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An n u a l A d v e r tising Sales Conference of the Minneapolis Star and Tribune Radisson Hotel J a n uary 16, 1967 The A m e r i c a n s ’ thirst for information is insatiable. As collectors and purveyors of facts, newspapermen are properly grateful, if not surprised, to be reminded of this circumstance. Unfortunately, even the simplest fact never stands alone, nor would any reader allow it to. In addition to those relationships it may possess legitimately, the fact is given additional ones usually of a gaudier, more appealing nature in the context of the reader's prejudices. where newspapermen -- and speakers -- get into trouble. And this is No newspaper should ever be judged by the prejudices of its readers, nor should a speaker. Few topics indeed are as emotion-charged as a discussion of the next hundred years in the Ninth Federal Reserve District -- unless perhaps it would be the significance of the m a j o r happenings of the past hundred years in this great region -- assuming general agreement on what those major happenings were. But we are better prepared at least to speculate about the years ahead of us than our great grandparents were. Thanks to the Upper Midwest Research and Development Council, we have a defensible base in the optimistically termed neutral projections. These are logical extensions of trends that, unless interrupted, will deliver us to certain goals by 1975. I thought a few of these might sketch an outline of one of the possibilities -- and then it might be instructive to speculate a little about some of the exogenous variables that might change this picture. Exogenous variables Di si nte m e d i a t i o n Population 1960 1975 (updated p r ojections--greater birthrate decline than nation) 6,288,257 6,988,878 Net out migration and below average population growth. (Have to do double service in-migration did not continue.) Where will they b e ? Urban 1960 1975 52.8 59.9 North Dakota is least urbanized in U.S. Four of the six areas will still be less than 50% urban. What will they be d o i n g ? Retail trade 425,000 Service 402,000 M a n u f acturing 397,000 Govt., Fed-State-local 392,000 Agriculture 278,000 There will be 295,000 more jobs. How much will they be m a k i n g ? Total personal income (1960 dollars) - $20,000,000,000. was 2.7% against national rate of 2.5%. The rate The data published in 1966 by the Census Bureau indicates that the national rate is now 3.10%, with South Dakota and Montana substantially below this figure and the rest of the District about on a par. The income increase is significantly attributed to the low starting point of agricultural income. These words are o m i n o u s - - "The productivity dilemma is evident again and again throughout the analysis of the Upper Midwest economies. Real income increases and real cost reductions are desirable, but the cost of economic progress is sometimes high in terms of displaced workers and shrinking employment opportunities in particular ar e a s . ” 2 / of our economy outside the Twin Cities. J And will continue to be so. encouragement and dismay are inherent in this. Both Encouragement certainly for personal income will rise - - discouragement, though, for at first examination the decline in numbers of people involved would seem certain. latter follow ne But does this it one of these, agriculture, shows some of the exogenous variables at work already. Decline in farm numbers showing up. Intensive rather than extensive or expansive. Capital costs. Managerial labor. Technology. Farming is now only a step between manufacture of inputs to the land to manufacture of inputs to the consumer. It is a process that starts and ends at the laboratory -- whether it be for the conditioning of the agricultural environment or the improvement of the human digestion, there is now a developing spectrum of specifics. enormously. The service industry to primary agriculture is growing And it takes people dispersed in service centers reasonably c o n venient to the farm. The farmer cannot afford the time or the equipment to transport many of these supplies. The trip to town for supplies has always been time consuming -- and with the enforced down time it implies for high cost equipment on the farm, he can no longer afford it as a business necessity. */ k) U — &f~ t^O-**~Z5 Lnj ^ — OX- • ^ - ^ l— - ^ c / ^+ ~< -* a*£~~y ^-O' C*- ju^ - t J U J ^ J l V "jfay-**- *< £ b ‘ |t>-<t-^ —-^3 l&Ejl ^C-*<-*C-. / X.^L i fljfuch of C co^iv * our national effort has been directed to creating predictable supplies. An fioponri«».n4- —ft r-o^£iKi p ra d f -.fAr a lii of estimated 2.7 billion has already been spent i-ft— fehi 6— di stric t . Va-fv* - - Of all the projects w h ich may alter the face of not only our district but the whole of our continent, highest on the list perhaps is NAWAPA, the North America Water and Power Alliance. This project, or one as daring, will come in our fight to reshape our environment. Water transportation across the United States, restoration of the level of the Great Lakes, and pollution control of mid-American rivers would be only side benefits of this tremendous project designed to distribute w a ter throughout the western side of our continent -- with a price tag of 100 billion -- chosen, I suspect, because it seems such a good round number. . WINOSPR1AD jp t•<£ % 4 0 *~* v U ^ v * JU l**->£ - w 4 h Bu ^A^*C*4m^ %. «u* lu<t»«,#<**'^i 1 v 0*. I* . . ___ ________ & / < & «* *♦' U. «?•.« *
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