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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK JdF SAN FRANCISCO OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS ECONOMISTS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CHAPTER THE 26th ANNUAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE POST TAX REFORM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ROBERT T. PARRY, PRESIDENT FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO NOVEMBER 18, 1986 Current Forecasts of the Federal Budget Deficit (Billions of Dollars) 250-i 200 - 150- 100 ! 1985 , 1986 | 1987 ,------------------------------------------- [ 1988 1989 Bi l l i e Dol s of rs Bi l l i j n s of Do l a r s 720 720 700 700 680 680 660 660 64 0 640 620 620 600 600 580 580 560 560 540 i------- 1-------1------- 1------- 1------ 1-------1-------1------- i-------1------- 1-------1------ 1-------1-------1------- 1-------1------ 1------- 1-------1------- 1------ 1-------1-------i-------1-------1-------r - O N D 1984 J F M A M J 1985 J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 1986 M1 is the s u m of cu rr en cy, n o n b a n k tra ve le rs checks, d e m a n d deposi ts, and o t h e r checkable deposits. (1) Weekly data plotted t h r o u g h Nov. 3. Monthly data plotted f o r p r e vio u s periods. 540 M2 Billi* Do IS of Bi l l i irs ns of lars Dc 2850 2850 2800 2800 27 50 2750 2700 2700 2650 2650 2600 2600 2550 2550 2500 2500 2450 2450 2400 2400 2350 2350 2300 i i 0 N 1984 i D i i i i i J F M A M J 1985 i 1 1 i r i i-------- 1 J A S O N D i i J F 1986 r ' 'i M A i i M J i J i A i-------- 1---------1-------- 1-------- r S 0 N D M2 is M1 plus o v e r n i g h t RPs and Eurodollars, general p u rp o s e and b r o k e r / d e a l e r m o n e y m a r k e t funds, MMDAs, and savings and sma l ti m e deposits . 2300 B i l l i o n s of Dollars Billions of Dollars 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 1984 1935 ■ 1986 M3 is M2 plus large t i m e d e p os its , te r m RPs, te rm Eurodollars held by U.S. residents, i n s t i t u t i o n - o n l y m o n e y m a r k e t funds, and ter m Eur odollars held by U.S. residents at fo r e ig n branches of U.S. banks and at all banks in the United Ki ng d om and Canada. DOMESTIC NONFINANCIAL DEBT Billi ns of Dc ars Billio s of Doll i rs 7600 7600 740 0 7400 7200 7200 7000 7000 6800 6800 6600 6600 6400 6400 6200 6200 6000 6000 5800 5800 5600- 1 I O N D 1984 ! ! I I I ! I J F M A M J 1 9 85 ! ' H I i 1 I J A S 0 N D I ! ! ! : !-----------1---------- 1-------” 1----------!------ J F M A M J 1986 J I !-----------!---------- 1-----------1-----------1— 5600 A S 0 N D D om e stic N o n fi n a n c ia l Debt consists of o u ts ta n d i n g cre dit m a r k e debt of g o v e r n m e n t and private n o n f i n a n c i a l sectors,of the econc ■ny. exclu ding c o r p o r a t e equities.
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