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Cj/ffavsjpt’f j j' C^VMAALSCjL- 'Tffiulc /l/U££>Vvc jp AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW OF THE AMERICAN SOUTHEAST Mr. Robert P. Forrestal, President Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta May 1987 * ^ M L aI 2 6 , /-IS* My remarks today are intended to provide you with som e background information on the southeastern econom y, including that o f the region’s hub city, Atlanta. Most o f my comments will focus on the econ om ic structure of the area and its performance in recent years. However, I’ll have a few words about the outlook, and I’ll be happy to answer any questions you might have about what the future seems to hold for the Southeast or for the United States as a whole. W hat Is the S ou th east? Unlike New England and certain other regions of the United States that have clear geographic boundaries determined by history, culture, and econom y, there is no official designation or general co n sensus regarding which states make up the Southeast. While a num ber o f states share com m on historical traditions associated with the pre-Civil War South, contemporary econom ic activities are so di verse that defining the Southeast is rather difficult. The Federal Reserve Bank o f Atlanta—a part of the U.S. central bank— oversees all or portions o f six states—Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. These are generally regarded as core states o f the Southeast, although in recent decades Louisiana’s energy-based econ om y has com e to have m ore in com m on with its oil-producing western neighbors— Texas and O klahom a— than with the southern states w hose culture and history it shares. (Chart 1). - 2 These six states constitute a large region, whether measured in terms o f area or population. The Southeast covers nearly 8 0 0 ,0 0 0 square kilometers, a little more than the com bined areas of Italy, Switzerland, Austria, and East and West Germany. The population of this region is m ore than 33 million, nearly two-thirds that of Italy and almost 15 percent that o f the United States. Atlanta is the e co n o m ic center o f the Southeast. Within the city p rop er som e 4 3 0 ,0 0 0 people live— about half as many as in Zurich. However, as in many newer American cities, more and more people live and work in the suburbs. W hen we consider the larger but probably m ore meaningful unit o f the city and its suburbs, Atlanta’s population is about 2.5 million, closer to the population of Rome. These popula tion figures testify to the considerable size o f the southeastern market. Economic Structure What are the mainstays of the regional econom y? Many p e o ple, including a surprising number of Americans, still retain the his torical image o f the Southeast as primarily agrarian. Agriculture is an important element o f the southeastern econom y, but its relative role has shrunk greatly in the last 50 years as other sectors have out stripped its growth. Less than 4 percent of the area’s work force is em ployed in agriculture, and except in Mississippi, where one-tenth of the state’s output derives from agriculture, farm receipts make up 4 - 5 percent o f the personal incom e of southeastern states. Farmers in the Southeast have also m oved away from their historical reliance on cotton and a few other crops to a wide range of products, includ ing soybeans, tobacco, peanuts, citrus fruits, vegetables, rice, sugar - 3 cane, b eef cattle, pork, dairy products, fish, and poultry. This diversification has improved the profitability o f many southeastern farmers and has helped them to reduce the risk associated with rely ing on a single crop. Of course, certain natural resource activities remain signifi cant, but today they are closely integrated with secondary, or manufacturing, activities. Food processing, for example, is one of the four largest industries in six southeastern states as well as in the United States as a whole. Timber resources are also abundant in the Southeast. In fact, this region is able to supply nearly one-fifth o f the nation’s total lumber needs. In addition, the processing and man ufacturing o f w o o d products, including furniture as well as c o n struction materials, pulp, and paper are major industries. Energy resources also exemplify the ongoing importance of natural re source wealth to the Southeast. Louisiana and southern Mississippi have extensive concentrations of oil and natural gas, while Alabama and, to a lesser extent, Tennessee have abundant supplies of coal. Processing raw materials derived from petroleum and timber resources makes chemical production an important southeastern industry. H ow ever, stiff com petition from im ported products has caused som e retrenchment in the chemical industry. In spite o f the important role that natural resources play in the southeastern econom y, manufacturing has supplanted farming and other activities that involve extracting and processing raw materials, both as a means o f livelihood for most area residents and as a source of income. What are the leading industries? The region’s diversity precludes a single answer. The stereotype o f the Southeast as a land —4— o f textile mills has becom e anachronistic. Although the textile and apparel industries continue to be major com ponents of the area’s econom y and are proportionately larger than their counterparts elsewhere in the United States (Chart 2), employment in these industries has been undergoing a secular decline for over a decade. Meanwhile, other industries have been supplanting them. Steel p ro duction has long been important in Alabama but it has waned during the 1980s. More recently, the manufacture o f electrical and elec tronic machinery, especially that used in the defense and space p ro grams, has becom e a vital source of jobs and value added, especially in Florida, but also in particular cities in Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia. In Atlanta, for example, over 150 high technology firms operate in the metropolitan area, employing more than 6 2 ,0 0 0 p e o ple. Many of these are in the fields of electronics, telecom munications, and computers. Transportation equipment has also becom e a leading industry in som e states. Products range from ships built and repaired in Mississippi and Louisiana to cars and trucks p rod u ced in Tennessee and G eorgia and cargo planes manufactured in Atlanta. In Florida, aircraft, ships, and military and space vehicles dominate this industry. No description of the southeastern econom y would be com plete without discussing the service sector, which has contributed so much in the way o f job growth and cyclical stability. Rapid expansion o f all kinds o f services has been especially important in certain southeastern cities such as Atlanta and in the highly urbanized state of Florida, where services make up a much larger share of the econom y than is the case nationally. Since service-sector em ploy - 5 ment tends to fluctuate less over the business cycle, the urban Southeast has suffered far less in recent recessions than have areas that are heavily dependent on manufacturing. Many of these services— including banking, retail establish ments, and medical facilities— have increased at a fast pace to meet the needs of the area’s rapidly growing population. The same is true regarding the construction of homes, apartments, and co n dominiums. Other services, such as the Southeast’s major sea and air ports, have been expanded and modernized and now serve not merely as regional distribution centers but as national and even international nodes. New Orleans ranks am ong the busiest ports in the United States. Last year only New York City handled more ton nage. Atlanta’s Hartsfield Airport is the second busiest airport in the world (Chart 3). Moreover, Atlanta’s air traffic is located in a single airport, whereas the other cities boasting higher air travel— Chicago and New York— have two and three airports, respectively, thus mak ing connections less convenient. Furthermore, these and other sea and air hubs are linked with other transportation m od es— rail lines, waterways, and a system of interstate highways that are in many ways m ore m odern than those elsewhere in the United States because they were constructed later. Our m ajor water arteries include not only the Mississippi River but also the newly completed Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway, which connects several rivers in the Southeast by a series o f canals and locks. Its Gulf Coast outlet through the port of Mobile, Alabama, substantially shortens the inland water route for many shippers of bulk commodities such as coal. - 6 - Another regionally important service whose market extends beyon d the local population is tourism. Florida’s beaches, warm climate, and numerous recreational facilities attract visitors from the rest o f the country as well as from Canada, Europe, and Latin America. However, Florida does not have a m onopoly on the tourist trade. Other states have successfully marketed their unique o f ferings to vacationers. These range from the mountains of northern Georgia and Tennessee to the French and Spanish ambience of New Orleans. Another recent development is the market for conventions and meetings. Atlanta has greatly expanded its number of first-class hotel room s. T h ese lodging facilities together with its recently ex panded exposition hall—the Georgia World Congress Center— enable the city to host m ore convention delegates than any American city except Dallas, New York, and Chicago (Chart 4). Thus, the southeastern econom y is blessed by a structure that is well balanced between the production of goods, both raw and pro cessed, and services. I would not for a moment deny that certain areas have serious imbalances. Louisiana’s dependence on energy and petrochemicals, for example, has turned from a boon not long ago to bane today. Nonetheless, the overall com position o f the southeastern econ om y is an undeniable strength in its record of per formance. The Southeast has also benefited from the infusion of many new residents and businesses. Rapidly growing industries like defense and space are represented along with business and co n sumer services. This influx has helped to offset weaknesses in other areas and fostered remarkable growth. I would like to turn now to this growth and other aspects of the Southeast’s econom ic perfor mance in recent years. - 7 Economic Performance Probably the most salient characteristic o f the region’s e c o nom ic perform ance in the last decade or so is rapid growth. Whether measured in terms o f incom e or employment, the Southeast has expanded more rapidly than the United States as a whole (Charts 5 and 6). In som e localities the growth can be described only by superlatives. For example, over 75,0 0 0 new jobs were created in Atlanta last year, m ore than 3 times as many as New York City added. This econom ic expansion, along with the balanced econom ic com position, has also helped keep the unemployment rate in the two largest southeastern states— Florida and G eorgia— below the U.S. average, even during the recessions of the 1980s (Chart 7). What factors account for this growth? One I have already m en tioned is the concentration of high-growth industries and activities such as the produ ction o f technologically advanced electronic equipment used in the space and defense programs. Another critical element is the rapid in-migration of people to the region. Population growth has been far more rapid here than in most other areas of the nation (Chart 8), and this growth is less the result of high fertility than of the m ovement of people from other areas o f the United States to the Southeast. Population growth, particularly in-migration, tends to increase dem and for housing, stores, restaurants, financial institutions, entertainment facilities, and medical care and, thus, explains the rapid rise o f the service sector in states and localities which have gained the most new people. In recent years retail sales and residential construction in the Southeast, and particularly Atlanta, have outpaced the nation (Charts 9 and 10). - 8 Why are people moving to the Southeast in such numbers? Many individuals have relocated here during their retirement years to take advantage o f the region’s milder climate and generally lower cost of living. Others have co m e because o f em ploym ent o p p o r tunities. American businesses are decentralizing, particularly their sales and distribution operations. At the same time, they are shifting their location preference for many types of manufacturing as well as distributive activities. Both trends are motivated in part by a quest for greater efficiency. Com petitive pressures have been spurring American businesses in the last several decades to seek southeast ern locations because of the region’s cost advantages. These include lower wage levels, less burdensome taxes, relatively low land prices, and reduced distribution costs associated with readily accessible transportation networks and enhanced market proximity. These cost advantages as well as the area’s favorable business climate have drawn businesses and people and caused the southeastern e con om y to growth faster than the nation’s. Although o n e cou ld probably cite other causes for this outstanding record o f growth, the final one I will mention today is foreign investment. Like many American businesses, foreign firms have found it profitable to locate production, distribution, and sales facilities in the Southeast. Foreign direct investment, measured in jobs created, has been faster in the Southeast than in the United States as a whole (Chart 11). Many people are aware of som e of the major foreign plants, such as Nissan’s truck and auto assembly fac tory near Nashville, Tennessee, but such well-publicized facilities are 9 - com plem ented by a host of smaller-scale foreign investments in southeastern factories, shopping centers, office buildings, ware houses, and marketing operations. International financial institu tions also abound in the region. O ver a hundred international financial institutions, including departments of American banks, branches and agencies of foreign banks, and international banking and finance corporations are located in the Southeast. Economic Prospects and Problem Areas Looking ahead through the end of 1 9 8 7 ,1expect the region’s econom y to grow at a faster pace than the national average but not as rapidly as it has in the past several years. Two main forces will pro pel expansion in the Southeast— a continuation o f population growth, particularly in Florida and the Atlanta area, and a turn around in the trade deficit brought about by the decline o f the dollar’s value against foreign currencies. My outlook for econom ic strength derives for the most part from the beneficial effects of p o p ulation gains on the service and trade industries. Construction activity, which is normally boosted by in-migration, is likely to remain strong only for single-family houses, while building of offices, retail space, and multi-family dwellings will probably be weak. One reason for this developm ent is the substantial overbuilding that occurred over the past few years. It will take time for all the existing space to be absorbed. Another factor is the 1 986 Tax Reform Act, which is less favorable to many types o f real estate investment. - 10 - The second positive factor, an improvement in the American trade deficit, will occur, I believe, because of the substantial currency realignment we have had. According to our research at the Federal Reserve Bank o f Atlanta, the dollar has fallen som e 27 percent from its peak in 1985 (Chart 12). This should be sufficient to provide manufacturers of export products with stronger demand at hom e as well as overseas. Over the last two quarters exports have begun to pick up at the same time that imported goods were growing more expensive to domestic consumers. The Southeast’s important paper industry has already been helped by currency realignments, and its automakers appear to be benefiting also. Until recently, however, the dollar had failed to depreciate against the major currencies o f Canada and the newly industrializing countries o f the Pacific rim. Consequently, the Southeast’s forest products industry, w hose greatest com petitors in softw oods are Canadian, and apparel makers, who com pete against clothing manufacturers in Taiwan, Korea, and H ong Kong, still await better market conditions. For tunately, this situation has finally begun to show som e progress, and the dollar is also on a downward trend against most o f those co u n tries’ currencies. Since the margin of decline is still quite small, though, the amount of near-term improvement I foresee for some traditional southeastern industries— and those areas dependent on them— may not be very dramatic. I d o n ’t want to make it sound as if the Southeast has no econom ic problems. In several states the unemployment rate is higher than the national average. I have already observed how excessive dependence on energy resources has com e to haunt Louisiana and southern Mississippi now that petroleum prices have — 11 - slackened in today’s glutted world markets. Similar conditions in agriculture are hurting not only the region’s farmers but also local industries that produce and handle farm supplies. For example, the value of exports and imports handled by som e major southeastern ports like New Orleans declined (Charts 13 and 14) because the shipments they handle are heavily concentrated in farm and energy commodities. In contrast, port activity nationwide rose moderately last year. Furthermore, Louisiana’s petrochem ical industry and Florida’s phosphate manufacturing have been adversely affected by waning demand for fertilizers occa sion ed by a worldwide surfeit o f agricultural commodities, falling prices, and the formerly high value of the U.S. dollar. However, it is important to keep these problem areas in perspective by em phasizing that they are confined to specific states and localities within the region. Conclusion Thus overall the strengths associated with high-growth indus tries and a balanced econom ic structure indicate a bright future for the Southeast, despite the problem s currently besetting certain industries and areas of the region. There is every reason to expect that the trend o f relocation and decentralization of factories, ware houses, sales offices, and even research and development facilities by businesses, both domestic and foreign, will continue to favor the Southeast. This trend should bring with it ongoing expansion of employment in these firms as well as growth o f related services. Thus, if, as I expect, U.S. econom ic growth continues for the foresee able future at the moderate but respectable pace we have experi enced of late, the southeastern econom y promises to perform even better than that of the nation in the coming year and well beyond. Chart 1 THE SOUTHEAST Mississippi Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Chart 2 COMPOSITION OF SOUTHEASTERN AND U.S. MANUFACTURING 1986 S.E. Employment Employment Machinery 22 % Apparel Machinery Apparel 12% 15% Textiles Textiles Transportation 7% 4% Equipment Transportation 10% Equipment 9% u.s. Chemicals 6% Other 41% Other 43% F e d e ra l R e s e rv e B a n k o f A tla n ta Chemicals 5% Chart 3 AIRLINE PASSENGERS 1986 Chart 4 CONVENTION ATTENDANCE 1986 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Chart 5 AGGREGATE INCOME GROWTH, 1 9 7 0 - 8 5 Chart 6 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, 1 9 7 0 - 8 6 Chart 7 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, 1 9 8 0 - 8 7 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Chart 8 POPULATION GROWTH, 1 9 7 0 - 8 6 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Chart 9 RETAIL SALES GROWTH* 1 9 7 8 -8 6 * Sales at stores selling furniture, apparel, home appliance and general merchandise. ** Southeast total includes ONLY the states of Florida, Louisiana, Tennessee and the Atlanta MSA. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Chart 10 GROWTH OF RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 1 9 7 0 -8 6 Chart 11 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN FOREIGN SUBSIDIARIES 1 9 7 7 -8 4 Chart 12 VALUE OF U .S . DOLLAR CURRENCY INDICES Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Chart 13 CHANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PORT ACTIVITY, 1 9 8 5 - 8 6 E xp orts P ercen t C h an ge January through June F e d e ra l R e s e rv e B a n k o f A tla n ta Chart 14 CHANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PORT ACTIVITY, 1 9 8 5 - 8 6 Im p o rts P ercen t C h an ge January through June F e d e ra l R e s e rv e B a n k o f A tla n ta
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