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The Structure of the
U.S. Economy in 1980 and 1985
Projections of gross national
product, its income and demand
composition, input-output relations,
and output, productivity, and
employment,
U.S. Department of Labor
Peter J. Brennan, Secretary
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Julius Shiskin, Commissioner
1975
Bulletin 1831
For salo by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D C. 20402, GPO Bookstores, or
BLS Regional Offices listed on inside back cover. Price 85 cents
Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents
Preface
This bulletin contains projections of employment by industry for 1980
and 1985, based on projections of the labor force, potential gross national
product (GNP), the composition of income and demand GNP, interindustry
relationships, and projections of industry output, average hours, output
per man-hour, and employment. Each of the elements in these projections
is discussed in considerable detail in the chapters which follow. The
methods used in developing the projections are covered in appendix A.
This study is similar in content to earlier research in which projections
were developed for 1970, 1975, and 1980. Some of these earlier studies
are listed at the end of the bulletin. The 1980 projections in this study
replace or update the earlier projections for 1980.
The bulletin is part of a comprehensive coordinated program of the
Bureau of Labor Statistics to provide information on what the U. S. econo
my might be like in coming years under certain assumptions. The primary
use of the employment projections by industry is to provide a framework
for the occupational outlook program of the Bureau. A detailed bulletin on
occupational manpower and training requirements is currently in press
The projections oi potential GNP serve as a benchmark against which to
measure the performance of the economy. The detailed projections of
demand, output, and employment have important uses in providing in
sight into the effects of alternative government policies on the composi
tion of demand, on employment by industry, and, through the use of
an industry-occupational matrix, on employment by occupation. Further,
for business firms, these projections are an important source of informa
tion in developing long-range capital investment programs and in under
standing the changing structure of markets.
The projections presented in this bulletin were summarized in four arti
cles in the December 1973 issue of the Monthly Labor Review and in The
U. S. Economy in 1985, Bulletin 1809 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1974).
Other articles and reports are planned to present additional findings and
evaluations for some of the major topics included in the study. An impor
tant addition to the projections is to be concerned with alternative energy
assumptions. Because of recent rapid changes in the supply of and demand
for energy and the changes these are expected to make in the economy as
a whole over the coming years, the Bureau will be developing projections
which include alternatives to the energy assumptions used in the studies
already published.
The research for this bulletin was carried out in the Bureau’s Division
of Economic Growth under the general supervision of Jack Alterman, then
Assistant Commissioner for Economic Trends and Labor Conditions. Ronald
E. Kutscher, Chief of the Division of Economic Growth, was responsible for
direct supervision of the projections and for preparation of the final report.
The early research on the macro-projections was conducted by Eva E.
Jacobs. The responsibility for this research was later assumed by Charles
T. Bowman, who was assisted by Terry H. Morlan and John H. Tschetter.
The final demand estimates were prepared under the supervision of Donald
P. Eldridge by Arthur J. Andreassen, Richard P. Oliver, Norman C. Saun
ders, Robert A. Sylvester, and Thomas F. Fleming. The updating and pro
jections of the input-output tables were the responsibility of William I.
Karr, who was assisted by Thomas J. Mooney. The projections of output
per man-hour were prepared jointly by Leopold A. Sveikauskas, of the
Division of Productivity Research and John H. Tschetter who, in addition,
developed the projections of output and employment. Marybeth Tschetter
was responsible for the discussion of alternative demand structures. Valerie
A. Personick assisted in the preparation of the industry statements.
IV
C ontents
Page
Introduction............................................................................................................................. ; 1
General assumptions........................................................................................................
1
Assumptions directly affecting rate of economic growth.............................................. 2
Other assumptions........................................................................................................... 2
Methods............................................................................................................................. 2
Qualifications.................................................................................................................... 3
Highlights and implications...................................................................................................
Projected U. S. economic growth.....................................................................................
Income GNP......................................................................................................................
Demand GNP....................................................................................................................
Output and employment...............................
Implications.......................................
4
4
4
5
6
8
Chapter 1. Supply projections of gross national product...................................................
Population.................................
Labor force........................................................................................................................
Employment: persons and jobs.......................................................................................
Hours.................................................................................................................................
Labor productivity (output per man-hour)....................................................................
Supply GNP.......................................................................................................................
12
12
13
17
20
22
23
Chapter 2. Income and demand GNP.................................................................................
Income GNP.............................................
Prices.................................................................................................................................
Demand GNP...................................................................................................................
26
26
38
40
Chapter 3. The structure of demand...................................................................................
Personal consumption expenditures...............................................................................
Gross private domestic investment................................................................................
Net exports.......................................................................................................................
State and local government.............................................................................................
Federal Government........................................................................................................
45
45
55
61
66
67
Chapter 4. Projection of input-output tables.......................................................................
Conventions of input-output tables.................................................................................
Projection of coefficients...................................................................................................
Review of coefficient change by industry..... ..................................................................
Alternative technological possibilities............................................................................
70
70
71
73
77
Chapter 5. Projected changes in industrial composition of output,
productivity, hours, and employment.............................................................................
Output.............................................................................................. !...........................
Productivity....................................................................................................................
Average hours...............................................................................................................
Employment..................................................
80
80
87
91
92
v
C o n te n ts— Continued
Page
Chapter 6. Impact of alternative assumptions on projected
growth of real GNP........................................................................................................... 98
Alternative GNP growth rates..................................................................................... 98
Alternative combinations of factors..............................................................................104
Chapter 7. Impact of alternative structures of demand GNP
on employment.................................................................................................................. 107
Employment associated with various types of demand............................................. 107
Average versus incremental job requirements...........................................................110
Impact of shifts in the structure of demand...............................................................110
Chapter 8. Comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections...................................113
Factors determining real GNP......................................................................................... 113
Distribution of demand GNP............................................................................................ 115
Changes in gross product originating..............................................................................117
Changes in industry output and employment................................................................. 119
Tables:
1. Values of variables used in assumptions, 1955, 1968, 1972, and
projected for 1980 and 1985...................................................................................
2. Major determinants of supply GNP, 1955, 1968, 1972, and projected
for 1980 and 1985....................................................................................................
3. Personal income, sources and disposition, 1955, 1968, 1972, and
projected for 1980 and 1985...................................................................................
4. Changes in GNP and major demand components, selected periods,
actual and projected, 1955-85.................................................................................
5. Changes in gross product originating, selected periods, actual
and projected, 1955-85............................................................................................
6. Total employment (counting jobs rather than workers) by major
sector, 1955, 1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985...............................
7. U. S. population, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and
1985...........................................................................................................................
8. Total labor force by age and sex, selected years 1955-72 and
projected for 1980 and 1985...................................................................................
9. Labor force, employment, hours, productivity, and potential GNP,
selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985...................................
10. Derivation of civilian employment control totals, selected years
1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.............................................................
11. Total nonagricultural employment and voluntary part-time
nonagricultural employment, 1966-72...................................................................
12. Personal income, sources and disposition, selected years 1955-72
and projected for 1980 and 1985...........
13. Disposable personal income per capita, 1955, 1968, 1972, and
projected for 1980 and 1985...................................................................................
14. Gross saving and investment, selected years 1955-72 and projected
for 1980 and 1985...................................................................................................
15. Federal Government revenues and expenditures, selected years
1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.............................................................
VI
1
5
5
6
7
8
13
15
18
20
21
28
30
31
32
C o n te n ts— Continued
Tables — Continued
6
16. State and local government revenues and expenditures, selected
years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985..................................................
17. Price changes, GNP and major components, selected periods,
actual and projected, 1955-85................................................................................
18. GNP and major demand components, selected years 1955-72 and
projected for 1980 and 1985..................................................................................
19. Personal consumption expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and
projected for 1980 and 1985..................................................................................
20. Consumer purchases of automobiles and mobile homes, selected
years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985..................................................
21. Changes in consumer purchases of selected durable goods, selected
periods, actual and projected, 1951-85..................................................................
22. Food consumption per capita, selected years 1955-72 and projected
for 1980 and 1985...................................................................................................
23. Changes in consumer purchases of selected household services,
selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85...................................................
24. Consumer purchases of selected transportation services,
selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985...................................
25. Consumer purchases of selected "other services,” selected years
1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985............................................................
26. Changes in personal consumption expenditures by producing
sector: the 15 fastest growing industries between 1970 and 1980.....................
27. Consumer purchases of china, glassware, and tableware by
producing industry, 1963, 1970, and projected for 1985.....................................
28. Gross private domestic investment, selected years 1955-72 and
projected for 1980 and 1985..................................................................................
29. Private construction, selected years 1955-72 and projected for
1980 and 1985.........................................................................................................
30. Producers’ durable equipment by producing industry, selected
years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985...................................................
31. U. S. exports by major sector, 1963, 1970, and projected for 1980
and 1985...................................................................................................................
32. U. S. imports by major sector, 1963, 1970, and projected for
1980 and 1985..........................................................................................................
33. U. S. balance of payments by major component, selected years
1963-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.............................................................
34. Changes in State and local government purchases of goods and
services, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85...................................
35. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, selected
years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985..................................................
36. Average coefficient change, selected industries, selected
periods, actual and projected, 1963-85.................................................................
37. Industries with significant changes in output,
1963-70...............................
38. Industries with significant projected changes in output, 1970-80.......................
39. Industries with significant projected changes in output, 1980-85.......................
vi i
36
38
41
46
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
58
59
62
64
65
66
67
72
73
73
74
C
tents — Continued
Page
Tables — Continued
40. Gross product originating in total private economy by major
sector, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985....................... 81
41. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in domestic output,
1968-80..................................................................................................................... 84
42. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in domestic output,
1980-85..................................................................................................................... 84
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
64.
Industries projected to grow most slowly in domestic output,
1968-80....................................................................
85
Industries projected to grow most slowly in domestic output,
1980-85........................
85
Industries with significant projected changes in domestic output
growth rates from 1959-68 to1968-80.................................................................. 86
Industries with significant projected changes in domestic output
growth rates from 1968-80 to1980-85................................................................... 88
Productivity change by sector, selected periods, actual and projected,
1948-85...................................................................................
89
Range of industry productivity (output per man-hour) projections,
1968-80..................................................................................................................... 90
Changes in average annual hours by major sector, selected periods,
actual and projected, 1948-85................................................................................. 91
Total employment (counting jobs rather than workers) by major
sector, selected years 1955-72 andprojected for 1980 and 1985......................... 93
Industries projected to grow most rapidly in employment, 1968-80.................... 96
Industries projected to grow most rapidly in employment, 1980-85.................... 96
Industries projected to show largest increases in number of jobs,
1968-80 and 1980-85............................................................................................... 97
Combined effects of population growth and participation rates on
labor force projections............................................................................................. 100
Projections under alternative assumptions: isolated effects............................... 100
Projected GNP and growth rates under selected combinations
of alternative assumptions...........•
......................................................................... 104
Jobs per $1 billion of final demand components, 1980........................................ 108
Jobs per $1 billion of final demand components, 1985........................................ 109
Manufacturing jobs per $10 billion of Federal defense
purchases and State and local government purchases of health,
welfare, and sanitation, 1980.................................................................................I l l
Jobs per $10 billion of consumer durables and consumer services, by
major sector and selected industries, 1980...........................................................112
Major determinants of supply GNP: a comparison of previous and
revised 1980 projections......................................................................................... 114
GNP by major demand category: a comparison of previous and
revised 1980 projections......................................................................................... 116
Gross product originating by major sector: a comparison of
previous and revised 1980 projections................................................................. 116
Industries for which projections of domestic output growth rates
differed by more than 2 percentage points........................................................... 119
viii
Contents — Continued
Page
Tables — Continued
65.
Employment by major sector: a comparison of previous and revised
1980 projections....... .............................................................................................. 121
66. Employment in selected industries: a comparison of previous
and revised 1980 projection....... ........................................................................... 121
67. Differences in projected growth rates for 1980 domestic output
and employment, by industry................................................................................. 122
Charts:
1. Average annual rates of change in population and labor force, actual
and projected, selected periods................................................................................. 14
2. Labor force by age, 1960, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985..................... 16
3. Average annual rates of change in labor force, employment, productivity,
and gross national product, actual and projected, selected periods..................... 24
4. Federal Government expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected for
1980 and 1985..........
34
5. State and local government revenues, selected years and projected for
1980 and 1985............................................................................................................ 37
6. Gross product originating, total private economy, by major sector, 1955,
1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985....................................................... 83
7. Employment by major sector, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980
and 1985..................................................................................................................... 95
A-l. Diagram of economic growth projection system........................................... 125
Appendixes:
A.
B.
C.
Methods of developing the 1980 and 1985 projections......................................... 124
Industrial composition of final demand by category, input-output
matrices, and related data....................................................................................... 152
Industry output and employment data.................................................................... 368
IX
Energy A ssum ptions
The projections contained in this bulletin were completed
prior to the oil embargo and resulting petroleum shortage. A
major element in their development was the set of energy supply-demand projections of the U. S. Department of Interior,
which assumed that the increasing shortfall of domestic energy
supply relative to demand through 1985 would be met largely
by substantial increases in imports of crude oil and petroleum
products. In light of the embargo and the need to minimize
U. S. dependence on oil imports, various programs along the
lines of "Project Independence” are now under active con
sideration. Such programs to increase U. S. self-sufficiency in
energy requirements obviously would have a substantial im
pact on consumers, government, and business demand for a
whole variety of goods and services. Such changes would, in
turn, affect relative growth of industry output, employment,
and occupational requirements. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
has, therefore, started a major research effort to develop
comprehensive sets of alternative projections which would
explore the demand, output, and manpower implications of
"Project Independence,” as well as other strategies for reduc
ing energy demand, expanding domestic energy supply, and
minimizing reliance on energy imports. The results will be
made available when the study is completed, probably in
mid-1975.
x
Introduction
This bulletin provides detailed projec
tions for 1980 and 1985 of gross national
product (GNP) the income and demand com
position of GNP, the industrial composition
of demand, input-output coefficients, and
output, man-hours, productivity, and em
ployment by industry. The projections were
developed for the 1968-80 and 1980-85
periods. The year 1968 was chosen as a
base because it was characterized by full
employment of resources and productivity
advances at or near their longrun poten
tial. The projection period 1968-80 is gen
erally compared with 1955-68 — a period of
comparable length when the economy was
operating near capacity. At the same time,
to focus more on the current period, in
most cases the implied 1972-80 growth is
also shown.
These estimates are not forecasts but are
projections of what the U. S. economy might
be like in 1980 and 1985 under given
assumptions, some explicit, but others, even
more numerous, implicit. To enable the
reader to evaluate these projections, the
most important assumptions are spelled
out in the following three sections.
General assumptions
1. Fiscal and monetary policy and man
power training and educational programs
will be able to achieve a satisfactory balance
between relatively low unemployment and
relative price stability, permitting achieve
ment of the long-term potential economic
growth rate. Consequently, the projections
assume a 4-percent unemployment rate (of
the civilian labor force) and a 3-percent an
nual rate of increase in the implicit GNP
price deflator (table 1). It is assumed that
this unemployment rate and this rate of
price increase will be reached in 1975 and
that these rates will remain the same
through 1985.
2. The institutional framework of the
American economy will not change radi
cally.
3. Economic, social, technological, and
scientific trends will continue, including val
ues placed on work, education, income, and
leisure.
4. Efforts to solve major domestic pro
blems such as air and water pollution, solid
waste disposal, congestion in large urban
Table 1. Values of variables used in assumptions, 1955,1968, 19 72, and projected for 1980 and 1985
Projected
Variable
1955
1968
1972
1980
4.4
Unem ploym ent rate (p e rc e n .t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Armed Forces (m illio n s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.0
Im p licit GNP deflator ( 1 9 6 3 = 1 0.0.). . . . . . .
.
84.9
Population (m illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165.9
Average weekly hours (pa id p riv ate). . . . . . .
..
41.0
Productivity (p riv ate GNP per
m an-hour, 1 9 63 dollars).. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
3.30
Federal purchases (billio n s of dollars,
44.1
current p ric e s .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal transfer payments (b illio n s of
16.1
dollars, current p ric e s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal grants-in-aid (b illio n s of
dollars, current p ric e s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
3.6
3.5
113.8
20 0.7
38.5
5.6
2.4
136.1
2 0 8.8
37.8
4.0
2.0
175.6
224.1
36.9
4.0
2.0
20 3 .8
23 5.7
36 .3
(2 )
1.2
2.3
1.5
-.5
(2 )
-9 .1
4.6
4.86
5.34
6.85
7.85
98.8
104.4
16 6.6
56.1
98 .3
18.7
37.7
(2 )
-.5
(2 )
-4 .7
3.4
.9
- .4
3.0
1.0
- 3
3.0
2.4
2.9
2.8
21 8 .5
6.4
1.4
4.5
5.6
178.4
2 2 7 .6
10.1
15.1
10 1
5.0
90 .2
1 Compound interest rates between term in al years.
1985
Average annual rates of change '
Projected
1955-68
1980-85
1968-72
1968-80
137.5
14.8
19.2
14.0
8.8
2 Not calculated.
1
1.0
0.0
areas, and inadequate safety conditions
O th er assum ptions
in industry may preempt a larger share of
the Nation’s productive resources but not
Government. All levels of government will
enough to have a more than marginal ef
expand efforts to meet a wide variety of
fect on the long-term economic growth rate.
domestic requirements but State and local
Such efforts, may, however, affect indus
government activity will continue to grow
trial growth in some geographic areas.
relative to Federal Government activity.
5.
The U. S. energy supply-demand bal It has been further assumed that Federal,
ance will be roughly in line with that pro
State, and local budgets will be close to
being in balance by 1980 and 1985. This
jected by the U.S. Department of the
assumes:
Interior in U.S. Energy Through the Year
2000, published in December 1972. This
1. No change in Federal tax legislation. Future ef
means major reliance on oil imports, partic
fects of the Tax Reform Act of 1969 have been taken
into account.
ularly refined petroleum, to close the energy
2. The tax rate for social security contributions is
supply-demand gap. Any price changes re
left at currently legislated levels (Social Security
sulting from energy shortages or disruptions
Amendments of 1972) but the wage base is allowed to
grow with the deflator for personal consumption expend
are not considered. See the note on energy
itures, thus maintaining a constant real wage base.
assumptions on page x.
3. Federal transfer payments will continue at the
levels implied in the provisions of current Federal legis
lation through 1975. After 1975, transfer payments
are assumed to increase in accord with: (a ) the rate of
increase of the population over age 62; (b ) the rate of
price increase; and (c) an expansion of 3 percent a
year to allow for increases in coverage and real bene
fits.
4. Increased Federal revenue resulting from growth
in the economy will be used to a large extent to con
tinue to expand Federal grants to State and local
governments, although grants are projected to increase
at a diminishing rate. The substantial increase in
Federal grants will make it possible for State and local
governments to dampen the increase in their tax rates.
5. Defense expenditures, in constant dollars, are
assumed to continue to decline as a proportion of the
Federal budget and of total GNP. The size of the
Armed Forces will be reduced to about 2 million and
will remain at that level.
6. Federal nondefense purchases of goods and ser
vices, in constant dollars, are assumed to increase at
rates below that of real GNP, but will account for an
increasing share of total Federal purchases of goods
and services.
Assumptions directly affecting
rate of economic growth
1. Population. BureauJof the Census Se
ries E projections are assumed. Series E
assumes that fertility rates remain at the
replacement level.
2. Labor force is based on the population
and assumed participation rates. Future
participation rates for each age-sex group
(with differentiation made for women with
and without children under 5) are derived
by extrapolating the trend for the period
1955-72 and tapering this trend so that in
50 years all changes are reduced to approx
imately zero.
Residential construction. Estimates assume
that the Nation will meet its housing goals
by 1978. Thereafter, residential construc
tion is projected to remain a constant pro
portion of real GNP.
In international trade, it is assumed that
by 1980 and 1985 the United States will
have achieved a slight surplus in its net
export balance, in spite of increased im
ports of oil.
3. Average annual hours (paid) are as
sumed to decline by 0.5 percent a year in
the agricultural sector; in the private nonagricultural sector they are assumed to
decline by 0.3 percent a year.
4. Productivity in the private nonfarm eco
nomy is assumed to grow at its long-term
rate — 2.7 percent a year. The shortfall in
productivity for the recent period, 1968-72,
compared to the long-run trend, will be
made up by 1980. The annual trend rate of
5.5 percent for the farm sector is assumed
to continue throughout the proj ection period.
Methods
A brief summary of methods is included
here. A more complete description is con
2
tained in appendix A for those interested
in reviewing each step of the projection
procedure in detail.
The projections were developed using the
following sequence:
The projection system involves anumber
of checkpoints to see that projections made
at different stages in the sequence are
mutually consistent. Important among these
checks is the balancing of the employment
projections with the total employment used
in the initial stage. Occupational projections
are developed at a later stage; these de
each of these variables and examine the
ramifications. However, the combinations
and permutations would make the task
insurmountable. For that reason, the pro
jections discussed in this bulletin concen
trate on a basic set of estimates and
assumptions. However, the implications for
the overall growth rates and the implica
tions for industry output and employment
of alternative demand assumptions are dis
cussed in chapters 6 and 7, respectively.
Even when alternative assumptions can
be made and carried through, uncertainties
exist. While the projections have been care
fully worked out and reviewed and the mod
els used, tested, and evaluated, many ques
tions are left unanswered. Any model or
technique is only a shortcut attempt to
capture intricate relationships in the econo
my. These shortcuts may obscure important
structural changes. Also, it is usual, in
making projections, to tend, when all else
fails, to move toward the center of reason
able alternatives, while the economy is
never quite that cooperative. Further, in
developing projections for periods as dis
tant as 1980 and 1985, it is inevitable that
events will take place which could material
ly affect these projections. As one example,
it is conceivable that defense expenditures
could be drastically increased or reduced
as a result of international developments
or decisions regarding national priorities.
This would affect not only Federal Govern
ment expenditures, but also tfie level and
structure of investments and consumer ex
tailed projections are published in separate
penditures, input-output relationships, and
1. Labor force projections were developed through
separate projections of the population and labor force
participation rates for various groups in the population
16 years and over, by age and sex.
2. Potential output (gross national product) was
projected as the product of three major variables: (a )
employment, based on the projected labor force and
an assumption of a 4-percent unemployment rate; (b)
annual hours per job; and (c) output per man-hour.
3. Distribution of potential GNP into major cate
gories of demand was projected through the use of a
macroeconometric model which starts with potential
GNP and develops estimates of government revenue,
personal income, and business income. The income
estimates were then used to develop projections of
government purchases of goods and services, personal
consumption, and investment expenditures.
4. Conversion of projected major components of
demand into detailed industry employment estimates
was done in three substages: (a) major final demand
components were distributed into detailed "bills of
goods” on an item-by-item basis; (b) the potential de
mand for all final goods and services was converted
into industry output requirements through the use of
interindustry (input-output) relationships projected to
1980 and 1985; and (c) projected industry output was
derived and subsequently converted into employment
requirements based on projections of annual hours per
job and output per man-hour.
bulletins’
the relative rates of output and employ
ment growth for selected industries. Conse
quently, while BLS has taken considerable
time and care in developing these projec
tions, before they are used by others they
should be evaluated carefully, particularly
the assumptions underlying them.
As a consequence, the projections should
be considered as estimates amid uncertain
ty. Nevertheless, they are believed to be
useful in providing indicators of relative
future growth of demand, output, and em
ployment.
Qualifications
Preparing a set of projections as com
prehensive as those described in this bulle
tin requires making many assumptions,
some of which have a great deal of uncer
tainty attached to them. It would be possi
ble to make alternative assumptions for
1
See forthcoming BLS Bulletin 1824, Occupational Man
power and Training Needs, Revised 1974.
3
Highlights and Implications
labor force. Thus, the 3.8 percent rate of
growth in GNP during 1955-68 occurred in
conjunction with labor force growth of 1.5
percent a year. By contrast, the labor force
is projected to grow on the average by 1.8
percent a year during 1968-80. The differ
ence is translated into an increase in the
potential growth. On the other hand, during
1980-85, labor force growth is expected to
slow to 1.1 percent a year, and a corre
sponding diminution in economic growth is
expected.
Below is a brief summary of the more
detailed contents covered in the succeeding
chapters, followed by a discussion of the
major implications of the projections.
Projected U. S. economic growth
Real gross national product (GNP) is
projected to grow faster during 1968-80
(4.1 percent a year in 1963 dollars)2 than
it did during 1955-68 (3.8 percent), pri
marily as a result of the projected accel
erated growth in the labor force in the
1970’s (table 2). On the other hand, the
projected 1980-85 rate of growth is appre
ciably slower— 3.3 percent a year.
Income GNP
The implied rate of growth during 197280, at 4.7 percent, is appreciably higher
than the 1968-80 rate because the unem
ployment rate in 1972 was higher than 4.0
percent and productivity growth fell short
in 1969-72. These projections indicate that,
if estimate! of potential GNP were made
for each year rather than for the two points
in time (1980 and 1985), the slowing of the
rate of increase in potential GNP would be
gin about 1978 and continue at least through
1985.
Summarizing, the factors used in deter
mining the GNP for 1980 and 1985 are
growth in labor force, unemployment, em
ployment change, change in average hours,
and productivity, each of which is discussed
in chapter 1. Variations in historical and
projected economic growth rates, aside from
periods of less than full utilization of re
sources, come about largely because of
variations in the rate of increase in the
2
The 1968-80 growth in real GNP (4 .0 9 percent a
year) would be somewhat different if stated in 1972
dollars or 1958 dollars — 3.97 percent and 4 .1 0 percent,
respectively. In the December 1973 Monthly Labor Re
view article which summarized these projections, the esti
mates were shown in 1972 dollars.
4
Total personal income is projected to in
crease at 8.0 percent a year during 196880 (stated in current prices), or appreci
ably faster than over the 1955-68 period.
The increase reflects both the faster real
growth in GNP and the faster rate of price
increase projected. The projected growth in
personal income slows down from 1980 to
1985 because of both the expected slower
growth of real GNP and the somewhat lower
rate of price increase. These are discussed
in more detail in chapter 2. Personal con
sumption expenditures—by far themostimportant use of personal income — follow very
closely the growth in personal income, both
historically and in the projected period. In
spite of the closeness of the projected growth
rates for the various income uses, an exami
nation of relative shares of income (table
3) shows a clearly rising share of income
going to taxes and interest, a stable share
going to savings, and a declining share go
ing to consumption.
An examination of government revenues
and expenditures (on a national income
accounts basis) over the 1968-80 period
shows the projected rate of increase in
Federal expenditures to be a little lower
than for revenues — 7.5 and 7.6 percent a
Table 2.
Major determinants of supply G N P , 1955,1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985
Projected
Category
1955
1968
Average annual rates of change 1
1972
1980
Total labor force, including m ilitary
(th o u s a n d s .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Employed (persons c o u n t)
............
Em ploym ent (jo b s count) (th o u s a n d s )..
Government 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Private 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Average annual man-hours (private
hours p a id ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Total private m an-hours ( m illio n .....
s)
Private GNP per m an-hour
(1 9 6 3 do llars). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
....
Total GNP (b illio n s of 1963 d o lla rs )
Government o u tp u t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Private G N P. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1955-68
Projected
1968-80
19 80 -85
68 ,0 7 2
65 ,2 2 0
6 9 ,2 5 2
9,475
59 ,77 7
8 2 ,27 2
7 9 ,4 5 5
8 4 ,8 7 3
14 ,45 3
7 0 ,42 0
88,991
84 ,15 1
8 8 ,50 6
14,786
73,72 0
10 1,8 09
9 7 ,81 7
1 0 4,0 76
17 ,47 0
8 6 ,6 0 6
1 0 7 ,7 1 6
10 3,4 87
11 0,1 09
19,60 0
9 0 ,5 0 9
1.47
1.53
1.54
3.30
1.27
1.79
2.95
1.71
1.59
1.74
1.13
1.16
1.13
2.33
.89
2,1 3 0
12 7 ,3 4 4
2 ,000
1 4 0,8 70
1,965
1 4 4,8 24
1,920
166,291
1,888
170,8 92
-.4 8
.78
-.3 4
1.39
-.3 4
55
3.30
46 8.7
48.8
41 9 .9
4.8 6
75 9.2
74 .0
68 5.2
5.34
84 8 .9
76.1
77 2 .8
6.85
1,228 .2
89 .6
1,138 .6
7.85
1,441 .5
100.1
1,341 .5
3.02
3.78
3.25
3.84
2.90
4.09
1.61
4.32
2.7 6
3.25
2.2 4
3.33
1 Compound interest rates between term in al years.
2 Governm ent em ploym ent figures are fu ll-tim e and p a rt-tim e em ploym ent.
year respectively (in current prices) — only
moderately less than the 1955-68 rate. The
implied 1972-80 rate is not appreciably
different, although the increase in revenue
is somewhat faster than in expenditures.
Between 1980 and 1985, both Federal ex
penditures and revenues are projected to
slow to a growth rate of about 6 percent a
year, in line with the slowing in the entire
economy. By contrast, over the 1955-68
period, Federal expenditures increased
somewhat faster than revenues, moving
the Federal budget from a surplus to a defi
cit position.
The projections for State and local govern
ment expenditures show a continuation of
very significant rates of increase as the
demand for government services continues.
The 1968-80 projections show rates of in
crease of more than 10 percent a year (in
current prices) for both revenues and ex
penditures. In 1980-85 the rate of increase
of State and local revenues and expendi
tures slows to 8 percent a year as the eco
nomy slows.
3 Private em ploym ent and man-hours were compiled by the
Productivity and Technology, Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
projected at a rate of 4.3 percent a year
(1963 dollars). The projected 1980 to 1985
rate of increase for consumer expenditures
is 3.3 percent a year, a considerable slow
ing in growth (table 4). Chapter 3 contains
a detailed discussion of the projected com
position of consumer expenditures and other
categories of demand GNP.
Table 3. Personal income, sources and disposition, 1955, 1968,
1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985
(Percent distribution)
Projected
Com ponent
1955
1968
1972
1980
1985
Personal income: sources
................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Com pensation of em ployees ....... 70.3 71.2 71.2 68 .9 69.7
>
...
5.2
Governm ent transfers to persons
8.1 10.5 10.3
9.6
O ther s o u rc e s 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.2 24.0 22.0 24 .8 24.6
Less: personal co ntributions for
social insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
1.7
3.3
3.7
3.9
3.8
Personal income: d is p o s itio.n . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
.
Personal tax and nontax paym ents... 11.4 14.2 15.1 15.5 16.7
Interest paid by co n su m ers
...........
2.1
2.1
1.5
2.5
2.6
( 3 )
( 3)
.1
Personal transfers to fo reig n ers
.....
.2
.1
Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1
5.8
5.3
5.8
5.7
Personal consum ption expenditures. 81.8 77.8 77.4 76.2 75.0
1 Includes wages and salaries plus other labor income.
2 Includes proprietors’ income, rental income of persons,
come, dividends, and business transfers to persons.
3 Less than .05 percent.
Demand GNP
interest
in
SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The largest component of demand GNP
is personal consumption expenditures; their
projected expansion is in keeping with the
longrun trend, that is, at rates slightly
faster than for GNP. In 1968-80, the growth
in personal consumption expenditures is
1985
While significantly smaller than con
sumption, investment is an important part
of GNP because it represents the Nation’s
commitment today to future growth in the
5
Table 4. Changes in GNP and major demand components, selected
periods, actual and projected, 1955-85
(Based on data in 1 9 63 dollars)
Average annual rates of c h a n g e !
Com ponent
Projected
1955-68
Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal consum ption expenditures ..
Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t...
Fixed in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n re s id e n tia.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R esidential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
N et export of goods and services..
E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
G overnm ent purchases of goods
and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal gov ernm e nt
................
N ational defen se. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
O th er. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tate and local governm ent
......
1968-80 1980-85
3.8
4.0
2.6
2.7
4.2
-.6
- 7.1
6.2
7.4
4.1
4.3
4.8
4.8
5.0
4.2
14.0
7.0
6.7
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.5
2.6
4.9
5.1
4.4
3.4
2.6
7.6
5.6
2.7
-.4
- 1.7
3.3
5.1
3.2
2.1
1.7
2.9
3.8
’ Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCE: H istorical data from U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics:
projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
economy. The rate of growth during 196880 for the residential structures component
of investment is 4.2 percent a year (table
4). Of course, between 1968 and 1972, a
very significant expansion had already
taken place, so that the implied 1972-80
rate of growth for residential structures is
only 1.1 percent a year. Nonresidential in
vestment is projected to expand at a some
what faster rate than during 1955-68. This
is in keeping with the overall expansion in
the rate of growth in GNP during this
period. From 1980 to 1985 the projected
rate of growth in nonresidential investment
is about the same as for total GNP so that
the share of nonresidential investment re
mains at about the level projected for 1980.
Both imports and exports are projected
to increase at rates faster than the GNP.
Over the 1968-85 period, U. S. exports are
projected to expand rapidly, with agricul
tural exports and the nonmerchandise com
ponents, particularly returns on investment,
leading the expansion. These increases off
set the very large increase projected in oil
imports, accompanied by a general slowing
in growth in other import categories.
The projection for total Federal purchases
of goods and services during 1968-80 shows
very little growth.3 However, the projection
results from divergent trends among the
two components of Federal purchases —
defense and nondefense. For example, the
national defense component is projected to
decline 1.7 percent a year (table 4). Of
course, all of the decline and more had
taken place by 1972 so that defense pur
chases during 1972-80 are projected to
increase 1.8 percent a year or about $7
billion (in real terms). Nondefense pur
chases during 1968-80 are expected to ex
pand at a rate of 3.3 percent a year, or a
considerable slowing of the earlier pace
(7.6 percent during 1955-68) when the space
program was undertaken and reached its
peak — a factor not expected to add much
growth to nondefense Federal purchases in
the future.
State and local government purchases
are projected to slow to 5.1 percent a year
during 1968-80 and to slow further to 3.8
percent a year in 1980-85. State and local
government purchases have been, over the
past 15 years, one of the fastest growing
components of demand. The anticipated
slowing of the rate of increase in overall
State and local purchases, however, masks
some major changes of emphasis in the
pattern of expenditures. Perhaps the great
est of these is the diminished role of educa
tional services relative to other purchases.
Output and employment
Among the shifts projected in output is
a steady decline in the importance of agri
culture and mining — a continuation of the
3
It is important to remember that in the demand
system of GNP accounts, government demand covers
only its purchases of goods and services. The earlier sec
tion on government revenues and expenditures covered
all categories of Federal expenditures. In the previous
discussion of- Federal purchases the rate of increase was
in current prices. In this section the discussion is in real
1963 dollars. Federal and State and local expenditures
in current prices are discussed in more detail in chapter
2, while Federal, State, and local purchases of goods
and services in constant 1963 dollars are described in
chapter 3.
6
trend of the past.4 (The detailed discus
sion of output and employment is in chapter
5.) The decline in the relative importance
of construction is not projected to continue
at the same pace as in the past, principally
because of the expansion in residential
housing and nonresidential structures pro
jected for the 1970’s. Manufacturing is not
expected to change its relative share in
the projected period. However, because of
the increase in the overall growth rate
in 1968-80, the growth of manufacturing is
projected to be somewhat faster than in the
past, in spite of a decline in the relative
importance of military production (table 5).
The wholesale and retail trade share of
total gross product originating, on the other
hand, is expected to show a moderate de
cline— at least from the 1972 level, particu
larly during 1980-85, as the economy slows
down and the amount of goods moved
through trade channels moderates even
more. With business and professional ser
vices and medical services all showing
strong growth, the "other services” sector
is projected to expand somewhat in the fu
ture. The finance, insurance, and real estate
sector has increased appreciably in the past
and is expected to increase sharply during
1972-85.
Between 1972 and 1980, employment
(on a jobs concept) is expected to increase
by 16 million while from 1980 to 1985 the
projections show an expected increase of
6 million, reaching over 107 million jobs in
1985 or 22 million more jobs than in 1972
(table 6). However, dramatic differences in
growth are evident between the 1972-80
period, when jobs will increase by 2 million
a year, and the 1980-85 period, when they
will increase by 1.2 million a year. The
latter figure is equal to the employment
growth during 1955-72.
Growth in government employment is
projected to moderate at the Federal, State,
and local levels. Yet the projection indicates
an increase of over 5 million jobs in govern
ment (primarily State and local) by 1985.
Table 5.
(Based on data in 1963 dollars )
Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1
Sector
Projected
1955-68
Total p riv a te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N ona g ricu ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
D u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tran sportation, co m m unication,
and public utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance and real estate
Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Government e n te rp ris e .s...........
1 9 68 -80 1980-85
3.8
.8
4.0
2.0
1.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.3
.7
4.4
1.1
2.4
4.2
4.4
3.9
3.3
1.0
3.4
.3
1.7
3.1
3.2
3.0
4.9
3.3
7.2
5.9
4.0
5.3
3.3
4.6
4.3
4.4
5.9
4.6
7.9
5.6
4.4
4.7
4.2
4.5
5.1
4.4
4.2
3.1
5.1
4.8
2.5
2.7
2.4
4.0
3.8
3.8
1 Compound interest rates between term in al years.
SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, converted to 1 9 63 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics;
projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The moderation in the growth of govern
ment employment while total employment
is increasing translates into an appreciable
stepup in the rate of growth in private sec
tor employment—from 1.2 percent a year
during 1955-68 to about 1.7 percent a year
in 1968-80, returning in 1980-85 to a rate
lower than in 1955-68.
The projections of employment in the
private sector, particularly at the major
sector level of detail, reflect a continuation
of the shifts in employment which have
taken place for most of the postwar period.
However, some sectors which until recently
had declining employment are expected to
show increases in the future.
Even though the growth in manufactur
ing employment is less than 1.0 percent a
year to 1985, because of the size of the sec
tor nearly 3 million more jobs are projected
from the previous peak level reached in
1969 and over 4 million more from the
1972 level. Retail trade is projected to add
more than 3 million jobs between 1972
and 1985. However, the big expansion in
‘ Gross product originating is used as a measure of
output and is an alternative way of viewing GNP. It
represents the value added (in real terms, at least as
used here) of goods and services produced or originating
in each of the industries or sectors of the economy.
Changes in gross product originating, selected periods,
actual and projected, 1955-85
7
Table 6.
Total employment (counting jobs rather than workers), by major sector, 1955,1968, 1972, and projected for 1980 and 1985
Thousands of jobs
Sector
1955
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Governm ent 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N onagriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C ons truc tion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tran sportation, com m unication,
and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C o m m u n ic a tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and real estate
Other services 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Averageannual ratesof change 1
Projected
1968
1972
6 5 ,7 4 5
6,914
58,831
6,4 3 4
52 ,39 7
832
3,582
17 ,30 9
9,782
7,527
8 0 ,9 2 6
11 ,84 5
69 ,08 1
3,816
6 5 ,2 6 5
640
4,0 3 8
2 0 ,1 3 8
11,828
8 ,3 1 0
4,353
2,918
832
603
13,201
3,063
10,13 8
2,6 5 2
10,46 8
4,519
2,8 6 8
986
665
16,655
3,894
12,761
3 ,720
15 ,55 5
Projected
1980
1985
8 5 ,59 7
13,29 0
72,30 7
3,450
6 8 ,85 7
645
4,3 5 2
19,281
11,091
8,1 9 0
1 0 1,5 76
16,610
8 4 ,9 6 6
2,3 0 0
8 2 ,6 6 6
655
4,908
2 2 ,9 2 3
13,629
9,2 9 4
107,609
18,80 0
88 ,80 9
1,900
8 6 ,90 9
632
5 ,184
2 3 ,4 9 9
14,154
9 ,3 4 5
4,7 2 6
2,842
1,150
734
18,432
4,235
14,19 7
4,3 0 3
17,118
5,321
3,250
1,300
771
2 1 ,6 9 5
4 ,946
16,749
5,349
2 1 ,8 1 5
5,368
3,266
1,312
790 «
22,381
5,123
17,25 8
5,932
2 3 ,91 3
1955-68
1968-80
1980-85
1.6
4.2
1.2
- 3.9
1.7
- 2.0
.9
1.2
1.5
.8
1.9
2.9
1.7
- 4.1
2.0
.2
1.6
1.1
1.2
.9
1.2
2.5
.9
- 3.7
1.0
.7
1.1
.5
.8
.1
.3
.1
1.3
.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
2.6
3.1
1.4
1.0
2.3
1.2
2.2
2.0
2.3
3.1
2.9
-
.2
.1
.2
.5
6
.7
.6
2.1
1.9
NOTE. Em ploym ent on a job concept includes wage and salary workers,
' Compound interest rates between term inal years.
2 Governm ent em ploym ent used here is the BLS concept, to be c o n self-em ployed, and unpaid fam ily workers. A job count is d iffe ren t from a
sistent with other em ploym ent data. It differs from the governm ent em ploy person count of em ploym ent because, in a job count, persons holding more
m ent shown in table 2 by the inclusion of government enterprise em ploy than one job are counted m ore than once.
m ent as well as by other differences in coverage.
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
3 Includes paid household em ployment.
of the GNP growth rate during the period
1980-85. Over most of the 1960’s and
1970’s, the potential growth in the economy
has been or is expected to be 4 percent or
more a year. However, beginning in the
late 1970’s and continuing through 1985
and beyond, the potential growth rate in
the economy will be no more than 3-1/3
percent a year.5 This slowdown will affect
the expected rate of growth in business
sales, capital expansion, and other items
closely related to rates of growth in the
economy. Thus, businesses will be called up
on to expand the facilities necessary to
meet the increasing rate of economic growth
anticipated during the mid-1970’ s, yet not
to overexpand facilities for the late 1970’s
and early 1980’s when growth rates are
slowing down.
employment is projected to continue to be
in other services, resulting from both a
slight shift in output toward this sector and
the relatively slower growth in its produc
tivity.
Implications
This section discusses some of the impli
cations of the projections summarized in
the preceding sections for economic growth,
incomes, the distribution of demand, and
employment.
Potential GNP growth. The projections for
1968-80 assume that all of the shortfall in
productivity from 1968 to 1972, and the
less-than-full utilization of the labor force
in 1972, will be made up by 1980. There
fore, one concern raised by these projec
tions is the ability of the economy, first, to
reach and then maintain the full-employ
ment growth rate, particularly over the
1972-80 period.
The projections imply a dramatic slowing
5 The labor force projections for 1980-85, which show
growth of 1.1 percent a year, indicate that, if all else
remains the same, the potential growth rate of the eco
nomy will drop to nearly 3.0 percent a year during 198590 as the labor force growth slows further to 0.9 percent
a year.
8
While the projected slowdown in theGNP
growth rate may produce some problems,
it could also bring some benefits. Among
the benefits would be lessened pollution.
Even without advances in treatment, pollu
tion would not increase as rapidly as when
the economy is growing faster. Also, use of
scarce resources such as fuels, minerals, or
timber will slow as the economy slows and
thus lessen the rate of depletion of these
critical resources. This slowdown in resource
use can be particularly significant for an
economy pressed for energy resources.
The gradual slowing in the growth of
State and local government purchases may
ease the strains on local taxpaying capacity
caused by the demands placed on this
level of government. It is still true, however,
that the projections call for expansion at
rates higher than GNP growth, which would
indicate continued pressure for increases in
revenues. This is particularly so if one
examines the problems facing society which
are an important responsibility of State and
local governments — local mass transit,
municipal waste water and sanitary treat
ment systems, and low-income housing, to
list a number of the more important.
The growth in both exports and imports
at rates exceeding the rate of growth in
GNP will continue to make the United
States more dependent on changes in foreign
countries. While the U. S. foreign trade sec
tor is still small compared to many ether
countries, recent experience has made the
United States mindful of the ramifications
of changes in trading position among the
industrial countries. Also, if one adds the
possibility or even the necessity of provid
ing increasingly for energy needs from
abroad, the United States will be even
more concerned with trading relationships
around the world. These projections tend to
confirm the belief that, if the United States
meets a large part of its expanding energy
needs from imports, there will be constant
pressure on the overall balance of pay
ments. At the same time, while these pro
jections assume a favorable balance of pay
ments, it is assumed to arise from large
returns on income from U. S. investments
abroad; a continuing deficit in the balance
of trade is projected. This deficit in trade
implies a continuing adjustment problem
as industries or localities are affected by
the shifting in production of certain products
from United States to foreign locations.
These projections show an increased
share of real demand devoted to nonresidential investment. Although not an expli
cit part of the projections, it is reasonably
safe to say that some portion of the in
crease will be needed for pollution abate
ment purposes. Further, it is conceivable
that a large amount of investment for pro
ducing energy will be required. These
Income growth. A particularly important
facet of these projections is the growth in
real per capita income. The proj ected growth
from 1968 to 1980 is at an appreciably
faster rate than during 1955-72. This gener
al indicator of the level of living gives an
unusually favorable outlook for the rest of
the 1970’ s; the early 1980’ s will see a re
turn to a rate of increase more like the late
1950’s and 1960’s. This speedup in the
remainder of the 1970’ s occurs because in
this period the labor force or working popu
lation increases appreciably faster than the
population not in the work force. Thus, on
a per capita basis, growth in income accel
erates. It is generally believed that when
real income is increasing rapidly, people
may be more willing to assume burdens of
financing programs in the public interest—
pollution control, mass transit, or low-income
housing—than if income growth is small.
Distribution of demand. While theprojected
changes in demand follow to a considerable
extent those of the past, certain implica
tions arise from the changing structure of
demand. First, the proj ections do not assume
any large resurgence of defense or spacerelated spending, but instead show only a
gradual growth, particularly for defense.
This growth will fall appreciably below the
GNP growth rate. For those industries or
communities which are or have been strong
ly dependent on defense purchases, no great
expansion can be foreseen, even though
selected areas may, by virtue of their work
on a current or new defense system, undergo
some expansion.
9
government employment presents another
type of challenge. For instance, labormanagement collective bargaining proce
dures in this sector of the economy are in
an early stage of development. The prob
lems of maintaining essential public servicies during strikes or "sick-outs” present
difficult challenges to local governments
and, as this sector grows in size, the poten
tial for problems of this nature will expand
until bargaining procedures have been
established for the public sector.6 An addi
tional element in the growth in public sector
employment is its impact on economic
growth in the economy as a whole. A larger
proportion of employment in the public sec
tor, with the assumption of no change in
government productivity, implies a slowing
of the rate of economic growth, at least as
conventionally measured.
There is a twofold impact as an increas
ing proportion of the work force moves into
the services sector. First, since employment
in services is generally more stable than
employment in other sectors (particularly
more so than in durable goods manufactur
ing), the economy will be less prone to
abrupt swings in employment with changes
in economic activity.7 At the same time, an
economy with a higher proportion of its work
force in services may have a higher built-in
rate of inflation because many service indus
increased investment needs raise impor
tant questions concerning financing require
ments. It will be crucial that public policy
be directed toward fostering the personal,
business, or public savings necessary to
finance this projected expansion in invest
ment.
The projections of demand in the public
sector (Federal, State, and local) show a
slightly diminishing share, implying growth
at less than the rate of expansion in real
GNP. At the same time it is assumed that
Federal income tax rates will not change
from their present levels and that social
security tax rates will incorporate only
those changes already existing inlaw. State
and local tax rates are not explicit in the
projections but tax collections by these
governments are projected to grow at about
the same pace as at present, even with
increased rates of income growth (particu
larly during 1968-80) so that a dampening
of the rate of increase in these tax rates
seems implied. Still, the projections show
slight deficits for Federal, State, and local
governments in 1980 and 1985. Therefore,
any major expansion of public programs
(national health insurance, or a very largescale publicly financed crash effort to pro
duce more energy) would have to be
financed from expanded Federal grants-inaid, higher taxes, or significant cuts in the
rate of expansion of existing programs such
as defense or education.
tries have, by their nature, very low rates
of productivity growth. Since wages advance
in this sector at least as fast as in other
industries, if not faster, the lower produc
tivity potential of services will put increas
ing pressure on labor costs and prices.8 This
was a major consideration in assuming a
higher rate of price increase for future years
than has prevailed in the economy over the
past 1 5 -2 0 years. The relative growth of
Employment. The employment implications
of these projections follow or reinforce many
earlier projections developed by the BLS
and other research groups developing em
ployment projections.
Employment Shifts. The decline projected
for agricultural employment implies a con
tinuing movement of people from rural to
urban areas. In some instances, this will
put further pressure on overutilized public
facilities in urban areas and at the same
time make maintenance of essential public
services such as education and health care
in sparsely settled rural areas increasingly
difficult because of the lack of a viable tax
base.
The continuing growth of State and local
6For a discussion of some facets of this problem, see
"Exploring Alternatives to the Strike," Monthly Labor
Review, September 1973, pp. 43-51.
7For further discussion of this, see Geoffrey H.
Moore, "S o m e Secular Changes in Business Cycles and
their Implications for Research Policy,” paper presented
at meeting of American Economic Association, December
28, 1973.
8This could be offset to some extent by the lower
level of wages in services; the shift in employment to
these sectors will, all else being equal, lower average
wages in the economy.
10
fewer workers entering the labor force. Per
haps one could even envision a more orderly
adjustment than in past periods as the
economy moves toward absorbing only 1.2
million new job entrants in the 1980’s com
pared with 2 million in the 1970’s. However,
the slowdown will cause some structural
changes in employment which could present
some adjustment problems. Primary among
these is the very slow growth projected in
retail trade. This sector has been a job
source for many, particularly women who
are seeking only part-time employment. As
this sector slows somewhat more than the
economy as a whole, job entrants may have
to seek full-time work in other sectors, or
not enter the labor force if they are only
interested in part-time work. Also, one can
anticipate that the conversion from a 4.1
percent a year rate of real economic growth
in the 1968-80 period to a 3.3 percent rate
in 1980-85 will not be entirely smooth. If
business continues to expand at earlier
rates after the labor force slowdown, labor
shortages could follow — particularly among
skilled categories.
This brief discussion of the employment
implications of the projections is enough to
show that problems will exist, even though
higher standards of living are projected in
the future as per capita income grows and
the number of job openings expands. These
problems will require an active participa
tion of manpower officials in Federal, State,
and local governments and in the private
sector.
the service industries will have other im
portant implications, particularly for man
power policy, encompassing as they do not
only the high-skill areas such as medical
and dental services, consulting and research
firms, and computer leasing, but also the
lesser skilled employees in hospital main
tenance, food service, and personal services.
Although the demand for household help
is expected to continue to increase appre
ciably as women further expand their parti
cipation in the labor force, the number of
people willing to do this work is declining,
particularly as better paying or more desira
ble work opportunities are opened in other
sectors.9 This probably means both an
appreciable rise in wages for domestic help
and a further sharing of household duties
between working wives and husbands.
Employment slowdown. The slowdown in
employment growth during 1980-85 should
not make it more difficult for new entrants
in the labor force to find jobs, since the
slowdown in economic growth results from
9The projection system used in developing these
estimates has a consumption model, one element of
which is an equation for domestic services. It is interest
ing to note that this model projects an expansion in de
mand for domestic services of over 125 percent from
1968 to 1985 while the employment projection shows a
decline of over 35 percent in household employment over
the same period— pointing up the expected divergence of
supply and demand in this employment group. Of course,
in the final set of projections the outlays by consumers
were set equal to the expected supply of workers for
household employment; the supply element was thought
to be the controlling factor in this situation.
11
Chapter 1. Supply Projections of Gross National Product
importance in estimating labor force and
ultimately supply GNP; it is the composi
tion of the population already living. This
composition depends on past fertility rates
and the resulting patterns of population
growth.
By far the most important phenomenon
which will influence population composition
during the 1972 to 1985 period is the rapid
growth in fertility which began right after
World War II and ended in the late 1950’s.
This postwar "baby boom” will be translated
into a bulge in the 25- to 34-year-old age
group during the 1972 to 1980 period. The
population bulge will decline after 1980.
Evidence of this can be seen in table 7.
The postwar swell or boom in population
has a decisive impact on labor force growth
through the early period (1968-80) of these
projections. However, the decline in the
birth rate beginning in the late 1950’s and
continuing to the present begins to have a
decisive impact on labor force growth in the
late 1970’ s (chart 1). Although past popu
lation growth determines the primary effect
of population on potential GNP, projected
population growth has a role also, through
the effects of fertility rates which influence
the participation of women in the labor
force.1 This effect will be discussed in the
0
section on the labor force.
As mentioned above, fertility rates are
the key variable in projecting population
growth, since the number of women of child
bearing age, net immigration, and mortality
rates have relatively little variability within
a 15-year horizon. The Bureau of the Census
makes alternative projections of population
based on different assumptions about fertili-
Supply projections of gross national pro
duct (GNP) refer to the potential output of
the economy given its available resources,
in particular its human resources or man
power. This chapter discusses the factors
influencing the projections of supply GNP.
Population projections are the beginning
point for estimating potential GNP. The
population projections used in this study
are those developed by the Bureau of the
Census. Labor force projections were then
developed, utilizing estimated labor force
participation rates (percent of population
in the labor force) for various age and sex
groups. After deducting the Armed Forces
(set by assumption), a level of civilian em
ployment was determined by assuming an
unemployment rate for the civilian sector
of the economy and subtracting the result
ing unemployment level from the total civil
ian labor force, Employment was then con
verted to the basic productive unit for
labor—man-hours. This conversion required
projections of average annual hours per
employee. The final step in projecting poten
tial GNP was to project productivity or
output per man-hour, which, when multi
plied by total man-hours, yielded an esti
mate of supply GNP. A discussion of each
of the steps in the derivation of potential
GNP is presented in this chapter.
Population
Population growth depends primarily on
twc factors: the number of women of child
bearing age and their fertility rates. In
estimating population 15 years in the fu
ture, fertility rates are the more variable
factor, since the women who will reach
childbearing age are already living. Similar
ly, all the persons who will compose the
labor force during the projection period are
presently living. Thus, it is not primarily
the growth of the population which is of
10
Although total population growth is less important
than the characteristics of the existing population for
projecting total supply GNP, it is important in other
aspects of the projections. For example, per capita GNP
is affected by total population. The proportion of the
population under will have an effect on projected per
capita GNP. This is discussed in ch. 2.
12
Table 7.
U. S. population, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Projected
Population group
1955
1968
1965
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
Millions of persons
Population (including Armed Forces overseas)
......
165.9
194.3
2 0 0.7
2 0 4.9
20 7 .0
2 0 8.8
224.1
23 5.7
N o ninstitutional population 16 years and o ld.....
er
112.7
129.2
13 5.6
140.2
142.6
145.8
165.0
173.3
Average annual rates of change 1
Projected
1955-68
1965-72
19 72 -80
1968-85
19 68 -80
1980-85
Population (including Armed Forces overseas)
......
1.48
1.04
0.88
0.95
0.92
1.01
Noninstitutional population 16 years and o ld.....
er
1.43
1.74
1.57
1.45
1.65
98
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
19 72 . The projections are from series E
SOURCES: ( 1 ) Population, including Armed Forces overseas: Bureau
( 2 ) N oninstitutional population 16 years and older:
of the Census, Current Population Reports, series P-25, No. 493, Decem ber
Statistics.
ty.n Table 7 shows the 1980 and 1985
levels of the series E projections, which were
chosen as the basis of the BLS labor force
projections. Series E assumes a fertility
rate which averages 2.1 children per woman
at the completion of her childbearing
years.1 In general, the fertility level in
2
the series E projection is consistent with
birth expectations of the 18- to 24-year-old
wives surveyed in 1972, adjusted for pre
vious experience with projected birth ex
pectations.1 The 2.1 fertility rate com
3
pares with a 3.7 rate in 1960 during the
"baby boom.”
A fertility rate of 2.1 is referred to as
the "replacement rate” of fertility. Although
it is often said to imply zero population
growth, this applies only in the very long
run (i.e. well into the 21st century) and
does not consider the impact of immigra
tion. As can be seen in table 7, population
continues to grow under this assumption
through 1985. This is due to the unusually
large number of women entering childbear
ing age at the beginning of the projections,
of
Labor
i.e., the impact of the "baby boom.” If it
were not for the fact that a sharp reduction
in the birth rate has taken place — the"baby
bust” — there would be a sharp increase in
the number of births because of the increase
in the number of women of childbearing
age.
Labor force
Total change. Labor force projections are
derived from projections of the noninstitu
tional population age 16 and over by apply
ing projected participation rates for various
age and sex groups. While changing partici
pation rates have some effect on labor force
projections, the most important factor is the
changing composition of the population. This
is because the variations in participation
rates are much larger between age and sex
categories than over time within individual
categories. As an example, in 1968 the
participation rate for males 16 to 19 years
old was 60.6 percent, while for males 35
to 44 years old it was 97.2 percent. How
ever, the changes in participation rates with
in these two groups from 1960 to 1968
were only from 62.4 to 60.6 percent and
from 97.7 to 97.2 percent respectively.
As shown in table 8, the labor force is
expected to increase by 18.7 million per-
11 Current Population Reports, series P-25, No. 493
(Bureau of the Census, December 1972).
12 Denis F. Johnston, "T h e U. S. Labor Force: Pro
jections to 1990,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1973,
pp. 3-13.
13Current Population Reports, series P -2 0 , No. 240
(Bureau of the Census, September 1972), p.4.
Bureau
13
Average Annual Rates of Change in Population and Labor Force,
Actual and Projected, Selected Periods
u
b
CD
00
O
CD
LD
00
00
14
00
CD
6
00
L
O
Note: Rates are compound interest between terminal years.
o
CN
Table 8.
Total labor force by age and sex, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Millions of persons
Average annual ra te s
Projected
Category
1985 1955-68 1965-72 19 72 -80 1968-85 19 68 -80 1980-85
1955
1965
1968 1970 1971 1972
68.1
77.2
82 .3
85 .9
8 6 .9 89 .0 101.8 107.7
Male labor fo r c e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 7.5
.
.
16-24 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7
.
25-34 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5
35-54 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.7
.
55-64 ye a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1
.
65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5
.
50.9
9.8
10.7
21.6
6.8
2.1
53.0
11.0
11.4
21.5
7.0
2.2
54.3
11.8
12.0
21 .3
7.1
2.2
54 .8
12.1
12.3
21 .2
7.1
2.1
55.7
12.6
12.8
21.1
7.1
2.0
62 .6
13.5
17.5
21 .8
7.7
2.1
Female labor fo r c e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
16-24 ye a rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25-34 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
.....
35-54 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
55-64 y e a rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
26.2
5.9
4.3
11.4
3.6
1.0
29.2
7.2
5.1
12.0
3.9
1.0
31 .6
8.1
5.7
12.5
4.2
1.1
32.1 33 .3
8.4
8.9
5.9
6.5
12.5 12.6
4.2
4.2
1.1
1.1
39 .2
10.3
9.3
13.4
5.1
1.2
Total labor force (including m ilitary)
20 .6
4.2
4.3
9.0
2.4
.8
SOURCE:
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
1.47
2.06
1.69
1.60
1.79
1.13
66 .0
12.5
19.4
24 .4
7.7
2.1
.85
2.81
- 06
.67
1.07
-1 .2 2
1.28
3.7 0
2.66
-.3 5
.77
-.7 5
1.58
90
3.99
.37
1.00
.22
1.30
.74
3.19
74
.55
-.2 0
1.39
1.75
3.67
.11
.79
-.3 8
1.07
-1 .6 2
2.06
2.28
-.0 4
.23
41 .7
9.7
10.3
15.1
5.2
1.3
2 .7 4
4.26
1.40
2.27
3.91
1.92
3.48
6.09
6.01
1.36
2.36
1.52
2.09
1.78
4.48
.80
2.38
1.68
2.11
1.79
4.24
1.36
1.66
1.65
2.48
3.00
5.09
.93
2.11
1.81
1.23
-1 .0 7
2.24
2.41
.61
1.26
Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
increase, while the 16 to 24 age bracket
actually decreases by 1.6 million persons
between 1980 and 1985, marking thebeginning of the effects of the sharp decline in
fertility rates which began in the late 1950’s
and continued through the early 1970’s
(chart 2).
A second major factor affecting the labor
force and its composition has been the dra
matic increase in female participation rates,
especially those in the 16 to 34 age brack
et. From 1965 to 1972 the female labor
force grew at an annual rate of 3.48 per
cent, nearly triple the corresponding rate
for males (1.28 percent). The rapid increase
in labor force participation by women, partic
ularly those of childbearing age, is associ
ated, among other factors, with the recent
sharp decline in fertility rates. In the projec
tions, fertility rates are assumed to stabi
lize at their recent low levels. Thus, although
the female labor force is projected to grow
more rapidly than the male labor force, the
difference between their projected rates of
growth is much less than it was from 1965
to 1972 or from 1955 to 1968. Consequently,
while the portion of the labor force which
women constitute increased from 30percent
in 1955 to over 37 percent in 1972, it is
only expected to expand to 38.7 percent by
1985.
sons between 1972 and 1985, reaching a
level of 107.7 million in 1985. The rapid
increase in the labor force due to the post
war "baby boom” began in the late 1960’s
and will taper off beginning about 1978.
This effect is reflected in the growth pattern
of the labor force, which is projected to
grow 1.79 percent annually from 1968 to
1980 (1.69 percent in 1972-80) but slows
to 1.13 percent between 1980 and 1985.
Changing composition. Not only is the rate
of increase of the labor force going to
change in the future but its age-sex compo
sition will change as well. While not directly
relevant to the supply GNP, this changing
composition does have important implica
tions. The effects of past population growth
are particularly evident in the age distribu
tion of the labor force. For example, the
share of the labor force 25 to 34 years of
age increases from 19.4 percent in 1965 to
27.6 percent in 1985. The movement of
the postwar cohort is also evident in the
growth rates of various age groups. Its
entry into the labor force is reflected in
very high growth rates for the 16- to 24year-old group from 1965 to 1972. Between
1968 and 1980, the group 24 to 35 is the
faster growing age group. After 1980, the
growth of the 35 to 54 age group begins to
1980
of change i
Projected
15
Chart 2.
Labor Force by Age, 19 6 0 ,19 7 2 , and Projected for 1980 and 1985
M illions
110
16 to 19 years
100
90
80
20 to 34 years
70
60
50
40
35 to 54 years
30
20
10
55 years
and over
0
1960
1972
1980
16
1985
Employment: persons and jobs
Conversion from persons to jobs. Theoreti
cally, the relationship between labor force
and employment is a simple one. Employ
ment can be derived by subtracting unem
ployed persons in the labor force from the
total labor force. However, there are two
measures of employment available. One is
prepared for the BLS by the Bureau of the
Census from its Current Population Survey.
It is usually referred to as the "household
series” because it is obtained through a
survey of households. This census employ
ment measure is essentially a count of per
sons who are employed. The second employ
ment series is prepared by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics and is based on a count of
jobs rather than persons. It is often termed
the "establishment series” because it is
derived from a survey of business establish
ments. Since the labor force estimates are
derived from the household survey, employ
ment figures which are derived by applying
an employment rate to labor force projec
tions correspond to the first type of employ
ment measure. However, for the purpose of
estimating GNP output and employment
within an input-output system, the estab
lishment measure of employment is used
because it is available in greater industry
detail.
The procedure followed in the projection
of "jobs” employment is to first estimate
"persons” employment from the labor force
projections and then convert to jobs by
means of an "adjustment factor.” The ad
justment factor compensates for a number
of differences between the two employment
concepts. To illustrate, a brief summary
of the adjustments for 1968 follows. 1
4
One of the most important differences is
that the job concept counts multiple job
holders separately, i.e., for each job they
hold, while the household survey does not
distinguish between single and multiplejobholders. The estimated effect of multiple
jobholding for 1968 was to add 2.2 million
jobs to the number measured by the house-
hold series. Further, the labor force is based
on persons 16 years of age and over, while
the job count in the establishment series
includes those under 16 years of age. In
1968, these younger workers numbered
484,000. A third source of discrepancy be
tween the two employment measures relates
to persons who are on unpaid absences from
work. The household series counts these
persons as employed but the establishment
series does not. The size of this discrepancy
was estimated as 1.6 million persons in
1968. Finally, since the household survey is
controlled by Census of Population numbers,
its results are affected by the census
undercount. It is estimated that the 1960
census undercount resulted in a 2.4-million
persons employment undercount in 1968.
The four factors discussed above account
for most of the difference between jobs and
persons employment estimates. The remain
ing differences are smaller and more diffi
cult to quantify. They include, for example,
differences in coverage, timing, sampling,
and estimating techniques.
Table 9 shows both employment series
and the adjustment factors for selected
historical years and as projected for 1980
and 1985. Both employment projections
have growth rates and patterns very simi
lar to those of the labor force. The pro
jections of employed persons are based on
assumed unemployment rates which decline
from current levels to 4 percent by 1975
and remain there through 1985. In the
absence of a consistent and predictable
relationship between total labor force and
the adjustment factor, the 1980 and 1985
adjustment factors were assumed to have
the same ratio to total labor force as the
average of 1967-70. Jobs are projected to
grow at 1.71 percent annually from 1968
to 1980 and to slow to 1.13 percent after
1980. The fact that employment on a jobs
basis grows more slowly than the total
labor force from 1968 to 1980 is due to the
high level of employment in 1968 and the
fact that unemployment was less than 4
percent in 1968.
14The estimates and much of the discussion are
based on an article by Gloria P. Green, "Comparing
Employment Estimates from Household and Payroll Se
ries,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1969, p. 12.
Projected employment. The projections in
table 9 show a change in the relative
growth rates of government and private
17
Table 9.
Labor force, employment, hours, productivity, and potential GNP, selected years 195 572 and projected for 1980 and 1985
--------------1
Projected
Category
1955
1965
1968
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
Total labor force (including m ilitary) (m illio n s )
...........
68.1
Unem ployed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9
Employed (p e rs o n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 .2
A djustm ent factor (to jo b s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0
Em ploym ent (jo b s ) (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 .3
G overn m ent2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5
Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7
M ilita r y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0
C ivilian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7
.
State and local. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7
P riv a te 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 9.8
A g ricu ltu ral. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4
N onagricu ltu ra.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 .3
Average annual m a n -h o u rs -p rivate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,130
..
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,4 8 0
.
N ona griculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,0 8 8
.
Total private man-hours (b illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 7.3
.
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.0
.
N ona g ricu ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111.4
Private GNP per man-hour (1 9 6 3 d o lla rs.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
3.30
A gricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.24
N onagriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.59
.
Total GNP (billio n s of 1963 d o lla rs .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 8.7
..
Governm ent o u tp u .t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 .8
Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.7
M ilita r y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.9
C ivilian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.8
State and loc al. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.1
.
Private G N P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 1 9.9
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.8
N ona griculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400.1
.
77.2
3.4
73.8
3.9
77 .7
12.0
4.6
2.7
1.8
7.4
65.7
4.3
6 1 .4
2,052
2,3 7 6
2,0 2 9
134.8
10.3
124.5
4.45
2.17
4.64
6 6 1 .8
61 .7
25 .4
11.7
13.7
36.3
600.1
22 .4
577.7
82 .3
2.8
79 .5
5.4
84 .9
14.5
5.6
3.5
2.1
8.8
70 .4
3.8
6 6 .6
2,0 0 0
2,3 1 4
1,982
140.9
8.8
13 2.0
4.86
2.5 0
5.02
75 9.2
74 .0
30.7
15.0
15.6
4 3 .3
6 8 5 .2
22.1
66 3.1
85 .9
4.1
81 .8
5.1
86 .9
14.7
5.1
3.1
2.0
9.6
72.1
3.4
68 .7
1,968
2 ,2 8 4
1,952
14 2.0
7.8
134.2
4.94
3.00
5.05
776.1
75 .4
28 .4
13.2
15.2
47 .0
70 0.7
23 .4
6 7 7 .2
86 .9
5.0
81 .9
4.7
86 .6
14.7
4.7
2.7
2.0
10.0
71 .9
3.4
S8.5
1,962
2 ,2 9 3
1,946
89.0
4.8
84.2
4.4
8 8 .5
14.8
4.4
2.4
2.0
10.4
73.7
3.5
70 .3
1,965
2,267
1,950
14 4.8
7.8
137.0
5.34
2.97
5.47
8 4 8.9
76.1
25 .4
10.3
15.1
50 .8
7 7 2.8
23 .2
74 9.5
10 1.8
4.0
97 .8
6.3
104.1
17.5
4.1
2.0
2.1
13.4
86 .6
2.3
84 .3
1,9 2 0
2 ,180
1,913
16 6.3
5.0
161.3
6.85
4.77
6.91
1,2 2 8 .2
89 .6
24 .0
8.6
15.4
65 .6
1 ,1 3 8 .6
23 .9
1 ,114 .7
107.7
4.2
10 3.5
6.6
110.1
19.6
4.1
2.0
2.1
15.5
90 .5
1.9
88 .6
1,888
2,1 2 7
1,8 8 3
170.9
4.0
166.9
7.85
6.21
7.89
1,4 4 1 .5
100.1
24 .2
8.6
15.7
75.8
1,3 4 1 .5
25.1
1,3 1 6 .4
141.1
7.7
133.4
5.14
3.20
5.25
8 0 0 .4
75 .4
26.7
11.7
14.9
4 8 .8
7 2 5 .0
2 4 .6
7 0 0 .4
See footnotes at end of table.
sector employment. Between 1955 and
1968, the average annual growth rate of
public employment was 3.3 percent a year
while private employment grew at an aver
age annual rate of 1.3 percent. This dif
ference in growth was due almost entirely
to State and local employment, which
grew at a rate of 4.9 percent. The growth
rates projected from 1968 to 1985 for pub
lic and private employment are much closer
together. The projections for public employ
ment assume a continuation of the decline
in Federal total employment (including
Armed Forces) which began in 1969. Much
of the decline is due to the post-Vietnam
military cutback which is most evident in
the growth rates projected from a 1968
base. The decline in military forces contin
ues after 1972, reflecting conversion to a
smaller, volunteer army. After 1980 mili
tary employment is assumed to remain at
2 million persons, far below the 1968 Armed
Forces level of 3.5 million. Federal civilian
employment is projected to be 2.1 million
persons in 1985, nearly the same as its
1968 level. Because of declining military
employment and stable civilian Federal em
ployment, the Federal Government share of
total employment is projected to decrease
from 6.6 percent in 1968 to 3.7 percent in
1985.1
5
State and local government employment
is projected to grow more slowly than in the
past, although still at a rate well above
private employment. Growing at an average
annual rate of 3.5 percent from 1968 to
15A t this stage government enterprise employment is
excluded from government employment (Federal, State,
and local) and included in private nonagricultural em
ployment. In ch. 5 government employment, consistent
with BLS definitions, includes government enterprise
employment.
18
Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1
Category
Projected
19 55 -68
1.47
.09
1.53
2.30
1.54
3.30
1.30
1.17
1.54
4.93
1.27
- 3.94
1.72
-.4 8
-.5 3
-.4 0
.78
-4 .4 5
1.32
3.02
5.54
2.61
3.78
3.25
1.38
1.17
1.53
4.95
3.84
.85
3.96
-
1 9 65 -72
1 9 72 -80
1 9 68 -85
2 .0 6
5 .3 3
1.89
1.57
1.87
3.0 3
- .46
- 1.82
1.37
4.8 8
1.66
-3 .2 2
1.96
-.6 2
- .67
-.5 7
1.03
-3 .8 7
1.38
2.6 4
4.5 9
2 .3 8
3.62
3.0 4
.00
- 1.80
1.40
4.9 2
3.68
.50
3.79
1.69
- 2.3 4
1.98
4.6 4
2 .0 5
2.12
- 1.06
-2 .2 2
.32
3.38
2.03
-5 .6 7
2.31
-.2 9
-.5 0
-.3 2
1.74
-5 .4 2
2.06
3.18
6.1 0
2.9 9
4.7 3
2 .0 5
.71
2.27
.22
3.2 4
4.96
.49
5.09
1.60
2.4 2
1.57
1.19
1.54
1.81
-1 .8 3
-3 .2 7
.0 2
3.36
1.49
-4 .0 2
1.69
- .34
- .49
- .30
1.14
-4 .4 9
1.39
2.8 6
5.50
2.70
3.8 4
1.79
-1 .4 1
-3 .2 2
.04
3.35
4 .0 3
.75
4.12
1968-80
1.79
2.95
1.75
1.21
1.71
1.59
- 2.64
-4 .5 9
- .09
3.52
1.74
- 4.1 3
1.98
- .34
- .50
- .29
1.39
-4 .6 1
1.68
2.90
5.53
2.70
4.09
1.61
-2 .0 3
- 4.5 3
-.1 1
3.52
4.32
.65
4.42
1980-85
1.13
1.16
1.13
1.13
1.13
2.33
.15
.00
.29
2.95
.89
— 3.75
1.00
- .34
- .49
- .32
.55
-4 .2 2
.68
2.76
5.42
2.69
3.25
2.24
.16
.00
.39
2.93
3.33
.98
3.38
Total labor force (including m ilitary) (m illio n s )
Unem ployed.
Employed (p e rs o n s ).
Adjustm ent factor (to jobs).
Em ploym ent (jobs) (m illio n s ).
Governm ent 2
Federal.
Military
Civilian.
State and local.
Private 3 .
Agricultural.
N onagricultural.
Average annual m an-hours-private.
Agriculture..
Nonagriculture.
Total private man-hours (b illio n s ).
Agriculture.
Nonagriculture.
Private CNP per m an-hour (1 9 6 3 d o lla rs ).
Agriculture..
Nonagriculture.
Total GNP (billio n s of 1963 dollars) .
Government output.
Federal.
M ilita r y .
Civilian.
S tate and local.
Private G N P.
Agriculture.
Nonagriculture.
' Compound interest rates between term in al years.
this bulletin which are consistent with the BLS em ploym ent data base.
2 Government em ploym ent figures are fu ll-tim e and p a rt-tim e em ploy
3 Private em ploym ent and to tal hours paid were compiled by the O ffice
m ent from U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. of Productivity, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
They are d iffe re n t from th e government em ploym ent data used elsewhere in
Derivation of civilian employment control
totals. The previous discussion described
the translation of employment on a persons
concept to employment on a jobs concept.
There is a further adjustment or conversion
in the employment series which is not used
in deriving the supply GNP but is important
in subsequent chapters in discussing em
ployment by industry. This conversion is
the derivation of civilian employment con
trol totals using a BLS measure of govern
ment employment. The government employ
ment described earlier is based on data
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of
the U. S. Department of Commerce and is
used to be consistent with the GNP data
needed for the derivation of supply GNP.
However, since the data on private sector
1980, State and local employment reaches
13.4 million by 1980, then slows its growth
rate to 3.0 percent a year, reaching 15.5
million in 1985.
Private employment, which still accounts
for the bulk of total employment, is projected
to grow at an annual rate of 1.7 percent
from 1968 to 1980. The increase over its
1955-68 rate of 1.3 percent is due to the
rapid increase in the labor force beginning
in the late 1960’s. As the postwar genera
tion becomes absorbed into the labor force,
the growth in employment slows markedly.
The 1980-85 rate of increase for private
employment is projected at less than 1 per
cent a year. This slowdown has a major
impact on the projections of GNP, as will be
discussed later in this chapter.
19
employment by industry are a BLS series,
it is desirable for the sake of consistency
to use a BLS measure of government em
ployment. This derivation of civilian employ
ment control totals is shown in table 10
data for selected historical years and pro
jected for 1980 and 1985. This level of civil
ian employment and its composition is the
one discussed in detail in chapter 5.
Hours
Private employment projections are con
verted to estimates of man-hours, which are
the basic unit of labor input to production,
by multiplying employment by a projected
level of average annual hours per employee.
The measure of man-hours used is "hours
paid.” Although the number of man-hours
Table 10. Derivation of civilian employment control totals, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Thousands
Projected
Component
1955
1965
1. Total em ploym ent (jo b c o n c e p. t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 ,2 5 2
.
2. Less: general governm ent (n a tio n al incom e basis) 9,475
..
3. Total p /iv ate em ploym ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59,77 7
4. A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 ,434
5. N ona g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3 ,3 4 3
.
6. S elf-em p lo ye.d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,827
.
524
7. Unpaid fam ily w orkers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
8. H ouseholds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 ,2 8 5
946
9. G overnm ent en te rp ris e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
10. Wage and salary em ploym ent (p r iv a ......
te )
43,76 1
Adjustm en t to BLS governm ent basis:
6,9 1 4
.
11. BLS to ta l civilian g o v ern m e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12. BLS to ta l nonagriculture wage and salary . . . . . . . . . .
...
50 ,6 7 5
13. Total civilian em ploym ent, BLS governm ent basis.... 6 5 ,7 4 5
1968
1970
1971
1972
1980
7 7 ,6 8 9
11 ,99 4
6 5 ,6 9 5
4 ,338
6 1 ,35 7
6,1 7 7
617
2 ,604
1,217
5 0 ,7 4 2
8 4 ,8 7 3
14,45 3
7 0 ,42 0
3,816
6 6 ,6 0 4
6,211
547
2,4 3 7
1,343
5 6 ,0 7 0
8 6 ,8 7 7
14 ,71 9
7 2 ,1 5 8
3,421
6 8 ,7 3 7
6,411
569
2 ,2 7 9
1,420
58,05 8
8 6 ,5 9 2
14,69 3
7 1 ,89 9
3 ,3 5 3
6 8 ,5 4 6
6 ,502
589
2 ,2 4 0
1,426
5 7 ,7 8 9
8 8 ,50 6
14 ,78 6
7 3 ,7 2 0
3,4 5 0
7 0 ,2 7 0
6 ,6 0 8
583
2,191
1,416
5 9 ,4 7 4
1 0 4 ,0 7 6
1 7 ,47 0
8 6 ,6 0 6
2 ,300
8 4 ,3 0 6
6 ,7 1 5
560
1,825
1,640
7 3 ,56 6
1 1 0 ,1 0 9
1 9 ,60 0
9 0 ,5 0 9
1,900
8 8 ,6 0 9
6 ,7 1 5
525
1,660
1,700
7 8 ,0 0 9
10,07 4
6 0 ,8 1 5
7 4 ,5 5 2
11,845
6 7 ,9 1 5
8 0 ,9 2 6
1 2 ,53 5
7 0 ,7 3 8
8 3 ,2 7 3
1 2 ,8 5 6
7 0 ,4 7 1
8 3 ,32 7
1 3 ,29 0
7 2 ,7 6 4
8 5 ,5 9 7
1 6 ,61 0
9 0 ,17 0
1 0 1 ,5 7 6
1 8 ,80 0
9 6 ,8 0 9
1 0 7,6 09
1985
Average annual rates of change i
Projected
1955-68
. .
Total em ploym ent (jo b c o n c e p. t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Less: general governm ent (n a tio n al incom e basis)...
...
Total private em ploym ent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4 A g ricu ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
5. N o na griculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6. S elf-em ployed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
..
7. Unpaid fam ily w orkers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8. H ouseholds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9. Governm ent e n te rp ris e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
10. Wage and salary em ploym ent (p riv a......
te )
Adjustm en t to BLS governm ent basis:
11. BLS to ta l civilian g o v ern m e. n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
12. BLS to ta l nonagriculture wage and salary
.............
13. Total civilian em ploym ent, BLS governm ent basis...
1.
2.
3.
1
1965-72
19 72 -80
0.9
1.3
.7
-3 .0
1.1
.5
1.3
1.0
2.2
1.1
1.9
3.0
1.7
- 3.2
2.0
1.0
-.8
- 2.4
1.4
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.0
-4 .9
2.3
.2
- .5
-2 .3
1.9
2.7
1.5
1.8
1.5
- 4.0
1.7
.5
- .2
-2 .2
1.7
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.7
- 4.1
2.0
.7
.2
_ 2.4
1.9
2.3
2.9
1.4
1.1
4.0
2.6
1.8
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.8
2.1
1.7
2.9
2.4
1.9
7.
Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCES:
Line 1. Sum of lines 2 and 3.
2. U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Data are consistent with data on govern
m ent em ploym ent in table 2. General governm ent
excludes governm ent enterprises.
3, 4, and 5. BLS O ffice of Productivity and Technolgy. Line 5 is th e sum of lines 6-10.
6. U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis.
20
8,
10.
11.
12.
13.
1968-85
1968-80
1980-85
1.1
2.3
.9
- 3.7
1.0
0
- 1.3
- 1.9
.7
1.2
2.5
1.4
1.2
BLS data from household survey.
9. U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of Eco
nom ic Analysis.
BLS data from establishm ent survey.
BLS data from establishm ent survey. Governm ent
includes governm ent enterprises.
BLS data from establishm ent survey.
Sum of lines 4 , 6 , 7 , 8 , and 12. This is the control
to ta l used in chapter 5 for detailed em ploym ent
projections.
worked would be more appropriate for meas
uring productivity, these data are not avail
able in sufficient industry detail. The "hours
paid” measure of labor input does not re
flect changes in paid vacation or sick leave;
thus an increase in paid leave would, by
itself, tend to lower the apparent productiv
ity of labor as measured by output per paid
man-hour.
ways. Within the nonagricultural sector
there has been a relatively rapid growth in
the services, trade, and construction in
dustries which have relatively large shares
of part-time employment as compared to
manufacturing, for example. The second
aspect of the changing industry mix is the
decline in the number of agricultural em
ployees. The downward trend in farm work
ers has contributed to the overall decrease
in average hours because average hours of
agricultural employees are considerably
higher than for nonagricultural employees.
In 1968, for example, annual hours per
employee in agriculture averaged 2,314,
while for the nonagricultural sector they
averaged 1,982.
Historical trend in hours. Average annual
hours worked have been declining. As shown
in table 9 , in the private economy average
hours decreased at an annual rate of 0.5
percent between 1955 and 1968. Average
agricultural hours, although higher than in
the nonagricultural sector, have been declin
ing faster. Very little of the recent decrease
in average hours in the nonagricultural sec
tors has been the result of shorter standard
workweeks. Rather, it has reflected changes
in the number of part-time employees and
the changing industry mix. The 1966 to
1971 period was one of very rapid decreases
in average hours, primarily as a result of
the relative increase in part-time employ
ment. For example, voluntary part-time
employment as a percent of total employ
ment rose from 11.4 percent in 1966 to
13.5 percent in 1972 (table 11). Two of the
most important factors in this growth were
increases in the number of women entering
the labor force on a part-time basis and in
the number of college and high school stu
dents working part time while enrolled in
school.
The changing industry mix has contribu
ted to the decline in average hours in two
Table 1 1 .
Projected trend in hours. Average annual
hours in the private sector are projected to
continue declining at 0.34 percent a year.
This rate of decrease is less than has been
experienced since the mid-1960’s, but is
comparable to the 1947-66 rate of decline of
0.32 percent for the nonagricultural sector.
As agricultural employment carries a small
er and smaller weight in the total, the
trend in total average hours approaches
more closely that of the nonagricultural
sector.
Projected average annual hours in the
private nonagricultural sector assume a
return to the long-term trend following a
period of relatively rapid declines in hours.
This deceleration of the downward move
ment primarily reflects the change in parttime employment among women and college
students — whose numbers are projected to
Total nonagricultural employment and voluntary part-time nonagricultural employment, 1966-72
Category
1966 1
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
Average annual
rate so fc h an g e
1 9 66 -72 2
Total nonagricultural em ploym ent at
w o rk (th o u s a n d s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 5 ,4 5 3
6 6 ,82 6
6 8 ,0 4 5
70,018
70 ,68 4
71,14 6
7 3 ,66 2
1.99
Voluntary p a rt-tim e nonagricultural
em ploym ent a t work (th o u s a n d s ). . . . . . . . . .
7,441
8 ,048
8,452
9,027
9,387
9 ,503
9,9 3 7
4.9 4
Voluntary pa rt-tim e as a percent of
..
total em ploym ent a t w ork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.4
12.0
12.4
12.9
13.3
13.4
13.5
-
1 Data prior to 1966 are not com parable because they included 1 4 - and 15-year-olds.
2 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
21
SOURCE:
Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
increase more slowly in the future. The
rapid increase in part-time employment,
which was a major factor in creating the
0.6-percent annual rate of decrease in nonagricultural average hours from 1965 to
1972, is not expected to continue in the
projections. Between 1968 and 1985 nonagricultural hours are projected to decrease
at 0.3 percent a year.
Two of the major reasons for the pro
jected slowdown in the decline of average
hours relate to demographic phenomena
(discussed in detail earlier). The first of
these demographic factors is that the large
influx into the high school and college age
population which was a result of the large
postwar generation is largely over. During
the projections period, these persons will
move up into the age group where they will
be more likely to seek full-time employment,
thus decreasing the supply of student parttime labor. The second demographic factor
relates to the fertility rate projections. To
the extent that recent declines in the fertil
ity rate have been associated with increases
in female labor force participation, the
assumption of a stabilizing of fertility rates
near their present levels implies a slowdown
in the growth in the number of women will
ing to be part-time workers. Thus, these
two factors are the principal reasons for the
projected slowing in the rate of decline in
private nonagricultural hours.
Total private man-hours, which result
from the projections of employment and
average annual hours, are expected to grow
at a rate of 1.1 percent annually from 1968
to 1985. Total man-hours in agriculture are
projected to decline at nearly the same rate
as in the 1955 to 1968 period. By 1985,
agricultural man-hours are only 2.4 percent
of total private man-hours. Of course, the
sharp decli e in the growth in total and
nonagricultural man-hours after 1980 is a
result of the labor force slowdown and the
resulting employment slowdown rather than
of any change expected in the rate of de
cline in average hours.
is the productivity of labor, measured as
private GNP per man-hour paid. Because
of the definition of government output in
the national income accounts, government
productivity is handled separately. The pro
ductivity of public employees is assumed
to be constant over time; therefore their
output in any year is defined as the num
ber of employees times the level of compen
sation per employee which prevailed in the
base year, 1963 in this study.1
6
Within the private sector, two types of
change may bring about movements in
productivity. One type of change occurs
within individual industries and is the
result of changes in technology or in the
quality of the labor force. The other type
of change is the result of shifts in the
importance of industries or sectors of the
economy which have different levels of pro
ductivity. It has been estimated that nearly
90 percent of the change in productivity
which occurred between 1947 and 1966 was
due to the first factor (change within an
industry) while about 10 percent of the
productivity change was due to the second
factor (shifts between industries).1 The
7
most important of the shifts was from the
low-productivity farm sector (although the
rate of farm productivity was rising rapidly)
to the relatively high-productivity nonagri
cultural sector. Because of the great
disparity in productivity levels and rates
of growth in these two sectors, they have
been projected separately.
The projected average annual growth
rate for total private output per man-hour
in 1963 dollars is 2.9 percent from 1968 to
1980 and 2.8 from 1980 to 1985. During
the 1968-85 period, nonagricultural output
per man-hour was assumed to grow at 2.7
percent annually, which is consistent with
its longrun historical trend.
16
The effect of this definition of government output
is to make constant-dollar GNP estimates more sensitive
to shifts between public and private employment. An in
crease in the share of employment in the public sector,
given some level of total employment growth, would have
the effect of decreasing the growth rate of potential
GNP.
Labor productivity (output per man-hour)
17 Jerome A. Mark, "W a g e Price Guidepost Statis
tics: Problems of Measurement,” American Statistical
Association 1968: Proceedings of the Business and Eco
nomic Statistics Section, pp. 123-29.
The link between the man-hour projec
tions and potential private GNP estimates
22
An important pattern in the cyclical
behavior of productivity change which is
hidden by averaging the growth from 1968
to 1980 is reflected in the 1965-72 and
1972-80 growth rates also shown in table
9. The period from 1965 through 1970 was
one of very low productivity gains, with an
average annual growth of only 1.7 percent
in the nonagricultural sector. After 1970,
productivity in this sector began to recover
and grew at an annual rate of over 4 per
cent in 1970-72. This recovery of productiv
ity is assumed to continue through the late
1970’ s, after which the growth of nonagri
cultural output per man-hour returns to
its historical rate of 2.7 percent. Thus,
although the 1972 to 1980 rate of pro
ductivity gain in the nonagricultural sector,
at 3.0 percent a year (table 9) is above the
long-term trend, it can be viewed as a
recovery period — the recovery returns pro
ductivity to its long-term trend rate of 2.7
percent by 1980.
The rapid growth in agricultural produc
tivity of 5.5 percent from 1955 to 1968 is in
line with long-term historical trends. This
relatively rapid growth has been due to the
great amount of technological change which
has occurred in the agricultural sector. Farm
productivity is projected to continue its
growth, displaying a pattern similar to that
in the nonagricultural sector. However, its
effect on the growth rate of overall private
output per man-hour declines as its share
of toted output and employment continues
to decline. Thus, total private productivity
growth (just as the trend in average hours)
moves closer to the nonagricultural pro
ductivity rate of growth as the farm share
falls.
represents an increase of $592.6 billion
from the 1972 level of $848.9 billion. The
projected growth in GNP is more rapid
from 1968 to 1980 (4.1 percent a year)
than after 1980 (3.3 percent a year). This
compares with a growth in GNP of 3.8 per
cent a year from 1955 to 1968 (chart 3).
Slower growth after 1980 is primarily a
result of the projected labor force slowdown.
This slowdown will dominate the discussions
of income and demand GNP and output and
employment by industry which follow in
subsequent chapters.1
9
Private GNP is projected to grow at an
average annual rate of 4.3 percent from
1968 to 1980. After 1980, its growth rate
decreases to 3.3 percent. Its pattern of
growth is thus similar to that of toted GNP.
Most of the gains in the private sector take
place in the nonagricultural sector. (In agri
culture, increasing productivity barely off
sets losses in manpower.)
The public sector as a whole shows a
much lower growth rate than the private
sector as well as a considerable decrease
over its own historical rates. In fact, the
1.6-percent growth rate projected for 1968
to 1980 is about half of the 1955-68 rate.
The slowdown in the growth of the govern
ment sector GNP from 1968 to 1980 results
from actual decreases in the Federal sector
and a slowdown in the rate of growth of the
State and local sector. In the Federal sector,
decreases in military personnel are pro
jected; Federal civilian employment for
1968-80 is projected to be stable. However,
from 1968 to 1972 a decline occurred in the
Federal civilian sector, so that for 1972-80
it is projected to show a modest increase.
State and local GNP growth slowed from
the 1955-68 rate of 5.0 percent to an aver
age annual rate of 3.4 percent from 1968
to 1985.
The relative decrease in public sector
Supply GNP
Projected GNP growth. The projections of
labor force, unemployment, employment,
average hours, and productivity, when com
bined, result in a projected 1985 GNP of
$1,441.5 billion (in 1963 dollars).1 This
8
l9The 1968-80 growth in real GNP (4 .0 9 percent a
year) is somewhat different if stated in 1972 dollars or
1958 dollars — 3.98 and 4 .1 0 percent respectively. This
difference in growth rates arises primarily because the
government share of GNP varies considerably depend
ing on the price level in which it is stated. This follows
since by assumption government has no change in pro
ductivity and thus all wage changes in government (but
not in the private sector) are considered as price in
creases; the later the constant-dollar price base; the
larger the government share.
18The sequence of projections can be summarized as:
Projected labor force less unemployed equals employment
(person concept); converted to jobs and multiplied by
average hours equals total man-hours; multiplied by
output per man-hour equals supply GNP.
23
Chart 3.
Average Annual Rates of Change in Labor Force, Employment, Productivity,
and Gross National Product, Actual and Projected, Selected Periods
Percent
-
1.0
Total labor force
(including m ilita ry)
Unemployed (persons)
Employed (persons)
Private em ploym ent (jobs)
Average annual man-hours
(private)
Total private man-hours
Private GNP per man-hour
(1963 dollars)
Total GNP (1963 dollars)
Note: Rates are compound interest between terminal years.
lower than the assumed long-term level
of 4 percent. For all of the other factors —
average hours, labor force growth, and
output per man-hour— 1968 was on or very
near the long-term trend.2 Therefore, no
0
adjustments for these factors were consid
ered necessary. If the adjustment is made
for the level of unemployment, the 196880 potential growth rate of the U. S.
economy becomes 4.13 percent compared
with the 4.09 percent derived without adjust
ment. 2'
employment and GNP contributes to a more
rapid growth of constant-dollar GNP than
would have been predicted if the public and
private sector shares of out-put had
remained constant. Although a shift in out
put is taking place, its impact is modest—
the 1985 share of private GNP is 93
percent compared to the 1972 share of 91
percent.
Potential GNP growth. While the projections
of GNP reflect the potential output of the
economy in 1980 and 1985 with fully em
ployed manpower resources, the growth
rate from 1968 to 1980 cannot be considered
potential. The base year, 1968, needs to
be adjusted for any deviation from trend
or potential. Unemployment in 1968 was
20
This determination was made by calculating a
least squares trend line, plotting the residuals from the
trend line, and observing the 1968 value.
21 For a related discussion, see Arthur M. Okun,
"Upw ard Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy,” Brook
ings Papers on Economic A ctivity, Issue 1: 1973, pp.
207-61.
25
Chapter 2. Income and Demand GNP
The previous chapter was devoted to the
discussion of potential GNP estimates. The
purpose of this chapter is to discuss the
major components of GNP from two points
of view. GNP is a measure of the flow of
goods and services produced and consumed
annually. It can thus be measured at two
points in the flow, as it is produced or as
it is consumed. GNP measured at the point
of production, which is termed income GNP,
consists of the sum of the earnings of the
factors of production. Demand GNP, on the
other hand, is the term for GNP measured
at the point of consumption or final demand.
The first section of this chapter discusses
the primary income components of GNP;
the second section discusses prices. In the
final section the demand components of
GNP are presented.
The primary income and demand com
ponents of GNP are projected with the aid
of a macroeconometric model which was
originally developed by Lester Thurow of
the Massachusetts Institute of Tech
nology.2 The model (discussed in more
2
detail in appendix A) has three sectors.
The first sector projects the potential sup
ply GNP. This section of the model has
been overridden by the derivation of supply
GNP discussed in chanter 1. The supply
part of the model was not used because
it was believed to overstate the potential
growth in the economy.2 The remaining
3
two sections of the macromodel are devoted
to estimating the income and demand com
ponents of GNP. In essence, the production
of supply GNP generates the income com-
ponents and personal income and these in
turn determine the demands.If the resulting
estimate of demand GNP is not equal to the
supply estimate of GNP, it is necessary to
bring about equality by modifying various
policy assumptions. In practice this is done
only until the gap between demand and
supply is sufficiently small .so that it is not
worth rerunning the model. The residual
gap is then allocated on a judgmental basis.
In the projections, the 1985 residual be
tween supply and demand GNP was only
0.04 percent of GNP in 1985 and 0.26
percent in 1980.2
4
Income GNP
The components of GNP as measured by
the income approach are frequently pre
sented in two different ways. The basic
building blocks of income GNP are catego
rized according to the form in which they
are paid. These categories are: (1) wages
and salaries (including supplements), (2)
proprietors’ income, (3) rented income, (4)
net interest income, and (5) corporate pro
fits and inventory valuation adjustment. The
second method frequently used is a deriva
tion of personal income, that is, income
which accrues to persons rather than to
corporations or directly to governments.
The Thurow model utilizes this method since
personal income net of personal taxes is an
important link between supply GNP and
demand GNP in the model. The derivation
of personal income is shown in appendix B,
table B2. Because the focus of these pro
jections is on how the changing structure
of the economy will affect employment by
22See Lester Thurow, " A Fiscal Policy Model of the
U. S .,” Survey of Current Business, June 1969, pp.
45-64. The original model developed by Lester Thurow
has been revised and updated by the Bureau of Econo
mic Analysis of the U. S. Department of Commerce and
the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
23 See appendix A for a fuller discussion of the factors
behind the decision not to use the production function in
the macromodel.
24
In the Thurow macromodel a considerable number
of exogenous variables are used. These data are tabu
lated for selected historical years and projected for 1980
and 1985 in appendix table B -l.
26
industry, this section will discuss the sources
and disposition of income in three categories
— personal income, business, and govern
ment.2 This method ofpresentationisused
5
because it provides a more direct approach
to the discussion of the structure of demand
GNP in the final part of this chapter.
Personal income: its sources and disposition.
Total personal income, the largest income
category, is projected to increase at 8.0
percent a year during 1968-80 (stated in
current prices), or appreciably faster than
the 6.3 percent a year rate over the
1955-68 period. The increased rate reflects
both the faster real growth in GNP and the
faster rate of price increase projected. The
projected growth in personal income slows
down from 1980 to 1985 because of the
slowing in growth of real GNP and the
somewhat lower rate of price increase. Table
12 depicts two facets of income flows —
first, the sources of personal income such
as compensation, dividends, or government
transfer payments (such as social security),
and second, the disposition of personal in
come among personal consumption expendi
tures, taxes, interest, or savings.
Among the sources of personal income —
compensation of employees, government
transfers, and other 2 —most categories fol
6
low the same pattern of growth — apprecia
bly faster in 1968-80 than in 1955-68 — then
slowing from 1980 to 1985 to a rate more
nearly comparable to the 1955-68 period.
The one major category which does not
parallel this pattern is government trans
fers to persons. These are projected to rise
over the period 1968-80 by 10.1 percent a
year,- or the same pace as in 1955-68,
while’' the slowdown in 1980-85 is much
sharper than for other income categories,
falling to a growth rate of 5.0 percent. The
growth in transfer payments during 197280 is only 7.7 percent a year, which is a
marked slowdown from the extremely rapid
growth of transfer payments during 1968-72.
The past rapid growth of transfer pay25 The foreign sector is not discussed in this report.
26 Other income covers rental income, interest in
come, dividends, proprietors’ income, and business trans
fers to persons.
ments resulted not only from increases in
real benefits, but from the broadening cover
age of social security and the increased
number of individuals receiving welfare pay
ments. The projections assume that the
broadening of coverage will not be an im
portant factor in the future: transfer pay
ments will increase only as real benefits
increase or as prices increase, and to a
much lesser extent because of any expan
sion of the number of individuals covered.
This projected slower expansion in transfer
payments means that their relative contri
bution to personal income, which grew from
about 5 percent of the total in 1955 to over
10 percent by 1972, will no longer be grow
ing. In fact, for 1980-85 their share is ex
pected to decline. However, it should be
pointed out that if future changes in social
security increase real benefits faster than
was assumed, broaden coverage, or make
other changes affecting payments, the slow
down would be moderated.
An additional consideration in examining
sources of income is contributions for social
insurance, which are subtracted from per
sonal income. These contributions were pro
jected separately for four programs: (1 )old
age and survivors’ disability insurance
(OASDHI), (2) unemployment insurance,
(3) State and local social insurance, and
(4) other Federal social insurance programs.
OASDHI is the largest of these four cate
gories. In 1971 it accounted for 67 percent
of total social insurance contributions. The
projections of contributions for OASDHI
show a large decline in the rate of increase
over past rates. From 1955 to 1968 they
grew at an average annual rate of 13.8
percent, but the projections imply a growth
rate of 7.5 percent from 1968 to 1985. The
reasons for this slowdown are embodied
within the Social Security Amendments of
1972 which served as the basis for the pro
jections. This legislation specifies wage base
levels and tax rates. The projections do not
attempt to predict the effects of future
changes in legislation but rather assume
that the current legislation will remain in
force. The growth provided for in the tax
rates and wage base falls far below past
rates of increase. An additional assumption
is that coverage will increase only very
27
Table 12. Personal income, sources and disposition, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Projected
Component
1955
1958
1959
1963
1968
1965
1971
1970
1972
1980
1985
Billions of current dollars
Personal income: sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C om pensation of em ployees .1.....
Governm ent transfers to persons
...
O ther sources 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Less: personal co ntributions for
social insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal income, d is p o s itio.n. . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Personal tax and nontax paym ents. ..
In te rest paid by c o n su m ers
...........
Personal transfers to foreig n ers
.....
Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Personal consum ption expenditures.
$ 3 1 0 .9
21 8 .6
16.1
81 .4
$ 3 6 1 .2
24 9.8
24.1
94.2
$ 3 8 3 .5
2 6 9 .4
24.9
97.1
$ 4 6 5 .5
32 6.0
33.0
118.3
$ 5 3 8 .9
377.6
37.2
137.5
$ 6 8 8 .9
4 0 0 .3
56.1
165.3
$ 8 0 8 .3
5 7 4.2
75.1
18 7.0
$ 8 6 3 .5
6 0 9.8
88.9
195.7
$ 9 3 9 .2
6 6 8 .6
98 .3
2 0 7 .0
$ 1 ,7 3 6 .5
1,195 .7
17 8.4
4 3 0 .8
$ 2 ,3 7 6 .9
1,6 5 5 .9
2 2 7 .6
584.0
5.2
31 0.9
35.5
4.7
.5
15.8
25 4 .4
6.9
361.2
42.3
5.9
.6
22 .3
290.1
7.9
38 3.5
46.2
6.5
.6
19.1
31 1.2
11.8
4 6 5.5
60 .9
9.1
.6
19.9
37 5 .0
13.4
53 8 .9
65.7
11.3
.7
28.4
4 3 2 .8
22 .8
6 8 8 .9
97 .9
14.3
.8
39.8
536.2
28 .0
8 0 8 .3
116.6
16.8
1.0
56.2
6 1 7 .6
30*9
8 6 3.5
117.5
17.7
1.0
60 .2
6 6 7.2
34.7
93 9 .2
142.2
19.7
1.0
49 .7
72 6 .5
68 .4
1,7 3 6 .5
2 6 9 .3
4 3 .9
.8
10 1.3
1,3 2 1 .2
90 .6
2 ,3 7 6 .9
3 9 7 .0
6 1 .6
.8
13 4.3
1,783.1
Percent distribution
Personal income: sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C om pensation of em ployees ......
1
G overnm ent transfers to persons
...
O ther sources 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Less: personal co ntributions for
social insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Personal income: disposition ............
..
Personal tax and nontax paym ents....
In te rest paid by co n su m ers
...........
Personal transfers to fo reig n ers
.....
Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Personal co nsum ption expenditures.
100.0
70.3
5.2
26.2
100.0
69 .2
6.7
26.1
10 0.0
70.4
6.5
25 .3
100.0
70.0
7.1
25.4
100.0
70 .0
6.9
25 .5
10 0.0
71.2
8.1
24 .0
100.0
71 .0
9.3
23.1
100.0
70.6
10.3
22.7
100.0
71 .2
10.5
22 .0
10 0.0
6 8 .9
10 .3
2 4 .8
100.0
69 .7
9.6
24 .6
1.7
10 0.0
11.4
1.5
.2
5.1
81 .8
1.9
100.0
11.7
1.6
.2
6.2
80 .3
2.1
10 0.0
12.0
1.7
.2
5.0
81.1
2.5
100.0
13.1
2.0
.1
4.3
80.6
2.5
10 0.0
12.2
2.1
.1
5.3
80 .3
3.3
100.0
14.2
2.1
.1
5.8
77.8
3.5
100.0
14.4
2.1
.1
7.0
76.4
3.6
10 0.0
13.6
2.0
.1
7.0
77 .3
3.7
100.0
15.1
2.1
.1
5.3
77 .4
3.9
100.0
15.5
2.5
3.8
10 0.0
16.7
2.6
( 3)
( 3 )
5.8
76 .2
5.7
75.0
Average annual rates of change 4
Projected
19 55 -68
.
Personal income: sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C om pensation of em ployees 1.....
Governm ent transfers to pers o n...
s
O ther sources 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Less: personal co ntributions for
social insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Personal income: d is p o s itio.n . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal tax and nontax paym ents....
Interest paid by co nsum ers
...........
Personal transfers to fo reigners
.....
Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Personal consum ption expenditures.
19 65 -72
1 9 72 -80
19 68 -85
19 68 -80
19 80 -85
6.3
6.4
10.1
5.6
8.3
8.5
14.9
6.0
8.0
7.5
7.7
9.6
7.6
7.4
8.6
7.7
8.0
7.7
10.1
8.3
6.5
6.7
5.0
6.3
12.1
6.3
8.1
8.9
3.7
7.4
5.9
14.6
8.3
11.7
8.3
5.2
8.3
7.7
8.9
8.0
8.3
10.5
-2 .8
9.3
7.8
8.5
7.6
8.6
9.0
9.6
8.0
8.8
9.8
5.8
6.5
8.1
^ 7.0
( 3 )
( 3 )
7.4
7.3
8.1
7.8
,
r b (3)
■
° -
5.8
6.2
4
Compound interest rates between term inal years.
1 Includes wages and salaries plus other labor income.
2 Includes proprietors’ income, rental incom e of persons, interest in
SOURCE: H istorical data from U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau
come, dividends, and business transfers to persons.
o f Econom ic Analysis; projection s by Bureau of Labor Statistics .
3 Less than .05 percent.
28
slowly from now until 1985.
The other three categories of social insur
ance contributions show less change from
their past rates than OASDHI. As would be
expected during a period of prolonged full
employment, the unemployment insurance
contribution rates paid by employers are
projected to decline and remain at a low
level. Contributions for State and local
government social insurance, which are pri
marily for employee retirement funds, show
a slightly decreased growth rate from past
levels in keeping with the moderate in
creases projected for State and local em
ployment. Similarly, other Federal social
insurance programs, consisting largely of
employees’ retirement systems and veter
ans’ life insurance, reflect the decreases
projected for Federal military and civilian
employment. As a whole, social insurance
contributions are projected to grow at an
average annual rate of 7.6 percent from
1968 to 1985, nearly 4 percentage points
below the 1955-68 rate of 11.8 percent. For
the 1980 to 1985 period they are projected
to increase at a rate of 4.9 percent, less
than the GNP growth rate.
Turning to the disposition of personal
income among consumption, savings, inter
est, and taxes, personal consumption ex
penditures— by far the most important of
these uses — follow very closely the growth
in personal income, both historically and in
the projected period. However, some income
uses are growing faster than consumption,
although the magnitude of consumption ex
penditures tends to disguise the fact that
their share of income is declining. Personal
taxes have increased significantly faster
than total personal income during 1955-68
and have represented a growing share of
income. As incomes rise, the progressive
nature of the Federal income tax causes
a greater than proportional increase in the
share going to taxes. However, in the 196880 period the tax reduction brought about
by the Tax Reform Act of 1969 and a slow
ing in the rate of growth in State and local
tax collections are expected to narrow the
difference. Over the 1980-85 period taxes
and personal income return to a relation
ship more like the one which prevailed
during 1955-68. The other income use which
has grown significantly faster than total
income is interest. The share of income go
ing to interest rose from 1.5 percent in
1955 to 2.1 percent by 1972 and is pro
jected to further expand to 2.6 percent by
1985.
Savings, unlike taxes and interest, have
on the whole taken a constant share of in
come over the years 1955 to 1972. The
savings rates projected through 1985 are
consistent with long-term historical experi
ence. Although studies on the causes of
changing savings rates have been far from
conclusive, most analysts have paid atten
tion to the roles of inflation and expecta
tions. 2 Findings tend to indicate that both
7
high inflation and pessimistic expectations
generated by high unemployment rates have
the effect of increasing savings. The un
usual combination of inflation and unem
ployment which occurred in 1970 and 1971
may have accounted for the unusually high
savings rate in those years. The employ
ment and inflation assumptions of the pro
jections a^ compatible with savings rates
closer to those before 1970.
Disposable personal income per capita,
in current prices, is projected to grow at a
markedly higher rate than in the past,
particularly over the 1968-80 period, re
flecting both an acceleration in real growth
and moderately higher prices. The level of
per capita disposable personal income rose
from $1,659 in 1955 to $3,816 in 1972
(table 13), and is projected to increase to
$6,547 in 1980 and $8,400 by 1985. In con
stant dollars of 1963 purchasing power, the
growth in per capita income is from $2,933
in 1972 to $4,428 in 1985, or a growth of
3.2 percent a year — a truer measure of
rising standards of living. However, this
rise — as is the case with other elements of
the projections — has an uneven pattern of
growth within the projected period, expand
ing 3.4 percent a year during 1968-80 and
slowing to 2.4 percent a year in 1980-85.
Gross saving and investment. The second
category of income is saving and invest27
See, for example, F. Thomas Juster and Paul
Wachtel, "Inflation and the Consumer,"BrookingsPapers
on Economic A ctivity: Issue 1: 1972, pp. 71-122.
29
Table 13. Disposable personal income per capita, 19 5 5 ,19 6 8 ,19 7 2 , and projected for 1980 and 1985
Average annual rates
of change 1
Protected
Item
1955
1968
Projected
1972
1980
1985
1955-68
1968-80
19 80 -85
Disposable personal incom e per capita
(cu rre n t d o lla rs.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$1 ,6 5 9
$ 2 ,9 4 5
$ 3 ,8 1 6
$6 ,54 7
$ 8 ,40 0
4.5
6.9
5.1
Disposable personal incom e per capita
(1 9 6 3 d o lla rs.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1,897
2,6 3 9
2 ,9 3 3
3,941
4,4 2 8
2.6
3.4
2.4
1 Compound interest rates between term in al years
SOURCE:
Comm erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis;
Historical data in current dollars from U.S. D epartm ent of
ment. Among the sources of funds for in
vestment— personal, business, or public
saving — the largest is business. This cate
gory is projected to follow the general pat
tern of most income items — a rate of
increase in 1968-80 appreciably above 195568, followed by a moderating in the rate of
growth in 1980-85 to one comparable to
the 1955-68 pace (table 14). The major fac
tor behind this expansion in the 1970’s is
the rapid rate of economic growth.
A large part of business saving consists
of capital consumption allowances, which
are a measure of the capital stock which is
used up in the production of the GNP. The
largest part of capital consumption allow
ances is depreciation, which reflects, among
other factors, Internal Revenue Service
regulations such as accelerated deprecia
tion allowances. In the Thurow macromodel,
corporate capital consumption allowances
are dependent on the stock of capital and
its age, while the noncorporate portion is
related primarily to the stock of housing.
As a whole, capital consumption allowances
are projected to grow at an average annual
rate of 7.5 percent from 1968 to 1985, at
the same rate as GNP. Although the over
all 1968-85 rate of growth of capital con
sumption allowances is the same as for
GNP, there is a much smaller decline in
the 1980 to 1985 period. The growth rate
for capital stock takes longer to reflect the
slower growth in the GNP.
Personal saving is not projected to accele
rate in the 1970’s in spite of the increased
rate of growth of income. The unusually
high savings rates of the late 1960’s and
early 1970’s are expected to return to rates
data in
1963 dollars an
iections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
nearer the long-term average by the mid1970’s.
Saving is used primarily for gross private
domestic investment. In the projections, the
1968-80 growth in investment is appreciably
higher than in 1955-68—8.5 percent com
pared with 4.9 percent (both in current
prices) (table 14). This difference in the
projected growth is due to a rise in the
prices of investment goods, an expansion in
the rate of real growth in nonresidential
investment, and a large increase in the
rate of residential construction.
Government revenues and expenditures.
Government revenues and expenditures (on
a national income accounts basis) is the
comprehensive account for government
transactions. Revenues include personal
taxes, corporate profits taxes, indirect busi
ness taxes, and contributions for social
insurance. The expenditures account in
cludes, in addition to purchases of goods
and services, transfer payments, interest
payments, subsidies, current outlays of gov
ernment enterprises, and land acquisition.
The major factors affecting government
revenues and expenditures, in addition to
the changing growth pattern of real GNP
in the projected period, are tax receipts,
defense expenditures, and the changing
demographic composition of the population.
In total, Federal revenues are projected
to grow slightly faster than expenditures.
From 1972 to 1980, revenues are projected
to grow at an average annual rate of 7.9
percent while expenditures will grow at
7.4 percent (table 15). During 1980-85
Federal revenues are projected to advance
30
Table 14. Gross saving and investment, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Projected
Component
1955
1958
1959
1963
1965
1968
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
Billions of current dollars
Gross saving !. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Business saving 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Government surplus or d e fic it ( -...
)
Other 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66.9
15.8
46.3
2.7
2.1
60.7
22 .3
49 .4
- 1 2 .5
1.6
73.0
19.1
56.8
-2 .1
-.8
90 .2
19.9
6 8 .8
1.8
-.3
112.2
28 .4
84 .7
2.2
-3 .1
125.6
39 .8
95 .4
-6 .8
-2 .7
13 7.6
56.2
97 .0
-1 0 .1
- 5.5
151.1
60 .2
111.4
- 1 8 .1
- 2.3
170.6
47.7
12 4.8
-2 .8
-1 .1
34 0.2
10 1.3
25 1 .6
-1 3 .8
1.0
45 2.8
134.3
33 1 .2
-1 3 .4
.7
Gross inv estm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gross private dom estic investm ent...
Net foreign in v estm en.................
t
66.9
67.4
-.5
60.7
60 .9
-.2
73.0
75 .3
-2 .3
90 .2
87.1
3.1
11 2.2
108.1
4.1
125.6
126.0
- .4
137.6
136.3
1.3
151.1
15 3.2
- 2.1
170.6
17 8.3
- 7.6
34 0.2
3 3 4.6
5.6
45 2 .8
4 4 5.3
7.5
Percent distribution
Gross saving 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Business saving 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Government surplus or d e ficit ( -...
)
O ther 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
100.0
23.6
69.2
4.0
3.1
100.0
36.7
81 .4
- 2 0 .6
2.6
100.0
26.2
77 .8
-2 .9
-1 .1
100.0
22.1
76 .3
2.0
-.3
100.0
2 5 .3
75 .5
2.0
-2 .8
100.0
31.7
76.0
-7 .8
- 2.1
10 0.0
40 .8
70.5
-1 2 .0
-4 .0
100.0
3 9 .8
73.7
-1 .6
1.5
100.0
29.1
73.2
- 1.6
- .6
100.0
29 .8
74 .0
- 4.1
.3
100.0
29.7
73.1
-3 .0
.2
Gross investm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t...
N et foreign in v estm en.................
t
100.0
100.7
- .7
100.0
100.3
' - .3
100.0
103.2
-3 .2
100.0
96 .6
3.4
100.0
96 .3
3.7
10 0.0
100.3
-.3
100.0
99.1
.9
100.0
101.4
- 1.4
10 0.0
104.5
-4 .5
100.0
98 .4
1.6
100.0
98.3
1.7
Average annual rates of change 4
Projected
1955-68
1 9 65 -72
19 72 -80
19 68 -85
1968-80
1980-85
Gross saving 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal saving. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Business saving 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.0
7.4
5.7
6.2
8.3
5.7
9.0
9.3
9.2
7.8
7.4
7.6
8.7
8.1
8.4
5.9
5.8
5.7
Gross investm en t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t...
N et foreign inv estm ent
.................
5.0
4.9
1 7
6.2
7.4
9.0
8.2
7.8
7.7
8.7
85
( 5)
( 5)
( 5)
( 5)
5.9
5.9
6.0
1 Gross saving has been adjusted for the statistical discrepancy.
4 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
2 Include undistributed co rporate profits, corporate inventoryvaluation
5 Not calculated because of change in sign.
ad justm ent and co rporate and noncorporate capital consum ption allowances.
3 Includes capital grants received by th e United States, wage accruals SOURCE: Historical data from the U.S. D epa rtm ent of Comm erce, Bu
reau of Economic Analysis: projection s by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
less disbursem ents, and the statistical discrepancy.
In spite of the fact that revenues are
projected to grow faster than expenditures,
there will still be a $4.5 billion deficit in
1985. Thus, even with a slowing in the
rates of growth of all components of Federal
expenditures, present tax laws do not gener
ate enough Federal revenues to keep the
budget in balance or produce a surplus
under full-employment conditions.
A look at the composition of Federal
revenues (table 15) shows a somewhat dif-
6.3 percent annually while expenditures
grow at 5.9 percent. The projections of
personal and corporate income taxes were
adjusted for the estimated effects of the
provisions of the Tax Reform Act of 1969,2
8
but do not assume any major changes in
present tax laws.
28
In 1985, this adjustment accounts for a reduction
of $24.6 billion in revenues.
31
Table 15.
Federal Government revenues and expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
(National income accounts basis)
Pro] ected
Category
1955
1958
1959
1963
1965
1968
1971
1972
1980
1985
$1 98 .9 $ 2 .2 8 .7
1 0 7 .9
89.9
37 .8
33.3
$ 4 2 1 .0
19 5.8
86 .5
$ 5 7 0 .0
289 0
112.1
1970
Billions of c u . rent dollars
R ev en u e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ts
....
C orporate p ro fits taxes................
.
Ind ire ct business tax and
nontax re c e ip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C ontributions fo r social insurance....
$72.1
31 .4
20 .6
$7 8.7
36.8
18.0
$8 9 .7
39.9
22.5
$ 1 14 .5
51.5
24.6
$ 1 24 .7
53.8
29.3
$ 1 7 5 .0
79.7
36.7
$ 1 9 2 .0
92 .2
31 .0
10.7
9.3
11.5
12.4
12.5
14.8
15.3
23.1
16.5
2 5 .1
18.0
40.7
19.3
4 9 .5
20.4
55.2
19.9
‘ 63 .0
30 .2
10 8.6
36 .5
13 2.3
E xp enditu res . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
....
Purchases of goods and services
T ran sfer paym ents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Grants-in-aid to S tate and local
.
go v ern m e n ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Net interest p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
O ther 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
68.1
44.1
14.5
88.9
53.6
21.3
91 .0
53.7
21.9
113.9
64.2
29.1
123.5
66 .9
32.5
18 1.5
98 .8
48.2
2 0 3 .9
96 .2
6 3 .2
22 1.0
98.1
74.9
2 4 4 .6
104.4
8 2 .9
4 3 1.7
166.6
149.7
57 4 .5
2 1 8 .5
191.9
3.1
4.9
1.5
5.6
5.6
2.7
6.8
6.4
2.1
9.1
7.7
3.6
11.1
8.7
4.3
18.7
11.7
4.1
24 .4
14.6
5.5
29.1
13.6
5.4
37.7
13.5
6.1
90 .2
18.1
7.0
1 3 7.5
18.7
8.0
4.0
- 10.2
- 1.2
.7
1.2
- 6.5
-1 1 .9
- 22.2
- 15.9
- 10.6
- 4.5
Federal surplus or d e fic it ( - .............
)
Percent dis tribution
R ev enue s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ts
....
Corporate profits tax es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
In d ire ct business tax and
nontax re c e ip ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C ontributions for social in s u ran c e....
100.0
43 .6
28 .6
100.0
46 .8
22 .9
10 0.0
44.5
25.1
10 0.0
45.0
21 .5
100.0
43.1
23 .5
100.0
45.5
21 .0
10 0.0
48 .0
16.1
100.0
45.2
16.7
10 0.0
47 .2
16.5
10 0.0
4 6 .5
20 .5
100.0
50.7
19.7
14.8
12.9
14.6
15.8
13.9
16.5
13.4
20 .2
13.2
20.1
10.3
23 .3
10.1
2 5 .8
10.3
27 .8
8.7
2 7 .5
7.2
2 5 .8
6.4
23 .2
Exp enditu res. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
....
Purchases of goods and services
Tran sfer paym ents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Grants-in-aid to S tate and local
100.0
64.8
21 .3
100.0
60 .3
24.0
10 0.0
59.0
24.1
100.0
56.4
25 .5
100.0
54.2
26.3
10 0.0
54.4
26.6
10 0.0
47.2
31 .0
100.0
44.4
33.9
10 0.0
42.7
33 .9
1 0 0.0
3 8 .6
34.7
100.0
38.0
33 .4
4.6
7.2
2.2
6.3
6.3
3.0
7.5
7.0
2.3
8.0
6.8
3.2
9.0
7.0
3.5
10.3
6.4
2.3
12.0
7.2
2.7
13.2
6.2
2.4
15.4
5.5
2.5
2 0 .9
4.2
1.6
23 .9
3.3
1.4
g o ve rn m e n ts........................................
.
N et interest p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
O ther i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Average annual rates of change 2
Projected
19 55 -68
R ev enue s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ts
....
Corporate profits taxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Indirect business tax and
nontax rec eip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C ontributions for social in s u ra n c e ....
E xpenditures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Purchases of goods and services
....
T ran sfer paym ents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Grants-in-aid to S tate and local
g ov ernm e nts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
N et interest pa id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
O ther 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19 65 -72
19 72 -80
1 9 68 -85
19 68 -80
7.1
7.4
4.5
9.1
10.5
3.7
7.9
7.7
10.9
7.2
7.9
6.8
7.6
7.8
7.4
6.3
8.1
5.3
4.1
12.0
2.7
14.1
5.4
7.0
4.3
7.2
4.4
8.5
3.9
4.0
7.8
6.4
9.7
10.3
6.6
14.3
7.4
6.1
7.7
7.0
4.8
8.5
7.5
4.5
9.9
5.9
5.6
5.1
14.8
6.9
8.0
19.1
6.5
5.1
11.5
3.7
1.7
12.5
2.8
4.0
14.0
3.7
4.6
8.8
.6
2.7
19 80 -85
Includes subsidies less current surplus of governm ent enterprises
S O U R C E: Historical data from U .S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
plus a sm all am ount of wage accruals less disbursem ents in 1971 and 1972. Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
32
with different factors influencing each
component.
Federal purchases of goods and services
increased by about 6.5 percent a year dur
ing 1955-72. They are projected to slow to
an increase of 6.1 percent a year during
1972-80 and to 5.6 percent during 1980-85,
as expenditures on defense and the space
program decline from their earlier high rates
of growth. The proportion of Federal ex
penditures going for purchases of goods and
services declined from 65 percent in 1955
to 43 percent by 1972 and is projected to
decline to 38 percent in 1985 (chart 4 )•
The two major expenditure categories of
grants-in-aid and transfer payments have
been sources of very rapid growth in recent
years. Between 1965 and 1972 grants-in-aid
to State and local governments grew at a
rate of 19 percent annually. Their growth
is projected to slow down considerably after
1972, 11.5 percent annually from 1972 to
1980. The 14.0 percent growth rate shown
from 1968 to 1980 is influenced by the very
rapid increase between 1968 and 1972.
Therefore, the apparent sharp drop after
1980 is an overstatement. Comparing 197280 with 1980-85, the slowdown is from 11.5
percent to 8.8 percent on an annual basis.
This slowdown in grants-in-aid reflects the
somewhat better financial position of State
and local governments and the inevitable
slowing in a category after an initial rapid
growth phase. (If grants-in-aid were to
grow during 1972-85 at the 19 percent a
year pace of 1965-72, they would equal
$362 billion, or almost two-thirds of ex
pected Federal revenue by 1985.)
The other major source of growth in Fed
eral expenditures has been transfer pay
ments. In 1972, transfer payments (suchas
social security and welfare payments) and
net interest accounted for nearly 40 percent
of Federal expenditures, and had increased
at an annual rate of 12.9 percent since
1965. A much sharper slowdown is pro
jected for transfer payments and net interest
than for grants. The important factor in the
past growth of transfer payments, not ex
pected to be a factor in the future, was
growth in the population covered. From
1975 to 1985 the growth in transfer pay
ments was assumed to be equal to the sum
ferent pattern for the projected period
(1972-85) than in the past. In the 1955-72
period, social insurance contributions far
outpaced other Federal revenues in their
rates of growth. As a result, during this
period social insurance contributions in
creased from 13 percent of total Federal
revenues to over 27 percent by 1972. How
ever, in the 1972-80 period they are pro
jected to increase at a somewhat slower rate
than total Federal revenues and thus will
decline as a percent of the total. In the
1980-85 period the difference is even more
pronounced. The slowdown reflects the fact
that social insurance contributions are not
progressive and, unless rate changes are
made, they will increase at a slower rate
than income tax revenues, which are
progressive.
The increasing share of revenue sin 195572 coming from social insurance contribu
tions offsets declines in the share repre
senting corporate profits taxes and indirect
business taxes. Indirect business taxes in
1972-85 are projected to continue to decline
as a share of Federal revenues, since they
are not progressive. On the other hand,
personal income taxes in the 1972-85 period
represent a larger share of Federal revenues
because they have a progressive rate struc
ture. The projections of corporate profits
taxes are consistent with their historical
share of Federal revenues.
Total Federal expenditures are projected
to be $431.7 billion in 1980 and $574.5 bil
lion in 1985 (in current dollars), with the
1985 level more than double the 1972 level
of $244.6 billion (table 15). Total Federal
Government expenditures are less volatile
than expenditures for goods and services
alone, a component which is strongly in
fluenced by the military budget. A sizable
slowdown is expected in the growth of Fed
eral expenditures. After increasing at an
average annual rate of 10.3 percent from
1965 to 1972, Federal expenditures are
projected to slow to an increase of 7.5 per
cent of a year from 1968 to 1980, 7.4
percent from 1972 to 1980 and 5.9 percent
in 1980-85. This slowdown in Federal ex
penditures reflects a general decrease in
the growth of each of the major components,
33
C h art 4
Federal Government Expenditures, Selected Years 1 9 5 5 -7 2 and
Projected for 1980 and 19 85
Percent d istrib u tio n
T*-7-rT —
S K®
SS
Other
Percent
100
'jy jg g ife i'^ '.r g y
mm
Net interest paid
Grants-in-aid to State
and local governments
’ * ?w
T ;-V •* :* s*
ISP
1111
<r
z
l
BsaagSTss
SSis*
&ftS :
<j&T
g S
tfg$L
g 5 HgpH
^ ;s
M
sB$£!
S g ®M
iS S
*;
:*
j.
r
90
V
wmm
— 80
^S ;
5M
i i l t ?v& 3
:§ #S
Transfer payments
70
60
:iW
r
■ -p
:V
■'S;:
SfesS
S oJ'
IJ§
5 if
50
"A V ^’ciy- ivjy'!£i;%
t
40
Purchases o f goods
and services
^l-.1.v .tt'
•v r
'T
y,,^yyV'-''
W0M
30
, '
i| ' ■■■ j
>
’
’.'-i/VJ'ivv20
—
1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985
34
10
of the rates of increase in prices (the per
sonal consumption expenditures deflator)
and in the number of persons over 62 years
of age, both of which were projected to be
growing at a slower rate than in recent
experience. The implicit assumption is that
Federal transfers will keep up with inflation
and with the growth in the number of re
cipients, but that no major new programs
will be begun.
Turning next to State and local govern
ment revenues and expenditures (table 16),
they are projected to increase as they have
in the past, at faster rates than GNP and
Federal Government revenues and expendi
tures. As a consequence of this rapid
growth, State and local revenues and ex
penditures, which were less than one-half
the Federal level in 1955, by 1985 are pro
jected to be about 90 percent of the level of
the Federal government. State and local
government revenues and expenditures are
projected (endogenously in the macromodel)
and are affected by the growth of GNP and
the continued growth of grants-in-aid, but
also reflect a projected decline in school
enrollees as a share of the population. Thus,
even though the growth in GNP would con
tinue to spur State and local government
expenditures, their growth is projected to
taper off from recent rates because of the
slowdown in school enrollments and the
slower expansion in Federal grants to State
and local governments. State and local ex
penditure growth is expected to decline
from an annual rate of 11.9 percent between
1965 and 1972 to 10.1 percent from 1972
to 1980. As a result of the assumed slow
down for grants-in-aid and slower growth in
GNP after 1980, the growth rate of State
and local expenditures falls to 7.8 percent
a year in current dollars between 1980 and
1985.
State and local expenditures and reve
nues have remained quite close to one
another in the past (1972 and 1973 being
notable exceptions). This is primarily due
to the statutory restrictions against State
and local borrowing to finance current ex
penditures which constrain many of these
governments. In the projections it was
assumed initially, therefore, that State and
local revenues were equal to expenditures.
This was accomplished by lowering the
personal tax projections by the difference
between total expenditures and the sum
of the five revenue categories projected by
the model. By so doing, the rate of increase
in State and local tax rates was dampened.
The tendency for the personal income tax
equation to overpredict revenues made this
procedure the most realistic means of main
taining a balance between expenditures and
receipts.2
9
As noted, total State and local govern
ment revenues have increased in the past
at rates closely paralleling expenditures.
For example, in the 1955-68 period the
expansion of these revenues was at 9.9
percent a year compared with 9.6 percent
each year for expenditures (table 16). The
projections of State and local revenues also
closely parallel those for expenditures. Thus,
the growth during 1968-80 at 10.4 percent
a year is significantly faster than the 7. 7
percent a year pace of 1980-85, the slow
down reflecting both the slower GNP growth
and a projected slowing of Federal grantsin-aid (an important State and local govern
ment revenue source).
Within total State and local revenues, im
portant shifts have been taking place and
are projected to continue. Personal income
taxes and Federal grants-in-aid increased as
a percent of total State and local revenues
during 1955-72 — and the projections contin
ue that increase (chart 5). At the same
time indirect business taxes (largely sales
and property taxes), lacking progressivity,
do not increase as fast as other State and
local revenues and thus constitute a declin
ing share of revenues (from 68 percent in
1955 to a projected 42 percent by 1985).
2
9 The small deficits for State and local governments
shown in table 16 are the result of distributing a part of
the residual supply-demand gap in the Thurow model to
State and local government purchases. The personal in
come tax equation predicts large increases in State and
local income tax collections because, during the period of
its fit, 1947-71, many States were adding income taxes
for the first time or were increasing rates from nominally
low rates (1 or 2 percent) to 2-4 percent. Therefore,
implicitly, the model is picking up a relationship between
income changes and State and local tax rates which
clearly cannot continue into the future. This equation, if
unconstrained, would show State and local personal tax
revenues in 1985 approaching Federal revenues in magni
tude.
35
Table 16.
State and local revenues and expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected tor 1980 and 1985
Projected
Category
1958
1955
1959
1963
1965
1968
1971
1972
1980
$ 1 5 2 .3 $ 1 7 7 .2
27J
34 .3
4.1
4.9
$ 3 4 9 .8
73 .5
9.1
$ 5 0 5 .8
10 8 .0
14.6
1970
1985
Billions of current dollars
R e v en u e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ...
ts
Corporate profits taxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
In d ire ct business tax and nontax
rec eip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Contributions fo r social insurance....
Federal gran ts-in-aid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
$3 1 .4
4.1
1.0
$4 1.6
5.5
1.0
$4 6 .0
6.3
1.2
$ 6 3 .4
9.4
1.7
$ 7 5 .5
11.8
2.1
$1 07 .1
18.3
3.2
$ 1 3 5 .0
24 .4
3.8
21 .4
1.8
3.1
27 .0
2.5
5.6
28 .9
2.7
6.8
39 .4
3.8
9.1
45 .9
4.5
11.1
60 .6
6.4
18.7
74.1
8.3
24 .4
82 .0
9.4
29.1
89 .6
10.7
37.7
156.4
20.7
90 .2
2 1 3 .9
31 .8
13 7.5
Exp enditu res . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
.....
Purchases of goods and services
Transfers paym ents to pers o n......
s
N et interest p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Less: cu rrent surplus of governm ent
en terprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
32.7
30.1
3.7
.5
44 .0
40 .6
4.6
.6
46 .8
43 .3
4.8
.7
62 .2
58.2
6.0
.8
74 .5
70.2
6.9
.5
107.5
100.8
10.0
(2 )
133.2
12 3.3
14.1
-.4
' 14 8.3
136.2
16.6
-.2
' 1 6 4.0
15 0.5
18.2
-.4
3 5 3.0
32 6.0
31 .0
.5
51 4.7
4 8 0 .8
38 .2
.7
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.8
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.1
4 .4
4.5
4.9
-2 .3
- .8
1.2
1.0
.3
1.8
4.0
13.1
-3 .2
-
Surplus or d e fic it (— ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-
1.3
-
8.9
Percent dis tribution
R e v en u e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ts. .
..
Corporate profits tax es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ind ire ct business tax and nontax
receip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C ontributions fo r social in s u ran c e....
Federal gran ts-in-aid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
100.0
13.1
3.1
foo.o
13.4
2.4
10 0.0
13.7
2.7
100.0
14.8
2.7
100.0
15.7
2.7
100.0
17.1
2.9
10 0.0
18.1
2.8
10 0 .0
18.2
2.7
10 0.0
19.4
2.7
100.0
2 1 .0
2.6
1 0 0.0
21 .4
2.9
68.1
5.8
9.9
64.7
6.0
13.5
62 .9
5.9
14.8
62.1
6.0
14.4
60 .9
5.9
14.7
56.6
6.0
17.4
54.9
6.1
18.1
53.8
6.2
19.1
50 .6
6 .0
2 1 .3
44.7
5.9
25 .8
42 .3
6.3
27 .2
Exp enditu res. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Purchases of goods and services
.....
Tran sfers paym ents to pers o n......
s
100.0
92.2
11.2
1.4
100.0
92 .2
10.4
1.4
100.0
92 .6
10.3
1.5
10 0.0
93 .6
9.7
1.2
100.0
94 .2
9.2
.7
100.0
93 .8
9.3
—
10 0.0
92 .6
10.6
-.3
100.0
91 .9
11.2
- 1
1 0 0.0
91 .8
11.1
-.3
100.0
9 2 .4
8.8
.1
10 0.0
93 .4
7.4
.1
4.8
4.0
4.3
4.6
4.0
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.7
1.3
1.0
N et in te re s t p a id ....................................
Less: cu rre nt surplus of governm ent
en terprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Average annual rates of c h a n g e 3
Projected
1955-68
R e v en u e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal tax and nontax re c e ip ...
ts
C orporate profits tax es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
In d ire ct business tax and nontax
receip ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Contributions fo r social insurance....
Federal gran ts-in-aid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Exp enditu res. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Purchases of goods and services
.....
Transfers paym ents to pers o n......
s
N et interest p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Less: cu rrent surplus of governm ent
en terprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1965-72
19 72 -80
19 68 -85
1 9 68 -80
19 80 -85
9.90
12.17
9.5 0
12.97
16.40
13 .09
8.88
10.00
8.16
9.5 6
11.02
9.44
10.36
12 .30
9.2 4
7.6 5
8.00
9.92
8.34
10 .23
14.76
10 .02
13 .23
19 .04
7.21
8.59
11 .5 3
7.7 0
9.87
12.46
8.2 2
10 .25
14 .02
6.46
8.97
8.8 0
9.59
9.74
8.07
-17.41
11.92
11.52
14 .89
10.05
10 .14
6.88
( 4 )
( 4 )
9.6 5
9.6 3
8.1 9
18.51
10.42
10 .28
9.87
23 .6 9
7.83
8.0 8
4.27
6.96
6.12
5.62
2.2 0
2.40
1.72
.22
1 D etail does not include wage accruals less disbursem ents.
2 Less than $ 5 0 m illion.
3 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
Not ca,culatec*SOURCE: H istorical data fro m U.S. D ep a rtm en t
of Economic Analysis; projection s by Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
36
C h art 5.
State and Local Government Revenues, Selected Years 1 9 5 5 -7 2 and
Projected for 1 9 8 0 and 1985
Percent d istribution
Percent
100
Personal tax and
nontax receipts
Corporate profits taxes
Indirect business tax
and nontax receipts
C ontributions fo r
social insurance
W
Federal grants-in-aid
§m
1 ’ i l l 8j
B
W
0
4
s
s
10
|8
S
H a w Mmmmmwmmm
....
1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985
37
Table 1 7 . Price changes, GNP and major components, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85
Average annual rates of change 1
Component
Projected
19 55 -68
Gross national pro d u c t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal c o n s u m p tio .n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N onresldentlal in v estm en t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Residential in v e s tm e n. t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Exp orts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal purchases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
S tate and local p u rc h ase s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total private e c o n o m y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
1.9
2.4
2.6
1.2
.5
2.9
4.0
2.0
19 65 -72
1972-80
1968-85
19 68 -80
19 80 -85
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.6
3.2
3.7
5.8
5.8
3.7
3.2
3.1
2.6
3.3
1.1
.8
2.8
4.3
3.0
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.6
2.0
2.2
4.1
4.7
3.2
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.8
2.1
2.3
4.4
4.9
3.4
3.0
2.7
2.6
3.1
1.9
1.9
3.3
4.3
2.8
1 Compound interest rates between term in al years.
SOURCE: Historical data from U S. D epartm ent of Com m erc
of Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For State and local governments, the
goods and services component of expendi
tures represents well over 90 percent.
Therefore, the growth rate of purchases
tends to be almost identical to that of total
State and local expenditures. State and
local transfer payments represented a de
clining share of expenditures over the 195565 period. After that, an increase in their
growth rate relative to total expenditures
took place, reversing the decline in their
relative share. State and local government
transfers to persons are dominated by Medi
caid and welfare programs. These transfers
have experienced very rapid growth in re
cent years, largely due to increasing num
bers of recipients. For example, between
1967 and 1970 the number of families
under the Aid to Families with Dependent
Children program doubled, from 1.3 to 2.6
million, accounting for nearly all of the
growth in program benefits. This source of
rapid growth is expected to taper off after
1975, when the number of recipients will
have stabilized as a percent of the popula
tion. These expectations are based on
natural limits in the programs as well as
the effects of prolonged high employment
rates. As was the case with Federal trans
fer payments, assuming no significant new
programs, the growth rate of State and
local transfers is assumed to equal the sum
of the population growth rate and the rate
of increase in prices (as reflected by the
personal consumption expenditures defla
tor) from 1975 to 1985.
Prices
The macromodel used in developing these
projections yields a combination of currentand constant-dollar GNP projections. A set
of deflators is required in order to convert
the current dollars from the income sector
for use in the demand and supply sectors.
The model uses deflators for the major
components of demand GNP and for private
GNP. For the purposes of these projections,
the constant-dollar estimates are the crucial
ones since they are the basis for the final
demand estimates subsequently used in the
input-output system. Nevertheless, a brief
discussion of the price projections may be
useful. The private GNP deflator was pro
jected exogenously and the model generates
the component deflators on the basis of the
private sector projections. 3
0
GNP price projections. The private sector
inflation rate is projected to stabilize at
2.8 percent a year after 1975, with the
price increase for the total economy sta
bilizing at 3.0 percent (table 17). These
rates are well above those of the 1955 to
1968 period, but below the 1965 to 1972
period. Thus, the projected rates of price
30 While the overall GNP deflator is set by assump
tion, the deflators for major demand components con
sistent with the overall deflator are developed using an
extension of the macromodel developed by Richard Barth.
See "T h e Development of Wage and Price Relationships
for a Long-Term Econometric Model.” Survey of Current
Business, August 1972, pp. 15-20.
38
increase are consistent with the belief that
recent inflation levels have consisted of
both temporary cyclical effects and some
more permanent effects which will persist
in the projection period. The private sector
deflators show relative growth rates con
sistent with past experience, although the
variation is slightly less, relative to the
private GNP deflator. The government defla
tors are also generally consistent with past
experience, except for the low growth of the
Federal purchases deflator from a 1972
base. This distorts the long-term Federal
deflator projections because of the very
large increase in the Federal deflator from
1971 to 1972.
lower the share of real personal consump
tion expenditures. This comes about as a
result of offsetting changes. First, personal
income falls as a percentage of current-dollar GNP as inflation rates increase. Also,
the influence of progressive tax rates causes
disposable personal income as a percent of
GNP to fall even further. The second change,
which nearly offsets the first, is that the
PCE deflator moves less than proportionate
ly to the private GNP deflator. The net
result of moving from a 2.8-percent to a
4.0-percent inflation assumption is to lower
the real share of personal consumption
expenditures by 0.3 percent. When interest
rates are allowed to change with the alter
native inflation assumptions, the effects on
personal consumption expenditures are nul
lified. However, the changes in interest rates
affect residential construction. For example,
in moving from 2.8 to 4.0-percent inflation
(with the interest rate increased also), the
residential investment share of real GNP is
reduced by 0.4 percent.
Thus, the results of the analysis indicate
that, within the somewhat narrow range of
price assumptions tested here, no appreci
able change in the distribution of real
demand GNP results. This follows because
the price deflators for the components of
GNP tend to maintain their position rela
tive to the total GNP deflator. However, it
should be pointed out that the price model
used may, by and large, be linear so that
within almost all ranges of prices used this
same conclusion would result. It would seem
Alternative price assumptions. Because of
real uncertainty attached to any longrun
price projections, several test runs of the
macromodel were made in order to estimate
the effect of different rates of inflation on
the 1985 distribution of the demand GNP
components (in real terms). The procedure
used was to enter longrun private GNP
inflation rates of 2.5 and 4.0 percent and
compare the projections to those based on
the basic 2.8-percent rate. In each run the
demand component deflators corresponding
to the alternative inflation rates were
derived within the model by equations link
ing them with the private GNP deflators.
In addition, various exogenous variables
which are related to the level of inflation,
such as government compensation rates,
transfer payments, and the social security
wage base, were adjusted to be consistent
to be a reasonable question as to how close
with the new inflation levels. The relation
ship between interest rates and inflation
levels is not clear and has not been quanti
fied. In order to determine possible effects
of interest-rate change, each inflation level
was run under two interest-rate assumptions
(1) interest rates unchanged from the basic
model, and (2) interest rates changed by
the same amount as the rate of inflation.
The results of the runs on alternative
rates of inflation showed that the level of
inflation within the ranges tested has only
a very slight effect upon the distribution of
the demand components of real GNP. When
interest rates are held constant, the only
significant effect of higher inflation is to
to reality this may actually be. Also, these
tests did not explore the impact on prices
of changes below the major component level.
This could also be an important factor which
could influence the structure of real GNP.
An additional test of the price assump
tion entailed using the endogenous part of
the price-wage model to derive the overall
GNP deflator rather than setting it by
assumption. Here the concern is whether a
4-percent unemployment rate and the 3percent rise in the deflator are consistent.
Tests with this portion of the macromodel
indicated that it was not so much the level
of unemployment that affects prices as the
speed at which a specified unemployment
39
rate is approached. Thus, a gradual decline
in the unemployment rate to 4 percent is
not incompatible with a 3-percent rate of
price increase. In fact, the model derived
an appreciably lower rate of price change.
However, the 3-percent rate of price in
crease may not be compatible with substan
tial cyclical changes in the unemployment
rate. This is a subject requiring further
investigation.
sonal consumption expenditures (PCE), the
largest category of demand GNP, is defined
as the measure of the market value of
goods and services purchased by individuals
and nonprofit institutions and the imputed
value of goods and services received as
income in kind.3 PCE accounts for nearly
1
two-thirds of constant-dollar GNP.
Historically, real PCE has grown slightly
faster than GNP, but more slowly than per
sonal income (because of increases in the
share of income going to interest and taxes),
one of its primary determinants. The pat
tern of projected PCE growth is similar to
that of the total economy (table 18). After
1980, PCE growth falls to 3.3 percent
annually (1963 dollars) from its 4.3 per
cent rate from 1968 to 1980. It should be
emphasized here that the slowdown pro
jected for PCE and GNP growth after 1980
does not represent an assumed recession.
The full-employment assumption is main
tained throughout the projection period and
the pattern of PCE growth for the economy
results from the slowdown in labor force
growth and the resulting slowdown in GNP
and disposable personal income.
However, from 1972 to 1980, PCE shows
about the same rate of growth as GNP.
PCE is not increasing at a faster rate than
GNP primarily because of the recovery in
investment and the net export position over
this period and the already high level of
PCE in 1972. On the other hand, by 1980,
PCE is again growing at, or slightly above,
the GNP rate.3
2
The prices of consumer goods and ser
vices have, historically, increased less than
total GNP prices. This behavior is pro-
Demand GNP
In chapter 1 the projected growth in real
GNP during 1968-80 and 1980-85 were
discussed. In an earlier section of this chap
ter the growth in income for the same time
periods was analyzed. These two factors,
overall growth in the economy and relative
growth of income components, are basic
determinants of the relative growth in de
mand GNP and its composition. The discus
sion in this section will concentrate on
changes in major demand components. A
discussion of the detailed changes in distri
bution within each demand category is con
tained in chapter 3.
The demand approach to determining
the gross national product consists of the
measurement of income at the point of ex
penditures rather than as it is earned.
Demand GNP is commonly broken down
into four major categories of expenditures.
These are (1) personal consumption ex
penditures, (2) gross private domestic
investment, (3) net exports of goods and
services, and (4) government purchases of
goods and services. The demand sector of
the macroeconometric model provides esti
mates of these categories in constant dol
lars. (Table 18 shows the components of
demand GNP in 1963 dollars for selected
historical years and as projected for 1980
and 1985.) Most of the discussion in this
section is in terms of constant dollars, since
these are the basic projections and repre
sent changes in real production from the
economic resources available, net of infla
tion. However, a corresponding table on the
current-dollar components of GNP is pro
vided in appendix B (table B-3).
311mputed items include the space-rental value of
owner-occupied houses; clothing and housing furnished
in kind to government, military, and business employees;
fuel and food produced and consumed on farms; and ser
vices received from financial institutions, excluding insur
ance received without explicit charge.
3
2It should be emphasized again that, for the
purpose of comparing historical trends and long-term
projections, 1968 is a more appropriate base than 1972
since 1968 is more comparable to the full-employment
assumptions for the projected years. Measurement from
comparable points in the business cycle gives the best
indication of long-term trends; the 1972 to 1980 period,
for example, has more of the characteristics of a re
covery period.
Personal consumption expenditures. Per
40
Table 18. GNP and major demand components, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 198b
Proiected
Component
1955
1958
1959
1963'
1965
1968
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
Billions of 1963 dollars
Gross national p ro d u c t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal consum ption e x p en d itu res.
Gross private dom estic investm en t...
Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n re s id e n tia.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Change in business in v e n to rie s ...
Net exports of goods and services
...
S p o r t s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Governm ent purchases of goods
and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal G o v e rn m en t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tate and local governm ent
......
$468.7 $479.1
291.2 30 7.3
78.7
64.1
72.8
65.5
45.8
43.3
27.0
22.2
5.9 - 1 . 4
2.4
3.4
21.1
23.2
17.7
20 .8
95.3
54.7
40.7
10 5.3
57.6
47.7
$ 5 0 9 .5
32 6.2
76.6
72.3
45 .8
26.5
4.4
.4
24.0
23.6
590.4
375.5
85 .8
80.5
53.9
26.6
5.3
5.8
32.5
26 .6
$ 6 6 1 .8
4 2 3.2
102.4
94.1
68 .5
25.6
8.3
6.5
37.9
31.4
$ 7 5 9 .2
4 8 1 .8
10 9.3
10 3.4
78.4
25 .0
5.9
1.3
46 .2
4 4 .9
$7 76 .1
50 8 .0
107.4
10 3 .8
79 .9
23 .8
3.6
2.6
52 .8
50 .2
$ 8 0 0 .4
5 2 7.6
114.7
10 9.8
78.7
31.2
4.9
.7
53 .3
52 .6
$ 8 4 8 .9
5 5 9.6
128.0
123.8
86 .5
37.3
4.2
- 1.6
57 .0
58 .6
$ 1 ,2 2 8 .2
79 9.9
192.7
181.9
141.0
40 .8
10.8
6.3
104.5
98.2
$ 1 ,4 4 1 .5
94 1 .9
22 4 .2
21 3 .8
165.4
48 .4
10.4
7.2
133.0
125.9
106.3
56.5
49.7
123.2
64.1
59.1
129.7
62.5
67 .2
166.8
84.4
82.3
158.1
69.4
88 .6
157.3
65 .7
91 .6
162.9
65.7
97 .2
2 2 9 .3
80.1
149.1
26 8.2
88 .9
179.3
Percent distribution
Gross national p ro d u c.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal consum ption e x p en d itu res..
Gross private dom estic investm ent. ..
Fixed in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n re s id e n tia.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R esidential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Change in business in v e n to rie...
s
Net exports of goods and services
....
E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Governm ent purchases of goods
and ervices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal G o v e rn m e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
......
State and local governm ent
100.0
62.1
16.8
15.5
9.8
5.8
1.3
.7
4.5
3.8
100.0
64.1
13.3
13.7
9.0
4.6
- .2
.5
4.8
4.3
100.0
64 .0
15.0
14.2
9.0
5.2
.9
.1
4.7
4.6
10 0.0
63.6
14.5
13.6
9.1
4.5
.9
1.0
5.5
4.5
100.0
63.9
15.5
14.2
10.4
3.9
1.3
20.3
11.7
8.7
21.9
12.0
10.0
20.9
11.1
9.8
20.9
10.9
10.0
5.7
4.7
100.0
63.4
14.4
13.6
10.3
3.3
.8
.2
6.1
5.9
100.0
65.4
13.8
13.4
10.3
3.1
.5
.3
6.8
6.5
100.0
65 .9
14.3
13.7
9.8
3.9
.6
.1
6.7
6.6
10 0.0
65.9
15.1
14.6
10.2
4.4
.5
-.2
6.7
6.9
100.0
65.1
15.7
14.8
11.5
3.3
.9
.5
8.5
8.0
100.0
65.3
15.5
14.8
11.5
3.4
.7
.5
9.2
8.7
19.6
9.4
10.2
22 .0
11.1
10.8
2 0 .4
8.9
11.4
19.7
8.2
11.4
19.2
7.7
11.5
18.7
6.5
12.1
18.6
6.2
12.4
1.0
Average annual rates of change 2
Projected
1955-68
Gross national p ro d u c t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal consum ption ex p e n d itu re s .
Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t...
Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n re s id e n tia.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R esidential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Change in business in v e n to rie s ...
N et exports of goods and services
...
E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Governm ent purchases of goods i
and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal G o v e rn m en.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tate and local g overnm ent
......
1965-72
1972-80
3.8
4.0
2.6
2.7
4.2
- .6
.0
-7 . 1
6.2
7.4
3.6
4.0
3.2
4.0
3.4
5.5
-9 .3
4.7
4.6
5.2
4.9
6.3
1.1
12.5
( 3)
( 3)
6.0
9.3
7.9
6.7
4.4
3.4
5.6
3.3
.7
5.4
4.4
2.5
5.5
1968-85
3.8
4.0
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.0
3.4
10.6
6.4
o
6.3
2.8
.3
4.7
1968-80
1980-85
4.1
4.3
4.8
4.8
5.0
4.2
5.2
14.0
7.0
6.7
3.3
3.3
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.5
-.8
2.6
4.9
5.1
2.7
-.4
5.1
3.2
2.1
3.8
1 These num bers d iffe r from th e current-dollar num bers because these
SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D epa rtm ent of Com m erce, Bureau o
are from the 1963 inpu t-output accounts and thus include rebenchm arking.
Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics;
2 Compound interest rates between term in al years.
projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics:
3 N et exports were negative in 1972.
41
jectedto continue, resulting in a slower rate
of increase for the PCE deflator than for the
overall GNP deflator. For this reason, the
current-dollar values of PCE (in appendix
table B-3) represent a smaller share and
exhibit less growth, relative to GNP, than
the constant-dollar figures just discussed.
grows faster than GNP over the 1968 to
1985 period as a whole, its sensitivity to
economic growth is reflected in the fact that
from 1980 to 1985, when GNP growth
slows down, investment growth declines
sharply to 3.2 percent a year or slightly
less than the GNP growth rate for the
period.
Real investment in residential structures
is projected to grow at 4.2 percent annually
from 1968 to 1980 and at 3.5 percent after
1980. Several factors are involved in this
projected slowing in 1980-85. The effect of
the decrease in the GNP growth from 1980
to 1985 is reinforced by a decrease in the
rate of new family formation as the recent
decrease in birth rates is translated into
lower population growth in the primary
family formation age group during the
1980’s, especially when compared to the
1968-80 rate of family formation. In addition,
the effects of the housing goals program
have been incorporated into the projections
through the late 1970’s. It is assumed that
the end of this program will be accompanied
by some slowdown in the rate of expansion
in residential investment.
The fourth category of GPDI, change in
business inventories, is a small share of
the total and is a cyclical variable. With
the assumption of a rapidly growing stable
economy through 1980, the change in busi
ness inventories is projected to grow} at a
rate of 5.2 percent from 1968 to 1980. As
the GNP growth rate slows after 1980,
change in business inventories declines in
constant dollars.
Gross private domestic investment. Gross
private domestic investment (GPDI) con
sists of purchases of capital resources which
will be productive of goods and services in
the future. Gross private domestic invest
ment is projected separately in the macroeconometric model for four categories of
expenditures. These categories are (1) non
reside ntial structures, (2) producers’ dura
ble equipment, (3) residential structures,
and (4) change in business inventories.
For the historical years shown in table
18, an average of 14.7 percent of the GNP
was devoted to new capital formation, re
placement of existing capital, and residen
tial construction. The share of GPDI in the
GNP varies between a high of 16.8 percent
in 1955 and a low of 13.3 percent in 1958,
exhibiting sensitivity to changing economic
conditions. The projected level of GPDI in
1985 is $224.2 billion (in 1963 dollars),
15.5 percent of GNP. The projected growth
rate of GPDI is 4.4 percent annually from
1972 to 1985, well above the 1965 to 1972
rate of 3.2 percent. In evaluating invest
ment as an economic phenomenon however,
it is more meaningful to break it into nonresidential investment, residential invest
ment, and business inventories. When this
is done, the declining share of total invest
ment can be seen as attributable to the
slow growth in residential structures during
1955-68. Nonresidential investment has in
creased faster than GNP, and, as a conse
quence, it has increased its share of GNP.
In the 1968-80 period it is projected to
grow at 5.0 percent a year—appreciably
faster than the GNP growth of 4.1 percent
over the same period (both in 1963 dollars).
Several factors influence the rapid growth,
one being the appreciable acceleration in
the rate of increase of business savings.
Additionally, requirements for pollution con
trol raise the projected needs for invest
ment. Although nonresidential investment
The current-dollar investment projec
tions (appendix table B-3) behav^ very
much like the constant-dollar projections
relative to GNP and in their growth pat
terns. This is because the rates of price
increase for investment goods and over
all GNP have been quite similar and are
projected to continue growing at nearly the
same rates. The deflator for residential
investment is projected to grow more rapid
ly than the nonresidential deflator, however,
as it has in the past. Therefore, the cur
rent-dollar share of residential investment
in total investment is slightly higher than
the corresponding share in 1963 dollars.
42
Net exports of goods and services. Net ex
ports of goods and services is exogenous to
the macromodel used in developing these
projections. Therefore, the levels of imports
and exports shown in table 18 were not
derived from this model, as were the other
components of demand GNP. The level of
1985 net exports in 1963 dollars is pro
jected to be $7.2 billion or 0.5 percent of
GNP. The projection assumes a recovery
from the negative net exports of 1972. Both
imports and exports have been growing
faster than GNP historically; this continues
in the projected period. By 1985, imports
are projected to reach $125.9 billion (in
1963 dollars) representing 8.7 percent of
GNP. The comparable ratios of imports to
GNP in 1955 and 1972 were 3.8 and 6.9
percent, respectively. Exports are projected
to reach $133.0 billion (in 1963 dollars) by
1985.
The relative growth rates of imports and
exports are of primary importance since
only the net exports figure enters into the
GNP estimate. The strong growth in the
domestic economy projected through 1980
is accompanied by an improvement in the
net export position. From 1968 to 1980,
the average annual rate of increase for
exports is projected to be 7.0 percent a
year, compared to the rate for imports of
6.7 percent. Although net exports increase
slightly between 1980 and 1985, the pro
jected growth rate of imports during that
period is slightly above the export rate.3
3
billion (in 1963 dollars) by 1985, an in
crease of $105.3 billion over their 1972
level. As a share of GNP, they are pro
jected to be 18.6 percent in 1985, slightly
below the 19.2 percent share in 1972 and
well below the 1968 share of 22.0 percent.
In general, the growth of the government
portion of demand GNP is projected to slow
down, but the trends and projections are
best discussed separately for Federal Gov
ernment and State and local governments
(table 18).
Federal purchases of goods and services
are dominated by national defense, which
accounted for 71 percent of the total in
1972. The growth rates for defense and
therefore total Federal purchases are very
irregular. This is largely due to the use of
1968 as a reference base — a year of high
defense purchases to support the Vietnam
war. Thus, the 1955-68 growth rate in
Federal purchases of 3.4 percent is unreal
istically high, and the projected change for
1972-80 of 2.5 percent a year, slowing to
2.1 percent a year in 1980-85, is probably
more representative. This projection of slow
er growth than in 1955-68 assumes that
there will be no major war. Because of the
Vietnam conflict and the no-war assump
tion, it is best to use 1972 as a basis for
describing trends in Federal purchases. An
additional factor in the projected slowing of
Federal purchases is that the space pro
gram, which grew rapidly until the late
1960’s, is not expected to add any impetus
Government purchases of goods and ser
vices. The portion of government expendi
ture which enters directly into demand GNP
is called purchases of goods and services.3
4
In tdtal, government purchases of goods
and services are projected to reach $268.2
34 Such expenditures as current outlays of govern
ment enterprises, transfer payments, interest payments,
subsidies, and land aquisition are excluded from the
government purchases account. Government purchases
are shown in table 18 separately for Federal Government
and State and local governments. If expenditures were
used instead of purchases as the measure of government
demand in the demand GNP account, it would result in a
double counting problem. For example, grants-in-aid
would appear both in Federal expenditures and in State
and local expenditures. In many cases, such as welfare
grants, the expenditures would be counted a third time
when spent by their private sector recipients. For the
Federal Government, the share of nonpurchases in total
expenditures is much higher than for State and local
governments. In 1972, the nonpurchases share was 57
percent for the Federal Government, but only 8.2 per
cent for State and local. Because of these differences,
purchases alone are not an accurate vehicle for compar
ing Federal with State and local government expenditures.
33 In current dollars net exports are projected to
reach $9.7 billion in 1985, 0.33 percent of current-dollar
GNP (appendix table B-3). The share is smaller than the
1963-dollar share because the price deflator for net ex
ports rises less rapidly than the GNP deflator. Projected
imports in current dollars have a greater growth relative
to exports than in 1963 dollars because the import
deflator rose faster between 1968 and 1972 than the
export deflator. After 1972, the export and import defla
tors in these projections are assumed to rise at the same
rate.
43
slow during the projected period relative to
the past growth of 5.6 percent a year dur
ing 1955-68, but they still are projected to
increase faster than GNP. Increasing at an
annual rate of 5.1 percent between 1968
and 1980, State and local purchases reach
$149.1 billion in 1980 and further increase
to $179.3 billion by 1985 (1963 dollars).
The continued increase of State and local
purchases is influenced by both the rapid
growth of the general economy from 1968
to 1980 and the continued increase in Fed
eral aid to these governments. The increase
is projected to be less rapid than in the
past because of the slower growth expected
in public school enrollment and a diminished
rate of growth of Federal grants-in-aid. After
1980, the growth of State and local pur
chases is expected to taper off even further
to an annual rate of 3.8 percent. This slow
down is primarily related to decreased
growth rates of population and income,
which influence State and local governments
through their tax base and the require
ments for their services. In addition, it has
been assumed that Federal grants-in-aid
will increase even less rapidly after 1980
than in the 1972 to 1980 period.
to Federal expenditures over the 1972-85
period.
The overall Federal purchases projection
in current dollars results in a decrease in
this share of GNP. The 5.9-percent rate of
increase projected for 1972 to 1985 is well
below the GNP growth rate of 7.4 percent
and also below the growth rate of Federal
purchases from 1965 to 1972 of 6.6percent.
The explanation lies in the compensation
deflator, that is, the rate of increase in gov
ernment wages (and prices of government
product as used in the national income
accounts) is not expected to be as rapid in
the future as during 1965-72, when Federal
employees were receiving extra pay raises
to achieve comparability with the private
economy.
State and local government purchases
of goods and services have been character
ized by very rapid and steady growth since
the early 1950’s. They have increased as a
share of real GNP from 8.7 percent in 1955
to 11.5 percent in 1972.3 The real growth
5
of State and local purchases is expected to
35 In current dollars the increase was even greater,
7.6 to 13.0 percent. (See appendix table B -3.)
44
Chapter 3. The Structure of Demand
In chapter 2 the derivation of the major
components of demand was described. In
that chapter, however, the treatment was
in terms of the sources and uses of funds,
that is, income (originating as a part of the
production process) and demand for goods
and services (reflecting the concomitant
disposition of those funds). In the previous
chapter, the changes (as well as inter
actions) among the conventional categories
of demand — consumption, investment, gov
ernment, and transactions with the rest of
the world were traced, with the dollar flows
of income and demand stated initially in
the price levels of the period they repre
sent, or current dollars, and subsequently
in 1963 dollars, or in real terms.
The focus of this chapter is the changing
structure of real demand among the major
categories, that is, consumption, invest
ment, etc., and also the changing composi
tion of demand within each of the major
demand categories such as durable or non
durable consumer commodities. This de
tailed analysis of the industrial structure of
demand provides the link to the input-output
system discussed in chapter 4 and the re
sulting industrial distribution of output and
employment in chapter 5.
GNP growth path, particularly over the
longer run. This close relationship to GNP
is an important factor, particularly during
the projected slowdown in GNP growth in
the 1980-85 period.
Growth in total consumer expenditures. The
growth of PCE was faster on average dur
ing the 1960’s, at 4.5 percent a year, than
during the 1950’s (3.5 percent). Ovei the
1955-68 period the growth was 4.0 percent
(table 19). The projected growth in con
sumer expenditures for 1968-80 suggests a
pattern closer to that of the 1960’s —
increasing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent
a year. Since PCE did not grow as rapidly
between 1968 and 1972, a 4.6 percent
annual growth rate from 1972 is implied to
reach the 1980 projected level of consumer
expenditures. After 1980, the slowdown in
the growth of GNP is accompanied by a
corresponding deceleration of the growth of
PCE to an average rate of 3.3 percent
annually, or a rate closer to the pattern in
the 1950’s.
Part of the growth in PCE is due to an
increase in population, i.e. in the number of
consumers. However, most of the growth is
due to an increase in consumption per indivi
dual. Between 1955 and 1968, PCE per
capita grew at an average annual rate of
2.4 percent or from a level of $1,755 to
$2,401 per capita (in 1963 dollars). By
1980 the projections show $3,569 per capita
consumption and by 1985, $427 above that
level, or $3,996 per capita. Since these
figures are adjusted for price change, they
suggest how much our standard of living
has increased and is expected to continue
to improve.
The trend in terms of the number of
households is somewhat different because
the growth in households lags significantly
Personal consumption expenditures
As the largest component of demand
GNP, consumer expenditures during the
postwar period have varied as a proportion
of GNP from 60 to 66 percent (measured
in 1963 dollars). The projections of PCE for
1980 and 1985 fall into this range (65.1
percent of GNP in 1980 and 65.3 percent
in 1985). In general, because of the size of
PCE, the growth pattern follows closely the
45
Table 19.
Personal consumption expenditures, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Projected
Component
1955
1958
1959
1960
1963
1965
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
Billions of 1963 dollars
Personal consum ption ex p e n d itu re s
....
.
Durable goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Autos and p a rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
F u rn itu re an d household
eq u ip m e n t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
O ther durable go o d .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Food and beverages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Clothing and s h o e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gasoline and o i.l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other nondurable go o d s. . . . . . . . . . .
S e rv ic e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
H ousing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Household operation s e rv ic e.s. .
...........
Tran sportation servic es
O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$2 9 1 .2
42 .8
22.2
16.2
4.4
136.2
74.9
24 .3
10.1
26 .9
112.2
38 .3
16.7
10.9
46 .3
1
$ 3 0 7 .3 $ 3 2 6 .2 $ 3 3 5 .7 $ 3 75 .5 $ 4 2 3 .2 $ 4 8 1 .8 $ 4 9 9 .3 $5 08 .0 $ 5 2 7 .6 $ 5 5 9 .6 $ 7 9 9 9 ($ 9 4 1 .9
52.9
84.1
37.0
43 .0
44 .2
9 1 .0 102.7 14 6.0 170.1
82.4
65.7
79 9
20 .9
25.3
43 .5
16.1
19.9
40.4
49 .5
38.4
36.2
32.0
70 .2
80 .3
16.1
4.9
144.5
78.7
24.9
11.5
29.5
125.7
44 .0
19.0
11.3
51.5
17.6
5.4
151.7
82.1
26.4
12.0
31.2
131.5
46 .0
19.8
11.8
53.8
17.6
5.7
154.6
83.3
26 .9
12.4
32 .0
136.9
48.1
20.7
12.3
55.8
20.9
6.7
167.9
87.9
29.5
13.7
36.8
154.7
55.6
23.4
12.7
63.1
25.6
8.1
185.5
95.4
33.9
15.2
40.9
172.0
62.5
25.6
13.5
70.5
31.0
10.5
205.1
102.5
38.4
17.7
46.4
196.8
71.7
29 .6
15.2
80.3
32.6
11.1
20 9 .8
102.9
39.4
18.8
48 .6
205.4
75.3
31.3
15.5
83.3
34 .6
11.5
21 4.7
104.7
39 .8
19.8
50.4
2 1 0.9
78.3
32.9
15.4
84.3
36 .0
11.6
2 1 9 .6
107.1
41 .3
20 .6
50 .6
2 1 7 .0
8 0 .8
33.7
15.9
86 .5
40 .7
12.6
2 2 9 .4
10 9.3
44.1
22 .2
5 3 .8
2 2 7.4
83 .6
35 .6
16.6
91 .6
55 .8
65 6
19.9
24 .2
3 1 6 .8 3 6 4 .0
14 5.8 16 4.2
57.1
6 2 .8
3 3 .0
40 .9
8 0 .8
96.1
3 3 7 .2 4 0 7 .7
12 4.5 153.4
52 .3
6 3 .8
23 .2
26 .5
137.1 164.1
Percent distribution
Personal consum ption e x p e n d itu re s
....
Durable goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Autos and p a rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Furniture and household
eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
O ther durable goo d .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Food and beverages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Clothing and s h o es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Gasoline and o il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
O ther nondurable g o o d .s.........
S e rv ic e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Housing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Household operation s e rv ic e...
s
Tran sportation services..........
.
.
Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
100.0
14.7
7.6
100.0
12.0
5.2
100.0
13.2
6.1
100.0
13.2
6.2
100.0
14.1
6.7
100.0
15.5
7.6
100.0
16.6
8.0
100.0
16.8
8.1
100.0
16.2
7.1
10 0.0
17.2
8.2
10 0.0
18.4
8.8
10 0.0
18.2
8.8
10 0 .0
18.0
8.5
5.5
1.5
46 .8
25.7
8.3
3.5
9.2
38.5
13.1
5.7
3.7
15.9
5.2
1.6
47 .0
25.6
8.1
3.7
9.6
40 .9
14.3
6.2
3.7
16.7
5.4
1.7
46 .5
25.2
8.1
3.7
9.5
40 .3
14.1
6.1
3.6
16.5
5.2
1.7
46.1
24 .8
8.0
3.7
9.5
40 .8
14.3
6.2
3.7
16.6
5.6
1.8
44.7
23.4
7.9
3.6
9.8
41.2
14.8
6.2
3.4
16.8
6.0
1.9
43.8
22.5
8.0
3.6
9.7
40.6
14.8
6.0
3.2
16.6
6.4
2.2
42 .6
21 .3
8.0
3.7
9.6
40 .8
14.9
6.1
3.1
16.7
6.5
2.2
42.0
20 .6
7.9
3.8
9.7
41.1
15.3
6.4
3.1
16.7
6.8
2.3
42 .3
20.6
7.8
3.9
9.9
41.5
15.4
6.5
3.0
16.6
6.8
2.2
4 1 .6
20 .3
7.8
3.9
9.6
41.1
15.3
6.4
3.0
16.4
7.3
2.2
4 1 .0
19.5
7 9
4 0
9.6
4 0 .6
14.9
6 4
3.0
16.4
70
2.5
39 6
182
7 1
4 1
10.1
42.1
15.6
6 5
2.9
17.1
7.0
2.6
38 .6
17.4
6.7
4.3
10.2
43 .3
16.3
6 8
2.8
17.4
L___
Average annual rates of change
Projected
1951-59
Personal consum ption e x p e n d itu re s
....
Durable goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Autos and p a rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Furniture and household
eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other durable g o o d .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Food and beverages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Clothing and s h o e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gasoline and o il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
O ther nondurable g o o d s. . . . . . . . . . .
S e rv ic e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Housing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Household operation s e rv ic e...
s
Tran sportation services
...........
Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1 9 55 -68
1 9 60 -69
1965-72
1968-72
1972-80
19 68 -85
19 68 -80
19 80 -85
3.5
4.1
4.5
4.0
4.9
4.3
4.5
7.4
7.6
4.0
6.6
6.4
3.8
6.5
6.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.5
4.4
4.3
5.2
5.2
3.3
3.1
2.7
3.3
5.2
2.9
2.6
2.4
5.9
3.1
4.0
5.1
4.6
1.2
3.5
5.1
6.9
3.2
2.4
3.6
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.9
4.5
2.6
4.3
7.1
7.7
3.5
2.4
4.3
4.7
4.8
4.6
5.1
4.7
2.6
4.6
6.8
6.5
3.1
2.0
3.8
5.6
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.8
3.0
3.8
7.0
4.7
2.8
1.6
3.5
5.8
3.8
3.7
3.9
4.7
2.2
3.3
4.0
5.9
4.1
3.7
3.3
5.1
5.2
5.0
5.1
4.9
4.3
5.2
4.5
5.0
3.4
28
2.9
5.0
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.6
3.3
4.3
5.0
5.5
3.7
3.0
3.4
5.3
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.9
3.6
4.6
3.3
4 .0
2.8
2.4
1.9
4.4
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.1
2.7
3.7
' Compound interest rates between te rm in a l years.
SOURCE:
Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics;
Historical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
46
product or service to total PCE and relative
prices, using appropriate lags for these
variables. Each equation projects expendi
tures for a product annually in per capita
terms.3 All projections are made in con
8
stant dollars, that is, in real terms.3 In
9
this model, the projected movement over
time of expenditures for a product depends
on the past behavior that was captured in
the equation and the assumed changes and
levels of the independent variables. Each
product reacts differently to the variables.
Of particular importance is the slowdown
of the expansion of PCE. Several products
are very sensitive to changes in total PCE
while others show a more stable trend in
that they are not nearly as sensitive to
sharp changes in income growth.
behind population growth.3 The 1955-68
6
growth rate of households was about 1.8
percent a year. This period had a corre
sponding 2.1-percent growth of consumption
per household. From 1968 to 1980, the
growth of average consumption per house
hold is projected at a slightly faster rate,
2.5 percent a year, though the number of
households continues to increase at the
1955-68 rate. Household formation slows
slightly in the 1980-85 period to an annual
rate of 1.7 percent while the marked slow
down in the expansion of PCE results in a
1.6-percent growth rate for personal con
sumption expenditures per household.
Distribution of consumer expenditures. The
projection of the level of personal consump
tion expenditures as described in chapter 2
is based on a macromodel. The task de
scribed in this chapter is the projection of
the distribution of consumer demand into
what is called an input-output bill of goods.
This is done in two steps. First, total PCE
is distributed among types of products the
consumer will purchase, such as transporta
tion. Then the products are traced to their
producing industry in the input-output sys
tem, for example, the amount of purchased
transportation produced by airlines, buses,
or taxis. Two procedures are involved and
will be discussed separately below.
Hendrick S. Houthakker and Lester D.
Taylor3 developed a system of dynamic
7
equations to project 82 consumption cate
gories in the national income accounts as
defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
of the U. S. Department of Commerce. Two
structural behavioral models were consid
ered in the Houthakker-Taylor research,
one based on stock-level adjustment or
habit formation and the other describing
consumer attempts to attain a level of con
sumption. Projected levels of a given
consumer good or service are determined
in general by relating expenditures for this
Durable consumer goods. Of the three ma
jor components of PCE, the durable goods
category has been the most sensitive to
changes in economic conditions. Although
the smallest component, it has experienced,
in general, the most rapid longrun growth,
increasing its share of PCE from 12.5 per
cent in 1951 to 18.4 percent in 1972. How
ever, expenditures on durable consumer
goods have also demonstrated the most
pronounced variation in growth. Therefore,
it is very important to examine the whole
time path in comparing growth rates. For
example, 1955 was a remarkably good year
for durables; 1958, a recession year, was one
of the worst, actually below the 1955 level.
The 1955-68 growth rate in spending on
consumer durables was 4.9 percent annually
(table 19). On the other hand, from 1958
to 1968 durables grew at an annual rate of
7.9 percent. While PCE was experiencing a
slower growth in the 1950’s, durable goods
averaged a 1.2-percent increase for every
1-percent growth in PCE. In the 1960’s
when PCE experienced a more rapid growth,
averaging an increase of 4.5 percent annual
ly, durables increased 1.6 percent for every
OQ
36Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1 9 7 2 ( Bu
reau of the Census), table 50, p. 39, "Households, Fami
lies, Subfamilies, Married Couples, and Unrelated
Individuals: 1950 to 1 9 71 .”
37H. S. Houthakker and L. D. Taylor, Consumer
Demand in the United States: Analyses and Projections
(Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1970.)
Working with consumption per capita avoids any
implicit assumption about population growth.
39This research on the consumption model was origi
nally in 1958 dollars. However, in these projections the
1958 constant-dollar figures have been converted to
1963 dollars to be consistent with the input-output table
used.
47
percentage point increase in PCE.
The projections of consumer durables
show reactions to changing growth patterns
in PCE.4 Although the projected rate of
0
expenditures for durables for the entire
period 1968-85 continues to be greater than
that of the total PCE, the slower overall
growth in the economy projected during the
1980’s causes a response in which durables
grow at a rate of 3.1 percent from 1980 to
1985 while PCE is projected to increase at
an average of 3.3 percent. Therefore, the
proportion of PCE going to durables falls
slightly after 1980, to 18.0 percent in 1985.
The more rapid growth of durables between
1968 and 1972 relative to PCE results in a
slower growth rate between 1972 and 1980,
although the 1968-80 growth rate for dura
bles, at 5.2 percent, is significantly above
that for total consumer expenditures.
Durable goods make up 11 of the approxi
mately 80 PCE categories projected. The
dominant product in both magnitude (about
40 percent of expenditures for durables)
and effect on the behavior of the major
component is new cars and net purchases of
used cars (VIII. l.a). 4 A very volatile
1
item, it includes, in addition to domestic
new cars, imported new cars, margins on
used cars, recreational vehicles and trail
ers, mobile homes, and value to scrap
dealers of junked cars. Each of the compo
nents of the automobile category has a
different rate of growth. Recently, foreign
new cars and mobile homes and recrea
tional vehicles have grown much more rapid
ly than the total of consumer purchases of
motor vehicles. For instance, between 1955
and 1968 expenditures for mobile homes
grew at an annual rate of over 14 percent
a year. Between 1968 and 1972, they grew
at a rate of over 20 percent a year. The
growth of purchases of imported cars has
been equally rapid (table 20).
Table 20. Consumer purchases of automobiles and mobile homes,
selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
(Based on data in 1963 dollars, purchaser prices)
Percent distribution
1955
1958
1965
1968
1972
19 80
1985
T o ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10 0 .0 10 0.0
Dom estic new c a r s .... 90.7
Im ported c a rs . . . . . . . .
.
.6
Mobile homes and recreational vehicles...
2.2
Other 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.5
80.5
4.9
86.0
3.8
82.1
6.6
73 .4
9.6
69 .5
12.3
68 .9
14.2
4.4
10.2
5.2
5.1
8.1
3.2
13.8
3.2
11.7
6.5
12.1
4.8
Average annual rates of change 2
Projected
1955-68 1958-68 19 68 -72 19 68 -80 1 9 72 -80 1980-85
3.9
9.3
6.2
4.9
4.3
2.5
Dom estic new c a r s .... 3.1
24.2
Im ported cars . . . . . . . .
.
Mobile homes and recreational vehicles... 14.7
9.5
12.5
3.2
16.6
3.5
11.6
3.6
9.1
2.3
3.0
16.1
21.5
8.2
2.2
3.1
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
’ 1 Includes used car margins and inventory change ad justm ent.
2 Compound in te re s t rates between term in al years.
SOURCE: H istorical data based on data from U.S. D ep a rtm en t of
Com m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by
Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau o f Labor S tatistics.
Because the recession of 1958 had a
significant dampening effect on consumer
purchases of automobiles (entire category
VIII. l.a) in the 1950’s, expenditures for
autos during this decade appear to have a
much slower rate of growth than in the
1960’ s. By observing the annual trend in
consumer purchases of autos it can be seen
that there were only 3 years during the
1960’ s in which auto expenditures were
less than the previous year, while during
the previous decade five such turndowns
occurred.4 The 1951-59 rate of growth in
2
auto purchases was 4.5 percent but between
1960 and 1969 the growth rate averaged
7.6 percent. The projection from 1968 to
1980 falls between the two, at 4.9 percent
a year, but from 1972 the rate of growth is
only 4.3 percent due to the remarkable
expansion in auto purchases in 1971 and
40Durable consumer goods are not projected in total
but represent the summation of projections for different
products within the Houthakker-Taylor system.
4’ The number in parentheses refers to the catego
ries in table 2.5 in the July 1973 issue of the Survey of
Current Business published by the Department of Com
merce. Table A -l in appendix A of this bulletin repro
duces this listing for the reader’s convenience. Any
number of this nature refers to this table.
Projected
Category
42See July 1972 and earlier July issues of Survey of
Current Business.
48
Table 21.
Changes in
consumer purchases of selected durable goods, selected periods, actual and projected, 1951-85
(Based on data in 1963 dollars, purchaser prices)
Average annual rates of change
Projected
Category
1951-63
1955-65
19 59 -68
19 63 -68
1968-72
19 72 -80
1968-85
1968-80
1 9 80 -85
5.6
3.5
2.8
6.1
3.2
5.5
8.0
3.5
6.8
10.3
5.0
7.5
1.8
2.7
6.8
4.5
5.3
4.7
3.4
3.8
4.6
3.3
4.4
5.4
3.6
2.4
2.9
Ophthalm ic products and
orthopedic a p p lia n c e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.3
5.5
7.4
9.6
-3 .0
5.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
l.b Tires, tubes, accessories and parts
.......
5.7
7.4
6.8
8.6
9.1
5.9
6.1
6.9
4.6
Wheel goods, durable toys, sport
equipm ent, e tc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
8.4
6.8
7.1
9.2
11.2
7.1
7.3
8.4
4.6
Radio and TV receivers, records, and
musical ins tru m en ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
7.4
7.3
11.0
13.3
9.6
4.8
5.7
6.4
4.0
- - - - - - - - -\
*
II. 7 Jewelry and w a tc h e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
V. 1 F u rn itu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
V. 4 Other durable house furnishings
............
VI
V III
2
IX. 4
IX 5
1 Compound interest rates between term in al years.
SOURCE. Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of
Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by
NOTE: Category numbers refer to classification system shown in ap p en
Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
dix table A -l.
1972. Between 1980 and 1985 the rate is
projected to be slower, at 2.5 percent. The
projections take into account the effects on
auto purchases of pollution abatement
equipment and its short-term effect of damp
ening buyer interest in cars, continuing
urban congestion which may slow buyer en
thusiasm for more cars, and a continuing
trend toward smaller cars, which in dollar
terms translates into less dollars of auto
purchase.
Several other durable consumer goods
show higher growth rates than the average
for personal consumption expenditures.
These are furniture and household equip
ment and include household furniture (V. 1),
other durable house furnishings (V.4), and
radio and television receivers, records, and
musical instruments (IX. 5). These three
product groups compose about one-fifth of
consumer durables. All three increase their
share of PCE rapidly until 1980 and lose
momentum quickly in the 1980’s. The high
growth rate for furniture until 1980 corre
sponds to the growth rate for housing.
Most products in durable goods have a
relatively high growth rate, consistent with
past trends. Wheel goods, durable toys,
sport equipment, boats and pleasure air
craft (IX.4), and tires, tubes, accessories,
and parts (VIII. l.b) grow at rates signifi
cantly faster than the average for personal
consumption expenditures and maintain
strong growth after 1980, 7.3 percent for
category IX.4 and 6.1 percent for VIII. l.b
between 1968 and 1985 (table 21). On the
other hand, ophthalmic and orthopedic pro
ducts (VI.2) and jewelry and watches (II.7)
though
experiencing fairly consistent
growth in the 1960’s, demonstrated a defi
nite slowing in the rate of growth in the
latter part of the decade. In the projected
period 1972-85 expenditures for these pro
ducts will be growing at a pace below their
long-term historical rates.
Nondurable goods. Unlike expenditures
for durable goods, nondurable expenditures
have consistently grown more slowly than
total consumer expenditures. This is as
expected because many nondurable goods
are considered necessities and their pur
chase is generally not influenced much by
49
Table 22.
Food consumption per capita, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
1963 dollars, purchaser prices
Projected
Category
1968
1972
1 9 80
1 9 85
1955
1.1
1.2
1.3
Food o ff prem ise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Food on prem ise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Food furnished government and
com m ercial em ployees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
1.4 Food produced and consumed on fa r m. s. . . .
. .
1959
1965
$3 2 3
112
$340
109
$366
112
$3 77
120
$387
128
$473
166
$508
179
8
10
7
7
7
4
8
3
7
3
9
2
9
2
Average annual rates of change 1
Projected
19 55 -68
1.1
1.2
Food o ff prem ise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Food on prem ise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
1959-68
1968-72
19 68 -80
1 9 72 -80
1.2
.5
1.2
1.1
.7
1.6
1.9
2.7
2.5
3.3
19 80 -85
1.4
1.5
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCES: ( 1 ) Food consum ption: Historical data from U.S. D e p a rt
NOTE: Population estim ates for calculating per capita consum ption are ment of Com m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 19 63 dollars
for July 1 of each year. Category numbers refer to classification system by Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics .
( 2 ) Population: Bureau of th e Census; projections are series E.
shown in appendix table A -l.
changes in income.4 A consequence of the
3
slower growth is that nondurable goods have
been a continually smaller proportion of
PCE over time. In 1955, 46.8 percent of
consumers’ purchases were nondurables
while by 1972 only 41.0 percent of PCE
consisted of nondurables. This slower growth
relative to PCE is projected to continue so
that in 1985 the percentage taken by non
durables is expected to decline to 38.6
(table 19).
/
About half of the expenditures for con
sumer nondurable goods are for food and
beverages. Food and beverage purchases
have been growing at rates much slower
than PCE and for most years less rapidly
than other nondurables purchases. Food
purchased for off-premise consumption ( 1.1),
that is, food eaten at home, is projected to
expand at a rate of 2.5 percent in real
terms to 1980, reaching a per capita rate
of $473 from $387 in 1972. This compares
to a growth of 1.2 percent a year from
1955 to 1968. The faster growth reflects
the projected faster growth in income dur
ing the 1970’s. This growth is expected to
slow over the 1980-85 period. Restaurants
(1.2) are projected to expand rapidly in the
1970’s but during the 1980’s are projected
to return to the 1959-68 growth trend
(table 22).
The trend in expenditures for gasoline
and oil (VIII. l.d) is not characteristic of
nondurables in general; these commodities
have shown a rapid growth rate in the past
(table 19). This trend is projected to conti
nue. The projected increase of 5.1 percent
annually from 1972 to 1980 is based on
increased usage of auto transportation and
higher real costs per mile of driving caused
by more elaborate equipment on cars, espe
cially for pollution abatement. The projec
tion does not hypothesize any constraint in
the supply of gasoline such as was experi
enced in early 1974.
"Other nondurable goods” (table 19) is
an aggregate of 12 products, including a
wide variety of goods such as toilet articles,
stationery, flowers, and coal. This compo
nent accelerated from a growth rate of
approximately 3 percent a year in the
1950’s, below the rate for PCE, to an aver
age of 4.8 percent in the 1960’ s; this is pro
jected to slow down to 3.5 percent in the
1980-85 period, still above the rate of
growth of PCE.
*3 It should be noted, however, that two items, pur
chased meals, i.e., restaurant meals (1.2), and clothing
and luggage (II.3 ) are among the more income-elastic
consumer expenditures.
50
cent for the 1980’s.
Household operation services consists of
six categories. The growth rates for the
1950’s and 1960’ s as well as for the pro
jection period 1968-85 is 4.6 percent a year,
though the 1980-85 period is expected to
show a slightly slower growth rate than
this long-term trend. Telephone and tele
graph service (V.9) is projected to grow
the fastest in the household operation cate
gory, averaging 7.5 percent a year between
1968 and 1980 and 5.9 percent thereafter
(table 23). Telephone service is one of the
fastest growing consumption categories.
Domestic service (V. 10) is projected to
continue to decline in real terms as this
work appeals to fewer and fewer workers.
The electricity (V.8.a) projection explicitly
assumes a higher relative price, a depar
ture from past trends, and accounts for the
somewhat slower rate projected for 196880, while the 1980-85 slowdown reflects
the slower growth in income in this period.
Attempts to include a price variable in the
household gas (V.8.b) equation were not
successful. The new equation does include
more recent data but does not represent
any effects of constraints in supply.
In the past the category of transporta
tion services has demonstrated consum
ers’ attachment to the automobile and to
their independence and comfort. Trains,
buses, and cabs have suffered a deteriora
ting market. In the projection, some of
these trends have been modified and others
reversed in the belief that, as congestion
and pollution become more severe, consum-
Services. The growth pattern of ser
vices appears to have been more stable
in the last two decades than that of the
other components of consumer expendi
tures. Between 1951 and 1963 services
grew at an average rate of about 4 percent
a year. Total consumer expenditures were
increasing more slowly, at 3.5 percent a
year, which raised the proportion of consum
er expenditures devoted to services from
38.8 percent to 41.2 percent during this
period. Between 1963 and 1969, services
expanded at a slightly greater rate, 4.5
percent a year. During this same period,
durables were expanding even faster while
nondurables, although expanding somewhat
faster than they had previously, still were
not keeping pace with the other two con
sumer components. Consequently, services’
share of PCE remained at 41 percent for
both years. Between 1968 and 1972, the
growth rate slowed, largely as a result of
the housing component.
In order to maintain the longrun trend,
a strong 5 percent growth is projected for
1972 to 1980. The 1980-85 period con
tinues the projected growth of services at
a faster rate than total PCE.
Housing is of particular interest because
the four housing categories share a signifi
cant part of the total service category. For
example, in 1972, housing expenditures
were 36.8 percent of total services and
have shown a growth of about 5 percent a
year during the last two decades. A slight
ly slower trend is projected, 4.7 percent a
year between 1968 and 1980 and 4.3 per
Table 23. Changes in consumer purchases of selected household services, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85
(Based on data in 1963 dollars, purchaser prices)
Average annual rates of change 1
Projected
Category
19 55 -65
V .8.a
V.8.b
V .9
V.10
'
E le c tric ity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1
5.0
Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
6.7
Telephone and te le g ra.p .h. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Domestic service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - . 7
19 59 -68
19 68 -72
1968-80
19 72 -80
1980-85
6.0
4.2
7.7
-1 .6
6.3
2.7
7.0
-3 .3
5.4
3.7
7.5
-2 .1
4.9
4.2
7.8
-1 .5
3.9
3.4
5.9
-2 .9
Compound interest rates between term inal years.
NOTE:
table A -l.
SOURCE: Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com
m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by Bureau
Category num bers refer to classification system shown in appendix
of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
51
Table 24. Consumer purchases of selected transportation services, selected years 1955-1972 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Millions of 1 9 63 dollars, purchaser prices
Projected
Category
1955
V lll.2 .b
V III .2 .c
V III .3 .a
V III .3 .b
V III.3 .C
V III .l.c
V II I . l . e
V III.l.f
Ta xica b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$ 68 3
Railway (c o m m u ta tio. .n. ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
152
Railway ( in te r c ity ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 3 0
In te rc ity b us. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
342
A irlin.e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
46 4
Autom o bile repair, greasing, washing,
parking, storage, re n ta. .l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5,186
Bridge, tunnel, ferry, and road to lls . . . . . . . . .
176
A utom o bile insurance prem ium s less
claim s p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,570
1959
$
682
143
319
274
69 0
1965
$
1968
1972
$
557
129
100
241
2,66b
1980
1985
575
130
243
303
1,260
$ 582
137
165
289
2,112
6 ,1 6 3
300
7,107
444
7,5 7 8
519
8,473
630
11,24 6
939
1 2 ,48 9
1,189
1,762
2,0 4 8
2,5 2 0
2,814
3,247
3,5 8 4
$
596
152
388
323
5,157
$
601
163
456
342
6 ,6 9 3
Average annual rates of change 1
Projected
1955-65
V III .2 .b
V III.2 .c
V III.3 .a
V III .3 .b
V III.3 .c
V II I . l . c
V II I . l . e
V III.l.f
Ta xica b . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- 1.8
Railway (c o m m u ta tio n ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 1.6
Railway (in te r c ity ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 5.6
In te rc ity b u s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- 1.2
A irlin.e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.5
.
Autom o bile repair, greasing, washing,
3.2
parking, storage, r e n ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.7
Bridge, tunne l, ferry, and road to.lls. . . . .
. ..
Autom o bile insurance prem ium s less
2.7
claim s p a id. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1959-68
19 68 -72
19 68 -80
19 7 2 -8 0
19 80 -85
- 1.7
-.5
-7 .1
.6
13.2
- 1.1
-1 .5
-1 2 .0
- 4.5
5.9
0..2
.9
7.4
.9
7.7
0 .9
2.1
18.5
3.7
8.6
0.2
1.4
3.3
1.1
5.4
2.3
6.3
2.8
5.0
3.3
5.1
3.6
5.1
2.1
4.8
4.1
2.8
2.1
1.8
2.0
' C om P ° und Interest rates between term inal * earsSOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D epa rtm ent of Comm e
NOTE: Category num bers refer to classification shown in appendix
of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor S t
table A -l.
tics; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
ers will venture back to mass transporta
A slight rise in intercity bus travel (VIII.
tion. The 1968-80 growth rate of the entire
3.b) is projected, though a rate lower than
transportation category is projected at 3.6
the rate of growth of population. Airline
travel (VIII.3.c), on the other hand, will
percent a year.
Purchased local transportation declined
show a substantial increase, at a rate of
from $2.8 billion in 1951 to $1.5 billion in
7.7 percent a year from 1968 to 1980 and
1969. Taxicab use (VIII.2.b.) is projected
5.4 percent in the 1980-85 period. However,
to level off by 1980 at approximately the
this projected growth is slower than the
level of the 1960’s and street and electric
rate of increase in airline travel in the
railway and local buses (VIII.2.a) are pro
past; extraordinary growth averaging over
jected to slow their decline to that of the
10 percent annually took place in both the
1950’s and the 1960’s. The slowdown in
1960’ s. Intercity railway transportation
the rate of growth of airline travel reflects
(VIII.3.a) is projected to increase to $456
the maturing of the industry.
million in 1985 from $165 million in 1968,
"Other services” (table 19) is a mixture
although in general this category of trans
of 30 separate categories. For the past two
portation has declined since 1955 (table
24). Incorporated in these projections is the * decades it has been a fairly constant per
cent of PCE (16-17 percent) implying near
expectation that the rising costs of other
ly the same growth rate as PCE. This is
modes of transportation will make railroad
expected to continue. Expenditures for motravel more attractive.
52
Table 25. Consumer purchases of selected “ other services," selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
M illions of 1963 dollars, purchaser prices
Projected
Category
1955
Medical services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$ 1 3 ,2 1 4
4,5 2 9
V I.3 P h y sic ian.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
V I.4 D e n tis ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,839
VI.6 Privately controlled hospitals and
s a n ita riu m s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,519
13,54 0
Personal business services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Private e d u c a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,155
X .l
H ig h e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,259
991
X.2
Elem entary and secondary s c h o o ls . . . . . . . . .
905
X.3
O th e. r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
R ec re atio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,910
1,924
IX.8 .a M otion picture th e a te rs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1959
1965
1970
1971
1980
1985
$ 1 6 ,2 7 6
5,675
2,0 7 0
$ 2 1 ,6 8 5
7 ,130
2,617
$ 2 4 ,7 4 3
7,815
2 ,795
$ 3 0 ,7 8 4
9,467
2,984
$ 4 9 ,3 5 6
13,903
4 ,8 4 5
$ 6 1 ,5 4 0
1 6 ,5 1 3
5 ,730
5,7 1 0
15,15 7
3,942
1,684
1,290
968
6,251
1,209
8 ,213
2 0 ,4 2 5
5,417
2,431
1,797
1,189
6,9 5 8
826
10,025
2 3 ,7 4 5
6,722
3,085
1,983
1,654
7,420
736
12,95 8
2 6 ,5 0 5
7,209
3,247
2 ,049
1,913
8 ,234
674
2 4 ,51 9
3 9 ,0 4 0
10 ,45 8
4,9 7 9
2,417
3,072
11,519
592
3 2 ,2 0 6
4 6 ,0 3 9
12 ,48 6
5,886
2,6 5 0
3,9 5 0
13,151
521
Average annual rates of change '
Projected
1955-65
5.1
Medical services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
4.6
V I.3 P hy sic ian.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
VI.4 D e n tis ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6
V I.6 Privately controlled hospitals and
s a n ita riu m s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2
4.2
Personal business services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Private e d u c a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6
X .l
H ig h e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8
6.1
X.2
Elem entary and secondary s c h o o.ls . . . . .
. ..
X.3
O th e r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8
R e c re a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6
-8 . 1
IX .8 a M o tion picture th e a te .rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
19 59 -68
1968-72
19 68 -80
1972-80
1980-85
4.8
3.6
3.4
5.6
4.9
1.7
5.9
4.9
4.7
6.1
4.9
6.2
4 .5
3.5
3.4
6.5
5.1
6.1
7.0
4.9
6.1
1.9
-5 .4
6.7
2.8
1.8
1.3
.8
3.7
2.6
- 2.2
7.7
4.2
3.8
4.1
1.7
5.3
3.7
- 1.8
8.3
5.0
4.8
5.5
2.1
6.1
4.3
3.3
5.6
3.4
3.6
3.4
1.9
5.2
2.7
- 2.5
1 Compound interest rates between term in al years.
SOURCE: H isto rical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau
NOTE: Category num bers refer to classification system shown in ap p en of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 19 63 dollars by Bureau of Labor S ta tis
tics; projections by Bureau o f Labor Statistics.
dix tab le A -l.
tion pictures (IX. 8. a) are expected to con
tinue to decline as they have in the past
(table 25). Medical services will increase
in the future, at an average annual rate of
6.1 percent from 1972 to 1980. This is due
primarily to the rapid expansion projected
in privately controlled hospitals and sani
tariums (VI. 6), although services of physi
cians (VI.3) and dentists (VI.4) are ex
pected to increase faster than in the past.
Private education will have a declining share
of PCE, growing at only 3.8 percent com
pared to the average rate in the 1960’s of
5.8 percent. This slower growth for private
education expenditures will be due to reduc
tions in enrollment in private secondary
and elementary schools in line with the
reduced number of children in these age
groups, and a reduced participation rate in
private colleges and universities (X. 1) as
public universities absorb an increasing
proportion of college enrollees. However,
other education (X.3), encompassing many
adult education activities, will continue to
have a strong growth pattern, over 5 per
cent a year through 1985.
Personal consumption expenditures by pro
ducing sector. The discussion above des
cribed the projection of consumer expend
itures grouped into goods and services
according to their use by the consumer.
However, the input-output table is defined
in terms of producing industries. The next
53
step in the projection of consumer expendi
tures is to redefine the consumer categories
in terms of the parts of each consumption
category that are produced by each of the
134 industries.
For any product, the proportion that is
produced by a particular industry may
change over time due to alterations in the
composition of the consumer goods caused
by demand fluctuations, technological
changes, and other economic and noneco
nomic factors. As an example, a steadily
increasing proportion of all dinnerware pur
chased by consumers has been plastic
dinnerware.
The distribution of producing industries
for each of the consumer product groups
was projected to 1980 and 1985. Initially
each consumer category is shown in pur
chaser prices. To arrive at the portion
of these purchases generated by the pro
ducing industry, the value added by certain
industries providing transportation or dis
tribution services must be separated from
the purchasers’ value. (These transporta
tion and distribution industries are called
the margin industries and include whole
sale and retail trade, insurance, and five
transportation sectors.) Finally, the consum
er bill of goods is arrived at by summing
all values generated by each of the produc
ing sectors.
Four bills of goods were produced using
the process described above. Two were for
historical years: 1963, which is the base and
is the source of all the resulting bridges
(conversion tables between consumption
data shown by category and by producing
industry); and 1970, using the Bureau of
Economic Analysis PCE estimates as of
July 1972 and a projected bridge.4 The
4
other two were for the projection years 1980
and 1985. The bridge or transformation
matrix that redefines product detail into
input-output sector detail was computed in
terms of 1963 dollars. Consequently, all
projections which were made in 1958 dol
lars are inflated to 1963 dollars to be con
sistent with the input-output tables.
Table 26. Changes in personal consumption expenditures by pro
ducing sector: the 15 fastest growing industries between 1970
and 1980
(Based on data in 1 9 6 3 dollars, producers’ value)
Average annual rates of change '
Industry
87
84
85
63
86
97
34
126
99
41
113
32
36
96
10
40
M iscellaneous transportatio n
eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
Ship and boat building and re p a ir
Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to...
rs
Railroad and other transportatio n
eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Air tra n s p o rta tio. n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
P rin tin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
D irectly allocated im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . .
...
C om m unications, except radio and TV
P a in.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Advertising. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
P ap e rb o a rd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Agricultural c h e m ic a.ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
W ater tra n s p o rta tio .n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Stone and clay mining and quarrying..
Cleaning and to ile t p re p a ra tio.....
ns
1970-80
18.1
9.1
6.2
9.0
11.2
8.3
8.2
8.2
11 6
13.0
2.9
12.0
8.6
-2 .7
8.0
5.1
3.7
7.2
1.8
8.1
8.2
7.8
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.2
7.0
7.0
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.8
Compound interest rates between term inal years.
NOTE:
tab le A -2.
Industry numbers
refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix
SOURCE: Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of C om
m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau
of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
Among the structural changes to the
bridge matrix, imports was the most impor
tant factor. Table 26 shows that between
1963 and 1970 directly allocated imports
(EG industry 126)4 grew at a rate of 12
5
percent annually. Growth in per capita in
come encouraged the import of a greater
proportion of various products. In the pro
jections, the level of imports was projected
independently and distributed among the
relevant products. The largest changes in
imports are expected to be in food, shoes,
clothing, and cars. The projected growth of
imports directly allocated to PCE will be
more modest than the 1963-70 rate.
The entire margin category — that is the
cost of moving goods from producer to con
sumer^—accounts for over 22 percent of
45 Imports directly allocated to consumer expendi
tures are those requiring no processing. Imports re
quiring processing, such as steel, are allocated to the
intermediate sector and may be embodied in goods
bought by consumers, such as domestically produced
cars.
44 For a description of the PCE bridge matrix, see
Nancy W. Simon, "Personal Consumption Expenditures
in the 1958 Input-Output Study,” Survey of Current
Business, October 1965, pp. 7-20.
19 63 -70
54
PCE for all the years studied. The propor
tion falls slightly in the projection period,
mostly in the 1980’s. This is consistent with
the projected growth of the three major
components of PCE, specifically the slower
growth of durables in comparison to the
more sustained expansion of services. Dura
bles require transportation and trade while
services have no such margin—producer
and buyer interchange directly, with no
intermediaries.
Trade will continue to cover about 95
percent of the margin although the compo
nents will be growing at different rates —
wholesale faster than the total, and retail
more slowly. Among the transportation mar
gin components, railroad and truck trans
portation will not grow as rapidly as water,
air, and other transportation, and insurance.
This is also due to longrun shifts in the
composition of transportation as well as to
the shift towards imports.
The consumers’ bridge matrix can be
better understood by examining one cate
gory of consumption and the producing
industries which contribute to it (table 27).
The consumption category china, glassware,
Table 27.
tableware, etc. (V.3) contains a variety of
products produced by 10 industries, with
the composition of these industries changing
over time. The most impressive change with
in this product group is that for imports,
which rise from 14 percent of the total in
1963 to 38 percent in 1985. The plastic
products industry is also expected to grow
substantially faster than the total. Offset
ting these increases are the industries that
produce glass products, screw machine pro
ducts, and miscellaneous manufacturing
products. These industries will continue to
grow more slowly than the total china and
glassware category and thus their share
declines.
Gross private domestic investment
Gross private domestic investment
(GPDI) includes private spending for plant
and equipment, residential structures, and
net change in business inventories.4 This
6
investment is projected to total $192.7 bil
lion in 1980 and $224.2 billion in 1985 (in
1963 dollars), or to show an average an
nual growth rate of 4.8 percent for 1968-80
and 3.1 percent for 1980-85. These projected
rates compare with an average annual rate
of 2.6 percent for total private investment
between 1955 and 1968 (table 28).
Projections of investment demand are
made separately for the major components
of investment, as well as separately at the
most detailed level for which data are avail
able. The overall levels of investment are
determined by the macromodel. Within in
vestment, the initial projections of the dis
tribution of investment by detailed category
are based on past trends and relationships.
As the projection process proceeds, the
detailed projections of the composition of
investment are modified on the basis of the
projected rates of growth in industry output
generated by the input-output system. This
is done in order to achieve consistency
between derived industry outputs and the
Consumer purchases of china, glassware, and tableware
by producing industry, 1963, 1970, and projected for 1985
(Based on data in 1 9 63 dollars, producers’ value)
Percent distribution
Industry
Projected
1963
43
44
46
48
57
61
62
92
126
1985
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.0
.
28
1970
100.0
100.0
M illw ork, plywood, and other wood
products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0
Rubber p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
.2
Plastic p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.9
.
Glass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.1
Miscellaneous stone and clay products
...
7.0
.7
Miscellaneous nonferrous m etal products.
Screw m achine p roducts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.7
Other fab ricated m etal products
............
7.6
Miscellaneous m anufactured products
....
17.7
D irectly allocated im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.2
..
1.9
.2
26.7
10.2
7.0
.7
15.4
7.5
12.0
18.3
1.5
.1
27.1
6.2
4.2
.4
9.3
5.8
7.2
38.1
NOTE:
table A-2.
Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix
46Net change in business inventories is not an im
portant factor in long-range projections. Although the
SOURCE: Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of system of accounts used here forces, for consistency, a
Com m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by projection of net inventory change, it is not separately
Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
discussed.
55
Table 28.
Gross private domestic investment, selected years, 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Billions of 1963 dollars
C om ponent
Projected
1955
Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t
......
Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nonresidential (p la n t and
e q u ip m e n t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tru ctu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Producers’ durable equipm ent.
.
R es idential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Change in business in v e n to rie......
s
1958
1959
1963
1965
1968
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
$7 8 .7
72.8
$64.1
65.5
$7 6 .6
72.3
$ 8 5.8
80 .5
$ 1 0 2 .4
94.1
$ 1 0 9 .3
103.4
$ 1 0 7 .4
103.8
$ 1 1 4 .7
109.8
$ 1 2 8 .0
12 3.8
$ 1 9 2 .7
18 1.9
$ 2 2 4 .2
2 1 3 .8
45 .8
18.2
27.5
27.0
5.9
43 .3
18.5
24 .8
22.2
-1 .4
45 .8
18.2
27.7
26.5
4.4
53.9
20.133.8
26 .6
5.3
68.5
25.1
43 .4
25.6
8.3
78 .4
26 .4
52 .0
25 .0
5.9
79 .9
26 .6
53 .3
23 .8
3.6
78.7
25 .3
53 .4
31 .2
4.9
8 6 .5
2 5 .9
6 0 .6
37 .3
4.2
141.0
42 .4
98 .6
4 0 .8
10.8
165.4
49 .4
116.1
4 8 .4
10.4
Average annual rates of change 1
Projected
1955-68
Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t
......
Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N onresidential (p la n t and
e q u ip m e n t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Producers’ durable equipm ent.
R es id en tial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Change in business in v e n to rie......
s
19 65 -72
1 9 72 -80
19 68 -85
1968-80
1980-85
2.6
2.7
3.2
4.0
5.2
4.9
4.3
4.4
4.8
4.8
3.1
3.3
4.2
2.9
5.0
-.6
0
3.4
.4
4.9
5.5
-9 .3
6.3
6.4
6.3
1.1
12.5
4.5
3.8
4.8
4.0
3.4
5.0
4.0
5.5
4.2
5.2
3.2
3.1
3.3
3.5
-.8
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce,
Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
structures is changing; the shift is expected
to result in considerably higher rates of
growth.
level and composition of investment de
mand.4
7
Private investment grew at an average
annual rate of 2.6 percent over the 195568 period and is projected to grow at an
average annual rate of 4.8 percent between
1968 and 1980. These rates compare with
3.8 percent and 4.3 percent for total pri
vate GNP over the same periods. This
higher rate of growth for investment rela
tive to private GNP is explained in large
part by the trend in expenditures for new
construction—residential and nonresidential.
While most components of total invest
ment are projected to increase at rates
consistent with their historical trend, par
ticularly in relationship to private GNP,
residential structures are projected to in
crease during 1968-80 at rates considerably
higher than those attained in recent years.
Also, the composition of nonresidential
4
7 The methodology for investment and other
gories is discussed in detail in appendix A.
Private residential construction. This cate
gory of investment consists of single-family
housing, apartments, additions and altera
tions to existing housing units, and hotels
and motels. The major considerations in pro
jecting the demand for housing over the
long run are the size and age distribution
of the population, changes in income and
family size, and changing preferences. These
factors affect both the level and composi
tion of residential construction activity.
This component of investment is pro
jected to total $40.8 billion in 1980 and
$48.4 billion in 1985 (1963 dollars) (table
28). Compared to the 1968 level of $25.0
billion, this represents a projected average
annual growth rate of 4.2 percent between
1968 and 1980. However, the 1968-72 ex
pansion in residential construction, at an
cateaverage annual rate of 10.5 percent, re
sults in a projected rate of growth of 1.1
56
percent a year for 1972-80. From 1980 to
1985 the projected average rate of growth
is 3.5 percent. These projected rates com
pare with a decline in expenditures for resi
dential structures (in real terms) of 0.6
percent between 1955 and 1968. The pro
jected level of residential construction, par
ticularly for 1980, is consistent with the
level called for in the Nation’s housing
goals.4
8
During 1960-72, a rapid rise in the con
struction of apartment buildings took place.
In this 12-year period multifamily housing
averaged an increase of 13.0 percent a
year while single-family housing grew at
only 2.0 percent a year. However, over the
last few years a considerable slowdown in
the growth of apartments relative to single
family housing has taken place. Thus, while
the level of single-family housing construc
tion in 1969 was lower in real terms than
in 1960, during 1969-72 it increased at an
average rate of 14.1 percent a year. Al
though the projections were not made sep
arately for single and multifamily residen
tial construction, the demographic changes
would indicate strong potential for multi
family units. However, the turnaround of
the last few years makes this far from a
certainty.
In 1972, additions and alterations ac
counted for 13.4 percent of private residen
tial construction. At the same time, non
housekeeping units, hotels and motels,
accounted for 4.1 percent. Given the low
projected increase in the rate of private
residential construction between 1972 and
1980, nonhousekeeping units are expected
to increase somewhat as a share. Addi
tions and alterations are expected to con
tinue their trend as a declining share of
private residential construction.
pollution or safety requirements. Plant and
equipment investment by businesses is pro
jected to total $141.0 billion in 1980 and
$165.4 billion in 1985 (1963 dollars). From
$78.4 billion in 1968, plant and equipment
investment is projected to grow at an aver
age annual rate of 5.0 percent to 1980.
Between 1980 and 1985 the projected rate
of growth is an average of 3.2 percent a
year. The increase and subsequent decline
in the rate of increase follows the projected
changes in private GNP growth over the
period. These projected rates of growth
in plant and equipment investment com
pare with an average annual rate of 4.2
percent for the same category over the
1955-68 period (table 28).
Since 1955 the structures component of
investment has generally increased at a
lower rate than equipment spending. For
example, from 1955 to 1968 nonresidential
construction put in place grew at an aver
age annual rate of 2.9 percent. Over the
same period spending for equipment aver
aged an annual increase of 5.0 percent.
However, between 1968 and 1980 nonresi
dential construction put in place is projected
to increase at an average annual rate of
4.0 percent. This relatively large increase
in the projected growth of expenditures for
structures is chiefly due to a projected rate
of increase for public utilities of 6.4 percent
a year between 1968 and 1980.
Plant. In the input-output system the de
mand for nonresidential construction (plant)
is divided among three sectors. The first,
nonresidential buildings, includes industri
al plant, commercial and office buildings,
religious buildings, educational buildings,
hospital and institutional buildings, and a
category referred to as other nonresiden
tial buildings. Included in this last cate
gory are bus terminal buildings, airport
buildings, movie theaters, and other recrea
tional buildings. Private demand for non
residential building grew at an average
annual rate of 4.2 percent between 1955
and 1968 (table 29). The output of this sec
tor is projected to grow at an average an
nual rate of 3.7 percent between 1968 and
1980. Commercial and office buildings, hos
pitals, and other nonresidential buildings
Plant and equipment. Investment by busi
nesses in plant and equipment is a major
factor influencing the rate of real growth in
the economy. Firms invest in plant and
equipment in order to expand productive
capacity and to bring newer technologies
into use as well as increasingly to meet
48See the Housing and Urban Development Act of
1968 and the Second Annual Housing Report, updated
by subsequent annual reports of the Department of
Housing and Urban Development.
57
Table 29. Private construction, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Millions of 1963 dollars
Projected
Com ponent
1955
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1958
1965
1963
1959
1968
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
$ 4 5 ,2 0 0 $ 4 0 ,7 0 0 $ 4 4 ,7 0 0 $ 4 6 ,7 0 0 $ 5 0 ,7 0 0 $ 5 1 ,4 0 0 $ 5 0 ,4 0 0 $ 5 6 ,5 0 0 $ 6 3 ,2 0 0 $ 8 3 ,2 0 0 $ 9 7 ,8 0 0
Residential s tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12 New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
109 Brokers’ com m issions on sale
of structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13 0 N et purchases of used
s tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 7 ,0 0 0
2 6 ,1 0 9
2 2 ,2 0 0
2 2 ,0 3 8
2 6 ,5 0 0
2 5 ,94 1
2 6 ,6 0 0
2 6 ,1 7 6
2 5 ,6 0 0
2 5 ,2 7 0
2 5 ,0 0 0
2 4 ,5 9 0
2 3 ,8 0 0
23,601
3 1 ,2 0 0
30,91 7
3 7 ,3 0 0
3 6 ,9 5 3
4 0 ,8 0 0
4 0 ,4 3 3
4 8 ,4 0 0
4 7 ,9 6 4
1,188
1,1 6 0
1,136
1,069
1,039
1,181
1,019
1,409
1,577
1,591
1,888
- 297
-9 9 8
- 577
- 64 5
710
-7 7 1
N onresidential s tru c tu re.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13
N onresidential buildings
...
14
Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16
All othe r co nstruction ...1
109 B roke rs 'com m is sion s on sale
of s tru c tu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
130 N et purchases of used
s tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18,20 0
17,88 8
9,117
4 ,5 5 3
4,2 1 7
1 8 ,5 0 0
1 8 ,45 6
9 ,7 2 8
4 ,8 8 9
3,8 3 9
1 8 ,2 0 0
1 8 ,26 4
9 ,689
4 ,6 2 4
3,951
2 0 ,1 0 0
2 0 ,0 0 5
1 1 ,6 6 9
4 ,6 7 6
3 ,660
2 5 ,1 0 0
2 5 ,0 2 0
1 5 ,79 7
5,617
3,6 0 6
2 6 ,4 0 0
2 6 ,3 7 2
1 5 ,5 4 9
7 ,5 4 8
3,276
2 6 ,6 0 0
2 6 ,6 0 0
1 5 ,3 5a
8 ,016
3,231
2 5 ,3 0 0
2 5 ,3 0 8
1 4 ,31 0
7,981
3,017
2 5 ,9 0 0
2 5 ,8 8 7
14,101
8 ,6 7 5
3,111
4 2 ,4 0 0
4 3 ,3 5 8
2 3 ,9 4 8
1 5 ,92 5
2 ,4 8 5
4 9 ,4 0 0
4 9 ,3 5 0
2 8 ,6 0 4
1 8 ,35 4
2 ,3 9 2
152
167
164
155
150
134
129
119
117
212
247
160
-1 2 3
- 22 7
-6 0
-7 0
106
- 129
-1 2 7
- 104
-1 7 0
-1 9 8
-
-
- 820 - 1,126 - 1 , 2 2 9
-1 ,2 2 4 -1 ,4 5 2
Average annual rates of change 2
Projected
19 55 -68
19 65 -72
19 72 -80
1968-85
19 68 -80
19 80 -85
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.0
3.2
3.5
3.9
4.1
3.3
Residential s tru c tu re.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12 New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
109 Brokers’ com m issions on sale
of s tru c tu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
- .6
- .5
5.5
5.6
1.1
1.1
4.0
4.0
4.2
4.2
3.5
3.5
N onresiden tial stru c tu re...................
s
New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13
N onresidential buildings
...
14
Public u tilitie .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
16
All othe r construction > . . . .
109 B rokers’ com m issions on sale
of s tru c tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
—
6.1
.1
2.8
2.5
3.5
2.9
3.0
4.2
4.0
-1 .9
.4
.5
- 1.6
6.4
- 2.1
6.4
6.3
6.8
7.9
-2 .8
3.8
3.8
3.7
5.4
- 1.8
4.0
4.0
3.7
6.4
- 2.3
3.1
3.1
3.6
2.9
- .8
- 1.0
-
7.7
3.7
3.9
3.1
3.4
1 Includes farm residential construction. In the national incom e a c Adm inistration and the Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, U.S. D ep a rtm en t of
counts, farm residential is not included here but is included in residentialCom m erce, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; p ro
jectio n s by Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
construction.
2 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
NOTE: Numbers fo r com ponents refer to sectoring plan shown in ap pen
dix
SOURCE: H istorical data from the Dom estic and Intern atio n a l Business tab le A-2.
0
are expected to be the faster growing com
ponents of this sector, although hospital
construction in particular is not expected
to grow nearly as fast as it has in the past.
A second category of private nonresidential construction is public utilities con
struction which includes railroad, telephone
and telegraph, electric utility, gas utility,
and petroleum pipeline construction. Pri
vate demand for this sector grew at an
average annual rate of 4.0 percent between
1955 and 1968. Between 1968 and 1980the
09
private demand for public utility construc
tion is projected to grow at an average
annual rate of 6.4 percent. A significant
factor in the higher growth is the continu
ing need for ever-increasing capacity in al
most all of segments of the public utility
sector but most particularly for electric
utilities. Over the 1955-68 period electric
utility construction increased at an average
annual rate of 5.5 percent, raising its share
from 41.4 to 49.9 percent of total private
utility construction. Over the 1965-72
58
period, on the other hand, electric utilities
construction grew at 11.2 percent per year;
thus, by 1972, electric utilities’ share had
increased further to 60.4 percent. This com
ponent of public utility construction is ex
pected to become even larger by 1980.
The third private nonresidential con
struction sector is "all other nonresidential
construction” which includes nonresidential
farm construction, oil and gas well drilling
and exploration, and all other private con
struction. This last category includes all
privately owned projects which are not
classified elsewhere such as streets, air
fields, playgrounds, etc. This sector’s out
put declined at an average annual rate of
1.9 percent over the 1955-68 period. This
decline is projected to continue between
1968 and 1985, reflecting continued de
clines in farm employment as well as the
assumption used in these projections that
a large part of the increases in energy re
quirements would be met from imports—as
a consequence oil and gas well drilling was
not projected to expand.
Equipment. Expenditures for producers’
durable equipment (PDE) are projected to
increase from $52.0 billion in 1968 to $98.6
billion in 1980 (1963 dollars). Between 1980
and 1985, PDE is projected to increase to
$116.1 billion. These projections reflect an
annual rate of growth of 5.5 percent be
tween 1968 and 1980 and 3.3 percent for
the 1980-85 period. From 1955 to 1968,
PDE expenditures increased at an average
Table 30. Producers’ durable equipment by producing industry, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
M illions of 1963 dollars, purchaser prices
Industry
Projected
1958
1955
30
43
60
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
n
]
72
73
74
75
78
79
80
81
83
84
85
86
87
89
91
92
99
.
Other fu rn itu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Rubber p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fabricated structural m e ta l
...........
Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to rs
...
.
Farm m achinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Construction, m ining, and oil field
m ach in ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M a terial handling e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . .
.
M etalw orking m a chinery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...........
Special industry m a c h in e ry
General industrial m achin ery. . . . . . . . . .
Computers and peripheral equipm ent
Typewriters and other office
m a c h in e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Service in dustry m a chin es..................
Electric transm ission e q u ip m e n t
....
Electrical industrial a p p a ra tu.......
s
Radio and television se ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Telephone and telegraph ap p aratu s ..
Other electronic co m m unication
eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M o tor veh icles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ship and boat building and repair....
Railroad and other transportatio n
eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Miscellaneous transportatio n
eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Medical and dental in s tru m e n ts
.....
Photographic eq uipm ent and
s u p p lie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M iscellaneous m anufactured
p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Com m unications, except radio
and T V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$7 6 1
11
513
398
1,720
$
760
14
561
448
1,788
1959
$
1963
1965
1968
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
838
15
482
40 9
1,831
$ 1 ,1 2 6
18
536
388
1,900
$ 1 ,2 2 8
24
797
391
2 ,227
$ 1 ,3 7 5
25
877
723
2,9 0 5
$1,48 1
19
893
799
2,9 9 8
$ 1 ,4 0 0
24
88 3
911
2,805
$ 1 ,5 3 4
32
871
87 0
3,465
$ 2 ,4 6 2
32
1,572
1 ,607
5 ,014
$ 2 ,7 1 6
35
1,746
1,897
5,847
1,694
552
1,682
1,814
1,278
515
1,431
49 0
1,307
1,629
1,133
707
1,698
557
1,358
1,771
1,117
751
1,758
665
1,668
2,0 2 4
1,382
1,279
2,1 0 5
877
2,2 2 9
2 ,6 7 5
1,720
1,745 '
2 ,2 6 3
923
2 ,4 9 3
2 ,5 6 0
1,732
2 ,8 1 3
2 ,455
980
2 ,283
2,469
1,790
3,422
2,4 9 2
922
1,745
2,2 8 4
1,625
2,9 3 5
2,8 5 0
1,037
1,952
2,5 7 4
1,829
3,326
3 ,970
1,702
3,427
3 ,992
2 ,927
9 ,314
4 ,5 3 0
2 ,248
3 ,789
4.114
3,604
13,02 9
186
795
1,133
454
89
634
255
811
1,110
444
106
757
262
881
1,172
48 5
125
834
335
1 ,110
1,275
584
112
906
43 3
1,392
1,454
744
161
1,150
623
1,675
1,191
644
186
1,304
60 2
1,845
1,267
647
171
1,870
561
1,904
1,197
631
175
1,669
636
2,212
1,297
703
142
1,225
1,073
3 ,526
2,1 5 7
1,2 7 8
337
3 ,574
1,368
4 ,1 5 0
2,649
1,449
380
4 ,1 9 3
386
46
4,925
130
292
460
55
3,1 2 2
263
484
527
54
4 ,0 9 5
602
452
904
96
5 ,6 6 3
44 5
344
1,099
176
7,041
914
488
1,539
197
8 ,5 7 4
2 ,2 8 9
547
1,643
242
7 ,9 0 5
1,368
60 8
1,592
22 3
9 ,5 1 4
721
634
1,263
169
12 ,40 7
1,028
830
3,2 2 8
468
14,474
4 ,0 9 4
1,267
3,937
619
15,93 4
5,414
1,393
1,314
894
935
952
1,942
1,8 8 0
1,696
1,984
1,862
2,9 9 8
3,149
69
164
82
156
89
168
169
269
227
320
370
427
508
46 2
549
487
645
520
1,061
1,170
1,398
1,370
88
80
93
196
287
434
661
763
824
1,5 9 3
2 ,349
300
355
393
495
586
700
725
822
1,015
1,070
1,197
340
405
446
486
615
697
1,002
893
653
1,813
2,1 4 5
See foo tn o te s at end o f tab le.
59
Table 30. Producers’ durable equipment by producing industry, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985—Continued
Average annual rates of change 1
Industry
Projected
1955-68
30
43
60
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
71
72
73
74
75
78
79
80
81
83
84
85
86
87
89
91
92
99
Other fu r n itu r.e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
..
Rubber p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fabricated structural m e ta l
...........
Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to...
rs
..
Farm m achin ery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Construction, mining, and oil field
m a ch in ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M ateria l handling eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . .
..
M etalw orking m achin ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Special industry m a c h in e ...........
ry
General industrial m achin ery. . . . . . . . . .
Com puters and peripheral equipm ent
Typew riters and other office
m a c h in e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Service industry m achin es
.............
Electric transm ission e q u ip m e....
nt
E lectrical industrial a p p a ra tu s
.......
..
Radio and television se ts. . . . . . . . . . . . .
Telephone and telegraph a p p a ra tu s ..
O ther electronic com m unication
eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M o tor v e h icles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ship and boat building and rep a ir....
Railroad and other transportatio n
eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Miscellaneous transportatio n
eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Medical and dental in s tru m en.....
ts
Photographic eq uipm ent and
s u p p lie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Miscellaneous m anufactured
p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Com m unications, except radio
and T V . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1965-72
1972-80
1968-80
1980-85
4.7
6.8
4.2
4.7
4.1
3.2
4.2
1.3
12.1
6.5
6.1
.1
7.7
8.0
4.7
4.1
1.9
4.1
5.8
4.2
5.0
2.0
5.0
6.9
4.7
2.0
1.8
2.1
3.4
3.1
2.3
4.0
3.1
2.7
2.4
13.9
4.4
2.4
-1 .9
-.5
.9
9.7
4.2
6.4
7.3
5.6
6.1
13.7
4.2
5.4
2.5
2.8
4.4
9.4
4.8
5.2
2.7
3.8
4.5
10.5
2.7
5.7
2.0
.6
4.2
6.9
9.8
5.9
.4
2.7
5.8
5.7
5.6
6.8
-1 .6
-.8
-1 .8
.9
6.8
6.0
6.6
7.8
11.4
14.3
4.7
5.5
4.8
4.9
4.3
7.1
4.6
6.4
5.1
5.9
5.1
8.8
5.0
3.3
4.2
2.5
2.4
3.2
11.2
11.8
4.4
24.7
4 .9
2.0
-.6
8.4
1.7
7.9
12.4
13.5
1.9
18.9
5.4
5.7
7.0
3.7
5.2
5.7
6.4
7.5
4.5
5.0
7.3
4.1
5.8
1.9
5.7
1.9
2.8
-.6
6.1
3.1
4.0
1.0
13.7
7.6
16.1
7.2
6.4
10.7
8.1
7.1
9.2
8.8
5.7
3.2
13.1
16.3
8.6
10.4
11.4
8.1
6.7
8.2
.7
3.2
3.6
2.3
5.7
.8
13.6
6.8
8.3
3.4
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
projections by Bureau o f Labor Statistics.
SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, converted to 19 63 dollars by Bureau of Labor S tatistics;
annual rate of 5.0 percent in real terms
(table 28).
For the 40 industries producing produc
ers’ durable equipment, 1968-80 projected
growth rates range from 2.0 percent a year
for rubber products to 11.4 percent for
photographic equipment (which includes
photocopying equipment). (See table 30.)
Computers and peripheral equipment is
expected to increase at an average an
nual rate of 10.5 percent between 1968
and 1980. In addition to photographic equip
ment and computers, transportation equip
ment (primarily trailers), telephone and
telegraph apparatus, and medical and den
1968-85
NOTE:
tab le A-2.
Industry
numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in app
tal instruments are expected to increase at
rates well above the average for all PDE
between 1968 and 1980. The projected
average annual rates of growth are 9.2
percent for miscellaneous transportation
equipment, 8.8 percent for telephone and
telegraph apparatus, and 8.8 percent for
medical and dental instruments.
While industries producing PDE are
largely manufacturing industries, the de
mand for PDE comes from all industries.
Thus, the changing composition of PDE is
related to industry growth rates and chang
ing technology in the economy as a whole,
not just the manufacturing industries that
60
produce capital equipment. As a result,
the faster growing types of PDE are asso
ciated with industries which are gaining in
relative importance and with industries
which are substituting newer types of equip
ment in their operations.
During the 1955-68 period, electronic
components and aircraft were among the
five fastest growing types of investment
goods. For the 1968-80 period, the elec
tronic components industry is projected to
increase at an average annual rate of 7.5
percent, down from an average annual rate
of 11.8 percent over the 1955-68 period.
This industry produces magnetic recording
tape. The demand for this item is expected
to more than keep pace with the overall
growth of PDE but to increase at a slower
rate than during the 1955-68 period.
The aircraft and parts industry is ex
pected to grow at less than the rate for all
PDE over the 1968-80 period but to more
than keep pace with the expansion in pri
vate GNP. The projected rate of 5.0percent
a year between 1968 and 1980 compares
with an average annual rate of 24.7 percent
over the 1955-68 period. This is not the
slowdown it appears to be at first glance.
In the past, this investment item has ex
perienced extremely large yearly changes,
both increases and decreases. Between 1968
and 1971 investment in aircraft showed an
average annual rate of decline of 31.8 per
cent a year. As a consequence, the pro
jected average annual rate of increase is
21.3 percent when calculated between 1971
and 1980, compared to the 5.0 percent
over 1968-80.
In addition, investment expenditures for
construction, mining and oil field machinery,
farm machinery, general industrial machin
ery, and motor vehicles and trucks will
expand, but less rapidly than PDE.
N et exports
Net exports in the input-output system
reflect the balance on goods and services
as reported in the U. S. balance of pay
ments accounts. Net exports represent the
excess of exports over imports in mer
chandise trade, military transactions, tra
vel and transportation, investment income,
and other services. The following section
describes the assumptions underlying the
projection of net exports, their treatment
in the input-output system, the projections
of U. S. imports and exports, and the impli
cations of these for the U. S. balance of
payments.
Assumptions. In projecting net exports,
several assumptions were made in addition
to those underlying the projections as a
whole. Income flows to foreigners from their
investments in the United States grew
sharply during the late 1960’s. It was felt
that this growth in income outflows was a
relatively short-term anomaly in the balance
of payments. Thus, it was assumed that
investment income flows to foreigners would
slow to the longer run historical rate of
growth by the mid-1970’s and remain at
that rate for the rest of the projection
period.
Second, imports of both crude and re
fined petroleum were assumed to follow pro
jections developed by the U. S. Department
of the Interior.4 Implicit in this Interior
9
Department study is the assumption that
U. S. refinery capacity would not expand
by a significant amount during the 1970’s
due to long lags in refinery construction. As
a result, 90 percent of the increases in
petroleum imports between 1970-80 were
assumed to be in the form of refined petro
leum products. After 1980 the Interior De
partment study assumed that refinery capa
city in the United States would start to
increase as refineries started in the mid1970’s came into operation. Thus, petroleum
import increases between 1980 and 1985
were split equally between the crude petro
leum industry and the refined petroleum
products industry. This assumption, of
course, has been brought into serious ques
tion since initially made. For that reason
BLS is currently developing 1980 and 1985
projections with different energy assump
tions.
Finally, it was assumed that over the
latter half of the projection period (roughly
1978-85) the United States would experi
ence a favorable balance of trade in goods
(U.
61
49
S.
United States Energy Through the Year 2000
Department of the Interior, December 1972).
Table 31.
U .S. exports by major sector, 19 6 3 ,19 70 , and projected for 1980 and 1985
Percent distribution
M illions of 1963 dollars
Sector
Projected
1963
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.......
Agriculture, forestry, and fis h e rie s
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T ra n s p o rta tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C om m unication and public u tilitie s
.......
T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta ......
te
Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Governm ent e n te rp ris e.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dum m y industries 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Special industries 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1970
198C
Projected
1985
$3 2 ,6 7 8 $ 5 2 ,4 6 7 $ 1 0 4 ,5 0 0 $ 1 3 3 ,4 2 5
3,014
536
2
17,107
3,141
105
1,819
45 9
762
91
317
367
4,9 5 8
3,3 2 0
860
3
2 8 ,4 3 3
5,038
285
3,1 0 8
802
1,296
108
557
456
8,201
5,731
1,582
8
5 6 ,3 4 2
9,541
824
5,824
1,590
2,532
176
1,110
1,240
18,000
Average annual rates of change 1
6,380
1,935
8
6 9 ,81 5
11,771
1,118
7,207
1,983
3,131
197
1,500
1,680
2 6 ,70 0
Projected
1963
1970
1980
1985
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
7.0
6.4
7.2
5.0
9.2
1.6
.0
52.4
9.6
.3
5.6
1.4
2.3
.3
1.0
1.1
15.2
6.3
1.6
.0
54.2
9.6
.5
5.9
1.5
2.5
.2
1.1
.9
15.6
5.5
1.5
.0
53.9
9.1
.-8
5.6
1.5
2.4
.2
1.1
1.2
17.2
4.8
1.5
.0
52.3
8.8
.8
5.4
1.5
2.4
.2
1.1
1.3
20.0
1.4
7.0
6.0
7.5
7.0
15.4
8.0
8.3
7.9
2.5
8.4
3.2
7.5
4.5
5.6
6.8
6.2
5.8
9.5
5.8
6.2
6.0
4.1
6.8
9.1
8.2
5.6
6.3
10.3
7.1
6.6
11.2
6.5
7.1
6.9
5.0
7.2
10.5
8.2
2.2
4.1
0
4.3
4.3
6.3
4.3
4.5
4.3
2.3
6.2
6.3
8.2
19 63 -70 19 70 -85 19 70 -80 1980-85
3 Special industries include governm ent, rest of the world, households,
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
2 Three synthetic industries which represent an aggregation of co m and inventory valuation adjustm ent.
m odities or services originating in other industries but whose use is related
to a common activity for which in form ation on consum ption is generally SOURCE: Historical data com piled and converted to 19 63 dollars by
available only fo r the entire group. These three industries are 1) business Bureau of Labor S tatistics from data prepared by Bureau of Econom ic A naly
travel, en tertain m en t, and gifts, 2 ) o ffic e supplies, and 3) scrap, used and sis and Bureau of th e Census, U. S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce; projections
by Bureau o f Labor Statistics.
secondhand. For more detail see appendix A.
and services. However, as will be discussed
later, this still implies a merchandise trade
deficit, largely because of the very large
projected increase in the importation of
petroleum.
turnaround was due primarily to sales of
grain to Russia. Even if these sales con
tinue at their present level or with some
modest growth, it is expected that agricul
tural exports will again decline as a percent
of total exports.
Between 1970, and 1980 exports are
expected to increase by more than $52 bil
lion or at a rate of 7.2 percent, slightly
higher than the 1963-70 rate of growth.
Those sectors which are projected to grow
much more rapidly than the average are
communications and public utilities (pro
jected 1970-80 rate of growth of 11.2 per
cent) and the special industries sector (pro
jected rate of 8.2 percent). In the first
sector the high growth rate is explained by
high projected rates of growth in interna
tional communications networks, both tele
phone and telegraph, which are expected to
be spurred on by the dissemination of ad
vanced communications technology (for ex
ample, COMSAT). The communications in
dustry (which includes all communications
except for radio and television) is expected
to grow by 11.5 percent a year between
1970 and 1980. In the special industries
sector the high growth rate is caused by
U. S. exports. Total U. S. exports grew by
approximately $20 billion (1963 dollars)
between 1963 and 1970 — or at an average
annual rate of 7.0 percent. (See table 31.)
During this period, 7 of the 13 sectors
under consideration increased their share
of total exports. The manufacturing sec
tor increased its share from 52.4 per
cent of total exports in 1963 to 54.2
percent in 1970. This was due mainly
to large increases in exports of com
puters and peripheral equipment and
electronic components, which were rela
tively minor industries in 1963 in terms
of exports. The sector which underwent the
largest decline during this period was agri
culture, forestry, and fisheries. Its share of
exports declined from 9.2 percent in 1963
to 6.3 percent in 1970 and 6.1 in 1971. In
1972, agricultural exports reversed their
trend and rose to $4.1 billion, approximate
ly 7.2 percent of total U. S. exports. This
62
expected large growth in income returns
from U. S. investment in foreign countries.
Although high expectations are held for
a few industries (most notably the computer
industry, projected to grow by 12.5 percent
a year between 1970 and 1980, and the
electronic components industry, projected
to grow at a rate of 7.6 percent), U. S.
exports of manufactured goods are expected
to grow at a steadily decreasing rate
throughout the projection period. By 1980,
manufacturing exports are projected to ac
count for 53.9 percent of total exports, down
from 54.2 percent in 1970. The agriculture,
forestry, and fisheries sector, and the min
ing sector are expected to continue to have
a declining share of overall exports during
the 1970-80 period. All other sectors are
expected to hold a roughly equivalent posi
tion in total exports to 1980.
Between 1980 and 1985 a slowdown in
growth of U. S. exports is expected. In
creases of approximately $29 billion (1963
dollars) are projected over this 5-year
period with an implied rate of growth of
5.0 percent a year. Again, higher than aver
age rates of growth are expected in the
communications industry and in investment
income flows. Manufacturing is projected to
lag even further behind, decreasing its share
of total exports to 52.3 percent by 1985.
The foreign demand for electronic compo
nents is still expected to be high during
this period (the projected rate of growth of
exports in this industry is 5.8 percent a
year) while demand for computers is pro
jected to decline to about the average
growth rate of exports.
U.S. imports. Imports in the U.S. inputoutput framework are split between those
items which are intermediate goods in the
production process and those items which
go directly to the final user. For example,
in table 32, the value of imports in the
manufacturing sector represents only those
manufactured imports (such as steel) which
are intermediate to other goods. Other
manufactured imports appear in the final
demand categories (watches in personal
consumption expenditures and some im
ported trucks in gross private domestic
investment, for example).5
0
Between 1963 and 1970 total U. S. im
ports grew by more than $22 billion (1963
dollars), or at an average annual rate of
7.9 percent. Of the 17 major sectors (in
cluding the 5 final demand categories) un
der consideration, 8 grew more rapidly than
imports as a whole. These categories with
rapid growth include the special industries
sector (mainly rest-of-the-world industry —
chiefly income flows), communication and
public utilities, private investment, person
al consumption, and reexports. Only one
sector, other services, underwent an abso
lute decline from 1963 to 1970. The remain
der of the sectors grew more slowly than
the total; most were very close to the over
all growth rate with the exception of the
agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector
(with an annual growth rate of 1.0 percent)
and the mining sector (1.9 percent).
Between 1970 and 1980, total imports
(merchandise and other) are projected to
grow at the slightly lower rate of 7.6 per
cent a year. This represents an expected
increase in imports of about $53 billion (in
1963 dollars) over 1970 levels. Of this in
crease, almost $11 billion is expected to
occur in the oil industries: crude oil in the
mining sector and refined oil in the manu
facturing sector. Due to the assumptions
concerning the distribution between crude
and refined oil imports during this period,
most of the projected increases fall in the
manufactured petroleum products industry.
For this reason, the manufacturing sector,
which has maintained its share of total im
ports at approximately 41 percent over the
historical period, is projected to increase
its share to more than 46 percent by 1980.
The other sector projected to undergo sharp
growth between 1970 and 1980 is the com
munication and public utilities sector, which
is projected to grow at an annual rate of
12.0 percent a year. This high rate of
growth is due mainly to large projected
increases in natural gas imports (liquified
petroleum gases). The projected rate of
growth of imports in this industry is 17.1
percent a year between 1970 and 1980.
50
A more detailed discussion of this method of classi
fication is given in appendix A.
63
Table 32. U .S. imports by major sector, 19 6 3 ,19 70 , and projected for 1980 and 1985
Percent distribution
Millions of 1963 dollars
Sector
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Projected
Projected
1963
1970
1980
Average annual rates of change 1
1985
$2 6 ,9 3 5 $ 4 9 ,3 1 4 $ 1 01 ,84 1 $ 1 2 5 ,9 6 9
Projected
1963-70 1970-85 19 7 0 -8 0 1980-85
1963
1970
1980
1985
100.0
10 0.0
10 0.0
10 0.0
7.9
6.4
7.6
4.3
.
Agriculture, forestry, and fis h e rie .s. . . . .
M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
.
T ra n s p o rta tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C om m unication and public u tilitie .s. . . . .
T ra d e ...............................................
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta ......
te
.
O ther services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
G overnm ent e n te rp ris e.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Dum m y industries 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Special industries 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S ubtotal, industries 1 -1 3.4 . . . . . . . . . . .
.
1,039
1,878
1,116
2,147
1,484
3,647
1.603
5117
3.9
7.0
2.3
4.4
1.5
3.6
1.3
4.1
1.0
1.9
2.5
5.9
2.9
5.5
1.6
7.0
10,91 0
1,776
144
26
145
133
244
587
924
17,80 6
2 0 ,23 7
2,671
384
42
235
77
392
1,112
3,363
3 1 ,7 7 6
4 7 ,0 7 0
4,7 8 7
1,190
68
337
89
651
2,061
6,0 0 0
6 7 ,38 4
57 832
6 497
1672
80
394
101
786
3,056
8 ,000
8 5 ,13 8
40 .5
6.6
.5
.1
.5
.5
.9
2.2
3.4
66.1
41 .0
5.4
.8
.1
.5
.2
.8
2.2
6.8
64.4
46 .2
4.7
1.2
.1
.3
.1
.6
2.0
5.9
66 .2
4 5 .9
5.2
1.3
.1
.3
.1
.6
2.4
6.4
67 .6
9.3
6.0
15.0
7.1
7.1
-7 .5
7.0
9.6
20 .5
8.7
7.3
6.1
10.3
4.4
3.5
1.8
4.8
7.0
6.0
6.8
8.8
6.0
12.0
5.0
3.7
1.5
5.2
6.4
5.9
7.8
4.2
6.3
7.1
3.3
3.2
2.6
3.9
8.2
5.9
4.8
Personal co n su m p tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Private in v estm en.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Reexports 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal G overnm ent 5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tate and local g overnm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6,0 0 4
187
286
2,649
3
1 2 ,77 9
489
593
3,672
5
2 7 ,34 4
396
1,110
5,597
10
32 ,34 8
405
1,500
6 ,566
12
22.3
.7
1.1
9.8
25.9
1.0
1.2
7.5
0
26 .8
.4
1.1
5.5
0
25.7
.3
1.2
5.2
11.4
14.7
11.0
4.9
7.6
6.4
-1 .3
6.4
4.0
6.0
7.9
-2 .2
6.5
4.3
7.2
3.4
.5
6.2
3.2
3.8
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
2 See fo o tn o te 2, tab le 31.
3 See fo o tn o te 3, tab le 31.
4 Reexports are item s im ported to the United S tates and then returned
to the country of origin because they cannot be sold or need repair, for
exam ple.
5 Approxim ately tw o-thirds of Federal Government purchases of im ports
are item s purchased abroad for use by U.S. m ilitary bases. The rem aining
Only one other sector is projected to
grow more rapidly than the average be
tween 1970 and 1980: imports directly allo
cated to personal consumption, which are
projected to grow at an average annual
rate of 7.9 percent. This is consistent with
the strong growth tendencies projected over
this period for disposable personal income
and with the trend over the last few years
for importing manufactured consumer
goods.
The remainder of the sectors are pro
jected to grow at rates less than the over
all rate of growth in imports between 1970
and 1980. For the most part, this is a func
tion of the projected growth in the oil and
gas industries which is large enough to
have a disproportionate effect on the over
all projected rate of growth in imports.
Aside from these growth-oriented industries,
the rates of growth and relative shares of
the remaining sectors are projected to ad
here quite closely to historical trends.
0
0
. one-third is accounted for by income returns on U.S. Governm ent
held by foreigners and U .S . Government purchases of
foreigners.
SOURCE: Historical data compiled and converted to 19 63 dollar
Bureau of Labor S tatistics from data prepared by Bureau of Econom ic An
sis and Bureau of the Census, U.S. D epartm ent of Commerce; projections by
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Between 1980 and 1985, the growth rate
of imports is expected to decline sharply to
4.3 percent a year in line with projected
downturns in the rate of growth of GNP as
a whole. This still represents an expected
increase of over $24 billion during this
period, about $5.3 billion of which comes
from the oil and gas industries, resulting
in a level of $21.6 billion of petroleum im
ports (1963 collars) by 1985. The trans
portation sector also is expected to experien9e greater than average gains due to
expanded use of air transportation as a
method of transferring freight. (Purchases
of air freight from foreign airlines are pro
jected to grow by 10.1 percent a year be
tween 1980 and 1985.)
In summary, imports are expected to
slow only slightly over the 1970’s from their
historical trend growth rate. However, as
the growth of GNP declines sharply in the
early 1980’s, so also will the growth of im
ports. The major growth areas for imports
64
over this period are expected to be crude
oil, manufactured oil, gas utilities, and air
transportation (reflecting in partthe energy
assumptions built into these projections).
tions of the currencies of the U. S. major
trading partners will be not to reverse this
trend but merely to slow the rate of growth
of the merchandise trade deficit. At the
same time high rates of growth in income
from U. S. investments abroad are pro
jected to more than offset the deficit in
merchandise trade, resulting in a surplus
in the balance on goods and services.
All trends seem to mark the gradual
entrance of the United States into a new
phase in its international relationships, that
of a mature creditor nation. More and more,
as the United States loses its comparative
advantage in merchandise items, it may
expect to export larger amounts of invest
ment capital and entrepreneurial ability,
becoming more services-oriented in its inter
national trade.
Implications for the U. S. balance of pay
ments. Both historically and during the
projected period, merchandise imports are
becoming a larger percent of total imports
while merchandise exports are becoming
smaller proportional to total exports. The
implications are clear: the United States
may be expected to experience relatively
larger merchandise trade deficits through
out the 1970’s and early 1980’s (table 33),
particularly under the assumption used in
these projections that energy needs will be
met from petroleum imports. The major
effect of dollar devaluations and revalua
Table 33.
U.S. balance of payments by major component, selected years 1963- 72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
M illions of 1963 dollars
Projected
Com ponent
1970
..
Merchandise trade balance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 5,224
E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 ,27 2
Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,048
M ilitary transactions, n e. .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 2,304
Travel and transportatio n, n e t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 1,312
Investm ent income, n e t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 .153
4,018
U.S. direct investm ent a b ro a.d. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
1,521
Other U.S. investm ent a b ro a d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1,386
Foreign investm ent in United S ta te s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
179
Other services, n e t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Balance on goods and services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
$ -1 ,8 4 7
3 4 ,2 0 6
3 6 ,0 5 3
- 2 ,300
- 1,859
6.372
7,558
2 ,7 5 2
3,938
591
3,469
5,940
1972
1971
$ 1,612
3 4 ,7 8 2
3 3 ,1 7 0
- 2 ,8 2 0
- 1,088
5.294
6,6 5 3
2,945
4,304
471
1963
1980
1
1985
$ -3 ,1 0 5
37 ,94 8
4 1 ,0 5 3
- 2,576
- 2,0 2 8
5,614
7,745
2,592
4 ,723
725
$ -9 ,6 5 1
8 3 .1 2 4
9 2 ,7 7 5
- 2 ,3 0 0
2 13,358
2 19,151
- 1,361
957
$ -4 ,7 5 8
6 6 ,0 4 4
70,80 2
- 2,300
6,3 0 0
7,2 0 0
Average annual rates of change 3
Projected
1963-70
Merchandise exports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Merchandise im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Nonm erchandise e x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nonm erchandise im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
1970-80
19 80 -85
6.6
10.0
7.9
7.3
6.7
7.9
8.1
5.4
4.7
56
5.5
4.1
2 These figures represent the net of travel and transportatio n, invest
' These figures represent U.S. im ports as they were projected in the
aggregate for control purposes. Im ports generated w ithin the inpu t-output m ent incom e, and other services. Due to the trea tm en t of these item s in
m atrix are then balanced to sum to these controls (see appendix A). How.- inpu t-output analysis it was im possible to separate them in the projected
years.
ever, it was not possible to bring the 1 9 80 generated im port levels into
balance with aggregate projections w ith o u t introducing what were considered
3 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
to be unrealistic strains into the industry-level projections. T herefore, for
SOURCE. H isto rical data from U.S Departm ent of Com m erce, converted
19 80 , generated im ports are $3 .6 billion higher than the projected balance
to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of
on goods and services presented here. T he generated level of im ports in the
Labor S tatistics.
1985 table is in balance with 1985 projected im ports.
65
Table 34. Changes in State and local government purchases of goods and services, selected periods, actual and projected, 1955-85
(Based on data in 1963 dollars)
Average annual rates of change 1
Projected
Category
19 55 -68
1965-72
19 72 -80
1968-85
19 68 -80
1 9 80 -85
State and local governm ent purchases of
goods and s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.6
5.4
5.5
4.7
5.1
3.8
E d u c a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
O th er. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.7
5.5
4.9
5.8
4.1
6.4
3.5
5.5
4.0
5.8
2.2
4 .6
' Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCE:
m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by Bureau
Historical data based on data from U.S. Departm ent of Corn- of Labor S tatistics; projections by Bureau of Labor S ta tistics .
drop to a 2.2 percent annual rate in the
1980 to 1985 period. At the same time, the
5.5-percent rate of growth for other pur
chases of goods and services in 195568 is expected to continue to 1985. In fact,
the rate of increase accelerates to 5.8 per
cent annually to 1980, and then subsides
to a yearly rate of 4.6 percent during 198085. This represents a substantial increase
in the purchases of goods and services for
a wide variety of health, welfare, recrea
tional, and general government functions
which far outweigh the expected smaller
share of State and local government ex
penditures for highways. Highways repre
sent a second category of State and local
activity where future growth is projected
at a rate much lower than in the past.
State and local government
Although still projected to grow more
rapidly than GNP, State and local govern
ment purchases of goods and services are
expected to increase at a slower rate than
in the past. Total purchases by States and
localities rose at an average annual rate
of 5.6 percent between 1955 and 1968; in
the 1968 to 1985 period these purchases
are projected to advance at an annual rate
of 4.7 percent. The rate of growth is 5.1
percent annually to 1980, with a decelera
tion to 3.8 percent between 1980 and 1985
(table 34).
Underlying the slowdown in the rate of
growth for State and local government pur
chases are major changes in the composi
tion of these purchases. Education has tradi
tionally been the largest single function of
State and local governments and compen
sation per employee in education has
always been higher on the average than
for other employees. Therefore, it is espe
cially significant that the postwar enroll
ment increases at the elementary and
secondary school levels have slowed. Total
numbers of pupils in elementary schools
have already started to decrease and, after
the mid-1970’s, secondary school enroll
ments are likewise expected to decline.
In contrast to the 5.7-percent annual rate
of growth between 1955-68 for education
purchases by State and local governments,
the projected rate of increase from 1968 to
1985 is 3.5 percent. This rate is composed
of an average rate of change of 4.0 percent
between 1968 and 1980, with a further
The substantial shifts in the proportion
of State and local government expenditures
used for compensation of employees, as
opposed to purchases of goods and services
or construction, reflect much the same fac
tors as the change in functional patterns of
spending. The compensation of government
employees (in 1963 dollars), which ac
counted for more than 57 percent of State
and local spending in 1955, had declined
to somewhat more than 50 percent of the
total by 1972. The projections indicate that
compensation will continue to decline and
will amount to approximately 44 percent
and 42 percent, respectively, of this sec
tor’s total expenditures in 1980 and 1985.
Structures, which accounted for more than
one-quarter of State and local government
purchases in 1955, accounted for less than
66
16 percent in 1972. The decrease to a large
degree reflected a substantial drop in the
construction of schools and highways. In
1980 and 1985, the share of State and local
government purchases going to construction
is expected to be about the same as in
1972. On the other hand, all other purchases
by States and localities are projected to
show a relative increase, rising from onethird of total purchases in 1972 to 40 per
cent in 1980 and 43 percent in 1985.
The projections for Federal nondefense pur
chases are for rates of expansion more in
line with the latter period.
Outlays on space programs, or total Na
tional Aeronautics and Space Administra
tion (NASA) expenditures (in 1963dollars),
are projected to rise, retui*ning to approxi
mately the 1970 level by 1980, although
falling as a percent of GNP. Outlays by
NASA are projected at $2.6 billion (in 1963
dollars) for 1980 and $3.1 billion for 1985.
These projections assume that NASA’s bud
get will continue to be subject to pressures
from other priority programs, but that mod
erate increases will occur. Manpower costs
are assumed to remain at about the 1970
level, with almost all of the increase going
into purchases of equipment. Continued de
velopment of the Space Shuttle program at
a moderate rate was assumed. Outlays for
completed space vehicles and electronic
and communication equipment are pro
jected to rise somewhat from the 1970 level,
while purchases of space vehicle compo
nents are down slightly.
Federal Government
Federal purchases of goods and services,
as noted earlier, are particularly sensitive
to the years selected in making compari
sons. This is largely because of the volatile
nature of defense expenditures but also
reflects, in nondefense Federal purchases,
the buildup and leveling off of the space
program.
Nondefense purchases. Total Federal non
defense purchases increased very rapidly
during 1955-68 (7.6 percent a year) (table
35). However, because of the peaking out
of the space program, these purchases only
grew at 2.7 percent a year during 1965-72.
Table 35.
Defense purchases. Defense outlays in real
terms are projected to increase moderately
through 1985, although steadily declining
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Billions of 1963 dollars
Category
Projected
1955
1958
1959
1963
1965
1968
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
Federal Government purchases of
goods and s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$5 4.7
$ 5 7 .6
$5 6.5
$64.1
$6 2 .5
$8 4.4
$6 9.4
$6 5.7
$ 6 5.7
$80.1
$8 8.9
Defense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N ondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
47 .9
6.8
49.3
8.3
48.4
8.1
50.6
13.5
46.9
15.7
66 .9
17.5
54.0
15.4
48 .0
17.7
46 .7
18.9
54 .3
25 .8
59.0
29.8
Average annual rates of change '
Projected
1955-68
Federal Governm ent purchases of
goods and s e rv ic e s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
D efense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1965-72
1972-80
1968-85
3.4
0.7
2.5
0.3
-0 .4
2.1
2.6
7.6
-.1
2.7
1.9
3.9
-.7
3.2
-1 .7
3.3
1.7
2.9
Compound interest rates between term in al years.
SOURCE:
1968-80
1980-85
Econom ic Analysis,converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics;
H isto rical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com m erce, Bureau of projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
67
as a proportion of GNP. The rates of in
crease in 1972-80 and 1980-85 arelessthan
one-half the growth in real GNP. They are
also less than the growth in 1955-68 (table
35). Total outlays for military activities
and all Atomic Energy Commission func
tions are projected at about $54 billion in
1980 and $59 billion in 1985 (1963 dollars).
The 1980 level approximates that of 1970,
although the distribution of outlays between
personnel compensation and purchases is
substantially different. Expenditures for the
compensation of military personnel and Fed
eral civilian workers are about $6 billion
lower (in real terms) in 1980 than in 1970,
while purchases of equipment and services
are correspondingly higher. However, de
fense levels in 1980 and 1985 account for
a little more than 4 percent of GNP as com
pared to 7 percent in 1970 and somewhat
more than 6 percent in 1972.
The projected levels of expenditure in
1980 and 1985 assume that international
conditions continue at about the current
level of tension and that the United States
will maintain its current defense posture.
However, defense is expected to face heavy
budgetary competition from priority civilian
programs in this period. In addition, defense
costs, in current dollars, are expected to in
crease substantially throughout this period,
providing a major constraint on defense
purchases in real terms. In spite of a reduc
tion and leveling off of both military and
civilian manpower, current dollar personnel
costs are expected to rise as the Depart
ment of Defense maintains an acceptable
volunteer force and as retired pay greatly
increases. Personnel costs, including re
tired pay, are expected to exceed 50 per
cent of the current-dollar defense budget
by 1980. Equipment costs are also expected
to rise as weapons systems become pro
gressively more sophisticated and expen
sive, in spite of current efforts to halt this
trend. As a result, it is expected that equip
ment purchases will be moderately re
stricted through 1980. It is assumed that
the procurement of new weapon systems
will be spread out over longer time periods,
with greater emphasis on research and
development and fuller weapons testing
prior to large-scale procurement. The out
lay level assumed for 1980, therefore, pro
vides for modernization of existing forces,
with moderate expansion in some areas,
but at slower rates than in the past.
Defense manpower levels for 1980 and
1985 are projected to be consistent with
current trends, increasing costs of the volun
teer Armed Forces and the use of more
sophisticated weapons. The Armed Forces
are assumed to drop to 2 million by 1980
and remain at that level through 1985. This
is somewhat below the forces level of
2.3 million in 1973 and well below the 3.2
million average for 1970. The number of
Federal civilian workers in defense activi
ties is assumed to level off at 900,000 be
fore 1980 and to remain at that level
through 1985. This level is somewhat be
low the 1970 average of about 1 million.
These projected manpower levels were used
to project compensation in 1980 and 1985.
In addition, they were used as a basis for
projecting defense purchases from a num
ber of industries. Manpower levels were
the controlling factor in estimating pur
chases of a number of consumable pro
ducts and services, such as food and
clothing.
Other industry purchases were pro
jected by first projecting overall force struc
tures by mission, such as strategic or
general purpose forces. These provided a
general basis for projecting outlays re
quired for force replacement and expansion.
Current plans for major new weapons sys
tems, with extended development and pro
curement run-out times, were also studied,
particularly for their effect on the 1980
estimates. Constraints, such as internation
al arms limitation agreements, were also
considered. All projected purchases were
referenced to a 1970 base period and to
current (1973) levels of defense purchases
and force structures.
Strategic offensive forces are projected
to continue at about their current level,
but with extensive modernization continu
ing through 1980. Arms limitation agree
ments are expected to limit the number of
offensive units, but not their striking power.
The three-way reliance on strategic landbased missiles, submarine-launched mis
siles, and bombers is expected to continue,
68
but with a reduced role for manned bomb
ers. Conversion of all Minuteman I and II
missiles to the Minuteman III configura
tion with multiple warheads is assumed to
occur through 1980. The Trident sub
marine and missile program is assumed to
proceed at an unaccelerated pace, with
substantial procurement of both the sub
marine and an advanced missile continuing
into 1980. Final development of the B-l
bomber is assumed to proceed slowly, with
limited procurement in small numbers be
ginning in the late 1970’s. In addition, a
small mobile land-based missile system is
assumed to be deployed by 1980.
Strategic defensive forces are assumed
to remain at about current levels with
some modernization of aircraft and early
warning radar. The antiballistic missile sys
tems are assumed to progress slowly in fur
ther development, with deployment re
stricted by arms agreements. Expenditures
on research and development and equip
ment purchases of early warning electronics
for defense are assumed to be high through
1980. Replacement of air defense aircraft is
assumed to be moderate.
General purpose ground combat forces
are expected to remain relatively stable
through 1980 due to levels of readiness
developed during the Vietnam war. How
ever, it is assumed that capability, in terms
of mobility and firepower, will increase.
General purpose naval forces are assumed
to be still engaged in a substantial moderni
zation program through 1980. Outlays to
replace obsolete Navy ships and to improve
missile warfare capability at sea are
assumed to be high through 1980. Research
and development and equipment purchases
for antisubmarine warfare are assumed to
continue at a high level, affecting ship
building, aircraft, and electronics purchases.
Tactical and transport aircraft requirements
are expected to continue at about current
levels.
These assumptions on force levels and
structures provided the basis for estimating
purchases from major defense-oriented in
dustries in 1980 and 1985. Total purchases
of military hardware and other goods and
services are projected to increase over 1970
(in 1963 dollars) by about $6 billion in
1980 and almost $11 billion in 1985. Major
increases over 1970 are projected for guided
missiles, shipbuilding, and electronics and
communications equipment while conven
tional ordnance and aircraft purchases are
projected to decline. Missile purchases are
projected to be about one-third higher than
the 1970 level in 1980 and about twothirds higher in 1985. Shipbuilding outlays
are projected at substantially above the
1970 level in 1980, while falling off some
what in 1985. This high level in 1980
assumes a spread-out procurement of Tri
dent submarines, a large requirement for
surface missile ships, and a continued shift
of construction from Navy to private ship
yards. Electronics and communications
equipment purchases are assumed to be
about a third higher in 1980 than in i970,
and about 50 percent higher in 1985. On
the other hand, conventional ordnance is
projected at about two-thirds the 1970level
in both 1980 and 1985, or slightly above
current levels of procurement. Aircraft pur
chases are projected above current levels,
but somewhat below the 1970 level in 1980,
and only marginally higher in 1985.
69
Chapter 4. Projection of Input-Output Tables
In the previous chapter, the detailed pro
jections of demand were discussed. To trans
late this demand into output by industry,
an input-output table is used. The projection
of these tables is the focal point of this
chapter. First some conventions of inputoutput analysis are discussed. Then the
coefficients are discussed from the points of
view of factors which can affect coefficients.
The final sections review coefficient change
by industry and discuss alternative tech
nological possibilities.
The 1970 input-output table in this pub
lication has implicit all of the foregoing
conventions plus those added by BLS in
preparing the data. Obviously, the 1980
and 1985 models have the same conven
tions as the basic 1963 and 1970 tables
from which they were derived plus the
limitations added by the projection pro
cess.5 The projections in this publication
3
must be viewed as those numbers which
would result if a 1980 or 1985 census were
taken in the same way as in 1963, with the
same processing rules as in 1963, and pro
cessed into an input-output table for 1980
and 1985 with the same procedures and
rules as were used in preparing the 1963
input-output table.
Conventions of tables
Input-output tables used. Four input-output
tables underlie the data in this publication.
The 1963 input-output table of the Bureau
of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U. S.
Department of Commerce is the basic source
used in these projections. From this BLS
estimated a 1970 input-output table and
developed projected input-output tables for
1980 and 1985 (all in 1963 dollars).
The 1963 input-output table is based in
large part on the 1963 economic cen
suses.5 These censuses used certain con
1
ventions and had specific limitations. The
census data were processed into a 1963
transactions matrix by BEA, again with
certain rules, conventions, and limita
tions.5
2
Input-output conventions affecting coeffi
cient change. Over time, the input-output
coefficients of an economy can and do
change for several basic reasons — changes
in product mix, changes in relative prices,
and technological change. Changes in pro
duct mix can occur for a large number of
reasons, such as fashion or taste. In addi
tion, there are technical reasons peculiar
to the input-output charts which cause such
changes.
53If, for example, these data are compared with simi
lar data prepared from a 1958 or 1967 base BEA table,
there would be some important differences. For examples
in the 1958 table prepared by BEA, imported autos were
considered to be transferred imports whereas the 1963
51
Economic censuses cover mining, manufacturing, BEA tables considered imported autos to be a direct
allocation to final demand. The 1963 censuses covered
agriculture, transportation, trade, and selected services.
transportation while the 1958 census did not. Therefore,
Recently a census of construction has been added to this
we can assume that the 1963 transportation sector in
group.
the 1963 input-output table is a better estimate than
52In input-output usage, three tables have become
was possible in the 1958 table. It is of interest that the
standard: (1 ) the transactions table, which shows the
1967 table from BEA will benefit from the 1967 Census
sales and purchases by each industry to or from all
of Construction. In 1958 and 1963 the censuses did not
other industries or to final markets; (2 ) the direct coef
cover the construction industries. These few examples
ficients table, which shows the purchases per dollar of
do not, of course, exhaust the differences. They should
output by each industry; and (3 ) the total requirements
make clear that differences, both of definition and data
table, which shows direct and indirect requirements per
availability, exist between apparently similar tables.
dollar of final demand for each industry.
70
shift from open-hearth furnaces to basic
oxygen furnaces in the steel industry.5
5
This technological change can introduce
direct change in input coefficients or it can
have an impact on relative prices which in
turn affect the coefficients. Second, in an
input-output table, industries are aggre
gated. Since this is true, coefficient change
can occur as a result of a change in the
quantity of one product or industry com
pared to the other(s). This can occur either
through changes in product (output) mix
or input mix. At the level of industry de
tail (134 sectors) in which these projections
are prepared, many coefficient changes are
primarily due to other than technological
causes. Without detailed analysis in each
instance no assumptions concerning the
cause of the change should be made.
In theory an input-output table for an
economy can be stated in physical terms.
For example, the output of the coal industry
could be shown in actual tons of coal used
by each consuming industry. Similarly, all
other industries would sell their product as
physical quantities of the goods (or ser
vices) they produce. Coefficients in such an
input-output table would be unequivocal —
so many tons of coal per ton of steel, so
many tons of steel per car, etc. Unfortunate
ly the problems inherent in preparing a
"physical” table make it almost impossible
on a national scale. One such problem is
multiplicity of industries and units of pro
duction. For example, there are many kinds
of steel, each different in price and quality.
There is also the problem of defining a
physical unit. For example, what is the
physical unit of medical services, or bank
output? A partial solution is to use, for a
given year, the current-dollar value of the
transaction. This has a number of advan
tages. Dollars permit any degree of industry
aggregation; dollars also permit handling of
many other problems such as those involv
ing primary and secondary products and
imports. In many cases, an industry pro
duces not only products* (or services) pri
mary to it, but may also produce products
(or services) primary to other industries,
that is, secondary products.5 The treat
4
ment used by the Bureau of Economic
Analysis and followed here records a "trans
fer,” that is, an artificial sale, of secondary
products to the primary industry as an
input. As a result, in the input-output table,
the primary industry thus "makes” and
sells all of the primary products to users
and consumers.
Projection of coefficients
The major macroeconomic assumptions
used in making these projections were dis
cussed in the introduction. This section will
give the underlying technological assump
tions in the area of energy use. The general
effects of coefficient change are then
discussed.
Overall, it was assumed that the techni
cal relationships change gradually over time
and that these changes would be reflected
by degrees in the direct coefficient. Thus, it
might be said that the projected changes in
input-output coefficients in most cases are
evolutionary in process rather than revolu
tionary. The dramatic technological break
through is difficult to predict, and usually
still takes a long period to diffuse widely.
In general, the higher the level of industry
aggregation, the more limited is the effect
of the average technological change on the
coefficients of an input-output table.5
6
Coefficient change over time. As used in
this report, technological change encom
passes two different types of change. First,
technological change refers to a real change
in production technique, for example, the
5
5 An apparent change in production technique may
actually be a response to the scale of production. In
general, the scale factor is considered to be a constant
in these projections.
56At a 100-industry level of detail, changes in coef
ficients are very gradual and are difficult to detect over
any short period of time. A t a 1,000-industry level of
detail, they would be more common, and in some in
stances dramatic.
54 An establishment is classified in a given industry
if more than 50 percent of its dollar output is of pro
ducts primary to that industry. All other products of that
establishment are call ed secondary products. Such second
ary products are, of course, primary to another industry.
71
Energy assumptions. Energy assumptions
can affect projections of demand in terms of
consumer purchases of gasoline or electrici
ty. By the same token energy assumptions
have implications for input-output coeffi
cients because industry also purchases gaso
line and electric energy. The magnitude of
the energy problem required that a balanced
set of energy supply projections be incor
porated into the study, covering both final
demand and input-output coefficients. The
energy assumptions used in developing
these input-output projections are based on
the Department of the Interior report
United States Energy Through the Year
2000, December 1972. This report traces
the flow of raw energy forms — crude pe
troleum, natural gas, and coal — through the
extraction, refining, and distribution pro
cesses. It was assumed that the United
States is fixed into its current pattern of
energy consumption until 1985 and that
domestic production of fossil fuels would be
supplemented by higher import levels and
a limited addition to production from syn
thetic gas and oil in the 1980-85 period. At
the same time, for refined products, the
limited amount of domestic refinery capa
city presently available or forecast to be
operational before 1980 requires that re
fined petroleum products constitute a grow
ing proportion of petroleum imports till
1980. In the 1980-85 period petroleum im
ports are assumed to be evenly divided
between petroleum products and crude
petroleum.
Rapid changes in the energy situation
over the past year have outdated some of
these energy assumptions. BLS is now eval
uating the longrun energy situation to de
termine the implications of alternative
energy assumptions for coefficient change as
well as for the composition of final demand.
Table 36. Average coefficient change, selected industries, selected
periods, actual and projected, 1963-85
Industry
1 Livestock and livestock
p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 Crops and other agricultural
p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8 Coal m in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
9 Crude p e tro le u m. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
17 M aintenance and repair
c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
27 Logging, sawm ills, and planing
m ills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
37 Plastic m aterials and synthetic
ru b b e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
38 Synthetic fib e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
44 Plastic products . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
49 Blast furnaces and basic steel
p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
77 Electric lighting and w irin.....
g
81 Electronic co m ponents
..........
93 Railroad tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . .
97 Air tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
99 Com m unications, except radio
and T V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
101 Electric u tilitie.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
102 Gas u tilitie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
s
112 Miscellaneous business services
114 Miscellaneous professional
services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
91 .3
-
1.0
-0 .4
-0 .9
75.1
80.9
99.7
- .8
-1 .1
- .8
- .7
-2 .7
-2 .2
- .3
1.6
-2 .3
71 .3
-3 .8
-4 .3
-5 .0
93.1
-1 .4
-1 .2
-1 .1
89 .4
95 .6
93.1
.9
4.9
10.8
1.4
1.2
4.4
2.5
.8
-.6
95.1
75 .9
82 .4
65 .5
58.1
-1 .5
1.4
6.0
-2 .2
11.5
-1 .9
1.3
2.0
-3 .3
4.8
-1 .2
1.8
1.2
-3 .2
3.8
49 .5
52.7
67 .0
8 0 .5
4.2
1.5
.7
1.5
2.8
-1 .7
3.3
2.9
1.3
-1 .6
2.8
77.4
3.7
1.2
2.3
2.5
1 Compound interest rates between terminal years. Data represent the
average annual rates of change of the weighted coefficients along the row
of the input-output table involved i.e., for each of the industries shown be
ing measured as a seller. The output weights are for domestic production in
the beginning year.
NOTE:
In d u stry
num bers
refer to s e c to rin g plan shown in appendix
table A-2.
S O U R C E:
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
mediate output as a percentage of total
output. The remaining columns show the
weighted coefficient change for different
time periods in terms of average annual
rates. For example, for industry 8, coal
mining, intermediate output is shown as
80.9 percent of total output in 1970. Be
tween 1963 and 1970 and between 1970
and 1980 the coefficients decline. This im
plies that industries which buy coal will be
buying less per unit (in this case per dol
lar) of production. This does not necessari
ly mean that coal output will decline. The
actual output of coal is projected to rise be
cause the growth of the industries consum
ing coal will exceed the decline in coal
Effects of coefficient change. Two aspects
of coefficient change are presented here.
The first summarizes the net effect of coef
ficient change on the industries producing
intermediate goods and services. The sec
ond separates the effects of coefficient
change on an industry’s output from the
effects of changes in final demand.
In table 36, the first column shows inter-
Average annual
Interm ediate
rates of change 1
outpu t as
percent of
Projected
total output,
19 63 -70 19 70 -80 1980-85
1970
72
In examining these tables one notes at
least two types of industries. One is a finaldemand-oriented industry such as comput
ers (industry 71 in table 37) where almost
all of the change in output from 1963 to
1970 is attributable to changes in final de
mand. A second type of industry is, for
example, plastic products (industry 44 in
table 37) where the changes in output are
due both to changes in demand and in
input-output coefficients. Thus, the plastic
products industry is increasing its output
both as inputs into other sectors and as
end products.
Table 37. Industries with significant changes in output, 1963-70
(Based on data in 1963 dollars)
Percent change
Industry
Total
Change Change due Change
Rank change
due to
to final
due to
in output co efficient demand interaction
changes
changes
87 Miscellaneous
transportation
eq uipm ent. .........
44 Plastic products...
.
97 Air tra n s p o rtatio n ....
71 Computers and p e
ripheral equipment.
81 Electronic co m
ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
91 Photographic eq u ip
ment and supplies.
78 Radio and TV sets...
90 Optical and
ophthalm ic goods..
79 Telephone and te le
graph apparatus....
.
19 Other ordnance....
NOTE:
table A-2.
SOURCE:
1
2
3
20 8.3
186.0
171.5
3.3
104.0
67.7
20 1.9
42 .0
81 .9
3.1
40 .0
21 .9
4
134.1
- 1.5
140.5
-4 .9
5
130.6
49 .0
64.4
17.2
6
7
119.6
112.3
32.5
6.2
76 .4
105.2
10.7
.9
8
112.0
22.6
74.9
14.5
9
10
108.4
107.4
20.1
-6 .4
77.4
117.1
10.9
-3 .3
Review of coefficient change by industry
A change in an intermediate input coeffi
cient affects both the producing and the
consuming industry. The following section
examines coefficient change viewed as in
dustry output, that is, along the row. (See
appendix tables B-19 through B-21.) Thus
an increase in the average row coefficients
Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
input per dollar of output — resulting in an
overall increase in coal production. The
growth in the coal industry coefficients be
tween 1980 and 1985 can be explained by
the higher utilization of coal in electric
energy projected for this period along with
or partly as a result of coal gasification.
(Data for all industries are shown in appen
dix table B-22.)
In input-output analysis, output can
change because of changes in input-output
coefficients or from changes in final demand.
In separating the contributions of coeffi
cient change and final demand change, an
additional element is the interaction of these
two factors. In the tables presenting these
data the interaction factor is shown sep
arately. Three tables (tables 37-39) show
the industries with the largest changes in
output for three time periods— 1963-70,
projected 1970-80, and projected 1980-85 —
and the factoring of the change in output
into the elements described above — that
contributed by change in input-output coef
ficients, that contributed by change in final
demand, and the interaction. Similar data
for 129 industries in the same time periods
are shown in appendix tables B-19-B-21.
Table 38.
Industries with significant projected changes in output,
1970-80
(Based on data in 1963 dollars)
Percent change
Industry
Total
Change Change due Change
to final
due to
Rank change
due to
in o utpu t co efficien t demand interaction
changes
changes
71 Computers and p e
ripheral equipm ent 1
87 Miscellaneous
transportatio n
eq uipm ent. .........
2
37 Plastic m aterials
and synthetic
ru b b e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
97 Air tra n s p o rtatio n ... 4
5
44 Plastic products
....
85 Ship and boat b u ild
ing and repair .....
.
6
73 Service industry
7
m a c h in e s...........
91 Photographic eq u ip
m ent and supplies.. • 8
72 Typew riters and
other offic e
9
m a c h in e s...........
14 New public utilities
co n s tru c tio n
....... 10
NOTE:
table A-2.
SOURCE:
73
185.6
2.0
182.3
1.3
165.9
.1
16 5.8
0
161.7
14 8.0
14 4.0
55.5
37 .0
47.2
70 .6
86.1
68 .6
35 .6
24 .9
28 .2
139.2
-2 .4
142.9
1.3
132.9
30 .3
80 .9
21.7
124.0
15.5
98 .3
10.3
12 1.6
1.9
118.5
1.2
119.8
0
119.8
0
Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix
Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
is the declining importance of natural fibers
such as cotton and wool produced in the
agriculture sectors, due to the increased use
of synthetic fibers in the textile and apparel
industries.
Table 39. Industries with significant projected changes in output,
1980-85
(Based on data in 1963 dollars)
Percent change
Industry
Total
Change Change due Change
Rank change
due to
to final
due to
in output co efficien t demand interactio n
changes
changes
Mining. The decline in the iron ore (industry
5) coefficient results from the increased pro
cessing or enrichment of iron ore after it is
41.4
97 Air tra n s p o rta tio n .. 1
16.5
21 .8
3.1
mined, that is, the exhaustion of good do
91 Photographic
mestic natural iron ore which contained 50eq uipm ent and
4 1 .4
2 7 .3
2.3
s u p p lie s . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
11.7
55 percent iron resulted in heavy use of
7 O ther nonferrous
taconite ores which contain less iron ore in
18.4
4 .3
m etal ore m ining.. 3
37.7
15.0
the natural state. However, after treatment,
71 Com puters and
peripheral
the processed ores will contain approximate
.
36.5
.1
35 .8
.6
e q u ip m e n t . . . . . . . . 4
ly 65 percent iron. These estimates assume
81 Electronic
that even greater enrichment of iron ore will
23 .4
1.7
c o m p o n e n ts
......
5
32.6
7.5
32.4
13.2
16.8
2.5
8 Coal m in in g. . . . . . . . 6
.
tend to decrease the amount of ore required
79 Telephone and tele
in a blast furnace charge.
graph ap paratus... 7
31.9
9.3
20 .6
2.1
The nonferrous metalore mining industry
112 Miscellaneous
19.5
1.9
business services. 8
31 .5
10.1
(industry 7) shows a marked increase in
30 .9
101 Electric u tilitie s .... 9
9.9
19.3
1.6
the proportion of the change in output ac
-.1
-.1
30.9
31 .0
119 H o sp itals........... 10
.
counted for by coefficient change. This is
NOTE: Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix explained by a projected increase in the use
ta b le A -2.
of aluminum scrap in the manufacturing of
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics .
aluminum and other improvements in the
production process. The major trend ac
counting for the coefficient increase be
for an industry implies that more is being
tween 1980 and 1985 is the projected
used per dollar of output by other industries
increase in demand for uranium ore for
using its output, while a decline implies the
processing into nuclear fuel.
opposite.
The decline in the coal coefficients (in
dustry 8) can be attributed to three fac
Agriculture. Overall, the coefficients in the
tors: a continuation of a long-term decline
agriculture sectors show a decline (except
in the use of coal as a heating fuel; a de
for the agriculture, forestry, and fishery
cline in the relative importance of coal in
services industry (industry 4) in 1980. The
the generation of electricity and in steel
increase in this coefficient in 1980 can be
making; and increased efficiency of coal
attributed to input-output accounting con
utilization in these industries. This decline
ventions concerning the handling of pur
is further reinforced by the impact of en
chases from State and local governments
vironmental protection regulations, al
by the intermediate sectors and final de
though the existing energy situation makes
mand categories). The decline in the coef
such an assumption open to question.
ficients in the agriculture sectors can be
Since over 80 percent of the total output
attributed to a decline in the relative im
of the crude petroleum extraction industry
portance of agriculture’s input into the agri
(industry 9) is sold to the petroleum refin
cultural processing industries. Increased
ing industry (industry 42), this coefficient
processing of the raw agricultural products
dominates the row. The decline in this coef
by the intermediate consuming industries to
ficient is due to higher yields of petroleum
products per barrel of crude oil. This im
produce processed foods (such as frozen
dinners) means that the agricultural raw
proved yield has the effect (in constant
materials are making up a declining share
dollars) of reducing the crude coefficients.
Basic to this assumption are refinery proof the total cost of food. A similar example
74
cesses such as catalytic cracking and ther
mal cracking which increase the yield of
high-value products per barrel of crude oil.
At this point no lesser product yield due to
environmental objectives was assumed.
The projected increases in the chemical
and fertilizer mining (industry 11) coeffi
cients can be explained by increased use of
these products for agriculture and for in
dustrial chemicals which utilize sulfur and
phosphate rock as inputs — two of the major
outputs of this industry.
The increase in the coefficients of the
chemical products industry (industry 35)
can be attributed to several factors. Some
of these are the continued growth of basic
chemicals such as sulfuric acid, etc., the
increased importance of chemical input to
the agricultural chemical industry, and the
greater use of chemicals in steelmaking due
to the increased importance of the oxygen
process in the iron and steel industry.
The increase in the agricultural chemi
cals industry (industry 36) coefficients is
due to the growing use of these products
in farm applications. Their increasing use
on the farm as fertilizers, insecticides, or
fungicides is expected to continue.
The plastic materials and synthetic rub
ber industry (industry 37) coefficients show
a large increase during the 1970-80 period
and moderate growth from 1980 to 1985.
This change from rapid to more moderate
growth can be attributed to changes in two
sub-industries, the rubber products industry
(industry 43) and the plastic products in
dustry (industry 44), which consume ap
proximately 60 percent of the output of the
plastic materials and synthetic rubber in
dustry. During the 1980-85 period the
growth of plastic products coefficients is
assumed to slacken due to a slowdown in
the growth of the use of plastic for endproduct applications.
The coefficient increase in the synthetic
fiber industry (industry 38) results from the
increased use of knit goods in apparel manu
facturing mentioned above. Knit goods are
mainly composed of synthetic fibers, or
blends of synthetic fibers and natural fibers.
In addition, other uses of synthetic fibers
such as in tire belts and cords and roller
bearings will contribute to the increasing
use of fiber and was a factor in the coef
ficient increase projected in this industry.
The plastic products industry (industry
44) shows a coefficient increase which is
widespread throughout all of the interme
diate uses. This increase is a continuation
of the expansion of plastic products as well
as their substitution for competitive mate
rials such as metals. Examples are the
increasing use of plastic products in build
ing materials, home construction, and furni
ture manufacturing. After 1980, the coeffi
Construction. All new construction in the
input-output tables is sold to final demand.
Total output and final demand, therefore,
are the same. The decline in the coeffi
cient for maintenance construction is due
to changes over time in maintenance re
quirements arising from the use of pre
finished surfaces and longer lasting paints.
Also, maintenance tends to be a fixed cost,
rising, not with production, but with the
stock of structures. Thus, per dollar of out
put, it declines.
Nondurable goods manufacturing. No major
changes are projected for the food industry
(industry 20). However, by 1980, coeffi
cients in this industry are projected to show
a slight decrease due to improved process
ing techniques.
The rapid coefficient increase in the
hosiery and knit goods sector (industry 24)
can be attributed to a shift in consumer
taste from finished apparel items made
from woven natural fibers (wool and cot
ton) to those made from synthetic fibers,
especially synthetic knit goods. A large
portion of the knit goods used in apparel
is sold (or transferred as secondary pro
ducts) from this industry to the apparel
industry. Keeping this shift in mind, it can
be readily understood how a change in con
sumer taste for apparel items has affected
the input of hosiery and knit goods to the
apparel industry. In projecting the coeffi
cients in the hosiery and knit goods in
dustry, it was assumed that the rapid
growth would taper off after 1970 and that
the use of natural fibers would be con
tinued in blends restricted to quality, topof-the-line, apparel items.
75
cients in this industry show a modest
decline because of the high petroleum
content of its products and the assumption
that higher prices of petroleum will make
plastic somewhat less competitive than it
has been prior to this.
The leather, footwear, and leather pro
ducts industry (industry 45) shows a slight
coefficient decline primarily due to the rela
tive decline in the importance of leather
inputs to all industries and the increasing
use of synthetic materials in shoe manufac
turing. In a previous set of projections pub
lished by BLS it was assumed that the
substitution of synthetic materials for leath
er would take place. While such substitutes
have never been fully accepted by consum
ers, the amount of leather used in shoes
has continued to decline due to the substi
tution of synthetic materials for leather in
shoe linings and in shoe soles and heels.
trend is expected to continue.
The phenomenal growth in the coefficients
of the metal container industry (industry
58) from 1963 to 1970 is expected to slow
by 1980 and to decline during the 1980-85
period. This growth pattern can be attri
buted to increasing competition from plastic
and glass containers and to possible re
strictions on the use of disposable metal
containers. Increases in service industry
machine (industry 73) •
coefficients can be
attributed to the projected increased use of
central air conditioning units produced in
this industry for new housing and nonresidential construction.
The electronics industry shows a large
increase in intermediate coefficients. Some
of this is attributable to an assumed growth
in the use of electronic components in the
automobile industry such as electronic igni
tion parts and sensing mechanisms for fuel
injection systems. Another contributing fac
tor is the shift in output mix from tubes to
complete solid state subassemblies. These
subassemblies are finding wide acceptance
in electronic switching devices and in com
puter assemblies due to their high reliabil
ity. Many industries are projected to in
crease their use of these components.
Durable goods manufacturing. The coeffi
cients of logging, sawmills, and planing
mills (industry 27) will decrease due to
the relative decline in logging and sawmill
products relative to the output of millwork,
plywood, and other wood products (industry
28). Projected increased utilization of what
was primarily wood waste tends to decrease
coefficients. The growth of the intermediate
coefficients of the plywood and millwork
industry can be attributed to increasing use
of preassembled housing components made
in this industry and the growing uses of
particle board and plywood in housing con
struction.
An overall general decline in the coeffi
cients of blast furnaces and basic steel
products (industry 49), iron and steel
foundries (industry 50), and primary copper
metals (industry 51) can be attributed to
the substitution of aluminum, plastic, and
lightweight steel for the output of these
three industries in end-product applications.
In general, the amount of steel used in
automobiles has declined as plastic and
aluminum have found wider acceptance for
items such as decorative trim and grilles.
In housing construction in recent years,
there has been a trend toward replacing
copper tubing and wiring with heat-resistant
plastic piping and aluminum wiring; this
Transportation. In general, less transporta
tion services per unit of output are assumed
to be required by producing industries. The
air transportation industry (industry 97) is
one exception to this general trend. Pro
jected growth in business air travel and the
use of air freight transportation in the move
ment of such materials as critical inventory
items and replacement parts account for
the largest portion of the projected coeffi
cient increase in this industry. Underlying
this growth has been the development of
larger planes which have greater potential
for more economical operations.
Communication. There are two divergent
trends in the coefficients in the communica
tion sector. The radio and TV broadcasting
industry (industry 100) coefficients show a
marked decline. Over 80 percent of this
industry’s output is transferred to the ad
vertising industry (industry 113) and the
decline in this coefficient accounts for most
76
of the coefficient change. This apparent
decline is due primarily to the definition of
radio and TV output as the viewing or
listening population. Since population
changes are projected to be small, the pro
jected gain in radio and television output
(in constant dollars) is low.
The rise in the coefficients for communi
cations, except radio and TV (industry 99),
can be attributed in part to the projected
increase in electronic data transmission,
caused by the growth in computer networks,
cable TV, etc. Another factor is declining
relative cost which, in addition to opening
new markets, stimulates old markets to
high growth rates.
jection period. Two exceptions are miscella
neous business services (industry 112) and
miscellaneous professional services (indus
try 114), which show coefficient increases.
The coefficient growth in the business ser
vice sector and the miscellaneous profes
sional service sector is attributable in part
to machine rentals, especially computers,
and the complexity of the business environ
ment and the need for outside professional
advice.
Alternative technological possibilities
There are on the horizon a number of
technological possibilities different from
those assumed in the 1980 and 1985 pro
jections and discussed in the preceding sec
tion. It may be beneficial to highlight a few
of these possibilities as an aid in assessing
the current set of projections and the inputoutput coefficients in particular.
Utilities. Two of the industries within the
utilities sector show a reversal of long-term
trends. While the consumption of electricity,
gas, and water services will increase in
absolute terms, only the electric utilities
industry (industry 101) shows a significant
coefficient increase. The decline in gas utili
ty (industry 102) coefficients can be attri
buted primarily to conversion from natural
gas fuels to other fossil fuels due to the
assumed limited supply and increases in
the relative price of natural gas.5 It is
7
possible that the slight decline in the water
and sanitary services coefficients may be
reversed during the projection period. This
reversal could occur if increased treatment
of waste water and sewerage is done by the
water and sanitary services sector instead
of by consumer plant treatment systems.
Energy. Energy self-sufficiency is not impli
cit in these projections. The policy implicit
in these estimates is that of large-scale
dependence on imported petroleum. Even
assuming that Mideast oil supplies become
more secure, the United States is now defi
nitely set on the course of energy selfsufficiency. Given the resources of the
United States and presently available tech
nology, this is a possible goal, albeit, per
haps, expensive.
A number of prospective approaches to
energy self-sufficency are being explored.
One is the conversion of coal to gas. There
are already several plants being planned
for this purpose and more can be expected.5
8
Other possibilities included conversion of
coal into petroleum. A return to coal use by
a number of utilities and other large heat
and power users is a choice today in many
plants. Other utility plants can be converted
at nominal cost. Much of this will occur,
though at a slackened pace if oil becomes
available again. Such a return to coal would,
of course, increase the coal-electric utilities
coefficient.
Services. The service industries are some of
the most rapidly growing sectors of the
economy. Included in this group are pro
fessional services such as doctors, lawyers,
and accountants, business consultants, and
educational services. However, final users
consume a significant portion of these ser
vices, with an insignificant amount being
purchased by intermediate users. There
fore, in spite of the large overall growth in
output projected for the services sector,
the majority of the service sector industries
show slight coefficient declines in the pro-
58 The new plants being planned are for the manufac
ture of synthetic gas comparable to natural gas. Coalgas plants of long ago manufactured a much lower quali
ty gas.
57 This assumption was part of the set of energy
assumptions from the Department of the Interior.
77
period. It is doubtful that this process can
be hastened sufficiently to make any signi
ficant energy contribution in the next 10 or
15 years. Even further away is any use of
fusion5 since the theoretical feasibility of
9
this process is still being tested. If feasible,
this will possibly be the major source of
energy after the year 2000.
Concurrent with these developments
there must be a much larger investment in
coal mining and processing facilities. These
will undoubtedly be more efficient than pre
sent facilities and result in larger output
per man. Difficulties in recruiting labor for
this kind of work will accelerate purchases
of equipment which increases tons of coal
produced per man.
Two major problems are present in re
gard to coal mining. One relates to sulfur
in coal. While eastern coals are available,
they are often high in sulfur. Western coals
are lower in sulfur although not free of this
substance. Methods of economically remov
ing the sulfur from coal prior to its release
into the atmosphere during burning will
make the more widespread use of coal a
better alternative. The second problem is
strip mining. Strip mining is widely prac
ticed, primarily because, up until now, it
has been cheaper. If restoration of stripped
areas is required, it will narrow the cost
difference between stripped and under
ground coal. While improved technology
can and will aid in rehabilitation of stripped
areas, it is not reasonable to assume a
complete amelioration of this problem.
The concern about energy and the viabil
ity of the assumptions used in these pro
jections has been so extensive that the
Bureau has committed itself to developing
alternative 1980 and 1985 projections for
examining differing energy assumptions.
Automobile engines. One of the important
technological assumptions of this set of pro
jections specifies no major change in the
internal combustion auto engine. At present
the indications are that for some period
this is quite likely. Although modifications
of the internal combustion engine such as
Wankel, diesel, and Rankin cycle are in
various experimental stages, no clear alter
native has emerged. Their adoption would
generate smaller coefficient changes than
would widespread adoption of electric,
steam, or turbine engines. Implicit in these
estimates is some decrease in the average
size of cars. The impact would probably be
on the level of auto output rather than on
the coefficients. The projections have antici
pated changes in transportation patterns
such as a growth in local and commuter
transit. Again, the output of the transit in
dustries would be affected rather than the
coefficients. It is true that changes in scale
could give rise to coefficient change. Also,
new capital equipment and new transit lines
with their new technology will change the
industry coefficients over time. But in the
short-run the scale factor is the most sig
nificant one.
Atomic energy. Assuming that the petro
leum crisis continues, it is possible that
nuclear-fueled plants will come onstream
somewhat more quickly. This would come
about mainly from a shortened hearing and
authorization process. The major element
of delay — testing — is less amenable to
shortcuts. If nuclear power plants are a
more important factor than these projec
tions assume, the input structure of the
electric utility industry would be changed
to the extent that nuclear plants require
inputs that are different from those of other
electric utilities.
More funding could somewhat hasten
development of the breeder reactor. A pilot
breeder plant is now scheduled to go on
stream towards the end of the projection
Residential construction. In residential con
struction no major new directions are
assumed. Mobile homes are assumed to
grow somewhat, relative to conventional
construction. However, conventional con
struction by conventional methods is
assumed to predominate. Conceivably, the
factory-built home, combining features of
the mobile home and the conventionally
59Fusion is the physical process embodied in the
hydrogen bomb. Fusion (as opposed to the Fission pro
cess, which fuels current nuclear electric plants) is clean
and has a relatively cheap and almost unlimited supply
of raw material (deuterium).
73
constructed home, could become very signi
ficant. Such factory-built homes already
supply a portion of the market. To date,
their cost advantage over more conven
tional construction has been modest. In
part this is due to the extent to which the
so-called conventional builders purchase
greater quantities of more highly fabricated
products. Further, many larger builders
operate assembly operations approximating
a factory. As a result the unit cost differ
ence between factory and conventional con
struction has remained small. However,
where this cost difference becomes sizable,
the inputs to residential cost would change
since the industry would be buying nearly
complete houses, not lumber, glass, plumb
ing fixtures, etc., as it does now.
This discussion of alternative technologi
cal possibilities is not meant to exhaust
the list but to give the reader an under
standing that such possibilities do exist and
that in using these projections such develop
ments should be considered.
79
Chapter 5. Projected Changes in Industrial Composition of
Output, Productivity, Hours, and Employment
In the previous chapters, the discussions
have centered on the factors determining po
tential output, the composition of income,
tne structure of final demand by component
as well as by industrial sector, and, finally,
tn^ role of technology as measured by
projected changes in input-output coeffi
cients. These subjects provide the neces
sary background for this chapter’s discus
sions of output, productivity, average week
ly hours, and employment by industry. In
the following sections the many assump
tions and projections previously presented
are discussed in the context of their impact
on the detailed industry projections of out
put and employment.
The first part of this chapter discusses
the output projections at the major sector
level, followed by a look at selected in
dustries. Next productivity and average
hours are discussed. The final section dis
cusses the employment projections at the
major sector level and for selected in
dustries.
nating in the total private economy6 is
1
projected to grow only 3.3 percent annually.
Thus, for 1980-85, most sectors are ex
pected to grow more slowly than in 1955-68
or in the projected period 1968-80. However,
within this overall trend, shifts in the rela
tive importance of output among the major
producing sectors will take place.
These shifts in sector growth rates can
best be observed by using a percent distri
bution of gross product originating by ma
jor sector (chart 6). A comparison of these
relative movements provides an indication
of the shifts in the output of the major sec
tors from 1955 to 1972 and projected shifts
for 1980 and 1985.
In general the movement of historical as
well as projected output shares can be char
acterized as a steady movement away from
agriculture toward the nonagricultural sec
tors. Within the nonagricultural sector, the
output shares move between manufacturing
and nonmanufacturing in a cyclical pattern.
Manufacturing has historically accounted
for 30.8 to 33.6 percent of the toted private
economy’ s output. The lower percentage re
Output
flects the recession of 1958-59 when the
low levels of domestic investment and con
Sector distribution of real output. The out
sumer durable expenditures affected the
put of the total private economy,6 in real
0
level of manufacturing. The higher percent
terms, is projected to expand at an annual
age reflects the defense spending of the
rate of 4.3 percent between 1968 and 1980.
Vietnam war and unusually high consumer
This rate is faster than the 1955-68 growth
expenditures on durable goods. Manufac
rate of 3.8 percent a year. (See table 40.)
turing, particularly durable goods manufac
Thus, other things being equal, most sectors
turing, is projected to grow faster between
are projected to grow at a rate faster than
1968 and 1980 than in 1955-68 in spite of
their trend during 1955-68. However, be
the decline in the relative importance of
tween 1980 and 1985 gross product origimilitary production. This output accelera
tion reflects the projected demand for pro60
The discussion of output is limited to the private
sector because real output in the government sector is
simply the wages and salaries of government employees
stated in base-year prices — in this case 1963 dollars.
Thus, adding government does not contribute to the
analysis of real output change.
61
Gross product originating is the measure of value
added by an industry or sector. It is an unduplicated
measure of output in that the summation of all sectors’
value added is equal to gross national product.
80
Table 40. Gross product originating ' in total private economy by major sector, selected years 1955-72 and projected for
1980 and 1985
Projected
Sector
1955
1958
1959
1963
1968
1965
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
Billions of 1 9 63 dollars
.
Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A gricu lture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
N ona griculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C ons truc tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
D u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Transportation, com m unication,
and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and
real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Government en te rp ris e .s.........
Rest of the world plus
statistical discrepancy.........
.
$419 .9
19.8
400.1
10.1
35.1
140.9
81 .4
59.5
$ 4 2 8 .4
19.7
408.7
9.8
34.9
131.9
71.0
60.9
$ 4 5 8 .2
19.9
4 3 8 .3
10.2
37.3
147.3
81.0
66.3
$ 5 3 2 .3
21 .5
51 0 .8
11.0
37.0
171 0
95.9
75.1
$600.1
22.4
57 7.7
11.8
39.7
20 0 .0
115.1
84.9
$ 6 8 5 .2
22.1
663.1
13.0
40 .3
22 9.6
131.9
97.7
$ 7 00 .7
23.4
67 7.2
13.6
39.8
2 2 8.9
125.9
103.0
$ 7 2 5 .0
24 .6
70 0.4
13.3
40 .6
2 3 4.6
127.5
107.1
37.3
20 .8
7.7
8.8
68.7
22.9
45 .8
39.6
20.1
9.2
10.3
71.9
24.8
47.1
42.1
21 .2
9.8
11.1
77.3
27 .2
50.1
50.5
23 .9
12.7
13.9
88 .5
32.7
55 .8
57.5
27 .0
14.9
15.6
99 .9
36.9
63.0
69.1
31 .6
19.0
18.5
114.6
44 .6
70.0
75.8
32 .5
22.9
20.4
120.0
4 /.0
73.0
79 .2
33 .0
24 .3
21 .9
124.8
4 8 .8
76.0
84 .8
34.7
26 .7
23 .4
132.8
51.8
81 .0
137.1
54 3
47 .3
35.5
191.9
77.3
11 4.6
16 8.8
63 .3
60 .6
44 .9
2 1 7.6
88 .3
129.3
56 .9
47 .9
6.4
63.9
53.9
6.2
66.2
56.8
6.4
80.1
66 .0
7.0
89.5
72.9
8.5
102.5
83.1
11.2
103.7
8 7 .5
11.6
107.5
88 .0
11.7
113.1
91 7
13.4
173.9
15 0.8
18.8
2 1 0 .0
182.0
22 .6
-3 .2
- 3.4
5.3
-.3
-2 .1
-3 .7
.7
3.3
-
-
.3
$ 7 7 2 8 $ 1 ,1 3 8 .6
23 .2
23 .9
749.5 1,114 .7
13.4
14.9
41 .8
53.3
37 5.9
255.1
140.1
222.1
115.0
15 3.8
-
$ 1 ,3 4 1 .5
25.1
1,316 .4
15.1
58 .0
4 3 7 .6
2 5 9 .3
178.3
.9
4.7
Percent distribution
Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A gricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N onagriculture
................... .........
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C onstruction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
D u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n d u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Transportation, com m unication,
and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and
real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Government e n te rp ris e .s.........
Rest of the world plus
statistical discrepancy.........
.
100.0
4.7
95 .3
2.4
8.4
33.6
19.4
14.2
100.0
4.6
95.4
2.3
8.2
30.8
16.6
14.2
100.0
4.3
95.7
2.2
8.1
32.2
17.7
14.5
100.0
4.0
96 .0
2.1
7.0
32.1
18.0
14.1
100.0
3.7
96 .3
2.0
6.6
33 .3
19.2
14.2
100.0
3.2
96 .8
1.9
5.9
33 5
19.2
14.3
100.0
3.3
96.7
1.9
5.7
37.7
18.0
14.7
100.0
3.4
96 .6
1.8
5.6
32.4
17.6
14.8
100.0
3.0
97 .0
1.7
5.4
33 .0
18.1
14.9
100.0
2.1
97 .9
1.3
47
33 0
19 5
13.5
100.0
19
98.1
1.1
4.3
32.6
19 .3
13.3
8.9
5.0
1.8
2.1
16.4
5.5
10.9
9.2
4.7
2.2
2.4
16.8
5.8
11.0
9.2
4.6
2.1
2.4
16.9
5.9
10.9
9.5
4.5
2.4
2.6
16.6
6.1
10.5
9.6
4.5
2.5
2.6
16.7
6.2
10.5
10.1
4.6
2.8
2.7
16.7
6.5
10.2
10.8
4.6
3.3
2.9
17.1
6.7
10.4
10.9
4.6
3.3
3.0
17.2
6.7
10.5
11.0
4.5
3.5
3.0
17.2
6.7
10.5
120
4.8
4.2
3.1
16.9
6.8
10.1
12.6
4.5
4.5
3.4
16.2
6.6
9.6
13.6
11.4
1.5
14.9
12.6
1.5
14.5
12.4
1.4
15.1
12.4
1.3
14.9
12.2
1.4
15.0
12.1
1.6
14.8
12.6
1.7
14.8
12.1
1.6
14.6
11.9
1.7
15.2
13.2
1.7
15.7
13.6
1.7
-.8
- .8
- 1.2
.1
-.3
0
- .5
.1
.4
See footnotes at end of table.
81
-
1
Table 40. Gross product originating 1 in total private economy by major sector, selected years 195 572 and projected for
1980 and 1985—Continued
Average annual rates of change 2
Sector
Projected
19 55 -68
Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N ona griculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
D u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tran sportation, com m unication,
and public u tilitie s...............
.
.
T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
................
C o m m u n ic a tio n
Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and
real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Government e n te rp ris e .s.........
1 9 59 -68
1965-72
1972-80
1968-85
19 68 -80
1930-85
3.8
.8
4.0
2.0
1.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.6
1.2
4.7
2.7
.9
5.1
5.6
4.4
3.7
.5
3.8
1.8
.7
3.5
2.8
4.4
5.0
.4
5.1
1.3
3.1
5.0
5.9
3.7
4.0
.8
4.1
.9
2.2
3.9
4.1
3.6
4.3
.7
4.4
1.1
2.4
4.2
4.4
3.9
3.3
1.0
3.4
.3
1.7
3.1
3.2
3.0
4.9
3.3
7.2
5.9
4.0
5.3
3.3
5.7
4.5
7.6
5.8
4.5
5.6
3.8
5.7
3.6
8.7
6.0
4.2
5.0
3.7
6.2
5.8
7.4
5.3
4.7
5.1
4.4
5.4
4.2
7.1
5.4
3.8
4.1
3.7
5.9
4.6
7.9
5.6
4.4
4.7
4.2
4.2
3.1
5.1
4.8
2.5
2.7
2.4
4.6
4.3
4.4
5.0
4.3
6.4
3.4
3.3
6.7
5.4
6.4
4.3
4.3
4.7
4.2
4.5
5.1
4.4
4.0
3.8
3.8
1 Gross product originating represents the value added by an industry
a fte r costs of m aterials and secondary products made in other industries
have been su btracted from to tal output.
2 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
ducers’ durable equipment as well as
continued strong growth in consumer dur
ables. On the other hand, the sector shares
of both nondurable and durable goods
manufacturing are projected to decline be
tween 1980 and 1985, reflecting the influ
ence of the declining shares of consumer
expenditures for goods and of national de
fense expenditures in total final demand.
For the nonmanufacturing sectors, the
projected 1980 and 1985 output estimates
show a continuation of the declines in the
output shares of mining and construction
and the increases in the shares of communi
cation, public utilities, and finance, insur
ance, and real estate. Transportation is pro
jected to maintain the same share it has
held historically. The output shares of the
three remaining sectors, other services,
wholesale trade, and retail trade, are pro
jected to increase only slightly to 1980 and
to decline between 1980 and 1985 as the
growth in goods, particularly durable goods,
moderates. The retail trade sector’s share
has been approximately 10.5 percent of the
SOURCE: H istorical data from U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce, Bureau
Econom ic analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statisti
projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
total private economy but this is projected
to decline in both 1980 and 1985, again re
flecting the declining percentage of personal
expenditures for consumer goods relative
to services. The output share of other ser
vices is projected to rise to 13.6 percent of
the private economy by 1985, although
historically it has ranged between 11.4 and
12.6 percent and in general has shown only
a modest increase over the 1955-68 period.
The projected increase in other services
reflects both the strong growth of consumer
expenditures on services for 1968-80, the
growth in intermediate demand for business
and professional services, and the declining
importance of defense expenditures in final
demand. Between 1980 and 1985 the in
crease for other services is a function of the
declining percentage of expenditures on
goods.
Projected changes for selected industries.
Moving from the viewpoint of major sectors
to a consideration of individual industries,
the projected average annual rates of
82
C h a rt 6
Gross Product Originating, Total Private Economy, by M ajor Sector,
1 9 5 5 ,1 9 6 8 ,1 9 7 2 , and Projected for 19 8 0 and 1985
Percent distribution
Includes mining, government enterprises, and rest of the world industry plus statistical discrepancy.
83
Percent
change in domestic output for 1968-80 vary
from a slight decline to a growth of almost
10 percent a year.6 On the other hand, for
2
the projected period 1980-85, the upper
range of industry expansion is only slightly
more than 7 percent a year. This projected
deceleration for 1980-85 relative to 1968-80
occurs in all but a few industries and re
flects the slowing of the overall rate of
growth in the economy after 1980.
The 1968-80 and 1980-85 growth trends
for the detailed industries are compared,
generally, with the historical period 195968 rather than with the 1955-68 period be
cause of data limitations. Detailed output
data by sector in a consistent series are
not available prior to 1958. However, using
1959-68 as a comparison period creates a
problem because the total private economy
grew by 4.6 percent a year during the
period compared with 3.8 percent a year
during 1955-68. Thus, although the pre
vious discussion has centered on the point
that the projections for 1968-80 show an
increase over the historical rate, when 195968 is the base, the 1968-80 projections will
imply a slowing for many sectors.
For 1959-68, changes in output in all
industries varied from a slight decline to an
increase of just over 14 percent a year.6
3
These rates are of course influenced by the
choice of terminal years for comparison. The
1959-68 trend reflects both the low level of
the 1958-59 recession and the high level of
Vietnam war spending in 1968. As a result,
projected growth rates between 1968 and
1980 appear low by comparison (table 41).
The most rapidly expanding industry for
1968-80 is miscellaneous transportation
equipment (industry 87), which covers mo
bile homes. Other industries in the most
rapidly expanding group for 1968-80 are
computers and peripheral equipment, air
transportation, plastic products, communi
cations (which includes telecommunica-
Table 4 1. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in domestic
output, 1968-80
Average annual
rates of c h a n g e 1
Industry
1 9 5 9 -6 8
87
71
44
37
97
79
73
99
91
39
1
Miscellaneous tran s p o rtatio n e q u ip m e n t
.............
13.2
Com puters and peripheral e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 .0
Plastic products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.1
Plastic m aterials and synthetic ru b b.e. r . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
7.7
Air tra n s p o rta tio. n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6
.
Telephone and telegraph a p p a ra tu .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
9.3
9.3
Service industry m achin es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
8.0
C om m unications, except radio and T. V. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie.s . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.. .
11.4
D ru g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7
1 9 68 -80
11 .5
11 .0
10.1
9.7
9.1
8.5
8.5
8.1
8.0
7.9
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
NOTE: O utput is th e gross duplicated value of production including
secondary products m ade in othe r industries, stated in 19 63 dollars. Industry
numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2.
SOURCE: H istorical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of C om
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1 9 6 3 dollars by Bureau of
Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor S tatistics .
tions), plastic materials, photographic
equipment (which includes photocopying
equipment), telephone apparatus, service
industry machines, and drugs.
The introduction and rapid assimilation
of computers and computer technology (in
dustry 71) into operations of both the pri
vate and public sectors have furnished the
U. S. economy with a dynamic new factor
Table 42. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in domestic
output, 1980-85
Average annual
rates of change 1
Industry
19 68 -80
7
91
97
101
71
82
8
81
79
112
The measure of output at the detailed industry 119
O ther nonferrous m etal ore m in in g
...................
5.5
8.0
Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie.s. . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Air tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 .1
Electric u tilitie. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9
.
Computers and peripheral e q u ip m e .n. t . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0
. .
O ther electrical m a c h in e.ry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2
..
Coal m in in .g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3
Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9
..
Telephone and telegraph a p p a ra tu s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5
7.2
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic .e. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 .2
1 9 80 -85
7.5
7.2
7.1
6.7
6.4
6.0
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.6
62
level is gross duplicated output rather than gross pro
duct originating. Gross duplicated output differs from
Compound interest rates between term inal years.
gross product originating in that it includes costs of
NOTE: O utput is the gross duplicated value of production including
materials and secondary products made in other indus
secondary products made in othe r industries, stated in 1 9 63 dollars. Industry
tries in addition to an industry’ s value added.
num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2.
6
3The growth rates for all industries are shown in
SOURCE: Bureau o f Labor Statistics
appendix C.
84
Table 43.
defense-related sectors whose markets are
expected to show only very modest growth.
Other industries such as the energy produc
ing sectors are there because of the assump
tion used in these projections concerning
petroleum imports as the means of meeting
the gap between energy supply and de
mand. Finally, other industries such as mo
tion pictures, tobacco products, and leather
and leather products are on the slowest
growing list because they are faced with
declining markets or increased competition
from substitutes.
Industries projected to grow most slowly in domestic
output, 1968-80
Average annual
rates of c h a n g e 1
Industry
1959-68
19
18
116
94
9
45
42
21
48
84
Other ordnance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.9
.
6.2
Guided missiles and space vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
Motion p ic tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -. .1. . 0
Local tran s it and inte rcity b u. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - .7
. .
Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6
1.1
Leather, footw ear, and leather p ro d u ............
c ts
Petroleum p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1
..
Tobacco m a nufacturing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
.9
3.1
...
Miscellaneous stone and clay products. . . . . . . . . . .
A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.1
19 68 -80
-4 .5
-.2
.6
.7
.9
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.7
Significant changes in industry growth
rates. The degree of slowdown projected
NOTE: O utput is the gross duplicated value of production including
for individual industries in 1968-80 relative
secondary products made in other industries, stated in 1963 dollars. Industry
to 1959-68 depends heavily on two factors.
numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2.
SOURCE: Historical data based on data from U.S. D epartm ent of Com For industries such as plastic products,
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, converted to 1963 dollars by Bureau of photographic equipment, and computers,
Labor Statistics; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
the ability to maintain earlier rapid growth
rates depends on the private market poten
tial for their products. This potential is still
in the last two decades. This industry ex
strong. For defense-related industries
panded 12 percent annually between 1959
growth is related to government programs
and 1968. Based on this growth, and the
covered by basic assumptions in this pro
expected use of computers in communica
jection series. Most of the defense-related
tions and data transmission along with
industries expanded dramatically during
myriad other applications, the computer
1965-68 and contracted precipitously dur
industry is projected to continue its expan
ing 1968-71, paralleling Vietnam war spend
sion, although at slightly slower rates of
ing. Thus, for these industries, the 1972-80
11.0 percent a year during 1968-80 and 6.4
percent a year in 1980-85. (See tables 41
and 42.)
The growth in the output of plastic pro
Table 44. Industries projected to grow most slowly in domestic
output, 1980-85
ducts (industry 44) during the 1960’s was
equally impressive— 14 percent a year be
Average annual
tween 1959 and 1968. This expansion re
rates of c h a n g e 1
Industry
flected the introduction and use of plastic
19 68 -80 1980-85
products as inputs to many other producing
industries, such as chemical products, agri
9 Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.9
-0 .2
96 W ater tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.4
.3
cultural chemicals, packaging, and automo
. .
85 Ship and boat building and re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.9
.4
biles, as well as for a wide range of end21 Tobacco m anu fac tu rin .g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 7
.
.6
products. Based on a continued rapid
94 Local transit and inte rcity b u. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
.7
.6
116 M otion p ic tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
1.1
growth in demand for plastic as inputs to
93 Railroad tra n s p o rta tio .n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4
.
1.2
other sectors, the plastic industry is pro
45 Leather, footw ear, and leather p roduc ts
............
1.1
1.5
jected to grow 10 percent a year between
42 Petroleum p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.5
1.5
5 Iron ore m in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.5
1.6
1968 and 1980 but to slow appreciably dur
ing* 1980-85 to a rate of 5.5 percent a year.
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
Compound interest rates between term inal years.
At the other end of the spectrum are
those industries projected to grow slowly in
1968-80 and 1980-85 (tables 43 and 44). A
number of the industries on the list are
NOTE: O utput is the gross duplicated value of production including
secondary products made in other industries, stated in 1963 dollars. Industry
numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix table A-2.
SOURCE:
85
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Table 45.
Industries with significant projected changes in domestic output growth rates from 1959-68 to 1968-80
Growth r a t e s '
Industry
Growth rates '
Industry
19 59 -68
Projected
1968-80
Industries with decrease in growth rate of m ore than
3 percentage points:
6.2
18 Guided missiles and space vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
19 O ther ord n a n ce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12.9
38 S ynthetic fib e r. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.5
.
44 Plastic p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14.1
57 Miscellaneous nonferrous m etal p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . 5.5
78 Radio and television s e.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8
.
80 O ther electronic com m un ication e q u ip m .......
ent
12.1
81 Electronic co m p o n e n.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.7
.
90 O ptical and ophth alm ic e q u ip m e .n .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
10.1
11.4
91 Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie.s . . . . . . . . . . .
.. .
97 Air tra n s p o rta tio. n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.6
.
102 Gas u tilitie.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5
.
- 0.2
- 4.5
5.2
10.1
2.0
3.5
3.3
6.9
4.6
8.0
9.1
2.3
Industries with decrease in growth rate of between 1
and 3 percentage points:
..
9 Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6
5.6
. .
13 New nonresidential b u ild in g. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15 New streets and h ig h w a y s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1
7.9
.........
23 Miscellaneous textiles and flo o r coverings
.
7.3
24 Hosiery and knit goo d.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30 O ther fu r n itu r e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6
42 Petroleum p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1
3.1
. ..
48 Miscellaneous stone and clay p ro d u c.ts . . . . . . . . . .
3.1
....
49 Blast furnaces and basic steel products . . . . . . . . .
50 Iron and steel foundries and forging s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2
53 Other prim ary and secondary nonferrous m e tal.... 5.3
6.8
. .
55 Alum inum rolling and d ra w in.g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.6
.
66 M ateria l handling e q u ip m e.n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
67 M etalw orking m achinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
5.5
68 Special industry m a c h in e.ry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
5.0
6.5
70 Machine shop p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
71 Computers and peripheral e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.0
6.5
..
76 Household applian ces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
83 M otor v e h icles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7
.9
3.5
.1
5.2
5.8
4.5
1.5
1.7
1.9
1.8
2.5
4.6
5.3
3.7
3.4
3.9
11.0
4.2
4.2
19 59 -68 Projected
1968-80
Industries with decrease in growth rate of between 1
and 3 percentage points: Continued
84 A ir c r a ft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1
..
87 Miscellaneous trans portatio n e q u ip m e n t
...........
13.2
89 Medical and dental in s tru m e n .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3
. .
100 Radio and TV broadcasting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2
103 W ater and sanitary services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3
110 Hotels and lodging places. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7
114 Miscellaneous professional s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6
120 Educational s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.5
1.7
11.5
7.0
1.8
2.3
3.5
5.4
4.0
Industries with increase in growth rate of more than 1
percentage point:
1.4
1 Livestock and livestock p ro d u c. ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
3 Forestry and fis h eries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
.5
6 Copper ore m in in.g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3
.
7 Other nonferrous m etal ore m in in. g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
1.3
3.0
10 Stone and clay mining and q u a rry in. g. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
12 New residential b u ild in g s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
16 All other new c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- .1 . 4
27 Logging, sawm ills, and planing m ills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6
7.7
37 Plastic m aterials and synthetic ru b b.e. r . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
41 P a in t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 .0
.
2.5
47 Cem ent, clay, and concrete p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
52 Prim ary a lu m in u m. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8
..
2.1
59 Heating apparatus and plum bing fix tu re s
...........
5.0
..
63 Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to. rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
77 Electric lighting and w irin.g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5
. .
85 Ship and boat building and r e p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
4.0
2.4
88 Scientific and controlling in s tru m en.ts . . . . . . . . . . .
. ..
-.7
94 Local tran s it and intercity bus tra n s p o rta tio n
....
95 Truck tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.6
96 W ater tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
.
115 A utom obile re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0
116 M otion p ic tu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-.1 . 0
.
2.9
3.4
6.2
5.5
4.1
3.7
2.2
3.4
9.7
4.0
4.2
7.5
4.1
7.2
6.0
6.9
3.7
.7
4.7
2.4
4.8
.6
1 Average annual rates of change com puted as compound interest
SOURCE
H istorical data based on data from U S. D epartm ent of C o m
rates between term in al years.
m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor S ta
tistics.
NOTE: O utput is gross duplicated output in 1963 dollars. Industry n u m
bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix table A-2.
outlook would be entirely different from the
1968-80 outlook.
In a few industries, output growth be
tween 1968 and 1980 is projected to accele
rate. These industries are projected to ex
pand at a rate over 1 percentage point
faster than during 1959-68 (table 45). Some
of these industries are heating apparatus
and plumbing fixtures; engines, turbines,
and generators; cement, clay, and concrete
products; logging, sawmills, and planing
mills; electric lighting and wiring; and scien
tific and controlling instruments. The accele
ration reflects the impact of expanding resi
dential and nonresidential construction
activity. An additional factor in the expan
sion of these industries is the increasing
use of batteries in a wide range of indus
trial and consumer applications. The other
nonferrous metal ore mining industry (in
dustry 7) is projected to grow at a rate 4
percentage points faster in 1968-80 than
in 1959-68. This output surge reflects the
demand for lead as a major component of
batteries and uranium as an energy source.
The forestry and fisheries industry (industry
3) is projected to grow at a faster pace in
the future. This acceleration reflects both
the low fish yields of 1967-68 and the pro
jected 1980 demand for lumber (stumpage
sales is the major product of the forestry
industry).
The greatest slowdowns in the projected
growth of industries in 1968-80 relative to
their 1959-68 growth rates, apart from
defense-related industries, are in synthetic
fibers, radio and television sets, optical and
ophthalmic equipment, plastic products, and
communication equipment. These industries
are projected to expand at a rate approxi
mately 4 percentage points less on an an
nual basis than their historical rate. How
ever, it is important to note that most of
these industries are still among the 20
fastest growing in 1968-80. These same
industries, plus computers, photographic
equipment, service industry machines, and
miscellaneous textiles and floor coverings,
are projected to have the greatest slow
down in 1980-85 relative to both 1959-68
and 1968-80. These slowdowns reflect the
slow growth in the final demand categories
of investment expenditures and consumer
goods plus the resulting slow growth of
intermediate demand between 1980 and
1985. The energy-related industries — crude
petroleum, refined petroleum, and gas utili
ties— are projected to grow much more
slowly in 1968-80 relative to 1959-68 but
to show no additional slowdown in the 198085 period. This reflects the assumptions
used in these projections that increases in
demands for energy are to be met by im
ports between 1968 and 1980 but that the
gap between supply and demand for petro
leum products in 1980-85 is to be met to a
greater extent from domestic sources.6
4
A few industries are projected to accele
rate in output growth rates between 1980
and 1985, relative to the 1968-80 period.
(See table 46.) The defense-related indus
tries— guided missiles and space vehicles,
other ordnance, radio and TV transmitting
equipment, and aircraft — are in this cate
gory. (This increase is a result of using
1968-80 and 1980-85 as reference points.
If 1972-80 were used, no defense-related
industry would show a speedup in 1980-85.)
The aircraft industry turnaround reflects the
demand for civilian aircraft. The impact of
gearing up to use nuclear fuel for energy,
that is, the lead-time for uranium, causes
the primary nonferrous metals, miscella
neous nonferrous metal products, and nonferrous meted mining industries to accele
rate in 1980-85. The coal mining industry
also reverses its trend as energy demand
focuses on the consumption of fossil fuels.
The automobile industry has fluctuated
historically, with good and bad model years.
This industry is projected to maintain its
long-term rate through 1980 and to slow to
a rate of 2.6 percent a year through 1985.
The 1968 model year was a relatively good
year for the industry. Thus, a slowdown is
projected in 1968-80 compared to 1959-68.
Nevertheless, the industry is expected to
expand at an annual rate of 4.2 percent.
The further reduction in the projected
growth in automobile output reflects many
factors — urban congestion, pollution, ener
gy problems, and the slowdown in growth of
the younger age groups in the population.
Productivity
This section discusses the link, produc
tivity, needed to convert industry output
projections into employment. In the se
quence, the output projections for 1980 and
1985 are converted into projections of total
man-hours. Next, projections of each indus
try’ s productivity, that is, output per man
hour, are used to develop employment pro
jections by industry.
Major sector productivity trends. As noted
in the introduction and chapter 1, produc
tivity for the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors is set by assumption — in the
case of these projections, to grow at annual
rates of 5.5 percent and 2.7 percent, respec
tively, covering both the periods 1968-80
and 1980-85. (See table 47.) These growth
rates are consistent with the 1955-68 trend
for these two major sectors. However, while
the major sectors are projected to follow
historical trends, the sector-by-sector pro
ductivity projections do not necessarily dup-
64,See Introduction and note on p. x for a discussion
of the energy assumptions.
87
Table 46. Industries with significant projected changes in domestic output growth rates from 1968-80 to 1980-85
Growth rates !
Industry
Growth rates 1
Projected
1968-80
Industry
1980-85
Industries with decrease in growth rate of more than
3 percentage points:
6 Copper o rt m in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.2
................
37 Plastic m aterials and synthetic ru b b e r
9.7
39 D ru g s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9
.
44 Plastic products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1
..
71 Com puters and peripheral e q u ip m e .n. t . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.0
. .
73 Service industry m a chines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5
..
85 Ship and boat building and r e p a ir . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9
87 M iscellaneous transportatio n e q u ip m e.n.t. . . . . . . . . 11.5
. .
2.7
4.3
4.8
5.5
6.4
4.4
.4
3 .6
Industries with decrease in growth rate of between 1
and 3 percentage points:
1 Livestock and livestock p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9
2 Crops and other agricultural products
.................
2.9
..
3 Forestry and fis h eries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4
5 Iron ore m in in.g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5
.
9 Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
10 Stone and clay m ining and q u a rry in. g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
4.1
11 Chemical and fe rtilize r m ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (T3
...
.
14 New public u tilitie. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4
21 Tobacco m anu fac tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7
23 M iscellaneous textiles and floor coverings
...........
5.2
24 Hosiery and knit goo d s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8
5.4
26 Miscellaneous fab ricated tex tile p ro d u ...........
c ts
...
3.4
27 Logging, sawm ills, and planing m ills. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
28 M illw ork, p hywood and other wood p roduc. ts. . .
. ..
5.1
.
29 Household fu r n itu r .e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8
30 Other fu r n itu r. e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5
.
31 Paper p ro d u c ts... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.7
32 P ap erb o ard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 .3
.
34 P rin tin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 .4
.
35 Chem ical p roduc ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.9
36 Agricultural ch em ic als. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6
38 Synthetic fib e r.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2
.
40 Cleaning and to ile t p re p a ra tio .n. .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.5
41 P a in.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0
..
4 3 Rubber p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4
47 Cem ent, clay, and concrete p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
4,2
51 Primary copper m etals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4
52 Primary a lu m in u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.5
...
56 Other nonferrous rolling and draw ing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.8
Projected
19 68 -80
1.0
1.5
1.6
1.6
-.2
3.0
3.7
3.3
.6
3.1
3.6
3.1
1.9
3.1
2.3
2.4
3.1
2.8
3.2
4.2
3.8
3.8
4.6
2.6
3.3
3.2
2.8
5.2
3,7
1980-85
Industries with decrease in growth rates ot between
1 and 3 percentage points—Continued
58 M etal co ntain e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 5
60 Fabricated structural m e ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8
61 Screw m achine p io d u c.ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2
..
63 Engines, turbines, and ge n erato.rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
7.2
65 Construction, m ining, and oilfield m achin ......
ery
4.3
68 Special industry m a c h in e ry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4
7.0
72 Typewriters and other office m a ch in. es . . . . . . . . . .
...
75 Electric industrial a p p a ra tu. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0
. .
79 Telephone and telegraph ap p a ra tu s
..................
8.5
81 Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9
..
83 M o tor ve h ic le.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2
.
54
86 Railroad and other transportation e q u ip m .....
ent
89 Medical and dental in s tru m en ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0
93 Railroad tra n s p o rta tio .n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4
.
95 Truck tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.7
96 W ater tra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4
97 Air tra n s p o rta tio. n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1
.
8.1
99 Com m unications, except radio and T.V. . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
104 W holesale tr a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.9
105 Retail tra d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .2
106 F in a n c .e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5
109 Other real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.4
112 Miscellaneous business servic .es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
7.2
113 Advertising. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.3
115 A utom obile re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8
.
117 Other a m u s e m e n .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7
.
118 Health services except h o s p ita. ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
5.6
119 H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2
.
122 Post O ffic e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 .2
2.1
3.3
2.0
4.9
2.9
2.0
4.6
4.0
5.7
5.8
2.6
3.5
5.5
1.2
3.0
3
7.1
5.3
2.9
3.0
4.4
3.2
5.6
2.2
2.7
2.7
3.7
5.6
4.1
Industries with increase in growth rate of more than
1 percentage point:
7 O ther n o n ' j u s m etal ore m in in g
,
....... . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.5
8 C o a lm in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.3
15 New streets and h igh w ays. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
16 All other new c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2
18 Guided missiles and space vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - . 2
...
19 Other ordnance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - .4. . 5
.
53 Other prim ary and secondary nonferrous m e ta l. .. 2.5
84 A ir c r a ft
............. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7
7.5
5.8
1.4
3.8
3.8
3.3
3.7
36
' Average annual rates of change computed as compound interest
SOURCE: H istorical data based on data from D epa rtm ent of Com
U
.S.
rates between term in al years.
m erce, Bureau of Economic Analysis: projections by Bureau of Labor S ta
tistics.
NOTE: O utput is gross duplicated outpu t in 1963 dollars. Industry n u m
bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2.
down reflects the impact of a limited re
vival of underground mining as well as
more stringent safety regulations and a
greater use of marginal oil wells. The re
maining major sectors are projected to dif
fer only moderately from their historical
trends in productivity growth. Any down
ward or upward productivity adjustments
reflect the movement of individual indus
tries within the sector. For example, pro-
licate their respective 1955-68 trends. For
example, productivity for mining is pro
jected to grow at not quite 1 percent a year
during 1968-80 compared to 3.7 percent a
year between 1955 and 1968.6 This slow5
65The productivity projections by major sector re
flect the summation of projections of output per man-hour
made at the industry level. No explicit sector projections
were made except in agriculture.
88
Table 47.
Productivity change by sector, selected periods, actual and projected, 1948-85
Average annual rates of change 1
Sector
Projected
1 9 48 -68
1955-68
19 65 -72
1972-80
1968-85
1968-80
1980-85
Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.2
3.0
2.6
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.8
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 .8
.
N onagriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 .7
.
M ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .0
C ons truc tion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 )
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9
D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 )
N ond u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (. 2 )
(2 )
.. .
Transportation, co m m unication, and public u tilitie.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2
C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6
Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8
T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.8
.
W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 2 )
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 )
Finance, insurance, and real es ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 2 )
..
Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 )
Governm ent e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 2 )
5.5
2.6
3.7
(2 )
2.7
2.3
3.2
4.7
3.6
5.8
5.1
2.9
3.5
2.5
(2 )
(2 )
(2 )
4.5
2.4
2.3
(2 )
3.1
2.4
3.9
4.5
3.4
5.2
3.9
2.5
3.0
2.1
(2 )
(2 )
(2 )
6.1
3.0
.9
1.5
2.7
3.2
2.0
4.6
4.1
5.6
4.6
3.1
3.2
3.0
2.7
3.6
2.4
5.5
2.7
.9
.8
2.9
3.0
2.9
4.4
3.5
5.3
4.3
2.7
2.5
2.6
1.6
2.5
2.8
5.5
2.7
.8
.8
3.1
3.2
2.9
4.5
3.6
5.4
4.3
2.7
2.7
2.6
1.4
2.6
2.7
5.5
2.7
.9
.7
2.6
2.4
2.9
4.1
3.1
4.9
4.3
2.5
2.1
2.7
2.0
2.4
3.0
1 1948-68 based on linear least squares trend method; all other periods are compound interest rates between term inal years.
NOTE: Productivity data are gross national product (1 9 6 3 dollars)
man-hour.
SOURCE:
2 Not available.
ductivity in durable goods manufacturing
is projected to grow only 2.4 percent a year
during 1980-85, compared to 3.2 percent
a year in 1968-80. The output growth rates
of durable goods industries having high pro
ductivity growth rates, such as computers
and photographic equipment, are projected
to slow considerably during 1980-85 rela
tive to 1968-80. Therefore, these individual
industries do not account for as much of
the durable manufacturing productivity
gains in the 1980-85 period as they did in
the 1968-80 period.
productivity growth. This method was desir
able for two reasons: First, several indus
tries are projected to have considerably
slower output growth in 1968-80 than in
1959-68 (for example, computers and plas
tic products); second, almost all the indus
tries are projected to have slower output
expansion during 1980-85 than in 1968-80.
The regression analysis showed productivity
by industry to be sensitive to output
changes. However, as the projection se
quence progressed, this approach was large
ly abandoned for two reasons: First, the
responsiveness of productivity changes to
output fluctuations was judged to be too
great to be consistent with long-term trends;
second, these cyclical responses to the pro
jected 1980-85 output slowdowns would be
inconsistent with the macromodel assump
tion that the rate of overall growth in
productivity in the nonfarm economy would
be the same.
The second approach to industry pro
ductivity assumes that each industry dupli
cates its 1958-70 productivity trend in both
projected periods, 1968-80 and 1980-85.
This trend was derived by regressing the
ratio "output per man-hour” against the
Industry productivity projections. The pro
jections of productivity growth used here
(table 48) followed three basic approaches:
regression analysis, which expresses pro
ductivity as a function of time and an in
dustry’s domestic output; a 1958-70 regres
sion of productivity against time; and sub
jective judgment when the projected growth
in output differed significantly from histori
cal trends.
The first approach, regression analysis,
was attempted in an effort to separate cycli
cal responses of productivity to output
fluctuations from the long-term trend in
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
89
Table 48. Range of industry productivity (output per man-hour) projections, 1968-80
GROW TH O F LES S TH AN
6
9
12-17
18
25
29
32
33
46
48
50
51
61
62
94
96
100
102
103
106
107
109
110
111
112
113
115
116
117
118
121
2
P ER C EN T A YEAR
GROW TH O F B ET W EEN
2
AN D 4 P ER C EN T A YEAR
GROW TH O F M O R E TH A N 4 P ER C EN T A Y EA R
Copper ore mining
3 Forestry and fisheries
1
Crude petroleum
6 Copper ore mining
2
New construction and maintenance and repair 8 Coal mining
5
Guided missiles and space vehicles
10 Stone and clay mining and quarrying
7
Apparel
19 Other ordnance
11
Household furniture
20 Food products
23
Paperboard
21 Tobacco manufacturing
23
Publishing
22 Fabric, yarn, and thread mills
26
Glass
28 Millwork, plywood and other wood products
27
Miscellaneous stoneand clay products
30 Other furniture
34
Iron and steel foundries and forgings
31 Paper products
35
Primary copper metals
38 Synthetic fibers
36
Screw machine products
40 Cleaning and toile t preparations
37
Other fabricated metal products
41 Paint
39
Local transit and intercity bus
42 Petroleum products
44
Water transportation
43 Rubber products
52
Radio and TV broadcasting
45 Leather, footwear, and leather products
63
Gas utilities
47 Cement, clay, and concrete products
72
Water and sanitary services
49 Blast furnaces and basic steel products
73
Finance
54 Copper rolling and drawing
78
Insurance
55 Aluminum rolling and drawing
80
Other real estate
56 Other nonferrous rolling and drawing
81
Hotels and lodging places
57 Miscellaneous nonferrous metal products
82
Other personal services
58 Metal containers
84
Miscellaneous business services
59 Heating apparatus and plumbing fixtures
87
Advertising
60 Fabricated structural metal.
91
64 Farm machinery
Automobile repair
93
Motion pictures
65 Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery 97
Other amusements
66 Material handling equipment
99
Health services except hospitals
67 Metalworking machinery
101
Nonprofit organizations
68 Special industry machinery
69 General industrial machinery
70 Machine shop products
71 Computers and peripheral equipment
74 Electric transmission equipment
75 Electrical industrial: apparatus
76 Household appliances
77 Electric lighting and wiring
83 Motor vehicles
85 Ship and boat building and repair
86 Railroad andothertransportationequipm ent
88 Scientific and controlling instruments
90 Optical and ophthalmic equipment
92 Miscellaneous manufactured products
95 Truck transportation
98 Othertransportation
104 Wholesale trade
105 Retail trade
114 Miscellaneous professional services
119 Hospitals
120 Educational services
Livestock and livestock products
Crops and other agricultural products
Iron ore mining
Other nonferrous metal ore mining
Chemical and fertilizer mining
Miscellaneous textiles and floor coverings
Hosiery and knit goods
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products
Logging, sawmills, and planing mills
Printing
Chemical products
Agricultural chemicals
Plastic materials and synthetic rubber
Drugs
Plastic products
Primary aluminum
Engines, turbines, and generators
Typewriters and other office machines
Service industry machines
Radio and television sets
Other electronic communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery
Aircraft
Miscellaneous transportation equipm ent
Photographic equipment and supplies
Railroad transportation
Air transportation
Communications, except radio and TV
Electric utilities
NOTE: O utput per m an-hour as used in this tab le is gross duplicated Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2.
o utpu t (1 9 6 3 dollars) per m an-hour, covering hours of self-em ployed and
unpaid fam ily workers as well as wage and salary workers. In the great SOURCE: Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
m a jority of industries the same rate of productivity growth was projected for
1 9 80 -85 as fo r 19 6 8 -8 0 .
90
Table 49. Changes in average annual hours by major sector, selected periods, actual and projected, 1948-85
Average annual rates of change 1
Sector
Projected
1948-68
Tota l p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - .0 . . 4
. .
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . . 6
N onagriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . . .3
M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
C on s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . .3
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 2 )
D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( . 3 )
.
N o n d u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 3 )
Tran sportation, co m m unication, and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ( 3 )
T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- . 2
.
.
C o m m u n ic a tio n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-.. 1
T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . .5
W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( . 3 )
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (. .3 )
.
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - . 2
..
O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-. . 6
1
ods are
2
3
19 48 -68 based on linear least squares trend method; all other pericom pound interest rates between term inal years.
Less than .05 percent a year.
Not available.
variable "time.” For the industries, several
in number, with a considerably lower pro
jected output trend between 1968 and 1980
relative to 1959-68, the historical produc
tivity trend was adjusted moderately down
ward. Plastic products and air transporta
tion are two examples where this procedure
was followed (table 45). This second ap
proach is consistent with the macromodel’s
assumption of a single productivity rate in
the nonagricultural sector, despite the pro
jected lower output growth in the second
period, 1980-85, relative to 1968-80.6
6
The third approach, a subjective judg
ment, was needed for those industries
whose projected output was significantly
different from historical trends. The defenserelated industries (guided missiles, other
ordnance, aircraft, etc.) expanded and con
tracted with Vietnam war spending. The
projections of output for these industries
assume a stable growth of peacetime de
fense expenditures. Therefore, these pro
jections differ substantially from their his
torical patterns. The output growth rates
-0 .5
- .5
- .4
- .2
- .1
- .1
- .1
- .1
- .1
- .2
( 2 )
( 2 )
-
.7
.2
- 1.0
- .3
- .7
-
0.4
- .2
- .4
.5
- i
( 2 )
1.0
- .1
-.1
- .1
1.0
1.0
- .8
- .2
-1 .0
- .2
- .6
-0 .6
- .7
- .6
( 2 )
-
0.3
-
-0 .3
.5
.3
.?
-
-
( 2 )
.4
.2 . ( 2 )
( 2)
.2
.1
( 2 )
.3
( 2 )
.4
- .1
.5
.1
(2 )
( 2 )
- .5
- 1.0
- .4
- .1
- 1.2
- .7
- .2
- .1
- .6
- .4
.5
.3
.1
- .1
- 0.3
- .5
- .3
.1
- 1
-0 .3
-
.5
.3
.1
- .1
( 2 )
( 2)
( 2 )
( 2)
( 2)
( 2)
( 2)
( 2)
( 2)
-.1
- :1
-
- .1
- .1
.1
.1
( 2)
( 2 )
( 2)
( 2)
( 2)
( 2 )
-
-
.6
.1
.8
.1
- .4
.6
.1
.8
.1
- .6
- .1
- .8
- .1
- .4
- .4
SOURCE: Historical and projected data from U.S. D epartm ent of L
Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
of energy-related industries such as crude
oil, refined petroleum, and gas utilities are
projected to slow considerably in 1968-80
as increased demands are assumed to be
met by imports. However, the energy in
dustries were projected to show a slight
acceleration in output in 1980-85 as in
creases in energy demands were again to
be met more by domestic resources. There
fore, the productivity projections for these
industries differ from historical patterns.
Average hours
Average hours in the agriculture sector
(on an "hours paid for” basis) are projected
to decline 0.5 percent a year during 196885.6 The workweek in the nonagricultural
7
sector is projected to decline 0.3 percent a
year (table 49). Average weekly hours by
6
7After selecting a set of industry productivity pro
jections and using the projections of final demand and
industry growth rates, a man-hour change by industry
between 1968 and 1980 and 1985 was projected. This
section provides the final link, average weekly hours, in
converting the output projections into employment. The
previous section discussed the conversion of projections
into total man-hours by sector and industry.
66 In the final projections the 1980-85 productivity
growth for some industries does not equal the 1968-80
rate. This occurs because of the balancing procedures.
1955-68 19 59 -68 1965-72 19 72 -80 1968-85 19 68 -80 1980-85
91
tors are projected to take place. However,
these shifts need not parallel the previously
discussed output shifts by major sector, due
to the differences in sectoral productivity
and average weekly hours projected. How
ever, to a considerable extent the projected
employment distributions are continuations
of the postwar patterns, with several nota
ble exceptions. Within the total civilian
economy, the historical and projected em
ployment shares show a steady movement
to the government sector from the private
sector (chart 7). Most of the public sector
growth is State and local as civilian em
ployment in the Federal Government is
projected to equal only its 1968 level by
1985. State and local government employ
ment, on the other hand, is projected to
show the most rapid growth of any sector.
Still, the State and local employment growth
rate is slower than its historical trend. The
slower growth in State and local government
employment reflects the slower growth pro
jected for grants-in-aid to State and local
governments and the smaller number of
children of school age.
Within the private economy, the histori
cal and projected employment shares show
a steady movement from agriculture to the
nonagricultural sector of the econorpy. With
in the nonagricultural sectors, employment
shares are projected to continue the his
torical movement toward nonmanufacturing
away from manufacturing. Manufacturing’s
employment share has not fluctuated like
its output share since its cyclical patterns
of productivity and average weekly hours
tend to dampen the employment impact of
changes in manufacturing output. For exam
ple, between 1968 and 1972, nondurable
manufacturing increased its output share
but its employment share declined. This
sector’s output growth was not translated
into employment growth because of pro
ductivity growth and a very small increase
in average weekly hours. Manufacturing’s
employment share is projected to remain
stable from 1972 to 1980, as durable manu
facturing recovers its share at the expense
of nondurable manufacturing. However, the
employment shares of the two manufactur
ing sectors decline from 1980 to 1985,
sector are projected to continue their his
torical trends of 1955-68, with only a few
exceptions. These exceptions are retail
trade and other services, which historically
have had the more rapid declines in hours.
The declines in the workweek for these two
sectors are projected to moderate slightly.
The workweek in mining is projected to
expand less rapidly, reflecting some upper
bounds of the workweek.
The projected rates of change in average
weekly hours for individual industries were
assumed to be the same as for the major
sector to which they belong. It was found
that the detailed projections of average
weekly hours by industry provided little in
the way of additional information (but add
ed considerably to calculations). For exam
ple, average hours in the manufacturing in
dustries fluctuate from year to year but
have no perceptible long-term trend.
Employment
The economy is projected to generate
20.7 million new jobs between 1968 and
1980, or approximately 1.7 million a year
(2.1 million a year in 1972-80).6
8
Be
tween 1980 and 1985 an additional 6.0
million jobs will be generated, or approxi
mately 1.2 million a year (table 50). These
employment projections compare with the
15.2 million jobs, or 1.2 million a year,
generated from 1955 to 1968. The pro
jected increases in the number of jobs, in
terms of annual growth rates, are 1.9 per
cent for 1968-80 and 1.2 percent for 198085, compared with 1.6 percent for 195568 .
Shifts in major sectors. Shifts in the relative
importance of the major employment sec68The projections of industry productivity and aver
age weekly hours, along with the projections of final de
mand and industry growth rates, gave projected employ
ment changes between 1968, 1980, and 1985. The
employment projections— just as with average hours,
productivity, and output— were done separately for 134
sectors and then summed to get the major sector detail
discussed in this section.
92
reflecting the projected output slowdown of
these two nic~jor sectors. Durable manufacturing’s employment share would have dedined even further except for its projected
productivity slowdown, which reflects the
slower output growth of the high productivity industries in this sector such as computers and photographic equipment.
Within the nonmanufacturing sectors,
Table 50.
projected employment as a percentage of
total civilian employment reflects the continuation of historical declines in mining,
construction,
and transportation, and
increases in finance,
insurance, and
real estate, and other services. Three
sectors, communication, public utilities,
and wholesale trade, are projected to
maintain their stable historical share of
Total em ploym ent (co un ting jobs rather than w orkers) by m ajor sector, selected years 195 5-7 2 and projected for
1980 and 1985
Projected
■
Sector
1955
1958
1959
1963
1965
1968
1970
1971
1972
1980
1985
Thousands of jobs
Total 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
G o ve rn m en .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
A gricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N onagriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C ons truc tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N ond u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tran sportation, com m unication. and public u tilitie s ....
Tran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C o m m u n ic atio n
...........
Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . .
.
T ra d e ...............................
W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and
real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
65 ,74 5
6,914
58,831
6,434
52,397
832
3,582
17,309
9,782
7,527
6 6 ,02 9
7,839
5 8 ,19 0
5,5 4 0
5 2 .6 5 0
787
3,533
16.344
9,051
7,294
6 7 ,8 2 0
8,0 8 3
5 9 ,73 7
5,519
5 4 ,2 1 8
767
3,706
17,04 2
9,516
7,558
7 0 ,72 9
9 ,2 2 5
6 1 ,5 0 4
4,7 1 2
5 6 .7 9 2
670
3,755
17,39 0
9,835
7,556
74 ,55 2
10 .07 4
6 4 ,4 7 8
4 ,3 3 8
6 0 ,1 4 0
667
4,0 0 0
18,45 2
10,624
7,828
8 0 ,9 2 6
11,845
69,08 1
3,816
6 5 ,2 6 5
640
4,0 3 8
2 0 ,1 3 8
1 1 ,82 8
8,310
8 3 ,2 7 3
12,535
7 0 ,7 4 3
3,422
6 7 .3 1 6
660
4 ,1 5 8
19 ,70 5
11,404
8,301
8 3 .3 2 9
12,856
7 0 ,73 8
3,353
6 7 .1 2 0
C39
4 ,216
18,88 2
10.772
8.110
85 ,59 7 101,576
13,29 0 16,610
72 ,30 7 8 4 ,96 6
3 ,450
2.300
6 8 ,85 7 8 2 ,66 6
645
665
4 ,9 0 8
4 ,3 5 2
19,281 2 2 ,92 3
11,091 13.629
9,294
8 ,1 9 0
10 7,6 09
18,800
8 8 .80 9
1,900
8 6 ,9 0 9
632
5,184
2 3 ,49 9
14,154
9.345
4,353
2.918
832
603
13,201
3,063
10,138
4,189
2,703
864
622
13,545
3,126
10,419
4,201
2,743
837
621
13,846
3,229
10,66 4
4 ,113
2 ,663
828
622
14,341
3,397
10 ,94 5
4 ,249
2,7 2 8
885
636
15 ,33 4
3,596
11 ,73 8
4,519
2,868
986
665
16,655
3,894
12,761
4,7 2 2
2,895
1,125
702
17,56 9
4 ,098
13,471
4,671
2,8 3 6
1,128
707
17,870
4 ,097
13,77 3
4 ,7 2 6
2,8 4 2
1,150
734
18,43 2
4 ,235
14,19 7
5,321
3 ,2 5 0
1,300
771
2 1 ,69 5
4.9 4 6
16,749
5,3 6 8
3,266
1,312
790
22,381
5,123
17.258
2,652
10.468
2,830
11,422
2,8 9 3
11,763
3,212
1 3 ,31 0
3,369
14,069
3 ,720
15 ,55 5
4 ,0 3 8
16,466
4,1 5 4
16,688
4 .3 0 3
1 7 ,11 8
5 ,3 4 9
2 1 ,8 1 5
5,9 3 2
2 3 ,9 1 3
Percent distribution
T o ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
100.0
G ove rn m en .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.5
89.5
Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A gricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.8
N o na griculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
79.7
M ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
5.4
C on s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g
..................
26.3
D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.9
N o n d u ra b le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11.5
Tran sportation, com m unica6.6
tion, and public u tilitie s ....
4.4
T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C o m m u n ic a tio n
...........
1.3
Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . .
.
.9
T ra d e ...............................
20.1
4.7
W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15.4
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and
4.0
real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15.9
Other services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
i— -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - See footnotes at end of table
100.0
11.9
88.1
8.4
79.7
1.2
5.4
24.8
13.7
11.0
100.0
13.0
87 .0
6.7
80 .3
.9
5.3
24.6
13.9
10.7
100.0
13.5
86 .5
5.8
80.7
.9
5.4
24.8
14.3
10.5
100.0
14.6
85.4
4.7
80.6
.8
5.0
24.9
14.6
10.3
100.0
15.1
84 .9
4.1
80 .8
.8
5.0
23.7
13.7
10.0
100.0
15.4
84 .6
4.0
8 0 ,5
.8
5.1
22 .7
12.9
19.7
100.0
15.5
8 4 .5
4.0
80 .4
.8
5.1
22 .5
13.0
9.6
100.0
16.4
83 .6
2.3
81 .4
.7
4.8
22 .6
13.4
9.1
100.0
17.5
82 .5
1.8
80 .8
.6
4.8
21 .8
13.2
8.7
6.3
4.1
1.3
.9
20.5
4.7
15.8
100.0
11.9
88.1
8.1
79.9
1.1
5.5
25.1
14.0
11.1
•\
6.2
4.0
1.2
.9
20.4
4.7
15.7
5.8
3.8
1.2
.9
20 .3
4 4 .8
15.5
5.7
3.7
1.2
.9
20.6
4.9
15.7
5.6
3.5
1.2
.8
21.6
4.8
15.8
5.7
3.5
1.4
.8
21.1
4.9
16.2
5.6
3.4
1.4
.8
21 .4
4.9
16.5
5.5
3.3
1.3
.9
21.5
4.9
16.6
5.2
3.2
1.3
.8
21 .4
4.9
16.5
5.0
3.0
1.2
.7
20 .8
4.8
16.0
4.3
17.3
4.3
17.3
4.5
18.8
4.5
18.9
4.6
19.2
4.9
19.8
5.0
20 .0
5.0
20 .0
5.3
21 .5
5.5
22 .2
93
Table 50.
T otal em p loym ent (co un ting jobs rath er than w orkers) by m ajor sector, selected years 195 5-7 2 and projected for
1980 and 1985—Continued
Average annual rates of change 2
Sector
19 55 -68
1965-72
1972-80
1968-85
1968-80
1 9 80 -85
1.6
4.2
1.2
- 3.9
1.7
- 2.0
.9
1.2
1.5
.8
2.0
4.3
1.6
- 4.0
2.1
- 2.0
1.0
1.9
2.4
1.1
2.0
4.0
1.7
- 3.2
2.0
-.5
1.2
.6
.6
.7
2.2
2.8
2.0
- 4.9
2.3
.2
1.5
2.2
2.6
1.6
1.7
2.8
1.5
- 4 .0
1.7
-.1
1.5
.9
1.1
.7
1.9
2.9
1.7
-4 .1
2.0
.2
1.6
1.1
1.2
.9
1.2
2.5
.9
- 3.7
1.0
-.7
1.1
.5
.8
.1
.3
-.1
1.3
.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
.8
.5
1.8
.8
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.5
.6
3.8
2.0
2.7
2.4
2.8
1.5
1.7
1.5
.7
2.1
2.0
2.1
1.0
.8
1.7
1.0
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.0
2.3
1.2
2.2
2.0
2.3
.2
.1
.2
.5
.6
.7
.6
2.6
3.1
2.8
3.2
3.5
2.8
oo
cvi
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
G o v e rn m en t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total p riv a te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n a g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g
..................
D u ra b le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n d u ra b le
.................
T ran sportation, co m m un ica
tion. and public u tilitie s ....
T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C o m m u n ic a tio n
...........
Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . .
.
T ra d e ...............................
W h o le s a le. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and
real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
O ther services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1959-68
2.8
2.6
3.1
2.9
2.1
1.9
3.1
1 See table 10, c h . 1, for a derivation of these civilian em ploym ent NOTE: Em ploym ent covers se lf-e m p lo y e d , unpaid fam ily workers, and
levels which include a Bureau of Labor Statistics governm ent em ploym ent wage and salary workers. The em ploym ent is a count of jobs rather than
persons holding a job. Thus, persons holding more than one job would be
concept.
counted more than once.
2 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCE:
output share has, because of the high pro
ductivity growth in this sector.
Mining employment is projected to re
verse its historical decline in 1972-80, re
flecting a resurgence of demand within the
coal mining industry and a slowing of pro
ductivity growth in several of the mining in
dustries. Construction employment growth
is projected to accelerate in 1968-80 in ab
solute terms although still showing a rela
tive decline. The growth in construction em
ployment results from the projected growth
in demand for residential and nonresidential
construction. Employment in the transporta
tion sector is projected to increase as in
dustries such as trucking and air transpor
tation become increasingly important and
the intracity transportation systems such
as railways reverse their historical decline
in employment and output.
employment. The retail trade employment
share has risen steadily in the past from
15.4 percent in 1955 to 16.6 percent of
total employment in 1972 but this share is
projected to decline to 16.0 percent by
1985. This reversal reflects the declining
percentage of final demand expenditures
on goods between 1980 and 1985. The
employment share of other services has
steadily risen from 15.9 percent in 1955 to
20.0 percent in 1972 and is projected to
account for 22.2 percent of civilian employ
ment by 1985. This follows as expenditures
by consumers on services continue to grow
both absolutely and relatively and as pro
ductivity growth in this sector lags behind
the private nonagricultural averages. The
other services sector employment growth is
projected to accelerate relative to its 195568 trend, reflecting both projected growth
of final demand for consumer services and
intermediate demands for such activities as
business consulting, temporary help, and
services to building. Communication’s em
ployment share has not increased as its
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Industry employment projections. Moving
from a consideration of major sectors to an
analysis of industries in greater detail, the
projected average annual rates of change
94
Chart 7
Total Employment by Major Sector, Selected Years 1955-72 and Projected
for 1980 and 1985
Percent d istribution
Other services
J
a p t ® pg
,y£*\.£{»•&';
p s -
#&m. • - j
km ® \; :
mw
\;W
$§
Finance, insurance,
and real estate
mm
5
|§§|f!
HHl
0 . #gg;s
t
| f*s 5;-y -.^ :.
|ff|
3§p l
fig
Percent
Sfe'W ;
!&$£&K§Sr'
Transportation,
com m unication,
and public u tilitie s
-
.- v ~
WSS
t^tg® '}}'r y ir
Pt&.
s&S
S 'Sk
IE* r!^4?3
yK;>*
‘
riVr.V>,< r!' .•J "ll
— 90
j;.--;;;v
?:.v
^t§#
X *\VA
a-.’W
'‘■.iWBvSs
•
'
M r
W& :
S fk
— 80
J8 J ..,.....sr
— 70
V '
--.V
1118 c-^Tv^v
:,lir.TV-,
' -'
Vy”
AV
’■
100
|||^5
:3 2&
wr *
iSSiSi-Viii
HH
iVSte a iy
>p ivS i'
Trade
*-iWr&
&? r
8 itV 4
S
il
M $0
&
$M $
W
tar in 8
(S^.r>
? ? t;
1
a&
y
7^ ^ ;: f § § ►feifc
T;. 1
7
ivS'-.v::
■
“
— 60
£
■&
'£&
— 50
-;;;
y.‘
v ./V
'^ V
•Viv^Vrryi
Manufacturing
V -'m
~
••V.rC*;.* :*•>.*•
— 40,
r
i
:=VJ
?.;'-::,'7
5
C- V w .V
!* < j
— 30
:v i!y>
vr.^ v
C onstruction
M ining
—
20
—
10
A griculture
•/«>.;
Government
S^
Ji
s
y
US!
$ rfcv
,^s 5i *-v T.-Z.V
1955 1958 1959 1963 1965 1968 1970 1971 1972 1980 1985
95
_
0
period, employment changes range from a
0.4-million decline in agricultural jobs to a
2.1-million increase in State and local gen
Average annual
eral government. The selected industries
rates of change1
Industry
shown in table 53, although few in number,
1959-68 1 9 68 -80
account for well over 80 percent of the
projected change in jobs in 1968-85.
8.7
6.7
.
71 Com puters and peripheral e q u ip m e .n. .t . . . . . . . . . . . .
6.1
112 Miscellaneous business s e rvic .es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2
..
The reasons associated with high em
10.2
5.6
87 Miscellaneous trans portatio n e q u ip m e n t
...........
ployment growth rates can vary from a very
5.5
5.5
11 8 Health services except h o s p ita .ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
high output growth to a low productivity
5.1
119 H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 .2
.
5.1
44 Plastic products. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9.6
growth or a rapidly declining average work
4.6
2.5
85 Ship and boat building and rep.a. ir . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
week or a combination of these factors. Of
4.4
89 M edical and dental in s tru m e n ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6
the industries noted above, miscellaneous
4 .0
114 M iscellaneous professional se rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2
4.0
106 F in a n c.e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3
transportation equipment, computers and
4 .0
107 In s u ra n c e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 .0
.
peripheral equipment, and plastic products
seem clearly associated with a very high
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
rate of growth in projected output. The
NOTES: Em ploym ent is on a job concept and covers wage and salary
workers, self-em ployed, and unpaid fam ily workers. Industry num bers refer to computer industry’s output is projected to
sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2.
grow 11 percent a yc^r in 1968-80 and its
productivity over 4 percent a year. Other
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
industries such as miscellaneous business
services, hospitals, and health services ex
in employment for 1968-80 vary from a de
cept hospitals each have moderately high
cline of 4.5 percent annually for other ord
rates of growth in output coupled with slow
nance (industry 19) to a growth of almost
growth rates in output per man-hour. The
7.0 percent a year for computers (industry
output of miscellaneous business services
71). Other rapidly growing industries in
is projected to grow 7.2 percent a year but
1968-80 (table 51) are miscellaneous trans
its productivity is projected to grow less
portation equipment; miscellaneous busi
than 2 percent a year. The industries of the
ness services; health services except hospi
other services sector, such as miscellaneous
tals; hospitals; plastic products; ship and
business services, are projected to have
boat building; and medical and dental instru
their average workweek decline 0.4 percent
ments. For the projected period 1980-85the
rates of change in employment by industry
Table 52. Industries projected to grow most rapidly in employment,
vary from a 4 percent annual decline in
1980-85
railroad transportation to an annual in
crease of almost 4 percent in miscellaneous
Average annual
business services (table 52).6
9
rates of c h a n g e 1
Industry
From a different perspective — the actual
1968-80 19 80 -85
change in number of jobs — employment
change between 1968 and 1980 ranges from
112 Miscellaneous business s e rv ic .e. s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
6.1
3.8
18 Guided missiles and space vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 1 . 8
...
3.8
a 1.5 million job loss in agriculture to a 4.8
78 Radio and television se ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5
2.9
million increase in State and local general
119 H ospitals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 .2
2.9
government. The more rapidly expanding in
89 Medical and dental in s tru m e n .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4
. .
2.8
106 F in a n ce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.0
.
2.6
dustries, in addition to State and local
118 Health services except h o s p ita .ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
5.5
2.6
government, are retail trade; miscellaneous
114 M iscellaneous professional s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0
2.4
business services; hospitals; health services
91 Photographic eq uipm ent and s u p p lie.s. . . . . . . . . . . .
..
3.1
2.3
7 Other nonferrous m etal ore m in in. g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
1.4
2.3
except hospitals; and wholesale trade, each
adding more than 1 million jobs between
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
1968 and 1980 (table 53). Overthe 1980-85
Table 51.
Industries projected to grow most rapidly in employment,
1968-80
NOTES: Em ploym ent is on a job concept and covers wage and salary
workers, self-em ployed, and unpaid fam ily workers. Industry num bers refer to
sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2.
69
The employment levels and rates of growth for all
industries are shown in appendix C.
SOURCE:
96
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Table 53. Industries projected to show largest increases in number of jobs, 1968-80 and 1980-85
19 68 -80
Industry
19 80 -85
Additional
jobs
(thousands) 1
Industry
Additional
jobs
(th o u s a n d s )1
Total, 10 in d u s trie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 ,02 4
Total, 10 in d u s trie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 302
4,771
State and local governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
105 Retail tra d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,9 8 8
1,512
112 Miscellaneous business s e rvic .es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
119 H ospitals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,386
.
1,264
118 Health services except h o s p ita .ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
104 W holesale tr a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,052
106 F in a n ce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 924
12-17 C o n s tru c tio.n. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
870
649
114 Miscellaneous professional s e rv ic.e .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
608
..
121 N onprofit organizations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tate and local g overnm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
2,120
112 Miscellaneous business s e rvic .es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
628
105 Retail tra d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509
119 H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
460
. .
118 Health services except h o s p ita .ls. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
367
106 F in a n ce. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
338
12-17 C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276
114 Miscellaneous professional s e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
121 N onprofit organizations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
205
104 W holesale tr a d.e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
177
Total econom y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 ,6 5 0
.
82 .4
10 industries as percent of additional jobs in total econom y..
.
Total ec onom y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10 industries as percent of ad ditional jobs in to ta l econom y..
Based on to ta l em ploym ent, BLS concept.
NOTE:
table A -2.
SOURCE:
6 033
87 .9
Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix
a year. Therefore, their employment is pro
jected to grow an additional 0.4 percentage
points a year because of this projected
change in hours.
Because of the projected slowdown in
industry output growth in 1968-80 relative
to the 1959-68 trend, several industries
will not expand employment as rapidly in
1968-80 relative to 1959-68. The defenserelated industries, guided missiles, other
ordnance, and aircraft, are projected to have
1980 employment levels that are lower than
in 1968 but higher than in 1972. The indus
tries growing fastest in output, such as
plastic products, photographic equipment,
air transportation, computers, and synthetic
fibers are projected to expand employment
between 1968 and 1980 at annual rates ex
ceeding 2.5 percent, but these rates are
considerably below their respective 1959-68
trends. The mining industries are all pro
jected to either slow their historical decline
(coal mining and crude petroleum) or show
a small employment growth (other nonferous metal ore mining). In the copper ore
mining and primary copper industries, the
growth rates are distorted when 1968 is
used as a base since in 1967-68 there was
a copper strike. Only one industry, heating
and plumbing fixtures, is projected to ac
celerate its employment growth in 1968-80
relative to 1959-68. This reflects the in
crease in this industry’s output resulting
from the projected growth in construction
activities.
Because of the 1980-85 projected slow
down in output expansion relative to 196880, 15 manufacturing industries are pro
jected to show no growth in employment in
1980-85. A few of these are telephone and
telegraph apparatus, iron and steel foun
dries, miscellaneous fabricated textile prod
ucts, and agricultural chemicals. On the
other hand, the uranium-related industries
(other nonferrous metal mining and miscel
laneous nonferrous metal products) are pro
jected to have faster employment expansion
in 1980-85 than in 1968-80 because of their
output increase resulting from demands
made on these sectors from nuclear electric
power generation. Several industries are
projected to show small employment de
clines in 1980-85 after having had a positive
growth in 1968-80. These industries are
copper rolling and drawing, other furniture
(industry 30), special industry machinery,
and motor vehicles. The employment de
cline in the motor vehicle industry reflects
the impact of an output growth slowdown
between 1980 and 1985 because of a num
ber of factors such as urban congestion,
along with slower growth in incomes.
97
Chapter 6. Impact of A lternative Assumptions on Projected
Growth of Real GNP
In chapter 1 discussions of the potential
1980 and 1985 gross national products were
presented. This chapter discusses alterna
tive rates of growth in real GNP which re
sult from changing some of the basic
assumptions.
For each of the major variables used in
projecting potential GNP there are uncer
tainties concerning their possible course in
the future. It is extremely difficult to pin
point the degree of uncertainty surrounding
each of these variables, but it is possible to
describe or calculate their possible impact
on the longrun growth rate of the econo
my.7 That is the purpose of this chapter.
0
Since for each variable, or factor, several
alternative assumptions are reasonable, the
number of combinations can quickly expand
to unmanageable magnitudes. For that rea
son, the alternatives selected are meant to
define the outer bounds of a reasonable
range, rather than to explore all possible
alternatives. Also, it is important to note
that by discussing each of these factors
separately, the interaction between the fac
tors is not being considered. As an example,
in exploring a faster or slower rate of de
cline in average annual hours, the impact
this might have on the future rate of pro
ductivity changes is not considered.
the Bureau of the Census.7 The Bureau
1
also has developed alternative population
projections (series D and F) which for 1985
differ from series E only in the number of
persons under the age of 16, that is, those
not yet born. The variance between series
D and F and the basic series E projection
results from the alternative fertility rate
assumptions for women in the childbearing
age group. The total fertility rate (i.e., ac
cumulated births over all childbearing years
per woman) declined from 3.5 in 1955 to
2.9 in 1965 and further declined to 2.3 in
1971 and 2.0 in 1972. Population series E
used in the basic projections assumes a
fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. The
fertility rates used by the Bureau of Census
in population projection series D and F are
2.45 and 1.78 children per woman, respec
tively.
Although the age and sex distributions
of the working age population for 1980 and
1985 are reasonably fixed, the projected
labor force varies with the choice of the
population series because the labor force
participation rate of women is a function of,
among other factors, the presence of chil
dren, particularly children under 5 years of
age. Specifically, women with young children
traditionally have had lower participation
rates. By separating women of childbearing
age into two groups, those with children
and those without, the impact of variations
in the fertility rate is introduced. The num
ber of women, ages 16-44, is unchanged
but the mix evolves toward those without
children as the lower fertility rate assump
tion is introduced. As a result, when series
F population projections are used a larger
labor force is projected and when series D
A lternative GNP growth rates
Population and fertility rates. The projec
tions of total population in 1980 and 1985
used in deriving the labor force and poten
tial GNP discussed in chapter 1 are those
in the series E population projections of
70For a discussion of the impact of alternative
assumptions on projected GNP levels and composition,
see Challenges for Business in the 1 9 7 0 ’s by the editors
of Fortune (Boston: Little, Brown and Co., 1972).
71 Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 493
(Bureau of the Census, December 1972).
98
rates and their impact on labor force and
potential GNP, it was assumed that the
labor force participation rates for 1980 and
1985 were fixed by age and sex categories.
Thus, the earlier alternative labor force pro
jections resulted simply from aggregation of
subgroups, under alternative fertility pro
jections (and therefore, labor force partici
pation rates) for women of childbearing
age.7
2
The participation rates in the basic pro
jections are largely extensions of long-term
factors modified by recent developments,
institutional, social, and economic. Some of
these influences are declining fertility rates,
increasing use of child care centers, exten
sion of retirement rules for disability and
age, the demand for part-time workers by
services and trade industries, and fluctua
ting unemployment rates, to name a few.
Individuals react to these influences by
changing their work status between full and
part time and by entering, reentering, or
leaving the labor market. For example,
approximately 25 percent of the women
ages 25-36 who entered the nonfarm labor
force between 1965 and 1971 sought volumtarily part-time jobs. The participation rates
for 1980 and 1985 for this group are re
spectively 50.4 and 51.1 percent. If the
growth in participation of this particular
group continues at its recent level rather
than at one-half of its long-term rate, the
labor force for 1980 and 1985 would be
considerably larger.
Two alternative sets of participation rate
assumptions have been developed by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics.7
3
In the first
alternative, participation rates in each age-
is used a smaller labor force is projected.
The labor force in the basic model (with
series E fertility rates) expands at a rate of
1.79 percent annually in 1968-80 andl.13
percent in 1980-85. With the other assump
tions of the basic model, total GNP is pro
jected to expand at a rate of 4.09 percent
annually in 1968-80 and 3.25 percent a year
in 1980-85. With the higher fertility rate
assumptions (and the resulting lower female
participation) of series D, the labor force
would expand at a slightly lower rate of
1.74 percent annually in 1968-80 and, all
else unchanged, total potential GNP would
expand 4.02 percent annually. (See tables
54 and 55.) For 1980-85 the rate of ex
pansion of GNP would be moderated only
slightly, from 3.25 percent with series E to
3.24 percent with series D. The use of
series D population projections to derive the
labor force rather than series E would be
consistent with the belief that the recent
decline in the fertility rate was a temporary
phenomenon and that the rate will revert
to levels more consistent with the postwar
trend.
The impact of series F population assump
tions is to raise the labor force growth very
moderately and, as a result, raise the poten
tial GNP growth. For 1968-80 the increase
in labor force growth would be from 1.79 to
1.82 percent annually, resulting in a change
in potential GNP growth from 4.09 to 4.12
percent a year. For 1980-85 the rise would
be from 3.25 to 3.29 percent. The choice of
series F over series E would reflect the
belief that the 1965-72 decline in the fer
tility rates will continue into the future.
Of course, it should be pointed out that
in the case of both series D and series F
the near-term impact is the opposite of what
the longer term impact would be. For exam
ple, with series F and its lower birth rate
assumptions, the near-term impact is to in
crease the labor force because more women
of childbearing age are drawn into the labor
force. However, the longer term effect, say
after 1990, would be to lower the labor
force, and all else being equal, the potential
GNP.
72In developing the basic set of labor force projec
tions, the participation rate for all age-sex groups for the
year 1990 is estimated first. The methods used in devel
oping labor force projections are discussed by Denis F.
Johnston in "T h e U. S. Labor Force: Projections to
1 9 90 ,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1973, pp. 3-13. The
1990 participation rates of those groups with rapidly
increasing trends are estimated by assuming a continua
tion of these trends but at one-half their average annual
rate. By fitting a curve to the observed trends and the
1990 end-point, the rates fos the intervening years 1980
and 1985 were obtained by graphic interpolation.
73See Denis F. Johnston, "Population and Labor
Force: Projections to 1980 and 1 9 8 5 ,” Monthly Labor
Review, December 1973.
Labor force participation rates. In the pre
ceding discussion of alternative fertility
99
Table 54. Combined effects of population growth and participation rates on labor force projections
Labor force levels (thousands)
Labor force growth rates 1
Assumption
1968
Basic population (series E):
Basic participation .................................................................
Low participation ....................................................................
High participation ....................................................................
Low population (series D):
Basic participation ................................................................
Low participation.......................................................................
High participation.......................................................................
High population (series F):
Basic participation .................................................................
Low participation.......................................................................
High participation........................................................................
1980
1985
1968-85
1968-80
1980-85
82,272
101,809
100,408
101,892
107,7 16
1 0 ' 9l l
108,224
1.60
1.49
1.63
1.79
1.66
1.80
1.13
1.05
1.21
82,272
101,138
99,805
101,221
106,932
105,119
107,413
1.55
1.45
1.58
1.74
1.62
1.74
1.12
1.04
1.20
82,272
102,166
100,730
102,249
108,247
106,280
108,471
1.63
1.52
1.65
1.82
1.70
1.83
1.16
1.08
1.24
1 Average annual rates of change computed as compound interest
rates between terminal years.
Table 55.
S O U R C E: Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Projections under alternative assumptions: isolated effects
GNP growth rates 1
Growth rates1
Levels
Assumption
1968
1980
1985
1968-85
1968-80
1980-85
1968-85
1968-80
1980-85
82,272
101,809
101,138
102,166
1 07,7 16
106,932
108,247
1.60
1.55
1.63
1.79
1.74
1.82
1.13
1.12
1.16
3.84
3.79
3.88
4.09
4.02
4.12
3.25
3.24
3.29
82,272
101,809
100,408
101,892
1 07,7 16
105,811
108,224
1.60
1.49
1.63
1.79
1.66
1.80
1.13
1.05
1.21
3.84
3.72
3.88
4.09
3.95
4.10
3.25
3.16
3.35
Employment (thousands of persons) Effects of unemployment rates:
Basic assumption (4 percent)........................................................................
Low growth (5 percent)........................................................................................
High growth (3 percent).......................................................................................
79,455
97,8 17
96,819
98,815
103,487
102,430
104,545
1.57
1.51
1.63
1.75
1.66
1.83
1.13
1.13
1.13
3.84
3.77
3.91
4.09
3.99
4.19
3.25
3.26
3.26
Public employment (thousands of persons) —
Effects of State and local employment:
Basic assumption......................................................................................................
Low growth......................................................................................................................
High growth.....................................................................................................................
14,453
17,470
18,370
16,570
19,600
20,600
18,600
1.81
2.11
1.49
1.59
2.02.
1.15
2.33
2.32
2.34
3.84
3.80
3.89
4.09
4.04
4.14
3.25
3.24
3.27
Annual private nonfarm man-hours (millions) —
Effects of rates of decline in average annual hours:
Basic assumption (- 0.3 percent).................................................................
Low growth (-0.4 percent)................................................................................
High growth (-0.2 percent)................................................................................
132,040
161,2 77
159,254
163,132
166,851
164,015
169,775
1.39
1.28
1.49
1.68
1.57
1.78
.68
.59
.80
3.84
3.75
3.94
4.09
3.99
4.18
3.25
3.17
3.37
5.02
6.91
6.68
7.16
7.89
7.52
8.30
2.70
2.41
3.0
2.7
2.4
3.0
2.69
2.4
3.0
3.84
3.58
4.13
4.09
3.82
4.37
3.25
2.99
3.55
S OURCE:
Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Labor force (thousands of persons) —
Effects of population series:
Basic assumption (series E ) .............................................................................
Low growth (series D ) ...........................................................................................
High growth (series F ) ...........................................................................................
Effects of participation rates:
Basic assumption......................................................................................................
Low growth (1969-71 levels)...........................................................................
High growth (1955-72 trends)........................................................................
Private nonfarm G N P per man-hour (1963 dollars) —
Effects of rates of growth:
Basic assumption (2.7 percent)....................................................................
Low growth (2.4 percent)...................................................................................
High growth (3.0 percent)..................................................................................
1 Average annual rates of change computed as compound interest
rates between terminal years.
100
sex category are assumed to remain con
stant at their 1969-71 levels. The second
alternative is based on linear least squares
extrapolation of the observed participation
rates for each age-sex group during the 1955
to 1972 period. When combined with series E
population projections and the other basic
assumptions of the model, the first alterna
tive results in lower labor force and GNP
growth rates, while the second results in
increased labor force and GNP growth rates.
The effects are shown in table 55.
The first participation rate alternative
results in a 1985 total labor force projection
of 105.8 million persons, 1.9 million below
the basic projection of 107.7 million. As a
result, the 1968 to 1980 growth rate in the
labor force falls from the basic 1.79 percent
a year growth to 1.66 percent. The growth
rate of GNP falls from 4.09 percent a year
to 3.95 percent over the same period. With
all other assumptions kept the same as in
the basic projections, the effect on total
labor force of the first alternative participa
tion rate is greater than the series D as
sumption and, in addition, has a different
pattern. Whereas the series D assumption
has little effect on the 1980 to 1985 growth
rate of GNP, the low participation assump
tion reduces it from the basic projection rate
of 3.25 percent to 3.16 percent.
The second, higher, participation rate
alternative can be seen to have an effect
nearly identical to the series F population
assumption for the 1968 to 1985 period.
However, the pattern of its effect is con
siderably different, having a relatively
greater impact during the 1980-85 period.
During the 1968-80 period it results in an
increase in the GNP growth rate of only
one-hundredth of 1 percent to 4.10, but from
1980 to 1985 it increases the growth rate
by one-tenth of 1 percent to 3.35.
Various combinations of population and
participation rates have been examined for
their combined effects on the level of labor
force projections. Table 54 shows the results.
The 1985 labor force estimates range from
105.1 to 108.5 million, or from 2.4 percent
below the basic projection to 0.7 percent
above it.
Unemployment rates. The basic model uses
a 4-percent unemployment rate for the years
1980 to 1985. The attainment of this ratio
by the middle to late 1970’s may pose a
great challenge for the economy because
of the rapid labor force growth and its dis
tribution and the high unemployment rates
of the early 1970’s. Some have argued, for
example, that a higher unemployment rate
is justified as a full-employment standard
because no economy can entirely absorb the
large influx of secondary workers, young
adults 16-24, and women 25-54, which oc
curred during the late 1960’s. The assumed
growth of jobs needed to absorb the current
unemployed and new labor force entrants
in a 2- or 5-year span is unprecedented by
historical standards. Therefore, an alterna
tive possibility is that the U.S. economy will
not achieve a 4-percent unemployment rate
but will only reach a 5 percent unemploy
ment rate. If this assumption is used, the
impact is to lower the 1968-80 growth in
real GNP from 4.09 to 3.99 percent per
year. However, it does not appreciably af
fect the 1980-85 projected growth in real
GNP since the impact of a 5 percent unem
ployment rate is felt only until 1980. (See
table 55.)7
4
Alternatively, it would be argued that by
1980 the rate of unemployment might be
lowered to 3 percent through a combination
of manpower policies and demand manage
ment. Using 3 percent as the standard for
full employment would raise the 1968-80
growth in real GNP from the 4.09 percent
rate in the basic projections to4.19 percent.
Again, the effect of this alternative unem
ployment rate assumption will be nominal
for the 1980-85 projection.
Public-private employment mix. Given a
projected level of employment, average an
nual hours, and productivity, the level of
potential GNP can still be affected by dif
ferences in the share of total employment
in the public sector. This results from the
use of the zero productivity growth assump
tion for government employment. For exam
ple, the growth rate of government output
(in real terms) is equal to the growth rate
74 The calculations of the impact of changing unem
ployment rates on economic growth do not result from
any dynamic analysis of the interaction of these factors.
101
decline is attributable, at least in part, to
an increased number of dual or multiple
jobholders in the economy and the willing
ness of about 25 percent of the women,
ages 25-34, entering the labor force to work
part time. To the extent that workers are
willing, competent part-time workers are
desired by industries to fill gaps, for these
workers receive lower fringe benefits.
Should these recent sharper declines in
hours persist through the middle 1970’s,
the basic assumption of a 0.3 percent annual
rate of decline might be too moderate. Thus,
a 0.4 percent a year decline in man-hours
might be a possibility. With the sharper
decline, the GNP growth rate is lowered. The
effect is slightly stronger in the 1968-80
period, reducing the GNP growth rate from
4.09 to 3.99 percent, or by .10 percent,
while the 1980-85 growth rate is lowered
by .08 percent, from 3.25 to 3..17 percent.
If the decline in average hours is as
sumed to be a result of a combination of
cyclical factors and the availability of work
ers willing to work part time, neither of
which may continue into the future, a lower
rate of decline could prevail. If a 0.2 per
cent a year decline in hours is used, the
effect is slightly stronger in the 1980-85
period where GNP growth is increased by
. 12 percent, as compared to the .09 percent
increase for 1968-80.
Average annual hours. The basic projections
in 1980 and 1985 assume that the recent
Considerable attention has been given
recently to the possibility of changes in the
sharp decline in hours will moderate and
standard workweek from the 40-hour, 5-day
that the rate of decrease will return to the
long-term rate. The economy has witnessed
practice which was established by the Fair
an increasing utilization of part-time work
Labor Standards Act of 1938. Three types
ers to complement the longer shopping hours
of changes have been discussed and ex
or odd-hour services increasingly provided
perimented with in a few instances. First, is
by businesses. This phenomenon of declin
the 40-hour, 4-day workweek which repre
ing average hours7 was particularly
6
sents a compression of the workweek rather
pronounced between 1965 and 1971 when
than a shortening of the hours worked.
the rate of decline reached 0.7 percent
Second is the possibility of a 4-day work
annually, compared to the long-term decline
week with less than 40 hours. Finally, there
in hours of 0.3 percent annually. The recent
is a proposal for a more flexible scheduling
of work which gives employees a greater
choice of when they work during the week.
This last proposal, often referred to as
7
5 It should be pointed out that the effects of changes
in public employment would vary slightly depending on
"flexi-time,” has attracted considerable in
the category of public employment in which the changes
terest in European countries.
occurred.
It would be beyond the scope of this
76As discussed in ch. 1, the concept of average
report to discuss all of the possible ramifica
hours used in these projections is hours paid, not hours
worked.
tions of these various changes even if they
in its employment, after allowance is made
for shifts among the various categories of
government employment. Private output
growth, however, is equal to the employ
ment growth rate plus the productivity
growth rate less the rate of decline of aver
age hours. Table 55 shows the results of
changes in the public share of employment
by assuming two alternative levels of State
and local government employment.7
5
The low alternative assumes a level of
State and local employment 900,000 above
the basic 1980 projections and 1 million
above the basic 1985 level, or an increase
of nearly 1 percent in the public sector
share of total employment. The result is to
lower GNP growth over the 1968-80 period
from 4.09 percent to 4.04 percent. The high
alternative consists of a decrease in public
employment of 1 percent. In this case, the
result is an increase in the GNP growth
rate from 1968 to 1980 of .05 percent, up
to 4.14 percent a year. Because the rate of
growth in public employment in 1980-85 is
affected only marginally by these alterna
tive public-private employment mixes, the
GNP growth rate in this period does not
change appreciably as a result of the as
sumed change in the public-private em
ployment mix.
102
growth of nonfarm productivity. A third ar
gument regarding productivity is that there
has been no long-term slowdown of produc
tivity, just short-term cyclical influences. If
this last explanation is valid, the economy
should be able to catch up to its long-term
rate of growth.7
9
This is what has been
assumed in the basic projections.
If the hypothesis that the recent slow
down in productivity growth resulted from
permanent strqctural shifts were accepted,
the economy would need some major laborsaving innovations, particularly in the ser
vice-producing sector, to boost this labor
productivity rate. Also, the need for pollu
tion controls, safety equipment, and energy
availability may affect productivity growth.
If these factors do dominate, a lower rate of
productivity growth would be implied. If,
for example, a rate of private nonfarm
productivity of 2.4 percent, instead of the
basic 2.7 percent, were to prevail, the GNP
growth would drop to 3.58 percent a year
in 1968-85, from the 3.84 percent rate in
the basic projections (table 55 ). The rates
of growth in potential GNP for 1968-80 and
1980-85 would each drop by about the same
percent.
Alternatively, some have argued that the
goods-producing sector is on the threshold
of a productivity boom because the capital
investments of the 1960’ s are now being
used by industries. A higher output per
man-hour growth in the goods sector would
more than offset the low productivity growth
in services and related industries. Therefore,
the rate of productivity growth in 1968-85
could, under this assumption, range up to
3.0 percent annually for the private nonfarm
economy. If the 3.0 percent productivity
growth is used rather than 2.7, this would
raise the 1968-85 GNP growth from 3.84 to
4.13 percent a year. Again, the 1968-80
and 1980-85 GNP growth rates are affected
to the same degree.
Of the factors discussed which can affect
the GNP growth rate, productivity has the
greatest impact — at least using the alterna
tives outlined in this chapter. Alternative
population projections and changes in the
public-private employment mix have the
were known. 7
7 In the United States most
attempts at a 4-day week have been initia
ted by management for purposes of sched
uling and efficiency. Very little is known
about labor’s reaction, although it seems
that unions would prefer to have the 40hour standard relaxed if a 4-day week were
instituted. The effects on such factors as
part-time work, working mothers, labor fa
tigue, family life, and moonlighting are un
certain and make it difficult to predict the
possible effects on average weekly hours.
It nevertheless seems reasonable to expect
that a reduction in standard working hours
per week would accelerate the decline in
average hours somewhat. Thus, if a less
than 40-hour workweek were to become
widespread by 1980 or 1985, potential GNP
would tend to grow more slowly. However,
widespread acceptance of the compressed
workweek might be less likely to affect
average hours and GNP growth although its
impact on productivity is still an unknown
quantity. 7
8
Output per man-hour. The nonfarm rate of
increase in output per man-hour has aver
aged 2.7 percent annually during the post
war period, but this growth has fluctuated,
particularly with the stages of the business
cycle. For example, productivity grew 2.4
percent annually in 1965-72 but showed
virtually no growth for the years 1968-70
and increased 4.1 percent a year from 1970
to 1972. There are three general explana
tions commonly given for the low growth in
productivity in 1965-72. Some economists
cite the growing importance of service-pro
ducing industries with their relatively low
productivity growth rates. Others argue
that the growing importance of secondary
workers, whose productivity is lower than
that of primary workers, at least as meas
ured by wages, has resulted in a lower
77For discussions relating to changes in the standard
workweek, see Janice N. Hedges, "N ew Pattern for
Working Time,” Monthly Labor Review, February 1973,
pp. 3-8; and Janice H. Hedges " A Look at the 4-day
Workweek,” Monthly Labor Review, October 1971, pp.
33-37.
7 8 John J. Macut, "Measuring Productivity Under a
4-day W eek,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1974, pp.
55-56.
79See Johnston,
l
103
"Projections to 1980 and 19 85 .”
been constructed. Their effects on potential
GNP and its growth rates are shown in
table 56 and are discussed below. It should
be emphasized that by combining these
factors the dynamic elements in the econo
my are still not being captured since the
impact that a higher unemployment rate
may have on a decline in hours is not being
measured directly. Therefore, this combina
tion only takes two or more factors and in
a static sense combines them.
least impact. The first part of this chapter
contained a discussion of the impact on the
GNP growth rate of changing one major
factor at a time. The succeeding section
combines some of these factors to discern
the impact on GNP growth, but still does
not reflect the dynamic interaction in these
factors.
A lternative combinations of factors
The previous section discussed the effects
of alternative assumptions about future pop
ulation and labor force participation rates,
unemployment, average hours, productiv
ity, and the public-private employment mix,
each under the assumption that the other
factors affecting potential GNP remain un
changed. Comparison of the impact of each
lactor on GNP growth can be done only in
a superficial sense inasmuch as there is no
common ground upon which to base such a
comparison. For example, the effects of a
decline of 1 percentage point in the unem
ployment rate and an increase in the rate
of decline in average hours of 0.1 percent
cannot be compared with a common index
of sensitivity. Such an index would require
probabilistic information regarding the ex
pected values and variances of the projec
tions, and these are not available.
The purpose of this section is to analyze
some selected combinations of assumptions
for the various factors which were discussed
individually in the last section. There are
many combinations of the various high or
low individual assumptions which could be
analyzed. Rather than attempting to show all
of the combinations, several cases have
Basic projections (case A). Case A is the
basic projection. It is shown for purposes of
comparison with the other cases.
Lowest potential GNP growth (case B).
Case B represents the choice of the lowest
alternative for each factor in determining
potential GNP. Thus, it assumes the follow
ing: Series D population projections, con
tinuation of the 1969-71 labor force partici
pation levels, 5 percent unemployment, de
cline of average hours by 0.4 percent an
nually, a 2.4 percent rate of productivity
growth, and finally, a higher level of govern
ment employment. The 1968-80 GNP growth
rate is affected more strongly than the 198085 rate. The 1968-80 rate of growth de
clines from 4.09 to 3.38 percent or by .71
percentage points, while the 1980-85 rate
falls by .48 percentage points to a 2.77percent annual growth rate. Thus, under
the low set of assumptions, the slowdown
projected for GNP growth after 1980 is not
quite as sharp as for the basic projections.
Overall, these assumptions result in a 196885 GNP growth rate of 3.20 percent a year,
.64 percentage points below the basic rate
Table 56. Projected G NP and growth rates under selected combinations of alternative assumptions
GNP
(b illio n s of 19 63 dollars)
Average annual rates
of change 1
Com bination
1968
Case
Case
Case
Case
Case
Case
A (b a s ic ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
B (a ll lo w .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C (a ll h ig h .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
D ................................................................
E ................................................................
F ................................................................
$
75 9.2
1980
$ 1 ,2 2 8 .2
1,1 3 1 .4
1,310 .6
1 ,2 6 7 .6
1,1 6 9 .5
1,1 6 3 .9
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
1985
$ 1 ,4 4 1 .5
1,2 9 7 .3
1,580 .4
1,5 0 9 .6
1,3 5 7 .8
1,3 8 3 .4
SOURCE:
104
1968-85
19 68 -80
3.84
3.20
4.41
4.1 3
3.48
3.59
4.0 9
3.3 8
4.6 5
4.36
3.67
3.62
Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
19 80 -85
3.25
2.77
3.81
3.56
3.03
3.5 2
of 3.84 percent a year. The projected 1985
GNP falls from $1,441.5 billion (1963 dol
lars) to $1,297.3 billion, a reduction of
$144.2 billion, or about 10 percent.
tivity increase. Along with these conditions,
a slower rate of decline in hours appears
possible because of tighter labor market
conditions and because fewer part-time wom
en workers would be in the labor force than
under series E assumptions. Thus, case D,
in addition to series D population, low par
ticipation assumptions, and the basic gov
ernment employment levels, includes as
sumptions of 3 percent unemployment, 0.2
percent decline in hours, and 3 percent
productivity growth.
The case D projections result in a higher
level of potential GNP compared to the
basic model. In 1985 it reaches $1,509.6
billion (1963 dollars), $68.1 billion or 4.7
percent above the basic level. It increased
the 1968-85 growth rate from 3.84 percent
to 4.13 percent. The 1968-80 growth rate is
4.36 percent and the 1980-85 rate is 3.56.
Highest potential GNP growth (case C).
Case C shows the results of assuming the
high growth alternatives. It assumes: Series
F population, continuation of 1955-72 labor
force participation rate trends, 3-percent
unemployment, a 0.2-percent a year decline
in hours, annual nonfarm productivity
growth of 3 percent, and the lower level of
government employment. The result is a
1985 GNP projection of $1,580.4 billion
(1963 dollars), 9.6 percent above the basic
level. This means an increase of the 196885 growth rate to 4.41 percent a year or
.57 percentage points above the rate in the
basic model of 3.84 percent a year. The
growth rates for 1968-80 and 1980-85 both
increase by the same amount, .56 percent
age points. This also results in a slightly
higher relative growth rate in the 1980-85
period than in the basic model.
Since case B and case C were postulated
as the high and low of projected GNP
growth rates, it is interesting to note the
spread between the case B and case C pro
jections. There is a difference of $283.1
billion (1963 dollars) between these projec
tions for 1985 and a 1.21 percent a year
difference between their 1968-85 growth
rates. It is probable that relationships among the assumptions which have not been
investigated or discussed so far would make
the occurrence of either case B or case C
highly unlikely. The remainder of the cases
are meant to represent perhaps more rea
sonable alternatives for the economy in
terms of factors which may affect the growth
in real GNP.
Lower projections (case E). Case E is the
antithesis of case D. All low assumptions in
the one are high in the other and viceversa. The result is a GNP estimate for
1985 of $1,357.8 billion (1963 dollars),
$83.7 billion below the basic projection.
The 1968-85 growth rate is 3.48 percent
annually. The 1968-80 rate is lowered to
3.67 percent annually while the relative
growth of the 1980-85 period is slightly
higher than in case B.
Alternative time path (case F). To this
point no explicit modifications have been
made to the time path in which the as
sumed variables move, although patterns of
GNP growth have been pointed out. The
patterns of productivity, unemployment,
and hours have assumed that long-term
trends are regained by 1980. In case F an
alternative set of assumptions regarding
these factors is examined. The levels of
government employment, population, and
labor force participation are the same as
those in the basic projections. The other
assumptions can be characterized in gener
al as a more gradual attainment of the
basic trends. For unemployment, it is as
sumed that a 4-percent level cannot be at
tained by 1980. Instead a 5-percent unem
ployment rate persists to 1980 and 4 per
cent is reached thereafter, as the growth of
Higher projections (case D). For case D the
reasoning runs as follows: If series D popu
lation projections are assumed along with
the low participation rate, the resulting
slower labor force growth will create tighter
labor markets, and thus lower unemploy
ment rates, than expected in the basic
projection. Tight labor markets may tend
to encourage more investment in equip
ment, thus, pushing up the rate of produc
105
and unemployment.
This chapter has explored a number of
alternative assumptions regarding the fac
tors affecting real GNP. The alternatives
selected are believed to encompass the
range of reasonable possibilities for the
future rate of economic growth. As a matter
of fact, the extreme ranges may be im
possible because some of the factors used
may be contradictory.
The levels of real GNP calculated in this
chapter are not further traced through to
their impact on industry output and employ
ment because the time and resources nec
essary to do this were not available. How
ever, to further explore alternatives to the
basic set of projections, the impact of alter
native demand structures on employment
by industry is explored in chapter 7.
the labor force slows down. Average annual
hours continue their recent sharp down
trend, declining by 0.4 percent annually
from 1968 to 1980. After 1980, however,
hours decline at the basic rate of 0.3 per
cent. Similarly, the sluggish productivity
growth of the 1965 -72 period persists to
1980. After 1980, the level of nonfarm
productivity grows at its long-term trend of
2.7 percent a year.
The level of GNP in 1985 under case F
assumptions is $1,383.4 billion (1963 dol
lars) with a 1968-85 growth rate of 3.59
percent. As expected, the 1980-85 growth
rate of 3.52 percent is larger relative to the
1968-80 period of 3.62 percent than in
any of the other cases. This arises because
the drop in labor force growth after 1980 is
offset by the changes in hours, productivity,
106
Chapter 7. Impact of A lternative Structures of Demand
G N P on Employment
The 1980 and 1985 demand projections
and the resulting projections of employment
by industry in the preceding chapters are
based on one projection of the rate of
growth of GNP as well as the composition
of GNP. While in chapter 6 the impact of
alternative assumptions on the rate of real
economic growth was presented, these al
ternatives were not explored in terms of the
impact on output and employment by in
dustry. The purpose of this chapter is to
present data useful in exploring alterna
tives to the projected structure of demand
and of discerning the probable effects on
employment patterns. The alternative dis
tribution of demand provides only an illus
tration of the employment changes that
would result from specific shifts in the com
position of demand. Thus, the emphasis in
this discussion is to show how shifts in the
demand structure and the resulting em
ployment requirements can be determined,
rather than to construct complete alterna
tive models with differing structures of de
mand GNP. The procedure for doing this is,
first, to examine the employment required
for various types of demand. Using these
data and making assumptions about shifts
in the composition of demand, the probable
impact on the projected composition of em
ployment by industry can be discerned.
Employment associated with various types of
demand
On the average, producing $1 billion of
GNP in 1980 is projected to require 82,703
jobs. Of course, for any one particular com
ponent of demand GNP, the employment
requirements could fall above or below this
average.
For the purposes of this discussion, each
component of final demand in 1980 and
1985 was set equal to $1 billion (1963 dol
lars). This was done to eliminate variations
in the job requirements due solely to the
relative size of the demand element. It
would be misleading to compare the total
job requirements arising from personal con
sumption expenditures (PCE) to those from
Federal Government demand because PCE
is projected to be 10 times larger than Fed
eral purchases in 1980.
The number and distribution by sector
of jobs required per $1 billion of expendi
tures vary considerably according to the
source of demand. For example, $1 billion
of demand in private fixed investment is
projected to require a total of over 67,000
jobs in 1980 (table 57, with similar data
for 1985 shown in table 58), but State and
local government demand for education will
require nearly 149,000 jobs.8
0 An exami
nation of the job requirements by major
sector shows a large but perhaps not un
expected variation between the employment
patterns of investment and educational de
mand. To illustrate, 85 percent of the em
ployment requirements of State and local
government education are concentrated in
the direct employment of public servants;
private investment, of course, requires
none. In the manufacturing sector in 1980,
investment purchases are projected to gen
erate almost 30,000 jobs per $ 1 billion while
demand by State and local education is
projected to require only slightly more than
9,000 jobs per $1 billion. Also, the compari
son of jobs required per $1 billion in manu
facturing shows a better than 3 to 1 varia-
80 These calculations reflect the direct and the
rect jobs related to each type of demand. Thus, the
associated with investment include not only the
making investment goods such as machinery but
the jobs in the primary metal industries, mining,
embodied in the final investment goods.
1 07,
indi
jobs
jobs
also
etc.,
Table 57. Jobs per $1 billion of final demand components, 198Q
(Based on data in 1963 dollars)
Government demand
Sector
Federal
Total
GNP
S tate and local
Defense
T o t a l2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 ,7 0 3
A g ric u ltu re 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,2 1 5
533
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
C ons truc tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,996
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,66 4
Tran sportation, co m m unication, and public u tilitie s .. 4,3 3 2
2,6 4 6
.
T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,058
628
Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,664
W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,027
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 ,63 7
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ,3 5 5
17,42 0
Other services (including households). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
G overnm ent e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,352
General governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 ,17 2
N ondefense
Education
Health,
w elfare, and
sanitation 1
9 6 ,6 9 0
45 5
455
1,907
2 3 ,9 5 7
3 ,4 2 8
2 ,595
553
28 0
2,997
2 ,074
923
955
8,1 8 5
845
5 3 ,5 0 6
8 6 ,4 7 6
- 76
500
6 ,4 8 2
1 4 ,63 2
3,085
2,179
663
243
4 ,0 3 2
2 ,612
1,421
1,590
16,181
2,5 8 4
3 7 ,4 6 6
1 4 8,9 24
278
396
5,189
9 ,1 3 8
3,455
2,110
509
836
216
1,628
- 1,412
1,121
2,0 3 2
1,197
12 5,9 02
1 2 1 ,2 3 2
1,111
437
4 ,8 7 5
1 3 ,3 3 8
3 ,343
2 ,2 0 6
887
250
3 ,9 5 3
2 ,6 5 2
1,301
1,659
2 0 ,2 6 4
1,371
7 0 ,8 8 0
Other
1 1 1 ,9 8 9
271
632
14,201
11,87 4
3 ,5 6 3
2 ,2 4 3
932
38 8
4 ,2 3 6
2,1 8 4
2,0 5 2
2,5 8 2
10 ,47 9
1,266
6 2 ,8 8 5
Private demand
Personal consum ption expenditures
Durables
T o ta l2 .......................................................
Agriculture 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T ran sportation, com m unication, and public utilities .
T ra n sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Public u tilitie s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
T ra d e ................................................................
W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other services (including h o u s eh o ld .s). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Governm ent e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
General governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondurables
Services
Fixed
investm ent
Gross
exports
72 ,2 8 6
7 8 ,4 3 2
7 1 ,02 4
6 7 ,7 2 6
4 5 ,9 6 9
359
311
312
2 6 ,8 7 0
3,0 7 6
2 ,1 9 9
563
309
3 5 ,34 5
4,741
30,60 4
1,576
3,619
818
5 ,8 0 3
578
460
2 0 ,8 3 4
3,792
2,765
69 6
331
3 9 ,31 0
6,9 6 8
3 2 ,34 2
2,059
4 ,6 7 0
926
568
300
1,480
3,017
4 ,8 6 6
1,752
1,842
1,272
2 ,254
898
1,356
10,67 0
4 5 ,6 8 5
2,184
436
568
14,21 4
2 9 ,9 6 4
3 ,594
2,5 1 5
773
306
11,480
4 ,3 7 8
7 ,103
1,632
5,161
677
3 ,438
995
400
2 1 ,9 7 4
5,2 4 4
4 ,3 1 0
627
307
5 ,4 0 5
3,951
1,454
1,644
6,1 3 3
736
1 State and local governm ent purchases of w elfare cover only ad m in is
NOTE: Negative signs are a result of inpu t-output conventions which
trative expenditures and not the benefit payments them selves.
record governm ent sales to the private sector as negative purchases. A
2 These calculations were made for all 134 sectors and summed to negative entry results when sales by the governm ent exceed its purchases
from the private sector.
the level of detail shown.
3 Includes forestry and fisheries and agricultural services (industry
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
sectors 3 and 4 ).
tion for these two types of demand; if indi
vidual industries are examined, this dif
ference magnifies greatly. One case in point
will illustrate—investment requires 723
jobs per $1 billion in construction, mining,
and oil field machinery while education
shows only 28 jobs required per $1 billion,
or a ratio of almost 26 to 1.
Per $ 1 billion of demand, the job require
ments projected for 1980 in the public sec
tor range from almost 86,500 jobs for non
defense purchases to 149,000 for State and
local education in 1980. The private sector
ranges from about 46,000 jobs for gross
exports to over 78,000 jobs for consumer
purchases of nondurable goods. Thus, the
range of job requirements projected for
1980 for the various types of public demand
10 8
Table 58. Jobs per $1 billion of final demand components, 1985
(Based on data in 1963 dollars)
Government demand
Sector
Federal
Total
GNP
S tate and local
Defense
T o ta l2 .......................................................
A g ric u ltu re 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C ons truc tion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Transportation, com m unication, and public u tilitie s ..
Tran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Government e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
General governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
74 .6 5 0
1,623
438
3,596
16 ,30 2
3,724
2,266
910
548
15,526
3,554
11,972
4 ,1 1 5
16,284
1,179
11 ,86 3
Nondefense
Education
Health,
w elfare, and
sanitation 1
8 9 ,6 0 0
336
373
1,976
2 1 ,5 1 9
2 ,9 9 3
2,261
479
253
2 ,669
1,891
778
943
9 ,220
799
4 8 ,7 7 2
8 0 ,0 9 0
-8 9
426
5,842
13,76 7
2,841
1,996
578
267
3,701
2,546
1,155
1,544
16,582
2,4 0 9
33,06 7
147,741
203
313
4 ,9 5 0
7,849
2,9 0 3
1,813
410
680
121
1,383
-1 ,2 6 2
1,015
1,960
990
12 7,4 37
1 1 2 ,9 5 5
870
360
3,890
1 1 ,6 6 8
2 ,9 3 8
1,979
741
218
3,611
2,594
1,017
1,691
19,185
1,293
6 7 ,4 4 9
Other
10 3,3 77
211
528
13,40 3
11 ,01 6
3,151
2,001
800
35 0
3,662
2,005
1,657
2,4 8 5
10,20 3
1,191
5 7 ,52 7
Private demand
Personal consum ption expenditures
Durables
T o ta l2 .......................................................
A g ric u ltu re 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C ons truc tion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tran sportation, co m m unication, and public u tilitie s ..
T ran sp o rtatio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
C o m m u n ic a tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T r a d e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
W h o le s a le . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R e ta il. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Governm ent e n te rp ris e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
General g overnm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondurables
Services
64 ,2 7 5
255
257
237
2 3 ,55 7
2 ,628
1,858
482
288
31 ,70 5
4,1 9 8
2 7 ,50 7
1,476
3,4 4 7
713
6 8 ,8 9 8
4,351
46 6
346
17,985
3,270
2,3 7 9
598
293
3 5 ,2 9 3
6 ,1 9 6
2 9 ,0 9 7
1,923
4 ,4 6 2
802
6 2 ,2 6 6
384
245
1,161
2 ,5 5 8
4 ,0 5 3
1,439
1,552
1,062
1,798
765
1,032
9,7 6 9
4 0 ,4 9 7
1,801
Fixed
investm ent
Gross
exports
59,561
320
472
12,666
2 6 ,42 3
3 ,020
2 ,108
638
274
9 ,5 7 6
3,791
5,786
1,521
4 ,9 6 8
595
3 8 ,53 3
2 ,3 9 8
770
289
18,490
4,3 4 5
3,555
524
266
4 ,516
3,362
1,154
1,484
5,615
62 6
1 S tate and local governm ent purchases of w elfare cover only ad m in is
NOTE: Negative signs are a result of inpu t-output conventions which
record governm ent sales to the private sector as negative purchases. A
trative expenditures and not the be nefit payments themselves.
2 These calculations were made for all 134 sectors and summed to negative entry results when sales by the governm ent exceed its purchases
the level of detail shown.
from the private sector.
3 Includes forestry and fisheries and agricultural services (indu stry
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
sectors 3 and 4 ).
exceeds the job requirements for private
sector demands. This difference is partly
due to the labor intensiveness of public
activities. However, this difference also fol
lows from the conceptual nature of the sys
tem used in making these calculations.
Since private sector demand not only gener
ates production requirements but also gen
erates profits and depreciation and the
10 9
public sector does not, if the job require
ments for these other elements, in the pri
vate sector were included in the calcula
tions, this would narrow the job requirement
differences somewhat.
This brief comparison of final demand
components makes it evident that the net
gain or loss of job opportunities will depend
on the nature of the sectors affected and
to State and local governments, resulting
from the Federal funds freed by the lower
defense purchases.
For each $1 billion of final demand in
1980, defense generated 96,690 jobs8 and
2
State and local health, welfare, and sanita
tion purchases required 121,232 jobs. The
total effect of this shift in demand of $10
billion would be a net increase of 245,420
job opportunities. One of the major differ
ences between defense purchases and
health, welfare, and sanitation purchases
is found in the job requirements in the
governmental activity itself, or the direct
jobs. Referring back to table 57, it can be
seen that 70,880 government jobs per $1
billion are projected to be required in 1980
for State and local government health, wel
fare, and sanitation activities, while the
comparable figure for defense requirements
is 53,506. Therefore, a $10 billion demand
shift would lower Federal jobs by 535,000
and increase State and local jobs by
709,000, or a net increase of over 170,000
jobs.
The variation in job requirements by ma
jor industrial sector between these two
types of final demand is also quite signifi
cant. Health, welfare, and sanitation pur
chases in 1980 are projected to require
nearly three times the number of jobs in
construction that defense requires. Another
difference in the employment requirements
of these two demand components is in the
service industries. Compared to purchases
for defense, purchases for health, welfare,
and sanitation are projected to require al
most three times as much service industry
employment per $10 billion. The difference
between defense and State and local health,
welfare, and sanitation employment re
quirements in the service industries is
partially explained by the fact that military
hospitals and other military service facili
ties are not included in the private sector
service industries.
In manufacturing, the difference in job
requirements between two categories of
not on the quantative changes in fi .al de
mand alone.
Average versus incremental job requirements
In using the "employment per $1 bil
lion of demand” presented in this chapter,
an important limitation must be kept in
mind. The data provided represent aver
age and not incremental job requirements.
The use of average as opposed to incre
mental manpower requirement factors im
plies that a change in output would result
in a proportional increase in labor inputs.
However, an incremental change in output
could also be met by productivity changes,
changes in capital and labor utilization
rates, and, to some extent, inventories.
Thus, many changes in employment re
sulting from changes in output would not
necessarily be proportional. As a result,
these manpower requirement factors should
be considered as rough estimates of the
relative labor requirement in a particular
year for the various components of final
demand and not as a measure of actual
jobs which would result from shifts in de
mand from one category to another.
Impact of shifts in the structure of demand
Assuming that the level of total final
demand is fixed for the year 1980 (or
1985), alternative demand structures can
be postulated by decreasing demand in one
component by a fixed amount, such as $10
billion, and increasing another component
by a like amount. One alternative that
might be analyzed would be a cutback in
defense expenditures offset by an equal in
crease in nondefense Federal expenditures.
The scenario for such a change could be
that of an arms limitation pact allowing
a cutback in defense and an increase in
spending for State and local government
purchases for health, welfare, and sanita
tion.'8 The State and local spending might
1
follow from increased Federal grants-in-aid
82
The job requirements per $1 billion of defense pur
chases include the Armed Forces. It could be argued
with some justification that changes in defense expendi
tures may not result in any change in the level of the
Armed Forces.
8' i t should be noted that State and local govern
ment purchases for walfare cover only welfare adminis
trative costs and not the benefits paid to recipients.
no
demand is equally impressive. In 1980,
$10 billion of defense purchases would re
quire more than 100,000 more manufactur
ing jobs than health, welfare, and sanita
tion activities of State and local govern
ments (table 59). Because of the variation
in skills required by the industries which
make up the manufacturing sector, a de
tailed look at the sector’s composition by
industry is a more accurate indicator of
possible job changes. Defense purchases
are concentrated in aircraft, ordnance, elec
tronics, and shipbuilding while health, wel
fare, and sanitation purchases are con
centrated in the food, drug, and paper
industries.
Over 56 percent of the employment in
manufacturing required by defense expendi
tures is located in the few industries shown
in table 59 and over 37 percent is found in
aircraft, ship and boat building, and radio
and transmitting devices. The health, wel
fare, and sanitation employment require
ments of State and local governments are
not as concentrated, so that only 21 percent
of the total employment in manufacturing is
accounted for by the selected industries
shown in table 59.
Factors other than a policy shift such as
the one outlined above from defense to
State and locel government purchases
could, of course, be of concern to users of
these data. It is possible, for example, to
want to explore the manpower implications
of different levels of any of the categories
of demand for many reasons — not the least
of which may be the belief that the pro
jections for any one demand category may
be too high or low. For example, it may be
that the consumer durables projections are
judged to be too high (or low) and that the
Table 59. Manufacturing jobs per $10 billion of Federal defense
resulting shift in demand might affect con
purchases and State and local government purchases of health,
sumer services. Such a shift of $10 billion
welfare, and sanitation, 1980
of demand from consumer durables to ser
(Based on data in 1963 dollars)
vices would have little net impact on total
employment in 1980 (12,600 jobs) but
State and local
would have a very significant impact at
government
Defense
health, welfare,
the major sector level (table 60). For exam
Industry
and s a n ita tio n 1
ple, durable goods expenditures by con
Percent
Percent
Jobs
Jobs
sumers require jobs principally in manufac
distribution
dis tribution
turing and trade, while consumer purchases
Total m a n u fac tu rin g. . . . . . . 23 9 ,5 7 0
.
100.0
133,381
100.0
of services have a minimal impact in these
18 Guided missiles and space
sectors. Ten billion dollars of consumer
vehicles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.010
2 84
6.3
2 .1
durable goods requires 269,000 jobs in
.
8,900
3.7
59
19 Other ordnance................
(3 )
manufacturing; $10 billion of consumer ser
2,8 4 0
1.2
7,086
5.3
20 Food p ro d u c ts.................
.
3.4
.
31 Paper p ro d u c ts................
.9
4,4 7 4
2,1 2 0
vices requires 30,000 jobs in this sector.
39 D ru g s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
160
.1
9,584
7.2
One industry alone in manufacturing (motor
71 Computers and peripheral
vehicles) shows larger manpower require
2 ,228
1.7
eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 ,490
1.5
80 O ther electronic
ments related to consumer durable pur
co m m unication
chases than all of the job requirements in
eq uipm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 4 ,0 4 0
10.0
2.1
2,8 1 8
manufacturing for consumer services. In
12 ,1 9 0
1.4
.......
5.1
1,888
81 Electronic com ponents
.4
84 A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 ,9 3 0
.
16.3
477
consumer services, the converse is true —
85 Ship and boat building and
very high employment requirements for
re p a ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 ,6 1 0
280
11.5
.2
consumer services — with several individual
All o th e r. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 4,2 80
43.4
104,430
78 .2
sectors (other personal services, doctors
1 State and local governm ent purchases of w elfare cover only a d m in is
and dentists, hospitals, and nonprofit or
trative expenditures and not the benefit payments themselves.
2 The em ploym ent in this industry for S tate and local purchases re ganizations) having larger manpower re
sults from its close tie to the a irc ra ft industry, which m anufactures guided quirements than the total service sector job
missile parts If civilian and m ilitary a irc ra ft were separated, S tate and local
requirements for consumer durable pur
purchases would not require em ploym ent in the guided missile industry.
chases. The difference between the two cate
3 Less than 0.0 5 percent.
gories of consumer expenditures is particu
NOTE: Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix
larly dramatic in terms of the job requiretable A -2.
111
ments in 1980 and 1985 is one indication
of the needs and priorities of the economy.
sumer services, by major sector and selected industries, 1980
Changes in policy, shifts in consumer taste,
Consumer services
Consum erdurables
or other factors can affect the projected
Percent
Percent
Sector and industry
levels of demand, and thus employment.
Jobs distribution Jobs distribution
Some insight is gained by offering an exami
nation of alternative demand categories
100.0
7 1 0 ,2 4 0
100.0
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 2 ,8 6 0
and their associated labor requirements.
.8
.5
3,590
5,680
A g ricu ltu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
These two examples serve only as illustra
.4
.4
3,000
M in in g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,110
37.2
3 0 ,17 0
4.2
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 6 8 ,7 0 0
tions of what can be done in the way of
(i)
25 ,10 6
3.5
43
29
Household fu r n itu .r.e . . . .
.
examining the impact of shifts in the struc
124
(i)
76
Household applian ces
.....
9,607
1.3
ture of demand on employment as a whole
137
5.5
83
M o tor ve h ic le .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 ,11 7
.
O )
87 M iscellaneous T ran sp o rta
and by industry.
tion e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,763
4
1.1
( i )
Many other alternative demand struc
Tran sportation, co m m un ica
tures can be developed in a manner simi
4.3
4 8 ,6 6 0
6.9
tion, and public u tilitie s . .. 30,760
3.2
48.9
2 2 ,54 0
Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3 ,4 5 0
lar to the analysis just described. A de
Finance, insurance, and
crease in the personal income tax rate and
15.0
real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,760
2.2
106,7 00
the resulting increase in personal consump
5.0
4 5 6 ,8 5 0
64 .3
Other services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 6 ,19 0
8.1
Ill
O ther personal services.... 1,357
.2
5 7 ,84 3
tion expenditures or an increase in invest
118 H ealth services
ment from changes in business tax rates
6 8 .9 5 0
9.7
377
.1
.
except hospitals............
could cause a shift in employment patterns.
(i)
8 2 ,03 4
11.6
81
119
H osp itals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
121. N onprofit organizations.... 11 ,30 0
1.6
3 6 ,6 4 0
5.2
Many policy actions could cause the em
ployment patterns in the economy to
1 Less than 0.0 5 p e rc e n t.
change. Data and examples provided in
NOTE: Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix
this chapter illustrate the use of these man
table A -2.
power requirement factors for discerning
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
the possible job impact of demand patterns
ments in the wholesale and retail trade sec
different from those explored in earlier
tors. Consumer durable purchases are pro
chapters.8
3
jected to require over 350,000 jobs in 1980
per $10 billion; consumer services, on the
83 As a part of research undertaken for the Man
other hand, are projected to require only
power Administration, BLS has in press a study giving
22,500 jobs for the same level of purchases.
procedures for developing manpower requirements by
The composition of employment require
industry and occupation for alternative types of demand.
Table 60. Jobs per $10 billion of consumer durables and con
Chapter 8. Comparison of Previous and Revised 1980 Projections
this publication, the level of the labor force
projection depends on, among other factors,
the census population series chosen, as well
as on projected labor force participation
rates. The previous labor force projections
were derived using census series C popu
lation projections while the present labor
force projection is based on census series
E. The major difference between these two
series is the much lower fertility rate for
women assumec. in series E. This change
in population series results in a shift in the
female population awT from women with
ay
children under 5 to women without children
under 5, who, as described in chapter 1,
traditionally have higher labor force parti
cipation rates. Thus, the effect of basing
the present projection of the labor force on
census series E is to increase the labor
force over the previously projected levels.
Also affecting the labor force are shifts in
Factors determining real GNP
the participation rates themselves. In gener
al, the participation of women in the labor
The revisions in the factors determining
force increased rapidly in the late 1960’s
real GNP, although individually large, are
and early 1970’s. These recent trends have
in the main offsetting so that the overall
had the effect of increasing female labor
growth in real GNP for 1965-80 is lowered
force participation rates in the current set
by only 0.1 percent a year in the current
of projections ever previous expectations.
set of projections. The first of these factors,
Thus, both of the factors revised in the cur
the projection of the size of the labor force
rent set of projections have the effect of
in 1980, was increased by 1.1 percent, re
increasing the labor force projections for
presenting an increase of 1.1 million per
1980 (table 61).
sons over the previously projected level.
The rate of unemployment is assumed to
There are two major factors underlying
be 4 percent in both sets of projections.
this upward shift in the projected level of
However, the unemployment level is up by
the labor force. As is stated elsewhere in
1.9 percent in the current set of projections.
Basically this increase results from two
84
Wherever possible in the following discussion dol changes. First, the labor force projection
has increased. Second, the assumed level
lar items are expressed in a common price base for the
purpose of greater ease in comparison. The most nota
of the Armed Forces was reduced from 2.7
ble exception is in the discussion comparing total output
million to 2 million persons in the present
projections by industry where earlier projections were
set ol projections. Thus, the increase in the
available only in 1958 dollars and revised figures in
civilian labor force is larger than that in
1963 dollars. However, since industry deflators at the
the total labor force. The consequence of
most detailed level would not cause any changes in
composition, the growth rates would not be affected.
this is a larger increase in the number of
The purpose of this chapter is to com
pare previously published projections of
the U. S. economy in 1980 with those pre
sented in this bulletin. Several alternative
1980 projections were presented in the
previous study {Patterns of U S. Economic
.
Growth, Bulletin 1672, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, 1970). For the purposes of this
comparison, the projections developed with
an assumed 4.0 percent rate of unemploy
ment are used.
The discussion in this chapter covers,
first, the macroprojections, or the major
determinants of real gross national product.
Following this is a comparison of the pro
jections of the distribution of real GNP by
major demand categories. Finally, the
industry projections of output and employ
ment are compared.8
4
113
Table 6 1. Major determinants of supply G NP: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections
Levels
Percent
change,
1980 1 to
198011
Projected
Category
1965
19801
1980 II
77,17 7
3 ,3 6 6
73,811
3 ,8 7 8
77 ,68 9
65 ,6 9 5
2,0 5 2
134.8
4.21
6 1 7 ,8
50 .8
56 7.0
.
Labor force (th o u s a n d s .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Unem ployed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Employed (p e rs o n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Adjustm ent fac to r (to jo b s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Em ploym ent (jo b s ) (th o u s a n d .s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Private em p lo y m en.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Average annual man-hours — private. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Tota l private man-hours (b illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
GNP per m an-hour (1 9 5 8 d o lla rs. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Total GNP (billio n s of 1 9 58 d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Government o u tp u.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Private G N P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1968
8 2 ,2 7 2
2,8 1 7
7 9 ,4 5 5
5 ,418
8 4 ,8 7 3
7 0 ,4 2 0
2 ,000
140.9
4 .5 9
7 0 7 .6
59.7
6 4 7 .9
1 0 0 ,7 2 7
3,918
9 6 ,8 0 9
5,225
101,8 67
8 3 ,5 5 2
1,977
165.2
6.54
1.1 5 6 .9
75.9
1 ,081 .0
101,8 09
3,992
97 ,81 7
6 ,259
104,0 76
8 6 ,60 6
1,920
166.3
6.46
1,146.7
73.1
1,073.6
1.07
1.89
1.04
22.47
2.17
3.66
-2 .8 8
0.67
- 1.22
- 0.88
- 3.65
- 0.68
Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1
From 1965
1965-198 01
Labor force (th o u s a n d s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Unem ployed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Employed (p e rs o n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A djustm ent fa c to r (to jo b s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Em ploym ent (jo b s ) (th o u s a n d s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Private em ploym ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Average annual man-hours— private
..................
Total private man-hours (b illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
GNP per m an-hour (1 9 5 8 d o lla r .s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total GNP (billio n s of 19 58 d o lla rs )
...................
Governm ent o u tp u.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Private G N P. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.8
1.0
1.8
- .1
1.8
1.6
- .3
1.4
3.0
4.3
2.7
4.4
1965-198011
D iffere n tial
1.9
1.1
19
13
2.0
19
0.1
.1
.1
1.4
.2
.3
-.2
.0
-.1
-.1
-.2
.2
-
5
1.4
29
4.2
2.5
4.4
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCE:
From 1 9 68
1 9 6 8 -1 9 8 0 1
1.7
2.8
1.7
- .3
1.5
1.4
- .1
1.3
3.0
4 .2
2.0
4.4
1 9 68 -80 II
D iffere n tial
1.8
3.0
1.8
1.2
1.7
1.7
- .3
1.4
2.9
4.1
1.6
4 .3
0 .1 .2
.1
1.5
.2
.3
- .2
.1
-.1
-.1
-.4
-.1
NOTE: 19 80 I is from previous set of 19 80 projection s (4-pe
m o del) published in Patterns of . S . Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (B uU
reau of Labor Statistics , 1 9 7 0 ). 1 9 80 II is from cu rre n t set
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
converted to 1958 dollars for comparability purposes.
conversion factor, combined with the slight
increase in the projection of employment
on a persons basis, accounted for an in
crease of almost 2.2 percent in the pro
jected level of employment (on a jobs con
cept), or an increase of slightly more than
2.2 million jobs. It is interesting to analyze
this increase in employment by sector:
unemployed than in the previous pro
jections.
These changes in the projected levels of
the labor force and unemployment had the
net effect of increasing employment (on a
persons concept) by just over 1 million (or
approximately 1 percent) between the pre
vious and the current projections. In con
verting projected employment levels from
persons to jobs, a conversion factor based
on a representative historical period is used.
In the previous set of 1980 projections, the
conversion factor was based on the 1965
ratio. In the present set of projections it
was rebased to the 1967-69 period. The
effect of this change is to increase the con
version factor by 22.5 percent from the
previous level. This large change in the
Previous
1980 projections
Revised
19 80 projections
P erc en t
Percent
Em ploym ent distri- Em ploym ent distri(thousands) bution (thousands) bution
T o ta l em ploym ent. . . . . . . . . ....
..
P riv a te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .....
..
fe d e ra l G o v e rn m e n............ ....
t
M ilita r y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .....
.
C iv ilia n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tate and local g o v e rn m e n t,..
....
114
19 1,8 67 10 0.0
8 3 ,55 2
8 2 .0
4 ,900
4.9
2,700
2.7
2 ,200
2.2
13,41 5
13.1
10 4,0 76
8 6 ,60 6
4 ,075
2 ,000
2,075
13,395
10 0.0
33 .2
3.9
1.9
2.0
12.9
The movement has been towards increasing
the private sector’s share of employment.
The decline in the public share has occurred
at all levels of government but is particu
larly large for the military.
In this set of projections, the projected
level of average annual hours fell below the
previous projection by 2.9 percent. Histori
cally, average annual hours have been de
clining. The rate of decline accelerated,
however, in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s,
thus accounting for the more severe de
cline in average annual hours in the cur
rent set of projections. The decline in
annual hours in the private sector of the
economy is 0.1 percent a year in 1968-80
in the previous set of projections compared
to 0.4 percent a year in the current set.
To a considerable extent the decline in
average hours tended to offset the projected
employment increases. Yet, despite this
drop in average hours, the projection of
total private man-hours still increased by
almost 1.0 percent. This is because the
very large increase in private employment
more than outweighed the lower projection
of average annual hours.
The projection of GNP per man-hour de
creased by 1.2 percent from the previously
projected level. This is due basically to a
change in the underlying assumption re
garding the rate of growth of nonfarm
productivity. In the previous set of pro
jections this rate of growth was assumed
to be 2.8 percent a year. Due to changes
in the long-term rate this assumption of
private nonfarm productivity has been re
set at 2.7 percent a year, thus: resulting in
a slightly lower projection of GNP per man
hour in 1980 in the present projections.
Combining these factors, the effect on
real GNP is to lower the 1980 projection
by 0.9 percent below the previous projec
tion for 1980 (in real terms). The growth
rate in real GNP in 1965-80 has been
lowered to 4.2 percent a year from 4.3 per
cent in the previous set of projections. For
1968-80 the growth rate in real GNP is
lowered from 4.2 percent in the previous
projections to 4.1 percent in the current
set.
The distribution of GNP by contributing
sector remains remarkably unchanged be
tween the two sets of projections:
Previous
1980 projections
GNP
(billio n s
of 1 9 6 3
dollars)
Total G N P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$1 ,1 5 6 .9
P riv a te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -1 , 0 8 1 .0
G ove rn m en .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
75 .9
Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23 .4
M ilita r y. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.5
C ivilian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12.9
State and local
..................
52.6
Percent
distribution
100.0
Revised
19 80 projections
GNP
(b illio n s
of 1 9 63
dollars
Percent
distribution
$ 1 ,1 4 6 .7
93 .4
1 ,0 7 3 .6
93 .6
6.6
73.1
6.4
2.0
20 .3
1.8
.9 7.9
.7
1.1
12 .4
1
4.6
52 .9
4.6
About the only change of significance is
the military constant-dollar wage bill,
which has declined slightly because of the
lower assumed level of the Armed Forces.
The other government sectors have main
tained their share of GNP between the two
sets of projections while the distribution
between public and private is remarkably
stable.
Distribution of demand GNP
The distribution of demand GNP among
its major components changed only moder
ately between the two sets of projections—
in some cases it was difficult to isolate the
contributing factors.
While total personal consumption expen
ditures increased their share of GNP by
1980 by just over 0.6 percent, the major
components of personal consumption
changed more radically (table 62). Pur
chases of both durable and nondurable
goods by consumers are higher than pre
viously expected levels, mainly due to in
creased consumption of autos (durables)
and food (nondurables). These increases
were offset to some extent by a lower pro
jection of housing services as the housing
slowdown is expected to have its full effect
in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.
Gross private domestic investment in
the current set of projections increases its
share of 1980 GNP by less than 0.3 per
cent. This figure is somewhat misleading
however, as there are some sharper shifts
within the components of investment. The
projected level of nonresidential fixed in
vestment, for example, has increased its
115
100.0
ginning in the late 1970’s also appear in
residential fixed investment as it decreased
its share of GNP by approximately 0.2 per
cent below the previous set of projections.
Net exports as currently projected are
moderately lower as a percent of GNP (by
just over 0.3 percent). However, the compo
nents of net exports exhibit more startling
changes from the previous set of pro-
share of GNP over the previous 1980 pro
jection by almost 0.8 percent. For the most
part, this is due to a higher level of invest
ment in producers’ durable equipment than
was previously expected in 1980. This
higher level reflects both the higher levels
of recent investment and investment needs
related to pollution control. The effects of
the leveling off in housing expenditures be
Table 62. G NP by major demand category: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections
Billions of 1958 dollars
Percent
change
1980 1
Projected
Category
1965
1968
19801
198011
Gross national product. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$617.8
..
$70 7.6
$1,156.9
$1,146.4
-0 .9 2
452.6
80.7
196.9
175.0
105.7
99.1
75.8
22.7
53.2
23.3
6.6
.9
45.6
44.7
148.4
78.9
61.7
17.2
69.5
751.9
132.1
293.4
326.4
184.8
169.8
129.3
36.2
93.1
40.5
15.0
9.5
78.5
69.0
208.9
84.3
49.0
35.3
124.6
753.4
147.9
303.9
301.6
186.8
175.0
137.0
37.8
99.2
38.0
11.8
5.5
103.5
98.0
200.7
74.3
50.4
23.9
126.4
.21
11.96
3.58
- 7.60
1.08
3.06
5.96
4.42
6.55
- 6.17
-2 1.3 3
-4 2 .1 1
31.84
42.03
-3 .9 3
- 11 86
2.86
- 32.29
1.44
Personal consumption expenditures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397.7
Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.6
.
Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .178.6
.
Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .152.5
.
Gross private domestic investment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.2
Fixed investment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90.1
Nonresidential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.3
Structures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.3
Producers’ durable equipment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44.0
Residential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23.8
Change in business inventories. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0
Net exports of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2
Exports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37.4
Imports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31.2
Government purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 .7
Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57.9
.
Defense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43.3
.
Nondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.6
State and local. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56.8
.
to 198011
Percent distribution
1965
1968
19801
198011
Gross national p ro d u c.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Personal consum ption ex p e n d itu re .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 .37
.
Durable goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.78
.
Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28.91
S e rv ice s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 4 .68
.
Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.06
.
Fixed in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4.58
.
N o n re s id e n tia l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10.73
S tru ctu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.61
Producers’ durable e q u ip m e n .t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
7.12
R esidential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.85
.
Change in business in v e n to rie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.48
N et exports of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.00
..
E x p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.0 5
Im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.05
Governm ent purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.57
F ederal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 .37
.
Defense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 .01
Nondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 6
S ta te and lo c al. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 0
.
6 3 .9 6
11.40
27 .8 3
2 4 .7 3
14.94
14.01
10.71
3.21
7.50
3.30
.93
.13
6.44
6.31
20 .97
11.15
8.72
2.43
9.82
65 .09
11.44
2 5 .40
28 .25
16 .00
14 .70
11.19
3.13
8.06
3.51
1.30
.82
6.80
5.98
18 .09
7.30
4 .2 4
3.06
10.79
65 .7 2
12.90
26.51
26.31
16.29
15.27
11.95
3.30
8.65
3.32
1.02
.48
9.0 3
8.55
17.51
6.4 8
4.4 0
2.0 8
11.03
See foo tn o te s at end of table.
116
Table 62. G NP by major demand category: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections—Continued
Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1
From 1965
Category
1 9 65 -198 0 1 19 65 -198 0
Gross national p ro d u c t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal consum ption ex p e n d itu re s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S erv ice s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Gross private dom estic in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fixed in v e s tm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n re s id e n tia l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tru ctu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Producers’ durable e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
R esidential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Change in business in v e n to rie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
Net exports of goods and services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
E x p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Government purchases of goods and services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Defense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondefense. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
S tate and loc al. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
From 1968
II D iffe r 19 6 8 -1 9 8 0 1 1968-80 II D iffe r
ential
ential
4.3
4.2
-0 .1
4.2
4.3
4.7
3.4
5.2
4.3
4.3
4.5
3.3
5.2
3.6
3.5
2.9
5.1
5.4
4.1
2.6
.8
6.1
5.4
4.4
5.5
3.6
4.6
4.3
4.5
4.9
3.6
5.6
3.2
1.8
-.8
7.0
7.9
3.8
1.7
.1
.8
.2
-.6
.0
.2
.4
.3
.4
-.4
-1 .7
-3 .7
1.9
2.5
-.3
-.9
.2
-2 .8
.1
4.3
4.2
3.4
5.3
4.7
3.7
4.5
4.0
4.8
4.7
7.1
22.0
4.6
3.7
2.9
.6
- 1.9
6.2
5.0
1.0
3.3
5.5
4.1
4.3
5.2
3.7
4.6
4.9
4.9
5.1
4.3
5.3
4.2
4.8
16.3
7.1
6.8
2.6
.5
- 1.7
2.8
5.1
-0 .1
.0
1.0
.3
-.7
.2
1.2
.6
.3
.5
-.5
-2 .3
-3 .7
2.5
3.1
-.3
-1 .1
.2
-3 .4
.1
1 Compound interest rates between term in al years.
SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. D epartm ent of Comm erce,
Economic Analysis converted to 1958 dollars by Bureau of Labor Statistics;
NOTE: 1 9 8 0 1 is from previous set of 1 9 8 0 projections ( 4-percent basic
projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics,
m odel) published in Patterns o f U.S. Econom ic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (Bu
reau of Labor S tatistics, 1 9 7 0 ). 1980 II is from current set o f projections
converted to 1958 dollars for com parability purposes.
jections. Previously, exports were expected
to account for 8.8 percent of real GNP in
1980. However, due to higher projections
for a broad range of export items as well
as higher projected returns on U. S. invest
ment abroad, gross exports are now ex
pected to be approximately 9 percent of
GNP in 1980. This implies an expected rate
of growth of exports of 7.1 percent in 196880 as opposed to the previous projection
of 4.6 percent a year. Import projections
also reflect much higher rates of growth
than were previously expected, mainly for
crude and refined petroleum products.8
5
The 1968-80 growth rate differential (be
tween current and the previous set of pro
jections) for gross imports is 3.1 percent
compared to 2.4 percent for gross exports.
As a whole, the government share of
GNP is expected to be 0.6 percent less
than was previously expected. Within gov
ernment, however, Federal defense spend
ing is up slightly due to expected extensive
fleet rebuilding that was not considered in
the previous set of projections. Federal non
defense spending is considerably lower in
this set of projections because expenditures
for space programs are no longer expected
to experience large growth as they were in
the previous projections. State and local
government expenditures have increased
their share of GNP slightly as expenditures
on health and welfare as well as for general
government are expected to increase more
rapidly than in the previous 1980 projec
tions.
B5This reflects the assumption used in the current
set of projections that the gap which is expected be
tween supply and demand of energy will be met largely
by increases in imported crude and refined petroleum
products.
Agriculture is not only expected to con
tinue its historical decline as a portion of
GNP (as measured by gross product ori
ginating) but to do so at a more rapid rate
Changes in gross product originating
117
Table 63. Gross product originating by major sector: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections
Percent
change
19 801
to 1980 II
Billions of 1958 dollars
Sector
1968
19801
1980 II
T o ta l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $.6 .1 7 .8
. .
$ 707.6
$ 1 ,1 5 6 .9
$ 1 ,1 4 6 .4
-0 .9 2
A g ric u ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 4.7
.
M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4.8
.
C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23.5
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .190.3
.
59 .3
Tran sp o rtatio n , co m m un ication, and public u tilitie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.. .
T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105.0
...
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.4
O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 7.5
.
Governm ent and governm ent en terp rise.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58.1
. .
O ther 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1.2
24 .8
16.3
24.1
2 2 0 .8
70.1
119.6
95.5
65 .8
68 .6
2.0
35.9
20.2
61.5
34 9.2
125.4
185.6
179.6
114.1
73.1
12.3
26.8
18.7
31.9
361.5
139.1
20 0 .3
16 2.0
119.4
85 .8
1.2
- 2 5 .3 5
-7 .4 3
- 4 8 .1 3
3.52
10.93
7.92
-9 .8 0
4.65
17.37
- 90.24
1965
Percent distribution
1965
1968
19801
1980 II
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100.0
...
100.0
100.0
10 0.0
A g ric u ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0
M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.4
C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30.8
.
9.6
.. .
Tran sp o rtatio n , co m m un ication, and public u tilitie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17.0
.
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.5
O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3
9.4
Governm ent and governm ent en terp rise.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .
O ther 1 ' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
3.5
2.3
3.4
31.2
9.9
16.9
13.5
9.3
9.7
.3
3.1
1.7
5.3
30.2
10.8
16.0
15.5
9.9
6.3
1.2
2.3
1.6
2.8
31 .5
12.1
17.5
14.1
10.4
7.5
.2
Average annual rates of c h a n g e 2
From 1968
From 1965
1965 19 8 0 1
1965-198011
D iffe r 19 68 -1 9 8 0 1
ential
1 9 68 -80 II
D iffe r
ential
T o t a l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3
4.2
- 0.1
4 .2
4.1
- 0.1
A g ric u ltu re . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5
M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1
C o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6
.
M a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.1
T ran sportation, co m m un ication, and public u tilitie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.. .
5.1
T r a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.2
O ther services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6
Governm ent and governm ent en terp rise s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.6
O t h e r 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.8
.6
1.6
2.0
4.4
5.9
4.4
4.5
5.0
2.7
0
- 1.9
- .5
- 4.4
.3
.8
.5
-.7
.4
1.1
-1 6 .8
3.1
1.8
8.1
3.9
4.9
3.7
5.4
4.7
.6
164
.7
1.1
2.4
4.2
5.9
4.4
4.5
5.1
1.9
2.4
- 7
-5 .7
.3
1.0
.7
-.9
.4
1.3
-2 0 .6
1
__ l l ! __
1 Contains value added in rest of th e world, households, and inventory
NOTE: 1980 I is from previous set of 1 9 80 projections (4-p e rce n t basic
valuation ad justm ent.
m o del) published in Patterns of U.S. Economic G rowth, B ulletin 1672 (B u
2 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
reau of Labor S tatistics, 1 9 7 0 ). 19 80 II is from cu rrent set of projections
converted to 1 9 58 dollars fo r co m parability purposes.
SOURCE:
118
Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
Table 64.
Industries for which projections of domestic output growth rates differed by more than 2 percentage points
Previous projections
Industry
1965 dom estic
output
19 80 dom estic
output
Billions of 1958 dollars
26 M iscellaneous fab ricated textile p ro d u .c. ts. . . .
..
. .
4 3 ,4 4 Rubber and plastic p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
58 Metal co ntain e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
63 Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to.rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
73 Service industry m achin es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
$ 3.3
12.3
2.6
2.9
4.3
$ 5.7
30.4
4.2
5.2
10.9
’ Average
annual rates of change computed as compound interest
between term inal years.
NOTE:
table A -2.
Revised projections
Growth rate
1 9 6 5 -8 0 '
3.6
6.2
3.2
4.1
6.4
1965 dom estic 1980 dom estic
Growth rate
output
outpu t
1 9 6 5 -8 0 '
Billions of 1963 dollars
$ 3.7
12.2
2.7
2.9
4.2
SOURCE:
$ 8.5
56.1
5.9
8.3
15.2
5.7
10.7
5.4
7.3
9.0
Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Industry numbers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix
showed a growth differential of 2.1 points.
This is mainly due to greater expected
growth in demand for the output of this
industry as knit goods increase their share
of the clothing market. The rate of growth
in the rubber and plastic products industry
increased greatly over the previous pro
jections for 1965-80. This is primarily a
result of larger expected growth in the in
termediate uses of these products. Rubber
and plastic products are more and more
being put to new uses as well as substitut
ing for other materials in the production
process. It is felt that this trend will con
tinue at a more rapid rate than was pre
viously projected. The relatively recent shift
away from glass as a packaging material
(primarily in the processed food industry)
has caused the expected rate of growth of
output of the metal containers industry to
increase by 2.2 percentage points in this
set of projections over the previous projec
tion. The engines, turbines, and generators
industry is expected to grow much more
rapidly than past projections show as the
demand for electric power increases. Finally,
service industry machine output showed a
growth differential of 2.6 percentage points
as intermediate uses for the output of this
industry are expected to grow more rapidly
than the previous set of projections sug-
than was previously projected. (See table
63). The same holds true in the mining sec
tor, which accounts for 1.6 percent of GNP
in the current 1980 projections as opposed
to 1.7 percent in the previous set of pro
jections. Four sectors — manufacturing;
transportation, communications, and pub
lic utilities; wholesale and retail trade; and
governm ent86—have significantly in
creased their share of GNP over previously
projected levels. Two other sectors —con
struction; and finance, insurance, and real
estate — underwent significant declines in
their shares of GNP from the last set of
projections. The other services sector main
tained a roughly constant share of GNP
between both sets of projections.
C h a n g e s in in d u s try o u tp u t a n d e m p lo y m e n t
Output. At the industry level of detail,
there were pronounced changes in output
projections.8 Five industries exhibited
7
growth rate differentials of more than 2
percentage points. (See table 64).8 The
8
miscellaneous fabricated textiles industry
86
Includes both general government and govern
ment enterprises.
87In the current set of projections, separate esti
mates were made for approximately 134 sectors while
the previous projections were developed for about 80
industries. Therefore, to make the output and employ
ment comparison at the most detailed industry level,
it was necessary to aggregate the current set of pro
jections to the level of detail used in the previous 1980
projections.
8
8An additional industry, the agriculture, forestry,
and fishery services industry, also had an expected rate
of growth with a difference of more than 2 percentage
points. However, the differential of 2.1 points is pri
marily due to a redefinition of the historical output series
for this industry.
1 19
gested. A major factor in this increased
rate of growth is the rise in the use of air
conditioners, a primary product of this in
dustry. The five industries discussed above
and shown in table 64 are these which
showed the largest differences between the
previous and present projections of domes
tic output. For the most part, projections of
domestic output for the remaining industries
were relatively unchanged.
Employment. At the major sector level
of detail there was little noticeable change
in civilian employment in the new 1980
projections compared with the previous set.
In most cases, the growth rate differential
for the two projections of employment was
quite small. Only two major sectors (among
the smallest in terms of their 1965 employ
ment) exhibited significant changes in em
ployment between the two sets of projec
tions. The household sector employment
projection was lower by 34.1 percent, im
plying a differential of-2.7 percentage points
in the growth rate (table 65). This change
results from a major turnaround in the em
ployment of household service workers, pre
viously a growing sector but more recently
a declining one. Employment in the finance,
insurance, and real estate sector increased
by 16.5 percent over the previous level
projected for 1980. (In terms of the project
ed growth rate this amounts to 1 percent
age point a year.)
At the industry level of the projections
however, larger variations occurred. The in
dustries with the most change in terms of
projected employment are shown in table
66. The revised projection of employment in
the livestock and crops industry was 17
percent lower than the previous 1980 pro
jection, reflecting the belief that the shift
from farm to nonfarm jobs will continue and
also that productivity will increase more
rapidly than was previously expected.8
9
8 9 In addition to those industries listed in table 66,
two others showed significant change. These changes,
however, were due to redefinitions in the employment
series for the forestry and fisheries industry and the
agriculture, forestry, and fishing services industry.
Two mining sectors appear in this list.
One is nonferrous mining, where larger in
creases are primarily attributable to ex
pected increases in uranium mining as the
United States continues to accelerate the
construction of nuclear plants for generating
electric power. The coal mining industry is
expected to undergo a turnaround in terms
of production, and thus employment, as the
Nation’s other sources of energy continue
to fall short of demand. Thus, projected
employment in coal mining increased by
more than 59 percent over the previous
projections; this reflected not only larger
increases in output but also lower produc
tivity projections.
Employment in the construction indus
tries is expected to be approximately 10
percent lower than in the previous projec
tion. In part, this is accounted for by an
expected slowdown in the residential build
ing boom of the late 1960 and early
1970’ s. However, for the most part, the de
cline may be attributed to lower projections
for the construction of Federal and State
highway systems.
Post-Vietnam declines in military spend
ing and the resulting employment cutbacks
have been much sharper than was pre
viously expected; this had the effect of
lowering projected employment in the ord
nance, aircraft, and communications equip
ment industries.
In many industries employment projec
tions were higher than before as a result of
the earlier underestimation of demand. Pro
jected employment in the miscellaneous tex
tiles and floor coverings industry was al
most 14 percent over the previously projec
ted level. This is largely due to the intro
duction of knit goods which has increased
intermediate demand from this industry
more rapidly than initially expected. Glass
containers (especially in the food industry)
are expected to decline in use due to the
difficulty of recycling, thus boosting the out
put and employment prospects in the paperboard and metal containers industries (both
up by 23 percent). The demand for electri
cal generators and steam turbines is ex
pected to increase rapidly over the projec
tion period as attempts are made to meet
energy shortages. For this reason employ120
Table 65.
Employment by major sector: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections
Thou sand sof jobs
Sector
Percent Average annual ra te s o f change '
change,
1 9 6 5 - D iffe re n tia l
19801 to 1965198011
198011 19801
19801
1980 II
Tota l em ploym ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7. 4 ,5 6 8
9 8 ,6 0 0
10 1,1 86
2.6
1.9
2.0
A gricu lture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ,671
.
M in in g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 667
C onstruction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 ,9 9 4
M a n u fa c tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18,45 4
..
Tran sportation, com m unication, and public u tilitie s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ,2 5 0
W holesale and retail tra d e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15,35 2
.
Finance, insurance, and real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,367
..
Other private services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 ,11 8
.
Government and governm ent en terprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,091
H ouseholds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 ,604
3,156
584
5,427
2 2 ,1 3 3
4 ,926
2 0 ,28 2
4 ,598
18,097
16,632
2 ,770
2,720
655
4 ,9 0 8
2 2 ,52 9
5,317
2 1 ,6 9 5
5,349
1 9 ,60 3
16,585
1,825
- 13.1
12.2
- 9.6
1.8
7.9
7.0
16.5
8.3
-.3
- 34.1
-2 .6
-.9
2.0
1.2
1.0
1.9
2.1
3.3
3.4
.4
-3 .5
-.1
1.4
1.4
1.5
2.3
3.1
3.8
3.4
-2 .3
1965
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCE:
0.1
-.9
.8
- .6
.2
.5
.4
1.0
.5
.0
- 2.7
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
NOTE: 1980 I is from previous set of 1 9 80 projections (4-pe rce nt basic
m odel) published inPatterns of U .S . Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (B u
reau of Labor S tatistics, 1 9 7 0 ). 1980 II is from current set of projections.
Table 66.
Employment in selected industries: a comparison of previous and revised 1980 projections
Thou sand sof jobs
Industry
1-2
6-7
8
12-17
19
23
30
32
58
62
63
69
71-72
75
77
79 -80
83
84
86 -87
90-91
99
106-107
10 8-1 09
115
133
1965
Livestock and crops. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 ,3 3 8
N onferrous m etal ore m ining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
56
Coal m ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
C ons truc tion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,9 9 4
..
O rd n a n c e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 6
Miscellaneous textiles and flo o r coverings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
115
O ther fu r n itu r e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
P ap erb o ard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
M etal co ntain e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Other fabricated metal p r od uc ts ............................................................
42 8
Engines, turbines, and g e n erato. rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
91
General industrial m a chinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
26 6
Computers, typew riters, and other office eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
191
Electrical industrial a p p a ra tu s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362
Electric lighting and w irin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Telephone and telegraph apparatus and other electronic
com m unication eq u ip m e n .t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
550
M otor ve h ic le s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 844
A ir c r a ft. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 625
.
Transportation e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 276
Optical and photographic e q u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
. .
Com m unications, except radio and T.V. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
776
Finance and insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,5 9 8
...
Real e s ta te . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 769
.
Autom obile re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
501
H ouseholds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,6 0 4
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCE:
19 80 1
198011
2,772
60
98
5,427
247
201
206
243
79
530
119
323
396
475
247
2 ,3 0 0
79
156
4,9 0 8
204
218
171
298
97
631
158
377
494
550
305
-1 7 .0
31.7
59 .2
-9 .6
-1 7 .4
8.5
-1 7 .0
22 .6
22 .8
19.1
32.8
16.7
24 .7
15.8
23.5
-2 .9
.5
-2 .7
2.1
.6
3.8
3.2
1.3
.7
1.4
1.8
1.3
5.0
1.8
2.3
-4 .1
2.3
.3
1.4
-.7
4.4
1.9
2.7
2.1
2.6
3.8
2.3
6.6
2.8
3.7
-1 2
1.8
3.0
-.7
-1 .3
.6
-1 .3
1.4
1.4
1.2
2.0
1.0
1.6
1.0
1.4
752
892
753
348
178
962
3,653
940
657
2 ,770
638
1,030
656
535
213
1,150
4 ,219
1,130
785
1,825
-1 5 .2
15.5
-2 5 .0
53.7
19.7
19.5
15.5
20.2
19.5
-3 4 .1
2.1
.4
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.5
2.3
1.4
1.8
.4
1.0
1.4
-.7
4.5
3.3
2.6
3.3
2.6
3.0
-2 .3
-1 .1
1.0
-2 .0
2.9
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.2
-2 .7
NOTE: 1980 I is from previous set of 1980 projections (4-pe
m odel) published inPatterns of U .S . Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672 (Bureau of Labor S tatistics, 1 9 7 0 ). 19 80 II is from current set
Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix tab le A-2.
Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
Percent Average annual rate sof c h a n g e '
change,
D iffe r
1965 19 80 1 to 19 65 198011 1980 1 198011
ential
121
Table 67.
Differences in projected growth rates for 1980 domestic output and employment, by industry
—
Industry
Domestic output Em ploym ent
growth rate
growth rate
d iffe r e n tia l1
d iffe re n tia l1
1
2
Livestock and livestock p ro d u c...
ts
Crops and other agricultural
p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3 Forestry and fis h e rie .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
4 Agriculture, forestry, and fishery
services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 Iron ore m in in.g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
6-7 Nonferrous m etal ore m ining. . . . . . . . . .
8 Coai m ining. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 Crude p e tro le u m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
10 Stone and clay mining and quarrying
11 Chem ical and fe rtilize r m ining. . . . .
...
12-16 New c o n s tru c tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17 M aintenance and re p a ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
18-19 Ordnance and accesso ries
.............
20 Food p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
21 Tobacco m a n u fac tu rin g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
22 Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills. . . . . .
...
23 Miscellaneous tex tiles and floor
c o verin g s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
24 -25 A p p a re .l. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
26 Miscellaneous fab ricate d textile
p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
27 -2 8 Lum ber and wood p roduc...........
ts
.
29 Household f u r n itu r .e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30 O ther fu rn itu re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
31 Paper p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
32 P a p e rb o a rd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
33 -34 P rinting and publishing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
35 -36 Chem ical pro d u c .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.....
•3 7 -3 8 Plastics and synthetic m a teria ls
3 9 4 0 Drugs and cleaning and to ile t
p re p a ra tio n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
41 P a in t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
42 Petroleum p ro d u c .ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
4 3 4 4 Rubber and m iscellaneous plastic
p ro d u c ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
45 Leather, footw ear, and leather
p ro d u c ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
46 G lass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4 9 -5 0
51 -57
58
59 -60
61
Prim ary iron and steel m anufacturing
Prim ary nonferrous m etal
m a n u fa c tu rin g. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
M etal c o n tain e rs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Heating, plum bing, and structural
m etal
Screw m achine p ro d u c.ts. . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
-0 . 1
62
63
64
65
)
-1 .5
-1 . 0
1.3
2.1
3.2
1.5
1.2
-2 . 0
- .6
2.8
- .4 1
-3 .4 . |
- .1
- .7
- 1.2
-.9
2.5
.3
1
-5 .6
66
67
68
69
70
71-72
2.8
.3
2.3
3.8
1.9
- .4
0
-
Industry
73
74-75
76
77
78-80
.9
- 1.6
.1
.4
1.1
81
82
1.5
-6
83
84
8 5 -8 7
88 -8 9
2.6
.6
-1 . 4
-.5
-.7
3
- .1
1.2
2.5
.7
-5 . 9
.6
-1 .6
.1
18
.3
.7
.3
1.9
-.9
-1 . 2
.6
.6
.7
4.9
1.1
.6
1.1
- 2
.1
-.7
.9
- .4
.5
100
10 1 -1 0 3
105
1 0 6-1 07
1 0 8-1 09
110-111
11 2-1 14
115
11 6-1 17
118-121
- .7
2.9
-.7
1.7
1 2 2-1 24
125
1.6
.1
.6
1.0
133
90-91
92
93 -9 8
99
Dom estic output Employm ent
growth rate
growth rate
d iffe r e n tia l1 d iffe re n tia l'
O ther fab ricate d m etal p ro d u c ts..
Engines, turbines, and generators
Farm m achin ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Construction, m ining, and oilfield
m a ch in ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M ateria i handling eq u ip m e......
nt
M etalw orking m a chinery
............
Special industry m a c h in e........
ry
General industrial m a chinery
......
Machine shop p ro d u c .ts. . . . . . . . . . .
.
O ffice, com puting, and
ac counting m achin es. . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Service industry m achin es. . . . . . . . . .
Electric industrial e q u ip m e.....
nt
Household applian ces. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Electric lighting and w irin.g . . . . . .
. .
Radio, TV, and com m unication
eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Electronic co m ponents. . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Miscellaneous electrical
m a ch in ery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M o to r v e h ic le.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
A ir c r a ft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
O ther tran s p o rtatio n equipm ent...
S cien tific and co ntrolling in
s tru m e n ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Optical and photographic
eq u ip m e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.....
Miscellaneous m anufac tu rin g
T ra n s p o rta tio n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Com m unications, except radio ■
and T V . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Radio and TV broadcasting . . . . . .
...
U tilitie.s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
T r a d .e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Finance and insurance. . . . . . . . . . . .
...
..
Real e s ta te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Hotels; other personal services....
Business and professional services
.
Autom obile re p a.ir. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
A m us em e nts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
H ealth, educational services, and
nonp ro fit o rg a n iza tio n s. . . . . . . . . . .
Federal Governm ent e n te rp ris e s ..
S tate and local governm ent enterprises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
H ouseholds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.6
3.8
0
1.5
2.4
-1 .2
.7
1.9
.9
-.5
1.5
1.0
.9
- .8
- 1
-1 .0
14
-.6
.5
3.1
1.0
-.9
.6
1.9
.4
1.2
-.1
1.8
.3
-.3
- 1.4
-.7
.0
.6
1.2
5.4
.0
1.2
-2 .3
3.6
.1
.6
- 9
-1 .7
1.6
-
1.4
-.1
-1 .5
-.1
- .4
-.8
-3 .0
.1
.0
-3 . 3
1.5
-.6
.5
-.6
1.4
1.5
-.5
.7
1.5
4
- .4
.5
1.0
-.1
- 1.4
(2 )
0
-3 .3
16
.5
.4
2 Not available.
1 A projected 1 9 68 -80 rate of growth was developed using previous
projections of dom estic outpu t in 1 9 5 8 dollars. The same rate of growth
NOTE: Industry num bers refer to sectoring plan shown in appendix
was developed for present projections of dom estic o utpu t in 1 9 63 dollars.
The d iffe ren tia l was arrived at by su btracting the previously projected growth table A-2.
rate from the present projected rate. Thus, positive diffe ren tia ls im ply higher
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor S tatistics.
rates of growth than previously projected. The same m ethodology was u ti
lized in the analysis of em ploym ent projections.
122
ment in the engines, turbines, and genera
tors industry is expected to be approxi
mately 33 percent higher than previously
projected. The transportation equipment
industries as a whole are expected to have
54 percent more employment in 1980 than
was previously projected. In part this is due
to increasing demand for intercity and intra
city transit systems. However, most of the
increase in projected employment is linked
to the assumption that the United States
will undertake an extensive program to re
build its naval fleet during the projection
period, which expands the employment pro
jections in the shipbuilding industry.
Other industries which are expected to
have higher employment in this set of pro
jections compared to the previous set, large
ly because of lower projected changes in
output per man-hour, are: fabricated metal
products other than containers; general in
dustrial machinery; computers and periph
eral equipment; typewriters and other office
equipment; electrical apparatus, electric
lighting and wiring; motor vehicles; optical
and opthalmic equipment; photographic equipment and supplies; communications, ex
cept radio and TV broadcasting; finance;
insurance; real estate; and automobile re
pair. There were other shifts in industry
employment projections, but those dis
cussed here cover the bulk of these changes.
Table 67 presents the growth rate differ
entials in output and employment for all
industries for which comparisons could be
made. Some aggregation of industries was
necessary because of redefinitions in the
sectoring plan since the earlier set of pro
jections.
123
Appendix A. Methods of Developing the 1980 and 1985 Projections
Throughout the text of this bulletin the
methods used in developing the 1980 and
1985 projections have received only a limit
ed explanation in order to provide a con
cise statement of findings and analyses for
the reader with little interest in methodol
ogy. This appendix is intended to fill the
gap for those who may have a greater in
terest in the techniques used.
The first part of this appendix discusses
in considerable detail each of the separate
elements involved in developing the projec
tions. The final part of the appendix dis
cusses some current work and plans to im
prove both the data and the methods to be
used in making future projections.
In outline form, the projection process
may be delineated as follows:
1.
Factors determining real potential GNP
In making projections of the U.S. econo
my in 1980 and 1985, it is first necessary
to develop a projected rate of growth for
potential real gross national product over
the appropriate time period. In this case,
two time periods were utilized: 1968-80 and
1980-85. In order to determine the growth
rate of potential GNP, several factors af
fecting this growth rate must first be pro
jected.
First, the growth rate of the labor force
is projected to the target years by the Of
fice of Manpower Structure and Trends,
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Basically, two
items enter these projections. First, labor
force participation rates are projected for
men, women with children under 5 years of
age, and women without children under 5.
Second, an assumption must be made as to
the long-term trends of the fertility rate.
This determines the mix of the female popu
lation between the two previously mentioned
categories. Given these two factors, projec
tions of the labor force in 1980 and 1985
are then made. 1
The 1980 and 1985 civilian labor force
unemployment rate is set by assumption,
as is the number of individuals in the
Armed Forces. Civilian employment in the
target years is then determined by sub
tracting military employment from the pro-
Projection of real potential GNP on an aggregate
basis using:
A. Labor force
B. Employment
C. Average annual hours
D. Output per man-hour
II.
development of the 1980 and 85 projec
tions. This discussion is not only useful for
those who wish to use the projections, but
necessary for those who wish to introduce
their own modifications to better meet their
individual needs.
Estimation and distribution of demand GNP with:
A. Thurow econometric model
B. Demand disaggregation models
III.
Input-output system
IV.
Microeconomic or industry projections of employ
ment
A. Output per man-hour
B. Average annual hours
C. Employment
V. System balancing
A. Imports
B. Gross private domestic investment
C. Employment
This simplified view of the projection
system and chart A -l are meant as guides
to the following detailed discussion of pro
cedures.
Datailad description of methods
1A fuller discussion of the methods used in developing
labor force projections can be found in Denis Johnston,
"Population and Labor Force Projections,” Monthly Labor
Review, December 1973 pp. 8-17.
This section will discuss in detail each of
the separate elements necessary for the
124
Chart A-1
Diagram of Economic Growth Projection System
K
)
C
n
1
Capital
flow
matrix
requirements
by
producing
industry
■
1
' T
'
i
l
l
i
Income
determination
Thu row
m acroeconom etric
model
— ----------
Productivity
by
industry
---
Government
revenues
and
expenditures
—
Of
demand
> GNP |
Man-hours
by
industry
nu
P R O D U C T IO N , E M P L O Y M E N T , P R O D U C T IV IT Y ,
A N D M A N -H O U R S
PCE
- bridge matrix
'
HouthakkerTaylor
consumption
model
changes in hours paid and the estimates of
employment for each component of private
employment, the next step is to calculate
total private man-hours in 1980 and 1985.
This is accomplished by multiplying the
estimate of employment for each component
of private employment by the estimated
level of 1980 and 1985 average annual
hours paid in that sector.
The next step in the sequence for de
veloping supply GNP projections is to de
velop productivity projections for the target
years in each of the private sectors. Output
per man-hour is assumed to grow at the
historical rates of 2.7 percent a year for
the private nonfarm sector and at 5.5 per
cent a year for the farm sector.
Multiplying the resulting projections of
output per man-hour in each sector by the
corresponding proj ections of total man-hours
and summing these products yields the pro
jected level of real potential private gross
national product in the target years.
In the aggregate, the government prod
uct is assumed to equal the wage bill. Thus,
to develop projected values for government
product, the estimates of employment for
each subdivision of government are multi
plied by the 1968 average wage rate for
that subdivision, expressed in terms of 1963
prices. The resulting values, summed, rep
resent projected government product with
the assumption that no change in the mix
of government employment will take place
during the projection period.
Finally, an estimate of the contribution
of the rest of the world is made. This esti
mate, summed with the estimates of pri
vate GNP and government product, yields
the projected value of total potential gross
national product.
jected labor force and applying the rate of
unemployment to the remainder. This yields
a projection of employment on a count-ofpersons basis. It is necessary to convert this
to a count of jobs. This occurs because the
estimates of employment at the detailed
industry level used in later stages of the
projections are related to data series ob
tained from establishment payrolls, which
are counts of jobs, while the labor force
projection is based on household surveys,
which is a count of persons. The conversion
ratio, termed the adjustment factor, leading
to a jobs concept of employment adjusts not
only for those individuals who hold more
than one job, but also for other statistical
differences between the two employment
series. Generally speaking, this ratio is
inversely related to the unemployment rate.
However, relatively large random disturb
ances appear in this relationship, making
it difficult to make reasonable projections.
For this reason, the adjustment factor for
the target years is derived from representa
tive historical years. In the case of the
1980-85 projections, the period 1967-70 was
used as the base period for the determina
tion of this ratio. With this conversion, the
estimate of total employment is on a job
basis.
Next, total projected employment is di
vided into three major sectors: farm, private
nonfarm, and government. The private sec
tor is divided between farm and nonfarm
because of the disparity between rates of
growth of output per man-hour for these
two areas of the economy and the employ
ment shift from farm to nonfarm industries.
Separate estimates of government employ
ment are made because productivity change
of government employees is assumed to be
zero in the national income and product
accounts which form the data base for the
projections model. Government employment
projections are further subdivided into Fed
eral civilian, Federal military, and State and
local employment estimates.
Within the private sector of the economy
it is necessary to project rates of change
for average annual hours paid. The projec
tion of these items was based on 1950-68
trends in hours in the farm and private
nonfarm sectors. With the estimates of
Estimation and distribution of demand GNP
Once supply GNP has been determined, a
two-step procedure is followed to allocate
this by industry. First, the Thurow macroeconometric model allocates GNP by major
demand category. Next, each of these de
mand categories is in turn disaggregated to
the industry level of detail. In the next sec
tion the Thurow model is discussed, first,
as it exists, and subsequently as it was
126
individual sectors of the original model will
be given. These descriptions will feature
what could be called the key equation of
each sector, the endogenous variables de
termined in the sector, and the policy vari
ables which affect them.
modified for this set of projections. The most
important modification was the substitution
of the projections developed by the pro
cedure just discussed for the supply GNP
projections generated by the model. The
discussion of the Thurow macroeconometric
model will be followed by a discussion of
the procedures used for projecting the com
position of each of the demand categories.
Supply. The key equation of the supply block
is the production function which estimates
the level of private GNP which can be pro
duced given the labor* and capital resources
available to the private economy. Leading
up to this equation are the derivations of
the labor and capital inputs.
The labor input consists of average an
nual man-hours times the number of em
ployees. The basic exogenous estimates
which affect these are population projec
tions and an assumed unemployment rate.
Equations determine the labor force and
average annual hours; exogenous estimates
of Federal military and civilian employment
and an endogenous estimate of State and
local government employment are subtract
ed from total employment to obtain private
employment. Consistent with the national
income accounts definition of government
product, government employment is con
verted to compensation, which, added to
private GNP, yields a supply estimate of
total GNP. Fiscal policy enters the employ
ment determination through the levels of
Federal employment assumed and through
grants-in-aid to State and local government.
The level of grants-in-aid enters the State
and local employment equation.
The capital inputs to the production func
tion must be derived in the supply sector of
the model. The capital stock is built up
through the projections by adding to the
capital stock each year an estimate of new
capital derived from investment equations
for equipment and nonresidential structures.
The additions to capital stock from new
investment are adjusted for embodied tech
nological change, as are the estimated dis
cards which must be subtracted to derive
the new level of capital stock.
The calculation of capital inputs, as de
scribed, necessitates a set of equations with
in the supply side which determines invest
ment in equipment and nonresidential struc
tures. The investment equations are de
The Thurow macroeconometric model. Major
demand and income components of GNP
are projected using the macroeconometric
model developed by Lester Thurow. The
model’s development was financed by the
Interagency Growth Project. It is designed
for long-term projections of the national in
come accounts on an annual basis and is
formulated so as to facilitate policy analy
sis. The emphasis is on fiscal policy; the
only monetary policy variables included
are two interest rates. The original model
has been described in the Survey of Current
Business.2It consisted of about 30 equations
plus several identities, but more equations
have been added in the course of its further
development and use.
In its original version, the model con
tained 104 variables, 51 of which were ex
ogenous. The exogenous variables — those
which have to be supplied to the model —
included population, prices, exports, interest
rates, and various Federal policy variables
such as tax rates and transfer payments.
The Thurow model is divided into three
distinct sections: supply, income, and de
mand. Although distinct, the sectors are
not unrelated, since they interact with one
another. The supply and demand sides are
primarily in constant dollars, while the in
come side is primarily in current dollars. A
set of deflators is used to convert from sup
ply or demand to income and back. In the
original model these deflators were exoge
nously projected. However, the model has
been revised recently to include an en
dogenous wage-price sector. This new op
tion will be discussed below along with other
modifications. First, a brief description of the
2 Lester C. Thurow, " A Fiscal Policy Model of the
United States,” Survey o f Current Business, June 1969,
pp. 45-64.
127
pendent on a measure of corporate internal
funds and private GNP, among other varia
bles. The presence of private GNP intro
duces simultaneity within the supply sector
since private GNP is partially determined by
investment’s effect on the stock of capital.
The estimate of internal funds is based on
an estimate of the gross flow of corporate
funds less estimated Federal and State and
local corporate profit taxes.
The major policy variable affecting the
investment equations of the supply side is
the Federal corporate profits tax rate. No
explicit provision is made in the capital con
sumption allowances equation to incorpo
rate the effects of changes in allowable de
preciation methods, nor is an investment
tax credit policy built into the structure of
the model. Adjustment for the effects of
these fiscal policies must be made exoge
nously to the model’s results for the appro
priate equations. Provision is made in the
investment-related equations for the direct
effects of unemployment rates, in addition
to the indirect effects which come about
through the private GNP levels.
The income sector of the Thurow model
is oriented toward the determination of
personal income. Even though it is an identity, the personal income equation could
be considered the key equation of the in
come sector. The other equations in the
sector are for the estimation of the various
quantities which are used in deriving per
sonal income from supply GNP estimates.
The derivation requires estimates of the
following:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
policy variables will be discussed drawing
other information into the discussion as it
becomes useful. First, however, it should be
recalled that the income sector is in current
dollars. Therefore, inputs into the sector
which originate in the supply side must be
converted to current dollars using projected
price inflators. Most of the major estimates
of the supply sector, including GNP, cor
porate profits, and corporate internal funds
net of investment, are passed to the income
sector from supply.
Along with the indirect effects of policy
variables which affect the supply estimates
which are passed on to the income sector,
there are many policy variables which enter
directly. These include the following:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Changes in the Federal tax rate on gaso
line affect the estimate of Federal indirect
business taxes. An increase in this tax rate
would have the effect of lowering personal
income. The other factors determining in
direct business taxes are private GNP and
motor fuel consumption. Private GNP, of
course, is subject to the effects of any poli
cy which affects the supply sector, so that
indirect business taxes, both Federal and
State and local, are indirectly a function of
corporate profits tax rates, etc. This is true
of any equation affected by variables esti
mated in other sectors of the model. These
indirect effects, while important, will not be
pointed out wherever they occur in order to
keep the discussion manageable.
Several policy variables relate to social
insurance programs. In general, the con
tributions for these programs are endoge
nous, but the payments are projected exo
genously. Three policy controlled variables
are included in the OASDHI contribution
equation. These are the tax rate, the wage
base, and the coverage ratio. Together
Capital consumption allowances
Indirect business taxes
Subsidies less current surplus of government en
terprise
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjust
ments
Social insurance contributions
Transfer payments to persons
Interest payments of government and consumers
Net corporate dividend payments
In addition, estimates of personal taxes paid
to Federal and State and local government
facilitate the estimation of disposable per
sonal income.
Instead of explaining the individual equa
tions and the complex interactions involved
item by item, the effects of the various
Federal tax rate on gasoline
Employer-employee combined tax rate for old
age, survivors’, disability, and hospital insur
ance (O ASD H I)
Coverage ratio for OASDHI
Taxable wage base for OASDHI
Average employer contribution rate for unem
ployment insurance
Yield on 3-month government bills
Publicly held Federal debt
Federal tax rate on median family income
Employment rate
Transfer payments
128
they facilitate the simulation of the effects
of social security legislation such as the
social security amendments of 1972 on
contributions for social insurance. An in
crease in any of these three characteristics
of social security legislation will, other
things being equal, result in lower per
sonal income. The effects which such legis
lation has on social security benefits are
built into the exogenous payments projec
tion. Any increase in social security pay
ments will have the effect of increasing
personal income. Unemployment insurance
programs have similar effects in the model.
Tax rates for these Federal social in
surance programs are used in conjunction
with a tax base to determine contributions.
The tax bases used are based on compen
sation of employees less estimated employ
er contributions for social insurance. One
of the many simultaneities in the income
side comes about because the tax bases
for social security contributions depend on
personal income which is in turn a function
of these contributions. As a result, an in
crease in a social insurance tax rate will
not only have a direct effect on contribu
tions, but will also have secondary effects
which come about through changes in per
sonal income and the tax base. Another
interesting example of indirect policy ef
fects from the supply side occurs in the
equation for State and local social insur
ance contributions. The level of grants-inaid can affect the tax base variable through
its effect on State and local employment
which is included in the base.
The policy variables for yield on 3-month
government bills and the level of publicly
held Federal debt enter into the determina
tion of Federal interest payments. The di
rect consequences of an increase in either
of these will be an increase in personal
income.
The assumptions of an employment rate
and the tax rate on median family income
relate to the derivation of disposable per
sonal income. In particular, they help deter
mine Federal personal taxes. Median family
income is determined by an equation which
includes the employment rate as an inde
pendent variable. The level of median family
income is used to select the appropriate
tax rate to use in the Federal personal tax
equations.
The level of transfer payments enters
directly into the personal income identity.
It is projected exogenously. An increase in
transfer payments, of course, increases per
sonal income. Secondary effects occur
through the influence of personal income
on other sectors of the model.
Demand. The key result of the demand sec
tor is the estimation of demand GNP. The
GNP equation is an identity which sums
personal consumption, gross private domes
tic investment, net exports, and govern
ment purchases. Some of the components of
demand GNP are estimated directly in the
sectors of the model. In particular, as dis
cussed above, investment in producers’ dur
able equipment, investment in nonresidential structures, and compensation of gov
ernment employees are taken from the
supply sector. The other components are
estimated in the demand sector or are
exogenous.
Disposable personal income is one of the
most important determinants of the equa
tions in the demand sector. It enters into
the estimates of personal consumption ex
penditures, residential investment, and im
ports. Therefore, any policy changes which
affect disposable personal income will indi
rectly affect the level and composition of
demand GNP.
Although all policy variables affect de
mand GNP indirectly, a few have more
direct effects which have already been dis
cussed. One of these is grants-in-aid to
State and local government which affect
the estimate of State and local govern
ment purchases other than employee com
pensation. The equation for estimating resi
dential investment is sensitive to the
monetary policy variable — yield on 3- to
5-year taxable government issues. Two exo
genous policy-related variables enter direct
ly into the demand GNP identity. These
are exports and Federal Government non
compensation purchases. The latter play a
special role in the solution of the model
which will be discussed below.
129
Supply-demand gap and model balancing.
In summary, the essential flow of the Thurow model is as follows: The economy’s
projected labor and capital resources gener
ate an estimate of supply or potential GNP;
this in turn provides the basis for estimat
ing the income generated by the production
of this output and these incomes enter into
the projections of demand GNP. This sim
plified flow of the model ignores the many
interactions and simultaneities of the mo
del, some of which were mentioned above.
In the model there is no guarantee that
the demand generated by the production of
potential GNP will result in an equilibrium
situation in the sense that the demand
GNP equals the supply GNP. In general,
it will not. The resulting difference between
the two measures of GNP is referred to as
the supply-demand gap. In the absence of
corrective policy actions, a positive gap,
that is, a residual for supply GNP less de
mand GNP, would imply that the assumed
employment level could not be sustained.
Within the model, the gap may be han
dled in two ways. One is to let Federal pur
chases, other than compensation, be deter
mined as a residual, thus assuming that
any excess supply is taken up by Federal
Government purchases. The alternative
treatment is to estimate Federal purchases
exogenously and explicitly derive the
supply-demand gap. The gap is then elimi
nated by changing the assumptions about
various Federal policy variables in order to
stimulate or stem demand, as the case
requires. The result is a balanced projec
tion, one in which outputs, income, govern
ment policy, and demand are consistent
with one another.
the model basically. Since then, some of
the equations have been modified by either
BEA or BLS. These changes are discussed
below.
The most significant change in the Thu
row model was the addition of the endoge
nous wage-price sector. The significance of
this change is that it is no longer necessary
to estimate the level of deflators outside
of the model. In addition, the old equation
for compensation of employees has been
replaced by a compensation per man-hour
equation which interacts with price levels.
Wages and prices are determined together
in the new sector. The basic behavioral
equations of the new sector are for com
pensation per man-hour, the private GNP
deflator, and the personal consumption ex
penditure deflator. The other deflators are
derived from the private GNP deflator esti
mates. The new sector and its development
are discussed in an article in the Survey of
Current Business.3
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has re
vised the State and local government equa
tion in the model to show separate projec
tions for educational and "other” purchases.
Separate employment projections for these
two categories allow the difference between
compensation per employee in education
and that of other employees to be included
in the compensation estimates. In addition,
enrollment changes can be prevented from
affecting noneducational purchases and em
ployment. In the old version, enrollment af
fected both educational and other State
and local activity.
The equation for State and local indirect
business taxes was reestimated to include
the percent of population enrolled in school.
In the long run, it is reasonable to include
such a variable as a measure of tax needs,
especially since local education tends to be
financed through property taxation, which
makes up a large share of indirect business
taxes.
Recent improvements in the Thurow model.
Since the original description of the Thurow
model was published in 1969, there have
been many changes and revisions. These
changes are continuing, making the model
a more reliable tool for projections. In early
1971, the equations of the model were
entirely reestimated by Richard Barth of
the Office of Business Economics (now the
Bureau of Economic Analysis) of the U. S.
Department of Commerce, using an updated
data base. The reestimation did not change
Modifications in actual use. A considerable
amount of flexibility is built into the Thurow
model which allows part of the model to be
overridden in actual use. This may be de3
Richard C. Barth, "T h e Development of Wage and
Price Relationships for a Long-Term Econometric Model,”
Survey of Current Business, August 1972, pp. 15-20.
130
above, the supply estimate of GNP and the
demand estimate of GNP are not generally
equal. When such a gap exists, it can be
closed by modifying various policy varia
bles. In practice, it is only closed to within
a small margin of error, since additional
accuracy is not worth the cost of rerunning
the model. For example, in the aggregate
projections for 1985, a residual gap equal
to 0.8 percent of GNP remains after the fi
nal run of the Thurow model. Such residual
gaps are usually allocated among the de
mand components of GNP on the basis of
judgment, comparison with other projec
tions, and knowledge of past equation per
formance.
The only other aspect of the Thurow mo
del which was overridden was the equation
for the private GNP deflator. There were
two reasons for overriding this equation.
The first is that the endogenous price sec
tor is new and relatively untested in fore
casting. The second is that, being new, the
wage-price sector was added to the model
after the projections had been started. Par
tially overriding the new sector with the pre
vious exogenous projection of the private
GNP deflator preserved the continuity of
the projection process to a large extent. At
the same time, the new wage-price sector
was allowed to generate the other demand
component deflators consistent with the
exogenous private GNP deflator.
sirable for a number of reasons. In some
cases, certain parts of the model perform
poorly in projections and are, therefore,
replaced by more reliable estimates. Even
more important is the capability the model
provides to simulate the effects of changes
in the structure of certain parts of the
economy which cannot be simulated direct
ly by the model. Similarly, this flexibility
facilitates comparisons with projections or
assumptions from other sources. The follow
ing discussion summarizes the modification
made in the development of the current
projections.
The most significant modification of the
model in use was in the supply sector. In
stead of allowing the model’s equations to
predict labor force and supply GNP, these
were projected independently and supplied
exogenously to the model. There were two
primary reasons for this. The first relates
to the upward bias of the production func
tion as discussed above. The second was
the convenience of having labor force pro
jections which are consistent with those
projected by the Division of Labor Force
Studies, BLS. The only other modification
to the supply side was a constant adjust
ment to the Federal corporate income tax
equation to reflect the estimated effects of
the Tax Reform Act of 1969, some provi
sions of which could not be incorporated
directly as policy variables.
In the income sector, a similar adjust
ment for the Tax Reform Act of 1969 was
made to the Federal personal income tax
projection. State and local personal taxes
were also adjusted but only in order to
balance State and local revenue and expen
diture. It was felt that the personal tax
equation was overpredicting revenue. Rising
expenditure requirements have been im
portant factors in State and local personal
tax growth but they are not reflected in
the Thurow equation. Therefore, without
adjustment, they tend to be projected to
keep growing rapidly, in spite of the less
rapid projected growth of expenditures,
thus generating unrealistically large
surpluses.
The only adjustment to the results of the
model on the demand side relates to clos
ing the supply-demand gap. As discussed
Demand disaggregation models. After a
balanced set of income and demand GNP
projections has been completed, the pro
jection sequence turns to a detailed dis
tribution of the various demand GNP cate
gories. The distribution of demand by
producing industry is completed in the in
dustry detail of the input-output table, the
use of which is described in a subsequent
section.
Personal consumption expenditures. The al
location of personal consumption expendi
tures among the various producing indus
tries is accomplished in two steps, each
including several processes. Total personal
consumption is determined for the projection
years by the Thurow macroeconometric mo
del. This value is used as a control and all
disaggregated projections are adjusted to
131
this figure. The first step of the procedure
is to project personal consumption by major
types of expenditures such as food, hous
ing, medical expenses, automobiles, taxi
fares, etc. These projections are adjusted
to sum to the previously projected gross
level of PCE. The second step is to deter
mine what proportion each industry must
produce in order to generate that expendi
ture distribution. The result of this twostep process is a personal consumption
expenditures "bill of goods” which forms
one component of total final demand.
Given the projected level of total per
sonal consumption, it is first necessary to
determine how the consumer will allocate
his available funds in the projection period.
For this purpose, H. S. Houthakker and
Lester Taylor developed for the BLS a set
of 82 demand-oriented consumption func
tions. These functions correspond to the
personal consumption classification in the
national income accounting system, which
groups similar or related consumer pro
ducts into a single item. (See table A -l.)
These equations were estimated with
constant-dollar consumption data between
1919 and 1964, excluding war years. In this
formulation, total PCE is treated as a proxy
for disposable income, and is by far the
most important of the explanatory varia
bles. Annual change in total PCE also has
a high level of explanatory power in these
equations. Relative prices are incorporated
in about one-half of the equations and, in
addition, one or two other variables ap
pear in selected equations.
The demand function implicit in most of
these equations is dynamic in the sense that
it allows the effect of a change in an ex
planatory variable to be distributed over
time. Thus, a change in income may have
a more immediate effect on the expendi
ture for some items and a lagged or gradu
al effect on other items. In general, a
change in income has an initial strong in
fluence on durable goods while services
respond more slowly to the level of income.
In reviewing the initial projections de
rived by the Houthakker-Taylor model, it
was felt that, in several of the categories,
the experiences of the late 1960’ s and ear
ly 1970’ s were not adequately represented.
The best solution to this problem would
be to fully reestimate the model incor
porating post-1964 data. This was, how
ever, impossible due to the lack of time.
Several of those equations which were felt
to be the most distorted were reestimated
through 1970. For the most part, the reestimated equations yielded what seem to
be more reasonable projections. A few of
the equations were replaced with judgments
on expected trends in those particular
areas.
Finally, the sum of the projected levels
of the individual items is brought into bal
ance with the projected level of total per
sonal consumption expenditures by prorat
ing any difference according to the income
elasticities of the individual equations.
The Houthakker-Taylor model was esti
mated with data ending in 1964. Simula
tions using this set of equations for the
period 1965-70 generated errors in each
of the estimators. For those equations
where the error was large and where the
estimates were not modified by other
means, this error or bias was projected to
the target years and used to adjust the
projected levels of personal consumption.
To this point a set of personal consump
tion expenditures in terms of the national
income and product accounts has been pro
jected. The second step in the procedure
is to transform these projection into a set
of final demands consistent with the inputoutput framework. The primary operation
is the use of a matrix to transform or
"bridge” the product projections into the
134 producing industries as defined by the
input-output sectoring plan used by the
Division of Economic Growth. (See table
A-2.) A product as defined in the national
income accounts may be an aggregate of
many different types of goods. Several dif
ferent industries may produce the goods
included in a single product classification.
For example, consumer demand for the
product "shoes and other footwear” is dis
tributed among final demands from the
leather products industry, the rubber pro
ducts industry, and imported footwear. The
extreme case is consumer demand for the
product class "other durable house furnish
ings” which is distributed among 27 input132
Table A-l.
Classification system for personal consumption expenditures by type of product
N um ber and product
Num ber and product
I.
V II. P e rson a l business
Food and tobacco
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1.
2.
3.
Food purchased for off-prem ise consum ption (n .d .c .)
Purchased meals and beverages (n .d .c .)
Food furnished government (including m ilitary) and com m ercial
employees (n .d .c .)
Food produced and consumed on farm s (n .d .c .)
Tobacco products (n .d .c .)
4.
5.
6.
7.
li. Clothing, accessories, and jewelry
1.
2.
3.
Shoes and other footw ear (n .d .c .)
V III.
Shoe cleaning and r e p a ir s .)
Clothing and accessories except footw ear
a. W om en’s and ch ild ren ’s (n .d .c .)
b. M en’s and boys’ (n .d .c .)
4. Standard clothing issued to m ilitary personnel (n .d .c .)
5. Cleaning, dyeing, pressing, alteratio n , storage, and repair of ga r
ments including furs (in shops) not elsewhere classified (s .)
6. Laundering in establishm ents (s .)
7.
8.
T ra n s p o rta tio n
User-operated transportatio n
a. New cars and net purchases of used cars (d .c .)
b. Tires, tubes, accessories, and parts (d .c .)
c. Autom obile repair, greasing, washing, parking, storage, and
rental (s .)
d. Gasoline and oil (n .d .c .)
e. Bridge, tunnel, ferry, and road tolls (s.)
f. Autom obile insurance prem ium s less claims paid (s.)
2.
Purchased local transportatio n
a. Street and electric railway and local bus (s .)
b. Taxicab (s.)
c. Railway (c o m m u ta tio n ) (s.)
3.
Jewelry and watches (d .c .)
Other (s.)
1.
Purchased in tercity transportatio n
a. Railway (excluding c o m m u ta tio n ) (s .)
b. Inte rcity bus (s .)
c. Airline (s .)
d. Other (s .)
III. Personal care
1.
2.
To ilet articles and preparations (n .d .c .)
Barbershops, beauty parlors, and baths (s.)
IV. Housing
1.
2.
3.
4.
Owner-occupied nonfarm dwellings— space-rental value (s .)
Tenant-occupied nonfarm dwellings (including lodging houses)—
space rent (s.)
IX.
Rental value of farm houses (s.)
Other (s.)
V. Household operation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Brokerage charges and investm ent counseling (s.)
Bank service charges, tru st servicesand safe-deposit box rental (s .)
Services furnished w ithout payment by financial interm ediaries
except insurance com panies (s .)
Expense of handling life insurance (s .)
Legal services (s.)
Funeral and burial expenses (s .)
O ther (s.)
Furniture, including m attresses and bedsprings (d .c .)
Kitchen and other household appliances (d .c .)
China, glassware, tablew are, and utensils (d .c .)
Other durable house furnishings (d .c .)
Sem idurable house furnishings (n .d .c .)
Cleaning and polishing preparations, and m iscellaneous household
supplies and paper products (n .d .c .)
S tationery and w riting supplies (n .d .c .)
Household utilities
a. Electricity (s .)
b. Gas (s .)
c. W ater and other sanitary services (s.)
d. Other fuel and ice (n .d .c .)
Telephone and telegraph (s .)
Dom estic service (s .)
Other (s.)
R e c re a tio n
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Books and maps (d .c .)
Magazines, newspapers, and sheet music (n .d .c .)
Nondurable toys and sport supplies (n .d .c .)
Wheel goods, durable toys, sport equipm ent, boats, and pleasure
airc raft (d .c .)
Radio and television receivers, records, and musical instrum ents
(d .c .)
Radio and television repair (s .)
Flowers, seeds, and potted plants (n .d .c .)
Admissions to specified spectator am usem ents
a. M otion picture theaters (s .)
b. Legitim ate theaters and opera, and en tertain m en t of non
p rofit institutions(e x c e p t a th le tic s ) ( s .)
c. S pectator sports (s .)
Clubs and frate rn al organizations except insurance (s .)
Com m ercial participant am usem ents (s .)
Pari-m utuel net receipts (s .)
Other (s.)
X . P riva te e d u c a tio n an d research
V I.
Medical care expenses
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
1.
2.
3.
Drug preparations and sundries (n .d .c .)
O phthalm ic products and orthopedic appliances (d .c .)
Physicians (s .)
Dentists (s .)
Other professional services (s .)
Privately controlled hospitals and sanitarium s (s .)
Health insurance
a. Medical care and hospitalization (s.)
b. Incom e loss (s.)
Higher education (s .)
Elem entary and secondary schools (s .)
O ther (s.)
See footnotes at end of table.
133
Table A-l.
Classification system for personal consumption expenditures by type of product—Continued
Num ber and product
Num ber and product
XI.
X II.
Religious and w elfare activities (s .)
Foreign travel and other, net
1.
2.
3.
4.
SOURCE:
U.S. D ep a rtm en t of Com m erce, Bureau of Econom ic Analysis.
NOTE: Consumer durable com m odities are designated (d .c .), nondurable
co m m odities, (n .d .c ,), and services (s .) following group title s.
ment demand, four separate categories are
considered: (1) residential construction, (2)
nonresidential construction, (3) investment
in producers’ durable equipment, and (4)
change in business inventories. Projected
control totals for each of these categories
are derived from the Thurow macroeconometric model. The next step of the
projection procedure is to allocate each of
these investment categories to the particu
lar producing industries.
In the case of residential construction,
the allocation consists of estimating bro
kers’ commissions on sales of structures
and the value of net purchases of used
structures from the public sector. These
estimates are made by examining the his
torical relationships between these two
items and private new residential building
construction. Commissions are allocated to
Economic Growth industry 109, "Other real
estate,” and net purchases of used struc
tures are allocated to Economic Growth
industry 130, the "Scrap (used and secondhand)” industry. The remainder, after de
ducting the amounts allocated to EG indus
tries 109 and 130 is the demand for the
output of EG industry 12, "New residen
tial building construction.”
Unlike residential construction, business
investment in structures must be allocated
to three producing industries in addition to
EG industries 109 and 130. These are
EG industry 13, "New nonresidential build
ing construction,” EG industry 14, "New
public utilities construction,” and EG indus
try 16, "All other new construction.” Esti
mates for these sectors are obtained by
examining historical data on detailed types
of nonresidential construction. Althoqgh no
formal model is employed at this level of
detail, the demand for these types of struc
tures can be identified by user or function
output sectors covering a wide range of
manufacturing industries. Moreover, per
sonal consumption expenditures by national
income categories, both historical and pro
jected, are expressed in terms of purchas
ers’ value. That is, they reflect not only the
value received by the producing industry,
but also costs of transportation and distri
bution associated with bringing the product
from its point of production into the hands
of the ultimate consumer. These costs or
margins include the value added to the pro
duct by the insurance industry, the retail
and wholesale trade industries, and any or
all of the transportation industries. The
purpose of the bridge matrix is twofold—
first, to allocate each product class expendi
ture among the various producing indus
tries involved, and second, to remove the
margin costs from the producing industries
and reallocate them to the insurance,
trade, and transportation industries. The
bridge matrix used to allocate projected
personal consumption expenditures is
based on the 1963 table developed by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department
of Commerce, and an estimated bridge ma
trix for 1970 developed by the Division of
Economic
Growth.
Where important
changes had taken place between 1963
and 1970 in the distribution, and it was felt
these changes would continue, they were
projected to 1980 and 1985.
Standard programs have been devised
to derive the personal consumption expendi
tures bill of goods in a continuous sequence.
However, the results are subj ect to review
at each stage of the sequence and modifica
tions are made to the system as additional
structural information becomes available.
Gross private domestic investment. In pro
jecting the industrial composition of invest
Foreign travel by United States residents (s .)
Expendituresabroad by United States Government personnel ( m ili
tary and civilian) (n .d .c .)
Less: expenditures in the United States by foreigners-(s.)
Less: personal rem ittances in kind to foreigners (n .d .c .)
134
Table A-2. Interindustry model sectoring plan for 1980 and 1985 projections
E c o n o m ic G ro w th in d u s try
num ber
S IC co de 1
E c o n o m ic G ro w th in d u s try n u m b e r
an d title
A G R IC U L T U R E , F O R E S T R Y , A N D F IS H E R IE S
1
2
3
4
Livestock and livestock products
Crops and other ag ricultural products
Forestry and fisheries
Agriculture, forestry, and fishery services
01
0 7 4 ,0 8 , and 091
0 7 1 ,0 7 2 3 , pt. 0729, 07 3 ,
0 8 5 , and 098
M IN IN G
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Iron ore mining
Copper ore m ining
Other nonferrous m etal ore mining
Coal mining
Crude petroleum
S to n e an d clay mining and quarrying
Chem ical and fe rtilize r mining
101,106
102
103-109, except 106
1 1 ,1 2
1 3 1 1 ,1 3 2 1 ,1 3 8
1 4 1 -1 4 5 ,1 4 8 , and 149
147
New residential buildings
j
New nonresidential buildings /
New public utilities
l
New streets and highways f
All other new construction V
M aintenance and repair
J
67
68
69
70
71
72
1 5 ,1 6 , and 17
M A N U FA C T U R IN G
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
1925
19 except 1925
20
21
2 2 1 ,2 2 2 , 2 2 3 ,2 2 4 ,2 2 6 ,
and 228
227 and 229
Miscellaneous textiles and flo o r coverings
225
Hosiery and knit goods
23 except 239, 3992
Apparel
239
Miscellaneous fab ricated textile products
241 and 242
Logging, sawm ills, and planing mills
M illw ork, plywood, and other wood products 243, 24 4, and 249
251
Household furniture
25 except 251
Other furniture
26 except 265
Paper products
Paperboard
265
2 7 1 ,2 7 2 , 273, and 274
Publishing
275, 27 6, 277, 278, and
Printing
279
28 1 , 286, and 289, except
Chem ical products
28 195
287
Agricultural chem icals
2 8 2 1 ,2 8 2 2
Plastic m aterials and synthetic rubber
28 23 , 2824
Synthetic fibers
283
Drugs
284
Cleaning and to ile t preparations
285
Paint
29
Petroleum products
30 except 307
Rubber products
307
Plastic products
Leather, fo o tw e a r , an d lea th er p ro d u c ts
31
321, 322, and 323
Glass
Cem ent, c la y, an d co n c re te p ro d u c ts
324, 325, and 327
Miscellaneous stone and clay products
326, 328, and 329
Blast furnaces and basic steel products
331
332, 3391, and 3399
Iron and steel foundries and forgings
Primary copper m etals
3331
Primary alum inum
3334 and 28 195
Guided missiles and space vehicles
Other ordnance
Food products
Tobacco m anufacturing
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
C O N S T R U C T IO N
12
13
14
15
16
17
S IC C o d e 1
and title
135
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
O ther primary and secondary nonferrous m etal3 3 32 , 33 33 , 3 3 3 9 , and 334
Copper rolling and drawing
3351
3352
Alum inum rolling and drawing
Other nonferrous rolling and drawing
33 56 and 3357
Miscellaneous nonferrous m etal products
336 and 3 3 92
M etal containers
341 and 3491
Heating apparatus and plum bing fixtures
343
344
Fabricated structural m etal
Screw m achine products
345 and 346
Other fab ricated m etal products
34 2, 34 7, 34 8, and 349
except 3491
Engines, turbines, and generators
351
Farm machinery
352
C onstruction, m ining, and oilfield m achinery 35 31 , 35 32 , and 3533
M aterial handling equipm ent
35 34 , 3535, 35 36 , and
3537
M etalw orking m achinery
354
Special industry m achinery
355
General industrial m achinery
356
Machine shop products
359
Computers and peripheral equipm ent
35 73 , 3574
Typewriters and other offic e m achines
35 7, except 3573 and
3574
Service industry machines
358
Electric transm ission eq uipm ent
361
Electrical industrial apparatus
362
Household appliances
363
Electric lighting and wiring
364
Radio and television sets
365
Telephone and telegraph apparatus
3661
Other electronic co m m unication equipm ent 3662
367
Electronic com ponents
O ther electrical m achinery
369
M o to r vehicles
371
A ircraft
372
Ship and boat building and repair
373
Railroad and other trans portatio n equipm ent 374 and 375
Miscellaneous transportatio n equipm ent
379
Scientific and co ntrolling instrum ents
3 7 1 ,3 8 2 , and 387
Medical and dental instrum ents
384
Optical and ophthalm ic equipm ent
383 and 385
Photographic eq uipm ent and supplies
386
Miscellaneous m anufactured products
39, except 3992
T R A N S P O R T A T IO N
93
94
95
96
97
98
Railroad transportatio n
Local transit and intercity bus
Truck transportation
W ater transportatio n
Air transportation
O th e rtran s p o rtatio n
40 and 474
41
42 and 473
44
45
4 6 ,4 7 e x c e p t4 7 3 a n d 4 7 4
C O M M U N IC A T IO N A N D P U B L IC U T IL IT IE S
99
100
101
102
103
Com m unications, except radio and TV
Radio and TV broadcasting
Electric utilities
Gas utilities
W ater and sanitary services
See footnotes at end of tab le.
48 except 4 8 3
48 3
491 and part 493
49 2 and part 493
4 9 4 ,4 9 5 ,4 9 6 , 49 7, and
part 493
Table fl-2. Interindustry model sectoring plan for 1980 and 1985 projections—Continued
E c o n o m ic G ro w th in d u s try n u m b e r
S IC C o d e
E c o n o m ic G ro w th in d u s try n u m b e r
1
and title
W H O L E S A L E A N D R E T A IL T R A D E
104 W holesale trade
105 Retail trade
G O V E R N M E N T E N T E R P R IS E S
50
52, 5 3 , 5 4 ,5 5 ,5 6 ,5 7 ,5 8 ,
and 59
F IN A N C E , IN S U R A N C E , A N D R EA L E S T A T E
106
107
108
109
S IC c o d e 1
and title
Finance
Insurance
O wner-occupied dwellings
Other real estate
122
123
124
125
Post O ffice
Com m odity Credit Corporation
Other Federal enterprises
S tate and local governm ent enterprises
(2 )
(2 )
(2 )
(2 )
IM P O R T S
60, 61, 62, and 67
63 and 64
(2 )
65 and 66
126 D irectly allocated im ports
127 Transferred im ports
(2 )
(2 )
D U M M Y IN D U S T R IE S
S E R V IC E S
110
111
112
113
114
Hotels and lodging places
O ther personal services
Miscellaneous business services
Advertising
Miscellaneous professional services
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
Autom obile repair
M o tion pictures
O ther am usem ents
Health services except hospitals
Hospitals
Educational services
N onprofit organizations
70
72 and 76
73 except 731
731
81 and 89 except 89 2,
nonp ro fit research
75
78
79
80 except 806, 0 7 22
806
82
84, 86, and 892
1 S ta n d a rd In d u s tria l C la s s ific a tio n M a n u a l,
1967 edition (Bureau of
128 Business travel, en tertain m en t, and gifts
129 O ffice supplies
130 Scrap, used and secondhand goods
(2 )
(2 )
(2 )
S P E C IA L IN D U S T R IE S
131
132
133
134
Government industry
Rest of th e world industry
Households
Inventory valuation ad justm ent
(2 )
(2 )
(2 )
(2 )
2 No com parable industry,
th e B u d g e t, n ow O ffic e o f M a n a g e m e n t an d B u d g e t).
in most cases. Initial projections are made
for the detailed types of construction using
historical trends and the relationship of
each type to the rate of growth of private
GNP. These estimates are then reconciled
with total nonresidential construction less
commissions and net purchases of used
structures. As the projections process pro
ceeds, these estimates are reevaluated with
respect to the growth in industry require
ments and modified where necessary.
Investment in equipment, like invest
ment in plant construction, is related to the
output of the industries producing goods and
services for sale to other industries and to
final demand, but here the origin of the de
mand is not as clearly identified. Most
industries require a wide variety of invest
ment goods. On the other hand, industries
producing investment goods sell equipment
to a variety of users. As a result, compar
ing the types of investment goods required
with the initial estimates of equipment types
produced is a more involved process than
in the case of nonresidential construction.
Initially, producers’ durable equipment
is allocated to producing industries based
on historical trends and the relationship
between types of producers’ durable equip
ment and the growrth in private GNP. These
estimates, along with industry estimates
for all other components of demand GNP,
are used to generate preliminary estimates
of output by industry. At this point in the
projection sequence, there is no assurance
that the initial estimates of types of equip
ment produced are consistent with the
types of investment goods ^required by the
generated outputs. However, little informa
tion beyond the extension of past trends is
possible at this point in the calculations
and only a modest effort is expended be
cause of a later sequence which balances
the demand for producers’ durable equip
ment with industry capital requirements.
Projections of net inventory change by
producing industry are based primarily on
industry distribution of these changes for
the most recent historical year. The initial
projections may be modified as necessary
136
at later stages in the projection process.
Less effort is expended on the allocation of
net inventory change to the producing in
dustries because this item is relatively un
important when compared with the other
categories of investment expenditure.
Federal Government expenditures. The Fed
eral Government bill of goods is prepared
by breaking the Federal government ac
count into two broad groups, defense and
nondefense. Within defense, expenditures
are further broken between the Department
of Defense (DOD) and the Atomic Energy
Commission (AEC). Based on the assumed
level of military employment in the projec
tion years, estimates are first made for
compensation and expenditures on major
consumables affected directly by the level
of military employment (expenditures on
food, uniforms, etc.). The remainder of the
defense expenditures are distributed accord
ing to assumptions concerning future devel
opments in the major weapons systems of
the United States.
The nondefense group is broken between
the National Aeronautics and Space Admin
istration (NASA) and all other nondefense
installations. NASA expenditures are dis
tributed on the basis of past trends as well
as future expectations, not only for the level
of space exploration expenditures but also
for the direction this activity is expected
to take (lunar exploration vs. orbital
laboratories, for example-)
Federal nondefense expenditures were
broken into compensation (from the supply
GNP projection model), construction expen
ditures (based on historical trends), and
expenditures on goods and services (resid
ual). The last item was distributed by in
dustry according to historical trends, modi
fied to some extent by projected shifts in
the distribution of nondefense expenditures
such as the shift toward computers.
pensation of State and local employees in
each of these two categories.
Independently of these estimates, the
State and local purchases submodel, cur
rently under development, derives projec
tions of State and local purchases and em
ployment by eight major end-use catego
ries.4 These categories are: education; high
ways; health and and hospitals; natural
resources; parks and recreation; sanitation;
government enterprises; and all other. With
in each of these categories, with the excep
tion of government enterprises, the projec
tions were further broken between struc
tures, compensation, and all other expendi
tures. The breakdown of government enter
prise expenditures was limited to structures
and other capital outlays.5 Any differences
between this set of projections and those
developed by the Thurow model were then
reconciled to insure consistency between
the two models.
In addition to the State and local govern
ment expenditures submodel, projections of
these same variables were made by tradi
tional methods, that is, extrapolation of
historical trends with attention to antici
pated changes in the functional mix of
State and local government expenditures.
The most notable areas where these pro
jections differed from those developed by
the State and local submodel were educa
tion, highway construction, and health and
hospitals. The reason for these differences
was the expectation of major changes in
expenditure patterns at the policy level of
State and local government.
At this point the projections were allo
cated to producing industries in order to
form the State and local government bill of
goods. Expenditures on structures as well
as compensation of State and local govern
ment employees involved in construction
work (force account) were added to the six
construction industries. Highway construc
tion was allocated to Economic Growth
State and local government expenditures.
That portion of real demand GNP accounted
for by State and local government expendi
tures is projected in the aggregate by the
Thurow econometric model. The Thurow
model develops estimates for both educa
tional and other purchases, and for com
4 This State and local model is currently under devel
opment in the Division of Economic Growth, Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
5 Government enterprise purchases are included in
government demand only to the extent that they are
capital purchases. Other purchases, including compensa
tion of employees, are treated as private sector activities.
137
industry 12, "New highway construction.”
The construction component of the remain
ing categories of State and local govern
ment expenditures was allocated to the
remaining construction industries on the
basis of recent historical trends and anti
cipated shifts in construction priorities. All
compensation (with the exception of the
construction force account described above)
was allocated to industry 131, general gov
ernment. These levels of compensation (ex
pressed in constant dollars) translate di
rectly into the number of State and local
jobs in total and by major function; these
levels of jobs, of course, are consistent with
the State and local share of total employ
ment previously projected in the supply
GNP derivation. In the same manner, the
total levels of State and local compensation
comprise — and are consistent with — the
State and local contribution to GNP.
All other State and local expenditures
were split among all the industries on the
basis of past trends and anticipated future
changes in expenditure patterns.
Net foreign demand. Exports and imports
are handled separately at their aggregate
or total levels in the input-output system
and are netted only at a final state in or
der to present a conceptually correct level
of GNP. Exports are treated as any other
component of final demand in the inputoutput system; imports, on the other hand,
require a unique treatment. It should be
noted that, although in concept the macro
model develops projections of exports and
imports, these are essentially exogenous.
Two steps are followed in the develop
ment of the projected export bills of goods.
First, data series are developed for mer
chandise exports and for various categories
of services as presented in the U. S. bal
ance of payment accounts. These series are
then utilized in the projection of aggregate
exports. Where possible, the time series are
subdivided according to world area and projected separately for each — although at
the present time only a limited amount of
this is done. In some cases, it is neces
sary to rely on naive forecasting techniques
because of the lack of foreign income and
price data.
After aggregate export projections are
developed, they are disaggregated into de
mands for the output of each of the indus
tries of the input-output table. This is ac
complished by analyzing the industry com
position of each of the balance of payments
categories historically and projecting the
industry distributions for these categories
to 1980 and 1985.
Imports into the United States are
grouped into two categories in the inputoutput system. First, imports of interme
diate products that have close domestic
substitutes are shown as being bought by
(or, in input-output terms, transferred to)
the industries producing these substitutes,
and the domestic industries are, in turn,
shown as reselling these imports to the
actual user industries.6 Thus, imports of
steel are treated as a transfer to either the
blast furnaces and basic steel products
industry or the iron and steel foundries,
forging and miscellaneous products indus
try, that is, those industries which produce
the domestic counterpart of the imported
steel.
Second, imports of intermediate products
that have no domestic substitutes, in the
sense that they cannot be replaced by
domestic items in existing production pro
cesses without altering the nature of the
product,7 and all imports that go into final
use without further processing are directly
allocated to the user industry or category
of final demand. Thus, coffee, which is not
produced in the United States, is directly
allocated to the food products industry
where it is ground, blended, and packaged
before being sold to the consuming sector.
Also, imported automobiles, not subject to
any further steps in the production process,
are directly allocated to the personal con6Ones the imported product has been resold to the
user industry, no further distinction is made with regard
to its source (i.e. foreign or domestic).
7It is realized that this criterion is, at best, an im
perfect guide and that the resulting classifications are at
times somewhat arbitrary. For further detail on this topic,
seeM .A . Sayre,"Treatm ent of Foreign Transactions in the
1958 Industry Relations Study,” unpublished memoran
dum #BE-51, August 2, 1965, National Economics Divi
sion, Bureau of Economic Analysis (formerly Office of
Business Economics), U.S. Department of Commerce.
138
sumption expenditures category of final
demand.
Once the intermediate imports are
assigned to their appropriate classification,
they are transformed into coefficients. The
coefficients are then projected in much the
same way as domestic coefficients in the
input-output table, described in the next
section. Finally, the resulting projections
of intermediate imports are evaluated in
the light of implied growth rates, and sup
ply requirements and final demand are
explicitly projected as a portion of each
category of final demand, and thus the
technique for projecting them coincides with
the method used for that final demand
category. In the input-output table, there
is an entry at the intersection of each of
the two import rows with the net export
column. In these entries total imports ap
pear as a negative amount, thus yielding
net exports when the export column is
summed. This procedure is followed to yield
a conceptually correct level of GNP when
final demand categories are aggregated.
cell to the total column sum, becomes a
"direct coefficients” matrix. If the demand
for an industry’s product, for example, auto
mobiles, increases or decreases by a cer
tain amount, the direct coefficients of that
industry will indicate the proportionate ef
fects on other industries such as steel,
aluminum, trade, and transportation in
dustries.
Each of the industries directly affected
by a change in demand for automobiles
has its own supplying industries. The steel
and the coal and iron ore industries, in
turn, need other items such as fuel to run
the mining machinery and repair parts for
equipment. By linking all the input-output
coefficients together in a consistent and
integrated set of relationships, it is possi
ble to trace the effect of a particular de
mand, for example, that for automobiles,
on each industry back along the production
process. These effects include all the raw
materials, parts, components, fuels, trans
portation, and distributive services which
are ultimately included in making the final
product, the automobile.
The complex relationships among indus
tries are encompassed in the coefficients of
the total (direct and indirect) requirements
matrix, also called an inverse matrix. An
inverse matrix (such as table 3 of the
1963 input-output study) provides the basic
framework used to explore potential effects
on the industrial composition of employ
ment in 1980 and 1985 which may result
from assumptions with respect to the pro
jected level of final demand.
Thus, through the use of an input-output
system, projections of the demand of final
users such as consumers or government
can be translated into the total output
requirements from all industries.
The input-output system
After final demand is projected, the out
put in each industry necessary to satisfy
the projected final demand is computed.
The following section describes the inputoutput system used to compute the pro
jected toted outputs.
Input-output tables. An input-output trans
actions table is a rectangular array of
numbers which represents the transactions
of each sector or industry with all other
sectors. Reading across a row, the entries
represent the sales of the producing indus
try’s output to every consuming industry,
including itself, and to the components of
final demand. The sum of these entries is
total output. Reading down a column, the
entries represent the inputs to an indus
try from every industry, including itself,
used to produce its output. The sum of
purchased inputs plus value added8 equals
the total output of that industry.
An input-output transactions table, when
converted into ratios of entries for each
Classification in the input-output system.
In the 1963 input-output table of the Bu
reau of Economic Analysis (BEA), all pro8
Value added in an industry is the income flow m eas
ure of gross national product originating in an industry
adjusted for input-output accounting conventions. Value
added is composed of labor compensation, proprietors’
income, profits, interest, depreciation, and indirect busi
ness taxes.
139
ductive sectors were grouped into 476 sec
tors. The BEA also provided aggregations
of the 476-sector table into 367 and 87
sectors. The 134-order table used in these
projections was collapsed from the 367order table as published by BEA. The steps
involved in collapsing the table will be
outlined in the "stages of projection”
section.
Most of the producing industries are
combinations of detailed establishments as
defined in the Standard Industrial Classi
fication Manual (SIC), 1967 edition, pre
pared by the Office of Management and
Budget. The SIC content of the Economic
Growth 134-order, interindustry classifica
tion system is given in table A-2.
and to make scrap generation a function of
output, the BEA (and BLS) adopted the
following procedure: The scrap industry is
dropped out of the table by adding the
scrap industry column entries to the diago
nal cell of the industry actually generating
the scrap. In addition, the scrap row, that
is, input of scrap, is deleted from the ma
trix. This creates an imbalance in the col
umn sum since the scrap input and "output”
are rarely, if ever, equal for any one indus-try. In the BEA publications, another row
entitled "scrap and by-product adjustment”
is added which is precisely the negative of
the imbalance.
Economic Growth industry 132, "Rest of
world,” is modified by BLS from the proce
dure used by BEA to exclude travel re
ceipts from foreign visitors and personal
remittances in kind to foreigners. This ad
justment affects the industry detail of final
demand in the personal consumption expen
ditures and export categories.
The government sectors are classified
into two major categories, government en
terprises and general government. All Fed
eral, State, and local enterprises, that is,
agencies deriving 50 percent or more of
their revenue from sales to the public, are
included in EG industries 122 through 125,
along with their respective employment and
total receipts. EG industry 123, "Commodi
ty Credit Corporation” (CCC) is modified
by adding all of its intermediate inputs to
the respective government final demand
category. The employment associated with
the CCC and the employment involved with
general government activities, teaching, ad
ministration, etc., at the Federal, State and
local levels are included in EG industry
131, "Government industry.”
EG industry 126, "Directly allocated im
ports,” and EG industry 127, "Transferred
imports,” cover U. S. payments to foreign
ers for merchandise services and factors of
production. Items classified in EG industry
126, "Directly allocated imports,” have no
equivalent domestic products or are con
sumed in final demand. Items classified in
EG industry 127, "Transferred imports,”
have equivalent domestic products. The
service of domestics is classified in EG in
dustry 133, "Households.”
Industry conventions of the input-output
system. In the 1963 input-output industry
classification there are three industries
which do not exist in the real world. These
industries, called "dummy industries,” are
included to simplify the treatment of cer
tain product flows. Output of these dummy
industries represents an aggregation of
commodities or services which are produced
in other industries. Generally, the informa
tion available on their consumption is for
total consumption only. Thus, the products
are treated as being sold to the dummy
industry which then sells them to the con
suming industries. One such dummy indus
try is Economic Growth Industry 129, "Of
fice supplies,” which "buys” office supplies
from the producing industries and then
"sells” office supplies to the consuming
industries. The other two dummy industries
which perform similar functions are "Busi
ness, travel, entertainment, and gifts” (EG
industry 128), and "Scrap, used and second
hand” (EG industry 129). Purchases from
the dummy industries do not generate em
ployment or output in these industries them
selves. Rather, the employment and output
is generated in the industries which actually
produce the products and services. In addi
tion to being a dummy industry the scrap
industry presents the following problem. An
increase in scrap demand, would, by virtue
of the nature of the input-output model,
generate output in other industries to pro
duce this scrap. To eliminate this problem
140
Valuation of transactions. Input-output re
lationships may be expressed either in pro
ducers’ or purchasers’ value. Specifically,
the inputs for making an automobile can
be valued at the price paid by the pur
chaser or the price received by the produc
er. In the BEA input-output tables and
those used by the Division of Economic
Growth, producers’ value is used. In using
producers’ valuation, inputs into a con
suming industries are valued at producers’
prices. Trade margins and transportation
costs associated with these inputs appear
as direct purchases by the consuming in
dustry from the trade and transportation
industries. In effect, the purchase price is
still there but the demand is divided
into components which are purchased
separately.
Since the input-output table is in pro
ducers’ value, all trade and transportation
margins must also be stated as demand on
these sectors in the final demand estimates.
Once the estimated margins have been
separated in the final demand estimates,
the margins are aggregated and used as
the final demand estimates for the trade,
transportation, and other industries. Mar
gin ratios associated with each transac
tion and final demand categories were de
veloped as part of the 1963 input-output
study by the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce. This informal
tion was used to convert final demand
expenditures in purchasers’ value into pro
ducers’ value for the years covered by
these projections.
If the input-output table were stated in
purchasers’ value, the connection between
producing and consuming industries would
be lost. In a purchasers’ value table, the
trade sectors would purchase most prod
ucts from the producing industries and sell
these products to the consuming industries.
In producers’ value, the material or ser
vices can be "sold” directly to the consum
ing industry or sector. This method has
the added advantage of showing the rela
tionships between the producing industry
and final demand categories on a compara
ble (producers’ value) basis. Using a pro
ducers’ value system eliminates the sale of
products to the trade sectors. The output
of these trade sectors is then measured in
terms of total margins, that is, operating
expenses plus profit.
Secondary product transfers. The transac
tions recorded in an input-output table are
based on data contained in the Census of
Manufactures, the Census of Transporta
tion, and other economic censuses. The
Bureau of the Census assigns an establish
ment to an industry based on its primary
output, that is, those products or services
which produce the largest portion of its
revenue. However, in addition to primary
products, many establishments produce
other products, called secondary products
(or services), which are different from the
primary output.
Input-output analysis is simplified if all
output of a given product or service can be
sold from a single industry. To accomplish
this, an artificial sale, called a transfer, is
introduced into the input-output table. In
a transfer, the industry which produces the
output as a secondary product "sells” this
output to the industry whose primary prod
uct corresponds to this item. Inthisprocess,
the total output of the primary product in
dustry is thus increased by the amount of
this transfer since it becomes an input,
albeit an artificial input. For example, electric power is produced in the electric
utility industry, 101, the primary industry,
and industries 124 and 125, the secondary
industries, "other Federal enterprises,” and
"State and local government enterprises,”
respectively. In this situation the electric
power output of Federal Government and
State and local government power plants
is transferred to the private electric utility
industry for distribution to the consuming
industries and final demand sectors. In this
way, the final demand for a product gener
ates production in both the primary industry
and in the industry where the product is
secondary.
This transfer approach is widely used to
distribute the output of a number of indus
tries. The three dummy industries which
were discussed in the section on input-out
put conventions receive all of their output
as transfers from the producing industry.
The transfer technique also permits the
141
aggregative industry groups. In dividing
the U.S. economy into approximately 134
sectors, broad industry groupings such as
food and kindred products are created.
These large sectors include different com
modities and services, each of which has its
own set of input requirements. If the pro
duction of the various commodities changes
at different rates, then the total input coef
ficients of the sector may also change. This
can occur even if there are no technological
changes in the producing industries. For
example, the food industry is composed of
32 separate 4-digit SIC industry classifica
tions ranging from bakery products to wet
corn milling. Output of all of these sectors
may grow at different rates. Further, sincq
input requirements of these sectors can and
do differ somewhat, input coefficients (and
output) of the food industry may change
due to the change in product mix.
final demand bill of goods to be classified
only by primary product.
One alternative treatment of transfers
is used when secondary production is large
and inherently different from the primary
output of an industry, such as the baking
of bakery products by small retail establish
ments. In these instances, the industries
are redefined—the secondary products and
their associated inputs are removed per
manently from the producing industries and
assigned to the primary industries. In the
situation above, inputs and output resulting
from the baking activities were taken from
the trade sector and placed in the food in
dustry. Primary examples are the removal
of trade margin output from all industries
other than trade, and the removal of ser
vice activities, especially auto repair, from
trade.
Base-year prices. The basic input-output
table is for the year 1963 and is in 1963
prices. The 1970 table and each of the pro
jected tables for 1980 and 1985 are also in
base-year or 1963 prices. Developing pro
jections in base-year prices does not ignore
changes in relative price. For example, pro
jected changes in relative prices are used
in developing the detailed estimates of con
sumer expenditures. Also, the change in
relative price is implicit in projections of
input-output relationships. The substitution
of one material for another due to relative
price change may affect input-output coef
ficients in the same way as technological
change. Again, by developing the projec
tions in a constant price level, the changes
in output, demand, or input-output coef
ficients represent changes in quantities.
Projection of input-output coefficients. The
need to project input-output coefficients arises because continuing change occurs and
is expected to occur in the ratios of input to
output in industries. These changes come
from a variety of causes. Technological
change is one of these. Other factors, such
as product mix or price change, also can
cause significant change in coefficients.
Product-mix problems are inherent in a
system that uses fixed classifications and
142
Stages of projection. Before turning to the
specific methods of coefficient projection, it
is necessary to consider the context in
which those projections are made. As noted
in the preceding section, an input-output
system may be thought of in four related
parts; 1) the matrix of intermediate inter
industry transactions which is converted
to direct coefficients, 2) the set of values
added in the industries 3) the set of final
demands for the industries, and 4) the set
of industry outputs. Each is dependent on
the other and must be mutually consistent
in order to produce a balanced system. Al
though certain coefficients may be projec
ted independently, the projection of coeffi
cients cannot be a totally independent opertion but must be made in conjunction with
projections of industry final demands.
All projections of input-output relation
ships begin with a set of input-output tables
for a base year. For the 1980-85 projections,
the base-year table was the 367-order inputoutput transaction matrix prepared by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. From this
starting point, the first step was to collapse
the 367-order table into a 134-order table.
It should be noted that, with two minor ex
ceptions, the 134-sector table is directly
collapsible into the 87-sector classification
used by BEA and by BLS in previous pro
jections. Collapsing a table involves adding
selected industries from the 367-sector table
to form the industries in the new table.
Also, an adjustment is made to eliminate
secondary product transfers between the
input-output sectors being collapsed into
one sector. Next, to incorporate recent
structural changes, the base* year table
was updated to the latest year for which
reasonably complete data are available—
1970. This 1970 table is useful, both in it
self and as the base for the projections to
1980 and 1985.
When an updated input-output table is
developed for a nonbenchmark year, 1970,
some of the necessary data are not avail
able. Output levels by industry were esti
mated from Bureau of the Census data and
other sources. Industry output levels in
real terms were made using BLS data de
flated to 1963 price levels and adjusted for
secondary product transfers consistent with
input-output conventions. Final demand and
price data were taken from estimates pro
duced by the Department of Commerce, pub
lished annually in the July issue of the
Survey of Current Business. Final demands
were deflated and translated into industry
demands. All of these data were then con
verted from purchasers’ to producers’ value,
with adjustments for changing trade, trans
portation, and insurance margins.
When projecting an input-output table,
all the problems mentioned above exist; in
addition, of course, the need to judge future
changes enters. For example, industry struc
tures, growth rates, and production proces
ses may change due to factors unforeseen
or imperfectly understood. Development of
an input-output system for a projected year
requires estimating all parts of the system
as well as intergrating those parts into a
balanced system.
Matrix updating. The first step in develop
ing the 1970 input-output table was to esti
mate industry output and final demand by
industry. As noted above, the existing data
required a number of adjustments due to
input-output conventions and the need to
state input-output data in base-year prices.
143
One such adjustment was to replace the
1963 direct coefficients with independently
updated estimates for 1970 where such
estimates had been made. One example
where this information exists, and where
revised coefficients are substituted directly,
is the import sectors. With the incorporation
of the independently estimated coefficients,
the "actual” and "derived” intermediate
demands are calculated.
Since output had been independently de
termined, the actual and derived output
could be compared to determine the dif
ference. Given the many questions, prob
lems, and estimates which were used in
preparing the updated figures, a difference
of =t 2 percent was viewed as acceptable.
Larger differences were analyzed. This step
has been one of the most fruitful in un
covering unsolved or unrecognized prob
lems. Problems have been uncovered in vir
tually every area-final demand, deflators,
original total output, coefficients-each has
been found to contribute to the gap or dif
ference in some of the sectors. Errors in
final demand estimates occurred because
the product mix within a consumer classifi
cation had changed but the allocation of
that demand to industries had been initially
based on the base-year distribution.
Changes in the transportation and trade
margins may also have occurred in the
time since the base-year table was assem
bled. Errors of this type often can be de
tected only by working simultaneously with
the coefficients, industry outputs, and final
demands.
Whenever a number of changes in coef
ficients, outputs, or final demands were
made in the system, the gap analysis was
redone. If the appropriate corrections have
been introduced, the total gaps, on the
average, should have become progressively
smaller and many individual gaps elimi
nated.
The next step was to calculate the dif
ferences by industry between "actual” in
termediate demand and the "derived” in
termediate demand which was generated
by the base-year direct-coefficients matrix.
Actual intermediate demand for an indus
since it has possibilities of distortion which
must be adjusted for.
If the scaling procedure is done accurate
ly, the system will be in balance, i.e.:
try is simply its total output less its final
demand:
x- y = T
where
X is an N by 1 vector of total output,
Y is an N by 1 vector of final demand,
T is an N by 1 vector of intermediate output.
X - Y = AX = T
where
X is an N by 1 vector of total outputs,
Y is an N by 1 vector of final demands,
A is an N by
matrix of direct coefficients,
T is an N by 1 vector representing sum of interme
diate transactions matrix.
The "derived” intermediate demands
were calculated by premultiplying the cur
rent year output of each sector by a matrix
of base-year direct coefficients. In matrix
terms, this calculation is expressed as:
ax
Methods of coefficient projection. Several
techniques were used to project the inputoutput coefficients used in this study. One
set of techniques is concerned with individ
ual coefficients. Another set of techniques
is more general and focuses on interindus
try relationships with the added objective
of achieving a balanced system.The first
approach utilizes specific data changes for
selected input-output coefficients. Such
changes must be analyzed to determine the
factor causing changes. Among such factors
are changing product mix, price changes,
and/or technological changes. Estimates
were made of these factors for the ex
pected influence on the industry’s projected
purchases per dollar of its output. In addi
tion to statistical data, qualitative informa
tion was utilized when possible.
The second general approach to esti
mating the 1980 and 1985 coefficients takes
account of the other data and control totals
at the industry level. For example, an in
crease in electronics use in many different
sectors may be assumed, although the pre
cise future usage by any given industry is
uncertain. In the more general method of
coefficient projection, changes in the sales
of an industry to other sectors over time
are analyzed, that is, an industry is viewed
as a row in the conventional input-output
table. In updating coefficients, first to 1970
and then projecting to 1980-85, both ap
proaches were utilized.
=T
where
A is an N by N direct coefficient matrix,
X is an N by 1 vector of total output,
T is an N by 1 vector of intermediate outputs;
N in this set of calculations was equal to 134.
The actual and derived intermediate de
mand for each sector were then compared.
When time, resources, and/or data were
exhausted, there still remained a number
of industries where the derived output de
viated by more than =t 2 percent from the
independently estimated value of output.
At this point, an estimate was made of
value added by industry, or the difference
between real output and the sum of pur
chases of materials and services inputs,
also in real terms. By the nature of the
input-output system, total derived value
added will always equal total final demand.
Further, the procedure used by BLS in
estimating the intermediate matrix and total
outputs is almost the same as the double
deflation procedure used in estimating the
gross product originating by industry in the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. Thus, for
1970, a rough reconciliation of value added
and GNP originating could be made. How
ever, only a reconciliation at very aggrega
tive levels was made and only a few, rather
large, adjustments were made as a result
of this part of the analysis.
The final balancing was done by an itera
tive procedure which balanced final de
mands, value added, by detailed sector,
and also the independently estimated cells.
This procedure, known as the RAS, will
balance the matrix of transactions while the
independently estimated data are held con
stant. Again, the procedure is not automatic
Coefficients projections to 1980 and 1985.
Projecting coefficients and developing a bal
anced input-output system for a future year
or period, such as 1980-85, involves some
parallel and some different procedures com
pared to estimating a historical year. First,
data on industry outputs, final demands,
144
and technological advances contributing to*
coefficient change in 1980-85 must be en
tirely estimated, although past trend data
could be used to help do so.
The first step in developing the direct
coefficients matrix for 1980 was to estimate
the 1960 to 1970 trends of coefficient
change by industry. A large change in the
coefficients of an industry could result from
a one-time shift in its input structure due
to a major technological advance; further
rapid changes in larger coefficients are not
likely to continue indefinitely. An example
is the growth of tufted versus woven car
peting where the change was very rapid. On
the other hand, a gradual, well-defined
change in the structure of a particular in
dustry, or in the relative importance of
some coefficients within an industry, may
continue over a long period of time. An
example here was the long time required to
convert steel production to the basic oxygen
process. Information gained from individual
industry studies also may contribute to the
projection of trends. These sources of in
formation were used to adjust the 1970
matrix, which then became a first approxi
mation of the 1980 and 1985 direct coef
ficients matrix.
The second step in developing the 1980
and 1985 system was the estimation of final
demands by industry; the estimation pro
cedures for final demand are covered
thoroughly in the section on final demand
in this appendix.
Total output is then the result of the in
dependently projected coefficient matrix.
In reality, the methods used by the
Economic Growth group included a phase
of evaluating outputs derived from the ma
trix with past sector trends in output as
well as independent projections of output.
This evaluation process is described in the
section on balancing the projections.
Output per man-hour. In order to progress
from the projection of the growth rates of
industry outputs to the projection of em
ployment in each industry, it is necessary
to develop an estimate of the change in in
dustry output per man-hour.
Four alternative means of projecting in
dustry productivity were used: ( 1) a re
gression approach which expressed the ra
tio "output per man-hour" as a function of
time and the domestic output of the indus
try (2) a least squares time trend of the
ratio "output per man-hour;” (3) an adjust
ment method, that is, adjusting the histori
cal least squares trend of industry produc
tivity for changes in the projected output
growth rate relative to historical least
squares trend of output, and (4) an ad hoc
projection of productivity for those indus
tries whose historical and projected output
trends are very dissimilar. The final in
dustry projections do not conform to any
one of these four methods although the third
method was used the most.
Microeconomic or industry projections of
employment
The projections of output by sector are
the essential input to projections of employ
ment by industry. In developing projections
of employment, both changes in output per
man-hour and changes in man-hours are
used.
145
Method One: Regression approach. The re
gression approach expresses the demand
for labor services, output per man-hour, as
a function of time and output:
Output/man-hour — a -+ a log output -t- a-j time.
-
This approach seeks to account for the
short-term responses of cyclical movements
of labor demand to output fluctuations in
order to obtain estimates of the long-term
trend of labor demand. The model assumes
the trends of capital services and technolo
gy can be approximated by a time variable.
The estimated coefficient of output " a ” , re
flects the cyclincal response of labor demand
to output flucuations. This coefficient can
be interpreted as returns to labor if the
capital utilization rate is assumed constant
through time, or it may be interpreted as
returns to scale if the utilization rate of
capital stock varies through time. In the
actual use of this regression method, there
was no attempt to distinguish between the
short- and long-term trends of labor demand
but, rather, the estimated equation was used
as is.
The regression method was rejected for
two reasons. First, this method is inconsis
tent with the macro model assumption that
long-run productivity is totally inelastic to
long-run output fluctuations. The macro
productivity assumption for the entire pro
jected period, 1968 to 1985, is 2.7 percent
per year for the private nonfarm economy.
But the private GNP is projected to grow
4.4 percent per year between 1968 and
1980 and 3.4 percent per year for 1980 to
1985. The regression method assumes labor
demand responds to output fluctuations. The
second reason for rejecting the regression
method is that the estimated coefficients
of output " a ” were judged too large for
many industries. Independent analysis in
dicated that the response of labor to long
term output trend changes should be ap
proximately 0.3 for manufacturing indusgrowth rate relative to a historical least
jection period, 1968-1985, is 2.7 percent
0.5 percent. Because of problems ofmulticollinearity between time and output, itwas
felt that these larger output coefficients
mixed short and long responses of labor
demand to output fluctuations. The results
of the regression method are not surprising
when one considers the shortness of the
database, only 13 years, and the particular
years selected, years when in general the
growth of productivity for many industries
was low. Thus, the high "a ” coefficient is
consistent.
long and short trends as estimated by the
regression equation, but it proved unwork
able for those industries with significant
changes in projected output trends. For
example, the projected output trends of the
two industries "computers” and "photo
graphic equipment” are slower than their
respective 1958-70 trends. These two in
dustries were among the fastest growing
historically, in excess of 12.0 percent per
year, and are projected to be the fastest
growing in 1968-80, at 9.0 percent per year.
But because of the slower projected output
trends, it was thought appropriate to slow
the productivity growth trends in the pro
jected period.
Method Three: Cross-sectional data. The
third approach to projecting the long-term
relationship of output and employment
starts with the least squares time trend of
Method Two and adjusts this trend upwards
or downwards by some percentage of the
difference between projected and historical
output trends. This percentage adjustment
was estimated using cross-sectional data:
regressing the 1958-70 least squares time
trend of output:
(Rate of productivity change) = a 2 + a^ (Rate of
output change)
This approach is comparable to the regres
sion method except that the equation is
expressed in first differences and the data
are cross-sectional rather than time series.
This method assumes the response of labor
to output fluctuations is identical for all in
dustries within a particular sector—such as
durable manufacturing or nondurable manu
facturing.
As in the previous time-trend method,
only the estimated coefficient was used. In
this case, only the estimated coefficient of
output is used. The estimated coefficient of
output change was interpreted to say: For
every 1 percentage point faster (slower)
average annual rate of output growth (than
the
historical
trend),
productivity
would grow "a ” percent faster (slower) an
nually. For durable and nondurable manu
facturing, the estimated coefficients " a ”
were respectively 0.32 and 0.37. Therefore,
for computers, a durable manufacturing in
Method Two: A least squares time trend.
The second approach expresses the demand
for labor, output per man-hour, as a lunction
of time only:
log output/man-hour = a 0 + a 2 time.
This approach assumes the long-term
relationship of output and employment is
unaffected by fluctuations in the long-term
trend of output. It further assumes capital
and technology can be approximated by
the time variable. The estimated coefficient
of time was used as the long-term coefficient
of labor demand and the estimated constant
term was discarded in the projections. That
is, there was no attempt to see whether
the 1968 industry output per man-hour value
deviated from its estimated long-term trend.
This approach was desirable for it elimi
nated the problems of distinguishing the
146
dustry, the productivity trend would be 0.96
percentage points per year slower than its
historical trend because this industry’s pro
jected output trend is 3.0 percent per year
slower.
Productivity (1 9 6 8 -8 0 ) = 0.32 + productivity (1 96 8-70)
This estimated coefficient of output meas
ures the average rate of change of produc
tivity related to output changes, whereas
the coefficient is used to calculate the mar
ginal rate of change of productivity.
Method Four: Ad hoc productivity projec
tions. The final method was necessary for
those industries whose historical and pro
jected output trends were incompatible. The
historical trends of the defense-related in
dustries such as aircraft, guided missiles,
and other ordnance reflect the Vietnam war
spending of 1965-71, but the projections as
sume peace-time defense spending. For an
industry such as coal mining, historical
productivity trends are not likely to be con
tinued because of deeper mines, recent
mine safety legislation, and changes in type
of coal demanded to meet pollution regula
tions. Finally energy-related industries such
as crude petroleum, petroleum refining, and
gas utilities have historically met demand
mainly from domestic sources, but these
projections assume that these industries
will increasingly be supplied from foreign
sources, particularly over the period to 1980.
Average weekly hours. To continue the pro
gress from the projection of growth rates
in industry output and output per man-hour
to projections of employment in each indus
try, it is further necessary to develop esti
mated changes in the average workweek
(on a hours paid basis) for each industry.
For the most part, sector level projections
were based on historical trends, with some
judgmental analysis entering in mining,
trade, and other services. The projected
rates of growth for average weekly hours by
industry were assumed to be the same as
those projected for the sector to which the
industry belongs.
Employment. The estimates of employment
for each of the 124 industries were derived
147
from the projected levels of output, output
per man-hour, and average annual hours.
First, for each industry, projected output
was divided by the estimated output per
man-hour ratio in order to arrive at total
projected man-hours in each industry. Total
man-hours were in turn divided by proj ected
average annual hours, yielding projected
employment by industry. These industry
employment estimates include wage and
salary workers, unpaid family workers, and
the self-employed. The total employment
estimate for each industry was divided into
these three components using historical
industry distributions, with consideration
for discernable trends.
In the procedure just described, employ
ment was derived from estimated changes
in output per man-hour and estimated 1980
and 1985 outputs. When output by industry
is not of interest, there is a shortcut proce
dure by which the estimates of final demand
by sector can be directly converted into em
ployment. In the procedure, the 1980 and
1985 inverse matrices are converted into
interindustry employment tables. This is
accomplished by multiplying each row of
the inverse matrix by the projected em
ployment/output ratio for the industry of
that row:
E = R (I - A)~l
where
E = interindustry employment table,
R = diagonal matrix of industry employment/output
ratios,
(I-A )
= Leontief inverse matrix.
Ti e resulting matrix can be used to
dustry into the direct employment required
in that industry in meet this final demand
and the indirect employment required in
the supporting industries which provide the
raw materials, parts, components, fuel,
transportation, and distribution services
embodied in one of these final demands.
System balancing procedures
The 1980-85 projections contain many
complex relationships among economic var
iables that were developed through a
lengthy sequence of operations. It is nec
essary to have a set of checks and bal
ances to insure that the various stages of
the projections make up an internally con
sistent model. The economic growth model
is designed to provide a feedback and bal
ancing procedure with respect to three of
its elements, imports, investment, and em
ployment. Although the treatment of these
elements has been discussed earlier, their
special importance in balancing the sys
tem warrants separate presentations. In
practice, all three must be brought into
balance simulatenously.
Imports. As was noted in earlier descrip
tions, imports are treated in several ways.
First, total imports are estimated within
the Thurow macromodel and offset against
total exports in order to arrive at the net
export component of gross national pro
duct. Next, imports to final demand are
estimated as a part of the estimation of
demand GNP by industry in personal con
sumption expenditures, gross private do
mestic investment, and government expen
ditures. Intermediate imports are expressed
as two sets of coefficients within the inputoutput matrix. Those intermediate imports
competitive with U. S. goods are trans
ferred to the producing industry. Those
intermediate inports that do not have U.S.
produced counterparts are directly allo
cated to the consuming industry. When
total outputs are generated, the import
coefficients generate estimated intermedi
ate imports. These estimates, summed
with final demand import estimates, are
compared with the level of total imports
as generated in the macromodel. Next,
adjustments are made in import coeffici
ents and final demand imports to arrive
at a balance between the generated and
projected imports.
In this particular set of projections great
difficulties were encountered in balancing
imports. The decision was made to leave
imports in imbalance rather than strain
industry relationships completely beyond
historical trends. In 1980, generated im
ports outweigh total projected imports by
approximately $3.6 billion. This is prima
rily due to the large assumed bulge in
U. S. imports of crude and refined oil. It
was felt to be unreasonable to decrease
imports in other industries to offset this
increase. At the same time it did not seem
reasonable to increase total projected im
ports. Thus, it is left to the reader to de
cide the best method of resolving this dif
ficulty. The import projections for 1985
are in balance.
Gross private domestic investment. The
first step in balancing GPDI within the sys
tem is to check and, if necessary, modify
the levels of two categories within this
component. These categories are nonresidential fixed investment (composed of busi
ness structures and producers’ durable
equipment) and net inventory change.
An initial distribution of investment in
producers’ durable equipment is based on
historical trends. The allocation of net in
ventory change is based on the distribu
tion in a representative historical period.
An initial set of outputs is generated and
modifications are made to the allocation of
projected net inventory change on the ba
sis of implied rates of growth of output by
industry. Composition of inventory change
is weighted toward those sectors which have
unusually high projected rates of growth
in output.
For producers’ durable equipment and
certain components of nonresidential struc
tures, a somewhat more sophisticated bal
ancing procedure is undertaken. Invest
ment-output ratios are first developed for
each industry. These ratios are then pro
jected to the target years where strong
trends exist, or are related to projected
industry growth rates where the histori
cal trend was likely to misrepresent fu
ture developments. Applying these pro
jected ratios to the initial projections of
industry outputs yields estimates of invest
ment in producers’ durable equipment and
nonresidential structures by purchasing in
dustry. To compare these implied invest
ment requirements with the initial alloca
tion, it is necessary to transform them from
investment purchases by industry to invest
ment goods production by industry. A capi
tal flow table is used for this purpose; such
a table traces transactions in investment
goods between capital-producing and
capital-consuming industries. Only two capi
148
tal flow matrices are presently available:
the first, for 1958, developed by the BLS,
and the second, for 1963, developed by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis.9 However,
both row and column totals are available
through 1969. Using historical trends, the
totals for these rows (producers’ durable
equipment by producing industry) and col
umns (producers’ durable equipment by
consuming industry) were projected to the
target years. A scaling process1 was then
0
utilized to recompute the capital flows ma
trix in a manner consistent with the pro
jected row and column totals. The projected
investment/output ratios are then applied
to the capital flow table to arrive at PDE
by producing industry as implied in the
initial projections of output. If significant
differences are noted between the original
allocation of PCE and that implied by pro
jected output, then modifications are made
to bring these items into balance.
made in the individual industry projections
of output per man-hour. If these projec
tions of output per man-hour could be relied
on, the aggregate productivity used in the
first step of the projections could be modi
fied. However, the modifications usually
are made in the detailed industries’ pro
jected rates of change in output per man
hour, because, first, the aggregate output
per man-hour rates have been stable over
most of the postwar period and, second,
much remains to be learned about the ap
propriate method for projecting industry
productivity.
Plans fo r d e v e lo p m e n t
of d a ta and techniques
A number of research efforts are now
planned or underway both within the Divi
sion of Economic Growth and under its
sponsorship. The objective of these research
projects in the development of the tech
niques and additional data leading to im
proved projections of economic growth.
Employment. The last area where a balanc
ing check is made is total employment.
After the economic growth calculations are
completed, employment by industry is de
rived. These individual industry employ
ment levels are totaled and checked against
the total employment (on a job basis) used
in deriving the potential growth rate of
GNP in the supply GNP block of the esti
mation process. If these levels do not
match, several elements within the projec
tions are checked. For each sector the pro
jections of final demand, input-output coef
ficients, and output per man-hour are
evaluated. Modifications are made when
ever inconsistencies appear in order to
bring about the desired balance in employ
ment. Most often these modifications are
Thurow reestimation
Work is currently underway to reesti
mate the Thurow model. The data base
will be updated to 1972, adding 4 years to
the observations. In addition to the revised
database, some changes are being planned
for the model itself. The employment sec
tor of the model is being revised in con
cept so that the labor input to the produc
tion function will be based on establishment
data, rather than on household data as it
is currently estimated. Participation rates
and unemployment will continue to be based
on household survey data, with a conver
sion equation to derive the establishment
equivalent for use in the production rela
tionships. In addition to this change in the
labor input, the production function will be
disaggregated into a farm and a nonfarm
sector. In the State and local government
sector there will also be improvements in
estimation techniques and in the selection
of lst-stage instruments in the 2-stage least
squares estimates.
9See Capital Flow Matrix, 1958, Bulletin 1601, (B u
reau of Labor Statistics, 1968), and also A. H. Young,
et al, "Interindustry Transactions in New Structures and
Equipment,” Survey o f Current Business, August 1971,
pp. 16-22.
' 0 For a description of this scaling procedure see either
of the following: Richard Stone, ed., A Programme For
Growth 3, Input-Output Relationships, 1954-1966, (C am
bridge University Department of Applied Economics,
1963); or Lucy J. Slater, More Fortran Programs For
Economists, Occasional Paper # 3 4 , (Cambridge Univer
sity Department of Applied Economics, 1972).
149
R evision s of the Thurow m odel
Foreign trad e subm odel
The most important revision of the model
planned for the immediate future is a modi
fication of the supply sector. The private
production function currently in the model
has a tendency to overpredict private GNP.
It is believed that the technological change
component of the production function is
biased upward due to structural shifts which
have increased employment in high pro
ductivity sectors relative to low productivity
sectors. The movement of labor from agri
cultural to nonagricultural employment is
an example of such a shift. Separate farm
and nonfarm production functions have
been estimated to correct for this part of
the structural shift. It may be necessary to
make further adjustments to the production
relationships to account for other aspects
of this problem.
Several other possible modifications are
under consideration. In very general terms,
some of these involve: expanding certain
sectors to project more detail, making parts
of Federal Government purchases endoge
nous, and adding more monetary sector
equations and policy variables.
A foreign trade submodel is currently be
ing considered which would be used in con
junction with the Thurow macroe conometric
model. The model would provide estimates
of merchandise exports at the 3-digit SIC
level of detail as well as estimates of major
services accounts in the balance of pay
ments. The model would be demand ori
ented, with exports expressed as a function
of relative prices and foreign levels of de
mand. Imports would be determined at a
somewhat more aggregated level of detail
in order to yield estimates of the net U.S.
foreign trade position. The model would
operate as a submodel of the Thurow model
and provisions for feedback to the Thurow
model are not planned at present.
Gross private domestic investment
As mentioned earlier, two capital flows
matrices and time series on investment by
industry are currently available for use in
projecting the demand for capital by pro
ducing industries. Current and planned ef
forts by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and
others will improve both the projected esti
mates of investment by industry and the
projected capital flows relationships.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will
construct a capital flows matrix for 1967 to
complement the 1967 input-output table
now being developed. Jack Faucett Asso
ciates will soon complete work on capital
stock series by industry. Estimates through
1966 were released too late for incorpora
tion into this set of projections. The current
work by Jack Faucett Associates will revise
and extend these data through the most
recent year for which data are available.
By using capital stock data, it is planned to
explore other methods of determining in
vestment requirements by industry beyond
the investment output relationships used
in the current set of projections.
State and local governm ent expenditures
submodel
A submodel of State and local govern
ment expenditures is being developed for
use in the next series of projections. This
new model will be used as a supplement to
the State and local sector of the Thurow
model, providing more detailed and compre
hensive projections than are currently avail
able. These detailed projections will provide
a control total for preparing a State and
local bill of goods. In addition to more func
tional detail, the submodel will provide esti
mates of capital outlays for several State
and local government functions, employ
ment, transfers, and current expenditures
of government enterprises. The submodel
will be partially driven by Thurow model
projections of personal income. Whether
the sub-model will be fully integrated into
the macromodel' or used as a separate
model has not been determined.
Personal consumption expenditures
Plans for research in PCE include updating
the Houtakker-Taylor equations using
150
1967 constant dollars and an extended data
base, developing a set of optimal product
aggregates, and studying alternative esti
mation techniques. The bridging techniques
will be evaluated and modified while incor
porating the 1967 1-0 table. Concurrent
with the above tasks and depending upon
the availability of data will be a study of
consumer behavior using information to
become available from the BLS Consumer
Expenditure Survey and other sources.
ods developed to project output per man
hour by industry have, in general, been rela
tively unsuccessful.
A system of industry projections is cur
rently being explored which introduces such
variables as capital-labor ratios and labor
quality in addition to current explanatory
variables: output, man-hours, and time. Fur
ther, the historical data base is being ex
panded to include a larger portion of the
postwar period. A greater emphasis will be
placed on sector-level projections of output
per man-hour, with the industry level pro
jections being used to disaggregate these
sector projections. A research effort is un
derway to extend the time series on
output, man-hours, and employment back to
1947. It is believed that a longer time
series will improve the estimating tech
niques explored.
Output per man-hour
As is apparent in reading the methodolo
gy for developing the 1980-85 projections,
estimation of rates of growth in output per
man-hour relies primarily on past trends
for most of the industries. Statistical meth
151
Appendix B. Industrial Composition of Final Demand by Category,
Input-Output Matrices, and Related Data
Contents
Page
Explanatory notes.................................................................................................................154
Tables:
B-l.
Values of exogenous inputs to Thurow econometric model, selected
years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985.......................................... 156
B-2. Derivation of personal income, selected years 1955-72 and projected
for 1980 and 1985............................................................................................158
B-3. Demand GNP and major components, selected years 1955-72 and pro
jected for 1980 and 1985..............
160
Industrial composition of final demand, 1963, 1970, and prjected for 1980
and 1985:
162
B-4. Total final demand........................................................
B-5. Personal consumption expenditures............................................................. 164
B-6. Durable goods.................................................................................................166
B-7. Nondurable goods..................................................
168
B-8. Services..........................................................
170
B-9. Gross private domestic investment.............................................................. 172
B-10. Fixed investment............................................................................................174
B -ll. Net exports............,........................................................................................ 176
B-12. Federal Government purchases................................................................... 178
B-13. Defense purchases......................................................................................... 180
B-14. State and local government purchases........................................................182
152
C o n te n ts— Continued
Input-output matrices:
B-15. Direct requirements per dollar of gross output, 1970.................................184
B-16. Total employment (direct and indirect) per billion dollars of delivery
to final demand, 1970.....................................................................................228
B-17. Direct requirements per dollar of gross output, 1985.................................272
B-18. Total employment (direct and indirect) per billion dollars of delivery
to final demand, 1985.....................................................................................316
Factoring changes:
B-19. Factoring changes in output,
B-20. Factoring changes in output,
B-21. Factoring changes in output,
B-22. Average coefficient change,
1963-70........................................................... 360
1970-80........................................................... 362
1980-85........................................................... 364
1963-85............................................................366
153
Explanatory Notes
sumption expenditures is a positive rest-ofthe-world entry of the same size for net ex
ports. This entry is also eliminated and then
redistributed in the same pattern used to re
distribute the entry for personal consump
tion expenditures.
The 1963-dollar final demands shown in
tables B-4 through B-14 add to totals based
on demand-side GNP component deflators,
where as the corresponding totals shown in
the text have been adjusted to be consistent
with a 1963-dollar GNP based on supplyside deflators. As a result of this and an
aggregation problem in the 1970 data, the
two sets of 1963-dollar GNP components are
slightly different. The data shown in tables
B-4 through B-14 were those used in the
input-output part of the projections.
Tables B-6 through B-8. The breakdown of
personal consumption expenditures among
durables, nondurables, and services is based
on the classification used in the national
income accounts (see appendix table A -l).
The data in tables B-6, -7, and -8 sum to
total personal consumption expenditures as
shown in table B-5.
Table B-4. Total final demand is the sum of
demands from consumers, business, govern
ment, and foreign sources; the column totals
are equal to GNP. The data are the sums
of the corresponding entries in tables B-5,
-9, -11, -12, and -14. For 1963 only, an ad
justment has been made for Commodity
Credit Corporation inputs which has the
effect of increasing the sum of the 1963
total final demand column by about $1.5
billion over the GNP total. See notes for
table B-12 for an explanation of this ad
justment.
Table B-9. Gross private domestic invest
ment includes private demands for struc
tures and producers’ durable equipment
and the change in business inventories.
Table B-5. The treatment of the rest-ofthe-world industry (132) differs from that
adopted by the Department of Commerce
in its input-output study for 1963. In the
Department of Commerce study, expendi
tures in the United States by foreigners
and personal remittances in kind to for
eigners are shown as negative purchases
by personal consumption from the rest-ofthe-world industry. In the BLS data, for all
years, the negative entry has been elimina
ted and distributed among the other in
dustries. The sum of personal consumption
expenditures is unaffected by this adjust
ment. Corresponding to the original nega
tive rest-of-the-world entry for personal con
154
Table B-10. Fixed investment is equal to
total investment (table B-9) less inventory
change. Entries for the new construction
industries (12-16) represent all private in
vestment in structures. The entry for other
real estate (109) represents real estate
commissions. Sales of both used equipment
and structures are included in the scrap,
used and secondhand goods industry (130).
The entries for all other industries repre
sent demands for producers’ durable equip
ment.
Table B -ll. The detailed entries represent
gross exports of goods and services. The
entries for industries 126 and 127, imports,
contain gross imports of goods and services
with a negative sign so that the sum of the
column is equal to net exports.
The percent distribution in this table is
based on a total which excludes industries
126 and 127. It is, therefore, a distribution
eliminated from this table (see note for
table B-12).
of gross rather than net exports.
See the discussion of the special treat
ment of the rest-of-the-world industry in the
notes for table B-5.
Table B-16. The entries in each column
show employment required directly or in
directly per $1 billion of delivery to final
demand by the industry named at the head
of the column. Final demand is valued at
the site of production (producers’ value)
and excludes transportation and handling
charges. See appendix A, p. 141, for a
discussion of the valuation of final demands.
Employment includes wage and salary em
ployees, self-employed, and unpaid family
workers.
Table B-12. In the input-output tables de
veloped by BLS, the inputs of Commodity
Credit Corporation (123) have been elimi
nated from the interindustry flows. For 1963,
following the treatment adopted in the Com
merce department study, these inputs were
then added to the Federal Government
(nondefense) bill of goods. In other years,
however, there was insufficient data to carry
out the full adjustment. As a result the
Commodity Credit Corporation columns in
the transaction matrices are blank but the
corresponding additions to the Federal
Government bills of goods were not made.
Table B-17.
Table B-18.
See notes for table B-16.
Tables B-19 through B-21. The relative in
fluences on output of changes in input-output
coefficients and in final demand over time
were computed by varying each factor in
dependently while the other was held con
stant. The difference between the total
change in output and the sum of the
changes due to these two factors is due to
interaction between the factors and cannot
be separated.
TableB-13. Includes purchases by the De
partment of Defense and the Atomic Energy
Commission. Defense purchases are a com
ponent of total Federal purchases, shown
in table B-12.
Table B-15. The entries in each column
show purchases per dollar of gross output
by the industry named at the top. Transac
tions are valued at the site of production
(producers’ value) and exclude transporta
tion and handling charges necessary to
bring the item to the purchaser. The totals
shown in the table are equal to one less the
value added and scrap and byproduct ad
justment (see appendix A, pp. 124-151, for
details) coefficients. The input to the Com
modity Credit Corporation (123) has been
See notes for table B-15.
Table B-22. Average coefficient change
was computed as follows for each subperiod:
1.
2.
3.
155
The sums of each industry’ s intermediate sales
were computed for the base year.
Using the base-year direct coefficient matrix and
the final-year output levels (total and domestic),
a second set of intermediate sales was computed
and summed for each industry.
The compound annual rate of growth between
the two sums was then computed for each
industry.
Table B -l. Values of exogenous inputs to Thurow econometric model, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Projected
Variable
1955
1968
1971
1972
1980
1985
200.7
8 2 .2 7 2
3.58
5 .4 1 8
5.609
2.0 9 2
3.517
3.816
20 7.0
8 6 .9 2 9
5.93
4 .656
4.741
2 .0 0 3
2.738
3.353
20 8 .8
88.991
5.59
4 .355
4 .423
2 .020
2 .403
3.450
22 4.1
1 0 1.8 09
4.00
6.259
4 .0 7 0
2.0 7 0
2.0 0 0
2.300
23 5.7
1 0 7 .7 1 6
4.00
6.622
4 .1 0 0
2 .1 0 0
2.0 0 0
1.900
2 ,3 1 4
1,982
2,293
1,946
2,2 6 7
1,950
2 ,180
1,913
2 ,127
1,883
2.65
4.72
3.38
4.94
3.14
5.15
5.04
6.50
6.59
7.42
Federal corporate profits tax r a t e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........
.......
.5 2 0
S tate and local corporate profits tax (billio n s of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.00
Federal fuel tax (c e n ts /g a llo .n. .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.00
M o tor fuel usage (billio n s of g a llo n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47.7
Private GNP d e flato r (1 9 5 8 = 1 0 0 ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 16
.528
3.15
4.0 0
82.9
1.189
.480
4.10
4.00
97.5
1.359
.480
4.9 0
4 .0 0
105.0
1.398
.480
9.06
4.00
12 5.5
1.777
.480
14.60
4 .0 0
13 8.6
2.037
Grants-in-aid (billions of 1958 d o lla r s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6
School en ro llm ent (m illio n s , C e n s u s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37.4
Interest rate, 3 month governm ent b ills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.75
Yield on 3-5 year b o n d s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.82
S tate and local governm ent net interest payment (billions of current dollars).
.47
12.9
57.5
5.34
5.59
.04
16.6
59.6
4.34
5.77
- .20
20.6
59.1
4.07
5.85
-.4 0
35.0
57.8
4.0 0
5.80
.50
4 3 .3
0
4.00
6.00
.70
Subsidy less current su rp lus-Federa! (billio n s of current d o lla .rs .). . . . . . . . . . . .
. ..
1.5
Subsidy less current surplus -State and local (billions of current d o lla rs )
......
-1 . 6
Privately held Federal debt (billio n s of current d o lla.rs.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 7.0
..
N um ber of households (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 7 .7 8 8
Capital grants to the U.S. (m illio n s of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .( 3 )
4.1
-3 .4
2 2 8.5
6 0 .44 4
5.3
-4 .1
2 4 7.9
64.37 4
.717
6.1
-4 .4
2 6 2.5
6 6 .6 7 6
.700
7.0
-4 .5
32 0 .0
7 4 .72 8
1.0
8.0
-4 .9
3 2 0.0
8 1 .20 7
1.0
Total transfers to persons (m illio n s of current do llars). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.1
Personal transfers to foreigners (billions of current d o lla. r .s. ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
.5
Federal transfers to persons and foreigners (billions of current d o lla r s )
.......
14.4
State and local governm ent transfers to persons (billio n s of current dollars).. 3.7
Tax rate for unem ploym ent insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
.012
56.1
.8
48 .2
10.0
.015
88.9
1.0
74.9
16.6
.015
98.4
1.0
82.9
18.2
.018
180.0
.8
151.1
31 .3
.013
23 0 .3
.8
194.1
38.6
.013
Tax rate for OASDHI 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0 38
Coverage ratio, OASDHI 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .853
Wage base, O A S D H I3 (c u rre n t d o lla .rs .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,2 0 0
..
O ther Federal social insurance co ntributions (billions of current d o lla rs )
......
1.8
.086
.899
7,800
4.5
.104
.894
7,8 0 0
6.6
.104
.895
9,0 0 0
6.8
.117
.914
13,824
11.0
.117
.918
15,871
13.5
Population (m illio n s , Census series E ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .165.9
Labor force (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 8 .0 7 2
Unem ploym ent rate (p e rc e n t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.38
.
Adjustm ent (persons to jobs) ( m i llio n.s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.032
Federal em ploym ent (m illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
4.741
C ivilian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 1 6
Armed F o rc e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.025
Agricultural em ploym ent (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.434
Average annual hours:
Agriculture (p r iv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,480
N onagriculture (p riv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 ,0 8 8
GNP per m an-hour (1 9 5 8 dollars):
Agriculture (p riv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.31
Nonagriculture (p riv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.38
See footnotes at end of table.
156
(3 )
Table B -l. Values of exogenous inputs to Thurow econometric model, selected years 19 5 5 72 and projected for 1980 and 1985—
Continued
Average annual rates of c h a n g e 1
Projected
Variable
19 55 -68
1968-72
19 72 -80
19 68 -85
19 68 -80
1980-85
0 .8 9
1.69
(2 )
4.64
-1 .0 3
.31
-2 .2 7
-4 .9 4
0.9 5
1.59
(2 )
1.19
- 1.83
.02
-3 .2 7
- 4 .0 2
0.92
1.79
(2 )
1.21
-2 .6 4
- .09
-4 .5 9
-4 .1 3
1.01
1.13
(2 )
1.13
.15
.29
0
-3 .7 5
.51
.41
-.4 9
-.2 4
-.4 9
-.3 0
4.33
2.20
6.06
2.95
5.50
2.70
.12
9.23
5.48
4.35
2.03
-2 .3 5
11.68
0
6.09
4.13
0
7.99
0
2.2 5
3.04
-.5 6
9.44
0
3.08
3.22
10.32
Grants-in-aid (billions of 1958 d o lla r.s .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
3.36
School enrollm ent (m illions, C en s u.s) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Interest rate, 3 month governm ent b ills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.96
9.02
Yield on 3-5 year b o n d .s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
State and local governm ent net interest payment (billions of current dollars). - 1 7 . 2 6
12.41
.70
-6 .5 6
1.14
77 .83
6 85
-.2 8
-.2 2
-.1 1
2.8 3
7.38
.25
-1 .6 9
.42
18.34
8.67
.04
-2 .3 8
.31
23 .4 3
4.35
.75
0
.68
6.96
8.04
5.97
.76
1.82
(3 )
10.44
6.66
3.53
2.48
(3 )
1.74
.28
2.51
1.44
3.5 6
4.01
2.17
2.00
1.75
(3 )
4.56
2.36
2.85
1.78
(3 )
2.71
1.72
0
1.68
0
Total transfers to persons (m illions of current do llars). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.08
Personal transfers to foreigners (billions of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.68
9.74
Federal transfers to persons and foreigners (biliions of current d o lla r s )
.......
State and local governm ent transfers to persons (billions of current dollars)..
7.95
15.08
5.74
14.52
16.15
7.84
-2 .7 5
7.79
7.01
8.6 6
0.0
8.54
8.27
10.20
0.0
9.99
9.98
1.74
6.4 8
.40
4.88
7.30
4.62
4.87
-.1 1
3.64
10.87
-3 .9 9
1.48
.26
5.51
6.2 0
-.8 6
1.83
.12
4.27
6.6 8
-1 .2 0
2.60
.14
4.88
7.73
Population (m illions , Census series E.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
1.48
.
Labor force (m illio n s. ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14 7
Unem ploym ent rate (p e rc e n t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (2 )
Adjustm ent (persons to jobs) (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.30
Federal em ploym ent (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.30
C ivilian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.54
Armed F o rc e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.17
Agricultural em ploym ent (m illio n s ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - 3 . 9 4
Average annual hours:
Agriculture (p r iv a te ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - .53
N onagriculture (p riv a te. ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
40
GNP per man-hour (1 9 5 8 dollars);
Agriculture (p riv a te.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.57
2.6 0
Nonagriculture (p riv a te. ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Federal corporate profits tax r a te. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
State and local corporate profits tax (b illio n s of current d o lla rs )
.................
Federal fuel tax (c e n ts /g a llo n ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
M o tor fuel usage (billions of g a llo n.s. .) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Private GNP de flato r (1 9 5 8 = 1 0 0 ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . .
Subsidy less current su rp lus-Federal (billions of current d o lla .rs. ) . . . . . . . . . . . .
......
Subsidy less current s u rp lu s-S ta te and local (billions of current d o llars)
Privately held Federal debt (billions of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Num ber of households (m illio n s.). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Capital grants to the U.S. (m illio n s of current d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
..
Tax rate for unem ploym ent insurance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tax rate for O A S D H I4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Coverage ratio, OASDHI 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Wage base, O A S D H I3 (cu rre n t d o lla rs ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Other Federal social insurance contributions (billions of current d o lla rs )
......
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
2 Not calculated.
0.99
1.98
(2 )
-5 .3 1
-5 .7 7
- .87
-9 .0 8
-2 .4 9
-
-
.50
.29
5.50
2.70
-
5.51
2.69
.79
9.20
0
3.52
3.41
0
10.01
0
2.01
2 77
3 Not applicable.
4 Old age, survivors; disability, and hospital insurance.
157
-.4 9
-.3 2
5.05
0.0
5.14
4.2 8
0
0
.09
2.8 0
4.18
Table B-2. Derivation of personal income, selected years 195 572 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Billions of current dollars
—
Category
Projected
1955
1958
1959
1963
1965
1968
1970
$3 98 .0
$ 4 4 7 .3
$ 4 83 .7
$ 5 9 0 .5
$ 6 8 4 .9
$ 8 64 .2
$9 77 .1
46.9
41.1
51.7
58.9
76.1
84 .3
69 .2
80.1
31.5
32.1
11.1
2.1
38.9
38.5
14.8
1.6
41.4
41.5
17.6
- .8
52.6
54.7
26.9
-.3
59.8
63 .5
29.6
-3 .1
74 .5
78.6
47.1
-2 .7
87 .3
93 .5
57.7
- 6.4
-.6
.9
.1
.8
1.3
.7
16.1
24.1
24.9
33.0
37.2
10.1
10.5
12.1
11.6
13.6
12.6
17.6
16.5
310.9
36 1.2
38 3.5
Less:
Personal tax and nontax
p a ym e n ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
35.5
42 .3
Equals:
Disposable personal income ...
275.3
.
15.8
Personal saving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal saving rate as percent
of disposable personal
in c o m e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5.7
Disposable personal income
per capita (c u rre n t d o ll a r s ) . 1,659.1
Disposable personal income
1,896.5
....
per capita (1 9 6 3 d o lla rs )
Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Less:
Corporate profits * . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Capital consum ption
a llo w a n c e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
Indirect business ta x e .s. . . . . . . .
Social insurance contributions
S tatistica l dis crep a n cy. . . . . . . . . .
Plus:
Subsidies less current surplus
of governm ent enterprises ..
Governm ent transfers to
persons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N et interest paid by govern
m ent and consum ers . . . . . . . . .
D ividends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Equals:
Personal in c o m e.................
.
1980
1985
$ 1 ,0 5 5 .5 $ 1 ,1 5 5 .2 $ 2 ,1 5 6 .2
$ 2 ,9 3 7 .5
91.1
2 3 2 .0
30 5 .6
93.8
102.4
64 .6
- 3.4
102.4
109.5
73.7
- 1.5
17 9.0
18 6.6
129.3
0
25 2.7
25 0 4
164.1
0
1.7
1.2
1.7
2.5
3.1
56.1
75.1
8 8 .9
9 8 .3
178.4
2 2 7 .6
20 .5
19.8
26.1
23 .6
31 .0
24.7
31 .0
25.1
32.7
26 .0
62 .5
63 .9
8 1 .0
100.4
46 5 .5
53 8 .9
6 8 8.9
8 0 8 .3
8 6 3 .5
9 3 9.2
1 ,736 .5
2 ,3 7 6 .9
46 .2
60.9
65.7
97.9
116.6
117.5
142.2
2 6 9 .3
39 7 .0
31 8 .8
33 7.3
40 4.6
4 7 3 .2
59 1.0
691.7
74 6.0
79 7.0
1,4 6 7 .2
1 ,979 .8
22 .3
19.1
19.9
28.4
39.8
56 .2
60 .2
49 .7
101.3
134.3
7.0
5.7
4.9
6.0
6.7
8.1
8.1
6.2
6.9
6.8
1,822 .9
1 ,896 .8 2 ,1 3 8 .0 2,4 3 5 .4 2 ,9 4 4 .6
3,376.1
3 ,6 0 3 .0 3,8 1 6 .4
6 .5 4 6 .5
8 ,3 9 9 .6
1 ,939 .2
1,990.7
2 ,772 .1
2 ,8 4 3 .2 2 ,9 3 2 .8 3,9 4 1 .0
4 ,4 2 7 .6
2,1 4 1 .2
2 ,3 8 0 .8 2 ,6 3 8 .7
See footnotes at end of table.
1971
1972
158
Table B-2.
Derivation of personal income, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985—Continued
Average annual rates of change 2
Category
Projected
1955-68
1965-72
1972-80
1968-85
1968-80
1980-85
6.2
7.8
8.1
7.5
7.9
6.4
4.6
2.6
12.4
7.9
8.8
5.7
6.9
7.1
11.8
8.0
8.3
13.9
7.2
6.9
7.3
7.5
7.1
7.6
7.6
7.5
8.8
7.1
6.1
4.9
2.0
3.9
4.9
9.2
11.2
4.4
10.1
14.9
7.7
8.6
10.1
5.0
7.6
6.4
6.9
4.0
8.4
11.9
6.9
8.9
7.6
8.7
5.3
9.5
Equals:
Personal in c o m e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
6.3
8.3
8.0
7.6
8.0
6.5
Less:
Personal tax and nontax
paym e n ts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8.1
11.7
8.3
8.6
8.8
8.1
7.9
7.4
7.9
6.2
5.8
Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Less:
Corporate p r o f it s 1 ...........
Capital consum ption
allowances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Indirect business t a x e .s . . . . . .
.
Social insurance contributions
Plus:
Subsidies less current surplus
of governm ent e n te rp ris e s ..
Government transfers to
persons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Net interest paid by govern
ment and co nsum ers. . . . . . . . . .
Dividends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Equals:
Disposable personal incom e....
Personal saving. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal saving rate aspercent
of disposable personal
in c o m e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Disposable personal income
per capita (cu rre n t d o lla r s )..
Disposable personal income
....
per capita (1 9 6 3 d o lla rs )
6.1
7.7
7.4
8.3
9.3
7.4
8.1
1.3
.5
1.4
.1
.3
- .3
4.5
6.6
7.0
6.4
6.9
5.1
2.6
3.0
3.8
3.1
3.4
2.4
1 Includes inventory valuation ad justm ent.
2 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. Departm ent of Comm erce
Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
159
Table B-3. Demand GNP and major components, selected years 1955-72 and projected for 1980 and 1985
Billions of current dollars
co m ponent
1955
1958
1959
1963
1965
1968
1970
$3 9 8 .0
254.4
39.6
123.3
91.4
$ 4 47 .5
290.1
37.9
140.2
11 2.0
$ 4 8 3 .7
31 1.2
4 4 .3
14 6.6
12 0.3
$ 5 90 .5
37 5.0
53 .9
168.6
152.4
$ 6 8 4 .9
4 3 2.8
66.3
191.1
175.5
$ 8 6 4 .2
53 6 .2
84 .0
2 3 0 .8
2 2 1 .3
$ 9 77 .1
61 7 .6
91 .3
26 3 .8
2 6 2 .6
Gross private dom estic investm en t..
Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n re s id e n tia..................
l
S tru c tu re s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Producers'durable equipm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Residential s tru c tu re .s. . . . . . .
Change in business in v e n to rie s ..
67.4
61.4
38.1
14.3
60.9
62.4
4 1 .6
16.6
75.3
70.5
45.1
16.7
87.1
81 .3
54.3
19.5
108.1
98.5
71.3
25.5
126.0
118.9
88 .8
30.3
136.3
131.7
100.6
36.1
153.2
147.1
104.4
37.9
17 8 .3
17 2.3
118.2
41 .7
33 4.6
31 5.9
23 8 .7
66 .0
4 4 5 .3
425.1
318.1
8 7 .2
23.8
23.3
6.0
25 .0
20.8
-1 .5
28.4
25.5
4.8
34.8
27.0
5.9
45 .8
27.2
9.6
58.5
30.1
7.1
64.4
31.2
4.5
66.5
42.7
6.1
76.5
54 .0
6 .0
172.7
77 .2
18.7
2 3 0 .9
10 7.0
20 .2
N et exports of goods and services....
E x p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Im p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.0
19.8
17.8
2.2
23.1
20.9
.1
23.5
23.3
5.9
32.3
26.4
6.9
39.2
32 .3
2.5
50 .6
48.1
3.6
62.9
59 .3
.8
66 .3
65.5
-4 .6
73 .5
78.1
7.8
14 6.9
139.1
9.7
20 6 .0
19 6.3
G overnm ent purchases of goods and
services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal g overnm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N ational d e fen se. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
O th er. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tate and local g overnm ent
......
74.2
44.1
38.6
5.5
30.1
94.2
53 .6
45 .9
7.7
40 .6
97.0
53.7
46 .0
7.6
43 .3
122.5
64.2
50.8
13.5
58.2
13 7.0
66 .9
50.1
16.8
70.1
19 9.6
98.8
78 .3
20.5
10 0.8
21 9.5
96 .2
74.6
21 .6
12 3.3
2 3 4 .3
98.1
71 .6
26 .5
136.2
2 5 5 .0
104.4
7 4 .3
30.1
15 0.5
4 9 2 .6
16 6.6
113.6
53 .0
3 2 6.0
6 9 9 .3
21 8 .5
146.8
71.7
4 8 0 .8
Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal consum ption expenditures.
Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
S e rv ic e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1971
1972
1980
$ 1 ,0 5 5 .6 $ 1 ,1 5 5 .2 $ 2 ,1 5 6 .2
66 7 .2
72 6.5 1 ,321 .2
117.4
103.6
191.1
51 3 .5
27 8 .7
2 9 9 .9
28 4 .9
3 0 9.2
6 1 6 .6
1985
$ 2 ,9 3 7 .5
1,783 .2
23 6.4
6 6 7 .4
8 7 9.4
Average annual rates of change 1
Projected
1972-80
1968-85
1968-80
7.8
7.7
8.5
6.7
8.4
8.1
7.8
6.3
7.0
9.0
7.5
7.3
6.3
6.5
8.5
7.9
7.8
7.1
6.9
8.9
6.4
6.2
4.4
5.4
7.4
4.9
5.2
6.7
6.0
7.4
8.3
7.5
7.3
8.2
7.9
9.2
5.9
7.7
7.8
7.8
6.4
8.5
8.5
8.6
6.7
5.9
6.1
5.9
5.7
7.2
2.0
1.3
7.6
10.3
- 6.5
10.7
4.6
15.3
8.4
7.8
6 .3
9.4
8.2
8.4
6.0
6.8
1.6
N et exports of goods and services....
E x p o rts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Im p o rts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.7
7.5
8.0
-
5.6
9.4
13.4
2
9.0
7.5
8.3
8.6
8.6
10.0
9.3
9.3
4.5
7.0
7.1
Government purchases of goods and
services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Federal governm ent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
National defen se. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
O th er. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
S tate and local governm ent
......
7.9
6.4
5.6
10.7
9.7
9.3
6.6
5.8
8.7
11.5
8.6
6.0
5.5
7.3
10.1
7.7
4.8
3.8
7.6
9.6
7.8
4.5
3.2
8.2
10.3
7.3
5.6
5.3
6.2
8.1
19 55 -68
1965-72
6.2
5.9
6.0
4.9
7.0
Gross private dom estic in v estm en t..
Fixed in v e s tm e n.t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N o n re s id e n tia..................
l
Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Producers' durable equipm e n t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Residential s tru c tu re .s. . . . . . .
Change in business in v e n to rie s ..
Gross national p ro d u c. t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Personal consum ption expenditures.
Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
S erv ice s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1 Compound interest rates between term inal years.
2 N ot available
1980-85
SOURCE: Historical data from U.S. Departm ent of Com m erce, Bu
Economic Analysis; projections by Bureau of Labor Statistics.
160
N o te
Tables B-4 through B-18 are part of a set of tables which is
available on magnetic tape for $100. The set comprises final de
mand tables, a transactions matrix, a coefficients matrix, an in
verse matrix, and interindustry employment tables for 1963, 1970,
1980, and 1985. For further information, write to:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Chief
Division of Economic Growth
Bureau of Labor Statistics
441 G St., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20212
161
TABLE B-9: INDUSTRIAL COHPOSITION OF TOTAL FINAL DEBAND, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
(PRODUCERS* VALUE IN BILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
1970
19 6 3
1980
19 8 5
PERCENT
19 7 0
DISTRIBUTION
19 8 5
1.
2.
3.
N.
5.
LIV ESTOCK AND LIVE STOC K PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY S E R V I C E S . . .
IRON ORE B I N I N G ...................................................................................
2 ,1 9 2
7,001
391
10
72
2 ,5 3 8
7 ,2 6 7
276
-13
93
3 ,1 5 1
1 1,397
399
-2 8
300
3 ,9 5 2
1 2,7 85
97 6
-2 2
390
0 .3 3
0 .9 9
0 .0 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .2 9
0 .8 8
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE B I N I N G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS B E T A ! ORE B I N I N G ..................................
COAL B I N I N G ..............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUH...................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY B IN IN G AND QUARRYING.............................
-3
292
5 19
28
27
29
56
63 2
99
95
53
98
993
99
19 0
69
119
1 ,0 5 0
96
17 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 8
0.0 1
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0.0 1
0 .0 7
0 .0 0
0.0 1
11.
12.
13 .
19.
15.
CH EB IC AL AND F E R T I L I Z E R B I N I N G ..........................................
NEH R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION.......................
NEB NO NR ES ID EN TI AL B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION..............
NEB P U B LI C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION..................................
NEB HIGHBAY CONSTRUCTION..........................................................
87
2 7,099
1 7,565
7,1 6 9
6 ,9 9 1
169
2 5,3 29
21,578
1 0,685
6 ,6 9 9
277
9 2,911
3 9,7 35
2 3,5 05
7 ,7 8 1
3 95
5 0,5 20
9 1,153
27,691
8 ,3 5 6
0 .0 2
3.2 9
2.8 1
1.3 9
0 .8 6
0.0 2
3 .5 0
2 .8 5
1.9 2
0 .5 8
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
A L L OTHER NEH CONSTRUCTION.....................................................
BAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION............................
GUIDED B I S S I L E S AND SPACE V EH IC LE S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS............................................................. ..........................
6 ,7 9 5
9 ,9 2 9
3 ,9 8 1
1,671
5 3,089
9 ,9 7 6
6,0 9 6
3 ,0 9 1
3,8 8 9
6 5,135
7 ,3 9 9
9 ,2 9 7
3 ,7 2 6
3 ,2 8 7
8 6,1 39
8 ,8 5 5
1 1,899
9 ,9 8 7
3 ,8 9 9
9 7,2 98
0 .6 5
0 .7 9
0 .9 0
0 .5 0
8 .9 7
0 .6 1
0 .8 2
0.3 1
0 .2 7
6 .7 3
21.
22.
23.
29.
25.
TOBACCO BANUFACTURING...................................................................
F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD B I L L S ..........................................
MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FIOOR COVERINGS____
HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS................................................................
APPAREL..........................................................................................................
5 ,9 7 5
1,0 0 5
1,1 9 8
' 853
13,203
5 ,6 3 9
1,2 7 9
1,828
1 ,5 5 0
15,280
6 ,9 5 9
1 ,9 3 5
3 ,1 6 7
2 ,3 6 8
22,150
7 ,1 9 3
2,2 1 1
3 ,6 9 7
2 ,6 5 1
29,6 23
0 .7 3
0 .1 7
0 .2 9
0 .2 0
1.9 9
0 .9 9
0 .1 5
0 .2 6
0 .1 8
1.7 0
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS FABRIC ATED T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............
LOGGING, S A N H I L L S , AND PLANING H I L L S ..........................
B IL L H O R K , PLYHOOD, AND OTHER HOOD P R O D U C T S . . . .
HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................
OTHER FU R N IT U R E ...................................................................................
1 ,6 3 9
298
2 62
3 ,2 6 7
1 ,5 9 0
2 , 539
5 00
906
3 ,9 8 6
2 ,2 3 9
9 ,0 2 3
995
653
6,351
3 ,8 9 2
9 ,7 9 5
1 ,1 9 9
799
7 ,1 9 1
9 ,2 8 7
0 .3 3
0 .0 7
0 .0 5
0 .5 2
0 .2 9
0.3 3
0 .0 8
0 .0 5
0 .9 9
0 .3 0
31.
32.
33.
39.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................
P U B L I S H I N G .................................................................................................
P R I N T I N G .......................................................................................................
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS..............................................................................
1 ,8 7 2
200
3 ,271
730
2 ,6 0 2
2 ,6 3 0
337
9 ,5 1 2
99 9
3 ,9 0 5
5 ,5 5 7
5 98
6,7 7 9
1 ,8 9 6
7 ,1 9 3
6 ,8 6 9
70 8
7 ,6 7 2
2 ,3 9 8
8 ,6 3 0
0 .3 9
0 .0 9
0 .5 9
0 .1 3
0 .5 1
0 .9 8
0 .0 5
0 .5 3
0 .1 6
0 .6 0
36.
37.
38.
39.
90.
AGRICULTURAL CHE MI CA LS ................................................................
P L A S T I C MAT E RI AL S AND SYN THETIC RUBBER...................
SYNT HE TIC F I B E R S .................................................................................
DRUGS...............................................................................................................
CLEANING AND T O I L E T PREPARATIONS....................................
289
9 56
176
2 ,6 2 0
3 ,7 3 0
90 2
837
191
9 ,9 8 2
6 ,5 1 9
1 ,0 9 2
1,603
2 99
9,951
12,761
1,3 5 8
1 ,9 8 6
362
1 1,899
1 6,0 65
0 .0 5
0 .1 1
0 .0 2
0 .5 8
0 .8 5
0 .0 9
0 .1 9
0 .0 3
0 .8 2
1 .1 1
91.
92.
93.
99.
95.
P A I N T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS...................................................................................
P L A S T I C PRODUCTS.................................................................................
LEA THER, FOOTHEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
99
10,100
2 ,161
379
3,091
191
19,271
3 ,9 9 9
750
3 ,3 0 5
2 33
2 2,9 53
6 ,2 2 9
1,181
9 ,1 7 3
265
26,8 05
7 ,5 6 2
1 ,9 0 7
9 ,6 2 9
0 .0 2
1.8 6
0 .9 5
0 .1 0
0 .9 3
0 .0 2
1.8 5
0 .5 2
0 .1 0
0 .3 2
96.
97.
98.
99.
50.
GLA SS ...............................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND BASI C STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
99 8
99
9 02
596
57
58 9
81
57 9
1 ,1 6 3
139
821
129
86 8
2 ,2 9 9
299
99 3
191
1,0 0 0
2 ,8 0 2
38 6
0 .0 8
0.0 1
0 .0 7
0 .1 5
0 .0 2
0 .0 7
0 .0 1
0 .0 7
0 .1 9
0 .0 3
51.
52.
53.
59.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS...................................................................
PRIBARY A L U B I N U H .................................................................................
OTHER PRIBARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS B E T A ! . .
COPPER ROL LING AND DRAHING.....................................................
ALUMINUM RO L LI NG AND D RA B IN G ...............................................
210
79
70
28
132
202
197
291
53
239
381
38 6
608
89
305
9 20
501
71 6
92
339
0 .0 3
0 .0 3
0 .0 9
0 .0 1
0 .0 3
0.0 3
0.0 3
0 .0 5
0.0 1
0 .0 2
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROL LING AND DRAHING..........................
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS BETAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL CON TA INE RS .................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S .................
FABR ICAT ED STRUCTURAL B E T A L ..................................................
88
35
69
131
889
187
57
80
139
1 ,3 5 9
395
102
117
238
2 ,2 8 2
9 52
118
122
2 89
2 ,5 7 9
0 .0 2
0.0 1
0 .0 1
0 .0 2
0 .1 8
0.0 3
0.0 1
0 .0 1
0 .0 2
0 .1 8
61.
62.
63.
69.
65.
SCREH MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER FABRIC ATED BETAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E NGIN ES, T U R B I N E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARM MACHINERY......................................................................................
CONSTRUCTION, B I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D M A CH IN E RY ..
90 9
1 ,2 2 2
1 ,022
2 ,2 7 0
2 ,8 8 6
67 0
1,8 6 5
1 ,7 1 9
3 ,9 8 2
3 ,9 8 3
99 8
3 ,1 9 9
3 ,9 8 5
5 ,6 3 0
6 ,5 1 6
1 ,1 2 9
3,8 2 8
9 ,3 0 8
6 ,5 5 6
7 ,9 3 9
0 .0 9
0 .2 9
0 .2 2
0 .9 5
0 .5 2
0 .0 8
0 .2 6
0 .3 0
0 .9 5
0 .5 1
66.
67.
68.
MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT..................................................
HETALHORKING MACHINERY................................................................
SPE CIA L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.....................................................
89 9
2 ,3 3 9
2 ,6 5 5
1,298
3 ,0 3 3
3 ,9 6 6
2 ,2 3 3
9 ,7 2 8
5,9 6 9
2 ,9 7 9
5,3 1 1
5 ,8 7 9
0 .1 6
0 .3 9
0 .9 5
0 .2 1
0 .3 7
0 .9 1
16 2
TABT E B-4: INDUSTRIAL CWffOSlTIGN OF TOTSL FI BA L DEMAND, 1963, 1 9 7 0 , AND PROJECTED 19 8 0 AND 1 9 8 5 - - C O N I I N U E D
t«0Df?CE?,S' VALUE IN BILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
19 6 3
19 7 0
19 8 0
1-985
PERCENT
1970
DISTRIBUTION
19 8 5
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PEODDCTS...................................................................
COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT...............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O F F IC B MACHINES.......................
SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................
2 ,0 5 5
1 09
1 ,9 9 4
625
1 ,8 2 9
2 ,5 9 6
201
5 ,2 6 4
1 ,0 8 9
3 ,1 4 7
4,1 8 7
364
1 5,687
2 ,4 7 3
5 ,8 3 9
5 ,0 6 6
4 32
21,5 43
3 ,0 9 7
6 ,9 4 3
0 .3 4
0 .0 3
0 .6 8
0 .1 4
0 .4 1
0 .3 5
0 .0 3
1 .4 9
0 .2 1
0 .4 8
79.
75.
76.
77.
78.
E LEC TR IC TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT.......................................
ELE CT R IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ......................................................................
ELE CT RIC L IG H T I N G AND H I R I N G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ETS........................................................
1 ,7 0 5
1 ,0 2 9
3,281
65 3
2 ,4 4 2
1 ,8 7 2
1,257
5,3 4 3
1,0 6 8
5 ,2 7 9
3 ,3 6 6
2,5 8 5
8 ,5 0 2
1,937
9,3 4 2
4 ,2 4 0
3 ,0 9 1
1 0,3 06
2 ,3 6 9
11,303
0.2 4
0 .1 6
0 .6 9
0 .1 4
0 .6 9
0 .2 9
0 .2 1
0 .7 1
0.1 6
0 .7 8
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELECTRONIC CCMMUNICATICN EQUIPMENT..............
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER E L E CT R IC AL MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S .............. .......................................................................
1 ,0 6 3
5 ,8 2 8
865
79 3
24,357
2 ,0 0 7
6 ,7 8 0
1 ,8 3 3
1 ,3 0 8
29,309
3,861
11,189
3,5 6 2
2 ,4 5 5
5 8,2 75
4 ,6 0 0
1 3,623
4 ,5 7 4
3 ,0 5 1
6 6,147
0 .2 6
0 .8 8
0.2 4
0.1 7
3 .8 1
0 .3 2
0 .9 4
0 .3 2
0 .2 1
4 .5 8
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A FT .......................................................................................................
SH IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND B E P A I R ..................................
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT___
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT....................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS....................
9 ,2 2 6
1 ,667
1 ,292
8 52
1 ,4 1 7
11,604
1 ,8 5 3
2 ,221
2 ,6 4 6
1 ,9 3 2
16,783
5 ,0 0 9
4 ,4 8 3
7 ,1 0 7
2,801
1 9,8 07
4 ,9 4 0
4 ,9 6 9
8 ,4 8 4
3 ,2 2 8
1 .5 1
0.2 4
0 .2 9
0 .3 4
0 .2 5
1.3 7
0 .3 4
0.3 4
0 .5 9
0.2 2
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRU ME NT S..........................................
OPT ICAL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION.............................................................
610
42 9
89 8
4 , 170
3 ,3 7 0
994
761
2 ,0 2 5
6 ,6 1 0
4 ,3 9 7
2,2 9 3
1 ,307
4,7 1 7
10,351
7 ,2 1 5
2 ,8 7 2
1,5 6 7
6 ,3 7 7
1 2,455
8 ,3 0 8
0 .1 3
0 .1 0
0.2 6
0 .8 6
0 .5 7
0.2 0
0 .1 1
0.4 4
0 .8 6
0.5 7
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL TR A NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPORTATION......................................................................
HATER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
A I R TRANSPORTATION...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
2 ,6 4 6
4 ,3 3 2
2 ,4 2 7
2 ,1 9 1
395
2 ,7 7 9
5,3 9 3
3 ,7 9 7
4,9 7 2
593
3 ,1 2 0
8 ,7 3 8
6 ,1 1 3
10,597
1,004
3 ,2 2 9
10,251
7 ,3 9 5
13,412
1,2 1 9
0 .3 6
0 .7 0
0 .4 9
0.6 5
0 .0 8
0.2 2
0 .7 1
0 .5 1
0.9 3
0 .0 8
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND TV ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING.......................................................
E LE CTR IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
HATER AND SANITARY S E R V IC E S ..................................................
6 ,7 5 5
45
7 ,0 6 5
3 ,991
1,456
1 2,416
74
11,436
5 ,2 9 0
1 ,7 7 2
2 5,858
140
19,741
7,9 3 9
1,819
3 3,921
158
23,8 79
9 ,3 9 4
1 ,8 4 7
1.61
0 .0 1
1 .4 9
0 .6 9
0 .2 3
2 .3 5
0 .0 1
1 .6 5
0 .6 5
0 .1 3
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE TEADE...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE...........................................................................................
PIN AN CE .........................................................................................................
INSURANCE....................................................................................................
OHNER-OCCUPIED DW ELLINGS...........................................................
2 5,775
62,8 05
9,071
8 ,1 5 0
3 8,7 26
37,558
85,212
1 2,359
10,801
5 2,672
61,519
133,351
21,974
17,470
83,382
72,3 90
154,410
26,3 48
20,6 60
1 03 ,247
4 .8 8
11.0 8
1.6 1
1.4 0
6 .8 5
5 .0 1
10.68
1.8 2
1 .4 3
7.1 4
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
OTHER REAL E ST A TE ..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING PLA CE S........................................................
OTHER PERSONAL SER VI CE S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R V I C E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS I N G ..............................................................................................
1 7,4 15
2 ,5 8 5
1 0,022
2,8 9 0
169
25,807
3 ,7 7 2
11,183
4 , 199
31 3
4 3,3 56
6,0 0 3
15,454
7,9 6 2
6 99
53,6 27
7 ,4 9 0
17,137
10,053
900
3 .3 5
0.4 9
1.4 5
0 .5 5
0 .0 4
3 .7 1
0.5 2
1 .1 9
0 .7 0
0 .0 6
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VI CE S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ..............................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
3 ,0 4 9
6 ,8 1 3
1 ,3 2 4
3,7 6 3
1 1,497
3,811
8 ,1 3 5
1 ,0 9 5
4 ,2 0 5
15,654
5 ,9 1 3
11,881
1 ,1 1 8
6,4 1 0
2 8,0 00
6 ,9 6 3
1 3,2 89
1 ,0 6 3
7 ,3 0 8
3 3,6 99
0 .5 0
1.0 6
0.1 4
0 .5 5
2.0 4
0.4 8
0 .9 2
0 .0 7
0.5 1
2.3 3
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S E R V IC E S ......................................................................
ORG AN IZ AT IO NS .............................................................
POST O F F I C E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY C B E DI T COFPOFATION...............................................
7 ,0 3 4
5 ,2 8 5
7 ,6 8 9
1 ,2 0 3
0
11,404
7 ,2 6 2
10,154
1 ,7 0 3
0
2 2,4 10
1 1,136
15,386
2,9 7 8
0
29,3 73
13,360
1 8,250
3 ,5 9 3
0
1.4 8
0 .9 4
1.3 2
0 .2 2
0 .0 0
2.0 3
0.9 2
1.2 6
0 .2 5
0 .0 0
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL E NT ER PR ISE S........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E NTE RP RI SES ....................
DIR EC TL Y ALLOCATED IM FO RT S .....................................................
TRANSFERRED IMP O RT S ........................................................................
BUSINESS TRA VEL , EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............
73
857
-3 ,4 7 8
-1 4 ,3 1 8
0
97
1 ,4 2 4
-3 ,8 7 3
-2 7 ,9 0 3
0
139
2 ,3 6 6
-8 ,5 4 7
-5 5 ,1 9 6
0
151
2 ,8 9 4
-8 ,7 9 6
-7 6 ,6 0 0
0
0 .0 1
0 .1 9
-0 .50
-3 .63
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0.2 0
-0.61
-5 .3 0
0.0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O FFI CE S U P P L I E S ...................................................................................
SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS....................................
GOVERNMENT I N D U S T R Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IND US TR Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
3 85
-2 8 6
5 5,030
4 ,1 8 5
3 ,8 2 3
7 97
-3 1 0
69,140
6 ,5 5 4
3 ,1 9 6
1 ,725
153
8 2,6 85
1 5,400
2 ,6 8 4
2 ,1 4 3
181
91,481
23,1 50
2 ,3 2 1
0 .1 0
-0 .0 4
8 .9 9
0 .8 5
0.4 2
0 .1 5
0 .0 1
6 .3 3
1 .6 0
0 .1 6
134.
INVENTORY VAL UATION ADJUSTMENT..........................................
T O TA L ...............................................................................................................
-5 0 2
5 91,912
-4 ,3 1 6
7 69,224
-1 ,0 1 7
,2 2 7 ,8 0 0
-980
1,4 4 5 ,4 0 0
-0 .56
100 .00
-0 .0 7
100.00
NONPROFIT
16 3
TABLE B-5: INDUSTRIAL COHPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1990 AND 1985
(PRODUCERS* VALUE IN HIILIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRX CODE
19 6 3
1 97 0
19 8 0
1985
PERCENT D I S T R I B U T I O N
1970
198 5
1.
2.
3.
1*.
5.
LIVESTOCK AND LIV ESTOCK PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRI AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FI SH ER Y S E R V I C E S . . .
IRON ORE H I N I N G ...................................................................................
1,762
2 ,8 6 7
419
15
0
1 ,7 6 5
3 ,0 5 3
553
24
0
2 ,1 6 9
4 ,189
7 39
46
0
2 ,4 5 5
4 ,8 5 4
849
58
0
0 .3 5
0.6 1
0.1 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.2 6
0.5 1
0 .0 9
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE H I N I N G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G ..................................
COAL H I N I N G ...............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM...................................................................................
STONE AND CL a T H I N I N G AND QUARRYING............................
0
0
16 5
0
15
0
0
157
0
17
0
0
108
0
33
0
0
39
0
40
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
CHEHIC AL AND F E R T I L I Z E R H I N I N G ..........................................
NEH R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION.......................
NEW N O NR E S ID E NT IA L B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION..............
NEH P U B L I C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION..................................
NEH HIGHHAY CONSTRUCTION..........................................................
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
16.
17.
18.
19 .
20.
ALL OTHER NEH CONSTRUCTION.....................................................
MAINTENANCE AND RE P AI R CONSTRUCTION............................
GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................ ..
OTHER ORDNANCE................................................................................... ..
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
0
0
0
1 81
4 9 ,5 18
0
0
0
2 67
59,650
0
0
0
483
7 8,470
0
0
0
59 9
88,5 36
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
1 1.8 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 6
9 .3 7
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING...................................................................
F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD H I L L S ..........................................
MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R I N G S . . . .
HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS................................................................
APPA RE L................................................................... .....................................
4,941
609
1,011
821
12,716
5 ,0 7 4
81 0
1 ,5 0 6
1 ,4 7 9
14,520
6 ,2 3 6
1 ,2 0 8
2,5 8 6
2 ,2 2 7
2 0,7 43
6 ,3 6 7
1 ,3 6 8
2 ,9 9 1
2 ,4 6 6
2 2,9 46
1 .0 1
0.1 6
0 .3 0
0 .2 9
2 .8 8
0 .6 7
0 .1 4
0 .3 2
0 .2 6
2 .4 3
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS FA BRICATED T E X T I L E PRODUCTS............
LOGGING, S A H H I L L S , AND PLANING H I L L S ..........................
H I L LH O R K , PLYHOCD, AND OTHER HOOD P R O D U C T S . . . .
HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................
OTHER F U R N IT U R E ...................................................................................
1,482
62
168
3,0 2 4
133
2 ,3 2 7
66
251
3 ,6 1 6
201
3 ,6 6 8
60
4 05
5 ,8 0 9
3 43
4 ,3 7 6
59
467
6 ,5 5 8
3 96
0 .4 6
0 .0 1
0 .0 5
0 .7 2
0 .0 4
0 .4 6
0 .0 1
0 .0 5
0 .6 9
0 .0 4
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................
P U B L I S H I N G .................................................................................................
P R I N T I N G .......................................................................................................
CHEHICAL PRODUCTS..............................................................................
1,241
74
2 ,7 3 5
424
3 50
1 ,5 0 9
105
3 ,5 3 8
517
540
2 ,9 1 7
207
5 ,1 4 8
1 .0 7 0
9 25
3 ,5 0 2
248
5 ,9 4 9
1,2 8 3
1 ,1 1 2
0 .3 0
0 .0 2
0 .7 0
0 .1 0
0.1 1
0.3 7
0.0 3
0 .6 3
0.1 4
0 .1 2
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
AGRICULTURAL CH E MI CA L S ................................................................
P LA S TI C MAT ER IAL S AND SYN THETIC RUBBER..............
SYNTHETIC F I B E R S .................................................................................
DRUGS...............................................................................................................
CLEANING AND T O I L E T PR EPARATIONS ....................................
45
12
0
1 ,9 8 2
3,4 1 4
0
19
0
3 ,2 8 9
5 ,8 9 6
1 14
28
0
5,8 9 4
1 1,419
136
34
0
7 ,4 0 6
1 4,4 97
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .6 5
1.1 7
0.0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .7 8
1 .5 3
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
P A I N T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS...................................................................................
P LA S TI C PRODUCTS.................................................................................
LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
23
8 ,2 2 8
1 ,7 0 5
158
3 ,0 2 2
19
11,341
2 ,8 7 2
4 22
3 ,2 7 3
38
17,516
5,3 8 6
5 37
4,1 0 4
45
21,1 49
6 ,5 8 3
620
4 ,5 2 0
0 .0 0
2 .2 5
0.5 7
0 .0 8
0 .6 5
0 .0 0
2.2 4
0 .7 0
0 .0 7
0 .4 8
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
GLA SS ...............................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND BAS IC STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
23 8
2
215
9
0
235
3
276
16
0
241
5
368
25
0
279
6
422
28
0
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 4
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS...................................................................
PRIMARY ALUMINUM................................................................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L . .
COPPER ROL LING AND DRAWING.....................................................
ALUMINUM ROL LING AND DRAWING...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING.........................
MISCELLANEOUS NCNFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL CO NTA INE RS .................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S .................
FABRICATED STRUCTURAL ME TAL..................................................
3
9
0
73
15
3
12
0
55
23
4
9
0
88
39
5
11
0
107
45
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0.0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.0 1
0 .0 0
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER FABRIC ATED METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E NG IN ES , T U R B I N E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARM MACHINERY......................................................................................
CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MA CH IN E RY ..
26 6
571
125
10
0
260
828
22 9
16
0
226
1 ,3 8 7
505
28
0
264
1 ,6 9 9
63 3
32
0
0 .0 5
0 .1 6
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .1 8
0 .0 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
66.
67.
68.
MAT ERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT..................................................
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.....................................................
0
77
21
0
117
24
0
201
41
0
231
47
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
16 4
T*»ie e-5« tSOfl'STMAL COfiPGSlTtON OF PNRSONAL COfl-5T)"(lPTIOH E I P E S M W F S S ,
(PRODUCERS' VALBE IN Buttons OF 1963 DOLL AES)
INDUSTRY CODE
1963, 1970, AMD PROJECTED T9S0 AMD 1985 — CONTINUED
19 6 3
1970
198 0
1985
PERCENT
197 0
DISTRIBUTION
19 8 5
69 .
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MAC HINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT...............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES.......................
SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................
0
2
0
88
336
0
0
0
190
5 76
0
0
0
290
9 69
0
0
0
276
1 ,1 7 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0.1 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.0 3
0 .1 2
79.
75.
76.
77.
78.
ELE CTR IC TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT.......................................
E LEC T R IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.......................................
HOUSEHOLD A PP L IA N C E S ......................................................................
ELECT RIC L IG H T I N G AND H I R I N G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ETS ........................................................
8
19
2 ,7 9 2
922
2 ,0 2 0
0
21
9 ,6 3 3
589
9 ,6 1 5
0
37
7 ,3 3 2
1 ,038
8,1 5 3
0
92
8 ,9 9 1
1 ,2 3 3
9 ,9 1 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .9 2
0 .1 2
0 .9 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .9 5
0.1 3
1.0 5
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT..............
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER ELE CT R IC AL MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
0
61
176
3 69
15,377
0
131
396
612
17,589
0
231
693
1,109
33,539
0
280
891
1 ,3 7 5
37,5 97
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 8
0 .1 2
3 .9 9
0 .0 0
0.0 3
0 .0 9
0 .1 5
3 .9 8
89.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A F T .......................................................................................................
S H I P AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R ..................................
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . .
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT....................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS....................
99
192
16 0
627
270
90
292
396
2 ,0 1 9
996
20 0
6 99
76 3
5 ,8 2 5
628
25 0
807
9 56
6 .8 1 9
793
0 .0 2
0 .0 6
0 .0 7
0 .9 0
0 .0 9
0 .0 3
0 .0 9
0 .1 0
0 .7 2
0 .0 8
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUMENTS .........................................
OPT ICAL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION.............................................................
132
236
396
3 ,2 9 8
2,0 2 9
169
35 2
619
5 ,1 0 0
2 ,3 8 0
2 25
593
1,116
7 ,8 9 6
3 ,8 0 6
27 9
62 9
1,3 8 8
9 ,5 3 1
9 ,3 6 7
0 .0 3
0 .0 7
0 .1 2
1.0 1
0 .9 7
0 .0 3
0 .0 7
0 .1 5
1 .0 1
0 .9 6
99.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL TR A NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
HATER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
A IR T RANSPORTATION...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION .....................................................................
2 ,2 7 2
2 ,9 2 3
595
1 ,2 8 6
22 8
1 ,9 7 2
3 ,0 7 8
961
3,>012
329
2,0 9 1
9,7 6 6
1 ,8 7 1
6 ,3 7 9
50 9
2 ,0 6 2
5 ,5 3 0
2 ,1 9 9
8 ,2 2 1
611
0 .3 9
0 .6 1
0 .1 9
0 .6 0
0 .0 6
0 .2 2
0 .5 9
0 .2 3
0 .8 7
0 .0 6
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................
ELE CTR IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
HATER AND SANITARY S E R V IC E S ..................................................
5 ,5 9 0
0
6 ,0 5 3
3,7 9 9
1 ,5 0 2
9 ,8 5 9
0
9 ,9 0 3
9 ,8 9 2
1 ,7 9 0
20,093
0
15,919
7 ,0 2 3
2 ,1 7 9
26,7 36
0
1 8,650
8 ,3 1 5
2 ,2 9 8
1.9 5
0 .0 0
1 .8 7
0 .9 6
0 .3 6
2.8 3
0 .0 0
1.9 7
0.8 8
0 .2 9
109.
105.
106.
107.
108.
HHOLESALE TRADE ...................................................................................
R E T A I L TRADE............................................................................................
F I N A N C E .........................................................................................................
INSURANCE ................................. .................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS ..........................................................
2 0,0 29
6 0,6 75
8 ,9 2 9
7 ,9 9 9
38,7 26
27,613
8 1,969
12,060
10,363
52,672
9 9,7 50
127,550
21,121
1 6,550
83,382
52,3 28
197,893
2 5,2 79
1 9,9 73
1 03,297
5 .9 8
16.26
2 .3 9
2 .0 6
10.9 5
5 .5 9
15.65
2 .6 8
2.0 6
10.93
109.
OTHER REAL E ST A TE ..............................................................................
111.
112.
1 13.
OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI C E S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E B V I C E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS I N G ..............................................................................................
1 5,1 30
1 ,8 8 3
9 ,9 5 7
9 77
120
22,698
2,661
1 0,988
1,072
206
37,216
9,0 9 3
1 9,853
1 ,8 9 0
907
9 5,9 25
9 ,8 7 9
1 6,3 39
2 ,2 6 9
991
9 .9 9
0 .5 3
2 .1 8
0.2 1
0 .0 9
9 .8 6
0 .5 2
1 .7 3
0 .2 9
0 .0 5
119.
115.
1 16 .
117.
118.
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL SER VIC ES ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ..............................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
2 ,3 7 0
6 ,6 9 2
9 92
3 ,6 7 9
1 0,9 98
2 ,7 8 2
7 ,8 8 3
689
9,1 9 6
19,669
3,721
11,293
592
6 ,2 9 8
2 5,5 95
9 ,1 2 0
1 2,9 86
521
7 ,0 7 9
30,5 89
0 .5 5
1.5 6
0 .1 9
0 .8 2
2.9 1
0 .9 9
1.3 2
0.0 6
0 .7 5
3 .2 9
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
H O S PI TA L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S E R V IC E S .....................................................................
NONPROFIT O RG AN IZ AT IO NS .............................................................
POST O P P IC E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY CR ED IT CORPORATION...............................................
6 ,6 8 6
9 ,9 1 9
7 . 239
882
0
10,737
6 ,5 2 8
9,531
1 ,1 2 0
0
2 0,5 95
9,5 9 6
1 9,905
1 ,7 2 1
0
2 6 ,9 86
1 1,3 00
1 7,0 99
1,9 8 9
0
2 .1 3
1.2 9
1.8 9
0 .2 2
0 .0 0
2.8 6
1 .2 C
1.8 1
0.2 1
0.0 0
129.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL ENTE RP RISE S........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ENTE RP RISE S ....................
DIR E CT LY ALLOCATED IMP ORT S.....................................................
TRANSFERRED IMP O RT S ........................................................................
BDSINESS T RA V EL , EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............
6
638
6,0 0 3
0
0
0
92 8
1 2,779
0
0
0
1,3 9 7
27,399
0
0
0
1 ,62 0
3 2,3 96
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .1 8
2 .5 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 7
3 .9 2
0.0 0
0.0 0
129.
1 30.
131.
132.
133.
O FFI CE S U P P L I E S ...................................................................................
SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS.....................................
GOVERNMENT I N DU S TR Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IND US TR Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
0
-291
0
0
3 ,8 2 2
0
-2 2 3
0
0
3 ,1 9 9
0
-232
0
0
2 ,6 8 9
0
-312
0
0
2 ,3 2 1
0 .0 0
-0 .0 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .6 3
0 .0 0
-0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .2 5
139.
INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT..........................................
T O TA L ...............................................................................................................
0
3 75 ,59 5
0
5 09,119
0
7 99,710
0
9 99 ,56 0
0 .0 0
100 .00
0 .0 0
100.00
1 1 0 . HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................
165
TABLE B-6: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES FOR DURABLE GOODS, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
(PRODUCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS CF 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
196 3
1.
2.
3.
9.
5.
LIVESTOCK AND LIV ESTOCK PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................
AGR ICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHER Y S E R V I C E S . . .
IRON ORE M I N I N G ...................................................................................
0
C
6.
7.
8.
9.
10 .
1970
1980
1985
PERCENT
1970
DISTRIBUTION
198 5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
c
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
COPPER ORE M I N I N G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G ................................. .
COAL M I N I N G ..............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM...................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY MININ G AND QUARRYING............................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
11.
12.
13.
1<t.
15 .
CHEMICAL AND F E R T I L I Z E R M I N I N G ..........................................
NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION......................
NEW NO NR E S ID E NT IA L B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION..............
NEW P U B L I C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION.................................
NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION..........................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.0 0
0 .0 0
16.
17.
18 .
19.
20.
ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION.....................................................
MAINTENANCE AND RE PAI R CONSTRUCTION............................
GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
0
0
0
76
0
0
0
0
119
0
0
0
0
262
0
0
0
0
32 8
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.1 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.1 9
0 .0 0
21.
22.
23.
29.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING...................................................................
F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD M I L 1 S ..........................................
MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R I N G S . . . .
HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS................................................................
APPAREL.........................................................................................................
0
96
959
0
-1
0
56
1,951
0
0
0
95
2 ,9 8 5
0
0
0
110
2 ,8 7 0
0
0
0.0 0
0 .0 7
1 .80
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 6
1.6 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED T E X T I L E PRODUCTS............
LOGGING, SA W MI LLS , AND PLA NING M I L L S .........................
MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S . . . .
HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................
OTHER FU R N IT U R E ...................................................................................
21 9
0
168
3 ,0 2 9
133
355
0
251
3 ,6 1 6
201
6 56
0
905
5 ,8 0 9
3 93
79 3
0
967
6 ,5 5 8
396
0 .9 9
0 .0 0
0.3 1
9 .9 9
0 .2 5
0 .9 7
0.0 0
0 .2 7
3 .8 5
0 .2 3
31.
32.
33.
39.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................
P U B L I S H I N G .................................................................................................
P R I N T I N G .......................................................................................................
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS..............................................................................
0
0
93 6
27
89
0
0
1 ,9 0 9
92
153
0
0
2 ,2 7 9
71
285
0
0
2,731
82
357
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1.7 9
0 .0 5
0 .1 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 .6 0
0 .0 5
0 .2 1
36.
37.
38.
39.
90.
AGRICULTURAL CHE MI CA LS ................................................................
P LA S TI C MAT ER IAL S AAD SYN THETIC RUBBER....................
SYNTHETIC F I B E R S ................................................................................
DRUGS...............................................................................................................
CLEANING AND T O I L E T PRE PARA TIO NS ....................................
0
0
0
0
23
0
0
0
0
92
0
0
0
0
78
0
0
0
0
97
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.0 6
91.
92.
93.
99.
95.
P A I N T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS...................................................................................
P L A S T I C PRODUCTS................................................................................
LEA THER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
0
0
1 ,2 6 1
191
65
0
0
2 ,3 1 2
39 5
1 05
0
0
9 ,3 3 6
502
199
0
0
5 ,9 1 2
58 2
236
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
2 .8 7
0 .9 9
0 .1 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
3 .1 8
0 .3 9
0 .1 9
96.
97.
98.
99.
50.
GLAS S...............................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND B AS IC STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
228
2
112
0
0
22 0
3
157
0
0
21 7
5
178
0
0
251
6
20 5
0
0
0 .2 7
0 .0 0
0 .2 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 5
0 .0 0
0.1 2
0.0 0
0 .0 0
51.
52.
53.
59.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS...................................................................
PRIMARY ALUMINUM................................................................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L . .
COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING.....................................................
ALUMINUM ROL LING AND DRAWING...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0.0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING.........................
MISCELLANEOUS NCNFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL CONTA INE RS .................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S .................
FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL..................................................
3
9
0
73
15
3
12
0
55
23
9
9
0
88
39
5
11
0
107
95
0 .0 0
0.0 1
0 .0 0
0.0 7
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 6
0 .0 3
61.
62.
63.
69.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
EN G IN ES , T U R B I N E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARH MACHINERY......................................................................................
CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MA CH IN E RY ..
292
3 36
125
10
0
22 3
5 12
229
16
0
168
785
50 5
28
0
195
918
633
32
0
0 .2 8
0 .6 9
0 .2 8
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .1 1
0 .5 9
0 .3 7
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
66.
67.
68.
MAT ER IAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT..................................................
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.....................................................
0
77
21
0
117
29
0
201
91
0
231
97
0 .0 0
0.1 5
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0.1 9
0 03
\J
166
T iB L E 8 - 6 : IN D U S T R IA L CO M PO SITIO N OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
1 9 6 .4 , t 9 7 0 AND PT5TTJECTEIL. 1 9& 0 A N il t » 8
NtTEC"' ' “
(^ftO DUCreSS*: VALUE- I N MT1 T.TONS OF
D X IL i*5 9 +
FOR ftHSABLi GP.OOS,
—
IN D U S TR Y CODE
1963
1970
198 0
1985
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L M ACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS..................................................................
COMPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L EQUIPM ENT...............................
TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES.......................
SER VIC E INDUSTRY M A CHINE S .......................................................
0
2
0
88
336
0
0
0
1 40
5 76
0
0
0
240
964
0
0
0
2 76
1 ,1 7 4
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 7
0 .7 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 6
0 .6 9
74.
75.
75.
77.
78.
E LE C TR IC TR A N S M IS S IO N EQ U IP M E N T......................................
E L E C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L A PFARATDS......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S .....................................................................
E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND S IR IN G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S .......................................................
0
14
2 ,6 1 1
207
2 ,0 2 0
0
21
4 ,3 6 8
322
4 ,6 1 5
0
37
6 ,8 5 6
5 60
8 ,1 5 3
0
42
8 ,3 1 6
656
9 ,9 1 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
5 .4 3
0 .4 0
5 .7 3
C .0 0
0 .0 2
4 .8 8
0 .3 9
5 .8 2
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELE C TR O N IC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT..............
E LECTR O N IC COMPONENTS..................................................................
OTHER E L E C T R IC A L MACHINERY....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S .....................................................................................
0
61
1 76
317
1 5 ,3 7 7
0
131
396
552
1 7 ,5 8 4
0
231
693
1 ,0 0 1
3 3 ,5 3 4
0
280
8 41
1 ,2 4 5
3 7 ,5 9 7
0 .0 0
0 .1 6
0 .4 9
0 .6 9
2 1 .8 5
0 .0 0
0 .1 6
0 .4 9
0 .7 3
2 2 .0 8
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A F T ......................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT E U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR .................................
RAILR OAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ...
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPM ENT...................
S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS....................
49
192
1 60
627
2 63
90
292
346
2 ,0 1 4
4 41
200
644
763
5 ,8 2 5
618
250
8 07
956
6 ,8 1 4
731
0 .1 1
0 .3 6
0 .4 3
2 .5 0
0 .5 5
0 . 15
0 .4 7
0 .5 6
4 .0 0
0 .4 3
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S T R U M E N T S .......................................
O P T IC A L AND O PHTHALM IC EQ U IPM ENT....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
R A ILR O A D TRA N S P O R TATIO N .............................................................
53
236
142
1 ,7 7 6
419
64
352
263
2 .8 1 1
639
88
5 43
579
4 ,4 0 4
1 ,1 6 4
102
62 9
667
5 ,3 2 8
1 ,3 5 7
0 .0 8
0 .4 4
0 .3 3
3 .4 9
0 .7 9
0 .0 6
0 .3 7
0 .3 9
3 .1 3
0 .8 0
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y EDS.......................................
TRUCK TR A N S P O R TATIO N .....................................................................
WATER TR A N S P O R TATIO N .....................................................................
A IR TR A N S P O R TATIO N ..........................................................................
OTHER TRA NS P O R TATIO N....................................................................
C
456
52
11
8
0
693
125
18
9
0
1 ,2 7 3
313
45
14
0
1 ,4 8 2
354
57
17
0 .0 0
0 .8 6
0 .1 6
0 .0 2
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .8 7
0 .2 1
0 .0 3
0 .0 1
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
C O M M UNICA TIO N S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BRO ADCASTING .......................................................
E LE C TR IC U T I L I T I E S ..........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................................
WATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S .................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE TR A D E ...................................................................................
R E T A IL TR A D E ...........................................................................................
F IN A N C E .........................................................................................................
IN S U R A N C E ...................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED D W ELLIN G S ..........................................................
2 ,9 5 2
1 5 ,0 3 8
0
3
0
5 ,0 7 5
2 2 ,5 8 2
0
10
0
9 ,3 7 4
3 8 ,9 6 0
0
29
0
1 1 ,0 8 4
4 5 ,5 2 3
0
32
0
6 .3 1
2 8 .0 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
6 .5 1
2 6 .7 4
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
OTHER REAL E S T A T E .............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING P LACES.......................................................
OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUS IN ES S S ER VIC E 'S ......................................
A D V E R T IS IN G ..............................................................................................
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
114.
115.
116.
1 17.
1 18.
MISCELLANEOUS PRO FESSIO N AL S E R V IC E S ............................
AUTO MO BILE R E P A IR .............................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHEB AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH S ER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
H O S P IT A L S ............................................. .......................................... ..
NO NPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S .............................................................
POST O F F IC E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY C R E D IT CORPORATION...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 -0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S .......................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R ISE S ....................
D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS ....................................................
TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S .......................................................................
BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............
0
0
905
0
0
0
0
3 ,9 7 8
0
0
0
0
8 ,6 7 1
0
0
0
0
1 0 ,1 7 2
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
4 .9 4
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
5 .9 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ...................................................................................
SCRAP, DSED AND SECONDHAND GOODS....................................
GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y .......................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
0
-1 4 0
0
0
0
0
-1 2 2
0
0
0
0
-1 1 8
0
0
0
0
-1 5 3
0
0
0
0 .0 0
-0 .1 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
-0 .0 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
134.
INVENTORY V A LD A TIO N ADJUSTMENT.........................................
T O T A L ...............................................................................................................
0
5 2 ,8 2 0
0
8 0 ,4 8 1
0
1 4 5 ,7 2 1
0
1 7 0 ,2 5 7
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
EDUCATIONAL
S E R V I C E S .....................................................................................
0
16 7
TABLE B-7: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES FOR NONDURABLE GOODS, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
(PRODUCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS CF 1963 DOLLARS)
1963
IN D U S TR Y CODE
1970
1980
1985
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
LIV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER AGR IC U LTU R A L PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................
A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RESTRY, AND FIS H ER Y S E R V IC E S ...
IR O N ORE M IN IN G ...................................................................................
1 ,6 4 9
2 ,8 6 7
419
15
0
1 ,5 9 1
3 ,0 5 3
5 53
24
0
1 ,8 4 0
4 ,1 8 9
739
46
0
2 ,0 5 1
4 ,8 5 4
849
58
0
0 .7 5
1 .4 3
0 .2 6
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .5 6
1 .3 4
0 .2 3
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE M IN IN G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G ......... ....................
COAL M IN IN G ...............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM.............................................................................. ..
STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND Q UARRYING............................
0
0
1 65
0
15
0
0
1 57
0
17
0
0
1 08
0
33
0
0
39
0
40
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
CHE M ICA L AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G ..........................................
NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUCTION.......................
NEW N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION..............
NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION..................................
NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TION...........................................................
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
A LL OTHER NEW CO NSTRUC TIO N.....................................................
MAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CO NSTRUCTION............................
G UIDED M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
0
0
0
105
4 9 ,5 1 8
0
0
0
1 48
5 9 ,6 5 0
0
0
0
221
7 8 ,4 7 0
0
0
0
271
8 8 ,5 3 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 7
2 8 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 7
2 4 .3 7
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING ...................................................................
F A B R IC , Y AR N, AND THREAD M IL L S ..........................................
M ISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S ....
HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................
A PP A R E L..........................................................................................................
4 ,9 4 1
563
57
821
1 2 ,7 1 6
5 ,0 7 4
754
55
1 ,4 7 9
1 4 ,5 2 0
6 ,2 3 6
1 ,1 1 3
101
2 ,2 2 7
2 0 ,7 4 3
6 ,3 6 7
1 ,2 5 8
121
2 ,4 6 6
2 2 ,9 4 6
2 .3 8
0 .3 5
0 .0 3
0 .6 9
6 .8 2
1 .7 5
0 .3 5
0 .0 3
0 .6 8
6 .3 2
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS...........
LO G G IN G , S A W M ILL S , AND P LA N IN G M IL L S ..........................
M ILLW O R K, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS____
HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................
OTHER F U R N IT U R E .............................................................................. ....
1 ,2 6 8
62
0
0
0
1 ,9 7 2
66
0
0
0
3 ,0 1 2
60
0
0
0
3 ,5 8 3
59
0
0
0
0 .9 3
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .9 9
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................
P U B L IS H IN G ............................................................................................ ...
P R IN T IN G .......................................................................................................
C HEM ICAL PRODUCTS..............................................................................
1 ,2 4 1
74
1 ,7 9 6
397
266
1 ,5 0 9
1 05
2 ,1 3 1
475
387
2 ,9 1 7
2 07
2 ,8 7 0
999
640
3 ,5 0 2
248
3 ,2 1 3
1 ,2 0 1
755
0 .7 1
0 .0 5
1 .0 0
0 .2 2
0 .1 8
0 .9 6
0 .0 7
0 .8 8
0 .3 3
0 .2 1
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
AGR IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ...............................................................
P L A S T IC M A TE R IA LS AND S Y N TH E TIC RUBBER....................
S Y N TH E TIC F IB E R S ........................................................................... .. .
DRUGS............................................................................................................ ..
C LE A N IN G AND T O IL E T P R E P A R A TIO N S ....................................
45
12
0
1 ,9 8 2
3 ,3 9 1
0
19
(
3 ,2 8 9
5 ,8 5 4
1 14
28
0
5 ,8 9 4
1 1 ,3 4 1
1 36
34
0
7 ,4 0 6
1 4 ,4 0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
1 .5 4
2 .7 5
0 .0 4
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
2 .0 4
3 .9 6
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
P A IN T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS....................................................................................
P L A S T IC PRODUCTS.................................................................................
LE A T H E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
23
8 .2 2 8
444
17
2 ,9 5 7
19
1 1 ,3 4 1
560
27
3 ,1 6 8
38
1 7 .5 1 6
1 ,0 5 0
35
3 ,9 1 0
45
2 1 ,1 4 9
1 .1 7 1
38
4 ,2 8 4
0 .0 1
5 .3 3
0 .2 6
0 .0 1
1 .4 9
0 .0 1
5 .8 2
0 .3 2
0 .0 1
1 .1 8
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
G LA S S ...............................................................................................................
M ISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
B LAST FURNACES AND B A S IC S TEE L PRODUCTS.................
IRO N AND S TEE L FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
11
0
44
9
0
15
0
54
16
0
24
0
107
25
0
28
0
1 28
28
0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 4
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER M ETALS...................................................................
PRIMARY A LU M IN U M .................................................................................
OTHER PRIM ARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L ..
COPPER R O L LIN G AND DRAWING.....................................................
ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS R O LLIN G AND DRAWING..........................
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL C O N TA IN E R S .................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S .................
F A B R IC A TE D STRUCTURAL M ETAL..................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER F A B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS................. ................
FARM M ACHINERY......................................................................................
CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y ..
24
235
0
0
0
37
316
0
0
0
58
602
0
0
0
69
7 81
0
0
0
0 .0 2
0 .1 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .2 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
66.
67.
68.
M A TE R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP M E N T..................................................
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
S P E C IA L INDUSTRY M ACHINERY.....................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
CEMENT,
CLAY,
AND
CONCRETE
P R O D U C T S ........... .......................
16 8
TABLE B-7: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES FOR NONDURABLE GOODS,
1963, 197B AND'PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985^-CONTINUED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
IN D U S TR Y CODE
1970
1963
1980
1985
PERCENT
1970
D IS T R IB U T IO N
1985
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
COMPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L EQUIPM ENT...............................
TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E M ACHINES.......................
SER VIC E IN D U S TR Y M A C H IN E S .......................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
E LE C TR IC TR A N S M IS SIO N E Q U IP M E N T.......................................
E LE C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS.......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S .....................................................................
E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND W IR IN G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................
8
0
1 32
215
0
0
0
265
267
0
0
0
476
478
0
0
0
6 25
5 77
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 2
0 .1 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 7
0 .1 6
0 .0 0
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELE C TR O N IC COMMUNICATION EQ U IPM ENT..............
ELECTR ON IC COMPONENTS..................................................................
OTHER E L E C T R IC A L MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
0
0
0
52
0
0
0
0
60
0
0
0
0
108
0
0
0
0
1 30
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 4
0 .0 0
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A F T ......................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR ..................................
RA ILR O A D AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ...
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQ U IPM ENT....................
S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS....................
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
0
12
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
M EDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M EN TS ..........................................
O P T IC A L AND OPHTHALM IC EQ U IPM ENT....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRA NS P O R TATIO N.............................................................
79
0
204
1 ,5 2 2
1 ,1 6 3
1 00
0
356
2 ,2 8 9
1 ,4 2 1
1 37
0
5 37
3 ,4 4 2
2 ,0 1 6
172
0
721
4 ,2 0 3
2 ,2 9 4
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
0 .1 7
1 .0 7
0 .6 7
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
0 .2 0
1 .1 6
0 .6 3
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPOR TATIO N.....................................................................
WATER TRA NS P O R TATIO N.....................................................................
A IR TRA N S P O R TATIO N ..........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPO R TATIO N.....................................................................
0
1 ,5 7 2
424
48
210
0
1 ,9 2 9
648
97
2 99
0
2 ,8 0 6
1 ,2 4 9
236
475
0
3 ,2 5 8
1 ,4 5 4
270
579
0 .0 0
0 .9 1
0 .3 0
0 .0 5
0 .1 4
0 .0 0
0 .9 0
0 .4 0
0 .0 7
0 .1 6
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
CO M M UNICATIO N S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BRO ADCASTING .......................................................
E LE C T R IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
WATER AND S A N ITA R Y S E R V IC B S ..................................................
0
0
0
0
31
0
0
0
0
48
0
0
0
0
65
0
0
0
0
63
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE TR A D E ...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE...........................................................................................
F IN A N C E .................................. ......................................................................
IN S U R A N C E ....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED D W ELLIN G S ..........................................................
1 7 ,0 4 5
4 5 ,5 7 6
0
5
0
2 2 .5 2 1
5 9 ,3 0 9
0
13
0
3 5 ,3 4 6
8 8 ,4 8 0
0
33
0
4 1 ,2 0 8
1 0 2 ,1 8 8
0
36
0
1 0 .5 7
2 7 .8 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
1 1 .3 4
2 8 .1 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
109.
110.
111.
1 12.
113.
OTHER REAL E S T A T E .............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S ........................................................
OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS B U S IN ES S S E R V IC E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS IN G ..............................................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
MISCELLANEOUS PRO FESSIONAL S E R V IC B S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR .............................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH S ER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
HOSPITALS........................................
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S .............................................................
POST O F F IC E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY C R E D IT CORPORATION...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL E N TE R P R IS E S ........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S ....................
D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS .....................................................
TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................
BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............
6
0
2 ,6 4 3
0
0
0
0
5 ,0 0 5
0
0
0
0
1 1 ,8 0 7
0
0
0
0
1 3 ,4 4 7
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
2 .3 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
3 .7 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ...................................................................................
SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS....................................
GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
0
-6 0
0
0
0
0
-1 0 1
0
0
0
0
-3 7
0
0
0
0
-5 0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
-0 .0 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
-0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
134.
INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N ADJUSTM ENT..........................................
T O T A L ,............................................................................................................
0
1 6 7 ,2 6 1
0
2 1 2 ,9 6 6
0
3 1 5 ,1 7 7
0
3 6 3 ,3 0 1
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
EDUCATIONAL
S E R V I C E S .....................................................................................
16 9
TABLB B-8: INDUSTRIAL COHPOSITION OF PERSONAL CONSUHPTION EXPENDITURES FOB SERVICES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
(PRODUCERS' VALUE IN BILLIONS-OF 1963 DOLLARS)
___________________________________________________
IN D U S TR Y CODE
1963
1970
1980
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
1985
1.
2.
3.
9.
5.
L IV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTBEB AG R IC ULTURAL PBODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S .............................................................
AG BICULTU B E , FO RESTRY, AND FIS H E R Y S E R V I C E S .. .
IR O N ORB H IR IN G ....................................................................................
1 13
0
0
0
0
1 79
0
0
0
0
329
0
0
0
0
9 09
0
0
0
0
0 .0 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE H IN IN G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERBOUS HETAL ORE H IN IN G ..................................
COAL H IN IN G ...............................................................................................
CRUDE P ETE O LEUH...................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY H IN IN G AND Q UARRYING............................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
11.
12.
13.
19.
15.
C Q E H IC & L AND F E R T IL IZ E R H IN IN G ..........................................
NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B O L ID IN G CO NSTRUC TION.......................
NEW N O N B E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION..............
NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION..................................
NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TIO N...........................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
A L L OTHER NEW C C N STR UCTIO N.....................................................
HAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CO NSTRUCTION............................
GUIDED H IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
21.
22.
23.
29.
25.
TOBACCO HA NUFA CTU RING ...................................................................
F A B R IC , Y AR N, AND THREAD H I L L S ..........................................
H IS CE LLA NEO US T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S ....
HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................
A P P A R E L..........................................................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
HIS CE LLA NEO US F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL B PBODUCTS............
L O G G IN G , S A W H IL L S , AND P LA N IN G H IL L S ..........................
H IL LW O E K , PLYWOOD, AND OTHEB HOOD P R O D U C T S ....
HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................
OTHER F U R N IT U R E ...................................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
31.
32.
33.
39.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD..................................................................................................
P U B L IS H IN G ..................................................................................................
P R IN T IN G .......................................................................................................
C H E H IC A L PRODUCTS..............................................................................
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
36.
37.
38.
39.
90.
A G R IC ULTURAL C H E H IC A L S ................................................................
P L A S T IC H A T E R IA L S AND S Y N T H E T IC RUBBER....................
S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S .................................................................................
DRUGS................................................................................................................
C LE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S .....................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
91.
92.
93.
99.
95.
P A IN T ................................................................................................................
PETROLEUH PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS....................................................................................
P L A S T IC PRODUCTS.................................................................................
L E A TH E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
96.
97.
98.
99.
50.
G LA S S ...............................................................................................................
CEHENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PBODUCTS.............................
HISCELLANEO US STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC S TEE L PBODUCTS.................
IRO N AND S TEE L FOUNDRIES AND FCE G ING S .......................
0
0
59
0
0
0
0
65
0
0
0
0
83
0
0
0
0
89
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
51.
52.
53.
59.
55.
P R IHARY COPPER H E T A LS ...................................................................
PR IH A BY A L U H IN U H .................................................................................
OTHER P R IH A R Y AND SECONDARY NONFEBEOUS H E T A L ..
COPPER B O L L IN G AND DBAW ING.....................................................
A LU H IN U H R O L LIN G AND DBAW ING ...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS B O L L IN G AND DBAWING..........................
HISCELLANEO US NCNFEEBOUS HETAL PBODUCTS.................
HETAL C O N TA IN E R S .................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND P LU H BIN G F IX T U R E S .................
FA B H IC A TE D STRUCTURAL H E T A L ..................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
61.
62.
63.
69.
65.
SCBEW M ACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHEB FA B R IC A T E D HETAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARH H A C H IN E R Y ......................................................................................
C O NSTRUC TIO N , H IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D H A C H IN E R Y ..
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
66.
67.
68.
H A T E R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP H E N T ..................................................
METALWORKING H A C H IN E R Y ................................................................
S P E C IA L IN D U S TR Y HA C H IN E R Y .....................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
17 0
.
TA BLE B - 8 : IN D U S T R IA L C O H P O S ITIO N OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
1 9 6 3 ,. 19-7-0 AN» -PSQJSCTED .1 9 0 0 AND 1 9 8 5 -^ C Q N T IN U E D
CPBODUC%a,S’ VALUE i N B IL L IO N S QC 19 63 DOLLARS)
IN D U S TR Y CODE
E XPENDITUR ES
1963
FOR S E R V IC E S ,
1970
1980
1985
PERCENT
1970
D IS T R IB U T IO N
1985
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L H A C H IN E R Y ...............................................
HACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS..................................................................
COMPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L E Q U IPM ENT...............................
TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES.......................
SER VIC E INDUSTRY M A CHINE S ........................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
E LE C T R IC TR A N S M IS S IO N E Q U IP M E N T.......................................
E L E C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS.......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ......................................................................
E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND H IR IN G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
CTHBR ELECTR O N IC COMMUNICATION EQU IPM ENT..............
E LE C TR O N IC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER E L E C T R IC A L MACHINERY.................................... ............
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
89.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A F T ......................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR ..................................
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ...
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATIO N EQ U IP M E N T....................
S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS....................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M EN T S ..........................................
O P T IC A L AND O PH THALM IC EQ U IP M E N T....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
R AILR O AD TRANSPO R TATIO N.............................................................
0
0
0
0
447
0
0
0
0
320
0
0
0
0
626
0
0
0
0
716
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 7
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TR A N S P O R TATIO N .....................................................................
HATER TRA NS P O R TATIO N.....................................................................
A IR TRA NS P O R TATIO N...........................................................................
OTHER TR A N S P O R TATIO N .....................................................................
2 ,2 7 2
395
119
1 ,2 2 6
10
1 ,9 7 2
456
188
2 ,8 9 7
16
2 ,0 9 1
687
309
6 ,0 9 3
15
2 ,0 6 2
790
386
7 ,8 9 4
15
0 .9 4
0 .2 2
0 .0 9
1 .3 8
0 .0 1
0 .5 0
0 .1 9
0 .0 9
1 .9 2
0 .0 0
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
CO M M UNICATION S, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV B RO ADCASTING ........................................................
E LE C TR IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
HATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S ..................................................
5 ,5 4 0
0
6 ,0 5 3
3 ,7 9 9
1 ,4 7 1
9 ,8 5 4
0
9 ,4 0 3
4 ,8 4 2
1 ,7 4 2
2 0 ,0 9 3
0
1 5 ,4 1 9
7 ,0 2 3
2 ,1 1 4
2 6 ,7 3 6
0
1 8 ,6 5 0
8 ,3 1 5
2 ,2 3 5
4 .6 8
0 .0 0
4 .4 6
2 .3 0
0 .8 3
6 .5 1
0 .0 0
4 .5 4
2 .0 2
0 .5 4
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE TR A D E ...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE...........................................................................................
F IN A N C E .........................................................................................................
IN S U R A N C E ....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED D W E L L IN G S .......................................................
26
60
8 ,9 2 9
7 ,9 3 6
3 8 ,7 2 6
17
73
1 2 ,0 6 0
1 0 ,3 4 0
5 2 ,6 7 2
30
110
2 1 ,1 2 1
1 6 ,4 8 8
8 3 ,3 8 2
36
1 32
2 5 ,2 7 4
1 9 ,4 0 5
1 0 3 .2 4 7
0 .0 1
0 .0 3
5 .7 2
4 .9 1
2 5 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 3
6 .1 5
4 .7 2
2 5 .1 2
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
OTHER REAL E S T A T E ..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S ........................................................
OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS B U S IN ES S S E R V IC E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS IN G ..............................................................................................
1 5 ,1 3 0
1 ,8 8 3
9 ,9 5 2
477
120
2 2 ,6 4 8
2 ,6 6 1
1 0 ,9 8 8
1 ,0 7 2
206
3 7 ,2 1 6
4 ,0 4 3
1 4 ,8 5 3
1 ,8 9 0
4 07
4 5 ,9 2 5
4 ,8 7 9
1 6 ,3 3 9
2 ,2 6 4
491
1 0 .7 5
1 .2 6
5 .2 2
0 .5 1
0 .1 0
1 1 .1 7
1 .1 9
3 .9 8
0 .5 5
0 .1 2
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
MISCELLANEOUS P RO FES S IO N AL S E R V IC E S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR ..............................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SER VICE S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
2 ,3 7 0
6 ,6 9 2
942
3 ,6 7 4
1 0 ,9 9 8
2 ,7 8 2
7 ,8 8 3
689
4 ,1 4 6
1 4 ,6 6 4
3 ,7 2 1
1 1 ,2 4 3
592
6 ,2 4 8
2 5 ,5 4 5
4 ,1 2 0
1 2 ,4 8 6
521
7 ,0 7 9
3 0 ,5 8 4
1 .3 2
3 .7 4
0 .3 3
1 .9 7
6 .9 6
1 .0 0
3 .0 4
0 .1 3
1 .7 2
7 .4 4
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S ......................................................................
NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S .............................................................
POST O F F IC E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY C R E D IT CO RPO RATIO N...............................................
6 ,6 8 6
4 ,4 1 4
7 ,2 3 4
882
0
1 0 .7 3 7
6 ,5 2 8
9 ,5 3 1
1 ,1 2 0
0
2 0 .5 4 5
9 ,5 4 6
1 4 ,4 0 5
1 ,7 2 1
0
2 6 .9 8 6
1 1 ,3 0 0
1 7 ,0 9 4
1 ,9 8 4
0
5 .1 0
3 .1 0
4 .5 2
0 .5 3
0 .0 0
6 .5 7
2 .7 5
4 .1 6
0 .4 8
0 .0 0
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S .......................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S ....................
D IR E C TLY ALLOCATED IM P O R TS .....................................................
TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................
BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............
0
638
2 ,4 5 5
0
0
0
928
3 ,7 9 6
0
0
0
1 ,3 4 7
6 ,8 6 6
0
0
0
1 ,6 2 0
8 ,7 2 7
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .4 4
1 .8 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .3 9
2 .1 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ...................................................................................
SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS....................................
GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
0
-4 1
0
0
3 ,8 2 2
0
0
0
0
3 ,1 9 4
0
-7 7
0
0
2 ,6 8 4
0
-1 0 9
0
0
2 ,3 2 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 .5 2
0 .0 0
-0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .5 6
134.
INVENTORY V A LU A TIO N A DJUSTM ENT.........................................
T O T A L ...............................................................................................................
0
1 5 5 ,5 1 2
0
2 1 0 ,6 6 7
0
3 3 8 ,8 1 2
0
4 1 1 ,0 0 2
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
17 1
TABLE B- 9 :INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OP GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
(PEODOCEES1 VALUE IN MILLIONS CP 1963 DOLLAES)
.............................
IN D U S TR Y CODE
---
— — ......................
. ....... ...........................
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
1963
1970
618
966
74
0
-9 2
759
1 ,1 8 4
90
0
-1 1 2
7 31
1 ,1 3 8
87
0
-1 0 8
0 .5 7
0 .9 0
0 .0 7
0 .0 0
-0 .0 9
0 .3 3
0 .5 1
0 .0 4
0 .0 0
-0 .0 5
1980
1985
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
LIV E S T O C K AND L IV E S T O C K PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER AGR IC U LTU R A L PRODUCTS.......................
PORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................
A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RESTRY, AND FIS H ER Y S E R V IC E S ...
IRO N ORE M IN IN G ...................................................................................
374
584
44
0
-5 5
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE M IN IN G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFBRROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G ..................................
COAL M IN IN G ..............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM...................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND Q UARRYING ............................
-3
-1
0
16
1
-4
-1
0
26
3
-6
0
0
32
2
-6
0
0
31
2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
CHE M ICA L AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G ..........................................
NES R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUCTION.......................
NEV N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUC TION..............
NEH P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION..................................
NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TIO N..........................................................
-1
2 6 ,1 8 7
1 1 ,6 4 4
4 ,6 6 7
0
-1
2 4 ,0 5 5
1 4 ,9 8 6
8 ,0 2 6
0
0
4 0 ,4 3 3
2 3 ,9 4 8
1 5 ,9 2 5
0
0
4 8 ,0 6 3
2 8 ,6 6 2
1 8 ,3 9 1
0
0 .0 0
2 2 .3 8
1 3 .9 4
7 .4 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
2 1 .3 8
1 2 .7 5
8 .1 8
0 .0 0
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
A L L OTHER NEH CO NSTRDCTION.....................................................
MAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CO NSTRUCTION............................
G UIDED M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
3 ,6 5 3
0
-2 4
-3
583
2 ,7 9 8
0
-3 9
-4
965
2 ,4 8 5
0
-4 8
-5
1 ,1 8 2
2 ,3 9 7
0
-4 6
-5
1 ,1 3 7
2 .6 0
0 .0 0
-0 .0 4
0 .0 0
0 .9 0
1 .0 7
0 .0 0
-0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .5 1
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO M A NUFACTURING ..................................................................
F A B R IC , YAR N, AND THREAD H I L L S ..........................................
M ISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S ....
HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................
A PPAREL..........................................................................................................
23
33
146
15
53
39
53
208
24
87
46
66
265
30
1 06
45
63
267
29
102
0 .0 4
0 .0 5
0 .1 9
0 .0 2
0 .0 8
0 .0 2
0 .0 3
0 .1 2
0 .0 1
0 .0 5
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............
LO G G IN G , S A W M ILL S , AND P LA N IN G H IL L S ..........................
M ILLW O R K, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WCOD P R O D U C T S ....
HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................
OTHER F U R N IT U R E ...................................................................................
40
22
46
197
1 ,1 4 1
65
36
75
278
1 ,5 0 0
80
45
97
373
2 ,4 9 0
77
44
96
387
2 ,7 5 0
0 .0 6
0 .0 3
0 .0 7
0 .2 6
1 .4 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 2
0 .0 4
0 .1 7
1 .2 2
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................
P U B L IS H IN G .................................................................................................
P R IN T IN G .......................................................................................................
CHEM ICAL PRODUCTS..............................................................................
90
33
68
41
65
148
53
112
68
1 07
181
66
1 37
84
131
1 75
64
132
81
1 26
0 .1 4
0 .0 5
0 .1 0
0 .0 6
0 .1 0
0 .0 8
0 .0 3
0 .0 6
0 .0 4
0 .0 6
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
AGR IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ................................................................
P L A S T IC M A T E R IA L S AND S YN TH E TIC RUBBER....................
S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S .................................................................................
DRUGS..............................................................................................................
CLE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S ....................................
24
13
12
97
63
40
22
21
160
1 05
48
27
24
1 96
1 28
46
26
23
189
1 24
0 .0 4
0 .0 2
0 .0 2
0 .1 5
0 .1 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 1
0 .0 1
0 .0 8
0 .0 6
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
P A IN T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS...................................................................................
P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................
LE A T H E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
39
1 77
74
49
-5 5
64
293
1 13
82
-9 2
79
359
146
1 00
-1 1 2
76
346
145
96
-1 0 8
0 .0 6
0 .2 7
0 .1 1
0 .0 8
-0 .0 9
0 .0 3
0 .1 5
0 .0 6
0 .0 4
-0 .0 5
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
G LA S S ...............................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................
M ISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC S TEE L PRODUCTS.................
IRO N AND S TEE L FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
68
21
49
96
7
1 13
35
82
159
11
139
43
1 00
194
13
134
42
96
187
13
0 .1 1
0 .0 3
0 .0 8
0 .1 5
0 .0 1
0 .0 6
0 .0 2
0 .0 4
0 .0 8
0 .0 1
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER M ETALS...................................................................
PRIMARY A LU M INUM ................................................................ ................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERBOUS M E T A L ..
COPPER P O L L IN G AND DRAW ING.....................................................
ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING...............................................
7
-9
-1 0
15
67
11
-1 4
-1 7
25
111
13
-1 8
-2 1
31
137
13
-1 7
-2 0
30
1 32
0 .0 1
-0 .0 1
-0 .0 2
0 .0 2
0 .1 0
0 .0 1
-0 .0 1
-0 .0 1
0 .0 1
0 .0 6
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS RO LLIN G AND DRAWING..........................
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL C O N TA IN E R S .................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S .................
FA B R IC ATE D STRUCTURAL M ETAL..................................................
66
7
37
16
607
1 07
12
57
26
1 ,0 1 0
1 56
14
76
32
1 ,7 1 5
1 62
14
73
31
1 ,8 8 9
0 .1 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 5
0 .0 2
0 .9 4
0 .0 7
0 .0 1
0 .0 3
0 .0 1
0 .8 4
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER F A B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARM MACHINERY................................................ , ...................................
CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y ..
56
335
415
1 ,9 4 8
1 ,8 1 2
92
507
858
3 ,1 6 4
2 ,5 1 4
1 13
715
1 ,6 6 2
5 ,1 0 7
4 ,0 7 6
1 09
784
1 ,9 5 5
5 ,9 5 2
4 ,6 4 4
0 .0 9
0 .4 7
0 .8 0
2 .9 4
2 .3 4
0 .0 5
0 .3 5
0 .8 7
2 .6 5
2 .0 7
66.
67.
68.
M A TE R IA L HANDLING EQ U IP M E NT..................................................
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
S P E C IA L IN D U S TR Y MACHINERY.....................................................
677
1 ,7 2 6
2 ,0 5 0
1 ,0 0 7
2 ,3 6 0
2 ,6 0 2
1 ,7 2 6
3 ,5 4 0
4 ,0 4 3
2 ,2 7 7
3 ,9 0 8
4 ,1 7 4
0 .9 4
2 .2 0
2 .4 2
1 .0 1
1 .7 4
1 .8 6
17 2
JAfitE B- 9:INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INV«STfl£Nf, 1 9 3 , 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985— CONTINUED
*6,
(PRODUCERS* VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
IN D U S TR Y CODE
1963
1970
1980
1985
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L M AC H IN E R Y ...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
COMPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L EQ U IPM ENT...............................
TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E M ACHINES.......................
S E R VIC E IN D U S TR Y M A C H IN E S ........................................................
1 ,9 2 9
15
1 ,3 0 6
350
1 , 169
1 ,8 6 9
26
3 ,9 8 5
630
1 ,9 5 6
3 ,0 1 9
97
9 ,3 6 5
1 ,1 0 5
3 ,6 3 1
3 ,6 9 7
59
1 3 ,1 1 2
1 ,9 0 3
9 ,2 6 2
1 .7 3
0 .0 2
3 .2 9
0 .5 9
1 .8 2
1 .6 9
0 .0 2
5 .8 3
0 .6 2
1 .9 0
7*1.
75.
76.
77.
78.
E LE C T R IC TR A N S M IS S IO N E Q U IP M E N T......................................
E LE C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS.......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S .....................................................................
E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND W IR IN G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................
1 ,2 8 2
602
3 31
82
255
1 ,3 9 8
689
939
159
906
2 ,1 6 8
1 ,3 1 3
562
269
6 26
2 ,6 6 7
1 ,9 8 7
5 59
313
660
1 .2 5
0 .6 9
0 .9 1
0 .1 9
0 .3 8
1 .1 9
0 .6 6
0 .2 5
0 .1 9
0 .2 9
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELE C TR O N IC COMMUNICATION EQ U IP M E NT..............
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER E L E C T R IC A L M ACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
895
925
87
226
6 ,2 8 2
1, 873
1 ,6 9 8
231
929
6 ,9 7 5
3 ,5 9 9
3 ,2 7 0
999
817
1 5 ,7 1 3
9 ,1 8 0
3 ,9 8 8
603
989
1 7 ,1 6 5
1 .7 9
1 .5 8
0 .2 1
0 .3 9
6 .9 9
1 .8 6
1 .7 7
0 .2 7
0 .9 9
7 .6 9
8*1.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A F T .......................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR ..................................
R A ILR O A D AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ...
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATIO N EQ U IP M E NT....................
S C IE N T IF IC AND CO NTROLLING INS TRUM ENTS ....................
788
329
979
213
937
1 ,9 9 3
5 93
1 ,7 9 7
589
591
9 ,7 8 7
1 ,2 2 6
3 ,0 9 0
1 ,1 5 3
769
6 ,0 9 3
1 ,3 5 7
3 ,1 9 7
1 ,9 9 1
838
1 .8 1
0 .5 1
1 .6 3
0 .5 5
0 .5 5
2 .7 1
0 .6 0
1 .9 2
0 .6 6
0 .3 7
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M E N T S ..........................................
O P T IC A L AND O PHTHALM IC E Q U IP M E N T....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILR OAD TRA N S P O R TATIO N .............................................................
292
1 96
208
5 97
291
508
270
692
813
997
1 ,2 1 9
969
1 ,6 1 5
1 ,1 7 1
825
1 ,9 1 7
557
2 ,3 7 7
1 ,2 9 7
90 9
0 .9 7
0 .2 5
0 .6 9
0 .7 6
0 .9 2
0 .6 3
0 .2 5
1 .0 6
0 .5 8
0 .9 0
9*1.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y B U S .......................................
TRUCK TRA NS P O R TATIO N......................................................................
WATER TR A N S P O R TATIO N ......................................................................
A IR TRA NS P O R TATIO N...........................................................................
OTHER TR A N S P O R TATIO N .....................................................................
0
393
21
17
9
0
588
32
31
7
0
979
51
95
8
0
1 ,0 7 2
56
50
7
0 .0 0
0 .5 5
0 .0 3
0 .0 3
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .9 8
0 .0 2
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
CO M M UNICATION S, EXCEPT R A DIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BRO AD CASTING ........................................................
E LE C T R IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
WATER AND S A N ITA R Y S E R V IC E S ..................................................
985
0
0
0
0
1 ,0 1 2
0
0
0
0
1 ,8 1 3
0
0
0
0
2 ,1 5 1
0
0
0
0
0 .9 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .9 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
109.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE T R A D E ...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................
F IN A N C E ..........................................................................................................
IN S U R A N C E .................... ...............................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED D W E LLIN G S ..........................................................
2 ,8 0 6
2 ,3 7 6
0
1
0
9 ,6 3 9
3 ,8 1 3
0
1
0
7 ,2 9 9
6 ,9 5 7
0
2
0
8 ,0 7 3
7 ,1 1 7
0
2
0
9 .3 1
3 .5 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
3 .5 9
3 .1 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
OTHER REAL E S T A T E ..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING P L A C E S ........................................................
OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS B U S IN ES S S E R V IC E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS IN G ...............................................................................................
1 ,2 2 9
0
0
0
0
1 ,1 7 1
0
0
0
0
1 ,8 0 3
0
0
0
0
2 ,1 9 0
0
0
0
0
1 .0 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .9 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
11*1.
115.
116.
117.
118.
MISCELLANEOUS PRO FESSION AL S E R V IC E S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR ..............................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS.................................................................................
HEALTH SER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
0
0
6
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
0
0
12
0
0
0
0
12
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S ......................................................................
0
0
0
0
O R G A N I Z A T I O N S ...........................................................................
0
0
0
POST O F F IC E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY C R E D IT CO RPO RATIO N...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NONPROFIT
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 -0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
12*1.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N T E R P R IS E S ....................
D IR E C TL Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS .....................................................
TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................
B U S IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............
0
0
1 87
0
0
0
0
579
0
0
0
0
3 96
0
0
0
0
905
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .5 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ....................................................................................
SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS....................................
GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS..................................................................................................
0
-8 6 6
0
0
0
0
-1 ,2 7 2
0
0
0
0
-2 ,0 1 7
0
0
0
0
-2 ,9 3 9
0
0
0
0 .0 0
-1 .1 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
-1 .0 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
139.
INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N ADJUSTM ENT..........................................
T O T A L ...............................................................................................................
-5 0 2
8 5 ,8 3 8
-9 ,3 1 6
1 0 7 ,9 9 9
-1 ,0 1 7
1 9 2 ,6 0 0
-9 8 0
2 2 9 ,8 0 0
-9 .0 2
1 0 0 .0 0
-0 .9 9
1 0 0 .0 0
.
17 3
TABLE B-10:INDOSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF FIXED INVESTMENT,
(PRODOCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
1970
1963
1 98 0
1985
PERCENT
1970
D IS T R IB U T IO N
1985
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
LIV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER A G R IC U LTU R A L PRODUCTS................. ..
FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................
A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RESTRY, AND F IS H E R Y S E R V IC E S ...
IRO N ORE M IN IN G ....................................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE M IN IN G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G ..................................
COAL M IN IN G ...............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM....................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND Q UARRYING............................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
*0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
CHEM ICAL AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G ..........................................
NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUC TION.......................
NEW N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION..............
NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUC TION..................................
NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TIO N...........................................................
0
2 6 ,1 8 7
1 1 ,6 4 4
4 ,6 6 7
0
0
2 4 ,0 5 5
1 4 ,9 8 6
8 ,0 2 6
0
0
4 0 ,4 3 3
2 3 ,9 4 8
1 5 ,9 2 5
0
0
4 8 ,0 6 3
2 8 ,6 6 2
1 8 ,3 9 1
0
0 .0 0
2 3 .1 9
1 4 .4 5
7 .7 4
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
2 2 .4 2
1 3 .3 7
8 .5 8
0 .0 0
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
A L L OTHER NEW CO NSTRUC TIO N.....................................................
MAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CONSTRUCTION............................
G UIDED M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE.......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
3 ,6 5 3
0
0
0
0
2 ,7 9 8
0
0
0
0
2 ,4 8 5
0
0
0
0
2 ,3 9 7
0
0
0
0
2 .7 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 .1 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO M ANUFACTURING ...................................................................
F A B R IC , YAR N, AND THREAD M IL L S ..........................................
MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S ....
HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................
A P P A R E L ..........................................................................................................
0
0
63
0
0
0
0
71
0
0
0
0
98
0
0
0
0
1 06
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
M ISCELLANEOUS F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............
LO G G IN G , S A W M IL L S , AND P LA N IN G M IL L S ..........................
M ILLW O R K, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S ....
HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E .........................................................................
OTHER F U R N IT U R E ....................................................................................
0
0
5
1 24
1 , 127
0
0
9
157
1 ,4 7 8
0
0
14
225
2 ,4 6 2
0
0
16
2 44
2 ,7 2 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .1 5
1 .4 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .1 1
1 .2 7
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS.......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD..................................................................................................
P U B L IS H IN G ..................................................................................................
P R IN T IN G ........................................................................................................
C HEM ICAL PRODUCTS..............................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
A G R IC ULTURAL C H E M IC A L S ................................................................
P L A S T IC M A TE R IA LS AND S Y N T H E T IC RUBBER....................
S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S .................................................................................
DRUGS...............................................................................................................
CLE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S .....................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
P A IN T ................................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS....................................................................................
P L A S T IC PRODUCTS.................................................................................
L E A TH E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
0
0
18
0
0
0
0
19
0
0
0
0
32
0
0
0
0
35
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
G LA S S ................................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRON AND STEE L FOUNDRIES AND FO RG ING S.......................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER M E TA LS ...................................................................
PRIMARY A LU M IN U M .................................................................................
OTHER PRIM ARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L ..
COPPER RO LLIN G AND DRAW ING.....................................................
ALUMINUM R O L LIN G AND DRAW ING................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 .0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS R O L LIN G AND DRAWING..........................
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL C O N TA IN E R S .................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S .................
FA B R IC A TE D STRUCTURAL M ETAL..................................................
22
0
9
0
536
34
0
12
0
8 93
66
0
20
0
1 ,5 7 2
76
0
19
0
1 ,7 5 1
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .8 6
0 .0 4
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .8 2
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS.................................................................
OTHER F A B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARM MACHINERY.......................................................................................
CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y ..
0
242
388
1 ,9 0 2
1 ,7 6 0
0
3 53
813
3 ,0 8 8
2 ,4 2 7
0
5 27
1 ,6 0 7
5 ,0 1 4
3 ,9 7 0
0
603
1 ,9 0 2
5 ,8 6 2
4 ,5 4 2
0 .0 0
0 .3 4
0 .7 8
2 .9 8
2 .3 4
0 .0 0
0 .2 8
0 .8 9
2 .7 3
2 .1 2
66.
67.
68.
M A TE R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP M E N T..................................................
METALWORKING M ACHINERY................................................................
S P E C IA L IN D U S TR Y MACHINERY.....................................................
665
1 ,6 7 0
2 ,0 2 5
9 86
2 ,2 6 8
2 ,5 6 0
1 ,7 0 2
3 ,4 2 7
3 ,9 9 2
2 ,2 5 4
3 ,7 9 9
4 ,1 2 5
0 .9 5
2 .1 9
2 .4 7
1 .0 5
1 .7 7
1 .9 2
17 4
TABLE B-1'0: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF FIXED IfTVESTMB'V’ 1963, 19'70, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985— CONTINUED
t,
(PRODUCERS* -VALUE TN MILLIONS OF 19-63 DOLLARS)
I
■
INDUSTRY CODE
1970
1963
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
COMPUTERS AND P ER IP H E R A L E Q U IP M E N T...............................
TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES.......................
S ER VICE INDUSTRY M AC H IN E S .......................................................
1 ,3 8 6
79.
75.
76.
77.
78.
1 98 0
1985
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
1 ,2 8 1
334
1 ,1 1 2
1 ,7 9 2
12
3 ,4 4 3
604
1 ,8 7 0
2 ,9 2 7
29
9 ,3 1 4
1 ,0 7 3
3 ,5 2 6
3 ,6 1 3
37
1 3 ,0 6 3
1 ,3 7 2
4 ,1 6 1
1 .7 3
0 .0 1
3 .3 2
0 .5 8
1 .8 0
1 .6 9
0 .0 2
6 .0 9
0 .6 4
1 .9 4
E LE C T R IC TR A N S M IS SIO N E Q U IP M E N T.......................................
E LE C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APP A RA TUS .......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ......................................................................
E LE C TR IC L IG H T IN G AND W IR IN G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................
1 ,2 7 7
585
1 20
55
1 12
1 ,2 8 8
660
90
109
170
2 ,1 5 7
1 ,2 7 8
1 34
214
337
2 ,6 5 6
1 ,4 5 3
1 47
260
3 81
1 .2 4
0 .6 4
0 .0 9
0 .1 1
0 .1 6
1 .2 4
0 .6 8
0 .0 7
0 .1 2
0 .1 8
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER E LECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQ UIPMENT..............
ELECTR ON IC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER E L E C T R IC A L M ACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
908
904
96
1 98
5 ,6 7 1
1 ,8 9 4
1 ,6 6 4
246
3 78
7 ,8 7 5
3 ,5 7 4
3 ,2 2 8
468
760
1 4 ,4 7 4
4 ,2 0 4
3 ,9 4 7
6 21
9 34
1 5 ,9 7 5
1 .8 3
1 .6 0
0 .2 4
0 .3 6
7 .5 9
1 .9 6
1 .8 4
0 .2 9
0 .4 4
7 .4 5
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A F T .......................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR .................................
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ...
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQU IPM ENT....................
S C IE N T IF IC AND CO NTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS....................
446
344
9 53
168
403
1 ,3 7 9
5 76
1 ,7 1 3
514
535
4 ,0 9 4
1 ,2 6 7
2 ,9 9 8
1 ,0 6 1
695
5 ,4 2 8
1 ,3 9 7
3 ,1 5 7
1 .4 0 2
771
1 .3 3
0 .5 6
1 .6 5
0 .5 0
0 .5 2
2 .5 3
0 .6 5
1 .4 7
0 .6 5
0 .3 6
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M E N T S ..........................................
O P T IC A L AND O PHTHALM IC EQ U IP M E NT....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILR OAD TRANSPO R TATIO N.............................................................
270
1 43
1 97
497
228
473
2 66
674
7 31
342
1 ,1 7 0
463
1 ,5 9 3
1 ,0 7 0
697
1 ,3 7 4
551
2 ,3 5 5
1 ,2 0 0
786
0 .4 6
0 .2 6
0 .6 5
0 .7 0
0 .3 3
0 .6 4
0 .2 6
1 .1 0
0 .5 6
0 .3 7
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y B U S .......................................
TRUCK TRA NS P O R TATIO N.....................................................................
WATER TRANSPO R TATIO N.....................................................................
A IR TRA NS P O R TATIO N...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPOR TATIO N......................................................................
0
317
13
16
0
0
4 62
19
30
0
0
819
35
43
0
0
923
41
48
0
0 .0 0
0 .4 5
0 .0 2
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .4 3
0 .0 2
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
CO M M UNICATION S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BRO ADCASTING ........................................................
E LE C TR IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
WATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S ..................................................
485
0
0
0
0
1 ,0 1 2
0
0
0
0
1 ,8 1 3
0
0
0
0
2 ,1 5 1
0
0
0
0
0 .9 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE TR A D E ...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................
F IN A N C E .........................................................................................................
IN S U R A N C E ....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DW ELLIN G S ..........................................................
2 ,4 8 1
2 ,3 7 6
0
1
0
4 ,0 9 7
3 ,8 1 3
0
1
0
6 ,5 8 6
6 ,4 5 7
0
2
0
7 ,4 3 9
7 ,1 1 7
0
2
0
3 .9 5
3 .6 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
3 .4 7
3 .3 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
109.
1 10.
111.
112.
1 13.
OTHER REAL E S T A T E .............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S ........................................................
OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S ............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUS IN ES S S E R V IC E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS IN G ..............................................................................................
1 ,2 2 4
0
0
0
0
1 ,1 7 1
0
0
0
0
1 ,8 0 3
0
0
0
0
2 ,1 4 0
0
0
0
0
1 .1 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
MISCELLANEOUS P RO FESSIO N AL S E R V IC E S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR ..............................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
119.
120.
121 .
122.
123.
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S ......................................................................
POST O F F IC E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY C R E D IT CO RPO RATIO N...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S ....................
D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS .....................................................
TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................
BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............
0
0
1 66
0
0
0
0
236
0
0
0
0
353
0
0
0
0
364
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .2 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ...................................................................................
S CRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS....................................
GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
0
-9 7 2
0
0
0
0
-1 ,4 4 5
0
0
0
0
-2 ,2 3 1
0
0
0
0
-2 ,6 4 0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
- 1 .3 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
-1 .2 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
134.
INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N ADJU S TM E N T..........................................
T O T A L ...............................................................................................................
0
8 0 ,5 0 8
0
1 0 3 ,7 2 7
0
1 8 1 ,8 0 0
0
2 1 4 ,4 0 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
NONPROFIT
O R G A N I Z A T I O N S ...........................................................................
6
17 5
TABLE B-11:INDUSTRIAL COHPOSITIOH OF SET EXPORTS, 1963, 1970, AMD PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
(PRODUCERS' VALUE IN BILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
IN D U S TR Y CODE
1970
1963
1980
1985
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
L IV E S T O C K AND L IV E S T O C K PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER A G R IC ULTURAL PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................
A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RESTRY, AND FIS H ER Y S E R V IC E S ...
IR O N ORE H IN IN G ....................................................................................
39
2 , 918
46
11
118
41
3 ,2 2 0
34
25
198
84
5 ,5 1 2
93
42
412
104
6 ,1 2 0
104
52
498
0 .0 8
6 .2 0
0 .0 7
0 .0 5
0 .3 8
0 .0 8
4 .6 4
0 .0 8
0 .0 4
0 .3 8
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE H I N IN G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS HETAL ORE H IN IN G ..................................
COAL H IN IN G ..............................................................................................
CRUDE PETR OLEUH...................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY H IN IN G AND Q UARRYING............................
0
1
305
12
38
28
8
3 91
23
98
59
17
707
17
202
75
21
8 70
15
259
0 .0 5
0 .0 2
0 .7 5
0 .0 4
0 .1 9
0 .0 6
0 .0 2
0 .6 6
0 .0 1
0 .2 0
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
C H E H IC A L AND F E R T IL IZ E R H IN IN G ..........................................
NEW R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUCTION.......................
NEW N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CONSTRUCTION..............
NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION..................................
NEW HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TION...........................................................
62
0
2
0
0
114
0
3
0
0
1 68
0
8
0
0
1 97
0
8
0
0
0 .2 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
A L L OTHER NEW CO NSTRUC TIO N.....................................................
HAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CO NSTRUCTION............................
G U ID E D M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
0
0
0
1 97
1, 970
0
0
7
362
2 ,5 0 0
0
0
17
707
3 ,5 3 4
0
0
19
8 80
4 ,0 3 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .7 0
4 .8 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .6 7
3 .0 6
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO M ANUFACTURING ..................................................................
F A B R IC , YAR N, AND THREAD H I L L S ..........................................
M ISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR CO V ER IN G S ____
HO SIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................
APP A RE L..........................................................................................................
510
302
29
17
289
5 19
3 11
92
34
370
673
5 14
2 69
101
673
725
605
383
1 45
7 77
1 .0 0
0 .6 0
0 .1 8
0 .0 7
0 .7 1
0 .5 5
0 .4 6
0 .2 9
0 .1 1
0 .5 9
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
M ISCELLANEOUS F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............
L O G G IN G , S A W M IL L S , AND P LA N IN G H IL L S ..........................
H IL LW O R K , PLYWOCD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S ....
HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................
OTHER F U R N IT U R E ...................................................................................
35
164
33
11
19
64
398
55
20
18
1 68
840
1 09
34
34
2 17
1 ,0 4 1
1 35
41
45
0 .1 2
0 .7 7
0 .1 1
0 .0 4
0 .0 3
0 .1 6
0 .7 9
0 .1 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 3
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................
P U B L IS H IN G .................................................................................................
P R IN T IN G .......................................................................................................
C H E H IC A L PRODUCTS..............................................................................
449
23
163
2
1, 0 3 2
789
24
195
61
1 ,8 0 4
2 ,0 6 2
42
337
143
3 ,3 9 1
2 ,7 0 3
52
3 83
1 86
4 ,1 8 3
1 .5 2
0 .0 5
0 .3 8
0 .1 2
3 .4 8
2 .0 5
0 .0 4
0 .2 9
0 .1 4
3 .1 7
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
AGR IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ................................................................
P L A S T IC M A TE R IA LS AND S Y N TH E TIC RUBBER....................
S Y N TH E TIC F IB E R S .................................................................................
DRUGS...............................................................................................................
C LE A N IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S ....................................
1 28
4 07
1 46
251
1 16
171
789
165
430
1 83
370
1 ,5 4 0
2 69
9 59
396
4 45
1 ,9 1 6
331
1 ,2 2 2
507
0 .3 3
1 .5 2
0 .3 2
0 .8 3
0 .3 5
0 .3 4
1 .4 5
0 .2 5
0 .9 3
0 .3 8
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
P A IN T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS...................................................................................
P L A S T IC PRODUCTS.................................................................................
LE A T H E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
31
682
175
101
68
47
849
1 88
149
65
93
1 ,4 9 8
252
286
135
1 14
1 ,7 4 0
270
352
166
0 .0 9
1 .6 4
0 .3 6
0 .2 9
0 .1 3
0 .0 9
1 .3 2
0 .2 0
0 .2 7
0 .1 3
46.
47.
46.
49.
50.
G L A S S .........................................................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................
M ISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
B LAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRON AND STEE L FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
96
26
102
447
46
1 42
43
1 67
933
1 06
227
76
311
1 ,9 6 1
269
271
93
383
2 ,5 1 6
352
0 .2 7
0 .0 8
0 .3 2
1 .8 0
0 .2 0
0 .2 1
0 .0 7
0 .2 9
1 .9 1
0 .2 7
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER M ETALS...................................................................
PRIMARY A LU M IN U M ................................................................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L ..
COPPER R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING.....................................................
ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING...............................................
196
81
84
13
47
164
2 11
92
17
100
311
404
177
34
143
3 42
518
2 17
41
176
0 .3 2
0 .4 1
0 .1 8
0 .0 3
0 .1 9
0 .2 6
0 .3 9
0 .1 6
0 .0 3
0 .1 3
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS RO LLIN G AND DRAWING.........................
M ISCELLANEOUS NCNFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
HETAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S .................
FA B R IC ATE D STRUCTURAL M E TA L..................................................
66
5
25
38
213
1 06
10
14
51
250
210
17
34
101
370
259
21
40
1 24
4 25
0 .2 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 3
0 .1 0
0 .4 8
0 .2 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 3
0 .0 9
0 .3 2
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER FA B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARM MACHINERY......................................................................................
CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y ..
44
268
303
285
936
255
430
411
258
1 ,3 1 3
5 12
842
985
412
2 ,1 7 1
651
1 ,0 3 5
1 ,2 7 0
478
2 ,4 6 3
0 .4 9
0 .8 3
0 .7 9
0 .5 0
2 .5 3
0 .4 9
0 .7 8
0 .9 6
0 .3 6
1 .8 7
66.
67.
68.
M A TE R IA L HANDLING EQ U IP M E N T..................................................
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
S P E C IA L INDUS TRY MACHINERY.....................................................
96
423
5 61
1 43
434
784
278
797
1 ,2 7 9
342
9 43
1 ,5 3 6
0 .2 8
0 .8 4
1 .5 1
0 .2 6
0 .7 1
1 .1 6
17 6
TABLE B - 1 1 lI N D U S T B I A L CO M PO SITTO N "OF NET EXPORTS,
( PRODUCERS’ VALUE IN M IL L IO N S OF X 963 rDOLLARS)
1 '9 6 3 .
IN D U S TR Y CODE
1970,
AND PROJECTED 1 9 8 0
1963
1970
AND 1 9 8 5 — CONTINUED
1980
1985
PERCENT
1970
D IS T R IB U T IO N
1985
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINB SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
COHPUTERS AND P E R IP H E R A L E Q U IP H E N T ...............................
TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E MACHINES.......................
SER VIC E IND U S TR Y M ACHINES........................................................
378
0
259
58
209
570
16
1 ,1 6 6
1 00
380
926
34
3 ,8 0 4
5 56
6 73
1 ,0 8 7
41
4 ,8 3 9
720
845
1 .1 0
0 .0 3
2 .2 5
0 .1 9
0 .7 3
0 .8 2
0 .0 3
3 .6 7
0 .5 5
0 .6 4
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
E LE C TR IC TR A N S M IS SIO N E Q U IP H E N T .......................................
E L E C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS.......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S .....................................................................
E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND H IR IN G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E T S ........................................................
155
1 89
184
81
89
300
280
224
161
1 59
6 06
5 88
4 96
345
3 37
777
740
6 63
466
435
0 .5 8
0 .5 4
0 .4 3
0 .3 1
0 .3 1
0 .5 9
0 .5 6
0 .5 0
0 .3 5
0 .3 3
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELE C TR O N IC COMM UNICATION E Q U IPM ENT..............
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER E L E C T R IC A L M ACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
32
253
1 99
75
1 ,3 9 0
62
392
864
1 64
2 ,5 6 1
143
7 74
1 ,7 9 2
353
5 ,2 0 0
208
953
2 ,3 7 1
457
6 ,5 4 4
0 .1 2
0 .7 6
1 .6 6
0 .3 2
4 .9 3
0 .1 6
0 .7 2
1 .8 0
0 .3 5
4 .9 6
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A F T ......................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR ..................................
R AILR O AD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATIO N E Q U IP M E N T ...
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQU IPM ENT....................
S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INS TRUM ENTS ....................
857
24
131
11
2 97
2 ,3 3 5
67
81
33
447
4 ,8 3 0
194
151
1 18
673
5 ,9 5 6
276
186
1 66
7 70
4 .5 0
0 .1 3
0 .1 6
0 .0 6
0 .8 6
4 .5 1
0 .2 1
0 .1 4
0 .1 3
0 .5 8
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
MEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U M E N T S .........................................
O P T IC A L AND O PHTHALM IC E Q U IP M E N T....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRA NS P O R TATIO N.............................................................
76
21
158
215
629
1 26
54
374
424
1 ,0 2 7
295
151
1 ,1 1 1
825
1 ,6 4 1
393
2 17
1 ,5 5 3
1 ,0 3 5
1 ,8 7 4
0 .2 4
0 .1 0
0 .7 2
0 .8 2
1 .9 8
0 .3 0
0 .1 6
1 .1 8
0 .7 8
1 .4 2
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TR A N S P O R TATIO N .....................................................................
HATER TRANSPO R TATIO N......................................................................
A IR TRA NS P O R TATIO N...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPO R TATIO N......................................................................
0
471
1 ,5 2 5
384
143
0
768
2 ,0 7 2
951
220
0
1 ,4 7 3
3 ,6 4 6
2 ,3 5 2
4 29
0
1 ,8 2 2
4 ,5 7 7
2 ,9 7 0
5 28
0 .0 0
1 .4 8
3 .9 9
1 .8 3
0 .4 2
0 .0 0
1 .3 8
3 .4 7
2 .2 5
0 .4 0
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
CO M M UNICATION S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................
E LE C T R IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
HATER AND S A N ITA R Y S E R V IC E S ..................................................
45
28
23
9
2
203
28
32
18
4
6 06
59
67
84
8
849
72
83
1 04
10
0 .3 9
0 .0 5
0 .0 6
0 .0 3
0 .0 1
0 .6 4
0 .0 5
0 .0 6
0 .0 8
0 .0 1
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE TR A D E ...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................
F IN A N C E .........................................................................................................
IN S U R A N C E ....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED D W ELLIN G S ...........................................................
1 ,7 1 3
1 14
9
32
0
2 ,9 1 0
1 98
17
55
0
5 ,3 8 6
438
42
109
0
6 ,6 4 8
559
61
151
0
5 .6 1
0 .3 8
0 .0 3
0 .1 1
0 .0 0
5 .0 4
0 .4 2
0 .0 5
0 .1 1
0 .0 0
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
OTHER REAL E S T A T E ..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S ........................................................
OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS B USIN ESS S E R V IC E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS IN G ..............................................................................................
420
236
4
29
16
730
388
43
89
39
1 ,4 3 9
783
101
286
126
1 ,7 7 1
973
127
4 04
136
1 .4 1
0 .7 5
0 .0 8
0 -1 7
0 .0 8
1 .3 4
0 .7 4
0 .1 0
0 .3 1
0 .1 4
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
MISCELLANEOUS PRO FESSION AL S E R V IC E S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR .............................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH S ER VIC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
1 53
1
313
96
3
224
2
284
1 58
6
446
8
328
311
17
549
6
331
383
17
0 .4 3
0 .0 0
0 .5 5
0 .3 0
0 .0 1
0 .4 2
0 .0 0
0 .2 5
0 .2 9
0 .0 1
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
H O S P IT A L S ...................................................................................................
EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S .....................................................................
NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S ..............................................................
POST O F F IC E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY C R E D IT CO RPO RATIO N...............................................
0
32
0
26
0
0
63
0
23
0
0
1 26
0
50
0
0
1 55
0
63
0
0 .0 0
0 .1 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 4
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S ....................
D IR E C TLY ALLOCATED IM P O R TS .....................................................
TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................
BUS IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............
65
0
-1 2 ,3 2 0
-1 4 ,3 1 8
0
85
0
-2 0 ,9 0 3
-2 7 ,9 0 3
0
1 26
0
-4 1 ,8 9 4
- 5 5 ,1 9 6
0
134
0
-4 8 ,1 2 5
-7 6 ,6 0 0
0
0 .1 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ...................................................................................
SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS....................................
GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
0
370
0
4 ,8 2 8
1
0
456
0
8 ,1 9 9
2
0
1 ,2 4 0
0
1 8 ,0 0 0
0
0
1 ,6 8 0
0
2 6 ,7 0 0
0
0 .0 0
0 .8 8
0 .0 0
1 5 .7 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 .2 7
0 .0 0
2 0 .2 4
0 .0 0
134.
INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N A DJUSTM ENT..........................................
T O T A L ...............................................................................................................
0
5 ,7 2 6
0
3 ,1 0 4
0
6 ,3 0 0
0
7 ,2 0 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
17 7
TABLE B-12: INDDSTEIAL COHPOSITION OF FEDEBAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
(PRODUCERS' VALUE IN BILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
IN D D S T E I CODE
1970
1963
1980
1985
PERCENT D1 S T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
1.
2.
3.
it .
5.
L IV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER AG RICULTURAL PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ...............................................................
A G R IC U LTU R E , FORESTRY, AND FISHER Y S E R V IC E S ...
IRO N ORE H IR IN G ..................................................................................
5
544
-1 7 1
17
9
87
-1 5 6
-3 9 1
8
-1 3
71
42
-5 4 2
6
0
75
44
-5 8 6
7
0
0 .1 3
-0 .2 2
-0 .5 6
0 .0 1
-0 .0 2
0 .0 8
0 .0 5
-0 .6 6
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE H IK IN G .............................................................................
OTHER NONFERRODS HETAL ORE H IR IN G ..................................
COAL H IR IN G .............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUH..................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY H IN IN G AND QUARRYING............................
0
242
35
0
3
0
49
48
0
-1 0
0
81
55
0
0
0
93
56
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 7
0 .0 7
0 .0 0
-0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .1 0
0 .0 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
C H E H IC A L AND F E R T IL IZ E R H IN IN G .........................................
NEB R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION......................
NEB N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CONSTRUCTION..............
NEB P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION..................................
NEB HIGHBAY CO NSTRUCTION..........................................................
0
1 37
1 ,0 8 9
0
1 83
0
75
565
0
1 72
0
87
1 ,8 7 9
80
281
0
107
2 ,2 8 3
100
3 06
0 .0 0
0 .1 1
0 .8 1
0 .0 0
0 .2 5
0 .0 0
0 .1 2
2 .5 6
0 .1 1
0 .3 4
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
A LL OTHER NEB CO NSTRUCTION....................................................
HAINTENANCE AND R E P AIR CONSTRUCTION............................
GUIDED H IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC LE S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE.....................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS........................................................................................
2 ,6 0 1
1 ,4 1 4
4 ,0 0 5
1 ,2 9 4
531
1 ,4 4 6
1 ,2 0 5
3 ,0 7 3
3 ,2 5 4
1 ,0 7 0
3 ,0 6 4
1 ,4 6 3
3 ,7 5 7
2 ,0 9 1
1 ,2 5 9
3 ,6 5 8
1 ,6 7 7
4 ,5 1 4
2 ,3 6 0
1 ,4 2 6
2 .0 8
1 .7 4
4 .4 3
4 .6 9
1 .5 4
4 .1 1
1 .8 8
5 .0 7
2 .6 5
1 .6 0
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO HANUFACTDRING ..................................................................
F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD H I L L S ..........................................
HISCELLANEO US T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S ....
HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS...............................................................
A PP A R E L.........................................................................................................
0
47
12
0
69
0
71
22
13
153
0
61
29
10
1 83
0
64
32
11
214
0 .0 0
0 .1 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 2
0 .2 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 7
0 .0 4
0 .0 1
0 .2 4
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
HISCELLANEO US FA B R IC ATE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............
LO G G IN G , S A B H I L IS , AND PLANING H IL L S ..........................
H IL L B O R K , PLYBOCD, AND OTHER BCOD PRODUCTS____
HOUSEHOLD F U R N ITU R E ........................................................................
OTHER F U R N IT U R E ...................................................................................
69
0
11
17
42
61
0
18
25
73
73
0
23
42
161
80
0
26
49
185
0 .0 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 4
0 .1 1
0 .0 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 6
0 .2 1
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS.....................................................................................
PAPERBOARD................................................................................................
P U B L IS H IN G ................................................................................................
P R IN T IN G ......................................................................................................
C H E H IC A L PRODUCTS.............................................................................
47
11
16
101
1 ,0 2 6
84
21
-5
-1 0
1 ,0 5 4
146
24
-3 8
-5 6
1 ,4 8 9
1 65
27
-4 3
-7 5
1 ,6 2 0
0 .1 2
0 .0 3
-0 .0 1
-0 .0 1
1 .5 2
0 .1 9
0 .0 3
-0 .0 5
-0 .0 8
1 .8 2
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
A G R IC ULTURAL C H E H IC A L S ...............................................................
P L A S T IC H A T E R IA L S AND S YN TH E TIC RUBBER....................
S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S ................................................................................
DRUGS..............................................................................................................
CLE AN IN G AND T O IL E T PRE PA RA TIO NS ....................................
10
24
18
48
25
20
7
5
1 39
37
40
8
6
305
46
46
10
8
3 59
50
0 .0 3
0 .0 1
0 .0 1
0 .2 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 5
0 .0 1
0 .0 1
0 .4 0
0 .0 6
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
P A IN T ..............................................................................................................
PETROLEUH PRODUCTS..........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS..................................................................................
P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................
LEA TH E R , FO OTBEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
3
712
141
30
5
4
1 ,1 2 9
130
25
57
6
1 ,4 0 8
1 42
34
42
9
1 ,5 5 8
165
40
45
0 .0 1
1 .6 3
0 .1 9
0 .0 4
0 .0 8
0 .0 1
1 .7 5
0 .1 9
0 .0 4
0 .0 5
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
G LASS..............................................................................................................
CEHENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................
HISCELLANEO US STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRO N AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
13
0
23
41
4
14
0
15
49
17
27
0
26
51
17
31
0
28
53
21
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 7
0 .0 2
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 6
0 .0 2
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIHARY COPPER HE TA LS ..................................................................
PRIHABY A L U H IN U H ................................................................................
OTHER P RIHARY AND SECONDARY NONFERRODS H E T A L ..
COPPER B O LLIN G AND D RA K ING .....................................................
ALUHINUH R O LLIN G AND DRAHING ...............................................
7
2
-4
0
18
27
0
216
11
28
57
0
452
19
25
65
0
519
21
26
0 .0 4
0 .0 0
0 .3 1
0 .0 2
0 .0 4
0 .0 7
0 .0 0
0 .5 8
0 .0 2
0 .0 3
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS B O LLIN G AND DRABING ..........................
HISCELLANEO US NCNFERRODS HETAL PRODUCTS.................
HETAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLU HBING F IX T U R E S .................
FA B R IC ATE D STRUCTURAL HE TA L..................................................
-4 7
14
7
4
54
-2 9
23
9
7
76
25
62
7
17
158
26
72
9
27
215
-0 .0 4
0 .0 3
0 .0 1
0 .0 1
0 .1 1
0 .0 3
0 .0 8
0 .0 1
0 .0 3
0 .2 4
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREB HA CHINE PRODUCTS...............................................................
OTHER F A B R IC A TE D HETAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARH H A C H IN E R Y .....................................................................................
CO NSTRUCTION, H IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D H A C H IN E R Y ..
27
40
179
11
1 05
31
78
216
5
86
39
1 26
333
7
117
42
1 64
4 50
7
1 20
0 .0 4
0 .1 1
0 .3 1
0 .0 1
0 .1 2
0 .0 5
0 .1 8
0 .5 1
0 .0 1
0 .1 3
66.
67.
68.
H A T E R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP H E N T..................................................
HETALBORKING HA C H IN E R Y ...............................................................
S P E C IA L INDUSTRY HACHINERY.....................................................
70
85
17
94
65
36
1 97
66
54
323
69
62
0 .1 4
0 .0 9
0 .0 5
0 .3 6
0 .0 8
0 .0 7
17 8
I ABLE B-12: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OP FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985 — CONTINUED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
IN D U S TR Y CODE
1963
1970
1980
1985
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
COMPUTERS AND PER IP H E R A L E Q U IP M E N T...............................
TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E M ACHINES.......................
S ER VICE IN D U S TR Y M ACHINES........................................................
236
49
389
59
47
1 36
43
506
38
50
187
82
1 ,3 8 5
57
66
201
113
2 ,0 3 8
65
69
0 .2 0
0 .0 6
0 .7 3
0 .0 5
0 .0 7
0 .2 3
0 .1 3
2 .2 9
0 .0 7
0 .0 8
74.
75.
76.
77.
78.
E LE C TR IC T R A N S M IS SIO N E Q U IP M E N T.......................................
E LE C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L A PPARATUS.......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S ......................................................................
E LE C TR IC L IG H T IN G AND H IR IN G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E TS ........................................................
229
1 95
10
13
63
1 56
1 98
14
28
61
2 67
382
30
47
127
363
489
41
55
170
0 .2 2
0 .2 9
0 .0 2
0 .0 4
0 .0 9
0 .4 1
0 .5 5
0 .0 5
0 .0 6
0 .1 9
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER E LE C TR O N IC COMMUNICATION E Q U IPM ENT..............
ELECTR ON IC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER E L E C T R IC A L MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
136
4 ,4 8 7
398
109
663
72
4 ,3 4 6
328
82
735
169
6 ,2 9 9
590
101
1 ,0 7 0
212
7 ,6 0 2
713
1 29
1 ,2 6 7
0 .1 0
6 .2 6
0 .4 7
0 .1 2
1 .0 6
0 .2 4
8 .5 4
0 .8 0
0 .1 4
1 .4 2
84.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A F T ......................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR ..................................
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T ...
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQ U IPM ENT....................
S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING INSTRUM ENTS....................
7 ,5 3 2
1 ,1 1 7
6
1
3 56
7 ,2 3 6
9 31
3
10
3 11
6 ,9 3 6
2 ,8 8 6
4
11
4 14
7 ,4 7 3
2 ,4 3 0
5
13
4 97
1 0 .4 3
1 .3 4
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .4 5
8 .3 9
2 .7 3
0 .0 1
0 .0 1
0 .5 6
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUM ENTS ..........................................
O P T IC A L AND OPHTBALM IC E Q U IP M E N T....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPOR TATIO N.............................................................
49
18
130
8
339
76
63
213
11
397
121
62
335
15
5 25
1 39
70
3 77
18
594
0 .1 1
0 .0 9
0 .3 1
0 .0 2
0 .5 7
0 .1 6
0 .0 8
0 .4 2
0 .0 2
0 .6 7
94.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y EUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPO R TATIO N......................................................................
HATER TRA N S P O R TATIO N .....................................................................
A IR TRA N S P O R TATIO N ...........................................................................
OTHER TR A N S P O R TATIO N .....................................................................
14
929
273
397
14
32
693
702
746
28
41
920
481
1 ,0 3 9
32
45
1 ,0 6 1
4 88
1 ,1 3 9
35
0 .0 5
1 .0 0
1 .0 1
1 .0 8
0 .0 4
0 .0 5
1 .1 9
0 .5 5
1 .2 8
0 .0 4
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
CO M M UNICATIO N S, EXCEPT R A D IO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................
E LE C TR IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
HATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S ..................................................
3 41
0
191
46
26
5 92
0
52
85
59
6 57
0
-1 1 4
129
69
723
0
-1 0 1
146
81
0 .8 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 7
0 .1 2
0 .0 9
0 .8 1
0 .0 0
-0 .1 1
0 .1 6
0 .0 9
104.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE T R A D E ...................................................................................
R E T A IL TR A D E ...........................................................................................
F IN A N C E .........................................................................................................
IN S U R A N C E ......................................... ..........................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DW ELLIN G S..................................................... . .
775
-1 7
15
22
0
1 ,1 6 5
8
33
17
0
1 ,6 5 6
17
70
35
0
2 ,0 1 8
19
80
40
0
1 .6 8
0 .0 1
0 .0 5
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
2 .2 7
0 .0 2
0 .0 9
0 .0 4
0 .0 0
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
OTHER REAL E S T A T E ..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING P LACES........................................................
OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSIN ESS S E R V IC E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS IN G ..............................................................................................
1 62
3 49
14
1 ,6 5 2
1
226
5 32
48
1 ,3 9 6
0
441
7 24
76
1 ,8 9 4
0
5 05
8 03
93
2 ,3 4 2
0
0 .3 3
0 .7 7
0 .0 7
2 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .5 7
0 .9 0
0 .1 0
2 .6 3
0 .0 0
114.
115.
116.
117.
118.
MISCELLANEOUS PBO PESSIO NAL S E R V IC E S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A IR ..............................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH S ER V IC E S EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
3 27
21
54
54
73
367
33
88
74
1 62
5 66
43
91
57
226
7 84
55
1 00
59
275
0 .5 3
0 .0 5
0 .1 3
0 .1 1
0 .2 3
0 .8 8
0 .0 6
0 .1 1
0 .0 7
0 .3 1
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC B S ......................................................................
NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S .............................................................
POST O F F IC E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY C R E D IT CORPORATION...............................................
86
8 36
420
1 13
0
169
678
549
172
0
263
1 ,2 3 8
731
2 24
0
338
1 ,6 1 8
8 53
240
0
0 .2 4
0 .9 8
0 .7 9
0 .2 5
0 .0 0
0 .3 8
1 .8 2
0 .9 6
0 .2 7
0 .0 0
124.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL E N TE R P R IS E S .......................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E N TE R P R IS E S ....................
D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IM P O R TS .....................................................
TRANSFERRED IM P O R T S ........................................................................
B USIN ESS T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN M E N T, AND G IF T S ............
2
1 98
2 ,6 4 9
0
0
12
444
3 ,6 7 2
0
0
13
912
5 ,5 9 7
0
0
17
1 ,1 4 6
6 ,5 6 6
0
0
0 .0 2
0 .6 4
5 .2 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
1 .2 9
7 .3 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ...................................................................................
S CRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS....................................
GOVERNMENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
1 42
-5 4
2 4 ,4 4 9
-6 4 3
0
254
0
2 7 ,2 1 9
-1 ,6 4 5
0
4 30
0
2 2 ,2 2 4
-2 ,6 0 0
0
468
0
2 2 ,2 9 6
-3 ,5 5 0
0
0 .3 7
0 .0 0
3 9 .2 2
-2 .3 7
0 .0 0
0 .5 3
0 .0 0
2 5 .0 4
-3 .9 9
0 .0 0
134.
INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N ADJUSTM ENT..........................................
T O T A L ...............................................................................................................
0
6 5 ,6 6 2
0
6 9 ,3 9 5
0
8 0 ,0 9 0
0
8 9 ,0 4 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
17 9
TABLE B-13: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF FBDERAL DEFENSE PURCHASES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
(PRODUCERS' VALUE IN BILLICNS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
1963
1970
1980
1985
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
L IV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER AGR IC ULTURAL PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ................................................................
A G R IC U L T U R E , FORESTRY, AND FIS HER Y S E R V IC E S ...
IR O N ORE M IN IN G ...................................................................................
2
3
1
17
15
80
60
2
8
0
56
42
2
6
0
58
44
2
7
0
0 .1 5
0 .1 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .1 0
0 .0 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE M IN IN G .............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G ..................................
COAL M IN IN G ..............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM...................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND QUARRYING............................
0
236
31
0
7
0
38
38
0
0
0
58
35
0
0
0
67
33
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 7
0 .0 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 1
0 .0 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
C H E M IC A L AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G ..........................................
NEH R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION.......................
NEW N O N R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION..............
NEW P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUCTION..................................
NEH HIGHWAY CO NSTRUC TION..........................................................
0
137
467
0
4
0
75
377
0
4
0
87
746
80
6
0
1 07
996
100
6
0 .0 0
0 .1 4
0 .7 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .1 8
1 .6 9
0 .1 7
0 .0 1
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
A L L OTHER NEH CO NSTRUC TION.....................................................
M AINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CONSTRUCTION............................
G U ID E D M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
1 ,1 6 8
943
2 ,7 9 4
1 ,2 7 6
1 67
477
631
2 ,1 3 1
3 ,2 4 2
728
511
831
2 ,9 0 7
2 ,0 6 8
575
711
951
3 ,5 3 7
2 ,3 3 2
5 87
0 .8 8
1 .1 6
3 .9 3
5 .9 8
1 .3 4
1 .2 0
1 .6 1
5 .9 9
3 .9 5
0 .9 9
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO M ANUFACTURING ...................................................................
F A B R IC , Y AR N, AMD THREAD M IL L S ..........................................
MISCELLANEOU S T E X T IL E S AND FLOCR C O VER IN G S____
HO SIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................
A PP A R E L..........................................................................................................
0
32
9
0
45
0
70
15
13
97
0
60
14
10
68
0
63
15
11
70
0 .0 0
0 .1 3
0 .0 3
0 .0 2
0 .1 8
0 .0 0
0 .1 1
0 .0 3
0 .0 2
0 .1 2
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
M ISCELLANEO U S FA B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............
L O G G IN G , S A H M IL L S , AND P LA N IN G H IL L S ..........................
H IL LW O R K , PLYWOOD, AND OTHER HCOD PRODUCTS____
HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................
OTHER F U R N IT U R E ...................................................................................
63
0
9
9
17
48
0
13
9
14
45
0
13
9
14
46
0
15
11
16
0 .0 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 2
0 .0 3
0 .0 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 2
0 .0 3
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................
P U B L IS H IN G .................................................................................................
P R IN T IN G .......................................................................................................
C H E M IC A L PRODUCTS..............................................................................
22
9
38
1 59
963
26
17
44
114
993
25
17
64
214
1 ,3 7 1
26
19
74
234
1 ,4 8 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 3
0 .0 8
0 .2 1
1 .8 3
0 .0 4
0 .0 3
0 .1 3
0 .4 0
2 .5 1
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
A G R IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ................................................................
P L A S T IC H A T E R IA IS AND S Y N TH E TIC RUBBER....................
S Y N T H E T IC F IB E R S ................................................................................
DRUGS...............................................................................................................
C LE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E PA R A TIO N S ....................................
2
24
18
15
20
2
7
5
63
24
2
8
6
59
22
2
10
8
61
23
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 1
0 .1 2
0 .0 4
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .0 1
0 .1 0
0 .0 4
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
P A IN T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS...................................................................................
P L A S T IC PRODUCTS................................................................................
L E A T H E R , FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
2
660
135
26
4
2
1 ,0 5 1
1 19
16
55
3
1 ,2 4 6
119
16
39
5
1 ,3 4 7
1 39
19
41
0 .0 0
1 .9 4
0 .2 2
0 .0 3
0 .1 0
0 .0 1
2 .2 8
0 .2 4
0 .0 3
0 .0 7
46.
48.
49.
50.
G LA S S ...............................................................................................................
CEMENT,
, A ND C O N C R E T E P F O D U C T S ...................................
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
B LAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRO N AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
8
0
27
40
4
4
0
25
46
11
6
0
26
46
5
7
0
28
47
7
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 8
0 .0 2
0 .0 1
0 -0 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 8
0 .0 1
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS...................................................................
PRIMARY A LU M IN U M ................................................................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NCNFEP.HOUS M E T A L ..
COPPER R O L LIN G AND DRAW ING.....................................................
ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING...............................................
-5
2
-3 0
0
17
0
0
3
4
27
0
0
3
4
24
0
0
5
4
25
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 1
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 1
0 .0 4
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS B O LLIN G AND DRAWING..........................
MISCELLANEOU S NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL C O N TA IN E R S ................................................................................
H EATIN G APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F IX T U R E S .................
F A B R IC A TE D STRUCTURAL M E TA L..................................................
70
13
7
4
48
25
7
9
7
67
24
6
7
17
147
25
7
9
27
2 02
0 .0 5
0 .0 1
0 .0 2
0 .0 1
0 .1 2
0 .0 4
0 .0 1
0 .0 2
0 .0 5
0 .3 4
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER FA B R IC A T E D METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARM MACHINERY.................................... .................................................
CO NSTRUC TIO N , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y ..
22
29
1 57
10
99
22
49
1 79
4
84
22
69
258
4
114
23
99
363
4
1 16
0 .0 4
0 .0 9
0 .3 3
0 .0 1
0 .1 5
0 .0 4
0 .1 7
0 .6 1
0 .0 1
0 .2 0
66.
67.
68.
M A TE R IA L HANDLING EQ U IP M E NT..................................................
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
S P E C IA L IN D U S TR Y MACHINERY.....................................................
64
67
10
90
57
18
190
55
18
315
57
20
0 .1 7
0 .1 1
0 .0 3
0 .5 3
0 .1 0
0 .0 3
47.
CA
LY
18 0
TABLE B - 1 3 :
( PgODUCERS'
IN D U S T R IA L C O H P O S ITIO N OF FEDERAL DEFENSE PURCHASES,
VALUE
B IL L IO N S OF 1 9 6 3 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
1963,
1970,
AND PROJ3JCTBD m « M H) 1 9 8 5 — CO B T IN OED
u # u tu
1963
1970
1980
1985
PERCENT D IS T R IB U T IO N
1970
1985
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL IN D U S T R IA L H A CHINE RY ...............................................
HACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS..................................................................
COMPUTERS AND P ER IP H E R A L EQ U IP M E NT...............................
TYPEW RITERS AND OTHER O F F IC E H A C H IN E S .......................
SER VIC E INDUSTRY H A C H IN E S ........................................................
220
98
317
19
99
121
92
260
22
99
1 60
80
666
90
59
170
110
9 16
95
55
0 .2 2
0 .0 8
0 .9 8
0 .0 9
0 .0 8
0 .2 9
0 .1 9
1 .5 5
0 .0 8
0 .0 9
79.
75.
76.
77.
78.
E LE C T R IC T R A N S H IS S IO N E Q U IP H E N T .......................................
E L E C T R IC A L IN D U S T R IA L APPARATUS.......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S .....................................................................
E LE C T R IC L IG H T IN G AND H IR IN G ................................................
RADIO AND T E L E V IS IO N S E TS ........................................................
1 97
1 79
8
13
39
1 92
151
10
20
52
297
296
23
30
72
390
391
33
35
92
0 .2 6
0 .2 8
0 .0 2
0 .0 9
0 .1 0
0 .5 8
0 .6 6
0 .0 6
0 .0 6
0 .1 6
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELECTR O N IC C CH HUNICATIO N E Q U IP H E N T ..............
ELECTR ON IC COHPONBNTS..................................................................
OTHER E L E C T R IC A L HA CHINE RY .....................................................
HOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
126
9 ,1 2 5
361
96
615
69
3 ,5 2 6
293
79
6 11
159
9 ,6 8 6
5 30
88
811
199
5 ,9 5 6
690
1 13
8 98
0 .1 2
6 .5 0
0 .5 9
0 .1 9
1 .1 3
0 .3 3
9 .2 9
1 .0 8
0 .1 9
1 .5 2
89.
85.
86.
87.
88.
A IR C R A F T ......................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A IR ..................................
R A ILR O A D AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP H E N T ...
HISCELLANEO US TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP H E N T....................
S C IE N T IF IC AND CONTROLLING IN S TR O H E N TS ....................
6 ,7 7 2
979
5
1
287
6 ,8 1 2
879
2
9
212
6 ,5 1 2
2 ,7 7 9
2
9
295
6 ,9 5 5
2 ,2 9 3
3
11
395
1 2 .5 7
1 .6 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 2
0 .3 9
1 1 .7 8
3 .8 8
0 .0 1
0 .0 2
0 .5 8
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
HEDICAL AND DENTAL IN S TR U H E N T S ..........................................
O P T IC A L AND O PH THALH IC E Q U IP H E N T....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPHENT AND S U P P L IE S ............................
HISCELLANEO US HANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
R AILR O AD TRA N S P O R TATIO N .............................................................
30
10
89
10
1 50
98
91
1 66
15
3 31
68
31
296
15
390
78
39
275
18
9 38
0 .0 9
0 .0 8
0 .3 1
0 .0 3
0 .6 1
0 .1 3
0 .0 6
0 .9 7
0 .0 3
0 .7 9
99.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL T R A N S IT AND IN T E R C IT Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRA NS P O R TATIO N.....................................................................
HATER TRA NS P O R TATIO N.....................................................................
A IR TR A N S P O R TATIO N ...........................................................................
OTHER TRA NS P O R TATIO N.....................................................................
11
397
265
333
13
25
579
695
608
26
27
676
970
758
28
29
750
975
768
30
0 .0 5
1 .0 6
1 .2 8
1 .1 2
0 .0 5
0 .0 5
1 .2 7
0 .8 0
1 .3 0
0 .0 5
99.
100.
101.
102.
103.
C O H H U N IC A TIO N S , E IC E P T R A DIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................
E LE C T R IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
HATER AND S AN ITA R Y S E R V IC E S ..................................................
3 01
0
313
35
20
928
0
3 03
37
38
378
0
271
29
28
396
0
2 90
31
33
0 .7 9
0 .0 0
0 .5 6
0 .0 7
0 .0 7
0 .6 7
0 .0 0
0 .9 9
0 .0 5
0 .0 6
109.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE TRADE...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................
F IN A N C E .........................................................................................................
IN S U R A N C E ....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED D W ELLIN G S ..........................................................
629
-2 1
0
19
0
803
0
0
0
0
955
0
0
0
0
1 ,0 6 5
0
0
0
0
1 .9 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 .8 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
109.
1 10.
111.
112.
113.
OTHER REAL E S T A T E ..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING P LA C E S .......................................................
OTHER PERSONAL S E R V IC E S .............................................................
HISCELLANEO US BUS IN ES S S E R V IC E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS IN G ..............................................................................................
75
267
1
1 ,9 0 9
1
16
351
20
997
0
16
351
20
1 ,0 0 0
0
19
356
23
1 ,2 9 7
0
0 .0 3
0 .6 5
0 .0 9
1 .7 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .6 0
0 .0 9
2 .1 1
0 .0 0
119.
115.
116.
117.
118.
HISCELLANEO US PRO FESSIONAL S E R V IC E S ............................
AUTO HO BILE R E P A IR .............................................................................
HOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AHUSEHENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SER VIC E S E IC E P T H O S P IT A L S ....................................
209
16
99
61
39
259
23
75
90
73
910
23
75
90
93
60 9
30
82
97
95
0 .9 7
0 .0 9
0 .1 9
0 .1 7
0 .1 3
1 .0 2
0 .0 5
0 .1 9
0 .1 6
0 .0 8
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIO NAL S E R V IC E S .....................................................................
NONPROFIT O R G A N IZ A T IO N S .............................................................
POST O F F IC E ..............................................................................................
COHHODITY C R E D IT CO RPORATION...............................................
90
933
3 91
92
0
69
191
330
139
0
99
3 01
981
154
0
95
381
5 97
1 60
0
0 .1 2
0 .3 5
0 .6 1
0 .2 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 8
0 .6 5
0 .9 3
0 .2 7
0 .0 0
129.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R IS E S ........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNHENT E N TE R P R IS E S ....................
D IR E C T L Y ALLOCATED IH P O B T S .....................................................
TRANSFERRED IH P O R T S ........................................................................
B U S IN ES S T R A V E L , E N TE R TA IN H E N T, AND G IF T S ............
2
12
1 ,9 9 5
0
0
3
18
2 ,9 3 5
0
0
3
18
2 ,9 9 9
0
0
5
21
2 ,6 9 0
0
0
0 .0 1
0 .0 3
9 .9 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 9
9 .5 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O F F IC E S U P P L IE S ...................................................................................
SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GOODS....................................
GOVERNHENT IN D U S T R Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IN D U S T R Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
83
-1 7 2
1 8 ,5 0 1
0
0
117
0
2 0 ,1 3 7
0
0
132
0
1 9 ,1 9 2
0
0
138
0
1 9 ,0 9 2
0
0
0 .2 2
0 .0 0
3 7 .1 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .2 3
0 .0 0
2 3 .8 6
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
139.
INVENTORY V ALU A TIO N AD JU S TH E N T..........................................
T O T A L ...............................................................................................................
0
5 0 ,6 9 1
0
5 9 ,2 0 8
0
5 9 ,2 0 0
0
5 9 ,0 5 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 0 0 .0 0
18 1
TABLE B-19: INDUSTRIAL COMPOSITION OF STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES, 1963, 1970, AND PROJECTED 1980 AND 1985
(PRODUCERS* VALUE IN MILLIONS OF 1963 DOLLARS)
IN D U S TR Y CODE
1963
1970
1980
1985
1970
.
STR I B U T I O N
1985
12
88
3
-3 3
0
27
189
6
-7 0
0
68
9 70
19
-1 2 2
0
87
629
22
-1 3 9
0
0 .0 3
0 .2 2
0 .0 1
-0 .0 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
0 .3 5
0 .0 1
-0 .0 8
0 .0 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE M IN IN G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M IN IN G ..................................
COAL M IN IN G ...............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM...................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND CUARR YING............................
0
0
19
0
-3 0
0
0
36
0
-6 3
0
0
73
0
-9 7
0
0
85
0
-1 2 6
C .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 9
0 .0 0
-0 .0 7
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 0
-0 .0 7
11.
12.
13.
19.
15.
C H E M IC A L AND F E R T IL IZ E R M IN IN G ..........................................
NEB R E S ID E N T IA L B U L ID IN G CO NSTRUCTION.......................
NEB NON R E S ID E N T IA L B U IL D IN G CO NSTRUCTION..............
NEB P U B L IC U T I L I T I E S CO NSTRUC TION..................................
NEB HIGHHAY CO NSTRUC TIO N...........................................................
29
725
9 ,8 3 0
2 ,5 0 2
6 ,7 5 8
51
1 ,1 9 9
6 ,0 2 9
2 ,6 5 9
6 ,9 7 2
109
1 ,8 9 1
8 ,9 0 0
7 ,5 0 0
7 ,5 0 0
1 98
2 ,3 5 0
1 0 ,2 0 0
9 ,2 0 0
8 ,0 5 0
0 .0 6
1 .9 1
7 .0 8
3 .1 2
7 .6 0
0 .0 8
1 .3 1
5 .6 7
5 .1 2
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
A L L OTHER NEB CO NSTRUC TION.....................................................
MAINTENANCE AND R E P A IR CONSTRUCTION............................
G UIDED M IS S IL E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
591
3 ,5 1 0
0
2
987
732
0
5
950
1 ,8 0 0
7 ,7 8 9
0
11
1 ,6 8 9
2 ,8 0 0
1 0 ,1 6 7
0
15
2 ,1 6 1
0 .8 6
5 .6 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
1 .1 2
1 .5 6
5 .6 5
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
1 .2 0
21.
22.
23.
29.
25.
TOBACCO M ANUFACTURING ...................................................................
F A B R IC , Y AR N, AND THFEAD M I L L S ..........................................
MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S ....
HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................
A P P A R E L.......................................................................................•..................
1
19
0
0
76
2
29
0
0
1 50
9
86
18
0
995
6
111
29
0
589
0 .0 0
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .1 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 6
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .3 2
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOU S F A B R IC A TE D T E X T IL E PRODUCTS............
LO G G ING , S A N H IL L S , AND P LA N IN G M IL L S ..........................
M IL L B O R K , PLYBOOD, AND OTHER BCOD PRODUCTS____
HOUSEHOLD F U R N IT U R E ........................................................................
OTHER F U R N IT U R E ...................................................................................
8
0
9
18
205
17
0
7
97
997
39
0
19
93
8 19
95
0
25
106
911
0 .0 2
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 6
0 .5 3
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
0 .0 6
0 .5 1
31.
32.
33.
39.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD..................................................................................................
P U B L IS H IN G .................................................................................................
P R IN T IN G .......................................................................................................
C HEM ICAL PRODUCTS..............................................................................
95
59
289
1 62
1 29
100
139
672
358
900
251
2 59
1 ,1 9 0
655
1 ,2 0 7
329
317
1 ,2 5 1
8 73
1 ,5 8 9
0 .1 2
0 .1 6
0 .7 9
0 .9 2
0 .9 7
0 .1 8
0 .1 8
0 .7 0
0 .9 9
0 .8 8
36.
37.
38.
39.
90.
A G R IC U LTU R A L C H E M IC A L S ................................................................
P L A S T IC M A T E R IA L S AND S Y N TH E TIC RUBBER....................
S YN TH E TIC F IB E R S .................................................................................
DRUGS................................................................................................................
C LE AN IN G AND T O IL E T P R E P A R A TIO N S ....................................
77
0
0
292
1 12
171
0
0
969
298
520
0
0
2 ,0 9 7
772
685
0
0
2 ,6 7 3
8 87
0 .2 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .5 5
0 .3 5
0 .3 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
1 .9 9
0 .9 9
91.
92.
93.
99.
95.
P A IN T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS....................................................................................
P L A S T IC PRODUCTS.................................................................................
LE A TH E R , FO O TBEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
3
301
66
36
1
7
659
191
72
2
17
1 ,6 7 2
3 03
229
9
21
2 ,0 1 2
399
299
6
0 .0 1
0 .7 7
0 .1 7
0 .0 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 1
1 .1 2
0 .2 2
0 .1 7
0 .0 0
96.
97.
98.
99.
50.
G LA S S ...............................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................
M ISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND B A S IC STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRO N AND STEEL FO UNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
33
0
13
3
0
80
0
39
6
0
187
0
63
13
0
228
0
71
18
0
0 .0 9
0 .0 0
0 .0 9
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
0 .1 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 9
0 .0 1
0 .0 0
51.
52.
53.
59.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER M E TA LS ...................................................................
PRIMARY ALU M INUM .................................................................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L ..
COPPER R O LLIN G AND D R A B IN G .....................................................
ALUMINUM R O LLIN G AND DRAW ING...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS R O LLIN G AND D RA B ING ..........................
MISCELLANEOUS BCNFERBOUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL C O N TA IN E R S .................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUM BING F IX T U R E S .................
FA B R IC ATE D STRUCTURAL M E TA L..................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
0 .0 0
61.
62.
63.
69.
65.
SCREB M ACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER F A B R IC A TE D METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E N G IN E S , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARM M ACHINERY......................................................................................
CO NSTRUC TION , M IN IN G , AND O IL F IE L D M A C H IN E R Y ..
11
8
0
16
33
32
22
0
39
70
58
1 29
0
76
1 52
63
1 96
0
87
207
0 .0 9
0 .0 3
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
0 .0 8
0 .0 9
0 .0 8
0 .0 0
0 .0 5
0 .1 2
66.
67.
68.
M A T E R IA L HANDLING E Q U IP M E N T....................................... ..
METALBORKING M A C H IN E R Y ................................................................
S P E C IA L INDUS TRY MACHINERY.....................................................
1
23
6
9
57
20
32
1 29
97
37
160
55
0 .0 0
0 .0 7
0 .0 2
0 .0 2
0 .0 9
0 .0 3
18 2
&
CD
■C
L IV E S T O C K AND LIV E S T O C K PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER A G R IC U LTU R A L PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F IS H E R IE S ....................................... ........................
A G R IC U LTU R E , FO RBSTEY, AND FIS H E R Y S E R V IC E S ...
IRO N ORE M IN IN G ....................................................................................
00
1.
2.
3.
9.
5.
r»6te B-1*;
DBCERS*
m # S
C O M P O S IT fC ^ OF 'STATE AST) LOCAL GOVER1HIENT "PURCHASES.
Z » M Y . X I O N S -OF 196 3 DOLL A RS-)
'
—
1-------------------------INDUSTRY CODE
196 3
1 97 0
1 9 0 ,
TT,
70
|
AND PROJECTED
19 8 0
I ---------------------------- r
|
198 0
1985
AND 1 9 8 5 — CONTINUED
PERCENT
197 0
DISTRIBUTION
198 5
69.
70.
71.
72.
73.
GENERAL IN D U S T R I A L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT...............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES.......................
SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................
12
83
80
70
73
26
116
107
181
185
60
201
1 ,133
5 15
5 05
81
22 8
1 ,5 5 8
63 3
59 3
0 .0 3
0.1 8
0 .1 3
0.2 1
0 .2 2
0.0 5
0 .1 2
0 .8 6
0 .3 5
0.3 3
78.
75.
76.
77.
78.
ELECT RIC TRA NSMISSION EQUIPMENT.......................................
ELE CTR ICA L I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.......................................
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA NC ES .....................................................................
ELE CTR IC L IG H T I N G AND H I R I N G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ET S ........................................................
31
29
18
55
15
68
69
33
136
38
3 25
26 5
82
23 8
99
833
3 33
102
302
122
0 .0 8
0 .0 8
0.0 8
0.1 6
0.0 8
0.2 8
0.1 9
0.0 6
0.1 7
0 .0 7
79.
80.
81.
82.
83.
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT..............
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER ELE CT R IC AL MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
0
102
5
18
6 85
0
2 13
18
26
1 ,8 5 8
0
615
38
75
2 ,7 5 8
0
800
86
101
3,5 7 8
0 .0 0
0 .2 5
0 .0 2
0.0 3
1.7 1
0 .0 0
0 .8 8
0.0 3
0.0 6
1 .9 9
88.
85.
8b.
87.
88.
A IR C R A FT .......................................................................................................
SH IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R ..................................
RAILROAD AND OTBER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . .
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT...................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS....................
0
10
21
0
57
0
20
44
0
137
30
59
52 5
0
3 22
35
70
6 25
0
380
0 .0 0
C.02
0 .0 5
0.0 0
0.1 6
0 .0 2
0.0 8
0.3 5
0 .0 0
0 .2 1
89.
90.
91.
92.
93.
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INSTRUMENTS..........................................
OPT ICAL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT....................................
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION.............................................................
61
8
56
102
82
120
22
127
262
186
8 38
82
58 0
898
81 8
689
98
682
578
568
0 .1 8
0 .0 3
0.1 5
0.3 1
0 .1 7
0.3 6
0 .0 5
0.3 8
0.3 2
0.3 1
98.
95.
96.
97.
98.
LOCAL TR A NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y EDS.......................................
TRUCK TRA NSPORTATION.....................................................................
WATER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
A I R TRANSPORTATION...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
360
116
13
107
6
775
266
30
232
18
988
6 05
68
787
31
1,1 2 2
7 66
80
1,0 3 2
38
0 .9 1
0 .3 1
0.0 8
0 .2 7
0.0 2
0 .6 2
0.8 3
0.0 8
0 .5 7
0 .0 2
99.
100.
1 01.
102.
103.
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING.......................................................
ELE CTRIC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
WATER AND SANITARY S E R VI C E S ..................................................
388
17
7 98
137
-7 8
755
86
1 ,9 8 9
385
-8 1
2 ,6 8 9
81
8 ,3 6 9
703
-837
3 ,8 6 2
86
5 ,2 8 7
82 9
-5 8 2
0 .8 9
0 .0 5
2 .2 9
0.8 1
-0 .1 0
1.9 3
0.0 5
2.9 2
0.8 6
-0 .3 0
108.
105.
106.
107.
108.
WHOLESALE TRADE...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE...........................................................................................
FI N A N C E .........................................................................................................
INSURANCE....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS ..........................................................
857
-383
118
151
0
1 ,2 3 6
-771
289
365
0
2,8 8 3
-1 ,11 1
781
7 78
0
3 ,3 2 3
-1 ,1 2 8
933
998
0
1 .8 5
-0 .9 1
0 .2 9
0 .8 3
0.0 0
1.8 5
-0 .6 3
0.5 2
0.5 5
0 .0 0
109.
110.
111.
112.
113.
OTHER REAL E S T A T E . . ........................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING PLA CES........................................................
OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI CE S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R V I C E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS I N G ..............................................................................................
879
117
87
732
32
1 ,032
191
104
1 ,6 8 2
68
2 ,8 5 7
853
828
3 ,8 9 2
166
3 ,2 8 6
835
5 78
5 ,0 8 3
22 3
1 .2 1
0 .2 2
0.1 2
1.9 3
0 .0 8
1 .8 3
0.8 6
0.3 2
2.8 0
0 .1 2
118.
115.
116.
117.
118.
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VI CE S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ........................................................................
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
199
99
9
-61
823
838
21 7
25
-173
822
1,180
58 7
95
-206
2 ,2 1 2
1 ,5 1 0
78 2
99
-213
2 ,8 2 3
0.5 1
0 .2 5
0 .0 3
-0 .2 0
0 .9 7
0.8 8
0 .8 1
0.0 6
-0 .1 2
1 .5 7
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S E R V IC E S .....................................................................
NONPROFIT O RG AN IZ AT IO NS .............................................................
POST O F F I C E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY CR ED IT CORPORATION...............................................
262
3
35
182
0
8 98
-7
78
388
0
1,602
22 6
25 0
983
0
2 ,0 8 9
287
30 3
1 ,3 0 6
0
0 .5 9
-0 .0 1
0 .0 9
0 .8 6
0 .0 0
1 .1 8
0.1 6
0.1 7
0.7 3
0.0 0
128.
125.
126.
127.
128.
OTHER FEDERAL EN TE RP RI SE S .......................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ENTE RP RISE S ....................
DIRE CTLY ALLOCATED IMP ORT S.....................................................
TRANSFERRED IMP O RT S ........................................................................
BUSINESS TRA VEL , ENTERTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............
0
21
3
0
0
0
52
5
0
0
0
107
10
0
0
0
128
12
0
0
0.0 0
0.0 6
0 .0 1
0.0 0
0 .0 0
0.0 0
0.0 7
0 .0 1
0.0 0
0 .0 0
129.
130.
131.
132.
133.
O FF IC E S U P P L I E S ...................................................................................
SCRAP, USED AND SECONDHAND GCODS.....................................
GOVERNMENT I N DU S TR Y ........................................................................
REST OF THE WORLD IND US TR Y .....................................................
HOUSEHOLDS.................................................................................................
283
505
3 0,581
0
583
7 29
81,921
0
0
1 ,2 9 5
1,162
60,861
0
0
1 ,6 7 5
1 ,2 8 7
69,1 85
0
0
0.6 8
0.8 6
8 9.2 5
0 .0 0
C.00
0.9 3
0.6 9
38.8 8
0.0 0
0 .0 0
138.
INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT..........................................
TO TA L ...............................................................................................................
0
59,091
0
8 5,1 17
0
1 89,100
0
1 79,800
C.00
1 00 .00
0 .0 0
100.00
°
18 3
TABLE B-15.
DIF.BCT REQUIREMENTS PEE DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970
(PRODUCERS• VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
LIVESTOCK
AND
LIVESTOCK
PRODUCTS
1
CROPS AND
OTHER
AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTS
2
AGRICULTURE,
FORESTRY
FORESTRY, AND
AND
FISHERY
FISHERIES
SERVICES
3
4
IRON ORE
MINING
5______
COPPER ORE
MINING
&
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS...............
CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.........
FORESTRY AND FISHERIES..........................
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND PISHERY SERVICES...
IRON ORE MINING. .. ........ ......................
. 166519
.286699
.000000
.018626
.000000
.057016
.025240
.000000
.039896
.000000
.056764
.059250
.017895
.043538
.000000
.095681
.287573
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.cooooo
.000000
.000000
.038088
.oooooo
.oooooo
. oooooo
.oooooo
.001088
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORB MINING...............................
OTHER NONFEHRODS METAL ORE MINING.............
COAL MINING......................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM..................................
STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING...........
.000000
.000000
.000204
.000000
.000069
.000000
.000000
.000021
.000000
.003532
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000001
.028894
.004435
.003596
.000000
.004316
. 241 503
.020254
.000770
. oooooo
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER MINING.................
NEW RESIDENTIAL BULIDING CONSTRUCTION.........
NEW NONBESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION......
NEW PUBLIC UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION..............
NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................
.000000
. 00 00 00
.000000
. 00 00 00
.000000
.001592
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
. 0 0 00 00
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
. 00 00 00
.00 00 00
.000000
.000000
.006407
.OOOOOO
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCT I O N.....................
MAINTENANCE AND EEPAIR C O NSTRUCTION...........
GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES............
OTHER ORDNANCE .................. ................
FOOD PRODUCTS......... ..........................
.000000
.005799
.oocooo
.00 00 00
.129156
.000000
.009608
.000000
.000000
.000075
.000000
.000000
. 0 0 00 00
. 00 00 00
.022827
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.018174
. 00 0000
.000479
.000000
.000000
. 00 00 00
.OOOOOO
21.
22 .
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING...........................
FABRIC, YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S.................
MISCELLANEOUS TEXTILES AND FLOOR COVERINGS....
HOSIERY AND KNIT G OODS..........................
APPAREL...........................................
.000000
.000000
,000526
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000378
.001496
.000000
.000000
.000000
. 00 00 00
.049422
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.033412
.000000
.000000
. 00 00 00
.000009
.000007
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000303
.000160
.oooooo
.oooooo
26 .
27.
28 .
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED TEXTILE PRODUCTS.....
LOGGING, SAWMILLS, AND PLANING MILLS..........
MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS....
HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE.............................
OTHER FURNITURE..................................
.001093
.000000
.000121
.000000
.000000
.002457
.005419
.000000
.000000
.001107
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.012315
.000000
.000000
.000000
.001725
.000000
.000000
.000000
.oooooo
.005265
.oooooo
.oooooo
. oooooo
31. PAPER PRODUCTS...................................
32. PAPERBOARD.......................................
33. PUBLISHING............ ..........................
34. PRINTING..........................................
35. CHEMICAL PRODUCTS................................
.000523
.000067
.000244
.000000
.001626
.000043
.000114
.000397
.000000
.014506
.000243
.000000
.000247
.000001
.001002
.000031
.050483
.000015
.000001
.000012
. 000184
.000000
.000025
.00001U
.018376
.000225
36.
37.
38.
39.
40 .
AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS..........................
PLASTIC MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC R U B B E R........
SYNTHETIC FIBERS.................................
DRUGS........... .................................
CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS...............
.000944
.000000
.000000
.004491
.000000
.044300
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
. oocooo
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000585
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
. oooooo
. oooooo
.000002
. oooooo
41 . PAINT.............................................
42. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS..............................
43. RUBBER PRODUCTS..................................
44. PLASTIC PRODUCTS.................................
45. LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODOCTS.,....
.000000
.006929
.001046
. 0 0 00 00
.000245
.000000
.035207
.003552
.000466
.000000
.002636
.019584
.000523
.000000
.000000
.000001
.002027
.000036
.000000
.001371
.000005
.008297
. 004691
. oooooo
.000003
46.
47 .
48.
49.
50 .
GL A S S .................................. ...........
CEMENT, CLAY, AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS...........
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.........
BLAST FURNACES AND BASIC STEEL PRODUCTS.......
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.........
.000252
.000000
.000044
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000281
.001 07 5
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000231
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000001
. ocoooo
.000000
.005180
.000260
. 022461
.000000
51 .
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS.................... ......
PRIMARY ALUMINUM...................... ..........
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL..
COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING.....................
ALUMINUM ROLLING AND D R A W I N G...................
. 00 0 0 0 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
. 00 00 00
. 0 0 00 00
. 00 00 00
.000000
. 00 0000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING..........
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODOCTS.......
METAL CONTAINERS.................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING FIXTURES.......
FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL....................
.000023
.000000
.000343
.000000
.000000
.000022
. 00 00 00
.000000
.013013
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000982
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.000152
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000551
.002963
61 .
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................... ......
OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODU C T S ................
ENGINES, TURBINES, AND GENERATORS.............
FARM MACHINERY...................................
CONSTRUCTION, MINING, AND OILFIELD MACHINEPY..
.001006
.000924
.000000
.000101
.000000
.000000
.001 273
.000000
.003896
.000000
.003000
.085223
.000000
.000000
.000000
.oooooo
.001128
.009418
.oooooo
.022632
.oooooo
.000486
.008507
.OOOOOO
.021401
.000000
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.000498
.000000
.cooooo
18 4
.000000
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.009467
.000000
.000000
.000000
.oooooo
.000000
.OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.0 00000
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.000000
.ooo ooo
.000028
.000002
.038158
.o o o ooo
,000000
.oo o o o o
.000001
.000001
.003203
.005105
.ooo ooo
.000001
. oooooo
.001598
.000056
.024696
.0 00000
.0 0 0 0 0 0
. OOOOOO
.0 00000
. oooooo
. oooooo
.oooooo
. oooooo
TABLE B-15. DIBECT REQUIREMENTS PEE DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1 970— CONTIN UED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
LIV ESTOCK
AND
LIVESTOCK
PRODUCTS
1
CROPS AND
OTHER
AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTS
2
FORESTRY
AND
FI S H E R IE S
AGRICULTURE,
FORESTRY, AND
FI SHERY
SERVICES
4
IRON ORE
MIN IN G
COPPER ORE
MINING
5
6
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000017
.000251
.00 1 05 0
.00 0 00 0
.000209
.000205
.00 3 16 4
.00 0 03 6
.00 0 00 0
.000358
.00 0 02 2
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 05 1
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 07 3
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.028107
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 7
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000193
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000055
.000000
.000264
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000183
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 25 9
.000047
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.001035
.00 0 09 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 1 15 7
.00 0 03 8
.00 0 00 0
.030199
.000000
.000016
.000006
.000231
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000213
.000304
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 14 2
.000233
.000000
.00 0 00 0
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . .
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT....................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS....................
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INSTRUMENTS.........................................
O PT IC AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQU IPMENT....................................
.00 0 00 0
.000006
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 25 1
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 42 3
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 05 3
.000000
.000290
.000000
.000000
.00 1 42 3
.00 0 00 0
.000448
.00 0 00 0
.000000
91.
92.
93.
9*t.
95.
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND SU PPLTES............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION.............................................................
LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPORTATION.................... .................................................
.00 0 00 0
.000060
.005629
.00 0 00 0
. 018641
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 06 3
.00 3 68 1
.00 0 00 0
.00 4 93 9
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 0 1 1 2
.001366
.00 0 00 0
.002532
.000000
.000002
.00 1 45 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 9 22 0
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.00 0 00 7
.00 9 57 7
.00 0 0 0 0
.00 4 31 8
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 4
.00 3 67 8
.000000
.00 2 67 8
96.
97.
98.
99.
100.
WATER T R A N S P O R T A T I O N . . . . . ........................................................
A I R TRANSPORTATION................. .. ......................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING................................................. ..
. 000332
.000057
.000136
.00 3 15 9
.000000
.000683
.00 0 57 1
.00 0 6 9 1
.004509
.00 0 00 0
.00 6 40 8
.01 5 97 4
.0 0 0 3 1 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000032
.01 3 99 3
.000029
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.03 4 60 1
.000222
.00 0 14 0
.001507
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 25 4
.00 0 11 6
.00 0 06 5
.001974
.000000
101.
102.
103.
1 04 .
105.
ELE CTRIC U T I L I T I E S .................................. ..................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................................
WATER AND SANITARY S ER VI CE S .............. ...................................
WHOLESALE TRADE ................................. ...............................................
R E T A IL TRADE..................................................................... .....................
.00 3 93 3
.000493
.000054
.02 8 63 8
.01 0 47 0
.00 3 48 7
.00 0 25 8
.003671
.022204
.011688
.000100
.00 0 00 5
.000000
.02 8 40 9
.00 7 3 3 1
.00 0 51 4
.000028
.000000
.02 4 37 9
.00 3 51 9
.018329
.003215
.0 0 1 8 7 3
.017298
.00 1 81 2
.020889
.003013
. 001776
.00 9 61 0
.00 2 11 3
106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
FI N A N C E .......................................................................................................
INSURANCE....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED D W E L L I N G S . . . . . . ..........................................
OTHER REAL ESTAT E ............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................
.003051
.003853
.00 0 00 0
. 0 1 107 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 4 48 4
.00 7 98 9
.000000
.07 0 05 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 60 6
.0 0 1 3 9 1
. OOCOOO
.000000
.000000
.00 4 00 5
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.022745
.00 0 00 0
.003395
.002556
.000000
.082015
.00 0 0 0 0
. 015159
.00 2 32 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 6 12 0
.000000
111.
112.
113.
114.
115.
OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI CE S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S ER VI C E S ................................. ..
A D V E R T IS I N G ............................................... ..............................................
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VIC ES ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R .............................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.005633
.000047
.00 2 08 0
.003701
.000000
.03 9 08 2
.00 0 44 3
.00 2 34 0
.007069
.000000
.00 0 52 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.004617
.00 0 00 0
.000026
.000000
.000000
.00 0 62 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 5 35 4
.017252
.0 0 3 6 2 1
.000984
.000000
. 006 034
.00 0 00 0
.005808
.00 0 98 7
116.
117.
118.
119.
120.
MOTION P IC TU RE S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S PI TA L S ....................................
HO S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S ER VI CE S .............. .. ...................................................
.000000
.000000
.01 9 45 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 0 0 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
•C00000
121.
122.
123.
124.
125.
NONPROFIT O RG AN IZ ATI O NS .............................................................
POST OFFTC E.............................................................................................
COMMODITY CRED IT CORPORATION...............................................
OTHER FEDERAL E N T E R P R I S E S . . . . ............................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EN TE RPRISES ....................
.00 1 72 3
.00 0 17 5
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000017
.00 0 41 7
.00 0 16 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000027
. 000000
.00 0 19 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 15 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 19 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000024
.00 0 53 5
.00 0 9 1 8
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 40 1
.00 0 70 0
.000752
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 37 2
126.
127.
128.
1 29 .
DIRECTLY ALLOCATED IMP O RT S.....................................................
TRANSFERRED IMP ORTS........................................................................
BUSINESS TRA V EL , EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............
O FF IC E S U P P L I E S . . ..............................................................................
T O TA L ............................... .. ............................................................................
.000068
.005803
.00 0 79 2
.000020
.757213
.00 4 35 8
.01 4 20 6
.001298
. 0 0 0 01 9
.46 2 51 4
.000000
.21 1 13 5
. 011073
.00 0 17 8
.65 0 57 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.0 1 0 4 0 6
.00 0 00 0
.27 1 57 1
.00 2 8 7 8
.00 0 1 8 1
.66 3 24 8
.000000
.040503
.004269
.000165
.51 7 96 8
3
66,
67,
68.
69.
70.
HA TE RIAL HANDLING EQUIP MENT..................................................
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
SP E CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY....................................................
GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP P R O D U C T S . . .............................................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000148
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 31 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000292
.000142
71.
72.
73.
71*.
75.
COMPUTERS AND PER IPHERAL EQUIPMENT...............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES.......................
SER VICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................
E LEC TR IC TRA NSMIS SION EQUIPMENT.......................................
ELE CT R IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.......................................
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
HOUSEHOLD A P P L I A N C E S . . . .............................................................
ELE CTRIC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ETS ........................................................
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................
OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT..............
.000000
.00 0 04 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
81.
82.
83.
81*.
85.
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS..................................................................
OTHER ELECT RIC AL MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V EH IC LE S .............................................................................. ..
A I R C R A F T . ...................................................................................................
S HI P AND BOAT B U IL D IN G AND R E P A I R .................................
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
18 5
:o o o i7 i
.678582
TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINUED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
OTHER
NONFERROUS
METAL ORE
MINING
7
COAL
MINING
CRUDE
PETROLEUM
8
9
STONE AND
CLAY MINING
AND
QUARRYING
10
CHEMICAL
AND
FERTILIZER
MINING
11
NEW
RESIDENTIAL
BUILDING
CONSTRUCTION
12
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODU C T S ...............
CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.........
FORESTRY AND F I SHERIES.........................
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY SERVICES...
IRON ORE MINING.................................
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000128
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000036
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000013
. OOOOOO
.000000
. OOOOOO
.000000
.001715
•OOOOOO
.008748
.000000
.000081
.OOOOOO
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE MINING................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE MINING.............
COAL MINING......................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM..................................
STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING...........
.000217
. 141022
.000550
.000000
.000624
.000000
.000098
.135985
.000000
.000291
.000000
.000018
.000002
.023668
.000000
.001541
.001041
.001696
.OOOOOO
.008215
.000224
.OOOOOO
.000701
. OOOOOO
.007911
.000000
.000000
.oooooo
. oooooo
.003613
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER MI N I N G.................
NEW RESIDENTIAL BULIDING CONSTRUCTION.........
NEW NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION.... .
NEW PUBLIC UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION.............
NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................
.001561
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000016
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
. 000000
.000752
.000000
.000000
.000000
.OOOOOO
.049580
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.000000
. OOOOOO
.oooooo
. oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
. ooo ooo
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTI O N.....................
MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION...........
GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES............
OTHER ORDNANCE ...................................
FOOD PRODUCTS....................................
.000000
.006606
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.003848
.000000
.000000
.000000
. 000000
.023990
.000000
. oooooo
.000000
•OOOOOO
.003265
.000000
.oooooo
.oooooo
. OOOOOO
.002539
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.000078
.oooooo
.000224
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000709
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING...........................
FABRIC, YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S .................
MISCELLANEOUS TEXTILES AND FLOOR COVERINGS___
HOSIERY AND KNIT GOODS..........................
APPAREL...........................................
.000000
.000015
.000061
.000000
.000014
.000000
.000000
.000001
.000000
.000000
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.000000
.000259
.000000
. oooooo
.000030
.oooooo
.000067
.OOOOOO
.oooooo
.OOOOOO
.000426
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.ooo ooo
.000087
.005520
.OOOOOO
.000428
26. MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED TEXTILE PRODUCTS....
27. LOGGING, SAWMILLS, AND PLANING MILLS..........
28. MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS___
29. HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE.............................
30. OTHER FURNITURE..................................
.000000
.004692
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.005713
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000008
.oooooo
.o o o o o o
. oooooo
.oooooo
.000014
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000000
.000358
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.000000
.OOOOOO
.032532
.063840
.013622
.001692
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS...................................
PAPERBOARD.......................................
PUBLISHING........................................
PRINTING..........................................
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS................................
.000264
.000000
.000033
.000042
.028974
.000403
.000000
.000018
.000004
.015647
.000159
.oooooo
.000042
.000001
.009851
.002631
.oooooo
.000017
.000025
.015675
.002840
.OOOOOO
.000016
. 000033
.028610
.004237
.000000
.000049
. OOOOOO
.001647
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS..........................
PLASTIC MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC RUBBER........
SYNTHETIC FIBERS.................................
DR UGS............................... ..............
CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS...............
.000000
.000211
.000000
.000000
.000006
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000001
.oooooo
. oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000000
.000112
.000000
.000000
.000009
.OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.000000
.oooooo
.000169
.000000
.OOOOOO
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
PAINT.............................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...............................
RUBBER PRODUCTS..................................
PLASTIC PRODUCTS.................................
L E A T H E R , F O O T W E A R , A ND L E A T H E R P R O D U C T S .....................
.000021
.004786
.004363
.000000
.000012
.000002
.008570
.010724
.000000
.000001
.000424
.005717
.001230
.000000
. OOOOOO
.000012
.021567
.025730
.000000
.000007
.000015
.007468
. 001998
. oooooo
.000009
.006548
.008332
.000866
.006317
.000000
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
GL A S S .............................................
CEMENT, CLAY, AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS...........
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.........
BLAST FURNACES AND BASIC STEEL PRODUCTS.......
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.........
.000000
.001619
.000235
.014381
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000969
.019617
.000000
. OOOOOO
.000134
.002953
.003553
.000000
.OOOOOO
.090179
.003830
.010033
.005380
.000000
.000678
.000216
.020208
.003751
.002119
.080816
.014067
.015160
.002566
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS...........................
PRIMARY ALUMINUM.................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL..
COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING......................
ALUMINUM ROLLING AND D RA W I N G...................
.000000
.000000
.000169
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.OOOOOO
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000000
.000035
.000000
.000069
.000004
.000000
. OOOOOO
.000000
.000221
.000022
.000000
.000000
.000117
.004768
.001030
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING..........
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.......
METAL CONTAINERS.................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING FIXTURES.......
FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL....................
.000059
.000017
.000000
.000000
.000436
.000026
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
. oooooo
. oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.003585
.000406
.000365
.000000
.000000
.001547
.001173
.000904
.OOOOOO
.000000
.001581
.009224
.000000
.000000
.021359
.054286
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS..........................
OTHER FABRICATED METAL P RODUCTS................
ENGINES, TURBINES, AND GENERATORS..............
FARM MACHINERY...................................
CONSTRUCTION, MINING, AND OILFIELD MACHINERY..
.000000
.004589
.008927
.000000
.017925
.000000
.005066
.019125
.000000
.038079
.oooooo
.001288
.002006
.000000
.002627
.000000
.002050
.022220
.000000
.023919
.000000
.000989
.008599
.000000
.025522
.000313
.017249
.000000
•oooooo
.000649
18 6
TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970— CONTINUED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
OTHER
NONFERROUS
METAL ORE
MIN IN G
7
COAL
MINING
*
CRUDE
PETROLEUM
STONE AND
CLAY MINING
AND
QUARRYING
10
CHEMICAL
AND
FE RTILIZER
MININ G
11
NEW
R E S ID E N T IA L
B U I L D IN G
CONSTRUCTION
12
8
9
.002428
.00 0 73 5
.000000
.000596
.050081
.00 0 31 7
.00 1 90 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 89 7
.005328
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 2 53 0
.00 0 04 7
.009865
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.011056
.004064
.00 8 50 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.002520
.002855
.00 1 73 7
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 78 6
.00 0 00 0
COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERA L EQUIPMENT...............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES.......................
SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................
ELE CTR IC TRANS MIS SION E QUIPMENT.......................................
E LEC TR IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.......................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 02 2
.000915
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 3 11 3
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 8 21 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 62 9
.003189
.000000
. OOOOOO
.000000
. 002439
.0 0 5 8 7 9
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.004027
.001698
.000089
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA N C E S .....................................................................
E LEC TR IC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ET S ........................................................
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT..............
.00 0 00 0
.000715
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 07 4
.00 0 00 0
.005685
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 0 3 4
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000439
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 59 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.001714
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 3 93 8
.013581
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 06 7
.000143
81 .
82.
83.
84.
85.
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS..................................................................
OTHER ELE CTRICAL MACHIN ERY............ ........................................
MOTOR V EH IC LE S ......................................................................................
A IR C R A F T ......................................................................................................
S H I P AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R .................................
.00 0 01 5
.00 0 18 8
.00 0 22 1
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000325
.00 0 51 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 3 13 1
.000082
.00 0 05 1
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000644
.001063
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000195
.00 0 22 6
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 69 6
.00 0 01 4
.00 0 00 0
.000000
86.
87.
88.
89 .
90.
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . .
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT....................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS....................
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INSTRUMENTS..........................................
O PT IC AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT....................................
.00 0 14 2
.00 0 00 0
.000101
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 2 75 4
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000415
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000039
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 32 9
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000060
.00 2 23 4
.000000
.00 0 00 0
91.
92 .
93.
94.
95.
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION.............................................................
LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.001195
.005213
.00 0 00 0
. 009243
.000000
.00 0 00 3
.010385
.00 0 00 0
.00 4 33 9
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 0 0 0 1
.000970
.00 0 00 0
.000746
.00 0 00 0
.000019
.002926
.00 0 00 0
.004543
.000000
.000027
.01 0 45 2
.000000
.009243
.00 0 00 0
.001084
.01 6 54 4
.00 0 00 0
.01 3 78 9
96 .
97.
98 .
99.
100.
WATER TRANSPORTATION......................................................................
A I R TRANSPORTATION...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION......................................................................
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING................. .....................................
.005045
.001099
.000436
.00 0 77 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 46 6
.00 0 22 0
.000145
.00 1 96 2
.00 0 00 0
.00 9 12 6
.000187
.00 1 02 6
.00 1 13 4
.00 0 00 0
.002230
.00 1 90 9
.00 0 40 5
.000371
.00 0 00 0
.012178
.0 0 0 7 0 4
.000346
. 0 05 4 0 2
.000000
.00 0 27 0
.000110
.000038
.004850
.00 0 00 0
101.
102.
103.
1 04 .
105.
ELE CTR IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
WATER AND SANITARY S ER VI CE S ..................................................
WHOLESALE TRADE...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE...........................................................................................
.01 9 89 3
.002871
.00 2 24 9
.022100
.002282
.027318
.000184
.000616
.02 1 25 8
.00 3 15 4
.008887
.00 4 53 9
.000480
.01 1 31 5
.00 3 00 2
.02 2 21 3
.003996
.00 2 49 6
.02 1 26 3
.00 4 01 5
.02 3 87 3
.021783
.004664
.01 9 55 2
.00 1 6 2 1
.002893
.00 0 49 6
.00 0 67 5
.05 2 72 5
.060096
106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
F IN A N C E .........................................................................................................
INSURANCE....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS..........................................................
OTHER REAL ES TA TE .............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................
.007027
.00 6 65 4
.000000
.041317
.000000
.005335
.0 0 6 2 5 1
.00 0 00 0
.02 5 69 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 5 29 1
.003965
.00 0 00 0
.18 7 96 0
.000000
.00 7 40 7
.005928
.00 0 00 0
.01 7 58 5
.00 0 00 0
. 0 07 4 8 2
.001307
.000000
.0 1 3 8 3 6
.000000
.003634
.002604
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 5 1 2 1
.00 0 00 0
111.
112.
1 13.
114.
115.
OTHER PERSONAL S ER VIC ES .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R VI C E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS I N G ..............................................................................................
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL SER VI CE S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ..............................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.005584
.00 0 00 0
.00 4 01 0
.00 2 19 0
.00 0 00 0
.008742
.000000
.006032
.00 3 45 0
.000000
.00 8 23 8
.00 0 00 0
.005071
.00 4 47 0
.000000
.00 7 38 2
.00 0 00 0
.00 5 22 8
.009399
.000000
.004922
.00 0 00 0
.006250
.00 1 48 5
.000000
.00 8 05 6
.00 1 33 8
.0 3 5 1 4 1
.004990
116.
117.
118.
119.
120.
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS.................................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ....................................
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S E R V I C E S . . . .............................................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
121.
122.
123.
124.
125.
NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS .............................................................
POST O F F I C E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY CR ED IT CORPORATION...............................................
OTHER FEDERAL ENTE RP RISE S........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EN TERPR ISES ....................
.000272
.00 0 75 4
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000518
.00 0 67 3
.000731
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000214
. 00 0377
.000508
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 2 5 1
.00 0 14 5
.000461
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 85 2
.00 2 11 2
.002281
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 99 9
.00 0 91 3
.000345
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 10 7
126.
127.
128.
129.
DIRECTLY ALLOCATED IMP ORTS.....................................................
TRANSFERRED IMPORTS........................................................................
BUSINESS T RA V EL , ENTERTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............
O FF IC B S U P P L I E S . . ..............................................................................
TO TA L ...............................................................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.21 4 48 2
.00 4 20 1
.000205
.65 8 40 2
.00 0 00 0
.007271
.00 4 46 1
.00 0 28 8
.42 4 27 6
.00 0 00 0
.06 8 48 3
.006571
.000318
.42 9 37 7
.00 0 00 0
.04 7 28 9
.00 4 98 0
.000247
.44 6 88 4
.00 0 00 0
.16 3 81 1
.00 2 74 5
.000208
. 510 4 94
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 6 98 5
.000226
.636915
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT..................................................
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY....................................................
GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP P R O D U C T S . . . . ........................................................
71.
72.
73.
79.
75.
18 7
TABLE B-15. DIRECT HEQDIREHENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OOTP0T, 1970— CONTINUED
(PRODUCERS' VALDE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
NEW NON
NEW
PUBLIC
NEW HIGHWAY
A L L OTHER
MAINTENANCE
R E S ID E N T IA L
B U I L D IN G
U T IL IT IE S
NEW
AND REPAIR
CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION
13
19
17
15
16
GUIDED
MISSILES
AND SPACE
VEHICLES
18
1.
2.
3.
9.
5.
L IVE ST OCK AND LIVEST OCK PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................
AGR ICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FI SHERY S E R V I C E S . . .
IRON ORE M I N I N G ...................................................................................
.000000
.001389
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000159
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 25 5
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 07 2
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 01 2
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE M I N I N G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G ..................................
COAL M I N I N G ..............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM...................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND QUAPRYING............................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 9 96 2
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 9 93 0
.0 0 0 0 0 0
. 000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.0 3 8 1 8 1
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 7 23 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.01 3 9 5 1
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 06 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
11.
12.
13.
19.
15.
CHEMICAL AND F E R T I L I Z E R M I N I N G ..........................................
NEW R E S I D E N T I A L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION.......................
NEW NO NRE SI DE NTI AL B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION..............
NEW P U B LI C U T I L I T I E S C ONSTRUCTION......................
NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION..........................................................
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00000O
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
16.
17.
18 .
19 .
20.
ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION.....................................................
MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION............................
GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS. ......................................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 19 5
.00 0 00 0
.000115
.000093
.000000
.000127
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
. 000102
.00 0 0 0 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 13 8
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000235
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 1 1 1
.00 0 00 0
.000800
.000366
.000336
.000000
21.
22.
23.
29.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING.............................................................
F A B R I C , YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S ..........................................
MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R I N G S . . . .
HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS................................................................
APPAREL.........................................................................................................
.000000
.00 0 20 2
.00 2 23 8
.000000
.00 0 90 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 29 9
.000000
.000351
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 56 9
.000000
.00 2 35 5
.000271
.000000
.00 0 38 2
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 1
.00 0 17 6
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 59 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000009
.000000
.00 0 90 0
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS FA BR ICAT ED T E X T I L E PRODUCTS............
LOGGING, SAWMT L L S , AND PLANING M I L L S .........................
MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S . . ..
HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................
OTHER FUR NI TUR E...................................................................................
.000925
.00 3 70 7
.01 0 8 9 1
.000196
.009918
.00 0 00 0
.00 8 98 5
.031165
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 72 0
.000000
.00 7 37 5
.00 9 36 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 5 22 5
.02 0 90 0
.000000
.001912
.00 0 00 9
.029800
.00 9 60 0
.000000
.000157
. 000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
31.
32.
33.
39.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD.................................................................................................
P U B L I S H I N G ......................................................................................... .. • .
P R I N T I N G .......................................................................................................
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS..............................................................................
.00 5 90 5
.000273
.000057
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 26 0
.001063
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 25 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 5 18 8
.00 1 26 2
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.01 1 93 0
.003539
.000000
.0 0 0 0 5 9
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 68 9
.000852
.00 0 00 0
.000389
.000001
.00 0 37 0
36.
37.
38 .
39.
90.
AGRICULTURAL CH EM IC AL S ................................................................
P L A S T I C MATERI ALS AND SYNT HE TIC RUBBER................. ..
S YN THE TIC F I B E R S ................................................................................
DRUGS...............................................................................................................
CLEANING AND T O I L E T PREPARATIONS....................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 05 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000101
.000100
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 87 9
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 09 9
.00 0 0 0 1
. 000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 1
.00 0 00 1
.00 0 10 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000086
91.
92.
93.
99.
95.
P A I N T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS....................................................................................
P L A S T I C PRODUCTS................................................................................
LEATHE R, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
.005093
.01 0 75 1
.00 1 70 5
.010520
.00 0 03 2
.00 0 65 5
.01 9 52 7
.002199
.00 1 21 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 9 21 1
. 097828
.002825
.000000
.000000
.001906
.09 0 75 2
.003191
.002819
.00 0 00 0
.09 3 26 2
.029818
.00 1 71 9
. 010600
.00 0 00 2
.000000
.002378
.002032
.00 2 38 0
.00 0 01 1
96.
97.
98.
99.
50.
GLASS...............................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS...........................
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND BAS IC STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
.001655
. 066735
.01 9 19 8
.01 3 57 9
.002692
.00 0 10 9
.095859
.027973
.09 3 80 0
.01 7 59 5
.00 0 00 0
.08 6 89 5
.00 2 03 5
.059985
.000301
.000226
.09 6 62 9
.01 6 68 9
.055069
.00 9 62 2
.005003
.019300
.006276
.011115
.00 2 71 7
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000003
.000638
.00 0 70 1
51.
52.
53.
59.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS...................................................................
PRIMARY ALUMINUM.................................................................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L . .
COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING.....................................................
ALUMINUM ROL LING AND DRAWING...............................................
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 09 5
.003915
.00 1 05 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 73 1
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
. 000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 95 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000156
.001718
.00 0 39 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 13 6
.000218
.000120
.00 5 00 0
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROL LING AND DRAWING..........................
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL CONTA INE RS ................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S .................
FA BRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL..................................................
.01 2 80 6
.0 0 0 1 1 1
.000000
.019881
.12 0 77 1
.07 8 88 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 59 1
.12 0 63 6
.000915
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.073199
.00 2 62 2
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 1 00 5
.09 3 90 8
.00 5 91 7
.000000
.000000
.01 3 00 0
.02 0 00 0
.00 1 06 9
.00 5 9 6 1
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
61.
62.
63.
69.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
EN G IN ES , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS.................................
FARM MACHINERY......................................................................................
CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MACHINERY..
.001631
.016511
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.001128
.00 3 26 5
.016965
.00 6 29 2
.00 0 00 0
.00 7 69 0
.000192
.01 1 03 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.010003
.006533
.01 8 36 9
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.029719
.000855
.01 3 58 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 01 9
.00 3 99 0
.00 0 00 0
.002751
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
18 8
TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PEE DOLLAR OF GEOSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINUED
(PPODUCEES1 VALUE - 1963 DOLLABS)
INDUSTRY
CODE
NEW NONNEW
R E S ID E N T IA L
PUB LIC
NEW HIGHWAY
A L L OTHER
MAINTENANCE
B U I L D IN G
U TIL IT IE S
CONSTRUCTION
NEW
AND REPAIR
CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION
CONSTRUCTION CONSTRUCTION
13
14
15
16
17
GUIDED
MISSILES
AND SPACE
VEHICLES
18
66 .
67.
68 .
69.
70.
MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT..................................................
METALHORKING MACHINERY..............................................................
S P E C IA L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.....................................................
GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
. 012837
.000565
.000000
.007248
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 12 3
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 4 94 7
.000113
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.001638
.00 0 80 4
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 89 8
.000247
.005800
.000021
.00 0 00 0
.002288
.000055
.000089
.00 2 02 6
.00 0 00 0
.001091
.000062
71.
72.
73.
74.
75 .
COMPUTERS AND PER IPHERAL EQUIPMENT...............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FFI CE MACHINES.......................
SER VICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................
E LEC TR IC TRANS MIS SION EQUIPMENT.......................................
ELE CT R IC AL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.......................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.017286
.01 0 56 6
.000569
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 1 96 5
.019556
.00 1 00 7
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000603
.00 0 87 7
. 000000
.000000
.0 1 2 8 0 0
.00 2 50 0
. 000 601
.00 0 01 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.003574
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA NC ES .....................................................................
E LEC TR IC L I G H T I N G AND H I R I N G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N SETS.................................... ...................
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT..............
.000031
.02 6 04 5
.000000
.000154
.000554
.000000
.015068
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.008634
.000000
.00 9 63 3
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 08 1
.00 0 77 9
.027331
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.003044
.010800
.000000
.00 0 01 1
.001105
.000000
.010000
.000000
.000000
.06 0 00 0
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER ELE CT R IC AL MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
A IR C R A FT ......................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R ..................................
.000152
.0 0 0 1 0 1
.00 0 03 2
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 29 7
.00 0 68 8
.00 0 17 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000947
.000298
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 1 06 9
-.000303
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000109
.000509
.000111
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 06 8
.000025
.393040
.000000
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U I P M E N T . . .
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT....................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS....................
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUMENTS .........................................
O PT IC AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT.....................................
.000038
. 000C70
.008386
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000373
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 43 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000407
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000005
.003364
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000890
.000177
.00 0 08 6
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION.............................................................
LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
.00 0 24 9
.001169
.01 0 07 8
.000000
.026038
.00 0 32 3
.000337
.009909
.00 0 00 0
.017001
.00 0 25 9
.003660
.0 1 3 7 0 9
.000000
.02 5 82 4
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 28 6
.00 9 38 9
.00 0 00 0
.015779
.00 0 00 9
.003367
.0 0 8 5 0 6
.00 0 00 0
.01 2 46 1
.00 0 00 0
.000129
.000420
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 18 2
96.
97.
98 .
99.
100.
HATER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
A IR TRANSPORTATION...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING.......................................................
.00 0 19 4
.000128
.000089
.00 4 46 8
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 78 3
.000249
.00 0 17 3
.00 2 50 6
.000000
.000886
.00 0 20 0
.00 0 27 9
.00 2 33 1
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 56 9
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 75 5
.002297
.00 0 00 0
.000413
.00 0 17 0
. 0 00 0 7 8
.005340
. 000000
.000034
.00 0 38 3
.00 0 0 3 3
.01 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
1 01.
102.
103.
104.
105.
E LEC TR IC U T I L I T I E S ..........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................................
HATER AND SANITAR Y S ER VI CE S ..................................................
WHOLESALE TRADE...................................................................................
R E T A I L TRADE...........................................................................................
.002660
.00 0 47 9
.00 0 62 6
.046195
.032373
.001451
.00 0 28 0
.000305
.036672
.01 4 47 9
.00 1 16 6
.00 0 30 0
.00 0 49 0
.04 3 96 7
.017555
.00 1 35 4
.000203
.000332
.05 2 27 0
.024757
. 003157
.000557
.0 0 0 7 4 1
.039874
.04 3 2 9 4
.002300
.00 0 3 6 1
.00 0 32 0
.01 1 04 6
.004781
106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
FI N A N C E .........................................................................................................
INS URA NCE .................................... ..............................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS..........................................................
OTHER REAL ESTATE..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING PLA CES .......................................................
.003335
.002646
.00 0 00 0
.00 4 90 1
.000000
.001491
.003979
.00 0 00 0
.002513
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 36 9
.007411
.00 0 00 0
.003230
.000000
.002087
.00 6 10 5
.000000
.00 2 73 6
.00 0 00 0
.003394
.004637
.00 0 00 0
.005801
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 67 5
.003046
.00 0 00 0
.008226
.00 0 00 0
111.
112.
1 13.
114.
115.
OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI CE S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R VI C E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS I N G ..............................................................................................
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VIC ES ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P AI R ..............................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.008151
.001362
.046696
. 004691
.00 0 00 0
.00 7 51 5
.00 1 28 1
.04 3 27 3
.00 2 55 0
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 9 5 4 3
.00 1 47 0
.083400
.0 0 3 0 7 3
.000000
.009766
.00 1 39 4
.04 0 41 6
.00 2 54 5
.000000
.010252
.00 1 07 7
.0 0 5 9 4 2
.005543
.00 1 85 4
.01 4 00 0
.000000
.00 6 62 8
.002820
1 16 .
117.
118.
119.
120.
MOTION PIC TUR ES ....................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT HO SPI TA LS ....................................
H O S P I T A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S E R V IC E S .....................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
121.
122.
123.
124.
125.
NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS .............................................................
POST O F F I C E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION...............................................
OTHER FEDERAL ENTERPRISES........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EN TERPR ISES ....................
.000854
.000349
.000000
.000000
.000124
.000475
.000195
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 56 2
.00 0 50 9
.00 0 15 6
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 2 9 1
.000518
.00 0 21 2
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 1 05 0
.001001
.00 0 39 7
.000000
.000000
.000408
.00 1 89 9
.003092
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000080
126.
127.
128.
129.
DIRECT LY ALLOCATED IMP ORTS.....................................................
TRANSFERRED IMPORTS........................................................................
BUSINESS TRA VEL , ENTERTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............
O FF IC E S U P P L I E S ...................................................................................
TO TA L ...............................................................................................................
.000000
.000000
.006626
.000197
.63 6 90 3
.000000
.000000
.00 3 54 7
.00 0 12 8
.644903
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.004750
.000103
.591282
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 3 64 8
.00 0 13 9
.535475
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 7 81 2
.0 0 0 2 4 5
.44 2 4 0 1
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.013259
.001999
.590863
18 9
.On O l
oo C
TABLE B-15.
DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPDT, 1970 — CONT1NUED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
—
INDUSTRY CODE
OTHER
ORDNANCE
FOOD
PRODUCTS
19
20
FABRIC,
TOBACCO
! YARN, AND
MANUFACTURING I THREAD
MILLS
21
22
! MISCELLANEOUS
TEXTILES
j HOSIERY AND
AND FLOOR
KNIT GOODS
COVERINGS
23
|
24
|
|
!
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK P RODUCTS...............
CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.........
FORESTRY AND FISHERIES..........................
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY SERVICES...
IRON ORE MINING..................................
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.203089
.078096
.003829
.000000
.000000
. 000000
.138024
.000000
.000000
.000000
.002596
.077391
.000000
.000000
.000000
.037543
.006251
.000000
.000000
.000000
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE MINING................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE MINING.............
COAL MINING......................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM..................................
STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING...........
.000000
.000000
.000321
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000515
.000000
.000124
.000000
.000000
.000330
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000738
.000000
.000033
.000000
.000000
.000299
.000000
.000000
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000221
.oooooo
.oooooo
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER MINING.................
NEW RESIDENTIAL BOLIDING CONSTRUCTION.........
NEW NONRESI DENT IAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION.....
NEW PUBLIC UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION..............
NEH HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000095
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION.....................
MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION...........
GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES............
OTHER ORDNANCE ...................................
FOOD PRODUCTS....................................
.000000
.000651
.0001 03
.052985
.000000
.000000
. 001 583
.000000
.000000
.160828
.000000
.001068
.000000
.000000
.000217
.000000
.001369
.000000
.000000
.001902
.oooooo
.001603
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000523
.ooo ooo
.001351
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING...........................
FABRIC, YARN, AND THREAD MILLS.................
MISCELLANEOUS TEXTILES AND FLOOR COVERINGS___
HOSIERY AND KNIT GOODS..........................
APPAREL...........................................
. 00 00 00
. 00 00 00
.000001
.000049
.000794
.000000
.000242
.000053
.000416
.000493
.193047
.000000
.000000
.000000
. 00 00 00
.000000
.316414
.046879
.003626
.000059
.o o o o o o
. 174471
. 085304
.011985
.000107
.oooooo
.241714
.000051
. 162078
.004474
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED TEXTILE PRODUCTS.....
LOGGING, SAWMILLS, AND PLANING MILLS..........
HILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD PRODUCTS....
HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE.............................
OTHER FURNITURE................. ................
. 00 00 00
.005532
.003356
.000071
.000616
.002216
.000000
.002139
.000004
.000000
.000000
.000000
.001778
.000000
.000000
.004555
.000000
.000021
.000018
.000000
. 035619
.OOOOOO
.000021
.000841
.000000
.OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS...................................
PAPERBOARD.......................................
PUBLISHING.......................................
PRINTING..........................................
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS................................
.000424
.002846
.000221
.000006
.006321
.012687
.016992
.000098
.008093
.003797
.007765
.018832
.000046
.014380
.000498
.003770
.004501
.000043
.000026
.024769
.012427
.007133
.000057
.000783
. 003996
.000430
.010038
.000061
.000003
.002713
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS..........................
PLASTIC MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC RUBBER........
SYNTHETIC F I BERS.................................
DRUGS.............................................
CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS...............
.000008
.000443
.000000
.000000
.000078
.000223
.001847
.000000
.003480
.000463
.000008
.019302
.000000
.000000
.000845
.000018
.000990
.122599
.000000
.001660
.000034
.018577
.202215
.OOOOOO
.001406
.000065
.OOOOOO
. 126425
.000000
.001393
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
PAINT.............................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS..............................
RUBBER PRODUCTS..................................
PLASTIC PRODUCTS................ ................
LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.......
.000002
.002608
.018156
.005687
.000072
.000007
.003158
.000526
.006500
.000034
.000001
.000415
.000017
.000000
.000012
.000488
.001441
.001445
.000643
.000055
.000004
.002016
.011564
. 012060
.000097
.000001
.001487
.000503
. 001311
.000089
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
GLASS.............................................
CEMENT, CLAY, AND CONCRETE P R O D U C T S...........
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.........
BLAST FURNACES AND BASIC STEEL PRODUCTS.......
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.........
.000000
.000000
.000002
.036557
.037214
.012616
.000011
.00001 1
.000037
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.003181
.000000
.000032
.000000
.000000
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.000933
.000000
.000071
.OOOOOO
.000000
.000001
.000001
. oooooo
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS...........................
PRIMARY ALUMINUM.................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL..
COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING.....................
ALUMINUM ROLLING AND DRAWING...................
.000000
.001265
.005511
.009517
.025749
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000013
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
. OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
. oooooo
. oooooo
. oooooo
. oooooo
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING..........
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.......
METAL CONTAINERS.................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING FIXTURES.......
FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL....................
.000994
.012849
.000000
.002576
.003126
.000000
.000000
.028699
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.002029
.000000
.000000
.000001
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000037
. OOOOOO
. oooooo
. OOOOOO
.000050
61. SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS..........................
62. OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS................
63. ENGINES, TURBINES, AND GENERATORS.............
64. FARM MACHINERY...................................
65. CONSTRUCTION, MINING, AND OILFIELD MACHINERY..
.013807
.012009
.001743
.000036
.001235
.002985
.003562
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.009581
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000007
.000506
.000000
.000000
.000000
•OOOOOO
.000389
. OOOOOO
.000011
. oooooo
19 0
.o ooooo
.000014
.000818
.0 00000
.o ooooo
.ooo ooo
.oooooo
. oooooo
•OOOOOO
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000316
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINUED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTBY CODE
OTHEE
ORDNANCE
19
l
FOOD
PRODUCTS
20
—
TOBACCO
MANUFACTURING
J_
21
F A B R IC ,
YARN, AND
THREAD
MILLS
22 _ j
MISCELLANEOUS
T E X T IL E S
AND FLOOR
COVERINGS
23
HOSIERY AND
K N I T GOODS
29
66.
67.
68 .
69,
70.
MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT..................................................
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.....................................................
GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MAC HINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
.000908
.00 7 91 3
.000900
.00 7 8 9 1
.00 6 59 7
.00 0 15 5
.000000
.000571
.00 0 08 2
.000075
.00 0 07 6
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 0 0 0
.000005
.00 0 00 5
.000250
.00 0 00 6
.005371
.000073
.000009
.00 0 19 7
.0 0 0 0 1 9
.00 2 95 3
.00 0 12 3
.00 0 00 5
.00 0 17 8
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 1 7 9 1
.00 0 2 9 1
.00 0 01 2
71.
72.
73.
7U.
75.
COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT...............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES.......................
SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................
ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT.......................................
ELECTRICAL I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.......................................
.00 0 00 0
.000019
.00 6 66 3
.000915
.006969
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 2
.000009
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
HOUSEHOLD A PP L IA NC ES .....................................................................
ELE CTRIC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N SETS........................................................
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT..............
.001315
.000221
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 59 3
.021659
.00 0 00 0
.000019
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000001
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 9
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 31 0
.000000
.00 0 0 0 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 9
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
81.
82.
83.
89.
85.
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER ELE CTR ICA L MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
A IR C R A F T ......................................................................................................
S HI P AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R .................................
.09 9 90 0
.00 8 0 6 9
.000096
. 095917
.000031
.000000
.00 0 11 0
.000039
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 7
.000002
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 01 3
.000009
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 0 1 2 0
.00 0 09 3
.00 0 00 5
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 01 2
.000005
.000000
.000000
86.
87.
88 .
89.
90.
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T . . .
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT....................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS....................
MEDICAL AND DENTAL I N S T R U M E N T S . . . ..................................
OP TI C AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT....................................
.00 5 63 9
.00 0 00 0
.01 5 0 9 1
.00 0 29 3
.03 8 92 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 19 9
.00 0 07 2
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000129
.000063
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 29 3
.00 0 19 1
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.001929
.000092
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000926
.00 0 20 9
91.
92.
93.
99.
95.
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION.............................................................
LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPORTATION......................................................................
.00 2 10 7
.00 0 15 5
.00 2 59 0
.00 0 00 0
.003959
.00 0 00 0
.000119
.011793
.000000
. 0 2 1 929
.000195
.000090
.00 2 21 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 3 6 5 9
.000000
.000093
.003925
.00 0 00 0
.00 9 11 0
.000000
.00 9 3 2 8
.00 2 97 7
.00 0 00 0
.006737
.000000
.009310
.000767
.000000
.005131
96 .
97.
98.
99.
100.
WATER TRANSPORTATION......................................................................
A IR TRANSPORTATION...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING.......................................................
.00 0 21 0
.000961
.000077
.007106
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 17 9
.000289
.0 0 0 0 6 1
.009298
.00 0 00 0
.000153
.000320
.00 0 0 2 7
.001090
.000000
.00 0 28 9
.000818
.00 0 09 6
.002500
.00 0 00 0
.003839
.000956
.00 0 10 5
.003190
.00 0 00 0
.000131
.00 0 93 6
.000058
.009061
.00 0 00 0
1 01 .
102.
103.
109.
105.
E LE CTR IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
WATER AND SAN ITARY SER VI CE S ..................................................
WHOLESALE TRADE...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................
.005139
.001193
.000352
.021300
.0 0 2 9 1 1
.0 0 3 8 2 9
.002269
.00 0 76 9
.092596
.00 1 86 8
.001991
.0 0 0 2 1 2
.00 0 15 8
.0 1 2 1 6 5
.00 2 9 0 7
.00 8 01 5
.001060
.00 0 56 7
.032261
.001133
.009878
.00 1 0 9 7
.000398
.0 5 5 9 0 6
.00 1 59 9
.00 9 00 7
.000726
.00 0 38 0
.02 5 10 0
.001028
106.
107.
108.
1 09 .
110.
F IN A N C E .........................................................................................................
INSURANCE....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS..........................................................
OTHER REAL ESTA TE ..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................
.0 0 0 8 6 1
.009169
.000000
.002087
.000000
.00 3 03 6
.00 3 23 6
.00 0 00 0
.00 5 20 8
.00 0 00 0
.002855
.00 0 78 7
.00 0 00 0
.002592
.00 0 00 0
.002366
.001299
.00 0 00 0
.00 3 79 6
.00 0 00 0
.002121
.00 1 73 5
.000000
.00 5 00 8
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 8 9 1
.00 1 2 9 1
.000000
.00 7 05 5
.00 0 00 0
111.
112.
113.
119.
115.
OTHEE PERSONAL S ER VI CE S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R VI C E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS I N G ..............................................................................................
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S E R VI C E S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ..............................................................................
.000932
.015135
.002289
.002700
.00 1 20 9
.00 1 68 9
.00 6 99 9
.023929
.00 2 58 7
.00 3 25 7
.001916
.003779
.059929
.00 1 20 0
.000231
.00 0 19 9
.00 5 59 2
.00 2 90 9
.001809
.00 0 90 6
.000369
.00 9 57 2
.00 9 22 3
.001537
. 000973
.000000
.00 7 58 5
. 009989
.002025
.00 0 99 8
116.
117.
118.
119.
120.
MOTION P I C T U R E S ......................................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS...............................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S PI TA L S .....................................
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S ER VI CE S ......................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
. 000000
.00 0 0 0 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
121.
122.
123.
129.
125.
NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS .............................................................
POST O F F I C E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION...............................................
OTHER FEDERAL ENTERPRISES........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EN TERPR ISES ....................
.00 0 6 2 8
.00 1 09 6
.000000
.000000
.00 0 0 6 1
.00 0 95 6
.00 0 89 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000396
.00 0 1 0 1
.002915
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 0 0 0
.000020
.000179
.00 0 79 7
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000137
.00 0 22 2
.00 0 97 9
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 10 9
.00 0 29 3
.001957
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000067
126.
127.
128.
129.
DIRECT LY ALLOCATED IMPORTS.....................................................
TRANSFERRED IMP ORTS ........................................................................
BUSINESS TRAV EL, EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S ............
O FF IC E S U P P L I E S ...................................................................................
TOTAL...............................................................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.01 1 90 8
.006665
.00 0 69 7
.637789
.012179
.01 3 9 9 1
.009238
.00 0 51 9
.73 8 17 3
.000000
.00 3 23 7
.00 8 72 5
.000237
.515975
.001378
.03 3 69 6
.00 3 09 7
.00 0 90 3
.79 5 05 5
.002901
.065590
.002791
.000306
.817973
.00 0 00 0
.00 9 80 5
.00 2 89 7
.00 0 9 1 1
.6 9 5 2 1 1
19 1
TABLE B-15.
DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PEE DOLLAE OF GROSS OUTPDT, 1970— CONTINUED
(PRODOCERS' VALOE - 1963 DOLLARS)
I N DOSTP Y CODE
APPAREL
25
1.
MISCELLANEOUS
FABRICATED
T E XT ILE
PRODUCTS
26
LOGGING,
SAWMI LLS ,
AND PLANING
M IL LS
27
MILLWORK,
PLYWOOD, AND
OTHER WOOD
PRODUCTS
28
HOUSEHOLD
FURNITURE
29
OTHER
FURNITURE
30
2.
3.
9.
5.
L IV E ST OC K AND L IVE ST OCK PRODUCTS....................................
CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.......................
FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S ................................................................
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY S E R V I C E S . . .
IRON ORE H I N I N G ....................................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.005960
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.028939
.1 5 9 6 2 9
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE H I N I N G ..............................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G ..................................
COAL H I N I N G ...............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM....................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY H I N I N G AND QUARRYING............................
.000000
.000000
.000029
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 06 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000067
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 27 0
.000000
.00 0 03 2
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000269
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 25 5
.00 0 00 0
.000000
11.
12.
13.
19.
15 .
CHEMICAL AND F E R T I L I Z E R M I N I N G .........................................
NEW R E S I D E N T I A L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION.......................
NEW NON RE S ID E NT IA L B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION..............
NEW P U B LI C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION..................................
NEN HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION...........................................................
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000018
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
16.
17.
18.
19 .
20.
A L L OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION.....................................................
MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION...........................
GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ...............................
OTHER ORDNANCE......................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS.........................................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 25 9
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000668
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 2
.000000
.00 3 09 1
.000000
.000000
.00 0 0 7 1
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 68 1
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000029
.00 0 00 0
.000698
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 98 2
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 03 5
21.
22.
23.
29.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING...................................................................
F A B R I C , YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S ..........................................
MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R I N G S . . . .
HOSIERY AND K N IT GOODS................................................................
APPAREL..........................................................................................................
.000000
.23 1 06 0
.00 9 29 5
. 1 70 3 9 9
.111920
.00 0 00 0
.39 9 56 9
.112097
.007713
.01 0 77 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000001
.000000
.00 1 57 8
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 09 9
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 19 2
.000000
.09 8 39 3
.03 0 20 2
.000000
.00 1 92 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 82 9
.021167
.000000
.001053
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS FABRIC ATED T E X T I L E PRODUCTS............
LOGGING, SA W MI LLS , AND PLANING M I L L S .........................
MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C T S . . . .
HOUSEHOLD FU R NI TU RE ........................................................................
OTHER FU R NIT URE ...................................................................................
.022688
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 2
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.10 8 25 1
.00 0 00 0
.003166
.000679
.000038
.00 0 09 7
. 212516
.033190
.00 1 02 3
.000019
.00 0 13 9
.252799
.13 2 95 3
.00 3 01 3
.000033
.00 0 69 8
.068096
.062030
.015897
.003931
.00 0 52 1
.02 3 96 8
.05 7 99 9
.01 8 13 7
.01 9 68 1
31.
32.
33.
39.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS......................................................................................
PAPERBOARD..................................................................................................
P U B L I S H I N G .................................................................................................
P R I N T I N G .......................................................................................................
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS..............................................................................
.00 0 51 8
.00 9 91 8
.00 0 08 7
.000009
.000069
.00 6 33 8
.00 7 15 7
.00 0 07 1
.000052
.00 0 05 1
.000569
.00 0 60 2
.00 0 11 0
.000002
.002252
.00 9 92 5
.002922
.00 0 07 3
.00 0 12 3
.015392
. 000796
.01 0 69 8
.00 0 10 7
.000002
.00 1 95 7
.00 0 79 6
.013795
.00 0 13 0
.00 0 06 1
.00 0 39 5
36.
37.
38.
39.
90.
AGRICULTURAL C H E M IC A L S ................................................................
P L A S T I C MATE RIALS AND SYN THE TIC RUBBER....................
SYN THE TIC F I B E R S ................................................................................
DRUGS...............................................................................................................
CLEANING AND T O I L E T PREPARATIONS....................................
.000109
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 08 5
.000182
.00 0 00 0
.00 8 56 9
.000000
.000179
. 000992
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000102
.000239
.00 3 99 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 06 9
.00 0 07 5
.00 0 13 1
.001697
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000078
.000169
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000170
91.
92.
93.
99.
95.
P A I N T ...............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS...........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS....................................................................................
P L A S T I C PRODUCTS................................................................................
LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.................
.000002
.00 0 59 9
.000919
.002001
.00 2 9 5 1
.00 0 00 2
.00 0 51 0
.00 3 36 6
.05 6 68 6
.001091
.001920
.00 7 30 8
.000996
. 000059
.000299
.00 7 67 3
.00 1 6 1 1
.00 0 22 7
.00 9 22 2
.00 0 27 2
.019985
.00 1 23 3
.01 3 2 0 1
.09 9 38 9
.000762
.01 6 06 7
.001538
.007925
. 077693
.00 0 80 8
96.
97.
98.
99.
50.
GLASS...............................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y , AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS............................
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.......................
BLAST FURNACES AND B ASI C STEEL PRODUCTS.................
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.......................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000001
.000002
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 50 2
.000000
.00 0 19 9
.000991
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000209
.003989
.006299
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 88 0
.000120
.009009
.01 2 87 9
.00 0 00 0
.006959
.00 0 00 0
.000011
.02 5 23 9
.00 0 00 0
.02 0 26 6
.00 0 58 2
.00 5 13 8
.09 1 10 6
.00 0 00 0
51.
52.
53.
59.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS...................................................................
PRIMARY ALUMINUM.................................................................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS M E T A L . .
COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING.....................................................
ALUMINUM ROL LING AND DRAWING...............................................
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000731
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 03 7
.000058
.00 0 00 7
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 1 18 2
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.006783
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 8 78 8
56 .
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROL LING AND DRAWING.........................
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.................
METAL CONTA INE RS .................................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S .................
FABRICATED STRUCTURAL METAL..................................................
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 12 2
.000028
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000095
.000000
.00 0 02 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 7
.002938
.00 0 0 0 0
.0 0 0 0 1 1
.000021
.000066
.001895
.00 0 03 8
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000372
.00 8 28 0
61.
62.
63.
69.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS................................................................
OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS.......................................
E NG IN ES , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS..................................
FARM MACHINERY......................................................................................
CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MA CHIN ER Y..
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000996
.00 0 21 7
.000906
.00 0 00 0
.000007
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.008139
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 3 29 9
.026025
.00 0 00 0
.000019
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 5 0 9
.061258
.000017
.00 0 17 8
.000000
.010738
.03 8 92 7
.00 0 00 0
.000961
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
19 2
TABLE B-15.
DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970— CONTINUED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
MISCELLA NEOUS
LOGGING,
FABRICATED
SAW MILLS,
TE XT ILE
AND PLANING
PRODUCTS
MILLS
26
27
APPAREL
25
MILLWORK,
PLYWOOD, AND
OTHER WOOD
PRODUCTS
28
HOUSEHOLD
FURNITURE
29
OTHER
FURNITURE
30
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT.................... ....................... ..
METALWORKING MACHINERY................................................................
S PE CI A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.....................................................
GENERAL IN D U S T R I A L MACHINERY...............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
.00 0 14 7
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000013
.000160
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 34 3
.000012
.000746
.00 0 00 0
.004637
.00 0 10 6
.00 0 14 0
.000402
.000011
.00 2 23 9
.00 0 63 3
.000046
.00 0 25 3
.000020
.00 0 03 0
.00 0 0 5 1
.000031
.00 0 19 5
.000556
.000169
.001460
.00 1 71 3
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT..............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES.......................
SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................
ELECT RIC TRANS MIS SION EQUIPMENT.......................................
ELE CTR ICA L I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.......................................
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000121
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 06 8
.000000
.000020
.000109
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000047
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000052
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 05 7
.004640
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 36 5
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
HOUSEHOLD A PP L IA N C E S .....................................................................
ELE CT R IC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N SETS........................................................
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS.................................
OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION E Q U I P M E N T . . . . . .
.00 0 00 0
.000006
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 01 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 0 0 6 6
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 01 0
.000016
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 11 2
. 000104
.00 0 1 4 8
.000000
.000000
.00 0 06 0
.00 0 05 5
.005914
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 27 4
.000000
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER ELE CTR ICA L MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
A IR C R A F T ......................................................................................................
SH IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R ..................................
.000023
.00 0 01 6
.000006
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 26 3
.00 0 01 7
.00 0 00 6
.00 0 11 9
.000069
.000095
.00 0 21 2
.0 0 0 0 7 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 41 6
.00 0 04 4
.00 0 02 8
.00 0 16 6
.0 0 0 1 9 1
.001471
.000042
.000015
.000000
.00 0 0 3 7
.00 3 15 2
.00 0 17 2
.00 0 03 5
.00 0 60 5
.000000
86.
87 .
88.
89.
90.
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T . . .
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT....................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS....................
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INSTRUMENTS..........................................
OP TI C AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT....................................
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 65 9
.000233
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 1 44 3
.00 0 14 2
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 48 3
.00 0 23 4
.00 0 04 7
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000361
.00 0 16 4
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 45 6
.00 0 06 0
.00 1 5 8 4
.000208
.000028
.00 0 00 0
.00 4 5 7 1
.00 2 43 2
.000233
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION.............................................................
LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.01 6 68 8
.000576
.00 0 00 0
.003665
.000033
.004031
.00 1 10 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 4 2 6 1
.000000
.000218
.009682
.00 0 00 0
.01 1 2 3 8
.00 0 03 6
.00 2 83 8
.01 5 85 2
.00 0 00 0
.01 0 45 4
.000000
.00 1 9 0 6
.008676
.00 0 00 0
.007947
.000002
.001266
.006985
.000000
.00 7 02 8
96.
97.
98.
99.
100.
WATER TRANSPORTATION......................................................................
A IR TRANSPORTATION...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................
.000058
.00 0 18 4
.000045
.00 5 0 5 1
.00 0 00 0
.000042
.00 0 23 5
.000058
.00 4 22 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 3 95 3
.0 0 0 6 2 1
.00 0 12 5
.004041
.000000
.00 2 71 4
.00 0 26 8
.00 0 06 5
.00 4 15 e
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 33 7
.000290
.0 0 0 0 4 3
.00 5 90 7
.000000
.00 0 17 8
.00 0 34 5
.000096
.00 7 38 8
.00 0 00 0
101.
102.
103.
1 09.
105.
ELE CTRIC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
WATER AND SANITARY S ER VI CE S ..................................................
WHOLESALE TRADE...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................
.00 2 26 0
.000166
.00 0 20 0
.03 0 84 9
.001695
.00 2 59 4
.000286
.00 0 4 8 1
.03 8 00 7
.002796
.00 7 93 3
.00 1 2 5 8
.00 0 36 2
. 02 0595
.001878
.00 6 55 7
.00 1 31 9
.000317
.032837
.00 1 90 2
.00 4 90 0
.000446
.000304
.03 7 7 0 3
.00 2 67 3
.005200
.001274
.00 0 29 5
.031745
.00 2 41 3
106.
10 7 .
108.
109.
110.
F IN A N C E .........................................................................................................
INSURANCE....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS..........................................................
OTHER REAL ESTATE..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................
.00 2 84 8
.001514
.00 0 00 0
.00 9 06 5
.000000
.002492
.00 2 17 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 6 16 1
.000000
.003913
.007608
.00 0 00 0
.00 5 59 3
.00 0 00 0
.003284
.00 1 97 2
.00 0 00 0
.00 8 78 9
.000000
.002868
.004832
.00 0 00 0
.01 6 58 0
.000000
.004698
. 006054
.00 0 00 0
.01 1 75 7
.000000
111.
112.
113.
115.
OTHER PERSONAL S ER VI CE S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S ER VI C E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS I N G ..............................................................................................
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL SER VI CE S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R .............................................................................
.000105
.004908
.00 4 58 2
.001450
.000611
.000452
.003770
.00 2 96 7
.00 1 45 3
.00 0 59 7
.00 0 00 0
.01 3 9 9 6
.001835
.003710
.00 5 60 0
.00 0 02 9
.00 6 82 9
.00 3 86 7
.002262
.00 1 08 3
.000206
.00 7 7 4 4
. 008876
.002117
.00 1 32 0
.00 0 20 5
.00 7 68 0
.00 5 96 3
.00 2 55 2
.001514
116.
117.
118.
119.
120.
MOTION P IC T U R E S ...................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S PI TA L S .....................................
H O S P IT A L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S ER VI CE S ......................................................................
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 0 0 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
121.
122.
123.
124.
125.
NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS .............................................................
POST O F F I C E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION...............................................
OTHER FEDERAL ENTERPRISES ........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT E NTE RP RI SES ....................
.000368
.002327
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000027
.00 0 30 9
.001419
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000097
.00 0 32 8
.00 0 50 3
.000000
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.000302
.00 0 33 7
.00 0 74 8
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000069
.0 0 0 4 4 1
.00 1 17 2
.000000
.000000
.00 0 06 4
.00 0 55 2
.001446
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000092
126.
127.
128.
129.
DIRECTLY ALLOCATED IMP ORT S.....................................................
TRANSFERRED IMP ORTS........................................................................
BUSINESS TR AVEL, ENTERT AIN MEN T, AND G I F T S ............
O FF IC E S U P P L I E S ...................................................................................
TO TAL...............................................................................................................
.000720
.005481
.004862
.00 0 56 7
.65 9 18 8
.000000
.003254
.00 4 34 1
.00 0 40 9
.77 2 55 6
.00 0 00 0
.065517
.00 2 98 2
.00 0 32 5
.64 8 6 0 2
.00 0 15 2
.051078
.00 5 12 5
.000422
.656075
.00 0 20 1
. OOOOOC
.00 7 06 3
.000638
.609838
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 5 61 5
.00 0 79 9
.583973
1 1 a.
19 3
TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINOED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
PAPER
PRODUCTS
PAPERBOARD
31
32
PUBLISHING
33
PRINTING
34
CHEMICAL
PRODUCTS
35
AGRICULTURAL
CHEMICALS
36
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS............. .
CROPS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS.........
FORESTRY AND FISHERIES.......................... .
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY SERVICES...
IRON ORE MINING..................................
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
. oooooo
.000000
.000000
.000000
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000000
.000000
.OOOOOO
.000000
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
•OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.000961
. 001582
.OOOOOO
.004564
.OOOOOO
.000030
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
6.
7.
8.
9,
10.
COPPER ORE MINING................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE MINING..............
COAL MINING......................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM.................................. .
STONE AND CLAY MINING AND QUARRYING...........
.oooooo
.000000
.005187
.oooooo
.004838
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000136
.oooooo
.000074
. oooooo
. oooooo
.000017
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000000
•OOOOOO
.000057
.oooooo
.oooooo
.002223
.003936
.003768
. 001807
.002175
.OOOOOO
.oooooo
.000095
.oooooo
.001068
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
CHEMICAL AND FERTILIZER M INING.................
NEB RESIDENTIAL BULIDING CONSTRUCTION.........
NEB NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSTRUCTION......
NEB PUBLIC UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION..............
NEB HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................
.001114
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.oo o o o o
.ooo ooo
.oooooo
.ooo ooo
.ooo ooo
. oooooo
. oooooo
.ooo ooo
.o o o o o o
.oooooo
.ooo ooo
. oooooo
.025904
. OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.075784
.OOOOOO
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
ALL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION................... .
MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION...........
GUIDED MISSILES AND SPACE VEHICLES............
OTHER ORDNANCE...................................
FOOD PRODUCTS......... ..........................
.oo o o o o
.o o o ooo
.ooo ooo
.oooooo
.002480
. oooooo
.oo o o o o
.001723
.001046
.001310
.000907
. oooooo
.007981
.000044
.000039
.000104
.001452
.OOOOOO
.003223
.OOOOOO
.000005
.012167
.010683
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING...........................
FABRIC, YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S .................
MISCELLANEOUS TEXTILES AND FLOOR COVERINGS....
HOSIERY AND KNIT GOODS..........................
APP A R E L ...........................................
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.ooo ooo
.oooooo
.ooo ooo
.006045
.003381
.000060
.000710
.oooooo
.000016
.000148
.000927
.oooooo
.000003
. oooooo
.oooooo
.000592
.004127
.oooooo
.oooooo
. OOOOOO
.000167
.000032
.OOOOOO
.000371
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.000402
.002235
.060444
.004020
.oooooo
. oooooo
.001142
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000008
.003635
.oooooo
.001855
.000018
.001948
.000990
.OOOOOO
.000003
.010685
.000050
.000664
.OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.ooo ooo
.oooooo
. oooooo
.oooooo
.oo o o o o
.oooooo
.ooo ooo
.0 0 0 0 0 0
. oooooo
. oooooo
. oooooo
.002614
. oooooo
.ooo ooo
26. MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED TEXTILE PRODUCTS.....
27. LOGGING, SAWMILLS, AND PLANING MILLS..........
28. MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER HOOD PRODUCTS___
29. HOUSEHOLD FURNITURE............................ .
30. OTHER FURNITURE..................................
.000005
.000062
.000061
.001633
.000061
.000036
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS.................................. .
PAPERBOARD...................................... . .
PUBLISHING........................................
PRINTING..........................................
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS.............................. .
.163199
.030038
.000506
.009201
.038685
.398785
.033318
.000167
.009365
.017345
.125000
.001601
.070043
.126304
.006363
.155107
.009318
.063589
.049744
.044256
.010119
.005265
.000123
.000036
. 157174
.025990
.002518
.000117
.000003
.343110
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS..........................
PLASTIC MATERIALS AND SYNTHETIC R U B B E R...... .
SYNTHETIC FIBERS.................................
DRUGS.............................................
CLEANING AND TOILET PREPARATIONS...............
.000024
.016954
.000000
.000007
.000869
.000047
.009074
.000000
.000055
.000129
.000138
.000000
.000000
.000068
.000296
.004996
.000000
.000085
.000077
.008167
.020458
.004592
.006662
.006275
.071046
.006542
.OOOOOO
.003053
.002703
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
PA I N T ............................................ .
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS..............................
RUBBER PRODUCTS..................................
PLASTIC PRODUCTS.................................
LEATHER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS.......
.000035
.008130
.004050
.024530
.000188
.000002
.006758
.000085
.005691
.000055
.000176
.001949
.001343
. OOOOOO
. 000014
.002904
.002854
.001795
.012733
.000066
.003946
.064634
. 001408
.000067
.000182
.002227
.011374
.000176
.001947
.000069
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
GLA S S .............................................
CEMENT, CLAY, AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS...........
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS.........
BLAST FURNACES AND BASIC STEEL PRODUCTS.......
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS.........
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.001 655
.OOOOOO
.000002
.000000
.000000
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.000004
.OOOOOO
.000000
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.000000
.000002
.000278
.000000
.000715
.002237
.000872
.006735
.002265
.OOOOOO
.000565
.000567
.000005
.000066
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS...........................
PRIMARY ALUMINUM.................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL..
COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING......................
ALUMINUM ROLLING AND DRA W I N G...................
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.ooo ooo
.ooo ooo
.oooooo
.o o o o o o
.oooooo
.001073
.003682
•OOOOOO
.000000
. oooooo
•OOOOOO
. oooooo
.000756
.001239
.009602
.000101
.000010
.OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
•OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROLLING AND DRAWING......... .
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS.......
METAL CONTAINERS.................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING FIXTURES.......
FABRICATED STRUCTURAL M ETAL....................
.000000
.oooooo
.000020
.oooooo
.000067
.OOOOOO
.001317
.OOOOOO
.009823
.000022
.000020
. OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.004362
.000072
.OOOOOO
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS..........................
OTHER FABRICATED METAL P R O D U C T S ................
ENGINES, TURBINES, AND GENERATORS.............
FARM MACHINERY...................................
CONSTRUCTION, MINING, AND OILFIELD MACHINERY..
.000034
.014211
.000000
.OOOOOO
.000000
.003 03 0
.004416
.000057
.006499
.OOOOOO
•OOOOOO
.000014
.OOOOOO
.000529
.OOOOOO
.000016
•OOOOOO
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.0 00000
.002124
.002261
.000106
.000053
.000000
.000000
.0 00000
.006927
.000000
.000154
.000000
.000000
.0 0 0 0 0 0
19 4
. oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000192
.oooooo
.oooooo
.oooooo
.000000
.o o o o o o
.000001
.000139
.000060
.000486
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.000199
.0 0 0 0 0 0
•OOOOOO
.000111
.003043
.0 00000
.000000
.OOOOOO
TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970 — CONTINOED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
PAPER
PRODUCTS
31
PAPERBOARD
32
P U B LI S H IN G
33
PRINTING
34
CHEMICAL
PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURAL
CHEMICALS
35
36
66.
67.
68.
69.
70.
MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT..................................................
METALBORKING MACHINERY ................................................................
S P E C I A L INDUSTRY MACHINERY.....................................................
GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY................................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS...................................................................
.00 0 61 9
.000008
.002439
.002234
.00 0 01 9
.000196
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 64 1
.000041
.00 0 02 6
.000105
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 99 9
.00 0 02 4
.000061
.00 0 18 3
.00 0 04 3
.00 3 18 0
.000672
.000027
.00 0 64 8
.00 0 39 0
.010088
.001778
.000020
.000282
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000194
. 0 00 03 1
71.
72.
73.
79.
75.
COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQU IPMENT...............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES.......................
SER VICE INDUSTRY MACHINES........................................................
ELE CTR IC TRANS MIS SION EQUIPMENT.......................................
ELE CTR ICA L I N D U S T R I A L APPARATUS.......................................
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000016
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 6
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 01 2
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 7
.000014
.001836
.00 1 04 9
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
76.
77.
78.
79.
8 0.
HOUSEHOLD APP L IA NC ES ......................................................................
E LEC TR IC L IG H T I N G AND W I R I N G ...............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N SETS........................................................
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS..................................
OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT..............
.00 0 00 0
.000030
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000058
.000007
.000009
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000021
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 01 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
. 000012
.000044
.000000
.000025
.000000
.000010
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
81.
82.
83.
84.
85.
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS...................................................................
OTHER ELE CT R IC AL MACHINERY.....................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ......................................................................................
A IR C R A F T .......................................................................................................
SH IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R .................................
.000000
.000206
.000018
.00 0 00 8
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 06 8
.00 0 01 3
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 07 5
.00 0 03 9
.000341
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 18 7
.00 0 04 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000063
.000037
.000018
.000004
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 04 4
.000016
.000000
.00 0 00 0
86.
87.
88.
89.
90.
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION E Q U IP M E N T . . .
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT....................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS....................
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUM ENTS..........................................
OP TI C AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT....................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 7
.000630
.000104
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 28 0
.000135
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000017
.000191
.000093
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 08 7
.00 0 38 4
.00 0 18 5
.000000
.000000
.00 0 01 1
.000130
.000064
.000029
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 16 7
.000060
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S ............................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS............................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION.............................................................
LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS.......................................
TRUCK TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
.001724
.00 0 36 0
.01 9 23 1
.000000
.012101
.00 0 0 0 0
.00 0 15 6
.018774
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 6 8 8 1
.009655
.00 0 11 4
.004999
.000000
. 00 2 8 1 1
.017692
.00 3 38 0
.00 6 28 4
.00 0 00 0
.00 4 22 0
.000095
. 001156
.0 1 1 9 2 5
.000000
.00 5 53 5
.00 0 00 0
.000049
.02 1 59 6
.00 0 00 0
.013488
96.
97.
98.
99.
100.
WATER TRANSPORTATION......................................................................
A IR TRANSPORTATION...........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION.....................................................................
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V ............................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING........................................................
.00 1 68 4
.0 0 0 1 9 1
.000119
.004343
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 17 5
.00 0 09 5
.00 0 05 9
.00 6 02 4
.000000
.00 0 03 3
.000050
.000038
.02 1 39 9
.000000
.000105
.00 0 15 5
.00 0 07 6
.006974
.000000
.001303
.000328
.00 0 20 4
.00 5 1 5 6
. 000000
.003009
.00 1 26 1
.00 0 14 8
.00 4 86 5
.000000
101.
102.
103.
104.
105.
E LEC TR IC U T I L I T I E S ...........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S .........................................................................................
WATER AND SAN ITARY S E R V I C E S ..................................................
WHOLESALE TRADE...................................................................................
R E T A IL TRADE............................................................................................
.01 3 01 6
.006039
.003556
.03 5 01 4
.002091
.005003
.00 1 16 8
.0 0 0 2 2 8
.020514
.001516
.0 0 3 2 0 7
.000353
.000272
.01 3 40 0
.006150
.005567
.000941
.000460
.02 0 24 0
.004311
. 016872
.019224
.00 2 02 3
.02 6 33 6
.002792
.008749
.002744
.000495
.038782
.003312
106.
107.
108.
109.
110.
F IN A N C E ..........................................................................................................
INSURANCE....................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS...........................................................
OTHEH REAL E ST AT E..............................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES........................................................
.00 3 17 9
.003004
.000000
.005751
.000000
.001874
.001641
.00 0 00 0
.00 8 59 0
.000000
.00 6 7 9 1
.00 1 46 3
.00 0 00 0
.062914
.00 0 00 0
.00 4 50 5
.001751
.00 0 00 0
.02 0 91 2
.000000
.003272
.002680
.00 0 00 0
.00 5 46 5
.00 0 00 0
.003332
.00 1 63 5
.000000
.00 2 81 8
.00 0 00 0
111.
112.
113.
1 14 .
115.
OTHER PERSONAL S E R VI C E S .............................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R VI C E S .......................................
A D V E R T IS I N G ........................................................ .. ...................................
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VI CE S ............................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ..............................................................................
.00 0 83 5
.009445
.005208
.00 4 09 5
.000872
.00 1 06 6
.01 0 64 9
.005094
.003380
.00 1 16 7
.000834
.02 2 05 8
.01 2 28 8
.008214
.0 0 2 9 0 9
.00 1 18 2
.010425
.00 4 90 6
.004031
.001254
. 000 40 1
.012801
.006539
.004874
.00 0 90 3
.00 0 1 0 1
.00 7 23 9
.00 9 62 7
.00 3 16 7
.00 1 32 3
116.
117.
118.
119.
120.
MOTION P IC TU RE S ....................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS................................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT HO S PI TA L S ....................................
H O S PI TA L S ....................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S E R V I C E S .....................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
. 000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
121.
122.
123.
124.
125.
NONPROFIT ORG AN IZ AT IO NS .............................................................
POST O F F I C E ..............................................................................................
COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION...............................................
OTHER FEDERAL ENTE RP RISE S........................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ENTE RP RISE S ....................
.000335
.000903
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 37 2
.00 0 45 6
.000854
.000000
.000000
.000058
.001880
.01 4 7 1 4
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000370
.000684
.005195
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000083
.00 0 3 5 9
.00 0 80 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 27 5
.00 0 41 3
.000343
.000773
.00 0 00 0
.006232
.000086
126.
127.
128.
129.
DIRE CTLY ALLOCATED IMPORTS.....................................................
TRANSFERRED IM PO RT S........................................................................
BUSINESS TR A V E L , ENTERT AIN MEN T, AND G I F T S ............
O FFI CE S U P P L I E S ...................................................................................
TO TA L...............................................................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.07 6 75 9
.0 0 5 3 7 1
.000465
.637330
.000000
.00 0 63 4
.00 3 7 2 1
.000551
.608317
.000000
.000000
.019005
.002083
.556928
.00 0 09 6
.000096
.013927
.00 1 21 2
.51 1 09 4
.00 4 22 0
.03 4 46 5
.00 7 15 9
.00 0 50 0
.591554
.002616
.023540
.00 9 12 0
.00 0 47 9
.750894
19 5
TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQUIREMENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970— CONTINUED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
PLA S TI C
MATERIALS
AND SYNTHETIC
RUBBER
37
SYN THETIC
FIBERS
38
DRUGS
39
CLEANING
AND
TOILET
PREPARATIONS
40
P A IN T
PETROLEUM
PRODUCTS
42
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
L IVE ST OCK AND LIVE ST OC K PRODUCTS..................................
CROPS AND OTHEF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS....................
FORESTRY AND F I S H E R I E S .............................................................
AGRIC ULTUR E, FORESTRY, AND FISHERY S E R V I C E S . .
IRON ORE M I N I N G .................................................................................
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
. 0 0 0 000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 60 5
.00 0 24 9
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000392
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
COPPER ORE M I N I N G ...........................................................................
OTHER NONFERROUS METAL ORE M I N I N G ...............................
COAL M I N I N G ............................................................................................
CRUDE PETROLEUM.................................................................................
STONE AND CLAY M IN IN G AND QUARRYING..........................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 62 8
.000000
.00 0 07 4
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 5 69 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000436
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 22 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 69 1
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 11 0
.00 0 00 0
.002114
.000000
.000000
.000406
.42907 )
.00 4 37 7
11.
12.
13 .
14 .
15.
CHEMICAL AND F E R T I L I Z E R M I N I N G . . . . ............................
NEW R E S I D E N T I A L B U L ID IN G CONSTRUCTION....................
NEW NO NR E S ID E NT IA L B U I L D IN G CONSTRUCTION............
NEW P U B LI C U T I L I T I E S CONSTRUCTION...............................
NEW HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION........................................................
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000501
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 03 1
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
16.
17 .
18.
19.
20.
A LL OTHER NEW CONSTRUCTION..................................................
MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR CONSTRUCTION.........................
GUIDED M I S S I L E S AND SPACE V E H IC L E S ............................
OTHER ORDNANCE....................................................................................
FOOD PRODUCTS......................................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 91 5
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 3 05 9
.000000
.001585
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 65 2
.000000
.00 2 96 4
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.02 6 04 2
.000000
.000894
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.033439
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 50 3
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.034114
.00 0 00 0
.01 2 10 8
.000000
.000003
.001086
21.
22 .
23.
24.
25.
TOBACCO MANUFACTURING................................................................
F A B R IC , YARN, AND THREAD M I L L S .......................................
MISCELLANEOUS T E X T IL E S AND FLOOR C O V E R IN G S . . .
HOSIERY AND K N I T GOODS.............................................................
APPAREL.......................................................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.000248
.000141
.000000
.00 0 31 6
.000000
.00 0 1 6 1
.00 0 06 0
.000000
.000637
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 33 7
.000001
.000000
.00 0 36 6
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 3
.000001
.00 0 00 0
.000347
.000000
.00 0 28 6
.00 0 00 1
.00 0 00 0
.000376
.00 0 00 3
.000002
.00 0 00 5
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 16 8
26.
27.
28 .
29.
30.
MISCELLANEOUS FABR ICAT ED T E X T I L E P R O D U C T S . . . .
LOGGING, SAW MIL LS , AND PLANING M I L L S .......................
MILLWORK, PLYWOOD, AND OTHER WOOD P R O D U C TS .. .
HOUSEHOLD F U R NI TU RE .....................................................................
OTHER FUR NITU RE .................................................................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.001454
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000332
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000201
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 08 4
.002074
.00 0 38 6
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000094
.000492
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000028
.000277
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
PAPER PRODUCTS...................................................................................
PAPEREOARD...............................................................................................
P U B L I S H I N G ..............................................................................................
P R I N T I N G ....................................................................................................
CHEMICAL PRODUCTS...........................................................................
.01 6 40 2
.006223
.000099
.0 0 0 0 0 1
.428251
.063733
.00 4 94 8
.00 0 12 4
.000002
.23 5 54 4
.00 4 20 9
.01 4 09 5
.00 0 17 4
.000301
.05 4 81 1
.01 1 74 0
.028651
.000117
.00 6 82 3
.11 9 84 3
.00 0 4 8 8
.00 7 06 1
.00 0 15 5
.000001
.20 5 8 2 1
.00 5 40 3
.00 2 93 5
.00 0 05 1
.000001
.03 1 07 8
36.
37.
38.
39.
40.
AGRICULTURAL CHE MI CA LS .............................................................
P L A S T I C MATE RIALS AND SYNT HE TIC RUBBER.................
SYN THE TIC F I B E R S . ... .......................................................................
DRUGS............................................................................................................
CLEANING AND T O I L E T PREPARATIONS.........................
.000941
.02 5 57 4
.00 9 39 5
.000000
.00 3 30 2
.00 0 00 2
.00 0 02 5
.000939
.00 0 00 0
.000271
.0 0 0 1 1 1
.003648
.00 0 00 0
.09 1 73 4
.015425
.003275
.00 2 95 9
.00 0 04 4
.02 9 16 0
.038871
.00 0 15 8
.102939
.00 0 00 0
.000167
.00 5 73 7
.00 0 01 2
.000020
.00 0 00 0
.000020
.00 2 36 4
41.
42.
43.
44.
45.
P A I N T ............................................................................................................
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS........................................................................
RUBBER PRODUCTS.................................................................................
P L A S T I C PRODUCTS..............................................................................
LEA THER, FOOTWEAR, AND LEATHER PRODUCTS..............
.00 5 01 3
.023354
.006265
.03 5 79 3
.000053
.00 0 00 1
.001342
.000216
.006401
.000081
.0 0 0 0 0 1
.00 2 45 0
.000998
.02 6 33 4
• 000028
.002277
•00893U
.003000
.07 6 83 5
.000017
.00 0 20 3
.039480
.00 0 30 5
.00 9 04 6
.000027
.00 1 00 6
.07 9 63 8
.00 0 07 2
.00 0 00 0
.000085
46.
47.
48.
49.
50.
GLA S S .............................................................................................................
CEMENT, C L A Y, AND CONCRETE PRODUCTS.........................
MISCELLANEOUS STONE AND CLAY PRODUCTS....................
BLAST FURNACES AND BASI C STEEL PRODUCTS..............
IRON AND STEEL FOUNDRIES AND FORGINGS....................
.00 0 16 3
.00 0 00 0
.000071
.00 0 03 3
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000001
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.0 1 7 7 9 1
.00 0 00 0
.00 1 04 4
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.017843
.00 0 09 8
.00 2 08 0
.000049
.00 0 00 0
. C 0 02 2 2
.00 0 62 6
.003134
.000009
.003008
.000000
.00 2 23 5
.001321
.000067
.00 0 00 0
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
PRIMARY COPPER METALS................................................................
PRIMARY ALUMINUM..............................................................................
OTHER PRIMARY AND SECONDARY NONFERROUS METAL.
COPPER ROLLING AND DRAWING..................................................
ALUMINUM RO LLI NG AND DRAWING.............................................
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000036
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 8 63 9
.000000
.00 0 00 0
. OOOOOC
.00 0 20 2
.00 0 17 3
.000000
.00 0 00 0
56.
57.
58.
59.
60.
OTHER NONFERROUS ROL LING AND DRAWING.......................
MISCELLANEOUS NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS..............
METAL CON TA INE RS ..............................................................................
HEATING APPARATUS AND PLUMBING F I X T U R E S ..............
FABRIC ATED STRUCTURAL METAL ...............................................
.00 0 02 3
.00 0 00 0
.003336
.00 0 00 0
.000039
.00 0 79 6
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
. 000000
.005857
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.02 6 71 4
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 05 0
.00 0 00 0
.069002
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 1 6 7
.00 1 78 3
.000000
.00 6 97 8
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 43 1
61.
62.
63.
64.
65.
SCREW MACHINE PRODUCTS.............................................................
OTHER FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS....................................
EN G IN ES , T U R B IN E S , AND GENERATORS...............................
FARM MACHINERY...................................................................................
CONSTRUCTION, M I N I N G , AND O I L F I E L D MACHINERY.
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 41 9
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000256
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 2 05 3
.003248
.000000
.000000
.000000
.00 4 24 4
.01 4 18 7
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000093
•00057U
.000000
.OOOOOC
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 3
.00 0 35 2
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
19 6
TABLE B-15. DIRECT REQOIREHENTS PER DOLLAR OF GROSS OUTPUT, 1970— CONTINUED
(PRODUCERS' VALUE - 1963 DOLLARS)
INDUSTRY CODE
P LA S TI C
MATERIALS
AND SYNTHETIC
RUBBER
37
SYNT HE TIC
FI BER S
38
DRUGS
39
CLEANING
AND
TOILET
PREPARATIONS
40
P AI NT
41
PETROLEUM
PRODUCTS
42
66 .
67.
68.
69.
7 0.
MATERIAL HANDLING EQUIPMENT...............................................
HETALWOBKING MACHINERY.............................................................
S P E C IA L INDUSTRY MACHINERY..................................................
GENERAL I N D U S T R I A L MACHINERY............................................
MACHINE SHOP PRODUCTS................................................................
.00 0 21 9
. 000000
.000000
.00 0 10 6
.000012
.00 0 34 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000317
.00 0 01 4
.000129
. 000000
. 000000
.00 0 01 0
.00 0 32 9
.00 0 08 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 01 3
.00 0 09 3
.00 0 01 2
.00 0 13 1
.000139
. OOOOOO
.00 0 13 6
.000022
.00 0 31 7
.000000
.000006
.00 0 11 8
.00 0 01 1
71.
72.
73.
79.
75.
COMPUTERS AND PERIPHERAL EQUIPMENT............................
TYPEWRITERS AND OTHER O FF IC E MACHINES....................
SER VICE INDUSTRY MACHINES.....................................................
E LEC TR IC TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT....................................
ELE CTR ICA L IN D U S T R I A L APPARATUS....................................
.00 0 00 0
. 000000
. 000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
. 000000
. 000000
.00 0 00 0
. 000000
.000000
.00 0 00 5
.000000
.000000
.00 0 01 4
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.000088
. OOOOOO
.00 0 01 7
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
. OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
HOUSEHOLD A P P L IA NC ES ...................................................................
ELE CTRIC L IG H T I N G AND H I R I N G ............................................
RADIO AND T E L E V I S I O N S ETS .....................................................
TELEPHONE AND TELEGRAPH APPARATUS...............................
OTHER ELECTRONIC COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT............
.00 0 04 2
.000003
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
.000006
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
. 000000
.000970
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000156
. OOOOOO
.00 0 00 5
. OOOOOO
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 01 9
.000028
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 3
.00 0 02 7
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
81.
82 .
83.
84.
85.
ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS................................................................
OTHER ELE CTR ICA L MACHINERY..................................................
MOTOR V E H IC L E S ...................................................................................
A IR CR A FT ....................................................................................................
S H IP AND BOAT B U I L D IN G AND R E P A I R ...............................
. 000000
.000016
.00 0 01 4
.000014
.000030
.00 0 00 0
.000017
.00 0 00 7
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 02 3
.000018
.000000
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 01 8
.000005
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 0 0 0
.000028
.000010
.000000
.00 0 00 0
. OOOOOO
.00 0 01 9
.000007
.00 0 00 0
.000000
86.
87 .
88.
89.
90.
RAILROAD AND OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQ U IP ME NT ..
MISCELLANEOUS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT.................
S C I E N T I F I C AND CONTROLLING INSTRUMENTS.................
MEDICAL AND DENTAL INS TRUMENTS.......................................
OP TI C AL AND OPHTHALMIC EQUIPMENT..................................
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000021
.000097
.000047
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000195
.000095
.00 0 00 0
.0 0 0 0 0 0
.000066
.01 1 7 5 6
.00 0 05 4
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 6 04 2
.00 0 04 4
.00 0 00 0
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.00 0 11 5
.000056
.000000
. OOOOOO
.000000
.00 0 04 8
.000023
91.
92.
93 .
94.
95.
PHOTOGRAPHIC EQUIPMENT AND S U P P L I E S .........................
MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS.........................
RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION...........................................................
LOCAL TRA NS IT AND I N T E R C I T Y BUS....................................
TRUCK TRANSPORTATION...................................................................
. 000000
.000074
.008648
.000000
.00 4 12 3
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 07 1
.01 3 98 4
.00 0 00 0
.004194
.00 0 0 4 1
.00 0 05 5
.00 2 6 4 0
. 000000
.006315
.000000
.003089
.008087
. OOOOOO
.00 8 75 8
. OOOOOO
.00 0 2 8 2
.008336
. OOOOOO
.007735
.000040
.000156
.00 2 89 4
. OOOOOO
.00 5 62 8
96.
97.
98.
99.
100.
HATER TRANSPORTATION...................................................................
A IR T RANSPORTATION.........................................................................
OTHER TRANSPORTATION...................................................................
COMMUNICATIONS, EXCEPT RADIO AND T V .........................
RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING.....................................................
.00 0 47 4
.00 0 19 7
.000037
.004101
.000000
.000746
.00 0 19 2
.00 0 04 1
. 0 0 6 22 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 2 1 1
.00 0 40 7
.000061
.0 0 7 8 5 9
.000000
.00 0 36 6
.00 0 41 6
.00 0 10 2
.004776
.00 0 00 0
.000714
.00 0 26 3
.0 0 0 3 4 9
.007196
. OOOOOO
.00 5 32 9
.00 0 05 9
.02 5 35 9
.001844
. OOOOOO
1 01 .
102.
103.
104.
105.
ELE CT R IC U T I L I T I E S ........................................................................
GAS U T I L I T I E S ......................................................................................
HATER AND SANITARY S E R VI C E S ...............................................
WHOLESALE TRADE .................................................. .............................
R E T A IL TRADE.........................................................................................
.0 0 7 9 6 1
.00 2 86 8
.00 1 04 7
.02 8 22 2
.002392
.00 4 34 6
.00 3 78 8
.00 1 05 9
.02 3 24 1
.001378
.003901
.00 0 65 1
.00 0 20 5
.02 9 46 0
.00 5 31 5
.002181
.00 1 02 3
.00 0 37 5
.031804
.004041
.003384
.000816
.000450
.0 4 3 8 9 9
.00 7 03 6
.00 6 41 3
.012490
.001357
.019956
.00 2 00 5
106.
107.
108.
1 09 .
110.
F IN A N C E ...................... .. .............................................................................
INSURANCE.................................................................................................
OWNER-OCCUPIED DWELLINGS........................................................
OTHER REAL ESTAT E...........................................................................
HOTELS AND LODGING PLACES.....................................................
.003822
.00 0 91 3
.00 0 00 0
.005716
.00 0 00 0
.00 5 83 3
.00 1 26 9
.00 0 00 0
.00 5 97 6
.000000
.006771
.00 1 81 4
.00 0 00 0
.01 0 36 0
. 000000
.00 3 77 7
.00 1 36 4
.000000
.00 6 73 9
.000000
.005380
. 001496
.000000
.00 7 55 2
.00 0 00 0
.009245
. 002744
. OOOOOO
.019165
.00 0 00 0
111.
112.
113 .
1 14.
1 15 .
OTHER PERSONAL S E R VI C E S ..........................................................
MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS S E R V I C E S ....................................
A D V E R T IS I N G ...........................................................................................
MISCELLANEOUS PROFESSIONAL S ER VI CE S .........................
AUTOMOBILE R E P A I R ...........................................................................
.000365
.008049
.010935
.003635
.00 0 58 5
.000226
.00 9 70 2
.01 3 96 2
.007699
.00 0 71 0
.00 3 21 8
.01 1 2 7 5
.07 6 31 3
.003379
.00 0 91 0
.00 1 40 3
.00 5 99 7
. 142203
.00 2 36 8
.00 0 54 0
.00 2 06 5
.00 5 69 3
. 016 804
.003139
.001054
.00 0 28 4
.013213
.01 1 74 7
.001375
.00 0 49 3
116.
1 17 .
118.
1 19 .
120.
MOTION P IC T U R E S ................................................................................
OTHER AMUSEMENTS..............................................................................
HEALTH SERVICES EXCEPT H O S P IT A L S ..................................
HO S P IT A L S .................................................................................................
EDUCATIONAL S ER VIC ES ...................................................................
. OOOOOO
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 00 0
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.00 0 00 0
.00 0 00 0
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.000000
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000000
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.00 0 00 0
• OOOOOO
.OOOOOO
.00 0 00 0
. OOOOOO
.00 0 00 0
121.
122.
123.
12 4 .
125.
NONPROFIT OR G AN IZ ATI O NS ...........................................................
POST O F F I C E ............................................................................................
COMMODITY CRED IT CORPORATION............................................
OTHER FEDERAL EN TERPR ISES .....................................................
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ENTE RP RISE S .................
.000289
.00 0 62 6
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 29 0
.000438
.000312
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000058
.0 0 0 5 5 4
.002358
. OOOOOO
. OOOOOO
.00 0 15 5
.000342
.00 1 85 3
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.000071
.000575
.001502
.00 0 00 0
.000000
.00 0 10 0
.00 0 12 0
.000742
.000000
. OOOOOO
.000106
126.
127.
128.
129.
DIRECTLY ALLOCATED IMP ORTS ..................................................
TRANSFERRED IMP ORTS......................................................................
BUSINESS TRA VEL , EN TE RTAINMENT, AND G I F T S . . . .
O FF IC E S U P P L I E S .................................................................................
TO TA L............................................................................................................
.000000
.01 1 43 9
.006694
.00 0 40 2
.689146
.00 0 00 0
.