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Current Growth, In ation and Price Level Developments in the U.S.
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May 26, 2017
Presentation (pdf) | Press Release
In a lecture at Keio University in Tokyo, St. Louis Fed
President James Bullard said that the U.S. price level is
falling short of the 2 percent path maintained between
1995 and 2012. The gap between the current price level,
measured by the personal consumption expenditures price
index, and the previously established path has now
widened to 4.6 percent. He also said that U.S.
macroeconomic data have been relatively weak, on
balance, since the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) met in March and raised the fed funds rate.
Financial market readings since then have moved in the
opposite direction of what would typically be expected.
“This may suggest that the FOMC’s contemplated policy
rate path is overly aggressive relative to actual incoming
data,” Bullard said. He also discussed the relationship
between unemployment and in ation and said that, even if
U.S. unemployment declines substantially further, the
effects on U.S. in ation are likely to be small.

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