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For Release on D e l i v e r y Sunday, May 30, 1971 2 : 3 0 p.m. ( E . D . T . ) INFLATION, PRIVATE SPENDING, AND THE PROVISION OF PUBLIC SERVICES Remarks By Andrew F . Brimmer Member Board o f Governors of the F e d e r a l Reserve System A t the 171st Commencement E x e r c i s e s of Middlebury Middlebury, May 3 0 , College Vermont 1971 INFLATION, PRIVATE SPENDING, AND THE PROVISION OF PUBLIC SERVICES By Andrew F. By t r a d i t i o n , j o y f u l one: it Brimmer* the commencement season i s supposed to be a i s a time to c e l e b r a t e accomplishment and a time to look ahead w i t h hope. It c e r t a i n l y i s not a time f o r pessimism and doubt about our goals and purposes as a p e o p l e . i n the l i f e of our n a t i o n , goals a r e i n open c o n f l i c t . Yet, at this juncture t h e r e i s much doubt about us, and many of our So, the commencement season t h i s year appears to be a good time to stand a s i d e from some of our d a y - t o - d a y concerns to weigh a l t e r n a t i v e means of r e c o n c i l i n g competing aims and thus enhance the prospects o f a c h i e v i n g a more e q u i t a b l e Unfortunately, society. the n e c e s s i t y o f b a l a n c i n g - o f f competing claims on our n a t i o n a l resources i s not always a p p r e c i a t e d . This c l a s h of purposes i s i l l u s t r a t e d nowhere more c l e a r l y than i n the d r i v e to improve the economic p o s i t i o n of the disadvantaged (whether because of advanced age, r a c e , or urban l o c a l i t y ) and the e f f o r t t o quicken ^Member, Board of Governors o f the F e d e r a l Reserve System. I am g r a t e f u l to s e v e r a l members of the Board's s t a f f f o r a s s i s t a n c e i n the p r e p a r a t i o n of these remarks. Mrs. Susan Burch helped w i t h the a n a l y s i s of the o u t l o o k f o r p r i v a t e spending. Mr. Paul Schneiderman e s t i m a t e d the impact o f i n f l a t i o n on the major f u n c t i o n s of S t a t e and l o c a l governments. Mr. Jared J . E n z l e r was r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the computer s i m u l a t i o n s to assess the costs o f t r a n s f e r r i n g resources from the p r i v a t e to the p u b l i c s e c t o r . Miss H a r r i e t t Harper e s t i m a t e d the e f f e c t s of i n f l a t i o n on the cost of s e r v i c i n g S t a t e and l o c a l d e b t , and she a l s o helped w i t h o t h e r s t a t i s t i c a l problems. - 2- progress i n the p r e s e r v a t i o n of our n a t u r a l resources and to stop the p o l l u t i o n of our a i r and waterways. At f i r s t g l a n c e , i t might appear to many observers t h a t our abundant resources a r e l a r g e enough to support a f a s t e r pace of progress on a l l of these f r o n t s - - t o meet our s o c i a l and environmental needs simultaneously w h i l e c o n t i n u i n g t o improve our g e n e r a l standard of l i v i n g - - e s p e c i a l l y so since we a r e reducing the volume of resources set a s i d e f o r m i l i t a r y purposes. S a d l y , however, a c a r e f u l a n a l y s i s of the present and p r o s p e c t i v e claims on our n a t i o n a l output suggests t h a t such an accomplishment l i k e l y to be f a r more d i f f i c u l t it than i t might f i r s t appear. i s becoming i n c r e a s i n g l y e v i d e n t t h a t the people of t h i s In is fact, nation w i l l have to make an even g r e a t e r e f f o r t to e s t a b l i s h - - and e n f o r c e a more c a r e f u l a r r a y of p r i o r i t i e s than has been made i n r e c e n t -- years. Even a cursory review o f the competing p u b l i c and p r i v a t e demands f o r the goods and s e r v i c e s produced i n our economy makes i t c l e a r even w i t h the end o f the Vietnam War, the budgets f o r a l l government ~ Federal, that, levels of S t a t e , and l o c a l — w i l l be j u s t as t i g h t in 1975 as they a r e i n the c u r r e n t year. Moreover, w h i l e the growth of our population and the campaigns f o r improvement i n p u b l i c s e r v i c e s have p l a c e d s t r a i n s on a v a i l a b l e revenues, i n f l a t i o n a r y pressures have a l s o imposed a heavy burden - - a burden from which governmental u n i t s could not escape r e a d i l y . And what i s evea more d i s t r e s s i n g , inflationary the f o r c e s which have generated pressures may p e r s i s t f o r some t i m e . - 3- Under these circumstances, I see an i n h e r e n t c o n f l i c t among the major competing claims on our f u t u r e p r o d u c t i o n o f goods and services. This c o m p e t i t i o n i s not simply between the p r i v a t e and p u b l i c s e c t o r s - - but a l s o between s o r e l y needed new p u b l i c and p u b l i c programs a l r e a d y i n e x i s t e n c e , many of which have t h e i r o r i g i n a l purposes. Over the next few y e a r s , initiatives out-lived t h i s c o n f l i c t may be i n t e n s i f i e d r a t h e r than lessened - - as the p r i v a t e s e c t o r (particularly consumers) s t r i v e s to expand i t s r e l a t i v e claims on n a t i o n a l production. I n my o p i n i o n , to h e l p r e c o n c i l e these c o n f l i c t i n g o b j e c t i v e s and to h e l p p r o v i d e the revenue to f i n a n c e the growing demand f o r p u b l i c services, i t may be necessary to r a i s e the average l e v e l of t a x a t i o n i n the U n i t e d S t a t e s - - r a t h e r than lower i t as so many taxpayers hope w i l l be the trend. Consequently, d e s p i t e the l o n g i n g on the p a r t of many persons f o r a lessened r o l e f o r government, the l a t t e r may a c t u a l l y have to assume a proportionally greater responsibility i f the expanding demand f o r p u b l i c s e r v i c e s i s to be met. I would now l i k e t o discuss each o f these major p o i n t s more fully. Inflation and the R i s i n g Costs of P u b l i c Services A g r e a t d e a l of concern has been expressed i n r e c e n t years about the r i s i n g costs o f S t a t e and l o c a l government s e r v i c e s . Some of t h i s concern undoubtedly can be t r a c e d to the g r e a t l y i n c r e a s e d demand f o r p u b l i c s e r v i c e s — r e f l e c t i n g l a r g e r numbers o f c h i l d r e n t o be educated i n the p u b l i c schools, l a r g e r e n r o l l m e n t s i n publicly-supported - 4- c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s , a l a r g e r p o p u l a t i o n needing increased m e d i c a l c a r e , a g r e a t e r dependence of poor persons on p u b l i c more t r a f f i c welfare, on s t r e e t s and highways, more c r i m e , more a i r and water p o l l u t i o n , more parks and r e c r e a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s — i n f a c t , more o f v i r t u a l l y every k i n d of s e r v i c e provided by S t a t e s and l o c a l Naturally, jurisdictions* to meet these demands, expenditures by S t a t e and l o c a l governments had to r i s e . In fact, they more than t r i p l e d d u r i n g the l a s t 1 - 1 / 2 decades, c l i m b i n g from $39 b i l l i o n i n 1955 to $132 i n 1969 (See Table 1, a t t a c h e d ) . billion I n terms of purchases o f goods and s e r v i c e s recorded i n the gross n a t i o n a l product (GNP) accounts, their spending a l s o more than t r i p l e d over t h i s p e r i o d . total In contrast, GNP and p e r s o n a l consumption e x p e n d i t u r e s rose about 1 - 1 / 2 t i m e s , and F e d e r a l Government spending expanded about 1 - 1 / 4 times. A l l major S t a t e and l o c a l f u n c t i o n s shared i n the increased o u t l a y s i n the 1955-69 p e r i o d , but the r e l a t i v e r i s e i n e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n was e s p e c i a l l y n o t i c e a b l e . Spending on l o c a l schools rose r o u g h l y i n l i n e w i t h g e n e r a l e x p e n d i t u r e s as a whole. P u b l i c w e l f a r e costs i n c r e a s e d somewhat more r a p i d l y than total e x p e n d i t u r e s , and spending on highways lagged a p p r e c i a b l y . But the most d r a m a t i c f e a t u r e of S t a t e and l o c a l f i n a n c e s was the s i g n i f i c a n t impact o f i n f l a t i o n on t h e i r government activities. For example, between 1955 and 1970, p r i c e s p a i d by these u n i t s rose a t an annual average r a t e of 4 . 2 per c e n t , compared w i t h 3 . 6 per cent for - 5- the F e d e r a l Government and 2 . 7 per cent f o r the economy as a whole.—^ I n contrast, the r a t e o f i n c r e a s e was 2 . 2 per cent f o r p e r s o n a l con- sumption e x p e n d i t u r e s , 2 . 7 per cent f o r business f i x e d i n v e s t m e n t , and 3 . 0 per cent f o r r e s i d e n t i a l The d i f f e r e n t i a l construction. impact of i n f l a t i o n i s shown even more c l e a r l y by the e x p e r i e n c e o f d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s d u r i n g the years 1 9 6 5 - 7 0 , the p e r i o d of the most i n t e n s e i n f l a t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the Vietnam War. A g a i n , S t a t e and l o c a l governments had to c a r r y the g r e a t e s t burden of inflation: cent, f o r them p r i c e s rose a t an annual average r a t e of 5 . 8 per compared w i t h 5 . 0 per cent f o r the F e d e r a l Government and 4 . 0 per cent f o r the country a t l a r g e . The r a t e was 3 . 5 per cent f o r 3 . 4 per cent f o r business f i x e d i n v e s t m e n t , and 4 . 8 per cent residential consumers, for construction. The e f f e c t s of i n f l a t i o n on those u n i t s which p r o v i d e our b a s i c p u b l i c s e r v i c e s have been even more d r a m a t i c than i s shown by the differential trends i n p r i c e s . In fact, i n the volume o f s e r v i c e s s u p p l i e d , d e s p i t e the enormous i n f l a t i o n has been the most cause o f the i n c r e a s e i n the l e v e l o f S t a t e and l o c a l expenditures. i n T a b l e 1. increase government This c o n c l u s i o n i s supported s t r o n g l y by the evidence An e f f o r t has been made t o d i s t r i b u t e the i n c r e a s e e x p e n d i t u r e s , by major f u n c t i o n , a c c o r d i n g t o the source, g i v i n g 1/ P r i c e s discussed a t t h i s p o i n t a r e measured by the p r i c e d e f l a t o r s f o r the GNP. important in rise implicit - 6- to the h i g h e r l e v e l o f spending. Three sources a r e identified: ( 1 ) workload (number o f people s e r v e d , number of school-age number o f a u t o m o b i l e s , number o f beds i n h o s p i t a l s , increases etc.); children, (2) price ( h i g h e r costs f o r the same volume o f s e r v i c e ) ; and ( 3 ) i n scopd or q u a l i t y of s e r v i c e r e n d e r e d . increases The c o n t r i b u t i o n of each of 2/ these f a c t o r s was c a l c u l a t e d f o r two p e r i o d s , 1955-69 and 1965-69.— For a l l g e n e r a l e x p e n d i t u r e s combined, between 1955 and 1969, i n f l a t i o n accounted f o r w e l l over t w o - f i f t h s o f the t o t a l increase in o u t l a y s - - w h i l e o n e - q u a r t e r was due t o w o r k l o a d , and l e s s than onet h i r d was accounted f o r by changes i n scope or q u a l i t y of services. The impact o f i n f l a t i o n v a r i e d c o n s i d e r a b l y among d i f f e r e n t functions. Higher p r i c e s had the most n o t i c e a b l e e f f e c t on the growth o f on l o c a l schools (52 per c e n t ) and b a s i c urban s e r v i c e s expenditures ( 5 1 per cent). The p r o p o r t i o n o f the r i s e i n o u t l a y s due to i n f l a t i o n was below average i n the case o f p u b l i c w e l f a r e (30 per c e n t ) , h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n (36 per c e n t ) , and g e n e r a l a d m i n i s t r a t i o n (38 per c e n t ) . Only i n the a r e a o f highways d i d workload account f o r a l a r g e r share o f i n c r e a s e d than d i d i n f l a t i o n - areas, 51 per cent vs 42 per c e n t . I n two expenditures functional changes i n scope or q u a l i t y of s e r v i c e outweighed i n f l a t i o n ; were p u b l i c w e l f a r e (70 per cent vs 30 per c e n t ) and g e n e r a l (44 per cent vs 38 per these administration cent). 2/ The percentages a t t r i b u t a b l e t o w o r k l o a d , p r i c e , scope and q u a l i t y , 1 9 5 5 - 6 9 , were e s t i m a t e d by Robert D. Reischauer f o r Charles L . S c h u l t z e , t h e 1972 Budget, Brookings e t . a l . , Setting National P r i o r i t i e s : I n s t i t u t i o n , Washington, D. C . , 1971, Ch. 6 , pp. 1 3 8 - 4 0 . The corresponding f i g u r e s f o r 1965-69 were e s t i m a t e d by Paul Schneiderman of the Board's s t a f f , using Census Bureau data and R e i s c h a u e r ' s e s t i m a t i n g t e c h n i q u e . - 7- When one looks a t the years o f the Vietnam W a r - r e l a t e d 1 9 6 5 - 6 9 , t h e g e n e r a l p a t t e r n i s r o u g h l y the same — except t h a t impact of i n f l a t i o n i s even g r e a t e r . inflation, the For a l l g e n e r a l e x p e n d i t u r e s , the p r o p o r t i o n of the i n c r e a s e accounted f o r by i n f l a t i o n climbed to 47 per cent. Only i n the a r e a s o f p u b l i c w e l f a r e and h i g h e r e d u c a t i o n was t h e r e a r e l a t i v e d e c l i n e i n the impact o f h i g h e r p r i c e s . I n both cases, a c o n s i d e r a b l e expansion i n the scope o f coverage was more The r i s e i n the i n c i d e n c e o f i n f l a t i o n was p a r t i c u l a r l y important. s t r i k i n g i n the case o f highways and b a s i c urban s e r v i c e s . The reasons why i n f l a t i o n has had such a severe impact on S t a t e and l o c a l governments a r e r e a d i l y understood. W e l l over h a l f t h e i r t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s i s accounted f o r by wages and s a l a r i e s , and they have been under s u b s t a n t i a l pressure to r a i s e compensation. pressures i n t u r n can be t r a c e d p a r t l y t o e f f o r t s to o f f s e t i n the cost o f l i v i n g and p a r t l y t o t h e need to b r i n g of These increases traditionally low wage and s a l a r y s c a l e s i n t o b e t t e r a l i g n m e n t w i t h those i n the p r i v a t e sector,. Moreover, the sharp advances i n c o n s t r u c t i o n costs i n r e c e n t years have a l s o had a severe impact on these governmental u n i t s . Inflation and the R i s i n g Cost o f Debt F i n a n c i n g The above a r e some o f the d i r e c t e f f e c t s o f i n f l a t i o n on S t a t e and l o c a l governments. significant An i m p o r t a n t i n d i r e c t e f f e c t i s i n c r e a s e i n t h e cost o f f i n a n c i n g t h e i r d e b t s . the As i s g e n e r a l l y known, these j u r i s d i c t i o n s r e l y h e a v i l y on the issuance o f debt to f i n a n c e a major share o f t h e i r c a p i t a l p r o j e c t s . For example, - 8- i n the f i s c a l y e a r 1969, t h e i r new debt issues amounted to $ 1 8 . 9 t h e i r c a p i t a l o u t l a y s were $ 2 8 . 2 b i l l i o n . billion; Since borrowing u s u a l l y precedes spending (and s i n c e a small p r o p o r t i o n o f borrowing i s for n o n - c a p i t a l p u r p o s e s ) , debt f i n a n c i n g and c a p i t a l o u t l a y s d u r i n g a g i v e n y e a r may not mesh c l o s e l y . However, over t i m e , c a p i t a l i s g r e a t l y i n f l u e n c e d by the a b i l i t y o f S t a t e and l o c a l spending governments t o borrow. Between 1955 and 1969, the o u t s t a n d i n g g e n e r a l debt o f and l o c a l governments rose from $ 4 4 . 3 b i l l i o n t o $133*5 b i l l i o n , i n c r e a s e o f over 200 per c e n t . D u r i n g the same p e r i o d , an the F e d e r a l Government's debt rose from $ 2 7 4 . 4 b i l l i o n t o $ 3 5 3 . 7 b i l l i o n , o f about 30 per c e n t . State a gain I n the l a t e r p a r t o f t h e p e r i o d — i n the y e a r s 1965-69 — S t a t e and l o c a l indebtedness r e g i s t e r e d an i n c r e a s e o f $34 b i l l i o n , an advance o f about o n e - t h i r d . The corresponding i n the F e d e r a l debt was $ 3 6 . 4 b i l l i o n and 12 per increase cent. However, the advance i n i n t e r e s t c o s t was even more I n 1955, the average i n t e r e s t r a t e p a i d by S t a t e and l o c a l striking. governments 3/ was 1 . 9 per cent.— By 1965, the average r a t e had r i s e n t o 2 . 5 per c e n t , and i t rose f u r t h e r to 2 . 8 per cent i n 1969. The corresponding average i n t e r e s t r a t e s p a i d by the F e d e r a l Government were: per c e n t ; 1965, 2 . 8 per c e n t ; and 1969, 3 . 8 per c e n t . 1955, 2.4 Thus, i n the l a s t 1 - 1 / 2 decades, the average cost o f borrowing by S t a t e and l o c a l 3/ I t should be k e p t i n mind t h a t the income to i n v e s t o r s from h o l d i n g S t a t e and l o c a l s e c u r i t i e s i s exempt from F e d e r a l income t a x e s . The average r a t e s r e p o r t e d i n the t e x t r e f l e c t the heavy volume o f l o n g term debt issued a t low r a t e s i n the decade f o l l o w i n g World War I I . Since t h e n , m u n i c i p a l y i e l d s have r i s e n c o n s i d e r a b l y — from 2 . 4 8 per cent i n 1955 t o 3 . 2 6 per cent i n 1965 and to 5 . 7 2 per cent i n 1969. Thus, t h e i r debt s e r v i c e i n the f u t u r e w i l l be much h i g h e r . - 9- governments rose by almost o n e - h a l f ( a l t h o u g h the p r o p o r t i o n a t e r i s e was l e s s than t h a t experienced by the F e d e r a l Government where t h e was n e a r l y increase three-fifths). Another way t o view the e f f e c t s of h i g h e r i n t e r e s t r a t e s on S t a t e and l o c a l governments i s to l o o k a t the e x t r a cost o f m a i n t a i n i n g a g i v e n volume o f d e b t . If the average i n t e r e s t r a t e had remained unchanged between 1965 and 1969, the i n t e r e s t on the $ 1 3 3 . 5 b i l l i o n of debt o u t s t a n d i n g i n the l a t t e r y e a r would have been $ 3 . 3 b i l l i o n — or n e a r l y $400 m i l l i o n paid. If (12 per c e n t ) l e s s than the $ 3 . 7 b i l l i o n they a c t u a l l y the average i n t e r e s t r a t e p a i d i n 1955 had a l s o been p a i d 1969, the i n t e r e s t payments on the debt o u t s t a n d i n g i n the l a t t e r would have been $ 2 . 5 b i l l i o n — a saving o f $ 1 . 2 b i l l i o n , in year or 48 per cent. Of course, we know t h a t S t a t e and l o c a l governments - - no more than any o t h e r c l a s s o f borrowers - - cannot be i n s u l a t e d from i n t e r e s t r a t e changes and o t h e r c o n d i t i o n s i n the c a p i t a l m a r k e t . We a l s o know t h a t the s u b s t a n t i a l r i s e i n the g e n e r a l l e v e l o f i n t e r e s t r a t e s in r e c e n t years i s a b y - p r o d u c t of i n f l a t i o n and the e f f o r t undertaken to check the r i s e i n p r i c e s . Nevertheless, it i s i n s t r u c t i v e t o focus on the r i s i n g cost o f c a r r y i n g S t a t e and l o c a l d e b t . borrowers i n the p r i v a t e s e c t o r M o r e o v e r , u n l i k e some ( p a r t i c u l a r l y business f i r m s ) , State and l o c a l governments cannot r e c o v e r the r i s e i n i n t e r e s t c o s t through h i g h e r p r i c e s or by w r i t i n g i t o f f a g a i n s t t a x e s . jurisdictions Thus, these - - which bear so much o f the burden o f p r o v i d i n g p u b l i c s e r v i c e s — a r e - 10 - p a r t i c u l a r l y exposed to the adverse impact o f i n f l a t i o n and the a t t e n d a n t rise in interest rates. Competing Claims on F u t u r e Output As I i n d i c a t e d above, the major claims on our f u t u r e p r o d u c t i o n o f goods and s e r v i c e s t h a t have a l r e a d y been i d e n t i f i e d -- i n c l u d i n g p u b l i c programs a l r e a d y i n e x i s t e n c e - - may make i t extremely difficult The to improve our p u b l i c s e r v i c e s i n the y e a r s ahead. s e v e r i t y of the problem we face comes i n t o sharp focus when we t r y to match the economy's f u t u r e p r o d u c t i o n w i t h the demands o r i g i n a t i n g in particular sectors. For t h i s purpose, i t would be u s e f u l t o p r e s e n t rough e s t i m a t e s of the p o t e n t i a l o u t p u t four years from now and to i d e n t i f y some of more p r e s s i n g demands t h a t we now f o r e s e e . L e t us assume t h a t the the economy r e t u r n s t o f u l l employment by 1973 ( d e f i n e d as an unemployment r a t e of 4 . 0 per c e n t ) and t h a t p r o d u c t i v i t y ( o r the i n c r e a s e i n goods or s e r v i c e s produced by a worker i n an hour) w i l l grow a t an average r a t e of about 3 per cent a y e a r through 1975 - - about i n l i n e w i t h the long-term trend. If the l a b o r f o r c e grows a t about 1 . 8 per c e n t a y e a r ( r e f l e c t i n g both i n c r e a s e d p o p u l a t i o n o f working age and the p a r t i c i p a t i o n of women workers) and i f d e c l i n e i n average hours worked, there is a further rising slight the p o t e n t i a l growth of r e a l GNP i n the n e x t f o u r y e a r s w i l l average about 4 . 3 per cent a y e a r . By 1975, w i t h allowance f o r the p r e s e n t u n d e r - u t i l i z a t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s , t h i s would mean a GNP i n 1970 d o l l a r s o f over $ 1 . 2 t r i l l i o n - - about $200 b i l l i o n more than the l e v e l o f GNP l a s t year. - 11 - Large as i t may seem, even a GNP of t h i s s i z e w i l l a c a r e f u l review of p r i o r i t i e s , responsibilities. if require the p u b l i c s e c t o r i s t o meet The s o c i a l and environmental improvements desired by so many today must compete f o r t h e i r share o f GNP w i t h t h e requirements of consumers and business f i r m s . the judgment t o a g r e a t e r e x t e n t than many observers t h i n k was wise p r i v a t e spending should take p r i o r i t y over p u b l i c spending. result, strong The Tax Reform Act o f 1969 and more l i b e r a l d e p r e c i a t i o n r u l e s both r e f l e c t that - - its -- As a the a u t o m a t i c expansion o f resources a v a i l a b l e t o the government from what economists have d e f i n e d as the " f i s c a l d i v i d e n d " (a g a i n in revenue t h a t a c c r u e s , even w i t h an unchanged t a x s t r u c t u r e , as t h e economy g e n e r a t e s l a r g e r t a x a b l e incomes) w i l l be about $10 billion l e s s i n 1975 than w i t h o u t the tax changes. I n the years immediately ahead, a g r e a t i n c r e a s e expected the r e l a t i v e in importance o f young f a m i l i e s w i l l c r e a t e an u r g e n t need f o r goods and s e r v i c e s . There i s a l s o a desperate need t o upgrade c u r r e n t l y inadequate stock o f housing. Business r e q u i r e m e n t s the for expanding investment i n p l a n t and equipment — b o t h t o add c a p a c i t y serve the g r e a t e r number o f people but a l s o to c o n t r o l p o l l u t a n t s - also l i k e l y employment. to be e x c e e d i n g l y intense as the economy r e t u r n s t o to are full Almost a u t o m a t i c increases i n p u b l i c programs a l r e a d y in e x i s t e n c e w i l l a l s o c l a i m s i g n i f i c a n t increments o f f u t u r e GNP as w e l l as most o f the funds d i v e r t e d from Vietnam. - 12 - These mounting demands were h i g h l i g h t e d i n the Reports of the C o u n c i l o f Economic Advisers (CEA) i n 1970 and 1971. I n both R e p o r t s , CEA p r e s e n t e d f i v e - y e a r p r o j e c t i o n s of the competing demands of the p r i v a t e and p u b l i c sectors f o r r e s o u r c e s . I n both y e a r s , C o u n c i l came to the gloomy conclusion t h a t - - w i t h o u t f u r t h e r i n our t a x laws — demands f o r personal consumption, p r i v a t e investment (including residential construction), the changes domestic and b u i l t - i n increases i n p r e s e n t p u b l i c programs would absorb most o f the i n c r e a s e i n r e a l GNP and savings from the Vietnam War i n the next few y e a r s . 1975, the l a t e s t CEA Report suggests t h a t the amount o f resources a t Even i n unallocated f u l l - e m p l o y m e n t may be only 1 per c e n t o f GNP. The Brookings I n s t i t u t i o n i s even more p e s s i m i s t i c i n i t s e s t i m a t e s d i s c r e t i o n a r y e x p e n d i t u r e s p o s s i b l e i n the p u b l i c The C o u n c i l ' s Reports thus suggest, sector.—^ in e f f e c t , t h a t we have a l r e a d y mortgaged both our "peace dividend 1 1 and our " f i s c a l as w e l l . of The Tax Reform Act and a c c e l e r a t e d d e p r e c i a t i o n - - dividend" even w i t h some o f f s e t t i n g i n c r e a s e s i n S o c i a l S e c u r i t y taxes - - w i l l reduce the p u b l i c share o f GNP (both d i r e c t and i n c l u d i n g t r a n s f e r s and g r a n t s ) from 2 9 . 6 per cent i n calendar 1969 to an e s t i m a t e d 2 8 . 7 per cent 1975. As a r e s u l t of these tax changes, " b u i l t - i n " F e d e r a l programs pay i n c r e a s e s ) increases i n existing (because o f changes i n p o p u l a t i o n , workload, and normal and new programs a l r e a d y proposed i n the f i s c a l 1972 4 / Charles L. Schultze, e t . a l . , S e t t i n g National P r i o r i t i e s : 1972 Budget, Washington, D. C . , 1971, Ch. 17. in the -13 b u d g e t , a l l but perhaps $12 b i l l i o n of the p r o j e c t e d $57 billion cummulative i n c r e a s e s i n full-employment F e d e r a l revenues between f i s c a l 1972 and 1975 i s a l r e a d y allocated. The p o i n t which I have been t r y i n g t o make so f a r i s t h a t the n e x t few y e a r s , w i t h o u t a fundamental change i n p r e s e n t in private e x p e n d i t u r e p a t t e r n s and i n government programs, t h e r e w i l l be no l a r g e sum of money which the government can e a s i l y devote to the expansion and improvement of p u b l i c s e r v i c e s . The small " f i s c a l dividend 1 1 o f perhaps a t most 1 per cent o f 1975 GNP could e a s i l y v a n i s h w i t h a slower economic r e c o v e r y than we expect a t the moment, or the o f even $3 b i l l i o n a year o f other types o f new programs. addition Moreover, the surplus i n the F e d e r a l budget which i s p r o j e c t e d f o r 1975 will accrue m a i n l y to the S o c i a l S e c u r i t y t r u s t funds, and i n the p a s t when l a r g e sums were b u i l d i n g up i n these funds we have e i t h e r not gone forward w i t h scheduled S o c i a l S e c u r i t y tax changes or l i b e r a l i z e d the b e n e f i t s p a i d from the t r u s t funds. talk of both At p r e s e n t , there is already possibilities. Re-ordering National It Priorities i s a g a i n s t t h i s background t h a t we must assess the p r o s p e c t s o f meeting the i n s i s t e n t demand t h a t a g r e a t e r share o f our resources be devoted to improvements i n e d u c a t i o n , h e a l t h , urban s e r v i c e s , environment, and s i m i l a r areas of p u b l i c r e s p o n s i b i l i t y . the Essentially, w i t h v i r t u a l l y a l l o f our resources a l r e a d y committed, we must d e t e r m i n e - 14 - the e x t e n t to which resources can be t r a n s f e r r e d from p r e s e n t -- p r i m a r i l y p r i v a t e - - uses to a l t e r n a t i v e — m a i n l y p u b l i c — purposes. Since the b u l k o f the a c t u a l spending on public services i s done by S t a t e and l o c a l governments ( a l t h o u g h F e d e r a l g r a n t s may f i n a n c e a s i z a b l e share o f the cost o f s p e c i f i c programs) , i t would be h e l p f u l to l o o k a t the problem from the v i e w p o i n t of their pur- chases o f goods and s e r v i c e s w i t h i n the framework o f the GNP accounts. The o b j e c t i v e would be to o b t a i n a rough i n d i c a t i o n o f the consequences o f t r a n s f e r r i n g a g i v e n volume of spending from the p r i v a t e s e c t o r S t a t e and l o c a l governments. One way t o approach the t a s k i s to employ the modern, based s t a t i s t i c a l techniques on which economists a r e r e l y i n g t o i d e n t i f y p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n s to complex issues o f p u b l i c During t h e l a s t to few y e a r s , computer- increasingly policy. the F e d e r a l Reserve Board 1 s s t a f f (with the t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e o f economists a t the Massachusetts I n s t i t u t e of Technology and the U n i v e r s i t y of Pennsylvania) has developed and i s now o p e r a t i n g such a l a r g e - s c a l e , econometric model. staff, With h e l p from the I have employed t h i s computer-based model t o pose s e v e r a l r e l a t i n g t o the r e a l l o c a t i o n 1958 d o l l a r s ) of r e s o u r c e s . a r e shown i n Table The r e s u l t s questions ( i n constant 2.-^ 5/ Mr„ J a r e d J . E n z l e r o f the Board's s t a f f was r e s p o n s i b l e f o r the computer s i m u l a t i o n s o f the n a t i o n a l economy to o b t a i n the p r o j e c t i o n s . - 15 - Essentially, I wanted t o know what would be the broad economic e f f e c t s - - both d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t - - of a l l o c a t i n g a larger share of n a t i o n a l resources to S t a t e and l o c a l governments d u r i n g the period 1970-75. To get an answer, i t was f i r s t necessary to have an i n d i c a t i o n o f the share which they would have i n the absence o f measures to produce such a r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . Using the Board's special econometric model, a "base p r o j e c t i o n " o f r e a l GNP and p r i n c i p a l components in 6/ 1975 was prepared."" According to these e s t i m a t e s , r e a l GNP m i g h t climb from $724 b i l l i o n i n 1970 t o $893 b i l l i o n i n 1975. Purchases by S t a t e and l o c a l governments might account f o r $ 9 7 . 4 b i l l i o n 1 0 . 9 per c e n t ) i n 1970. i n 1975, compared w i t h $ 7 4 . 1 b i l l i o n (or ( 1 0 . 2 per cent) The share o f p e r s o n a l consumption might r i s e s l i g h t l y from 6 5 . 9 per cent to 6 6 . 6 per c e n t . The F e d e r a l Government's -share might d e c l i n e somewhat ( f r o m 9 . 4 per cent to 8 . 8 per c e n t ) , and so might the p r o p o r t i o n going i n t o gross p r i v a t e domestic investment 1 4 . 1 per cent t o 1 3 . 2 per c e n t ) . (from The key p o i n t t o keep i n mind i s the percentage of our resources used by S t a t e and l o c a l that governments would p r o b a b l y r i s e s l i g h t l y d u r i n g the next few y e a r s - - if the economic f o r c e s a t work i n 1970 were to extend unhampered through 1975. However, t h a t i s the c r u c i a l i s s u e . Currently, s e r i o u s doubt as t o whether r e c e n t trends w i l l c o n t i n u e . siderable extent, there is To a con- the r e l a t i v e l y r a p i d expansion i n p e r c a p i t a State 6 / Key assumptions u n d e r l y i n g the e x e r c i s e were t h a t t a x r a t e s were unchanged and t h a t resources were f u l l y u t i l i z e d , w i t h unemployment i n the neighborhood of 4 per cent i n 1975. - 16 - and l o c a l government e x p e n d i t u r e s i n r e c e n t years r e f l e c t s spending f o r e d u c a t i o n — which accounts f o r a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l l a y s by these u n i t s . out- I n the years ahead, the school-age p o p u l a t i o n w i l l be growing l e s s r a p i d l y than i t d i d d u r i n g the l a s t 1 - 1 / 2 decades. Consequently, per c a p i t a increases i n S t a t e and l o c a l s e r v i c e s might be expected to moderate. Because o f these c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , the Council o f Economic A d v i s e r s has e s t i m a t e d t h a t r e a l per c a p i t a S t a t e and l o c a l government spending may grow a t an annual average r a t e o f 2 . 6 per cent between 1969 and 1975; t h i s WDuld r e p r e s e n t a m o d e r a t e l y slower expansion than f o r t o t a l o u t p u t , and i t would be w e l l below the 3 . 8 per cent growth r a t e r e c o r d e d i n the p e r i o d 1 9 5 5 - 6 9 . In contrast, the CEA e s t i m a t e s t h a t r e a l per c a p i t a consumption w i l l grow a t an annual average r a t e 3 . 6 per c e n t between 1969 and 1975, s u b s t a n t i a l l y 2 . 2 per c e n t recorded between 1955 and 1969. above the r a t e As a r e s u l t , s e c t o r would r a i s e i t s share of r e a l GNP ( i n 1969 d o l l a r s ) c e n t i n 1969 t o 64 per cent i n 1975. of of the consumer from 62 per On t h e o t h e r hand, the share o f S t a t e and l o c a l governments would remain v i r t u a l l y unchanged - - moving up from 1 1 . 9 per cent t o 1 2 . 0 per c e n t . These e s t i m a t e s by the CEA cast i n b o l d r e l i e f r e a l l o c a t i n g resources i n favor of the p u b l i c s e c t o r . the i s s u e o f To assess the consequences o f a p r o s p e c t i v e d e c l i n e i n t h e growth r a t e o f r e a l per c a p i t a spending by S t a t e and l o c a l governments, I made a second p r o j e c t i o n o f r e a l GNP i n 1975, using as a guide the C o u n c i l ' s estimate - 17 - t h a t such o u t l a y s might grow by 2 . 6 per cent per y e a r through 1975. The r e s u l t s o f t h i s p r o j e c t i o n a r e a l s o shown i n T a b l e 2 as the "low 11 p r o j e c t i o n ) . (designated These r e s u l t s can be compared w i t h "base" p r o j e c t i o n (which, as mentioned e a r l i e r , the sketches the contours o f the economy i n 1975 on the assumption t h a t r e c e n t t r e n d s would c o n t i n u e and i n the absence o f measures t o r e a l l o c a t e S e v e r a l f e a t u r e s should be noted: resources). r e a l GNP would be somewhat h i g h e r , and the p r o p o r t i o n s t a k e n by personal consumption and p r i v a t e domestic investment would a l s o rise.—^ important e f f e c t i s a cutback But f o r our purposes, o f $ 7 . 1 b i l l i o n i n the l e v e l o f S t a t e and l o c a l purchases o f goods and s e r v i c e s i n 1975. billion, the most These would amount t o compared w i t h $ 9 7 . 4 b i l l i o n suggested by t h e "base" T h e i r share o f t o t a l GNP might d e c l i n e to 9 . 9 per c e n t , $90.3 projection. compared w i t h 1 0 . 9 per cent i n d i c a t e d by the "base" p r o j e c t i o n . This l e s s r a p i d expansion i n the l e v e l o f spending by S t a t e and l o c a l governments would have s e v e r a l s i d e - e f f e c t s . unemployment might be s l i g h t l y h i g h e r , The l e v e l of the pace o f i n f l a t i o n might ease 8/ somewhat, and i n t e r e s t r a t e s might be m o d e r a t e l y lower.— On the 7 / Throughout t h i s e x e r c i s e , the l e v e l o f spending by the F e d e r a l government was h e l d c o n s t a n t . The reason f o r t h i s was t h e d e s i r e t o p e r m i t the computer s i m u l a t i o n to d e s c r i b e the i n t e r - a c t i o n o f S t a t e and l o c a l spending w i t h spending i n the p r i v a t e s e c t o r . 8 / For those i n t e r e s t e d i n the t e c h n i c a l a s p e c t s o f the s i m u l a t i o n , i t should be mentioned t h a t the adverse impact o f t h e slower r a t e o f growth i n per c a p i t a spending by S t a t e and l o c a l u n i t s was tempered by assuming t h a t monetary p o l i c y would be r e l a x e d s u f f i c i e n t l y to o f f s e t the depressing e f f e c t s and m a i n t a i n f u l l use o f r e s o u r c e s . Otherw i s e , r e a l GNP would d e c l i n e by $ 2 . 2 b i l l i o n ( f r o m the "base" p r o j e c t i o n ) * the GNP d e f l a t o r would be 6 . 8 percentage p o i n t s l o w e r , and the unemployment r a t e would climb to 5 . 3 per cent - - n e a r l y 1 - 1 / 2 p o i n t s h i g h e r than the e s t i m a t e i n the "base" p r o j e c t i o n . - 18 - o t h e r hand, s i n c e p o p u l a t i o n would be h i g h e r i n 1975, the scope and q u a l i t y o f p u b l i c s e r v i c e s would probably be d e t e r i o r a t i n g . If i t were thought d e s i r a b l e to check t h i s tendency, an e f f o r t would have to be made t o r e a l l o c a t e a l a r g e r share o f r e s o u r c e s t o S t a t e and l o c a l governments. real The consequences o f pursuing t h i s course a r e suggested i n the f i n a l p r o j e c t i o n shown i n T a b l e 2 ( i d e n t i f i e d as the "high 11 p r o j e c t i o n ) . These e s t i m a t e s assume t h a t r e a l p e r c a p i t a spending by these j u r i s d i c t i o n s would i n c r e a s e by 3 . 8 per c e n t per y e a r between 1970 and 1975. I n t h i s case, S t a t e and l o c a l o u t l a y s might be i n the neighborhood o f $ 9 5 . 9 b i l l i o n , c e n t o f GNP. W h i l e t h i s would be $ 1 . 5 b i l l i o n below the l e v e l by the "base" p r o j e c t i o n , suggested i t would a l s o be $ 5 . 6 b i l l i o n above t h a t i n d i c a t e d by the "low" p r o j e c t i o n . situation, or 1 0 . 7 per Thus, compared w i t h the latter i n which S t a t e and l o c a l u n i t s would y i e l d t o the p r i v a t e s e c t o r p a r t o f t h e i r r e l a t i v e command over r e s o u r c e s , would have t h a t much more ( $ 5 . 6 b i l l i o n ) the p u b l i c to spend on p u b l i c sector services. However, the r e a l costs o f making t h i s t r a n s f e r would be considerable. To achieve it might r e q u i r e a r e l a t i v e cutback i n real consumer spending o f $12 b i l l i o n , and business f i x e d investment might a l s o be n e a r l y $5 b i l l i o n l e s s . Expenditures on r e s i d e n t i a l could s h r i n k by as much as $ 1 . 2 b i l l i o n . construction Moreover, r e f l e c t i n g the com- b i n e d impact o f these changes, r e a l GNP might d e c l i n e by over $13 b i l l i o n from t h e l e v e l i n d i c a t e d by the f base" p r o j e c t i o n . the l e v e l o f unemployment might d e c l i n e s l i g h t l y , In addition, the pace o f while inflation would q u i c k e n , and the l e v e l o f i n t e r e s t r a t e s would be somewhat h i g h e r . - 19 - I p e r s o n a l l y f i n d the r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d here b o t h and i n s t r u c t i v e . While I would not advance the r e s u l t s as they do p o i n t up a c e n t r a l t r u t h : definitive, i f r e a l resources a r e to be from p r i v a t e use t o the p u b l i c s e c t o r , perhaps s u b s t a n t i a l - - illuminating it will involve a r e a l - - cost i n terms o f i n f l a t i o n and the r a t e growth of the n a t i o n a l economy. transferred and of I n the o p i n i o n o f many o b s e r v e r s , that cost i s w o r t h p a y i n g . Concluding Observations From t h i s review o f the e f f e c t s o f i n f l a t i o n on S t a t e and l o c a l governments - - and from t h i s assessment of competing c l a i m s on our p r o d u c t i v e resources - - I am p e r s o n a l l y convinced t h a t we a r e in c o n s i d e r a b l e danger o f seeing a serious d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n the scope and q u a l i t y of our p u b l i c s e r v i c e s . long to r e v e r s e the t r e n d , Unless steps a r e t a k e n b e f o r e too the s i t u a t i o n seems l i k e l y t o g e t worse as newer demands (such as p o l l u t i o n abatement) a r e added t o the a l r e a d y inadequate supply o f t r a d i t i o n a l p u b l i c I n my o p i n i o n , services. the issue b e f o r e us i s c l e a r : i n the last few years ( m a i n l y because o f the tax r e l i e f p r o v i d e d by the F e d e r a l government i n 1969) , p r i v a t e consumption has been g i v e n a much h i g h e r p r i o r i t y over p u b l i c spending than i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h our requirements i n the a r e a o f p u b l i c s e r v i c e s . corrected, t h i s imbalance i s t o be these l o s t t a x revenues might have t o be r e c a p t u r e d and channeled t o S t a t e and l o c a l If long-run governments. - 20 - Thus, r a t h e r than l o o k i n g forward to f u r t h e r tax reductions, a l l o f us may have to accept the burdens of paying an even l a r g e r share o f our a l r e a d y l i m i t e d incomes i n the form of h i g h e r taxes. M o r e o v e r , d e s p i t e t h e w i d e l y - n o t e d l o n g i n g f o r a lessened r o l e for government i n our s o c i e t y , we may have to be prepared t o see the government assume even g r e a t e r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r the p r o v i s i o n o f those common s e r v i c e s which a l l of us demand - - and which cannot be p r o v i d e d by any o t h e r means. Table 1. State and Local Government Expenditures, By Function and P r i n c i p a l Causes of Increases F i s c a l Years 1955, 1965, and 1969 (Amounts i n b i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s ) 1955-•69 Percentage Percentage of T o t a l Increase Increase 1965--69 Percentage of T o t a l Percentage Increase Increase Function 1955 Amount 1965 1969 A l l Functions 39.0 86.5 131.6 237.4 100.0 52.1 100.0 General Expenditure Local Schools Higher Education and Other Public Welfare Highways Hospitals and Health Basic Urban Servicesi' Administration and Other!/ 33.7 10.1 1.8 3.2 6.5 2.5 4.3 5.3 74.5 21.9 6.6 6.3 12.2 5.4 12.4 9.6 116.7 33.8 13.5 12.1 15.4 8.5 14.6 15.3 246.3 234.7 650.0 278.1 136.9 240.0 239.5 188.7 85.8 25.6 12.6 9.6 9.6 6.5 11.1 10.8 56.6 54.3 104.6 92.1 26.2 57.4 17.7 59.4 86.1 26.4 15.3 12.9 7.1 6.9 4.9 12.6 Utility Deficit 0.4 0.9 1.4 250.0 1.1 55.6 Debt Retirement and Additions to Liquid Assetsx' 3.9 7.3 12.3 215.4 9.1 Contributions to Retirement Systems 0.9 2.3 3.2 255.6 2.5 Sources: Note: - - - — — — 14.2 14.5 25.0 47.2 57.6 30.3 19.2 60.0 50.8 88.5 46.4 - - - 38.6 2jL. 6 50.8 18.8 22.8 18.5 30.0 15.9 39.4 70.3 6.9 37.4 26.6 43.6 1.1 - - - - - - — - - - - - - 68.5 11.1 - - - — — - - - - - - - 39.1 2.0 — - - - - - - - - - - - - - Percentages a t t r i b u t a b l e to workload, p r i c e , scope, and q u a l i t y , 1955-69, were estimated by Robert D. Reischauer for Charles L. Schultze, e t . a l . , Setting National P r i o r i t i e s : the 1972 Budget, Brookings I n s t i t u t i o n , Washington, D. C . , 1971, Ch. 6, pp. 138<-40. The 1969 data were revised since the o r i g i n a l publication. The corresponding figures for 1965-69 were estimated by Paul Schneiderman of the Federal Reserve Board's s t a f f , using Census Bureau data and Reischauer's estimating technique. * Workload decreased. * * Scope and/or q u a l i t y decreased. 1/ Includes f i r e protection, police protection, correction, sewerage, other s a n i t a t i o n , parks, and r e c r e a t i o n , housing and urban renewal, and transportation and terminals. 2/ Includes administration and general control, general public buildings, i n t e r e s t on general debt, employment services, and miscellaneous functions. — Percentage of 1965-69 increase i n expenditure a t t r i b u t a b l e to increase i n WorkScope & load Price Quality 43.8 52.4 35.5 29.7 42.3 43.8 50.6 38.0 Basic data are from the U. S. Bureau of the Census, "Governmental finances" i n selected years. 3/ Excludes social insurance funds. Percentage of 1955-69 increase in expenditure a t t r i b u t a b l e to increase i n WorkScope & load Price Quality 26.2 31.7 25.1 * - * 40.0 7.7 11.5 7.2 mm * * 41.5 * * 46.4 - Table 2. P r i n c i p a l Claims on Real Gross N a t i o n a l Product, and A l t e r n a t i v e P r o j e c t i o n s to 1975 (Amounts i n B i l l i o n s o f 1958 D o l l a r s ) Sector 1970 (Actual) Per cent Amount of T o t a l 1975: Base Prolection!/ Per cent Amount of T o t a l 1970 1975: Low ( 2 . 6 per cent) Growth Rate of Per Capita S t a t e and Local Purchase s i ' Variance from Per cent Base P r o j e c t i o n Amount of T o t a l 1975: High ( 3 . 8 per cent) Growth Rate of Per C a p i t a , State and Local Purchases-' Variance from: Base Per cent Amount of T o t a l P r o l e c t i o n Proiect^^P Gross N a t i o n a l Product 724.1 100.0 892.6 100.0 907.7 100.0 15.1 894.4 100.0 1.8 -13.3 Personal Consumption 477.1 65.9 594.4 66.6 608.3 67.0 13.9 596.3 66.8 1.9 -12.0 Gross P r i v a t e Domestic I n v . 102.8 14.1 117.9 13.2 125.2 13.8 7.3 118.3 13.2 0.4 - 6.9 56.1 23.1 20.6 3.0 7.7 3.2 2.8 0.4 63.6 25.8 24.6 3.9 7.1 2.9 2.8 0.4 66.3 27.9 26.2 4.8 7.3 3.1 2.9 0.5 2.7 2.1 1.6 0.9 63.4 25.9 25.0 4.0 7.1 2.9 2.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 - 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.8 Exports 52.1 7.2 62.5 7.0 62.5 6.9 - - - 62.5 7.0 Imports Net Exports 49.7 2.4 6.9 0.3 58.0 4.5 6.5 0.5 57.2 5.3 0.8 0.8 57.1 5.4 6.4 0.6 Federal Purchases 67.7 9.4 78.6 8.8 78.6 8.7 - - - 78.6 8.8 State and Local Purchases 74.1 10.2 97.4 10.9 90.3 9.9 10.7 Producers Durable Equipment Producers Structures R e s i d e n t i a l Construction Inventories Memorandum: Treasury B i l l Rate (Per cent) Prices (GNP D e f l a t o r ) Unemployment Rate 6.37 134.9 4.9 - 6.20 160.2 3.9 - 5.47 156.2 4.3 JL/ The "base p r o j e c t i o n " i s derived from a s i m u l a t i o n of the n a t i o n a l economy by using the Federal Reserve Board's econometric model. A key assumption was t h a t resources were f u l l y u t i l i z e d w i t h unemployment i n the neighborhood of 4 per cent i n 1975. 2/ I n t h i s p r o j e c t i o n , i t i s assumed t h a t r e a l per c a p i t a purchases by S t a t e and l o c a l governments w i l l grow about 2 . 6 per cent per year i n the 1970-75 p e r i o d . This i s the assumption on which the Council of Economic Advisers based i t s p r o j e c t i o n o f State and l o c a l purchases. (See 1971 Annual Report, p. 9 8 . ) 3/ This p r o j e c t i o n assumes t h a t r e a l per capita purchases by State and l o c a l governments w i l l grow about 3 . 8 per cent per year i n the 1970-75 period — the same r a t e of growth t h a t occurred from 1959 to 1969. - 6.3 0.6 - - 7.1 95.9 - 0.73 4.0 0.4 6.10 158.8 4.1 - — — - 0.9 0.9 - — — - 0.10 1.4 0.2 5.6 1.5 - 0.1 0.1 rJH oCB - 0.2
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