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-
-
Economic Perspectives
Annual Meeting of the
Rubber Manufacturers Association
November 16, 1978
G. William Miller, Chairman
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
..
Change from previous period,
annuat rate, per cent
15
REAL GNP
1972 Dollars
10
5
__..._I ___ ;
5
H1 03
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
COMPONENTS OF FINAt SALES
Trough, 197501=100
1972 Dollars
1975
1976
1977
1978
,.
INCOME AND CONSUMPTION
Percentage change
8
Real Consumption
4
~~~~~-'-...Ll..WIJ.U.L~_.__lll.WLLLL._~-'---'w..L.Ll.u..a..__J_.ll.UJ.LLU.L----4
+Q
Real Disposable Income
4
H1
1974
1975
1976
1977
SAVING RATE
Q3
1978
Per cent
10
6
2
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS
Annual rate, millions of units
2.5
1.5
0.5
Multi-Family
t970
1972
1974
1976
1978
HOMES SOLD
MHlions of units
-...,
.
5.0
4.0
New and Existing
1974
1975
1976
DEPOSIT GROWTH AT
THRIFT INSTITUTIONS
1977
3.0
1978
1979
-,
Change from previous period, annual rate, per cent
20
15
10
5
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
OUTSTANDING COMMITMENTS AT
SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS
1979
Billions of dollars
30
20
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
NONRESIDENTIAL FlXED INVESTMENT .
Index, trough quarter=100
1972 Dollars
Average of Five
Previous Cycles
120
110
100
NONRESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION
Trough, 191sa1:;:100
1975
PRODUCERS'
DURABLE EQUIPMENT
Trough, 191sa1=100
1972 Dollars
1972 Dollars
1974
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1976
1977
1978
f20
1.20
100
100
197 4
1975.
1976
1977
1978
Average Annual Growth of the Capital S.tock *
--
Per cent
~
6
..._
-
5
..._
-
4
-
-
3
-
-
2
-
I
1962-1967
I
1967-1972
0
1972-1977
* Private nonresidential net capital stock measured in constant dollars.
BUSINESS INVENTORIES
Annuatrate, billions of dollars
60
Change In Book Value
40
20
+
0
20
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
Ratio
1.6
Inventories Relative To Sales
1.5
1.4
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
. REAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Billions of 19'?2 dollars
280
240
200
160
ST ATE AND LOCAL
FEDERAL UNIFIED BUDGET DEFICIT*
Billions of current dollars
+
0
20
40.
80
.
1974
* Flscal. years
t975
1916
1977
1Q78
1919.
..
llll!I CIVILIAN
LABOR FORCE
Change from previous period,
annual rate, millions
mEMPLOYMENT
6
4
2
----lJJ...___ _ _ _ _ __ ,
H1
1974
1975
1976 --
1977
+0
03
1978
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Per cent
8
7
6
5
1974
1975
1976
t977
1978
UNIT COST INDICATORS Nonfarm Business Sector
Percentage change
-
..--
Compensation Per Hour
-
-
10
-
5
+
0
.__
-
I
I
1974
1975
I
I
1976
1977
H1 03
1978
Percentage change
Output Per Hour
10
5
+
0
5
H1 03
1974
1975
1976
1977 .
1978
Percentage change
Unit Labor Costs
15
1()-
5
+
0
H1 03
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
GNP PRICE INDEXES
Change from previous period ,
annual rate , per cent
10
5
Food
10
5
+
0
Total Less Food
10
5
H1
1974
1975
1976
H2
1977
H1
03
1978
U.S. MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE
Annual rates, seasonally adjusted, billions of dollars
50
International Accounts Basis
40
BALANCE EXCLUDING
PETROLEUM IMPORTS
30
20
10
+
0
10
TRADE BALANCE
20
30
40
._______.....________..._________.________
. 1971
. 1972
1973
1974
~
________.________......________..________.50
1975
1976
1977
1978
TRADE-WEIGHTED AVERAGI; EXCHANGE VALUE OF
_ U.S. DOLLAR AGAINST 10 MAJOR CURRENCIES
March 1973:100
90
130
88
120
110
100
. 90
80
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
FUNDS RAISED BY
NONFINANCIAL SECTORS
l=rrnu.s.
Billions of dollars
Government
DID Private
400
300
200
100
197 4
1975
1976
1977
1978
Short and Long Term Interest Rates
SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES
Per cent
11
9
4-6 MONTH PRIME
.COMMERCIAL PAPER
7
5
LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES
Per cent
11
HOME MORTGAGE
_,
'
I
,
,,
,.
~
I
,.....
9
"- ..... .,'I
Aaa UTILITY BOND .
I
I
I
~
New Issue
7
I
MUNICIPAL BOND
5
______.._____
1968
~
__._.._____...__.__.._____....__________....,_____..____...,a__
1970
1972
1974
1976
_..__.3
1978
. Short-Term Interest Rates and Inflation
Per cent
14
"
I 'l CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*
''
'
''
''
'
12
1
4-6 MONTH PRIME .
COMMERCIAL PAPE~ RATE
'
>i
'1
I l
I 1
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2
1968
1970
*Annual rate of change from previous quarter.
1972
1974
1976
1978
Household Borrowing
Annual rate of change, billions of dollars
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
INSTALMENT DEBT
+
0
20
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
Mortgage Rate and Inflation
Per cent
14
" "~,
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12
l
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HOME MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX*
10
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rerage ·ea-'72
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1968
1970
*Annual rate of change from previous quarter.
1972
1974
1976
1978
Total Automobile Credit
VOLUME EXTENDED
Annual rate, billions of dollars
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Per cent, average rate
14
13
Finance Companies
12
11
Commerical Banks
10
9
1972
1974
1976
1978
Index of GNP and Money Stock M-1
1970 QIV=100
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
MONEY SUPPLY INDICES-M-1
March 1973=100
200
180
160
140
120
100
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
BiRions of dollars
315
03 '78-03 '79
365
355
365
355
365
325
355
335
365
325
355
04 '77-04 '78
335
34&
325
335
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Money Stock M-1 and M-1 +
Billions of dollars
600
400
M-1
200
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
REAL GNP
Per cent change from previous quarter, annual rate
1972 Dollars
10
5
!l!!!!iiiilll!lliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiliiiillii
1--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--'I.._~~~~~~~~---;
+0
5
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Per cent
8
111111111111111111111111111111111111111m _
·1974
1975
1976
GNP PRICES
1977
1978
s
1979
Per cent change from previous quarter, annual rate
15
10
lllllllllllll!l!l!ll!lllllllllll!llllllll
5
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
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