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For release on delivery ll:00 ô.il., August 29, E.S.T. 1989 FINANCIAL REFORM: ASSESSING RISK. STRUCTURE. AND REGULATION " i: l,l :,i:LeerrHoskl fìs,r : p¡at I dent r Feder.al ,; Reser.ve',Bank :of :.Cl evel and Community Bankers of Pennsyìvanla Annual Convention t^lhlte. Sulphur Sprlngs, .l,lest Vlrglnla August 29, 1989 Financial Reform: Assessing Risk, Structure, and Regulation Good session, afternoon ladies and gentlemen. As a closing speaker at a multi-day I am alvrays a little anxious about the attendance, especially a beautiful resort as the Greenbrier. So, feeling a litt'le smug when I saw It's to wi was for prizes such relieved and, to be honest, the size of today's turnout; that learned about the wonderful drawing be present I in and the condition is, until I that you must n. always a pleasure Communlty Bankers well-managed, so to speak of Pennsylvania. to such a distinguished group as the Pennsylvania communìty banks are I don't have to spend time stressing the importance of the ,'"fundamentals,,of¡banking;,rthisigroup,;under.stands.andipractices;them.well. .Rather,'I'wouldilike to.,.talkr,about.the,need:,to:'reform'the'financial industry. Baslc regulatory reforms are needed to encourage a more resilient and, therefore, a more stable industry in a fast-paced, globa'l financial market. l.le can no longer rely on the system of rules the industry since the Depression. þle must and regulations that has governed allow market forces to guide the industry. It is my Íntent today to outline three key reforms necessary to reestabllsh market forces in the financial services industry. First, federal deposi , t i nsurance must be I lmi ted. Second, government authori ties must pursue supervi sory pol i ci es and practi ces rather than regul atory .:should,separate the deposit. insurance :function from supervi sory function. ones. Thi rd, we the'financial institution The Current Debate of the flnanclaì services industry has become a hotly debated.issue ln the 1980s. There ls a growlng realization that our bank and thrlft regulatory systems are ln need of reform. Prlvate sector estimates of the cost of cleanlng up the thrtft lndustry alone are over $124 billion, or over $l ,000 per tax return.t l.lhat's rnore dlscouragtng is that, without reforming the current system, lt ls entlrely posstble that the U.S. taxpayer wlll Reform confront future bailouts comparable to the present The thrift crisis. recently passed.Flnanclal Instttutions Recovery, Reform, and Enforcement Act of reguìatory aspects 1989 (FIRREA), of the thrlft partially deals wlth the fiscal problem by commlttlng $50 :,¡i:msney:'rto,:close,,r:rêorgani ze;j.ori'i:recapl.tal I ze ithe,iri nsol '.'thrlftl.industry. and billton ln new ventiportlon,:of ,:the :iSadìy,i;FIRREA;does i"not''',undertake ifundamental 'reform regulatory framework ln ways that wlll of our lncrease the efficlency and long-run stability of the banklng system and, ln turn, protect the publlc purse from losses generated by lnsured financlal institutions. Reformers can be separated role for regulation to ltmit role for management Proponents '..,market lnto two camps. bank povrers and One camp proposes an increased activities. This means a reduced discretion, shareholders' control, and market discipline. of "reregulatlon" base their reforms on a belief that ln banking, jsolutlons.are dangerously.unstable. . -In thelr view, .increased '.;.regulatlon'pr'otects:the.publlc.,purse,.from losses -by,prohibiting banks'and 'thrlfts from participating in activlties that are deemed "excessively risky." I believe advocates of increased reguìation are misguided in their notion that left to their own devices are inherently unstable. In fact, I beìieve the current thrift situation is evidence that attempts to increase financiaì markets the short-run stabiìity of the banking system through regulation efficiency and undermine the long-run stability of the bankìng 2- gnaw at system. I shape belong to the camp of reformers that the structure of the financial wouìd services industry. The driving force in any reform package should be the reestablishment in financial servlces. Thls means that those galns of rlsky strategies rely on market forces to of the risk-return trade-off who benefit from the upslde would be the same ones who would bear the downslde losses when such strategies do not pan well-functlonlng financial industry out. The linchpÍn to a ls a reduction in the scale and scope of federaì deposit insurance. This reform and the others I will talk about would relnvlgorate market forces, and thereby increase the efficiency and ìong-run stabtltty of the banklng system. l,lhv Markets? :,,iMarkets; provi de.::us : þrl th fthel¡besti:al I ocatl.on'',of lir"esgg¡ç95.r:ô.fìd':ihencê , the r:..ttþst:eff I cl ent,':sol utlon. ..'...A.lthough':fears "of Ìi nstabÍ ì i ty 'are'often -the ':pretext for regulatlon, I would argue that market solutlons wlll lead to greater stabllity. In practlce, markets have worked extremely well in providlng and servlces ln a varlety of lndustrles. Market-oriented economies have outperformed, and contlnue the world's stalwarts Republlc their of China -- goods to outperform, centrally planned economies. Even of lnterventlon -- the Sovlet Union and the People's are looklng toward the reestabllshment of markets in economies. 'i' In,the'United States, the trend during.the.late .l970s and early.l980s ': one'.of deregul ati on, : i nc I udi ng', deregul ati on, of : the,oi l, communicatlons, and transportation was and ; Çàs, industries. Deregulation in this country cannot necessarily be attributed to the ideological leanings of the Administration, since its impetus began during Jimmy Carter's Reagan term. Nor can of the U.S. economy and the world economy in generaì be attributed to the desÍre of governments and bureaucracies to give up economic the deregulation -3- or political power. Instead, I belleve that deregulation is due to a growlng recognition that markets produce the most efficient and stabìe outcomes. Furthermore, ln an increaslngly integrated global marketplace, competitors of the needs of the marketplace to survive. Similarly, lf our financlal lndustry is to prosper into the twenty-first century, we must must be acutely aware do away wÍth costly market insulation. Requlation and l.lhy lts Costs are reguìated flrms unable to compete wÍth the unregulated? Regulated lndustrles are unable to react flexlbly and efftcientìy to change. Regulated systems adapttng 'jill llke our current banklng and thrtft industrles, are less capabìe of to shocks 97-0s ; i,the;i.dl s i or changes ln markets, llke the lnflatlon of the late nf I ati on i of ,rtheliJ 980s ;¡:tethnol ogi cal:;,sþ¡¡ges ,:;1ot ','rne':entry iijunregul ated ;producers. '':Insteadiof ,'market-dri ven ''changes 'l n :resources 'and operations, the result often ls unforeseen changes .of ln the slze and mlx of regulatory taxes and subsldies. Exlsting regulatlons often become less effective or even counterproductive. In the financial lndustry, subsidies inherent in fixed-rate deposlt lnsurance, free because deposltory practices to take more advantage ' payments over wire transfer systems, and access to dlscount Federal-Reserve-operated credit increase in slze finaltty of of institutlons change their window business them. ',' , Not surprl si ngly, ,the response ,of . regul ated .systems to external .shocks l:usually,is..to attempt;to alterlthe'mix'.of.;'regulatory,taxes.and.'subsidies to accommodate the shocks. The regulatory response usually lags developments in the marketpl ace and ì s typi cal ly pi ecemeal . market innovations Usual ly, i t ei ther val i dates or reregulates areas where market forces regulations obsolete. Thi s may include instituting to limit or prohibit new nevr have made existing regulations designed activities that are deemed "too risky" (for -4- example, thrifts' in junk bonds); removing regulations that are no longer enforceable or too costly to continue (for example deposit rate ceillngs); or, modifying existing regulations (for example risk-based capltal standards for investments for thrifts). !,le have seen in the financlaì industry that the regulatory response ls to deal wlth the symptoms of the shock without allowing the system to adjust fully to the shock. More banks and RAP accountlng standards often than not, our policles tend to protect the regulators'weakest cllents at the expense of both the efflclent flrms ln the industry and the stabillty of the banking system. The current thrift lndustry collapse ls the most recent and promlnent example of thls flaw ln a system of strlct regulatlon. Inevltably, the costs of regulatlon escalate, and, as the thrlft sltuatlon lndicates, unless the costs are dealt wlth prompily, they can ^,, become ìii,'UncOntrol I abl e.r,r.l;ftsgul atory,-,1nter:ventlOnS;,1nà,rthei'barikl ng:lsyStem'ìhave "treated ;ian":environment;:ln.:whìch.marketr,:forces;tarelilgnored,soroften':that,profits'are difflcult to achleve withln the llmlted regulators are wl I I scope of actlvltles that the Íng to permit. Consequently, lncreased subsidies become to permit regulated entltles to compete with unregulated lnterlopers. As the taxpayers of this nation are witnessing, lt becomes very necessary costly to continue to protect the regulated. In addition, the presence of the subsldy adds to the temptatlon for polltlcal lnterests to treat entitles as public utllltles . i.,obJectlves -- CRA and asslgn them a laundry regulated list of soclal lendlng gutdel ines and I ifel ine. banklng, as examples 'i:"lregardless;of whether..or,,'not.the'businessesican make'a profit,doing so. ':" lnevitable result is the relative decllne efficient unregulated entities attract l'le have seen thi Advances in of the regulated sector as -,.The more customers abray from regulated firms. s trend in the banking industry since the early ì960s. communications and computer technology have increased the efficiency of financial markets and fostered the -5- deveìopment of new unregulated products, such as money market funds, which are substitutes for traditional banking products. Technoìogical innovation coupled with inflationary pressures of the 1970s and early.l980s eroded, and in instances compìetely broke down, the barriers between banks, the some thrifts, and other providers of financial services. Furthermore, with the gìoballzation of financial markets, U.S. banks met lncreasing competltion from forelgn banks in the internatlonal and domestlc markets. Increased competìtion from both foreign banks and nonbank provlders of financlal services has reduced banks' of the financlal services market from 36 percent in ì974 to 27 percent at the end of 1988. Total share of the financia'l services markets accounted for by banks and thrifts combined peaked at 55 percent tn ì974 and fell share ' conslstently throughout the 1980s to 44 percent in 1988.'? ,,'rt'Perhapsrithe,;most,.drainatÍci'exampIe"of;ther;-ultlmate;ishrihkage:of ,'{,regul ated isector;rri s,::the'::.current,:rrestructuri ngi'of :the ',thrÍ thrift lndustry FIRREA. that restrict or.prohlbit wlll :the ft 'i ndustry. 'The llkely shrink by at least one-thïrd in the next couple of years as the insolvent portion of the industry ls shut down. The increased efficiency of secondary mortgage markets and competitìon from mortgage brokers in primary mortgage markets seem likely to further diminlsh the size of the current thrift industry as the spread between the cost of funds for thrlfts and what they can earn on thelr mortgage portfollos narrows further. This squeeze on thrift earnings ls intensified by provisions in ., most thrift investments Ín potentiaì ìy profitable high-yield corporate.bonds, and,.require,:thrifts.to keep 70'percent ":',:1.:j'areasllike ' of their assets in mortgage-related assets. Market-Based Reforms Market-oriented reform of the reguìatory structure is necessary to ensure a stabìe, efficient financìaì industry and to guard against future multi-bilìion-doìlar rescues. To restore market 6- discipìine as an integraì part of the supervisory and reguìatory structure we must develop a supervisory for allowing banks of alì sizes to fail. Thts is important, because fallure ls the mechanlsm through whlch the market corrects persistent and substantial inefficÍencies and is a sure-fire way to reduce the subsidy tolerance associated with the federal safety net. Using market It discipline to replace regulation has many beneflts. First, of bank supervislon. The perverse lncentives for regulators to adopt pollticalìy motlvated forbearance policles are lncreases the effectiveness minimlzed. Speclfically, market discipline serves as a check on the overall it of regulatory capture by large and pol ltlcal ly tnfluentlal flrms in the regulated industry. Second, by reduclng access to funds, markets naturally curb the growth of weak supervlsory process and reduces the probabillty ':,r'i.lnstitutl ons:;and:rqu i ckl y*force:ithei:cl osure l of ,l;l nsôl veht';:i '.r.Aì though r,the among ns tl tutl ons . ¡market rl s i someti ¡s 5,'l r:harsh 'regu'l ator,""market iforce s -d i s cîi lnstltutlons accordlng to relatlve risks and not on the basls ml nate of slze or charter type. One caveat to note ts that the reforms that I propose assume the industry to which they are applied is healthy. This is especialìy true for deposit insurance reforms. Obviously this is not the case today for either banking or the thrift industry. Therefore, I the make these recommendations under ls utillzed to recapltalize, or close insolvent and -unsound f nstltutions. : FIRREA ls an the presumption that a transitlon perlod ::.rêorgð.rìize, '.',,important'first step'in this,dìrection.',::,Houlever,r considerably more needs.to 'be done before a comprehensive package of deposit insurance and regulatory reforms can be implemented. -7- Depos i t-Insurance Reform to any market-orlented is extensive of federal deposit insurance. The degree to which we implement fundamental reforms to federal deposit lnsurance wlll determine the nature and scope of reforms to the remaining regulatory structure. Restoring market discipl ine as an effective Key constralnt on bank and system reform thrift activities is the main purpose of in the coverage and priclng of federal deposit guarantees to eliminate or reduce the degree to whÍch the deposlt-insurance reform. Thls entails changes taxpayer subsidizes risk-taking by To restore proper managers, financlaì lnstitutions dlsctpllne to an institutlon's shareholders and federal deposit insurance coverage must be ìimlted and correctly .lrpniced.,.r:'Atl'the:,v€r!-:least,r,:thea,currentj:statutoryil'i'inf tl'of.ii$100;'000.per .,.1,,insured;:deposlt:,account:lat'ieach,';insured,rbanklshould.be"strictly:95rarved. institutlons, regard'less of slze or charter type, must be closed found to be insolvent, and deposit insurance coverage must to expllcitly uninsured deposÍtors, All when they are not be extended in creditors, and of the present limit would require some changes in failure-resoìution policies of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation the any circumstance s tockhol ders Strict unsecured . enforcement (FDIC). By seeking to minimize insured deposlt payouts, uninsured claimants ,'.'are protected, a practice whìch eventually evades market discipline and, as we :1,:,¡¡g'.5geingi'now,'great'ly,increases;long-term.uninsured,'claìfis;êxposuFêS. '' Furthermore,' strict enforcement of the deposit insurance cei I ing would ensure the equitable treatment institutìons regardless of uninsured depositors and other creditors of failed of size or type of charter. In fact, any ìegislative -8- of deposlt insurance must aìso come to grips with the "too big to let faiì" doctrine to ensure that all institutions are treated equally. Such reform changes would restore some measure of market disclpline to banklng and would let fail" doctrlne the burial it deserves. to truly reap the benefits of deposit-insurance reform, I give the "too big to However, that we must reduce the statutory limits to levels significantly below the limit. In establishtng current believe the new limit we should explicitly declde what ts the purpose of deposit lnsurance. It seems to me that the purpose is to provide a certaln amount of protection to depositors. It should not be to provlde competltive advantages to one class servlces. A slgniflcant reductlon ln of providers coverage would be of financlal qulte consistent with deposltor protectlon, reduced subsldles to regulated ftrms, and reduced .':ij,lIabLIl.ty,.for,itaxpayers.''ii:0nei;¡pos.sIbIIity:.would,,be:rto:rreduce:the'.ìimit,:from r:'$100,000;to, ':for'iexample,,, $25ï000,.perraccount;"'l ndexed 'to ''the Consumer :Pri Index (CPI). Such ce a reductlon ln coverage would be consistent with the desire to provide a safe haven for the savings of the maJority of this nation's cìtizens while reestablishlng large depositors as a form of dfsclpllne risk-taking. After all, on for inflation in the CPI is roughly equlvalent to the $2,500 limit originally established in 1934. Moreover, the average lnsured deposit account in both banks and thrifts is $25,000 today adJusted only about $8,000. .'i If'greater coverage were,deslred,.a coinsurance feature could.be added for "..itadditional'deposit balancesjabovet,the.$25,0OOiceilirì9..,j For.example,'the.FDIC couìd provide 90 percent coverage for coverage for coverage develop for balances up to $50,000,80 percent balances above $50,000 and less than $ì00,000, and 70 percent balances exceeding $100,000. Private insurance markets might to provide coverage for the coinsurance deductibìe portion of -9- the deposit for those depositors who desire 100 percent depositors with baìances in excess Treasury deposits of protection. Furthermore, $ì0,000 already have access to U.S. biìls, which are cìose substitutes for federally for liquidity purposes. guaranteed bank Supervision. Information. and Prompt Cìosure Instilling more market-driven incentives requires a sharp break ln tradition for both government authorittes the FDIC, the Comptroller, and the Federal of the flnancial industry. judgment of into the financial lndustry Reserve -- and you -- Rather than imposing unconditional managers, government -- like the managers ltmits on the authoritles should further reduce regulatlon this and loosen the regulatory reins on managers. Under approach, managers '.,,,andi,shareho'ldg¡5:!:al.ike,:would:be,:forced:to,morer',carefully':weigh'irisks':and share : Ín',the :outcomes',of :their.:'decisions. deposits will ;The' abi ì ity to attract'and emanate from successful business .maintain decislons, not a deposlt insurance subsidy from the taxpayers. of the industry, this type of world means less security provided by the government than in the past. l^lhile, on the surface, this may appear disruptive and uncomfortable, there are longstanding gains for For you, the declsionmakers you, your industry, and society. These reforms encourage a more stable more efficìent financÍal services industry than ' .The appropri ate roì : :. :to:' dl sti I ì ..the e. of ' fi nanci al condi tion standards; fi c body such as capi would monitor and supervise firms we have today. ti es i n . thi s reformed worl d government authori numerous, :,often.r speci and .of tal regul requi i s ations i nto, a .felr rements. The regul ator to insure that the prescribed financial condition guidelines were being observed. As ìong as the institution met the gui del i nes, restri ctions on behavior woul -l 0- d be mi nimal . of such a supervisory policy might take the form of a three-tier system of standards and restrictions. Institutions meeting the A good exampìe highest flnancial condition.standards would operate without any restric¡ons from the supervisor. Oversight wouìd be limited to detecting fraud and other irregularities ln the bank's operatlon, and collecting and dissemlna¡ng information. Institutions falling short of the standard would be subJect to restrictions. Instìtutions that falled to meet some deflned mlnimum flnanclal condition standards would be glven 90 days to recapitallze and reorganlze or be closed or sold by the supervisor.t 'Central to thls supervisory approach and increased market partlclpation is the tlmely dlssemlnation of lnformation. A prlme concern of the supervlsory authorlty would be to assist lnvestors and savers by provlding adequate .":i:nformationr.forriinf,ormedidecislonmaking.'í':,Exatn.inatlon:'ratings;::cease,and ¡,desisttorders,Ìsupervisoryiagreements;'.and:other"regulatory actions should be published by the supervlsory accounting firms should authorlty. In addltion, audlts by independent be required for al'l flnancial institutlons, although the frequency mlght also depend on how welì-capitallzed the instituilon Supervisory authorities, ln turn, able to identify and close troubled need r+as. timely, accurate informatlon to institutlons. be or the failure of institutions carries negative connotatlons, but what does failure actually mean? It Closure doesn't mean that the physical assets disappear, but that the failed ,'institution's resources are put.to.more efficient,uses. , Permitting banks to r'faiì'can:'strengthen;the banking,system,and the nation. r,. First,.the.very 'possibility of bank failure provides strong incentives to bank management to follow sound banking practÍces. Second, the reality of a bank failure is a powerful reminder to others. Finally, lìquidation of a bank prompts the reaìlocation of scarce labor and property resources to more efficient uses, and removes the need for taxpayer subsidies to prop the bank up. -l ì- Separatinq Supervision and Insurance at the Federal Level flnal proposed reform ls to separate the insurance and the supervisory functions. This is necessary to ensure prompt closure of insolvent My instltutions, and it serves as a check on overall regulatory ìaxity. By separating the insurance function from the supervision function, vle remove possible conflicts of interest between those two functions. For example, under the present system the deposit insurer could adopt a policy forbearance to cover up its ot'ln supervisory errors. of capital As an insurer, the deposlt insurance agency should have the strongest possible incentives to malntaln the value of its lnsurance fund. I suggest that insurers not supervise, and that they have greater control over the terms and conditions .'::'underi;íwhi chithey.itroù'l d :ôfferl,deposi t .i nsurance. "rIn,:addition'.to.,separating",¡¡s.'deposit:insurer:from'supervìsory responslbillties, the overly permi .requlres use of the deposlt lnsurance function as a check on sslve supervl sion, and on regulatory forbearance pol icies, some basic changes to the deposlt insurance functlon. First, the deposit insurer must have the right to immediately terminate insurance coverage in for deposits when it determines an ìnstitution is being operated an unsafe and unsound manner. Second, the deposit insurer must have the ablllty to , new 'lncludÍng to institutlons based on risk, regulator risk. The deposit insurer could even factor. lnto its charge differential premiums ¡'pricing.decisions,the.loss,experience.associated,with'each'regulator,'thereby establ i shi ng a pseudo-market price for regulatory services. would factor the deposit insurance premium when choosi ng a supervr sory counter to the provisìon of responsi bi I i ti es differential into their agency. Unfortunateìy, FIRREA Banks and some of -12- decision these changes run which increases the supervisory of the FDIC. thrìfts Conclusion of the thrlft bailout and the record number of thrift and bank failures in the past several years is evidence that our financial regulatory system has not resulted in a highly efflcient and stable financial services industry. 0ur current system of regulatory taxes and subsidies is unworkable, and likely to become more so, as lnnovative bankers manage to The enormous cost extend the deposlt insurance subsidy to new products and needs. It is tlme for us to make a choÍce between a reguìatory structure that relies more heavily on markets or one that relles on bureaucratic rules and pollttcal judgments. For me, the cholce is clear: if efficient and stable financlal system and want to avoid FSLIC-type bailouts in the future, we must i.choose':ai:market:or: i ented :sol uti on we want an . 'Ïo-'achieve 'a,:more:responsìve:imarket-oriented regulatory',system I have advocated a number of reforms including: Reducing the cost and the of deposit scope transfer of risk to the deposit insurance Relying on supervi sion, dissemination closure of i nstltutions instead Separati ng ,the deposi Reforms such as these effi ci ency and stabi I i ty will t insurance system and to minimize to the taxpayers. of information, and prompt of increased regulation. insurance and supervisory functions. help us achieve our goals of the financial from future ìoss. -t3- system and of long-run will protect the taxpayer Footnote s I The $124 billion lncludes $50 billion for prior case resolutions and $74 lì ion for restructuring lnsolvent thrifts. The $l 24 bil I ion estlmate does not lnclude financing costs of $81 billion ($150 billion) if the spendÍng is financed over I0 (30) years at current market interest rates. See Barbara Pauley, "The Thrift Reform Program: Summary and Imptications," New York: bi Soloman Brothers, April 1989. ' The financial services market is defined here as the total credit market debt clalms against domestic nonfinancial sectors. See t^I. Lee Hoskins, "Reforming the Banklng and Thrlft Industries: Assessing Regulation and Risk," M. Enole Lecture In Economic Securi , presented to the American ê99 ryn Mawr, ' t A simllar proposal can be found ln George J. Benston and George G. Kaufman, "Risk and Solvency Reguìation of Depository Institutions: Past Pollcies and Current Options," staff Memoranda 88-'1, Federal Reserve Bank of Chi cago. -14-