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ADDRESS BEFORE ANNUAL MEETING OF MORRISTOWN CHAMBER QP COMMERCE February 4, 19*47 6*30 p.m., City Hall, Norristown *At f'* iy>\ \S X & , 5 I « ^ , , Or&v? urcAX** - i ^ - | •i;* uX.: u.*-s~.4 111v^\_> 4«*A.. , * Introduction — ------------------- ' ,^- « * * * -* ^ Allen Glenn's request for 25-40 minute t&uL Hard for economist - "a textbook wired for sound.N Unlike radio, where standard unit is 15 minutes, standard unit is one hour* Harvard man or equivalent. Squeeze the universe - past, present, future into a half hour. What to include and what to leave out* Making decisions wears me out (post holes, plowing, apple sorting). - 2 - 1« How well off are we? A. Labor market 1. Strikes and threats of strikes 2« Yet employment at 58 million 3. Montgomery County a* Manufacturing employment: 1939 -r a , 100 Dec. 19^6 - 59,000 - Just under 1943 peak of 59,100 b. Well diversified: Metals and textiles In Norristown also food products B. Income and outgo 1. We know of shortages: housing, auto mobiles, durable goods; yet 2. National income at $164 billion vs. $71 billion in 1939 3* Montgomery County manufacturing pay rolls 1939 - $50 million Dec« 1946 - $147 million (annual rate) C. Trade 1* Prices have 2« Debits 1939 1946 have gone up but retail sales doubled in Norristown - $116 million - $271 million Hm Conclusion t Bum well off are we? « w Bettor than before but not as snob as some of the made »ill indioat«. - 3 - XI* Where do we go from here? A. lln _ ** |p i 3o~ The X. 2* 3* prophets of doom Predicted post V-J slump - wrong Now excited about inventories - analysis Inadequate wages - profits spent B Meaning of present confusion X* Reassertion of rights 2* Democracy has indeed won the victory C* Our future lies in our own hands Rights - responsibilities Income and liquid assets Pressure still upward More apt to blow off the ceiling than to break through the floor D. Montgomery County - elements of strength X* Unimportance of agriculture 2* Importance of services 3* Diversity of manufacturing LIQUID ASSETS (Estimated) (Billions of dollars) Dec. 1939 June 1946 Personal (including corporate trustees) Currency................. ........... Demand deposits.............. ••••••••• Time depos its......... ...... ........ U. S. Government securities........... Total.................... 4.2 8.3 24.3 8.9 45.7 20.8 28.2 47.7 55.3 152.0 Business (corporate and unincorporated) Currency. •••••••••......... ...... . Demand deposits......••••••.... •••••• Time deposits Total.................... 1.6 12.6 2.0 3.2^ 19.4 4*8 34.7 3.2 27.8 70.5 Increase ♦ ♦ + ^ 4 16.6 19.9 23.4 46.4 106.3 ♦ 3.2 4 22.1 4 1.2 4 24.6 4 51.1 INFLATION POTENTIALS P e 8 k ssasaaoBH Latest Julv 19/2 - 286 Mar« 1943 - 132 Oct. 1943 - 227 207 132 167 1943 - 126 1943 - 135 153 181 June 1943 • 179 275 (l939 average « 100) Physical magnitudes Construction ............ . Employment (nonagricultural)•••••••• Prices noppiimers (coat of 11v1,ng) Wholesale prices................ Monetary magnitude Deposits and currency outside banks* May May
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