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61ST CONGRESS \ 2d Semon J f DOCUMENT SENATE \ No. 588 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL IN THE UNITED STATES A STATISTICAL STUDY BY EDWIN WALTER KEMMEKER P R O F E S S O R OP ECONOMICS A N D F I N A N C E I N CORNELL U N I V E R S I T Y WASHINGTON GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. NELSON W. ALDRICH, Rhode Island, EDWARD B . VREELAND, New York, J U L I U S C. B U R R O W S , Michigan. Chairman. Vice-Chairman. J O H N W. W E E K S , Massachusetts. E U G E N E H A L E , Maine. R O B E R T W. B O N Y N G E , Colorado. P H I L A N D E R C. K N O X , Pennsylvania. SYLVESTER C. SMITH, California. T H E O D O R E E . B U R T O N , Ohio. L E M U E L P . PADGETT, Tennessee. H E N R Y M. T E L L E R , Colorado. G E O R G E F . B U R G E S S , Texas. H E R N A N D O D . M O N E Y , Mississippi. A R S E N E P . P U J O , Louisiana. J O S E P H W. B A I L E Y , Texas. A R T H U R B . SHELTON, . A. PIATT ANDREW, Special Assistant to Commission. Secretary. * T A B L E OF CONTENTS. Page. PREFATORY NOTE 11 LIST OF CHARTS 7-9 L I S T OF PRINCIPAL T A B L E S IN T E X T 4 L I S T OF T A B L E S IN A P P E N D I X CHAPTER I.—INTRODUCTION 5-6 , 13 Purpose and scope of report—Statistical method employed; its merits and defects—Principal topics to be considered. CHAPTER II.—SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE D E M A N D FOR M O N E Y E D CAPITAL IN N E W Y O R K CITY 15 Call interest rates, 1890-1908—Six principal seasonal movements and one minor seasonal movement—Interest rates on sixty to ninety day, two-name, prime commercial paper, 1890-1908—Principal seasonal movements—Interest rates on four-month time paper, 1890-1908—Five principal seasonal movements and one minor movement—Evidence afforded by figures of weekly statement of New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908—Five principal seasonal movements—Deficits in legal reserves, 1880-1907—Relation of seasonal variations in interest rates to those of percentages of reserves to deposits— Conclusions, with brief discussion of causes. CHAPTER I I I . — S E A S O N A L VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEYED CAPITAL IN CERTAIN REPRESENTATIVE CITIES 30 Chicago—Evidence afforded by weekly figures of bank statement of Chicago clearing-house banks, 1899-1908—Five principal seasonal movements— St. Louis—Evidence afforded by weekly figures of bank statement of St. Louis clearing-house banks, 1899-1908—Principal seasonal movements—New Orleans—Evidence afforded by weekly figures of bank statement of New Orleans clearing-house banks, 1899-1908—Five principal seasonal movements—San Francisco—Evidence afforded by weekly figures of bank statement of San Francisco clearing-house banks, 1907 and 1908—Six principal seasonal movements—Rediscounts. CHAPTER I V . — S E A S O N A L VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR M O N E Y IN D I F F E R E N T SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY 52 Meaning of expression "relative demand for money."—Criteria, domestic exchange rates, currency shipments, and subtreasury transfers—Order of treatment—Circular of inquiry sent to banks by National Monetary Commission through office of Comptroller of the Currency—Seasonal variations in the currency receipts and shipments of the New England group of States, 1905-1908—Seasonal variations in exchange rates in Chicago on New York, 1899-1908, and in currency movements to and from Chicago, 1905-1908—Seasonal variations in exchange rates in St. Louis on New York, 1899-1908, and in currency movements to and from St. Louis, 1905-1908—Currency shipments between the Middle Western States and other geographic sections, 19051908—Seasonal variations in exchange rates in New Orleans on New York, 1899-1908—Currency shipments between the Southern States and other geographic sections, 1905-1908—Seasonal variations in exchange rates in San Francisco on New York, 1901-1908, and currency movements to and from San Francisco, 1906-1908—Currency receipts and shipments of New York City banks, 1899-1908—Seasonal variations in the transfers of cash by the United States subtreasury in New York to other cities, 1899-1909—Seasonal demand for various kinds and denominations of money. CHAPTER V.—SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR M O N E Y , AS EVIDENCED BY F O R E I G N EXCHANGE R A T E S 136 Close relationship between American and foreign money markets—Foreign exchange rates as criteria of seasonal fluctuations in the relative demand for money—Sterling exchange, 1890-1908, principal seasonal movements—Influence of finance bills—Paris exchange, 1899-1908, principal seasonal movements— Berlin exchange, 1899-1908, principal seasonal movements. CHAPTER VI.—SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE M O N E Y SUPPLY 145 Meaning of terms "presumably elastic money" and "presumably inelastic money"—Seasonal variations in the circulation of gold and gold certificates, 1890-1908—Seasonal variations in the value of gold bullion deposited at the United States mints and assay offices, 1890-1908—Seasonal variations in the net importation and net exportation of gold, 1890-1908—Seasonal variations in the circulation of national bank notes, 1890-1908, principal movements—Seasonal variations in the circulation of "presumably inelastic money," 1890-1908, principal movements—Seasonal variations in the total money in circulation, 1890-1908, principal movements—Seasonal variations in the net balance of federal public moneys, 1890-1908—The net balance in treasury offices—The net balance in depositary banks. CHAPTER V I I . — S E A S O N A L VARIATIONS IN THE CIRCULATION OF DEPOSIT CURRENCY 159 Large proportion of country's business effected by means of deposit currency—Bank clearings the best criteria of the circulation of deposit currency— Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency in New York City, 1890-1908, principal movements—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency in Chicago, 1890-1908, principal movements—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency in St. Louis, 1890-1908, principal movements—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency in New Orleans, 1890-1908, principal movements—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency in San Francisco, 1890-1908, principal movements—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency in Continental United States, 1890-1908, principal movements—Conclusion. CHAPTER V I I I . — S O M E ECONOMIC INFLUENCES OF SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR M O N E Y AND CAPITAL 173 Statement of theory of relation of seasonal variations in the demand for money to prices—The selection of 27 railroad bonds as a basis of study—Character of quotations used—List of bonds selected, and average weekly prices of each for periods ranging from nine to nineteen years—Seasonal composite for all 27 bonds—Principal seasonal movements, their extent and regularity—Explanations—Seasonal variations in the number of commercial failures, 1890-1908, Bradstreet figures, Dun figures—Seasons in which commercial panics tend to occur. CHAPTER IX.—SUMMARY 223 Scope and method—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for loanable capital, New York, Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans, and San Francisco— Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in the different geographic sections of the country as evidenced by domestic exchange rates and currency movements—Seasonal variations in foreign exchange rates—Seasonal variations in the amount of different kinds of money in circulation—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency—Seasonal variations in bond prices, and commercial failures—Seasonal tendencies with reference to commercial panics. LIST OF BOOKS AND ARTICLES CITED IN R E P O R T 232 APPENDICES.—A list of the tables comprising the Appendices is given on pages 5 and 6. 3 LIST OF P R I N C I P A L TABLES IE" TEXT. Page. TABLE I.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital, as evidenced b y interest rates, call loans, New York Stock Exchange—Average figures, 1890-1908 II.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital, as evidenced b y interest rates on sixty to ninety day, twoname, prime commercial paper, New York City—Average figures, 1890-1908 III.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital, as evidenced b y interest rates, four months' time paper, New York City—Average figures, 1890-1908 IV.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of New York City clearing-house banks— Average figures, 1890-1908 V.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits of the Chicago clearing-house banks— Average figures, 1899-1908 VI.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and t h e ratio of reserves to deposits of the St. Louis clearing-house banks—Average figures, 1899-1908 VII.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and t h e ratio of reserves to deposits of the New Orleans clearing-house banks—Average figures, 1899-1908 VIII.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and t h e ratio of reserves to deposits of the clearing-house banks of San Francisco—Average figures for the years 1907 and 1908 IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of t h e United States and to and from certain cities X.-^Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans, and San Francisco, as evidenced b y exchange rates on New York City—Average figures, 1899-1908 XI.—Seasonal variations in the demand for money in New York City relative to the demand in the interior, as evidenced b y the net interior movement of cash into and out of the banks of the city—Average figures for the ten years, 1899-1908 XII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in certain cities, as evidenced b y transfers of cash to them from New York b y the Treasury of the United States—Average figures for the period 1899-1909 X I I I (a).—Seasonal receipts and local demand for various kinds and denominations of money—Answers b y clearing-house associations and banks to certain questions X I I I (6).—Seasonal shipments of money and demand for shipment for various kinds and denominations of money—Answers b y clearinghouse associations and banks to certain questions XIV.—Seasonal variations in t h e relative demand for money, as evidenced b y average weekly exchange rates in New York City on certain foreign cities XV.—Seasonal variations in the amounts of various kinds of money in circulation in the United States—Average figures, 1890-1908. XVI.—Seasonal variations in t h e value of gold bullion deposited at the United States mints and assay offices—Average figures for t h e period 1890-1908 XVII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money, as evidenced b y monthly net imports and net exports of gold—Figures for nineteen-year period 1890-1908 XVIII.—Seasonal variations in t h e relative demand for money, as evidenced b y weekly net imports and net exports of gold at New York City—Figures for ten-year period 1899-1908 XIX.—Seasonal variations in t h e net balance of public moneys in Treasury offices of the United States and in federal depositary banks—Average figures for the period 1890-1908 XX.—Seasonal variations in t h e weekly clearings of the United States and of certain representative cities—Average figures, 18901908 XXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money, as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years ending 1908—Average figures for individual bonds XXII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money, as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years ending 1908—Average figures for all bonds XXIII.—Seasonal variations in t h e number of commercial failures in the United States—Average figures for t h e period 1890-1908 4 1& 18 20 23 31 35 ^ 41 46 56 93 125 131 134 135 137 146 146 149 149 155 161 175 182 219 LIST OF TABLES I N A P P E N D I C E S . Appendix A.—Interest Rates in New York City, 1890-1908. TABLE 1.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced b y interest rates, call loans, New York Stock Exchange, 1890-1908 TABLE 2.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced b y interest rates, sixty to ninety day, two-name, prime, commercial paper, 1890-1908 TABLE 3.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced b y interest rates, four months' time paper, 1890-1908 Page. 235 237 239 Appendix B.—New York City Clearing-House Banks, 1890-1908. TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908 241 Appendix C.—Chicago Clearing-House Banks, 1899-1908. TABLE 5.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits of the Chicago clearing-house banks, 1899-1908 260 Appendix D.-—St. Louis Clearing-House Banks, 1899-1908. TABLE 6.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits of the St. Louis clearing-house banks, 1899-1908 265 Appendix E.—New Orleans Clearing-House Banks, 1899-1908. TABLE 7.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits of the New Orleans clearinghouse banks, 1899-1908 270 Appendix F.—San Francisco Clearing-House Banks, 1907-1908. TABLE 8.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves and the ratio of reserves to deposits of the clearing-house banks of San Francisco for the years 1907 and 1908 275 Appendix G.—Currency Receipts and Shipments. TABLE 9.—Movements of cash between different States of the United States and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908 TABLE 10.—Seasonal variations in the demand for money in New York City relative to the demand in the interior, as evidenced b y the net interior movement of cash into and out of the banks of the city, 1899-1908 TABLE 11.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in certain cities as evidenced by transfers of cash to them from New York City b y the Treasury of the United States, 1899-1909 Appendix H.—Domestic Exchange Rates, 1899-1908. TABLE 12.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in certain cities as evidenced b y domestic exchange rates on New York City Appendix I.—Foreign Exchange Rates. TABLE 13.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced by exchange rates in New York City on London, 1890-1908 TABLE 14.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced b y exchange rates in New York City on Paris and Berlin, 1899-1908 276 358 361 364 374 378 Appendix J.—Money in Circulation. TABLE 15.—Seasonal variations in the amounts of various kinds of money in circulation in the United States, 1890-1908 381 Appendix K.—Deposits of Gold Bullion. TABLE 16.—Seasonal variations in the value of gold bullion deposited at the United States mints and assay offices for the period 1890-1908 386 Appendix L.—Imports and Exports of Gold. TABLE 17.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced by monthly net imports and net exports of gold, 1890-1908 TABLE 18.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced b y weekly net imports and net exports of gold at New York, 1899-1908 387 389 Appendix M.—United States Treasury Balances. TABLE 19.—Seasonal variations in the net balance of public moneys in Treasury offices of the United States Government and in federal depositary banks, 1890-1908 391 Appendix N.—Deposit Currency. TABLE 20.—Seasonal variations in the weekly clearings of the United States and of certain representative cities, 1890-1908 394 5 6 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. Appendix O.—Bond Prices. TABLE 21.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railroad bonds, adjustment gold fours of 1995, for the period 1896-1908—(Bond 1). TABLE 22.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railroad bonds,general gold fours of 1995, for the period 1897-1908—(Bond 2) TABLE 23.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Baltimore and Ohio Railroad bonds, gold fours of 1948, for the period 1900-1908—(Bond 3) TABLE 24.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Central Pacific Railroad bonds, first refunding gold fours of 1949, for the period 1900-1908—(Bond 4) TABLE 25.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Central Railroad of New Jersey bonds, general gold fives of 1987, for the period 1890-1908—(Bond 5) TABLE 26.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Chesapeake and Ohio Railroad bonds, general gold four-and-a-halfs of 1992, for the period 1893-1908—(Bond 6) TABLE 27.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Chicago, Burlington and Quincy Railroad (Nebraska extension) bonds, fours of 1927, for the period 1890-1908—(Bond 7) TABLE 28.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Chicago, Milwaukee and St. Paul Railroad bonds, general gold fours of 1989, for the period 1890-1908—(Bond 8) TABLE 29.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of the Denver and Rio Grande Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold fours of 1936, for the period 1890-1908—(Bond 9) TABLE 30.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Erie Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold fours, prior lien of 1996, for the period 1898-1908—(Bond 10) TABLE 31.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Hocking Valley Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold four-and-a-halfs of 1999, for the period 1900-1908—(Bond 11) TABLE 32.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Iowa Central Railroad bonds, first gold fives of 1938, for the period 1890-1908—(Bond 12) TABLE 33.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Long Island Railroad bonds, unified gold fours of 1949, for the period 1900-1908—(Bond 13) TABLE 34.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Louisville and Nashville Railroad bonds, unified gold fours of 1940, for the period 1898-1908—(Bond 14) TABLE 35.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Missouri, Kansas and Texas Railroad bonds, first gold fours of 1990, for the period 1891-1908—(Bond 15) TABLE 36.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Missouri Pacific Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold sixes of 1920, for the period 1890-1908—(Bond 16) TABLE 37.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Missouri Pacific, St. Louis, Iron Mountain and Southern Railway bonds, general consolidated gold fives of 1931, for the period 1894-1908— (Bond 17) TABLE 38.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of New York Central and Hudson River Railroad bonds, gold three-and-a-halfs of 1997, for the period 1899-1908—(Bond 18) TABLE 39.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of New York Central and Hudson River (West Shore) Railroad bonds, first fours guaranteed of 2361, for the period 1890-1908—(Bond 19)... TABLE 40.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of New York, Ontario and Western Railroad bonds, refunding first gold fours of 1992, for the period 1893-1908—(Bond 20) TABLE 41.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Norfolk and Western Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold fours of 1996, for the period 1897-1908—(Bond 21) TABLE 42.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Northern Pacific Railroad bonds, prior lien gold fours of 1997, for the period 1897-1908—(Bond 22) TABLE 43.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of St. Louis and San Francisco Railroad bonds, general gold fives of 1931, for the period 1890-1908—(Bond 23) TABLE 44.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of St. Louis Southwestern Railroad bonds, first gold fours of 1989, for the period 1892-1908—(Bond 24) TABLE 45.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Southern Railway bonds, first consolidated fives of 1994, for the period 1895-1908—(Bond 25) TABLE 46.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Union Pacific Railroad bonds, land grant gold fours of 1947, for the period 1899-1908—(Bond 26) TABLE 47.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Wabash Railroad bonds, first gold fives of 1939, for the period 1890-1908—(Bond 27) Appendix P.—Commercial Failures. TABLE 48.—Seasonal variations in the number of commercial failures in the United States, 1890-1908 Page. 413 416 419421 423 428 432 437 442 447 450 452 457 459 462 466 471 475 477 482 486 489 492 497 501 504 506 511 LIST OF OHAETS. Page. CHART I.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced by interest rates, call loans, New York Stock Exchange, 1890-1908 II.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced by interest rates, New York, on sixty to ninety day, two-name, prime commercial paper, 1890-1908 III.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced by interest rates, New York, on four months' time paper, 1890-1908 IV.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, and bank-note circulation of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908 . V.—Seasonal variations in the reserves and ratios of reserves to deposits of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908 VI.—Seasonal variations in the loans and deposits of the Chicago clearing-house banks, 1899-1908 VII.—Seasonal variations in the reserves and ratios of reserves to deposits of the Chicago clearing-house banks, 1899-1908. VIII.—Seasonal variations in the loans and deposits of the St. Louis clearing-house banks, 1899-1908 IX.—Seasonal variations in the reserves and ratios of reserves to deposits of the St. Louis clearing-house banks, 1899-1908. X.—Seasonal variations in the loans and deposits of the New Orleans clearing-house banks, 1899-1908 XI.—Seasonal variations in the reserves and ratios of reserves to deposits of the New Orleans clearing-house banks, 18991908 XII.—Seasonal variations in the loans and deposits of the San Francisco clearing-house banks, 1907 and 1908 XIII.—Seasonal variations in the reserves and ratios of reserves to deposits of the San Francisco clearing-house banks, 1907 and 1908 XIV.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Eastern States as evidenced by receipts of cash from other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XV.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Eastern States as evidenced by shipments of cash to other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XVI.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in New England States as evidenced by receipts of cash from other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XVII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in New England States as evidenced by shipments of cash to other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XVIII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Chicago as evidenced by exchange rates on New York City, 1899-1908 XIX.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Chicago as evidenced by receipts of cash from other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XX.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Chicago as evidenced by shipments of cash to other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XXI.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in St. Louis as evidenced by exchange rates on New York City, 1899-1908 XXII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in St. Louis as evidenced by receipts of cash from other sections of the country, 1905-1908 ,. XXIII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in St. Louis as evidenced by shipments of cash to other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XXIV.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Middle Western States as evidenced by receipts of cash from other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XXV.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Middle Western States as evidenced by shipments of cash to other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XXVI.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in New Orleans as evidenced by exchange rates on New York City, 1899-1908 XXVII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Southern States as evidenced by receipts of cash from other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XXVIII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Southern States as evidenced by shipments of cash to other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XXIX.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in San Francisco as evidenced by exchange rates on New York City, 1901-1908 XXX.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Pacific States as evidenced by receipts of cash from other sections of the country, 1906-1908 XXXI.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Pacific States as evidenced by shipments of cash to other sections of the country, 1906-1908 7 16 19 21 24 25 32 33 36 37 42 43 47 48 88 89 90 91 96 97 98 101 102 103 106 107 112 115 116 119 122 123 8 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. Page. XXXII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in New York City as evidenced b y receipts of cash from other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XXXIII.—Seasonal variations in t h e relative demand for money in New York City as evidenced b y shipments of cash to other sections of the country, 1905-1908 XXXIV.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in New York City as evidenced b y the net interior movement of cash into and out of the banks of the city, 1899-1908 XXXV.—Seasonal variations in the relative demandJor money in certain cities as evidenced b y transfers of cash to them from New York City b y the Treasury of the United States, 1899-1909 XXXVI.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced b y exchange rates in New York City on London, 1890-1908 XXXVII.—Seasonal variations in exchange rates in New York City on London for the periods 1890-1899 and 1900-1908 XXXVIII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced b y exchange rates in New York City on Paris, 1899-1908 XXXIX.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced b y exchange rates in New York City on Berlin, 1899-1908 XL.—Seasonal variations in the amounts of various kinds of money in circulation in the United States, 1890-1908 XLI.—Seasonal variations in t h e value of gold bullion deposited at the United States mints and assay offices, 1890-1908.. XLII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced b y monthly net imports and net exports of gold, 1890-1908 XLIII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced b y weekly n e t imports and net exports of gold at New York, 1899-1908 XLIV.—Seasonal variations in the net balance of public moneys of the United States Government, 1890-1908 XLV.—Seasonal variations in the net balance of public moneys in Treasury offices of the United States Government and in federal depositary banks, 1890-1908 XLVI.—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency as evidenced by weekly clearings in New York, 1890-1908. XLVII.—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency as evidenced b y weekly clearings in Chicago, 1890-1908. XLVIII.—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency as evidenced b y weekly clearings in St. Louis, 1890-1908. XLIX.—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency as evidenced b y weekly clearings in New Orleans, 1890-1908. L.—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency as evidenced b y weekly clearings in San Francisco, 1890-1908 LI.—Seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency as evidenced b y weekly clearings in continental United States, 1890-1908 LII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Atchison, Topeka and Sante Fe Railroad bonds, adjustment gold fours of 1995, 1896-1908 LIU.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Atchison, Topeka and Sante Fe Railroad bonds, general gold fours of 1995, 1897-1908 LIV.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Baltimore and Ohio Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold fours of 1948, 1900-1908 LV.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Central Pacific Railroad bonds, first refunding gold fours of 1949, 1900-1908 LVI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Central Railroad of New Jersey bonds, general gold fives of 1987, 1890-1908 LVII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Chesapeake and Ohio Railroad bonds, general gold four-and-a-halfs of 1992, 1893-1908 LVIII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Chicago, Burlington and Quincy Railroad bonds, Nebraska extension fours of 1927, 1890-1908 LIX.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Chicago, Milwaukee and St. Paul Railroad bonds, general gold fours, series of 1989, 1890-1908 LX.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Denver and Rio Grande Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold fours of 1936, 1890-1908 LXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Erie Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold fours, prior lien of 1996, 1898-1908 LXII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Hocking Valley Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold four-and-a-halfs of 1999, 1900-1908 LXIII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Iowa Central Railroad bonds, first gold fives of 1938, 1890-1908 : LXIV.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Long Island Railroad bonds, unified gold fours of 1949, 1900-1908 LXV.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Louisville and Nashville Railroad bonds, unified gold fours of 1940, 1898-1908 LXVI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Missouri, Kansas and Texas Railroad bonds, first gold fours of 1990, 1891-1908 LXVII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Missouri Pacific Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold sixes of 1920, 1890-1908 LXVIII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced b y the fluctuations in the price of Missouri Pacific, St. Louis, Iron Mountain and Southern Railroad bonds, general consolidated gold fives of 1931, 1894-1908 126 127 128 130 139 142 143 144 147 148 150 151 155 156 160 164 166 168 170 172 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 LIST OF CHARTS. 9 Page. LXIX.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of New York Central and Hudson River Railroad bonds, gold three-and-a-halfs of 1997, 1899-1908 LXX.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of New York Central and Hudson River Railroad bonds, West Shore guaranteed first fours of 2361, 1890-1908 LXXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of New York, Ontario and Western Railroad bonds, first gold fours of 1992, 1893-1908 LXXII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Norfolk and Western Railroad bonds, first consolidated gold fours of 1996, 1897-1908 LXXIII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Northern Pacific Railroad bonds, prior lien gold fours of 1997, 1897-1908 LXXIV.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of St. Louis and San Francisco Railroad bonds, general gold fives of 1931, .1890-1908 LXXV.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of St. Louis Southwestern Railroad bonds, first gold fours of 1989, 1892-1908 LXXVI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Southern Railway bonds, first consolidated fives of 1994, 1895-1908 LXXVII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Union Pacific Railroad bonds, land grant gold fours of 1947, 1890-1908 LXXVIII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of Wabash Railroad bonds, first gold fives of 1939, 1890-1908 LXXIX.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds, for periods varying from nine to nineteen years LXXX.—Seasonal variations in the number of commercial failures in the United States, 1890-1908 (based upon Bradstreet's figures) 200 201 2C2 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 220 Prefatory Note. This monograph, which has been prepared in a comparatively short and limited time for the National Monetary Commission in connection with its proposed work of currency and banking reform, is necessarily much more restricted in its scope and in its thoroughness than the writer would expect to make it were ample time available. I t suggests many more problems than it solves, and gives many important phases of the subject inadequate treatment, as, for example, seasonal movements in interest rates, the causes of seasonal fluctuations in various money-market data, and the correlation of such fluctuations. The monograph has involved a very large amount of statistical work. Most of the computations were done by students in Cornell University. All computations were carefully checked at least once, and many of them twice. While it is perhaps too much to expect that all errors should be eliminated in the millions of separate operations involved in such a study, it is believed that errors in computations are few and will to no appreciable extent affect the result. I n the preparation of the monograph the writer has obtained assistance from a large number of persons in different sections of the country. In most cases the responses to requests for information have been generous, and the writer wishes to take this opportunity to thank the many persons who have given valuable time to the answering of his numerous letters of inquiry. Acknowledgment for special assistance with reference to different subjects is made in the appropriate places in the text of the monograph. The writer wishes to express his thanks particularly to Mr. Fred I. Kent, vice-president of the Bankers Trust Company, of New York; Mr. James H . Brookmire, of St. Louis; and Dr. A. Piatt Andrew, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, who have rendered most valuable assistance in connection with the preparation of various parts of the report. Mr. A. M. Fox, a student in Cornell University, has rendered valuable service in connection with the preparation of the charts and tables. Prof. William A. Scott's paper on " R a t e s on the New York money market, 1896-1906" (in the Journal of Political Economy, May, 1908), while nowhere specifically referred to in the text of the report, has been found very helpful. Acknowledgment is also made to Mr. Charles A. Conant for suggestions with reference to the New York money market. SEPTEMBER 17, 1910. 11 SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL IN THE UNITED STATES-A STATISTICAL STUDY. CHAPTER 1.—INTRODUCTION. The most common criticism of our American currency system is its alleged inelasticity or irresponsiveness to trade demands, this inelasticity is sometimes considered with particular reference to panic periods which occur at more or less irregular and widely separated times, and sometimes with particular reference to regularly recurring seasonal fluctuations in the demand for money and loanable capital. This study is concerned primarily with such seasonal fluctuations. Its object is to throw light upon the regularity and the extent of these seasonal fluctuations, upon the degree to which our currency and credit system responds to them, and finally to show some of their probable effects upon general economic conditions as exemplified in such phenomena as security prices, commercial failures, and panics. While some attention will be paid to the causes of these seasonal fluctuations, the primary object of the investigation is to show what are the normal seasonal fluctuations which are actually taking place; and an adequate study of causes must be postponed until a future time. a The study is based upon the nineteen-year period 1890-1908, so far as data for this period are available. New York City is treated as a representative city for the Eastern States and New England, and also to some extent for the United States as a whole. I t is moreover used as a basis with which to compare other cities and sections. Chicago and St. Louis are treated as representative of the Middle West, the latter city also to some extent as representative of money-market conditions in the South. New Orleans represents the South, and San Francisco the Pacific States. Seasonal variations in the demand for money and capital can only be studied indirectly through their expression in such money-market data as interest rates; bank loans, deposits, and reserves; domestic exchange rates and interior currency shipments; foreign exchange rates and the movement of gold; amounts of money in circulation; clearings; and the like. I t is upon such data, a Jevons, in concluding his valuable essay, written in 1866, " O n the Frequent Autumnal Pressure in the Money Market, and the Action of the Bank of England," said: " I take it * * * that careful observation and comparison of the fluctuations of the money market are sufficient to enable us to avoid the inconveniences of these pressures. We should learn to discriminate what is usual and normal in the changes of the bank accounts, from what is irregular or abnormal. I t is a matter of skill and discretion to allow for the normal changes. I t is the abnormal changes which are alone threatening. * * * " (Investigations in Currency and Finance, London, 1884, p. 181). collected in part directly from bankers and public officials and in part compiled from government reports and the financial press, that this study is based. STATISTICAL METHOD. Throughout the report the various kinds of moneymarket data are combined in two ways: First, a simple average of the figures themselves; and second, a simple average of index numbers. The first way may be illustrated by reference to the figures for call rates of interest in New York City. a The average rate for each week of the nineteen years, 1890-1908, was taken, and each year was adjusted 6 so as to conform to the nearest fifty-two complete weeks. The rates for the first weeks of the nineteen years (1890-1908) were then averaged together, then the rates for second weeks, and so on through the fifty-two weeks of the year. The resulting composite is taken as evidence of the extent of seasonal variations. during what is considered a typical year for the period. In computing index numbers 0 the following method was employed: Each year was taken as a unit; the average rate for the lowest week in each year was designated by an index number of 0, the average rate for the highest week in the same year by an index number of 100, and the average rate for each of the other fifty weeks was prorated. d The weekly index numbers so obtained for each of the nineteen years were combined by averaging together those of the nineteen first weeks, then those of the nineteen second weeks, and so on through the fifty-two « Cf. p p . 15-17. & In adjusting the weeks at the beginning and end of the year, overlapping weeks in which four or more days fell in the new year were counted as the first week in that year, those in which less than four days fell in the new year were counted as the last week in the previous year. The first week may therefore represent seven days ending on any date from January 4 to 10, and the last week may represent seven days ending on any date from December 28 to January 3. In order to assist the reader to locate approximately the dates of the different weeks, there is given on each table and chart (based upon weekly figures) a schedule of months adjusted to a year in which January 1 falls on Sunday. cAs shown in this paragraph, the word " i n d e x n u m b e r , " is used in this study in a somewhat different sense than that in which it is commonly employed. d For example, if the average rate for the minimum week were 2 per cent, and the average rate for the maximum week were 8 per cent, these rates would be represented by index numbers, respectively, of 0 and 100; and a rate of, say, 6 per cent would be represented b y an index number of 66.6 (i. e., ^Q~2) X 100). 13 14 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. weeks of the year. The resulting composite is treated as evidence of the regularity of seasonal variations during the period, or, more correctly, of the degree to which the low rates, whatever they are, tend to cumulate at certain seasons, to which the high rates tend to cumulate at certain other seasons, etc. If the maximum weekly rate for the year should in every year occur in the same week, the average index number for that week obviously would be 100, and if the minimum weekly rate in every year should occur in the same week, the average index number for that week would be 0. I t is evident that if the range between the highest rate and the lowest rate in the different years should be approximately the same, the fluctuations portrayed by the curve of average rates and those portrayed by the curve of average index numbers would be closely parallel. Such appears to be the case in a large proportion of the money-inarket data studied. This type of index number has the following important advantages for a study like the present one: First, by reducing the influence of abnormal and extreme rates it prevents a few such rates from unduly distorting the story told by the averages. This advantage is an important one in the case of rates, like call interest rates for example, which are liable to occasional extreme fluctuations.0 Second, this type of index number enables one to reduce the seasonal fluctuations in all kinds of moneymarket data to a single common denominator, i. e., the range for each year, thus rendering them readily comparable. By this means one can easily compare the evidence as to seasonal variations in the demand for money and capital afforded by such diverse data as interest rates, bank loans, ratios of bank reserves to deposits, domestic and foreign exchange rates, currency shipments, and security prices. I n a study like the present one this advantage is very great. A third advantage consists in the fact that each year being taken as a unit, average figures are not materially influenced by permanent and nonseasonal changes in the « The point may be illustrated by two extreme examples. The average rate of interest for call loans on the New York Stock Exchange for the forty-fourth week of the year in 1907 was 50 per cent and the index number for this week was 100. For the nineteen years (1890-1908) the average rate was 7.08 per cent, and the average index number was 32.9. If the year 1907 were omitted from the average, the average rate for the eighteen years would have been reduced from 7.08 per cent to 4.7 per cent, while the average index number would have been reduced only from 32.8 to 29.1. (Cf. p. 15.) Again, during the panic of 1907 New York exchange in San Francisco declined from 70 cents discount in the thirty-ninth week to $10 discount in the fortieth week. For the eight-year period 1901-1908 the average rate for the fortieth week was $1,006 discount, and the average index number of rates was 46.3. Eliminating the year 1907 and taking the average figures for the other seven years of the period, the average rate is changed to 13.6 cents premium, while the average index number of rates is only increased to 52.9. The average index number of rates for the fortieth week therefore is in this case a reasonably typical figure; the average rate is very misleading. (Cf. pp. 94-95.) level of the figures. The monthly bank-note circulation of the country during the five years 1890-1894 was low, ranging between $162,400,000 (July, 1891) and $202,600,000 (October, 1894); that for the five-year period 1904-1908 was high, ranging from $410,700,000 (January, 1904) to $672,000,000 (January, 1908). (Pp. 381-385.) An increase of say 10 per cent during a year in the latter period would obviously have a much greater influence upon the average monthly circulation for the nineteen years than would an increase of 10 per cent in the former period. I t would, however, have essentially the same significance for each of the periods, from the standpoint of seasonal variations in the bank-note circulation. Such permanent changes in the levels of the figures compared have, however, little influence upon the evidence as given by the index numbers, since the index numbers are adjusted to the new level each year. They show the rise and fall of the waves, but are not materially influenced by the changing level of the lake. A fourth, though minor, advantage is the fact t h a t the citation of an index number enables one to locate quickly the relative position in the period of the particular r a t e (or figure) which it represents. If one says the call interest rate for the twentieth week of a particular year was 5 per cent and the loans of the New York associated banks were one billion dollars, a reference to the figures for the other weeks is necessary before he can say whether the cited figures were relatively high or low for the year in question. When one says, however, that the index number for call rates in the twentieth week was 7, he knows that it was a low week for that year, because t h e index numbers ranged from 0 to 100; and if he says t h a t the index number for loans was 90, he knows that this was a high week for that year. The most obvious defect of this type of index number is the counterpart of the first advantage mentioned above. While it minimizes the influence of extreme fluctuations, it sometimes exaggerates small fluctuations.0 With reference to this obviously valid objection it m a y be said that the index numbers are used in this study primarily to show, not the extent of the seasonal fluctuations, but the degree to which the fluctuations which d a take place are seasonal in character. In each instance, moreover, the rates are given along with the index n u m bers for purposes of comparison, and curves representing both the average rates (or amounts) and the average index numbers are plotted on most of the charts. Whenever the curve of average rates moves materially away from the curve of average index numbers it is probable t h a t there were some extreme or exceptional rates during one or a few years of the period. These m a y b e readily traced o To illustrate again by an extreme example: During the year 1904 call rates varied from three-fourths per cent to 3 | per cent, and during 1907 they varied from If per cent to 50 per cent. Each of the minimum rates was counted as an index number of 0 in the average for thenineteen-year period, and each of the maximum rates was counted as an index number of 100. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. by reference to the tables in the appendix, which give for each week (or month) of the period both the rate and the ndex number. Having explained the object of this investigation and the statistical method to be employed, we may proceed to the consideration of the principal topics to be studied, which are: 1. Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital (or loanable capital) in different parts of the United States as exemplified in money-market figures in certain representative cities. 2. Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in different parts of the United States as exemplified by domestic-exchange rates and interior currency movements. 3. Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in different parts of the United States, compared with t h a t in foreign countries as exemplified by foreignexchange rates and gold imports and exports. 4. Seasonal variations in the supply of different kinds of money and of total money in circulation in the United States. 5. Seasonal variations in the supply of deposit currency as evidenced by clearing-house transactions in certain representative cities and in the country as a whole. 6. Seasonal variations in commercial phenomena, such as bond prices and commercial failures, which might be expected to be influenced by seasonal variations in the relative demand for money and capital. CHAPTER II.—SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEYED CAPITAL IN N E W YORK CITY. The best available criteria of the demand for loanable capital a relative to the supply are probably found in interest rates and in the ratios of bank reserves to deposits. These items will each be studied for New York City, and the figures for bank reserves will then be studied for Chicago and St. Louis as representative cities for the Middle West, for New Orleans as a representative city for the South, and for San Francisco as a representative city for the Pacific coast. N E W YORK CITY. New York City, being the country's largest city and its commercial and financial capital, may well be taken as a basic point in our investigation. Its money market reflects well the financial conditions in the Eastern States and New England, and to a large extent those of the rest of the country. «The expressions "loanable capital" and "moneyed capital" are used interchangeably throughout this report. Cf. Johnson, Money and Currency, pp. 135-140. 15 CALL INTEREST RATES. (Chart I,<* Tables I and 1.6) Call rates on the New York Stock Exchange may perhaps best be considered first as a criterion. They are based upon loans of bank and trust company balances, and, being payable on demand and renewable from day to day at the prevailing rates, reflect more promptly, probably, than any other kind of money market rates the immediate condition of the market. They refer to the present and do not to any great extent represent a discounting of the future. For this reason and because they apply largely to loans made for speculative purposes, they are highly sensitive rates. What are the principal seasonal movements portrayed by Chart I, and to what extent are the average figures for the period representative of the fluctuations for the individual years ? TABLE I.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyea capital as evidenced by interest rates, call loans, New York Stock Exchange. Average cfigures,1890-1908. 1890-1908. Month and week.d 1890-1908. Average Average index rate. numbers.« Month and week. Per cent. Jan.—1.. 2.. 3.. 4.. Feb.—5. 6. 7. 8. Mar.—9. 10. 11. 12. Apr.—13 14 15 16. 17. May—18. 19. 20. 21. June—22 23 24 25 July—26. 6.42 1 3.62 2.84 2.50 2.45 2.39 2.54 2.70 2.97 3.58 3.85 3.24 3.62 4.00 3.78 3.03 2.94 3.37 3.47 2.64 2.44 2.28 2.31 2.41 2.51 3.50 July—27 23.8 28 14.9 29 11.9 30 11.1 Aug.—31 10.1 32 9.8 33 13.4 34 15.1 Sept.—35 19.7 36 22.4 37 19.2 38 22.0 1 39 23.8 Oct.—40 23.1 41 42 17.5 15.4 43 19.3 L Nov.—44 19.5 , 45 13.9 46 11.2 | 47....* 9.6 ! Dec—48 43.4 8.0 49 7.7 |i 8.0 ' 50 51 52 16.4 ! Average Average index rate. number.« r cent. 3.43 2.92 2.30 2.37 2.45 2.54 2.64 3.66 3.04 4.13 4.16 4.33 4.23 4.48 3.97 3.56 6.53 7.08 5.44 4.80 4.25 3.95 4.85 5.49 6.64 7.38 13.6 9.6 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.3 7.4 13.6 12.3 20.7 23.4 30.6 29.6 27.9 24.4 19.4 29.3 32.9 30.3 26.1 26.1 26.8 30.3 39.2 46.1 49.3 a On each chart the figures for the first week (or month as the case may be) are plotted twice, once at the beginning of each curve and once at the end. The latter point should not be thought of as " the beginning of a new year," but rather as the completion of the annual cycle (as it would appear on a circular diagram). 6 Tables are numbered consecutively, Roman numerals applying to those of the Text and Arabic numerals to those of the Appendix. c Figures by weeks for the individual years are given in Table 1 of the Appendix (pp. 235-236). d For explanation of schedule of weeks and months see p . 13, note &. e For explanation of method of computing index numbers, see pages 13-14. CHART I. Seasonal Variations He w 70 fo/af/vc Demand for Moneyec/ Cap/fa/ as Evidenced bq i\ tnferesf Kates t Calt Loans, Co New Tort Sfock Exchange, t8a0'i?08. SO 20 index Numbers interest Kates \WeekA Worths January (16) \Februorif • \ March \ fiprtf \ Afoif \ J^nne | \Ju/if \ ftt/qust \Sepf&mber\0cfo$er \/Voveml>er \Q*eer*$*r \ Jon. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. A reference to Chart I and to the tables upon which it is based 7 reveals six general movements and one minor movement which are fairly pronounced and regular in their occurrence. They are: First. A decline takes place from the beginning of the year until the latter part of February, being most pronounced in the second and third weeks of January. The average rate fell from 6.42 per cent in the first week to 2.54 per cent in the seventh week, and the average index number fell from 43.4 to 9.8. With the exception of the year 1895, the seventh week was lower than the first week in every one of the nineteen years. The maximum index number in the seventh week was 29.2, while nine index numbers in the first week exceeded that figure, eight of which were above 50.° Second. There is an advance from the latter part of February to the fore part of April. From 2.54 per cent for the seventh week the average rate advanced to 4 per cent for the fourteenth week, while the average index number advanced from 9.8 to 23.8. The fourteenth week was higher than the seventh week in thirteen of the nineteen years; in four years the figures for the two weeks were the same, leaving only two years in which the fourteenth week was the lower. Taking the index number 25 as an arbitrary dividing line, we find that eighteen of the index numbers for the seventh week were below that figure, while twelve for the fourteenth week were below it. Third. A decline takes place from the fore part of April to the latter part of June. The average rate fell from 4 per cent in the fourteenth week to 2.51 per cent in the twenty-fifth week, while the average index number fell from 23.8 to 8. A reference to the figures for the individual years shows that this decline is a fairly regular one, the twenty-fifth week being higher than the fourteenth in only two years out of the nineteen. 6 I n the fourteenth week the index number was below 25 (a figure selected arbitrarily) in twelve years, while in the twentyfifth week it was below 25 in eighteen years. The minimum rate for the year occurred in the twenty-fifth week five times, and not once in the fourteenth week. Fourth. The minor movement represented by the sharp advance and almost equally sharp decline about the lastf of June and the first of July is deserving of passing notice because of the regularity of its occurrence. The average rate advanced from 2.51 in the twenty-fifth week to 3.56 in the twenty-sixth, while the average index number advanced from 8 to 16.4. In only one year (1900) of the nineteen c was the twenty-sixth week lower than the twenty-fifth, and in this year the difference was only that between If per cent and If per cent. The twenty-fifth week had six index numbers above 5, «A brief discussion of the causes of these seasonal movements will be found on pages 28-30. & In two years the figures for the fourteenth and twenty-fifth weeks were the same. c In four years the rates for these two weeks were the same. 16065°—11 2 17 while the twenty-sixth week had twelve. A sharp decline took place in the next two weeks of July, the average rate dropping from 3.56 per cent in the twenty-sixth week to 2.3 per cent in the twenty-ninth, and the average index number from 16.4 to 5.3. In only two years (1896 and 1899) was the twenty-ninth week higher than the twenty-sixth, and in these years the difference was very slight; in thirteen years the twenty-ninth week was the lower, and in four years the figures for the two weeks were the same. Fifth. Beginning with the twenty-ninth week (latter part of July)—the week of lowest average index number in the year—there is an advance until the latter part of September. From the twenty-ninth week to the thirty-eighth week the average rate advanced from 2.3 per cent to 4.33 per cent, and the average index number from 5.3 to 30.6. Sixteen of the nineteen years showed a higher rate in the thirty-eighth week than in the twenty-ninth, one year (1893) showed a lower rate, and the other two showed the same rate for the two weeks. For the twenty-ninth week the maximum index number was 28.6 and sixteen of the individual index numbers were below 10; for the thirty-eighth week there were five index numbers above 30, including three of 100, and there were only five below 10. Sixth. The relatively high level of average figures reached the latter part of September is maintained until the fore part of December, with the exception of two minor declines which did not take place in a sufficient number of years to be considered as representative. 0 During this period, however, the rates from year to year exhibited much irregularity. For the nineteen years there were ninety-five index numbers in the forty-fourth, forty-fifth, forty-sixth, forty-seventh, and forty-eighth weeks together, and of this number there were fifty-three below 25, twenty-five between 25 and 49, ten between 50 and 74, and seven between 75 and 100. Seventh. Throughout December there occurs an increase in call rates, reaching the maximum figure for the year in the fifty-second week. The average rate rose from 3.95 per cent in the forty-eighth week to 7.38 per cent in the fifty-second week, while the average index number rose from 26.8 to 49.3. This upward movement of the average figures in December was due more to a few very high figures than to any strong tendency for rates to advance at this time. The fifty-second week was higher than the forty-eighth in eleven years, lower in seven years, and the same in one year. Two index numbers in the forty-eighth week were above 40, the highest of which was 91.7; eleven index numbers in the fifty-second week were above 40, four of which were 100. a These two declines reached their low points in the forty-second week and the forty-sixth week. In ten of the nineteen years the forty-second week was lower than the thirty-eighth, in seven it was higher, and in two it was the same; in ten years likewise the fortyseventh week was lower than the forty-fourth, in seven it was higher, and in two it was the same. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 18 which level it remains through the seventh week. I n seventeen of the nineteen years the fourth week was lower than the first, and in t h e other two years the rates for (Chart II, Tables I I and 2.) the two weeks were t h e same. The first week had nine Interest rates on sixty to ninety day commercial paper index numbers above 50, of which five were 100; it had should be one of the best criteria of seasonal variations five below 25, of which none were 0; the fourth week, on in the relative demand for loanable capital. Such rates the other hand, had three above 50, of which none were represent for the most part conservative business trans- 100, and it had eleven below 25, of which four were 0. actions, and are the rates at which a very large volume The rates for the seventh week were in most years little of business is normally transacted. Representing as they different from those of the fourth. do contracts covering a definite period of time, they anSecond. From the latter part of February until t h e ticipate market conditions for the period during which latter part of March the movement is upward. The averthe loans are to run. The movements of such rates may age rate rose from 4.28 per cent in the seventh week t o therefore be expected to be normally somewhat earlier 4.76 per cent in the eleventh week, while the average index than the corresponding ones for call rates. A reference number rose from 22.2 to 40. I n fourteen years the to the chart and to the tables reveals six fairly pronounced eleventh week was higher than the seventh, in two it seasonal movements as follows: was lower, and in three the rates for the two weeks were TABLE II.—Seasonal variations in the relative demandfor moneyed capital the same. The seventh week had eleven index numbers as evidenced by interest rates on sixty to ninety day, two-name, prime below 25, three of which were 0; t h e eleventh week had commercial paper, New York City. Average figures 1890-1908.° only three below 25, none of which were 0. Third. Beginning with the latter part of March there is 1890-1908 1890 1908 a fairly regular decline until the lowest point of the year is reached, about the middle of June. The average rate Month a n d week. M o n t h a n d week.& Average Average Average Average index index which was 4.76 per cent in the eleventh week, fell to 4.1 r a t e . rate. number.c number.c per cent the twenty-fourth week, while the average index number fell from 40 to 15.3. Fifteen of the nineteen Per ct. Per ct. July—27 4.53 25.0 53.1 4.97 Jan.—1 years showed a decline from the .eleventh week to the 28 4.61 26.9 41.5 4.73 2 twenty-fourth, two showed an advance, and two showed 3 . 29 4.56 31.2 4.46 31.1 no change. The eleventh week had four index numbers 22.7 4.28 30 4.61 33.5 4 22.9 4.27 Aug.—31 4.64 35.2 Feb.—5 of 25 or below, of which none were 0; the twenty-fourth 22.1 4.31 32 4.84 6 40.5 week, on the other hand, had fifteen of 25 or below, of 22.2 4.28 33 4.92 7 43.7 26.5 4.37 which seven were 0. 34 5.32 49.5 8 32.6 4.57 Sept.—35 5.25 51.8 Mar.—9 Fourth. From the lowest point of the year, in the latter <*34.3 d/4.64 36 10 5.26 55.4 part of June, there is a rapid advance to the highest point 40.0 4.76 11 37 5.05 57.5 39.6 4.80 38 12 5.33 64.7 of the year, about the last week of September. The aver38.1 4.78 39 5.30 63.2 Apr.—13 age rate rose from 4.1 per cent in t h e twenty-fourth week 36.7 4.66 Oct.—40 14 d5.15 <*61.7 to 5.33 per cent in the thirty-eighth, while the average index 33.4 4.57 15 41 <*61.5 <*5.14 31.9 4.51 42 16 «53.2 «4.87 number rose from 15.3 to 64.7. I n every one of the nine27.5 4.41 17 43 «51.4 «4.85 teen years the rate for the thirty-eighth week was much 26.9 4.39 May—18 Nov.—44 <*48 9 <*4.87 24.5 4.35 higher than that for the twenty-fourth. The maximum 19 ^51.3 45 <*4.87 22.7 4.33 20 d53 5 46 <*5.03 index number in the twenty-fourth week was 45.5; there 19.9 4.24 21 47 <*46 0 <*4.70 were twelve index numbers in the thirty-eighth week above 17.1 4.12 June—22 Dec.—48 48 6 4.82 15.8 4.08 this figure, of which five were 100; on the other hand, the 23 49 . . <*47 8 <*4.71 15.3 4.10 24 50 d7i 6 d 4.78 minimum index figure in the thirty-eighth week was 18.4, 18.4 4.33 25 e49 3 51 « 4.80 and there were eleven index numbers in the twenty-fourth 22.0 4.46 July—26 52 e 52.2 «4.87 week below this figure, of which seven were 0. 1 a Figures by weeks for the individual years are given in Table 2 of the Appendix Fifth. Having reached the highest point of the year (- p . 237-238). T>Cf. C p. 13, note (b). about the last week of September the average index numc For explanation of method of computing index numbers, see pages 13-14. d Average covers only 18 years. ber declines, reaching a somewhat lower level about t h e « Average covers only 17 years. / There is slight error in the average rate for this work as plotted on the Chart. This 1st of November, at which it continues with minor flucis the correct figure. tuations until the end of the year. From t h e thirtyFirst. Starting at a high level the 1st of January there eighth week until the forty-fourth week the average rate is a sharp decline throughout the month, the average rate fell from 5.33 per cent to 4.87 per cent, and the average falling from 4.97 per cent in the first week to 4.28 per cent index number from 64.7 to 48.9. Of the eighteen years in the fourth week, where it remains through the seventh for which satisfactory figures for these two weeks are week, and the average index number falling from 53.1 in available thirteen had lower rates in the forty-fourth week the first week to 22.7 in the fourth week, at substantially than in the thirty-eighth. The maximum rate for the I N T E R E S T R A T E S ON SIXTY TO N I N E T Y D A Y , T W O N A M E , P R I M E MERCIAL PAPER. COM- CHART II. Seasonal Variations inffte Relative Demand for Moneyed Capital Us Evidenced by - Inferesf Rotes, New York, on GO to <70 Oau Two Nome Commercial Paper, fS?0 -/fOS. Index Humbers Inferesf /Coles to \Wee£4 Jo/n/osy \fet>ruort/ \ March /s \ Aprs'/ 2 70. I, Mo 14 \ *June I *Jul<4 I /Jugg^t \&epfember\ October \//ovcmbcr \ December \^Jart. (19) 20 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. year occurred in the thirty-eighth week five times and not once in the forty-fourth week. The comparatively high level of the forty-fourth week is maintained for the remainder of the year. I n eight years (of the seventeen for which satisfactory figures are available) the rate for the fifty-second week was higher than for the forty-fourth, in six it was lower, and in three years it was the same for the two weeks. The fiftysecond week has five 100. A comparison of the chart for interest on four-months paper with that (Chart II) for interest on sixty to ninety day two-name commercial paper, reveals a very striking similarity in the movement of the two sets of curves. Differences consist principally in the fact t h a t minor fluctuations are more common in the case of four-months paper, and in the fact that four-months paper, anticipating a money market extending farther into the future, appears to begin its principal seasonal movements slightly earlier than commercial paper.® INTEREST RATES ON POUR-MONTHS TIME PAPER. Five general seasonal movements, and one minor movement of some importance, appear to exist for interest (Chart III, Tables III and 3.) rates on four-months time paper. They are: Four-months time paper by reason of its large and First. A sharp decline takes place during January. apparently growing importance in the New York money The average rate declined from 4.8 per cent for the first market is a valuable criterion of seasonal variations in the week to 4 per cent for the fourth; the corresponding rates for time loans. a average index numbers were 57.4 and 29. I n sixteen of the nineteen years the fourth week was lower than the TABLE III.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capifirst (in ten of which the index number was half or less); tal as evidenced by interest rates, four months' time paper. New York in the other three years the index number was the same City. Averagefigures1890-1908. & for both weeks. I n five of the nineteen years the maxi1890-1908 1890-1908 mum rate for the year occurred in the first week; in none did it occur in the fourth; in three of the years the miniMonth and week.c Month and week.c Average Average mum rate for the year occurred in the fourth week, and index Average Average index rate.d numnumrate.rf in one year it occurred in the first. ber.« ber.* Second. An advance begins about the first of February Per cent. Per cent. and culminates the fore part of March. The average rate /3.6 57.4 J U l y _ 27 4.8 Jan.— 1 /17.6 advanced from 4 per cent in the fourth week to 4.4 per /3.9 46.8 2 28 4.5 /26.2 /3.9 35.7 4.2 3 Z27.5 29 cent in the tenth. The corresponding average index 4.2 29.0 4.0 30 4 34.3 numbers were 2.9 and 44.4. I n thirteen of the nineteen /4.1 29.6 Aug.—31 4.0 Feb.— 5 Z35.9 years the tenth week was higher than the fourth (in nine of /4.2 30.8 4.1 32 6 /38.5 /4.4 37.3 I 4.2 7 33 Z46.2 which the index number was not less than twice as high); 39.1 4.3 34 8 /4.6 /49.7 in one year it was the same for both weeks and in five 33.3 Sept.—35, 4.2 Mar.— 9 52.4 4.7 years the tenth week was the lower. Taking 25 arbi44.4 4.4 10 36 58.2 4.8 43.1 4.5 11 37 trarily as a dividing line we find that the tenth week had /64.2 /4.9 43.4 I 4.4 38 12 68.4 only three index numbers below 25, while the fourth week 5.1 37.8 4.3 39 61.1 Apr.—13 5.0 had eight. 38.0 Oct.— 40 4.3 14 63.1 4.9 36.7 4.3 41 15 Third. A decline beginning the fore part of March 60.9 5.0 31.9 4.1 42 16 54.5 reaches the lowest point of the year the fore part of June. 4.9 27.4 4.0 43 /54.0 17 /4.8 The average rate declined from 4.4 per cent in the tenth 25.3 3.9 Nov.— 44 /49.8 May—18 /4.6 28.5 3.9 45 Z55.5 19 week to 3.4 per cent in the twenty-third week; the correM.7 25.3 3.9 46 0 52.4 20 sponding index numbers were 44.4 and 13.1. I n sixteen 0 4.5 19.8 3.7 47 Z54.7 21 /4.6 of the eighteen years (for which quotations for these two 19.3 3.6 Dec—48 0 48.6 Jane—22 04.3 /52.1 49 /13.1 /3.4 weeks are available), the twenty-third week was lower 23 /4.5 18.1 50 3.7 64.8 24 than the tenth (in twelve of which it was half or less); in 5.0 20.0 3.7 51 59.9 25 4.9 two years the twenty-third week was the higher. I n nine 52 /16.4 /3.6 Z58.7 July—26 /4.7 different years the minimum rate for the year occurred in the twenty-third week, while the lowest rate for the a Regarding the use of four-months time loans, Mr. Fred I. Kent, vice-president of the Bankers Trust Company of New York, writes: " They are mostly against drafts tenth week was 8.3. drawn under letters of credit, and the time of four months is asked by importers i instead of three months, due to several reasons: First, because the goods are in transit for a longer period than two and three months' credits are asked for, due either to distances the goods have to travel or the kind of ships used to carry them; second, because of a wider difference in time between the purchase by the importer and his opportunity to turn them over." Four-months time loans are also said to be used in large and increasing amounts bybrokers and others for obtaining control of funds for speculative purposes at times such as the late summer and early fall, when the prospects are for strong advances and for much uncertainty in call rates and rates on short time paper. b Figures by weeks for the individual years are given in Table 3 of the Appendix (pp. 239-240). c Cf. p. 13. note b. d For explanation of method of computing average rates, see p. 13. e For explanation of method of computing index numbers, see pp. 13-14. /Average covers only 18 years. 0 Average covers only 17 years. « The January declines for both reach their low point in the fourth week; the spring advance reaches its high point for four-months paper in the tenth week, and for commercial paper in the eleventh week; four-months paper reaches its minimum for the year in the twentythird week, and commercial paper reaches its minimum in the twentyfourth week; both reach their maximum for the year in the thirtyeighth week. Four-months paper reaches its high point for the last part of the year in the fiftieth week, two weeks earlier than commercial paper. CHART III. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 22 Fourth. Beginning with the minimum point of the year the forepart of June a pronounced rise takes place to the maximum for the year the latter part of September. The average rate advanced from 3.4 per cent in the twentythird wTeek to 5.1 per cent in the thirty-eighth; the corresponding average index numbers were 13.1 and 68.4. I n every year but one the index number for the thirty-eighth week was at least twice as high as that for the twentythird week, and in eleven of the eighteen years (for which quotations are available for these two weeks) it was more than five times as high. I n four years the maximum rate for the year occurred in the thirty-eighth week; in no year did the minimum rate occur in that week. Fifth. A decline interrupted by minor advances takes place from the latter part of September until the fore part of December. The average rate declined from 5.1 per cent in the thirty-eighth week to 4.3 per cent in the forty-eighth; the corresponding average index numbers were 68.4 and 48.6. I n twelve of the seventeen years (for which quotations for these two weeks are available) the forty-eighth week was lower than the thirty-eighth, in two years the rates for the two weeks were the same, and in three years the forty-eighth week was the higher. The forty-eighth week had eight index numbers (out of seventeen) below 50, while the thirty-eighth week had only five out of nineteen below that figure. Sixth. There is a minor advance during the first half of December followed by a slight decline during the second half. The average rate advanced from 4.3 per cent in the forty-eighth week to 5 per cent in the fiftieth; the corresponding average index numbers were 48.6 and 64.8. From this point there was a decline to the fifty-second week, the average rate falling to 4.7 per cent and the average index number to 58.7. I n ten of the seventeen years (for which quotations are available for both of these weeks) the fiftieth week was higher than the forty-eighth, in three the rates for both weeks were the same, and in four the fiftieth week was the lower. Ten of the eighteen years (for which figures for both weeks are available) had lower rates in the fifty-second week than in the fiftieth, four years had the same rates for these two weeks, and four years had the higher rates in the fifty-second week. RATIOS OF RESERVES TO DEPOSITS OF NEW YORK CITY CLEARING-HOUSE BANKS. (Charts IV and V, Tables IV and 4.) A second criterion of seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital is found in the variations in the percentages or ratios of reserves to deposits of the more important commercial banks—these variations being interpreted in the light of the seasonal variations in the amounts of loans, deposits, and reserves. An increase in the demand for loanable capital relative to the supply would obviously* normally tend to find expression in a reduction of the percentage of reserves. The tendency would be for banks to loan up to the limit of their reserves in order to meet the demand and realize the largest possible profit. This decrease in the ratio of reserves to deposits obviously might take place through an increase in deposits resulting from increased loans, or through a decrease in the reserves resulting from increased withdrawals of cash, or from both. I t is merely a question of change in proportions. There will be found in Table 4 (pp. 241-259) figures by weeks for the nineteen years (1890-1908) for ratios of reserves to deposits, amounts of reserves, amounts of deposits, and amounts of loans, for the New York City clearinghouse banks. There are also given index figures for the reverse of ratios of reserves to deposits, or, more correctly speaking, figures representing the curve for index numbers of ratios of reserves to deposits, as t h a t curve would appear if it were reflected in a mirror. This reverse curve would obviously tend to vary according to variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital. In the interpretation of curves showing variations in amounts, rather than in rates, such as the amounts of loans, deposits, reserves, and the like, it should be noted that, in the absence of any tendency toward a seasonal fluctuation, the curves would move steadily upward from the first week in January to the last week in December in response to the normal increase in the country's population and business. a The average amount of loans for the last week of the year, for example, would be higher than for the first week simply because the last week represents conditions nearly a year later in a developing country. Inasmuch as the type of index numbers used in this study designates the lowest weekly amount for each year by an index number of 0, and the highest weekly amount by an index number of 100, the curve of index numbers for amounts, in the absence of any seasonal variations, would rise continuously from 0 in the first week to 100 in the last week. a If the amounts studied were normally declining ones, like the amounts of national bank notes in circulation during the years 18831889, the curves would tend to fall from a maximum in the first week of January to a minimum in the last week of December, provided of course there were no seasonal variations. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 23 TABLE IV.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of New York City clearing-house banks. Average figures 1890-1908.^ [Amounts expressed in thousands of dollars.] N e t deposits. Loans. M o n t h a n d week. Average amount. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.—5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 July—26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec.— 48 49 50 51 52 1 697.8 697.8 706.9 714.4 724.2 732.3 735.6 736.0 737.7 735.1 731.5 728.8 728.8 730.9 731. 5 732.2 733.4 738.8 738. 9 736.7 735.2 737.2 739.0 742.3 745.9 748. 5 750.4 746.7 747.3 750.9 754.6 755.3 756.2 756.7 756.7 754.9 752.9 749.2 746.8 746.2 744.8 744.5 745.9 750.2 • 747.9 745.1 744.3 749.0 749.9 745.8 743. 5 742. 2 Average index number. 18.0 17.5 25.0 30.7 41.3 50.2 54.6 55.5 55.9 53.0 49.9 46.9 46.0 47.9 46.9 46.3 47.5 52.5 52.6 50.4 48.7 50.6 51.9 54.4 57.5 60.3 63.0 57.9 57.6 60.3 64.3 65.8 66.1 64.6 63.4 61.6 58.5 54.7 52.1 52.7 52.6 51.7 51.2 53.6 50.3 47.0 46.5 51.3 53.0 51.2 50.2 49.8 Average amount. 727.5 736.9 756.7 770.1 779.5 782.9 783.9 782.3 780.9 774.5 769.0 766.4 766.7 767.7 770.6 776.3 779.3 784.9 785.1 784.3 785.2 787.0 788.0 791.7 796.0 797.0 795.8 794.2 797.0 800.6 803.0 800.6 800.4 798.4 795.8 788.8 783.0 778.1 776.3 773.8 772. 0 773.0 774.6 775. 5 770. 5 769. 7 770.9 774.9 772.4 768.3 766. 0 766.6 Average index number. 26.3 33.4 46.6 54.8 61.2 62.7 63.3 61.4 58.7 53.3 49.8 47.7 47.1 47.4 49.1 53.0 55.4 59.2 61.2 59.3 59.8 61.5 62.0 64.2 66.3 66.5 66.4 64.8 66.1 67.6 69.6 66.9 65.6 63.3 60.8 56.1 51.5 48.9 48.7 47.9 47.0 47.2 47.1 47.5 44.4 44.6 45.8 48.3 46.7 45.2 44.6 45.9 B a n k - n o t e circulation. Average amount. 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 Average index number. 51.6 49.4 46.4 39.6 33.8 31.2 26.8 26.7 27.4 28.3 28.4 30.3 30.5 34.3 31.6 31.9 31.6 31.7 33.3 34.1 34.4 34.4 33.0 32.7 32.7 30.9 32.3 32.5 31.2 29.0 28.8 31.9 31.3 32.4 39.3 46.9 54.3 57.0 59.3 62.3 64.4 68.8 69.4 73.7 73.9 75.4 78.1 78.4 78.0 77.3 78.0 77.0 Reserves (Specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . Average amount. R a t i o s of reserves to deposits. Average index number. Average per cent. Average direct index number. 33.5 50.6 68.4 79.1 77.9 71.8 67.8 63.7 57.5 50.4 46.4 46.7 46.7 43.4 46.1 54.9 58.7 56.5 56.7 59.0 64.4 63.8 63.7 66.2 68.3 65.5 59.6 65.9 71.2 73.6 71.9 66.3 62.7 60.1 55.1 45.1 38.9 38.4 41.4 38.3 37.7 39.4 40.9 34.7 29.4 33.4 38.3 38.0 32.4 34.7 35.0 38.7 28.57 29.08 29.86 30.29 29.87 29.20 28.81 28.52 28.12 27.94 27.73 27.90 27.99 27.77 27.93 28.41 28.58 28.31 28.35 28.61 29.00 28.82 28.71 28.71 28.69 28.41 27.91 28.42 28.66 28.67 28.33 27.99 27.82 27.74 27.57 27.15 26.97 27.13 27.45 27.29 27.31 27.51 27.61 27.23 27.06 27.44 27.77 27.59 27.21 27.36 27.51 27.69 44.3 64.9 78.8 86.9 77.8 65.4 58.1 53.6 45.5 43.1 37.0 39.9 40.5 35.7 39.9 50.9 54.4 48.3 48.0 51.6 60.3 57.2 56.1 56.7 57.5 53.5 45.0 56.3 63.3 65.4 60.8 54.3 49.3 47.7 42.6 32.8 28.8 31.9 37.4 33.0 33.0 34.1 36.4 27.5 22.7 29.4 36.1 32.3 24.9 29.4 32.8 35.3 199.5 209.5 220.5 227.1 226.8 222.5 220.4 218.6 215.9 212.0 209.8 210.5 211.3 210.3 212.5 217.7 219.9 219.2 219.5 220.9 224.1 223.1 222.6 223.6 225.5 223.7 219.9 223.0 226.1 229.5 226.2 223.8 222.4 221.5 219.0 213.6 210.3 209.9 210.8 208.4 208.4 209.8 210.9 207.2 204.0 206.1 208.7 208.5 205.1 205.3 205.7 207.4 a Detailed figures for the individual years are given in Table 4 of the Appendix (pp. 241-259). Average reverse index number. 55.7 35.1 21.2 13.1 22.2 34.6 41.9 46.4 54.5 56.9 63.0 60.1 59.5 64.3 60.1 49.1 45.6 51.7 52.0 48.4 39.7 42.8 43.9 43.3 42.5 46.5 55.0 43.7 36.7 34.6 39.2 45.7 50.7 52.3 57.4 67.2 71.2 68.1 62.6 67.0 67.0 65.9 63.6 72.5 77.3 70.6 63.9 67.7 75.1 70.6 67.2 64.7 CHART IV. 1 1 1 I | <- Average 'Loans, "Average /ndex Numbers of loans. mfhe C Average Deposits Lows, DEPOSITS, AND BANK /VOTE CiFcciLAnoN D+++++" Average index A/ambers afbeposi/A offhe £ AYerage Bank No/e Circa/a lion NEW foes? CITY CLEAZHVG MOUSE 3/iNZ$t -F ^ Average index Numbers of Bank Nofc Orcu/af'on, I8<?O-I?0S. SEASOIV/?L tier V/t^mrioivs June (24) \ Julq \Augvsf ^epfembei[Ocfob/srWoycmbei]Pecember\ CHART V. A • •"•* Average Reserves. 3 flveraqe Index Numbers of Reserves. in fhc l&MJrC Average Ratios of Reserves fo Deposits]too\ h RESERVES MDR/JT/OS OF RESERVES TODEPOS/TA D— —Average Index Numbers of Raf/as of of/be Reserves fo Deposits. \30.4dLJ2SS{ E+*++m+Reverse of Average Index Numbers •W NEW YORK C/TY CLEARING MOUSE BANKS, of Ratios of Reserves fo DeposifA 1810 - !<?0S. SEASONAL V/tw/mdNS (25) 26 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. The question may now be asked, W h a t are the more (seventh week), and then declined until the fore part of important seasonal variations in the relative demand for April (thirteenth or fourteenth week). The average ratio of reserves to deposits declined from moneyed capital in New York City as evidenced by these figures of the Bank Statement? The curves for 30.29 for the fourth week to 27.73 for the eleventh week, average figures exhibit the following five general move- and continued at approximately this level until the ments, which a study of the figures for the nineteen fifteenth week (middle of April); the average index individual years covered by the averages shows to be number declined from 86.9 for the fourth week to 37 for the eleventh week and to 35.7 for the fourteenth. reasonably regular in their occurrence: First. The relative demand for loanable capital declines I n sixteen of the nineteen years the ratio of reserves to deposits was lower in the fourteenth week than in the throughout January. fourth. I n the three exceptional years (i. e., 1898, 1907, From the first week to the fourth the average reserves and 1908) it was only slightly higher. While fifteen of increased from $199,500,000 to $227,100,000, and the the index numbers for the fourth week were above 75, average index number of reserves from 33.5 to 79.1. of which six were 100, the maximum index number of the I n every one of the nineteen years the reserves of the fourteenth week was 73.5, and fourteen index numbers for fourth week were higher than those of the first. The that week were below the minimum of the fourth week fourth week had fourteen index numbers higher than the (i. e., 41.7). maximum index number of the first week (i. e., 74.6), Third. Beginning about the middle of April a decline of which eleven were above 85. On the other hand, the first week had seven index numbers below the minimum of in the relative demand for moneyed capital sets in, continuing, with minor interruptions (the most notable the fourth week (i. e., 33.4). During this period both loans and deposits increase being the last of June and forepart of July), until the last of July, when it reaches one of the lowest points in rapidly. The average ratio of reserves to deposits rose from the year. Average amounts of reserves increased from $210,28.57 per cent for the first week to 30.29 (the highest point in the year) for the fourth week, while the average 300,000 for the fourteenth week to $229,500,000 for the index number rose from 44.3 to 86.9 (likewise the highest thirtieth week, and the average index number from point in the year). I n every year the percentage of 43.4 to 73.6. I n sixteen of the nineteen years (i. e., all reserves was higher for the fourth week than for the but 1893, 1894, and 1899) the amount of reserves was first. Ten index numbers for the first week were below larger for the thirtieth week than for the fourteenth. 41.7, the minimum for the fourth week; while fifteen index The fourteenth week had eight index numbers above 50, of numbers (including six of 100) for the fourth week were which one was above 75, while the thirtieth week had sevabove 72.9, the maximum for the first week. The enteen index numbers above 50, of which ten were above evidence is accordingly strong for a pronounced and 75. The tendency for reserves to increase in amount regular increase in the percentage of reserves to deposits from early April to the last of July is therefore fairly pronounced. during January. The period from the fore part of April to the fore part Second. The relative demand for moneyed capital increases rapidly from the latter part of January or the of August is one of rapid increases in both loans and deforepart of February to about the middle of March, and posits, for both of which the average index number reached the highest point of the year between the last of then maintains a high level for three or four weeks. Average reserves, which were $227,100,000 for the July and the middle of August. Turning to the principal criterion, i. e., ratios of fourth week, declined to $209,800,000 for the eleventh week, and continued at approximately that figure until reserves to deposits, we find that beginning with the forethe fourteenth week; the average index number of part of April these ratios move upward, with minor interreserves declined from 79.1 for the fourth week to 46.4 ruptions,® until the last of July. The average ratio of for the eleventh, and to 43.4 for the fourteenth. I n reserves to deposits advanced from 27.77 per cent for the seventeen of the nineteen years the reserves of the fourteenth week to 28.67 per cent for the thirtieth week, fourteenth week were lower than those of the fourth. the average index number rising from 35.7 for the fourThe fourth week had fourteen index numbers above 75 (of teenth week to 65.4 for the thirtieth week. In fourteen which eleven were above 85), while the fourteenth week of the nineteen years the percentage of reserves to had only one above 75 (i. e., 79.5 in 1907). Three index deposits was higher for the thirtieth week than for the numbers in the fourth week were below 50, and eleven in fourteenth. The fourteenth week had five index numbers the fourteenth week. a The principal exception to this upward movement is the rather Loans continued their upward movement from the sharp and temporary decline about the first week in July. The averbeginning of the year until about the first week in March age index number dropped from 53.5 for the twenty-sixth week to 45 for the twenty-seventh week. In every one of the nineteen years there (ninth week), and then declined for about a month. De- was a decline in the twenty-seventh week. The average index number posits continued their upward movement from the begin- then advanced to 65.4 for the thirtieth week; and in every year but ning of the year until the latter part of February two the thirtieth week was higher than the twenty-seventh. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. above 50, of which only one was above 75, while the thirtieth week had fifteen above 50, of which eight were above 75. Fourth. Beginning about the first of August the relative demand for moneyed capital increases rapidly and continuously until about the middle of September. Bank reserves fell rapidly in amount during this period. The average reserve, which was $229,500,000 for the thirtieth week, fell to $210,300,000 for the thirty-seventh, while the average index number of reserves fell at the same time from 73.6 to 38.9. In seventeen of the nineteen years the amount of reserves was smaller in the thirty-seventh week than in the thirtieth. The thirtieth week had seventeen index numbers above 50, of which ten were above 75, while the thirty-seventh week had six above 50, of which three were above 75. The former week had one index number below 25 and the latter had seven. During this period the general movement of both loans and deposits is downward. Ratios of reserves to deposits decline very rapidly from the last of July to the middle of September. The average percentage of reserve fell from 28.67 for the thirtieth week to 26.97 for the thirty-seventh, the average index number declining at the same time from 65.4 to 28.8. I n eighteen of the nineteen years the percentage of reserves was lower for the thirty-seventh week than for the thirtieth. The thirtieth week had only four index numbers below 50, of which one was below 25; the thirtyseventh week had sixteen below 50, of which ten were below 25. Fifth. From the middle of September until the end of the year the relative demand for moneyed capital in New York City continues strong, exhibiting only minor fluctuations. The average amount of bank reserves declined from $210,300,000 for the thirty-seventh week to $207,400,000 for the fifty-second, while the average index numbers for the two weeks, respectively, were 38.9 and 38.7. In six years the amount of reserves for the fifty-second week was higher than for the thirty-seventh, and in thirteen years it was lower. The thirty-seventh week had six index numbers above 50, of which three were above 75; the fifty-second week had five above 50, of which three were above 75 (all three being 100). Each of the two weeks had seven index numbers below 25. Loans and deposits likewise show little alteration during this period, remaining until the end of the year at substantially the low level to which they fall about the last of September. During the months of October, November, and December the percentage of reserves to deposits exhibits minor fluctuations about the low level which it reaches the latter part of September. The average percentage of reserves to deposits, which was 26.97 for the thirty-seventh week, was 27.69 for the fifty-second week, while the corresponding average index numbers were 28.8 and 35.3. I n eleven years the percentage of reserves was higher for 27 the fifty-second week than for the thirty-seventh, and in eight years it was lower. The thirty-seventh week had ten index numbers below 25 and two above 75, while the fifty-second week had eight below 25 and one above 75. An interesting side light upon the situation is afforded by a study of the weeks in which the New York associated banks fell short of the government's requirements as to legal reserves. The New York Evening Post of January 18, 1908, gives a detailed statement of the weeks each year in which such deficits took place, and the amounts of the deficits, for the years 1880 to 1907 inclusive. The results may be summarized as follows for these twentyeight years: Month. January... February.. March April May June July August September. October... November. December. Total Weeks Total in which amount of deficits deficit. occurred. 448,000 850,000 907,000 583,000 909,000 335,000 524,000 019,000 225,000 519,000 82 576,379,000 The months of most frequent and heaviest deficits correspond closely with those which Chart IV shows to be the months of lowest reserves, both in amount and percentage to deposits. On comparing the curves for interest rates on sixty to ninety day commercial paper and on four months time paper with those for the amounts of bank reserves and for the ratios of reserves to deposits, one is struck by the fact that the general seasonal movements of the two sets of curves are almost exactly opposite to each other; when the interest rate curves are rising the bank reserve curves are falling and vice versa. The movements of the bank reserve curves, however, lag somewhat behind the reverse movements of the interest curves. a This lagging a The first week in January is a high week for four months paper and a low week for bank reserves and for the ratios of reserves to deposits. The average index number for four months paper declines to its winter minimum in the fourth week, while that for ratios of reserves to deposits advances in the same week to its maximum for the year. The average index number of reserves reaches its maximum a week later. Four months paper then advances to its spring maximum in the tenth week, while reserves and the ratios of reserves to deposits decline to their spring minima in the fourteenth week. Four months paper declines to its summer minimum—the minimum for the year—in the twenty-third week, and reserves and ratios of reserves to deposits advance to their summer maxima in the thirtieth week. Four months paper next advances to its fall maximum—also the maximum for the year—in the thirty-eighth week, while reserves and ratios of reserves to deposits decline to their fall minima—also the minima for the year— in the forty-fifth week. From the thirty-eighth week to the end of t h e year four months paper fluctuates at a high level, while from the fortyfifth week to the end of the year ratios of reserves to deposits fluctuate at a low level. 28 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. is probably explainable by the fact that banks in the I pals of maturing obligations, and the like. Of 887 bonds spring anticipate the accumulation of relatively large listed by the Commercial and Financial Chronicle (Janureserves during the summer by lowering interest rates in ary 2, 1909, pp. 42-45) for which interest periods are advance, and that in like manner they anticipate heavy given, 290 call for interest payments on January 1. demands upon their reserves in the fall by raising interest Mr. J. H. Brookmire, of the firm of Simon, Brookmire rates in advance and thus protect themselves. Interest & Clifford, of St. Louis, informs me that interest and rates on four months paper of course anticipate, and dis- dividend disbursements on bonds and stocks for J a n u a r y count, to some extent, a market running four months in in New York City amount to approximately $225,000,000 at the present time (1910). The payment of these oblithe future. The correspondence between the seasonal movements gations releases the strain upon the banks and throws of interest on time paper and the reverse movements of funds on the market seeking reinvestment. Bank deposits bank reserves and ratios of reserves to deposits is a corre- are much lower the fore part of January than at any time spondence to be normally expected. Declines in bank in December, but increase very rapidly during January. reserves would be expected to be accompanied by de3. A third cause is connected with the Christmas trade. clines in the ratios of reserves to deposits, and to be I The holiday season is one in which cash is withdrawn in caused by a relatively increasing demand for loans and considerable quantities from banks, and money is rean accompanying increase in interest rates. leased from small hoardings. This money flows into the banks to a considerable extent during the fore part of CONCLUSION A S TO SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE D E M A N D January. Settlements for purchases of holiday goods FOR MONEYED CAPITAL IN N E W YORK CITY. from New York City by other sections of the country Now that we have considered the testimony of four increase the flow of cash toward New York City at this witnesses, i. e., interest rates on call loans, interest rates time. 4. January and February are months of relatively on sixty to ninety day two-name commercial paper, interest rates on four months' time loans, and the figures small freight traffic. The holiday trade is over. Traffic of the New York City Associated Banks' statement, we on the Great Lakes and other inland waterways is tied may ask what is the weight of this testimony, and what up because of the ice, while the cold weather and snow are the more important general causes of the seasonal interferes materially with railroad traffic.® With the strain of January 1 settlements and of t h e movements which it shows. Making due allowance for differences in the length of the periods covered by the Christmas demand over, therefore, and money flowing different kinds of contracts studied, and ignoring minor into New York banks from all sections of the country t o variations, we may say t h a t the testimony substantially take advantage of the 2 per cent interest allowed on agrees in pointing to the following general seasonal bankers' balance, the financial market temporarily relaxes during the latter part of January and the fore p a r t movements: First. Throughout January there is a rapid decline in of February. Second. This lull in trade begins to be superseded by the relative demand for moneyed capital, making the last of January and the fore part of February a period of greater activity about the middle of February, the relative demand for moneyed capital advancing rapidly to a very cheap " money.'' The more important causes of this "easing u p " of the high level, which it maintains during the latter part of March and the fore part of April. The more important money market appear to be the following: 1. By the 1st of January the crop-moving demand for causes for this upward movement and for the resulting money in the West and South has spent its force. De- high level in the early spring are as follows: 1. This movement may perhaps best be considered as cember and January are the months in which the return a recovery to more or less normal conditions—if one may flow of cash to New York City principally takes place. speak of normal conditions in the money market—from This movement of cash, which will be discussed in detail the abnormally weak market which characterizes the in the next chapter, is shown in diagram form in Charts previous period. I t is a period during which the funds X X X I I , X X X I I I , X X X I V , and X X X V . " Large bank flowing back to New York from the West and South must reserves are piled up as the result of this eastward be absorbed. The low interest rates and high bank removement of cash, the banks' supply of loanable funds serves of the earlier period encourage investment. The increases rapidly, and interest rates decline. 6 sale of stocks and bonds increases, and prices of securi2. A second cause is the natural reaction—in part c ties rise. A well-known New York banker writes t h a t the psychological—which results from the relaxing of the heavy strain on the money market incident to January a The influences connected with the foreign exchange market will be 1 settlements. Large accumulations of funds in New considered later, pp. 138 ff. York City are necessary in December to meet annual, & A reference to the monthly figures given each year in the Finansemiannual, and quarterly disbursements, such as inter- cial Review for number and value of shares sold on the New York est on bonds and mortgages, dividends on stock, princi- Stock Exchange will show that February is almost invariably a low «Cf. pp. 126 ff. I month and that there is nearly always a pronounced increase in March. c Cf. infra, pp. 211-212. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. increased demand for moneyed capital at this time is partly due to the new capital flotations, which are commonly held for the cheap money which is generally expected at this period. 2. A second reason is to be found in the increase in certain lines of trade activity which normally takes place at about this time of the year. The Great Lakes, the Mississippi River, and other inland waterways are opened to traffic during the latter part of this period. Railroad traffic is released from the incubus of cold weather and snow. 3. A third reason, which will be discussed in detail later, is to be found in currency movements. March and April, particularly the latter month, are months of large shipments of cash from New York City to New England, a as a result largely of heavy payments being made at this time through New York City by western and southern jobbers to New England shoe manufacturers. Receipts of cash by the Federal Government are large in March and April, 6 and during these months the sums tied up in the subtreasury are considerably larger than in the preceding two months. c 4. A fourth reason for the upward movement during this period, or, more correctly speaking, for the comparatively large demand the latter part of March, is found in the need of funds for April 1 interest and dividend settlements. Of the 887 bonds listed in the Commercial and Financial Chronicle (Jan. 2, 1909, pp. 42-45) for which interest periods are given, 162 call for interest payments on April 1. Third. The third important seasonal movement in the relative demand for moneyed capital is a rapid decline from about the middle of April, ending with a very weak money market in June and July, aside from a slight strengthening at about the time of July 1 settlements. d The principal causes for this late spring decline and summer depression are well known: 1. The rise of interest rates and fall of bank reserves which characterizes the preceding period naturally tends to force the liquidation of the speculative investments entered into, when rates were low. 2. The hot months of the summer comprising the " vacation" period, and the period before the great crop movements of the fall set in, are usually dull months. This summer dullness is anticipated and discounted to a considerable extent in time contracts entered into during the immediately preceding months. 3. The decline in money market rates in the late spring and early summer is hastened by the large flow of currency from the Middle West in April, May, and June, particularly in May, after the spring demand of agriculturists a Cf. infra, Chart XXXIII and p. 92. b Of. Chart XLIV, and pp. 155-157. cCL Chart XLV, and p. 157. d July 1 interest and dividend settlements are about as large as those for January 1, and are estimated to amount to about $225,000,000; cf. supra, p. 28. 29 has subsided.® This inflow of cash from the Middle West is offset in part by the large gold exportations which normally begin in April and reach their highest point in May or J u n e ; 6 also by the diminution of federal deposits in the country's national banks, and by the increasing of subtreasury holdings, which advance from a comparatively low level in May to a maximum in July. c The continual decline in the relative demand for moneyed capital from April to July, which finds expression in such phenomena as large bank reserves, low interest rates, gold exportations, and high security p r i c e s / naturally brings its own correctives to some extent. Large bank reserves and low interest rates encourage increased loans and speculation; 6 gold exports reduce reserves; and so on. I t is with tendencies of this kind t h a t the fourth seasonal period is ushered in about the first or second week in August. Fourth. This period, whose discounted beginnings are evidenced by the upward turn of interest rates on sixty to ninety day commercial paper and four months' time paper as early as the first week in July, may perhaps best be dated from the first week in August, when call rates begin their upward movement and when bank reserves, both in amount and in percentage to deposits, begin their decline. The money market continues to tighten until about the 1st of October. The principal cause of the increasing demand for moneyed capital during this period is the call made upon the New York City banks by banks in the West and South for cash needed for crop-moving purposes. Under the provisions of the national banking act country banks may deposit threefifths of their reserves in banks of reserve cities or central reserve cities, and banks in reserve cities may deposit onehalf of their reserves in banks of central reserve cities. New York banks in their competition to obtain the deposits of reserve money of other banks are accustomed to pay 2 per cent interest on bankers' balances, with the result that from the beginning of the year until the cropmoving demand for money in the fall, large deposits of reserve money are kept in New York banks by the banks of the West and South. The demands upon banks in these sections for funds to use in the moving of the crops requires them to call upon New York banks for the payment of their deposits, and results in the rapid reduction of reserves and also of deposits and loans of the New York City banks, which was shown on the c h a r t s / I n response to this demand there is a very strong movement of cash from New York City to the West and South from August through October—a subject to be discussed later.0 This strong westward and a Cf. Chart XXXII, and p. 129. & Cf. Charts XLII and XLIII, and p. 150. c Cf. Charts XLIV and XLV, and pp. 157-158. <*Cf. Charts LII to LXXIX; and pp. 211-218, 230-231. e Cf. Charts V and LXXIX, and pp. 212-213. /Cf. Charts IV and V. gd. Chart XXXIII, XXXIV and XXXV, and p. 129. 30 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. southward movement of cash is in part offset by the heavy gold importations which normally take place in September, October, and November,** by the increase of gold (coin and certificates) in circulation, resulting in part from the large deposits of bullion at the mints and assay offices, deposits which are fortunately at their maximum in these months of greatest need; 6 and finally by the lessening of subtreasury hoards and increasing of Federal Government deposits in national banks, which during this period appears to represent the policy of our Treasury Department. 0 Interest rates on sixty to ninety day commercial paper and on four months' time loans begin their upward movement in the summer earlier than interest rates on call paper, not only because the periods of such loans are to cover the months of heavy demand for capital in the fall, but because banks in anticipation of the withdrawals by western and southern institutions for crop-moving purposes, release funds from time loans early and place them out at call at the best rates they can get, awaiting the crop-moving demand .d The last seasonal period in the New York money market dates from about the first week in October to the opening of the new year. During this period the relative demand for moneyed capital exhibits many minor fluctuations, but remains at substantially the high level reached the forepart of October. Interest rates on sixty to ninety day commercial paper and on four months time paper naturally fall somewhat after the forepart of October in anticipation of the January decline in the money market. Call rates, on the other hand, representing the more immediate market and reflecting the holiday demand for money and the demand for January 1 interest and dividend disbursements, move sharply upward toward the last of the year, and do not show any general tendency to decline until January. Bank reserves, loans, and deposits, we have seen, continue low until the end of the year. The westward movement of cash falls off rapidly in November and December, and by the latter month the return flow has set in; the southward movement declines in November, but shows some signs of increasing temporarily in December. Gold imports reach a low point in December, in part due to the lessened demand for funds in the United States, and in part to the preparations being made abroad for the January settlements. Throughout October, November, and December, the Treasury Department normally continues to increase its deposits in national banks, of which New York City gets its share. CHAPTER I I I . — S E A S O N A L VARIATIONS IN THE R E L A T I V E DEMAND FOR MONEYED CAPITAL IN CERTAIN R E P R E SENTATIVE CITIES. Now that we have considered the subject of seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital in New York City, the country's principal and dominating money market, we may appropriately study next the situation in certain representative cities in other parts of the country. CHICAGO. (Charts VI and VII, Tables V and 5.) Chicago being the country's second largest city and the chief money market center of the great Middle West will first claim attention. For Chicago our conclusions will be based primarily upon the figures of the Chicago clearing-house banks for the ten years 1899-1908. I n the absence of figures for interest rates in Chicago we shall base our conclusions upon the evidence afforded by the reports of the Chicago clearing-house banks as t o their weekly condition. I t will be remembered that the study of the New York market showed t h a t the testimony concerning general seasonal variations afforded by interest rates was essentially the same as t h a t afforded by bank reserves, it having been seen t h a t call rates normally vary inversely as the ratios of bank reserves to deposits. The presumption is that this correlation will also apply for Chicago and for other cities. I n view of the close connection between the New York and the Chicago money markets, and the extreme sensitiveness of our financial mechanism, it would be expected that the two markets would show the same general seasonal tendencies, but that each would show minor peculiarities of its own. The fact that the Chicago figures cover only the ten years, 1899-1908, while the New York figures cover the nineteen years, 1890-1908, prevents them from being comparable as to details; although if there is any pronounced seasonal tendency it should «Cf. Charts XLII and XLIII, and p. 152. appear in a ten-year average. 6 Of. Charts XL-XLIII, and pp. 150-152. The evidence points to the same five general movements c Ci. Charts XLIV and XLV, and pp. 158-159. which were found for New York City. These movements & For a good discussion of the general subject of the crop-moving which are best followed by referring to curve " E " of demand, see A. Piatt Andrew, The influence of the crops on business Chart V I I are as follows: in America. Quart. Jour. Econ., XX (1906), pp. 323-353. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 31 T A B L E V.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the Chicago clearing-house banks. Average figures & 1899-1908. [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1899-1908 1899-1908 Loans. Month and week. d 3 O a 03 © Ml 03 © > < Jan.—1 2 3 4 Feb.—5 6 8 Mar.—9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21 June—22 23 24 25 July—26 s d 1a © SP > < Deposits. CI 3 O i a © d © Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . a a • •° If I S3 © © © © © fcJO > < > < Average i n d e x numbers. 3 a . i Month a n d week. to © 03 © > < *&*- . 03 © .2 £ ad | © "©da > < > < 8.4 7.7 10.4 15.6 20.1 28.3 35.1 35.1 44.9 49.1 52.6 51.1 52.6 272.8 277.0 281.0 284.0 288.3 291.8 293.7 293.4 295.3 294.9 294.1 291.7 291.1 9.1 16.8 26.3 34.5 43.0 52.1 55.7 53.9 59.2 56.5 54.6 48.1 45.8 47.8 49.9 51.5 52.3 53.2 52.0 50.9 50.2 49.6 50.0 50.2 49.8 50.2 27.1 41.4 54.1 60.2 67.7 57.9 48.6 43.6 36.6 39.5 42.4 38.4 41.9 P.ct. 17.91 18.33 18.65 18.76 18.87 18.23 17.66 17.35 16.94 17.09 17.19 17.20 17.39 189.2 189.4 188.3 188.3 189.1 189.4 189.3 187.9 189.5 190.3 190.4 190.7 192.3 53.2 55.2 291.0 290.5 291.4 292.3 296.6 295.1 295.2 294.1 298.0 299.0 299.3 299.5 301.1 45.4 44.6 46.1 48.9 58.7 53.0 55.6 52.3 59.1 60.5 61.6 63.5 66.1 49.1 49.5 50.9 51.5 51.9 52.4 52.9 53.6 53.1 53.3 53.7 53.8 53.7 34.0 37.0 47.8 52.2 55.5 59.8 63.2 67.7 63.9 65.9 69.8 70.0 67.7 17.03 17.22 17.64 17.85 17.77 18.15 18.30 18.54 18.09 18.12 18.22 18.19 18.01 57.3 68.0 76.1 80.0 81.3 65.6 51.7 43.8 33.9 38.1 42.3 42.9 47.9 37.5 41.9 53.3 56.4 52.9 61.2 65.7 73.1 63.6 65.2 68.4 66.3 61.3 ei 3 o B 03 © © 176.3 175.6 176.2 177.8 179.1 181.3 183.5 183.2 186.0 187.5 188.7 188.4 189.3 51.7 51.5 55.0 55.6 56.0 50.7 54.8 56.9 57.0 58.6 64.9 Loans. 6 M © R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. 42.7 j July—27 28 32.0 29 23.9 30 20.0 Aug.—31 18.7 32 34.4 33 48.3 34 56.2 66.1 Sept.—35 36 61.9 37 57.7 38 57.1 39 52.1 Oct.—40 62.5 41 58.1 42 46.7 43 43.6 Nov.—44 47.1 45 38.8 46 34.3 26.9 47 36.4 Dec—48 34.8 49 31.6 50 51 33.7 52 38.7 193.0 193.1 193.1 191.8 191.9 192.4 193.3 193.4 194.0 195.4 197.1 198.3 198.7 198.6 197.9 197.0 196.0 195.4 195.2 194.8 193.5 193.1 193.1 '.. 193.3 193.9 194.9 3 d X © S, fi © > < 67.5 67.5 67.5 62.3 61.9 63.5 66.2 67.1 69.3 73.6 79.1 83.5 84.6 83.9 81.4 77.9 74.1 72.5 71.8 70.8 66.8 66.3 65.6 66.7 68.7 72.6 Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . 6 3 © 03 © 03 8-1 © < 303.5 302.4 303.6 303.6 304.7 306.2 306.8 305.0 303.9 305.6 307.5 305.5 304.8 304.4 303.4 302.9 301.4 300.9 301.4 302.5 301.2 301.3 301.2 300.8 301.3 300.0 3 d X © d © © 2 © d 3 o | d 3 q S ©-° 03 © < 2 > < 72.4 70.3 75.3 74.2 75.4 77.8 77.8 73.3 71.3 76.0 78.6 72.5 70.1 68.7 66.8 65.5 62.1 60.0 61.5 64.6 60.4 59.8 59.9 58.5 59.4 58.0 52.5 53.4 54.3 55.9 56.1 55.7 54.9 54.1 54.2 52.8 52.4 51.5 50.6 49.5 49.3 49.3 49.7 49.1 49.4 49.8 50.0 50.1 50.3 50.5 50.2 50.7 © & > < 60.1 67.1 73.8 86.2 87.8 84.7 79.6 71.2 73.9 62.2 60.5 54.1 45.7 36.3 35.8 37.3 41.9 39.1 39.8 43.4 42.3 41.9 42.6 44.9 41.6 44.6 R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Average index numbers. 1 1 © "ill © > < P.ot. 17.50 17.90 18.15 18.68 18.67 18.46 18.20 17.95 18.06 17.40 17.17 17.04 16.70 16.36 16.40 16.44 16.72 16.61 16.61 16.66 16.76 16.80 16.89 17.01 16.85 17.01 49.0 59.4 64.3 78.9 79.3 73.4 66.6 60.5 65.0 47.2 41.7 37.4 30.5 20.7 20.5 23.4 32.0 27.1 26.6 28.0 29.3 28.9 30.8 33.6 29.2 33.4 51.0 40.6 35.7 21.1 20.7 26.6 33.4 39.5 35.0 52.8 58.3 62.6 69.5 79.3 79.5 76.6 68.0 72.9 73.4 72.0 70.7 71.1 69.2 66.4 70.8 66.6 a Figures by weeks for the individual years are given in Table 5 of the Appendix (pp. 260-264). First. There is a January decline in the relative demand for moneyed capital continuing throughout the month. From the first to the fifth week the average amount of reserves increased from $47,800,000 to $53,200,000 and the average index number of reserves from 27.1 to 67.7. I n every one of the ten years the amount of reserves was higher in the fifth week than in the first. The average ratio of reserves to deposits increased from 17.91 per cent in the first week to 18.87 per cent in the fifth week, the average index number increasing from 57.3 to 81.3. This increase took place in seven of the ten years, and the declines in the other three years (1902, 1903, and 1908) were very slight. The fifth week had seven index numbers above 75 (including three of 100) and its lowest index number was 56.1, while the first week had three index numbers above 75, of which the highest was 88.9, and had three below the minimum figure of the fifth week. Both deposits and loans increased rapidly throughout January. The causes of this January decline in the relative demand for moneyed capital are essentially the same as those described in the previous chapter, a for New York City, and need not be repeated here. The second seasonal movement in Chicago, as in New York, is an upward movement in the relative demand for loanable capital beginning about the 1st of February and culminating the forepart of March, after which a comparatively strong market is maintained until the middle of April. Reserves both in amounts and in percentage to deposits declined rapidly from the fifth week to the ninth, and then maintained a low level until the fourteenth or fifteenth week (forepart of April), after which an upward movement began. The average amount of reserves which was $53,200,000 for the fifth week declined to $49,100,000 for the fourteenth week, while the average index number declined from 67.7 t o 34.0. I n eight of the ten years t h e reserves of the fourteenth week were lower than those of the fifth.a The fifth week had two index numbers below 50, while t h e fourteenth week had eight. Viewing t h e reserves in terms of percentages to deposits we find that the average percent of reserves dropped from 18.87 in the fifth week to 17.03 in the fourteenth, while the average a HTlno +\xrr\ D T P f l n t i n n o l i m a r a w o r c i 1 QH9 i n mVn'nVi + n o -i £»-v m o o CHART VI. (32) CHART VII. SEASONAL VARIATIONS in the fyo ft ' » Average Reserves. —|— 5 cRESERVES AND RATIOS OF RESERVES TO DEPOSITS Dofthe A CHICAGO CLEARING HOUSE BANKS. 16065°—11- Average Index Numbers of Reserves. • Average Ratios of Reserves to Deposifs. Average Index Numbers pf Ratios of Reserves to Deposits. Reverse of Average Index Numbers' of Ratios of Reserves to Deposits. (33) NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 34 index number dropped from 81.3 to 37.5. The fourteenth week was lower than the fifth in every one of the ten years. Average loans were increasing during all this period, although more rapidly during the earlier part of it; average deposits continued the increase * begun in January until about the 1st of March and then declined until the middle of April. The causes for this spring " recovery " are essentially the same as those mentioned for that of New York City. a The third general seasonal movement in the Chicago money market is likewise similar to that found 6 for New York City. I t is a rapid, though frequently interrupted, decline in the relative demand for moneyed capital from about the middle of April to the latter part of May, with a subsequent weak market until the fall demand sets in about the first of August. The evidence as to the extent and regularity of this movement is as follows: Bank reserves increased rapidly both in amount and in percentage to deposits from the fourteenth week (fore part of April) to the thirty-first week (fore part of August). I n this period the average amount of reserves increased from $49,100,000 to $56,100,000, and the average index number from 34 to 87.8. The thirty-first week in every one of the ten years showed a larger amount of reserves than the fourteenth week. Every index number for the thirty-first week was higher than the maximum index number (72) of the fourteenth week. The average ratio of reserves to deposits rose from 17.03 per cent in the fourteenth week to 18.67 per cent in the thirtyfirst week, while the average index number rose from 37.5 to 79.3. I n every year the percentage of reserves to deposits was higher in the thirty-first week than in the fourteenth. There is a general upward movement of loans and deposits during this period. A minor movement of some importance about the last of June deserves notice. I t is the sharp decline in reserves from the twenty-fifth week to the twenty-seventh week, which was followed by an even sharper advance from the twenty-seventh to the thirtieth week. This tightening of the money market, which is obviously due to the demand for funds for July 1 settlements, took place with great regularity. I n every year but three the amount of reserves fell from the twenty-fifth week to the twentyseventh, and in every year it rose from the twentyseventh week to the thirty-first; in every year the percentage of reserves to deposits fell from the twenty-fifth week to the twenty-seventh, and in every year it rose from the twenty-seventh week to the thirty-first. The causes for this declining and subsequently weak money market, extending from the middle of April to the first of August, are the same as those already referred 6 to for New York City, the principal one being the anticipated and actual dullness in business which normally «Cf. pp. 28-29. &Cf. p. 29. characterizes the warm summer months. I n May there is a substantial movement of cash from the Middle Western States to Chicago, a which has been released from its previous agricultural uses. A fourth seasonal period, which likewise corresponds with that found for New York City, extends from about the first week in August to the first week in October. Average amounts of bank reserves dropped during this period from $56,100,000 in the thirty-first week to $49,300,000 in the forty-first week, while the average index number of reserves dropped from 87.8 to 35.8. In every year but one the amount of reserves in the forty-first week was much lower than in the thirty-first week. Accompanying this decline in the amount of reserves there was a strong decline in the percentage of reserves to deposits, the average percentage declined from 18.67 in the thirty-first week to 16.40 in the forty-first, while the average index number of percentages of reserves to deposits fell during the same time from 79.3 to 20.5. In every one of the ten years the percentage of reserves to deposits was lower in the forty-first week than in the thirtyfirst. The lowest index number in the thirty-first week (i. e., 65.7 in 1899) was higher than the highest in the forty-first week (i. e., 59 in 1901). Nine of the index numbers in the forty-first week were below 32. Loans increased 6 from the thirty-first week to the forty-first, while deposits moved irregularly, increasing (as measured by averages) from the thirty-first week to the thirty-third, declining to the thirty-fifth, advancing to the thirty-seventh, and then declining steadily to the forty-fourth. This continuously increasing " hardening" of the Chicago money market from August to October of course, is, due primarily to the anticipated and actual demand for funds in the Middle West, West, and South for the moving of the cereal and cotton crops. The strain is probably not so severe in Chicago as in New York, because Chicago banks are not used anything like as extensively as New York banks as depositories of bank reserves of other cities. Chicago, moreover, being the center of a great cereal-producing region, receives much cash at this time c although her shipments of cash far exceed her receipts. I n August, September, and October Chicago receives cash in large quantities from the East and ships it in large quantities to the Middle Western States, the Southern States, and the Western States.** The fifth and last seasonal period of a general character in the Chicago money market consists in the maintenance, until the time of January settlements, of the strong market which was reached about the first week in October. During these three months there are various minor fluc«Cf. Chart XIX. b The average amount of loans increased from $191,900,000 to $197,900,000 and the average index number from 61.9 to 81.4. An increase took place at this time in seven of the ten years. c Cf. Chart XIX, and pp. 80-83. dCi. Chart XX, and pp. 80-83. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. tuations with something of a downward tendency, but the high level reached in October is substantially maintained until the opening of the new year. In this respect Chicago again shows the same seasonal movement as New York. A reference to the figures for the individual years bears out the testimony of the averages a that this is normally a period of a tight money market characterized by no pronounced tendency to a change either in the direction of becoming more utightened'7 or of "easing u p . " In seven years the ratio of reserves to deposits was higher in the fifty-second week than in the forty-first; in three years it was lower. The forty-first week had six index numbers of ratios of reserves to deposits below 25, while the fifty-second week had five. Both loans and deposits remained fairly constant during this period, at a high level, though with a small downward tendency. The crop-moving demand is scarcely over b before the holiday demand sets in, and this, together with the anticia The average ratio of reserves to deposits was 16.40 per cent in the forty-first week and 17.01 per cent in the fifty-second, while the corresponding average index numbers were 20.5 and 33.4. & The return of cash to Chicago both from the West and the South is primarily in January. (Cf. p p . 80-81.) TABLE VI. Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, 35 pated requirements for January disbursements, keeps the money market strained until the new year. ST. LOUIS. (Charts V I I I and IX,« Tables VI and 6.) As the next representative city we have selected St. Louis, the fourth largest city in the United States in population, the chief city in the Mississippi Valley, the center of a great wheat, corn, and cotton section, and one of the greatest distributing centers of the entire country. The facts that St. Louis is a central reserve city under our national banking system and is the seat of a United States assay office are matters of importance. 6 For St. Louis, as for Chicago, in the absence of better data, our conclusions as to seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital will be based primarily upon the figures for reserves, deposits, and loans of the city's clearing-house banks for the period 1899-1908, the principal criterion taken being the percentage of bank reserves to deposits. In the next chapter the St. Louis money market will be studied from the standpoint of domestic exchange rates and currency receipts and shipments. &Cf. p p . 129-132. «Cf. n o t e b , Table VI. reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits of the St. Average figures,a 1899-1908. Louis clearing-house baroks. [Amounts expressed in millions of dollars.] 1899-1908 1899-1908 Deposits. Loans. Month and week. 3 O fl fl •4 © fl •4-S §o © © SP © > < 1 © ©- 0 < fl fl © fl © •1-1,0 © c3 t-i © > 4J fl so 1 © & < fl H © "2 fl n' © ©-° SP g 23 24 25 July—26 97.5 97.1 97.1 96.8 97.5 96.9 97.9 97.8 98.7 99.2 99.7 100.2 100.8 100.9 100.5 100.4 100.0 102.6 102.8 103.0 102.3 103.1 102.7 103.6 104.1 104.3 23.6 21.8 21.3 20.4 23.6 19.6 26.1 25.7 34.3 34.8 39.5 42.3 46.1 47.0 43.3 43.1 39.2 46.0 46.8 46.8 41.8 43.7 43.3 46.7 49.6 48 9 122.1 15.5 122.8 19.1 124.4 26.5 124.1 26.4 125.6 33.6 126.2 36.0 127.6 41.8 128.7 47.0 129.6 49.9 130.2 52.7 128.8 47.0 128.2 44.4 128.0 45.8 128.5 47.5 128.7 47.9 127.0 40.5 126.4 38.5 129.9 49.5 130.2 50.1 130.4 50.9 129.8 47.9 132.6 57.8 132.0 55.7 132.1 57.0 131.0 53.0 131.0 54.3 Average index number. ( 1 17.1 26.8 17.8 41.1 18.3 50.6 18.5 50.3, 18.5 48.7 18.7 52.6 19.2 62.2 19.4 69.6 19.1 63.9 19.1 67.8 18.8 61.7 18.5 56.1 18.0 48.4 18.3 53.3 18.7 58.1 18.5 57.1 18.4 57.5 19.1 62.3 19.8 73.0 19.6 71.4 19.8 72.0 19.4 64.4 19.3 64.4 19.6 71.4 19.0 63.4 18.4 53.5 a Month and week. § o 1 © > ^ .2 Per ct. 13.79 14.41 14.55 14.60 14.31 14.51 14.88 14.84 14.40 14.48 14.42 14.13 13.83 13.92 14.21 14.53 14.44 14.52 14.99 14.78 14.99 14.37 14.47 14.78 14.50 14.02 48.7 65.6 68.9 69.2 60.3 65.3 72.6 72.3 63.7 67.2 65.7 58.4 50.5 53.0 59.9 67.1 65.1 65.7 76.5 71.5 75.6 61.4 63.2 70.9 65.7 55.3 Deposits. Loans. .2 < -< Jan.—1 2 3 4 Feb.—5 6 7 8 Mar.—9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21 June—22 R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. h B "S Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . 1 1 © III © > < 51.3 July—27 34.4 28 29. 31.1 30 30.8 Aug.—31 39.7 32. 34.7 33 27.4 34 27.7 36.3 Sept.—35 36 32.8 37 34.3 38 41.6 39 49.5 Oct.—40. 47.0 41. 40.1 42 32.9 1 43 34.9 34.3 45 23.5 46. 28.5 47 24.4 38.6 1 D e c — 4 8 . 49 36.8 50 29.1 34.3 1 51. 52. . 44.7 .. . .. . .. . .. . 104.5 104.9 105.0 105.0 105.2 105.6 106.0 106.3 106.5 107.1 107.7 107.8 109.1 108.9 108.5 108.2 107.7 107.3 107.0 107.5 108.0 107.9 108.3 109.7 110.1 109.9 +3 fl o © fl © © ^ SP i < 48.7 50.8 51.7 53.5 55.3 57.2 61.5 62.7 63.0 67.9 71.6 72.0 77.3 76.3 73.3 70.9 68.5 65.1 63.3 59.1 64.8 63.9 66.1 75.7 78.2 79.4 130.8 130.7 129.9 129.2 130.3 131.6 132.1 132.3 133.3 134.3 133.0 131.2 130.8 131.8 131.6 130.6 130.4 130.2 132.5 134.3 134.3 135.6 135.7 137.4 136.3 137.2 Reserves R a t i o of reserves t o (specie a n d deposits. legal t e n d e r s ) . 3 fl H © i a © o © ^ SP g 1 < < 52.4 51.2 47.3 43.7 47.2 52.8 55.2 56.2 59.5 64.0 57.2 50.4 47.9 53.3 51.6 47.9 46.3 45.5 55.2 60.2 60.6 65.6 66.0 71.3 66.6 70.1 © 18.3 18.6 18.3 18.6 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 18.8 18.5 17.8 17.2 16.8 16.4 16.3 16.0 16.2 16.5 17.7 18.7 18.6 18.3 18.6 18.5 18.1 18.8 s fl fl M © "2 * © • •° A 8P © > < A v e r a g e index number. .2 c3 U © SP g © > Per ct. 51.8 13.89 62.0 14.25 55.3 14.21 57.1 14.31 48.6 13.84 56.9 14.08 64.0 14.20 67.7 14.39 5 8 . 2 ' 13.87 50.6 13.50 41.5 13.16 31.1 12.89 25.1 12.49 12.26 20.5 12.30 21.1 12.23 19.6 12.83 24.3 12.71 30.0 13.37 50.0 13.94 64.7 13.87 &61.7 13.57 655.4 13.70 59.2 13.16 51.3 12.89 42.3 13.36 53.1 .2 51.8 60.4 58.8 61.2 51.0 ?>54.6 62.0 67.1 52.6 44.8 37.6 30.8 21.9 15.8 19.6 17.0 26.5 626.3 43.3 56.9 53.4 45.3 48.3 38.1 31.0 43.4 (>T3 © 3 3 fl fl HI 48.6 39.2 41.2 38.8 49.0 645.4 38.0 32.9 47.4 55.2 62.4 69.2 78.1 84.2 80.4 83.0 73.5 &73.7 56.7 43.1 46.6 54.7 51.7 61.9 69.0 56.4 a Figures by weeks for the individual years are given in Table 6 of the Appendix (pp. 265-269). & There are a few very slight errors in three of the curves plotted on Chart IX, i. e. curves " D ' and " E " for the 32nd and 44th weeks, and curve " B " for the 47th and 48th weeks. The figures in the Table are correct. CHART VIII. SEASONAL VARIATIONS U30 14S <?o in /he LOANS AND DEPOSITS \/2S oftpe 140 \8o ST. Louis CLEARING HOUSE BANKS. \I20 10 l$S no \ao \//0 123 so I I OS 120 40 \ too its \30\ / ? — —Average Loans. B— —Average Index Numbers of Loans, & L4 tfo 2o I vervge Deposits. D fO -Overage Index Numbers of Deposifs. re LJ /os $£ I \/0O Weeks ] S Months 1 'January \Fet>ruaru\ (36) to March \ 15 /tprit | 2o fiTau 2S Uunc. 3o I sJu/ci JS j August \Sc.ptcmbcr\ 4o October 4S S& \WeeM XNovember \ December "Ua/h WonHA CHAPTER IX. SEASONAL VtutmriONS H in the -#-. Average Reserves. Average Index Numbers of Reserves. RESERVES AND RATIOS OF RESERVES TO DEPOSITSC »« *»Average Ratios of Reserves fo Deposits, of the D ST. LOUIS CLEARING HOUSE BANKS, -Average Index Numbers of Ratios of Reserves to Deposits, £++++++*+ReYcrse of Average Index Numbers of Ratios of Reserves to Deposifs. Jf?Q_njh$ Januartf s \ Febraor<j\ to Mfarc h IS ftpr/t JO June I *Jc//cf I /fo<7(ASf \Sati?fcmber\ Ocfobcr \NoY<smber\0&cember\ (37) Jan. \iriontb& 38 NATIONAL MONE'TARY COMMISSION. A reference to these tables and charts will show the following seasonal movements in the relative demand for moneyed capital: a First. There is the usual decline from the first to the fourth week, followed by a sharp advance in the fifth week ; and then by a decline until the seventh week (about the middle of February). The second seasonal movement of consequence, in the relative demand for loanable capital, is the spring advance, extending from the latter part of February until the fore part of April. What is the evidence afforded by the figures of the bank statement for this spring advance ? Bank reserves declined in amount from the seventh week (latter half of February) to the thirteenth week (first of April)^the average amount falling from $19,200,000 in the seventh week to $18,000,000 in the thirteenth week, and the average index number from 62.2 to 48.4. The amount of reserves decreased from the seventh to the thirteenth week in seven of the ten years. Average deposits rose from the seventh week to the tenth week, and then declined to the thirteenth week, the average index number of deposits following the same course, but reaching its low point in the twelfth week. Average loans and average index numbers of loans advanced throughout this period. Ratios of reserves to deposits declined pretty steadily and regularly from the seventh to the thirteenth week. The average ratio declined from 14.88 per cent in the seventh week to 13.83 per cent in the thirteenth week, while the average index number declined from 72.6 to 50.5. I n every one of the ten years the percentage of reserves to deposits was lower in the thirteenth week than in the seventh. The seventh week had eight index numbers above 65, while the thirteenth week had only two. This increased demand for capital in the early spring corresponds to the similar spring increases found in New York and Chicago, b u t taking place in those cities two or three weeks earlier. The principal causes have already been explained. 5 The third seasonal movement in the relative demand for moneyed capital in St. Louis is a decline beginning about the first of April and reaching its low point—the lowest point of the year—about the middle of May. Concerning the regularity of this movement, the evidence may be summarized as follows: From the thirteenth week (fore part of April) to the nineteenth week (near the middle of May) the average amount of reserves rose from $18,000,000 to $19,800,000, and the average index number from 48.4 to 73. In every year but one (1904) the reserves of the nineteenth week were higher than those of the thirteenth week, and in the exceptional year they were only slightly lower. a They may be traced best by reference to curve " E " (Chart IX), which is the reverse of curve " D , " or, more correctly speaking, the mirrored reflection of it, with the mirror at the horizontal line representing index number 50. (Cf. p. 241, notes c and <*.) b Cf. pp. 28-29. Nine index numbers in the thirteenth week, as compared with only three in the nineteenth, were below 70. The movements of amounts of loans and deposits from the thirteenth week to the nineteenth were too irregular to be of much significance in a study of general tendencies. Our principal criterion, the ratio of reserves to deposits, advanced almost continuously from the thirteenth week to the nineteenth. During these weeks the average ratio rose from 13.83 per cent to 14.99 per cent, and the average index number from 50.5 to 76.5. In every one of the ten years the percentage of reserves was higher in the nineteenth week than in the thirteenth. The nineteenth week had nine index numbers above 65 (including five above 80), as compared with only two for the thirteenth week (the higher of which was 78.1). This relaxing of the money market, beginning immediately after April settlements and continuing until the latter part of May, is similar to the tendency we have found to exist in New York and Chicago, and is apparently due in part to the same causes, the chief of which is the anticipation of the slack summer months. The fact t h a t in St. Louis the highest percentages of reserves for this period of the year appears in May—about two months earlier than it appears in New York City—may be due in part to the relatively large shipments of cash which are made in May to St. Louis by the Southern States. 0 A fourth period for St. Louis extends from the latter part of May to the fore part of August, and is characterized by a small but gradually increasing relative demand for moneyed capital. During this period the amounts of bank reserves remained high and exhibited many minor fluctuations, but their general tendency was downward. Comparing the amounts of reserves in the nineteenth week (near the middle of May) with those of the thirty-first week (about the first of August), we find that the average amount declined from $19,800,000 to $18,600,000 and the average index number from 73.0 to 48.6. In every year but 1902 the amount of reserves was considerably lower in the thirty-first week than in the nineteenth. The maximum index number in the thirty-first week was 65.0 (1905), while seven index numbers in the nineteenth week exceeded that figure. There was an upward movement of deposits from the nineteenth week to the twenty-third and then a decline to the thirtieth, after which an upward movement again commenced. The movement of loans, on the other hand, was upward throughout most of the period. Average ratios of reserves to deposits fluctuated considerably at a moderately high level, but with a general downward tendency. The average ratio, which was 14.99 per cent in the nineteenth week, fell to 13.84 per cent in the thirty-first week, while the average index number fell from 76.5 to 51. In every year b u t one (1902) the percentage of reserves was lower in the thirty-first week than <*Cf. Chart XXII and pp. 84-85. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 39 in the nineteenth. The maximum index number in the thirty-first week was 71.9, while the nineteenth week had six index numbers above that figure. The relatively small demand for loanable capital during this period is obviously due to the hot weather and to the fact that this is the vacation period. Harvest demands have not yet begun. The increase in the demand in July may be explained in part by agricultural needs, i. e., the needs for financing the corn crop in the corn section and for financing the cotton crop in the cotton section. These requirements lead to considerable shipments of cash to the near by States, Middle Western, Western, and Southern, as early as July. a There is the usual tightening of the market about the last of June in response to preparations for July 1 disbursements. I n August, from the thirty-first week to the thirtyfourth, there frequently occurs a temporary weakening of the market before the harvest demand begins. Average deposits and average amounts of reserves increase, and there is a sharp advance in the percentage of reserves to deposits. The average percentage increased from 13.84 in the thirty-first week to 14.39 in the thirty-fourth, while the average index number increased from 51 to 67.1. An increase took place at this period in seven of the ten years. The thirty-fourth week had six index numbers above 60, while the thirty-first week had but one; it had eight above 50 (including four above 75), while the thirty-first week had six above 50 (of which the highest was 71.9). I have not been able to secure any satisfactory explanation of this movement. I t may be due in part to early receipts 6 of cash from the Eastern States and from near by sections, in anticipation of the crop-moving demand, which temporarily lie idle. St. Louis, being a central reserve city and her banks paying interest on bankers' balances received on deposit from other cities, is liable to receive money from the cities and towns in neighboring districts whenever the local demand in those places subsides. Beginning about the last of August, the crop-moving demand makes itself felt in the St. Louis market, and there is a continuous increase in the relative demand for moneyed capital until the fore part of October. The high level then reached continues only two or three weeks. Wheat first begins to move, then corn, and finally cotton. The extent and regularity of this crop-moving demand in the fall, as evidenced by the bank figures, are as follows : From the thirty-fourth week (last of August) to the forty-second week (middle of October) the average amount of reserves decreased from $19,400,000 to $16,000,000, while the average index number decreased from 67.7 to 19.6. In every one of the ten years the reserves were much smaller in the forty-second week than in the thirty-fourth. The minimum index number in the thirtyfourth week was 45.5, and five index numbers in this week were above 60; the maximum index number in the forty-second week was 48.3, and six index numbers in this week were below 20. Deposits during most of this period showed a downward tendency, although there were several minor advances. Loans advanced from the thirty-fourth week to the thirty-ninth, and then declined. Ratios of reserves to deposits exhibited a very pronounced and very regular downward movement. The average ratio declined from 14.39 per cent in the thirtyfourth week to 12.23 per cent in the forty-second week, while the average index number declined from 67.1 to 17.0. In every one of the ten years the forty-second week ratio was lower than the thirty-fourth. Nine of the ten index numbers for the forty-second week were lower than the minimum (33.8) of the thirtyfourth week, while eight index numbers of the thirtyfourth week were above the maximum (47.9) of the forty-second week. Bank reserves therefore show that the crop-moving demand causes a pronounced and continuous tightening of the St. Louis money market from about the last of August to early October, and that October is the month of the year in which the relative demand for moneyed capital in St. Louis is the strongest. From the last of October to about the middle of November there occurs very regularly a pronounced "easing u p " of the money market, which is not found to anything like the same extent in either Chicago or New York, although call interest rates in New York City point to such a tendency.® The evidence as to its occurrence and regularity in St. Louis may be briefly summarized as follows: The average amount of reserves increased from $16,000,000 in the forty-second week to $18,700,000 in the forty-sixth week, while the average index number increased from 19.6 to 64.7. In every one of the ten years the reserves were larger in the forty-sixth week than in the forty-second. Eight index numbers in the fortysixth week were higher than the maximum index number (48.3) in the forty-second week; one index number in the forty-sixth week was below 45, as compared with nine in the forty-second week. The tendency of loans during these four weeks (as judged by average figures) was downward—that of deposits was downward during the first two weeks and upward during the second two. Our chief criterion, ratios of reserves to deposits, exhibited a strong upward movement from the forty-second week to the forty-sixth. The average percentage of reserves increased from 12.23 to 13.94, while the average index number increased from 17 to 56.9. There was an increase at this time in every year but one. Seven index numbers for the forty-sixth week were larger than the maximum of the forty-second week (47.9). a Ci. Chart XXIII and pp. 86-87. & Cf. Chart XXII and pp. 84-85. a Cf. Chart I and pp. 15-17. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 40 By this period the crop-moving demand is rapidly falling off, currency shipments from St. Louis to other western and to southern points have subsided,** although receipts of cash from the Eastern States may continue to be large b. Beginning about November 1 and continuing for three or four weeks there are heavy payments to the banks caused by the settlements by dry goods, hardware, and boot and shoe houses of their eastern accounts. 0 The last seasonal period of the year in the St. Louis money market extends from the last part of November to the end of the year and is characterized by a progressive "hardening" of the money market, caused apparently by the holiday trade, and by preparation for the January 1 settlements. Its character and regularity are evidenced as follows: Bank reserves during this period do not exhibit any appreciably regular tendency either to increase or decrease in amount. Their average weekly amount declined four times and advanced three times during the period from the forty-sixth to the fifty-second week, and in the fifty-second week was almost exactly the same as in the forty-sixth. The average index number declined from 64.7 in the forty-sixth week to 42.3 in the fifty-first, and then advanced to 53.1 in the fifty-second. A reference to the figures for the individual years fails to show any regularity of movement. In four years the reserves were larger in the fifty-first week than in the forty-sixth, and in six years they were smaller; in five years the reserves were larger in the fifty-second week than in the forty-sixth, and in five they were smaller. There is a uniform tendency upward in the last week of the year, the average amount advancing from $18,100,000 in the fifty-first week to $18,800,000 in the fifty-second; and the average index number of amounts advancing from a Cf. Chart XXIII, and pp. 86-87. b Cf. Chart XXII, and pp. 84-85. cCf. Chart XXI, and pp. 104-105. 42.3 to 53.1. I n nine of the ten years the reserves of the fifty-second week were larger than those of the fifty-first. Deposits and loans both showed a considerable upward tendency during the last seven weeks of the year. Average loans rose in this period from $107,500,000 to $109,900,000, and the average index number from 59.1 to 79.4, an advance taking place in eight of the ten years. Average deposits rose from $134,300,000 to $137,200,000, and the average index number of deposits from 60.2 to 70.1, the advance taking place in eight of the ten years. With reserves remaining fairly constant in amount and deposits increasing, ratios of reserves to deposits fell. The average ratio declined from 13.94 per cent in the forty-sixth week to 12.89 per cent in the fifty-first week, and then rose to 13.36 per cent in the fifty-second week; the average index numbers for these three weeks, respectively, were 56.9, 31, and 43.4. I n seven of the ten years the ratio for the fifty-first week and t h a t for the fiftysecond week were lower than the ratio for the forty-sixth week; and likewise in seven years the ratio for the fiftysecond week was higher than t h a t for the fifty-first week. The forty-sixth week had three index numbers below 50, the fifty-first week had eight, and the fifty-second week had five. There accordingly seems to be a considerable tendency for a decline in the percentage of reserves from the fore part of November to the next to the last week in December, followed by an advance in the last week. NEW ORLEANS. (Charts X and XI, Tables VII and 7.) New Orleans has been chosen as the representative city for the Southern States. I t is an important cotton, sugar, lumber, and rice center, has a substantial manufacturing business, in most years has the largest export trade of any city in the United States except New York, and affords more complete banking and financial statistics than most of the southern cities. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. T A B L E V I I . — S e a s o n a l variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, Average figures 1899-1908.a 41 of the New Orleans clearing-house banks. [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1899-1908 Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie and legal tenders.) 1899-1908 Ratio of reserves to deposits. Month and week. Average index number. Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie and legal tenders.) Ratio of reserv sto deposits. Month and week. Average index number. w •2 * 'U'M . III Jan.—1.. 2.. 3.. 4.. Feb.—5.. 6.. 7.. 8.. Mar.—9.. 10.. 11.. 12.. Apr.—13. 14. 15. 16. 17. May—18. 19. 20. 21. June—22. 23. 24, 25. July—26. 39.5 39.0 38.6 38.0 37.8 37.8 37.5 37.3 37.0 36.7 36.6 36.6 36.5 36.3 36.3 37.1 37.0 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.9 36.8 36.9 37.1 37.2 37.3 43.4 37.0 33.5 27.5 25.5 26.5 25.0 23.7 18.4 17.7 16.3 16.6 16.1 16.0 16.1 19.6 18.6 16.0 17.3 17.5 17.3 15.3 16.9 18.7 19.7 20.2 43.3 43.9 44.1 44.2 44.4 44.7 44.3 44.1 44.1 43.8 43.9 43.7 43.2 43.0 42.9 43.5 43.0 43.0 42.5 42.2 41.9 41.6 41.7 41.8 42.1 42.3 47.6 56.6 59.7 62.3 63.5 65.9 63.9 64.6 66.0 63.8 63.6 60.5 55.5 52.9 52.8 53.3 46.0 44.8 39.4 34.7 31.7 27.5 27.4 27.9 30.8 30.8 6.3 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.3 69.5 84.4 80.6 68.6 64.0 54.8 54.9 57.2 63.9 57.7 56.2 47.6 38.8 30.3 33.7 33.7 32.2 26.1 22.2 26.9 32.5 35.5 26.0 25.6 31.1 33.9 Perct. 15.44 16.22 15.95 15.16 14.78 14.20 14.38 14.38 14.53 14.15 14.07 13.65 13.23 12.70 12.81 12.73 12.66 12.32 12.21 12.65 13.03 13.30 12.66 12.64 12.92 13.10 73.6 85.7 80.4 67.4 61.6 51.2 52.9 54.8 60.8 55.2 53.9 46.9 40.2 32.0 34.7 33.7 34.3 28.7 27.3 33.9 40.6 45.0 34.7 34.8 40.0 42.8 26.4 14.3 19.6 32.6 38.4 48.8 47.1 45.2 39.2 44.8 46.1 53.1 59.8 68.0 65.3 66.3 65.7 71.3 72.7 66.1 59.4 55.0 65.3 65.2 60.0 57.2 III July—27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.—31. 32. 33. 34. Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.—40. 41. 42. 43. Nov.—44. 45. 46. 47. Dec—48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 37.6 37.6 37.8 38.1 38.2 38.4 38.8 38.8 39.1 39.5 40.0 40.5 41.1 41.6 42.0 42.6 42.8 43.2 43.4 43.5 43.3 43.0 42.8 42.8 42.9 42.8 23.7 25.8 28.6 30.5 31.4 34.2 37.7 37.9 41.3 45.5 50.8 57.3 65.5 71.6 75.8 81.7 82.9 85.9 87.0 88.0 84.7 80.2 77.7 77.4 78.8 78.8 42.0 42.0 41.6 41.3 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.2 41.4 41.0 41.1 41.1 41.0 41.5 41.9 41.9 41.9 42.4 42.6 43.2 43.2 43.6 43.9 44.6 44.5 44.8 33.8 33.9 28.2 24.1 22.9 21.6 24.1 23.2 23.7 19.5 21.2 21.6 19.9 25.4 31.1 31.0 31.9 35.0 39.1 48.5 48.7 54.7 57.9 68.3 68.5 71.1 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 45.6 38.5 38.9 38.3 39.5 31.9 30.2 26.5 37.3 22.6 17.4 15.5 17.2 24.8 24.2 22.5 20.0 21.3 17.3 33.7 34.0 33.2 29.2 38.1 43.9 47.0 Per ct. 13.72 13.41 13.39 13.29 13.65 13.29 13.08 12.74 13.21 12.49 12.32 12.30 12.43 12.65 12.59 12.36 12.27 12.32 11.99 12.72 12.79 12.57 12.13 12.66 12.99 12.93 53.5 46.7 48.9 48.0 51.8 44.5 40.9 36.8 46.6 32.7 27.4 25.8 27.8 33.5 31.3 28.9 26.2 25.8 20.7 34.0 35.8 31.5 26.1 33.0 39.4 41.2 46.5 53.3 51.1 52.0 48.2 55.5 59.1 63.2 53.4 67.3 72.6 74.2 72.2 66.5 68.7 71.1 73.8 74.2 79.3 66.0 64.2 53.5 73.9 67.0 60.6 58.8 a Figures by weeks for the individual years are given in Table 7 of the Appendix (pp. 270-274). These bank figures, particularly those for ratios of reserves to deposits, upon which chief reliance is placed, give evidence of fairly pronounced and regularly occurring seasonal movements in the relative demand for loanable capital. The first movement of importance (which is a continuation of one begun about two months earlier) is a decline in the relative demand in the second week of the year. Average reserves rose from $6,300,000 in the first week to $6,700,000 in the second week, while the average index number rose from 69.5 to 84.4. I n every one of the ten years the amount of reserves was higher in the second week than in the first. Deposits were increasing at this time and loans were decreasing. The ratio of reserves to deposits showed an increase every year in the second week. The average ratio rose from 15.44 per cent to 16.22 per cent, and the average index number from 73.6 to 85.7—making the second week the week of highest ratio of reserves to deposits in the year. In five of the ten years the maximum percentage of reserves for the year occurred in the second week. This January decline in the relative demand for loanable capital, although stopping several weeks earlier than the January decline in New York City, Chicago, and St. Louis, is probably due principally to the same causes a as the decline in those cities. At this time of the year there is a strong flow of cash to New Orleans from the tributary towns and agricultural districts, the crop-moving demand being over; and there is likewise a strong return flow of cash from the Southern States to New York City and to the Middle Western States. 6 This return flow of cash from the country districts of the West and South naturally reaches New Orleans earlier than it does the more eastern cities and is less readily absorbed there than it is in cities like New York and Chicago. Beginning with the middle of January and extending until the forepart of May, the relative demand for moneyed capital in New Orleans increases almost steadily— the only important exception being a minor decline for about three weeks in February and March (sixth to ninth weeks). aCf. p. 28. b Cf. Charts XXXII and XXIV, and pp. 108,109,114. M CHART XI. "1 >?—*SEASONAL fysx VARIATIONS 'in the n c— RESERVES AND RATIOS OF RESERVES-TO \cf'0\ . Wgfrfc i& jvtontbs h. January DEFOSITS D of the NEW ORLEANS \Februarg\ .JO _ March CLE/?RIIV<? HOUSE Jtprif Jo May BANKS, 2S June *- Average Reserves Average Index Numbers of Reserves. 100 Average Ratios of Reserves fo Deposit Average Index Numbers of Ratios of Reserves fo Deposits. 10 Reverse of Average Index Numbers of\ Ratios of Reserves fo Deposifs s 3o 1 Ja/u I ? I /logusf . *° *s / ^° {September] Ocfojber \/Yovefn6<sr\Peceinbet x/a/7. (43) frfegfl \MenfhA 44 NATIONAL MONE^TARY COMMISSION. The evidence for the extent and regularity of this movement may be summarized as follows: Average reserves fell from $6,700,000 in the second week to $4,900,000 in the nineteenth week (forepart of May), the average index number falling from 84.4 to 22.2. In every one of the ten years the amount of reserves was much lower for the nineteenth week than for the second. The lowest index number for the second week was 30.6 and the second lowest was 76.2; the highest index number for the nineteenth week was 42.8, and eight index numbers for the nineteenth week were lower than the minimum of the second week. The decline in reserves at this time is therefore both pronounced and regular in occurrence. Loans declined from the second week to the fifteenth, rose slightly in the sixteenth, and continued at a low level for about two months thereafter. Deposits rose from the beginning of the year to the sixth week, and then declined with a few slight interruptions until fall. Turning to our principal criterion, we find the average ratio of reserves to deposits falling from 16.22 per cent in the second week to 12.21 per cent in the nineteenth week, and the average index number of ratios of reserves to deposits falling from 85.7 to 27.3. In every one of the ten years the percentage of reserves was much lower in the nineteenth week than in the second. Seven index numbers in the nineteenth week were lower than the minimum index number (41.6) of the second week; nine index numbers in the second week were higher than the maximum (48.4) of the nineteenth week. The evidence therefore points clearly to an increase in the relative demand for moneyed capital from the middle of January to the forepart of May, with the possible exception of a brief period the latter part of February and the forepart of March, at which time there is a slight relaxation. The cause for this almost continuously increasing demand upon the reserves is difficult to explain, for business in New Orleans is normally relatively quiet during the first half of the year. I n addition to such obvious explanations as spring demands of farmers, the spring increase in railroad traffic, and the demands for April 1 disbursements, it is probable t h a t an important cause in the decline in reserves and ratios of reserves to deposits during much of this period is the transfer of funds to New York, Chicago, or St. Louis for temporary investment or for deposit at interest. A reference to Charts X X X I I and X X I V shows that the Southern States make considerable shipments of cash to New York City in April and May, and to Middle Western States in March, April, and May. The " h a r d e n i n g " of the New Orleans money market during the first five months of the year may therefore be due more to a decrease in the supply of funds than to an increase in local demands. The third general seasonal movement in the relative demand for moneyed capital in New Orleans is the summer decline beginning the forepart of May (nineteenth week), reaching its low point early in July (twenty-seventh week), and continuing at a low level until the commencement of the crop-moving demand, the forepart of August (thirty-first week). During this period the average amount of reserves was comparatively low, the extreme amounts being $4,900,000 in the nineteenth week and $5,600,000 in the twenty-seventh week, and the corresponding index numbers being 22.2 and 45.6. I n the thirty-first week the average index number was 39.5; and the reserves of this week were larger than those of the nineteenth week in seven of the ten years, in two years the reserves for these two weeks were the same. Loans remained at a low level from the nineteenth to the thirty-first week, with a small upward tendency during the latter p a r t of the period; deposits continued low, with a downward movement during both the early and the latter part of the period. Ratios of reserves to deposits moved upward, with b u t one interruption (twenty-third week), until they reached their high summer level the forepart of July (twentyseventh week), at about which level they continued for five weeks. The average ratio of reserves to deposits rose from 12.21 per cent in the nineteenth week to 13.65 per cent in the thirty-first week, the average index number rising from 27.3 to 51.8. The percentage of reserves to deposits was higher in the thirty-first week than in the nineteenth week in every year b u t one (1907). Six index numbers in the thirty-first week were higher than the maximum of the nineteenth week (48.4), while five index numbers in the nineteenth week were lower than the minimum of the thirty-first week (26.2). This increase of reserves in the summer is obviously due largely to the comparative inactivity of the hot months, both in the South and elsewhere. The fourth seasonal movement to note in the New Orleans market is the fall increase in the relative demand for loanable capital, due primarily to the requirements for moving the crops, but also to increased activity in local business following the close of the customary vacation • period. From the first of August (thirty-first week) to the fore part of November (forty-fifth week) the amount of reserves fluctuates considerably, but with a general downward tendency. The average amount of reserves fell from $5,400,000 in the thirty-first week to $4,800,000 in the forty-fifth, and the average index number from 39.5 to 17.3. I n seven of the ten years the reserves of the forty-fifth week were lower than those of the thirtyfirst. Loans increased rapidly during these weeks, the average amount rising from $38,200,000 in the thirty-first week to $43,400,000 in the forty-fifth, and the average index number from 31.4 to 87. Deposits continued at a low level from the thirty-first week to the thirty-ninth (first of October) and then advanced rapidly, the average amount rising from SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. $41,000,000 in the thirty-ninth week to $42,600,000 in the forty-fifth, and the average index number from 19.9 to 39.1. An increase took place from the thirty-ninth week to the forty-fifth in every year but one. Low and declining reserves accompanied by rapidly rising and high deposits of course mean rapidly declining and low percentages of reserves to deposits. The average percentage of reserves fell from 13.65 in the thirtyfirst week to 11.99 in the forty-fifth, and the average index number of percentages of reserves to deposits fell at the same time from 51.8 to 20.7. In nine years the percentage of reserves was lower in the forty-fifth week than in the thirty-first, the exceptional year having been 1900, when there was a slight rise in the index number (i. e., from 27.6 to 38.5). Eight index numbers in the forty-fifth week were lower than the minimum of the thirty-first week (i. e., 26.2), while six index numbers in the thirty-first week were higher than the maximum of the forty-fifth week (i. e., 43.3). During this period the cotton, sugar, and rice crops are moved, and New Orleans banks are required to meet heavy demands for funds. They call in their reserves deposited elsewhere and borrow heavily in the New York market. At this period, as we shall see later, there are heavy shipments of cash to the South from New York City a and from Chicago. 6 The last period of the year in the New Orleans money market is a period of readjustment and liquidation after the heavy demands of the crop-moving period. I t extends from the fore part of November to the end of the year, and, as we have seen,c continues about two weeks into the new year. These eight weeks are weeks of a comparatively strong but gradually weakening market. Amounts of bank reserves show a strong upward tendency (aside from the usual temporary decline about the first of the month, due to monthly settlements). The average amount of reserves rose from $4,800,000 in the forty-fifth week to $5,600,000 in the fifty-second week, and the average index number from 17.3 to 47.0. In every year but two the reserves were higher in the fiftysecond week than in the forty-fifth. Loans slowly fell during most of this period—although continuing at a high level up to the end of the year—with a Cf. Chart XXXIII, and pp. 78-79. &Cf. Chart XX, and pp. 82-83. c Cf. p. 41. 45 a slight increase just before January disbursements. Deposits increased with only slight interruptions reaching their maximum for the year in the fifty-second week. Reserves increasing more rapidly than deposits resulted in an increase in the percentage of reserves from the fortyfifth week to the end of the year (except for the temporary decline due to December 1 settlements). The average percentage rose from 11.99 in the forty-fifth week to 12.93 in the fifty-second week, and the average index number from 20.7 to 41.2. In seven of the ten years the reserves of the fifty-second week were higher than those of the forty-fifth, and these exceptional years, which were grouped together, were 1901, 1902, and 1903. Five index numbers of the fifty-second week were larger than the maximum of the forty-fifth week (i. e., 43.3). Taking 25 as an arbitrary dividing line, there were seven index numbers in the forty-fifth week below that figure and only four in the fifty-second week. After the crop-moving demand is fairly over cash flows from the near-by territory to the New Orleans banks, piles up in the reserves, and, as we shall see in the next chapter, begins its eastward and northward flow. SAN FRANCISCO. (Charts XII and XIII, and Tables VIII and 8.) The Pacific States are the only geographic section which remains to be studied, and San Francisco, because of its size, and its commercial, industrial, and financial importance, has been selected as its representative city. Unfortunately, many of the city's banking records were destroyed by the earthquake of 1906, and our data are consequently largely limited to the two years 1907 and 1908, an altogether too inadequate a basis for safe generalizations. These data, however, though very limited, will be given for what they are worth, and will be supplemented by opinions concerning seasonal movements obtained directly from San Francisco bankers.^ a San Francisco bankers have been most generous in their replies to the writer's letters of inquiry, and he is indebted particularly to the following persons for valuable assistance: Mr. F. B. Anderson, vicepresident*$f the Bank of California; Mr. F. L. Lipman, of the WellsFargo Nevada National Bank; Mr. J. K. Moffitt, cashier of the First National Bank; and Professors CarlC. Plehnand Wesley C. Mitchell, of the University of California. 46 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. TABLE VIII.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves and the ratio of reserves to deposits of the clearing-house banks of San Average figures0 for the years 1907 and 1908. Francisco. [Amount expressed in millions of dollars. J 1907-1908 1907-1908 Loans. Deposits. Month and week. o a o3 <x> 60 Jan.—1 2.. 3 4 Feb.—5 6 7 8 Mar.—9 10. 11 12 Apr.—13.. 14 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21. •Tune—22 23 24 25 J U Jy_26 X <u a 3 <D 60 03 CD > < < 93.1 92.7 92.6 92.2 91.7 91.2 89.7 89.4 87.7 87.6 89.3 88.7 89.3 89.4 89.3 89.1 88.6 88.0 86.8 86.6 85.8 85.6 85.8 86.1 86.0 85.5 98.5 93.4 91.3 85.9 83.4 80.4 67.6 63.2 44.8 42.0 59.7 55.9 58.4 57.0 57.1 57.0 51.8 48.4 42.7 41.3 32.7 32.5 35.9 39.7 40.9 37.6 "a § 1 a> SP > < 115.0 113.4 113.5 113.6 113.5 112.4 110.7 110.1 109.9 108.9 107.4 105.5 105.7 104.6 104.7 104.6 104.3 102.4 101.2 101.0 100.8 101.6 100.5 100.4 100.9 101.3 1 < 67.3 64.8 66.2 67.1 63.2 55.5 49.5 46.6 50.5 47.6 42.2 38.0 37.1 38.2 41.1 38.9 39.5 29.9 26.4 28.4 27.9 31.8 30.3 29.5 33.3 37.2 Reserves (specie and legal tenders). Ratio of reserves to deposits. Average index number. a o I go > 17.6 18.1 18.7 18.7 17.0 17.1 16.5 15.4 14.5 14.8 14.3 15.0 15.9 14.6 14.7 15.2 15.1 13.2 14.0 13.7 14.2 15.1 13.8 14.3 14.8 16.0 M a> Loans. Month and week. a g .2 "o3 u CP 8P > < 80.4 88.3 96.9 97.7 70.5 72.2 62.3 45.8 31.4 36.2 28.8 39.8 54.3 34.5 35.3 43.8 42.4 12.6 25.7 20.0 28.4 42.0 22.3 29.8 37.7 55.6 > < Per ct. 15.18 16.64 17.16 17.18 15.52 15.72 15.33 14.28 13.46 13.90 13.70 14.63 15.52 14.39 14.39 14.98 14.94 13.35 14.12 13.88 14.43 15.16 14.02 14.56 14.96 16.05 i C D _ 6 03 42.0 60.4 66.8 66.9 46.9 48.1 43.5 30.2 21.1 26.5 24.9 36.0 46.3 33.4 33.3 40.4 40.4 22.5 29.0 27.6 33.6 41.5 28.7 34.5 39.7 52.7 >> CD 111 58.0 39.6 33.2 33.1 53.1 51.9 56.5 69.8 78.9 73.5 75.1 64.0 53.7 66.6 66.7 59.6 59.6 77.5 71.0 72.4 66.4 58.5 71.3 65.5 60.3 47.3 SP > < If u cu <x> If S3 > < 60 03 July—27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.—40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec.—48 49 50 51 52 CL> > < 85.6 40.1 85.9 42.7 85.9 42.6 85.7 39.6 85.2 36.7 85.3 35.9 85.7 38.6 85.9 39.4 85.8 37.5 86.1 40.1 86.0 41.9 86.3 44.1 86.0 42.5 85.4 39.7 85.4 38.7 86.0 40.9 85.1 34.8 83.3 24.5 82.6 19.9 82.9 22.4 82.7 23.7 82.1 19.6 81.7 17.5 81.3 16.0 81.7 22.4 82.0 28.9 Ratio of reserves to deposits. £ 1 03 Reserves (specie and legal tenders). a 3 S <u 60 03 +3 Deposits. 102.4 102.3 101.6 101.4 100.7 101.6 103.0 101.5 102.5 101.9 101.8 102.2 103.5 103.6 104.2 105.5 103.8 100.1 98.3 96.8 96.0 94.5 93.4 93.1 93.6 93.4 H cl o3 Average index number. X © 6 03 & 2 f-i CD 60 03 f-i > < > < 44.7 45.4 40.7 42.1 39.5 46.6 54.2 47.5 51.2 49.8 51.1 51.8 58.9 63.2 67.0 69.7 64.0 60.1 55.9 49.6 48.3 40.7 35.6 32.5 37.2 36.8 15.2 16.4 16.1 17.3 16.4 15.8 16.9 15.7 16.4 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.2 15.2 15.5 15.5 14.2 13.4 12.4 13.7 15.0 15.0 14.7 15.4 16.5 16.3 o Figures by weeks for the individual years 1907 and 1908 are given in Table 8 of the Appendix (p. 275). CU > 43.2 62.2 56.9 74.9 61.2 53.2 70.1 51.2 62.5 40.2 50.7 60.2 75.4 43.3 48.4 48.9 28.2 16.3 .0 20.1 40.8 39.4 35.3 45.1 62.0 59.6 cu "o3 -iSi > Per< ct. 15.03 16.21 15.93 17.12 16.36 15.72 16.55 15.60 16.17 14.82 15.52 16.10 16.82 14.71 14.95 14.82 13.76 13.39 12.56 14.04 15.81 15.85 15.79 16.59 17.67 17.55 40.3 53.1 48.1 62.4 54.1 47.9 57.1 47.2 53.2 37.6 47.0 54.5 62.1 35.9 39.9 37.9 25.9 19.7 9.4 26.5 44.1 44.8 43.1 51.8 63.7 62.2 59.7 46.9 51.9 37.6 45.9 52.1 42.9 52.8 46.8 62.4 53.0 45.5 37.9 64.1 60.1 62.1 74.1 80.3 90.6 73.5 55.9 55.2 56.9 48.3 36.8 37.2 CHART XII. (47) CHART XIII. SEASONAL VACATIONS in the RESERVES AND fanos OF RESERVES TO DEPOSITS ofthe "SAN FRANCISCO CLEARING HOUSE BANKS. 1101 and l<?08 (48) A c— D~ •Average Reserves Average Index Numbers of Reserves A Average Ratios of Reserves fo Depositk Average Index Numbers of Ratios of Reserves fo Deposi/sr\ Reverse of Average Index. Numbers of Ratios of Reserves to Oepasifs\ SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. The first movement to note is the usual January decline in the relative demand for moneyed capital, which in San Francisco extends throughout January. Average amounts of reserves increased from $17,600,000 in the first week to $18,700,000 in the fourth week. In 1907 the index number increased from 92.5 to 98.5, and in 1908 from 68.3 to 96.8. Average loans during January declined and average deposits remained about constant. In 1907 deposits declined slightly from the first week to the fourth, and in 1908 they advanced slightly. Ratios of reserves to deposits advanced during January. The average ratio rose from 15.18 per cent in the first week to 17.18 per cent in the fourth; the index number rose in 1907 from 27.7 to 34.3, and in 1908 from 56.3 to 99.5. The testimony of several representative bankers in San Francisco supports the above evidence. The declining and comparatively weak money market in January is explainable on largely the same grounds as the similar markets at this time for the other cities studied. a There is a natural reaction after the strain of the crop movements, holiday trade, and January 1 settlements. Advances which have been made for the movement of general crops up and down the Pacific coast are being repaid rapidly. California purchases from the East a large part of its holiday supplies, and the settlement of these eastern accounts results in the accumulation of cash in the banks in January. 6 The second seasonal movement in San Francisco is a progressive " hardening" of the money market until nearly the middle of March. The amount of bank reserves declined in 1907 from $17,900,000 in the fourth week to $15,400,000 in the ninth week, and to $14,300,000 in the eleventh week, the index number declining at the same time from 98.5 to 61.2, and then to 44.8 in the eleventh week. In 1908 the amount declined from $19,500,000 in the fourth week to $13,500,000 in the ninth week and then advanced to $14,200,000 in the eleventh week; the corresponding index numbers being 96.8, 1.6, and 12.7. Accompanying this striking decline in the amounts of reserves there was an almost equally striking decline in loans, and a pronounced decline in deposits. Average loans fell from $92,200,000 in the fourth week to $87,600,000 in the tenth week (forepart of March), the average index numbers falling from 85.9 to 42; average deposits fell from $113,600,000 in the fourth week to $108,900,000 in the tenth, the average index number falling from 67.1 to 47.6. For both loans and deposits there was a pronounced decline in both years. The decline in reserves was so much more pronounced than that in deposits that there was a strong decline in a Cf. pp. 28-29. 16065°—11 4 b Cf. pp. 119-121. 49 the percentage of reserves to deposits. In 1907 this percentage fell from 13.31 in the fourth week to 11.80 in the ninth, the corresponding index numbers being 34.3 and 19.2; in 1908 the percentage declined from 21.04 to 15.12, the corresponding index numbers being 99.5 and 22.9. There are a number of forces at work bringing about this result, several of which are forces which we have found responsible for the spring advance in money market demands in New York C i t y a and the other cities studied, such as the natural reaction and readjustment after the January decline, and the early spring demands of agriculturists; for California, however, one of the most important causes appears to be local in character, and is connected with California's tax system. The California law b taxes money on hand and solvent credits as of the first Monday in March of each year. " O n tax day," writes Prof. Carl C. Plehn "all state banks try to be denuded of coin or currency ('currency' means paper money in California usage) because it is taxable. They have to get it away long enough before the first Monday in March so that it can not be said to have been sent on purpose to evade taxes. The amount is about $10,000,000." There is, moreover, a strong effort on the part of taxpayers to discharge eastern obligations, and to get movable funds out of the State before returns are made to the tax assessor. A reference to Chart X X X I and to Table I X (pp. 61, 65, 75) will show that February shipments of cash from the Pacific States are relatively large. The third period is one of an easier money market; it begins about the middle of March and continues until the last of April, interrupted by a temporarily "hardening" market at the time of quarterly disbursements, April 1. a Cf. pp. 28-29. & The law provides: "The assessor must, between the first Monday of March and July in each year, ascertain the names of all taxable inhabitants and all property in his county subject to taxation * * * and must assess such property to the persons by whom it was owned or claimed, or in whose possession or control it was at twelve o'clock m. of the first Monday of March next preceding. * * * In assessing solvent credits not secured by mortgage or trust deed, a reduction therefrom shall be made of debts due to bona fide residents of this State." (Sec. 3628.) "Any property willfully concealed, removed, transferred, or misrepresented by the owner or agent thereof, to evade taxation, upon discovery, must be assessed at not exceeding ten times its value, and the assessment so made must not be reduced by the board of supervisors." (Sec. 3648.) Deering's Annotated Codes and Statutes of California. Political Code. Vol. 1, title IX, chap. III. Of course, money on hand and solvent credits in California, as in other States, largely escape taxation under the general property tax, nevertheless there appears to be sufficient danger of their being taxed to induce considerable transfers out of the State, and considerable zeal in paying debts due out of the State, prior to assessment day. Cf. Report of the Commission on Revenue and Taxation of the State of California, 1906. Pp. 56, 57, 222, and 223. 50 NATIONAL MONErTARY COMMISSION. In 1907 reserves increased from $14,300,000 in the eleventh week to $15,800,000 in the thirteenth week, dropped to $13,900,000 in the fourteenth week (about the 1st of April), and stood at t h a t figure in the seventeenth week; the index numbers corresponding to these three amounts were, respectively, 44.8, 67.2, and 38.8. I n 1908 reserves rose from $14,200,000 in the eleventh week to $16,000,000 in the thirteenth week, dropped to $15,300,000 in the fourteenth week, and then rose to $16,300,000 in the seventeenth week; the index numbers corresponding to these four amounts were, respectively, 12.7, 41.3, 30.2, and 46. Loans increased about the middle of March and then remained at a moderately high level for about a month. The general tendency of deposits was downward from the fore part of March to the latter part of April. Shortly after assessment day (the first Monday in March) the percentage of reserves to deposits increases. From the eleventh week to the thirteenth this percentage rose from 11.29 to 12.75 in 1907, the index number rising from 14.1 to 28.7; in 1908 the percentage rose from 16.11 to 18.28, the index number rising from 35.7 to 63.8. Both years then showed a decline to the fourteenth week (about the 1st of April) and an advance to a higher level in the fifteenth week. This apparent easing up of the money market is to a considerable extent fictitious, representing merely a readjustment after the changes made anticipatory of assessment day. Another factor of importance at this time is the fact that the latter part of March or early part of April, the last of the advances against grain are usually settled. The fourth seasonal period in San Francisco is one of a comparatively strong money market, extending from about the last of April to the latter part of June. I t is a period of low reserves, low deposits, and low loans. From the seventeenth to the twenty-fifth week average weekly reserves varied between $13,200,000 and $15,100,000. I n fifteen of the eighteen weeks (that is nine weeks in each year), the amount being below $15,000,000, the average weekly index numbers of reserves varied between 12.6 and 42.4; fifteen of the eighteen index numbers during the two years being below 40. In both years there was a sharp decline in the amount of reserves in the eighteenth week (about the 1st of May). . Average loans declined from $88,600,000 in the seventeenth week to $86,000,000 in the twenty-fifth, the average index number falling from 51.8 to 40.9; while average deposits declined from $104,300,000 in the seventeenth week to $100,900,000 in the twenty-fifth, the average index number falling from 39.5 to 33.3, and the principal drop being in the eighteenth week. Ratios of reserves to deposits fell sharply in the eighteenth week and fluctuated at a low level until the twenty-fifth week. In 1907 the ratio fell from 11.67 per cent in the seventeenth week to 9.88 per cent in the eighteenth, and the index number from 17.9 to 0; in 1908 the ratio fell from 18.21 to 16.82, and the index number from 62.9 to 44.9. Of the eighteen index numbers for these weeks during the two years the extremes were 0 and 54.9, and fourteen were below 45, showing that these were normally weeks of low percentages of reserves. Why do the demands upon the reserves increase so abruptly about the last of April and remain relatively heavy until the latter part of June ? The sharp drop in the eighteenth week is apparently due to the local demand for money at t h a t time to cover the second installment of state and county taxes on real property, which become delinquent the last Monday in April. 0 The annual fruit-packing business begins in May, and there is said to be a considerable demand for funds at about that time on the part of the large canneries for the purchase of sugar and tin and other supplies. Another important demand for funds in May and June is said to come from fishing companies, which make advances to fishermen who are going on a trip of three or four months' duration, to pay for their outfits. Mr. F . B . Anderson, president of the Bank of California, to whom I am indebted for much of my information concerning the San Francisco money market, says that there is one fishing company alone which expends annually about $2,500,000 in its outfit and advances for crews. June is, moreover, a month of considerable shipments of cash to the Eastern States required to meet the semiannual payments of interest on bonds arid other securities. The fifth period extends from about the last of June to about the last of September. Like the summer months in New York and Chicago, it is a period of a comparatively weak money market. Loans remain fairly constant at a low level, while deposits show a marked upward tendency. During this period the amounts of reserves were high— much higher than in the preceding period. The average reserve of the period from the seventeenth to the twentyfifth week of the two years was $14,200,000. while that of the period from the twenty-sixth to the thirty-ninth week was $16,200,000; the corresponding average index numbers for the two periods were 29 and 58.4. Average ratios of reserves to deposits fluctuated considerably during these fourteen weeks, but at a moderately high level. Of the twenty-eight weekly index numbers of ratios of reserves to deposits during this period (for the two years) nineteen were above 40 and nine were below. oCf. Statutes of California 1897, ch. 267, p. 431, sec. 3746. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. The average weekly ratio for the period from the twenty-sixth week to the thirty-ninth week, inclusive, of the two years was 16, as compared with 14.38 for the period from the seventeenth week to the twentyfifth week, inclusive. A sharp advance in the percentage of reserves took place from the thirty-sixth to the thirty-ninth week, the average percentage rising from 14.82 to 16.82, and the average index number from 37.6 to 62.1. This upward movement took place in both years and was preceded by a rather sharp decline. The reasons for the relatively small demand for loanable capital during this period are in part as follows: These are the warm months of the year in San Francisco and vicinity, the highest mean temperature being recorded in September. I t is the time preceding the active crop-moving period. At this time, moreover, large supplies of gold bullion are deposited at the San Francisco mint and the coin proceeds made available for local demands. a Banks' loanable funds are increased during this period through payments made for tea imports which are received in July and September. About the 1st of June the plantations, which are said to handle several hundred thousand tons of sugar brought in from Hawaii every year, are out of debt and begin to have large credit balances in the banks. On the other hand, the California hay and grain harvests are in full swing by about the middle of July. The ships return from the fisheries in August and September, and on arrival large sums of money are necessary in order to pay the crews. Demands are also made upon the banks at this time to finance the green-fruit trade. This trade continues through May, June, July, August, and September, and is at its height in July and August. Drafts against green-fruit shipments, as likewise those against fish shipments, are usually honored at the eastern distributing points upon the arrival of the cars, and San Francisco bankers' balances in the East are thereby considerably built up. 6 These demands upon the San Francisco banks are, however, more than offset by the above-mentioned influences, with the result that from the last of June to the last of September the San Francisco money market is normally relatively weak. The sixth seasonal period in San Francisco is the cropmoving period and extends from the last of September until the latter part of November. I t is a period of rapidly increasing or large demand for moneyed capital. The amounts of reserves decline rapidly from the thirty-ninth week to the forty-fifth. In 1907 the decline a Cf. Chart XLI, and p. 118 and note a. & Cf. figures given in the Comptroller's reports from year to year for deposits of San Francisco national banks with reserve agents at the dates of the different calls for reports. 51 was from $14,700,000, with an index number of 50.7, to $11,300,000, with an index number of 0; while in 1908 it was from $19,700,000, with an index number of 100, to $13,400,000, with an index number of 0. Loans continue at the same level as during the preceding period for about three weeks (thirty-ninth to forty-second week) and then drop sharply. Deposits show an upward tendency during the first three weeks, and then decline rapidly. Ratios of reserves to deposits at this time fall to their lowest point in the year. In 1907 the decline was from 13.44 per cent in the thirty-ninth week, with an index number of 35.6 to 11.76 per cent in the forty-fifth week, with an index number of 18.8; and in 1908 from 20.20 per cent, with an index number of 88.6, to 13.35 per cent, with an index number of 0. -| A number of forces are at work tightening up the San Francisco money market during this period. October 1 settlements make a considerable demand for funds. The California hay and grain harvests extend through October. Grain movements from the Northwestern States, which are largely financed from San Francisco, begin in September and are active in October and November. In October and November take place the movements of dried fruits, such as raisins, prunes, apricots, and the like; also movements of canned fruits. This trade results in large amounts of coin being drawn out of the banks for use in the country. At this time, when the demand for funds is at its greatest, the California tax system imposes an additional burden on the money market. An installment of state and county taxes is due in October and becomes delinquent the last Monday in November. a Inasmuch as these taxes are payable in gold coin, their payment leads to heavy demands upon bank reserves. The burden is made doubly heavy by the local independent treasury system. a I n November/' writes a prominent San Francisco banker, " t h e tax collector for the city and county of San Francisco withdraws about $6,500,000 of actual coin from circulation and locks it up in the vaults of the city hall. You no doubt will have noticed that this tremendous withdrawal of the circulating medium from the channels of trade occurs at the period when the demand for money is greatest." This hardship has been overcome to a certain extent by the law of February 28, 1907,6 allowing the deposit of public funds in banks against proper securities. The average monthly amount of cash in state vaults for the fiscal year 1906 was $4,342,054, and for 1907 was $5,423,247. For 1908, the first year of the operation of the new law, it was $2,626,511, while the average monthly amount in banks for 1908 was $2,901,062. « Cf. Statutes of California, Political Code, sees. 3746 and 3756. & Statutes of California, 1907, chapter 50. 52 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. The evil is furthermore somewhat mitigated by the facilities afforded by the mint for transfers of gold to San Francisco through deposits made at other mints and sub treasury offices. The supply of funds at this time is also affected by the fact that many California gold mines have to be shut down during the fall on account of lack of water supply. This period of very active demands for funds is naturally one in which largest shipments of cash are made to California by the Eastern and Middle Western States. a The seventh and last seasonal period in the San Francisco money market covers the last few weeks in the year, and begins anywhere from the latter part of November to the middle of December, according to the lateness of the season. I t is a period of reaction and decline after the strong market of the preceding period. Mr. F . B. Anderson, president of the Bank of California, writes: " T h e height of the demand for money, as a rule, is in the latter part of November—sometimes as late as the middle of December. From t h a t time on, the demand decreases very rapidly." This decline is liable to be interrupted by a temporary advance just preceding the time of January 1 settlements. Both loans and deposits decline or remain at a low figure during these weeks. The amount of reserves tends strongly upward, beginning its upward movement before the middle of November, according to the figures for 1907 and 1908, and continuing with slight interruption until the end of the year. In 1907 the reserve rose from $11,300,000 with an index number of 0 in the forty-fifth week, to $15,700,000 with an index number of 65.7 in the forty-ninth week, and to $17,800,000 with an index number of 97 in the fifty-second week; in 1908 the reserve rose from $13,400,000 in the forty-fifth week, with an index number of 0, to $13,700,000 in the forty-ninth week with an index number of 4.8, and to $14,800,000 in the fifty-second week, with an index number of 22.2. Ratios of reserves to deposits rose rapidly during the latter weeks of the year. I n 1907 the ratio rose from 11.76 per cent in the forty-fifth week with an index number of 18.8, to 17.39 per cent in the forty-ninth week with an index number of 75.2, and to 19.84 per cent in the fifty-second week with an index number of 99.7; in 1908 the ratio rose from 13.35 per cent in the forty-fifth week, with an index number of 0, to 14.19 per cent in the forty-ninth week, with an index number of 10.9, and to 15.26 per cent in the fifty-second week, with an index number of 24.7. This clearly marked weakening of the money market during the last few weeks of the year, is obviously due to a decline in the crop-moving demands which dominate «Cf. pp. 62,63,66, and 67. the preceding period, both in the Pacific States and other sections of the country, and to the repayment of advances made during t h a t period. REDISCOUNTS. The practice of rediscounting commercial paper which is so common in Europe is generally looked upon with disfavor in the United States, and rediscounts in this country are of little importance. I t is an interesting fact, however, that the very small amount of rediscounting reported by national banks shows a rather strong seasonal swing, the tendency being for rediscounts to be largest in the fall and early winter when the cropmoving requirements impose their heavy burdens upon the money market. For the thirty-nine years, 1870-1908, the average rediscounts of national banks outstanding at the dates of the Comptroller's five reports a were as follows: 6 First report, $6,214,000; second report, $6,684,000; third report, $7,465,000; fourth report, $9,781,000; and fifth report, $8,625,000. Of the thirty-nine years the fourth report showed the largest amount of rediscounts (of any of the five reports) in nineteen years, the fifth report showed the largest amount in fifteen years, the second and third reports, each, in two years, and the fifth report in one year. This completes our study of seasonal variations in the demand for moneyed capital relative to the supply in different sections of the country as evidenced by interest rates, bank reserves, and certain other bank data. Our next task is to study the seasonal variations in the value of money in different sections of the country relative to each other. CHAPTER IV.—SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE KELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY IN D I F F E R E N T SECTIONS O F THE COUNTRY. In the last chapter an attempt was made to learn something of the extent and regularity of seasonal variations in the demand for moneyed capital (or loanable capital) relative to the supply in certain representative cities, considered more or less independently; in this chapter it is the interrelation of the different sections of the country that is primarily under consideration, and the relativity is not, as in the preceding chapter, so much the relativity of demand to supply as t h a t of the demand in one section of the country compared with the demand a Cf. Annual Report of the Comptroller of the Currency, 1909, pp. 369-395. & The following figures are based largely upon a report on the subject of " Rediscounting by National Banks 1870-1909" prepared as a class exercise by Mr. W. I. Galland, a student of mine. In computing averages the last three figures were omitted from the amounts as given by the Comptroller. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. in another. I t is not, moreover, so much moneyed capital in the broad sense of the term (covering money and loanable credits), that we are concerned with here as that part of moneyed capital commonly called money ° or cash. Obviously it is impossible and undesirable to draw a sharp distinction between the phenomena studied in these two chapters, because of their close relationship and interdependence; and the two chapters should be read together as parts of the broader subject of seasonal variations in the demand for capital. In this chapter the principal criteria used are domestic exchange rates and currency shipments. Domestic exchange rates are given for at least one city in each important geographic section of the country except New England. The principle underlying this part of the study is the simple one that money, like any other commodity, seeks the best market, or, to use the excellent expression of Ricardo, it flows from the places where it is relatively redundant to the places where it is relatively scarce. Demand exchange rates 6 in one city on another express the value of money in the second city in terms of that in the first. A selling rate, for example, of 40 premium in Chicago for bank drafts on New York City means that it costs a purchaser $1,000.40 in Chicago to buy the right to $1,000 cash in New York City, and that money is accordingly cheap in Chicago (i. e., relatively redundant) as compared with money in New York City; a selling rate, on the other hand, of 40 discount means that it costs $999.60 in Chicago to buy the right to draw $1,000 cash in New York City, and that money is accordingly dear (or relatively scarce) in Chicago as compared with New York City. As money grows cheaper in Chicago relatively to New York it approaches the shipping point at which it becomes profitable to ship it to New York; as it grows dearer in Chicago relatively to New York it approaches the opposite shipping point, at which it becomes profitable to ship money from New York to Chicago. I t is such changes in the relative value of money, or the relative demand for money, that we have in mind in this chapter and not changes in the interest or discount rates. Of course high interest rates and low exchange rates in the different cities on New York are liable to accompany each other, and may be caused largely by the same influences. Interest rates, however (and also prices), in 53 two places may rise or fall pari passu, with no change in the relationship to each other of the two markets. New York City and the Eastern States will be used as the basis for comparisons, and the following geographic sections will be studied (in the order named) in their relations to New York City and the Eastern States, and in their relations to each other: (1) New England States, (2) Middle Western States, including special studies of the city of Chicago and the city of St. Louis, (3) Southern States, including a special study of the city of New Orleans, (4) Western States, and (5) Pacific States, including a special study of San Francisco. a A final section will then be devoted to the currency receipts and shipments of New York City. Figures for currency receipts and shipments are based principally upon replies received to a circular of inquiry sent by the National Monetary Commission through the office of the Comptroller of the Currency to the managers of the clearing houses. The circular requested reports of shipments and receipts of cash to and from points outside of the States in which the respective cities were located. The information was requested for monthly figures for the four years 1905-1908. The circular was sent to all cities of 50,000 population and over (of which there were 91 in 1907, with a total population of 20,894,278), and to some of the smaller cities doing a large banking business. Reports were received from the clearing house associations or from individual banks of 32 cities. Out of the reports received from these 32 cities only those coming from 26 cities could be used. Of these 26 cities 4 had a population of less than 50,000 each, 5 with a total population of 155,290. Including these the population of the 26 cities from which usable reports were received was 12,392,541. I n most cases summary reports were made by the clearing house for all banks in the clearing house association. Such summary reports were desired from all the cities, but in some the clearing houses adopted the method of sending in the individual reports of part of the banks or of having the banks themselves send them. The Chicago clearing house sent in reports of from eight to ten banks. 0 Of a New England States include Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont; Eastern States include Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania; Southern States include Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, <* Unless otherwise clearly designated by the context, the word money Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virgina; Middle Western States is used in the sense of the term employed by Francis A. Walker—the include Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, popular sense—and explained in his Money in its Relations to Trade and Wisconsin; Western States include Colorado, Kansas, Montana, and Industry, pp. 4-27, and in Kemmerer, Money and Credit InstruNebraska, Oklahoma, and Wyoming; Pacific States include Arizona, ments in Their Relation to General Prices, 2d edition, pp. 25-28. California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, and Washington. &The differences between demand rates and telegraphic transfer &Viz: South Bend, Ind.; Davenport, Iowa; Little Rock, Ark.; Lexrates are for our purposes negligible because of the short time, and ington, Ky. consequently small interest expense, involved in transfers of demand c Reports of receipts: $ banks in 1905, 9 in 1906 and 1907. Reports paper. of shipments: 9 banks in 1905 and 1906,10 in 1907 and 1908. 54 NATIONAL MONKTARY COMMISSION. the reports sent in by the Lexington (Ky.) clearing house three were only partially filled out; from Norfolk (Va.) only a single bank reported, and that one only for shipments; from South Bend (Ind.) only one bank reported; and from San Francisco 11 to 14 reported.** If the figures for currency receipts and shipments were complete for all States, obviously the total amount shipped would be identical with the total amount received, and the shipments of State A to State B would be identical with the receipts of State B from State A. Inasmuch as with few exceptions, only banks in cities of 50,000 population or over were called upon to report, and as our data are very incomplete for those banks, there is no such identity between reported receipts and reported shipments. Receipts reported by State B from State A may be included wholly, only in part, or not at all in the shipments to State B reported by State A. The differences between reported receipts of a State from another State and shipments by t h a t other State to the first State are^so great t h a t it seems best to treat the receipts and the shipments separately as independent evidence, instead of as two sides of the same currency transfer which undoubtedly they are to some extent. Inasmuch as the figures cover only the short period of four years, the basis they offer for generalizations concerning seasonal tendencies is very meager, and conclusions based upon them must be considered tentative. The figures are given by States for each year in Table 9 of the appendix. Summaries by geographic sections appear in Table I X (pp. 56-75). Index numbers were computed in the manner described on pages 13-15, 22, and average index numbers for the different sections of the country are presented in diagram form in the charts of this chapter. Figures for domestic exchange rates were collected under the supervision of Mr. Fred I. Kent, vice-president of the Bankers Trust Company, of New York. The rates, which are the " l o w " selling rates for each week for demand drafts, are not nominal rates but rates at which the actual exchange business was done. I n the various cities the rates were compiled by the following persons: Chicago, Mr. C. P . Clifford, assistant manager of the foreign exchange department of the First National Bank; St. Louis, Mr. J. A. Lewis, cashier of the National Bank of Commerce; New Orleans, Mr. L. M. Pool, vice-president of the Hibernia Bank and Trust Company, and Rudolph Hecht, assistant manager of the foreign exchange department of the First National Bank; San Francisco, Mr. F. W. Wolfe, cashier of the San Francisco National Bank. a Reports of receipts: 13 banks in 1906 and 1908, 14 in 1907. Reports of shipments: 12 banks in 1906, 11 in 1907, 13 in 1908. NEW ENGLAND STATES. Our data concerning the New England States are the most meager of those for any section, being limited to the currency receipts and shipments of the clearing-house banks of Boston, Worcester, and Providence, and the reported shipments to and receipts from New England by banks outside of the New England States. Taking these data together, and interpreting them in the light of other evidence collected, and of the opinions of a number of representative bankers, we may draw the following conclusions: New England's receipts of cash from other sections of the country and shipments of cash to other sections are limited almost entirely to the Eastern States and the Middle Western States; and practically all of the currency movements between New England and the Eastern States are to and from New York City. CURRENCY MOVEMENTS B E T W E E N NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN STATES. (Charts XIV, XV, XVI, and XVII, and Tables IX and 9.) I n considering seasonal currency movements between New England and the Eastern States, a few general facts deserve mention. 0 The distance between New York City and the principal New England cities is very small, and there is a great community of financial interest among these cities and New York. Between New York City and Boston the currency shipping points are only about 25 cents premium and 25 cents discount. Single financial deals between New York City and Boston are frequently of sufficient moment to lead to considerable shipments of currency, although exchange rates previously were only moderate. The relations among the clearing-house banks of Boston and among those of other New England cities are close, so that when one bank is in need of New York funds it is liable to obtain them from another which may have more than it needs. For this reason, it is said, much less money is now received from New York City a For information with reference to currency shipments between the New England and the Eastern States I am much indebted to the following persons: Mr. Francis B. Sears, vice-president of the National Shawmut Bank, of Boston; Mr. Hugh Bancroft, of the Boston News Bureau; Mr. Robert W. Taft, president, and Mr. Moses J. Barber, cashier, of the Merchants' National Bank, of Providence, R. I.; Mr. J. P. Hamilton, president of the Worcester National Bank, of Worcester, Mass.; Mr. F. A. Drury, president of the Merchants' National Bank, of Worcester; Mr. Charles A. Ruggles, manager of the Boston Clearing House; Mr. Albert R. Plant, manager of the Providence Clearing House Association; Mr. Cyrus P. Brown, president of the Industrial Trust Company, of Providence; and Prof. Henry B. Gardner, of Brown University. SEASONAL DEMAND FO and shipped there than was the case a few years ago. Currency movements between cities so near each other as New York and New Haven are of little significance in studying the relative demand for money in different geographic sections. A line, however, delimiting different geographic sections must be drawn somewhere in such a study, although " t h e border line" cases may frequently appear somewhat absurd. For the four years 1905-1908 the Eastern States reported receipts from New England amounting to $92,642,000, and the New England States reported ship- MONEY AND CAPITAL. 55 ments to the Eastern States amounting to $10,825,000; the Eastern States, on the other hand, reported shipments to the New England States amounting to $187,100,000, and the New England States reported receipts from the Eastern States amounting to $56,900,000. Obviously the figures reported by the New England States are very incomplete, and should be treated merely as minor evidence supplementary to that afforded by the more complete figures reported by the Eastern States (particularly by New York City). The analysis of these figures by seasons gives the results shown in the following table: TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908. Or NEW ENGLAND STATES, a RECEIPTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands. &] 1905. January. Section. Total United States March. April. a* a June. May. flu* I 1 < 1a < flu* 1 a I S3 O o a a < < d M o MS a 1 i < el a 11.9 7,987 34.3 10,943 100.0 10,428 88.6 6,830 8.6 6,490 M o a M fl S3 O a < $6,475 12.6 $6,295 33 0.4 148 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,508 1.4 6,443 October. Mo •3 a aus o a S3 flu* •o 6,599 i © a 3 < 0 $6,355 4.2 144 3.4 3.5 0 100 83.3 0 0 0 0 November. i a a 4-S flu* M* a 8.8 1.4 1.0 September. August. S3 $6,882 41.1 $7,200 63.4 $7,300 70.4 $7,723 100.0 $6,810 36.1 $6,420 95 2.1 787 21:2 3,643 100.0 2,705 74.1 20 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,977 July. s a ! < From— New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States February. 3.5 S3 AM* w £ o fl a AM MS December. i a < §u5 59.8 6,540 2.2 4-3 a I 1 < $7,255 67.2 $6,443 10.4 $6,523 16.0 97 2.1 2,140 58.5 1,758 48.0 0 0 0 0 0 120 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9,133 Year. 8,663 49.3 $81,681 11,640 0 220 0 0 Total United States o 6,605 17.2 3,930 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 7,159 80.0 1,724 40.4 0 0 0 0 0 7,335 100.0 2,916 72.6 0 0 0 0 0 6,918 52.7 2,963 73.8 0 0 0 0 0 7,321 98.4 1,023 21.4 0 0 0 0 0 6,816 41.2 2,923 72.8 0 0 0 0 0 7,087 232 0 0 0 0 71.9 0 10,535 100.0 8,883 56.2 10,251 92.5 9,882 82.7 8,344 42.0 9,739 78.9 7,319 14.8 0 6,527 8.4 2,237 54.2 0 0 0 0 0 6,453 306 0 0 0 0 0 2.0 8,764 53.1 6,759 0 0 7,313 97.5 1,826 43.1 0 115 100.0 0 0 6,620 18.9 1,756 41.2 0 0 0 0 0 6,576 13.9 729 13.4 0 0 0 0 0 9,254 8,376 42.8 7,305 66.1 14.5 82,731 22,565 0 115 0 0 105,411 1907. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 6,728 15.0 3,586 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 10,314 97.3 6,966 25.4 1,870 48.9 0 0 0 0 0 6,946 24.5 3,465 96.4 0 0 0 0 0 8,836 55.5 10,411 100.0 6,860 20.8 826 17.8 0 0 0 0 0 6,655 11.8 1,843 48.1 0 0 0 0 0 6,858 20.7 227 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,365 42.9 968 22.1 0 0 0 0 0 7,425 45.5 272 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 8,672 100.0 848 18.5 0 0 0 0 0 7,700 57.5 267 1.2 0 115 100.0 0 0 6,385 486 0 0 0 0 0 7.7 8,913 7,686 8,498 46.0 7,085 6.0 8,333 41.3 7,697 23.3 9,520 74.8 8,082 34.2 6,871 0 102,247 23.0 0 85,215 16,917 0 115 0 0 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 6,830 1,803 87.5 0 0 0 0 0 8,633 82.0 7,203 36.9 207 9.7 0 0 0 0 0 -7,410 21.9 7,304 46.8 17 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 7,130 29.6 185 8.6 0 0 0 0 0 7,205 37.1 23 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 6,955 12.4 10 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 7,053 22.0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,944 11.3 28 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 6,940 10.9 2,059 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 7,842 100.0 641 30.9 0 0 0 0 0 7,362 52.6 158 7.3 0 205 100.0 0 0 6,912 8.1 639 30.8 0 0 0 0 0 85,680 5,778 0 205 0 0 7,321 7,315 7,228 12.9 6,965 7,061 6,972 8,999 100.0 8,483 74.6 7,725 37.4 7,551 91,663 17.5 17.2 0 > Pi K| o O CO CO 6,655 11.8 2,258 60.5 0 0 0 0 0 57.7 l-H O 93,542 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States 3 > H 4.7 0.3 28.8 O 3 1905-1908. January. Section. +j M o B 03 a fe o B a& ^aP sea 3 H Total United States March. -t-> 3o From— New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States February. X 5 <> O "cl H "S-Q 6CH 03 5 t> «! o o H w a $ ^> _aP^ o H EH $27,045 18.3 $28,528 51.4 $28,885 60.4 $28,426 9,414 72.4 4,588 30.1 10,041 67.4 8,111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36,459 72.8 33,116 42.0 38,926 77.5 36,338 M a• as P a> j> -< os 3o H 48.5 $28,196 54.3 1,892 0 0 0 0 61.6 June. May. April. 30,088 M a& 2PS g> a k <1 a• i03 3o H 48.1 $26,846 10.0 4,846 0 0 0 0 21.6 M 31,692 August. July. jj M ! a& o3 S a t> < EoH <> _a!_• o3 S03 "el Eo H M •a ^ <3 a «4 > September. a• P o g03 "o3 O H ^j M T3 ^ gp <> 18.6 $27,473 31.8 $27,131 15.7 $27,173 15.2 30.6 500 0.1 3,381 20.2 2,781 26.7 0 0 0 0 100 20.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31.5 27,973 6.7 30,512 23.7 October. 30,054 31.7 I 03 n "el O e M IN 0> fl <1 > November. ^_j a P o 03 3 O H M as tea <> December. a• P o B 03 3o H $31,082 91.2 $28,125 34.9 $26,396 5,073 35.1 2,278 13.0 3,994 0 0 0 0 235 50.0 320 50.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36,390 68.8 30,723 29.2 M OJ IS IP ^> 9.5 27.6 30,391 23.2 Year. ^ I OS 3o B $335,307 56,900 0 655 0 0 392,862 a For detailed figures by States see Table 9 in the Appendix, pp. 276-281. 6 The totals sometimes show si difference of one or two thousand dollars from the sums obtained by adding the individual figures as they appear in this table, the discrepancy being due to the fact that the totals represent the sums of the individual figures carried out to more decimal places. W M > CO O >1 t" fe! O N O 5* t-1 en T A B L E IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. C7I 00 N E W E N G L A N D STATES—Continued. SHIPMENTS OF CASH REPORTED. (Amounts expressed in thousands.) 1905 February. January. Section. 4J a P o a < ToNew England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States a March. a is § MS a 73 $5,300 197 0 260 0 0 0 22.2 5,757 0 15.8 a $5,684 16.8 0 163 0 322 32.1 0 0 6,169 1 o < a 15.1 April. MS 73 a June. July. a d SUMS a 73 < "8 g a < a § a < a MS "8 § a 73 a < k-H $6,780 64.7 192 19.0 0 240 10.5 0 0 7,212 May. 53.3 $6,567 55.4 186 15.0 0 250 13.2 0 0 7,003 45.7 $6,170 207 0 245 0 0 88.0 28.8 6,622 31.7 11.8 $6,218 40.1 184 13.7 0 243 11.3 0 0 6,645 • 32.6 I MS 73 a $6,160 37.6 243 52.3 0 249 12.9 0 0 6,652 September. August. 4J a November. a §o MS < a a October. 1 a < $6,602 56.9 198 22.9 0 246 12.1 0 0 §^ 73 a December. Year. a •4-S a g a < a §.• I 73 a a < $6,421 49.0 211 31.4 0 495 77.6 0 0 $7,589 100.0 316 100.0 0 580 100.0 0 0 $6,585 56.1 219 36.6 0 200 0 0 0 +9 a 1 < I 1 $6,183 239 0 220 0 0 38.6 49.7 5.3 $76,259 2,552 0 3,550 0 0 32.8 7,046 47.3 50.2 8,485 100.0 7,004 45.7 6,642 32.4 82,361 65.0 ' 6,533 61.5 93 15.8 8.9 0 0 0 510 73.9 29.7 0 0 6,605 65.3 77 0 0 0 690 100.0 0 0 6,893 85 80.4 7.9 0 34.8 5,861 178 20 175 0 0 26.3 100.0 100.0 25.4 75,825 1,288 20 3,155 0 0 7,372 7,218 6,234 29.4 7,127 3 > H o > 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States 7.3 5,500 135 57.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,635 0.1 6,277 48.1 93 15.8 0 0 255 37.0 0 0 6,625 48.5 7,268 100.0 107 29.7 0 0 305 44.2 0 0 5,360 97 0 175 0 0 7,680 100.0 5,632 0 19.8 0 25.4 0 6,457 57.5 105 27.7 0 0 190 27.5 0 0 6,230 45.6 104 26.7 0 0 210 30.4 0 0 6,241 46.2 130 52.5 0 0 200 29.0 0 0 6,600 86 0 205 0 0 6,752 6,544 6,571 6,891 54.7 44.5 45.8 61.5 7,136 73.4 85.0 <? 240 0 0 77.4 80,288 1907. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 5,837 340 0 200 0 0 13.8 19.5 0 0 6,377 9.3 0 6,297 22.8 0 297 0 0 360 42.1 0 0 0 6,954 20.2 7,187 40.2 365 30.8 0 0 375 46.1 0 0 0 6,688 354 0 240 0 0 30.5 25.8 0 10.5 38.6 7,282 26.4 7,927 0 6,411 25.0 371 33.5 0 0 230 7.9 0 0 0 6,310 317 0 240 0 0 23.1 9.0 0 10.5 7,012 6,867 18.5 21.3 0 Total United States 6,231 0 349 74.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,977 30.7 110 4.9 0 0 62 14.9 0 0 0 6,580 7,149 0 21.5 6,250 21.9 363 29.9 0 0 220 5.3 0 0 0 7,484 310 0 240 0 0 46.0 5.9 0 10.5 6,833 8,034 40.6 17.9 0 5,132 0 465 76.0 55 55.0 235 9.2 0 0 0 81,779 4,370 - 220 3,695 0 20 0 90,084 7,265 42.6 260 48.3 70 60.9 210 50.6 0 0 0 7,297 43.9 . 0 93 70 60.9 0 0 20 80.0 0 85,297 2,616 280 1,147 45 0 7,805 7,480 34.0 89,384 6,730 31.3 330 14.9 100 100.0 365 43.4 0 0 0 10,240 100.0 342 20.4 10 10.0 580 100.0 0 0 0 7,213 518 55 410 0 20 100.0 7,525 31.0 11,172 100.0 8,216 44.1 7,502 52.3 177 24.3 0 0 60 14.5 0 0 0 6,632 220 0 0 0 0 16.5 36.7 0 0 0 6,587 14.7 285 55.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,942 29.3 218 36.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,767 22.1 204 32.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,865 26.1 148 15.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,572 439 115 415 0 0 55.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 0 7,739 6,852 10.3 6,872 7,160 6,971 7,013 8,541 74.1 43.8 11.0 21.9 J2J m > o o GO CO 40.7 100.0 55.0 55.3 5,887 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States O 14.8 16.4 8,660 115 25 400 25 0 100.0 6.4 21.7 96.4 100.0 9,225 100.0 46.3 i—i o 1905-1908. January. Section. February. S <DX> a 03 o H ToN e w E n g l a n d States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States d o d «-• & 3 twod o H < $22,868 1,021 ^ ^d 8 d -< 5.3 $25,235 43.3 662 0 0 460 0 0 4.0 0 0 24,349 2.4 0 999 0 0 26,896 March. • d d o April. ^j K T3 . a 1 «£ H ^ c3 &a 0) 1ft *>-£ a ^2 aa c3 £d H 64.3 $25,247 856 26.0 0 0 665 28.8 0 0 26.3 58.9 30,558 % o «-2' a 03 $a •a 2d £d «} 25.6 $25,625 24.3 967 a *a c3 "cl <i 33.8 $25,700 36.4 822 0 665 0 0 0 0 11.8 0 0 0 26,768 20.6 27,257 29.7 a J-I ^-9 03 sea 2d cu a B ^ 34.5 $25,418 939 21.4 d d o a _!_; d *cu -" .3 sQ id . d «-• . d O) ^•2 a *03 £d «i o H ^•s »-< d 03 "e3 £d H o "o B «! 32.0 $27,551 742 •4 48.5 $27,256 1,072 13.4 215 0 1,785 13.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27,026 27.8 28,984 41.5 30,328 57.2 0 27,215 29.4 0 691 0 M +j d d o +3 T3 . .ak 0>.Q C3 d d o a 03 »H d £d <4 49.3 $33,094 850 40.5 35 50.0 73.7 0 0 0 669 November. October. M 41.7 0 11.8 0 0 13.1 0 0 0 693 0 • M 1 o a "c3 B 0 12.3 0 0 5 « _^ September. August. July. M CD d o ^ < 29.6 $28,737 5.2 841 0 0 31.5 980 0 0 0 0 ^d M M d d o June. May. o &H 91.3 $27,956 2,250 25 0 25.0 0 1,081 125 1,060 0 20 36,254 96.3 30,242 31.7 7.9 99.1 December. M T3 ^j . cy^J cfH (-i d £d ^ +i X d d o d n CD.Q a 03 2§ H «1 55.0 $24,473 48.2 974 29.0 145 35.2 630 Year. 27.2 56.4 d d o ao3 3H o $319,160 10,825 54.0 520 10.0 11,547 45 0 25.0 20 0 20.0 0 53.4 26,242 24.0 20 342,116 TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continned. OS o EASTERN STATES." RECEIPTS OF CASH REPORTED. [Amounts expressed in thousands. &) * 1905. January. Section. d § S From— New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States $2,493 8,491 8,076 6,853 7 1,356 February. 1 flu* I 71.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 54.5 100.0 27,276 100.0 1 a § B ^ $673 5,576 3,520 2,621 8 1,145 March. "a 1 L MS d < 0.7 19.7 34.9 37.1 63.6 75.2 13,543 24.2 April. May. June. August. i a d p a < •a %* September. 2 d g a < 1 $751 3.8 4,912 1.4 2,416 19.2 126 0 5 36.4 1,312 94.8 $1,746 5,679 2,562 447 3 1,205 42.6 22.5 21.3 4.8 18.2 82.3 $1,426 30.1 5,036 4.8 2,513 20.6 1,286 17.2 3 18.2 564 7.0 9,522 11,642 13.7 10,828 2.0 July. 9.2 d dm' a < T3 os a 1 a < -t-5 "d il November. 8 a < o CU-" < 1 $1,335 26.5 6,079 33.6 2,513 20.6 1,219 16.2 3 18.2 1,309 94.5 $973 6,982 1,381 144 12 757 12.4 58.4 4.4 0.3 100.0 29.7 11,211 12,458 18.2 10,249 6.0 $654 0 $816 6,758 52.3 ! 5,875 1,074 0 2,084 167 0.6 286 5 36.4 8 0 504 742 9,162 December. d d d $1,718 41.5 0 4,861 3,179 30.1 903 11.6 7 54.5 543 4.6 11.3 October. 0 9,811 < r d 1 a < CD-" r Year. i < 6.3 ' $3,103 95.5 27.9 5,003 3.9 14.4 2,311 17.7 2.4 1,402 19.0 63.6 0 1 27.9 542 4.5 $3,219 6,920 3,102 2,196 1 693 jlOO.O ! 56.7 29.0 30.8 0 22.2 $18,907 72,170 34,731 17,650 63 10,672 12,362 16,131 38.5 154,193 3.6 17.7 Total United States 3,816 81.9 9,705 100.0 9,884 100.0 2,446 99.1 44 15.5 2,775 87.1 28,670 100.0 842 6.3 6,491 36.6 3,531 26.7 161 3.2 16 4.4 1,697 48.9 12,738 17.3 2,118 6,674 4,390 167 13 1,309 38.8 40.2 36.6 3.5 3.2 35.2 14,671 27.3 2,342 44.5 8,365 73.6 3,722 28.9 693 25.5 11 2.4 699 13.6 15,832 33.3 1,533 23.9 7,467 55.8 3,515 26.5 2,468 100.0 15 4.0 1,169 30.2 16,167 35.1 1,180 14.9 5,772 22.4 3,119 22.0 399 13.2 46 16.3 3,139 100.0 13,655 22.0 1,744 8,760 2,710 366 25 868 29.2 81.3 17.2 11.8 7.9 19.6 23.9 14,473 26.3 2,185 40.5 7,144 49.5 2,663 16.7 936 35.7 11 2.4 1,076 26.9 14,015 594 0 9,046 87.0 2.3 1,414 134 2.1 5 0 317 0.1 11,510 10.9 1,265 17.1 5,499 17.0 1,215 0 84 0 257 100.0 1,096 27.7 9,416 0 1,624 26.2 4,638 0 2,829 18.6 115 1.3 123 46.8 1,406 38.6 10,735 4,526 100.0 8,700 80.2 2,193 11.3 1,223 47.8 44 15.5 315 0 23,769 88,259 41,185 9,192 610 15,866 6.9 17,001 39.4 178,881 880 0 8,056 38.8 1,442 0 238 1.2 81 58.1 46 0 2,422 9,163 3,622 1,144 135 1,172 45.9 54.3 23.6 24.2 100.0 42.2 21,608 103,591 48,359 13,806 384 14,752 17,658 36.6 202,500 1907. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 4,242 100.0 10,682 75.6 10,674 100.0 1,367 29.8 59 41.1 2,610 96.1 1,331 13.4 7,674 33.5 2,960 16.4 516 8.2 7 0.8 2,713 100.0 1,534 6,640 3,963 191 8 975 19.5 19.0 27.3 0 1.6 34.8 29,634 100.0 15,201 23.6 13,311 13.6 1,313 12.9 9,662 61.3 5,790 47.1 1,308 28.3 14 6.2 687 24.0 18,774 42.5 1,953 31.9 5,978 9.7 5,645 45.5 4,132 100.0 6 0 592 20.5 18,306 40.0 2,862 9,620 3,637 1,703 9 2,319 59.0 60.7 23.8 38.4 2.3 85.2 958 2.3 10,225 69.2 2,933 16.1 478 7.3 6 0 792 28.0 17.3 20,150 49.8 15,392 975 2.8 8,184 40.6 1,819 4.1 264 1.9 11 3.9 1,116 40.1 24.6 12,369 8.6 5.6 1,368 8,913 43.0 3,305 13.9 9.5 1,584 23 1.4 2,129 50.5 1,112 7,350 2,072 229 9 1,171 0 21.4 0 1.2 0 0.3 11,943 0 7.4 1,130 12,419 100.0 4.6 1,870 377 4.7 8 1.6 1,145 41.2 16,949 32.9 10,743 0 1,833 15.8 7,074 17.6 7.6 2,747 50 0.1 11 0.2 1,727 29.5 2,631 5,796 2,762 40 28 1,459 33.4 0 7.8 0 2.0 15.4 3,712 57.1 12,605 94.0 2,384 3.5 2,567 15.6 18 0.9 1,165 0 28,358 112,442 69,449 76,510 1,943 24,247 12,716 2.3 22,451 30.8 312,949 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 5,666 13,044 10,920 12,419 975 3,073 ldb.o 100.0 100.0 76.3 100.0 100.0 46,097 100.0 1,474 7.9 6,448 9.0 6,843 53.9 2,243 13.6 254 25.4 2,346 61.9 19,608 22.4 1,563 9,402 8,445 9,141 27 2,535 9.9 49.8 72.0 56.1 1.9 71.8 2,020 19.9 9,358 49.1 9,506 84.0 15,047 92.5 12 0.3 2,328 61.0 H > Pi o o w w 2,008 33.6 0 5,288 4,004 27.8 2,088 48.1 40 26.4 585 20.2 14,013 > O 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States 3 % O 2,597 9,587 8,279 13,715 66 2,085 32.6 52.3 70.2 84.3 5.9 48.2 1,913 17.6 10,732 68.1 6,959 55.2 16,259 100.0 250 24.9 2,202 54.4 2,469 12,134 5,227 3,441 45 2,027 29.8 87.5 35.7 21.0 3.7 45.2 31,113 56.1 38,271 77.1 36,329 71.4 38,315 77.2 25,343 39.2 17,322 15.7 r-j 13,442 4.4 i—i O 1905-1908. January. February. March. April. Section. From — New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States.... Western States Pacific States Total United States May. June. July. at |$16,217 41,921 39,554 23,085 1,085 9,814 88.4 93.9 100.0 76.3 52.8 95.8 $4,320 26,189 16,854 131,676 100.0 61,090 7.1 24.7 33.0 5,541 15.5 285 23.6 7,901 71.5 21.9 18.0 27.6 38.8 9,625 14.9 53 10.8 6,131 59.2 $5,966 27,627 19,214 68,616 24.8 August. 30.0 51.6 45.3 37.8 6.8 45.2 $7,509 28,068 19,952 21,601 90 4,410 29.6 30.7 40.7 75.4 7.0 26.5 $6,819 26,653 17,261 19,649 343 6,469 26.9 22.6 33.8 43.2 30.5 44.8 $8,851 34,976 14,040 84,518 41.7 81,630 38.9 77,194 32.0 71,965 October. November. December. Year. d f-> d f- a% $1,421 33,063 21,580 17,495 40 4,919 September. i 39.0 57.8 24.2 7,299 27.8 68 6.7 6,731 63.0 $5,043 34,880 10,329 32.8 57,436 12.4 63.0 12.9 2,572 7.2 66 27.3 4,546 32.0 18.2 0.7 $5,044 11.7 50.3 30,867 40.6 6.7 7,916 1.6 1.8 797 794 1.5 284 41.4 30 10.1 3,108 10.1 4,710 31.6 $3,335 31,338 6,379 44,984 4.9 49,618 10.2 $8,238 38.8 [$13,879 23,493 10.7 37,387 9,344 11.0 11,301 7,130 1,795 5.4 198 233 26.7 3,453 14.6 3,345 75.8 71.3 16.9 29.6 29.1 16.1 $92,642 376,462 193,724 117,158 3,000 65,537 73,240 36.3 848,523 46,556 6.7 a For detailed figures by States see Table 9 in the Appendix, pp. 282-305. b The totals sometimes show a difference of one or two thousand dollars from the sums obtained by adding the individual figures as they appear in this table, the discrepancy being due to the fact that the totals represent the sums of the individual figures carried out to more decimal places. * > O >1 IT O > OJ TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. EASTERN to STATES—Continued. SHIPMENTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands.] 1905. January. February. April. March. May. August. July. June. September. October. November. December. Year. Section. flu' 6 < 8* 4 To— New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States.... Western States Pacific States $971 0 5,710 53.2 860 0.2 97 0 0 0 1 3.6 $1,557 Total United States 5.3 6,622 as KA 14.3 $5,078 •100.0 $4,989 97.8 $1,225 6.2 7.3 4,411 19.8 4,277 16.4 4,912 32.7 7.5 1,387 838 0 1,595 5.4 1,169 3.3 299 2.1 1,273 12.2 761 6.9 237 1.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 14.3 5 17.9 5 17.9 0 0 3,923 12,361 30.1 11,419 25.2 flu* a> H2 a < 7,543 4.8 g.2 a cu1" a 4 S3 S3 a 4 $3,031 50.2 $1,579 14.8 $4,174 78.0 $3,315 57.1 $3,016 49.8 $2,273 31.7 $4,012 74.0 4,689 27.0 3,641 0 4,762 28.8 6,513 73.9 6,419 71.5 7,156 90.4 7,528 100.0 1,308 4.7 3,015 21.6 3,630 27.7 10,913 100.0 6,340 54.6 4,786 39.2 4,352 34.9 157 0.6 4,085 41.3 9,568 98.0 2,287 22.7 5,527 56.2 7,776 79.5 9,761 100.0 0 0 11 [100.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7.1 26 92.9 8 28.6 20 71.4 0 0 28 100.0 15 53.6 9,187 13.5 12,320 29.9 22,171 81.6 23,036 16.2 21,322 77.2 22,019 80.8 25,668 100.0 $35,220 63,939 40,193 41,828 11 114 4,445 29.3 8,552 65.5 0 826 2,091 15.9 0 0 18 0.1 3,289 4,783 1,491 294 0 34 Total United States 15,932 25.2 9,891 5.9 0 7.2 1.3 0 0.3 5,160 43.7 7,934 54.8 1,151 3.5 2,597 20.0 1.0 1 0.4 46 16,889 29.2 4,901 38.5 7,418 45.8 1,893 11.6 2,817 21.8 86 86.0 .9,715 100.0 26,830 70.7 2,999 0 5,380 10.4 1,989 12.7 134 0 "* 1 1.0 4,018 41.3 14,521 19.3 O 5,677 54.2 6,292 26.2 6.9 1,459 2,401 18.4 0 0 108 1.1 3,278 5,042 1,473 1,482 1 351 5.6 4.5 7.0 10.9 1.0 3.6 25.2 11,627 7.2 15,937 6.5 61.4 86.7 21.3 71.0 10.8 53,844 86,748 42,479 47,919 268 15,798 33,860 100.0 20,074 42.5 24,315 60.2 247,056 7,939 100.0 4,056 21.4 4,856 37.6 9,052 74.2 10,538 100.0 6,375 27.7 3,102 24.8 6,133 57.7 10,018 100.0 7,575 60.4 8,565 68.4 12,459 100.0 3.0 3 100 100.0 2 2.0 2.1 0 210 52 0.5 27,676 74.2 29,505 81.9 3,922 7,068 4,152 4,745 3 184 18.7 39.7 36.2 37.4 3.0 1.8 3,322 8,315 8,792 2,759 71 1,056 1907. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States.... Western States Pacific States. Total United States 5,597 35.8 6,871 15.8 0 749 553 1.3 4 0.2 43 1.1 13,817 6.9 4,395 6,266 8.9 7.5 1,509 3,001 17.2 0 0 145 4.2 24.5 15,316 10.3 7,304 51.9 5,874 4.4 1,819 10.6 4,004 23.8 0 0 63 1.7 19,064 18.9 62.2 8,393 8,464 33.9 1,402 6.5 4,259 25.4 0 0 36 0.9 22,554 26.9 0 18.6 0 4.4 0 0 20 0.4 3,771 5,490 1,197 355 10,833 4,595 26.4 5,687 2.2 1,335 5.8 670 2.1 0 0 30 0.7 12,317 4,856 3,965 20.4 10,517 57.4 65,556 91,608 51,385 64,831 3,972 6,732 3.4 16,540 13.1 21,414 24.3 27,334 37.9 54,355 100.0 43,981 76.2 26,558 36.1 284,084 25.0 27.0 13.1 11.5 0 1.0 4,029 21.0 6,628 13.0 3,176 24.0 7,058 43.6 1 0 522 15.6 6,726 14.1 8,116 73.0 7,530 46.7 5.0 100 6 0 12,403 100.0 14,255 100.0 10,407 i.7 15,715 1100.0 624 31.4 951 28.6 10,844 100.0 13,361 ,7 1,986 100.0 3,308 100.0 1,801 6,972 8,756 6,203 1,257 1,569 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 1,514 7,762 697 768 23 478 11,242 9.5 78.5 4.3 12.4 59.0 100.0 26.9 1,343 6.0 5,296 30.5 689 4.2 96 0.9 2 5.1 73 14.0 1,385 5,898 42.2 612 2.7 44 0 1 2.6 17.2 8,028 3.8 5,929 100.0 6,093 46.0 468 0 277 4.0 0 0 62 11.7 12,829 1,052 0 6,062 45.4 528 1.1 3,016 50.9 0 0 0 7 10,665- 22.7 2,390 27.4 6,936 62.4 718 4.7 227 3.1 0 0 10 0.6 10,281 20.0 2,095 21.4 7,136 66.3 830 6.8 92 0.8 0 0 19 2.6 10,172 H > KJ n O co 0 16.9 79.3 38.1 63.3 47.3 4,447 7,857 2,075 2,122 0 O 181,305 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States.... Western States Pacific States i—i 19.2 2,552 30.8 3,724 0 1,044 10.9 1,126 18.5 10 25.6 11 0.8 8,467 100.0 1100.0 3.2 2,813 5,121 4,088 4,342 0 60 36.1 27.1 68.2 73.6 0 11.3 6.9 21,432 100.0 16,424 64.1 3,338 6,377 5,772 5,884 39 22 46.9 51.6 100.0 2,548 30.7 5,298 30.6 1,941 27.8 5,521 91.6 8,870 100.0 2,261 33.8 1,278 21.1 1,547 25.7 7 17.9 20 51.3 16.8 47 8.5 32,480 74,573 19,648 18,697 102 963 26.3 18,266 77.3 146,463 11,158 CO •o 1905-1908. January. Section. CD X) © I •a -^>o February. . .Sfc SPg t-i P EH a P o 1 1 M CD T5 . •3S s?a £p £d March. a April. M i § 1 o SH P £d EH O Western States Pacific States Total United States w>d a) ca <1 1 I 8 >H P •a o M I .as $a o 2P o> •a EH $12,527 28,896 3,132 3,509 27 540 48,631 18.7 $10,584 53.3 20,267 1.1 4,527 7.4 3,690 14.8 2 26.2 257 16. r 39,327 12.7 $18,927 11.7 24,118 4.7 5,177 5.4 7,918 1.3 2 9.1 201 2.6 56,343 50.6 $24,212 30.3 26,252 5,150 6.1 8,114 14.0 86 0.9 9,818 8.4 74.6 35.5 5.9 14.5 21.5 32.6 $9,047 21,844 4,883 3,742 1 4,045 6.2 $15,693 22.1 23,604 5.4 4,820 13.1 3,455 0.3 10.4 150 20.5 40.3 43,562 11.7 47,722 73,632 July. 0 1 •a 39.6 $11*399 29.5 23,675 7,393 5.5 7,781 6.1 1 0 2.4 409 15.5 August. M 1 O EH E-« ToNew England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States 03 as June. May. 50,658 CD as CUrQ s?a £p £d ! 8 i H CD 1 £d September. 11 3 o EH EH 1• .9 8 s?a < October. •4 11 .as 3 «d CD s?a gp November. £p o a 03 SP £d 1 o EH d P o a 03 "3 +J o ^- •4 CD .a| SP1 t-l p £d Year. i o a 03 "o3 -(J O EH 16.7 $18,694 24.5 24,165 12.1 10,952 16.1 25,327 0.3 24 1.8 565 57.5 $15,565 29.0 30,154 21.9 30,934 55.1 24,266 142 31.9 246 27.3 38.6 $23,088 59.9 32,169 82.7 30,853 59.5 38,043 27.0 724 8.5 1,083 55.9 $12,708 56.6 30,040 79.6 21,723 82.5 27,160 32.9 1,996 28.0 3,606 17.4 46.8 101,307 76.5 125,960 85.3 79,727 .a s s?a December. 97,233 25.4 $14,656 54.5 31,684 50.8 24,161 55.7 20,270 30.2 1,348 54.7 2,687 43.0 69.6 58.7 46.3 46.4 30.1 $187,100 56.5 68.4 858,908 94,806 316,868 153,705 173,275 4,353 23,607 TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. OS MIDDLE WESTERN STATES.a RECEIPTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands. *>] 1905. February. January. April. March. May. July. June. August. September. October. November. December. Year. Section. a a a From— New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States... Western States Pacific States 0 $5 3,474 6,171 1,377 317 0 0 100.0 51.7 82.1 62.1 Total United States 11,343 !.9 I MS as T3 a 0 0.3 2,497 57.1 3,474 0 1,074 45.7 218 38.9 0 0 $925 9.3 2,140 41.4 5,834 45.3 712 2.2 274 52.0 0 $218 1,893 5,327 986 175 o 2.2 30.5 35.5 35.1 28.8 0 $202 2,648 4,832 870 211 0 2.0 63.7 26.0 21.2 37.2 $82 2,186 3,871 1,049 7,298 9,886 24.9 8,599 12.5 8,762 14.1 7,491 0 $36 0 0.8 43.4 7.6 42.7 302 58.5 0 1.9 a 0 0 $3,397 34.3 1,562 16.0 4,946 28.2 786 11.1 357 71.4 11,047 36.0 $75 75.0 9,882 100.0 1,553 15.6 4,875 26.9 a < a 694 0 54.8 0 0 $2,448 24.7 1,198 0 6,165 51.6 1,171 57.3 52 0 17,364 96.8 11,034 35.9 $100 100.0 6,365 64.4 1,230 1.4 8,689 100.0 1,166 56.7 149 22.7 0 $7,607 1,310 6,709 1,062 479 17,699 100.0 17,167 0 0 0 77.0 $6,695 67.7 4.9 2,976 78.1 ! 62.0 6,012 48.7 44.2 1,526 100.0 100.0 230 41.7 $175 37,861 24,666 66,905 12,471 3,051 17,439 97.5 j 145,129 94.9 Total United States 0 0 1,371 10.7 4,413 100.0 6,671 44.2 1,228 45.2 580 58.9 14,263 33.2 50 4.8 2,445 19.3 0 2,887 4,454 52.7 17.0 30.3 1,364 58.7 516 50.3 145 0 0 227 0 1.6 2,475 3,064 39.9 1,077 7,358 200 19.2 2,548 2,425 4,552 20.1 38.3 18.2 949 17.6 170 3.4 0 11,344 19.2 10,845 16.8 0 24 0 0 2,549 4,117 200 19.2 42.2 2,091 2,352 12.9 3,658 961 18.7 883 100.0 1,130 35.5 5.7 9,875 8,534 16.4 200 19.2 9.8 36.1 1,259 2,192 31.1 7.3 3,635 7.0 444 40.5 12.1 894 12.1 273 17.3 8,453 O > F O 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States... Western States Pacific States 3 900 86.5 5,251 1,253 3,635 41.6 2.0 7.0 1,780 100.0 225 10.8 1,040 100.0 5,984 47.4 1,190 0 7,751 57.4 772 196 0 6.9 975 93.7 12,592 100.0 1,286 3.0 11,233 100.0 1,323 54.7 726 78.7 200 19.2 3,585 28.3 1,387 5,198 1,252 26.1 47.6 6.1 670 71.1 0 0 2,790 22.0 1,954 23.7 7,549 54.9 1,237 46.1 467 j 43.6 5.3 13,044 27.4 16,933 46.1 28,134 100.0 12,291 23.7 13,997 32.0 3,765 40,167 26,362 65,518 13,965 5,294 155,070 H > o o 1907. GQ New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States... Western States Pacific States 0 424 4,374 6,386 1,202 979 0 1.0 100.0 33.2 86.0 100.0 200 1,528 2,198 4,309 1,019 53.2 885 90.3 Total United States 13,365 15.8 10,138 10.4 11.1 41.5 16.5 36.5 34.5 2,627 53.0 6,241 32.0 801 14.2 371 37.3 700 4,089 775 40.4 0 0 4,287 36.3 310 0 3,608 79.4 4,297 97.9 5,810 28.5 947 40.3 167 16.3 4,558 18.5 1,029 55.0 454 45.9 0 14,828 23.0 15,595 26.8 10,648 200 812 3,710 4,600 968 131 2.5 10,422 10.4 31.3 800 4.6 600 2,021 15.6 6,627 82.2 2,502 49.7 18.8 4,642 19.1 1,688 4,982 44.1 817 385 17.0 12.6 1.4 10,966 38.8 41.7 57.7 27.8 21.9 40.5 24.9 400 1,920 100.0 11,256 100.0 1,620 26.0 14,692 100.0 237 20.8 49.5 20.8 56.2 79.4 23.5 18,205 5,730 1,427 9,246 0 0 6,925 60.4 653 0 2,264 0 775 9.5 722 0 235 23.3 9 0 39.6 30,498 100.0 10,572 0 0 6.0 1,244 19.7 6,172 100.0 1,991 18.3 1,664 9.6 5,055 0 12,035 100.0 2,294 37.0 1,555 9.6 471 43.3 0 147 0 0 4,390 71.0 9.7 1,671 11,045 85.8 1,958 24.5 197 6.7 0 0 405 6.0 0 1,309 6,587 21.9 0 1,296 348 26.9 6.5--21,906 100.0 19,260 77.9 9,945 948 251 4.1 15,296 25.3 1,165 0 0 4,369 37.1 1,561 24.4 5,551 26.4 1,280 100.0 10 0.1 2.1 12,771 12.9 5,595 48,377 30,265 73,281 11,673 4,115 173,305 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States... Western States Pacific States Total United States 100 837 4,770 11,400 3,848 500 21,455 100.0 13.1 93.1 90.9 94.6 47.2 0 0 366 5.4 4,584 88.1 5,949 12.8 2,572 47.3 100.0 6.2 37.0 14,366 0 237 5,027 100.0 5,102 0.7 3,917 97.1 242 12.7 14,526 0 0 63 0.5 4,177 77.1 5,541 7.0 2,841 57.3 529 51.1 13,151 26.8 0 34 4,690 6,581 3,799 283 0 0 90.9 21.9 92.8 18.2 15,387 45.5 0 0 82 0.8 2,968 44.6 5,475 6.0 3,179 69.8 572 56.8 12,275 19.5 0 92 3,070 0 0.9 47.4 1.4 5,153 3,994 100.0 378 30.9 12,686 22.9 10,728 0 0 2,640 2,396 7,241 2,322 629 0 42.5 29.2 31.3 38.0 64.4 15,227 44.2 106 16,561 38,316 87,165 33,575 5,190 180,913 O 3 1905-1908. 1 January. I—1 § Section. 1 1° j,, o o EH "S-S MR cS d fed > < February. 1 I •t-a o EH d fe *2 a) d <1 Southern States Middle W e s t e r n S t a t e s Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States $100 2,637 17,032 30,629 7,655 2,376 25.0 6.2 98.3 55.0 77.0 67.1 $200 2,156 11,753 16,796 5,741 2,514 60,428 46.0 39,160 2.6 4.6 April. 3 M <v FromN e w England States Eastern States March. ! 0 dfe 3 o d <u bi3d c3 *c3 "cl o EH O g 3 fed 3 June. May. M o> +3 g d cv o s " d I I o | fed o d fe —1,0 CD a" W)H 03 D fed > < > August. July. g o s C3 3 d fe •-§ 2 d © d t> 1 M a> d fe •a c3 3 >i d September. October. 3 gfe X g 1 03 fe d cp d > "o 6H *c3 g ! 03 d fe c3° S fe d November. 1 I I* il a •4-5 o fed "o 56.7 7.3 44.1 69.9 10.3 16.6 61.8 23.8 43.1 25.5 $975 7,116 12,103 21,231 5,724 1,041 14.9 14.8 56.3 22.3 37.6 24.9 9.3 50,584 26.4 48,190 20.7 $568 14,183 20,089 6,659 1,831 0 0.5 73.7 19.8 46.9 50.3 $400 3,067 11,216 17,605 6,326 1,449 43,331 17.0 40,063 0 $1,775 23,004 6,157 18,547 5,717 1,232 50.8 54.8 13.8 14.0 44.4 33.5 $1,446 20,335 5,806 35,197 48.0 42.1 12.6 15.2 36.1 13.9 35.1 39.6 8.7 43,152 17.1 56,431 39.0 68,079 5.7 51.6 9.9 dfe ®d o3°| fed > 03 i 1 03 Is "8 EH © $800 6,768 9,326 18,376 6,489 1,392 7.4 3 Year. "o EH $750 7,696 12,679 21,632 6,794 1,033 December. X 4,663 632 $200 18,522 1,307 73.4 83.9 10.0 96.5 36.4 32.9 95,591 94.5 49,975 31.7 55.4 9.8 66.3 36.6 $2,995 34,603 7.6 55.4 5,807 45,658 5,221 4,658 20,758 4,332 1,506 EH 27.5 23.0 49.5 26,353 6,364 1,336 0 42.3 38.9 40.3 71.0 37.5 30.2 59,434 46.7 0 4.8 42.9 $16,495 8,886 2.8 $9,641 142,966 119,608 292,869 71,684 17,650 654,417 a F o r d e t a i l e d figures b y S t a t e s , see T a b l e 9 in t h e A p p e n d i x , p p . 306-344. & T h e t o t a l s s o m e t i m e s s h o w a difference of one or t w o t h o u s a n d dollars from t h e s u m s o b t a i n e d b y a d d i n g t h e i n d i v i d u a l figures as t h e y a p p e a r in t h i s t a b l e , t h e d i s c r e p a n c y b e i n g d u e t o t h e fact t h a t t h e totals repres e n t t h e s u m s of t h e i n d i v i d u a l figures carried o u t t o m o r e decimal places. TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908.—Continued. M I D D L E W E S T E R N STATES—Continued. SHIPMENTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands.] 1905. i February. January. Section. a 1a < March. ! May. April. o i < a a !, 8,2 O a 3o flu* MS -< d n a ! o a*; 8 a < Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States i 8.8 5 i a < 0 $7,390 100.0 0 1,080 4.6 6,340 0 $2,343 967 60 0 4.5 6,747 1,004 80 31.0 2.0 8.4 0.8 9.0 15,836 21.8 11,441 0.8 1,268 0 $964 1,734 9,655 3,121 0 $1,734 1,509 107 12.1 7.1 36.1 45.4 15.1 7,380 1,422 126 22.7 4.7 14.5 9.6 19.3 15,581 20.5 12,171 4.3 0 $2,626 1,525 5,861 1,229 40 11,281 ; 0 34.9 $3,492 4.9 | 2,568 0 6,581 5.5 1,266 0 44 46.7 16.3 6.9 6.3 0.9 13,951 12.8 0 i flu* i 0 $1,782 3,858 7,719 2,830 flu' Ia a a < I < j To— N e w England States Eastern States September. August. July. October. 1 a 0 a June. §*• S : S-a a § M < < 0 47 23.3 30.4 17.7 39.3 1.6 5,377 13,262 3,999 104 0.3 47.0 70.5 63.9 14.4 16,235 23.7 22,841 55.2 $99 i 0 $76 10,230 15,112 5,273 a , ; 0 100.0 88.1 | 90.8 485 IlOO.O 1 95.0 31,176 i t& November. l a 3 o December. I § o MS a a < < 0 $1,192 15.3 8,617 82.4 16,365 100.0 5,710 100.0 329 64.9 0 $1,364 6,341 32,214 100.0 20,484 9,608 3,095 76 5 $3,003 4,472 a < 0 0 17.6 57.5 35.7 44.9 Year. $26,065 8.1 10,548 2,080 129 40.0 37.1 44.6 23.5 20.0 44.0 20,232 42.8 223,442 48,579 115,179 31,995 1,624 • Southern States Middle W e s t e r n S t a t e s Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 0 2,354 1,222 6,074 1,017 13 10,680 0 0 1,210 1*697 8,064 1,211 40 0 12,222 52.9 0.5 5.3 0 26.2 4.4 18.8 4.4 0.4 5.4 0 984 1,431 9,517 2,132 20.9 2.2 140 28.7 25.2 1.8 14,204 12.3 0 1,881 41.9 1,167 0 6,062 5.2 2,066 23.7 7,171 100.0 18,347 26.7 0 0 4,374 100.0 | 1,118 1,214 0.4 j 2,247 5,291 0 8,322 2,308 29.2 2,558 203 2.7 1 149 13,389 9.4 | 14,394 i 24.0 9.0 20.6 34.9 0 774 3,011 7,666 1.9 2,310 105 12.9 13,865 i I ; 0 | 16.0 525 | 10.2 15.3 | 6,220 | 41.9 ! 0 0 321 87 0 16.1 j 11,507 j 42.2 29.2 4,427 j 77.1 1.5 1.3 1 120 9,217 14,153 5,054 263 66.7 60.1 91.3 3.5 5.5 13,233 100.0 20,030 100.0 5,437 100.0 374 5.0 42.2 28,774 63.0 39,395 100.0 11.1 | 22,799 0 1,615 2,943 41 35.6 69.3 39.2 43.6 0.4 25,188 50.5 9,530 11,061 0 1,029 5,320 11,857 2,282 166 22.0 34.4 44.6 28.6 2.1 0 16,270 55,507 119,604 33,746 8,783 20,655 34.7 233,910 0 1,574 34.4 Southern States 1,071 7,261 2.7 926 0 10,541 2,024 38 3.3 10,870 0.6 Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 0 0 0.1 0 39.3 17.5 18.3 847 1,061 7,282 1,233 430 38.7 228 20.5 19,632 23.3 10,650 0 1,677 6.0 13,058 33.1 2,683 59 16.9 11.8 19.9 11.4 5.2 15,707 13.1 820 2,263 1,784 0 2.8 3.2 0 4,401 100.0 1,772 7.0 6,749 0 1,110 1.9 423 38.1 14,455 9.9 0 2,113 46.9 0 1,146 3,223 0 24.4 93 21.1 0 0 168 5,851 3,973 28.5 11,986 27.5 16,038 8.7 4,487 37.0 5,684 15.0 8,087 1,762 1 7.0 0 223 20.0 417 1.7 46.9 48.7 49.4 37.5 7.4 14,218 9.3 20,762 26.3 28,158 45.5 0 1,614 0 7.9 32.1 51.2 27.8 12.8 0 545 1,848 6,248 2,708 0 19.2 11.9 10.2 26.4 8,869 15,215 0 0 87.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 33.1 33,349 100.0 2,210 11.2 7,217 2.5 1,798 9.1 167 13,504 0 405 7.2 0 379 5,131 0 0 1,037 3,796 8,011 2,414 435 21.9 26.8 6.6 15.5 39.2 131,343 533 6.6 39.8 13.4 20.0 48.0 18,193 19.6 15,692 13.1 231,005 11,285 100.0 25,816 100.0 10,552 100.0 2,851 1,109 100.0 49,165 100.0 9,299 14,765 43,312 37,524 4,061 1908. N e w England States 1 Eastern States Southern States 9,905 Middle Western States 6,466 762 Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 759 66 17,958 14.3 69.1 0.1 12.4 0 10.0 30.3 0 2,476 1,058 6,734 0 14.3 3.4 15.1 882 124 1.6 20.1 11,274 0 54 0 64.0 0.4 0 5.6 8.0 16,453 23.5 0 9,214 781 5,229 1,174 0 7 100.0 11,609 81.7 978 2.5 6,537 13.1 3.5 1,022 3.1 26 0 0 14,091 100.0 1,416 7.2 6,826 16.0 2,425 22.6 3,147 6,196 938 91 0 89.9 0 9.7 2.4 14.4 28 3.5 8 0 2,815 82 20,698 42.7 20,179 24,786 61.2 13,958 12.2 18,586 12,727 746 40.3 0 H > Pi O i 1907. N e w England States Eastern States > H O > o 1906. New England States Eastern States 3 3,731 10,345 8,136 585 0 985 0 3.2 10,033 100.0 13,675 84.6 5,872 69.3 0 0 0 0 8 931 5,756 2.8 15.0 47.6 56.6 15.6 21.5 69,819 41,143 42.5 37 5.0 9,495 3,430 14 30,601 87.6 19,625 36.2 1.0 2,578 5,168 10,877 1,910 132 37.8 20,665 53.9 42.7 103,842 32,074 1,247 248,131 GO W )-* o 1905-1908. January. March. February. April. d d o d ** 1.8 &>§ ToNew England States Eastern States Southern States Middle W e s t e r n S t a t e s . . . Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States $1 21,223 4,132 26,140 3,672 177 55,344 3.6 64.1 0.2 4.5 0 $6,849 6,286 32,085 5,121 303 13.2 50,643 . 6.3 0 o 0 22.1 |$12,946 5,623 5.4 15.6 37,459 4.6 8.7 a ^a 9,110 731 65,869 June. May. M u d O £d October. November. December. cp-5 gd o> d d CD rt 5H 0 43.0 1.2 8.1 9.7 38.6 $7 23,010 5,488 24,438 5,668 692 0 25.0 79.2 j$20,814 8,439 3.7 3.3 28,947 8,047 10.1 11.0 387 0 54.4 10.9 11.5 18.2 5.3 0 $6,848 11,939 29,720 9,610 160 0 20.7 19.7 12.8 25.9 0.7 19.9 18.4 59,303 14.9 66,634 23.6 58,276 14.1 Year. d *-< d *-< §?S 0 0 34.1 j$l7,188 3.9 4,483 24.5 26,919 23.6 5,659 15.9 7,616 61,865 September. ^. CD T3 . d f-> a »* 03 August. July. X a> 0 $2,330 19,301 0 4.6 37.4 47.9 51.5 528 12.2 47,100 15,728 0 $875 34,167 60,518 24,148 1.750 39.2 1121,457 0 0.4 75.3 74.2 82.9 60.3 0 $2,902 43,167 75,885 27,572 1,849 0 7.8 95.6 96.2 92.3 43.7 $4,287 26,757 39,463 12,319 663 0 0 15.7 55.1 32.8 36.2 14.4 0 $7,646 75.' 151,375 96.9 83,489 ;.o 18,757 41,293 8,686 861 0 24.7 36.5 38.1 20.8 20.7 $8 126,919 188,540 469,968 135,339 15,715 77,244 33.3 936,- w > O > O > h- > o^ TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. SOUTHERN OO STATES.« RECEIPTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands.^] 1905. February. January. Section. i o < *-* < a From— New England States Eastern States Southern States c Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 1 1'- a P u M & cy" X5 P 1 0 0 0 $25 0 0 25 0 0 3.9 1.0 o S a p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 April. March. cw" < 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1, p 53 O a < 0 0 0 0 cy" 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 August. a a §^ M£ 9 o a < 0 0 0 0 0 0 July. June. May. 0 0 0 0 An* a o 8.2 53 O < p a 0 0 0 $25 0 0 25 a < 0 0 3.9 1.0 a "p 53 *u a P MS < 0 0 0 0 0 $645 100.0 0 0 September. p 53 o a < I, •3.S t-t October. p 53 O a < 0 0 $350 17.0 $2,065 100.0 0 0 315 100.0 70 10.9 105 16.3 0 0 0 0 t, 8-2 •3 p h-t 0 $700 33.9 280 88.9 232 36.0 0 0 November. December. a a 1a < Year. 53 flu' M* cy" P t-t 0 0 0 0 0 $478 74.1 0 0 p § a a I < 0 $46 2.2 0 0 120 18.6 0 0 0 $3,161 595 1,700 0 0 420 16.9 2,485 100.0 1,212 48.8 478 19.2 166 6.7 5,456 0 56 0.8 0 0 543 37.6 0 0 0 553 29.0 0 0 100 6.9 0 0 0 1,099 59.9 0 0 26 1.8 0 0 0 1,806 100.0 70 100.0 1,446 100.0 0 0 0 721 38.5 0 0 595 41.2 0 0 0 350 17.5 0 0 775 53.6 0 0 0 4,970 70 3,515 0 0 599 17.0 653 18.6 1,125 3,322 100.0 33.0 8,555 645 26.0 3 > H i—i O > 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 42 0 0 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 $91 0 20 0 0 111 2.8 0 1.4 2.1 0 $70 0 0 0 0 70 1.6 0 0 0.9 0 $56 0 0 0 0 56 0.8 0 0 0.4 0 $84 0 0 0 0 84 2.4 0 0 1.3 0 42 0 10 0 0 52 0 0 0.7 0.3 33.0 1,316 38.8 1,125 1907. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 0 406 12.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 0 40 0 0 8.5 96 406 0 1.6 5.0 1.1 0 56 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 56 0.2 0 0 56 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 56 0.2 0 0 56 0 0 0 0 0 1.6 56 0.2 0 0 28 0 20 0 0 0 0.7 48 0 2.5 0 0 756 23.7 0 231 28.9 0 0 700 100.0 3,178 100.0 0 365 45.6 0 0 0 0 2,254 70.9 0 706 88.3 0 0 0 5 0 84 0 0 30.1 987 22.4 4,243 100.0 2,960 69.4 89 0 56 7.4 0 1,183 100.0 0 0 28 0 0 170 14.4 0 0 0 56 7.4 0 277 23.4 0 0 198 14.0 333 25.2 0 0 0 0 497 15.5 10.5 165 20.6 0 0 700 7,859 0 2,411 0 0 1.1 662 14.6 10,970 a 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 56 0 0 0 0 56 7.4 0 2.3 0 56 0 0 0 0 56 7.4 0 2.3 0 56 0 0 0 0 56 7.4 0 2.3 0 28 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 0 56 7.4 0 2.3 0 56 0 0 0 0 56 7.4 0 o 2.3 Pi a o w 0 0 511 15.9 0 800 100.0 0 0 1,311 H > 1,239 100.0 0 406 100.0 0 820 69.3 0 0 1,226 98.9 0 56 7.4 0 639 54.0 0 0 0 56 0 5 0 0 695 55.1 61 7.4 0.4 2.7 0 966 0 3,094 0 0 4,060 O 1905-1908. January. February. Section. nd gd From— New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States.... Western States Pacific States 0 $504 0 25 0 0 0 5.0 0 1.0 Total United States 529 3.0 263 1.4 o 1.6 0 $182 0 0 0 0 0 2.7 0 0 182 0.9 2d 0 $140 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 0 0 140 0.2 0 $196 0 0 0 0 196 0 2.9 0 0 0 $126 0 55 0 0 181 0 2.0 0 1.8 8? I 0 0 0 0 $623 6.0 $1,687 17.4 0 0 0 0 571 15.3 3,171 84.4 0 0 0 0 43.3 2,258 18.0 October. *>£ $700 25.0 66.8 315 25.0 773 21.8 0 0 6,398 8,186 64.6 November. December. Year. d *-< d u . y <u . d <D a> d 3,794 September. X 'd . d «-i bed r« "3 0 3.0 August. •d a> •d a> ®-2 0 $203 0 60 0 0 July. June. •3 . d *-> I May. April. March. 2 d 0 0 $5,166 76.2 350 47.2 3,204 73.4 0 0 8,720 79.3 3 0 0 $782 11.5 0 0 1,796 45.0 0 0 0 0 $948 10.6 0 0 1,065 23.3 0 0 $700 16,955 665 10,720 0 0 2,578 2,013 29,040 28.5 14.3 a For detailed figures by States see Table 9 in the Appendix, pp. 345-352. 6 The totals sometimes show a difference of one or two thousand dollars from the sums obtained by adding the individual figures as they appear in this table, the discrepancy being due to the fact that the totals represent the sums of the individual figures carried out to more decimal places. cThe manager of the Memphis clearing house reports that during the months of October, November, and December about $100,000 daily are received fr»m St. Louis, Chicago, Cincinnati, and New York. These are the only figures available from Tennessee, and are in addition to the amounts given above. Ul > ui O d TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. SOUTHERN STATES—Continued. SHIPMENTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands.] _ 1905. January. February. March. April. June. August. July. ! September. October. November. December. Section. HS a < ToNew England States Eastern States Southern States" Middle Western States Western States Pacific States j 0 ' $1,395 14 1,060 0 0 Total United States j jlOO. 0 j 0 j 100.0 "' 2,470 100.0 ! . 0 $30 2.2 25 7.7 305 27.9 0 0 0 $205 14.7 82 47.6 13 0.0 0 0 300 359 8.1 0 $65 16 28 0 0 109 | 4.7 1.4 1.4 0 ! flu* C O ' " a a 0 $128 9.2 22 5.6 476 44.2 0 0 626 0 $405 29.0 22 5.6 198 17.7 0 0 0 $100 18 13 0 0 7.2 2.8 0 0 $22 1.6 35 14.7 152 13.3 0 0 625 0 $11 0.8 147 93.0 318 29.1 0 0 475 0 0 0 $141 88.8 52 3.7 0 0 193 3.6 0 ,015 72.8 157 100.0 91 7.4 0 0 1,263 48.9 ! 0 $686 117 116 0 0 ! , j 49.2 | 72.0 | 9.8 I 919 ! 34.3 I 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States... Western States Pacific States Total United States o i 0 2,016 100.0 28 0 417 99.4 571 33 104 36 56 10.0 0 ! 0 328 0 o!i 0 0 2,460 100.0 708 21.6 420 »l o! 0 28.3 2.1 1.7 11.7 74.0 176 | 8.7 86 ! 24.3 204 j 38.6 0 20 78 ! 20.9 361 83.4 46 161 0 0 8.7 8.0 162 ! 0 \. 1 465 10.7 0 ...... 601 ! 10.8 1 0.9 7.5 0 52 74 2.5 19.2 99 8.6 0 353 0 0 128 69 0 0 0 0 226 26.3 0 225 0 550 I 0 i 0 17.5 41.8 0 14.5 1 0 84.9 231 419 100.0 0 0 650 3 i 0.1 267 100.0 258 54.0 0 0 19.0 528 6.9 45 13.6 0 2 0 166 376 57.7 87.7 224 0 0.2 3,396 1,346 52.7 44.3 3,017 0 0 o 0 0 543 0 5 154 0 14.2 384 7.1 0 515 59.9 7,758 1907. New England States 0 0 316 Eastern States 859 100.0 Southern States Middle W e s t e r n S t a t e s 2.3 45 633 100.0 97 42 Western States 0 0 Pacific S t a t e s 0 0 Total United States 1,534 100.0 457 36.7 3.3 12.6 17.8 0 32 57 142 0 0 230 0 3.6 48 0 0 5.5 326 37.9 325 7.3 35 0 65 9.9 58 19.9 271 40.9 505 79.1 151 0.5 0 37.8 7.6 21.4 73 62 8.9 90 11.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 354 10.0 896 51.3 534 23.7 8.4 225 0.2 0 58 146 20 0 0 223 6.6 36.8 0 0 0 60 291 357 0 0 0 84.8 55.0 0 5.1 1 0 337 100.0 169 24.3 113 25.8 124 17.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 37.0 551 25.0 238 0 28 0.5 186 100.0 425 51.2 0 0 0 42 125 2.1 372 64.1 106 110 0 263 639 276 708 106 141 1.1 762 37.7 52.9 24.9 23 ' 0 23.5 2,657 1,357 19.7 2,699 0 0 41.1 6,713 1908. N e w E n g l a n d States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 0 005 44 640 0 0 1,290 0 0 78.2 56 0 3.6 62.9 16.5 746 16 0 17 0.6 86.2 526 67.6 391 45.7 71.7 0 0 0 0 1,289 71.6 464 13.3 0 948 100.0 18 1.2 725 100.0 0 0 505 1,691 100.0 824 283 36 28.1 11.8 64.2 0 0 38.7 0 207 33 153 0 0 393 19.9 10.0 7.0 8.3 0 243 29 133 0 0 404 23.8 7.6 .3.7 9.0 0 30 126 141 0 0 297 0.8 64.7 5.0 1.5 25.7 0 0 133 295 0 68.8 30.1 0 3,584 870 0 0 0 4,306 0 0 0 0 0 0 741 32.9 451 12.4 8,760 1905-1908. January. ^ § o a o3 1 Middle W e s t e r n S t a t e s Western States , Pacific S t a t e s Total United States +i H d ^3 *J <> B ToN e w England States Eastern States Southern States M CD 3d *s ;;-e SP§ 2fed3 O 0 $4,875 129 2,750 0 90.7 4.7 96.4 CD o a W>d c3 •a <u d o EH <> 0 $1,663 119 1,032 36.3 3.3 29.5 0 0 7,754 February. 0 92.9 2,814 30.4 March. +3 § o 003 1o EH 0 $328 212 874 0 0 1,414 M T=!'J d O) «3 sps fe d s> April. M 4^ CD go a d o "fl-S 03 SfS "3 £3 O <> 0) R -< EH 5.9 16.8 34.9 $1,237 155 1,227 0 0 29.7 6.7 45.2 2,618 30.2 0 7.6 ^ M M CD § V a &a o 03 'e3 O July. June. May. u gd H <> 0 $898 202 20.8 § CD a "*V S£§ C3 3 fed t> d o> o 03 •a o E-t 12.0 1,847 0 0 67.7 2,947 32.2 o . d" fe cu-Q a 03 "£ f d O <> M 21.9 $467 183 335 0 0 10.5 9.6 5.9 985 2.5 0 7.7 18.1 13.5 M d d o d cp "M 5£§ a 03 H 0 1,777 M CD T3 § ^ 0 $958 158 661 0 August. 03 3 •aO fed <> Ei 0 $463 435 382 6.6 39.5 4.6 0 0 1,279 5.0 September. _^ 3o a s •a o EH 0 $100 854 1,518 0 0 2,472 M • CD ^dr fe O SPS QJ d <> 2.0 90.7 58.8 24.3 October. ^j X CD § 12 H' d S o a o3 ^ -^ 5f a 03 rj CD d r> O t^ . 0 $90 870 589 0 0 1,549 < 1.8 88.2 20.5 November. X 4J d d o CD d CD '~fj a 3 03 sps 2 2 CD d O <> H 0 $1,390 542 853 0 27.6 59.1 34.2 0 10.5 2,785 24.3 December. ^j Year. K d d o CD •gh' a 3 "•3 EH ^ 03 sfS CD d O t> 0 $1,230 510 776 § o a 1ao EH 0 0 $13,698 4,368 12,842 0 0 0 > m 30,908 O 2,516 27.3 54.2 26.0 23.7 a The manager of the Memphis clearing house reports that during the months of October, November, and December about $100,000 daily is shipped, mainly to Mississippi and Arkansas, This is in addition to the amount given above. This money returns to Memphis during the months following the cotton season and is in turn shipped to St. Louis, Chicago, Cincinnati, and New York. > o 2J & *? » — •a TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. to PACIFIC STATES, o RECEIPTS OF CASH REPORTED.& [Amounts expressed in thousands.^] * 1 o a < From— New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States June. May. I o a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 a < < < August. July. 4^ 4J 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $3 17.6 3 April. a i i March. t—i 1 I < < 0 0 0 0 0 $1,650 63.1 $2,615 100.0 0 0 0 50 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 47.1 0 0 $3 17.6 3 0.1 1,650 61.7 2,673 100.0 § MS o a MS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $17 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 0 0 0 0 0 a i a < 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $10 58.8 10 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 October. November. 1 i 1 o < < 17 i 1 September. Amount. February. o a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0)-° a 0 0 0 0 0 1,251 ! a < 0 0 $1,250 47.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5.9 0 Year. •+•3 < 0 December. o o o o o o January. Section. 1906.<* 46.8 0 $5,515 0 50 0 42 5,607 S3 i—i o > o 1907. :*: New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 22.9 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 8.6 0.8 3 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 17.1 6 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 16.7 2 5.7 4 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 41.7 10 28.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 25.0 10 28.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 11.4 15 13 4 1.8 1.5 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 100.0 30 85.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 25.0 0 0 0 0 600 97.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 100.0 617 100.0 0 0 0 0 35 100.0 0 0 425 68.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1,642 0 0 25 108 42 3 0 600 91.3 657 100.0 425 64.5 1,780 6.0 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States T Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 110 100.0 0 0 50 100.0 58 65.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 88 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 47.7 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 9.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 21.6 218 100.0 88 39.3 42 17.8 8 1.9 19 0 7.0 0 0 0 0 o 1 2.0 35 39.8 36 15.0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12.0 7 8.0 13 4.2 0 0 0 0 0 7 14.0 0 0 7 1.4 0 0 0 4 7 8.0 8.0 0 0 0 0 4 11 3.3 4 0 Kj O O Ul Ul o1 o 0 o! > Pi 0 0 4.5 0 0 0 3 5 6.0 5.7 0 8 1.9 0 0 0 0 0 7 14.0 5 5.7 12 3.7 0 110 0 o 78 278 466 O 1906-1908. January. February. Section. May. April. March. July. June. £3 SH d 5-< »*9 September. August. as ®-2 1 "o From— New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western S t a t e s . . . Western States Pacific States 0 $110 0 0 0 50 33.3 35.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $91 36.2 Total United States 229 33.6 13.1 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 $51 27.5 51 6.1 0 $1,650 0 0 2 10 1," 0 33.3 0 5.6 4.9 0 $2,615 0 50 5 37 33.3 13.9 32.4 0 9.0 56.1 0 4.0 6.5 21.3 2,707 36.3 5.7 1.5 0 21.0 0 0 0 0 $19 40 o October. 8f9 0 11.0 2.7 2.6 1.1 Year. December. d ^ .SS "•9 38.0 48.2 November. «-9 o3 B 0 0 $600 32.4 0 0 0 0 0 4 1.5 604 $5 617 0 0 3 40 33.3 33.3 0 2.0 35.2 34.0 0 $1,675 0 0 7 6 1,6 0 4.7 $5 7,267 0 50 103 428 o The only banks in the group to report were those of San Francisco, including Oakland. b For detailed figures by States see Table 9 in the Appendix, pp. 353-357. c The totals sometimes show a difference of one or two thousand dollars from the sums obtained by adding the individual figures as they appear in this table, the discrepancy being due to the fact that the totals represent the sums of the individual figures carried out to more decimal places. d No figures for 1905 are available. O 7,853 O TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. PACIFIC -3 STATES—Continued. SHIPMENTS OF CASH REPORTED. [Amounts expressed in thousands.] 1906 January. February. March. April. Section. 1 "3 § S < o a AM § a 3 1 < Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s # a a3 a* 3 3 O O a a 5 1 3 August. July. MS 3 L O a s < 0 0 0 0 30 25 175 5.9 3.4 8.1 0 20 20 59 4.0 0 1.2 0 $150 0 0 35 151 9.6 564 13.0 134 0 335 15 3.0 35 6.9 20 0 30 6.8 43 0.3 38 272 4.2 450 0 0 $334 0 $35 $347 17.8 0 0 3 3^ MS 1 < § O 3 o a 0 $936 51.3 16.4 0 20 111 692 $37 0 4.0 61.9 38.8 145 160 1,035 28.7 95.2 59.2 120 89 6.7 0 505 100.0 167 100.0 976 55.7 $323 0 6.1 3,438 100.0 1,759 49.2 1,663 46.3 0 10.2 0 3^ 4-2 *£ 3 3 •d 3 a M 3 December. O < a «S ©'" •O 3 tH 0 0 8.2 9.1 $163 0 7.3 $179 23.8 46.9 1,723 100.0 $194 0 220 132 1,484 43.6 76.2 85.8 185 106 36.6 220 58.5 136 1,088 62.3 628 43.6 78.9 35.0 1,969 2,030 57.4 1,542 42.6 1,163 31.1 0.1 55.5 ! 1 < 0 0 AM 1 T3 Year. H 3 "3 << 0 0 $1,790 100.0 6.6 November. a -t-3 a a October. a P 3 5 17.0 9.1 $194 September. a -t-s O < To— N e w England States Eastern States 1 I June. May. a 0 $4,681 0 1,515 1,031 8,092 15,319 Total United States. 0 337 0 45.2 0 502 67.4 0 261 135 35.8 79.8 11.9 33.2 0 377 100.0 146 68.2 318 0 169 512 1,177 24.6 1,318 0 0 35.0 77 0 10.3 126 180 47.7 10.6 115 179 93.4 1,168 84.8 52.3 40 196 1,420 67.8 146 724 1,788 61.9 1,733 58.5 1,111 0 16.9 0 229 0 30.5 68.2 0 94 25.0 20.6 0 0 0 0 745 100.0 30.7 469 0 63.0 405 0 54.4 0 0 0 11.9 60 1,341 41.9 63.0 96 741 42.9 26.0 45 113 1,449 51.5 69.6 1,664 54.3 1,306 32.5 2,012 75.6 0 125 0 0 Total United States 0 0 1,757 100.0 0 1,169 62.2 0 531 0 21.1 0 281 0 3,333 0 H H > 0 0 16 758 2.5 27.1 1,087 1,568 12,683 o 0 18,671 57 0 7.7 35.8 209 100.0 1,943 100.0 0 0 193 1,356 15.9 91.9 63.9 11 954 0 39.1 2,354 96.5 2,412 100.0 1,022 15.1 774 0 135 0 0 0 48.4 35 61.4 55 0 357 61.3 27.6 0 57 100.0 24 11.3 385 31.6 18.7 1,109 30.5 946 0 0 10 17.5 0 0 0 0 40.3 64.5 60 69.4 47.5 442 39.7 57 303 19.9 259 13.7 47 163 2,271 100.0 1,653 63.0 901 18.0 600 0 913 17 497 0 32.2 0 0 0 703 0 29.5 0 480 o 0D 5.0 0 42 0 0 662 > 0 0 0 16.8 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States.... Western States Pacific States O o 1907 New England States Eastern States Southern Stales Middle Western States Western States Pacific States 3 H i—i 17.8 20.7 327 0 8.0 10 34 17.5 27.4 437 39.0 808 12.4 0 213 0 0 306 0 6.6 0 0 0 40 37.1 866 100.0 58 719 990 1,212 36.6 0 0.6 0 66.1 0 0 203 0 0 0 0 66.1 496 0 18.9 0 0 79 100.0 7,127 0 112 79.1 58 429 37.8 314 21.5 571 5,169 23.3 690 5.4 889 17.3 12,979 O 3 1906-1908. Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 0 $2,288 0 392 51.4 0 $2,018 857 22.7 15.9 0 170 241 992 3,719 42.9 3,421 183 34.3 14.2 42.3 17.2 35.3 0 F- < 0 0 5.1 $979 0 18.6 4.9 115 228 10.2 1,646 23.7 50.9 26.8 1,738 54.3 27.6 1,037 42.3 10.6 $2,681 0 540 316 2,674 3,333 31.0 2,467 19.5 2,359 15.1 6,211 $1,176 0 251 261 j> o K < 0 o EH 0 F> < 0 53.4 $1,885 0 44.0 $1,155 0 26.3 $1,088 0 35.6 53.8 67.7 48.8 77 231 1,818 34.7 38.7 32.1 200 19.4 13.2 307 2,921 58.0 55.9 180 322 3,944 58.6 88.0 61.6 4,011 34.1 4,583 44.8 5,534 62.9 i> o EH ?- o EH < 0 $532 <\ 0 $423 0 185 175 8.8 0 erage inde number. X p- o EH < 0 5.0 $675 12.2 0 220 0 $15,291 0 2,745 3,170 25,944 47,150 4,146 2,471 41.5 46.4 231 1,700 14.5 60.5 27.9 5,432 60.2 3,254 21.0 2,826 16.1 i o EH 9.0 26.5 80.8 88.3 355 399 Year. tal amoun December. tal amoun X erage inde number. X tal amoun o H ^ November. erage inde number. i> < X October. tal amoun • erage inde number. o H X -w tal amoun f> < X September. erage inde number. $393 0 60 276 o H X tal amoun 24.4 0 49.1 p> < tal amoun o H erage inde number. p* < tal amoun o EH X August. erage inde number. • M July. tal amoun • X June. erage inde number. • tal amoun erage inde aumber. p. -, < May. erage inde number. o E-i X April. tal amoun ToNew England States... p» < • March. erage inde number. o e X erage inde number. tal amoun • Section. February. tal amoun January. > CO O > «• No figures for 1905 are available. O > TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. CITY OF NEW Y O R K > RECEIPTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands.*>] 1905. January. February. April. March. Section. i < < flu' a 1 o a < a < 1 •4-3 S3 o August. July. a a 1 June. May. •3 1—1 J o a < *£ cy" 'd M 1 L flu" o o a cu-" a a < < September. a i l October. <y" i •a o 1, a < November. MS < M December. 1 a i flu* T3 Pi M o a i o a Year. 1 o a Pi < < From— N e w England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States $2,492 71.8 5,993 50.0 6,666 100.0 6,853 100.0 7 54.5 1,356 100.0 $671 4,086 3,119 2,616 8 1,145 0.7 23.9 40.2 37.0 63.6 75.2 $749 3.8 9,654 100.0 1,854 18.9 126 0 5 36.4 1,310 94.6 $1,745 3,419 1,990 $1,423 30.1 447 3 1,205 42.6 14.8 21.2 4.8 18.2 82.2 2,898 1,855 1,286 3 564 7.7 18.9 17.2 18.2 7.0 23,367 100.0 11, 645 37.8 6,698 11.6 8,809 22.8 8,029 18.6 7 543 41.6 7.2 29.8 11.6 54.5 4.6 $1,332 3,091 2,062 1,219 3 1,309 26.5 10.3 22.4 16.2 18.2 94.5 $971 12.4 3,072 10.1 996 4.5 144 0.3 12 100.0 757 29.7 8,537 21.3 9,016 23.9 5,952 $1,717 2,865 2,502 903 7.7 $652 2,454 731 167 5 504 4,513 0 1.6 $815 2,336 0 0.6 36.4 1,646 286 6.4 0 8 742 2.4 63.6 27.9 $3,103 2,392 1,784 1,402 1 '542 0 5,833 7.0 9,224 0 15.4 95.6 0.8 17.7 19.0 0 4.5 $3,215 100.0 4,308 26.9 2,381 27.8 2,146 30.0 0 1 693 22.2 $18,885 25.0 12,744 114,367 43.7 39,568 27,586 17,595 > H i—i 63 10,670 O o 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 3,814 81.9 6,316 100.0 8,674 100.0 2,446 99.1 44 15.5 2,775 87.1 840 3,292 3,029 161 16 1,697 6.3 25.7 28.6 4.2 4.4 48.9 2,116 3,252 3,599 167 13 1,307 38.8 24.7 35.8 4.5 3.2 35.1 2,341 3,395 3,097 693 11 699 44.5 28.2 29.5 26.3 2.4 13.6 24,069 100.0 9,035 20.2 10,454 27.7 10,236 26.6 1,530 23.8 5,138 71.0 2,829 26.1 2,468 100.0 4.0 15 1,169 30.2 13,149 42.0 1,179 14.9 3,470 30.0 2,541 22.4 399 14.1 46 16.3 3,139 100.0 10,774 29.4 > 2,182 3,458 1,988 936 11 1,076 40.4 29.7 15.4 36.4 2.4 26.9 1,740 3,349 2,231 366 25 9,651 23.5 1,264 2,690 767 59 17.1 10.9 0 0 257 100.0 1,096 27.7 1,624 2,248 2,134 115 123 1,406 26.2 317 0 19.6 4.6 3.1 0 0.1 5,228 0 6,133 7,650 12.9 592 3,047 1,133 868 29.2 27.1 18.5 12.7 7.9 19.6 8,579 17.8 134 5 4.8 0 17.3 2.3 46.8 38.6 4,525 100.0 6,091 94.5 1,667 11.4 1,223 48.3 44 15.5 315 0 13,865 45.8 23,747 45,746 33,689 9,167 610 15,864 128,823 > o o 1907. U2 GO 13.0 44.6 47.7 28.3 6.2 23.4 9,648 25.5 12,719 40.5 516 8.2 191 0.8 7 2,658 100.0 30.5 3,890 9,181 100.0 Middle Western States 1,367 Western States Pacific S t a t e s 59 41.1 2,597 97.7 24,914 100.0 1,311 4,363 5,066 1,308 14 657 2,263 1,328 7,471 100.0 Total United States 975 19.5 30.0 26.5 0 1.6 35.6 3,544 4,239 100.0 Eastern States Southern States 29.8 1,532 13.5 36.2 12.1 N e w England States 10,662 3,398 8 1,947 31.9 3,892 36.2 4,521 40.8 4,132 100.0 6 0 512 17.8 15,010 51.7 2,007 2,863 3,165 2,088 40 515 33.7 17.9 23.6 48.1 26.4 18.0 2,859 59.0 4,365 44.7 4,905 2,653 17.1 2,095 1,703 38.4 478 9 2.3 2,295 86.1 10,678 30.6 13,884 46.2 9,230 954 2.3 54.3 10.0 973 4,278 1,314 264 6 7.3 0 792 28.6 23.5 11 1,046 2.9 43.1 0.1 1.9 3.9 38.3 1,129 4,110 1,308 377 8 1,130 7,886 16.9 8,062 2,394 45.2 5,729 69.0 3,229 24.4 1,134 23.9 135 100.0 1,172 43.1 7.0 875 0 40.1 0 0 1,859 1,324 0.2 4.7 237 1.2 1.6 71 46 50.4 41.5 17.8 4,412 0 13,793 45.8 140,898 3,709 57.3 28,312 7,908 63.7 76,705 1,552 0 58,429 2,567 15.7 76,510 18 0.9 1,718 1,161 1.6 23,909 16,915 25.6 265,583 0 21,548 51,269 39,517 13,795 374 14,395 1908. N e w England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 5,646 100.0 10,259 100.0 9,672 100.0 12,419 77.0 975 100.0 3,033 100.0 42,004 100.0 1,473 8.0 4,357 8.8 5,857 53.0 2,243 13.7 254 25.4 2,295 61.2 1,557 6,624 7,433 9,141 27 2,515 16,479 24.3 27,297 9.9 2,020 20.1 2,595 43.8 5,710 29.7 7,054 72.4 8,201 81.9 7,096 56.6 14,972 92.9 13,715 1.9 12 0.3 66 72.8 2,293 61.1 56.4 33,208 73.9 2,045 32.7 50.5 68.3 85.1 5.9 48.1 1,911 17.7 8,012 65.3 5,802 52.3 16,109 100.0 250 24.9 2,202 56.3 32,571 72.0 34,286 77.1 2,467 9,091 4,271 3,441 45 1,929 29.9 81.9 33.5 21.2 3.7 42.0 21,244 38.5 1,366 5.6 1,110 0 1,829 15.9 2,629 5,059 19.6 4,109 4.9 4,733 14.6 3,789 2,654 13.6 1,684 2,054 6.2 2,153 1,584 9.6 229 1.6 1.2 50 0.1 40 23 1.4 9 0 11 0.2 28 2,129 52.5 1,131 0 1,717 30.8 1,459 33.5 0 7.4 0 2.0 17.2 12,815 13.5 8,272 0 10,394 6.3 10,098 5.4 l—I o 2 1905-1908. January. Section. "2 d o 0 c3 "ca o February. X Xi . •§! 2§ < d d o I ! I* d »-< S?0 gd March. d o 0 C3 +J o X 03 TJ . d t-< • S 03 03^ 23 s>d April. "3 d o -^ d as g d o 0 CS 03 o •a < o J u l V- June. May. M 0) Xi . d *-• 03 •JM <*"% 2d ^d -t-5 d § I "is o < X 03 as Is £d <1 d d o 1 © d *-< I* 2d *C8 "o August. d d o | "o3 o M 03 xi . d *-* October. September. d d 1 if 2d 03 X 03 T3 . £ « 03 Scd 2§ »d <1 *d 1 12.4 27.8 11.7 7.5 27.3 32.6 $3,327 13,888 4,862 794 30 2,998 0.7 17.3 15.6 25,899 4.2 +5 d 03 § s 03 'oS November. d d o ©•9 SP0 2| o "oa o t3 4M . 03 December. "3 d o Sort I ©a <1 "oa o 23 H 03 XJ . . 3 . 03 03 rQ 2d £d Year. £ g 1 From— N e w England States Eastern States Southern States Middle W e s t e r n S t a t e s Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States $16,191 88.4 30,039 87.5 34,193 100.0 23,085 76.5 1,085 52.8 9,761 96.2 $4,312 114,354 100.0 $7,417 16,887 18,354 17,420 40 4,854 30.1 29.3 45.1 38.1 6.8 45.1 $7,495 18,982 16,301 21,601 90 4,290 29.6 41.4 38.5 75.6 7.0 25.8 $6,814 17,210 14,010 19,499 343 6,399 27.0 30.1 32.0 43.5 30.5 44.7 $8,840 20,005 10,974 7,299 68 6,609 39.0 41.7 22.1 28.1 6,107 18.0 49.6 38.4 15.3 10.8 59.5 6.7 62.4 $5,031 16,385 7,976 2,572 66 4,546 54,097 30.3 64,972 41.0 68,759 46.1 64,275 39.6 53,795 33.0 36,576 $5,954 23,074 16,284 5,536 285 7,795 7.1 23.7 33.5 15.8 23.6 71.3 47,821 28.2 15,625 14,268 9,625 53 1.6 1.7 10.1 9.6 $5,037 13,869 5,775 772 284 3,453 24.8 15.1 198 3,341 75.6 63.5 15.9 29.5 29.1 16.7 31,384 10.8 57,317 40.2 $8,231 4,685 11.8 16.4 5.4 1.8 41.4 32.0 30,422 9.0 10,288 7,395 1,794 223 38.8 $13,843 0.2 24,036 8,829 10.7 7,070 5.6 $92,492 649,671 213,288 159,221 117,067 2,765 64,838 a F o r d e t a i l e d figures b y S t a t es see T a b l e 9 in t h e A p p e n d i x , p p . 288-298. &The t o t a l s s o m e t i m e s s h o w a difference of one or t w o t h o u s a n d dollars from t h e s u m s o b t a i n e d b y a d d i n g t h e i n d i v i d u a l figures as t h e y a p p e a r in 1.his t a b l e , t h e d i s c r e p a n c y b e i n g d u e to t h e fact t h a t t h e totals repres e n t t h e s u m s of t h e i n d i v i d u a l fie u r e s carried o u t t o m o r e decimal places. TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities 1905-1908—Continued. OC C I T Y O F N E W YORK—Continued. SHIPMENTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands.] 1905. January. Section. Total United States. June. cw" a 4,765 4.2 a < a < cu^O 73 September. August. July. l, MS 0 $1,531 13.9 $5,075 5.2 2,514 0 2,926 1,089 0 416 1.6 1,273 0 299 2.2 0 0 0 0 4 3.6 5 17.9 4,035 May. 3 MS •a $958 2,701 279 96 0 1 April. March. I a < ToNew England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States.., Pacific States February. 3 P3^M * G November. December. B a < 100.0 $4,968 97.4 $1,224 6.5 $3,026 50.2 $1,578 15.1 $4,165 77.9 $3,292 56.7 $2,981 49.1 $2,191 29.9 $3,935 72.3 5,584 85.7 4,978 68.8 6,097 100.0 5,009 69.6 3,838 37.0 11.5 3,152 17.8 3,599 30.3 3,501 27.5 2,760 6.9 672 4.6 2,423 25.3 2,785 29.5 8,766 100.0 4,904 54.5 3,672 40.0 3,374 36.5 9.5 815 6.3 824 6.4 232 1.5 3,980 41.5 9,463 100.0 2,132 21.7 4,964 52.0 7,328 77.2 9,152 96.7 12.6 157 0.7 760 7.1 Q 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28.6 20 71.4 28 100.0 15 53.6 25 89.3 0 14.3 0 2 7.1 5 17.9 10,367 36.3 9,709 32.5 5,727 9.7 7,501 19.9 Year. fci ffi.fi CD'" CD'" October. 10,741 38.4 20,279 93.1 19,782 90.2 17,847 79.1 19,316 87.6 21,485 100.0 $34,924 46,659 30,019 39,836 3 113 Total United States. 4,443 4,855 390 2,086 29.8 3,284 6.2 17.8 0 17.2 3,816 862 284 0 5.9 1.6 0 0 34 0 1 18 0 0.1 19.9 1.0 0.3 46 0.4 11,792 16.2 8,280 0 14,217 27.4 5,146 6,062 570 2,392 44.1 38.4 2.2 4,893 6,490 1,260 2,716 38.9 45.7 10.8 2,982 0 5,666 4,157 1,422 5.8 12.9 0 4,848 861 22.7 85.0 100 9,543 100.0 4,007 1.0 42.0 77.2 12,669 20.3 85 24,987 1 2,100 0 54.7 17.7 5.9 108 17.3 0 1.1 13,583 24.5 3,233 3,961 Total United States 5,584 36.4 0 4,308 0 489 550 1.4 3 0.2 43 1.2 10,977 4.8 4,345 24.6 5,519 14.9 883 4.3 2,574 16.3 0 0 145 4.3 13,466 11.1 52.7 4,456 1.8 1,067 6.4 3,634 24.1 0 0 63 1.8 16,523 18.9 8,346 62.6 7,337 37.3 677 2.1 4,084 27.4 0 0 36 0.9 20,480 3,751 4,377 595 355 0 20 19.0 0.8 1.2 0 0 0.4 0 29.0 4,543 26.5 4,390 1.0 489 0 470 0.8 0 0 30 0.7 9,922 2.1 5.1 2.5 4.2 7,891 100.0 7,609 64.9 23.0 54.2 1.0 2,233 6.355 2 3.6 6 0 3 210 3.0 2.1 4,814 37.3 4,891 18.4 8,417 100.0 11,642 100.0 100 100.0 52 0.5 5.9 24,096 73.1 26,995 86.5 29,916 100.0 727 1,275 1 10.2 351 9,548 2.0 4,045 21.7 9,663 100.0 5,054 58.1 8,020 68.6 4,409 25.2 6,197 23.2 1,058 6.3 1,921 11.5 0 0 39 1.0 3,992 21.3 4,819 29.1 5,062 9.3 5,087 9.6 1,957 16.2 6,148 62.4 6,463 45.0 6,875 48.0 1 0.1 100 5.1 522 16.0 6 0 11.5 17,997 22.7 23,035 35.5 20.5 2,542 1.9 1.9 2,665 30.7 0 3,331 4,922 46.9 76.4 2,813 3,559 550 1,086 9.5 4,689 100.0 18.4 5,739 100.0 39 100.0 13,624 3,888 6,006 18.5 37.5 3,300 5,954 3,047 4,610 2 33.1 7,483 2,203 184 39.1 2.0 1.9 17,737 43.7 6.5 36.6 88.4 18.2 12,292 100.0 12,437 100.0 8,123 84.2 13,935 100.0 624 31.7 951 29.4 3,747 18.9 9,625 65.4 9,555 100.0 13,189 94.5 1,968 100.0 3,221 100.0 41,305 82.0 36.3 2,535 4,030 1,261 30.5 46.2 2,723 4,267 30.3 57.0 74.2 0 3.3 18,471 100.0 48,362 100.0 Total United States. 1,489 9.0 1,335 5.8 1,383 3,343 23.0 3,884 3.6 685 11.3 23 59.0 456 100.0 308 41.3 4.2 4,311 171 39 279 6,275 9.1 6.8 55.7 1.2 0 5,910 100.0 3,676 34.2 116 0 4.1 0 0 49 5.1 9.6 273 0 86 17.8 61 0 12.2 5,669 4.6 5,990 7.0 10,036 37.1 91 2 0.9 1,051 0 2,279 25.3 3,697 34.9 4.2 52.2 3,767 281 37.3 3.6 227 0 3.3 66 0 0 0.5 0 10 0.9 18 2.7 11 25.6 1.1 6,564 11.2 5,056 0 6,864 13.5 307 3,013 0 6 0 0 8,074 22.5 2,046 2,722 204 67 1,056 67.0 11.0 20,063 54.5 213,883 o o 64,883 w w I—I 1,752 4,439 7,789 6,059 1,254 1,481 0 1.6 80.5 42.0 63.7 45.9 22,774 34.8 247,563 5,493 91.4 5,618 100. 0 1,483 29.9 73,234 38,830 60,109 3,950 6,557 10 21 20.1 5.1 1,457 20 24.9 0 1,183 2 60 12.0 82 16.9 46 8.9 32,207 46,194 12,372 18,126 96 906 13,422 62.4 9,093 80.1 14,117 67.5 109,901 25.0 H > 53,585 68,312 32,326 43,783 262 15,615 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States > o 1907. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States o 151,554 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States > 51.3 O 3 1905-1908. January. Section. i M a> T3 . d f-> •d a> o •a February. 1 I M cu 'S d £• 3 o £d o March. 4^5 1 -a EH o ToNew England States Eastern States Southern States Middle W e s t e r n S t a t e s Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States $12,474 15,207 1,437 3,417 26 518 33,079 18.8 $10,495 11.5 15,733 0.9 2,469 7.5 3,248 14.8 2 26.2 233 7.5 32,180 12.6 $18,907 14.1 17,755 4.0 2,897 5.3 7,338 1.3 1 8.0 199 5.0 47,097 8 April. • d <u ! $a a 23 < c3 O 8 as 1I £d 3 <v a M d o i 3 o EH July. June. May. S3 £d August. +3 ! 3"o EH -•a . a j-i SH d -4 11 'o EH September. g d *-• "3 § a ?! i 4^> as ! 5-1 d -a <4 EH October. d 03 73 O •a 4-3 November. M d +3 *H d d o s?a 1 < "o ! CD .3 <3. December. d 8 § *?a o g a cu a EH EH Year. 4^> d d o I "o EH o EH 39.2 $11,266 20.9 15,640 in 4,412 7,242 5.5 1 0 | 0 150 2.5 408 i 37,570 14.4 38,969 50.9 $24,117 26.9 20,655 4.8 2,877 14.2 7,833 0.3 85 8.6 9,645 74.7 33.8 4.8 15.3 21.3 32.8 $9,008 15,830 2,996 3,700 1 4,033 6.4 $15,514 18.0 16,506 2,446 5.7 2,954 13.4 65,212 44.0 35,568 13.1 22.4 0.3 10.6 16.5 $18,590 8.6 19,174 9.4 7,525 57.5 $15,487 27.8 25,256 19.6 24,657 54.4 22,766 31.9 142 26.6 245 15.9 0.3 1.8 23,367 16 564 14.0 69,236 •50.6 88,553 38.6 $22,900 67.9 25,865 80.1 24,167 59.6 34,808 27.0 724 8.5 1,083 55.7 $12,361 54.4 25,758 73.9 17,535 81.6 26,310 1,972 32.9 3,515 28.3 24.5 $14,480 42. (i 62.3 21,020 52.0 49.5 20,129 j 58.8 57.7 18,871 | 45.5 26.8 1 341 45 -R 54.7 2,598 29.9 $185,599 234,399 78.1 109,547 85.4 60.9 64.2 722,901 87,451 78,439 113,547 161,854 4,311 23,191 DO > DO O t"1 fe^ TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. 00 O CITY OF CHICAGO." RECEIPTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed In thousands. &] 1905. January. Section. February. a a §^ *p a 'd < I ©-" 3 < I 1 May. a a +3 s p April. March. s Kg p 53 53 Kg CD-" o a < June. p^ 8 a < P^ Kg a •d p a October. November. a 53 p 53 o September. August. a a i p July. < p § Kg o a 3 < a < Kg 53 Kg p P o a p t-4 < December. a 4-3 PK" a «•" 5 < a 53 fl fe Kg cc" -d p a 53 p 53 O Kg ©'" -d a a < Year. 4-i P g a From— N e w England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 0 0 $5 0.1 125 44.6 5,070 100.0 372 57.6 256 62.6 0 0.3 0 0 75 26.8 1,956 28.2 583 100.0 212 49.7 5,828 2,847 5.4 42.5 0 $21 $75 1,924 144 274 0 0 26.8 27.4 11.8 67.8 0 5 2,191 335 148 0 0.1 1.8 33.6 50.2 31.0 2,417 0 2,684 3.3 $5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $280 100.0 3,794 70.6 89 0.8 181 40.6 0 0 $5 2,756 229 246 1.8 46.6 28.9 59.6 0 $50 3,073 116 4,343 3,236 10.2 0 0 24.0 0 $1,710 317 17.9 53.9 6.2 80.4 $75 75.0 7,710 100.0 85 30.4 2,205 33.9 0 85 286 71.3 3,556 14.2 10,446 100.0 2,974 100 734 387 42 0 22.2 35.7 $100 100. 0 60.4 0.4 18.2 45.6 21.1 0 $4,110 53.4 6,738 0 4,657 1 1,524 312 114 6.9 6,708 0 60.6 0 3,229 316 125 30,609 3,057 2,586 9,859 92.7 61,636 0 $6,109 80 32.8 0.8 89 384 100.0 0 2,155 53.8 $175 0 79.2 28.6 57.5 46.4 24.3 53.3 0 1906. N e w England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 0 1,250 4,777 126 523 0 16.1 78.7 100.0 8.6 59.6 6,942 50.6 266 50 1,800 165 1,374 678 145 5.1 23.2 335 516 0 2.6 19.2 8.1 41.3 58.5 2,600 0 4,213 18.8 0 212 65 1,473 48.8 5.4 94.8 0 0 0 8 0 56 16.6 3,206 56.3 71 0 779 100.0 200 1,700 305 2,353 103 160 20.4 24.7 33.1 51.5 5.0 2.4 5,528 34.1 4,120 200 1,918 112 3,034 17.7 165 444 20.4 21.9 90.2 32.6 14.7 47.2 200 20.4 885 11.3 338 100.0 2,394 33.7 110 6.1 273 20.2 5,167 29.9 4,199 18.6 900 91.8 49.6 7.4 25 1,654 13.2 711 100.0 225 12.6 3,840 7,354 55.4 980 100.0 55.9 200 2,415 74 196 20.7 21.3 0.5 8.0 900 91.8 7,741 100.0 125 37.0 1,180 0 521 70.3 706 88.5 650 20.4 31.1 0 10.2 48.6 79.7 7,596 58.3 11,174 100.0 5,192 30.2 4,330 70 1,945 1907. N e w E n g l a n d States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 0 207 0 2.6 435 100.0 4,616 100.0 0 979 100.0 67 6,305 30.9 200 855 10.5 17.0 9.4 22.9 33.4 87.2 4,321 5.6 1,263 50 1,708 245 700 371 36.7 37.1 0 8.0 10.1 37.3 5,090 15.4 2,743 10 1,145 121 0 1,546 382 0 18 0 2,494 0 0.1 3,630 775 40.6 0 0 200 10.5 600 58.0 15 0 800 10.7 1,809 292 66.4 341 77.9 310 70.6 175 3,028 57.9 2,966 56.3 2,705 49.4 2,431 92 4.7 115 9.0 82 2.8 285 167 16.3 444 44.8 131 12.6 320 31.4 24.4 38.8 42.1 40.9 32.1 8,632 60.6 3,881 0 4,228 4.4 5,620 41.9 400 5,795 J8.6 52 * 9.9 3,232 2,123 461 33.9 1,535 73.9 570 251 24.9 237 20.9 43.8 38.8 18.4 94.4 23.5 22.2 9,482 71.4 6,149 28.9 0 565 22.4 378 0 0.4 40.3 22.2 100.0 30.9 6,888 36.6 800 175 210 442 0 36.5 21.7 46.8 27,430 3,487 5,058 3,183 6.8 67,267 Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States 100 100.0 289 11.5 268 50.8 9,337 100.0 2,307 78.4 500 47.2 12,800 100.0 895 0 0 68.5 33.3 34.6 100.0 6,838 36.1 0 0 357 4,309 1,276 0 0 224 8.9 516 100.0 3,884 27.7 2,492 86.3 242 12.7 126 4,096 1,500 529 0 0.4 22.6 30.5 44.1 51.1 41.7 6,261 29.9 7,358 0 10 273 0 0.6 28.4 41.3 95.2 16.8 167 4,215 1,795 512 0 0 30.8 32.1 56.6 48.8 8,053 49.1 6,689 34.5 0 16 155 4,909 2,701 0 0 0 10 215 3,472 2,814 0 0 0 2,517 100.0 515 99.8 0 1,795 8.5 663 234 44.0 2,740 1,399 12.5 39.8 471 43.3 147 0 5,409 20.8 5,636 23.2 > o w > o O 1,910 100.0 0 7,368 100.0 3,541 50 9.4 84 1,945 29.2 842 28.1 106 0 7.3 3,849 217 235 23.3 9 0 10 0 33.5 34.6 79.7 100.0 0.1 11,726 100.0 4,581 8.9 7,092 40.9 0 0 0 100 6.0 499 19.8 0 52 7.9 8.6 5,376 47.5 0 48.0 17.4 0 2,477 157 600 5,585 33,527 2,131 28,893 2,961 4,010 77,107 1908. N e w England States O 26,116 1,547 • 4,277 5! 24,327 882 0 0 2,077 82.5 167 30.8 0 150 12 2,342 7.3 2,440 1,036 24.3 518 2.3 464 197 6.7 348 26.9 529 0 51.1 6,357 2,783 48,915 18,963 5,020 5,819 26.2 3,469 0 6,920 37.0 82,139 o 1905-1908. January. § Section. Oi o 1 1 "3 M CD February. "8 M CD d O d *-< a a •1 "3 o 03 d O "3 o March. 1 o a 8 «cS cuXl ^a 1 ej April. i o 1 M CD T3 . d *-• §o SPg o o O EH June. May. -(J 8 ••d . .as £d EH EH d d o a 03 3 © +3 CD •« . d >H 8P| »H §o a d £d <1 03 September. August. July. M 8 as §?a 2d 1 o 9 o ss a> 4^ •O . d *-" • d CD &a CD a 3o a 3o 03 EH EH 8 •3 • CD-Q *s CD fl < O October. +3 1 3 o EH From— OS New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States November. 8 •o . d *"• C5 CD CD-C SPg r »-i d ! 3 O EH December. 8 4^> .as spa ! I 3"o r >i d EH CD .as Year. i o CD.C 1 CD rt 3 "o EH $100 1,751 1,094 23,800 2,871 2,258 25.0 7.6 68.5 100.0 36.2 67.4 $200 1,496 547 9,446 2,439 2,478 2.6 5.0 31.0 23.1 52.3 73.9 31,874 56.0 16,606 11.8 $750 10.5 4,767 17.3 766 43.9 8,327 17.1 3,434 50.8 1,033 29.5 19.0 19,078 $975 6,210 535 12,349 2,031 1,004 .15.3 20.8 31.0 43.4 26.0 25.2 0 0 $38 0.2 832 55.7 14,874 56.1 2,976 26.3 1,677 50.5 $400 2,500 787 12,029 2,271 1,333 7.7 8.2 48.4 40.2 25.8 42.1 $800 2,704 777 11,371 3,324 1,287 23,105 32.0 20,398 22.7 19,320 19.8 20,263 13.0 9.0 49.3 38.0 38.3 40.9 $1,775 17,910 396 8,722 2,656 1,232 52.2 62.7 22.9 23.4 53.4 38.1 $1,380 30.2 11,789 55.5 860 48.8 6,008 9.9 1,695 41.0 622 7.9 $2,910 21,843 343 6,992 2,085 1,252 73.0 85.7 19.4 13.7 42.1 34.9 $200 5.1 0 0 10,216 34.6 $9,102 33.2 95 4.4 309 17.8 6,983 12.9 14,947 55.3 1,095 14.8 1,590 42.0 1,391 51.7 1,106 30.6 22.9 32,692 61.9 22,355 35,426 69.9 19,980 29.3 23.2 27,054 44.4 $9,490 90,327 7,343 135,848 28,468 16,674 288,150 a For detailed figures by States see Table 9 in the Appendix, pp. 310-317. b The totals sometimes show a difference of one or two thousand dollars from the sums obtained by adding the individual figures as they appear in this table; the discrepancy being due to the fact that the totals represent the sums of the individual figures carried out to more decimal places. TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. CO to C I T Y O F CHICAGO—Continued. SHIPMENTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands.] 1905. January. February. March. April. May. July. June. August. September. October. November. December. Year. Section. flu' ToNew England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States. 0 $2,815 100.0 100 0 2,162 0 378 0 10 0 5,465 11.4 0 $675 24.0 200 7.3 4,127 16.9 388 0.5 80 18.9 5,469 a a % 11.5 0 $350 525 7,018 2,248 47 10,187 0 0 12.4 $1,130 40.1 $1,002 35.6 755 47.6 330 16.7 30.9 41.8 5,262 26.7 2,174 0.1 917 28.8 448 3.7 100.0 126 31.4 40 8.1 10.0 48.1 8,190 32.6 3,995 0.0 0 $2,552 90.6 260 11.6 3,488 11.4 423 2.4 44 9.2 6,766 $2 a 21.5 0 $1,210 719 5,354 1,217 47 43.0 45.0 27.4 44.9 10.0 8,546 35.4 0 0 0 $1,020 66.9 10,169 68.9 1,442 56.9 104 25.4 12,734 67.9 0 $16 1,475 12,151 748 380 a 0 0 0.6 $1,037 36.8 $1,086 38.6 610 37.1 622 38.0 100.0 85.9 13,791 100.0 7,159 43.0 1,172 42.5 19.8 1,097 38.4 329 86.2 68 15.7 100.0 14,770 83.8 16,864 100 10,107 47.5 0 $1,664 59.1 1,090 72.0 6,688 851 25.3 15.9 10,362 49.5 0 $13,537 7,706 79,542 11,328 1,342 Total United States 0 1,013 30.8 130 1.4 2,662 0.4 0 559 0 13 22.8 1.2 5,310 18.3 609 3.2 40 0.4 0 450 13.5 276 6.9 6,834 28.6 1,214 41.8 132 1.7 0 1,471 44.8 255 6.1 3,892 8.8 1,225 42.5 7,128 100.0 4,377 6,836 8,906 25.4 13,971 53.8 0 752 125 13.8 0 483 14.5 505 15.5 5,878 22.2 670 7.1 149 1.9 14.3 0 4,817 15.0 659 6.4 95 1.2 7,894 7,685 6,141 18.5 > o 0 3,268 100.0 275 6.9 2,597 0 1,553 63.5 203 2.7 19.1 i—i O 113,455 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States > 0 477 93 9.9 0 177 5.1 1,125 38.9 8,988 43.2 2,125 100.0 120 1.5 0 0 11 1,538 54.5 11,924 63.1 1,076 33.0 3.5 0 190 5.5 2,743 100.0 17,385 100.0 1,531 62.1 374 5.1 45.7 14,810 58.5 22,223 100 0 22 0.6 262 12.7 8,615 28.6 2,363 47.2 223 20.2 0 28 660 12,584 1,296 417 0.9 44.9 49.2 23.4 37.7 0 216 1,342 22,329 4,734 1,106 12,534 0 1,368 641 8,419 997 41 41.7 20.7 39.4 28.0 0.4 11,466 39.7 0 204 5.9 1,542 54.7 8,667 41.0 1,317 48.4 56 0.6 11,786 0 9,863 9,247 87,372 13,534 8,613 41.5 128,629 3.4 16.7 17.8 17.8 47.7 0 55 2.1 433 26.5 4,572 7.5 696 10.0 365 33.0 6,078 5,364 88,949 14,563 3,983 17.7 6,121 H > o o 1907. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western S t a t e s . . . Western States Pacific States 0 213 201 3,135 368 38 Total United States, 3,954 9.4 7.8 0 2.7 3.4 0.0 950 68.3 6,414 17.1 850 13.5 59 5.3 8,281 0 1,047 536 9,297 1,576 430 47.5 34.8 32.1 29.7 38.9 16.8 12,886 34.7 0 125 5.4 105 0 3,728 3.1 555 6.9 228 20.6 4,740 3.0 0 1,195 100.0 158 4.3 ,262 0.7 245 0 423 38.2 6,282 9.0 0 1,397 63.5 202 7.8 3,897 4.0 410 3.7 167 15.1 0 690 31.2 206 8.2 4,574 7.5 425 4.0 0 0 6,072 5,895 8.2 7.5 11,485 29.2 14,986 42.8 9.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0 83 311 6,542 1,045 528 29,726 100.0 8.4 0 118,937 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western S t a t e s . . . Western States Pacific States Total United States 1 14.3 4,048 47.8 92 7.2 1,692 0 167 0 64 9.7 6,063 16.9 0 0 500 3.4 57 4.3 3,058 12.4 429 23.0 124 20.1 0 0 4,440 52.8 6 0 2,094 3.6 308 12.4 54 8.0 0 0 8,210 100.0 60 4.5 2.027 3.0 219 4.6 91 14.4 4,168 6,902 24.0 10,607 55.6 0.7 7 100.0 5,747 69.1 142 11.4 2,276 5.3 216 4.3 26 3.1 8,414 36.9 0 0 8,196 99.8 254 20.7 1,868 1.6 321 13.5 28 3.5 10,666 56.1 0 0 1,800 19.7 52 3.8 2,048 3.2 178 1.0 0 4,085 0 0 768 229 6,326 524 82 0 0 0 0 5.8 6.7 231 0 1,071 89.0 18.6 965 80.2 42.0 12,734 100.0 10,715 81.7 31.3 1,306 100.0 1,007 73.7 5.0 37 12.8 585 100.0 7,928 32.7 15,821 100.0 13,521 0.4 0 0 677 1,032 5.6 7,207 49.9 571 35.5 14 1.0 0 0 1,098 10.9 1,202 100.0 4,587 26.2 743 50.6 6.8 47 9,501 7,677 85.8 46.1 30.6 8 36,406 5,162 56,632 5,987 1,160 105,354 O 3 1905-1908. January. February. March. April. June. May. July. A ugust. September. ; October. November. December. Year. x Is? Section. d fc .d <v beg <u d c3 B <x> d ToNew England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western S t a t e s . . . Western States Pacific States Total United States $1 3.6 0 8,088 47.0 $1,934 523 4.1 1,332 9,651 0.1 18,909 1,471 2,276 0.7 125 3.3 303 19,858 7.1 24,754 0 0 12.6 $6,287 20.3 1,343 16.2 25,242 10.1 5,345 11.2 663 10.7 0 0 0 31.6 $10,936 47.6 18.2 1,175 14.6 26.5 14,909 10.4 46.0 2,915 20.7 14.7 7,573 41.6 38,881 33.1 37,508 36.3 o> d 0 0 0 0 $7 25.0 12,212 76.2 $12,628 67.1 $4,177 27.1 905 9.8 1,221 13.9 1,070 14.3 10,309 1.5 15,131 9.8 16,793 13.3 2,461 17.9 1,823 6.7 2,478 14.1 692 13.0 387 7.4 150 2.8 0 0 $967 3.1 2,636 34.3 34,098 45.7 6,454 58.9 528 15.0 26,586 44,682 16.3 31,190 26.1 24,667 13.2 £g a> d 0 ; 0 0 0 0 $286 0.4 j $2,134 14.4 $3,213 4,637 69.8 j 5,766 81.5 2,606 49,392 74.5 | 64,220 95.4 29,327 4,426 44.1 | 8,369 68.6 3,785 1,645 60.3 | 1,846 49.1 650 43.9 | 60,386 71.3 82,334 d& a? .a s Sg o> d a 0 0 $3,021 40.3 4,267 37.5 24,515 31.0 3,607 16.2 536 0 19.5 63.3 28.4 33.6 14.1 $8 65,884 27,479 312,496 45,412 15,097 95.1 39,582 j 37.8 35,947 32.5 466,375 22.3 > O O 00 00 TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. 00 CITY OF ST. LOUIS." RECEIPTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands.&] 1905. January. February. March. May. April. July. June. August. September. October. November. December. Year. Section. 8.8 From— New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western S t a t e s . . . Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 0 0 o 0 0 0 0 0 o o 0 $2,283 100.0 $1,633 66.8 $1,050 37.0 $1,065 37.8 337 4.4 266 349 5.2 0 407 51 23.9 84 52.1 38 12.8 23 27 25.7 0 10 9.5 0 7 2,643 33.5 2,070 22.2 MX a a 1,437 9.6 1,480 10.5 a < 0 $150 4.3 1,169 43.1 376 107 71.8 5 4.8 1,807 16.9 0 $26 0.7 ,103 39.7 289 1.4 79 47.9 56 53.3 1,553 11.9 a < 0 0 $3,270 94.3 $2,115 61.0 504 9.1 628 15.4 1,100 51.9 1,320 65.6 27 3.4 23 0 40 38.1 0 0 4,941 79.2 4,C 62.2 0 $12 0.3 326 0 465 12.4 140 100.0 10 9.5 953 0 a < M.2 a 0 0 $1,060 30.6 $3,468 100.0 510 9.4 496 8.7 778 31.9 1,873 100.0 96 62.4 59 30.8 10 9.5 95 90.5 2,454 29.8 5,991 100.0 0 $350 1,843 735 56 105 10.1 77.5 29.2 28.2 100.0 3,089 42.4 0 $10,451 12,610 8,295 783 > 32,504 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western S t a t e s . . . Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 0 0 0 2,883 100.0 1,154 28.4 100 75.0 7 6.7 0 0 0 0 1,483 47.6 407 3.5 56 27.2 0 0 0 0 160 4.1 1,881 62.5 442 4.6 61 32.6 0 0 0 0 475 12.2 1,277 39.9 381 2.6 31 0 10 9.6 0 0 1 0 1,499 48.2 434 4.4 52 22.8 104 100.0 4,144 1,946 2,544 2,174 2,090 44.9 5.7 16.4 9.8 8.3 0 0 375 9.6 929 26.9 0 303 46 16.3 0 0 1,653 0 0 365 9.4 874 24.8 312 0.3 75 47.8 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 1,280 32.8 418 7.8 1,257 31.9 123 100.0 0 0 3,078 25.9 60 80.0 905 23.2 329 4.4 912 20.3 35 4.3 0 0 2,241 75 3,902 211 2,951 75 20 100.0 100.0 0 88.4 47.8 19.2 0 0 1,140 29.2 384 6.5 1,921 54.0 37 6.5 20 19.2 0 2,717 916 26.4 3,297 100.0 63 34.8 * 0 0 135 11,320 13,084 13,771 754 161 7,234 100.0 3,502 33.5 95.7 39,225 0 0 1,825 70.4 256 6.7 1,243 83.8 73 17.5 0 0 10 1,445 499 1,456 31 0 100.0 55.7 15.8 100.0 0 0 0 0 2,594 100.0 77 0 129 0 51 8.3 0 0 0 0 1,576 60.8 309 8.7 640 38.5 122 37.9 0 0 10 8,965 15,376 10,003 1,284 40 3,397 79.4 3,441 81.6 2,851 52.2 2,647 42.0 35,678 100.0 400 19.4 541 7.5 796 13.5 393 40.8 0 0 0 0 942 45.6 383 2.4 2,581 100.0 367 37.1 0 0 0 0 144 7.0 0 308 822 14.8 0 104 0 0 0 0 2,065 100.0 1,152 27.3 808 14.1 118 2.0 0 0 6 4,590 20,349 10,898 5,119 20 4,143 82.4 40,982 11.0 1907. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western S t a t e s . . . Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 0 200 7.7 2,746 100.0 687 42.0 151 50.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,077 37.5 653 39.5 46 6.3 30 100.0 0 385 1,564 705 112 0 0 14.8 55.7 43.4 33.8 0 3,784 1,806 2,766 47.9 0 712 271 0 0 0 77.9 43.9 100.0 0 3,139 66.6 0 2,156 0 200 2,706 748 145 10 0 0 0 0 2,167 78.3 891 57.4 195 68.3 0 0 0 0 200 7.7 1,163 40.7 1,258 85.1 38 2.9 0 0 3,809 100.0 3,253 72.2 2,659 42.6 0 0 540 20.8 656 21.7 881 56.7 7.5 0 2,126 16.0 0 0 42 2.0 1,442 36.6 779 12.7 473 52.1 0 0 566 549 255 0 0 3.3 8.3 1.6 21.3 0 40.5 1,438 1.8 1908. 0 505 2,392 1,179 578 0 0 24.5 67.3 32.1 66.9 0 0 0 350 16.9 2,967 85.9 627 5.3 451 49.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,404 100.0 0 517 812 100.0 0 0 0 0 13 0.6 2,588 73.6 559 2.0 527 59.7 0 0 0 0 3,058 988 485 10 0 0 88.8 22.8 53.8 100.0 0 0 61 3.0 1,548 40.1 693 8.5 556 63.8 10 100.0 Total United States 4,654 97.7 4,395 4,733 100.0 3,687 68.8 4,541 94.3 44.4 2,736 O H H > a o w 0 7.7 98.5 46.6 47.5 33.3 New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western S t a t e s . . . Western States Pacific States O 2,136 22.6 4,273 86.3 1,378 CO I—I O J2{ 1905-1908. January. February. March. X 4-i Section. § o 1 ?l > o < From— N e w England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States April. "3 "a s o o o 1 1 1 CD ^2 s? s 1 >• << o En > o cu a & c3§ > *C3 EH <1 O EH 8 1 Is 1 a s > 03 •3 O July. June. May. 3 si •*> August. 8 i II 3 03 o EH EH +3 September. i g 8 o II •s "cl "o EH EH ?! •a October. i December. 8 I I| 1I as Year. +3 o 1 November. ^2 a cp C 03 -4 •a •8 EH O 3 o ^2 >• ! I o EH EH 37 0 4.2 59.4 14.3 20.6 26.7 $545 7,899 2,013 1,023 0 10,217 29.5 11,480 7,160 2,094 913 17 0 8.1 91.8 25.6 61.0 4.1 15,225 68.7 0 $705 10,304 3,286 0 $350 576 0 37 0 3.2 57.3 13.2 45.9 8.8 $351 8,432 2,546 789 129 0 3.0 69.7 20.2 49.0 59.5 5,747 2,176 876 66 0 3.3 46.3 16.8 49.1 38.3 10,480 38.9 12,247 54.9 9,327 32.3 0 4.7 63.8 13.3 44.8 $488 7,086 1,989 880 0 43.5 0 0 0 $462 $4,003 2,268 4,007 450 0 0 29.5 13.3 39.0 32.2 0 $66 3,142 1,452 3,416 641 10 45.0 28.3 3,983 3,449 613 40 0 28.4 27.8 37.5 26.6 9.5 2.4 569 30 11,962 40.6 10,728 26.5 8,727 28.3 17,402 0 $3,877 0 4.7 32.5 40.7 $85 7,349 1,603 7,766 0 $6,708 4,220 7.2 251 115 0 59.1 3.8 42.2 11.4 27.4 105 0 60.1 35.0 45.5 25.7 25.0 74.4 13,722 46.4 16,872 65.6 50.0 58.0 6.9 80.1 36.8 0 $7,346 1,265 4,745 5,480 359 $151 35,326 61,419 42,967 7,940 586 148,389 a F o r d e t a i l e d figures b y S t a t es see T a b l e 9 in t h e A p p e n d i x , p p . 327-334. 6 T h e t o t a l s s o m e t i m e s s h o w si difference of one or t w o t h o u s a n d dollars from t h e s u m s o b t a i n e d b y a d d i n g t h e i n d i v i d u a l figures a s t h e y a p p e a r i n t h i s t a b l e , t h e d i s c r e p a n c y b e i n g d u e t o t h e fact t h a t t h e t o t a l s r e p r e s e n t t h e s u m s of t h e i n d i v i d u a l fi gures carried o u t t o m o r e d e c i m a l places. TABLE IX.—Movements of cash between different geographic sections of the United States, and to and from certain cities, 1905-1908—Continued. 00 C I T Y O F S T . LOUIS—Continued. SHIPMENTS OF CASH R E P O R T E D . [Amounts expressed in thousands.] 1905. March. February. January. June. May. April. July. August, September. October. November. December. Section. 1 I PI a < ToNew England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States < an flu* 1 1 < 0 0 $3,350 100.0 $1,150 34.3 540 3.8 531 3.6 715 29.0 526 15.5 48 0.8 48 0.8 0 0 4,455 39.5 Total United States 2,453 18.4 < 0 $250 7.5 472 2.8 736 30.5 0 36 0 1,494 I 8.3 flu* Kg i t < 0 $50 261 310 83 0 1.5 0 0 3.2 704 0 1 0 $400 11.9 513 3.4 619 22.1 119 5.6 0 1,651 10.0 1 i 0 $200 6.0 1,558 17.5 682 26.6 129 6.3 0 2,569 19.6 Mjj 1 1 11 flu* flu* < < 1u 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $2,549 30.9 $3,471 43.3 $7,668 100.0 $6,822 88.6 695 27.6 1,319 72.2 1,707 100.0 1,315 71.9 1,110 72.8 1,512 100.0 825 53.5 980 64.0 0 0 0 0 4,354 38.4 6,302 59.0 10,200 100.0 9,117 88.6 11 < 4J ii flu* < 50.9 +3 3o a -< 0 0 0 0 0 0 $4,335 55.0 $2,338 28.0 792 34.5 506 14.0 407 25.1 201 11.2 0 0 5,534 Year. 3,045 24.7 0 $5,400 31,058 9,922 5,498 0 Total United States.. 1 0 0 405 361 22 0 0 1.7 0 0 0 788 0 0 50 12.5 555 3.4 878 49.5 25 0.2 0 0 1,508 7.3 0 150 37.5 324 0.8 762 38.4 27 0.3 0 0 1,263 4.8 0 100 25.0 252 0 593 22.2 70 3.2 43 100.0 1,058 2.7 0 400 100.0 330 0.9 522 15.4 123 6.7 0 0 1,375 6.0 0 100 25.0 981 8.3 805 42.5 319 19.7 0 0 2,205 14.4 Total United States 0 0 0 255 1.4 1,015 28.6 237 21.6 0 0 1,507 0 0 200 14.7 294 1.9 2,019 100.0 424 43.8 0 0 2,937 17.6 0 0 0 2,221 22.4 1,406 100.0 1,072 69.5 0 0 0 0 0 4,105 43.8 1,160 76.5 1,533 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 6,369 69.6 698 32.2 1,185 77.0 0 0 0 0 0 9,043 100.0 777 39.8 788 50.7 0 0 0 0 0 7,366 80.9 598 22.7 612 39.0 0 0 0 0 0 2,565 26.3 669 29.5 162 9.3 0 0 0 800 34,516 9,229 5,938 43 4,699 6,798 61.2 8,252 76.0 10,608 100.0 8,576 79.2 3,396 26.6 50,526 39.8 0 250 18.4 141 0 1,051 31.2 197 16.9 0 0 0 1,360 100.0 886 9.4 1,067 32.3 367 37.1 0 0 0 200 14.7 1,136 12.6 1,274 47.1 122 8.0 0 0 0 0 0 2,173 25.7 1,467 60.8 230 20.8 0 0 2,552 995 897 0 0 30.5 27.2 100.0 0 2,529 1,639 3,680 2,732 3,870 29.2 4,444 36.3 1.6 26.8 15.1 0 6 0 0 0 3,907 47.7 1,486 62.1 726 79.7 0 0 0 0 0 8,043 100.0 980 26.2 583 62.7 3 4.3 0 0 0 3,074 37.1 612 0 393 40.1 5 7.1 0 40 2,624 1,036 761 70 2.9 31.4 30.1 83.9 100.0 0 2,550 25,265 14,796 4,992 78 6,119 56.9 9,609 100.0 4,084 31.8 4,531 37.3 47,681 1908. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States Total United States 0 4,400 100.0 192 0.3 504 0 93 0.2 2 2.4 0 1,400 31.8 208 0.5 1,145 54.0 0 90 0 0 0 4,000 90.9 0 169 947 37.3 128 2.5 0 0 0 2,700 61.4 180 0.1 707 17.1 109 1.2 0 0 0 3,450 78.4 279 1.5 959 38.3 305 14.0 0 0 0 3,000 68.2 609 5.9 1,070 47.7 754 43.3 0 0 0 0 0 1,161 13.3 1,218 60.2 1,622 100.0 0 0 0 0 0 2,558 31.9 1,691 100.0 792 45.8 0 0 0 0 0 6,412 83.4 966 38.9 578 31.9 0 0 0 0 0 7,652 100.0 939 36.6 582 32.1 0 0 0 0 0 3,684 47.0 536 2.7 126 2.4 0 0 0 0 0 2,274 28.1 578 6.2 99 0.6 85 100.0 0 18,950 25,378 11,260 5,278 87 5,191 37.1 2,843 5,244 37.9 3,696 13.5 4,993 34.0 5,433 40.9 4,001 5,041 34.7 7,956 80.8 9,173 100.0 4,346 3,036 3.0 60,953 0 > o o CO CO 0 500 36.8 180 0.5 1,794 84.0 0 55 0 0 12.6 > o 1907. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States O 51,878 1906. New England States Eastern States Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific States > 18.3 23.7 I—I O 3 1905-1908. January. Section. -^ a g ^ K a & B Southern States Middle Western States Western States Pacific S t a t e s Total United States % I 3^ •a o EH jp a a a "3 o EH ToN e w E n g l a n d States Eastern States March. February. t> <} 0 o ^a April. M •a . s .Sfc O 603 0 $7,750 1,383 2,406 400 2 50.0 $2,800 1.8 11.0 5.7 0.6 1,597 4,757 11,941 19.2 9,741 587 0 o cy O 8? H «} fl cy a 35 o jp a *3 >• o c3 -> < EH o o s 3o o • H 03 3 O -< • a June. May. M 2 53 o o a *-* 1 0> fl <> Bc3 a? f l -> < EH o 5 1 0 3 0 $8,104 4,786 4,034 0 15 9 0 28 11 41 19 11,699 19.2 12,939 22.5 $3,100 26.6 1,145 4,239 246 1.0 47.6 17.6 6 1 0 0 0.7 0 834 2,661 459 43 $5,610 2,008 3,167 914 25.0 10.8 10,530 15.9 7,097 4.5 o ^ o o jp a t> ^ o o 23 1 $12,686 62 2 T3 0 65.8 0 5 165 4,734 0 16,924 31.4 22,585 • o o ^•9 3o S a > -< EH 0 o 37 4 $24,356 4,857 69 0 3,314 86 5 0 0 47.8 • a •3 ^ a & 32,527 1 ^ 1 X a 25 § "c3 a) a 1 B03 03 3o o o o o o o «-2 £a I 03 oa •aO «i EH 0 0 0 $40 0.7 28.5 20.0 26.3 $27,700 116,217 45,207 21,708 9,801 2,789 1,223 1.8 155 50.0 208 46.4 14,008 22.9 211,040 97 2 $18,459 43 6 2,538 52 4 1,538 5 1.1 55.0 78.4 97.2 22,540 a a 15.0 26 7 75 2 $31,560 58 3 4,011 60 5 2,935 3 0 38,509 o EH ^ o o -*j a 53 O > • EH Year. X B03 O ^> EH o o December. November. H 53 03 3o EH o o M .J 03 "c3 O $3,500 4 284 3,831 1,324 0 43.2 • X cv o o $4,900 ^ October. September. August. M 72.6 3 8 27.0 23.3 2.4 58.1 11.2 o -*i fi 53 o EH <> EH &3 July. M o U o i—i H CHART XIV. (88) CHART X V . SEASONAL >?— ftveraqc Index Numbers Shipments of VARIATIONS ,/nthc fo NEW ENGLAND RELATIVE DEMAND STATES., roe MONEY tn +++-Rveraqe Index Numbers Shipments 100 EASTERN STATES STATES 100 as Evidenced btj c i of to SOUTHERN ~ — f i v e rage Index Numbers of of the Countru. Shipm ents of Cash to other Sections Shipments to MIDDLE WESTERN STATES. !<?0£-l<?08 five rage Index Numbers D Shipments fo TOTAL UNITED STATES. i SO *i 10 i i so i i i i i i i i i / / / / / i i i / i 1 10- c 0 Montis *--o 3 *** 4 l *l II 'i 10 1/ \ \ II * If s* s/ „«A 7\ IS Js i x*«. / / N \ \ f // i. J: > \ GO * \ SO \* +* \\ 4-0 / \ \ \ \\ \ \ / v\ / \ i 30 / \ i t / / / / / f •f \ k > i 1/ \\ / / * \ \ \\ \\ \ / / f i i ?o 30 \ N / 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 30 i hV + i 1 40 \ // f* / f GO ^ ^ 'S>4< i 1 fi ft i x 10 of * 20 / 10 L~J^js "1c ' > t) 1 =S ^ $ •? ^ f ^ § 4 1 '4 (89) |AM| CHART XVI. 1 1 1 \ ! V 1 1 \\ 1 CO \\ so 1 40 1 ^ 1 10 Ada five Demand for Money \ in \ NEW \ j E/VQL/IND STATES j 1 1 \— ! /1 1 1 T> \ \ 1 Variations in the \ 10 1 Seasonal as Evidenced bu 1 \\ \ t \ Receipts of Cash from of her Sections 1 \ \ 1 1 f 1 \\ \\ 1 1 1 1 \ \ 1 1 \ \ 1 / \ \r / CO 1 —7 ' of the Country, j WO 6-1*03. 1 \ 1 i \ V 1 \* 1 \ \ > 1 \v /. \ * lO /1 / \ \ / i > f \ i / so 4J it \ 1 s- i \ 1 1 1 1 1 11 \ \ \ it 1 40 11 1 V/ So 1 11 \ 1 1 / \\ / / \\ \\ / / \\ / / \\ * / to ; /1 Average Index Numbers of Receipts \ a Woafjis from EASTEKN ! 1 JI < (90) 1 S. 1 . _* 1 IO 8 from I 3 ^ -t~ tor/K UMTED 1 1 . J Average index Numbers of Receipts STATES. 3 * _ STATES. 0 1 « 1 Monl§ CHART XVII. i i i SEASONAL r i > /I / 1 1 I i VARIATIONS in fhe RELATIVE 10 DEMAND rot? // // * \ / / // / 1 // \\ \\ / / \\ MONEY in NEW ENGLAND STATES as Evidenced So bq Shtpm ents of Cash to other Sections of the cCountry. /fOSrifOd 1 Yso 40 / / // 1 Numbers of Shipments to EASTEKN STATES. 5 i i S~ \\ \\ / | i CO \ \ \ \ / 1/ Average index Numbers of C " \ *\ / / \ X k 30 \ I 20 > * \ / M \ \ \ / / 1 / .*\ , — , K * > 1 1 1 \Z / / \ \ N / (0 \\ * * ^__ — 1 _-3 ^ \ A A / H * V \ t X // 11 Go V v/i\ flveraqe tndex nu>mbers ot s. / Shipments to TOTAL Ut N/TED STATE f .7° \\ Shipments io MIDDLE WESTERN STATES. \ So i V <7+ + ++++flveraqc Index W * *i t * * / / 1/ > 4o \ \ \ ^ \ \ f JO \ i 2o \ /o it B io Mai/M O i 1 SO >< X \ \ \ ' i i \ 1 1 4 I" 1 1 I1 X ^ $ 4 4 4 (91) MonM 92 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. I n January the demand for cash in New England appears to be relatively low and there is a strong movement toward the Eastern States (principally toward New York City). The average index number of receipts of cash by the Eastern States from the New England States was 88.4 for January—the largest for any month of the year. I n two years of the four the maximum receipts occurred in January. The amount of January receipts (during the four years) from New England amounted to $16,217,000—likewise the largest for any month, December coming second with $13,879,000. A reference to Chart X V giving shipments of cash by the Eastern States, shows that the shipments to the New England States in January were very low. Chart X V I I , summarizing the shipments of cash reported by the New England States, supports the evidence just given of a January movement of cash to the Eastern States. This chart shows January to be the month of third highest shipments to the Eastern States. Chart X V I , showing receipts of New England States from Eastern States, gives evidence contradictory to that of the other three charts, in t h a t it shows January to be a month of large New England receipts from the Eastern States, the average index number being 72.4, and the receipts being high in three of the four years. Inasmuch as the other three charts cover reported currency movements amounting to $290,567,000 as compared with $56,900,000 covered by the disagreeing chart, we may conclude that the weight of the evidence points to a tendency for cash to move from New England to the Eastern States in January. This movement of cash from New England to New York City in January is probably in part the result of the large purchases of cotton by the manufacturers in Massachusetts and vicinity through the fall and early winter, which at that season normally put New York funds at a premium in Boston and vicinity. Possibly the return flow of cash to the banks after the holiday demand, and the call for remittances to New York for settling holiday purchases, may be factors. I n February the demand for money in New England and the demand in the Eastern States appear to be about balanced, there being comparatively little movement of cash in either direction. March and April are months of relatively large demand for money in New England as compared with the Eastern States, and of consequent heavy shipments of cash to New England. During these months shipments in the opposite direction are comparatively small. The average index number of shipments to New England reported by the Eastern States rose from 12.7 in February to 50.6 in March and to 74.6 in April. During the four months of February the total amount reported by the Eastern States as shipped to New England was $10,584,000, during the four months of March it was $18,927,000, and during the four months of April it was $24,212,000. In all four years March shipments were larger than February shipments, while in two of the years April shipments were larger than March shipments, and in two they were smaller. Receipts of cash from the Eastern States reported by New England States tell the same story of a strong movement of cash toward New England in March and April. The movement of cash in the opposite direction during these two months is comparatively small. As to the causes of this movement of cash toward New England Mr. Francis B . Sears, vice-president of the National Shawmut Bank, of Boston, writes: " * * * immediately preceding the dates of October 1 and April 1 I should say t h a t a large quantity of money would be due to the shoe manufacturers in this vicinity from western and southern jobbers and t h a t the volume would be sufficient to have a marked effect upon the exchanges between New York and this city, as New York is the central banking city for the country and settlements are finally made through the banks there * * *. Immediately preceding April 1 there is also a large demand from towns and cities near to New York and Boston for small currency. I never have been able to inform myself nor to get from any other person a satisfactory explanation of this movement. I t may have something to do with the preparations of the farmers for their operations and the consequent purchases of implements, seeds, etc. The movement does not last long and the currency comes back quickly." In April and October dry-goods jobbers in New England also receive their money from other parts of the country through New York City. May, June, and July appear to be moderately inactive months, so far as currency movements between New England and the Eastern States are concerned, with some flow of cash in both directions, but no great preponderance in one direction over the other. In June the movement appears to be somewhat stronger in the direction of New England, total reported June shipments by the Eastern States to New England having been $15,693,000, represented by an average index number of 39.6, while total reported receipts from New England were $6,819,000, represented by an average index number of 26.9. Eastern States reported considerable shipments to New England, in June, in everyone of the four years. This movement may be connected with July 1 disbursements. New England holds a great many securities upon which interest and dividends are payable in New York on January 1 and July 1. A number of millions of dollars in coupons payable in New York are at these times deposited in the banks of Boston and other New England cities, creating much New York exchange and a tendency for money to flow from New York to New England. Often this movement is accentuated by the maturity of the bonds themselves. Of course at these dates there are also numerous settlements to be made in the opposite direction. The fact that payments for wool by the New England mills are SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. largest about June is a factor tending to turn the balance of payments against New England. The fact t h a t June represents the beginning of the vacation season is cited by a prominent Providence banker as one reason for the flow of cash toward New England in that month. Another Providence banker states that the accounts due the jewelry manufacturing establishments for which Providence is noted are largely settled about July 1 and January 1. August, September, and October the charts show to be months in which the movement of cash between the Eastern States and New England is rather strongly in the direction of the latter. The average index number of shipments by the Eastern States to New England was 57.5 for August, 38.6 for September, and 55.9 for October. Of the $187,000,000 reported by Eastern States as shipped to New England during the four years, $18,694,000 was shipped in August, $15,565,000 in September, and $23,088,000 in October. Chart X V I showing receipts of cash by New England from the Eastern States shows an upward movement in August, September, and October, culminating in October. The movement of cash from New England to the Eastern States during these months was small. This movement of cash toward New England is caused largely by the remittances (through New York) of funds by jobbers in the Eastern States and other sections of the country in settlement of accounts for the purchase of shoes, dry goods, and other articles of New England manufacture. The strong movement of cash toward New England in August, a well-known New England banker informs me, is largely due to the preparation on the part of bankers in t h a t section for an anticipated difficulty in getting funds during the autumn when the New York banks are subject to such large calls from the West and South. I t is said that some New England banks carry much larger reserves in the early autumn than they otherwise would if they felt t h a t they could readily get funds from New York in case of need. For November and December the evidence points strongly to a tendency for money to flow from New England to the Eastern States. Of total reported receipts by the Eastern States from New England, amounting to $92,642,000 for the four years, $8,238,000 were received in November and $13,879,000 in December. The average index number for such receipts rose from 11.7 in October to 38.8 in November and to 75.8 in December. November receipts were larger than October in three of the four years, and December receipts were larger than November in all four years. The average index number of shipments to the Eastern States reported by the New England States, rose from 31.7 in October to 48.2 in November and to 56.4 in December. Of $10,825,000 reported by New England as shipped to the Eastern States during the four years, $1,081,000 were shipped in November and $974,000 in December. For November and December reported receipts of cash by the New England States from the Eastern States and 93 reported shipments of cash by the Eastern States to New England States were comparatively low. The movement of cash from New England to New York City in November and December is due principally to the large purchases of cotton by the New England manufacturers during these months. The drafts upon the mills for cotton come mainly through New York, and commonly necessitate shipments of currency from New England to that city. CURRENCY SHIPMENTS BETWEEN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE STATES. (Tables IX and 9.) The reports received show comparatively little cash shipped between New England and the Middle Western States. During the four years Middle Western States reported $9,641,000 received from New England, and New England reported $11,547,000 shipped to the Middle Western States; on the other hand, Middle Western States reported $8,000 shipped to New England, and New England reported $655,000 received from the Middle Western States. Movements of cash from the Middle Western States directly to New England are too small to claim attention, the eastern flow to New England being apparently to New York City and thence to New England. Limiting ourselves, then, to the westward movement, we may observe the following seasonal tendencies: There is no evidence of any considerable movement of cash from New England to the Middle Western States until the beginnings of the crop-moving demand for money in late summer and fall. New England States report large shipments to the Middle West in only two months in the year—i. e., September and October. Of total shipments to the Middle West reported by New England for the four years amounting to $11,547,000 September shipments amounted to $1,785,000 and October shipments to $2,250,000, the corresponding average index numbers being respectively 73.7 and 99.1. August shipments amounted to but $691,000, with an average index number of 13.1. Turning to the receipts from New England reported by the Middle Western States we find that of total receipts for the four years amounting to $9,641,000, August claimed $1,775,000, with an average index number of 50.8, September claimed $1,446,000 with an average index number of 31.7, and October $2,995,000 with an average index number of 73.4. The reports of the New England States and of the Middle Western States accordingly agree in making October the month of greatest westward movement, and in showing September to be a month of comparatively large westward movement; they disagree with regard t o the movement in August; New England reports showing it to be small, and Middle Western States reports showing it to be second only to October. Considering the August figures for the individual years we find the index numbers of receipts from New England by the Middle 94 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. Western States to have been for the four years respectively 75, 86.5, 41.7, and 0; and those for shipments reported by New England to have been respectively 12.1, 29.7, 10.5, and 0; thus the figures for the individual years show the same contradictory evidence as was given by the averages. Crop-moving demands are of course the primary cause for this westward movement of cash in September and October. CURRENCY SHIPMENTS BETWEEN NEW ENGLAND STATES AND SOUTHERN STATES. cotton, most of these payments being made, as we have seen (p. 93), through New York City. CURRENCY SHIPMENTS BETWEEN NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE WESTERN STATES. (Tables IX and 9.) Shipments reported between these sections are negligible, having amounted to but $25,000 shipped by New England in October, 1908, and $20,000 in December, 1908. CURRENCY SHIPMENTS BETWEEN NEW ENGLAND STATES AND PACIFIC STATES. (Tables IX and 9.) Reported shipments of cash between these two sections are negligible. No movements of cash were reported from the Southern States to the New England States. New England reported having shipped to the Southern States during the entire four years only $520,000, the shipments coming in the following months in the order of amounts: September, December, November, and October. The only receipts from New England during the four years reported by the Southern States were $700,000 in September, 1907. November and December are the months in which the New England cotton mills are called upon to make payments for their purchases of There were no shipments worth mentioning reported between these sections. SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE VALUE OF MONEY IN THE MIDDLE WESTERN STATES. CHICAGO AND THE EASTERN STATES. (Charts XVIII, XIX, XX, XXXIV, and XXXV, and Tables IX, X, XII, 9, 11, and 12.) Domestic exchange rates in Chicago upon New York City and currency shipments between Chicago and the Eastern States will first be considered. TABLE X.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans, and San Francisco, as evidenced by exchange rates on New York City.—Averagefigures,1899-1908. 1899—1908. Chicago. Month and week. Average rate. Relative deRate. mand for money. Average index number. Average index number. Average index number. Average rate. San Francisco.a New Orleans. St. Louis. Relative deRate. mand for money. Average rate. and Rela- Month week. tive deRate. mand for money. Jan.—1 2 3 4 Feb.—5 6 7 8 Mar.—9 10 11 12 Apr.-13 14 15 16 2.5 cents premium. 5 cents premium.. 5 cents premium.. 10 cents premium.. 2 cents premium... 6 cents discount... 9 cents discount... 20 cents discount.. 29.5 cents discount. 23 cents discount.. 13cents discount.. 14.5 cents discount. 5 cents discount... 14 cents discount.. 7.5 cents discount.. 4 cents premium... 64.7 67.4 67.7 72.1 63.0 54.8 50.7 38.8 28.1 35.0 45.9 43.5 53.9 44.5 52.2 66.3 35.3 32.6 32.3 27.9 37.0 45.2 49.3 61.2 71.9 65.0 54.1 56.5 46.1 55.5 47.8 33.7 7 cents premium.. 3 cents discount... 7.8 cents premium. 1.5 cents premium. 8 cents discount... 13 cents discount.. 7 cents discount... 4.5 cents premium. 5.5 cents discount.. .05 cent discount... 2 cents premium... 3.5 cents premium. 2 cents premium.. 5 cents discount... 8 cents discount... 4 cents premium.. 61.8 63.4 68.5 63.0 58.4 54.7 57.2 64.2 56.1 61.8 63.1 63.0 59.6 55.4 53.5 63.5 38.2 36.6 31.5 37.0 41.6 45.3 42.8 35.8 43.9 38.2 36.9 37.0 40.4 44.6 46.5 36.5 35.5 cents discount. 15.5 cents discount. 0.5 cents discount.. 8 cents discount... 19 cents discount.. 26.5 cents discount. 24 cents discount.. 26 cents discount.. 13 cents discount.. 18.5 cents discount. 15.5 cents discount. 17 cents discount.. 22.5 cents discount. 18.5 cents discount. 18 cents discount.. 20cents discount.. 53.5 66.3 77.6 74.5 69.3 64.9 64.0 59.4 65.3 66.0 68.9 67.6 61.1 60.2 61.6 62.0 17 9 cents discount... 48.4 51.6 1.5 cents discount.. 60.6 39.4 21.5 cents discount. 61.0 May—18 3.5 cents discount.. 55.9 44.1 4.5 cents discount.. 59.1 40.9 45 cents discount.. 44.7 19 2.5 cents premium. 62.. 38.0 7.5 cents premium. 66.3 33.7 46cents discount.. 44.2 20 16 cents premium.. 76.7 23.3 20.5 cents premium 75.5 24.5 45 cents discount.. 47.5 21 16 cents premium.. 77.3 22.7 35 cents premium.. 84.8 15.2 37.5 cents discount. 52.3 Average index number. Average rate. 30 cents discount.. 46.5 Jan.—1 2 20 cents premium.. 33.7 3 83.1 cents premium 22.4 25.5 4 85 cents premium.. 86.9 cents premium 30.7 Feb.—5 6 91.9 cents premium 35.1 $1.05 premium 7 36.0 8 . , . . , 96.3 cents premium 40.6 63.1 cents premium 34.7 1 0 . . . . 50 cents premium.. 34.0 1 1 . . . . 33.1 cents premium 31.1 12.... 43.1 cents premium 32.4 38.9 Apr.—13.... 56.3 cents premium 1 4 . . . . 48.8 cents premium 39.8 1 5 . . . . 44.4 cents premium 38.4 1 6 . . . . 49.3 cents pre38.0 mium. & 39.0 May—17.... 10.7 cents premium. & 1 8 . . . . 15.7 cents pre55.3 mium. 6 19 43.6 cents pre55.8 mium^ 2 0 . . . . 36.4 cents pre52.5 mium^ 12.9 cents pre47.7 June—21 mium. 6 Rate. Relative demand for money. 45.8 63.6 86.6 88.9 89.0 90.5 95.3 94.0 79.7 73.1 68.8 73.2 78.2 75.9 73.7 6 75.2 54.2 36.4 13.4 11.1 11.0 9.5 4.7 6.0 20.3 26.9 31.2 26.8 21.8 24.1 26.3 6 24.8 6 55.8 6 44.2 6 59.2 640.8 6 71.7 6 28.3 6 68.5 6 31.5 6 56.1 643.9 a San Francisco figures cover only eight years, 1901-1908. & No quotation given for this week in 1906. This average therefore covers only seven years. Figures for the individual years will be found in Table 12 of the Appendix, (pp. 364-373.) SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 95 TABLE X.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans, and San Francisco, as evidenced by exchange rates on New York City.—Averagefigures,1899-1908—Continued. 1899—1908—Continued. Chicago. St. L o u i s . Average index number. New Orleans. Average index number. San Francisco. Average index number. Average index number. Month and week. Average r a t e . Rate. Relat i v e demand for money. Average rate. Rate. Rela. t i v e demand for money. Average r a t e . Rate. Month and week. Relat i v e demand for money. June—22 10 c e n t s p r e m i u m . . 24 c e n t s p r e m i u m . . 35.4 7 cents p r e m i u m . . . 77.9 64.1 22.1 35.9 20 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 8.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 64.1 5 cents p r e m i u m . . . 71.1 64.6 28.9 23 73.8 35.9 26.2 June—22 23.... 24 4 cents p r e m i u m . . 63.6 36.4 8 cents p r e m i u m . . . 64.4 35.6 12.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 72.5 27.5 24.... 25 10.5 c e n t s p r e m i u m 72.8 27.2 12 c e n t s p r e m i u m . . 67.8 32.2 33 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 57.3 42.7 11.5 c e n t s p r e m i u m 33 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . July—26 2.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 59.3 16.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 73.6 40.3 26.4 27. , 59.7 18 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 46.8 40.7 53.2 56.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 58.7 37.9 41.3 62.1 28 7.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 50.6 49.4 21.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 47.1 52.9 50.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 41.8 58.2 29 8 cents d i s c o u n t . . . 10.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 11 cents d i s c o u n t . . 52.6 47.4 11 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 50.0 50.0 9.8 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 53.5 51.5 46.5 48.5 42 cents d i s c o u n t . . 26 cents d i s c o u n t . . 51.1 42.2 48.7 41.8 51.3 58.2 42.6 43.4 57.4 35 cents d i s c o u n t . . 23.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 40.1 59.9 42 cents d i s c o u n t . . 46.9 46.9 53.1 77.3 81.2 38.1 42.0 28.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 42 cents d i s c o u n t . . 22.7 18.8 56.6 61.9 58.0 48.9 57.8 51.0 57.5 65.3 76.2 59.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 65.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 38.2 29.9 61.8 70.1 79.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 82 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 23.3 22.2 76.7 77.8 30 Aug.—31 32 17.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 19 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 33 34 24.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 31.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 27 cents d i s c o u n t . . 32 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 49.0 42.5 Rate. Relative demand for money. Average rate. 10 c e n t s p r e m i u m ^ . 37.1 c e n t s miums pre- a 56.7 a 68.1 o43.3 o31.9 48.6 c e n t s miums pre- a 75.6 a 24.4 pre6 68.5 J u l y — 2 5 . . . . 27.1 c e n t s mium^ 2 6 . . . . 25 cents p r e m i u m &. 6 66.9 p r e - 6 70.8 2 7 . . . . 41.4 c e n t s miums & 31.5 37.1 c e n t s m i u m . t> pre- 633.1 6 29.2 6 68.6 6 31.4 42.5 cents p r e m i u m Aug.—29 3 0 . . . . 28.8 c e n t s p r e m i u m 3 1 . . . . 29.4 cents p r e m i u m 67.4 63.1 32.6 36.9 62.9 12.5 c e n t s p r e m i u m S e p t . — 3 3 . . . . 10.6 c e n t s p r e m i u m 3 4 . . . . 6.9 cents p r e m i u m . 3 5 . . . . 3.8 cents p r e m i u m . 57.0 54.8 51.3 37.1 43.0 45.2 28.... 32.... Sept.—35 34.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 37.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 36 36.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 19.1 80.9 48 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 34.7 23.8 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 25 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 34.7 65.3 40.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 32.8 67.2 26 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 33 cents d i s c o u n t . . 32 cents d i s c o u n t . . 29.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 27.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 33.5 26.1 27.2 39 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 55.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 54 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 33.1 66.9 22.9 22.5 46.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 45 cents d i s c o u n t . . 27.3 77.7 87.9 83.0 28.3 77.1 | 81 cents d i s c o u n t . . 77.5 95.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 72.7 85.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 71.7 85.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 22.3 12.1 17.0 30.8 66.5 73.9 72.8 71.0 69.2 17.0 83.0 43 31 cents d i s c o u n t . . 24.2 75.8 72.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 17.5 82.5 82 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 23.2 76.8 43.... 34.3 cents counts dis- c27.6 c72.4 Nov.—44 29 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 27.6 72.4 60.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 15.7 84.3 $1,005 d i s c o u n t 10.0 90.0 4 4 . . . . 46.4 c e n t s counts dis- c22.1 c77.9 45 46 20 cents d i s c o u n t . . 4.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 36.9 53.4 63.1 46.6 26.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 11.3 c e n t s p r e m i u m 23.5 76.5 D e c — 4 5 . . . . $1.05discount d... dis4 6 . . . . 76.3 c e n t s count,d d76.5 10.7 92.7 89.3 d23.5 57.7 $1.09 d i s c o u n t $1.03 d i s c o u n t 7.3 42.3 d29.3 d70.7 47 13 cents p r e m i u m . . 71.2 28.8 53.3 c e n t s p r e m i u m 65.1 34.9 91.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 14.4 85.6 47.... <*67.4 D e c — 48 49 50 51 52 2.5 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 11.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 5 cents p r e m i u m . . 3.5 cents p r e m i u m . . 3.5 cents p r e m i u m . 53.2 47.3 46.8 52.7 35.3 34.9 34.9 7.3 cents p r e m i u m . 2 cents d i s c o u n t . . . 32 c e n t s p r e m i u m . 11.8 c e n t s p r e m i u m 56.7 46.9 58.0 50.1 47.4 43.3 53.1 42.0 49.9 52.6 81.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 82.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 74cents d i s c o u n t . . 86.5 cents d i s c o u n t . 66 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . . 19.7 18.5 24.1 80.3 81.5 48.... 73.8 c e n t s dis- d 3 2 . 6 count,d 70 cents d i s c o u n t d J <*32.8 . 29.0 64.7 65.1 65.1 2 cents d i s c o u n t . . . 16.1 34.1 53.1 51.7 51.1 3 6 . . . . 3.8 cents p r e m i u m . 53.0 O c t . — 3 7 . . . . 10 cents p r e m i u m . . 51.9 3 8 . . . . 3.8 c e n t s d i s c o u n t . 3 9 . . . . 1.9 c e n t s p r e m i u m . 55.7 4 0 . . . . $1,006 d i s c o u n t d . . d 4 6 . 3 N o v . — 4 1 . . . . 85 cents d i s c o u n t d. d 4 8 . 6 dis4 2 . . . . 10.7 c e n t s c41.0 counts 75.9 83.9 65.9 i a No quotation given for this week in 1906. ) This average therefore covers only seven years. Figures 6 No quotation given for this week in 1901. \ for the individual years will be found in Table 12 of the c No quotation given for this week in 1907. j Appendix. Cf. pp. 364-373. d These averages include abnormally high rates of panic period of the fall of 1907. The averages for these weeks, if the year 1907 were eliminated, would be as follows: Average i n d e x number. Month and week. Average e x c h a n g e rate. Rate. Oct.—40 Nov.—41 42 43 44 Dec—45 46 47 48 13.6 c e n t s 10.0 c e n t s 10.7 c e n t s 34.3 c e n t s 46.4 c e n t s 48.6cents 37.1 c e n t s 27.1 c e n t s 22.9 c e n t s premium premium discount. discount. discount. discount. discount. discount. discount. 52.9 52.3 41.0 27.6 22.1 20.4 25.2 29.5 29.8 Relative demand for money. 47.1 47.7 59.0 72.4 77.9 79.6 74.8 70.5 70.2 48.7 48.3 48.9 47.0 48.1 44.3 d53.7 d51.4 c59.0 d67.2 96 ARY COMMISSION. NATIONAL CHART XVIII. I t should always be borne in mind that the fact that New York City is the country's dominating financial market results in making New York funds acceptable everywhere as a means of payment, and in making a ready market for New York exchange throughout the country for a large part of the year. Throughout January money in Chicago relative to that in New York City is cheap. Exchange rates on New York are high and there is a considerable movement of cash from Chicago to the Eastern States—particularly to New York City. The average rate of exchange for each of the first four weeks (1899-1908) varied from 2.5 cents premium in the first week to 10 cents premium in the fourth week, the average index number rising at the same time from 64.7 to 72.1. Of the forty weekly rates appearing during the first four weeks of the ten years twenty-four were not less than 10 cents premium; of the forty index numbers thirty-two were above 50, of which twenty were not less than 75. Comparatively high exchange rates were accordingly fairly regular in their occurrence during this period. Reported currency shipments between Chicago and the Eastern States substantiate the evidence of domestic exchange rates. The average index number for January shipments by Chicago to the Eastern States was 47, the amount being $8,088,000 out of a total for the four-year period of $65,884,000. The four January index numbers were 100, 30.8, 9.4, and 47.8. January receipts by Chicago from the Eastern States were very low, the average index number being 7.6, and the January receipts being $1,751,000 out of a total for all months of $90,327,000. Just prior to January 1 there is normally a large demand in Chicago for New York exchange with which to meet dividend and interest payments due in New York, and the high rates thus created continue somewhat into the new year. a The crop-moving and holiday demand, however, being over, money becomes relatively cheap in Chicago and flows to New York City, where it can at least earn the 2 per cent paid by banks on bankers' balances, and where it is absorbed somewhat in speculative activity and in the higher security prices, which normally rule the latter part of January and the fore p a r t of February. 6 From the last of January to the forepart of March the demand for money in Chicago relative to t h a t in New York rapidly rises. Exchange rates on New York fall to a low point, and shipments of cash to the Eastern States are very small. a A considerable number of letters of inquiry concerning causes of seasonal variations in the Chicago money market were sent to Chicago bankers. Replies received from Chicago inquiries were much more meager than those received from the other cities studied. For information concerning Chicago money markets I am much indebted to Mr. Fred I. Kent, vice-president of the Banked Trust Company, of New York City, and to Prof. M. S. Wildman of Northwestern University. bCf. Chart LXXIX. CHART XIX. ; r 1 1 SEASONAL J—"'""I' VARIATIONS ) in /he ,?•*«.«.«.* Average Index Numbers Receipts from B Receipts from 1 s \ c w MIDDLE Receipts from DEMAND STATES CITY OF WESTERN CHICAGO Rece//. its too of Cash from other Sections of fhs tCountry STATES. / WS-1103 j 90 ~*7~D Average Index \ Receipi s numbers of from fo TflL UN/TEL? // /// STATES. * t * i t 80 \ \ \ \ \ 10 / * \ + / \ / * * * \ / \ ^ 60 SO t \ 1 1 40 i i i • \ \f V \ \y A // \ / // \ \ \ // \\ \\ / \ / \ / \ / 1 ' S i t \ ~7 / / / S\ / \\ \ \ A ********* V \ + \ \ * * i + * 1 \\ + \ * \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \\ \\ \ 1 y / ^-' * 40 ... m ti"\ in c r V 30 \ 1 1 \ \ 20 % * i k k k *** k k so ! if*\ \ \ \\ V V \ i 1 /1 / / \ * \ \ \ * \ \\ i 1 1 1 to 4 X X 0 ^ 16065°—11- / CO 0 i k \ , \ \ \ * V \ 0 / / 10 1 + \ *t \\ \ \ \ \ ++ + + t f + t * i *k fo \ \ \ \ li\ / k it * + \ /h \ 1/ 20 * * / 1 I \ ' 1 1 i i i i i i ii I i i i \ \ /' / / \\ /1 / /// >v i + + * So i ft X 30 *** 1/ it/ \ \ / C I MONEY ; os Evidenced bij STATES of WESTERN FOR /n of Average index Numbers \ RELATIVE EASTERN Average Index Numbers \/oa ' of r5 .*> A? £ M > <«£ (97) flonthi CHART XX. 1 tl 1 • I • 1 ' 1 1 1- 1 Average index Numbers of Shipment fo fAsrE/etv STATES? SEASONAL RELATIVE g++++++flyerageindex Numbers of Shipments fo SOUTHERN STATES DEMAND in CITY OF _C*-*—*— Average Index Numbers of 1 VARIATIONS in the FOR MONEY CHICAGO as Evidenced by Shipments fo MIDDLE WESTERN STATES: Shipmt °nfsofCash fo other Sections of the Co untru D— —Average Index Numbers of too — H05-WS. 100 1 Shipments fo WESTERN STATES., E ' Average Index Numbers of Shipments fo TOTAL UNITED STATES / 1° *0 •I ' \ \So / 1 1 Co / 1 so ! 1 i i i 1 \ i i \ \ t ) i i i i // / / i i > s. ' // \ \ \ 70 \ i it Xf tn / / ^ £ 3 n 1 I I (98) \ \ \ \ \ *"». I \ \ \ \ \\ II I 1 1 i I 1i ••• 1 r 1- / I t i t so »\ 1 \ // * i * i 4 \ 1A \ / t / \ ! \ TJ \\ \\ \\ \\ * CO \ t * i 40 M \ 'i ''~~~~~ \ so 1 —^.^ to \ \\U W Xs \ \ ff / \ >v. x 10 t 1 f 4 * \ \\ 1 HI * /A* II ?\ I \ \ \ \ 1 SO /o \ \ \ \ \\ \ \ \ 1 \ Wcnfk / / / / R 40 \ / >< 1, t 1 / ^umbers 70 ' /1** / / / so + \ * i *v \\ / ^? / \ \ \ \ 1 1 \ \ / S-*. C £ / / / / 10 5 3 \ « S 45 •§ o Monf/,\ SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. For the ten-year period the average rate of exchange fell from 10 cents premium in the fourth week to 29.5 cents discount in the ninth week, the average index number of rates falling at the same time from 72.1 to 28.1. I n every year of the period the rate was lower in the ninth week than in the fourth. The average index number of shipments of cash from Chicago to the Eastern States, which was 47 in January, with total January shipments for the four years amounting to $8,088,000, declined to 12.6 in February, with total February shipments amounting to $1,934,000. I n every year February shipments were much smaller than January shipments. There is, however, no evidence of a movement of cash from the East to Chicago in February, although there is something of a westward movement in March. During this period the relative demand for money in Chicago is increased by the anticipated opening of navigation on the Great Lakes, for the opening of navigation gives rise to a large amount of New York exchange received in payment of grain bills. There is also a demand on the part of western bankers for currency to meet the spring needs of the western farmers. The first of March in many sections of the Middle West is t h e commonest time for making settlements of interest and principal on farm mortgages.^ I t is also a common date for paying farm rents. This spring advance in the value of money in Chicago as compared with New York reaches its maximum early in March. The demand then falls off rapidly and with only temporary interruptions (the most noteworthy being about the 1st of May) until it reaches the low level of the early summer, the latter part of May. I t continues at a low level until early in July when the cropmoving advance begins. The average domestic exchange rate rose from 29.5 cents discount in the ninth week to 16 cents premium in the twenty-first week, the average index number of rates rising at the same time from 28.1 to 77.3. I n nine of the ten years the rate for the twenty-first week was higher than that for the ninth, and in eight of these years the index number for the twenty-first week was more than twice as large as that for the ninth. The average rate then fell to 4 cents premium in the twentyfourth week, the average index number for that week being 63.6; and then rose to 11.5 cents premium in the twenty-sixth week, with an average index number of 73.6. These two latter movements, however, were minor ones and not regular in their occurrence, the former taking place in six and the latter in five of the ten years. The testimony of currency shipments substantiates t h a t of exchange rates, to the effect that there is a decline in the demand for money in Chicago relative to New York from early in March to late in May, and that the demand is comparatively small from then until the fore «Cf. p p . 163-165. 99 part of July. Chicago reported relatively small receipts of cash from the Eastern States during these months. On the other hand Chicago's shipments to the Eastern States were high in April, May, and June, the amounts shipped during the four years, with corresponding average index numbers, being as follows: Amount. $1,934,000 6,287,000 10,936,000 12,212,000 12,628,000 Average* index number. 12.6 31.6 47.6 76.2 67.1 June was the month of highest shipments and May that of second highest shipments in the year. I n every year April shipments were larger than February shipments; in two years June shipments were larger t h a n April shipments, in one year they were practically the same, and in one year June shipments were the smaller. Money having served its purpose, in meeting the spring needs of agriculturists, flows into the reserves of the Chicago banks (Chart VII), and Chicago bankers not having a great demand for it at this time move a portion of it to New York for the purpose of obtaining the 2 per cent which New York banks pay upon bankers' balances. United States subtreasury transfers of cash from New York City to Chicago are unimportant during the first seven months of the year. a About the 1st of July the relative demand for money in Chicago and vicinity begins to increase, advancing rapidly, with minor interruptions, until early in September, and then maintaining a high level until the fore part of November. During this period exchange rates rule low and money moves in large quantities from t h e Eastern States to Chicago. The average exchange rate fell abruptly from 11.5 cents premium in the twentysixth week, with an average index number of 73.6, t o 16.5 cents discount in the twenty-seventh week, with an average index number of 40.3, a decline taking place in every one of the ten years. After a minor reaction t o the twenty-ninth week, which took place in seven years, there was a continuous decline until the thirty-fifth week (about the 1st of September), when the lowest point of the year was reached. The average rate fell from 11.5 cents premium in the twenty-sixth week to 37.5 cents discount in the thirty-fifth, the average index number falling from 73.6 to 18.8, a very substantial decline taking place in every year. Five index numbers in the twenty-sixth week were 20 cents premium or above, eight in the thirty-fifth week were 30 cents discount or below. Exchange then continued at a low level until about the forty-fourth week (fore part of November), the average rate for this week being 29 cents discount, oCf. Chart X X X V , and p p . 131-132. 100 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. and the average index number of rates being 27.6. Seven of the ten rates for the forty-fourth week were below 20 cents discount and six of the index numbers were below 40. Figures for currency shipments strongly substantiate the evidence of domestic exchange rates. Keported receipts of cash by Chicago banks from eastern banks rose from $2,500,000 in June to $2,704,000 in July, and were $17,910,000 in August, $11,789,000 in September, and $21,843,000 in October; the average index numbers for these five months,respectively, were 8.2, 9.0,62.7,55.5, and 85.7. August receipts were larger than July receipts in all four years, and October receipts were larger than August receipts in three years. Shipments by Chicago to the Eastern States were very low during all these months, the average index number falling from 67.1 in June to 0.4 in September, and then rising to 22.3 in November. Transfers of cash from New York City to Chicago by the United States subtreasury at New York are normally large during the months of August, September, October, and November, reaching their maximum in October. They are small in December.® The primary cause for this increasing and large demand for money in Chicago is of course the anticipated and actual crop-moving demand, there being no sufficiently strong eastern demand for money at the time to hold it back. For the twenty-seventh week (about July 1) the striking fall in exchange may be due in part to the efforts of western banks to maintain 6 their reserves (or strengthen them) in preparation for their half-yearly statements which are generally published. The dividend and interest disbursements of July 1 do not usually affect the rate for New York exchange so much as those for January 1, because in July western bankers' New York balances are usually large, so t h a t it is unnecessary for them to purchase exchange with which to take care of these disbursements. I t has been found (pp. 30, 34, and 35) that during the last six to eight weeks of the year, after the crop-moving demand has to a large extent subsided, the relative demand for moneyed capital in both New York City and Chicago is maintained until the time of January settlements at nearly the high level of the crop-moving period. A study of domestic exchange rates and of currency shipments shows t h a t the relative demand for money is stronger during this period in New York City than in Chicago, that exchange rates in Chicago on New York rise, and that cash moves eastward. The average exchange rate rose from 29 cents discount in the forty-fourth week, with an average index number of 27.6, to 13 cents premium in the forty-seventh week, with an average index number of 71.2; it then declined to 11.5 cents discount in the forty-ninth week, with an aver«Cf. Chart XXXV and pp. 131-132. & Chart VII shows no evidence of increasing reserves at this time, but rather the opposite. age index number of 47.3, from which it advanced to 3.5 cents premium in the fifty-second week, with an average index number of 65.1. The rate for the forty-seventh week was higher than t h a t for the forty-fourth in every one of the ten years, t h a t for the forty-ninth week was lower than t h a t for the forty-seventh in eight years and the same as the forty-seventh in the other two years, while t h a t for the fifty-second week was higher than t h a t for the forty-ninth in six years, and the same as t h a t for the forty-ninth in two years. The general upward tendency in rates at this time, as well as the two lesser movements noted, appear, therefore, to be fairly regular in their occurrence. Currency shipments substantiate the evidence of domestic exchange rates, pointing to a cheapening of money in Chicago relative to New York during the last six to eight weeks of the year. Reported receipts of cash by Chicago from the Eastern States fell off in November and December from their maximum figure for the year in October. On the other hand, shipments to the Eastern States reported by Chicago rose from $2,134,000 for October, with an average index number of 14.4, to $3,213,000 for November, with an average index number of 22.3; then fell to $3,021,000 for December, with an average index number of 19.5. Money becomes relatively cheap in Chicago and vicinity during these last six to eight weeks of the year, principally because of the return flow of currency previously shipped to the country districts for crop-moving purposes. There is also considerable demand at this time for New York exchange to meet payments in certain lines of goods, such as hardware and dry goods, t h a t are due New York and New England houses by western establishments, and to make purchases for the holiday trade. The decline in exchange rate from the forty-seventh to the forty-ninth week may perhaps be attributed to the fact t h a t by this time foreign exchange made by cotton and grain shipments to Europe has been sold in New York in considerable quantities. The advance from the forty-ninth to the fiftieth week and the comparatively high exchange rates until the end of the year are largely due to preparations for the January disbursements, which western concerns are called upon to make in New York City. ST. LOUIS A N D THE E A S T E R N STATES. (Charts XXI, XXII, and XXIII, and Tables IX, X, XII, and 9, 11, and 12.) The other city studied as representative of the Middle Western States is St. Louis. a a For information concerning the St. Louis money market the writer is indebted to A. G. Edwards & Sons, of St. Louis; Whitaker & Co., of St. Louis; Mr. C. H. Hutig, president of the Third National Bank of St. Louis; Mr. J. A. Lewis, cashier of the National Bank of Commerce of St. Louis; Mr. J. H. Brookmire, of the firm of Simon, Brookmire & Clifford, of St. Louis; and Mr. Fred I. Kent, vice-president of the Bankers' Trust Company, of New York City. MONEY AND CAPITAL. SEASONAL DEMAND 101 XXI. ARokA Seasonal Variations In the.- Relative Demand for -Money in Sf:Loy/s\ _ --£y.chanqe £b/es —Index Numbers of Exchange fofes — Index. Numbers of Relative Demand for Money as Evidenced be/ Exchange .Fates in New YorA City, /S??-/f08 Ws&kL \lfonfh£Janaorif \Februorct\ March \ Apr?/ \ Mloy ) Vwt [ Referring to the tables and charts, we observe the following general seasonal movements in the relative demand for money in St. Louis (as compared with New York City), which are fairly regular in their occurrence. From the beginning of the year until the fore part of May the demand appears to be moderate, exchange rates rule near par, and there is a moderate tendency for cash to move from St. Louis to the Eastern States, with almost no tendency to move in the opposite direction. Between the first and the eighteenth week of the year average exchange rates for the individual weeks varied between 7.8 cents premium (third week) and 13 cents discount (sixth week), while average index numbers of rates varied between 53.5 (fifteenth week) and 68.5 (third week). Of the 180 weekly rates during these eighteen weeks (for the ten years 1899-1908), 106 were between 20 cents premium and 20 cents discount (inclusive), 34 were above 20 cents premium, and 40 were below 20 cents discount. Of total shipments by St. Louis to the Eastern States during the four years amounting to $27,700,000, there was shipped during the four months, January to April, inclusive, $18,550,000, the average index number of shipments during these four months being, respectively, 50, 23.3, 43.2, and 26.6. I t cannot be said, however, t h a t eastward shipments at this time are of regular occurrence, inasmuch as they amounted to little in two years (1906 Ju/if. \./Jvgmf \Stspf-em 6ei\ Oc/o ber \-&\ Wovetnbgr \(?ecember \<Jon, and 1907) of the four. Receipts by St. Louis from the Eastern States during these four months of the year were negligible. The first eighteen weeks of the year, St. Louis bankers say, are a period of comparative inactivity in the local money market. Concerning this period, a prominent St. Louis banker writes: " F o r the first eighteen weeks in the year * * * there is comparatively no New York exchange making and also a nominal demand for it, and likewise an easy, quiet money market." The president of another bank writes: " I would say that New York exchange remains comparatively steady for the first eighteen weeks of the year, because of the limited volume of eastern exchange created by reason of the light movement of agricultural products to the eastern markets— and further by the fact that the demand for actual currency in this market is small during that period, and the rates of exchange on New York are held more uniform by shipments of currency to the East * * *." The second noticeable movement in the St. Louis money market is the sharp decline in the relative demand for money from the fore part of May to about the 1st of June. Exchange on New York rises rapidly at this time, and May is the month of heaviest shipments of cash to the East. The average rate of exchange on New York rose from 4.5 cents discount in the eighteenth week to 35 cents premium in the twenty-first week, the average index CHART XXII. SEASONAL •+• Average Index Numbers of] Receipts from RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY E^STERN^STATES^ in CITY OF ST, Louis Average Index Numbers of Receipts from SOUTHERN STATES.) 90 \ C Average Index Numbers \ Receipts from MIDDLE — Average Index Numbers of as Evidenced bu Receipts of Cosh from other Sections WESTERN STATES. of Receipts from form. UNITED (102) VARIATIONS in the STATES. IW5-l<?03* 9o of fhe Countru, CHART XXIII. SEASONAL VARIATIONS in the ft •— fiverage Index Numbers of Shipments to EASTERN RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY STATES B+++++++ fiverage index Numbers of Shipments to SOUTHERN STATES. C—*—*— Average Index Numbers of Shipments "0 to MIDDLE WESTERN STATES fiverage Index Numbers fiverage Index Numbers as Evidenced bu Shipments of Cash To other Sections of the Counfru. fl05-fi08. of Shipments to WESTERN £ in CITY OF ST. Louts STATES of Shipments to TOTAL UN/TED STATES. (103) 104 NATIONAL MONE^rARY COMMISSION. number rising from 59.1 to 84.8. I n eight of the ten years the rate for the twenty-first week was higher than that for the eighteenth. Receipts by St. Louis from the Eastern States in May were negligible. May shipments to the Eastern States, on the other hand, were the largest for any month of the year, amounting (during the four years) to $5,610,000 out of a total for all months of $27,700,000 and being represented by an average index number of 72.6. I n two of the four years the maximum shipments of the year were in May, in another the index number was 78.4, while in the fourth (1905) May shipments were small (i. e., $400,000 represented by an index number of 11.9). May, it will be remembered, was found to be a month of large bank reserves for St. Louis banks. (Chart I X , p . 38.) The high exchange rates in May, and the resulting eastward movement of money, are due largely to the fact t h a t at about this time in St. Louis the bills of boot and shoe, hardware, and dry goods merchants mature, and as their paper is held largely in the East, exchange is required in large amounts. The result is large payments to St. Louis banks, the building up of their reserves, and resulting reduction of their credit balances in New York City. From the first of June to the first of November the demand for money in St. Louis relative to that in New York City increases rapidly, advancing from the cheapest money in the year (twenty-first week) to the dearest money (forty-fourth week). The average exchange rate on New York fell from 35 cents premium in the twentyfirst week to 60.5 cents discount in the forty-fourth week. The average index number fell from 84.8 to 15.7. How extensive this fall is m a y be seen from the following facts. The minimum rate during the ten years for the twentyfirst week was 5 cents premium, and the minimum index number of rates was 30. The maximum rate in the forty-fourth week was 20 cents discount and the maximum index number was 40. Eight of the rates for the twenty-first week were above 24 cents premium, of which six were 40 cents premium or above, nine of the index numbers of rates in the twenty-first week were above 74, of which six were above 90. On the other hand, eight of the ten rates for the forty-fourth week were below 39 cents discount, of which seven were below 54. Seven of the index numbers of rates in the fortyfourth week were below 16. Currency shipments by St. Louis to the Eastern States fell off greatly in June and were discontinued entirely (except for $40,000 in December, 1907) from July till the end of the year. On the other hand, currency receipts by St. Louis from the Eastern States were large, rising from $462,000 in June with an average index number of 3.3, to $7,349,000 in October, with an average index number of 58. I n every year August receipts were larger than June, and in every year but one October receipts were larger than August. There were no transfers of cash to St. Louis from the sub-treasury at New York until August in any of the eleven years 1899^-1909. Such transfers are at their height in September and October and then decline until the end of the year. a This greatly increasing relative demand for money in St. Louis is, of course, attributable to the crop-moving requirements to which reference has been so frequently made. The cashier of a St. Louis banks writes: " N e w York exchange * * * always goes to a discount here in the fall of the year, and this is caused by the large cotton drafts drawn in payment of cotton shipped out from the Southwest. The banks down there either send us drafts drawn on New England points or New York, or else they send drafts drawn on the two large cotton buyers here, who, in turn, draw their drafts on eastern points. The result is a great deal of exchange comes in r for which there is a demand for currency." The resulting low rates of exchange continue as long as the cotton season lasts. During this crop-moving season there are heavy shipments of cash from St. Louis to the Southern States. (Chart X X I I I . ) After about the first week in November the relative demand for money in St. Louis falls off rapidly until about the 1st of December, and then fluctuates at a moderate level until the end of the year. The average rate of exchange on New York City rose from 60.5 cents discount in the forty-fourth week to 53.3 cents premium in the forty-seventh, the average index number rising from 15.7 to 65.1. I n every one of the ten years the rate was decidedly higher in the forty-seventh week than in the forty-fourth. Prom the forty-seventh week to the end of the year the rate fluctuated, to a considerable extent, in the region of par. Twenty-seven of the sixty rates for these weeks during the ten years were between 20 cents premium and 20 cents discount (inclusive). There were, however, a number of high rates and of low rates in December. As previously pointed out, no cash worth mentioning was shipped by St. Louis to the Eastern States in November and December. On the other hand, during both of these months St. Louis received considerable shipments from the East. Of total receipts from the Eastern States during the four years amounting to $35,326,000, there were received $7,346,000 in November and $6,708,000 in December. A reference to Table I X will show t h a t substantial receipts from the Eastern States during these months were fairly regular in their occurrence. The rise in exchange and easing up of the St. Louis money market in the latter p a r t of November and in December is due to the decline in the crop-moving demand for cash, particularly in the South, and the return movement of cash from t h a t section (Chart X X I I ) , which begins the latter part of November. Southern banks in settling their St. Louis bills first use their eastern exchange and then ship currency. The upward movement of exchange is hastened shortly after the first of November by heavy purchases, for about four weeks, of New York «Cf. Chart XXXV, and p. 132. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR, MONEY AND CAPITAL. exchange by dry goods, hardware, and boot-and-shoe houses for the purpose of settling their eastern accounts.*1 105 comparatively small and that which takes place is mainly toward the East. The average index number of shipments to the Eastern States reported by the Middle WestCURRENCY SHIPMENTS BETWEEN THE MIDDLE WESTERN ern States, which was 64.1 in January, was 22.1 in FebSTATES AND OTHER SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ruary and 34.1 in March. I n every year the February Now that we have studied in some detail the seasonal shipments were much smaller than the January ones. variations in the relative demand for money in the two Of total reported shipments to the Eastern States by the chief cities in the Middle Western group of States, we Middle Western States during the four years amounting may briefly consider the relative position during the to $126,919,000, February claimed $6,849,000 and March ' seasons, of the Middle Western group of States as a whole $12,946,000. Eastern States reported for February and as compared with other sections of the country. The March relatively small receipts from the Middle West. basis of study here will be t h a t of currency shipments The average index number for these receipts declined between the Middle Western States and the other from 76.3 in January to 15.5 in February and 14.9 in geographic sections. March. Six of the eight February and March index numbers (1905-1908) were below 15. Of the total reMIDDLE W E S T E R N STATES A N D E A S T E R N S T A T E S . ported receipts from the Middle Western States (during (Charts XIV, XV, XXIV, and XXV, and Tables IX, and 9.) the four years) amounting to $117,158,000, February and Inasmuch as the relative seasonal positions of the March together claimed $15,166,000. Shipments during Middle Western States and the Eastern States have these two months to the Middle Western States reported already been considered in some detail in the discussion by the Eastern States, and receipts from the Eastern of the cities of Chicago and St. Louis, a brief reference to States reported by the Middle Western States were the seasonal relations of the Middle Western group b as a negligible. whole with the Eastern group will suffice. April and May normally witness a renewal of the eastJanuary exhibits a strong movement of cash from the ward currency flow from the Middle West. The average Middle Western States to the Eastern States. The aver- index number of shipments to the Eastern States reage index number for January shipments to the Eastern ported by the Middle Western States which was 22.1 in States was 64.1, the index numbers for the four years February and 34.1 in March, increased to 43 in April having ranged from 34.4 to 100. Of total shipments to and to 79.2 in May. The increase was quite regular in the Eastern States reported by the Middle Western States its occurrence. Of total reported shipments to the amounting to $126,919,000, during the four years, Eastern States amounting to $126,919,000 during the $21,223,000 was shipped in January. The figures re- four years May had $23,010,000. The reported figures ported by the Eastern States for receipts of cash from the for receipts by the Eastern States from the Middle WestMiddle Western States tell the same story of a strong ern States show the same strong eastward flow of cash in eastward movement in January, the average index April and May. There was an advance in the average number being 76.3, and the reported January receipts index number of such receipts from 14.9 in March to amounting to $23,085,000 out of a total for all months of 37.8 in April and to 75.4 in May. I n every year April $117,158,000. Shipments to the Middle West reported receipts were larger than March receipts, and in every by Eastern States for January and receipts from the year but one May receipts were larger than April. Of Eastern States reported by Middle West for January were total receipts from the Middle Western States amounting negligible. to $117,158,000 for the four years, April and May claimed The reasons for this eastward movement in January $39,096,000. have already been explained. 6 A comparatively small movement of cash from the I n February and March the movement of cash between Eastern States to the Middle West in April and May is the Middle Western States and the Eastern States is shown by the figures. The eastward movement above mentioned, which culmia Of. pp. 39-40. & The only banks in the Middle Western group to report were as fol- nates in May, begins to subside in June and becomes lows: Indiana, clearing-house banks of Evansville and Fort Wayne, practically nil by September, meanwhile a westward and the bank in South Bend, which handles most of the shipments for movement sets in about June and culminates in October, that city; Illinois, eight to ten (varying in the different years) of the when it reaches the maximum for the year. A reference principal clearing-house banks; Iowa, clearing-house banks of Davenport and Des Moines; Michigan, clearing-house banks of Grand Rapids; to the charts will show these movements to be very pronounced. The average index number of receipts from Minnesota, clearing-house banks of Minneapolis and St. Paul; Missouri, clearing-house banks of St. Louis; Ohio, clearing-house banks of Cin- the Middle Western States, which was 75.4 in May, was cinnati. Figures for the clearing-house banks of Cleveland were 43.2 in June, 27.8 in July, 7.2 in August, 1.5 in September, received too late to be incorporated in the figures for the Middle Western and 1.8 in October. Of a total of $117,158,000 reported group and are given separately on pp.—; Wisconsin, clearing-house by the Eastern States as received from the Middle Westbanks of Milwaukee. ern States during the four years, only $1,591,000 were cCf. p. 28. CHART XXIV. .SEASONAL VARIATIONS • Average Index Numbers of Receipts from EASTERN STATES. in the RELICT/YE'DEMAND FOR MONET in *?•+-••"••«*"*• Average Index Numbers of Receipts from SOUTHERN STATES, C— -Average Index Numbers of Receipts from WESTERN STATES. "Average Index Numbers of Receipts from TOTAL UNITED STATES\ (106) MIDDLE WESTERN STATES as Evidenced bu Receipts of Cash from other Sections of the CounfrQ. 1105-1103. CHART XXV. I -Average Index Numbers of Shipments fa EASTERN STATES. 5- Average Index Numbers of Shipments fo SOUTHERN STATES. -Average Index Numbers of Shipments to WESTERN STATES. "Average Index Numbers Shipments I SEASONAL I I I VARIATIONS in /he RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY in MIDDLE WESTERN STATES as Evidenced bu Shipments of Cash fo other Secfions of the M05-1108. Country. of fo TOTAL UM/TED STATES.' (107) 108 NATIONAL MONE'TARY COMMISSION. received in September and October. The same story is told by the figures for shipments by Middle Western States to the Eastern States, the average index number of which dropped continuously from 79.2 in May to 0.4 in September, and then advanced to 7.8 in October. During the four years out of total shipments of $126,919,000 only $3,777,000 were in September and October. Turning our attention to the westward movement we find the average index number of shipments from the Eastern States to the Middle Western States advancing from 6.1 in June to 16.1 in July, 55.1 in August, 59.5 in September, and 82.5 in October. Of total reported shipments to the Middle Western States by the Eastern States during the four years amounting to $173,275,000, October claimed $38,043,000, and the four months August, September, October, and November claimed $114,796,000. Keceipts reported by the Middle Western States from the Eastern States show the same strong westward movement beginning in June and culminating in October. For these receipts the average index number advanced from 0.5 in May to 5.7 in June, 15.2 in July, 54.8 in August, 55.4 in September, and 83.9 in October. I n every year b u t one September receipts were higher than July receipts, and October receipts were higher than September receipts. The maximum index number for July was 34.3, the minimum one for October was 64.4. August, September, and October claimed $77,942,000 of total reported receipts from the Eastern States during the four years, amounting to $142,966,000. The share of October alone was $34,603,000. The above figures afford some idea of the extent and regularity of the westward movement of cash induced by the crop-moving demand. The westward movement thus culminating in October falls off rapidly in November; and in December the tide turns in the other direction, the eastward movement, as we have seen, becoming very pronounced in January. Receipts by the Middle Western States from the Eastern States, which were represented by an average index number of 83.9 for October, were represented by 42.9 for November, and 42.3 for December. The amount of October receipts from the Eastern States was $34,603,000, of November receipts was $18,522,000, and of December receipts was $16,495,000. Viewing the movement from the standpoint of reported westward shipments by the Eastern States, we find the average index number of such shipments falling from 82.5 in October, to 55.7 in November, and 46.3 in December. I n amount the total December shipments were only slightly more than half those of October. I n November, and still more in December, there is a return movement of cash from the Middle West. The average index number of shipments to the Eastern States, which was 0.4 in September, and 7.8 in October, rose to 15.7 in November, and to 24.7 in December. Reported shipments to the Eastern States for November and December amounted to $11,933,000 out of a total for all months of $126,919,000. The figures for receipts from the Middle Western States reported by the Eastern States for November and December likewise point to an eastward movement increasing each month from October to January. The average index number for such receipts rose from 1.8 in October to 5.4 in November, 29.6 in December, and 76.3 in January. During t h e four years the amount reported as received from the Middle Western States was $117,158,000. Of this amount $797,000 was in October, $1,795,000 in November, $7,130,000 in December, and $23,085,000 in January. November and December, then, may be considered as transitional months, during which the strong westward movement of cash for crop-moving purposes, becomes transformed into an almost equally strong return movement. MIDDLE W E S T E R N S T A T E S A N D N E W E N G L A N D S T A T E S . The relative positions of these two sections as evidenced by the seasonal flow of cash between them was discussed on pages 93 and 94. MIDDLE W E S T E R N S T A T E S A N D S O U T H E R N STATES. (Charts XXIV, XXV, XXVII, and XXVIII, and Tables IX and 9.) Our next topic is seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in the Middle Western States compared with the Southern States, a as evidenced by currency movements between the two sections. Very meager reports were received from the Southern States concerning currency receipts and shipments. Total receipts during the four years from the Middle Western States reported by the Southern States amounted to but $10,720,000, while the total shipments to t h e Southern States reported by the Middle Western States amounted to $188,540,000; on the other hand, total shipments to the Middle Western States reported by t h e Southern States amounted to but $12,842,000 as compared with $119,608,000 reported by the Middle Western States as received from the Southern States. Observing the evidence given by both sets of figures, and giving greater weight to the more complete figures reported by the Middle Western States, we find t h e evidence pointing to the following seasonal tendencies: January is clearly the month of largest receipts by the Middle Western States from the Southern States. Of the $119,600,000 received from the Southern States during the four years, $17,032,000 was received in January, by far the largest receipts for any month. . The average index number of receipts for J a n u a r y was likewise by far the largest of any month, being 98.3. I n three of the four years January was the month of maximum receipts a The only reports received from the Southern States which could be used were as follows: Arkansas, clearing-house banks of Little Rock; Georgia, clearing-house banks of Atlanta; Kentucky, clearing-house banks of Lexington (three of which did not make full reports); Virginia, one bank in Norfolk. SEASONAL DEMAND FO , MONEY AND CAPITAL. from the South, and in the fourth year it was the month of second highest receipts. Shipments to the Middle Western States reported by the Southern States corroborate this testimony, being the largest for January of any month whether measured by total amounts shipped or by the average index number which was 96.4. Shipments by the Middle Western States to the Southern States and receipts by the Southern States from the Middle Western States were negligible in January. This January movement of cash from the Southern States to the Middle Western States is obviously the return movement of cash after the crop-moving demand in the South has subsided, and it is largely to the central reserve cities of St. Louis and Chicago, principally the former.® While there is a pronounced falling off in the movement of cash to the Middle Western States from the Southern States in February (as compared with January), nevertheless the movement is substantial and continues for several months, with May as the second highest month in the year. Reported receipts by the Middle Western States from the South amounted to $50,718,000 (42 per cent of the total) during the four years in the months of February, March, April, and May, of which sum $14,183,000 was received in May. The average index number, which was 98.3 in January, was 56.7 in February, 61.8 in March, 56.3 in April, and 73.7 in May. These averages are fairly representative of the individual years, for of the sixteen index numbers for these four months (1905-1908) the lowest was 30.5 and eleven were between this figure and 80. Three were above 90. For the four years the Southern States reported shipments to the Middle Western States of $12,842,000, of which sum $4,980,000 was shipped in the four months February to May, and $1,847,000 was shipped in May. The average index number for these shipments was 96.4 in January, 29.5 in February, 34.9 in March, 45.2 in April, and 67.7 in May. These averages are fairly typical, for of the sixteen index numbers occurring in the period eight were between 25 and 75, only two were below 10 and only one was above 85. From February to May, inclusive, reported shipments to the Southern States by the Middle Western States and reported receipts by the Southern States from the Middle Western States were relatively small. This northward movement of cash was largely to St. Louis. b During the relatively inactive months in the agricultural sections of the South, cash naturally moves to the larger cities—especially central reserve cities—for investment and for deposit. Beginning about the 1st of May the banks in the winter wheat section are called upon to finance the winter wheat crop, and this fact may explain in part the strong movement of cash from the South in May. c act Chart XXII, and pp. 80, 81, 84, and 85. 6 Of. pp. 84-85. cCf. pp. 64,65, 70, and 71. 109 Beginning with June there is a rapid decline in the receipts of the Middle Western States from the Southern States, such receipts reaching their minimum figure for the year in November. The amounts received fell steadily from $14,183,000 in May to $4,658,000 in November. There was a like steady decline in the average index number from 73.7 in May to 2.8 for November. A reference to the index numbers for the individual years shows that the averages are fairly typical. Shipments to the Middle Western States reported by the Southern States show a like tendency to decline from May to October (with the exception of a sharp temporary advance in September, which the more complete figures reported by the Middle Western States do not show). The reported shipments to the Middle Western States for the five months June to October (four years) amounted to $3,485,000, as compared with $7,730,000 for the five months January to May. From 67.7 for May, the average index number fell to 18.1 for June, 5.9 for July, and 4.6 for August, it then advanced to 58.8 for September, an advance taking place every year, and declined to 20.5 in October. Contemporaneous with this decline in the shipments from the South to the Middle West there is a strong movement of cash in the opposite direction, apparently showing that despite the great needs of the Middle West for cash in the crop-moving season, the needs of the South are sufficiently stronger to make the flow of cash strongly southward from the Middle West during the cropmoving months. I t should be remembered in this connection that the Middle West has two " central reserve cities," while the South has none. The reported shipments (for the four years) by the Middle Western States to the Southern States, which were for May $5,488,000, increased every month until October, when they amounted to $43,167,000. The average index number rose continuously from 3.7 for May to 95.6 for October. A study of the individual years shows the movement to be regular in its occurrence. The testimony of the figures reported by the Southern States for receipts from the Middle Western States does not harmonize in one important respect with that of the figures just cited. The average index number, as well as the individual index numbers, point to a regularly occurring and large increase in the receipts from the Middle Western States in July. For June the average index was 1.8 ($55,000), and for July it was 84.4 ($3,171,000). Every one of the four years showed a pronounced increase in July. On the other hand, the average index number of shipments to the Southern States reported by the Middle Western States increased only from 10.9 for June to 19.7 for July. In every year the increase in these shipments for July was moderate. Inasmuch as the July shipments to the Southern States reported by the Middle Western States during the four years amounted to $11,939,000, as compared with $3,171,000 for the July receipts from the Middle Western States reported by the 110 NATIONAL MONErTARY COMMISSION. Southern States, it will probably be wise to accept the evidence of the former as the more nearly correct. This judgment is strengthened by the other figures cited above for June and July shipments between these two sections, and by the extreme and temporary character of the movement shown by the reports of July receipts by the Southern States. We may therefore conclude that from June to about October the tide of currency movements grows continually stronger from the Middle West to the South. September and October we have found to be clearly the months of largest movement of cash from the Middle Western States to the Southern States; while January has been found to be clearly the month of largest movement of cash in the opposite direction. November and December, particularly the latter, show considerable movements of cash in both directions and may perhaps best be classed as transitional months. The average receipts from the Southern States by the Middle Western States were the lowest for November of any month, the total November receipts having been but $4,658,000 out of a total for all months of $119,608,000. For November the average index number was but 2.8. Southern States, however, reported quite appreciable shipments to the Middle Western States in November as compared with other months. November shipments amounted to $853,000 out of a total reported for all months of $12,842,000, and the average index number for November was 34.2, making it (in the order of average index numbers) the sixth highest month. Shipments to the Southern States from the Middle States appear, however, to have been more pronounced than shipments in the opposite direction. Middle Western States reported November shipments to the Southern States amounting to $26,757,000 out of a total for all months of $188,540,000, while the average index number (which is fairly representative of the period) was 55.1, making it the third highest month in the year. November receipts of cash from the Middle Western States reported by the Southern States were relatively high, being $1,796,000 out of a total for all months of $10,720,000, and having an average index number of 45.0, making it the third highest month. Although November may perhaps best be considered a transitional month, it appears to belong more properly to the September-October period characterized by large cash movements toward the South, than to the January period characterized by pronounced northward movements. December more than November deserves to be characterized as a transitional month. In this month Middle Western States reported having received from the Southern States $8,886,000, giving an average index number of 38.9; and having shipped to the Southern States $18,757,000, giving an average index number of 36.5. The Southern States, on the other hand, reported having received from the Middle Western States in December $1,065,000, giving an average index number of 23.3; and having shipped to the Middle Western States $776,000, giving an average index number of 26.0. MIDDLE W E S T E R N STATES A N D W E S T E R N STATES. (Charts XXIV and XXV, and Tables IX and 9.) No banks in the " Western S t a t e s " replied to the Commission's letter of inquiry. Evidence concerning currency movements between the Middle Western States and the Western States is therefore based upon the reported receipts and shipments from and to the Western States by the Middle Western States. During the four years 1905-1908 these receipts amounted to $71,684,000 and the shipments to $135,339,000. The more general seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in these two sections as evidenced by currency movements are as follows: January is the month of largest reported receipts by the Middle Western States from the Western States, and per contra the month of lowest reported shipments by the Middle Western States to the Western States. During the four years receipts by the Middle Western States from the Western States amounted to $71,684,000, and of this sum January claimed $7,655,000. The average index number for January receipts was 77.0, making it the highest month in the year (December coming second with an average index number of 71.0). That this average is fairly representative is seen by reference to the January index numbers for the four individual years, which were 82.1, 45.2, 86.0, and 94.6. In all four years January was the month of minimum shipments by the Middle Western States to the Western States. The total amount of the January shipments during the four years was only $3,672,000 out of a total for all months of $135,339,000. This eastward movement of cash is obviously the return flow to the larger cities after the decline of the crop moving demand, and considerable amounts of this returning cash flow into the Chicago banks (pp. 31-33). The movement of cash to the Middle Western States from the Western States declines in February to a moderate level which it maintains, with minor fluctuations, until November when there is a decline to the lowest figure in the year, followed by a pronounced advance in December. Aside from a regular tendency to large receipts from the Western States in January and December, and a considerable tendency for low receipts in July and November, it is impossible to trace any very clear seasonal tendencies in the receipts of cash from the Western States. During the five months February, March, April, May, and June, shipments by the Middle Western States to the Western States were comparatively small. The total shipments for all months during the four years amounted to $135,339,000, of which sum these five months claimed but $33,605,000—much less than their proportionate share. The average index numbers for these months were comparatively low, being 4.6 for SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. Ill Reported shipments by the Middle Western States to the Pacific States were negligible in January and February. The meager data available from the reports of the Pacific States as to receipts and shipments, substantiate the evidence given above that the movement of cash in January and February is from the Pacific States to the Middle Western States. Suggestions which will throw some light on the causes of this eastward movement will be found on page 49. The movement of cash from the Pacific coast to the Middle West, although less pronounced during the next six months, continues in quite substantial proportions through August.® During these months the average index number varied from 24.9 (April) to 50.3 (May), and the amounts received from $1,033,000 in March to $1,831,000 in May. Fifteen of the twenty-four monthly index numbers for the period were above 25, and only four were below 15. With the exception of April none of the months, March to August inclusive, witnessed any appreciable shipments by the Middle Western States to the Pacific States, and the large shipments for April were due entirely to the MIDDLE W E S T E R N STATES A N D PACIFIC STATES.°> shipments of one year, the April shipments for the other (Tables IX and 9, and Charts XXX and XXXI.)& three years having been yerj small. I n September the tide of cash movements appears to The reported figures for shipments of cash between the turn toward the Pacific States and to continue in t h a t Middle Western States and the Pacific States show the direction through October. 6 The average index number following more or less regular seasonal movements: of shipments by the Middle Western States, which was January and February are the months for which the 0.7 in July and 12.2 in August, rose to 60.3 in September, Middle Western States report their heaviest receipts and then declined to 43.7 in October. The maximum from the Pacific States. Of total reported receipts from August index number was 20, while the four September these States during the four years amounting to index numbers were 100, 3.5, 37.5, and 100. Reported $17,650,000, January and February claimed $4,890,000. September shipments to the Pacific States were more than For January the average index number was 67.1, and for three times as large as reported August shipments, and February it was 69.9. The lowest January index numnearly eleven times as large as reported July shipments. ber during the four years was 47.2 ($500,000), and the Receipts by the Middle Western States from the Pacific lowest February one was 38.9 ($218,000). States were lower for September than for any other month, the amount being $632,000 (during the four a Curves for the movements of cash between the Middle Western States and the Pacific States are not plotted on the charts for the Middle years) out of a total for all months of $17,650,000, and Western States, because the movements were relatively unimportant, the average index number being 7.6. October receipts, and because the addition of a fifth curve to these charts would have however, were quite substantial, being $1,307,000, and made the reading of the more important curves difficult. The the average index number being 32.9. reported receipts of the Pacific States from the Middle Western States During November and December cash moves in both and the reported shipments by them to the Middle Western States are too meager to be worth much as evidence. The only banks in the directions, but the movement toward the Middle West Pacific States to report usable figures were 11 to 14 banks in San Franappears to preponderate. Reported receipts by the Midcisco, and the clearing-house banks of Oakland. Their figures cover dle Western States from the Pacific States (during the only the years 1906, 1907, and 1908, the records for 1905 having been four years) rose from $632,000 in September to $1,307,000 destroyed by the earthquake and fire. The total reported receipts from the Middle Western States during the period were but $50,000 in October, and to $1,506,000 in November, and then and the total reported shipments to the Middle Western States were fell to $1,336,000 in December. The average index numbut $2,745,000. In view of the very limited data received from the bers for these four months, respectively, were 7.6, 32.9, Pacific States, our conclusions concerning currency movements be49.5, and 37.5. tween the Middle Western States and the Pacific States will be based Shipments from the Middle Western States to the primarily upon the figures reported by the Middle Western States. & These two charts should be read only in connection with the figures Pacific States were comparatively small in November and of receipts from and shipments to the Pacific States reported by the December, the average index numbers for these two February, 23.6 for March, 9.7 for April, 10.1 for May, and 18.2 for June—the beginning of a continued increase. With the opening of summer, a flow of cash to the Western States for crop purposes begins, becoming strong by August, and culminating in October. The shipments by the Middle Western States to the Western States increased steadily from $5,668,000 for May to $27,572,000 for October, the average index number rose from 10.1 for May to 92.3 for October. That this movement is a regular one may be seen by a comparison of the four May index numbers which were 5.5, 29.2, 1.9, and 3.5. with the four October ones which were 100, 100, 100, and 69.3. The westward movement just referred to falls off rapidly in November and December, and, by the latter month, as we have seen, the tide turns strongly in the opposite direction. For October the average index number for shipments to the Western States was 92.3 ($27,572,000), for November it was 36.2 ($12,319,000), and for December 20.8 ($8,686,000). Middle Western States, as the average figures are in several cases not representative of the currency movements for the individual years. Cf. pp. 64-67. «Cf. pp. 49-51. & With reference to causes, cf., pp. 51-52. 112 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. CHAET XXVI. months, respectively, being 14.4 ($663,000) ($861,000). a and 20.7 MIDDLE W E S T E R N S T A T E S — T O T A L R E C E I P T S A N D S H I P M E N T S O F C A S H . The months of largest receipts by the Middle Western States from all sections of the country taken together (including other States in the Middle Western group), appear to be in their order October, September, January, and August; and the months of largest shipments to all sections, October, September, August, and November. Three of the four months of largest receipts are accordingly identical with three of the four months of largest shipments. This is made possible in part by the central position of the Middle Western States and in part by the large cash shipments among these States themselves. The Middle Western States are making their heaviest shipments to the Southern States, the Western States, and to each other at the very time that they are having their heaviest receipts from the Eastern States. SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY IN THE SOUTHERN STATES. Under this heading will be considered the evidence afforded by domestic exchange rates in New Orleans on New York City, and t h a t afforded by currency shipments between the Southern States and other geographic divisions. «Cf. pp. 51-52. DOMESTIC E X C H A N G E I N N E W O R L E A N S « ON N E W YORK CITY. (Chart XXVI and Tables IX, X, 9 and 12.) The figures for domestic exchange rates cover the ten years 1899-1908. New Orleans banks did not report their currency receipts and shipments, so that we have not the evidence of currency movements to and from New Orleans to supplement t h a t of exchange rates as in the case of the other representative cities studied. Domestic exchange rates on New York City show the following more or less regular seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in New Orleans: There is the usual decline in the demand for money in January. The average exchange rate rose from 35.5 cents discount for the first week with an average index number (of rates) of 53.5 to 0.5 cents discount for the third week, with an average index number of 77.6 (the highest point in the year). In five of the ten years the rate was higher in the third week than in the first, and in three of the remaining years it was the same for the two weeks; in the other two years (1900 and 1908) there was a considerable decline from the first to the third week. Six rates in the first week were below par, of which five were below 39 cents discount, three o For information concerning the New Orleans money market the writer is indebted to Mr. R. S. Hecht, of the Hibernia Bank and Trust Company of New Orleans; Mr. Fred I. Kent, vice-president of the Bankers Trust Company of New York City, and to Prof. Morton A. Aldrich of Tulane University. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. rates were pars and one was above par; on the other hand only two rates in the third week were below par (of which one was below 39), four were pars, and four were above par. After the crop moving demand and the demand for January 1st settlements are over, money naturally flows from the neighboring agricultural territory to the city, and the demand for New York exchange increases to transfer funds to New York City (and elsewhere) for deposit and investment during the slack season in the South. The second seasonal tendency to be observed is an increase in the relative demand for money in New Orleans from the third week to the eighth. During this period the average exchange rate fell from 0.5 cent discount to 26 cents discount, and the average index number of rates from 77.6 to 59.4. In seven of the ten years the rate was lower in the eighth week than in the third, in two years it was higher, and in one year it was the same for both weeks. The third week had two index numbers below par in the ten years, of which one was below 30 cents discount, while the eighth week had seven below par, of which four were below 30 cents discount* This decline in exchange, therefore, from the latter part of January to the last of February appears to be reasonably regular in its occurrence. Bank reserves, it will be recalled, were comparatively large during this period though showing a strong tendency to decline (pp. 43-44). By this period the bulk of the cash shipped South for crop moving purposes has returned to New York, and the New York money market is weak, with the resulting tendency to a lower New York exchange in the West and South. The demand for money during March and April in New Orleans relative to New York City does not exhibit any strong tendency to increase or decrease. Average exchange rates and average index numbers remained fairly constant during these months, at a moderately high level as compared with the rest of the year. Of the one hundred index numbers of rates for these ten weeks (eighth to seventeenth weeks) during the ten years 18991908, fifty-five were between 33 and 67, seven were below 33, and thirty-eight were above 67; thirty-four of the hundred rates for this period were between 20 cents premium and 20 cents discount, seventeen were above 20 cents premium, and forty-nine were below 20 cents discount. The chart shows a pronounced decline in exchange rates from the seventeenth to the nineteenth week, the average rate falling from 21.5 cents discount to 46 cents discount, and the average index number from 61 to 44.2. This decline is apparently not of much significance, for it took place in only five of the ten years; in four years there was an advance, and in one year the rate was the same for the two weeks. From about the middle of May to about the middle of June the relative demand for money in New Orleans 16065°—11 8 113 appears to fall off. The average exchange rate (for the" ten-year period) rose from 46 cents discount in the nineteenth week to 8.5 cents discount for the twentythird week, the average index number of rates rising at the same time from 44.2 to 73.8. In eight of the ten years the rate for the twenty-third week was higher than that for the nineteenth, in one year it was lower, and in one it was the same for the two weeks. This rise in exchange, a prominent New Orleans banker writes, "is probably due to heavy demand for remittances on the part of merchants and to preparations for the semiannual settlements." From the latter part of June till about the middle of July the relative demand for money in New Orleans shows a strong tendency to increase, the increase representing probably the beginnings of the demand for cash to meet the needs of agriculturists. The average exchange rate fell from 8.5 cents discount for the twentythird week to 56.5 cents discount for the twenty-seventh week, the average index number declining at the same time from 73.8 to 37.9. A reference to the figures for the individual years shows that for every one of the ten years the rate was considerably lower in the twentyseventh week than in the twenty-third. A temporary reaction occurs from about the middle of July to about the middle of August, the relative demand for money in New Orleans declining considerably during those weeks. Comparing the thirtieth week with the twenty-seventh we find the average rate increasing from 56.5 cents discount to 26 cents discount, and the average index number from 37.9 to 57.8. Of the ten years taken individually the rate for the thirtieth week was considerably higher than that for the twenty-seventh in seven years, and was the same for the two weeks in the other three years. I have been unable to find any satisfactory explanation why exchange in New Orleans should normally rise at this time. I t may possibly be connected with the decline in available funds in New York City which immediately follows July 1 disbursements. (Cf. Chart IV.) The southern crop-moving demand for money begins in earnest about the middle of August and forces exchange down rapidly and almost continuously until the minimum rates for the year are reached in the fore part of November. At this time the South needs all the money it can readily get for crop-moving purposes, as does also the Middle West, with the result that available cash in New York City is rapidly depleted. (Cf. Chart IV.) The average rate of exchange fell from 28.5 cents discount in the thirty-second week to $1.09 discount in the forty-fifth week, the average index number falling at the same time from 57.5 to 7.3. I n everyone of the ten years the rate was decidedly lower for the forty-fifth week than for the thirty-second. Only one index number in the thirty-second week was below 33.3, while not a single one in the forty-fifth week was above that figure. I n six of the ten years the minimum rate for the year 114 NATIONAL MONE':TARY COMMISSION. occurred in the forty-fifth week, in two of the years the maximum rate for the year occurred in the thirty-second week. The crop-moving demand having reached its high point the fore part of November (forty-fifth week), the return flow of cash from the near-by agricultural communities to the New Orleans banks then sets in, money becomes more plentiful, and exchange rates advance, the upward movement being expedited by the holiday demand for New York exchange, and the demand incident to January settlements. There was an advance in the average rate from $1.09 discount for the fortyfifth week to 66 cents discount for the fifty-second week, and an advance in the average index number from 7.3 for the forty-fifth week to 34.1 for the fifty-second. The individual rates for the forty-fifth week varied from $2 discount to 75 cents discount, while the lowest rate in the fifty-second week was $1 discount, and five rates in the fifty-second week were higher than the maximum rate of the forty-fifth week (i. e., 75 cents discount). I n seven of the ten years the rate for the fifty-second week was higher than t h a t for the forty-fifth week, in two years it was lower, and in one year it was the same for both weeks. Thus the evidence points strongly to an advancing exchange from the fore part of November to the end of the year. Transfers of cash to New Orleans by the United States subtreasury at New York were comparatively unimportant in most years (1899-1909) during the first eight months. They were large during the last four months, showing a maximum in December.® CURRENCY SHIPMENTS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STATES AND OTHER SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. Now that we have considered the seasonal variations in the demand for money in New Orleans—selected as a representative southern city—relative to New York City, we may proceed to the consideration of seasonal variations in the group of Southern States as a whole relative to other groups of States. I n this discussion it should be borne in mind that comparatively few southern cities 6 replied to the Commission's circular of inquiry, and that as a result chief reliance must be placed upon the reports of cities in other groups of States (particularly in the Eastern and Middle Western groups) in the matter of movements of cash to and from the Southern States. SOUTHERN STATES AND EASTERN STATES. (Charts XIV, XV, XXVII, and XXVIII, and Tables IX, and 9.) The conclusions in this section are based largely upon the following data for the four-year period 1905-1908: 1. Receipts from the Eastern States reported by the Southern States amounting to $16,955,000. aCi. Chart XXXV and pp. 131-132. &Cf. p. 108, note «. 2. Shipments to the Southern States- reported by the Eastern States amounting to $153,705,000. 3. Shipments to the Eastern States reported by the Southern States amounting to $13,698,000. 4. Receipts from the Southern States reported by the Eastern States amounting to $193,724,000. As might be expected in January, the movement of cash is strongly toward the Eastern States. The average index number of receipts by the Eastern States from the Southern States for the four Januarys (1905-1908) was 100; in other words, in every year January was the month of maximum receipts from the Southern States. Of total reported receipts during the four-year period of $193,724,000, January receipts amounted to $39,554,000. Viewing the situation from the other end, i. e., that of shipments to the Eastern States reported by the Southern States, we arrive at the same conclusion. The average January index number for reported shipments to the Eastern States was 90.7. Of $13,698,000 so shipped during the four years, $4,875,000 was shipped in J a n uary. Receipts from the Eastern States reported by the Southern States, as likewise the shipments to the Southern States reported by the Eastern States, were negligibly small in January. During the five months February to June, inclusive, the figures show a moderate movement of cash from the Southern States to the Eastern States. The average index number of receipts by the Eastern States, which was 100 in January, declined to 33 in February, advanced to 45.3 in April, and then declined to 33.8 in June. Most of the individual index numbers during these months were of moderate size, fourteen of the twenty being between 25 and 75. Of total receipts from the Southern States amounting to $193,724,000 during the four years, $94,861,000 occurred in these five months. A similar story is told by the figures of shipments to the Eastern States reported by the Southern States. The average index number, which was 90.7 in January, dropped to 36.3 in February, and to 5.9 in March; it advanced to 29.7 in April, and then declined to 20.8 in May and rose to 21.9 in June. The larger part of the individual index numbers for these five months were either low or moderate. Twelve were below 20, six were between 20 and 50, and two were above 50. Of total reported shipments to the Eastern States of $13,698,000 for the four years, $5,084,000 occurred in these five months. A reference to the charts and tables showing movements of cash from the Eastern States to the Southern States supports the conclusion t h a t from February to June there is a moderate movement of cash toward the Eastern States. Beginning with July there is an increasing movement of money from the Eastern States to the Southern States for crop moving purposes, attaining its highest points in September and October, which are the months of the largest southward movement for the year. The average CHART XXVII. SEASONAL VARIATIONS mfhc FELATJVE PEMAND FOR MONEY m SOUTHERN 10 STATES as Evidenced bif Receipts of Cash from other Sections of the Country. GO WS'MOS. ,1 A Average tndex Numbers of _ 'I Receipts from EASTERN STATES. b'——*- Average tndex Numbers of Receipts from MIPDU WESTERN STATES 30 -£ Average tndex Numbers of Receipts from TOTAL UNITED STATES WonM Wan/M •S (115) CHART XXVIII. _ 1 \e 1 T~ 1 1 SEASONAL T 1 ( ] /?—* -Average Index Numbers RELATIVE DEMAND foe MONEY 1 of Sh'ipmenfs fo EASTERN 0 STATES B— "Average SOUTHERN STATES 90 'i ~~l \i in m f i VARIATIONS in fhe 10 ! index Numbers of ll IK jf Shipments fo MIDDLE WESTERN STATES. so AO os Evidenced bq Shipments of Cash fo of her Sections of fhe Counfru. C— —Average index Numbers of Shipments fo foTAi 1/N/TEP STATES it ti If05-/<l OS. n j V i 1 SO 1 1 \ / / \ A'' \ \ \\ \ \ \ / \ I \ \ / /o \ ^ > ^*S**«^ '* // ' / » / ' / t f X 1 40 // 30 [/ \ /] fo 1 J'/ 1 o Wonfk /k \ \ \ \ \\ \ 1 1 1 i i i \ \\ \ to 1 60 / \\ \\ \\ I i i i i \\ \ \ / \x 40 J\ \ / \ \ / \ / 1 X 10 1 / \ / / \ // / / CO 1 if 1 •f 1 (116) 1 4~ I'. 1 1 ^b^ % a 0 1 •£ &* ^ font\ SEASONAL DEMAND FC , MONEY AND CAPITAL. index number of shipments by the Eastern States to the Southern States increased from 5.5 in June to 12.1 in July, 21.9 in August, and 82.7 in September, then declined slightly to 79.6 in October. I n all four years July shipments were larger than June shipments, August shipments larger than July, and September shipments larger than August. Of total shipments to the Southern States by the Eastern States, amounting to $153,705,000 during the four years, $61,787,000 were made in September and October. Reported receipts by the Southern States show the same strong movement of cash from the Eastern States beginning in July and culminating in September and October. The average index number which was 2 in June advanced to 6 in July, 17.4 in August, 66.8 in September, and 76.2 in October. Of the $16,955,000 reported as received from the Eastern States during the four years $11,564,000 were received in September and October. Reported shipments to the Eastern States by the Southern States and reported receipts by the Eastern States from the Southern States were negligible during September and October. The direction of the cash movement in November and December is not so clear. Although the average index number of shipments by Eastern States to Southern States declined sharply in November, nevertheless, with the exception of September and October, November and December are the highest two months in the year, their average index numbers being respectively 50.8 and 58.7. Of reported shipments from the Eastern States to the Southern States during the four years, amounting to $153,705,000, November and December claimed $45,884,000. Southern States, on the other hand, reported relatively small receipts from theJEastern States during November and December, the average index numbers for these two months being, respectively, 11.5 and 10.6, and the receipts during these two months (for the four years) being but $1,730,000 out of a total of $16,955,000 for all months. Eastern States reported comparatively small receipts of cash from the Southern States during November and December, the average index numbers being, respectively, 11 and 16.9, and the amounts received being $9,344,000 and $11,301,000 out of a total for all months of $193,724,000. Southern States, however, reported substantial shipments to the Eastern States during November and December, the average index numbers being, respectively, 27.6 and 27.3, and the amounts shipped being $1,390,000 and $1,230,000 out of a total of $13,698,000 for all months. November and December may perhaps best be classed as transitional months between the period of strongest southern movement of currency and the month of January, in which the return flow is most pronounced. 117 S O U T H E R N S T A T E S A N D MIDDLE W E S T E R N STATES. The shipments between these two sections were discussed under u Middle Western States and Southern States" (pp. 108-110). S O U T H E R N STATES AND W E S T E R N STATES. Southern States reported no receipts from and no shipments to the Western States for the four years, and no replies to the Commission's circular of inquiry were received from the Western States. S O U T H E R N STATES AND PACIFIC S T A T E S . No shipments of cash between these two sections during the four years were reported. CURRENCY SHIPMENTS BETWEEN THE WESTERN STATES AND OTHER SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. No cities in the " Western States " sent in replies, which could be used, to the Commission's letter of inquiry. Conclusions with reference to currency movements between the Western States and other sections must, therefore, be based entirely upon the reports of the other sections. W E S T E R N STATES AND E A S T E R N STATES. (Tables IX and 9.) The reports of the Eastern States for shipments to the WesternStates during thef our years covered but $4,353,000 and those for receipts from the Western States covered but $3,000,000. One is not justified in having much confidence in inductions drawn from such meager data, unless the figures for the different years point clearly to the same conclusions. A reference to the tables, however, will show little evidence of regularity in the reported seasonal movements between the Western States and the Eastern States, and the only positive conclusion which they seem to warrant is that in January there is a fairly regular tendency for cash to move from the Western States to the Eastern States. The January receipts from the Western States amounted to $1,085,000 out of a total of $3,000,000 for all months, the average index number for January being 52.8. Except for the year 1908, however, in which $975,000 was received, the annual receipts from the Western States in January were, in absolute amounts, very small. WESTERN STATES AND N E W ENGLAND STATES. Currency movements between these two sections are negligible. W E S T E R N STATES A N D PACIFIC S T A T E S . (Tables IX and 9.) S O U T H E R N STATES A N D N E W E N G L A N D S T A T E S . Currency movements between these two sections, which are unimportant, are discussed on page 94. The reported figures for shipments of money between these two sections cover only $3,273,000 for the three years 1906-1908, and are too meager, and too uncertain 118 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. in their evidence, to justify any inference except perhaps the tentative one that October is usually a month of relatively large shipments by the Pacific States to the Western States. During October (for the three years) such shipments amounted to $399,000 as compared with $3,170,000 for all months. The average index number for October shipments was 80.8. SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY IN THE PACIFIC STATES. The evidence afforded by exchange rates in San Francisco upon New York City will first be considered in connection with the reported receipts and shipments of cash by the banks of San Francisco and of the neighboring city of Oakland from and to the Eastern States. Afterwards will be considered the evidence afforded by reported shipments and receipts of cash by other geographic sections to and from the Pacific States. DOMESTIC EXCHANGE IN S A N FRANCISCO ON N E W YORK CITY. (Charts XXIX a XXX, and XXXI, and Tables IX, X, 9, and 12.) Before taking up the subject of seasonal variations in San Francisco domestic exchange rates on New York City, it may be well to observe that in a number of respects the San Francisco domestic exchange market is a peculiar one. In the first place the principal kind of money in circulation is gold coin and this fact materially influences the range of domestic exchange fluctuations, i. e., the shipping points. Concerning this matter I can do no better than quote from letters of Mr. F. L. Lipman of the Wells Fargo Nevada National Bank. Mr. Lipman writes (under date of February 7, 1908): " I n the East the medium of exchange is paper or new gold by weight. In California it is current gold coin by tale, with a mingling of paper and new gold. The first effect of an upward movement of exchange, there, is that at about 40 cents per $1,000 the currency shipping point is reached, which in due course, drains off our paper money. At approximately $1.10 per $1,000 the gold shipping point is reached.5 Of course the only gold that can be economoThere is a very slight error in the curve for "Index Numbers of Exchange Rates,'' and there are two in that for " Index Numbers of Relative Demand for Money," as plotted in Chart XXIX. In the former curve the error consists in the omission of the point for the third week, the points for the second and fourth weeks having been connected by the line; in the latter curve the errors consist in the omission of the point for the third week and of that for the nineteenth week, the points for the second and fourth weeks having been connected by the line, and those for the eighteenth and twentieth weeks. & Under date of June 29, 1910, Mr. Lipman supplements the above explanation and the one in the succeeding paragraph by the statement that: " Recently, the sub treasury here has been authorized, in issuing its gold certificates of deposit payable to order in denomination of ten thousand dollars, to make them payable at the subtreasury in New York. This procedure modifies the exchange situation. Assuming that shippers would insure such gold certificates, the shipping point would become the same as that for currency, say 40 cents per $1,000. Since the only money that can be paid to the subtreasury ically shipped is new gold. Now it not infrequently happens that the demand for remittance will be so great as to exhaust (1st) the currency and (2d) the new gold, leaving only our current gold, for which there is practically no shipping point, the discount on worn coin being practically prohibitory." A second peculiarity of the San Francisco exchange market arises from the fact that San Francisco, being the chief port city of the Pacific coast and the seat of one of the United States mints and subtreasury offices, is the recipient of large quantities of gold from gold-producing regions, i. e., California, Alaska, and Australia. The United States mint will issue without any charge its transfer drafts on the subtreasury in New York in return for deposits of gold, the new product of mines, or for deposits of imported gold. "Frequently," writes Mr. Lipman, "this usage is without influence on our local market, as when large importations of Australian gold are received for New York on London account. At other times this practice of the Treasury has a decided effect on our exchange market as, for instance, when the early gold shipments come down from Alaska. These shipments command the service of the Treasury Department to the full amount thereof, while a portion at least of the proceeds is used in payment of local bills for supplies to Alaska from this city. This throws on the market an additional supply of exchange when such exchange is desired. The owners of the gold, however, have the privilege of taking gold coin instead of eastern exchange from the Treasury, and this alternative tends to bring exchange to about par. The Government also influences exchange from the other side, by its willingness to transmit money by telegraph from New York and Chicago to this city." a Prof. Carl C. Plehn, of the University of California, suggests three other characteristics of the San Francisco domestic exchange market, i. e., (1) the close exchange relations with the Orient, (2) the fact that in San Francisco, New York bills very frequently represent merely steps in a general arbitrage transaction, and (3) theapprefor these gold certificates is new gold coin, the effect is to make 40 cents per $1,000 the shipping point both for currency and for gold until the available new gold has become exhausted." a The Director of the Mint has furnished me figures, from which the following table has been compiled, for the value of deposits and purchases of gold bullion at the San Francisco mint during the three yeara 1907-1909: Quarter e n d i n g March 31 June 30 September 30 December 31 Total 1907. $7,236,384.31 6,522,033.46 10,266,144.50 7,842,740.02 '31,867,302.29 1908. 1909. $7,882,858.68 $8,438,289.89 8,230,257.73 8,559,772.95 11,477,112.13 8,419,554.59 9,531,259. 54 5,591,512.97 37,121,488.08 31,009,130.40 The first gold shipments from Alaska usually arrive in San Francisco between June 10 and 15, and the receipts from Alaska then continue, varying in volume, until about the 1st of November. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. first. In the first week the rate for only two years was above par, while the minimum rate for the seventh week was 60 cents premium (1906). The maximum index number in the first week was 82.9, the minimum index number in the seventh week was 85.7, while the maximum rate for the year occurred in the seventh week three times. Inasmuch as the only banks in the Pacific States to report currency receipts and shipments in such a form that their figures could be used were those of San Francisco and Oakland (p. 111,note a ), the currency movements reported by the Pacific States may be considered as practically synonymous with those of San Francisco. A ref- ciable interest element involved in demand transactions because of the distance between San Francisco and New York. SEASONAL 119 VARIATIONS. From the beginning of January to about the first of March there is a rapid decline in the relative demand for money in San Francisco, resulting in the lowest level of the year during February. The average rate of exchange rose from 30 cents discount in the first week to $1.05 premium in the seventh, the average index number rising at the same time from 45.8 to 95.3. In every one of the eight years (1901-1908) the rate was much higher in the seventh week than in the CHART XXIX. " 1 " 1 • J • Seasonal 1 I • •• ' Variations in fhe / A » 90 r~ / / as Evidenced Exchange [l SO I \\ IV / by New Yortc City., Wt-1102. A . \\ '// 1/\ \ ,N \ N. if r\ 1 A \\ I 60 SO Rates on wJ N • - U * \f V V k \ \\ A ~*\3\ \l 1 \fo \ \ i i i CO i if 11 M \ l\ 30 I I If 20 Eschar ae l0 QWeeks \Monfhi Jonuary mmmm % | February \ i0 March /ndex i Numbers Mo</ ia Junt, i I• | ifpr/7 1 erence to Chart X X X I shows that January and February were months of relatively large shipments from San Francisco to the Eastern States. Of total shipments to the Eastern States for the three years, amounting to $15,291,000, January and February claimed $4,306,000. The average index numbers for shipments for these two months, respectively, were 51.4 and 49.1. There were no reported receipts for January from the Eastern States during the three years except $110,000 in 1908. a The evidence accordingly points strongly to a small demand for money in San Francisco relative to New o The comparatively high average index number of receipts for January (33.3) shown on Chart XXX is accordingly not representative, being due to relatively high receipts in only one year, there being no receipts at all in the other two years. cf Relative Demand for • Money ;£ | s/u/tf .O | August 3? \Sepfember\Oc#ober 1 '* !1 M 1 x1 V v 4to so i-i L Rates e Index i Numbers 01 Exchange Rates 1 >r'\ M \ M \ f.oo\ f T - W^A t S \tfovember\Dt cember^sjan. nfenMj York City during the latter part of January and the entire month of February. Among the principal factors cheapening money in San Francisco at this time and forcing up exchange may be mentioned; (1) the fact that advances which have been made for the movement of general crops up and down the Pacific coast are being repaid very rapidly; (2) the demand for eastern exchange with which to pay bills incurred for holiday purchases; and, finally (3), the latter part of February, the desire of taxpayers to discharge eastern obligations and get movable funds out of the State before the tax returns of the first Monday in March are made to the assessors From the fore part of March to the fore part of June the demand for money in San Francisco relative to New York «Cf. p. 49. 120 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. City tends to increase, although there are two minor interruptions in this upward tendency (the one from the eleventh to the thirteenth week, which is not regular in its occurrence, and the one from the seventeenth to the nineteenth week, which occurs quite regularly). The average rate fell from $1.05 premium for the seventh week to 12.9 cents premium for the twenty-first week, the average index number falling at the same time from 95.3 to 56.1. I n every one of the seven a years the rate was lower in the twenty-first week than in the seventh. Five rates in the seventh week were higher than the highest rate in the twenty-first week ($1 premium). On the other hand, four rates in the twenty-first week were lower than the lowest rate in the seventh week (60 cents premium). March, April, and May are months of comparatively small shipments of cash by San Francisco to the Eastern States, the sums shipped during these months (for the three years) amounting to b u t $2,548,000 out of $15,291,000 for all months, and their average index numbers being, respectively, 24.4, 5.1, and 18.6. Receipts from the Eastern States during these months were of little significance despite the relatively high average shown for April and May on Chart X X X . I n April, 1906, $1,650,000 was received from the Eastern States, and in May of the same year $2,615,000 was received. There were no receipts in either of these months in 1907 or 1908. I n May and J u n e considerable amounts of cash were transferred to San Francisco by the United States subtreasury in New York during the years 1904-1909. b Among the causes at work in reducing exchange rates at this time may be mentioned; (1) the readjustment after the heavy demands for exchange which were made anticipatory of assessment day; (2) preparation for the second installment of taxes which become delinquent the last Monday in April; 0 (3) demand for funds by the large fruit canneries with which to buy sugar and tin in preparation for the annual fruit pack which begins in May; (4) by May the shipping trade in green fruits has begun, giving rise to many eastern bills; (5) demand for funds for equipping fishing companies going on long trips. The demand for money in San Francisco relative to the demand for it in New York City shows a decline during the last two or three weeks in June, doubtless caused in part by the demand for remittances east to cover semiannual payments of interest, etc. From the twenty-first to the twenty-fourth week the average rate of exchange advanced from 12.9 cents premium to 48.6 cents premium, and the average index number of rates from 56.1 to 75.6. The rate advanced at this time in six of the seven years for which quotations are available. I n the twenty-first week three of the seven rates were below par as compared with only one in the twenty-fourth week. For June no receipts of cash from the Eastern States were reported during the three years, while shipments to <* There was no usable quotation for the twenty-first week in 1906. &Cf. Chart XXXV and pp. 131-132. cCf.p. 50. the Eastern States were reported in every year. Of total shipments to the Eastern States for all months (during the three years), amounting to $15,291,000, June claimed $2,681,000, the largest amount for any month, the average index number for June being 53.4. From about the 1st of July to the forepart of September there is an almost continuous increase in the relative demand for money in San Francisco. The average rate of exchange fell from 48.6 cents premium in the twentyfourth week to 6.9 cents premium in the thirty-fourth, the average index number of rates falling at the same time from 75.6 to 51.3. For the thirty-fourth week the rate was lower than for the twenty-fourth in five of t h e seven years for which rates for both weeks are available. Two of the seven rates for the twenty-fourth week were below 50 cents premium, while seven of the eight rates for the thirty-fourth week were below that figure. This increase in the demand for money in San F r a n cisco relative to New York City was not sufficient during the period studied to draw cash from the Eastern States, for no receipts at this time were reported from t h a t section during the three years 1906-1908; it was, however, sufficient to reduce the flow of cash to the East, which fell off after June (Chart X X X I ) . There were, moreover, during August and September, particularly the latter month, substantial transfers of cash to San Francisco b y the United States subtreasury at New York." This decline in exchange is principally due to the large amount of eastern credits available locally at this time from the shipment of California products, especially green fruits, to eastern points; the returns for such shipments being usually available in either Chicago or New York exchange. As previously observed the California hay and grain harvests cause considerable demand for funds by the middle of July, while the ships returning from the fisheries in August and September require large sums with which to pay their crews. From about the middle of September (thirty-fourth week) to the latter part of October (thirty-ninth week) New York exchange tends to rule at near par. The average rate for the thirty-fourth week was 6.9 cents premium with an average index number of 51.3, while for the thirty-ninth week the average rate was 1.9 cents premium with an average index number of 55.7. Twentytwo of the forty-eight rates occurring in these six weeks (for the eight years 1901-1908) were between 20 cents premium and 20 cents discount (inclusive). During these weeks the outward movements of grain, green fruit, and fish tend to force exchange down, while the fact that this is the quarter of large receipts of gold (p. 118) from Alaska, making it a period of large receipts of gold bullion at the Mint, and t h a t t h e San Francisco Mint makes returns for this gold in gold coin or New York exchange, at the option of the owner of the bullion, tends to keep New York exchange at par. a Of. Chart XXXV and pp. 131-132. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. The demand for money in San Francisco relative to New York City increases rapidly from the latter part of October to about the 1st of December when it reaches its highest point in the year. From the thirty-ninth week to the forty-fourth week the average rate of exchange fell from 1.9 cents premium to 46.4 cents discount, the average index number of rates falling at the same time from 55.7 to 22.1. I n every one of the eight years the rate was much lower in the forty-fourth week than in the thirty-ninth. Six of the eight rates for the thirty-ninth week were much higher than the maximum rate for the forty-fourth week, which was 25 cents discount. Shipments of cash from San Francisco to the Eastern States were very small in October, November, and December (Chart X X X I ) . On the other hand, there were receipts from the Eastern States in October and November in only one year (1907) of the three, and in December in two years (1906 and 1907). November and December are the months of largest transfers of cash to San Francisco by the United States subtreasury in New York. a The fall in exchange during this period appears to be due primarily to the outward movement of dried fruits, such as raisins, prunes, and apricots. The banks pay out large amounts of actual coin which goes to the country, and receive in return drafts on eastern points which build up their eastern balances. This also represents the most active part of the northern grain season. The low point of the year for exchange is about the last week in November when the tax collector for the city and county of San Francisco withdraws large sums of actual coin from circulation and locks much of it up in the vaults of the city hall. 5 December is a month in which the relative demand for money in San Francisco lightens considerably as the result of the rapid falling off of the crop-moving demand. The average rate of exchange rose for the seven years (excluding the very abnormal year 1907) c from 46.4 cents discount for the forty-fourth week to 22.9 cents discount for the forty-eigth, and the average index number of rates from 22.1 to 29.8. I n five of the seven years the rate was considerably higher in the forty-eighth week than in the forty-fourth. I n two of the three years (1906-1908) there were receipts from the Eastern States in December. The demand for remittances to the East for January 1st settlements tends to force up exchange rates at the end of the year. CURRENCY SHIPMENTS BETWEEN THE PACIFIC STATES AND THE EASTERN STATES. (Tables IX and 9, and Charts XXX and XXXI.) # Now that we have considered the evidence as to seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in San Francisco afforded by domestic exchange rates, and the reported receipts and shipments of currency by San «Cf. Chart XXXV and pp. 131-132. &Cf. pp. 51-52. cCf. p. 95, note d. 121 Francisco and Oakland from and to the Eastern States, we may consider the evidence afforded by currency movements between the Pacific States and the Eastern States. a The total reported movements of currency during the four years between the Pacific States and the Eastern States, upon which our conclusions must be based, were as follows : 1. Receipts by the Eastern States from the Pacific States amounting to $65,537,000. 2. Shipments by the Pacific States to the Eastern States amounting to $15,291,000. 3. Shipments by the Eastern States to the Pacific States amounting to $23,607,000. 4. Receipts by the Pacific States from the Eastern States amounting to $7,267,000. Obviously the reports of the Eastern States are much more complete than those of the Pacific States, and should be considered of greater weight in case the two sets of figures for any period of the year disagree. The figures taken together seem to show the following seasonal tendencies: January, and to a lesser degree, February are months of comparatively large shipments of cash by the Pacific States to the Eastern States. 6 Of the $65,537,000 reported by the Eastern States as received from the Pacific States during the four years 1905-1908, $17,715,000 were received during January and February, the average index numbers for receipts during these two months, respectively, being 95.8 and 71.5. There were substantial receipts during each of these months in every one of the four years. Shipments to the Eastern States reported by the Pacific States were likewise high in January and February. Out of total reported shipments to the Eastern States from the Pacific States during the three years 1906-1908, inclusive, amounting to $15,291,000, January and February claimed $4,306,000, the average index number for January being 51.4 and for February 49.1. Substantial shipments during these months were fairly regular in their occurrence. The Eastern States reported relatively small shipments to the Pacific States in January and February, while the Pacific States reported no receipts from the Eastern States during these months, except $110,000 in January, 1908.c Beginning with February the movement of cash from the Pacific States to the Eastern States tends to diminish until May. The amounts reported by the Eastern States as received from the Pacific States fell continuously from $7,901,000 in February to $4,410,000 in May, the average index number falling from 71.5 for February to 59.2 for March, 45.2 for April, and 26.5 for May. The Pacific States reported decreasing shipments to the Eastern States in March and April, and a small increase in May. The amount shipped, which was $2,018,000 in February, « Currency movements between the Pacific States and other geographic sections were considered in the discussions of the other sections. b For causes, see p. 49. ^ cCf. p. 72. CHART XXX. SEASONAL .70 Y/J^/AT/ONS in the 7o RELATIVE DEMAND roe MONET tl Average index. Numbers of in GO PACIFIC Receipts from EASTERN STATES. CO STATES R• ffvercge as Evidenced by index Numbers of Receipts from TOTAL ISN/TSD STATES. Recetpts of Cash from other Sections of the Countr /• SO so I wa'-tios. 1 J <^5a» / >\ \\ v3 30 i\ ft 0 [_!__ Wbnfhs 30 t 20 \ \ * \ \ \\ \\ \ \ \ JO P^ I ii \ \\ \ 20 Index 1 1 Index 40 1 (122) /t / / \\ \\ \\ *> \ / / / / 1 10 o *. * J .f 4* M § 4 .. * 4 fifonf/A CHART XXXI. 1 [ [ i n i i SEASONALin VARIATIONS the RELATIVE DEMAND FOK MONEY SO * 80 ,n FACMC STATES, as Fvidenced 10 by 10 Shipmenfs of Cash fo of her Sec fions offhe Counfri/. !W£-/fos. Col GO —^ \ 40 /1 / i // // // \\ \ \ \ \ v I 1 1 ft 1 1 V 30 1A I 1 / \ // 1 1 //II II / \ \ \ ij \ \ / 1 \ 20 //// 7 \ / \ 1 / \ i ft" l \\ 6 \ \\ i \ i I *0 Si ^' ^ ^ "^ g 3J » $ 4 __ ^ I <Sv ^ .!* I i. 30 20 1 i Average Index Numbers of o _l I ^> 1 to 1 ^-4<^ Shipmenfs fo TOTAL UN/TEP STATES fonf^ 4o It ii \ \ Shipmenfs to £ASTERN STATes / \ i Average fndex Numbers of / \ ro i k 1 I I 1 1 I 1 1 SO moers 1 1 1 1\ ft ! X "^ <f « ^ S o \Dec. 30 4 (123) MM ]24 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. declined to $393,000 in April, and then rose to $979,000 in May, the average index number dropping from 49.1 for February to 24.4 for March, and 5.1 for April, and then rising to 18.6 for May. These averages represent fairly the movements for the individual years. There is no evidence of any regular movement of cash from the Eastern States to the Pacific States during these months, although there was a very large movement in April and May of 1906 (the time of the earthquake), which makes the average figures for these months appear moderately high." (Chart X X X . ) The three summer months are months during which there is usually a substantial movement of cash from the Pacific States to the Eastern States, and during which there is practically no movement of cash in the opposite direction. Of reported receipts by the Eastern States from the Pacific States during the four years 1905 to 1908, amounting to $65,537,000, the months of June, July, and August claimed $17,746,000.* Nine of the twelve index numbers for these months were above 25. Considerable shipments to the Eastern States during the summer months were reported by the Pacific States. Of such shipments, amounting to $15,291,000 during the three years 1906-1908, the three summer months claimed $5,721,000. The average index number for these shipments, which was 18.6 for May, was 53.4 for June, 44 for July, and 26.3 for August. A reference to the figures for the individual years substantiates the evidence given by the averages. 6 September appears to be a month in which there is comparatively little movement of cash between the Eastern States and the Pacific States. During the four Septembers the shipments of the Eastern States to the Pacific States amounted to only $246,000, the average index number being 8.5, while the receipts of the Eastern States from the Pacific States amounted to only $3,108,000 (out of a total for all months of $65,537,000), the average index number being 10.1. The Pacific States reported practically no receipts from the Eastern States in September. They reported shipments to the Eastern States amounting to $1,088,000, the average index number being 35.6. We may conclude, therefore, t h a t the evidence points to September as a comparatively inactive month as regards currency shipments between the Eastern States and the Pacific States. For the last three months of the year the evidence appears to be contradictory and not to point to any regular seasonal tendency. The figures reported by the Pacific States for receipts and shipments during these months are too meager to be worth much, but whatever value as evidence they may have points to a westward movement of cash. Reports by the Eastern States for this period show both considerable receipts a For the causes affecting currency movements in March, April, and May, see pp. 49-50, 119-120. & For discussion of causes of currency movements in June, July, and August, see pp. 50-51, and 120. from the Pacific States and considerable shipments to the Pacific States. Considering the receipts from the Pacific States, first, we find the average index number advancing from 10.1 in September to 31.6 in October, and then declining to 14.6 in November, at approximately which figure it remains in December. The four October index numbers were all above 25. The November and December index numbers show wide variations in the different years. For November the four index numbers were 4.5, 38.6, 0, and 15.4; for December they were 22.2, 0, 42.2, and 0. Total reported receipts of the Eastern States from the Pacific States during the four years were $65,537,000, of which sum $4,710,000 occurred in October, $3,453,000 in November, and $3,345,000 in December. Turning to the shipments reported by the Eastern States we find the average index numbers advancing from 8.5 in September to 28 in October, and to 54.7 in November, then declining to 30.1 in December. Here likewise the averages are not representative because the figures for the individual years vary widely. The four October index numbers were 71.4, 0.5, 28.6, and 11.3; the four November ones were 100, 1.8, 100, and 16.8; and the four December ones were 53.6, 10.8, 47.3, and 8.5. Of a total amount of $23,607,000 reported as shipped by the Eastern States to the Pacific States during the four years, October claimed $1,083,000, November $3,606,000, and December $2,687,000. When evidence so meager as t h a t available for this problem is at the same time contradictory it is probably wise to refrain from drawing therefrom any conclusion. CURRENCY RECEIPTS AND SHIPMENTS OF NEW YORY CITY BANKS. (Charts XXXII, XXXIII, XXXIV, and XXXV, and Tables IX, XI, XII, 9, 10, and 11.) New York City has been used in this chapter as the basis for studying seasonal variations in domestic exchange in the four representative cities—Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans, and San Francisco—and the Eastern States have been given a prominent place in studying currency shipments and receipts, the currency movements from and to the Eastern States having been considered first, in studying each group of States, and afterwards the movements between the particular group and the other groups. I n studying the currency movements between each group of States and the Eastern States we have obviously covered the shipments and receipts of the Eastern States to and from each group. Inasmuch as by far the larger part of the cur-^ rency movements to and from the Eastern States are to and from New York City, a it would be largely repea Of total receipts reported by the Eastern States for the four years amounting to $848,523,000, the sum of $649,671,000, or 77 per cent, was reported by New York City; and of total shipments reported by the Eastern States for the four years amounting to $858,908,000, the sum of $722,901,000, or 84 per cent, was reported by New York City. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. tition to discuss separately the currency shipments and receipts of New York City to and from each of the different groups of States. For convenience, however, these movements for New York City have been separately tabulated (Tables I X , pp. 76-79, and Table 9, pp. 288-298), and average figures for the four-year period are shown in Charts X X X I I and X X X I I I . The seasonal movements of cash out of New York City to all sections of the country taken together and into New York City, from all sections may, however, be worth considering separately. Upon this subject we have (1) the evidence afforded by the figures for currency receipts and shipments during the four years 1905-1908 reported by the New York City clearing-house banks to the Monetary Commission, and (2) the evidence afforded by the weekly figures of the New York City clearing-house banks for the net interior movement of cash into and out of the banks of the city during the ten years 1899-1908 (Chart XXXIV.) These latter figures, covering as they do a much longer period of years and being upon a weekly instead of a monthly basis, are the more satisfactory evidence. Taking the two sets of figures and paying particular attention to the latter, we observe the following seasonal tendencies for cash movements between New York City and " t h e interior" of the country. T A B L E XI.—Seasonal variations in the demand for money in New York City relative to the demand in the interior, as evidenced by the net interior movement of cash into and out of the banks of the City. Average figures for the ten years, 1899-1908 a 1899-1908 Month and week. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.—5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 . . . . . 1899-1908 Average Average Average out of into index banks. number. banks. $6,684 6,621 7,773 6,895 4,749 2,576 1,436 1,157 1,679 604 716 1,535 999 Month and week. 87.2 1 Apr.—14 84.9 15.... 90.7 16 . . . . 17 . . . . 87.6 j May—18 77.0 19 63.7 20 . . . . 53.8 21 52.3 June—22 58.5 23 . . . . 50.5 | 24 . . . . 49.8 54.4 25 . . . . 53.5 July—26 . . . . Average Average Average into out of index banks. banks. number. $868 1,903 2,085 1,379 594 2,952 4,306 4,229 3,862 3,529 3,354 3,597 2,158 53.9 59.0 62.1 61.6 56.5 65.0 74.5 74.7 60.9 68.6 66.7 68.5 58.3 a Figures by weeks for the individual years are given in Table 10 of the Appendix (pp. 358-360). 125 TABLE XI.—Seasonal variations in the demand for money in New York City, etc.—Continued. 1899-1908 1899-1908 Month and week. J u l y —27 . . . . 28 29 . . . . 30 . . . . Aug.—31..., 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Month and week. Average Average Average out of index into banks. number. banks. $1,441 3,456 3,692 4,735 2,955 1,395 2,517 $249 1,477 2,620 2,589 3,434 3,489 53.1 68.0 69.3 73.1 63.4 57.3 49.4 45.5 35.7 29.9 30.2 24.8 27.0 Average Average Average index out of into banks. number. banks. Oct. —40 41 42 | 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec# _48 1 49.... 50.... 51.... 52.... $3,883 2,543 3,014 3,685 2,700 2,666 1,530 563 213 836 $515 60 2,188 32.0 32.8 30.3 29.6 34.7 37.1 43.6 48.6 49.0 44.2 52.4 47.6 61.7 During the first four weeks of the year there is a strong movement of cash toward New York City. There was an average net movement of cash into the banks of New York City of $6,684,000 in the first week and of $6,895,000 in the fourth week. The average index number for the first four weeks (ten years 1899-1908) varied between 84.9 for the second week and 90.7 for the third week. Net receipts during these weeks were large in every one of the ten years. Of total receipts reported by the New York City banks to the Monetary Commission during the four years 1905-1908, amounting to $649,671,000, January claimed $114,354,000. January had the largest receipts of any month in every one of the four years. Shipments reported for January were comparatively small, the index number for total shipments being 7.5 for January as compared with 100 for total receipts. 0 Receipts fall off rapidly from the last of January (fourth week) to about the middle of February (seventh week) and continue low until the forepart of April. The average net receipts of New York City banks dropped from $6,895,000 in the fourth week to $1,157,000 in the eighth week, and the average index number dropped from 87.6 to 52.3. In forty-three of the fifty weeks occurring during the ten years (1899-1908) between the fourth and eighth weeks, inclusive, the net movement was into New York City banks, and in only seven was it out of them. The index number was lower every a For explanations see p . 28. CHART XXXII. (126) CHART XXXIII. /j Average Index.Numbers of SEASONAL VARIATIONS In Ihe Shipments to NEW ENGLAND STATES, RELATIVE B ——— Average- Index Numbers of Shipments to EASTERN -C Hverage Index Numbers MONEY fo STATES of Shipments Jo SOUTHERN D+++++ Average fncfex Numbers DEMAND FOR New YORK CITY as Evidenced bu STATES^ of Shipments of Cash to other Sections of the Countrq^ fiOS-tfOS. Shipments to MIDDLE WSSTERN STATES, E Average Index Numbers Shipments of fo forAL UNITED STATES (127) CHART XXXIV. -fiverage Amounts deceived and Shipped *0 -Bverage Index Numbers of /Imounts deceived and Shipped so 10 CO so 40 Seasonal Variations in the Relative Demand for Monet/ in New fork 30 as Evidenced Citq bt[ The Net Interior Movement of Cash into and oaf of The Banks of the Cift/ l8n~IW8. 20 /O We£s\ Wbafhk January \fcbruarL{\ (128) March 1 fiprif \ to Ma a ?£ 1 June I JO 3S 4o July \ Auqusf \ScptCmb&\ October 4S SO Weeti \Movember \Dcccmbcf Jan. tybnfhdj SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. year in the eighth week than in the fourth. From the eighth week to the fourteenth week the movement toward New York City is moderate. The average net receipts in the eighth and fourteenth weeks, respectively, were $1,157,000 and $868,000, and the average index numbers were 52.3 and 53.9. I n five years the index number for the fourteenth week was higher than for the eighth, and in five years it was lower. The figures for total receipts by New York banks during the four years reported to the Monetary Commission were considerably less for February and March combined than for January, and the index number which was 100 for January was 28.2 for February and 30.3 for March. Receipts for these months were moderate during each of the four years. March, on the other hand, was a month in which there were usually appreciable shipments from New York City, more especially to New England, a the average index number for March shipments being 22.4 and the amount (for the four years) being $47,097,000.6 The period extending from about the middle of April until about the 1st of June is one characterized by an increasing movement of cash toward New York City, the twentieth and twenty-first weeks being, next to the month of January, the period of strongest movement of cash from the interior into New York City banks during the year. The average net receipts rose from $868,000 in the fourteenth week to $4,229,000 in the twenty-first week, the average index number rising from 53.9 to 74.7. I n nine of the ten years the index number for the twentyfirst week was higher than for the fourteenth, and in the remaining year it was only slightly lower. Only fifteen of the eighty weeks occurring between the fourteenth and the twenty-first weeks, inclusive, of the ten years, showed a net movement of cash out of New York City banks, and of those fifteen weeks seven were in the year 1906. c The figures collected by the Monetary Commission for the four years 1905-1908 show receipts and shipments in April to almost exactly balance each other, and the receipts in May to greatly exceed the shipments, thus corroborating the testimony of the figures for " t h e net interior movement of cash." d From the 1st of June to the fore part of July the movement of cash from the interior to the New York City banks declines. The average net receipts fell from $4,229,000 in the twenty-first week to $1,441,000 in the twenty-seventh, the average index number falling at the same time from 74.7 to 53.1. Eight of the ten index numbers were lower in the twenty-seventh week than in the twenty-first, and six index numbers in the twentyseventh week were lower than 57.2, the minimum index & See p. 79. c This heavy outward movement in 1906 was due to the large shipments to the Pacific coast necessitated by the San Francisco earthquake disaster. Cf. p. 78. d For explanations see pp. 28-29. number for the twenty-first week. The figures collected for the Monetary Commission show June to be a month of much larger receipts of cash than shipments. (Table I X , pp. 77-79.) The first three weeks of July (twenty-eighth, twentyninth, and thirtieth weeks) represent the third highest period of the year for net receipts of cash from the interior. For these three weeks, respectively, the average net receipts were $3,456,000, $3,692,000, and $4,735,000, the average index numbers being 68, 69.3, and 73.1. Every one of the ten years showed a net movement into New York City banks for each of these weeks. The figures collected by the Monetary Commission show that for the four years 1905-1908 receipts of cash from the interior by New York City banks greatly exceeded shipments at this time.® Beginning about the 1st of August net receipts rapidly fall off, and before the end of the month the net movement is out of the New York City banks. The outward movement reaches its maximum the latter part of September (thirty-eighth week) but shows little evidence of diminishing until early in November. Whereas the thirtieth week showed an average net movement into New York City banks of $4,735,000, with an average index number of 73.1, the thirty-eighth week showed an average net movement out of these banks of $3,434,000, with an average index number of 24.8. I n every one of the ten years the net interior movement was into the New York City banks in the thirtieth week and out of them in the thirty-eighth week. In eighty-one of the ninety weeks occurring from the thirty-sixth to the forty-fourth week, inclusive, during the ten years, the net interior movement was out of New York City banks. The Monetary Commission's figures strongly substantiate this testimony. This outward movement of cash, due to crop-moving demands, rapidly diminishes after the 1st of November and by the last week in the year becomes transformed into a strong inward movement. The average interior movement in the forty-fourth week was $2,700,000 out of New York City banks, while that of the fifty-second week was $2,188,000 into these banks. From the fortyfourth week to the fifty-second the average index number rose from 34.7 to 61.7, there having been an advance from the forty-fourth to the fifty-second week in every one of the ten years except one (1901), in which year the index numbers for the two weeks were the same. The Monetary Commission's figures show a considerable return movement of cash from the interior in December. TRANSFERS OF CASH BY THE UNITED STATES SUBTREASURY IN NEW YORK CITY TO OTHER CITIES OF THE COUNTRY. (Chart XXXV and Tables XII and 12.) flCf. p . 92. 16065°—11 129 9 I n accordance with the familiar system of currency transfers maintained by the United States Treasury «Cf. pp. 77-79. CHART XXXV. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. Department, New York banks can transfer currency to subtreasury points by telegraphic transfers. The subtreasury charges are the same as the express charges to the same points.® Monthly figures covering such subtreasury transfers for the period 1899-1909 have been 131 compiled for this report by the Director of the Mint and are given in Tables XII and 12. The evidence concerning seasonal variations in these transfers of cash from New York City to other cities may be summarized as follows: TABLE XII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in certain cities as evidenced by transfers of cash to them from New York City by the Treasury of the United States—Average « figures for 1899-1909. & [Amounts expressed in thousands of dollars.] Payments made by the subtreasury offices located in— Deposits in subYork. St. Louis. Chicago. Month. New Orleans. Washington. Baltimore, c Cincinnati, c San Francisco.** Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average index index index index index index index index amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. ifi June July August September. October November. December.. 447.1 598.7 489.1 630.1 1,143.6 1,085.7 718.2 2,135.5 4,207-4 4,202 6,648.4 5,786.8 6.7 7.3 6.2 7.5 15.8 17.1 9.3 32.5 68.3 59.9 65.7 70.9 2.7 254.5 154.5 145.5 190.9 1,009.1 627.3 954.5 1,792.7 1,087.8 9.1 10.5 7.3 12.6 0.0 0.0 8.5 36.6 28.2 48.1 36.2 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 28.4 31.8 19.4 16.0 36.4 290.9 586.4 403.6 250.1 248.2 297.4 113.6 130 286.8 310.8 318.2 435.5 2,112.8 1,872.5 1,963 2,674 7.5 7.8 2.9 3.7 8.5 10.5 9.6 13.9 69.7 53.0 64.6 74.2 3.5 79.5 27.3 90.9 50 13.6 22.7 9.1 95.5 18.2 2.5 0.6 0.0 19.3 9.1 21.8 18.2 4.1 4.1 4.5 30.8 6.1 1.2 0.6 45 14.4 58.3 11.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.2 34.2 0.0 0.0 38.9 117.2 38.9 22.2 44.4 52.2 29.2 42.1 9.7 0.0 39.7 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 14.2 19.9 11.1 27.7 294.1 833.3 541.9 1,404.2 1,329 358.3 1,125 2,051.7 1,004.8 3,672.4 3,004.6 78 0.0 1.3 9.8 25.3 31.3 4.1 21.9 43.4 17.5 66.8 63.9 a Figures for the individual years are given in Table 11 of the Appendix (pp. 361-363). & The transfers during the panic period of 1907 were quite exceptional in amount, and rather unduly influence the average figures for the 11-year period. If the year 1907 were eliminated the average figures for the other 10 years would be as follows: [Amounts expressed in thousands of dollars.] Payments made by the subtreasury offices located in— Deposits in subYork. Chicago. Month. New Orleans. St. Louis. Washington. Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average index index index index amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. January . . . February.. March April May June July August September. October November. December.. 421.8 628.6 488 628.1 890.5 1,075.4 640 2,096.5 4,450.6 4,183.3 3,794 4,638.5 7.3 8.0 6.8 8.1 16.4 18.6 9.9 35.1 74.7 64.7 62.3 73.2 3.0 280 170 160 210 1,000 690 1,050 540 360 c These averages cover only 9 years. 10.0 11.6 8.0 13.9 0.0 0.0 9.4 39.4 31.0 52.9 29.8 11.7 40.0 275 585 115 25 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 29.8 33.2 11.4 10.0 253.0 297.1 105 128 315.5 341.9 330 436.5 2,191.6 2,012.3 2,046.5 2,790 d These averages cover only 6 years. SUBTREASURY TRANSFERS FROM NEW YORK CITY TO CHICAGO. During the eleven years 1899 to 1909, inclusive, the transfers of currency to Chicago against deposits in the subtreasury at New York amounted to $68,415,932, making the average annual transfer $6,219,630. The great bulk of the transfers were made in the four months August, September, October, and November; October being clearly the month of largest transfers. Moderate «Cf. Pratt, The Work of Wall Street, p. 221. 6.9 6.6 1.9 3.1 9.4 11.6 9.2 12.5 68.0 55.2 63.7 71.6 Baltimore.^ Cincinnati, e San Francisco./ Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average index index index index amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. amount. number. 3.9 57.5 30 100 55 15 25 10 85 2.5 7.0 0.0 11.3 10.0 24.0 20.0 4.5 4.6 5.0 27.2 0.0 1.3 0.6 50.6 16.3 53.1 e These averages cover only 8 years. 12.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 26.0 0.0 0.0 43.8 131.9 43.8 25 50 58.8 31.3 10.9 0.0 44.6 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 16.0 22.4 0.0 25.0 252.9 1,000 550.2 950 1,357 170 1,150 2,462 603 2,075 3,002 8 5 0.0 1.6 10.6 24.0 35.5 2.7 24.5 52.0 15.8 60.0 71.4 / These averages cover only 5 years. transfers occurred in April, while not a cent was transferred in May and June. An analysis of the index numbers for the individual years shows that of the seventyseven monthly index numbers, for the seven months January to July, inclusive, of the eleven years, only two were above 67, while seventy-two were below 34, of which sixty-six were below 15, including sixty-two 0. Each of the sixty-two 0 represented a month in which there were no transfers from New York to Chicago. The total transfers from January to July, inclusive, of the 132 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. eleven years amounted to but $8,230,000, out of a total for all months of $68,415,932. On the other hand, of the forty-four monthly index numbers for the four months August, September, October, and November, twelve were above 67, of which ten w^ere 100, and twenty-six were below 34, of which twenty-two were below 15, including eighteen 0. Each of the eighteen 0 represented a month in which there were no transfers. During these four months of the eleven years the total transfers amounted to $48,220,032. Of the eleven December index numbers, the maximum was 58.4, eight were below 34, all of which were below 15, and five of which were 0 representing months in which no transfers were made. December transfers during the eleven years amounted to $11,965,900. S U B T R E A S U R Y T R A N S F E R S F R O M N E W Y O R K CITY TO S T . L O U I S . Subtreasury transfers to St. Louis against deposits in New York City amounted to $17,240,700 during the eleven years 1899-1909, giving an average annual transfer of $1,567,336. A reference to the tables (XII and 12) and the chart (XXXV) will show that there were no St. Louis transfers during the first seven months of the year in any of the eleven years, and t h a t in only one year (i. e., 1906) were there any transfers in August. I n five years there were transfers in September, in five years in October, in four years in November, and in two years in December. September had three index numbers above 67, of which one was 100; October had three above 67, of which two were 100; November had two above 67, of which both were 100; and December had two above 67, of which one was 100. S U B T R E A S U R Y T R A N S F E R S F R O M N E W Y O R K CITY TO N E W ORLEANS. The sum of $118,390,500 was transferred to New Orleans by the subtreasury during the eleven years 18991909 against deposits at the subtreasury in New York City, giving an average annual transfer of $10,762,773. A reference to the tables and chart will show that transfers to New Orleans are small during the first eight months of the year. The total amount transferred during the months January to August, inclusive, amounted to but $23,545,000, as compared with $94,845,500 for the four months September to December, inclusive. Of the eighty-eight monthly index numbers for the former period the maximum was 55.9, eighty-four were below 34, of which seventy-two were below 15, including forty 0. On the other hand, of the forty-four index numbers during the September-December period, twenty-two were above 67, of which eighteen were above 85, including eleven 100. During this period only ten index numbers were below 34, of which two were below 15, neither being a zero. September had six index numbers above 67, of which two were 100; October had four above 67, none of which was 100; November had five above 67, two of which were 100; and December had seven above 67, all of which were 100. For New Orleans, therefore, the evidence points to December as the month of largest Treasury transfers and to September as the month of second largest. S U B T R E A S U R Y T R A N S F E R S F R O M N E W Y O R K CITY TO SAN F R A N C I S C O . There were no transfers to San Francisco against deposits at the subtreasury in New York City during the five years 1899-1903. For the six years 1904-1909 the transfers amounted to $89,216,297, thereby averaging $14,869,383 a year. Transfers during the first four months of the year were negligible, amounting to only $5,515,811 for the six years, the average index number for the first four months of the year, respectively, being 7.8, 0.0, 1.3, and 9.6. Of the twenty-four monthly index numbers for this period (January-April) the maximum was 27.7, twenty were below 15, of which fifteen were 0. Each of the zero index numbers represented a month in which there were no transfers. During the months of May and June there were moderate transfers to San Francisco. For these two months (1904-1909) the total transfers amounted to $16,399,360, as compared with $5,515,811 for the four preceding months. The average index number rose from 9.6 for April to 25.3 for May and to 31.3 for June. I n four of the six years there were transfers to San Francisco in May, and in five of them there were transfers in June. Four index numbers for the May-June period (1904-1909) were above 34, of which one was 100, while of the eight below 34, seven were below 15, of which three were 0. Transfers to San Francisco in July were very small, taking place in only two of the six years. July transfers to San Francisco for the six years amounted to b u t $2,150,000, the average index number being 4.1. I n August and September transfers to San Francisco increased. The total amount transferred (1904-1909) rose from $2,150,000 in July to $6,750,000 for August and $12,310,000 for September. While there were transfers in July in only two years, there were transfers in August in three years and in September in four years. The August-September period had five index numbers above 34, of which three were above 67 and one was 100. The month of October showed a decline in transfers to San Francisco. While September transfers amounted to $12,310,000 during the six years, with an average index number of 43.4, October transfers amounted to b u t $6,029,000, with an average index number of 17.5. I n four of the six years there were transfers in September, while in only three were there transfers in October, in one of which (i. e., 1906) the amount was insignificant. The last two months of the year were months of large transfers to San Francisco, November being the month SEASONAL DEMAND FO of maximum transfers. During the six years November transfers amounted to $22,034,633 and December transfers to $18,027,593, the average index number rose from 17.5 for October to 66.8 for November, and then declined to 63.9 for December. Of the twelve monthly index numbers for November and December, eight were above 50, of which five were 100. S U B T R E A S U R Y T R A N S F E R S F R O M N E W Y O R K CITY TO O T H E R C I T I E S . Deposits at the New York subtreasury for transfer to other cities were comparatively small during the first seven months of the year, after which they rose rapidly, tending to be large in September, October, November, and December. During the eleven years 1899-1909 the total amount so deposited was $309,008,721, and of this amount $229,290,050, or 74.2 per cent, was deposited during the last four months of the year. May and June showed slightly larger deposits than the preceding months of July. Of the seventy-seven monthly index numbers for the January-July period (1899-1909), only one was above 67, while seventy were below 34, of which sixty-two were below 15, including twenty-two 0. On the other hand, of the fifty-five index numbers for the AugustDecember period, only thirteen were below 34, of which eight were below 15, none of which were 0; while twentysix were above 67, of which fifteen were above 85, including eleven 100. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR VARIOUS KINDS AND DENOMINATIONS OF MONEY. (Tables XIII (a) and XIII (6).) I n order to obtain information with reference to the extent to which there is in different sections of the country, an insufficiency of money of certain denominations to meet the needs of trade in some seasons of the year, the following questions were asked of the clearing-house associations of the cities a to which the Commission's a Cf. pp. 53-54. MONEY AND CAPITAL. 133 letter of inquiry concerning currency shipments and receipts were sent: a I. Please estimate so far as possible, for the months of greatest movement, the kinds and denominations of money received. I I . Is there a special demand for small bills in your section at certain seasons; and if so, when ? I I I . Have you been able to supply such demand without difficulty ? IV. Please estimate so far as possible, for the months of greatest movement, the kinds and denominations of money shipped. V. Is there a general demand for small bills from certain sections of the country; and if so, where and t o what extent ? VI. Have you been able to supply such demand without difficulty ? A comparatively few replies were received from these inquiries, and all that could be used are summarized on the following page. They cover replies from 14 clearinghouse associations and from 8 individual banks, together representing 16 cities. When it is recalled that there were at that time in the United States 91 cities with an estimated population of over 50,000 (to all of which inquiries were sent) and that only 13 out of 49 States and Territories are represented in the replies, it will be seen that the basis for generalization is not broad. However, the nature of the phenomenon is such that the majority of the banks in a given section of the country would be liable to have similar experiences, and reports from a few large banks and clearing-house associations are not without value, especially if those in a given section of the country substantially agree, as is the case in the present inquiry. a Questions I, II, and III were asked on the forms requesting tne currency receipts of banks from banks outside their respective States; and questions IV, V, and VI were asked on the forms requesting the currency shipments of banks to places outside their respective States. Cf. p. 53. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 134 TABLE X I I I (a).—Seasonal receipts and local demand for various hinds and denominations of money—Answers banks to certain questions. Section, State, and city. New England: MassachusettsBoston Worcester... Rhode I s l a n d Providence. Eastern States: New York S t a t e Syracuse Southern States: GeorgiaAtlanta.. KentuckyLexington.. Tennessee— Memphis... Mid-Western States: IllinoisChicago Indiana— Evansville. MichiganGrand Rapids.. MinnesotaMinneapolis. . . . St. P a u l Wisconsin— Milwaukee. Institution replying. Question I.—Kinds and denominations of money received in months of greatest receipts. Clearinghouse Fives and tens, January, March, and April. In fall and sometimes in January and April. Able to supply demand, except for ones and twos. Tens and twenties, August and September. Demand constant on account of pay rolls.. Able to supply all demands. Clearinghouse Question II.—Seasonal demand for small bills. Question III.—Ability of banks to meet demand for small bills. Clearing house . . . Ones, twos, and fives, September, Octo- No great demand ber, and November. Able t o supply all demands. Clearing house At all seasons. Able to supply all demands. Clearinghouse..., Ones and twos, fives, tens, and twenties, September, October, and November. In fall, September, October, and November, for moving crops. Not able to supply demands. Clearinghouse No great demand.. Able to supply demand. Circulation exclusively, January, February, and March. Clearinghouse Fives and tens. General demand in cotton months—October, November, and December. Able to supply all demands. Two banks- Fives, tens, and twenties, August, September, and October. In fall, for shipping. Able to supply demands. Clearing house... Fives, tens, and twenties, January, February, and March. In June and July- Able to supply demands. Large demand Not able to supply demands. Fives, tens, and twenties, September, October, and November. Fives, tens, and twenties, September, October, and November. September, October, and November- Greatest difficulty in supplying fives. September, October, and November. . Usually able to supply all demands. Clearinghouse... Fives, tens, and twenties, September, October, and November. In fall months., Not able to supply enough fives, tens, and twenties in fall. One bank. One bank. Mostly gold Currency and silver. Clearinghouse Clearing house... Clearinghouse... Western States.. Pacific States: CaliforniaSan Francisco.. by clearing-house associations and No demand. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 135 TABLE XIII (6).—Seasonal shipments of money and demand for shipment for various hinds and denominations of money—Answers by clearing-house associations and bankers to certain questions. Section, State, and city. New England: MassachusettsBoston Institution replying. Question IV.—Kinds and denominations of money shipped in months of greatest shipment. Question V.—Seasonal demand for small bills from certain sections of the country. Question VI.—Ability of banks to supply demand for small bills. Clearing house Ones, twos, fives, and tens in September, October, and November. Demand from New England and Middle West. Not always able to supply demand, especially for ones and twos. • Worcester Rhode Island: Providence Clearing house Clearinghouse Ones, twos, and fives..,.....*.......,... . Shipments due to surplus and not to outside demands. Eastern States: New York S t a t e Syracuse Southern States: GeorgiaAtlanta Clearinghouse Mutilated of all denominations A local demand Able to supply demand. Clearinghouse Ones and twos for change and fives and tens for moving crops. Demand from Georgia and adjacent States in the fall months. Not entirely able to supply fall demand. In spring small bills accumulate and have to be sent to nearest subtreasury. KentuckyLexington Clearinghouse About half the money shipped is coin, General demand, especially from Mississippi and Arkansas, for marketing cotton crop, October, November, and December. Able to supply all demands. TennesseeMemphis mostly gold. Clearinghouse Fives and tens in October, November, and December (cotton months). VirginiaNorfolk Clearinghouse Ones, twos, fives, and tens; fall and winter. Able to supply all demands. ("One bank Large bills to Missouri, October, November, and December. Fives, tens, and twenties Demand from Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota. General demand from Middle Western States. Fives and tens, September and October... Demand from Middle Western States Able to supply demand. Middle Western States: Illinois- Chicago •{One bank [One bank Considerable difficulty in supplying demand in spring and fall. Able to supply demand. Indiana— E vansville Clearinghouse Fives, tens, and twenties, January, April, and May. General demand Able to supply demand. Minnesota— Minneapolis Clearing house Clearinghouse A large demand in September, October, and November. Demand from Dakotas and Montana; former in September, October, and November; latter in June, July, and August. Not able to supply demand for fives. St. Paul Fives, tens, and twenties, September, October, and November. Fives, tens, and twenties, September, October, and November. Clearing house Fives, tens, and twenties No demand Clearinghouse Fives, tens, and twenties, September, October, and November. For moving crops $20 gold pieces $20 gold pieces Mostly gold No demand Hardly any demand Ohio— Youngstown Wisconsin— Milwaukee Usually able to meet demand. Able to get enough from Chicago. Western States Pacific States: California- San Francisco fOne bank One bank <One bank One bank [One bank Gold, currency, and silver Demand from mining districts No demand Able to supply demand. 136 NATIONAL MONKrARY COMMISSION. CHAPTER V.—SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR M O N E Y AS EVIDENCED BY F O R E I G N EXCHANGE R A T E S . Up to this point money market conditions have been studied in certain representative cities, and in the different geographic sections of the country, and the relations of these places to each other have been considered; almost no references, however, have been made to the relations of the American money market to the money markets of other countries. The United States has been treated, in other words, as if it were an isolated and financially independent community, whereas as a matter of fact it is merely part of a great world's market which recognizes only very vaguely national boundary lines, and in which the different countries are continually influencing, and being influenced by, each other. This interdependence increases as the credit mechanism becomes more highly perfected. '' All countries," said the French economist, M. de Laveleye, about a half a century ago, " which carry on gigantic transactions with small reserves of gold and silver, and which have a vast movement of importations and exportations, must be exposed to these economical perturbations * * *. The more a country expels the precious metals from the channels of circulation, and replaces them by instruments of credit, bank notes, cheques, warrants, deposits, clearing-houses, etc., and the more at the same time it develops its relations with foreign countries, the more it will be exposed to the periodical return of financial perturbations, because more easily an unfavorable balance of trade and payments will disturb all the mechanism of exchanges, and will require from the managers of credit institutions redoubled circumspection, prudence, and ability." ° Foreign-exchange rates and gold imports and exports may be interpreted in the same way as domestic exchange rates and internal currency movements. 6 Rates (when expressed in the terms of the money of the home country) rise when money at home becomes cheap as compared with money abroad, and fall when it becomes dear. When money is relatively redundant at home, exchange rates advance toward the gold-export point, at which point it becomes profitable to export gold to markets where it is relatively scarce, and vice versa. Exchange rates express the value of money or demand (relative to supply) in one country as compared with t h a t in another. Exchange is therefore a relative matter, not an absolute one; telegraphic rates, for example, might remain unchanged although the money markets in both countries compared should become greatly strained, provided the pressure in both countries was simultaneous and of equal intensity. I n view of this fact exchange rates vary in response to changes in money-market conditions in both countries, and an adequate explanation of the normal seasonal variations in exchange rates between two coun° Quoted by W. Stanley Jevons in Investigations in Currency and Finance, London, 1884, p. 166. bCf.p. 53. tries involves a thorough study of money-market conditions in both. The limited time available for the preparation of this report, as previously explained, will prevent any adequate explanation of causes; and attention will be given primarily to the attempt to discover what actually are the normal seasonal tendencies. Three exchanges have been selected for study—London, Paris, and Berlin—and these will be taken up in their order. STERLING E X C H A N G E I N N E W YORK CITY.O (Charts XXXVI, XXXVII, XLII, and XLIII; and Tables XIV, 13, 17, and 18.)6 London is in an important sense the world's moneymarket center; and inasmuch as sterling exchange dominates 0 to a very large degree the other exchanges, it will be considered first and in some detail. The subject of seasonal fluctuations in the demand for money and capital is one which has received much study in England for upward of a half a century and is one concerning which considerable literature has grown up. Three of the most valuable sources of information are: (1) W. Stanley Jevons's essay " O n the frequent autumnal pressure in the money market, and the action of the Bank of England (1866) fd (2) R. H. Inglis Palgrave—Bank Rate and the Money Market (London, 1903), especially chapters 11 to 20; and (3) G. Clare—A Money Market Primer, second edition (London, 1902), especially chapters 8 to 11, inclusive, and charts between pages 140 and 141. I n the interpretation of the exchange figures it should be borne in mind t h a t in the United States exports are ordinarily paid for by dealers in foreign exchange at the time of shipment of goods, whereas bills for imports are ordinarily settled sixty or ninety days or longer after shipments are made. a For suggestions concerning seasonal variations in the sterlingexchange market the writer is indebted to Mr. Fred I. Kent, vicepresident of the Bankers' Trust Company of New York; Mr. John E. Gardin, vice-president of the National City Bank of New York; and Mr. Charles R. Scott, of the International Banking Corporation, New York. & For explanation of figures see pp. 374, note «, 378, note «, and 13-15. •» cMr. John E. Gardin, vice-president of the National City Bank of New York city, writes (December 27, 1909): " * * * As a general proposition, the rates of exchange on Germany, France and other countries keep pace with the sterling rate, which, as far as our market here is concerned, is what we would call the pivotal rate. The rates of exchange on continental centers are absolutely subservient to the Sterling rate in New York, as a general proposition, and continental rates rise and fall, not correlatively, but in accordance with the rise and fall of Sterling exchange in the respective center. * * * There are times, though, when Paris becomes the pivotal point and the Sterling rate then is the variable feature and takes its place alongside of the other continental rates. This condition of affairs occurs when the rate of exchange on Paris has fallen to such a point that gold can be exported, either along natural lines or with the assistance of the Bank of France. When the Bank of France is paying a price for the gold which will bring the check rate down to 5.16, the Paris rate then becomes an absolute fixture as long as this condition prevails." <* Chapter 5 in Investigations in Currency and Finance (London, 1884). SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 137 TABLE XIV.—Sejsonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced by average weekly exchange rates in New York City on certain foreign cities.a London. 1890-1899. Average i n d e x number. Month. Average rate. Jan.— 1 . 2 . 3 . 4. Feb.— 5 . 6 . 7 . 8. Mar.— 9 . 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 June— 22 23 24 25 July— 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 N o v . —44 45 46 47 Dec.— 48 49 50 51 52 1900-1908. $4.8635 4.8690 4.8707 4.8722 4.8718 4.8720 4.8758 4.8738 4.8733 4.8720 4.8728 4.8752 4.8784 4.8783 4.8785 4.8802 4.8807 4.8793 4.8770 4.8779 4.8802 4.8814 4.8800 4.8798 4.8783 4.8760 4.8753 4.8763 4.8770 4.8759 4.8725 4.8710 4.8694 4.8658 4.8638 4.8625 4.8580 4.8563 4.8580 4.8563 4.8558 4.8558 4.8590 4.8590 4.8553 4.8625 4.8668 4.8648 4.8645 4.8670 4.8669 4.8648 Relative Exchange] d e m a n d rate. for money. 40.7 51.5 54.0 56.9 56.6 58.3 64.9 64.1 64.2 64.4 64.1 67.5 71.8 70.8 71.6 76.7 79.5 77.1 71.2 73.8 79.0 81.8 80.1 79.8 78.3 73.5 71.5 72.9 74.4 71.7 64.7 61.6 57.4 50.0 46.5 42.3 33.8 29.5 30.6 26.0 27.4 28.8 38.7 38.9 34.3 43.4 50.0 48.1 49.2 53.9 53.6 50.8 59.3 48.5 46.0 43.1 43.4 41.7 35.1 35.9 35.8 35.6 35.9 32.5 28.2 29.2 28.4 23.3 20.5 22.9 28.8 26.2 "21.0 18.2 19.9 20.2 21.7 26.5 28.5 27.1 25.6 28.3 35.3 38.4 42.6 50.0 53.5 57.7 66.2 70.5 69.4 74.0 72.6 71.2 61.3 61.1 65.7 56.6 50.0 51.9 50.8 46.1 46.4 49.2 1890-1908. $4.8574 4.8619 4.8647 4.8670 4.8670 4.8669 4.8653 4.8652 4.8648 4.8626 4.8595 4.8603 4.8616 4.8632 4.8635 4.8658 4.8683 4.8681 4.8694 4.8694 4.8698 4.8701 4.8709 4.8709 4.8697 4.8678 4.8673 4.8666 4.8659 4.8676 4.8676 4.8675 4.8642 4.8644 4.8607 4.8574 4.8546 4.8540 4.8531 4.8510 4.8521 4.8543 4.8559 4.8541 4.8555 4.8560 4.8573 4.8578 4.8542 4.8531 4.8547 4.8531 Relative Exchange demand rate. for money. 44.9 58.4 65.4 72.2 72.3 72.1 67.0 66.9 67.3 62.3 53.4 55.0 59.2 63.5 64.4 70.2 76.5 75.3 77.5 77.4 79.2 79.8 82.3 82.3 79.9 75.8 74.5 72.3 70.0 74.8 75.1 75.1 65.5 64.6 54.8 37.6 36.7 34.8 33.4 2*8.7 32.2 37.4 44.7 40.6 43.8 44.9 48.9 50.6 41.7 39.3 43.8 38.5 55.1 41.6 34.6 27.8 27.7 27.9 33.0 33.1 32.7 37.7 46.6 45.0 40.8 36.5 35.6 29.8 23.5 24.7 22.5 22.6 20.8 20.2 17.7 17.7 20.1 24.2 25.5 27.7 30.0 25.2 24.9 24.9 34.5 35.4 45.2 62.4 63.3 65.2 66.6 71.3 67.8 62.6 55.3 59.4 56.2 55.1 51.1 49.4 58.3 60.7 56.2 61.5 Berlin. 1899-1908. 1899-1908. Average i n d e x number. Average i n d e x number. Average rate. Paris. Average rate. U. 8606 4.8657 4.8679 4.8697 4.8695 4.8696 4.8708 4.8697 4.8692 4.8676 4.8665 4.8681 4.8704 4.8711 4.8714 4.8734 4.8748 4.8739 4.8734 4.8739 4.8752 4.8760 4.8757 4.8756 4.8742 4.8721 4.8715 4.8717 4.8717 4.8720 4.8702 4.8693 4.8669 4.8651 4.8626 4.8601 4.8564 4.8552 4.8557 4.8538 4.8540 4.8549 4.8576 4.8567 4.8554 4.8594 4.8623 4.8615 4.8596 4.8604 4.8611 4.8592 Relative Exchange! d e m a n d for rate. money. 42.7 54.7 59.4 64.1 64.1 64.8 66.9 65.4 65.7 62.0 59.1 61.6 65.9 67.4 68.2 73.6 78.1 76.3 74.2 75.5 79.1 80.9 81.1 81.0 79.0 74.6 72.9 72.6 72.6 73.2 69.6 68.0 61.3 56.9 50.4 43.7 35.2 32.0 31.9 27.3 29.7 32.9 41.5 39.7 38.8 44.1 49.5 49.3 45.6 47.0 49.0 45.0 57.3 45.3 40.6 35.9 35.9 35.2 33.1 34.6 34.3 38.0 40.9 38.4 34.1 32.6 31.8 26.4 21.9 23.7 25.8 24.5 20.9 19.1 18.9 19.0 21.0 25.4 27.1 27.4 27.4 26.8 30.4 32.0 38.7 43.1 49.6 56.3 64.8 68.0 68.1 72.7 70.3 67.1 58.5 60.3 61.2 55.9 50.5 50.7 54.4 53.0 51.0 55.0 Average index number. Average rate. 5.1817 5.1771 5.1727 5.1733 5.1724 5.1755 5.1786 .1798 .1801 .1823 .1837 .1821 . 1789 5.1776 5.1756 5.1709 5.1683 5.1675 5.1688 5.1679 5.1662 5.1673 5.1683 5.1669 5.1679 5.1685 5.1683 5.1697 5.1718 5.1716 5.1729 5.1755 5.1786 5.1788 5.1808 5.1840 5.1875 5.1890 5.1908 5.1901 5.1863 5.1804 5.1808 5.1813 5.1837 5.1842 5.1824 5.1826 5.1843 5.1848 5.1831 5.1852 Average index number. Average rate. 48.2 39.9 28.2 33.6 27.7 35.1 41.1 44.5 44.5 48.2 50.7 46.7 39.5 35.6 32.2 23.3 18.2 17.6 20.7 19.7 16.5 19.8 22.4 19.3 21.0 21.4 20.3 22.1 26.7 26.2 29.9 34.5 42.8 43.6 47.2 54.3 61.9 65.1 68.5 66.7 59.1 46.8 45.2 44.5 49.7 50.9 45.7 46.8 49.8 49.9 46.6 49.9 0.9495 .9500 .9502 .9503 .9499 .9497 .9497 .9497 .9494 .9493 .9494 .9497 .9500 .9502 .9501 .9508 .9515 .9513 .9514 .9514 .9522 .9523 .9526 .9530 .9531 .9526 .9528 .9525 .9520 .9519 .9514 .9510 .9508 .9510 .9505 .9483 .9500 .9498 .9495 .9490 .9495 .9501 .9498 .9487 .9486 .9490 .9496 .9495 .9491 .9495 .9494 .9488 a D e t a i l e d figures b y w e e k s for t h e i n d i v i d u a l y e a r s a r e g i v e n i n T a b l e s 13 a n d 14 of t h e A p p e n d i x ( p p . 374-380). Exchange] rate. 50.5 55.5 58.5 59.3 56.7 53.4 54.8 55.7 52.4 51.7 53.2 58.8 63.4 65.5 62.6 68.4 76.0 73.3 71.5 70.5 79.4 80.6 84.1 89.2 90.1 85.8 86.2 83.1 79.2 76.5 71.2 67.8 62.8 64.8 59.9 48.8 54.5 52.0 49.7 44.5 50.2 55.1 56.8 49.1 46.0 51.0 55.4 54.7 50.5 53.8 50.4 48.2 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 138 The first seasonal movement to observe in the demand for money in New York relative to London is a decline throughout January and the greater part of February analogous to the decline in interest rates at this time in New York City previously observed (pp. 16,19, and 21). Concerning the extent and regularity of this movement the evidence may be briefly summarized as follows: For the nineteen years 1890 to 1908 the average rate of exchange (demand drafts) for the first week was 4.8606, as compared with 4.8708 for the seventh; the corresponding average index numbers of exchange rates were 42.7 and 66.9. In seventeen of the nineteen years the rate for the seventh week was higher than that for the first; in seven of these years the index number was more than twice as high. In two years the seventh week was lower than the first. In five of the nineteen years the lowest rate for the year occurred in the first week; in none did it occur in the seventh. These, are weeks in which gold movements to and from the country are generally not strong; the tendency, however, at this time is toward exportation. (Charts XLII and XLIII and pp. 149-151.) The more important reasons of cheapening money at this time in the United States have previously been discussed (p. 28). January is a month of large exports for the United States and of small imports. In February, however, exports fall off decidedly, while imports remain about the same.0 a The following is a series of index numbers for total merchandise exports and imports of the United States by months for the four years 1906 to 1909, inclusive. They were computed, in the same manner as the other index numbers (pp. 13-15), by a student of mine, Mr. R. W. Hamlet: Exports. Month. January... February.. March April May June July August September. October... November. December. Imports. Average, 1906. 1907. 1908. 1909. 1906-1909. 1906. 74.8 38.2 42.9 41.6 23.9 16.9 0.0 23.0 34.1 96.2 90.2 100.0 77.7 40.4 43.1 37.8 9.4 13.0 1.5 0.0 10.0 66.4 96.7 100.0 100.0 62.8 37.3 29.3 10.1 11.9 0 0 7.0 35.1 66.9 56.5 83.2 51.9 18.4 32.8 17.4 15.3 8.9 0.0 0.5 48.9 |100.0 92.7 69.1 76.1 17.0 39.7 10.1 39.0 38.2 31.6 19.4 14.7 12.2 12.7 0.0 0.4 5.4 7.6 14.6 32.0 5.4 82.4 51.6 84.0 56.7 88.1 100.0 Average, 1908. 1909. 1906-1909. 84.1 3.6 75.3 2.9 100.0 18.3 91.4 12.2 83.9 0.0 49.6 29.0 79.2 8.6 82.2 25.8 34.7 51.6 48.2 64.5 45.7 71.3 0.0 100.0 0.0 40.9 79.4 50.4 33.9 57.2 24.1 36.6 47.2 65.3 100.0 95.4 26.2 32.3 59.0 43.4 32.5 34.0 29.3 39.8 34.7 57.4 68.4 73.9 During the forty-three years 1867-1909, inclusive, the highest, second highest, lowest, and second lowest merchandise imports and exports, In London the money market appears to be reasonably strong in January, weakening however in February. The average proportion of reserve to Uabihties of the Bank of England (1845-1900) for January is low, but rises to a high point in February. The average monthly discount rate, on the other hand, is high in January but falls abruptly in February. 0 From the latter part of February (seventh week) until the latter part of March (eleventh week) the relative position of the New York money market becomes somewhat stronger. The average rates for these two weeks, respectively, were 4.8708 and 4.8665; the corresponding average index numbers were 66.9 and 59.1. In eleven of the nineteen years the eleventh week was lower than the seventh, in five it was higher, and in three it was the same. The tendency for a decline in rates from the seventh week to the eleventh is accordingly not a very strong one. March is the only month of the year prior to August that exhibits an average net importation of gold for the period 1890-1908 (Chart XLII and pp. 149-150). The respectively, occurred in the different months the following numbers of times: Imports. Month. January February... March April May June July August September.. October November.. December.. Exports. Second Second Second Highest. highest. Lowest. Second lowest. Highest. highest. Lowest. lowest. 0 2 1 1 4 8 11 12 4 0 0 0 Figures for amounts were taken from the Monthly Summary of Commerce and Finance of the United States (December, 1909, pp. 1024, 1220-1226). The international trade in stocks and bonds are of course very important factors in determining exchange rates. There is, however, no means of ascertaining the monthly volume of this trade. Cf. Conant, Securities as a Means of Payment. Ann. Amer. Acad., XIV, pp. 181203. a These conclusions are based upon Palgrave's figures, which give the "proportion of average monthly discount rate to average annual rate, fifty-six years [1845-1900] at Banks of England, France, [and] Germany * * *.'' The average monthly figures are expressed in terms of index numbers, the average for the fifty-six years 1845-1900 being taken as 100. Average index numbers for the Bank of England's discount rate vary between 89 for July and 116 for November. (Palgrave, Bank Rate, etc., pp. 83 and 136.) SEASONAL DEMAND FO] J MONEY AND CAPITAL. 139 New York money market, it has been found (pp. 28-29), I in London falls rapidly, reaching its lowest level of the tends to harden in March. Aside from the demand to year in June. The average rate for the eleventh week meet quarterly settlements at the end of March, which is was 4.8665, and for the twenty-second was 4.8760; the an important influence in the London market,® March is a corresponding average index numbers were 59.1 and 80.9, moderately weak month in London. Bank reserves rule respectively. In thirteen of the nineteen years the slightly above the average for the year, 6 and the Bank twenty-second week was higher than the eleventh, in of England rate somewhat below the average.0 The three of which the index number was more than twice as " reaction after Christmas, coupled with the comparative high; in three of the years the twenty-second week was absence of visitors to London, causes the retail trade to lower, and in three the figures for the two weeks were the be less active than in the second and fourth quarters.' 7d same (in each case being above 70). In four of the From the latter part of March until the middle of June nineteen years the maximum rate for the year occurred the demand for money in New York City relative to that I in the twenty-second week. There were four index numCHART XXXVI. bers above 75 in the eleventh week as compared with twelve in the twenty-second. « As early as 1865 it was pointed out in the Economist (Oct. 14,1865), that "there is a sort of tide in the cash transactions of the country which periodically empties and periodically fills the bank till. At the close of every quarter there is a strong outgoing current. The nonbanking classes then get their money. Salaries are paid, wages are paid, small dividends are paid; each of these transactions is very minute, but their aggregate mass is very large * * *. Little people are paid in actual cash; they take so much from the bank till * * *. Speaking generally, the middle of each quarter is marked by an incoming current toward the Bank, and the close of every quarter by an outgoing current from the Bank." &Palgrave, p. 83. c Ibid, p. 136. d Interviews on the Banking and Currency Systems of England, etc. Senate Doc. No. 405, 61st Cong., 2d Sess., pp. 15 and 16. For all three of these months (April, May, and June) the movement of gold is outward, the average net exportat i o n reaching their highest figures for the year in May and June (Charts XLII and XLIII and pp. 150-151). These months, especially May and June, are months of small merchandise exports and of moderate imports (p. 138, note). a The London market appears to ease up considerably at this time; the average index number (Palgrave) of proportion of reserve to liabilities was 96 for April, 98 for May, and 104 for June. Bank of England a A minor factor which tends to keep exchange high the latter part of June is the practice described by Margraff. " There are many bankers," he says, "not averse to having their foreign accounts show a debit balance at various times throughout the half-yearly account periods, and who, through a sentiment of pride and an implied 140 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. discount rates rule low for April and June, and are about average for May. a The money spent by American tourists, which runs into large sums, usually has to be settled for during spring and summer months, and this has a tendency to cause higher exchange during this period of the year. The relative demand for money in New York, as compared with London, continues low through July though advancing slightly, and then moves strongly upward in response to crop-moving requirements until it reaches its highest point in the year about the first week of October. The average rate for the twenty-second week was 4.8760, and for the fortieth week was 4.8538; the corresponding average index numbers were 80.9 and 27.3. In eighteen of the nineteen years the rate for the fortieth week was lower than that for the twenty-second, in twelve of which the index number was much less than half what it was in the twenty-second week; in only one year (1890) was the fortieth week higher than the twenty-second. I n two of the nineteen years the minimum rate for the year occurred in the fortieth week. Two index numbers of the nineteen for the twenty-second week were below 60 as compared with eighteen for the fortieth week. By August net gold movements are transformed from exports to imports, and the months of September, October and November are normally months of heavy imports of gold, the heaviest being in October. The low rates during the latter part of this period are of course due to the large quantities of bills offered which are drawn against our great cereal and cotton exports. June, July, and August are the months of smallest merchandise exports; there is an increase in September, while October, November, and December are the months of largest exports. Imports are low in July, August, and September, and variable in the last three months of the year, tending to be high during those months in recent years. 6 The exports, however, so much exceed the imports in the fall and early winter, t h a t exchange falls to the lowest point of the year about October, and gold moves in large quantities to the United States. These fall months are the months of what is commonly known as the " a u t u m n a l pressure" or " a u t u m n a l d r a i n " in the London money market. They are months of heavy demand for cash for crop moving purposes in England, on the Continent, in many of the British colonies, and in agricultural countries elsewhere. From July request on the part of their European friends, always close their accounts on June 30 and December 31 with a liberal cash credit balance created in most cases at the last moment by the purchase of cable transfers. "The demand for cable transfers through this source is sufficiently large to induce some bankers to establish large credit balances with their London friends during the months of June and December, thereby placing themselves in a position to sell cable transfers on June 29 and December 30 at the advanced prices then usually obtained."—Margraff, International Exchange, pp. 50 and 51. a Palgrave, pp. 83 and 136. & Cf. supra, p. 138, note. to November both the bank rate of discount and t h e market rate normally rise, a while October is the month, of lowest reserves in the Bank of England during t h e year. 6 The recent development in the use of finance bills 6 by which funds are borrowed by American bankers, in Europe, especially in London, in the summer, when, exchange is high, to be paid back from the proceeds of the cereal and cotton bills in the fall, have had an important influence upon the sterling exchange market, tending to level somewhat the seasonal variations.^ (Chart X X X V I I and pp. 141-142.) The demands of the United States are of course a very important cause of the autumnal pressure in England, but by no means the only one, as the local needs and the demands of other countries* upon London as the world's money market center, are great in these autumn months. J u s t as we found t h e South strong enough to draw large sums of money from the ^Middle West in the months when the needs of t h e Middle West were greatest (pp. 66, 67, and 110) so here we find the United States drawing heavily on London, when London's needs are greatest. From the fore p a r t of October until the latter p a r t of November the relative demand for money in the United States declines somewhat, although continuing comparatively high, and from t h a t time on until the end of the year it fluctuates considerably, increasing somewhat just prior to the time of January 1 settlements. The average exchange rate for the fortieth week was 4.8538, as compared with 4.8623 for the forty-seventh; the corresponding average index numbers were 27.3 and 49.5. I n sixteen of the nineteen years the forty-seventh week was higher than the fortieth, in ten of which the index number was more than twice as high; in two of the years the fortyseventh week was the lower, and in one year the rates for the two weeks were the same. I n the fifty-second week the average rate was 4.8592, and the average index number 45. The rate for the fifty-second week was higher than that for the forty-seventh in seven years, lower in nine years, and the same in three years. Almost exactly half of the index numbers of rates for the six weeks, forty-seventh to fifty-second, inclusive (1890— 1908), were below 50. As previously mentioned, gold imports fall off very decidedly in December (Chart X L I I and p . 149). By this time the crop-moving demand has largely spent its force in this country and the large importations of gold i n t a the United States have exerted considerable influence upon the money markets in both the United States and England. Discount rates decline somewhat in December in London,* and the Bank of England's reserves increase «Cf. Jevons: Essays in Currency, etc., pp. 160 ff.; Palgrave: Bank Rate, etc., pp. 136, 138, and 139; and Clare: A Money Market Primer*, charts between pp. 140 and 141. & Palgrave, p. 83. cCf. Margraff: International Exchange (Chicago, 1904), chapter 6. dCt infra, pp. 141-142. « Palgrave, p. 136. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR, MONEY AND CAPITAL. t o the average figure for the year in November and December. THE INFLUENCE OP F I N A N C E BILLS. (Chart XXXVII, Tables XIV and 13.) Since the beginning of the present century there has been a very great development of the use of finance bills In New York City as a means of borrowing upon European account. These bills " a r e drawn at thirty, sixty, or ninety days' sight by American banking institutions upon their European correspondents * * *. By far the largest portion are drawn upon London * * *." They " a r e usually covered by collateral security in the form of stocks and / or bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange so that in case of need, the collateral can be readily realized upon without sacrifice." 0 Finance bills are drawn in considerable quantities during the two or three months preceding the crop-moving demand when exchange is usually high, with the expectation on the part of American bankers of covering by means of cereal and cotton bills in the fall at lower rates of exchange. There appears to be a common opinion among bankers t h a t the great development in the use of such bills during the last eight or ten years has largely destroyed what was previously considered the normal seasonal swing in sterling exchange. Nearly every banker whom the writer consulted with reference to the matter of seasonal variations in sterling exchange emphasized this idea to a greater or less degree. I t is shown by the following quotation from a letter of a New York banker: " Y o u r exchange charts are extremely interesting and show how in the past foreign exchange rates have followed the price of money, but apart from showing what has already happened their usefulness is at an end owing to the entire change which has come over the exchange market during recent years. The raising of capital in Europe by means of London credits has completely revolutionized exchange, which is affected now-a-days much more by the drawings under these credits than by commercial conditions, and hence we frequently find in the Fall very high rates ruling instead of the absolute reverse to which we have been accustomed." To test the truth of such opinions I have divided the sterling exchange figures into two periods, one from 1890 to 1899, inclusive—years before finance bills had attained very great importance—and the other from 1900 t o 1908, inclusive—years in which they were used in large and apparently increasing quantities. Of course, the first period merges gradually into the second, there having been no sharp line of division. The average exchange rates and the average index numbers of exchange rates for these two periods, respectively, are shown on Chart X X X V I I . a Margraff, pp. 35 and 36. 141 A reference to the chart and to the figures upon which it is based will show that the general seasonal movements of the two periods are essentially the same, the chief differences being, (1) the greater drop in February and March in the latter period than in the former, (2) the lower average rates throughout the year, especially during the spring and summer in the latter period, (3) and the less minor fluctuations in the curves for the latter period. While the evidence therefore points clearly to a "leveling down" tendency since the recent growth in the use of finance bills, it does not appear to justify the conclusion that the seasonal swing of previous years has been destroyed. a PARIS E X C H A N G E IN N E W YORK CITY. (Chart XXXVIII and Tables XIV and 14.) A comparison of the curves for seasonal variations in Paris exchange with the reverse 5 curve (Curve " C " ) of the index numbers for London exchange (Chart X X X V I ) will reveal a remarkable parallelism 0 in the movements of the two exchanges. Such a parallelism was to be expected in view of the close dependence of the Paris exchange rates in New York City on the sterling rates which was referred to in the fore part of this chapter (p. 146, and note b). Paris exchange exhibits seven well-marked seasonal movements as follows: Throughout the month of January Paris exchange tends downward. The average rate declined from 5.1817 in the first week to 5.1724 in the fifth. The corresponding average index numbers were 48.2 and 27.7. I n every one of the ten years the fifth week was lower than the first, and in five of them the index number was less than half. Discount rates at the Bank of France average highest in January and November of any months in the year.** Paris exchange advances from about the 1st of February to the latter part of March. The average rate advanced from 5.1724 in the fifth week to 5.1837 in the eleventh. The corresponding average index numbers were 27.7 and 50.7. I n eight of the ten years the eleventh week was higher than the fifth, in four of which a In every one of the nine years 1900-1908 the rate was much lower in the fortieth week than in the twenty-second. The maximum index number in the fortieth week was 59.3, while the minimum in the twenty-second week was 54.4; and eight of the nine index numbers in the fortieth week were lower than the minimum of the twenty-second week. b Paris exchange being quoted in terms of francs to the dollar and London exchange in terms of dollars to the pound, move in opposite directions under like influences. For Paris exchange the index numbers of exchange rates and of the relative demand for money are obviously the same. c A very close parallelism will also be observed between the movements of these curves and the curve of index numbers for interest rates on four months' time paper. dPalgrave, p. 136. CHART XXXVII. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. the index number was more than four times as high; in one year it was lower, and in one it was the same. Average discount rates at the Bank of France are high in February but lower than in January; they are moderate in March. a From the latter part of March until the fore part of May Paris exchange falls rapidly. The average rate fell from 5.1837 for the eleventh week to 5.1675 for the eighteenth. The corresponding average index numbers were 50.7 and 17.6. I n eight of the ten years the rate was lower in the eighteenth week than in the eleventh. Eight of the ten index numbers for the eighteenth week were below 17, as compared with two for the eleventh week; on the other hand eight were above 25 (of which five were above 143 60) for the eleventh week, as compared with two (of which the higher was 52.5) for the eighteenth week. Average discount rates at the Bank of France fall in March and April and are the same in May as for April, the proportions for the fifty-six year period 1845-1900 being—February 104, March 101, April 98, and May 98. a Paris exehange rules very low from the fore part of May to the fore part of July. The average rate was 5.1675 for the eighteenth week and 5.1683 for the twenty-seventh week, the corresponding average index numbers being 17.6 and 20.3. Of the one hundred index numbers occurring between the eighteenth and the twenty-seventh weeks, inclusive (for the ten years 1899-1908), sixtyeight were below 25. The index number (Palgrave) for CHART XXXVIII. average monthly discount rate at the Bank of France is 92 for June, and 89 for July, making July the month of lowest discount rate in the year. a The fifth period is the autumnal advance, extending from the fore part of July to the fore part of October, when the average rate reaches its highest point in the year. The average rate advanced from 5.1683 for the twentyseventh week to 5.1908 for the thirty-ninth. The corresponding average index numbers were 20.3 and 68.5. In every one of the ten years the thirty-ninth week was higher than the twenty-seventh, and in seven of them the index number was more than twice as high. The Pal- grave index number of Bank of France discount rates was 96 for August and September and 103 for October. Having reached its annual maximum about the 1st of October the Paris rate declined to a lower b u t still moderately high level by about the first week of November. The average rate declined from 5.1908 for the thirtyninth week to 5.1813 for the forty-fourth. The corresponding average index numbers were 68.5 and 44.5. I n six of the ten years the forty-fourth week was lower than the thirty-ninth, in five of which the index number was less than half; in four years the forty-fourth week was the higher, but in only one of these was the index num- a Palgrave, p. 136. a Palgrave, p. 136. 144 NATIONAL MONE1DARY COMMISSION. ber as much as twice as high. Six index numbers for the thirty-ninth week were higher than the maximum index number (77) for the forty-fourth week. The evidence for a downward tendency from the thirty-ninth week to the forty-fourth is obviously not so strong as that for the other movements mentioned. The moderately high level reached about the first week of November is maintained until the end of the year. Both average index numbers and average rates were comparatively constant from the forty-fourth week until the fifty-second week. For these two weeks, respectively, the average rates were 5.1813 and 5.1852, and the average index numbers 44.5 and 49.9. Individual rates exhibited much irregularity during these weeks. Forty-one of the ninety index numbers coming in this period (for the ten years) were above 50, and the others were 50 or below. Palgrave's index number for Bank of France discount rate rises from 96 for September, to 103 for October, and 106 for November, and then falls to 105 for December.** EXCHANGE IN NEW YORK CITY ON BERLIN. (Chart XXXIX and Tables XIV and 14.) The last foreign-exchange rate to consider is that of Germany. This "account is of great magnitude and it follows that of the English Account in importance and volume of business with the American banks * * *." 6 Even more than the French account it is dominated by sterling exchange. CHART XXXIX. / / \ too P*\ Seasonal Yortoffone \ 1 fo If to \ so As Evidenced \\ Exchonge fctte9 m New \\ ^ \ / \ '* v f SO / IN l\ i ! \ v VJ W, ^V \T* w v ^ fl fv\ 9*o / n y\ v .\ V\ i \ i \ 1• \ to t-—£xL Index Numbers of fxchonge C Index Numbers of 1 tonfa fohfh/e 1 s JO \lonuarn \f«6rtJOrt/\ tfOrch l 1 is flf,l for 1 to \ Mou Money i 1 June i 2S I Ju/u N \ / \ \ \ / \ / 1 • VV f wV / .*? I ftot ts Demand I II \ honqe /?c/es 8 \ • i V 20 6erfm \ / / / / by York Cifu on \\ /T / \r D&nond for Moneu \ ! 10 GO Re/offve V :a _L August AS J Sepfembit\ to Qc/ot>ar 4-5 \/Vorem6er io \ December •f« Wtets if | Jor> t*»7/»l week to 0.9493 for the tenth, the average index number of rates varying during the same period from 50.5 for the first week to 59.3 for the fourth. Fifty-two of the one hundred and ten index numbers for this period (first eleven weeks of each of the ten years 1899-1908) were between 33 and 67, thus showing a tendency toward moderate rates at this period of the year. From the fore part of March until the last of June the demand for money in New York City relative to that in <* This period might be interpreted as the continuation of the one beBerlin falls off very rapidly, reaching the lowest point of ginning in September. In view of the character of the index number Four seasonal periods are shown by the Berlin exchange chart for the variations in the relative demand for money in New York City as compared with Berlin. The first period extends from the beginning of the year to nearly the middle of March.0 At this time the demand for money in New York City relative to Berlin appears to be moderate. The average weekly exchange rate varies between the first and eleventh week from 0.9503 for the fourth we are using, however, it seems best to consider each year as a unit, beginning January 1 and ending December 31. Cf. pp. 13, 14, and 22. a Palgrave, p. 136. & Margraff, p. 130. SEASONAL DEMAND FOI MONEY AND CAPITAL. the year in the twenty-fifth week. The average rate of exchange rose from 0.9493 for the tenth week to 0.9531 for the twenty-fifth week, the average index number rising at the same time from 51.7 to 90.1. In every year but 'one (1906, in which the difference was slight) the rate was higher in the twenty-fifth week than in the tenth. The lowest index number occurring in the twenty-fifth wreek was 59.5 (1906), while there were seven in the tenth week lower than this figure. Palgrave's index numbers 0 for the average discount rate of the Reichsbank were 94 for March, 94 for April, 96 for May, and 96 for June, showing that the German money market at this period of the year tends to be easy. The relative demand for money in New York City, as compared with Berlin, having reached its minimum for the year the last of June, advances rapidly until early in September. The average rate declined from 0.9531 in the twenty-fifth week to 0.9483 in the thirty-sixth. The corresponding average index numbers were 90.1 and 48.8. In every one of the ten years there was a decline from the twenty-fifth week to the thirty-sixth, and in four of them the index number for the thirty-sixth week was less than half what it was in the twenty-fifth. The Palgrave index number for average discount rates at the Reichsbank rose from 96 for June to 97 for July, declined to 96 for August, and then rose to 100 for September. 0 The Berlin exchange market during the last four months of the year is very uncertain. From the first of September until the end of the year the average index numbers (of rates) remain about constant, exhibiting only minor fluctuations. The average rates, on the other hand fluctuate considerably at a moderately low level. A reference to the figures for the individual years shows no uniform tendency during the last four months of the year. There were otie hundred and severity index numbers occurring from the thirty-sixth to the fiftysecond weeks, inclusive, for the ten years, and of these slightly over one-third were above 67, slightly over a third were between 33 and 67, and a little less than a third were below 37. A period in which the index numbers are so widely scattered as this can only be characterized as one of a very uncertain market. The Palgrave index numbers for average discount rates at the Reichsbank were 100 for September, 107 for October, 109 for November, and 110 for December, 6 making December the maximum month of the year. c « Palgrave, p . 136. & I t is noteworthy that the Reichsbank's issue of notes beyond the statutory limit have occurred almost exclusively about the beginning of October or of January and that the " c o n t i n g e n t " note issue allowed is increased materially on settlement days at the end of each quarter. C. F . Dunbar, The Theory and History of Banking, p . 238; and article 2 of the German Imperial banking law of J u n e 1, 1909. c Palgrave, p . 136. 16065°—11 10 145 IMPORTS A N D E X P O R T S OP GOLD. (Charts X L I I and X L I I I . Tables X V I I , X V I I I , 16 and 17.) The discussion and charts concerning imports and exports of gold will be found in the following chapter on Seasonal Variations in the Supply of Money (pp. 149-152). CHAPTER VI.—SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE MONEY SUPPLY. I n previous chapters we have considered seasonal variations in the relative demand for money and moneyed capital in the different sections of the country, and have compared the relative demand in the different sections with each other. The relative demand, or demand relative to supply, has been the subject studied in all cases. In this chapter we shall consider seasonal variations in the absolute (not relative) supply of money, with the object of discovering to what extent, if any, the supply of money in circulation varies during the seasons in response to seasonal changes in the demand. Inasmuch as the primary work of money is to serve as a common medium of exchange, the supply of money is obviously a quantity of two dimensions: (1) the amount of money in circulation and (2) its rate of turnover.61 The same volume of exchange work is done by $100 being exchanged against goods ten times as by $1,000 being exchanged against goods once. I t is quite probable that the rate of monetary turnoyer varies more or less regularly during the seasons, and it seems reasonable to believe that the rate of turnover is greater in the active harvest season than in the comparatively sluggish summer months. On this point, however, we have no information, and we shall be compelled to assume a constant rate of turnover throughout the year. The expression umoney in circulation" is sometimes used to cover all money outside of Federal Treasury vaults, and sometimes to cover only such money exclusive of bank reserves. I n view of the peculiar function of bank reserves of serving as the basis for deposit currency or check circulation, 6 it would be desirable in a study of this kind to treat such money separately from that in active circulation outside of banks. Unfortunately, however, figures for bank reserves for the different months of the year are not obtainable, and such a separation is impossible. Considerable evidence as to the seasonal variations of bank reserves will be found in the tables and charts (chapters 2 and 3) showing these variations for the cities of New York, Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans, a On the general subject of the rate of monetary turnover see Kemmerer: Money and Credit Instruments in their Relation to General Prices, Book I, chapters 2 and 3, and Book I I , chapter 4; also Irving Fisher: A Practical Method of Estimating the Velocity of Circulation of Money. Journal of the Royal Statistical Association, September, 1909. &Cf., Kemmerer: Money and Prices, p . 79. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 146 and San Francisco. Throughout this chapter the expression "money in circulation" is used to cover all money outside of the Federal Treasury vaults, which is included in the Government's figures for " money in circulation." The various kinds of money in circulation in the United States may be grouped under two headings, which, for want of better names, we may designate as " presumably elastic money" and upresumably inelastic money." The latter class covers such money as United States notes, Treasury notes of 1890 (of which only a few remain), and silver (including silver certificates), nickel, and copper coin—money whose amount in circulation is determined directly by the Government. The former class covers gold (including gold certificates) and national-bank notes, kinds of money whose amounts in circulation are supposed to vary more or less automatically according to the demands of trade. We shall consider, first, seasonal variations in the circulation of the "presumably elastic money," together with the particular influences which directly affect the circulation of the two varieties of money coming under this head; then we shall consider seasonal variations in the circulation of the "presumably inelastic money;" and, finally, seasonal variations in the total money in circulation with the influences which affect both constituent classes indifferently. PRESUMABLY ELASTIC MONEY. GOLD AND GOLD CERTIFICATES. (Charts X L - X L I I I , Tables X V - X V I I I , and 15-18.) A cursory glance at Chart XL shows that the circulation of gold coin and gold certificates (taken together) remains fairly constant from January to July, inclusive, exhibiting only minor fluctuations, and then increases rapidly until the end of the year. Inasmuch as a large part of the period (1890-1908) under study has been characterized by rapidly increasing gold production, the normal thing to expect, in the absence of seasonal variations, would be a steady increase in the gold circulation from January to December.** Viewing the chart more closely, we observe the following seasonal movements: a Cf. p . 22; also Kemmerer: Money and Prices, pp. 43-60. T A B L E XV.—Seasonal variations in the amounts of various kinds of money in circulation in the United States—Average figures, 1890-1908.a Gold coin and gold certificates. Month. January... February.. March April May June July August September, October.... November. December. National-bank notes. All other money. Total money. Index Index Index Index Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. number. ber. ber. ber. 806.2 811.8 805.6 810.6 816.2 814.4 811.1 818.7 821.6 831.2 841.1 847.6 29.7 39.1 24.7 30.7 37.8 34.4 33.6 41.0 43.1 56.3 70.4 78.1 310.7 310.5 313.9 316.4 317.9 319.2 319.9 321.3 324.1 327.6 332.0 335.6 23.1 19.8 34.1 42.4 43.1 43.9 44.0 46.4 56.1 66.6 77.6 87.1 929.5 924.4 924.9 926.8 925.8 924.1 922.8 923.6 931.7 941.7 949.3 949.6 2,046.4 2,046.7 2,044.4 2,053.8 2,059.9 2,057.7 2,053.8 2,063.6 2,077.4 2,100.5 2,122.4 2,132.8 21.4 22.6 19.4 27.3 31.9 27.3 25.3 31.4 42.7 63.3 83.0 a Figures by months for the individual years 1890-1908 are given in Table 15 of the Appendix (pp. 381-385). The "gold circulation,"* which is low in January, increases slightly in February. For January the average amount in circulation was $806,200,000 and for February $811,800,000, the average index numbers for these two months, respectively, being 29.7 and 39.1. In fourteen of the nineteen years the gold circulation was larger in February than in January, the five exceptional years being those of the panic and depression period of 1893-1897. In seven different years the month of minimum gold circulation was January, while in only one year was it February. T A B L E XVI.—Seasonal variations in the value of gold bullion deposited at the United States mints and assay offices—Average figures for the period 1890-1908.* Month. January.. February March... April May June Average amount. $8,219,107 6,735,970 7,644,716 9,004,766 8,504,201 7,053,124 Average index number. 22.5 9.5 16.8 21.4 22.4 11.0 Month. July August September. October... November. December. Average amount. I$ll,867,121 11,255,706 11,167,447 15,001,387 11,889,189 9,936,831 Average index number. 52.8 48.1 49.4 80.1 45.5 27.9 a This expression will be used to cover gold coin and gold certificates taken together. & Figures by months for the individual years 1890-1908 are given in Table 16 of the Appendix (p. 386). Oct\ CHART XL. c: Months : / *340 Y / /} 0 33S oJ? / i7 1 330 \S37.S fi\-erage (; - — # * ! 9 L 1 41 LJUJU L,C/ /// /co/c~> Index Plumbers of Gold Coin and Cold -erage ft mounts of National Bank fh'erage Index /vur/iDi zrs u/ /v U//UI/VI Di J//J\ l VC//C. > / 1 310 \207.S SOS , 1 \*\ \M f>f / 'l 40 30 b '" / 0. D C >- -_ \ !t 20 to hs n SEASONAL \soao SO \i 1 / < / ' 60 5 \\ ** \\ \ »\ / \ 1 \ Ml K,..j7 . no . \\\ / 320 \8tSO \ \x s / 1i 3)S* \ \ y AS / Notes S2S \s22.6 Cerhfica tes 80 / \\\ \\\ f s~~isj /*~-j-:r.s,s,j*>*. serage ft mounts 0/ uu/u cuinufiu JlHonm \ \ 1 \\ / Tazoo 4 Vj VARIATIONS in the Amounts 3 CO of a VARIOUS KINDS OF MONEY in CIRCULATION %30 10 in TI/£ UNITED STATED j / / ,~ ^ ~ / /J ISW-flOS. 2/70 1 1 1 80 / / ft ItJ / / / / / 2110 10 l 1 E I fto 2O40 I 1 1 HI 1 / / n Average Index Numbers l\\ \ p SO / iff! iff i/ 45 1 t1 t 2080 CO .j / // of TOTAL Mone r. ' // /J 40 \\ * ^ \ 1 <}2£ i-t l\ I 1 Money. Average ft mounts of TOTAL AAo/ver r 130 F-*——*- Average Index Numbers of ft It Other 2J00 t 1 1 j Average Amounts of fit I Other Monet/. ^^Z^ 2010 ». \ ^ H ^ . \ y ^ // /\ /If / If / - " "T y 30 \ N 2060 H H to 20S0 \Q G< <?/o 2o 0 ZQ4Q 11- Months 11 1 fan/A (147) CHART XLI. \ so SEASONAL if V/u?j/moNs. vV in the YALUE OF GOLD BULLION 70 #/4.7 V it DEPOSITED 13.7 \ of the UNITED STATES MINT AND ASSAY OFFICES. \ mo-flos. CO li ii 1 \\ *\ 1 ii ii ii so 40 I 1 1 •S x v^^*_ r \ ^ « v\ ! fiii! //.7 i I i it It I0.1 V \\ \\ i'i> ii It li ii t \ 30 11 11 11 J A 20 8 \ \ /O 11 \ / \ • i ' fi * Average Amounts 3 Average Index Numbers » ' 11 V Deposited. \ \ ' i of Amounts i . i ^ X V 4 (148) 8.1 S Deposited. . . 77 / » A / 1 o \Monik v^ \ \ ft ' t \ \ i i II i t ^7 \ *^^>_ I - — • 77 \ 11 11 11 > , 1 ^ * $.7 K ^ ^ £ ^ £ ^ J Won/M SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. A reference to Chart X L I shows that the bullion deposits at the United States mint and assay offices are less in February than in January. 149 TABLE XVIII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyr as evidenced by weekly net imports and net exports of gold at New York City, etc.—Continued. [Amounts expressed in thousands of dollars.] TABLE XVII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced by monthly net imports and net exports of gold. Figures for nineteen-year period 1890-1908.a Month—Week. [ A m o u n t s expressed in t h o u s a n d s of dollars.] Total excess of imports. Month. Total excess of exports. Average index number of relative demand for m o n e y fi July—26 $15,469 27 10,418 2,145 28 29 30 $32,747 13,408 January February $43,233 March 29,888 148,048 133,531 April May June July 37,352 s 44 * 300 117,904 152,716 96,743 34,437 September December 46.7 49.4 Aug.—31 32 60.0 48.4 33 34 31.8 31.3 Sept.—35 42.8 57.0 37 38 39 Oct.—40 70.7 79.7 63.0 53.2 a Figures by months for the individual vears are given in Table 17 of the Appendix, pp. 387-388. b For method of computing index numbers see pp. 13-15,22. TABLE XVIII.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money, as evidenced by weekly net imports and net exports of gold at New York City. Figures for ten-year period 1899-1908 A [Amounts expressed in thousands of dollars.] Total excess exports. Month—Week. Average index Total number excess of relative imports. demand for m o n e y . t> $612 2 3 4 Feb.—5 6 7 8 Mar.—9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 61 9 $2,167 t 3,892 10,221 12,474 8,335 1,712 1,337 3,047 2,987 955 1,229 967 1,922 3,358 1,712 63 7 60.3 54 7 54 53 62 62 3 9 8 7 58 59 64 63 64 61 58 1 5 4 9 1 3 9 62 8 12,687 j 13,767 56 1 54 6 May—18 19 20 21 15,093 I 15,214 53 5 52 5 17,655 51 5 June—22 19,448 1 12,381 48 6 55 3 9,981 28,239 i 40.8 23 24 25 56 1 a Figures by months for the individual vears are given in Table 18 of the Appendix, pp. 389-390. b For method of computing index numbers see pp. 13-15,22. Total excess exports. 53.7 55.1 62.5 2,504 61.8 1,704 2,129 12,204 59.8 11,258 55.2 1,248 1,457 62.8 62.9 36 57.7 53.7 $271 3,405 14,724 12,103 10,340 14,598 6,423 1,200 41 42 43 Nov.—44 Average index number Total excess of relative imports. demand for money. 5,470 63.9 65.9 72.5 72.3 71.1 75.3 68.0 65.7 60.1 45 8,223 46 47 11,372 4,768 67.1 63.9 60 9 Dec—48 17,187 70 4 49 50 51 52 7,001 62 8 5,168 62.0 60 8 683 128 61 2 Chart X L I I shows that February is a month in which there is no strong tendency either to gold imports or gold exports; a the January net exports, however, average less than those of February. 6 A third influence which affects the gold circulation is that of subtreasury payments and receipts, which will be considered later (pp. 155-159). I n March the gold circulation normally declines somewhat, reaching at this time the lowest point in the year as measured by average figures. The average circulation fell from $811,800,000 for February to $805,600,000 for March, the corresponding index numbers being 39.1 and 24.7. I n fifteen of the nineteen years the gold circulation was less in March than in February. There were thirteen index numbers below 25 in March as compared with six in February, and there were four 0 in March as compared with one in February. Chart X L I shows that there is a tendency in March toward a small increase over February in the bullion deposited at mints and assay offices. o Cf. infra, pp. 150-151. b In Table XVIII and Chart XLIII the figures by weeks for the net imports and net exports of gold at New York City are shown for the period 1899-1908. This Table and Chart are given merely as supplementary evidence to that afforded by Table XVII and Chart XLII, and they are not further discussed in the report. 150 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. March is the only month prior to August that shows a net importation of gold for the period 1890-1908. For the months of February there was a total net exportation of $13,408,000 and for the months of March a total net importation of $43,233,000. The average index number rose from 49.4 for February to 60 for March. Despite the increasing deposits of bullion in March at the mints and assay offices and the tendency for gold to come into the country, the gold circulation appears to decline, the reason apparently being the larger subtreasury holdings of money in March. (Chart XLV.) The gold circulation increases again in April and May, though the increase is comparatively small. The average amount of gold in circulation rose from $805,600,000 in March to $810,600,000 in April and $816,200,000 in May, the average index numbers for these three months, respectively, being 24.7,30.7, and 37.8. In fourteen of the nineteen years the gold circulation for May was larger than for March. In March there were thirteen index numbers below 25, of which eight were below 10 and four were 0; in May there were only six below 25, of which two were below 10 and none were 0. Deposits of gold bullion at the mints and assay offices, though comparatively small in April and May, are larger than in March. The net imports of gold which were found to characterize the month of March become transformed to net exports in April. May was the month of largest net exports CHART XLII. during the nineteen years. For the nineteen months of March there was a total net importation of $43,233,000, and for the nineteen months of May a total net exportation of $148,048,000. The average index numbers for these two months, respectively, were 60 and 31.8. In seventeen of the nineteen years the index number for May was less than for March, and in eleven of them it was less than half. Seven of the nineteen zero index numbers occurred in May. June and July are characterized by slight decreases in the gold circulation. The average amount fell from $816,200,000 in May to $811,100,000 in July, the average index number falling from 37.8 to 33.6. This decline is not of much importance, for it is small in amount and occurred in only eleven of the nineteen years. In June deposits of gold at the mints and assay offices fall to the lowest figure in the year, and in July they rise to a comparatively high figure. Gold continues to move out of the country in large quantities in June, but the exports fall off very much in July. For the nineteen months of June the total net exportation of gold amounted to $133,531,000, and for the nineteen months of July it amounted to only $37,352,000. The average index number for June was 31.3—the lowest of any month—and for July was 42.8. In fourteen years the index number for July was higher than that for June, in eight of which it was more than twice as high. From July to the end of the year the gold circulation increases continually, the most pronounced increase being in October and November. The average amount of gold CHART XLIII. (151) 152 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. in circulation increased from $811,100,000 for July to $847,600,000 for December, the average index number increasing at the same time from 33.6 for July to 78.1 for December. Clearly the month of maximum gold circulation is December. In fifteen of the nineteen years the circulation for December was larger than for July. In eleven years the maximum gold circulation for the year occurred in December; in no year did it occur in July. December had only two index numbers below 25, both of which, however, were 0. August, September, October, and November are months of large deposits of gold bullion at the mints and assay offices, and this is particularly true of October, which is the month of largest deposits. The question naturally arises, Are these large deposits of bullion during the crop-moving season brought about to any extent by the greater demand for moneyed capital at that time and the resulting high-interest rates ? Do these higher interest rates afford inducements to owners of bullion to bring it to the mints and assay offices in larger quantities at this time ? In answer to an inquiry concerning this matter, Mr. Edward Brush, vice-president of the American Smelting and Refining Company, writes: " T h e receipts of gold at the Assay Office are, in my opinion, regulated absolutely by the production, rather than by the demand for gold. Many mines are not able to ship during the winter, and others are unable to ship during the spring. The result is that there is an accumulation of ore that comes into the smelting works and is worked off during the early summer and is refined during the months of August, September, and October. On the other hand, the smelters are always short of men during the summer which would result in reducing the output of the refiners during the months of, say, November, December, and January. But, without going into particulars, or proving up particulars, it seems to me very plain t h a t no one producing gold would hold it for market. The price is fixed and the willingness on the part of the Government to receive is constant. There is nothing to induce anyone, therefore, to hold back gold from putting it in the Assay Office, and the loss to principal and interest would operate to induce every producer to put his gold into the Assay Office as soon as it could be refined and placed in marketable shape. At least the American Smelting and Refining Company are always governed by the above principles, and we deposited in the various assay offices of the country our entire gold production last year as soon as same was refined. As this production was in excess of 2,800,000 ounces, you will see that it was a very large proportion of the total amount of refinery bars deposited in the mints." I t is certainly a fortunate coincidence that conditions surrounding the production of gold are such that it comes to the mints and assay offices in largest quantities in the very month of the year in which it is needed most. The last five months of the year are characterized by net importations of gold, these importations being largest in October, September, and November (in the order named). The nineteen months of October showed a total net importation of $152,700,000 as compared with a total net exportation of $133,500,000 for the nineteen months of June. The average index number rose from 31.3 for June to 79.7 for October. In eighteen of the nineteen years the index number for October was higher than that for June, in twelve of which it was more than twice as high. The only year in which it was lower in October than in June was 1895, and then the difference was small—92.9 for June and 85.9 for October. Six of the nineteen 100 occurred in October. NATIONAL-BANK NOTES. (Charts XL and IV, Tables XV and 15.) In most countries bank notes are expected to provide the principal elastic element in the money supply. Issued as they usually are against bank advances on commercial paper, their circulation increases and decreases during the seasons in response to the needs of commerce. W h a t is the situation in the United States ? The period from 1893 to 1908 being one of expanding bank-note circulation,® it would be expected that in the absence of purely seasonal variations the curve of national bank-note circulation would move upward from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. Such a movement is found. I n every year after 1893 b u t 1908 the bank-note circulation for December was substantially higher than for J a n u a r y ; in fact, in every one of these years but 1908 the index number for December was more than five times as large as t h a t for January* During 1890, 1891, and 1908 the circulation declined from January to December. Taking up the general seasonal movements in more detail we find the following: The circulation in January is relatively low, January being the second lowest month in the year. For January the average index number was 23.1 and the average circulation was $310,700,000. While the maximum circulation for the year occurred in January three times during the nineteen years, the minimum occurred in January seven times; fifteen of the January index numbers were below 25, of which thirteen were below 10. The circulation drops to the lowest figure for the year in February. The average amount dropped slightly, i. e., from $310,700,000 to $310,500,000, the average index number falling from 23.1 in January to 19.8 in February. I n eleven of the nineteen years the index number for February was below that of January. February has the same number of index numbers below 25 as January, but has only two above 75 as compared with January's four. The « The years 1890 and 1891 were years of contracting national banknote circulation, while in 1892 the circulation remained fairly constant. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR\ MONEY AND CAPITAL. decline from January to February is not sufficiently pronounced or regular to be of much consequence. From February to April the circulation increases. The average amount in circulation rose from $310,500,000 in February to $316,400,000 in April, the index number rising at the same time from 19.8 to 42.4. In sixteen of the nineteen years the April circulation was larger than t h a t for February. April had five index numbers below 25, including three below 10, none of which were 0, while February had fifteen below 25, including thirteen below 10, six of which were 0. Here is a small increase in the banknote circulation occuring with considerable regularity at the time of the spring increase in the demand for moneyed capital. (Cf. Charts I, I I , and III.) The moderate level of circulation reached in April continues through August with a very slight upward tendency. The average amount in circulation increased slowly, from $316,400,000 in April to $321,300,000 in August; the average index number rising from 42.4 in April to 43.1 in May, 43.9 in June, 44 in July, and 46.4 in August. In ten of the nineteen years the circulation for August was higher than for April and in nine it was lower. One April index number and four August index numbers were above 75, while five April index numbers and six August index numbers were below 25. The evidence accordingly points to a fairly constant circulation at a moderate level for the five months April to August. From August to December there is a continuous and substantial increase, December being clearly the month of maximum circulation. The average index number advanced from 46.4 for August to 56.1 for September, 66.6 for October, 77.6 for November, and 87.1 for December. From August to December the average amount in circulation increased from $321,300,000 to $335,600,000. The maximum index number occuring in August was 96.5 and there were only four August index numbers above 75; in December there were fifteen index numbers above 90, of which nine were 100. In sixteen of the nineteen years the circulation for December was higher than for August. The upward movement at this time is accordingly pronounced and regular. The national bank-note circulation curves do not appear to exhibit any considerable seasonal elasticity, i. e., rise and fall according to the seasonal variations in the demands of trade; it is noteworthy, however, that the increase in the circulation, which takes place normally from year to year, takes place largely in the fall and early winter. Apparently banks intending to increase their circulation postpone doing so until the crop-moving season approaches, so that the year's normal increase takes place principally during the latter part of the year. a There is no evidence of contraction when the crop-moving demands are over, the national bank-note elasticity being (to use a rather inelegant expression) of the chewing-gum a Deposits of lawful money in the Treasury to retire national-bank notes from circulation are generally greater during the first half year. Cf. infra, p. 154. 153 variety. Here, however, as in the case of bullion deposited at the mints and assay offices (Chart X L I ) , it is fortunate that the increase which normally does take place each year takes place in the season when it is needed most PRESUMABLY INELASTIC MONEY. (Chart XL, Tables XV and 15.) This class of money, which is called on Chart X L "all other money," is made up principally of United States notes, silver dollars and silver certificates, subsidiary silver coin, minor coins of nickel and copper, and a few treasury notes of 1890. Its principal seasonal movements are as follows: The circulation of other kinds of money in January is moderate, the average index number being 40.2, the highest of any month prior to September, and the average amount being $929,500,000, the highest amount prior to September. January had three index numbers above 75 and seven below 25. The circulation of other kinds of money declines in February to one of the lowest points of the year, the average index number falling from 40.2 in January to 25.7 in February—the second lowest index number in the year— while the average amount declined from $929,500,000 to $924,400,000, the fourth lowest amount in the year. I n fifteen of the nineteen years the circulation in February was lower than that in January. January had seven index numbers below 25, of which five were below 10, including one 0; while February had nine below 25, of which seven were below 10, including six 0. The evidence for a decline in February is accordingly strong. From February to April there is an increase in the circulation, the average index number rising from 25.7 to 35.4, and the average amount rising slightly, i. e., from $924,400,000 to $926,800,000. I n fourteen of the nineteen years the circulation for April was larger than for February. February had seven index numbers below 10, of which six were 0; April had two below 10, of which one was a 0. February and April each had one index number above 75. As in the case of national-bank notes, there is an increase in the circulation at the time of the spring demand. The circulation of "other kinds of money" declines from April to July, the average index number falling from 35.4 in April to 25 in July, giving July the smallest average index number of any month in the year. The average amount declined from $926,800,000 in April to $922,800,000 in July. I n twelve of the nineteen years the circulation in July was lower than that in April. April had six index numbers below 25, of which two were below 10, including one 0; July had eleven index numbers below 25, of which seven were below 10, including five 0. There is accordingly fair evidence for a downward tendency from April to July. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 154 From July to the end of the year there is an upward movement, which becomes pronounced after August, the average index numbers increasing from 25 for July to 27.9 for August, 46.9 for September, 69.8 for October, 86.2 for November, and 86.8 for December. The average amount in circulation increased steadily from $922,800,000 for July to $949,600,000 for December. I n sixteen of the nineteen years the circulation for December was higher than for July. December had fifteen index numbers above 90, of which thirteen were 100; July had only one index number above 75, which was 96.5. December had two index numbers below 25, of which one was a 0; July had eleven below 25, of which five were 0. The evidence is accordingly strong for a fairly pronounced and a regular increase in the circulation of "other kinds of m o n e y " from July to December. December clearly is the month of maximum circulation. There appears to be little evidence for any appreciable elasticity in the circulation of the " other kinds of money." As in the case of national-bank notes, which appear to be even less elastic than " t h e presumably inelastic money," the year's normal increase (in response to the growth of population and trade) takes place principally from August to December. The fluctuations which take place from January to August are due in large part to variations in subtreasury holdings. TOTAL MONEY IN CIRCULATION. (Charts XL, XLIV, and XLV,« and Tables XV, XIX, 15, and 19.) The seasonal variations in the three constituent elements of the total money in circulation (i. e., gold, national-bank notes, and " o t h e r kinds of money") have been analyzed, and some of the forces affecting them have been considered. Our next topic is seasonal variation in the total monetary circulation. In addition to the particular forces affecting the circulation of each of the above kinds of money, there is one important force which affects the circulation of all kinds, and that is cash receipts and disbursements of the subtreasury offices. These receipts and disbursements alternately lock up and release large sums of money, while the government's deposits in national banks and withdrawals from national banks greatly affect the monetary circulation, and the condition of the money market. Inasmuch as the decision with reference to the proportion of the federal funds to be kept on deposit from time to time in national banks and the proportion to be held in subtreasury vaults is left to the discretion of the Secretary of the Treasury, and as the policies of the different Secretaries of the Treasury vary greatly, 6 any very regular seasonal tendencies in the «There is an error in curve " C " on Chart XLV, the average amount of federal funds in depositary banks for January (1890-1908) being $73,000,000 as stated in Table XIX, and not $78,300,000 as plotted on the Chart. & Cf. Andrew, The Treasury and the Banks under Secretary Shaw, Quart. Journ. Econ., XXI, pp. 519 ff.; and Dewey, Financial History of the United States, pp. 417-418; also Annual Reports of the Secretary of the Treasury for the years 1890-1908. matter of subtreasury holdings and federal deposits in national banks are not to be expected. The seasonal variations in such deposits and subtreasury holdings are more matters of personal judgment on the part of the Secretary of the Treasury than of economic law. There are at work, however, economic forces which tend to bring about some regularity. Customs receipts, for example, tend to be large in January, March, and August. 0 The first half of the year being the less active half, deposits of lawful money by national banks to retire their circulating notes are generally greater in amount for the months from January to July than for the other months of the year. 6 Greater pressure for large deposits of federal moneys in national banks is liable to be brought in the fall than in the spring or summer. The purchase of United States bonds by the Government in t h e o p e n m a r k e t a n d t h e a n t i c i p a t i n g of i n t e r e s t p a y 's Through the courtesy of Mr. C. D. Hilles, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, the writer has been furnished with a table showing the customs receipts of the United States Government by months, from July 1, 1890, to May 31, 1910. The figures, it is explained, were made up from preliminary reports, and differ slightly from the annual totals, which are compiled from completed returns. The seasonal tendencies with reference to customs receipts may be seen from the following facts based on these figures. For the nineteen years, 1891-1909, the average customs receipts by months were as follows: January , $20,449,000 February 18, 749,000 March 20,619,000 April 18, 652,000 May 17,828,000 June 19,135,000 July 19, 753,000 August 20,099,000 September 19, 684,000 October 19,602,000 November 17, 722,000 December 18,532,000 The grouping of the highest, second highest, lowest, and second lowest monthly receipts by months for the nineteen years is as follows: Month. Highest. Second highest. Lowest. Second lowest. January... February.. March April May June July August September. October.... November. December.. Total January, March, and August appear to be the months of largest customs receipts, while May and November appear to be the months of smallest receipts. Similar figures are not obtainable for internal-revenue receipts. & This statement is made on the authority of the Treasurer of the United States. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 155 CHART XLIV. f i 1 1 1 // 1 J no 1 •" # t 1 \ \ i i i J CO \\ \ \ \ / i / IT 1 / 1/ / // / / // \ / ~T 1 1 1 I so / J 40 1 1, 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 t i i i i J SO 1 1< & y ^ ^ 1 I 1t 1 1 1 10 to i 1 1 1 // // / / / // i V 1 A- Average flmounh afNef Balance. 8 Average Index Numbers of Net Fa/once m.s\ , \ r- ;<?AO\ \ / \ 7 \\ f \ \ \ ¥ V -5 § \ SEASONAL \ VARIATIONS \\ \ in the NET BALANCE OF PUBLIC MONEYS 1 kI x I N / \ of the \\ / UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT. / \\ \\ \\ J I8SA ISGA \ t8W~ff03. \ tisA \ \ /?. A Q 1 ^ \ 5 i»^^ / MM l<T4.o\ \\ /t / \\ / - ' \ \ \ \\ ^ £ ments in the public debt are more liable to take place in the fall when the crop-moving demands are being felt. a Bearing these facts in mind we may proceed to the consideration of seasonal variations in the total money in circulation. i . 1 m-s\ $ 4 4 4 Monflk Starting at a low level in January the circulation continues low through February and March. The average circulations for these three months respectively, were $2,046,400,000, $2,046,700,000, and $2,044,400,000, the average index numbers being, respectively, 21.4, 22.6, and 19.4. The index number for March was lower than TABLE XIX.—Seasonal variations in the net balance of public moneys that for January in ten years and higher in nine years. in Treasury offices of the United States and in federal depositary banks—A reference to the figures for the individual years will Averagefiguresfor the period 1890-1908 fi show that the tendency during these three months is for the circulation to be relatively low and constant. [Amounts expressed in millions of dollars.] In January the Government's net balances average lower than for any other month of the year. The averIn depositaryIn Treasury offices. Total. banks. age January balance for the nineteen years (1890-1908) Month. was $184,300,000, and the average index number was 44.9. Average Average Average Average Average Average index index amount. index amount. number. These aiverages, however, are made up of such widely amount. number. number. varying figures for the individual years that one can January... hardly infer from them that there is any seasonal tend111.3 39.6 73.0 42.4 184.3 44.9 February.. 115.9 44.4 72.3 44.1 188.2 49.4 ency toward low Treasury balances in January. Of the March 123.3 59.9 71.7 43.2 195.0 63.8 19 January index numbers 8 were above 75 (including April 122.1 56.9 72.3 43.9 194.4 62.2 May. five 100) and 9 were below 25 (including seven 0). 119.6 46.4 70.8 44.9 190.4 51.5 June 127.5 69.5 66.3 24.0 193.8 65.0 The average net balance increased to $195,000,000 for July 130.9 80.4 63.8 16.4 194.7 67.5 March, the average index number for March being 63.8. August 126.8 68.8 63.7 25.8 190.5 51.4 Although the evidence does not point to a regular tendSeptember. 124.3 67.2 65.9 26.7 190.2 51.3 October.... 116.9 52.3 70.9 34.0 187.8 49.5 ency to advance at this time, the March balance being November. 111.8 39.8 74.4 40.0 186.2 45.4 higher than the January balance in nine years and lower December. 111.2 37.6 76.4 43.3 187.6 50.1 in ten, it does point to a tendency for the balance to be a This statement is made on the authority of the Treasurer of the United States. relatively high in March. Fifteen of the March index *> Figures by months for the individual years 1890-1908 are given in Table 19 of the Appendix (pp. 391-394). numbers were above 25, of which 10 were above 75. CHART XLV. SEASONAL VARIATIONS in the NET BALANCE or PUBLIC in — ° s— TREASURY OFFICES JOO Average Amounts In Treasuru Offices. A— MONEYS Average Amounis in DeposifarLj c~- GOVERNMENT -o Average index Numbers and in V Amounts in Treasuru offhe UNITED STATES average index Numbers of *1324\J Offices Banks. of Amounts in DeposifarLj Banks. k FEDERftL DEFOSI TARY BAIv/cs. 1810-'1108. i3&s\ • I 80 V 60 \ ./ ffS.S\ I' i 4 SO c , />< 40 '^^^ , <-'•"•-' *"" \\ \ S ~~"*—* - — ~ » H ^.-*'''*' \ l \ s \ y \ 30 0 >B / tooA 13A sss\ s \ / \ c 20 t \ Xx ^ N • * - < ' 7S.o\ — " " ^s'' ^ /O 70S\ y* \ .... ^-" O \A. Wonlk. .t (156) 4 ^ .. =t I _£_ * \ \ 1 4 \ ;fbM SEASONAL DEMAND FO Let us consider next the amounts of these federal funds kept in Treasury offices and the amounts kept on deposit in national banks during these three months. The January balances in Treasury offices are comparatively low. For January the average index number was 39.6, the lowest of any month except December; the average amount for January was $111,300,000, likewise the lowest of any month except December. In January there were five index numbers above 75, of which two were 100, while there were seven below 25, of which six were 0. The averages are thus made up of such extreme and widely varying figures, that the evidence for low balances in January can hardly be considered very strong despite the low average figures for the month. The evidence for an increase in the balances in Treasury offices from February to March is more substantial. The average index number advanced from 39.6 in January to 59.9 in March and the average balance from $111,300,000 to $123,300,000. In fourteen of the nineteen years the figures for March were higher than those for January. March had seventeen index numbers above 30 of which nine were above 75. January had ten above 30 of which five were above 75. Of January's nine index numbers below 30 six were 0, of March's two below 30 the lower was 6.7. Average deposits of federal funds in depository banks for January are moderately high, the average index number being 42.4 (the maximum for the year being 44.9 in June, and the minimum being 16.4 in July). The average amount for January is $73,000,000, which is the third largest monthly average for the period. These averages are, however, made up of such widely varying and extreme figures that they have no value as evidence of a tendency for moderately large deposits in January. In fact a study of the January figures for individual years seems to warrant but one conclusion, i. e., that the relative amounts of January deposits, as compared with those for other months, show no uniformity whatever. In six of the nineteen years the maximum deposits for the year were in January, and in four years the minimum deposits were in January. January had seven index numbers above 75 and eleven below 25. There was only one January index number between 25 and 75. The only positive conclusion, therefore, which the figures seem to justify for January, is that it is a month of very high or very low deposits as compared with the rest of the year. The average index numbers for federal deposits in national banks and the average amounts remain fairly constant until the end of May, the average index numbers for the first five months of the year being, respectively, 42.4, 44.1, 43.2, 43.9, and 44.9; and the average amounts being (in millions) $73.0, $72.3, $71.7, $72.3, and $70.8. W h a t has been said, however, in regard to the inconclusive character of the evidence afforded by the "averages" for January, applies also with considerable force to the average figures for February, March, April, and May. Of the nineteen February index numbers six were above MONEY AND CAPITAL. 157 75 and eight were below 25, showing that the average was made up largely of widely varying figures; for March six of the index numbers were above 75 and nine were below 25; for April five were above 75 and nine were below 25, and for May four were above 75 and five were below 25. With the exception of May, therefore, for which the bulk of the index numbers are neither u h i g h " (above 75) nor " l o w " (below 25), one can draw no inference in support of a seasonal tendency for these months. There is an upward movement in the total circulation from March to May, the average amount advancing from $2,044,400,000 to $2,059,900,000 and the average index number from 19.4 to 31.9. In fourteen of the nineteen years the circulation for May was larger than that for March. May had seven index numbers above 35, of which five were above 50. March had three above 35, the lowest of which was 57.4. The tendency for the circulation to increase at this time is accordingly moderate. The average net balance of public moneys continues high in April, but falls off somewhat in May. The average amount, which was $195,000,000 for March and $194,400,000 for April, fell to $190,400,000 for May, the average index numbers for the three months, respectively, being 63.8, 62.2, and 51.5. For May the balance was lower than for March in eleven of the nineteen years and it was the same for the two months in one year. a March had ten index numbers above 75, April had seven, and May had four. The downward tendency in May is therefore not a very pronounced one. A small tendency to decline in April and May is shown by the average figures for the net balance of public moneys in Treasury offices. The average amount fell from $123,300,000 in March, to $122,100,000 for April, and $119,600,000 for May, the average index numbers for these three months, respectively, being 59.9,56.9, and 46.4. March had two index numbers below 25, neither of which was 0, May had five below 25, four of which were 0. Inasmuch as May was lower than March in twelve years and higher in seven, such small changes in the averages can not be considered of much significance. The figures for federal balances in national banks in April and May were discussed above. From May to July the average amount of money in circulation declines. The average circulation for May was $2,059,900,000 and for July $2,053,800,000; the average index number declined from 31.9 for May to 27.3 for June and to 25.3 for July. May had five index numbers below 20 and July had nine. This downward movement is not regular, inasmuch as the decline took place in only ten of the nineteen years. The average net balance of public moneys increases from May to July. I t was $190,400,000 for May and $194,700,000 for July; the average index number rising from 51.5 for May to 65 for June and 67.5 for July. a I n May, 1904, the index number dropped to 56.1 from 92.5 in April, largely as a result of a payment of $50,000,000 out of the Treasury on account of the Panama Canal. NATIONAL MONErTARY COMMISSION. 158 I n thirteen of the nineteen years the net balance was higher in July than in May. Eleven index numbers above 50 occurred in May, of which four were above 75, as compared with fifteen occurring in July, of which nine were above 75. The maximum balance for the year occurred three times in July and not once in May. A moderate tendency for an increase from May to July therefore seems to be shown by the evidence. The most pronounced advance during the year, shown by the chart for Treasury holdings of cash, is from May to July, July being clearly the month of maximum holdings. For May the average index number was 46.4 and the average amount was $119,600,000; for July the average index number was 80.4 and the average amount was $130,900,000. In sixteen of the nineteen years July was higher than May. July had fourteen index numbers above 75, of which five were 100; May had only three above 75, the highest being 93.9. May, on the other hand, had five index numbers below 25, of which four were 0, while the lowest July index number was 24.4. The evidence is accordingly strong for large Treasury holdings of cash in July. Federal deposits in national banks show a pronounced downward tendency from May to July in the average figures, which is substantiated by a study of the individual years. The average index number of federal deposits in national banks declined from 44.9 in May to 24.0 in June and to 16.4 in July; the corresponding average amounts were, respectively, $70,800,000, $66,300,000, and $63,800,000. The July average index number is by far the lowest for the year. I n sixteen of the nineteen years the June balances were lower than the May balances, in fifteen years the July balances were lower than the May balances, and in twelve years the July balances were lower than the June balances. May had four index numbers above 75 and five below 25, June had one above 75 and nine below 25, July had none above 75 and fourteen below 25. We may therefore conclude that there is strong evidence for a decline in June and July to the lowest point in the year. I t appears therefore to have been the policy of the Treasury Department during these months of high balances, to accumulate cash in the subtreasury offices and to keep down the deposits in national banks. The summer months we have found to be the months in which the public's demand for money is smallest; they are months, moreover, during which the existence of superfluous cash in the New York b a n k s 0 and the consequent low interest rates 6 are liable to lead to excessive speculation. 0 The total monetary circulation increases from July to December. For July the average circulation was $2,053,800,000 and for December it was $2,132,800,000. The average index number rose from 25.3 for July to a Cf. Chart IV. & Cf. Charts I, II, and III, and p. 29. cCf. Charts LII to LXXIX, and pp. 213-215. 88.8 for December, each month of the period showing an increase over the month preceding. I n seventeen of the nineteen years the circulation in December was larger than in July. The highest index number in July was 73.5 and there were only three index numbers in July above 50. For December only two of the index numbers were below 80, while the maximum circulation of the year was found in December in fourteen of the nineteen years. The net balance of public moneys as evidenced by average monthly figures declines from July to the end of the year, with the exception of a small advance in December which is of little importance, for there was an increase in December over November in only ten of the nineteen years. Comparing July with November, we find t h a t the average balance fell from $194,700,000 to $186,200,000 and the average index number from 67.5 to 45.4, a decline taking place each month from the month preceding. I n thirteen of the nineteen years the net balance was lower in November than in July. July had fifteen index numbers above 50, of which nine were above 75 (including three 100); November had nine index numbers above 50, of which six were above 75 (including one 100). J u l y had two below 25, neither of which was a 0, while November had eight below 25, two of which were 0. The tendency for the net balance of public moneys to decrease during the second half of the year is therefore only a moderate one. The Treasurer of the United States writes t h a t " t h e deposits of the ordinary revenues of the government generally are greater in the months from January to July than in the other months of the year, while the expenditures are less," t h a t for the period 18901908 " t h e proceeds of bond sales were deposited in the Treasury oftener in the months from February to J u l y than in the other months of the y e a r " and " t h e deposits of lawful money by national banks to retire their circulating notes are generally greater in amount for the months from January to July than in other months of the year." These deposits are covered into the Treasury as a "miscellaneous receipt." The average net balance of public moneys in treasury offices which reaches its maximum in July, falls continuously from t h a t month to December, the greatest declines taking place in October and November—the two heaviest crop-moving months. This decline in the average net balance took place in every month from the month preceding. The average balance fell from $130,900,000 for July to $111,200,000 for December, the average index number falling from 80.4 to 37.6. Both as regards average index numbers and average amounts the decline from July to December is a decline from the maximum pf the year to the minimum. I n fifteen of the nineteen years December was lower than July. July had fourteen index numbers above 75 and one below 25; December had four above 75 and nine below 25. I n no year were the minimum holdings for the year found in July, while in five years they were found in December. Of the fifty- SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. seven monthly index numbers occurring in the three months June, July, and August of the nineteen years, fifty-one (including seven 100) were above 50, and of the thirty-eight occurring in November and December twenty-two (including eight 0) were below 50. The evidence for a decline from July to December, and for relatively low holdings in December, is accordingly strong. Beginning with August there is a continuous advance to the end of the year in the average amounts of federal public moneys on deposit in national banks. The average amount, which was $63,800,000 for July and $63,700,000 for August, rose each month thereafter until it reached $76,400,000 for December, the average index number rose from 16.4 for July to 43.3 for December. While the average figures (amounts and index numbers) advanced in October, November, and December, they were made up of widely varying individual figures. The first fact that strikes one in studying the annual figures for these three months is that the period (1890-1908) seems to divide itself into two parts; the first from 1890 to 1896, inclusive, and the second from 1897 to 1908, inclusive. During the first period the deposits for October, November, and December were very small except in the panic period of 1893. Exclusive of the year 1893, the maximum index number for October, November, and December, for the period 1890 to 1896, inclusive, was 15. Those eighteen months (again excluding 1893) had thirteen index numbers below 5, of which seven were 0. During this period we may conclude therefore that the relative deposits for October, November, and December were very low. From 1897 to 1908, while there were considerable variations from year to year, the evidence points clearly to relatively high deposits in October, November, and December, with the maximum in December. The average index numbers for these twelve years, for October, November, and December, respectively, were 43, 54.2, and 63. October had four index numbers above 75 (of which none were 100) and five below 25; November had six above 75, of which five (including one 100) were above 90, it had four below 25, of which three (including one 0) were below 5; December had seven index numbers (including six 100) above 75, and three (comprising two 0 and one 0.5) below 25. During the twelve-year period 1897-1908, in every year the October index number was higher than the September one; in eight years the November index number was higher than the October one, and in eight years the December index number was higher than t h a t for November. We may therefore conclude that for the period 1897 to 1908, inclusive, the evidence points to relatively high and increasing deposits for the last three months of the year. I t appears to have been the policy of the Treasury Department during these latter months of the year to aid the banks in meeting the crop-moving demand by 159 decreasing subtreasury holdings and increasing deposits in national banks. a I t must be concluded, therefore, that both our " presumably elastic money" (gold and national-bank notes) and our " presumably inelastic money" (all other kinds of money) show little evidence of seasonal elasticity except for the fact that the year's normal increase for all of them takes place primarily in the fall and early winter when it is needed most. None of them exhibit any considerable capacity to contract during the slack months of the year. Of the three, gold is the most elastic and national-bank notes the least, showing even less capacity to contract than the " presumably inelastic money." CHAPTER VII.—SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE CIRCULATION OF DEPOSIT CURRENCY. In the last chapter seasonal variations in the amount of money in circulation were considered; in the present one the subject to be investigated is seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency, or in the check circulation. The investigations of 1896 h and of 1909,c by Prof. David Kinley, show that during the period 18901908, covered by our study, something like 75 to 85 per cent of the country's business was conducted by means of checks. A large percentage d of the checks drawn passes through the clearing houses of the country, and the best evidence of seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency is probably to be found in the figures for bank clearings reported by the various clearing houses of the country. While the percentage of checks used which passes through the clearing houses probably changes from time to time, and while it seems reasonable to expect that as our credit mechanism becomes perfected a larger percentage passes through the clearing houses, we have no satisfactory evidence upon this point. Such changes, if they are taking place, probably amount to little in the course of a single year, and I see no reason to believe that there is any seasonal variation in the proo As early as 1890 the Commercial and Financial Chronicle said, editorially (LI, p. 764): "We doubt very much the wisdom of the treasury holding a reserve fund to disburse at odd intervals when the banks need it; we think the influence of such a resource is not favorable to a conservative bank management. The time was when our banks provided beforehand for the fall trade, and so trimmed their sails, if we may be permitted to use the expression, through the summer months as to await a storm, by preparing themselves for the crop demand. Of late years they have looked to the Treasury wholly, and have gone through the summer trenching on their reserves regardless of any increased drain sure to come later." & Report of the Secretary of the Treasury, 1896, pp. 453-494; Kinley, Credit Instruments in Business Transactions, in Journ. Pol. Econ., V, p. 172; Kinley, Money, pp. 44, 108-114; and Kemmerer, Money and Prices, pp. 106, 107. c Kinley, The Use of Credit Instruments in Payments in the United States (Senate Doc. No. 399, 61st Cong., 2d sess., pp. 196-219). & Cf. Kemmerer, Money, etc., pp. 117-119. 160 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. portion of checks used which passes through the clearing houses. I t is probably safe to assume in a study of this kind that the proportion is fairly constant from month to month, and that taking each year as a unit the clearings are a reasonable criterion of the seasonal fluctuations in the circulation of deposit currency. They will be so interpreted in this chapter. The weekly clearings as given by the Commercial and Financial Chronicle for the nineteen years 1890-1908 have been compiled for the cities of New York, Chicago, St. Louis, New Orleans, and San Francisco, and for the United States as a whole. Figures for amounts and for index numbers are given in the tables and charts of this chapter. CHART XLVI. The different cities, beginning with New York, will be taken up in the customary order, moving from the East to the West, and the figures for the United States as a whole will be considered last. What then is the evidence concerning a more or less regular seasonal swing in the circulation of deposit currency, and do the seasonal movements in this circulation correspond to any degree to the seasonal movements in the relative demand for loanable capital discussed in chapters 2 and 3? N E W Y O R K CITY. (Charts XLVI and I-V, Tables XX and 20.) Ignoring minor fluctuations, we observe the following general seasonal movements in the circulation of deposit currency in New York City: SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. TABLE XX.—Seasonal variations in the weekly clearings of the United States and of certain representative cities. 161 Average figures, 1890-1908.a [ A m o u n t s expressed in millions of dollars.] Continental United States. New York. Chicago. St. L o u i s . N e w Orleans. San Francisco. M o n t h a n d week. Average amount. Jan.— i . l 979.2 947.9 802.0 '.4 740.1 652.6 520.1 1 Feb.~ Mar.— 9. 10. 11. 12. Apr.— 1 3 . I 14. 15. 16. 17. May— 1 8 . . 19. 20. 746.1 785. 6 667.6 670.7 824.0 793.4 793.0 761.0 015.0 860.5 :.2 644.7 506.8 728.7 627.9 582.1 681.1 651.2 721.8 657.1 530.8 594.7 517.6 561.9 508.7 543.1 473.3 .5 722.3 691.0 917.5 814.1 873.9 856.9 7 21. June—22.. 23.. 24. 25. July— 26.. 27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.—31.. 32.. 33.. 34.. Sept.—35.. 36.. 37.. 38.. 39.. Oct.— 4 0 . . 41.. 42 . 43 . Nov.—- 4 4 . 45. 46. 47. D e c - -48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 788.5 053.1 885.2 783.3 004.2 961.6 922.2 631.8 Average index number. Average amount. 5 64.8 5 62.5 6 58.3 5 44.2 6 52.8 5 39.6 5 33.0 619.1 6 55.3 6 40.8 6 43.2 32.3 34.4 50.7 46.1 48.3 44.5 70.8 54.9 50.2 34.7 22.1 42.9 34.8 28.7 40.7 36.3 41.1 32.3 21.6 30.2 21.9 26.1 21.2 26.3 19.2 40.6 45.6 39.7 65.1 53.5 57.6 55.2 61.6 52.1 76.6 58.6 51.3 72.3 68.8 64.3 35.0 6 1,237.5 6 1,253.6 6 1,224.7 6 1,140.0 61,190.5 6 1,084.1 6 1,004.8 6 944.0 5 1,165.7 6 1,067.9 6 1,119.7 1,042.3 1,051.4 1,135. 4 1,119.0 1.123.5 1.107.6 1,283.3 1,175. 4 1,123.4 1,011.8 908.1 1,039.4 967.8 938.7 1,013.9 991.5 1,034.6 970.2 924.6 962.7 910.6 948.0 931.1 956.8 880.7 1,033.6 1,058.7 1,066.1 1,135.2 1,094.1 1,132.3 1,144.0 1.140.7 1,077.6 1,283.9 1,177.0 1,107. 7 1,191.3 1,222.4 1,202.1 1,015.3 Average index number. 6 60.8 6 59.6 6 54.4 5 44.0 6 52.5 ft 38.4 6 32.1 6 22.6 6 51.5 6 38.2 6 42.7 33.1 35.5 48.0 42.9 46.7 43.3 67.3 52.7 #.0 34.1 21.4 37.9 31.1 25.8 35.4 33.1 35.6 26.6 21.1 27.9 20.8 25.9 23.9 29.0 19.2 38.6 44.3 36.9 59.0 46.4 49.6 50.1 54.2 45.3 65.7 55.6 48.1 65.2 63.5 Average amount. Average index number. Average amount. Average index number. Average amount. 136.4 137.9 135.9 126.1 129.6 126.6 125. 4 115.3 148.0 139.7 133.7 126.4 127.8 133.4 132.8 136.1 135.1 157.6 143.4 140.0 130.7 124.4 142.6 135.1 132.4 132.5 133.2 138.6 130.9 124.7 130.2 125.4 126.2 123.1 125.8 125.9 133.5 136.4 136.5 149.6 143.7 146.4 148.0 146.8 140.5 151.6 140.7 134.4 154.9 145.7 145.3 125.7 49.3 49.9 44.5 27.8 34.3 29.6 28.2 11.9 63.0 48.5 40.4 28.3 31.6 40.3 40.1 46.1 44.6 82.6 60.0 53.0 38.4 29.6 58.1 45.7 40.8 42.3 42.7 49.6 36.3 27.4 38.6 29.9 31.2 26.7 31.9 31.9 43.2 46.3 46.3 69.1 59.3 62.8 56.2 66.3 55.9 74.9 56.2 48.1 80.1 64.3 62.8 31.1 39.4 40.0 39.5 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.8 32.4 38.0 38.1 36.9 35.2 33.8 36.4 39.3 37.9 34.2 38.6 38.6 38.8 35.2 33.7 38.3 37.0 34.9 33.6 34.0 38.2 35.8 32.4 33.8 34.3 34.8 32.3 32.2 35.9 36.8 35.2 34.8 38.5 39.7 40.2 37.7 37.7 39.0 42.7 39.0 36.4 42.6 41.3 39.4 34.8 62.1 65.1 62.4 41.9 44.0 45.2 45.6 18.8 52.1 52.9 45.3 33.9 25.7 45.0 61.5 52.1 32.6 59.6 57.5 55.4 34.8 27.2 54.8 49.7 33.4 28.2 29.8 53.8 41.0 21.3 32.3 34.8 34.5 20.1 22.6 42.6 48.6 37.9 33.5 56.6 64.4 64.5 49.6 51.5 62.1 81.6 58.4 46.9 82.2 73.4 63.1 33.4 15.8 16.8 16.4 15.5 15.7 14.9 13.4 12.0 13.9 13.0 12.8 11.9 10.9 11.3 11.6 11.3 10.5 11.2 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.3 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.3 8.5 8.5 8.1 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.0 9.4 10.1 10.3 11.8 12.8 13.8 13.7 13.4 15.6 16.7 15.6 16.9 18.0 17.8 17.3 14.8 I a F i g u r e s b y weeks for t h e i n d i v i d u a l years 1890-1908 are given in T a b l e 20 of t h e A p p e n d i x ( p p . 394-412). 6 T h i s average covers o n l y eighteen y e a r s . c O n C h a r t L t h e i n d e x n u m b e r for t h i s week is incorrectly p l o t t e d t w o p o i n t s too low. d O n C h a r t X L I X t h e i n d e x n u m b e r for t h i s w e e k is incorrectly p l o t t e d as 71.2 i n s t e a d of 74.4. 16065°—II- -11 Average index number. 68.2 75.6 75.5 64.9 62.8 56.2 48.7 37.5 53.4 46.6 43.6 35.8 29.8 33.0 35.5 33.5 26.5 32.4 30.5 26.6 22.4 17.5 23.4 23.0 20.9 17.3 18.9 19.2 16.6 10.2 10.2 7.0 9.1 8.7 6.0 6.6 16.9 22.7 24.4 35.5 43.2 52.3 51.3 48.0 66.4 <*74.4 66.6 75.7 84.0 83.2 79.8 Average amount. 22.3 22.6 22.1 20.3 22.2 20.8 22.7 18.3 25.1 22.8 23.1 19.4 22.3 22.5 23.4 6 21.7 6 20.7 6 22.9 6 21.3 6 22.0 19.4 19.9 21.1 21.7 19.4 20.7 20.0 23.1 22.1 21.2 22.6 21.6 24.0 20.8 23.9 20.9 24.1 23.7 23.8 26.1 25.8 25.2 23.5 26.0 23.5 27.4 22.8 23.8 24.3 24.3 22.5 19.9 Average index number. 44.6 48.8 42.2 27.3 43.4 33.0 47.7 13.5 63.7 46.2 48.4 21.4 45.7 44.1 53.2 6 45.3 6 42.1 660.0 6 47.6 6 51.2 25.0 32.2 40.0 44.3 23.4 35.7 27.6 51.8 42.5 37.4 50.2 39.2 58.4 32.6 58.5 35.6 62.6 C53.6 57.4 c72.8 68.4 66.3 54.3 74.8 55.9 85.1 49.6 61.1 61.3 62.3 45.5 31.1 162 NATIONAL MONErTARY COMMISSION. January and February show a sharp decline, which is temporarily interrupted in the fifth week by the usual 11 1st of the month " advance,® the last of February (eighth week), being the lowest of any period of the year except the summer (twenty-second to thirty-sixth weeks). The average clearings fell from $1,237,500,000 for the first week to $944,000,000 for the eighth, the average index number falling at the same time from 60.8 to 22.6. I n every year but one (i. e., 1899, in which the difference was very slight) the clearings were smaller in the eighth week than in the first.6 I n the first week there were twelve index numbers above 50, including four above 75; in the eighth week there were only two above 50, of which none were above 75. The first week had one index number below 25 (i. e., 23.3 in 1908), as compared with nine for the eighth week, of which five were 0. A decline in the clearings from the first week to the eighth is therefore both pronounced and regular in its occurrence. This decline is an evidence of the adjustment of the deposit circulation to business demands. A reference to the various charts for the New York money market will show that January and February are normally months of declining and low demand for moneyed capitals Here, then, is our first evidence of an important contracting power in the circulating media at a time when contraction is desirable. The second movement to note is pronounced and regular in its occurrence but of minor importance because very temporary in character. I t is the great advance, apparently due to the demand for March 1 settlements, in the ninth week.** Average clearings rose from $944,000,000 for the eighth week to $1,165,700,000 for the ninth week, the average index number rising at the same time from 22.6 to 51.5. I n every one of the eighteen 6 years the clearings were larger in the ninth week than in the eighth. Call interest rates move upward from the seventh to the eleventh week. From the first of March until the middle of May the circulation of deposit currency fluctuates considerably at a • a First of the month settlements of wages, salaries, store accounts, dividends, interest, etc., tend to make clearings increase considerably the first week of each month, and this increase is liable to be especially important at the time of quarterly and semiannual settlements. Cf. supra, p. 28. & Satisfactory figures are not available for 1892. Cf. p. 396, note c. c Cf. Charts I-V and the discussions concerning them. ^On March 1 settlements of farmers, for annual rentals of farms, and for interest and installments of principal on farm mortgages, are liable to be made in many sections of the country, particularly in the Middle West. Dividends are payable about the first week of March on a number of important stocks, as for example, Baltimore and Ohio, common and preferred; Illinois Central; United States Steel, preferred; American Tobacco, common; American Cotton Oil, common; Amalgamated Copper; Pressed Steel Car; United Cigars; American Telegraph and Cable. Cf., Commercial and Financial Chronicle, Feb. 25, 1908, p. 459, for a list of stocks upon which dividends are payable about this time. Cf. infra pp. 163-165. « Satisfactory figures are not available for this period in 1892. moderate level, the average index numbers of clearings varying between 33.1 (twelfth week) and 67.3 (eighteenth week), and being largely between 40 and 50. Of the two hundred and twenty-five index numbers for the individual years (1890-1908) between the ninth and twentieth weeks, inclusive, one hundred and sixteen were between 33 and 67. The clearings of the twelfth week were lower than those of the ninth in thirteen of the eighteen years," while those of the eighteenth week were higher than those of the twelfth in eighteen of the nineteen years, the exceptional year being 1907. The sharp advance in the eighteenth week is apparently in response to May 1 settlements. This period from the first of March to the middle of May is one of moderately high interest rates and of comparatively low bank reserves. The evidence accordingly points to an adjustment of the circulation of deposit currency in New York City to meet the needs of the moderately active money marftet which ordinarily characterizes the spring months. Beginning about the middle of May (nineteenth week) there is a very pronounced and regular decline in the circulation of deposit currency extending until the 1st of June (twenty-second week), at which time the low level of the summer months is reached, and this continues, with minor fluctuations, until early in September. The aver- * age clearings fell from $1,283,300,000 for the eighteenth week to $908,100,000 for the twenty-second week, the average index number falling at the same time from 67.3 to 21.4. The clearings of the twenty-second week were less than those of the eighteenth week in every year but one (i. e., 1903). Fourteen of the nineteen index numbers in the eighteenth week were above 50, of which eight were above 75, while only one in the twenty-second week was above 50 (i. e., 68.4 in 1903); fourteen index numbers in the twenty-second week, on the other hand, were lower than the minimum of the eighteenth week (i. e., 28.9). From the twenty-second week to the thirty-sixth the average figures (amounts and index numbers) exhibit only minor fluctuations at a low level. Of the two hundred and eighty-five index numbers occurring in the period from the twenty-second to the thirty-sixth week, inclusive (for the nineteen years), two hundred and fifty-five were below 50, of which one hundred and eighty-one were below 34, and of these one hundred and six were below 20. Here again is an adjustment of the deposit circulation to the slack trade demands of the summer months. The next movement to note is the autumnal advance, which begins the fore part of September and reaches a high level about a month later. Average clearings rose from $880,700,000 for the thirty-sixth week to $1,135,200,000 for the fortieth, the average index number rising at the same time from 19.2 to 59. I n every year but one (i. e., 1908, in which the difference was o Satisfactory figures are not available for this period in 1892. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. slight) the clearings were much higher in the fortieth week than in the thirty-sixth. The thirty-sixth week had one index number above 50 (i. e., 55.8 in 1897), while the fortieth week had fourteen, of which four were above 75; the thirty-sixth week, on the other hand, had thirteen index numbers below 25, of which two were 0, while the fortieth week had only one below 25 (i. e., 16.9, in 1901). A strong and regularly occurring upward movement in the clearings at this time is accordingly shown by the evidence. From the fore part of October until the end of the year the average clearings fluctuate considerably at a high level, the forty-sixth week (about the middle of November) and the second and third weeks in December being the weeks of highest clearings." Probably because of the holidays the clearings for the last week in the year are low. Of the two hundred and twenty-eight index numbers occurring from the fortieth to the fifty-first weeks inclusive (for the nineteen years) one hundred and thirty were above 50, of which seventy-five were above 67 and of these twenty-five were above 85. This increase in the circulation of deposit currency for New York City corresponds closely with the movements in the relative demand for moneyed capital as shown by interest rates and bank reserves. The evidence offered by seasonal variations in the clearings for New York City therefore seems to justify the conclusion that deposit currency possesses for New York City a very high degree of elasticity, expanding and contracting with the increase and decrease in the relative demand for loanable capital. CHICAGO. Charts XLVII, VI, VII, and Tables XX, V, and 20.) Moving westward the next city to consider is Chicago. As might be expected the seasonal movements of the clearings for Chicago are very similar to those for New York City. A like parallelism, it will be remembered, was found for the figures of bank reserves for the two cities (pp. 30-35). The first movement to observe is the usual decline at the beginning of the year. Average clearings fell from $137,900,000 for the second week to $115,300,000 for the eighth, the average index number falling at the same time from 49.9 to 11.9. There was the usual temporary rise at the beginning of February. I n every one of the nineteen years the clearings were much smaller for the eighth week than for the second. Only two index numbers for the second week were below 25 (the lower being 20.9 in 1905); sixteen index numbers in the eighth week a The average clearings rose from $1,077,600,000 for the forty-fifth week to $1,283,900,000 for the forty-sixth, the average index number rising from 45.3 to 65.7. In sixteen of the nineteen years the clearings for the forty-sixth week were larger than for the forty-fifth. For the forty-eighth week the clearings were lower than for the forty-sixth in fourteen years; and for the forty-ninth week they were higher than the forty-eighth in fourteen years. 163 were lower than the minimum of the second week, and eight of the sixteen were 0. The eighth week is emphatically the week of lowest clearings of the year for Chicago, as it was one of the lowest for New York. January and the fore part of February were found to be a period of a comparatively weak money market in Chicago (pp. 31-33). The percentage of reserves to deposits, however, reached its high point for the period in the fifth week, three weeks earlier than the week of minimum clearings. In March there is a very sharp advance in the average clearings, followed by an almost equally sharp decline. The average amount rose from $115,300,000 for the eighth week to $148,000,000 for the ninth, and then fell to $126,400,000 for the twelfth; the corresponding average index numbers were. 11.9, 63, and 28.3. I n every one of the nineteen years the clearings for the ninth week were substantially higher than for the eighth. Whereas the maximum index number for the eighth week was 48.5 (1893) and there were sixteen index numbers for t h a t week below 25, of which eight were 0, the minimum index number for the ninth week was 34.1 (in 1890), and there were eleven index numbers for that week above 50, of which seven were above 75. The advance in the ninth week is accordingly very pronounced and very regular in its occurrence. Almost equally pronounced and regular is the subsequent decline to the twelfth week. In every, year but one (i. e., 1890) the clearings for the twelfth week were substantially less than for the ninth. Eleven index numbers for the twelfth week were below the minimum for the ninth week (34.1). I n the ninth week the percentage of reserves to deposits for Chicago banks falls to the lowest point of the year aside from the crop moving period, and then rises. Call interest rates in New York City advance from the seventh to the eleventh week and decline in the twelfth. Inquiries made of a number of bankers and other concerns which deal extensively in farm mortgages elicit the information that the large clearings which regularly take place about the first week in March are due primarily to sales of farms and to payments on mortgages. This is more particularly true in the Middle West. Two wellknown Chicago bankers state that the transfers of agricultural lands within the district clearing through Chicago explain this rise in clearings about the first week in March. Prof. M. S. Wildman, of Northwestern University, who has collected for me information on this subject from Chicago bankers, writes: An examination of the accounts of the Commercial National Bank shows a very marked rise in their own clearings during the first week of March, and this has been traced entirely to the activity of the accounts of their correspondents in Iowa and Wisconsin. The chief clerk is convinced that this activity of the country banks' business was occasioned almost entirely by the transfers of agricultural lands and the negotiations of loans upon such lands, together with the settlements of country merchants for spring goods, which no doubt is again attributable to settlements on the part of farmers who found themselves in funds as a result of their transactions. CHART XLVII. SEASONAL VARIATIONS CJO lss\ in the I 80 CIRCULATION or DEPOSIT CURRENCY no ,/4S\ CO so teS\ 40 /30 SO ns\ 2o I2o\ -Average Amounts of Cleanngs. to 'Average Index Numbers of IWeefa WqMJ January \ February \ (164) March is \ April \ 7.0 Mag June t Jul*/ fiuausf Clearings \Sepfernber^ 0cfo6er \N0vem6cr \Pecember Jan. \Weeki Wonfh^ SEASONAL DEMAND FOR, MONEY AND CAPITAL. The financial correspondent of one of the large life insurance companies in Lincoln, Nebr., writes: The 1st of March is of course the day of settlement for the majority of all land sales, and I would say seven-tenths of the loans made through this agency [ Life Insurance Company] is for the purpose of paying balance purchase price. While interest payments on farm mortgages in Nebraska are made in all months of the year, the 1st of March appears to be the commonest date. The president of a loan and investment company in Iowa writes, in reply to certain specific questions: I think it is safe to say that seven-eighths of the transfers of real estate, especially in farm property, in Iowa are made on March 1. I think fully 75 per cent of the interest payments on farm loans mature March i. * * * Many landlords require a cash payment of rent on March 1—fully 75 per cent. Nearly all farm leases expire March 1. About 75 per cent of the farm mortgages mature March 1. Treating this sharp increase in clearings in the ninth week as an isolated and minor movement, we may observe a general upward movement in the circulation of deposit currency from the first of March to about the first of May, this advance corresponding fairly closely with the strong spring demand for moneyed capital which was found to exist in New York and Chicago (Charts I -VII). The sharp increase in clearings in the eighteenth week is again probably due to first of the month settlements. The average clearing rose from $115,300,000 for the eighth week (about the 1st of March) to $157,600,000 for the eighteenth (fore part of May), the average index number rising from 11.9 to 82.6. This rise is from the minimum of the year to the maximum. In every one of the nineteen years the clearings for the eighteenth week were much higher than for the eighth. The maximum index number for the eighth week was 48.5; the minimum index number for the eighteenth week was 58.7. Sixteen index numbers for the eighth week were below 25, of which eight were 0; fourteen index numbers for the eighteenth week were above 75, of which four were 100. From the fore part of May until the 1st of June clearings in Chicago decline rapidly to the low level of the summer months, at which they continue, aside from two temporary advances (twenty-third and twenty-eighth weeks), until the beginning of the harvest demand. Average clearings fell from $157,600,000 for the eighteenth week (1st of May) to $124,400,000 for the twenty-second week (1st of June), the average index number falling at the same time from 82.6 to 29.6. The clearings for the twenty-second week were much smaller than for the eighteenth week in every year but one, (i. e., 1903, in which there was a slight increase). While the eighteenth week had fourteen index numbers above 75, of which four were 100, and its minimum index number was 58.7; the maximum index number for the twenty-second week was 72.3, and seventeen index numbers for t h a t week were below the minimum of the eighteenth week and nine were below 25. The decline at this time is therefore both pronounced and regular in its occurrence. As further evi- 165 dence of the relatively small circulation of deposit currency during the summer months, it may be said that the average index numbers of clearings for the different weeks from the twenty-second to the thirty-sixth, inclusive, ranged from 58.1 for the twenty-third week to 26.7 for the thirty-fourth, and that of the two hundred and eighty-five index numbers occurring from the twentysecond to the thirty-sixth week, inclusive, for the nineteen years two hundred and thirteen were below 50, of which one hundred and twenty-nine were below 34 and of these eighty-one were below 25. I n six of the nineteen years the minimum clearings for the year occurred during these fifteen weeks. The small circulation of deposit currency characteristic of the inactive summer months begins to be superseded about the 1st of September by the large circulation which characterizes the active fall and winter months. From the thirty-fourth week to the fortieth week average clearings rose from $123,100,000 to $149,600,000, and average index numbers from 26.7 to 69.1. There was a very substantial increase in clearings from the thirty-fourth to the fortieth week in every one of the nineteen years. Eleven index numbers for the fortieth week were larger than the maximum for the thirty-fourth week (i. e., 64.2, in 1890). Only one index number for the fortieth week was below 50 (i. e., 32.8, in 1896), and thirteen index numbers for the thirty-fourth week were below this minimum of the fortieth week. There is accordingly a strong tendency for the circulation of deposit currency to increase during September. The high level reached the fore part of October is maintained until the end of the year, except for sharp declines the latter part of November and the latter part of December, due in large part to the holidays occurring at those times. Of the two hundred and twenty-eight index numbers occurring from the fortieth to the fifty-first week, inclusive (for the nineteen years), one hundred and sixtynine were above 50, of which ninety-eight were above 67. This period of large circulation of deposit currency in Chicago corresponds closely to the period of heavy demand for loanable capital in that city already described (pp. 33-35). For Chicago, therefore, as for New York, the evidence points to a high degree of elasticity for deposit currency. ST. L O U I S . (Charts XLVIII, VIII, and IX, and Tables XX and 20.) A reference to the chart and tables showing seasonal variations in the weekly clearings in St. Louis will show that the monthly movement of clearings in that city are so pronounced and so regular in their occurrence as largely to obscure any more general seasonal swing that may exist. There is a very sharp rise in the average clearings at about the first week in nearly every month, followed shortly by an almost equally sharp decline. These monthly fluctuations, as shown by the average figures, are very regular in their occurrence from year to year, the CHART XLVXn. (166)* SEASONAL DEMAND FO , MONEY AND CAPITAL. important ones taking place in nearly every one of the nineteen years. Passing over these short-time fluctuations, which are largely due to first of the month settlements, we may observe signs of a more general seasonal swing, i. e., decline in January and February, advance until about April, then decline to the low "level" of the summer, advance from early September until October, and then numerous fluctuations at a high " l e v e l " until the end of the year—a seasonal swing which corresponds, very roughly, with that for the relative demand for moneyed capital in St. Louis shown on Chart I X (Curve "E"). The decline throughout January and February is very pronounced. For the second week the average clearings were $40,000,000, and for the eighth they were $32,400,000, the corresponding average index numbers being 65.1 and 18.8. In every one of the nineteen years the clearings for the eighth week were substantially lower than for the second. Sixteen index numbers for the second week were larger than the maximum of the eighth week (i. e., 51.4). The eighth week had twelve index numbers below 25, of which four were 0, while the second week had only one below 25 (i. e., 21.2). This decline is accordingly pronounced and regular in its occurrence. As evidence concerning the circulation of deposit currency in St. Louis at the time of the spring demand (March and April), compared with that of the slack summer months (July and August), we may perhaps best compare the index numbers of these periods for the individual years collectively. During the nineteen years there were one hundred and seventy-one weeks between the ninth week and seventeenth week, inclusive (March and April), and the same number between the twentyseventh and thirty-fifth, inclusive (July and August). For the March-April period fifteen of the index numbers were above 67, as compared with nine for the July-August period, and fifty-four were below 34, as compared with ninety-four for the July-August period, showing a tendency for clearings to rule lower during the summer months. For the one hundred and seventy-one weeks of the September-October period (thirty-sixth to forty-fourth week, inclusive) thirty-four index numbers were above 67 and thirty-four were below 34, and for the one hundred and fifty-two weeks of the November-December period (forty-fifth to fifty-second week, inclusive) eighty index numbers were above 67 and twenty-four were below 34. NEW ORLEANS. (Charts'* XLIX, X, XI, and Tables XX, and 20.) A reference to Chart X I and the discussion concerning it (pp. 40-45) will show that the variations in percentages of bank reserves to deposits, point to the following 167 general seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital in New Orleans: (1) A decline the fore part of January; (2) an advance from about the middle of January to the fore part of May, interrupted by a temporary decline from the fore part of February to about the first of March; (3) a decline from early May to about the first of June; (4) a continuation of the low level then reached until the fore part of August; (5) an advance from the fore part of August until the latter part of September; and (6) a high level from the latter part of September until the end of the year. Do the more general seasonal movements in the circulation of deposit currency, as evidenced by bank clearings, conform to any extent to these movements in the relative demand for moneyed capital ? The clearings for New Orleans show the following seasonal variations: There is a strong downward tendency from the middle of January until the beginning of the summer, interrupted by a sharp advance the first of March and by a temporary cessation of the decline in April and the fore part of May, The average clearings fell from $16,800,000 for the second week to $12,000,000 for the eighth week (last of February), the average index number falling at the same time from 75.6 to 37.5. In eighteen of the nineteen years the clearings were smaller for the eighth week than for the second. The second week had three index numbers below 50, of which the minimum was 38.8; the eighth week had eighteen below 50. The second week had thirteen index numbers above the maximum of the eighth week (i. e. ; 66.4). New Orleans, like the other cities studied, shows a considerable advance in the clearings the first week of March. 0 The average clearings rose from $12,000,000 for the eighth week to $13,900,000 for the ninth week, the average index number rising from 37.5 to 53.4. A rise took place in the ninth week in sixteen of the nineteen years. The eighth week had one index number above 50, while the ninth week had eleven. From the first of March to the first of June the clearings decline rapidly, with the exception of the temporary interruption shown by the chart for April and part of May. The average clearings fell from $13,900,000 for the ninth week to $9,300,000 for the twenty-second, the average index number falling from 53.4 to 17.5. For the eighth week six index numbers were below 34, for the ninth week two, and for the twenty-second week eighteen. Clearings rule very low from the beginning of June until the fore part of September, tending downward somewhat in June and July and reaching their lowest level of the year from the thirtieth to the thirty-sixth week (i. e., latter part of July to fore part of September). Of the one hundred and thirty-three index numbers for the weeks thirtieth to thirty-sixth, inclusive (1890-1908), one hundred and thirty-two were below 34, of which one hundred and twenty-four were below 20 and twenty-one were 0. «Cf. pp. 163-165. CHART XLIX. (168) SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. Comparing the fluctuations in the clearings for this entire period, January to August, inclusive, with the fluctuations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced by Chart X I (Curve "W), it is seen that from January until the fore part of May, while the general tendency of clearings is downward, the relative demand for moneyed capital is upward. Here, then, is apparent evidence of a failure of the circulation of deposit currency (as judged by clearings) to adjust itself to trade demands. With reference to this apparent lack of adjustment, however, it should be noted that this was a period of comparatively high domestic exchange rates in New Orleans on New York City (Chart X X V I and pp. 112-113),aperiod of considerable currency shipments to New York City from the Southern States (Chart X X X I I and pp. 125-129), that New Orleans bankers characterize it as a comparatively inactive period in the New Orleans money market, and that in our previous discussion of the New Orleans money market (p. 44) it was concluded that the apparent " h a r d e n i n g " of the New Orleans money market during these months as evidenced by decreasing percentages of bank reserves to deposits was probably due more to a decrease in the supply of cash resulting from shipments to New York, for temporary investment or for deposit at interest, than to an increase in the local demands for loanable capital. The general movements of deposit currency, as evidenced by clearings, and of the relative demand for loanable capital from the middle of May until the fore part of September, are in the same general direction. Beginning with the fore part of September there is a rapid increase in the circulation of deposit currency until the fore part of December, after which there is a decline until the end of the year. The average clearings rose from $8,100,000 for the thirty-fifth week to $18,000,000 for the forty-ninth week, and then fell to $14,800,000 for the fifty-second week; the corresponding average index numbers were 6, 84, and 59.8. This advance from the thirty-fifth week to the forty-ninth is accordingly an advance from the minimum of the year to the maximum. In every one of the nineteen years the clearings were much larger for the forty-ninth week than for the thirtyfifth. For the thirty-fifth week the maximum index number was 16.4, and fourteen index numbers in that week were below 10, of which five were 0. The minimum index number for the forty-ninth week, on the other hand, was 60.2, and fourteen index numbers in that week were above 75, of which nine (including three 100) were above 90. This movement is accordingly both very pronounced and very regular in its occurrence. I n every one of the nineteen years the clearings were lower for the fifty-second week than for the forty-ninth. The forty-ninth week had fourteen index numbers above 75, of which three were 100, while the fifty-second week had only two above 75, of which the higher was 80.4. This downward tendency at the end of the year is there- 169 fore of regular occurrence. I t is, in part at least, due to the number of holidays occurring at this time. An upward movement in the relative demand for moneyed capital in New Orleans was observed for September, followed by a strong demand until the fore part of December, after which a decline was found to begin. The general movements of the circulation of deposit currency and of the relative demand for loanable capital are thus similar for the last four months of the year. S A N FRANCISCO. (Charts L« and XIII, and Tables XX and 20.) I n studying the seasonal variations in the relative demand for loanable capital in San Francisco the following general movements were observed: 1. A January decline (p. 49). 2. An advance from the last of January to about the middle of March (p. 49). 3. An easier money market extending from about the middle of March until the latter part of April (pp. 49-50). 4. A comparatively strong market from the latter part of April to the latter part of June (pp. 49-50). 5. An easy market from the last of June to the last of September (p. 50). 6. A rapidly hardening market from the last of September until the latter part of November (p. 51). 7. An easier market from the latter part of November or fore part of December until the end of the year (p. 52), The minor variations in the clearings for San Francisco are frequent and pronounced, so that, like those for St. Louis (Chart X L V I I I ) , they obscure the more general seasonal movements. Without attempting to trace any parallelism in the minor movements between the demand for loanable capital and the circulation of deposit currency, we may observe a rough parallelism in the more general movements. Corresponding to the "easing u p " of the money market in January, clearings tend to decline throughout that month. The average clearings fell from $22,300,000 for the first week to $20,300,000 for the fourth, the average index number falling at the same time from 44.6 to 27.3. In fifteen of the nineteen years the clearings for the fourth week were smaller than for the first. From the last of January to the fore part of March clearings fluctuate considerably, but aside from the customary temporary decline in the eighth week b the general tendency (as shown by average figures) appears to be upward in harmony with the increasing demand for loanable capital at this time. The decline in average clearings from the ninth to the twelfth week is paralleled by a similar decline in the curve showing the relative demand for loanable capital (Curve " E , " Chart X I I I ) from the ninth to the thirteenth week. During April and most of May both the relative demand for loanable capital and <*Cf. note (c)p. 161. &Cf. pp. 163-165. C H A R T L. SEASONAL VARIATIONS 2<j.0\ in the CIRCULATION OF DEPOSIT CURRENCY as Evidenced bif WEEKLY SAN ns\ CLEARINGS FRANCISCO 2&0\ mo-tf08. 24£\ 2S.0\ 2fS\ 20.o\ /} Average Amounts of C/ear/nqs. 3 Average Index. Numbers &•£ \WeeAs\ S XfifonM^ Uanugrif I Februartf\ (170) to March Apr// i/unc Uu/i, SO 3S 1 /Joagsf \Sepfembcr\ 40 October ofC/ear/nqs, 45 )/Vovcm6cr So \ December sJon. \/7.o MsskA wentha SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. t h e clearings are moderately large. During the summer months and September they both tend to be moderately low, although clearings fluctuate so much from week to week during the latter part of this period and tend so strongly upward during the latter part of September that the parallelism here is not very pronounced. The money market " h a r d e n s " very much during October and the fore part of November and clearings tend upward at this time. One hundred and sixteen of the three hundred and four index numbers between the twentyfirst and thirty-sixth week, inclusive (1890-1908), were below 34 and only twenty-five were above 67; while from the thirty-seventh week to the forty-sixth, inclusive, there were one hundred and ninety index numbers, of which eighty-seven were above 67 and sixteen below 34. The evidence accordingly shows that San Francisco clearings tend to be relatively low in the summer and high in the fall. The latter part of November and the month of December show a weakening money market and declining clearings. There is, accordingly, a very rough correspondence between the general movements of the curve showing the relative demand for money in San Francisco and that showing average clearings. UNITED STATES. (Charts LI and I-V, and Tables XX and 20.) The seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency in the different representative cities have now been studied, and this chapter may be concluded by a consideration of those for the entire country. Upon looking at the Chart for the clearings of the United States as a whole, one is immediately struck by its close resemblance to that for New York City, a resemblance not surprising when one observes what a large part of the total clearings for the country is represented by those for New York City. For example, the average clearings for the first week of the year were $1,969,100,000 for continental United States and $1,237,500,000 for New York City alone. Ignoring minor fluctuations one may observe on Chart L I the same six principal seasonal movements which have been observed so frequently throughout this report, and which were first noted in the interest Charts I - I I I : First. There is a decline during the early weeks of the year (i. e., January, and frequently part of February). Average, clearings for continental United States fell from $1,969,100,000 for the first week to $1,520,100,000 for the eighth, the average index number falling at the same time from 64.8 to 19.1. In every year the clearings were smaller for the eighth week than for the first. The eighth week had twelve index numbers smaller than the minimum for the first week (i. e., 27), of which five were 0; the eighth week had one index number above 50, while the first week had fourteen. Second. Passing over the usual strong advance the first week in March which has been previously explained 171 (pp. 163-165) and which took place for the United States as a whole in every year, we observe as the second important seasonal movement the spring advance continuing until the fore part of May. The average clearings rose from $1,520,100,000 for the eighth week to $2,015,000,000 for the eighteenth, the average index number rising from 19.1 to 70.8. In every year the clearings were much larger for the eighteenth week than for the eighth. Whereas the latter had one index number (out of eighteen) above 45 the former had seventeen. Third. The decline in clearings to the low summer level takes place about the latter part of May. Average clearings fell from $2,015,000,000 for the eighteenth week to $1,506,800,000 for the twenty-second, the average index number falling at the same time from 70.8 to 22.1. I n all of the nineteen years but one (i. e., 1903) clearings were much smaller for the twenty-second week than for the eighteenth. The eighteenth week had fifteen index numbers above 50, of which eight were above 75, while the twenty-second week had only two above 50, of which the higher was 73. On the other hand, the twenty-second week had fifteen index numbers lower than the minimum of the eighteenth week (i. e., 33.1). Fourth. Clearings, like interest rates, rule low during the summer. Of the two hundred and eighty-five index numbers from the twenty-second to the thirty-sixth week, inclusive (1890-1908), two hundred and forty-six were below 50, of which one hundred and twenty-four were below 25 and nine were 0. In the summer, therefore, when bank reserves are high and business is slack, the circulation of deposit currency is relatively small. Fifth. Beginning with early September the circulation of deposit currency increases rapidly until the fore part of October. Average clearings rose from $1,473,300,000 for the thirty-sixth week to $1,917,500,000 for the fortieth week, the average index number rising from 19.2 to 65.1. I n every year but one (i. e., 1908, in which the decline was very slight) the clearings for the fortieth week were much larger than for the thirty-sixth. The maximum index number for the thirty-sixth week w^as 54.8, and thirteen index numbers for that week were below 25, of which eight were below 10; the minimum index number for the fortieth week was 22.7, and fourteen index numbers for that week were above 50, of which seven were above 75. This early autumn increase is accordingly both pronounced and regular in its occurrence. Sixth. From early October until near a the end of the year the circulation of deposit currency continues high, though fluctuating considerable from week to week. Of the two hundred and twenty-eight index numbers occurring from the fortieth to the fifty-first week, inclusive (1890-1908), one hundred and forty-five were above 50, of which one hundred were above 67 and of these, seventy-two were above 75. Only twenty-three were below 34. I n the fall and early winter, therefore, when «Weekly clearings are liable to be low in weeks containing holidays upon which the banks and clearing-houses are closed. CHART LI. (172) SEASONAL DEMAND FO t h e demand for cash is great and bank reserves throughout the country are low, deposit circulation is large. The conclusion of this chapter is that deposit currency exhibits a high degree of seasonal elasticity, expanding and contracting in accordance with variations in trade demands. I t is the one truly elastic element among our media of exchange. I n some cities like New York and Chicago, the general movement of the curves for the circulation of deposit currency follows fairly closely those for the relative demand for loanable capital; in other cities, like St. Louis and San Francisco, the parallelism is not close, and the general movements of the curves for deposit currency are much obscured by the minor monthly movements. Even in these cities, however, there is a tendency for the general seasonal swings of the deposit currency circulation and of the relative demand for moneyed capital to be similar. Deposit circulation, as evidenced by clearings, is naturally mucJb, more responsive to minor and temporary forces (like first of the month settlements for example) than interest rates or bank reserves. CHAPTER V I I I . — S O M E ECONOMIC INFLUENCES OF SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE R E L A T I V E DEMAND FOR M O N E Y AND CAPITAL. The study of the extent and regularity of seasonal variations in the demand for money and capital has now been completed, and our final task, before summing up the conclusions of this report, is to inquire into the influence of these seasonal variations upon certain economic phenomena, such as prices, commercial failures, and financial panics. PRICES. On theoretical grounds it would be expected that a period of greatly increasing demand for money, like the crop-moving period in the fall, would tend to cause lower prices in the absence of a highly elastic currency; and that a period of greatly decreasing demand, like that of February or of midsummer, would tend to cause higher prices. In the fall months a greater burden of work is imposed upon the money in circulation, and, unless its rate of turnover increases, the same amount will not do the work except at a lower level of prices. This extra burden of exchange work is carried in part, we have seen, by the expansive power of deposit currency, but even deposit currency must be supported by cash reserves, and the need of cash for crop-moving purposes, which results in the westward and southward movement of reserve money, limits the expansive power of deposit currency. To meet the crop-moving demand for cash, banks accordingly- are compelled to curtail their loans and advance interest rates—both of which measures tend to force down the prices of securities and commodities, particularly those of a speculative character which are dealt in on the exchanges. The tendency is in the opposite direction in January and February after the crop- MONEY AND CAPITAL. 173 moving demand is over, and while currency is returning East for absorption in investment and speculation. Then cash piles up in bank tills, interest rates on call and short time loans decline, often to such a point that securities with very low interest or dividend yields afford substantial margins of profit. At such a time speculation is liable to be stimulated and prices tend to move upward. 0 S E A S O N A L V A R I A T I O N S I N T H E P R I C E S OF RAILROAD B O N D S . (Charts L I I - L X X I X , and Tables X X I , X X I I , and 21-47.) For the purpose of testing the truth of such reasoning as the above, figures have been collected for the weekly quotations of twenty-seven railroad bonds covering periods of years, respectively, from nine to nineteen. Bonds were selected in preference to stocks because in the case of bonds interest accumulations are certain and can be deducted from the quoted prices, while rates of dividend on stocks are generally uncertain until the time at which the dividends are declared. United States Government bonds were excluded because their ownership represents so largely permanent investments, and because of their privileges as security for national bank-note issues, and for federal deposits in national banks. Satisfactory quotations are not available during this period for most state and municipal bonds. 6 I t accordingly seemed best after consulting with a number of bankers and bond houses to limit the study at this time to railroad bonds. The method of selecting the bonds to be studied was as follows: Letters were written to a number of the principal bond houses in the country c explaining the object of the investigation and requesting suggestions as to the selection of bonds. The letter explained that it seemed a The year 1899 is a good example of such a seasonal swing. Cf. Comm. and Fin. Chron., L X V I I I , p p . 671 and 1204, and L X I X , p p . 1219 and 1271. &One of the leading American bond houses, N. W. Harris & Co., of New York, in suggesting a list of bonds suitable for this investigation writes, " * * * it is also suggested that perhaps it would be wise to include in the above list one or two active municipals such as New York City issues or possibly Boston's. You would encounter one great difficulty here, however, because even such active municipals as these are not quoted daily nor even with precise accuracy, and as a matter of fact t h e only source of information as to t h e prices at which the bonds ruled at any given time in the past would be the Commercial and Financial Chronicle, which, however, in many instances gives nominal quotations only. In other words, these issues are usually quoted on a " b a s i s / ' and it is impossible to get any line on actual transactions within such close limits as one-eighth or even one-quarter per cent, as is the case with issues quoted on the Stock Exchange, and, of course, these variations would b e very essential in an investigation such as * * * [you are] conducting, for, as a rule t h e fluctuations in money from day to day are often figured in tenths or less. I judge, therefore, that t h e better plan would b e to confine oneself to Stock Exchange issues where absolute accuracy is possible in regard to actual transactions." c In the preparation of this part of the report t h e writer is indebted to the following concerns and persons for valuable assistance: N. W. Harris & Co., New York City; N. W. Halsey & Co., New York City; Mr. John E ; Oldham, of Merrell, Oldham & Co., Boston; Spencer Trask & Co., New York City; Fisk & Robinson, New York City; and Thomas Gibson, New York City. 174 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. to the writer best to avoid both highly speculative bonds and very inactive investment bonds, and that those bonds seemed to be preferable which covered all or a large part of the nineteen years (1890-1908) embraced by the investigation, and which were reasonably active during all or a substantial part of the period. It was found difficult to find a considerable number of bonds that conformed to all these requirements, and the selection made should be considered as only a very rough approximation to the standard set. Nearly all of the various bond houses consulted recommended certain bonds as fairly representative for the purpose in view. All of the bonds which were recommended by two or more concerns were selected, and none were selected which were not recommended by some responsible bond house. Only part of the bonds which received but one recommendation were selected, and in these instances the bases of the selection were: (1) the strength of the recommendation, and (2) the degree of the bond's activity as shown by the amount sold in certain typical years. The bonds selected and the period covered by each are given below. Each bond is referred to, in the discussion which follows, by its number. The quotations used were those for Friday of each week as given in the Commercial and Financial Chronicled Accumulated interest was deducted from each quotation, so that the quotations represent what are commonly known as "and interest'' prices.5 Preference for quotations was shown in the following order, except in a few cases where there appeared to be good reasons for making exceptions to the rule. 1. Prices at which actual sales were made on Friday, or at an approximate date. 2. The mean between "bid" and "asked" quotations on Friday, or at an approximate date. 3. "Bid" quotations on Friday. 4. "Asked" quotations on Friday. 5. When no quotations were given for a particular week the mean between the quotations of near-by weeks was generally used. The bonds selected, which are designated in the Tables by numbers, and the period covered by each are as follows:0 a In a few instances quotations were secured from other sources and a few errors in the quotations as given in the Chronicle were corrected. &A bond price expresses the value of a bond in terms of money, and, viewed from the money side, it expresses the value of money in terms of the bond. High bond prices, for example, obviously mean that bonds are valuable in terms of money, and, equally, that money is cheap in terms of bonds. A study of seasonal fluctuations in bond prices represents therefore also a study of seasonal fluctuations in the value or purchasing power of money in terms of bonds, the value of money varying inversely as the price of bonds. This simple fact explains the title of the accompanying charts, " Seasonal Variations in the Value of Money as Evidenced by the Fluctuations in the Price of * * * Railroad Bonds." cThe prices used are those quoted each week in the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. Accumulated interest has been deducted. (For further explanation, see pp. 13-15.) 1. Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe adjustment gold fours of 1995: 1896-1908. 2. Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe general gold fours of 1995:: 1897-1908. 3. Baltimore and Ohio gold fours of 1948: 1900-1908. 4. Central Pacific first refunding gold fours of 1949: 1900-1908. 5. Central Railroad of New Jersey general gold fives of 1987: 1890-1908. 6. Chesapeake and Ohio general gold four-and-a-halfs of 19921 1893-1908. 7. Chicago, Burlington and Quincy (Nebraska extension) fours of 1927: 1890-1908. 8. Chicago, Milwaukee and St. Paul general gold fours of 1989: 1890-1908. 9. Denver and Rio Grande first consolidated gold fours of 1936:: 1890-1908. 10. Erie first consolidated gold fours prior lien of 1996: 1898-1908. 11. Hocking Valley first consolidated gold four-and-a-halfs of 1999: 1900-1908. 12. Iowa Central first gold fives of 1938: 1890-1908. 13. Long Island unified gold fours of 1949: 1900-1908. 14. Louisville and Nashville unified gold fours of 1940: 1898-1908. 15. Missouri, Kansas and Texas first gold fours of 1990: 1891-1908, 16. Missouri Pacific first consolidated gold sixes of 1920: 1890-1908. 17. Missouri Pacific, St. Louis, Iron Mountain and Southern general consolidated gold fives of 1931: 1894-1908. 18. New York Central and Hudson River gold three-and-a-halfs of 1997: 1899-1908. 19. New York Central and Hudson River (West Shore) first fours guaranteed of 2361: 1890-1908. 20. New York, Ontario and Western refunding first gold fours of 1992: 1893-1908. 21. Norfolk and Western first consolidated gold fours of 1996: 1897-1908. 22. Northern Pacific prior lien gold fours of 1997: 1897-1908. 23. St. Louis and San Francisco general gold fives of 1931: 18901908. 24. St. Louis and Southwestern first gold fours of 1989: 1892-1908. 25. Southern Railway first consolidated fives of 1994: 1895-1908. 26. Union Pacific land grant gold fours of 1947: 1899-1908. 27. Wabash first gold fives of 1939: 1890-1908. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 175 TABLE XXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years, ending 1908—Average figures.a B o n d 1 (1896-1908). B o n d 3 (1900-1908). B o n d 2 (1897-1908). Average i n d e x number. Average i n d e x number. B o n d 4 (1900-1908). Average i n d e x number. Average i n d e x number. M o n t h a n d week. Average price. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.- 9 10 11 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 10 17 May— 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J u l y - 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.— 44 45 46 47 D e c — 48 49 50 51 52 $78. 72 79.05 79.72 80.65 80.61 80.75 80.51 80.08 79.78 79.51 79.36 79.28 79.47 79.48 79.53 79.30 79.37 79.18 79.41 79.20 79.04 79.11 79.54 79.67 79.22 79.51 79.60 79.25 79.34 79.71 79.56 79.63 79.88 80.35 80.56 80.77 80.51 80.66 80.54 80.42 80.41 80.65 80.47 80.55 81.21 81.50 81.60 82.14 82.08 81.96 81.71 82.31 FluctuaPrice tions in fluctua- t h e value tions. of m o n e y . 38.6 40.1 48.0 59.0 55.6 56.0 53.1 49.8 47.8 45.3 44.8 45.3 46.3 46.8 48.1 45.4 46.2 42.4 44.4 42.5 39.3 40.9 43.5 44.2 41.7 45.0 45.6 44.0 45.4 49.5 48.8 46.4 52.3 56.7 56.5 60.0 57.7 58.8 57.1 55.8 55.4 58.3 60.1 55.4 57.1 59.1 60.4 63.7 60.8 58.8 57.0 63.6 61.4 59.9 52.0 41.0 44.4 44.0 46.9 50.2 52.2 54.7 55.2 54.7 53.7 53.2 51.9 54.6 53.8 57.6 55.6 57.5 60.7 59.1 56.5 55.8 58.3 55.0 54.4 56.0 54.6 50.5 51.2 53.6 47.7 43.3 43.5 40.0 42.3 41.2 42.9 44.2 44.6 41.7 39.9 44.6 42.9 40.9 39.6 36.3 39.2 41.2 43.0 36.4 Average price. $97. 40 97.82 97.94 98.19 98.53 98.27 98.16 97.73 97.70 97.48 97.69 97.65 97.78 97.85 97.80 97.55 97.80 97.66 97.50 97.71 98.09 98.51 98.58 98.52 98.52 98.53 98.61 98.68 98.67 98.60 98.46 98.49 98.50 98.47 98.44 98.57 98.43 98.50 98.57 98.52 98.09 98.51 98.36 98.29 98.56 98.42 98.25 98.76 98.95 98.72 98.52 99.00 FluctuaPrice tions in fluctuat e value tions. ofh m oney 40.2 47.3 48.4 53.8 61.1 56.5 54.1 48.0 44.8 44.5 52.0 52.5 53.7 54.2 50.5 47.9 50.3 49.9 44.9 46.6 52.5 59.8 59.6 60.2 59.4 58.8 63.6 62.7 61.5 57.3 51.6 52.2 55.1 55.6 56.7 *56.8 64.2 56.9 57.5 56.8 49.9 59.4 56.9 55.8 55.1 53.0 51.9 56.5 58.0 52.4 49.5 56.5 a T h e figures b y weeks for each y e a r are given in T a b l e s 21-47 of t h e A p p e n d i x ( p p . 413-510). 59.8 52.7 51.6 46.2 38.9 43.5 45.9 52.0 55.2 55.5 48.0 47.5 46.3 45.8 49.5 52.1 49.7 50.1 55.1 53.4 47.5 40.2 40.4 39.8 40.6 41.2 36.4 37.3 38.5 42.7 48.4 47.8 44.9 44.4 43.3 43.2 45.8 43.1 42.5 43.2 50.1 40.6 43.1 44.2 44.9 47.0 48.1 43.5 42.0 47.6 50.5 43.5 Average price. $100. 40 100. 63 101. 09 101. 24 101.13 101. 28 101. 01 100. 65 100.56 100.58 100.58 100.78 100.67 100.99 100.97 100.87 100.80 100.96 101.13 100.90 100.64 100.81 100.90 100.89 100.83 100.72 100.84 100.59 100.72 100.78 100.61 100.38 100.30 100.29 100.30 100.33 100.37 100.35 100.35 100.31 100.54 100.56 100.38 99.59 100.18 99.90 99.94 100.13 100.21 100.10 100. 27 100.59 Price fluctuations. 40.2 46.4 59.7 65.7 62.6 66.8 59.5 50.1 48.3 50.0 51.6 57.2 55.3 57.9 58.6 56.4 53.6 57.3 63.2 58.8 52.8 58.3 60.5 58.9 59.0 55.5 60.0 53.3 55.9 56.2 52.7 48.2 50.2 51.8 53.0 54.0 52.5 49.9 49.4 • 47.5 51.4 54.3 49.7 44.9 50.4 48.9 49.9 50.5 46.2 43.9 50.2 55.5 Fluctuations in t h e value of m o n e y . 59.8 53.6 40.3 34.3 37.4 33.2 40.5 49.9 51.7 50.0 48.4 42.8 44.7 42.1 41.4 43.6 46.4 42.7 36.8 41.2 47.2 41.7 39.5 41.1 41.0 44.5 40.0 46.7 44.1 43.8 47.3 51.8 49.8 48.2 47.0 46.0 47.5 50.1 50.6 52.5 48.6 45.7 50.3 55.1 49.6 51.1 50.1 49.5 53.8 56.1 49.8 44.5 Average price. $98.32 98.58 99.07 99.54 99.63 99.42 99.24 98.87 98.78 98.56 98.52 98.47 98.56 98.91 98.76 98.70 98.55 98.46 98.21 98.10 98.15 98.25 98.29 98.45 98.47 98.30 98.54 98.46 98.73 98.73 98.65 98.78 58.59 98.41 98.69 98.27 98.18 97.99 97.90 98.08 97.82 98.26 98.21 98.08 97.96 98. 02 98.23 98.22 98.43 98.41 98.27 98.28 Price fluctuations. 50.6 58.4 66.5 75.5 79.9 74.3 68.3 60.4 57.3 55.2 54.0 51.0 56.0 60.4 57.9 56.2 53.1 49.2 43.0 41.9 45.5 48.0 48.9 53.2 54.0 53.3 56.6 53.0 59.0 57.1 55.1 59.2 53.1 50.5 58.5 46.0 42.9 41.4 39.7 41.2 37.4 47.6 50.0 46.7 43.0 44.3 51.2 51.1 49.5 49.6 48.2 49.3 F o r m e t h e d of c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s , see p p . 13-15 a n d 22. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 176 TABLE XXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years, ending 1908—Average figures—Continued. B o n d 7 (1890-1908). B o n d 6 (1893-1908). B o n d 5 (1890-1908). Average i n d e x number. B o n d 8 (1890-1908). Average index number. Average i n d e x number. Average index number. Month and week. Average price. Jan.— 1 2 . 3 . 4. Feb.— 5 . 6 . 7 . Mar.— 9 . lft . 11 . 12. Apr.—13 . 14. 15. 16 . 17 . M a y - 18 . 19 . 20. 21 . June- -22 . 23 . 24 . 25 . July— 5 27 . 28. 29. 30. Aug.- - 3 1 . 32 . 33 . 34. Sept.- - 3 5 . 36 . 37 . 38. Oct.— 40 . 41 . 42. 43. N o v . -- 4 4 . 45. 46 . 47 . D e c - -48 . 50. 51. 52. $119.10 119.67 120.05 120. 24 120.62 120.80 120.83 120.33 120.41 120.06 120.10 119.87 119.61 119.75 119.70 119.57 119.62 119.74 119.50 119.28 119.40 119.59 119.69 119.81 119.86 119.89 120.15 119.87 119.83 119.71 119.46 119.49 119.53 119.54 119.86 119.49 119.47 119.49 119.25 119.41 119.39 119.59 119.50 119.57 119.48 119.34 119.03 119.26 119. 52 119.32 119.26 119.74 Price fluctuations. 43.2 51.1 56.6 59.8 64.8 67.8 68.5 61.3 62.3 57.4 59.0 55.8 53.7 55.2 53.5 50.9 51.7 55.3 50.7 46.4 48.3 51.4 53.4 55.2 55.6 55.3 59.0 54.4 54.6 52.7 50.2 52.2 51.7 52.0 56.7 50.7 49.0 51.5 47.9 49.6 49.0 51.8 50.8 51.3 47.8 47.2 41.8 46.6 48.5 45.0 45.0 52.6 Fluctuations in the v a l u e of money. 56.8 48.9 43.4 40.2 35.2 32.2 31.5 38.7 37.7 42.6 41.0 44.2 46.3 44.8 46.5 49.1 48.3 44.7 49.3 53.6 51.7 48.6 46.6 44.8 44.4 44.7 41.0 45.6 45.4 47.3 49.8 47.8 48.3 48.0 43.3 49.3 51.0 48.5 52.1 50.4 51.0 48.2 49.2 48.7 52.2 52.8 58.2 53.4 51.5 55.0 55.0 47.4 Average price. $91.05 91.63 91.72 92.06 92.47 92.45 92.56 92.19 92.11 92.02 91.91 91.67 92.19 92.45 92.44 92.27 92.18 92.17 92.43 92.14 92.27 92.29 92.53 92.64 92.56 92.16 92.30 92.02 91.88 91.59 91.80 92.04 91.87 91.92 93.07 93.18 93.00 93.18 92.86 92.66 92.37 92.35 92.72 92.53 92.66 92.43 92.30 92.67 93.19 92.59 91.70 92.41 Price fluctuations. 38.2 46.1 48.5 52.1 56.7 57.3 58,7 54.5 51.8 52.1 52.6 49.6 54.7 58.2 57.4 55.3 53.2 55.1 54.5 52.6 53.4 53.6 56.0 57.0 56.2 52.6 55.8 53.8 54.7 51.5 55.3 58.2 58.5 58.2 67.1 66.9 64.8 66.1 63.2 61.5 60.4 60.3 62.6 60.6 59.9 58.9 55.6 60.1 64.5 57.6 51.0 57.4 Fluctuations in the v a l u e of money. 61.8 53.9 51.5 47.9 43.3 42.7 41.3 45.5 48.2 47.9 47.4 50.4 45.3 41.8 42.6 44.7 46.8 44.9 45.5 47.4 46.6 46.4 44.0 43.0 43.8 47.4 44.2 46.2 45.3 48.5 44.7 41.8 41.5 41.8 32.9 33.1 35.2 33.9 36.8 38.5 39.6 39.7 37.4 39.4 40.1 41.1 44.4 39.9 35.5 42.4 49.0 42.6 Average price. $97.38 97.75 98.01 98.12 98.10 98.12 98.14 97.81 97.65 97.52 97.53 97.52 97.61 97.63 97.96 98.04 98.18 98.51 98.44 98.35 98.31 98.21 98.05 98.03 97.78 97.67 97.50 97.57 97.45 96.81 96.84 97.09 97.00 96.89 97.30 97.17 97.16 97.25 97.20 97.06 97.25 97.38 97.60 97.69 97.49 97.53 97.81 98.00 97.94 97.67 97.68 97.68 Price fluctuations. 54.2 59.8 64.2 65.8 65.2 64.6 65.1 60.4 57.7 57.0 56.8 56.8 59.2 59.4 64.5 64.3 68.5 71.3 67.6 66.1 66.6 63.9 62.0 61.4 57.6 55.2 51.9 56.2 55.1 48.1 48.2 49.8 47.6 47.0 51.3 50.0 49.2 50.5 50.9 48.6 52.4 52.6 56.2 56.7 53.8 55.8 58.9 61.2 61.2 56.5 56.6 56.5 Fluctuations in the v a l u e of money. 45.8 40.2 35.8 34.2 34.8 35.4 34.9 39.6 42.3 43.0 43.2 43.2 40.8 40.6 35.5 35.7 31.5 28.7 32.4 33.9 33.4 36.1 38.0 38.6 42.4 44.8 48.1 43.8 44.9 51.9 51.8 50.2 52.4 53.0 48.7 50.0 50.8 49.5 49.1 51.4 47.6 47.4 43.8 43.3 46.2 44.2 41.1 38.8 38.8 43.5 43.4 43.5 Average price. $100.69 100.98 101.26 101.39 101.64 101.57 101.60 101.45 101.10 101.29 101.09 101.01 100.94 101.07 101.08 101.31 101.15 101.08 101.16 101.07 100.90 100.81 101.01 101.16 101.12 100.85 100.87 100.81 101.03 100.91 100.74 100.64 100.52 100.82 100.53 100.94 100.61 100.74 100.44 100.10 100.43 100.45 100.50 100.63 100.93 100.31 100.47 100.56 100.95 100.86 100.74 100.90 Price fluctuations. 46.2 49.6 55.0 55.8 65.9 62.9 64.7 60.7 54.9 57.4 54.9 55.4 54.3 56.9 58.1 60.4 57.1 53.7 57.8 55.9 51.5 48.9 52.8 57.2 55.6 51.6 51.3 52.3 54.3 54.1 49.9 48.3 49.5 53.0 44.4 53.3 48.1 51.8 45.9 42.0 44.6 46.2 46.5 51.4 56.0 48.9 50.8 51.7 58.5 55.7 54.4 57.1 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 177 TABLE XXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years, ending 1908—Average figures—Continued. B o n d 10 (1898-1908).o B o n d 9 (1890-1908). B o n d 11 (1900-1908). Average i n d e x number. Average index number. Average index number. B o n d 12 (1890-1908). Average index number. Month and week. Average price. $90.72 90.99 91.35 91.82 91.81 91.79 91.66 91.03 91.18 90.88 90.53 90.71 90.99 90.98 91.19 91.19 91.21 91.28 91.44 91.08 91.26 91.34 91.26 91.59 91.32 91.18 91.05 90.68 90.98 90.88 90.75 91.11 91.17 91.39 91.68 91.63 91.68 91.28 91.30 91.01 91.14 90.81 91.13 91.07 90.95 91.31 91.24 91.84 91.76 91.90 91.68 91.29 Feb.— 5 . 6. 7 . 8. Mar.— 9. 10. 11. 12. Apr.— 1 3 . 14 . 15. 16. 17. May— 1 8 . 19.. 20.. 21.. J u n e — 22 . 23. 24. 25. J u l y — 26 . 27. 28.. 29.. 30. Aug.—31 . 32. 33 . 34. Sept.—35.. 36.. 3738.. 39.. Oct.— 40.. 41.. 42.. 43.. N o v . — 44.. 45 . 46 . 47.. D e c — 48 . . 49... 50.. 51.. 52.. Price fluctuations. 45.8 51.0 57.1 61.5 64.2 63.7 61.6 53.3 53.2 50.9 47.6 47.2 50.3 50.3 52.7 54.3 54.2 54.1 53.9 48.3 53.5 53.4 54.4 59.8 56.5 57.8 57.5 53.1 57.6 56.2 55.4 56.5 58.2 59.3 63.2 62.6 62.6 55.9 55.8 48.7 51.8 49.0 54.4 53.9 49.2 51.1 50.3 57.1 58.3 59.8 57.0 57.0 Fluctuations in the v a l u e of money. 54.2 49.0 42.9 38.5 35.8 36.3 38.4 46.7 46.8 49.1 52.4 52.8 49.7 49.7 47.3 45.7 45.8 45.9 46.1 51.7 46.5 46.6 45.6 40.2 43.5 42.2 42.5 46.9 42.4 43.8 44.6 43.5 41.8 40.7 36.8 37.4 37.4 44.1 44.2 51.3 48.2 51.0 45.6 46.1 50.8 48.9 49.7 42.9 41.7 40.2 43.0 43.0 Average price. $95.23 95.32 95.55 95.68 95.39 95.20 94.86 94.55 94.39 94.12 94.24 94.30 94.29 94.30 94.74 94.35 94.30 94.40 94.59 94.63 94.67 94.74 94.72 94.60 94.46 94.76 94.45 94.42 94.46 94.67 94.99 95.18 94.97 94.99 95.13 94.85 94.60 94.26 94.25 94.22 93.94 94.22 94.33 94.04 94.18 93.91 93.83 93.78 94.13 94.11 94.23 94.64 Price fluctuations. 60.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 65.0 60.3 54.6 50.9 47.4 44.8 46.0 48.0 48.2 50.6 58.9 52.3 51.1 51.5 52.1 52.3 55.3 58.4 57.6 57.8 57.0 63.8 55.7 53.8 54.9 58.0 61.1 64.5 60.0 60.5 64.7 60.1 53.6 48.8 48.4 45.7 42.3 48.3 51.0 50.7 51.6 56.0 48.7 46.8 48.5 47.4 48.2 57.4 Fluctuations in the v a l u e of money. 40.0 35.0 33.0 31.0 35.0 39.7 45.4 49.1 52.6 55.2 54.0 52.0 51.8 49.4 41.1 47.7 48.9 48.5 47.9 47.7 44.7 41.6 42.4 42.2 43.0 36.2 44.3 46.2 45.1 42.0 38.9 35.5 40.0 39.5 35.3 39.9 46.4 51.2 51.6 54.3 57.7 51.7 49.0 49.3 48.4 54.0 51.3 53.2 51.5 52.6 51.8 42.6 Average price. $104.81 104.97 105. 28 105.36 105.47 105. 22 105. 40 104. 96 105.10 104. 75 104. 66 104. 95 105.13 105. 31 105. 37 104. 87 105. 46 105.27 104.91 104.91 104. 92 104. 93 104.95 105. 20 104. 94 105. 62 105.10 105.06 105. 07 104.92 105. 30 105.17 104. 99 105. 00 105. 01 105. 01 104.83 104. 54 104. 48 104. 37 104. 60 104. 56 104. 53 104. 32 104. 33 104.50 104. 34 104. 61 104. 75 104. 62 104. 67 105.04 Price fluctuations. 44.5 46.6 52.8 54.2 57.1 53.6 56.8 49.3 50.0 45.1 43.0 48.4 52.8 54.0 55.8 46.2 56.5 53-0 44.4 45.9 45.3 47.2 48.8 53.5 50.3 61.2 53.4 53.4 51.6 49.0 53.3 51.5 48.6 49.6 52.3 52.9 50.0 44.5 43.0 41.6 46.1 45.0 45.3 42.6 42.7 46.2 45.3 49.7 50.1 46.6 46.5 52.8 Fluctuations in t h e v a l u e of money. Average price. 55.5 53.4 47.2 45.8 42.9 46.4 43.2 50.7 50.0 54.9 57.0 51.6 47.2 46.0 44.2 53.8 43.5 47.0 55.6 54.1 54.7 52.8 51.2 46.5 49.7 38.8 46.6 46.6 48.4 51.0 46.7 48.5 51.4 50.4 47.7 47.1 50.0 55.5 57.0 58.4 53.9 55.0 54.7 57.4 57.3 53.8 54.7 50.3 49.9 53.4 53.5 47.2 $100.81 100.71 100.80 101.26 101.11 100.92 101.00 100. 70 100.49 100.44 99.96 99.91 99.73 99.67 99.83 99.98 100. 29 100.38 100.88 100.42 100.64 100.97 100.56 100.60 100.62 100. 37 100.35 100.40 100.13 99.93 100.16 99.69 99.85 99.92 100.28 100.38 100.16 100.28 100.64 100.04 100.13 100.66 100. 64 100. 68 100. 66 100.98 101. 39 101. 74 101. 65 101. 78 101.15 101.46 Price fluctuations. 51.5 48.4 52.0 56.4 54.9 50.6 53.5 50.7 49.8 50.6 43.2 46.8 42.2 41.7 44.9 46.0 48.5 49.2 53.3 48.0 49.7 51.6 48.7 49.4 49.9 40.9 46.9 48.0 48.3 44.8 46.2 40.7 44.0 43.5 48.1 48.6 44.6 48.9 51.8 44.2 52.1 55.1 52.7 52.2 48.2 54.1 57.6 62.1 60.5 62.4 55.5 58.9 a T h e c u r v e s on C h a r t L X I i n a few cases d e v i a t e v e r y s l i g h t l y from t h e figures i n t h e T a b l e , d u e t o a few m i n o r corrections m a d e in t h e T a b l e after t h e C h a r t w a s completed. 16065°—11- -12 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 178 TABLE XXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years, ending 1908—Average figures—Continued. B o n d 13 (1900-1908). B o n d 14 (1898-1908). B o n d 15 (1891-1908). Average i n d e x number. Average i n d e x number. B o n d 16 (1890-1906). Average index number. Average i n d e x number. M o n t h a n d week. Average price. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 . . , 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 June—22 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 D e c . — 48 49 50 51 52 $94.60 94.57 94.20 94.13 94.48 94.43 94.66 94.67 95.43 94.94 95.07 94.47 94.99 94.36 94.68 94.32 95.55 96.40 96.42 98.13 97.93 97.55 97.47 97.45 97.50 97.75 97.39 97.35 97.21 97.23 97.06 95.99 96.50 96.02 96.76 96.91 96.53 95.98 95.85 95.55 95.64 95.56 96.06 96.32 96.64 96.63 96.68 96.87 96.95 96.36 96.00 95.41 FluctuaPrice tions in fluct t u a t i o n s . ofh emvoanleuye. 44.0 41.6 39.0 40.5 41.0 1 44.0 45.3 45.2 58.8 58.7 57.1 54.9 56.0 46.0 55.9 43.5 57.0 59.2 64.6 70.0 65.7 56.7 57.8 60.0 62.9 67.7 59.5 58.9 55.5 56.4 56.2 57.1 59.0 52.5 64.3 68.7 64.6 65.0 57.7 47.8 47.2 48.2 57.0 57.3 59.9 55.8 56.9 60.2 61.6 54.0 52.9 41.0 56.0 58.4 61.0 59.5 59.0 56.0 54.7 54.8 41.2 41.3 42.9 45.1 44.0 54.0 44.1 56.5 43.0 40.8 35.4 30.0 34.3 43.3 42.2 40.0 37.1 32.3 40.5 41.1 44.5 43.6 43.8 42.9 41.0 47.5 35.7 31.3 35.4 35.0 42.3 52.2 52.8 51.8 43.0 42.7 40.1 44.2 43.1 39.8 38.4 46.0 47.1 59.0 Average price. $98.34 98.60 98.63 98.92 98.90 98.98 98.62 98.26 98.13 97.83 97.76 97.62 97.79 98.08 97.99 97.95 98.36 98.80 98.60 98.54 98.65 98.64 98.74 98.69 98.79 98.86 98.85 98.88 98.75 98.81 99.16 99.00 98.74 98.75 98.52 98.40 98.35 98.19 98.35 98.25 98.26 98.33 98.10 98.13 98.35 98.34 98.55 98.64 99.10 99.13 99.01 99.20 FluctuaPrice tions in fluct tuations. he value of m o n e y . 47.5 49.9 51.3 60.1 57.0 56.6 51.0 44.9 42.0 39.9 37.4 41.4 43.4 47.8 47.5 48.6 52.7 60.2 52.6 54.9 52.8 53.4 55.2 57.7 59.8 62.1 60.1 61.8 57.3 58.2 59.8 58.8 53.5 55.0 52.2 50.4 49.6 45.4 48.6 44.5 42.0 45.3 42.0 42.3 41.8 43.3 50.4 50.3 57.0 58.2 56.0 57.8 52.5 50.1 48.7 39.9 43.0 43.4 49.0 1 55.1 58.0 60.1 62.6 58.6 56.6 52.2 ' 52.5 51.4 47.3 39.8 47.4 45.1 47.2 46.6 44.8 42.3 40.2 37.9 39.9 38.2 42.7 41.8 40.2 41.2 46.5 45.0 47.8 49.6 50.4 54.6 51.4 55.5 58.0 54.7 58.0 57.7 58.2 56.7 49.6 49.7 43.0 41.8 44.0 42.2 Average price. FluctuaPrice tions in fluct tuations. he value of m o n e y . $89.63 89.67 89.89 90. 20 90.21 90.36 90.16 1 89. 78 89.58 89.67 89.44 89.54 89.71 89.80 89.95 89.94 89.97 90.19 90. 34 90.29 90. 35 90.13 90.24 90.16 89.93 90.05 89.99 89.67 89.73 89.48 89. 45 89.79 89.82 89.78 89.86 90.21 89.78 89.68 89.50 89.58 89.46 89.62 89.73 89.63 90.05 90.25 90.19 90.63 90.65 90.34 89.91 90.27 ' 47.8 49.2 51.6 58.0 56.8 59.5 55.2 49.0 45.6 48.8 45.1 48.7 50.8 52.8 55.5 55.3 53.9 59.1 62.6 62.1 61.8 58.3 60.4 59.1 55.9 56.9 56.4 51.0 52.2 47.7 48.9 54.3 56.3 55.4 54.2 58.7 52.4 50.5 46.9 47.8 46.3 48.6 49.7 49.3 56.0 59.5 58.1 64.2 65.1 58.3 52.4 58.3 52.2 50.8 48.4 42.0 43.2 40.5 44.8 51.0 54.4 51.2 54.9 51.3 49.2 47.2 44.5 44.7 46.1 40.9 37.4 37.9 38.2 41.7 39.6 40.9 43.1 43.1 43.6 49.0 47.8 52.3 51.1 45.7 43.7 44.6 45.8 41.3 47.6 49.5 53.1 52.2 53.7 51.4 50.3 50.7 44.0 40.5 41.9 35.8 34.9 41.7 47.6 41.7 Average price. $108.31 108.95 108.47 109.09 108. 55 108.79 108.19 107.71 107.90 107.17 107. 52 107.75 107.90 107.80 107.80 107.96 108.23 108.37 108.23 107.99 107.45 107.63 107. 51 108.17 108.02 108.10 108. 26 108.15 108.10 108. 00 107. 81 108. 20 108. 52 108. 58 108.85 108. 70 108. 47 107.98 107. 44 107. 39 107.40 107.74 107.96 108. 52 109.11 108.61 108.38 107. 54 108. 39 108.43 108.32 108.04 FluctuaPrice tions in fluct tuations. he value of m o n e y . 50.4 57.7 55.9 59.6 58.2 60.2 56.4 51.5 52.6 51.7 53.3 53.3 55.8 57.5 58.9 57.9 60.6 58.5 59.8 57.3 50.6 51.3 52.4 54.7 55.0 54.2 55.0 53.1 52.9 51.0 52.3 54.1 58.9 59.0 60.5 58.1 57.7 54.3 47.8 50.6 52.2 54.8 55.6 57.2 60.1 59.2 57.3 50.4 55. 3 54.8 55.2 55.1 49.6 42.3 44.1 40.4 41.8 39.8 43.6 48.5 47.4 48.3 46.7 46.7 44.2 42.5 41.1 42.1 39.4 41.5 40.2 42.7 49.4 48.7 47.6 45.3 45.0 45.8 45.0 46.9 47.1 49.0 47.7 45.9 41.1 41.0 39.5 41.9 42.3 45.7 52.2 49.4 47.8 45.2 44.4 42.8 39.9 40.8 42.7 49.6 44.7 45.2 44.8 44.9 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 179 TABLE XXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years, ending 1908—Average figures—Continued. Average index number. B o n d 20 (1893-1908). B o n d 19 (1890-1908). B o n d 18 (1899-1908). B o n d 17 (1894-1908). Average i n d e x number. Average i n d e x number. Average index number. Month and week. Average price. Jan.— $99.99 100.34 100.44 100.66 101.06 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 . . 6 101.07 100.62 8 99.91 100.08 99.83 100.30 100.46 100.65 100.50 100.70 100.70 101.02 101.00 100.81 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 101.03 101.00 J u n e — 22 101.19 101.23 101.59 101.18 101.30 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 D e c — 48 49 50 51 52 * 101.20 101.15 101.11 101.28 101.53 101.34 101.27 101.62 101.79 101.95 102.02 101.97 102.41 103.22 102.46 102. 57 102.67 102.26 102.44 102.26 102.17 102.40 102.40 102.58 102. 08 102.48 Price fluctuations. 40.2 43.0 45.8 51.0 54.3 51.0 48.9 42.7 43.4 42.5 47.3 53.4 54.5 54.2 54.4 52.0 54.5 51.8 48.1 49.5 50.4 52.5 50.5 56.4 50.0 48.9 49.5 47.2 46.9 46.8 47.6 45.4 44.7 51.1 51.6 52.9 53.3 51.7 56.6 56.5 57.8 60.6 61.0 59.0 61.1 57.9 57.3 60.4 57.3 60.2 55.4 57.9 Fluctuations in t h e v a l u e of money. Average price. 59.8 57.0 54.2 49.0 45.7 49.0 51.1 57.3 56.6 57.5 52.7 46.6 45.5 45.8 45.6 48.0 45.5 48.2 51.9 50.5 49.6 47.5 49.5 43.6 50.0 51.1 50.5 52.8 53.1 53.2 52.4 54.6 55.3 48.9 48.4 47.1 46.7 48.3 43.4 43.5 42.2 39.4 39.0 41.0 38.9 42.1 42.7 39.6 42.7 39.8 44.6 42.1 $101.62 102. 05 102.10 102.27 102.08 101.45 101. 59 101.71 101.49 101.35 101.26 101.16 100.93 101.18 101.16 101.38 101.42 101.42 101.16 101.09 101.33 101.22 101.20 101. 00 101.38 101.21 100.87 100.56 100.56 100.43 100.47 99.94 99.98 99.82 99.88 99.90 99.65 99.55 99.71 99.87 99.85 100.13 99.99 99.74 99.47 99.30 99.53 99.79 99.86 99.88 99.84 99.79 Price fluctuations. 62.7 71.5 72.0 76.6 71.3 57.3 62.2 65.6 54.4 59.6 58.7 58.0 57.0 60.2 61.8 64.5 63.8 62.1 56.4 57.4 61.9 61.0 62.2 56.1 64.3 62.2 58.5 54.2 53.6 52.7 53.2 44.9 47.0 46.8 46.5 46.7 41.7 39.5 41.0 42.2 41.0 46.1 43.6 42.4 36.2 32.6 37.6 42.3 41.6 42.8 42.7 42.0 Fluctuations in t h e v a l u e of money. 37.3 28.5 28.0 23.4 28.7 42.7 37.8 34.4 45.6 40.4 41.3 42.0 43.0 39.8 38.2 35.5 36.2 37.9 43.6 42.6 38.1 39.0 37.8 43.9 35.7 37.8 41.5 45.8 46.4 47.3 46.8 55.1 53.0 53.2 53.5 53.3 58.3 60.5 59.0 57.8 59.0 53.9 56.4 57.6 63.8 67.4 62.4 57.7 58.4 57.2 57.3 58.0 Average price. $106.42 106.51 106.75 106.88 108.83 106.99 106.87 106.66 106.60 106.45 106.21 106.18 106.25 106.18 106.23 106.06 105.89 106.03 106.00 106.01 105.95 106.12 106.08 105. 88 106.57 106.42 106.28 106.11 106.14 105.88 105.82 105.83 105.81 105. 62 106. 08 105.97 105.87 105.80 105.49 105. 58 105.56 105.60 105. 87 105.65 105. 57 105.73 105.67 105.68 105.94 105.92 105.84 105.86 Price fluctuations. 57.7 60.8 65.6 68.9 67.8 72.2 69.4 64.6 63.7 61.5 55.7 57.0 58.8 57.8 57.7 56.0 52.5 55.2 54.6 53.5 51.7 56.4 53.8 64.2 64.8 62 9 58.6 56.7 58.2 55.9 53.1 54.1 53.6 50.9 59.0 56.3 53.8 53.1 46.7 48.5 49.1 48.5 52.1 47.2 47.9 51.8 52.7 49.7 54.8 55.7 55.1 54.7 Fluctuations in the value of money. 42.3 39.2 34.4 31.1 32.2 27.8 30.6 35.4 36.3 38.5 44.3 43.0 41.2 42.2 42.3 44.0 47.5 44.8 45.4 46.5 48.3 43.6 46.2 35.8 35.2 37.1 41.4 43.3 41.8 44.1 46.9 45.9 46.4 49.1 41.0 43.7 46.2 46.9 53.3 51.5 50.9 51.5 47.9 52.8 52.1 48.2 47.3 50.3 45.2 44.3 44.9 45.3 Average price. $96.17 96.14 96.44 96.78 97.14 97.29 97.24 97.36 97.57 96.99 96.65 96.55 96.46 96.49 96.65 96.77 96.62 96.59 96.76 96.71 96.43 96.59 96.45 96.52 96.50 96.52 96.49 96.29 96.16 96.00 96.21 96.08 96.09 95.77 95.85 96.40 96.67 96.51 96.91 96.86 96.89 97.04 97.25 97.28 97.15 96.99 96.89 97.09 97.16 97.09 96.82 96.61 Price fluctuations. 49.2 48.2 52.5 57.5 61.7 63.2 63.8 66.0 68.2 59.4 54.5 53.4 51.8 54.5 54.8 57.3 53.1 53.7 56.2 55.3 53.0 55.4 52.0 50.8 51.4 52.5 52.8 50.1 48.9 55.2 49.2 47.5 48.8 48.1 46.0 52.2 57.0 53.1 58.2 56.9 60.1 62.8 67.7 67.3 64.5 62.8 62.9 63.3 61.8 60.1 56.0 52.7 Fluctuations in t h e v a l u e of money. 50.8 51.8 47.& 42.5 38. a 36.8 36.2 34.0 31.8 40.6 45.5 46.6 54 5 45.5 45.2 42.7 46 9 46 3 43 8 44 7 47 0 44.6 48 0 49 2 48 6 47 5 47 2 49 9 51 1 44 8 50 8 52 5 51 2 51.9 54 0 47.8 43 0 46.9 41.8 43.1 39 9 37 2 32.3 32.7 35.5 37.2 37.1 36.7 38.2 39.9 44.0 47.3 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 180 TABLE XXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years, ending 1908—Average figures—Continued. B o n d 21 (1897-1908). B o n d 22 (1897-1908). Average index number. B o n d 23 (1890-1908). Average index number. B o n d 24 (1892-1908). Average index number. Average index number. Month and week. Average price. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 16 17 M a y — 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 ; 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec.— 48 49 50 51 52 . $92.82 92.96 93.42 93.48 93.67 93.84 93.70 93.38 93.52 93.28 93.90 93.77 94.28 94.24 93.92 93.77 93.85 94.06 94.07 93.92 93.95 94.23 94.47 94.39 94.08 94.02 94.27 94.28 94.38 94.34 94.60 94.77 94.60 94.72 94.96 94.89 94.75 94.47 94.71 94.56 94.52 94.80 94.72 94.76 94.93 94.81 94.65 94.95 95.43 95.38 94.71 94.95 Price fluctuations. 37.7 37.9 45.9 48.8 52.5 54.8 53.2 47.1 49.4 45.0 54.2 52.5 57.1 56.4 52.3 53.0 52.1 52.0 53.7 50.3 50.1 55.0 57.1 58.4 53.9 53.5 58.0 56.8 58.1 57.9 57.4 56.7 55.7 59.1 61.6 60.5 58.3 55.1 59.2 56.1 57.6 63.0 61.0 63.4 63.3 62.7 60.3 60.8 63.9 58.4 51.5 54.2 Fluctuations in the value of m o n e y . 62.3 62.1 54.1 51.2 47.5 45.2 46.8 52.9 50.6 55.0 45.8 47.5 42.9 43.6 47.7 47.0 47.9 48.0 46.3 49.7 49.9 45.0 42.9 41.6 46.1 46.5 42.0 43.2 41.9 42.1 42.6 43.3 44.3 40.9 38.4 39.5 41.7 44.9 40.8 43.9 42.4 37.0 39.0 36.6 36.7 37.3 39.7 39.2 36.1 41.6 48.5 45.8 Average price. $101.14 101.25 101.43 101.53 101.56 101. 42 101. 39 100.93 100.72 100. 79 100.76 100.58 100.84 100.85 101.02 100.90 100. 81 101.00 101.00 100. 92 101.36 101.41 101.45 101.30 101.36 101. 61 101.69 101.61 101.55 101.52 101.65 101. 60 101. 59 101.55 101. 57 101.46 101.33 101.12 101.35 101.54 101.28 101. 41 101.24 101.12 101.29 101.23 101.31 101.55 101.80 101. 73 101.88 102.35 Price fluctuations. 50.9 52.5 58.9 60.9 61.1 57.1 56.3 46.4 43.2 47.9 48.2 46.3 51.7 51.3 54.5 53.5 52.4 55.1 50.0 48.2 57.0 57.5 58.2 54.1 54.3 59.7 61.9 57.4 55.6 53.9 55.5 53.8 53.8 52.8 54.6 51.6 48.2 41.5 46.6 49.3 44.8 49.1 48.3 45.7 46.1 47.3 47.6 52.1 52.6 51.4 53.8 61.1 Fluctuations in the value of m o n e y . 49.1 47.5 41.1 39.1 38.9 42.9 43.7 53.6 56.8 52.1 51.8 53.7 48.3 48.7 45.5 46.5 47.6 44.9 50.0 51.8 43.0 42.5 41.8 45.9 45.7 40.3 38.1 42.6 44.4 46.1 44.5 46.2 46.2 47.2 45.4 48.4 51.8 58.5 53.4 .50.7 55.2 50.9 51.7 54.3 53.9 52.7 52.4 47.9 47.4 48.6 46.2 38.9 Average price. $102.37 101.99 102.54 102. 56 102. 58 102. 89 102. 82 103.09 102.91 102.45 102.30 102. 79 102. 44 102. 25 102.29 102. 78 102. 70 102. 63 102. 53 102. 88 102.77 102.81 102.66 102. 71 103. 06 102.58 102.43 102. 25 101. 69 101. 21 101.50 101. 61 101. 70 101. 51 101.90 101. 75 101. 90 101. 66 101.99 102.01 101. 91 101. 69 101. 64 102.07 101.92 102. 28 102. 25 102. 46 102. 25 102.09 101. 74 101.77 Price fluctuations. 55.8 49.3 54.9 57.5 55.0 57.5 59.2 60.8 56.5 52.0 53.6 55.7 54.8 49.5 51.2 55.4 55.1 53.8 52.6 57.9 59.8 58.1 56.4 57.2 59.3 54.5 50.8 52.4 45.2 43.0 45.5 45.4 45.0 42.6 45.0 43.3 45.5 43.2 46.2 46.3 44.2 43 1 43.9 47.9 46.3 50.7 50.2 55.1 52.5 51.9 48.6 52.6 Fluctuations in the value of m o n e y . 44.2 50.7 45.1 42.5 45.0 42.5 40.8 39.2 43.5 48.0 46.4 44.3 45.2 50.5 48.8 44.6 44.9 46.2 47.4 42.1 40.2 41.9 43.6 42.8 40.7 45.5 49.2 47,6 54.8 57.0 54.5 54.6 55 0 57.4 55.0 56.7 54.5 56.8 53.8 53.7 55.8 56.9 56.1 52.1 53.7 49.3 49.8 44.9 47.5 48.1 51.4 47.4 Average price. $81.37 81.88 82.53 82.80 83.34 82.92 82.76 82.70 82.56 82.53 82.46 82.44 82.49 82.79 83.05 82.89 83.01 83 07 83.05 82.82 82.85 83.10 82.84 82.95 82.60 82.50 82.87 82.53 82.40 82.13 82.65 82.84 82.73 83.03 83 39 83. 70 83. 41 83.06 82.75 82.69 82.16 82.43 83.31 82.85 83.19 82.83 82.47 82.68 83.00 82.66 82.03 82.21 Price, fluctuations. 43.6 47.9 56.6 58.5 65.3 58.8 55.5 57.5 55.6 55.7 54.0 53.4 55.4 56.6 59.4 58.7 58.1 57.4 57.1 55.0 53.2 59.2 54.8 56.0 52.6 51,5 53 9 51.7 49.0 47.9 51.6 55.6 54.3 57.6 60.4 64.1 60.7 54.9 52.7 54.6 50.6 54.0 59.8 58.2 58.3 55.8 51.6 53.3 53.6 52.0 46.2 46.7 Fluctuations in the value of m o n e y . 56.4 52.1 43.4 41.5 34.7 41.2 44.5 42.5 44.4 44.3 46.0 46.6 44.6 43.4 40.6 41.3 41.9 42.6 42.9 45.0 46.8 40-8 45.2 44.0 47.4 48.5 46.1 48.3 51.0 52,1 48.4 44.4 45.7 42.4 39.6 35.9 39.3 45.1 47.3 45.4 49.4 46.0 40.2 41.8 41.7 44.2 48.4 46.7 46.4 48.0 53.8 53.3 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 181 TABLE XXI.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by the fluctuations in the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years, ending 1908—Average figures—Continued. B o n d 27 (1890-1908). B o n d 26 (1899-1908). B o n d 25 (1895-1908). Average i n d e x number. Average i n d e x number. Average i n d e x number. M o n t h a n d week. Average price. $105.33 104.96 105.09 104. 98 105. 46 105.23 105.08 104. 44 104.35 103.90 104.10 104.11 104.54 104. 66 105.04 105. 04 105.23 105.75 105.83 106.14 106.19 106.21 106.44 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.— 31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 N o v . — 44 45 46 47 Dec.— 48 49 50 51 52 . . . . . .... ; .. .. .. . . .. .. . . 106. 50 106.55 106. 69 106.66 106.10 105.95 106.01 105.88 106.31 106.21 106.26 106.16 105. 91 105.83 105.86 105. 50 105. 27 105. 24 105. 60 105. 22 105. 60 106.09 105.95 105.49 106.10 106.38 105. 48 106.18 106.66 Price fluctuations. 44.2 44.7 47.1 49.0 52.0 49.5 47.9 42.9 41.4 40.6 43.2 42.3 46.0 46.0 48.7 47.8 48.1 50.0 51.3 52.4 54.5 55.4 58.6 60.6 60.0 60.5 60.2 55.2 53.2 54.0 53.0 56.3 57.4 59.3 57.8 55.4 54.1 52.7 49.0 46.3 45.9 50.8 47.7 49.6 52.4 51.0 47.2 52.7 53.7 47.9 54.0 58.2 Fluctuations in t h e value of m o n e y . 55.8 55.3 52.9 51.0 48.0 50.5 52.1 57.1 68.6 59.4 66.8 57.7 54.0 54.0 51.3 52.2 51.9 50.0 48.7 47/6 45.5 44.6 41.4 39.4 40.0 39.5 39.8 44.8 46.8 46.0 47.0 43.7 42.6 40.7 42.2 44.6 45.9 47.3 51.0 53.7 54.1 49.2 52.3 50.4 47.6 49.0 52.8 47.3 46.3 52.1 46.0 41.8 Average price. $103.06 103.24 103.65 103.62 103. 70 103. 44 103. 33 103. 20 103. 02 103. 05 103.06 102.89 103.13 103. 06 103.05 103. 03 103.01 102. 98 102. 84 102. 98 103. 01 103. 06 103. 21 103. 21 103. 09 103.18 103. 23 103. 36 103. 33 103.16 103. 25 103.12 103. 00 103. 09 102. 93 102. 55 102. 44 102.19 102.29 102. 26 102.29 102. 34 102. 23 101.91 102. 07 102. 26 102.15 102.60 102. 68 102.44 102.41 102.77 Price fluctuations. 55.2 58.7 67.3 67.4 71.1 66.3 62.0 59.3 56.1 56.9 58.6 54.2 59.1 56.3 54.4 53.7 49.5 51.0 48.5 51.8 50.5 52.8 56.2 57.7 55.9 58.0 59.5 63.8 62.0 57.6 61.3 56.8 57.6 61.2 58.8 48.5 48.5 40.6 41.0 40.1 40.6 42.1 41.6 38.5 40.3 45.2 43.1 50.3 49.9 44.8 47.9 52.4 Fluctuations in t h e value of m o n e y . 44.8 41.3 32.7 32.6 28.9 33.7 38.0 40.7 43.9 43.1 41.4 45.8 40.9 43.7 45.6 46.3 50.5 49.0 51.5 48.2 49.5 47.2 43.8 42.3 44.1 42.0 40.5 36.2 38.0 42.4 38.7 43.2 42.4 38.8 41.2 51.5 51.5 59.4 59.0 59.9 59.4 57.9 58.4 61.5 59.7 54.8 56.9 49.7 50.1 55.2 52.1 47.6 Average price. $108.79 108.87 109.16 109. 38 109. 50 109.40 109.15 108.82 108. 58 108. 49 108. 42 108.38 108.61 108. 77 108.68 109.01 109.19 109.11 108.97 108. 79 108.90 108. 95 108.93 108.84 108. 92 108. 80 108. 77 108.61 108.55 108. 49 108. 48 108. 43 108. 37 108. 27 108. 61 108. 64 108. 61 108.22 108. 37 108.54 108. 75 108.88 109.17 109.03 108. 89 108.73 108. 90 108.97 109.13 109.01 108.83 109.05 Price fluctuations. 52.4 53.2 58.5 62.2 65.5 63.8 59.7 55.2 50.7 49.4 48.7 48.3 53.2 55.2 52.9 58.4 61.2 59.0 58.6 55.6 57.3 57.8 58.7 57.0 59.5 58.4 56.9 52.8 52.7 52.4 52.1 49.6 49.7 48.8 53.7 53.2 51.0 45.3 46.5 50.3 54.6 57.0 62.7 58.7 58.9 54.9 58.1 59.2 58.7 57.3 52.6 55.5 Fluctuations in the value of m o n e y . 47.6 46.8 41.5 37.8 34.5 36.2 40.3 44.8 49.3 50.6 51.3 51.7 46.8 44.8 47.1 41.6 38.8 41.0 41.4 44.4 42.7 42.2 41.3 43.0 40.5 41.6 43.1 47.2 47.3 47.6 47.9 50.4 50.3 51.2 46.3 46.8 49.0 54.7 53.5 49.7 45.4 43.0 37.3 41.3 41.1 45.1 41.9 40.8 41.3 42.7 47.4 44.5 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 182 TABLE XXII.—Seasonal variations in the value of money as evidenced by thefluctuationsin the price of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods varying from nine to nineteen years, ending 1908. Averagefiguresfor all 27 bonds.a All 27 bonds. Average price. . . . All 27 bonds. Average index number. Month and week. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11. 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21 June—22 23 24 25 July—26 1 98.99 99.20 99.44 99.68 99.79 99.76 99.64 99.33 99.27 99.06 99.02 99.02 99.12 99.16 99.25 99.24 99.34 99.44 99.44 99.40 99.41 99.49 99.50 99.56 99.52 99.48 Price fluctuations. 48.1 51.0 55.5 59.3 60.9 59.9 58.5 54.2 52.7 51.5 51.1 51.5 53.0 53.6 54.8 54.2 54.7 55.2 54.5 53.4 53.7 54.8 55.1 56.7 56.0 55.9 Average price. Fluctuations in the value of money. 51.9 49.0 44.5 40.7 39.1 40.1 41.5 45.8 47.3 48.5 48.9 48.5 47.0 46.4 45.2 45.8 45.3 44.8 45.5 46.6 46.3 45.2 44.9 43.3 44.0 44.1 Average index number. Month and week. July— 27 28 29 30 1 Aug.— 31 32 ! 33 34 Sept.—35 36 1 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 1 42 43 Nov.— 44 45 46 47 Dec— 48 49 50 51 52 a These averages cover 394 quotations except for the period from the twentieth to the thirty-first week, inclusive, in which they cover only 2 the 27 different bonds are given in Tables 21-47 of the Appendix (pp. 413-510). 99.48 99.32 99.28 99.15 99.22 99.23 99.22 99.24 99.47 99.49 99.36 99.23 99.20 99.16 99.11 99.25 99.34 99.31 99.44 99.38 99.36 99.57 99.75 99.60 99.39 99.58 FluctuaPrice tions in fluctua- tiTe value tions. of money 55.4 53.7 53.4 51.8 52.1 52.1 52.5 52.9 55.2 54.9 52.9 51.1 50.4 49.3 50.0 52.2 53.5 52.8 52.8 52.8 52.9 55.3 56.3 54.2 52.2 55.0 44.6 46.3 46.6 48.2 47.9 47.9 47.5 47.1 44.8 45.1 47.1 48.9 49.6 50.7 50.0 47.8 46.5 47.2 47.2 47.2 47.1 44.7 43.7 45.8 47.8 45.0 The figures by weeks for CHART LII. T Seasonal Variations in the Value of Money SO As fvidenced The Fluctuations hu in the Price rx of ftrcHtsoN, TOPEKA AND SANTE FE RAILROAD BOWS, 10 Adjustment Gold 4s of ms. m<3-I<708.. GO so ! 40 so 20 -Average of Prices. to mJM wonths\ Ugnuartj B- _s ;o \Februortf \ Morch rs \ tfpri/ \ 2o Mat/ , I -Average of Index Numbers of Price Fluctuations. •Average of Index Numbers of fluctuations in the Value of Monet/. 7S \June~ I v/^//y I flugusf \*September\ October Wovember1 Pecember\ Uan. yfonlhJft (183) CHART LIII. a 8 fiveraqe or prices. fiveraqe of Index Numbers of Price C fiveraqe of Index Numbers 170 in +h*> Vhlir/o nf »\ £0 ^ w V / \Y *A A v\ i \ i / 30 / / \*o J i ! ^X i ' \ ^ - . \ ^ yv — H •• \ C wk \ \ % § U30i 8 •"•• \ uV— J 1 V ' s. \ 1 / tw& \ Jv A A ^~l/WJ \ ' A , 1 { S tm l\ 11 •1 1 9S.to\ \g 1 i i i 1 ii A\ i\ / \\ \\ \\ i \ // j \ 1 i A i » / 1 l Aj V i\ s /v J^f\ -t\ / / \\ i 7' 5 \ /o Flucfuafions. Mnn/o,/ 1 \ 40 \ i Flucfuafions \ CO 1 T A SO N 1 1 f /1 Seasonal Variations in fhe Value of Money \ > h A i vv Rs Evidenced The Fluctuations RTCHI nw | i bu in fhe Price of m*\ SON, TOPEKAfiNDSflNTE p£ falLPOAD Bot YDS, General Cold 4s of ms. mi-^os. M-m 1 Ir A J a S /O \/&>»Md *Janitarv \FebruartA March Week (184) IS 1 Apr// \ 1o Mau 2S \ Uune Jo 1 Uuft/ &£ 40 \ .August ]Ja/?fcf»M October nwi 4& So / \tierember\£7ecemb9r\*/an. CHART IXV. (185) CHART L V . f> nso\ Season a/ Variations in f/?e Ya/ue of Money rfs Fv/denced The Fluctuations So bu in the Fr/ce of H7S. CENTRAL PAC/F/C FAILFOAD BONDS, First Fefunding Gold 4s of F}4f. /<?00-/fOS. 10 <?<?.oo\ Co U1S fssd 4o <?S.2S\ 30 $S.OQ\ 2o f7-7s\ A Average of Frices. 3 Average of Index Numbers of Frice Fluctuations. C—i/reraqe of Index Numbers of fluctuations in the Value of Monet/. 10 P&eH MW/kl January I February 1 March (186) 1 April \ 2o Macf i dune 1 JuTtT August \<Sepfem6er\ 77So\ Oc/o6<sr Jt£- \/)/bye/r?6er\ 0eccm'6cr\don. 2Z2& WsMA WonlhjL CHART LVI. " "i ' J» 1 SO Seasonal Varial Ions in ihe Value of Money r"' 1 /20£Q 7 Us Evidenced The Flucfuafhns 'I / i 70 / CO f SO // in the Price of OF NEW JERSEY BOND s, 120.A General Gold 5s of H87. WO-1108. \ \ I20.2A \ ^\ FMLZO/ID ,-1 // }/ C wrfr/ii du 1 IV \ \ x /V v\ • / 40 V f \ \ \ \ \ SO —• \ t /\ / 1 \ f/f.COi 1 1 A\v A\ \ 1 / // \ , 1 V w / / 7o UfarMA <Jant/arcf i \ ttf.3o\ 1 1 —fiver age of Fr'n?es. i 3- —Avert ?oe of Indt 'x Number^ 9 of Price Flucfuaho ns. c —flveraqe of Index Numbers of Flucluafions in II? e Value of Money. j to L ° P^tfyf.S 1w l l\ } i V AA "* \j x f / \ \ w 3 ^ 3 \ rebruartA /O March| /S /jpr// | I 2o Mac/ I 2& | \June 1 So \ \Ju/tf \ Auac/sf I 3S \Sepfem&<;r\ J 4o 45 Ocfo6e r \ Worc.mbar\ 118.7a So Pecem6er\ | / x/gn. (187) //A'4o\ Wceik Worfh^ CHART LVII. Seasonal Varia lions in the Value of Moneu so i 93 tS Us Evidenced bu i The Fluclualions in the Price of CHESftP£fiKE 70 /WD OrffO /f/?71 FOfiP 80/WS, J 92.S& Oeneral Cold 4is of mz. 60 9?M SO i W2S\ 40 \w\ 30 \v*s\ 20 \1/-3S\ —Average of Prices. —Hvera^e of Index Numbers of Price Fluctuations. —Average of Index Numbers of Fluctuations in the Value of Money. /o WseM yrionUk January _j [ fcbraaru (188) \ March \ Apr it \ May i \ June i \ J a/is *° I /Juaasf i &s \Sepfem6cf\ *° October Jf/.A* 4-S \M>vom6er\ _ &° / Pccembcrj Jan. mm Utedtd CHART LVIII. ?<? I iSeaSv//u/ \V I I \ r^ * 70 ^ 1 \ i i i ^ \i »•t i l i f V 1 /1 ; *> / » \so VI I Ii 1 of/927. 9S.oA ^ l\ A X // ^\\ »\ !/-\ A /I \ \\ \\ V \\ \ /' *\ / \ \ \ \ \l/ \\ \ \ \\1 ^ \i A V yv / Fluctuations \ 5 v. ft AS \ April 2o \ Macf 26 1 ^Jifpc VA 1 • i 1 A 1 / i <77.2s\ • / / i / \ // i ' \ i — ! i 47.°A I !M <?css\ s in the Value of Moneu. \Februaru \ March i i • \ I ••• \ * ffuctuafions. . 1 .<tu/t/.. 974& \ i i i i, January \1 i i\ j 20 te#s 1 i i Rverage of Prices. <?us\ V 1J ,Average of Index Numbers of --—1 i \ ii \WcU ° 1 I / i i » SO of Price \1 \ \ \ ~~ c \ A \ / \r*r V \ >foe rage of Index Numbers \ »A / / v 1 1 t 1 1 to BONDS, mo-tqos. I 40 A of V rf B J^^d iriuncij FfifLtfofiD Nebraska Extension 4's \ A GO l\ i* vi in the Price CHWftuo, BURLING j ON fiND QufNCtY \ i vutuc m2s\ i \ The fluctuations • '\ i • fft life fts Evidenced bu \ i 80 VUJ(u/iuf/o 3€> 1 3S fit/gust 4o \Ssf>fembet\ October OS <£o \ / \ Ncy*m6er\Decem6~6r~\ «y<yyy. (189) I616& Weekix U^<^//^ CHABT LIX. (190) CHART LX. (191) CHART LXI. 1 - K 1 7* / / 1 As Evidenced bu ! \ 1 1 1 I 1 1 The fluctuations \ E&E \ \ first fsss\ in the Price of RAILROAD BONOS, Consolidafed Oold 4st Prior Lien offffG. fS3o\ iw/fos. f i' AVI k Go / 1 / 1 \ \ / So 11 1 4o / \1 // 1 1 f/ K / \« \ 1 1 V \t »\ / i\r\ * \ 1 / \ I x v** f p 1 \ * \ / */ \> [1 J ' / V i */ \ \A 1 \ \ / A O Weeks \MonM yJonuaro 1 r *i\rebruarif\ (192) .4' 1 \ I ;o 1 \\ !1 \V / V Average of Prices March &3c\ ^ B Average of Index Numbers of Price Ftucfuafions. C ——Average of IndeK Numbers of Flue fuaf ions in the Value ofMoneu. IO l \ y,^ Apr// l \ 20 Moq ' \ *June. 2s \ \{ / \ / / \ ftssl / A 1 1r / V Zo *"N* 1 \ \ <?4.6o\ y\ 1 \ 30 <?S.oA \# /1 // \\ • ^ 1 \ \ ' \ \ W v *v \\ Prices XO 1 Seasonal Variations in the Value of Moneu Uu/u &° \ August <?4.0s\ 1 V\j- f&M V AS \Scpfemi>ci\ 40 4s~ Ocfol>er,\fVovem6er\Decem6er so \ / \ v/<7/7. f£Ss\ Week* Monfh^ CHART LXII. J Yarial ions in the Value of Morreu Seasonal 1& i The Fluctuations * 1 i do i i t i i K \ / |\ • h rsl Consolidpfcd Gold 4zs of IV i in the Price of JYoc/r/wG VALLEY RWLZOAD BONOS, 11 7? WO-tfOS. A // \ ' /\» \ / V V ' »i\ \ /i \\ V i / < A / \ \/ /I /l i t i fl 'X. \i / 1 i ^ X \i / 1 X / / ' xi ' i * I / 40 \l I / v/W ' \ \ 1 ^» 1 • * 1 —-\ AM L.- i /A \ * \ X 1 i ! t \\ i i i i i i i i \ \ \i j \Vi 3D A 11 v \\ \\ \1 > i i fr 1 Average /Average of Index Numbers of Price 8 /O of Prices. fluctuations. \\ / ' r~ c—/Iverage of Index Numbers of fluctuations in the Value ofMoneu. _____ * . 16065°—11- -13 1 I . I & 1February \ march ___** \ April #? ........ | May \ ... June 1 \ ^ Ju/u / ; /C4.£6\ /' VV H /O4.$o\ • 1 *4?._...... A '» lo4.qo\ M.m /V \ \ 1 20 Wsik | January yossd im. A V' L-£Wtfte l^syd Hs Evidenced btf AS \ /togusf tftf \Sef>femter\ October 4^ /oq./o\ Is* \\Nove.mfcr\0ecember T r/"v"'"1Weet& \ "V^r..'i foliM (193) CHART LXIII. Seasonal 1—— SO Variations in the Value of Moneu fls Evidenced bu The Fluctuations bwfl 10 in the Price CENTRAL First fa/u?o*D Oofd 5's h !' jV •<of 1 1 1 1 1 ffonvs, of fotjo\ I 1 HSS 1 f 1 mo -i<fo8. \ \ 1 1 1 / ; / X \ » 1 \ LA /ooSa jL'-.'vjE / r /ot to\ A ' A \ A so !/ 1 J ' A s/ / 60 /L /x fo/4o\ 1/1 1 1 •5 *> 1 1 y v » * \ / \C-~- 'A 1 s /I \ \ 40 toosoi \ i V / i / / SO / h \ l N / / / / f / a— Average of B Ryerage of index Numbers of Price C Average of index Numbers Prices 4?6o\ of Ffucfuottons Fluctuations in the Value of Moneu oi mnfk roo?A f <&.<?o\ fo IktfM&j « / I \ ' V \/ i i / * i \ \ t \ i \ i X ' \ i i 20 1 £ Ja ft gain/ \Febnsoru (194) /C> 1 Ma/ -ch AS 1 /?pr // 1 2o Mau 1 7S \ dune A 3o \ du/u 1 August 1 ' 1 &£ 4o \Sepfember\Ocfpber 1 4£ \fifo*em6er £o \ t Wecembeft dan. 99.3o\ Weeis\ MonftA CHART LXIV. (195) CHABT LXV. \ft——Average of Prices. Average of Index, l/umders of Price flvcfao/ivnsi^-. -Average of Index lumbers of Fluctuations //? the Value of Money, I \ SO Seasonal v A Variations in the Value of /9s fvidenced 2o 1 Tbe Fluctuations ' \\l to LDUISY/LLE Money by in trie Price of A/YD NASHVILLE FA/L/ZOAO BO/YDS, Unified Gold 4's of I<?40. IP7&-IJ0S. WeekA Wwfal S s/*r>uory_ \Pebroortf (196) \ /O March I /S April \ 2Q fifoy 25 \ June \ Ju/tf SO \ fioqusf 3S \ SapfemferX ao October 4£ " . \ Nov&mb&r \ £Q Uecentbttr Weekd Vfort/Af CHART LXVI. Seasonal Variations in the Vatue of Money 80 Us Evidenced by The Fluctuations in the Price of MISSOURI, Kwsns 10 two Texas FAIL/TOAD 3O/YDS> First Gold 4's of FFfO. co so 4o $0 20 10 .3- \Wee£A wonfhk January Hverage of Frices. flverage of Index Nam hers of Price Fluctuations, Average of Index Numbers of Fluctuations in the Vatue of Money. 1 February 1 March I Apr// \ May 1 June I Ju/u August \Sepfenther 1 Ocfojfer \November 1 December 1 Jan. \/flo/tth^ (197) CHART LXVII. 1* _L Seasonal MCf./d Variafions in fhe Value of hhneu fls Evidenced bq The Ffucfuafions in fhe Frice of 80 MISSOURI PACIFIC RAILROAD \10&8& BONDS, Firsf Consofidofed 6old G's oF feJ20 IS<?0-I<?03. 10 Co A/cS.3% So •J/03.r°\ 4o A/07.Z& 30 J/c/.to] 2o yof.3S\ -Average of 10 Prices. -Average of Index Numbers of Frice 'Average of of fndex Numbers in fhe Vafue of Weeks Wonihk January \ February (198) 1 MarcfT I April 20^ Mat/ IS ^une- SO \ *Ju/tf 1 /fu^jrs/ Ffucfuafions., Ffucfuafions \/oj./o\ Moneu. 35 40 \SepfemfeAacfober OS \NcvemJ>er\ yc£SS[ \£Q lhte?&| December\ Uor?. WonihA CHART LXVIII. \io /0l£o\ Seasonal Variations in the Value of Money Us Evidenced bu , !03.0c\ 80 The Fluctuations MISSOURI PACIFIC, ST. Lours, in the Price of IRON MOUNTAIN RAILROAD 10 Ueneral i t \ AND SOUTHERN BONOS, Lonsol/dated uatd 1814-1108, t < \ 5's of n^L . i • i t * \ / SO J yvA\ ^ Y I/ / / —\ // f \i V \\ \\ \ \ \ / / i / / to ^ / / r-~\ f— y z 1 IO2S0\ * /1 ! \/i / v !C2.oo\ |v/v \ // /// / 1 I1 y / i^ /ocso\ / 1 > 1 \ A V 1 \ 1 1 A- Average of Frices. B /Iverage of index Numbers of Price Fiucfua /ions. Average of Index Numbers of Fluctuations in the Va/ue of Money. C — l /00.0A > to <7<?SQ\ o Weeks. WonSAs\Ja/)ux3rtf ior.oo\ V A/ \ t r ^/ iF 10/. so II J\l\ 40 30 A r t // \ / \ \ 1 V ' SO 41 \ V \\ V W.co\ & \r<s/>rc/arc/\< /O March \ IS Apr// \ 2o May 23 \ Uune \ Uulif 30 1 August 3£ \Sep/em£>er\ 4o October 4£ November £o \Decem6er 1 7-7:.. Weeks\ \ ^Jan. MonMs\ (199) CHART LXIX. So Seasonal Variations in the Value of Money \ f I As Evidenced bu The Fluctuations in the Price of NEW YO£K CENTAL P AND HUDSON FIVER fatif?0A& BONDS, Gold 3{s of m7 18??-l<?08. GO SO 40 SO 20 Average of Prices. Average of Index Numbers of Price Fluctuations. ' Average of Index Numbers of Fluctuations in the Value of Money. 10 ^B thkxfonuoru I February ' 1 March (200) 1 flprif 1 2o Mou 2& 1 dune \ %/u/u1 /fu^usr 33 \Septcmbcr\ 4o October 4£- \NoYemfier\Decembcr\ don MsM CHART LXX. A <?0 i i ! fO<o<?<\ \ \ \ i i so Seasonal \ \ i The Fluctuations \ i 10 A / / it / / /\ NEWYC ?/e<r CENTAL \\ \V West Shore v \ bu in the Price Guaranteed Monet/ /?/V££ First 4s of of }0&10\ &?/LZO/?D BONDS, 23GL 1810'-/<?08. I0<o.5c\ t \ v \ \\ \ V \ \ \\ L \ CO \ V \ — / A \ <*> -y v * \ /^"\ * \/ ^ SO \ * 4o Value of AND HUDSON * / in the Us Evidenced \\ i i Variations \ \\ .N V \\ \\ \A I \ \ \ \ / \ A i" ' \l c\ N f ^^ i V \/ r v\ I \ \ V A \ 1 1 \ \ \ \ 1 \ * \ x 30 • * \\ \ 1i 1 \ \J I \ \I ! I 1 J ' ^« (OSJGi \ \ i i \f ?o IO&SQ\ A-"- -A Average /O o* r Prices. Fluctuations. 3— -Ryerage of Index Numbers of Price —Average of Index Numbers of Fluctuations in the Value of Moneu. i a |hfc«k| \M*M losqA % •! \\ 1 1 *° •Janvoru £ 1 fabreran/\ i 10 March i \ IS Apr*'/ i \ 7o tfatf (OS.Z& i \ 25 sJunc 1 \/os.to\ ^ / y SO > SS rfu4u#f.\'Sepfcmbef\ 4o Oc/ober 4S So \. / \W££A£ XNovemberX Decern£?ar\ ofr/*. \CHS2ihA (201) CHART LXXI. i \ « i i i i r go /V i t Seasonal Variations in the Value of iHlonei/ * Us Evidenced \ i i The Fluctuations \ » » » A 'EW j 10 YORK. ONTA&O A r/rsl Tn the Price AND Gold \ WESTERN 4s of 1 faiLFoao of t i i BONOS Igf3-I<?08 y'/ / / \ /' \j>0 V: v A 1\ i 1 \ r\ /' Y ' « ' \ A/i\ \ V / \ * \ 4o \ \\ 1^2. 60 2 \973$ bu nio\ ! ! i ^\! * %8d \\ v\ V \ 1 A^ %.&o\ a 6.3s\ i i \ */? So \ 1 9&/o\ ^ \ i a 2o £SsL \ V fh JO Average of Prices 5 Average of Index Numbers C >Average of Index Numbers Pluctua f/ons of Price of °S.6d Fluctuations in the Value of /Vfoneu o it/Aftfe 1 \Monfh& {January S \Et ebruoru (202) 1 /O I March 1 \ /£ Apr// 1 1 ?0 May 2S \ June \ Ju/u <30 \ SS fiuaus? 4o \Sepfemb<sr\Ocfo ber 4S So \fVpvernJ>er\Oeccm6er Jan. / te&\ Weekk MonM CHART LXXII. N 80 ft- Average of Prices- B- Average of Index Numbers of Price Frucluafions. Average of Index Numbers of F/ucfua lions in the Value of Money. la Co SO 40 So Seasonal Varial ions in the Value of Monet/ 7o /Is Evidenced btf The Ftucfualions NORFOLK AND to in the Price WZSTEKN /?/I/LKO/!D of BONDS, Firsl Consoltdafed Gold 4s of IM6. /Sa7-/<?03. i jyyfegiy Wonfhk January s \ fe6ruary\ to March \ is /IprrF 2S | Mac/ j Uums \ *Ju/t{ I rfuat/sf \Scpfem6cr\ October Weeks\ \Woven?6er\0ecem2>er\ *Jar7. Wonttisj (203) CHART LXXTII. too Seas one/ Variafions in fhe Vafue of Money /9s Evidenced di/ The Flucfuafions 90 NORTHERN P/?C/F/C Prior lien in fhe Price P/?/JLRO/?D Gold 4's of 1 \ of 8O/Y&S, /?17. So 7* Co So 4o 30 7o B- /o iHfrgfol VfofffA&Uonuarv \Febrt/<trt{ \ March (204) \ /fptrf \ *L /M>y ?£ \ June \ *Ju/u /fveroae of Prices. Average of/ndex Numbers of Price FJucfuafions. Average of/ndex Numbers of Flucfuafions in fhe Vafue of Moneu. SO \ Auqusf \S\sptember\ 4o October 44 \Hovemb&r\Deccmb*r\ Jem ^fpa*o\ \Weeks\ CHART LXXIV. CHART LXXV. Seasonal Variations in the Vatue of Money so As Evidenced bu The Fluctuations Sr. Lours SOUTHWESTERN 70 A in the Frfce RAILROAD First Gold 4's of /\ / \ of BONDS, /f/f 18<?2-I<?0g Co so 4o SO 20 /? 8 flveroge of Frices Average of Index Numbers C—Average of Index Numbers 10 )n the Value of w&M typaMkyJonuoru \Februdrif\ (206) /o, March \ April 1 to May \ ££-. <Jur?& \ yJultf of Frice of Fluctuations Fluctuations Moneu. \ August \<SepfemMAQcfQ&er \Novem6&r\0eee>mber <Jon. ytiorifi& CHART LXXVI. 1 \i so yo&sa \\ J V / / // 11 ( CO i i i\ i / • \ i \ \ i i j — ^ _ V ^ J \ \ /-^ \ 1 1 1 1 ' / j • / K C \ 10G>I0\ \ /os.jo\ / \ so \ / / i /OS. 3d \ / r\ N \ / \ / // V3 \ i 40 // /11 1 } / / . . . 1t V) \ 20 „ \\ \ \ \.\ I I Seasonal 1 t1 1 1 1 Variations fl 5 Average of flveroge __ The Fluctuations / SOUTHf^N Frices. O S&.\ >Januaru of Index Numbers 1 in the Value 1 & fO \Fe.bri/orif \ Morch bu in the fa/twAY Consolidated Moneu \ Fr/ce of f 04./0\ BONDS, S's of !<?<?£. \ W5-lf0S. C—m "flveroge of Index Numbers W?n/Jk Value of Us Evidenced 1 1 F/'rst ro in the of Fr/ce of Fluctuations ofAfweu. Y 1 IS \ /fpri/ Uat^-r/Dl Fluctuaf/ ons. \ 1 to tfotf 1 \ IS sJune. 1 \ *Jc/W 3ty \ //73.3d fluqusf SS 4o \Sepf&mber\ Ocfobe.r 4£, *£o \Afoyen7bar \ 0&cerr> b&r ' Vfe&kA v/<g/7. j MonfhA (207) CHART LXXVII. (208) CHART L X X V I I I . \ \\ \\ i! \\ i Seasonal /i Venations in the Value of Money t 80 /0<?4o[ 1 i i i // /// f 1 , 10 fhe fluctuations \ \\ \ l i WfiBnsH in the Prrce of ft/ULZono BONDS , , /<P0.?o\ I \ r~ first Gold 5's af'113*1. 18^0 -l<fOg. j\ GO Y> \ 1/ \ \> SO X ! \J / 40 / i 1 V i \ 1 \ J • • \x i / V l <^\ t i lo<?cd 1 /o&sa \ i /v ^ V \ fmmm 108.GA 'I I) \j 30 I/ A y V/ I / \ ' \ / j \ l \ \J A <S \ / / i>w —— \ 1\ / \ \ \ V I // *t /, K\ / \ //\ \ ~ \ / / \ f08-4& N ( V I / \ I '»' 20 fl~-—fl veroge of Prices. fiver age B ——Average c 10 of Index Numbers of of Index Numbers in the Value of ( flucfuai ions- Price of fCS-CC\ fluefuafions Moneu. j \ o Weeks\ fthnlhA 106.lk sJant/artf 3 1 fc6ruGt»Lf 16065°—11 /O I 14 XTorch IS \ Apr// 2o j /1/<7<£ /07.M 2S 1 \June, SO \ yJc//c/ 3S | flugusr \ Septet •n6er\ 4c Ocfa£>e>r^ &S \November \ .So December / sjan. (209) Weeks /f?or>/h$ CHART LXXIX. SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE VALUE OF MONEY /is Evidenced 3L{ SO THE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRICE OF TWENTY-SEVEN 10 RAILROAD BONDS, For Periods Varying From Ita-tf Years. 60 SO 40 30 20 R3 C to WeekA WantM January S \Februaru\ (210) to March \ Average oF Prices. Average oF Index Numbers oF Price Fluctuations. Average oF Index Numbers oF Fluctuations in the Value of Monet/. t£ Apr// \ 2t> Afau 25 \ Uune 30 I Uu/y \ August SS \Septembe/\ 4o October 4£ \November\ £Q December \ / Weete \ Uan. Won/hk SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 211 Curve " A " on each individual bond chart (Charts I If we examine the figures for each bond for the inL I I - L X X I X ) represents the average " a n d interest" dividual years a we observe the following results: quotations of all the first weeks, all the second weeks, all The price of bond No. 1 was higher for t h e fifth week than for the first the third weeks, etc., for the number of years covered by in ten years and lower in two & years. the chart. On the summary chart covering all the twentyThe price of bond No. 2 was higher for the fifth week than for the first seven bonds curve " A " is a composite of these average in ten years and lower in two years. The price of bond No. 3 was higher for the fifth week than for the first prices, each bond being weighted according to the numin seven years and lower in two years. ber of years for which quotations were used. The price of bond No. 4 was higher for the fifth week than for the first Curve " B , " on each individual bond chart, represent- in seven years and lower in two years. ing the "average of index numbers of price fluctuations/' The price of bond No. 5 was higher for the fifth week than for the first was calculated as follows: The minimum price for the \ in fourteen years and lower in four & years. The price of bond No. 6 was higher for the fifth week than for the first bond in each year was represented by an index number of in fourteen years and lower in two years. 0, the maximum price was represented by an index numThe price of bond No. 7 was higher for the fifth week than for the first ber of 100, and the other weekly prices were prorated. 0 in twelve years and lower in seven years. The index numbers for the nineteen first weeks (if the The price of bond No. 8 was higher for the fifth week than for t h e first bond ran for the nineteen years 1890-1908) were then in fifteen years and lower in four years. The price of bond No. 9 was higher for the fifth week than for t h e first averaged together, those for the nineteen second weeks, in fourteen years and lower in five years. etc., through the fifty-two weeks of the year, and the The price of bond No. 10 was higher for the fifth week than for the first resulting composite was plotted as curve " B " of the in seven years and lower in four years. chart. The price of bond No. 11 was higher for t h e fifth week than for the first Curve " C , " representing " t h e average of index num- in seven years and lower in two years. The price of bond No. 12 was higher for t h e fifth week than for the first bers of fluctuations in the value of money," is the exact in ten years and lower in nine years. reverse of curve " B . " In computing these index numT h e price of bond No. 13 was higher for t h e fifth week than for t h e first bers the lowest price each year, representing the most in three years and lower in six years. valuable money, was designated by an index number of The price of bond No. 14 was higher for the fifth week than for t h e first 100; the highest price, representing the least valuable in five years and lower in six years. The price of bond No. 15 was higher for the fifth week than for the first money, was designated by an index number of 0, and the in thirteen years and lower in five years. other prices were prorated. The price of bond No. 16 was higher for t h e fifth week than for the first The index numbers for the twenty-seven bonds were in fourteen years and lower in five years. combined in averages, weighted according to the number The price of bond No. 17 was higher for the fifth week than for t h e first of years covered by each bond, and these averages are in ten years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 18 was higher for the fifth week than for the first plotted as curves " B " and " C " of the summary chart. in four years and lower in six years. (Chart L X X I X . ) Each point on the summary chart repThe price of bond No. 19 was higher for the fifth week than for t h e first resents an average of 393 or 394 price quotations or index in eleven years and lower in eight years. numbers for a particular week ( i . e . , first week of the The price of bond No. 20 was higher for the fifth week than for the first in eleven years and lower in five years. year, second week, etc.). PRINCIPAL SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS. The price of bond No. 21 was higher for the fifth week than for t h e in nine years and lower in three years. The price of bond No. 22 was higher for the fifth week than for the in nine years and lower in three years. The price of bond No. 23 was higher for the fifth week than for t h e in ten years and lower in nine years. The price of bond No. 24 was higher for the fifth week than for t h e in fourteen years and lower in three years. The price of bond No. 25 was higher for the fifth week than for the in seven years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 26 was higher for the fifth week than for the in seven years and lower in three years. The price of bond No. 27 was higher for the fifth week than for the in fourteen years and lower in five years. first first The first seasonal movement in bond prices shown by first Chart L X X I X is an advance from the beginning of the year to about the first week of February—a period during first which the money market has been found to be almost first invariably declining and weak. Concerning the extent and regularity of the rise of first prices at this time the following evidence may be given: The average price for all the 27 bonds rose from $98.99 first for the first week to $99.79 for the fifth, the average Thus, out of 394 " bond-years " the price was higher in index number of prices rising at the same time from 48.1 the fifth week than in the first in 268, or 68 per cent; was» to 60.9. lower in 124, or 31.5 per cent. c Taking the bonds individually, we find t h a t for 26 of j the 27 (i. e., all but bond No. 13) the average price was a The expression " b o n d - y e a r " will be used to designate " a year f o r higher for the fifth week than for the first; and t h a t for one b o n d , " somewhat analogous to the expression " t o n - m i l e " in; 25 of the 27 (i. e., all but Nos. 13 and 23) 6 the average transporation. & The price was t h e same for the two weeks in one year. index number was higher. a Cf. p p . 13-15. & Cf. Charts L X I V and L X X I V . c T h e price was the same for the two weeks in two years, or 0.5. perr I cent. 212 NATIONAL MONErTARY COMMISSION. Viewing the subject by another method, and remembering that the index numbers for each bond each year vary from 0 to 100, we may divide the index number arbitrarily into three groups: (1) Those below 34; (2) those between 34 and 67; and (3) those above 67. Of t h e 394 bond years the index number was below 34 for the first week in 160 and for the fifth week in 93; it was above 67 for the first week in 144 and for the fifth week in 191. Considering the accumulation of " v e r y high" index numbers (i. e., those above 85) and " v e r y low" index numbers (i. e., those below 15) in the different months, we find that February had 423 index numbers above 85, of which 44 were 100, while it had only 146 below 15, of which 14 were 0. (Cf. p. 217 note.) The evidence accordingly points clearly to an upward tendency of prices during the first five weeks of the year. a The second seasonal period to consider is that extending from the fifth week (fore part of February) to the eleventh or twelfth week (latter part of March). This is a period of falling prices and, as we have found, 6 of increasing demand for loanable capital. The average price of all bonds fell from $99.79 for the fifth week to $99.02 for the eleventh, the average index number falling at the same time from 60.9 to 51.1. Considering the individual bonds, the average price was lower for the eleventh week than for the fifth for 25 of the 27 bonds, as likewise was the average index number. A study of the movements for the individual years shows the same downward tendency at this time. The price of bond No. 1 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in ten years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 2 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in eight years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 3 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in seven years and higher in two years. The price of bond No. 4 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in eight years and higher in one year. The price of bond No. 5 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in thirteen years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 6 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in eleven years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 7 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in eleven years and higher in eight years. The price of bond No. 8 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in thirteen years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 9 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in seventeen years and higher in two years. The price of bond No. 10 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in ten years and higher in one year. The price of bond No. 11 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in eight years and higher in one year. The price of bond No. 12 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in sixteen years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 13 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in three years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 14 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in nine years and higher in two years. a For special causes, aside from the slack money market which normally characterizes this period, see pp. 217-218. 5 Cf. Charts I-V, and p. 28. The price of bond No. 15 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in twelve years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 16 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in twelve years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 17 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in twelve years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 18 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in ten years and higher in no year. The price of bond No. 19 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in fourteen years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 20 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in nine years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 21 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in eight years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 22 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in nine years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 23 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in fourteen years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 24 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in thirteen years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 25 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in ten years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 26 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in eight years and higher in two years. The price of bond No. 27 was lower for the eleventh week than for the first in fifteen years and higher in four years. Thus out of the 394 " b o n d - y e a r s " the price was lower in the eleventh week than in the fifth in 290, or 73.6 per cent, and higher in 104, or 26.4 per cent. The eleventh week had 131 index numbers below 34 as compared with 93 below 34 for the fifth week. I t had 141 above 67 as compared with the fifth week's 191. Twenty-two of the 395 index numbers of 100 occurred in March and 37 of the 403 index numbers of 0 occurred in that month. 0 A study of the individual bonds and of the individual years thus substantiates the testimony of the average figures for all bonds for all years t h a t there is a tendency for bond prices to fall during the period of the spring " r e v i v a l " in the money market. The third seasonal period to observe is one of advancing prices from about the latter part of March to the middle of June. A reference to Charts I - V shows t h a t this is a period of weakening money market. The average price of the 27 bonds rose from $99.02 for the eleventh week to $99.56 for the twenty-fourth, the average index number rising at the same time from 51.1 to 56.7. For 22 of the 27 bonds the average price was higher for the twenty-fourth week than for the eleventh, and for 21 of the 27 the average index number was higher. Analyzing the price movements of the different bonds for the individual years, we observe the same upward tendency at this time. The price of bond No. 1 was higher for the twenty-fourth week than for the eleventh in eight years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 2 was higher for the twenty-fourth week than for the eleventh in eight years and lower in four years. The price of bond No. 3 was higher for the twenty-fourth week than for the eleventh in six years and lower in two years.0 «Cf. p. 217, note. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. The price of bond No. 4 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in four years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 5 was higher* for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in eight years and lower in eleven years. The price of bond No. 6 was higher for t h e twenty-fourth week for t h e eleventh in seven years and lower in nine years. The price of bond No. 7 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in ten years and lower in nine years. The price of bond No. 8 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in seven years and lower in eleven years. a The price of bond No. 9 was higher for t h e twenty-fourth week for t h e eleventh in ten years and lower in seven years.t> The price of bond No. 10 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in seven years and lower in four years. The price of bond No. 11 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in five years and lower in four years. The price of bond No. 12 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in eleven years and lower in eight years. The price of bond No. 13 c was higher for t h e twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in four years and lower in four years. The price of bond No. 14 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in eight years and lower in three years. The price of bond No. 15 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in twelve years and lower in six years. The price of bond No. 16 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in eight years and lower in eleven years. The price of bond No. 17 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in ten years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 18 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in three years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 19 was higher for t h e twenty-fourth week for t h e eleventh in nine years and lower in ten years. The price of bond No. 20 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in eight years and lower in eight years. The price of bond No. 21 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in six years and lower in five years.^ The price of bond No. 22 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in seven years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 23 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in eleven years and lower in eight years. The price of bond No. 24 was higher for trfe twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in eight years and lower in eight years.a The price of bond No. 25 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for the eleventh in ten years and lower in four years. The price of bond No. 26 was higher for t h e twenty-fourth week for t h e eleventh in three years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 27 was higher for the twenty-fourth week for t h e eleventh in eleven years and lower in eight years. than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than than For the 393 bond-years compared 209, or 53.2 per cent, showed higher prices in the twenty-fourth week than in the eleventh, and 178, or 45.3 per cent, showed lower prices.^ This method of analysis therefore shows only a very small upward tendency in prices from the eleventh to the twenty-fourth week. During the 394 bond-years the eleventh week had 131 index numbers below 34, while the twenty-fourth week had only 51. The eleventh week, however, had 141 index a I n one year the price of this bond was the same for t h e two weeks compared. & I n two years the price of this bond was the same for the two weeks compared. c O n e quotation is lacking in this group. <* Six bond years or 1.5 per cent showed the same prices for t h e two weeks compared. 213 numbers above 67, as compared with the twenty-fourth week's 131. There were accordingly a few more "high" index numbers (i. e., above 67) for the eleventh week than for the twenty-fourth, but the number of " h i g h " and " m o d e r a t e " ones combined (i. e., above 34) was much larger for the twenty-fourth week than for the eleventh. Viewing the very low and very high index numbers by months, we observe that March had 226 index numbers below 15, of which 37 were 0; April had 217 index numbers below 15, of which 35 were 0; May had 85 index numbers below 15, of which 16 were 0; June had 47 index numbers below 15, of which 9 were 0. These figures point strongly to an upward tendency of prices during this period. The figures for very high index numbers are not so uniform in their testimony. March had 207 index numbers above 85, of which 22 were 100; April had 280 index numbers above 85, of which 26 were 100; May had 164 index numbers above 85, of which 13 were 100; June had 143 index numbers above 85, of which 17 were 100. On the whole, the evidence seems to support the conclusion that there is a tendency for bond prices to rise from the latter part of March until the fore part of May and to be comparatively high from then until about the middle of June. This tendency is in substantial harmony with the money market movements of this season of the year. a Average prices continue high, though with a slight downward tendency, until about the middle of July, after which they tend downward until the fore part of August. The average price fell from $99.56 for the twenty-fourth week to $99.22 for the thirty-first, the average index number falling at the same time from 56.7 to 52.1. For 19 of the 27 bonds the average price was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth, and for 20 of the 27 the average index number was lower. Analyzing the figures of the different bonds for the individual years, we obtain the following results: The price of bond No. 1 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in seven years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 2 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in seven years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 3 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in six years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 4 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in three years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 5 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in ten years and higher in nine years. The price of bond No. 6 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in nine years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 7 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in thirteen years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 8 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in twelve years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 9 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in eleven years and higher in eight years. The price of bond No. 10 was lower for the thirty-first week the twenty-fourth in five years and higher in six years. a Cf. Charts I-V and p . 28. than for than for than for than for than for than for than for than for than for than for NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 214 The price of bond No. 11 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in four years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 12 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in ten years and higher in nine years. The price of bond No. 13 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in six years and higher in two<* years. The price of bond No. 14 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in four years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 15 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in ten years and higher in eight years. The price of bond No. 16 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in eight years and higher in eleven years. The price of bond No. 17 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in nine years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 18 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in six years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 19 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in eleven years and higher in eight years. The price of bond No. 20 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in eight years and higher in eight years. The price of bond No. 21 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in seven years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 22 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in five years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 23 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in twelve years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 24 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in ten years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 25 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in eight years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 26 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in four years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 27 was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in ten years and higher in nine years. For the 393 bond-years the price was lower for the thirty-first week than for the twenty-fourth in 215, or 54.7 per cent, and higher in 178, or 45.3 per cent. The twenty-fourth week had 131 index numbers above 67 and 51 below 34, while the thirty-first week had 135 index numbers above 67 and 105 below 34. The only evidence for decline shown by this classification is in the fact t h a t the thirty-first week had more than twice as many " l o w " index numbers (i. e., index numbers below 34) as the twenty-fourth. Comparing the month of J u n e (twenty-second to twenty-sixth week) with the month of August (thirtyfirst to fifty-fifth week) for very high index numbers and very low ones, we find t h a t June had 143 index numbers above 85, of which 17 were 100, while August had 141 above 85, of which 8 were 100; on the other hand, June had 47 index numbers below 15, of which 9 were 0, while August had 163 below 15, of which 38 were 0.6 The tendency for prices to decline at this time (i. e., from the twenty-fourth to the thirty-first week) is accordingly not very pronounced. According to the average figures shown by Chart L X X I X the next general seasonal movement of any importance is one of advancing prices, extending from early in August to the forepart of September. The average price rose from $99.22 for the thirty-first week * One quotation is lacking in this group. &Cf. p. 217, note. to $99.49 for the thirty-sixth, the average index number rising at the same time from 52.1 to 54.9. For 19 of the 27 bonds the average price was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first, and for 8 it was lower. The same was true of the average index number. Comparing the individual years for the different bonds the following results are obtained: The price of bond No. 1 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in nine years and lower in four years. The price of bond No. 2 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in seven years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 3 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in four years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 4 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in two years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 5 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in nine years and lower in ten years. The price of bond No. 6 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in twelve years and lower in four years. The price of bond No. 7 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in nine years and lower in ten years. The price of bond No. 8 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in ten years and lower in nine years. The price of bond No. 9 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in nine years and lower in ten years. The price of bond No. 10 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in four years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 11 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in four years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 12 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in twelve years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 13 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in seven years and lower in two years. The price of bond No. 14 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in two years and lower in eighth years. The price of bond No. 15 was higher for the thrity-sixth week than for the thirty-first in thirteen years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. IS was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in eleven years and lower in eight years. The price of bond No. 17 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in eight years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 18 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in three years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 19 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in seven years and lower in twelve years. The price of bond No. 20 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in ten years and lower in six years. The price of bond No. 21 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in six years and lower in six years. The price of bond No. 22 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in five years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 23 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in seven years and lower in twelve years, The price of bond No. 24 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in ten years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 25 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in eight years and lower in six years. The price of bond No. 26 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in two years and lower in eight years. The price of bond No. 27 was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in eleven years and lower in eight years. Out of 394 bond-years the price was higher for the thirty-sixth week than for the thirty-first in 201 years, or 51 per cent, and lower in 192 years, or 48.7 per cent. o The price was the same for the two weeks in one year. SEASONAL DEMAND FO , MONEY AND CAPITAL. 215 The price of bond No. 4 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in six years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 5 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in twelve years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 6 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in twelve years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 7 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in seven years and higher in twelve years. The price of bond No. 8 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in fourteen years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 9 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in fourteen years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 10 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in nine years and higher in two years. The' price of bond No. 11 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in six years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 12 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in ten years and higher in nine years. The price of bond No. 13 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in six years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 14 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in six a years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 15 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in thirteen years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 16 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in twelve years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 17 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in five years and higher in ten years. The price of bond No. 18 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in seven years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 19 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in twelve years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 20 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in five years and higher in eleven years. The price of bond No. 1 was lower for the forty-first week than for The price of bond No. 21 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in nine years and higher in four years. the thirty-sixth in seven years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 2 was lower for the forty-first week than for The price of bond No. 22 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in six a years and higher in five years. the thirty-sixth in seven years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 3 was lower for the forty-first week than for The price of bond No. 23 was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth in five years and higher in four years. the thirty-sixth in twelve years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 24 was lower for the forty-first week than for «Cf. pp. 213-214. the thirty-sixth in twelve years and higher in five years. & Concerning an extreme example of this tendency in 1899, the ComThe price of bond No. 25 was lower for the forty-first week than for mercial and Financial Chronicle said editorially (June 24, 1899, p. the thirty-sixth in eight years and higher in six years. 1205): The price of bond No. 26 was lower for the forty-first week than for " Under these circumstances * * * securities reached prices the thirty-sixth in seven years and higher in three years. higher than ever before, not only higher than in London, but so high The price of bond No. 27 was lower for the forty-first week than for that the money they sold for here * * * could be invested in the thirty-sixth in seven years and higher in twelve years. Europe to better advantage than it could be left here. Although loans Of the 394 bond-years the price for the forty-first week increased largely they had no effect on money rates. The inflow of currency was so free that deposits all the time increased as fast or faster was lower than t h a t for the thirty-sixth in 236 years or than uses could be found for the funds. Hence * * * the money 59.9 per cent and higher in 156, or 39.6 per cent. 6 market was subject or open to no healthy checks, for there could be The thirty-sixth week had 132 index numbers above none so long as the supplies of loanable funds were apparently inex67, while the forty-first week had 94; it had 87 index haustible. Wall street likewise was thus put in position to get money at almost nominal rates and consequently able to absorb at the prevail- numbers below 34, while the forty-first week had 109. ing high prices the increasing flood of securities that was passing into it Comparing the active month of October with the slack from Europe. * * * month of J u n e we find that while J u n e had 47 index '' The source of the derangement we have suffered from is unmistaknumbers below 15, of which 9 were 0, October had 103 able. It is, too, an affair that will continue to plague us and make our below 15, of which 17 were 0.c industrial cycles short just as long as we omit to correct it. Every form of paper money we have is without the homing quality. * * * Instead of returning to the issuer when out of employment it collects, °> The price was the same for the two weeks in one year. as stated above, at our leading trade centers, makes the money market & In two different bond-years the price for the two weeks compared abnormal, fostering every kind of speculation, deranging domestic was the same. affairs and every foreign trade condition." Cf. infra, p. 216, note. cCf. infra, p. 217, note. The index number for the thirty-first week was above 67 for 135 bond-years and below 34 for 105; t h a t for the thirty-sixth week was above 67 for 132 bond-years and below 34 for 87. A study of the individual bond-years thus shows no appreciable upward tendency at this time just as it showed only a very small tendency to a decline from the twenty-fourth to the thirty-first week. The drop shown by average prices during July and the recovery during August is therefore hardly representative of any import a n t general seasonal tendency, and we may conclude t h a t despite considerable contradictory evidence, the weight of the testimony points to a tendency for prices to be moderately high from early May to early September. a This is in harmony with what would be expected from the testimony of interest rates and bank reserves, which point to an easy money market during the summer months. 6 Beginning near the middle of September prices tend downward until about the middle of October. The average price of all the bonds fell from $99.49 for the thirty-sixth week to $99.11 for the forty-first, and the average index number from 54.9 to 50. For 21 of the bonds the average price and the average index number were lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth, and for 6 they were higher. This downward tendency is shown also by the following figures for the individual bond-years: 216 NATIONAL MONKTARY COMMISSION. The evidence clearly points to a tendency for prices to decline at the time of the hardening money market incident to the beginning of the crop-moving period. 0 From about the middle of October until early in December average prices show an upward tendency. The average price of all the bonds rose from $99.11 for the forty-first week to $99.75 for the forty-ninth, the average index number rising from 50 to 56.3. Twenty-five different bonds showed higher average prices for the forty-ninth week t h a n for the forty-first, and 24 showed higher average index numbers. The movements of the bonds for the individual years show an upward tendency at this time. The price of bond No. 1 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in seven years and lower in six years. The price of bond No. 2 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in seven years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 3 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in four years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 4 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in eight years and lower in one year. The price of bond No. 5 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in eight years and lower in eleven years. The price of bond No. 6 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in eight years and lower in eight years. The price of bond No. 7 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in fourteen years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 8 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in twelve years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 9 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in eleven years and lower in eight years. The price of bond No. 10 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in six years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 11 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in five years and lower in four years. The price of bond No. 12 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in fourteen years and lower in five years. The price of bond No. 13 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in six years and lower in three years. The price of bond No. 14 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in eight years and lower in three years. The price of bond No. 15 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in sixteen years and lower in two years. The price of bond No. 16 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in ten years and lower in nine years. The price of bond No. 17 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in six years and lower in nine years. The price of bond No. 18 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in six years and lower in four years. o Concerning an extreme example of this tendency in 1899, the Commercial and Financial Chronicle said editorially (Sept. 30, 1899, p. 671), comparing the situation with that in June of the same year, previously mentioned (supra, p. 215, note): "The speculative demands for accommodation added to the extra needs for money which general business activity and the crop movement require are testing the currency system in another way. These autumn conditions bring out the same old defect, rigid inflexibility, but the derangement produced is of quite another sort. In June money was so excessive that it unduly stimulated speculation; in September it is in so short supply that the money lender is not only discriminating between borrowers and securities but accommodation is unprocurable except at very high rates. Under a proper currency system gold exports would have moderated the movement of securities toward higher prices the first half of the year before it had proceeded to the extreme it did, and consequently the need for contraction now would have thereby been greatly lessened, if not wholly avoided." The price of bond No. 19 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in thirteen years and lower in six years. The price of bond No. 20 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in nine years and lower in seven years. The price of bond No. 21 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in seven years and lower in iive years. The price of bond No. 22 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in nine years and lower in three years. The price of bond No. 23 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in thirteen years and lower in six years. The price of bond No. 24 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in eight years and lower in nine years. The price of bond No. 25 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in eight years and lower in six years. The price of bond No. 26 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in seven years and lower in three years. The price of bond No. 27 was higher for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first in thirteen years and lower in six years. Of the 394 bond-years 243, or 61.7 per cent, showed a higher price for the forty-ninth week t h a n for the fortyfirst. The forty-first week had 94 index numbers above 67, while the forty-ninth week had 180; it had 109 index numbers below 34, while the forty-ninth week had 122. This is a period of widely varying prices, 0 in which, however, the general tendency is upward. A t this time, as the crop-moving demand relaxes, the money market is inclined to be unstable. December is a transitional month for prices, as it has been found to be for so many other money market phenomena. The average price for the 27 bonds fell from $99.75 for the forty-ninth week to $99.39 for the fifty-first, and then rose to $99.58 for the fifty-second, the average index numbers for these three weeks, respectively, were 56.3, 52.2, and 55. For 23 different bonds the average price was lower for the fifty-first week t h a n for the forty-ninth, and for 22 the average index number was lower. A downward tendency at this time is clearly shown by a study of the 394 bond-years. The price of bond No. 1 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in eight years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 2 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in nine years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 3 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in five years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 4 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in four years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 5 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in eleven years and higher in eight years. The price of bond No. 6 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in thirteen years and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 7 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in thirteen years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 8 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in thirteen years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 9 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in eight years and higher in eleven years. The price of bond No. 10 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in six years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 11 was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in seven years and higher in two years. a Cf. p. 217, note. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 217 I n conclusion it may be said that the extent of the seasonal variations in bond prices is usually not great, but the that the percentage is large enough in the absolute to amount to many millions of dollars annually. The seathe sonal movements are for the most part not very pronounced in their regularity, but on the whole tend to the conform to the normal seasonal swing of the money the market. Prices tend to rise as the money market weakens in January, they tend to be low at the time of the early the spring revival, to be comparatively high during the slack summer months, to fall during the beginnings of the cropthe moving season, and then to rise again until early Decemthe ber, when they become very uncertain, but with a downward tendency. the Copies of the 28 bond charts were sent to a number of the the leading bond houses in the country and suggestions concerning the causes of the movements portrayed were the invited. The concerns to whom these inquiries were sent were nearly all very generous in their responses, and the the writer is much indebted to them for valuable suggestions, several of the more important of which are as follows: the Mr. A. G. Hoyt, of the firm of N. W. Halsey & Co., of the New York, writes under date of March 21, 1910: " T h e writer was considerably surprised to note that the the prices of the standard railroad securities which you selected reflected so accurately the variations in the time the money market. My impression is that the explanation In 239, therefore, of the 394 bond-years, i. e., 60.7 per may be found in the fact that what might be termed the cent, the price was lower for the fifty-first week than for floating supply of bonds of the character you selected is largely held by banking institutions which carry such the forty-ninth. The transitional character of the month of December bonds as a secondary reserve. Naturally such institutions is shown by the fact that December had more index num- are sellers when money is in demand and rates are high bers above 85 (i. e., 523) and more below 15 (i. e., 294) and there is a consequent depression in the bond market than any other month of the year; it had more maximum at such times; when the rates for money are low the conprices (i. e., more index numbers of 100) and more mini- verse obtains." The firm of N. W. Harris & Co., of New York, writes mum prices (i. e., more index numbers of 0) than any • other month of the year. I t is a month of extreme and under date of March 29, 1910: " T h e chart * * * showing the fluctuations in the widely fluctuating prices. a price of twenty-seven railroad bonds, as well as the seva The following table gives a summary showing the extent to which eral charts from which this has been summarized, have " v e r y h i g h " index numbers (i. e., those above 85) and " v e r y l o w " had our careful attention. index numbers (i. e., those below 15) accumulated in the different tt* * * rpj^e q U a r terly periods of January 1, April months: 1, July 1, and October 1 are the principal periods at which large distributions of dividends take place by the indusIndex Index Index Index numbers numbers numbers numbers Month. trial corporations, and two of these periods, January 1 above 85. of 100. below 15. ofO. and July 1, coincide with periods at which there is an un386 252 January 71 87 usual amount of money distributed as interest upon 423 146 February... 14 44 funded obligations. * * * 207 226 March 37 22 " A s a result of this, we would logically expect to find 280 217 35 April 26 164 85 16 May 13 at about these several times an increased activity in 143 47 9 June 17 investment in securities, which would logically show the 176 107 16 July 24 greatest activity around the January and July intervals; 141 163 38 8 August 200 158 30 September. 25 and a somewhat increased activity, but less than the 130 103 17 October 11 foregoing, at the April and October disbursement periods; 196 147 31 November.. 16 and this would seem to coincide in a rather general way 523 294 December.. 102 with the so-called 'seasonal 7 variations noted on your Total. 403 395 1,945 composite chart. * * * T h e price of bond No. 12 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in thirteen years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 13 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in seven years and higher in two years. The price of bond No. 14 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in six years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 15 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in thirteen years and higher in five years. The price of bond No. 16 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in ten years and higher in nine years. The price of bond No. 17 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in seven years and higher in eight years. The price of bond No. 18 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in four years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 19 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in twelve years and higher in seven years. • The price of bond No. 20 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in nine years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 21 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in nine yearn and higher in three years. The price of bond No. 22 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in six years and higher in six years. The price of bond No. 23 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in twelve years and higher in seven years. The price of bond No. 24 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninA in thirteen years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 25 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in six years and higher in eight years. The price of bond No. 26 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in six years and higher in four years. The price of bond No. 27 was lower for the fifty-first week than for forty-ninth in nine years and higher in ten years. the 218 NATIONAL MONErTARY COMMISSION. * * * " I t is possibly proper to comment upon some of the tendencies, such as an accumulation by dealers of bonds toward the latter part of December and the earlier part of June in anticipation of an increased demand upon the dividend and interest disbursements. The January period would logically be of briefer duration than that centering around the July disbursements because of the fact that just prior to the July distribution is the beginning of the holiday [vacation] season, continuing through July and the earlier part of August, during which period it is frequently difficult to obtain a quorum of committees or other investing boards; and along around the latter part of August and earlier part of September, the holiday [vacation] season being over, there is not infrequently an investment of the funds which may not have been entirely used up in the earlier part of July. I n many instances the investment demand of an institution would not become active until the middle of January or July, because of the fact (especially with the savings banks) that a brief period must intervene before they will know the result of their six months' operation, as the withdrawals are usually heavier after the interest period has ended, and the banks naturally desire to ascertain their exact balance before investing. " During the fall of the year we not infrequently find that call money rates will advance quite sharply, owing to the increased demand for money in order to move the crops, and dealers would at such a time be disinclined to carry any more bonds than they really need as the difference between the interest return of the bond and the cost of carrying call money would frequently show a loss at that time. " W e do not understand the seeming decline from the middle of December and the first week in January, which, according to the charts, would seem to be the most abrupt of the year and is immediately followed by an advance as marked as was the decline. We are inclined to think that the chart at this point would lead to an inaccurate conclusion, as we are inclined to think t h a t during this period the principal point to be noted would be one of decreased activity, and the only logical answer to come to our mind is that the decline noted is based upon a limited amount of transactions. As a matter of fact, we know that dealers accumulate bonds quite heavily during the latter part of November and early in December for the January market, and we believe t h a t if any material amount of bonds were bid for during the brief period in which this peculiar action is noted, that the chart would fail to show this radical change. I n other words, we are inclined to think that the decline really covers a period of inactivity rather than of price decline. " I t is of course recognized that during the last of December and the early part of January, call-money rates advance to very high figures [Cf. Chart I] in order to finance the January disbursements, and this would render it unattractive for dealers to enter the field and purchase heavily just at that time if the bonds had to be carried upon call money; but if the bonds are purchased earlier, say November or early in December when they can be carried upon time money at thirty or sixty days, the rates are sufficiently favorable to avoid the loss in carrying necessarily shown by the high rates of the end of December." This letter from N. W. Harris & Co. has been quoted at length because it is the most illuminating comment upon the price charts which has been received. If bonds of the character selected show such seasonal variations in their prices, apparently to a large degree in response to the seasonal variations in the money market, there is a strong presumption t h a t stocks and staple commodities like wheat, cotton, etc., which are dealt in upon the exchanges, are subject to like tendencies. The fact that the production of agricultural commodities is itself seasonal in character would make it very difficult to trace the influence upon their prices exercised by seasonal variations in the money market. If, however, such variations influence the price of bonds the presumption is strong, as previously stated, that ft influences the prices of other articles for which there is a wide and speculative market. 0 This suggests an important field for future investigations. COMMERCIAL F A I L U R E S . (Chart LXXX and Tables X X I I I and 48.) The next subject to consider is t h a t of commercial failures. 6 To what extent is there a regular seasonal variation in their number, and does it show any correlation with the normal seasonal swing in the money market ? To answer these questions the weekly figures for the number of commercial failures throughout the United States, as computed by Bradstreet's, have been compiled for the nineteen years (1890-1908), and the results are summarized in the following table and chart: a For example, to the extent that the farmer sells his products in the early fall he sells at prices which, under our inelastic currency system, tend to be depressed. It is doubtful whether seasonal variations in the money market affect to any appreciable extent the prices of the things the average farmer buys. & In his study of this subject the writer is indebted for valuable suggestions to Mr. James H. Brookmire, of the firm of Simon, Brookmire & Clifford, of St. Louis, Mo. Mr. Brookmire's chart on Monthly Record of Failures in the United States, 1894-1909, has been especially suggestive. The writer is also under obligation for assistance to Bradstreet's Mercantile Agency and to R. G. Dun & Co. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 219 TABLE XXIII.—Seasonal variations in the number of commercial failures in the United States. Averagefiguresfor the period 1890-1908.° Month and week. Jan.— 1 2 3.. 4 . . . . Feb.-- 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 . . . . Apr.—13 14 . . . 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21 June—22 23 24 25 July—26 Average number of failures.a 342 339 317 282 257 251 244 215 218 218 216 204 195 195 197 197 194 194 200 195 194 179 201 200 20], bl78 Average index number. M o n t h a n d week. 85.0 J u l y - - 27 85.0 28 75.3 29 60.2 30 48.3 1 A u g . - - 3 1 46.3 32 42.6 33 29.9 34 30.6 Sept.- - 3 5 31.3 36 31.0 37 26.0 38 22.2 39 2L6 O c t . - - 40 22.7 41 22.2 42 21.6 43 20.2 N o v . -- 4 4 23.5 45 20.5 46 19.7 47 13.0 D e c . - - 48 23.2 49 22.4 50 22.8 51 614.6 52 Average number of failures.a 191 215 220 211 201 195 200 198 184 187 197 209 191 210 221 227 215 208 224 249 239 248 280 286 &259 c240 Average index number. 18.1 28.7 28.8 25.5 21.5 21.6 20.8 19.5 14.1 14.8 20.8 25.9 18.8 26.0 31.7 35.3 29.2 25.4 32.5 44.7 35.3 43.0 57.4 60.8 651.2 C50.8 a These figures were compiled from the figures given each week in Bradstreet's. Figures for the individual years 1890-1908, are given in Table 48 of the Appendix (pp. 511-512). t> This average covers only eighteen years. c This average covers only seventeen years. The first point to attract attention in studying the chart is the very large number of commercial failures during the fore part of January. Both in average number of failures and in average index figure a the first three weeks of the year are clearly the highest three. For these three weeks, respectively, the average number of failures were 342, 339, and 317, and the average index figures were 85, 85, and 75.3. The fourth highest average weekly number of failures was 286 (fiftieth week), and the fourth highest average index figure was 60.8 (fiftieth week). For the first week the minimum index figure was 40.1. Thirteen of the nineteen index figures for that week were above 75, of which nine were 100. The minimum index figure for the second week was 36.7, and fifteen index figures for that week were above 75, of which five were 100. For the third week the minimum index figure was 33.6; twelve index figures for that week were 75 or above, of which two were 100. The evidence shows clearly that the first three weeks of the year are weeks in which relatively large numbers of failures normally occur. Both the liabilities and the assets of January failures (in the aggregate) tend to be high. 6 a In the remainder of this chapter the expression "index figure " will be used instead of "index number" to avoid confusion in discussing the number of failures. & Of. Brookmire's chart, cited p. 218, note (b). After the first two weeks in January there is a rapid decline in the number of commercial failures until the forepart of April. The average number of failures fell from 339 for the second week to 195 for the fourteenth, the average index figure falling at the same time from 85 to 21.6. While the lowest index figure for the second week was 36.7, and fifteen index figures for that week were above 75, the highest index figure for the fourteenth week was 45.5, and twelve index figures for that week were below 25. The tendency for a decline at this time is accordingly very pronounced. With the exception of the minor movement, to be described later, consisting in an upward movement in the number of failures during most of July and a decline throughout August, the curves for commercial failures run very low from early April until the forepart of September, when they begin an upward movement. Of the four hundred and thirty-seven index figures occurring from the fourteenth to the thirty-sixth week, inclusive, of the nineteen years, three hundred and seventy-six were below 34, of which two hundred and twenty-eight were below 20 and twenty were 0. The advance from the twenty-sixth to the twenty-ninth week (i. e., the first three weeks of July) and the subsequent decline to the thirty-fifth week (first of September) are of sufficient regularity to deserve passing notice. The average number of failures rose from 178 for the twenty- CHART LXXX. (220) SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. sixth week to 220 for the twenty-ninth and then fell to 184 for the thirty-fifth. The corresponding average index figures were 14.6, 28.8, and 14.1. I n fifteen of the eighteen a years the number of failures was greater for the twenty-ninth week than for the twenty-sixth, the three exceptional years being 1897, 1904, and 1905. The twenty-sixth week had fifteen (out of eighteen) index figures below 25, while the twenty-ninth week had but eight (out of nineteen) below 25. I n all the nineteen years but one (i. e., 1896) there were less failures in the thirty-fifth week than in the twenty-ninth. The thirtyfifth week had sixteen index figures below 25, of which three were 0, while the twenty-ninth had but eight below 25, of which the lowest was 11.6. The sudden but temporary increase in the number of failures in July is obviously very regular in its occurrence. Beginning early in September commercial failures show a strong tendency to increase until about the middle of January. Comparing the thirty-fifth week with the fiftieth6—the last two weeks of the year are not exactly representative because of the holiday season—we observe the following evidence for an upward tendenc}^ in the number of failures: The average number of failures rose from 184 for the thirty-fifth week to 286 for the fiftieth, and then fell to 240 for the fifty-second; the corresponding average index figures were 14.1, 60.8, and 50.8. In every one of the nineteen years, except the year 1893, the number of failures was substantially larger for the fiftieth week than for the thirty-fifth; in twelve of the seventeen years for which comparable figures are available, the number of failures was less for the fifty-second week than for the fiftieth. The thirty-fifth week had sixteen index figures below 25 of which three were 0; the minimum index figure for the fiftieth week was 35.7 and thirteen index figures for that week were 50 or above; the minimum index figure for the fifty-second week was 19.5 and five index figures for that week were above 50. A general tendency for an increasing number of failures from early September to about the middle of December is therefore clearly discernible. The figures upon which the above conclusions concerning commercial failures have been based are the weekly figures of Bradstreet's Mercantile Agency for the period 1890-1908. As is well known, similar figures concerning commercial failures are regularly compiled by R. G. Dun & Co. Dun's figures for numbers of commercial failures and for liabilities of commercial failures have been studied for quarterly periods for the thirty-five years 1875-1909 with the object of discovering to what extent a Figures are not available for the twenty-sixth week in 1893. h Inasmuch as in the Chart each year is taken as a unit and the December index figures are not comparable with the January index figures of "the succeeding year," we shall limit our discussion here to the period ending with the calendar year. Cf. supra, pp. 13-15 and 22. 221 tbe^ show a seasonal swing. a Without citing the detailed figures, the results of this study may be summed up as follows. The average number of failures for the four quarters respectively of the thirty-five years, 18751909, and the average quarterly liabilities were: First quarter. Second quarter. Third quarter. 2,354 Average number of failures.. 2,333 3,183 $36,077,336 Average quarterly liabilities $42,554,286 $35,981,626 Average index figure of number of 10.4 91.5 failures 9.5 Average index figure of quarterly 79.0 23.1 liabilities of failures 32.7 Fourth quarter. 2,909 $40,183,812 64.9 65.8 For twenty-seven of the thirty-five years, the maximum number of failures occurred in the first quarter, and for the other eight years it occurred in the fourth quarter; for fifteen of the thirty-five years the maximum quarterly liabilities were in the first quarter, for fifteen they were in the fourth quarter, for three they were in the second quarter, and for two they were in the third quarter. On the other hand, for fourteen of the thirty-five years the minimum number of failures occurred in the second quarter, for twenty years it occurred in the third quarter, and for one year in the fourth quarter; for four years the minimum quarterly liabilities occurred in the first quarter, for twelve years they occurred in the second quarter, for sixteen years in the third quarter, and for three years in the fourth quarter.^ The Dun figures accordingly substantiate the testimony given by the Bradstreet figures. What is the explanation of this marked seasonal swing in the number (and also the liabilities) of commercial failures ? Obviously one of the chief causes for the large number of failures in December and January consists in the custom among business concerns of taking account of stock in December, and of closing accounts for the year's business. Many small concerns really do not know where they stand until about this time of the year. Many financial obligations, moreover, become due January 1, and it is customary in many places for banks to require statements of customers at about this time. In early January business concerns are commonly facing a period of inactive business (p. 28). Similar conditions in general exist, although on a much smaller scale, during the few weeks before and after July 1, and probably account for the movements in commercial failures noted (p. 219) as occurring at that time. Concerns which survive the a The Dun figures were compiled from Dun's Review, Oct. 3, 1908, p. 4, and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle, Jan. 8, 1910, p. 79. Mr. R. W. Hamlet, a student in Cornell University, did the work of computing the averages, etc., for the Dun figures, as a class exercise in my course in Money and Banking. b Cf. Jevons, Investigations in Currency, etc. (London, 1884), p. 220, and chart. 222 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. December-January strain are liable to be able to continue during the spring and the slack summer months. As the fall approaches, and the money market hardens in response to crop moving demands, as interest rates rise, bank reserves decline, and loans are curtailed, as securities tend to decline, and increased margins are called for, the strain on the weaker business concerns is liable to become more tense. While, of course, it would be rash to say that the tightened money market in the fall is the cause of the large number of failures at this period, it seems reasonable to expect that the strained money market at this time would tend to push over many concerns which were already near the verge of failure. I know of no other explanation for the large number of failures during October and November. The period of the spring trade revival is so brief and such a short time after the " cleaning-up " period of December and January that it normally occasions few failures. I n March, however, the Chart shows a temporary interruption in the decline of the curves for commercial failures. PANICS. I n the opening chapter of this report (p. 13) it was said that the subject of currency " inelasticity is sometimes considered with particular reference to panic periods which occur at more or less irregular and widely separated times, and sometimes with particular reference to regularly recurring seasonal fluctuations in the demand for money and loanable c a p i t a l / ' and that " t h i s study is concerned primarily with such seasonal fluctuations." A discussion of commercial and financial panics does not fall within the province of this report. The relation of such panics, however, to seasonal fluctuations in the money market is deserving of brief consideration. Nearly half a century ago Jevons said " we * * * see that the most striking [seasonal] fluctuations are due to the gathering of the harvest, and the general termination of the year's operations. The consequences are a rapid rise in the rate of discount, a sudden flood of bankruptcy, and a fall of consols, followed by a rise. The double minimum in the price of wheat and consols is curious. "Some, perhaps, would attribute the sudden changes in the rate of discount, bankruptcies, and consols to the occurrence of panics during the months of October and November. I t would be more correct to say that there is a periodic tendency to commercial distress and difficulty during these months, of which all concerned should be aware. I t is when great irregular fluctuations aggravate this distress, as in the years 1836, 1839, 1847, and 1857, t h a t disastrous breaches in commercial credit occur. " a Three years later (i. e., 1865) referring to the above statement made in 1862 he wrote: " I n two of the three succeeding years, namely, 1863 and 1865, this autumnal pressure has been strikingly manifested, and « Investigations in currency, etc. (London, 1884), pp. 8 and 9. these occurrences, considered in connection with the fact that since 1825 all the severest pressures have either commenced or culminated in the last quarter of the year, are sufficient prima facie evidence of a dangerous tendency in these months worthy of the deliberate attention of commercial m e n . " a I t would seem reasonable to expect t h a t panics would be most liable to occur in those seasons of the year when the money market is normally most stringent, on the principle that a chain will break at its weakest link. F o r the purpose of testing the truth of this theory the following facts are given with reference to the dates of the more important recent panics 6 in this country: The panic of 1873 began shortly after the middle of September. 0 In 1884 the financial storm burst on May \4t,d The crisis of 1890 began November 10 and extended to November 2 1 ; the early December market, however, recorded some of the lowest prices of the year. 6 The beginning of the panic of 1893 is perhaps best marked by the failure of the National Cordage Company on May 5 r although the Philadelphia and Reading Railroad Company went into bankruptcy on February 20; f June was a month of great distress in financial circles, and the panic was at its worst in August. The Chronicle said in its issue of December 23, 1899: " T h e current week has been signalized by one of the most severe short panics ever experienced at the Stock Exchange/' The so-called "Northern Pacific panic" occurred on the 9th of May, 1901, giving rise to " t h e worst collapse in prices witnessed on the stock exchange since the panic of 1873."^ I t is difficult to assign a definite period to the "rich man's panic" of 1903, it extended through the greater part of the year, but its beginnings may perhaps best be assigned to March. I t was most severe during the four months of May to August.^ In 1907 there was a severe collapse in the stock market in March/' b u t the real panic did not break out until the latter part of October. The Knickerbocker Trust Company suspended October 22, and other important failures then followed rapidly. I t has been found that the two periods of the year in which the money market is most likely to be strained are the periods of the "spring revival," about March, April, and early May, and that of the crop-moving demand in the fall; and that the two periods of easiest money market are the "readjustment" period, extending from about the middle of January to nearly the 1st of March, and the period of the summer depression, extending through the a Investigations in currency, etc. (London, 1884), p. 164. & Cf. p 223, note (a). c Jay Cooke & Co., the First National Bank of Washington, and the First National Bank of Philadelphia suspended September 18. Cf. Com. and Fin. Chron., for Sept. 20, 1873. d Ibid., Jan. 3, 1885. elbid., Jan. 3, 1891. / Noyes, Forty years of American Finance, pp. 188 and 189. g Chronicle, Jan. 4, 1902. ft Ibid., Jan. 2, 1904. i Ibid., Jan. 4, 1908. SEASONAL DEMAND FO : MONEY AND CAPITAL. three summer months. Of the eight panics a mentioned above, four occurred in the fall or early winter (i. e., those of 1873, 1890, 1899, and 1907), and these four included two of the three really severe panics of the period (i. e., those of 1873 and 1907); three occurred in May (i. e., thoseof 1884, 1893, and 1901); and one (i.e., that of 1903), probably the least important one from the standpoint of the country as a whole—extended from March until well along in November. 6 The evidence accordingly points to a tendency for panics to occur during the seasons normally characterized by stringent money markets. This does not mean that the seasonal stringencies are the causes of the panics; it does mean that the months in which they occur are the weakest links in the seasonal chain, and that in periods of extraordinary tension the chain breaks at these links. CHAPTER IX.—SUMMARY. I t is difficult to summarize a study of this kind in a few pages. While there is a considerable amount of uniformity in the seasonal movements of the money market in the different sections of the United States, conditions in these sections are so different that the seasonal movements in each one are much influenced by local conditions, and the dates at which the same seasonal swings begin and end in different sections often differ considerably. Useful generalizations in such a case can not be both broad and accurate, and the text of this report is itself so condensed that brief generalizations, with the qualifications necessary for accuracy, would be largely a repetition of the previous chapters. A detailed summary is further rendered unnecessary by the eighty diagram charts which summarize more accurately and more effectively than could any descriptive chapter the conclusions of the report. SCOPE AND METHOD. The object of the report is to throw light upon the extent, regularity, and effects of seasonal variations in the principal money markets of the United States. a The word panic has been used here to cover several financial disturbances for which many would not use so strong a word, i. e., the disturbances of 1884, 1890, 1899, and 1901. & A rather hasty perusal of the Chronicle for the years 1876 to 1908, inclusive, shows, in addition to the panics mentioned above, the following minor "panicky periods": April, 1876; November, 1879; MayJune, 1880; March-April, 1882, June, 1887,; March-April, 1888; February, 1893; September to December, 1895; June-July, 1896; December, 1896; March, 1898; September, 1899; July, 1901; September, 1901; September to November, 1902; December, 1904; April, 1905; AprilMay, 1906; December, 1906; March, 1907; September, 1908. This list is probably not complete, and there may be room for doubt as to the inclusion of some of the dates mentioned. It is not, I believe, open to the fallacy of selection for all months of the year were given equal attention in the search for such periods. The list shows nine during the fall and early winter (September to December, inclusive), eight in the spring (March to May, inclusive), one of which began in May and extended into June, three during the summer months, and one in February, or a total of 21 such periods. 223 The period studied is the nineteen years 1890-1908. Different cities are selected as representative of different sections of the country. New York City, being the country's dominant financial center, is treated as representative of the Eastern States and New England, and to a considerable extent of the country as a whole. Chicago and St. Louis represent the Middle Western States, 0 New Orleans represents the Southern States, and San Francisco the Pacific States. Seasonal movements are portrayed principally by the use of a seasonal index number, computed as follows: Each of the nineteen years 1890-1908 is taken as a unit. The lowest rate each year, i. e., the rate representing the cheapest money, is designated by an index number of 0, the highest rate by an index number 100, and the other rates are prorated. 6 The index numbers for the first week of each of the nineteen years are then averaged together, those for the second week, and so on throughout the fifty-two weeks. The resulting composite gives the index of seasonal movements. This index is supplemented in most cases by the simple average of the rates (or figures), those for the nineteen first weeks, the nineteen second weeks, and so on. The order of discussion is: first, seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced by interest rates and percentages of bank reserves to deposits; second, seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in different sections of the country as evidenced by domestic exchange rates in certain cities on New York City, currency shipments, and subtreasury transfers; third, seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in the United States as compared with foreign countries as evidenced by foreign exchange rates and gold imports and exports; fourth, seasonal variations in the supply of various kinds of money; fifth, seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency as evidenced by clearing-house transactions; sixth, some influences of seasonal variations in the money market as seen in the prices of bonds, commercial failures, and the occurrence of commercial panics. SEASONAL MOVEMENTS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEYED CAPITAL IN NEW YORK CITY. With regard to seasonal movements in the relative demand for moneyed capital the New York money market exhibits five important seasonal swings. Throughout January and during the early part of February there is normally a pronounced "easing u p " of the money market. By the fore part of January the crop-moving demand for money in the West and South is over and the return flow of cash is at its height. There is a natural reaction—in part psychological—which results from the relaxing of the heavy strain on the money market incident to January 1 settlements and to the passing of the holier The data available for the " Western States" are too incomplete to justify the study of this group separately. b Cf., pp. 13-15, and 22. Cf., p. 117. 224 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. day season. At this time freight traffic, both on the railroads and the inland waterways, is relatively small. The second seasonal movement is the spring revival, beginning about the middle of February and extending to the latter part of March or the fore part of April—(in some years a week or so later). This recovery is stimulated by the cheap money prevailing during the preceding period, railroad traffic is released from the incubus of cold weather and snow, the inland waterways are opened u p ; on April 1 comes the demand for large interest and dividend settlements, and in this period comes the spring demand of agriculturists for the planting of crops. The third important seasonal movement is the weakening money market of the late spring, followed by the summer depression. This period extends from the middle or latter part of April to the fore part of August. I t is interrupted by a temporary reaction about July 1, the time of semiannual settlements. This third seasonal period shows the natural reaction from the high rates of the preceding period, the anticipation and later the realization of the hot months of summer comprising the vacation period, the lessened demand for funds in the Middle West after the planting of the crops, and the resulting return of cash to New York for deposit, investment, and speculation. The declining and cheap money market at this time, which finds expression in such phenomena as large bank reserves, low-interest rates, gold exportations, and high security prices, naturally brings its own corrective to some extent. The crop-moving period is the fourth period. This period, the discounted beginnings of which are evidenced by the upward turn of interest rates on sixty to ninety day commercial paper and four months' time paper as early as the first week in July, may perhaps best be dated from the first week in August when call rates begin their upward movement and when bank reserves begin their decline. Under the pressure of the crop-moving demand for cash in the West and South, bank reserves are depleted and the money market tightens rapidly until about October 1. The fifth and last seasonal period in the New York money market extends from about the first week in October to the opening of the new year. I t is a period of considerable uncertainty and of many minor fluctuations, b u t the demand for moneyed capital continues large until after the holiday season and January settlements. The westward movement of cash falls off rapidly in November and December, and b y the latter month the return flow has set in. The southward movement declines in November, b u t shows some signs of increasing temporarily in December. Gold imports reach a low point in December; throughout October, November, and December the Federal Treasury Department normally continues to increase its deposits in national banks, of which New York City gets its share. SEASONAL MOVEMENTS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEYED CAPITAL IN OTHER REPRESENTATIVE CITIES. Passing from New York City to Chicago we find, as might be expected, a striking similarity in the important seasonal movements in the money markets of the two cities. a There are the same five principal seasonal movements taking place at approximately the same times of the year and influenced largely by the same causes. The third city studied is St. Louis. Like New York and Chicago, the St. Louis money market exhibits a January decline, an early spring revival, a late spring decline continued by a summer depression, and a sharp advance in the fall. The St. Louis seasonal swing differs from the seasonal swings of New York and Chicago principally in the fact that it exhibits a sharp decline in November, followed by a reaction extending until the latter part of December. 6 There are considerable differences, moreover, in the times at which the different seasonal movements begin and end in St. Louis from those in Chicago and New York. St. Louis, being in the midst of the great agricultural section which creates " t h e crop-moving demand for money," naturally relaxes from the crop-moving strain earlier than do the cities farther east from which funds are so largely drawn and to which they return. I n St. Louis there is apparently a sort of "breathing spell" between the decline of the crop-moving demand and the rise of the holiday and "first of the year settlement" demand. As representative of the Southern States the city of New Orleans was chosen. Here the seasonal swing in the money market differs from those of New York and Chicago even more than does t h a t of St. Louis. The January decline is of such short duration as to be almost negligible. Bank reserves decline rapidly from early in January until the beginning of May, but this is apparently not due so much to a demand for funds at home as to the transfer of money for deposit and investment to other markets during the slack season in the region contributory to New Orleans. The New Orleans market, like those of other cities studied, is weak during the hot summer months of June and July, but begins to grow stronger by August and reaches its strongest point of the year during the crop-moving months of September, October, and early November. The last period of the year in the New Orleans money market is one of readjustment and liquidation, following the heavy demands of the crop-moving period. I t extends from the fore part of November to the end of the year, and is a period of comparatively strong though gradually weakening market, and seems to resemble more closely the markets of New York and Chicago for this period than t h a t of St. Louis. The San Francisco market, which has been chosen as representative of the Pacific States, is probably more oCf. for example Curves U E " of Charts V and VII. 6Of. Curves " E " of Charts V, VII, and IX. SEASONAL DEMAND FO largely influenced by purely local conditions than any of the other money markets studied. I t exhibits seven fairly pronounced seasonal movements as follows: (1) The usual January decline. (2) A progressive "hardening 7 ' from about the 1st of February until nearly the middle of March. I n addition to the forces bringing about this spring revival in other cities, such as the natural reaction and readjustment after the January decline, and the spring demands of agriculturists; the local tax situation in California is an important factor. a (3) The third period is one of an easier money market. I t begins about the middle of March, and continues until the last of April, being temporarily interrupted at the time of quarterly disbursements, about the first week in April. This movement, like the former, is largely the result of the local tax system. 6 (4) From the last of April until the latter part of June the San Francisco market is comparatively strong, under the influence of the demands for the annual fruit packing business, and of fishing companies preparing for long fishing trips. (5) The fifth period extends from the last of June to about the last of September. Like the summer months in the other cities studied it is a period of comparatively small demand for loanable capital. (6) The sixth seasonal period is the crop-moving period, extending from about the last of September until the latter part of November. I t is a period of rapidly increasing or large relative demand for moneyed capital. The demand comes largely from the need of funds for moving dried fruits and canned fruits and for financing the hay and grain crops. An important factor in the market at this time is the local tax situation. 0 (7) The seventh and last seasonal movement in the San Francisco market covers the last few weeks in the year and begins anywdiere from the latter part of November to the middle of December, according to the lateness of the season. It is a period of reaction and decline after the strong market of the preceding period. SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN THE RELATIVE DEMAND FOR MONEY IN DIFFERENT SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. The next topic treated is " Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in different sections of the country as evidenced by domestic exchange rates and currency shipments/ 7 Figures for domestic exchange rates were compiled directly from the banks' records and cover a period of ten years, 1899-1908. Figures for currency movements were collected from the banks by the National Monetary Commission, and cover only four years (1905-1908). Starting with the New England States and moving westward, considering each geographic section first with reference to the Eastern States, we may briefly summarize the principal seasonal movements as follows: Currency movements to and from New England are principal^ to and from the Eastern States (almost <*Cf. p . 49. 16065°- 11 &Cf. p . 50. 15 cCf. p . 51. MONEY AND CAPITAL. 225 entirely New York City). In January there is a strong movement of cash from New England to New York City, in part the result of large purchases of cotton by manufacturers in Massachusetts and vicinity, and in part probably the result of the return flow of cash to the banks after the holiday demand and of the call for New York remittances in settlement of holiday purchases. February shows a comparatively small movement of cash in both directions. March and April are characterized by heavy shipments of cash from New York City to New England, caused in part by the heavy demand for remittances to Massachusetts manufacturers by western and southern jobbers, and in part probably by the spring needs of New England farmers. May, June, and July appear to be moderately inactive months so far as currency movements between New England and the Eastern States are concerned, with some flow of cash in both directions, but no great preponderance in one direction over the other. For August, September, and October the movement is toward New England. The August movement is at least in part due to the preparation on the part of New England bankers for an anticipated difficulty in getting funds from New York in the autumn when New York banks are subject to such large calls from the West and South. The September and October movement is largely due to the remittances made at that time by jobbers in the West and South m settlement of accounts for the purchase of shoes, dry goods, and other articles of New England manufacture. For November and December cash tends to flow from New England to New York City in response to the large purchases of cotton by New England manufacturers during these months, the drafts upon the mills for cotton coming mainly through New York. The relative demand for money in the Middle Western States as compared with the Eastern States during the different seasons is evidenced in Chapter 3, principally by: (1) domestic exchange rates in Chicago on New York (1899-1908), (2) domestic exchange rates in St. Louis on New York (1899-1908), (3) currency shipments between the Middle Western States and the Eastern States (1905-1908). New York exchange in Chicago is normally high throughout January, and there is a strong movement of cash from Chicago to New York at that time. The crop moving and holiday demand being over, money tends to be relatively cheap in Chicago and flows to New York City, where it can at least earn the 2 per cent paid by banks on bankers' balances, and where it is absorbed somewhat in speculative activity and in the higher security prices which normally rule the latter part of January and the fore part of February. From the last of January to the fore part of March New York exchange tends to fall and shipments of cash from Chicago to the Eastern States are very small. During this period the demand for money in Chicago is increased by the anticipated opening of navigation on the Great Lakes, the demand on 226 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. the part of western bankers for currency to meet the spring needs of farmers, and by the fact that the first of March in many sections of the Middle West is the commonest time for making settlements of interest and principal on farm mortgages. New York exchange reaches its minimum (for this part of the year) early in March, and then advances rapidly until it reaches its maximum for the year the latter part of May. I t then continues at a high level until early in July, when the crop moving demand begins to make itself felt. Chicago banks reported relatively small receipts of cash from the Eastern States during April, May, and June, while their shipments to the Eastern States were large during these months. About the first of July New York exchange begins to fall in response to the crop-moving demand, declining rapidly, with minor interruptions, until early in September, and then maintaining a low level until the fore part of November. There is a strong movement of currency from the Eastern States to Chicago in August, September, and October, reaching its maximum for the year in October. During the last seven or eight weeks of the year, the crop moving demand having subsided, New York exchange tends to rise, a and the return movement of cash to the East begins. The seasonal movements in New York exchange in St. Louis are so similar to those in Chicago that a review of them may be omitted here. The seasonal currency movements previously mentioned between Chicago and the Eastern States are fairly representative of those between the Middle Western States as a whole and the Eastern States, so that a summary of the latter movements may be omitted. Currency movements between the Middle Western States and the Southern States are large and afford valuable evidence as to the seasonal variations in the demand for money in the two sections compared with each other. January is clearly the month of largest receipts by the Middle Western States from the Southern States. This January movement is apparently the return movement of cash after the crop-moving demand in the South has subsided, and it is largely to the central reserve cities of St. Louis and Chicago—principally the former. While there is a pronounced falling off in February in this flow of cash to the Middle Western States it continues, nevertheless, in substantial amounts for several months, with May as the second highest month of the year. Beginning about the first of May the banks in the winter-wheat section are called upon to finance the winter-wheat crop, and this fact may explain in part the strong movement of cash from the South in May. Keceipts of the Middle Western States from the Southern States decline rapidly from June to November, and, contemporaneously, there is an increasing movement of cash in the opposite direction, culminating in October, and apparently showing a The average figures show a temporary decline of some importance in the forty-eighth and forty-ninth weeks. that, despite the great needs of the Middle West for cash in the crop-moving season, the needs of the South are sufficiently greater to make the flow of cash strongly southward from the Middle West. September and October have been found to be clearly the months of largest movements of cash from the Middle Western States to the Southern States, while January has been found to be the month of largest movement of cash in the opposite direction. November and December, particularly the latter, show considerable movements of cash in both directions, and may perhaps best be classed as transitional months. During the four years 1905-1908 reported receipts of the Middle Western States from the Western States amounted to $71,684,000 and reported shipments to the Western States amounted to $135,339,000. The principal seasonal movements evidenced by these figures are as follows: January is the month of largest flow of cash from the Western States to the Middle Western States. This eastward movement is apparently the return flow to the large cities after the disappearance of the crop-moving demand. The movement of cash to the Middle Western States from the Western States declines in February to a moderate level, which it maintains until November, when there is a decline to the lowest figure in the year, followed by a pronounced advance in December. During the five months February to June, inclusive, shipments by the Middle Western States to the Western States were comparatively small. With the opening of summer a flow of cash to the Western States begins, becoming strong by August and culminating in October. The cash movements between the Middle Western States and the Pacific States are not of sufficient importance to be summarized here. With reference to seasonal variations in the relative demand for money in the Southern States, the evidence consists principally in the figures for New York exchange in New Orleans for the ten years 1899-1908 and the figures for currency movements between the Southern States and other geographic sections. Those between the Southern States and the Middle Western States have already been summarized. Those between the Southern States and the Eastern States are the only others of sufficient importance to demand attention in this place. New York exchange in New Orleans shows the usual advance during the fore part of January in response to the demands for New York funds for deposit and investment during the slack season in the South. As the funds are transferred there is naturally a decline (extending from about the third to the eighth week), after which exchange exhibits no important seasonal movements until about the middle of May. From then until about the middle of June exchange tends to advance. During the next three weeks there is a reaction, followed by a temporary advance extending from about the middle of July to the middle of August. The southern cropmoving demand begins in earnest about the middle of SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. August, bills against crop shipments are offered in large quantities, and exchange is forced down rapidly and almost continuously until the minimum rates of the year are reached in the fore part of November. The crop-moving demand having reached its high point about the forty-fifth week the return flow of cash from the near-by agricultural communities to the New Orleans banks sets in, money becomes more plentiful, and exchange rates advance, the upward movement being expedited by the holiday demand for New York exchange and by the demand incident to January settlements. Currency movements between the Southern States and the Eastern States may be summarized as follows: January is the month of strongest movement of cash from the South toward the Eastern States. The five months February to June, inclusive, are months of moderate movements of cash toward the Eastern States. Beginning with July there is an increasing movement in the opposite direction, culminating in September and October, when the crop-moving demand is at its height. I n November and December there is considerable movement in both directions, and those months may best be classed as transitional months between the southward crop-moving flow of September and October and the northward return flow of January. The data available concerning the Western States are too meager to demand attention here, and we may next summarize the conclusions with reference to San Francisco and the Pacific States. Our figures for New York exchange in San Francisco cover the eight years 19011908. The San Francisco domestic exchange market is in many respects a peculiar one a by reason of its great distance from New York City, the extensive use of gold coin on the Pacific coast, the large receipts of gold bullion, and the facilities offered by the United States Treasury Department for transfer of new gold from San Francisco to other places. From the beginning of January until about the first of March New York exchange in San Francisco rises rapidly. January and February are months of relatively large shipments of cash from San Francisco to the Eastern States. Among the principal causes may be mentioned : the fact that advances which have been made for the movement of general crops are being repaid rapidly, the demand for eastern remittances to pay bills incurred for holiday purchases, and the desire of local taxpayers to get movable funds out of the State the latter part of February before the tax returns of the first Monday in March are made to the assessor. From the fore part of March to the fore part of June the general tendency of New York exchange is upward, although there are minor interruptions. March, April, and May are months of comparatively small shipments of cash by San Francisco to the Eastern States, and the shipments in the opposite direction are of little importance. The causes of this movement are principally local and are discussed on «Cf. pp. 118-119. 227 pages 119-120. During the latter part of June New York exchange temporarily advances, probably in response to demand for remittances east to meet July settlements. Exchange rates decline from about the first week in July to the fore part of September. This decline is not sufficient to bring about the shipment of cash to San Francisco from the Eastern States. I t is, however, sufficient to reduce the eastward flow of cash, and to lead to substantial transfers to San Francisco through the United States subtreasury in New York. The decline is probably due to the large amount of eastern credits available localty at this time from the shipments of California products, especially green fruits, to eastern points. From about the middle of September to the latter part of October New York exchange tends to rule at near par. During this period the outward movements of grain, green fruit, and fish tend to force exchange down, while the facts that this is the quarter of large receipts of gold from Alaska, making it a period of large receipts of gold bullion at the mint, and that the San Francisco mint makes returns for this gold in gold coin or New York exchange at the option of the owner of the bullion, tend to keep New York exchange at par. Exchange falls rapidly from the latter part of October to about the first of December, when it reaches the lowest point of the year. Shipments of cash between San Francisco and the Eastern States are unimportant during this period. November and December, however, are the months of largest transfers of cash to San Francisco by the United States subtreasury in New York. The fall in exchange at this time appears to be due primarily to the outward movement of dried fruits and to the fact that this is the active part of the northern grain season. The low point of the year is reached about the last week in November, when the tax collector for the city and county of San Francisco has been accustomed to withdraw large sums of actual coin from circulation, and to lock much of it up in the vaults of the city hall. a Toward the end of the year the demand for eastern remittances for January 1 settlements tends to force New York exchange upward. The principal seasonal tendencies with reference to currency shipments between the Pacific States and the Eastern States are as follows: January, and to a lesser degree, February are months of comparatively large shipments by the Pacific States to the Eastern States. Beginning with February, however, the eastward movement of cash diminishes until May. The three summer months are months during which there is usually a substantial movement of cash from the Pacific States to the Eastern States, and during which there is practically no movement in the opposite direction. There is comparatively little movement of cash in either direction in September. For the last three months of the year the evidence appears to be contradictory, and not to point to any regular seasonal tendency. 228 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. FOREIGN EXCHANGE. fluctuations. It has, however, by no means destroyed the normal seasonal swing of the exchange market, as many persons seem to believe. " Seasonal variations in the relative demand for money as evidenced by foreign exchange rates " is the next imMONEY IN CIRCULATION. portant topic studied. The underlying principle is that exchange rates (expressed in terms of the money of the The next topic considered is "Seasonal variations in home country) rise when money at home becomes rela- the amounts of the various kinds of money in circulatively less valuable than money abroad, and that they fall tion/ 7 Gold coin, gold certificates, and national-bank when it becomes relatively more valuable. A sterling notes are grouped together under the term "presumably rate in New York, for example, of $4.88 means that elastic money/' and all other kinds of money under the American money is less valuable in terms of English term "presumably inelastic money." The figures upon money than does a rate of $4.84. Relatively redundant which the conclusions of the report are based are the money forces exchange up toward the gold-export point, monthly figures of the Treasury Department for the nineand relatively scarce money forces it down toward the teen years, 1890-1908. gold-import point. The "gold circulation" (including coin and certificates) Seasonal variations in London, Berlin, and Paris ex- remains fairly constant during the first seven months of change rates in New York are discussed in chapter 5, but the year (increasing slightly in February, decreasing inasmuch as sterling exchange so largely dominates the slightly in March, increasing slightly in April and May, others it will be sufficient here to summarize the con- and decreasing slightly in June and July). From July to clusions with reference to the rates on London. The the end of the year it increases continually, the most profigures studied cover the nineteen years 1890-1908. nounced increase being in October and November. This Sterling exchange rates normally rise throughout Jan- increase in the gold circulation in the fall is in part due uary and the fore part of February. Gold movements to to the large gold importations which normally take place and from the United States at this time are generally not at that time in response to the crop-moving demand, and large; the tendency, however, is toward exportation. In in part to what appears to be merely " a happy coinciLondon the money market tends to be reasonably strong dence,*1 I. e., the fact that economic conditions with refin January, weakening, however, in February. From the erence to the mining, transporting, smelting, and refinlatter part of February until the latter part of March the ing of gold are such that the largest gold deposits are tendency of sterling exchange rates is slightly downward. made at the mints and assay offices in the fall months March is a moderately weak month in the London money (especially October), the very time when money market market. Sterling exchange in New York advances rap- conditions are such that gold is most needed. Most of idly from the latter part of March until the middle of the years under study (1890-1908) have been years of June, reaching its highest point of the year in June. For large and rapidly increasing gold production with conseApril, May, and June the movement of gold is outward, quent great increases in the gold circulation,6 the princithe average net exportations reaching their highest fig- pal part of which have taken place during the latter part ures for the year in May and June. The London market of the year, especially the last three months. appears to "ease u p " considerably at this time. SterIn most countries bank notes are expected to provide ling rates continue high through July, though declining the principal elastic element in the money supply. slightly, and then decline rapidly under the influence of Issued as they usually are against bank advances on cereal and cotton bills and of the crop-moving demand for commercial paper their circulation increases and decreases money, until they reach their lowest point of the year during the seasons in response to the needs of trade. For about the first week of October. The months of October, the United States the evidence points to the following September, and November (in the order named) are the seasonal tendencies: months of largest net gold importations. In the London The period for 1893-1908 being one of expanding bank money market the fall months are commonly spoken of note circulation, it would be expected that in the absence as the period of the "autumnal pressure" or the "au- of purely seasonal variations the curve of national bank tumnal drain." From the forepart of October until the note circulation would move upward from the beginning latter part of November sterling exchange tends to move of the year to the end of the year; and such a movement is upward, and from the latter date until the end of the found. For January the circulation is relatively low. year it is very uncertain. Gold importations are usually There is a slight tendency for the circulation to decline much smaller in December than in November. during the slack month of February when it reaches its The recent important development in the use of lowest figure for the year. At the time of the "spring finance bills by which funds are borrowed by American trade revival" in March and April there is an upward bankers in Europe, especially in London, on collateral movement in the national bank note circulation. The security, usually in the form of stocks and bonds, has a Cf. p. 152. had an important influence upon the sterling exchange b Cf. Andrew, National Monetary Commission: Financial Diagrams, market, tending to level down somewhat the seasonal diagram 16; and Kemmerer: Money and Prices, Book I, chap. 6. SEASONAL DEMAND FO average circulation for February (1890-1908) is $310,500,000, and for April $316,400,000, the average index numbers for the two months, respectively, being 19.8 and 42.4. The moderate level of circulation reached in April continues through August with a very slight upward tendency. From August to December there is a continuous and substantial increase, the average circulation increasing from $321,300,000 for August to $335,600,000 for December, and the average index number increasing from 46.4 to 87.1. The national bank note circulation does not appear to exhibit any considerable seasonal elasticity, i. e., rise and fall according to the seasonal variations in the demands of trade. I t is noteworthy, however, that the increase in the circulation which takes place normally from year to year, takes place largely in the fall and early winter when it is most needed. Apparently banks intending to increase their circulation postpone doing so until the crop-moving season approaches. There is no evidence of contraction when the crop-moving demands are over, the national bank note elasticity being (to use a rather inelegant expression) of the chewing-gum variety. The circulation of presumably inelastic money exhibits very similar seasonal fluctuations to that of national bank notes. I t is moderate in January, declines to one of the lowest points of the year in February, advances in March and April, declines from May to July (at the time of the late spring and summer inactivity in the money market), when the bank-note circulation shows a slight tendency upward, and then increases continually from August to the end of the year. Grouping together all the different kinds of money in circulation we may next observe the seasonal tendencies of the " total money in circulation." In addition to the particular forces affecting the circulation of each of the above kinds of money there is one important force which affects the circulation of all kinds and that is cash receipts and disbursements of the subtreasury offices. These receipts and disbursements alternately lock up and release large sums of money, while the government's deposits in national banks and withdrawals from national banks greatly affect the monetary circulation and the condition of the money market. I n chapter 6 figures are given for the period 1890-1908, showing the seasonal variations, first, in the average net balance of federal public moneys; second, in the average net balance in treasury offices, and third, in the average net balance in federal depositary banks. a Starting at a relatively low level in January the total circulation continues low through February and March. There is an upward movement in April and May and a slight tendency to decline in June and July. Federal Treasury balances tend to increase from May to July, likewise subtreasury holdings of cash, while federal deposits in national banks show a pronounced downward «Cf. Charts XLIV and XLV, and pp. 155-159. MONEY AND CAPITAL. 229 tendency. I t appears to have been the policy of the Treasury Department during a considerable part of the period studied to accumulate cash in subtreasury offices and to keep down deposits in national banks during these months of trade inactivity. From August to December the total monetary circulation shows its greatest increases, the average circulation rising from $2,053,800,000 for July to $2,132,800,000 for December, and the average index number rising from 25.3 to 88.8, each month of the period showing an increase over the month preceding. The net balance of public moneys as evidenced by average monthly figures declines from July to the end of the year, with the exception of a small advance in December, which is of little importance. The average net balance of public moneys in treasury offices, which reaches its maximum in July, falls continuously from that month to December, the greatest decline taking place in October and November. Beginning with August there is a continual advance to the end of the year in the average amounts of federal public moneys on deposit in national banks. For the period 1897-1908 it appears to have been the policy of the Treasury Department to increase deposits with national banks during the period of the crop-moving demand, including also the month of December. I t may be concluded therefore that both our "presumably elastic money" (gold and national bank notes) and our "presumably inelastic money" (ail other kinds of money) show little evidence of seasonal elasticity except for the fact that the year's normal increase for all of them tends to take place in the fall and early winter when it is needed most. None of them exhibit any considerable capacity to contract during the slack months of the year. Of the three, gold is the most elastic and national-bank notes the least—apparently showing even less capacity to contract than the " presumably inelastic money." DEPOSIT CURRENCY. The final topic to be considered under the " supply side 7 ' of the circulating media is "seasonal variations in the circulation of deposit currency." When it is remembered that recent investigations show that from 75 to 85 per cent of the country 7 s business transactions are effected by means of checks, the importance of this phase of the subject will be appreciated. The best criterion of the circulation of deposit currency is found in the figures for bank clearings, and the conclusions of chapter 7 are based principally upon a study of the weekly clearings of five representative cities and of the United States as a whole for the nineteen years 1890-1908. The results may be briefly summarized as follows: For New York City the circulation of deposit currency tends to decline in January and February, shows a sharp but temporary advance about March 1, in response to the heavy demands for March 1 settlements, particularly of farm mortgage obligations in the West. I t flue- 230 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. tuates considerably from March to the middle of May at a moderate level, declines from about the middle of May to the fore part of June, at which time the low level of the summer months is reached, and this level continues with minor fluctuations until early in September. During September there is a pronounced upward movement in response to the crop-moving demand, and from the fore part of October until the end of the year a the circulation of deposit currency fluctuates considerably at a high level. The evidence afforded by seasonal variations in the clearings for New York City, therefore, seems to justify the conclusion that deposit currency possesses for New York a very high degree of seasonal elasticity, expanding and contracting with the increase and decrease in the demands of trade. As was found in the case of seasonal variations in the ratios of bank reserves to deposits, so in the case of seasonal variations in clearings, the principal movements in Chicago are closely parallel with those in New York. The conclusion just reached with reference to the seasonal elasticity of deposit currency in New York applies also to Chicago. The clearings of New York combined with the much less important ones of Chicago represent such a large proportion of the clearings for the entire country that the curves for seasonal variations in the clearings of the United States as a whole correspond closely to those of New York City and Chicago. Deposit currency for the country as a whole may be said to exhibit a high degree of seasonal elasticity. For St. Louis the evidence is much more uncertain. A reference to Chart XLVIII will show that the monthly movements of clearings in that city are so pronounced and so regular in their occurrence as largely to obscure any more general seasonal swing. There is a very sharp rise in the average clearings at about the first week in nearly every month, followed shortly by an almost equally sharp decline. These monthly fluctuations, as shown by average figures, are very regular in their occurrence from year to year, the important ones taking place in nearly every one of the nineteen years. Passing over these short-time fluctuations, which are apparently largely due to first of the month settlements, we observe signs of a more general seasonal swing, i. e., decline in January and February, advance until about April, and then decline to the low "level" of the summer, advance from early September until October and then fluctuations at a high " leveP' until the end of the year—a seasonal swing which corresponds very roughly with that for the relative demand for moneyed capital in St. Louis shown on Chart IX (Curve " E . " ) . For San Francisco the situation is similar to that for St. Louis. The general seasonal swing in clearings seems to be lost to a considerable extent in the minor a The fifty-second week shows a very decided decline, probably because of the holidays it contains. monthly movements. For San Francisco, however, as for St. Louis, there is a very rough correspondence between the general movements of the curve showing the relative demand for moneyed capital (Chart XIII, Curve U E " ) and that showing average clearings. New Orleans shows a higher degree of seasonal elasticity in deposit currency than does St. Louis or San Francisco, but a lower degree than does New York or Chicago. Taking all the evidence together we conclude that deposit currency exhibits a high degree of seasonal elasticity, expanding and contracting in accordance with variations in trade demands, and that it is the only highly elastic element among our media of exchange. It is naturally much more responsive to minor and temporary forces (like first of the month settlements for example) than are exchange rates or bank reserves. SOME ECONOMIC INFLUENCES OF SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MONEY MARKET. The last general subject discussed is ''Some economic influences of seasonal variations in the relative demand for money and capital." Under this heading are considered, seasonal fluctuations in bond prices and in commercial failures, and the seasons in which financial panics tend to be most frequent. PRICE OF BONDS. On theoretical grounds it would be expected that a period of greatly increasing demand for money, like the crop-moving period, would tend to cause lower prices, in the absence of highly elastic currency, and that a period of greatly decreasing demand, like that of midsummer, would tend to cause higher prices. In the fall months a greater burden of work is imposed upon the money in circulation, and unless its rate of turnover increases the same amount will not do the work except at a lower level of prices. The extra burden of exchange work is carried in part by the expansive power of deposit currency, but even deposit currency must be supported by cash reserves, and the need of cash for crop-moving purposes, which results in the westward and southward movement of reserve money, limits the expansive power of deposit currency. For the purpose of testing the truth of such reasoning "and interest" a quotations were compiled and index numbers computed for the prices of twenty-seven railroad bonds for periods ranging from nine to nineteen years. These figures were then combined into a composite for all bonds for all years, each point in the composite representing three hundred and ninety-three or three hundred and ninety-four bond years.6 The evidence afforded by these figures shows the following seasonal tendencies:0 (1) There is a strong tend«"And interest" quotations are quotations in which accumulated interest has been deducted. &Cf. Chart LXXIX. cCf. in this connection letter of N. W. Harris & Co. quoted on pp. 217-218. SEASONAL DEMAND FO , MONEY AND CAPITAL. ency for bond prices to rise from the beginning of the year until about the first week in February, a period during which the money market has been found to be almost invariably declining and weak. From the first to the fifth week of the year the average price of all twenty-seven bonds rose from $98.99 to $99.79, the average index number of prices rising from 48.1 to 60.9. For twenty-six of the twenty-seven bonds the average price was higher for the fifth week than for the first, and for two hundred and sixty-eight of the three hundred and ninety-four bond years the price for the fifth week was the higher. I n addition to the influence of the weak money market at this period it should be noted that after January (and also July) disbursements of interest and dividends there are considerable amounts of funds seeking reinvestments (2) The second seasonal period extends from the fore part of February to the latter part of March. I t is a period during which the tendency of prices is downward, and, as we have seen (Charts I to V), a period of increasing demand for loanable capital. The average price of the twenty-seven bonds fell from $99.79 for the fifth week to $99.02 for the eleventh week, the average index number falling from 60.9 to 51.1. For twenty-five of the twenty-seven bonds the average price was lower for the eleventh week than for the fifth, and the price was lower for the eleventh week in two hundred and ninety of the three hundred and ninety-four bond years. (3) The third seasonal tendency is for bond prices to rise from the latter part of March until the fore part of May, and to be comparatively high from then until about the middle of June—a tendency in substantial harmony with the money-market movements of this season of the year. The average price of the twentyseven bonds rose from $99.02 for the eleventh week to $99.56 for the twenty-fourth week, the average index number rising from 51.1 to 56.7. For twenty-two of the twenty-seven bonds the average price was higher for the twenty-fourth week than for the eleventh, and of the three hundred and ninety-three bond years two hundred and nine showed higher prices for the twenty-fourth week than for the eleventh. (4) For the period from the middle of June until early September the evidence is contradictory, 6 but on the whole seems to point to a tendency for prices to be moderately high. (5) Beginning near the middle of September bond prices tend downward until about the middle of October. The average price of all twenty-seven bonds fell from $99.49 for the thirty-sixth week to $99.11 for the forty-first, and the average index number fell from 54.9 to 50. For twentyone of the twenty-seven bonds the average price was lower for the forty-first week than for the thirty-sixth, and the price was lower for the forty-first week in two hundred and thirty-six of the three hundred and ninetyfour bond years. (6) From about the middle of October, after the heaviest part of the crop-moving demand for flCf. letter from N. W. Harris & Co. quoted on pp. 217-218. &Cf. pp. 213 ff. 231 money is over, until early December, bond prices show an upward tendency. The average price of all bonds rose from $99.11 for the forty-first week to $99.75 for the forty-ninth week, the average index number rising from 50 to 56.3. Twenty-five of the twenty-seven bonds showed higher average prices for the forty-ninth week than for the forty-first, and of the three hundred and ninety-four bond years two hundred and forty-three showed a higher price for the forty-ninth week. In addition to the relaxation of the crop-moving demand for money at this time, another factor is the tendency of dealers to accumulate bonds in anticipation of an increasing demand rising from the dividend and interest disbursements of January 1. The latter part of December is a transitional period for bond prices, as it has been found to be for many other money-market phenomena, the tendency being downward from the forty-ninth to the fifty-first week, and then upward for the fifty-second week. The average price of all twenty-seven bonds fell from $99.75 for the forty-ninth week to $99.39 for the fifty-first week, and then rose to $99.58 for the fiftysecond. The corresponding average index numbers were, respectively, 56.3, 52.2, and 55. For twenty-three of the twenty-seven bonds the average price was lower for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth. The price was lower also for the fifty-first week than for the forty-ninth in two hundred and thirty-nine of the three hundred and ninety-four bond years. The tendency toward instability in December is shown by the fact t h a t December had both more maximum annual prices and more minimum annual prices than any other month of the year. I t may be concluded that the extent of the seasonal variations in bond prices is usually not great, but t h a t the percentage is large enough in the absolute to amount to many millions of dollars annually. The seasonal movements are for the most part not very pronounced in their regularity, but on the whole tend to conform to the normal seasonal swing of the money market. While the investigation does not include a study of the seasonal movement in the prices of stocks and of produce, there is a strong presumption that if the fluctuations in the prices of bonds tend to conform to the seasonal swing of the money market the same would be true (and perhaps even in a higher degree, although more disguised by other influences) of the prices of stocks and of produce. COMMERCIAL FAILURES. The figures for commercial failures for the years 18901908 published by Bradstreet's show a striking seasonal movement. First to attract attention is the very large number of failures during the fore part of January. The first three weeks of the year are clearly the highest three. After the fore part of January there is a rapid decline in the number of commercial failures until the fore part of April. With the exception of a minor upward movement during July, followed by a 232 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. decline throughout August, the curves of commercial failures tend to be low from early April until the fore part of September, when they begin a strong upward movement which does n o t culminate until after the opening of the new year. The figures of K. G. Dun & Co. give the same testimony as those of Bradstreet. W h a t is the explanation of this marked seasonal swing in the number of commercial failures? Obviously, one of the chief causes of the large number of failures in December and January consists in the custom among business concerns of taking account of stock and of closing accounts for the year's business in December. Business concerns, moreover, face a period of inactive business in early January. If they survive the December-January strain they are liable to be able to continue during the slack summer months. As the fall approaches and the money market becomes more tense the strain on the weaker business concerns becomes greater. The period of the spring trade revival is so brief and such a short time after the "cleaning-up" period of December and January that it normally occasions few failures. FINANCIAL PANICS. The final topic to consider is that of financial panics. Is there any tendency for financial panics to occur more frequently in the seasons of the year when the money market is normally stringent? I t has been found that the two periods of the year in which the money market is most likely to be strained are the periods of the spring trade revival (about March and April) and that of the crop-moving demand in the fall; and that the two periods of the easiest money market are the " readjustment period/' extending from about the middle of January to about the first of March, and the period of the summer depression, extending through the summer months. Of the eight panics which have occurred since 1873, four occurred in the fall or early winter (i. e., those of 1873, 1890, 1899, and 1907); three broke out in May (i. e., those of 1884, 1893, and 1901); and one (i. e., that of 1903) extended from March until well along in November. Out of a total of twenty-one minor panics or "panicky periods" occurring between 1876 and 1908, inclusive, nine occurred during the fall and early winter, eight during the spring, one began in May and extended into June, three occurred during the summer months, and one occurred in February. The evidence accordingly points to a tendency for the panics to occur during the seasons normally characterized by a stringent money market. LIST OF BOOKS AND ARTICLES CITED IN REPORT. [Exclusive of government reports published at regular intervals.] ANDREW, A. PIATT: T h e Influence of t h e Crops upon Business in America. Quarterly Journal of Economics, X X (1906), p p . 323353. The Treasury and the Banks under Secretary Shaw. Quarterly Journal of Economics, X X I (1907), p p . 519-568. ANDREW, A. PIATT, Compiler: National Monetary Commission Financial Diagrams. S. Doc. 509, 61st Cong. 2d sess. Statistics for t h e United States, 1867-1909. National Monetary Commission's Report. S. Doc. 570, 61st Cong. 2d sess. BRADSTREET'S: A journal of Trade, Finance, and Public Economy. [Weekly.] New York: Bradstreet Company. CLARE, GEORGE: T h e A B C of t h e Foreign Exchanges. London: Macmillan & Co., 1901. A Money Market Primer. Second edition. London: Effingham Wilson, 1902. COMMERCIAL AND FINANCIAL CHRONICLE. [Weekly.] New York: W. B . Dana Company. CONANT, CHARLES A.: Securities as a Means of Payment. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, X J V (1899), p p . 181-203. D E W E Y , DAVIS R.: Financial History of t h e United States. Third edition. New York: Longmans, Green & Co., 1907. DUNBAR, CHARLES F . : T h e Theory and History of Banking. Second edition. New York: G. P . P u t n a m ' s Sons, 1904. DUN'S REVIEW. [Weekly.] New York: R . G. D u n & Co. ECONOMIST ( T H E ) . [Weekly.] London: T h e Economist Office. FINANCIAL R E V I E W ( T H E ) . [Annual.] New York: W. B . Dana Company. F I S H E R , IRVING: A Practical Method of Estimating the Circulation of Money. Journal of t h e Royal Statistical Association (1909). JEVONS, W. STANLEY: Investigations in Currency and Finance. London: Macmillan & Co., 1884. JOHNSON, JOSEPH F R E N C H : Money and Currency. Boston: Ginn & Co., 1906. KEMMERER, E . W.: Money and Credit Instruments in their Relation to General Prices. Second edition. New York: Henry Holt & Co., 1909. KINLEY, DAVID: T h e Use of Credit Instruments in Payments in t h e United States. National Monetary Commission's Report. S. Doc. 399, 61st Cong. 2d sess. Credit Instruments in Business Transactions. Journal of Political Economy, V (1897), p p . 157-174. Money. New York: T h e Macmillan Company, 1904. KOCH, R., Editor: German Imperial Banking Laws. National Monetary Commission's Report. S. Doc. 574, 61st Cong. 2d sess. MARGRAFF, ANTHONY W.: International Exchange. Second edition. Chicago: International Exchange, National Life Building, 1904. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION: Renewal of Reichsbank Charter. S. Doc. 507, 61st Cong. 2d sess. PALGRAVE, R . H . INGLIS: Bank R a t e and t h e Money Market. London: John Murray, 1903. PRATT, SERENO S.: T h e Work of Wall Street. New York: D . Appleton & Co., 1909. SCOTT, WILLIAM A.: Rates on the New York Money Market 1896-1906. Journal of Political Economy, X V I (1908), p p . 273-298. # APPENDICES. 233 APPENDIX A . — I N T E R E S T RATES IN N E W YORK CITY, 1890-1908. TABLE 1.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced by interest rates,a call loans, New York Stock Exchange, 1890-1908. 1890 M o n t h a n d week.6 Jan.- Feb. Mar.— 9 . . 10.. 11.. 12.. Apr.—13.. 14.. 15.. 16.. 17.. May— 18.. 19. 20. 21. J u n e --22. 23. 24. 25. J u l y - - 26. Aug.- Sept.- Oct.- Interest rates. Per ct. 20 6 5 4 31 4 4 4 5 41 41 4 4 41 41 4 4 41 5 5 5 41 5 41 4* 5 5 5 41 41 4 51 10 25 6 6 10 7 4 4 41 41 6 Nov.- Dec. — Index numbers, c 1891 Interest rates. Index numbers.c Per ct. 76.7 11.6 7.0 2.3 0.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 7.0 4.7 4.7 2.3 2.3 4.7 4.7 2.3 2.3 4.7 7.0 7.0 7.0 4.7 7.0 4.7 4.7 7.0 7.0 7.0 4.7 4.7 2.3 9.3 30.2 100.0 11.6 11.6 30.2 16.3 2.3 2.3 4.7 4.7 11.6 11.6 11.6 20.9 20.9 11.6 11.6 11.6 2.3 2.3 41 4 3 3 3 3 21 3 3 21 3 8 3 3 66.6 55.5 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 22.2 33.3 33.3 22.2 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 44.4 44.4 44.4 55.5 66.6 66.6 66.6 55.5 44.4 33.3 22.2 33.3 22.2 11.1 11.1 0.0 5.6 11.1 16.7 22.2 44.4 55.5 33.3 100.0 100.0 88.8 66.6 44.4 44.4 88.8 66.6 55.5 44.4 33.3 33.3 27.8 33.3 22.2 1893 1893 Interest rates. Per ct. 3 21 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 11 11 11 11 H li li 11 if 21 2 11 11 11 11 lf 2 31 4 41 31 4-i 5 6 6 51 6 52 5 41 41 4f Index numbers, c 20.0 14.3 8.6 8.6 8.6 I 8. 68.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 0*0 0.0 0.0 2.9 5.7 14.3 8.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 5.7 8.6 25.7 31.4 37.1 25.7 37.1 42.8 54.2 54.2 48.5 54.2 51.3 42.8 37.1 37.1 39.9 65.6 100.0 48.5 Interest rates. Per ct. 5 41 31 3 2 21 31 4 6 15 9 4 5 41 5 5 6 4 3 21 21 41 7 9 15 8 8 5 10 9 5 4 5 41 4 4 3 4 3 21 2 2 2 2 11 11 li li l1 1* Index numbers, c Inter- I n d e x I n t e r numest est rates. bers, c rates. Per ct. 28.6 25.0 17.9 14.3 7.1 10.7 17.9 21.4 35.7 100.0 57.1 21.4 42.8 28.6 25.0 28.6 28.6 35.7 21.4 14.3 10.7 10.7 25.0 42.8 57.1 100.0 50.0 50.0 28.6 64.3 57.1 28.6 21.4 28.6 25.0 21.4 21.4 14.3 21.4 14.3 10.7 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.9 H l l l l l l l l l li li li li li li li li l li li ii l l l l l l l l l l l l l I l l l l l l l l l l l ii ii 11 11 if 1897 1895 1894 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 80.0 80.0 100.0 Index numbers, c Per ct. \ 2.8 li 2.8 li 1.4 li 1.4 li 2 1 11.1 5.6 8.3 2.8 5.6 11.1 13.9 13.9 16.7 16.7 16.7 11.1 8.3 5.6 4.2 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 !i ! 2.8 2 11.1 4.2 ii 2.8 li 2.8 li 1.4 li 1.4 li 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 11 5.6 2 11.1 8.3 If 2 11.1 2i 13.9 2i 13.9 2i 12.5 2i 13.9 2i 12.5 2 11.1 8.3 If 2 11.1 2i 13.9 2 11.1 4 33.3 10 100.0 Interest rates. Index numbers, c Per ct. 5 41 11 1| li 11 2 2i 2i 21 21 21 2 If 11 If li li li li li li 61 25 15 4 31 21 2i If If 2 2 14.0 11.8 9.7 9.7 11.8 9.7 7.5 8.6 7.5 6.5 9.7 6.5 7.5 6.5 5.4 4.3 3.8 4.3 5.4 2.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 2.7. 0.0 2.2 3.2 0.0 6.5 14.0 11.8 18.3 20.4 16.1 18.3 12.9 11.8 20.4 20.4 20.4 100.0 57.0 9.7 7.5 3.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 1898 Inter- I n d e x numest rates. bers.c Interest rates. Per ct. 2 Per ct. 33.3 23.8 23.8 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 14.3 14.3 9.5 14.3 9.5 9.5 9.5 4.8 4.8 0.0 0.0 4.8 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 9.5 4.8 9.5 42.9 81.0 71.4 71.4 61.9 42.9 33.3 33.3 23.8 23.8 23.8 28.6 23.8 90.5 100.0 100.0 31 2f 2 If If ii if 2f 2i 2 2i 2i 2| 21 31 3 21 3 2i If If If li li li li li li li li li If If 2 21 31 3f 4i 3f 2f 21 2 If If 2 2i 2i 2i 2i 2| 2i 2f 1899 Index numbers, c 75.0 50.0 25.0 16.7 12.5 4.2 4.2 50.0 33.3 25.0 29.2 29.2 37.5 54.2 75.0 58.3 41.7 58.3 33.3 16.7 4.2 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 12.5 25.0 33.3 75.0 79.2 100.0 83.3 50.0 41.7 25.0 16.7 16.7 25.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 37.5 33.3 50.0 Interest rates. Per ct. 3i 2f 21 21 2§ 21 21 21 2f 2f 4 5 6 7 4f 4f 4 41 4 31 3 2i 2| 2| 21 31 5 5 4 3i 4 31 25 2i 3i 5 6 61 8 12 7 5i 6 10 9 7 6 6 7 7 25 5* Index numbers, c 3.9 2.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.2 2.2 7.7 12.1 16.5 20.9 11.0 11.0 7.7 9.9 7.7 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 5.5 12.1 12.1 7.7 7.2 7.7 5.5 2.8 2.8 3.9 12.1 16.5 18.7 25.3 42.9 20.9 13.2 16.5 34.1 29.7 20.9 16.5 16.5 20.9 20.9 100.0 14.3 o T h e s e rates represent t h e average rates for each week as given b y t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. b T h e schedule of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, s u c h as 1893, in w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is given as a n a i d t o enable one t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e in t h e y e a r in w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (b). c I n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s t h e m a x i m u m average weekly r a t e each year is t a k e n as 100, t h e m i n i m u m average weekly r a t e each year is t a k e n as 0, a n d t h e o t h e r rates are p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e lowest average weekly r a t e in 1890, 31 per cent (fifth w e e k ) , is represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0; t h e highest average weekly r a t e , 25 p e r cent ( t h i r t y - f o u r t h w e e k ) , is represented b y 100, a n d t h e first week whose r a t e is 20 per c e n t , is represented b y 76.7, i. e., /2-P 3 1 | X IQO. Cf. p p . 13-15. 125—3^ 235 236 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. TABLE 1.—Seasonal variations in the relative Interest rates. Index numbers, c Interest rates. Per ct. Jan.— for 1901 1900 Month a n d week.b demand moneyed capital as evidenced 1890-1908—Continued. 1902 Index numbers, c Per ct. Interest rates. 1904 1903 Index numbers, c Per ct. Interest rates. Index numbers, c Per ct. rates,a by interest Interest rates. 1905 Index numbers, c Interest rates. call j Index numbers, c Per ct. Per ct. loans, New 1906 York Stock 1907 Inter- Index est i n u m r a t e s . bers, c Interest rates. Per ct. Per ct. Exchange^ 1908<* Index numbers, c Interest rates. Index numbers, c Per ct. 1 6 61.3 5 23.9 5 20.0 51 56.0 31 91.7 2f 2.6 25 100.0 15 27.4 6 2 5 48.4 31 12.4 41 16.4 40.0 21 1.3 6 17.0 6 8.8 4 60.0 3f 32.3 3 36.0 21 11 50.0 3 41 4 37.5 2 0.7 10.4 4 4.7 2 20.0 3i | 25.8 2f 1 19.4 6 2i 7 100.0 8.6 3 5.5 2 1.0 2| 0.9 32.0 If 33.3 11 0.3 8.2 21 2.1 12 15. a 11 0.0 21 1.8 3f 3 41 4 20.0 11 37.5 21 1.3 31 7.1 3 2.6 H 17.5 12.9 2 1.0 2| 0.9 2} 16.0 11 37.5 2 0.7 4 8.2 2f 2.1 11 17.5 21 12.9 2 1.0 2| 0.9 21 16.0 If 29.2 21 1.3 4f 11.5 4f 6.2 If 15.0 8 Mar.— 9 2* 12.9 2 1.0 21 0.0 3 20.0 11 37.5 21 2.0 4f 11.5 5 6.7 If 15.fr 2* 12.9 2 1.0 2* 3.6 41 44.0 If 33.3 2f 2.6 5 12.6 5 6.7 11 17.5 10 11 2* 5 19.4 21 2.9 3! 10.9 64.0 11 37.5 21 2.0 51 .13.7 51 7.8 11 17.5 48.4 21 2.9 41 16.4 5f 6 68.0 11 37.5 31 4.6 41 10.4 12. .v. 41 41.9 2| 3.8 i 4f 18.2 5f 64.0 If 29.2 31 4.6 4f 11.5 j 3 4 Feb.— 5 . . . 10 17.1 11 17.5 4 4.7 2 20.fr 29.0 21 4.8 3i 10.9 8 100.0 If 29.2 3f 5.2 5 12.6 6 8.8 If 12.5 3f 32.3 3 8.6 51 23.6 6 68.0 If 29.2 31 4.6 15 56.3 3 2.6 If I5.fr 31 3 25.8 41 20.0 5 20.0 5 52.0 11 25.0 31 3.9 15 56.3 2 0.5 11 10.fr 22.6 5 23.9 41 14.5 31 24.0 U 16.7 31 3.9 4 8.2 21 1.0 If I5.fr 21 1 12.9 2 9.7 4 16.2 7 34.5 21 12.0 11 12.5 3 3.3 4 8.2 21 1.0 11 17.5 5 23.9 10 56.3 21 12.0 16.7 21 2.9 6 21 1.0 If 15.fr 2i 2 11.3 15 100.0 51 23.6 21 j 12.0 H nI 37.5 21 2.0 4 8.2 2f 2.1 If 15.fr 9.7 5 23.9 3* 10.9 j 2i i 12.0 2 9.7 41 20.0 3 5.5 June—22 11 8.1 3 8.6 3 23 11 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21 1 24 * 8.1 3 n 8.1 31 2 41.7 21 1.3 31 4.9 21 1.6 11 10.fr 8.0 if 20.8 21 1.3 31 6.0 21 1.0 If 5.5 21 3 20.0 11 16.7 21 1.3 4 8.2 If 0.0 11 12.5 10.fr 12.5 21 2.0 31 4.9 2 0.5 If 12.5 21 2.0 3 3.8 21 1.6 11 12.5 10.fr 8.6 21 4.5 2| 16.0 11 10.5 2| 3.6 21 8.0 11 25 i§ 4.8 4 ! 16.2 2\\ 3.6 21 8.0 11 JUly_2G IS 1.6 7 39.1 5 20.0 5 52.0 11 27 if 6.5 8 46.7 4 12.7 3 20.0 11 if 4.8 5 23.9 3 5.5 3 20.0 it 1.6 31 12.4 2} 3.6 2 4.0 11 1 it 1.6 21 4.8 21 4.5 2 4.0 Aug.—31 it 1.6 21 4.8 2i 4.5 10.0 32 H 0.0 21 2.9 41 16.4 33 l| 1.6 21 2.9 4 12.7 2S 2 2 28 j 29 30 i 4.0 4.0 12.5 j 21 1.3 31 4.9 3 2.6 11 10.fr 12.5 2f 2.6 31 6.0 5 6.7 H 10.fr 12.5 2f 2.6 5 12.6 8 12.9 H 5.0 12.-5 21 2.0 3 3.8 6 8.8 11 5.0 8.3 2 0.7 21 1.6 31 3.1 11 5.0 0.3 21 0.0 21 1.6 11 1.3 21 0.5 3 2.6 l 2.5 0.0 0.0 31 4.9 4 4.7 0.7 31 6.0 3 2.6 11 l 2.5 O.fr 0.7 5 12.6 21 1.0 1.3 6 17.0 3 2.6 11 l 2.5 O.fr 2.6 20 11 15.0 5.0 1 1 4.2 i 0,0 If 2 8.3 2 n 4.2 6.3 34 i| 1.6 H 5.7 3f 10.9 U 0.0 5.7 6 27.3 36 ii 0.0 | 3.2 2| 3« if 2 0.0 Sept.—35 13.3 8 41.8 21 8.0 I 8.3 6 31.5 10 56.3 21 8.0 16.7 4 16.2 16 100.0 2| 10.0 u 3| 14.3 14 85.5 2f 16.0 il 2 21 2 12.0 2 4.0 2 37 1 38 ii 6.5 39 i« 8.9 1 Oct.— 40 2| 31 31 41 42 43 17.0 J 14.5 3i 14.3 11 63.6 25.8 3| 14.3 9 49.1 25.8 31 10.5 51 23.6 41.9 31 10.5 5 20.0 41.9 3f 14.3 5 20.0 100.0 3f 14.3 51 23.6 35.5 41 20.0 41 16.4 I 6.3 4.0 37.5 41.7 41.7 41.7 37.5 11 21 21 2f 21 3f 5 78.1 3 2.6 2.9 61 19.1 5 6.7 5.2 6 16.9 4 4.7 8.5 5 12.6 4 4.7 11 if 11 5.0 10. fr 7 13.7 51 14.8 5 6.7 H 5.fr 5f 10.4 3| 7.1 5 6.7 11 10.fr 8.0 11 4f 7.8 5 12.6 5 6.7 H 10.fr 36.0 21 5a o 3| 5.2 5 12.6 40 79.2 11 10.fr 41 5 5 40.0 21 50.0 5 8.5 61 19.1 50 100.0 if 15.fr 52.0 21 50.0 8 16.3 8 25.7 22 41.9 if 15.fr 52.0 21 58.3 15 37.2 8 25.7 10 17.1 if 15.fr 76.0 31 91.7 51 9.8 8 25.7 10 17.1 if 15.fr 84.0 31 91.7 5 8.5 6 17.0 7 10.9 21 25.fr 21 4 46 41 41 9 4 47 3i 32.3 41 20.0 41 16.4 Dec.—48 31 29.0 4 16.2 61 29.0 61 7 49 41 41.9 41 20.0 61 30.9 51 60.0 32 100.0 10 21.5 18 ! 69.4 6 8.8 21 25.fr 50 51 54.8 8 46.7 6 27.3 51 56.0 21 70.8 8 16.3 12 ! 43.2 18 33.6 31 50.fr 51 51 51.6 6 31.5 81 45.4 3| 32.0 21 70.8 8 16.3 20 78.1 12 21.2 31 45.0 52 51 51.6 61 35.3 t 67.2 6 68.0 3 75.0 40 100.0 1 « 17.0 20 37.8 31 45.fr Nov.—44 45 i U i i a &, c, For foot no t e explail a t i o n s see notes a t b o t t o m o f f i r s t p a g e of t h e T a b l e , d Average figures for t h e p eriod \i590-1908 are given i n T a b l e l o f t h e T e x t ( p . 15). 1 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. T A B L E 2 . — S e a s o n a l variations in the relative 1891 Mopth a n d week.& Interest rates. Index numbers.c 6i 5* 51 5 16.3 10.2 10.2 41 41 5 5 51 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 6.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 5| 51 51 51 51 5 5 5 2.0 6.1 6.1 5.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 6.1 6.1 41 5 0.0 2.0 4| 5 0.0 2.0 4.1 4| 51 51 5 51 5 5 5 51 5f 5| 5| 5§ 5| 6 5f 5! 51 5J 6 6 6 11 6* 6* 71 7| 7 Index numbers. Per ct. Per ct. 51 Interest rates. 2.0 6.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 10.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 18.4 14.3 14.3 16.3 16.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 100.0 26.5 26.5 42.8 42.8 42.8 34.7 61 6 51 5 5 5 5 5 51 51 5 51 51 51 5 5 41 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 5| 51 51 51 52 52 51 5f 51 52 52 5f 51 6 5| 52 51 5 51 5 5 5 5 4| 42 42 4f 100.0 71.4 28.6 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 42.8 28.6 14.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 14.3 14.3 7.1 28.6 28.6 42.8 42.8 42.8 42.8 42.8 42.8 57.1 42.8 42.8 42.8 57.1 57.1 57.1 50.0 64.3 57.1 57.1 50.0 64.3 71.4 64.3 57.1 42.8 14.3 28.6 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 demand for 1893 1892 Interest rates. Per ct. 41 41 4 3f 31 31 32 4 4 4 4 4 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 3| 3 2J 21 21 31 3 Index numbers. (d) Interest rates. Index numbers.^ 42.9 28.6 23.8 23.8 33.3 42.9 42.9 42.9 42.9 42.9 38.1 23.8 23.8 23.8 19.1 19.1 9.5 9.5 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 4.8 5* 51 41 41 4| 5 5 51 61 61 61 7 71 5| 5f 51 52 52 6f 71 71 61 61 6f 101 HI HI HI 9 81 81 81 81 131 11 91 8 7| 72 62 6 5f 51 51 41 4 4 32 32 31 32 3f evidenced by interest 1890-1908. 1894 Interest rates. Index numbers." Per ct. Per ct. 61.9 61.9 3| 19.1 9.5 31 3f 33.3 3» 28.6 3f 28.6 3| 28.6 41 47.6 41 52.4 4| 57.2 42 71.4 5 81.0 42 71.4 41 61.9 4§ 66.7 51 90.5 51 90.5 51 100.0 51 90.5 51 100.0 5 81.0 4| 76.2 5 81.0 5 81.0 5 81.0 00 moneyed capital as commercial paper, 21.3 18.8 13.8 10.0 8.8 15.0 15.0 20.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 32.5 37.5 37.5 27.5 27.5 32.5 70.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 55.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0 75.0 60.0 45.0 43.8 42.5 32.5 25.0 18.8 20.0 17.5 13.8 5.0 5.0 2.5 2.5 0.0 2.5 1.3 100.0 87.5 31 87.5 31 62.5 31 3 | 100.0 62.5 31 62.5 31 62.5 31 62.5 31 37.5 3 37.5 3 37.5 3 37.5 3 37.5 3 37.5 3 75.0 31 37.5 3 25.0 21 25.0 2| 25.0 21 , 37.5 *3 37.5 3 25.0 21 25.0 21 25.0 2| 37.5 3 37.5 3 37.5 3 37.5 3 37.5 3 37.5 3 . 37.5 3 50.0 31 50.0 31 50.0 31 62.5 31 62.5 31 75.0 31 62.5 31 37.5 3 25.0 21 0.0 2| 0.0 2§ 0.0 2f 0.0 2| 25.0 21 25.0 2| 25.0 21 25.0 21 25.0 2| 25.0 21 25.0 21 3| rates,® on sixty 237 to ninety day, 1895 Interest rates. Index numbers, c Per ct. 21 25 2| 21 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 4 40.7 31 25.9 25.9 33.3 33.3 33.3 37.0 40.7 40.7 31 32 32 32 31 4 4 41 4 4 3| 3 48.1 40.7 40.7 29.6 2§ 2| 11.1 7.4 3.8 0.0 0.0 2f 2| 2| 2| 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22 3.8 11.1 11.1 21 2f 3 3 3 3 31 31 32 3| 32 32 4 4| 4f 41 41 41 41 41 41 31 31 41 41 41 6 prime 1899 11.1 11.1 22.2 22.2 Interest rates. Per ct. 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 51 41 51 51 51 5f 52 51 5 4f 4f 4f 4| 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 51 5 52 52 33.3 29.6 33.3 33.3 40.7 59.2 62.9 66.6 66.6 66.6 55.5 55.5 48.1 37.0 37.0 48.1 48.1 55.5 100.0 7 62 (d) (d) id) id) Index numbers, c 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 41.8 29.2 23.0 29.2 29.2 33.4 37.6 37.6 29.2 25.1 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 20.9 29.2 25.1 37.6 37.6 75.2 75.2 100.0 91.9 91.9 91.9 58.5 54.3 37.6 37.6 23.0 20.9 4.2 0.0 4.2 4.2 6.3 Interest rates. Per ct. 31 3.1 31 3 3 3 3 3 3 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 3f 3f 31 31 31 3 3 31 3| 3| 31 31 31 31 35 3| 3| 31 4 4f 4| 4| 4| 41 35 31 31 31 3 3 31 31 32 32 Index numbers, c 54.5 18.2 18.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.2 36.4 36.4 36.4 45.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 27.3 45.4 45.4 36.4 18.2 18.2 Interest rates. Per ct. 32 31 3 3 3 3 3 31 4 4| 42 4| 5 51 51 6 6 52 51 0.0 0.0 9.1 27.3 27.3 36.4 36.4 36.4 45.4 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 72.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 81.8 63.6 54.5 36.4 18.2 0.0 0.0 9.1 36.4 54.5 54.5 a These r a t e s r e p r e s e n t t h e average rates for each week as given b y t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. & See n o t e (&), p . 13. c F o r m e t h o d of c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s , see n o t e ( c ) , p . 235, a n d p p . 13-15. d N o q u o t a t i o n s a v a i l a b l e for t h e s e w e e k s . two-name Index numbers, c 25.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 33.3 58.3 58.3 58.3 66.7 83.3 83.3 100.0 100.0 91.7 75.0 50.0 25.0 12.5 8.3 4.2 8.3 8.3 16.7 25.0 25.0 20.8 20.8 16.7 16.7 25.0 33.3 33.3 41.7 41.7 33.3 16.7 12.5 12.5 12.5 8.3 0.0 16.7 12.5 12.5 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 238 T A B L E 2.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced by interest rates,a on sixty to ninety commercial paper, 1890-1908—Continued. 1900 Month and week. & Jan.- Feb.- Mar.- • 9 . . 10.. 11.. 12.. Apr.—13.. 14.. 15. 16.. 17.. May—18.. 19.. 20.. 21.. June—22.. 23.. 24.. 25.. July—26.. 27.. 28.. 29.. 30.. Aug.—31.. 32. 33. 34. Sept.—35. 36.. 37.. 38.. 39.. Oct.—40.. 41.. 42.. 43.. Nov.—44., 45.. 46.. 47.. Dec—48.. 49.. 50.. 51.. 52. Interest rates. Index Internumest bers, c rates. 1902 1903 Index Inter- Index Internumnumest est bers, c rates. bers, c rates. Per ct. Perct. Per ct. 4| 4i 100.0 6 92.8 41 41 57.1 51 68.4 41 4 42.8 4| 52.6 4 41 26.3 31 28.6 4 41 26.3 31 0.0 4 41 26.3 31 14.3 4 41 21.1 31 28.6 4 41 36.8 31 28.6 41 47.4 4 31 28.6 41 52.6 28.6 41 5 57.9 28.6 4f 28.6 41 41 52.6 47.4 28.6 4i 4f 28.6 41 41 36.8 42.8 41 26.3 4i 42.8 4 41 26.3 15.8 50.0 4f 4 5.3 42.8 3f 51 5.3 42.8 3f 4| 0.0 42.8 3f 41 0.0 42.8 4| 5.3 35.7 41 0.0 42.8 41 0.0 28.6 41 0.0 42.8 41 10.5 42.8 41 10.5 42.8 4f 10.5 42.8 4| 15.8 71.4 4f 26.3 71.4 4| 26.3 71.4 4i 26.3 71.4 43 26.3 71.4 4| 15.8 71.4 5 26.3 71.4 51 15.8 100.0 51 15.8 100.0 51 36.8 100.0 6 52.6 85.7 6 57.9 85.7 6 6 63.2 78.5 57.9 78.5 68.4 78.5 52.6 78.5 42.1 85.7 26.3 78.5 36.8 85.7 26.3 85.7 36.8 85.7 63.2 100.0 52.6 100.0 52.6 100.0 o, 6, c} See corresponding footnotes on p . 237. 1901 37.5 37.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 37.5 25.0 25.0 37.5 37.5 0.0 18.8 31.3 31.3 25.0 18.8 12.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 37.5 31.3 31.3 31.3 31.3 43.8 43.8 50.0 62.5 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 87.5 81.3 87.5 100.0 81.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 d Period of panic of 1907. Per ct. 51 5J 51 43 4* 4f 4* 51 51 1904 Index Internumest bers, c rates. 54.6 36.4 36.4 18.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 36.4 36.4 90.9 72.7 63.6 63.6 27.3 45,5 27.3 18.2 9.1 9.1 0.0 9.1 27.3 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 72.7 81.8 81.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 72.7 81.8 90.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 72.7 72.7 1905 Index Internumest bers, c rates. Per ct. 51 100. 41 76. 43 84. 41 76. 4f 76. 43 84. 4f 69. 43 84. 43 84. 41 76. 41 76. 41 69. 41 53. 41 46. 41 46. 4 30. 31 15. 33 23. 33 23. 33 23. 4 30. 4 30. 31 15. 0. 31 0. 31 0. 31 0. 31 0. 31 0. 31 7. 3f 30. 4 30. 4 33 23. 7. 3| 33 23. 33 41 41 41 41 4f 41 41 4 43 41 41 41 4f 41 41 41 Per ct. 41 41 31 31 31 33 33 31 33 33 33 4 1906 Index Internumest bers, c rates. 22.2 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 5.6 0.0 5.6 5.6 5.6 11.1 11.1 5.6 16.7 11.1 5.6 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 22.2 27.8 38.9 44.4 44.4 44.4 50.0 55.5 55.5 50.0 55.5 66.7 100.0 88.8 83.3 Per ct. 51 51 5 5 41 41 5 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 5 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 5f 51 51 51 51 day, two-name 1907 Index Internumest bers, c rates. 25.0 25.0 12.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 12.5 18.8 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 31.3 31.3 50.0 18.8 37.5 50.0 37.5 18.8 12.5 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 43.8 43.8 43.8 50.0 50.0 62.5 87.5 87.5 75.0 100.0 100.0 87.5 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 Per ct. 61 61 61 6 6 6 6 53 53 61 61 61 61 61 6 53 51 51 51 51 51 51 5 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 6 6 61 61 61 61 prime 1908* Index numbers, c 41.7 41.7 41.7 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 29.2 29.2 37.5 37.5 41.7 41.7 41.7 33.3 29.2 25.0 25.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 8.3 0.0 25.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 25.0 25.0 25.0 33.3 33.3 41.7 41.7 50.0 58.3 58.3 58.3 66.7 66.7 66.7 4 4 7 4 7 4 7 4 (*) 41 (d) 4 41 (*) 41 4 31 100.0 33 (d) 31 (d) 33 (*) 33 (*) 33 < Average figures for the period 1890-1908 are given in Table I I of the Text (p. 18). SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 239 TABLE 3.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced by interest rates^four months' time paper, 1890-1908. 1890 Month and week.& Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.- 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 16 17 M a y - 18 19 20 21 June—22 23 24 25 July— 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.-31 32 33 34 Sept.—35. 36. 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec—48 49 50 51 52 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 Inter- Index Inter- Index Inter- Index Inter- Index Inter- Index Inter- Index Inter- Index Inter- Index Inter- Index Inter- Index numnumest est numnumnumnumest numest est numest numest est est numest rates. bers, c rates. bers, c rates. bers, c rates. bers, c rates. bers, c rates. bers, c rates. bers, c rates. bers, c rates, bers. c rates. bers, c Per ct. 6 6 54 4 44 4! 5 54 54 51 51 54 54 5 4§ 44 41 44 4* 5 54 5 5 5 54 54 54 5 44 4! 5 6 6 6 6 Per ct. 53.3 53.3 40.0 0.0 13.3 20.0 26.7 40.0 40.0 46.7 46.7 40.0 40.0 26.7 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 26.7 40.0 26.7 26.7 26.7 40.0 40.0 40.0 26.7 13.3 20.0 26.7 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.3 (d) 71 100.0 (d) 71 7f 100.0 100.0 53.3 53.3 54 54 44 5 5 5 44 5 5 5 44 5 44 44 41 4f 54 6 6 H 100.0 100.0 66.7 66.7 0.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 0.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 0.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 16.7 16.7 66.7 100.0 100.0 83.3 ( d) 66.7 66.7 0.0 44 0.0 44 16.7 4f 33.3 5 100.0 6 100.0 6 100.0 6 100.0 6 83.3 5| 100.0 6 100.0 6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 16.7 100.0 50.0 50.0 0.0 16.7 66.7 16.7 16.7 54 54 Per ct. 4 4 34 3f 3i 4 31 34 3f 4 4 34 34 34 3 3 3 3 2f 2| 3 24 24 3 34 3 34 34 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 54 5 42.9 42.9 28.6 35.7 21.4 42.9 35.7 28.6 35.7 42.9 42.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 7.1 7.1 14.3 0.0 0.0 14.3 28.6 14.3 28.6 28.6 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 42.9 42.9 71.4 85.7 71.4 57.1 71.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 71.4 71.4 85.7 71.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 Per ct. 6 5 44 4 34 4i 44 5 6 6 6 6 63.6 45.4 36.4 27.3 18.2 31.8 36.4 45.4 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 45.4 45.4 63.6 63.6 (d) (*) (d) (d) . 8 100.0 (d) (d) (d) <*) 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 63.6 54.5 54.5 45.4 31.8 31.8 9.1 4.5 4.5 0.0 9.1 9.1 0.0 Per ct. Per ct. Per ct. Per ct. Per ct. Per ct. 54.5 3 28.6 25.0 34 28.6 3 3 100.0 3 54.5 25.0 75.0 3 34 28.6 2| 24 I 0.0 3 54.5 14.3 75.0 2| 24 j 0.0 3 24 12.5 3 54.5 3 24 14.3 0.0 25.0 50.0 3 24 3 54.5 3 3 14.3 6 28.6 100.0 31 43.8 3 3 54.5 14.3 6 0.0 50.0 3f 43.8 3 31 24 24 3 ' 28.6 41 56.3 14.3 3 100.0 34 51 40.9 • 3 3 31.8 4i 56.3 34 4 42.9 28.6 100.0 4| 3 18.2 3| 2£ 4i 56.3 4 42.9 0.0 50.0 24 4 4 3 , 28.6 41 56.3 41 64.3 3 100.0 44 27.3 4 41 56.3 3 4f 24 64.3 28.6 50.0 44 27.3 4i 56.3 3 4f 3 64.3 28.6 100.0 4| 44 27.3 41 56.3 5 3 71.4 28.6 50.0 41 44 27.3 24 44 62.5 85.7 3 28.6 50.0 41 54 24 44 27.3 4i 56.3 3 92.9 28.6 50.0 5f 41 24 44 27.3 31 43.8 18.2 3 100.0 28.6 50.0 6 41 24 4 3! 43.8 0.0 100.0 0.0 6 50.0 24 34 24 3 3 5 0.0 71.4 0.0 25.0 50.0 34 24 24 3 3 4f 4 9.1 64.3 0.0 25.0 50.0 24 34 24 24 12.5 9.1 28.6 0.0 0.0 3f 2 24 34 34 24 12.5 3 14.3 0.0 0.0 3 2 3 24 1 0.0 2 3 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2 3 24 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 0.0 2 3 24 24 2 9.1 3 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2 24 34 2 3 14.3 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 2 24 34 2 31 14.3 0.0 0.0 9.1 50.0 3 24 24 34 2 34 14.3 0.0 0.0 9.1 50.0 3 24 24 34 41 14.3 18.2 0.0 0.0 3 4 2 24 24 12.5 3! 14.3 0.0 25.0 50.0 3 3 24 44 27.3 24 41 14.3 0.0 25.0 36.4 2 3 0.0 3 24 5 4f 14.3 54.5 0.0 3 6 24 24 12.5 24 50.0 . 4f 14.3 54.5 28.6 3 3 6 21 25.0 24 12.5 41 14.3 72.7 7 3 31 42.9 3 100.0 24 12.5 41 28.6 3 28.6 8 90.9 3 100.0 34 24 12.5 4f 35.7 7 72.7 3f 3 100.0 31 42.9 24 12.5 4f 7 4 42.9 72.7 31 42.9 3 100.0 24 12.5 51 (d) 71.4 41 50.0 3 100.0 3f 24 12.5 51 42.9 4 63.6 3 100.0 3! 71.4 64 34 37.5 6 4 54.5 85.7 2 0.0 31 35.7 6 34 37.5 6 6 54.5 3 100.0 31 21.4 41 100.0 34 37.5 6 14.3 50.0 4 85.7 2 90.9 0.0 3 4 14.3 100.0 2 3 0.0 51 34 57.1 3! 43.8 (d) 14.3 3 2 6 0.0 34 57.1 3! 43.8 6 14.3 25.0 3 54.5 3 6 28.6 2 0.0 41 31.8 14.3 25.0 6 3 2 0.0 34 57.1 41 22.7 3 6 25.0 28.6 31 21.4 24 50.0 3| 3 25.0 13.6 28.6 31 21.4 24 50.0 34 3 14.3 25.0 9.1 3 28.6 75.0 2| 3 3 0.0 14.3 37.5 3 28.6 24 50.0 3 4 0.0 14.3 37.5 3 85.7 24 50.0 4 9.1 14.3 62.5 3 85.7 34 24 50.0 9.1 3 100.0 3 14.3 100.0 3f 71.4 34 a These rates represent the average rates for each week as given by the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. t> For explanation of schedule of months and weeks, see p. 13, note (&). cFor explanation of method of computing index numbers, see p. 235, note (<0, and pp. 13-15. d No satisfactory quotations are available for this week; quoted rates, if any, being purely nominal. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 16.7 16.7 25.0 33.3 33.3 45.8 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.7 16.7 16.7 33.3 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 16.7 41.7 25.0 41.7 58.3 58.3 58.3 41.7 41.7 58.3 91.7 91.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 240 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. T A B L E 3.—Seasonal variations in the relative demand for moneyed capital as evidenced by interest rates,0'four monthsi time paper, 1900 1901 1902 1903 j 1904 1905 1906 1890-1908—Continued. 1907 1908 c 1 Month and week, t Inter- Index Internumest est rates. bers, d rates. Index Internumest bers, d rates. Per ct. Per ct. Perct. 6 100.0 41 66.7 51 5 66.7 4-i- 55.6 41 5 66.7 4 44.4 41 4* 41.7 31 11.1 41 4 33.3 31 11.1 41 4 33.3 31 22.2 41 41 41.7 31 33.3 41 41 58.3 3f 33.3 41 41 58.3 3 0.0 41 41 58.3 41 31 11.1 5 66.7 4| 31 33.3 5 66.7 41 31 16.7 41 41.7 41 31 22.2 4 33.3 4 31 33.3 4 33.3 4| 41 66.7 31 29.2 41 41 66.7 31 25.0 44.4 41 4 31 25.0 41 41 55.6 3* 16.7 41 41 77.8 31 16.7 41 41 66.7 3 4§ 0.0 41 55.6 31 16.7 4| 41 55.6 3J 44.4 41 16.7 4 3 41 0.0 31 22.2 31 16.7 44.4 41 4 31 44.4 41 8.3 4 3$ 16.7 44.4 41 4 31 16.7 77.8 5 4f 3£ 25.0 41 66.7 41 4 33.3 41 66.7 41 4 33.3 41 77.8 4| 4 33.3 41 41 77.8 4 5 33.3 4} 77.8 4i 77.8 5 41.7 4f 4J 77.8 41.7 4| 51 4 88.9 33.3 5 51 4 33.3 6 51 100.0 41 41.7 88.9 7 5 41 50.0 7 41 77.8 5 77.8 6 66.7 4| 5 72.2 61 66.7 4| 41 50.0 7 41 66.7 6 5 83.3 4| 66.7 6 4| 41 j 66.7 58.3 51 41 j 66.7 41 50.0 51 77.8 4i 4i 58.3 5| 88.9 5 4i 58.3 i 41 66.7 41 41.7 j 6 41 55.6 4| 58.3 6 5i 100.0 45 62.5 51 100.0 6 4! 58.3 5 ! 88.9 6 41 58.3 Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 June— 22 23 24 25 July— 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.— 31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.— 44 45 46 47 Dec—48 49 50 51 52 Index Internumest bers, d rates. 41.7 25.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 8.3 4.2 4.2 8.3 12.5 16.7 16.7 0.0 12.5 16.7 4.2 8.3 29.2 25.0 12.5 12.5 16.7 25.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 33.3 16.7 25.0 29.2 16.7 33.3 33.3 41.7 50.0 66.7 100.0 100.0 66.7 75.0 100.0 66.7 66.7 50.0 58.3 | 58.3 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.7 Index Inter- Index Internumest numest bers, d rates, i bers, d rates. Index Inter- Index Inter- Index Inter- j Index num- i est numnumest 1 numest bers. d rates. bers, d rates. bers, d rates. bers, d Perct. Perct. Per ct. Perct. 3§ 16.0 51 62.5 6 41 100.0 31 51 62.5 8.0 4 | | 84.2 51 1 43.8 21 4| 63.2 0.0 4f 3i 31 12.0 41 37.5 68.4 4f 4 21 41 37.5 0.0 4f 41 73.7 31.3 31 4f 8.0 4! 41 73.7 31.3 31 12.0 4f 68.4 51 4 31 12.0 41 43.8 51 31 57.9 3| 51 62.5 57.9 16.0 3! 5f 81.3 3| 5f 63.2 16.0 3i 51 31 | 12.0 51 81.3 51 | 31 1 47.4 31 20.0 51 62.5 51 31 47.4 68.8 3 * | 24.0 SI 41 31 36.8 3| 51 62.5 24.0 51 31 36.8 50.0 3* 5 24.0 51 31 36.8 31.3 31 20.0 26.3 3 4| 51 31 20.0 15.8 2f 41 25.0 51 2 3 | ! 24.0 15.8 41 25.0 1 5t! 0.0 31 | 20.0 26.3 3 5 4 0.0 31 ! 12.0 4 31 47.4 4*| 0.0 31 12.0 26.3 4 3 41 31 12.0 21.1 51 62.5 41 2i 31 12.0 41 43.8 4| 2* 10.5 50.0 3f 16.0 5 4* 21 15.8 31 12.0 5.3 41 25.0 41 21 31 8.0 10.5 41 25.0 5 2f 18.8 31 12.0 0.0 4| 51 2| 31 16.0 51 62.5 41 31 36.8 31 16.0 51 75.0 3 # 26.3 4* 3| 16.0 51 62.5 26.3 3 41 50.0 31 16.0 5 26.3 3 41 31 20.0 26.3 3 51 62.5 51 3§ 16.0 26.3 3 51 62.5 5t 31 28.0 26.3 3 51 75.0 6 41 40.0 51 62.5 31 47.4 6t 4| 48.0 51 75.0 3* 52.6 7 81.3 4f 48.0 5f 31 57.9 7 4| 48.0 6 100.0 31 63.2 71 41 52.0 51 87.5 31 57.9 71 4f 56.0 51 56.2 31 57.9 6 50.0 41 64.0 5 31 57.9 51 43.8 41 60.0 4i 52.6 3f 51 50.0 41 60.0 5 42.1 3| 61 41 64.0 51 87.5 31 57.9 6 51 84.0 51 87.5 31 47.4 61 6 100.0 51 62.5 31 57.9 7 81.3 5f 80.0 5f 31 63.2 7 41 64.0 51 87.5 7 31 63.2 51 75.0 6 100.0 4 7 68.4 5f 68.8 51 96.0 7-1 31 57.9 41 37.5 5| 96.0 8 52.6 3f 41 37.5 6 100.0 | 71 31 42.1 44.8 31.0 10.3 6.9 6.9 10.3 31.0 24.1 27.6 27.6 20.7 24.1 13.8 24.1 41.4 24.1 37.9 37.9 17.2 6.9 3.5 13.8 ] 0.0 6.9 3.5 17.2 20.7 13.8 10.3 13.8 13.8 20.7 34.5 44.8 55.2 72.4 72.4 86.2 79.3 44.8 37.9 41.4 51.7 44.8 58.6 72.4 72.4 72.4 72.4 86.2 100.0 79.3 Per ct. 61 6 6 51 51 fit fit 51 5t 51 61 6 6 51 4* 41 4f 4 41 4* 41 4 41 41 41 5 5 62.5 50.0 50.0 28.1 37.5 34.4 34.4 37.5 34.4 43.8 62.5 50.0 50.0 31.3 15.6 6.3 15.6 0.0 6.3 15.6 6.3 0.0 18.8 12.5 18.8 25.0 25.0 5* 40.6 fit i 34.4 34.4 6t 51 43.8 61 56.3 65.6 6| 75.0 7 61 56.3 50.0 6 50.0 6 50.0 6 50.0 6 61 56.3 61 | 62.5 50.0 6 | 61 68.8 (O (O (O («) 00 (O 100.0 8 100.0 8 1 a These rates represerjit the a-\rerage rates for each weelc as giv(sn by th(3 Finan 3ial Revi ew and the Comimercia I and Firtancial <Dhronicl e. 6 For explanation of schedul er of months and weeks, s ee p. 13, note (6 c Average fi£ aires for the 19 5 ears 189()-1908 a re given in Tabl e I I I of the Texl;(p.20). d For explan ation of method ofcomp uting iridex nurfibers, s ee p. 235 note (c ), and pix 13-15 « No satisfac tory quo tations are avail able for this week, quote)d rates, if any, being p urely no rninal. Perct. 100.0 6 81.5 5t 55.6 41 55.6 41 51.9 4t 41 j 55.6 59.3 4t 48.2 41 40.7 4 37.0 31 37.0 31 33.3 3* 37.0 31 29.6 3* 3t 29.6 3 11.1 31 14.8 31 18.5 31 14.8 31 18.5 31 14.8 21 3.7 2* 0.0 2* 0.0 31 14.8 21 3.7 2f 3.7 31 14.8 3| 22.2 31 22.2 31 25.9 31 18.5 31 14.8 3 11.1 21 7.4 31 18.5 31 18.5 31 25.9 31 18.5 31 14.8 3| 22.2 3| 22.2 31 18.5 31 25.9 4 40.7 25.9 31 18.5 3i 3f 22.2 3| 22.2 3* 29.6 31 25.9 31 18.5 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. APPENDIX T A B L E 4.—Seasonal variations B.—NEW Y O R K CITY C L E A R I N G - H O U S E BANKS, in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New inclusive.a 241 1890-1908. York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, [ A m o u n t expressed i n millions of dollars.] 1890. N e t deposits. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. | Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week.& Index n u m b e r . c| A m o u n t . Jan.— 1, 2. 3. 4. Feb.— 5. 6. 7. 8. Mar.— 9. 399.7 400.3 403.4 400.3 404.3 412.4 414.2 414.6 409.7 406.2 404.7 403.5 404.6 408.1 406.6 403.8 399.6 399.8 402.2 400.6 399.8 397.1 397.0 395.1 395.5 397.1 404.6 403.0 402.3 400.0 401.6 406.1 402.2 397.7 392.5 395.0 393.2 392.6 394.0 401.8 406.8 406.1 402.2 10. 11. 12. Apr.—13. 14. 15. 16. 17. May—18. 19. 20. 21. June—22. 23. 24. 25. July—26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.—31. 32. 33. 34. Sept.—35 36 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44. 45. 46. 47. D e c — 48. 393.3 387.3 384.5 386.5 386.0 386.4 385.3 49. 50. 51. 52. 50.5 52.5 62.8 52.5 65.8 92.7 98.7 100.0 83.7 72.1 67.1 63.1 66.8 78.4 73.4 64.1 50.2 50.8 58.8 53.5 50.8 41.9 41.5 35.2 36.5 41.9 66.8 61.5 59.1 51.5 56.8 71.8 58.8 43.9 26.6 34.9 31.6 57.5 74.1 71.8 58.8 50.8 47.8 29.2 9.3 0.0 6.6 5.0 6.3 2.7 409.6 414.7 420.2 423.9 429.1 431.5 430.3 427.7 418.6 410.8 410.4 411.4 412.0 411.5 410.2 408.8 405.2 406.0 406.5 406.5 406.3 405.0 406.0 404.8 403.8 405.5 414.3 415.9 414.2 408.8 415.9 407.9 399.5 389.5 385.1 388.3 383.2 389.9 406.8 413.0 406.7 403.5 398.7 396.2 392.2 386.5 381.6 378.5 376.9 376.7 380.3 382.0 Index n u m b e r . c\ Amount. 60.0 69.3 79.4 86.1 95.6 100.0 97.8 93.1 76.5 62.2 61.5 63.3 64.4 63.5 61.1 58.6 52.0 53.5 54.4 54.4 54.0 51.6 53.5 51.3 49.5 52.6 68.6 71.5 68.4 58.6 71.5 56.9 41.6 23.4 15.3 21.2 11.9 24.1 54.9 66.2 54.7 48.9 40.1 35.6 28.3 17.9 8.9 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.6 9.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Index number, c A m o u n t . 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 50.0 25.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 50.0 25.0 25.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 104.1 109.7 112.8 121.0 121.5 117.7 115.0 110.6 107.0 102.9 103.6 106.2 107.3 104.3 103.0 103.5 104.6 104.6 103.1 103.6 105.0 106.1 106.4 108.1 107.0 108.0 107.4 110.2 109.2 108.2 112.9 103.2 99.2 94.8 95.7 95.6 92.5 99.3 115.7 114.7 104.8 100.5 99.5 99.7 95.5 95.7 95.5 95.0 91.8 94.7 99.5 103.2 Index n u m b e r , cj Per cent. 41.4 60.3 70.7 98.3 100.0 87.2 78.1 63.3 51.2 37.4 39.7 48.5 52.2 42.1 37.7 39.4 43.1 43.1 38.0 39.7 44.4 48.2 49.2 54.9 51.2 54.5 52.5 62.0 58.6 55.2 71.0 38.4 24.9 10.1 13.1 12.8 2.4 25.3 80.5 77.1 43.8 29.3 25.9 26.6 12.5 13.1 12.5 10.8 0.0 9.8 25.9 38.4 25.42 26.45 26.85 28.54 28.32 27.28 26.74 25.86 25.56 25.05 25.25 25.83 26.05 25.35 25.11 25.32 25.82 25.77 25.36 25.49 25.85 26.21 26.20 26.72 26.52 26.63 25.92 26.51 26.37 26.48 27.15 25.31 24.83 24.35 24.86 24.63 24.13 25.48 28.45 27.78 25.77 24.91 24.96 25.17 24.35 24.78 25.07 25.10 24.35 25.15 26.19 27.02 Direct Reverse index index number, c number.** 29.3 i 52.6 61,7 100.0 95.0 71.4 59.2 39.2 | 32.4 20.9 25.4 38.5 43.5 27.7 22.2 27.0 38.3 37.2 27.9 30.8 39.0 47.2 46.9 58.7 54.2 56.7 40.6 54.0 50.8 53.3 68.5 26.8 15.9 5.0 16.6 11.3 0.0 30.6 98.0 i 82.8 37.2 17.7 18.8 23.6 5.0 14.7 20.2 22.0 5.0 23.1 46.7 65.5 70.7 47.4 38.3 0.0 5.0 28.6 40.8 60.8 67.6 79.1 74.6 61.5 56.5 72.3 77.8 73.0 61.7 62.8 72.1 69.2 61.0 52.8 53.1 41 3 45.8 43.3 59.4 46.0 49.2 46.7 31.5 73.2 84.1 95.0 83.4 88.7 100.0 69.4 2.0 17.2 62.8 82.3 81.2 76.4 95.0 85.3 79.8 78.0 95.0 76.9 53.3 34.5 a T h e s e figures are based u p o n figures compiled for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. b T h e schedule of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t these t a b l e s , unless otherwise specified, represents a y e a r , s u c h a s 1893, i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is g i v e n as a n a i d to e n a b l e one t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e year i n w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c l n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s , t h e m i n i m u m w e e k l y figure for each year is t a k e n as 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n as 100, a n d t h e other figures are p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , are represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 (eighth w e e k ) , are represented b y 387,300,000-384,500,000^ a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, w h i l e t h e forty-seventh w e e k is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 9.3, i. e. ( X100. Cf. p p . 13-15 a n d 22. V 414,600,000-384,500,000/ d T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e e x a c t reverse of those i n t h e preceding c o l u m n . I n t h i s case t h e m a x i m u m figure for t h e year is represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m i n i m u m figure b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, a n d t h e others a r e p r o r a t e d . T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s m a y b e considered a s i n a sense indices of m o n e t a r y stringency, rising as t h e y u s u a l l y d o w h e n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t t i g h t e n s a n d falling w h e n i t becomes slack. 16065°—11- -16 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 242 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908 inclusive—Continued.« [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1891. Net deposits. Loans. Bank-note circulation. Reserves (specie and legal tenders). Ratios of reserves to deposits. Month and week. & Index number, c Amount. Jan.— l 2. 3. 4. Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.—*9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 June— 22 23 24 25 July— 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35. 36 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40, 41. 42. 43. Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec.— 48 49 50. 51. 52. 384. 383. 385. 389. 397. 402. 403. 403. 404. 404. 408. 410. 412. 414. 412. 407. 404. 403. 398. 393. 389. 386. 383. 386. 389. 393. 392. 392. 390. 389. 391. 394. 395. 397. 400. 401. 404. 407. 405. 402. 405. 405. 408. 411. 412. 417. 418. 422. 429. 438. 1.8 0.7 4.7 12.1 26.6 34.2 36.9 37.6 39.2 38.2 45.2 49.5 53.8 55.8 52.7 43.2 38.7 36.0 28.1 18.0 10.8 5.8 0.0 5.8 12.4 19.6 16.2 17.1 13.7 11.9 14.6 19.8 22.5 25.7 31.7 33.3 38.9 44.6 41.0 35.6 40.1 40.7 45.0 50.8 45.9 46.1 53.1 62.8 63.0 71.6 83.3 100.0 390.3 398.1 405.4 411.0 416.3 418.9 416.5 414.4 412.4 410.7 414.2 415.4 415.6 416.1 414.9 410.1 407.1 403.6 398.5 391.2 387.1 383.8 383.4 394.8 402.0 404.6 402.7 408.8 406.7 4 5.1 404.2 405.7 402.9 403.4 402.8 403.9 406.5 404.6 402.5 404.7 413.1 416.4 418.1 416.8 416.9 422.3 427.3 433.9 436.6 446.5 455.3 466.2 Index number, c Amount. Index number, c 8.3 17.8 26.6 33.3 39.7 42.9 40.0 37.4 35.0 33.0 37.2 38.6 38.9 39.5 38.0 32.2 28.6 24.4 18.2 9.4 4.5 0.5 0.0 13.8 22.5 25.6 23.3 30.7 28.1 26.2 25.1 26.9 23.6 24.2 23.4 24.8 27.9 25.6 23.1 25.7 35.9 39.9 41.9 40.3 40.5 47.0 53.0 61.0 64.3 76.2 86.8 100.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 0.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0*0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 4.5 9.1 9.1 13.6 22.7 27.3 36.4 59.1 68.2 77.3 90.9 95.5 95.5 95.5 100.0 100.0 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.5 100.0 95.5 95.5 95.5 100.0 95.5 110.9 118.7 125.4 126.6 124.3 123.2 119.5 117.2 113.9 112.4 112.6 112.2 110.3 109.6 108.0 109.5 109.1 105.6 104.5 103.0 104.2 102.6 106.3 114.8 118.9 116.6 115.2 120.6 121.3 120.7 119.4 119.0 114.8 113.6 109.8 109.7 109.3 105.1 103.7 107.8 112.3 116.4 116.8 111.1 113.6 118.9 121.7 122.3 124.5 130.7 133.3 133.8 Index number.c 26.6 51.6 73.1 76.9 69.6 66.0 54.2 46.8 36.2 31.4 32.1 30.8 24.7 22.4 17.3 22.1 20.8 9.6 6.1 1.3 5.1 0.0 11.9 39.1 52.2 44.9 40.4 57.7 59.9 58.0 53.8 52.6 39.1 35.3 23.1 22.8 21.5 8.0 3.5 16. 7 | 31.1 44.2 45.5 27.2 35.3 52.2 61.2 63.1 70.2 90.1 98.4 100.0 cent. 28.42 29.81 30.94 30.82 29.86 29.41 28.69 28.28 27.62 27.38 27.18 27.01 26.53 26.34 26.03 26.70 26.82 26.18 26.23 26.33 26.94 26.74 27.73 29.09 29.58 28.82 28.60 29.52 29.84 29.80 29.55 29.34 28.50 28.16 27.27 27.15 26.90 25.99 25.77 26.64 27.19 27.95 27.95 26.66 27.27 28.16 28.48 28.19 28.51 29.27 29.28 28.69 Direct Reverse index index. number.c number.** 51.4 78.2 100.0 97.7 79.2 70.5 56.5 48.7 35.9 31.3 27.4 24.0 14.9 11.2 5.0 18.2 20.5 8.1 9.1 11.0 22.8 18.9 38.0 64.3 73.8 59.1 54.8 72.6 78.8 78.0 73.2 69.1 52.9 46.3 29.2 26.9 22.0 4.5 0.0 17.0 27.6 42.3 42.3 17.2 29.2 46.3 52.5 46.9 53.1 67.7 68.8 56.6 48.6 21.8 0.0 2.3 20.8 29.5 43.5 51.3 64.1 68.7 72.6 76.0 85.1 88.8 95.0 81.8 79.5 91.9 90.9 89.0 77.2 81.1 62.0 35.7 26.2 40.9 45.2 27.4 21.2 22.0 26.8 30.9 47.1 53.7 70.8 73.1 78.0 95.5 100.0 83.0 72.4 57.7 57.7 82.8 70.8 53.7 47.5 53.1 46.9 32.3 32.2 43.4 a These figures are based upon figures compiled for the National Monetary Commission from the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. & The schedule of months used throughout these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, such as 1893, in which January 1 falls upon Sunday. It is given as an aid to enable one to locate approximately the time in the year in which the different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, note (&). c l n computing index numbers, the minimum weekly figure for each year is taken as 0, the maximum weekly figure is taken as 100, and the other figures are prorated. For example, the minimum loans in 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth week), are represented by an index number of 0, the maximum loans, $414,600,000 (eighth week), are represented by an index number of 100, while the forty-seventh week is represented by an index number of 9.3, i. e. / | | ^ ^ ° Q ~ ^ > ^ > ° ^ ) X100. Cf. pp. 13-15 and 22. d These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually do when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. T A B L E 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, 243 bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued .a [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1892. N e t deposits. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week, b Amount. Jan.— 1 . 3. 4. Feb.- 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 A p r . - 13 14 15 16 17 M a y - 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 25 J u l y - 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35. 36 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40 41 42 43. Nov.— 44 45 46 47 D e c — 48 49. 50. 51. 52. Index n u m b e r . c| A m o u n t . 492. 490. 488. 492. 493. 496. 495. 494. 492. 482. 480. 484. 11.2 13.8 16.2 27.0 39.1 48.6 66.1 73.4 86.7 94.0 96.9 89.6 88.4 90.4 95.0 92.1 94.2 95.5 92.5 90.4 86.9 93.5 95.2 100.0 97.8 96.6 92.7 76.0 72.6 80.2 492. 490. 487. 482. 475. 466. 464. 463. 459. 452. 449. 449. 446. 444. 442. 444. 442. 441. 438. 437. 92.5 90.1 84.0 75.5 63.9 49.3 46.2 43.5 37.1 24.8 19.4 19.2 14.1 11.1 8.3 11.7 8.3 7.0 0.9 0.0 444. 445. 447. 453. 460. 466. 476. 480. 488. 493. 494. 490. 489. 490. 493. 491. 477.3 486.3 497.4 509.5 515.3 521.5 531.2 531.9 533.5 531.9 534.3 530.1 528.4 528.0 531.8 533.9 535.7 531.8 530.7 534.4 536.1 542.0 542.0 543.6 538.4 534.6 530.7 523.8 524.0 529.1 528.4 525.2 524.4 517.0 509.0 500.1 491.8 480.5 476.5 472.4 468.1 460.8 457.0 455.8 451.6 452.1 452.0 454.8 451.0 449.1 444.3 444.5 Index n u m b e r . cl A m o u n t . 33.2 42.3 53.5 65.7 71.5 77.7 87.5 88.2 89.8 88.2 90.6 86.4 84.7 84.3 88.1 90.2 92.0 88.1 87.0 90.7 92.4 98.4 98.4 100.0 94.8 90.9 87.0 80.1 80.3 85.4 84.7 81.5 80.7 73.2 65.2 56.2 47.8 36.5 32.4 28.3 24.0 16.6 12.8 11.6 7.4 7.9 7.8 10.6 6.8 4.8 0.0 0.2 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 Index n u m b e r , cl 50.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 25.0 50.0 50.0 75.0 75.0 50.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 J.00.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 25.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 50.0 50.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 50.0 50.0 75.0 50.0 Index n u m b e r , cl P e r c e n t . 138.3 146.1 157.3 163.3 162.2 164.0 163.6 159.9 154.6 149.1 149.7 150.5 150.1 147.8 148.7 153.0 153.9 147.7 148.4 153.1 158.6 159.1 159.0 158.6 154.6 151.7 148.2 151.1 154.0 156.5 150.9 147.0 143.4 139.1 134.8 129.8 127.8 125.1 123.5 120.0 117.5 117.5 118.1 116.6 115.5 117.6 119.7 120.2 118.2 117.7 117.2 117.9 47.0 63.1 86.2 98.6 96.3 100.0 99.2 91.6 80.6 69.3 70.5 72.2 71.3 66.6 68.5 77.3 79.2 66.4 67.8 77.5 88.9 89.9 89.7 88.9 80.6 74.6 67.4 73.4 79.4 84.5 73.0 65.0 57.5 48.7 39.8 29.5 25.4 19.8 16.5 9.3 4.1 4.1 5.4 2.3 0.0 4.3 8.7 9.7 5.6 4.5 3.5 4.9 28.97 30.05 31.63 32.07 31.49 31.46 30.80 30.07 28.99 28.04 28.02 28.40 28.41 28.00 27.96 28.68 28.74 27.78 27.97 28.66 29.59 29.37 29.34 29.19 28.71 28.38 27.93 28.85 29.40 29.57 28.55 28.00 27.36 26.91 26.49 25.95 25.99 26.05 25.92 25.40 25.11 25.50 25.85 25.57 25.59 26.00 26.49 26.42 26.22 26.21 26.38 26.53 Reverse Direct index index n u m b e r . > number.** 55.4 70.9 93.7 100.0 91.6 91.2 81.7 71.2 55.6 42.0 41.8 47.2 47.4 41.5 40.9 51.2 52.0 38.2 41.0 50.9 64.3 61.1 60.7 58.5 51.7 46.9 40.4 53.7 61.6 64.0 49.3 41.4 32.2 25.7 19.6 11.9 12.4 13.3 11.6 4.0 0.0 5.4 10.4 6.4 6.7 12.6 19.6 18.6 15.8 15.6 18.1 20.2 a T h e s e figures a r e based u p o n figures compiled for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. & T h e schedule of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t these tables, unless o t h e r w i s e specified, represents a year, such a s 1893, i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is g i v e n a s a n a i d t o e n a b l e one t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e y e a r i n w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c I n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s t h e m i n i m u m weekly figure for each year is t a k e n as 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n as 100, a n d t h e other figures a r e p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , are represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 (eighth w e e k ) , are r e p r e s e n t e d 387 300 000 384 500 000 \ ;rrAnA-nn O O 7 T A ^ ^ » IX100. Cf. p p . 13-15 a n d 22. ( 414,OUO,UOU—oo4,o0U,UUU/ d These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually do when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. 244 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. TABLE 4 —Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New Yorlc City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued.a [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1893. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. N e t deposits. Reserves, specie a n d legal t e n d e r s . R a t i o s of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week.& Amount. Jan.— 1 2 o 4 Feb.— 5 6 / 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21 June—22 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 S e p t —35 . 36 37 38 Oct 39 40 41 42 43 45 46 47 49 50 51 52 441.3 439.9 447.1 455.2 464.9 464.3 462.5 458.6 452.9 444.8 439.3 434.5 433.5 434.2 431.5 429.0 426.0 425.7 420.8 417.0 415.9 416.7 414.4 410.7 406.0 413.6 418.7 413.5 409.2 406.5 408.5 411.3 406.5 403.6 400.2 397.0 392.9 392.1 392.5 393.3 394.9 394.0 397.3 402.4 403.0 401.7 405.2 409.5 412.3 415.4 416.3 417.6 Index number, c 67.4 65.5 75.4 86.4 100.0 98.9 96.4 91.1 83.3 72.2 64.7 58.1 56.7 57.7 54.0 50.6 46.4 46.0 39.3 34.1 32.6 33.7 30.6 25.5 19.0 29.5 36.4 29.3 23.4 19.7 22.5 26.3 19.7 15.8 11.1 6.7 1.1 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.8 2.6 7.1 14.1 14.9 13.2 17.9 23.8 27.7 31.9 33.2 34.9 Amount. 455.3 462.8 479.9 488.7 495.4 491.7 483.6 472.7 462.0 447.2 441.9 439.5 439.3 438.6 439.6 440.7 432.2 433.9 434.8 438.6 436.7 431.4 418.9 406.5 398.0 397.9 398.6 394.1 390.4 382.1 372.6 372.2 370.3 370.4 374.0 373.7 377.2 383.9 390.9 400.1 412.7 421.6 433.2 447.4 455.7 464.6 475.3 487.3 492.8 495.5 498.8 506.4 Index number, c Amount. 62.5 68.0 80.5 87.0 91.9 89.2 83.2 75.2 67.4 56.5 52.6 50.8 50.7 50.2 50.9 51.7 45.5 46.7 47.4 50.2 48.8 44.9 35.7 26.6 20.4 20.3 20.8 17.5 14.8 8.7 1.7 1.4 0.0 0.1 2.7 2.5 5.1 10.0 15.1 21.9 31.2 37.7 46.2 56.6 62.7 69.3 77.2 86.0 90.0 92.0 94.4 100.0 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 7.0 7.7 8.7 9.9 11.2 12.7 13.6 14.3 14.9 14.9 14.6 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.1 Index number,c 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 1.1 2.1 3.2 5.3 6.4 8.5 16.0 23.4 34.0 46.8 60.6 76.6 86.2 93.6 100.0 100.0 96.8 96.8 94.7 93.6 90.4 88.3 86.2 86.2 84.0 81.9 80.8 Amount. 122.7 131.3 142.5 145.3 142.5 140.1 134.5 127.5 122.0 116.4 116.5 119.1 120.4 118.8 120.9 124.9 120.2 121.3 126.5 134.0 134.5 128.8 119.1 110.4 104.9 100.7 94.5 94.2 96.3 91.2 79.1 76.5 80.5 85.8 91.9 96.4 104.8 113.5 121.8 128.6 137.9 148.0 157.0 163.8 171.7 181.6 189.6 197.9 199.7 200.0 202.6 207.4 Index number, c 35.3 41.9 50.4 52.6 50.4 48.6 44.3 39.0 34.8 30.5 30.6 32.5 33.5 32.3 33.9 37.0 33.4 34.2 38.2 43.9 44.3 40.0 32.5 25.9 21.7 18.5 13.8 13.5 15.1 11.2 2.0 0.0 3.1 7.1 11.8 15.2 21.6 28.3 34.6 39.8 46.9 54.6 61.5 66.7 72.7 80.3 86.4 92.7 94.1 94.3 96.3 100.0 Per cent. 26.96 28.38 29.69 29.73 28.76 28.50 27.81 26.98 26.41 26.03 26.36 27.10 27.42 27.10 27.52 28.32 27.81 27.95 29.09 30.56 30.82 29.84 28.43 27.15 26.37 25.31 23.72 23.91 24.67 23.87 21.24 20.55 21.74 23.17 24.58 25.79 27.81 29.57 31.16 32.15 33.43 35.11 36.26 36.61 37.68 39.09 39.90 40.61 40.53 40.37 40.62 40.95 Direct Reverse index index n u m b e r , c number.** 31.4 38.4 44.8 45.0 40.3 39.2 35.6 31.5 28.9 26.9 28.5 32.1 33.7 32.1 34.2 38.1 35.6 36.3 41.9 49.1 50.4 45.6 38.7 32.4 28.6 23.4 15.6 16.5 20.2 16.3 3.4 0.0 5.9 12.9 19.8 25.7 35.6 44.2 52.0 56.9 63.2 71.4 77.0 78.7 84.0 90.9 94.9 98.3 97.9 97.2 98.4 100.0 68.6 61.6 55.2 55.0 59.7 60.8 64.4 68.5 71.3 73.1 71.5 67.9 66.3 67.9 65.8 61.9 64.4 63.7 58.1 50.9 49.6 54.4 61.3 67.6 71.4 76.6 84.4 83.5 79.8 83.7 96.6 100.0 94.1 87.1 80.2 74.3 64.4 55.8 48.0 43.1 36.8 28.6 23.0 21.3 16.0 9.1 5.1 1.7 2.1 2.8 1.6 0.0 a These figures are based upon figures compiled for the National Monetary Commission from the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. 6 The schedule of months used throughout these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, such as 1893, in which January 1 falls upon Sunday. It is given as an aid to enable one to locate approximately the time in the year in which the different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, note (&). c i n computing index numbers, the minimum weekly figure for each year is taken as 0, the maximum weekly figure is taken as 100, and the other figures are prorated. For exanrole. the minimum loans in 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth week), are represented by an index number of 0, the maximum loans, $414,600,000 (eighth week), are represented by /387,300,000-384,500,000\ 3l ^414,600,000-384,500,000/| X100. Cf. pp. 13-15 and 22. d These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually do when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. ( SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 245 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued.a [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1894. Bank-note circulation. Net deposits. Loans. Reserves, specie and legal tenders. Ratios of reserves to deposits. Index number, c Amount. Jan.— 1. 2. 3. 4. Feb.- 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 16 17 May—18. 19. 20 21. June— 22 23 24 25 July— 26 27 28 29 30 A u g . - 31 32 33 34 Sept.—35. 36. 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40 . 41. 42. 43. Nov.—44. 45. 46. 47. Dec—48 . 49. 50. 51 . 52. 418. 418. 419. 418. 419. 432. 443. 445. 443. 450. 456. 459. 460. 465. 467. 467. 466. 465. 465. 465. 468. 470. 483. 482. 482. 481. 482. 484. 491. 495. 497. 497. 500. 500. 500. 499. 500. 499. 498. 495. 499. 507. 506. 498. 492. 0.7 0.0 1.7 0.7 1.5 16.1 23.6 25.8 23.6 24.3 27.9 30.7 28.7 36.1 43.3 45.8 47.8 52.6 55.2 54.7 54.4 52.4 52.9 53.2 56.1 58.0 73.5 72.2 72.1 71.0 71.8 74.4 76.3 79.1 80.3 82.3 86.1 89.3 88.9 92.0 91.8 92.5 91.3 92.5 91.3 90.4 86.0 91.1 100.0 99.3 89.7 83.3 518.5 527.9 542.3 547.6 551.8 534.1 529.9 532.7 531.7 533.1 540.2 544.4 547.7 554.4 563.5 569.5 573.8 578.6 579.1 578.1 574.1 572.1 570.8 570.4 573.3 573.3 588.5 589.5 589.1 584.0 581.5 581.0 584.8 585.7 585.9 583.7 586.6 587.9 586.6 589.6 590.8 594.7 594.2 595.1 592.1 594.5 592.3 579.8 566.0 564.8 554.5 549.2 Index number, c Amount. 0.0 12.3 31.1 38.0 43.5 20.4 14.9 18.5 17.2 19.1 28.3 33.8 38.1 46.9 58.8 66.6 72.2 78.5 79.1 77.8 72.6 70.0 68.3 67.8 71.5 71.5 91.4 92.7 92.2 85.5 82.3 81.6 86.6 87.7 88.0 85.1 88.9 90.6 88.9 92.8 94.4 99.5 98.8 100.0 96.1 99.2 96.3 80.0 62.0 60.4 47.0 40.1 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.4 11.9 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.6 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.2 Index number. c\ Amount. 100.0 97.1 91.2 88.2 88.2 82.4 67.7 58.8 58.8 55.9 50.0 47.1 47.1 44.1 41.2 29.4 14.7 14.7 11.8 11.8 8.8 5.9 2.9 0.0 20.6 14.7 8.8 5.9 5.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 5.9 11.8 23.5 35.3 44.1 55.9 61.8 58.8 55.9 47.1 44.1 44.1 44.1 44.1 44.1 44.1 47.1 213.3 224.5 238.3 245.8 249.5 219.0 206.9 207.9 208.6 208.8 212.2 215.1 220.4 219.3 221.6 224.3 226.8 227.3 225.3 223.5 221.1 220.9 219.5 218.9 219.7 218.0 219.2 221.2 221.3 217.8 214.3 212.2 214.0 213.1 212.2 207.8 206.5 206.8 207.4 206.8 208.4 211.1 212.4 211.9 209.6 211.5 214.0 197.1 174.3 174.5 172.4 172.5 Index number, c Per cent. 53.0 67.6 85.5 95.2 100.0 60.4 44.7 46.0 47.0 47.2 51.6 55.4 62.3 60.8 63.8 67.3 70.6 71.2 68.6 66.3 63.2 62.9 61.1 60.3 61.4 59.1 60.7 63.3 63.4 58.9 54.3 51.6 54.0 52.8 51.6 45.9 44.2 44.6 45.4 44.6 46.7 50.2 51.9 51.2 48.3 50.7 54.0 32.0 2.5 2.7 0.0 0.1 41.16 42.53 43.94 44.90 45.20 41.00 39.06 39.03 39.25 39.18 39.28 39.52 40.26 39.56 39.34 39.39 39.53 39.30 38.92 38.66 38.51 38.62 38.46 38.38 38.32 38.04 37.25 37.54 37.59 37.31 36.87 36.53 36.59 36.39 36.23 35.60 35.21 35.20 35.36 35.08 35.29 35.51 35.75 35.62 35.41 35.59 36.15 34.00 30.81 30.90 31.11 31.42 fli Month and week.& 71.9 81.4 91.2 97.9 100.0 70.8 57.3 57.1 58.7 58.2 58.9 60.5 65.7 60.8 59.3 59.6 60.6 59.0 56.4 54.6 53.5 54.3 53.2 52.6 52.2 50.2 44.8 46.8 47.0 45.2 42.1 39.7 40.2 45.7 37.7 33.3 30.6 30.5 31.6 29.7 31.1 32.7 34.3 33.4 32.0 33.2 37.1 22.2 0.0 0.6 2.1 4.2 Reverse index number.** 28.1 18.6 8.8 2.1 0.0 29.2 42.7 42.9 41.3 41.8 41.1 39.5 34.3 39.2 40.7 40.4 39.4 41.0 43.6 45.4 46.5 45.7 46.8 47.4 47.8 49.8 55.2 53.2 53.0 54.8 57.* 60.3 59.8 54.3 62.3 66.7 69.4 69.5 68.4 70.3 68.9 67.3 65.7 66.6 68.0 66.8 62.9 77.8 100.0 99.4 97.9 95.8 a These figures are based upon figures compiled for the National Monetary Commission from the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. b The schedule of months used throughout these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, such as 1893, in which January 1 falls upon Sunday. It is given as an aid to enable one to locate approximately the time in the year in which the different weeks fall. Cf. p. 13, note (&). cln computing index numbers, the minimum weekly figure for each year is taken as 0, the maximum weekly figure is taken as 100, and the other figures are prorated. For example, the minimum loans in 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth week), are represented by an index number of 0, the maximum loans, $414,600,000 (eighth week), are represented by 387 >300 000 384, 500, 000 \ X l 0 0 Cf P P 1 3 _ 1 5 a n d 22 414 6ft0000-384 500 Q00 ) ' * " " d These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually do when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. ( NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 246 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued.a [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1895. N e t deposits. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. | R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o d e p o s i t s . Month, a n d w e e k . & Amount. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 A p r . — 13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27 28 29 30.... 3tug.— 31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 N o v . — 44 45 46 47 D e c — 48 49 50 51 52 Index number, c Amount. 493.4 489.7 490.3 490.2 490.3 484.6 483.4 482.6 484.2 489.3 489.0 484.7 482.5 480.4 481.0 480.7 480.5 484.9 489.9 495.3 500.1 502.5 503.4 507.9 512.9 513.4 513.6 511.1 506.9 506.2 509.3 511.0 511.3 513.5 513.3 518.4 522.7 517.2 511.4 510.2 506.6 504.3 502.5 500.7 495.9 1 492.9 492.7 490.0 489.8 493.0 489.6 478.5 33.7 25.3 26.7 26.4 26.7 13.8 11.1 9.3 12.9 24.4 23.7 14.0 9.0 4.3 5.7 5.0 4.5 14.5 ! 25.8 ! 28.9 48.8 54.2 56.3 66.4 77.7 78.9 79.3 73.7 64.2 62.6 69.6 73.5 74.1 79.1 78.6 90.2 100.0 87.5 74.4 71.6 63.5 58.3 54.2 50.2 39.3 32.5 32.1 26.0 25.5 32.8 25.1 0.0 552.8 555.4 562.3 559.5 546.9 534.7 532.2 528.5 528.4 527.9 518.4 509.0 504.2 500.8 503.8 510.1 516.6 526.9 537.8 553.7 561.9 566.2 565.9 568.8 574.4 570.4 569.8 567.9 568.3 570.9 574.3 573.6 577.2 573.5 574.9 576.8 571.7 558.4 549.1 540.0 533.4 531.9 530.6 529.8 527.9 526.2 525.1 520.7 521.6 523.0 517.2 501.0 Index number. 4 Amount. 68.1 71.5 80.5 76.8 60.3 44.4 41.1 36.3 36.1 35.5 23.0 10.7 4.5 0.0 3.9 12.2 20.7 34.2 48.4 69.2 80.0 85.6 85.2 89.0 96.3 91.1 90.3 87.8 88.4 91.8 96.2 95.3 100.0 95.2 97.0 99.5 92.8 75.4 63.2 51.3 42.7 40.7 39.0 38.0 35.5 33.2 31.8 26.0 27.2 29.1 21.5 0.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.4 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 Index | number, c Amount. 3.2 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 6.5 9.7 19.4 22.6 25.8 29.0 32.3 48.4 54.8 58.1 61.3 58.1 58.1 61.3 61.3 64.5 61.3 61.3 61.3 58.1 58.1 58.1 58.1 61.3 58.1 58.1 58.1 61.3 64.5 64.5 71.0 74.2 80.6 90.3 93.5 96.8 90.3 87.1 100.0 1 96.8 90.3 83.9 83.9 87.1 83.9 83.9 83.9 174.0 180.6 185.9 185.6 173.4 167.3 166.5 161.9 160.0 154.7 147.1 141.3 139.3 139.0 140.7 147.1 154.4 158.9 165.4 175.9 180.3 182.7 181.0 180.0 180.0 176.8 174.5 175.3 180.5 184.6 184.4 182.2 185.4 180.9 182.8 179.0 169.6 161.9 159.5 151.4 147.4 148.3 149.3 150.0 151.2 151.8 150.8 148.7 150.6 149.0 146.3 141.1 Index number, c 74.6 88.7 100.0 99.4 73.3 60.3 58.6 48.8 44.8 33.5 17.3 4.9 0.6 0.0 3.6 17.3 32.8 42.4 56.3 78.7 88.1 93.2 89.6 87.4 . 87.4 80.6 75.7 77.4 88.5 97.2 96.8 92.1 98.9 89.3 93.4 85.3 65.2 48.8 43.7 26.4 17.9 19.8 22.0 23.5 26.0 27.3 25.2 20.7 24.7 21.3 15.6 4.5 Per cent. 31.48 32.52 33.08 33.17 31.71 31.31 31.29 30.64 30.30 29.31 28.39 27.77 27.63 27.76 27.96 28.85 29.89 30.16 30.77 31.77 32.11 32.28 32.00 31.66 31.36 30.99 30.62 30.88 31.77 32.35 32.13 31.78 32.14 31.54 31.80 31.04 29.66 29.01 29.06 28.04 27.63 27.88 28.14 28.32 28.64 28.87 28.73 28.56 28.88 28.49 28.30 28.18 Direct Reverse index index n u m b e r , c number.** 69.5 88.3 98.4 100.0 73.6 66.4 66.1 54.3 48.2 30.3 13.7 2.5 0.0 2.3 6.0 22.0 40.8 45.7 56.7 74.7 80.9 83.9 78.9 72.4 67.3 60.6 54.0 58.7 74.7 85.2 81.2 74.9 81.4 70.6 75.3 61.6 36.6 24.9 25.8 7.4 0.0 4.5 9.2 12.5 18.2 22.4 19.9 16.8 22.6 15.5 12.1 9.9 30.5 11.7 1.6 0.0 26.4 33.6 33.9 45.7 51.8 69.7 86.3 97.5 100.0 97.7 94.0 78.0 59.2 54.3 43.3 25.3 19.1 16.1 21.1 27.6 32.7 39.4 46.0 41.3 25.3 14.8 18.8 25.1 18.6 29.4 24.7 38.4 63.4 75.1 74.2 92.6 100.0 95.5 90.8 87.5 81.8 77.6 80.1 83.2 77.4 84.5 87.9 90.1 a These figures are based upon figures compiled for the National Monetary Commission from the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. b The schedule of months used throughout these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, such as 1893, in which January 1 falls upon Sunday. It is given as an aid to enable one to locate approximately the time in the year in which the different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, note (*>). c In computing index numbers the minimum weekly figure for each year is taken as 0, the maximum weekly figure is taken as 100, and the other figures are prorated. For example, the minimum loans in 11890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth week), are represented by an index number of 0, the maximum loans, $414,600,000 (eighth week), are represented r ' / 387 300 000—384 500 000 \ by an index number of 100, while the forty-seventh week is represented by an index number of 9.3, i. e. I 4i4,6QQ,QQQ_3g4,50(),000 ) X 1 0 0 - c f - PP- 1 3 ~ 1 5 a n d 22 d These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually do when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. T A B L E 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York inclusive—Continued. 247 City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908^ ° [ A m o u n t expressed i n millions of dollars.] 1896. B a n k - n o t e circulation. N e t deposits. Loans. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o d e p o s i t s . M o n t h a n d week. & Amount. Jan.— Feb.— Index n u m b e r . e\ A m o u n t . Index n u m b e r , cl A m o u n t . Index n u m b e r . c| A m o u n t . Index number. 1. 465.6 51.5 491.6 60.9 13.9 9.6 142.6 49.7 2. 458.2 35.2 491.2 60.4 14.0 11.0 149.9 65.6 3. 454.0 26.0 492.4 61.8 13.9 9.6 155.4 77.6 4. 447.9 12.5 489.7 58.7 13.8 8.2 160.0 87.6 5 447.1 10.8 490.4 59.5 13.7 6.9 162.1 92.2 6 448.4 13.6 492.7 62.1 13.4 2.7 163.3 94.8 7. 451.7 20.9 493.0 62.5 13.2 0.0 160.0 87.6 8. 457.8 34.3 489.7 58.7 13.3 1.4 151.0 68.0 9 462.5 44.7 489.6 58.6 13.6 5.5 146.8 58.8 10 464.5 49.1 488.8 57.7 13.9 9.6 145.4 55.8 11 466.5 53.5 489.8 58.8 14.2 13.7 143.8 52.3 12 467.5 55.7 488.0 56.8 14.1 12.3 141.0 46.2 Apr.—13 465.0 50.2 482.2 50.1 14.2 13.7 138.6 41.0 14 465.2 50.6 481.7 49.5 14.2 13.7 137.4 38.3 15 465.6 51.5 483.1 51.1 14.3 15.1 138.6 41.0 16 466.2 52.8 484.0 52.2 14.3 15.1 139.1 42.0 17 467.3 55.2 487.3 56.0 14.3 15.1 142.5 49.5 May— 18 470.7 62.7 495.0 64.8 14.3 15.1 146.6 58.4 19. 474.1 70.2 495.0 64.8 14.3 15.1 143.9 52.5 20, 476.5 75.5 497.9 68.1 14.3 15.1 143.0 50.5 21 473.4 68.6 497.0 67.1 14.5 17.8 145.9 56.9 June—22. 475.2 72.6 498.8 69.1 14.6 19.2 146.8 58.8 Mar.— 23 476.8 76.1 497.1 67.2 14.7 20.5 142.7 49.9 24. 474.3 70.6 496.8 66.8 14.5 17.8 144.7 54.3 25. 474.8 71.7 495.3 65.1 14.6 19.2 143.6 51.9 J u l y — 26 475.0 72.2 496.9 66.9 14.5 17.8 146.1 57.3 27 476.2 74.8 499.0 69.3 14.5 17.8 145.0 54.9 28. 477.2 77.0 503.4 74.4 14.5 17.8 148.0 61.4 29. 479.5 82.1 505.9 77.2 14.5 17.8 148.2 61.9 30. 474.2 70.4 493.3 62.8 14.6 19.2 141.8 47.9 Aug.—31 469.5 60.1 485.0 53.3 14.8 21.9 138.9 41.6 32 468.0 56.8 477.1 44.3 14.9 23.3 133.0 28.8 33. 464.9 49.9 467.3 33.1 15.7 34.2 126.1 13.7 34. 458.9 36.7 458.2 22.7 16.3 42.5 123.7 8.5 Sept.—35. 455.8 29.9 451.9 15.4 17.0 52.1 121.7 4.1 36. 453.1 24.0 447.0 9.8 17.9 64.4 119.8 0.0 37. 452.7 23.1 445.6 8.2 18.7 75.3 120.1 0.7 38. 451.9 21.3 445.9 8.6 19.2 82.2 121.9 4.6 39. 450.5 18.3 448.3 11.3 19.7 89.0 126.2 13.9 Oct.— 40. 453.2 24.2 454.7 18.7 19.9 91.8 130.2 22.7 41. 456.4 31.2 458.4 22.9 20.2 95.9 130.1 22.4 42 456.1 30.6 453.6 17.4 20.5 100.0 125.2 11.8 43. 450.1 17.4 448.4 11.4 20.5 100.0 127.0 15.7 Nov.—44. 446.2 8.8 446.4 9.2 20.4 98.6 128.9 19.8 45. 442.2 0.0 438.4 0.0 20.5 100.0 124.4 10.0 46. 445.4 7.0 454.3 18.2 20.4 98.6 137.0 37.5 47. 455.0 28.2 476.2 43.3 20.3 97.3 148.3 62.1 D e c — 48. 463.8 47.5 490.6 59.7 20.2 95.9 154.0 74.5 49. 472.4 66.4 502.0 f 72.8 19.9 91.8 157.8 82.8 50. 483.5 90.9 516.6 89.5 19.8 90.4 160.7 89.1 51. 487.0 98.6 523.5 97.4 19.7 89.0 164.1 96.5 52. 487.7 100.0 525.8 100,0 19.7 89.0 165.7 100.0 Per cent. 29.02 30.53 31.56 32.69 33.07 33.15 32.46 30.84 29.98 29.75 29.37 28.90 28.76 28.52 28.71 28.74 29.24 29.63 29.08 28.73 29.36 29.45 28.71 29.13 29.02 29.41 29.07 29.41 29.33 28.74 28.67 27.88 27.01 27.02 26.95 26.84 26.96 27.34 28.17 28.63 28.40 27.62 28.33 28.87 28.38 30.17 31.15 31.43 31.46 31.12 31.35 31.52 Direct Reverse index index number, c number.** 34.7 58.6 74.9 92.7 98.7 100.0 89.1 64.4 49.9 46.3 40.3 32.8 30.6 26.8 29.8 30.3 38.2 j 44.4 35.7 30.2 40.1 41.5 29.8 36.3 34.7 40.9 35.5 40.9 39.6 30.3 29.2 16.5 3.0 3.1 2.0 0.0 2.2 8.2 21.3 1 28.6 1 24.9 12.6 23.8 32.2 24.4 52.9 68.4 72.3 72.7 67.9 71.5 74.2 65.3 41.4 25.1 7.3 1.3 0.0 10.9 35.6 50.1 53.7 59.7 67.2 69.4 73.2 70.2 69.7 61.8 55.6 64.3 69.8 59.9 58.5 70.2 63.7 65.3 59.1 64.5 59.1 60.4 69.7 70.8 83.5 97.0 96.9 98.0 100.0 97.8 91.8 78.7 71.4 75.1 87.4 76.2 67.8 75.6 47.1 31.6 27.7 27.3 32.1 28.5 25.8 a T h e s e figures a r e b a s e d u p o n figures c o m p i l e d for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. b T h e s c h e d u l e of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t t h e s e t a b l e s , unless o t h e r w i s e specified, r e p r e s e n t s a y e a r , s u c h a s 1893, i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is g i v e n a s a n a i d t o e n a b l e o n e t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e y e a r i n w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c I n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s , t h e m i n i m u m w e e k l y figure for e a c h y e a r is t a k e n a s 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n as 100, a n d t h e o t h e r figures a r e p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , a r e r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 ( e i g h t h w e e k ) , a r e r e p r e s e n t e d b y / 3 8 7 300 000 384 500 000 \ a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, w h i l e t h e forty-seventh w e e k is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 9.3, i. e. I '' '' QQQ _ogSVan'QAA ) X100. Cf. p p . 13-15 a n d 22. d T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s a r e t h e e x a c t reverse of those i n t h e p r e c e d i n g c o l u m n . I n t h i s case t h e m a x i m u m figure for t h e y e a r is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m i n i m u m figure b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, a n d t h e o t h e r s a r e p r o r a t e d . T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s m a y b e considered a s i n a sense indices of m o n e t a r y s t r i n g e n c y , rising a s t h e y u s u a l l y d o w h e n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t t i g h t e n s a n d falling w h e n i t b e c o m e s slack. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 248 T A B L E 4.—Seasonal variations bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued .a in the loans, [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1897. B a n k - n o t e circulation. N e t deposits. Loans. Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o d e p o s i t s . M o n t h a n d week. & Amount. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 June—22 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31.. 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 D e c — 48 49 50 51 52 .' 491.1 491.4 490.3 488.8 497.5 500.4 498.7 497.6 502.1 505.9 506.4 504.5 502.7 502.5 504.0 504.8 505.8 504.9 506.0 505.0 507.5 511.9 513.7 518.5 521.7 532.7 533.8 534.2 540.1 543.0 549.6 552.2 558.6 560.9 569.3 576.6 579.3 576.6 572.0 571.7 569.1 562.2 567.2 574.0 575.3 580.2 594.3 597.7 607.7 606.7 610.6 607.8 Index number, c 1.9 2.1 1.2 0.0 7 1 9.5 8.1 7.2 10.9 14.0 14.4 12.9 11.4 11.2 12.5 13.1 13.9 13.2 14.1 13 3 15.4 19.0 20.4 24.4 27.0 36.0 36.9 37.3 42.1 44.5 49.9 54.5 57.3 59.2 66.1 72.1 74.3 72.1 68.3 68.1 65.9 60.3 64.4 70.0 71.0 75.0 86.6 89-4 97.6 96.8 100.0 97.7 Amount. 548.0 557.3 563.4 563.3 568.9 568.0 572.6 573.7 577.4 578.6 574.3 571.7 569.2 565 9 568.8 574.7 576.8 570.3 572.2 572.1 575.6 581.2 585.1 592.5 597.0 604.9 607.6 613.2 622.5 623.0 626.2 630.5 635.9 636.9 641.7 642.1 635.9 625.3 619. 3 616.7 616.0 617.4 625.3 632.3 635.3 643.1 659.8 666.2 675.1 669.8 669.1 675.0 Index number, c 0 0 7.3 12.1 12.0 17.2 15.7 19.4 20.2 23.1 24.1 20.7 18.6 16.7 14.1 16.4 21.0 22.7 17.5 19.0 19.0 21.7 26.1 29.2 35 0 38.6 44.8 46.9 51.3 58.6 59.0 61.5 64.9 69.2 69.9 73.7 74.0 69.2 60.8 56.1 54.1 53.5 54.6 60.8 66.3 68.7 74.8 88.0 93.0 100.0 95.8 95.3 99.9 Amount. 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.1 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.2 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.0 14.6 14.4 14.4 14.3 14 3 14.2 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16. Q 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.6 1 Index number, c 100.0 96.6 91.4 86.2 62.1 62.1 60.3 56.9 56.9 53.4 48.3 46.6 44.8 41.4 39.7 37.9 32.8 25.9 22.4 22.4 20.7 20.7 19.0 13.8 12.1 10.3 10.3 8.6 6.9 5.2 3.4 0.0 1.7 5.2 13.8 19.0 29.3 39.7 44.8 46.6 46.6 48.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 48.3 50.0 48.3 46.6 44.8 44.8 43.1 Amount. 180.9 191.4 197.9 199.8 196-7 193.5 198.8 200.9 199.8 197. 4 191.7 191. 7 189.8 187.5 189.1 192.8 193 1 186.6 187.5 188.9 190.4 190.6 193.8 196.4 198.5 192.5 193.2 199.3 202.9 201.3 197.5 196.5 198.7 198.7 194.5 187.1 178.8 172.2 170.3 167.6 168.5 177.2 180.5 179.1 180.5 184.1 187.4 188.6 187.6 183.1 178.8 184.5 Index number, c 37.7 67.4 85.8 91.2 82.4 73.4 88 4 94.3 91-2 84.4 68.3 68.3 62.9 56.4 60.9 71.4 72.2 53.8 56.4 60.3 64.6 65.2 74.2 81.6 87.5 70.5 72.5 89.8 100.0 95.5 84.7 81.9 88.1 88.1 76.2 55.2 31.7 13.0 7.7 0.0 2.6 27.2 36.5 32.6 36.5 46.7 56.1 59.5 56.7 •43.9 31.7 47.9 Per cent. •* 33.02 34.36 35.12 35. 47 34.58 34.09 34.72 35.02 34.62 34.13 33.38 33.55 33. 37 33.15 33.25 33.56 33.48 32. 73 32.77 33.02 33.09 32.79 33.13 33.16 33.24 31.83 31.80 32.51 32.60 32.33 31.54 31.16 31.25 31.20 30.31 29.15 28.12 27.54 27.51 27.18 27.37 28.70 28.88 28.34 28.42 28.63 28.42 28.32 27.79 27.36 26.72 27.33 Reverse Direct index index n u m b e r , c number.*? 72.0 87.3 96.0 100.0 | 89.8 84.2 91.4 94.9 90.3 84.7 76.1 •78.1 76.0 73.5 74.6 78.2 77.3 68.7 69.1 72.0 72.8 69.4 73.3 73.6 74.5 58.4 58.1 66.2 67.2 64.1 55.1 50.7 51.8 51.2 41.0 27.8 16.0 9.4 9.0 5.3 7.4 22.6 24.7 18.5 19.4 21.8 19.4 | 18.3 12.2 1 7.3 0.0 j 7.0 1 28.0 12.7 4.0 0.0 10.2 15.8 8.6 5.1 9.7 15.3 23.9 21.9 24.0 26.5 25.4 21.8 22.7 31.3 30.9 28.0 27.2 30.6 26.7 26.4 25.5 41.6 41.9 33.8 32.8 35.9 44.9 49.3 48.2 48.8 59.0 72.2 84.0 90.6 91.0 94.7 92.6 77.4 75.3 81.5 80.6 78.2 80.6 81.7 87.8 92.7 100.0 93.0 a These figures are based upon figures compiled for the National Monetary Commission from the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. b The schedule of months used throughout these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, such as 1893, in which January 1 falls upon Sunday. It is given as an aid to enable one to locate approximately the time in the year in which the different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, note (&). T?™. fimwoaMT1Mfata(i c In computing Index numbers the minimum weekly figure for each year is taken as 0, the maximum weekly figure is taken as 100, and the other figures are prorated. * or example, the minimum loans in 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth week), are represented by an index number of 0, the maximum loans, $414,600,000 (eighth week), are represented by an * > 7-^ J i \ ^ o /7 i. * /387 300 000 384 500 000\ Index number of 100, while the forty-seventh week is represented by an index number of 9.3, i. e. ( 4i4,60oOoo-384500 000/ X l ° ° ' Cf* P P * 1 3 ~ 1 5 a n d 2 2 ' d These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually ao when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. T A B L E 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City 249 clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued.a [ A m o u n t expressed i n millions of dollars.] 1898. Loans. N e t deposits. B a n k - n o t e circulation. Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves to deposits. M o n t h a n d week.& Amount. Jan.— Feb.— Mar.— 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. Apr.— 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. May— 18. 19. 20. 21. J u n e — 22. 23. 24. 25. J u l y — 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.—31. 32. 33. 34. Sept.—35. 36. 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40. 41. 42. 43 N o v . — 44. 45. 46. 47. D e c — 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 609. 611. 623. 625. 633. 639. 646. 641. 628. 617. 607. 600. 595. 587. 580. 572. 570. 571. 573. 581. 589. 601. 610. 610. 612. 621. 633. 639. 634. 636. 649. 659. 666. 672. 672. 665. 653. 642. 635. 636. 646. 657. 667. 678. 687. 693. 702. 708. 712. 718. Index n u m b e r . c\ 26.7 27.5 36.0 37.6 43.0 47.0 51.8 48.4 39.2 32.2 25.0 20.3 17.3 11.9 6.7 1.6 0.0 0 6 2.4 7.6 13.2 21.2 27.4 27.1 28.6 34.3 42.9 47.0 43.7 45.0 53.5 60.2 65.1 68.8 68.9 64.3 56.0 48.6 44.1 44.7 51.4 58.6 65.5 73.3 79.4 83.4 81.8 86.1 89.2 93.4 95.9 100.0 Index n u m b e r . c\ A m o u n t . 685.5 691.6 714.4 722.4 733.8 738.6 738.5 729.2 706.0 695.4 688.1 685.6 682.2 669.8 663.5 661.2 658.5 659.6 666.7 680.9 696.0 709.4 724.2 730.9 737.5 750.0 758.0 757.7 741.3 741.6 757.0 760.7 765.0 760.2 752.3 731.9 712.0 700.7 702.1 710.8 727.1 745.7 761.5 769.0 777.0 786.4 782.7 789.5 796.7 806.9 814.9 823.0 16.4 20.1 34.0 38.8 45.8 48.7 48.0 43.0 28.9 22.4 18.0 16.5 14.4 6.9 3.0 1.6 0.0 0.7 5.0 13.6 22.8 30.9 39.9 44.0 48.0 55.6 60.5 60.3 50.3 50.5 59.9 62.1 64.7 61.8 57.0 44.6 32.5 25.7 26.5 31.8 41.7 53.0 62.6 67.2 72.0 77.8 75.5 79.6 84.0 90.2 95.1 100.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.4 14.3 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.2 Index number. 66.7 48.2 29.6 25.9 22.2 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 7.4 11.1 18.5 29.6 33.3 37.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 29.6 25.9 22.2 18.5 18.5 18.5 14.8 11.1 14.8 25.9 44.4 63.0 63.0 63.0 66.7 66.7 70.4 74.1 81.5 96.3 100.0 96.3 96.3 92.6 92.6 Amount. 193.5 198.8 209.8 216.1 218.1 217.0 210.2 205.1 197.3 196.5 200.0 205.1 206.2 202.4 203.1 208.8 209.0 208.7 213.6 220.9 227.6 229.6 234.8 242.0 246.5 249.4 242.7 238.7 228.3 227.3 229.0 223.2 220.0 211.3 203.0 189.9 182.1 183.3 190.8 196.3 201.4 209.8 216.4 211.2 201.2 213.2 213.9 214.4 215.8 218.6 223.2 224.8 Index number, d Per cent. 16.9 24.8 41.2 50.5 53.5 51.9 41.8 34.2 22.6 21.4 26.6 34.2 35.8 30.2 31.2 39.7 40.0 39.5 46.8 57.7 67.6 70.6 78.3 89.0 95.7 100.0 90.0 84.1 68.5 67.2 69.7 61.1 56.3 43.4 31.1 11.6 0.0 1.8 12.9 21.0 28.7 41.2 51.0 43.2 40.3 46.2 47.3 48.0 50.1 54.2 61.1 63.4 28.24 28.74 29.37 29.92 29.73 29.37 28.46 28.14 27.94 28.25 29.08 29.92 30.21 30.22 30.62 31.58 31.75 31.65 32.04 32.44 32.71 32.35 32.41 33.10 33.43 33.26 32.03 31.50 30.79 30.64 30.26 29.34 28.76 27.80 27.00 25.96 25.58 26.17 27.17 27.63 27.70 28.13 28.42 27.46 26.92 27.16 27.33 27.13 27.09 27.09 27.40 27.32 Direct Reverse Index index n u m b e r . c\ n u m b e r . ^ 33.9 40.3 48.3 55.3 52.9 48.3 36.7 32.6 30.1 34.0 44.6 55.3 59.0 59.1 64.2 76.4 78.6 77.3 82.3 87.3 90.8 86.2 87.0 95.8 100.0 97.8 82.2 75.4 66.4 64.5 59.6 47.9 40.5 28.3 18.1 4.8 0.0 7.5 20.2 26.1 26.9 32.5 36.2 23.9 17.1 19.7 22.3 19.4 19.2 19.2 23.2 22.2 a T h e s e figures are based u p o n figures c o m p i l e d for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. & T h e s c h e d u l e of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t t h e s e t a b l e s , unless o t h e r w i s e specified, represents a y e a r , s u c h as 1893, i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is given as a n a i d t o e n a b l e o n e t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e y e a r i n w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c I n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s , t h e m i n i m u m w e e k l y figure for e a c h y e a r is t a k e n as 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n as 100, a n d t h e o t h e r figures a r e p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , are represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 ( e i g h t h w e e k ) , are represented b y / 3 8 7 300 flflO 384 ^00 000 \ a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, w h i l e t h e forty-seventh w e e k is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 9.3, i. e. ( ^ w p z ^ w p ) X100. Cf. p p . 13-15 a n d 22. d T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e e x a c t reverse of those i i t h e p r e c e d i n g c o l u m n . I n t h i s case t h e m a x i m u m figure for t h e year is represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m i n i m u m figure b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, a n d t h e o t h e r s are p r o r a t e d . T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s m a y b e considered as i n a sense indices of m o n e t a r y s t r i n g e n c y , rising as t h e y u s u a l l y d o w h e n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t t i g h t e n s a n d falling w h e n it becomes slack. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 250 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, inclusive—Continued.a 1890-1908, [ A m o u n t expressed i n millions of dollars.] 1899. B a n k - n o t e circulation. Net deposits. Loans. Keserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o d e p o s i t s . M o n t h a n d week. 6 Amount. Jan.- 1. 2.. 3.. 4.. Feb.- 5.. 6.. 7.. 8.. Mar.— 9 . 10.. 11.. 12.. Apr.- - 1 3 . . 14.. 15.. 16. 17. M a y - • 18.. 19. 20. 21. June—22. 23. 24.. 25.. July—26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.—31. 32. 33. 34. Sept.—35. 36. 37. Oct.— 40.. 41.. 42.. 43. Nov.—44. 45. 46. 47. D e c — 48. 49. 50. 51.. 52. 713. 716. 720. 726. 741. 750. 758. 771. 780. 777. 774. 779. 780. 778. 768. 760. 760. 776. 770. 763. 745. 746. 757. 773. 778. 786. 793. 776. 767. 759. 753. 746. 747. 756. 753. 747. 739. 721. 714. 710. 705. 700. 679. 676. 682. 681. 676. 673. 673. Index number, c 33.6 36.1 39,0 44.0 56.5 63.6 70.7 81.5 89.0 86.4 83.5 88.0 88.0 87.4 78.8 72.4 71.9 85.7 80.7 74.8 60.2 60.8 69.7 82.9 87.5 94.2 100.0 85.7 78.3 71.5 66.2 60.8 61.7 69.2 66.7 61.6 55.1 40.3 33.9 30.9 27.0 22.5 18.7 18.4 12.5 5.4 2.7 7.4 6.8 2.6 0.0 0.3 Amount. 826.8 835.8 849.0 861.6 880.0 888.0 897.1 910.5 914.8 906.6 898.8 902.2 898.9 894.9 888.5 884.3 883.5 899.6 901.5 902.3 889.7 890.0 897.8 907.7 909.0 905.1 902.1 886.9 874.8 862.1 849.9 849.9 851.2 858.1 849.7 834.4 819.3 798.5 785.3 781.1 774.9 768.3 761.6 755.8 744.8 736.8 737.9 748.0 744.0 739.5 740.3 740.0 Index number, c 50.6 55.6 63.0 70.1 80.4 84.9 90.1 97.6 100.0 95.4 91.0 92.9 91.1 88.8 85.2 82.9 82.4 91.5 92.5 93.0 85.9 86.1 90.4 96.0 96.7 94.5 92.9 84.3 77.5 70.4 63.5 63.5 64.3 68.1 63.4 55.0 46.3 34.7 27.2 24.9 21.4 17.7 13.9 10.7 4.5 0.0 0.6 6.3 4.0 1.5 2.0 1.8 Amount. 15.8 15.6 15.4 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.4 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.7 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.0 15.9 16.0 Index number, c 79.3 72.4 65.5 41.4 37.9 34.5 34.5 34.5 31.0 31.0 10.3 10.3 10.3 13.8 13.8 17.2 13.8 10.3 10.3 10.3 6.9 3.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.0 6.9 13.8 13.8 17.2 27.6 37.9 44.8 48.3 58.6 69.0 69.0 75.9 79.3 93.1 96.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 86.2 82.8 86.2 Amount. 230.2 237.2 246.9 254.6 257.4 257.5 258.6 257.9 253.2 249.8 243.8 244.1 240.2 238.7 241.5 245.2 246.4 244.2 252.5 260.2 266.3 265.2 263.7 256.9 252.9 240.5 230.6 232.4 230.7 226.3 220.5 226.8 227.8 226.9 221.6 211.0 205.1 202.6 198.0 195.9 194.9 193.5 193.4 188.6 183.4 183.8 191.1 195.5 192.8 191.9 195.4 196.1 Index number, c 56.5 64.9 76.6 85.9 89.3 89.4 90.7 89.9 84.2 80.1 72.9 73.2 68.5 66.7 70.1 74.5 76.0 73.3 83.4 92.6 100.0 98.7 96.9 88.7 83.8 68.9 56.9 59.1 57.1 51.7 44.8 52.4 53.6 52.5 46.1 33.3 26.2 23.2 17.6 15.1 13.9 12.2 12.1 6.3 0.0 0.5 9.3 14.6 11.3 10.3 14.5 15.3 Per cent. 27.84 28.37 29.08 29.55 29.24 28.99 28.83 28.32 27.67 27.54 27.13 27.04 26.71 26.67 27.18 27.73 27.87 27.18 28.00 28.83 29.93 29.78 29.37 28.29 27.82 26.56 25.56 26.19 26.36 26.25 25.95 26.69 26.76 26.43 26.08 25.29 25.03 25.36 25.21 25.07 25.14 25.17 25.39 24.95 24.62 24.95 25.88 26.13 25.91 25.94 26.39 26.51 Direct index number, c 60.7 70.7 84.0 92.9 87.0 82.3 79.3 69.7 57.5 55.1 47.3 45.7 39.5 38.7 48.3 58.6 61.3 48.3 63.7 79.3 100.0 97.2 89.5 69.2 60.3 36.6 17.8 29.7 32.9 30.8 25.2 39.1 40.4 34.2 27.6 12.8 7.9 14.1 11.3 10.5 14.6 6.4 0.0 6.4 23.9 28.6 24.4 25.0 33.4 35.7 I a T h e s e figures are based u p o n figures c o m p i l e d for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. & T h e schedule of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t t h e s e t a b l e s , unless o t h e r w i s e specified, represents a y e a r , s u c h as 1893, i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is g i v e n as a n a i d t o e n a b l e one t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e y e a r i n w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c I n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s t h e m i n i m u m w e e k l y figure for each year is t a k e n as 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n as 100, a n d t h e o t h e r figures a r e p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , are represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 ( e i g h t h w e e k ) , a r e represented b y a n 387 300 000 384 500 000 \ 414600000—384500000 / x l 0 0 # C *' PP* 1 3 ~ 1 5 a n ( * 22. d These i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e e x a c t reverse of those i n t h e preceding c o l u m n . I n t h i s case t h e m a x i m u m figure for t h e y e a r is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m i n i m u m figure b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, a n d t h e o t h e r s a r e p r o r a t e d . T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s m a y b e considered a s i n a sense indices of m o n e t a r y s t r i n g e n c y , rising as t h e y u s u a l l y d o w h e n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t t i g h t e n s a n d falling w h e n i t b e c o m e s slack. ( SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 251 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued.a [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1900. N e t deposits. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week. & Amount. 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 MB,T.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J U l y _ 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.— 4 4 . . 45 46 47 D e c — 48 49 50 51 52 '. .' 677.8 676.2 680.8 688.3 699.6 720.7 734.4 745.5 755.1 763.2 751.9 739.3 742.6 755.6 761.7 767.5 774.5 787.8 787.5 788.2 792.9 800.3 806.8 810.0 810.0 808.5 802.9 801.2 791.9 801.1 803.7 808.0 814.9 817.4 816.8 818.8 825.8 823.1 817.5 816.8 807.9 797.8 793.4 792.3 785.7 787.8 792.7 804.5 806.4 792.8 787.1 796.5 Index number, c Amount. 1.1 0.0 3.1 8.1 15.6 29.7 38.9 46.3 52.7 58.1 50.6 42.2 44.4 53.0 57.1 61.0 65.7 74.5 74.3 74.8 78.0 82.9 87.2 89.4 '89.4 88.4 84.6 83.5 77.3 84.1 85.2 88.0 92.7 94.3 93.9 95.3 100.0 98.1 94.4 93.9 88.0 81.2 78.3 77.6 73.1 74.5 77.8 85.7 87.0 77.9 74.1 80.4 748.9 749.2 765.5 780.5 795.9 814.7 821.0 826.8 829.9 829.4 814.0 800.1 807.8 822.4 834.3 842.6 852.0 869.1 867.2 868.6 876.6 887.9 893.7 895.7 890.9 888.2 881.8 883.4 882.1 887.8 894.4 897.4 894.3 901.3 903.4 906.2 907.3 897.4 884.7 877.2 861.5 846.4 843.3 841.7 831.0 839.6 851.3 864.4 861.0 842.6 838.8 854.1 Index number, c Amount. 0.0 0.2 10.5 19.9 29.7 41.5 45.5 49.2 51.1 50.8 41.1 32.3 37.2 46.4 53.9 59.2 65.2 75.9 74.7 75.6 80.6 87.8 91.4 92.7 89.7 87.9 83.9 84.9 84.1 87.7 91.9 93.8 91.8 96.2 97.5 99.3 100.0 93.8 85.7 81.0 71.1 61.6 59.6 58.6 51.8 57.3 64.7 72.9 • 70.8 59.2 56.8 66.4 16.2 16.3 16.2 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.9 18.5 18.9 18.8 19.2 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.3 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.4 24.2 25.2 26.6 27.4 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.0 Index number, c Amount. 0.0 0.7 0.0 2.7 4.1 5.4 6.8 11.5 15.5 18.2 17.6 20.3 26.4 29.1 32.4 34.5 33.1 33.8 34.5 36.5 38.5 41.9 44.6 45.3 45.9 46.6 46.6 48.7 54.1 60.8 70.3 75.7 79.7 83.1 85.8 87.2 89.2 90.5 91.9 93.9 94.6 95.9 96.6 98.0 98.0 97.3 97.3 97.3 97.3 98.0 99.3 100.0 199.0 204.0 215.5 224.4 229.8 231.5 229.2 226.3 221.1 213.0 206.2 205.8 211.7 213.5 219.5 225.5 230.0 233.2 232.1 233.7 237.9 242.1 241.8 241.4 238.2 238.9 236.0 240.8 244.6 249.4 252.7 252.4 244.1 249.2 252.9 252.6 247.6 240.9 234.1 225.5 219.8 214.5 216.8 216.3 212.3 217.5 225.1 226.9 220.9 216.9 219.1 225.0 Index number, c 0.0 9.3 30.6 47.1 57.1 60.3 56.0 50.7 41.0 26.0 13.4 12.6 23.6 26.9 38.0 49.2 57.5 63.5 61.4 64.4 72.2 80.0 79.4 78.7 72.7 74.0 68.7 77.6 84.6 93.5 99.6 99.1 83.7 93.1 100.0 99.4 90.2 77.7 65.1 49.2 38.6 28.8 33.0 32.1 24.7 34.3 48.4 51.8 40.6 33.2 37.3 48.2 Per cent. 1 26.56 27.22 28.15 28.75 28.87 28.41 27.92 27.37 26.63 25.68 25.32 25.71 26.20 25.96 26.30 26.76 26.99 26.83 26.76 26.89 27.12 27.26 27.05 26.94 26.73 26.89 26.76 27.25 27.73 28.09 28.25 28.12 27.29 27.64 27.99 27.87 27.29 26.83 26.46 25.71 25.51 25.34 25.71 25.68 25.55 25.90 26.43 26.24 25.65 25.74 26.13 26.34 Direct Reverse index index number, c number.^ 34.9 53.5 79.7 96.6 100.0 87.0 73.2 57.7 36.8 10.0 0.0 10.9 24.7 17.9 27.5 40.5 47.0 42.5 40.5 44.2 50.6 54.6 48.7 45.6 39.7 44.2 40.5 54.3 67.9 78.0 82.5 78.8 55.4 65.3 75.2 71.8 55.4 42.5 32.0 10.9 5.2 0.5 10.9 10.0 6.4 16.2 31.2 25.8 9.2 11.7 22.7 28.7 65.1 46.5 20.3 3.4 0.0 13.0 26.8 42.3 63.2 90.0 100.0 89.1 75.3 82.1 72.5 59.5 53.0 57.5 59.5 55.8 49.4 45.4 51.3 54.4 60.3 55.8 59.5 45.7 32.1 22.0 17.5 21.2 44.6 34.7 24.8 28.2 44.6 57.5 68.0 89.1 94.8 99.5 89.1 90.0 93.6 83.8 68.8 74.2 90.8 88.3 77.3 71.3 a These figures are based upon figures compiled for the National Monetary Commission from the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. b The schedule of months used throughout these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, such as 1893, in which January 1 falls upon Sunday. It is given as an aid to enable one to locate approximately the time in the year in which the different weeks fall. Cf. p. 13, note (&). cln computing index numbers, the minimum weekly figure for each year is taken as 0, the maximum weekly figure is taken as 100, and the other figures are prorated. For example, the minimum loans in 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth week), are represented by an index number of 0, the maximum loans, $414,600,000 (eighth week), are represented by /387 300 000 384 500 000 \ an index number of 100, while the forty-seventh week is represented by an index number of 9.3, i. e. ( jT^nn'QOO—38T500000 / X100. c f - PP- 13 -15 a n ^ 22. d These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually do when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 252 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans^ deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued.a [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1901. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. N e t deposits. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o deposits. Month and week. & Amount. 804.0 808.0 830.9 841.4 871.8 895.3 914. 6 911.8 914.2 918.8 914.8 910.8 Jan.— 1... 2... 3 — 4... Feb.— 5 . . . Mar.— 9.. 10.. 11.. 12.. Apr.—13.. 14.. 15.. 16.. 17.. May— 18.. 19.. 20.. 21.. June—22.. 23.. 24.. 25.. July— 26.. 27.. 28.. 29.. 30. Aug.—31. 32. 33. 34. Sept.—35. 36. 37. 39.. Oct.- • 40.. 41.. 42.. 43.. Nov.—44.. 45.. 46.. 47.. Dec.— 48.. 49.. 50.. 51.. 52.. Index number, c 916.9 1 904.4 891.0 882.1 884.4 890.4 897.7 873.5 858.9 866.3 887.6 900.9 902.8 892.4 889.5 868.5 856.2 j 867.7 878.5 886.5 884.8 887.8 895.2 885.1 872.3 865.9 867.6 873.6 870.9 874.9 884. 6 891.9 887.0 882.6 869.1 876.2 881.6 870.4 857.0 858.0 0.0 3.5 23.4 32.6 59.1 79.5 96.3 93.9 96.0 100.0 96.5 93.0 98.3 87.4 75.8 68.0 70.0 75.3 81.6 60.5 47.8 54.3 72.8 84.4 86.1 77.0 74.5 56.2 45.5 55.5 64.9 71.9 70.4 73.0 79.4 70.6 59.5 53.9 55.4 60.6 58.3 61.8 70.2 76.6 72.3 68.5 56.7 62.9 j 67.6 57.8 46.2 47.0 Amount. 870.9 885.3 921.7 937.4 969.9 994.5 1,011.3 1,009.1 1,012.5 1,011.9 1,006.1 1,000.4 1,004.2 985.7 969.2 967.2 970.7 973.1 977.4 951.6 941.1 952.3 972.1 984.1 982.8 971.3 965.2 947.5 939.1 942.9 955.9 965.3 964.6 968.1 968.1 947.6 931.4 930.3 936.4 943.5 942.6 945.1 954.4 958.0 950.4 946.0 932.9 940.6 938.9 923.1 904.0 910.8 Index n u m b e r . c\ A m o u n t . 0.0 10.2 35.9 47.0 69.9 87.3 99.2 97.6 100.0 99.6 95.5 91.5 94.1 81.1 69.4 68.0 70.5 72.2 75.2 57.0 49.6 57.5 71.5 79.9 79.0 70.9 66.6 54.1 48.2 50.8 60.0 66.7 66.2 68.6 68.6 54.2 42.7 41.9 46.3 51.3 50.6 52.4 59.0 61.5 56.1 53.0 43.8 49.2 48.0 36.9 23.4 28.2 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.2 31.3 31.2 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.4 31.4 31.3 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.1 j 31.0 ! 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.5 29.0 29.0 30.0 30.6 30.7 31.0 30.6 30.6 30.9 31.3 31.7 31.8 31.8 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.9 31.8 31.9 31.8 Index n u m b e r . c\ A m o u n t . 65.5 65.5 65.5 75.9 79.3 75.9 72.4 75.9 79.3 82.8 86.2 86.2 89.7 93.1 82.8 82.8 79.3 72.4 69.0 72.4 72.4 69.0 65.5 65.5 62.1 51.7 51.7 55.2 58.6 55.2 51.7 51.7 0.0 0.0 34.5 55.2 58.6 69.0 55.2 55.2 65.5 79.3 93.1 96.6 96.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 96.6 100.0 96.6 232.0 243.7 257.7 265.1 267.3 269.0 265.6 266.8 267.9 263.6 261.5 260.3 258.9 252.2 250.2 256.7 259.4 254.2 252.5 251.2 256.5 259.3 256.3 254.8 252.3 251.3 246.5 249.7 255.8 258.8 261.1 262.2 259.5 260.1 253.9 243.8 239.9 246.2 250.4 251.4 253.1 251.7 253.3 249.9 246.2 246.6 247.7 248.5 241.3 236.2 231.8 235.6 Index number, c 5.4 32.0 69.6 89.5 95.4 100.0 90.9 94.1 97.1 85.5 79.8 76.6 72.8 54.8 49.5 66.9 74.2 60.2 55.6 52.1 66.4 73.9 65.9 61.8 55.1 52.4 39.5 48.1 64.5 72.6 78.8 81.7 74.5 76.1 59.4 32.3 21.8 38.7 50.0 52.7 57.3 53.5 57.8 48.7 38.7 39.8 42.7 ! 44.9 25.5 11.8 0.0 10.2 Percent. Direct Reverse index index n u m b e r , c number.** 26.64 27.52 27.95 28.28 27.56 27.03 26.26 26.43 26.45 26.04 25.99 26.01 25.77 25.58 25.81 26.53 26.71 26.12 25.83 26.40 27.26 27.22 26.37 25.89 25.67 25.86 25.52 26.36 27.24 27.44 27.31 27.16 26.90 26.86 26.22 25.72 25.76 26.46 26.73 ! 26.64 26.84 26.63 26.53 26.08 25.89 26.06 26.54 26.41 25.69 25.58 25.63 25.86 40.6 72.5 88.1 100.0 73.9 54.7 26.9 33.0 33.8 18.9 17.1 17.8 9.1 2.3 10.6 36.6 43.2 21.8 11.3 31.9 63.1 61.6 30.9 13.5 5.5 12.4 0.0 30.5 62.3 69.6 64.9 59.5 50.0 48.6 25.3 7.2 8.8 34.1 43.9 40.6 47.9 40.3 36.6 20.4 13.5 19.6 37.0 32.3 6.2 2.3 4.0 12.4 59.4 27.5 11.9 0.0 26.1 45.3 73.1 67.0 66.2 81.1 82. & 82.2. 90.9 97.7 89.4 63.4 56.8 78.2 88.7 68.1 36.9 38.4 69.1 86.5 94.5 87.6 100.0 69.5 37.7 30.4 35.1 40.5 50.0 51.4 74.7 92.8 91.2 65.9 56.1 59.4 52.1 59.7 63.4 79.6 86.5 80.4 63.0 67.7 93.8 97.7 96.0 87.6 a These figures are based upon figures compiled for the National Monetary Commission from the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. 6 The schedule of months used throughout these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, such as 1893, in which January 1 falls upon Sunday. It is given as an aid to enable one to locate approximately the time in the year in which the different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, note (&). c In computing index numbers the minimum weekly figure for each year is taken as 0, the maximum weekly figure is taken as 100, and the other figures are prorated. For example, the minimum loans in 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth week), are represented by an index number of 0, the maximum loans, $414,600,000 (eigth week), are represented by an / 387,300,000-384,500.000\ index number of 100, while the forty-seventh week is represented by an index number of 9.3, i. e. (414 QQQ 000—384 500 000/ X 1 0 0 - Cf. pp. 13-15 and 22. d These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually do when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 253 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued. ° [ A m o u n t expressed i n millions of dollars.] 1902. N e t deposits. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week.& Amount. Jan.— 1. 2. 3. 4. F e b . — 5. 6. 7. 8. Mar.— 9. 10. 11. 12. Apr.—13. 14. 15. 16. 17. May— 18. 19. 20. 21. June—22. 23. 24. 25. J u l y — 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.—31. 32 33 34 Sept.—35. 36. 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40. 41. 42. 43. Nov.—44. 45. 46. 47. Dec.— 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 869.5 864.2 867.5 869.9 889.5 918.5 932.0 936.8 938.2 935.1 920.7 913.0 904.1 907.2 900.4 894.5 893.4 904.2 901.9 879.0 870.5 885.6 884.3 881.1 889.0 893.9 910.9 906.8 903.3 913.3 919.7 926.5 929.2 918.7 910.0 906.4 899.5 887.5 874.2 872.3 874.6 865.4 871.0 878.5 875.5 870.4 868.2 879.8 881.4 879.4 875.9 875.3 7.2 0.0 4.5 7.7 34.2 73.3 91.5 98.0 100.0 95.7 76.3 65.9 53.9 58.1 48.9 40.9 39.4 54.0 50.9 20.0 8.5 28.9 27.1 22.8 33.5 40.1 63.0 57.5 52.8 66.3 74.9 84.1 87.8 73.6 61.8 57.0 47.7 31.5 13.5 10.9 14.0 1.6 9.2 19.3 15.3 8.4 5.4 21.1 23.2 20.5 15.8 15.0 Index n u m b e r . c\ A m o u n t . Index n u m b e r . c\ Index n u m b e r . c\ 926.2 926.9 938.7 949.6 975.6 1,000.6 1,015.2 1,019.4 1,017.4 1,005.6 984.3 973.2 965.3 964.6 957.3 952.7 954.5 968.1 960.2 936.1 931.7 948.3 945.8 942.8 950.9 955.8 958.6 942.1 940.6 952.0 957.1 959.6 960.2 948.2 935.9 923.3 908.7 888.8 876.5 872.1 872.3 863.1 878.2 875.7 883.8 879.7 873.7 867.8 865.9 40.4 40.8 48.4 55.3 72.0 88.0 97.3 100.0 98.7 91.2 77.5 70.4 61.8 64.9 60.2 57.3 58.5 67.2 62.1 46.7 43.9 54.5 52.9 51.0 56.2 59.3 61.3 50.5 49.6 56.9 60.1 61.7 62.1 54.4 46.6 38.5 29.2 16.4 8.6 5.8 5.9 0.0 12.5 19.6 14.5 9.7 8.1 13.2 10.6 6.8 3.0 1.8 31.8 32.0 31.9 31.7 31.3 31.3 31.2 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.0 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.2 31.2 31.1 31.2 31.4 31.4 31.3 31.4 31.6 31.7 31.8 31.9 32.1 31.8 32.1 32.4 32.9 33.5 34.2 34.7 35.0 35.6 36.0 37.8 40.1 42.0 43.8 44.6 45.3 45.4 45.5 45.5 45.6 45.6 e.i 7.5 6.8 5.4 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.0 1.4 2.0 3.4 3.4 2.7 3.4 4.8 5.4 6.1 6.8 8.2 6.1 8.2 10.2 13.6 17.7 22.4 25.8 27.9 32.0 34.7 46.9 62.6 75.5 87.8 93.2 98.0 98.6 99.3 99.3 100.0 100.0 239.0 244.7 253.7 262.7 270.6 268.0 267.3 267.3 264.3 255.3 249.2 246.7 248.3 243.8 243.9 244.7 248.0 249.5 243.5 242.3 247.2 249.0 247.7 249.0 249.8 251.9 249.7 247.7 250.8 253.5 253.0 248.9 247.1 246.8 243.7 234.9 227.9 220.5 222.3 219.8 219.6 221.3 238.4 244.7 239.3 237.8 238.4 236.7 229.9 226.8 225.0 223.0 Index number, c 38.0 49.2 66.9 84.5 100.0 94.9 93.5 93.5 87.6 70.0 58.0 53.1 56.3 47.5 47.7 49.2 55.7 58.6 46.9 44.5 54.1 57.6 55.1 57.6 59.2 63.3 59.0 55.1 61.2 66.5 65.5 57.5 53.9 53.3 47.3 30.0 16.3 1.8 5.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 36.9 49.2 38.6 35.7 36.9 33.5 20.2 14.1 10.6 6.7 cent. 25.80 26.39 27.02 27.66 27.72 26.78 26.33 26.21 25.97 25.39 25.31 25.34 25.71 25.27 25.47 Direct Reverse index index n u m b e r , c number.** 34.0 54.2 75.9 97.9 100.0 67.7 52.2 48.1 39.8 19.8 17.1 18.1 30.9 15.7 22.6 25.68 25.98 25.77 29.8 25.35 18.5 36.7 25.88 26.53 26.25 26.18 26.40 26.27 40.1 32.9 59.1 49.4 47.0 54.6 50.1 26.35 26.04 52.9 42.2 26.29 26.66 50.8 63.5 61.8 55.6 26.61 26.43 25.92 25.74 26.02 26.03 25.43 25.07 24.81 25.36 25.20 25.17 25.64 27.00 27.37 27.00 27.08 27.22 26.78 26.15 38.1 33.3 41.5 41.9 21.2 8.8 0.0 18.8 13.3 12.3 28.4 75.2 88.0 75.2 78.0 82.8 67.7 46.0 39.1 25.95 25.92 ?8.1 25.75 32.2 66.0 45.8 24.1 2.1 0.0 32.3 47.8 51.9 60.2 80.2 82.9 81.9 69.1 84.3 77.4 70.2 59.9 67.1 81.5 63.3 40.9 50.6 53.0 45.4 49.9 47.1 57.8 49.2 36.5 38.2 44.4^ 61.9 66.7 58.5 58.1 78.8 91.2 100.0 81.2 86.7 87.7 71.6 24.8 12.0 24.8 22.0 17.2 32.3 54.0 60.9 61.9 67.8 a T h e s e figures are based u p o n figures c o m p i l e d for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y C o m m i s s i o n from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. b T h e schedule of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t t h e s e tables, unless o t h e r w i s e specified, represents a year, s u c h as 1893, i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is g i v e n as a n aid t o e n a b l e o n e t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e y e a r i n w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c l n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s , t h e m i n i m u m w e e k l y figure for each y e a r is t a k e n as 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n as 100, a n d t h e other figures are p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , are r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 ( e i g h t h w e e k ) , are r e p r e s e n t e d b y / 3 8 7 300 000 384 500 000 \ a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, w h i l e t h e forty-seventh w e e k is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 9.3, i. e. ( 4i4 Z 6Wooo-384 > 50oWo ) X100. Cf. p p . 13-15 a n d 22. d T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e e x a c t reverse of those i n t h e p r e c e d i n g c o l u m n . I n t h i s case t h e m a x i m u m figure for t h e year is represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m i n i m u m figure b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, a n d t h e o t h e r s a r e p r o r a t e d . T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s m a y b e considered as i n a sense indices of m o n e t a r y s t r i n g e n c y , rising a s t h e y u s u a l l y d o w h e n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t t i g h t e n s a n d falling w h e n i t becomes slack. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 254 T A B L E 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, posits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908y inclusive—Continued.a [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.] 1903. Loans. N e t deposits. B a n k - n o t e circulation. Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o d e p o s i t s . M o n t h a n d week.fr Amount. Jan.— 1 o 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 j u n e _ 22 23 24 25 J U l y _ 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.—40 41 42 43 Nov.— 44 45 46 47 D e c — 48 49 50 51 52 . . 871.6 886.1 890.4 904.5 925.0 936.2 950.2 950.2 939.6 924.5 911.5 904.6 904.0 902.8 905.2 900.6 914.1 923.1 928.9 923.5 923.0 915.1 903.4 904.8 913.7 917.4 909.5 907.0 907.9 908.9 912.7 908.3 917.9 923.1 924.4 926.6 922.1 917.0 912.9 913.1 908.3 907.1 911.5 900.1 889.9 887.2 880.8 882.0 880.9 878.7 892.3 908.6 Index n u m b e r .c 0.0 18.4 23.9 41.8 67.8 82.0 100.0 100.0 86.4 67.2 50.7 41.9 41.1 39.6 42.7 36.8 54.0 65.4 72.8 65.9 65.3 55.2 40.4 42.2 53.5 58.2 48.1 45.0 46.1 47.4 52.2 46.6 58.8 65.4 67.1 69.9 64.1 57.7 52.5 52.7 46.6 45.1 50.7 36.2 23.2 19.8 11.7 13.2 11.8 9.0 26.3 47.1 Amount. 873.6 901.1 912.8 931.7 940.1 952.3 963.2 956.2 936.6 916.1 900.6 894.2 888.7 884.8 887.2 887.6 905.7 915.8 920.8 914.6 913.0 898.6 886.8 889.7 903.7 903.8 892.1 895.2 902.3 909.8 912.2 903.3 913.7 920.1 918.1 918.1 909.4 901.3 897.2 897.6 891.7 889.7 885.6 868.0 853.4 847.3 841.5 842.9 842.8 848.2 865.9 886.2 Index number.c 26.4 49.0 58.6 74.1 81.0 91.0 100.0 94.2 78.1 61.3 48.6 43.3 38.8 35.6 37.6 37.9 52.8 61.1 65.2 60.1 58.8 46.9 37.2 39.6 51.1 51.2 41.6 44.1 50.0 56.1 58.1 50.8 59.3 64.6 62.9 62.9 55.8 49.1 45.8 46.1 41.2 39.6 36.2 21.8 9.8 4.8 0.0 1.2 1.1 5.5 20.0 36.7 Amount. 45.6 45.5 45.4 45.1 44.1 43.7 43.1 43.2 42.9 42.9 42.8 42.9 42.9 43.1 43.4 43.5 43.5 43.9 44.2 44.2 44.1 44.1 44.0 44.0 44.0 43.9 43.9 43.9 43.8 43.8 43.9 43.9 43.9 43.9 43.8 44.7 45.3 45.6 45.6 45.7 45.7 45.8 45.8 45.8 45.9 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.1 46.0 45.3 45.0 Index number.c 84.8 81.8 78.8 69.7 39.4 27.3 9.1 12.1 3.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 9.1 18.2 21.2 21.2 33.3 42.4 42.4 39.4 39.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 33.3 33.3 33.3 30.3 30.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 30.3 57.6 75.8 84.8 84.8 87.9 87.9 90.9 90.9 90.9 93.9 97.0 97.0 97.0 100.0 • 97.0 75.8 66.7 Amount. 233.2 245.4 254.6 260.8 253.5 253.6 249.8 245.0 234.8 230.0 228.3 229.8 224.3 224.9 227.8 232.8 237.6 238.9 239.2 237.8 237.9 229.4 231.1 232.5 238.8 234.3 231.0 237.0 244.5 251.5 249.6 247.3 249.5 250.7 246.8 244.9 240.5 239.9 238.2 240.9 240.3 240.3 231.6 222.4 219.4 215.7 216.5 217.0 218.7 226.0 229.0 231.1 Index number.c 38.8 65.9 86.3 100.0 83.8 84.0 75.6 65.0 42.4 31.7 27.9 31.3 19.1 20.4 26.8 37.9 48.6 51.4 52.1 49.0 49.2 30.4 34.1 37.3 51.2 41.2 33.9 47.2 63.9 79.4 75.2 70.1 74.9 77.6 69.0 64.7 55.0 53.7 49.9 55.9 54.5 54.5 35.3 14.9 8.2 0.0 1.8 2.9 6.7 22.8 29.5 34.1 Per cent. 26.69 27.23 27.88 27.98 26.96 26.63 25.92 25.61 25.06 25.10 25.34 25.68 25.23 25.41 25.67 26.23 26.22 26.08 25.97 26.01 26.06 25.53 26.06 26.12 26.42 25.94 25.89 26.47 27.08 27.63 27.35 27.37 27.31 27.23 26.88 26.66 26.44 26.60 26.54 26.83 26.95 27.00 26.16 25.61 - 25.71 * 25.46 25.71 25.74 25.95 26.64 26.45 26.07 Direct Reverse index index number.c number.^ 55.9 74.3 96.6 100.0 65.1 53.8 29.5 18.2 0.0 1.5 9.7 21.3 5.9 12.1 21.0 40.1 39.8 35.0 31.3 32.6 34.3 16.2 34.3 36.4 46.6 30.2 28.5 48.4 69.2 88.0 78.5 79.1 77.1 74.3 62.4 54.9 47.3 52.8 50.8 60.7 64.8 66.5 37.8 18.9 22.3 13.8 22.4 23.4 30.6 54.2 47.7 34.6 44.1 25.7 3.4 0.0 34.9 46.2 70.5 81.8 100.0 98.5 90.3 78.7 94.1 87.9 79.0 59.9 60.2 65. a 68.7 67.4 65.7 83.8 65.7 63.6 53.4 69.8 71.5 51.6 30. & 12.0 21.5 20.9 22.9 25.7 37.6 45.1 52.7 47.2 49.2 39.3 35.2 33.5 62.2 81.1 77.7 86.2 77.6 76.6 69.4 45.8 52.3 65.4 a These figures are based upon figures compiled for the National Monetary Commission from the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. b The schedule of months used throughout these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, such as 1893, in which January 1 falls upon Sunday. It is given as an aid to enable one to locate approximately the time in the year in which the different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, note (&). cln computing index numbers, the minimum weekly figure for each year is taken as 0, the maximum weekly figure is taken as 100, and the other figures are prorated. For example, the minimum loans in 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth week), are represented by an index number of 0, the maximum loans, $414,600,000 (eighth week), are represented b y ' , ' , , , /387,300,000-384,500,000\ an index number of 100, while the forty-seventh week is represented by an index number of 9.3, i. e. ( ^ ^ ~ f l T b ^ ^ 8 T 5 W W 6 / X 100 - Cf - PP- 1 3 ~ 1 5 a n d 2 2 d These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually d a when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 255 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive—Continued.a [ A m o u n t expressed i n millions of dollars.] 1904. N e t deposits. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves to deposits. M o n t h a n d week.& Amount. Jan.— 1. 2. 3. 4. Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 1G 17 May— 18. 19. 20. 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J u l y - 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.— 31 32 33 34 Sept.—35. 36. 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40. 41. 42. 43. Nov.— 44 45 46 47 D e c — 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 916.0 934.4 965.1 994.6 998.9 999.6 994.4 990.2 999.9 997.4 998.9 007.9 022.7 ,038.5 ,043.3 ,046.4 ,049.6 071.0 ,078.9 056.6 ,040.5 ,036.6 ,042.1 049.7 066.8 075.0 078.3 087.5 ,099.8 097.3 095.5 ,096.5 099.2 099.1 117.2 130.5 .141.0 138.5 143.0 146.0 134.0 138.0 142.3 139.9 125.1 112.7 102.4 090. 6 082.1 060.1 057.4 066.7 Index n u m b e r . c\ A m o u n t . 0.0 8.0 21.4 34.2 36.1 36.4 34.1 32.3 36.5 35.4 36.1 40.0 46.4 53.3 55.4 56.7 58.1 67.4 70.9 61.2 54.2 52.5 54.9 58.2 65.6 69.2 70.6 74.6 80.0 78.9 78.1 78.5 79.7 68.0 87.5 93.3 97.9 96.8 98.7 100.0 94.8 96.6 98.4 97.4 91.0 85.6 81.1 76.0 72.3 62.7 61.5 65.6 905.7 941.2 986.3 1,023.9 1,027.1 1,026.3 1,028.0 1,027.9 1,040.5 1,037.2 1,037.0 1,048.6 1,069.3 1,085.5 1,097.1 1,109.3 1,114.3 1,131.7 1,129.6 1,100.5 1,098.9 1,098.7 1,109.2 1,122.0 1,143.3 1,152.9 1,158.1 1,179.1 1,201.4 1,204.9 1,204.2 1,207.1 1,209.5 1,207.3 1,217.0 1,221.7 1,224.2 1,214.0 1,212.7 1,205.2 1,193.2 1,199.7 1,204.4 1,196.1 1,176.0 1,159.8 1,144.2 1,127.8 1,118.0 1,096.1 1,094.1 1,104.0 Index n u m b e r . c| A m o u n t . 0.0 11.1 25.3 37.1 38.1 37.9 38.4 38.4 42.3 41.3 41.2 44.9 51.4 56.5 60.1 63.9 65.5 71.0 70.3 61.2 60.7 60.6 63.9 67.9 74.6 77.6 79.2 85.8 92.8 93.9 93.7 94.6 95.4 94.7 97.7 99.2 100.0 96.8 96.4 94.0 90.3 92.3 93.8 91.2 84.9 79.8 74.9 69.7 66.7 59.8 59.2 62.3 44.6 43.7 43.1 42.7 41.5 40.7 40.5 40.2 39.1 37.9 36.9 36.9 36.8 35.6 35.3 35.7 35.7 35.7 36.0 36.4 37.0 37.2 38.0 38.7 38.9 39.2 39.1 39.1 39.1 38.9 38.6 38.2 37.6 37.7 38.9 40.0 40.1 40.7 40.5 41.7 42.2 42.9 43.2 42.5 42.3 42.1 42.1 42.1 42.5 42.7 42.8 43.1 Index Amount. n u m b e r , cl 100.0 90.3 83.9 79.6 66.7 58.1 55.9 52.7 40.9 28.0 17.2 17.2 16.1 3.2 0.0 4.3 4.3 4.3 7.5 11.8 18.3 20.4 29.0 36.6 38.7 41.9 40.9 40.9 40.9 38.7 35.5 31.2 24.7 25.8 38.7 50.5 51.6 58.1 55.9 68.8 74.2 81.7 84.9 77.4 75.3 73.1 73.1 73.1 77.4 79.6 80.6 83.9 241.1 258.4 272.6 281.1 278.6 276.9 284.5 289.1 290.0 289.2 286.5 289.6 295.0 294.2 301.5 311.5 311.7 305.6 295.2 288.1 304.4 306.4 312.8 319.3 324.2 324.3 325.5 339.3 350.9 357.2 357.3 359.5 361.0 359.2 351.7 343.8 335.4 329.7 323.1 313.9 314.2 317.8 317.9 309.1 302.9 299.5 294.4 290.5 288.8 288.5 288.7 289.6 Index n u m b e r , cl P e r c e n t . 0.0 14.4 26.3 33.4 31.3 29.9 36.2 40.0 40.8 40.1 37.9 40.5 45.0 44.3 50.4 58.7 58.9 53.8 45.1 39.2 52.8 54.5 59.8 65.2 69.3 69.4 70.4 81.9 91.6 96.8 96.9 98.8 100.6 98.5 92.2 85.7 78.7 73.9 68.4 60.7 61.0 64.0 64.1 56.7 51.5 48.7 44.5 41.2 39.8 39.5 39.7 40.5 26.61 27.45 27.64 27.44 27.12 26.96 27.66 28.12 i 27.87 27.87 27.62 27.61 27.58 27.10 27.47 28.07 27.96 27.00 26.12 26.18 27.69 27.88 28.20 28.45 28.35 28.13 28.11 28.77 29.20 29.64 29.67 29.77 29.84 29.75 28.89 28.14 27.39 27.15 26.63 26.04 26.33 26.48 26.39 25.84 25.75 25.82 25.72 25.75 25.82 26.32 26.39 26.23 Reverse Direct index index number, c number.d 21.5 41.9 46.5 41.7 33.9 30.0 47.0 ' 58.2 52.1 52.1 46.1 45.8 45.1 33.4 42.4 57.0 54.3 31.0 9.6 11.1 47.8 52.4 60.1 66.2 63.8 58.4 58.0 74.0 84.4 95.1 95.9 98.3 100.0 97.8 76.9 58.7 40.5 34.6 22.0 1 7.7 1 14.7 18.4 16.2 2.8 0.6 2.3 0.0 0.6 2.3 14.5 16.2 12.3 1 78.5 58.1 53.5 58.3 66.1 70.0 53.0 41.8 47.9 47.9 53.9 54.2 54.9 66.6 57.6 43.0 45.7 69.0 90.4 88.9 52.2 47.6 39.9 33.8 36.2 41.6 42.0 26.0 15.6 4.9 4.1 1.7 0.0 2.2 23.1 41.3 59.5 65.4 78.0 92.3 85.3 81.6 83.8 97.2 99.4 97.7 100.0 99.4 97.7 85.5 83.8 87.7 i a T h e s e figures are based u p o n figures c o m p i l e d for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. & T h e schedule of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t these t a b l e s , unless otherwise specified, represents a year, s u c h as 1893, in w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is g i v e n as a n aid t o e n a b l e one to locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e year in w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c l n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s , t h e m i n i m u m w e e k l y figure for each year is t a k e n as 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n as 100, a n d t h e other figures are p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , are represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 (eighth w e e k ) , are represented b y /387 300 000 384 500 000 \ a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, w h i l e t h e forty-seventh w e e k is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 9.3, i. e. ( . i / ^ ^ n o o / Z ' Z ) X100. Cf. p p . 13-15 a n d 22. \414,DuU,U0U—oo4,500,0U0/ d These i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e e x a c t reverse of those in t h e preceding c o l u m n . I n this case t h e m a x i m u m figure for t h e year is represented b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m i n i m u m figure b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, a n d t h e others are p r o r a t e d . T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s m a y be considered as i n a sense indices of m o n e t a r y s t r i n g e n c y , rising as t h e y u s u a l l y do w h e n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t t i g h t e n s a n d falling w h e n i t becomes slack. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 256 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New inclusive—Continued. ° York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908 [ A m o u n t expressed i n millions of dollars.] 1905. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. N e t deposits. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week.& Amount. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20. 21. J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.— 31 32 33 34 Sept.—35. 36. 37. 38. 39. Oct.—40.. 41. 42. 43. Nov.—44. 45. 46. 47. Dec—48. 49. 50. 51. 52. 069.7 064.3 098.8 115.6 128.1 142.1 136.0 121.3 134.4 132.9 127.7 109.7 099.3 090.8 099.6 107.3 097.9 092.1 099.7 120.4 111.0 101.3 089.5 104.9 102.8 120.9 116.5 107.3 126.4 144.8 146.2 139.9 146.1 144.6 136.9 106.7 085.8 076.4 071.6 059.7 030.3 026.7 041.8 058.3 044.3 017.1 012.3 023.9 016.3 004.6 006.1 001.0 Index number, c 47.3 43.6 67.4 79.0 87.6 97.2 93.0 82.9 91.9 90.9 87.3 74.9 67.7 61.9 67.9 73.2 66.8 62.8 68.0 82.3 75.8 69.1 61.0 71.6 70.1 82.6 79.6 67.3 86.4 99.1 100.0 95.7 100.0 98.9 93.6 72.8 58.4 52.0 48.6 40.4 20.2 17.7 28.1 39.5 29.8 11.1 7.8 15.8 10.5 2.5 3.5 0.0 Amount. 109.1 119.1 163.8 189.9 196.9 202.9 192.5 179.8 189.9 187.6 174.4 150.6 138.6 128.1 139.7 151.9 146.5 143.8 150.2 165.1 155.1 136.4 123.8 140.2 146.7 166.0 158.3 159.0 177.3 199.7 197.1 186.6 188.5 181.0 166.5 125.4 096.3 083.1 080.4 059.2 026.1 023.8 042.0 052.7 028.3 999.0 999.1 1,007.1 992.2 983.8 985.0 977.6 Index number, c Amount. Index number, c 43.1 43.0 42.9 42.8 42.8 43.0 42.8 42.8 42.8 42.8 42.8 43.0 43.7 44.1 44.4 44.4 44.1 44.5 44.6 45.3 45.8 46.2 46.5 47.3 48.0 48.5 48.8 49.1 48.9 48.8 49.4 50.4 51.5 52.3 53.0 53.7 53.6 53.7 54.0 54.1 54.1 54.6 54.8 54.3 54.3 54.6 54.6 54.0 53.2 53.0 53.0 53.0 58.4 62.8 82.6 94.2 97.3 100.0 95.4 89.7 94.2 93.2 87.3 76.8 71.5 66.8 72.0 77.4 75.0 73.8 76.6 83.2 78.8 70.5 64.9 72.2 75.1 83.6 80.7 80.5 88.6 98.6 97.4 92.8 93.6 90.3 83.8 65.6 52.7 46.8 45.6 36.2 21.5 20.5 28.6 33.3 22.5 9.5 9.5 13.1 6.5 2.8 3.3 0.0 Amount. 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0' 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 7.5 10.8 13.3 13.3 10.8 14.2 15.0 20.8 25.0 28.3 30/8 37.5 43.3 47.5 50.0 52.5 50.8 50.0 55.0 63.3 72.5 79.2 85.0 90.8 90.0 90.8 93.3 94.2 94.2 98.3 100.0 95.8 95.8 98.3 98.3 93.3 86.7 85.0 85.0 85.0 288.9 304.1 314.6 324.4 319.0 311.7 307.2 309.5 305.8 306.1 298.7 294.1 293.3 290.7 294.2 299.4 303.2 304.7 304.2 299.5 300.2 290.1 290.6 292.2 301.7 303.1 297.5 309.2 309.2 315.2 311.4 309.4 306.3 304.2 297.1 286.1 278.7 276.0 277.5 269.1 266.6 268.4 272.8 265.4 254.5 252.6 258.8 254.3 246.7 249.9 250.4 248.6 Index n u m b e r , c] P e r c e n t . 54.3 73.9 87.4 100.0 93.1 83.7 77.9 80.8 76.1 76.5 66.9 61.0 60.0 56.6 61.1 67.8 72.7 74.6 74.0 68.0 68.9 55.9 56.5 58.6 70.8 72.6 65.4 80.4 80.4 88.2 83.3 80.7 76.7 74.0 64.9 50.7 41.2 37.7 39.6 28.8 25.6 27.9 33.6 24.1 10.0 7.6 15.6 9.8 0.0 4.1 4.8 2.4 26.04 27.18 27.03 27.24 26.65 25.91 25.76 26.25 25.69 27.77 25.43 25.56 25.76 25.76 25.81 25.99 26.44 26.62 26.44 25.69 25.99 25.53 25.87 25.62 26.31 25.99 25.68 26.68 26.26 26.27 26.01 26.07 25.78 25.76 25.46 25.42 25.42 25.47 25.67 25.40 25.98 26.22 26.18 25.22 24.75 25.28 25.91 25.24 24.86 25.39 25.41 25.43 Direct j R e v e r s e index index number, c number.d 42.7 80.5 75.5 82.5 62.9 38.4 33.4 49.7 31.2 100.0 22.5 26.8 33.4 33.5 35.1 41.1 56.0 61.9 56.0 31.2 41.1 25.9 37.1 28.8 51.7 41.1 30.8 63.9 50.0 50.3 41.7 43.7 34.1 33.5 23.5 22.2 22.2 23.9 30.5 21.6 40.8 48.7 47.4 15.6 | 0.0 17.6 38.4 16.3 3.7 21.2 21.9 22.5 57.3 19.5 24.5 17.5 37.1 61.6 66.6 50.3 68.8 0.0 77.5 73.2 66.6 66.5 64.9 58.9 44.0 38.1 44.0 68.8 58.9 74.1 62.9 71.2 48.3 58.9 69.2 36.1 50.0 49.7 58.3 56.3 65.9 66.5 76.5 77.8 77.8 76.1 69.5 78.4 59.2 51.3 52.6 84.4 100.0 82.4 61.6 83.7 96.3 78.8 78.1 77.5 « These figures are based u p o n figures c o m p i l e d for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. *> T h e schedule of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t t h e s e t a b l e s , unless otherwise specified, r e p r e s e n t s a y e a r , s u c h as 1893, i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is g i v e n as a n aid t o e n a b l e one t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e y e a r i n w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13 n o t e (&). c l n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s , t h e m i n i m u m w e e k l y figure for each year is t a k e n as 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n as 100, a n d t h e o t h e r figures are p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , are r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 ( e i g h t h w e e k ) , a r e r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, w h i l e t h e forty-seventh w e e k is r e p r e s e n t e d "by a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 9.3, i. e. ( ' ' — '' '' ) X100. Cf. p p . 13-15 a n d 22. \4I4,D(J0,U0U—oo4,ouU,0UU/ d T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e e x a c t reverse of t h o s e i n t h e p r e c e d i n g c o l u m n . I n t h i s case t h e m a x i m u m figure for t h e y e a r is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m i n i m u m figure b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, a n d t h e o t h e r s are p r o r a t e d . T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s m a y b e considered as i n a s e n s e i n d i c e s of m o n e t a r y s t r i n g e n c y , r i s i n g as t h e y u s u a l l y d o w h e n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t t i g h t e n s a n d falling w h e n i t becomes slack. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 257 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive a—Continued. [ A m o u n t expressed in millions of dollars.] 1906. N e t deposits. Loans. B a n k - n o t e circulation. Reserves (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week.b Index number.c 1,004.7 1,005.0 1,025.6 1,041.1 1,057.4 1,062.0 1,052.4 1,049.3 1,040.8 1,019.6 1,025.4 1,029.3 1,025.5 1,032.7 1,009.3 1,017.4 1,039.2 1,042.1 1,025.7 1,040.7 1,049.4 1,051.5 1,059.2 1,060.1 1,057.8 1,056.9 1,050.6 1,036.2 1,045.7 1,058.4 1,077.2 1,072.5 1,067.3 1,071.1 1,063.7 1,051.8 1,036.5 1,043.9 1,051.2 1,052.3 1,065.7 1,082.4 1,062.3 1,052.8 1,045.5 1,039.4 1,043.5 1,048.5 1,044.7 1,027.7 1,027.2 1,033.0 Jan.— Feb.— Mar.— 9. 10. 11.. 12. Apr.- - 1 3 . 14. 15. 16. 17. May- •18.. 19.. 20.. 21.. June—22 . 23.. 24.. 25.. July— 2 6 . . 27.. 28.. 29.. 30.. Aug.—31 . 32. 33. 34. Sept.—35.. 36.. 37.. 38.. 39.. Oct.— 40 . 41. 42.. 43.. Nov.—44.. 45.. 46.. 47.. Dec—48.. 49.. 50 .. 51.. 52.. 0.0 0.4 27.0 47.0 68.0 73.9 61.5 57.5 46.6 19.2 26.7 31.7 26.8 36.1 59.3 16.4 44.5 48.2 27.1 46.4 57.7 60.4 70.3 71.5 68.5 67.3 59.2 40.6 52.9 69.3 93.5 87.5 80.8 85.7 76.1 60.6 41.0 50.6 60.0 61.4 78.7 100.0 74.3 62.0 52.6 44.8 50.1 56.5 51.6 29.7 29.0 36.5 Amount. 983.7 997.2 1,029.3 1,047.1 1,061.4 1,060.9 1,048.6 1,042.2 1,029.5 1,001.9 1,008.8 1,013.0 1,004.2 1,003.4 981.8 1,007.4 1,028.6 1,027.2 1,014.5 1,026.8 1,032.7 1,036.7 1,047.1 1,048.1 1,049.4 1,049.6 1,036.3 1,023.9 1,044.7 1,060.1 1,076.5 1,062.9 1,053.7 1,053.8 1,042.0 1,014.2 1,005.4 1,023.2 1,034.0 1,031.3 1,050.7 1,062.3 1,034.6 1,015.8 998.7 994.4 997.9 998.6 982.1 967.0 971.6 981.3 Index number.c Index number.c 15.3 27.6 56.9 73.2 86.2 85.8 74.5 68.7 57.1 31.9 38.2 42.0 34.0 33.2 13.5 36.9 56.3 55.0 43.4 54.6 60.0 63.7 73.2 74.1 75.3 75.4 63.3 52.0 71.0 85.0 100.0 87.6 79.2 79.3 68.5 43.1 35.1 51.3 61.2 58.7 76.4 87.0 61.7 44.6 29.0 25.0 28.2 28.9 13.8 0.0 4.2 13.1 52.9 52.9 52.6 52.2 51.9 51.4 50.9 50.7 50.9 51.4 50.9 51.3 51.8 51.7 51.4 51.4 51.1 50.8 50.3 50.0 49.8 49.7 48.9 48.4 48.4 48.3 48.4 48.5 47.9 47.0 46.5 46.0 46.0 46.1 46.0 44.9 44.8 45.1 45.5 45.7 46.1 46.4 46.7 49.0 50.5 51.3 52.2 53.3 53.7 53.5 53.5 53.6 91.0 91.0 87.6 83.1 79.8 74.2 68.5 66.3 68.5 74.2 68.5 73.0 78.6 77.5 74.2 74.2 70.8 67.4 61.8 58.4 56.2 55.1 46.1 40.4 40.4 39.3 40.4 41.6 34.8 24.7 19.1 13.5 13.5 14.6 13.5 1.1 0.0 3.4 7.9 10.1 14.6 18.0 21.3 47.2 64.0 73.0 83.1 95.5 100.0 97.8 97.8 Amount. 246.5 262.1 274.1 277.6 276.4 271.1 267.9 265.7 262.3 256.9 258.0 259.6 256.2 248.2 250.2 268.2 267.5 262.7 266.5 266.8 264.8 266.0 268.9 269.1 273.2 274.4 265.5 268.8 280.5 283.9 283.2 273.9 270.5 267.7 263.3 246.9 254.9 267.1 271.0 267.2 275.7 271.7 264.3 257.0 248.1 250.9 253.8 251.1 238.8 240.0 246.1 250.6 Index number.c 17.1 51.7 78.3 86.0 83.4 71.6 64.5 59.6 52.1 40.1 42.6 46.1 38.6 20.8 25.3 65.2 63.6 53.0 61.4 62.1 57.7 60.3 66.7 67.2 76.3 78.9 59.2 66.5 92.5 100.0 98.5 77.8 70.3 64.1 54.3 18.0 35.7 62.7 71.4 63.0 81.8 73.0 56.5 40.4 20.6 26.8 33.3 27.3 0.0 26.6 16.2 26.2 Per cent. 25.05 26.28 26.62 26.49 26.04 25.55 25.56 25.49 25.48 25.64 25.57 25.62 25.50 24.73 25.46 26.61 26.00 25.56 26.26 25.97 25.64 25.65 25.68 25.67 26.03 26.14 25.62 26.25 26.84 26.78 26.30 25.77 25.66 25.41 25.27 24.34 25.34 26.10 26.20 25.90 26.23 25.57 25.54 25.29 24.84 25.23 25.44 25.14 24.31 24.82 25.32 25.55 Direct Reverse index index n u m b e r . c number.** 29.3 77.9 91.3 86.2 68.4 49.0 48.6 46.7 46.3 52.6 49.8 51.8 47.1 16.7 45.5 90.9 66.8 49.4 77.1 65.6 52.6 53.0 54.2 53.8 68.0 72.3 51.8 76.7 100.0 97.6 78.7 57.7 53.4 43.5 38.0 1.2 40.7 70.8 74.7 62.9 75.9 49.8 48.6 38.8 21.0 36.4 44.7 32.8 0.0 20.2 40.0 49.0 70.7 22.1 8.7 13.8 31.6 51.0 51.4 53.3 53.7 47.4 50.2 48.2 52.9 83.3 54.5 9.1 33.2 50.6 22.9 34.4 47.4 47.0 45.8 46.2 32.0 27.7 48.2 23.3 0.0 2.4 21.3 42.3 46.6 56.5 62.0 98.8 59.3 29.2 25.3 37.1 24.1 50.2 51.4 61.2 79.0 63.6 55.3 67.2 100.0 79.8 60.0 51.0 a T h e s e figures are based u p o n figures c o m p i l e d for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. 6 T h e s c h e d u l e of m o n t h s u s e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e s e t a b l e s , unless o t h e r w i s e specified, represents a y e a r , s u c h as 1893, i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is g i v e n as a n a i d t o e n a b l e one t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e y e a r i n w h i c h t h e different weeks fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (*>). c I n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s t h e m i n i m u m w e e k l y figure for e a c h y e a r is t a k e n as 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n as 100, a n d t h e o t h e r figures are p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , are r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 ( e i g h t h w e e k ) , are r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, w h i l e t h e forty-seventh w e e k is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 9.3, i. e. ( ^ l o ^ - o ^ I ^ ' s o o ' o o o ) X 1 0 0 , C f ' p p ' 1 3 ~ 1 5 a n d 2 2 ' <* T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e e x a c t reverse of those i n t h e p r e c e d i n g c o l u m n . I n this case t h e m a x i m u m figure for t h e year is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m i n i m u m figure b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, a n d t h e o t h e r s are p r o r a t e d . T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s m a y b e considered as i n a sense indices of m o n e t a r y s t r i n g e n c y , rising as t h e y u s u a l l y d o w h e n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t t i g h t e n s a n d falling w h e n it becomes slack. 16065°—11- -17 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 258 T A B L E 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York a inclusive —Continued. City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, [ A m o u n t expressed i n m i l l i o n s of dollars.] 1907. Loans. Net deposits. B a n k - n o t e circulation. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal t e n d e r s ) . R a t i o s of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week. 6 Amount. Jan.— 1, 2. 3, 4 Feb.- 5 6. 7. 8. Mar.— 9. 10. 11. 12. Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18. 19 20 21 June—22. 23. 24. 25. J u l y — 26 27. 28. 29. 30 Aug.—31. 32. 33, 34. Sept.—35. 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43. Nov.—44 45. 46 47 Dec.—48 49. 50. 51. 52. 049.7 048.8 064.0 086.0 097.8 099.4 092.1 083.5 079.2 067.0 053.6 050.0 056.5 062.7 099.7 125.0 123.4 140.3 126.2 124.8 126.4 139.9 141.4 139.8 134.4 126.5 115.7 104.8 105.3 123.2 127.0 110.5 096.2 088.2 088.0 088.6 089.0 097.6 100.4 089.1 083.4 076.8 087.7 148.5 187.3 192.0 188.0 198.0 186.4 175.0 165.4 147.7 Index n u m b e r . cl A m o u n t . 0.6 0.0 10.2 24.9 32.8 33.9 29.0 23.2 20.4 12.2 3.2 0.8 5.2 9.3 34.1 51.1 50.0 61.3 51.9 50.9 52.0 61.0 62.0 61.0 57.4 52.1 44.8 37.5 37.9 49.8 52.4 41.3 31.8 26.4 26-3 26.7 26.9 32.7 34.6 27.0 23.2 18.8 26.1 66.8 92.8 95.9 93.3 100.0 92.2 84.6 78.1 66.3 1,000.5 1,008.9 1,042.4 1,067.0 1,076.7 1,065.5 1,057.5 1,045.0 1,038.4 1,019.8 1,003.9 1,002.1 1,019.8 1,036.7 081.6 108.1 106.1 120.5 104.4 106.1 112.6 1,128.1 1.119.1 1.114.2 1,106.9 1,092.0 1,078.5 1,070.7 1,072.9 1,095.7 1,099.3 1,076.9 1,059.4 1.048.3 1,046.6 1,046.4 1,044.8 1,057.0 1,055.1 1,036.7 1,026.0 1,025.7 1,023.7 1,051.7 1,086.8 1,089.3 1,079.8 1,083.2 1,074.8 1,066.8 1,059.4 1,050.9 Index n u m b e r . c\ A m o u n t . 0.0 6.6 32.8 52.1 59.7 50.9 44.7 34.9 29.7 15.1 2.7 1.3 15.1 28.4 63.6 84.3 82.8 94.0 81.4 82.8 87.9 100.0 92.9 89.1 83.4 71.7 61.1 55.0 56.7 74.6 77.4 59.9 46.2 37.5 36.1 36.0 34.7 44.3 42.8 28.4 20.0 19.7 18.2 40.1 67.6 69.6 62.1 64.8 58.2 52.0 46.2 39.5 53.6 53.6 53.6 53.5 53.1 53.3 53.1 53.0 52.7 52.2 51.5 50.9 50.8 50.3 50.2 50.1 50.0 50.1 50.1 50.4 50.6 50.6 50.5 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.3 50.3 50.3 50.2 50.1 50.1 50.2 50.1 50.3 50.4 50.6 50.6 50.6 50.6 51.0 51.6 51.3 51.7 52.8 55.8 59.2 62.1 65.6 68.9 70.6 71.7 Index n u m b e r , cl A m o u n t . 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.1 14.3 15.2 14.3 13.8 12.4 10.1 6.9 4.2 3.7 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.5 1.4 1.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.6 7.4 6.0 7.8 12.9 26.7 42.4 55.8 71.9 87.1 94.9 100.0 250.2 260.8 279.0 282.3 281.8 269.7 268.8 265.5 263.4 257.0 254.0 255.2 268.0 278.6 286.2 288.7 288.8 286.9 284.5 287.9 293.8 294.8 285.7 283.0 282.3 275.5 270.4 274.5 277.3 283.2 282.2 276.9 274.1 272.0 270.4 268.9 268.1 272.6 269.4 261.8 261.1 267.6 254.7 224.1 219.7 218.6 215.8 217.8 222.5 226.6 233.1 242.5 Index n u m b e r , cl 43.5 57.0 80.0 84.2 83.5 68.2 67.1 62.9 60.3 52.2 48.4 49.9 66.1 79.5 89.1 92.3 92.4 90.0 87.0 91.3 98.7 100.0 88.5 85.1 84.2 75.6 69.1 74.3 77.8 85.3 84.0 77.3 73.8 71.1 69.1 67.2 66.2 71.9 67.8 58.2 57.3 65.6 49.2 10.5 4.9 3.5 0.0 2.5 8.5 13.7 21.9 33.8 cent. 25.00 25.85 26.76 26.45 26.17 25.30 25.41 25.41 25.36 25.19 25.29 25.46 26.28 26.87 26.45 26.05 26.10 25.60 25.75 26.03 26.40 26.13 25.53 25.40 25.50 25.22 25.08 25.63 25.84 25.83 25.68 25.72 25.87 25.94 25.83 25.69 25.65 25.78 25.53 25.25 25.45 26.08 24.88 21.30 20.21 20.06 19.98 20.10 20.69 21.23 22.00 23.07 Direct Reverse index index number, c number.** 72.9 85.2 98.4 93.9 89.8 77.2 78.8 78.8 78.1 75.6 77.1 79.6 91.4 100.0 93.9 88.1 88.8 81.6 83.8 87.8 93.2 89.3 80.6 78.7 80.1 76.1 74.0 82.0 85.1 84.9 82.7 83.3 85.5 86.5 84.9 82.9 82.3 84.2 80.6 76.5 79.4 88.5 71.1 19.2 3.4 1.3 0.0 1.8 10.4 18.2 29.4 j 44.9 27.1 14.8 1.6 6.1 10.2 22.8 21.2 21.2 21.9 24.4 22.9 20.4 8.6 0.0 6.1 11.9 11.2 18.4 16.2 12.2 6.8 10.7 19.4 21.3 19.9 23.9 26.0 18.0 14.9 15.1 17.3 16.7 14.5 13.5 15.1 17.1 17.7 15.8 19.4 23.5 20.6 11.5 28.9 80.8 96.6 98.7 100.0 98.2 89.6 81.8 70.6 55.1 a T h e s e figures are b a s e d u p o n figures c o m p i l e d for t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission from t h e F i n a n c i a l R e v i e w a n d t h e Commercial a n d F i n a n c i a l Chronicle. 6 T h e s c h e d u l e of m o n t h s used t h r o u g h o u t t h e s e t a b l e s , unless o t h e r w i s e specified, r e p r e s e n t s a y e a r , s u c h a s 1893, i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1 falls u p o n S u n d a y . I t is g i v e n as a n a i d t o e n a b l e o n e t o locate a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e t i m e i n t h e y e a r i n w h i c h t h e different w e e k s fall. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c l n c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s , t h e m i n i m u m w e e k l y figure for e a c h y e a r is t a k e n a s 0, t h e m a x i m u m w e e k l y figure is t a k e n a s 100, a n d t h e o t h e r figures are p r o r a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , t h e m i n i m u m loans i n 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth w e e k ) , are r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0. t h e m a x i m u m loans, $414,600,000 ( e i g h t h w e e k ) , are r e p r e s e n t e d b y / 387 300 000—384 500 000 \ 7 7 7 x 0 xa n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, w h i l e t h e forty-seventh w e e k is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 9.3, i. e. I 414'^600L00b-384^500TOO 7 x l 0 ° - C f - PP- 1 3 ~ 1 5 a n d 22 * d T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e e x a c t reverse of those i n t h e preceding c o l u m n . I n t h i s case t h e m a x i m u m figure for t h e y e a r is r e p r e s e n t e d b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 0, t h e m i n i m u m figure b y a n i n d e x n u m b e r of 100, a n d t h e o t h e r s are p r o r a t e d . T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s m a y b e considered as i n a sense indices of m o n e t a r y s t r i n g e n c y , rising a s t h e y u s u a l l y d o w h e n t h e m o n e y m a r k e t t i g h t e n s a n d falling w h e n i t becomes slack. SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 259 TABLE 4.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, bank-note circulation, and reserves of the New York City clearing-house banks, 1890-1908, inclusive a—Continued. [Amount expressed in millions of dollars.^] 1908. Net deposits. Loans. Bank-note circulation. Reserves (specie and legal tenders). Ratios of reserves to deposits. Month and week.c Amount. Jan.— 1. 2. 03 4. Feb.— 5. 6. 7. 8., Mar.— 9. 10. 11. 12. Apr.—13. 14. 15. 16. 17.. May— 18. 19. 20. 21. June— 22.. 23., 24.. 25. July— 26.. 27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.—31. 32. 33. 34. Sept.—35. 36.. 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40. 41.. 42.. 43. Nov.— 44. 45.. 46.. 47. Dec— 48.. 49.. 50.. 51.. 52. ,132.9 ,117.1 ,126.7 ,135.6 ,133.8 ,139.8 ,135.2 , 144.0 ,161.1 ,164.3 ,160.7 ,161.7 ,164.5 , 180.4 ,187.4 ,195.7 ,190.5 ,190.5 ,196.3 ,201.1 ,219.0 ,215.1 ,211.6 ,213.9 ,239.9 ,231.2 ,241.1 ,255.7 ,264.7 ,270.9 ,273.2 ,275.6 ,290.0 ,286.6 ,289.8 ,300.7 ,322.7 ,318.2 ,312.0 ,312.1 ,324.4 ,338.4 ,338.4 ,333.4 ,323.1 ,328.1 ,332.8 ,340.5 ,347.1 ,339.5 ,316.0 ,276.7 Index number.dl Amount. 6.9 0.0 4.2 8.0 7.3 9.9 7.9 11.7 19.1 20.5 19.0 19.4 20.6 27.5 30.6 34.2 31.9 31.9 34.5 36.5 44.3 42.6 41.1 42.1 53.4 49.6 53.9 60.3 64.2 66.9 67.9 68.9 75.2 73.7 75.1 79.9 89.4 86.6 84.8 84.8 90.2 96.2 96.2 94.1 89.6 91.8 93.8 97.2 100.0 96.7 86.5 69.3 048.4 051.6 090.1 127.1 138.5 137.3 132.3 146.2 167.6 175.7 171.8 182.0 189.3 213.9 225.5 245.6 250.9 257.7 270.3 276.2 296.9 285.7 282.5 289.2 321.2 320.1 320.4 328.3 346.0 358.9 365.4 368.5 385.9 388.1 394.6 402.6 420.0 412.5 405.9 396.7 402.7 416.6 418.1 411.4 396.9 403.5 414.0 425.3 424.1 408.5 368.9 322.1 Index number.^! Amount. 0.0 0.8 11.1 20.9 23.9 23.6 22.3 25.9 31.6 33.8 32.7 35.4 37.4 43.9 47.0 52.3 53.7 55.5 58.9 60.4 65.9 63.0 62.1 63.9 72.4 72.1 72.2 74.3 79.0 82.4 84.1 84.9 89.6 90.1 91.9 94.0 98.6 96.6 94.9 92.4 94.0 97.7 98.1 96.3 92.5 94.2 97.0 100.0 99.7 95.5 85.0 72.6 72.3 72.2 70.9 70.0 69.2 67.3 66.7 66.1 64.1 62.1 61.4 61.2 61.0 60.2 59.5 59.4 59.3 58.2 57.3 57.2 57.2 57.1 56.8 56.6 57.6 56.8 56.4 56.1 56.0 56.0 56.1 56.0 55.6 55.1 54.6 54.7 54.4 54.4 54.1 53.7 53.5 53.3 53.1 52.9 52.6 52.4 47.9 45.5 45.9 46.4 46.6 49.1 Index number. d\ Amount. 100.0 99.6 94.8 91.4 88.4 81.3 79.1 76.9 69.4 61.9 59.3 58.6 57.8 54.9 52.2 51.9 51.5 47.4 44.0 43.7 43.7 43.3 42.2 41.4 45.2 42.2 40.7 39.6 39.2 39.2 39.6 39.2 37.7 35.8 34.0 34,3 33.2 33.2 32.1 30.6 29.9 29.1 28.4 27.6 26.5 25.7 9.0 0.0 1.5 3.4 4.1 13.4 250.6 268.9 295.1 318.8 325.1 314.1 313.9 319.0 321.1 324.0 323.6 332.9 337.1 344.1 349.6 361.3 371.7 376.7 381.4 383.6 380.7 369.3 367.8 375.7 389.0 396.1 384.8 379.1 389.2 396.2 400.4 401.3 404.1 410.1 414.0 410.3 407.0 403.3 401.5 391.4 385.3 385.6 387.4 386.4 379.5 381.0 383.1 384.4 376.2 369.0 352.2 347.4 Index number.dl Per cent. 0.0 11.2 27.2 41.7 45.6 38.9 38.7 41.9 43.1 44.9 44.7 50.4 52.9 57.2 60.6 67.7 74.1 77.2 80.0 81.4 79.6 72.6 71.7 76.6 84.7 89.0 82.1 78.6 84.8 89.1 91.7 92.2 93.9 97.6 100.0 97.7 95.7 93.4 92.3 86.2 82.4 82.6 83.7 83.1 78.9 79.8 81.1 81.9 76.9 72.5 62.2 59.2 23.89 25.57 27.06 28.28 28.55 27.60 27.73 27.83 27.50 27.56 27.61 28.15 28.34 28.34 28.52 29.00 29.71 29.95 30.03 30.06 29.35 28.72 28.68 29.14 29.44 30.01 29.14 28.54 28.92 29.16 29.32 29.32 29.16 29.54 29.69 29.25 28.66 28.55 28.56 28.02 27.47 27.22 27.32 27.38 27.17 27.15 27.09 26.97 26.42 26.20 25.73 26.28 Direct Reverse index index number.^! number.* 0.0 27.2 51.4 71.1 75.5 60.1 62.2 63.9 58.5 59.5 60.3 69.0 72.1 72.1 75.0 82.8 94.3 98.2 99.5 100.0 88.5 78.3 77.6 85.1 90.0 99.2 85.1 75.4 81.5 85.4 88.0 88.0 85.4 91.6 94.0 86.9 77.3 75.5 75.7 66.9 58.0 54.0 55.6 56.6 53.2 52.8 51.9 49.9 41.0 37.4 29.8 38.7 a These figures are based upon figures compiled for the National Monetary Commission from the Financial Review and the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. 6 The average figures for the nineteen years (1890-1908) are summarized in Table IV of the Text of the Report (p. 23). c The schedule of months used throughout these tables, unless otherwise specified, represents a year, such as 1893, in which January 1 falls upon Sunday. It is given as an aid to enable one to locate approximately the time in the year in which the different weeks fall. Cf. p. 13, note (&). d In computing index numbers, the minimum weekly figure for each year is taken as 0, the maximum weekly figure is taken as 100, and the other figures are prorated. For example, the minimum loans in 1890, $384,500,000 (forty-eighth week), are represented by an index number of 0, the maximum loans, $414,600,000 (eighth week), are represented by / 387 300 000 384 500 000 \ an index number of 100, while the forty-seventh week is represented by an index number of 9.3,1, e. ( 414 , 6QO , OOO-384'500 000 / x 1 0 0 ' C f ' p P - 1 3 ~ 1 5 a n d 2 2 , « These index numbers are the exact reverse of those in the preceding column. In this case the maximum figure for the year is represented by an index number of 0, the minimum figure by an index number of 100, and the others are prorated. These index numbers may be considered as in a sense indices of monetary stringency, rising as they usually do when the money market tightens and falling when it becomes slack. NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 260 APPENDIX C.—CHICAGO CLEARING H O U S E BANKS, 1899-1908. TABLE 5.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the Chicago clearing-house banks, 1899-1908" [Amounts expressed in millions of dollars.] 1899 Loans. Month and week.& Deposits. 1900 Reserves (specie and legal tenders). Ratio of reserves to deposits. Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie and legal tenders). Ratio of reserves to deposits. Index number. Index InInInInInIndex Amount. dex Amount. dex Ratio. dex Amount. dex Amount. dex Ratio. Relative Amount. numAmount. numnumnumnumnumber, c ber, c bers b ers ber, c ber, c Ratio. demand Ratio. for money.d Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 June— 22 23 24 25 July— 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec—48 49 50 51 52 82.0 84.0 85.9 84.8 83.6 84.8 84.5 84.6 86.8 87.2 88.5 88.5 88.8 90.1 91.2 90.7 90.7 91.9 90.8 91.6 92.1 93.4 93.5 93.6 93.9 95.6 95.2 94.1 93.4 92.8 92.1 93.1 93.8 93.8 93.7 94.9 95.2 97.2 98.4 97.1 97.6 96.7 95.9 95.7 93.9 93.8 93.3 93.2 92.9 93.7 94.0 94.2 0.0 12.2 23.8 17.1 9.8 17.1 15.2 15.9 29.3 31.7 39.6 39.6 41.5 49.4 56.1 53.1 53.1 60.4 53.7 58.6 61.6 69.5 70.1 70.7 72.6 82.9 80.5 73.8 69.5 65.9 61.6 67.7 72.0 72.0 71.3 78.7 80.5 92.7 100.0 92.1 95.1 89.6 84.8 83.5 72.6 72.0 68.9 68.3 66.5 71.3 73.2 74.4 142.8 142.0 144.7 150.4 150.6 150.0 148.1 147.8 152.2 148.9 149.2 149.1 150.2 151.2 150.9 150.0 151.6 155.3 152.4 157.0 156.2 154.7 156.2 156.2 155.9 154.9 155.2 154.7 155.5 155.5 155.2 156.3 154.7 152.6 153.5 156.8 155.9 154.6 150.8 148.5 152.5 151.6 150.1 149.7 150.3 149.1 147.7 147.0 146.5 146.2 145.7 144.8 5.3 0.0 18.0 56.0 57.3 53.3 40.7 38.7 68.0 46.0 48.0 47.3 54.7 61.3 59.3 53.3 64.0 88.7 69.3 100.0 94.7 84.7 94.7 94.7 92.7 86.0 88.0 84.7 90.0 90.0 88.0 95.3 84.7 70.7 76.7 98.7 92.7 84.0 58.7 43.3 70.0 64.0 54.0 51.3 55.3 47.3 38.0 33.3 30.0 28.0 24.7 18.7 30.2 29.9 30.0 30.7 32.8 31.1 29.3 28.6 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.5 27.7 27.3 28.2 30.1 30.2 31.8 31.8 31.8 30.3 30.5 31.0 30.5 29.9 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.0 30.8 30.6 30.1 27.9 28.6 27.0 26.6 27.2 24.5 24.0 24.8 25.6 27.4 28.0 27.2 26.5 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.5 26.1 24.9 70.5 67.0 68.2 76.1 100.0 80.7 60.2 52.3 54.5 48.9 47.7 51.1 51.1 42.0 37.5 47.7 69.3 70.5 88.6 88.6 88.6 71.6 73.9 79.5 73.9 67.0 56.8 61.4 64.8 68.2 77.3 75.0 69.3 44.3 52.3 34.1 29.5 36.4 5.7 0.0 9.1 18.2 38.6 45.5 36.4 28.4 26.1 29.5 31.8 28.4 23.9 10.2 Per ct. 21.12 21.08 20.71 20.42 21.74 20.70 19.78 19.33 18.95 19.00 18.92 "19.14 18.98 18.34 18.07 18.82 19.82 19.43 20.87 20.25 20.36 19.58 19.56 19.86 19.59 19.31 18.70 18.98 19.11 19.32 19.83 19.57 19.43 18.25 18.60 17.19 17.05 17.62 16.28 16.17 16.27 16.86 18.27 18.71 18.12 17.79 17.80 18.09 18.32 18.13 17.92 17.21 88.9 88.2 81.5 76.3 100.0 81.3 64.8 56.7 49.9 50.8 49.4 53.3 50.4 39.0 34.1 47.6 65.5 58.5 84.4 73.2 75.2 61.2 60.9 66.2 61.4 56.4 45.4 50.4 52.8 56.5 65.7 61.0 58.5 37.3 43.6 18.3 15.8 26.0 2.0 0.0 1.8 12.4 37.7 45.6 35.0 29.1 29.3 34.5 38.6 35.2 31.4 18.7 11.1 11.8 18.5 23.7 0.0 8.7 35.2 43.3 50.1 49.2 50.6 46.7 49.6 61.0 65.9 52.4 34.5 41.5 15.6 26.8 24.8 38.8 39.1 33.8 38.6 43.6 54.6 49.6 47.2 43.5 34.3 39.0 41.5 62.7 56.4 81.7 84.2 74.0 98.0 100.0 98.2 87.6 62.3 54.4 65.0 70.9 70.7 65.5 61.4 64.8 68.6 81.3 95.2 94.8 94.9 93.8 93.1 94.8 95.7 97.2 97.7 97.4 97.8 98.0 98.2 97.6 96.7 95.9 95.2 94.5 95.7 95.1 95.3 96.2 98.0 99.2 99.5 100.6 101.3 102.2 102.3 102.0 99.8 100.3 101.6 102.7 103.7 113.8 123.5 124.2 125.6 126.2 127.6 126.3 127.0 127.5 126.0 123.7 123.7 124.1 123.6 124.7 127.0 128.6 5.9 4.8 5.1 2.0 0.0 4.8 7.3 11.5 13.0 12.1 13.2 13.8 14.4 12.7 10.1 7.9 5.9 3.9 7.3 5.6 6.2 8.7 13.8 17.2 18.0 21.1 23.1 25.6 25.9 25.1 18.9 20.3 23.9 27.0 29.9 58.3 85.6 87.6 91.5 93.2 97.2 93.5 95.5 96.9 92.7 86.2 86.2 87.3 85.9 89.0 95.5 100.0 145.9 144.8 145.9 144.5 146.8 149.1 148.3 150.8 150.2 150.3 150.2 151.7 151.5 150.6 151.1 152.0 153.2 155.1 157.6 157.6 158.6 161.3 164.8 165.8 167.4 172.6 174.5 172.9 171.9 171.6 174.7 175.5 178.5 178.7 178.7 195.1 211.0 210.7 209.5 208.8 212.6 209.2 208.9 208.2 205.7 208.1 209.1 207.1 205.9 205.5 207.7 209.4 2.1 0.4 2.1 0.0 3.4 6.8 5.6 9.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 10.6 10.3 9.0 9.7 11.0 12.8 15.6 19.2 19.2 20.7 24.7 29.8 31.3 33.6 41.3 44.1 41.7 40.2 39.8 44.3 45.5 49.9 50.2 50.2 74.3 97.7 97.2 95.4 94.4 100.0 95.0 94.6 93.5 89.9 93.4 94.9 91.9 90.2 89.6 92.8 95.3 26.6 26.8 28.1 29.4 30.7 30.2 28.7 27.6 26.0 25.8 26.6 27.4 27.5 26.4 27.6 28.3 29.3 29.8 32.3 33.4 33.8 33.6 34.3 33.9 33.8 34.5 34.4 35.3 35.3 36.3 36.7 37.3 38.7 38.4 38.0 38.5 40.4 39.2 39.3 38.3 38.5 40.5 40.7 39.0 38.9 39.4 39.5 38.4 38.6 40.2 39.2 38.8 5.4 6.7 15.4 24.2 32.9 29.5 19.5 12.1 1.3 0.0 5.4 10.7 11.4 4.0 12.1 16.8 23.5 26.8 43.6 51.0 53.7 52.3 57.0 54.4 53.7 58.4 57.7 63.8 63.8 70.5 73.2 77.2 86.6 84.6 81.9 85.2 98.0 89.9 90.6 83.9 85.2 98.7 100.0 88.6 87.9 91.3 91.9 84.6 85.9 96.6 89.9 87.2 Per ct. 18.20 18.53 19.26 20.38 20.91 20.26 19.32 18.32 17.32 17.17 17.69 18.04 18.13 17.50 18.23 18.62 19.15 19.19 20.48 21.20 21.28 20.84 20.82 20.45 20.22 19.97 19.73 20.44 20.51 21.15 20.99 21.24 21.67 21.47 21.26 19.73 19.17 18.60 18.76 18.33 18.10 19.35 19.47 18.74 18.89 18.91 18.89 18.55 18.74 19.54 18.88 18.54 number. Relative demand for money.d 22.9 30.2 46.4 71.3 83.1 68.7 47.8 25.6 3.3 0.0 11.6 19.3 21.3 7.3 23.6 32.2 44.0 44.9 73.6 89.6 91.3 81.6 81.1 72.9 67.8 62.2 56.9 72.7 74.2 88.4 84.9 90.4 100.0 95.6 90.9 56.9 44.4 31.8 35.3 25.8 20.7 48.4 51.1 34.9 38.2 38.7 38.2 30.7 34.9 52.7 38.0 30.4 a The figures for amounts were collected by the National Monetary Commission from the Chicago clearing-house banks. b The schedule of months is based upon a year in which January 1st falls on Sunday. Weekly figures were adjusted to the nearest 52 complete weeks in the year. c For method of computing index numbers, cf. pp. 13-15 and 22. d These index numbers are the reverse of those in the preceding column and the sum of the two for each week equals 100. 77.1 69.8 53.6 28.7 16.9 31.3 52.2 74.4 96.7 100.0 88.4 80.7 78.7 92.7 76.4 67.8 56.0 55.1 26.4 10.4 8.7 18.4 18.9 27.1 32.2 37.8 43.1 27.3 25.8 11.6 15.1 9.6 0.0 4.4 9.1 43.1 55.6 68.2 64.7 74.2 79.3 51.6 48.9 65.1 61.8 61.3 61.8 69.3 65.1 47.3 62.0 69.6 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 261 TABLE 5.—Seasonal variations in the loons, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the Chicago clearing-house banks, 1899-1908—Continued. [ A m o u n t s e x p r e s s e d i n millions of dollars.] 1902 1901 Deposits. Loans. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. Loans. Deposits. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week. Index number. Jan.— 1. 2. 3. 4. F e b . — 5. 6. 7. 8. M a r . - 9. 10. 11. 12. Apr.—13. 14. 15. 16. 17. May— 18. 19. 20. 21. June—22. 23. 24. 25. J u l y — 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.—31. 32. 33. 34. Sept.—35. 36, 37. 38. 39. Oct.— 40. 41. 42. 43. Nov.—44. 45. 46. 47. Dec—48. 49. 50. 51. 52. InInIndex dex dex A m o u n t . n u m A m o u n t . num- A m o u n t . num- Ratio. ber. ber. ber. Ratio. Per ct. 19.40 19.81 20.40 20.45 20.50 20.42 19.55 19.31 17.14 17.36 17.50 17.03 17.69 18.01 18.56 18.88 18.56 18.93 18.56 18.63 18.53 18.21 18.12 18.54 18.71 18.23 18.43 18.96 19.04 19.54 19.19 19.23 19.17 18.44 18.07 18.07 18.95 19.35 18.71 18.22 18.79 18.50 18.17 18.08 18.04 18.04 17.38 16.83 16.33 16.94 17.38 17.44 73.6 83.5 97.6 98.8 100.0 98.1 77.2 71.5 19.4 24.7 28.1 16.8 32.6 40.3 53.5 61.1 53.5 62.3 53.5 55.2 52.8 45.1 42.9 53.0 57.1 45.6 50.4 63.1 65.0 77.0 68.6 69.5 68.1 50.6 41.7 41.7 62.8 72.4 57.1 45.3 59.0 52.0 44.1 42.0 41.0 41.0 25.2 12.0 0.0 14.6 25.2 26.6 129. 131. 130. 131. 131. 131. 131, 131. 133. 135. 136. 137. 135. 137. 138. 138. 140. 143. 148. 151. 148. 146. 147. 146. 148. 149. 151. 151, 154. 151. 152. 14ft. 148. 148. 148. 149. 149. 148. 149. 151. 149. 147. 147. 148. 149. 148. 149. 150. 151. 151. 152. 153. 0.0 7.4 3.7 8.7 7.9 6.6 6.2 6.2 15.7 21.9 28.9 33.5 24.4 31.4 36.0 34.7 43.0 57.0 78.5 88.0 77.7 68.6 72.3 69.4 75.2 82.6 88.0 90.1 100.0 90.5 93.8 81.8 78.9 78.5 77.7 81.0 81.0 76.9 83.1 87.6 81.4 74.8 71.5 76.0 79.3 78.5 83.1 84.3 88.4 213.6 0.0 213.9 0.9 217.5 11.9 217.9 13.1 217.9 13.1 218.8 15.9 222.1 25.9 226.3 38.7 225.1 35.1 228.2 44.5 228.1 44.2 224.1 32.0 223.4 29.9 225.8 37.2 225.2 35.4 226.7 39.9 230.6 51.8 231.3 54.0 239.2 78.0 236.9 71.0 235.5 66.8 237.0 71.3 237.9 74.1 237.9 74.1 238.3 75.3 241.6 85.4 246.4 100.0 242.6 88.4 242.5 88.1 239.3 78.4 238.6 76.2 241.2 84.1 243.0 89.6 241.0 83.5 243.9 92.4 241.9 86.3 242.6 88.4 239.4 78.7 239.6 79.3 237.6 73.2 235.7 67.4 236.1 68.6 238.4 75.6 236.5 69.8 238.2 75.0 239.7 79.6 240.3 81.4 240.8 82.9 240.1 80.8 238.7 76.5 238.6 76.2 238.6 76.2 41.4 37.2 42.4 48.8 44.4 72.1 44.6 74.4 44.7 75.6 44.7 75.6 43.4 60.5 43.7 64.0 38.6 4.7 39.6 16.3 39.9 19.8 38.2 0.0 39.5 15.1 40.7 29.1 41.8 41.9 42.8 53.5 42.8 53.5 43.8 65.1 44.4 72.1 44.1 68.6 43.6 62.8 43.2 58.1 43.1 57.0 44.1 68.6 44.6 74.4 44.0 67.4 45.4 83.7 46.0 90.7 46.2 93.0 46.8 100.0 45.8 88.4 46.4 95.4 46.6 97.7 44.4 72.1 44.1 68.6 43.7 64.0 46.0 90.7 46.3 94.2 44.8 76.7 43.3 59.3 44.1 68.6 43.7 64.0 43.3 59.3 42.8 53.5 43.0 55.8 43.2 58.1 41.8 41.9 40.5 26.7 39.2 11.6 40.4 25.6 41.5 38.4 41.6 39.5 Index number. InInIndex dex dex R e l a t i v e A m o u n t . num- A m o u n t . n u m - A m o u n t . n u m - R a t i o . demand ber. ber. ber. for money. 26.4 16.5 2.4 1.2 0.0 1.9 22.8 28.5 80.6 75.3 71.9 83.2 67.4 59.7 46.5 38.9 46.5 37.7 46.5 44.8 47.2 54.9 57.1 47.0 42.9 54.4 49.6 36.9 35.0 23.0 31.4 30.5 31.9 49.4 58.3 58.3 37.2 27.6 42.9 54.7 41.0 48.0 55.9 58.0 59.0 59.0 74.8 88.0 100.0 85.4 74.8 73.4 3.2 152.6 1.3 151.9 0.0 151.4 2.9 152.5 3.4 152.7 9.0 154.8 157.5 16.1 157.5 16.1 158.2 18.0 160.9 25.1 163.4 31.7 163.4 31.7 172.6 56.1 168.6 45.5 168.2 44.4 167.2 41.8 167.2 41.8 167.7 43.1 168.0 43.9 167.2 41.8 167.9 43.7 183.0 83.6 185.0 88.9 184.6 87.8 185.0 88.9 186.7 93.4 184.6 87.8 182.6 82.5 181.6 79.9 181.8 80.4 185.7 90.7 187.2 94.7 187.5 95.5 186.1 91.8 186.1 91.8 186.4 92.6 187.4 95.2 188.7 98.7 189.2 100.0 187.2 94.7 185.5 90.2 184.0 86.2 181.9 80.7 181.0 78.3 180.4 76.7 178.9 72.8 175.6 64.0 174.7 61.6 176.4 66.1 175.8 64.6 176.2 65.6 175.2 63.0 232.7 0.0 243.7 17.2 247.0 22.3 247.4 23.0 249.3 25.9 253.1 31.9 257.1 38.1 257.1 38.1 258.8 40.8 259.0 41.1 258.4 40.2 259.3 41.6 270.7 59.4 267.4 54.2 265.8 51.7 265.7 51.6 268.1 55.3 270.4 58.9 270.0 58.3 268.4 55.8 274.3 65.0 292.1 92.8 290.1 89.7 292.3 93.1 287.6 85.8 288.6 87.3 292.2 93.0 290.3 90.0 291.0 91.1 292.3 93.1 294.9 97.2 296.7 100.0 293.2 94.5 288.8 87.7 286.9 84.7 283.5 79.4 281.9 76.9 280.9 75.3 279.1 72.5 275.0 66.1 271.3 60.3 271.0 59.8 270.3 58.8 271.5 60.6 272.6 62.3 272.7 62.5 269.4 57.3 272.1 61.6 270.2 58.6 269.8 58.0 268.6 56.1 264.6 49.8 44.4 18.6 46.7 31.6 47.2 34.5 48.2 40.1 47.4 35.6 46.7 31.6 46.0 27.7 43.8 15.3 44.9 21.5 46.0 27.7 44.6 19.8 45.3 23.7 47.1 33.9 47.8 37.9 49.0 44.6 48.4 41.2 50.5 53.1 51.5 58.8 52.0 61.6 52.3 63.3 53.9 72.3 52.7 65.5 52.4 63.8 52.4 63.8 52.1 62.1 53.0 67.2 51.4 58.2 55.0 78.5 57.6 93.2 58.8 100.0 57.1 90.4 54.3 74.6 50.6 53.7 50.2 51.4 48.6 42.4 46.6 31.1 45.8 26.6 45.2 23.2 43.4 13.0 42.5 7.9 42.2 6.2 41.1 0.0 42.3 6.8 42.2 6.2 43.5 13.6 43.7 14.7 46.5 30.5 47.7 37.3 47.1 33.9 46.5 30.5 46.8 32.2 46.4 29.9 Per ct. 19.07 19.15 19.09 19.47 18.99 18.43 17.90 17.04 17.36 17.77 17.25 17.47 17.39 17.87 18.43 18.23 18.85 19.04 19.34 19.49 19.65 18.05 18.07 17.93 18.11 18.38 17.59 18.94 19.78 20.12 19.37 18.29 17.26 17.37 16.95 16.43 16.26 16.10 15.53 15.44 15.55 15.15 15.67 15.54 15.96 16.02 17.26 17.53 17.45 17.23 17.42 17.55 Ratio. 78.9 Relative demand for money. 21.1 80.5 19.5 79.3 20.7 13.1 86.9 77.3 66.0 55.3 38.0 44.5 52.7 42.3 46.7 45.1 54.7 22.7 34.0 44.7 62.0 55.5 47.3 57.7 53.3 54.9 45.3 66.0 34.0 62.0 74.4 38.0 78.3 84.3 87.3 90.5 58.3 58.8 55.9 25.6 21.7 15.7 12.7 9.5 41.7 41.2 44.1 59.6 40.4 65.0 49.1 76.3 93.2 35.0 50.9 100.0 84.9 63.2 42.5 44.7 36.2 25.8 22.3 19.1 7.6 5.8 8.0 0.0 10.5 7.8 16.3 17.5 42.5 23.7 6.8 0.0 15.1 36.8 57.5 55.3 63.8 74.2 77.7 80.9 92.4 94.2 92.0 100.0 89.5 92.2 83.7 82.5 57.5 52.1 47.9 46.3 53.7 41.9 58.1 45.7 54.3 48.3 51.7 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 262 TABLE 5.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the Chicago clearing-house 1899-1908—Continued. banks, [Amounts expressed in millions of dollars.] 1903 Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). 1904 R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Loans. Deposits. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Month and week. Index number. InInIndex x dex A m o u n t . n u m - A m o u n t . nduem - Amount. num- Ratio. ber. ber. ber. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J U l y _ 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 45 46 47 Dec.— 48 49 50 51 52 176.1 28.2 175.9 27.3 176.4 29.4 180.1 44.5 181.6 50.6 184.4 62.0 186.6 71.0 185.3 65.7 190.1 85.3 193.7 100.0 193.7 100.0 190.1 85.3 189.0 80.8 188.3 78.0 187.9 76.3 188.3 78.0 186.3 69.8 185.1 64.9 183.8 59.6 184.0 60.4 179.6 42.5 179.9 43.7 179.7 42.9 180.4 45.7 180.8 47.4 181.6 50.6 182.7 55.1 182.4 53.9 182.0 52.2 179.5 42.0 179.5 42.0 179.3 41.2 178.3 37.1 178.8 39.2 177.6 34.3 177.3 33.1 178.9 39.6 179.7 42.9 179.1 40.4 177.6 34.3 175.7 26.5 174.1 20.0 172.3 12.7 8.2 171.2 9.0 171.4 9.8 171.6 4.9 170.4 0.0 169.2 6.9 170.9 9.0 171.4 7.8 171.1 14.3 172.7 272.6 43.0 277.9 61.5 277.3 59.4 279.3 66.4 281.8 75.2 283.0 79.4 284.5 84.6 284.3 83.9 288.9 100.0 285.5 88.1 284.0 82.9 278.1 62.2 273.3 45.5 272.2 41.6 275.0 51.4 275.5 53.2 272.8 43.7 273.3 45.5 271.8 40.2 272.2 41.6 270.2 34.6 276.3 55.9 271.1 37.8 272.8 43.7 274.0 47.9 271.2 38.1 273.3 45.5 273.0 44.4 280.1 69.2 273.6 46.5 272.5 42.7 271.2 38.1 272.9 44.1 271.9 40.6 270.5 35.7 269.5 32.2 270.3 35.0 271.6 39.5 267.6 25.5 268.1 27.3 266.4 21.3 270.3 35.0 261.6 4.6 260.3 0.0 261.4 3.9 265.1 16.8 263.0 9.4 264.6 15.0 265.5 18.2 263.8 12.2 264.8 15.7 264.6 15.0 48.7 70.3 50.9 87.5 52.5 100.0 51.2 89.9 49.8 78.9 48.0 64.8 46.4 52.3 46.6 53.9 46.7 54.7 47.0 57.0 45.5 45.3 45.1 42.2 47.7 62.5 44.2 35.2 45.4 44.5 46.4 52.3 45.4 44.5 46.3 51.6 47.3 59.4 49.1 73.4 49.1 73.4 49.1 73.4 50.4 83.6 51.2 89.8 48.4 68.0 46.0 49.2 44.2 35.2 45.3 43.8 48.1 65.6 48.7 70.3 49.4 75.8 48.8 71.1 48.5 68.8 48.1 65.6 48.4 68.0 47.6 61.7 45.7 46.9 45.2 43.0 44.6 38.3 44.1 34.4 42.2 19.5 41.6 14.8 41.3 12.5 39.7 0.0 41.6 14.8 42.0 18.0 42.3 20.3 42.7 23.4 45.4 44.5 46.2 50.8 45.1 42.2 45.1 42.2 Per ct. 17.87 18.31 18.93 18.34 17.68 16.97 16.31 16.38 16.18 16.45 16.02 16.21 17.45 16.24 16.51 16.84 16.64 16.94 17.39 18.04 18.18 17.78 18.60 18.77 17.65 16.96 16.19 16.57 17.16 17.81 18.13 18.01 17.76 17.69 17.90 17.67 16.89 16.65 16.66 16.46 15.84 15.40 15.79 15.23 15.91 15.86 16.07 16.12 17.09 17.51 17.02 17.04 Ratio. 71.4 83.2 100.0 84.0 66.2 47.0 29.2 31.1 25.7 33.0 21.4 26.5 60.0 27.3 34.6 43.5 38.1 46.2 58.4 75.9 79.7 68.9 91.1 95.7 65.4 46.7 25.9 36.2 52.2 69.7 78.4 75.1 68.4 66.5 72.2 65.9 44.9 38.4 38.6 33.2 16.5 4.6 15.1 0.0 18.4 17.0 22.7 24.1 50.3 61.6 48.4 48.9 Index numbers. InInIndex Relative Amount. num- Amount. dex Amount. dex Ratio. n u m n umdemand ber. ber. ber. for money. 28.6 16.8 0.0 16.0 33.8 53.0 70.8 68.9 74.3 67.0 78.6 73.5 40.0 72.7 65.4 56.5 61.9 53.8 41.6 24.1 20.3 31.1 8.9 4.3 34.6 53.3 74.1 63.8 47.8 30.3 21.6 24.9 31.6 33.5 27.8 34.1 55.1 61.6 61.4 66.8 83.5 95.4 84.9 100.0 81.6 83.0 77.3 75.9 49.7 38.4 51.6 51.1 174.4 0.0 174.7 1.0 175.9 5.0 178.2 12.7 180.9 21.7 183.1 29.1 184.1 32.4 185.5 37.1 188.7 47.8 187.6 44.2 187.3 43.1 187.1 42.5 187.8 44.8 188.7 47.8 188.8 48.2 188.3 46.5 188.5 47.2 188.3 46.5 188.3 46.5 187.6 44.2 186.8 41.5 188.9 48.5 187.2 42.8 185.2 36.1 183.9 31.8 185.1 35.8 187.2 42.8 186.9 41.8 186.6 40.8 186.3 39.8 187.0 42.1 188.4 46.8 191.0 55.5 191.8 58.2 192.1 59.2 194.4 66.9 194.5 67.2 196.3 73.2 195.5 70.6 197.5 77.3 196.7 74.6 197.3 76.6 194.3 66.6 196.4 73.6 202.2 93.0 202.6 94.3 201.5 90.6 202.7 94.7 203.0 95.7 204.3 100.0 203.4 97.0 203.9 98.7 271.6 0.0 277.3 9.5 280.6 15.0 284.0 20.7 290.0 30.7 289.8 30.3 294.2 37.7 294.9 38.8 292.8 35.3 291.4 33.0 292.0 34.0 288.1 27.5 286.8 25.3 286.4 24.7 285.2 22.7 287.0 25.7 287.6 26.7 297.3 42.8 292.5 34.8 291.2 32.7 287.9 27.2 290.0 30.7 290.9 32.2 294.1 37.5 291.5 33.2 293.7 36.8 298.1 44.2 300.1 47.5 299.2 46.0 302.5 51.5 304.8 55.3 306.3 57.8 311.0 65.7 307.2 59.3 300.9 48.8 304.5 54.8 304.1 54.2 303.6 53.3 301.9 50.5 306.2 57.7 304.2 54.3 305.6 56.7 305.6 56.7 319.0 79.0 325.9 90.5 328.5 94.8 327.1 92.5 327.9 93.8 331.6 100.0 331.2 99.3 329.1 95.8 324.8 88.7 0.0 46.8 5.6 47.3 48.9 23.3 50.2 37.8 51.5 52.2 49.3 27.8 48.3 16.7 48.0 13.3 1.1 46.9 5.6 47.3 49.3 27.8 48.3 16.7 5.6 47.3 6.7 47.4 48.1 14.4 49.8 33.3 50.1 36.7 51.0 46.7 50.7 43.3 50.9 45.6 50.8 44.4 50.9 45.6 51.8 55.6 51.9 56.7 51.7 54.4 51.2 48.9 50.2 37.8 51.3 50.0 52.0 57.8 55.2 93.3 55.8 100.0 54.6 86.754.2 82.2 52.2 60.0 55.4 95.6 52.5 63.3 52.0 57.8 50.5 41.1 50.0 35.6 8.9 47.6 8.9 47.6 49.8 33.3 51.1 47.8 53.6 75.6 51.9 56.7 54.4 84.4 53.2 71.1 52.8 66.7 52.2 60.0 53.7 76.7 51.7 54.4 51.8 55.6 Per ct. 17.23 17.04 17.44 17.67 17.77 17.00 16.41 16.27 16.01 16.23 16.87 16.77 16.50 16.56 16.87 17.36 17.40 17.14 17.32 17.47 17.66 17.54 17.80 17.66 17.75 17.43 16.82 17.11 17.37 18.23 18.32 17.84 17.41 16.99 18.42 17.24 17.08 16.64 16.55 15.54 15.64 16.31 16.72 16.80 15.91 16.56 16.27 16.09 15.75 16.22 15.70 15.94 Ratio. 58.7 52.1 66.0 74.0 77.4 50.7 30.2 25.3 16.3 24.0 46.2 42.7 33.3 35.4 46.2 63.2 64.6 55.5 61.8 67.0 73.6 69.4 78.5 73.6 76.7 65.6 44.4 54.5 63.5 93.4 96.5 79.9 64.9 50.3 100.0 59.0 53.5 38.2 35.1 0.0 3.5 26.7 41.0 43.7 12.9 35.4 25.3 19.1 7.3 23.6 5.6 13.9 Relative demand for money. 41.3 47.9 34.0 26.0 22.6 49.3 69.8 74.7 83.7 76.0 53.8 57.3 66.7 64.6 53.8 36.8 35.4 44.5 38.2 33.0 26.4 30.6 21.5 26.4 23.3 34.4 55.6 45.5 36.5 6.6 3.5 20.1 35.1 49.7 0.0 41.0 46.5 61.8 64.9 100.0 96.5 73.3 59.0 56.3 87.1 64.6 74.7 80.9 92.7 76.4 94.4 86.1 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 263 TABLE 5.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the Chicago clearing-house banks, 1899-1908—Continued. [Amounts expressed in millions of dollars.] 1906 1905 Loans. Deposits. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Month and week. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Index number. Index number. InInIndex dex dex Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. number. ber. ber. Jan.— Deposits. Loans. 211.0 203.5 206.2 209.4 210.6 212.1 220.2 213.3 222.2 226.7 230.7 233.2 234.5 233.9 233.3 231.5 232.9 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 233. 9 231. 0 228. 2 225.1 225. 9 May—18 19 20 21 June—22 30 225. 6 226.1 226. 8 228. 3 231. 9 235. 3 234. 5 234. 0 Aug.—31 32 235. 0 234. 3 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 235. 6 235. 4 234. 9 236.1 237.4 241.4 244.5 246.6 247.2 246.0 243.2 240.1 240.1 238.0 236.6 234.5 236.0 235.3 236.9 239.8 23 24 25 27 28 29.. 1 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec—48 49 50 51 52 17.2 0.0 6.2 13.5 16.2 19.7 38.2 22.4 42.8 53.1 62.2 68.0 70.9 69.6 68.2 64.1 67.3 69.6 62.9 56.5 49.4 51.3 50.6 51.7 53.3 56. S 65.0 72.8 70.9 69.8 72.1 70.5 73.5 73.0 71.9 74.6 77.6 86.7 93.8 98.6 100.0 97.3 90.8 83.8 83.8 78.9 75.7 70.9 74.4 72.8 76.4 83.1 1.6 335.1 0.0 334.6 339.1 14.3 339.8 16.6 345.4 34.4 358.6 76.4 365.2 97.5 359.3 78.7 3.65.4 98.1 365.9 99.7 361.1 84.4 356.8 70.7 352.8 58.0 358.4 75.8 353.8 61.2 356.7 70.4 357.4 72.6 359.0 77.7 349. 5 47.5 349. 9 48.7 348. 0 42.7 348.1 43.0 349. 5 47.5 349. 9 48.7 353.6 60.5 354.8 64.3 358. 7 76.8 360. 6 82.8 362. 4 88.5 363. 5 92.0 366. 0 100. 0 364. 0 93.6 362. 7 89.5 363.1 90.8 360. 2 81.5 363.3 91.4 362. 9 90.1 363.8 93.0 364. 2 94.3 365.5 98.4 357.0 71.3 354.1 62.1 358.2 75.2 354.1 62.1 352.7 57.6 352.6 57.3 351.9 55.1 350.3 50.0 352.0 55.4 354.3 62.7 358.8 77.1 362.1 87.6 Ratio. Per ct. 15. 87 53.2 43.4 16.63 55.6 60.1 17.26 58.5 80.4 17.33 58.9 83.2 17.75 61.3 100.0 16.62 59.6 88.1 16.14 59.0 83.9 16.51 59.3 86.0 16.43 60.0 90.9 15.79 57.8 75.5 16.28 58.8 82.5 15.78 56.3 65.0 16.61 58.6 81.1 15. 98 57.3 72.0 15.78 55.8 61.5 15. 94 56.9 69.2 16.15 57-7 74.8 56.2 64.3 15. 64 56.3 65.0 16.10 56.4 65.7 16.13 58.2 78.3 16.73 56.7 67.8 16.29 55.9 62.2 15.99 58.1 77.6 16.60 61.3 100. 0 17.32 61.1 98.6 17.21 58.2 78.3 16.22 58.4 79.7 16.21 60.3 93.0 16. 64 60.4 93.7 16.62 60.2 92.3 16.45 60.3 93.0 16.58 58.8 82.5 16.21 59.7 88.8 16. 44 61.0 97.9 16.95 60.5 94.4 16. 66 60.2 92.3 16. 58 59.8 89.5 16.45 56.1 63.6 1 15.40 54.1 49.7 14.80 52.1 35.7 14.59 51.1 28.7 14. 43 51.9 34.3 14.48 52.1 35.7 14.70 53.1 42.7 15.05 53.7 46.9 15.22 52.8 40.6 15.01 51.4 30.8 14.68 50.8 26.6 14.43 49.1 14.7 13.86 0.0 47.0 13.11 51.3 30.1 14.16 Ratio. 59.5 75.9 89.4 91.0 100.0 75.6 65.3 73.3 71.6 57.8 68.3 57.5 75.4 61.8 57.5 61.0 65.5 54.5 64.4 65.1 78.0 68.5 62.1 75.2 90.7 88.4 ' 67.0 66.8 76.1 75.6 72.0 74.8 66.8 71.8 82.8 76.5 74.8 72.0 49.3 36.4 31.9 28.4 29.5 34.3 41.8 45.5 40.9 33.8 28.4 16.2 0.0 22.6 InInIndex dex dex Relative Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. num- Ratio. demand ber. ber. ber. for money. 40.5 24.1 10.6 9.0 0.0 24.4 34.7 26.7 28.4 42.2 31.7 42.5 24.6 38.2 42.5 39.0 34.5 45.5 35.6 34.9 22.0 31.5 37.9 24. 8 9.3 11.6 33.0 33.2 23.9 24.4 28.0 25.2 ! 33.2 | 28.2 17.2 23.5 25.2 28.0 50.7 63.6 68.1 71.6 70.5 65.7 58.2 54.5 59.1 66.2 71.6 83.8 100.0 77.4 238.5 238.6 240.8 241.9 245.6 248.8 252.7 254.2 256.1 254.4 252.9 251.3 250.0 250.8 254.4 253.8 252.8 255.4 253.2 252.7 249.9 248. 3 246. 3 246. 5 0.0 .5 12.3 18.2 38.0 55.1 75.9 84.0 94.1 85.0 77.0 68.5 61.5 65.8 85.0 81.8 76.5 90.4 78.6 75.9 61.0 52.4 41.7 42.8 248. 5 53.5 250. 9 66.3 253. 4 79.7 253. 6 80.8 254. 0 82.9 251. 2 67.9 249. 5 58.8 250.2 62.6 250.1 62.0 251. 8 71.1 254. 2 j 84.0 254.1 83.4 256. 3 95.2 257.2 100.0 256. 4 95.7 255.9 93.1 255.8 92.5 253.9 82.4 252.6 75.4 251.9 71.7 252.7 75.9 253.2 78.6 253.3 79.1 255.3 89.8 252.4 74.3 252.3 73.8 253.4 79.7 255.8 92.5 366.6 372.1 379.6 381.8 387.0 396.2 395.6 391.8 384.7 383.3 385.4 383.9 381.5 372.0 374.5 373.4 374.4 380.0 373.6 374.9 372.6 375.0 374.1 374.8 380.7 383. 7 387.9 389.1 395.8 398.1 396.4 396.5 • 394.5 392.5 390. 5 392.2 393. 6 380.1 387.0 388.4 387.5 385.7 386.4 383.2 387.0 393.2 388.1 385.1 384.9 384.1 382.1 384.0 0.0 17.5 41.3 48.3 64.8 94.0 92.1 80.0 .57.5 53.0 59.7 54.9 47.3 17.1 25.1 21.6 24.8 42.5 22.2 26.3 19.0 26.7 23.8 26.0 44.8 54.3 67.6 71.4 1 92.7 100.0 94.6 94.9 88.6 ! 82.2 75.9 81.3 85.7 42.9 64.8 69.2 66.3 60.6 62.8 52.7 i 64.8 ! 84.4 68.2 58.7 58.1 55.5 49.2 55.2 Per ct. 0.0 15.35 56.3 16.04 59.7 25.4 16.27 61.7 40.3 16.87 64.4 60.5 16.84 65.2 66.5 16.45 65.2 66.5 16.01 63.4 53.0 15.31 60.0 27.6 15.47 59.5 23.9 15.74 60.3 29.9 15.99 61.6 39.6 16.17 62.1 43.3 16. 32 62.3 44.8 15.80 58.8 18.7 15.41 57.7 10.4 16.06 60.0 27.6 15.89 59.5 23.9 15.73 59.8 26.1 15.69 58.6 17.2 15.52 58.2 14.2 16.12 60.1 28.4 16.16 60.6 32.1 16.08 60.2 29.1 16.85 63.2 51.5 16.31 62.1 43.3 16.19 62.1 43.3 16.19 62.8 48.5 16.85 65.6 69.4 65.8 70.9 16. 62 68.1 88.1 17.12 69.7 100.0 17. 58 68.4 90.3 17.26 68.2 88.8 17.29 66.6 76.9 16.89 66.2 73.9 16.95 63.2 51.5 16.11 62.7 47.8 15.93 60.2 29.1 15.85 61.2 36.6 15. 82 59.2 21.7 15.24 58.7 17.9 15.15 58.9 19.4 15.27 63.2 51.5 | 16.35 62.5 46.3 16.31 62.1 43.3 16.04 61.9 41.8 15.75 60.3 29.9 15.54 60.8 33.6 15.77 60.7 32.9 15.78 58.4 15.7 15.21 57.9 11.9 15.15 58.3 14.9 15.19 Ratio. 8.2 36.7 46.1 70.9 69.6 53.6 35.4 6.6 13.2 24.3 34.6 42.0 48.2 26.8 10.7 37.5 30.5 23.9 22.2 15.2 40.0 41.6 38.3 70.0 47.8 42.8 42.8 70.0 60.6 81.1 100.0 86.9 88.1 •71.6 74.1 39.5 32.1 28.8 27.6 Relative demand for money. 91.8 63.3 53.9 29.1 30.4 46.4 64.6 93.4 86.8 75.7 65.4 58.0 51.8 73.2 89.3 62.5 69.5 76.1 77.8 84.8 60.0 58.4 61.7 30.0 52.2 57.2 57.2 30.0 39.4 18.9 0.0 13.1 11.9 28.4 25.9 60.5 67.9 71.2 72.4 3.7 0.0 4.9 49.4 47.8 36.7 24.7 16.1 25.5 26.0 96.3 100.0 95.1 50.6 52.2 2.5 .0 97 5 100 0 1.7 98 3 63.3 75.3 83.9 74.5 74 0 264 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. TABLE 5.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the Chicago clearing-house 1899-1908—Continued. banks, [ A m o u n t s e x p r e s s e d in millions of dollars.] 1907 Loans. Deposits. 1908« R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of r e s e r v e s t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week. Index number. InInIndex dex dex A m o u n t . num- A m o u n t . num- A m o u n t . num- R a t i o . ber. ber. ber. 255.8 256.9 256.1 259.3 260.6 266.7 269.5 271.8 272.7 276.5 278.2 278.4 279.0 277.3 275.6 271.7 270.0 273.1 276.0 278.4 276.6 276.5 282.4 281.5 278.6 280.9 279.2 278.3 278.5 276.1 275.1 276.0 278.5 278.2 280.0 279.9 281.4 283.0 281.3 279.7 276.7 277.1 279.3 276.0 271.2 270.8 265.1 261.1 258.0 255.0 252.5 250.2 17.1 20.4 18.0 27.7 31.7 50.3 58.8 65.8 68.6 80.2 85.4 86.0 87.8 82.6 77.4 65.5 60.4 69.8 78.7 86.0 80.5 80.2 98.2 95.4 86.6 93.6 88.4 85.7 86.3 79.0 75.9 78.7 86.3 85.4 90.9 90.6 95.1 100.0 94.8 89.9 80.8 82.0 88.7 78.7 64.0 62.8 45.4 33.2 23.8 14.6 7.0 0.0 384.1 391.9 396.9 405.2 411.6 415.8 413.7 410.3 413.8 415.8 408.5 403.0 400.5 400.6 398.3 401.4 406.3 417.0 417.9 417.7 413.6 415.9 423.2 416.6 412.8 418.1 415.1 406.3 403.4 405.9 406.4 411.2 408.6 408.7 409.2 406.3 406.1 404.2 406.2 405.2 402.8 398.9 391.6 384.3 376.8 372.4 370.5 371.1 369.8 363.4 363.2 358.9 39.2 51.3 59.1 72.0 82.0 88.5 85.2 79.9 85.4 88.5 77.1 68.6 64.7 64.9 61.3 66.1 73.7 90.4 91.8 91.5 85.1 88.6 100.0 89.7 83.8 92.1 87.4 73.7 69.2 73.1 73.9 81.3 77.3 77.5 78.2 73.7 73.4 70.5 73.6 72.0 68.3 62.2 50.9 39.5 27.8 21.0 18.0 19.0 16.9 7.0 6.7 0.0 58.7 64.9 68.1 68.1 69.6 66.8 65.3 63.7 63.5 66.8 63.2 61.6 59.2 60.1 60.5 63.5 67.9 72.5 72.0 70.7 70.6 68.7 68.2 65.7 67.3 69.4 65.6 63.7 66.1 69.5 70.8 72.1 70.8 70.3 68.3 67.7 63.9 62.3 63.4 62.7 62.8 59.0 54.5 53.9 55.7 55.8 58.1 63.8 65.3 65.6 66.5 69.0 25.8 59.1 76.3 76.3 84.4 69.4 61.3 52.7 51.6 69.4 50.0 41.4 28.5 33.3 35.5 51.6 75.3 100.0 97.3 90.3 89.8 79.6 76.9 63.4 72.0 83.3 62.9 52.7 65.6 83.9 90.9 97.9 90.9 88.2 77.4 74.2 53.8 45.2 51.1 47.3 47.9 27.4 3.2 0.0 9.7 10.2 22.6 53.2 61.3 62.9 67.7 81.2 Per ct. 15.27 16.57 17.16 16.80 16.90 16.06 15.78 15.51 15.35 16.07 15.47 15.27 14.78 15.01 15.18 15.82 16.70 17.38 17.22 16.92 17.06 16.52 16.11 15.78 16.31 16.59 15.80 15.68 16.39 17.13 17.42 17.54 17.34 17.21 16.69 16.66 15.74 15.41 15.60 15.49 15.60 14.79 13.93 14.03 14.78 14.98 15.68 17.20 17.66 18.06 18.32 19.22 Ratio. 25.3 49.9 61.1 54.2 56.1 40.3 35.0 29.9 26.8 40.4 29.1 25.3 16.1 20.4 23.6 35.7 52.4 65.2 62.2 56.5 59.2 49.0 41.2 35.0 45.0 50.3 35.3 33.1 46.5 60.5 66.0 68.2 64.5 62.0 52.2 51.6 34.2 28.0 31.6 29.5 31.6 16.3 0.0 1.9 16.1 19.8 33.1 61.8 70.5 78.1 83.0 100.0 Index number. InR e l a t i v e A m o u n t . nduemx demand ber. for money. 74.7 50.1 38.9 45.8 43.9 59.7 65.0 70.1 73.2 59.6 70.9 74.7 83.9 79.6 76.4 64.3 47.6 34.8 37.8 43.5 40.8 51.0 58.8 65.0 55.0 49.7 64.7 66.9 53.5 39.5 34.0 31.8 35.5 38.0 47.8 48.4 65.8 72.0 68.4 70.5 68.4 83.7 100.0 98.1 83.9 80.2 66.9 38.2 29.5 21.9 17.0 0.0 247.3 12.3 244.0 1.6 243.5 0.0 246.3 9.1 250.2 21.7 252.5 29.1 252.6 29.5 251.7 26.6 254.1 34.3 255.2 37.9 257.3 44.7 256.4 41.8 257.1 44.0 258.8 49.5 258.9 49.9 257.0 43.7 258.8 49.5 257.3 44.7 257.9 46.6 256.9 43.4 256.7 42.7 256.2 41.1 258.2 47.6 259.8 52.8 261.7 58.9 263.7 65.4 263.4 64.4 264.4 67.6 264.0 66.3 262.7 62.1 262.9 62.8 265.3 70.6 267.3 77.0 266.7 75.1 268.8 81.9 267.2 76.7 266.5 74.4 267.0 76.1 267.1 76.4 267.6 78.0 266.8 75.4 267.1 76.4 266.5 74.4 266.3 73.8 265.4 70.9 266.5 74.4 265.2 70.2 266.1 73.1 266.3 73.8 268.9 82.2 271.8 91.6 274.4 100.0 InIndex dex num- A m o u n t . num- Ratio. ber. ber. 363.3 0.0 371.8 9.4 381.2 19.7 389.5 28.9 402.8 43.5 403.7 44.5 408.1 49.3 411.5 53.1 420.9 63.4 420.3 62.8 424.5 67.4 422.8 65.5 420.3 62.8 425.3 68.3 424.8 67.7 425.3 68.3 421.4 64.0 427.4 70.6 426.0 69.1 426.1 69.2 424.5 67.4 429.6 73.0 431.8 75.4 433.0 76.8 433.5 77.3 431.6 75.2 433.7 77.5 434.5 78.4 434.5 78.4 433.4 77.2 437.4 81.6 442.8 87.6 448.9 94.3 445.4 90.4 444.4 89.3 443.1 87.9 446.4 91.5 445.9 91.0 441.6 86.2 440.8 85.4 444.1 89.0 446.2 91.3 442.9 87.7 442.5 87.2 442.9 87.7 443.9 88.8 444.4 89.3 446.9 92.1 445.9 91.0 450.9 96.5 454.1 100.0 448.1 93.4 a A v e r a g e figures for t h e p e r i o d 1899-1908 are g i v e n i n T a b l e V of t h e T e x t ( p . 31). 71.5 0.0 74.8 22.0 76.0 30.0 77.4 39.3 79.1 50.7 78.2 44.7 79.2 51.3 80.3 58.7 80.7 61.3 81.2 64.7 84.4 86.0 85.0 90.0 84.2 84.7 80.7 61.3 81.6 67.3 84.2 84.7 81.6 67.3 78.3 45.3 79.0 50.0 82.2 71.3 84.3 85.3 85.5 93.3 86.5 100.0 85.4 92.7 86.2 98.0 85.6 94.0 83.8 82.0 83.7 81.3 82.0 70.0 85.6 94.0 84.9 89.3 84.4 86.0 82.8 75.3 83.5 80.0 83.6 80.7 80.8 62.0 80.7 61.3 78.9 49.3 78.3 45.3 79.0 50.0 80.3 58.7 81.8 68.7 81.3 65.3 77.5 40.0 77.1 37.3 77.5 40.0 78.7 48.0 76.5 33.3 77.1 37.3 78.5 46.7 79.8 55.3 79.7 54.7 Per ct. 19.68 20.13 19.94 19.87 19.63 19.36 19.42 19.53 19.16 19.32 19.89 20.09 20.02 18.97 19.20 19.80 19.38 18.32 18.55 19.30 19.85 19.91 20.03 19.73 19.88 19.82 19.32 19.25 18.88 19.74 19.41 19.07 18.44 18.76 18.81 18.24 18.08 17.69 17.73 17.93 18.08 18.32 18.37 17.51 17.40 17.46 17.70 17.12 17.30 17.40 17.57 17.80 Ratio. 85.1 100.0 93.7 91.4 83.4 74.4 76.4 80.1 67.8 73.1 92.0 98.7 96.4 61.5 69.1 89.0 75.1 39.9 47.5 72.4 90.7 92.7 96.7 86.7 91.7 89.7 73.1 70.8 58.5 87.1 76.1 64.8 43.9 54.5 56.1 37.2 31.9 18.9 20.3 26.9 31.9 39.9 41.5 13.0 9.3 11.3 19.3 0.0 16.0 9.3 4.9 22.6 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. A P P E N D I X T>.—ST. L O U I S CLEARING H O U S E B A N K S , 265 1899-1908. TABLE 6.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves,and the ratio of reserves todeposits, of the St. Louis clearing-house banks. 1899-1908° [ A m o u n t s ex pressed in millions of dollars.] 1900 1899 Loans. Deposits. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. M o n t h a n d week.fc 1 2 3 33.3 32.7 34.2 34.7 40.6 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 40.3 41.1 41.8 43.8 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 43.3 43.7 43.4 12 Apr.— 13 14 15 16 43.8 44.9 45.2 45.8 46.2 17 May— 18 42.4 19 20 21 June—22 45.8 46.3 46.3 46.1 23 24 47.0 46.8 47.2 25 2.9 0.0 7.4 9.8 38.7 37.2 41.2 44.6 54.4 51.9 53.9 52.4 54.4 59.8 61.3 64.2 66.2 47.5 64.2 10.8 10.7 11.0 10.2 75.0 68.0 80.3 78.9 78.4 83.6 10.0 9.9 10.2 56.8 54.5 61.4 9.7 10.0 10.4 10.6 50.0 56.8 65.8 70.4 10.8 10.0 10.8 74.9 56.8 75.0 72.7 79.5 67.7 67.6 68.7 68.7 69.1 68.9 68.6 63.5 70.4 71.1 67.1 79.4 81.3 70.8 68.7 68.4 45 46 51.1 51.0 51.3 89.7 91.1 50.8 50.2 88.7 85.8 51.2 51.1 51.2 68.1 77.5 85.0 79.8 69.1 92.6 91.6 90.2 51 52 65.4 67.4 69.0 67.9 69.5 69.2 51.6 51.4 49 50 7.7 8.5 8.4 8.5 10.5 65.7 70.1 43 Nov.— 44 50.9 50.9 50.7 50.6 51.0 51.2 52.2 0.0 8.4 12.7 17.4 67.6 66.6 66.6 87.7 89.7 90.7 95.6 52.9 99.0 52.8 98.5 53.1 100.0 52.6 97.5 46.4 48.9 49.3 49.7 50.0 50.6 50.9 52.7 53.6 54.6 65.3 69.3 67.8 67.5 July— 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 47 D e c — 48 Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. Index number. InInInAmount. dex Amount. dex Amount. dex Ratio. numnumnumber, c ber, c ber, c Jan.— Loans. 4' 83.3 84.8 87.7 89.2 89.2 88.2 83.6 85.5 84.5 83.1 59.2 86.4 79.3 77.9 87.3 85.9 91.6 10.7 11.0 11.1 4.5 22.7 20.5 22.7 68.2 72.7 79.5 61.4 81.8 Per ct. 15.17 16.15 15.69 15.57 16.08 16.36 15.87 15.94 15.04 14.71 14.64 15.09 14.12 14.52 15.02 15.43 15.76 15.77 15.54 15.63 16.15 15.98 16.64 85.0 93.4 83.6 82.2 11.5 90.9 11.9 100.0 11.3 86.4 11.2 84.1 11.1 81.8 11.6 93.2 15.68 16.01 16.81 77.0 76.1 11.8 11.3 97.7 83.4 17.53 16.84 80.8 10.1 59.1 70.5 92.0 70.7 93.0 69.8 88.7 71.2 95.3 72.2 100.0 71.4 96.2 69.0 85.0 65.7 69.5 63.4 58.7 62.7 55.4 52.3 45.5 45.5 14.85 13.90 13.44 13.48 14.18 14.14 13.58 12.89 11.41 12.46 11.96 12.15 69.0 67.3 67.1 68.1 60.9 46.9 9.8 9.5 9.5 10.2 10.2 9.7 8.9 7.6 8.0 7.5 7.5 61.5 61.2 49.8 48.4 8.6 8.7 62.4 54.0 58.7 59.2 61.4 61.4 50.0 31.8 2.3 11.4 0.0 0.0 Per ct. 14.04 14.70 14.63 14.59 13.18 39.3 55.7 54.0 53.0 17.9 46.0 47.0 82.1 21.7 60.9 78.3 39.1 13.88 15.20 15.57 14.06 35.3 68.2 77.4 39.8 64.7 31.8 22.6 60.2 73.9 69.6 15.08 15.33 65.2 34.8 71.4 60.9 65.2 65.2 52.2 14.09 15.06 14.95 40.6 28.6 59.4 64.7 61.9 53.0 35.3 38.1 47.0 100.0 95.0 0.0 5.0 85.3 14 7 3.5 61.4 38.6 77.5 22.5 69.9 30.1 68.0 32.0 76.3 80.9 72.9 74.0 59.3 23.7 19.1 27.1 26.0 40.7 53.9 52.8 60.1 44.3 50.8 59.0 46.1 47.2 51.5 51.6 39.9 65.7 71.1 71.2 67.5 69.0 77.5 55.7 49.2 41.0 34.3 28.9 28.8 32.5 31.0 51.3 51.6 51.7 52.1 52.1 11.6 18.6 20.9 30.2 30.2 64.4 64.9 65.0 66.0 66.6 0.0 4.5 5.4 14.3 19.6 52.1 52.4 52.4 52.8 30.2 46.5 66.8 67.0 68.4 69.4 21.4 23.2 35.7 44.6 16.3 18.6 69.9 68.2 49.1 52.3 52.6 53.0 52.4 34.9 41.9 51.2 68.1 68.5 69.3 37.2 52.3 34.9 25.6 68.6 68.2 51.9 51.3 51.4 37.2 37.2 11.6 14.0 67.8 68.0 67.4 66.9 67.0 66.8 66.9 65.8 10.1 10.3 56.5 65.2 17.9 33.0 20.5 19.6 9.7 9.6 39 1 10.4 10.0 11 6 16.1 10 4 10.1 67.6 68.5 69.6 69.0 69.2 68.1 67.6 67 5 69 2 69 3 69.2 28.6 36.6 46 4 41.1 42.9 10.0 10.7 10 5 10.0 9 4 9 0 9 0 8 9 9 1 9 2 9 5 13 0 17 4 30 4 69.3 69 0 72.7 43.8 41 1 9 8 10 2 43 5 60 9 74.1 73 9 73 4 84 8 80 4 11.0 95 7 11 1 100 0 10 5 73 9 10 0 52 2 79.1 69.8 75.2 20.9 30.2 4.7 14.0 9.3 2.3 9.3 20.9 32.6 66.3 66.4 68.1 66.7 39.5 51.2 55.8 46.5 67.4 72.1 81.4 79.1 74.4 76.8 72.1 65.1 35.5 24.2 0.0 17.2 25.3 12.1 59.3 66.8 66.2 54.7 55.4 64.5 75.8 100.0 82.8 74.7 87.9 52.5 53.0 53.2 52.8 53.7 53.9 54.3 54.2 54.0 54.1 66.6 65.7 66.2 33.0 28.6 27 7 42 9 43 8 42 9 42.0 43.1 58.0 27.3 45.5 13.78 16.27 52.3 65.9 15.30 15.79 38.7 79.4 63.6 61.3 20 6 36.4 71.6 28.4 53 0 52.6 52.7 44.2 74 5 90 2 15.64 69.1 30.9 52.3 34.9 75 2 96 4 12.48 12.34 17.5 15.2 82.5 53.2 84.8 53.4 55.8 60.5 75.6 100 0 74.7 92 0 14.80 55.4 44.6 55.1 100.0 67.6 60.6 10.0 90.7 90.2 62.4 8.1 56.8 13.6 62.4 90.7 63.5 54.0 59.2 7.7 9.4 4.6 43.2 56 9 53.9 53.6 53 6 53.2 65 1 55.8 51 2 41.9 10.8 11.0 95.7 87.0 12.5 17.0 20.9 0.0 40.7 33.2 33.8 45.3 44.6 11.0 69.6 52.2 51.7 50.8 51.0 43.8 10.0 10.4 10.0 14.5 10.3 51.7 52.2 10.3 10.3 22.3 85.5 89.7 50.9 51.2 9.7 10.5 10.4 10.2 21.4 74.7 4.7 4.7 88.2 8.8 9.3 10.2 10.6 8.7 30.4 30.4 34.8 11.0 10.5 10.0 14.0 51.0 51.0 100.0 88.7 56.2 37.5 33.9 30.4 32.1 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.6 95.7 95.7 73.9 52.2 51.4 24.8 11.8 0.0 11.3 43.8 26.8 22.3 23.2 22.5 25.3 51.4 51.2 33.9 33.0 36.6 13.98 14.05 63.8 64.2 63.1 16.25 Ratio. 0.0 25.0 27.3 8.7 9.5 9.8 10.4 63.5 65.3 16.90 Relative Ratio, c demand for m o n e y .d Index number. InInInAmount. dex Amount. dex Amount. dex Ratio. numnumnumber, c ber, c ber, c 75.1 95.5 34.8 69 6 52.2 69 6 56.5 52.2 82.6 73 9 52 2 26 8 8 4 1 7 7 3 11 1 100 0 10 1 56 5 9 3 21 7 9.4 26.1 14.59 16.48 16.28 15.89 16.34 16.42 15.68 15.06 15.00 15.33 96.5 98.5 80.1 64.7 63.2 71.4 76.9 Relative demand for money A 60.7 44.3 1 5 19 9 35.3 36.8 28.6 23 1 15.55 14.60 14.18 15.61 15.09 53 2 42.8 78 4 65.4 46 8 57 2 21 6 15.85 15.35 84 3 71.9 14.86 15.60 15 15 59.7 78.1 66 9 52 7 15.7 28 1 40.3 21 9 14.58 13 61 13 18 13 75 13 14 13 13 13 31 28 17 32 16 16 21 13 79 14 23 33 1 44 0 14 80 15 15 15 02 58 2 6 9 1 9 7 1 66 9 34 6 33 47 71 82 1 3 4 1 67.9 83.1 83.3 78.9 66.9 56 0 41.8 33 1 36.3 54 0 13 49 63 7 46 0 25 6 14 80 58 2 13 37 12 46 22 6 0 0 41.8 77.4 100 0 12.59 32.3 67 7 14 31 74 4 a T h e figures for arn o u n t s w e re colle c t e d direcl:ly froin t h e St. Ivouis c earing-h ouse b a c ks b y t h e N a t i o n a l I [oneta ry Commis sion. & T h e schedule of ua o n t h s is t a s e d u p o n a year in w h ich J a n u a r y 1st falls u p o a t h e firs t d a y of t h e week. \Veekly figures ha ve bee n adjusted t o th<3 nearest c o m p l e t e 52 weeks each year. c T h e s e i n d e x n u mibers are cc>mput( 3d b y coun t i n g t lle m a x i m u m wee k 100, tb e m i n i mu m week C , a n d p r o r ating th e o t h e r w eeks. d T h e s e i n d e x n u mLbers are t lle exa<3t reverse of t h e se in t h e prece l i n g colu m n , arid t h e suin of t w o il u m b e rs for each week equals 100 . The w e e k o f m i n i m um ratio o* reserves t o deposits, rep r e s e n t i n g t h e la rgest relati ve d e nl a n d for m o n e y , is t a k e n as 100; 1the week o f m a x i m u :m r a t k) of reser ves to deposits, repres enting tll e smalle 3t r e l a t i v e d e m a n d for m o n e y , is t a k e n as 0 a n d t tie o t h e r w eeks ai e p r o r a t e d . Cf. p p . 13-1£ NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 266 TABLE 6.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the St. Louis clearing-house 1899-1908 «—Continued. banks, [ A m o u n t s expressed in millions of dollars.] 1901 Loans. Deposits. 1902 Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week.& Loans. Deposits. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Index number. |Index! Index| Amount. num- Amount. numbers ber, c Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . Mar.— 9 . 10. 11 . 12 . Apr.—13 . 14 , 15 16 . 17 . May— 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 D e c — 48 49 50 51 52 55.5 7.3 55.0 4.7 54.5 2.1 54.2 0.5 54.1 0.0 54.4 1 6 56.4 12.0 55.5 7.3 55.6 7.8 56.1 10.4 56.4 12.0 57.3 16.7 59.0 25.5 59.8 29.7 59.8 29.7 61.0 35.9 61.0 35.9 60.7 34.4 63.3 47.9 66.4 64.1 65.9 61.5 66.5 64.6 65.0 56.8 69.3 79.2 68.9 77.1 70.9 87.5 67.4 69.3 69.9 82.3 70. 2 83.9 69.5 80.2 69.3 79.2 69.2 78.7 69.7 81.3 69.8 81.8 69.6 80.7 69.6 80.7 71.0 88.0 71.4 90.1 71.1 88.6 70.7 86.5 70.0 82.8 69.4 79.7 69.3 79.2 69.4 79.7 69.4 79.7 69.2 78.7 70.9 87.5 70.8 87.0 71.5 90.6 72.0 93.2 73.3 100.0 72.1 93.8 77.2 0.0 9.7 78.6 81.4 29.2 81.1 27.1 82.5 36.8 82.6 37.5 85.2 55.6 85.9 60.4 85.1 54.9 85.8 59.7 86.4 63.9 85.7 59.0 89.6 86.1 88.2 76.4 88.5 78.5 85.2 55.6 86.0 61.1 84.2 48.6 82.8 38.9 84.7 52.1 82.6 37.5 83.2 41.7 84.6 51.4 88.2 76.4 87.9 74.3 91.6 100.0 86.2 62.5 86.9 67.4 85.6 58.3 84.9 53.5 84.9 53.5 85.0 54.2 85.7 59.0 86.2 62.5 86.4 63.9 89.7 86.8 86.5 64.6 86.9 67.4 84.6 51.4 86.0 61.1 85.0 54.2 84.5 50.7 84.2 48.6 85.7 59.0 85.1 54.9 84.4 50.0 85.9 60.4 86.2 62.5 86.2 62.5 85.9 60.4 85.7 59.0 84.9 53.5 Index! num- Ratio. ber, c 11.3 12.1 11.6 10.7 10.7 10.4 12.2 11.9 12.4 12.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.3 11.6 11.8 11.9 11.6 10.3 10.8 11.5 11.6 11.1 10.9 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.1 11.0 11.1 11.2 10.5 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.1 10.0 10.2 9.7 9.8 10.7 11.4 12.0 11.2 10.9 10.3 10.2 9.4 12.9 61.3 87.1 71.0 41.9 41.9 32.3 90,3 80.6 96.8 100.0 45.2 51.6 61.3 67.7 77.4 93.5 71.0 77.4 80.6 71.0 29.0 45.2 67.7 71.0 54.8 48.4 61.3 51.6 41.9 22.6 51.6 54.8 58.1 35.5 25.8 25.8 29.0 32.3 22.6 19.4 25.8 9.7 12.9 42.0 64.5 83.9 58.1 48.4 29.0 25.8 0.0 Per ct. 12.71 14.24 14.86 14.32 12.96 12. 83 12.22 14.20 14.00 14.35 14.46 12.38 12.16 12.69 12.88 13.74 14.18 13.67 14.26 13.94 14.04 12.39 12.78 13.05 13.19 12.00 12.52 12.88 12.86 12.48 11.91 12.95 12.85 12.99 12.15 11.38 11.79 11.73 12.29 11.62 11.76 11.-96 11.52 11.33 12.57 13.52 13.96 12.99 12.52 11.99 11.91 11 07 Ratio, c 43.3 83.7 100.0 85.8 49.9 46.4 30.3 82.6 77.3 86.6 89.5 34.6 28.8 42.8 47.8 70.5 82.1 68.6 84.2 75.7 78.4 34.8 45.1 52.2 55.9 24.5 38.3 47.8 47.2 37.2 22.2 49.6 47.0 50.7 28.5 8.2 19.0 17.4 32.2 14.5 18.2 23.5 11.9 6.9 39.6 64.7 76.3 50.7 38.3 24.3 22.2 0.0 Relative demand for m o n e y .d 56.7 16.3 0.0 14.2 50.1 53.6 69.7 17.4 22.7 13.4 10.5 65.4 71.2 57.2 52.2 29.5 17.9 31.4 15.8 24.3 21.6 65.2 54.9 47.8 44.1 75.5 61.7 52.2 52.8 62.8 77.8 50.4 53.0 49.3 71.5 91.8 81.0 82.6 67.8 85.5 81.8 76.5 88.1 93.1 60.4 35.3 23.7 49.3 61.7 75.7 77.8 100.0 Index number. Index] number, c 71.5 5.1 71.4 4.8 71.9 6.3 69.8 0.0 70.3 1.5 71.1 3.9 71.3 4.5 71.6 5.4 71.9 6.3 72.2 7.2 73.0 9.6 74.0 12.7 75.8 18.1 75.2 16.3 75.3 16.6 75.3 16.6 75.8 18.1 85.3 46.7 84.2 43.4 84.7 44.9 86.0 48.8 96.0 78.9 94.2 73.5 94.8 75.3 96.4 80.1 96.9 81.6 98.7 87.0 98.1 85.2 97.4 83.1 97.9 84.6 97.4 83.1 97.5 83.4 97.6 83.7 99.8 90.4 98.9 87.7 99.3 88.9 100.0 91.0 101.6 95.8 102.5 98.5 101.9 96.7 101.9 96.7 101.3 94.9 100.7 93.1 100.8 93.4 100.6 92.8 100.9 93.7 101.1 94.3 101.2 94.6 102.0 97.0 102.1 97.3 102.4 98.2 103.0 100.0 Indexl Index| num- Amount. num- Ratio. ber, c ber, c 86.9 6.5 87.9 9.4 86.6 5.6 84.7 0.0 86.4 5.0 88.5 11.2 89.2 13.3 90.5 17.1 90.6 17.4 92.0 2 L 5 91.0 18.6 91.8 20.9 91.2 19.2 90.6 17.4 89.9 15.3 91.4 19.8 92.6 23.3 102.7 53.1 100.0 45.1 100.1 45.4 98.9 41.9 116.4 93.5 113.9 86.1 114.2 87.0 113.6 85.3 114.6 88.2 113.5 85.0 114.6 88.2 114.5 87.9 113.9 86.1 116.2 92.9 114.2 87.0 114.6 88.2 116.0 92.3 115.9 92.0 117.2 95.9 118.6 100.0 115.1 89.7 114.3 87.3 114.2 87.0 113.9 86.1 112.7 82.6 112.9 83.2 114.9 89.1 116.5 93.8 116.2 92.9 115.0 89.4 117.8 97.6 118.3 99.1 117.1 95.6 116.8 94.7 118.3 99.1 10.0 0.0 11.4 23.3 10.9 15.0 11.1 18.3 10.7 11.7 11.3 21.7 11.4 23.3 10.7 11.7 10.8 13.3 12.2 36.7 11.9 31.7 11.4 23.3 10.4 6.7 10.0 0.0 10.7 11.7 11.0 16.7 10.8 13.3 11.6 26.7 11.9 31.7 11.9 31.7 11.7 28.3 13.6 60.0 12.8 46.7 13.3 55.0 13.5 58.3 14.3 71.6 14.1 68.3 14.7 78.3 14.4 73.3 14.2 70.0 13.9 65.0 14.7 78.3 15.5 91.6 16.0 100.0 14.6 76.7 14.5 75.0 14.7 78.3 13.7 61.7 13.8 63.3 12.6 43.3 12.8 46.7 12.9 48.3 13.1 51.7 12.2 36.7 13.4 56.7 14.3 71.6 14.6 76.7 15.6 93.3 15.8 96.7 15.8 96.7 15.1 85.0 15.2 86.7 Per ct. 11.50 12.97 12.58 12.98 12.26 12. 65 12.78 11.71 11.81 13.26 12.96 12.41 11.40 10.93 11.91 12.03 11.67 11.29 11.81 11.78 11.72 11.59 11.16 11.64 11.79 12.39 12.42 12.82 12.50 12.37 11.96 12.87 13.52 13.80 12.58 12.38 12.40 11.82 12.08 10.95 11.23 11.44 11.52 10.61 11.50 12.30 12.69 13.15 13.27 13.40 12.92 12.77 Ratio. 27.9 74.0 61.8 74.3 51.7 64.0 68.0 34.5 37.6 83.1 73.7 56.4 24.8 10.0 40.8 44.5 33.2 21.3 37.6 36.7 34.8 30.7 17.2 32.3 37.0 55.8 56.7 69.3 59.2 55.2 42.3 70.9 91.2 100.0 61.8 55.5 56.1 37.9 46.1 10.7 19.4 26.0 28.5 0.0 27.9 53.0 65.2 79.6 83.4 87.5 72.4 67.7 Relative demand for m o n e y .d 72.1 26.0 38.2 25.7 48.3 36.0 32.0 65.5 62.4 16.9 26.3 43.6 75.2 90.0 59.2 55.5 66.8 78.7 62.4 63.3 65.2 69.3 82.8 67.7 63.0 44.2 43.3 30.7 40.8 44.8 57.7 29.1 8.8 0.0 38.2 44.5 43.9 62.1 53.9 89.3 80.6 74.0 71.5 100.0 72.1 47.0 34.8 20.4 16. C 12.5 27.6 32.3 a T h e figures for a m o u n t s were collected directly from t h e St. L o u i s clearing-house b a n k s b y t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission. b T h e schedule of m o n t h s is based u p o n a year in w h i c h J a n u a r y 1st falls u p o n t h e first d a y of t h e week. W e e k l y figures h a v e b e e n a d j u s t e d t o t h e nearest c o m p l e t e 52 weeks each year. c T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s are c o m p u t e d b y c o u n t i n g t h e m a x i m u m week 100, t h e m i n i m u m w e e k 0, a n d p r o r a t i n g t h e o t h e r weeks. d These i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e e x a c t reverse of t h o s e i n t h e preceding c o l u m n , a n d t h e s u m of t w o n u m b e r s for each w e e k e q u a l s 100. T h e w e e k of m i n i m u m r a t i o of reserves t o deposits, representing t h e largest relative d e m a n d for m o n e y , is t a k e n as 100; t h e w e e k of m a x i m u m ratio of reserves t o deposits, r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e smallest r e l a t i v e d e m a n d for m o n e y , is t a k e n as 0, a n d t h e o t h e r weeks are p r o r a t e d . Cf. p p . 13-15. 267 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. TABLE 6.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the St. Louis clearing-house 1899-1908—Continued. banks, [ A m o u n t s expressed in millions of dollars.] 1903 Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. Month and week. Feb.- Mar.— 9 . 10. 11 . 12. Apr.—13 . 14. 15. 16. 17. May— 1 8 . 19. 20. 21. J u n e — 22 . 23. 24 . 25. J u l y — 26 . 27. 28. 29. 30. Aug.—31 . 32 . 33 . 34 . Sept.—35 . 36 . 37 . 38. 39 . Oct.— 40 . 41 . 42 . 43 . Nov.—44 . 45. 46. 47. Dec— 48.. 49 .. 50.. 51 . . 52 . . Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. Index number. Index number. Index num- Ratio. ber. Index Index| A m o u n t . num- A m o u n t . n u m ber. ber. Jan.- Loans. 49.5 103. 52.4 103. 60.2 104. 46.6 102. 35.9 101. 43.7 102. 37.9 101. 44.7 102. 52.4 103. 66.0 104. 72.8 105. 69.9 105. 87.4 107. 93.2 107. 99.0 108. 86.4 106. 84.5 106. 97.1 108. 90.3 107. 82.5 106. 57.3 103. 56.3 103. 51.5 103. 65.0 104. 73.8 105. 67.0 104. 70.9 105. 85.4 106. 90.3 107. 95.1 107. 85.4 106. 84.5 106. 95.1 107. 108. 1 98.1 107. 7 94.2 107. 8 95.1 108. 2 99.0 108. 1 98.1 108. 3 100.0 107. 5 92.2 107. 2 89.3 107. 1 88.3 106. 3 80.6 103. 7 55.3 102. 2 40.8 100. 7 26.2 100. 4 23.3 99.3 12.6 99.8 17.5 99.5 14.6 6.8 98.7 0.0 98.0 117.9 117.8 121.3 118.9 120.8 122.5 123.6 124.8 125.4 128.8 127.4 126.7 126.6 126.0 128.3 125.8 125.3 129.8 127.2 126.1 124.3 126.5 124.9 124.9 123.6 122.0 123.7 123.5 121.9 118.5 117.4 116.9 117.5 117.3 117.8 118.6 117.4 114.2 113.9 116.3 115.4 114.6 111.2 110.7 113.2 113.7 114.3 114.0 113.7 114.9 113.8 117.0 37.7 37.2 55.5 42.9 52.9 61.8 67.5 73.8 77.0 94.8 87.4 83.8 83.3 80.1 92.2 79.1 76.4 100.0 86.4 80.6 71.2 82.7 74.3 74.3 67.5 59.2 68.1 67.0 58.6 40.8 35.1 32.5 35.6 34.6 37.2 41.4 35.1 18.3 16.8 29.3 24.6 20.4 2.6 0.0 13.1 15.7 18.8 17.3 15.7 22.0 16.2 33.0 15.4 16.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 17.0 16.4 17.0 16.3 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.5 16.6 15.8 16.1 17.3 17.2 17.7 17.6 17.8 17.2 16.5 15.4 16.4 15.6 15.0 14.9 14.2 15.2 14.7 14.8 13.3 14.0 13.5 12.3 11.4 13.2 13.3 12.0 11.1 14.7 15.6 15.4 15.6 15.9 15.5 15.2 14.6 15.5 64.2 73.1 61.2 64.2 68.7 73.1 79.1 88.1 79.1 88.1 77.6 83.6 80.6 79.1 80.6 82.1 70.2 74.6 92.5 91.0 98.5 97.0 100.0 91.0 80.6 64.2 79.1 67.2 58.2 56.7 46.3 61.2 53.7 55.2 32.8 43.3 35.8 17.9 4.5 31.3 32.8 13.4 0.0 53.7 67.2 64.2 67.2 71.6 65.7 61.2 52.2 65.7 Per ct. 13.07 13.58 12.53 12.88 12.87 12.99 13.27 13.54 13.07 13.19 12.79 13.19 13.03 13.01 12.86 13.19 12.60 12.40 13.61 13.65 14.23 13.82 14.17 13.78 13.33 12.62 13.09 12.55 12.23 12.50 12.08 12.91 12.51 12.61 11.28 11.81 11.41 10.77 10.00 11.34 11.43 10.48 9.98 13.29 13.78 13.55 13.64 13.94 13.63 13.22 12.82 12.91 Ratio. 72.7 84.7 60.0 68.2 67.9 70.8 77.4 83.8 72.7 75.5 66.1 75.5 71.8 71.3 67.8 75.5 61.6 56.9 85.4 86.4 100.0 90.4 98.6 89.4 78.8 62.1 73.2 60.5 52.9 59.3 49.4 68.9 59.5 61.9 30.6 43.1 33.6 18.6 0.5 32.0 34.1 11.8 0.0 77.9 89.4 84.0 86.1 93.2 85.9 76.2 66.8 Relative demand for money. 27.3 15.3 40.0 31.8 32.1 29.2 22.6 16.2 27.3 24.5 33.9 24.5 28.2 28.7 32.2 24.5 38.4 43.1 14.6 13.6 0.0 9.6 1.4 10.6 21.2 37.9 26.8 39.5 47.1 40.7 50.6 31.1 40.5 38.1 69.4 56.9 66.4 81.4 99.5 68.0 65.9 88.2 100.0 22.1 10.6 16.0 13.9 6.8 14.1 23.8 33.2 31.1 Index Amount. number. 97.2 98.0 95.4 96.9 97.6 101.3 102.6 103.9 102.9 102.7 102.4 101.2 102.8 100.8 101.7 101.6 100.9 103.1 103.2 103.3 103.9 104.6 101.7 101.1 100.5 99.5 100.2 101.2 100.6 101.6 101.0 101.3 101.9 102.6 101.8 101.0 101.5 101.3 100.6 101.2 101.1 102.7 101.4 100.9 101.0 102.2 102.1 103.4 103.0 37.0 29.3 16.3 19.6 28.3 0.0 16.3 23.9 64.1 78.3 92.4 81.5 79.4 76.1 63.0 80.4 58.7 68.5 67.4 59.8 83.7 84.8 85.9 92.4 100.0 68.5 62.0 55.4 44.6 52.2 63.0 56.5 67.4 60.9 64.1 70.7 78.3 69.6 60.9 66.3 64.1 56.5 63.0 62.0 79.3 65.2 59.8 60.9 73.9 72.8 87.0 82.6 Index] number. 122.6 121.8 126.4 127.4 127.1 128.3 129.6 129.0 135.1 134.2 132.2 129.5 129.5 128.9 128.7 128.4 126.5 126.3 126.9 128.7 130.7 135.2 134.4 131.5 131.4 129.4 131.2 130.1 130.5 130.1 131.7 130.5 130.8 131.8 134.1 133.7 134.3 133.6 133.3 134.2 137.2 136.7 140.7 142.8 145.2 146.0 147.2 149.4 151.6 147.2 147.7 147.7 2.7 0.0 15.4 18.8 17.8 21.8 26.2 24.2 44.6 41.6 34.9 25.8 25.8 23.8 23.2 22.1 15.8 15.1 17.1 23.2 29.9 45.0 42.3 32.6 32.2 25.5 31.5 27.9 29.2 27.9 33.2 29.2 30.2 33.6 41.3 39.9 42.0 39.6 38.6 41.6 51.7 50.0 63.4 70.5 78.5 81.2 85.2 92.6 100.0 85.2 86.9 86.9 Index] num- R a t i o . ber. 18.9 48.6 18.3 31.4 20.0 80.0 19.4 62.9 19.5 65.7 18.7 42.9 19.5 65.7 19.9 77.1 20.7 100.0 20.3 88.6 19.3 60.0 19.7 71.4 19.4 62.9 19.8 74.3 19.6 68.6 19.3 60.0 17.9 20.0 18.5 37.1 19.1 54.3 19.2 57.1 19.6 68.6 19.6 68.6 19.3 60.0 20.0 80.0 19.2 57.1 18.2 28.6 18.9 48.6 20.1 82.9 19.2 57.1 19.0 51.4 18.6 40.0 18.5 37.1 19.2 57.1 19.5 65.7 19.8 74.3 18.5 37.1 18.4 34.3 17.8 17.1 18.1 25.7 17.8 17.1 18.4 34.3 18.6 40.0 19.2 57.1 19.4 62.9 19.6 68.6 19.7 71.4 19.5 65.7 18.8 45.7 17.8 17.1 8.6 17.5 0.0 17.2 18.4 34.3 Per ct. 15.42 15.09 15.82 15.23 15.24 14.64 15.04 15.34 15.32 15.13 14.52 15.21 14.89 15.36 15.15 15.03 14.16 14.64 15.05 14.96 14.85 14.43 14.36 15.14 15.46 14.76 14.32 15.37 14.71 14.61 14.05 14.09 13.91 14.78 14.69 13.83 13.70 13.32 13.44 13.11 13.41 13.61 13.65 13.51 13.42 13.49 13.24 12.58 11.74 11.88 11.58 12.46 Ratio. 90.6 82.8 100.0 86.1 86.3 72.2 81.6 88.7 88.2 83.7 69.3 85.6 78.1 89.2 84.2 81.4 60.9 72.2 81.8 79.7 77.1 67.2 65.6 84.0 91.5 75.0 64.6 89.4 73.8 71.5 58.3 59.2 55.0 75.5 73.4 53.1 50.0 41.0 43.9 36.1 43.2 47.9 48.8 45.5 43.4 45.1 39.2 23.6 3.8 7.1 0.0 20.8 Relative demand for money. 9.4 17.2 0.0 13.9 13.7 27.8 18.4 11.3 11.8 16.3 30.7 14.4 21.9 10.8 15.8 18.6 39.1 27.8 18.2 20.3 22.9 32.8 34.4 16.0 8.5 25.0 35.4 10.6 26.2 28.5 41.7 40.8 45.0 24.5 26.6 46.9 50.0 59.0 56.1 63.9 56.8 52.1 51.2 54.5 56.6 54.9 60.8 76.4 96.2 92.9 100.0 79.2 268 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. TABLE 6.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the St. Louis clearing-house banks, 1899-1908 —Continued. [Amounts expressed in millions of dollars.] 1905 Loans. Deposits. 1906 Reserves (specie and legal tenders). Ratio of reserves to deposits. Month and week. Index Index Index Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. num- Ratio. ber. ber. ber. Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar. — 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21 June— 22 23 24 25 J U l y _ 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec.— 48 49 50 51 52 104.0 104.3 105.4 105.6 107.6 106.2 108.3 108.5 107.3 109.4 107.7 107.9 109.6 110.7 109.4 108.5 107.7 126.8 126.7 127.5 128.8 128.7 127.3 128.6 129.9 131.9 132.2 132.7 132.8 131.4 132.2 133.2 132.4 132.5 134.2 135.7 136.1 136.5 138.3 137.9 139.2 139.1 137.9 138.0 136.9 136.6 138.5 139.5 140.7 141.9 142.2 142.4 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.2 9.4 5.7 11.2 11.7 8.6 14.1 9.6 10.2 14.6 17.4 14.1 11.7 9.6 59.4 59.1 61.2 64.6 64.3 60.7 64.1 67.5 72.7 73.4 74.7 75.0 71.4 73.4 76.0 74.0 74.2 78.7 82.6 83.6 84.6 89.3 88.3 91.7 91.4 88.3 88.5 85.7 84.9 89.8 92.5 95.6 98.7 99.5 100.0 151.5 149.2 150.9 148.6 149.6 149.9 148.7 150.3 150.9 148.4 145.1 145.6 148.1 149.7 150.4 147.6 145.9 168.9 170.4 172.2 173.2 172.0 169.8 169.7 169.1 168.3 164.3 164.9 164.9 165.8 166.5 171.0 171.4 170.9 172.5 172.1 169.9 168.8 164.9 166.0 164.1 162.5 161.9 162.7 166.5 167.0 167.0 169.4 168.5 168.9 165.2 166.6 22.8 14.6 20.6 12.5 16.0 17.1 12.8 18.5 20.6 11.7 0.0 1.8 10.7 16.4 18.9 8.9 2.8 84.7 90.0 96.4 100.0 95.7 87.9 87.5 85.4 82.6 68.3 70.5 70.5 73.7 76.2 92.2 93.6 91.8 97.5 96.1 88.3 84.3 70.5 74.4 67.6 61.9 59.8 62.6 76.2 77.9 77.9 86.5 83.3 84.7 71.6 76.5 20.5 20.5 20.8 20.4 20.5 21.5 20.5 19.9 18.3 17.7 18.6 18.6 18.7 19.4 19.8 19.5 18.5 24.3 27.0 25.9 25.7 24.6 24.8 24.9 23.6 22.1 20.9 21.1 21.5 22.6 23.4 25.4 26.7 26.9 26.2 24.4 24.2 23.0 19.7 19.2 19.6 19.2 19.4 20.2 22.9 25.0 23.1 21.2 21.8 21.5 20.5 22.0 30.1 30.1 33.3 29.0 30.1 40.9 30.1 23.7 6.5 0.0 9.7 9.7 10.8 18.3 22.6 19.4 8.6 71.0 100.0 88.2 86.0 74.2 76.3 77.4 63.4 47.3 34.4 36.6 40.9 52.7 61.3 82.8 96.8 98.9 91.4 72.0 69.9 57.0 21.5 16.1 20.4 16.1 18.3 26.9 55.9 78.5 58.1 37.6 44.1 40.9 30.1 46.2 Perct. 13.45 13.00 13.78 12.95 13.04 14.28 13.72 13.25 12.09 11.93 12.74 12.77 12.63 12.65 13.17 13.25 12.61 14.37 15.88 14.41 14.84 14.21 14.61 14.62 13.89 13.06 12.72 12.75 13. 03 13.63 14.05 14.85 15.52 15.74 15.13 14.17 14.25 13.62 11.95 11.51 11.94 11.81 11.91 12.42 13.69 14.91 13.84 12.51 12.86 12.71 12.34 13.14 Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie and legal tenders). Ratio of reserves to deposits. Index number. Index number. Index Index Index Relative Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. num- Ratio. demand ber. ber. ber. Ratio. for money. Ratio. 44.4 34.1 51.9 33.0 35.0 63.4 50.6 39.8 13.3 9.6 28.1 28.8 25.6 26.1 38.0 39.8 25.2 65.4 100.0 66.4 76.2 61.8 70.9 71.2 54.5 35.5 27.7 28.4 34.8 48.5 58.1 53.6 91.8 96.8 82.8 60.9 62.7 48.3 10.1 0.0 9.8 6.9 9.2 20.8 49.9 77.8 53.3 22.9 30.9 27.5 19.0 37.3 55.6 65.9 48.1 67.0 65.0 36.6 49.4 60.2 86.7 90.4 71.9 71.2 74.4 73.9 62.0 60.2 74.8 34.6 .0 33.6 23.8 38.2 29.1 28.8 45.5 64.5 72.3 71.6 65.2 51.5 41.9 46.4 8.2 3.2 17.2 39.1 37.3 51.7 89.9 100.0 90.2 93.1 90.8 79.2 50.1 22.2 46.7 77.1 69.1 72.5 81.0 62.7 142.5 141.6 141.1 141.4 142.7 141.9 145.8 143.2 144.6 144.0 145.5 146.8 147.0 145.2 144.6 144.4 144.2 145.6 145.2 145.0 140.9 140.0 139. 5 139.3 139.0 139.3 139.4 139.7 140.0 139.4 139.8 139.7 140.1 139.4 140.4 141.3 141.7 141.8 142.6 142.7 141.0 140.5 140.1 140.1 140.5 140.6 142.2 142.7 144.1 154.2 153.6 153.1 23.0 17.1 13.8 15.8 24.3 19.1 44.7 27.6 36.8 32.9 42.8 51.3 52.6 40.8 36.8 35.5 34.2 43.4 40.8 39.5 12.5 6.6 3.3 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.6 4.6 6.6 2.6 5.3 4.6 7.2 2.6 9.2 15.1 17.8 18.4 23.7 24.3 13.2 9.9 7.2 7.2 9.9 10.5 21.1 24.3 33.6 100.0 96.1 92.8 169.2 170.9 173.8 174.9 174.4 173.0 175.3 176.2 175.7 178.9 176.2 175.4 172.4 174.2 172.3 169.2 168.3 168.9 167.9 167.4 166.4 165.8 166.0 165.1 163.4 163.6 163.5 163.6 162.9 163.9 164.3 165.7 166.7 165.3 168.4 167.5 167.3 165.7 166.0 168.0 169.6 170.9 173.2 171.4 175.8 176.6 176.1 176.8 175.7 194.8 191.7 193.9 19.7 25.1 34.2 37.6 36.1 31.7 38.9 41.7 40.1 50.2 41.7 39.2 29.8 35.4 29.5 19.7 16.9 18.8 15.7 14.1 11.0 9.1 9.7 6.9 1.6 2.2 1.9 2.2 0.0 3.1 4.4 8.8 11.9 7.5 17.2 14.4 13.8 8.8 9.7 16.0 21.0 25.1 32.3 26.6 40.4 43.0 41.4 43.6 40.1 100.0 90.3 97.2 23.1 25.3 26.9 26.9 25.8 25.7 26.6 25.6 26.8 26.1 25.7 26.5 24.1 25.4 26.1 24.5 25.6 24.9 24.2 23.8 24.5 23.9 23.7 24.9 24.1 23.9 22.5 22.7 23.5 23.7 23.2 23.8 24.0 24.7 23.5 24.8 23.0 21.9 21.5 20.6 21.1 21.0 21.6 21.3 24.1 26.3 23. S 22.6 23.2 26.4 26.7 27.9 34.2 64.4 86.3 86.3 71.2 69.9 82.2 68.5 84.9 75.3 69.9 80.8 47.9 65.8 75.3 53.4 68.5 58.9 49.3 43.8 53.4 45.2 42.5 58.9 47.9 45.2 26.0 28.8 39.7 42.5 35.6 43.8 46.6 56.2 39.7 57.5 32.9 17.8 12.3 0.0 6.9 5.5 13.7 9.6 47.9 78.1 43.8 27.4 35.6 79.5 83.6 100.0 Perct. 13.06 14.80 15.42 15.39 14.80 14.86 15.11 14.53 15.20 14.59 14.58 15.06 14.00 14.58 15.06 14.48 15.26 14.74 14.41 14.17 14.64 14.35 14.27 15.01 14.75 14.54 13.77 13.87 14.42 14.41 14.12 14.37 14.40 14.95 14.00 14.80 13.74 13.22 12.30 12.20 12.44 12.24 12.41 12.43 13.70 14.84 13.51 12.79 13.15 13.55 13.36 14.42 26.7 80.7 100.0 99.1 80.7 82.6 90.4 72.4 93.2 74.2 73.9 88.8 55.9 73.9 88.8 70.8 95.0 78.9 68.6 61.2 75.8 66.8 64.3 87.3 79.2 72.7 48.8 51.9 68.9 68.6 59.6 67.4 68.3 85.4 55.9 80.7 47.8 31.7 3.1 0.0 7.5 1.2 6.5 7.1 46.6 82.0 40.7 18.3 29.5 41.9 36.0 68.9 Relative demand for money. 73.3 19. a .0 .9 19. a 17.4 9.6 27.6 6.8 25.8 26.1 11.2 44.1 26.1 11.2 29.2 5.0 21.1 31.4 38.8 24.2 33.2 35.7 12.7 20.8 27.3 51.2 48.1 31.1 31.4 40.4 32.6 31.7 14.6 44.1 19.3 52.2 68.3 96.9 100.0 92.5 98.8 93.5 92.9 53.4 18.0 59.3 81.7 70.5 58.1 64.0 31.1 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 269 TABLE 6.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the St. Louis clearing-house 1899-1908—Continued. banks, [ A m o u n t s expressed in millions of dollars.] 1907 Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). 1908a R a t i o of reserves to Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. M o n t h a n d week. Index number. Index! Index] Index A m o u n t . num- A m o u n t . num- A m o u n t . n u m - | R a t i o . ber. ber. ber, 153.0 0.0 153.0 0.0 154.0 5.4 156.0 16.0 157.9 26.2 158.3 28.3 159.3 33.7 160.4 39.6 163.0 53.5 162.7 51.9 164.1 59.4 165.2 65.3 164.4 61.0 164.7 62.6 162.6 51.4 161.4 44.9 160.4 39.6 159.0 32.1 157.2 22.5 156.6 19.3 155.0 10.7 155.1 11.2 154.8 9.6 156.1 16.6 155.7 14.4 156.8 20.3 157.1 21.9 157.9 26.2 158.7 30.5 159.1 32.6 159.2 33.2 161.2 43.9 163.1 54.0 164.5 61.5 165.0 64.2 165.9 69.0 166.0 69.6 163.6 56.7 170.6 94.1 171.7 100.0 168.2 81.3 168.4 82.4 167.8 79.2 167.3 76.5 167.4 77.0 168.1 80.8 167.1 75.4 166.4 71.7 166.7 73.3 166.1 70.1 165.3 65.8 163.1 54.0 197.8 52.5 202.8 72.0 204.4 78.2 208.2 93.0 205.7 83.2 205.4 82.1 207.2 89.1 209.7 98.8 210.0 100.0 207.9 91.8 206.5 86.4 204.7 79.4 201.6 67.3 204.9 80.1 203.0 72.7 201.3 66.1 199.8 60.3 200.1 61.5 202.2 69.6 202.8 72.0 201.3 66.1 204.9 80.1 203.0 72.7 204.5 78.6 199.9 60.7 198.8 56.4 200.7 63.8 198.6 55.6 196.0 45.5 194.4 39.3 196.6 47.8 201.0 65.0 201.3 66.1 200.2 61.9 200.6 63.4 201.5 66.9 195.5 43.6 193.1 34.2 199.9 60.7 203.4 74.3 200.6 63.4 198.4 54.8 194.5 39.7 189.0 18.3 188.8 17.5 188.6 16.7 186.9 10.1 187.0 10.5 186.7 9.3 186.5 8.6 185.1 3.1 184.3 0.0 30.1 64.7 30.8 69.8 32.7 83.8 34.9 100.0 33.7 91.2 32.7 83.8 33.0 86.0 32.6 83.1 31.4 74.3 30.0 64.0 31.2 72.8 29.6 61.0 29.5 60.3 29.4 59.6 30.5 67.6 29.6 61.0 30.0 64.0 30.5 67.6 32.2 80.1 31.8 77.2 33.1 86.8 32.2 80.1 32.0 78.7 32.0 78.7 31.4 74.3 28.4 52.2 29.0 56.6 29.0 56.6 27.9 48.5 29.0 56.6 29.3 58.8 30.4 66.9 29.6 61.0 29.1 57.4 28.9 55.9 28.1 50.0 24.8 25.7 25.4 30.1 26.3 36.8 24.9 26.5 23.9 19.1 22.0 5.2 22.4 8.1 21.3 0.0 21.7 2.9 23.9 19.1 24.8 25.7 25.6 31.6 25.7 32.4 26.0 34.6 26.2 36.0 26.8 40.4 Per ct. 15.22 15.18 16.00 16.76 16.33 15.92 17.51 15.54 14.95 14.43 15.11 14.46 14.63 14.30 15.02 14.72 15.01 15.19 15.92 15.68 16.48 15.71 15.72 15.65 15.70 14.28 14.45 14.60 14.80 14.91 14.85 15.08 14.70 14.48 14.36 13.94 12.68 13.16 13.16 12.14 11.86 11.03 15.22 11.26 11.49 11.50 13.21 13.63 13.76 13.94 14.15 14.54 Ratio. 64.7 64.0 76.7 88.4 81.8 75.5 100.0 69.6 60.5 52.5 63.0 52.9 55.6 50.5 61.6 57.0 61.4 64.2 75.5 71.8 84.1 72.2 72.4 71.3 72.1 50.2 52.8 55.1 58.2 59.9 59.0 47.1 56.6 53.2 51.4 44.9 25.5 32.9 32.9 17.1 12.8 0.0 64.7 3.6 7.1 7.3 33.6 40.1 42.1 44.9 48.2 54.2 Relative demand for money. 35.3 36.0 23.3 11.6 18.2 24.5 0.0 30.4 39.5 47.5 37.0 47.1 44.4 49.5 38.4 43.0 38.6 35.8 24.5 28.2 15.9 27.8 27.6 28.7 27.9 49.8 47.2 44.9 41.8 40.1 41.0 52.9 43.4 46.8 48.6 55.1 74.5 67.1 67.1 82.9 87.2 100.0 35.3 96.4 92.9 92.7 66.4 59.9 57.9 55.1 51.8 45.8 Index number. Index| Index Index) num- A m o u n t . num-f A m o u n t . n u m - R a t i o . ber. ber. ber. Ratio. Per ct. 14.25 14.39 14.19 15.30 16.37 16.69 18.04 18.75 18.46 18.08 17.09 16.63 16.34 16.25 16.47 16.90 16.90 17.28 17.03 17.11 17.22 16.12 16.00 16.64 15.08 16.27 15.41 15.26 14.88 15.46 15.13 14.96 15.50 15.88 15.72 14.91 14.90 14.66 15.15 14.11 13.62 13.79 13.90 13.39 14.62 14.04 14.98 14.85 15.63 15.09 15.00 14.92 16.0 18.7 14.9 35.6 55.6 61.6 86.8 100.0 94.6 87.5 69.0 60.5 55.0 53.4 57.5 65.5 65.5 72.6 67.9 69.4 71.5 50.9 48.7 60.6 31.5 53.7 37.7 34.9 27.8 38.6 32.5 29.3 39.4 46.5 43.5 28.4 28.2 23.7 32.8 13.4 4.3 7.5 9.5 0.0 23.0 12.1 29.7 27.2 41.8 31.7 30.0 28.5 162.4 100.0 160.3 90.3 157.5 77.3 154.1 61.6 149.8 41.7 146.4 25.9 145.6 22.2 144.0 14.8 143.6 13.0 145.0 19.4 145.9 23.6 146.8 27.8 146.5 26.4 145.7 22.7 145.9 23.6 145.2 20.4 145.1 19.9 144.9 19.0 144.8 18.5 144.2 15.7 142.4 7.4 140.8 0.0 140.9 0.5 141.6 3.7 142.4 7.4 142.5 7.9 143.2 11.1 143.0 10.2 143.0 10.2 143.0 10.2 143.0 10.2 144.2 15.7 143.4 12.0 143.7 13.4 144.4 16.7 145.0 19.4 146.4 25.9 147.1 29.2 149.3 39.4 148.5 35.7 148.8 37.0 148.7 36.6 148.8 37.0 147.6 31.5 145.5 21.8 153.7 59.7 154.5 63.4 154.3 62.5 153.4 58.3 154.6 63.9 157.6 77.8 158.0 79.6 182.6 13.5 181.0 9.9 180.4 8.6 176.6 0.0 177.2 1.4 179.8 7.2 182.9 14.2 183.2 14.9 185.4 19.8 188.3 26.3 187.2 23.9 186.5 22.3 183.6 15.8 184.6 18.0 188.2 26.1 183.5 15.5 183.4 15.3 186.4 22.1 187.9 25.4 187.1 23.6 185.8 20.7 186.1 21.4 187.5 24.5 186.4 22.1 185.7 20.5 184.4 17.6 188.2 26.1 190.1 30.4 188.3 26.3 187.6 24.8 191.0 32.4 193.8 38.7 193.5 38.0 195.4 42.3 197.2 46.4 201.2 55.4 201.3 55.6 197.9 47.9 197.4 46.7 197.7 47.5 198.2 48.6 195.8 43.2 194.2 194.2 198.5 49.3 212.8 81.5 213.6 83.3 215.4 87.3 217.7 92.5 218.6 94.4 220.1 97.9 221.1 100.0 0.0 26.0 4.7 26.4 8.1 26.7 27.2 14.0 29.3 38.4 30.7 54.7 33.7 89.5 34.2 95.4 34.6 100.0 34.4 97.7 32.1 70.9 31.5 64.0 30.1 47.7 30.5 52.3 31.9 68.6 31.2 60.5 31.7 66.3 32.2 72.1 32.4 74.4 32.5 75.6 32.4 74.4 30.8 55.8 30.4 51.2 30.2 48.8 28.6 30.2 30.1 47.7 29.4 39.5 29.9 45.4 28.9 33.7 29.7 43.0 29.5 40.7 29.7 43.0 30.3 50.0 31.7 66.3 31.3 61.6 31.0 58.1 30.6 53.5 29.4 39.5 30.1 47.7 28.0 23.3 27.2 14.0 27.0 11.6 27.4 16.3 9.3 26.8 29.1 36.1 30.6 53.5 32.0 69.8 32.1 70.9 34.2 95.4 33.9 91.9 33.2 83.7 33.6 88.4 I a A v e r a g e figures for t h e period 1899-1908 are given i n T a b l e V I of t h e T e x t ( p . 36). NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 270 APPENDIX T A B L E 7.—Seasonal variations E.—NEW ORLEANS CLEARING-HOUSE BANKS, 1899-1908. in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits of the New Orleans clearing-house banks, 1899-1908 a [Amounts expressed in millions of dollars.] 1899 Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). 1900 R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week. & Index number. Index Index Index Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. num- Ratio. ber, c ber, c ber, c 16.9 7.3 16.7 2.4 16.6 0.0 16.7 2.4 16.8 4.9 16.8 4.9 17.0 9.8 17.1 12.2 16.9 7.3 16.6 0.0 16.7 2.4 16.8 4.9 17.0 9.8 17.4 19.5 17.6 24.4 17.5 22.0 17.5 22.0 17.4 19.5 17.6 24.4 17.7 26.8 17.6 24.4 17.6 24.4 17.7 26.8 17.7 26.8 17.7 26.8 17.6 24.4 17.7 26.8 17.7 26.8 17.7 26.8 17.5 22.0 17.3 17.1 17.2 14.6 17.6 24.4 17.8 29.3 18.0 34.2 18.4 43.9 18.8 53.7 18.9 56.1 19.3 65.9 19.7 75.6 19.9 80.5 19.9 80.5 19.8 78.1 19.9 80.5 20.2 87.8 20.5 95.1 20.6 97.6 20.5 95.1 20.3 90.3 20.3 90.3 20.5 95.1 20.7 100.0 Jan.— 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21 June—22 23 24 25 July—26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 g e pt.—35 Apr. 36 37 38 39 Oct.—40 41 42 43 NQY#_44 45 46 47 Dec#—48 49 50 51 52 25.8 51.9 26.4 63.5 26.6 67.3 27.1 76.9 27.3 80.8 27.5 84.6 27.9 92.3 28.3 100.0 28.2 98.1 28.0 94.2 28.0 94.2 27.8 90.4 27.6 86.5 27.4 82.7 27.4 82.7 26.9 73.1 26.8 71.2 26.7 69.2 26.7 69.2 26.3 61.5 25.7 50.0 25.3 42.3 25.3 42.3 24.8 32.7 24.4 25.0 24.0 17.3 24.0 17.3 23.9 15.4 1.9 23.2 0.0 23.1 7.7 23.5 5.8 23.4 23.7 11.5 9.6 23.6 7.7 23.5 7.7 23.5 5.8 23.4 1.9 23.2 23.7 11.5 23.9 15.4 24.5 26.9 24.6 28.9 24.2 21.2 24.1 19.2 24.8 32.7 24.8 32.7 24.0 17.3 24.9 34.6 24.2 21.2 26.1 57.7 26.4 63.5 26.2 59.6 5.6 84.0 5.9 96.0 6.6 84.0 5.5 80.0 5.5 80.0 5.6 84.0 5.7 88.0 6.0 100.0 5.9 96.0 5.9 96.0 5.7 88.0 5.4 76.0 4.7 48.0 4.2 28.0 4.5 40.0 4.4 36.0 4.2 28.0 4.0 20.0 4.0 20.0 4.1 24.0 4.1 24.0 4.0 20.0 8.0 3.7 3.8 12.0 3.9 16.0 3.8 12.0 8.0 3.7 8.0 3.7 8.0 3.7 4.0 20.0 4.0 20.0 4.0 20.0 4.0 20.0 4.0 20.0 3.8 12.0 0.0 3.5 8.0 3.7 8.0 3.7 4.0 20.0 4 . 1 24.0 4 . 1 24.0 3.9 16.0 3.8 12.0 3.8 12.0 8.0 3.7 8.0 3.7 3.9 16.0 3.9 16.0 3.9 16.0 4.7 48.0 4.8 52.6 4.7 48.0 Per ct. 21.70 22.34 21.05 20.29 20.14 20.36 20.43 21.20 20.92 21.07 20.35 19.42 17.03 15.32 16.42 16.35 15.67 14.98 14.98 15.58 15.95 15.81 14.62 15.32 15.98 15.83 15.41 15.48 15.94 17.31 17.01 17.17 16.87 16.99 16.17 14.89 15.81 15.94 16.87 17.15 16.73 15.85 15.70 15.76 14.91 14.91 16.25 15.66 16.11 18.00 18.18 17.93 Index number. Index Index Index Relative Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. num- Ratio. ber, c ber, c ber, c d e m a n d Ratio, c for m o n e y .d 91.7 100.0 83.3 73.4 71.5 74.4 75.3 85.2 81.6 83.6 74.2 62.2 31.2 9.1 23.3 22.4 13.6 4.7 4.7 12.4 17.2 15.4 0.0 9.1 17.6 15.7 10.2 11.1 17.1 34.8 31.0 33.0 29.1 30.7 20.1 3.5 15.4 17.1 29.1 32.8 27.3 15.9 14. Q 14.8 3.8 3.8 21.1 13.5 19.3 43.8 46.1 42.9 8.3 0.0 16.7 26.6 28.5 25.6 24.7 14.8 18.4 16.4 25.8 37.8 68.8 90.9 76.7 77.6 86.4 95.3 95.3 87.6 82.8 84.6 100.0 90.9 82.4 84.3 89.8 88.9 82.9 65.2 69.0 67.0 70.9 69.3 79.9 96.5 84.6 82.9 70.9 67.2 72.7 84.1 86.0 85.2 96.2 96.2 78.9 86.5 80.7 56.2 53.9 57.1 20.6 31.8 20.3 25.0 20.4 27.3 20.2 22.7 20.1 20.5 20.2 22.7 20.4 27.3 20.2 22.7 20.3 25.0 20.2 22.7 19.9 15.9 19.9 15.9 20.1 20.5 20.2 22.7 20.0 18.2 19.5 6.8 19.8 13.6 19.8 13.6 19.9 15.9 19.7 11.4 19.7 11.4 19.2 0.0 19.4 4.5 19.4 4.5 19.6 9.1 19.7 11.4 19.7 11.4 19.9 15.9 20.3 25.0 20.4 27.3 20.7 34.1 20.8 36.4 20.9 38.6 20.8 36.4 20.8 36.4 20.7 34.1 20.9 38.6 21.7 56.8 22.5 75.0 22.6 77.3 22.7 79.5 23.3 93.2 23.6 100.0 23.4 95.5 23.3 93.2 23.2 90.9 22.9 84.1 22.4 72.7 22.3 70.4 22.6 77.3 22.7 79.5 22.4 72.7 26.7 41.3 27.0 47.8 27.0 47.8 27.5 58.7 27.7 63.0 28.2 73.9 28.6 82.6 28.6 82.6 28.9 89.1 29.4 100.0 28.9 89.1 28.8 87.0 28.5 80.4 28.3 76.1 28.1 71.7 27.8 65.2 27.7 63.0 27.3 54.3 26.9 45.7 26.3 32.6 26.5 37.0 26.5 37.0 26.4 34.8 26.3 32.6 26.5 37.0 26.3 32.6 26.5 37.0 26.5 37.0 26.5 37.0 26.2 30.4 26.1 28.3 25.8 21.7 25.6 17.4 25.4 13.0 25.1 6.5 25.0 4.3 25.3 10.9 25.0 4.3 24.9 2.2 24.8 0.0 25.5 15.2 25.7 19.6 26.1 28.3 25.9 23.9 26.1 28.3 27.1 50.0 26.5 37.0 27.1 50.0 27.5 58.7 28.7 84.8 29.4 100.0 29.2 95.7 5.4 80.9 5.7 95.2 5.7 95.2 5.8 100.0 5.4 80.9 5.1 66.7 4.9 57.1 5.1 66.7 5.3 76.2 5.3 76.2 5.4 80.9 5.1 66.7 4.9 57.1 4.7 47.6 4.7 47.6 4.5 38.1 4.6 42.9 4 . 1 19.0 4.2 23.8 4.2 23.8 4.4 33.3 4.2 23.8 3.9 9.5 4 . 1 19.0 4.2 23.8 4 . 1 19.0 4 . 1 19.0 4.2 23.8 4.2 23.8 4.2 23.8 4.2 23.8 4 . 1 19.0 4.2 23.8 3.9 9.5 3.9 9.5 3.7 0.0 3.8 4.8 3.8 4.8 4.2 23.8 3.9 9.5 4.6 42.9 4.3 28.6 4.4 33.3 4.5 38.1 4.4 33.3 4.9 57.1 4.8 52.4 4.7 47.6 3.9 9.5 4.5 38.1 5.5 85.7 5.3 76.2 Per ct. 20.22 21.11 21.11 21.09 19.49 18.08 17.13 17.83 18.33 18.02 18.68 17.70 17.19 16.60 16.72 16.18 16.60 15.01 15.61 15.96 16.60 15.84 14.77 15.58 15.84 15.58 15.47 15.84 15.84 16.03 16.09 15.89 16.40 15.35 15.53 14.80 15.01 15.20 16.86 15.72 18.03 16.73 16.85 17.37 16.85 18.08 18.11 17.34 14.18 15.67 18.70 18.15 a The figures for amounts were collected directly from the New Orleans clearing-house banks by the National Monetary Commission. & The schedule of months is based upon a year in which January 1st falls upon the first day of the week. Cf. p . 13, note (&). c For method of computing index numbers cf. pp. 13-15 and 22. d These index numbers are the reverse of those in the preceding column, the sum of the two for each week always equaling 100. Ratio, c 87.2 100.0 100.0 99.7 76.6 56.3 42.6 52.7 59.9 55.4 64.9 50.8 43.4 34.9 36.7 28.9 34.9 12.0 20.6 25.7 34.9 24.0 8.5 20.2 24.0 20.2 18.6 24.0 24.0 26.7 27.6 24.7 32.0 16.9 19.5 8.9 12.0 14.7 38.7 22.2 55.6 36.8 38.5 46.0 38.5 56.3 56.7 45.6 0.0 21.5 65.2 57.3 Relative demand for money A 12.8 0.G 0.0 0.3 23.4 43.7 57.4 47.3 40.1 44.6 35.1 49.2 56.6 65.1 63. a 71.1 65.1 88.0 79.4 74. a 65.1 76.0 91.5 79.8 76.0 79.8 81.4 76.0 76.0 73.3 72.4 75. a 68.0 83.1 80.5 91.1 88.0 85.3 61.3 77.8 44.4 63.2 61.5 54.0 61.5 43.7 43.3 54.4 100.0 78.5 34.8 42.7 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 271 TABLE 7.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the New Orleans clearing-house 1899-1908 a—Continued. banks, [ A m o u n t s expressed in millions of dollars.] 1902 1901 Deposits. Reserves (specie] a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie] a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. M o n t h a n d week.6 Index number. Index| i Index] Amount. num-| Amount. number.c ber, c Jan.-- 1 2 3 4 Feb.-- 5 6 7 8 - 9 10 11 23.0 15.8 22.7 7.9 22.8 10.5 22.4 0.0 22.6 5.3 22.8 10.5 22.7 7.9 22.7 7.9 22.8 10.5 22.9 13.2 22.8 10.5 22.8 10.5 22.7 7.9 22.7 7.9 23.1 18.4 23.1 18.4 22.7 7.9 22.7 7.9 23.1 18.4 23.2 21.1 23.2 21.1 22.9 13.2 23.0 15.8 23.1 18.4 22.9 13.2 23.1 18.4 23.3 23.7 23.6 31.6 23.7 34.2 23.8 36.8 23.7 34.2 23.8 36.8 23.9 39.5 23.9 39.5 24.1 44.7 24.1 44.7 24.3 50.0 24.8 63.2 25.1 71.1 25.5 81.6 25.8 89.5 26.2 100.0 26.2 100.0 26.1 97.4 25.9 92.1 25.9 92.1 25.8 89.5 25.3 76.3 25.2 73.7 25.1 71.1 25.4 78.9 25.8 89.5 12 Apr.--13 14 15 16 17 May--18 19 20 21.... June—22 23 24 25 July--26 27 28 29 30 Aug.--31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.-- 4 0 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec--48 49 50 51 52 30.5 48.9 30.6 51.1 31.1 61.7 31.1 61.7 31.3 66.0 31.4 68.1 31.1 66.0 31.6 72.3 32.1 83.0 32.0 80.9 31.6 72.3 31.7 74.5 31.5 70.2 31.3 66.0 31.6 72.3 31.3 66.0 30.1 40.4 30.0 38.3 30.2 42.6 30.0 38.3 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.3 23.4 29.2 21.3 28.6 8.5 28.5 6.4 28.9 14.9 29.0 17.0 29.0 17.0 28.7 10.6 28.4 4.3 28.5 6.4 28.6 8.5 28.6 8.5 28.6 8.5 28.4 4.3 28.2 0.0 28.6 8.5 28.2 0.0 28.6 8.5 28.9 14.9 29.4 25.5 29.4 25.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 36.2 30.9 57.5 31.5 70.2 31.5 70.2 31.7 74.5 32.3 87.2 32.5 91.5 32.9 100.0 Index num- Ratio. Relative ber, c Ratio, c demand for money.d 6.5 75.8 6.9 87.9 7.3 100.0 7.0 90.9 6.9 87.9 6.4 72.7 6.4 72.7 6.1 63.6 5.9 57.6 5.3 39.4 5.3 39.4 5.0 30.3 5.0 30.3 4.9 27.3 5.1 33.3 5.1 33.3 4.7 21.2 4.5 15.2 4.1 3.0 4.6 18.2 4.9 27.3 5.0 30.3 4.7 21.2 4.5 15.2 4.4 12.1 4.4 12.1 4.6 18.2 4.4 12.1 4.1 3.0 4.2 6.1 4.5 15.2 4.5 15.2 4.6 18.2 4.3 9.1 4.5 15.2 4.4 12.1 4.4 12.1 4.5 15.2 4.6 18.2 4.4 12.1 4.1 3.0 4.1 3.0 4.3 9.1 4.7 21.2 4.5 15.2 5.1 33.3 4.9 27.3 4.8 24.2 4.2 6.1 4.4 12.1 4.1 3.0 4.0 0.0 Per ct. 21.31 22.54 23.47 22.50 22.04 20.38 20.57 19.30 18.38 16.56 16.77 15.77 15.87 15.65 16.13 16.29 15.61 15.00 13.57 15.33 16.55 16.89 16.04 15.41 15.38 15.43 15.91 15.72 14.13 12.54 15.84 15.78 16.08 15.03 15.73 15.49 15.60 15.73 16.31 15.38 14.18 13.94 14.62 15.81 15.05 16.50 15.55 15.23 13.24 13.62 12.61 12.15 80.9 91.8 100.0 91.4 87.4 72.7 74.4 63.2 55.0 39.0 40.8 32.0 32.9 30.9 35.2 36.6 30.6 25.2 12.5 28.1 38.9 41.9 34.4 28.8 28.5 29.0 33.2 31.5 17.5 3.4 32.6 32.1 34.7 25.4 31.6 29.5 30.5 31.6 36.7 28.5 17.9 15.8 21.8 32.3 25.6 38.4 30.0 27.2 9.6 13.0 4.1 0.0 19.1 8.2 0.0 8.6 12.6 27.3 25.6 36.8 45.0 61.0 59.2 68.0 67.1 69.1 64.8 63.4 69.4 74.8 87.5 71.9 61.1 58.1 65.6 71.2 71.5 71.0 66.8 68.5 82.5 96.6 67.4 67.9 65.3 74.6 68.4 70.5 69.5 68.4 63.3 71.5 82.1 84.2 78.2 67.7 74.4 61.6 70.0 72.8 90.4 87.0 95.9 100.0 Index number. Index| number, c 26.4 12.0 26.4 12.0 26.3 11.1 25.7 5.6 25.6 4.6 25.2 0.9 25.1 0.0 25.5 3.7 25.6 4.6 25.2 0.9 25.2 0.9 25.5 3.7 25.4 2.8 25.3 1.9 25.1 0.0 25.1 0.0 25.5 3.7 25.5 3.7 26.1 9.3 26.3 11.1 26.6 13.9 26.4 12.0 26.1 9.3 26.1 9.3 26.1 9.3 26.5 13.0 26.7 14.8 27.0 17.6 27.8 25.0 27.8 25.0 28.1 27.8 28.2 28.7 28.5 31.5 28.9 35.2 29.3 38.9 29.9 44.4 30.7 51.9 31.0 54.6 31.7 61.1 32.7 70.4 33.3 75.9 33.8 80.6 33.6 78.7 34.4 86.1 35.1 92.6 35.5 96.3 35.3 94.5 35.2 93.5 35.2 93.5 35.0 91.7 35.8 99.1 35.9 100.0 [Index] number, c 33.4 5.6 34.4 24.1 34.8 31.5 35.1 37.0 34.8 31.5 34.9 33.3 35.0 35.2 36.1 55.6 36.3 59.3 36.3 59.3 36.4 61.1 36.1 55.6 36.2 57.4 36.4 61.1 36.8 68.5 36.7 66.7 36.4 61.1 36.5 63.0 35.9 51.8 34.8 31.5 34.4 24.1 33.7 11.1 33.6 9.3 33.8 13.0 33.7 11.1 33.9 14.8 34.6 27.8 34.8 31.5 34.5 25.9 34.1 18.5 33.6 9.3 33.2 1.9 33.7 11.1 33.9 14.8 33.4 5.6 33.1 0.0 33.5 7.4 34.0 16.7 34.1 18.5 34.6 27.8 35.1 37.0 34.9 33.3 34.9 3^.3 35.6 46.3 36.2 57.4 36.8 68.5 36.9 70.4 37.0 72.2 38.1 92.6 38.4 98.1 38.5 100.0 37.9 Index! num- Ratio. ber, c 4.9 52.4 5.4 76.2 5.7 90.4 5.6 85.7 5.6 85.7 5.6 85.7 5.7 90.4 5.9 100.0 5.8 95.2 5.7 90.4 5.5 80.9 5.5 80.9 5.3 71.4 5.3 71.4 5.2 66.6 5.1 61.9 4.9 52.4 4.9 52.4 4.7 42.8 4.8 47.6 4.6 38.1 5.1 61.9 4.8 47.6 4.9 52.4 4.7 42.8 4.4 28.6 4.6 38.1 4.4 28.6 4.4 28.6 4.7 42.8 4.8 47.6 4.7 42.8 4.6 38.1 4.1 14.3 4.3 23.8 4.2 19.0 4.2 19.0 4.2 19.0 4.1 14.3 4.2 19.0 4.5 33.3 4.4 28.6 4.2 19.0 4.3 23.8 4.2 19.0 4.5 33.3 4.9 52.4 4.9 52.4 4.8 47.6 5.1 61.9 4.6 38.1 0.0 3.8 Per ct. 14.67 15.69 16.37 15.95 16.09 16.04 16.28 16.34 15.97 15.70 15.10 15.23 14.64 14.56 14.13 13.89 13.46 13.42 13.09 13.79 13.37 15.13 14.28 14.49 13.94 12.97 13.29 12.64 12.75 13.78 14.28 14.15 13.64 12.09 12.87 12.68 12.53 12.35 12.02 12.13 12.82 12.60 12.03 12.07 11.60 12.22 13.27 13.26 12.59 13.28 11.94 10.02 a T h e figures for a m o u n t s were collected directly from t h e N e w Orleans clearing-house b a n k s b y t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission. 6 T h e schedule of m o n t h s is based u p o n a year in w h i c h J a n u a r y 1st falls u p o n t h e first d a y of t h e w e e k . Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c F o r m e t h o d of c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s cf. p p . 13-15 a n d 22. d T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e reverse of those in t h e preceding c o l u m n , t h e s u m of t h e t w o for each week a l w a y s e q u a l i n g 100. Ratio, c 73.2 89.3 100.0 93.4 95.6 94.8 98.6 99.5 93.7 89.4 80.0 82.1 72.8 71.5 64.7 60.9 54.2 53.5 48.4 59.4 52.8 80.5 67.1 70.4 61.7 46.5 51.5 41.3 43.0 59.2 67.1 65.0 57.0 32.6 44.9 41.9 39.5 36.7 31.5 33.2 44.1 40.6 31.7 32.3 24.9 34.6 51.2 51.0 40.5 51.3 30.2 0.0 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 272 TABLE 7.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the New Orleans clearing-house 1899-1908 a—Continued. banks, [ A m o u n t s expressed in millions of dollars.] 1903 Loans. Deposits. 1904 Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week.& Index number. Index| Index] Amount. num- Amount. | number, c ber, c Jan.— 1.. 2.. 3.. 4.. Feb.— 5.. 6.. 7.. Mar.— 9 . . 10.. 11.. 12.. Apr.—13.. 14.. 15.. 16.. 17.. May—18.. 19.. 20.. 21.. June—22.. 23.. 24.. 25.. July—26.. 27.. 28.. 29.. 30.. Aug.—31.. 32.. 33.. 34.. Sept.—35. 36.. 37.. 38.. 39.. Oct.—40.. 41.. 42.. 43.. Nov.—44.. 45-. 46.. 47.. Dec—48.. 49.. 50., 51.. 52., 36.0 35.7 35.3 34.7 33.7 33.9 33.6 33.5 32.6 32.9 32.9 32.7 32.7 32.9 33.2 33.9 34.2 34.2 34.1 33.9 33.9 33.9 34.1 34.6 34.9 35.0 36.3 37.4 37.7 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.7 37.6 37.1 37.2 37.2 37.7 38 5 38.9 38.9 39.0 38.9 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.7 39.6 38.9 38.6 38.9 39.7 47.9 43.7 38.0 29.6 15.5 18.3 14.1 12.7 0.0 4.2 4.2 1.4 1.4 4.2 8.5 18.3 22.5 22.5 21.1 18.3 18.3 18.3 21.1 28.2 32.4 33.8 52.1 67.6 71.8 66.2 67.6 69.0 71.8 | 70.4 63.4 64.8 64.8 1 71.8 1 83.1 88.7 88.7 90.1 88.7 91.6 93.0 94.0 100.0 98.6 88.7 84.5 88.7 100.0 1.2 38.9 40.2 17.3 40.8 24.7 40.9 25.9 40.9 25.9 41.9 38.3 41.7 35.8 42.1 40.7 42.0 39.5 42.1 40.7 42.0 39.5 40.9 25.9 40.9 25.9 40.9 25.9 40.7 23.5 40.2 17.3 8.6 39.5 0 0 38.8 3.7 39.1 39.9 13.6 40.2 17.3 40.1 16.1 39.8 12.3 40.8 24.7 41.6 34.6 41.7 35.8 45.8 86.4 45.8 86.4 44.2 66.7 42.6 46.9 42.2 42.0 41.6 34.6 41.6 34.6 41.2 29.6 40.9 25.9 40.7 23.5 40.8 24.7 40.3 18.5 40.1 16.1 40.7 23.5 41.4 32.1 41.4 32.1 41.6 34.6 42.1 40.7 42.3 43.2 43.9 63.0 43.5 58.0 43.8 61.7 44.6 71.6 46.4 93.8 45.0 76.5 46.9 100.0 Index num-| Ratio. ber.c 4.9 16.7 5.4 30.6 5.6 36.1 5.2 25.0 5.4 30.6 4.9 16.7 4.9 16.7 4.8 13.9 5.0 19.4 4.9 16.7 5.1 22.2 5.3 27.8 5.3 27.8 4.9 16.7 8.3 4.6 2.8 4.4 0.0 4.3 5.6 4.5 8.3 4.6 4.8 13.9 5.0 19.4 5.2 25.0 5.0 19.4 5.0 19.4 5.7 38.9 6.3 55.6 7.9 100.0 7.8 97.2 6.9 72.2 6.1 50.0 6.0 47.2 5.6 36.1 4.9 16.7 4.8 13.9 5.0 19.4 4.8 13.9 8.3 4.6 2.8 4.4 .0 4.3 5.1 22.2 5.1 22.2 4.8 13.9 4.8 13.9 5.3 27.8 5.2 25.0 5.7 38.9 4.9 16.7 5.1 22.2 5.3 27.8 6.1 50.0 5.6 36.1 5.6 36.1 Per ct. 12.59 13.43 13.72 12.71 13.20 11.69 11.75 11.40 11.90 11.63 12.14 12.95 12.95 11.98 11.30 10.93 10.88 11.59 11. 70 12.03 12.43 12.96 12.56 12.25 13.70 15.10 17.24 17.03 15.61 14.31 14.21 13.46 11.77 11.65 12.22 11.79 11.27 10.91 10.72 12.53 12.31 11.59 11.53 12.58 12.29 12.98 11.25 11.63 11.88 13.14 12.44 11.94 Index number. Index) Index Index num- Amount. num- Amount. num- Ratio. ber, c ber, c ber, c Relative Ratio, c demand for money A 28.7 41.6 46.0 30.5 38.0 14.9 15.8 10.4 18.1 14.0 21.8 34.2 34.2 19.3 8.9 3.2 2.5 13.3 16.0 20.1 26.2 34.4 28.2 23.5 45.7 67.2 100.0 96.8 75.0 55.1 53.5 42.0 16.1 14.3 23.0 16.4 8.4 2.9 .0 27.8 24.4 13.3 12.4 28.5 24.1 34.7 8.1 14.0 17.8 37.1 26.4 18.7 71.3 58.4 54.0 69.5 62.0 85.1 84.2 89.6 81.9 86.0 78.2 65.8 65.8 80.7 91.1 96.8 97.5 86.7 84.0 79.9 73.8 65.6 71.8 76.5 54.3 32.8 0.0 3.2 25.0 44.9 46.5 58.0 83.9 85.7 77.0 83.6 91.6 97.1 100.0 72.2 75.6 86.7 87.6 71.5 75.9 65.3 91.9 86.0 82.2 62.9 73.6 81.3 40.6 40.9 40.9 40.6 40.9 41.8 42.4 42.6 41.3 40.0 39.5 39.4 39.1 38.4 38.0 38.1 37.1 36.3 35.9 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.5 36.5 36.7 36.5 36.6 36.9 36.9 37.0 36.9 37.0 37.7 37.8 38.3 38.9 39.3 39.7 40.3 40.9 41.6 42.2 42.3 43.3 44.0 44.2 44.5 43.6 43.5 44.6 44.8 44.9 52.2 55.6 55.6 52.2 55.6 65.6 72.2 74.4 60.0 45.6 40.0 38.9 35.6 27.8 23.3 24.4 13.3 4.4 0.0 1.1 2.2 3.3 6.7 6.7 8.9 6.7 7.8 11.1 11.1 12.2 11.1 12.2 20.0 21.1 26.7 33.3 37.8 42.2 48.9 55.5 63.3 70.0 71.1 82.2 90.0 92.2 95.6 85.6 84.4 96.7 49.6 40.3 51.5 54.5 52.2 59.7 52.8 64.2 55.0 80.6 57.6 100.0 55.4 83.6 53.4 68.7 53.5 69.4 51.1 51.5 51.0 50.8 51.6 55.2 50.6 47.8 49.1 36.6 48.5 32.1 48.2 29.9 47.0 20.9 49.7 41.0 46.0 13.4 45.7 11.2 44.6 3.0 44.2 0 0 44.5 2.2 44.6 3.0 45.4 9.0 44.9 5.2 45.9 12.7 47.3 23.1 47.9 27.6 47.3 23.1 47.1 21.6 47.8 26.9 48.3 30.6 48.1 29.1 47.9 27.6 47.8 26.9 47.7 26.1 47.9 27.6 47.3 23.1 47.8 26.9 48.5 32.1 49.2 37.3 49.0 35.8 48.8 34.3 49.4 38.8 49.9 42.5 50.3 45.5 50.3 45.5 51.6 55.2 53.7 70.9 54.3 75.4 54.5 76.9 7.7 66.7 8.6 88.1 8.2 78.6 7.5 61.9 7.2 54.8 8.1 76.2 9.1 100. 0 7.5 61.9 6.9 47.6 6.6 40.5 6.7 42.9 6.6 40.5 6.6 40.5 6.3 33.3 5.9 23.8 6.0 26.2 5.7 19.0 6.0 26.2 5.8 21.4 5.4 11.9 5.4 11.9 5.7 19.0 5.5 14.3 5.0 2.4 5.2 7.1 5.7 19.0 6.0 26.2 6.0 26.2 6.3 33.3 6.2 31.0 6.4 35.7 6.2 31.0 6.1 28.6 5.7 19.0 5.7 19.0 5.7 19.0 5.3 9.5 5.3 9.5 5.3 9.5 5.5 14.3 5.5 14.3 6.1 28.6 5.6 16.7 4.9 0.0 4.9 0.0 5.1 4.8 5.6 16.7 5.8 21.4 5.8 21.4 6.2 31.0 6.9 47.6 5.9 23.8 Per ct. 15.52 16.69 15.70 14.20 13.09 14.06 16.42 14.04 12.89 12.91 13.13 12.78 13.04 12.83 12.16 12.44 12.12 12.07 12.60 11.81 12.10 12.89 12.35 11.21 11.45 12.69 13.07 12.68 13.15 13.10 13.58 12.97 12.62 11.85 11.89 11.92 11.11 11.06 11.20 11.50 11.34 12.39 11.42 10.04 9.91 10.22 11.13 11. 53 11.24 11.54 12.70 10. 85 a T h e figures for a m o u n t s were collected d i r e c t l y from t h e N e w Orleans clearing-house b a n k s b y t h e N a t i o n a l M o n e t a r y Commission. b T h e schedule of m o n t h s is b a s e d u p o n a year i n w h i c h J a n u a r y 1st falls u p o n t h e first d a y of t h e week. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (&). c F o r m e t h o d of c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s cf. p p . 13-15 a n d 22. d T h e s e i n d e x n u m b e r s are t h e reverse of those in t h e preceding c o l u m n , t h e s u m of t h e t w o for each w e e k a l w a y s e q u a l i n g 100. Ratio. 82.8 100.0 85.4 63.3 46.9 61.2 96.0 60.9 44.0 44.3 47.5 42.3 46.2 43.1 33.2 37.3 32.6 31.9 39.7 28.0 32.3 44.0 36.0 19.2 22.7 41.0 46.6 40.9 47=8 47.1 54.1 45.1 40.0 28.6 29.2 29.6 17.7 17.0 19.0 23.5 21.1 36.6 22.3 1.9 0.0 4.6 18.0 23.9 19.6 24.0 41.2 13.9 Relative demand for m o n e y .<* 17.2 0.0 14.6 36.7 53.1 38.8 4.0 39.1 56.0 55.7 52.5 57.7 53.8 62.7 67.4 68.1 60.3 72.0 67.7 56.0 64.0 80.8 77.3 59.0 53.4 59.1 52.2 52.9 45.9 54.9 60.0 71.4 70.8 70.4 82.3 83.0 81.0 76.5 78.9 63.4 77.7 98.1 100.0 95.4 82.0 76.1 80.4 76.0 58.8 86.1 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 273 TABLE 7.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the New Orleans clearing -house banks, 1899-1908 a—Continued. [ A m o u n t s expressed in millions of dollars. 1905 Deposits. Loans. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). 1906 R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. M o n t h a n d week.fc Index number. j Index number. Index Index Index Index Index Index Relative Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. n u m - Ratio. Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. num- Ratio. ber, c bers ber, c ber, c d e m a n d ber, c ber, c Ratio, c for money A Ratio, c i Jan.— 1 2 3 4 i | | 6 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Api.—13 14 15 16 17 May—18 19 20 21 June—22 23 24 25 J u l v — 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38. 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.—44 45 46 47 Dec. - 4 8 49 50 51 52 45.4 44.2 43.9 43.2 42.5 41.1 40.1 39.8 39.8 40.3 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.4 40.7 41.0 41.6 42.6 43.2 43.5 43.6 43.6 43.1 44.1 44.6 45.1 46.2 45.1 45.4 46.4 46.9 47.9 48.9 49.0 49.5 49.7 50.5 51.1 52.3 53.3 54.3 54.8 56.1 57.8 59.1 59.9 60.3 59.7 60.1 60.1 60.3 60.6 28.9 21.2 19.7 16.3 13.0 6.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.8 4.3 5.7 8.6 13.5 16.3 17.8 18.3 18.3 15.9 20.7 23.1 25.5 30.8 25.5 26,9 31.7 34.1 38.9 43.7 44.2 46.6 47.6 51.4 54.3 60.1 64.9 69.7 72.1 78.4 86.5 92.8 96.6 | 98.6 95.7 97.6 | 97.6 | 98.6 | 100.0 56.1 56.3 55.9 56.1 56.8 55.8 54.6 54.0 54.0 54.2 54.9 54.3 53.0 37.9 39.4 36.4 37.9 43.2 35.6 26.5 22.0 22.0 23.5 28.8 24.2 14.4 52.9 13.6 52.9 13.6 52.3 9.1 52.4 9.8 52.3 9.1 52.5 10.6 52.4 9.8 52.3 9.1 51.1 0.0 51.5 3.0 52.6 11.4 53.5 18.2 54.4 25.0 59.4 62.9 58.9 59.1 57.9 51.5 58.8 58.3 57.5 48.5 57.2 46.2 57.2 46.2 57.1 45.5 59.2 61.4 57.6 49.2 58.2 53.8 57.6 49.2 57.2 46.2 57.3 47.0 58.5 56.1 , 59.3 62.1 59.9 66.7 62.0 82.6 61.9 81.8 62.3 84.8 62.5 86.4 63.2 91.7 64.3 100.0 61.9 81.8 61.3 77.3 63.4 93.2 Per ct. 6.8 69.3 12.12 7.2 84.6 12.79 6.7 65.4 11.98 6.5 57.7 11.58 6.6 61.5 11.62 6.0 38.5 10.75 5.6 23.1 10.25 5.7 26.9 10.55 11.48 6.2 46.2 10.70 5.8 30.8 10.56 5.8 30.8 10.13 5.5 19.2 10.00 5.3 11.5 9.83 7.7 5.2 10.02 5.3 11.5 10.32 5.4 15.4 11.07 5.8 30.8 10.70 5.6 23.1 10.67 5.6 23.1 11.26 5.9 34.6 11.47 6.0 38.5 10.96 5.6 23.1 10.29 5.3 11.5 11.21 5.9 34.6 11.77 6.3 50.0 12.50 6.8 69.2 12.79 7.6 100.0 10.69 6.3 50.0 11.22 6.5 57.7 12.07 7.1 80.8 12.00 6.9 73.1 11.18 6.4 53.9 10.84 6.2 46.2 10.86 6.2 46.2 12.50 7.4 92.3 11.11 6.4 53.9 10.65 6.2 46.2 9.89 5.7 j 26.9 8.74 0.0 5.0 9.07 7.7 5.2 9.23 5.4 15.4 10.29 j 6.1 1 42.3 9.01 15.4 5.4 9.35 30.8 5.8 9.21 5.7 26.9 9.15 | 5.7 j 26.9 ! 8.96 5.6 23.1 8.70 19.2 5.5 | 9.17 5.9 34.6 9.21 1 5.7 | 26.9 9.62 5.9 j 34.6 11.19 80.8 7.1 | 83.6 100.0 80.2 70.4 71.4 50.1 37.9 45.2 68.0 48.9 45.5 35.0 31.8 27.6 32.3 39.6 57.9 48.9 48.2 62.6 67.7 55.3 38.9 61.4 75.1 92.9 100.0 48.7 61.6 82.4 80.7 60.6 52.3 52.8 92.9 58.9 47.7 29.1 1.0 9.0 13.0 38.9 7.6 15.9 12.5 11.0 6.4 0.0 11.5 12.5 22.5 60.9 16.4 0.0 19.8 29.6 28.6 49.9 62.1 54.8 32.0 51.1 54.5 65.0 68.2 72.4 67.7 60.4 42.1 51.1 51.8 37.4 32.3 44.7 61.1 38.6 24.9 7.1 0.0 51.3 38.4 17.6 19.3 39.4 47.7 47.2 7.1 41.1 52.3 70.9 99.0 91.0 87.0 61.1 92.4 84.1 87.5 89.0 93.6 100.0 88.5 87.5 77.5 3Q.1 60.6 54.9 60.1 51.9 59.3 46.9 57.7 37.0 57.3 34.6 57.6 36.4 56.5 29.6 55.4 22.8 55.0 20.4 53.8 13.0 9.9 53.3 6.2 52.7 4.3 52.4 0.0 51.7 2.5 52.1 59.7 49.4 59.7 49.4 59.6 48.8 59.1 45.7 58.7 43.2 58.3 40.7 58.0 38.9 58.3 40.7 58.5 42.0 58.8 43.8 59.4 47.5 59.9 50.6 59.5 48.1 59.5 48.1 59.6 48.8 59.1 45.7 59.4 47.5 59.7 49.4 60.0 51.2 60.6 54.9 61.2 58.6 62.0 63.6 62.7 67.9 63.9 | 75.3 64.2 77.2 65.0 82.1 66.5 91.4 67.3 96.3 67.9 100.0 67.9 100.0 67.2 95.6 | 66.8 93.2 66.4 90.7 66.6 92.0 66.5 91.4 66.1 88.8 65.4 84.6 63.4 64.0 63.4 62.0 62.1 62.1 77.0 80.6 77.0 68.5 69.1 69.1 61.1 63.0 59.7 54.5 ! 59.5 53.3 58.5 47.3 58.9 49.7 58.6 47.9 58.2 45.5 57.4 40.6 57.3 40.0 67.2 100.0 66.5 95.8 65.2 87.9 64.7 84.8 64.1 81.2 63.3 76.4 63.0 74.5 63.6 78.2 64.0 80.6 64.2 81.8 65.6 90.3 52.9 13.3 52.3 9.7 51.3 3.6 51.2 3.0 50.7 0.0 50.9 1.2 51.2 3.0 51.5 4.8 51.4 4.2 50.9 1.2 50.9 1.2 50.9 1.2 51.3 3.6 53,6 17.6 53.2 j 15.2 52.8 12.7 52.3 9.7 54.2 21.2 54.5 23.0 54.5 23.0 54.4 22.4 54.2 21.2 54.5 23.0 56.0 32.1 56.0 32.1 55.6 29.7 7.1 7.6 6.9 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.4 5.9 5.2 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.8 5.4 5.0 5.1 5.7 6.1 6.0 6.1 5.8 5.5 4.9 4.9 5.4 6.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.0 5.7 5.6 5.8 7.5 Per ct. 82.1 59.5 \ 11.19 100.0 71.5 11.87 75.0 54.1 | 10.88 39.3 29.9 9.51 1 50.0 38.2 9.98 1 50.0 38.2 9.98 50.0 1 10.14 41.0 53.6 48.2 10.55 j 60.7 54.8 10.92 67.9 64.1 11.45 57.1 53.7 10.86 39.3 39.8 10.07 14.3 19.7 8.93 0.0 9.7 8.36 14.3 22.2 9.07 28.6 9.2 8.33 32.1 13.4 8.57 17.9 5.6 8.13 17.9 6.7 8.19 17.9 8.1 8.27 25.0 15.5 8.69 35.7 24.6 9.21 21.4 8.49 12.0 7.1 7.81 0.0 10.7 2.8 7.97 32.1 15.5 8.69 46.4 11.53 65.5 42.9 11.47 64.4 46.4 11.89 71.8 35.7 11.33 62.0 25.0 10.85 53.5 3.6 9.62 31.9 9.59 3.6 31.3 21.4 10.48 47.0 53.6 12.25 78.2 32.1 11.20 59.7 32.1 11.20 59.7 32.1 11.20 59.7 14.3 10.13 40.8 32.1 10.63 49.6 39.3 11.09 57.8 28.6 10.61 49.3 32.1 10.90 54.4 32.1 10.51 47.5 28.6 10.27 43.3 32.1 10.46 46.7 25.0 10.11 40.5 7.1 9.22 24.8 | 32.1 10.46 46.7 28.6 10.00 38.6 35.7 10.36 44.9 96.4 13.49 100.0 o T h e figui*es for a m o u n t s wr ere co lected dire<ctly frc>m t h e N ew Orle ins clearin g-house b a n k s b y t h e N a t i on a l M(m e t a r y Co mmiss on. & T h e schedule oi m o n t h s is based u p o n a ye a r i n w r hich Jan u a r y 1st falls u p o n t h e first d ay o f t he week. Cf. p . 13, n o t e (b )• c F o r m e t llod of c o m p u t i n g i n d e x n u m b e r s c f. p p . 13-15 anc122. d T h e s e in i e x n u m b e r s are t h e ieirerse of t h ose in t h e preceding co u m n , t h e s u m of t h e t w o fo r each wee k alw£lys equalin glOO. 16065°- 11 \i\ Relative demand for money A 40.5 28.5 45.9 70.1 61.8 61.8 59.0 51.8 45.2 35.9 46.3 60.2 80.3 90.3 77.8 90.8 86.6 94.4 93.3 91.9 84.5 75.4 88.0 100.0 97.2 84.5 34.5 35.6 28.2 38.0 46.5 68.1 68.7 53.0 21.8 40.3 40 3 40.3 59 2 50 4 42 2 50 7 45 6 52.5 56 7 53 3 59 5 75 2 53 3 61 4 55 1 0 0 NATIONAL MONETARY COMMISSION. 274 T A B L E 7.—Seasonal variations in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the New Orleans clearing-house 1899-1908 «—Continued. banks, [Amounts expressed in millions of dollars.] 1907 Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). 1908 « R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. Loans. Deposits. R e s e r v e s (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week.6 Index number. Index Index Index Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. num- Ratio. b e r s ber, c ber, c 1 2 3 4 Feb.— 5 6 7 8 Mar.— 9 10 11 12 Apr.—13 14 15 16 17 May— 18 19 20 21 J u n e — 22 23 24 25 J u l y — 26 27 28 29 30 Aug.—31 32 33 34 Sept.—35 36 37 38 39 Oct.— 40 41 42 43 Nov.— 44 45 46 47 D e c — 48 65.4 63.6 62.4 61.7 61.6 61.1 60.7 Jan.— 49 50 51 52 , 60.8 61.0 61.5 61.9 62.5 62.4 62.1 61.7 61.2 60.9 59.7 59.6 59.8 60.1 60.3 60.7 60.8 60.8 60.3 60.3 60.1 60.2 61.0 61.6 62.7 62.4 61.9 62.7 63.8 64.5 65.0 65.4 65.9 66.2 66.5 66.0 65.8 64.9 64.8 62.5 62.3 62.0 61.3 1 60.3 59.1 85.1 60.8 44.6 35.1 33.8 27.0 21.6 23.0 25.7 32.4 37.8 45.9 44.6 40.5 35.1 28.4 24.3 8.1 6.8 9.5 13.5 16.2 21.6 23.0 23.0 16.2 16.2 13.5 14.9 25.7 33.8 48.6 44.6 37.8 48.6 63.5 73.0 79.7 85.1 91.9 95.9 100.0 93.2 90.5 78.3 77.0 45.9 43.2 39.2 29.7 16.2 0.0 56.6 79.7 57.1 87.5 57.7 96.9 57.9 100.0 57.7 96.9 57.0 85.9 56.7 81.3 56.4 76.6 56.2 73.4 56.5 78.1 57.0 85.9 57.1 87.5 56.5 78.1 56.6 79.7 56.5 78.1 55.9 68.8 55.1 56.3 54.8 51.6 54.5 46.9 54.8 51.6 55.4 60.9 55.2 57,8 55.5 62.5 55.3 59.4 56.3 75.0 55.4 60.9 54.3 43.8 54.1 40.6 54.0 39.1 54.3 43.8 55.2 57.8 55.3 59.4 55.1 56.3 54.9 53.1 55.0 54.7 54.6 48.4 54.9 53.1 55.1 56.3 55.2 57.8 54.8 51.6 54.3 43.8 52.7 18.8 53.3 28.1 52.8 20.3 52.9 21.9 52.9 21.9 53.1 25.0 52.9 21.9 9.4 52.1 7.8 52.0 0.0 51.5 6.3 51.9 Index number. Index Index Index Relative Amount. n u m - A m o u n t . n u m - Amount. n u m - Ratio. ber, c ber, c ber, c Ratio, c demand for m o n e y .d Per ct. 89.3 13.24 7.5 88.6 100.0 13.83 7.9 100.0 84.7 7.5 88.6 12.99 68.1 7.0 74.3 12.08 44.1 6.2 51.4 10.76 36.6 5.9 42.9 10.35 47.2 6.2 51.4 10.93 70.9 6.9 71.4 12.23 84.5 7.3 82.9 12.98 67.2 6.8 68.6 12.03 59.0 6.6 62.9 11.58 55.4 6.5 60.0 11.38 63.9 6.7 65.7 11.85 53.9 6.4 57.1 11.30 44.6 6.1 48.6 10.79 50.1 6.2 51.4 11.09 46.3 6.0 45.7 10.88 47.4 6.0 45.7 10.94 41.9 5.8 40.0 10.64 50.8 6.1 48.6 11.13 41.9 5.9 42.9 10.64 36.1 5.7 37.2 10.32 41.7 5.9 42.9 10.63 52.1 6.2 51.4 11.20 42.1 6.0 45.7 10.65 32.1 5.6 34.3 10.10 29.1 5.4 28.6 9.94 33.2 5.5 31.4 10.16 40.3 5.7 37.1 10.55 29.1 5.4 28.6 9.94 26.2 5.4 28.6 9.78 39.0 5.8 40.0 10.48 43.0 5.9 42.9 10.70 40.4 5.8 40.0 10.56 26.8 5.4 28.6 9.81 4.8 11.4 8.2 8.79 5.1 20.0 17.1 9.28 5.7 37.1 36.4 10.34 5.4 28.6 26.2 9.78 5.4 28.6 27.5 9.85 4.8 11.4 8.9 8.83 4.4 0.0 0.0 8.34 5.1 20.0 22.2 9.56 4.6 6.7 5.7 8.71 5.0 17.1 20.2 9.45 5.5 31.4 37.3 10.39 5.6 34.3 40.1 10.54 5.9 42.9 51.2 11.15 5.8 40.0 47.9 10.97 5.6 34.3 1 10.76 44.1 6.1 48.6 63.8 11.84 6.2 51.4 65.6 11.94 10.7 0.0 15.3 31.9 55.9 63.4 52.8 29.1 15.5 32.8 41.0 44.6 36.1 46.1 55.4 49.9 53.7 52.6 58.1 49.2 58.1 63.9 58.3 47.9 57.9 67.9 70.9 66.8 59.7 70.9 73.8 61.0 57.0 59.6 73.2 91.8 82.9 63.6 73.8 72.5 91.1 100.0 77.8 93.3 79.8 62.7 59.9 48.8 52.1 55.9 36.2 34.4 60.3 59.1 58.2 57.3 56.5 57.2 56.4 55.5 54.6 53.7 53.2 52.9 52.5 51.9 51.9 51.5 51.3 51.0 50.6 50.6 50.0 49.8 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.5 49.2 48.9 49.1 49.9 49.9 49.9 50.4 50.5 51.0 51.2 51.5 51.9 52.2 52.7 52.7 53.3 54.0 54.4 54.6 54.6 54.4 54.7 54.3 53.9 53.9 53. 6 100.0 89.5 81.6 73.7 66.7 72.8 65.8 57.9 50.0 42.1 37.7 35.1 31.6 l 26.3 26.3 22.8 21.1 18.4 14.9 14.9 9.6 7.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 5.3 2.6 0.0 1.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 13.2 14.0 18.4 20.2 22.8 26.3 28.9 33.3 33.3 38.6 44.7 48.2 50.0 50.0 48.2 50.9 47.4 43.9 43.9 41.2 51.5 92.2 51.9 100.0 51.6 94.1 51.5 92.2 50.8 78.4 50.4 70.6 50.5 72.6 50.5 72.6 50.5 72.6 50.0 62.7 50.1 64.7 49.7 56.9 49.3 49.0 49.2 47.1 49.1 45.1 48.7 37.3 48.5 33.3 48.5 33.3 48.1 25.5 47.6 15.7 9.8 47.3 5.9 47.1 5.9 47.1 0.0 46.8 7.8 47.2 47.8 19.6 47.9 21.6 47.8 19.6 47.4 11.8 5.9 47.1 9.8 47.3 47.4 11.8 47.9 21.6 48.0 23.5 48.6 35.3 48.3 29.4 48.3 29.4 48.4 31.4 47.8 19.6 48.6 35.3 48.7 37.3 48.8 39.2 48.6 35.3 48.4 31.4 48.2 27.5 48.9 41.2 49.6 54.9 50.8 78.4 50.5 72.6 50.3 68.6 50.3 68.6 49.9 60.8 Per ct. 11.83 6.1 78.6 11.94 6.2 85.7 12.20 6.3 92.9 11.65 6.0 71.4 11.41 5.8 57.1 10.31 5.2 14.3 9.90 5.0 0.0 10.29 5.2 14.3 11.48 5.8 57.1 11.40 5.7 50.0 11.57 5.8 57.1 11.06 5.5 35.7 10.75 5.3 21.4 10.56 5.2 14.3 11.40 5.6 42.9 11.49 5.6 42.9 11.75 5.7 50.0 11.34 5.5 35.7 11.01 5.3 21.4 11.34 5.4 28.6 12.47 5.9 64.3 12.95 6.1 78.6 12.52 5.9 64.3 11.96 5.6 42.9 12.50 5.9 64.3 12.13 5.8 57.1 12.52 6.0 71.4 12.34 5.9 64.3 12.86 6.1 78.6 12.52 5.9 64.3 12.89 6.1 78.6 12.23 5.8 57.1 12.31 5.9 64.3 12.50 6.0 71.4 13.17 6.4 100.0 5.9 64.3 j 12.21 5.2 14.3 10.76 5.0 0.0 10.33 5.6 42.9 11.71 6.1 78.6 12.55 5.5 35.7 11.29 5.5 35.7 11.27 5.4 28.6 11.11 5.3 21.4 10.95 5.0 10.37 0.0 6.0 71.4 12.26 6.3 92.9 12.70 6.1 78.6 12.00 5.8 57.1 11. 48 5.7 50.0 11.33 5.8 57.1 11.53 5.8 57.1 11.62 a The figures for amounts were collected directly from the New Orleans clearing-house banks by the National Monetary Commission. & The schedule of months is based upon a year in which January 1st falls upon the first day of the week. Cf. p . 13, note (&). c For method of computing index numbers cf. pp. 13-15 and 22. d These index numbers are the reverse of those in the preceding column, the sum of the two for each week always equaling 100. e Average figures by weeks for the period 1899-1908 are given in Table VII of the Text (p. 41). Ratio, c 59.0 62.4 70.3 53.5 46.2 12.5 0.0 11.9 48.3 45.9 51.1 35.5 26.0 20.2 45.9 48.6 56.6 44.0 33.9 44.0 78.6 93.3 80.1 63.0 79.5 68.2 80.1 74.6 90.5 80.1 91.4 71.3 73.7 79.5 100.0 70.6 26.3 13.1 55.4 81.0 42.5 41.9 37.0 32.1 14.4 72.2 85.6 64.2 48.3 43.7 49.8 52.6 Relative demand for money.d 41.0 37.6 29.7 46.5 53.8 87.5 100.0 88.1 51.7 54.1 48.9 64.5 74.0 79.8 54.1 51.4 43.4 56.0 66.1 56.0 21.4 6.7 19.9 37.0 20.5 31.8 19.9 25.4 9.5 19.9 8.6 28.7 26.3 20.5 0.0 29.4 73.7 86.9 44.6 19.0 57.5 58.1 63.0 67.9 85.6 27.8 14.4 35.8 51.7 56.3 50.2 47.4 SEASONAL DEMAND FOR MONEY AND CAPITAL. 1907-8. A P P E N D I X F . — S A N FRANCISCO CLEARING H O U S E BANKS, TABLE 8.—Seasonal variations 275 in the loans, deposits, reserves, and the ratio of reserves to deposits, of the clearing-house for the years 1907 and 1908." banks of San Francisco [ A m o u n t s expressed in millions of dollars.] 1908 « 1907 Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves to deposits. Loans. Deposits. Reserves (specie a n d legal tenders). R a t i o of reserves t o deposits. M o n t h a n d week. 6 Index numbers. Index numbers. Index [Index Index' Amount. num- Amount. num- Amount. num-| Ratio. ber, c ber.c ber, c 102.7 96.9 102.8 97.4 102.9 97.9 103.3 100.0 102.1 93.8 101.4 90.1 99.9 82.3 100.0 82.8 99.7 81.3 100.2 83.9 100.7 86.5 99.9 82.3 101.3 89.6 101.9 92.7 101.7 91.7 101.0 88.0 100.6 85.9 99.5 80.2 97.1 67.7 96.8 66.1 96.4 64.1 95.9 61.5 95.4 58.9 95.5 59.4 94.6 54.7 94.0 51.6 93.6 49.5 93.7 50.0 93.9 51.0 94.1 52.1 93.2 47.4 93.8 50.5 94.4 53.6 94.9 56.3 95.1 57.3 95.2 57.8 94.3 53.1 94.9 56.3 94.1 52.1 93.0 46.4 93.3 47.9 94.6 54.7 93.4 48.4 90.1 31.3 88.8 24.5 89.1 26.0 88.0 20.3 87.1 15.6 86.3 11.5 7.3 85.5 4.7 85.0 0.0 84.1 138.3 100.0 134.8 92.8 134.4 92.0 134.5 92.2 135.7 94.7 135.4 94.0 133.1 89.3 132.5 88.2 130.5 84.1 128.8 80.5 126.7 76.1 123.0 68.5 123.9 70.4 120.4 63.2 119.6 61.5 120.0 62.3 119.1 60.5 117.3 56.8 115.3 52.7 114.1 50.2 113.6 49.2 114.5 51.0 112.0 45.9 111.9 45.7 112.0 45.9 111.5 44.9 45.3 111.7 44.4 111.3 43.8 111.0 41.6 109.9 39.9 109.1 39.5 108.9 41.4 109.8 38.3 108.3 41.2 109.7 38.5 108.4 36.8 107. 6 38.9 108.6 40.5 109.4 38.1 108.2 38.3 108.3 43.8 111. 0 38.3 108.3 20.2 99. 5 13.2 96.1 9.5 94.3 6.2 92.7 3.5 91.4 1.2 90.3 1.7 90.5 0.8 90.1 0.0 89.7 17.5 92.5 17.6 94.0 17.8 97.0 17.9 98.5 16.7 80.6 18.0 100.0 17.3 89.6 17.0 85.1 15.4 61.2 15.4 61.2 14.3 44.8 14.6 49.3 15.8 67.2 13.9 38.8 13.9 38.8 14.4 46.3 13.9 38.8 11.6 4.5 14.0 40.3 12.6 19.4 13.4 31.3 14.7 50.7 12.9 23.9 13.8 37.3 13.8 37.3 14.6 49.3 14.0 40.3 15.8 67.2 16.8 82.1 17.5 92.6 16.2 73.1 14.6 49.3 15.9 68.7 13.9 38.8 15.1 56.7 13.6 34.3 13.2 28.4 13.3 29.9 14.7 50.7 13.8 37.3 13.1 26.9 35.8 12.0 10.4 12.0 10.4 11.3 12.5 14.0 15.3 15.7 16.7 17.9 17.8 0.0 17.9 40.3 59.7 65.7 80.6 Per ct. 12.65 13.06 13.24 13.31 12.30 13.29 12.99 12.83 11.80 11.96 11.29 11.87 12.75 11.54 11.62 12.00 11.67 9.88 12.14 11.04 11.80 12.84 11.52 12.33 12.32 13.09 12.53 14.19 15.13 15.92 14.85 13.40 14.48 12.83 13.76 12.54 12.27 12.25 13.44 12. 75 12.09 12.34 11.08 12.06 11.76 13.15 15.10 16.74 17.3