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F o r R e l e a s e on D e l i v e r y E C O N O M I C S I T U A T I O N OF B L A C K S IN THE U N I T E D STATES Statement By Andrew F. Brimmer Member B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s o f the Federal Reserve before System the J o i n t E c o n o m i c C o m m i t t e e o f the February 23, 1972 Congress CONTENTS Page Introduction 1 L o n g - R u n T r e n d s in E m p l o y m e n t 1 R e c e n t G r o w t h of the B l a c k L a b o r F o r c e 5 S l u g g i s h E x p a n s i o n in J o b s 7 Private Industry Performance and Black Employment 9 B l a c k s in G o v e r n m e n t J o b s 13 T r e n d of U n e m p l o y m e n t 17 I n c o m e T r e n d s in the B l a c k C o m m u n i t y 20 Federal Income Taxes Paid by Blacks 22 The E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k for B l a c k s 26 Table I, Employed Persons by Major Occupation Group and Color T a b l e 2 , 1970 L e v e l s a n d P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of M a n u f a c t u r i n g E m p l o y m e n t b y R a c e T a b l e 3 , P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of E m p l o y e d Persons by Industry Table 4 , Private Nonagricultural Employment E C O N O M I C S I T U A T I O N OF B L A C K S IN THE U N I T E D S T A T E S Introduction M r . C h a i r m a n and M e m b e r s of the C o m m i t t e e , I a m p l e a s e d a p p e a r b e f o r e this C o m m i t t e e to d i s c u s s r e c e n t e c o n o m i c in the b l a c k c o m m u n i t y . to developments T h e i n v i t a t i o n r e q u e s t e d that I " . . . d i s c u s s ... the s i t u a t i o n of m i n o r i t y g r o u p s , p a r t i c u l a r l y b l a c k s , in their a t t e m p t to s u r m o u n t d i s c r i m i n a t o r y b a r r i e r s to e q u a l opportunities my personal . 0 o . f f employment It is in t h a t c o n t e x t that I a p p e a r to p r e s e n t views. O n F e b r u a r y 9 , the C h a i r m a n of the F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Board a p p e a r e d b e f o r e y o u r C o m m i t t e e o n b e h a l f of the B o a r d as p a r t of ! the a n n u a l h e a r i n g s o n the P r e s i d e n t s E c o n o m i c R e p o r t . Consequently, I w i l l n o t t r a v e l o v e r that g r o u n d a g a i n . general M o r e o v e r , the a s s e s s m e n t of the o u t l o o k for the n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y in 1972 h a s b e e n p r e s e n t e d by the C o u n c i l of E c o n o m i c A d v i s e r s b r o a d a g r e e m e n t w i t h the C o u n c i l ' s ( C E A ) , and I a m in conclusions. T h e r e f o r e , I w i l l n o t a t t e m p t to p r e s e n t a s e p a r a t e e s t i m a t e or p r o j e c t i o n of g r o s s n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t (GNP) and components. its I n s t e a d , w i t h i n the f r a m e w o r k d e v e l o p e d by the C E A , I w i l l (1) r e v i e w r e c e n t e c o n o m i c t r e n d s in the b l a c k c o m m u n i t y and (2) a t t e m p t a rough a s s e s s m e n t of the p r o s p e c t s for b l a c k s in the short-run. L o n g - R u n T r e n d s in E m p l o y m e n t M o s t of this s t a t e m e n t is f o c u s e d o n e c o n o m i c t r e n d s the b l a c k c o m m u n i t y d u r i n g the last f e w y e a r s . T o p u t this e x p e r i e n c e in p e r s p e c t i v e , it m i g h t be h e l p f u l to s u m m a r i z e in recent briefly -2the o v e r a l l e c o n o m i c p r o g r e s s a m o n g blacks in the l a s t d e c a d e . This p r o g r e s s c a n b e t r a c e d in the t r e n d s of the l a b o r f o r c e , e m p l o y m e n t and occupational a d v a n c e m e n t . Negroes In 1 9 7 0 , there w e r e 9.2 m i l l i o n a n d o t h e r r a c e s — ^ in the l a b o r f o r c e - - m e a n i n g w e r e h o l d i n g jobs or s e e k i n g w o r k . that they This was a rise of about one-fifth s i n c e 1 9 6 0 , a r a t e of i n c r e a s e s o m e w h a t f a s t e r t h a n for w h i t e s a n d for the t o t a l l a b o r f o r c e . H o w e v e r , e m p l o y m e n t of b l a c k s m o r e r a p i d l y t h a n it d i d for a l l e m p l o y e e s rose (by 22 p e r c e n t to 8.4 m i l l i o n for the f o r m e r c o m p a r e d w i t h 1 9 - 1 / 2 p e r c e n t to 78.6 m i l l i o n for the l a t t e r ) . Expressed differently, while blacks represented a b o u t 11 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l c i v i l i a n l a b o r f o r c e in b o t h 1960 a n d 1 9 7 0 , t h e i r s h a r e o f the g a i n s in e m p l o y m e n t d u r i n g the d e c a d e w a s somewhat larger: they accounted for n e a r l y 12 p e r c e n t of the e m p l o y m e n t g r o w t h , a l t h o u g h t h e y h e l d j u s t o v e r 10 p e r c e n t of the j o b s a t the b e g i n n i n g o f the p e r i o d . (See T a b l e 1 , a t t a c h e d . ) A d v a n c e m e n t in the r a n g e of j o b s h e l d b y N e g r o e s in the last decade was also n o t i c e a b l e . improvements T h i s w a s p a r t i c u l a r l y true of the in the h i g h e s t p a y i n g o c c u p a t i o n s . B e t w e e n 1960 a n d the n u m b e r of b l a c k s in p r o f e s s i o n a l a n d t e c h n i c a l p o s i t i o n s b y 131 p e r c e n t (to 766 t h o u s a n d ) w h i l e the i n c r e a s e in the w a s o n l y 49 p e r c e n t (to 1 1 . 1 m i l l i o n ) . the p o i n t w h e r e they a c c o u n t e d 1/ increased total Blacks had progressed for 6.9 p e r c e n t o f the t o t a l 1970, to employment N e g r o e s c o n s t i t u t e a b o u t 92 p e r c e n t of a l l p e r s o n s in this group. Other races included are American Indians and Orientals. T h u s , this s t a t i s t i c a l s e r i e s c a n be t a k e n a s a n a p p r o x i m a t e m e a s u r e of e c o n o m i c t r e n d s a m o n g b l a c k s . -3in these top c a t e g o r i e s in the o c c u p a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e in 1 9 7 0 , c o m p a r e d w i t h 4 . 4 per c e n t in 1 9 6 0 . They got just over 9 per cent of the n e t i n c r e a s e in s u c h jobs o v e r the d e c a d e . During s a m e p e r i o d , the n u m b e r o f N e g r o m a n a g e r s , o f f i c i a l s a n d (the s e c o n d h i g h e s t p a y i n g c a t e g o r y ) r o s e t w o - t h i r d s this proprietors (to 297 thousand) c o m p a r e d to a n e x p a n s i o n o f 17 p e r c e n t (to 8.3 m i l l i o n ) for a l l e m p l o y e e s in this category. f In the 1 9 6 0 s , b l a c k w o r k e r s l e f t l o w - p a y i n g jobs in a g r i c u l t u r e a n d h o u s e h o l d s e r v i c e a t a r a t e two to t h r e e t i m e s t h a n did w h i t e w o r k e r s . faster The n u m b e r of b l a c k f a r m e r s and f a r m w o r k e r s d r o p p e d b y 63 p e r c e n t (to 3 2 8 t h o u s a n d ) in c o n t r a s t to a d e c l i n e of a b o u t 40 p e r c e n t (to 3.1 m i l l i o n ) for a l l p e r s o n s in the s a m e category. T h e r e f o r e , , in 1 9 7 0 , b l a c k s a c c o u n t e d for a b o u t 11 p e r c e n t of e m p l o y m e n t in a g r i c u l t u r e , less t h a n t h e i r in 1960 w h e n the p r o p o r t i o n w a s 16 p e r c e n t . share T h e e x i t of b l a c k s from private household employment was even more striking. During the last d e c a d e , the n u m b e r of N e g r o e s so e m p l o y e d fell b y a b o u t 34 p e r c e n t (to 652 t h o u s a n d ) ; the c o r r e s p o n d i n g d r o p for a l l w o r k e r s w a s o n l y 21 p e r c e n t (to 1.6 m i l l i o n ) . A l t h o u g h roughly half of all h o u s e h o l d w o r k e r s w e r e b l a c k in 1 9 6 0 , the r a t i o h a d d e c l i n e d just over two-fifths by 1970. declined T h e n u m b e r of b l a c k n o n f a r m laborers (by 9 per c e n t to 866 t h o u s a n d ) o v e r the l a s t d e c a d e , b u t the t o t a l n u m b e r of l a b o r e r s r o s e to somewhat. -4N e v e r t h e l e s s , a s a l r e a d y i n d i c a t e d , the a c c e l e r a t e d m o v e m e n t of b l a c k s o u t of the p o s i t i o n s a t the b o t t o m of the o c c u p a t i o n a l p y r a m i d d i d n o t flow e v e n l y t h r o u g h the e n t i r e occupational structure. F o r e x a m p l e , N e g r o e s in 1 9 7 0 s t i l l h e l d a b o u t 1.5 m i l l i o n o f the s e r v i c e j o b s o u t s i d e p r i v a t e of which require only m o d e s t skills. o n e - f i f t h of the t o t a l — a b o u t This represented households—most almost the same a s the p r o p o r t i o n in 1 9 6 0 . M o r e o v e r , the n u m b e r of b l a c k s h o l d i n g s e m i - s k i l l e d o p e r a t i v e jobs ( m a i n l y in f a c t o r i e s ) r o s e b y 4 2 p e r c e n t (to a b o u t 2 . 0 m i l l i o n ) d u r i n g the d e c a d e , c o m p a r e d w i t h a n e x p a n s i o n o f o n l y 1 6 - 1 / 2 p e r cent (13.9 m i l l i o n ) for a l l w o r k e r s . The result was that b l a c k s 1 s h a r e of the t o t a l c l i m b e d f r o m 12 p e r c e n t to o v e r 14 p e r cent. T a k e n t o g e t h e r , t h e s e two c a t e g o r i e s of l o w e r - s k i l l e d j o b s (chiefly in f a c t o r i e s o r in n o n h o u s e h o l d s e r v i c e s ) a c c o u n t e d larger share for a somewhat (42 p e r c e n t ) o f t o t a l b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t i n 1 9 7 0 t h a n d i d in 1 9 6 0 — w h e n t h e i r s h a r e w a s a b o u t 38 p e r c e n t . In c o n t r a s t , a m o n g a l l e m p l o y e e s the p r o p o r t i o n w a s v i r t u a l l y u n c h a n g e d — 2 7 c e n t a t the b e g i n n i n g o f the d e c a d e a n d 28 p e r c e n t a t its in o b t a i n i n g c l e r i c a l a n d s a l e s j o b s — a n d a l s o r e g i s t e r e d gains as craftsmen--their o c c u p a t i o n a l c e n t e r of gravity noticeable remained few A t the s a m e t i m e , it is a l s o c l e a r from the a b o v e a n a l y s i s t h a t b l a c k s w h o a r e w e l l - p r e p a r e d ! 1960 s a n c h o r e d in t h o s e p o s i t i o n s r e q u i r i n g l i t t l e s k i l l a n d o f f e r i n g for f u r t h e r a d v a n c e m e n t . per close. W h i l e N e g r o e s m a d e s u b s t a n t i a l p r o g r e s s d u r i n g the opportunities they to c o m p e t e for the h i g h e r - p a y i n g p o s i t i o n s in the u p p e r r e a c h e s of the occupation structure have made measurable gains. Nevertheless, c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e i r o v e r a l l p a r t i c i p a t i o n in the e c o n o m y (11 p e r c e n t of t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t ) , the o c c u p a t i o n a l d e f i c i t in w h i t e employment--averaging 40 per cent--remains large. Data on occupational distribution of total b y c o l o r in 1 9 7 1 a r e a l s o s h o w n in T a b l e 1 . collar employment In g e n e r a l , t h e s e f i g u r e s show the m i x e d job e x p e r i e n c e of b l a c k s in the l a s t y e a r . W h i l e t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t r o s e m o d e r a t e l y , the n u m b e r of b l a c k jobholders declined slightly. H o w e v e r , the l o s s e s w e r e c o n c e n t r a t e d among b l u e c o l l a r w o r k e r s , a s the n u m b e r of N e g r o e s e m p l o y e d in w h i t e c o l l a r c o n t i n u e d to e x p a n d . W i t h i n the b l u e c o l l a r g r o u p , the a t t r i t i o n w a s m o s t n o t i c e a b l e in the c a s e of o p e r a t i v e s . This situation was m a i n l y a r e f l e c t i o n o f the c o n t i n u e d s l u g g i s h n e s s of a c t i v i t y in the m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r in w h i c h a s i z a b l e p r o p o r t i o n of b l a c k s employed. R e c e n t t r e n d s in this s e c t o r a r e e x a m i n e d m o r e is closely below. R e c e n t G r o w t h o f the B l a c k L a b o r F o r c e B u t b e f o r e t a k i n g up t h a t t a s k , w e m i g h t l o o k b r i e f l y a t the i m p a c t of the r e c e n t r e c e s s i o n o n the b l a c k l a b o r f o r c e . 1 9 7 1 , there w e r e 9.3 m i l l i o n N e g r o e s and o t h e r r a c e s in the labor force. civilian In the s a m e y e a r , the total c i v i l i a n l a b o r force to 8 4 o l m i l l i o n , so b l a c k s r e p r e s e n t e d 1 1 . 1 per c e n t of the the a v e r a g e for the l a s t d e c a d e . In amounted total-- F o r 1971 as a w h o l e , the b l a c k job -6l a b o r f o r c e r o s e b y 124 t h o u s a n d , c o m p a r e d w i t h a rise of 1.4 m i l l i o n in the t o t a l c i v i l i a n l a b o r f o r c e . T h u s , the i n c r e a s e in the b l a c k c o m p o n e n t a m o u n t e d to 8.9 p e r c e n t ; blacks had accounted in the p r e v i o u s for 12.2 p e r c e n t o f l a b o r force growth. T o a c o n s i d e r a b l e e x t e n t , the s l o w e r e x p a n s i o n the n u m b e r of b l a c k s in the w o r k f o r c e r e f l e c t e d i m p a c t o f the r e c e s s i o n . in the ! T h e l a t t e r s a d v e r s e e f f e c t o n the b l a c k c o m m u n i t y is e v i d e n t in the i n c r e a s i n g t e n d e n c y for b l a c k s n o t e v e n to l o o k for j o b s . of a g r o u p ' s w i l l i n g n e s s year, One can m a k e a rough discouraged judgment to e n g a g e in e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y b y tracing 2/ its l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n rate."" F o r b l a c k s as a g r o u p , the p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e h a s b e e n d e c l i n i n g for a n u m b e r of y e a r s , w h i l e it h a s b e e n r i s i n g for w h i t e s . F o r e x a m p l e , the r a t e for b l a c k s f r o m 6 4 . 5 p e r c e n t in 1 9 6 0 to 6 0 . 9 p e r c e n t in 1971; in the same p e r i o d , the r a t e for w h i t e s r o s e f r o m 5 8 . 8 p e r c e n t to 6 0 . 1 p e r T h e s e d i v e r g e n t t r e n d s w e r e a c c e l e r a t e d d u r i n g the 1 9 7 0 - 7 1 r a t e w a s r i s i n g — m o s t p r o b a b l y in r e s p o n s e to the s i z a b l e in w h i t e e m p l o y m e n t . cent. recession. P a r t i c u l a r l y in the l a s t h a l f o f 1 9 7 1 , the p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e b l a c k s s h o w e d c o n s i s t e n t d e c l i n e s a t a t i m e t h a t the w h i t e fell for participation growth Discouragement over employment prospects evidently h a s led m o r e b l a c k s to s t a y o u t of the l a b o r force d u r i n g the r e c o v e r y p e r i o d t h a n c a n b e e x p l a i n e d b y l o n g e r t e r m t r e n d s in the c o m p o s i t i o n of the b l a c k l a b o r f o r c e . age-sex C o n s e q u e n t l y , the b e h a v i o r of l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s s u g g e s t s t h a t the e c o n o m i c situation a m o n g b l a c k s d e t e r i o r a t e d m o r e in 1 9 7 1 c o m p a r e d to w h i t e s t h a n m i g h t be e v i d e n t o n the 2? surface. T h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e is d e f i n e d as the p e r c e n t a g e of the c i v i l i a n n o n i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d p o p u l a t i o n a g e 16 a n d o v e r t h a t is in the civilian labor force. -7S l u g g i s h E x p a n s i o n in J o b s F o r the f i r s t time in a d e c a d e , the n u m b e r of b l a c k s j o b s in 1 9 7 1 w a s b e l o w t h a t for the p r e v i o u s y e a r . the c a s e w i t h w h i t e s . This was not T h e y e a r - t o - y e a r d e c r e a s e in b l a c k employment (while q u i t e m o d e s t ) w a s a d i r e c t r e s u l t of the r e c e s s i o n a n d r e c o v e r y in n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y in 1 9 7 0 - 7 1 . with slow In f a c t , the e m p l o y m e n t e x p e r i e n c e of b l a c k s d u r i n g the last two y e a r s has some s i m i l a r i t y to t h a t r e c o r d e d d u r i n g the 1 9 6 0 - 6 1 b u s i n e s s In g e n e r a l , b l a c k s did r e l a t i v e l y b e t t e r than w h i t e s in the shown cycle. 1969-70 r e c e s s i o n p h a s e of the b u s i n e s s c y c l e and r e l a t i v e l y w o r s e in the 1970-71 recovery stage. I n 1 9 7 1 , a n a v e r a g e of 8 , 4 0 3 t h o u s a n d b l a c k s w e r e j o b s , r e p r e s e n t i n g 10.6 p e r c e n t of t o t a l c i v i l i a n ( w h i c h a m o u n t e d to 7 9 , 1 1 9 t h o u s a n d ) . holding employment H o w e v e r , the n u m b e r o f e m p l o y e d b l a c k s in 1 9 7 1 w a s a b o u t 4 3 t h o u s a n d b e l o w t h a t for the y e a r while total civilian employment was 490 thousand higher. earlier- In c o n t r a s t , in 1 9 7 0 , b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t r o s e b y 62 t h o u s a n d , a c c o u n t i n g for 8.5 p e r c e n t o f the g a i n o f 727 t h o u s a n d in total c i v i l i a n jobs. S e v e r a l d e v e l o p m e n t s in the n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y h e l p e x p l a i n the r e c e n t a d v e r s e b l a c k e x p e r i e n c e o n the j o b s to front. A t the b e g i n n i n g of the e c o n o m i c s l o w d o w n in 1 9 6 9 , e m p l o y m e n t c u t b a c k s w e r e m o s t s e v e r e in p r o f e s s i o n a l jobs r e l a t e d to the d e f e n s e and aerospace industries. Blacks comprise only a minute proportion of the l a b o r force in t h i s s e c t o r a n d thus w e r e n o t a f f e c t e d S e c t o r s s u c h as s e r v i c e s a n d g o v e r n m e n t significantly. (which e m p l o y a h i g h e r fraction -8of b l a c k s ) c o n t i n u e d to e x p a n d t h r o u g h 1 9 6 9 . T h u s , in the initial s t a g e s o f the r e c e n t b u s i n e s s c y c l e , b l a c k s w e r e less a f f e c t e d w e r e w h i t e s — b o t h b y g e n e r a l c y c l i c a l f o r c e s a n d b y the s i t u a t i o n in the d e f e n s e a n d a e r o s p a c e than special industries. In 1 9 7 0 , e m p l o y m e n t c u t b a c k s in the e c o n o m y as a w h o l e w e r e m o r e w i d e s p r e a d as o v e r a l l e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y d e c l i n e d and as business attempted to c o n t r o l c o s t s . Proportionately, employment g r e w s l i g h t l y l e s s for b l a c k s t h a n for w h i t e s in 1 9 7 0 . A smaller r i s e in e m p l o y m e n t for a d u l t b l a c k w o m e n t h a n for a d u l t w h i t e w o m e n — a n d an a c t u a l decline for b l a c k t e e n a g e r s — m o r e than offset a s o m e w h a t f a s t e r r i s e in e m p l o y m e n t for a d u l t b l a c k m e n t h a n for adult white males. H o w e v e r , a s m e n t i o n e d a b o v e , the participation r a t e for b l a c k s c o n t i n u e d its l o n g - r u n d e c l i n e in 1 9 7 0 w h i l e w h i t e p a r t i c i p a t i o n rate showed a slight increase. As a the consequence, the u n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e for b l a c k s did n o t r i s e p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y as m u c h a s the r a t e for w h i t e s . O v e r a l l e m p l o y m e n t i n c r e a s e d v e r y l i t t l e in the half of 1 9 7 1 — a l t h o u g h economic a c t i v i t y showed a mild recovery. C o n t i n u i n g to b e c o n c e r n e d a b o u t i n f l a t i o n a n d low p r o f i t businessmen costs. first levels, a t t e m p t e d to l i m i t h i r i n g in o r d e r to h o l d d o w n In the s e c o n d h a l f of 1 9 7 1 , t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t r o s e H o w e v e r , a l l of t h e g a i n s w e r e m a d e b y w h i t e s . labor substantially. By y e a r - e n d , w h i t e e m p l o y m e n t w a s 1 , 6 3 6 t h o u s a n d a b o v e the l e v e l in D e c e m b e r , 1970; b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t r e g i s t e r e d a s m a l l d e c l i n e of 6 7 , 0 0 0 o v e r the y e a r . -9A g a i n , the c o m p o s i t i o n of the r e c o v e r y in n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c activity h a d a d i r e c t b e a r i n g on the less f a v o r a b l e job e x p e r i e n c e o f b l a c k workers. T h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r o f the e c o n o m y (which a s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r t i o n of b l a c k s in b l u e c o l l a r j o b s ) weak throughout 1971. employs remained In a d d i t i o n , g o v e r n m e n t e m p l o y m e n t (a sector w h e r e b l a c k s a r e w e l l r e p r e s e n t e d ) g r e w m o r e s l o w l y t h a n it h a d in r e c e n t y e a r s p r i o r to 1 9 7 1 . A n e x a m i n a t i o n of the r e c e n t t r e n d s in t h o s e i n d u s t r i e s in w h i c h b l a c k s a r e h e a v i l y represented p r o v i d e s s o m e l i t t l e - n o t e d i n s i g h t s into the s i t u a t i o n o f b l a c k s in the n a t i o n a l economy. P r i v a t e I n d u s t r y P e r f o r m a n c e and B l a c k E m p l o y m e n t A s i n d i c a t e d a b o v e , b l a c k s a r e h e a v i l y d e p e n d e n t on the m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r for e m p l o y m e n t . black m e n . T h i s is e s p e c i a l l y t r u e of It is h a r d to o b t a i n d e t a i l e d s t a t i s t i c s to t r a c e pattern of b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t . T h e m a i n s o u r c e of e m p l o y m e n t d a t a by i n d u s t r y is the s e r i e s of r e p o r t s c o l l e c t e d from p r i v a t e b y the B u r e a u of L a b o r S t a t i s t i c s (BLS). establishments This s e r i e s d o e s n o t a r a c i a l b r e a k d o w n o f the n u m b e r of w o r k e r s r e p o r t e d . T h i s s e r i e s as p u b l i s h e d d o e s include In a d d i t i o n , B L S p u b l i s h e s e m p l o y m e n t d a t a c o l l e c t e d b y the B u r e a u of the in its h o u s e h o l d s u r v e y . the Census include e s t i m a t e s of e m p l o y m e n t by d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s - - s u c h as a g e , sex, and race. H o w e v e r , w h i l e an industry distribution of employment c a n b e c a l c u l a t e d b y BLS on the b a s i s of the d a t a c o l l e c t e d , such calculations are not published. Opportunity Commission F i n a l l y , the E q u a l Employment (EEOC) c o l l e c t s e m p l o y m e n t data o n c e e a c h y e a r -10f r o m the l a r g e r c o m p a n i e s u n d e r the C i v i l R i g h t s A c t of 1 9 6 4 . At m y r e q u e s t , BLS h a s g i v e n m e p e r m i s s i o n to u s e the r a t i o s calculated f r o m the h o u s e h o l d d a t a s h o w i n g b l a c k s a s a p e r c e n t a g e of total e m p l o y m e n t in e a c h i n d u s t r y . calculated U s i n g the same d a t a , I h a v e the p e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n , b y b r o a d i n d u s t r y g r o u p i n g s , of t o t a l and black employment. Tables 2, 3, and D a t a f r o m t h e s e three s o u r c e s a r e p r e s e n t e d in 4. T h e h e a v y d e p e n d e n c e of b l a c k s o n f a c t o r y j o b s c l e a r l y s u g g e s t e d in the E E O C d a t a s h o w n in T a b l e 2 . is In 1970 (the m o s t r e c e n t y e a r for w h i c h s t a t i s t i c s a r e a v a i l a b l e ) , a b o u t 3.0 m i l l i o n b l a c k s w e r e on the p a y r o l l s of p r i v a t e e m p l o y e r s (mainly 3/ l a r g e c o m p a n i e s ) r e p o r t i n g u n d e r the E E O C r e q u i r e m e n t s . This n u m b e r r e p r e s e n t e d 10.3 per c e n t of the 28.9 m i l l i o n w o r k e r s by t h e s e c o m p a n i e s . A b o u t 1.4 m i l l i o n reported (48.7 p e r c e n t ) o f the 3 . 0 m i l l i o n b l a c k j o b h o l d e r s r e p o r t e d w e r e e m p l o y e d in m a n u f a c t u r i n g , . T h i s p r o p o r t i o n w a s n o t a p p r e c i a b l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h a t for a l l EEOC-reported jobholders (50.3 p e r c e n t ) . H o w e v e r , s i n c e the E E O C r e p o r t s a r e m o r e c o m p l e t e for m a n u f a c t u r i n g t h a n for o t h e r t h e s e r a t i o s t e n d to o v e r s t a t e sectors, the a c t u a l d e g r e e o f r e l i a n c e on m a n u f a c t u r i n g as a source of j o b s . 3/ T h e s e d a t a a r e r e p o r t e d a n n u a l l y to the U . S . E q u a l E m p l o y m e n t O p p o r t u n i t y C o m m i s s i o n u n d e r T i t l e V I I of the C i v i l R i g h t s A c t of 1 9 6 4 . T h e s t a t i s t i c s do n o t c o v e r a l l e m p l o y m e n t ; they h a v e o n l y l i m i t e d c o v e r a g e o f s m a l l f i r m s , a n d no r e p o r t s for g o v e r n m e n t s a n d e d u c a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s a r e i n c l u d e d . H o w e v e r , the E E O C r e p o r t s do c o v e r a s u b s t a n t i a l p r o p o r t i o n of t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t in s o m e i n d u s t r i e s . About t h r e e - q u a r t e r s of t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t in m a n u f a c t u r i n g , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , c o m m u n i c a t i o n , and electric and gas utilities are r e p o r t e d , and w e l l o v e r o n e - h a l f of the t o t a l in m i n i n g , a n d in f i n a n c e , i n s u r a n c e a n d r e a l e s t a t e is c o v e r e d . O n the o t h e r h a n d , the r e p o r t s c o v e r o n l y a b o u t o n e - t h i r d of t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t in w h o l e s a l e a n d r e t a i l t r a d e , a n d in s e r v i c e s . J u s t u n d e r o n e - f i f t h of c o n t r a c t c o n s t r u c t i o n e m p l o y m e n t is c o v e r e d . C o v e r a g e a n d o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f the E E O C d a t a a r e d i s c u s s e d f u r t h e r in the n o t e s to T a b l e 2 . -11A s o m e w h a t m o r e b a l a n c e d p i c t u r e of the i n d u s t r y o f b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t is p r o v i d e d b y the BLS h o u s e h o l d distribution data. A s s h o w n in T a b l e 3 , w h e n the m o r e c o m p r e h e n s i v e s t a t i s t i c s are a n a l y z e d , a b o u t 2 3 . 0 p e r c e n t of b l a c k j o b h o l d e r s in 1 9 7 1 w e r e e m p l o y e d in m a n u f a c t u r i n g . T h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p r o p o r t i o n for total employment was 24.7 per cent. to a l l w o r k e r s — h a v e in T a b l e 3 . T h e e x t e n t to w h i c h blacks—compared found j o b s in o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s is a l s o F o r e x a m p l e , the p r o p o r t i o n o f the b l a c k w o r k shown force e m p l o y e d in t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d p u b l i c u t i l i t i e s is r o u g h l y the s a m e a s t h a t for a l l w o r k e r s — 6 . 6 p e r c e n t a n d 6.7 p e r c e n t , r e s p e c t i v e l y . H o w e v e r , a s i z a b l e d i v e r g e n c e is e v i d e n t in the t r a d e f i e l d , in w h i c h 1 4 . 2 p e r c e n t of b l a c k s - - i n c o n t r a s t to 2 0 . 1 p e r c e n t o f the t o t a l — h a d found jobs. A s m a l l e r (but s t i l l n o t i c e a b l e ) c a n b e s e e n in the c a s e o f f i n a n c e , i n s u r a n c e a n d r e a l divergence estate—which a c c o u n t e d for 5 . 2 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t c o m p a r e d w i t h 3.6 p e r c e n t of b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t . r e p r e s e n t e d in s e r v i c e s c e n t o f the O n the o t h e r h a n d , b l a c k s w e r e (29.1 p e r c e n t o f e m p l o y e d b l a c k s v s . 2 0 . 1 per total). W i t h i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g , blacks were found employed in h e a v y i n d u s t r y . They w e r e found producing transportation equipment metals overly (particularly steel); especially in particularly industries (mainly automobiles); in p r i m a r y in e l e c t r i c a l e q u i p m e n t ; i n food a n d r e l a t e d p r o d u c t s , a n d in t e x t i l e m i l l p r o d u c t s . While blacks held a b o u t 9 . 9 p e r c e n t of the t o t a l j o b s in m a n u f a c t u r i n g a s a w h o l e , -12in s e v e r a l i n d u s t r i e s , t h e i r s h a r e of the j o b s w a s higher. considerably F o r e x a m p l e , a s s h o w n in T a b l e 4 , in 1 9 7 1 , t h e i r s h a r e s w e r e : tobacco, 32.5 per cent; l u m b e r a n d w o o d p r o d u c t s , 20 per c e n t ; p r i m a r y m e t a l s , 14.4 per cent; p r o c e s s i n g , 12.4 per cent; a p p a r e l , 13.2 p e r c e n t ; food s t o n e , c l a y a n d g l a s s , 11.9 p e r cent; t r a n s p o r t a t i o n e q u i p m e n t , 11.6 p e r c e n t a n d f u r n i t u r e , 11.5 p e r cent. In weighing these figures on b l a c k employment in m a n u f a c t u r i n g , h o w e v e r , one should not conclude that blacks have a n e q u a l c h a n c e for a d v a n c e m e n t in the n a t i o n ' s f a c t o r i e s . far f r o m the c a s e . T h i s is T o a c o n s i d e r a b l e e x t e n t , the i n d u s t r i e s l a r g e n u m b e r s o f b l a c k e m p l o y e e s a r e t h o s e in w h i c h n u m e r o u s are unpleasant and routine or w h i c h require much physical or long e n d u r a n c e . with jobs strength M o r e o v e r , b l a c k s a r e t y p i c a l l y f o u n d in the lower paid blue collar occupations requiring only limited G i v e n this e x c e p t i o n a l d e p e n d e n c e of b l a c k s o n j o b s , the s l u g g i s h n e s s skills. factory in m a n u f a c t u r i n g d u r i n g the l a s t two y e a r s w a s b o u n d to h a v e a s e r i o u s i m p a c t on the b l a c k c o m m u n i t y . w h i l e t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t r o s e b y 727 t h o u s a n d factory jobs declined by 768 thousand In 1970, (or b y 0 . 9 p e r cent), (or b y 3 . 8 p e r c e n t ) . y e a r , t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t r e g i s t e r e d a n o t h e r modest g a i n of 4 9 1 (0.6 p e r c e n t ) , b u t the n u m b e r of f a c t o r y w o r k e r s d r o p p e d 761 thousand (or b y 3 . 9 p e r c e n t ) . Last thousand further--by Over this two-year p e r i o d , total f a c t o r y e m p l o y m e n t d e c l i n e d b y 1.5 m i l l i o n , a d e c r e a s e o f 7.7 p e r found cent. -13T h e i n d u s t r i e s in w h i c h b l a c k s h a v e s i g n i f i c a n t experienced even larger setbacks; representation transportation equipment a t w o - y e a r d e c l i n e of 15 per c e n t ; recorded n o n e l e c t r i c a l m a c h i n e r y 12 p e r cent; electrical machinery 11-1/2 per c e n t , and primary metals 10 p e r cent. In c o n t r a s t , s e v e r a l s e c t o r s w h i c h p r o v i d e a p r o p o r t i o n of a l l b l a c k jobs c o n t i n u e d the r e c e n t r e c e s s i o n . smaller to e x p a n d t o t a l jobs d u r i n g F o r e x a m p l e , t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t in w h o l e s a l e a n d r e t a i l t r a d e r o s e b y n e a r l y 4 p e r c e n t d u r i n g the two y e a r s 1970 and 1971. T h e g a i n in f i n a n c e , i n s u r a n c e and r e a l e s t a t e a m o u n t e d to 7 p e r c e n t . E m p l o y m e n t in s e r v i c e s e x p a n d e d b y 6 p e r c e n t in the same p e r i o d . H o w e v e r , in e a c h of these i n d u s t r y groups ( e x c e p t s e r v i c e s ) , b l a c k s g e n e r a l l y h a v e a s m a l l e r s h a r e of the t o t a l j o b s t h a n they h a v e in the e c o n o m y as a w h o l e . O n b a l a n c e , the c o n t i n u e d g r o w t h of t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t the trade a n d s e r v i c e s e c t o r s c u s h i o n e d r e c e s s i o n in the e c o n o m y as a w h o l e . the i m p a c t of the B u t b l a c k s did n o t in 1970-71 share p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y in t h e s e g a i n s b e c a u s e t h e y a r e g e n e r a l l y u n d e r r e p r e s e n t e d in the h i g h l y - p a i d e x p a n d i n g s e c t o r s and over-represented in l o w - p a i d s e r v i c e a c t i v i t i e s or in t h o s e m a n u f a c t u r i n g w h i c h w e r e s t a g n a n t or industries declining. B l a c k s in G o v e r n m e n t J o b s In the c a s e of p u b l i c s e c t o r e m p l o y m e n t , b l a c k s h a v e had a m i x e d e x p e r i e n c e o v e r the last two y e a r s . As m e n t i o n e d above, b l a c k s c o n s t i t u t e a n a b o v e - a v e r a g e p r o p o r t i o n of the p e r s o n s employed -14in g o v e r n m e n t s e r v i c e . F o r e x a m p l e , in M a y , 1 9 7 1 , t h e r e w e r e thousand blacks employed This represented in c i v i l i a n j o b s in the F e d e r a l 389 Government. 15 p e r c e n t o f the 2.6 m i l l i o n c i v i l i a n s o n the Federal payroll at that time. In c o n t r a s t , b l a c k s a c c o u n t e d for 1 0 . 6 p e r c e n t of a l l c i v i l i a n e m p l o y e e s in the c o u n t r y in the same month. M o r e o v e r , w h i l e F e d e r a l employment provided 3.3 per cent o f the t o t a l c i v i l i a n j o b s , a b o u t 4 . 6 p e r c e n t of the b l a c k s c i v i l i a n j o b s w e r e o n the F e d e r a l p a y r o l l . and local governments holding I n the c a s e of S t a t e (many o f w h i c h h a v e s u b s t a n t i a l n u m b e r s of b l a c k s in t h e i r j u r i s d i c t i o n ) the p e r c e n t a g e o f b l a c k s a m o n g a l l p u b l i c e m p l o y e e s m a y -be e v e n h i g h e r than it is i n the F e d e r a l Government. G i v e n t h i s s i t u a t i o n , the d o w n t r e n d in e m p l o y m e n t in the F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t in the l a s t two y e a r s s e e m s to h a v e h a d a m i x e d e f f e c t on b l a c k s . In the two c a l e n d a r y e a r s 1 9 7 0 a n d 1 9 7 1 , t o t a l c i v i l i a n e m p l o y m e n t in the F e d e r a l G o v e r n m e n t d r o p p e d b y 93 a d e c l i n e of 3 . 3 p e r c e n t . thousand, H e r e , of c o u r s e , the c u t b a c k in e m p l o y m e n t r e f l e c t e d a c o n s c i o u s e f f o r t to p a r e t h e l e v e l a n d s c o p e o f G o v e r n m e n t a c t i v i t i e s — a n d w a s n o t a b y - p r o d u c t o f the r e c e s s i o n . Exactly how these reductions have affected blacks cannot be determined of a l a c k o f d a t a for 1 9 7 1 as a w h o l e . Between M a y , 1970 and M a y , total Federal employment declined 15,000, and Negro declined 798. b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t in b l u e c o l l a r jobs a n d in l o w e r g r a d e l e v e l s in of B l a c k s m a d e f u r t h e r g a i n s in b o t h the h i g h e r g r a d e s o f the p o s t a l s e r v i c e a n d in c i v i l s e r v i c e w h i t e c o l l a r 1971, employment This net decline among blacks reflected a drop the P o s t a l F i e l d S e r v i c e . because jobs. -15Y e t , we know that blacks are still heavily concentrated in the l o w e r g r a d e s of uhe F e d e r a l s e r v i c e w h e r e t u r n o v e r is high. T h u s , in the l i g h t of the d e c i s i o n to r e d u c e typically Federal G o v e r n m e n t e m p l o y m e n t b y 5 p e r c e n t d u r i n g the c u r r e n t f i s c a l y e a r , o n e m i g h t a s k w h e t h e r b l a c k s a r e l i k e l y to b e e x p o s e d to a m u c h h i g h e r rate o f a t t r i t i o n t h a n t h a t faced b y the a v e r a g e w h i t e employee. A n i n f o r m a l r e q u e s t to the C i v i l S e r v i c e Commission for d a t a to a s s e s s this p o s s i b i l i t y d i d n o t y i e l d the statistical information--although necessary the C o m m i s s i o n h a s n o t h a t the c u t b a c k in G o v e r n m e n t e m p l o y m e n t is a f f e c t i n g indication blacks adversely. S i m u l t a n e o u s l y , the F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k s w e r e a s k e d to r e v i e w the s i t u a t i o n w i t h i n the F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s t e m . The r e s u l t s of t h i s s u r v e y show t h a t , b e t w e e n D e c e m b e r , 1 9 7 0 , a n d D e c e m b e r , 1 9 7 1 , t o t a l B a n k e m p l o y m e n t i n c r e a s e d b y 1.7 p e r c e n t , w h i l e b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t r o s e b y 3.7 p e r c e n t . H o w e v e r , the r e s u l t s a l s o i n d i c a t e d that the t u r n o v e r r a t e a m o n g b l a c k e m p l o y e e s w a s n e a r l y 1 - 1 / 2 times a s h i g h a s t h a t for a l l e m p l o y e e s per cent). (30 p e r c e n t v s . 21 The turnover rate was particularly high among blacks in the lower g r a d e s . the turnover rate F o r e x a m p l e , a m o n g b l a c k m e n in g r a d e s 1 - 5 , w a s 43 p e r c e n t , c o m p a r e d w i t h 15 p e r c e n t for a l l m e n in that c a t e g o r y . F o r b l a c k m e n in g r a d e s 6 a n d o v e r , the t u r n o v e r r a t e w a s 16 p e r c e n t , c o m p a r e d w i t h 13 p e r c e n t for a l l m e n in the s a m e b r a c k e t s . pattern prevailed In the case of b l a c k w o m e n , a for t h o s e in the l o w e r g r a d e s similar (39 p e r c e n t for -16b l a c k w o m e n v s . 34 p e r c e n t f o r a l l f e m a l e s ) . B u t in the h i g h e r g r a d e s , black w o m e n had a somewhat lower turnover rate than was t r u e of a l l w o m e n e m p l o y e e s (11 p e r c e n t v s . 13 per cent). T h e s e d a t a for the F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k s a r e probably i n d i c a t i v e of the b e h a v i o r o f b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t in the F e d e r a l Government as w e l l . S o , w h e n the c e n s u s o f F e d e r a l e m p l o y m e n t is c o n d u c t e d l a t e r t h i s y e a r , the r e s u l t s s h o u l d b e s t u d i e d to see w h e t h e r the h i g h t u r n o v e r a m o n g b l a c k s has been translated into h i g h a t t r i t i o n r a t e s - - a n d thus i n t o a d e c l i n e in the p e r c e n t a g e blacks employed in the F e d e r a l of Government. I n the c a s e o f S t a t e a n d l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s , the n u m b e r of w o r k e r s o n t h e i r p a y r o l l s e x p a n d e d b y 744 t h o u s a n d d u r i n g the two y e a r s 1 9 7 0 a n d 1 9 7 1 . local l e v e l — e s p e c i a l l y populations. (7.9 p e r M o s t of this g r o w t h w a s a t the in l a r g e u r b a n a r e a s w i t h s i z a b l e black A g a i n s t this b a c k g r o u n d , o n e w o u l d h a v e e x p e c t e d to o b t a i n a s i g n i f i c a n t s h a r e o f the r i s e in p u b l i c s e r v i c e a t the S t a t e a n d l o c a l cent) blacks employment level. In c o n c l u s i o n , w h e n t h e s e d i f f e r e n t e m p l o y m e n t t r e n d s a r e pulled together, a fairly c l e a r — b u t emerges: far f r o m comfortable—picture the d e p r e s s e d c o n d i t i o n s i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s p a r t i a l l y o f f s e t b y g r o w t h in o t h e r s e c t o r s ) h a v e h a d a seriously a d v e r s e e f f e c t o n b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t in the l a s t two y e a r s . r e s u l t h a s b e e n a h a l t in the v i g o r o u s g r o w t h of b l a c k r e g i s t e r e d d u r i n g the l a s t h a l f o f the f 1960 s. (only The net employment -17T r e n d of Unemployment In 1 9 7 1 , a n a v e r a g e of 919 t h o u s a n d b l a c k s w e r e this r e p r e s e n t e d 9.9 p e r c e n t of the b l a c k c i v i l i a n l a b o r unemployed; force. I n the c a s e of w h i t e s , u n e m p l o y m e n t a v e r a g e d 4 . 1 m i l l i o n , e q u i v a l e n t to a n u n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e of 5.4 p e r c e n t . For all groups combined, u n e m p l o y m e n t in 1 9 7 1 a v e r a g e d 5.0 m i l l i o n , or 5.9 p e r c e n t o f the total civilian labor force. Over the last two y e a r s - - a n d reflecting the i m p a c t o f the r e c e s s i o n - - t h e total n u m b e r o f u n e m p l o y e d r o s e b y 2.2 m i l l i o n , a n i n c r e a s e of n e a r l y f o u r - f i f t h s . workers Among b l a c k s , u n e m p l o y m e n t c l i m b e d b y 348 t h o u s a n d , a r i s e of m o r e three-fifths. than A l m o s t 60 p e r cent of the t w o - y e a r r i s e in t o t a l u n e m p l o y m e n t o c c u r r e d in 1 9 7 0 - - w h i c h e n c o m p a s s e d m o s t of the p h a s e o f the r e c e s s i o n . downward B u t in the case of b l a c k s , the i n c r e a s e joblessness was about evenly divided between 1970 and 1971. in O n the o t h e r h a n d , b l a c k u n e m p l o y m e n t as a p r o p o r t i o n o f a l l u n e m p l o y e d w o r k e r s d e c l i n e d f r o m 2 0 . 2 per c e n t in 1969 to 1 8 . 4 p e r c e n t in b o t h 1970 a n d 1 9 7 1 . O f c o u r s e , this d e c l i n e r e f l e c t e d the f a c t t h a t the n u m b e r o f u n e m p l o y e d w h i t e s r o s e m u c h f a s t e r in 1 9 7 0 t h a n w a s c a s e in the b l a c k c o m m u n i t y . A n d it is n o t e w o r t h y t h a t b y the e n d of 1 9 7 1 , the p r o p o r t i o n had r i s e n b a c k to 19.0 p e r c e n t . Nevertheless, w h i l e b l a c k s r e p r e s e n t e d 11 p e r c e n t of the l a b o r f o r c e , t h e y a c c o u n t e d for n e a r l y o n e - f i f t h of t o t a l u n e m p l o y m e n t in the 1971. still -18Of the t o t a l r i s e in b l a c k u n e m p l o y m e n t o v e r the 1970-71 p e r i o d , h a l f w a s a c c o u n t e d for b y a d u l t m e n , a t h i r d b y adult w o m e n , and a sixth by teenagers. U n e m p l o y m e n t of a d u l t m e n a n d teenagers r o s e m o r e r a p i d l y in 1 9 7 0 , a n d u n e m p l o y m e n t of a d u l t w o m e n r o s e m o r e r a p i d l y in 1 9 7 1 . T h e c u t b a c k in m a n u f a c t u r i n g j o b s accounts f o r m u c h o f the r i s e in b l a c k a d u l t m a l e u n e m p l o y m e n t in the recession year 1970. In 1 9 7 1 , a d u l t f e m a l e s i n c r e a s e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n in the l a b o r force s l i g h t l y their (most l i k e l y in a n e f f o r t to i m p r o v e f a m i l y i n c o m e a t a time w h e n m a n y m e n w e r e o u t of w o r k ) , b u t the s l a c k job m a r k e t r e s u l t e d in i n c r e a s e d f e m a l e unemployment. B l a c k t e e n a g e r s , o n the o t h e r h a n d , s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e d u c e d their p a r t i c i p a t i o n in the l a b o r force a f t e r e x p e r i e n c i n g r i s i n g joblessness in 1 9 7 0 a n d , t h u s , t h e i r u n e m p l o y m e n t d i d n o t r i s e a s r a p i d l y in 1971. A b r i e f c o m p a r i s o n o f the u n e m p l o y m e n t e x p e r i e n c e during the r e c e n t c y c l i c a l p e r i o d a n d the r e c e s s i o n a n d r e c o v e r y y e a r s of 1 9 6 0 - 6 1 p o i n t s up s e v e r a l s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t s . As noted earlier, b l a c k s f a r e d r e l a t i v e l y b e t t e r than w h i t e s in the r e c e s s i o n p h a s e o f the c y c l e in b o t h p e r i o d s . The level of black unemployment r o s e 26 p e r c e n t f r o m the p e a k q u a r t e r to the t r o u g h q u a r t e r in the 1 9 6 0 - 6 1 p e r i o d c o m p a r e d to a r i s e of 32 p e r c e n t for w h i t e s . In the r e c e n t p e r i o d , the l e v e l o f b l a c k u n e m p l o y m e n t r o s e 50 p e r c e n t from -194/ p e a k to t r o u g h c o m p a r e d w i t h a rise of a l m o s t 70 p e r c e n t for w h i t e s . In b o t h p e r i o d s , the r a t i o o f b l a c k to w h i t e unemployment r a t e s d e c l i n e d d u r i n g the r e c e s s i o n p h a s e of the c y c l e . 1 mid-1950 s F r o m the 1 t h r o u g h the 1 9 6 0 s (except for 1 9 6 5 ) , the b l a c k r a t e w a s m o r e t h a n d o u b l e the w h i t e r a t e . The b l a c k - w h i t e unemployment ratio w a s s t i l l 2j06 in 1 9 6 9 , b u t it d e c l i n e d to L82 in 1 9 7 0 . In the f i r s t y e a r of r e c o v e r y from the trough in 1 9 7 0 , w h i t e s fared r e l a t i v e l y b e t t e r than b l a c k s as e v i d e n c e d b y a r i s e in the r a t i o of b l a c k to w h i t e u n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e s from L64 in N o v e m b e r , 1 9 7 0 , to 2j00 in J a n u a r y of this y e a r . However, of equal n o t e is the f a c t that in the r e c e n t r e c o v e r y y e a r , u n e m p l o y m e n t l e v e l s for b o t h b l a c k s a n d w h i t e s c o n t i n u e d to r i s e (by 11.1 p e r c e n t for b l a c k s a n d b y 1.7 p e r c e n t for w h i t e s ) w h e r e a s in the f i r s t y e a r o f r e c o v e r y in the e a r l i e r p e r i o d , u n e m p l o y m e n t l e v e l s d e c l i n e d 8.7 p e r c e n t for b l a c k s a n d b y 19.6 p e r c e n t for w h i t e s ) . The c o n t i n u e d low r a t e o f a c t i v i t y in the m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r of the e c o n o m y a n d the o n l y m o d e s t g r o w t h in o t h e r s e c t o r s h a s r e s u l t e d a m u c h less d y n a m i c r e c o v e r y p r o c e s s for e m p l o y m e n t in the (by in current period. 4/ I t m i g h t b e n o t e d t h a t the l a r g e r r i s e in u n e m p l o y m e n t for b l a c k s a n d for w h i t e s in the r e c e n t cycle has b e e n d u e in l a r g e p a r t to the f a s t e r g r o w t h of the c i v i l i a n labor f o r c e . T h i s h a s b e e n a r e s u l t o f the entrance of the m e m b e r s of the p o s t - w a r b a b y b o o m into w o r k i n g a g e g r o u p s , the c h a n g i n g w o r k i n g h a b i t s of w o m e n ( p a r t i c u l a r l y w h i t e w o m e n ) , and the r e t u r n of n u m e r o u s V i e t n a m v e t e r a n s to c i v i l i a n l i f e . -20O n e f u r t h e r d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n the two c y c l i c a l w h i c h h a s i m p l i c a t i o n s for e m p l o y m e n t p r o s p e c t s is that periods teenagers a r e a m u c h m o r e i m p o r t a n t factor in the e c o n o m y t o d a y t h a n years ago. B e t w e e n 1961 a n d 1 9 7 1 , as a r e s u l t of a s h a r p in the n u m b e r of y o u t h s in the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n , b l a c k ten increase teenagers (age 1 6 - 1 9 ) g r e w from j u s t o v e r 7 p e r c e n t to j u s t o v e r 8 p e r cent of the b l a c k c i v i l i a n labor f o r c e . lack However, because of their of training and w o r k experience, teenagers have remained a t about 6 p e r c e n t of b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t . As a r e s u l t , teenagers accounted for 27 p e r c e n t of b l a c k u n e m p l o y m e n t in 1 9 7 1 c o m p a r e d w i t h 16 p e r c e n t in 1961. C l e a r l y , the h i g h and p e r s i s t e n t l e v e l of b l a c k unemployment is a s e r i o u s m a t t e r , a n d I w i l l r e t u r n to the s u b j e c t in the s e c t i o n of t h e s e closing comments. I n c o m e T r e n d s in the B l a c k C o m m u n i t y A n o t h e r w a y o f l o o k i n g a t the e c o n o m i c s i t u a t i o n of b l a c k s is to e x a m i n e t h e i r i n c o m e . a v a i l a b l e ) show unrelated D a t a for 1 9 7 0 (the m o s t c u r r e n t y e a r t h a t t o t a l m o n e y i n c o m e for b l a c k f a m i l i e s a n d i n d i v i d u a l s w a s $42 b i l l i o n . T h i s w a s 6.5 p e r c e n t of t o t a l m o n e y i n c o m e w h i c h a m o u n t e d to $ 6 4 9 b i l l i o n in t h a t y e a r . T h i s s h a r e s h o u l d b e w e i g h e d a g a i n s t the f a c t t h a t b l a c k s a b o u t 1 1 . 3 p e r c e n t of the total p o p u l a t i o n . income of blacks The median compose family in 1970 w a s $ 6 , 5 1 6 , a r i s e o f 5 . 3 p e r c e n t over 1 9 6 9 - - b u t s t i l l o n l y 64 p e r c e n t of the w h i t e m e d i a n i n c o m e of $10,236. -21In g e n e r a l , b l a c k families m a d e g r e a t s t r i d e s o v e r the l a s t d e c a d e in i n c r e a s i n g their i n c o m e . Black m e d i a n family income in 1970 w a s m o r e t h a n d o u b l e the level in 1 9 6 1 w h i c h a p p e a r s c o m p a r e f a v o r a b l y w i t h a r i s e of 71 per c e n t for w h i t e o v e r the same p e r i o d . families H o w e v e r , in a b s o l u t e t e r m s , b l a c k families r e c e i v e d a n a v e r a g e of $ 3 , 7 2 0 less than w h i t e f a m i l i e s in t h e y r e c e i v e $ 2 , 7 9 0 less in 1 9 6 1 . 1970--whereas T h i s d i f f e r e n c e in 1970 w a s e q u a l to 57 p e r c e n t of b l a c k f a m i l i e s 1 median income. Thus, although b l a c k s h a v e b e e n g a i n i n g r e l a t i v e to w h i t e s o v e r the d e c a d e t h i s p r o g r e s s d o e s n o t a p p e a r to h a v e b e e n s e r i o u s l y (and interupted b y the r e c e n t r e c e s s i o n in 1 9 7 0 ) , they s t i l l lag far b e h i n d average American white to the family. A s e c o n d w a y of c o m p a r i n g i n c o m e d i f f e r e n c e s is to l o o k a t h o w i n c o m e is d i s t r i b u t e d a m o n g the r e s p e c t i v e b l a c k a n d w h i t e populations. The m o s t c o m m o n w a y of d o i n g this is to u s e a statistical measure ( r e f e r r e d to b y e c o n o m i s t s a s the fl Gini M coefficient) s h o w i n g how e q u a l l y i n c o m e is d i s t r i b u t e d w i t h i n a p o p u l a t i o n . If a g i v e n p e r c e n t a g e o f the p o p u l a t i o n r e c e i v e s a n e q u a l percentage o f t h e total i n c o m e and this holds true for a l l g r o u p s in the t h e n the d e g r e e of i n c o m e i n e q u a l i t y w o u l d b e z e r o . population, Calculations o f this m e a s u r e b y the B u r e a u of the C e n s u s f o r b l a c k a n d w h i t e f a m i l i e s i n d i c a t e that b l a c k income h a s h i s t o r i c a l l y b e e n less equally d i s t r i b u t e d t h a n w h i t e f a m i l y i n c o m e e v e n t h o u g h the differences b e t w e e n the two h a v e n a r r o w e d s l i g h t l y over t h e last decade. -22H o w e v e r , in r e c e n t p e r i o d s of d e c l i n i n g or s l o w e c o n o m i c the d i f f e r e n c e s have increased. growth, in the i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n for b l a c k a n d w h i t e T h i s w a s true d u r i n g the b r i e f p e r i o d o f e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y in 1967 and a l s o in families declining 1970. In g e n e r a l , this p a t t e r n of i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n that lower income black families receive an even smaller implies proportion o f t o t a l m o n e y i n c o m e t h a n d o l o w e r i n c o m e w h i t e f a m i l i e s in p e r i o d s of r e d u c e d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . S o m e o f the g r e a t e r s e n s i t i v i t y o f the i n c o m e o f b l a c k f a m i l i e s to c y c l i c a l s l o w d o w n s m a y b e explained p a r t i a l l y b y the f a c t that a r a p i d l y i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f b l a c k f a m i l i e s is h e a d e d b y f e m a l e s ( 3 - 1 / 4 t i m e s a s m a n y a s w h i t e in 1 9 7 0 c o m p a r e d w i t h 2 - 1 / 2 times a s m a n y in 1 9 6 0 ) . families The fact that the a v e r a g e n u m b e r of e a r n e r s in b l a c k f a m i l i e s h a s a c t u a l l y b e e n d e c l i n i n g in the last few y e a r s (in c o n t r a s t to a r i s e in the a v e r a g e n u m b e r o f e a r n e r s of w h i t e f a m i l i e s ) m a y a l s o to the o b s e r v e d r e s u l t s . contribute T h u s , a l t h o u g h income of blacks appears to h a v e h e l d u p q u i t e w e l l in the r e c e n t p e r i o d , it s t i l l l a g s far b e h i n d w h i t e i n c o m e . In a d d i t i o n , a v e r a g e s for b l a c k s a s a w h o l e m a y d i s g u i s e a d e t e r i o r a t i n g s i t u a t i o n for l o w e r black income families. F e d e r a l Income Taxes Paid by Blacks A n o t h e r p e r s p e c t i v e o n the e c o n o m i c s i t u a t i o n o f b l a c k s is p r o v i d e d b y a n a n a l y s i s of the F e d e r a l i n c o m e t a x e s p a i d b y I have estimated them. that N e g r o e s a n d o t h e r r a c e s p a i d a b o u t $ 4 . 6 8 b i l l i o n -23in F e d e r a l i n c o m e taxes in 1 9 6 9 , w h i l e their i n c o m e a m o u n t e d $41.22 billion« W h i t e f a m i l i e s and i n d i v i d u a l s r e c e i v e d b i l l i o n in i n c o m e and p a i d F e d e r a l income taxes of $81.92 billion. T h u s , w h i l e blacks and other races to $562.33 approximately constituted a b o u t 13 p e r c e n t of the p o p u l a t i o n , they r e c e i v e d a b o u t 6 . 8 per c e n t o f the a d j u s t e d g r o s s i n c o m e , filed 11.5 p e r c e n t o f the tax r e t u r n s , a n d p a i d r o u g h l y 5 . 4 p e r c e n t of the F e d e r a l income taxes in 1 9 6 9 . T h i s e s t i m a t e of F e d e r a l i n c o m e taxes p a i d b y b l a c k s w a s d e r i v e d on the b a s i s o f s p e c i a l t a b u l a t i o n s of h o u s e h o l d sample d a t a c o l l e c t e d b y the B u r e a u o f the C e n s u s for its 1969 r e p o r t on consumer income.—/ S i n c e D r . H e r m a n M i l l e r and M r . R o g e r Herriot (both of the C e n s u s B u r e a u ) h a d a l r e a d y d e v i s e d a m e a n s of C e n s u s d a t a to I n t e r n a l R e v e n u e S e r v i c e (IRS) s t a t i s t i c s linking relating 6/ to F e d e r a l i n c o m e t a x e s , paid by race. Bureau were I a p p l i e d their m e t h o d to e s t i m a t e taxes F o r this p u r p o s e , the s p e c i a l t a b u l a t i o n s b y the C e n s u s required. W h i l e the m e t h o d d e v i s e d b y M i l l e r a n d H e r r i o t (and used b y m e ) h a s l i m i t a t i o n s - ^ it seems a c c u r a t e e n o u g h to y i e l d r e a s o n a b l e 5>/ U . S . B u r e a u of the C e n s u s , C u r r e n t P o p u l a t i o n R e p o r t s , S e r i e s P - 6 0 , N o . 7 5 , " I n c o m e in 1969 o f F a m i l i e s and P e r s o n s in the U n i t e d S t a t e s , " 1 9 7 0 . 6/ See t h e i r p a p e r , "Who P a i d Taxes in 1968," ( M i m e o ) , M a r c h , 1 9 7 1 . J7/ F o r e x a m p l e , c a p i t a l g a i n s are n o t r e c o r d e d in the C e n s u s d a t a , b u t they do p l a y a n i m p o r t a n t p a r t in the c a l c u l a t i o n o f F e d e r a l income t a x e s . H o w e v e r , this m a y b e i n d i r e c t l y c o m p e n s a t e d for b y a n a d j u s t m e n t in the C e n s u s data to a c c o u n t for trusts and u n d e r - r e p o r t e d i n c o m e in the s a m p l e . F u r t h e r m o r e , w e found t h a t our* e s t i m a t e s of d o l l a r a m o u n t s of taxes a n d a d j u s t e d g r o s s income are h i g h e r t h a n the a c t u a l f i g u r e s - s i n c e there is s o m e i n c o m e that is s i m p l y n o t r e p o r t e d to the I R S . Our a d j u s t e d g r o s s income w a s 3 per c e n t a b o v e the a c t u a l IRS f i g u r e s . The a m o u n t of taxes p a i d v a r i e d by m e t h o d of e s t i m a t i o n . The M i l l e r - H e r r i o t M e t h o d g a v e a figure 9 p e r cent a b o v e the r e p o r t e d l e v e l . A second m e t h o d of e s t i m a t i o n t h a t uses e f f e c t i v e tax r a t e s (instead of a v e r a g e tax b y r e t u r n ) g i v e s t a x e s w i t h i n 4 per c e n t o f the a m o u n t a c t u a l l y r e p o r t e d . T h e e s t i m a t e d p e r c e n t a g e s of taxes p a i d b y race do n o t v a r y w i t h the p r o c e d u r e u s e d . -24results. F o r e x a m p l e , IRS r e p o r t s s h o w t h a t t h e r e w e r e 7 5 . 8 m i l l i o n 8/ r e t u r n s f i l e d in 1969."" Of this t o t a l , 63.7 m i l l i o n r e t u r n s w e r e t a x a b l e , a n d they r e p r e s e n t e d $ 6 0 3 . 5 b i l l i o n in a d j u s t e d gross income. taxes. F r o m this income, earners paid $86.6 billion in T h u s , the t a s k w a s to e s t i m a t e the p r o p o r t i o n a n d a m o u n t of taxes t h a t w e r e p a i d b y b l a c k and w h i t e e a r n e r s , these separately. T h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f the M i l l e r - H e r r i o t m e t h o d p r o d u c e d the following d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e t u r n s in 1 9 6 9 . A d j u s t e d Gross Income Less than $3,000 $3,000 - 6,000 - Percentage Distribution of R e t u r n s 9/ ON te hg er ro e sR a caensd Whites 41 24 27 17 $6,000 - 10,000 20 23 $10,000 - 15,000 over 15,000 9 5 20 14 W h e n t h e s e p e r c e n t a g e s a r e a p p l i e d to the a c t u a l returns r e p o r t e d b y the I R S , the e s t i m a t e s of taxes paid b y b l a c k s a n d w h i t e s separately are obtained. T h e fact t h a t N e g r o e s a n d o t h e r races r e c e i v e d a b o u t 6 . 8 per c e n t o f the a d j u s t e d g r o s s i n c o m e a n d p a i d a b o u t 5 . 4 p e r c e n t of the F e d e r a l i n c o m e t a x e s in 1969 s h o u l d n o t be s u r p r i s i n g . The r e a s o n is that b l a c k s h a v e a l o w e r of p e r s o n s in the u p p e r i n c o m e r a n g e s . percentage The special Census calculations show t h a t , for the income m e a s u r e u s e d for tax p u r p o s e s , 4 1 p e r 8/ 9/ U . S . I n t e r n a l R e v e n u e S e r v i c e , S t a t i s t i c s of I n c o m e Individual Tax Returns. T o t a l s d o n o t a d d to 100 b e c a u s e of r o u n d i n g . 1969, -25c e n t of r e t u r n s f i l e d b y N e g r o e s and o t h e r races w e r e in the i n c o m e c a t e g o r y , c o m p a r e d to 2 7 per c e n t for w h i t e s . lowest I n the u p p e r i n c o m e b r a c k e t s , 14 p e r c e n t of the b l a c k r e t u r n s f e l l in the $10,000 or m o r e c l a s s , w h i l e there w e r e 34 p e r c e n t of the w h i t e returns in this r a n g e . applied T h u s , w h e n the p r o g r e s s i v e tax r a t e s a r e to e a c h g r o u p , the w h i t e s p a i d p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y more.—^ F i n a l l y , these e s t i m a t e s r e p r e s e n t o n l y o n e t a x . Although the F e d e r a l p e r s o n a l i n c o m e tax is the l a r g e s t s i n g l e r e v e n u e i t is a l s o a m o n g the m o s t p r o g r e s s i v e of t a x e s . State and local s a l e s taxes a n d p r o p e r t y taxes tend to h i t the l o w e r i n c o m e p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y m o r e than the h i g h e r i n c o m e g r o u p s . source, groups F o r the y e a r 1 9 6 9 , 36 p e r c e n t of a l l g o v e r n m e n t r e v e n u e w a s f r o m S t a t e a n d taxation. local M o r e o v e r , S o c i a l S e c u r i t y taxes p r o b a b l y h i t b l a c k f a m i l i e s m u c h h a r d e r than w h i t e f a m i l i e s . several considerations: This is s u g g e s t e d b l a c k incomes a r e l o w e r , a n d the r a t e s a r e h i g h e r for b l a c k f a m i l i e s . by participation This means that m i n o r i t y have more multiple earners than white families. Combined with f a c t t h a t S o c i a l S e c u r i t y taxes h a v e a n income c u t - o f f groups the point, the f a m i l i e s o f l o w - e a r n i n g m u l t i p l e e a r n e r s w i l l h a v e to p a y m o r e single 10/ earners, A g a i n , it m u s t b e r e m e m b e r e d that these a r e e s t i m a t e s a n d s u b j e c t to e r r o r . In the case of the p e r c e n t a g e o f r e t u r n s in the i n c o m e r a n g e s , w e m a y e r r o r on the low s i d e r a t h e r than o n the h i g h i n c o m e s i d e b e c a u s e a l l p e r s o n s r e p o r t i n g m o n e y i n c o m e of $ 1 or m o r e a r e i n c l u d e d in the C e n s u s s a m p l e . Some of t h e s e a r e t a k e n o u t w h e n f i n d i n g a d j u s t e d g r o s s i n c o m e but probably not all. than -26C o n s e q u e n t l y , w h e n other taxes are combined w i t h i n c o m e t a x e s , the gap b e t w e e n i n c o m e r e c e i v e d a n d F e d e r a l taxes p a i d b y b l a c k s narrowed (6.8 p e r c e n t v s . 5.4 p e r c e n t ) is Federal income probably considerably. The E c o n o m i c O u t l o o k for B l a c k s G i v e n t h e s e r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t s a f f e c t i n g the economic s i t u a t i o n o f b l a c k s , the q u e s t i o n n a t u r a l l y a r i s e s a b o u t p r o s p e c t s in the f u t u r e . their The general economic outlook as contained in the E c o n o m i c R e p o r t of the C o u n c i l of E c o n o m i c A d v i s e r s and s u p p o r t e d b y the c o n s e n s u s of p r i v a t e f o r e c a s t e r s is for a n acceleration of r e a l e c o n o m i c g r o w t h in 1972 to s o m e w h e r e in the n e i g h b o r h o o d of 6 p e r c e n t , c o m p a r e d to the 2.7 p e r c e n t r a t e of g r o w t h in 1 9 7 1 . achieved In p a r t i c u l a r , the e x p e c t e d s t r e n g t h e n i n g o f a c t i v i t y the m a n u f a c t u r i n g in s e c t o r (in w h i c h s u c h a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of b l a c k m e n h a v e f o u n d j o b s ) is o f s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t . T h u s , the q u e s t i o n w h i c h I w i s h to a d d r e s s m y s e l f at this p o i n t is this: How will o u t l o o k for the n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y a s a w h o l e a f f e c t the b l a c k to this community? It s e e m s f a i r l y c e r t a i n t h a t a r i s e in m a n u f a c t u r i n g activity will increase black employment and income. H o w e v e r , how l a r g e the i m p r o v e m e n t m i g h t b e c a n n o t b e e s t i m a t e d . O n the b a s i s of p r e s s r e p o r t s — a s w e l l as i n f o r m a l s o u n d i n g s a m o n g one g e t s the i m p r e s s i o n t h a t m a n y m a n u f a c t u r i n g s l o w l y in e x p a n d i n g their p a y r o l l s . businessmen-- firms are still moving Among other factors, a strong d e s i r e to c o n t r o l costs b y m e e t i n g i n c r e a s e d o u t p u t d e m a n d s h i g h e r p r o d u c t i v i t y r a t h e r than h i g h e r e m p l o y m e n t — a t present—appears are growing. to b e m o d e r a t i n g through l e a s t for the the pace a t w h i c h f a c t o r y jobs -27I h a v e b e e n p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e r e s t e d in t r y i n g to g a u g e the p r o s p e c t s for b l a c k s . In g e n e r a l , from n u m e r o u s conversations I h a v e h a d w i t h b u s i n e s s m e n , I get the i m p r e s s i o n that the e n v i r o n m e n t in i n d u s t r y t o d a y is m u c h m o r e h o s p i t a b l e toward h i r i n g a n d u p g r a d i n g of b l a c k s than it w a s e v e n a few y e a r s the ago. A t the s a m e t i m e , I a l s o g e t the f e e l i n g t h a t , a l t h o u g h m a n y of the l e a d e r s in i n d u s t r y a r e v e r y c o n s c i o u s of the n e e d to p r o m o t e equal e m p l o y m e n t o p p o r t u n i t y b y i n c r e a s i n g their p e r c e n t a g e of b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t , in m a n y c a s e s , the r e h i r i n g of w o r k e r s (because of trade u n i o n a g r e e m e n t s ) w o u l d h a v e to b e d o n e o n a s e n i o r i t y b a s i s w h i c h w o u l d g e n e r a l l y n o t favor b l a c k s or o t h e r m i n o r i t y that a r e s t i l l r e l a t i v e n e w c o m e r s in some groups sectors. In s o m e i n d u s t r i e s in w h i c h b l a c k s a r e h e a v i l y concentrated, there w a s a d r o p in the p e r c e n t a g e of m i n o r i t y e m p l o y m e n t in 1 9 7 1 . T h i s s e e m s to h a v e o c c u r r e d d e s p i t e the fact t h a t m a n y o f the leading c o m p a n i e s in s o m e o f these i n d u s t r i e s a r e k n o w n to h a v e s t r o n g to i n c r e a s e the p e r c e n t a g e of m i n o r i t y w o r k e r s . This was true in the b a s i c d u r a b l e g o o d s m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s as mentioned e a r l i e r , blacks are heavily represented. particularly where, A review o f the s t a t i s t i c s in T a b l e 4 p r o v i d e d b y the B u r e a u of L a b o r s h o w s t h a t the p e r c e n t a g e o f e m p l o y m e n t a c c o u n t e d Statistics for b y b l a c k s in the b a s i c d u r a b l e g o o d s i n d u s t r i e s d e c l i n e d in b o t h 1970 a n d Similar figures programs 1971. ( a l t h o u g h n o t i n c l u d e d in the t a b l e ) s h o w that the r a t i o h a d r i s e n s t e a d i l y since 1962 (the f i r s t y e a r d a t a w e r e available). In c o n t r a s t , the p e r c e n t a g e of e m p l o y m e n t a c c o u n t e d for -28by blacks in the n o n d u r a b l e goods i n d u s t r i e s c o n t i n u e d to o n a v e r a g e in 1970 b u t d e c l i n e d in 1 9 7 1 . nondurable industries increase The b e t t e r s h o w i n g in the in 1970 w a s p a r t i a l l y a r e s u l t of the t h a t the n o n d u r a b l e i n d u s t r i e s c o n t i n u e d to show a s l i g h t fact increase in t o t a l e m p l o y m e n t in 1 9 7 0 , in c o n t r a s t to the d e c l i n e in e m p l o y m e n t l e v e l s in the d u r a b l e g o o d s i n d u s t r i e s . goods industries I n a d d i t i o n , some nondurable (notably f o o d s , t e x t i l e s , a n d a p p a r e l ) h a v e b e e n experiencing f a i r l y r a p i d i n c r e a s e s in t h e i r p r o p o r t i o n of m i n o r i t y employment. H o w e v e r , this p a t t e r n c o n c e a l s the f a c t that s o m e of those industries (such as t e x t i l e s a n d a p p a r e l w h i c h m a i n t a i n e d t h e i r b l a c k p e r c e n t a g e s in the r e c e n t p e r i o d ) h a v e b e e n d e c l i n i n g industries in r e l a t i o n to the e c o n o m y a s a w h o l e . Thus, although the p r o p o r t i o n of m i n o r i t y w o r k e r s e m p l o y e d b y t h e m h a s h e l d u p q u i t e w e l l , the a c t u a l n u m b e r o f b l a c k s e m p l o y e d may not expand in these industries rapidly. B u t o n the w h o l e , to the e x t e n t t h a t m a n u f a c t u r i n g do participate in the e c o n o m i c g r o w t h e x p e c t e d industries t h i s y e a r , the outcome w i l l have a positive impact on b l a c k e m p l o y m e n t . Continued g a i n s in e m p l o y m e n t in the s e r v i c e a n d t r a d e i n d u s t r i e s a s w e l l a s b y S t a t e a n d l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s w i l l a l s o a d d to a n i m p r o v e m e n t black employment. B u t , a g a i n , this e x p a n s i o n m i g h t n o t b e in large e n o u g h to e n a b l e the b l a c k c o m m u n i t y to r e s u m e the s t r i d e s in e m p l o y m e n t a n d i n c o m e g a i n s they w e r e b e g i n n i n g to a c h i e v e in the s e c o n d o f the 1 1960 s. half -29In a d d i t i o n , a l t h o u g h e m p l o y m e n t of b l a c k s c a n b e to r e s u m e a n u p w a r d t r e n d in 1 9 7 2 , it can a l s o b e e x p e c t e d expected that the b l a c k l a b o r force w i l l g r o w m o r e r a p i d l y this y e a r than last. B e s i d e s the l o n g e r - t e r m g r o w t h in the labor force b a s e d on the r a p i d g r o w t h o f t h e y o u n g a g e g r o u p s , the d e c l i n i n g r a t e for b l a c k s participation ( p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i d e n t in the s e c o n d h a l f o f c a n b e e x p e c t e d to s h o w a r e t u r n to m o r e n o r m a l l o n g - t e r m if e m p l o y m e n t p r o s p e c t s i m p r o v e . Thus, even with a more 1971) trends rapid g r o w t h in e m p l o y m e n t , o v e r the s h o r t - t e r m , r i s e s in t h e c i v i l i a n f o r c e could w e l l r e s u l t in c o n t i n u e d h i g h l e v e l s o f labor unemployment a n d h i g h u n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e s for b l a c k s . A s m e n t i o n e d a b o v e , the u n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e for b l a c k s h a s t r a d i t i o n a l l y b e e n a b o u t twice as h i g h as t h a t for w h i t e s . in a few y e a r s Only (such a s 1 9 6 5 , 1970 and 1 9 7 1 - - n e i t h e r o f w h i c h w a s a y e a r of e s p e c i a l l y v i g o r o u s e c o n o m i c g r o w t h ) h a s the u n e m p l o y m e n t r a t i o b e e n less than 2 to 1 . It w i l l b e black-white recalled t h a t the g e n e r a l o u t l o o k for the e c o n o m y in 1972 p r e s e n t e d b y the C o u n c i l of E c o n o m i c A d v i s e r s does n o t e x p e c t the t o t a l r a t e to b e b e l o w 5 p e r c e n t b y y e a r - e n d . unemployment The u n e m p l o y m e n t rate for b l a c k s w a s 10.6 p e r c e n t in J a n u a r y — c o m p a r e d w i t h 5 . 3 p e r for w h i t e s - - a r a t i o of 2 to 1. cent So g i v e n the o u t l o o k for the e c o n o m y a s a w h o l e in 1 9 7 2 , t h e r e a p p e a r s to be n o b a s i s for e x p e c t i n g blacks to i m p r o v e t h e i r r e l a t i v e u n e m p l o y m e n t p o s i t i o n in the c o u r s e of this year. -30In m y j u d g m e n t , the s i n g l e m o s t i m p o r t a n t contribution t h a t c a n b e m a d e this y e a r to e n a b l e b l a c k s to m a k e further economic progress expansion, is a t least to a s s u r e the s i z a b l e p r o j e c t e d b y the C E A , in the n a t i o n a l e c o n o m y in 1 9 7 2 w h i l e a t the s a m e t i m e p r e s s i n g on w i t h the c a m p a i g n to c h e c k inflation. TABLE I Employed Persons by Major Occupation Group and (Numbers in thousands) Total Employment: 1971 Negro and Other Races Total Employment: 1970 Negro and Other Races Total Employment: 1960 Negro and Other Races Per cent of total Number Number Total Percentage Distribution Per cent of total Number Total Percentage Number Distribution Per cent of total Nuaber Occupation Number Total Percentage Distribution T o t a l Employed 65,778 100,.0 6,,927 100,.0 10..5 78,,627 100..0 8,,445 100.,0 10..7 79,,120 100.,0 8,,403 100.,0 W h i t e Collar W o r k e r s Professional & Technical Managers, Officials, & Prop. Clerical W o r k e r s Sales W o r k e r s 28,522 7,469 7,067 9,762 4,224 43..3 11..4 10,.7 14,.8 6 .4 1,,113 331 178 503 101 16,.1 4,.7 2,.6 7,.3 1,.5 3..9 4..4 2..5 5..2 2..4 37,,997 11.,140 8,,289 13,,714 4,,854 48..3 14.,2 10..5 17.,4 6,.2 2,,356 766 297 1,,113 180 27..9 9..1 3..5 13..2 2,.1 6..2 6..9 3..6 8.,1 3,.7 38,,252 11,,070 8 ;,675 13,,440 5 ,066 48..3 14,.0 11..0 17,.0 6,.4 2,,444 756 342 1,,154 191 29.,1 9..0 4,.1 13..7 2..3 6.4 6.8 3.9 8.6 3.8 Blue Collar Workers Craftsmen & Foremen Operatives Nonfara Laborers 24,057 8,554 11,950 3,553 36 .6 13.,0 18..2 5.,4 2,,780 415 1,,414 951 40,.1 6,.0 20,.4 13,.7 11,.6 4..8 11,.8 26,.8 27,,791 10,,158 13,,909 3,,724 35..3 12,.9 17,.7 4,.7 3,,561 692 2,,004 866 42,.2 8,.2 23,.7 10,.3 12..8 6..8 14..4 23.. 2 27,,184 10 ,178 12,,983 4 ,022 34,.4 12,.9 16,.4 5..1 3 ,353 663 1 ,821 868 39..9 7,.9 21,.7 10,.3 12.3 6.5 14.0 21.6 Service W o r k e r s Private Household Other Service Workers 8.023 1,973 6.050 12.. 2 3.,0 9,.2 982 1,,214 31 J 14,.2 17,.5 27..4 49,.8 20., 1 9,,712 1,,558 8,,154 12,.4 2..0 10,.4 2,,199 652 1,,546 26,.0 7,.7 18..3 22..6 41,,8 19,.0 10 ,676 1 ,486 9 ,189 13,. 5 1,.9 11,.6 2 ,321 615 1 ,706 27,.6 7 .3 20,.3 21.7 41.4 18.6 Farm W o r k e r s Farmers & Farm M a n a g e r s Farm Laborers & Foremen 5,176 2,776 2.400 7..9 4,.2 3,.7 841 219 622 12..1 3,.2 8,.9 16..2 7,.9 25..9 3,,126 1,,753 1,,373 4..0 2,.2 1,.8 328 87 241 3..9 1,.0 2 .9 • 10.,5 5..0 17.,6 3,,008 1 ,666 1 ,342 3,.8 2,.1 1,.7 285 63 222 3,.4 0,.7 2,.6 9.5 3.8 16.5 Source: Number 2 ,196 Percentage Distribution Data for 1960 and 1970, U . S . Department of L a b o r , Manpower Report of the P r e s i d e n t , A p r i l , 1971, Tables A-9 and A - 1 0 , p . p . 2 1 5 - 7 . Data for 1 9 7 1 , Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s , U . S . D e p a r t m e n t of L a b o r . Number Percentage Distribution Number Percentage Distribution 10. fc TABLE 2 1970 L e v e l s a n d P e r c e n t a g e D i s t r i b u t i o n of M a n u f a c t u r i n g E m p l o y m e n t b y RaceJL/ Percentage a NP ee gr r oc e nas t 2/ Total— ?/ Negro^/ 28,882 2 ,965 10.3 Total manufacturing 14,533 Durable goods 9,043 Ordnance and accessories 183 Lumber and wood products 321 Furniture and fixtures 270 S t o n e , c l a y and g l a s s p r o d u c t s 460 Primary metal industries 1,139 Fabricated metal products 913 1,560 Nonelectrical machinery 1,822 Electrical machinery Transportation equipment 1,767 Instruments and related prod. 373 Miscellaneous manufacturing 235 Nondurable goods 5,490 Food and kindred products 1,086 Tobacco manufactures 69 Textile mill products 817 Apparel & other textile prod. 678 P a p e r and a l l i e d p r o d u c t s 566 P r i n t i n g and p u b l i s h i n g 579 Chemicals and allied products 933 180 P e t r o l e u m and coal products Rubber & plastic products 374 L e a t h e r and l e a t h e r p r o d u c t s 208 1,445 872 16 44 36 46 151 92 101 148 194 21 23 573 142 16 112 73 54 37 80 12 35 12 9.9 9.6 8.7 13.7 13.3 10.0 13.2 10.1 6.5 8.1 11.0 5.6 9.9 10.4 13.1 23.2 13.7 10.8 9.5 6.4 8•6 6.7 9.4 5.8 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT of t o t a l Distribution of Manufacturing Employment Total Negro 100.0 62.2 1.2 2.2 1.9 3.2 7.8 6.3 10.7 12.5 12.2 2.6 1.6 37.8 7.5 0.5 5.6 4.7 3.9 4.0 6.4 1.2 2.6 1.4 100.0 60.3 1.1 3.0 2.5 3.2 10.4 6.4 7.0 10.2 13.4 1.4 1.6 39.7 9.8 1.1 7.8 5.0 3.7 2.6 5.5 0.8 2.4 0.8 1/ S o u r c e : U n i t e d S t a t e s E q u a l E m p l o y m e n t O p p o r t u n i t y C o m m i s s i o n , R e p o r t E E O - 1 . T h e s e d a t a are c o l l e c t e d a n n u a l l y u n d e r T i t l e V I I of the C i v i l R i g h t s A c t of 1 9 6 4 . In m o s t c a s e s , r e p o r t s are r e c e i v e d from c o m p a n i e s w i t h 100 or m o r e p e r m a n e n t e m p l o y e e s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , the c o v e r a g e v a r i e s s u b s t a n t i a l l y f r o m i n d u s t r y to i n d u s t r y , d e p e n d i n g o n the p r e v a l e n c e of s m a l l f i r m s . 2/ T h o u s a n d s of p e r s o n s . TABLE 3 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYED PERSONS BY INDUSTRY" 1968 Negro and other TOTAL TOTAL - NUMBER Total - per cent Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing Durable goods Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing Nondurable goods Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products Transportation and Public Utilities Trade Wholesale Retail Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Services Government Federal State and Local 75 ,920?/ 100.0 5.0 0.7 6.1 27.5 16.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.9 2.6 3.2 0.7 0.6 11.2 2.4 0.1 1.4 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.7 0.5 6.7 18.6 3.4 15.3 4.8 19.0 11.4 3.0 8.4 8,169 100.0 5.4 0.2 5.5 24.7 14.4 1.8 0.6 0.9 2.2 1.8 1.2 1.8 3.3 0.3 0.6 10.3 2.7 0.3 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 5.6 13.5 2.4 11.0 2.6 29.6 12.8 4.3 8.5 1969 Negro and TOTAL other 77,902 100.0 4.6 0.7 6.2 27.3 16.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.6 3.2 0.6 0.6 11.0 2.3 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 6.7 18.6 3.4 15.2 4.8 19.4 11.5 3.0 8.5 8,384 100.0 4.6 0.2 5.5 25.6 15.2 1.6 0.6 0.9 2.4 1.8 1.5 2.0 3.5 0.3 ! 0 .6 10.5 2.7 0.3 1.5 2.0 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 5.9 13.1 2.4 10.8 2.8 28.7 13.4 4.4 9.0 1970 Negro and other TOTAL 78,627 100.0 4.4 0.6 6.1 26.4 15.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.9 2.6 2.9 0.6 0.6 10.8 2.2 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 6.8 19.1 3.4 15.7 5.0 19.6 11.8 2.9 8.9 8,445 100.0 4.4 0.2 5.2 25.0 14.2 1.6 0.6 0.8 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.9 3.3 0.3 0.5 10.7 2.7 0.3 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 6.4 13.3 2.3 11.0 3.2 28.2 14.1 4.6 9.4 l! Source - Derived from unpublished Household data from the Current Population survey provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics - totals may not add due to rounding. 2_/ Thousands of persons. 1971 Negro and other TOTAL 79,120 100.0 4.3 0.7 6.3 24.7 14.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.7 2.5 2.4 2.6 0.5 0.9 10.3 2.1 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.7 0.4 6.7 20.1 3.8 16.3 5.2 20.1 11.8 2.8 9.0 8,403 100.0 3.9 0.2 5.5 23.0 12.9 1.5 0.6 0.9 2.1 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.9 0.3 0.7 10.1 2.5 ( 0.3 1.4 2.1 0.7 0.8 1.2 0,3 0.6 0.3 6.6 14.2 2.4 11.8 3.6 29.1 13.9 4.6 9.3 TABLE 4 Private Nonagricultural Employment Private Nonagricultural Employ men t~ December December December December 1968 1969 1970 19711/ TOTAL Mining Contract construction Manufacturing Durable goods Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical equipment Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing Nondurable goods Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products Rubber and plastic products Leather and leather products Transportation and Public utilities Wholesale and retail trade Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance and real estate Services 69,039 616 3,386 20,010 11,769 342 613 479 654 1,321 1,419 1,987 1,982 2,058 471 443 8,241 1,790 83 1,006 1,410 702 1,079 1,049 188 581 353 4,355 14,255 3,664 10,591 3,463 10,925 70,912 626 3,474 20,068 11,777 283 599 478 657 1,383 1,440 2,062 1,952 1,998 476 449 8,291 1,792 81 1,002 1,400 717 1,110 1,064 190 601 334 4,474 14,844 3,792 11,052 3,637 11,456 70,313 623 3,302 18,796 10,738 212 560 450 627 1,260 1,333 1,854 1,816 1,773 438 415 8,058 1,763 79 961 1,360 695 1,099 1,033 191 566 311 4,450 14,952 3832 11,120 3,731 11,776 72,030 604 3,160 18,602 10,579 186 593 478 627 1,172 1,346 1,788 1,804 1,742 435 410 8,023 1,740 74 977 1,354 694 1,090 1,001 188 599 307 4,468 16,100 3,911 12,189 3,832 12,023 Per cent Change 1968196919701969 1970 1971 +2.7 +1.6 +2.6 +0.3 +0.1 -17.3 -2.3 -0.2 +0.4 +4.7 +1.5 +3.8 -1.5 -2.9 +1.1 +1.4 +0.6 +0.1 -2.4 -0.4 -0.7 +2.1 +2.9 +1.4 +1.1 +3.4 -5.4 +2.7 +4.1 +3.5 +4.4 +5.0 +4.9 -0.8 -0.5 -5.0 -6.3 -8.8 -25.1 -6.5 -5.9 -4.6 -8.9 -7.4 -10.1 -7.0 -11.3 -8.0 -7.6 -2.8 -1.6 -2.4 -4.1 -2.8 -0.5 -1.0 -2.9 +0.5 -5.8 -6.9 -0.5 +0.7 +1.0 +0.6 +2.6 +2.8 +2 .4 -3 .0 -4 .3 -1 .0 -1 .5 -12 .3 +5 .9 +6 .2 0 .0 -7 .0 +1 .0 -3 .6 -0 .7 -1 .8 -0 .7 -1 .2 -0 .4 -1 .3 -6 .6 + 1 .7 -0 .4 -0,.2 -0, .8 -3 .1 -1 .6 +5..8 -1,.3 +0,.4 +7,.7 +2,.1 +9,• 6 +2,.7 +2,.1 Negro and others as a Percentage of total employment in each industry!/ 1968 1969 1970 10.7 3.0 9.8 9.7 9.6 n .a. 21.9 10.7 11.3 14.1 8.5 4.4 7.7 11.0 5.0 9.1 9.9 12.2 26.3 9.5 12.8 7.9 6.6 8.2 7.4 8.7 8.5 9.1 7.8 7.7 7.8 5.8 16.7 10.8 10.7 3.8 3.7 9.1 9.6 10.1 10,2 9.8 10.1 n. a. n .a, 21.5 ' 22.0 11.3 11.4 10.6 10.9 14.4 15.3 8.4 8.6 5.1 5.4 8.0 8.1 11.8 12.1 4.6 4.5 7.7 7.9 10.2 10.7 13.0 12.7 27.5 28.8 13.8 11.7 13.0 12.2 8.2 8.3 5,6 6.1 8.9 9.1 6.4 7.8 7.9 10.7 9.0 9.2 10.2 9.4 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.5 6,8 6.3 15.4 15.9 1/ Source-Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment data for employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, seasonally adjusted, thousands of persons. c„™oV 2/ Source-Derived from unpublished Bureau of Labor Statistics Household data from the Current Population Survey. Because of differences in the method of data collection and the definitions of categories, these data are not public ftrictly comparable with the Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment data, in particular, categories include some employment although adjustments have been made where possible. 3/ Preliminary. 1971 10 .7 3 .3 9 .3 9 .9 9 .4 n..a. 20 .0 11 .5 11 .9 14 .4 7. 7 4 .7 6 .8 11 .6 5 .2 8 .0 10 .5 12 .4 32 .5 12 .9 13 .2 8 .2 5 .4 8 .7 8 .5 9 .4 9 .5 10,.5 7.5 6,.8 7..7 7,,3 15,,4
@FedFRASER