9 Projected 1963-70 1970-85 19 7 0 -8 0 1980-85 1963 1970 1980 1985 100.0 10 0.0 10 0.0 10 0.0 7.9 6.4 7.6 4.3 . Agriculture, forestry, and fis h e rie .s. . . . . M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ra n s p o rta tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C om m unication and public u tilitie .s. . . . . T ra d e ............................................... Finance, insurance, and real e s ta ...... te . O ther services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G overnm ent e n te rp ris e.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dum m y industries 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Special industries 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S ubtotal, industries 1 -1 3.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,039 1,878 1,116 2,147 1,484 3,647 1.603 5117 3.9 7.0 2.3 4.4 1.5 3.6 1.3 4.1 1.0 1.9 2.5 5.9 2.9 5.5 1.6 7.0 10,91 0 1,776 144 26 145 133 244 587 924 17,80 6 2 0 ,23 7 2,671 384 42 235 77 392 1,112 3,363 3 1 ,7 7 6 4 7 ,0 7 0 4,7 8 7 1,190 68 337 89 651 2,061 6,0 0 0 6 7 ,38 4 57 832 6 497 1672 80 394 101 786 3,056 8 ,000 8 5 ,13 8 40 .5 6.6 .5 .1 .5 .5 .9 2.2 3.4 66.1 41 .0 5.4 .8 .1 .5 .2 .8 2.2 6.8 64.4 46 .2 4.7 1.2 .1 .3 .1 .6 2.0 5.9 66 .2 4 5 .9 5.2 1.3 .1 .3 .1 .6 2.4 6.4 67 .6 9.3 6.0 15.0 7.1 7.1 -7 .5 7.0 9.6 20 .5 8.7 7.3 6.1 10.3 4.4 3.5 1.8 4.8 7.0 6.0 6.8 8.8 6.0 12.0 5.0 3.7 1.5 5.2 6.4 5.9 7.8 4.2 6.3 7.1 3.3 3.2 2.6 3.9 8.2 5.9 4.8 Personal co n su m p tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private in v estm en.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Reexports 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal G overnm ent 5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and local g overnm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,0 0 4 187 286 2,649 3 1 2 ,77 9 489 593 3,672 5 2 7 ,34 4 396 1,110 5,597 10 32 ,34 8 405 1,500 6 ,566 12 22.3 .7 1.1 9.8 25.9 1.0 1.2 7.5 0 26 .8 .4 1.1 5.5 0 25.7 .3 1.2 5.2 11.4 14.7 11.0 4.9 7.6 6.4 -1 .3 6.4 4.0 6.0 7.9 -2 .2 6.5 4.3 7.2 3.4 .5 6.2 3.2 3.8 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 2 See fo o tn o te 2, tab le 31. 3 See fo o tn o te 3, tab le 31. 4 Reexports are item s im ported to the United S tates and then returned to the country of origin because they cannot be sold or need repair, for exam ple. 5 Approxim ately tw o-thirds of Federal Government purchases of im ports are item s purchased abroad for use by U.S. m ilitary bases. The rem aining Only one other sector is projected to grow more rapidly than the average be tween 1970 and 1980: imports directly allo cated to personal consumption, which are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.9 percent. This is consistent with the strong growth tendencies projected over this period for disposable personal income and with the trend over the last few years for importing manufactured consumer goods. The remainder of the sectors are pro jected to grow at rates less than the over all rate of growth in imports between 1970 and 1980. For the most part, this is a func tion of the projected growth in the oil and gas industries which is large enough to have a disproportionate effect on the over all projected rate of growth in imports. Aside from these growth-oriented industries, the rates of growth and relative shares of the remaining sectors are projected to ad here quite closely to historical trends. 0 0 . one-third is accounted for by income returns on U.S. Governm ent held by foreigners and U .S . Government purchases of foreigners. SOURCE: Historical data compiled and converted to 19 63 dollar Bureau of Labor S tatistics from data prepared by Bureau of Econom ic An sis and Bureau of the Census, U.S. D epartm ent of Commerce; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. Between 1980 and 1985, the growth rate of imports is expected to decline sharply to 4.3 percent a year in line with projected downturns in the rate of growth of GNP as a whole. This still represents an expected increase of over $24 billion during this period, about $5.3 billion of which comes from the oil and gas industries, resulting in a level of $21.6 billion of petroleum im ports (1963 collars) by 1985. The trans portation sector also is expected to experien9e greater than average gains due to expanded use of air transportation as a method of transferring freight. (Purchases of air freight from foreign airlines are pro jected to grow by 10.1 percent a year be tween 1980 and 1985.) In summary, imports are expected to slow only slightly over the 1970’s from their historical trend growth rate. However, as the growth of GNP declines sharply in the early 1980’s, so also will the growth of im ports. The major growth areas for imports 64 over this period are expected to be crude oil, manufactured oil, gas utilities, and air transportation (reflecting in partthe energy assumptions built into these projections). tions of the currencies of the U. S. major trading partners will be not to reverse this trend but merely to slow the rate of growth of the merchandise trade deficit. At the same time high rates of growth in income from U. S. investments abroad are pro jected to more than offset the deficit in merchandise trade, resulting in a surplus in the balance on goods and services. All trends seem to mark the gradual entrance of the United States into a new phase in its international relationships, that of a mature creditor nation. More and more, as the United States loses its comparative advantage in merchandise items, it may expect to export larger amounts of invest ment capital and entrepreneurial ability, becoming more services-oriented in its inter national trade. Implications for the U. S. balance of pay ments. Both historically and during the projected period, merchandise imports are becoming a larger percent of total imports while merchandise exports are becoming smaller proportional to total exports. The implications are clear: the United States may be expected to experience relatively larger merchandise trade deficits through out the 1970’s and early 1980’s (table 33), particularly under the assumption used in these projections that energy needs will be met from petroleum imports. The major effect of dollar devaluations and revalua Table 33. U.S. balance of payments by major component, selected years 1963- 72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 M illions of 1963 dollars Projected Com ponent 1970 .. Merchandise trade balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 5,224 E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 ,27 2 Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,048 M ilitary transactions, n e. .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 2,304 Travel and transportatio n, n e t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 1,312 Investm ent income, n e t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 .153 4,018 U.S. direct investm ent a b ro a.d. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,521 Other U.S. investm ent a b ro a d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,386 Foreign investm ent in United S ta te s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 Other services, n e t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Balance on goods and services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. $ -1 ,8 4 7 3 4 ,2 0 6 3 6 ,0 5 3 - 2 ,300 - 1,859 6.372 7,558 2 ,7 5 2 3,938 591 3,469 5,940 1972 1971 $ 1,612 3 4 ,7 8 2 3 3 ,1 7 0 - 2 ,8 2 0 - 1,088 5.294 6,6 5 3 2,945 4,304 471 1963 1980 1 1985 $ -3 ,1 0 5 37 ,94 8 4 1 ,0 5 3 - 2,576 - 2,0 2 8 5,614 7,745 2,592 4 ,723 725 $ -9 ,6 5 1 8 3 .1 2 4 9 2 ,7 7 5 - 2 ,3 0 0 2 13,358 2 19,151 - 1,361 957 $ -4 ,7 5 8 6 6 ,0 4 4 70,80 2 - 2,300 6,3 0 0 7,2 0 0 Average annual rates of change 3 Projected 1963-70 Merchandise exports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Merchandise im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nonm erchandise e x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nonm erchandise im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1970-80 19 80 -85 6.6 10.0 7.9 7.3 6.7 7.9 8.1 5.4 4.7 56 5.5 4.1 2 These figures represent the net of travel and transportatio n, invest ' These figures represent U.S. im ports as they were projected in the aggregate for control purposes. Im ports generated w ithin the inpu t-output m ent incom e, and other services. Due to the trea tm en t of these item s in m atrix are then balanced to sum to these controls (see appendix A). How.- inpu t-output analysis it was im possible to separate them in the projected years. ever, it was not possible to bring the 1 9 80 generated im port levels into balance with aggregate projections w ith o u t introducing what were considered 3 Compound interest rates between term inal years. to be unrealistic strains into the industry-level projections. T herefore, for SOURCE. H isto rical data from U.S Departm ent of Com m erce, converted 19 80 , generated im ports are $3 .6 billion higher than the projected balance to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of on goods and services presented here. T he generated level of im ports in the Labor S tatistics. 1985 table is in balance with 1985 projected im ports. 65 Table 34. Changes in State and local government purchases of goods and services, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85 (Based on data in 1963 dollars) Average annual rates of change 1 Projected Category 19 55 -68 1965-72 19 72 -80 1968-85 19 68 -80 1 9 80 -85 State and local governm ent purchases of goods and s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 5.4 5.5 4.7 5.1 3.8 E d u c a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O th er. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 5.5 4.9 5.8 4.1 6.4 3.5 5.5 4.0 5.8 2.2 4 .6 ' Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCE: m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by Bureau Historical data based on data from U.S. Departm ent of Corn- of Labor S tatistics; projections by Bureau of Labor S ta tistics . drop to a 2.2 percent annual rate in the 1980 to 1985 period. At the same time, the 5.5-percent rate of growth for other pur chases of goods and services in 195568 is expected to continue to 1985. In fact, the rate of increase accelerates to 5.8 per cent annually to 1980, and then subsides to a yearly rate of 4.6 percent during 198085. This represents a substantial increase in the purchases of goods and services for a wide variety of health, welfare, recrea tional, and general government functions which far outweigh the expected smaller share of State and local government ex penditures for highways. Highways repre sent a second category of State and local activity where future growth is projected at a rate much lower than in the past. State and local government Although still projected to grow more rapidly than GNP, State and local govern ment purchases of goods and services are expected to increase at a slower rate than in the past. Total purchases by States and localities rose at an average annual rate of 5.6 percent between 1955 and 1968; in the 1968 to 1985 period these purchases are projected to advance at an annual rate of 4.7 percent. The rate of growth is 5.1 percent annually to 1980, with a decelera tion to 3.8 percent between 1980 and 1985 (table 34). Underlying the slowdown in the rate of growth for State and local government pur chases are major changes in the composi tion of these purchases. Education has tradi tionally been the largest single function of State and local governments and compen sation per employee in education has always been higher on the average than for other employees. Therefore, it is espe cially significant that the postwar enroll ment increases at the elementary and secondary school levels have slowed. Total numbers of pupils in elementary schools have already started to decrease and, after the mid-1970’s, secondary school enroll ments are likewise expected to decline. In contrast to the 5.7-percent annual rate of growth between 1955-68 for education purchases by State and local governments, the projected rate of increase from 1968 to 1985 is 3.5 percent. This rate is composed of an average rate of change of 4.0 percent between 1968 and 1980, with a further The substantial shifts in the proportion of State and local government expenditures used for compensation of employees, as opposed to purchases of goods and services or construction, reflect much the same fac tors as the change in functional patterns of spending. The compensation of government employees (in 1963 dollars), which ac counted for more than 57 percent of State and local spending in 1955, had declined to somewhat more than 50 percent of the total by 1972. The projections indicate that compensation will continue to decline and will amount to approximately 44 percent and 42 percent, respectively, of this sec tor’s total expenditures in 1980 and 1985. Structures, which accounted for more than one-quarter of State and local government purchases in 1955, accounted for less than 66 16 percent in 1972. The decrease to a large degree reflected a substantial drop in the construction of schools and highways. In 1980 and 1985, the share of State and local government purchases going to construction is expected to be about the same as in 1972. On the other hand, all other purchases by States and localities are projected to show a relative increase, rising from onethird of total purchases in 1972 to 40 per cent in 1980 and 43 percent in 1985. The projections for Federal nondefense pur chases are for rates of expansion more in line with the latter period. Outlays on space programs, or total Na tional Aeronautics and Space Administra tion (NASA) expenditures (in 1963dollars), are projected to rise, retui*ning to approxi mately the 1970 level by 1980, although falling as a percent of GNP. Outlays by NASA are projected at $2.6 billion (in 1963 dollars) for 1980 and $3.1 billion for 1985. These projections assume that NASA’s bud get will continue to be subject to pressures from other priority programs, but that mod erate increases will occur. Manpower costs are assumed to remain at about the 1970 level, with almost all of the increase going into purchases of equipment. Continued de velopment of the Space Shuttle program at a moderate rate was assumed. Outlays for completed space vehicles and electronic and communication equipment are pro jected to rise somewhat from the 1970 level, while purchases of space vehicle compo nents are down slightly. Federal Government Federal purchases of goods and services, as noted earlier, are particularly sensitive to the years selected in making compari sons. This is largely because of the volatile nature of defense expenditures but also reflects, in nondefense Federal purchases, the buildup and leveling off of the space program. Nondefense purchases. Total Federal non defense purchases increased very rapidly during 1955-68 (7.6 percent a year) (table 35). However, because of the peaking out of the space program, these purchases only grew at 2.7 percent a year during 1965-72. Table 35. Defense purchases. Defense outlays in real terms are projected to increase moderately through 1985, although steadily declining Federal Government purchases of goods and services, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Billions of 1963 dollars Category Projected 1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 Federal Government purchases of goods and s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $5 4.7 $ 5 7 .6 $5 6.5 $64.1 $6 2 .5 $8 4.4 $6 9.4 $6 5.7 $ 6 5.7 $80.1 $8 8.9 Defense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N ondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 .9 6.8 49.3 8.3 48.4 8.1 50.6 13.5 46.9 15.7 66 .9 17.5 54.0 15.4 48 .0 17.7 46 .7 18.9 54 .3 25 .8 59.0 29.8 Average annual rates of change ' Projected 1955-68 Federal Governm ent purchases of goods and s e rv ic e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D efense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1965-72 1972-80 1968-85 3.4 0.7 2.5 0.3 -0 .4 2.1 2.6 7.6 -.1 2.7 1.9 3.9 -.7 3.2 -1 .7 3.3 1.7 2.9 Compound interest rates between term in al years. SOURCE: 1968-80 1980-85 Econom ic Analysis,converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; H isto rical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. 67 as a proportion of GNP. The rates of in crease in 1972-80 and 1980-85 arelessthan one-half the growth in real GNP. They are also less than the growth in 1955-68 (table 35). Total outlays for military activities and all Atomic Energy Commission func tions are projected at about $54 billion in 1980 and $59 billion in 1985 (1963 dollars). The 1980 level approximates that of 1970, although the distribution of outlays between personnel compensation and purchases is substantially different. Expenditures for the compensation of military personnel and Fed eral civilian workers are about $6 billion lower (in real terms) in 1980 than in 1970, while purchases of equipment and services are correspondingly higher. However, de fense levels in 1980 and 1985 account for a little more than 4 percent of GNP as com pared to 7 percent in 1970 and somewhat more than 6 percent in 1972. The projected levels of expenditure in 1980 and 1985 assume that international conditions continue at about the current level of tension and that the United States will maintain its current defense posture. However, defense is expected to face heavy budgetary competition from priority civilian programs in this period. In addition, defense costs, in current dollars, are expected to in crease substantially throughout this period, providing a major constraint on defense purchases in real terms. In spite of a reduc tion and leveling off of both military and civilian manpower, current dollar personnel costs are expected to rise as the Depart ment of Defense maintains an acceptable volunteer force and as retired pay greatly increases. Personnel costs, including re tired pay, are expected to exceed 50 per cent of the current-dollar defense budget by 1980. Equipment costs are also expected to rise as weapons systems become pro gressively more sophisticated and expen sive, in spite of current efforts to halt this trend. As a result, it is expected that equip ment purchases will be moderately re stricted through 1980. It is assumed that the procurement of new weapon systems will be spread out over longer time periods, with greater emphasis on research and development and fuller weapons testing prior to large-scale procurement. The out lay level assumed for 1980, therefore, pro vides for modernization of existing forces, with moderate expansion in some areas, but at slower rates than in the past. Defense manpower levels for 1980 and 1985 are projected to be consistent with current trends, increasing costs of the volun teer Armed Forces and the use of more sophisticated weapons. The Armed Forces are assumed to drop to 2 million by 1980 and remain at that level through 1985. This is somewhat below the forces level of 2.3 million in 1973 and well below the 3.2 million average for 1970. The number of Federal civilian workers in defense activi ties is assumed to level off at 900,000 be fore 1980 and to remain at that level through 1985. This level is somewhat be low the 1970 average of about 1 million. These projected manpower levels were used to project compensation in 1980 and 1985. In addition, they were used as a basis for projecting defense purchases from a num ber of industries. Manpower levels were the controlling factor in estimating pur chases of a number of consumable pro ducts and services, such as food and clothing. Other industry purchases were pro jected by first projecting overall force struc tures by mission, such as strategic or general purpose forces. These provided a general basis for projecting outlays re quired for force replacement and expansion. Current plans for major new weapons sys tems, with extended development and pro curement run-out times, were also studied, particularly for their effect on the 1980 estimates. Constraints, such as internation al arms limitation agreements, were also considered. All projected purchases were referenced to a 1970 base period and to current (1973) levels of defense purchases and force structures. Strategic offensive forces are projected to continue at about their current level, but with extensive modernization continu ing through 1980. Arms limitation agree ments are expected to limit the number of offensive units, but not their striking power. The three-way reliance on strategic landbased missiles, submarine-launched mis siles, and bombers is expected to continue, 68 but with a reduced role for manned bomb ers. Conversion of all Minuteman I and II missiles to the Minuteman III configura tion with multiple warheads is assumed to occur through 1980. The Trident sub marine and missile program is assumed to proceed at an unaccelerated pace, with substantial procurement of both the sub marine and an advanced missile continuing into 1980. Final development of the B-l bomber is assumed to proceed slowly, with limited procurement in small numbers be ginning in the late 1970’s. In addition, a small mobile land-based missile system is assumed to be deployed by 1980. Strategic defensive forces are assumed to remain at about current levels with some modernization of aircraft and early warning radar. The antiballistic missile sys tems are assumed to progress slowly in fur ther development, with deployment re stricted by arms agreements. Expenditures on research and development and equip ment purchases of early warning electronics for defense are assumed to be high through 1980. Replacement of air defense aircraft is assumed to be moderate. General purpose ground combat forces are expected to remain relatively stable through 1980 due to levels of readiness developed during the Vietnam war. How ever, it is assumed that capability, in terms of mobility and firepower, will increase. General purpose naval forces are assumed to be still engaged in a substantial moderni zation program through 1980. Outlays to replace obsolete Navy ships and to improve missile warfare capability at sea are assumed to be high through 1980. Research and development and equipment purchases for antisubmarine warfare are assumed to continue at a high level, affecting ship building, aircraft, and electronics purchases. Tactical and transport aircraft requirements are expected to continue at about current levels. These assumptions on force levels and structures provided the basis for estimating purchases from major defense-oriented in dustries in 1980 and 1985. Total purchases of military hardware and other goods and services are projected to increase over 1970 (in 1963 dollars) by about $6 billion in 1980 and almost $11 billion in 1985. Major increases over 1970 are projected for guided missiles, shipbuilding, and electronics and communications equipment while conven tional ordnance and aircraft purchases are projected to decline. Missile purchases are projected to be about one-third higher than the 1970 level in 1980 and about twothirds higher in 1985. Shipbuilding outlays are projected at substantially above the 1970 level in 1980, while falling off some what in 1985. This high level in 1980 assumes a spread-out procurement of Tri dent submarines, a large requirement for surface missile ships, and a continued shift of construction from Navy to private ship yards. Electronics and communications equipment purchases are assumed to be about a third higher in 1980 than in i970, and about 50 percent higher in 1985. On the other hand, conventional ordnance is projected at about two-thirds the 1970level in both 1980 and 1985, or slightly above current levels of procurement. Aircraft pur chases are projected above current levels, but somewhat below the 1970 level in 1980, and only marginally higher in 1985. 69 Chapter 4. Projection of Input-Output Tables In the previous chapter, the detailed pro jections of demand were discussed. To trans late this demand into output by industry, an input-output table is used. The projection of these tables is the focal point of this chapter. First some conventions of inputoutput analysis are discussed. Then the coefficients are discussed from the points of view of factors which can affect coefficients. The final sections review coefficient change by industry and discuss alternative tech nological possibilities. The 1970 input-output table in this pub lication has implicit all of the foregoing conventions plus those added by BLS in preparing the data. Obviously, the 1980 and 1985 models have the same conven tions as the basic 1963 and 1970 tables from which they were derived plus the limitations added by the projection pro cess.5 The projections in this publication 3 must be viewed as those numbers which would result if a 1980 or 1985 census were taken in the same way as in 1963, with the same processing rules as in 1963, and pro cessed into an input-output table for 1980 and 1985 with the same procedures and rules as were used in preparing the 1963 input-output table. Conventions of tables Input-output tables used. Four input-output tables underlie the data in this publication. The 1963 input-output table of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U. S. Department of Commerce is the basic source used in these projections. From this BLS estimated a 1970 input-output table and developed projected input-output tables for 1980 and 1985 (all in 1963 dollars). The 1963 input-output table is based in large part on the 1963 economic cen suses.5 These censuses used certain con 1 ventions and had specific limitations. The census data were processed into a 1963 transactions matrix by BEA, again with certain rules, conventions, and limita tions.5 2 Input-output conventions affecting coeffi cient change. Over time, the input-output coefficients of an economy can and do change for several basic reasons — changes in product mix, changes in relative prices, and technological change. Changes in pro duct mix can occur for a large number of reasons, such as fashion or taste. In addi tion, there are technical reasons peculiar to the input-output charts which cause such changes. 53If, for example, these data are compared with simi lar data prepared from a 1958 or 1967 base BEA table, there would be some important differences. For examples in the 1958 table prepared by BEA, imported autos were considered to be transferred imports whereas the 1963 51 Economic censuses cover mining, manufacturing, BEA tables considered imported autos to be a direct allocation to final demand. The 1963 censuses covered agriculture, transportation, trade, and selected services. transportation while the 1958 census did not. Therefore, Recently a census of construction has been added to this we can assume that the 1963 transportation sector in group. the 1963 input-output table is a better estimate than 52In input-output usage, three tables have become was possible in the 1958 table. It is of interest that the standard: (1 ) the transactions table, which shows the 1967 table from BEA will benefit from the 1967 Census sales and purchases by each industry to or from all of Construction. In 1958 and 1963 the censuses did not other industries or to final markets; (2 ) the direct coef cover the construction industries. These few examples ficients table, which shows the purchases per dollar of do not, of course, exhaust the differences. They should output by each industry; and (3 ) the total requirements make clear that differences, both of definition and data table, which shows direct and indirect requirements per availability, exist between apparently similar tables. dollar of final demand for each industry. 70 shift from open-hearth furnaces to basic oxygen furnaces in the steel industry.5 5 This technological change can introduce direct change in input coefficients or it can have an impact on relative prices which in turn affect the coefficients. Second, in an input-output table, industries are aggre gated. Since this is true, coefficient change can occur as a result of a change in the quantity of one product or industry com pared to the other(s). This can occur either through changes in product (output) mix or input mix. At the level of industry de tail (134 sectors) in which these projections are prepared, many coefficient changes are primarily due to other than technological causes. Without detailed analysis in each instance no assumptions concerning the cause of the change should be made. In theory an input-output table for an economy can be stated in physical terms. For example, the output of the coal industry could be shown in actual tons of coal used by each consuming industry. Similarly, all other industries would sell their product as physical quantities of the goods (or ser vices) they produce. Coefficients in such an input-output table would be unequivocal — so many tons of coal per ton of steel, so many tons of steel per car, etc. Unfortunate ly the problems inherent in preparing a "physical” table make it almost impossible on a national scale. One such problem is multiplicity of industries and units of pro duction. For example, there are many kinds of steel, each different in price and quality. There is also the problem of defining a physical unit. For example, what is the physical unit of medical services, or bank output? A partial solution is to use, for a given year, the current-dollar value of the transaction. This has a number of advan tages. Dollars permit any degree of industry aggregation; dollars also permit handling of many other problems such as those involv ing primary and secondary products and imports. In many cases, an industry pro duces not only products* (or services) pri mary to it, but may also produce products (or services) primary to other industries, that is, secondary products.5 The treat 4 ment used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and followed here records a "trans fer,” that is, an artificial sale, of secondary products to the primary industry as an input. As a result, in the input-output table, the primary industry thus "makes” and sells all of the primary products to users and consumers. Projection of coefficients The major macroeconomic assumptions used in making these projections were dis cussed in the introduction. This section will give the underlying technological assump tions in the area of energy use. The general effects of coefficient change are then discussed. Overall, it was assumed that the techni cal relationships change gradually over time and that these changes would be reflected by degrees in the direct coefficient. Thus, it might be said that the projected changes in input-output coefficients in most cases are evolutionary in process rather than revolu tionary. The dramatic technological break through is difficult to predict, and usually still takes a long period to diffuse widely. In general, the higher the level of industry aggregation, the more limited is the effect of the average technological change on the coefficients of an input-output table.5 6 Coefficient change over time. As used in this report, technological change encom passes two different types of change. First, technological change refers to a real change in production technique, for example, the 5 5 An apparent change in production technique may actually be a response to the scale of production. In general, the scale factor is considered to be a constant in these projections. 56At a 100-industry level of detail, changes in coef ficients are very gradual and are difficult to detect over any short period of time. A t a 1,000-industry level of detail, they would be more common, and in some in stances dramatic. 54 An establishment is classified in a given industry if more than 50 percent of its dollar output is of pro ducts primary to that industry. All other products of that establishment are call ed secondary products. Such second ary products are, of course, primary to another industry. 71 Energy assumptions. Energy assumptions can affect projections of demand in terms of consumer purchases of gasoline or electrici ty. By the same token energy assumptions have implications for input-output coeffi cients because industry also purchases gaso line and electric energy. The magnitude of the energy problem required that a balanced set of energy supply projections be incor porated into the study, covering both final demand and input-output coefficients. The energy assumptions used in developing these input-output projections are based on the Department of the Interior report United States Energy Through the Year 2000, December 1972. This report traces the flow of raw energy forms — crude pe troleum, natural gas, and coal — through the extraction, refining, and distribution pro cesses. It was assumed that the United States is fixed into its current pattern of energy consumption until 1985 and that domestic production of fossil fuels would be supplemented by higher import levels and a limited addition to production from syn thetic gas and oil in the 1980-85 period. At the same time, for refined products, the limited amount of domestic refinery capa city presently available or forecast to be operational before 1980 requires that re fined petroleum products constitute a grow ing proportion of petroleum imports till 1980. In the 1980-85 period petroleum im ports are assumed to be evenly divided between petroleum products and crude petroleum. Rapid changes in the energy situation over the past year have outdated some of these energy assumptions. BLS is now eval uating the longrun energy situation to de termine the implications of alternative energy assumptions for coefficient change as well as for the composition of final demand. Table 36. Average coefficient change, selected industries, selected periods, actual and projected, 1963-85 Industry 1 Livestock and livestock p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Crops and other agricultural p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Coal m in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Crude p e tro le u m. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 M aintenance and repair c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Logging, sawm ills, and planing m ills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Plastic m aterials and synthetic ru b b e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Synthetic fib e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Plastic products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 49 Blast furnaces and basic steel p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Electric lighting and w irin..... g 81 Electronic co m ponents .......... 93 Railroad tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . 97 Air tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Com m unications, except radio and T V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Electric u tilitie.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 Gas u tilitie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . s 112 Miscellaneous business services 114 Miscellaneous professional services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 .3 - 1.0 -0 .4 -0 .9 75.1 80.9 99.7 - .8 -1 .1 - .8 - .7 -2 .7 -2 .2 - .3 1.6 -2 .3 71 .3 -3 .8 -4 .3 -5 .0 93.1 -1 .4 -1 .2 -1 .1 89 .4 95 .6 93.1 .9 4.9 10.8 1.4 1.2 4.4 2.5 .8 -.6 95.1 75 .9 82 .4 65 .5 58.1 -1 .5 1.4 6.0 -2 .2 11.5 -1 .9 1.3 2.0 -3 .3 4.8 -1 .2 1.8 1.2 -3 .2 3.8 49 .5 52.7 67 .0 8 0 .5 4.2 1.5 .7 1.5 2.8 -1 .7 3.3 2.9 1.3 -1 .6 2.8 77.4 3.7 1.2 2.3 2.5 1 Compound interest rates between terminal years. Data represent the average annual rates of change of the weighted coefficients along the row of the input-output table involved i.e., for each of the industries shown be ing measured as a seller. The output weights are for domestic production in the beginning year. NOTE: In d u stry num bers refer to s e c to rin g plan shown in appendix table A-2. S O U R C E: Bureau of Labor Statistics. mediate output as a percentage of total output. The remaining columns show the weighted coefficient change for different time periods in terms of average annual rates. For example, for industry 8, coal mining, intermediate output is shown as 80.9 percent of total output in 1970. Be tween 1963 and 1970 and between 1970 and 1980 the coefficients decline. This im plies that industries which buy coal will be buying less per unit (in this case per dol lar) of production. This does not necessari ly mean that coal output will decline. The actual output of coal is projected to rise be cause the growth of the industries consum ing coal will exceed the decline in coal Effects of coefficient change. Two aspects of coefficient change are presented here. The first summarizes the net effect of coef ficient change on the industries producing intermediate goods and services. The sec ond separates the effects of coefficient change on an industry’s output from the effects of changes in final demand. In table 36, the first column shows inter- Average annual Interm ediate rates of change 1 outpu t as percent of Projected total output, 19 63 -70 19 70 -80 1980-85 1970 72 In examining these tables one notes at least two types of industries. One is a finaldemand-oriented industry such as comput ers (industry 71 in table 37) where almost all of the change in output from 1963 to 1970 is attributable to changes in final de mand. A second type of industry is, for example, plastic products (industry 44 in table 37) where the changes in output are due both to changes in demand and in input-output coefficients. Thus, the plastic products industry is increasing its output both as inputs into other sectors and as end products. Table 37. Industries with significant changes in output, 1963-70 (Based on data in 1963 dollars) Percent change Industry Total Change Change due Change Rank change due to to final due to in output co efficient demand interaction changes changes 87 Miscellaneous transportation eq uipm ent. ......... 44 Plastic products... . 97 Air tra n s p o rtatio n .... 71 Computers and p e ripheral equipment. 81 Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Photographic eq u ip ment and supplies. 78 Radio and TV sets... 90 Optical and ophthalm ic goods.. 79 Telephone and te le graph apparatus.... . 19 Other ordnance.... NOTE: table A-2. SOURCE: 1 2 3 20 8.3 186.0 171.5 3.3 104.0 67.7 20 1.9 42 .0 81 .9 3.1 40 .0 21 .9 4 134.1 - 1.5 140.5 -4 .9 5 130.6 49 .0 64.4 17.2 6 7 119.6 112.3 32.5 6.2 76 .4 105.2 10.7 .9 8 112.0 22.6 74.9 14.5 9 10 108.4 107.4 20.1 -6 .4 77.4 117.1 10.9 -3 .3 Review of coefficient change by industry A change in an intermediate input coeffi cient affects both the producing and the consuming industry. The following section examines coefficient change viewed as in dustry output, that is, along the row. (See appendix tables B-19 through B-21.) Thus an increase in the average row coefficients Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix Bureau of Labor Statistics. input per dollar of output — resulting in an overall increase in coal production. The growth in the coal industry coefficients be tween 1980 and 1985 can be explained by the higher utilization of coal in electric energy projected for this period along with or partly as a result of coal gasification. (Data for all industries are shown in appen dix table B-22.) In input-output analysis, output can change because of changes in input-output coefficients or from changes in final demand. In separating the contributions of coeffi cient change and final demand change, an additional element is the interaction of these two factors. In the tables presenting these data the interaction factor is shown sep arately. Three tables (tables 37-39) show the industries with the largest changes in output for three time periods— 1963-70, projected 1970-80, and projected 1980-85 — and the factoring of the change in output into the elements described above — that contributed by change in input-output coef ficients, that contributed by change in final demand, and the interaction. Similar data for 129 industries in the same time periods are shown in appendix tables B-19-B-21. Table 38. Industries with significant projected changes in output, 1970-80 (Based on data in 1963 dollars) Percent change Industry Total Change Change due Change to final due to Rank change due to in o utpu t co efficien t demand interaction changes changes 71 Computers and p e ripheral equipm ent 1 87 Miscellaneous transportatio n eq uipm ent. ......... 2 37 Plastic m aterials and synthetic ru b b e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 97 Air tra n s p o rtatio n ... 4 5 44 Plastic products .... 85 Ship and boat b u ild ing and repair ..... . 6 73 Service industry 7 m a c h in e s........... 91 Photographic eq u ip m ent and supplies.. • 8 72 Typew riters and other offic e 9 m a c h in e s........... 14 New public utilities co n s tru c tio n ....... 10 NOTE: table A-2. SOURCE: 73 185.6 2.0 182.3 1.3 165.9 .1 16 5.8 0 161.7 14 8.0 14 4.0 55.5 37 .0 47.2 70 .6 86.1 68 .6 35 .6 24 .9 28 .2 139.2 -2 .4 142.9 1.3 132.9 30 .3 80 .9 21.7 124.0 15.5 98 .3 10.3 12 1.6 1.9 118.5 1.2 119.8 0 119.8 0 Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix Bureau of Labor S tatistics. is the declining importance of natural fibers such as cotton and wool produced in the agriculture sectors, due to the increased use of synthetic fibers in the textile and apparel industries. Table 39. Industries with significant projected changes in output, 1980-85 (Based on data in 1963 dollars) Percent change Industry Total Change Change due Change Rank change due to to final due to in output co efficien t demand interactio n changes changes Mining. The decline in the iron ore (industry 5) coefficient results from the increased pro cessing or enrichment of iron ore after it is 41.4 97 Air tra n s p o rta tio n .. 1 16.5 21 .8 3.1 mined, that is, the exhaustion of good do 91 Photographic mestic natural iron ore which contained 50eq uipm ent and 4 1 .4 2 7 .3 2.3 s u p p lie s . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 11.7 55 percent iron resulted in heavy use of 7 O ther nonferrous taconite ores which contain less iron ore in 18.4 4 .3 m etal ore m ining.. 3 37.7 15.0 the natural state. However, after treatment, 71 Com puters and peripheral the processed ores will contain approximate . 36.5 .1 35 .8 .6 e q u ip m e n t . . . . . . . . 4 ly 65 percent iron. These estimates assume 81 Electronic that even greater enrichment of iron ore will 23 .4 1.7 c o m p o n e n ts ...... 5 32.6 7.5 32.4 13.2 16.8 2.5 8 Coal m in in g. . . . . . . . 6 . tend to decrease the amount of ore required 79 Telephone and tele in a blast furnace charge. graph ap paratus... 7 31.9 9.3 20 .6 2.1 The nonferrous metalore mining industry 112 Miscellaneous 19.5 1.9 business services. 8 31 .5 10.1 (industry 7) shows a marked increase in 30 .9 101 Electric u tilitie s .... 9 9.9 19.3 1.6 the proportion of the change in output ac -.1 -.1 30.9 31 .0 119 H o sp itals........... 10 . counted for by coefficient change. This is NOTE: Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix explained by a projected increase in the use ta b le A -2. of aluminum scrap in the manufacturing of SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics . aluminum and other improvements in the production process. The major trend ac counting for the coefficient increase be for an industry implies that more is being tween 1980 and 1985 is the projected used per dollar of output by other industries increase in demand for uranium ore for using its output, while a decline implies the processing into nuclear fuel. opposite. The decline in the coal coefficients (in dustry 8) can be attributed to three fac Agriculture. Overall, the coefficients in the tors: a continuation of a long-term decline agriculture sectors show a decline (except in the use of coal as a heating fuel; a de for the agriculture, forestry, and fishery cline in the relative importance of coal in services industry (industry 4) in 1980. The the generation of electricity and in steel increase in this coefficient in 1980 can be making; and increased efficiency of coal attributed to input-output accounting con utilization in these industries. This decline ventions concerning the handling of pur is further reinforced by the impact of en chases from State and local governments vironmental protection regulations, al by the intermediate sectors and final de though the existing energy situation makes mand categories). The decline in the coef such an assumption open to question. ficients in the agriculture sectors can be Since over 80 percent of the total output attributed to a decline in the relative im of the crude petroleum extraction industry portance of agriculture’s input into the agri (industry 9) is sold to the petroleum refin cultural processing industries. Increased ing industry (industry 42), this coefficient processing of the raw agricultural products dominates the row. The decline in this coef by the intermediate consuming industries to ficient is due to higher yields of petroleum products per barrel of crude oil. This im produce processed foods (such as frozen dinners) means that the agricultural raw proved yield has the effect (in constant materials are making up a declining share dollars) of reducing the crude coefficients. Basic to this assumption are refinery proof the total cost of food. A similar example 74 cesses such as catalytic cracking and ther mal cracking which increase the yield of high-value products per barrel of crude oil. At this point no lesser product yield due to environmental objectives was assumed. The projected increases in the chemical and fertilizer mining (industry 11) coeffi cients can be explained by increased use of these products for agriculture and for in dustrial chemicals which utilize sulfur and phosphate rock as inputs — two of the major outputs of this industry. The increase in the coefficients of the chemical products industry (industry 35) can be attributed to several factors. Some of these are the continued growth of basic chemicals such as sulfuric acid, etc., the increased importance of chemical input to the agricultural chemical industry, and the greater use of chemicals in steelmaking due to the increased importance of the oxygen process in the iron and steel industry. The increase in the agricultural chemi cals industry (industry 36) coefficients is due to the growing use of these products in farm applications. Their increasing use on the farm as fertilizers, insecticides, or fungicides is expected to continue. The plastic materials and synthetic rub ber industry (industry 37) coefficients show a large increase during the 1970-80 period and moderate growth from 1980 to 1985. This change from rapid to more moderate growth can be attributed to changes in two sub-industries, the rubber products industry (industry 43) and the plastic products in dustry (industry 44), which consume ap proximately 60 percent of the output of the plastic materials and synthetic rubber in dustry. During the 1980-85 period the growth of plastic products coefficients is assumed to slacken due to a slowdown in the growth of the use of plastic for endproduct applications. The coefficient increase in the synthetic fiber industry (industry 38) results from the increased use of knit goods in apparel manu facturing mentioned above. Knit goods are mainly composed of synthetic fibers, or blends of synthetic fibers and natural fibers. In addition, other uses of synthetic fibers such as in tire belts and cords and roller bearings will contribute to the increasing use of fiber and was a factor in the coef ficient increase projected in this industry. The plastic products industry (industry 44) shows a coefficient increase which is widespread throughout all of the interme diate uses. This increase is a continuation of the expansion of plastic products as well as their substitution for competitive mate rials such as metals. Examples are the increasing use of plastic products in build ing materials, home construction, and furni ture manufacturing. After 1980, the coeffi Construction. All new construction in the input-output tables is sold to final demand. Total output and final demand, therefore, are the same. The decline in the coeffi cient for maintenance construction is due to changes over time in maintenance re quirements arising from the use of pre finished surfaces and longer lasting paints. Also, maintenance tends to be a fixed cost, rising, not with production, but with the stock of structures. Thus, per dollar of out put, it declines. Nondurable goods manufacturing. No major changes are projected for the food industry (industry 20). However, by 1980, coeffi cients in this industry are projected to show a slight decrease due to improved process ing techniques. The rapid coefficient increase in the hosiery and knit goods sector (industry 24) can be attributed to a shift in consumer taste from finished apparel items made from woven natural fibers (wool and cot ton) to those made from synthetic fibers, especially synthetic knit goods. A large portion of the knit goods used in apparel is sold (or transferred as secondary pro ducts) from this industry to the apparel industry. Keeping this shift in mind, it can be readily understood how a change in con sumer taste for apparel items has affected the input of hosiery and knit goods to the apparel industry. In projecting the coeffi cients in the hosiery and knit goods in dustry, it was assumed that the rapid growth would taper off after 1970 and that the use of natural fibers would be con tinued in blends restricted to quality, topof-the-line, apparel items. 75 cients in this industry show a modest decline because of the high petroleum content of its products and the assumption that higher prices of petroleum will make plastic somewhat less competitive than it has been prior to this. The leather, footwear, and leather pro ducts industry (industry 45) shows a slight coefficient decline primarily due to the rela tive decline in the importance of leather inputs to all industries and the increasing use of synthetic materials in shoe manufac turing. In a previous set of projections pub lished by BLS it was assumed that the substitution of synthetic materials for leath er would take place. While such substitutes have never been fully accepted by consum ers, the amount of leather used in shoes has continued to decline due to the substi tution of synthetic materials for leather in shoe linings and in shoe soles and heels. trend is expected to continue. The phenomenal growth in the coefficients of the metal container industry (industry 58) from 1963 to 1970 is expected to slow by 1980 and to decline during the 1980-85 period. This growth pattern can be attri buted to increasing competition from plastic and glass containers and to possible re strictions on the use of disposable metal containers. Increases in service industry machine (industry 73) • coefficients can be attributed to the projected increased use of central air conditioning units produced in this industry for new housing and nonresidential construction. The electronics industry shows a large increase in intermediate coefficients. Some of this is attributable to an assumed growth in the use of electronic components in the automobile industry such as electronic igni tion parts and sensing mechanisms for fuel injection systems. Another contributing fac tor is the shift in output mix from tubes to complete solid state subassemblies. These subassemblies are finding wide acceptance in electronic switching devices and in com puter assemblies due to their high reliabil ity. Many industries are projected to in crease their use of these components. Durable goods manufacturing. The coeffi cients of logging, sawmills, and planing mills (industry 27) will decrease due to the relative decline in logging and sawmill products relative to the output of millwork, plywood, and other wood products (industry 28). Projected increased utilization of what was primarily wood waste tends to decrease coefficients. The growth of the intermediate coefficients of the plywood and millwork industry can be attributed to increasing use of preassembled housing components made in this industry and the growing uses of particle board and plywood in housing con struction. An overall general decline in the coeffi cients of blast furnaces and basic steel products (industry 49), iron and steel foundries (industry 50), and primary copper metals (industry 51) can be attributed to the substitution of aluminum, plastic, and lightweight steel for the output of these three industries in end-product applications. In general, the amount of steel used in automobiles has declined as plastic and aluminum have found wider acceptance for items such as decorative trim and grilles. In housing construction in recent years, there has been a trend toward replacing copper tubing and wiring with heat-resistant plastic piping and aluminum wiring; this Transportation. In general, less transporta tion services per unit of output are assumed to be required by producing industries. The air transportation industry (industry 97) is one exception to this general trend. Pro jected growth in business air travel and the use of air freight transportation in the move ment of such materials as critical inventory items and replacement parts account for the largest portion of the projected coeffi cient increase in this industry. Underlying this growth has been the development of larger planes which have greater potential for more economical operations. Communication. There are two divergent trends in the coefficients in the communica tion sector. The radio and TV broadcasting industry (industry 100) coefficients show a marked decline. Over 80 percent of this industry’s output is transferred to the ad vertising industry (industry 113) and the decline in this coefficient accounts for most 76 of the coefficient change. This apparent decline is due primarily to the definition of radio and TV output as the viewing or listening population. Since population changes are projected to be small, the pro jected gain in radio and television output (in constant dollars) is low. The rise in the coefficients for communi cations, except radio and TV (industry 99), can be attributed in part to the projected increase in electronic data transmission, caused by the growth in computer networks, cable TV, etc. Another factor is declining relative cost which, in addition to opening new markets, stimulates old markets to high growth rates. jection period. Two exceptions are miscella neous business services (industry 112) and miscellaneous professional services (indus try 114), which show coefficient increases. The coefficient growth in the business ser vice sector and the miscellaneous profes sional service sector is attributable in part to machine rentals, especially computers, and the complexity of the business environ ment and the need for outside professional advice. Alternative technological possibilities There are on the horizon a number of technological possibilities different from those assumed in the 1980 and 1985 pro jections and discussed in the preceding sec tion. It may be beneficial to highlight a few of these possibilities as an aid in assessing the current set of projections and the inputoutput coefficients in particular. Utilities. Two of the industries within the utilities sector show a reversal of long-term trends. While the consumption of electricity, gas, and water services will increase in absolute terms, only the electric utilities industry (industry 101) shows a significant coefficient increase. The decline in gas utili ty (industry 102) coefficients can be attri buted primarily to conversion from natural gas fuels to other fossil fuels due to the assumed limited supply and increases in the relative price of natural gas.5 It is 7 possible that the slight decline in the water and sanitary services coefficients may be reversed during the projection period. This reversal could occur if increased treatment of waste water and sewerage is done by the water and sanitary services sector instead of by consumer plant treatment systems. Energy. Energy self-sufficiency is not impli cit in these projections. The policy implicit in these estimates is that of large-scale dependence on imported petroleum. Even assuming that Mideast oil supplies become more secure, the United States is now defi nitely set on the course of energy selfsufficiency. Given the resources of the United States and presently available tech nology, this is a possible goal, albeit, per haps, expensive. A number of prospective approaches to energy self-sufficency are being explored. One is the conversion of coal to gas. There are already several plants being planned for this purpose and more can be expected.5 8 Other possibilities included conversion of coal into petroleum. A return to coal use by a number of utilities and other large heat and power users is a choice today in many plants. Other utility plants can be converted at nominal cost. Much of this will occur, though at a slackened pace if oil becomes available again. Such a return to coal would, of course, increase the coal-electric utilities coefficient. Services. The service industries are some of the most rapidly growing sectors of the economy. Included in this group are pro fessional services such as doctors, lawyers, and accountants, business consultants, and educational services. However, final users consume a significant portion of these ser vices, with an insignificant amount being purchased by intermediate users. There fore, in spite of the large overall growth in output projected for the services sector, the majority of the service sector industries show slight coefficient declines in the pro- 58 The new plants being planned are for the manufac ture of synthetic gas comparable to natural gas. Coalgas plants of long ago manufactured a much lower quali ty gas. 57 This assumption was part of the set of energy assumptions from the Department of the Interior. 77 period. It is doubtful that this process can be hastened sufficiently to make any signi ficant energy contribution in the next 10 or 15 years. Even further away is any use of fusion5 since the theoretical feasibility of 9 this process is still being tested. If feasible, this will possibly be the major source of energy after the year 2000. Concurrent with these developments there must be a much larger investment in coal mining and processing facilities. These will undoubtedly be more efficient than pre sent facilities and result in larger output per man. Difficulties in recruiting labor for this kind of work will accelerate purchases of equipment which increases tons of coal produced per man. Two major problems are present in re gard to coal mining. One relates to sulfur in coal. While eastern coals are available, they are often high in sulfur. Western coals are lower in sulfur although not free of this substance. Methods of economically remov ing the sulfur from coal prior to its release into the atmosphere during burning will make the more widespread use of coal a better alternative. The second problem is strip mining. Strip mining is widely prac ticed, primarily because, up until now, it has been cheaper. If restoration of stripped areas is required, it will narrow the cost difference between stripped and under ground coal. While improved technology can and will aid in rehabilitation of stripped areas, it is not reasonable to assume a complete amelioration of this problem. The concern about energy and the viabil ity of the assumptions used in these pro jections has been so extensive that the Bureau has committed itself to developing alternative 1980 and 1985 projections for examining differing energy assumptions. Automobile engines. One of the important technological assumptions of this set of pro jections specifies no major change in the internal combustion auto engine. At present the indications are that for some period this is quite likely. Although modifications of the internal combustion engine such as Wankel, diesel, and Rankin cycle are in various experimental stages, no clear alter native has emerged. Their adoption would generate smaller coefficient changes than would widespread adoption of electric, steam, or turbine engines. Implicit in these estimates is some decrease in the average size of cars. The impact would probably be on the level of auto output rather than on the coefficients. The projections have antici pated changes in transportation patterns such as a growth in local and commuter transit. Again, the output of the transit in dustries would be affected rather than the coefficients. It is true that changes in scale could give rise to coefficient change. Also, new capital equipment and new transit lines with their new technology will change the industry coefficients over time. But in the short-run the scale factor is the most sig nificant one. Atomic energy. Assuming that the petro leum crisis continues, it is possible that nuclear-fueled plants will come onstream somewhat more quickly. This would come about mainly from a shortened hearing and authorization process. The major element of delay — testing — is less amenable to shortcuts. If nuclear power plants are a more important factor than these projec tions assume, the input structure of the electric utility industry would be changed to the extent that nuclear plants require inputs that are different from those of other electric utilities. More funding could somewhat hasten development of the breeder reactor. A pilot breeder plant is now scheduled to go on stream towards the end of the projection Residential construction. In residential con struction no major new directions are assumed. Mobile homes are assumed to grow somewhat, relative to conventional construction. However, conventional con struction by conventional methods is assumed to predominate. Conceivably, the factory-built home, combining features of the mobile home and the conventionally 59Fusion is the physical process embodied in the hydrogen bomb. Fusion (as opposed to the Fission pro cess, which fuels current nuclear electric plants) is clean and has a relatively cheap and almost unlimited supply of raw material (deuterium). 73 constructed home, could become very signi ficant. Such factory-built homes already supply a portion of the market. To date, their cost advantage over more conven tional construction has been modest. In part this is due to the extent to which the so-called conventional builders purchase greater quantities of more highly fabricated products. Further, many larger builders operate assembly operations approximating a factory. As a result the unit cost differ ence between factory and conventional con struction has remained small. However, where this cost difference becomes sizable, the inputs to residential cost would change since the industry would be buying nearly complete houses, not lumber, glass, plumb ing fixtures, etc., as it does now. This discussion of alternative technologi cal possibilities is not meant to exhaust the list but to give the reader an under standing that such possibilities do exist and that in using these projections such develop ments should be considered. 79 Chapter 5. Projected Changes in Industrial Composition of Output, Productivity, Hours, and Employment In the previous chapters, the discussions have centered on the factors determining po tential output, the composition of income, tne structure of final demand by component as well as by industrial sector, and, finally, tn^ role of technology as measured by projected changes in input-output coeffi cients. These subjects provide the neces sary background for this chapter’s discus sions of output, productivity, average week ly hours, and employment by industry. In the following sections the many assump tions and projections previously presented are discussed in the context of their impact on the detailed industry projections of out put and employment. The first part of this chapter discusses the output projections at the major sector level, followed by a look at selected in dustries. Next productivity and average hours are discussed. The final section dis cusses the employment projections at the major sector level and for selected in dustries. nating in the total private economy6 is 1 projected to grow only 3.3 percent annually. Thus, for 1980-85, most sectors are ex pected to grow more slowly than in 1955-68 or in the projected period 1968-80. However, within this overall trend, shifts in the rela tive importance of output among the major producing sectors will take place. These shifts in sector growth rates can best be observed by using a percent distri bution of gross product originating by ma jor sector (chart 6). A comparison of these relative movements provides an indication of the shifts in the output of the major sec tors from 1955 to 1972 and projected shifts for 1980 and 1985. In general the movement of historical as well as projected output shares can be char acterized as a steady movement away from agriculture toward the nonagricultural sec tors. Within the nonagricultural sector, the output shares move between manufacturing and nonmanufacturing in a cyclical pattern. Manufacturing has historically accounted for 30.8 to 33.6 percent of the toted private economy’ s output. The lower percentage re Output flects the recession of 1958-59 when the low levels of domestic investment and con Sector distribution of real output. The out sumer durable expenditures affected the put of the total private economy,6 in real 0 level of manufacturing. The higher percent terms, is projected to expand at an annual age reflects the defense spending of the rate of 4.3 percent between 1968 and 1980. Vietnam war and unusually high consumer This rate is faster than the 1955-68 growth expenditures on durable goods. Manufac rate of 3.8 percent a year. (See table 40.) turing, particularly durable goods manufac Thus, other things being equal, most sectors turing, is projected to grow faster between are projected to grow at a rate faster than 1968 and 1980 than in 1955-68 in spite of their trend during 1955-68. However, be the decline in the relative importance of tween 1980 and 1985 gross product origimilitary production. This output accelera tion reflects the projected demand for pro60 The discussion of output is limited to the private sector because real output in the government sector is simply the wages and salaries of government employees stated in base-year prices — in this case 1963 dollars. Thus, adding government does not contribute to the analysis of real output change. 61 Gross product originating is the measure of value added by an industry or sector. It is an unduplicated measure of output in that the summation of all sectors’ value added is equal to gross national product. 80 Table 40. Gross product originating ' in total private economy by major sector, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Projected Sector 1955 1958 1959 1963 1968 1965 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 Billions of 1 9 63 dollars . Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A gricu lture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N ona griculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ons truc tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transportation, com m unication, and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Government en te rp ris e .s......... Rest of the world plus statistical discrepancy......... . $419 .9 19.8 400.1 10.1 35.1 140.9 81 .4 59.5 $ 4 2 8 .4 19.7 408.7 9.8 34.9 131.9 71.0 60.9 $ 4 5 8 .2 19.9 4 3 8 .3 10.2 37.3 147.3 81.0 66.3 $ 5 3 2 .3 21 .5 51 0 .8 11.0 37.0 171 0 95.9 75.1 $600.1 22.4 57 7.7 11.8 39.7 20 0 .0 115.1 84.9 $ 6 8 5 .2 22.1 663.1 13.0 40 .3 22 9.6 131.9 97.7 $ 7 00 .7 23.4 67 7.2 13.6 39.8 2 2 8.9 125.9 103.0 $ 7 2 5 .0 24 .6 70 0.4 13.3 40 .6 2 3 4.6 127.5 107.1 37.3 20 .8 7.7 8.8 68.7 22.9 45 .8 39.6 20.1 9.2 10.3 71.9 24.8 47.1 42.1 21 .2 9.8 11.1 77.3 27 .2 50.1 50.5 23 .9 12.7 13.9 88 .5 32.7 55 .8 57.5 27 .0 14.9 15.6 99 .9 36.9 63.0 69.1 31 .6 19.0 18.5 114.6 44 .6 70.0 75.8 32 .5 22.9 20.4 120.0 4 /.0 73.0 79 .2 33 .0 24 .3 21 .9 124.8 4 8 .8 76.0 84 .8 34.7 26 .7 23 .4 132.8 51.8 81 .0 137.1 54 3 47 .3 35.5 191.9 77.3 11 4.6 16 8.8 63 .3 60 .6 44 .9 2 1 7.6 88 .3 129.3 56 .9 47 .9 6.4 63.9 53.9 6.2 66.2 56.8 6.4 80.1 66 .0 7.0 89.5 72.9 8.5 102.5 83.1 11.2 103.7 8 7 .5 11.6 107.5 88 .0 11.7 113.1 91 7 13.4 173.9 15 0.8 18.8 2 1 0 .0 182.0 22 .6 -3 .2 - 3.4 5.3 -.3 -2 .1 -3 .7 .7 3.3 - - .3 $ 7 7 2 8 $ 1 ,1 3 8 .6 23 .2 23 .9 749.5 1,114 .7 13.4 14.9 41 .8 53.3 37 5.9 255.1 140.1 222.1 115.0 15 3.8 - $ 1 ,3 4 1 .5 25.1 1,316 .4 15.1 58 .0 4 3 7 .6 2 5 9 .3 178.3 .9 4.7 Percent distribution Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A gricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N onagriculture ................... ......... M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C onstruction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n d u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transportation, com m unication, and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Government e n te rp ris e .s......... Rest of the world plus statistical discrepancy......... . 100.0 4.7 95 .3 2.4 8.4 33.6 19.4 14.2 100.0 4.6 95.4 2.3 8.2 30.8 16.6 14.2 100.0 4.3 95.7 2.2 8.1 32.2 17.7 14.5 100.0 4.0 96 .0 2.1 7.0 32.1 18.0 14.1 100.0 3.7 96 .3 2.0 6.6 33 .3 19.2 14.2 100.0 3.2 96 .8 1.9 5.9 33 5 19.2 14.3 100.0 3.3 96.7 1.9 5.7 37.7 18.0 14.7 100.0 3.4 96 .6 1.8 5.6 32.4 17.6 14.8 100.0 3.0 97 .0 1.7 5.4 33 .0 18.1 14.9 100.0 2.1 97 .9 1.3 47 33 0 19 5 13.5 100.0 19 98.1 1.1 4.3 32.6 19 .3 13.3 8.9 5.0 1.8 2.1 16.4 5.5 10.9 9.2 4.7 2.2 2.4 16.8 5.8 11.0 9.2 4.6 2.1 2.4 16.9 5.9 10.9 9.5 4.5 2.4 2.6 16.6 6.1 10.5 9.6 4.5 2.5 2.6 16.7 6.2 10.5 10.1 4.6 2.8 2.7 16.7 6.5 10.2 10.8 4.6 3.3 2.9 17.1 6.7 10.4 10.9 4.6 3.3 3.0 17.2 6.7 10.5 11.0 4.5 3.5 3.0 17.2 6.7 10.5 120 4.8 4.2 3.1 16.9 6.8 10.1 12.6 4.5 4.5 3.4 16.2 6.6 9.6 13.6 11.4 1.5 14.9 12.6 1.5 14.5 12.4 1.4 15.1 12.4 1.3 14.9 12.2 1.4 15.0 12.1 1.6 14.8 12.6 1.7 14.8 12.1 1.6 14.6 11.9 1.7 15.2 13.2 1.7 15.7 13.6 1.7 -.8 - .8 - 1.2 .1 -.3 0 - .5 .1 .4 See footnotes at end of table. 81 - 1 Table 40. Gross product originating 1 in total private economy by major sector, selected years 195 572 and projected for 1980 and 1985—Continued Average annual rates of change 2 Sector Projected 19 55 -68 Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N ona griculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tran sportation, com m unication, and public u tilitie s............... . . T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................ C o m m u n ic a tio n Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Government e n te rp ris e .s......... 1 9 59 -68 1965-72 1972-80 1968-85 19 68 -80 1930-85 3.8 .8 4.0 2.0 1.1 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.6 1.2 4.7 2.7 .9 5.1 5.6 4.4 3.7 .5 3.8 1.8 .7 3.5 2.8 4.4 5.0 .4 5.1 1.3 3.1 5.0 5.9 3.7 4.0 .8 4.1 .9 2.2 3.9 4.1 3.6 4.3 .7 4.4 1.1 2.4 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.3 1.0 3.4 .3 1.7 3.1 3.2 3.0 4.9 3.3 7.2 5.9 4.0 5.3 3.3 5.7 4.5 7.6 5.8 4.5 5.6 3.8 5.7 3.6 8.7 6.0 4.2 5.0 3.7 6.2 5.8 7.4 5.3 4.7 5.1 4.4 5.4 4.2 7.1 5.4 3.8 4.1 3.7 5.9 4.6 7.9 5.6 4.4 4.7 4.2 4.2 3.1 5.1 4.8 2.5 2.7 2.4 4.6 4.3 4.4 5.0 4.3 6.4 3.4 3.3 6.7 5.4 6.4 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.2 4.5 5.1 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.8 1 Gross product originating represents the value added by an industry a fte r costs of m aterials and secondary products made in other industries have been su btracted from to tal output. 2 Compound interest rates between term inal years. ducers’ durable equipment as well as continued strong growth in consumer dur ables. On the other hand, the sector shares of both nondurable and durable goods manufacturing are projected to decline be tween 1980 and 1985, reflecting the influ ence of the declining shares of consumer expenditures for goods and of national de fense expenditures in total final demand. For the nonmanufacturing sectors, the projected 1980 and 1985 output estimates show a continuation of the declines in the output shares of mining and construction and the increases in the shares of communi cation, public utilities, and finance, insur ance, and real estate. Transportation is pro jected to maintain the same share it has held historically. The output shares of the three remaining sectors, other services, wholesale trade, and retail trade, are pro jected to increase only slightly to 1980 and to decline between 1980 and 1985 as the growth in goods, particularly durable goods, moderates. The retail trade sector’s share has been approximately 10.5 percent of the SOURCE: H istorical data from U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce, Bureau Econom ic analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statisti projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. total private economy but this is projected to decline in both 1980 and 1985, again re flecting the declining percentage of personal expenditures for consumer goods relative to services. The output share of other ser vices is projected to rise to 13.6 percent of the private economy by 1985, although historically it has ranged between 11.4 and 12.6 percent and in general has shown only a modest increase over the 1955-68 period. The projected increase in other services reflects both the strong growth of consumer expenditures on services for 1968-80, the growth in intermediate demand for business and professional services, and the declining importance of defense expenditures in final demand. Between 1980 and 1985 the in crease for other services is a function of the declining percentage of expenditures on goods. Projected changes for selected industries. Moving from the viewpoint of major sectors to a consideration of individual industries, the projected average annual rates of 82 C h a rt 6 Gross Product Originating, Total Private Economy, by M ajor Sector, 1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 ,1 9 7 2 , and Projected for 19 8 0 and 1985 Percent distribution Includes mining, government enterprises, and rest of the world industry plus statistical discrepancy. 83 Percent change in domestic output for 1968-80 vary from a slight decline to a growth of almost 10 percent a year.6 On the other hand, for 2 the projected period 1980-85, the upper range of industry expansion is only slightly more than 7 percent a year. This projected deceleration for 1980-85 relative to 1968-80 occurs in all but a few industries and re flects the slowing of the overall rate of growth in the economy after 1980. The 1968-80 and 1980-85 growth trends for the detailed industries are compared, generally, with the historical period 195968 rather than with the 1955-68 period be cause of data limitations. Detailed output data by sector in a consistent series are not available prior to 1958. However, using 1959-68 as a comparison period creates a problem because the total private economy grew by 4.6 percent a year during the period compared with 3.8 percent a year during 1955-68. Thus, although the pre vious discussion has centered on the point that the projections for 1968-80 show an increase over the historical rate, when 195968 is the base, the 1968-80 projections will imply a slowing for many sectors. For 1959-68, changes in output in all industries varied from a slight decline to an increase of just over 14 percent a year.6 3 These rates are of course influenced by the choice of terminal years for comparison. The 1959-68 trend reflects both the low level of the 1958-59 recession and the high level of Vietnam war spending in 1968. As a result, projected growth rates between 1968 and 1980 appear low by comparison (table 41). The most rapidly expanding industry for 1968-80 is miscellaneous transportation equipment (industry 87), which covers mo bile homes. Other industries in the most rapidly expanding group for 1968-80 are computers and peripheral equipment, air transportation, plastic products, communi cations (which includes telecommunica- Table 4 1. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in domestic output, 1968-80 Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1 Industry 1 9 5 9 -6 8 87 71 44 37 97 79 73 99 91 39 1 Miscellaneous tran s p o rtatio n e q u ip m e n t ............. 13.2 Com puters and peripheral e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 .0 Plastic products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.1 Plastic m aterials and synthetic ru b b.e. r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 Air tra n s p o rta tio. n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6 . Telephone and telegraph a p p a ra tu .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 9.3 9.3 Service industry m achin es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8.0 C om m unications, except radio and T. V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 11.4 D ru g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 1 9 68 -80 11 .5 11 .0 10.1 9.7 9.1 8.5 8.5 8.1 8.0 7.9 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. NOTE: O utput is th e gross duplicated value of production including secondary products m ade in othe r industries, stated in 19 63 dollars. Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2. SOURCE: H istorical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of C om merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics . tions), plastic materials, photographic equipment (which includes photocopying equipment), telephone apparatus, service industry machines, and drugs. The introduction and rapid assimilation of computers and computer technology (in dustry 71) into operations of both the pri vate and public sectors have furnished the U. S. economy with a dynamic new factor Table 42. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in domestic output, 1980-85 Average annual rates of change 1 Industry 19 68 -80 7 91 97 101 71 82 8 81 79 112 The measure of output at the detailed industry 119 O ther nonferrous m etal ore m in in g ................... 5.5 8.0 Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . .. Air tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 .1 Electric u tilitie. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 . Computers and peripheral e q u ip m e .n. t . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0 . . O ther electrical m a c h in e.ry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 .. Coal m in in .g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 .. Telephone and telegraph a p p a ra tu s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 7.2 Miscellaneous business s e rv ic .e. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 .2 1 9 80 -85 7.5 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 62 level is gross duplicated output rather than gross pro duct originating. Gross duplicated output differs from Compound interest rates between term inal years. gross product originating in that it includes costs of NOTE: O utput is the gross duplicated value of production including materials and secondary products made in other indus secondary products made in othe r industries, stated in 1 9 63 dollars. Industry tries in addition to an industry’ s value added. num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2. 6 3The growth rates for all industries are shown in SOURCE: Bureau o f Labor Statistics appendix C. 84 Table 43. defense-related sectors whose markets are expected to show only very modest growth. Other industries such as the energy produc ing sectors are there because of the assump tion used in these projections concerning petroleum imports as the means of meeting the gap between energy supply and de mand. Finally, other industries such as mo tion pictures, tobacco products, and leather and leather products are on the slowest growing list because they are faced with declining markets or increased competition from substitutes. Industries projected to grow most slowly in domestic output, 1968-80 Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1 Industry 1959-68 19 18 116 94 9 45 42 21 48 84 Other ordnance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.9 . 6.2 Guided missiles and space vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... Motion p ic tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -. .1. . 0 Local tran s it and inte rcity b u. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - .7 . . Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 1.1 Leather, footw ear, and leather p ro d u ............ c ts Petroleum p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 .. Tobacco m a nufacturing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .9 3.1 ... Miscellaneous stone and clay products. . . . . . . . . . . A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.1 19 68 -80 -4 .5 -.2 .6 .7 .9 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 Significant changes in industry growth rates. The degree of slowdown projected NOTE: O utput is the gross duplicated value of production including for individual industries in 1968-80 relative secondary products made in other industries, stated in 1963 dollars. Industry to 1959-68 depends heavily on two factors. numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2. SOURCE: Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com For industries such as plastic products, merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of photographic equipment, and computers, Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. the ability to maintain earlier rapid growth rates depends on the private market poten tial for their products. This potential is still in the last two decades. This industry ex strong. For defense-related industries panded 12 percent annually between 1959 growth is related to government programs and 1968. Based on this growth, and the covered by basic assumptions in this pro expected use of computers in communica jection series. Most of the defense-related tions and data transmission along with industries expanded dramatically during myriad other applications, the computer 1965-68 and contracted precipitously dur industry is projected to continue its expan ing 1968-71, paralleling Vietnam war spend sion, although at slightly slower rates of ing. Thus, for these industries, the 1972-80 11.0 percent a year during 1968-80 and 6.4 percent a year in 1980-85. (See tables 41 and 42.) The growth in the output of plastic pro Table 44. Industries projected to grow most slowly in domestic output, 1980-85 ducts (industry 44) during the 1960’s was equally impressive— 14 percent a year be Average annual tween 1959 and 1968. This expansion re rates of c h a n g e 1 Industry flected the introduction and use of plastic 19 68 -80 1980-85 products as inputs to many other producing industries, such as chemical products, agri 9 Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.9 -0 .2 96 W ater tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.4 .3 cultural chemicals, packaging, and automo . . 85 Ship and boat building and re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 .4 biles, as well as for a wide range of end21 Tobacco m anu fac tu rin .g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 7 . .6 products. Based on a continued rapid 94 Local transit and inte rcity b u. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 .6 116 M otion p ic tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 1.1 growth in demand for plastic as inputs to 93 Railroad tra n s p o rta tio .n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 . 1.2 other sectors, the plastic industry is pro 45 Leather, footw ear, and leather p roduc ts ............ 1.1 1.5 jected to grow 10 percent a year between 42 Petroleum p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.5 1.5 5 Iron ore m in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.5 1.6 1968 and 1980 but to slow appreciably dur ing* 1980-85 to a rate of 5.5 percent a year. 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. Compound interest rates between term inal years. At the other end of the spectrum are those industries projected to grow slowly in 1968-80 and 1980-85 (tables 43 and 44). A number of the industries on the list are NOTE: O utput is the gross duplicated value of production including secondary products made in other industries, stated in 1963 dollars. Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix table A-2. SOURCE: 85 Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 45. Industries with significant projected changes in domestic output growth rates from 1959-68 to 1968-80 Growth r a t e s ' Industry Growth rates ' Industry 19 59 -68 Projected 1968-80 Industries with decrease in growth rate of m ore than 3 percentage points: 6.2 18 Guided missiles and space vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 19 O ther ord n a n ce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.9 38 S ynthetic fib e r. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5 . 44 Plastic p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.1 57 Miscellaneous nonferrous m etal p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 78 Radio and television s e.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8 . 80 O ther electronic com m un ication e q u ip m ....... ent 12.1 81 Electronic co m p o n e n.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.7 . 90 O ptical and ophth alm ic e q u ip m e .n .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 11.4 91 Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie.s . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 97 Air tra n s p o rta tio. n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6 . 102 Gas u tilitie.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 . - 0.2 - 4.5 5.2 10.1 2.0 3.5 3.3 6.9 4.6 8.0 9.1 2.3 Industries with decrease in growth rate of between 1 and 3 percentage points: .. 9 Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 5.6 . . 13 New nonresidential b u ild in g. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 New streets and h ig h w a y s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 7.9 ......... 23 Miscellaneous textiles and flo o r coverings . 7.3 24 Hosiery and knit goo d.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 O ther fu r n itu r e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 42 Petroleum p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 3.1 . .. 48 Miscellaneous stone and clay p ro d u c.ts . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 .... 49 Blast furnaces and basic steel products . . . . . . . . . 50 Iron and steel foundries and forging s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 53 Other prim ary and secondary nonferrous m e tal.... 5.3 6.8 . . 55 Alum inum rolling and d ra w in.g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 . 66 M ateria l handling e q u ip m e.n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 M etalw orking m achinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 5.5 68 Special industry m a c h in e.ry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5.0 6.5 70 Machine shop p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Computers and peripheral e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.0 6.5 .. 76 Household applian ces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 M otor v e h icles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7 .9 3.5 .1 5.2 5.8 4.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.5 4.6 5.3 3.7 3.4 3.9 11.0 4.2 4.2 19 59 -68 Projected 1968-80 Industries with decrease in growth rate of between 1 and 3 percentage points: Continued 84 A ir c r a ft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 .. 87 Miscellaneous trans portatio n e q u ip m e n t ........... 13.2 89 Medical and dental in s tru m e n .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 . . 100 Radio and TV broadcasting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 103 W ater and sanitary services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 110 Hotels and lodging places. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7 114 Miscellaneous professional s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 120 Educational s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.5 1.7 11.5 7.0 1.8 2.3 3.5 5.4 4.0 Industries with increase in growth rate of more than 1 percentage point: 1.4 1 Livestock and livestock p ro d u c. ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 3 Forestry and fis h eries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .5 6 Copper ore m in in.g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 . 7 Other nonferrous m etal ore m in in. g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 3.0 10 Stone and clay mining and q u a rry in. g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 New residential b u ild in g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 16 All other new c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- .1 . 4 27 Logging, sawm ills, and planing m ills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 7.7 37 Plastic m aterials and synthetic ru b b.e. r . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 P a in t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 .0 . 2.5 47 Cem ent, clay, and concrete p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Prim ary a lu m in u m. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 .. 2.1 59 Heating apparatus and plum bing fix tu re s ........... 5.0 .. 63 Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to. rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Electric lighting and w irin.g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 . . 85 Ship and boat building and r e p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 2.4 88 Scientific and controlling in s tru m en.ts . . . . . . . . . . . . .. -.7 94 Local tran s it and intercity bus tra n s p o rta tio n .... 95 Truck tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.6 96 W ater tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 . 115 A utom obile re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 116 M otion p ic tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-.1 . 0 . 2.9 3.4 6.2 5.5 4.1 3.7 2.2 3.4 9.7 4.0 4.2 7.5 4.1 7.2 6.0 6.9 3.7 .7 4.7 2.4 4.8 .6 1 Average annual rates of change com puted as compound interest SOURCE H istorical data based on data from U S. D epartm ent of C o m rates between term in al years. m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor S ta tistics. NOTE: O utput is gross duplicated output in 1963 dollars. Industry n u m bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix table A-2. outlook would be entirely different from the 1968-80 outlook. In a few industries, output growth be tween 1968 and 1980 is projected to accele rate. These industries are projected to ex pand at a rate over 1 percentage point faster than during 1959-68 (table 45). Some of these industries are heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures; engines, turbines, and generators; cement, clay, and concrete products; logging, sawmills, and planing mills; electric lighting and wiring; and scien tific and controlling instruments. The accele ration reflects the impact of expanding resi dential and nonresidential construction activity. An additional factor in the expan sion of these industries is the increasing use of batteries in a wide range of indus trial and consumer applications. The other nonferrous metal ore mining industry (in dustry 7) is projected to grow at a rate 4 percentage points faster in 1968-80 than in 1959-68. This output surge reflects the demand for lead as a major component of batteries and uranium as an energy source. The forestry and fisheries industry (industry 3) is projected to grow at a faster pace in the future. This acceleration reflects both the low fish yields of 1967-68 and the pro jected 1980 demand for lumber (stumpage sales is the major product of the forestry industry). The greatest slowdowns in the projected growth of industries in 1968-80 relative to their 1959-68 growth rates, apart from defense-related industries, are in synthetic fibers, radio and television sets, optical and ophthalmic equipment, plastic products, and communication equipment. These industries are projected to expand at a rate approxi mately 4 percentage points less on an an nual basis than their historical rate. How ever, it is important to note that most of these industries are still among the 20 fastest growing in 1968-80. These same industries, plus computers, photographic equipment, service industry machines, and miscellaneous textiles and floor coverings, are projected to have the greatest slow down in 1980-85 relative to both 1959-68 and 1968-80. These slowdowns reflect the slow growth in the final demand categories of investment expenditures and consumer goods plus the resulting slow growth of intermediate demand between 1980 and 1985. The energy-related industries — crude petroleum, refined petroleum, and gas utili ties— are projected to grow much more slowly in 1968-80 relative to 1959-68 but to show no additional slowdown in the 198085 period. This reflects the assumptions used in these projections that increases in demands for energy are to be met by im ports between 1968 and 1980 but that the gap between supply and demand for petro leum products in 1980-85 is to be met to a greater extent from domestic sources.6 4 A few industries are projected to accele rate in output growth rates between 1980 and 1985, relative to the 1968-80 period. (See table 46.) The defense-related indus tries— guided missiles and space vehicles, other ordnance, radio and TV transmitting equipment, and aircraft — are in this cate gory. (This increase is a result of using 1968-80 and 1980-85 as reference points. If 1972-80 were used, no defense-related industry would show a speedup in 1980-85.) The aircraft industry turnaround reflects the demand for civilian aircraft. The impact of gearing up to use nuclear fuel for energy, that is, the lead-time for uranium, causes the primary nonferrous metals, miscella neous nonferrous metal products, and nonferrous meted mining industries to accele rate in 1980-85. The coal mining industry also reverses its trend as energy demand focuses on the consumption of fossil fuels. The automobile industry has fluctuated historically, with good and bad model years. This industry is projected to maintain its long-term rate through 1980 and to slow to a rate of 2.6 percent a year through 1985. The 1968 model year was a relatively good year for the industry. Thus, a slowdown is projected in 1968-80 compared to 1959-68. Nevertheless, the industry is expected to expand at an annual rate of 4.2 percent. The further reduction in the projected growth in automobile output reflects many factors — urban congestion, pollution, ener gy problems, and the slowdown in growth of the younger age groups in the population. Productivity This section discusses the link, produc tivity, needed to convert industry output projections into employment. In the se quence, the output projections for 1980 and 1985 are converted into projections of total man-hours. Next, projections of each indus try’ s productivity, that is, output per man hour, are used to develop employment pro jections by industry. Major sector productivity trends. As noted in the introduction and chapter 1, produc tivity for the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors is set by assumption — in the case of these projections, to grow at annual rates of 5.5 percent and 2.7 percent, respec tively, covering both the periods 1968-80 and 1980-85. (See table 47.) These growth rates are consistent with the 1955-68 trend for these two major sectors. However, while the major sectors are projected to follow historical trends, the sector-by-sector pro ductivity projections do not necessarily dup- 64,See Introduction and note on p. x for a discussion of the energy assumptions. 87 Table 46. Industries with significant projected changes in domestic output growth rates from 1968-80 to 1980-85 Growth rates ! Industry Growth rates 1 Projected 1968-80 Industry 1980-85 Industries with decrease in growth rate of more than 3 percentage points: 6 Copper o rt m in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.2 ................ 37 Plastic m aterials and synthetic ru b b e r 9.7 39 D ru g s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 . 44 Plastic products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1 .. 71 Com puters and peripheral e q u ip m e .n. t . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0 . . 73 Service industry m a chines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 .. 85 Ship and boat building and r e p a ir . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 87 M iscellaneous transportatio n e q u ip m e.n.t. . . . . . . . . 11.5 . . 2.7 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.4 4.4 .4 3 .6 Industries with decrease in growth rate of between 1 and 3 percentage points: 1 Livestock and livestock p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 2 Crops and other agricultural products ................. 2.9 .. 3 Forestry and fis h eries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 5 Iron ore m in in.g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 . 9 Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 10 Stone and clay m ining and q u a rry in. g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 11 Chemical and fe rtilize r m ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (T3 ... . 14 New public u tilitie. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 21 Tobacco m anu fac tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 23 M iscellaneous textiles and floor coverings ........... 5.2 24 Hosiery and knit goo d s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 5.4 26 Miscellaneous fab ricated tex tile p ro d u ........... c ts ... 3.4 27 Logging, sawm ills, and planing m ills. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 M illw ork, p hywood and other wood p roduc. ts. . . . .. 5.1 . 29 Household fu r n itu r .e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 30 Other fu r n itu r. e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 . 31 Paper p ro d u c ts... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.7 32 P ap erb o ard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 .3 . 34 P rin tin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 .4 . 35 Chem ical p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.9 36 Agricultural ch em ic als. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 38 Synthetic fib e r.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 . 40 Cleaning and to ile t p re p a ra tio .n. .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 41 P a in.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 .. 4 3 Rubber p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 47 Cem ent, clay, and concrete p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,2 51 Primary copper m etals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 52 Primary a lu m in u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.5 ... 56 Other nonferrous rolling and draw ing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 Projected 19 68 -80 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.6 -.2 3.0 3.7 3.3 .6 3.1 3.6 3.1 1.9 3.1 2.3 2.4 3.1 2.8 3.2 4.2 3.8 3.8 4.6 2.6 3.3 3.2 2.8 5.2 3,7 1980-85 Industries with decrease in growth rates ot between 1 and 3 percentage points—Continued 58 M etal co ntain e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 5 60 Fabricated structural m e ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 61 Screw m achine p io d u c.ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 .. 63 Engines, turbines, and ge n erato.rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 7.2 65 Construction, m ining, and oilfield m achin ...... ery 4.3 68 Special industry m a c h in e ry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 7.0 72 Typewriters and other office m a ch in. es . . . . . . . . . . ... 75 Electric industrial a p p a ra tu. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0 . . 79 Telephone and telegraph ap p a ra tu s .................. 8.5 81 Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 .. 83 M o tor ve h ic le.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 . 54 86 Railroad and other transportation e q u ip m ..... ent 89 Medical and dental in s tru m en ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 93 Railroad tra n s p o rta tio .n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 . 95 Truck tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.7 96 W ater tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 97 Air tra n s p o rta tio. n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 . 8.1 99 Com m unications, except radio and T.V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 W holesale tr a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.9 105 Retail tra d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .2 106 F in a n c .e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 109 Other real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.4 112 Miscellaneous business servic .es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 7.2 113 Advertising. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.3 115 A utom obile re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8 . 117 Other a m u s e m e n .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7 . 118 Health services except h o s p ita. ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5.6 119 H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 . 122 Post O ffic e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 .2 2.1 3.3 2.0 4.9 2.9 2.0 4.6 4.0 5.7 5.8 2.6 3.5 5.5 1.2 3.0 3 7.1 5.3 2.9 3.0 4.4 3.2 5.6 2.2 2.7 2.7 3.7 5.6 4.1 Industries with increase in growth rate of more than 1 percentage point: 7 O ther n o n ' j u s m etal ore m in in g , ....... . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 8 C o a lm in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.3 15 New streets and h igh w ays. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 16 All other new c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 18 Guided missiles and space vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - . 2 ... 19 Other ordnance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - .4. . 5 . 53 Other prim ary and secondary nonferrous m e ta l. .. 2.5 84 A ir c r a ft ............. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 7.5 5.8 1.4 3.8 3.8 3.3 3.7 36 ' Average annual rates of change computed as compound interest SOURCE: H istorical data based on data from D epa rtm ent of Com U .S. rates between term in al years. m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis: projections by Bureau of Labor S ta tistics. NOTE: O utput is gross duplicated outpu t in 1963 dollars. Industry n u m bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2. down reflects the impact of a limited re vival of underground mining as well as more stringent safety regulations and a greater use of marginal oil wells. The re maining major sectors are projected to dif fer only moderately from their historical trends in productivity growth. Any down ward or upward productivity adjustments reflect the movement of individual indus tries within the sector. For example, pro- licate their respective 1955-68 trends. For example, productivity for mining is pro jected to grow at not quite 1 percent a year during 1968-80 compared to 3.7 percent a year between 1955 and 1968.6 This slow5 65The productivity projections by major sector re flect the summation of projections of output per man-hour made at the industry level. No explicit sector projections were made except in agriculture. 88 Table 47. Productivity change by sector, selected periods, actual and projected, 1948-85 Average annual rates of change 1 Sector Projected 1 9 48 -68 1955-68 19 65 -72 1972-80 1968-85 1968-80 1980-85 Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.2 3.0 2.6 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.8 A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 .8 . N onagriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 .7 . M ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .0 C ons truc tion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 ) M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 ) N ond u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (. 2 ) (2 ) .. . Transportation, co m m unication, and public u tilitie.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.8 . W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 2 ) R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 ) Finance, insurance, and real es ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 2 ) .. Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 ) Governm ent e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 2 ) 5.5 2.6 3.7 (2 ) 2.7 2.3 3.2 4.7 3.6 5.8 5.1 2.9 3.5 2.5 (2 ) (2 ) (2 ) 4.5 2.4 2.3 (2 ) 3.1 2.4 3.9 4.5 3.4 5.2 3.9 2.5 3.0 2.1 (2 ) (2 ) (2 ) 6.1 3.0 .9 1.5 2.7 3.2 2.0 4.6 4.1 5.6 4.6 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.6 2.4 5.5 2.7 .9 .8 2.9 3.0 2.9 4.4 3.5 5.3 4.3 2.7 2.5 2.6 1.6 2.5 2.8 5.5 2.7 .8 .8 3.1 3.2 2.9 4.5 3.6 5.4 4.3 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.4 2.6 2.7 5.5 2.7 .9 .7 2.6 2.4 2.9 4.1 3.1 4.9 4.3 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.0 2.4 3.0 1 1948-68 based on linear least squares trend method; all other periods are compound interest rates between term inal years. NOTE: Productivity data are gross national product (1 9 6 3 dollars) man-hour. SOURCE: 2 Not available. ductivity in durable goods manufacturing is projected to grow only 2.4 percent a year during 1980-85, compared to 3.2 percent a year in 1968-80. The output growth rates of durable goods industries having high pro ductivity growth rates, such as computers and photographic equipment, are projected to slow considerably during 1980-85 rela tive to 1968-80. Therefore, these individual industries do not account for as much of the durable manufacturing productivity gains in the 1980-85 period as they did in the 1968-80 period. productivity growth. This method was desir able for two reasons: First, several indus tries are projected to have considerably slower output growth in 1968-80 than in 1959-68 (for example, computers and plas tic products); second, almost all the indus tries are projected to have slower output expansion during 1980-85 than in 1968-80. The regression analysis showed productivity by industry to be sensitive to output changes. However, as the projection se quence progressed, this approach was large ly abandoned for two reasons: First, the responsiveness of productivity changes to output fluctuations was judged to be too great to be consistent with long-term trends; second, these cyclical responses to the pro jected 1980-85 output slowdowns would be inconsistent with the macromodel assump tion that the rate of overall growth in productivity in the nonfarm economy would be the same. The second approach to industry pro ductivity assumes that each industry dupli cates its 1958-70 productivity trend in both projected periods, 1968-80 and 1980-85. This trend was derived by regressing the ratio "output per man-hour” against the Industry productivity projections. The pro jections of productivity growth used here (table 48) followed three basic approaches: regression analysis, which expresses pro ductivity as a function of time and an in dustry’s domestic output; a 1958-70 regres sion of productivity against time; and sub jective judgment when the projected growth in output differed significantly from histori cal trends. The first approach, regression analysis, was attempted in an effort to separate cycli cal responses of productivity to output fluctuations from the long-term trend in Bureau of Labor Statistics. 89 Table 48. Range of industry productivity (output per man-hour) projections, 1968-80 GROW TH O F LES S TH AN 6 9 12-17 18 25 29 32 33 46 48 50 51 61 62 94 96 100 102 103 106 107 109 110 111 112 113 115 116 117 118 121 2 P ER C EN T A YEAR GROW TH O F B ET W EEN 2 AN D 4 P ER C EN T A YEAR GROW TH O F M O R E TH A N 4 P ER C EN T A Y EA R Copper ore mining 3 Forestry and fisheries 1 Crude petroleum 6 Copper ore mining 2 New construction and maintenance and repair 8 Coal mining 5 Guided missiles and space vehicles 10 Stone and clay mining and quarrying 7 Apparel 19 Other ordnance 11 Household furniture 20 Food products 23 Paperboard 21 Tobacco manufacturing 23 Publishing 22 Fabric, yarn, and thread mills 26 Glass 28 Millwork, plywood and other wood products 27 Miscellaneous stoneand clay products 30 Other furniture 34 Iron and steel foundries and forgings 31 Paper products 35 Primary copper metals 38 Synthetic fibers 36 Screw machine products 40 Cleaning and toile t preparations 37 Other fabricated metal products 41 Paint 39 Local transit and intercity bus 42 Petroleum products 44 Water transportation 43 Rubber products 52 Radio and TV broadcasting 45 Leather, footwear, and leather products 63 Gas utilities 47 Cement, clay, and concrete products 72 Water and sanitary services 49 Blast furnaces and basic steel products 73 Finance 54 Copper rolling and drawing 78 Insurance 55 Aluminum rolling and drawing 80 Other real estate 56 Other nonferrous rolling and drawing 81 Hotels and lodging places 57 Miscellaneous nonferrous metal products 82 Other personal services 58 Metal containers 84 Miscellaneous business services 59 Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures 87 Advertising 60 Fabricated structural metal. 91 64 Farm machinery Automobile repair 93 Motion pictures 65 Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery 97 Other amusements 66 Material handling equipment 99 Health services except hospitals 67 Metalworking machinery 101 Nonprofit organizations 68 Special industry machinery 69 General industrial machinery 70 Machine shop products 71 Computers and peripheral equipment 74 Electric transmission equipment 75 Electrical industrial: apparatus 76 Household appliances 77 Electric lighting and wiring 83 Motor vehicles 85 Ship and boat building and repair 86 Railroad andothertransportationequipm ent 88 Scientific and controlling instruments 90 Optical and ophthalmic equipment 92 Miscellaneous manufactured products 95 Truck transportation 98 Othertransportation 104 Wholesale trade 105 Retail trade 114 Miscellaneous professional services 119 Hospitals 120 Educational services Livestock and livestock products Crops and other agricultural products Iron ore mining Other nonferrous metal ore mining Chemical and fertilizer mining Miscellaneous textiles and floor coverings Hosiery and knit goods Miscellaneous fabricated textile products Logging, sawmills, and planing mills Printing Chemical products Agricultural chemicals Plastic materials and synthetic rubber Drugs Plastic products Primary aluminum Engines, turbines, and generators Typewriters and other office machines Service industry machines Radio and television sets Other electronic communication equipment Electronic components Other electrical machinery Aircraft Miscellaneous transportation equipm ent Photographic equipment and supplies Railroad transportation Air transportation Communications, except radio and TV Electric utilities NOTE: O utput per m an-hour as used in this tab le is gross duplicated Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2. o utpu t (1 9 6 3 dollars) per m an-hour, covering hours of self-em ployed and unpaid fam ily workers as well as wage and salary workers. In the great SOURCE: Bureau of Labor S tatistics. m a jority of industries the same rate of productivity growth was projected for 1 9 80 -85 as fo r 19 6 8 -8 0 . 90 Table 49. Changes in average annual hours by major sector, selected periods, actual and projected, 1948-85 Average annual rates of change 1 Sector Projected 1948-68 Tota l p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - .0 . . 4 . . A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . . 6 N onagriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . . .3 M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 C on s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . .3 . M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 ) D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( . 3 ) . N o n d u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 3 ) Tran sportation, co m m unication, and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 3 ) T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . 2 . . C o m m u n ic a tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-.. 1 T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . .5 W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( . 3 ) R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (. .3 ) . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - . 2 .. O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . 6 1 ods are 2 3 19 48 -68 based on linear least squares trend method; all other pericom pound interest rates between term inal years. Less than .05 percent a year. Not available. variable "time.” For the industries, several in number, with a considerably lower pro jected output trend between 1968 and 1980 relative to 1959-68, the historical produc tivity trend was adjusted moderately down ward. Plastic products and air transporta tion are two examples where this procedure was followed (table 45). This second ap proach is consistent with the macromodel’s assumption of a single productivity rate in the nonagricultural sector, despite the pro jected lower output growth in the second period, 1980-85, relative to 1968-80.6 6 The third approach, a subjective judg ment, was needed for those industries whose projected output was significantly different from historical trends. The defenserelated industries (guided missiles, other ordnance, aircraft, etc.) expanded and con tracted with Vietnam war spending. The projections of output for these industries assume a stable growth of peacetime de fense expenditures. Therefore, these pro jections differ substantially from their his torical patterns. The output growth rates -0 .5 - .5 - .4 - .2 - .1 - .1 - .1 - .1 - .1 - .2 ( 2 ) ( 2 ) - .7 .2 - 1.0 - .3 - .7 - 0.4 - .2 - .4 .5 - i ( 2 ) 1.0 - .1 -.1 - .1 1.0 1.0 - .8 - .2 -1 .0 - .2 - .6 -0 .6 - .7 - .6 ( 2 ) - 0.3 - -0 .3 .5 .3 .? - - ( 2 ) .4 .2 . ( 2 ) ( 2) .2 .1 ( 2 ) .3 ( 2 ) .4 - .1 .5 .1 (2 ) ( 2 ) - .5 - 1.0 - .4 - .1 - 1.2 - .7 - .2 - .1 - .6 - .4 .5 .3 .1 - .1 - 0.3 - .5 - .3 .1 - 1 -0 .3 - .5 .3 .1 - .1 ( 2 ) ( 2) ( 2 ) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) -.1 - :1 - - .1 - .1 .1 .1 ( 2) ( 2 ) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2) ( 2 ) - - .6 .1 .8 .1 - .4 .6 .1 .8 .1 - .6 - .1 - .8 - .1 - .4 - .4 SOURCE: Historical and projected data from U.S. D epartm ent of L Bureau of Labor S tatistics. of energy-related industries such as crude oil, refined petroleum, and gas utilities are projected to slow considerably in 1968-80 as increased demands are assumed to be met by imports. However, the energy in dustries were projected to show a slight acceleration in output in 1980-85 as in creases in energy demands were again to be met more by domestic resources. There fore, the productivity projections for these industries differ from historical patterns. Average hours Average hours in the agriculture sector (on an "hours paid for” basis) are projected to decline 0.5 percent a year during 196885.6 The workweek in the nonagricultural 7 sector is projected to decline 0.3 percent a year (table 49). Average weekly hours by 6 7After selecting a set of industry productivity pro jections and using the projections of final demand and industry growth rates, a man-hour change by industry between 1968 and 1980 and 1985 was projected. This section provides the final link, average weekly hours, in converting the output projections into employment. The previous section discussed the conversion of projections into total man-hours by sector and industry. 66 In the final projections the 1980-85 productivity growth for some industries does not equal the 1968-80 rate. This occurs because of the balancing procedures. 1955-68 19 59 -68 1965-72 19 72 -80 1968-85 19 68 -80 1980-85 91 tors are projected to take place. However, these shifts need not parallel the previously discussed output shifts by major sector, due to the differences in sectoral productivity and average weekly hours projected. How ever, to a considerable extent the projected employment distributions are continuations of the postwar patterns, with several nota ble exceptions. Within the total civilian economy, the historical and projected em ployment shares show a steady movement to the government sector from the private sector (chart 7). Most of the public sector growth is State and local as civilian em ployment in the Federal Government is projected to equal only its 1968 level by 1985. State and local government employ ment, on the other hand, is projected to show the most rapid growth of any sector. Still, the State and local employment growth rate is slower than its historical trend. The slower growth in State and local government employment reflects the slower growth pro jected for grants-in-aid to State and local governments and the smaller number of children of school age. Within the private economy, the histori cal and projected employment shares show a steady movement from agriculture to the nonagricultural sector of the econorpy. With in the nonagricultural sectors, employment shares are projected to continue the his torical movement toward nonmanufacturing away from manufacturing. Manufacturing’s employment share has not fluctuated like its output share since its cyclical patterns of productivity and average weekly hours tend to dampen the employment impact of changes in manufacturing output. For exam ple, between 1968 and 1972, nondurable manufacturing increased its output share but its employment share declined. This sector’s output growth was not translated into employment growth because of pro ductivity growth and a very small increase in average weekly hours. Manufacturing’s employment share is projected to remain stable from 1972 to 1980, as durable manu facturing recovers its share at the expense of nondurable manufacturing. However, the employment shares of the two manufactur ing sectors decline from 1980 to 1985, sector are projected to continue their his torical trends of 1955-68, with only a few exceptions. These exceptions are retail trade and other services, which historically have had the more rapid declines in hours. The declines in the workweek for these two sectors are projected to moderate slightly. The workweek in mining is projected to expand less rapidly, reflecting some upper bounds of the workweek. The projected rates of change in average weekly hours for individual industries were assumed to be the same as for the major sector to which they belong. It was found that the detailed projections of average weekly hours by industry provided little in the way of additional information (but add ed considerably to calculations). For exam ple, average hours in the manufacturing in dustries fluctuate from year to year but have no perceptible long-term trend. Employment The economy is projected to generate 20.7 million new jobs between 1968 and 1980, or approximately 1.7 million a year (2.1 million a year in 1972-80).6 8 Be tween 1980 and 1985 an additional 6.0 million jobs will be generated, or approxi mately 1.2 million a year (table 50). These employment projections compare with the 15.2 million jobs, or 1.2 million a year, generated from 1955 to 1968. The pro jected increases in the number of jobs, in terms of annual growth rates, are 1.9 per cent for 1968-80 and 1.2 percent for 198085, compared with 1.6 percent for 195568 . Shifts in major sectors. Shifts in the relative importance of the major employment sec68The projections of industry productivity and aver age weekly hours, along with the projections of final de mand and industry growth rates, gave projected employ ment changes between 1968, 1980, and 1985. The employment projections— just as with average hours, productivity, and output— were done separately for 134 sectors and then summed to get the major sector detail discussed in this section. 92 reflecting the projected output slowdown of these two nic~jor sectors. Durable manufacturing’s employment share would have dedined even further except for its projected productivity slowdown, which reflects the slower output growth of the high productivity industries in this sector such as computers and photographic equipment. Within the nonmanufacturing sectors, Table 50. projected employment as a percentage of total civilian employment reflects the continuation of historical declines in mining, construction, and transportation, and increases in finance, insurance, and real estate, and other services. Three sectors, communication, public utilities, and wholesale trade, are projected to maintain their stable historical share of Total em ploym ent (co un ting jobs rather than w orkers) by m ajor sector, selected years 195 5-7 2 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Projected ■ Sector 1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 Thousands of jobs Total 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G o ve rn m en .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A gricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N onagriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ons truc tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N ond u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tran sportation, com m unication. and public u tilitie s .... Tran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic atio n ........... Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . T ra d e ............................... W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 ,74 5 6,914 58,831 6,434 52,397 832 3,582 17,309 9,782 7,527 6 6 ,02 9 7,839 5 8 ,19 0 5,5 4 0 5 2 .6 5 0 787 3,533 16.344 9,051 7,294 6 7 ,8 2 0 8,0 8 3 5 9 ,73 7 5,519 5 4 ,2 1 8 767 3,706 17,04 2 9,516 7,558 7 0 ,72 9 9 ,2 2 5 6 1 ,5 0 4 4,7 1 2 5 6 .7 9 2 670 3,755 17,39 0 9,835 7,556 74 ,55 2 10 .07 4 6 4 ,4 7 8 4 ,3 3 8 6 0 ,1 4 0 667 4,0 0 0 18,45 2 10,624 7,828 8 0 ,9 2 6 11,845 69,08 1 3,816 6 5 ,2 6 5 640 4,0 3 8 2 0 ,1 3 8 1 1 ,82 8 8,310 8 3 ,2 7 3 12,535 7 0 ,7 4 3 3,422 6 7 .3 1 6 660 4 ,1 5 8 19 ,70 5 11,404 8,301 8 3 .3 2 9 12,856 7 0 ,73 8 3,353 6 7 .1 2 0 C39 4 ,216 18,88 2 10.772 8.110 85 ,59 7 101,576 13,29 0 16,610 72 ,30 7 8 4 ,96 6 3 ,450 2.300 6 8 ,85 7 8 2 ,66 6 645 665 4 ,9 0 8 4 ,3 5 2 19,281 2 2 ,92 3 11,091 13.629 9,294 8 ,1 9 0 10 7,6 09 18,800 8 8 .80 9 1,900 8 6 ,9 0 9 632 5,184 2 3 ,49 9 14,154 9.345 4,353 2.918 832 603 13,201 3,063 10,138 4,189 2,703 864 622 13,545 3,126 10,419 4,201 2,743 837 621 13,846 3,229 10,66 4 4 ,113 2 ,663 828 622 14,341 3,397 10 ,94 5 4 ,249 2,7 2 8 885 636 15 ,33 4 3,596 11 ,73 8 4,519 2,868 986 665 16,655 3,894 12,761 4,7 2 2 2,895 1,125 702 17,56 9 4 ,098 13,471 4,671 2,8 3 6 1,128 707 17,870 4 ,097 13,77 3 4 ,7 2 6 2,8 4 2 1,150 734 18,43 2 4 ,235 14,19 7 5,321 3 ,2 5 0 1,300 771 2 1 ,69 5 4.9 4 6 16,749 5,3 6 8 3,266 1,312 790 22,381 5,123 17.258 2,652 10.468 2,830 11,422 2,8 9 3 11,763 3,212 1 3 ,31 0 3,369 14,069 3 ,720 15 ,55 5 4 ,0 3 8 16,466 4,1 5 4 16,688 4 .3 0 3 1 7 ,11 8 5 ,3 4 9 2 1 ,8 1 5 5,9 3 2 2 3 ,9 1 3 Percent distribution T o ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 G ove rn m en .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 89.5 Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A gricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 N o na griculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79.7 M ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 5.4 C on s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g .................. 26.3 D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.9 N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5 Tran sportation, com m unica6.6 tion, and public u tilitie s .... 4.4 T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n ........... 1.3 Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 T ra d e ............................... 20.1 4.7 W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.4 R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and 4.0 real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.9 Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i— -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - See footnotes at end of table 100.0 11.9 88.1 8.4 79.7 1.2 5.4 24.8 13.7 11.0 100.0 13.0 87 .0 6.7 80 .3 .9 5.3 24.6 13.9 10.7 100.0 13.5 86 .5 5.8 80.7 .9 5.4 24.8 14.3 10.5 100.0 14.6 85.4 4.7 80.6 .8 5.0 24.9 14.6 10.3 100.0 15.1 84 .9 4.1 80 .8 .8 5.0 23.7 13.7 10.0 100.0 15.4 84 .6 4.0 8 0 ,5 .8 5.1 22 .7 12.9 19.7 100.0 15.5 8 4 .5 4.0 80 .4 .8 5.1 22 .5 13.0 9.6 100.0 16.4 83 .6 2.3 81 .4 .7 4.8 22 .6 13.4 9.1 100.0 17.5 82 .5 1.8 80 .8 .6 4.8 21 .8 13.2 8.7 6.3 4.1 1.3 .9 20.5 4.7 15.8 100.0 11.9 88.1 8.1 79.9 1.1 5.5 25.1 14.0 11.1 •\ 6.2 4.0 1.2 .9 20.4 4.7 15.7 5.8 3.8 1.2 .9 20 .3 4 4 .8 15.5 5.7 3.7 1.2 .9 20.6 4.9 15.7 5.6 3.5 1.2 .8 21.6 4.8 15.8 5.7 3.5 1.4 .8 21.1 4.9 16.2 5.6 3.4 1.4 .8 21 .4 4.9 16.5 5.5 3.3 1.3 .9 21.5 4.9 16.6 5.2 3.2 1.3 .8 21 .4 4.9 16.5 5.0 3.0 1.2 .7 20 .8 4.8 16.0 4.3 17.3 4.3 17.3 4.5 18.8 4.5 18.9 4.6 19.2 4.9 19.8 5.0 20 .0 5.0 20 .0 5.3 21 .5 5.5 22 .2 93 Table 50. T otal em p loym ent (co un ting jobs rath er than w orkers) by m ajor sector, selected years 195 5-7 2 and projected for 1980 and 1985—Continued Average annual rates of change 2 Sector 19 55 -68 1965-72 1972-80 1968-85 1968-80 1 9 80 -85 1.6 4.2 1.2 - 3.9 1.7 - 2.0 .9 1.2 1.5 .8 2.0 4.3 1.6 - 4.0 2.1 - 2.0 1.0 1.9 2.4 1.1 2.0 4.0 1.7 - 3.2 2.0 -.5 1.2 .6 .6 .7 2.2 2.8 2.0 - 4.9 2.3 .2 1.5 2.2 2.6 1.6 1.7 2.8 1.5 - 4 .0 1.7 -.1 1.5 .9 1.1 .7 1.9 2.9 1.7 -4 .1 2.0 .2 1.6 1.1 1.2 .9 1.2 2.5 .9 - 3.7 1.0 -.7 1.1 .5 .8 .1 .3 -.1 1.3 .8 1.8 1.9 1.8 .8 .5 1.8 .8 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.5 .6 3.8 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 .7 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.0 .8 1.7 1.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.0 2.3 1.2 2.2 2.0 2.3 .2 .1 .2 .5 .6 .7 .6 2.6 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.5 2.8 oo cvi T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . G o v e rn m en t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n a g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g .................. D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n d u ra b le ................. T ran sportation, co m m un ica tion. and public u tilitie s .... T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n ........... Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . T ra d e ............................... W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1959-68 2.8 2.6 3.1 2.9 2.1 1.9 3.1 1 See table 10, c h . 1, for a derivation of these civilian em ploym ent NOTE: Em ploym ent covers se lf-e m p lo y e d , unpaid fam ily workers, and levels which include a Bureau of Labor Statistics governm ent em ploym ent wage and salary workers. The em ploym ent is a count of jobs rather than persons holding a job. Thus, persons holding more than one job would be concept. counted more than once. 2 Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCE: output share has, because of the high pro ductivity growth in this sector. Mining employment is projected to re verse its historical decline in 1972-80, re flecting a resurgence of demand within the coal mining industry and a slowing of pro ductivity growth in several of the mining in dustries. Construction employment growth is projected to accelerate in 1968-80 in ab solute terms although still showing a rela tive decline. The growth in construction em ployment results from the projected growth in demand for residential and nonresidential construction. Employment in the transporta tion sector is projected to increase as in dustries such as trucking and air transpor tation become increasingly important and the intracity transportation systems such as railways reverse their historical decline in employment and output. employment. The retail trade employment share has risen steadily in the past from 15.4 percent in 1955 to 16.6 percent of total employment in 1972 but this share is projected to decline to 16.0 percent by 1985. This reversal reflects the declining percentage of final demand expenditures on goods between 1980 and 1985. The employment share of other services has steadily risen from 15.9 percent in 1955 to 20.0 percent in 1972 and is projected to account for 22.2 percent of civilian employ ment by 1985. This follows as expenditures by consumers on services continue to grow both absolutely and relatively and as pro ductivity growth in this sector lags behind the private nonagricultural averages. The other services sector employment growth is projected to accelerate relative to its 195568 trend, reflecting both projected growth of final demand for consumer services and intermediate demands for such activities as business consulting, temporary help, and services to building. Communication’s em ployment share has not increased as its Bureau of Labor Statistics. Industry employment projections. Moving from a consideration of major sectors to an analysis of industries in greater detail, the projected average annual rates of change 94 Chart 7 Total Employment by Major Sector, Selected Years 1955-72 and Projected for 1980 and 1985 Percent d istribution Other services J a p t ® pg ,y£*\.£{»•&'; p s - #&m. • - j km ® \; : mw \;W $§ Finance, insurance, and real estate mm 5 |§§|f! HHl 0 . #gg;s t | f*s 5;-y -.^ :. |ff| 3§p l fig Percent Sfe'W ; !&$£&K§Sr' Transportation, com m unication, and public u tilitie s - .- v ~ WSS t^tg® '}}'r y ir Pt&. s&S S 'Sk IE* r!^4?3 yK;>* ‘ riVr.V>,< r!' .•J "ll — 90 j;.--;;;v ?:.v ^t§# X *\VA a-.’W '‘■.iWBvSs • ' M r W& : S fk — 80 J8 J ..,.....sr — 70 V ' --.V 1118 c-^Tv^v :,lir.TV-, ' -' Vy” AV ’■ 100 |||^5 :3 2& wr * iSSiSi-Viii HH iVSte a iy >p ivS i' Trade *-iWr& &? r 8 itV 4 S il M $0 & $M $ W tar in 8 (S^.r> ? ? t; 1 a& y 7^ ^ ;: f § § ►feifc T;. 1 7 ivS'-.v:: ■ “ — 60 £ ■& '£& — 50 -;;; y.‘ v ./V '^ V •Viv^Vrryi Manufacturing V -'m ~ ••V.rC*;.* :*•>.*• — 40, r i :=VJ ?.;'-::,'7 5 C- V w .V !* < j — 30 :v i!y> vr.^ v C onstruction M ining — 20 — 10 A griculture •/«>.; Government S^ Ji s y US! $ rfcv ,^s 5i *-v T.-Z.V 1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985 95 _ 0 period, employment changes range from a 0.4-million decline in agricultural jobs to a 2.1-million increase in State and local gen Average annual eral government. The selected industries rates of change1 Industry shown in table 53, although few in number, 1959-68 1 9 68 -80 account for well over 80 percent of the projected change in jobs in 1968-85. 8.7 6.7 . 71 Com puters and peripheral e q u ip m e .n. .t . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 112 Miscellaneous business s e rvic .es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 .. The reasons associated with high em 10.2 5.6 87 Miscellaneous trans portatio n e q u ip m e n t ........... ployment growth rates can vary from a very 5.5 5.5 11 8 Health services except h o s p ita .ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . high output growth to a low productivity 5.1 119 H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 .2 . 5.1 44 Plastic products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.6 growth or a rapidly declining average work 4.6 2.5 85 Ship and boat building and rep.a. ir . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. week or a combination of these factors. Of 4.4 89 M edical and dental in s tru m e n ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 the industries noted above, miscellaneous 4 .0 114 M iscellaneous professional se rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 4.0 106 F in a n c.e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 transportation equipment, computers and 4 .0 107 In s u ra n c e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 .0 . peripheral equipment, and plastic products seem clearly associated with a very high 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. rate of growth in projected output. The NOTES: Em ploym ent is on a job concept and covers wage and salary workers, self-em ployed, and unpaid fam ily workers. Industry num bers refer to computer industry’s output is projected to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2. grow 11 percent a yc^r in 1968-80 and its productivity over 4 percent a year. Other SOURCE: Bureau of Labor S tatistics. industries such as miscellaneous business services, hospitals, and health services ex in employment for 1968-80 vary from a de cept hospitals each have moderately high cline of 4.5 percent annually for other ord rates of growth in output coupled with slow nance (industry 19) to a growth of almost growth rates in output per man-hour. The 7.0 percent a year for computers (industry output of miscellaneous business services 71). Other rapidly growing industries in is projected to grow 7.2 percent a year but 1968-80 (table 51) are miscellaneous trans its productivity is projected to grow less portation equipment; miscellaneous busi than 2 percent a year. The industries of the ness services; health services except hospi other services sector, such as miscellaneous tals; hospitals; plastic products; ship and business services, are projected to have boat building; and medical and dental instru their average workweek decline 0.4 percent ments. For the projected period 1980-85the rates of change in employment by industry Table 52. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in employment, vary from a 4 percent annual decline in 1980-85 railroad transportation to an annual in crease of almost 4 percent in miscellaneous Average annual business services (table 52).6 9 rates of c h a n g e 1 Industry From a different perspective — the actual 1968-80 19 80 -85 change in number of jobs — employment change between 1968 and 1980 ranges from 112 Miscellaneous business s e rv ic .e. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 3.8 18 Guided missiles and space vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 1 . 8 ... 3.8 a 1.5 million job loss in agriculture to a 4.8 78 Radio and television se ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 2.9 million increase in State and local general 119 H ospitals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 .2 2.9 government. The more rapidly expanding in 89 Medical and dental in s tru m e n .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 . . 2.8 106 F in a n ce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.0 . 2.6 dustries, in addition to State and local 118 Health services except h o s p ita .ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 2.6 government, are retail trade; miscellaneous 114 M iscellaneous professional s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 2.4 business services; hospitals; health services 91 Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . .. 3.1 2.3 7 Other nonferrous m etal ore m in in. g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 2.3 except hospitals; and wholesale trade, each adding more than 1 million jobs between 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 1968 and 1980 (table 53). Overthe 1980-85 Table 51. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in employment, 1968-80 NOTES: Em ploym ent is on a job concept and covers wage and salary workers, self-em ployed, and unpaid fam ily workers. Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2. 69 The employment levels and rates of growth for all industries are shown in appendix C. SOURCE: 96 Bureau of Labor Statistics. Table 53. Industries projected to show largest increases in number of jobs, 1968-80 and 1980-85 19 68 -80 Industry 19 80 -85 Additional jobs (thousands) 1 Industry Additional jobs (th o u s a n d s )1 Total, 10 in d u s trie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 ,02 4 Total, 10 in d u s trie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 302 4,771 State and local governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 105 Retail tra d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,9 8 8 1,512 112 Miscellaneous business s e rvic .es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 119 H ospitals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,386 . 1,264 118 Health services except h o s p ita .ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 W holesale tr a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,052 106 F in a n ce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 924 12-17 C o n s tru c tio.n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 870 649 114 Miscellaneous professional s e rv ic.e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 608 .. 121 N onprofit organizations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and local g overnm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 2,120 112 Miscellaneous business s e rvic .es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 628 105 Retail tra d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509 119 H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460 . . 118 Health services except h o s p ita .ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367 106 F in a n ce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338 12-17 C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276 114 Miscellaneous professional s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 121 N onprofit organizations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 104 W holesale tr a d.e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Total econom y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 ,6 5 0 . 82 .4 10 industries as percent of additional jobs in total econom y.. . Total ec onom y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 industries as percent of ad ditional jobs in to ta l econom y.. Based on to ta l em ploym ent, BLS concept. NOTE: table A -2. SOURCE: 6 033 87 .9 Bureau of Labor S tatistics. Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix a year. Therefore, their employment is pro jected to grow an additional 0.4 percentage points a year because of this projected change in hours. Because of the projected slowdown in industry output growth in 1968-80 relative to the 1959-68 trend, several industries will not expand employment as rapidly in 1968-80 relative to 1959-68. The defenserelated industries, guided missiles, other ordnance, and aircraft, are projected to have 1980 employment levels that are lower than in 1968 but higher than in 1972. The indus tries growing fastest in output, such as plastic products, photographic equipment, air transportation, computers, and synthetic fibers are projected to expand employment between 1968 and 1980 at annual rates ex ceeding 2.5 percent, but these rates are considerably below their respective 1959-68 trends. The mining industries are all pro jected to either slow their historical decline (coal mining and crude petroleum) or show a small employment growth (other nonferous metal ore mining). In the copper ore mining and primary copper industries, the growth rates are distorted when 1968 is used as a base since in 1967-68 there was a copper strike. Only one industry, heating and plumbing fixtures, is projected to ac celerate its employment growth in 1968-80 relative to 1959-68. This reflects the in crease in this industry’s output resulting from the projected growth in construction activities. Because of the 1980-85 projected slow down in output expansion relative to 196880, 15 manufacturing industries are pro jected to show no growth in employment in 1980-85. A few of these are telephone and telegraph apparatus, iron and steel foun dries, miscellaneous fabricated textile prod ucts, and agricultural chemicals. On the other hand, the uranium-related industries (other nonferrous metal mining and miscel laneous nonferrous metal products) are pro jected to have faster employment expansion in 1980-85 than in 1968-80 because of their output increase resulting from demands made on these sectors from nuclear electric power generation. Several industries are projected to show small employment de clines in 1980-85 after having had a positive growth in 1968-80. These industries are copper rolling and drawing, other furniture (industry 30), special industry machinery, and motor vehicles. The employment de cline in the motor vehicle industry reflects the impact of an output growth slowdown between 1980 and 1985 because of a num ber of factors such as urban congestion, along with slower growth in incomes. 97 Chapter 6. Impact of A lternative Assumptions on Projected Growth of Real GNP In chapter 1 discussions of the potential 1980 and 1985 gross national products were presented. This chapter discusses alterna tive rates of growth in real GNP which re sult from changing some of the basic assumptions. For each of the major variables used in projecting potential GNP there are uncer tainties concerning their possible course in the future. It is extremely difficult to pin point the degree of uncertainty surrounding each of these variables, but it is possible to describe or calculate their possible impact on the longrun growth rate of the econo my.7 That is the purpose of this chapter. 0 Since for each variable, or factor, several alternative assumptions are reasonable, the number of combinations can quickly expand to unmanageable magnitudes. For that rea son, the alternatives selected are meant to define the outer bounds of a reasonable range, rather than to explore all possible alternatives. Also, it is important to note that by discussing each of these factors separately, the interaction between the fac tors is not being considered. As an example, in exploring a faster or slower rate of de cline in average annual hours, the impact this might have on the future rate of pro ductivity changes is not considered. the Bureau of the Census.7 The Bureau 1 also has developed alternative population projections (series D and F) which for 1985 differ from series E only in the number of persons under the age of 16, that is, those not yet born. The variance between series D and F and the basic series E projection results from the alternative fertility rate assumptions for women in the childbearing age group. The total fertility rate (i.e., ac cumulated births over all childbearing years per woman) declined from 3.5 in 1955 to 2.9 in 1965 and further declined to 2.3 in 1971 and 2.0 in 1972. Population series E used in the basic projections assumes a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. The fertility rates used by the Bureau of Census in population projection series D and F are 2.45 and 1.78 children per woman, respec tively. Although the age and sex distributions of the working age population for 1980 and 1985 are reasonably fixed, the projected labor force varies with the choice of the population series because the labor force participation rate of women is a function of, among other factors, the presence of chil dren, particularly children under 5 years of age. Specifically, women with young children traditionally have had lower participation rates. By separating women of childbearing age into two groups, those with children and those without, the impact of variations in the fertility rate is introduced. The num ber of women, ages 16-44, is unchanged but the mix evolves toward those without children as the lower fertility rate assump tion is introduced. As a result, when series F population projections are used a larger labor force is projected and when series D A lternative GNP growth rates Population and fertility rates. The projec tions of total population in 1980 and 1985 used in deriving the labor force and poten tial GNP discussed in chapter 1 are those in the series E population projections of 70For a discussion of the impact of alternative assumptions on projected GNP levels and composition, see Challenges for Business in the 1 9 7 0 ’s by the editors of Fortune (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1972). 71 Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 493 (Bureau of the Census, December 1972). 98 rates and their impact on labor force and potential GNP, it was assumed that the labor force participation rates for 1980 and 1985 were fixed by age and sex categories. Thus, the earlier alternative labor force pro jections resulted simply from aggregation of subgroups, under alternative fertility pro jections (and therefore, labor force partici pation rates) for women of childbearing age.7 2 The participation rates in the basic pro jections are largely extensions of long-term factors modified by recent developments, institutional, social, and economic. Some of these influences are declining fertility rates, increasing use of child care centers, exten sion of retirement rules for disability and age, the demand for part-time workers by services and trade industries, and fluctua ting unemployment rates, to name a few. Individuals react to these influences by changing their work status between full and part time and by entering, reentering, or leaving the labor market. For example, approximately 25 percent of the women ages 25-36 who entered the nonfarm labor force between 1965 and 1971 sought volumtarily part-time jobs. The participation rates for 1980 and 1985 for this group are re spectively 50.4 and 51.1 percent. If the growth in participation of this particular group continues at its recent level rather than at one-half of its long-term rate, the labor force for 1980 and 1985 would be considerably larger. Two alternative sets of participation rate assumptions have been developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.7 3 In the first alternative, participation rates in each age- is used a smaller labor force is projected. The labor force in the basic model (with series E fertility rates) expands at a rate of 1.79 percent annually in 1968-80 andl.13 percent in 1980-85. With the other assump tions of the basic model, total GNP is pro jected to expand at a rate of 4.09 percent annually in 1968-80 and 3.25 percent a year in 1980-85. With the higher fertility rate assumptions (and the resulting lower female participation) of series D, the labor force would expand at a slightly lower rate of 1.74 percent annually in 1968-80 and, all else unchanged, total potential GNP would expand 4.02 percent annually. (See tables 54 and 55.) For 1980-85 the rate of ex pansion of GNP would be moderated only slightly, from 3.25 percent with series E to 3.24 percent with series D. The use of series D population projections to derive the labor force rather than series E would be consistent with the belief that the recent decline in the fertility rate was a temporary phenomenon and that the rate will revert to levels more consistent with the postwar trend. The impact of series F population assump tions is to raise the labor force growth very moderately and, as a result, raise the poten tial GNP growth. For 1968-80 the increase in labor force growth would be from 1.79 to 1.82 percent annually, resulting in a change in potential GNP growth from 4.09 to 4.12 percent a year. For 1980-85 the rise would be from 3.25 to 3.29 percent. The choice of series F over series E would reflect the belief that the 1965-72 decline in the fer tility rates will continue into the future. Of course, it should be pointed out that in the case of both series D and series F the near-term impact is the opposite of what the longer term impact would be. For exam ple, with series F and its lower birth rate assumptions, the near-term impact is to in crease the labor force because more women of childbearing age are drawn into the labor force. However, the longer term effect, say after 1990, would be to lower the labor force, and all else being equal, the potential GNP. 72In developing the basic set of labor force projec tions, the participation rate for all age-sex groups for the year 1990 is estimated first. The methods used in devel oping labor force projections are discussed by Denis F. Johnston in "T h e U. S. Labor Force: Projections to 1 9 90 ,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1973, pp. 3-13. The 1990 participation rates of those groups with rapidly increasing trends are estimated by assuming a continua tion of these trends but at one-half their average annual rate. By fitting a curve to the observed trends and the 1990 end-point, the rates fos the intervening years 1980 and 1985 were obtained by graphic interpolation. 73See Denis F. Johnston, "Population and Labor Force: Projections to 1980 and 1 9 8 5 ,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1973. Labor force participation rates. In the pre ceding discussion of alternative fertility 99 Table 54. Combined effects of population growth and participation rates on labor force projections Labor force levels (thousands) Labor force growth rates 1 Assumption 1968 Basic population (series E): Basic participation ................................................................. Low participation .................................................................... High participation .................................................................... Low population (series D): Basic participation ................................................................ Low participation....................................................................... High participation....................................................................... High population (series F): Basic participation ................................................................. Low participation....................................................................... High participation........................................................................ 1980 1985 1968-85 1968-80 1980-85 82,272 101,809 100,408 101,892 107,7 16 1 0 ' 9l l 108,224 1.60 1.49 1.63 1.79 1.66 1.80 1.13 1.05 1.21 82,272 101,138 99,805 101,221 106,932 105,119 107,413 1.55 1.45 1.58 1.74 1.62 1.74 1.12 1.04 1.20 82,272 102,166 100,730 102,249 108,247 106,280 108,471 1.63 1.52 1.65 1.82 1.70 1.83 1.16 1.08 1.24 1 Average annual rates of change computed as compound interest rates between terminal years. Table 55. S O U R C E: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Projections under alternative assumptions: isolated effects GNP growth rates 1 Growth rates1 Levels Assumption 1968 1980 1985 1968-85 1968-80 1980-85 1968-85 1968-80 1980-85 82,272 101,809 101,138 102,166 1 07,7 16 106,932 108,247 1.60 1.55 1.63 1.79 1.74 1.82 1.13 1.12 1.16 3.84 3.79 3.88 4.09 4.02 4.12 3.25 3.24 3.29 82,272 101,809 100,408 101,892 1 07,7 16 105,811 108,224 1.60 1.49 1.63 1.79 1.66 1.80 1.13 1.05 1.21 3.84 3.72 3.88 4.09 3.95 4.10 3.25 3.16 3.35 Employment (thousands of persons) Effects of unemployment rates: Basic assumption (4 percent)........................................................................ Low growth (5 percent)........................................................................................ High growth (3 percent)....................................................................................... 79,455 97,8 17 96,819 98,815 103,487 102,430 104,545 1.57 1.51 1.63 1.75 1.66 1.83 1.13 1.13 1.13 3.84 3.77 3.91 4.09 3.99 4.19 3.25 3.26 3.26 Public employment (thousands of persons) — Effects of State and local employment: Basic assumption...................................................................................................... Low growth...................................................................................................................... High growth..................................................................................................................... 14,453 17,470 18,370 16,570 19,600 20,600 18,600 1.81 2.11 1.49 1.59 2.02. 1.15 2.33 2.32 2.34 3.84 3.80 3.89 4.09 4.04 4.14 3.25 3.24 3.27 Annual private nonfarm man-hours (millions) — Effects of rates of decline in average annual hours: Basic assumption (- 0.3 percent)................................................................. Low growth (-0.4 percent)................................................................................ High growth (-0.2 percent)................................................................................ 132,040 161,2 77 159,254 163,132 166,851 164,015 169,775 1.39 1.28 1.49 1.68 1.57 1.78 .68 .59 .80 3.84 3.75 3.94 4.09 3.99 4.18 3.25 3.17 3.37 5.02 6.91 6.68 7.16 7.89 7.52 8.30 2.70 2.41 3.0 2.7 2.4 3.0 2.69 2.4 3.0 3.84 3.58 4.13 4.09 3.82 4.37 3.25 2.99 3.55 S OURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor force (thousands of persons) — Effects of population series: Basic assumption (series E ) ............................................................................. Low growth (series D ) ........................................................................................... High growth (series F ) ........................................................................................... Effects of participation rates: Basic assumption...................................................................................................... Low growth (1969-71 levels)........................................................................... High growth (1955-72 trends)........................................................................ Private nonfarm G N P per man-hour (1963 dollars) — Effects of rates of growth: Basic assumption (2.7 percent).................................................................... Low growth (2.4 percent)................................................................................... High growth (3.0 percent).................................................................................. 1 Average annual rates of change computed as compound interest rates between terminal years. 100 sex category are assumed to remain con stant at their 1969-71 levels. The second alternative is based on linear least squares extrapolation of the observed participation rates for each age-sex group during the 1955 to 1972 period. When combined with series E population projections and the other basic assumptions of the model, the first alterna tive results in lower labor force and GNP growth rates, while the second results in increased labor force and GNP growth rates. The effects are shown in table 55. The first participation rate alternative results in a 1985 total labor force projection of 105.8 million persons, 1.9 million below the basic projection of 107.7 million. As a result, the 1968 to 1980 growth rate in the labor force falls from the basic 1.79 percent a year growth to 1.66 percent. The growth rate of GNP falls from 4.09 percent a year to 3.95 percent over the same period. With all other assumptions kept the same as in the basic projections, the effect on total labor force of the first alternative participa tion rate is greater than the series D as sumption and, in addition, has a different pattern. Whereas the series D assumption has little effect on the 1980 to 1985 growth rate of GNP, the low participation assump tion reduces it from the basic projection rate of 3.25 percent to 3.16 percent. The second, higher, participation rate alternative can be seen to have an effect nearly identical to the series F population assumption for the 1968 to 1985 period. However, the pattern of its effect is con siderably different, having a relatively greater impact during the 1980-85 period. During the 1968-80 period it results in an increase in the GNP growth rate of only one-hundredth of 1 percent to 4.10, but from 1980 to 1985 it increases the growth rate by one-tenth of 1 percent to 3.35. Various combinations of population and participation rates have been examined for their combined effects on the level of labor force projections. Table 54 shows the results. The 1985 labor force estimates range from 105.1 to 108.5 million, or from 2.4 percent below the basic projection to 0.7 percent above it. Unemployment rates. The basic model uses a 4-percent unemployment rate for the years 1980 to 1985. The attainment of this ratio by the middle to late 1970’s may pose a great challenge for the economy because of the rapid labor force growth and its dis tribution and the high unemployment rates of the early 1970’s. Some have argued, for example, that a higher unemployment rate is justified as a full-employment standard because no economy can entirely absorb the large influx of secondary workers, young adults 16-24, and women 25-54, which oc curred during the late 1960’s. The assumed growth of jobs needed to absorb the current unemployed and new labor force entrants in a 2- or 5-year span is unprecedented by historical standards. Therefore, an alterna tive possibility is that the U.S. economy will not achieve a 4-percent unemployment rate but will only reach a 5 percent unemploy ment rate. If this assumption is used, the impact is to lower the 1968-80 growth in real GNP from 4.09 to 3.99 percent per year. However, it does not appreciably af fect the 1980-85 projected growth in real GNP since the impact of a 5 percent unem ployment rate is felt only until 1980. (See table 55.)7 4 Alternatively, it would be argued that by 1980 the rate of unemployment might be lowered to 3 percent through a combination of manpower policies and demand manage ment. Using 3 percent as the standard for full employment would raise the 1968-80 growth in real GNP from the 4.09 percent rate in the basic projections to4.19 percent. Again, the effect of this alternative unem ployment rate assumption will be nominal for the 1980-85 projection. Public-private employment mix. Given a projected level of employment, average an nual hours, and productivity, the level of potential GNP can still be affected by dif ferences in the share of total employment in the public sector. This results from the use of the zero productivity growth assump tion for government employment. For exam ple, the growth rate of government output (in real terms) is equal to the growth rate 74 The calculations of the impact of changing unem ployment rates on economic growth do not result from any dynamic analysis of the interaction of these factors. 101 decline is attributable, at least in part, to an increased number of dual or multiple jobholders in the economy and the willing ness of about 25 percent of the women, ages 25-34, entering the labor force to work part time. To the extent that workers are willing, competent part-time workers are desired by industries to fill gaps, for these workers receive lower fringe benefits. Should these recent sharper declines in hours persist through the middle 1970’s, the basic assumption of a 0.3 percent annual rate of decline might be too moderate. Thus, a 0.4 percent a year decline in man-hours might be a possibility. With the sharper decline, the GNP growth rate is lowered. The effect is slightly stronger in the 1968-80 period, reducing the GNP growth rate from 4.09 to 3.99 percent, or by .10 percent, while the 1980-85 growth rate is lowered by .08 percent, from 3.25 to 3..17 percent. If the decline in average hours is as sumed to be a result of a combination of cyclical factors and the availability of work ers willing to work part time, neither of which may continue into the future, a lower rate of decline could prevail. If a 0.2 per cent a year decline in hours is used, the effect is slightly stronger in the 1980-85 period where GNP growth is increased by . 12 percent, as compared to the .09 percent increase for 1968-80. Average annual hours. The basic projections in 1980 and 1985 assume that the recent Considerable attention has been given recently to the possibility of changes in the sharp decline in hours will moderate and standard workweek from the 40-hour, 5-day that the rate of decrease will return to the long-term rate. The economy has witnessed practice which was established by the Fair an increasing utilization of part-time work Labor Standards Act of 1938. Three types ers to complement the longer shopping hours of changes have been discussed and ex or odd-hour services increasingly provided perimented with in a few instances. First, is by businesses. This phenomenon of declin the 40-hour, 4-day workweek which repre ing average hours7 was particularly 6 sents a compression of the workweek rather pronounced between 1965 and 1971 when than a shortening of the hours worked. the rate of decline reached 0.7 percent Second is the possibility of a 4-day work annually, compared to the long-term decline week with less than 40 hours. Finally, there in hours of 0.3 percent annually. The recent is a proposal for a more flexible scheduling of work which gives employees a greater choice of when they work during the week. This last proposal, often referred to as 7 5 It should be pointed out that the effects of changes in public employment would vary slightly depending on "flexi-time,” has attracted considerable in the category of public employment in which the changes terest in European countries. occurred. It would be beyond the scope of this 76As discussed in ch. 1, the concept of average report to discuss all of the possible ramifica hours used in these projections is hours paid, not hours worked. tions of these various changes even if they in its employment, after allowance is made for shifts among the various categories of government employment. Private output growth, however, is equal to the employ ment growth rate plus the productivity growth rate less the rate of decline of aver age hours. Table 55 shows the results of changes in the public share of employment by assuming two alternative levels of State and local government employment.7 5 The low alternative assumes a level of State and local employment 900,000 above the basic 1980 projections and 1 million above the basic 1985 level, or an increase of nearly 1 percent in the public sector share of total employment. The result is to lower GNP growth over the 1968-80 period from 4.09 percent to 4.04 percent. The high alternative consists of a decrease in public employment of 1 percent. In this case, the result is an increase in the GNP growth rate from 1968 to 1980 of .05 percent, up to 4.14 percent a year. Because the rate of growth in public employment in 1980-85 is affected only marginally by these alterna tive public-private employment mixes, the GNP growth rate in this period does not change appreciably as a result of the as sumed change in the public-private em ployment mix. 102 growth of nonfarm productivity. A third ar gument regarding productivity is that there has been no long-term slowdown of produc tivity, just short-term cyclical influences. If this last explanation is valid, the economy should be able to catch up to its long-term rate of growth.7 9 This is what has been assumed in the basic projections. If the hypothesis that the recent slow down in productivity growth resulted from permanent strqctural shifts were accepted, the economy would need some major laborsaving innovations, particularly in the ser vice-producing sector, to boost this labor productivity rate. Also, the need for pollu tion controls, safety equipment, and energy availability may affect productivity growth. If these factors do dominate, a lower rate of productivity growth would be implied. If, for example, a rate of private nonfarm productivity of 2.4 percent, instead of the basic 2.7 percent, were to prevail, the GNP growth would drop to 3.58 percent a year in 1968-85, from the 3.84 percent rate in the basic projections (table 55 ). The rates of growth in potential GNP for 1968-80 and 1980-85 would each drop by about the same percent. Alternatively, some have argued that the goods-producing sector is on the threshold of a productivity boom because the capital investments of the 1960’ s are now being used by industries. A higher output per man-hour growth in the goods sector would more than offset the low productivity growth in services and related industries. Therefore, the rate of productivity growth in 1968-85 could, under this assumption, range up to 3.0 percent annually for the private nonfarm economy. If the 3.0 percent productivity growth is used rather than 2.7, this would raise the 1968-85 GNP growth from 3.84 to 4.13 percent a year. Again, the 1968-80 and 1980-85 GNP growth rates are affected to the same degree. Of the factors discussed which can affect the GNP growth rate, productivity has the greatest impact — at least using the alterna tives outlined in this chapter. Alternative population projections and changes in the public-private employment mix have the were known. 7 7 In the United States most attempts at a 4-day week have been initia ted by management for purposes of sched uling and efficiency. Very little is known about labor’s reaction, although it seems that unions would prefer to have the 40hour standard relaxed if a 4-day week were instituted. The effects on such factors as part-time work, working mothers, labor fa tigue, family life, and moonlighting are un certain and make it difficult to predict the possible effects on average weekly hours. It nevertheless seems reasonable to expect that a reduction in standard working hours per week would accelerate the decline in average hours somewhat. Thus, if a less than 40-hour workweek were to become widespread by 1980 or 1985, potential GNP would tend to grow more slowly. However, widespread acceptance of the compressed workweek might be less likely to affect average hours and GNP growth although its impact on productivity is still an unknown quantity. 7 8 Output per man-hour. The nonfarm rate of increase in output per man-hour has aver aged 2.7 percent annually during the post war period, but this growth has fluctuated, particularly with the stages of the business cycle. For example, productivity grew 2.4 percent annually in 1965-72 but showed virtually no growth for the years 1968-70 and increased 4.1 percent a year from 1970 to 1972. There are three general explana tions commonly given for the low growth in productivity in 1965-72. Some economists cite the growing importance of service-pro ducing industries with their relatively low productivity growth rates. Others argue that the growing importance of secondary workers, whose productivity is lower than that of primary workers, at least as meas ured by wages, has resulted in a lower 77For discussions relating to changes in the standard workweek, see Janice N. Hedges, "N ew Pattern for Working Time,” Monthly Labor Review, February 1973, pp. 3-8; and Janice H. Hedges " A Look at the 4-day Workweek,” Monthly Labor Review, October 1971, pp. 33-37. 7 8 John J. Macut, "Measuring Productivity Under a 4-day W eek,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1974, pp. 55-56. 79See Johnston, l 103 "Projections to 1980 and 19 85 .” been constructed. Their effects on potential GNP and its growth rates are shown in table 56 and are discussed below. It should be emphasized that by combining these factors the dynamic elements in the econo my are still not being captured since the impact that a higher unemployment rate may have on a decline in hours is not being measured directly. Therefore, this combina tion only takes two or more factors and in a static sense combines them. least impact. The first part of this chapter contained a discussion of the impact on the GNP growth rate of changing one major factor at a time. The succeeding section combines some of these factors to discern the impact on GNP growth, but still does not reflect the dynamic interaction in these factors. A lternative combinations of factors The previous section discussed the effects of alternative assumptions about future pop ulation and labor force participation rates, unemployment, average hours, productiv ity, and the public-private employment mix, each under the assumption that the other factors affecting potential GNP remain un changed. Comparison of the impact of each lactor on GNP growth can be done only in a superficial sense inasmuch as there is no common ground upon which to base such a comparison. For example, the effects of a decline of 1 percentage point in the unem ployment rate and an increase in the rate of decline in average hours of 0.1 percent cannot be compared with a common index of sensitivity. Such an index would require probabilistic information regarding the ex pected values and variances of the projec tions, and these are not available. The purpose of this section is to analyze some selected combinations of assumptions for the various factors which were discussed individually in the last section. There are many combinations of the various high or low individual assumptions which could be analyzed. Rather than attempting to show all of the combinations, several cases have Basic projections (case A). Case A is the basic projection. It is shown for purposes of comparison with the other cases. Lowest potential GNP growth (case B). Case B represents the choice of the lowest alternative for each factor in determining potential GNP. Thus, it assumes the follow ing: Series D population projections, con tinuation of the 1969-71 labor force partici pation levels, 5 percent unemployment, de cline of average hours by 0.4 percent an nually, a 2.4 percent rate of productivity growth, and finally, a higher level of govern ment employment. The 1968-80 GNP growth rate is affected more strongly than the 198085 rate. The 1968-80 rate of growth de clines from 4.09 to 3.38 percent or by .71 percentage points, while the 1980-85 rate falls by .48 percentage points to a 2.77percent annual growth rate. Thus, under the low set of assumptions, the slowdown projected for GNP growth after 1980 is not quite as sharp as for the basic projections. Overall, these assumptions result in a 196885 GNP growth rate of 3.20 percent a year, .64 percentage points below the basic rate Table 56. Projected G NP and growth rates under selected combinations of alternative assumptions GNP (b illio n s of 19 63 dollars) Average annual rates of change 1 Com bination 1968 Case Case Case Case Case Case A (b a s ic ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B (a ll lo w .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C (a ll h ig h .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D ................................................................ E ................................................................ F ................................................................ $ 75 9.2 1980 $ 1 ,2 2 8 .2 1,1 3 1 .4 1,310 .6 1 ,2 6 7 .6 1,1 6 9 .5 1,1 6 3 .9 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 1985 $ 1 ,4 4 1 .5 1,2 9 7 .3 1,580 .4 1,5 0 9 .6 1,3 5 7 .8 1,3 8 3 .4 SOURCE: 104 1968-85 19 68 -80 3.84 3.20 4.41 4.1 3 3.48 3.59 4.0 9 3.3 8 4.6 5 4.36 3.67 3.62 Bureau of Labor S tatistics. 19 80 -85 3.25 2.77 3.81 3.56 3.03 3.5 2 of 3.84 percent a year. The projected 1985 GNP falls from $1,441.5 billion (1963 dol lars) to $1,297.3 billion, a reduction of $144.2 billion, or about 10 percent. tivity increase. Along with these conditions, a slower rate of decline in hours appears possible because of tighter labor market conditions and because fewer part-time wom en workers would be in the labor force than under series E assumptions. Thus, case D, in addition to series D population, low par ticipation assumptions, and the basic gov ernment employment levels, includes as sumptions of 3 percent unemployment, 0.2 percent decline in hours, and 3 percent productivity growth. The case D projections result in a higher level of potential GNP compared to the basic model. In 1985 it reaches $1,509.6 billion (1963 dollars), $68.1 billion or 4.7 percent above the basic level. It increased the 1968-85 growth rate from 3.84 percent to 4.13 percent. The 1968-80 growth rate is 4.36 percent and the 1980-85 rate is 3.56. Highest potential GNP growth (case C). Case C shows the results of assuming the high growth alternatives. It assumes: Series F population, continuation of 1955-72 labor force participation rate trends, 3-percent unemployment, a 0.2-percent a year decline in hours, annual nonfarm productivity growth of 3 percent, and the lower level of government employment. The result is a 1985 GNP projection of $1,580.4 billion (1963 dollars), 9.6 percent above the basic level. This means an increase of the 196885 growth rate to 4.41 percent a year or .57 percentage points above the rate in the basic model of 3.84 percent a year. The growth rates for 1968-80 and 1980-85 both increase by the same amount, .56 percent age points. This also results in a slightly higher relative growth rate in the 1980-85 period than in the basic model. Since case B and case C were postulated as the high and low of projected GNP growth rates, it is interesting to note the spread between the case B and case C pro jections. There is a difference of $283.1 billion (1963 dollars) between these projec tions for 1985 and a 1.21 percent a year difference between their 1968-85 growth rates. It is probable that relationships among the assumptions which have not been investigated or discussed so far would make the occurrence of either case B or case C highly unlikely. The remainder of the cases are meant to represent perhaps more rea sonable alternatives for the economy in terms of factors which may affect the growth in real GNP. Lower projections (case E). Case E is the antithesis of case D. All low assumptions in the one are high in the other and viceversa. The result is a GNP estimate for 1985 of $1,357.8 billion (1963 dollars), $83.7 billion below the basic projection. The 1968-85 growth rate is 3.48 percent annually. The 1968-80 rate is lowered to 3.67 percent annually while the relative growth of the 1980-85 period is slightly higher than in case B. Alternative time path (case F). To this point no explicit modifications have been made to the time path in which the as sumed variables move, although patterns of GNP growth have been pointed out. The patterns of productivity, unemployment, and hours have assumed that long-term trends are regained by 1980. In case F an alternative set of assumptions regarding these factors is examined. The levels of government employment, population, and labor force participation are the same as those in the basic projections. The other assumptions can be characterized in gener al as a more gradual attainment of the basic trends. For unemployment, it is as sumed that a 4-percent level cannot be at tained by 1980. Instead a 5-percent unem ployment rate persists to 1980 and 4 per cent is reached thereafter, as the growth of Higher projections (case D). For case D the reasoning runs as follows: If series D popu lation projections are assumed along with the low participation rate, the resulting slower labor force growth will create tighter labor markets, and thus lower unemploy ment rates, than expected in the basic projection. Tight labor markets may tend to encourage more investment in equip ment, thus, pushing up the rate of produc 105 and unemployment. This chapter has explored a number of alternative assumptions regarding the fac tors affecting real GNP. The alternatives selected are believed to encompass the range of reasonable possibilities for the future rate of economic growth. As a matter of fact, the extreme ranges may be im possible because some of the factors used may be contradictory. The levels of real GNP calculated in this chapter are not further traced through to their impact on industry output and employ ment because the time and resources nec essary to do this were not available. How ever, to further explore alternatives to the basic set of projections, the impact of alter native demand structures on employment by industry is explored in chapter 7. the labor force slows down. Average annual hours continue their recent sharp down trend, declining by 0.4 percent annually from 1968 to 1980. After 1980, however, hours decline at the basic rate of 0.3 per cent. Similarly, the sluggish productivity growth of the 1965 -72 period persists to 1980. After 1980, the level of nonfarm productivity grows at its long-term trend of 2.7 percent a year. The level of GNP in 1985 under case F assumptions is $1,383.4 billion (1963 dol lars) with a 1968-85 growth rate of 3.59 percent. As expected, the 1980-85 growth rate of 3.52 percent is larger relative to the 1968-80 period of 3.62 percent than in any of the other cases. This arises because the drop in labor force growth after 1980 is offset by the changes in hours, productivity, 106 Chapter 7. Impact of A lternative Structures of Demand G N P on Employment The 1980 and 1985 demand projections and the resulting projections of employment by industry in the preceding chapters are based on one projection of the rate of growth of GNP as well as the composition of GNP. While in chapter 6 the impact of alternative assumptions on the rate of real economic growth was presented, these al ternatives were not explored in terms of the impact on output and employment by in dustry. The purpose of this chapter is to present data useful in exploring alterna tives to the projected structure of demand and of discerning the probable effects on employment patterns. The alternative dis tribution of demand provides only an illus tration of the employment changes that would result from specific shifts in the com position of demand. Thus, the emphasis in this discussion is to show how shifts in the demand structure and the resulting em ployment requirements can be determined, rather than to construct complete alterna tive models with differing structures of de mand GNP. The procedure for doing this is, first, to examine the employment required for various types of demand. Using these data and making assumptions about shifts in the composition of demand, the probable impact on the projected composition of em ployment by industry can be discerned. Employment associated with various types of demand On the average, producing $1 billion of GNP in 1980 is projected to require 82,703 jobs. Of course, for any one particular com ponent of demand GNP, the employment requirements could fall above or below this average. For the purposes of this discussion, each component of final demand in 1980 and 1985 was set equal to $1 billion (1963 dol lars). This was done to eliminate variations in the job requirements due solely to the relative size of the demand element. It would be misleading to compare the total job requirements arising from personal con sumption expenditures (PCE) to those from Federal Government demand because PCE is projected to be 10 times larger than Fed eral purchases in 1980. The number and distribution by sector of jobs required per $1 billion of expendi tures vary considerably according to the source of demand. For example, $1 billion of demand in private fixed investment is projected to require a total of over 67,000 jobs in 1980 (table 57, with similar data for 1985 shown in table 58), but State and local government demand for education will require nearly 149,000 jobs.8 0 An exami nation of the job requirements by major sector shows a large but perhaps not un expected variation between the employment patterns of investment and educational de mand. To illustrate, 85 percent of the em ployment requirements of State and local government education are concentrated in the direct employment of public servants; private investment, of course, requires none. In the manufacturing sector in 1980, investment purchases are projected to gen erate almost 30,000 jobs per $ 1 billion while demand by State and local education is projected to require only slightly more than 9,000 jobs per $1 billion. Also, the compari son of jobs required per $1 billion in manu facturing shows a better than 3 to 1 varia- 80 These calculations reflect the direct and the rect jobs related to each type of demand. Thus, the associated with investment include not only the making investment goods such as machinery but the jobs in the primary metal industries, mining, embodied in the final investment goods. 1 07, indi jobs jobs also etc., Table 57. Jobs per $1 billion of final demand components, 198Q (Based on data in 1963 dollars) Government demand Sector Federal Total GNP S tate and local Defense T o t a l2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 ,7 0 3 A g ric u ltu re 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,2 1 5 533 M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ons truc tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,996 M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,66 4 Tran sportation, co m m unication, and public u tilitie s .. 4,3 3 2 2,6 4 6 . T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,058 628 Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,664 W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,027 R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 ,63 7 Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ,3 5 5 17,42 0 Other services (including households). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. G overnm ent e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,352 General governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 ,17 2 N ondefense Education Health, w elfare, and sanitation 1 9 6 ,6 9 0 45 5 455 1,907 2 3 ,9 5 7 3 ,4 2 8 2 ,595 553 28 0 2,997 2 ,074 923 955 8,1 8 5 845 5 3 ,5 0 6 8 6 ,4 7 6 - 76 500 6 ,4 8 2 1 4 ,63 2 3,085 2,179 663 243 4 ,0 3 2 2 ,612 1,421 1,590 16,181 2,5 8 4 3 7 ,4 6 6 1 4 8,9 24 278 396 5,189 9 ,1 3 8 3,455 2,110 509 836 216 1,628 - 1,412 1,121 2,0 3 2 1,197 12 5,9 02 1 2 1 ,2 3 2 1,111 437 4 ,8 7 5 1 3 ,3 3 8 3 ,343 2 ,2 0 6 887 250 3 ,9 5 3 2 ,6 5 2 1,301 1,659 2 0 ,2 6 4 1,371 7 0 ,8 8 0 Other 1 1 1 ,9 8 9 271 632 14,201 11,87 4 3 ,5 6 3 2 ,2 4 3 932 38 8 4 ,2 3 6 2,1 8 4 2,0 5 2 2,5 8 2 10 ,47 9 1,266 6 2 ,8 8 5 Private demand Personal consum ption expenditures Durables T o ta l2 ....................................................... Agriculture 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ran sportation, com m unication, and public utilities . T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T ra d e ................................................................ W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other services (including h o u s eh o ld .s). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Governm ent e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . General governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurables Services Fixed investm ent Gross exports 72 ,2 8 6 7 8 ,4 3 2 7 1 ,02 4 6 7 ,7 2 6 4 5 ,9 6 9 359 311 312 2 6 ,8 7 0 3,0 7 6 2 ,1 9 9 563 309 3 5 ,34 5 4,741 30,60 4 1,576 3,619 818 5 ,8 0 3 578 460 2 0 ,8 3 4 3,792 2,765 69 6 331 3 9 ,31 0 6,9 6 8 3 2 ,34 2 2,059 4 ,6 7 0 926 568 300 1,480 3,017 4 ,8 6 6 1,752 1,842 1,272 2 ,254 898 1,356 10,67 0 4 5 ,6 8 5 2,184 436 568 14,21 4 2 9 ,9 6 4 3 ,594 2,5 1 5 773 306 11,480 4 ,3 7 8 7 ,103 1,632 5,161 677 3 ,438 995 400 2 1 ,9 7 4 5,2 4 4 4 ,3 1 0 627 307 5 ,4 0 5 3,951 1,454 1,644 6,1 3 3 736 1 State and local governm ent purchases of w elfare cover only ad m in is NOTE: Negative signs are a result of inpu t-output conventions which trative expenditures and not the benefit payments them selves. record governm ent sales to the private sector as negative purchases. A 2 These calculations were made for all 134 sectors and summed to negative entry results when sales by the governm ent exceed its purchases from the private sector. the level of detail shown. 3 Includes forestry and fisheries and agricultural services (industry SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. sectors 3 and 4 ). tion for these two types of demand; if indi vidual industries are examined, this dif ference magnifies greatly. One case in point will illustrate—investment requires 723 jobs per $1 billion in construction, mining, and oil field machinery while education shows only 28 jobs required per $1 billion, or a ratio of almost 26 to 1. Per $ 1 billion of demand, the job require ments projected for 1980 in the public sec tor range from almost 86,500 jobs for non defense purchases to 149,000 for State and local education in 1980. The private sector ranges from about 46,000 jobs for gross exports to over 78,000 jobs for consumer purchases of nondurable goods. Thus, the range of job requirements projected for 1980 for the various types of public demand 10 8 Table 58. Jobs per $1 billion of final demand components, 1985 (Based on data in 1963 dollars) Government demand Sector Federal Total GNP S tate and local Defense T o ta l2 ....................................................... A g ric u ltu re 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ons truc tion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transportation, com m unication, and public u tilitie s .. Tran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Government e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . General governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 .6 5 0 1,623 438 3,596 16 ,30 2 3,724 2,266 910 548 15,526 3,554 11,972 4 ,1 1 5 16,284 1,179 11 ,86 3 Nondefense Education Health, w elfare, and sanitation 1 8 9 ,6 0 0 336 373 1,976 2 1 ,5 1 9 2 ,9 9 3 2,261 479 253 2 ,669 1,891 778 943 9 ,220 799 4 8 ,7 7 2 8 0 ,0 9 0 -8 9 426 5,842 13,76 7 2,841 1,996 578 267 3,701 2,546 1,155 1,544 16,582 2,4 0 9 33,06 7 147,741 203 313 4 ,9 5 0 7,849 2,9 0 3 1,813 410 680 121 1,383 -1 ,2 6 2 1,015 1,960 990 12 7,4 37 1 1 2 ,9 5 5 870 360 3,890 1 1 ,6 6 8 2 ,9 3 8 1,979 741 218 3,611 2,594 1,017 1,691 19,185 1,293 6 7 ,4 4 9 Other 10 3,3 77 211 528 13,40 3 11 ,01 6 3,151 2,001 800 35 0 3,662 2,005 1,657 2,4 8 5 10,20 3 1,191 5 7 ,52 7 Private demand Personal consum ption expenditures Durables T o ta l2 ....................................................... A g ric u ltu re 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C ons truc tion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tran sportation, co m m unication, and public u tilitie s .. T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Governm ent e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . General g overnm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurables Services 64 ,2 7 5 255 257 237 2 3 ,55 7 2 ,628 1,858 482 288 31 ,70 5 4,1 9 8 2 7 ,50 7 1,476 3,4 4 7 713 6 8 ,8 9 8 4,351 46 6 346 17,985 3,270 2,3 7 9 598 293 3 5 ,2 9 3 6 ,1 9 6 2 9 ,0 9 7 1,923 4 ,4 6 2 802 6 2 ,2 6 6 384 245 1,161 2 ,5 5 8 4 ,0 5 3 1,439 1,552 1,062 1,798 765 1,032 9,7 6 9 4 0 ,4 9 7 1,801 Fixed investm ent Gross exports 59,561 320 472 12,666 2 6 ,42 3 3 ,020 2 ,108 638 274 9 ,5 7 6 3,791 5,786 1,521 4 ,9 6 8 595 3 8 ,53 3 2 ,3 9 8 770 289 18,490 4,3 4 5 3,555 524 266 4 ,516 3,362 1,154 1,484 5,615 62 6 1 S tate and local governm ent purchases of w elfare cover only ad m in is NOTE: Negative signs are a result of inpu t-output conventions which record governm ent sales to the private sector as negative purchases. A trative expenditures and not the be nefit payments themselves. 2 These calculations were made for all 134 sectors and summed to negative entry results when sales by the governm ent exceed its purchases the level of detail shown. from the private sector. 3 Includes forestry and fisheries and agricultural services (indu stry SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. sectors 3 and 4 ). exceeds the job requirements for private sector demands. This difference is partly due to the labor intensiveness of public activities. However, this difference also fol lows from the conceptual nature of the sys tem used in making these calculations. Since private sector demand not only gener ates production requirements but also gen erates profits and depreciation and the 10 9 public sector does not, if the job require ments for these other elements, in the pri vate sector were included in the calcula tions, this would narrow the job requirement differences somewhat. This brief comparison of final demand components makes it evident that the net gain or loss of job opportunities will depend on the nature of the sectors affected and to State and local governments, resulting from the Federal funds freed by the lower defense purchases. For each $1 billion of final demand in 1980, defense generated 96,690 jobs8 and 2 State and local health, welfare, and sanita tion purchases required 121,232 jobs. The total effect of this shift in demand of $10 billion would be a net increase of 245,420 job opportunities. One of the major differ ences between defense purchases and health, welfare, and sanitation purchases is found in the job requirements in the governmental activity itself, or the direct jobs. Referring back to table 57, it can be seen that 70,880 government jobs per $1 billion are projected to be required in 1980 for State and local government health, wel fare, and sanitation activities, while the comparable figure for defense requirements is 53,506. Therefore, a $10 billion demand shift would lower Federal jobs by 535,000 and increase State and local jobs by 709,000, or a net increase of over 170,000 jobs. The variation in job requirements by ma jor industrial sector between these two types of final demand is also quite signifi cant. Health, welfare, and sanitation pur chases in 1980 are projected to require nearly three times the number of jobs in construction that defense requires. Another difference in the employment requirements of these two demand components is in the service industries. Compared to purchases for defense, purchases for health, welfare, and sanitation are projected to require al most three times as much service industry employment per $10 billion. The difference between defense and State and local health, welfare, and sanitation employment re quirements in the service industries is partially explained by the fact that military hospitals and other military service facili ties are not included in the private sector service industries. In manufacturing, the difference in job requirements between two categories of not on the quantative changes in fi .al de mand alone. Average versus incremental job requirements In using the "employment per $1 bil lion of demand” presented in this chapter, an important limitation must be kept in mind. The data provided represent aver age and not incremental job requirements. The use of average as opposed to incre mental manpower requirement factors im plies that a change in output would result in a proportional increase in labor inputs. However, an incremental change in output could also be met by productivity changes, changes in capital and labor utilization rates, and, to some extent, inventories. Thus, many changes in employment re sulting from changes in output would not necessarily be proportional. As a result, these manpower requirement factors should be considered as rough estimates of the relative labor requirement in a particular year for the various components of final demand and not as a measure of actual jobs which would result from shifts in de mand from one category to another. Impact of shifts in the structure of demand Assuming that the level of total final demand is fixed for the year 1980 (or 1985), alternative demand structures can be postulated by decreasing demand in one component by a fixed amount, such as $10 billion, and increasing another component by a like amount. One alternative that might be analyzed would be a cutback in defense expenditures offset by an equal in crease in nondefense Federal expenditures. The scenario for such a change could be that of an arms limitation pact allowing a cutback in defense and an increase in spending for State and local government purchases for health, welfare, and sanita tion.'8 The State and local spending might 1 follow from increased Federal grants-in-aid 82 The job requirements per $1 billion of defense pur chases include the Armed Forces. It could be argued with some justification that changes in defense expendi tures may not result in any change in the level of the Armed Forces. 8' i t should be noted that State and local govern ment purchases for walfare cover only welfare adminis trative costs and not the benefits paid to recipients. no demand is equally impressive. In 1980, $10 billion of defense purchases would re quire more than 100,000 more manufactur ing jobs than health, welfare, and sanita tion activities of State and local govern ments (table 59). Because of the variation in skills required by the industries which make up the manufacturing sector, a de tailed look at the sector’s composition by industry is a more accurate indicator of possible job changes. Defense purchases are concentrated in aircraft, ordnance, elec tronics, and shipbuilding while health, wel fare, and sanitation purchases are con centrated in the food, drug, and paper industries. Over 56 percent of the employment in manufacturing required by defense expendi tures is located in the few industries shown in table 59 and over 37 percent is found in aircraft, ship and boat building, and radio and transmitting devices. The health, wel fare, and sanitation employment require ments of State and local governments are not as concentrated, so that only 21 percent of the total employment in manufacturing is accounted for by the selected industries shown in table 59. Factors other than a policy shift such as the one outlined above from defense to State and locel government purchases could, of course, be of concern to users of these data. It is possible, for example, to want to explore the manpower implications of different levels of any of the categories of demand for many reasons — not the least of which may be the belief that the pro jections for any one demand category may be too high or low. For example, it may be that the consumer durables projections are judged to be too high (or low) and that the Table 59. Manufacturing jobs per $10 billion of Federal defense resulting shift in demand might affect con purchases and State and local government purchases of health, sumer services. Such a shift of $10 billion welfare, and sanitation, 1980 of demand from consumer durables to ser (Based on data in 1963 dollars) vices would have little net impact on total employment in 1980 (12,600 jobs) but State and local would have a very significant impact at government Defense health, welfare, the major sector level (table 60). For exam Industry and s a n ita tio n 1 ple, durable goods expenditures by con Percent Percent Jobs Jobs sumers require jobs principally in manufac distribution dis tribution turing and trade, while consumer purchases Total m a n u fac tu rin g. . . . . . . 23 9 ,5 7 0 . 100.0 133,381 100.0 of services have a minimal impact in these 18 Guided missiles and space sectors. Ten billion dollars of consumer vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.010 2 84 6.3 2 .1 durable goods requires 269,000 jobs in . 8,900 3.7 59 19 Other ordnance................ (3 ) manufacturing; $10 billion of consumer ser 2,8 4 0 1.2 7,086 5.3 20 Food p ro d u c ts................. . 3.4 . 31 Paper p ro d u c ts................ .9 4,4 7 4 2,1 2 0 vices requires 30,000 jobs in this sector. 39 D ru g s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 .1 9,584 7.2 One industry alone in manufacturing (motor 71 Computers and peripheral vehicles) shows larger manpower require 2 ,228 1.7 eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 ,490 1.5 80 O ther electronic ments related to consumer durable pur co m m unication chases than all of the job requirements in eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 4 ,0 4 0 10.0 2.1 2,8 1 8 manufacturing for consumer services. In 12 ,1 9 0 1.4 ....... 5.1 1,888 81 Electronic com ponents .4 84 A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 ,9 3 0 . 16.3 477 consumer services, the converse is true — 85 Ship and boat building and very high employment requirements for re p a ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 ,6 1 0 280 11.5 .2 consumer services — with several individual All o th e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 4,2 80 43.4 104,430 78 .2 sectors (other personal services, doctors 1 State and local governm ent purchases of w elfare cover only a d m in is and dentists, hospitals, and nonprofit or trative expenditures and not the benefit payments themselves. 2 The em ploym ent in this industry for S tate and local purchases re ganizations) having larger manpower re sults from its close tie to the a irc ra ft industry, which m anufactures guided quirements than the total service sector job missile parts If civilian and m ilitary a irc ra ft were separated, S tate and local requirements for consumer durable pur purchases would not require em ploym ent in the guided missile industry. chases. The difference between the two cate 3 Less than 0.0 5 percent. gories of consumer expenditures is particu NOTE: Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix larly dramatic in terms of the job requiretable A -2. 111 ments in 1980 and 1985 is one indication of the needs and priorities of the economy. sumer services, by major sector and selected industries, 1980 Changes in policy, shifts in consumer taste, Consumer services Consum erdurables or other factors can affect the projected Percent Percent Sector and industry levels of demand, and thus employment. Jobs distribution Jobs distribution Some insight is gained by offering an exami nation of alternative demand categories 100.0 7 1 0 ,2 4 0 100.0 T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 2 ,8 6 0 and their associated labor requirements. .8 .5 3,590 5,680 A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . These two examples serve only as illustra .4 .4 3,000 M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,110 37.2 3 0 ,17 0 4.2 M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 6 8 ,7 0 0 tions of what can be done in the way of (i) 25 ,10 6 3.5 43 29 Household fu r n itu .r.e . . . . . examining the impact of shifts in the struc 124 (i) 76 Household applian ces ..... 9,607 1.3 ture of demand on employment as a whole 137 5.5 83 M o tor ve h ic le .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 ,11 7 . O ) 87 M iscellaneous T ran sp o rta and by industry. tion e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,763 4 1.1 ( i ) Many other alternative demand struc Tran sportation, co m m un ica tures can be developed in a manner simi 4.3 4 8 ,6 6 0 6.9 tion, and public u tilitie s . .. 30,760 3.2 48.9 2 2 ,54 0 Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3 ,4 5 0 lar to the analysis just described. A de Finance, insurance, and crease in the personal income tax rate and 15.0 real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,760 2.2 106,7 00 the resulting increase in personal consump 5.0 4 5 6 ,8 5 0 64 .3 Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 6 ,19 0 8.1 Ill O ther personal services.... 1,357 .2 5 7 ,84 3 tion expenditures or an increase in invest 118 H ealth services ment from changes in business tax rates 6 8 .9 5 0 9.7 377 .1 . except hospitals............ could cause a shift in employment patterns. (i) 8 2 ,03 4 11.6 81 119 H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121. N onprofit organizations.... 11 ,30 0 1.6 3 6 ,6 4 0 5.2 Many policy actions could cause the em ployment patterns in the economy to 1 Less than 0.0 5 p e rc e n t. change. Data and examples provided in NOTE: Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix this chapter illustrate the use of these man table A -2. power requirement factors for discerning SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. the possible job impact of demand patterns ments in the wholesale and retail trade sec different from those explored in earlier tors. Consumer durable purchases are pro chapters.8 3 jected to require over 350,000 jobs in 1980 per $10 billion; consumer services, on the 83 As a part of research undertaken for the Man other hand, are projected to require only power Administration, BLS has in press a study giving 22,500 jobs for the same level of purchases. procedures for developing manpower requirements by The composition of employment require industry and occupation for alternative types of demand. Table 60. Jobs per $10 billion of consumer durables and con Chapter 8. Comparison of Previous and Revised 1980 Projections this publication, the level of the labor force projection depends on, among other factors, the census population series chosen, as well as on projected labor force participation rates. The previous labor force projections were derived using census series C popu lation projections while the present labor force projection is based on census series E. The major difference between these two series is the much lower fertility rate for women assumec. in series E. This change in population series results in a shift in the female population awT from women with ay children under 5 to women without children under 5, who, as described in chapter 1, traditionally have higher labor force parti cipation rates. Thus, the effect of basing the present projection of the labor force on census series E is to increase the labor force over the previously projected levels. Also affecting the labor force are shifts in Factors determining real GNP the participation rates themselves. In gener al, the participation of women in the labor The revisions in the factors determining force increased rapidly in the late 1960’s real GNP, although individually large, are and early 1970’s. These recent trends have in the main offsetting so that the overall had the effect of increasing female labor growth in real GNP for 1965-80 is lowered force participation rates in the current set by only 0.1 percent a year in the current of projections ever previous expectations. set of projections. The first of these factors, Thus, both of the factors revised in the cur the projection of the size of the labor force rent set of projections have the effect of in 1980, was increased by 1.1 percent, re increasing the labor force projections for presenting an increase of 1.1 million per 1980 (table 61). sons over the previously projected level. The rate of unemployment is assumed to There are two major factors underlying be 4 percent in both sets of projections. this upward shift in the projected level of However, the unemployment level is up by the labor force. As is stated elsewhere in 1.9 percent in the current set of projections. Basically this increase results from two 84 Wherever possible in the following discussion dol changes. First, the labor force projection has increased. Second, the assumed level lar items are expressed in a common price base for the purpose of greater ease in comparison. The most nota of the Armed Forces was reduced from 2.7 ble exception is in the discussion comparing total output million to 2 million persons in the present projections by industry where earlier projections were set ol projections. Thus, the increase in the available only in 1958 dollars and revised figures in civilian labor force is larger than that in 1963 dollars. However, since industry deflators at the the total labor force. The consequence of most detailed level would not cause any changes in composition, the growth rates would not be affected. this is a larger increase in the number of The purpose of this chapter is to com pare previously published projections of the U. S. economy in 1980 with those pre sented in this bulletin. Several alternative 1980 projections were presented in the previous study {Patterns of U S. Economic . Growth, Bulletin 1672, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1970). For the purposes of this comparison, the projections developed with an assumed 4.0 percent rate of unemploy ment are used. The discussion in this chapter covers, first, the macroprojections, or the major determinants of real gross national product. Following this is a comparison of the pro jections of the distribution of real GNP by major demand categories. Finally, the industry projections of output and employ ment are compared.8 4 113 Table 6 1. Major determinants of supply G NP: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections Levels Percent change, 1980 1 to 198011 Projected Category 1965 19801 1980 II 77,17 7 3 ,3 6 6 73,811 3 ,8 7 8 77 ,68 9 65 ,6 9 5 2,0 5 2 134.8 4.21 6 1 7 ,8 50 .8 56 7.0 . Labor force (th o u s a n d s .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Unem ployed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Employed (p e rs o n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Adjustm ent fac to r (to jo b s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Em ploym ent (jo b s ) (th o u s a n d .s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private em p lo y m en.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Average annual man-hours — private. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Tota l private man-hours (b illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GNP per m an-hour (1 9 5 8 d o lla rs. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total GNP (billio n s of 1 9 58 d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Government o u tp u.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private G N P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1968 8 2 ,2 7 2 2,8 1 7 7 9 ,4 5 5 5 ,418 8 4 ,8 7 3 7 0 ,4 2 0 2 ,000 140.9 4 .5 9 7 0 7 .6 59.7 6 4 7 .9 1 0 0 ,7 2 7 3,918 9 6 ,8 0 9 5,225 101,8 67 8 3 ,5 5 2 1,977 165.2 6.54 1.1 5 6 .9 75.9 1 ,081 .0 101,8 09 3,992 97 ,81 7 6 ,259 104,0 76 8 6 ,60 6 1,920 166.3 6.46 1,146.7 73.1 1,073.6 1.07 1.89 1.04 22.47 2.17 3.66 -2 .8 8 0.67 - 1.22 - 0.88 - 3.65 - 0.68 Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1 From 1965 1965-198 01 Labor force (th o u s a n d s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Unem ployed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Employed (p e rs o n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A djustm ent fa c to r (to jo b s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Em ploym ent (jo b s ) (th o u s a n d s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private em ploym ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Average annual man-hours— private .................. Total private man-hours (b illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GNP per m an-hour (1 9 5 8 d o lla r .s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total GNP (billio n s of 19 58 d o lla rs ) ................... Governm ent o u tp u.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private G N P. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.0 1.8 - .1 1.8 1.6 - .3 1.4 3.0 4.3 2.7 4.4 1965-198011 D iffere n tial 1.9 1.1 19 13 2.0 19 0.1 .1 .1 1.4 .2 .3 -.2 .0 -.1 -.1 -.2 .2 - 5 1.4 29 4.2 2.5 4.4 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCE: From 1 9 68 1 9 6 8 -1 9 8 0 1 1.7 2.8 1.7 - .3 1.5 1.4 - .1 1.3 3.0 4 .2 2.0 4.4 1 9 68 -80 II D iffere n tial 1.8 3.0 1.8 1.2 1.7 1.7 - .3 1.4 2.9 4.1 1.6 4 .3 0 .1 .2 .1 1.5 .2 .3 - .2 .1 -.1 -.1 -.4 -.1 NOTE: 19 80 I is from previous set of 19 80 projection s (4-pe m o del) published in Patterns of . S . Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (B uU reau of Labor Statistics , 1 9 7 0 ). 1 9 80 II is from cu rre n t set Bureau of Labor Statistics. converted to 1958 dollars for comparability purposes. conversion factor, combined with the slight increase in the projection of employment on a persons basis, accounted for an in crease of almost 2.2 percent in the pro jected level of employment (on a jobs con cept), or an increase of slightly more than 2.2 million jobs. It is interesting to analyze this increase in employment by sector: unemployed than in the previous pro jections. These changes in the projected levels of the labor force and unemployment had the net effect of increasing employment (on a persons concept) by just over 1 million (or approximately 1 percent) between the pre vious and the current projections. In con verting projected employment levels from persons to jobs, a conversion factor based on a representative historical period is used. In the previous set of 1980 projections, the conversion factor was based on the 1965 ratio. In the present set of projections it was rebased to the 1967-69 period. The effect of this change is to increase the con version factor by 22.5 percent from the previous level. This large change in the Previous 1980 projections Revised 19 80 projections P erc en t Percent Em ploym ent distri- Em ploym ent distri(thousands) bution (thousands) bution T o ta l em ploym ent. . . . . . . . . .... .. P riv a te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... .. fe d e ra l G o v e rn m e n............ .... t M ilita r y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... . C iv ilia n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and local g o v e rn m e n t,.. .... 114 19 1,8 67 10 0.0 8 3 ,55 2 8 2 .0 4 ,900 4.9 2,700 2.7 2 ,200 2.2 13,41 5 13.1 10 4,0 76 8 6 ,60 6 4 ,075 2 ,000 2,075 13,395 10 0.0 33 .2 3.9 1.9 2.0 12.9 The movement has been towards increasing the private sector’s share of employment. The decline in the public share has occurred at all levels of government but is particu larly large for the military. In this set of projections, the projected level of average annual hours fell below the previous projection by 2.9 percent. Histori cally, average annual hours have been de clining. The rate of decline accelerated, however, in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s, thus accounting for the more severe de cline in average annual hours in the cur rent set of projections. The decline in annual hours in the private sector of the economy is 0.1 percent a year in 1968-80 in the previous set of projections compared to 0.4 percent a year in the current set. To a considerable extent the decline in average hours tended to offset the projected employment increases. Yet, despite this drop in average hours, the projection of total private man-hours still increased by almost 1.0 percent. This is because the very large increase in private employment more than outweighed the lower projection of average annual hours. The projection of GNP per man-hour de creased by 1.2 percent from the previously projected level. This is due basically to a change in the underlying assumption re garding the rate of growth of nonfarm productivity. In the previous set of pro jections this rate of growth was assumed to be 2.8 percent a year. Due to changes in the long-term rate this assumption of private nonfarm productivity has been re set at 2.7 percent a year, thus: resulting in a slightly lower projection of GNP per man hour in 1980 in the present projections. Combining these factors, the effect on real GNP is to lower the 1980 projection by 0.9 percent below the previous projec tion for 1980 (in real terms). The growth rate in real GNP in 1965-80 has been lowered to 4.2 percent a year from 4.3 per cent in the previous set of projections. For 1968-80 the growth rate in real GNP is lowered from 4.2 percent in the previous projections to 4.1 percent in the current set. The distribution of GNP by contributing sector remains remarkably unchanged be tween the two sets of projections: Previous 1980 projections GNP (billio n s of 1 9 6 3 dollars) Total G N P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1 ,1 5 6 .9 P riv a te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1 , 0 8 1 .0 G ove rn m en .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 .9 Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 .4 M ilita r y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5 C ivilian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.9 State and local .................. 52.6 Percent distribution 100.0 Revised 19 80 projections GNP (b illio n s of 1 9 63 dollars Percent distribution $ 1 ,1 4 6 .7 93 .4 1 ,0 7 3 .6 93 .6 6.6 73.1 6.4 2.0 20 .3 1.8 .9 7.9 .7 1.1 12 .4 1 4.6 52 .9 4.6 About the only change of significance is the military constant-dollar wage bill, which has declined slightly because of the lower assumed level of the Armed Forces. The other government sectors have main tained their share of GNP between the two sets of projections while the distribution between public and private is remarkably stable. Distribution of demand GNP The distribution of demand GNP among its major components changed only moder ately between the two sets of projections— in some cases it was difficult to isolate the contributing factors. While total personal consumption expen ditures increased their share of GNP by 1980 by just over 0.6 percent, the major components of personal consumption changed more radically (table 62). Pur chases of both durable and nondurable goods by consumers are higher than pre viously expected levels, mainly due to in creased consumption of autos (durables) and food (nondurables). These increases were offset to some extent by a lower pro jection of housing services as the housing slowdown is expected to have its full effect in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s. Gross private domestic investment in the current set of projections increases its share of 1980 GNP by less than 0.3 per cent. This figure is somewhat misleading however, as there are some sharper shifts within the components of investment. The projected level of nonresidential fixed in vestment, for example, has increased its 115 100.0 ginning in the late 1970’s also appear in residential fixed investment as it decreased its share of GNP by approximately 0.2 per cent below the previous set of projections. Net exports as currently projected are moderately lower as a percent of GNP (by just over 0.3 percent). However, the compo nents of net exports exhibit more startling changes from the previous set of pro- share of GNP over the previous 1980 pro jection by almost 0.8 percent. For the most part, this is due to a higher level of invest ment in producers’ durable equipment than was previously expected in 1980. This higher level reflects both the higher levels of recent investment and investment needs related to pollution control. The effects of the leveling off in housing expenditures be Table 62. G NP by major demand category: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections Billions of 1958 dollars Percent change 1980 1 Projected Category 1965 1968 19801 198011 Gross national product. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$617.8 .. $70 7.6 $1,156.9 $1,146.4 -0 .9 2 452.6 80.7 196.9 175.0 105.7 99.1 75.8 22.7 53.2 23.3 6.6 .9 45.6 44.7 148.4 78.9 61.7 17.2 69.5 751.9 132.1 293.4 326.4 184.8 169.8 129.3 36.2 93.1 40.5 15.0 9.5 78.5 69.0 208.9 84.3 49.0 35.3 124.6 753.4 147.9 303.9 301.6 186.8 175.0 137.0 37.8 99.2 38.0 11.8 5.5 103.5 98.0 200.7 74.3 50.4 23.9 126.4 .21 11.96 3.58 - 7.60 1.08 3.06 5.96 4.42 6.55 - 6.17 -2 1.3 3 -4 2 .1 1 31.84 42.03 -3 .9 3 - 11 86 2.86 - 32.29 1.44 Personal consumption expenditures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397.7 Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.6 . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .178.6 . Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152.5 . Gross private domestic investment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.2 Fixed investment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90.1 Nonresidential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3 Structures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.3 Producers’ durable equipment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44.0 Residential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23.8 Change in business inventories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 Net exports of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Exports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37.4 Imports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31.2 Government purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 .7 Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57.9 . Defense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43.3 . Nondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.6 State and local. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56.8 . to 198011 Percent distribution 1965 1968 19801 198011 Gross national p ro d u c.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Personal consum ption ex p e n d itu re .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 .37 . Durable goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.78 . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.91 S e rv ice s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 4 .68 . Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.06 . Fixed in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4.58 . N o n re s id e n tia l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.73 S tru ctu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61 Producers’ durable e q u ip m e n .t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.12 R esidential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.85 . Change in business in v e n to rie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.48 N et exports of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.00 .. E x p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.0 5 Im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.05 Governm ent purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.57 F ederal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 .37 . Defense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 .01 Nondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 6 S ta te and lo c al. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 0 . 6 3 .9 6 11.40 27 .8 3 2 4 .7 3 14.94 14.01 10.71 3.21 7.50 3.30 .93 .13 6.44 6.31 20 .97 11.15 8.72 2.43 9.82 65 .09 11.44 2 5 .40 28 .25 16 .00 14 .70 11.19 3.13 8.06 3.51 1.30 .82 6.80 5.98 18 .09 7.30 4 .2 4 3.06 10.79 65 .7 2 12.90 26.51 26.31 16.29 15.27 11.95 3.30 8.65 3.32 1.02 .48 9.0 3 8.55 17.51 6.4 8 4.4 0 2.0 8 11.03 See foo tn o te s at end of table. 116 Table 62. G NP by major demand category: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections—Continued Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1 From 1965 Category 1 9 65 -198 0 1 19 65 -198 0 Gross national p ro d u c t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal consum ption ex p e n d itu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S erv ice s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fixed in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n re s id e n tia l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tru ctu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producers’ durable e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . R esidential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Change in business in v e n to rie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... Net exports of goods and services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E x p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Government purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Defense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and loc al. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . From 1968 II D iffe r 19 6 8 -1 9 8 0 1 1968-80 II D iffe r ential ential 4.3 4.2 -0 .1 4.2 4.3 4.7 3.4 5.2 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.3 5.2 3.6 3.5 2.9 5.1 5.4 4.1 2.6 .8 6.1 5.4 4.4 5.5 3.6 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.9 3.6 5.6 3.2 1.8 -.8 7.0 7.9 3.8 1.7 .1 .8 .2 -.6 .0 .2 .4 .3 .4 -.4 -1 .7 -3 .7 1.9 2.5 -.3 -.9 .2 -2 .8 .1 4.3 4.2 3.4 5.3 4.7 3.7 4.5 4.0 4.8 4.7 7.1 22.0 4.6 3.7 2.9 .6 - 1.9 6.2 5.0 1.0 3.3 5.5 4.1 4.3 5.2 3.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.1 4.3 5.3 4.2 4.8 16.3 7.1 6.8 2.6 .5 - 1.7 2.8 5.1 -0 .1 .0 1.0 .3 -.7 .2 1.2 .6 .3 .5 -.5 -2 .3 -3 .7 2.5 3.1 -.3 -1 .1 .2 -3 .4 .1 1 Compound interest rates between term in al years. SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Comm erce, Economic Analysis converted to 1958 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; NOTE: 1 9 8 0 1 is from previous set of 1 9 8 0 projections ( 4-percent basic projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics, m odel) published in Patterns o f U.S. Econom ic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (Bu reau of Labor S tatistics, 1 9 7 0 ). 1980 II is from current set o f projections converted to 1958 dollars for com parability purposes. jections. Previously, exports were expected to account for 8.8 percent of real GNP in 1980. However, due to higher projections for a broad range of export items as well as higher projected returns on U. S. invest ment abroad, gross exports are now ex pected to be approximately 9 percent of GNP in 1980. This implies an expected rate of growth of exports of 7.1 percent in 196880 as opposed to the previous projection of 4.6 percent a year. Import projections also reflect much higher rates of growth than were previously expected, mainly for crude and refined petroleum products.8 5 The 1968-80 growth rate differential (be tween current and the previous set of pro jections) for gross imports is 3.1 percent compared to 2.4 percent for gross exports. As a whole, the government share of GNP is expected to be 0.6 percent less than was previously expected. Within gov ernment, however, Federal defense spend ing is up slightly due to expected extensive fleet rebuilding that was not considered in the previous set of projections. Federal non defense spending is considerably lower in this set of projections because expenditures for space programs are no longer expected to experience large growth as they were in the previous projections. State and local government expenditures have increased their share of GNP slightly as expenditures on health and welfare as well as for general government are expected to increase more rapidly than in the previous 1980 projec tions. B5This reflects the assumption used in the current set of projections that the gap which is expected be tween supply and demand of energy will be met largely by increases in imported crude and refined petroleum products. Agriculture is not only expected to con tinue its historical decline as a portion of GNP (as measured by gross product ori ginating) but to do so at a more rapid rate Changes in gross product originating 117 Table 63. Gross product originating by major sector: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections Percent change 19 801 to 1980 II Billions of 1958 dollars Sector 1968 19801 1980 II T o ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $.6 .1 7 .8 . . $ 707.6 $ 1 ,1 5 6 .9 $ 1 ,1 4 6 .4 -0 .9 2 A g ric u ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 4.7 . M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4.8 . C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23.5 M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .190.3 . 59 .3 Tran sp o rtatio n , co m m un ication, and public u tilitie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105.0 ... Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4 O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 7.5 . Governm ent and governm ent en terp rise.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58.1 . . O ther 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.2 24 .8 16.3 24.1 2 2 0 .8 70.1 119.6 95.5 65 .8 68 .6 2.0 35.9 20.2 61.5 34 9.2 125.4 185.6 179.6 114.1 73.1 12.3 26.8 18.7 31.9 361.5 139.1 20 0 .3 16 2.0 119.4 85 .8 1.2 - 2 5 .3 5 -7 .4 3 - 4 8 .1 3 3.52 10.93 7.92 -9 .8 0 4.65 17.37 - 90.24 1965 Percent distribution 1965 1968 19801 1980 II T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.0 ... 100.0 100.0 10 0.0 A g ric u ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.4 C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8 M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30.8 . 9.6 .. . Tran sp o rtatio n , co m m un ication, and public u tilitie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.0 . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5 O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 9.4 Governm ent and governm ent en terp rise.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O ther 1 ' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 3.5 2.3 3.4 31.2 9.9 16.9 13.5 9.3 9.7 .3 3.1 1.7 5.3 30.2 10.8 16.0 15.5 9.9 6.3 1.2 2.3 1.6 2.8 31 .5 12.1 17.5 14.1 10.4 7.5 .2 Average annual rates of c h a n g e 2 From 1968 From 1965 1965 19 8 0 1 1965-198011 D iffe r 19 68 -1 9 8 0 1 ential 1 9 68 -80 II D iffe r ential T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.2 - 0.1 4 .2 4.1 - 0.1 A g ric u ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 . M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 T ran sportation, co m m un ication, and public u tilitie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 5.1 T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 Governm ent and governm ent en terp rise s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 O t h e r 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.8 .6 1.6 2.0 4.4 5.9 4.4 4.5 5.0 2.7 0 - 1.9 - .5 - 4.4 .3 .8 .5 -.7 .4 1.1 -1 6 .8 3.1 1.8 8.1 3.9 4.9 3.7 5.4 4.7 .6 164 .7 1.1 2.4 4.2 5.9 4.4 4.5 5.1 1.9 2.4 - 7 -5 .7 .3 1.0 .7 -.9 .4 1.3 -2 0 .6 1 __ l l ! __ 1 Contains value added in rest of th e world, households, and inventory NOTE: 1980 I is from previous set of 1 9 80 projections (4-p e rce n t basic valuation ad justm ent. m o del) published in Patterns of U.S. Economic G rowth, B ulletin 1672 (B u 2 Compound interest rates between term inal years. reau of Labor S tatistics, 1 9 7 0 ). 19 80 II is from cu rrent set of projections converted to 1 9 58 dollars fo r co m parability purposes. SOURCE: 118 Bureau of Labor S tatistics. Table 64. Industries for which projections of domestic output growth rates differed by more than 2 percentage points Previous projections Industry 1965 dom estic output 19 80 dom estic output Billions of 1958 dollars 26 M iscellaneous fab ricated textile p ro d u .c. ts. . . . .. . . 4 3 ,4 4 Rubber and plastic p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Metal co ntain e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to.rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 73 Service industry m achin es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. $ 3.3 12.3 2.6 2.9 4.3 $ 5.7 30.4 4.2 5.2 10.9 ’ Average annual rates of change computed as compound interest between term inal years. NOTE: table A -2. Revised projections Growth rate 1 9 6 5 -8 0 ' 3.6 6.2 3.2 4.1 6.4 1965 dom estic 1980 dom estic Growth rate output outpu t 1 9 6 5 -8 0 ' Billions of 1963 dollars $ 3.7 12.2 2.7 2.9 4.2 SOURCE: $ 8.5 56.1 5.9 8.3 15.2 5.7 10.7 5.4 7.3 9.0 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix showed a growth differential of 2.1 points. This is mainly due to greater expected growth in demand for the output of this industry as knit goods increase their share of the clothing market. The rate of growth in the rubber and plastic products industry increased greatly over the previous pro jections for 1965-80. This is primarily a result of larger expected growth in the in termediate uses of these products. Rubber and plastic products are more and more being put to new uses as well as substitut ing for other materials in the production process. It is felt that this trend will con tinue at a more rapid rate than was pre viously projected. The relatively recent shift away from glass as a packaging material (primarily in the processed food industry) has caused the expected rate of growth of output of the metal containers industry to increase by 2.2 percentage points in this set of projections over the previous projec tion. The engines, turbines, and generators industry is expected to grow much more rapidly than past projections show as the demand for electric power increases. Finally, service industry machine output showed a growth differential of 2.6 percentage points as intermediate uses for the output of this industry are expected to grow more rapidly than the previous set of projections sug- than was previously projected. (See table 63). The same holds true in the mining sec tor, which accounts for 1.6 percent of GNP in the current 1980 projections as opposed to 1.7 percent in the previous set of pro jections. Four sectors — manufacturing; transportation, communications, and pub lic utilities; wholesale and retail trade; and governm ent86—have significantly in creased their share of GNP over previously projected levels. Two other sectors —con struction; and finance, insurance, and real estate — underwent significant declines in their shares of GNP from the last set of projections. The other services sector main tained a roughly constant share of GNP between both sets of projections. C h a n g e s in in d u s try o u tp u t a n d e m p lo y m e n t Output. At the industry level of detail, there were pronounced changes in output projections.8 Five industries exhibited 7 growth rate differentials of more than 2 percentage points. (See table 64).8 The 8 miscellaneous fabricated textiles industry 86 Includes both general government and govern ment enterprises. 87In the current set of projections, separate esti mates were made for approximately 134 sectors while the previous projections were developed for about 80 industries. Therefore, to make the output and employ ment comparison at the most detailed industry level, it was necessary to aggregate the current set of pro jections to the level of detail used in the previous 1980 projections. 8 8An additional industry, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery services industry, also had an expected rate of growth with a difference of more than 2 percentage points. However, the differential of 2.1 points is pri marily due to a redefinition of the historical output series for this industry. 1 19 gested. A major factor in this increased rate of growth is the rise in the use of air conditioners, a primary product of this in dustry. The five industries discussed above and shown in table 64 are these which showed the largest differences between the previous and present projections of domes tic output. For the most part, projections of domestic output for the remaining industries were relatively unchanged. Employment. At the major sector level of detail there was little noticeable change in civilian employment in the new 1980 projections compared with the previous set. In most cases, the growth rate differential for the two projections of employment was quite small. Only two major sectors (among the smallest in terms of their 1965 employ ment) exhibited significant changes in em ployment between the two sets of projec tions. The household sector employment projection was lower by 34.1 percent, im plying a differential of-2.7 percentage points in the growth rate (table 65). This change results from a major turnaround in the em ployment of household service workers, pre viously a growing sector but more recently a declining one. Employment in the finance, insurance, and real estate sector increased by 16.5 percent over the previous level projected for 1980. (In terms of the project ed growth rate this amounts to 1 percent age point a year.) At the industry level of the projections however, larger variations occurred. The in dustries with the most change in terms of projected employment are shown in table 66. The revised projection of employment in the livestock and crops industry was 17 percent lower than the previous 1980 pro jection, reflecting the belief that the shift from farm to nonfarm jobs will continue and also that productivity will increase more rapidly than was previously expected.8 9 8 9 In addition to those industries listed in table 66, two others showed significant change. These changes, however, were due to redefinitions in the employment series for the forestry and fisheries industry and the agriculture, forestry, and fishing services industry. Two mining sectors appear in this list. One is nonferrous mining, where larger in creases are primarily attributable to ex pected increases in uranium mining as the United States continues to accelerate the construction of nuclear plants for generating electric power. The coal mining industry is expected to undergo a turnaround in terms of production, and thus employment, as the Nation’s other sources of energy continue to fall short of demand. Thus, projected employment in coal mining increased by more than 59 percent over the previous projections; this reflected not only larger increases in output but also lower produc tivity projections. Employment in the construction indus tries is expected to be approximately 10 percent lower than in the previous projec tion. In part, this is accounted for by an expected slowdown in the residential build ing boom of the late 1960 and early 1970’ s. However, for the most part, the de cline may be attributed to lower projections for the construction of Federal and State highway systems. Post-Vietnam declines in military spend ing and the resulting employment cutbacks have been much sharper than was pre viously expected; this had the effect of lowering projected employment in the ord nance, aircraft, and communications equip ment industries. In many industries employment projec tions were higher than before as a result of the earlier underestimation of demand. Pro jected employment in the miscellaneous tex tiles and floor coverings industry was al most 14 percent over the previously projec ted level. This is largely due to the intro duction of knit goods which has increased intermediate demand from this industry more rapidly than initially expected. Glass containers (especially in the food industry) are expected to decline in use due to the difficulty of recycling, thus boosting the out put and employment prospects in the paperboard and metal containers industries (both up by 23 percent). The demand for electri cal generators and steam turbines is ex pected to increase rapidly over the projec tion period as attempts are made to meet energy shortages. For this reason employ120 Table 65. Employment by major sector: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections Thou sand sof jobs Sector Percent Average annual ra te s o f change ' change, 1 9 6 5 - D iffe re n tia l 19801 to 1965198011 198011 19801 19801 1980 II Tota l em ploym ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7. 4 ,5 6 8 9 8 ,6 0 0 10 1,1 86 2.6 1.9 2.0 A gricu lture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ,671 . M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667 C onstruction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 ,9 9 4 M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18,45 4 .. Tran sportation, com m unication, and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ,2 5 0 W holesale and retail tra d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15,35 2 . Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,367 .. Other private services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 ,11 8 . Government and governm ent en terprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,091 H ouseholds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 ,604 3,156 584 5,427 2 2 ,1 3 3 4 ,926 2 0 ,28 2 4 ,598 18,097 16,632 2 ,770 2,720 655 4 ,9 0 8 2 2 ,52 9 5,317 2 1 ,6 9 5 5,349 1 9 ,60 3 16,585 1,825 - 13.1 12.2 - 9.6 1.8 7.9 7.0 16.5 8.3 -.3 - 34.1 -2 .6 -.9 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.9 2.1 3.3 3.4 .4 -3 .5 -.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.3 3.1 3.8 3.4 -2 .3 1965 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCE: 0.1 -.9 .8 - .6 .2 .5 .4 1.0 .5 .0 - 2.7 Bureau of Labor Statistics. NOTE: 1980 I is from previous set of 1 9 80 projections (4-pe rce nt basic m odel) published inPatterns of U .S . Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (B u reau of Labor S tatistics, 1 9 7 0 ). 1980 II is from current set of projections. Table 66. Employment in selected industries: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections Thou sand sof jobs Industry 1-2 6-7 8 12-17 19 23 30 32 58 62 63 69 71-72 75 77 79 -80 83 84 86 -87 90-91 99 106-107 10 8-1 09 115 133 1965 Livestock and crops. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ,3 3 8 N onferrous m etal ore m ining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 56 Coal m ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 C ons truc tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,9 9 4 .. O rd n a n c e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 6 Miscellaneous textiles and flo o r coverings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 O ther fu r n itu r e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 P ap erb o ard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 M etal co ntain e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Other fabricated metal p r od uc ts ............................................................ 42 8 Engines, turbines, and g e n erato. rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 91 General industrial m a chinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 26 6 Computers, typew riters, and other office eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 Electrical industrial a p p a ra tu s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362 Electric lighting and w irin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Telephone and telegraph apparatus and other electronic com m unication eq u ip m e n .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550 M otor ve h ic le s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 844 A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 625 . Transportation e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276 Optical and photographic e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 . . Com m unications, except radio and T.V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 776 Finance and insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,5 9 8 ... Real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 769 . Autom obile re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 H ouseholds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,6 0 4 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCE: 19 80 1 198011 2,772 60 98 5,427 247 201 206 243 79 530 119 323 396 475 247 2 ,3 0 0 79 156 4,9 0 8 204 218 171 298 97 631 158 377 494 550 305 -1 7 .0 31.7 59 .2 -9 .6 -1 7 .4 8.5 -1 7 .0 22 .6 22 .8 19.1 32.8 16.7 24 .7 15.8 23.5 -2 .9 .5 -2 .7 2.1 .6 3.8 3.2 1.3 .7 1.4 1.8 1.3 5.0 1.8 2.3 -4 .1 2.3 .3 1.4 -.7 4.4 1.9 2.7 2.1 2.6 3.8 2.3 6.6 2.8 3.7 -1 2 1.8 3.0 -.7 -1 .3 .6 -1 .3 1.4 1.4 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.4 752 892 753 348 178 962 3,653 940 657 2 ,770 638 1,030 656 535 213 1,150 4 ,219 1,130 785 1,825 -1 5 .2 15.5 -2 5 .0 53.7 19.7 19.5 15.5 20.2 19.5 -3 4 .1 2.1 .4 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.5 2.3 1.4 1.8 .4 1.0 1.4 -.7 4.5 3.3 2.6 3.3 2.6 3.0 -2 .3 -1 .1 1.0 -2 .0 2.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.2 -2 .7 NOTE: 1980 I is from previous set of 1980 projections (4-pe m odel) published inPatterns of U .S . Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (Bureau of Labor S tatistics, 1 9 7 0 ). 19 80 II is from current set Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2. Bureau of Labor S tatistics. Percent Average annual rate sof c h a n g e ' change, D iffe r 1965 19 80 1 to 19 65 198011 1980 1 198011 ential 121 Table 67. Differences in projected growth rates for 1980 domestic output and employment, by industry — Industry Domestic output Em ploym ent growth rate growth rate d iffe r e n tia l1 d iffe re n tia l1 1 2 Livestock and livestock p ro d u c... ts Crops and other agricultural p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Forestry and fis h e rie .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Agriculture, forestry, and fishery services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Iron ore m in in.g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-7 Nonferrous m etal ore m ining. . . . . . . . . . 8 Coai m ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 10 Stone and clay mining and quarrying 11 Chem ical and fe rtilize r m ining. . . . . ... 12-16 New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 M aintenance and re p a ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18-19 Ordnance and accesso ries ............. 20 Food p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 21 Tobacco m a n u fac tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills. . . . . . ... 23 Miscellaneous tex tiles and floor c o verin g s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 -25 A p p a re .l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Miscellaneous fab ricate d textile p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 -2 8 Lum ber and wood p roduc........... ts . 29 Household f u r n itu r .e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 O ther fu rn itu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 31 Paper p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 32 P a p e rb o a rd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 33 -34 P rinting and publishing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 -36 Chem ical pro d u c .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... •3 7 -3 8 Plastics and synthetic m a teria ls 3 9 4 0 Drugs and cleaning and to ile t p re p a ra tio n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 P a in t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Petroleum p ro d u c .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3 4 4 Rubber and m iscellaneous plastic p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Leather, footw ear, and leather p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 G lass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 9 -5 0 51 -57 58 59 -60 61 Prim ary iron and steel m anufacturing Prim ary nonferrous m etal m a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M etal c o n tain e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Heating, plum bing, and structural m etal Screw m achine p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0 . 1 62 63 64 65 ) -1 .5 -1 . 0 1.3 2.1 3.2 1.5 1.2 -2 . 0 - .6 2.8 - .4 1 -3 .4 . | - .1 - .7 - 1.2 -.9 2.5 .3 1 -5 .6 66 67 68 69 70 71-72 2.8 .3 2.3 3.8 1.9 - .4 0 - Industry 73 74-75 76 77 78-80 .9 - 1.6 .1 .4 1.1 81 82 1.5 -6 83 84 8 5 -8 7 88 -8 9 2.6 .6 -1 . 4 -.5 -.7 3 - .1 1.2 2.5 .7 -5 . 9 .6 -1 .6 .1 18 .3 .7 .3 1.9 -.9 -1 . 2 .6 .6 .7 4.9 1.1 .6 1.1 - 2 .1 -.7 .9 - .4 .5 100 10 1 -1 0 3 105 1 0 6-1 07 1 0 8-1 09 110-111 11 2-1 14 115 11 6-1 17 118-121 - .7 2.9 -.7 1.7 1 2 2-1 24 125 1.6 .1 .6 1.0 133 90-91 92 93 -9 8 99 Dom estic output Employm ent growth rate growth rate d iffe r e n tia l1 d iffe re n tia l' O ther fab ricate d m etal p ro d u c ts.. Engines, turbines, and generators Farm m achin ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Construction, m ining, and oilfield m a ch in ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M ateria i handling eq u ip m e...... nt M etalw orking m a chinery ............ Special industry m a c h in e........ ry General industrial m a chinery ...... Machine shop p ro d u c .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . O ffice, com puting, and ac counting m achin es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Service industry m achin es. . . . . . . . . . Electric industrial e q u ip m e..... nt Household applian ces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Electric lighting and w irin.g . . . . . . . . Radio, TV, and com m unication eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . .. Miscellaneous electrical m a ch in ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M o to r v e h ic le.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A ir c r a ft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. O ther tran s p o rtatio n equipm ent... S cien tific and co ntrolling in s tru m e n ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Optical and photographic eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... Miscellaneous m anufac tu rin g T ra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Com m unications, except radio ■ and T V . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Radio and TV broadcasting . . . . . . ... U tilitie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . T r a d .e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Finance and insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . ... .. Real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Hotels; other personal services.... Business and professional services . Autom obile re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A m us em e nts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. H ealth, educational services, and nonp ro fit o rg a n iza tio n s. . . . . . . . . . . Federal Governm ent e n te rp ris e s .. S tate and local governm ent enterprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. H ouseholds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 3.8 0 1.5 2.4 -1 .2 .7 1.9 .9 -.5 1.5 1.0 .9 - .8 - 1 -1 .0 14 -.6 .5 3.1 1.0 -.9 .6 1.9 .4 1.2 -.1 1.8 .3 -.3 - 1.4 -.7 .0 .6 1.2 5.4 .0 1.2 -2 .3 3.6 .1 .6 - 9 -1 .7 1.6 - 1.4 -.1 -1 .5 -.1 - .4 -.8 -3 .0 .1 .0 -3 . 3 1.5 -.6 .5 -.6 1.4 1.5 -.5 .7 1.5 4 - .4 .5 1.0 -.1 - 1.4 (2 ) 0 -3 .3 16 .5 .4 2 Not available. 1 A projected 1 9 68 -80 rate of growth was developed using previous projections of dom estic outpu t in 1 9 5 8 dollars. The same rate of growth NOTE: Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix was developed for present projections of dom estic o utpu t in 1 9 63 dollars. The d iffe ren tia l was arrived at by su btracting the previously projected growth table A-2. rate from the present projected rate. Thus, positive diffe ren tia ls im ply higher SOURCE: Bureau of Labor S tatistics. rates of growth than previously projected. The same m ethodology was u ti lized in the analysis of em ploym ent projections. 122 ment in the engines, turbines, and genera tors industry is expected to be approxi mately 33 percent higher than previously projected. The transportation equipment industries as a whole are expected to have 54 percent more employment in 1980 than was previously projected. In part this is due to increasing demand for intercity and intra city transit systems. However, most of the increase in projected employment is linked to the assumption that the United States will undertake an extensive program to re build its naval fleet during the projection period, which expands the employment pro jections in the shipbuilding industry. Other industries which are expected to have higher employment in this set of pro jections compared to the previous set, large ly because of lower projected changes in output per man-hour, are: fabricated metal products other than containers; general in dustrial machinery; computers and periph eral equipment; typewriters and other office equipment; electrical apparatus, electric lighting and wiring; motor vehicles; optical and opthalmic equipment; photographic equipment and supplies; communications, ex cept radio and TV broadcasting; finance; insurance; real estate; and automobile re pair. There were other shifts in industry employment projections, but those dis cussed here cover the bulk of these changes. Table 67 presents the growth rate differ entials in output and employment for all industries for which comparisons could be made. Some aggregation of industries was necessary because of redefinitions in the sectoring plan since the earlier set of pro jections. 123 Appendix A. Methods of Developing the 1980 and 1985 Projections Throughout the text of this bulletin the methods used in developing the 1980 and 1985 projections have received only a limit ed explanation in order to provide a con cise statement of findings and analyses for the reader with little interest in methodol ogy. This appendix is intended to fill the gap for those who may have a greater in terest in the techniques used. The first part of this appendix discusses in considerable detail each of the separate elements involved in developing the projec tions. The final part of the appendix dis cusses some current work and plans to im prove both the data and the methods to be used in making future projections. In outline form, the projection process may be delineated as follows: 1. Factors determining real potential GNP In making projections of the U.S. econo my in 1980 and 1985, it is first necessary to develop a projected rate of growth for potential real gross national product over the appropriate time period. In this case, two time periods were utilized: 1968-80 and 1980-85. In order to determine the growth rate of potential GNP, several factors af fecting this growth rate must first be pro jected. First, the growth rate of the labor force is projected to the target years by the Of fice of Manpower Structure and Trends, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Basically, two items enter these projections. First, labor force participation rates are projected for men, women with children under 5 years of age, and women without children under 5. Second, an assumption must be made as to the long-term trends of the fertility rate. This determines the mix of the female popu lation between the two previously mentioned categories. Given these two factors, projec tions of the labor force in 1980 and 1985 are then made. 1 The 1980 and 1985 civilian labor force unemployment rate is set by assumption, as is the number of individuals in the Armed Forces. Civilian employment in the target years is then determined by sub tracting military employment from the pro- Projection of real potential GNP on an aggregate basis using: A. Labor force B. Employment C. Average annual hours D. Output per man-hour II. development of the 1980 and 85 projec tions. This discussion is not only useful for those who wish to use the projections, but necessary for those who wish to introduce their own modifications to better meet their individual needs. Estimation and distribution of demand GNP with: A. Thurow econometric model B. Demand disaggregation models III. Input-output system IV. Microeconomic or industry projections of employ ment A. Output per man-hour B. Average annual hours C. Employment V. System balancing A. Imports B. Gross private domestic investment C. Employment This simplified view of the projection system and chart A -l are meant as guides to the following detailed discussion of pro cedures. Datailad description of methods 1A fuller discussion of the methods used in developing labor force projections can be found in Denis Johnston, "Population and Labor Force Projections,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1973 pp. 8-17. This section will discuss in detail each of the separate elements necessary for the 124 Chart A-1 Diagram of Economic Growth Projection System K ) C n 1 Capital flow matrix requirements by producing industry ■ 1 ' T ' i l l i Income determination Thu row m acroeconom etric model — ---------- Productivity by industry --- Government revenues and expenditures — Of demand > GNP | Man-hours by industry nu P R O D U C T IO N , E M P L O Y M E N T , P R O D U C T IV IT Y , A N D M A N -H O U R S PCE - bridge matrix ' HouthakkerTaylor consumption model changes in hours paid and the estimates of employment for each component of private employment, the next step is to calculate total private man-hours in 1980 and 1985. This is accomplished by multiplying the estimate of employment for each component of private employment by the estimated level of 1980 and 1985 average annual hours paid in that sector. The next step in the sequence for de veloping supply GNP projections is to de velop productivity projections for the target years in each of the private sectors. Output per man-hour is assumed to grow at the historical rates of 2.7 percent a year for the private nonfarm sector and at 5.5 per cent a year for the farm sector. Multiplying the resulting projections of output per man-hour in each sector by the corresponding proj ections of total man-hours and summing these products yields the pro jected level of real potential private gross national product in the target years. In the aggregate, the government prod uct is assumed to equal the wage bill. Thus, to develop projected values for government product, the estimates of employment for each subdivision of government are multi plied by the 1968 average wage rate for that subdivision, expressed in terms of 1963 prices. The resulting values, summed, rep resent projected government product with the assumption that no change in the mix of government employment will take place during the projection period. Finally, an estimate of the contribution of the rest of the world is made. This esti mate, summed with the estimates of pri vate GNP and government product, yields the projected value of total potential gross national product. jected labor force and applying the rate of unemployment to the remainder. This yields a projection of employment on a count-ofpersons basis. It is necessary to convert this to a count of jobs. This occurs because the estimates of employment at the detailed industry level used in later stages of the projections are related to data series ob tained from establishment payrolls, which are counts of jobs, while the labor force projection is based on household surveys, which is a count of persons. The conversion ratio, termed the adjustment factor, leading to a jobs concept of employment adjusts not only for those individuals who hold more than one job, but also for other statistical differences between the two employment series. Generally speaking, this ratio is inversely related to the unemployment rate. However, relatively large random disturb ances appear in this relationship, making it difficult to make reasonable projections. For this reason, the adjustment factor for the target years is derived from representa tive historical years. In the case of the 1980-85 projections, the period 1967-70 was used as the base period for the determina tion of this ratio. With this conversion, the estimate of total employment is on a job basis. Next, total projected employment is di vided into three major sectors: farm, private nonfarm, and government. The private sec tor is divided between farm and nonfarm because of the disparity between rates of growth of output per man-hour for these two areas of the economy and the employ ment shift from farm to nonfarm industries. Separate estimates of government employ ment are made because productivity change of government employees is assumed to be zero in the national income and product accounts which form the data base for the projections model. Government employment projections are further subdivided into Fed eral civilian, Federal military, and State and local employment estimates. Within the private sector of the economy it is necessary to project rates of change for average annual hours paid. The projec tion of these items was based on 1950-68 trends in hours in the farm and private nonfarm sectors. With the estimates of Estimation and distribution of demand GNP Once supply GNP has been determined, a two-step procedure is followed to allocate this by industry. First, the Thurow macroeconometric model allocates GNP by major demand category. Next, each of these de mand categories is in turn disaggregated to the industry level of detail. In the next sec tion the Thurow model is discussed, first, as it exists, and subsequently as it was 126 individual sectors of the original model will be given. These descriptions will feature what could be called the key equation of each sector, the endogenous variables de termined in the sector, and the policy vari ables which affect them. modified for this set of projections. The most important modification was the substitution of the projections developed by the pro cedure just discussed for the supply GNP projections generated by the model. The discussion of the Thurow macroeconometric model will be followed by a discussion of the procedures used for projecting the com position of each of the demand categories. Supply. The key equation of the supply block is the production function which estimates the level of private GNP which can be pro duced given the labor* and capital resources available to the private economy. Leading up to this equation are the derivations of the labor and capital inputs. The labor input consists of average an nual man-hours times the number of em ployees. The basic exogenous estimates which affect these are population projec tions and an assumed unemployment rate. Equations determine the labor force and average annual hours; exogenous estimates of Federal military and civilian employment and an endogenous estimate of State and local government employment are subtract ed from total employment to obtain private employment. Consistent with the national income accounts definition of government product, government employment is con verted to compensation, which, added to private GNP, yields a supply estimate of total GNP. Fiscal policy enters the employ ment determination through the levels of Federal employment assumed and through grants-in-aid to State and local government. The level of grants-in-aid enters the State and local employment equation. The capital inputs to the production func tion must be derived in the supply sector of the model. The capital stock is built up through the projections by adding to the capital stock each year an estimate of new capital derived from investment equations for equipment and nonresidential structures. The additions to capital stock from new investment are adjusted for embodied tech nological change, as are the estimated dis cards which must be subtracted to derive the new level of capital stock. The calculation of capital inputs, as de scribed, necessitates a set of equations with in the supply side which determines invest ment in equipment and nonresidential struc tures. The investment equations are de The Thurow macroeconometric model. Major demand and income components of GNP are projected using the macroeconometric model developed by Lester Thurow. The model’s development was financed by the Interagency Growth Project. It is designed for long-term projections of the national in come accounts on an annual basis and is formulated so as to facilitate policy analy sis. The emphasis is on fiscal policy; the only monetary policy variables included are two interest rates. The original model has been described in the Survey of Current Business.2It consisted of about 30 equations plus several identities, but more equations have been added in the course of its further development and use. In its original version, the model con tained 104 variables, 51 of which were ex ogenous. The exogenous variables — those which have to be supplied to the model — included population, prices, exports, interest rates, and various Federal policy variables such as tax rates and transfer payments. The Thurow model is divided into three distinct sections: supply, income, and de mand. Although distinct, the sectors are not unrelated, since they interact with one another. The supply and demand sides are primarily in constant dollars, while the in come side is primarily in current dollars. A set of deflators is used to convert from sup ply or demand to income and back. In the original model these deflators were exoge nously projected. However, the model has been revised recently to include an en dogenous wage-price sector. This new op tion will be discussed below along with other modifications. First, a brief description of the 2 Lester C. Thurow, " A Fiscal Policy Model of the United States,” Survey o f Current Business, June 1969, pp. 45-64. 127 pendent on a measure of corporate internal funds and private GNP, among other varia bles. The presence of private GNP intro duces simultaneity within the supply sector since private GNP is partially determined by investment’s effect on the stock of capital. The estimate of internal funds is based on an estimate of the gross flow of corporate funds less estimated Federal and State and local corporate profit taxes. The major policy variable affecting the investment equations of the supply side is the Federal corporate profits tax rate. No explicit provision is made in the capital con sumption allowances equation to incorpo rate the effects of changes in allowable de preciation methods, nor is an investment tax credit policy built into the structure of the model. Adjustment for the effects of these fiscal policies must be made exoge nously to the model’s results for the appro priate equations. Provision is made in the investment-related equations for the direct effects of unemployment rates, in addition to the indirect effects which come about through the private GNP levels. The income sector of the Thurow model is oriented toward the determination of personal income. Even though it is an identity, the personal income equation could be considered the key equation of the in come sector. The other equations in the sector are for the estimation of the various quantities which are used in deriving per sonal income from supply GNP estimates. The derivation requires estimates of the following: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. policy variables will be discussed drawing other information into the discussion as it becomes useful. First, however, it should be recalled that the income sector is in current dollars. Therefore, inputs into the sector which originate in the supply side must be converted to current dollars using projected price inflators. Most of the major estimates of the supply sector, including GNP, cor porate profits, and corporate internal funds net of investment, are passed to the income sector from supply. Along with the indirect effects of policy variables which affect the supply estimates which are passed on to the income sector, there are many policy variables which enter directly. These include the following: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Changes in the Federal tax rate on gaso line affect the estimate of Federal indirect business taxes. An increase in this tax rate would have the effect of lowering personal income. The other factors determining in direct business taxes are private GNP and motor fuel consumption. Private GNP, of course, is subject to the effects of any poli cy which affects the supply sector, so that indirect business taxes, both Federal and State and local, are indirectly a function of corporate profits tax rates, etc. This is true of any equation affected by variables esti mated in other sectors of the model. These indirect effects, while important, will not be pointed out wherever they occur in order to keep the discussion manageable. Several policy variables relate to social insurance programs. In general, the con tributions for these programs are endoge nous, but the payments are projected exo genously. Three policy controlled variables are included in the OASDHI contribution equation. These are the tax rate, the wage base, and the coverage ratio. Together Capital consumption allowances Indirect business taxes Subsidies less current surplus of government en terprise Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjust ments Social insurance contributions Transfer payments to persons Interest payments of government and consumers Net corporate dividend payments In addition, estimates of personal taxes paid to Federal and State and local government facilitate the estimation of disposable per sonal income. Instead of explaining the individual equa tions and the complex interactions involved item by item, the effects of the various Federal tax rate on gasoline Employer-employee combined tax rate for old age, survivors’, disability, and hospital insur ance (O ASD H I) Coverage ratio for OASDHI Taxable wage base for OASDHI Average employer contribution rate for unem ployment insurance Yield on 3-month government bills Publicly held Federal debt Federal tax rate on median family income Employment rate Transfer payments 128 they facilitate the simulation of the effects of social security legislation such as the social security amendments of 1972 on contributions for social insurance. An in crease in any of these three characteristics of social security legislation will, other things being equal, result in lower per sonal income. The effects which such legis lation has on social security benefits are built into the exogenous payments projec tion. Any increase in social security pay ments will have the effect of increasing personal income. Unemployment insurance programs have similar effects in the model. Tax rates for these Federal social in surance programs are used in conjunction with a tax base to determine contributions. The tax bases used are based on compen sation of employees less estimated employ er contributions for social insurance. One of the many simultaneities in the income side comes about because the tax bases for social security contributions depend on personal income which is in turn a function of these contributions. As a result, an in crease in a social insurance tax rate will not only have a direct effect on contribu tions, but will also have secondary effects which come about through changes in per sonal income and the tax base. Another interesting example of indirect policy ef fects from the supply side occurs in the equation for State and local social insur ance contributions. The level of grants-inaid can affect the tax base variable through its effect on State and local employment which is included in the base. The policy variables for yield on 3-month government bills and the level of publicly held Federal debt enter into the determina tion of Federal interest payments. The di rect consequences of an increase in either of these will be an increase in personal income. The assumptions of an employment rate and the tax rate on median family income relate to the derivation of disposable per sonal income. In particular, they help deter mine Federal personal taxes. Median family income is determined by an equation which includes the employment rate as an inde pendent variable. The level of median family income is used to select the appropriate tax rate to use in the Federal personal tax equations. The level of transfer payments enters directly into the personal income identity. It is projected exogenously. An increase in transfer payments, of course, increases per sonal income. Secondary effects occur through the influence of personal income on other sectors of the model. Demand. The key result of the demand sec tor is the estimation of demand GNP. The GNP equation is an identity which sums personal consumption, gross private domes tic investment, net exports, and govern ment purchases. Some of the components of demand GNP are estimated directly in the sectors of the model. In particular, as dis cussed above, investment in producers’ dur able equipment, investment in nonresidential structures, and compensation of gov ernment employees are taken from the supply sector. The other components are estimated in the demand sector or are exogenous. Disposable personal income is one of the most important determinants of the equa tions in the demand sector. It enters into the estimates of personal consumption ex penditures, residential investment, and im ports. Therefore, any policy changes which affect disposable personal income will indi rectly affect the level and composition of demand GNP. Although all policy variables affect de mand GNP indirectly, a few have more direct effects which have already been dis cussed. One of these is grants-in-aid to State and local government which affect the estimate of State and local govern ment purchases other than employee com pensation. The equation for estimating resi dential investment is sensitive to the monetary policy variable — yield on 3- to 5-year taxable government issues. Two exo genous policy-related variables enter direct ly into the demand GNP identity. These are exports and Federal Government non compensation purchases. The latter play a special role in the solution of the model which will be discussed below. 129 Supply-demand gap and model balancing. In summary, the essential flow of the Thurow model is as follows: The economy’s projected labor and capital resources gener ate an estimate of supply or potential GNP; this in turn provides the basis for estimat ing the income generated by the production of this output and these incomes enter into the projections of demand GNP. This sim plified flow of the model ignores the many interactions and simultaneities of the mo del, some of which were mentioned above. In the model there is no guarantee that the demand generated by the production of potential GNP will result in an equilibrium situation in the sense that the demand GNP equals the supply GNP. In general, it will not. The resulting difference between the two measures of GNP is referred to as the supply-demand gap. In the absence of corrective policy actions, a positive gap, that is, a residual for supply GNP less de mand GNP, would imply that the assumed employment level could not be sustained. Within the model, the gap may be han dled in two ways. One is to let Federal pur chases, other than compensation, be deter mined as a residual, thus assuming that any excess supply is taken up by Federal Government purchases. The alternative treatment is to estimate Federal purchases exogenously and explicitly derive the supply-demand gap. The gap is then elimi nated by changing the assumptions about various Federal policy variables in order to stimulate or stem demand, as the case requires. The result is a balanced projec tion, one in which outputs, income, govern ment policy, and demand are consistent with one another. the model basically. Since then, some of the equations have been modified by either BEA or BLS. These changes are discussed below. The most significant change in the Thu row model was the addition of the endoge nous wage-price sector. The significance of this change is that it is no longer necessary to estimate the level of deflators outside of the model. In addition, the old equation for compensation of employees has been replaced by a compensation per man-hour equation which interacts with price levels. Wages and prices are determined together in the new sector. The basic behavioral equations of the new sector are for com pensation per man-hour, the private GNP deflator, and the personal consumption ex penditure deflator. The other deflators are derived from the private GNP deflator esti mates. The new sector and its development are discussed in an article in the Survey of Current Business.3 The Bureau of Labor Statistics has re vised the State and local government equa tion in the model to show separate projec tions for educational and "other” purchases. Separate employment projections for these two categories allow the difference between compensation per employee in education and that of other employees to be included in the compensation estimates. In addition, enrollment changes can be prevented from affecting noneducational purchases and em ployment. In the old version, enrollment af fected both educational and other State and local activity. The equation for State and local indirect business taxes was reestimated to include the percent of population enrolled in school. In the long run, it is reasonable to include such a variable as a measure of tax needs, especially since local education tends to be financed through property taxation, which makes up a large share of indirect business taxes. Recent improvements in the Thurow model. Since the original description of the Thurow model was published in 1969, there have been many changes and revisions. These changes are continuing, making the model a more reliable tool for projections. In early 1971, the equations of the model were entirely reestimated by Richard Barth of the Office of Business Economics (now the Bureau of Economic Analysis) of the U. S. Department of Commerce, using an updated data base. The reestimation did not change Modifications in actual use. A considerable amount of flexibility is built into the Thurow model which allows part of the model to be overridden in actual use. This may be de3 Richard C. Barth, "T h e Development of Wage and Price Relationships for a Long-Term Econometric Model,” Survey of Current Business, August 1972, pp. 15-20. 130 above, the supply estimate of GNP and the demand estimate of GNP are not generally equal. When such a gap exists, it can be closed by modifying various policy varia bles. In practice, it is only closed to within a small margin of error, since additional accuracy is not worth the cost of rerunning the model. For example, in the aggregate projections for 1985, a residual gap equal to 0.8 percent of GNP remains after the fi nal run of the Thurow model. Such residual gaps are usually allocated among the de mand components of GNP on the basis of judgment, comparison with other projec tions, and knowledge of past equation per formance. The only other aspect of the Thurow mo del which was overridden was the equation for the private GNP deflator. There were two reasons for overriding this equation. The first is that the endogenous price sec tor is new and relatively untested in fore casting. The second is that, being new, the wage-price sector was added to the model after the projections had been started. Par tially overriding the new sector with the pre vious exogenous projection of the private GNP deflator preserved the continuity of the projection process to a large extent. At the same time, the new wage-price sector was allowed to generate the other demand component deflators consistent with the exogenous private GNP deflator. sirable for a number of reasons. In some cases, certain parts of the model perform poorly in projections and are, therefore, replaced by more reliable estimates. Even more important is the capability the model provides to simulate the effects of changes in the structure of certain parts of the economy which cannot be simulated direct ly by the model. Similarly, this flexibility facilitates comparisons with projections or assumptions from other sources. The follow ing discussion summarizes the modification made in the development of the current projections. The most significant modification of the model in use was in the supply sector. In stead of allowing the model’s equations to predict labor force and supply GNP, these were projected independently and supplied exogenously to the model. There were two primary reasons for this. The first relates to the upward bias of the production func tion as discussed above. The second was the convenience of having labor force pro jections which are consistent with those projected by the Division of Labor Force Studies, BLS. The only other modification to the supply side was a constant adjust ment to the Federal corporate income tax equation to reflect the estimated effects of the Tax Reform Act of 1969, some provi sions of which could not be incorporated directly as policy variables. In the income sector, a similar adjust ment for the Tax Reform Act of 1969 was made to the Federal personal income tax projection. State and local personal taxes were also adjusted but only in order to balance State and local revenue and expen diture. It was felt that the personal tax equation was overpredicting revenue. Rising expenditure requirements have been im portant factors in State and local personal tax growth but they are not reflected in the Thurow equation. Therefore, without adjustment, they tend to be projected to keep growing rapidly, in spite of the less rapid projected growth of expenditures, thus generating unrealistically large surpluses. The only adjustment to the results of the model on the demand side relates to clos ing the supply-demand gap. As discussed Demand disaggregation models. After a balanced set of income and demand GNP projections has been completed, the pro jection sequence turns to a detailed dis tribution of the various demand GNP cate gories. The distribution of demand by producing industry is completed in the in dustry detail of the input-output table, the use of which is described in a subsequent section. Personal consumption expenditures. The al location of personal consumption expendi tures among the various producing indus tries is accomplished in two steps, each including several processes. Total personal consumption is determined for the projection years by the Thurow macroeconometric mo del. This value is used as a control and all disaggregated projections are adjusted to 131 this figure. The first step of the procedure is to project personal consumption by major types of expenditures such as food, hous ing, medical expenses, automobiles, taxi fares, etc. These projections are adjusted to sum to the previously projected gross level of PCE. The second step is to deter mine what proportion each industry must produce in order to generate that expendi ture distribution. The result of this twostep process is a personal consumption expenditures "bill of goods” which forms one component of total final demand. Given the projected level of total per sonal consumption, it is first necessary to determine how the consumer will allocate his available funds in the projection period. For this purpose, H. S. Houthakker and Lester Taylor developed for the BLS a set of 82 demand-oriented consumption func tions. These functions correspond to the personal consumption classification in the national income accounting system, which groups similar or related consumer pro ducts into a single item. (See table A -l.) These equations were estimated with constant-dollar consumption data between 1919 and 1964, excluding war years. In this formulation, total PCE is treated as a proxy for disposable income, and is by far the most important of the explanatory varia bles. Annual change in total PCE also has a high level of explanatory power in these equations. Relative prices are incorporated in about one-half of the equations and, in addition, one or two other variables ap pear in selected equations. The demand function implicit in most of these equations is dynamic in the sense that it allows the effect of a change in an ex planatory variable to be distributed over time. Thus, a change in income may have a more immediate effect on the expendi ture for some items and a lagged or gradu al effect on other items. In general, a change in income has an initial strong in fluence on durable goods while services respond more slowly to the level of income. In reviewing the initial projections de rived by the Houthakker-Taylor model, it was felt that, in several of the categories, the experiences of the late 1960’ s and ear ly 1970’ s were not adequately represented. The best solution to this problem would be to fully reestimate the model incor porating post-1964 data. This was, how ever, impossible due to the lack of time. Several of those equations which were felt to be the most distorted were reestimated through 1970. For the most part, the reestimated equations yielded what seem to be more reasonable projections. A few of the equations were replaced with judgments on expected trends in those particular areas. Finally, the sum of the projected levels of the individual items is brought into bal ance with the projected level of total per sonal consumption expenditures by prorat ing any difference according to the income elasticities of the individual equations. The Houthakker-Taylor model was esti mated with data ending in 1964. Simula tions using this set of equations for the period 1965-70 generated errors in each of the estimators. For those equations where the error was large and where the estimates were not modified by other means, this error or bias was projected to the target years and used to adjust the projected levels of personal consumption. To this point a set of personal consump tion expenditures in terms of the national income and product accounts has been pro jected. The second step in the procedure is to transform these projection into a set of final demands consistent with the inputoutput framework. The primary operation is the use of a matrix to transform or "bridge” the product projections into the 134 producing industries as defined by the input-output sectoring plan used by the Division of Economic Growth. (See table A-2.) A product as defined in the national income accounts may be an aggregate of many different types of goods. Several dif ferent industries may produce the goods included in a single product classification. For example, consumer demand for the product "shoes and other footwear” is dis tributed among final demands from the leather products industry, the rubber pro ducts industry, and imported footwear. The extreme case is consumer demand for the product class "other durable house furnish ings” which is distributed among 27 input132 Table A-l. Classification system for personal consumption expenditures by type of product N um ber and product Num ber and product I. V II. P e rson a l business Food and tobacco 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. Food purchased for off-prem ise consum ption (n .d .c .) Purchased meals and beverages (n .d .c .) Food furnished government (including m ilitary) and com m ercial employees (n .d .c .) Food produced and consumed on farm s (n .d .c .) Tobacco products (n .d .c .) 4. 5. 6. 7. li. Clothing, accessories, and jewelry 1. 2. 3. Shoes and other footw ear (n .d .c .) V III. Shoe cleaning and r e p a ir s .) Clothing and accessories except footw ear a. W om en’s and ch ild ren ’s (n .d .c .) b. M en’s and boys’ (n .d .c .) 4. Standard clothing issued to m ilitary personnel (n .d .c .) 5. Cleaning, dyeing, pressing, alteratio n , storage, and repair of ga r ments including furs (in shops) not elsewhere classified (s .) 6. Laundering in establishm ents (s .) 7. 8. T ra n s p o rta tio n User-operated transportatio n a. New cars and net purchases of used cars (d .c .) b. Tires, tubes, accessories, and parts (d .c .) c. Autom obile repair, greasing, washing, parking, storage, and rental (s .) d. Gasoline and oil (n .d .c .) e. Bridge, tunnel, ferry, and road tolls (s.) f. Autom obile insurance prem ium s less claims paid (s.) 2. Purchased local transportatio n a. Street and electric railway and local bus (s .) b. Taxicab (s.) c. Railway (c o m m u ta tio n ) (s.) 3. Jewelry and watches (d .c .) Other (s.) 1. Purchased in tercity transportatio n a. Railway (excluding c o m m u ta tio n ) (s .) b. Inte rcity bus (s .) c. Airline (s .) d. Other (s .) III. Personal care 1. 2. To ilet articles and preparations (n .d .c .) Barbershops, beauty parlors, and baths (s.) IV. Housing 1. 2. 3. 4. Owner-occupied nonfarm dwellings— space-rental value (s .) Tenant-occupied nonfarm dwellings (including lodging houses)— space rent (s.) IX. Rental value of farm houses (s.) Other (s.) V. Household operation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. Brokerage charges and investm ent counseling (s.) Bank service charges, tru st servicesand safe-deposit box rental (s .) Services furnished w ithout payment by financial interm ediaries except insurance com panies (s .) Expense of handling life insurance (s .) Legal services (s.) Funeral and burial expenses (s .) O ther (s.) Furniture, including m attresses and bedsprings (d .c .) Kitchen and other household appliances (d .c .) China, glassware, tablew are, and utensils (d .c .) Other durable house furnishings (d .c .) Sem idurable house furnishings (n .d .c .) Cleaning and polishing preparations, and m iscellaneous household supplies and paper products (n .d .c .) S tationery and w riting supplies (n .d .c .) Household utilities a. Electricity (s .) b. Gas (s .) c. W ater and other sanitary services (s.) d. Other fuel and ice (n .d .c .) Telephone and telegraph (s .) Dom estic service (s .) Other (s.) R e c re a tio n 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Books and maps (d .c .) Magazines, newspapers, and sheet music (n .d .c .) Nondurable toys and sport supplies (n .d .c .) Wheel goods, durable toys, sport equipm ent, boats, and pleasure airc raft (d .c .) Radio and television receivers, records, and musical instrum ents (d .c .) Radio and television repair (s .) Flowers, seeds, and potted plants (n .d .c .) Admissions to specified spectator am usem ents a. M otion picture theaters (s .) b. Legitim ate theaters and opera, and en tertain m en t of non p rofit institutions(e x c e p t a th le tic s ) ( s .) c. S pectator sports (s .) Clubs and frate rn al organizations except insurance (s .) Com m ercial participant am usem ents (s .) Pari-m utuel net receipts (s .) Other (s.) X . P riva te e d u c a tio n an d research V I. Medical care expenses 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 1. 2. 3. Drug preparations and sundries (n .d .c .) O phthalm ic products and orthopedic appliances (d .c .) Physicians (s .) Dentists (s .) Other professional services (s .) Privately controlled hospitals and sanitarium s (s .) Health insurance a. Medical care and hospitalization (s.) b. Incom e loss (s.) Higher education (s .) Elem entary and secondary schools (s .) O ther (s.) See footnotes at end of table. 133 Table A-l. Classification system for personal consumption expenditures by type of product—Continued Num ber and product Num ber and product XI. X II. Religious and w elfare activities (s .) Foreign travel and other, net 1. 2. 3. 4. SOURCE: U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis. NOTE: Consumer durable com m odities are designated (d .c .), nondurable co m m odities, (n .d .c ,), and services (s .) following group title s. ment demand, four separate categories are considered: (1) residential construction, (2) nonresidential construction, (3) investment in producers’ durable equipment, and (4) change in business inventories. Projected control totals for each of these categories are derived from the Thurow macroeconometric model. The next step of the projection procedure is to allocate each of these investment categories to the particu lar producing industries. In the case of residential construction, the allocation consists of estimating bro kers’ commissions on sales of structures and the value of net purchases of used structures from the public sector. These estimates are made by examining the his torical relationships between these two items and private new residential building construction. Commissions are allocated to Economic Growth industry 109, "Other real estate,” and net purchases of used struc tures are allocated to Economic Growth industry 130, the "Scrap (used and secondhand)” industry. The remainder, after de ducting the amounts allocated to EG indus tries 109 and 130 is the demand for the output of EG industry 12, "New residen tial building construction.” Unlike residential construction, business investment in structures must be allocated to three producing industries in addition to EG industries 109 and 130. These are EG industry 13, "New nonresidential build ing construction,” EG industry 14, "New public utilities construction,” and EG indus try 16, "All other new construction.” Esti mates for these sectors are obtained by examining historical data on detailed types of nonresidential construction. Althoqgh no formal model is employed at this level of detail, the demand for these types of struc tures can be identified by user or function output sectors covering a wide range of manufacturing industries. Moreover, per sonal consumption expenditures by national income categories, both historical and pro jected, are expressed in terms of purchas ers’ value. That is, they reflect not only the value received by the producing industry, but also costs of transportation and distri bution associated with bringing the product from its point of production into the hands of the ultimate consumer. These costs or margins include the value added to the pro duct by the insurance industry, the retail and wholesale trade industries, and any or all of the transportation industries. The purpose of the bridge matrix is twofold— first, to allocate each product class expendi ture among the various producing indus tries involved, and second, to remove the margin costs from the producing industries and reallocate them to the insurance, trade, and transportation industries. The bridge matrix used to allocate projected personal consumption expenditures is based on the 1963 table developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, and an estimated bridge ma trix for 1970 developed by the Division of Economic Growth. Where important changes had taken place between 1963 and 1970 in the distribution, and it was felt these changes would continue, they were projected to 1980 and 1985. Standard programs have been devised to derive the personal consumption expendi tures bill of goods in a continuous sequence. However, the results are subj ect to review at each stage of the sequence and modifica tions are made to the system as additional structural information becomes available. Gross private domestic investment. In pro jecting the industrial composition of invest Foreign travel by United States residents (s .) Expendituresabroad by United States Government personnel ( m ili tary and civilian) (n .d .c .) Less: expenditures in the United States by foreigners-(s.) Less: personal rem ittances in kind to foreigners (n .d .c .) 134 Table A-2. Interindustry model sectoring plan for 1980 and 1985 projections E c o n o m ic G ro w th in d u s try num ber S IC co de 1 E c o n o m ic G ro w th in d u s try n u m b e r an d title A G R IC U L T U R E , F O R E S T R Y , A N D F IS H E R IE S 1 2 3 4 Livestock and livestock products Crops and other ag ricultural products Forestry and fisheries Agriculture, forestry, and fishery services 01 0 7 4 ,0 8 , and 091 0 7 1 ,0 7 2 3 , pt. 0729, 07 3 , 0 8 5 , and 098 M IN IN G 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Iron ore mining Copper ore m ining Other nonferrous m etal ore mining Coal mining Crude petroleum S to n e an d clay mining and quarrying Chem ical and fe rtilize r mining 101,106 102 103-109, except 106 1 1 ,1 2 1 3 1 1 ,1 3 2 1 ,1 3 8 1 4 1 -1 4 5 ,1 4 8 , and 149 147 New residential buildings j New nonresidential buildings / New public utilities l New streets and highways f All other new construction V M aintenance and repair J 67 68 69 70 71 72 1 5 ,1 6 , and 17 M A N U FA C T U R IN G 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1925 19 except 1925 20 21 2 2 1 ,2 2 2 , 2 2 3 ,2 2 4 ,2 2 6 , and 228 227 and 229 Miscellaneous textiles and flo o r coverings 225 Hosiery and knit goods 23 except 239, 3992 Apparel 239 Miscellaneous fab ricated textile products 241 and 242 Logging, sawm ills, and planing mills M illw ork, plywood, and other wood products 243, 24 4, and 249 251 Household furniture 25 except 251 Other furniture 26 except 265 Paper products Paperboard 265 2 7 1 ,2 7 2 , 273, and 274 Publishing 275, 27 6, 277, 278, and Printing 279 28 1 , 286, and 289, except Chem ical products 28 195 287 Agricultural chem icals 2 8 2 1 ,2 8 2 2 Plastic m aterials and synthetic rubber 28 23 , 2824 Synthetic fibers 283 Drugs 284 Cleaning and to ile t preparations 285 Paint 29 Petroleum products 30 except 307 Rubber products 307 Plastic products Leather, fo o tw e a r , an d lea th er p ro d u c ts 31 321, 322, and 323 Glass Cem ent, c la y, an d co n c re te p ro d u c ts 324, 325, and 327 Miscellaneous stone and clay products 326, 328, and 329 Blast furnaces and basic steel products 331 332, 3391, and 3399 Iron and steel foundries and forgings Primary copper m etals 3331 Primary alum inum 3334 and 28 195 Guided missiles and space vehicles Other ordnance Food products Tobacco m anufacturing Fabric, yarn, and thread mills 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 C O N S T R U C T IO N 12 13 14 15 16 17 S IC C o d e 1 and title 135 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 O ther primary and secondary nonferrous m etal3 3 32 , 33 33 , 3 3 3 9 , and 334 Copper rolling and drawing 3351 3352 Alum inum rolling and drawing Other nonferrous rolling and drawing 33 56 and 3357 Miscellaneous nonferrous m etal products 336 and 3 3 92 M etal containers 341 and 3491 Heating apparatus and plum bing fixtures 343 344 Fabricated structural m etal Screw m achine products 345 and 346 Other fab ricated m etal products 34 2, 34 7, 34 8, and 349 except 3491 Engines, turbines, and generators 351 Farm machinery 352 C onstruction, m ining, and oilfield m achinery 35 31 , 35 32 , and 3533 M aterial handling equipm ent 35 34 , 3535, 35 36 , and 3537 M etalw orking m achinery 354 Special industry m achinery 355 General industrial m achinery 356 Machine shop products 359 Computers and peripheral equipm ent 35 73 , 3574 Typewriters and other offic e m achines 35 7, except 3573 and 3574 Service industry machines 358 Electric transm ission eq uipm ent 361 Electrical industrial apparatus 362 Household appliances 363 Electric lighting and wiring 364 Radio and television sets 365 Telephone and telegraph apparatus 3661 Other electronic co m m unication equipm ent 3662 367 Electronic com ponents O ther electrical m achinery 369 M o to r vehicles 371 A ircraft 372 Ship and boat building and repair 373 Railroad and other trans portatio n equipm ent 374 and 375 Miscellaneous transportatio n equipm ent 379 Scientific and co ntrolling instrum ents 3 7 1 ,3 8 2 , and 387 Medical and dental instrum ents 384 Optical and ophthalm ic equipm ent 383 and 385 Photographic eq uipm ent and supplies 386 Miscellaneous m anufactured products 39, except 3992 T R A N S P O R T A T IO N 93 94 95 96 97 98 Railroad transportatio n Local transit and intercity bus Truck transportation W ater transportatio n Air transportation O th e rtran s p o rtatio n 40 and 474 41 42 and 473 44 45 4 6 ,4 7 e x c e p t4 7 3 a n d 4 7 4 C O M M U N IC A T IO N A N D P U B L IC U T IL IT IE S 99 100 101 102 103 Com m unications, except radio and TV Radio and TV broadcasting Electric utilities Gas utilities W ater and sanitary services See footnotes at end of tab le. 48 except 4 8 3 48 3 491 and part 493 49 2 and part 493 4 9 4 ,4 9 5 ,4 9 6 , 49 7, and part 493 Table fl-2. Interindustry model sectoring plan for 1980 and 1985 projections—Continued E c o n o m ic G ro w th in d u s try n u m b e r S IC C o d e E c o n o m ic G ro w th in d u s try n u m b e r 1 and title W H O L E S A L E A N D R E T A IL T R A D E 104 W holesale trade 105 Retail trade G O V E R N M E N T E N T E R P R IS E S 50 52, 5 3 , 5 4 ,5 5 ,5 6 ,5 7 ,5 8 , and 59 F IN A N C E , IN S U R A N C E , A N D R EA L E S T A T E 106 107 108 109 S IC c o d e 1 and title Finance Insurance O wner-occupied dwellings Other real estate 122 123 124 125 Post O ffice Com m odity Credit Corporation Other Federal enterprises S tate and local governm ent enterprises (2 ) (2 ) (2 ) (2 ) IM P O R T S 60, 61, 62, and 67 63 and 64 (2 ) 65 and 66 126 D irectly allocated im ports 127 Transferred im ports (2 ) (2 ) D U M M Y IN D U S T R IE S S E R V IC E S 110 111 112 113 114 Hotels and lodging places O ther personal services Miscellaneous business services Advertising Miscellaneous professional services 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 Autom obile repair M o tion pictures O ther am usem ents Health services except hospitals Hospitals Educational services N onprofit organizations 70 72 and 76 73 except 731 731 81 and 89 except 89 2, nonp ro fit research 75 78 79 80 except 806, 0 7 22 806 82 84, 86, and 892 1 S ta n d a rd In d u s tria l C la s s ific a tio n M a n u a l, 1967 edition (Bureau of 128 Business travel, en tertain m en t, and gifts 129 O ffice supplies 130 Scrap, used and secondhand goods (2 ) (2 ) (2 ) S P E C IA L IN D U S T R IE S 131 132 133 134 Government industry Rest of th e world industry Households Inventory valuation ad justm ent (2 ) (2 ) (2 ) (2 ) 2 No com parable industry, th e B u d g e t, n ow O ffic e o f M a n a g e m e n t an d B u d g e t). in most cases. Initial projections are made for the detailed types of construction using historical trends and the relationship of each type to the rate of growth of private GNP. These estimates are then reconciled with total nonresidential construction less commissions and net purchases of used structures. As the projections process pro ceeds, these estimates are reevaluated with respect to the growth in industry require ments and modified where necessary. Investment in equipment, like invest ment in plant construction, is related to the output of the industries producing goods and services for sale to other industries and to final demand, but here the origin of the de mand is not as clearly identified. Most industries require a wide variety of invest ment goods. On the other hand, industries producing investment goods sell equipment to a variety of users. As a result, compar ing the types of investment goods required with the initial estimates of equipment types produced is a more involved process than in the case of nonresidential construction. Initially, producers’ durable equipment is allocated to producing industries based on historical trends and the relationship between types of producers’ durable equip ment and the growrth in private GNP. These estimates, along with industry estimates for all other components of demand GNP, are used to generate preliminary estimates of output by industry. At this point in the projection sequence, there is no assurance that the initial estimates of types of equip ment produced are consistent with the types of investment goods ^required by the generated outputs. However, little informa tion beyond the extension of past trends is possible at this point in the calculations and only a modest effort is expended be cause of a later sequence which balances the demand for producers’ durable equip ment with industry capital requirements. Projections of net inventory change by producing industry are based primarily on industry distribution of these changes for the most recent historical year. The initial projections may be modified as necessary 136 at later stages in the projection process. Less effort is expended on the allocation of net inventory change to the producing in dustries because this item is relatively un important when compared with the other categories of investment expenditure. Federal Government expenditures. The Fed eral Government bill of goods is prepared by breaking the Federal government ac count into two broad groups, defense and nondefense. Within defense, expenditures are further broken between the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC). Based on the assumed level of military employment in the projec tion years, estimates are first made for compensation and expenditures on major consumables affected directly by the level of military employment (expenditures on food, uniforms, etc.). The remainder of the defense expenditures are distributed accord ing to assumptions concerning future devel opments in the major weapons systems of the United States. The nondefense group is broken between the National Aeronautics and Space Admin istration (NASA) and all other nondefense installations. NASA expenditures are dis tributed on the basis of past trends as well as future expectations, not only for the level of space exploration expenditures but also for the direction this activity is expected to take (lunar exploration vs. orbital laboratories, for example-) Federal nondefense expenditures were broken into compensation (from the supply GNP projection model), construction expen ditures (based on historical trends), and expenditures on goods and services (resid ual). The last item was distributed by in dustry according to historical trends, modi fied to some extent by projected shifts in the distribution of nondefense expenditures such as the shift toward computers. pensation of State and local employees in each of these two categories. Independently of these estimates, the State and local purchases submodel, cur rently under development, derives projec tions of State and local purchases and em ployment by eight major end-use catego ries.4 These categories are: education; high ways; health and and hospitals; natural resources; parks and recreation; sanitation; government enterprises; and all other. With in each of these categories, with the excep tion of government enterprises, the projec tions were further broken between struc tures, compensation, and all other expendi tures. The breakdown of government enter prise expenditures was limited to structures and other capital outlays.5 Any differences between this set of projections and those developed by the Thurow model were then reconciled to insure consistency between the two models. In addition to the State and local govern ment expenditures submodel, projections of these same variables were made by tradi tional methods, that is, extrapolation of historical trends with attention to antici pated changes in the functional mix of State and local government expenditures. The most notable areas where these pro jections differed from those developed by the State and local submodel were educa tion, highway construction, and health and hospitals. The reason for these differences was the expectation of major changes in expenditure patterns at the policy level of State and local government. At this point the projections were allo cated to producing industries in order to form the State and local government bill of goods. Expenditures on structures as well as compensation of State and local govern ment employees involved in construction work (force account) were added to the six construction industries. Highway construc tion was allocated to Economic Growth State and local government expenditures. That portion of real demand GNP accounted for by State and local government expendi tures is projected in the aggregate by the Thurow econometric model. The Thurow model develops estimates for both educa tional and other purchases, and for com 4 This State and local model is currently under devel opment in the Division of Economic Growth, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Government enterprise purchases are included in government demand only to the extent that they are capital purchases. Other purchases, including compensa tion of employees, are treated as private sector activities. 137 industry 12, "New highway construction.” The construction component of the remain ing categories of State and local govern ment expenditures was allocated to the remaining construction industries on the basis of recent historical trends and anti cipated shifts in construction priorities. All compensation (with the exception of the construction force account described above) was allocated to industry 131, general gov ernment. These levels of compensation (ex pressed in constant dollars) translate di rectly into the number of State and local jobs in total and by major function; these levels of jobs, of course, are consistent with the State and local share of total employ ment previously projected in the supply GNP derivation. In the same manner, the total levels of State and local compensation comprise — and are consistent with — the State and local contribution to GNP. All other State and local expenditures were split among all the industries on the basis of past trends and anticipated future changes in expenditure patterns. Net foreign demand. Exports and imports are handled separately at their aggregate or total levels in the input-output system and are netted only at a final state in or der to present a conceptually correct level of GNP. Exports are treated as any other component of final demand in the inputoutput system; imports, on the other hand, require a unique treatment. It should be noted that, although in concept the macro model develops projections of exports and imports, these are essentially exogenous. Two steps are followed in the develop ment of the projected export bills of goods. First, data series are developed for mer chandise exports and for various categories of services as presented in the U. S. bal ance of payment accounts. These series are then utilized in the projection of aggregate exports. Where possible, the time series are subdivided according to world area and projected separately for each — although at the present time only a limited amount of this is done. In some cases, it is neces sary to rely on naive forecasting techniques because of the lack of foreign income and price data. After aggregate export projections are developed, they are disaggregated into de mands for the output of each of the indus tries of the input-output table. This is ac complished by analyzing the industry com position of each of the balance of payments categories historically and projecting the industry distributions for these categories to 1980 and 1985. Imports into the United States are grouped into two categories in the inputoutput system. First, imports of interme diate products that have close domestic substitutes are shown as being bought by (or, in input-output terms, transferred to) the industries producing these substitutes, and the domestic industries are, in turn, shown as reselling these imports to the actual user industries.6 Thus, imports of steel are treated as a transfer to either the blast furnaces and basic steel products industry or the iron and steel foundries, forging and miscellaneous products indus try, that is, those industries which produce the domestic counterpart of the imported steel. Second, imports of intermediate products that have no domestic substitutes, in the sense that they cannot be replaced by domestic items in existing production pro cesses without altering the nature of the product,7 and all imports that go into final use without further processing are directly allocated to the user industry or category of final demand. Thus, coffee, which is not produced in the United States, is directly allocated to the food products industry where it is ground, blended, and packaged before being sold to the consuming sector. Also, imported automobiles, not subject to any further steps in the production process, are directly allocated to the personal con6Ones the imported product has been resold to the user industry, no further distinction is made with regard to its source (i.e. foreign or domestic). 7It is realized that this criterion is, at best, an im perfect guide and that the resulting classifications are at times somewhat arbitrary. For further detail on this topic, seeM .A . Sayre,"Treatm ent of Foreign Transactions in the 1958 Industry Relations Study,” unpublished memoran dum #BE-51, August 2, 1965, National Economics Divi sion, Bureau of Economic Analysis (formerly Office of Business Economics), U.S. Department of Commerce. 138 sumption expenditures category of final demand. Once the intermediate imports are assigned to their appropriate classification, they are transformed into coefficients. The coefficients are then projected in much the same way as domestic coefficients in the input-output table, described in the next section. Finally, the resulting projections of intermediate imports are evaluated in the light of implied growth rates, and sup ply requirements and final demand are explicitly projected as a portion of each category of final demand, and thus the technique for projecting them coincides with the method used for that final demand category. In the input-output table, there is an entry at the intersection of each of the two import rows with the net export column. In these entries total imports ap pear as a negative amount, thus yielding net exports when the export column is summed. This procedure is followed to yield a conceptually correct level of GNP when final demand categories are aggregated. cell to the total column sum, becomes a "direct coefficients” matrix. If the demand for an industry’s product, for example, auto mobiles, increases or decreases by a cer tain amount, the direct coefficients of that industry will indicate the proportionate ef fects on other industries such as steel, aluminum, trade, and transportation in dustries. Each of the industries directly affected by a change in demand for automobiles has its own supplying industries. The steel and the coal and iron ore industries, in turn, need other items such as fuel to run the mining machinery and repair parts for equipment. By linking all the input-output coefficients together in a consistent and integrated set of relationships, it is possi ble to trace the effect of a particular de mand, for example, that for automobiles, on each industry back along the production process. These effects include all the raw materials, parts, components, fuels, trans portation, and distributive services which are ultimately included in making the final product, the automobile. The complex relationships among indus tries are encompassed in the coefficients of the total (direct and indirect) requirements matrix, also called an inverse matrix. An inverse matrix (such as table 3 of the 1963 input-output study) provides the basic framework used to explore potential effects on the industrial composition of employ ment in 1980 and 1985 which may result from assumptions with respect to the pro jected level of final demand. Thus, through the use of an input-output system, projections of the demand of final users such as consumers or government can be translated into the total output requirements from all industries. The input-output system After final demand is projected, the out put in each industry necessary to satisfy the projected final demand is computed. The following section describes the inputoutput system used to compute the pro jected toted outputs. Input-output tables. An input-output trans actions table is a rectangular array of numbers which represents the transactions of each sector or industry with all other sectors. Reading across a row, the entries represent the sales of the producing indus try’s output to every consuming industry, including itself, and to the components of final demand. The sum of these entries is total output. Reading down a column, the entries represent the inputs to an indus try from every industry, including itself, used to produce its output. The sum of purchased inputs plus value added8 equals the total output of that industry. An input-output transactions table, when converted into ratios of entries for each Classification in the input-output system. In the 1963 input-output table of the Bu reau of Economic Analysis (BEA), all pro8 Value added in an industry is the income flow m eas ure of gross national product originating in an industry adjusted for input-output accounting conventions. Value added is composed of labor compensation, proprietors’ income, profits, interest, depreciation, and indirect busi ness taxes. 139 ductive sectors were grouped into 476 sec tors. The BEA also provided aggregations of the 476-sector table into 367 and 87 sectors. The 134-order table used in these projections was collapsed from the 367order table as published by BEA. The steps involved in collapsing the table will be outlined in the "stages of projection” section. Most of the producing industries are combinations of detailed establishments as defined in the Standard Industrial Classi fication Manual (SIC), 1967 edition, pre pared by the Office of Management and Budget. The SIC content of the Economic Growth 134-order, interindustry classifica tion system is given in table A-2. and to make scrap generation a function of output, the BEA (and BLS) adopted the following procedure: The scrap industry is dropped out of the table by adding the scrap industry column entries to the diago nal cell of the industry actually generating the scrap. In addition, the scrap row, that is, input of scrap, is deleted from the ma trix. This creates an imbalance in the col umn sum since the scrap input and "output” are rarely, if ever, equal for any one indus-try. In the BEA publications, another row entitled "scrap and by-product adjustment” is added which is precisely the negative of the imbalance. Economic Growth industry 132, "Rest of world,” is modified by BLS from the proce dure used by BEA to exclude travel re ceipts from foreign visitors and personal remittances in kind to foreigners. This ad justment affects the industry detail of final demand in the personal consumption expen ditures and export categories. The government sectors are classified into two major categories, government en terprises and general government. All Fed eral, State, and local enterprises, that is, agencies deriving 50 percent or more of their revenue from sales to the public, are included in EG industries 122 through 125, along with their respective employment and total receipts. EG industry 123, "Commodi ty Credit Corporation” (CCC) is modified by adding all of its intermediate inputs to the respective government final demand category. The employment associated with the CCC and the employment involved with general government activities, teaching, ad ministration, etc., at the Federal, State and local levels are included in EG industry 131, "Government industry.” EG industry 126, "Directly allocated im ports,” and EG industry 127, "Transferred imports,” cover U. S. payments to foreign ers for merchandise services and factors of production. Items classified in EG industry 126, "Directly allocated imports,” have no equivalent domestic products or are con sumed in final demand. Items classified in EG industry 127, "Transferred imports,” have equivalent domestic products. The service of domestics is classified in EG in dustry 133, "Households.” Industry conventions of the input-output system. In the 1963 input-output industry classification there are three industries which do not exist in the real world. These industries, called "dummy industries,” are included to simplify the treatment of cer tain product flows. Output of these dummy industries represents an aggregation of commodities or services which are produced in other industries. Generally, the informa tion available on their consumption is for total consumption only. Thus, the products are treated as being sold to the dummy industry which then sells them to the con suming industries. One such dummy indus try is Economic Growth Industry 129, "Of fice supplies,” which "buys” office supplies from the producing industries and then "sells” office supplies to the consuming industries. The other two dummy industries which perform similar functions are "Busi ness, travel, entertainment, and gifts” (EG industry 128), and "Scrap, used and second hand” (EG industry 129). Purchases from the dummy industries do not generate em ployment or output in these industries them selves. Rather, the employment and output is generated in the industries which actually produce the products and services. In addi tion to being a dummy industry the scrap industry presents the following problem. An increase in scrap demand, would, by virtue of the nature of the input-output model, generate output in other industries to pro duce this scrap. To eliminate this problem 140 Valuation of transactions. Input-output re lationships may be expressed either in pro ducers’ or purchasers’ value. Specifically, the inputs for making an automobile can be valued at the price paid by the pur chaser or the price received by the produc er. In the BEA input-output tables and those used by the Division of Economic Growth, producers’ value is used. In using producers’ valuation, inputs into a con suming industries are valued at producers’ prices. Trade margins and transportation costs associated with these inputs appear as direct purchases by the consuming in dustry from the trade and transportation industries. In effect, the purchase price is still there but the demand is divided into components which are purchased separately. Since the input-output table is in pro ducers’ value, all trade and transportation margins must also be stated as demand on these sectors in the final demand estimates. Once the estimated margins have been separated in the final demand estimates, the margins are aggregated and used as the final demand estimates for the trade, transportation, and other industries. Mar gin ratios associated with each transac tion and final demand categories were de veloped as part of the 1963 input-output study by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. This informal tion was used to convert final demand expenditures in purchasers’ value into pro ducers’ value for the years covered by these projections. If the input-output table were stated in purchasers’ value, the connection between producing and consuming industries would be lost. In a purchasers’ value table, the trade sectors would purchase most prod ucts from the producing industries and sell these products to the consuming industries. In producers’ value, the material or ser vices can be "sold” directly to the consum ing industry or sector. This method has the added advantage of showing the rela tionships between the producing industry and final demand categories on a compara ble (producers’ value) basis. Using a pro ducers’ value system eliminates the sale of products to the trade sectors. The output of these trade sectors is then measured in terms of total margins, that is, operating expenses plus profit. Secondary product transfers. The transac tions recorded in an input-output table are based on data contained in the Census of Manufactures, the Census of Transporta tion, and other economic censuses. The Bureau of the Census assigns an establish ment to an industry based on its primary output, that is, those products or services which produce the largest portion of its revenue. However, in addition to primary products, many establishments produce other products, called secondary products (or services), which are different from the primary output. Input-output analysis is simplified if all output of a given product or service can be sold from a single industry. To accomplish this, an artificial sale, called a transfer, is introduced into the input-output table. In a transfer, the industry which produces the output as a secondary product "sells” this output to the industry whose primary prod uct corresponds to this item. Inthisprocess, the total output of the primary product in dustry is thus increased by the amount of this transfer since it becomes an input, albeit an artificial input. For example, electric power is produced in the electric utility industry, 101, the primary industry, and industries 124 and 125, the secondary industries, "other Federal enterprises,” and "State and local government enterprises,” respectively. In this situation the electric power output of Federal Government and State and local government power plants is transferred to the private electric utility industry for distribution to the consuming industries and final demand sectors. In this way, the final demand for a product gener ates production in both the primary industry and in the industry where the product is secondary. This transfer approach is widely used to distribute the output of a number of indus tries. The three dummy industries which were discussed in the section on input-out put conventions receive all of their output as transfers from the producing industry. The transfer technique also permits the 141 aggregative industry groups. In dividing the U.S. economy into approximately 134 sectors, broad industry groupings such as food and kindred products are created. These large sectors include different com modities and services, each of which has its own set of input requirements. If the pro duction of the various commodities changes at different rates, then the total input coef ficients of the sector may also change. This can occur even if there are no technological changes in the producing industries. For example, the food industry is composed of 32 separate 4-digit SIC industry classifica tions ranging from bakery products to wet corn milling. Output of all of these sectors may grow at different rates. Further, sincq input requirements of these sectors can and do differ somewhat, input coefficients (and output) of the food industry may change due to the change in product mix. final demand bill of goods to be classified only by primary product. One alternative treatment of transfers is used when secondary production is large and inherently different from the primary output of an industry, such as the baking of bakery products by small retail establish ments. In these instances, the industries are redefined—the secondary products and their associated inputs are removed per manently from the producing industries and assigned to the primary industries. In the situation above, inputs and output resulting from the baking activities were taken from the trade sector and placed in the food in dustry. Primary examples are the removal of trade margin output from all industries other than trade, and the removal of ser vice activities, especially auto repair, from trade. Base-year prices. The basic input-output table is for the year 1963 and is in 1963 prices. The 1970 table and each of the pro jected tables for 1980 and 1985 are also in base-year or 1963 prices. Developing pro jections in base-year prices does not ignore changes in relative price. For example, pro jected changes in relative prices are used in developing the detailed estimates of con sumer expenditures. Also, the change in relative price is implicit in projections of input-output relationships. The substitution of one material for another due to relative price change may affect input-output coef ficients in the same way as technological change. Again, by developing the projec tions in a constant price level, the changes in output, demand, or input-output coef ficients represent changes in quantities. Projection of input-output coefficients. The need to project input-output coefficients arises because continuing change occurs and is expected to occur in the ratios of input to output in industries. These changes come from a variety of causes. Technological change is one of these. Other factors, such as product mix or price change, also can cause significant change in coefficients. Product-mix problems are inherent in a system that uses fixed classifications and 142 Stages of projection. Before turning to the specific methods of coefficient projection, it is necessary to consider the context in which those projections are made. As noted in the preceding section, an input-output system may be thought of in four related parts; 1) the matrix of intermediate inter industry transactions which is converted to direct coefficients, 2) the set of values added in the industries 3) the set of final demands for the industries, and 4) the set of industry outputs. Each is dependent on the other and must be mutually consistent in order to produce a balanced system. Al though certain coefficients may be projec ted independently, the projection of coeffi cients cannot be a totally independent opertion but must be made in conjunction with projections of industry final demands. All projections of input-output relation ships begin with a set of input-output tables for a base year. For the 1980-85 projections, the base-year table was the 367-order inputoutput transaction matrix prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. From this starting point, the first step was to collapse the 367-order table into a 134-order table. It should be noted that, with two minor ex ceptions, the 134-sector table is directly collapsible into the 87-sector classification used by BEA and by BLS in previous pro jections. Collapsing a table involves adding selected industries from the 367-sector table to form the industries in the new table. Also, an adjustment is made to eliminate secondary product transfers between the input-output sectors being collapsed into one sector. Next, to incorporate recent structural changes, the base* year table was updated to the latest year for which reasonably complete data are available— 1970. This 1970 table is useful, both in it self and as the base for the projections to 1980 and 1985. When an updated input-output table is developed for a nonbenchmark year, 1970, some of the necessary data are not avail able. Output levels by industry were esti mated from Bureau of the Census data and other sources. Industry output levels in real terms were made using BLS data de flated to 1963 price levels and adjusted for secondary product transfers consistent with input-output conventions. Final demand and price data were taken from estimates pro duced by the Department of Commerce, pub lished annually in the July issue of the Survey of Current Business. Final demands were deflated and translated into industry demands. All of these data were then con verted from purchasers’ to producers’ value, with adjustments for changing trade, trans portation, and insurance margins. When projecting an input-output table, all the problems mentioned above exist; in addition, of course, the need to judge future changes enters. For example, industry struc tures, growth rates, and production proces ses may change due to factors unforeseen or imperfectly understood. Development of an input-output system for a projected year requires estimating all parts of the system as well as intergrating those parts into a balanced system. Matrix updating. The first step in develop ing the 1970 input-output table was to esti mate industry output and final demand by industry. As noted above, the existing data required a number of adjustments due to input-output conventions and the need to state input-output data in base-year prices. 143 One such adjustment was to replace the 1963 direct coefficients with independently updated estimates for 1970 where such estimates had been made. One example where this information exists, and where revised coefficients are substituted directly, is the import sectors. With the incorporation of the independently estimated coefficients, the "actual” and "derived” intermediate demands are calculated. Since output had been independently de termined, the actual and derived output could be compared to determine the dif ference. Given the many questions, prob lems, and estimates which were used in preparing the updated figures, a difference of =t 2 percent was viewed as acceptable. Larger differences were analyzed. This step has been one of the most fruitful in un covering unsolved or unrecognized prob lems. Problems have been uncovered in vir tually every area-final demand, deflators, original total output, coefficients-each has been found to contribute to the gap or dif ference in some of the sectors. Errors in final demand estimates occurred because the product mix within a consumer classifi cation had changed but the allocation of that demand to industries had been initially based on the base-year distribution. Changes in the transportation and trade margins may also have occurred in the time since the base-year table was assem bled. Errors of this type often can be de tected only by working simultaneously with the coefficients, industry outputs, and final demands. Whenever a number of changes in coef ficients, outputs, or final demands were made in the system, the gap analysis was redone. If the appropriate corrections have been introduced, the total gaps, on the average, should have become progressively smaller and many individual gaps elimi nated. The next step was to calculate the dif ferences by industry between "actual” in termediate demand and the "derived” in termediate demand which was generated by the base-year direct-coefficients matrix. Actual intermediate demand for an indus since it has possibilities of distortion which must be adjusted for. If the scaling procedure is done accurate ly, the system will be in balance, i.e.: try is simply its total output less its final demand: x- y = T where X is an N by 1 vector of total output, Y is an N by 1 vector of final demand, T is an N by 1 vector of intermediate output. X - Y = AX = T where X is an N by 1 vector of total outputs, Y is an N by 1 vector of final demands, A is an N by matrix of direct coefficients, T is an N by 1 vector representing sum of interme diate transactions matrix. The "derived” intermediate demands were calculated by premultiplying the cur rent year output of each sector by a matrix of base-year direct coefficients. In matrix terms, this calculation is expressed as: ax Methods of coefficient projection. Several techniques were used to project the inputoutput coefficients used in this study. One set of techniques is concerned with individ ual coefficients. Another set of techniques is more general and focuses on interindus try relationships with the added objective of achieving a balanced system.The first approach utilizes specific data changes for selected input-output coefficients. Such changes must be analyzed to determine the factor causing changes. Among such factors are changing product mix, price changes, and/or technological changes. Estimates were made of these factors for the ex pected influence on the industry’s projected purchases per dollar of its output. In addi tion to statistical data, qualitative informa tion was utilized when possible. The second general approach to esti mating the 1980 and 1985 coefficients takes account of the other data and control totals at the industry level. For example, an in crease in electronics use in many different sectors may be assumed, although the pre cise future usage by any given industry is uncertain. In the more general method of coefficient projection, changes in the sales of an industry to other sectors over time are analyzed, that is, an industry is viewed as a row in the conventional input-output table. In updating coefficients, first to 1970 and then projecting to 1980-85, both ap proaches were utilized. =T where A is an N by N direct coefficient matrix, X is an N by 1 vector of total output, T is an N by 1 vector of intermediate outputs; N in this set of calculations was equal to 134. The actual and derived intermediate de mand for each sector were then compared. When time, resources, and/or data were exhausted, there still remained a number of industries where the derived output de viated by more than =t 2 percent from the independently estimated value of output. At this point, an estimate was made of value added by industry, or the difference between real output and the sum of pur chases of materials and services inputs, also in real terms. By the nature of the input-output system, total derived value added will always equal total final demand. Further, the procedure used by BLS in estimating the intermediate matrix and total outputs is almost the same as the double deflation procedure used in estimating the gross product originating by industry in the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Thus, for 1970, a rough reconciliation of value added and GNP originating could be made. How ever, only a reconciliation at very aggrega tive levels was made and only a few, rather large, adjustments were made as a result of this part of the analysis. The final balancing was done by an itera tive procedure which balanced final de mands, value added, by detailed sector, and also the independently estimated cells. This procedure, known as the RAS, will balance the matrix of transactions while the independently estimated data are held con stant. Again, the procedure is not automatic Coefficients projections to 1980 and 1985. Projecting coefficients and developing a bal anced input-output system for a future year or period, such as 1980-85, involves some parallel and some different procedures com pared to estimating a historical year. First, data on industry outputs, final demands, 144 and technological advances contributing to* coefficient change in 1980-85 must be en tirely estimated, although past trend data could be used to help do so. The first step in developing the direct coefficients matrix for 1980 was to estimate the 1960 to 1970 trends of coefficient change by industry. A large change in the coefficients of an industry could result from a one-time shift in its input structure due to a major technological advance; further rapid changes in larger coefficients are not likely to continue indefinitely. An example is the growth of tufted versus woven car peting where the change was very rapid. On the other hand, a gradual, well-defined change in the structure of a particular in dustry, or in the relative importance of some coefficients within an industry, may continue over a long period of time. An example here was the long time required to convert steel production to the basic oxygen process. Information gained from individual industry studies also may contribute to the projection of trends. These sources of in formation were used to adjust the 1970 matrix, which then became a first approxi mation of the 1980 and 1985 direct coef ficients matrix. The second step in developing the 1980 and 1985 system was the estimation of final demands by industry; the estimation pro cedures for final demand are covered thoroughly in the section on final demand in this appendix. Total output is then the result of the in dependently projected coefficient matrix. In reality, the methods used by the Economic Growth group included a phase of evaluating outputs derived from the ma trix with past sector trends in output as well as independent projections of output. This evaluation process is described in the section on balancing the projections. Output per man-hour. In order to progress from the projection of the growth rates of industry outputs to the projection of em ployment in each industry, it is necessary to develop an estimate of the change in in dustry output per man-hour. Four alternative means of projecting in dustry productivity were used: ( 1) a re gression approach which expressed the ra tio "output per man-hour" as a function of time and the domestic output of the indus try (2) a least squares time trend of the ratio "output per man-hour;” (3) an adjust ment method, that is, adjusting the histori cal least squares trend of industry produc tivity for changes in the projected output growth rate relative to historical least squares trend of output, and (4) an ad hoc projection of productivity for those indus tries whose historical and projected output trends are very dissimilar. The final in dustry projections do not conform to any one of these four methods although the third method was used the most. Microeconomic or industry projections of employment The projections of output by sector are the essential input to projections of employ ment by industry. In developing projections of employment, both changes in output per man-hour and changes in man-hours are used. 145 Method One: Regression approach. The re gression approach expresses the demand for labor services, output per man-hour, as a function of time and output: Output/man-hour — a -+ a log output -t- a-j time. - This approach seeks to account for the short-term responses of cyclical movements of labor demand to output fluctuations in order to obtain estimates of the long-term trend of labor demand. The model assumes the trends of capital services and technolo gy can be approximated by a time variable. The estimated coefficient of output " a ” , re flects the cyclincal response of labor demand to output flucuations. This coefficient can be interpreted as returns to labor if the capital utilization rate is assumed constant through time, or it may be interpreted as returns to scale if the utilization rate of capital stock varies through time. In the actual use of this regression method, there was no attempt to distinguish between the short- and long-term trends of labor demand but, rather, the estimated equation was used as is. The regression method was rejected for two reasons. First, this method is inconsis tent with the macro model assumption that long-run productivity is totally inelastic to long-run output fluctuations. The macro productivity assumption for the entire pro jected period, 1968 to 1985, is 2.7 percent per year for the private nonfarm economy. But the private GNP is projected to grow 4.4 percent per year between 1968 and 1980 and 3.4 percent per year for 1980 to 1985. The regression method assumes labor demand responds to output fluctuations. The second reason for rejecting the regression method is that the estimated coefficients of output " a ” were judged too large for many industries. Independent analysis in dicated that the response of labor to long term output trend changes should be ap proximately 0.3 for manufacturing indusgrowth rate relative to a historical least jection period, 1968-1985, is 2.7 percent 0.5 percent. Because of problems ofmulticollinearity between time and output, itwas felt that these larger output coefficients mixed short and long responses of labor demand to output fluctuations. The results of the regression method are not surprising when one considers the shortness of the database, only 13 years, and the particular years selected, years when in general the growth of productivity for many industries was low. Thus, the high "a ” coefficient is consistent. long and short trends as estimated by the regression equation, but it proved unwork able for those industries with significant changes in projected output trends. For example, the projected output trends of the two industries "computers” and "photo graphic equipment” are slower than their respective 1958-70 trends. These two in dustries were among the fastest growing historically, in excess of 12.0 percent per year, and are projected to be the fastest growing in 1968-80, at 9.0 percent per year. But because of the slower projected output trends, it was thought appropriate to slow the productivity growth trends in the pro jected period. Method Three: Cross-sectional data. The third approach to projecting the long-term relationship of output and employment starts with the least squares time trend of Method Two and adjusts this trend upwards or downwards by some percentage of the difference between projected and historical output trends. This percentage adjustment was estimated using cross-sectional data: regressing the 1958-70 least squares time trend of output: (Rate of productivity change) = a 2 + a^ (Rate of output change) This approach is comparable to the regres sion method except that the equation is expressed in first differences and the data are cross-sectional rather than time series. This method assumes the response of labor to output fluctuations is identical for all in dustries within a particular sector—such as durable manufacturing or nondurable manu facturing. As in the previous time-trend method, only the estimated coefficient was used. In this case, only the estimated coefficient of output is used. The estimated coefficient of output change was interpreted to say: For every 1 percentage point faster (slower) average annual rate of output growth (than the historical trend), productivity would grow "a ” percent faster (slower) an nually. For durable and nondurable manu facturing, the estimated coefficients " a ” were respectively 0.32 and 0.37. Therefore, for computers, a durable manufacturing in Method Two: A least squares time trend. The second approach expresses the demand for labor, output per man-hour, as a lunction of time only: log output/man-hour = a 0 + a 2 time. This approach assumes the long-term relationship of output and employment is unaffected by fluctuations in the long-term trend of output. It further assumes capital and technology can be approximated by the time variable. The estimated coefficient of time was used as the long-term coefficient of labor demand and the estimated constant term was discarded in the projections. That is, there was no attempt to see whether the 1968 industry output per man-hour value deviated from its estimated long-term trend. This approach was desirable for it elimi nated the problems of distinguishing the 146 dustry, the productivity trend would be 0.96 percentage points per year slower than its historical trend because this industry’s pro jected output trend is 3.0 percent per year slower. Productivity (1 9 6 8 -8 0 ) = 0.32 + productivity (1 96 8-70) This estimated coefficient of output meas ures the average rate of change of produc tivity related to output changes, whereas the coefficient is used to calculate the mar ginal rate of change of productivity. Method Four: Ad hoc productivity projec tions. The final method was necessary for those industries whose historical and pro jected output trends were incompatible. The historical trends of the defense-related in dustries such as aircraft, guided missiles, and other ordnance reflect the Vietnam war spending of 1965-71, but the projections as sume peace-time defense spending. For an industry such as coal mining, historical productivity trends are not likely to be con tinued because of deeper mines, recent mine safety legislation, and changes in type of coal demanded to meet pollution regula tions. Finally energy-related industries such as crude petroleum, petroleum refining, and gas utilities have historically met demand mainly from domestic sources, but these projections assume that these industries will increasingly be supplied from foreign sources, particularly over the period to 1980. Average weekly hours. To continue the pro gress from the projection of growth rates in industry output and output per man-hour to projections of employment in each indus try, it is further necessary to develop esti mated changes in the average workweek (on a hours paid basis) for each industry. For the most part, sector level projections were based on historical trends, with some judgmental analysis entering in mining, trade, and other services. The projected rates of growth for average weekly hours by industry were assumed to be the same as those projected for the sector to which the industry belongs. Employment. The estimates of employment for each of the 124 industries were derived 147 from the projected levels of output, output per man-hour, and average annual hours. First, for each industry, projected output was divided by the estimated output per man-hour ratio in order to arrive at total projected man-hours in each industry. Total man-hours were in turn divided by proj ected average annual hours, yielding projected employment by industry. These industry employment estimates include wage and salary workers, unpaid family workers, and the self-employed. The total employment estimate for each industry was divided into these three components using historical industry distributions, with consideration for discernable trends. In the procedure just described, employ ment was derived from estimated changes in output per man-hour and estimated 1980 and 1985 outputs. When output by industry is not of interest, there is a shortcut proce dure by which the estimates of final demand by sector can be directly converted into em ployment. In the procedure, the 1980 and 1985 inverse matrices are converted into interindustry employment tables. This is accomplished by multiplying each row of the inverse matrix by the projected em ployment/output ratio for the industry of that row: E = R (I - A)~l where E = interindustry employment table, R = diagonal matrix of industry employment/output ratios, (I-A ) = Leontief inverse matrix. Ti e resulting matrix can be used to dustry into the direct employment required in that industry in meet this final demand and the indirect employment required in the supporting industries which provide the raw materials, parts, components, fuel, transportation, and distribution services embodied in one of these final demands. System balancing procedures The 1980-85 projections contain many complex relationships among economic var iables that were developed through a lengthy sequence of operations. It is nec essary to have a set of checks and bal ances to insure that the various stages of the projections make up an internally con sistent model. The economic growth model is designed to provide a feedback and bal ancing procedure with respect to three of its elements, imports, investment, and em ployment. Although the treatment of these elements has been discussed earlier, their special importance in balancing the sys tem warrants separate presentations. In practice, all three must be brought into balance simulatenously. Imports. As was noted in earlier descrip tions, imports are treated in several ways. First, total imports are estimated within the Thurow macromodel and offset against total exports in order to arrive at the net export component of gross national pro duct. Next, imports to final demand are estimated as a part of the estimation of demand GNP by industry in personal con sumption expenditures, gross private do mestic investment, and government expen ditures. Intermediate imports are expressed as two sets of coefficients within the inputoutput matrix. Those intermediate imports competitive with U. S. goods are trans ferred to the producing industry. Those intermediate inports that do not have U.S. produced counterparts are directly allo cated to the consuming industry. When total outputs are generated, the import coefficients generate estimated intermedi ate imports. These estimates, summed with final demand import estimates, are compared with the level of total imports as generated in the macromodel. Next, adjustments are made in import coeffici ents and final demand imports to arrive at a balance between the generated and projected imports. In this particular set of projections great difficulties were encountered in balancing imports. The decision was made to leave imports in imbalance rather than strain industry relationships completely beyond historical trends. In 1980, generated im ports outweigh total projected imports by approximately $3.6 billion. This is prima rily due to the large assumed bulge in U. S. imports of crude and refined oil. It was felt to be unreasonable to decrease imports in other industries to offset this increase. At the same time it did not seem reasonable to increase total projected im ports. Thus, it is left to the reader to de cide the best method of resolving this dif ficulty. The import projections for 1985 are in balance. Gross private domestic investment. The first step in balancing GPDI within the sys tem is to check and, if necessary, modify the levels of two categories within this component. These categories are nonresidential fixed investment (composed of busi ness structures and producers’ durable equipment) and net inventory change. An initial distribution of investment in producers’ durable equipment is based on historical trends. The allocation of net in ventory change is based on the distribu tion in a representative historical period. An initial set of outputs is generated and modifications are made to the allocation of projected net inventory change on the ba sis of implied rates of growth of output by industry. Composition of inventory change is weighted toward those sectors which have unusually high projected rates of growth in output. For producers’ durable equipment and certain components of nonresidential struc tures, a somewhat more sophisticated bal ancing procedure is undertaken. Invest ment-output ratios are first developed for each industry. These ratios are then pro jected to the target years where strong trends exist, or are related to projected industry growth rates where the histori cal trend was likely to misrepresent fu ture developments. Applying these pro jected ratios to the initial projections of industry outputs yields estimates of invest ment in producers’ durable equipment and nonresidential structures by purchasing in dustry. To compare these implied invest ment requirements with the initial alloca tion, it is necessary to transform them from investment purchases by industry to invest ment goods production by industry. A capi tal flow table is used for this purpose; such a table traces transactions in investment goods between capital-producing and capital-consuming industries. Only two capi 148 tal flow matrices are presently available: the first, for 1958, developed by the BLS, and the second, for 1963, developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.9 However, both row and column totals are available through 1969. Using historical trends, the totals for these rows (producers’ durable equipment by producing industry) and col umns (producers’ durable equipment by consuming industry) were projected to the target years. A scaling process1 was then 0 utilized to recompute the capital flows ma trix in a manner consistent with the pro jected row and column totals. The projected investment/output ratios are then applied to the capital flow table to arrive at PDE by producing industry as implied in the initial projections of output. If significant differences are noted between the original allocation of PCE and that implied by pro jected output, then modifications are made to bring these items into balance. made in the individual industry projections of output per man-hour. If these projec tions of output per man-hour could be relied on, the aggregate productivity used in the first step of the projections could be modi fied. However, the modifications usually are made in the detailed industries’ pro jected rates of change in output per man hour, because, first, the aggregate output per man-hour rates have been stable over most of the postwar period and, second, much remains to be learned about the ap propriate method for projecting industry productivity. Plans fo r d e v e lo p m e n t of d a ta and techniques A number of research efforts are now planned or underway both within the Divi sion of Economic Growth and under its sponsorship. The objective of these research projects in the development of the tech niques and additional data leading to im proved projections of economic growth. Employment. The last area where a balanc ing check is made is total employment. After the economic growth calculations are completed, employment by industry is de rived. These individual industry employ ment levels are totaled and checked against the total employment (on a job basis) used in deriving the potential growth rate of GNP in the supply GNP block of the esti mation process. If these levels do not match, several elements within the projec tions are checked. For each sector the pro jections of final demand, input-output coef ficients, and output per man-hour are evaluated. Modifications are made when ever inconsistencies appear in order to bring about the desired balance in employ ment. Most often these modifications are Thurow reestimation Work is currently underway to reesti mate the Thurow model. The data base will be updated to 1972, adding 4 years to the observations. In addition to the revised database, some changes are being planned for the model itself. The employment sec tor of the model is being revised in con cept so that the labor input to the produc tion function will be based on establishment data, rather than on household data as it is currently estimated. Participation rates and unemployment will continue to be based on household survey data, with a conver sion equation to derive the establishment equivalent for use in the production rela tionships. In addition to this change in the labor input, the production function will be disaggregated into a farm and a nonfarm sector. In the State and local government sector there will also be improvements in estimation techniques and in the selection of lst-stage instruments in the 2-stage least squares estimates. 9See Capital Flow Matrix, 1958, Bulletin 1601, (B u reau of Labor Statistics, 1968), and also A. H. Young, et al, "Interindustry Transactions in New Structures and Equipment,” Survey o f Current Business, August 1971, pp. 16-22. ' 0 For a description of this scaling procedure see either of the following: Richard Stone, ed., A Programme For Growth 3, Input-Output Relationships, 1954-1966, (C am bridge University Department of Applied Economics, 1963); or Lucy J. Slater, More Fortran Programs For Economists, Occasional Paper # 3 4 , (Cambridge Univer sity Department of Applied Economics, 1972). 149 R evision s of the Thurow m odel Foreign trad e subm odel The most important revision of the model planned for the immediate future is a modi fication of the supply sector. The private production function currently in the model has a tendency to overpredict private GNP. It is believed that the technological change component of the production function is biased upward due to structural shifts which have increased employment in high pro ductivity sectors relative to low productivity sectors. The movement of labor from agri cultural to nonagricultural employment is an example of such a shift. Separate farm and nonfarm production functions have been estimated to correct for this part of the structural shift. It may be necessary to make further adjustments to the production relationships to account for other aspects of this problem. Several other possible modifications are under consideration. In very general terms, some of these involve: expanding certain sectors to project more detail, making parts of Federal Government purchases endoge nous, and adding more monetary sector equations and policy variables. A foreign trade submodel is currently be ing considered which would be used in con junction with the Thurow macroe conometric model. The model would provide estimates of merchandise exports at the 3-digit SIC level of detail as well as estimates of major services accounts in the balance of pay ments. The model would be demand ori ented, with exports expressed as a function of relative prices and foreign levels of de mand. Imports would be determined at a somewhat more aggregated level of detail in order to yield estimates of the net U.S. foreign trade position. The model would operate as a submodel of the Thurow model and provisions for feedback to the Thurow model are not planned at present. Gross private domestic investment As mentioned earlier, two capital flows matrices and time series on investment by industry are currently available for use in projecting the demand for capital by pro ducing industries. Current and planned ef forts by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and others will improve both the projected esti mates of investment by industry and the projected capital flows relationships. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will construct a capital flows matrix for 1967 to complement the 1967 input-output table now being developed. Jack Faucett Asso ciates will soon complete work on capital stock series by industry. Estimates through 1966 were released too late for incorpora tion into this set of projections. The current work by Jack Faucett Associates will revise and extend these data through the most recent year for which data are available. By using capital stock data, it is planned to explore other methods of determining in vestment requirements by industry beyond the investment output relationships used in the current set of projections. State and local governm ent expenditures submodel A submodel of State and local govern ment expenditures is being developed for use in the next series of projections. This new model will be used as a supplement to the State and local sector of the Thurow model, providing more detailed and compre hensive projections than are currently avail able. These detailed projections will provide a control total for preparing a State and local bill of goods. In addition to more func tional detail, the submodel will provide esti mates of capital outlays for several State and local government functions, employ ment, transfers, and current expenditures of government enterprises. The submodel will be partially driven by Thurow model projections of personal income. Whether the sub-model will be fully integrated into the macromodel' or used as a separate model has not been determined. Personal consumption expenditures Plans for research in PCE include updating the Houtakker-Taylor equations using 150 1967 constant dollars and an extended data base, developing a set of optimal product aggregates, and studying alternative esti mation techniques. The bridging techniques will be evaluated and modified while incor porating the 1967 1-0 table. Concurrent with the above tasks and depending upon the availability of data will be a study of consumer behavior using information to become available from the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey and other sources. ods developed to project output per man hour by industry have, in general, been rela tively unsuccessful. A system of industry projections is cur rently being explored which introduces such variables as capital-labor ratios and labor quality in addition to current explanatory variables: output, man-hours, and time. Fur ther, the historical data base is being ex panded to include a larger portion of the postwar period. A greater emphasis will be placed on sector-level projections of output per man-hour, with the industry level pro jections being used to disaggregate these sector projections. A research effort is un derway to extend the time series on output, man-hours, and employment back to 1947. It is believed that a longer time series will improve the estimating tech niques explored. Output per man-hour As is apparent in reading the methodolo gy for developing the 1980-85 projections, estimation of rates of growth in output per man-hour relies primarily on past trends for most of the industries. Statistical meth 151 Appendix B. Industrial Composition of Final Demand by Category, Input-Output Matrices, and Related Data Contents Page Explanatory notes.................................................................................................................154 Tables: B-l. Values of exogenous inputs to Thurow econometric model, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.......................................... 156 B-2. Derivation of personal income, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985............................................................................................158 B-3. Demand GNP and major components, selected years 1955-72 and pro jected for 1980 and 1985.............. 160 Industrial composition of final demand, 1963, 1970, and prjected for 1980 and 1985: 162 B-4. Total final demand........................................................ B-5. Personal consumption expenditures............................................................. 164 B-6. Durable goods.................................................................................................166 B-7. Nondurable goods.................................................. 168 B-8. Services.......................................................... 170 B-9. Gross private domestic investment.............................................................. 172 B-10. Fixed investment............................................................................................174 B -ll. Net exports............,........................................................................................ 176 B-12. Federal Government purchases................................................................... 178 B-13. Defense purchases......................................................................................... 180 B-14. State and local government purchases........................................................182 152 C o n te n ts— Continued Input-output matrices: B-15. Direct requirements per dollar of gross output, 1970.................................184 B-16. Total employment (direct and indirect) per billion dollars of delivery to final demand, 1970.....................................................................................228 B-17. Direct requirements per dollar of gross output, 1985.................................272 B-18. Total employment (direct and indirect) per billion dollars of delivery to final demand, 1985.....................................................................................316 Factoring changes: B-19. Factoring changes in output, B-20. Factoring changes in output, B-21. Factoring changes in output, B-22. Average coefficient change, 1963-70........................................................... 360 1970-80........................................................... 362 1980-85........................................................... 364 1963-85............................................................366 153 Explanatory Notes sumption expenditures is a positive rest-ofthe-world entry of the same size for net ex ports. This entry is also eliminated and then redistributed in the same pattern used to re distribute the entry for personal consump tion expenditures. The 1963-dollar final demands shown in tables B-4 through B-14 add to totals based on demand-side GNP component deflators, where as the corresponding totals shown in the text have been adjusted to be consistent with a 1963-dollar GNP based on supplyside deflators. As a result of this and an aggregation problem in the 1970 data, the two sets of 1963-dollar GNP components are slightly different. The data shown in tables B-4 through B-14 were those used in the input-output part of the projections. Tables B-6 through B-8. The breakdown of personal consumption expenditures among durables, nondurables, and services is based on the classification used in the national income accounts (see appendix table A -l). The data in tables B-6, -7, and -8 sum to total personal consumption expenditures as shown in table B-5. Table B-4. Total final demand is the sum of demands from consumers, business, govern ment, and foreign sources; the column totals are equal to GNP. The data are the sums of the corresponding entries in tables B-5, -9, -11, -12, and -14. For 1963 only, an ad justment has been made for Commodity Credit Corporation inputs which has the effect of increasing the sum of the 1963 total final demand column by about $1.5 billion over the GNP total. See notes for table B-12 for an explanation of this ad justment. Table B-9. Gross private domestic invest ment includes private demands for struc tures and producers’ durable equipment and the change in business inventories. Table B-5. The treatment of the rest-ofthe-world industry (132) differs from that adopted by the Department of Commerce in its input-output study for 1963. In the Department of Commerce study, expendi tures in the United States by foreigners and personal remittances in kind to for eigners are shown as negative purchases by personal consumption from the rest-ofthe-world industry. In the BLS data, for all years, the negative entry has been elimina ted and distributed among the other in dustries. The sum of personal consumption expenditures is unaffected by this adjust ment. Corresponding to the original nega tive rest-of-the-world entry for personal con 154 Table B-10. Fixed investment is equal to total investment (table B-9) less inventory change. Entries for the new construction industries (12-16) represent all private in vestment in structures. The entry for other real estate (109) represents real estate commissions. Sales of both used equipment and structures are included in the scrap, used and secondhand goods industry (130). The entries for all other industries repre sent demands for producers’ durable equip ment. Table B -ll. The detailed entries represent gross exports of goods and services. The entries for industries 126 and 127, imports, contain gross imports of goods and services with a negative sign so that the sum of the column is equal to net exports. The percent distribution in this table is based on a total which excludes industries 126 and 127. It is, therefore, a distribution eliminated from this table (see note for table B-12). of gross rather than net exports. See the discussion of the special treat ment of the rest-of-the-world industry in the notes for table B-5. Table B-16. The entries in each column show employment required directly or in directly per $1 billion of delivery to final demand by the industry named at the head of the column. Final demand is valued at the site of production (producers’ value) and excludes transportation and handling charges. See appendix A, p. 141, for a discussion of the valuation of final demands. Employment includes wage and salary em ployees, self-employed, and unpaid family workers. Table B-12. In the input-output tables de veloped by BLS, the inputs of Commodity Credit Corporation (123) have been elimi nated from the interindustry flows. For 1963, following the treatment adopted in the Com merce department study, these inputs were then added to the Federal Government (nondefense) bill of goods. In other years, however, there was insufficient data to carry out the full adjustment. As a result the Commodity Credit Corporation columns in the transaction matrices are blank but the corresponding additions to the Federal Government bills of goods were not made. Table B-17. Table B-18. See notes for table B-16. Tables B-19 through B-21. The relative in fluences on output of changes in input-output coefficients and in final demand over time were computed by varying each factor in dependently while the other was held con stant. The difference between the total change in output and the sum of the changes due to these two factors is due to interaction between the factors and cannot be separated. TableB-13. Includes purchases by the De partment of Defense and the Atomic Energy Commission. Defense purchases are a com ponent of total Federal purchases, shown in table B-12. Table B-15. The entries in each column show purchases per dollar of gross output by the industry named at the top. Transac tions are valued at the site of production (producers’ value) and exclude transporta tion and handling charges necessary to bring the item to the purchaser. The totals shown in the table are equal to one less the value added and scrap and byproduct ad justment (see appendix A, pp. 124-151, for details) coefficients. The input to the Com modity Credit Corporation (123) has been See notes for table B-15. Table B-22. Average coefficient change was computed as follows for each subperiod: 1. 2. 3. 155 The sums of each industry’ s intermediate sales were computed for the base year. Using the base-year direct coefficient matrix and the final-year output levels (total and domestic), a second set of intermediate sales was computed and summed for each industry. The compound annual rate of growth between the two sums was then computed for each industry. Table B -l. Values of exogenous inputs to Thurow econometric model, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Projected Variable 1955 1968 1971 1972 1980 1985 200.7 8 2 .2 7 2 3.58 5 .4 1 8 5.609 2.0 9 2 3.517 3.816 20 7.0 8 6 .9 2 9 5.93 4 .656 4.741 2 .0 0 3 2.738 3.353 20 8 .8 88.991 5.59 4 .355 4 .423 2 .020 2 .403 3.450 22 4.1 1 0 1.8 09 4.00 6.259 4 .0 7 0 2.0 7 0 2.0 0 0 2.300 23 5.7 1 0 7 .7 1 6 4.00 6.622 4 .1 0 0 2 .1 0 0 2.0 0 0 1.900 2 ,3 1 4 1,982 2,293 1,946 2,2 6 7 1,950 2 ,180 1,913 2 ,127 1,883 2.65 4.72 3.38 4.94 3.14 5.15 5.04 6.50 6.59 7.42 Federal corporate profits tax r a t e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......... ....... .5 2 0 S tate and local corporate profits tax (billio n s of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.00 Federal fuel tax (c e n ts /g a llo .n. .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.00 M o tor fuel usage (billio n s of g a llo n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47.7 Private GNP d e flato r (1 9 5 8 = 1 0 0 ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 16 .528 3.15 4.0 0 82.9 1.189 .480 4.10 4.00 97.5 1.359 .480 4.9 0 4 .0 0 105.0 1.398 .480 9.06 4.00 12 5.5 1.777 .480 14.60 4 .0 0 13 8.6 2.037 Grants-in-aid (billions of 1958 d o lla r s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6 School en ro llm ent (m illio n s , C e n s u s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37.4 Interest rate, 3 month governm ent b ills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.75 Yield on 3-5 year b o n d s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.82 S tate and local governm ent net interest payment (billions of current dollars). .47 12.9 57.5 5.34 5.59 .04 16.6 59.6 4.34 5.77 - .20 20.6 59.1 4.07 5.85 -.4 0 35.0 57.8 4.0 0 5.80 .50 4 3 .3 0 4.00 6.00 .70 Subsidy less current su rp lus-Federa! (billio n s of current d o lla .rs .). . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1.5 Subsidy less current surplus -State and local (billions of current d o lla rs ) ...... -1 . 6 Privately held Federal debt (billio n s of current d o lla.rs.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 7.0 .. N um ber of households (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 7 .7 8 8 Capital grants to the U.S. (m illio n s of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 3 ) 4.1 -3 .4 2 2 8.5 6 0 .44 4 5.3 -4 .1 2 4 7.9 64.37 4 .717 6.1 -4 .4 2 6 2.5 6 6 .6 7 6 .700 7.0 -4 .5 32 0 .0 7 4 .72 8 1.0 8.0 -4 .9 3 2 0.0 8 1 .20 7 1.0 Total transfers to persons (m illio n s of current do llars). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 Personal transfers to foreigners (billions of current d o lla. r .s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Federal transfers to persons and foreigners (billions of current d o lla r s ) ....... 14.4 State and local governm ent transfers to persons (billio n s of current dollars).. 3.7 Tax rate for unem ploym ent insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .012 56.1 .8 48 .2 10.0 .015 88.9 1.0 74.9 16.6 .015 98.4 1.0 82.9 18.2 .018 180.0 .8 151.1 31 .3 .013 23 0 .3 .8 194.1 38.6 .013 Tax rate for OASDHI 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0 38 Coverage ratio, OASDHI 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .853 Wage base, O A S D H I3 (c u rre n t d o lla .rs .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,2 0 0 .. O ther Federal social insurance co ntributions (billions of current d o lla rs ) ...... 1.8 .086 .899 7,800 4.5 .104 .894 7,8 0 0 6.6 .104 .895 9,0 0 0 6.8 .117 .914 13,824 11.0 .117 .918 15,871 13.5 Population (m illio n s , Census series E ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .165.9 Labor force (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 8 .0 7 2 Unem ploym ent rate (p e rc e n t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.38 . Adjustm ent (persons to jobs) ( m i llio n.s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.032 Federal em ploym ent (m illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.741 C ivilian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1 6 Armed F o rc e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.025 Agricultural em ploym ent (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.434 Average annual hours: Agriculture (p r iv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,480 N onagriculture (p riv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 ,0 8 8 GNP per m an-hour (1 9 5 8 dollars): Agriculture (p riv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.31 Nonagriculture (p riv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.38 See footnotes at end of table. 156 (3 ) Table B -l. Values of exogenous inputs to Thurow econometric model, selected years 19 5 5 72 and projected for 1980 and 1985— Continued Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1 Projected Variable 19 55 -68 1968-72 19 72 -80 19 68 -85 19 68 -80 1980-85 0 .8 9 1.69 (2 ) 4.64 -1 .0 3 .31 -2 .2 7 -4 .9 4 0.9 5 1.59 (2 ) 1.19 - 1.83 .02 -3 .2 7 - 4 .0 2 0.92 1.79 (2 ) 1.21 -2 .6 4 - .09 -4 .5 9 -4 .1 3 1.01 1.13 (2 ) 1.13 .15 .29 0 -3 .7 5 .51 .41 -.4 9 -.2 4 -.4 9 -.3 0 4.33 2.20 6.06 2.95 5.50 2.70 .12 9.23 5.48 4.35 2.03 -2 .3 5 11.68 0 6.09 4.13 0 7.99 0 2.2 5 3.04 -.5 6 9.44 0 3.08 3.22 10.32 Grants-in-aid (billions of 1958 d o lla r.s .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.36 School enrollm ent (m illions, C en s u.s) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Interest rate, 3 month governm ent b ills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.96 9.02 Yield on 3-5 year b o n d .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . State and local governm ent net interest payment (billions of current dollars). - 1 7 . 2 6 12.41 .70 -6 .5 6 1.14 77 .83 6 85 -.2 8 -.2 2 -.1 1 2.8 3 7.38 .25 -1 .6 9 .42 18.34 8.67 .04 -2 .3 8 .31 23 .4 3 4.35 .75 0 .68 6.96 8.04 5.97 .76 1.82 (3 ) 10.44 6.66 3.53 2.48 (3 ) 1.74 .28 2.51 1.44 3.5 6 4.01 2.17 2.00 1.75 (3 ) 4.56 2.36 2.85 1.78 (3 ) 2.71 1.72 0 1.68 0 Total transfers to persons (m illions of current do llars). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.08 Personal transfers to foreigners (billions of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.68 9.74 Federal transfers to persons and foreigners (biliions of current d o lla r s ) ....... State and local governm ent transfers to persons (billions of current dollars).. 7.95 15.08 5.74 14.52 16.15 7.84 -2 .7 5 7.79 7.01 8.6 6 0.0 8.54 8.27 10.20 0.0 9.99 9.98 1.74 6.4 8 .40 4.88 7.30 4.62 4.87 -.1 1 3.64 10.87 -3 .9 9 1.48 .26 5.51 6.2 0 -.8 6 1.83 .12 4.27 6.6 8 -1 .2 0 2.60 .14 4.88 7.73 Population (m illions , Census series E.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.48 . Labor force (m illio n s. ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 7 Unem ploym ent rate (p e rc e n t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (2 ) Adjustm ent (persons to jobs) (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.30 Federal em ploym ent (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.30 C ivilian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.54 Armed F o rc e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.17 Agricultural em ploym ent (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 3 . 9 4 Average annual hours: Agriculture (p r iv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - .53 N onagriculture (p riv a te. ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 GNP per man-hour (1 9 5 8 dollars); Agriculture (p riv a te.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.57 2.6 0 Nonagriculture (p riv a te. ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal corporate profits tax r a te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. State and local corporate profits tax (b illio n s of current d o lla rs ) ................. Federal fuel tax (c e n ts /g a llo n ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . M o tor fuel usage (billions of g a llo n.s. .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Private GNP de flato r (1 9 5 8 = 1 0 0 ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Subsidy less current su rp lus-Federal (billions of current d o lla .rs. ) . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... Subsidy less current s u rp lu s-S ta te and local (billions of current d o llars) Privately held Federal debt (billions of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Num ber of households (m illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Capital grants to the U.S. (m illio n s of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. Tax rate for unem ploym ent insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tax rate for O A S D H I4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Coverage ratio, OASDHI 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wage base, O A S D H I3 (cu rre n t d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other Federal social insurance contributions (billions of current d o lla rs ) ...... 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 2 Not calculated. 0.99 1.98 (2 ) -5 .3 1 -5 .7 7 - .87 -9 .0 8 -2 .4 9 - - .50 .29 5.50 2.70 - 5.51 2.69 .79 9.20 0 3.52 3.41 0 10.01 0 2.01 2 77 3 Not applicable. 4 Old age, survivors; disability, and hospital insurance. 157 -.4 9 -.3 2 5.05 0.0 5.14 4.2 8 0 0 .09 2.8 0 4.18 Table B-2. Derivation of personal income, selected years 195 572 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Billions of current dollars — Category Projected 1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 $3 98 .0 $ 4 4 7 .3 $ 4 83 .7 $ 5 9 0 .5 $ 6 8 4 .9 $ 8 64 .2 $9 77 .1 46.9 41.1 51.7 58.9 76.1 84 .3 69 .2 80.1 31.5 32.1 11.1 2.1 38.9 38.5 14.8 1.6 41.4 41.5 17.6 - .8 52.6 54.7 26.9 -.3 59.8 63 .5 29.6 -3 .1 74 .5 78.6 47.1 -2 .7 87 .3 93 .5 57.7 - 6.4 -.6 .9 .1 .8 1.3 .7 16.1 24.1 24.9 33.0 37.2 10.1 10.5 12.1 11.6 13.6 12.6 17.6 16.5 310.9 36 1.2 38 3.5 Less: Personal tax and nontax p a ym e n ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.5 42 .3 Equals: Disposable personal income ... 275.3 . 15.8 Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal saving rate as percent of disposable personal in c o m e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 Disposable personal income per capita (c u rre n t d o ll a r s ) . 1,659.1 Disposable personal income 1,896.5 .... per capita (1 9 6 3 d o lla rs ) Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less: Corporate profits * . . . . . . . . . . . . . Capital consum ption a llo w a n c e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Indirect business ta x e .s. . . . . . . . Social insurance contributions S tatistica l dis crep a n cy. . . . . . . . . . Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of governm ent enterprises .. Governm ent transfers to persons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N et interest paid by govern m ent and consum ers . . . . . . . . . D ividends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Equals: Personal in c o m e................. . 1980 1985 $ 1 ,0 5 5 .5 $ 1 ,1 5 5 .2 $ 2 ,1 5 6 .2 $ 2 ,9 3 7 .5 91.1 2 3 2 .0 30 5 .6 93.8 102.4 64 .6 - 3.4 102.4 109.5 73.7 - 1.5 17 9.0 18 6.6 129.3 0 25 2.7 25 0 4 164.1 0 1.7 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.1 56.1 75.1 8 8 .9 9 8 .3 178.4 2 2 7 .6 20 .5 19.8 26.1 23 .6 31 .0 24.7 31 .0 25.1 32.7 26 .0 62 .5 63 .9 8 1 .0 100.4 46 5 .5 53 8 .9 6 8 8.9 8 0 8 .3 8 6 3 .5 9 3 9.2 1 ,736 .5 2 ,3 7 6 .9 46 .2 60.9 65.7 97.9 116.6 117.5 142.2 2 6 9 .3 39 7 .0 31 8 .8 33 7.3 40 4.6 4 7 3 .2 59 1.0 691.7 74 6.0 79 7.0 1,4 6 7 .2 1 ,979 .8 22 .3 19.1 19.9 28.4 39.8 56 .2 60 .2 49 .7 101.3 134.3 7.0 5.7 4.9 6.0 6.7 8.1 8.1 6.2 6.9 6.8 1,822 .9 1 ,896 .8 2 ,1 3 8 .0 2,4 3 5 .4 2 ,9 4 4 .6 3,376.1 3 ,6 0 3 .0 3,8 1 6 .4 6 .5 4 6 .5 8 ,3 9 9 .6 1 ,939 .2 1,990.7 2 ,772 .1 2 ,8 4 3 .2 2 ,9 3 2 .8 3,9 4 1 .0 4 ,4 2 7 .6 2,1 4 1 .2 2 ,3 8 0 .8 2 ,6 3 8 .7 See footnotes at end of table. 1971 1972 158 Table B-2. Derivation of personal income, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985—Continued Average annual rates of change 2 Category Projected 1955-68 1965-72 1972-80 1968-85 1968-80 1980-85 6.2 7.8 8.1 7.5 7.9 6.4 4.6 2.6 12.4 7.9 8.8 5.7 6.9 7.1 11.8 8.0 8.3 13.9 7.2 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.1 7.6 7.6 7.5 8.8 7.1 6.1 4.9 2.0 3.9 4.9 9.2 11.2 4.4 10.1 14.9 7.7 8.6 10.1 5.0 7.6 6.4 6.9 4.0 8.4 11.9 6.9 8.9 7.6 8.7 5.3 9.5 Equals: Personal in c o m e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 8.3 8.0 7.6 8.0 6.5 Less: Personal tax and nontax paym e n ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 11.7 8.3 8.6 8.8 8.1 7.9 7.4 7.9 6.2 5.8 Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less: Corporate p r o f it s 1 ........... Capital consum ption allowances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Indirect business t a x e .s . . . . . . . Social insurance contributions Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of governm ent e n te rp ris e s .. Government transfers to persons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Net interest paid by govern ment and co nsum ers. . . . . . . . . . Dividends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Equals: Disposable personal incom e.... Personal saving. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal saving rate aspercent of disposable personal in c o m e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Disposable personal income per capita (cu rre n t d o lla r s ).. Disposable personal income .... per capita (1 9 6 3 d o lla rs ) 6.1 7.7 7.4 8.3 9.3 7.4 8.1 1.3 .5 1.4 .1 .3 - .3 4.5 6.6 7.0 6.4 6.9 5.1 2.6 3.0 3.8 3.1 3.4 2.4 1 Includes inventory valuation ad justm ent. 2 Compound interest rates between term inal years. SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. Departm ent of Comm erce Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. 159 Table B-3. Demand GNP and major components, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985 Billions of current dollars co m ponent 1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 $3 9 8 .0 254.4 39.6 123.3 91.4 $ 4 47 .5 290.1 37.9 140.2 11 2.0 $ 4 8 3 .7 31 1.2 4 4 .3 14 6.6 12 0.3 $ 5 90 .5 37 5.0 53 .9 168.6 152.4 $ 6 8 4 .9 4 3 2.8 66.3 191.1 175.5 $ 8 6 4 .2 53 6 .2 84 .0 2 3 0 .8 2 2 1 .3 $ 9 77 .1 61 7 .6 91 .3 26 3 .8 2 6 2 .6 Gross private dom estic investm en t.. Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n re s id e n tia.................. l S tru c tu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producers'durable equipm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential s tru c tu re .s. . . . . . . Change in business in v e n to rie s .. 67.4 61.4 38.1 14.3 60.9 62.4 4 1 .6 16.6 75.3 70.5 45.1 16.7 87.1 81 .3 54.3 19.5 108.1 98.5 71.3 25.5 126.0 118.9 88 .8 30.3 136.3 131.7 100.6 36.1 153.2 147.1 104.4 37.9 17 8 .3 17 2.3 118.2 41 .7 33 4.6 31 5.9 23 8 .7 66 .0 4 4 5 .3 425.1 318.1 8 7 .2 23.8 23.3 6.0 25 .0 20.8 -1 .5 28.4 25.5 4.8 34.8 27.0 5.9 45 .8 27.2 9.6 58.5 30.1 7.1 64.4 31.2 4.5 66.5 42.7 6.1 76.5 54 .0 6 .0 172.7 77 .2 18.7 2 3 0 .9 10 7.0 20 .2 N et exports of goods and services.... E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 19.8 17.8 2.2 23.1 20.9 .1 23.5 23.3 5.9 32.3 26.4 6.9 39.2 32 .3 2.5 50 .6 48.1 3.6 62.9 59 .3 .8 66 .3 65.5 -4 .6 73 .5 78.1 7.8 14 6.9 139.1 9.7 20 6 .0 19 6.3 G overnm ent purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal g overnm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N ational d e fen se. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O th er. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and local g overnm ent ...... 74.2 44.1 38.6 5.5 30.1 94.2 53 .6 45 .9 7.7 40 .6 97.0 53.7 46 .0 7.6 43 .3 122.5 64.2 50.8 13.5 58.2 13 7.0 66 .9 50.1 16.8 70.1 19 9.6 98.8 78 .3 20.5 10 0.8 21 9.5 96 .2 74.6 21 .6 12 3.3 2 3 4 .3 98.1 71 .6 26 .5 136.2 2 5 5 .0 104.4 7 4 .3 30.1 15 0.5 4 9 2 .6 16 6.6 113.6 53 .0 3 2 6.0 6 9 9 .3 21 8 .5 146.8 71.7 4 8 0 .8 Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal consum ption expenditures. Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1971 1972 1980 $ 1 ,0 5 5 .6 $ 1 ,1 5 5 .2 $ 2 ,1 5 6 .2 66 7 .2 72 6.5 1 ,321 .2 117.4 103.6 191.1 51 3 .5 27 8 .7 2 9 9 .9 28 4 .9 3 0 9.2 6 1 6 .6 1985 $ 2 ,9 3 7 .5 1,783 .2 23 6.4 6 6 7 .4 8 7 9.4 Average annual rates of change 1 Projected 1972-80 1968-85 1968-80 7.8 7.7 8.5 6.7 8.4 8.1 7.8 6.3 7.0 9.0 7.5 7.3 6.3 6.5 8.5 7.9 7.8 7.1 6.9 8.9 6.4 6.2 4.4 5.4 7.4 4.9 5.2 6.7 6.0 7.4 8.3 7.5 7.3 8.2 7.9 9.2 5.9 7.7 7.8 7.8 6.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 6.7 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.7 7.2 2.0 1.3 7.6 10.3 - 6.5 10.7 4.6 15.3 8.4 7.8 6 .3 9.4 8.2 8.4 6.0 6.8 1.6 N et exports of goods and services.... E x p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 7.5 8.0 - 5.6 9.4 13.4 2 9.0 7.5 8.3 8.6 8.6 10.0 9.3 9.3 4.5 7.0 7.1 Government purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Federal governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . National defen se. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O th er. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S tate and local governm ent ...... 7.9 6.4 5.6 10.7 9.7 9.3 6.6 5.8 8.7 11.5 8.6 6.0 5.5 7.3 10.1 7.7 4.8 3.8 7.6 9.6 7.8 4.5 3.2 8.2 10.3 7.3 5.6 5.3 6.2 8.1 19 55 -68 1965-72 6.2 5.9 6.0 4.9 7.0 Gross private dom estic in v estm en t.. Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N o n re s id e n tia.................. l Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Producers' durable equipm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential s tru c tu re .s. . . . . . . Change in business in v e n to rie s .. Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal consum ption expenditures. Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S erv ice s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Compound interest rates between term inal years. 2 N ot available 1980-85 SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce, Bu Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics. 160 N o te Tables B-4 through B-18 are part of a set of tables which is available on magnetic tape for $100. The set comprises final de mand tables, a transactions matrix, a coefficients matrix, an in verse matrix, and interindustry employment tables for 1963, 1970, 1980, and 1985. For further information, write to: Ronald E. Kutscher, Chief Division of Economic Growth Bureau of Labor Statistics 441 G St., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20212 161 TABLE B-9: INDUSTRIAL COHPOSITION OF TOTAL FINAL DEBAND, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 (PRODUCERS* VALUE IN BILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE 1970 19 6 3 1980 19 8 5 PERCENT 19 7 0 DISTRIBUTION 19 8 5 1. 2. 3. N. 5. LIV ESTOCK AND LIVE STOC K PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................ AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY S E R V I C E S . . . IRON ORE B I N I N G ................................................................................... 2 ,1 9 2 7,001 391 10 72 2 ,5 3 8 7 ,2 6 7 276 -13 93 3 ,1 5 1 1 1,397 399 -2 8 300 3 ,9 5 2 1 2,7 85 97 6 -2 2 390 0 .3 3 0 .9 9 0 .0 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .2 9 0 .8 8 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE B I N I N G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS B E T A ! ORE B I N I N G .................................. COAL B I N I N G .............................................................................................. CRUDE PETROLEUH................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY B IN IN G AND QUARRYING............................. -3 292 5 19 28 27 29 56 63 2 99 95 53 98 993 99 19 0 69 119 1 ,0 5 0 96 17 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 8 0.0 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0.0 1 0 .0 7 0 .0 0 0.0 1 11. 12. 13 . 19. 15. CH EB IC AL AND F E R T I L I Z E R B I N I N G .......................................... NEH R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION....................... NEB NO NR ES ID EN TI AL B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION.............. NEB P U B LI C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION.................................. NEB HIGHBAY CONSTRUCTION.......................................................... 87 2 7,099 1 7,565 7,1 6 9 6 ,9 9 1 169 2 5,3 29 21,578 1 0,685 6 ,6 9 9 277 9 2,911 3 9,7 35 2 3,5 05 7 ,7 8 1 3 95 5 0,5 20 9 1,153 27,691 8 ,3 5 6 0 .0 2 3.2 9 2.8 1 1.3 9 0 .8 6 0.0 2 3 .5 0 2 .8 5 1.9 2 0 .5 8 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A L L OTHER NEH CONSTRUCTION..................................................... BAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION............................ GUIDED B I S S I L E S AND SPACE V EH IC LE S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS............................................................. .......................... 6 ,7 9 5 9 ,9 2 9 3 ,9 8 1 1,671 5 3,089 9 ,9 7 6 6,0 9 6 3 ,0 9 1 3,8 8 9 6 5,135 7 ,3 9 9 9 ,2 9 7 3 ,7 2 6 3 ,2 8 7 8 6,1 39 8 ,8 5 5 1 1,899 9 ,9 8 7 3 ,8 9 9 9 7,2 98 0 .6 5 0 .7 9 0 .9 0 0 .5 0 8 .9 7 0 .6 1 0 .8 2 0.3 1 0 .2 7 6 .7 3 21. 22. 23. 29. 25. TOBACCO BANUFACTURING................................................................... F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD B I L L S .......................................... MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FIOOR COVERINGS____ HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS................................................................ APPAREL.......................................................................................................... 5 ,9 7 5 1,0 0 5 1,1 9 8 ' 853 13,203 5 ,6 3 9 1,2 7 9 1,828 1 ,5 5 0 15,280 6 ,9 5 9 1 ,9 3 5 3 ,1 6 7 2 ,3 6 8 22,150 7 ,1 9 3 2,2 1 1 3 ,6 9 7 2 ,6 5 1 29,6 23 0 .7 3 0 .1 7 0 .2 9 0 .2 0 1.9 9 0 .9 9 0 .1 5 0 .2 6 0 .1 8 1.7 0 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS FABRIC ATED T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............ LOGGING, S A N H I L L S , AND PLANING H I L L S .......................... B IL L H O R K , PLYHOOD, AND OTHER HOOD P R O D U C T S . . . . HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................ OTHER FU R N IT U R E ................................................................................... 1 ,6 3 9 298 2 62 3 ,2 6 7 1 ,5 9 0 2 , 539 5 00 906 3 ,9 8 6 2 ,2 3 9 9 ,0 2 3 995 653 6,351 3 ,8 9 2 9 ,7 9 5 1 ,1 9 9 799 7 ,1 9 1 9 ,2 8 7 0 .3 3 0 .0 7 0 .0 5 0 .5 2 0 .2 9 0.3 3 0 .0 8 0 .0 5 0 .9 9 0 .3 0 31. 32. 33. 39. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD................................................................................................. P U B L I S H I N G ................................................................................................. P R I N T I N G ....................................................................................................... CHEMICAL PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 1 ,8 7 2 200 3 ,271 730 2 ,6 0 2 2 ,6 3 0 337 9 ,5 1 2 99 9 3 ,9 0 5 5 ,5 5 7 5 98 6,7 7 9 1 ,8 9 6 7 ,1 9 3 6 ,8 6 9 70 8 7 ,6 7 2 2 ,3 9 8 8 ,6 3 0 0 .3 9 0 .0 9 0 .5 9 0 .1 3 0 .5 1 0 .9 8 0 .0 5 0 .5 3 0 .1 6 0 .6 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 90. AGRICULTURAL CHE MI CA LS ................................................................ P L A S T I C MAT E RI AL S AND SYN THETIC RUBBER................... SYNT HE TIC F I B E R S ................................................................................. DRUGS............................................................................................................... CLEANING AND T O I L E T PREPARATIONS.................................... 289 9 56 176 2 ,6 2 0 3 ,7 3 0 90 2 837 191 9 ,9 8 2 6 ,5 1 9 1 ,0 9 2 1,603 2 99 9,951 12,761 1,3 5 8 1 ,9 8 6 362 1 1,899 1 6,0 65 0 .0 5 0 .1 1 0 .0 2 0 .5 8 0 .8 5 0 .0 9 0 .1 9 0 .0 3 0 .8 2 1 .1 1 91. 92. 93. 99. 95. P A I N T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS................................................................................... P L A S T I C PRODUCTS................................................................................. LEA THER, FOOTHEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 99 10,100 2 ,161 379 3,091 191 19,271 3 ,9 9 9 750 3 ,3 0 5 2 33 2 2,9 53 6 ,2 2 9 1,181 9 ,1 7 3 265 26,8 05 7 ,5 6 2 1 ,9 0 7 9 ,6 2 9 0 .0 2 1.8 6 0 .9 5 0 .1 0 0 .9 3 0 .0 2 1.8 5 0 .5 2 0 .1 0 0 .3 2 96. 97. 98. 99. 50. GLA SS ............................................................................................................... CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................ MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND BASI C STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... 99 8 99 9 02 596 57 58 9 81 57 9 1 ,1 6 3 139 821 129 86 8 2 ,2 9 9 299 99 3 191 1,0 0 0 2 ,8 0 2 38 6 0 .0 8 0.0 1 0 .0 7 0 .1 5 0 .0 2 0 .0 7 0 .0 1 0 .0 7 0 .1 9 0 .0 3 51. 52. 53. 59. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS................................................................... PRIBARY A L U B I N U H ................................................................................. OTHER PRIBARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS B E T A ! . . COPPER ROL LING AND DRAHING..................................................... ALUMINUM RO L LI NG AND D RA B IN G ............................................... 210 79 70 28 132 202 197 291 53 239 381 38 6 608 89 305 9 20 501 71 6 92 339 0 .0 3 0 .0 3 0 .0 9 0 .0 1 0 .0 3 0.0 3 0.0 3 0 .0 5 0.0 1 0 .0 2 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROL LING AND DRAHING.......................... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS BETAL PRODUCTS................. METAL CON TA INE RS ................................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S ................. FABR ICAT ED STRUCTURAL B E T A L .................................................. 88 35 69 131 889 187 57 80 139 1 ,3 5 9 395 102 117 238 2 ,2 8 2 9 52 118 122 2 89 2 ,5 7 9 0 .0 2 0.0 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 2 0 .1 8 0.0 3 0.0 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 2 0 .1 8 61. 62. 63. 69. 65. SCREH MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER FABRIC ATED BETAL PRODUCTS....................................... E NGIN ES, T U R B I N E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARM MACHINERY...................................................................................... CONSTRUCTION, B I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D M A CH IN E RY .. 90 9 1 ,2 2 2 1 ,022 2 ,2 7 0 2 ,8 8 6 67 0 1,8 6 5 1 ,7 1 9 3 ,9 8 2 3 ,9 8 3 99 8 3 ,1 9 9 3 ,9 8 5 5 ,6 3 0 6 ,5 1 6 1 ,1 2 9 3,8 2 8 9 ,3 0 8 6 ,5 5 6 7 ,9 3 9 0 .0 9 0 .2 9 0 .2 2 0 .9 5 0 .5 2 0 .0 8 0 .2 6 0 .3 0 0 .9 5 0 .5 1 66. 67. 68. MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT.................................................. HETALHORKING MACHINERY................................................................ SPE CIA L INDUSTRY MACHINERY..................................................... 89 9 2 ,3 3 9 2 ,6 5 5 1,298 3 ,0 3 3 3 ,9 6 6 2 ,2 3 3 9 ,7 2 8 5,9 6 9 2 ,9 7 9 5,3 1 1 5 ,8 7 9 0 .1 6 0 .3 9 0 .9 5 0 .2 1 0 .3 7 0 .9 1 16 2 TABT E B-4: INDUSTRIAL CWffOSlTIGN OF TOTSL FI BA L DEMAND, 1963, 1 9 7 0 , AND PROJECTED 19 8 0 AND 1 9 8 5 - - C O N I I N U E D t«0Df?CE?,S' VALUE IN BILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE 19 6 3 19 7 0 19 8 0 1-985 PERCENT 1970 DISTRIBUTION 19 8 5 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PEODDCTS................................................................... COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT............................... TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O F F IC B MACHINES....................... SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................ 2 ,0 5 5 1 09 1 ,9 9 4 625 1 ,8 2 9 2 ,5 9 6 201 5 ,2 6 4 1 ,0 8 9 3 ,1 4 7 4,1 8 7 364 1 5,687 2 ,4 7 3 5 ,8 3 9 5 ,0 6 6 4 32 21,5 43 3 ,0 9 7 6 ,9 4 3 0 .3 4 0 .0 3 0 .6 8 0 .1 4 0 .4 1 0 .3 5 0 .0 3 1 .4 9 0 .2 1 0 .4 8 79. 75. 76. 77. 78. E LEC TR IC TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT....................................... ELE CT R IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ...................................................................... ELE CT RIC L IG H T I N G AND H I R I N G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ETS........................................................ 1 ,7 0 5 1 ,0 2 9 3,281 65 3 2 ,4 4 2 1 ,8 7 2 1,257 5,3 4 3 1,0 6 8 5 ,2 7 9 3 ,3 6 6 2,5 8 5 8 ,5 0 2 1,937 9,3 4 2 4 ,2 4 0 3 ,0 9 1 1 0,3 06 2 ,3 6 9 11,303 0.2 4 0 .1 6 0 .6 9 0 .1 4 0 .6 9 0 .2 9 0 .2 1 0 .7 1 0.1 6 0 .7 8 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELECTRONIC CCMMUNICATICN EQUIPMENT.............. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER E L E CT R IC AL MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S .............. ....................................................................... 1 ,0 6 3 5 ,8 2 8 865 79 3 24,357 2 ,0 0 7 6 ,7 8 0 1 ,8 3 3 1 ,3 0 8 29,309 3,861 11,189 3,5 6 2 2 ,4 5 5 5 8,2 75 4 ,6 0 0 1 3,623 4 ,5 7 4 3 ,0 5 1 6 6,147 0 .2 6 0 .8 8 0.2 4 0.1 7 3 .8 1 0 .3 2 0 .9 4 0 .3 2 0 .2 1 4 .5 8 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A FT ....................................................................................................... SH IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND B E P A I R .................................. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT___ MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.................... S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................... 9 ,2 2 6 1 ,667 1 ,292 8 52 1 ,4 1 7 11,604 1 ,8 5 3 2 ,221 2 ,6 4 6 1 ,9 3 2 16,783 5 ,0 0 9 4 ,4 8 3 7 ,1 0 7 2,801 1 9,8 07 4 ,9 4 0 4 ,9 6 9 8 ,4 8 4 3 ,2 2 8 1 .5 1 0.2 4 0 .2 9 0 .3 4 0 .2 5 1.3 7 0 .3 4 0.3 4 0 .5 9 0.2 2 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRU ME NT S.......................................... OPT ICAL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION............................................................. 610 42 9 89 8 4 , 170 3 ,3 7 0 994 761 2 ,0 2 5 6 ,6 1 0 4 ,3 9 7 2,2 9 3 1 ,307 4,7 1 7 10,351 7 ,2 1 5 2 ,8 7 2 1,5 6 7 6 ,3 7 7 1 2,455 8 ,3 0 8 0 .1 3 0 .1 0 0.2 6 0 .8 6 0 .5 7 0.2 0 0 .1 1 0.4 4 0 .8 6 0.5 7 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL TR A NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPORTATION...................................................................... HATER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... A I R TRANSPORTATION........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... 2 ,6 4 6 4 ,3 3 2 2 ,4 2 7 2 ,1 9 1 395 2 ,7 7 9 5,3 9 3 3 ,7 9 7 4,9 7 2 593 3 ,1 2 0 8 ,7 3 8 6 ,1 1 3 10,597 1,004 3 ,2 2 9 10,251 7 ,3 9 5 13,412 1,2 1 9 0 .3 6 0 .7 0 0 .4 9 0.6 5 0 .0 8 0.2 2 0 .7 1 0 .5 1 0.9 3 0 .0 8 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND TV ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING....................................................... E LE CTR IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... HATER AND SANITARY S E R V IC E S .................................................. 6 ,7 5 5 45 7 ,0 6 5 3 ,991 1,456 1 2,416 74 11,436 5 ,2 9 0 1 ,7 7 2 2 5,858 140 19,741 7,9 3 9 1,819 3 3,921 158 23,8 79 9 ,3 9 4 1 ,8 4 7 1.61 0 .0 1 1 .4 9 0 .6 9 0 .2 3 2 .3 5 0 .0 1 1 .6 5 0 .6 5 0 .1 3 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE TEADE................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE........................................................................................... PIN AN CE ......................................................................................................... INSURANCE.................................................................................................... OHNER-OCCUPIED DW ELLINGS........................................................... 2 5,775 62,8 05 9,071 8 ,1 5 0 3 8,7 26 37,558 85,212 1 2,359 10,801 5 2,672 61,519 133,351 21,974 17,470 83,382 72,3 90 154,410 26,3 48 20,6 60 1 03 ,247 4 .8 8 11.0 8 1.6 1 1.4 0 6 .8 5 5 .0 1 10.68 1.8 2 1 .4 3 7.1 4 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. OTHER REAL E ST A TE .............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING PLA CE S........................................................ OTHER PERSONAL SER VI CE S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R V I C E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS I N G .............................................................................................. 1 7,4 15 2 ,5 8 5 1 0,022 2,8 9 0 169 25,807 3 ,7 7 2 11,183 4 , 199 31 3 4 3,3 56 6,0 0 3 15,454 7,9 6 2 6 99 53,6 27 7 ,4 9 0 17,137 10,053 900 3 .3 5 0.4 9 1.4 5 0 .5 5 0 .0 4 3 .7 1 0.5 2 1 .1 9 0 .7 0 0 .0 6 114. 115. 116. 117. 118. MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VI CE S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R .............................................................................. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 3 ,0 4 9 6 ,8 1 3 1 ,3 2 4 3,7 6 3 1 1,497 3,811 8 ,1 3 5 1 ,0 9 5 4 ,2 0 5 15,654 5 ,9 1 3 11,881 1 ,1 1 8 6,4 1 0 2 8,0 00 6 ,9 6 3 1 3,2 89 1 ,0 6 3 7 ,3 0 8 3 3,6 99 0 .5 0 1.0 6 0.1 4 0 .5 5 2.0 4 0.4 8 0 .9 2 0 .0 7 0.5 1 2.3 3 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIONAL S E R V IC E S ...................................................................... ORG AN IZ AT IO NS ............................................................. POST O F F I C E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY C B E DI T COFPOFATION............................................... 7 ,0 3 4 5 ,2 8 5 7 ,6 8 9 1 ,2 0 3 0 11,404 7 ,2 6 2 10,154 1 ,7 0 3 0 2 2,4 10 1 1,136 15,386 2,9 7 8 0 29,3 73 13,360 1 8,250 3 ,5 9 3 0 1.4 8 0 .9 4 1.3 2 0 .2 2 0 .0 0 2.0 3 0.9 2 1.2 6 0 .2 5 0 .0 0 124. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL E NT ER PR ISE S........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E NTE RP RI SES .................... DIR EC TL Y ALLOCATED IM FO RT S ..................................................... TRANSFERRED IMP O RT S ........................................................................ BUSINESS TRA VEL , EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............ 73 857 -3 ,4 7 8 -1 4 ,3 1 8 0 97 1 ,4 2 4 -3 ,8 7 3 -2 7 ,9 0 3 0 139 2 ,3 6 6 -8 ,5 4 7 -5 5 ,1 9 6 0 151 2 ,8 9 4 -8 ,7 9 6 -7 6 ,6 0 0 0 0 .0 1 0 .1 9 -0 .50 -3 .63 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0.2 0 -0.61 -5 .3 0 0.0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O FFI CE S U P P L I E S ................................................................................... SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.................................... GOVERNMENT I N D U S T R Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IND US TR Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 3 85 -2 8 6 5 5,030 4 ,1 8 5 3 ,8 2 3 7 97 -3 1 0 69,140 6 ,5 5 4 3 ,1 9 6 1 ,725 153 8 2,6 85 1 5,400 2 ,6 8 4 2 ,1 4 3 181 91,481 23,1 50 2 ,3 2 1 0 .1 0 -0 .0 4 8 .9 9 0 .8 5 0.4 2 0 .1 5 0 .0 1 6 .3 3 1 .6 0 0 .1 6 134. INVENTORY VAL UATION ADJUSTMENT.......................................... T O TA L ............................................................................................................... -5 0 2 5 91,912 -4 ,3 1 6 7 69,224 -1 ,0 1 7 ,2 2 7 ,8 0 0 -980 1,4 4 5 ,4 0 0 -0 .56 100 .00 -0 .0 7 100.00 NONPROFIT 16 3 TABLE B-5: INDUSTRIAL COHPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1990 AND 1985 (PRODUCERS* VALUE IN HIILIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRX CODE 19 6 3 1 97 0 19 8 0 1985 PERCENT D I S T R I B U T I O N 1970 198 5 1. 2. 3. 1*. 5. LIVESTOCK AND LIV ESTOCK PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRI AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................ AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FI SH ER Y S E R V I C E S . . . IRON ORE H I N I N G ................................................................................... 1,762 2 ,8 6 7 419 15 0 1 ,7 6 5 3 ,0 5 3 553 24 0 2 ,1 6 9 4 ,189 7 39 46 0 2 ,4 5 5 4 ,8 5 4 849 58 0 0 .3 5 0.6 1 0.1 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.2 6 0.5 1 0 .0 9 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE H I N I N G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G .................................. COAL H I N I N G ............................................................................................... CRUDE PETROLEUM................................................................................... STONE AND CL a T H I N I N G AND QUARRYING............................ 0 0 16 5 0 15 0 0 157 0 17 0 0 108 0 33 0 0 39 0 40 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. CHEHIC AL AND F E R T I L I Z E R H I N I N G .......................................... NEH R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION....................... NEW N O NR E S ID E NT IA L B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION.............. NEH P U B L I C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION.................................. NEH HIGHHAY CONSTRUCTION.......................................................... 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 16. 17. 18. 19 . 20. ALL OTHER NEH CONSTRUCTION..................................................... MAINTENANCE AND RE P AI R CONSTRUCTION............................ GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................ .. OTHER ORDNANCE................................................................................... .. FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... 0 0 0 1 81 4 9 ,5 18 0 0 0 2 67 59,650 0 0 0 483 7 8,470 0 0 0 59 9 88,5 36 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 1 1.8 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 6 9 .3 7 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING................................................................... F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD H I L L S .......................................... MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R I N G S . . . . HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS................................................................ APPA RE L................................................................... ..................................... 4,941 609 1,011 821 12,716 5 ,0 7 4 81 0 1 ,5 0 6 1 ,4 7 9 14,520 6 ,2 3 6 1 ,2 0 8 2,5 8 6 2 ,2 2 7 2 0,7 43 6 ,3 6 7 1 ,3 6 8 2 ,9 9 1 2 ,4 6 6 2 2,9 46 1 .0 1 0.1 6 0 .3 0 0 .2 9 2 .8 8 0 .6 7 0 .1 4 0 .3 2 0 .2 6 2 .4 3 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS FA BRICATED T E X T I L E PRODUCTS............ LOGGING, S A H H I L L S , AND PLANING H I L L S .......................... H I L LH O R K , PLYHOCD, AND OTHER HOOD P R O D U C T S . . . . HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................ OTHER F U R N IT U R E ................................................................................... 1,482 62 168 3,0 2 4 133 2 ,3 2 7 66 251 3 ,6 1 6 201 3 ,6 6 8 60 4 05 5 ,8 0 9 3 43 4 ,3 7 6 59 467 6 ,5 5 8 3 96 0 .4 6 0 .0 1 0 .0 5 0 .7 2 0 .0 4 0 .4 6 0 .0 1 0 .0 5 0 .6 9 0 .0 4 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD................................................................................................. P U B L I S H I N G ................................................................................................. P R I N T I N G ....................................................................................................... CHEHICAL PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 1,241 74 2 ,7 3 5 424 3 50 1 ,5 0 9 105 3 ,5 3 8 517 540 2 ,9 1 7 207 5 ,1 4 8 1 .0 7 0 9 25 3 ,5 0 2 248 5 ,9 4 9 1,2 8 3 1 ,1 1 2 0 .3 0 0 .0 2 0 .7 0 0 .1 0 0.1 1 0.3 7 0.0 3 0 .6 3 0.1 4 0 .1 2 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. AGRICULTURAL CH E MI CA L S ................................................................ P LA S TI C MAT ER IAL S AND SYN THETIC RUBBER.............. SYNTHETIC F I B E R S ................................................................................. DRUGS............................................................................................................... CLEANING AND T O I L E T PR EPARATIONS .................................... 45 12 0 1 ,9 8 2 3,4 1 4 0 19 0 3 ,2 8 9 5 ,8 9 6 1 14 28 0 5,8 9 4 1 1,419 136 34 0 7 ,4 0 6 1 4,4 97 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .6 5 1.1 7 0.0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .7 8 1 .5 3 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. P A I N T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS................................................................................... P LA S TI C PRODUCTS................................................................................. LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 23 8 ,2 2 8 1 ,7 0 5 158 3 ,0 2 2 19 11,341 2 ,8 7 2 4 22 3 ,2 7 3 38 17,516 5,3 8 6 5 37 4,1 0 4 45 21,1 49 6 ,5 8 3 620 4 ,5 2 0 0 .0 0 2 .2 5 0.5 7 0 .0 8 0 .6 5 0 .0 0 2.2 4 0 .7 0 0 .0 7 0 .4 8 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. GLA SS ............................................................................................................... CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................ MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND BAS IC STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... 23 8 2 215 9 0 235 3 276 16 0 241 5 368 25 0 279 6 422 28 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 4 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS................................................................... PRIMARY ALUMINUM................................................................................ OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L . . COPPER ROL LING AND DRAWING..................................................... ALUMINUM ROL LING AND DRAWING............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING......................... MISCELLANEOUS NCNFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS................. METAL CO NTA INE RS ................................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S ................. FABRICATED STRUCTURAL ME TAL.................................................. 3 9 0 73 15 3 12 0 55 23 4 9 0 88 39 5 11 0 107 45 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0.0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.0 1 0 .0 0 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER FABRIC ATED METAL PRODUCTS....................................... E NG IN ES , T U R B I N E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARM MACHINERY...................................................................................... CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MA CH IN E RY .. 26 6 571 125 10 0 260 828 22 9 16 0 226 1 ,3 8 7 505 28 0 264 1 ,6 9 9 63 3 32 0 0 .0 5 0 .1 6 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .1 8 0 .0 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 66. 67. 68. MAT ERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT.................................................. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY..................................................... 0 77 21 0 117 24 0 201 41 0 231 47 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 16 4 T*»ie e-5« tSOfl'STMAL COfiPGSlTtON OF PNRSONAL COfl-5T)"(lPTIOH E I P E S M W F S S , (PRODUCERS' VALBE IN Buttons OF 1963 DOLL AES) INDUSTRY CODE 1963, 1970, AMD PROJECTED T9S0 AMD 1985 — CONTINUED 19 6 3 1970 198 0 1985 PERCENT 197 0 DISTRIBUTION 19 8 5 69 . 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MAC HINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT............................... TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES....................... SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................ 0 2 0 88 336 0 0 0 190 5 76 0 0 0 290 9 69 0 0 0 276 1 ,1 7 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0.1 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.0 3 0 .1 2 79. 75. 76. 77. 78. ELE CTR IC TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT....................................... E LEC T R IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................... HOUSEHOLD A PP L IA N C E S ...................................................................... ELECT RIC L IG H T I N G AND H I R I N G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ETS ........................................................ 8 19 2 ,7 9 2 922 2 ,0 2 0 0 21 9 ,6 3 3 589 9 ,6 1 5 0 37 7 ,3 3 2 1 ,038 8,1 5 3 0 92 8 ,9 9 1 1 ,2 3 3 9 ,9 1 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .9 2 0 .1 2 0 .9 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .9 5 0.1 3 1.0 5 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT.............. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER ELE CT R IC AL MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... 0 61 176 3 69 15,377 0 131 396 612 17,589 0 231 693 1,109 33,539 0 280 891 1 ,3 7 5 37,5 97 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 8 0 .1 2 3 .9 9 0 .0 0 0.0 3 0 .0 9 0 .1 5 3 .9 8 89. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A F T ....................................................................................................... S H I P AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R .................................. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . . MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.................... S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................... 99 192 16 0 627 270 90 292 396 2 ,0 1 9 996 20 0 6 99 76 3 5 ,8 2 5 628 25 0 807 9 56 6 .8 1 9 793 0 .0 2 0 .0 6 0 .0 7 0 .9 0 0 .0 9 0 .0 3 0 .0 9 0 .1 0 0 .7 2 0 .0 8 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUMENTS ......................................... OPT ICAL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION............................................................. 132 236 396 3 ,2 9 8 2,0 2 9 169 35 2 619 5 ,1 0 0 2 ,3 8 0 2 25 593 1,116 7 ,8 9 6 3 ,8 0 6 27 9 62 9 1,3 8 8 9 ,5 3 1 9 ,3 6 7 0 .0 3 0 .0 7 0 .1 2 1.0 1 0 .9 7 0 .0 3 0 .0 7 0 .1 5 1 .0 1 0 .9 6 99. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL TR A NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... HATER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... A IR T RANSPORTATION........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION ..................................................................... 2 ,2 7 2 2 ,9 2 3 595 1 ,2 8 6 22 8 1 ,9 7 2 3 ,0 7 8 961 3,>012 329 2,0 9 1 9,7 6 6 1 ,8 7 1 6 ,3 7 9 50 9 2 ,0 6 2 5 ,5 3 0 2 ,1 9 9 8 ,2 2 1 611 0 .3 9 0 .6 1 0 .1 9 0 .6 0 0 .0 6 0 .2 2 0 .5 9 0 .2 3 0 .8 7 0 .0 6 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................ ELE CTR IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... HATER AND SANITARY S E R V IC E S .................................................. 5 ,5 9 0 0 6 ,0 5 3 3,7 9 9 1 ,5 0 2 9 ,8 5 9 0 9 ,9 0 3 9 ,8 9 2 1 ,7 9 0 20,093 0 15,919 7 ,0 2 3 2 ,1 7 9 26,7 36 0 1 8,650 8 ,3 1 5 2 ,2 9 8 1.9 5 0 .0 0 1 .8 7 0 .9 6 0 .3 6 2.8 3 0 .0 0 1.9 7 0.8 8 0 .2 9 109. 105. 106. 107. 108. HHOLESALE TRADE ................................................................................... R E T A I L TRADE............................................................................................ F I N A N C E ......................................................................................................... INSURANCE ................................. ................................................................. OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS .......................................................... 2 0,0 29 6 0,6 75 8 ,9 2 9 7 ,9 9 9 38,7 26 27,613 8 1,969 12,060 10,363 52,672 9 9,7 50 127,550 21,121 1 6,550 83,382 52,3 28 197,893 2 5,2 79 1 9,9 73 1 03,297 5 .9 8 16.26 2 .3 9 2 .0 6 10.9 5 5 .5 9 15.65 2 .6 8 2.0 6 10.93 109. OTHER REAL E ST A TE .............................................................................. 111. 112. 1 13. OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI C E S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E B V I C E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS I N G .............................................................................................. 1 5,1 30 1 ,8 8 3 9 ,9 5 7 9 77 120 22,698 2,661 1 0,988 1,072 206 37,216 9,0 9 3 1 9,853 1 ,8 9 0 907 9 5,9 25 9 ,8 7 9 1 6,3 39 2 ,2 6 9 991 9 .9 9 0 .5 3 2 .1 8 0.2 1 0 .0 9 9 .8 6 0 .5 2 1 .7 3 0 .2 9 0 .0 5 119. 115. 1 16 . 117. 118. MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL SER VIC ES ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R .............................................................................. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 2 ,3 7 0 6 ,6 9 2 9 92 3 ,6 7 9 1 0,9 98 2 ,7 8 2 7 ,8 8 3 689 9,1 9 6 19,669 3,721 11,293 592 6 ,2 9 8 2 5,5 95 9 ,1 2 0 1 2,9 86 521 7 ,0 7 9 30,5 89 0 .5 5 1.5 6 0 .1 9 0 .8 2 2.9 1 0 .9 9 1.3 2 0.0 6 0 .7 5 3 .2 9 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. H O S PI TA L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIONAL S E R V IC E S ..................................................................... NONPROFIT O RG AN IZ AT IO NS ............................................................. POST O P P IC E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY CR ED IT CORPORATION............................................... 6 ,6 8 6 9 ,9 1 9 7 . 239 882 0 10,737 6 ,5 2 8 9,531 1 ,1 2 0 0 2 0,5 95 9,5 9 6 1 9,905 1 ,7 2 1 0 2 6 ,9 86 1 1,3 00 1 7,0 99 1,9 8 9 0 2 .1 3 1.2 9 1.8 9 0 .2 2 0 .0 0 2.8 6 1 .2 C 1.8 1 0.2 1 0.0 0 129. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL ENTE RP RISE S........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ENTE RP RISE S .................... DIR E CT LY ALLOCATED IMP ORT S..................................................... TRANSFERRED IMP O RT S ........................................................................ BDSINESS T RA V EL , EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............ 6 638 6,0 0 3 0 0 0 92 8 1 2,779 0 0 0 1,3 9 7 27,399 0 0 0 1 ,62 0 3 2,3 96 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 8 2 .5 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 7 3 .9 2 0.0 0 0.0 0 129. 1 30. 131. 132. 133. O FFI CE S U P P L I E S ................................................................................... SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS..................................... GOVERNMENT I N DU S TR Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IND US TR Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 0 -291 0 0 3 ,8 2 2 0 -2 2 3 0 0 3 ,1 9 9 0 -232 0 0 2 ,6 8 9 0 -312 0 0 2 ,3 2 1 0 .0 0 -0 .0 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .6 3 0 .0 0 -0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .2 5 139. INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.......................................... T O TA L ............................................................................................................... 0 3 75 ,59 5 0 5 09,119 0 7 99,710 0 9 99 ,56 0 0 .0 0 100 .00 0 .0 0 100.00 1 1 0 . HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................ 165 TABLE B-6: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES FOR DURABLE GOODS, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 (PRODUCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS CF 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE 196 3 1. 2. 3. 9. 5. LIVESTOCK AND LIV ESTOCK PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................ AGR ICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHER Y S E R V I C E S . . . IRON ORE M I N I N G ................................................................................... 0 C 6. 7. 8. 9. 10 . 1970 1980 1985 PERCENT 1970 DISTRIBUTION 198 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 c 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 COPPER ORE M I N I N G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G ................................. . COAL M I N I N G .............................................................................................. CRUDE PETROLEUM................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY MININ G AND QUARRYING............................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 11. 12. 13. 1<t. 15 . CHEMICAL AND F E R T I L I Z E R M I N I N G .......................................... NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION...................... NEW NO NR E S ID E NT IA L B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION.............. NEW P U B L I C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION................................. NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION.......................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.0 0 0 .0 0 16. 17. 18 . 19. 20. ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION..................................................... MAINTENANCE AND RE PAI R CONSTRUCTION............................ GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... 0 0 0 76 0 0 0 0 119 0 0 0 0 262 0 0 0 0 32 8 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.1 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.1 9 0 .0 0 21. 22. 23. 29. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING................................................................... F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD M I L 1 S .......................................... MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R I N G S . . . . HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS................................................................ APPAREL......................................................................................................... 0 96 959 0 -1 0 56 1,951 0 0 0 95 2 ,9 8 5 0 0 0 110 2 ,8 7 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 .0 7 1 .80 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 6 1.6 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED T E X T I L E PRODUCTS............ LOGGING, SA W MI LLS , AND PLA NING M I L L S ......................... MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S . . . . HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................ OTHER FU R N IT U R E ................................................................................... 21 9 0 168 3 ,0 2 9 133 355 0 251 3 ,6 1 6 201 6 56 0 905 5 ,8 0 9 3 93 79 3 0 967 6 ,5 5 8 396 0 .9 9 0 .0 0 0.3 1 9 .9 9 0 .2 5 0 .9 7 0.0 0 0 .2 7 3 .8 5 0 .2 3 31. 32. 33. 39. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD................................................................................................. P U B L I S H I N G ................................................................................................. P R I N T I N G ....................................................................................................... CHEMICAL PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 0 0 93 6 27 89 0 0 1 ,9 0 9 92 153 0 0 2 ,2 7 9 71 285 0 0 2,731 82 357 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1.7 9 0 .0 5 0 .1 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 .6 0 0 .0 5 0 .2 1 36. 37. 38. 39. 90. AGRICULTURAL CHE MI CA LS ................................................................ P LA S TI C MAT ER IAL S AAD SYN THETIC RUBBER.................... SYNTHETIC F I B E R S ................................................................................ DRUGS............................................................................................................... CLEANING AND T O I L E T PRE PARA TIO NS .................................... 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 92 0 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 0 97 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.0 6 91. 92. 93. 99. 95. P A I N T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS................................................................................... P L A S T I C PRODUCTS................................................................................ LEA THER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 0 0 1 ,2 6 1 191 65 0 0 2 ,3 1 2 39 5 1 05 0 0 9 ,3 3 6 502 199 0 0 5 ,9 1 2 58 2 236 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 2 .8 7 0 .9 9 0 .1 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 3 .1 8 0 .3 9 0 .1 9 96. 97. 98. 99. 50. GLAS S............................................................................................................... CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................ MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND B AS IC STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... 228 2 112 0 0 22 0 3 157 0 0 21 7 5 178 0 0 251 6 20 5 0 0 0 .2 7 0 .0 0 0 .2 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 5 0 .0 0 0.1 2 0.0 0 0 .0 0 51. 52. 53. 59. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS................................................................... PRIMARY ALUMINUM................................................................................ OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L . . COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING..................................................... ALUMINUM ROL LING AND DRAWING............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0.0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING......................... MISCELLANEOUS NCNFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS................. METAL CONTA INE RS ................................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S ................. FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL.................................................. 3 9 0 73 15 3 12 0 55 23 9 9 0 88 39 5 11 0 107 95 0 .0 0 0.0 1 0 .0 0 0.0 7 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 6 0 .0 3 61. 62. 63. 69. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS....................................... EN G IN ES , T U R B I N E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARH MACHINERY...................................................................................... CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MA CH IN E RY .. 292 3 36 125 10 0 22 3 5 12 229 16 0 168 785 50 5 28 0 195 918 633 32 0 0 .2 8 0 .6 9 0 .2 8 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .1 1 0 .5 9 0 .3 7 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 66. 67. 68. MAT ER IAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT.................................................. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY..................................................... 0 77 21 0 117 29 0 201 91 0 231 97 0 .0 0 0.1 5 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0.1 9 0 03 \J 166 T iB L E 8 - 6 : IN D U S T R IA L CO M PO SITIO N OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 1 9 6 .4 , t 9 7 0 AND PT5TTJECTEIL. 1 9& 0 A N il t » 8 NtTEC"' ' “ (^ftO DUCreSS*: VALUE- I N MT1 T.TONS OF D X IL i*5 9 + FOR ftHSABLi GP.OOS, — IN D U S TR Y CODE 1963 1970 198 0 1985 PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L M ACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS.................................................................. COMPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L EQUIPM ENT............................... TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES....................... SER VIC E INDUSTRY M A CHINE S ....................................................... 0 2 0 88 336 0 0 0 1 40 5 76 0 0 0 240 964 0 0 0 2 76 1 ,1 7 4 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 7 0 .7 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 6 0 .6 9 74. 75. 75. 77. 78. E LE C TR IC TR A N S M IS S IO N EQ U IP M E N T...................................... E L E C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L A PFARATDS...................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ..................................................................... E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND S IR IN G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ....................................................... 0 14 2 ,6 1 1 207 2 ,0 2 0 0 21 4 ,3 6 8 322 4 ,6 1 5 0 37 6 ,8 5 6 5 60 8 ,1 5 3 0 42 8 ,3 1 6 656 9 ,9 1 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 5 .4 3 0 .4 0 5 .7 3 C .0 0 0 .0 2 4 .8 8 0 .3 9 5 .8 2 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELE C TR O N IC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT.............. E LECTR O N IC COMPONENTS.................................................................. OTHER E L E C T R IC A L MACHINERY.................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ..................................................................................... 0 61 1 76 317 1 5 ,3 7 7 0 131 396 552 1 7 ,5 8 4 0 231 693 1 ,0 0 1 3 3 ,5 3 4 0 280 8 41 1 ,2 4 5 3 7 ,5 9 7 0 .0 0 0 .1 6 0 .4 9 0 .6 9 2 1 .8 5 0 .0 0 0 .1 6 0 .4 9 0 .7 3 2 2 .0 8 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A F T ...................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT E U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR ................................. RAILR OAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ... MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPM ENT................... S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS.................... 49 192 1 60 627 2 63 90 292 346 2 ,0 1 4 4 41 200 644 763 5 ,8 2 5 618 250 8 07 956 6 ,8 1 4 731 0 .1 1 0 .3 6 0 .4 3 2 .5 0 0 .5 5 0 . 15 0 .4 7 0 .5 6 4 .0 0 0 .4 3 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S T R U M E N T S ....................................... O P T IC A L AND O PHTHALM IC EQ U IPM ENT.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ R A ILR O A D TRA N S P O R TATIO N ............................................................. 53 236 142 1 ,7 7 6 419 64 352 263 2 .8 1 1 639 88 5 43 579 4 ,4 0 4 1 ,1 6 4 102 62 9 667 5 ,3 2 8 1 ,3 5 7 0 .0 8 0 .4 4 0 .3 3 3 .4 9 0 .7 9 0 .0 6 0 .3 7 0 .3 9 3 .1 3 0 .8 0 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y EDS....................................... TRUCK TR A N S P O R TATIO N ..................................................................... WATER TR A N S P O R TATIO N ..................................................................... A IR TR A N S P O R TATIO N .......................................................................... OTHER TRA NS P O R TATIO N.................................................................... C 456 52 11 8 0 693 125 18 9 0 1 ,2 7 3 313 45 14 0 1 ,4 8 2 354 57 17 0 .0 0 0 .8 6 0 .1 6 0 .0 2 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .8 7 0 .2 1 0 .0 3 0 .0 1 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. C O M M UNICA TIO N S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BRO ADCASTING ....................................................... E LE C TR IC U T I L I T I E S .......................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................................ WATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S ................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE TR A D E ................................................................................... R E T A IL TR A D E ........................................................................................... F IN A N C E ......................................................................................................... IN S U R A N C E ................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED D W ELLIN G S .......................................................... 2 ,9 5 2 1 5 ,0 3 8 0 3 0 5 ,0 7 5 2 2 ,5 8 2 0 10 0 9 ,3 7 4 3 8 ,9 6 0 0 29 0 1 1 ,0 8 4 4 5 ,5 2 3 0 32 0 6 .3 1 2 8 .0 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 6 .5 1 2 6 .7 4 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. OTHER REAL E S T A T E ............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING P LACES....................................................... OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................ MISCELLANEOUS BUS IN ES S S ER VIC E 'S ...................................... A D V E R T IS IN G .............................................................................................. 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 114. 115. 116. 1 17. 1 18. MISCELLANEOUS PRO FESSIO N AL S E R V IC E S ............................ AUTO MO BILE R E P A IR ............................................................................. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHEB AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH S ER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. H O S P IT A L S ............................................. .......................................... .. NO NPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S ............................................................. POST O F F IC E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY C R E D IT CORPORATION............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 -0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 124. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ....................................................... STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R ISE S .................... D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS .................................................... TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ....................................................................... BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............ 0 0 905 0 0 0 0 3 ,9 7 8 0 0 0 0 8 ,6 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 ,1 7 2 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 4 .9 4 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 5 .9 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ................................................................................... SCRAP, DSED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.................................... GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ....................................................................... REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 0 -1 4 0 0 0 0 0 -1 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 1 8 0 0 0 0 -1 5 3 0 0 0 0 .0 0 -0 .1 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 -0 .0 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 134. INVENTORY V A LD A TIO N ADJUSTMENT......................................... T O T A L ............................................................................................................... 0 5 2 ,8 2 0 0 8 0 ,4 8 1 0 1 4 5 ,7 2 1 0 1 7 0 ,2 5 7 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 EDUCATIONAL S E R V I C E S ..................................................................................... 0 16 7 TABLE B-7: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES FOR NONDURABLE GOODS, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 (PRODUCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS CF 1963 DOLLARS) 1963 IN D U S TR Y CODE 1970 1980 1985 PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LIV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER AGR IC U LTU R A L PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................ A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RESTRY, AND FIS H ER Y S E R V IC E S ... IR O N ORE M IN IN G ................................................................................... 1 ,6 4 9 2 ,8 6 7 419 15 0 1 ,5 9 1 3 ,0 5 3 5 53 24 0 1 ,8 4 0 4 ,1 8 9 739 46 0 2 ,0 5 1 4 ,8 5 4 849 58 0 0 .7 5 1 .4 3 0 .2 6 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .5 6 1 .3 4 0 .2 3 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE M IN IN G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G ......... .................... COAL M IN IN G ............................................................................................... CRUDE PETROLEUM.............................................................................. .. STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND Q UARRYING............................ 0 0 1 65 0 15 0 0 1 57 0 17 0 0 1 08 0 33 0 0 39 0 40 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. CHE M ICA L AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G .......................................... NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUCTION....................... NEW N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION.............. NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION.................................. NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TION........................................................... 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A LL OTHER NEW CO NSTRUC TIO N..................................................... MAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CO NSTRUCTION............................ G UIDED M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... 0 0 0 105 4 9 ,5 1 8 0 0 0 1 48 5 9 ,6 5 0 0 0 0 221 7 8 ,4 7 0 0 0 0 271 8 8 ,5 3 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 7 2 8 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 7 2 4 .3 7 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING ................................................................... F A B R IC , Y AR N, AND THREAD M IL L S .......................................... M ISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S .... HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................ A PP A R E L.......................................................................................................... 4 ,9 4 1 563 57 821 1 2 ,7 1 6 5 ,0 7 4 754 55 1 ,4 7 9 1 4 ,5 2 0 6 ,2 3 6 1 ,1 1 3 101 2 ,2 2 7 2 0 ,7 4 3 6 ,3 6 7 1 ,2 5 8 121 2 ,4 6 6 2 2 ,9 4 6 2 .3 8 0 .3 5 0 .0 3 0 .6 9 6 .8 2 1 .7 5 0 .3 5 0 .0 3 0 .6 8 6 .3 2 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS........... LO G G IN G , S A W M ILL S , AND P LA N IN G M IL L S .......................... M ILLW O R K, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS____ HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................ OTHER F U R N IT U R E .............................................................................. .... 1 ,2 6 8 62 0 0 0 1 ,9 7 2 66 0 0 0 3 ,0 1 2 60 0 0 0 3 ,5 8 3 59 0 0 0 0 .9 3 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .9 9 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD................................................................................................. P U B L IS H IN G ............................................................................................ ... P R IN T IN G ....................................................................................................... C HEM ICAL PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 1 ,2 4 1 74 1 ,7 9 6 397 266 1 ,5 0 9 1 05 2 ,1 3 1 475 387 2 ,9 1 7 2 07 2 ,8 7 0 999 640 3 ,5 0 2 248 3 ,2 1 3 1 ,2 0 1 755 0 .7 1 0 .0 5 1 .0 0 0 .2 2 0 .1 8 0 .9 6 0 .0 7 0 .8 8 0 .3 3 0 .2 1 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. AGR IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ............................................................... P L A S T IC M A TE R IA LS AND S Y N TH E TIC RUBBER.................... S Y N TH E TIC F IB E R S ........................................................................... .. . DRUGS............................................................................................................ .. C LE A N IN G AND T O IL E T P R E P A R A TIO N S .................................... 45 12 0 1 ,9 8 2 3 ,3 9 1 0 19 ( 3 ,2 8 9 5 ,8 5 4 1 14 28 0 5 ,8 9 4 1 1 ,3 4 1 1 36 34 0 7 ,4 0 6 1 4 ,4 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 1 .5 4 2 .7 5 0 .0 4 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 2 .0 4 3 .9 6 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. P A IN T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................................................................... P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................. LE A T H E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 23 8 .2 2 8 444 17 2 ,9 5 7 19 1 1 ,3 4 1 560 27 3 ,1 6 8 38 1 7 .5 1 6 1 ,0 5 0 35 3 ,9 1 0 45 2 1 ,1 4 9 1 .1 7 1 38 4 ,2 8 4 0 .0 1 5 .3 3 0 .2 6 0 .0 1 1 .4 9 0 .0 1 5 .8 2 0 .3 2 0 .0 1 1 .1 8 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. G LA S S ............................................................................................................... M ISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... B LAST FURNACES AND B A S IC S TEE L PRODUCTS................. IRO N AND S TEE L FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... 11 0 44 9 0 15 0 54 16 0 24 0 107 25 0 28 0 1 28 28 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 4 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER M ETALS................................................................... PRIMARY A LU M IN U M ................................................................................. OTHER PRIM ARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L .. COPPER R O L LIN G AND DRAWING..................................................... ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS R O LLIN G AND DRAWING.......................... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS................. METAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S ................. F A B R IC A TE D STRUCTURAL M ETAL.................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER F A B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS....................................... E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS................. ................ FARM M ACHINERY...................................................................................... CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y .. 24 235 0 0 0 37 316 0 0 0 58 602 0 0 0 69 7 81 0 0 0 0 .0 2 0 .1 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .2 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 66. 67. 68. M A TE R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP M E N T.................................................. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ S P E C IA L INDUSTRY M ACHINERY..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 CEMENT, CLAY, AND CONCRETE P R O D U C T S ........... ....................... 16 8 TABLE B-7: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES FOR NONDURABLE GOODS, 1963, 197B AND'PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985^-CONTINUED (PRODUCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) IN D U S TR Y CODE 1970 1963 1980 1985 PERCENT 1970 D IS T R IB U T IO N 1985 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... COMPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L EQUIPM ENT............................... TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E M ACHINES....................... SER VIC E IN D U S TR Y M A C H IN E S ....................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 74. 75. 76. 77. 78. E LE C TR IC TR A N S M IS SIO N E Q U IP M E N T....................................... E LE C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS....................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ..................................................................... E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND W IR IN G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................ 8 0 1 32 215 0 0 0 265 267 0 0 0 476 478 0 0 0 6 25 5 77 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 2 0 .1 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 7 0 .1 6 0 .0 0 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELE C TR O N IC COMMUNICATION EQ U IPM ENT.............. ELECTR ON IC COMPONENTS.................................................................. OTHER E L E C T R IC A L MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... 0 0 0 52 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 108 0 0 0 0 1 30 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 4 0 .0 0 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A F T ...................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR .................................. RA ILR O A D AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ... MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQ U IPM ENT.................... S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS.................... 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 12 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. M EDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M EN TS .......................................... O P T IC A L AND OPHTHALM IC EQ U IPM ENT.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRA NS P O R TATIO N............................................................. 79 0 204 1 ,5 2 2 1 ,1 6 3 1 00 0 356 2 ,2 8 9 1 ,4 2 1 1 37 0 5 37 3 ,4 4 2 2 ,0 1 6 172 0 721 4 ,2 0 3 2 ,2 9 4 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 0 .1 7 1 .0 7 0 .6 7 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 0 .2 0 1 .1 6 0 .6 3 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPOR TATIO N..................................................................... WATER TRA NS P O R TATIO N..................................................................... A IR TRA N S P O R TATIO N .......................................................................... OTHER TRANSPO R TATIO N..................................................................... 0 1 ,5 7 2 424 48 210 0 1 ,9 2 9 648 97 2 99 0 2 ,8 0 6 1 ,2 4 9 236 475 0 3 ,2 5 8 1 ,4 5 4 270 579 0 .0 0 0 .9 1 0 .3 0 0 .0 5 0 .1 4 0 .0 0 0 .9 0 0 .4 0 0 .0 7 0 .1 6 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. CO M M UNICATIO N S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BRO ADCASTING ....................................................... E LE C T R IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... WATER AND S A N ITA R Y S E R V IC B S .................................................. 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 0 63 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE TR A D E ................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE........................................................................................... F IN A N C E .................................. ...................................................................... IN S U R A N C E .................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED D W ELLIN G S .......................................................... 1 7 ,0 4 5 4 5 ,5 7 6 0 5 0 2 2 .5 2 1 5 9 ,3 0 9 0 13 0 3 5 ,3 4 6 8 8 ,4 8 0 0 33 0 4 1 ,2 0 8 1 0 2 ,1 8 8 0 36 0 1 0 .5 7 2 7 .8 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 1 1 .3 4 2 8 .1 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 109. 110. 111. 1 12. 113. OTHER REAL E S T A T E ............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S ........................................................ OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS B U S IN ES S S E R V IC E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS IN G .............................................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 114. 115. 116. 117. 118. MISCELLANEOUS PRO FESSIONAL S E R V IC B S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR ............................................................................. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH S ER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 HOSPITALS........................................ 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S ............................................................. POST O F F IC E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY C R E D IT CORPORATION............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 124. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL E N TE R P R IS E S ........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S .................... D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS ..................................................... TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................ BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............ 6 0 2 ,6 4 3 0 0 0 0 5 ,0 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 ,8 0 7 0 0 0 0 1 3 ,4 4 7 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 2 .3 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 3 .7 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ................................................................................... SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.................................... GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 0 -6 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 -3 7 0 0 0 0 -5 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 -0 .0 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 -0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 134. INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N ADJUSTM ENT.......................................... T O T A L ,............................................................................................................ 0 1 6 7 ,2 6 1 0 2 1 2 ,9 6 6 0 3 1 5 ,1 7 7 0 3 6 3 ,3 0 1 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 EDUCATIONAL S E R V I C E S ..................................................................................... 16 9 TABLB B-8: INDUSTRIAL COHPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUHPTION EXPENDITURES FOB SERVICES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 (PRODUCERS' VALUE IN BILLIONS-OF 1963 DOLLARS) ___________________________________________________ IN D U S TR Y CODE 1963 1970 1980 PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 1985 1. 2. 3. 9. 5. L IV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTBEB AG R IC ULTURAL PBODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ............................................................. AG BICULTU B E , FO RESTRY, AND FIS H E R Y S E R V I C E S .. . IR O N ORB H IR IN G .................................................................................... 1 13 0 0 0 0 1 79 0 0 0 0 329 0 0 0 0 9 09 0 0 0 0 0 .0 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE H IN IN G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERBOUS HETAL ORE H IN IN G .................................. COAL H IN IN G ............................................................................................... CRUDE P ETE O LEUH................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY H IN IN G AND Q UARRYING............................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 11. 12. 13. 19. 15. C Q E H IC & L AND F E R T IL IZ E R H IN IN G .......................................... NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B O L ID IN G CO NSTRUC TION....................... NEW N O N B E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION.............. NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION.................................. NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TIO N........................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A L L OTHER NEW C C N STR UCTIO N..................................................... HAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CO NSTRUCTION............................ GUIDED H IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 21. 22. 23. 29. 25. TOBACCO HA NUFA CTU RING ................................................................... F A B R IC , Y AR N, AND THREAD H I L L S .......................................... H IS CE LLA NEO US T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S .... HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................ A P P A R E L.......................................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. HIS CE LLA NEO US F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL B PBODUCTS............ L O G G IN G , S A W H IL L S , AND P LA N IN G H IL L S .......................... H IL LW O E K , PLYWOOD, AND OTHEB HOOD P R O D U C T S .... HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................ OTHER F U R N IT U R E ................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 31. 32. 33. 39. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................. P U B L IS H IN G .................................................................................................. P R IN T IN G ....................................................................................................... C H E H IC A L PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 90. A G R IC ULTURAL C H E H IC A L S ................................................................ P L A S T IC H A T E R IA L S AND S Y N T H E T IC RUBBER.................... S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S ................................................................................. DRUGS................................................................................................................ C LE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S ..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 91. 92. 93. 99. 95. P A IN T ................................................................................................................ PETROLEUH PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................................................................... P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................. L E A TH E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 96. 97. 98. 99. 50. G LA S S ............................................................................................................... CEHENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PBODUCTS............................. HISCELLANEO US STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC S TEE L PBODUCTS................. IRO N AND S TEE L FOUNDRIES AND FCE G ING S ....................... 0 0 59 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 0 83 0 0 0 0 89 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 51. 52. 53. 59. 55. P R IHARY COPPER H E T A LS ................................................................... PR IH A BY A L U H IN U H ................................................................................. OTHER P R IH A R Y AND SECONDARY NONFEBEOUS H E T A L .. COPPER B O L L IN G AND DBAW ING..................................................... A LU H IN U H R O L LIN G AND DBAW ING ............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS B O L L IN G AND DBAWING.......................... HISCELLANEO US NCNFEEBOUS HETAL PBODUCTS................. HETAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND P LU H BIN G F IX T U R E S ................. FA B H IC A TE D STRUCTURAL H E T A L .................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 61. 62. 63. 69. 65. SCBEW M ACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHEB FA B R IC A T E D HETAL PRODUCTS....................................... E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARH H A C H IN E R Y ...................................................................................... C O NSTRUC TIO N , H IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D H A C H IN E R Y .. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 66. 67. 68. H A T E R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP H E N T .................................................. METALWORKING H A C H IN E R Y ................................................................ S P E C IA L IN D U S TR Y HA C H IN E R Y ..................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 17 0 . TA BLE B - 8 : IN D U S T R IA L C O H P O S ITIO N OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION 1 9 6 3 ,. 19-7-0 AN» -PSQJSCTED .1 9 0 0 AND 1 9 8 5 -^ C Q N T IN U E D CPBODUC%a,S’ VALUE i N B IL L IO N S QC 19 63 DOLLARS) IN D U S TR Y CODE E XPENDITUR ES 1963 FOR S E R V IC E S , 1970 1980 1985 PERCENT 1970 D IS T R IB U T IO N 1985 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L H A C H IN E R Y ............................................... HACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS.................................................................. COMPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L E Q U IPM ENT............................... TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES....................... SER VIC E INDUSTRY M A CHINE S ........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 74. 75. 76. 77. 78. E LE C T R IC TR A N S M IS S IO N E Q U IP M E N T....................................... E L E C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS....................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ...................................................................... E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND H IR IN G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. CTHBR ELECTR O N IC COMMUNICATION EQU IPM ENT.............. E LE C TR O N IC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER E L E C T R IC A L MACHINERY.................................... ............ MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 89. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A F T ...................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR .................................. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ... MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATIO N EQ U IP M E N T.................... S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS.................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M EN T S .......................................... O P T IC A L AND O PH THALM IC EQ U IP M E N T.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ R AILR O AD TRANSPO R TATIO N............................................................. 0 0 0 0 447 0 0 0 0 320 0 0 0 0 626 0 0 0 0 716 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 7 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TR A N S P O R TATIO N ..................................................................... HATER TRA NS P O R TATIO N..................................................................... A IR TRA NS P O R TATIO N........................................................................... OTHER TR A N S P O R TATIO N ..................................................................... 2 ,2 7 2 395 119 1 ,2 2 6 10 1 ,9 7 2 456 188 2 ,8 9 7 16 2 ,0 9 1 687 309 6 ,0 9 3 15 2 ,0 6 2 790 386 7 ,8 9 4 15 0 .9 4 0 .2 2 0 .0 9 1 .3 8 0 .0 1 0 .5 0 0 .1 9 0 .0 9 1 .9 2 0 .0 0 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. CO M M UNICATION S, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV B RO ADCASTING ........................................................ E LE C TR IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... HATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S .................................................. 5 ,5 4 0 0 6 ,0 5 3 3 ,7 9 9 1 ,4 7 1 9 ,8 5 4 0 9 ,4 0 3 4 ,8 4 2 1 ,7 4 2 2 0 ,0 9 3 0 1 5 ,4 1 9 7 ,0 2 3 2 ,1 1 4 2 6 ,7 3 6 0 1 8 ,6 5 0 8 ,3 1 5 2 ,2 3 5 4 .6 8 0 .0 0 4 .4 6 2 .3 0 0 .8 3 6 .5 1 0 .0 0 4 .5 4 2 .0 2 0 .5 4 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE TR A D E ................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE........................................................................................... F IN A N C E ......................................................................................................... IN S U R A N C E .................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED D W E L L IN G S ....................................................... 26 60 8 ,9 2 9 7 ,9 3 6 3 8 ,7 2 6 17 73 1 2 ,0 6 0 1 0 ,3 4 0 5 2 ,6 7 2 30 110 2 1 ,1 2 1 1 6 ,4 8 8 8 3 ,3 8 2 36 1 32 2 5 ,2 7 4 1 9 ,4 0 5 1 0 3 .2 4 7 0 .0 1 0 .0 3 5 .7 2 4 .9 1 2 5 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 3 6 .1 5 4 .7 2 2 5 .1 2 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. OTHER REAL E S T A T E .............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S ........................................................ OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS B U S IN ES S S E R V IC E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS IN G .............................................................................................. 1 5 ,1 3 0 1 ,8 8 3 9 ,9 5 2 477 120 2 2 ,6 4 8 2 ,6 6 1 1 0 ,9 8 8 1 ,0 7 2 206 3 7 ,2 1 6 4 ,0 4 3 1 4 ,8 5 3 1 ,8 9 0 4 07 4 5 ,9 2 5 4 ,8 7 9 1 6 ,3 3 9 2 ,2 6 4 491 1 0 .7 5 1 .2 6 5 .2 2 0 .5 1 0 .1 0 1 1 .1 7 1 .1 9 3 .9 8 0 .5 5 0 .1 2 114. 115. 116. 117. 118. MISCELLANEOUS P RO FES S IO N AL S E R V IC E S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR .............................................................................. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SER VICE S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 2 ,3 7 0 6 ,6 9 2 942 3 ,6 7 4 1 0 ,9 9 8 2 ,7 8 2 7 ,8 8 3 689 4 ,1 4 6 1 4 ,6 6 4 3 ,7 2 1 1 1 ,2 4 3 592 6 ,2 4 8 2 5 ,5 4 5 4 ,1 2 0 1 2 ,4 8 6 521 7 ,0 7 9 3 0 ,5 8 4 1 .3 2 3 .7 4 0 .3 3 1 .9 7 6 .9 6 1 .0 0 3 .0 4 0 .1 3 1 .7 2 7 .4 4 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S ...................................................................... NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S ............................................................. POST O F F IC E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY C R E D IT CO RPO RATIO N............................................... 6 ,6 8 6 4 ,4 1 4 7 ,2 3 4 882 0 1 0 .7 3 7 6 ,5 2 8 9 ,5 3 1 1 ,1 2 0 0 2 0 .5 4 5 9 ,5 4 6 1 4 ,4 0 5 1 ,7 2 1 0 2 6 .9 8 6 1 1 ,3 0 0 1 7 ,0 9 4 1 ,9 8 4 0 5 .1 0 3 .1 0 4 .5 2 0 .5 3 0 .0 0 6 .5 7 2 .7 5 4 .1 6 0 .4 8 0 .0 0 124. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ....................................................... STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S .................... D IR E C TLY ALLOCATED IM P O R TS ..................................................... TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................ BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............ 0 638 2 ,4 5 5 0 0 0 928 3 ,7 9 6 0 0 0 1 ,3 4 7 6 ,8 6 6 0 0 0 1 ,6 2 0 8 ,7 2 7 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .4 4 1 .8 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .3 9 2 .1 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ................................................................................... SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.................................... GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 0 -4 1 0 0 3 ,8 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 ,1 9 4 0 -7 7 0 0 2 ,6 8 4 0 -1 0 9 0 0 2 ,3 2 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 .5 2 0 .0 0 -0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .5 6 134. INVENTORY V A LU A TIO N A DJUSTM ENT......................................... T O T A L ............................................................................................................... 0 1 5 5 ,5 1 2 0 2 1 0 ,6 6 7 0 3 3 8 ,8 1 2 0 4 1 1 ,0 0 2 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 17 1 TABLE B- 9 :INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OP GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 (PEODOCEES1 VALUE IN MILLIONS CP 1963 DOLLAES) ............................. IN D U S TR Y CODE --- — — ...................... . ....... ........................... PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 1963 1970 618 966 74 0 -9 2 759 1 ,1 8 4 90 0 -1 1 2 7 31 1 ,1 3 8 87 0 -1 0 8 0 .5 7 0 .9 0 0 .0 7 0 .0 0 -0 .0 9 0 .3 3 0 .5 1 0 .0 4 0 .0 0 -0 .0 5 1980 1985 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LIV E S T O C K AND L IV E S T O C K PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER AGR IC U LTU R A L PRODUCTS....................... PORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................ A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RESTRY, AND FIS H ER Y S E R V IC E S ... IRO N ORE M IN IN G ................................................................................... 374 584 44 0 -5 5 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE M IN IN G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFBRROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G .................................. COAL M IN IN G .............................................................................................. CRUDE PETROLEUM................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND Q UARRYING ............................ -3 -1 0 16 1 -4 -1 0 26 3 -6 0 0 32 2 -6 0 0 31 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. CHE M ICA L AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G .......................................... NES R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUCTION....................... NEV N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUC TION.............. NEH P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION.................................. NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TIO N.......................................................... -1 2 6 ,1 8 7 1 1 ,6 4 4 4 ,6 6 7 0 -1 2 4 ,0 5 5 1 4 ,9 8 6 8 ,0 2 6 0 0 4 0 ,4 3 3 2 3 ,9 4 8 1 5 ,9 2 5 0 0 4 8 ,0 6 3 2 8 ,6 6 2 1 8 ,3 9 1 0 0 .0 0 2 2 .3 8 1 3 .9 4 7 .4 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 2 1 .3 8 1 2 .7 5 8 .1 8 0 .0 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A L L OTHER NEH CO NSTRDCTION..................................................... MAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CO NSTRUCTION............................ G UIDED M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... 3 ,6 5 3 0 -2 4 -3 583 2 ,7 9 8 0 -3 9 -4 965 2 ,4 8 5 0 -4 8 -5 1 ,1 8 2 2 ,3 9 7 0 -4 6 -5 1 ,1 3 7 2 .6 0 0 .0 0 -0 .0 4 0 .0 0 0 .9 0 1 .0 7 0 .0 0 -0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .5 1 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO M A NUFACTURING .................................................................. F A B R IC , YAR N, AND THREAD H I L L S .......................................... M ISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S .... HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................ A PPAREL.......................................................................................................... 23 33 146 15 53 39 53 208 24 87 46 66 265 30 1 06 45 63 267 29 102 0 .0 4 0 .0 5 0 .1 9 0 .0 2 0 .0 8 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 0 .1 2 0 .0 1 0 .0 5 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............ LO G G IN G , S A W M ILL S , AND P LA N IN G H IL L S .......................... M ILLW O R K, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WCOD P R O D U C T S .... HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................ OTHER F U R N IT U R E ................................................................................... 40 22 46 197 1 ,1 4 1 65 36 75 278 1 ,5 0 0 80 45 97 373 2 ,4 9 0 77 44 96 387 2 ,7 5 0 0 .0 6 0 .0 3 0 .0 7 0 .2 6 1 .4 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 2 0 .0 4 0 .1 7 1 .2 2 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD................................................................................................. P U B L IS H IN G ................................................................................................. P R IN T IN G ....................................................................................................... CHEM ICAL PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 90 33 68 41 65 148 53 112 68 1 07 181 66 1 37 84 131 1 75 64 132 81 1 26 0 .1 4 0 .0 5 0 .1 0 0 .0 6 0 .1 0 0 .0 8 0 .0 3 0 .0 6 0 .0 4 0 .0 6 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. AGR IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ................................................................ P L A S T IC M A T E R IA L S AND S YN TH E TIC RUBBER.................... S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S ................................................................................. DRUGS.............................................................................................................. CLE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S .................................... 24 13 12 97 63 40 22 21 160 1 05 48 27 24 1 96 1 28 46 26 23 189 1 24 0 .0 4 0 .0 2 0 .0 2 0 .1 5 0 .1 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 8 0 .0 6 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. P A IN T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS................................................................................... P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................ LE A T H E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 39 1 77 74 49 -5 5 64 293 1 13 82 -9 2 79 359 146 1 00 -1 1 2 76 346 145 96 -1 0 8 0 .0 6 0 .2 7 0 .1 1 0 .0 8 -0 .0 9 0 .0 3 0 .1 5 0 .0 6 0 .0 4 -0 .0 5 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. G LA S S ............................................................................................................... CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................ M ISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC S TEE L PRODUCTS................. IRO N AND S TEE L FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... 68 21 49 96 7 1 13 35 82 159 11 139 43 1 00 194 13 134 42 96 187 13 0 .1 1 0 .0 3 0 .0 8 0 .1 5 0 .0 1 0 .0 6 0 .0 2 0 .0 4 0 .0 8 0 .0 1 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER M ETALS................................................................... PRIMARY A LU M INUM ................................................................ ................ OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERBOUS M E T A L .. COPPER P O L L IN G AND DRAW ING..................................................... ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING............................................... 7 -9 -1 0 15 67 11 -1 4 -1 7 25 111 13 -1 8 -2 1 31 137 13 -1 7 -2 0 30 1 32 0 .0 1 -0 .0 1 -0 .0 2 0 .0 2 0 .1 0 0 .0 1 -0 .0 1 -0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 6 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS RO LLIN G AND DRAWING.......................... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS................. METAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S ................. FA B R IC ATE D STRUCTURAL M ETAL.................................................. 66 7 37 16 607 1 07 12 57 26 1 ,0 1 0 1 56 14 76 32 1 ,7 1 5 1 62 14 73 31 1 ,8 8 9 0 .1 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 5 0 .0 2 0 .9 4 0 .0 7 0 .0 1 0 .0 3 0 .0 1 0 .8 4 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER F A B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS....................................... E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARM MACHINERY................................................ , ................................... CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y .. 56 335 415 1 ,9 4 8 1 ,8 1 2 92 507 858 3 ,1 6 4 2 ,5 1 4 1 13 715 1 ,6 6 2 5 ,1 0 7 4 ,0 7 6 1 09 784 1 ,9 5 5 5 ,9 5 2 4 ,6 4 4 0 .0 9 0 .4 7 0 .8 0 2 .9 4 2 .3 4 0 .0 5 0 .3 5 0 .8 7 2 .6 5 2 .0 7 66. 67. 68. M A TE R IA L HANDLING EQ U IP M E NT.................................................. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ S P E C IA L IN D U S TR Y MACHINERY..................................................... 677 1 ,7 2 6 2 ,0 5 0 1 ,0 0 7 2 ,3 6 0 2 ,6 0 2 1 ,7 2 6 3 ,5 4 0 4 ,0 4 3 2 ,2 7 7 3 ,9 0 8 4 ,1 7 4 0 .9 4 2 .2 0 2 .4 2 1 .0 1 1 .7 4 1 .8 6 17 2 JAfitE B- 9:INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INV«STfl£Nf, 1 9 3 , 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985— CONTINUED *6, (PRODUCERS* VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) IN D U S TR Y CODE 1963 1970 1980 1985 PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L M AC H IN E R Y ............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... COMPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L EQ U IPM ENT............................... TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E M ACHINES....................... S E R VIC E IN D U S TR Y M A C H IN E S ........................................................ 1 ,9 2 9 15 1 ,3 0 6 350 1 , 169 1 ,8 6 9 26 3 ,9 8 5 630 1 ,9 5 6 3 ,0 1 9 97 9 ,3 6 5 1 ,1 0 5 3 ,6 3 1 3 ,6 9 7 59 1 3 ,1 1 2 1 ,9 0 3 9 ,2 6 2 1 .7 3 0 .0 2 3 .2 9 0 .5 9 1 .8 2 1 .6 9 0 .0 2 5 .8 3 0 .6 2 1 .9 0 7*1. 75. 76. 77. 78. E LE C T R IC TR A N S M IS S IO N E Q U IP M E N T...................................... E LE C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS....................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ..................................................................... E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND W IR IN G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................ 1 ,2 8 2 602 3 31 82 255 1 ,3 9 8 689 939 159 906 2 ,1 6 8 1 ,3 1 3 562 269 6 26 2 ,6 6 7 1 ,9 8 7 5 59 313 660 1 .2 5 0 .6 9 0 .9 1 0 .1 9 0 .3 8 1 .1 9 0 .6 6 0 .2 5 0 .1 9 0 .2 9 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELE C TR O N IC COMMUNICATION EQ U IP M E NT.............. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER E L E C T R IC A L M ACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... 895 925 87 226 6 ,2 8 2 1, 873 1 ,6 9 8 231 929 6 ,9 7 5 3 ,5 9 9 3 ,2 7 0 999 817 1 5 ,7 1 3 9 ,1 8 0 3 ,9 8 8 603 989 1 7 ,1 6 5 1 .7 9 1 .5 8 0 .2 1 0 .3 9 6 .9 9 1 .8 6 1 .7 7 0 .2 7 0 .9 9 7 .6 9 8*1. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A F T ....................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR .................................. R A ILR O A D AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ... MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATIO N EQ U IP M E NT.................... S C IE N T IF IC AND CO NTROLLING INS TRUM ENTS .................... 788 329 979 213 937 1 ,9 9 3 5 93 1 ,7 9 7 589 591 9 ,7 8 7 1 ,2 2 6 3 ,0 9 0 1 ,1 5 3 769 6 ,0 9 3 1 ,3 5 7 3 ,1 9 7 1 ,9 9 1 838 1 .8 1 0 .5 1 1 .6 3 0 .5 5 0 .5 5 2 .7 1 0 .6 0 1 .9 2 0 .6 6 0 .3 7 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M E N T S .......................................... O P T IC A L AND O PHTHALM IC E Q U IP M E N T.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILR OAD TRA N S P O R TATIO N ............................................................. 292 1 96 208 5 97 291 508 270 692 813 997 1 ,2 1 9 969 1 ,6 1 5 1 ,1 7 1 825 1 ,9 1 7 557 2 ,3 7 7 1 ,2 9 7 90 9 0 .9 7 0 .2 5 0 .6 9 0 .7 6 0 .9 2 0 .6 3 0 .2 5 1 .0 6 0 .5 8 0 .9 0 9*1. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y B U S ....................................... TRUCK TRA NS P O R TATIO N...................................................................... WATER TR A N S P O R TATIO N ...................................................................... A IR TRA NS P O R TATIO N........................................................................... OTHER TR A N S P O R TATIO N ..................................................................... 0 393 21 17 9 0 588 32 31 7 0 979 51 95 8 0 1 ,0 7 2 56 50 7 0 .0 0 0 .5 5 0 .0 3 0 .0 3 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .9 8 0 .0 2 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. CO M M UNICATION S, EXCEPT R A DIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BRO AD CASTING ........................................................ E LE C T R IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... WATER AND S A N ITA R Y S E R V IC E S .................................................. 985 0 0 0 0 1 ,0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 ,8 1 3 0 0 0 0 2 ,1 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 .9 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .9 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 109. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE T R A D E ................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................ F IN A N C E .......................................................................................................... IN S U R A N C E .................... ............................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED D W E LLIN G S .......................................................... 2 ,8 0 6 2 ,3 7 6 0 1 0 9 ,6 3 9 3 ,8 1 3 0 1 0 7 ,2 9 9 6 ,9 5 7 0 2 0 8 ,0 7 3 7 ,1 1 7 0 2 0 9 .3 1 3 .5 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 3 .5 9 3 .1 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. OTHER REAL E S T A T E .............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING P L A C E S ........................................................ OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS B U S IN ES S S E R V IC E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS IN G ............................................................................................... 1 ,2 2 9 0 0 0 0 1 ,1 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 ,8 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 ,1 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 .0 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .9 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 11*1. 115. 116. 117. 118. MISCELLANEOUS PRO FESSION AL S E R V IC E S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR .............................................................................. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................. HEALTH SER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S ...................................................................... 0 0 0 0 O R G A N I Z A T I O N S ........................................................................... 0 0 0 POST O F F IC E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY C R E D IT CO RPO RATIO N............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NONPROFIT 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 -0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 12*1. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N T E R P R IS E S .................... D IR E C TL Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS ..................................................... TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................ B U S IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............ 0 0 1 87 0 0 0 0 579 0 0 0 0 3 96 0 0 0 0 905 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .5 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O F F IC E S U P P L IE S .................................................................................... SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.................................... GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................. 0 -8 6 6 0 0 0 0 -1 ,2 7 2 0 0 0 0 -2 ,0 1 7 0 0 0 0 -2 ,9 3 9 0 0 0 0 .0 0 -1 .1 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 -1 .0 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 139. INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N ADJUSTM ENT.......................................... T O T A L ............................................................................................................... -5 0 2 8 5 ,8 3 8 -9 ,3 1 6 1 0 7 ,9 9 9 -1 ,0 1 7 1 9 2 ,6 0 0 -9 8 0 2 2 9 ,8 0 0 -9 .0 2 1 0 0 .0 0 -0 .9 9 1 0 0 .0 0 . 17 3 TABLE B-10:INDOSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF FIXED INVESTMENT, (PRODOCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 1970 1963 1 98 0 1985 PERCENT 1970 D IS T R IB U T IO N 1985 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LIV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER A G R IC U LTU R A L PRODUCTS................. .. FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................ A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RESTRY, AND F IS H E R Y S E R V IC E S ... IRO N ORE M IN IN G .................................................................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE M IN IN G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G .................................. COAL M IN IN G ............................................................................................... CRUDE PETROLEUM.................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND Q UARRYING............................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 *0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. CHEM ICAL AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G .......................................... NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUC TION....................... NEW N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION.............. NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUC TION.................................. NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TIO N........................................................... 0 2 6 ,1 8 7 1 1 ,6 4 4 4 ,6 6 7 0 0 2 4 ,0 5 5 1 4 ,9 8 6 8 ,0 2 6 0 0 4 0 ,4 3 3 2 3 ,9 4 8 1 5 ,9 2 5 0 0 4 8 ,0 6 3 2 8 ,6 6 2 1 8 ,3 9 1 0 0 .0 0 2 3 .1 9 1 4 .4 5 7 .7 4 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 2 2 .4 2 1 3 .3 7 8 .5 8 0 .0 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A L L OTHER NEW CO NSTRUC TIO N..................................................... MAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CONSTRUCTION............................ G UIDED M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE....................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... 3 ,6 5 3 0 0 0 0 2 ,7 9 8 0 0 0 0 2 ,4 8 5 0 0 0 0 2 ,3 9 7 0 0 0 0 2 .7 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 .1 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO M ANUFACTURING ................................................................... F A B R IC , YAR N, AND THREAD M IL L S .......................................... MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S .... HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................ A P P A R E L .......................................................................................................... 0 0 63 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 0 98 0 0 0 0 1 06 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. M ISCELLANEOUS F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............ LO G G IN G , S A W M IL L S , AND P LA N IN G M IL L S .......................... M ILLW O R K, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S .... HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ......................................................................... OTHER F U R N IT U R E .................................................................................... 0 0 5 1 24 1 , 127 0 0 9 157 1 ,4 7 8 0 0 14 225 2 ,4 6 2 0 0 16 2 44 2 ,7 2 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .1 5 1 .4 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .1 1 1 .2 7 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS....................................................................................... PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................. P U B L IS H IN G .................................................................................................. P R IN T IN G ........................................................................................................ C HEM ICAL PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. A G R IC ULTURAL C H E M IC A L S ................................................................ P L A S T IC M A TE R IA LS AND S Y N T H E T IC RUBBER.................... S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S ................................................................................. DRUGS............................................................................................................... CLE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S ..................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. P A IN T ................................................................................................................ PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................................................................... P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................. L E A TH E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 0 0 18 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. G LA S S ................................................................................................................ CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................ MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRON AND STEE L FOUNDRIES AND FO RG ING S....................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER M E TA LS ................................................................... PRIMARY A LU M IN U M ................................................................................. OTHER PRIM ARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L .. COPPER RO LLIN G AND DRAW ING..................................................... ALUMINUM R O L LIN G AND DRAW ING................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 .0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS R O L LIN G AND DRAWING.......................... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS................. METAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S ................. FA B R IC A TE D STRUCTURAL M ETAL.................................................. 22 0 9 0 536 34 0 12 0 8 93 66 0 20 0 1 ,5 7 2 76 0 19 0 1 ,7 5 1 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .8 6 0 .0 4 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .8 2 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................. OTHER F A B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS....................................... E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARM MACHINERY....................................................................................... CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y .. 0 242 388 1 ,9 0 2 1 ,7 6 0 0 3 53 813 3 ,0 8 8 2 ,4 2 7 0 5 27 1 ,6 0 7 5 ,0 1 4 3 ,9 7 0 0 603 1 ,9 0 2 5 ,8 6 2 4 ,5 4 2 0 .0 0 0 .3 4 0 .7 8 2 .9 8 2 .3 4 0 .0 0 0 .2 8 0 .8 9 2 .7 3 2 .1 2 66. 67. 68. M A TE R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP M E N T.................................................. METALWORKING M ACHINERY................................................................ S P E C IA L IN D U S TR Y MACHINERY..................................................... 665 1 ,6 7 0 2 ,0 2 5 9 86 2 ,2 6 8 2 ,5 6 0 1 ,7 0 2 3 ,4 2 7 3 ,9 9 2 2 ,2 5 4 3 ,7 9 9 4 ,1 2 5 0 .9 5 2 .1 9 2 .4 7 1 .0 5 1 .7 7 1 .9 2 17 4 TABLE B-1'0: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF FIXED IfTVESTMB'V’ 1963, 19'70, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985— CONTINUED t, (PRODUCERS* -VALUE TN MILLIONS OF 19-63 DOLLARS) I ■ INDUSTRY CODE 1970 1963 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... COMPUTERS AND P ER IP H E R A L E Q U IP M E N T............................... TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES....................... S ER VICE INDUSTRY M AC H IN E S ....................................................... 1 ,3 8 6 79. 75. 76. 77. 78. 1 98 0 1985 PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 1 ,2 8 1 334 1 ,1 1 2 1 ,7 9 2 12 3 ,4 4 3 604 1 ,8 7 0 2 ,9 2 7 29 9 ,3 1 4 1 ,0 7 3 3 ,5 2 6 3 ,6 1 3 37 1 3 ,0 6 3 1 ,3 7 2 4 ,1 6 1 1 .7 3 0 .0 1 3 .3 2 0 .5 8 1 .8 0 1 .6 9 0 .0 2 6 .0 9 0 .6 4 1 .9 4 E LE C T R IC TR A N S M IS SIO N E Q U IP M E N T....................................... E LE C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APP A RA TUS ....................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ...................................................................... E LE C TR IC L IG H T IN G AND W IR IN G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................ 1 ,2 7 7 585 1 20 55 1 12 1 ,2 8 8 660 90 109 170 2 ,1 5 7 1 ,2 7 8 1 34 214 337 2 ,6 5 6 1 ,4 5 3 1 47 260 3 81 1 .2 4 0 .6 4 0 .0 9 0 .1 1 0 .1 6 1 .2 4 0 .6 8 0 .0 7 0 .1 2 0 .1 8 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER E LECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQ UIPMENT.............. ELECTR ON IC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER E L E C T R IC A L M ACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... 908 904 96 1 98 5 ,6 7 1 1 ,8 9 4 1 ,6 6 4 246 3 78 7 ,8 7 5 3 ,5 7 4 3 ,2 2 8 468 760 1 4 ,4 7 4 4 ,2 0 4 3 ,9 4 7 6 21 9 34 1 5 ,9 7 5 1 .8 3 1 .6 0 0 .2 4 0 .3 6 7 .5 9 1 .9 6 1 .8 4 0 .2 9 0 .4 4 7 .4 5 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A F T ....................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR ................................. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ... MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQU IPM ENT.................... S C IE N T IF IC AND CO NTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS.................... 446 344 9 53 168 403 1 ,3 7 9 5 76 1 ,7 1 3 514 535 4 ,0 9 4 1 ,2 6 7 2 ,9 9 8 1 ,0 6 1 695 5 ,4 2 8 1 ,3 9 7 3 ,1 5 7 1 .4 0 2 771 1 .3 3 0 .5 6 1 .6 5 0 .5 0 0 .5 2 2 .5 3 0 .6 5 1 .4 7 0 .6 5 0 .3 6 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M E N T S .......................................... O P T IC A L AND O PHTHALM IC EQ U IP M E NT.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILR OAD TRANSPO R TATIO N............................................................. 270 1 43 1 97 497 228 473 2 66 674 7 31 342 1 ,1 7 0 463 1 ,5 9 3 1 ,0 7 0 697 1 ,3 7 4 551 2 ,3 5 5 1 ,2 0 0 786 0 .4 6 0 .2 6 0 .6 5 0 .7 0 0 .3 3 0 .6 4 0 .2 6 1 .1 0 0 .5 6 0 .3 7 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y B U S ....................................... TRUCK TRA NS P O R TATIO N..................................................................... WATER TRANSPO R TATIO N..................................................................... A IR TRA NS P O R TATIO N........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPOR TATIO N...................................................................... 0 317 13 16 0 0 4 62 19 30 0 0 819 35 43 0 0 923 41 48 0 0 .0 0 0 .4 5 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .4 3 0 .0 2 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. CO M M UNICATION S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BRO ADCASTING ........................................................ E LE C TR IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... WATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S .................................................. 485 0 0 0 0 1 ,0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 ,8 1 3 0 0 0 0 2 ,1 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 .9 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE TR A D E ................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................ F IN A N C E ......................................................................................................... IN S U R A N C E .................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED DW ELLIN G S .......................................................... 2 ,4 8 1 2 ,3 7 6 0 1 0 4 ,0 9 7 3 ,8 1 3 0 1 0 6 ,5 8 6 6 ,4 5 7 0 2 0 7 ,4 3 9 7 ,1 1 7 0 2 0 3 .9 5 3 .6 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 3 .4 7 3 .3 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 109. 1 10. 111. 112. 1 13. OTHER REAL E S T A T E ............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S ........................................................ OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................ MISCELLANEOUS BUS IN ES S S E R V IC E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS IN G .............................................................................................. 1 ,2 2 4 0 0 0 0 1 ,1 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 ,8 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 ,1 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 .1 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 114. 115. 116. 117. 118. MISCELLANEOUS P RO FESSIO N AL S E R V IC E S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR .............................................................................. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 119. 120. 121 . 122. 123. H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S ...................................................................... POST O F F IC E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY C R E D IT CO RPO RATIO N............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 124. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S .................... D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS ..................................................... TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................ BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............ 0 0 1 66 0 0 0 0 236 0 0 0 0 353 0 0 0 0 364 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .2 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ................................................................................... S CRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.................................... GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 0 -9 7 2 0 0 0 0 -1 ,4 4 5 0 0 0 0 -2 ,2 3 1 0 0 0 0 -2 ,6 4 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 - 1 .3 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 -1 .2 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 134. INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N ADJU S TM E N T.......................................... T O T A L ............................................................................................................... 0 8 0 ,5 0 8 0 1 0 3 ,7 2 7 0 1 8 1 ,8 0 0 0 2 1 4 ,4 0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 NONPROFIT O R G A N I Z A T I O N S ........................................................................... 6 17 5 TABLE B-11:INDUSTRIAL COHPOSITIOH OF SET EXPORTS, 1963, 1970, AMD PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 (PRODUCERS' VALUE IN BILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) IN D U S TR Y CODE 1970 1963 1980 1985 PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. L IV E S T O C K AND L IV E S T O C K PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER A G R IC ULTURAL PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................ A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RESTRY, AND FIS H ER Y S E R V IC E S ... IR O N ORE H IN IN G .................................................................................... 39 2 , 918 46 11 118 41 3 ,2 2 0 34 25 198 84 5 ,5 1 2 93 42 412 104 6 ,1 2 0 104 52 498 0 .0 8 6 .2 0 0 .0 7 0 .0 5 0 .3 8 0 .0 8 4 .6 4 0 .0 8 0 .0 4 0 .3 8 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE H I N IN G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS HETAL ORE H IN IN G .................................. COAL H IN IN G .............................................................................................. CRUDE PETR OLEUH................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY H IN IN G AND Q UARRYING............................ 0 1 305 12 38 28 8 3 91 23 98 59 17 707 17 202 75 21 8 70 15 259 0 .0 5 0 .0 2 0 .7 5 0 .0 4 0 .1 9 0 .0 6 0 .0 2 0 .6 6 0 .0 1 0 .2 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. C H E H IC A L AND F E R T IL IZ E R H IN IN G .......................................... NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUCTION....................... NEW N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CONSTRUCTION.............. NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION.................................. NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TION........................................................... 62 0 2 0 0 114 0 3 0 0 1 68 0 8 0 0 1 97 0 8 0 0 0 .2 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A L L OTHER NEW CO NSTRUC TIO N..................................................... HAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CO NSTRUCTION............................ G U ID E D M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... 0 0 0 1 97 1, 970 0 0 7 362 2 ,5 0 0 0 0 17 707 3 ,5 3 4 0 0 19 8 80 4 ,0 3 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .7 0 4 .8 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .6 7 3 .0 6 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO M ANUFACTURING .................................................................. F A B R IC , YAR N, AND THREAD H I L L S .......................................... M ISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR CO V ER IN G S ____ HO SIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................ APP A RE L.......................................................................................................... 510 302 29 17 289 5 19 3 11 92 34 370 673 5 14 2 69 101 673 725 605 383 1 45 7 77 1 .0 0 0 .6 0 0 .1 8 0 .0 7 0 .7 1 0 .5 5 0 .4 6 0 .2 9 0 .1 1 0 .5 9 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. M ISCELLANEOUS F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............ L O G G IN G , S A W M IL L S , AND P LA N IN G H IL L S .......................... H IL LW O R K , PLYWOCD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S .... HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................ OTHER F U R N IT U R E ................................................................................... 35 164 33 11 19 64 398 55 20 18 1 68 840 1 09 34 34 2 17 1 ,0 4 1 1 35 41 45 0 .1 2 0 .7 7 0 .1 1 0 .0 4 0 .0 3 0 .1 6 0 .7 9 0 .1 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 3 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD................................................................................................. P U B L IS H IN G ................................................................................................. P R IN T IN G ....................................................................................................... C H E H IC A L PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 449 23 163 2 1, 0 3 2 789 24 195 61 1 ,8 0 4 2 ,0 6 2 42 337 143 3 ,3 9 1 2 ,7 0 3 52 3 83 1 86 4 ,1 8 3 1 .5 2 0 .0 5 0 .3 8 0 .1 2 3 .4 8 2 .0 5 0 .0 4 0 .2 9 0 .1 4 3 .1 7 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. AGR IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ................................................................ P L A S T IC M A TE R IA LS AND S Y N TH E TIC RUBBER.................... S Y N TH E TIC F IB E R S ................................................................................. DRUGS............................................................................................................... C LE A N IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S .................................... 1 28 4 07 1 46 251 1 16 171 789 165 430 1 83 370 1 ,5 4 0 2 69 9 59 396 4 45 1 ,9 1 6 331 1 ,2 2 2 507 0 .3 3 1 .5 2 0 .3 2 0 .8 3 0 .3 5 0 .3 4 1 .4 5 0 .2 5 0 .9 3 0 .3 8 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. P A IN T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS................................................................................... P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................. LE A T H E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 31 682 175 101 68 47 849 1 88 149 65 93 1 ,4 9 8 252 286 135 1 14 1 ,7 4 0 270 352 166 0 .0 9 1 .6 4 0 .3 6 0 .2 9 0 .1 3 0 .0 9 1 .3 2 0 .2 0 0 .2 7 0 .1 3 46. 47. 46. 49. 50. G L A S S ......................................................................................................................................... CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................ M ISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... B LAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRON AND STEE L FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... 96 26 102 447 46 1 42 43 1 67 933 1 06 227 76 311 1 ,9 6 1 269 271 93 383 2 ,5 1 6 352 0 .2 7 0 .0 8 0 .3 2 1 .8 0 0 .2 0 0 .2 1 0 .0 7 0 .2 9 1 .9 1 0 .2 7 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER M ETALS................................................................... PRIMARY A LU M IN U M ................................................................................ OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L .. COPPER R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING..................................................... ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING............................................... 196 81 84 13 47 164 2 11 92 17 100 311 404 177 34 143 3 42 518 2 17 41 176 0 .3 2 0 .4 1 0 .1 8 0 .0 3 0 .1 9 0 .2 6 0 .3 9 0 .1 6 0 .0 3 0 .1 3 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS RO LLIN G AND DRAWING......................... M ISCELLANEOUS NCNFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS................. HETAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................ HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S ................. FA B R IC ATE D STRUCTURAL M E TA L.................................................. 66 5 25 38 213 1 06 10 14 51 250 210 17 34 101 370 259 21 40 1 24 4 25 0 .2 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 0 .1 0 0 .4 8 0 .2 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 0 .0 9 0 .3 2 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER FA B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS....................................... E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARM MACHINERY...................................................................................... CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y .. 44 268 303 285 936 255 430 411 258 1 ,3 1 3 5 12 842 985 412 2 ,1 7 1 651 1 ,0 3 5 1 ,2 7 0 478 2 ,4 6 3 0 .4 9 0 .8 3 0 .7 9 0 .5 0 2 .5 3 0 .4 9 0 .7 8 0 .9 6 0 .3 6 1 .8 7 66. 67. 68. M A TE R IA L HANDLING EQ U IP M E N T.................................................. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ S P E C IA L INDUS TRY MACHINERY..................................................... 96 423 5 61 1 43 434 784 278 797 1 ,2 7 9 342 9 43 1 ,5 3 6 0 .2 8 0 .8 4 1 .5 1 0 .2 6 0 .7 1 1 .1 6 17 6 TABLE B - 1 1 lI N D U S T B I A L CO M PO SITTO N "OF NET EXPORTS, ( PRODUCERS’ VALUE IN M IL L IO N S OF X 963 rDOLLARS) 1 '9 6 3 . IN D U S TR Y CODE 1970, AND PROJECTED 1 9 8 0 1963 1970 AND 1 9 8 5 — CONTINUED 1980 1985 PERCENT 1970 D IS T R IB U T IO N 1985 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINB SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... COHPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L E Q U IP H E N T ............................... TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES....................... SER VIC E IND U S TR Y M ACHINES........................................................ 378 0 259 58 209 570 16 1 ,1 6 6 1 00 380 926 34 3 ,8 0 4 5 56 6 73 1 ,0 8 7 41 4 ,8 3 9 720 845 1 .1 0 0 .0 3 2 .2 5 0 .1 9 0 .7 3 0 .8 2 0 .0 3 3 .6 7 0 .5 5 0 .6 4 74. 75. 76. 77. 78. E LE C TR IC TR A N S M IS SIO N E Q U IP H E N T ....................................... E L E C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS....................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ..................................................................... E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND H IR IN G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................ 155 1 89 184 81 89 300 280 224 161 1 59 6 06 5 88 4 96 345 3 37 777 740 6 63 466 435 0 .5 8 0 .5 4 0 .4 3 0 .3 1 0 .3 1 0 .5 9 0 .5 6 0 .5 0 0 .3 5 0 .3 3 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELE C TR O N IC COMM UNICATION E Q U IPM ENT.............. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER E L E C T R IC A L M ACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... 32 253 1 99 75 1 ,3 9 0 62 392 864 1 64 2 ,5 6 1 143 7 74 1 ,7 9 2 353 5 ,2 0 0 208 953 2 ,3 7 1 457 6 ,5 4 4 0 .1 2 0 .7 6 1 .6 6 0 .3 2 4 .9 3 0 .1 6 0 .7 2 1 .8 0 0 .3 5 4 .9 6 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A F T ...................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR .................................. R AILR O AD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATIO N E Q U IP M E N T ... MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQU IPM ENT.................... S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INS TRUM ENTS .................... 857 24 131 11 2 97 2 ,3 3 5 67 81 33 447 4 ,8 3 0 194 151 1 18 673 5 ,9 5 6 276 186 1 66 7 70 4 .5 0 0 .1 3 0 .1 6 0 .0 6 0 .8 6 4 .5 1 0 .2 1 0 .1 4 0 .1 3 0 .5 8 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M E N T S ......................................... O P T IC A L AND O PHTHALM IC E Q U IP M E N T.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRA NS P O R TATIO N............................................................. 76 21 158 215 629 1 26 54 374 424 1 ,0 2 7 295 151 1 ,1 1 1 825 1 ,6 4 1 393 2 17 1 ,5 5 3 1 ,0 3 5 1 ,8 7 4 0 .2 4 0 .1 0 0 .7 2 0 .8 2 1 .9 8 0 .3 0 0 .1 6 1 .1 8 0 .7 8 1 .4 2 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TR A N S P O R TATIO N ..................................................................... HATER TRANSPO R TATIO N...................................................................... A IR TRA NS P O R TATIO N........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPO R TATIO N...................................................................... 0 471 1 ,5 2 5 384 143 0 768 2 ,0 7 2 951 220 0 1 ,4 7 3 3 ,6 4 6 2 ,3 5 2 4 29 0 1 ,8 2 2 4 ,5 7 7 2 ,9 7 0 5 28 0 .0 0 1 .4 8 3 .9 9 1 .8 3 0 .4 2 0 .0 0 1 .3 8 3 .4 7 2 .2 5 0 .4 0 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. CO M M UNICATION S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................ E LE C T R IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... HATER AND S A N ITA R Y S E R V IC E S .................................................. 45 28 23 9 2 203 28 32 18 4 6 06 59 67 84 8 849 72 83 1 04 10 0 .3 9 0 .0 5 0 .0 6 0 .0 3 0 .0 1 0 .6 4 0 .0 5 0 .0 6 0 .0 8 0 .0 1 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE TR A D E ................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................ F IN A N C E ......................................................................................................... IN S U R A N C E .................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED D W ELLIN G S ........................................................... 1 ,7 1 3 1 14 9 32 0 2 ,9 1 0 1 98 17 55 0 5 ,3 8 6 438 42 109 0 6 ,6 4 8 559 61 151 0 5 .6 1 0 .3 8 0 .0 3 0 .1 1 0 .0 0 5 .0 4 0 .4 2 0 .0 5 0 .1 1 0 .0 0 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. OTHER REAL E S T A T E .............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S ........................................................ OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS B USIN ESS S E R V IC E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS IN G .............................................................................................. 420 236 4 29 16 730 388 43 89 39 1 ,4 3 9 783 101 286 126 1 ,7 7 1 973 127 4 04 136 1 .4 1 0 .7 5 0 .0 8 0 -1 7 0 .0 8 1 .3 4 0 .7 4 0 .1 0 0 .3 1 0 .1 4 114. 115. 116. 117. 118. MISCELLANEOUS PRO FESSION AL S E R V IC E S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR ............................................................................. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH S ER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 1 53 1 313 96 3 224 2 284 1 58 6 446 8 328 311 17 549 6 331 383 17 0 .4 3 0 .0 0 0 .5 5 0 .3 0 0 .0 1 0 .4 2 0 .0 0 0 .2 5 0 .2 9 0 .0 1 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. H O S P IT A L S ................................................................................................... EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S ..................................................................... NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S .............................................................. POST O F F IC E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY C R E D IT CO RPO RATIO N............................................... 0 32 0 26 0 0 63 0 23 0 0 1 26 0 50 0 0 1 55 0 63 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 4 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 124. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S .................... D IR E C TLY ALLOCATED IM P O R TS ..................................................... TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................ BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............ 65 0 -1 2 ,3 2 0 -1 4 ,3 1 8 0 85 0 -2 0 ,9 0 3 -2 7 ,9 0 3 0 1 26 0 -4 1 ,8 9 4 - 5 5 ,1 9 6 0 134 0 -4 8 ,1 2 5 -7 6 ,6 0 0 0 0 .1 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ................................................................................... SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.................................... GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 0 370 0 4 ,8 2 8 1 0 456 0 8 ,1 9 9 2 0 1 ,2 4 0 0 1 8 ,0 0 0 0 0 1 ,6 8 0 0 2 6 ,7 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .8 8 0 .0 0 1 5 .7 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 .2 7 0 .0 0 2 0 .2 4 0 .0 0 134. INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N A DJUSTM ENT.......................................... T O T A L ............................................................................................................... 0 5 ,7 2 6 0 3 ,1 0 4 0 6 ,3 0 0 0 7 ,2 0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 17 7 TABLE B-12: INDDSTEIAL COHPOSITION OF FEDEBAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 (PRODUCERS' VALUE IN BILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) IN D D S T E I CODE 1970 1963 1980 1985 PERCENT D1 S T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 1. 2. 3. it . 5. L IV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER AG RICULTURAL PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ............................................................... A G R IC U LTU R E , FORESTRY, AND FISHER Y S E R V IC E S ... IRO N ORE H IR IN G .................................................................................. 5 544 -1 7 1 17 9 87 -1 5 6 -3 9 1 8 -1 3 71 42 -5 4 2 6 0 75 44 -5 8 6 7 0 0 .1 3 -0 .2 2 -0 .5 6 0 .0 1 -0 .0 2 0 .0 8 0 .0 5 -0 .6 6 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE H IK IN G ............................................................................. OTHER NONFERRODS HETAL ORE H IR IN G .................................. COAL H IR IN G ............................................................................................. CRUDE PETROLEUH.................................................................................. STONE AND CLAY H IN IN G AND QUARRYING............................ 0 242 35 0 3 0 49 48 0 -1 0 0 81 55 0 0 0 93 56 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 7 0 .0 7 0 .0 0 -0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .1 0 0 .0 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. C H E H IC A L AND F E R T IL IZ E R H IN IN G ......................................... NEB R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION...................... NEB N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CONSTRUCTION.............. NEB P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION.................................. NEB HIGHBAY CO NSTRUCTION.......................................................... 0 1 37 1 ,0 8 9 0 1 83 0 75 565 0 1 72 0 87 1 ,8 7 9 80 281 0 107 2 ,2 8 3 100 3 06 0 .0 0 0 .1 1 0 .8 1 0 .0 0 0 .2 5 0 .0 0 0 .1 2 2 .5 6 0 .1 1 0 .3 4 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A LL OTHER NEB CO NSTRUCTION.................................................... HAINTENANCE AND R E P AIR CONSTRUCTION............................ GUIDED H IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC LE S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE..................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS........................................................................................ 2 ,6 0 1 1 ,4 1 4 4 ,0 0 5 1 ,2 9 4 531 1 ,4 4 6 1 ,2 0 5 3 ,0 7 3 3 ,2 5 4 1 ,0 7 0 3 ,0 6 4 1 ,4 6 3 3 ,7 5 7 2 ,0 9 1 1 ,2 5 9 3 ,6 5 8 1 ,6 7 7 4 ,5 1 4 2 ,3 6 0 1 ,4 2 6 2 .0 8 1 .7 4 4 .4 3 4 .6 9 1 .5 4 4 .1 1 1 .8 8 5 .0 7 2 .6 5 1 .6 0 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO HANUFACTDRING .................................................................. F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD H I L L S .......................................... HISCELLANEO US T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S .... HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS............................................................... A PP A R E L......................................................................................................... 0 47 12 0 69 0 71 22 13 153 0 61 29 10 1 83 0 64 32 11 214 0 .0 0 0 .1 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 2 0 .2 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 7 0 .0 4 0 .0 1 0 .2 4 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. HISCELLANEO US FA B R IC ATE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............ LO G G IN G , S A B H I L IS , AND PLANING H IL L S .......................... H IL L B O R K , PLYBOCD, AND OTHER BCOD PRODUCTS____ HOUSEHOLD F U R N ITU R E ........................................................................ OTHER F U R N IT U R E ................................................................................... 69 0 11 17 42 61 0 18 25 73 73 0 23 42 161 80 0 26 49 185 0 .0 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 4 0 .1 1 0 .0 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 6 0 .2 1 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS..................................................................................... PAPERBOARD................................................................................................ P U B L IS H IN G ................................................................................................ P R IN T IN G ...................................................................................................... C H E H IC A L PRODUCTS............................................................................. 47 11 16 101 1 ,0 2 6 84 21 -5 -1 0 1 ,0 5 4 146 24 -3 8 -5 6 1 ,4 8 9 1 65 27 -4 3 -7 5 1 ,6 2 0 0 .1 2 0 .0 3 -0 .0 1 -0 .0 1 1 .5 2 0 .1 9 0 .0 3 -0 .0 5 -0 .0 8 1 .8 2 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. A G R IC ULTURAL C H E H IC A L S ............................................................... P L A S T IC H A T E R IA L S AND S YN TH E TIC RUBBER.................... S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S ................................................................................ DRUGS.............................................................................................................. CLE AN IN G AND T O IL E T PRE PA RA TIO NS .................................... 10 24 18 48 25 20 7 5 1 39 37 40 8 6 305 46 46 10 8 3 59 50 0 .0 3 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .2 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 5 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .4 0 0 .0 6 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. P A IN T .............................................................................................................. PETROLEUH PRODUCTS.......................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................................................................. P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................ LEA TH E R , FO OTBEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 3 712 141 30 5 4 1 ,1 2 9 130 25 57 6 1 ,4 0 8 1 42 34 42 9 1 ,5 5 8 165 40 45 0 .0 1 1 .6 3 0 .1 9 0 .0 4 0 .0 8 0 .0 1 1 .7 5 0 .1 9 0 .0 4 0 .0 5 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. G LASS.............................................................................................................. CEHENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................ HISCELLANEO US STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRO N AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... 13 0 23 41 4 14 0 15 49 17 27 0 26 51 17 31 0 28 53 21 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 7 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 6 0 .0 2 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIHARY COPPER HE TA LS .................................................................. PRIHABY A L U H IN U H ................................................................................ OTHER P RIHARY AND SECONDARY NONFERRODS H E T A L .. COPPER B O LLIN G AND D RA K ING ..................................................... ALUHINUH R O LLIN G AND DRAHING ............................................... 7 2 -4 0 18 27 0 216 11 28 57 0 452 19 25 65 0 519 21 26 0 .0 4 0 .0 0 0 .3 1 0 .0 2 0 .0 4 0 .0 7 0 .0 0 0 .5 8 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS B O LLIN G AND DRABING .......................... HISCELLANEO US NCNFERRODS HETAL PRODUCTS................. HETAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................ HEATING APPARATUS AND PLU HBING F IX T U R E S ................. FA B R IC ATE D STRUCTURAL HE TA L.................................................. -4 7 14 7 4 54 -2 9 23 9 7 76 25 62 7 17 158 26 72 9 27 215 -0 .0 4 0 .0 3 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 1 0 .0 3 0 .0 8 0 .0 1 0 .0 3 0 .2 4 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREB HA CHINE PRODUCTS............................................................... OTHER F A B R IC A TE D HETAL PRODUCTS....................................... E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARH H A C H IN E R Y ..................................................................................... CO NSTRUCTION, H IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D H A C H IN E R Y .. 27 40 179 11 1 05 31 78 216 5 86 39 1 26 333 7 117 42 1 64 4 50 7 1 20 0 .0 4 0 .1 1 0 .3 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 2 0 .0 5 0 .1 8 0 .5 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 3 66. 67. 68. H A T E R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP H E N T.................................................. HETALBORKING HA C H IN E R Y ............................................................... S P E C IA L INDUSTRY HACHINERY..................................................... 70 85 17 94 65 36 1 97 66 54 323 69 62 0 .1 4 0 .0 9 0 .0 5 0 .3 6 0 .0 8 0 .0 7 17 8 I ABLE B-12: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OP FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 — CONTINUED (PRODUCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) IN D U S TR Y CODE 1963 1970 1980 1985 PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... COMPUTERS AND PER IP H E R A L E Q U IP M E N T............................... TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E M ACHINES....................... S ER VICE IN D U S TR Y M ACHINES........................................................ 236 49 389 59 47 1 36 43 506 38 50 187 82 1 ,3 8 5 57 66 201 113 2 ,0 3 8 65 69 0 .2 0 0 .0 6 0 .7 3 0 .0 5 0 .0 7 0 .2 3 0 .1 3 2 .2 9 0 .0 7 0 .0 8 74. 75. 76. 77. 78. E LE C TR IC T R A N S M IS SIO N E Q U IP M E N T....................................... E LE C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L A PPARATUS....................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ...................................................................... E LE C TR IC L IG H T IN G AND H IR IN G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E TS ........................................................ 229 1 95 10 13 63 1 56 1 98 14 28 61 2 67 382 30 47 127 363 489 41 55 170 0 .2 2 0 .2 9 0 .0 2 0 .0 4 0 .0 9 0 .4 1 0 .5 5 0 .0 5 0 .0 6 0 .1 9 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER E LE C TR O N IC COMMUNICATION E Q U IPM ENT.............. ELECTR ON IC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER E L E C T R IC A L MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... 136 4 ,4 8 7 398 109 663 72 4 ,3 4 6 328 82 735 169 6 ,2 9 9 590 101 1 ,0 7 0 212 7 ,6 0 2 713 1 29 1 ,2 6 7 0 .1 0 6 .2 6 0 .4 7 0 .1 2 1 .0 6 0 .2 4 8 .5 4 0 .8 0 0 .1 4 1 .4 2 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A F T ...................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR .................................. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ... MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQ U IPM ENT.................... S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS.................... 7 ,5 3 2 1 ,1 1 7 6 1 3 56 7 ,2 3 6 9 31 3 10 3 11 6 ,9 3 6 2 ,8 8 6 4 11 4 14 7 ,4 7 3 2 ,4 3 0 5 13 4 97 1 0 .4 3 1 .3 4 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .4 5 8 .3 9 2 .7 3 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .5 6 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUM ENTS .......................................... O P T IC A L AND OPHTBALM IC E Q U IP M E N T.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPOR TATIO N............................................................. 49 18 130 8 339 76 63 213 11 397 121 62 335 15 5 25 1 39 70 3 77 18 594 0 .1 1 0 .0 9 0 .3 1 0 .0 2 0 .5 7 0 .1 6 0 .0 8 0 .4 2 0 .0 2 0 .6 7 94. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y EUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPO R TATIO N...................................................................... HATER TRA N S P O R TATIO N ..................................................................... A IR TRA N S P O R TATIO N ........................................................................... OTHER TR A N S P O R TATIO N ..................................................................... 14 929 273 397 14 32 693 702 746 28 41 920 481 1 ,0 3 9 32 45 1 ,0 6 1 4 88 1 ,1 3 9 35 0 .0 5 1 .0 0 1 .0 1 1 .0 8 0 .0 4 0 .0 5 1 .1 9 0 .5 5 1 .2 8 0 .0 4 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. CO M M UNICATIO N S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................ E LE C TR IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... HATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S .................................................. 3 41 0 191 46 26 5 92 0 52 85 59 6 57 0 -1 1 4 129 69 723 0 -1 0 1 146 81 0 .8 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 7 0 .1 2 0 .0 9 0 .8 1 0 .0 0 -0 .1 1 0 .1 6 0 .0 9 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE T R A D E ................................................................................... R E T A IL TR A D E ........................................................................................... F IN A N C E ......................................................................................................... IN S U R A N C E ......................................... .......................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED DW ELLIN G S..................................................... . . 775 -1 7 15 22 0 1 ,1 6 5 8 33 17 0 1 ,6 5 6 17 70 35 0 2 ,0 1 8 19 80 40 0 1 .6 8 0 .0 1 0 .0 5 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 2 .2 7 0 .0 2 0 .0 9 0 .0 4 0 .0 0 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. OTHER REAL E S T A T E .............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING P LACES........................................................ OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSIN ESS S E R V IC E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS IN G .............................................................................................. 1 62 3 49 14 1 ,6 5 2 1 226 5 32 48 1 ,3 9 6 0 441 7 24 76 1 ,8 9 4 0 5 05 8 03 93 2 ,3 4 2 0 0 .3 3 0 .7 7 0 .0 7 2 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .5 7 0 .9 0 0 .1 0 2 .6 3 0 .0 0 114. 115. 116. 117. 118. MISCELLANEOUS PBO PESSIO NAL S E R V IC E S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR .............................................................................. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH S ER V IC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 3 27 21 54 54 73 367 33 88 74 1 62 5 66 43 91 57 226 7 84 55 1 00 59 275 0 .5 3 0 .0 5 0 .1 3 0 .1 1 0 .2 3 0 .8 8 0 .0 6 0 .1 1 0 .0 7 0 .3 1 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC B S ...................................................................... NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S ............................................................. POST O F F IC E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY C R E D IT CORPORATION............................................... 86 8 36 420 1 13 0 169 678 549 172 0 263 1 ,2 3 8 731 2 24 0 338 1 ,6 1 8 8 53 240 0 0 .2 4 0 .9 8 0 .7 9 0 .2 5 0 .0 0 0 .3 8 1 .8 2 0 .9 6 0 .2 7 0 .0 0 124. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL E N TE R P R IS E S ....................................................... STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S .................... D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS ..................................................... TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................ B USIN ESS T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............ 2 1 98 2 ,6 4 9 0 0 12 444 3 ,6 7 2 0 0 13 912 5 ,5 9 7 0 0 17 1 ,1 4 6 6 ,5 6 6 0 0 0 .0 2 0 .6 4 5 .2 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 1 .2 9 7 .3 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ................................................................................... S CRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.................................... GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 1 42 -5 4 2 4 ,4 4 9 -6 4 3 0 254 0 2 7 ,2 1 9 -1 ,6 4 5 0 4 30 0 2 2 ,2 2 4 -2 ,6 0 0 0 468 0 2 2 ,2 9 6 -3 ,5 5 0 0 0 .3 7 0 .0 0 3 9 .2 2 -2 .3 7 0 .0 0 0 .5 3 0 .0 0 2 5 .0 4 -3 .9 9 0 .0 0 134. INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N ADJUSTM ENT.......................................... T O T A L ............................................................................................................... 0 6 5 ,6 6 2 0 6 9 ,3 9 5 0 8 0 ,0 9 0 0 8 9 ,0 4 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 17 9 TABLE B-13: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF FBDERAL DEFENSE PURCHASES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 (PRODUCERS' VALUE IN BILLICNS OF 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE 1963 1970 1980 1985 PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. L IV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER AGR IC ULTURAL PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................ A G R IC U L T U R E , FORESTRY, AND FIS HER Y S E R V IC E S ... IR O N ORE M IN IN G ................................................................................... 2 3 1 17 15 80 60 2 8 0 56 42 2 6 0 58 44 2 7 0 0 .1 5 0 .1 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .1 0 0 .0 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE M IN IN G ............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G .................................. COAL M IN IN G .............................................................................................. CRUDE PETROLEUM................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND QUARRYING............................ 0 236 31 0 7 0 38 38 0 0 0 58 35 0 0 0 67 33 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 7 0 .0 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 1 0 .0 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. C H E M IC A L AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G .......................................... NEH R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION....................... NEW N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION.............. NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION.................................. NEH HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TION.......................................................... 0 137 467 0 4 0 75 377 0 4 0 87 746 80 6 0 1 07 996 100 6 0 .0 0 0 .1 4 0 .7 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .1 8 1 .6 9 0 .1 7 0 .0 1 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A L L OTHER NEH CO NSTRUC TION..................................................... M AINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CONSTRUCTION............................ G U ID E D M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... 1 ,1 6 8 943 2 ,7 9 4 1 ,2 7 6 1 67 477 631 2 ,1 3 1 3 ,2 4 2 728 511 831 2 ,9 0 7 2 ,0 6 8 575 711 951 3 ,5 3 7 2 ,3 3 2 5 87 0 .8 8 1 .1 6 3 .9 3 5 .9 8 1 .3 4 1 .2 0 1 .6 1 5 .9 9 3 .9 5 0 .9 9 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO M ANUFACTURING ................................................................... F A B R IC , Y AR N, AMD THREAD M IL L S .......................................... MISCELLANEOU S T E X T IL E S AND FLOCR C O VER IN G S____ HO SIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................ A PP A R E L.......................................................................................................... 0 32 9 0 45 0 70 15 13 97 0 60 14 10 68 0 63 15 11 70 0 .0 0 0 .1 3 0 .0 3 0 .0 2 0 .1 8 0 .0 0 0 .1 1 0 .0 3 0 .0 2 0 .1 2 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. M ISCELLANEO U S FA B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............ L O G G IN G , S A H M IL L S , AND P LA N IN G H IL L S .......................... H IL LW O R K , PLYWOOD, AND OTHER HCOD PRODUCTS____ HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................ OTHER F U R N IT U R E ................................................................................... 63 0 9 9 17 48 0 13 9 14 45 0 13 9 14 46 0 15 11 16 0 .0 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 0 .0 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 2 0 .0 3 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD................................................................................................. P U B L IS H IN G ................................................................................................. P R IN T IN G ....................................................................................................... C H E M IC A L PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 22 9 38 1 59 963 26 17 44 114 993 25 17 64 214 1 ,3 7 1 26 19 74 234 1 ,4 8 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 3 0 .0 8 0 .2 1 1 .8 3 0 .0 4 0 .0 3 0 .1 3 0 .4 0 2 .5 1 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. A G R IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ................................................................ P L A S T IC H A T E R IA IS AND S Y N TH E TIC RUBBER.................... S Y N T H E T IC F IB E R S ................................................................................ DRUGS............................................................................................................... C LE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S .................................... 2 24 18 15 20 2 7 5 63 24 2 8 6 59 22 2 10 8 61 23 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .1 2 0 .0 4 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .0 1 0 .1 0 0 .0 4 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. P A IN T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS................................................................................... P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................ L E A T H E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 2 660 135 26 4 2 1 ,0 5 1 1 19 16 55 3 1 ,2 4 6 119 16 39 5 1 ,3 4 7 1 39 19 41 0 .0 0 1 .9 4 0 .2 2 0 .0 3 0 .1 0 0 .0 1 2 .2 8 0 .2 4 0 .0 3 0 .0 7 46. 48. 49. 50. G LA S S ............................................................................................................... CEMENT, , A ND C O N C R E T E P F O D U C T S ................................... MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... B LAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRO N AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... 8 0 27 40 4 4 0 25 46 11 6 0 26 46 5 7 0 28 47 7 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 8 0 .0 2 0 .0 1 0 -0 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 8 0 .0 1 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS................................................................... PRIMARY A LU M IN U M ................................................................................ OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NCNFEP.HOUS M E T A L .. COPPER R O L LIN G AND DRAW ING..................................................... ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING............................................... -5 2 -3 0 0 17 0 0 3 4 27 0 0 3 4 24 0 0 5 4 25 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 4 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS B O LLIN G AND DRAWING.......................... MISCELLANEOU S NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS................. METAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................ H EATIN G APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S ................. F A B R IC A TE D STRUCTURAL M E TA L.................................................. 70 13 7 4 48 25 7 9 7 67 24 6 7 17 147 25 7 9 27 2 02 0 .0 5 0 .0 1 0 .0 2 0 .0 1 0 .1 2 0 .0 4 0 .0 1 0 .0 2 0 .0 5 0 .3 4 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER FA B R IC A T E D METAL PRODUCTS....................................... E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARM MACHINERY.................................... ................................................. CO NSTRUC TIO N , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y .. 22 29 1 57 10 99 22 49 1 79 4 84 22 69 258 4 114 23 99 363 4 1 16 0 .0 4 0 .0 9 0 .3 3 0 .0 1 0 .1 5 0 .0 4 0 .1 7 0 .6 1 0 .0 1 0 .2 0 66. 67. 68. M A TE R IA L HANDLING EQ U IP M E NT.................................................. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ S P E C IA L IN D U S TR Y MACHINERY..................................................... 64 67 10 90 57 18 190 55 18 315 57 20 0 .1 7 0 .1 1 0 .0 3 0 .5 3 0 .1 0 0 .0 3 47. CA LY 18 0 TABLE B - 1 3 : ( PgODUCERS' IN D U S T R IA L C O H P O S ITIO N OF FEDERAL DEFENSE PURCHASES, VALUE B IL L IO N S OF 1 9 6 3 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE 1963, 1970, AND PROJ3JCTBD m « M H) 1 9 8 5 — CO B T IN OED u # u tu 1963 1970 1980 1985 PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N 1970 1985 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L H A CHINE RY ............................................... HACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS.................................................................. COMPUTERS AND P ER IP H E R A L EQ U IP M E NT............................... TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E H A C H IN E S ....................... SER VIC E INDUSTRY H A C H IN E S ........................................................ 220 98 317 19 99 121 92 260 22 99 1 60 80 666 90 59 170 110 9 16 95 55 0 .2 2 0 .0 8 0 .9 8 0 .0 9 0 .0 8 0 .2 9 0 .1 9 1 .5 5 0 .0 8 0 .0 9 79. 75. 76. 77. 78. E LE C T R IC T R A N S H IS S IO N E Q U IP H E N T ....................................... E L E C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS....................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ..................................................................... E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND H IR IN G ................................................ RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E TS ........................................................ 1 97 1 79 8 13 39 1 92 151 10 20 52 297 296 23 30 72 390 391 33 35 92 0 .2 6 0 .2 8 0 .0 2 0 .0 9 0 .1 0 0 .5 8 0 .6 6 0 .0 6 0 .0 6 0 .1 6 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELECTR O N IC C CH HUNICATIO N E Q U IP H E N T .............. ELECTR ON IC COHPONBNTS.................................................................. OTHER E L E C T R IC A L HA CHINE RY ..................................................... HOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... 126 9 ,1 2 5 361 96 615 69 3 ,5 2 6 293 79 6 11 159 9 ,6 8 6 5 30 88 811 199 5 ,9 5 6 690 1 13 8 98 0 .1 2 6 .5 0 0 .5 9 0 .1 9 1 .1 3 0 .3 3 9 .2 9 1 .0 8 0 .1 9 1 .5 2 89. 85. 86. 87. 88. A IR C R A F T ...................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR .................................. R A ILR O A D AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP H E N T ... HISCELLANEO US TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP H E N T.................... S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING IN S TR O H E N TS .................... 6 ,7 7 2 979 5 1 287 6 ,8 1 2 879 2 9 212 6 ,5 1 2 2 ,7 7 9 2 9 295 6 ,9 5 5 2 ,2 9 3 3 11 395 1 2 .5 7 1 .6 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 2 0 .3 9 1 1 .7 8 3 .8 8 0 .0 1 0 .0 2 0 .5 8 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. HEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U H E N T S .......................................... O P T IC A L AND O PH THALH IC E Q U IP H E N T.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPHENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................ HISCELLANEO US HANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ R AILR O AD TRA N S P O R TATIO N ............................................................. 30 10 89 10 1 50 98 91 1 66 15 3 31 68 31 296 15 390 78 39 275 18 9 38 0 .0 9 0 .0 8 0 .3 1 0 .0 3 0 .6 1 0 .1 3 0 .0 6 0 .9 7 0 .0 3 0 .7 9 99. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRA NS P O R TATIO N..................................................................... HATER TRA NS P O R TATIO N..................................................................... A IR TR A N S P O R TATIO N ........................................................................... OTHER TRA NS P O R TATIO N..................................................................... 11 397 265 333 13 25 579 695 608 26 27 676 970 758 28 29 750 975 768 30 0 .0 5 1 .0 6 1 .2 8 1 .1 2 0 .0 5 0 .0 5 1 .2 7 0 .8 0 1 .3 0 0 .0 5 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. C O H H U N IC A TIO N S , E IC E P T R A DIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................ E LE C T R IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... HATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S .................................................. 3 01 0 313 35 20 928 0 3 03 37 38 378 0 271 29 28 396 0 2 90 31 33 0 .7 9 0 .0 0 0 .5 6 0 .0 7 0 .0 7 0 .6 7 0 .0 0 0 .9 9 0 .0 5 0 .0 6 109. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE TRADE................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................ F IN A N C E ......................................................................................................... IN S U R A N C E .................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED D W ELLIN G S .......................................................... 629 -2 1 0 19 0 803 0 0 0 0 955 0 0 0 0 1 ,0 6 5 0 0 0 0 1 .9 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 .8 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 109. 1 10. 111. 112. 113. OTHER REAL E S T A T E .............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S ....................................................... OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................. HISCELLANEO US BUS IN ES S S E R V IC E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS IN G .............................................................................................. 75 267 1 1 ,9 0 9 1 16 351 20 997 0 16 351 20 1 ,0 0 0 0 19 356 23 1 ,2 9 7 0 0 .0 3 0 .6 5 0 .0 9 1 .7 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .6 0 0 .0 9 2 .1 1 0 .0 0 119. 115. 116. 117. 118. HISCELLANEO US PRO FESSIONAL S E R V IC E S ............................ AUTO HO BILE R E P A IR ............................................................................. HOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AHUSEHENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SER VIC E S E IC E P T H O S P IT A L S .................................... 209 16 99 61 39 259 23 75 90 73 910 23 75 90 93 60 9 30 82 97 95 0 .9 7 0 .0 9 0 .1 9 0 .1 7 0 .1 3 1 .0 2 0 .0 5 0 .1 9 0 .1 6 0 .0 8 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S ..................................................................... NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S ............................................................. POST O F F IC E .............................................................................................. COHHODITY C R E D IT CO RPORATION............................................... 90 933 3 91 92 0 69 191 330 139 0 99 3 01 981 154 0 95 381 5 97 1 60 0 0 .1 2 0 .3 5 0 .6 1 0 .2 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 8 0 .6 5 0 .9 3 0 .2 7 0 .0 0 129. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNHENT E N TE R P R IS E S .................... D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IH P O B T S ..................................................... TRANSFERRED IH P O R T S ........................................................................ B U S IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN H E N T, AND G IF T S ............ 2 12 1 ,9 9 5 0 0 3 18 2 ,9 3 5 0 0 3 18 2 ,9 9 9 0 0 5 21 2 ,6 9 0 0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 3 9 .9 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 9 9 .5 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ................................................................................... SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.................................... GOVERNHENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 83 -1 7 2 1 8 ,5 0 1 0 0 117 0 2 0 ,1 3 7 0 0 132 0 1 9 ,1 9 2 0 0 138 0 1 9 ,0 9 2 0 0 0 .2 2 0 .0 0 3 7 .1 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .2 3 0 .0 0 2 3 .8 6 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 139. INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N AD JU S TH E N T.......................................... T O T A L ............................................................................................................... 0 5 0 ,6 9 1 0 5 9 ,2 0 8 0 5 9 ,2 0 0 0 5 9 ,0 5 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 0 0 .0 0 18 1 TABLE B-19: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 (PRODUCERS* VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS) IN D U S TR Y CODE 1963 1970 1980 1985 1970 . STR I B U T I O N 1985 12 88 3 -3 3 0 27 189 6 -7 0 0 68 9 70 19 -1 2 2 0 87 629 22 -1 3 9 0 0 .0 3 0 .2 2 0 .0 1 -0 .0 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .3 5 0 .0 1 -0 .0 8 0 .0 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE M IN IN G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G .................................. COAL M IN IN G ............................................................................................... CRUDE PETROLEUM................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND CUARR YING............................ 0 0 19 0 -3 0 0 0 36 0 -6 3 0 0 73 0 -9 7 0 0 85 0 -1 2 6 C .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 9 0 .0 0 -0 .0 7 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 0 -0 .0 7 11. 12. 13. 19. 15. C H E M IC A L AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G .......................................... NEB R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUCTION....................... NEB NON R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION.............. NEB P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUC TION.................................. NEB HIGHHAY CO NSTRUC TIO N........................................................... 29 725 9 ,8 3 0 2 ,5 0 2 6 ,7 5 8 51 1 ,1 9 9 6 ,0 2 9 2 ,6 5 9 6 ,9 7 2 109 1 ,8 9 1 8 ,9 0 0 7 ,5 0 0 7 ,5 0 0 1 98 2 ,3 5 0 1 0 ,2 0 0 9 ,2 0 0 8 ,0 5 0 0 .0 6 1 .9 1 7 .0 8 3 .1 2 7 .6 0 0 .0 8 1 .3 1 5 .6 7 5 .1 2 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. A L L OTHER NEB CO NSTRUC TION..................................................... MAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CONSTRUCTION............................ G UIDED M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... 591 3 ,5 1 0 0 2 987 732 0 5 950 1 ,8 0 0 7 ,7 8 9 0 11 1 ,6 8 9 2 ,8 0 0 1 0 ,1 6 7 0 15 2 ,1 6 1 0 .8 6 5 .6 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 1 .1 2 1 .5 6 5 .6 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 1 .2 0 21. 22. 23. 29. 25. TOBACCO M ANUFACTURING ................................................................... F A B R IC , Y AR N, AND THFEAD M I L L S .......................................... MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S .... HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................ A P P A R E L.......................................................................................•.................. 1 19 0 0 76 2 29 0 0 1 50 9 86 18 0 995 6 111 29 0 589 0 .0 0 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .1 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 6 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .3 2 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. MISCELLANEOU S F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............ LO G G ING , S A N H IL L S , AND P LA N IN G M IL L S .......................... M IL L B O R K , PLYBOOD, AND OTHER BCOD PRODUCTS____ HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................ OTHER F U R N IT U R E ................................................................................... 8 0 9 18 205 17 0 7 97 997 39 0 19 93 8 19 95 0 25 106 911 0 .0 2 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 6 0 .5 3 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 0 .0 6 0 .5 1 31. 32. 33. 39. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................. P U B L IS H IN G ................................................................................................. P R IN T IN G ....................................................................................................... C HEM ICAL PRODUCTS.............................................................................. 95 59 289 1 62 1 29 100 139 672 358 900 251 2 59 1 ,1 9 0 655 1 ,2 0 7 329 317 1 ,2 5 1 8 73 1 ,5 8 9 0 .1 2 0 .1 6 0 .7 9 0 .9 2 0 .9 7 0 .1 8 0 .1 8 0 .7 0 0 .9 9 0 .8 8 36. 37. 38. 39. 90. A G R IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ................................................................ P L A S T IC M A T E R IA L S AND S Y N TH E TIC RUBBER.................... S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S ................................................................................. DRUGS................................................................................................................ C LE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E P A R A TIO N S .................................... 77 0 0 292 1 12 171 0 0 969 298 520 0 0 2 ,0 9 7 772 685 0 0 2 ,6 7 3 8 87 0 .2 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .5 5 0 .3 5 0 .3 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 1 .9 9 0 .9 9 91. 92. 93. 99. 95. P A IN T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................................................................... P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................. LE A TH E R , FO O TBEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. 3 301 66 36 1 7 659 191 72 2 17 1 ,6 7 2 3 03 229 9 21 2 ,0 1 2 399 299 6 0 .0 1 0 .7 7 0 .1 7 0 .0 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 1 1 .1 2 0 .2 2 0 .1 7 0 .0 0 96. 97. 98. 99. 50. G LA S S ............................................................................................................... CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................ M ISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRO N AND STEEL FO UNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... 33 0 13 3 0 80 0 39 6 0 187 0 63 13 0 228 0 71 18 0 0 .0 9 0 .0 0 0 .0 9 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 0 .1 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 9 0 .0 1 0 .0 0 51. 52. 53. 59. 55. PRIMARY COPPER M E TA LS ................................................................... PRIMARY ALU M INUM ................................................................................. OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L .. COPPER R O LLIN G AND D R A B IN G ..................................................... ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS R O LLIN G AND D RA B ING .......................... MISCELLANEOUS BCNFERBOUS METAL PRODUCTS................. METAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUM BING F IX T U R E S ................. FA B R IC ATE D STRUCTURAL M E TA L.................................................. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 61. 62. 63. 69. 65. SCREB M ACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER F A B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS....................................... E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARM M ACHINERY...................................................................................... CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y .. 11 8 0 16 33 32 22 0 39 70 58 1 29 0 76 1 52 63 1 96 0 87 207 0 .0 9 0 .0 3 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .0 8 0 .0 9 0 .0 8 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .1 2 66. 67. 68. M A T E R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP M E N T....................................... .. METALBORKING M A C H IN E R Y ................................................................ S P E C IA L INDUS TRY MACHINERY..................................................... 1 23 6 9 57 20 32 1 29 97 37 160 55 0 .0 0 0 .0 7 0 .0 2 0 .0 2 0 .0 9 0 .0 3 18 2 & CD ■C L IV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER A G R IC U LTU R A L PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ....................................... ........................ A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RBSTEY, AND FIS H E R Y S E R V IC E S ... IRO N ORE M IN IN G .................................................................................... 00 1. 2. 3. 9. 5. r»6te B-1*; DBCERS* m # S C O M P O S IT fC ^ OF 'STATE AST) LOCAL GOVER1HIENT "PURCHASES. Z » M Y . X I O N S -OF 196 3 DOLL A RS-) ' — 1-------------------------INDUSTRY CODE 196 3 1 97 0 1 9 0 , TT, 70 | AND PROJECTED 19 8 0 I ---------------------------- r | 198 0 1985 AND 1 9 8 5 — CONTINUED PERCENT 197 0 DISTRIBUTION 198 5 69. 70. 71. 72. 73. GENERAL IN D U S T R I A L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT............................... TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES....................... SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................ 12 83 80 70 73 26 116 107 181 185 60 201 1 ,133 5 15 5 05 81 22 8 1 ,5 5 8 63 3 59 3 0 .0 3 0.1 8 0 .1 3 0.2 1 0 .2 2 0.0 5 0 .1 2 0 .8 6 0 .3 5 0.3 3 78. 75. 76. 77. 78. ELECT RIC TRA NSMISSION EQUIPMENT....................................... ELE CTR ICA L I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................... HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA NC ES ..................................................................... ELE CTR IC L IG H T I N G AND H I R I N G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ET S ........................................................ 31 29 18 55 15 68 69 33 136 38 3 25 26 5 82 23 8 99 833 3 33 102 302 122 0 .0 8 0 .0 8 0.0 8 0.1 6 0.0 8 0.2 8 0.1 9 0.0 6 0.1 7 0 .0 7 79. 80. 81. 82. 83. TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT.............. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER ELE CT R IC AL MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... 0 102 5 18 6 85 0 2 13 18 26 1 ,8 5 8 0 615 38 75 2 ,7 5 8 0 800 86 101 3,5 7 8 0 .0 0 0 .2 5 0 .0 2 0.0 3 1.7 1 0 .0 0 0 .8 8 0.0 3 0.0 6 1 .9 9 88. 85. 8b. 87. 88. A IR C R A FT ....................................................................................................... SH IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R .................................. RAILROAD AND OTBER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . . MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT................... S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................... 0 10 21 0 57 0 20 44 0 137 30 59 52 5 0 3 22 35 70 6 25 0 380 0 .0 0 C.02 0 .0 5 0.0 0 0.1 6 0 .0 2 0.0 8 0.3 5 0 .0 0 0 .2 1 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. MEDICAL AND DENTAL INSTRUMENTS.......................................... OPT ICAL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT.................................... PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION............................................................. 61 8 56 102 82 120 22 127 262 186 8 38 82 58 0 898 81 8 689 98 682 578 568 0 .1 8 0 .0 3 0.1 5 0.3 1 0 .1 7 0.3 6 0 .0 5 0.3 8 0.3 2 0.3 1 98. 95. 96. 97. 98. LOCAL TR A NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y EDS....................................... TRUCK TRA NSPORTATION..................................................................... WATER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... A I R TRANSPORTATION........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... 360 116 13 107 6 775 266 30 232 18 988 6 05 68 787 31 1,1 2 2 7 66 80 1,0 3 2 38 0 .9 1 0 .3 1 0.0 8 0 .2 7 0.0 2 0 .6 2 0.8 3 0.0 8 0 .5 7 0 .0 2 99. 100. 1 01. 102. 103. COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING....................................................... ELE CTRIC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... WATER AND SANITARY S E R VI C E S .................................................. 388 17 7 98 137 -7 8 755 86 1 ,9 8 9 385 -8 1 2 ,6 8 9 81 8 ,3 6 9 703 -837 3 ,8 6 2 86 5 ,2 8 7 82 9 -5 8 2 0 .8 9 0 .0 5 2 .2 9 0.8 1 -0 .1 0 1.9 3 0.0 5 2.9 2 0.8 6 -0 .3 0 108. 105. 106. 107. 108. WHOLESALE TRADE................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE........................................................................................... FI N A N C E ......................................................................................................... INSURANCE.................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS .......................................................... 857 -383 118 151 0 1 ,2 3 6 -771 289 365 0 2,8 8 3 -1 ,11 1 781 7 78 0 3 ,3 2 3 -1 ,1 2 8 933 998 0 1 .8 5 -0 .9 1 0 .2 9 0 .8 3 0.0 0 1.8 5 -0 .6 3 0.5 2 0.5 5 0 .0 0 109. 110. 111. 112. 113. OTHER REAL E S T A T E . . ........................................................................ HOTELS AND LODGING PLA CES........................................................ OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI CE S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R V I C E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS I N G .............................................................................................. 879 117 87 732 32 1 ,032 191 104 1 ,6 8 2 68 2 ,8 5 7 853 828 3 ,8 9 2 166 3 ,2 8 6 835 5 78 5 ,0 8 3 22 3 1 .2 1 0 .2 2 0.1 2 1.9 3 0 .0 8 1 .8 3 0.8 6 0.3 2 2.8 0 0 .1 2 118. 115. 116. 117. 118. MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VI CE S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ........................................................................ MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... 199 99 9 -61 823 838 21 7 25 -173 822 1,180 58 7 95 -206 2 ,2 1 2 1 ,5 1 0 78 2 99 -213 2 ,8 2 3 0.5 1 0 .2 5 0 .0 3 -0 .2 0 0 .9 7 0.8 8 0 .8 1 0.0 6 -0 .1 2 1 .5 7 119. 120. 121. 122. 123. H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIONAL S E R V IC E S ..................................................................... NONPROFIT O RG AN IZ AT IO NS ............................................................. POST O F F I C E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY CR ED IT CORPORATION............................................... 262 3 35 182 0 8 98 -7 78 388 0 1,602 22 6 25 0 983 0 2 ,0 8 9 287 30 3 1 ,3 0 6 0 0 .5 9 -0 .0 1 0 .0 9 0 .8 6 0 .0 0 1 .1 8 0.1 6 0.1 7 0.7 3 0.0 0 128. 125. 126. 127. 128. OTHER FEDERAL EN TE RP RI SE S ....................................................... STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ENTE RP RISE S .................... DIRE CTLY ALLOCATED IMP ORT S..................................................... TRANSFERRED IMP O RT S ........................................................................ BUSINESS TRA VEL , ENTERTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............ 0 21 3 0 0 0 52 5 0 0 0 107 10 0 0 0 128 12 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 6 0 .0 1 0.0 0 0 .0 0 0.0 0 0.0 7 0 .0 1 0.0 0 0 .0 0 129. 130. 131. 132. 133. O FF IC E S U P P L I E S ................................................................................... SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GCODS..................................... GOVERNMENT I N DU S TR Y ........................................................................ REST OF THE WORLD IND US TR Y ..................................................... HOUSEHOLDS................................................................................................. 283 505 3 0,581 0 583 7 29 81,921 0 0 1 ,2 9 5 1,162 60,861 0 0 1 ,6 7 5 1 ,2 8 7 69,1 85 0 0 0.6 8 0.8 6 8 9.2 5 0 .0 0 C.00 0.9 3 0.6 9 38.8 8 0.0 0 0 .0 0 138. INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT.......................................... TO TA L ............................................................................................................... 0 59,091 0 8 5,1 17 0 1 89,100 0 1 79,800 C.00 1 00 .00 0 .0 0 100.00 ° 18 3 TABLE B-15. DIF.BCT REQUIREMENTS PEE DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970 (PRODUCERS• VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS 1 CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY FORESTRY, AND AND FISHERY FISHERIES SERVICES 3 4 IRON ORE MINING 5______ COPPER ORE MINING & 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS............... CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS......... FORESTRY AND FISHERIES.......................... AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND PISHERY SERVICES... IRON ORE MINING. .. ........ ...................... . 166519 .286699 .000000 .018626 .000000 .057016 .025240 .000000 .039896 .000000 .056764 .059250 .017895 .043538 .000000 .095681 .287573 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .cooooo .000000 .000000 .038088 .oooooo .oooooo . oooooo .oooooo .001088 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORB MINING............................... OTHER NONFEHRODS METAL ORE MINING............. COAL MINING...................................... CRUDE PETROLEUM.................................. STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING........... .000000 .000000 .000204 .000000 .000069 .000000 .000000 .000021 .000000 .003532 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000001 .028894 .004435 .003596 .000000 .004316 . 241 503 .020254 .000770 . oooooo 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER MINING................. NEW RESIDENTIAL BULIDING CONSTRUCTION......... NEW NONBESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION...... NEW PUBLIC UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION.............. NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................ .000000 . 00 00 00 .000000 . 00 00 00 .000000 .001592 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 . 0 0 00 00 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 . 00 00 00 .00 00 00 .000000 .000000 .006407 .OOOOOO 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCT I O N..................... MAINTENANCE AND EEPAIR C O NSTRUCTION........... GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES............ OTHER ORDNANCE .................. ................ FOOD PRODUCTS......... .......................... .000000 .005799 .oocooo .00 00 00 .129156 .000000 .009608 .000000 .000000 .000075 .000000 .000000 . 0 0 00 00 . 00 00 00 .022827 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .018174 . 00 0000 .000479 .000000 .000000 . 00 00 00 .OOOOOO 21. 22 . 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING........................... FABRIC, YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S................. MISCELLANEOUS TEXTILES AND FLOOR COVERINGS.... HOSIERY AND KNIT G OODS.......................... APPAREL........................................... .000000 .000000 ,000526 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000378 .001496 .000000 .000000 .000000 . 00 00 00 .049422 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .033412 .000000 .000000 . 00 00 00 .000009 .000007 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000303 .000160 .oooooo .oooooo 26 . 27. 28 . 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED TEXTILE PRODUCTS..... LOGGING, SAWMILLS, AND PLANING MILLS.......... MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS.... HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE............................. OTHER FURNITURE.................................. .001093 .000000 .000121 .000000 .000000 .002457 .005419 .000000 .000000 .001107 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .012315 .000000 .000000 .000000 .001725 .000000 .000000 .000000 .oooooo .005265 .oooooo .oooooo . oooooo 31. PAPER PRODUCTS................................... 32. PAPERBOARD....................................... 33. PUBLISHING............ .......................... 34. PRINTING.......................................... 35. CHEMICAL PRODUCTS................................ .000523 .000067 .000244 .000000 .001626 .000043 .000114 .000397 .000000 .014506 .000243 .000000 .000247 .000001 .001002 .000031 .050483 .000015 .000001 .000012 . 000184 .000000 .000025 .00001U .018376 .000225 36. 37. 38. 39. 40 . AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS.......................... PLASTIC MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC R U B B E R........ SYNTHETIC FIBERS................................. DRUGS........... ................................. CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS............... .000944 .000000 .000000 .004491 .000000 .044300 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 . oocooo .000000 .000000 .000000 .000585 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 . oooooo . oooooo .000002 . oooooo 41 . PAINT............................................. 42. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS.............................. 43. RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................. 44. PLASTIC PRODUCTS................................. 45. LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODOCTS.,.... .000000 .006929 .001046 . 0 0 00 00 .000245 .000000 .035207 .003552 .000466 .000000 .002636 .019584 .000523 .000000 .000000 .000001 .002027 .000036 .000000 .001371 .000005 .008297 . 004691 . oooooo .000003 46. 47 . 48. 49. 50 . GL A S S .................................. ........... CEMENT, CLAY, AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS........... MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS......... BLAST FURNACES AND BASIC STEEL PRODUCTS....... IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS......... .000252 .000000 .000044 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000281 .001 07 5 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000231 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000001 . ocoooo .000000 .005180 .000260 . 022461 .000000 51 . 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS.................... ...... PRIMARY ALUMINUM...................... .......... OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL.. COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING..................... ALUMINUM ROLLING AND D R A W I N G................... . 00 0 0 0 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 . 00 00 00 . 0 0 00 00 . 00 00 00 .000000 . 00 0000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .OOOOOO . OOOOOO 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING.......... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODOCTS....... METAL CONTAINERS................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING FIXTURES....... FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL.................... .000023 .000000 .000343 .000000 .000000 .000022 . 00 00 00 .000000 .013013 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000982 .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .000152 .oooooo .oooooo .000551 .002963 61 . 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................... ...... OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODU C T S ................ ENGINES, TURBINES, AND GENERATORS............. FARM MACHINERY................................... CONSTRUCTION, MINING, AND OILFIELD MACHINEPY.. .001006 .000924 .000000 .000101 .000000 .000000 .001 273 .000000 .003896 .000000 .003000 .085223 .000000 .000000 .000000 .oooooo .001128 .009418 .oooooo .022632 .oooooo .000486 .008507 .OOOOOO .021401 .000000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .000498 .000000 .cooooo 18 4 .000000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .009467 .000000 .000000 .000000 .oooooo .000000 .OOOOOO . OOOOOO .0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .0 00000 .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .000000 .ooo ooo .000028 .000002 .038158 .o o o ooo ,000000 .oo o o o o .000001 .000001 .003203 .005105 .ooo ooo .000001 . oooooo .001598 .000056 .024696 .0 00000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 . OOOOOO .0 00000 . oooooo . oooooo .oooooo . oooooo TABLE B-15. DIBECT REQUIREMENTS PEE DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1 970— CONTIN UED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE LIV ESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS 1 CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 2 FORESTRY AND FI S H E R IE S AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FI SHERY SERVICES 4 IRON ORE MIN IN G COPPER ORE MINING 5 6 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000017 .000251 .00 1 05 0 .00 0 00 0 .000209 .000205 .00 3 16 4 .00 0 03 6 .00 0 00 0 .000358 .00 0 02 2 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 05 1 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 07 3 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .028107 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 7 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000193 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000055 .000000 .000264 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000183 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 25 9 .000047 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .001035 .00 0 09 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 1 15 7 .00 0 03 8 .00 0 00 0 .030199 .000000 .000016 .000006 .000231 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000213 .000304 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 14 2 .000233 .000000 .00 0 00 0 RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . . MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.................... S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................... MEDICAL AND DENTAL INSTRUMENTS......................................... O PT IC AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQU IPMENT.................................... .00 0 00 0 .000006 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 25 1 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 42 3 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 05 3 .000000 .000290 .000000 .000000 .00 1 42 3 .00 0 00 0 .000448 .00 0 00 0 .000000 91. 92. 93. 9*t. 95. PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND SU PPLTES............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION............................................................. LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPORTATION.................... ................................................. .00 0 00 0 .000060 .005629 .00 0 00 0 . 018641 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 06 3 .00 3 68 1 .00 0 00 0 .00 4 93 9 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 0 1 1 2 .001366 .00 0 00 0 .002532 .000000 .000002 .00 1 45 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 9 22 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .00 0 00 7 .00 9 57 7 .00 0 0 0 0 .00 4 31 8 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 4 .00 3 67 8 .000000 .00 2 67 8 96. 97. 98. 99. 100. WATER T R A N S P O R T A T I O N . . . . . ........................................................ A I R TRANSPORTATION................. .. ...................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING................................................. .. . 000332 .000057 .000136 .00 3 15 9 .000000 .000683 .00 0 57 1 .00 0 6 9 1 .004509 .00 0 00 0 .00 6 40 8 .01 5 97 4 .0 0 0 3 1 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000032 .01 3 99 3 .000029 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .03 4 60 1 .000222 .00 0 14 0 .001507 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 25 4 .00 0 11 6 .00 0 06 5 .001974 .000000 101. 102. 103. 1 04 . 105. ELE CTRIC U T I L I T I E S .................................. .................................. GAS U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................................ WATER AND SANITARY S ER VI CE S .............. ................................... WHOLESALE TRADE ................................. ............................................... R E T A IL TRADE..................................................................... ..................... .00 3 93 3 .000493 .000054 .02 8 63 8 .01 0 47 0 .00 3 48 7 .00 0 25 8 .003671 .022204 .011688 .000100 .00 0 00 5 .000000 .02 8 40 9 .00 7 3 3 1 .00 0 51 4 .000028 .000000 .02 4 37 9 .00 3 51 9 .018329 .003215 .0 0 1 8 7 3 .017298 .00 1 81 2 .020889 .003013 . 001776 .00 9 61 0 .00 2 11 3 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. FI N A N C E ....................................................................................................... INSURANCE.................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED D W E L L I N G S . . . . . . .......................................... OTHER REAL ESTAT E ............................................................................ HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................ .003051 .003853 .00 0 00 0 . 0 1 107 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 4 48 4 .00 7 98 9 .000000 .07 0 05 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 60 6 .0 0 1 3 9 1 . OOCOOO .000000 .000000 .00 4 00 5 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .022745 .00 0 00 0 .003395 .002556 .000000 .082015 .00 0 0 0 0 . 015159 .00 2 32 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 6 12 0 .000000 111. 112. 113. 114. 115. OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI CE S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S ER VI C E S ................................. .. A D V E R T IS I N G ............................................... .............................................. MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VIC ES ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ............................................................................. .00 0 00 0 .005633 .000047 .00 2 08 0 .003701 .000000 .03 9 08 2 .00 0 44 3 .00 2 34 0 .007069 .000000 .00 0 52 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .004617 .00 0 00 0 .000026 .000000 .000000 .00 0 62 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 5 35 4 .017252 .0 0 3 6 2 1 .000984 .000000 . 006 034 .00 0 00 0 .005808 .00 0 98 7 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. MOTION P IC TU RE S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S PI TA L S .................................... HO S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIONAL S ER VI CE S .............. .. ................................................... .000000 .000000 .01 9 45 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 0 0 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 •C00000 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. NONPROFIT O RG AN IZ ATI O NS ............................................................. POST OFFTC E............................................................................................. COMMODITY CRED IT CORPORATION............................................... OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R I S E S . . . . ............................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EN TE RPRISES .................... .00 1 72 3 .00 0 17 5 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000017 .00 0 41 7 .00 0 16 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000027 . 000000 .00 0 19 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 15 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 19 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000024 .00 0 53 5 .00 0 9 1 8 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 40 1 .00 0 70 0 .000752 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 37 2 126. 127. 128. 1 29 . DIRECTLY ALLOCATED IMP O RT S..................................................... TRANSFERRED IMP ORTS........................................................................ BUSINESS TRA V EL , EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............ O FF IC E S U P P L I E S . . .............................................................................. T O TA L ............................... .. ............................................................................ .000068 .005803 .00 0 79 2 .000020 .757213 .00 4 35 8 .01 4 20 6 .001298 . 0 0 0 01 9 .46 2 51 4 .000000 .21 1 13 5 . 011073 .00 0 17 8 .65 0 57 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .0 1 0 4 0 6 .00 0 00 0 .27 1 57 1 .00 2 8 7 8 .00 0 1 8 1 .66 3 24 8 .000000 .040503 .004269 .000165 .51 7 96 8 3 66, 67, 68. 69. 70. HA TE RIAL HANDLING EQUIP MENT.................................................. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ SP E CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.................................................... GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP P R O D U C T S . . ............................................................. .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000148 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 31 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000292 .000142 71. 72. 73. 71*. 75. COMPUTERS AND PER IPHERAL EQUIPMENT............................... TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES....................... SER VICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................ E LEC TR IC TRA NSMIS SION EQUIPMENT....................................... ELE CT R IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................... .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. HOUSEHOLD A P P L I A N C E S . . . ............................................................. ELE CTRIC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ETS ........................................................ TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS................................. OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT.............. .000000 .00 0 04 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 81. 82. 83. 81*. 85. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS.................................................................. OTHER ELECT RIC AL MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V EH IC LE S .............................................................................. .. A I R C R A F T . ................................................................................................... S HI P AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A I R ................................. 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. 18 5 :o o o i7 i .678582 TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINUED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE MINING 7 COAL MINING CRUDE PETROLEUM 8 9 STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING 10 CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER MINING 11 NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION 12 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODU C T S ............... CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS......... FORESTRY AND F I SHERIES......................... AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY SERVICES... IRON ORE MINING................................. .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000128 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000036 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000013 . OOOOOO .000000 . OOOOOO .000000 .001715 •OOOOOO .008748 .000000 .000081 .OOOOOO 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE MINING................................ OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE MINING............. COAL MINING...................................... CRUDE PETROLEUM.................................. STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING........... .000217 . 141022 .000550 .000000 .000624 .000000 .000098 .135985 .000000 .000291 .000000 .000018 .000002 .023668 .000000 .001541 .001041 .001696 .OOOOOO .008215 .000224 .OOOOOO .000701 . OOOOOO .007911 .000000 .000000 .oooooo . oooooo .003613 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER MI N I N G................. NEW RESIDENTIAL BULIDING CONSTRUCTION......... NEW NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION.... . NEW PUBLIC UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION............. NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................ .001561 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000016 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 . 000000 .000752 .000000 .000000 .000000 .OOOOOO .049580 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .000000 . OOOOOO .oooooo . oooooo .oooooo .oooooo . ooo ooo 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTI O N..................... MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION........... GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES............ OTHER ORDNANCE ................................... FOOD PRODUCTS.................................... .000000 .006606 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .003848 .000000 .000000 .000000 . 000000 .023990 .000000 . oooooo .000000 •OOOOOO .003265 .000000 .oooooo .oooooo . OOOOOO .002539 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .000078 .oooooo .000224 .oooooo .oooooo .000709 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING........................... FABRIC, YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S ................. MISCELLANEOUS TEXTILES AND FLOOR COVERINGS___ HOSIERY AND KNIT GOODS.......................... APPAREL........................................... .000000 .000015 .000061 .000000 .000014 .000000 .000000 .000001 .000000 .000000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .000000 .000259 .000000 . oooooo .000030 .oooooo .000067 .OOOOOO .oooooo .OOOOOO .000426 .OOOOOO .OOOOOO . OOOOOO .ooo ooo .000087 .005520 .OOOOOO .000428 26. MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED TEXTILE PRODUCTS.... 27. LOGGING, SAWMILLS, AND PLANING MILLS.......... 28. MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS___ 29. HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE............................. 30. OTHER FURNITURE.................................. .000000 .004692 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .005713 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000008 .oooooo .o o o o o o . oooooo .oooooo .000014 .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .000000 .000358 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .000000 .OOOOOO .032532 .063840 .013622 .001692 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS................................... PAPERBOARD....................................... PUBLISHING........................................ PRINTING.......................................... CHEMICAL PRODUCTS................................ .000264 .000000 .000033 .000042 .028974 .000403 .000000 .000018 .000004 .015647 .000159 .oooooo .000042 .000001 .009851 .002631 .oooooo .000017 .000025 .015675 .002840 .OOOOOO .000016 . 000033 .028610 .004237 .000000 .000049 . OOOOOO .001647 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS.......................... PLASTIC MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC RUBBER........ SYNTHETIC FIBERS................................. DR UGS............................... .............. CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS............... .000000 .000211 .000000 .000000 .000006 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000001 .oooooo . oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .000000 .000112 .000000 .000000 .000009 .OOOOOO . OOOOOO .000000 .oooooo .000169 .000000 .OOOOOO .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. PAINT............................................. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS............................... RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................. PLASTIC PRODUCTS................................. L E A T H E R , F O O T W E A R , A ND L E A T H E R P R O D U C T S ..................... .000021 .004786 .004363 .000000 .000012 .000002 .008570 .010724 .000000 .000001 .000424 .005717 .001230 .000000 . OOOOOO .000012 .021567 .025730 .000000 .000007 .000015 .007468 . 001998 . oooooo .000009 .006548 .008332 .000866 .006317 .000000 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. GL A S S ............................................. CEMENT, CLAY, AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS........... MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS......... BLAST FURNACES AND BASIC STEEL PRODUCTS....... IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS......... .000000 .001619 .000235 .014381 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000969 .019617 .000000 . OOOOOO .000134 .002953 .003553 .000000 .OOOOOO .090179 .003830 .010033 .005380 .000000 .000678 .000216 .020208 .003751 .002119 .080816 .014067 .015160 .002566 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS........................... PRIMARY ALUMINUM................................. OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL.. COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING...................... ALUMINUM ROLLING AND D RA W I N G................... .000000 .000000 .000169 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .OOOOOO .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .000000 .000035 .000000 .000069 .000004 .000000 . OOOOOO .000000 .000221 .000022 .000000 .000000 .000117 .004768 .001030 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING.......... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS....... METAL CONTAINERS................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING FIXTURES....... FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL.................... .000059 .000017 .000000 .000000 .000436 .000026 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 . oooooo . oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .003585 .000406 .000365 .000000 .000000 .001547 .001173 .000904 .OOOOOO .000000 .001581 .009224 .000000 .000000 .021359 .054286 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS.......................... OTHER FABRICATED METAL P RODUCTS................ ENGINES, TURBINES, AND GENERATORS.............. FARM MACHINERY................................... CONSTRUCTION, MINING, AND OILFIELD MACHINERY.. .000000 .004589 .008927 .000000 .017925 .000000 .005066 .019125 .000000 .038079 .oooooo .001288 .002006 .000000 .002627 .000000 .002050 .022220 .000000 .023919 .000000 .000989 .008599 .000000 .025522 .000313 .017249 .000000 •oooooo .000649 18 6 TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970— CONTINUED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE MIN IN G 7 COAL MINING * CRUDE PETROLEUM STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING 10 CHEMICAL AND FE RTILIZER MININ G 11 NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION 12 8 9 .002428 .00 0 73 5 .000000 .000596 .050081 .00 0 31 7 .00 1 90 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 89 7 .005328 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 2 53 0 .00 0 04 7 .009865 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .011056 .004064 .00 8 50 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .002520 .002855 .00 1 73 7 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 78 6 .00 0 00 0 COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERA L EQUIPMENT............................... TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES....................... SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................ ELE CTR IC TRANS MIS SION E QUIPMENT....................................... E LEC TR IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................... .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 02 2 .000915 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 3 11 3 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 8 21 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 62 9 .003189 .000000 . OOOOOO .000000 . 002439 .0 0 5 8 7 9 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .004027 .001698 .000089 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ..................................................................... E LEC TR IC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ET S ........................................................ TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT.............. .00 0 00 0 .000715 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 07 4 .00 0 00 0 .005685 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 0 3 4 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000439 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 59 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .001714 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 3 93 8 .013581 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 06 7 .000143 81 . 82. 83. 84. 85. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS.................................................................. OTHER ELE CTRICAL MACHIN ERY............ ........................................ MOTOR V EH IC LE S ...................................................................................... A IR C R A F T ...................................................................................................... S H I P AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R ................................. .00 0 01 5 .00 0 18 8 .00 0 22 1 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000325 .00 0 51 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 3 13 1 .000082 .00 0 05 1 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000644 .001063 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000195 .00 0 22 6 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 69 6 .00 0 01 4 .00 0 00 0 .000000 86. 87. 88. 89 . 90. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . . MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.................... S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................... MEDICAL AND DENTAL INSTRUMENTS.......................................... O PT IC AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT.................................... .00 0 14 2 .00 0 00 0 .000101 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 2 75 4 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000415 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000039 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 32 9 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000060 .00 2 23 4 .000000 .00 0 00 0 91. 92 . 93. 94. 95. PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION............................................................. LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .001195 .005213 .00 0 00 0 . 009243 .000000 .00 0 00 3 .010385 .00 0 00 0 .00 4 33 9 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 0 0 0 1 .000970 .00 0 00 0 .000746 .00 0 00 0 .000019 .002926 .00 0 00 0 .004543 .000000 .000027 .01 0 45 2 .000000 .009243 .00 0 00 0 .001084 .01 6 54 4 .00 0 00 0 .01 3 78 9 96 . 97. 98 . 99. 100. WATER TRANSPORTATION...................................................................... A I R TRANSPORTATION........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION...................................................................... COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING................. ..................................... .005045 .001099 .000436 .00 0 77 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 46 6 .00 0 22 0 .000145 .00 1 96 2 .00 0 00 0 .00 9 12 6 .000187 .00 1 02 6 .00 1 13 4 .00 0 00 0 .002230 .00 1 90 9 .00 0 40 5 .000371 .00 0 00 0 .012178 .0 0 0 7 0 4 .000346 . 0 05 4 0 2 .000000 .00 0 27 0 .000110 .000038 .004850 .00 0 00 0 101. 102. 103. 1 04 . 105. ELE CTR IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... WATER AND SANITARY S ER VI CE S .................................................. WHOLESALE TRADE................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE........................................................................................... .01 9 89 3 .002871 .00 2 24 9 .022100 .002282 .027318 .000184 .000616 .02 1 25 8 .00 3 15 4 .008887 .00 4 53 9 .000480 .01 1 31 5 .00 3 00 2 .02 2 21 3 .003996 .00 2 49 6 .02 1 26 3 .00 4 01 5 .02 3 87 3 .021783 .004664 .01 9 55 2 .00 1 6 2 1 .002893 .00 0 49 6 .00 0 67 5 .05 2 72 5 .060096 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. F IN A N C E ......................................................................................................... INSURANCE.................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS.......................................................... OTHER REAL ES TA TE ............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................ .007027 .00 6 65 4 .000000 .041317 .000000 .005335 .0 0 6 2 5 1 .00 0 00 0 .02 5 69 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 5 29 1 .003965 .00 0 00 0 .18 7 96 0 .000000 .00 7 40 7 .005928 .00 0 00 0 .01 7 58 5 .00 0 00 0 . 0 07 4 8 2 .001307 .000000 .0 1 3 8 3 6 .000000 .003634 .002604 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 5 1 2 1 .00 0 00 0 111. 112. 1 13. 114. 115. OTHER PERSONAL S ER VIC ES ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R VI C E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS I N G .............................................................................................. MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL SER VI CE S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R .............................................................................. .00 0 00 0 .005584 .00 0 00 0 .00 4 01 0 .00 2 19 0 .00 0 00 0 .008742 .000000 .006032 .00 3 45 0 .000000 .00 8 23 8 .00 0 00 0 .005071 .00 4 47 0 .000000 .00 7 38 2 .00 0 00 0 .00 5 22 8 .009399 .000000 .004922 .00 0 00 0 .006250 .00 1 48 5 .000000 .00 8 05 6 .00 1 33 8 .0 3 5 1 4 1 .004990 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................. HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................... H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIONAL S E R V I C E S . . . ............................................................. .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS ............................................................. POST O F F I C E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY CR ED IT CORPORATION............................................... OTHER FEDERAL ENTE RP RISE S........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EN TERPR ISES .................... .000272 .00 0 75 4 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000518 .00 0 67 3 .000731 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000214 . 00 0377 .000508 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 2 5 1 .00 0 14 5 .000461 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 85 2 .00 2 11 2 .002281 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 99 9 .00 0 91 3 .000345 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 10 7 126. 127. 128. 129. DIRECTLY ALLOCATED IMP ORTS..................................................... TRANSFERRED IMPORTS........................................................................ BUSINESS T RA V EL , ENTERTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............ O FF IC B S U P P L I E S . . .............................................................................. TO TA L ............................................................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .21 4 48 2 .00 4 20 1 .000205 .65 8 40 2 .00 0 00 0 .007271 .00 4 46 1 .00 0 28 8 .42 4 27 6 .00 0 00 0 .06 8 48 3 .006571 .000318 .42 9 37 7 .00 0 00 0 .04 7 28 9 .00 4 98 0 .000247 .44 6 88 4 .00 0 00 0 .16 3 81 1 .00 2 74 5 .000208 . 510 4 94 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 6 98 5 .000226 .636915 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT.................................................. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.................................................... GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP P R O D U C T S . . . . ........................................................ 71. 72. 73. 79. 75. 18 7 TABLE B-15. DIRECT HEQDIREHENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OOTP0T, 1970— CONTINUED (PRODUCERS' VALDE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE NEW NON NEW PUBLIC NEW HIGHWAY A L L OTHER MAINTENANCE R E S ID E N T IA L B U I L D IN G U T IL IT IE S NEW AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION 13 19 17 15 16 GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES 18 1. 2. 3. 9. 5. L IVE ST OCK AND LIVEST OCK PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................ AGR ICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FI SHERY S E R V I C E S . . . IRON ORE M I N I N G ................................................................................... .000000 .001389 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000159 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 25 5 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 07 2 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 01 2 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE M I N I N G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G .................................. COAL M I N I N G .............................................................................................. CRUDE PETROLEUM................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND QUAPRYING............................ .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 9 96 2 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 9 93 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 . 000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .0 3 8 1 8 1 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 7 23 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .01 3 9 5 1 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 06 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 11. 12. 13. 19. 15. CHEMICAL AND F E R T I L I Z E R M I N I N G .......................................... NEW R E S I D E N T I A L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION....................... NEW NO NRE SI DE NTI AL B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION.............. NEW P U B LI C U T I L I T I E S C ONSTRUCTION...................... NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION.......................................................... .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00000O .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 16. 17. 18 . 19 . 20. ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION..................................................... MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION............................ GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS. ...................................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .00 0 19 5 .00 0 00 0 .000115 .000093 .000000 .000127 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 . 000102 .00 0 0 0 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 13 8 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000235 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 1 1 1 .00 0 00 0 .000800 .000366 .000336 .000000 21. 22. 23. 29. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING............................................................. F A B R I C , YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S .......................................... MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R I N G S . . . . HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS................................................................ APPAREL......................................................................................................... .000000 .00 0 20 2 .00 2 23 8 .000000 .00 0 90 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 29 9 .000000 .000351 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 56 9 .000000 .00 2 35 5 .000271 .000000 .00 0 38 2 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 1 .00 0 17 6 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 59 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000009 .000000 .00 0 90 0 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS FA BR ICAT ED T E X T I L E PRODUCTS............ LOGGING, SAWMT L L S , AND PLANING M I L L S ......................... MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S . . .. HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................ OTHER FUR NI TUR E................................................................................... .000925 .00 3 70 7 .01 0 8 9 1 .000196 .009918 .00 0 00 0 .00 8 98 5 .031165 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 72 0 .000000 .00 7 37 5 .00 9 36 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 5 22 5 .02 0 90 0 .000000 .001912 .00 0 00 9 .029800 .00 9 60 0 .000000 .000157 . 000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 31. 32. 33. 39. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD................................................................................................. P U B L I S H I N G ......................................................................................... .. • . P R I N T I N G ....................................................................................................... CHEMICAL PRODUCTS.............................................................................. .00 5 90 5 .000273 .000057 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 26 0 .001063 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 25 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 5 18 8 .00 1 26 2 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .01 1 93 0 .003539 .000000 .0 0 0 0 5 9 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 68 9 .000852 .00 0 00 0 .000389 .000001 .00 0 37 0 36. 37. 38 . 39. 90. AGRICULTURAL CH EM IC AL S ................................................................ P L A S T I C MATERI ALS AND SYNT HE TIC RUBBER................. .. S YN THE TIC F I B E R S ................................................................................ DRUGS............................................................................................................... CLEANING AND T O I L E T PREPARATIONS.................................... .00 0 00 0 .00 0 05 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000101 .000100 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 87 9 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 09 9 .00 0 0 0 1 . 000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 1 .00 0 00 1 .00 0 10 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000086 91. 92. 93. 99. 95. P A I N T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................................................................... P L A S T I C PRODUCTS................................................................................ LEATHE R, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. .005093 .01 0 75 1 .00 1 70 5 .010520 .00 0 03 2 .00 0 65 5 .01 9 52 7 .002199 .00 1 21 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 9 21 1 . 097828 .002825 .000000 .000000 .001906 .09 0 75 2 .003191 .002819 .00 0 00 0 .09 3 26 2 .029818 .00 1 71 9 . 010600 .00 0 00 2 .000000 .002378 .002032 .00 2 38 0 .00 0 01 1 96. 97. 98. 99. 50. GLASS............................................................................................................... CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS........................... MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND BAS IC STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... .001655 . 066735 .01 9 19 8 .01 3 57 9 .002692 .00 0 10 9 .095859 .027973 .09 3 80 0 .01 7 59 5 .00 0 00 0 .08 6 89 5 .00 2 03 5 .059985 .000301 .000226 .09 6 62 9 .01 6 68 9 .055069 .00 9 62 2 .005003 .019300 .006276 .011115 .00 2 71 7 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000003 .000638 .00 0 70 1 51. 52. 53. 59. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS................................................................... PRIMARY ALUMINUM................................................................................. OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L . . COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING..................................................... ALUMINUM ROL LING AND DRAWING............................................... .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 09 5 .003915 .00 1 05 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 73 1 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 . 000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 95 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000156 .001718 .00 0 39 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 13 6 .000218 .000120 .00 5 00 0 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROL LING AND DRAWING.......................... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS................. METAL CONTA INE RS ................................................................................ HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S ................. FA BRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL.................................................. .01 2 80 6 .0 0 0 1 1 1 .000000 .019881 .12 0 77 1 .07 8 88 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 59 1 .12 0 63 6 .000915 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .073199 .00 2 62 2 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 1 00 5 .09 3 90 8 .00 5 91 7 .000000 .000000 .01 3 00 0 .02 0 00 0 .00 1 06 9 .00 5 9 6 1 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 61. 62. 63. 69. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS....................................... EN G IN ES , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS................................. FARM MACHINERY...................................................................................... CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MACHINERY.. .001631 .016511 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .001128 .00 3 26 5 .016965 .00 6 29 2 .00 0 00 0 .00 7 69 0 .000192 .01 1 03 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .010003 .006533 .01 8 36 9 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .029719 .000855 .01 3 58 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 01 9 .00 3 99 0 .00 0 00 0 .002751 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 18 8 TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PEE DOLLAR OF GEOSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINUED (PPODUCEES1 VALUE - 1963 DOLLABS) INDUSTRY CODE NEW NONNEW R E S ID E N T IA L PUB LIC NEW HIGHWAY A L L OTHER MAINTENANCE B U I L D IN G U TIL IT IE S CONSTRUCTION NEW AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION 13 14 15 16 17 GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES 18 66 . 67. 68 . 69. 70. MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT.................................................. METALHORKING MACHINERY.............................................................. S P E C IA L INDUSTRY MACHINERY..................................................... GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... . 012837 .000565 .000000 .007248 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 12 3 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 4 94 7 .000113 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .001638 .00 0 80 4 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 89 8 .000247 .005800 .000021 .00 0 00 0 .002288 .000055 .000089 .00 2 02 6 .00 0 00 0 .001091 .000062 71. 72. 73. 74. 75 . COMPUTERS AND PER IPHERAL EQUIPMENT............................... TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FFI CE MACHINES....................... SER VICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................ E LEC TR IC TRANS MIS SION EQUIPMENT....................................... ELE CT R IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................... .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .017286 .01 0 56 6 .000569 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 1 96 5 .019556 .00 1 00 7 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000603 .00 0 87 7 . 000000 .000000 .0 1 2 8 0 0 .00 2 50 0 . 000 601 .00 0 01 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .003574 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA NC ES ..................................................................... E LEC TR IC L I G H T I N G AND H I R I N G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N SETS.................................... ................... TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT.............. .000031 .02 6 04 5 .000000 .000154 .000554 .000000 .015068 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .008634 .000000 .00 9 63 3 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 08 1 .00 0 77 9 .027331 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .003044 .010800 .000000 .00 0 01 1 .001105 .000000 .010000 .000000 .000000 .06 0 00 0 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER ELE CT R IC AL MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... A IR C R A FT ...................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R .................................. .000152 .0 0 0 1 0 1 .00 0 03 2 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 29 7 .00 0 68 8 .00 0 17 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000947 .000298 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 1 06 9 -.000303 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000109 .000509 .000111 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 06 8 .000025 .393040 .000000 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . . MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.................... S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................... MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUMENTS ......................................... O PT IC AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT..................................... .000038 . 000C70 .008386 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000373 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 43 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000407 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000005 .003364 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000890 .000177 .00 0 08 6 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION............................................................. LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... .00 0 24 9 .001169 .01 0 07 8 .000000 .026038 .00 0 32 3 .000337 .009909 .00 0 00 0 .017001 .00 0 25 9 .003660 .0 1 3 7 0 9 .000000 .02 5 82 4 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 28 6 .00 9 38 9 .00 0 00 0 .015779 .00 0 00 9 .003367 .0 0 8 5 0 6 .00 0 00 0 .01 2 46 1 .00 0 00 0 .000129 .000420 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 18 2 96. 97. 98 . 99. 100. HATER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... A IR TRANSPORTATION........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING....................................................... .00 0 19 4 .000128 .000089 .00 4 46 8 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 78 3 .000249 .00 0 17 3 .00 2 50 6 .000000 .000886 .00 0 20 0 .00 0 27 9 .00 2 33 1 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 56 9 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 75 5 .002297 .00 0 00 0 .000413 .00 0 17 0 . 0 00 0 7 8 .005340 . 000000 .000034 .00 0 38 3 .00 0 0 3 3 .01 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 1 01. 102. 103. 104. 105. E LEC TR IC U T I L I T I E S .......................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................................ HATER AND SANITAR Y S ER VI CE S .................................................. WHOLESALE TRADE................................................................................... R E T A I L TRADE........................................................................................... .002660 .00 0 47 9 .00 0 62 6 .046195 .032373 .001451 .00 0 28 0 .000305 .036672 .01 4 47 9 .00 1 16 6 .00 0 30 0 .00 0 49 0 .04 3 96 7 .017555 .00 1 35 4 .000203 .000332 .05 2 27 0 .024757 . 003157 .000557 .0 0 0 7 4 1 .039874 .04 3 2 9 4 .002300 .00 0 3 6 1 .00 0 32 0 .01 1 04 6 .004781 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. FI N A N C E ......................................................................................................... INS URA NCE .................................... .............................................................. OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS.......................................................... OTHER REAL ESTATE.............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING PLA CES ....................................................... .003335 .002646 .00 0 00 0 .00 4 90 1 .000000 .001491 .003979 .00 0 00 0 .002513 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 36 9 .007411 .00 0 00 0 .003230 .000000 .002087 .00 6 10 5 .000000 .00 2 73 6 .00 0 00 0 .003394 .004637 .00 0 00 0 .005801 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 67 5 .003046 .00 0 00 0 .008226 .00 0 00 0 111. 112. 1 13. 114. 115. OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI CE S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R VI C E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS I N G .............................................................................................. MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VIC ES ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P AI R .............................................................................. .00 0 00 0 .008151 .001362 .046696 . 004691 .00 0 00 0 .00 7 51 5 .00 1 28 1 .04 3 27 3 .00 2 55 0 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 9 5 4 3 .00 1 47 0 .083400 .0 0 3 0 7 3 .000000 .009766 .00 1 39 4 .04 0 41 6 .00 2 54 5 .000000 .010252 .00 1 07 7 .0 0 5 9 4 2 .005543 .00 1 85 4 .01 4 00 0 .000000 .00 6 62 8 .002820 1 16 . 117. 118. 119. 120. MOTION PIC TUR ES .................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT HO SPI TA LS .................................... H O S P I T A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIONAL S E R V IC E S ..................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS ............................................................. POST O F F I C E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION............................................... OTHER FEDERAL ENTERPRISES........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EN TERPR ISES .................... .000854 .000349 .000000 .000000 .000124 .000475 .000195 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 56 2 .00 0 50 9 .00 0 15 6 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 2 9 1 .000518 .00 0 21 2 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 1 05 0 .001001 .00 0 39 7 .000000 .000000 .000408 .00 1 89 9 .003092 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000080 126. 127. 128. 129. DIRECT LY ALLOCATED IMP ORTS..................................................... TRANSFERRED IMPORTS........................................................................ BUSINESS TRA VEL , ENTERTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............ O FF IC E S U P P L I E S ................................................................................... TO TA L ............................................................................................................... .000000 .000000 .006626 .000197 .63 6 90 3 .000000 .000000 .00 3 54 7 .00 0 12 8 .644903 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .004750 .000103 .591282 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 3 64 8 .00 0 13 9 .535475 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 7 81 2 .0 0 0 2 4 5 .44 2 4 0 1 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .013259 .001999 .590863 18 9 .On O l oo C TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPDT, 1970 — CONT1NUED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) — INDUSTRY CODE OTHER ORDNANCE FOOD PRODUCTS 19 20 FABRIC, TOBACCO ! YARN, AND MANUFACTURING I THREAD MILLS 21 22 ! MISCELLANEOUS TEXTILES j HOSIERY AND AND FLOOR KNIT GOODS COVERINGS 23 | 24 | | ! 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK P RODUCTS............... CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS......... FORESTRY AND FISHERIES.......................... AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY SERVICES... IRON ORE MINING.................................. .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .203089 .078096 .003829 .000000 .000000 . 000000 .138024 .000000 .000000 .000000 .002596 .077391 .000000 .000000 .000000 .037543 .006251 .000000 .000000 .000000 .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE MINING................................ OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE MINING............. COAL MINING...................................... CRUDE PETROLEUM.................................. STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING........... .000000 .000000 .000321 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000515 .000000 .000124 .000000 .000000 .000330 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000738 .000000 .000033 .000000 .000000 .000299 .000000 .000000 .oooooo .oooooo .000221 .oooooo .oooooo 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER MINING................. NEW RESIDENTIAL BOLIDING CONSTRUCTION......... NEW NONRESI DENT IAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION..... NEW PUBLIC UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION.............. NEH HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................ .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000095 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION..................... MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION........... GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES............ OTHER ORDNANCE ................................... FOOD PRODUCTS.................................... .000000 .000651 .0001 03 .052985 .000000 .000000 . 001 583 .000000 .000000 .160828 .000000 .001068 .000000 .000000 .000217 .000000 .001369 .000000 .000000 .001902 .oooooo .001603 .oooooo .oooooo .000523 .ooo ooo .001351 .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING........................... FABRIC, YARN, AND THREAD MILLS................. MISCELLANEOUS TEXTILES AND FLOOR COVERINGS___ HOSIERY AND KNIT GOODS.......................... APPAREL........................................... . 00 00 00 . 00 00 00 .000001 .000049 .000794 .000000 .000242 .000053 .000416 .000493 .193047 .000000 .000000 .000000 . 00 00 00 .000000 .316414 .046879 .003626 .000059 .o o o o o o . 174471 . 085304 .011985 .000107 .oooooo .241714 .000051 . 162078 .004474 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED TEXTILE PRODUCTS..... LOGGING, SAWMILLS, AND PLANING MILLS.......... HILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS.... HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE............................. OTHER FURNITURE................. ................ . 00 00 00 .005532 .003356 .000071 .000616 .002216 .000000 .002139 .000004 .000000 .000000 .000000 .001778 .000000 .000000 .004555 .000000 .000021 .000018 .000000 . 035619 .OOOOOO .000021 .000841 .000000 .OOOOOO . OOOOOO .OOOOOO 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS................................... PAPERBOARD....................................... PUBLISHING....................................... PRINTING.......................................... CHEMICAL PRODUCTS................................ .000424 .002846 .000221 .000006 .006321 .012687 .016992 .000098 .008093 .003797 .007765 .018832 .000046 .014380 .000498 .003770 .004501 .000043 .000026 .024769 .012427 .007133 .000057 .000783 . 003996 .000430 .010038 .000061 .000003 .002713 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS.......................... PLASTIC MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC RUBBER........ SYNTHETIC F I BERS................................. DRUGS............................................. CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS............... .000008 .000443 .000000 .000000 .000078 .000223 .001847 .000000 .003480 .000463 .000008 .019302 .000000 .000000 .000845 .000018 .000990 .122599 .000000 .001660 .000034 .018577 .202215 .OOOOOO .001406 .000065 .OOOOOO . 126425 .000000 .001393 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. PAINT............................................. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS.............................. RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................. PLASTIC PRODUCTS................ ................ LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS....... .000002 .002608 .018156 .005687 .000072 .000007 .003158 .000526 .006500 .000034 .000001 .000415 .000017 .000000 .000012 .000488 .001441 .001445 .000643 .000055 .000004 .002016 .011564 . 012060 .000097 .000001 .001487 .000503 . 001311 .000089 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. GLASS............................................. CEMENT, CLAY, AND CONCRETE P R O D U C T S........... MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS......... BLAST FURNACES AND BASIC STEEL PRODUCTS....... IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS......... .000000 .000000 .000002 .036557 .037214 .012616 .000011 .00001 1 .000037 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .003181 .000000 .000032 .000000 .000000 .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .000933 .000000 .000071 .OOOOOO .000000 .000001 .000001 . oooooo 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS........................... PRIMARY ALUMINUM................................. OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL.. COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING..................... ALUMINUM ROLLING AND DRAWING................... .000000 .001265 .005511 .009517 .025749 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000013 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 . OOOOOO .OOOOOO . oooooo . oooooo . oooooo . oooooo 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING.......... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS....... METAL CONTAINERS................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING FIXTURES....... FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL.................... .000994 .012849 .000000 .002576 .003126 .000000 .000000 .028699 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .002029 .000000 .000000 .000001 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000037 . OOOOOO . oooooo . OOOOOO .000050 61. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS.......................... 62. OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS................ 63. ENGINES, TURBINES, AND GENERATORS............. 64. FARM MACHINERY................................... 65. CONSTRUCTION, MINING, AND OILFIELD MACHINERY.. .013807 .012009 .001743 .000036 .001235 .002985 .003562 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .009581 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000007 .000506 .000000 .000000 .000000 •OOOOOO .000389 . OOOOOO .000011 . oooooo 19 0 .o ooooo .000014 .000818 .0 00000 .o ooooo .ooo ooo .oooooo . oooooo •OOOOOO .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .000316 .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINUED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTBY CODE OTHEE ORDNANCE 19 l FOOD PRODUCTS 20 — TOBACCO MANUFACTURING J_ 21 F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD MILLS 22 _ j MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR COVERINGS 23 HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS 29 66. 67. 68 . 69, 70. MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT.................................................. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY..................................................... GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MAC HINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... .000908 .00 7 91 3 .000900 .00 7 8 9 1 .00 6 59 7 .00 0 15 5 .000000 .000571 .00 0 08 2 .000075 .00 0 07 6 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 0 0 0 .000005 .00 0 00 5 .000250 .00 0 00 6 .005371 .000073 .000009 .00 0 19 7 .0 0 0 0 1 9 .00 2 95 3 .00 0 12 3 .00 0 00 5 .00 0 17 8 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 1 7 9 1 .00 0 2 9 1 .00 0 01 2 71. 72. 73. 7U. 75. COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT............................... TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES....................... SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................ ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT....................................... ELECTRICAL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................... .00 0 00 0 .000019 .00 6 66 3 .000915 .006969 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 2 .000009 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. HOUSEHOLD A PP L IA NC ES ..................................................................... ELE CTRIC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N SETS........................................................ TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT.............. .001315 .000221 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 59 3 .021659 .00 0 00 0 .000019 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000001 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 9 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 31 0 .000000 .00 0 0 0 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 9 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 81. 82. 83. 89. 85. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER ELE CTR ICA L MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... A IR C R A F T ...................................................................................................... S HI P AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R ................................. .09 9 90 0 .00 8 0 6 9 .000096 . 095917 .000031 .000000 .00 0 11 0 .000039 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 7 .000002 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 01 3 .000009 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 0 1 2 0 .00 0 09 3 .00 0 00 5 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 01 2 .000005 .000000 .000000 86. 87. 88 . 89. 90. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T . . . MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.................... S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................... MEDICAL AND DENTAL I N S T R U M E N T S . . . .................................. OP TI C AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT.................................... .00 5 63 9 .00 0 00 0 .01 5 0 9 1 .00 0 29 3 .03 8 92 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 19 9 .00 0 07 2 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000129 .000063 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 29 3 .00 0 19 1 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .001929 .000092 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000926 .00 0 20 9 91. 92. 93. 99. 95. PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION............................................................. LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPORTATION...................................................................... .00 2 10 7 .00 0 15 5 .00 2 59 0 .00 0 00 0 .003959 .00 0 00 0 .000119 .011793 .000000 . 0 2 1 929 .000195 .000090 .00 2 21 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 3 6 5 9 .000000 .000093 .003925 .00 0 00 0 .00 9 11 0 .000000 .00 9 3 2 8 .00 2 97 7 .00 0 00 0 .006737 .000000 .009310 .000767 .000000 .005131 96 . 97. 98. 99. 100. WATER TRANSPORTATION...................................................................... A IR TRANSPORTATION........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING....................................................... .00 0 21 0 .000961 .000077 .007106 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 17 9 .000289 .0 0 0 0 6 1 .009298 .00 0 00 0 .000153 .000320 .00 0 0 2 7 .001090 .000000 .00 0 28 9 .000818 .00 0 09 6 .002500 .00 0 00 0 .003839 .000956 .00 0 10 5 .003190 .00 0 00 0 .000131 .00 0 93 6 .000058 .009061 .00 0 00 0 1 01 . 102. 103. 109. 105. E LE CTR IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... WATER AND SAN ITARY SER VI CE S .................................................. WHOLESALE TRADE................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................ .005139 .001193 .000352 .021300 .0 0 2 9 1 1 .0 0 3 8 2 9 .002269 .00 0 76 9 .092596 .00 1 86 8 .001991 .0 0 0 2 1 2 .00 0 15 8 .0 1 2 1 6 5 .00 2 9 0 7 .00 8 01 5 .001060 .00 0 56 7 .032261 .001133 .009878 .00 1 0 9 7 .000398 .0 5 5 9 0 6 .00 1 59 9 .00 9 00 7 .000726 .00 0 38 0 .02 5 10 0 .001028 106. 107. 108. 1 09 . 110. F IN A N C E ......................................................................................................... INSURANCE.................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS.......................................................... OTHER REAL ESTA TE .............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................ .0 0 0 8 6 1 .009169 .000000 .002087 .000000 .00 3 03 6 .00 3 23 6 .00 0 00 0 .00 5 20 8 .00 0 00 0 .002855 .00 0 78 7 .00 0 00 0 .002592 .00 0 00 0 .002366 .001299 .00 0 00 0 .00 3 79 6 .00 0 00 0 .002121 .00 1 73 5 .000000 .00 5 00 8 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 8 9 1 .00 1 2 9 1 .000000 .00 7 05 5 .00 0 00 0 111. 112. 113. 119. 115. OTHEE PERSONAL S ER VI CE S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R VI C E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS I N G .............................................................................................. MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S E R VI C E S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R .............................................................................. .000932 .015135 .002289 .002700 .00 1 20 9 .00 1 68 9 .00 6 99 9 .023929 .00 2 58 7 .00 3 25 7 .001916 .003779 .059929 .00 1 20 0 .000231 .00 0 19 9 .00 5 59 2 .00 2 90 9 .001809 .00 0 90 6 .000369 .00 9 57 2 .00 9 22 3 .001537 . 000973 .000000 .00 7 58 5 . 009989 .002025 .00 0 99 8 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. MOTION P I C T U R E S ...................................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS............................................................................... HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S PI TA L S ..................................... H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIONAL S ER VI CE S ...................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 . 000000 .00 0 0 0 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 121. 122. 123. 129. 125. NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS ............................................................. POST O F F I C E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION............................................... OTHER FEDERAL ENTERPRISES........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EN TERPR ISES .................... .00 0 6 2 8 .00 1 09 6 .000000 .000000 .00 0 0 6 1 .00 0 95 6 .00 0 89 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000396 .00 0 1 0 1 .002915 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 0 0 0 .000020 .000179 .00 0 79 7 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000137 .00 0 22 2 .00 0 97 9 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 10 9 .00 0 29 3 .001957 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000067 126. 127. 128. 129. DIRECT LY ALLOCATED IMPORTS..................................................... TRANSFERRED IMP ORTS ........................................................................ BUSINESS TRAV EL, EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............ O FF IC E S U P P L I E S ................................................................................... TOTAL............................................................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .01 1 90 8 .006665 .00 0 69 7 .637789 .012179 .01 3 9 9 1 .009238 .00 0 51 9 .73 8 17 3 .000000 .00 3 23 7 .00 8 72 5 .000237 .515975 .001378 .03 3 69 6 .00 3 09 7 .00 0 90 3 .79 5 05 5 .002901 .065590 .002791 .000306 .817973 .00 0 00 0 .00 9 80 5 .00 2 89 7 .00 0 9 1 1 .6 9 5 2 1 1 19 1 TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PEE DOLLAE OF GROSS OUTPDT, 1970— CONTINUED (PRODOCERS' VALOE - 1963 DOLLARS) I N DOSTP Y CODE APPAREL 25 1. MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED T E XT ILE PRODUCTS 26 LOGGING, SAWMI LLS , AND PLANING M IL LS 27 MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS 28 HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE 29 OTHER FURNITURE 30 2. 3. 9. 5. L IV E ST OC K AND L IVE ST OCK PRODUCTS.................................... CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS....................... FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................ AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY S E R V I C E S . . . IRON ORE H I N I N G .................................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .000000 .005960 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .028939 .1 5 9 6 2 9 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE H I N I N G .............................................................................. OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G .................................. COAL H I N I N G ............................................................................................... CRUDE PETROLEUM.................................................................................... STONE AND CLAY H I N I N G AND QUARRYING............................ .000000 .000000 .000029 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 06 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000067 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 27 0 .000000 .00 0 03 2 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000269 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 25 5 .00 0 00 0 .000000 11. 12. 13. 19. 15 . CHEMICAL AND F E R T I L I Z E R M I N I N G ......................................... NEW R E S I D E N T I A L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION....................... NEW NON RE S ID E NT IA L B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION.............. NEW P U B LI C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION.................................. NEN HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................................................... .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000018 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 16. 17. 18. 19 . 20. A L L OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION..................................................... MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION........................... GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................... OTHER ORDNANCE...................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .00 0 25 9 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000668 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 2 .000000 .00 3 09 1 .000000 .000000 .00 0 0 7 1 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 68 1 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000029 .00 0 00 0 .000698 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 98 2 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 03 5 21. 22. 23. 29. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING................................................................... F A B R I C , YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S .......................................... MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R I N G S . . . . HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................ APPAREL.......................................................................................................... .000000 .23 1 06 0 .00 9 29 5 . 1 70 3 9 9 .111920 .00 0 00 0 .39 9 56 9 .112097 .007713 .01 0 77 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000001 .000000 .00 1 57 8 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 09 9 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 19 2 .000000 .09 8 39 3 .03 0 20 2 .000000 .00 1 92 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 82 9 .021167 .000000 .001053 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS FABRIC ATED T E X T I L E PRODUCTS............ LOGGING, SA W MI LLS , AND PLANING M I L L S ......................... MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S . . . . HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................ OTHER FU R NIT URE ................................................................................... .022688 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 2 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .10 8 25 1 .00 0 00 0 .003166 .000679 .000038 .00 0 09 7 . 212516 .033190 .00 1 02 3 .000019 .00 0 13 9 .252799 .13 2 95 3 .00 3 01 3 .000033 .00 0 69 8 .068096 .062030 .015897 .003931 .00 0 52 1 .02 3 96 8 .05 7 99 9 .01 8 13 7 .01 9 68 1 31. 32. 33. 39. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................... PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................. P U B L I S H I N G ................................................................................................. P R I N T I N G ....................................................................................................... CHEMICAL PRODUCTS.............................................................................. .00 0 51 8 .00 9 91 8 .00 0 08 7 .000009 .000069 .00 6 33 8 .00 7 15 7 .00 0 07 1 .000052 .00 0 05 1 .000569 .00 0 60 2 .00 0 11 0 .000002 .002252 .00 9 92 5 .002922 .00 0 07 3 .00 0 12 3 .015392 . 000796 .01 0 69 8 .00 0 10 7 .000002 .00 1 95 7 .00 0 79 6 .013795 .00 0 13 0 .00 0 06 1 .00 0 39 5 36. 37. 38. 39. 90. AGRICULTURAL C H E M IC A L S ................................................................ P L A S T I C MATE RIALS AND SYN THE TIC RUBBER.................... SYN THE TIC F I B E R S ................................................................................ DRUGS............................................................................................................... CLEANING AND T O I L E T PREPARATIONS.................................... .000109 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 08 5 .000182 .00 0 00 0 .00 8 56 9 .000000 .000179 . 000992 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000102 .000239 .00 3 99 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 06 9 .00 0 07 5 .00 0 13 1 .001697 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000078 .000169 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000170 91. 92. 93. 99. 95. P A I N T ............................................................................................................... PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................... RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................................................................... P L A S T I C PRODUCTS................................................................................ LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS................. .000002 .00 0 59 9 .000919 .002001 .00 2 9 5 1 .00 0 00 2 .00 0 51 0 .00 3 36 6 .05 6 68 6 .001091 .001920 .00 7 30 8 .000996 . 000059 .000299 .00 7 67 3 .00 1 6 1 1 .00 0 22 7 .00 9 22 2 .00 0 27 2 .019985 .00 1 23 3 .01 3 2 0 1 .09 9 38 9 .000762 .01 6 06 7 .001538 .007925 . 077693 .00 0 80 8 96. 97. 98. 99. 50. GLASS............................................................................................................... CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................ MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................... BLAST FURNACES AND B ASI C STEEL PRODUCTS................. IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................... .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000001 .000002 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 50 2 .000000 .00 0 19 9 .000991 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000209 .003989 .006299 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 88 0 .000120 .009009 .01 2 87 9 .00 0 00 0 .006959 .00 0 00 0 .000011 .02 5 23 9 .00 0 00 0 .02 0 26 6 .00 0 58 2 .00 5 13 8 .09 1 10 6 .00 0 00 0 51. 52. 53. 59. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS................................................................... PRIMARY ALUMINUM................................................................................. OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L . . COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING..................................................... ALUMINUM ROL LING AND DRAWING............................................... .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000731 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 03 7 .000058 .00 0 00 7 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 1 18 2 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .006783 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 8 78 8 56 . 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROL LING AND DRAWING......................... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS................. METAL CONTA INE RS ................................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S ................. FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL.................................................. .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 12 2 .000028 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000095 .000000 .00 0 02 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 7 .002938 .00 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 0 1 1 .000021 .000066 .001895 .00 0 03 8 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000372 .00 8 28 0 61. 62. 63. 69. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................ OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS....................................... E NG IN ES , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS.................................. FARM MACHINERY...................................................................................... CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MA CHIN ER Y.. .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000996 .00 0 21 7 .000906 .00 0 00 0 .000007 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .008139 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 3 29 9 .026025 .00 0 00 0 .000019 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 5 0 9 .061258 .000017 .00 0 17 8 .000000 .010738 .03 8 92 7 .00 0 00 0 .000961 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 19 2 TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970— CONTINUED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE MISCELLA NEOUS LOGGING, FABRICATED SAW MILLS, TE XT ILE AND PLANING PRODUCTS MILLS 26 27 APPAREL 25 MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS 28 HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE 29 OTHER FURNITURE 30 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT.................... ....................... .. METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................ S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY..................................................... GENERAL IN D U S T R I A L MACHINERY............................................... MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... .00 0 14 7 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000013 .000160 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 34 3 .000012 .000746 .00 0 00 0 .004637 .00 0 10 6 .00 0 14 0 .000402 .000011 .00 2 23 9 .00 0 63 3 .000046 .00 0 25 3 .000020 .00 0 03 0 .00 0 0 5 1 .000031 .00 0 19 5 .000556 .000169 .001460 .00 1 71 3 71. 72. 73. 74. 75. COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT.............................. TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES....................... SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................ ELECT RIC TRANS MIS SION EQUIPMENT....................................... ELE CTR ICA L I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................... .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000121 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 06 8 .000000 .000020 .000109 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000047 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000052 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 05 7 .004640 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 36 5 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. HOUSEHOLD A PP L IA N C E S ..................................................................... ELE CT R IC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N SETS........................................................ TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS................................. OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION E Q U I P M E N T . . . . . . .00 0 00 0 .000006 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 01 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 0 0 6 6 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 01 0 .000016 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 11 2 . 000104 .00 0 1 4 8 .000000 .000000 .00 0 06 0 .00 0 05 5 .005914 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 27 4 .000000 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER ELE CTR ICA L MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... A IR C R A F T ...................................................................................................... SH IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R .................................. .000023 .00 0 01 6 .000006 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 26 3 .00 0 01 7 .00 0 00 6 .00 0 11 9 .000069 .000095 .00 0 21 2 .0 0 0 0 7 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 41 6 .00 0 04 4 .00 0 02 8 .00 0 16 6 .0 0 0 1 9 1 .001471 .000042 .000015 .000000 .00 0 0 3 7 .00 3 15 2 .00 0 17 2 .00 0 03 5 .00 0 60 5 .000000 86. 87 . 88. 89. 90. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T . . . MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.................... S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................... MEDICAL AND DENTAL INSTRUMENTS.......................................... OP TI C AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT.................................... .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 65 9 .000233 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 1 44 3 .00 0 14 2 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 48 3 .00 0 23 4 .00 0 04 7 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000361 .00 0 16 4 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 45 6 .00 0 06 0 .00 1 5 8 4 .000208 .000028 .00 0 00 0 .00 4 5 7 1 .00 2 43 2 .000233 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION............................................................. LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .01 6 68 8 .000576 .00 0 00 0 .003665 .000033 .004031 .00 1 10 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 4 2 6 1 .000000 .000218 .009682 .00 0 00 0 .01 1 2 3 8 .00 0 03 6 .00 2 83 8 .01 5 85 2 .00 0 00 0 .01 0 45 4 .000000 .00 1 9 0 6 .008676 .00 0 00 0 .007947 .000002 .001266 .006985 .000000 .00 7 02 8 96. 97. 98. 99. 100. WATER TRANSPORTATION...................................................................... A IR TRANSPORTATION........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................ .000058 .00 0 18 4 .000045 .00 5 0 5 1 .00 0 00 0 .000042 .00 0 23 5 .000058 .00 4 22 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 3 95 3 .0 0 0 6 2 1 .00 0 12 5 .004041 .000000 .00 2 71 4 .00 0 26 8 .00 0 06 5 .00 4 15 e .00 0 00 0 .00 0 33 7 .000290 .0 0 0 0 4 3 .00 5 90 7 .000000 .00 0 17 8 .00 0 34 5 .000096 .00 7 38 8 .00 0 00 0 101. 102. 103. 1 09. 105. ELE CTRIC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... WATER AND SANITARY S ER VI CE S .................................................. WHOLESALE TRADE................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................ .00 2 26 0 .000166 .00 0 20 0 .03 0 84 9 .001695 .00 2 59 4 .000286 .00 0 4 8 1 .03 8 00 7 .002796 .00 7 93 3 .00 1 2 5 8 .00 0 36 2 . 02 0595 .001878 .00 6 55 7 .00 1 31 9 .000317 .032837 .00 1 90 2 .00 4 90 0 .000446 .000304 .03 7 7 0 3 .00 2 67 3 .005200 .001274 .00 0 29 5 .031745 .00 2 41 3 106. 10 7 . 108. 109. 110. F IN A N C E ......................................................................................................... INSURANCE.................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS.......................................................... OTHER REAL ESTATE.............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................ .00 2 84 8 .001514 .00 0 00 0 .00 9 06 5 .000000 .002492 .00 2 17 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 6 16 1 .000000 .003913 .007608 .00 0 00 0 .00 5 59 3 .00 0 00 0 .003284 .00 1 97 2 .00 0 00 0 .00 8 78 9 .000000 .002868 .004832 .00 0 00 0 .01 6 58 0 .000000 .004698 . 006054 .00 0 00 0 .01 1 75 7 .000000 111. 112. 113. 115. OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI CE S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S ER VI C E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS I N G .............................................................................................. MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL SER VI CE S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ............................................................................. .000105 .004908 .00 4 58 2 .001450 .000611 .000452 .003770 .00 2 96 7 .00 1 45 3 .00 0 59 7 .00 0 00 0 .01 3 9 9 6 .001835 .003710 .00 5 60 0 .00 0 02 9 .00 6 82 9 .00 3 86 7 .002262 .00 1 08 3 .000206 .00 7 7 4 4 . 008876 .002117 .00 1 32 0 .00 0 20 5 .00 7 68 0 .00 5 96 3 .00 2 55 2 .001514 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S PI TA L S ..................................... H O S P IT A L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIONAL S ER VI CE S ...................................................................... .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 0 0 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS ............................................................. POST O F F I C E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION............................................... OTHER FEDERAL ENTERPRISES ........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E NTE RP RI SES .................... .000368 .002327 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000027 .00 0 30 9 .001419 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000097 .00 0 32 8 .00 0 50 3 .000000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .000302 .00 0 33 7 .00 0 74 8 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000069 .0 0 0 4 4 1 .00 1 17 2 .000000 .000000 .00 0 06 4 .00 0 55 2 .001446 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000092 126. 127. 128. 129. DIRECTLY ALLOCATED IMP ORT S..................................................... TRANSFERRED IMP ORTS........................................................................ BUSINESS TR AVEL, ENTERT AIN MEN T, AND G I F T S ............ O FF IC E S U P P L I E S ................................................................................... TO TAL............................................................................................................... .000720 .005481 .004862 .00 0 56 7 .65 9 18 8 .000000 .003254 .00 4 34 1 .00 0 40 9 .77 2 55 6 .00 0 00 0 .065517 .00 2 98 2 .00 0 32 5 .64 8 6 0 2 .00 0 15 2 .051078 .00 5 12 5 .000422 .656075 .00 0 20 1 . OOOOOC .00 7 06 3 .000638 .609838 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 5 61 5 .00 0 79 9 .583973 1 1 a. 19 3 TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINOED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE PAPER PRODUCTS PAPERBOARD 31 32 PUBLISHING 33 PRINTING 34 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 35 AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 36 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS............. . CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS......... FORESTRY AND FISHERIES.......................... . AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY SERVICES... IRON ORE MINING.................................. .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 . oooooo .000000 .000000 .000000 .oooooo .oooooo .000000 .000000 .OOOOOO .000000 .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo •OOOOOO .OOOOOO .000961 . 001582 .OOOOOO .004564 .OOOOOO .000030 .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .OOOOOO 6. 7. 8. 9, 10. COPPER ORE MINING................................ OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE MINING.............. COAL MINING...................................... CRUDE PETROLEUM.................................. . STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING........... .oooooo .000000 .005187 .oooooo .004838 .oooooo .oooooo .000136 .oooooo .000074 . oooooo . oooooo .000017 .oooooo .oooooo .000000 •OOOOOO .000057 .oooooo .oooooo .002223 .003936 .003768 . 001807 .002175 .OOOOOO .oooooo .000095 .oooooo .001068 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER M INING................. NEB RESIDENTIAL BULIDING CONSTRUCTION......... NEB NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION...... NEB PUBLIC UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION.............. NEB HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................ .001114 .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .oo o o o o .ooo ooo .oooooo .ooo ooo .ooo ooo . oooooo . oooooo .ooo ooo .o o o o o o .oooooo .ooo ooo . oooooo .025904 . OOOOOO .OOOOOO .OOOOOO . OOOOOO .075784 .OOOOOO 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION................... . MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION........... GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES............ OTHER ORDNANCE................................... FOOD PRODUCTS......... .......................... .oo o o o o .o o o ooo .ooo ooo .oooooo .002480 . oooooo .oo o o o o .001723 .001046 .001310 .000907 . oooooo .007981 .000044 .000039 .000104 .001452 .OOOOOO .003223 .OOOOOO .000005 .012167 .010683 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING........................... FABRIC, YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S ................. MISCELLANEOUS TEXTILES AND FLOOR COVERINGS.... HOSIERY AND KNIT GOODS.......................... APP A R E L ........................................... .0 0 0 0 0 0 .ooo ooo .oooooo .ooo ooo .006045 .003381 .000060 .000710 .oooooo .000016 .000148 .000927 .oooooo .000003 . oooooo .oooooo .000592 .004127 .oooooo .oooooo . OOOOOO .000167 .000032 .OOOOOO .000371 .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .000402 .002235 .060444 .004020 .oooooo . oooooo .001142 .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .000008 .003635 .oooooo .001855 .000018 .001948 .000990 .OOOOOO .000003 .010685 .000050 .000664 .OOOOOO .OOOOOO .ooo ooo .oooooo . oooooo .oooooo .oo o o o o .oooooo .ooo ooo .0 0 0 0 0 0 . oooooo . oooooo . oooooo .002614 . oooooo .ooo ooo 26. MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED TEXTILE PRODUCTS..... 27. LOGGING, SAWMILLS, AND PLANING MILLS.......... 28. MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER HOOD PRODUCTS___ 29. HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE............................ . 30. OTHER FURNITURE.................................. .000005 .000062 .000061 .001633 .000061 .000036 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS.................................. . PAPERBOARD...................................... . . PUBLISHING........................................ PRINTING.......................................... CHEMICAL PRODUCTS.............................. . .163199 .030038 .000506 .009201 .038685 .398785 .033318 .000167 .009365 .017345 .125000 .001601 .070043 .126304 .006363 .155107 .009318 .063589 .049744 .044256 .010119 .005265 .000123 .000036 . 157174 .025990 .002518 .000117 .000003 .343110 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS.......................... PLASTIC MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC R U B B E R...... . SYNTHETIC FIBERS................................. DRUGS............................................. CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS............... .000024 .016954 .000000 .000007 .000869 .000047 .009074 .000000 .000055 .000129 .000138 .000000 .000000 .000068 .000296 .004996 .000000 .000085 .000077 .008167 .020458 .004592 .006662 .006275 .071046 .006542 .OOOOOO .003053 .002703 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. PA I N T ............................................ . PETROLEUM PRODUCTS.............................. RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................. PLASTIC PRODUCTS................................. LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS....... .000035 .008130 .004050 .024530 .000188 .000002 .006758 .000085 .005691 .000055 .000176 .001949 .001343 . OOOOOO . 000014 .002904 .002854 .001795 .012733 .000066 .003946 .064634 . 001408 .000067 .000182 .002227 .011374 .000176 .001947 .000069 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. GLA S S ............................................. CEMENT, CLAY, AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS........... MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS......... BLAST FURNACES AND BASIC STEEL PRODUCTS....... IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS......... .0 0 0 0 0 0 .001 655 .OOOOOO .000002 .000000 .000000 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .000004 .OOOOOO .000000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .000000 .000002 .000278 .000000 .000715 .002237 .000872 .006735 .002265 .OOOOOO .000565 .000567 .000005 .000066 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS........................... PRIMARY ALUMINUM................................. OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL.. COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING...................... ALUMINUM ROLLING AND DRA W I N G................... .0 0 0 0 0 0 .ooo ooo .ooo ooo .oooooo .o o o o o o .oooooo .001073 .003682 •OOOOOO .000000 . oooooo •OOOOOO . oooooo .000756 .001239 .009602 .000101 .000010 .OOOOOO . OOOOOO .OOOOOO •OOOOOO .OOOOOO 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING......... . MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS....... METAL CONTAINERS................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING FIXTURES....... FABRICATED STRUCTURAL M ETAL.................... .000000 .oooooo .000020 .oooooo .000067 .OOOOOO .001317 .OOOOOO .009823 .000022 .000020 . OOOOOO .OOOOOO .004362 .000072 .OOOOOO 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS.......................... OTHER FABRICATED METAL P R O D U C T S ................ ENGINES, TURBINES, AND GENERATORS............. FARM MACHINERY................................... CONSTRUCTION, MINING, AND OILFIELD MACHINERY.. .000034 .014211 .000000 .OOOOOO .000000 .003 03 0 .004416 .000057 .006499 .OOOOOO •OOOOOO .000014 .OOOOOO .000529 .OOOOOO .000016 •OOOOOO .0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 00000 .002124 .002261 .000106 .000053 .000000 .000000 .0 00000 .006927 .000000 .000154 .000000 .000000 .0 0 0 0 0 0 19 4 . oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .000192 .oooooo .oooooo .oooooo .000000 .o o o o o o .000001 .000139 .000060 .000486 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .000199 .0 0 0 0 0 0 •OOOOOO .000111 .003043 .0 00000 .000000 .OOOOOO TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINOED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE PAPER PRODUCTS 31 PAPERBOARD 32 P U B LI S H IN G 33 PRINTING 34 CHEMICAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS 35 36 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT.................................................. METALBORKING MACHINERY ................................................................ S P E C I A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY..................................................... GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY................................................ MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................... .00 0 61 9 .000008 .002439 .002234 .00 0 01 9 .000196 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 64 1 .000041 .00 0 02 6 .000105 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 99 9 .00 0 02 4 .000061 .00 0 18 3 .00 0 04 3 .00 3 18 0 .000672 .000027 .00 0 64 8 .00 0 39 0 .010088 .001778 .000020 .000282 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000194 . 0 00 03 1 71. 72. 73. 79. 75. COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQU IPMENT............................... TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES....................... SER VICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................ ELE CTR IC TRANS MIS SION EQUIPMENT....................................... ELE CTR ICA L I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................... .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000016 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 6 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 01 2 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 7 .000014 .001836 .00 1 04 9 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 76. 77. 78. 79. 8 0. HOUSEHOLD APP L IA NC ES ...................................................................... E LEC TR IC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ............................................... RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N SETS........................................................ TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................. OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT.............. .00 0 00 0 .000030 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000058 .000007 .000009 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000021 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 01 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 . 000012 .000044 .000000 .000025 .000000 .000010 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 81. 82. 83. 84. 85. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................... OTHER ELE CT R IC AL MACHINERY..................................................... MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................... A IR C R A F T ....................................................................................................... SH IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R ................................. .000000 .000206 .000018 .00 0 00 8 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 06 8 .00 0 01 3 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 07 5 .00 0 03 9 .000341 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 18 7 .00 0 04 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000063 .000037 .000018 .000004 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 04 4 .000016 .000000 .00 0 00 0 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T . . . MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.................... S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................... MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUM ENTS.......................................... OP TI C AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT.................................... .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 7 .000630 .000104 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 28 0 .000135 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000017 .000191 .000093 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 08 7 .00 0 38 4 .00 0 18 5 .000000 .000000 .00 0 01 1 .000130 .000064 .000029 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 16 7 .000060 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................ MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................ RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION............................................................. LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS....................................... TRUCK TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... .001724 .00 0 36 0 .01 9 23 1 .000000 .012101 .00 0 0 0 0 .00 0 15 6 .018774 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 6 8 8 1 .009655 .00 0 11 4 .004999 .000000 . 00 2 8 1 1 .017692 .00 3 38 0 .00 6 28 4 .00 0 00 0 .00 4 22 0 .000095 . 001156 .0 1 1 9 2 5 .000000 .00 5 53 5 .00 0 00 0 .000049 .02 1 59 6 .00 0 00 0 .013488 96. 97. 98. 99. 100. WATER TRANSPORTATION...................................................................... A IR TRANSPORTATION........................................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION..................................................................... COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................ RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................ .00 1 68 4 .0 0 0 1 9 1 .000119 .004343 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 17 5 .00 0 09 5 .00 0 05 9 .00 6 02 4 .000000 .00 0 03 3 .000050 .000038 .02 1 39 9 .000000 .000105 .00 0 15 5 .00 0 07 6 .006974 .000000 .001303 .000328 .00 0 20 4 .00 5 1 5 6 . 000000 .003009 .00 1 26 1 .00 0 14 8 .00 4 86 5 .000000 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. E LEC TR IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................... GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................... WATER AND SAN ITARY S E R V I C E S .................................................. WHOLESALE TRADE................................................................................... R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................ .01 3 01 6 .006039 .003556 .03 5 01 4 .002091 .005003 .00 1 16 8 .0 0 0 2 2 8 .020514 .001516 .0 0 3 2 0 7 .000353 .000272 .01 3 40 0 .006150 .005567 .000941 .000460 .02 0 24 0 .004311 . 016872 .019224 .00 2 02 3 .02 6 33 6 .002792 .008749 .002744 .000495 .038782 .003312 106. 107. 108. 109. 110. F IN A N C E .......................................................................................................... INSURANCE.................................................................................................... OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS........................................................... OTHEH REAL E ST AT E.............................................................................. HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................ .00 3 17 9 .003004 .000000 .005751 .000000 .001874 .001641 .00 0 00 0 .00 8 59 0 .000000 .00 6 7 9 1 .00 1 46 3 .00 0 00 0 .062914 .00 0 00 0 .00 4 50 5 .001751 .00 0 00 0 .02 0 91 2 .000000 .003272 .002680 .00 0 00 0 .00 5 46 5 .00 0 00 0 .003332 .00 1 63 5 .000000 .00 2 81 8 .00 0 00 0 111. 112. 113. 1 14 . 115. OTHER PERSONAL S E R VI C E S ............................................................. MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R VI C E S ....................................... A D V E R T IS I N G ........................................................ .. ................................... MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VI CE S ............................ AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R .............................................................................. .00 0 83 5 .009445 .005208 .00 4 09 5 .000872 .00 1 06 6 .01 0 64 9 .005094 .003380 .00 1 16 7 .000834 .02 2 05 8 .01 2 28 8 .008214 .0 0 2 9 0 9 .00 1 18 2 .010425 .00 4 90 6 .004031 .001254 . 000 40 1 .012801 .006539 .004874 .00 0 90 3 .00 0 1 0 1 .00 7 23 9 .00 9 62 7 .00 3 16 7 .00 1 32 3 116. 117. 118. 119. 120. MOTION P IC TU RE S .................................................................................... OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................ HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT HO S PI TA L S .................................... H O S PI TA L S .................................................................................................... EDUCATIONAL S E R V I C E S ..................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 . 000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 121. 122. 123. 124. 125. NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS ............................................................. POST O F F I C E .............................................................................................. COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION............................................... OTHER FEDERAL ENTE RP RISE S........................................................ STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ENTE RP RISE S .................... .000335 .000903 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 37 2 .00 0 45 6 .000854 .000000 .000000 .000058 .001880 .01 4 7 1 4 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000370 .000684 .005195 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000083 .00 0 3 5 9 .00 0 80 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 27 5 .00 0 41 3 .000343 .000773 .00 0 00 0 .006232 .000086 126. 127. 128. 129. DIRE CTLY ALLOCATED IMPORTS..................................................... TRANSFERRED IM PO RT S........................................................................ BUSINESS TR A V E L , ENTERT AIN MEN T, AND G I F T S ............ O FFI CE S U P P L I E S ................................................................................... TO TA L............................................................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .07 6 75 9 .0 0 5 3 7 1 .000465 .637330 .000000 .00 0 63 4 .00 3 7 2 1 .000551 .608317 .000000 .000000 .019005 .002083 .556928 .00 0 09 6 .000096 .013927 .00 1 21 2 .51 1 09 4 .00 4 22 0 .03 4 46 5 .00 7 15 9 .00 0 50 0 .591554 .002616 .023540 .00 9 12 0 .00 0 47 9 .750894 19 5 TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970— CONTINUED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE PLA S TI C MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC RUBBER 37 SYN THETIC FIBERS 38 DRUGS 39 CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS 40 P A IN T PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 42 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. L IVE ST OCK AND LIVE ST OC K PRODUCTS.................................. CROPS AND OTHEF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.................... FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S ............................................................. AGRIC ULTUR E, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY S E R V I C E S . . IRON ORE M I N I N G ................................................................................. .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 . 0 0 0 000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 60 5 .00 0 24 9 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000392 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. COPPER ORE M I N I N G ........................................................................... OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G ............................... COAL M I N I N G ............................................................................................ CRUDE PETROLEUM................................................................................. STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND QUARRYING.......................... .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 62 8 .000000 .00 0 07 4 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 5 69 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000436 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 22 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 69 1 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 11 0 .00 0 00 0 .002114 .000000 .000000 .000406 .42907 ) .00 4 37 7 11. 12. 13 . 14 . 15. CHEMICAL AND F E R T I L I Z E R M I N I N G . . . . ............................ NEW R E S I D E N T I A L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION.................... NEW NO NR E S ID E NT IA L B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION............ NEW P U B LI C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION............................... NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................................................ .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000501 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 03 1 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 16. 17 . 18. 19. 20. A LL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION.................................................. MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION......................... GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................ OTHER ORDNANCE.................................................................................... FOOD PRODUCTS...................................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .00 2 91 5 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 3 05 9 .000000 .001585 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 65 2 .000000 .00 2 96 4 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .02 6 04 2 .000000 .000894 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .033439 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 50 3 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .034114 .00 0 00 0 .01 2 10 8 .000000 .000003 .001086 21. 22 . 23. 24. 25. TOBACCO MANUFACTURING................................................................ F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S ....................................... MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S . . . HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS............................................................. APPAREL....................................................................................................... .00 0 00 0 .000248 .000141 .000000 .00 0 31 6 .000000 .00 0 1 6 1 .00 0 06 0 .000000 .000637 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 33 7 .000001 .000000 .00 0 36 6 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 3 .000001 .00 0 00 0 .000347 .000000 .00 0 28 6 .00 0 00 1 .00 0 00 0 .000376 .00 0 00 3 .000002 .00 0 00 5 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 16 8 26. 27. 28 . 29. 30. MISCELLANEOUS FABR ICAT ED T E X T I L E P R O D U C T S . . . . LOGGING, SAW MIL LS , AND PLANING M I L L S ....................... MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C TS .. . HOUSEHOLD F U R NI TU RE ..................................................................... OTHER FUR NITU RE ................................................................................. .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .001454 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000332 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000201 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 08 4 .002074 .00 0 38 6 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000094 .000492 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000028 .000277 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. PAPER PRODUCTS................................................................................... PAPEREOARD............................................................................................... P U B L I S H I N G .............................................................................................. P R I N T I N G .................................................................................................... CHEMICAL PRODUCTS........................................................................... .01 6 40 2 .006223 .000099 .0 0 0 0 0 1 .428251 .063733 .00 4 94 8 .00 0 12 4 .000002 .23 5 54 4 .00 4 20 9 .01 4 09 5 .00 0 17 4 .000301 .05 4 81 1 .01 1 74 0 .028651 .000117 .00 6 82 3 .11 9 84 3 .00 0 4 8 8 .00 7 06 1 .00 0 15 5 .000001 .20 5 8 2 1 .00 5 40 3 .00 2 93 5 .00 0 05 1 .000001 .03 1 07 8 36. 37. 38. 39. 40. AGRICULTURAL CHE MI CA LS ............................................................. P L A S T I C MATE RIALS AND SYNT HE TIC RUBBER................. SYN THE TIC F I B E R S . ... ....................................................................... DRUGS............................................................................................................ CLEANING AND T O I L E T PREPARATIONS......................... .000941 .02 5 57 4 .00 9 39 5 .000000 .00 3 30 2 .00 0 00 2 .00 0 02 5 .000939 .00 0 00 0 .000271 .0 0 0 1 1 1 .003648 .00 0 00 0 .09 1 73 4 .015425 .003275 .00 2 95 9 .00 0 04 4 .02 9 16 0 .038871 .00 0 15 8 .102939 .00 0 00 0 .000167 .00 5 73 7 .00 0 01 2 .000020 .00 0 00 0 .000020 .00 2 36 4 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. P A I N T ............................................................................................................ PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................ RUBBER PRODUCTS................................................................................. P L A S T I C PRODUCTS.............................................................................. LEA THER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.............. .00 5 01 3 .023354 .006265 .03 5 79 3 .000053 .00 0 00 1 .001342 .000216 .006401 .000081 .0 0 0 0 0 1 .00 2 45 0 .000998 .02 6 33 4 • 000028 .002277 •00893U .003000 .07 6 83 5 .000017 .00 0 20 3 .039480 .00 0 30 5 .00 9 04 6 .000027 .00 1 00 6 .07 9 63 8 .00 0 07 2 .00 0 00 0 .000085 46. 47. 48. 49. 50. GLA S S ............................................................................................................. CEMENT, C L A Y, AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS......................... MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.................... BLAST FURNACES AND BASI C STEEL PRODUCTS.............. IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.................... .00 0 16 3 .00 0 00 0 .000071 .00 0 03 3 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000001 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .0 1 7 7 9 1 .00 0 00 0 .00 1 04 4 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .017843 .00 0 09 8 .00 2 08 0 .000049 .00 0 00 0 . C 0 02 2 2 .00 0 62 6 .003134 .000009 .003008 .000000 .00 2 23 5 .001321 .000067 .00 0 00 0 51. 52. 53. 54. 55. PRIMARY COPPER METALS................................................................ PRIMARY ALUMINUM.............................................................................. OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL. COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING.................................................. ALUMINUM RO LLI NG AND DRAWING............................................. .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000036 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 8 63 9 .000000 .00 0 00 0 . OOOOOC .00 0 20 2 .00 0 17 3 .000000 .00 0 00 0 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. OTHER NONFERROUS ROL LING AND DRAWING....................... MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.............. METAL CON TA INE RS .............................................................................. HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S .............. FABRIC ATED STRUCTURAL METAL ............................................... .00 0 02 3 .00 0 00 0 .003336 .00 0 00 0 .000039 .00 0 79 6 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 . 000000 .005857 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .02 6 71 4 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 05 0 .00 0 00 0 .069002 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 1 6 7 .00 1 78 3 .000000 .00 6 97 8 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 43 1 61. 62. 63. 64. 65. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS............................................................. OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS.................................... EN G IN ES , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS............................... FARM MACHINERY................................................................................... CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MACHINERY. .00 0 00 0 .00 0 41 9 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000256 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 2 05 3 .003248 .000000 .000000 .000000 .00 4 24 4 .01 4 18 7 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000093 •00057U .000000 .OOOOOC .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 3 .00 0 35 2 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 19 6 TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQOIREHENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970— CONTINUED (PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS) INDUSTRY CODE P LA S TI C MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC RUBBER 37 SYNT HE TIC FI BER S 38 DRUGS 39 CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS 40 P AI NT 41 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 42 66 . 67. 68. 69. 7 0. MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT............................................... HETALWOBKING MACHINERY............................................................. S P E C IA L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.................................................. GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY............................................ MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................ .00 0 21 9 . 000000 .000000 .00 0 10 6 .000012 .00 0 34 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000317 .00 0 01 4 .000129 . 000000 . 000000 .00 0 01 0 .00 0 32 9 .00 0 08 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 01 3 .00 0 09 3 .00 0 01 2 .00 0 13 1 .000139 . OOOOOO .00 0 13 6 .000022 .00 0 31 7 .000000 .000006 .00 0 11 8 .00 0 01 1 71. 72. 73. 79. 75. COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT............................ TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES.................... SER VICE INDUSTRY MACHINES..................................................... E LEC TR IC TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT.................................... ELE CTR ICA L IN D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.................................... .00 0 00 0 . 000000 . 000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 . 000000 . 000000 .00 0 00 0 . 000000 .000000 .00 0 00 5 .000000 .000000 .00 0 01 4 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .000088 . OOOOOO .00 0 01 7 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 . OOOOOO .OOOOOO 76. 77. 78. 79. 80. HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA NC ES ................................................................... ELE CTRIC L IG H T I N G AND H I R I N G ............................................ RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ETS ..................................................... TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS............................... OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT............ .00 0 04 2 .000003 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 .000006 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 . 000000 .000970 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000156 . OOOOOO .00 0 00 5 . OOOOOO .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 01 9 .000028 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 3 .00 0 02 7 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 81. 82 . 83. 84. 85. ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................ OTHER ELE CTR ICA L MACHINERY.................................................. MOTOR V E H IC L E S ................................................................................... A IR CR A FT .................................................................................................... S H IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R ............................... . 000000 .000016 .00 0 01 4 .000014 .000030 .00 0 00 0 .000017 .00 0 00 7 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 02 3 .000018 .000000 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 01 8 .000005 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 0 0 0 .000028 .000010 .000000 .00 0 00 0 . OOOOOO .00 0 01 9 .000007 .00 0 00 0 .000000 86. 87 . 88. 89. 90. RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQ U IP ME NT .. MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT................. S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS................. MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUMENTS....................................... OP TI C AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT.................................. .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000021 .000097 .000047 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000195 .000095 .00 0 00 0 .0 0 0 0 0 0 .000066 .01 1 7 5 6 .00 0 05 4 .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 6 04 2 .00 0 04 4 .00 0 00 0 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .00 0 11 5 .000056 .000000 . OOOOOO .000000 .00 0 04 8 .000023 91. 92. 93 . 94. 95. PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ......................... MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS......................... RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION........................................................... LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS.................................... TRUCK TRANSPORTATION................................................................... . 000000 .000074 .008648 .000000 .00 4 12 3 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 07 1 .01 3 98 4 .00 0 00 0 .004194 .00 0 0 4 1 .00 0 05 5 .00 2 6 4 0 . 000000 .006315 .000000 .003089 .008087 . OOOOOO .00 8 75 8 . OOOOOO .00 0 2 8 2 .008336 . OOOOOO .007735 .000040 .000156 .00 2 89 4 . OOOOOO .00 5 62 8 96. 97. 98. 99. 100. HATER TRANSPORTATION................................................................... A IR T RANSPORTATION......................................................................... OTHER TRANSPORTATION................................................................... COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ......................... RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING..................................................... .00 0 47 4 .00 0 19 7 .000037 .004101 .000000 .000746 .00 0 19 2 .00 0 04 1 . 0 0 6 22 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 2 1 1 .00 0 40 7 .000061 .0 0 7 8 5 9 .000000 .00 0 36 6 .00 0 41 6 .00 0 10 2 .004776 .00 0 00 0 .000714 .00 0 26 3 .0 0 0 3 4 9 .007196 . OOOOOO .00 5 32 9 .00 0 05 9 .02 5 35 9 .001844 . OOOOOO 1 01 . 102. 103. 104. 105. ELE CT R IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................ GAS U T I L I T I E S ...................................................................................... HATER AND SANITARY S E R VI C E S ............................................... WHOLESALE TRADE .................................................. ............................. R E T A IL TRADE......................................................................................... .0 0 7 9 6 1 .00 2 86 8 .00 1 04 7 .02 8 22 2 .002392 .00 4 34 6 .00 3 78 8 .00 1 05 9 .02 3 24 1 .001378 .003901 .00 0 65 1 .00 0 20 5 .02 9 46 0 .00 5 31 5 .002181 .00 1 02 3 .00 0 37 5 .031804 .004041 .003384 .000816 .000450 .0 4 3 8 9 9 .00 7 03 6 .00 6 41 3 .012490 .001357 .019956 .00 2 00 5 106. 107. 108. 1 09 . 110. F IN A N C E ...................... .. ............................................................................. INSURANCE................................................................................................. OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS........................................................ OTHER REAL ESTAT E........................................................................... HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES..................................................... .003822 .00 0 91 3 .00 0 00 0 .005716 .00 0 00 0 .00 5 83 3 .00 1 26 9 .00 0 00 0 .00 5 97 6 .000000 .006771 .00 1 81 4 .00 0 00 0 .01 0 36 0 . 000000 .00 3 77 7 .00 1 36 4 .000000 .00 6 73 9 .000000 .005380 . 001496 .000000 .00 7 55 2 .00 0 00 0 .009245 . 002744 . OOOOOO .019165 .00 0 00 0 111. 112. 113 . 1 14. 1 15 . OTHER PERSONAL S E R VI C E S .......................................................... MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R V I C E S .................................... A D V E R T IS I N G ........................................................................................... MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VI CE S ......................... AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ........................................................................... .000365 .008049 .010935 .003635 .00 0 58 5 .000226 .00 9 70 2 .01 3 96 2 .007699 .00 0 71 0 .00 3 21 8 .01 1 2 7 5 .07 6 31 3 .003379 .00 0 91 0 .00 1 40 3 .00 5 99 7 . 142203 .00 2 36 8 .00 0 54 0 .00 2 06 5 .00 5 69 3 . 016 804 .003139 .001054 .00 0 28 4 .013213 .01 1 74 7 .001375 .00 0 49 3 116. 1 17 . 118. 1 19 . 120. MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................ OTHER AMUSEMENTS.............................................................................. HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S .................................. HO S P IT A L S ................................................................................................. EDUCATIONAL S ER VIC ES ................................................................... . OOOOOO .000000 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 00 0 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .00 0 00 0 .00 0 00 0 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .000000 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000000 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .00 0 00 0 • OOOOOO .OOOOOO .00 0 00 0 . OOOOOO .00 0 00 0 121. 122. 123. 12 4 . 125. NONPROFIT OR G AN IZ ATI O NS ........................................................... POST O F F I C E ............................................................................................ COMMODITY CRED IT CORPORATION............................................ OTHER FEDERAL EN TERPR ISES ..................................................... STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ENTE RP RISE S ................. .000289 .00 0 62 6 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 29 0 .000438 .000312 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000058 .0 0 0 5 5 4 .002358 . OOOOOO . OOOOOO .00 0 15 5 .000342 .00 1 85 3 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .000071 .000575 .001502 .00 0 00 0 .000000 .00 0 10 0 .00 0 12 0 .000742 .000000 . OOOOOO .000106 126. 127. 128. 129. DIRECTLY ALLOCATED IMP ORTS .................................................. TRANSFERRED IMP ORTS...................................................................... BUSINESS TRA VEL , EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S . . . . O FF IC E S U P P L I E S ................................................................................. TO TA L............................................................................................................ .000000 .01 1 43 9 .006694 .00 0 40 2 .689146 .00 0 00 0 .