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BEEERAL RESERVE BANK O ST. LOUIS F Review Subject Index January 1960 - December 1979 TABIE CF OONTEMTS PAGE NUM BER Agricultural Capital Agricultural Credit Agricultural Efficiency Agricultural Income Agricultural Outlook Agricultural Population Agricultural Prices Agricultural Production Agricultural Trade Annual Report of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Automobile Sales Balance of Payments Bank Holding Companies Bank Reserves Banking Banking Regulations Capital Central Mississippi Valley Check Clearing and Payment Credit Market, Consumer Credit Market, General Euunumic Developments Debt Management Demand Deposits Discount Mechanism Econometrics Economic Growth Employment Energy Eurodollars Federal Budget Federal Open Market Committee (FCM2) Federal Reserve Systems Actions Financial Futures Fiscal Policy Food Prices Foreign Exchange Germany Gold Government Securities Great Britain Housing Hunt Commission Report Indexation Inflation Interest Rates International - 2- 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 23 24 25 26 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 54 56 International Capital Flows International Economies international Monetary System International Reserves Inventories Investment, Domestic Investment, Foreign Jgbor Liquidity Member Banks, Eighth District Member Banks, Federal Reserve System Mexico Monetary Base Monetary Policy Monetary Theory Money Demand Money Market Morey Supply Mortgage Futures National Income Accounting Opefaticner -of -the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Phillips' Curve Population Presidents* Speeches Price Expectations Prices Productivity Profits Real Money Balances Recession Recovery Regulation Q Reserve Requirements Reserves to Support Private Deposits (RPDs) Saint Louis Model Saint Louis (Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area) Savings Seasonal Patterns Stabilization Policy, Domestic Stabilization Polity, International Stock Market Taxes Time Deposits Trade Unemployment Urban Economics Usury Laws Value Added Taxes Velocity of Money Wages Welfare Economics -3 - 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 73 74 75 76 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 AGRICULTURAL CAPITAL Farm Land Values Cotton Acreage A llotm ents Farm C apital The Farm P ro b lem ... What Are th e Choices? Changes in the S tru cture of A g ricu ltu re Growth in Farm C ap ital Slackens Farm Land P rices Advance Farm Land P r ic e s R isin g Farmland P rices and F a llin g Farm Earnings: I s A g ricu ltu re in Trouble? The "Danger" From Foreign Ownership o f U .S. Farmland -4 - J u l. 1960 J u l. 1960 Oct. 1960 Feb. 1961 Sep. 1961 Nov. 1961 Aug. 1963 O ct. 1965 May 1978 Jan. 1979 AGRICULTURAL CREDIT Farm C apital The Farm Problem . . . What are th e Choices? Growth in Farm C apital Slackens Farm C apital Rose in 1961 Recent Trends in Farm C redit R isin g I n te r e s t Rates and A g ricu ltu re Farm C redit Developments in the C entral M iss is sip p i V a lley Changing Sources o f Farm C redit -5 - Oct. Feb. Nov. O ct. Jun. Nov. J u l. Feb. 1960 1961 1961 1962 1965 1966 1967 1968 AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCY Changes in the Farm Population Cotton Acreage A llotm ents The Farm Problem . . . What are the Choices? Changes in th e Structure o f A g ricu ltu re L iv esto ck Inventory — January 1 , 1962 Trends in Meat Packing Farm P rice Supports at Cost of Production -6 - May J u l. Feb. Sep. Apr. Nov. Dec. 1960 1960 1961 1961 1962 1963 1977 AGRICULTURAL INCOME The Farm Problem . . . What are the Choices? Farm P rices and Income During th e Recent B usiness D eclin e Growth in Farm C apital Slackens Farm Income in th e E ighth D i s t r i c t Income Per Farm in C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y S ta te s Per Capita Income of th e Farm P op ulation Farm Income R ises Markedly Farm Income and P r ic e Trends Farm Income D e clin es Farm Income R ises Farm Income P rospects Outlook fo r Farm Income and Food P r ic e s Outlook fo r Farm Income in 1977 Free Trade: A Major Factor in U .S. Farm Income R isin g Farmland P rices and F a llin g Farm Earnings: I s A g ricu ltu re in Trouble? The "Danger" From Foreign Ownership of U .S. Farmland -7 - Feb. May Nov. Sep. Apr. Sep. Jan. Aug. Jan. Sep. Mar. Apr. Feb. Mar. 1961 1961 1961 1962 1964 1964 1966 1967 1968 1968 1969 1972 1977 1977 May 1978 Jan. 1979 AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK "A gricu ltu ral Development s" Farm Outlook Farm Income in 1959 L ivestock and P ou ltry In v en to ries Farm Real E sta te Values The A g r ic u ltu r a l S itu a tio n The Farm Outlook fo r 1961 Farm Outlook fo r 1962 P ro sp ectiv e Crop P lan tin gs Outlook fo r Farming in 1963 Outlook fo r Farming in 1964 A g r icu ltu r a l C onditions in th e C entral M is s is s ip p i V a lley A g ricu ltu ra l S itu a tio n and Prospects A g ricu ltu re a t M id-year A g ricu ltu re A fter Mid-year P rosp ective P r ic e s fo r Food and Farm Products in 1967 Outlook fo r Farm Income and Food Prices" Food and A gricu ltu re in 1973 The 1974 Outlook fo r Food and A g ricu ltu re Prospects fo r Food and A gricu ltu re in 1975 Food Production and P rices — P e r sp ec tiv e and Outlook Outlook fo r A gricu ltu re Food and Population: A Long View Outlook fo r Food and A gricu ltu re 1979 Food and A g r icu ltu r a l Outlook Outlook fo r Food and A g ricu ltu re — 1980 -8 - Mar. Apr. Dec. Dec. May Dec. Dec. Oct. Dec. J u l. Aug. J an. Apr. May Mar. Mar. Jan. Feb. May Jan. Feb. Dec. 1960 1960 1960 1961 1962 1962 1963 1964 1964 1965 1966 1967 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1976 1976 1978 1979 1979 AGRICULTURAL POPULATION Changes in Farm Population The Farm Problem . . . What are th e Choices? Changes in the Structure of A g ricu ltu re Food and P opulation: A Long View -9 - May Feb. Sep. May 1960 1961 1961 1976 AGRICULTURAL PRICES Farm Commodity Surpluses The Farm Problem . . . What are th e Choices? Farm P r ic e s and Income During the Recent B usiness D eclin e Hogs and Beef C a ttle P r ic es Beef C a ttle P r ic es L ivestock P r ic es Farm Land P rices The Russian Wheat Deal — H indsight v s . F o resig h t The Futures Market for Farm Commodities — What I t Can Mean to Farmers Food: Outlook Favorable fo r Consuners Farm P r ic e Supports a t Cost o f Production Outlook fo r Food and A g ricu ltu re -1 0 - Jan. Feb. May May Jun. Aug. O ct. O ct. 1960 1961 1961 1963 1964 1964 1965 1973 Aug. Apr. Dec. Jan. 1974 1977 1977 1978 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Farm Commodity Surpluses Changes in th e Farm P op ulation The Farm Problem . . . What are the Choices? Farm P r ic e s and Income During th e Recent B usiness D eclin e Changes in the Structure of A g ricu ltu re L iv esto ck Inventory — January 1, 1962 Farm Products in the C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y Food Production and P r ic e s — P ersp ectiv e and Outlook Food and Population: A Long View Farm P r ic e Supports a t Cost o f Production Outlook fo r Food and A gricu ltu re -1 1 - Jan. May Feb. May Sep. Apr. Jan. Jan. May Dec. Jan. 1960 1960 1961 1961 1961 1962 1965 1976 1976 1977 1978 AGRICULTURAL TRACE The Farm Problem . . . What are the Choices? Farm Commodity Exports [1960-61 1 Farm Caamodity Exports and In te r n a tio n a l Trade P o lic y The R ussian Wheat Deal — H indsight v s . F o resig h t Grain Export Quotas: The Short View and the Long Grain Exports and I n f la t io n Free Trade: A Major F actor i n U . S. Farm Income Imports and Jobs — The Observed and th e Unobserved R isin g Farm Exports and In te r n a tio n a l Trade P o lic e s -i? - Feb. May May O ct. O ct. Sep. Mar. Jun. J u l. 1961 1962 1964 1973 1974 1975 1977 1978 1979 ANNUAL REPORTS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS The Role of a Federal Reserve Bank: An Annual Review Operations of th e Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis in 1961An Annual Report 1962 Annual Report of th e Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis Annual Statement of Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis 1964 Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank o f S t . Louis Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank o f S t . L ou is, 1965 Annual Report of Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank o f S t . Louis - 1967 Operations of th e Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis - 1968 Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank o f S t . Louis - 1969 Operations of th e Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis - 1970 Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank of S t . Louis - 1971 Operations o f th e Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis - 1972 Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank of S t . Louis - 1973 Operations of th e Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis - 1974 Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank o f S t . Louis - 1975 Operations of th e Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis - 1976 Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank o f S t . Louis - 1977 Operations o f th e Federal Reserve Bank o f S t. Louis - 1978 -1 3 - Feb. 1960 Feb. 1962 Feb. 1963 Feb. 1964 Feb. 1965 Feb. 1966 Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Apr. J an. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 AUTOM OBILE SALES Automobile S ales in P e r sp ec tiv e Jun. 1976 -1 4 - BALANCE OF PAWBNTS What Ls a Balance of Payments? The United S ta te s Balance o f Payments, 1946-1960 The In te r n a tio n a l Payments System In te r n a tio n a l Comparisons The U .S. Balance-of-Paym ents S itu a tio n : 1963 Measurement of a N a tio n 's Balance o f Payments The U nited S ta te s as World Banker 1966 Balance o f Payments in P e rsp ectiv e Monetary P o lic y , Balance o f Payments, and B usiness C ycles — The Foreign Experience U .S. Balance of Payments in 1968 How to In terp ret the Balance o f Payments Accounts Summary of U .S. Balance o f Payments, 1969 Summary o f U .S. Balance o f Payments, 1970 D o lla r s, D e f i c i t s , and the In te r n a tio n a l Monetary System The New Look fo r the Balance o f Payments Regional and M u ltila te r a l Dimensions of the U nited S ta te s Balance o f Payments Balance of Payments Problems and P o lic ie s in 1971 Foreign Exchange and U .S . Balance-of-Paym ents Developments in 1972 and E arly 1973 Balance-of-Paym ents D e f ic it : Measurement and In te r p r e ta tio n Balance-of-Paym ents Concepts — What Do They R ea lly Mean? The U .S. Balance o f Payments During 1974 A Monetary View of the Balance of Payments U .S. In te r n a tio n a l Trade and F in a n cia l Developments in 1976 O il Imports and the F a ll of the D ollar Money-Income R e la tio n sh ip s and th e Exchange Rate Regime Budget D e f ic it s and Trade D e f ic it s : I s There a Link? -1 5 - Jun. Mar. May Aug. Sep. Mar. Sep. Dec. 1960 1961 1962 1962 1963 1964 1966 1966 Nov. Dec. Dec. Apr. Apr. J u l. Aug. 1967 1968 1968 1970 1971 1971 1971 Nov. 1971 Apr. 1972 Apr. Nov. J u l. Dec. Apr. Dec. Aug. Aug. Oct. 1973 1973 1974 1974 1975 1976 1978 1978 1978 BANK HOLDING COMPANIES Trust Revenue o f Commercial Banks: The Influ en ce o f Bank H olding Companies Branching, Holding Companies, and Banking C oncentration in th e Eighth D is t r ic t Economic Forces Facing the Bank H olding Company Movement Have Multibank H olding Companies A ffe c te d Commercial Bank Performance? -1 6 - Jun. 1974 J u l. 1974 Sep. 1974 Apr. 1978 BANK RESERVES Some O bservations on Excess R eserves a t Member Banks Bank R eserves and C redit Expand Member Bank R eserves and the Money Supply R eserves: D e fin itio n s Bank Loans and Investm en ts, 1951-1963 RPDs and Other Reserve Operating Targets D erivation of Monetary Base Does th e Federal Reserve In v est Member Bank Reserves B e n e fits of Borrowing from the Federal Reserve when the D iscount Rate i s Below Market I n te r e s t Rates A ltern a te Measures of the Monetary Base Repurchase Agreements TTL Note Accounts and the Money Supply Process -1 7 - Oct. Oct. Mar. Sep. O ct. Aug. Nov. J u l. 1960 1961 1962 1963 1963 1972 1976 1978 Mar. Jun. Sep. O ct. 1979 1979 1979 1979 BANKING Developments in the Stru ctu re of Banking Trends in Commercial Banking, 1945-1965 Bank Borrowing in the E ighth Federal Reserve D i s t r i c t , 1963-1965 Floor and C e ilin g s : G uidelines and Understandings in Comnercial Banking — Remarks by George W. M itc h e ll Banking Markets for B usiness Firms in the S t . Louis Area Banks and R isin g I n te r e s t Rates D eposit I n te r e s t Rate R egulation and Com petition fo r Personal Funds Determinants of Commercial Bank Growth The Hunt Commission Report — An Economic View The Changing Com petition Between Commercial Banks and T h r ift I n s t it u t io n s fo r D ep osits Bank F a ilu r es and P ublic P o lic y Bank Financing o f th e Recovery Development of E le c tr o n ic Funds T ransfer Systems U t iliz a t io n o f Federal Reserve Bank S erv ices by Member Banks: Im p lication s for the C osts and B e n e fits of Membership The Growing S im ila r ity Among F in a n cia l I n s t it u t io n s E ffe c ts of I n te r e s t on Demand D ep o sits: Im p lica tio n s of o f Compensating Balances Bank Reserve Requirements and T heir Enforcement: A Comparison A cross S ta te s Have Multibank H olding Companies A ffected Commercial Bank Performance? Does the Federal Reserve In v e st Member Bank Reserves? E ffe c tiv e n e ss o f S ta te Reserve Requirements Automatic T ransfers and the Money Supply Process -1 8 - Apr. 1962 Aug. 1965 May 1965 May 1966 Sep. 1966 Oct. 1966 Nov. 1966 Dec. 1971 Jun. 1972 J u l. Nov. J u l. Sep. 1975 1975 1976 1976 Aug. 1977 O ct. 1977 Nov. 1977 Mar. 1978 Apr. J u l. Sep. Feb. 1978 1978 1978 1979 BANKING REGULATIONS Floors and C e ilin g s : G uidelines and Understandings in Commercial Banking — Remarks by George W. M itc h e ll D eposit I n te r e s t Rate R egulation and Com petition for P ersonal Funds I n te r e s t Rate C ontrols — P e r sp e c tiv e , Purpose, and Problems The A dm inistration o f R egulation Q The Hunt Commission Report — An Economic View Bank R eserve Requirements and Their Enforcement: A Comparison Across S ta te s E ffe c tiv e n e ss o f S ta te R eserve Requirements -1 9 - May 1966 Nov. Sep. Feb. Jun. 1966 1968 1970 1972 Mar. 1978 Sep. 1978 CAPITAL C apital Markets and I n te r e s t Rates in 1970 A Guide to C apital O utlays in th e Current Recovery Inventory Investment in the Recent R ecession and Recovery I n fla t io n and Taxes: D is in c e n tiv e s fo r C ap ital Formation R isin g Farmland P rices and F a llin g Farm Earnings: I s A gricu ltu re in Trouble? Taxation o f C apital Gains: P r in c ip le V e r s u s P r a c tic e Energy P r ic es and C ap ital Formation: 1972-1977 I n fla tio n and Personal Saving: An Update The P ro d u ctiv ity Problem -2 0 - Mar. Feb. Apr. Jan. 1971 1977 1977 1978 May O ct. May. Aug. Sep. 1978 1978 1979 1979 1979 CENTRAL MESSRSIPPI VALLEY D is t r ic t Banking A c t iv it y in the L ast H alf of 1959 D is t r ic t Developments D is t r ic t Data Eighth F ederal R eserve D i s t r i c t Data D is tr ic t Data Eighth Federal R eserve D is t r ic t Data Eighth Federal Reserve D is t r i c t Data Eighth F ederal R eserve D i s t r i c t Data Eighth Federal Reserve D is t r ic t Data Review o f D is t r ic t Developments in 1961 D is t r ic t Developments D is t r ic t B usiness A c t iv it y E ighth Federal Reserve D is t r ic t C it ie s E ighth D is t r ic t B usiness Loans Economic In d ica to rs lE ig ^ th D is t r ic t ] Employment in th e S t. Louis M etrop olitan Area, 1950-1962 1962 Economic Developments in the E ighth Federal Reserve D is t r ic t Spending i n SixM edium -Size D is t r ic t C it ie s Economic Improvements in Major M etrop olitan Areas of th e D is t r ic t L o u is v ille Employment: 1952-1963 Local B usiness A c t iv it y Has Increased Economic In d ic a to r s — E v a n s v ille , S p rin g fie ld 1963 Economic Developments in the C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y Income Per Farm in C entral M is s is s ip p i V a lley S ta te s Value Added by M anufacture, C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y M etrop olitan A reas, 1957-1964 Economic Pause in C entral M ississip p i V a lle y A g r icu ltu r a l C onditions in th e C entral M is s is s ip p i V a lley Employment and Population Trends in the C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y Economic In d ica to rs — S t . Louis and L o u is v ille 1964 Economic Developments in th e C entral M is s is s ip p i V a lle y Farm Products in the C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y Earnings and Expenses of C entral M is s is s ip p i V a lley Banks During 1964 Recent Economic Trends in Four M etrop olitan Areas Employment Growth i n the C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y Spending i n F iv e D i s t r i c t C it ie s Economic Expansion in C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y C it ie s A gricu ltu re in th e C enteral M is s is s ip p i V a lley The C entral M iss is sip p i V a lley : A Review of 1965 -2 1 - Jan. Dec. Jun. J u l. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. May J u l. Aug. Sep. O ct. Dec. 1960 1960 1961 1961 1961 1961 1961 1961 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 Feb. 1963 Mar. 1963 May Jun. Aug. O ct. Feb. Apr. 1963 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 Jun. 1964 Aug. 1964 O ct. 1964 Nov. Nov. Jan. Jan. 1964 1964 1965 1965 Apr. May J u l. Aug. Sep. Sep. Jan. 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1966 CENTRAL M ISSISSIPPI VALLEY (CONTINUED) Economic Treads in M is s is s ip p i Bank Borrowings in th e Eighth Federal R eserve D i s t r i c t , 1963-1965 Banking Markets fo r B usiness Firms in th e S t. Louis Area Recent Employment Trends in the C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y 1966: A Year of Continued Expansion in th e C entral M is s is s ip p i V a lle y Bank D eposit Growth in th e Eighth Federal R eserve D is t r ic t Economic Progress in the C entral M iss is sip p i V a lle y Economic A c tiv ity Slows in th e C entral M is s is s ip p i V alley in 1967 Economic Expansion in th e C entral M is s is s ip p i V a lley Employment Growth in S t . Louis -2 2 - Apr. 1966 May Sep. O ct. 1966 1966 1966 Jan. Feb. Sep. 1967 1967 1967 Jan. 1968 Nov. 1972 Aug. 1973 CH ECK CLEARING AND PAYM ENT Machine Check C learin g Operatings o f th e Federal Reserve Bank o f S t . — An Annual Report Check Payments Check Payments Check Payments Federal Reserve "Float" Automated Check P rocessin g Development of E le c tr o n ic Funds T ransfer Systems -2 3 - May Louis in Feb. Apr. May Jun. Nov. Jun. Sep. 1960 1961 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1967 1976 CREDIT MARKET, CONSUMER Consumer In stallm en t C redit A H is to r ic a l A n alysis o f th e C redit Crunch of 1966 Strong C redit Demands, But No "Crunch" in E arly 1973 CREDIT MARKET, GENERAL The Federal Funds Market Bank R eserves and C redit Expand B usiness Expands and Bank C red it R ises Changing Seasonal P attern s: I n te r e s t R a tes, C red it, and Money Bank Loans and In vestm en ts, 1951-1963 Bank Loans, 1961-1964 Bank C red it Expansion Accompanies Economic Advance Strong T otal Demand, R isin g I n te r e s t R a tes, and Continued A v a ila b ilit y of C redit Total Demand, C redit Demand, and I n te r e s t Rates T otal Demand, C red it Flow s, and Money Changing C redit C onditions Monetary A c tio n s, C red it Flows and I n fla t io n C redit Flows and Recent I n te r e s t Rate Trends A H is to r ic a l A n a ly sis o f the C red it Crunch o f 1966 S e le c t iv e C redit — No S u b stitu te fo r Monetary R e str a in t S o cia l P r io r it ie s and the Market A llo c a tio n of C redit Strong C redit Demands, But No "Crunch" in Early 1973 The 1975-76 Federal D e f ic it s and the C red it Market Treasury B i l l Futures Market and Market E xpectations of I n te r e st Rates Debt-Management P o lic y and th e Own P r ic e E la s t ic it y o f Demand for U .S. Government Notes and Bonds D isin term ed iation : An Old D isorder w ith a New Remedy -2 5 - Apr. Oct. Feb. Aug. O ct. O ct. May 1960 1961 1962 1963 1963 1964 1965 Aug. Sep. Nov. Feb. Apr. J u l. Sep. Dec. May Jun. Jan. 1966 1966 1966 1967 1969 1969 1969 1969 1971 1973 1977 Jun. 1977 Sep. 1977 Jan. 1979 CURRENT/RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Recent B usiness and F in a n cia l Developments B usiness and F in a n cia l Developments 9%Jan. & Feb.^s F inancial H ig h lig h ts S e c u r itie s Market D is t r ic t Banking B usiness and F in a n cia l Developments B usiness and F in a n cia l Developments B usiness C onditions F in an cial Developments S t a b ilit y in Economic A c t iv it y Continues F in an cial Developments Current Economic Developments In d u str ia l Production D eclin es in Third Quarter Changes Since th e S t e e l S tr ik e — Inventory F lu c tu a tio n s; F in an cial Developments Recent Monetary A ction s: Domestic B usiness Developments; United S ta te s Balance of Payments; Monetary Developments F in a n cia l H ig h lig h ts o f 1960 Current F in a n cia l and B usiness Developments Signs of a B usiness Turn? Economic Outlook Brightens Current Developments: Money Supply Expands; B usiness A c tiv ity Improves Economic H ig h lig h ts: B usiness A c t iv it y R ises a t Slower Rate; Growth in the Money Supply Slackens B usiness and F in a n cia l Developments: B usiness Expansion Continues; Rate o f Monetary Expansion D eclin es B usiness and F in a n cia l Developments: Consumer Buying Lags; Monetary Expansion Continues The Background o f F in a n cia l Developments: A c ce le ra tio n of B usiness A c t iv it y F in an cial and Monetary Developments: In crease o f th e Money Supply Recent F in a n cia l Developments B usiness Improves M oderately Current Problems Facing th e U n ites S ta te s Economy Current Economic Trends A P lateau in Economic A c tiv ity L i t t l e Change in B usiness A c tiv ity 1962 — A Year th e Economy Marked Time B usiness and F in a n cia l C onditions at the Turn of the Year Economic A c t iv it y Continues Unchanged The P lateau in B usiness A c t iv it y -2 6 - Jan. 1960 Feb. 1960 Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jun. J u l. J u l. Sep. O ct. 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 Nov. 1960 Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. May 1960 1961 1961 1961 1961 Jun. 1961 J u l. 1961 Sep. 1961 Nov. 1961 Dec. 1961 Dec. May May Sep. O ct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 1961 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1963 1963 1963 1963 CURRENT/RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS (CONTINUED) B usiness and F in a n cia l Developments B usiness A c t iv it y , th e Money Market, and Monetary Developments Economic A c t iv it y Continues to Expand U ncertain Pace o f Economic A c tiv ity N ational Economic Developments Economic Expansion Continues Economic Outlook Economic Expansion Continues Further Expansion in Economic A c tiv ity N ation al Economy Advances Production and Money Expand Rapidly — With N either P rice I n fla t io n nor I n te r e s t Rate In crea ses 1964: Fourth Year of Economic Expansion Economic A c t iv it y Continues to Advance In Early 1965 — Monetary Expansion Slows and F is c a l Developments are Changed Economic Expansion Continues Economic Expansion Has Moderated 1965: Monetary Growth, Real Product Growth, P rice In crea ses I s T otal Demand Too High? Spending, P roduction, and P rices R ise R apidly P r o sp e r ity , P r e ssu r e s, and P r ic es Total Demand, P r ic e s , and Real Growth T otal Demand and I n f la t io n 1966 — A Year of E x cessiv e Demands and T heir Control P r iv a te Demand Weakens Economic A c t iv it y Weakens The Domestic Economy in T ra n sitio n Pause in Economic Expansion Continues Saving, Investment and Economic Outlook Economic A c t iv it y A c celera tes Economic A c tiv ity Expanding More R apidly Money, I n te r e s t R a tes, P r ic e s , and Output Economic Pause, A c c e le r a tio n , and E xcesses: 1967 in R etrospect Production, Income, and Spending A c celera te E xcessive Demand Slowing? R estrain in g th e Growth o f T o ta l Spending Real Growth and P rices Monetary and F in a n cia l Developments 1970 — Economy in T ra n sitio n Current S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic y The 1971 N ational Economic Plan -2 7 - Jun. Sep. O ct. Nov. Dec. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Sep. 1963 1963 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 Nov. 1964 Dec. 1964 Apr. Jun. J u l. Dec. Feb. Mar. Apr. Jun. J u l. Dec. Jan. Mar. May J u l. Aug. Sep. O ct. Nov. 1965 1965 1965 1965 1966 1966 1966 1966 1966 1966 1967 1967 1967 1967 1967 1967 1967 1967 Dec. Feb. Sep. May Jun. Nov. Dec. Jan. Mar. 1967 1968 1968 1969 1969 1970 1970 1971 1971 CURRENT/RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS (CONTINUED) Monetary Aggregates and Recent Economic Trends The Year 1970: A "Modest" Beginning fo r Monetary Aggregates 1971 - Year of Recovery and C ontrols The Economy in 1972 The 1972 N ational Economic Plan: An Experiment in F is c a l A ctivism The Economy and Monetary A ctions a t M id-year: Review and P rospects The Economic Outlook 1972 - A Year o f Rapid Economic Expansion B usiness Recovery Continues The 1973 N a tion al Economic Plan: Slowing the Boom Spending, P r ic e s , and Employment in E arly 1973 Strong C red it Demands, But No "Crunch" in Early 1973 The Problem o f Re-Entry to a High-Employment Economy Problems o f In te r p r e tin g Recent Monetary Developments B usiness Developments and S t a b iliz a t io n P o l ic ie s Economic Issu e s in 1974 Third Quarter B usiness Developments 1973 — A Year o f I n fla t io n The 1974 N ational Economic Plan: R iding Out the Storm Recent Economic Developments in P e r sp ec tiv e 1974 — A Year of I n f la t io n , Production Cutbacks and O il — Induced Payments D e f ic it s The 1975 N ational Economic Program: Another E x ercise in F is c a l A ctivism 1975 — Year of Economic Turnaround The 1976 Economic Report and th e F ederal Budget: Toward a Long-Run P e r sp ec tiv e Economic Pause — Some P e r sp ec tiv e and In te r p r e ta tio n The Early 1960s: A Guide to the Late 1970s Economic Goals fo r 1981: A Monetary A n a ly sis A P ersp ective on the Economy: Three Years of Expansion P i t f u l l s to th e Current Expansion Economic Developments in 1978 E xplaining th e Economic Slowdown o f 1979: A Supply and Demand Approach -2 8 - Apr. May Dec. Feb. 1971 1971 1971 1972 Mar. 1972 Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Mar. May Jun. Jun. J u l. Aug. O ct. Nov. Dec. Mar. Sep. 1972 1972 1972 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 1973 1973 1974 1974 Dec. 1974 Mar. 1975 Jan. 1976 Apr. Dec. O ct. Nov. May J u l. Feb. 1976 1976 1977 1977 1978 1978 1979 O ct. 1979 DEBT M N G EN A A EM T Treasury B i l l s Treasury Debt Operations in th e F ir s t H alf of 1964 Federal Debt Lengthened Government Debt, Money, and Economic A c tiv ity I n te r e s t Rates and Monetary Growth Large F ederal Budget D e f ic it s : P e r sp ec tiv e s and P rospects Treasury B i l l s Futures Market and Market E xpectations of I n te r e s t R ates Debt-Management P o lic y and the Own P rice E l a s t i c i t y of Demand fo r U .S . Government Notes and Bonds Budget D e f ic it s and Trade D e f ic it s : I s There a Link? Government Debt Financing — I t s E ffe c ts in View o f Tax D iscou ntin g F ederal Agency Debt: Another Side o f F ederal Borrowing -2 9 - J u l. J u l. Feb. Jan. Jan. Oct. 1960 1964 1965 1972 1973 1976 Jun. 1977 Sep. 1977 Oct. 1978 J u l. 1979 Nov. 1979 D A D DEPOSITS EM N Currency and Demand D ep osits Adjustment of Demand D ep osit S e r ie s E ffe c ts of I n te r e s t on Demand D ep o sits: Im p lica tio n s of Compensating Balances Automatic T ransfers and the Money Supply Process TTL Note Accounts and th e Money Supply Process -3 0 - Mar. 1965 Sep. 1969 Nov. 1977 Feb. 1979 Oct. 1979 DISCOUNT M ECHANISM The Discount Mechanism and Monetary P o lic y The Discount Mechanism and th e 1961 Recovery Discount Rate Raised B en efits o f Borrowing From th e Federal Reserve when the Discount Rate i s Below Market I n te r e s t Rates Did D iscount Rate Changes A ffe c t th e Foreign Exchange Value of the D ollar During 1978? -3 1 - Sep. 1960 Oct. 1961 Aug. 1963 Mar. 1979 Apr. 1979 ECONOMETRICS The U sefu ln ess of Applied Econometrics to the Policymaker -3 2 - May 1973 ECONOMIC GROW TH Current Problems Facing the U nited S ta te s Economy Real Growth and P r ic es P op u lation , the Labor F orce, and P o te n tia l Output: Im p lication s fo r th e S t. Louis Model E ffe c ts of the New Energy Regime on Economic C apacity, Production, and P r ic es Energy Resources and P o te n tia l G NP E stim ates o f th e High-Employment Budget as Changes in P o te n tia l Output Comparing Per C apita Output I n te r n a tio n a lly : Has the United S ta te s Been Overtaken? Coordinated In te r n a tio n a l Economic Expansion: Are Convoys or Locomotives the Answer? Economic Growth and Unemployment: A R eappraisal o f the Conventional View Energy P r ic es and C ap ital Formation: 1972-1977 -3 3 - Sep. 1962 Jun. 1969 Feb. 1971 May 1977 Jun. 1977 Aug. 1977 May 1978 J u l. 1978 O ct. 1978 May 1979 EM Y ENT PLO M Labor Force and Employment — P r in cip a l D is t r ic t Labor Markets and U nited S ta te s Recent Employment Trends Employment and P op ulation Trends in P e r sp ec tiv e The R ela tio n Between P r ic es and Employment: Two Views S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic ie s and Employment P op u lation , the Labor F orce, and P o te n tia l Output: Im p lication s fo r th e S t . Louis Model High Employment Without I n fla t io n : On the Attainment of Admirable C oals Spending, P r ic e s , and Employment in E arly 1973 The Problem o f Re-Entry to a High-Employment Economy Imports and Jobs — The Observed and the Unobserved An Explanation of Movements in th e Labor Force P a r tic ip a tio n Rate, 1957-76 I n f la t io n , Unemployment and Money: Comparing th e Evidence from Two Simple Models Does th e Stage o f the B usiness C ycle A ffe c t th e I n fla t io n Rate? -3 4 - Jan. O ct. Nov. Mar. Feb. 1963 1964 1965 1969 1971 Feb. 1971 Sep. May Jun. Jun. 1971 1973 1973 1978 Aug. 1978 Sep. 1978 Sep. 1978 ENERGY In tern a tio n a l Trade and Finance Under the In flu en ce of O il — 1974 and Early 1975 O il P rice C ontrols: A Counterproductive E ffo r t E ffe c ts o f th e New Energy Regime on Economic C apacity, Production, and P rices Energy Resources and P o te n tia l CNP Nature and Orgin of the U .S. Energy C r is is O il Imports and th e F a ll o f th e D o lla r Energy P rices and C ap ital Formation: 1972-1977 The P ro d u ctiv ity Problem -3 5 - May 1975 Nov. 1975 May Jun. J u l. Aug. May Sep. 1977 1977 1977 1978 1979 1979 EURODOLLARS The In te r n a tio n a l Payments System The E urodollar Market The Eurodollar Market: Some F ir s t P r in c ip le s Does E urodollar Borrowing Improve th e D o lla r 's Exchange Value? -3 6 - May Dec. J u l. Aug. 1962 1963 1971 1979 FEDERAL BUDGET Treads in Government Expenditures Budgets o f th e Federal Government Trends in Government Expenditures I n te r e s t R a tes, Budget P o lic y , and Monetary P o licy Budget P o lic y in a High-Employment Economy The Federal Budget: A Mid-Year Review The Federal Budget and Economic S t a b iliz a tio n E stim ates o f th e High-Employment Budget: 1947-1967 The Federal Budget and S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic y in 1968 A Program o f Budget R e str a in t The Federal Budget and the Economy The 1971 N a tio n a l Economic Plan The Federal Budget: From Surplus to D e f ic i t Financing Government Through Monetary Expansion and I n fla t io n The 1976 Economic Report and the Federal Budget: Toward a Long-Run P e r sp ec tiv e Large Federal Budget D e f ic it s : P e r sp ec tiv e s and Prospects The 1975-76 Federal D e f ic it s and th e C redit Market E stim ates of the High-Employment Budget and Changes in P o te n tia l Output Government Debt F inancing — I t ' s E ffe c ts in View of Tax D iscounting Federal Agency Debt: Another Side o f Federal Borrowing -3 7 - Sep. J u l. Feb. Sep. Apr. Aug. Feb. Jun. Mar. Mar. Aug. Mar. Nov. Feb. 1960 1962 1965 1965 1966 1966 1967 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1975 Apr. 1976 O ct. 1976 J an. 1977 Aug. 1977 J u l . 1979 Nov. 1979 FEDERAL OPEN MARKET OOMMITTEE (FOMC) Federal Reserve Open Market T ransactions and the Money Supply Implementation o f Federal R eserve Open Market P o lic y in 1964 Federal Reserve Open Market O perations in 1965: O b jec tiv e s, A c tio n s, and Accomplishments 1966 - A Year of C hallenge fo r Monetary Management 1967 - A Year of C on strain ts on Monetary Management Federal Open Market Committee D ecisio n s in 1968 - A Year of Watchful W aiting Federal Open Market Committee D ecisio n s in 1969 - Year of Monetary R e str a in t The Year 1970 - A 'Modest' Beginning fo r Monetary Aggregates Monetary Expansion and Federal Open Market Committee O perating Strategy i n 1971 FOM P o lic y A ction s in 1972 C The Federal Open Market Committee in 1973 The FO C in 1974: Monetary P o lic y During Economic U ncertainty M The FO C in 1975: Announcing Monetary T argets M The FO C in 1976: P rogress A gainst I n f la t io n M The Federal Open Market Committee in 1977 The FO C in 1978: C la r ify in g th e R ole o f th e Aggregates M -3 8 - Apr. 1965 Jun. 1965 Jun. 1966 Apr. 1967 May 1968 May 1969 Jun. 1970 May 1971 Mar. Mar. Apr. Apr. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEMS ACTIONS The Role of a Federal Reserve Bank: An Annual Review Federal R eserve System A ction s During 1960 Federal Reserve System A ctions During 1961 Federal R eserve System A ction s During 1962 Federal Reserve System A ctions fo r Ten Months During 1962 F ederal R eserve System A ction s During 1962 Federal Reserve System A ction s During 1963 Federal R eserve System A ction s During 1969 Federal Reserve System A ction s During 1970 Monetary Developments in 1972 Federal Reserve System A ctions During 1972 Monetary Developments and System P o lic y A ction s in 1973 -3 9 - Feb. Jan. Jan. Aug. Nov. Jan. Jan. Dec. Dec. Jan. Jan. Feb. 1960 1961 1962 1962 1962 1963 1964 1969 1970 1973 1973 1974 FINANCIAL FUTURES Treasury B ill Futures Market and Market E xpectations of I n te r e s t Rates A Comparison of Y ield s on Future C ontracts and Im plied Forward Rates -4 0 - Jun. 1977 Dec. 1978 FISCAL POLICY Recovery Forces in the Economy Budgets o f th e Federal Government Continued Monetary and Economic Expansion Economic A c t iv it y Continues to Advance in Early 1965 — Monetary Expansion Slows and F is c a l Developments are L i t t l e Changed Recent Monetary and F is c a l Developments More S tim u la tiv e F is c a l P o lic y , Monetary P o lic y , and In te r n a tio n a l D isequilibrium F is c a l Ease and Monetary Growth Economic A c t iv it y Expanding More R apidly F is c a l R e str a in t, T otal Demand and Monetary P o lic y Total Demand, F is c a l R e s tr a in t, and Reduced Monetary Expansion An Approach to Monetary and F is c a l Management Monetary and F is c a l A ction s: A Test of T heir R e la tiv e Importance in Economic S t a b iliz a t io n A Program o f Budget R e str a in t Monetary and F is c a l A ctio n s: A T est o f T heir R e la tiv e Importance in Economic S t a b iliz a tio n - Comment - Reply R estrain in g th e Growth in T o ta l Spending Monetary and F is c a l In flu en ce s on Economic A c t iv it y — The H is to r ic a l Evidence The Federal Budget and the Economy Economic Slowdown and S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic y The 'Crowding Out' of P r iv a te Expenditures by F is c a l P o lic y A ctions S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic y and I n fla t io n F is c a l P o lic y fo r a Period o f T ra n sitio n Observations on S t a b iliz a t io n Management Current S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic y S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic ie s and Employment The 1971 N ation al Economic Plan The 1972 N ational Economic Plan: An Experiment in F is c a l A ctivism The Federal Budget: From Surplus to D e f ic it The Outlook fo r Changes in Federal T axation F is c a l and Monetary P o licy : O pportunities and Problems The 1973 N ation al Economic Plan: Slowing th e Boom The N ational Plan to Curb Unemployment and I n f la t io n B usiness Development and S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic ie s A Value Added Tax and F actors A ffe c tin g I t s Economic Impact Economic Issu e s in 1974 The 1974 N ational Economic Plan: R iding Out the Storm -4 1 - Feb. 1961 J u l. 1962 Jan. 1965 Apr. 1965 Aug. 1965 Sep. Oct. O ct. Aug. Nov. Nov. 1965 1965 1967 1968 1968 1968 Nov. Mar. 1968 1969 Apr. May 1969 1969 Nov. Aug. Sep. 1969 1970 1970 Oct. O ct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. 1970 1970 1970 1970 1971 1971 1971 Mar. Nov. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Aug. Sep. O ct. Mar. 1972 1972 1972 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 FISCAL POLICY (CONTINUED) How and Why F is c a l A ctions Matter to a M onetarist The 1975 N a tion al Economic Program: Another E xercise in F isc a l A ctivism Paying More Taxes and A ffording i t L ess The M onetary-Fiscal Mix Through Mid-1976 Crowding Out and I t s C r itic s 1975 — Year of Economic Turnaround The 1976 Economic Report and th e Federal Budget: Toward a Long-Run P e r sp ec tiv e The Crowing Link Between th e Federal Government and S ta te and Local Government F inancing Does th e S t . L ouis Equation Now B eliev e in F is c a l P o licy ? A Tax-Based Incomes P o lic y (TIP): What's I t A ll About? P i t f a l l s to th e Current Expansion Taxation o f C apital Gains: P r in c ip le Versus P r a c tic e The Economic Consequences o f W age-Price G u id elin es Form ulating Economic P o lic y fo r 1979 and Beyond: Old Problems and New C on strain ts -4 2 - May 1974 Mar. 1975 J u l. 1975 Aug. 1975 Dec. 1975 Jan. 1976 Apr. 1976 May Feb. Feb. J u l. O ct. Dec. 1977 1978 1978 1978 1978 1978 Apr. 1979 FOOD PRICES Trends in Meat Packing Meat P r ic e s Outlook fo r Farm Income and Food P rices Meat P r ic e s — Too High or About Right? Meat P r ic e s Food Production and P r ic e s — P e r sp ec tiv e s and Outlook Food: Outlook Favorable fo r Consumers Outlook fo r Food and A g ricu ltu re 1979 Food and A g r icu ltu r a l Outlook -4 3 - Nov. Aug. Apr. Oct. May Jan. Apr. Jan. Feb. 1963 1969 1972 1972 1973 1976 1977 1978 1979 FOREIGN EXCHANGE The In te r n a tio n a l Payments Syatem Recent Development in Government F oreign Exchange T ran saction s In tern a tio n a l Monetary Reform and the 'C rawling Peg' Toward a R ation al Exchange P o lic y : Some R e fle c tio n s on the B r itis h Experience The Case fo r F le x ib le Exchange R ates, 1969 In tern a tio n a l Monetary Reform and the 'Crawling Peg' — Comment — Reply More F l e x i b i l i t y on Exchange R ates - And in Methods The F le x ib le Exchange R ates: Gain or Loss to the U nited S ta te s Foreign Exchange and U .S. Balance o f Payments Developments in 1972 and Early 1973 Recent and P rosp ective Developments in In te r n a tio n a l Trade and Finance Foreign Trade and Exchange Rate Movements in 1975 U .S. D o lla rs in I n d u s tr ia liz e s Markets: M id-1970 to Mid-1976 The Mechanics of In te r v en tio n in Exchange Markets O il Imports and th e F a ll o f th e D o lla rs Money-Income R e la tio n sh ip s and the Exchange Rate Regime Budget D e f ic it s and Trade D e f ic it s : I s There a Link? Movements in the Foreign Exchange Value o f the D o lla r During th e Current U .S. Expansion Did D iscount Rate Changes A ffe c t the Foreign Exchange Value o f th e D o lla r During 1978? Do R isin g U .S. I n te r e s t Rates Imply a Stronger D ollar? Does E urodollar Borrowing Improve th e D o lla r 's Exchange Value? -4 4 - May 1962 Sep. 1962 Feb. 1969 Apr. 1969 Jun. 1969 J u l. 1969 Mar. 1970 Nov. 1971 Apr. 1973 May Jan. Aug. Feb. Aug. Aug. Oct. 1974 1976 1976 1978 1978 1978 1978 Nov. 1978 Apr. 1979 Jun. 1979 Aug. 1979 G MN ER A Y C o n tro llin g Money in an Open Economy: The German Case German Banks as F in a n cia l Department S to res The Postwar Economic System in Germany: C reation, E volu tion , and R eappraisal -4 5 - Apr. 1971 Nov. 1971 O ct. 1975 G LD O An Appropriate In te r n a tio n a l Currency — Gold D o lla r s , or SDR's The Monetary Economics of Cold Monetary E ffe c ts o f th e Treasury S a le o f Gold In te r n a tio n a l R eserves and the Role o f S p ecia l Drawing Rigjhts -4 6 - Aug. Jan. Jan. Jan. 1972 1974 1975 1978 COVERNtSNT SECURITIES Treasury B i l l s Commercial Bank L iq u id ity L iq u id ity Developments in Three B usiness C ycles L iquid A sse ts in th e Recovery Changes in S e le c te d L iquid A sse ts: 1951-1961 Movements in Time and Savings D e p o sits: 1951-1962 Treasury Debt Operations in the F ir s t H alf o f 1964 Treasury B i l l Futures Market and Market E xpectations of In te r e s t R ates Debt-Management P o lic y and th e Own P r ic e E l a s t ic it y o f Demand fo r U .S. Government N otes and Bonds A Comparison o f Y ield s on Futures C ontracts and Implied Forward Rates Government D ebt-Financing — I t s E ffe c ts in View o f Tax D iscou n tin g -4 7 - J u l. Aug. Apr. Jun. O ct. Mar. J u l. 1960 1960 1961 1961 1961 1963 1964 Jun. 1977 Sep. 1977 Dec. 1978 J u l. 1979 GREAT BRITAIN Toward A R ational Exchange P o lic y : B r itis h Experience Some R e fle c tio n s on the Apr. 1969 -4 8 - HOUSING R e sid en tia l C onstruction Does Slower Monetary Expansion D iscrim in ate A gainst Housing? Housing: A C y c lic a l Indu stry on the Upswing -4 9 - J u l. 1962 Jun. 1968 Aug. 1976 HUNT COMMISSION REPORT The Hunt Commission Report — An Economic View -5 0 - Jun. 1972 INDEXATION The Case For and A gainst Indexation: a t P e r sp ec tiv e An Attempt Oct. 1974 -5 1 - INFLATION Some In flu en ce s in the Behavior of P r ic e s Since the 1957-58 R ecession 1965: Monetary Growth, Real Product Growth, P rice In crea ses T otal Demand and I n f la t io n Money, I n te r e s t R a tes, P rices and Output P r ic e s in th e Current Expansion I n fla tio n a r y Forces P r e v a il I n fla tio n a r y P ressu res Continue 1968 — Year of I n f la t io n S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic y and I n f la t io n R estrain in g I n fla t io n Monetary A c tio n s, C red it Flows and I n f la t io n Real Growth and P rices Monetary P o lic y and I n f la t io n I n fla t io n Continues C o n tr o llin g I n f la t io n Progress in C o n tr o llin g I n fla t io n The E ffe c ts o f I n f la t io n (1960-68) 1969 — B a ttle A gainst I n fla t io n I n te r e s t Rates and P r ic e L evel Changes, 1952-69 Monetary A c tio n s, Total Savings and P rices Monetary R estra in t and I n fla tio n a r y Momentum T ran sition to Reduced I n fla t io n L e t 's Not R etreat in th e F ig h t A gainst I n f la t io n I n fla tio n and I t s Cure A n ti-I n fla tio n P rocess Continues S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic y and I n fla t io n Some Lessons to be Learned From the P resen t I n f la t io n Aggregate P rice Changes and P rice E xpectations The Road to A c c e le r a tin g I n fla t io n i s Paved w ith Good In ten tio n s Proposed S o lu tio n s to I n f la t io n — E ffe c tiv e and I n e f f e c t iv e High Employment Without I n fla t io n : On the Attainment of Admirable C oals Slowing in Money Growth: The Key to Success in Curbing I n f la t io n Monetary P o lic y and R e la tiv e P r ic es in an Incomes P o lic y Curbing P r ic e E xpectations: The Key to I n f la t io n Control The N ation al Plans to Curb Unemployment and I n f la t io n Spending, P r ic e s , and Employment in Early 1973 1973 — A Year of I n f la t io n Real Money B alances: A M islead in g In d ica to r o f Monetary A ctions -5 2 - Mar. D ec. J u l. Nov. Jan. Apr. O ct. D ec. Feb. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Nov. Dec. Dec. J an. Apr. May May J u l. Aug. O ct. O ct. Nov. 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1968 1968 1968 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1969 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 Jun. 1971 J u l. 1971 Sep. 1971 O ct. Nov. May Apr. May Dec. 1971 1971 1972 1973 1973 1973 Feb. 1974 INFLATION (CONTINUED) The Role o f Monetary P o lic y in D ealin g With I n fla t io n and High I n te r e s t Rates The Current I n fla t io n : The U n ites S ta te s Experience The Case For and A gain st Indexation : An Attempt at P e rsp ectiv e I n f la t io n , R ecession — What's a Policymaker to do? 1974 — A Year of I n f la t io n , Production Cutbacks and O il-Induced Payments D e f ic it s A Primer on I n fla t io n : I t s C onception, I t s C o sts, I t s Consequences Unusual Factors C ontrib utin g to Economic Turmoil I n fla t io n : I t s Cause and Cure Financing Government Through Monetary Expansion and I n f la t io n I n f la t io n , Unemployment, and Hayek Paying More Taxes and A ffording I t L ess Crain Exports and I n fla t io n Real Money Balances: A Good F o reca stin g D evise and A Good P o lic y Target? The O rigin and Impact o f I n f la t io n The Link Between Money and P rices — 1971-76 I n fla t io n and th e Economic Recovery The W elfare Cost of I n f la t io n Are You P rotected from I n fla tio n ? The E ffe c ts of Changes in I n fla tio n a r y E xpectations So What, I t ' 8 Only a F ive Percent I n f la t io n I n fla t io n and Taxes: D is in c e n tiv e s fo r C apital Formation P i t f a l l s to th e Current Expansion Coordinated In te r n a tio n a l Economic Expansion: Are Convoys or Locomotives th e Answer? I n f la t io n , Unemployment, and Money: Comparing the Evidence from Two Simple Models Does the Stage o f the B usiness Cycle A ffe c t the I n f la t io n Rate? The Economic Consequences o f Wage-Price G u id elin es I s I n f la t io n A ll Due to Money? I n fla t io n and Personal Savings: An Update -5 3 - Aug. 1974 Sep. 1974 O ct. 1974 Nov. 1974 Dec. 1974 Jan. 1975 Jan. 1975 Feb. 1975 Feb. May J u l. Sep. 1975 1975 1975 1975 Sep. Dec. Jun. Jun. Nov. Jan. Apr. May J an. J u l. 1975 1975 1976 1976 1976 1977 1977 1977 1978 1978 Jul . 1978 Sep. 1978 Sep. Dec. Dec. Aug. 1978 1978 1978 1979 INTEREST RATES I n te r e st Rates on Time D ep osits I n te r e s t Rates in P e r sp ec tiv e The Seasonal P attern of I n te r e s t Rates A Year o f I n te r e s t Rate S t a b ilit y Y ield s on Corporate Stocks Recent Developments in Government F oreign Exchange T ransactions Movements in Time and Savings D e p o sits: 1951-1962 Changing Seasonal P attern s: I n te r e s t R a tes, C red it and Money D iscount Rate R aised The U .S. Balance o f Payments S itu a tio n : 1963 Recent Trends in Time D ep o sits Economic Expansion With S ta b le I n te r e s t Rates I n te r e s t R ates, Budget P o lic y , and Monetary P o lic y In te r e s t R a te s, 1914-1965 Strong T otal Demand, R isin g I n te r e s t R a tes, and Continued A v a ila b ility of C redit T otal Demand, C red it Demand, and I n te r e s t Rates Aggregate Demand, I n te r e s t Rates and Monetary R e str a in t Banks and R isin g I n te r e s t R ates R isin g I n te r e s t Rates and A g ricu ltu re D ep osit I n te r e s t Rate R egulation and Com petition fo r Personal Funds Changing Stru ctu re o f I n te r e s t Rates Money, In te r e s t R a te s, P r ic e s , and Output I n te r e s t Rate C ontrols — P e r sp e c tiv e , Purpose and Problems C redit Flows and Recent I n te r e s t Rate Trends Recent I n te r e s t Rate Developments I n te r e s t Rates and P rice L evel Changes, 1952-69 C apital Markets and I n te r e s t Rates in 1970 The S ig n ific a n c e o f Recent I n te r e s t Rate Movements W ill C ap ital Reflows Induce Domestic I n te r e s t Rate Changes I n te r e s t Rates and Monetary Growth The Role o f Monetary P o lic y in D ealing With I n fla t io n and High I n te r e s t Rates Usury Laws: Harmful When E ffe c tiv e Preferred H abitat v s . E ffic ie n t Market: A T est of A lte r n a tiv e H ypothesis An E xplanation of Movements in Short-Term I n te r e s t Rates E ffe c ts o f I n te r e s t on Demand D e p o sits: Im p lica tio n s of Compensating Balances Treasury B i l l Futures Market and Market E xpectations of I n te r e s t Rates -5 4 - May Aug. Nov. Aug. J u l. 1960 1960 1960 1961 1962 Sep. Mar. Aug. Aug. Sep. J u l. Aug. Sep. Oct. 1962 1963 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1965 1965 Aug. Sep. O ct. Oct. Nov. 1966 1966 1966 1966 1966 Nov. Jun. Nov. Sep. J u l. O ct. Dec. Mar. Aug. J u l. J an. 1966 1967 1967 1968 1969 1969 1969 1971 1971 1972 1973 Aug. 1974 Aug. 1974 May 1976 J u l. 1976 Nov. 1977 Jun. 1977 INTEREST RATES (CONTINUED) A Comparison of Y ield s on Futures C ontracts and Im plied Forward Rates D isin term ed iation : An Old D isorder With a New Remedy B en efits o f Borrowing from th e Federal Reserve When the Discount Rate i s Below Market I n te r e s t Rates Do F lo a tin g C e ilin g s S olve th e Usury Rate Problem? Do R isin g U .S. I n te r e s t R ates Imply A Stronger D ollar? Government Debt F inancing — I t s E ffe c t in View o f Tax D iscou ntin g -5 5 - Dec. 1978 Jan. 1979 Mar. 1979 Apr. 1979 Jun. 1979 J u l. 1979 INTERNATIONAL In tern a tio n a l F in an cial Developments In te r n a tio n a l Comparisons Recent In te r n a tio n a l Developments The U nited S ta te s as World Banker R e fle c tio n s on the In te r n a tio n a l Monetary C r is is U .S. D ollar in In te r n a tio n a l Markets: Mid-1970 to Mid-1976 Economic A c t iv it y in Ten Major In d u str ia l C ountries: Late 1973 through Mid-1976 U .S. In tern a tio n a l Trade and F in a n cia l Developments in 1976 In te r n a tio n a l R eserves and th e Role o f S p ecia l Drawing R ights Comparing Per C apita Output In te r n a tio n a lly : Has the U nited S ta te s Been Overtaken? Budget D e f ic it s and Trade D e f ic it s : I s There a Link? R isin g Farm Exports and In te r n a tio n a l Trade Balances -5 6 - Aug. 1976 O ct. 1976 Dec. 1976 Jan. 1978 May 1978 Oct. 1978 J u l. 1979 INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS What i s a Balance of Payments? The U nited S ta te s Balance o f Payments: 1946-1960 The In te r n a tio n a l Payments System Current Problems Facing th e U nited S ta te s Economy Recent Developments in Government F oreign Exchange T ransactions U .S. Balance of Payments D e f ic it s in P e rsp ectiv e The U .S. Balance-of-Paym ents S itu a tio n : 1963 The Eurodollar Market Measurement of a N a tio n 's Balance o f Payments W ill C apital Reflows Induce Domestic I n te r e s t Rate Changes? Economic A c t iv it y in Ten Major I n d u str ia l C ountries: Late 1973 through M id-1976 U .S. In te r n a tio n a l Trade and F in a n cia l Developments in 1976 -5 7 - Jun. Mar. May Sep. 1960 1961 1962 1962 Sep. J u l. Sep. Dec. Mar. J u l. 1962 1963 1963 1963 1964 1972 Oct. 1976 Dec. 1976 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES Recent S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic ie s Abroad Money Supply in F iv e C oun tries, 1951-1964 F is c a l P o lic y , Monetary P o lic y , and In te r n a tio n a l D iseq u ilib riu m The Emergence o f Hard C urrencies in the Postwar Period The E ffe c t o f T otal Demand on Real Output Monetary P o lic y , B alance-of-Paym ents, and B usiness C ycles — The Foreign Experience Toward A R ational Exchange P o lic y : Some R e fle c tio n s on the B r itis h Experience Monetary and F is c a l In flu en ce s on Economic A c t iv it y — The Foreign Experience S e le c tin g a Monetary In d ic a to r — Evidence from the U nited S ta te s and Other Developed C ountries C o n tr o llin g Money in an Open Economy: The German Case C entral Banks and th e Money Supply German Banka as F in a n cia l Department S tores P roduction, P r ic e s , and Money in Four I n d u str ia l C ountries The Response o f the Mexican Economy to P o lic y A ctions Formulating a Model of th e Mexican Economy The Postwar Economic System in Germany: C reation, E volu tion , and R eappraisal Economic A c t iv it y in Ten Major In d u str ia l C ountries: Late 1973 through Mid-1976 U .S. In te r n a tio n a l Trade and F in a n cia l Developments in 1976 Comparing Per C apita Output I n te r n a tio n a lly : Has th e United S ta tes Been Overtaken? Coordinated In te r n a tio n a l Economic Expansion: Are Convoys or Locomotives the Answer? -5 8 - Aug. 1964 Nov. 1964 Sep. 1965 Mar. 1966 J u l. 1966 Nov. 1967 Apr. 1969 Feb. 1970 Sep. Apr. Aug. Nov. Sep. Jun. J u l. 1970 1971 1971 1971 1972 1973 1973 Oct. 1975 O ct. 1976 Dec. 1976 May 1978 J u l. 1978 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM The In te r n a tio n a l Payments System Recent Developments in Government F oreign Exchange T ransactions U .S. Balance o f Payments D e f ic it s in P e r sp ec tiv e The U .S. Balance-of-Paym ents S itu a tio n : 1963 In te r n a tio n a l Monetary Reform A Dialogue on S p ecia l Drawing R ights In te r n a tio n a l Monetary Reform and th e 'Crawling Peg' In te r n a tio n a l Monetary Reform and the 'C rawling Peg' — Comment — Reply D o lla r s , D e f i c i t s , and th e In te r n a tio n a l Monetary System Problems of the In te r n a tio n a l Monetary System and Proposals f o r Reform — 1944-70 An Appropriate In te r n a tio n a l Currency — Gold, D o lla r s , or SDR's? In te r n a tio n a l R eserves and the R ole o f S p ecia l Drawing R ights? O il Imports and th e F a ll o f th e D o lla r Money-Income R e la tio n sh ip s and the Exchange Rate Regime -5 9 - May 1962 Sep. J u l. Sep. Oct. J u l. Feb. 1962 1963 1963 1967 1968 1969 J u l. J u l. 1969 1971 May 1972 Aug. Jan. Aug. Aug. 1972 1978 1978 1978 INTERNATIONAL RESERVES What i s a Balance o f Payments? The U nited S ta te s Balance o f Payments: 1946-1960 The In te r n a tio n a l Payments System Recent Developments in Government F oreign Exchange Transactions U .S. Balance-of-Paym ents D e f ic it s in P e r sp e c tiv e The U .S. Balance-of-Paym ents S itu a tio n : 1963 Measurement of a N a tio n 's Balance o f Payments In te r n a tio n a l R eserves and the R ole o f S p ecia l Drawing R ights Does E urodollar Borrowing Improve th e D o lla r 's Exchange Value? -6 0 - Jun. Mar. May 1960 1961 1962 Sep. J u l. Sep. Mar. Jan. Aug. 1962 1963 1963 1964 1978 1979 INVENTORIES Changes Since the S te e l S trik e — Inventory F lu c tu a tio n s; F in a n cia l Developments In v en to ries Continue in Balance Inventory Investment in th e Recent R ecession and Recovery -6 1 - 1960 jun! 1964 Apr. 1977 N o v . INVESMZNT, DOMESTIC Taxation o f C apital Gains: P r in c ip le Versus P r a c tic e Energy P r ic es and C ap ital Formation: 1972-1977 -6 2 - O ct. 1978 May 1979 INVESTiSMr, FORE ICN Foreign Investm ent in the U nited S ta te s — A Danger to Our W elfare and Sovereignty? The "Danger" from Foreign Ownership o f U .S. Farmland -6 3 - O ct. 1973 Jan. 1979 LABOR Labor Market C la s s if ic a t io n in the E ighth D is t r ic t Labor Force and Employment — P r in cip a l D is t r ic t Labor Markets and U nited S ta te s Labor Force Changes Over th e Past Year Current U t iliz a t io n o f Labor An Explanation o f Movements in th e Labor Force P a r tic ip a tio n R ate, 1957-76 The P r o d u ctiv ity Problem -6 4 - Nov. Jan. Jun. Aug. Aug. 1962 1963 1963 1963 1970 Aug. 1978 Sep. 1979 LIQUIDITY Commercial Bank L iq u id ity L iq u id ity Developments in Three B usiness C ycles L iquid A sse ts in the Recovery Changes in S e le c te d L iquid A ss e ts : 1951-1961 Movements in Time and Savings D ep o sits: 1951-1962 -6 5 - Aug. Apr. Jun. Oct. Mar. 1960 1961 1961 1961 1963 M BER BANKS, EIGHTH DISTRICT EM D is t r ic t Banking A c tiv ity in the L ast H alf of 1959 D is t r ic t Member Banks Earnings in 1959 D is t r ic t Banking in Early 1960 Earnings of D is t r ic t Member Banks in th e F i r s t H alf of 1960 Bank D ebits in the E ighth D is t r ic t D is t r i c t Member Bank Earnings in 1960 D is t r ic t Banking in E arly 1961 Recent D i s t r i c t Banking Developments Earnings and Expenses of E ighth D is t r ic t Member Banks Earnings and Expenses o f Eigjhth D is t r ic t Member Banks Central M iss is sip p i V a lle y Banking A c t iv it y 1963 Earnings and Expenses of C entral M is s is s ip p i V a lley Member Banks Changes in Rates on Time D ep osits a t D i s t r i c t Banks Earnings and Expenses of Central M iss is sip p i V a lle y Banks During 1964 Member Bank Revenues and Expenses Member Bank Income and Expenses — 1967 Member Bank Income — 1968 Income, Expenses and O perating R atios o f E ighth D is t r ic t Member Banks — 1970 Income and Expenses o f E ighth D is t r ic t Member Banks — 1971 Income and Expenses of Eigjhth D is t r ic t Member Banks Income and Expenses o f E ighth D i s t r i c t Member Banks — 1973 Income and Expenses of Eigjhth D is t r ic t Member Banks — 1974 Income and Expenses o f E ighth D is t r i c t Member Banks — 1975 Income and Expenses of Eigjhth D is t r ic t Member Banks — 1976 -66- Jan. Mar. May Aug. Aug. Mar. Apr. Mar. Apr. Apr. Dec. 1960 1960 1960 1960 1960 1961 1961 1962 1962 1963 1963 Apr. 1964 Mar. 1963 Apr. May Apr. Apr. 1965 1966 1968 1969 Aug. J u l. Aug. J u l. Aug. Aug. Aug. 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 MEMER BANKS, FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Changes in Member Bank Reserve Requirements Some O bservations on Excess R eserves of Member Banks Member Bank R eserves In crease Changes i n Required R eserves Member Bank R eserves and the Money Supply Federal R eserve F lo a t Excess Reserve Bank Loans and Investm ents, 1951-1963 RPDs and Other R eserve O perating T argets Recent Changes in R eserve Requirements: An Example of C ontradictory R egulation U t iliz a t io n o f F ederal Reserve Bank S erv ices by Member Banks: Im p lication s fo r the Cost and B en efits o f Membership Bank R eserve Requirements and T heir Enforcement: A Comparison Across S ta te s Benchmark R evision s o f th e Money Stock and Ranges o f Money Stock Growth Does th e Federal R eserve In v e st Member Bank Reserves? B e n e fits of Borrowing from the Federal Reserve when the D iscount Rate i s Below Market I n te r e s t R ates -6 7 - Aug. Oct. O ct. Nov. Mar. Nov. Apr. O ct. Aug. 1960 1960 1960 1960 1962 1962 1963 1963 1972 Mar. 1976 Aug. 1977 Mar. 1978 Jun. 1978 J u l. 1978 Mar. 1979 MEXICO The Response of the Mexican Economy to P o lic y A ctions Formulating a Model o f th e Mexican Economy -68- Jun. 1973 J u l. 1973 MONETARY BASE The Monetary Base — E xplanation and A n a ly tic a l Use R evision o f th e Monetary Base The R e la tio n sh ip Between Monetary Base and Money: How Close? S e le c tio n of a Monetary Aggregate fo r Economic S t a b iliz a t io n D erivation o f the Monetary Base R evision o f th e Monetary Base Does the S t . Louis Equation Now B e lie v e in F is c a l P o licy ? Does th e Federal R eserve In v e st Member Bank Reserves? A lte r n a tiv e Measures of the Monetary Base -6 9 - Aug. Apr. O ct. Oct. Nov. J u l. Feb. J u l. Jun. 1968 1975 1975 1975 1976 1977 1978 1978 1979 MONETARY POLICY What i s a Balance of Payments? The D iscount Mechanism and Monetary P o lic y A Year of I n te r e s t Rate S t a b ili t y Continued Monetary and Economic Expansion Economic A c t iv it y Continues to Advance in E arly 1965 — Monetary Expansion Slows and F is c a l Developments Are L i t t l e Changed Federal Reserve Open Market T ransactions and th e Money Supply Implementaion of Federal Reserve Open Market P o lic y i n 1964 Recent Monetary and F is c a l Developments More S tim u la tiv e I n te r e s t R a tes, Budget P o lic y , and Monetary P o lic y F is c a l P o lic y , Monetary P o lic y and In te r n a tio n a l D iseq uilib riu m F is c a l Ease and Monetary Growth Federal Reserve Open Market O perations in 1965: O b je c tiv e s, A ction s and Accomplishments Aggregate Demand, I n te r e s t R a tes, and Monetary R e str a in t M onitoring Monetary P o lic y — by George W. M itc h e ll 1966 — A Year of C hallenge fo r Monetary Management Recent Monetary A ction s 1967 — A Year of C on strain ts on Monetary Management Does Slower Monetary Expansion D iscrim in a te A gain st Housing? The R ole o f Money and Monetary P o lic y — A Guest A r t ic le by Dr. Karl Brunner F is c a l R e s tr a in t, Total Demand and Monetary P o lic y T otal Demand, F is c a l R e str a in t, and Reduced Monetary Expansion An Approach to Monetary and F is c a l Management Monetary and F is c a l A ction s: A Test of T heir R e la tiv e Importance in Economic S t a b iliz a t io n Monetary A c tio n s, C red it Flows and I n f la t io n Monetary and F is c a l A ctio n s: A T est o f T heir R e la tiv e Importance in Economic S t a b iliz a tio n — Comment — Reply Federal Open Market Committee D ecisio n s in 1968 — A Year of Watchful W aiting C o n tr o llin g Money R estra in in g the Growth of T otal Spending Monetary P o lic y and I n f la t io n Monetary and F is c a l In flu en ce s on Economic A c t iv it y — The H is to r ic a l Evidence S e le c t iv e C red it — No S u b s titu te fo r Monetary R e str a in t -7 0 - Jun. Sep. Aug. Jan. 1960 1960 1961 1965 Apr. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 Sep. 1965 O ct. 1965 Jun. O ct. Nov. Apr. May May Jun. 1966 1966 1966 1967 1968 1968 1968 J u l. 1968 Aug. 1968 Nov. 1968 Nov. 1968 Nov. Apr. 1968 1969 Apr. 1969 May May May Jun. 1969 1969 1969 1969 Nov. Dec. 1969 1969 MONETARY POLICY (CONTINUED) Monetary A c tio n s, Total Spending and P rices The New, New Economics and Monetary P o lic y Monetary R e str a in t and I n fla tio n a r y Momenttm Federal Open Market Committee D ecisio n s in 1969 — Year of Monetary R estra in t Economic Slowdown and S t a b iliz a t io n P o licy ? S e le c tin g a Monetary In d ic a to r — Evidence From the U nited S ta te s and Other Developed C ountries S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic y and I n f la t io n O bservations on S t a b iliz a t io n Management Current S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic y The Implementation Problem of Monetary P o lic y The Year 1970 — A 'Modest' B eginning fo r Monetary Aggregates Money Stock Control and I t s Im p lica tio n s fo r Monetary P o lic y Monetary P o lic y and R e la tiv e P r ic e s in an Incomes P o lic y Monetary Expansion and Federal Open Market Committee O perating Strategy in 1971 Has Monetarism F ailed ? — The Record Examined Recent Monetary Growth The Economy and Monetary A ctions a t Midyear: Review and P rospects F isc a l and Monetary P o lic y : O pportunities and Problems FO C P o lic y A ction s in 1972 M The U sefu ln ess o f A pplied Econometrics to the Policymaker Problems of In te r p r e tin g Recent Monetary Developments Economic Iss u e s in 1974 L etter on Monetary P o lic y The Monetary Economics o f Gold Real Money B alances: A M islead ing In d ic a to r of Monetary A ction s L etter on Monetary P o lic y The Federal Open Market Committee in 1973 How and Why F is c a l A ctions Matter to a M onetarist A Monetary P r e sc r ip tio n fo r an A ilin g Economy The Role o f Monetary P o lic y in D ealin g With I n f la t io n and High I n te r e s t R ates Channels of Monetary In flu en ce: A Survey Monetary E ffe c ts of th e Treasury S a le o f Gold Financing Governments Through Monetary Expansion and I n f la t io n The FO C in 1974: Monetary P o lic y During Economic U ncertainty M P u b lic P o lic y fo r a Free Economy The M onetary-Fiscal Mix Through Mid-1976 Observed Income V e lo c ity of Money: A M isunderstood Issu e in Monetary P o lic y -7 1 - Jan. 1970 Jan. 1970 Apr. 1970 Jun. 1970 Sep. 1970 Sep. O ct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May O ct. Nov. 1970 1970 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 Mar. 1972 Mar. 1972 Apr. 1972 Sep. Jan. Mar. May J u l. O ct. Nov. Jan. 1972 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1973 1974 Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. 1974 1974 1974 1974 1974 Aug. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. May Aug. 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1975 1975 Aug. 1975 MONETARY POLICY (CONTINUED) Real Money Balances: A Good F o r e ca stin g D ev ise and A Good P o lic y Target Bank F a ilu r e s and P ublic P o lic y The FO C in 1975: Announcing Monetary T argets M The Link Between Money and P rices — 1971-76 Some C onsiderations in th e Use o f Monetary A ggregates fo r th e Implementation o f Monetary P o lic y A Tax-Bases Income P o lic y (T IP): What's I t A ll About? Does the S t . Louis Equation Nov B e lie v e in F is c a l P o licy ? P i t f a l l s to th e Current Expansion I n f la t io n , Unemployment, and Money: Comparing the Evidence from Two Simple Models Commentary on Monetary Economics: An In terv iew w ith Karl Brunner Automatic T ransfers and the Money Supply Process Formulating Economic P o lic y fo r 1979 and Beyond: Old Problems and New C on strain ts Monetary T argets — T heir C ontribution to P o lic y Formation E xplain ing the Economic Slowdown of 1979: A Supply and Demand Approach Money Stock Control Under A lte r n a tiv e D e fin itio n s of Money -7 2 - Sep. 1975 Nov. 1975 Mar. 1976 Jun. 1976 Sep. 1977 Feb. 1978 Feb. 1978 J u l. 1978 Sep. 1978 Nov. 1978 Feb. 1979 Apr. 1979 May 1979 O ct. 1979 Nov. 1979 MONETARY THEORY Economic Theory and F o r e ca stin g Money in a Modern Q uantity Theory Framework An Explanation of Federal Reserve A ction s (1933-68) The In flu en ce o f Economic A c tiv ity on th e Money Stock — Comments on the ' S t . Louis P o s itio n ' — Reply — A d d ition al Em pirical Evidence on the R everse-C ausation Argument Some Issu e s in Monetary Economics A M onetarist Model fo r Economic S t a b iliz a t io n The "Crowding Out" of P r iv a te Expenditures by F is c a l P o lic y A ctions E x p ecta tio n s, Money, and the Stock Market A M onetarist View o f Demand Management: The U nited S ta te s Experience Money Stock Control and I t s Im p lica tio n s fo r Monetary P o lic y A C r itic a l Look at M onetarist Economics Comments on a M onetarist Approach to Demand Management A Review of Em pirical S tu d ies of the Money Supply Mechanism Measurement o f th e Domestic Money Supply Money Stock Control The S ta te of th e M onetarist Debate The S ta te o f the M onetarist Debate: Commentary by Lawrence R. K lein The S ta te of the M onetarist Debate: Commentary by Karl Brunner A Comparative S t a t ic A n aly sis of Some M onetarist P ro p o sitio n s The Monetary Economics o f Gold Monetary and F is c a l A ctions in Macroeconomics Models Channels of Monetary In flu en ce : A Survey The S t . Louis Equation and Monthly Data A Monetary Model o f Nominal Income D eterm ination Crowding Out and I t s C r itic s An Explanation o f Movements in Short-Term I n te r e s t Rates Commentary on Monetary Economics: An In terv iew w ith Karl Brunner Evidence on the Temporal S t a b i lit y of the Demand fo r Money R ela tio n sh ip in th e U nited S ta te s -7 3 - Mar. 1967 Dec. 1967 J u l. 1969 Aug. 1969 Jan. 1970 Apr. 1970 O ct. 1970 Jan. 1971 Sep. O ct. Jan. Jan. J u l. May O ct. Sep. 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1973 Sep. 1973 Sep. D ec. Jan. Jan. Nov. Jan. Jun. Dec. J u l. 1973 1973 1974 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1976 Nov. 1978 Dec. 1979 M 3NEY DEM AND ** Changes in the V e lo c ity of Money, 1951-1962 Some Issu e s i n Monetary Economics Monetary and F is c a l In flu en ce s on Economic A c t iv it y — The Foreign Experience S e le c tin g A Monetary In d ic a to r — Evidence From the U nited S ta te s and Other Developed C ountries The "Crowding Out" of P r iv a te Expenditures by F is c a l P o lic y A ction s A M onetarist View of Demand Management: The U nited S ta te s Experience A Review of Em pirical S tu d ies of the Money Supply Mechanism Problems o f I n te r p r e tin g Recent Monetary Developments S ta te of the M onetarist Debate Real Money B alances: A M islead in g In d ica to r o f Monetary A ctions Channels o f Monetary In flu en ce : A Survey F inancing Government Through Monetary Expansion and I n f la t io n A Monetary View o f th e Balance o f Payments A Monetary Model of Nominal Income D eterm ination Observed Income V e lo c ity of Money: A M isunderstood Issu e in Monetary P o lic y Real Money Balances: A Good F o reca stin g D evice and a Good P o lic y Target? S e le c tio n of a Monetary A ggregate fo r Economic S t a b iliz a t io n Crowding Out and I t s C r itic s Monetary T argets — T heir C ontrib ution to P o lic y Formation E xp lain in g the Economic Slowdown of 1979: A Supply and Demand Approach Money Stock Control Under A lte r n a tiv e D e fin ia tio n o f Money Evidence on th e Temporal S t a b ilit y of th e Demand fo r Money R ela tio n sh ip i n the United S ta te s ** See 'V d .o c ity o f Money" -7 4 - Jun. 1962 Jan. 1970 Feb. 1970 Sep. 1970 O ct. 1970 Sep. J u l. J u l. Sep. 1971 1972 1973 1973 Feb. Nov. Feb. Apr. Jun. 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 Aug. 1975 Sep. O ct. D ec. May 1975 1975 1975 1979 O ct. 1979 Nov. 1979 D ec. 1979 M ONEY M ARKET The Federal Fuads Market Treasury B i l l s The D iscount Mechanism and Monetary P o lic y B usiness A c t iv it y , th e Money Market, and Monetary Developments The 1975-76 Federal D e f ic it s and the C red it Market Treasury B i l l Futures Market and Market E xpectations of I n te r e st Rates Debt-Management P o lic y and th e Own P r ic e E l a s t ic it y o f Demand fo r U .S. Government N otes and Bonds A Comparison o f Y ie ld s On Futures C ontracts and Implied Forward Rates B en efits o f Borrowing from th e Federal R eserve When the Discount Rate i s Below Market I n te r e s t Rates Repurchase Agreements Does Eurodollar Borrowing Improve the D o lla r 's Exchange Value? -7 5 - Apr. J u l. Sep. Sep. Jan. 1960 1960 1960 1963 1977 Jun. 1977 Sep. 1977 Dec. 1978 Mar. 1979 Sep. 1979 Aug. 1979 MONEY SUPPLY Growth in the Money Supply A New Money Supply S e r ie s L iq u id ity Developments in Three B usiness C ycles L iquid Aaaeta in th e Recovery Changes in S e le c te d L iquid A sse ts: 1951-1961 F in an cial and Monetary Development: In crease o f th e Money Supply Member Rank Reserves and th e Money Supply Monetary Developments Changes in th e V e lo c ity of Money, 1951-1962 Monetary Developments Recent Monetary Developments R evised Money Supply S e r ies Changing Seasonal P attern s: I n te r e s t R a tes, C redit and Money Bank Loans and Investm ents, 1951-1963 Uses of the Word 'Money' R evision of th e Money Supply S e r ie s Money Supply and Time D e p o sits, 1914-1964 Growth in Money Slows Currency and Demand D ep osits Money Supply In crea ses R apidly 1965: Monetary Growth, Real Product Growth, P rice In crea ses Rapid Monetary Growth Continues Monetary Expansion Continues T otal Demand, C red it Flow s, and Money Three Approaches to Money Stock D eterm ination Money in a Modern Q uantity Theory Framework Measures of Current Monetary Developments The R ole o f Money and Monetary P o lic y — A Guest A r tic le by Dr. Karl Brunner R e la tio n s Among Monetary Aggregates C o n tro llin g Money The In flu en ce o f Economic A c tiv ity on th e Money Stock — Comments on the ' S t . Louis P o s itio n ' — Reply — A d d ition al Em pirical Evidence on the R everse-C ausation Argument Adjustment of Demand D ep o sit S e r ie s R evision o f th e Money Supply S e r ie s Elements of Money Stock D eterm ination Money Supply and Time D e p o sits, 1914-69 N e u tr a liz a tio n o f the Money Stock -7 6 - Feb. Nov. Apr. Jun. Oct. 1960 1960 1961 1961 1961 Dec. Mar. Jun. Jun. J u l. Aug. O ct. 1961 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 1962 Aug. O ct. Oct. J u l. Sep. Mar. Mar. Nov. D ec. J an. May Nov. O ct. Dec. Jun. 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1965 1965 1965 1965 1966 1966 1966 1967 1967 1968 J u l . 1968 Mar. 1969 May 1969 Aug. Sep. Oct. O ct. Mar. May 1969 1969 1969 1969 1970 1970 MONEY SUPPLY (CONTINUED) N e u tr a liz a tio n of the Money Stock — Comment Monetary and F in an cial Development The R evised Money Stock: Explanation and I llu s t r a t io n s E xp ectation s, Money and th e Stock Market The Year 1970: A 'Modest" Beginning fo r Monetary A ggregates How F ast i s Money Crowing? C entral Banka and the Money Supply A M onetarist View of Demand Management: The U nited S ta te s Experience Slowing in Money Growth: The Key to Success in Curbing I n fla tio n Money Stock Control and I t s Im p lica tio n s fo r Monetary P o lic y Government D ebt, Money, and Economic A c tiv ity Recent Monetary Growth Measurement of the Domestic Money Supply A Review o f E m pirical S tu d ies of th e Money Supply Mechanism Trends and F lu c tu a tio n s in Monetary Growth Money Stock Control In te r e s t Rates and Monetary Growth Real Money B alances: A M islead ing In d ica to r o f Monetary A ctions Explanation o f th e Growth o f the Money Stock: 1974-Early 1975 Real Money B alances: A Good F o reca stin g D evise and A Good P o lic y Target? The R ela tio n sh ip Between Monetary Base and Money: How Close? S e le c tio n of a Monetary Aggregate fo r Economic S t a b iliz a t io n The Link Between Money and P rices — 1971-76 Some C onsiderations in th e Use o f Monetary Aggregates fo r the Implementation of Monetary P o licy ? Do F oreigners Control th e U .S . Money Supply Does the S t . Louis Equation Now B e lie v e in F is c a l P o licy ? Benchmark R evision s o f th e Money Stock and Ranges of Money Stock Growth Money-Income R ela tio n sh ip s and th e Exchange Rate Regime I n f la t io n , Unemployment, and Money: Comparing the Evidence from Two Simple Models Does the Stage o f the B usiness C ycle A ffe c t the I n fla t io n Rate? la I n fla t io n A ll Due to Money? Are th e P relim inary Week-to-Week F lu ctu a tio n s in Ml Biased? Automatic T ransfers and the Money Supply Process Monetary Targets — Their C ontribution to P o lic y Formation TTL Note Accounts and the Money Supply Process Money Stock Control Under A lte r n a tiv e D e fin itio n s o f Money -7 7 - May Nov. Jan. Jan. May Jun. Aug. 1970 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 Sep. 1971 O ct. O ct. Jan. Apr. May J u l. Sep. O ct. Jan. 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1972 1973 Feb. 1974 Sep. 1975 Sep. O ct. Oct. Jun. 1975 1975 1975 1976 Sep. 1977 Dec. 1977 Feb. 1978 Jun. 1978 Aug. 1978 Sep. 1978 Sep. Dec. Dec. Feb. May O ct. Nov. 1978 1978 1978 1979 1979 1979 1979 M ORTGAGE FUTURES A Mortgage Futures Market: *"<* C o sts I t s Development, U ses, B e n e fits , Apr. 1976 -7 8 - NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTING N ational Income Accounting and Economic W elfare: The Concepts o f GNP and M W E Energy R eserves and P o te n tia l GNP E stim ates o f th e High-Employment Budget and Changes in P o te n tia l Output Comparing Per C apital Output In te r n a tio n a lly : Has th e United S ta te s Been Overtaken? -7 9 - Apr. 1974 Jun. 1977 Aug. 1977 May 1978 OPERATIONS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS See "Annual Reports o f the Federal Reserve Bank of S t . Louis" -8 0 - PHILLIPS' CURVE The R e la tio n Between P r ic es and Employment: Two Views Does th e Stage of the B usiness C ycle A ffe c t th e I n fla t io n R*te? -8 1 - Mar. 1969 Sep. 1978 POPULATION Employment and Population Trends in P ersp ectiv e P op u lation , The Labor Force, and P o te n tia l Output: Im p lication s for the S t . Louis Model E ighth D is t r ic t P op ulation Centers -8 2 - Nov. 1965 Feb. 1971 jun 1972 PRESHXMTS ' SPEECHES Banks and R isin g I n te r e s t Rates (F ra n cis) Changing Sources o f Farm C redit (F ra n cis) An Approach to Monetary and F is c a l Management (F ra n cis) Monetary P o lic y and I n fla t io n (F ra n cis) C o n tr o llin g I n fla t io n (F ran cis) S e le c t iv e C red it—No S u b stitu te fo r Monetary R estra in t (F ra n cis) The New, New Economics and Monetary P o lic y (F ra n cis) L e t's Not R etreat in the F ig * t A gainst I n fla t io n (F ra n cis) Some Lessons to be Learned from the P resen t I n f la t io n ( Franci s ) The I n te r n a tio n a l Payments System and Farm Exports (F ra n cis) S o cia l P r io r it ie s and the Market A llo c a tio n o f C redit (F ra n cis) The Road to A c c e le r a tin g I n f la t io n i s Paved w ith Good In ten tio n s (F ra n cis) Proposed S o lu tio n s to I n f la t io n — E ffe c tiv e and I n e f f e c t iv e ( Franci s ) The F le x ib le Exchange Rate: Gain or Loss to th e U nited S ta te s (F r a n c is) Has Monetarism F ailed ? — The Record Examined (F ra n cis) The Economic O utlook (F ra n cis) The U sefu ln ess o f A pplied Econometrics to the Policymaker (F r a n c is) The Problem o f Re-Entry to a High-Employment Economy (F ra n cis) ProbletM o f In te r p r e tin g R ecent Monetary Developments ( Franci s ) Economic I ssu e s in 1974 (F r a n c is) How and Why F is c a l A ction s Matter to a M onetarist (F ra n cis) Monetary P r e sc r ip tio n fo r an A ilin g Economy (F ra n cis) R ole o f Monetary P o lic y i n D ea lin g With I n fla t io n and High I n t e r e s t Rates (F ra n cis) Economic Forces F acin g th e Bank H olding Company Movement (F ra n cis) I n f la t io n , R ecession — What's a Policymaker to Do? (F r a n c is) Unusual F actors C ontrib utin g to Economic Tunmoil (F ra n cis) P u b lic P o licy fo r a Free Economy (F ra n cis) O rigin and Impact o f I n fla t io n (F ra n cis) Monetary T argets — T heir C ontrib ution s to P o lic y Formation (Roos) -8 3 - O ct. 1966 Feb. 1968 Nov. 1968 Jun. 1969 Sep. 1969 D ec. 1969 Jan. 1970 May 1970 O ct. 1970 Nov. 1970 May 1971 Jun. 1971 J u l. 1971 Nov. 1971 Mar. 1972 Nov. 1972 May 1973 Jun. 1973 J u l. O ct. May Jun. 1973 1973 1974 1974 Aug. 1974 Sep. Nov. Jan. May Dec. 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 May 1979 PRICE EXPECTATIONS Curbing P rice E xpectations: The Key to I n f la t io n C ontrol The E ffe c ts of Changes in In fla tio n a r y E xpectations -8 4 - May 1972 Apr. 1977 PBKZS Sane In flu en ce s in the Behavior of P r ic e s Since the 1957-58 R ecession Farm Land Values Stock P r ic e s i n P e r sp ec tiv e Price Movements in P ersp ectiv e Hog and Beef C a ttle P r ic e s Farm Land P rices Advance L ivestock P r ic e s Farm Land P rices The R elation Between P r ic e s and Employment: Two Views Meat P r ic es Aggregate P r ic e Changes and P r ic e E xpectations Meat P r ic es A Primer on th e Consumer P r ic e Index Food: Outlook Favorable fo r Consumers R isin g Farmland P r ic e s and F a llin g Farm Earnings: Is A gricu ltu re in Trouble? The Economic Consequences o f W age-Price G u id elin es Energr P rices as C apital Formation: 1972-1977 -6 5 - Mar. J u l. O ct. J u l. May O ct. Aug. O ct. Mar. Aug. Nov. May J u l. Apr. 1960 1960 1960 1961 1963 1963 1964 1965 1969 1969 1970 1973 1974 1977 May 1978 Dec. 1978 May 1979 PRODUCTIVITY Current U t iliz a t io n of Labor P op ulation, The Labor F orce, and P o te n tia l Output: Im p lication s for the S t . Louis Model R e la tiv e Movements in Wages and P r o f it s The Economic Consequences of Wage-Price G u id elin es Energy P r ic es as C ap ital Formation: 1972-1977 The P ro d u ctiv ity Problem PROFITS Bank P r o fits R ise Sharply R e la tiv e Movements in Wages and P r o fit s The P r o d u ctiv ity Problem REAL MONEY BALANCES Real Money Balances: A M isleading In d ica to r o f Monetary A ctions Real Money Balances: A Good F o reca stin g D evise and a Good P o lic y Target? The Link Between Money and P rices — 1971-76 The W elfare Costs o f I n f la t io n -88- Feb. 1974 Sep. 1975 Jun. 1976 Nov. 1976 RECESSION Some In flu en ce s in the Behavior of P r ic es Since the 1957-1958 R ecession Farm P r ic es and Income During the Recent B usiness D eclin e Economic P lateau or Downturn? Real Economic Expansion Pauses Extent o f th e Slowdown Downturn Remains Mild Economic Slowdown and S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic y The 1974 N ational Economic Plan: R iding Out the Storm Economic Slowdown: Demand or Supply Induced I n f la t io n , R ecession — What's a Policymaker to Do? Another R ecessio n , But D iffe r e n t Unusual F actors C ontributing to Economic Turmoil Two Stages to th e Current R ecession A Guide to C ap ital Outlays in the Current Recovery Inventory Investm ent in th e Recent R ecession and Recovery E xplain ing the Economic Slowdown of 1979: A Supply and Demand Approach -8 9 - Mar. May Apr. Feb. Mar. Jun. Sep. Mar. May Nov. Dec. Jan. Jun. Feb. Apr. 1960 1961 1967 1970 1970 1970 1970 1974 1974 1974 1974 1975 1975 1977 1977 O ct. 1979 RECOVERY Recovery Forces in the Economy Liquid A sse ts in th e Recovery The Tempo of Expansion F in a n cia l H ig h lig h ts of th e Recovery The Economic Recovery of 1961 A Year o f Recovery The B usiness Expansion Signs o f Renewed Economic Advance Output Continues to Expand January to J u ly — A Resumption o f B usiness Expansion 1963 — A Year of Moderate Expansion The Economy Continues Strong Economic Expansion w ith S ta b le I n te r e s t Rates N ation al Economy Advances 1964: Fourth Year of Economic Expansion Economic Expansion Contines P r o sp e r ity , P ressu res, and P rices Economic A c tiv ity A c ce le ra te s Economic A c t iv it y Expanding More R apidly P r ic e s in th e Current Expansion Saving Flows in the Current Expansion The Economy — A Moderate Recovery 1971 — Year of Recovery and C ontrols The Economy in 1972 Recovery A c ce le ra te s 1972 — A Year o f Rapid Economic Expansion Business Recovery Continues The 1973 N a tion al Economic Plan: Slowing th e Boom The Problem o f Re-Entry to a High-Employment Economy I n fla t io n and th e Economic Recovery Bank Financing of the Recovery A Guide to C apital O utlays in th e Current Recovery Inventory Investm ent in the Recent R ecession and Recovery P i t f a l l s to th e Current Expansion Movements in the Foreign Exchange Value o f th e D o lla r During th e Current U .S . Expansion A P ersp ective on the Economy: Three Years of Expansion -9 0 - Feb. Jun. Aug. Aug. Jan. Mar. Apr. May J u l. Aug. J an. J u l. Aug. Sep. Dec. Jun. Apr. Sep. O ct. Jan. Jan. May Dec. Feb. Jun. Dec. Feb. Mar. Jun. Jun. J u l. Feb. Apr. J u l. 1961 1961 1961 1961 1962 1962 1962 1963 1963 1963 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1965 1966 1967 1967 1968 1969 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1973 1973 1973 1976 1976 1977 1977 1978 Nov. 1978 May 1978 REGULATION Q I n te r e st Rates on Time D ep o sits D eposit I n te r e s t Rate R egulation and Competition fo r Personal Funds 1966 — A Year of C hallenge fo r Monetary Management I n te r e s t Rate C ontrols — P e r sp e c tiv e , Purpose and Problems Monetary A c tio n s, C redit Flows and I n f la t io n A H is to r ic a l A n alysis of the C red it Crunch o f 1966 S e le c t iv e C redit — No S u b stitu te fo r Monetary R estra in t The A d m inistrative of R egulation Q Some Lessons to be Learned from the P resen t I n f la t io n Proposed S o lu tio n s to I n f la t io n — E ffe c tiv e and I n e f f e c t iv e The Hunt Commission Report — An Economic View -9 1 - May 1960 Nov. Apr. Sep. Apr. Sep. Dec. Feb. Oct. J u l. Jun. 1966 1967 1968 1969 1969 1969 1970 1970 1971 1972 RESERVE REQUIREMENTS Changes in Member Bank Reserve Requirements Changes in Required R eserves A Change in Reserve Requirements Bank Loans and Investm ents, 1951-1963 Further Expansion in Economic A c t iv it y I n fla tio n a r y P ressures Continue Money Stock C ontrol and I t s Im p lica tio n s fo r Monetary P o licy R evision o f th e Monetary Base Recent Changes in R eserve Requirements: An Example of C ontradictory R egulation Bank Reserve Requirements and T heir Enforcement: A Comparison Across S ta te s E ffe c tiv e n e ss of S ta te Reserve Requirements A lte r n a tiv e Measures o f th e Monetary Base Does Eurodollar Borrowing Improve the D o lla r 's Exchange Value? -9 2 - Aug. Nov. Nov. O ct. May O ct. O ct. Apr. 1960 1960 1962 1963 1964 1968 1971 1975 Mar. 1976 Mar. Sep. Jun. Aug. 1978 1978 1979 1979 RESERVES TO SUPPORT PRIVATE DEPOSITS (RPDs) RPDs and Other Reserve O perating Targets -9 3 - Aug. 1972 SAINT LOUIS MODEL A M onetarist Model for Economic S t a b iliz a tio n P op u lation , th e Labor F orce, and P o te n tia l Output: Im p lication s for the S t . Louis Model P r o je c tin g With th e S t . Louis Model: A Progress Report Monetary and F is c a l A ctions in Macroeconomic Models The S t . L ouis Equation and Monthly Data A Monetary Model of Nominal Income D eterm ination Does th e S t . L ouis Equation Nov B eliev e in F is c a l P o licy ? Formulating Economic P o lic y fo r 1979 and Beyond: Old Problems and New C on strain ts -9 4 - Apr. 1970 Feb. Feb. Jan. Jan. Jun. Feb. 1971 1972 1974 1975 1975 1978 Apr. 1979 SAINT LOUIS (STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA) Employment in the S t . Louis M etropolitan Area, 1950-1962 Economic In d ica to rs — S t. Louis and L o u is v ille Banking Markets for B usiness Firms in the S t . Louis Area Employment Growth in S t . Louis SAVINGS Movements in Time and Savings D ep o sits: 1951-1962 Saving, Investm ent, and Economic Outlook Consumer Saving R ises Saving Flow in th e Current Expansion D isin term ed iation : An Old D isorder With a New Remedy I n fla t io n and Personal Saving: An Update -9 6 - Mar. Aug. Mar. Jan. Jan. Aug. 1963 1967 1968 1969 1979 1979 SEASONAL PATTERNS Seasonal P attern s of B usiness A c tiv ity Changing Seasonal P attern s: I n te r e s t R a tes, C red it, and Money -9 7 - Aug, 1962 Aug. 1963 STABILIZATION POLICY, DOMESTIC The Federal Budget and Economic S t a b iliz a tio n Money, I n te r e s t R ates, P r ic e s , and Output The Federal Budget and S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic y in 1968 Monetary and F is c a l A ction s: A T est o f T heir R e la tiv e Importance in Economic S t a b iliz a tio n S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic y and I n f la t io n Monetary and F is c a l A ction s: A Test of T heir R e la tiv e Importance in Economic S t a b iliz a tio n — Comment — Reply R estrain in g th e Growth in T o ta l Spending S t a b iliz a tio n A ction s in 1969 — How Much R estrain t? Economic Slowdown andf S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic y S ta b iliz a tio n P o lic y and I n fla t io n O bservations on S t a b iliz a t io n Management Current S t a b iliz a t io n P o lic y S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic ie s and Employment 1971 — Year of Recovery and C ontrols A Look At Ten Months o f Price-Wage Control A Tax-Based Incomes P o lic y (TIP): What's I t A ll About? P i t f a l l s to th e Current Expansion I n f la t io n , Unemployment, and Money: Company the Evidence from Two Simple Models Does the Stage of the B usiness Cycle A ffe c t the I n fla t io n Rate? Economic Growth and Unemployment: A R eappraisal o f the C onventional View The Economic Consequences o f Wage-Price G u id elin es Formulating Economic P o lic y fo r 1979 and Beyond: Old Problems and New C on strain ts -9 8 - Feb. 1967 Nov. 1967 Mar. 1968 Nov. 1968 Feb. 1969 Apr. May Sep. Sep. O ct. Dec. Jan. Feb. Dec. Jun. Feb. J u l. 1969 1969 1969 1970 1970 1970 1971 1971 1971 1972 1978 1978 Sep. 1978 Sep. 1978 O ct. Dec. 1978 1978 Apr. 1979 STABILIZATION POLICY, INTERNATIONAL Recent S t a b iliz a tio n P o lic ie s Abroad Monetary and F is c a l In flu en ces on Economic A c tiv ity — The Foreign Experience Coordinated In te r n a tio n a l Economic Expansion: Are Convoys or Locomatives the Answer? -9 9 - Aug. 1964 Feb. 1970 J u l. 1978 STOCK MARKET Reduction of Margin Requirements on Stocks Stock P r ic e s in P e r sp ec tiv e The Stock Market in Recent Months Y ields on Corporate Stocks D eclin e in Stock Y ie ld s E xp ectation s, Money, and th e Stock Market Are the Prelim inary Week-to-Week F lu c tu a tio n s in Ml Biased? -1 0 0 - Aug. O ct. Apr. J u l. Mar. Jan. Dec. 1960 1960 1961 1962 1964 1971 1978 TAXES The U .S. Balance-of-Paym ents S itu ta tio n : 1963 The Outlook fo r Changes in Federal Taxation A Value Added Tax and Factors A ffe c tin g I t s Economic Impact Paying More Taxes and A ffording I t Less The Tax P enalty on Married Workers I n fla t io n and Taxes: D is in c e n tiv e s fo r C apital Formation Taxation o f C apital Gains: P r in c ip le Versus P r a c tic e Government Debt Financing — I t s E ffe c ts in View o f Tax D iscounting A Tax-Baaed Incomes P o lic y (TIP): What's I t A ll About? -1 0 1 - Sep. Dec. Sep. J u l. Dec. Jan. O ct. 1963 1972 1973 1975 1977 1978 1978 J u l . 1979 Feb. 1978 TIME DEPOSITS In te r e st R ates on Time D ep osits Recent Growth on Time D ep osits Movements in Time and Savings D ep o sits: 1951-1962 Changes in Rates on Time D ep o sits a t D is t r ic t Banks Recent Trends in Time D ep o sits Money Supply and Time D e p o sits, 1914-1964 Growth in Time D ep o sits Slows Money Supply and Time D e p o sits, 1914-1969 D isin term ed iation : An Old D isorder With a New Remedy Automatic T ransfers and th e Money Supply Process -1 0 2 - May Apr. Mar. Mar. J u l. Sep. J u l. Mar. Jan. Peb. 1960 1962 1963 1963 1964 1964 1968 1970 1979 1979 TRADE U.S. Balance o f Payments D e f ic it s in P ersp ectiv e Farm Commodity Exports and In te r n a tio n a l Trade P o lic ie s The In te r n a tio n a l Payments System and Farm Exports The R ussian Wheat Deal — H indsight v s . F o resig h t Recent and P rosp ective Development in In te r n a tio n a l Trade and Finance The U .S. Balance-of-Paym ents During 1974 In te r n a tio n a l Trade and Finance Under th e In flu en ce of O il — 1974 and E arly 1975 Foreign Trade and Exchange Rate Movements in 1975 U .S. In te r n a tio n a l Trade and F in a n cia l Developments in 1976 Free Trade: A Major Factor in U .S. Farm Income The Mechanics o f In terv en tio n in Exchange Markets The Recent U .S. Trade D e f ic it — No Cause fo r Pain Imports and Jobs — The Observed and the Unobserved O il Imports and th e F a ll o f th e D ollar Budget D e f ic it s and Trade D e f ic it s : I s There a Link? R isin g Farm Exports and In te r n a tio n a l Trade P o l ic ie s -1 0 3 - J u l. May Nov. O ct. 1963 1964 1970 1973 May 1974 Dec. 1974 May Jan. Dec. Mar. Feb. Apr. Jun. Aug. O ct. J u l. 1975 1976 1976 1977 1978 1978 1978 1978 1978 1979 UNEMPLOMCNT N ational and D is t r ic t Unemployment Teenage Unemployment High Employment Without I n fla t io n : On the Attainment of Admirable Goals The N ational Plans to Curb Unemployment and I n fla t io n I n f la t io n , Unemployment, and Hayek Unemployment Rate as an Economic In d ica to r Economic Growth and Unemployment: A R eappraisal o f the C ontinental View -1 0 4 - O ct. 1961 J u l. 1963 Sep. Apr. May Sep. 1971 1973 1975 1976 O ct. 1978 URBAN ECONOMICS Changes in Standard M etropolitan S t a t i s t i c a l Area D e fin itio n s Growth — M etropolitan v s . Nonm etropolitan Areas in th e Central M iss is sip p i V a lle y M etropolitan Area Growth: A T est o f Export Base Concepts -1 0 5 - Dec. 1963 Jan. 1969 J u l. 1970 USURY LA S W Usury Laws: Harmful When E ffe c tiv e Do F lo a tin g C e ilin g s Solve th e Usury Rate Problem? -1 0 6 - Aug. 1974 Apr. 1979 VALUE ADDED TAXES Value Added by M anufacture, C entral M iss is sip p i V a lley M etropolitan A reas, 1957 to 1964 A Value Added Tax and F actors A ffe c tin g I t s Economic Impact -1 0 7 - j„ 1964 Sep! 1973 VELOCITY OF MONEY ** Growth in the Money Supply Changes in th e V e lo c ity of Money, 1951-1962 Observed Income V e lo c ity o f Money: A M isunderstood Issu e in Monetary P o lic y Feb. Jun. 1960 1962 Aug. 1975 ** During 1960 through 1967, th ere were p e r io d ic a r t i c l e s w r itte n on current monetary d e v e lo p m e n ts. Each o f th e se a r t ic le s co n ta in s a sm all graph and a b r ie f paragraph concerning the v e lo c it y o f money WG A ES R e la tiv e Movements in Wages and P r o fits A Tax-Based Incomes P o lic y (TIP): What's I t a l l About? The Economic Consequences of Wage-Price G u id elin es Feb. 1973 Feb. 1978 Dec. 1978 WELFARE ECONOMICS N ational Income Accounting and Economic W elfare: o f GNP and M W E The W elfare C osts of I n f la t io n -n O - The Concepts Apr. 1974 Nov. 1976
@FedFRASER